Does this blow apart Gord’s “10% cuts” rhetoric?
June 26th, 2009
What does he do now in the face of these numbers?
Thanks to Andrew Sparrow in the Guardian for spotting the above numbers in the latest YouGov poll for they seem to blow a big hole in Brown’s core general election strategy - to reduce the argument down to a choice between “Labour investment” and “Tory cuts”.
The key premise of the Brown approach is that voters will believe that by curtailing budgets to key services then inevitably those services will suffer. But what if voters don’t believe it - where does Brown’s plan stand then?
So in the poll a remarkable 77% thought it was “possible to cut spending by 10% by running public services more efficiently, without reducing their quality or cutting the level of welfare spending..” against just `14% who said it wasn’t.
That seems a remarkable split and I just wonder whether this is another manifestation of public reaction to the MPs expenses scandal. Having looked at the approach those who govern us to spending public money on themselves there is even more scepticism about their ability to use our taxes efficiently.
All this seems to suggest that Brown’s approach, already under fire from many of his colleagues, is far from being the election saver that he was hoping for.
Has he got the imagination and/or flexibility to come up with something else? You wouldn’t bet on it for once he’s got an argument in his head it’s very difficult to shift it.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First?
Second.
third?
I think it would occur to most people who have even the most passing dealings with the public sector that there are many areas which could sustain cuts of at least 10% (if not more) without affecting ‘front line’ services.
Wonderful stuff this.
Brown picks a lie to build his entire anti-Tory line on and to try to defend his ill-gotten position of power and, not only does the electorate not believe that he’s telling the truth, they don’t even believe the premise of the lie in the first place.
You couldn’t make it up.
W00t!
So the polling evidence suggests that the public considers that cuts are (a) necessary, and (b) possible without reducing quality of service.
Prediction: by the Smithson-Thomas rule, Brown will persist with the “Tory cuts” line.
It’s almost as if Brown’s very line of the attack is acting as Tory party propaganda.
Excuse me, I have some urgent laughing to do.
The fact a person believes a painless 10% cut is possible doesn’t mean they trust any particular politician to do it.
A believe successful open heart surgery is possible but wouldn’t trust Dewhursts to carry it out in a relatively pain-free manner.
There were two main issues the Conservatives stood on at GE2005. Govt waste and Immigration.
Both of these issues are matters that the voters have shifted to the Conservatives policy lines.
But “told you so” may not guarantee a victory.
FPT 318 - Gasman, you misunderstood my “only” (my words were ambiguous). Why the Conservatives aren’t something closer to 1/10 or more is what baffles me. I’d have thought the Conservatives are a safer bet in this seat than Labour is in Barking, and Ladbrokes quote 1/12 for that.
Brown’s arsenal is pretty bare: he can’t bring in any more spending or brave new initiatives, he can’t do a big pre-election giveaway.
So other than trying to paint Labour as better than the Tories, he’s stuck.
It’s a “Trust the liar, not the thief.” scenario
Gordon Brown has no imagination, no ideas and no vision. He can’t get past the slogans, threats and empty promises that worked in 1997, 2001 and 2005 and simply doesn’t get that the electorate have moved on.
He shares the problem with the Liberal Democrats.
I think Mike is right about the MPs’ expenses scandal influencing perception on the whole issue of profligacy in the public sector - especially amongst Labour voters.
Of course efficiency savings are possible, but they are not certain or perhaps even probable. I imagine people think the Conservatives are much more likely to be able to deliver savings than Labour - after all Labour are presiding over the inefficiences currently. I find it hard to believe that anyone doubts that real cuts will be needed somewhere along the line though. Brown is just delusional - We’ll get tax rises and 15% or so cuts under Labour. What’s he doing though? Announcing 60 billion of new spending - admittedly it’s not all UK taxpayers money this time - to be honest we’re looking a bit dried out - now he’s soaking the rest of the world.
One note of caution: just because the public believe that it is possible doesn’t mean that they think that the Tories will achieve it.
Second note of caution: those members of the public who do not think that it is possible might still think it desirable to cut public spending by 10% (I am in this category).
Third note of caution: the Conservatives would suffer if they came to power with the public believing that painless 10% cuts were possible, if pain was then indeed felt.
For all that, after all three notes of caution, these are surely the numbers that will win the Conservatives the next election.
In the UK most people tend (sweeping generalization here) to regard public spending or ‘investment’ in the abstract. They don’t connect it directly with what comes out of their pay each month.
Maybe now people are looking at just how much of their money is taken from them and are starting to link what they are being relieved of with what the government is throwing around, and seeing that they are not getting good value for their money.
If that is the case then Brown’s future is bleak indeed. His whole raison d’etre for the last 12 years has been a rapacious assault on the electorate’s money and a profligate and reckless pumping of huge amounts of money into the public sector.
“Rafsanjani set to back Khamenei” ???
From Nico Pitney, of the HuffPo :
‘Mohammad KaramiRaad, the representative of Kermanshah in Iranian Parliment, claims that Rafsanjani will soon declare his support for Khamenei…’” …
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/26/iran-uprising-live-bloggi_n_221270.html
I’ve begun to re-buy Ahmadi…
Hear that?
That strange syncopation?
It’s the sound of Cabinet members’ foreheads hitting the Cabinet table…
Oh my, what a surprise! Yet another demonstration of why Labour are fucked.
It’s just too easy. I’m beginning to think they actually want to lose the next election.
Hooray! I am back in front of a computer. We’ve just bought a holiday cottage which requires tons of renovation, so no tv, no computer, just hard slog. I’ve read a bit of PB/news on my mobile, but just not the same.
Many, many hearty congratulations Marcia. I am absolutely delighted! I assume that the Sidlaw bit includes Newtyle? I used to live there and canvassed the village and environs pretty comprehensively for Pete Wishart. I have never, ever canvassed an area with such overwhelming SNP support. It was almost spooky. It was like SNP-ville
13 “especially amongst Labour voters”
Bang on, Richard. The notion of the poorest workers in our society, being punched in the face by Labour over the 10p tax fiasco - to simply fund wasteful publlic services - that one will really hurt come the election. Why the hell should Labour’s working poor come out to support them?
15. 10% reductions is at the minimum levels necessary to even look like we are turning around the public finances.
19 - thanks, as the late Frank Ellis was a good friend I owed it to him for all the work he did in the ward over the years. So I didn’t mind campaigning each day since 6 June. Re Newtyle, no it does not go that far as I think that is just in Perthshire. The boundary stops at Auchterhouse/Tealing way.
Our Jimmy is doomed as he continues to dream up yet more taxation to wreck the likes of BA. 800 people reported to be working for nothing to help The Company, then our Jimmy says, “Great, I’ll double the passenger tax to help you along”. Unbelieveable man and Government.
15. Antifrank.
Quite right many don’t think the Conservatives can achieve it but then again even less believe that Labour would achieve it. From the poll:
If Labour felt it had to reduce public spending by up to ten per cent(10%). Do you think it would manage to do so while preserving the quality of public services and the level of welfare benefits or would it not manage to achieve this?
Labour would manage to maintain quality of services and level of benefits 17
Labour would not manage to do so 63
Don’t know 20
Compared to:
If a Conservative government felt it had to reduce public spending by up to ten per cent (10%)… Do you think it would manage to do so while preserving the quality of public services and the level of welfare benefits or would it not manage to achieve this?
