Could PM Johnson deny Cameron his majority?
June 29th, 2009
Would a change give Labour more hope?
There’s a sentence in John Rentoul’s weekend piece that is worth examining. For in assessing prospect for the election Rentoul notes “I assume that the Labour Party will recover from its current trough of unpopularity, by which I mean that it replaces Brown with Alan Johnson..”
Rentoul, of course, is a Blair biographer and is no fan of Brown Central. He’s also been tipping an Alan Johnson switch-over ahead of the election for longer than almost any other pundit.
But could he be right? Could a new leader who is so different in so many ways than the incumbent make such a difference to Labour’s fortune’s. Would the act of Brown going create a mood of change that would be strong enough to impede the Tory surge?
There has been a little bit of polling that suggests that a Johnson-led Labour might do better but it’s not very convincing. A problem with surveys like this is that Johnson has a lower public profile - which is partly the product of Brown’s desire to make the big announcements - thus blocking publicity opportunities for others.
If Brown is to get his “dignified pre-general election exit” then whoever comes in will have one mighty big asset - he/she will not be Gordon Brown. The new leader would be the big story for weeks and even months.
To my mind this is how Brown got his honeymoon in July - September 2007. He was a totally different figure from Tony Blair and his high profile during that period managed to block out coverage of the Tories. Brown was the story and not Cameron. A lot of non-election campaign polling is determined by the level of news coverage. Couldn’t the same thing happen with PM Johnson who has a “back-story” that the media will love.
I also think that Johnson has a good sense of what will resonate with the public and what will not. Back in February I highlighted the then health secretary’s plan for dealing with Cameron. Accept that the Tory leader is sincere but put the focus on the rest of his party.
A two-three month Johnson new leader honeymoon before the election would be very challenging for the Tories - and remember Labour only needs to get the polling gap back into single figures and we are into hung parliament territory.
As I’ve noted on previous threads I’m not betting for or against Labour at the moment.
Mike Smithson
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No
There are two absolutely overiding themes in British politics right now: Debt / Public Spending and Honesty. Gordon Brown is woefully and irretrievably on the wrong side of both.
So imagine if Labour dump him and crown AJ. On day one he would face a huge dilemna - to break with spending or to carry on - and how to sell his decision. If he stuck with the spend, spend, spend insanity of Brown I think it would take Dave, the press and the City all of 10 minutes to convince enough voters for a big majority that this was indeed insane. AJ might look honest in his intentions but would inherit the Brown poison of financial disaster. There is no way to reconcile continued spending and dealing with debt. Trying todo so will immediately expose the speaker as a profound liar and an idiot.
OK, so what if he went with a big break from the past and admitted big cuts but with some alternative spin on the Labour agenda? Labour has been in power for 12 years and has gone through two PMs pushing its failed spend and borrow policy. How could a third unelected PM come in and say: ‘Well we’ve royally fuc*ed up the lsat 12 years and probably the next 12 with all the debt - but please give us a chance to try something different. You know you can trust us’. Laughable nonsense.
I also think a change of PM would create almost irresistable pressure for an immediate GE.
In summary - if AJ stays honest then Labour is exposed for having no credible financial options and no vision or ideology to sell. If he sticks with the current message he looks both stupid and a liar.
Labour have failed utterly in power. There is no quick fix for that. They need a long, long spell in opposition to refrom a team and to reform and sell a vision for what they stand for. Right now they have none other than lies and debt - which don’t sell well.
I’m not convinced by Johnson because seems too much of a lightweight and people will get sick of his “cheeky chappy” matey approach. He reminds me of Arthur Daley from Minder or one of those other comic cockney figures that used to predominate in the Ealing comedies of the 1950s.
I agree, however, on the general point that Labour will do better under any other leader
Not if he keeps the plan to spend our way to the IMF or to print our way to hyperinflation. The taxed classes aren’t going to put up with it.
There isn’t going to be “PM Johnson”, so the question is hippopotamusesque.
Are there any betting sites on the statistics Brown will achieve come the election in June 2010?
I’m reckoning a 20% increase in Govt spending year on year over 2009 & Govt debt as % of GDP of around 16%. Brown gets away with it as the markets know the Tories will win and bring out the axe. Brown wins either way.
It is all pretty desperate stuff from a bankrupt party lacking ideas and talent. If AJ is meant to be the answer things are really really bad.
6 I believe what is happening now is a revenge strategy from Brown. He knows the GE is lost so he is deliberately trying to queer the pitch for Dave’s incoming administration. A massive irresponsible debt escalation is a feature not a bug of current Brown thinking:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5677741/Gordon-Brown-to-keep-spending-high-despite-recession-Ed-Balls-indicates.html
Similarly he’s not trying to refrom the regulatory environment to improve regulation but merely to do his usual McBridey / Ballsey hatchet job on those who have dared oppose him:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/5664629/Instead-of-reforming-the-City-bitter-Gordon-Brown-is-settling-scores.html
Gordon Brown is pure unadulterated evil. This awful man will be subject to the most negative verdict of history of any British PM.
I think most of us accept that anyone but Brown would do better for Labour. However, as Patrick has pointed out, whatever the talents of a new leader, they inherit a poisonous mess.
Brown’s (Not Blair) bounce happened in good times, when the public could afford to throw caution to the wind and be optimistic. The situation is different today.
re 8. “Gordon Brown is pure unadulterated evil. This awful man will be subject to the most negative verdict of history of any British PM.”
So I take it from that Patrick that you are not a fan!
As a political historian himself I think that the judgement of history matters enormously to Brown. My reading of what’s happening at the moment is that he’s desperate to find a means whereby future Labour historians will give him credit for something. Once he thinks he has got that then the dignified exit looks a greater possibility.
10 Mike,
Erm….to say I am not a fan is the understatement of the century!
If Brown really, really wanted to have some sort of non-apocalyptic obituary then he should simply apologise and call an election or resign today. People might respect him for saying that he tried his best but bowed out when he thought staying was doing more harm than good. Look how positive the view of Estelle Morris is for resigning when she said ‘I’m not up to it’. If only all politicians could be as open as her.
Every day Brown pushes us further into ruin in the search for his own salvation is just hubris and will only bring a more certain nemesis. He’s sacrificing all of our future’s for his own vanity and in so doing displays nothing apart from moral bankruptcy.
10 - The last Labour PM ever might go well in the history books! Its not inconceivable for the opposition to switch to the Lib Dems.
Frankly I think Brown is utterly out of control, all Mervyn has to do is stop printing money and Brown’s Govt will be over.
10 Mike,
If Brown wanted to salvage some shreds he should simply call an election tomorrow morning and resign in the afternoon.
Right now he’s sacrificing all our futures for his own vanity. That is morally bankrupt. His obituaries will be apocalyptic.
I mentioned recently that I read alot of miltary history. I recently read Max Hastings’ Armageddon - about the battle for Germany - and am currently reading Retribution - about the end of imperial Japan. A very strong common thread is that morally bankrupt dying regimes embark upon an orgy of retributional violence and damage. I think Brown’s behaviour now is the political equivalent. He’s lashing out at us all because we hate him and he knows what the verdict of history will say.
Johnson would be hamstrung from day 1 for having admitted he wasnt up to the job of PM.
Why would Johnson want to take this on? What’s his policy and vision. I just don’t see it.
What’s Mandelson’s relationship with Johnson, he will be the kingmaker after all.
Why should Johnson want to become PM now? It is a choice of being one of the shortest serving and electorally worst PMs ever, or the man that restructured the Labour party in his image and made them electable again. It might be good for Labour to have anybody but Brown, however there isn’t much in it for whomever takes over to be his scape goat.
13. No he wouldn’t. He made that statement several years ago. He’s now been promoted to one of the great Offices of State.
John Major, if asked, would have been similarly self-effacing in 1988. Two years later he was PM…
I agree that any new leader is likely to get some sort of polling boost.
15 …and so what the PLP has decided is to let Brown sink and then start afresh after the GE. Their party and their own worthless hides are more important than the country it would seem. What moral giants they are. That’s another hundred billion or more of debt for you and me.
I think anybody in any way attached to the current regime is going to radioactive after the GE. Balls, Milliband, Johnson, Harman - the bloody lot. Labour needs a clean skin in the future. Does it have any?
Tim - Godwin’s law proven by post 12! - the silly season is really on us.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin’s_law
I’ve posted this kind of thing before, but even with Brown being very unpopular, I’m not sure that Labour should sacrifice the “experience” card in favour of “change”, since they’re going to lose “change” to voters in any case. The only way this would make sense pre-election would be as a final roll of the dice in - say - March 2010 if and when it was clear that Brown-led Labour were going to go down hard. Not sure what the practicalities of that would look like. It would be different if there was polling suggesting that the switch would make a big difference, but there isn’t.
What looks more to me like Johnson’s best shot is taking over after the election, if Labour under Brown manage to claw back to a Hung Parliament, while losing the popular vote. It’s hard to imagine the LibDems wanting to go into coalition with someone as tarnished as Brown at that point, and Gordon doesn’t seem like the right person to lead a coalition in any case. Also, Brown opposes PR for the Commons, while Johnson has been making much more positive noises. That would be the time to make the switch, I think.
Mike, there is nothing by way of a good outcome for Labour that is compatible with a Brown “dignified exit”.
It needs to have Brown slung out by the Cabinet. Whoever is to be the next Labour leader needs to stand up and say “Oi, Brown, you muppet - of course there will need to be cuts!”. And then have the Cabinet stand up behind that person and say “yeah, you muppet, Brown! Sling your hook!”
To get any credit, Labour has to sack Brown. With Brown looking undiginified, dishevelled, broken. That might just detach some of the voter’s hostility to Brown from their slightly lesser hostility to Labour. Brown in tears in the back of the car as it pulls out of Downing Street for the last time. That “Thatcher is GONE!!” moment.
But Labour shows no sign of doing that. Instead, they are going with the terminally flawed strategy of saying Labour don’t need to cut services - it is only evil Tories who make nasty cuts. The Front Bench line up to tut and cluck at PMQ’s as Cameron reads out the Times’ report of disquiet at the Cabinet meeting, backing up Brown in his fantasy reading of the way of the world. No dissent from Johnson. In fact, no public dissenters are left in power.
I still think the Tories should call a motion of no confidence in the handling of the economy. There is now a refusal by the Chancellor to open the books before the election. Labour is trying to tough it out on its lie. All of those complicit in this deception need to be nailed to that lie.
We should not forget that Alan Johnson is not going to be crowned in the same way that Brown was. This time there will be a fight with probably him, a Miliband, and Harriet Harman plus some others. The battleground will be the Labour core vote and the unions. All the publisity around this would bring back some of the core, who were going to vote Labour anyway in constituencies which did not matter, but make it even harder to attract the swing voters who decide elections. If Brown goes (and given the track record this itself is in doubt) I’d expect a caretaker figure like Staw to take the hits during the election campaign then somebody like Johnson winning after the election has been lost.
Johnson will not help, unless he quickly changes policy to rapidly reduce unemployment, and to end the assault on civil liberties.
These are the issues on which voters are deserting Labour.
19 - I don’t see any mention of the relevant words.
24 I thought about that before I posted it - and hence no direct reference (and also Japan not just the unmentionables). It’s a stupid law as it seems to suggest that anything which does actually bear a resemblance to behaviours or lessons learned from 20th century history is de facto invalid. I’d prefer if Mr Lothian would say if he disagrees that Brown is deliberately sinking us under debt then why does he disagree.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law
I think that there are a lot of people projecting things onto Johnson that simply aren’t there. A mixture of wishful thinking and desperation.
The guy simply doesn’t look like a leader with any sort of gravitas behind him. Can you imagine him hob-nobbing with Obama, or doing power-deals at the G8?
Some might (and will) say the same about Cameron, but during the last 4 years as leader of the Tory’s he’s been in a position of leadership, and shown strengh and nerve and toughness. I’m not sure Johnson ever has.
13/16. And Johnson’s musings were no more significant than Thatcher’s “I don’t think there will be a woman Prime Minister in my lifetime… I would not wish to be Prime Minister, dear. I have not enough experience for that job. The only full ministerial position I’ve held is Minister of Education and Science. Before you could even think of being Prime Minister, you’d need to have done a good deal more jobs than that.”
Two years later she was leader of the Tory Party…
Another Labour Leader would produce only a short term bounce - but unlikely to take them above 30%.
Every Labour Leader has turned out to be a failure. It isnt the Leader, it is the party and the policies. A new salesman at a used car lot doesnt change much. They are still selling rotten, unreliable cars.
27. Who’d have thought of Major as PM in 1988 - or Thatcher, for that matter, in 1974? Or Blair, in 1992?
Political history is full of “surprises”…
Mandy on Today . “being fiscally responsible is the policy of new labour”
erm…
Patrick. Number 1. Is absolutely right in his comments.
IF any of this discredited cabinet, of the worst government in living memory, take over from Brown, they are all tarred with the same brush. They have acquiesed all the Brown lies and spending policies.
Johnson is a weak, weak man who although a nice enough chap is, to boil it down, an over promoted shop steward. He will not be able to shake off all the lies and debt. HE AGREED TO IT!
So, although I do not believe that Cameron is the answer. He will win by a landslide and so we will start on another Blair/Brown journey but with the central figures being Cameron/Osborne.
Stand by for fireworks!
and confirms that spending review is after the next election!
@22: The calculation there has to be “will another unelected leader do more damage than that which will be self-inflicted during the leadership challenge.
Or do they think that they’ll manage the kind of process the Tories finally managed when electing Cameron?
Mandy is struggling a bit on Today.
30 Except Johnson isn’t a “surprise”. He’s the front runner. And after one disaster of leader who is not up to the job, I think youy are way too dismissive in suggesting that Johnson’s candour will be written off merely as modesty.
Britain needs a bloody good PM. And it needs it now. It currently has a liar and a fantasist. Does he really need replacing with someone whose prospects depend on their self-assessment proving to have been a lie?
35 - “lets stuff the bills in the drawer” time ad nauseum..
LTL. The culture of cynicism and spin in Labour is beyond repair. They will need a completely new leadership after the GE.
33 That is a disgrace. How can you govern on that basis?
16. RodC - “No he wouldn’t. He made that statement several years ago. He’s now been promoted to one of the great Offices of State.”
He made a similar statement earlier this month.
Johnson is an empty shell and so anyone who wants a change from Brown is able to project their own wishes onto him.
Can someone explain what is Johnson’s vision or plans or policies?
Can someone explain what Johnson has achieved while in government?
The only things I’ve noticed about Johnson are his repeated statements about not being good enough to be PM, his complete surrender on public sector pensions (which doesn’t suggest he’s the man to make tough decisions on public spending) and his ‘crisis, what crisis?’ attitude when half of his constituency was flooded two years ago.
If Labour want an ‘ordinary bloke’ as leader then they should go for Denham.
With its refusal to deal with the economy, Labour is violently shaking a bottle of pop - and hoping it can be passed to Cameron before they have to open it.
But a debt buyers strike going to force them - or the IMF - to have to open it. Dangerous strategy…could get messy!
The Iranian capture of the sailors and the humiliation of the Royal Navy was engineered by Labour’s policies .
