Another day, another end-game scenario
July 2nd, 2009
Will it be another knife-wielding Chancellor?
I tend to make a point of looking to the First Post for particularly juicy scoops, and yet again they have delivered. Their article from ‘the Mole’ yesterday indicates that the growing feud at the top of Government is between Chancellor Alistair Darling and First Secretary of State Lord Mandelson.
Mandelson had trampled on Treasury toes by announcing that the Comprehensive Spending Review would be delayed until after the next election - the Treasury shot back that it had not yet made that decision. The issue then becomes who really makes the significant economic decisions - and a turf-war between Mandelson and Darling would be disastrous, when the Prime Minister seems determined to sound less than sure-footed with talks of “a 0% rise” at PMQs yesterday.
The Prime Minister did appear to take the side of his Business Secretary by saying that now was not the time for the CSR, and this adds to a mounting list of occasions upon which the lobby at least feel that the Chancellor has been humiliated. Paul Waugh, who since Ben Brogan moved to the Telegraph has become my favourite of the Lobby correspondents, goes further and suggests that Darling is perhaps the only senior Cabinet minister left with the motive and lack of credentialled cowardice to actually plunge the knife between the PM’s shoulderblades. (Hat-tip to ‘Maggie Thatcher Fan’ for highlighting this article)
Having survived so many aborted coups d’etat on the issue of personality, it would be perhaps ironic if the PM were to be toppled by his Chancellor over matters of economic policy. PB.com veterans will need no reminding of the parallel with Geoffrey Howe, and how damaging it can be for a Prime Minister to lose their next-door neighbour.
So, not Johnson, not Miliband, not Purnell, not Hutton - could it be Alistair Darling who will finally usher the PM out of office by force?
Morus
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This scenario is entirely believable. It’s only weakness is that it depends on the character of Mr Darling to become likely. I have seen nothing in his past or current behaviour to suggest he is anything other than a biddable poodle.
There are precious few Labour minsters who have shown any moral courage (Purnell is the only one I can think of).
To a very great extent the future of this government and therefore the country is in his hands to change. I expect no fireworks because Darling is who he is. We’ll not get a Geoffrey Howe moment unfortunately.
…that must be the longest first comment in PB history…everyone else is asleep I suppose…
Third?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jul/02/david-cameron-gay-pride-apology
Pathetic
In this heat? Not a chance.
I think the first comment is probably about right though, Darling dug in at No 11 when he was under threat last month, and if he wanted to strike it would have been the obvious time. The question is whether we’ll see a limit to Mandelson’s remit/areas of influence as an indication of Darling working behind the scenes to assert his authority on financial matters. It’s hard from past experience to imagine there being a trigger for Darling to do a Howe.
NEW SCOTTISH POLL, commissioned to mark 10 years of Scottish devolution.
Note: TNS-BMRB is the new name of TNS System Three. They are a BPC member.
TNS-BMRB/STV Politics Now
Sample size: 997
Fieldwork: 23-29 June 2009
(+/- change from TNS System Three/Sunday Herald 28 April 2009)
Holyrood - Constituency vote (FPTP)
SNP 39% (+7)
Lab 32% (-4)
Con 12% (-7)
LD 11% (+2)
oth 7% (+3)
Holyrood - Regional vote (AMS)
SNP 39% (-1)
Lab 29% (-1)
Con 10% (-3)
LD 12% (+2)
Grn 5% (+1)
Projected Number of Seats:
SNP 57 (+10)
Lab 43 (-3)
Con 11 (-6)
LD 15 (-1)
Grn 3 (+1)
Q1 Since the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999 do you think it has achieved a lot, a little or nothing at all?
A lot 20%
A little 53%
Nothing at all 15%
Don’t know 12%
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/106228-majority-of-scots-recognise-holyrood-achievements/
http://www.tns-custom.co.uk/_assets/files/VOTING_INTENTIONS_POLL.pdf
More TNS-BMRB/STV poll links:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/5712743/More-than-two-thirds-of-Scots-say-devolution-has-achieved-little.html
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/2009/07/scottish-poll-snp-maintain-massive-lead.html
http://www.snp.org/node/15456
7 - a different ’spin’ on the last set of figures
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/5712743/More-than-two-thirds-of-Scots-say-devolution-has-achieved-little.html
Darling is the key player in current events. As witnessed by his ability to derail the runaway train that is Ed Balls’ Ambition.
So he stays put in Number 11. But damn the man, he is fixated by numbers. He keeps mumbling that the economy is f*cked. The numbers - they are unimaginably bad. So what are those arch-schemers Mandelson Brown and Balls to do? They can’t move him - but they can do the next best thing. In a scheme so breathtaking in its audacity, they find a way to silence Darling.
They ban numbers.
Yep.
They’ve discovered that the currency of common sense could be damaging to Labour’s health. So they have banned the use of numbers. Or more specifically, any of those which are, would or could have been contained in the Commprehensive Spending Review. Henceforth, under Emergency Legislation rushed through, it will illegal for a white-haired man with black eyebrows to use any number between 1 and 4.3 trillion.
That is just BRILLIANT!
But what is this? Oh-o - breaking news:
Alistair Darling has shaved off his eyebrows…
8 - snap. I was a bit dissapointed that 48 of the MSP’s didn’t bother to turn up to celebrate 10 years. Must all be off on their holibags already.
By the way, ICM Research have sent me a nice e-mail apologising for the delay in their publishing the detailed datasheets of the poll BBC Scotland commissioned from them, also to mark 10 years of Scottish devolution.
Apparently the ICM IT guys are on the case today, so presumably the juicy numbers will appear here later:
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/media-centre-polls.php
In the meantime, here is the BBC document:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/30_06_09_devolution_poll.pdf
Lately there was speculation that Balls & Mandy were fighting over who could command the PM’s ear.. now they are singing from the same hymn sheet ..mmm funny that. Seems Darling is the common enemy. I very much doubt he’ll go native though, he’ll just see out his time till the GE when he may well lose his seat.
10. LTL
‘Heir’s the party?’
http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2512511/MSPs-snub-the-Queens-visit-to-the-Scottish-Parliament.html
‘MSPs of most parties snub Queen’s visit to Holyrood’
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2517670.0.MSPs_of_most_parties_snub_Queens_visit_to_Holyrood.php
MSPs ’snub’ Queen as dozens stay away
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6619104.ece
‘If Scottish MPs don’t celebrate their parliament neither should the Queen’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/alancochrane/5713596/If-Scottish-MPs-dont-celebrate-their-parliament-neither-should-the-Queen.html
This was a silly mistake by all the MSPs who failed to turn up without rock-solid excuses IMHO.
Holders of valid excuses include:
- Kilmarnock and Loudoun’s Willie Coffey who was meeting officials of drinks giant Diageo to discuss the 900 job losses announced yesterday at its Kilmarnock plant
- Parliament Minister Bruce Crawford was attending the Somme commemoration in France
- A Labour spokesman claimed… three could not make it for medical reasons
But I wonder who the Labour MSP was who couldn’t come cos he “had business at the House of Lords”?
Thanks Stewart. Maybe a certain portly chap getting measured for ermine?
14 - ignore that .. brain out of gear! Anyway at least there’s pleanty of MSM coverage.
14 - ignore that .. brain out of gear! DOH
14.
sans doute, sans doute…
By the way, The Times provides us with the full list of
porkiesexcuses:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6620464.ece
Ind: 100% absent
Grn: 50% absent
SNP: 45% absent
Lab: 37% absent
LD: 31% absent
Con: 19% absent
Darling is just a safe pair of hands… i.e. he does what he is told efficiently.
Brown sees the world through the eyes of a communist where the state is everything and only the state can provide jobs and “growth” to the people in a fair way. He said so yesterday in PMQ.
- “Lord George Foulkes - Engagement at the House of Lords”
You really could not make it up…
Victor Chandler - Edinburgh South West (incumbent: Alistair Darling MP)
Labour 1/2
Conservatives 13/8
Lib Dems 18/1
SNP 18/1
If Darling “does a Geoffrey Howe” then I’d expect that Lab 1/2 price to shorten a little.
However, in the present situation, Lab 1/2 looks like utterly dreadful value.
19 second job ?
5.30 am.. I login early..What a lovely surprise to get a hat tip on my birthday! Thank you Morus!!!. I agree with you about Paul Waugh. Ever since I encountered his blog, I have found him to be a most impressive correspondent.
Paddy Power - Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (incumbent: Gordon Brown MP)
Labour 1/20
SNP 16/1
Independent 16/1
Conservatives 100/1
Liberal Democrats 100/1
SNP at shorter odds in K&C than we are in Edinburgh SW! Shoorley shome mishtake… ?
Victor Chandler - Glasgow NE by-election
Labour 4/7
SNP 5/4
Any Independent 16/1
Lib Dems 100/1
Conservative 100/1
23 Do they really love the muppet that much in Kirkcaldy?
William Hill - Norwich N by-election
Conservative 1/6
Labour 5/1
Green 16/1
Liberal Democrats 16/1
UKIP 66/1
Happy birthday MTF - you share it with my 15 year old son and my brother.
Back on topic - I am wondering if Darling might be tempted to cause a little mischief when/if GB goes off on his holidays. Track record and all that.
25.
Not love Patrick. More like pity.
The good voters of K&C would be far better putting the poor sod (and us) out of his misery. They’d be doing him a favour.
17. Stuart Dickson.
Tories bottom in Scotland again!
(I thought you were supposed to be on holiday…
)
27
It would be ever so sweet it Brown, Mandy and Labour were brought down by Darling. The Nation would be for ever grateful. It must be a nightmare scenario in the Treasury at the moment. Those GDP figures just released were horrendous and will have further dented Govt revenues. The PSBR could even reach 200 bn?
BTW Happy birthday to your son and brother!
30 We are truly screwed. Thank you New Labour for the last 12 years. (not).
Pedantic point. As someone remarked yesterday, Howe hadn’t been Chancellor for seven years when he resigned in 1990. And Mrs. T survived, albeit seriously weakened, when her Chancellor, the “unassailable” Nigel Lawson, quit in a fury.
However, if Darling were to go, Brown would indeed be toast.
8. Hard to believe , but almost an unbiased report in Telegraph regarding Scotland.
Morning all
I don’t think Darling will quit, but if it were to happen the events of the last few weeks suggest it would not be the end game at all.
Brown has already survived events that would have ended the career of any other honourable politician; I see no reason he would not tough out this one too
28 Stuart. K&C. I thought for a bizarre moment that you were referring to Kensington & Chelsea. I suspect Gordon’s chances of getting elected there are on a par with those of Prince William entering into a civil partnership with me and me becoming the next Queen of England.
Oh dear.
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/07/lib-dem-naughtiness-of-day.html
Morning all, there’s an absolute ripper of a thunderstorm here in Newry right now! Forked lightning and thunderclaps that last for about 20 seconds! The rain is just pelting it down too, it’s childish I know but I just love seeing lightning!!
Darling has already shown that he cannot be removed. That gives him a lot of power. I think the Prince of Darkness is playing with fire, but he probably doesn’t have any other choice.
Someone like Blair however (or Cameron) would have the ability to sit down with Darling and persuade him to change his mind. For Brown, persuasion involves a photo of the wife and kids, a baseball bat and a scary knucklehead called Damien.
To be truelly damaging the blow comes best from an insider (Darling) rather than outsiders i.e Blairites (Purnall, Hutton et al). In the case of the latter Brown can always shrug it off and rely on the “Mandy Rice-Davies defence”
The Norwich N market is now on Betfair…
Change the question.
Has Darling any courage?
Of course not.
Labour had their chance to get rid of our most inept PM, but bottled it. The only way Brown will go, is if the constant attacks on his personal integrity & his repeated failed attempts to achieve lift-off, lead him to believe that he will be humiliated in the GE.
Brown is now so weak, Cameron could demand a TV debate and get it…but might it now be in Cameron’s best interest to follow the Blair line of safety first? Expectations of Brown are now so low, that a score draw would be reported as a great comeback.
What of Clegg though? If Brown wasn’t quite this bad, surely questions would be asked about this chap. Vince Cable is waiting in the wings, loved by the media & trusted by the public. Clegg oppossed a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty & can’t seem to decide whether to go after Brown or keep the Ashdown policy of equidistance. His protestations of anger, from such a nice middle class boy ring hollow…
With Ming the Merciless & Charlie Kennedy fallen, I suppose it means LibDems couldn’t afford to change leader again….
NOW I’m on holiday!
(I’d better be or the wife’ll murder me…)
For anyone who isn’t yet bored of seeing Mr Zero in action, here’s the clip.
I love the way Speaker Bercow says the PM’s answer must be heard and he then just sits down halfway through.
42. The PLP think only of personal self-survival.
This Labour Party, a party of bottlers and cowards, led by Chief Bottler and Coward Brown, would rather the country be drained of money, talent and hope than lose power in a General Election.
Our only hope is that they havn’t the bottle to deny the electorate and public an election, by staging a coup against any democracy remaining in Britain.
44 - reading through the political commentators in the papers today, there really is universal contempt for Brown in their reviews of PMQs. I guess the recess can’t come soon enough for GB…
45 It’s an interesting dilemna isn’t it? In the past all parties made at least some passing nod to the notion that they existed to make the country a better place, accordingly to one ideological strand or other.
We now have a governing party whose sole motivation is its own survival and power. The interests of the country and of the governing party have never in our history been more starkly at odds with each other.
Added to that is the complete abandonment of honour and morals. Liars, cheats, failures - they always used to resign. Today there is nothing - nothing - that would make a Labour minister resign if they didn’t want to. We are quite literally powerless to remove Brown if he doesn’t want to go (as is his party). The ‘brazen it out come what may’ culture is new.
As Sean T said the other day, we have effectively become an occupied nation.
They’ll get blown away at the GE and a fresh start of sorts can begin.
The day will come, however, when the constitutional implications of Labour’s time abusing the power structures of our democracy must be addressed. It might all happen again otherwise.
Now which individual wins the prize as worst COE?
Anthony Barber?
Dennis Healey?
Gordon Brown?
A Darling?
Choose the numpty of numpties…
Gordon “pants on fire” Brown - he can’t help it
at 7/02/2009 06:55:00 AM
Isn’t it interesting that Gordon Brown is now desperately putting out the line of “I have always told the truth”? Interesting for two reasons primarily. Firstly because the statement itself is a lie for every single bloody one of us, which makes it quite hilarious frankly.