Conservatives would manage to maintain quality of services and level of benefits 27
Conservatives would not manage to do so 49
Don’t know 24
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/DT-toplines_JUNE.pdf
As with most of the supplementary questions they are not wonderful for the Conservatives but they are more positive for them than they are for Labour.
Link provides a link to the full detail as usual…….
As 10% cuts would just be some of the waste nobody would notice,why not more?
Mr Smithson, sir - did you mean “he’s got an argument in his hard…”? Freudian slip showing?
This poll seems to show that the more Brown attempts to lay the stress on “Tory cuts” the more voters will think “sounds as if they’ve got the right idea after all” and the better showing the Tories will make!
FPT - marcia - you omitted the +/- change from the last time the Monifieth & Sidlaw ward was contested (May 2007 -> the SNP’s record high point):
Result - Monifieth & Sidlaw by-election (Angus Council) 2009
(+/- change from 2007)
SNP (Jean Lee) 2486 68.6% (+10.1)
Con 698 19.3% (-0.3)
LD 439 12.1% (+5.0)
___________________
Did not stand:
Lab 0% (-13.6)
Ind 0% (-6.2)
So, the Labour voters went about two thirds SNP and one third Lib Dem. Sounds intuitively about right.
Overall an absolutely cracking result for the SNP. Puts a real spring in the step.
“for once he’s got an argument in his hard it’s very difficult to shift it” [?!]
in his head, too…
I was saddened to hear Diane Abbott last night saying that this argument appeals to the “labour base”. This is news to me and it reveals the patronising attitude to labour supporters which underlies the Brown/Balls approach. The other cabinet members are despairing, I believe.
28. Despairing and disappearing
re 28 indeed
A question worth asking in the next opinion poll would be: “Is a 10% cut in public expenditure enough?” I suspect a majority, mindful of their tax bill, would answer ‘no’. Even public servants pay taxes, and they can see the waste at first hand.
If Gordon can’t play ‘I’m going to spend more than you’, he’s going to get the right hump.
27 Stuart, the Independent candidate in 2007 was the Tory candidate yesterday.
29, reminds me of Princess Leia’s riposte to Grand Moff Tarkin.
“The more you tighten your grip the more voters will slip through your fingers.”
Mike’s basic argument appears sound, based on the polling he cites.
Also on the fact that every indication points to fact that the Prime Minister and his merry band of sub-average hacks clearly inhabits their own personal timewarp. Where it’s still the very late 20th century, or leastways pre-9/11.
They kept saying that the Toff offensive was aimed at building up the Labour base. But really it’s much more a reflection of their own self delusion. Because base Labour voters just aren’t that fecking stupid. Granted that Tory MPs exposure (financial and attitudinal) in the parliamentary expenses scandal does get some old juices following. BUT the hotshots of New Labour (plus a few old Old Labour chislers) have somewhat mucked up the nostaligic anti-toffism dreged up by the likes of Hogg and his fellow piggies.
WRT the thread question. That is because the electorate does not have perfect information. Had they, they would understand that it is impossible to cut spending by 10 per cent while preserving service levels. Every govt says they can do it, none succeed. When parties come under serious questioning as an election nears, the penny drops for most voters.
And I thought Gordon was meant to be a ‘great strategist’ when it came to campaigning?
Seems clearer every day that he only ever had one idea - spend and bribe - now the money has run out - no one believes him.
This is my favourite poll of the month
36
For the first time in history, I think you are wrong, and it rather depends on what you refer to as “services”. The amount of waste in the last 12 yrs is truly unimagineable. What was that about a million quid to send one family home??
35. SSI
The Labour leadership has long lost touch with traditional core Labour voters although some like Balls and the Milipedes were never in touch with it to begin with.
The ideas they come up with ‘Toffs’, ‘Tory Cuts’, ‘British Jobs For British Workers’ are seen as patronising and lies and so reduce the core vote even more.
There are some Labour MPs who do understand the situation such as Cruddas and Field but Brown hates them.
6. “So the polling evidence suggests that the public considers that cuts are (a) necessary, and (b) possible without reducing quality of service”.
The other element of the trinity, as antifrank points out astutely at [15], is ‘deliverable’. Reforming the state sector and industrial relations at large was necessary and theoretically possible in 1970, and Heath had the plans to do it but they proved undeliverable once he lost the public’s backing (though it has to be said he didn’t do his own cause many favours).
The fact is that 10% cuts will hurt and will be felt, whether it be in redundancies, pay restraint, reductions in pointless capital expenditure (a school near me has just been rebuilt *for the second time* since 1997), or whatever, some people will feel that reduction in income or employment. Others will gain but that might only be nominal, especially if the ‘gain’ is against where they would have been had the cuts not been implemented, not where they were before the programme began.
11. “Brown’s arsenal is pretty bare: he can’t bring in any more spending or brave new initiatives, he can’t do a big pre-election giveaway”.
You are mixing up “can’t” and “would be playing a bloody dangrous game to”.
Having looked at the approach those who govern us to spending public money on themselves there is even more scepticism about their ability to use our taxes efficiently.
I think this is the key point for whether it be MPs expenses, Fred the Shred’s pension or Mark Thompson’s extortionate £645k salary there is going to be a continuous drip drip of stories about the profligacy in Government and the Public Sector all the way up to the general election. At the same time we will continue to have stories such as this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2009/jun/26/colleges-building-collapse
It’s an open goal for the media (exacerbated by the powers that be dragging their heals on transparency) and they will just keep putting the ball in the back of the net.
Random rogue thoughts:
. . .having been absent from pb during a very interesting week, want to get following off my thin reedy chest pointy-headed liberal chest:
1. John Bercow - naturally he won, due to fact that my recounting on pb the five minutes we once spent in each others company (now don’t get excited, was in a Palace of Westminster hallway . . . but was nicely carpeted) that this swayed the critical votes that put him in the High Chair, much to the dundegeon of High Torydom (or what passes for it in these troubled times).
Think that Nadine, Iain, Guido & Co are making themselves look ridiculous baying for the Speaker’s blood after 5 minutes in the High Chair. Jaysus, give the poor sod half a hour at least! Seems to me that this hurts the Conservative Party, but maybe I’m wrong, cause it really doesn’t help Labour all that much methinks, assuming they are toast (only lightly burned if they’re very lucky) at next general election.
BUT over-the-top Tory baying (along with getting yer moat, etc, etc) might just help snatch defeat from victory. Either by triming next Tory majority just enough to give Labour a soft-enough landing, or even worse giving Lib Dems enough traction for a hung parliament leading to a minitory Conservative government as opposed to a majority.
Remember Stephen Harper! Who had it in the bag up in the the Great White North, then screwed it up purely through misplaced hubris. Though he’s still driving the Skidoo of State . . . but by late June the ice starts to thin a wee bit up there in Ottawa . . .
hmm I think given the previous thread, rather than deal with the specifics of the article I’ll content myself with saying that it’s a rather class-based, anti-Scottish, over the top conclusion.
38 Agreed - there is an enormous amount of self-fulling bureaucracy that is nothing more than a job creation exercise.
In one small public service I worked in, there was a team of 6 reducing the number of forms everyone had to fill in - they killed off 6 out of 1800 in a year.