39. Patrick. The way things are going they’ll also need a new membership.
Labour’s Human Rights, Health and Safety, Promoting Homosexuality, purging ‘aggressive’ commanders…this has all lead to where we are today.
Labour cannot be trusted on Defence.
Labour government puts British people in danger.
44 And they’ll need some voters too…
Labour should pray they lose the next election because no matter how bad things are right now the real pain comes later when we try to balance books.
The Naval cliche, “It takes 500yrs to build a reputation but 1 day to destroy it” was implemented by Labour.
Faced with a similar situation, Australian sailors told the Iranians to “F**k Off”.
By “stepping back from confrontation”, by “retreating” and by rolling over, Labour makes Britain looks weak, emboldens our enemies and puts ours lives in danger.
Patrick - your the guy who was talking about the board game Stalingrad the other day?
You familiar with Matrix games specifically “steel Panthers World at War” and “The operational art of war”?
Postie Johnson on Beeb One now.
On thread, no, I don’t think it would help Labour, now, any more than replacing Brian Mulroney with Kim Campbell helped the Canadian Progressive Conservatives.
13/20 The analogy is a perfectly reasonable one. Dying governments tend to pursue scorched earth strategies. Brown wants the Conservatives to inherit as awful a mess as possible.
FPT Patrick, do you honestly think that if local government workers go on strike, the public will side with them, rather than the government? At a time when private sector workers are taking pay cuts to stay in work?
My reason for believing that Joyce was wrongly executed is that he was not a British subject at the time he began broadcasting for Germany, and thus, not in breach of the 1351 Treason Act.
43/45 I think you’ve been out in the midday sun a little early Al Fresco.
42 The only thing that’s preventing a debt-buyers’ strike at the moment is the expectation that there’ll soon be a change of government.
A lot of people seem to be assuming that Brown will be gone before the next election. However, there’s an alternate scenario, which I wouldn’t mind taking a punt on. Picture this…
It’s the morning 4 June 2010 - the day after the General Election (held on the very last day possible). Brown has clung onto the leadership and the polling has obstinately refused to budge. David Cameron has just been declared Prime Minister, with a majority of 80.
Brown has been invisible for most of the morning, but Adam Boulton finally manages to grab him outside of Parliament. “What message”, asks Mr. Boulton, “do you think the next leader of the Labour Party needs to take from this?”
“What do you mean?” replies Mr. Brown, “There’s no vacancy for that job.”
Could he do it? Would he want to? It’s become a bit of a tradition in recent years for the leader of the losing party in a general election to resign. Kinnock in ‘92, Major in ‘97, Hague in ‘01, Howard in ‘05. However, if you look back further than this, the pattern breaks down and we see plenty of leaders who tried to pick themselves and their party up after an electoral drubbing.
Despite all the plots (and his dismal performance as PM), Brown has proven remarkably difficult to oust, while his colleagues have proven singularly lacking in the spine required for a successful putsch. Would this necessarily change after an election defeat? Would leadership competitors show the same “appetite” for power, faced with the prospect of becoming Labour’s William Hague? With Labour given free reign to voice its internal feuds and dissents after an election, would it ever manage to rally behind a single candidate to oust Brown? Would the Brownite, convinced that their man had been undermined throughout his time as PM, ever acquiesce to a Blairite candidate? Would the Blairites, having seen their 3-times election winner ousted by Brownite plots, ever support one of Brown’s acolytes? Would anybody but his own mother ever support Ed Balls?
Why do people refer to Johnson as ‘postie’?
He became a full time union official in the mid 80s and even before that spent much of his time on union or Labour business.
I bet he’s spent less than 10 actual work years working for the Royal Mail.
What sort of postal work did he do in any case? Did he actually deliver the mail or was he a sorting office type?
45. Promoting homosexuality?
30 - A small boost for sure but 5 points??
And come the election “5 more years” not that many gonig to be buying that line
6…if you wish to profit from your predictions,open yourself a spread betting account and start selling Sterling.
“Patrick, do you honestly think that if local government workers go on strike, the public will side with them, rather than the government? At a time when private sector workers are taking pay cuts to stay in work?”
West Ham Patrick should actually look forward to a review of local governement finances. As he is someone who, from what I gather, does a proper job and is low paid he should be delighted when the axe falls on the overpaid non-job crowd.
Do you say the same about the relatives of the hostages held in Iran? Or the hostages murdered in Iraq?
Labour doesnt care.
You dont care, clearly. You feel safe, why should you care about Britains security. Britains security is as relevent to you as Britain’s future.
53. Quick bit of googling say Postman for about 10 years before becoming full time union official in 87 and elected in 97. Mentioned as being on various union committees before that but unspecific as to workload.
52 At what point does that become pro-active - ie could the debt buyers force that change, making the election sooner rather than later?
48 Very true - but the unforgivably cynical Labour betrayal of the military is their happiness to abuse them for purely political ends. OK, your policy is to go to Iraq / Afghanistan - well give soldiers the helicopters, the vehicles, etc that they need. Lives have been squandered.
I have a fair few army mates - they all hate Labour with a passion because of the ‘couldn’t care less’ attitude (and it’s kit more than accommodation that irks - you can live in a shitty barracks but you can’t live in Afghanistan without helicopters or transport).
Perhaps the crowning act of contempt was Brown’s trip to visit the troops on the first day of the Tory party conference. The man simply does not understand the concept of shame. He has no moral compass. This blatant act sparked an outcry and really changed the media agenda. It was only the next day that Osborne killed Brown with IHT and then Brown bottled the election.
I think I just heard Eamon Holmes on Sky say ‘The businiess secretary lies about plants to sell off Royal Mail…’ Mandy is up for interview next.
plants…plans
61 I think you would have to search long and hard to find a soldier who plans to vote Labour next time.
57 Most local government workers are not feather-bedded (nor are they badly treated as the unions like to claim). The problem with local government (and other public sector organisations) is that it’s extremely difficult to sack incompetent people, due to their contracts, and the high level of unionisation within the workforce. It’s easier for managers to offer a bad employee early retirement, or tolerate a bogus sickness absence.
However, there’s absolutely no doubt who the voters would side with if they were to strike against an incoming Conservative government.
Those listening to Today may not have heard the discussion on R5 about the Queen and Sean Connery sending good wishes to Andy Murray before today’s match. Nicky Campbell “..and he has received a signed photo from Gordon Brown, so it is not all good news then…” !
60 That could happen at any point, I suppose. There’s no doubt that debt-buyers would regard a Labour victory as the riskier option now.
65 LOL.
Most of the substantive replies on the thread essentially say “I hate Labour” (followed by further posts from the same guys saying the same thing a few posts later), which doesn’t cast much light - I dare say that if we were led by the Archangel Gabriel we would still have difficulty in getting the support of Patrick and Al Fresco.
I’m constrained in what I say since this is a predominantly hostile public forum. However, a few points. We have three interlocking problems at the moment. The least problematic politically, in many ways, is the objective one of the recession/debt and expenses issues - because the public is dubious whether either party has satisfactory answers. They think the Tories might be less bad than they think we are, but they don’t actually think they’d be much good. There’s scope for looking better than that. (I’m not wasting time arguing the point that we’re much better already in reality - many people here will disagree, and that won’t go anyhwere useful.)
Second, we need to remind people of the positive reasons for voting Labour. They haven’t gone away (cf. my article of a couple of months ago), but the focus on the twin problems above is making it hard to get a hearing. That, much more than any leadership issue, is demoralising for supporters.
The third issue is perceptions of the leadership, and an argument for change at some point is that natural curiosity ’so what’s this new guy like then?’) would give a hearing on both of the above: it’d be the main story for a month or two. But I see no reason to do it unless we planned to have an election a couple of months later to reap the benefit of that. It won’t, therefore, happen this year.
Mandelson on Today was very interesting. Labour haven’t only pushed back the spending review they are dismissing their own economic projections from the budget. Mandelson dismissed the figures that lead to the 7%/10% argument as ’speculative’. Evan Davis pointed out that all projections are speculative, but Mandelson dismissed that point as well.
Labour’s pre-election plan seems to be:
a) Don’t do the books - the spending review.
b) Ignore the forecasts you don’t like - the budget.
c) Spend, spend, spend.
d) F*ck up the economy.
Nothing much to add to Mikes post.
Although neither have most of those who have poster already.
So I’ll just join in.
Dave is great.
Labour are crap.
Even the Mullahs hate Labour.
Dave is great.
69, Cameron should press Brown both on misleading statements and on the scorched earth economic policy Labour are following.
Nick, I’d prefer to say that pb.com is this is a predominantly critical public forum, rather than hostile. Critical examination of Labour’s position has some benefit in a betting forum. Hostility ? Not so much…
21 - I agree with your first paragraph, but it all depends on the economy. Labour appear to be banking a lot on an economic recovery either at the end of this year or beginning of the next.
If the economy comes out of recession and there are real signs that things are moving in the right direction (i.e. not just bumbling along at the bottom just above recession for months on end) then a) Brown will claim the credit and this will have some force with many people and b) the budget numbers will look a bit better and Labour might plausibly say that there shouldn’t need to be any cuts in spending (only the evil Tories would do such a thing).
If such a scenario existed before say March 2010 then perhaps Brown will turn round and say “ok, my work here is done, time for me to take my expertise somewhere else”.
Otherwise, Brown will have to stay because the “economy” and “experience” cards are his aces and Labour would still need them if the economy is continuing to perform below expectations.
70 “Dave is great.
Labour are crap.”
Now, if only you meant that….
71. This isn’t even a scorched Earth policy, that would imply some planning and forecasting to calibrate the scorchiness of your actions. Labour are flying blind, they don’t like the results of the forecasts they have so they are ignoring them, and they are not going to make any more before the election.
70 You’re learning.
72 MM. Have you read upthread. Vastly inflated critisism masked as fact. There is much to be critical of this Labour government but some of the comments verge on the hysterical.
&2 - The biggest news affecting betting last week was the Conservative Party “announcing” that its scrutiny panel had finished sitting and no one was to be disciplined.
I’m surprised theres been no thread on that.
I realise most of the posters on here are uncomfortable with the idea that all Shadow Ministers remain in place, but think it would be a valid thread as it seems to have been rather overlooked.
Reading between the lines on Rt Hon NP’s post, he seems to accept that Brown is a problem, and feels that changing a leader just before an election would make sense.
Nice to see we are all in agreement.
NPMP. Well you’re right that nothing could persude me to vote Labour.
I agree with MM that the criticisms are based upon examination of the facts - indeed I said recently that pre 2003 you guys were quiet livable with.
Out of interst, where do you personally stand on the issue of debt? Do you accept that spend, spend, spend is going to make this a whole lot worse or not? Do you personally believe your party and its leader are being honest about spending, tax and debt?
Morning all, silly season is upon us I see, “PM Johnson”? The chap is decent enough but way out of his depth as Home Secretary as it is, let alone PM. For the sake of hypothetical argument however, if he won a leadership contest, if he dumped Labour’s more authoritarian proposals, if he got to grips with Labour splits and sacked a few of the crooks and if there were real identifiable ‘green shoots’ of recovery, then maybe there is a small chance of a poll boost.
Cameron will not be loosing too much sleep over such a scenario, Brown will not go quietly and I suspect would have few qualms in spiking Johnson’s bid before the starting pistol was fired.
76 - I also think that it is clear that the Mullahs would not have acted against the British Embassy if Dave was in charge.
You think they didn’t see him parachute into Georgia?
Those who put this down to Britains past relationship with Iran are purely trying to distract from the greatness of Dave.
re 68. Nick - when you started posting here at the end of 2004 it was a predominately Labour forum. There were very few Tory voices and quite a number of Lib Dems.
Those supporting the party that’s winning seem to predominate and that inevitably will always be so.
Shock horror, I second tim’s wish (at 78) for a thread on shadow ministers being exhonerated.
I also agree with his comment @ 70
50. Sean - Joyce had obtained a British passpotr for himself, albeit by deception, and this was valid when he began broadcasting. On this basis, he was convicted. Poetic justice, nicht wahr?
78 Why don’t you write an article on it, and submit it to Mike?
Alan Johnson will soon need to comment on Labour’s spending plans. He can either follow the leader’s line or be honest. Neither would be conducive to an orderly succession followed by a polling boost.
70 Its the same mantra every day, they all love Dave and hate Brown.
That Patrick bloke tells us in every sentence.
85 Pretty tenuous, IMHO. Some people with British passports were interned as aliens in WWII. I shed no tears for the man, but I doubt he’d have been convicted had the trial taken place a couple of years later.
I would expect Johnson to get a honeymoon jump in polls - question then is if that is actually converted to votes; people might well have good feelings about him but faced with five more years of Labour, lack of detail from Labour on their plans and same old faces, would they actually vote Labour?
Then what does Johnson stand for? He is a “bloke” unlike Brown, people can relate to him but otherwise he is even more of a blank canvas than was Brown - I remember asking Roger what exactly Brown was going to do and the answer turned out to be not much. What will PM Johnson, not leader of any faction, with little other than media support (no signs of a Johnson gang), actually change?
Alan Johnson becomes PM =
I think the media has moved on from this now - they realise it is not going to happen!
Labour missed the chance to stab Brown in the back and install someone who may mitigate Labour defeat. It is a bit naive for Labour or some commentators to think the Tories will sit back and not attack a tatical Labour leadership change. Labour sealed its fate a month ago - tough shit but electorally they will be following Michael Jackson a year from now!
Labour have allowed one eyed idiot who is systermatically conducting a scorched earth policy on the public finances more time to screw things up. A change to johnson would be a change from a one eyed idiot to an out of his depth idiot!
Brown and Johnson are two cheeks of the same arse!
http://delivernothinglabourparty.blogspot.com/2009/06/ywo-cheeks-of-same-arse.html
88 Dez. Actually I don’t love Dave as I suspect he’ll end up being half hearted once elected. The Tories still have a long way to come. And tim is right that their expenses issues should not be laid to rest. He SEEMS to be broadly on the right side of dealing with debt and being upfront about it - but I shall reaserve my judgement to his deeds in power rather than words in opposition.
You know where I stand on Brown.
Nick Palmer you are constrain not by this forum but by your leader’s total lack of honesty.
if Mike wants me to do that I will this afternoon.
Email me if you wish Mr S.
94 was to 86
50. Joyce was stitched up like a kipper. The Treason Act 1351 was amended retroactively by the Labour government in 1945, specifically to catch Joyce within its ambit.
The question of Joyce’s intention vis-à-vis the passport was not left to the Jury.
A commutation of the death sentence was in order, because of the split decision in the House of Lords on a novel point of law, and because of the unprecedented length of time that Joyce had spent under sentence of death.
The government seemingly wanted to make a martyr out of him, and they got their wish…
68 NPMP - So you’re final paragraph makes it clear there is no reason to change leader this year as it would mean an early election. You are prepared to do it next year as you’re due to have an election anyway.
Quite simply this is a disgrace. You know the country has a lame duck PM and that the un-elected Peter Mandelson is in charge. This is an affront to democracy. The country needs strong leadership and a renewed House of Commons, yet all Labour MPs are interested in is hanging on to power and money. You don’t worry a jot about the country so long as you’re alright Jack!
We need a General Election, now.