Secondly, it’s interesting because the fact he feels the need to do interview where he insists he’s telling the truth, is because he’s finally realised that everyone thinks and knows he is a liar and if he just blusters on with his lies it just makes him look worse.
As I say though, the worst thing anyone can do, especially a politician, is tell you that they have always told the truth, because by implication they’re saying they have never ever lied, and only a complete idiot would not know that that itself has to be a lie.
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/07/gordon-pants-on-fire-brown-he-cant-help.html
45. “Our only hope is that they havn’t the bottle to deny the electorate and public an election, by staging a coup against any democracy remaining in Britain.”
I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised - they have after all spent a non-trivial amount of time over the last 12 years giving themselves the legal tools to do exactly that (Civil Contingencies Act and whatnot). Is any bookmaker offering on odds on a general election *not* taking place before June next year? Might as well make some cash out of the end of British democracy:-/
50, people wouldn’t stand for it. It’d unite all Opposition parties, the Queen and the public. Labour are incredibly stupid sometimes. They’d have to be Nero reborn to try that.
Can’t quite believe the hypocracy of the government by trying to get the public to stop racking up large debts: http://tinyurl.com/kk788f
52, if those people fall into debt the only way to get out is to increase spending, sometimes by as much as 0%. Only with a spade can you dig yourself out of a hole.
MAF - the economic historians reckon Healey did a good job, given the hand he was dealt
54, it may be impossible to ascertain how well Darling’s doing, given the fact that he’s got Brown, Balls and Mandelson to contend with. Can’t be easy being locked in a filing cabinet and only let out to enjoy the glory of the Supreme Leader’s masterful performances at the dispatch box.
When will Gordon Brown get the message that it is totally unnacceptable for powerful ministers to be unelected members of the House of Lords? I just cannot believe that someone can be made a Minister, appointed to the House of Lords and have more power than many other Ministers in the Commons. We have no right to lecture the rest of the world about democracy until this farce is ended
The major loss for the government is in the framing of the debate. It has allowed the Opposition to move it onto the public finances (”Gordon Brown’s debt”) and away from the global financial crisis (not invented here, and the need to spend to counter the recession).
As always with Number Ten, it is a self-inflicted wound, as Labour moved to fight the next election on Tory cuts versus Labour investment. This meant Labour stopped talking about the current crisis where its case is strongest.
50 The chances of Labour actually being able to stage a coup are zero. As Mao said: ‘power comes from the barrel of a gun’ - and never forget how much the armed services detest Labour. Any sniff of a real anti-democratic putsch and the boys in green would be there in 5 minutes.
A general election is an immovable object that even Gordon can’t wriggle his way out of.
48 McSnotty by a wide margin. Darling is just the patsy pretending to tidy up his lord and master’s shit.
51. They’d have to be Nero reborn to try that.
Anyone noticed if our Great Leader was musical in any way?
i am sure that Darling will do the right thing.the man is a lawyer is he not?
48. Traditionally Churchill gets the prize - mainly because *he* said he was the worst chancellor.
However his mistake was defending the Gold Standard - following traditional policy, that had worked for centuries.
52. Mortgage fiddler Mandelson lays out plans to stop people getting in too much debt. Tomorrow Amy Winehouse on the dangers of drugs.
50 - Based on the experience of the last hundred years, in which two events have taken place which caused a general election to be postponed past its alloted timeframe, I would estimate the odds of the next election taking place after June 2010 at 50/1.
58. The trouble is that our Armed Forces have never been weaker or more fractured among themselves.
I dont think the Services in the UK could launch a counter-coup, (for thats what it would amount too). As for the Queen, she now has as much actual power as the queen on my chess board. None.
Happy Birthday Maggie Thatcher Fan!
Darling has to worry about the financial markets and his reputation. If either of these factors look to him going bad because of the lack of a communicated debt reduction plan then he will act.
If not he will just put up with the interference and struggle through to the GE and his probably forced retirement.
64 Disagree. All it would take is one phone call from the COGS. A battalion could could occupy Parliament, No.10 and Whitehall in a matter of hours.
Any successful coup needs the army behind it. Or the people. Or a figurehead such as the monarchy. Labour would have all 3 implacably opposed. (And the queen is not nearly as powerless as you think - she could carry the people with a single TV appearance, for example).
66. TC
Darling must be aware he has very little chance of being re-elected, and so just how much of a fight is it worth? (to him, rather than the country).
BrianSJ, yes the fact that he is going to have to retire as an MP will lead him to think about his reputation. But he also knows he only has 10 or 11 more months of this to stagger through.
67-Nah! Do a Bucks Palace=Casa de la Moneda. That will sort that out.
Wembley Stadium=Estadio Nacional. Should sort some of the others out.
67: The Met is fully New Labour supporting. If Gordon tired his coup the coppers would be his instrument.
The army would have to fight their way into Whitehall agaisnt the Met firearms teams to prize the Dear Leader out of his bunker.
67. If a Labour coup was successful the Queen would get nowhere near a TV studio to broadcast.
Added to that the COGS might be in cahoots with the coup plotters.
The coup leaders would make certain of it’s ground before launching an anti-democratic taleover of Britain.
Of course we are only talking hypothetically.
58/64/67. No need. If the government acted that blatently against the democratic basis of the country, all the Queen would need to do would be to turn up at Westminster, fully kitted out in crown and garb and announce a dissolution. There would be nothing Brown could do about it. It’s precisely why the crown’s reserve powers exist.
On topic, a Darling resignation would IMO be more of a Lawson or Lamont moment than a Howe one: one that presaged the end of a premiership but didn’t itself deliver it. If Brown is to go before the election, it will be on his own terms; he’ll dig in if it would look like he was being forced out and Labour has shown it doesn’t have to stomach to remove him against his will.
A better tactical option would be for Darling to simply tell Brown to sod off and begin the CSR anyway.
Morning all
Re: 48 - Strange you don’t mention a certain N Lamont.
Gordon Brown can’t even tell the truth when talking about telling the truth! http://tinyurl.com/nw9qtn
72, It’s = their. sorry
71 - In all fairness I don’t think the Met firearms unit would last long against a battalion of Paras.
71 Ha Ha. The Met Firearms Officers would be mincemeat, in a hypothetical conflict with The Army. Any assault would be over in half an hour (and that’s being generous by oh, about 25 minutes). Do you really think troops trained to fight in built up areas, armed with all manner of very nasty weapons would have a problem winkling woodentops, largely tooled up with sidearms, out of Number 10?
72 All totally hypothetical, never going to happen, childish - but highly amusing.
I say it takes about 5 minutes to get from Wellington Barracks to Parliament and No.10.
If soldiers told the police to try it on if they think they’re hard enough who do you think would win?
Actually, joking apart, I would not be at all surprised if there exists a properly written up plan to restore order and power in the event of a coup - with a jazzy codename. Operation Valkyrie perhaps?
74.It was John Major that took us into the ERM against the better judgement of a by then a weakened Mrs Thatcher. Maybe that is the precedent, Major - the quiet man - able to get his own way even against a giant like Thatcher, could Darling get his way on the spending review against a, if anything even weaker PM?
Coups, occupied countries?
What’s this a “channelling the ghost of SeanT competition”
Of course any coup would be organised by the European Commission.
It seems the Montana Log Cabin Faction of the Conservative Party is in the ascendant.
75. If Robinson was more than just a sock puppet, he would have rolled off a list of ‘Brownies’. How about the election that never was and the opinion polls.
79 - ”I would not be at all surprised if there exists a properly written up plan to restore order and power in the event of a coup”
It’s called the Civil Contingencies Act.
tim, your soul was long ago sold to the enemy. I honestly don’t think you have any idea how a large part of the population feel about this government.
I think Darling may do something this summer - he’s got form, nothing to lose [even his seat is toast] and his stock would go up if he calls a spade a spade again.
I thought he was going to be Gordon’s sock-puppet and I feel he’s shown some quiet metal - refusing to leave the Treasury, refusing to back Gordon in public since the reshuffle, the honest if rather shocking assessment of the future he made on his hols last year…
67, it wouldn’t even need that much. Neither the police nor the civil service would go along with a Labour coup. A handful of senior figures in each might be politicised, but the overall institutions aren’t.
If Brown were deluded enough to attempt it, highly unlikely, Labour would be called the coup party for generations.
48. For sheer incompetence, Barber deserves the title. Never has a man been more out of his depth in office.
54. Re. Healey - game of two halves. Prior to the IMF intervention, socialist lunacy reigned at the Treasury, compounding Barber’s earlier stupidity. From 1976, under the aegis of the IMF Labour followed pretty orthodox policies, which surprisingly enough had some success..though the picture remained very mixed.
On Darling - also hopelessly out of his depth, yet I get the impression that he does at least listen to sensible advice, which is a start…
The problem with any counter-coup scenarios involving the Queen or the army is that any such action would be grossly illegal whereas what the government was doing was perfectly legal (they have after all gone to some trouble to pass the relevant laws). COGS and HM are quite likely to flinch before flouting the will of parliament in such a manner.
I hope this is all nonsense. I really do - but I can’t silence that little voice that’s saying they wouldn’t have given themselves these powers if they didn’t intend to use them. Antifrank’s 50-1 look like good odds, sadly.
The trouble for Darling is that he owes his position to Brown. Which of the other leadership contenders would want Mr Darling & his lack of communication skills as their Chancellor?
If he did resign in the short term he might be lauded, especially by the Tory press, but would the party ever forgive his gross disloyalty?
James Purnell better be planning for a career in business, his future leadership ambitions were smashed with Milliband’s bottle. So the choice for Mr Darling is a) Don’t rock the boat & hope that the Captain somehow gets them home or b) Become a modern day Fletcher Christian and be condemned to live an isolated existence, in opposition, blamed by some & unrated by most.
Today is as good as it gets for Mr Darling.
83 The CCA is precisely the opposite of that. The source of all knowledge describes it as:
The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 is a United Kingdom Act of Parliament that gives the British government wide-ranging powers in an emergency.
This is the sort of shit that Labour might try to pull in staging a coup. I certainly wouldn’t trust any politician not to abuse it.
I hope the army have an Operation Plodwhacker or something similar that they haven’t ever told the government about locked in safe.
Re: 80 - Fair enough but Major was PM when sterling was forced out of the ERM and it was Lamont who had to be the public face of this humiliation. Add to that VAT on fuel - look at the Conservative performance at Newbury in 1993 - and I think he’s a fair candidate.
I think Callaghan deserves a honourable mention as well.
78 EdP - but you’re forgetting about Bodie and Doyle - they could see off a whole regiment of paras all by thenselves
Times has a good dig at Holyrood Celebrations here.
What a lamentable affair. A day that should have been rich in ceremony, and joyful in celebration turned into a limp and vacuous occasion, with more than a third of the MSPs whose role we were meant to be applauding, simply absent. The tenth anniversary of the Scottish Parliament, snubbed by its own members, turned into an ill-mannered comment on the democracy they represent.
Quite what the Queen made of it was hard to see. Her voice was distinctly croaky, her expression inscrutable. She peered through her spectacles at the empty seats wondering, just possibly, whether she had got the date right. The Duke of Edinburgh looked round him with cheerful resignation, as if to say: you chumps have made a bit of cock-up, haven’t you?
Just about says it all on the ability of the SNP, Couldn’t oragnise a celebration in a Parliament.
Back on topic. Alistair Darling is the Downing Street equivalent of the beaten wife, too frightened and cowed by the cruel blows inflicted upon them by a violent partner, to leave. He’ll stay at Number 11, taking the punches and abuse that rain down upon him, until his eviction by the good folk of Edinburgh.
The man’s got no honour, none of them have. He’s simply there for the salary, perks and pension.
I think one oe two people have been out in the sun too much this week
Re: 47 - I read this and recall similar being written in early 1997. It’s all part of the process of transition. Those who are most angry and that’s generally those who were most enthausiastic about “New Labour” in the mid-90s, fear that some mechanism will cheat them of their “revenge”.
91. Major took us in at the wrong rate (as if there could ever be a right rate), Lamont let it be known he was singing in his bath when we were kicked out.
Lamont’s main failing was on presentation, the policies were inherited from Major, and by the time Lamont took over the press were bored with the Tories, and were looking for someone to kick.
From the day we were kicked out however the British economy grew and grew and grew….until we hit the Brown stuff.
92 A Ford Capri, 2 perms and a couple of Brownings versus a Tank? That would be compelling viewing!
91. I disagree - Lamont was a very bad chancellor PR-wise but his instincts policy-wise were mostly sound. The problems he encountered and struggled with were mostly not of his making.
97 I’m sure there was an episode where they did exactly that!!!!!!!
A coup! Has everyone just got back in from the pub LOL.
99 PS they may had had to call on Regan for backup though
100 Not really. Just the diversionary response from a mischievous audience to a posted topic/question where the answer is simply ‘No’.
The CCA allows ministers to amend or ignore any parliamentary act at whim, with the sole exception of the HRA. The CCA has to be renewed every 21 days by vote in Parliament. Except of course, that once the CCA has been invoked once, this particular requirement can then be ignored.
It’s a stupid and dangerous act that needs repealing, or at least amending to some degree.
100.
It’s probably a touch of heatstroke …..
Killjoys. Weathercock floated the notion of a coup and we ran with it for a while. That the thought was even there says something about the way this government operates.
And how many ways are there to say ‘Darling is frit’?
100 - The inhabitants of Seanstown Guy-ana are lost.
94. EdP, I used the battered wife analogy for Darling once pointing out that battered wives sometimes snap and stick the knife in.
I remember that David Herdsman wrote a good response to my comment saying why he thought Darling wouldn’t bring down Brown.
107 Sorry David Herdson not Herdsman. Not fully awake yet. Couldn’t sleep with the heat.
106 But we like Kool-Aid…
88. No - HM has it within her power to dissolve parliament and dismiss the PM / government on her own initiative, both of which would be perfectly legal actions, though usually constitutionally highly unorthodox.
Besides, in any (attempted) coup, legality tends to take third place to both credibility and brute force. Shouting ‘but you can’t do that’ rarely has an effect.
Not that it would happen.
107 - David Herdsman
Perfect.
The Tory flock marshalled by the Herdsman
Of course, if there was a coup the real disaster would be the interminable disputes with the bookies over whether stakes should be returned or whether bets stood for any eventual subsequent election.
Lovely piece on the inside front page of the Times this morning..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6619940.ece
110 “though constitutionally highly unorthodox”
Although slightly less so than Labour trying to hang onto power through abusing the CCA.
HM the Q is Top Trumps. I reckon 95%+ of the population would support her in a stand-off with Brown.