In another there were 20+ creating/checking internal compliance procedures that were entirely devoted to Home Office box-ticking. These roles didn’t do anything other than mark other box-tickers homework.
I can’t believe that this was a isolated incident - if it was replicated across just England the savings would be massive without a single fireman, nurse, teacher, soldier, social worker or whatever being adversely affected.
Sure a lot of non-job clerical staff would need to find something more useful to do but hey since when was the tax-payer just an easy option teat?
I wonder what level of ‘possible’ saving would get a balanced vote, or in other words what the percieved level of inefficiency is in the UK public services. 40%?
Tories just sent this out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRpA-lYT9YQ
15, 36, 40 antifrank, bobajob, David H
In terms of the electoral message and its impact, it’s important not to be over-nuanced. Of course the average voter hasn’t the faintest idea how much money can really be saved, and in any case one man’s ‘essential service’ is another man’s ‘total waste of public money’.
I think it all reduces down to one, very simple and powerful, electoral message: ‘Labour = Waste, we can’t afford it.’
That’s a message which anyone can understand, even if they (quite reasonably) don’t feel qualified to judge the competing arguments about gilt yields and the PSBR.
Such simple messages are often conveyed through personal experience (Council tax bills etc), and anecdotes - and there will be plenty more of those.
At the moment at least, the anecdotes that are hitting home are more on the Conservative side of the argument (waste in MPs’ expenses, waste at the BBC, etc, etc), and less on Brown’s side (Tory cuts),
44 - as I worked in the Civil Service until recently there had been a empire building at Senior Managament level since 1997 with endless stats that could easily be trimmed down. Where there had been restructing more and more stats seemed to be required and that was detrimental to front line services as the non-job people always thought their job was top priority not the front line services. One of my colleague used to fire back, ‘your priority may not be my priority’.
48 restructing = restructuring
36 A lot of voters have/do work for companies that have gone through stringent cost cutting measures. They have seen waste (as well as jobs) go while productivity rises. Many in the public sector are also aware of waste around them. The 10% figure is very low in comparison with what most companies have achieved.
44, 48. That seems about right. I have worked in quite a few Public Sector Organisations in the last decade. In some cases, the process seems almost entirely circular - I send you a spreadsheet, you send me a graph, I write a report to you based on your graphs. Which you summarise and send back to me. There are hundreds of thousands of people working like this. 10% cuts in the Public Sector could, in many cases, actually enhance productivity.
Someone elswhere has described the creation in the Public Sector of what are not merely non-jobs, but anti-jobs - Jobs that are not merely useless in themselves, but (through insistence on policies and guidelines and whatnot) actively prevent useful work being done. I have seen this.
FPT but relevant.
Ed Balls said today they would
cutsave £100 Million from the education budget by cancelling a worthless contract with Capita.How many more of these are there?
CutsSavings can be made without negatively impacting services according to Balls…10 antifrank
Ladbrokes have taken note and have reduced the odds on Con retain Sleaford and N Hykeham to 1/10. PP still offer 1/5.
The position Brown is trying to hold on to is untenable.
Labour needs to fess up to the deficit and put forward a package of deficit reduction measures as put forward by “tim” on PB.com.
At the same time it needs to act the electorate.
“who do you trust to maintain services in the areas you care about.”
ie. WHich parties priorities do you trust.
This is why the Conservative policy to prioritise the wealthiest estates for tax cuts is a strategic error. It plays exactly on the worries the electorate have about the Tories favouring the comfortable.
22. Marcia
No, Newtyle is in the Angus Council area, not Perth & Kinross. Back when I lived there it was in the Tayside North Westminster constituency (Pete Wishart) and John Swinney’s North Tayside seat (note the switching of the words “North” and “Tayside” -> very confusing!)
Nowadays I note that it is in the new Angus seat (Mike Weir).
Confusingly, the neighbouring village of Coupar Angus (cf. Cupar, Fife) is NOT in Angus, but rather is just over the border in Perthshire!
Raging royalists will be delighted to hear that a third village in the area - Glamis, the home of the late Queen Mum - is also a raging SNP-hotspot
At the same time it needs to ask the electorate.
Well, it blows apart a rhetoric that never took hold anyway.
But what’s so ridiculous is that, once again, we see yet another reason why Labour will fail at the next election. It’s almost like they want to lose.
It’s also the economic circumstances. Most people (not everyone, but most people - certainly most people who vote) understand that, if you are struggling financially, you can’t necessarily afford to keep spending at the same rate. What Brown doesn’t realise is that they are capable of extrapolating that up to the government. That, combined with years of anecdotes about public sector waste (and as a once (and possibly future) public sector worker I could go on for hours about the shockingly lax cost controls I saw in several government departments) has gradually accumulated to blow away Labour’s “spending = good” line.
Rouge thoughts continued
2. Mark Sanford - have yet to see The Press Conference and don’t have a week to wade though previous pb coverage on the Palmetto State’s answer to Eliot Spitzer and David Vitter (and apparently every GOP elected official in the State of Nevada?)
My reaction is very mixed:
As a Democrat, I’m partly delighted, but also sorry to see such a sterling example of rightwing GOP pigheadedness discredited before his wacko ideology and message totally rots out the bottom of the Good Ship Elephant and leaves it rolling in its own bilgewater.
As a citizen, I’m appalled, but also hopeful that this blow to wingnut GOP hypocracy will aid the more moderate/less demented Republicans such as Crist, Huntsman, and (dare I say it?) the fellow who just won the New Jersey GOP gubernatorial nomination. Because if the Republican Party is going to hang around - and I’m sure it will - then for the good of the nation then they can’t all be Rush Limbaugh.
As a political hack, I’m contemptious of both Sanford and his top staff. Total clowns. Particularly the later, who are either clueless or incompetent, there is no middle ground. BUT can also feel a wee bit of their pain, how DO you deal with a boss who is melting down right before your eyes.
First thing to do of course is fire Sanford’s security detail. Any sworn law officer who would allow the Governor of his or her state to simply go walkabout - he dismissed the ones with him the fateful day he left SC to tango in BA and they allowed him to get away with it - is clearly NOT up to the job.
As a human being, I can sympathize with the Governor. Yes, he’s a hypocrite and a egomaniac. But to paraphrase a great American, We are all Hypocrites, We are all Egomaniacs. The emails between Sanford and his paramour (like Conan O’Brien said the other night, aren’t Republican’s supposed to have a problem appealing to Hispanic women?) do appear to show that his feelings were sincere.
And also undermedicated apparently, as this is NOT the only example of erratic behavior by MS. In fact, he’s been acting even squirrlier than ususal recently. Fact that plenty of GOPers appeared oblivious to this is instruction. But that’s not true in South Carolina, of course. Indeed, it’s clear that most sane members of SCGOP have considered Mark Sanford to be a congenital liar and dangerous loose cannon for many years.
However, he is increasing the jollification of the nation.
Though of course as I type this drivel, everything in the news from Tuscaloosa to Timbucktoo is being driven off by news of Michael Jackson’s passing.
40 -
>> You are mixing up “can’t” and “would be playing a bloody dangerous game to”.