68 Nick Palmer “I’m an MP you know”, Labour is an alliance of liars, thieves and traitors.
You and your party have British blood on your incompetent, treasonous hands, including Chinese Cocklers who you encouraged to Britain and then turned a blind eye to, leaving them without paying taxes and without safe working conditions.
If an Angel were to lead your unholy party, I would question it’s credentials.
89. Possibly not, but isn’t it rather delicious that his downfall resulted from a false claim for the passport of a country he wished to betray?
68 Nick Palmer “I’m an MP you know”, Labour is an alliance of li@rs, th1eves and trat0rs.
Mandys interview on the Today programme is worth a listen. You have to admire the bloke for getting thro the interview, Evan Davis really wasn’t having any of it.
@ 7.50 am
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8123000/8123574.stm
68 You and your party have British blood on your incompetent, treason0us hands, including Chinese Cocklers who you encouraged to Britain and then turned a blind eye to, leaving them without paying taxes and without safe working conditions.
If an Angel were to lead your unholy party, I would question it’s credentials.
Sean Fear
Please stop being so calm and reasonable. You’ll have people voting Tory.
Take a glance up the thread. Look at all those wonderfully hysterical posts. Try to follow their lead.
Much more of your stuff and Labour won’t even be able to muster 20%.
97 - Surely there should not be a general election until Cameron has cleared out his Shadow Cabinet of expenses cheats?
96. Hilarious Rod - the only people who think Joyce is a ‘martyr’ are the same people who think Julius Streicher is.
92 Patrick, I was never a Brown supporter for PM.
But do believe Johnson could make the result closer in a hard fought election campaign.
This would be good for the country and the Conservatives, as a walkover without the public fully engaged, will make the act of governing more difficult through hard times.
103 Would it not be even better if voters cleared the shadow cabinet of expenses cheats? I’d laugh if some of them suffered the Portillo experience (along with Balls, Darling, etc).
(I look forward to your thread on this tim - assuming OGH agrees. Don’t forget to use the word ‘Gideon’)
104. What about Scrabble cheats? That Lansley with his medical terms - “Qzkajky” - is not a kind of catheter..
98. It’s possible that Joyce really thought he was British, and there was no intent to deceive when applying for the passport. No man can be a witness to the circumstances of his own birth…
104
Of course we shouldn’t forget, who joined Joyce on the gallows.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Amery
103. Given Brown himself is an expense’s cheat, I’m not so sure about that….
103 I see that you chose to respond to my comments by not addressing the issues I raised - is that because you agree with me?
On thread what I find intriguing about the pushing of Johnson is that it shows Labour are still entirely in thrall to a peculiarly outdated kind of identity politics.
Johnson supposedly will appeal on the basis of his ‘ordinariness’, this being the supposed antidote to thwe ‘privileged’ background of Cameron.
This is just another variation on the ‘toffs’ line which has proved so disastrous for Labour to date. It’s remarkable how bonheadedly stupid Labour strategists appear to be.
111. Welcome to tim world !
If you think posts are hysterical now, wait until Labour have driven more to the BNP.
Those hysterics would most probably have emigrated by then.
103: Why don’t we have a general election and let the public decide….
I tested the change Brown for Johnson theory on an individual who was ‘fair minded with Brown’ when he took over. I was surprised by the “They cannot do that” and other negative comments.
I am amused Mike keeps highlighting this “change Brown for Johnson” line and can only assume he has a bet (S) on it! Hope it works out better for him than the Ming and Beckitt Bets for speaker…….. Shame it would be dire for the country to give any of the useless idiots in the cabinet anymore time to screw things up. I dont think it would work and think Mike is stuck politically in a period of a month ago. That well deserved Holiday certainly needs to recharge his batteries. It is difficult to think of new threads - no doubt about it. But Johnson as Pm =
David Beckham comes across as a sound bloke but would you really want him taking intellectually challanging decisions that affect your family and its future
Especially after the idiot who has ruined the country?
Re: reasons to vote Labour - why?
Labour have had 12 yrs to implement whatever they wanted to with a huge majority.
Did it reform public services? No. It just bathed its pet services in cash.
I cannot think of a single sincerely held new policy that Labour now has. It’s all cheap class warfare, pandering to its disillusioned core vote [council houses for locals], spend spend spend…
Gordon spent 10 yrs wanting Tony’s job - he repeatedly talks about having time to set out his vision - well where is it 2 yrs on?
Recycled policies, recycled announcements, ‘extraordinary’ levels of debt, the BNP elected in its heartlands and less county councillors than MPs.
Oh yes and 3rd in the Euro elections / lowest ever polling results since 1910 [or 1918 can't recall who was right].
At what point will Labour realise that the public took them on trust in 1997, stuck with them twice more based on Tony’s soft soap/Gordon’s supposed economic mastery. And a weak Opposition didn’t provide a credible alternative.
Well Tony’s magic touch is gone and Gordon is a busted flush with zero credibility. And the Opposition now have a strong leader, sensible-heads, and some good ideas about putting power back into Parliament/local hands.
Labour = Game Over.
Tories = You have 5 lives. Press Enter to begin…
NPMP: “I’m constrained in what I say since this is a predominantly hostile public forum”
Drop the word “forum” from the end of that, and you’d be right.
The rest of your post, and this debate, is irrelevant. Brown Ain’t Going Anywhere, and there’s no way of dumping him. The Tractor man may have made offstage noises about resigning *at some future point*, but when push comes to shove, he won’t be pushed and they’re too scared to shove.
I note Rod Crosby’s change in attitude, though. For half a decade he’s been telling us that Brown won’t quit and there is no mechanism to chuck him, now Rod has realised Brown is a liability for Labour it’s all perfectly easy, and Johnson could be ushered in to number 10 tomorrow.
Curious.
106: Indeed, could change the name of the site to ‘politicalsmears.com’ for a day to mark the occasion.
Hmmm how much more evidence do you need that Boris is bonkers?
He was a martyr, in the sense that Diana was a martyr. Her death evoked an astonishing response, partly because she spoke to every woman who has been let down by a man, every woman who has worried about her weight, every woman who feels the system is unfair to women. That is a lot of women.
Michael Jackson went one better. He spoke to the billions of people the world over who feel that they do not conform in some way to the Hollywood stereotype of good looks – either because they are too fat or thin or the wrong colour or have the wrong sort of eyes or nose. In a world dominated by a demoralising canon of physical perfection, he was the patron saint of dysmorphia.
Or is a cry from the heart?
116. I wouldnt write off Balls - he duffed up Andy Marr yesterday bigstyle.
re James Joyce - check this out
http://ulyssesseen.com/comic/us_comic_tel_iii.html
118: What the ‘labourites’ don’t get is that we are not a bunch of rabid tory-lovers which connive to attack that nice Mr Brown and the lovely Labour party.
We’re ordinary people. The public. And there are millions, and millions of us. All wanting to give labour, not just Brown a right good kicking.
When you’ve trashed the economy, public institutions, constitutional norms and civil liberties you should expect ‘hostility’ and ‘hysteria’.
re 103. The real problem Tim is that shadow cabinet expenses have not become much of an issue. It’s only when a story starts to “have legs” that it becomes important from an electoral perspective.
I know you are working hard on this here, and probably elsewhere, Tim but it really isn’t sinking in.
If it starts to do so then it could influence general election betting.
I am totally unconvinced by the AJ doubters in the thread. I certainly do believe that his leadership could be a threat to the Tories hence my reluctance not to bet against Labour.
114 It’s a betting Site, Alf - the only one on Politics, as far as I know.
There are plenty of other Sites that cater for the hysterically partisan. Some even encourage them.
121 Ed Balls = Dennis the Menace
Andy Marr = Softy Walter
124
The hysterical, angry and partisan are more likely to vote. Which has betting implications.
& to 123. If Tim wants to submit a piece I’ll be happy to consider it. Email me at mike@politicalbetting.com
123: If Tim wrote it, it would completely one-sided and unbalanced. for every ‘cheater’ in the shadow cabinet, theres one in the actual cabinet. It’s a failure of both parties to fully deal with everyone. But then if you fired ‘every’ dodgy politican, you’d be left with no cabinet left on either side. For every Gove, theres a Darling.
After that moronic nonsense from Johnson, (Easterros please comment) this is just brilliant.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/29/michael-jackson-glastonbury-charlie-brooker
GE date
2010 now 1.15/1.17
Gone too far the wrong way now ?
re 119 - The domain name Politicalsmears.com is available.
http://www.register.com/titan/domain/searchresults.rcmx?domain=politicalsmears&selectedTLDs=.com&x=37&y=22
123. AJ for PM is all well and good, Mike, but you haven’t explained how you’re going to get rid of Brown. Gordo waited ten years for this job, I simply can’t see him politely and voluntarily giving it up.
He believes he is the man for the task. He thinks he can turn the economy around and therefore Labour’s polling. He’s convinced he is better than anyone else, certainly any one else in the Cabinet, especially a docile squit like Johnson.
How do you get rid of Gordon?
123. But as you yourself note Mike, the polling evidence is inconclusive. And I seem to recall one focus group seeing Johnson as an almost risible figure.
In a GE campaign focused on how the UK is going to overcome the massive challenges of fiscal consolidation and improvement in key public services like education, I suspect Johnson would come across as embarassingly lightweight.
Johnson might improve Labour’s position slightly, if only by removing the disgusting stain that Brown has become. But we are talking about avoiding total meltdown, nothing more.
124 This is a Political Betting site Peter the ‘Punter’.
It is for political discussion.
If you dont like that, I suggest there are other sites for ‘punters’ like you.
62. That was a great typo. “Mandelson in Petuniagate storm”.
Council Houses for Whites:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196195/Labour-vows-Britons-council-house-queue-bid-win-voters-far-Right.html
132. “docile squit like Johnson”
This is the rub - Brown could be ousted, Labour poll ratings could go up etc etc.
But - it would take a warrior, a mover, a shaker.
There are none in ths shadow cabinet. Apart from Balls.
127 Does the word ‘Punter’ in Peter the ‘Punter’ refer to betting?
Oh, pardon me. I though him a user of pr0stitutes. A kerb crawler if you will. But if it referred to betting, please accept my apologies.
Well, if Peter the ‘Punter’ ignores what people are thinking, I suggest his tips are worthless.
In all this discussion on Johnson, we are ignoring one possibility: that a last minute replacement of the PM might make things WORSE for Labour, not better.
This is entirely feasible. The public might regard any injury time substitution as a cynical and devious ploy, and they’d be right. The only way to avoid this would be for Johnson to spend a year or two as PM to prove he is a real premier, not some puppet designed solely to placate the electorate.
But he won’t have a year or two to prove himself.
Labour are stuck.
Hah.
Dave is great? He wants to bin ID cards; I’ll settle for that.
Labour *are* crap — the bunch of NeoConservative authoritarians they’ve become, at least. That’s scientific fact.
I’m not a fan of Alan Johnson but he could get a bounce as a new Prime Minister in given circumstances. He has to be able to present himself as a fresh face and honest and offering a change of direction after an orderly handover. This is why the “cuts vs investment” strategy is potentially so damaging: either he backs Gordon Brown and sullies his name or he distances himself from it and undermines the strategy and party unity.
It is still just barely possible for the golden scenario to be pulled off for Labour, but I’d give it odds of 25/1 - there are just too many ifs. At the moment I’m not a Labour seller simply because I expect to be able to sell at better prices in due course.
2 makes good points.
I do not see now how a ‘coronation’ could be agreed. Thus a labour leader election campaign would inevitably draw questions about how the new leader would deal with the deficit and bring out the issue of cuts. If Johnson were ‘crowned then this is the issue he would have to deal with. And an admission of what Brown currently lies about will hardly be conducive to a ‘bounce’.
It seems too late to change leaders now. The statements from the governor of the BoE seem to indicate that talk about ‘green shoots’ is far too early, we have just seen 2000 steel jobs go in the northern labour heartlands. A new leader in 6 months would face all the problems of today with the added issue of the fact that the deficit is likely by then to be obviously larger than predicted.
How much bounce do you get when you jump into quicksand?
123: The real question is ‘is the issue Brown or Labour’ If its just Brown, then change to Johnson to lead to a new dawn of milk and honey.
If its labour, with its policy of debt and tax and ID cards. Then I can’t see how any new leader is going to change that narrative around in a few months.
If Brown had stepped down last year, then sure Labour would have time. But to change tack and direction compltely in a few months just before an election, (even assuming Johnson gets in unopposed). That is a big, big ask for anyone….let alone someone which hasn’t shown any sign of a real leader.
Nelson has the facts about Brown’s lies.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3723633/browns-big-lie.thtml
133. runnymede
Yes i remember the Guardian poll that showed Johnson would put Labour on 19% in a GE! I am completly unconvinced the Johnson rouse would work.
When Johnson became Home Secretary he either delibratly tried to sound stupid and out of his depth or…………
The time for replacing Brown came and went with the local and european elections. Like ot or not, Labour and Brown are now stuck with each other until the general election. Brown won’t walk away and Labour have run out of time and bottle to force him out. Their fates are now entwined until the bitter end.
MM - agree with the distinction between criticism and hostility in your own case, and a number of the others here - civility generally rules, which is why it’s a good site. But there’s limited scope for me to debate with, say, Al Fresco about the best way forward for Labour - he’d feel that collective hara-kiri was the only acceptable answer.
More generally, I’m sure you’ll understand that I need to express myself with some care to avoid it becoming a story in itself. The same applies to the other MPs who sometimes contribute here like Stewart Jackson and Steve Webb.
Waugh says Darling not happy about Mandy announcing the lack of spending review
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/06/alistair-darlings-humiliation.html
UPDATE: The Treasury are not taking this lying down. Sources say that “The Chancellor makes the decisions, no matter what Peter Mandelson says, and no decisions have been made.” They say the Prime Minister agrees with the Chancellor that no decision has been made.
139 SeanT, not sure that would work. If Brown does a runner just befor ethe election, the number of voters frustrated at not being able to punch Brown in the face - electorally - is unlikely to rise. For the result to be worse for Labour, it would require some Labour voters to stay at home, dismayed by the cynical nature of it all. Not sure if such people are still in Labour’s camp anyway.
136. Wow, hopefully this should undermine the BNP. It should also help to show how it is Labour that shares the most political territory with them and so has to defend its heartland against them.
124 That’s an extraorinarily tenuous connection, Councilhouse.
We know there are a lost of hysterical, angry people around. Why do they bother to post here though? It’s a betting Site, not a rant house!
The Site has built a huge reputation over the years, but not from the kind of vacuous voices that merely repeat ad nauseam so many variations on ‘I hate X/Y/Z and want to vote them out.’
OK, I appreciate the political betting scene is a bit inactive at the moment, but most of today’s posts have little to do with politics, in any meaningful sense, and even less to do with betting. If I want to read mindless rants, I’ll buy the Daily Mail!
Now shape up everybody, including you, Councilhouse.
After Dave’s, ‘Mea Culpa’ on Scottish devolution comes this:
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/06/29/tory-am-calls-for-a-welsh-parliament-in-a-federal-british-state-91466-24008146/
Hmmm!
148. Well good to see economic policy being run in such a smooth and efficient way, isn’t it?
148. Thats Browns latest relaunch blown out of the water on day one then?
Mike a grocer’s apostrophe seems to have crept into “fortune’s”.