111 I like to think of him as less of a herdsman, more of a shepherd…
107…and never underestimate what a nasty piece of work Brown is. I have no proof whatsoever - but I am certain he has a little black book of horrors he can threaten all his colleagues with. I bet the badger has been visited and advised of some personal downfall that would come to be in such circumstances…
I think Brown is still feared by the PLP and cabinet. It would take a collective and mutually supportive act of defiance to oust him. That is why the plotters failed. They didn’t act together but piecemeal.
So Darling might throw a wobbly because of Mandelson?
Not because the PM has kicked the bilges out of the countrys economy.
Not because the major policies Labour have implemented over the past twelve years have failed and have been shown to have failed.
Not because ‘the Project’ has betrayed the aspirations of Labour voters on a hithertofore unbelievable scale.
Darling is piqued because Mandybum is trespassing on his turf.
Still, I don’t expect Darling to do anything…
116
I think it more likely that Peter from Putney’s post last night has resonance. I am beginning to think Gordo bought them off by saying that there would have to be an Oct election because of the state of the public finances and the truth couldnt be hidden for any longer. Hence the sudden dividing line and Gord’s reasoning that it was therefore too late to change leader. Oct election seems to be likely to me irrespective of the polls. Delaying might make the polls even worse than they are now.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196911/Trendy-teaching-producing-generation-history-numbskulls.html
Frankly, I’m stunned.
115 - Despite your elevated status in the FTSE/Numpty league, in a flock containing EdP,Oracle,Wayne and MTF you are certainly closer to the shepherd than many.
118. Interesting theory - Brown would surely welch on the deal come October, though.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3733593/its-all-backfiring-on-gordon.thtml
And not for the first time.
111 Talking of shepherding and things agricultural, shouldn’t you be out tending the lush golden acres of the Fantasy Farm Estate, AgriBot?
How’s the article going? Is there any chance we’ll get to read it this year?
120 - Ho ho ho, Mr 0% is at it again. Have you paid out on your Majority bet yet?
I don’t think you have any right to call anybody a numpty after last night fun and games!!!
August - after loss of Norwich North at Recess talk of Miliband/Johnson camps on manoeuvres. Gordon Brown pictured on beach wearing his open necked shirt, jacket, trousers and shiny brown brogues, Cameron in flowery shorts windsurfing off Cornwall.
September - will Brown be ousted at Conference?
October - after Labour hit 30% in one poll post Conference, Labour hold Glasgow seat, talk is of a November GE
November - Queens Speech Re-Launch, Darling presents PBR promising billions in spending, sterling collapses
December - Labour reach 25% in polls, talk of a February election on back of bounce
January - Will Brown go? Alan Johnson feted by Guardian commentators begging him to stand.
February - Brown re-launch in build up to Budget
March - Budget produced, public spending planned to increase in 2010/11 and beyond, I was teling the truth Brown claims
April - IMF criticises Budget, OECD & EU not happy, Gordon Brown and Ed Balls talk of prosperity, saving jobs, IHT and nasty Tories
May - Brown has to step down as leader due to “health problems” - “worked himself iinto the ground to save nation” claims Ed “sacrificed his health”. Alan Johnson delays calling election until last possible moment
June - Alan Johnson resigns as leader following Labour wipe-out.
February -
Last year lots of people were insisting Bush would never leave the White House, he’d use another 9/11 event to suspend the election, he’d summon heavily-armed fundamentalists as his shock corps, etc etc…
Drink plenty of water.
Avoid overexertion.
Don’t go out between 11 and 3.
And –
GET A BLOODY GRIP ON YOURSELVES!
123. Due to the uncertain economic climate, it will not now be possible to publish the article prior to the election…
120
111 Tim, Its my birthday today, so I will for once be polite to you. Why don’t you just **** *** You are the true “bandwidth boy” clogging up PB with your nasty class based innuendos and smears.
123: Tim’s article is like the spending review…’Now is not the time…in the midst of a recession’…..
128 - He has some new names in these parts nowadays, MAJORITY MAN or BET WELCHER being two of them.
129 - He is probably still looking up the meaning of most of the words using wikipedia after last night! Ho ho ho
128 -
Happy birthday.
Does David Mellor still send you a card?.
Where do I send the Politics for Beginners Guide?
113 That is hilariously accurate. Happy Birthday.
I wonder what the ‘redacted’ tim article will look like, with all the smears blacked out? May make MPs’ expenses appear models of transparency.
Smearbot, last night after you had to go home with your tail between your legs, did mummy have to sit with you while you cried yourself to sleep, after all the nasty boys on PB.com laughed at you making a fool of yourself?
132
send it to
Timbot
Smears Towers
Smears lane,
Smearsville.
132 - Well we know what to get you for your birthday, a dictionary!
If I were David Cameron, I would descretely offer Darling a seat in the House of Lords, in exchange for a well timed resignation. He is after all going to lose his seat at the election and will need a job, and making a former chancellor a peer would not raise many eyebrows.
Morning all. Heat getting to some of you, I see.
There are clearly very deep divisions in the cabinet, and it does look very much as though certain elements (names such as ‘Balls’ come to mind), miffed by the fact that Darling (a) dug his heels in, and (b) seems reluctant to lie quite as blatantly as some of his colleagues, are deliberately trying to undermine him. It looks a quite unstable situation, and Brown’s reshuffle has certainly not put an end to the speculation and in-fighting. As I said the other day, anyone who bet on Balls being the next Chancellor shouldn’t write off the bet quite yet.
One aspect which I think is clear is that the ‘Tory Cuts vs Labour Investment’ line is as much Mandelson’s work as Brown’s. Mandelson is of course much smarter as expressing it, whereas Brown keeps fluffing his lines and spouting palpable nonsense. But they are both using the same approach; and this is hardly surprising, since it the approach they have used for fifteen years, and one which has always worked before.
This time around, they are facing a very much smarter Conservative leadership, institutional opposition from the Bank of England and other organisations, a hostile press, and a public who (for the most part) have finally woken up to the fact that money doesn’t grow on trees.
Darling, to give him credit, seems to have a much better appreciation of the economic and political realities than his colleagues. But he is powerless to do much about it.
136. MTF.
It seems that SM3 4RS is not an assigned postcode for any part of Cheam…
132: Why would MTF want a second-hand book….
Surely on a betting site anyone who welches on a bet should be considered persona non grata and shunned entirely.
Re: 98 - I’m afraid as usual we’ll have to agree to disagree, Runnymede. I realise as a man of the Right you want to be sympathetic toward Lamont and I’m pleased you accept he was an unmitigated disaster in PR terms.
However, were he as “sound” as you claim, do you not think he would have taken an alternative approach in the days before September 16th or even on the day itself ? The fact remains he squandered billions in currency reserves in a futile attempt to defend a policy which you seem to suggest he didn’t support or believe sustainable. He presided over a huge rise in interest rates which caused considerable damage to the economy.
Perhaps, most of all, he presided over the shattering of the Conservative reputation for sound economic management. The crises of 1931, 1967 and 1976 had all occurred under Labour Governments - the events of 1992 were a wholly Conservative matter even though the policy was supported by both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
Rather like I suspect will be the case in 2010, the election of 1992 was a good one to lose.
Brown’s entire election strategy appears to be brazenly lying to the HoC/media and hiding any economic figures that contradict him, the publication of the CSR would certainly go some way to exposing this fantasy that Brown has created for himself. Darling still has a card up his sleeve, although the CSR will not now be published, if Mandelson is to be believed, the figures have been presumably collated and are in Darling’s possession along with many other nasty little surprises.
IMHO, Darling isn’t quite as spineless as some here suggest having already refused to budge from No.11 despite the concerted efforts of Brown, Balls and Mandy and by being far more candid in his interviews about the state of the economy than was comfortable for the Government; Darling may not got out with a bang ala Geoffrey Howe, but he still has the power to bring down Brown.
MTF http://tinyurl.com/mrlpkr
It has been an amusing and interesting morning.
Appropo of of post’s 51 and 59, didn’t I hear once that Old One Eye played the recorder?
Happy Birthday MTF from a fellow Cancerian!
119 That is truly shocking - I thought maybe one would be a trick question but sadly not.
Can’t name a PM from the 19th century? 88.5%
And some of these students have History A level???
144 - Well as shown yesterday, the Tories are still getting leaked info from somewhere, as Cameron waved that in-house Treasury presentation at PMQ’s. I wonder if Squeaky’s mole is busy working late and using a lot of photocopier credits at the moment, and a lot of s##t may be dumped closer to the election. Just makes you wonder about that spat about access to the database Squeaky was refused, if they have something in the pipeline for later.
148 And the McBride questions two weeks running…
Darling is being humiliated on a daily basis now. His announcements are being stolen, everyone knew that he was going to be chopped in the reshuffle even though he hadn’t really done anything wrong himself - he has nothing left to lose.
Then again, courage doesn’t seem to run through the veins of Labour MPs, judging by the recent aborted coup attempts.
145 Brown peeping out a discordant version of ‘Twinkle Twinkle Little Star’, doesn’t have quite the same historical resonance as Nero fiddling whilst Rome burns.
143 .Stodge. On the worst chancellor debate what is the metric to judge it by? On competence, capability, suitableness for the job, etc there will always be debate.
Judge on it on who left the public finances in the sorriest mess and then there is no debate but just simple hard facts. You critice Lamont for wasting billions (probably guilty as charged) in an age where the national debt heads towards 1.5 trillion.
One look at the scale of the mess and I’m afraid Sauron wins the crown by an order of magnitude or two or three.
Britain’s violent crime record is worse than any other country in the European union, it is revealed today.
Official crime figures show the UK also has a worse rate for all types of violence than the U.S. and even South Africa - widely considered one of the world’s most dangerous countries.
* The UK has the second highest overall crime rate in the EU.
* It has a higher homicide rate than most of our western European neighbours, including France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
* The UK has the fifth highest robbery rate in the EU.
* It has the fourth highest burglary rate and the highest absolute number of burglaries in the EU, with double the number of offences than recorded in Germany and France.
Tough on Crime, tough on the causes of crime! Now that 40% reduction in crime…..
143.That’s completely wrong! On White Wednesday Lamont was called to a meeting with the PM only to find Heseltine & Clarke sat there. The 4 senior ministers then agreed strategy, although Lamont was bitter that he hadn’t been given the reins to handle the crisis.
Lamont was then used as a human shield by John Major, he was kept in office to take the bad headlines, to get blamed for the recession. In reality, it was Lawson’s boom of the late 80s when he began covertly shadowing the Mark & then Major’s joining the ERM at the wrong rate, at the wrong time that did the damage.
Britain was left with a policy of much too high interest rates because we were defending Sterlings position. All this before Lamont was Chancellor.
Another great excuse to not attend the Holyrood celebrations - catching up on email
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8129979.stm
No chance of any action from Darling, just wishful thinking.
If he had any integrity he would have walked out of the Treasury within a few minutes of seeing the books, issuing a statement along the lines of:
“I may be stupid, but not stupid enough to take the flak for Jonah McBust”.
He will always be remembered as a useless, gutless, compliant “yes-man” Chancellor whose sole spark of economic genius was to flip his house 4 times to evade tax.
Meanwhile head down, mouth shut, don’t rock the boat, lift that sizeable pension (and lump sum) after the next GE and hope that no-one will notice his part in our downfall - might need another job as hyperinflation will wipe out his savings.
125. Very funny and probably accurate except for Brown quitting right at the last minute. I think he’ll still be there for the eventual defeat, if for no other reason than nobody else will want to do it - Mandy will force Brown to stick it out and face up to defeat.
Darling seems to act in a more responsible way than most of the government. I think he’ll be concerned at the economic nonsense being spouted by Brown and his new chief secretary to the treasury. If he’s made really uncomfortable by Mandelson and then asked to defend the lies then perhaps he will crack. If he did then it would surely be the end for Brown.
It seems odd to me that the press don’t seem to have been questioning the more honourable Labour ministers on some of the dodgy statements by the PM and others recently.
148
And not even the possession of leaked documents - just the possibility of more facts in the hands of the tories will have to be factored in to Labour’s calculations
151
Somehow I find it peculiarly fitting
151. Nero played the Lyre
Brown plays the Liar, quite a difference my friend.
Bye.
157 Imagine the bizarre situation if Gordon did quit and the rest of the Cabinet were left saying - you be PM, no you, not me…
143 Looking at things in perspective, the ultimate cost of Lamont’s dire currency interventions were in the low billions. Probably less than the price of Brown’s ill fated VAT cut, and a figure considerably lower than the financial loss to the UK of selling a sizeable proportion of the nations Gold reserves at the bottom of a ‘tipped off’ market.
Morning All,
FPT, someone was giving John Smith as an example of a bald bloke who would have won an election.
Not so sure, to be honest. I was distinctly unimpressed during the 2 years or so that he had as leader. Plus he only became Labour leader because his opponent had a comb-over, which is even worse than a shiny!
Rob
162 - Low billions, about the same amount Gordo’s great decision to pay our EU membership in Euros cost!
143. Stodge - as I proposed the Tory Barber as worst Chancellor it’s a bit much to claim I am talking from a purely partisan perspective.
You also need to try not to mix fact with folk memory too much. Lamont’s chancellorship actually saw interest rates fall, not rise. The barmy rate rises announced during the actual crisis itself never took effect.
The key point at the time was the ERM was preventing rates from falling much faster, and was thus delaying recovery from the recession.
The reserves stuff is a silly red herring too - a few billion of reserves wasted matters not a jot in economic terms. I hope you are not labouring under the widespread misconception that the ERM exit actually led to actual direct fiscal losses, which is nonsense.
On your other point - yes I think he did oppose the insane policy to which he tried to stick, or rather was forced to try to stick to by Major et al.
But realistically what else could he do, once the ball started rolling? He tried to argue for a change of policy and failed. If he had resigned he would have made the crisis worse. There’s a decent case for saying he should have resigned afterwards, of course.
You could also argue that he should never have accepted the job at all if he was opposed to the ERM, but that’s a big ask for any politician.
Re, the Conservatives loss of economic reputation, the whole cabinet of the time deserves to be blamed for that, but most of all Major.
Overall I think if we are judging bad chancellors we need to focus more on their actual economic record than their political images. On that basis Lamont is bad, but not the worst.
Movie-related, FPT –
– Looking forward to seeing ‘Public Enemies’ but dissatisfied with Mann’s decision to shoot using hi-def video (though ‘Zodiac’ didn’t suffer as a result of a similar decision, IMHO).