You are of course correct. I did consider using another word there, but given the degree of opposition he’s already getting to ‘Tory Cuts’ within his own cabinet (not to mention what the press is saying, the public view about cuts, and how they would savage him if he pulled yet more borrowed money out of the hat for purely self-serving purposes) there is a limit as to what he can realistically do.
Of course I could be wrong….
tim, I think Brown has left the public in little doubt that he is a liar. If I am right they will not trust him on anything. He has blown it.
More incompetence or is this something more sinister from the Government (yet again)?
Warning over Commons reform plans
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8121539.stm
62 Don’t worry, jsfl. When some of us raised some concerns about this bill Nick P assured everyone that it was an over-reaction.
55 - you are correct, getting senile, just in Angus but neighbouring village Meigle is in Perthshire. I see from Angus Council’s election results that Newtyle is in the Kirriemuir and Dean seat.
62, so, ID cards, trials without juries, databases for communications for holidays, an electoral register going walkies after a very unexpected Labour hold… any other interesting developments beside this?
The Government is rotten.
61 - If Labour can come up with a cunning vote winning strategy on the lines of “Elect the Liar, not the Toff” then they might be on to something. Short of that, or a black swan event (in US parlance an ‘October Surprise’) it looks very much as if they are toast.
Simon Carr in his Sketch on yesterday’s Gordon Brown speech
Quote:
“He did actually say that. “Next month we shall be cleaning up politics and taking people safely through the recession.”
What will he be doing in August?
The Gordon Brown/Ed Balls cuts approach is just as transparently dishonest as “cleaning up politics” in a month. Cameron’s jibe that he kept talking about this and last year never the future hits home and points to his problem - he hasn’t a clue about what message to offer in straightened circumstances. He briefs against the BoE when they point to the stark facts of the situation. Balls claims that economic growth will make the PBR figures obsolete and allow spending increases, the OECD and BoE say not.
So today he pledges UK will pay its fair share to a £60bn fund - what with?
The truly massive cut which dare not speak its name is of course to make public sector provisions compatible with those in the private sector, ie based, for the future, on money purchase, rather than final salary.
Private sector pension schemes have been ravaged by the provisions introduced in Brown’s first budget, since when such schemes have been hit to the extent of well over £100,000,000,000, yes that’s a hundred billion pounds, whilst public sector pensions have remained largely unscathed.
Sorry guys, this can’t and won’t be allowed to continue under the Tories continue. Doubtless the unions will kick up nasty, but without such action there will be a revolution.
40. “11. “Brown’s arsenal is pretty bare: he can’t bring in any more spending or brave new initiatives, he can’t do a big pre-election giveaway”.
You are mixing up “can’t” and “would be playing a bloody dangrous game to”.”
There’s no mixing up “can’t” where Gordon Brown is concerned.
33. Marcia - “the Independent candidate in 2007 was the Tory candidate yesterday”
Wow! That makes the Tory performance yesterday even weaker than it looks at first glance.
The combined Con + Ind vote in May 2007 was 1,969 votes. However, yesterday that same Ind candidate, now a “Scottish Conservative and Unionist” candidate, received just 698 votes.
The Met Office is forecasting a 32 degree heat wave next week.
Over here 32 degrees is what we call freezing
On Irans elections and the Far Right/Left nutters who support Ahmadinejad in this country.
Here’s another of “Respects” leading lights, who also works for Iranian TV
At this point I should declare my own personal interest which stems from the fact that I present a political current affairs show called The Agenda for the Iranian-broadcaster Press TV which is owned by state-run television IRIB.
My other interest stems from the fact I’m quite a fan of Mahmoud Admadinejad who is adored by the common man and woman in Iran. Anyone who vows to narrow the gap between rich and poor can’t be all that bad… unless you’re one of the rich!
http://mobile.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/63688
Some great material for the stattos amongst us too
I have stood as a candidate in elections in Britain before, and if everyone who pledged me a vote did exactly that when it came to putting a cross on the ballot paper I would be sitting in the House of Commons by now. The fact is that voters do weird things when left to their own devices in a polling station, away from the glare of political pressure groups.
In 1992 the media polls told Labour Leader Neil Kinnock he was going to win the 1992 General Election from the Tories - he didn’t. Ever since that shock result politicians have lost confidence in voters … they simply can’t be trusted to do the ‘right’ thing. They’re unpredictable which is why the Conservatives are taking nothing for granted this time around.
On a point of interest the ‘92 election was very close. Neil Kinnock lost by 1400 out of 25 million votes - it came to represent 21 seats, a bitter pill for anyone.
68 Natural demographics have through much of the 20th century been distorted by war. We’re entering a much more realistic phase and the governments of the world are simply choosing to blindfold themselves. I think the last analysis I saw indicated that the Germans were the most self-denying in this respect but we’re well up there.
Whatever your politics I think it is time to become financially responsible as you suggest.
51, there are also too many tiers in the civil service - Admin Assistant, Admin Officer, Executive Officer, Higher Executive Officer, Senior Executive Officer, then grades 7 through to 1. That’s 12 layers of administration for, what, half a million people? If each person managed just five direct subordinates, that’s enough ranks for 300 million people.
A personal example, when I was in the DWP, our grade 7 had a single SEO, who managed 4 HEOs, each of whom managed a single EO who in turn managed a single AO - 14 people with five different grades, nine of whom had a lot of their time taken up the line management procedures.
There’s certainly room for the civil service to get much more efficient, though possibly not in small increments. The choice might be between doing nothing effective, and redesigning the system from scratch.
OT I completely missed this MP expenses story.
Hilarious!
http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/campaign/2009/06/claim-your-free-horoscope-from-david-tredinnick-mp.html
71, ugh. I hate the hot weather. Give me a still, cold day anytime.
Gordon Brown: will he last another year?
Gordon Brown today celebrates two years in office, but his inner circle is working on his exit strategy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/5652216/Gordon-Brown-will-he-last-another-year.html
75 - Of course, now that Pluto has been downgraded as a planet, he will need to update his skills in this area.
Can we expect to pay for this too?
77 - this is of course a trick question.
He can’t last another year because he has to hold an election within that time
65 Well over turning the Bill of Rights (and Claim of Right in Scotland) seems to be Labour’s objective. They have already attacked rights to trial by Jury and to freedom from imprisonment or punishment without trial. Why not get rid of Parliamentary privilege as well.
Then they claim we need a written constitution while ignoring or over-riding the written Acts we do have, ably supported by the unthinking lobber fodder that we saw turn out to vote on the Iraq Inquiry, un-bothered by fact they hadn’t contributed, listened to the debate, just following Nick Brown’s instructions.
77… cont.
Much will depend on Lord Mandelson, the Prime Minister’s all-powerful life-support system, whose influence now extends to dictating Mr Brown’s bedtime: he is the one who calls time on the Downing Street day and chivvies his boss upstairs to rest.
81 Scott P
I thought (seriously) Gordon Brown appointed some no-name MP as a personal nanny?
70 - though it was a local by-election, National issues were heard on the doorstep. The expenses saga I think did depress the Tory vote. The issue had died down after the European elections but once the redacted expenses were released that brought a lot of anger and it all started up again. A few Tories did say they were not voting in protest to the expenses scandal.
Surprised Clegg did not get pulled up for these expenses!