And yes a change of leader - it matters not who - is Labour’s only hope of avoiding a crushing defeat. They won’t take it though as I think they have a collective death wish. After all they did annoint a leader when plenty of polling evidence existed to say that he’d be an absolute disaster.
137
Fiver in the box yet?
153. Brown, Darling and Mandelson fighting over the same job, running the economy, none of the three being competent to do it.
“the best way forward for Labour”
Identity Cards Act.
2006.
Repeal.
151. The anger is only going to rise Peter, until the wretched government is ejected. I fully expect this forum to become more hostile to Labour. There’s not a lot Mike can do about it: that is the atmosphere in the country at large.
Because of things like this:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196165/Britain-85-sharia-courts-The-astonishing-spread-Islamic-justice-closed-doors.html
The day after the GE, when we can all breathe freely again under a Tory government, will be the day some balance is restored to pb.com
147 Nick, we appreciate that this place isn’t exactly under Chatham Hose rules! We’ll look forward to reading your true views on Labour’s position after the event…it can’t be easy operating in the current environment, when your best efforts at keeping your constituency in play keep getting scuppered by your own leadership. But it has to be said - your own cheerleading for ID cards has not been helpful (although your stand on the Gurkhas was widely applauded, so you don’t always get it wrong!).
134 There isn’t another Political Betting Site, Alf, as I stated earlier.
The priciple purpose of the Site is betting. Ask the founder, if you like.
Of course political discussion arises from that, often brilliantly. The trouble is that the Site’s considerable success attracts a considerable number who have nothing more on their mind than a wish to talk up their own side in various ways. Some are entertaining. Others provide genuine insight. Many appear incapable of either. It would be a shame if the Site were overrun by the latter.
Anybody think Browns latest “British Plan” could be the basis for a manifesto and an October election? I’m asking this rather forlornly as I don’t really believe myself, but an autumn election is what we need desperatly….
Morning all.
Very telling post by Nick P at 68. He seems to be accepting now that a 2010 pre-election change of leader is on the cards. We’ll see.
As we all know, Mike is a keen supporter of the idea that Labour would do much better under anyone but Brown. As others have pointed out, this is questionable; it will look like panic, none of the alternative candidates are particularly attractive of talented, it will destroy Labour’s best argument (’Brown is an economic genius’), it will leave them with the dilemma of having to explain why the Conservatives have been right all along, and any leadership contest will expose the policy vacuum at the heart of government.
My own view is that a change of leader would provide a short-term change of sentiment - because left-leaning punters, who have projected all of Labour’s problems onto Brown’s personality - will be seduced into thinking that a change of leader is the magic bullet which will bring Cameron down. This would provide a nice betting opportunity, since they will be disappointed. If it happens, buy Labour on the announcement of Brown’s departure, sell Labour at the height of the new leader’s brief honeymoon.
156. 2 days left !
I must say I’m not hopeful though - I found myself gazing at the RNIB box in the pub yesterday and was tempted to do a “Paddy Power” and pay out early 
re 68 Nick P the debt and expenses issues are not linked however much you might try to link them. Our debt is entirely due to the profligacy of one complete and utter fool - who unfortunately now happens to be PM
150. On the other side of the coin what will the immigrants think?
They (Non - whites) might sit on their hands whilst the Whites think - if they vote BNP in a GE they might get even more concessions from government!
Again it is the law of unintended consequences at work, Labours lust for power and pervertion of the electoral system to sustain them in power just creates a more extreme environment and knee jerk reactions. Labour have utterly failed this country and Immigration is just part of the Story. The Labour brand and its policies have failed so badly that a systemic collapse of it and its policies/electoral machinery is the only reasonable retribution it derserves. The Liberal Democrats should share in this collapse due to their allignment and tactical support for Labour.
Realistically, there are now only two remaining windows for a General Election, Oct ‘09 and May ‘10.
The received wisdom is that were Brown to be replaced by another unelected leader, then there would have to be an immediate general election, which rather knocks out the May ‘10 option.
For Postie, or anyone else, to be in place for an October ‘09 GE, there would need to be a coronation at the Labour Party Conference in September, which would be difficult or impossible to orchestrate, especially were other candidates to stand.
I suppose there is a remote possibility that Brown could “ill-health” retire at the end of the year or very early in ‘10 and for Johnson as newly anointed PM to then convince everyone that it was OK for him to hold on until a GE in early May. The options for Labour are indeed now seriously closing in.
Richard Nabavi, I suspect Nick Palmer’s expectations are set in part by his wishes (both last year and this). If there was a grand plan, we wouldn’t have had the chaotic week of the EU elections. At least he is closer to those that decide these matters than most of us.
Changing Brown for Johnson would ultimately be like Newcastle getting Sheraer. Something to please the faithful, to give them a chance.
Sheraer couldn’t save Newcastle. In fact, he was/is probably unsuited for the job.
Thats simply how I feel about Johnson. He could do it, I’m not saying he can’t, but I don’t have any faith that he will….
OECD claiming our debt to reach 90% of GDP BY NEXT YEAR!!!!!
O/T
Interesting that less than 1 hour into another Brown Government relaunch. People are already starting to say that the announcemants are Uturns and admissions of Labour failure over the last twelve years. In addition the delay of the public spending review until after the election is seen by the electorate as an attempt to pull the wool over their eyes ! the people aren’t as stupid as the government would wish ! (see comments on Times, Telegraph, Guardian, London Evening Standard and Sky websites)
Mandleson can be hilarious at times.
Mandelson said: “We have to live within our means as a government, and being fiscally responsible is an important principle of New Labour.”
The gall of the man is staggering. He reminds me of Comical Ali claiming great victories whilst US tanks could clearly be seen driving through the Bagdad streets in the background
Nick Palmer has proved himself an unreliable narrator of Labour’s internal politicking. He claimed, strenuously, that there wasn’t a plot against Brown last year - and there was.
He hinted, strongly, that Brown would be gone this Spring, and Brown remains.
His predictions are 2 parts aspiration and one part prognostication.
170. A Government of liars.
159 I agree, SeanT. And it’s only to be expected that it spills onto forums like this.
It can be interesting, entertaining even, and very occasionally enlightening. But a page of Daily Moan rants is of what kind of interes to anybody, never mind genuine punters?
Sorry, Sean, you know how I feel about your own contributions, but some days the quality of posting is a bit depressing and worth commenting on in its own right.
It’s better, of course, when there’s something to bet on. I’ll cheer up then.
167. The cynicism of NickPMP and his Labour friends is quite incredible. The idea that they can inflict Brown on all of us until the very last moment when its practical to get rid of him and not have to call an election until the very last minute in spring 2010 is just typical of the self-serving way New Labour have “governed” us from the very beginning. All along these jokers have been in it for themselves - From President and First Lady Blair down!
Of course we all know when the key moment in Jan or Feb 2010 comes, Labour will bottle it again and Labour will bump along with the Clunking One until the election, but Nicks post is certainly a revealing insight into the New Labour mind-set.
149 MM
any putative replacement of Brown will be happening when things will be getting worse on the unemployment front and while the debts keep on mounting.
Dumping Brown just before a GE would look like panic and Labour would be punished accordingly.
Once the voters’ trust has gone there is no reclaiming it short of a long period in the wilderness - witness the plight of the Tories over the past twelve years.
170 Mandy truly is the master of the Bald Faced Lie. Just in terms of observing politics, you have to admire the mighty size of his brass neck. In the past, it might have been an asset; but the mood the electorate now, can’t see it working in the current climate.
Seems like Balls and Mandelson are the Chancellor now, come on Darling resign and bring this show to an end before we all go down with it.
169 Mandy’s performance on R4 Today was one of the weakest I’ve heard - and I got the impression that when Evan cornered him on the spending review that he was making policy on the hoof ‘that’s my understanding…’
I’m glad Darling is fighting back - although my opinion of his flipping is very low, I feel he is one of the policy good guys who are fighting hard to keep us afloat.
The more Labour dodge the issue, the more and more dishonest they appear.
I find it hard to believe how far things have gone that HMG is putting off the review until after the GE - it smacks of la-la-la and at worst it is financially irresponsible.
Yet another cheap political manoeuvre to avoid the harsh but cruel truth that Labour have ruined the economy [again].
addndm to 175
The talk of a postponed spending review will not be helping the public mood either. The idea of Brown hiding the bad news is merely eroding public trust further
O/T (sort of):
Seeing the Waugh piece (link at 148), anyone who bet on Balls being the next Chancellor shouldn’t throw away those betting slips quite yet.
Its not just posters that are hostile to Labour, the media are getting more hostile with each day that passes.
174.
Very well summarised and I think you have it spot on they will stick with the “clunking one” !
lost a post, sigh
OECD claiming our debt to hit 90% of GDP NEXT YEAR
168 I like the Newcastle/Shearer analogy.
test
Peter the Punter
If you want a betting angle to the anger of posters, public and government opponents generally, look into turnout. I suspect the combination of the next election being a change election, combined with the extra motivation of many voters this time round, will see higher turnout.
Maybe not as high as 92, but definetly higher.
178.
Quite and the more Labour keep running from the issue of the PBR the more dodgy they look ! I have been saying that even before the finacial crisis happened it is the government debt level that is going to loose them the election. With the current finacial crisis, rising unemployment and spiralling PBR they are definately TOAST !!
Generalising here, but it seems that all new national leaders get a bounce in the polls, even if its for a short while. I can’t see why Johnson (or any of the other Labour possibles) won’t get such a bounce, and why that bounce won’t translate into at least some votes at a general election, if it is held within a couple of months. Being PM gives the holder some additional prestige that is just not apparent when they are any old cabinet minister or former postie.
So the new PM makes a few policy reversals, promise a new style of leadership, and only a small conservative victory, or maybe even a hung parliament is possible. Doesn’t matter if they’re not fit to be PM - that takes many months before it becomes the consensus.
did Mandelson really claim that they might have to put back the privatisation of PO because mp’s were “too busy”
Looool
OECD also seem to want to see detail of how UK will cut spending, Sky picking up on Labour holding off on spending review for political purposes.
168 Sheraer - so good you misnamed him twice.
By postponing the spending review does it not take away from Labour the “what will the Cons cut” line ?
173. I would actually welcome some genuine debate and plausible opposition from lefties on here, it would balance the site. However - as I say - I don’t expect it to happen soon, because the left has nothing positive to say.
Their policies are just lies and cant, their opinions are worthless and vile, their notion of politics is lame smears against the Conservatives. cf tim.
Labour need to take the voters’ anger on the chin, accept that they failed, go into opposition, and rethink what they stand for. Only then will they be able to come on here and make persuasive arguments.
Speed the day.
188. The public aren’t going to buy that.
41.
“Johnson is an empty shell and so anyone who wants a change from Brown is able to project their own wishes onto him.”
Just like the old Chamereon minus the Dumbledore taint. I agree that Denham would be a much cleaner contrast. Which is just one reason why it’ll never happen.
I am still pinching myself that Mandy said that fiscal responsibility is Labour value - that and Balls yesterday calling for all politicians to be honest [like Labour].
Well, guess it’s par for the course - Labour pinch Tories clothes, then pinch their policies, now pinch their slogans.
Squiggly logo anyone?
Johnson is a nice unthreatening bloke, that’s it - imagine him in charge if Iran kicked off - not in a million years is he PM material.
193.
Podgy Peedie on the box this morning saying that the Government HAS got fresh plans for the Royal Mail, honest, they just got lost in the post!
Apparently he gave the recorded delivery chit to GideO on a yacht and it fell overboard.
OT AM expenses online - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/wales_politics/www.assemblywales.org/allowances
185 Well I guess you can turn any post into a betting one if you use enough imagination, but I reckon I’ve made my point by now.
The turnout question is an interesting one though - anger and hysteria on the one hand, apathy and cynicism on the other. Not sure which wins.
You do have to be careful using PB for soundings though. We are a very atypical bunch of political anoraks. Remember how far wrong the PB communiy was on the Deputy Speaker election? I think it was less than 5% of us thought it would be Bercow.
202 Sorry Council, that is of course Speaker election. Don’t know where Deputy came from.
Cameron press conferance on BBC News “PM being dihonest with people”
We are going to see a lot of this Honsety vs Dishonesty theme from Cameron I think !
199 - David Camerons John McCain impressions over Georgia and Iran worry me more.
But Dave is great so shhh.
204 Good. They’ve ruined the economy and now they’re lying about it.
202 PtP - Yep, that was indeed amazing, especially as Bercow had been the clear, seemingly unassailable favourite for most of the previous fortnight - a classic case of PBers voting collectively with their hearts instead of with their heads - always a recipe for disaster.
Surprised and quite concerned that Nick Palmer sees debt/recession as the least of Labour’s problems. There is a clear and urgent need for spending cuts.
Yet Labour are blithely carrrying on spending money like the boom years (they couldn’t balance the books THEN!!!) and it is storing up big problems for the future.
Astonishing that Mandelson is abdicating all responsibility for getting a grip of spending until after the election, which effectively means giving up altogether.
The country once again will need the conservative party to clean up after a Labour government has severely weakened the economy.
Is the vitriol on here towards Labour so hard to understand? There is at best moderate enthusiasm for Cameron and the tories, but by God how people are growing to despise this abysmal government of ours.
I agree with Rod’s comment about Joyce, other than the point about him being a martyr. No one regards him in that light.
Good to See Cameron on the TV!
Unlike many Labour and LD politicians i can watch him (Cameron) on the TV and enjoy watching him! A brillent political operator. Not like Brown or that idiot from the LDs!
Chamereon on Sky right now wittering on about MPs with experience outside politics. Like his own vast experience of carrying round Noman Lament’s Visa slips?
Now he’s gone on to the Tories’ Norwich byelection candidate. Hang on, this is someone who’s career until very recently was funded entirely by MP’s expenses, which she of course used entirely for constituency as opposed to political work. Oh Yes!
196 Can’t disagree with that, SeanT.
Fortunately I can remember posting on here when colors were reversed and I used to commiserate with quality Tory posters like David Herdson and Benedict White, who soldiered on through the tough times. Over the years, you do get a kind of balance.
Very hard to be a Labour poster on here these days. You’ve got to admire those who attempt to argue their corner with reason and diginity.
General Election turnouts:
2005 61.4
2001 59.4
1997 71.4
1992 77.7
1987 75.3
1983 72.7
1979 76
1974 72.8
1974 78.8
1970 72
1966 75.8
1964 77.1
1959 78.7
1955 76.8
1951 82.6
1950 83.9
1945 72.8
Look at the last two elections. Free money if any bookie wants to offer odds on an increase in turnout.
Presumably strategists of any party look at the whole spectrum of possible outcomes. What if … Mr Brown leads Labour into the GE and wins? That might happen if the Tories suffer from some black swan event.
If there’s a majority opinion amongst the Labour members/PLP that Mr Brown is unsuited to be PM, surely they have to do something about it *before* the GE?
Glad he made the point about idle MPs with no outside interests and that being a minister is also a second job!
I’m really hoping that politics will grow up a bit over the next few months - I find the whole smears/lies thing so depressing.
Interesting quote on R5 this morning - that Labour’s BBF just needs a red rose to be the manifesto and that it was the product of wholesale idea hoovering across Whitehall [according to senior civil servant].
“i can watch him (Cameron) on the TV and enjoy watching him!”