– Sigourney Weaver = Goddess. Even if she is old enough to be my father. Was watching ‘Alien’ over the weekend and the film just gets better and better.
– Any more news on the Guy Ritchie-directed Ronnie Biggs biopic? No? Nothing at all? Thank God for that!
Gordon Brown thinks he can serve an ace?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_VtzJPpPxkgw/SkvpRrBVJTI/AAAAAAAAAd4/Jv02vpLQTt8/s1600-h/murray+letter+no10.jpg
161
‘Al’ Johnson would have a head start in that discussion
On Topic, no Darling won’t weild the knife. He (along with Johnson, Hattie and Milliband) had the perfect opportunity to save the nation and the Labour Party from Brown immediatly after the local elections. Rather than resigning he chose his own personal ambition and decided he’d rather spend the next few months raking in the cash as Chancellor, than get rid of Brown. The time has now passed. Dalings role in history is set - He will now be forever the sleazy yes man who cowardly chose his own well being over that of the nation and the Labour Party.
167 I do hope that is a spoof - but knowing Gordon who can tell!
Another shoe to drop this Autumn. AIM, I think that’s what they are called, mortgages total value some where over 2 trillion dollars are to be recalibrated. Experts say defaults likely to have greater impact than sub prime. We need a strong Government with total support of the people to cope with consequences of what could be the second phase of the banking industry collapse.
166 RBH, don’t worry. You’ve got Ritchie’s version of ‘Sherlock Holmes’ to look forward to this year. It could be really funny (or dire).
119 That article is interesting although it does say that 26.7% is “just over one in five” which suggests that the mathematical competence of journalists is also on a downwards trend.
Morning all and yes the heat is clearly getting to some PBers.
MTF happy birthday, will email you.
On thread, Morus why would Darling topple Brown knowing that it would effectively trigger a GE in which he knows and everyone outside the Labour party in Edinburgh knows is going to cost him his seat.
Re the Queen at Holyrood, yes it was a damn disgrace so few turned up but considering that nearly half the SNP group and a sizeable section of the Labour group are openly Republican, why would we expect any better of them? I do wonder if all those absent without a valid excuse managed to find the time to attend the party the Queen hosted for them the other evening at Holyroodhouse?
On the Scottish poll, not worth reading. There hasn’t been a Holyrood poll in the past decade which has correctly predicted the Tory outcome of a Holyrood election within 6-10 seats. According to the polls in 2007 we were going to be left with Martin Day’s yellow taxi full of Tory MSPs. In the final event we had 17 and still beat the LibDems in terms of seats, FPTP and regional votes.
147 Plato
The nightmare in state education will soon be over. By June of next year at the latest, we’ll have a Minister of Education, responsible for both schools and universities, who actually thinks it’s his job to improve education, especially for less privileged pupils, rather than concentrating on social engineering and giving everyone prizes.
It will take five years or more to see the results, but there is hope now.
170. The Felttip pen signature is the give away!
Are members of the Cabinet incapable of telling the truth??
Jack Straw is the latest to have followed Gordon Brown’s example
over the Ronnie Biggs parole fiasco.
Mr Straw rejected a parole board recommendation that the 79-year-old be released, saying Biggs was “wholly unrepentant” about his crimes.
Michael Biggs has insisted that his father has expressed regret for his crime and vowed to keep fighting for his release.
“My father has served the same amount of time as any of the train robbers and by the Government’s rules has been rehabilitated,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
He said that Biggs had said he regretted his crime in an autobiography published in 1994.
“We are going to appeal because according to the Government my father is unrepentant about this crime,” he added. “Now, we have to continue fighting because my father has publicly said he is sorry about what has happened.”
Biggs’s legal adviser, Giovanni Di Stefano, said he was planning to launch a judicial review to try to have it overturned.
171, ah yes EdP, I can imagine it now, all too easily…
“Yer ‘aving a larf ain’tcha Watson yew slaggg, yew MUPPET!!!”
173 Are Scottish Tories more shy?
176 - Giovanni Di Stefano, now thats an interesting choice of legal representation!
Boris before he was Mayor of London relating story of how he was sent to Liverpool by Michael Howard to apologise for comments he had made about Scousers. Whilst there Ken Bigley was executed, he want to sign a book on condolence only to find it had been nicked!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rP1ZGgK_n9U&feature=related
173. “and still beat the LibDems”
Music to my ears!
“Biggs’s legal adviser, Giovanni Di Stefano”
As I recall, his real name is ‘John’ and his legal qualifications have never been verified.
Can I say that without him suing?
Not sure if Yokel is around, but I know he has been following crude oil prices closely. Saw the following and thought it might interest:
“According to BP, China consumes 250 million tonnes of oil (or oil equivalents, such as natural gas) to produce $1-trillion (U.S.) of GDP at purchasing power parity, or PPP.
The equivalent figure in the United States is 164 million tonnes. In other words, the Chinese are 54 per cent more dependent on oil to fuel their economy than the Americans.
Since the start of the year, commodities overall have climbed about 15 per cent, in good part because of Chinese stockpiling, some economists say.
Oil prices have doubled from their lows, though they are still half of their 2008 peak of $147. Again, Chinese demand seems the driver.
And just watch what happens when the U.S. economy revives.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/chinas-petroleum-bargain/article1200302/
All of which has a knock-on effect for UK inflation, of course.
Just checking my EBay listings and saw a book entitled “Redditch At War” was for sale. I had to double check in case it referred to the constituents wanting rid of Madam P0rno but no it was about the activities of the good townsfolk 1939-45
183. MM - the secondary oil shock, that i have long predicted!
Plus there is more tax on Petrol than the last peak!
coldstone - you won your FTSE bet and the RNIB box in my local has a extra £5 in it as of last night.
Tim,(aka “The Brownosed One”)
Another press bashing of the “Unellected One - MK1″ (Mandelslime being “Unellected One - MK2″, of course)
We have now seen Labour
- U Turn on the Gurkha’s
- U Turn on ID Cards
- U Turn on Royal Mail
- U Turn on the Cuts vs Spending argument
Do you know of any others coming our way, you being right in the heart (sorry mean’t a4se of things) ?
What a complete pile of useless, dead and decaying rubbish Labour have become. There will be dancing on the streets when this stench is disposed of, hopefully it will be on a week when our rubbish is collected, that way we won’t have to have the stench hanging around for another week ! urgh yuk
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23714619-details/There+will+be+spending+cuts%2C+Brown+admits+in+latest+U-turn/article.do?expand=true#StartComments
183
Depends what US investment in alternative energy sources is.
(if the US becomes less dependent on oil (as they have been threatening since 11/9/01 - assuming strategic investment began then and has not been derailed in the intervening period) then that would leave China as the major consumer. Will we see ‘oil wars’ coming from the east?)
Is Darling’s reticence yet another indicator that we’re heading for an October GE? If May 2010 were the intended date, perhaps he would be more inclined to do the deed, but on the other hand, if dissolution of Parliament is less than three months away, what would be the point?
Doubters should try imagining that an October poll is indeed planned and see how everything appears to fit in with this timetable.
187 The interesting thing is that all those U turns were done at the point where the climbdown made the Govt. look weakest - and inflicted maximum political damage. They have gained no electoral benefit whatsoever. And we still have Labour’s cuts/investment climbdown to fully shake out.
Gordon Brown is in the pay of the Tories. There is no other rational explanation…
I wonder if the California debt crisis is similar to where we’ll be soon. I suppose at least Arnie is facing up to it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8129840.stm
LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT LABOUR OUT
Rant Over - But feel better for it !
190.
I think they know the games up ?
182.
A very varied client list indeed and perhaps Jack Straw will perform a U-Turn
Notable clients that Giovanni Di Stefano has defended include: Saddam Hussein;[19] Tariq Aziz;[20] Patrick Holland;[21] Jeremy Bamber;[22] Nicholas van Hoogstraten;[23] John Gilligan;[24] Charles Bronson; [25][26] Ali Hassan al-Majid (known as Chemical Ali, whose death sentence Di Stefano is trying to overturn);[26] Gary Glitter (pop star);[27] Birgit Cunningham (on her child support payment complaints against the son of billionaire Sir Nicholas Nuttal);[28] and Ian Strachan (one of the defendants in the 2007 royal blackmail plot).[29] He has also represented Ronald Biggs (one of the Great Train Robbers) in his claims for release from prison.[30]
190
Why look for rationality?
Brown may simply be bonkers.
‘Razor Bill’ would go for that explanation.
147. Plato.
I’m embarrassed to have got only 4 out of 5 - I got the wrong battle, confusing Waterloo and Trafalgar
On a related note, I was looking at the list of PMs on the FOAK, and saw they have a list of the main events/achievements of each PM, which I thought I’d throw out here as food for thought in the perennial “what has Labour achieved?” arguments:
Blair: Independence for the Bank of England; Ecclestone tobacco controversy; Belfast Agreement; Human Rights Act; devolution to Scotland and Wales; House of Lords Reform; Minimum wage; Kosovo War; Mayor of London and Greater London Authority; War in Afghanistan; Iraq War; University tuition fees; Civil Partnership Act; 7 July 2005 London bombings; Cash for Peerages; Identity cards.
Brown: London car bombs; Glasgow Airport attack; foot-and-mouth outbreak (2007); national floods; child benefit data misplaced; Donorgate; Northern Rock; Treaty of Lisbon; 42 Days detention; 10p Tax rate; Financial crisis of 2007–2009; Parliamentary expenses scandal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom
180 - There is a delightful irony in Michael Howard sending anyone to Merseyside, given his history of sending people back to Merseyside.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2003/nov/09/uk.drugsandalcohol
As he walked away from HMP Kirkham, an open prison just outside Preston last Thursday morning, Simon Bakerman looked for all the world like any other anonymous ex-con taking his first steps of freedom. In fact, Bakerman, who had spent just over a year in jail for running an amphetemine factory at a Liverpool warehouse, is a cousin of the new Tory leader Michael Howard.
In an extraordinary coincidence, he was released just hours before Howard’s ‘coronation’ as the official leader of the opposition. His emergence into the light is set to cause deep embarrassment to the former Conservative Home Secretary.
Howard’s connection with Bakerman has dogged the senior Conservative politician since 1996, when he authorised a royal pardon for two Liverpool heroin smugglers, John Haase and Paul Bennett. The two men were released after just months of an 18-year sentence after customs officers from Merseyside contacted their trial judge saying the two men had provided useful information about drugs and arms caches. The judge, David Lynch, then took the extraordinary step of writing to Howard as Home Secretary to ask the queen to use the royal prerogative to release the men.
Of course, Howard was suckered.
Both former Tory leader Michael Howard and his successor, David Cameron, may shudder with embarrassment. Haase and Bennett duped Howard, when he was Home Secretary under Prime Minister John Major, into slashing 17 years off their 18-year prison sentences after they were caught with a huge stash of high-purity heroin. Around that time Cameron was a special adviser to Howard on Home Office policy.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/nov/23/drug-barons-haase-bennett
194. Ah, Nicholas van Hoogstraten. A million points of indie credibility to anyone who can name the song that mentions him indirectly. Without reference to wikipedia, of course.
190 There’s certainly a lot of deck-clearing going on right now -
Perhaps it’s a case of getting all the toxic stuff out of the way in one go, then a quiet recess with nothing much left to speculate on [but plenty of planning time] and WHAM GE just after conference season?
There has to be a reason for all this back-pedalling for no obvious gain.
197 To be fair, Tim, you haven’t run this story much since you bored us with it in November last year…
ARRSE unimpressed with MSPs acting like republican cretins: http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/t=127098.html
199: At a guess Charmless man by Blur?
Re: 154, 165 and others: I don’t think I ever stated that I thought Lamont was the worst Chancellor - I was merely puzzled by the fact he was not included in the early nominations.
In terms of scale, it’s hard to get past the current incumbent of No.10 in terms of the damage he has caused and while both Denis Healey and Stafford Cripps faced arguably much more severe problems, they were not personally responsible in the way Brown is.
As others argue, do you go by the economics or the politics or both ? There is an argument that Ken Clarke was a brilliant Chancellor but some will argue he merely inherited the policies that Lamont had put in place post-Black or White Wednesday while others will point out the Conservatives lost the 1997 election anyway.
How do you evaluate Healey or Jenkins or even Barber (apologies, Runnymede, but I’ve never seen you as a Heathite Tory and more a supporter of what came after) and what about Lawson or Howe ?
Ultimately, and this is in response to Runnymede’s point, the Chancellor is the publically-recognised manager of the nation’s finances and the buck (so to speak) stops with him. Of course, he is part of a Cabinet with collective responsibility etc, etc but the public perception is different.
I also think that as more power has been concentrated in the office of Prime Minister (and it’s a trait of long-serving incumbents) then the tension between No.10 and No.11 grows. Thatcher, Major and Blair all had difficult relationships with the individuals serving at No.11 as did Wilson before them.
It will be fascinating to see how the relationship between Cameron and Osborne develops once they are in Government. I wonder if George Osborne will become “Mr Nasty” to Cameron’s “Mr Nice” ? That won’t be easy for Osborne.
199/203.
I googled it, so won’t spoil the surprise. “Charmless Man” wouldd seem appropriate, but it’s not right.
On a related note, I always used to think that this song was prophetic for Blair…
199 - Sheriff Fatman
190 October 2009 GE - the perspective seen in GordoVision:
avoids unemployment reaching that toxic 3 million level - check
avoids the new VAT rise being in place - check
avoids interest rates having risen - check
avoids new Budget (and all the horrific disclosures on the true state of our finances that would entail) - check
means only a handful more PMQ’s - check
avoids the need to lose a safe Glasgow seat and give the SNP a big lift - check
oh - and it avoids Labour having time to replace Gordon Brown - check
198 van Hoogstraten = very scary man, not at all surprised he shared the lawyer as Saddam!
There was a fascinating documentary about his mausoleum - tried to find it on YouTube, funnily enough - there isn’t a single video that references him at all…
205: So did I…I wouldn’t have guess it, being a bit too young for very early 90s stuff…
199 was it by Carter USM?
206. We have a winner.
201 - It is the most foolish decision made by a Home Secretary I can think of.
Howard to this day refuses to answer questions about it.
I wonder if Dave was involved in that decision?
Worst Home Secretary ever?
My money would be on David Waddington.
Don’t know if anyone else has mentioned this - but I have just been polled by YouGov on voting intention.
“moving up in second place, behind Nicholas van whatshisface”
“6 foot 6 and 100 tons, the undisputed king of the slums, more aliases than Klaus Barbi, the master butcher of Leigh on Sea”
Carter USM really appealed to my love of awful puns.