13/12/05 “Food £1657.32 (max £400/Month)” as on the expense form!
http://mpsallowances.parliament.uk/mpslordsandoffices/hocallowances/allowances-by-mp/nick-clegg/Nick_Clegg_0506_ACA.pdf
I have seen some LDs on here try to say Cameron has a problem but looking at Clegg he seems to have been maximising food in one period when he could get away with it! then when Kennedy was despatched - magically it stopped!
Maybe this is why Skeleton was never anything than interim leader!
75 - Oh god.
Just what the world needs an old Etonian Tory MP trainning in Astrology.
I’d even forgotten this twit was still in the house after he took a bribe in the cash for questions affair.
81 So Mandy now has Jowell’s job as well
86, is he now responsible for the Duchy of Bedfordshire?
77 Scott P
Very interesting article, with convincing-sounding detail. It seems, however, more or less to rule out Brown going in 2009. Instead, it pushes the stjohn scenario of an early 2010 departure.
81 - I wonder if he tucks him in and reads him a bedtime story…
73 The Economist did a feature on this a while ago. IIRC even the US had a real deficit of 200+% of GDP. Italy was more like 350% and we were about 150. I dread to think what they will be now.
Expect to retire a few years before you drop dead if you are lucky - originally the pension was a reward for extreme longevity and the likelihood is we are going back to that.
89 So long as it’s not Lord of the Rings!
Cue thread diversion…
88 - it raises the ultimate Brown departure question though - will it be a bigger blow to his pride to weasel out before the election, and possibly get blamed anyway when Labour get hammered, or go down fighting to the last man at an election, after giving his all, so he can look himself in the mirror and know he gave it his best shot?
This of course presumes that he is not forced out by person or persons all too well known.
77. OMG! Get rid of Brown and replace him with Balls? That would happen over Mandy dead body.
I thin Timbot has been replaced by Timbot mark 2.
75 - Plato.
there’s more.
A WOMAN who ran a course at the centre of an MP’s expenses scandal has been revealed as a Gloucestershire county councillor.
David Tredinnick, Conservative MP for Bosworth, was exposed by the Daily Telegraph for trying to claim £125 on office expenses for a course on ‘intimate relation- ships’.
Now the Echo can reveal that the woman who runs the course, Fiona McKenzie, was elected as the new Tory councillor for Northleach this month.
A leaflet for the course said: “Most of us long for more intimate relationships.
“Learn about polarity, neutrality, the essential nature of honouring the female and also the male essence and the importance of celebrating each.”
http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/gloucestershireheadlines/Councillor-taught-MP-intimate-relationships/article-1105870-detail/article.html
It would have to be the illustrated edition, so Mandy could point out Frodo and Bilbo and ask if they look like the Millibands.
Or maybe when he gets Gordo upstairs, he’s teaching him to dance, probably the Gay Gordon, which is a highland reel anyway…
72. Ummmm….Kinnock lost by some 2.5 million votes!
64. Marcia - “neighbouring village Meigle is in Perthshire”
If you are ever in Meigle, stop and visit their excellent little museum of carved Pictish stones. Truly amazing monuments left by our “Dark Age” ancestors. One suspects that Pictish culture was far more enlightened and advanced than is generally understood.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pictish_stones
http://www.undiscoveredscotland.co.uk/meigle/meiglestones/
http://www.rampantscotland.com/visit/blvisitmeigle.htm
72- “Anyone who vows to narrow the gap between rich and poor can’t be all that bad… unless you’re one of the rich!”
By that gentleman’s logic, he must also be “quite a fan” of Mussolini, since who wouldn’t support making the trains run on time?
Wasn’t until I saw BBC coverage that I realized just how big a story the death of Michael Jackson was, not just in the US, but worldwide.
I’m just a little too old to have experienced the full impact of MJ. But he’s definitely part of my personal sound track. And I saw enough of his affect on those slightly younger than myself to understand that Michael Jackson was a true mass cultural superstar in the 1970s and 80s. And that’s something that never goes away, as long as the people he touched are still around.
Seems to me that there are very clear similarities between him and Elvis.
For one thing, methinks they both went off the deep end as much because of America as themselves. Too simply put, the celebrity that raised them up wacked them out.
For another thing, they both represented a trend that has reached its apogee if not it’s fruition with the election of Barack Obama: integration, reconciliation, imagination and mutual identification between Black America, White America and America America.
Interesting, Jackson’s own personal history shows both the main and back currents of the river of time.
MJ first came to national attention in the mid 1960s as the incredibly cute Black kid from Gary (a notoriously tough town) with the big Afro and big voice. (Dare we think of what word is now springing to the Mind of Mayor Johnson?) He was perfect for a mass audience during this rowdy decade: safe cool.
During the 1970s America kept changing, and so did Michael Jackson. He went from the pick of the Jackon 5 litter to a megastar in his own right. In the process of growing up, he also began his path to personal whiteness. Starting with ditching the afro and modeling himself as a Black, edgy (and thin) version of Elvis meets Brando meets Astaire.
At this point he was Black enough for the Black and White, and White enough to reasure the later. This talent and showmanship made him HIGHLY attractive during this period to mainstream American youth White and Black but especially White. He was cool enough for the kids and safe enough for the parents - and they though he was cool too.
Also turned out that Michael Jackson was not just a US deal. He proved to be a true global superstar. Indeed, reckon that he likley more popular abroad than at home.
And for all the craziness of the past few decades, including talking the whole “White Like Me” thing WAY too far, America is still home for Michael Jackson. For no other nation could have produced him. And despite his whiter shade of pale, Black America has always loved him as their own and always will. Just look at the pictures from his old neighborhood in Gary when they heard the news. Like George Best in Belfast.
Lots of late breaking news on Michael Jackson - toxicology for starters - that we’ve yet to hear and that he will never know (unless of course they’ve got cable in the afterlife).
Yet think we can say that MJ checked out on a high note. On the verge of yet another world tour. The fact that it was not to be is just part of the legend now. Also removes possibility of just more fuss and mess. Now he’s beyond that. And his fans of whatever country, color, condition or degree can remember there own Michael Jackson and hear their own soundtrack. And know they are united in that with a billion other souls.
97 - Sunil, I think he means the amount of votes that need to tip some Tory marginal seats to Labour.
97. I wonder if Kinnick charged £400 a month for food?
See 84!
No wonder Clegg was putting weight on!
Any polls this weekend.Looking back tothe end May there was an ICM Sunday telegraph poll-the one that put Lib Dems on 25% and abovev Labour.
72- By the way, what is Respect’s angle? They seem pretty indiscriminate about the thugs they’ll support.
101 et al - Thats not a bloke its Yvonne “Stockholm Syndrome” Ridley the Daily Express journalist who was kidnapped by the Taliban, converted to Islam and now supports Ahmadinejad.
104 Asked on a previous thread - are there any seats that Respect have a gnat’s chance of coming close to winning except of course Mr Galloway’s
101. Marcia: The quote was thusly:
Neil Kinnock lost by 1400 out of 25 million votes - it came to represent 21 seats, a bitter pill for anyone.
100- MJ’s effect on the youth of the 80’s isn’t so hard to relate to. After all, you know how it was when you were young and Enrico Caruso was sweeping the land!