Wow!! You’ve learned how to use your mouse and keyboard entirely left-handed?!
Big prospects in the job market.
194: I know…spelling at haste, repent at lesiure. Apologies to the great Alan, the Geordie Messiah (mk II).
Think about it though
Keegan-> Kinnear->Shearaer
Blair-> Brown -> Johnson
Spooky…
I’m finding Evan Davis a breath of fresh air on Today - he actually seems to research in detail rather than try to push one or two points hoping for a soundbite. He asks the same uncomfortable questions whether Tory or Labour (though seems to go easier on Vince Cable). He also stood up better to Mandelson’s repetition of Balls’ Marr interview technique, stopping Mandy making the interview all about “it’s important that we show what the Conservatives …” (almost word for word what Balls said - briefing notes must be detailed) and as result got Mandelson having to answer on the PSR
217: And i’m still wrong!!…..I need more coffee…or an edit button.
202/207 The only PBer in an excellent position to know and the one many of us we chose to ignore was Nick Palmer. There was also an odd body of support for Widdecombe whom he rightly told us had no chance whatsoever and so it proved.
213 Thanks Councilhouse
I don’t think there are any odds being offered yet. Certainly I would bet now on <61.4% if the offer were evens, but I wouldn’t go heavy. You never now if ‘anger and hysteria’ will overcome ‘apathy and cynicism’.
There’s a while to go to the GE yet.
215.
“being a minister is also a second job!”
One of the biggest conspiracies of silence spreading across all parities in Westminster, is about the poor performance of most ministers - and many senior opposition ’spokespersons’ - as constituency MPs. The ones which perform adequately generally have to dip their hands deep in their pockets to employ ‘above-grade’ staff who do virtually all their constituency work except the photo-calls. The corrollory of this is that many of these people are also pretty cr@p Ministers. If we do reform our system we could do worse than look at having a seperate executive.
220 Absolutely right, PfP.
Nick doesn’t always get it right - none of us do - but he was spot on there.
This decision not to produce a spending review seems to be going down really, really badly. Can’t wait for tomorrow’s ‘Labour Lies’ headlines.
214 The only sort of black swan event I can imagine is that David Cameron is caught running an international p0rn ring or something equally implausible.
Even if he dropped down dead on polling day, the sympathy vote would go with the Tories. Bit like the West Wing when the deceased candidate for Orange County won.
If AJ wants to be PM his only chance is now. If Labour wait until after the GE to pick a new leader, that leader whoever he or she is will never be PM, nor probably will the leader after that. I’d be very surprised if the next Labour PM is even an MP at present.
PtP - ”Certainly I would bet now on <61.4%”
Really?
226. AJ would be squashed by Mandy and Brown in about 2 seconds.
138
‘Council Houses for Whites:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196195/Labour-vows-Britons-council-house-queue-bid-win-voters-far-Right.html
That’s going to be dead easy to implement since we don’t have any queue jumping or could it be that successive New Labour politicians have been telling us porkies yet again?
215.
“I find the whole smears/lies thing so depressing.”
The FT this morning reports a big boost in the comfort-blanket-knitting industry. An entire politcal class is facing a crisis of reality.
Meanwhile, Thompsons are doubling the number of plane seats on their London-Luxor flights just to cope with demand from MPs and their hangers-on. A spokesperson said: “Denial Trips were already sold-out.”
226: Would Alan Johnson even want to be the person to ‘lead’ potential to the worse result in Labour’s history, and also have the dubious honour of being the shortest serving PM.
224.
The PBR is the biggest issue that Labour can’t hide from or Spin. They are really on the hook and won’t be able to get off it right up to election day ! “DEBT DOESN’T GO AWAY AS THEY SAY AND YOU SHOULDN’T TRY AND BURY YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND WHEN YOU ARE IN DEBT” = GAME OVER FOR LABOUR !!!!
227 That’s what I said, Councilhouse.
You want an even score? Send me an email. Usual address: arklebar@talktalk.net
229.
“Council Houses for Whites”
What a marvellous proposal, relocating the Club in this manner. We can invest the profits from the Mayfair asset in a Ponzi scheme and then live off the TV rights of ‘Coronets to Chavs’!!
By the way, has Bercow said anything about Balls briefing the press before addressing Parliament?
232.
“YOU SHOULDN’T TRY AND BURY YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND ”
Explain to us, please, why SHOUTING about Chamereon’s total denial of the need to be honest with the public about the contents of a neccessary real cuts agenda makes him any different from Gordo.
216. wage slave-
What pasting? I masted that one years ago!
I could give you a lesson and fill you in if you want!
http://tinyurl.com/cz3ewc
209. ‘No one regards him in that light.’
Well, the Guardian in 1945 was quite scathing: “killing a man is not the way to root out false opinions”, and Joyce’s biographer, Francis Selwyn, considers him “one more example of a villain made a hero by the hangman’s art.”
(212 - Slightly O/T but Peter is repeating Mike’s earlier incorrect assertion that the Tories have sometimes been a small minority on pbc. That was true in the earliest days, but then the only regular posters were Sid and Doris Museli-Focus and their dog, Sandals. Plus Sean Fear and Richard (Original). But since the site really took off after the 2004 Euro/Lomdon elections, the blue team has consistently amounted to at least 33% of postings.
Interesting how this curious myth has developed.
218.
“Evan Davis … seems to go easier on Vince Cable).”
Might this be something to do with the fact that Cable has already detailed a multi-billion pound public spending cuts proposal which his ugllier sisters refuse to face up to?
234
“Council Houses for Whites”
Brown now ripping off BNP policies,first it was ‘British Jobs for British workers’ and now it’s their council housing policy.
33 - I enjoy the irony of an anonymous internet poster calling Alan Johnson a “weak, weak man”.
Strapworld - given Johnson’s background and where he has got to weakness is not one attribute I would say he possessed.
Of course, that does not make him prime ministerial material, but it does make him a whole lot braver and stronger than aanonymous internet geeks such as yourself (and me!).
Knowone is shouting but yourself - upper case is making a point it’s not shouting !
Cameron is not in denial about contents its Brown that needs to come out and explain via a proper spending review, which they have cancelled until after the election. How they intend to reduce the huge public debt they have accrued ! Cameron or anyone that takes over the Labour Balls Up will be up their ears in debt for years !
239 and what of the other 67%?
237.
“What pasting…?”
a hazard of your viewing activity when the hot sun is drying out your tum?
“I could …fill you in if you want!”
The Toryboty answer to everything. Too many Med yacht trips, no doubt!
Now Chamereon is going on again on Sky about the need for ‘honesty’. Not so much using a spade or shovel to dig himself a hole - more a JCB.
245. Cut down your caffine intake ?
Re my point above about how mp’s were “to busy” to act on the PO privatisation.
How very thoughtful of Cameron to offer one of his opposition days to the Government for the debate.
ROFL
243.
Wayne is another of tim’s parody toryboty’s isn’t he? He’s even outsprinting ‘Martin Day’ in the use of exclamation marks and mis-spelling.
Chaereon has told the world ‘we’re all in this together.’ I can even now hear the squatter’s in the MP Keen’s Feltham ‘home’ rolling up their bedrolls and setting their satnavs to the co-ordinates of Chamereon’s Oxfordshire ’second home’ (sic). Month-long barbie-time!
196 - Do you really welcome genuine debate? I have not found that with you at all. You have your prejudices and you are proud of them. If people such as Tim do not lie down and accept your saloon bar wisdom they are, by definition, engaged in smears. Which, of course, is nothing more than smearing.
There are days when this site can produce some interesting exchanges, but most of what we get on here are various pitches of Tory herd hysteria. That will change, of course, when the Tories are in power and things do not change that much, but for now itis something that us lefties have to take on the chin. It’s the hypocrisy we could do without.
233
I’m more than happy for bookies to make 61.4% evens. Look forward to a market. Shadsy?
There, there, Southam.
245 - Cameron wil be as honest as he feels he can get away with. In other words, the chances of him telling us how he is going to tackle the deficit once in power are as slim to non-existent.
Cameron is fortunate in being up against a stale, pointless and deeply unpopular Labour government and so he can get away with murder currently. Obviously, that will change on the other side of the election.
238-Why should loyalty be to a country, why not to their beliefs and ideology?
233 PtP
Interesting point about turnout. I haven’t given it too much thought, but it seems to me there will be several forces working in different directions:
Tending to lower turnout:
1) Disenchanted Labour supporters staying at home
2) “They’re all troughers and I’m not voting for any of them”
Tending to increase turnout:
3) Tory voters returning to the fold
4) “Get Labour out” / “Time for a change”
5) Expenses-scandal disenchantment leading to an increased vote for minor parties
6) The perception that this is a real battle, unlike 2001/2005
7) SNP enthusiasm and the perception that Labour are on the run in Scotland.
The Euro elections, where some of these same forces applied, showed a relatively healthy turnout. Overall, I think I’d expect a small increase in turnout compared with 2005, but as you say it’s a bit early to bet on this.
247.
“How very thoughtful of Cameron to offer one of his opposition days to the Government for the debate.”
Beats having to dream up one or more official conservative policies to rival those of Gordo?
Chamereon ‘thoughtful’? Has Ashcroft been secretly sponsoring him for coaching by Homer Simpson?
I am sure I read/heard/dreamt that the latest GDP figures were out this week. Can anyone confirm ? Thanks.
255 - I wonder when the Tories will get honest about their funding. A truly honest party would be fully transparent about this and would insist that all donations were made in the open.
257. Isn’t that the electoral commissions job ?
256. Next Month! Second Quarter includes June!
OECD predicting Government debt will equal 90% of GDP!
On the allocation of social housing, all I can say is that Gordon is playing a very dangerous game.
It is not true that non-whites get priority housing. The only groups that get priority are parents with inadequate housing (eg a single parent in a bedsit/living with parents), the homeless or recently released prisoners and the dreaded Asylum Seekers.
There are now very few asylum seekers. If you are black, asian, hispanic, etc, you will have as much trouble as anyone else getting housing.
The problem is two fold. The number of social houses hasn’t increased with the demographic change in household formation (more single people, less kids staying at home with their parents). Second, the location of much social housing isn’t the same as the location where many individuals want to live.
Whatever the solution, dog whistles are not the answer. Neither is a new generation of 60s style social building. The council estate experiment is probably the biggest failure of social policy since the second world war. IMO, the answer is taller, but separate buildings in our larges cities, that have 30-40% of units allocated for social housing. No more sink estates please.
257, could be worse. They could be using Government policy to give their donors £10m.
Interesting piece on the illiberal conspiracy about an email that is circulating asking for views on the following questions to be feed back to the Labour National Executive Council. The questions are:
1) reasons for Labour losses, both local and European, and reasons for any good results against the overall trend;
2) what the party leadership can do to rebuild towards the general election, organisationally and politically;
3) how members’ views can be taken into account in policy- making. The national policy forum “Warwick” agreement dates back to last July, before the recession, and needs reviewing, but time and resources do not allow another full-scale forum with thousands of direct amendments. Are members and local parties happy to work through their NPF representatives, and if not, what is the alternative within the Partnership in Power framework?
4) what policies represent “Labour values”?
5) whether conference should return to resolutions or stay with the experiment on “contemporary issues” introduced in 2007;
Questions 1 & 2 are the ones that are interesting from a betting perspective. How could they rebuild from this point? It won’t be easy.
http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2009/06/29/can-labour-learn-the-lessons/#more-5998
We look forward to people like Peter ‘Punter’, Nick Palmer ‘did you know I am an MP’ and Jack ‘Wee-wee, bum-bum’, I am superior’ answering the charges of the hysterical.
As long as they do not, as long as they facilitate the scandalous Labour clowns, expect the hysteria to rise.
MODERATED
260 There is no way that Gordon Brown, XXXXXXXXX, could (or would) ever implement a ‘Whites first’ housing policy.
It would be immoral, illegal and very difficult to implement.
It is just another lie.
258 - Hmmm, I am not sure that line will hold for too long. How does Osborne fund his office and who pays? From whom do the Tories get their money? These are fundamental questions and raise a number of issues, it strikes me that hiding behind the electoral commision - when you are calling for honesty in political life - will not really wash. If you want honesty, be honest. It’s quite simple really.
260.
Sensible thinking CHT.
Re: Purnell joining ‘Dummos’. I didn’t previously realise there was a major vacuousness-vacuum. But of course this gives him the opportunity to cuddle up to Milburn and GideO. He must have got this move right out of Podgy Peedie’s book: “Virtual PM - Britain’s saddest reality”
260.
Sensible thinking CHT.
Re: Purnell joining ‘Dummos’. I didn’t previously realise there was a major vacuousness-vacuum. But of course this gives him the opportunity to cuddle up to Milburn and GideO. He must have got this move right out of Podgy Peedie’s book: “Virtual PM - Britain’s saddest reality.”
259. Thanks Martin.
260, 264 - Just out of interest, where has anyone got the idea that the government is thinking of a whites only housing policy? I hope the honest Tories are not making things up here.
FYI - local does not equal white.
As a Lab->Con switcher, I am as certain as one can be about anything that I would not be won back by Johnson becoming leader.
Reasons (just my personal opinions/reactions):
* Johnson seems like a non-entity. He might grow into the office, but then so might anyone. He looks no more convincing as a potential PM than any other Labour MP.
* Frankly, I want to see Labour punished. I want a day of reckoning, and I don’t want Brown to leave with dignity. (This may be an unattractive but it’s honest.)
* The Labour policies that most offend me cannot simply be cancelled and shrugged off. “Oh, 42 days … well I never. We’ll change it. No worries.” To take just one example, ID cards, I would need to see Labour repudiate not just the policy but the philosophy and people behind it, before I would start to think about considering forgiving them for it.
Of course, I may not be representative of anyone but myself, but I guess that are at least some other ex-Labour defectors who would take the same view. At all events, it’s those people as a whole whose behaviour you need to predict. The views of staunch Labour and Tory partisans will not decide this.
260 “the answer is taller, but separate buildings”.
No, the answer is enforcing our borders.
We could start by deporting all illegal immigrants. Deport all fake asylum seekers - that could have claimed asylum in other countries but shopped for a better deal. Then revoke all passports given illegally to those who do not satisfy the qualification criterias.
You can help by using the word ‘deportation’ in your daily lives. Perhaps set a goal of perhaps, 7 times per day.
269, this is a good community, and a local website, we’ll have no trouble here.
I know people seem intent on being mildly horrid, but has anyone heard about Bercow’s response (or lack thereof) to Balls? It’s key as to whether he’s actually going to be a proper Speaker or an obedient lapdog for the PLP.
257.
“insist that all donations were made in the open.”
An annual public cheque-to$$ing on centre court to warm up Wimbledon? Would beat Cliff Richard.
Trouble in paradise? Apparently Mandy doesn’t think much of Shaun Woodward
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/06/have-peter-shaun-fallen-out.html#links
269. Southam Observer
It is difficult to believe anything the government puts out these days - it started out as whites first and by the end og the day will revert back to Immigrants first!
Oh dear
This weekend marks the second anniversary of Brown’s lifelong ambition, his ascent to the office of British prime minister. He had waited, increasingly short tempered and antagonistic towards his predecessor Tony Blair, long years for the honour to be bestowed. Finally, when Blair stepped down after a 10-year tenure of office, Brown achieved his Valhalla.