204. Well now I think we can agree - Brown was an appalling Chancellor and deserves the overwhelming share of blame for the current mess.
He may well ultimately displace Barber too, at the top of my league of shame. It depends just how serious the structural damage to the economy proves to be, which is as yet unclear.
Ironically however, by your own reasoning I doubt Brown will be seen as a dire Chancellor by the public - rather than as a dire PM (nailed on). Darling, like Lamont, has already caught much of the flak for the consequences of decisions made by others.
207 MM - Martin’s seat timing - hmmmmm… inexplicable delay in holding by-election…
Also no PBR and no Queen’s Speech.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQZu1Ot-nEc
Good choon!:)
212. What, even more foolish than getting the tax payer to pay for your husbands porn?
Would an October GE give us time for a Lisbon referendum?
178 Plato there are parts of Scotland where someone would not admit to being a Tory. Even up here in the Highlands there are well known Tories who insist on standing as Independent councillors because they would not expect to win as Tories.
there are a couple of dozen seats in Scotland where the Tory vote will fall within the 5-10% range and frankly I admire someone in Glasgow NE who admits to being a Tory.
When I was a student I worked for a couple of years as a barman in the Fairfield Club in Govan. Its membership comprised shipyard workers in the main and the Social convenor was the Chief Shop Steward of Govan Shipyard. He literally decided whether hundreds of men worked or not in Govan. Fall out with him and someone lost his job. Someone’s wife fall out with Jimmy’s wife and her husband would lose his job.
Late one Friday night when he was half cut he came up to me and said he could not understand why he liked me. On asking why, he replied “because you are a f*cking Tory and I hate all Tories”. Remember this was within a year of Margaret Thatcher winning the 79 election so by then she hadn’t introduced many policies which alienated much of Scotland.
that attitude prevails. In West Central Scotland you will come across hundreds of self made multi millionnaires who would vote Labour even if Gordon Brown reintroduced a 99% top rate of income tax. It is tribal and class warfare dressed up as politics. That is the background from which Gordon Brown comes and explains in part his visceral hatred of Tories.
However go to the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, rural South Ayrshire, Perthshire or the Highlands or Aberdeenshire and you will struggle to find someone who admits to voting Labour. Aberdeenshire Council is a Labour free zone. In all the other councils covering these areas they are either a minority party or in opposition at best.
Until the rise to power of the SNP, how you voted in Scotland was almost totally dominated by someone’s class and/or religion. One great thing to the credit of the SNP is that it has now been as successful in attracting urban and industrial working class Roman Catholic Scots voters as it had previously been at attracting rural Tory and LibDem voters of either religion.
212 - What ridiculous rubbish. If you mean foolish in the sense of personal folly, it’s hard to criticise a Home Secretary who acts on a personal written letter of a judge and where the police investigating the matter were completely taken in. If you mean foolish in the sense of collective poor decision-making, it pales into insignificance in relation to other follies such as the Dangerous Dogs Act, the Misuse of Drugs Act and the abolition of the rule on double jeopardy.
But I suspect you just mean foolish in the sense that you’re indulging your Tory Tourette syndrome.
212 Is that a smear I see before me?
That article should be a blinder - is there a delay whilst mummy checks the spelling?
219. Probably not. It depends is any other nations are still to ratify at the time.
207. & 216.
That is precisly my thinking on the issue. They know they have lost Norwich North (They will blame expenses) anyway but the Glasgow by-election if lost would mean game over. It also means that the opportunity of an Autumn election is still there and not risk losing michael Martins former seat. In all likelyhood the Glasgow East problem is going to exist with no canvass returns or means or very limited especially since Martin was speaker!
223, Germany could be delayed for a few months. Not sure where the Czechs stands. WHat about Ireland?
Thanks for that Easterross - really interesting stuff and very helpful.
218 - Far worse.
In 1996 Howard granted Haase and Bennett the royal Prerogative of Mercy, a rare occurrence.
MI6 officer Harry Ferguson, who had originally helped Customs nail Haase in a fraught surveillance operation, said: ‘We were shocked and angry. All that hard work down the drain.’
Yet instead of going into hiding in South America, as they had promised after their release, Haase returned to Liverpool believing he had become a government-sponsored untouchable. Far from avoiding crime, he expanded his empire to include gun-running, extortion, protection rackets, kidnapping, hijacking and contract violence.
The frustrated Merseyside police launched an operation to bring him down for a second time. In 1999 Haase was jailed again for drug dealing and money-laundering. He attempted to call Howard as a witness in his second trial, prompting his barrister, Lord Carlile, now the government’s independent reviewer of terrorism laws, to resign in protest. Haase received 13 years.
93. Have to say that all parties should shoulder the blame, absolutely scandalous that we pay these clowns and they cannot even turn up for this, not as if it was scheduled recently.
Fitaloon “Just about says it all on the ability of the SNP, Couldn’t oragnise a celebration in a Parliament.”
Since it’s a Parliamentary event it’s the Presiding Officer who has responsibility.
He’s a Tory.
Coming Soon: 13 weeks with no PMQs : Relaunch time?
Newsnight last night dedicated 30 minutes to the banking crisis, it seems the Government will retain the tripartite system of bank regulation, whilst forcing banks in the good times to have a greater ratio of saving to lending. This ahead of a White Paper to be published next week. I wonder what Mr Speaker will say about another leak?
John Denham ” Labour are doomed - DOOMED”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5713722/Labour-doomed-unless-it-focuses-on-middle-classes-warns-John-Denham.html
166. “– Sigourney Weaver = Goddess. Even if she is old enough to be my father. Was watching ‘Alien’ over the weekend and the film just gets better and better.”
How come no-one ever mentions ‘Galaxy Quest’ when discussing SW?
219. Morris Dancer: Would an October GE give us time for a Lisbon referendum?
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/1212/eulisbon.html
“‘In light of the above commitments … the Irish government is committed to seeking ratification of the Lisbon Treaty by the end of the term of the current commission,’ their draft statement said.
The commission’s mandate comes up at the end of October 2009, which the leaders hope will allow the treaty to enter into force late next year.”
So presumably Ireland will have ratified by the time of an October GE. There’s still Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic to go.
207
But Labour would be out of power with control of the agenda handed to the Tories:
It will be the Tories telling the public who made the mistakes
It will be the Tories telling the public why VAT has gone back up
It will be the Tories shaping the discussion on those terrifying economic figures
And Labour will not have a dog in that fight because they will be fighting among themselves to try and save their party - even if the public were in anyway inclined to even listen to Labour’s PoV.
They are too close to the end of the parliament to jump - they might as well hang on.
Something might turn up, like video of Cameron in drag, dancing the Can-Can at a french nightclub with the rest of the shadow cabinet playing in the orchestra - but I have the feeling that the public would just smile, mutter “high spirits” and move on.
232
Drool b*****s up the keyboard
I really don’t think Tories should rush to defend Howard out of simple loyalty.
Plenty of bad legislation to his name… anyone remember the whole ‘banning of music with repetitive beats’ nonsense? If people are holding obnoxious concerts without permission just bust them for that, not pass silly laws against certain kinds of music.
227. I don’t know much about this case other than it doesn’t seem relevant for the next election or much else for that matter.
What next - don’t vote Liberal as Jeremy Thorpe was a bit dodgy ?
232 A brilliant film that I am happy to confess to watching at least 20x.
Alan Richman is a comedy genius in it.
195 - all sympathy I had for Biggs has gone in finding out who is representing him. Di Stephano was also involved in Dundee FC while being linked to Serbian war criminals - who bankrupted the club.
Story here:
http://news.scotsman.com/giovannidistefano/Giovanni-Di-Stefano-The-Truth.2469479.jp
As for Carter USM - I saw them ‘live’ at the Brixton Academy and they were about as bad as any live act could be - nice lyrics tho…
b., ‘Galaxy Quest’ certainly is a hoot, including Weaver’s wonderful, just-on-the-edge-of-total-hysteria performance during the ‘Chompers’ scene.
199 - Am I too late? It’s Sheriff Fatman by Carter: “Coming up to take the place of Nicholas van Whatsisface” etc. Great song.
219 Given the delays to Lisbon caused by recent developments in the German courts, an October GE might still allow the UK time for a referendum to be held.
I reckon there are several European leaders who know that Lisbon is very unpopular domestically - and would like nothing more than to have the British to blame for its failure…that would be a double whammy for them!
232 – Never give up, never surrender!
Sorry, just repeating what the computer just said.
235. Yerrrssss. Shows aspects of SW’s talents often over-looked.
Yummy.
244 And equally brilliant in Ghostbusters.
241 - Damn - yes, far too late. Sorry.
233 - “So presumably Ireland will have ratified by the time of an October GE.”
Ireland will have held a referendum by then, the result of that is up to the people of Ireland.
please get the lyric correct.
Now he’s moving up onto second base
behind Nicholas Van Wotsisface
Telegraph on Murray -
“Moreover, the Scot is only third English player to reach the last four of the tournament since 1968 after Henman and Roger Taylor, who reached the semis in 1970 and 1973.”
Have we got an exact date yet for the Ireland to be given the opportunity to “give the right answer” second time around?
The Japs have a Gordon Brown type politician as PM as well:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/5718286/Struggling-Japanese-PM-turns-to-comedian-for-help.html
“still hopes that some of Mr Higashikokubaru’s popularity might rub off on him.”
250 (correction) Ireland -> Irish
239 Saw Carter USM in Brum. “Ramshackle” would be the kindest thing to say about them!
249, wow! Drummer for the best band ever AND a Wimbledon semi-finalist!
247. Neil. Are you in any doubt that they will fall in line?
250. Oracle. Not as far as I know.
Tims quiet today. Maybe he is helping Gordon with another planned Monday morning relaunch MK 234352728936262,0000000000000000000000
Oh god. Brown on Murray.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2KDHVPS0ZY
250 - It will be in the first week of October - the bill hasnt been published yet so we’re not sure what day it will be.
229 Jim M nothing wrong with the arrangements, it was the leaders of the parliamentary groups who couldn’t impress upon enough of their members the importance of showing some respect for the Head of State so don’t blame a Tory because many Nats and Labour members plus the 2 plastic shoe wearing lettuce munchers are republicans.
258 With provision for it to be held again in the second week of October - in case they don’t get the right result?!?
255 - It’s not an issue of “falling in line” it’s an issue of democratically deciding whether to agree to the amendment to the Irish constitution or not.
261. The Battenburg lizards are postal voting already - it’s a done deal.
260 - No, there is no plan c, if plan b doesnt work then Ireland will not be signing up to Lisbon.
261. Neil: it’s an issue of democratically deciding whether to agree to the amendment to the Irish constitution or not.
Um, they already did that.
And since they gave the wrong answer, there needs to be a second referendum so they can fall in line.
237 - There are still some resonances.
Only this week Cameron has apologised for Section 28, which Howard as Local Govt Minister was responsible for.
If Dave was a special advisor when Howard was duped on the drugs case lets hope he’s learn’t some lessons.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jul/01/transport-east-coast-mainline-nationalised
£30bn spending gap in our transport network…
anyone get the feeling Brown is shifting money around just to stay afloat?
257.
That smile at the start! 
Brown trying to get some credit! The offer of Peerage and Sport Envoy cannot be far away if he wins!
256 - No, I think he is crying in the deep hole he dug for himself last night on here!
Talking of Carter USM, slight leap, other big band of the time EMF, obvious biggest hit had the lines,
The things, you say
Your purple prose just gives you away
The things, you say
You’re unbelievable
Remind you of anybody?
257 Poor old Murray. I feel sorry for him. All that hard work, training and effort only to have the kybosh put on his dreams of a Wimbledon title, by Jonah Brown.
268. Oracle.
I think the last word is “unelectable”…
232 Galaxy Quest is one of the DVDs that I put on on a wet, cold January Saturday evening - just the cure for seasonal downs.
Re Lisbon, with any luck President Klaus will simply sit on it until David Cameron gets elected. The Czechs don’t much like the Germans and are pretty Eurosceptic like we Brits.
Anyway I am off to have lunch with an old friend and talk about lots of dead people.
262 - The illuminati and the like are probably aware from the first referendum that applying for a postal vote is much more difficult in Ireland than it is in the UK.
264 - Yeah it’s a joke that they can be asked the same question a second time but if this time they decide to say ‘yes’ then that’s their call.
“Look, why do you have to repeat everything the computer says?”
“Because that’s what I do, OK?!”
A leaked industry memo seen by the Guardian warned of “looming spending cuts” on major transport projects after Department for Transport officials described the consequences of restoring order to public finances.
That doesn’t sound a lot like increase in spending does it!
266 - Yes, you do get the feeling that Gordo has turned in to a cross between Bernie Madoff and Allen Stanford.
Will never forget that PR stunt for the cricket that Stanford did, a glass box of supposedly $20 million, and in fact only the top few layers was actually real money.
259 Easterross, If you read fitaloon’s comment he’s saying it was the SNP who organised it.
Besides it all seems very contrived outrage to me. Have the press been taken over by the Daily Mail in the hot summer sun?
263
-!?
-!?
Naahhh….
Re: 215 - But isn’t that how politics and even life works on occasions ? One man is able to do nothing more than bask in the reflected glory of the wisdom of his predecessor while another has to strain every sinew to undo his predecessor’s folly.
If you think for example that Norman Lamont laid the foundations for the post-ERM boom, you can’t really give much credit to Ken Clarke apart from not undoing that good work by, for example, a pre-election tax giveaway but I think most people regard Clarke as a good Chancellor.
I think we can differentiate between those who used the economy as a short-term political weapon while consciously or otherwise recognising the medium and long-term damage that such policies would cause and those who found themselves the victim of cirsumstance such as the oil price shock of 1973-74.
On that basis, choosing a “best” Chancellor becomes more difficult. Since 1970, I’m left with Geoffrey Howe and not much else. Before that, I think Stafford Cripps deserves an honourable mention for wrestling with far more severe problems than any Darling or Osborne are or will ever have to face.
I think trying to find a “best Home Secretary” or “best Foreign Secretary” since 1970 would be equally challenging.
268 - Are you still trying to argue that a majority is 30% of the population?
279 - Here comes the smearbot, please check you smear database, I didn’t argue anything with you. I simply posted one definition of MAJORITY as stated by the Oxford English Dictionary.