83. Marcia - “The expenses saga I think did depress the Tory vote.”
That is very apparent if you peruse the Scottish sub-samples: up until the Telegraph expenses saga started the Scottish Tories were regularly polling in the 20%-25% range. After the Telegraph stories started, they sunk back to between 15%-20%.
The question is: how long will this suppression of their support last?
104 - There a dwindling band but both Galloway and Ridley work for Iranian State TV and have been pumping out the Governments position.
106 - There branch network is basically defunct outside of Birmingham Hall Green, Bethnal Green and Bow, and Poplar and Limehouse.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1992
Conservative 336 41.9% 14,093,007
Labour 271 34.4% 11,560,484
107 - that is what I took him to really mean ,but you also have to factor in all other opposition parties so it would be more than 1400 votes? It would be ironic of you polled only 34.4% and I think there would have shouts to change the electoral system if that happened as the Tories polled just under 42%.
108 I loved Mario Lanza’s B movies on BB2 when Grandstand was on - never took to Deena Durbin though.
Even if 1400 extra Labour votes in selected constituencies might have denied the Conservatives a majority you would still have needed significantly more to have given Labour a majority.
100 Just after the Romanian Revolution as Western TV became available, specifically satellite and MTV a Romanian was asked what he liked about the new freedom “well I like the music, especially that Gypsy singer Michael Jackson”.
that stuck in my mind because with his bleached skin, clothing and hairstyle it was indeed what MJ brought to mind.
Decline of Once Great Britain
Surely the surest sure sign of the degregation of Perfidious Albion, is the fact that its we humble colonials who are treating the world to the likes of Mark Sanford, Eliot Spitzer, John Ensign, David Vitter, Larry Craig, every elected official from the State of Nevada with the exception of Harry Reid . . . who plans to enjoy the weekend hiking on the Appalachian Trial . . . or whatever the kids are calling it these days.
And that’s just the last couple news cycles.
Wheras the best that Britain can do is . . . Jackie Smith’s husband’s pornos????
No wonder a once great power is reduced to yammering about Brussels spouts! Which are obviously even less aphrodisical than thoughts of fat bottoms on green leather . . .
Lord Harris sticks the Jacko boot in
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/06/lord-toby-harris-is-first-uk-politician-to-attack-jacko.html
112/114. I just think it either totally shoddy journalism or deliberate misinformation!
109. SD
“The question is: how long will this suppression of their support last?”
Proportionally that’s a big drop in the Scottish Conservative vote.
Fortunately for the Conservatives as a whole Scotland is the least important area for them.
It’s also interesting that the Conservatives still did well at the Euros in the parts of Scotland they have targets in. If some of their support in non-target areas goes to the SNP instead then that could be bad news for Labour as well.
110 Thanks for the info
Another triumph for Ms Cooper
Half of home sales are going through without a HIP…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1195764/Half-home-sales-going-HIPs.html?ITO=1490
108 - he died in 1921, you must be older than Jack W.
Caruso was a favourite of my late father.
109 - a general distrust of all political parties could be found on the doorsteps. I wonder if the 2nd job’s are declared next week that will make things worse. This will rumble into the two by-elections coming up.
116. SSI
Don’t forget those pictures of Gordon which have been mentioned on Guido’s site
108 - “you know how it was when you were young and Enrico Caruso was sweeping the land!”
I don’t . . . but Jack W does!
FPT - Sunil Prasannan - “I was talking to some colleagues at lunch today and one of them reckoned that Tiree was the sunniest place in the UK! Is that true?”
Despite Malcolm G’s disbelief, yes, it is true!
- There are no peat bogs and rainfall is low, Tiree being both the sunniest place in Britain and the windiest, its constant wind making it a venue for the International Windsurfing Championships.
http://www.geo.ed.ac.uk/scotgaz/features/featurefirst1538.html
http://www.scotland.org.uk/guide/Tiree
http://calendar.visitscotland.com/may/scottish-weather/sunniest-place-in-great-britain.aspx
http://www.travelblog.org/Europe/United-Kingdom/Scotland/Isle-of-Tiree/blog-43640.html
90 The US has made at least some provision in the form of a dedicated (although rapidly diminishing fund). It struck me the other day when looking over the oecd report that Norway is busy saving for the future with its windfall oil revenue. Now I realise we’re a much bigger and more complex economy than Norway but surely we should have been making at least some provision along those lines.
117 - I think in these situations to be fair to all major politicians you can’t win. Don’t say anything, or say anything really negative, and you will get strung up as a heartless bar steward, go OTT and gushing, and people will accuse you are trying to cash in on their popularity etc.
re: Michael Jackson, forgot to metion the one word (and it does NOT start with “T”) that will always conjure up his name:
Moonwalk
117- He refers to the “near conviction” for child molestation, as did Socrates yesterday. But, folks, close only counts in horseshoes, not in criminal law. You’re either found guilty or not guilty.
And, for those who really think everyone is innocent as the wind-driven snow until they’ve been found guilty in a court of law (myself not included in that group), there’s no cause to level any of those accusations against MJ today.
122 - great minds have similar thoughts . . . every once and awhile . . .
127 Agreed - better taste to at least wait until he was in the ground though.
119. another richard
- “Fortunately for the Conservatives as a whole Scotland is the least important area for them.”
But if Dave doesn’t want to be the final PM of the Yookay, then he had better have a really cracking GE north of the border.
- “It’s also interesting that the Conservatives still did well at the Euros in the parts of Scotland they have targets in.”
Err… with one exception: the SNP/Con marginals.
- “If some of their support in non-target areas goes to the SNP instead then that could be bad news for Labour as well.”
Indeed!
122/124 The marcia/SSI double act !!
Jack W is 106.
129 Heard a very moving interview with Mark Lester [Oliver!] about MJ’s views on kids.
MJ is his son’s godfather and vica versa - when asked if he ever had concerns over MJ’s relationships with young children, he said - he is the godfather to my son, that says everything I need to.
Hey, S&S, seeing as how part of the Appalachian Trail crosses New Jersey (much more than is in West Virginia, which never made any sense to me) - my question is have YOU ever gone “hiking” on the AT?
Perhaps even (dare I say?) with former Gov. Christie Todd Whitman? OR her successor the Hon.(?) Jim McGreevey?
Enquiring minds want to know!
122- Just call me Monty Burns (my identity finally revealed)!
129. Utter utter rubbish. In the eyes of the State, you are innocent until proven guilty, because the state has the power to confiscate liberty and property.
There is absolutely no need for the average person to require such a burden of proof.
Society is littered with people who have committed offences and got away with it. As a society we believe it is better that such people go free, then risk the possibility of innocent people being convicted.
132 - it is difficult to make comprisons with seats as they were counted by local authority area this time rather than Westminster seats in 2004 (on old boudaries). If we take Perth that always votes Tory more than SNP at EU elections, the council area voted SNP this time. A good chunk of the SNP support in North Tayside is in Angus (Forfar, Brechin Kirriemuir ) So if I was asked I think we have the SNP up a bit in Perth & NP and Angus compared with 2004 and 2005. Still a year to go to the GE and anything can happen.