Alas, never can so sweet a moment have so rapidly turned sour. In much less than 24 months, Brown has gone from the financial darling of the British political centre left, a chancellor of the exchequer who, over 10 years, had apparently built himself a fine reputation based on prudence, to a figure loathed, reviled and blamed chiefly for the economic recession which is battering Britain, like some storm over the Cape peninsula.
…
Another issue of enormous concern is that the government appears to have lost control of its borders. Immigrants, many of them illegal, have flocked in, attracted by the ludicrously expensive and over-generous benefits scheme, causing a great drain on the public purse. When Afghanis and Iraqis risk death from suffocation inside metal containers transplanted halfway across the world just to get to Britain, refusing to seek asylum in countries like Italy or France, which are nowhere near as generous in their welfare hand-outs, plainly much is wrong with Britain’s system. Yet even after 12 years of Labour rule, the problem persists.
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=24&art_id=vn20090628054237282C260900
273. wage slave
I think Nick Clegg has to be at the front of the Queue for ‘coughing up’ up the dough! I know it is a tough one for LD members to swallow but the £2.4 Million Michael Brown money needs tapping out of LD Members!
I am sure you would like to give a hand in this matter?
263. What’s this hostility towards Peter the Punter? His posts are amongst the most interesting hereabouts.
255 - do you not get out much??
271.
Deport Al Fresco to Rockall!!
Unseat deportly Eric Pickles!!!
Deport was buzzin wiv goss baht Mandy and GideO’s ‘boarding party’.
Our political parties would quickly run out of cash big style if we brought in a policy of ‘deportashuns’.
You’re right, I feel so much better already.
259 - the important thing Martin is that OECD say our debt hits 90% NEXT YEAR.
Southam likes to bang on about honesty, this Government would have us believe debt peaks in 2013 at 79%
279 Well done. You’re getting the idea!
272 Morris Dancer
The airwaves this weekend have been full of ministers making policy announcements.
When the interviewer tries to pin down specifics on difficult awkward points they are now using the get-out of “Well, I can’t talk about that, Speaker Bercow won’t like it”.
It’s probably ineffective for more than a few days. Still galling though.
The fact is that there is a blurry line between ‘vision’ and ‘detail’ - and ministers are exploiting that line in a deeply cynical way.
The Conservatives will behave in exactly the same way if they get in. The simply fact is that the news schedules aren’t particularly geared towards afternoon policy announcements.
re 274 does anyone think much of Shaun Woodward?
269 - mhhh - the press seem to think thats exactly what it means.
I’m sure Gordon is to honest to allow that misconception to persist amongst the poorer white sections of our country eh?
283 - Chris, apparently Gordon Brown does.
260 - Pretty Sensible post.
FYI - local does not equal white.
Of course that is right.
Unless of course it is the Lib Dems Parliamentary Party, where sadly the effect of “local” seems to mean all white.
283. I believe Shaun Woodward has a very high opinion of him.
Al Fresco - please tone your language down.
280. I just think that the Labour Government is the most expensive comedy ever seen on TV! The cast are all B movie and you can work the plot out months in advance!
re 283. The people who have a high opinion of Shaun Woodward are the same ones who had a high opinion of David when they selected him was Woodward’s successor for the Witney seat.
289 - Martin, I’ve always thought they were more like a very bad porno. Not a comedy.
Someone get the site nurse for “Al(tercation) Fresco !!
Meanwhile ….
239 John O. Indeed. Except the big bang period of PB when the yellow peril ran amok there’s always been a tidy number of Conservatives on the site - Most of them quite sane !!
Of course Jacobites outnumber all comers. They just don’t know it !!
289 - not a comedy Martun, what is unfolding is a national tragedy.
290 - Ouch.
289.
Unfortunately the ‘big alternative’ to this ‘Neighbours’ we are being sold is Chammy’s clammy ‘Home and Away’
SO - ”Local does not equal white.”
Which is why it is dog whistle politics aimed at whites. The only people who get priority and live outside the local area are asylum seekers, some released prisoners and the rare person who needs state protection (battered wife/witnesses etc).
All of the above are rare and make no substantial difference to social housing issues.
271 (AF) - None of that post would make any difference to housing issues. One million east europeans came, many went. Yet housing issues are no different today than they have been for years.
238 The Guardian, while disapproving of his execution, didn’t consider him a martyr; nor did contemporaries, or people today, view him in the same light as Joan of Arc, or Bishop Ridley.
On the substance of the Treason Act 1351, I’m pretty sure that a foreign national, living in England, who left on the outbreak of war to fight for France, would not have been considered a traitor (albeit, he might have been killed out of hand if he was captured and couldn’t come up with a ransom). In fact, there were French lords who held lands in England who did precisely that.
289 - Martin, I’ve always thought they were more like a p0rn0. As the poor taxpayer is constantly shafted. And charged for the privilege.
280 So Chancellor Darling (on Mandy’s instructions?!?) has to run away from issuing any meaningful numbers until the other side of the election - maybe 10+ months away - because the budget revisons from those issued a few months ago will be (a) scary as all hell and (b) completely undermine any case Gordon might try and make at the election.
This is no way to run a country.
Everybody - meet Helena Hand-Cart….
This is a LOCAL house for LOCAL people!!!
Afternoon all,
On the substance of the thread, personally I would regard ousting Brown (which effectively it would be whatever the cover story) must now be considered a ‘Hail Mary’ pass that has immense complexities and questions hanging over it.
Firstly, would any senior member of the party want to lead the party into the election after the last two years? I don’t see it. Better to throw the dice at the GE under Brown and wait and see what is left after the carnage.
Furthermore, can Labour do what over the past 12 months they have been completely unable to do? Can they manipulate their party rules and Brown in such a way to get rid of Brown? Will other potential candidates (Harman, Milliband etc) sit quietly by and let Johnson take the crown either in a mock election or unopposed? Remember, Johnson has already been beaten once under party voting rules.
Furthermore, even if Johnson can surpass such hurdles can he project himself over the nation in a few months (based on Nick P’s comments) when there will be a cacophony of demands from the media and the electorate for a General election within 6 months and jubilation that Brown has gone. Can he overcome the fact that he has been at best sitting silently on the sidelines, at worst a loyal minister to Brown?
Even if Johnson can, what is he going to say that is different from what Labour have been doing? I notice from Nick Palmers posts that he tries to trivialise and seperate Labour’s dire economic record and the ‘positive reasons’ for voting Labour. However, I believe much of what NickP would describe as the ‘positive reasons’ have been part of what has directly led to the current dire economic situation (i.e. Labours innefficient profligacy and in some cases triviality) we are now experiencing.
Much of what needs to be done is reversing what has been done in the last 12 years and longer. It might be labelled as ‘Change’ and certainly at its heart it will be a massive change (i.e. real decentralisation) from the decades long centralisation that Governments have indulged in. Is Johnson really going to undo what his predecessors have done? Furthermore, he will have precious little time to develop his manifesto.
And even if he does pull together a relatively coherent manifesto it is likely to resemble the approach that it is already being put forward by either the Conservatives or Libdems. I cannot see that Labour can provide any radical alternative unless they keep Brown’s disasterous ’spend ourselves into oblivion’ approach which is a vote loser.
In my opinion, whilst I have no doubt Johnson is a competent and fairly affable member of the political class, I don’t see him having the wow factor, the financial nouse or the ingenious policies to pull the General Election out of the fire. He may save a few seats and manage to salvage some sort of feeling of respectability for the Labour Party but that’s it.
On one final note, someone upthread suggested that in defeat at the General Election, Brown might stay on. I cannot think of anything that the Conservative Party and David Cameron would relish more than being able to identify the man responsible for the countries woes and possibly Labour’s worst defeat in history sitting across from him on the opposition benches. Every time Cameron announced a contentious money saving measure he could gesture to Brown. Such a tactic could be milked for a couple of years or more. It won’t happen. If Brown stays on (still my preference) and loses the election, he will be gone in days IMO.
283. Isn’t he quite popular among young people?
290.
My sides split open mike! 
Dont think you will be laughing when the Liberal Democrat party caucuses in a Yellow Taxi this time next year!
Woodward has done the Tories an emense favour, he vacates a safe seat for the best person to carry the Tories to a GE victory whilst Woodward advises Brown to dogmatically advocate and defend abslote rubbish policy (10%)! Even the LD have changed with the wind on cuts! LD are funny they are so extreme - In 1997 they wanted more on Tax than Labour and now they are trying to decieve folk about the cuts they will advocate. Michael Brown may have conned the people into donating their money to the LD but i dont think the LD will trick the country on spending!
It seems amazing that the government can call off the spending review. The budget projections were on the optimistic side, and if they had a review they’d have to admit that. However even with the budget figures we’d have been due the 7%/10% cuts. If the figures were adjusted to take account of the reduced likely growth we’d surely be looking at something in the 10-15% range. So rather than address this the government sticks it head in the sand. Surely this is a new low even for Brown.
Labour are doomed, DOOMED at the next election!
Gordon Brown = Alan Johnson = Neil Kinnock
294.
Blue and pink luvvies are joining together for a blockbuster stage version of their soft ’soap’ to be premiered in the West End next June. This Balls/GideO production has a tentative non-working title of ‘Second Home and Toadally Away wiv da Fairies’. Rumours are it will be bankrupt even before the show opens.
302 Imagine if BP issued a trading statement which said
“trading conditions are difficult; yet we are continuing to run with our price projections of $150 a barrel for 2H 2009 - with prices rising through to 2020 at 5% per annum. We shall continue to proceed with increasing capacity and will borrow as much as we can - at whatever price - to meet our ambitious growth targets. We will give you further updates as and when the Board sees fit - but not before June 2010.
It’s going to be all right. Trust us. (Although we have had to suspended dividends until 2025.)
Oh - and Shell smell!!”
That is about the level of management we have at the top of UK plc right now.
301.
Woodward’s lips pursed against Gordo’s ear; Chamereon’s in Norman Lament’s. Which Tory lips would you prefer to have pressed to your skull (Mad Nad’s apart, natuarally)?
Anyone who thinks Johnson would make a big difference as Labour leader should read Mandelson’s interview in the FT:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f86d032-63d6-11de-a818-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Dishonest though it is, there’s no denying his talent. And that in turn demonstrates very clearly that Johnson, Miliband and the others are political pygmies in comparison.
To make a difference, Labour needs to find itself a leader of Mandelson’s ability but Johnson’s honesty.
No obvious candidates come to mind at the moment.
295 “Someone get the site nurse for “Al(tercation) Fresco !!
Perhaps I could use your nurse.
302 The weakness in Mandelson’s argument that things are so uncertain you cannot say what the review would accomplish is rather undermined by the fact the Government have forecast the totals - the question is what the division of remaining spoils will be. So its not about absolute figures but what if any Departments will have growth and which will see huge cuts.
The strategy seems to be to press the Conservatives for detail, so that Labour can exploit fears but its difficult to accuse your opposition of hding the truth when you are quite blantantly doing the same. Not that it stops Balls and Mandelson.
With the re-launch today and the difficulty of holding the line for another 10 months, isn’t it surely sign of hope for green shoots and an Autumn election?
312.
“No obvious candidates come to mind at the moment.”
So we’re stuck with Mandy because Vince Cable insists on playing for the other side? I wonder if Chamereon’s total copying of Bliar will involve a plane trip with Clegg to Ulan Bator and a false promise of the Chancellorship for Vince C?
300. In danger of anachronism there…wouldn’t the key thing in the 14th century have been the primary feudal allegiances of an individual? Might have been very complex in some cases given the overlapping loyalities some individual had due to holding land from multiple overlords.
313.
“Perhaps I could use your nurse.”
UR John Redwood and I claim my UKP 5!
So sorry! Alan Johnson is not made in leadership mould; in fact a born loser.
312. Richard
Not everyone is quite so impressed with Mandy
http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/2009/06/29/mandelson-the-lord-high-executioner-on-royal-mail/
312
ACL Blair
294.
“..more like a very bad porno…”
It is reassuring to know that in Habib this site has such an expert in these matters.
294.
“..more like a very bad p0rno…”
It is reassuring to know that in Habib this site has such an expert in these matters.
316. By the 14th century nearly all the overlapping feudal lordships had been unravelled with the exception of foreign monastic houses which held land in England. Their lands were largely confiscated at the beginning of the Hundred Years War and redistributed often to new English monastic creations.
The main unravelling of non-ecclestastical lands took place in the years after the loss of Normandy in 1204 when families with lands on both sides of the Channel had to choose to whom they should pledge their allegiance. Many families chose to split their lands between an English and a Norman branch, while others simply gave up their Norman or English lands and were often compensated in return.
318 weathercock. Not too sure anyone who holds cabinet rank and one of the great offices of state might be termed a “born loser”.
Alan Johnson = Nick Clegg
Talked up by party hacks and the media but will be equally out of his depth!
Clegg likes his Grubb as well! All £400 a month until Skeleton ousted Kennedy and then like a scene in the film Jason and the argunaunts - Clegg despatched Skeleton whilst Huhne took the Biscuit!
“I also think that Johnson has a good sense of what will resonate with the public and what will not. Back in February I highlighted the then health secretary’s plan for dealing with Cameron. Accept that the Tory leader is sincere but put the focus on the rest of his party.”
Mike, it would be too little, too late IMHO. If the Labour party had changed leader earlier, and chosen someone like Johnson, then yes, I think they could have given the Tories a run for their money. They may well hope that a new leader at the last minute might give them enough of a poll bounce to deny the Tories a majority, but the emphasis will be entirely different from that summer recess poll boost enjoyed by Brown back in 2007.
We will be in the run up to a GE, and the voters will be more interested in what the parties are proposing to do after that GE, especially with the economy. I don’t think that a new leader will have the time to present a vision of their future direction or policy that will be credible, and again it will lack legitimacy if there is not a proper debate in the Labour party.
The other point that should be remembered, the Tories can just as easily turn the focus on the rest of this Labour government and its track record. That is how much things have changed since Cameron became leader, and the damage that Brown caused in the last couple of years should not be underestimated.
Cameron might be more popular than his party, but he has successfully detoxed the whole brand over the last 3/4 years, when, and how are the Labour party going to manage that trick with less than a year to go to the next GE? Everyday that Brown remains in power, it damages his government and his party further. Changing leaders at the last moment before a GE as a second leader/PM stands down, will smack of desperation and a government well past its sell by date.
320 bono
Certainly Blair meets one of the two requirements, which I suppose is one more than Brown.
316 It could be tricky if you owed allegiance to two Kings who went to war with each other.
Basically, it was considered reasonable to renounce allegiance to one (and surrender your lands to him, at least for the duration of the war) while fighting for the other.
319.
“Peter Mandelson’s disclosure that there isn’t going to be a comprehensive spending review this side of a general election is a king-size clanger… ”
But, unfortunately, on the Tory bench the lead on ‘hard sums’ is being taken by his friend Tiny Clanger.
Could Mandy’s perennial mail problems be Postgategate?
No Mike, I shall not “moderate my language”. There is nothing to moderate. I do not abuse anyone here. I tell the truth. You say nothing to those who insult me. You own this site - and you are a hypocrite.