We have now seen Labour
- U Turn on the Gurkha’s
- U Turn on ID Cards
- U Turn on Royal Mail
- U Turn on the Cuts vs Spending argument
In future Browns TV appeaarnces need to be accompanied with one of those truck warning sirens “WARNING! THIS VEHICLE IS REVERSING”
Cameron must be enjoying his retirement these days - back in the day he was running the Treasury and the Home office it appears.
279 - Isn’t that Labour’s only hope of re-election?
280 (cont) Just to remind you, what one definition of Majority is,
“the greater number.”
279 “Are you still trying to argue that a majority is 30% of the population?”
Surely, argiung that would be madness. That would be - well, the sort of argument Gordon Brown would employ…after the next election
“With my 122 MP’s, I intend to remain as Prime Minister - as leader of the majority party…”
by tim July 2nd, 2009 at 10:48 am
LOOK at ME mummy, look at me!!!!
Now timmy, I have already seen that trick and it was boring then. Go away you are boring mummy.
The TimBot really doesn’t know when to stop digging, anybody would think he really was Gordo The Great!
282 – When you have nothing current with which to smear, allude to the past and fabricate.
Socialist do like re-writing history, it’s what they do.
280 - Good
I thought for one minute you were trying to back up the idiot who was posting on here last night claiming that “most polls show a majority of Gay people would vote conservative”
282 Be fair. tim’s only point of reference is Brown, who spent years trying to run all the government departments from behind the Chancellors desk, like a hybrid of Al Capone crossed with a malevolent octopus on crack.
207 MM, I couldn’t have put it better myself - a very compelling list of reasons for an October GE which you’ve come up with there!
Add to these, all the recent “signs” et Voila, there you have it.
289 - There was one only idiot last night, that we all ended up laughing at, and it was you! You had to run away and crying yourself to sleep!
291 - Ah, but arent those “signs” only visible to those who have a financial stake in an Oct GE?! (I certainly cant see most of them.)
289 - Are you going to give us your incorrect / incomplete definition of MAJORITY again, via wikipedia? Oh how we laughed at Emperor SmearBot and his new clothes, left naked for all to see!
Reconstruction of PB.com last night, as the TimBot addresses the crowd wearing his cloak of wikipedia!
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2152/2233087919_7f25ae1389.jpg
O/T: Petrol now £1.05 at my local BP!
289 Tim, would you agree that “most polls show a plurality of Gay people would vote conservative”?
294 - I tell you what.
If you can find one poll that shows a majority of gay people saying they will vote conservative,I will buy you a BBC TV licence.
285. “As of the next election my majority will rise by 0%!”
298 - Come on Smearbot stopping making a fool of yourself again! We will all end up laughing at you like last night.
Also, not sure, which bit of “I wasn’t arguing with you” didn’t you understand, bit like your understanding of the meaning of MAJORITY. You are picking an argument with the wrong person!
Guten Morgen, Lieblings!
Anyone else noticed the Bruno film posters yet?
297 - Most recent polls show a plurality, of course.
291 But, PfP, with the caveat “seen in GordoVision”!!
Keeping Gordon as Leader may not so compelling to others… That said, no-one else has stepped up to the plate. It will be interesting for historians to debate the issue “Who was the more inept - Gordon Brown as PM - or those who would have toppled him?”
One further thought: if it is to be 2009, then why October? Can the Labour Conference really be turned into a “stand behind the Great Leader” Rally? Or has it got the potential to be a bloodbath? Why take the risk - go for a pre-Confderence early Spetember election, with most of the campaign - which Labour must be dreading - taking place during the summer holiday season when no-one much is paying attention?
Gay and lesbian voters are now more likely to vote Tory rather than Labour, a poll has suggested.
The survey of 1,800 gay men and women found 30 per cent said they intend to vote Conservative at the next general election.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/news/articles/2005-11848.html
300. Bruno posters up ? That was one of the signs of a GE in 2009 if poster sites were being booked…
Please, would someone explain to Oracle that plurality is not the same as majority.
To help you along Oracle.
Which one of these sentences is correct.
“In the recent European Elections the Conservative Party won a majority of votes cast”
“In the recent European Elections the Conservative Party won a plurality of votes cast”
291, 293 - I would be delighted if there was an October election, so far as my bank account is concerned. I think it’s unlikely, though 10/1 with Ladbrokes remains generous in my opinion.
There are only really four plausible planned election dates: October 2009, March 2010, May 2010 and June 2010. June 2010 looks very unlikely to me: it smacks of desperately clinging to power. In practice, the choice to me really seems to be between October and May. Between those two, I’d expect May to win out 4 times out of 5.
Why might we get an October election?
1) The public wants one
2) Gordon Brown likes stunts
3) For two years running, Labour have polled better in the autumn than the spring
4) The bits of the economy that matter for votes ain’t going to get any better by May 2010 and may get worse
5) This government has no real legislative programme left to justify not having an election
I shall be giving ‘Bruno’ a miss; the short clip I saw, had the same effect as seeing Gordon Brown on Youtube…..
eyeball scrub and Mind bleach, industrial strength.
307. Bruno/Brown aren’t the same person ?
301 - they have been up for a week now in Dundee on poster sites and on the city buses.
305 - Temper temper, your hot hotheadedness seems to have got the better of you. Please check the posts from last night and see if I ever mentioned anything about such things.
I simply pointed out that you used the cloak of wikipedia, and I provided one definition from the Oxford English Dictionary. That is all, nothing else. You my friend are making an idiot of yourself, as you did last night.
294 - I tell you what.
If you can find one poll that shows a majority of gay people saying they will vote conservative,I will buy you a BBC TV licence.
by tim July 2nd, 2009 at 11:28 am
tim, I thought you originally mentioned “a lot of money”. Now I realise benefits aren’t huge, but even by those standards a tv licence is not a lot of money. It must be hard getting finance in perspective when your only experience of it is benefit cheques.
306 - I tend to agree, there are a few solid reasons for holding a GE in October though on balance a 2010 election seems far more likely. My main problem is the recent trend of interpreting events (like delaying the Glasgow NE by-election) as supporting an Oct 09 GE when they really dont. In the end Brown is probably more Mr Micawber than he is Heathcliff and he’ll hang on as long as possible waiting for “something to turn up”.
Bruno on Gordon Brown:
“I’m hoping this will be the biggest movie starring a gay Austrian since Terminator 2. Talking of politicians, Gordon Brown… I mean, what is she all about? She is the gayest guy I have ever seen. Gordon, love, you need to take off those high heels and come out of that closet one of these days.”
http://entertainment.uk.msn.com/music/galleries/gallery.aspx?cp-documentid=148069278&imageindex=2
310 - OK, one more attempt.
The Oxford English Dictionary has an entry for “majority” as follows,
“the greater number.”
by Oracle July 2nd, 2009 at 12:17 am
In the European elections the Conservative Party got 28% of the vote.The largest vote.
That is not a majority.
What about relative majority? The correct description of our Westminster electoral system.
MTF - happy birthday from a fellow cancerian.
o/t I read that Michael Martin will be having a private ceremony in the HoL. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196942/Michael-Martin-peer-closed-doors.html
The by-election might be delayed further by the announcment by Diagio yesterday of job losses in the constituency.
181 Boris did go to Liverpool to apologise to Scousers but not for comments he had made personally. He was apologising for remarks made in an article published in The Spectator during his period of editorship. The article was, I believe, actually written by Simon Heffer. Boris is undoubtedly a loose cannon and as is well known frequently puts his foot in it on his own behalf. But that’s not what happened on this occasion.
I rather deplore the current fashion for people apologising for things for which they were not responsible, and especially for historicial events for which nobody still alive was responsible. It’s a nonsense which brings the whole concept of public apology into disrepute. But being big enough to apologise for the mistakes of one’s employees by accepting that the buck stops with the boss seems to me to be a good thing and I wish we saw more of it in public life. IMHO, therefore, Boris behaved well over this and I wish he had got more credit for it. But the myth of what happened is established now and will, I’m sorry to say, probably outlast the truth.
318 – Wayne, leave it to Oracle who is far nimbler in the ring and looking at a K.O. unscathed.
278. Stodge - I agree Howe deserves an honourable mention for best Chancellor and I also agree Cripps didn’t do too badly within certain parameters..although the overall framework the Labour government created for him to work in was fatally flawed.
Re, Ken Clarke he certainly inherited a good position, but to be fair he was clever enough not to make too many mistakes either, which is already a good start. Compare that with the mass of confused and contradictory tinkering we have had from Brown…
tim, put down the shovel and back away from the hole. You are really making a t1t of yourself now. It’s becoming a little bit sad. Gone is the mighty wolf of the smear pack to be replaced by the slightly whiffy, incontinent lap dog that you used to love but realise it would be kinder to put to sleep.
tim July 2nd, 2009 at 11:28 am “I tell you what. If you can find one poll that shows a majority of gay people saying they will vote conservative,I will buy you a BBC TV licence.”
Tim, I claim that tv licence fee!
http://www.miboys.com/html/38/n-42538.html
“The Conservative Party was the top party among gay voters for a future general election
A survey of PinkNews.co.uk readers has found that support for Labour has dropped dramatically since the last general election.
Thirty-seven per cent of the 270 respondents had voted for Labour in May 2005, compared with 24 per cent for Liberal Democrats and 23 per cent who voted Conservative.”
tim - the cons only got 27.7 not 28%.
McBride will be after you !
315 - Tim tim tim, you really are a bit thick aren’t you.
I wasn’t laughing at you over your spat about what proportion of the Gay community may be voting Tories. I had nothing to do with that, I never made a single post other than to correct somebody when they said would I be receiving a pay out on the bet, and I said it wasn’t my bet.
You were been your usual t##tish self, and tried to pick up somebody in a pedantic manner when they made a statement which we all knew what they really meant.
You then used a definition of majority (unsourced), which was found to be copied from wikipedia. It was incomplete and thus incorrect, which isn’t surprising as it is from wikipedia. I simply poked fun at you for a) using wikipedia rather than for instance the Oxford English Dictionary and b) for then continuing to babbler on even when you had been caught with your trousers down like the Emperor and his new clothes.
324 - Bloody hell, its like “At home with the Wiggins” in here today.
Can one of the more intelligent Tories put these twits right please.
Brown “The Unellected One Mk1″ once again hijacks a celebrity !Pretty obvious most of the country will be supporting him but at least it is something he is telling the truth on for once,
Problem is Murray has now been blessed by the Jonah - which means only one thing !
ps. Make sure you have eaten at least two hours before you watch the great Gurning Jaw.
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/pm_whole_country_behind_awesomely_skillful_murray.html
Sounds like Tim is losing it like a right Gordon Brown at PMQ’s!
tim July 2nd, 2009 at 11:58 am “Can one of the more intelligent Tories put these twits right please.”
Was your offer just a Brownie lie?
Majority:The amount or number by which one aggregate exceeds all other aggregates with which it is contrasted; especially, the number by which the votes for a successful candidate exceed those for all other candidates; as, he is elected by a majority of five hundred votes
So, it depends how you look at it…in 324 There is a MAJORITY of 13%, or 35 people.
Tim is taking the ‘greater than 50%’ view. Playing with definitions as normal.
So, in a technical term, you are both right.
321.
Yes, I couldn’t help myself though, there is nowt like a bit of “Timmy the Brownose” bashing to get you on a high !
331: However, as the other term is valid….Tim is wrong.
329.
He never had it anyway !
tim, tim, tim, it appears I was incorrect when I thought I detected the smell of cat p1ss in your presence, it is actually incontinent Yorkshire Terrier p1ss.
Take the day off regroup and come back refreshed and rejuvenated, you know it makes sense.
329 ‘Mm..Mmm…M…Mr Speaker, there will be a 0% rise in the number of smears 2009 to 2011…’
Oh dear - tim getting a real McBriding on here today.
314.
Brown Outed before the Election !! (Booted Outed, that is of course)
over 50% is an absolute majority.
In the UK, the terms plurality and majority are perfectly acceptable synonyms.
tim, you did not ask for a poll showing an absolute majority, nor define your understanding of the term. At best you should restate your requirement and note the acceptable use of the term ‘majority’, at worst you owe a TV license.
Simply restating over and over again that ‘the herd’ (or portions thereof) are wrong and you are right does not make it so.
MPs tend to defend “Majorities” do they not? Even if their total vote share is well under 50%?
Anyone else seen this….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8130298.stm
It looks like the House of Commons will have to introduce the Single Transferrable Vote in a Multi Member Constituency for their own internal elections!
339 - No, he did try to define his understand of the term Majority, last night, as he cut and past part of an entry from wikipedia!
335, Lol I nearly wet myself,
341. Your facts will get you nowhere
342 (correction) understand -> understanding
Wikipedia says (I know, I know…)
“A majority, also known as a simple majority in the U.S., is a subset of a group that is more than half of the entire group. This should not be confused with a plurality, which is a subset having the largest number of parts. A plurality is not necessarily a majority, as the largest subset may be less than half of the entire group. In British English, majority and plurality are often used as synonyms; it can also refer to the margin of vote separating the first-place finisher from the second-place finisher, so that a candidate who wins by 1000 votes may be said to have received “a majority of 1000 votes”. The term overall majority is used in British English to refer to the difference between the number of votes cast for the winner and the total number of votes cast for all other candidates.[1] The term absolute majority is used to indicate more than fifty percent of the vote.”
Bruno invades India, LOL!:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8129836.stm
If you can find one poll that shows a majority (over other parties) of gay people saying they will vote conservative,I will buy you a BBC TV licence.
There you go….fixed.
As that is an accpetable definition, certainly in this country.
Is it too late to take the credit for asking tim to define ‘majority’
“394 - Find me one poll, ever, in the UK that shows a majority of gay people planning to vote Conservative and I’ll give you lots of money.”
Just curious - what is your definition of a majority?
by Plato July 2nd, 2009 at 12:03 am
208. Would you be surprised to read that Brown considered bringing Van Hoogstraten into the government of all the talents as a junior minister responsible for housing and criminal justice?
More Labour B4llocks !!
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/ussher_i_resigned_because_i_knew_situation_was_embarassing_for_the_government.html
348 - Ha Ha.
A study of Conservative MP found a majority (over other schools) of them went to Eton
352: Laugh all you like tim..you’re still shown to be an idiot.
Just as no doubt you’ll probably find a ‘majority’ of Labour MPs went to either Oxford or Cambridge….
How very ‘of the people’ that is.
351 - She (Ussher) said she resigned as soon as questions over her expenses emerged because she “could see instantly the situation I was in was embarrassing to the government”.
Only after the exposé could she see it…. Not the sharpest pencil in the box then?