New leadership plot?
http://tinyurl.com/lhodde
135- You know, SSI, that’s a wonderful idea! For some reason, although I’m always looking for intriguing weekend excursions in the area, I hadn’t thought of that one. I will definitely add it to my itinerary for this summer. On that note, one of the most interesting nature-oriented things to do in the NYC area is to venture a bit west and kayak the Delaware River or do some whitewater rafting in Pennsylvania. I did both last year and had a lot of fun.
jsfl’s link at 24 shows the limitations of the thread’s thesis - the secondary questions are just following the primary preference, with added cynicism - people think that waste could produce lots of savings, they think both parties would be rubbish at doing the job, but they think the Tories would be 10% less rubbish.
Had a Radio Nottingham phone-in this morning - dominated by Michael Jackson, plus the local tram and someone phoning about Scottish devolution. No calls about expenses, though last week they were apparently the dominant issue.
PB Donations
Thanks to Mike S & Co for investing in server upgrade.
My suggestion for PB donation rewards, would be choice of ONE of the following:
1. Betting Tips email (as Mike suggests); OR
2. Gold star by your name; OR
3. Membership in the PB Sanctum Sanctorum, with voting privleges over website design (for example, all polka dot all the time!); OR
4. PB Punters Insurance Scheme, guaranteeing charter donors lifetime “grace and favor” accomodation (Cotswolds, Lake District, Hackney Wick) with full board, travel allowance, entertainment stipend, hot and cold au pair service, etc, etc.
Guess which is MY personal favorite!
132. SD
“But if Dave doesn’t want to be the final PM of the Yookay, then he had better have a really cracking GE north of the border.”
As a English Conservative and an Englishman that possibility doesn’t worry me
“Err… with one exception: the SNP/Con marginals.”
The Conservatives will have a good chance in Angus and Perth (plus Stirling, Argyll, Ochill etc) when the SNP government becomes unpopular or when Scotland becomes independent.
139 - well that got you another hit!
144.
Suggestion for next thread perhaps?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3720458/camerons-sentence.thtml
“Peggy Noonan, who used to write speeches for Ronald Reagan, has a thought-provoking anecdote in her column today:
“Clare Boothe Luce told about a conversation she had in 1962 in the White House with her old friend John F. Kennedy. She told him, she said, that “a great man is one sentence.” His leadership can be so well summed up in a single sentence that you don’t have to hear his name to know who’s being talked about. “He preserved the union and freed the slaves,” or, “He lifted us out of a great depression and helped to win a World War.” You didn’t have to be told “Lincoln” or “FDR.”
She wondered what Kennedy’s sentence would be. She was telling him to concentrate, to know the great themes and demands of his time and focus on them.”
Transformative leader know where they are trying to take the country, what their mission is. One of the conversations you hear most frequently on the right is whether Cameron has what it takes to be that kind of leader. Sometime there are signs he does. Other times, he appears to be too cautious, too tactical to be a truly consequential Prime Minister.
But it struck me as worth contemplating what sentence Cameron should be aiming for. My opening offer would be, ‘He gave power back to the people.’ I think this is the most exciting aspect of the Cameron agenda. If he follows through on it, it could change the country for better, for good. But I’d welcome your suggestions, there’ll be the usual bottle of champagne for the best one.”
116 I wouldn’t be so sure. We have a trougher and flipper as Speaker; we have MPs claiming for moats, duckhouses, helipads, non-existent mortgages, porn, wigs, and non-existent second homes.
I grant you that we have no one in the same league as Berlusconi or Edwin Edwards, but we can match most American porkers.
She wondered what Kennedy’s sentence would be.
He got a headache if he didn’t have sex at least twice a day.
142- The star suggestion is a very good one. I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts that it would encourage/coax/shame A LOT of non-donors to become donors. A good threshold for entitlement to a star could be somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 to 100 pounds.
143 - I have have been a bit surprised at the SNP vote rise in Stirling in the past election, when the new seat of Stirling was created in 1983 we polled only 8% of the vote. in 2007 on the same boundaries polled 32% in a three horse race.
146 - At the moment its.
“David Cameron.He looks after his mates.”
140 - You sound very enthusastic at hitting your local segement of the Appalachian trail with your trusty hiking staff!
Seriously, NJ does have lots of beautiful land and water. And like elsewhere on the continent and planet, now that we’re abusing it less (a bit) it’s doing even better.
Speaking of Gov. McGreevey, here’s a great title for SeanT’s next opus:
“Six Moons Over Drumthwacket (or “What the Governor’s Butler Saw”)
151.
Is that why Gordon Brown just looks out for No.1? Because Gordon has no mates? Billy ‘no mates’ Brown! 
Breaking: Lord Rennard reported to the Privileges Committee.
http://www.liberal-vision.org/2009/06/26/lord-rennard-reported-to-the-privileges-committee/
Cameron - he looked like a Jersey new potato?
152- The trick in New Jersey/New York, though, is to find nature activities that aren’t swamped with people, ruining the whole experience. I never had this problem back in good old Wisconsin, where nature is always just out your back door, but you really have to know where to go around here to get away from the masses.
155
‘Nature Activities’ in a big city are liable to get you arrested.
On thread, I’m sure Mike is right that the waste exposed by the expenses scandal partly explains these striking findings.
But that’s fine - the job needs to be done and if the expenses scandal makes it easier, so be it.
158 On thread, a better tactic for Labour would surely be to say that cuts are necessary, but we’ll do more to protect essential services than the Conservatives would.
146 Cameron clearly believes that he has someting to offer. His belief is that he has a positive agenda. For what it’s worth I buy into that.
Re: South Carolin’s Love Gov. Mark Sanford, comics this side of Fort Sumter have been having a field day naturally. Though Jocko’s passing has knocked this story off the headlines AND tabloids, at least until he does something to refuel it next week. Which I’m guessing is about 99.46% certain he will.
BUT this is still the funniest thing I’ve seen, though unintentionally so:
http://www.postandcourier.com/news/2009/jun/24/much_ado_about_nothing87000/
138. marcia - “Still a year to go to the GE and anything can happen.”
Indeed.
We need to work as hard as we have ever done to identify and motivate our supporters to actually get out to those polling stations to give the Labour Party the leathering it so richly, richly deserves.
The thumping of the Lib Dems would just be a wee cherry on the cake. (Oooh, I do hope that Easterross is right about the Michael Brown court-case in the United States. Tee hee.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Robert_Alexander_Brown
156 - pretty certain old Montie isn’t talking about “cottaging” and the like . . .
Though he might send poor Smithers out to do research . . .
158. Sean Fear
Isn’t that the tim policy?
The problem with political spin is that its subject to the law of diminishing returns:
Everything is going great
Everything is not so great but I’m about to save you
Everything is not great buts its the fault of the USA
Everything is not great but will be soon if we keep spending
Cuts aren’t necessary and Tory Cuts will make things worse
Our cuts will be less painful than the Tory Cuts
At each stage more support is lost.
And Brown is unable to be honest because that would mean admitting to mistakes and that is something he is unable to do.
So Brown will keep on lying and spining and he’s a bad liar and the spin no longer works.
162
That’s what underlings are for!
Talk about the audacity of hope:
Mark Sanford for President 2012
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=7511542695
Check out discussion board!
113- Speaking of Mario Lanza, he was so gracious as to pass up the chance to record “Here in My Heart” after his friend Al Martino told him he had his heart set on the song. Martino’s subsequent recording went on to become the first ever number one hit on the UK Singles Chart.