So, ahh didums…you dont like the truth. Is it too shocking. Your 3 delicate flowers have chased off one more poster that they disagree with. Never mind. I’ll get my coat.
For 12 years I have been highlighting Labour’s corruption, incompetence and treacherous contempt of the British Kingdoms, their people, their history and their values. Now, I have seen it all. So, i am not angry anymore.
Ahh yes…I first started writing on political forums in the late 90s - when I really was angry. People like that always chased off the “politically impure”. But now, people like me, are the majority.
My work to alert the people is done now. I can now take a back seat. The populus has awoken from its collective slumber and shall wreak their political revenge on Labour.
So I’ll be off, metaphorically crack open a beer and watch the show.
327 Sean Fear. Sundry Royal Princes and Dukes during WWI spring to mind.
325 - Cameron might be more popular than his party, but he has successfully detoxed the whole brand over the last 3/4 years
Unfortunately, his commitment to go into the election campaign with a shadow cabinet full of expenses cheats will not help the brand.
Gordon Brown’s bid to re-launch his premiership was overshadowed today as the Tories accused him of being dishonest with the public and it emerged key spending decision will be put off until after the next election.
The Prime Minister is tearing up the rules in a bid to win back Labour’s working class heartlands, where support has grown for the far-Right British National Party.
He will later unveil a string of far-reaching plans including allowing British-born families to jump ahead of immigrants and asylum seekers in the queue for council housing.
But the Tories moved to pre-empt the re-launch with a vicious attack on the Government and Mr Brown’s leadership, claiming he has operated under a ‘pattern of deception’ ever since taking power in 2007.
David Cameron said there was a ‘thread of dishonesty’ running right through his Premiership as the row over public spending between the two parties escalated.
He said: ‘I don’t care what the Government does any more. They can announce cuts; they can announce increases; they can set the whole thing to music and do a karaoke.
‘I’ve completely lost faith, and I think most of the country has lost faith, in anything this Government says.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196195/Labour-vows-Britons-council-house-queue-bid-win-voters-far-Right.html
324.
“Talked up by party hacks and the media but ..equally out of his depth”
Didnae do Chamereon any harm.
What I don’t understand about prople like you and Ashley/Toynbee et al at the Grauniad is why you are constantly trying to devise a means by which Labour might retain a hold on power at the next election. I understand that you have a pathalogical hatred of the Tories, bordering on the irrational, but what is it about this tired, discredited shell of a political party, devoid of ideas, inspiration or true political ideology, that makes you think they can in any way be the answer to the country’s ills, when it is abundantly clear that, after twelve years of spurned opportunities and public sector waste on a quite extraordinary scale, they are clearly the source of most of our problems?
Can you not see that, like the Tories in ‘97, there is a huge proportion of the electorate who may have given New Labour the benefit of the doubt in the last three elections, but will simply not be hoodwinked again? Anyone who does not recognise that the public sector finances in this country are in critical danger of collapse is simply choosing not to see, and the idea that the architects of the disaster we all now face, are somehow best placed to get us out of this mess, is simply laughable.
I have no idea whether the Tories can do a better job. They certainly can’t do worse. But this constant search for a means of avoiding electoral oblivion, for no other reason than a desire to keep a hold of power, or to keep anyone else for getting hold of power, is simply pathetic.
A bit more honesty about the chaos wrought by this government and a desire to see something better, would frankly be the very least I would expect from one of this country’s foremost political bloggers.
Forgive me butting in! I used to blog on Nick Robinson’s BBC forum, at least whenever the Bolshie moderators allowed me to. I contributed under the nom de plum Phoenixarisen and then one sad day I received the following email:
Dear BBC Visitor
Thank you for your email.
Your account was first premoderated in October for disrupting the boards
by involving yourself in personal arguments with other board members.
Subsequent account were closed as you appeared to have reregistered in
order to avoid premoderation.
Your account was finally closed on Jun 9th due to you reposting messages
that had already been removed for breaking House Rules.
For messages that have broken House Rules, please refer to your
moderation email.
Please note that once banned, users are not permitted to return to the
boards.
Regards,
Central Communities Team.
The irony is that I had many good ‘friends’ on the forum, we sometimes agreed and at others disagreed, exactly as a good debate should be. I wasn’t politically correct, and Nanny BBC has been out to get me for some time and have now succeeded. I wanted to write one last blog to the many good pals I had made over some time, to let them know I hadn’t forgotten them, but the BBC, who take our public money would not allow this. The BBC have lied when they say I had ‘personal arguments’, but then the BBC are masters at concealing and misrepresenting news. I wonder how much public money is wasted on their Starsi style moderators? Actually, this blog is much better, not only is it freer, but consequently is wittier and far more intelligent.
328.
Rubbish from you as usual !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
331.
“his commitment to go into the election campaign with a shadow cabinet full of expenses cheats ”
They should jopin a trade Union. Then we could have “one out…all out!” ?
196 Interesting comments on the lack of quality left-wing posters on the site up thread. Touching concern that there is a lack of left-wing ideas and analysis.
Whilst there may be some truth in this, I can’t say I am particularly blown away by quality of the stuff coming from the right either.
Politics in general, on both sides, seems to resemble two drunks fighting over the dregs of an increasingly empty can of Tennants Super Strength. Recently, there are no really big forward looking ideas out there from either party.
Maybe these new “vision” documents will change that.
331 - I suppose you have rowed back from your jaw dropping smear the other night, but, what about the Labour cabinet tim and what about those Labour peers?
Harking back to the theme about the government’s dishonesty, and apologies if it’s already been mentioned, but the government is still in a spot of bother over those who lost out under the 10p tax fiasco - remember Gordon is convince no-one lost out.
Labour rebels are planning a revolt against the Finance Bill next month unless those who are still losers are compensated fully.
Frank Field, who has tabled the amendment with former Labour whip Greg Pope, told The Independent: “If enough Labour members show resolve, then all the 3.5 million losers from the 10p decision will at last get justice. Most of them are Labour voters; 3.5 million people is half the Labour vote at the 2005 election. So MPs can vote to save their seats.”
Mr Field said he was wrong to accept assurances from the Government last year that the problem would be sorted out: “The time for warm words is over; I shan’t fall for that trick again.”
Going back for a few seconds to Lansley’s infamous interview on the Today programme, my immediate thought on the plans he put forward for public spending (ring-fence NHS spending, schools and international development, and 10% off the rest) was that they are probably optimistic. And it turned out that they were based Government figures in the last budget, figures that very likely underestimate the seriousness of the UK financial position.
So Lansley’s ‘crime’ was the optimism of the pattern of public spending that he put forward. This creates a potential problem for the Conservatives in that voters may accept the level of cuts suggested by Lansley, but not something significantly worse.
But Labour is in a worse position: it seems quite unable to face up to the implications of its own inadequate financial projections, never mind a situation that is considerably worse. Nothing that he has done in the past suggests that Alan Johnson would change this situation.
331 tim, have you submitted that article to MS, or are you just going to keep moaning on about it? If you have, I look forward to reading a well balanced article examining the expenses claims on all sides of the political fence. I won’t be holding my breath.
335.
GideO’s Toryboty suffering from a little Premature Exclamation? Or is it PMT (Partying with Mandelson Tories)?
Labour’s more pressing need now is an explanation of what it offers for the future. When Nick Palmer attempted to give positive reasons for voting Labour,
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/04/18/guest-slot-nick-palmer-mp-the-case-for-labour/
it was noteworthy that they all referred to existing policies. I hope he would regard it as fair to say that his key sentence from that piece was the following:
“I want a government that is internationalist, handles the current crisis competently, and sets poverty (at home and abroad) and public services as its priorities.”
What Gordon Brown or Alan Johnson or any other Labour leader seeking re-election next time needs is to be able to complete the following in ten words or fewer: “My name is [Gordon Brown/Alan Johnson/hypothetical other Labour leader] and if you vote for me I will…”. Gordon Brown is seeking to answer this by reference to his experience as Chancellor of the Exchequer and with financial matters. If he goes, what will his successors use? I am not at all convinced that the Palmer prospectus would be listened to, still less swing votes.
Mandy does not have the power to get Brown to go early.
Perhaps only Ed Balls does - if he thinks the rest of his active political life will be in opposition
337.
“I can’t say I am particularly blown away by quality of the stuff coming from the right ”
Despite their constant ‘puff’ they can’t seem to source the Line right?
237. Martin Day - your Clegogram link made me laugh out loud at work!!
I think about 90% of the amusement value is your visceral hatred of Clegg and the Lib-Dems themselves, but the photoshopping with the pig was inspired.
283, 305. Yes, I understand that Shaun Woodward does a lot of important youth work in the rental sector.
I think there is a genuine worry in the minds of most Conservatives about what would happen if Labour got rid of Gordon Brown, hence the attempts by some today to rubbish him before he even gets out of the starting block.
A comparison can be made with Tony Blair and New Labour in 1996-7 who jumped at every shadow. They were scarred by years of opposition, false hope and public opprobrium that they could never quite believe what the polls were telling them: that they were going to win and win big.
The polls aren’t quite as certain for the Tories now as they were for Labour in 1996-7 (although the ICM polls which were the most accurate put the Labour lead in June-Sept 1996 at between 12 to 16 points compared to 12 and 15% Tory leads in their last two surveys this year) but there is still that underlying fear that the public still don’t really trust us again.
It will take the election result itself to prove that wrong and show that it is the Labour brand itself which is exhausted and that Brown is only the sympton of a wider malaise in the centre-left.
334-Central Communities Team.
A fully fledged department of the Thought Police. I too was banned from the site for not conforming to the ruling orthodoxy…
346. Seconded.
Another very funny image, Martin Day.
You are becoming the Thomas Rowlandson of photoshop.
280. I was quite upset to read the criticisms of Peter the Punter earlier too.
Peter is 2nd only to Mike Smithson in the quality of his analysis and the usefulness of his tips - I have made a lot of money listening to Peter. He is incredibly perceptive and intelligent. You ignore his words at your peril.
As an example to others, Peter is also an exceedingly well-mannered gentleman - we need more like him, not less.
So.. cut it out - all of you!
347.
“Shaun Woodward does a lot of important youth work in the rental sector.”
I never realised he was out so much. Does he come across Martin Day very often? In Martin’s position, perhaps he could give him a hand… or a job… or….?
We now have confirmation - not that we needed it - that Gordon Brown intends to put party before country in an attempt to save his political skin. This morning’s confirmation by Lord Mandelson that the three-year comprehensive spending review - a Brown invention, incidentally - is to be put on ice until after polling day is so very, very convenient. It means Labour can go into an election campaign unhampered by such trivia as an economic policy.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidhughes/100001371/lord-mandelson-and-the-politics-of-the-playground/
Not much Idea what you are talking about as the word “smear” has become so generalised on here it’s ceased to mean anything.
What I am saying is that Cameron has made a mistake by keeping all the expense cheats in position.
Does anyone disagree with me?
If anyone believes Johnson would make no difference, I can think of on very simple strategy now.
1.Become leader.
2.Sack all expenses cheats.
3.Run a campaign focusing strongly on the cheats Cameron expects to form his Cabinet.
348 Yes, that’s pretty much my assessment too, Andrew. Thanks for putting it so well.
345. Funny how you think previous drug use is a vote loser.
180,000 voters at Glastonbury at the weekend probably disagree.
339 Chris A
“Most of them are Labour voters; 3.5 million people is half the Labour vote at the 2005 election”
I don’t think much of Frank Fields arithmetic abilities then. Labour polled approximately 9.5 million votes! Field seems to have lost 2.5 million votes somewhere.
Are all Labour MP’s suffering from some collective innumeracy syndrome?
What I am saying is that Cameron has made a mistake by keeping all the expense in position.
Does anyone disagree with me?
If anyone believes Johnson would make no difference, I can think of on very simple strategy now.
1.Become leader.
2.Sack all expenses cheats.
3.Run a campaign focusing strongly on the cheats Cameron expects to form his Cabinet.
Is it me or do others also think Wage Slave is as bad if not worse than Tim ?
“Asked [at his presser this morning] whether he was prepared to go into the next election with the Conservative party proposing public spending cuts while the government pledged to increase spending, Cameron replied: “I don’t care what the government does any more. They can announce cuts, they can announce increases, they can set out whatever they want. Set the whole thing to music and do a karaoke. I have lost faith in a prime minister who stands up and says black is white. We will make our own decisions about what’s right for the country.”"
Hah. You tell ‘em, Dave.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/29/cameron-personal-attack-brown
358. “black or white” : Gordo = Jacko (Labour are DOOMED ?)
352. He could offer Martin a good solid stable starting position for a future career?
Maybe Martin could come in the back door and work his way up?
346. Casino Royale
I dont really hate Clegg unlike Brown but i see LD and Clegg as fair game and it amuses me how worked up they get! 
350. SeanT Thank you!
Laughter is something i love and when you can unite politics with it, that is great!
358, 359 - If he was going to reference Michael Jackson songs, wouldn’t he have done better to name-check Smooth Criminal? Marks deducted for respondents suggesting Off the Wall or In the Closet.
343
Spot-on, antifrank. Johnson has come up with some sensible statements about how Labour should attack the Conservatives, but that won’t take them very far. I’d say that, of all the putative candidates, only Ms Harman has offered anything by way of a political vision or clear direction.
And of course, the other problem is that a radical shift of direction at this late stage opens them up to the charge of ‘why didn’t you do/say that before?’
It’s interesting that the main items on the policy shopping-list of our Labour friends who despair of Brown are repudiations of existing Labour policies (ID cards, Trident, Royal Mail).
Going into an election on a platform of ‘Vote for us because we have finally realised that we were wrong all along on policy, and chose a disastrous leader’ is a tricky proposition.
357. Almost, but at least wageslave has a job (or, so I’m guessing, from the name..)
362. Are we talking about Brown or Woodward now?
357. Ah but Wage Slave is a self-admitted champagne fuelled Tory Boytoy. He is a rather ridiculous Baldrick style court jester in comparison to Tim’s ‘Grimer Wormtongue’.
363 - By keeping his expenses cheats in the Shadow Cabinet, Cameron has left a big opportunity for Johnson if he were to become leader.
He clears out any remaing troughers in the Cabinet and campaigns, partly, on not returning a Conservative Party which would be run by a cabinet of troughers and a leader that didn’t tackles the cheats when he had the chance.
352. & 360.
I think i am a bit long in the tooth to be a Rent Boy! In Blackadder, the Rent Boy sequence involved hanging around the docks! Well i am not keen on the smell of fish and docks are usually full of seamen………
351 Many thanks, Casino, you are most kind - but fear not! I can fight my own battles. If I failed to respond to the dememented Fresco, it was only because posters of that ilk are not worth powder and shot.
Thanks again for the support though.
Beginning to think Browns next ‘vision’ will be to postpone the GE indefinitely on the grounds that it’s no time for novices. All statistics on the economy will be held back as they are ‘unsure’. A new foreign affairs department to be set up to help the rest of the world follow Britains economic miracle economy. All communication of any sort to be monitored to ensure that we lead the way in cyber security. See you all in the gulag!
Your posters are right about Brown getting his revenge in before he goes. Those of us who live in Devon, Norfolk or Suffolk are fearful of the abortion of an unwanted local government reorganisation that this dying government might try to impose on us. This could be an important issue in the Norwich North By-Election as the Boundary Committee are due to publish their final report on 15th July.