352, tim you say that like it is a bad thing. If you are an example of non Eton education thank god the next government is likely to have avoided it. Now slink off back to your basket there’s a good little Terrier.
This is good. Not if your a Brownose fan though ….. Tim Tim ….Don’t answer then …. He’s so rude !
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/simon-carr/the-sketch-matador-cameron-scores-another-hit-on-wounded-bull-1727998.html
There is a famous American proverb,
“Laugh alone and the world thinks you’re an idiot.”
Wonder how many people laugh at Smearbot Eton jokes these days?
More Media Bashing of the “Unellected One Mk1″
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article6619992.ece
Gordon the Fat Controller:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6619940.ece
353 - A Majority of the Shadow Cabinet are called David.
http://www.conservatives.com/People/Meet_the_Shadow_Cabinet.aspx
Wayne, could you cool it a bit? Your link works just as well without being uncivil.
358 - Just let it drop now. Please.
The Smearbot really is struggling today, all the people laughing at him must be effecting his performance!
Yet another illustration as to how Brown has misjudged the Public’s attitude towards Government spending :-
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article6619992.ece
(apologies if already posted)
360 - Given how often he’s come back to the Michael Howard heroin dealer story, we’ll be lucky if he’s dropped it by October 2011.
358, whoda thunkit. Yorkshire Terriers can suffer from OCD. In this case presenting as an obsessive need to search the internet for examples of Majorities. Sadly this obsessive behaviour only highlights the fact he was wrong in the first place. Hmmmmm smells of dog p1ss in here.
358 that is correct.
It is not correct that an overall or absolute majority of them are called David however.
Do you see how learning can be fun?
All very childish and abusive on here today as well as some spectacularly unlikely flights of fancy regarding forcibly holding onto power. I know this place has become increasingly Tory lately but unless you all want to end up talking to yourselves can we try for a bit more civility & objectivity please?
BREAKING NEWS….Exclusive footage of TimBot this morning
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3YU4UsjXR0
144.”IMHO, Darling isn’t quite as spineless as some here suggest having already refused to budge from No.11 despite the concerted efforts of Brown, Balls and Mandy and by being far more candid in his interviews about the state of the economy than was comfortable for the Government; Darling may not got out with a bang ala Geoffrey Howe, but he still has the power to bring down Brown.”
Simon, I agree. Darling has been quietly growing a spine over the last couple of years. When Brown became PM, and made him Chancellor, he was still the loyal friend and colleague that he had always been.
And despite realising very quickly that the 10p tax con was going to be a disaster, and working hard to try and find face saving solution before it actually hit the pay packets, he still allowed Brown too much control. And remember how Brown repaid him, the biggest insult to Darling, has to be the way that Brown imposed one loyal stodge after another in the role of Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Didn’t he trust his old friend?
But watching Darling quietly dig his heels in, and get his own way on more than one occasion has been fascinating. And he has been taking a lot of hits for bad headlines that are down to his predecessor’s poor economic management. Cannot imagine that Darling enjoys Brown and Balls attempts to carry on running the Treasury with him as their puppet, especially after they left such a gigantic mess behind.
I am going to give Darling the benefit of the doubt, I reckon in years to come, he will turn out to be the most honourable Minister. He picked his fight with Brown when the PM was at his weakest, and he won. Not many Labour politicians can say that. Unlike Milliband, Darling staying right now is probable the only ray of sunshine. Can you imagine what horrors of a scorched earth policy that Brown and Balls could have unleashed if they had got their way and Darling had been moved from his current post? Shudders. Darling may not be brilliant, but he is the best of a bad bunch, and he might just keep us afloat until the next GE.
My gut instinct, Darling desperately wants to present a CSR asap, and his colleagues Brown, Balls and Mandelson do not because of the political implications for their government at the next GE. Darling on the other hand, recognises that its vital as a means of reassuring the Markets in these volatile and uncertain economic times. And as Chancellor, he would lose the most in terms of credibility and reputation if they don’t go ahead and produce one. Irony is, that puts him in direct conflict with Brown, what would the most honest CSR do to his already damaged and credibility as PM, or previous reputation as Chancellor? No wonder relations are so poor right now.
Somewhatoff topic, but for once I’m actually looking forward to Question Time tonight. IDS, David Laws, Harriet Harman, Peter Hitchens and Jarvis Cocker. Has the potential for a storming row or two.
368. I’d be careful about confusing self-preservation with being ‘honourable’, if I were you Christina.
366 - When the Smearbot was sent to the naughty step for the day, there was some very interesting wide ranging debates from various sides, with no smearing, no insults, no nasty language. Coincidence?
Today we’ve had some pretty poor examples of TIM - Tories InTIMidating Madly.
This RoboTories pack mentality shows PB at its worst.
371 (correction) was some -> were some
363.
He can hardly rant about much:
There is so much stench coming out from No. 10 at the moment, with all that New Labour Bad Rubbish waiting to be disposed of, we will have to wait until the next election day though, until it can be finally burn’t for good !
369 I hope they bring back the cat.
375 Spice it up. Make it a tiger this week…
368 ChristinaD. Very measured and thoughful post. Thank you.
375. ‘Prison for strikers, bring back the cat…’
Yes, the abuse and repetitive posting regarding tim can be tedious. But why is it that the people who are willing to leap to his defence never criticise tim when he is indulging in repetitive smearing and lies by omission. Hopefully this series of posts may just penetrate his skull that his normal modus operandi is not acceptable. If he were to stick to posts that added not detracted to the ebb and flow perhaps people would engage with him and not counter attack him. This sort of flame war requires participants from both sides.
Re: 320 - We are indeed edging toward concensus, Runnymede. I’m sure Clarke was put under considerable pressure to produce a tax giveaway Budget in 1997 but to his eternal credit he didn’t.
As for Cripps, I suspect you’re more knowledgeable about this but the desperate financial and economic situation immediately after the war didn’t, it seems to me, give any Government much room for manoeuvre.
Like it or not, Labour decisively won in 1945 and after a shocking Conservative campaign deserved to. I’m sure with the benefit of hindsight things could have been done differently but for those of us enjoying the affluence of 2009 the conditions of the Shinwell Winter of 1946-47 will seem totally alien and I’d be fascinated to know what you think Cripps could have done given the circumstances.
372 painting Tories as some sort of herd or pack and ‘nasty’ is hardly an original viewpoint though.
Its been the staple argument of socialists for decades.
Question: once Parliament breaks up there’ll be months of not much politics. If I have the time and think I can make it interesting enough, would people want to read an article about Formula 1?
I know some people here follow it but not loads. My tipping record is not great, although if you put a fiver on everything I’d suggested the 79/1 on Button winning would be looking pretty good right now.
369.
I didn’t realise Tim was as old as that did you ?
379 don. Your comment would carry more weight if you were as critical of Tory “smearers ” on here who insult with seeming impunity.
381 Disws. Quite appropriate this morning though.
A new Twist in the Tennis Story:
http://delivernothinglabourparty.blogspot.com/
Murray is angry!
370.”368. I’d be careful about confusing self-preservation with being ‘honourable’, if I were you Christina.”
RM, can’t you be both, especially if you are still considering a political career in opposition? Forget Howe, Lamont or Lawson. Darling might just be looking at that affable, but formidable ex Chancellor who is now in the Shadow Cabinet. Despite Brown trying to take all the credit for Clarke’s sound management of the finances after the recession in the early 90’s, bet Darling wouldn’t mind a legacy that saw Osborne carrying on his tight spending restraints after a GE.
Its not in Darling’s nature to stab a colleague in the front so publicly, revenge is a dish best served cold. It just might give him the last laugh, if he goes down in history as a better Chancellor than his predecessor.
369 AndrewG - who is David Laws?
I can’t bear Jarvis Cocker - I can however understand what an unhappy childhood he must have had being saddled with a name like that.
I do hope no-one asks about his stunt with Michael Jackson.
372 Dammit man, It’s the heat…
MD that sounds like a good idea. However you need to be careful when you publish that it is not overshadowed by tim’s opus.
Jack W, you point out any obvious deliberate smears by the tories and I will join your criticism.
384 maybe. tim certainly earned some gentle ribbing today.
Those with the correct grasp of the term are certainly in the ‘majority’ - however we should avoid the temptation to waggle our willies too vigorously at one victory in a long and rather boring war.
389, don’t worry. I can always write another article about the genetic engineering necessary to create enormo-haddock, or the interstellar ballistics of giant arillery guns.
387 he is the 1950s looking guy, an orange-booker who was touted as a possible defector to the Tories - until George Osborne apparantly sked him if he was defecting rather bluntly and got told where to go.
I have a thesis on Japanese film, but it presents no betting opportunities.
I don’t credit the October election speculation - if this was a serious runner there would be no need to hold the by election now in Norwich North.
382 I only ‘follow’ F1 as I can’t be bothered to change radio stations, but an informed article on what has been going on with the power base / Max Moseley retirement [or not] and the implications of the budget cap would be fascinating.
I can’t offer an informed opinion on anything other than the genetics of cat breeding, best litter options and how to handle feline mind-games.
I doubt this subject has any betting implications
368. ChristinaD. I disagree. If Balls were Chancellor right now, he’d be doing a Darling, but in the Brownite style - smearing and briefing desperately against the PM.
One of the fundamental truths in politics is that the office changes the man, and in no role is this more true than Chancellor. The role of the Chancellor is to run the nation’s finances. It isnt to provide money for every crackpot scheme that the cabinet produces. Any Chancellor automatically moves into tightening mode in an environment like this one - as Chancellor you dont want your legacy to become the “idiot who bankrupted Britain”. I’m sure that Treasury briefing push that particular point home regularly.
Darling has made a few errors - the VAT cut should actually have been money given as tax rebates to the low paid and he’s acquiesced to some bad schemes (like the bangers for cash), policies that tend to produce less bang for buck, but he’s held the line on profligacy - although thanks to the dreadful state of public finances, holding the line isnt actually enough.
I will admit that the man can change the office as well - notably Brown - thanks to the global goldilocks economy - was able to interfere in and set targets for many other departments. He will be looked back on a particularly ignorant and stupid Chancellor.
390 don. On PB the word “smear” has been debased. It now appears to mean any political comment or disputed fact that you disagree with.
I’ll run through this thread and use the same measure that some Tory posters use of Tim.
Stay tuned.
Off to cut the hedges, then see The Enemies. Bye all
380. Stodge - yes the financial situation at the end of the war was indeed desperate and any government would have had a titanic struggle to balance reconstruction with financial stability.
But Labour certainly made the problem worse by putting too much emphasis on expanding welfare provision and too little on rebuilding the productive capacity of the economy (see C.Barnett et al. for some nice detail). That is what I meant by Cripps having to act within a framework that made things very difficult.
Other options at the time? Floating sterling was the obvious one, but was rejected for mostly political reasons - as to be fair it continued to be right up until the 1970s. That would have removed the problem of repeated balance of payments crises and helped Britain regenerate its export sector. Scaling back military spending abroad to a greater extent was another, which again was rejected mostly on political grounds.
I rather like this line: “The impending move does not mean the pandemic virus is becoming more deadly, just that it can no longer be contained.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8130097.stm
398 - Careful who you point out as Tories! Anti-government doesn’t simply equal Tory! You don’t want to be accused of “Smearing” yourself
I rather like this line: “The impending move does not mean the pandemic v1rus is becoming more deadly, just that it can no longer be contained.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8130097.stm
395. justin
True but it keeps the option open, NN will be blamed on Gibsons expenses no doubt. If Labour manged to hold on to NN then an autumn election would seem likely! I dont think they will hold it but the option is always there. If the Glasgow seat was lost it would trigger Brown meltdown IMO! I think they are waiting until after the conference. It would be to late IMO dor anyone to challange Brown. A delayed by-election also means that they can do the same as in that seat last year…….
Jack, our postings crossed over. Still off out, will come back on here later. Bye.
Afternoon all. Since there’s nothing pressing going on, can anyone tell me this: at PMQs yesterday there were 2 women either side of Mr Brown. They both looked to me like Harriet Harman! So 1st, who was the other, and 2nd, which one was Ms Harman?
The script for the next general election is written and the words are being tested in Norwich North, scene of the latest by-election campaign. When David Cameron travelled up to visit the constituency this past week, a member of his staff showed him a leaflet published by Labour. It listed the cuts that would be imposed under a Conservative government, implying that there would be virtually nothing left in Norwich once the Tory leader had wielded the axe. Cameron looked up at the aide who had shown him the leaflet and said angrily: “This is all lies. It even says we are going to take away the free TV licence for pensioners. We have never said any of this.” He paused, and then mused: “They are using Norwich as a dry run for the general election. This is what it is going to be like for months.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2009/07/brown-labour-mandelson
It would be interesting to see Cameron brandish this leaflet at PMQs and ask Gordo to endorse the contents
398. I’m sure we’ll all await your wisdom with baited breath zzzzz
405. That woman who is the olympics Minister Tessa Jowell. She is also alleged to be his social worker! Bed Time Gordon!
You can just imagine Tessa saying “Does Gordon have a sore Botty, would you like me to rub some ointment into it?”
408, don’t be silly. Balls would be jealous.
The Prime Minister produced his revolutionary idea in order to scotch David Cameron’s claim that according to the Government’s own figures, public spending will be cut after 2011.
Mr Brown rose indignantly to his feet and pointed out that on the contrary, “Total spending will continue to rise and it will be a zero per cent rise in 2012-13.”
We regret to say that the Prime Minister’s words were met with mocking laughter from Tories with an inadequate grasp of Brownian mathematics.
The fundamental axiom in Brownian mathematics is “Mr Brown is always right”, from which can be deduced a number of subsidiary axioms such as “Mr Cameron is always wrong”, “Mr Cameron is an Old Etonian”, “Old Etonians cannot add up” and “No Old Etonian could ever in a million years be worthy to black Mr Brown’s boots”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/5711932/Commons-sketch-Gordon-Brown-and-the-Amazing-Zero-Per-Cent-Rise.html
368 – ChrisD, we sing from the same hymn sheet and although runnymede makes a valid point re: honourable over self-preservation, I personally regard such things as relative and not mutually exclusive in this case. Darling may well be only the best of the bunch, only time will tell if he welds the knife voluntarily, motivated by decency or is un-intentionally goaded into it by the Rat Pack of three.
406 - a senior civil servant earlier this week described BBF as the Labour manifesto…
Say Balls becomes Chancellor. This is roughly how the first briefing would go:
“Welcome back Chancellor, it’s good to be working with you again”.