358.
“I have lost faith in a prime minister who stands up and says black is white.”
Whereas Chamereon says “it’s all Bown”
But he tripped himself up when he said: “I don’t care what the government does…” Course he doesn’t - Brown’s version of Toryism doesn’t bother Chamereon and his crew in the least, does it?
367 A point you’ve made many times, tim. No one else, even on the left, seems to agree with you.
I think the truth is that anger about expenses is not focussed on individual MPs (with a couple of exceptions where there might have been something close to fraud), but is generalised to MPs as a whole. Labour would be absolutely mad to try to stir it up as a partisan issue, given that their record is the worst of the three main parties.
Here is Tims article for everyone to read now, sdave having to get Mike to put it up.
smear, smear, smear, indefinite article, adjective, smear, smear smear, adverb, smear, preopsition, smear, smear.
New para
etc
MODERATED
368.
” i am not keen on the smell of fish”
Then stay away from Mad Nad and Caroline Spelman’s briefs on their expenses.
362. I’ll only believe when Brown starts talking like Jacko:
“Nick Robinson: How do you feel about David Cameron calling you fundamentally dishonest?”
“Brown: Ugh. Oh Oooh.. Nick! Cha’mone!!!”
“Nick Robinson: Er.. Ok Prime Minister. What are your first reactions to your Norwich North defeat?”
“Brown: Oowwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
343.Antifrank, biggest mistake that an outgoing Gordon Brown would leave a new leader to deal with, the lack of a credible Comprehensive Spending Review ready to hit the ground running. That would immediately screw them in a GE campaign. Brown and Blair got away with so much in the run up to the last 3 GE’s, that they would be returned to power was never really in doubt on each occasion. And that was a key reason that they were able to get away with kicking so many policy decisions into the long grass post GE, just as they are attempting with the CSR this time around.
This GE will be much closer, and the outcome is uncertain, so the government will be under a lot more robust scrutiny than before. The media will be much more keen to report a real contest this time as well. Brown is not coming across, or being portrayed as credible or honest right now. And that perception is going to stick to the whole government like glue the longer it persists.
John Major still needed 18 months to raise his profile, set out his stall, before going onto achieve that elusive end of 3rd term GE victory.
372 - can you imagine how much time you’d save by not adding those two additional letters every time you type ‘Cameron’? Wouldn’t it be much more sensible to just spell his name correctly, and stop your silly little game?
368.
“i am a bit long in the tooth to be a Rent Boy!”
You make up for it by never knowingly giving short measure with the tongue!
376 - Who knows, he may enquire after his Education Secretary’s wellbeing with a high-pitched yelp: “Eddie are you ok, are you ok Eddie?”.
367. Interesting idea tim, but there are quite a few “troughers” still in the Cabinet aren’t there? Given that we have just had a large Cabinet reshuffle a few weeks ago, wouldn’t another one look like a headless chicken government?
Another problem for labour is that they have run through their ministerial “talent” in the Commons to such an extent that bob Aisnworth is now considered of Cabinet standard and there are more peers in the cabinet than at anytime since Churchill.
On government spending it’s sickening head-in-the-sand stuff from Labour now. Except it’s not that they can’t face facts, but that they know how bad things are but want to fool us into thinking it’s all fine.
What would any sensible household do when it doesn’t know its future income? Spend only what it knows it can afford, that’s what. Instead we have Labour rushing headlong into more spending with the sole aim of painting the Tories as the nasty cutting party. Utterly irresponsible. We so badly need a new government.
I presume Johnson supports the current Brown “investment v cuts” line of attack, in which case he is just as unfit to govern as the rest of them.
Can anyone remind me the last time one of Gordon’s initiatives lasted more than 48hrs?
I’m genuinely stumped.
355.
“180,000 voters at Glastonbury at the weekend probably disagree.”
Did THAT many of them meet Nick Clegg there?
373 - OK then.
Lets forget it.
Move along.
No one expected Cameron to clear anyone out of his Shadow Cabinet.
I could swear I read Tory posters on here convinced that Dave would act.
Must have all been a dream.
374 - I thought we’d agreed that your pointless responses to my posts would stop?
379. wage slave
I am sure you do!
367 “He clears out any remaing troughers in the Cabinet”
You make it sound like there is any doubt as to whether there are any troughers left in the Cabinet. IT IS STILL PACKED WITH THEM!
So Johnson is going to save “goodbye” to all the troughers, is he? And how do you think he is going to get the job in the first place if he promises that?
385
No Tim, I told you that every time you smear that I would point it out, your memory is faulty. I told you the remedy is in your hands.
387 - he’s going to give them a nice leaving present - an £8,000 letter folding machine.
357.
“as bad if not worse than Tim ?”
As in worse than Martin ‘Wayne’ Day Tim??
I think you answered this yourself in your Wayne post 245.
“Knowone is shouting….”
“Knowone is shouting….”
“Knowone is shouting….”
41 - Those who are arguing that Johnson has not achieved much should not forget he was orphaned at 12 and brought up by his sister, left his grammar school at 16, yet ended up leading one of the biggest unions in the UK. He has also now held many of the most senior posts in Cabinet. Surely we want a PM who is clearly intelligent or who has achieved something outside of politics, I would say Johnson has clearly made a mark outside the Commons and don’t forget his backing for repealing Clause 4 proved vital to Blair. I still think he will be Labour leader, but unless Brown fails to get any conference bounce in the autumn, probably not until Labour is defeated.
376. “Cha’mone”! hahaha. ROFL
388 - Point out a smear on this thread.
385 With all due respect, you’ve been offered a golden opportunity by Mike S to submit an article regarding the very points you’re trying to make, for consideration for publication. Rather than dismiss the whole thing out of hand, why don’t you just take him up on the offer?
380. Eddie then to come on stage and join Gordo singing?
“Yvette Coopers’ not my lover
She’s just a girl who claims that I am the one
But the Treasury is not my son
She says I am the one, but the Treasury is not my son”
376 Robinson: When can I get up off my knees, Prime Minister?
Brown: Don’t stop ’til you get enough…
396 - *gag*
374 MTF. Ooppps …. looks like you smeared tim !!
398
Aploogies to Mike it was a bit OTT
396. That sucked.
395 - Perhaps we can explain the month’s events. He sobbed “She’s out of my life” when Jacqui Smith resigned. Hazel Blears got the hint when he sang adapted lyrics about a Siberian Girl the next day. James Purnell’s shock resignation was greeted with a wistful rendition of One Day in Your Life. Caroline Flint stormed out of Government when Gordon winked and called her a Pretty Young Thing once too often. But the Parliamentary Labour Party and the Cabinet declined to Show Him The Way To Go.
396, hahaha.
396. Robinson: What do you want me to do with “it” Prime Minister?
Brown: Just Beat It, Beat It
Just Beat It, Beat It
Just Beat It, Beat It
Just Beat It, Beat It
383. “I’m genuinely stumped.” Plato, you’ve misread the spin again?
Q. Why are Gordon Brown’s cabinet subbing for England in the Ashes? A. Because when you ask for an honest innings, Gordon always breaches the boundaries and, even after repeated poor delivery, he always ends up with a maiden over.
Don’t blame it on the ID cards, don’t blame it on Iraq, don’t blame on public debt…..blame it on Brown…
396 your BAD
Imagine ‘Gordon Brown’s Thriller’
Brown wooing the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street — “I’m not like other guys.” — turns into werewolf and ravages her.
Brown as zombie.
Mandy’s wicked cackle on the soundtrack would put Vincent Price’s to shame!
Or — ‘Gordon Brown’s Bad’
“I’m BAAAAADDD!”
‘Nuff said
Other suitable hits:
‘Leave me alone’
‘Dangerous’
Surely Brown’s favourite is
“ABC - easy as 1,2,4,8,16,256″
405 - no no no “just blames it on the Tories”
391. HYUFD
I would say Johnson has clearly made a mark outside the Commons and don’t forget his backing for repealing Clause 4 proved vital to Blair. I still think he will be Labour leader, but unless Brown fails to get any conference bounce in the autumn, probably not until Labour is defeated.
I think that displays Johnson’s lack of judgement and his betrayal of his roots. The decline of Labour as a credible political party can be traced back to their Clause 4 moment when basically Blair ripped the heart out of the party (their link with the British worker) and replaced it with nothing more than a culture of spin, profligacy and vacuousity.
After all why is it that the Labour supporting working classes are so disenchanted with Labour. Labour cast them adrift.
Clause 4 is where the rot began……..
Mandy and Balls struggle over…
‘The PM is mine’
It is of course no secret that Gordon Brown’s favourite journalist is the man in the Mirror.
480 - Best so far!
403.
That would be PM Mandy rather than Gordo?
409:
Ok rewrite then….
‘don’t blame it on the public debt, don’t blame it on Iraq, don’t blame it on the last 12 years….
Blame it on Thatcher’
“No-one wants to be defeated”
Well that’s just too bloody bad eh, Browno?
414
No Mandy is the Smooth Criminal.
“Got to be starting something”….which started in America!
347 That could have been uttered by Kenneth Williams on “Round the Horne”.
But, still not as good as Kingsley Amis’s quip in the New Statesman “There are Tories at the bottoms of our guardsmen.”
415.
I just can’t, I just can’t
I just can’t control my debt
I just can’t, I just can’t (Yeah)
I just can’t (Woo) control my debt
Q. What’s the difference between Fred the Shred Goodwin and a US jailbird called Bernie? A. One’s made off with our money, the other’s sitting where Fred should be.
390
“Knowone”
Is that a pun I don’t get or are you illiterate? The word is no-one…
Oops make that:
“Wanna be starting something”….which started in America!
419 Sean F.
…. or the oft quoted Churchill quip when told that on one of the coldest nights of the year a Conservative MP and guardsman has been found “coupled” in Kensington Gardens :
“It rathers makes one proud to be British !!
348 “I think there is a genuine worry in the minds of most Conservatives about what would happen if Labour got rid of Gordon Brown”
Rather odd, then, that Labour haven’t “genuinely worried” the Tories by ditching him. It’s not like they haven’t had their chances…
425, only by constantly undermining the least popular Prime Minister in history can Labour hope to achieve a record breaking electoral massacre.
On the Gordo-Jacko links, I thought someone might have pointed out the third track on the Dangerous album.
“In the closet”.
417.
Unfortunately Jacko never got round to covering the Peter and Gordon hit ‘World without Love’ which had the apt opening line:
“Please lock me away….”
The true Tories on here of course prefer the Boy George (aka GideO) with his… ‘Chammma Chammma Chammma Chammma Chammma Chammeroen….’
424 LOL!
I always enjoyed reading Milton Shulman’s hostile review of “The Romans in Britain” in which he commented that “drooping private parts are the only sign that this is taking place in Britain in January.”
422.
““Knowone””
It was a (politically) illiterate Wayne original.
424 - I recall an MP recently claiming his large phone bills were down to “visiting the troops”.
Largactil less risky than demerol ?
There’s an awful lot of guff written and spoken about Johnson. If one 60 yr old Marxist replaces another 60 yr old Marxist to become our PM, then God help us.
299 - Absolute rubbish. In many inner city areas local people are non-white. There are substantial and long-standing Asian and Carribbean communities in most of our big cities.
433, but who could replace Brown?
We have:
A harpy man-hating, anti-white bigot (Harman)
A schoolboy (D. Milipede)
Someone even worse (Balls)
A spineless, likeable incompetent (Johnson)
Anybody else?
Hutton was quite competent and clever. Oh yes, he’s resigned.
427.
“Gordo-Jacko links”
….to the successful Bullingdon Upstairs Downstairs?
427.
“Gordo-Jacko links”
….to the successful Bu££ingdon Upstairs Downstairs?
no sh*t Sherlock. Some of these impact trackers by Politics home are very silly
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/jackson_death_overshadows_political_news.html
431.
““visiting the troops”.”
You about to blow the cover on some self-smearing hot Basra Knights?
Good news for the Tories.
Trougher Maude to step down.
Bad news for the Tories.
From all his jobs except the Shadow Cabinet.
http://www.mad.co.uk/Main/News/Articlex/6f2b562a8ffb47ca921e2854b41781fd/Maude-to-step-down-as-Mission-chairman.html
410 - Yup, that’s right. After all, the British working class had overwhelmingly supported Labour to four election defeats in a row.
410 Repeal of Claue 4 was vital in order to connect with the new middle class majority in Britain, remember under Wilson and Callaghan there was still a working class majority in the country.
Johnson, as a former union leader with a deprived background, is still able to connect with the tradional Labour base in a way Blair was not able to while having modernist credentials in order to appeal to the centrist floating voter. He is neither Old Labour or ultra-Blairite.
149 Well Johnson was the only Labour figure to cut Cameron to a hung parliament in the last ComRes poll and he also topped the last Luntz. Those who say Johnson is not a natural G20 figure should also ask themselves was LBJ, Carter, Reagan, George W, Berlusconi, Kruschev or the former union leader Lula in Brazil or Zuma in South Africa, let alone John Major or Jim Callaghan any more natural presidential or PM figures than Johnson?
410 Repeal of Clause 4 was vital in order to connect with the new middle class majority in Britain, remember under Wilson and Callaghan there was still a working class majority in the country.
Johnson, as a former union leader with a deprived background, is still able to connect with the tradional Labour base in a way Blair was not able to while having modernist credentials in order to appeal to the centrist floating voter. He is neither Old Labour or ultra-Blairite.
149 Well Johnson was the only Labour figure to cut Cameron to a hung parliament in the last ComRes poll and he also topped the last Luntz. Those who say Johnson is not a natural G20 figure should also ask themselves was LBJ, Carter, Reagan, George W, Berlusconi, Kruschev or the former union leader Lula in Brazil or Zuma in South Africa, let alone John Major or Jim Callaghan any more natural presidential or PM figures than Johnson?
New thread.
438 tim, written that article yet? Thought not. All talk, and no balls.
435 - How you can call Johnson spinless when you do not even put your real name to your posts is beyond me. He may not be of Prime Ministerial calibre but he has shown more guts in his life than most of the rest of us, and has achieved a whole lot more with it than, for example, the vast majority of the Tory frontbench.
NEW THREAD
300. Of course, I didn’t mean a religious martyr, but a political one nonetheless. Remember, prior to Joyce, we had not executed anyone for their opinions for over 200 years. Amery’s case was very different, in that he had actively recruited British POWs to fight on the side of the Germans. Clear Treason.
Joyce travelled to Germany in late August 1939, which was a perfectly legal thing to do. There was no evidence of the use of or even the existence of the passport beyond that date, but the jury was not allowed to address that question. Instead, a witness from the passport office was produced to claim that Joyce could have renewed it for just a week, rather than the customary year, and the jury were directed that therefore Joyce was still under the “protection” of the passport when he started working for the Germans.
The sole witness to Joyce’s “treason” was a retired copper, who claimed he heard Joyce’s voice, on a day he couldn’t remember, on a wavelength he couldn’t recall, sometime in October 1939. The 1351 Treason Act had been changed to fit Joyce’s case, to secure a conviction on this flimsy evidence.
As I said, a total stitch-up.
450
Breeding will out.