“We’ve taken the liberty of preparing some scenarios about growth and the public debt Chancellor”
“…now if you’ll turn to page 38, Chancellor, you’ll see that any attempt to increase spending or to refuse to raise taxes will lead to a gilts crisis. I believe that the Bank have already refused to countenance further support.”
“Now, if you substitute the likely economic outcomes rather than the official estimates…”
Balls “WTF! We’ve got to cut spending.”
“Yes, Minister.”
407 runnymede. “… baited breath.” Perchance that was your last breath !!
398 “PB Qualifying Smears” - First 100 posts :
9 .. 10 .. 41 .. 45 .. 47 .. 50 .. 64 .. 71 .. 84 .. 94 .
408. No doubt she tells Gordon not to play with Mandelson as he is a big boy who hurts people!
410 I love this bit
“But those of us who were lucky enough to catch a glimpse of Lord Mandelson on the 24-hour news programmes would not have had it any other way. For when it was put to the greatest spin doctor of modern times that contrary to what the Prime Minister said, capital spending will fall before the Olympics are held, Lord Mandelson replied: “It’s true that technically the Olympics aren’t taking place until 2012.”
How we admire Lord Mandelson’s use of the word “technically”: a term which exposes the sheer pedantry of those of us who fail to accept that in the Brownian world view, the Olympics have already taken place.
Lord Mandelson, whose name has so long been a byword for probity in public life, said that politicians must not try “through innuendo and smear to play the man and not the ball”, and assured us in a high-minded tone that he is “not getting into the gutter with George Osborne”.
We note that Lord Mandelson did not say he is “not getting into the yacht” with Mr Osborne, and would urge all Tories who propose to get into so much as a pedalo this summer to check who else is going to be on board. “
377.Thanks JackW. I wonder if there is now a new split developing in Downing Street, similar to that of the Blair/Brown years? It looks like Brown has had to back down on the investments vs cuts strategy, and I put that down to Darling’s growing influence in the Treasury.
We maybe don’t recognize it as such, because he does it without resorting to the kind of briefings that Brown&Co indulged in when they were at the Treasury themselves?
I thought the announcements being made by Mandelson, Balls and Brown this week very odd, especially in light of Darling’s continued silence. Quite frankly, it smells to high heaven. They must have known that they were deliberately undermining Darling’s authority, but they have made it that much harder for him to go ahead and hold that CSR? And with it, the possibility of implementing wide ranging and much more honest cuts in public spending. Are they banking him on him not having the cojones to contradict them in such a public way, especially before a GE?
That is what worries me most this week.
414 Jack W, love, Bingo is on Wednesdays…
Today is cribbage. Would you like a up of tea, love?
408. Thanks, Martin.
417 ChristinaD. I think much may be put down to the PM’s weakened position. He really has a very poor hand to play, all of his own making. In contrast the comparative power of Mandy and Darling has soared.
Compare and contrast with Cameron who bestrides the Conservative party in all matters completely unassailable and is playing his hand for the most part very deftly.
414 What’s the deal with all the random numbers? Is it a secret code?
9 .. 10 .. 41 .. 45 .. 47 .. 50 .. 64 .. 71 .. 84 .. 94
Please .. help .. matron .. has .. drugged .. me .. and .. hidden .. my .. teeth
418 MM. Lemon and no sugar ta.
413 You missed out the first exchanges:
Treasury Official: “Good Morning Minister!”
Balls: “Where is everybody?”
Treasury Official: “Away filling in their emigration papers”
Jack W - 9?
A smear? Taking the mickey about Darling’s eyebrows and banning numbers?
If that is your benchmark, then PB is destined for a humour-free future.
421 EdP. As the day progresses it’s your IQ count …. you’ve done very well by midnight !!
424 Plato. It’s the same benchmark you allow tim. Namely Zip !!
418 - I’ll have one for his nob.
414: Clearly Jack W is adrift on some island and has to input those numbers into a machine every 108 minutes to prevent the world from blowing up.
420 Jack W
Darling’s power has ’soared’ only in the sense that he can’t be sacked, but in terms of controlling what other ministers (notably Balls, but also Mandelson) are saying about financial matters, he seems to be powerless.
Whether that is personal weakness, or a politically fragile position, is hard to say. I’d suspect mainly the latter.
428 - I assumed he was tracking his heart rate when Matron comes into the room…
After two days cutting his way through the jungle in searing heat and humidity the greying slightly stooped figure of Jack W stumbled upon the remains of what was once SeansTown.
It was less than 48 hours since the ritual suicide of the leader but already the stench of decay could not be ignored.
The stragglers, the weak and the frightened emerged from the bushes as Jack W entered the clearing.
After so long being told what to think and having food provided for them, Jack could see that for the residents of SeansTown it would be a long road back. He prepared to work late into the night.
427 antifrank. You wait to asked cheeky !!
422 You’ll have Typhoo with four sugars and like it…
431 - Oi, tim, stop writing fantasy like some kind of Aldi version of Rider Haggard and get on with your article! I am sure Morus is waiting with baited breath. Well, baited something anyway
433 MM. And a door-stop chip butty ta.
425 Ha Ha. By his own definition, PB.com’s very own Smearfinder General has just smeared me. Nice one Jack!
436 EdP. You don’t do irony do you ?!?
…. Next !!
437 When did you lose your famed sense of humour?
Could all these people with baited breath tell me what bait they use and what they are hoping to catch?
435 You might eat like a builder, but that is no reason to be showing that much builder’s crack. Now - put your pyjamas on properly and get back into the Day Room…
439 I think it may mean they need worming…
Egads, quite the worst pb threat ever (apart from Chris’s excellent musings on Darling which sound just right)
Please, someone, anyone, put it out of its misery.
threat might have been thread, but on second thoughts….
442 - Nicely ironic typo (I think) in the first line there…
Seems to me that the fiscal/economic backdrop has changed so dramatically since 2007 that another CSR is vital.
444
I’d love to say it was intentional
And now for something completely different
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/5720368/Worlds-biggest-air-guitar-ensemble-record-is-broken.html
As a girl, even I crossed my legs when reading this - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5694913/Man-uses-nail-clippers-in-DIY-circumcision.html
All of the sketch writers have produced knocking copy on the Prime Minister’s woeful performance in yesterday’s PMQs and who can blame them. But Andrew Gimson’s piece in the Telegraph - thank you, Plato, for the link and for drawing it to our attention - is an absolute masterpiece. It’s very funny, it’s very shrewd and it proves, were further proof still needed, that there is simply no way back for Brown from where he now is. I really don’t see how he can possibly soldier on until next year, either. He’s become a complete laughing stock.
450 The credit for the link goes to Scott P at 410.
Darn it!
Thanks to all for the birthday greetings
Was just e mailed this joke
“At last Gordon Brown decided to throw the towel in and resign.
His cabinet colleagues decided it would be a worthy gesture to name a railway locomotive after him. So a senior ‘Sir Humphrey’ went from Whitehall to the National Railway Museum at York, to investigate the possibilities..
“They have a number of locomotives at the NRM without names,” a specially-sought consultant told the top civil servant. “Mostly freight locomotives though.”
“Oh dear, that’s not very fitting for a prime minister”, said Sir Humphrey. “How about that big green one, over there?” he said, pointing to 4472.
“That’s already got a name” said the consultant. It’s called ‘Flying Scotsman.”
“Oh. Couldn’t it be renamed?” asked Sir Humphrey. “This is a national museum after all, funded by the taxpayer.”
“I suppose it might be considered” said the consultant. “After all the LNER renamed a number of their locomotives after directors of the company, and even renamed one of them Dwight D Eisenhower.”
“That’s excellent”, said Sir Humphrey, “So that’s settled then…. let’s look at renaming 4472. But how much will it cost? We can’t spend too much, given the expenses scandal”
Well, said the consultant, “We could always just paint out the ‘F’…..”
If I was Darling I would resign.
Brown made the position of Chancellor a very powerful one and for Darling to be undermined by the Business Secretary is a very serious challenge indeed. It’s less to do with Brown’s leadership but to do with power politics- it really does look like Mandelson is running the show.
If I was Darling- why would I play third fiddle behind Mandelson and Balls??
And so another leadership crisis begins…
452 - West Sussex has never been renowned for its comedy.
417. ChristinaD
I think you are greatly overestimating the influence of Darling.
“Brown has had to back down on the investments vs cuts strategy” because Cameron has persistently attacked Brown on this and many experts (e.g. Gov B of England, IFS, OECD) have highlighted the naivety of Brown’s previous stance. It not just Darling but many other cabinet ministers that have put pressure on Brown.
I agree that Darling’s colleagues have undermined him and he may on occasion say things they don’t like but I don’t think he will rock the boat much. It’s not really compatible with his mild personality and his amicable relationship with Brown.
I’m getting really bored of threads like this.
If you think (for instance) that tim is a troll, then don’t engage, don’t respond, don’t rebut. As soon as you do, you legitimate and perpetuate the feud.
I think tim has a positive contribution to make, even if I find some of his posts fairly snide and repetitive - that said, the vitriol from the other side does a better job of justifying his less-than-constructive posts than he could ever manage.
I don’t want to get heavy-handed with moderation, but I will if the threads don’t become more constructive and interesting.
The general guideline for a comment should be “Will a significant number of people who read this find it interesting/insightful/funny/profitable?”. If the answer isn’t “yes”, you should consider not posting that comment.
Slightly O/T but strictly speaking when you say “a majority of XXX” it means over 50% otherwise you should use plurality. MPs have “majorities” but that isn’t the proportion of people who voted for them, but a margin of the plurality (or majority) over the second-placed plurality. I get that tim must be chastised for everything, but ‘bet welcher’ is fighting talk on this site.
Please can we just tone it down?
450 on a ’serious’ note - I think Gordon’s biggest problem is that the press are now after him.
This is the week that he has totally lost control - there are several commentators who are now openly calling him a liar - I can’t believe that would have ever happened if McBride was still front and centre.
The PM’s press conference started it IMO with the denial of Darling’s move.
456 - Haven’t been in for a couple of days. Has Tims article been published yet?
Serena loses first set…
124 - I missed that Oracle - did tim drop a clanger last night, do tell!
460
The majority seem to think he did.
Interesting snippet on why Mandy’s accusation fell flat and Gordo did not want to raise it…
Mr Osborne on Tuesday said that Mr Brown had blocked a Tory request for a Treasury database detailing all Government spending.
Lord Mandelson said that was a “deliberate untruth” because any such decisions were made by civil servants and not the Prime Minister.
“There is a very unattractive pattern of behaviour that is starting to emerge with George Osborne, of innuendo in pursuit of a smear,” Lord Mandelson said.
The Tories countered by revealing a private letter from Mr Brown to Mr Cameron that suggested that “requests for information about Government policies … should be dealt with at ministerial level.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/5712733/Gordon-Browns-public-spending-claims-ridiculed-by-David-Cameron.html
Why does Jack W feel he has to act as tim’s valet?
451. Nice of you to point that out, Plato. I missed Scott P’s link - sorry, Scott.
452. Slamdunk’s reported joke rather re-inforces my point that Brown has become a laughing stock. A floundering PM can survive enmity but not ridicule on the grand scale. If things carry on as they are, we can expect both Brown (Baron Bankrupt*)and Mandelson (The Demon King) to figure in pantomimes this year. That’ll do a lot for the dignity of Parliament, won’t it?
* I nearly typed ‘Baron Hard-Up’, the appropriate pantomime name, but, knowing the lamentable vulgarity of some minds on this site, thought I would be tempting providence a bit! Please, providence, don’t be tempted now.
On a different subject, does anybody know whether the Speaker of the House has any actual power other than the power of exhortation and the power of removing an individual for a specified but short amount of time? I’m wondering whether there is anything Bercow could do, in reality, about the leaks to the press issue. The press, of course, are eager to maintain the status quo. Nick Assinder’s been having a go about that this morning, I note. And there have been so many leaks since Bercow took the Chair that it’s obvious that the Government is eager to maintain the status quo, too, in addition to which they may feel they’ve bought his compliance by putting him where he now is. Perhaps, if Bercow gets tough, he may find himself reminded of that fact. But there’s an authority of Parliament issue here which goes beyond personalities and which needs addressing. What authority, other than charismatic authority, does he actually have?
new thread
397.Ken, if Balls had succeeded Darling, I would have to disagree with you. The main reason for Balls going to the Treasury, was to remove Darling before the GE. Darling was putting the UK economy before the needs of his boss and his party. In fact, it sounds like Brown and Balls had been working on a whole new economic policy, that was solely aimed at shoring up their own political positions and reputations.
We have got to remember that Balls is an integral part of the Brown years in the Treasury, and he still remains as ambitious as he is untalented, just like Brown was. And that sets him apart from any other replacement that Brown might have chosen, and none would have been so loyal, or had quite as much to lose as well.
I doubt that Darling was in on their economic policy planning meetings either, and that, I suspect is partly why we are in this investments vs cuts/no CSR mess right now.
I did post a comment about this at the time that Darling dug his heels in and refused to be moved.
455.”It not just Darling but many other cabinet ministers that have put pressure on Brown.”
SLAMDUNK, you need to go back and read the second paragraph of my post. I don’t think that Darling has developed any real influence over Brown, its Balls and Mandelson who have greatest influence over him in that sense.
But Darling has grown a spine, and its become increasingly difficult for Brown to impose his authority over the Cabinet, but especially Darling. And a weak PM vs a stronger Chancellor, will tend to give the Cabinet a bit more of a collective backbone.
Lets be honest, Milliband is much over hyped. If he had gone during the Cabinet reshuffle, it would have been very damaging for Brown, but Darling going would have been of a different scale altogether.
And remember the main reason that Brown has had to backtrack on the investment vs cuts argument with his own Cabinet, they were flatly refusing to go out and sell it to the media. They were simple not prepared to be that dishonest. But a Chancellor who refuses to come out publicly to back up a PM’s economic dividing line, trumps any other Cabinet Minister who chooses to do the same.
307 In practice, the choice to me really seems to be between October and May. Between those two, I’d expect May to win out 4 times out of 5.
antifrank - quite so, but with the bookies’ odds for these two dates being 10/1 and 0.5/1 respectively, that suggests that October ‘09 is currently rated twenty times less likely than May ‘10. That’s certainly not how I see things.
Tim
The majority of people here think you are a t*t [and just to be clear that's all definitions of majortiy, if that mekes you feel better/more pedantic]
It must be infuriating for the bunker, that the majority of us ungrateful gays wont be voting for Gordon, after all Labour has done!