164 - SSI, I liked the comment ‘This man knows all about international affairs!’
Given the topic is about public sector spending I’ve just found this.
From Politicshome - it’s going to get hot, damn hot next week according to the Met (but only for a couple of days):
http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/News/Recentstories/DH_101575
Check out the plan. Interesting to see our Tax pounds at work. Interestingly, each year the plan grows (you can follow the audit trail of previous plans within the site), however from what I can see the basis of the plan is still the same and the critical information can still be fitted on one page (see pg 17 of the 2009 plan). Is this bureaucracy creep perhaps?
And yet another:
http://draftsanford2012.com/
Note that link labeled “10 Things You Didn’t Know About Mark Sanford” is a LOT less informative/intersting than it could have been.
Though you do learn that Gov & Mrs Sanford meet in the Hamptons. And that he loves to barbecue - something they can relate to down on the pampas!
Also #7 “While in the House, he didn’t accept his allowance for housing; he slept in his office instead.”
Was that the one about a mile from the White House . . . or the Pink House?
165 I didn’t know that - he rises another notch on my great bloke league.
158. The problem with that, Sean, is it appeals to the voter on the basis of relative competence….and almost no-one believes Labour are competent any more (isn’t it remarkable that so many once did?)
Hilary Benn admits there will have to be cuts, more or less towards equivocation, on Any Questions!
Sorry, “towards” should read “without”
171 - There goes another Nokia!
Timbot 2 has morphed back to Timbot 1..//// Change of shift?
Hilary Benn’s intervention is a complete game-changer… it seemed premeditated to me rather than a Lansley style gaffe.
Could Labour finally have developed a clue?
Re 175
Or is this Benn going rogue, making a Jim Hacker style “it’s in the programme” style intervention, forcing Gordon Brown’s hand?
125. Wot Bollocks. Sorry Stuart, but your patriotism sometimes outruns reality.
The Hebrides have some interesting and surprising microclimates, thanks to the Gulf Stream, but the idea they could be the “sunniest place in the UK” - e.g. Tiree - is surely nonsense.
A spot of Googling shows that the prime contenders for “sunniest British locale” are the Channel Islands or the South Coast of England, with Eastbourne in Sussex maybe taking the crown.
UNsurprising, really.
If it’s any consolation I’d far rather have a holiday in Tiree than bloody Eastbourne.
141. NPMP - “… someone phoning about Scottish devolution.”
Paeons of praise for Blairs wunderkind no doubt?
177 - He’s confusing daylight hours with sunshine.
173/4 - It’s swimming through plankton when you two post in tandem.
nokia, bot, bunker pravda.
We devote more time to attributing ‘tim’ than the Sovietologists used to spend pouring over leaders’ speaches.
141
Nick, of course you miss the essential point, Cuts are necessary, in fact imperative yet Gordon goes on saying we will spend more whilst denying the truth. Its a recipe for disaster. Even Mervyn King wont stay silent any more. He is NOT going to carry the can for the Prime Minister. I do wonder what you really think in your heart of hears about having Gordon Brown as your leader. I hardly think its going to assist you in retaining your seat.
“nokia, bot, bunker pravda”
‘tim’, stop doing our job for us!
177 Eastbourne is indeed billed as the Sunshine Coast and has been the sunniest place in the UK
http://www.eastbourne.gov.uk/environment/weather/sunshine/
As someone who has Eastbourne as their major town, I can recommend its range of hearing aid and mobility shops.
We also do very nice civic floral displays, the biggest Armed Services recruitment drive, virtually no graffiti and excellent Chinese restaurants.
Astronomically OT
In all the New Romantics 80’s revival hoopla I clearly missed the fact that The Specials are back!!
Live at Glastonbury on BBC 4 now
183 - And an MP who was arrested for assaulting his children.
184
Saw them recently. The body language was even funnier than Pink Floyd at the live aid/earth thing at Wembley.
183 I notice that you don’t mention it’s MP murdered by the IRA.
http://www.newsplayer.com/conservative-mp-ian-gow-murdered-by-ira-video
You were just redeeming yourself in my eyes = BIG MISTAKE
My big problem with Gordo’s strategy is that he is beginning to sound like one of those Mili or SWP paper sellers we used to have in the 80’s, shouting “Fight the Tory cuts” etc etc on street corners and at demos.
As you know the 80’s was a time of considerable electoral success for Labour….or not.
186 - Ha Ha.
I saw them in Manchester, not a lot of benter between certain members of the band.
I knew Terry Halls mum in the 80s.
No, Mike not a surprising split of opinion! Pity they didn’t ask the obvious follow up - what % of people think the Tories could deliver that - I would be fairly certain you would get a fairly large split saying they couldn’t. Frankly it just shows how unrealistic (sorry, suspicious of other people’s motives / performance) British people are!! So, no, it indicates nothing more than we already know about GB’s position electorally. People have been very suspicious of politicians since the dawn of time, and now, they are even more suspicious.
As part of BBC Scotland’s coverage of the 10th anniversary of the Scottish Parliament our political editor Brian Taylor spoke to Tony Blair about his views on the success of devolution.
You can hear more from Tony Blair and others on Holyrood and the search for Scotland’s soul on BBC One Scotland at 2220 BST on Sunday night.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/scotland_video_and_audio/8121384.stm
187 - I was referring to the MP who is up for re-election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1576920/Tory-MP-arrested-for-assaulting-his-children.html
@ 38, 44: didn’t somebody once work out that, if you put 64 people in a building to no obvious purpose, they will nonetheless contrive eventually to keep each other busy?
And that’s significant swathes of yer public sector, that is. I suspect.
“I notice that you don’t mention its MP murdered by the IRA.”
Tsk, tsk, Tory MPs murdered by Irish terrorists don’t count; to admit otherwise would weaken Labour’s NeoConservative ‘Tories are soft on terror’ lie.
PS: Christian Bale was recently arrested for assaulting his own mother. Do you refuse to watch his movies or something, ‘tim’?
The Brown government turns two years old tomorrow! I heard that government workers will have the day off tomorrow in order to celebrate.
194 - I don’t think I’d vote for Christian Bale or Nigel Waterson.
195. I think they are having something called the big lunch - Which is an utter joke!
“Bore for Britain, Dave. It’s your national duty”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6586322.ece
192 And you will also know that his arrest was unfounded as he was not charged and the Press Complaints Commission confirmed this:
http://www.pcc.org.uk/advanced_search.html?page=2&num=10&keywords=assault&publication=x&decision=0
*tim = urgh*
192
tim dear, being arrested in New Labour’s Britain is almost meaningless. Was the man charged? Convicted? Is he still on Bail?
Damien Green was arrested. Every day people are arrested for no reason as the police are incentivised to arrest.
192 Timbotrevoltingsmearmerchant, of course you only posted whay YOU wanted to, of course a little research shows the follwing
http://www.pcc.org.uk/case/resolved.html?article=NTAzMQ==
199 snap
Do you think anybody ever convicted, arrested or cautioned, for any offence, ought to be automatically disqualified from running for office?
I have to say that’s a very NuLab way of thinking.
Like barring people from employment because the CRB check reveals they stole a ha’ppeny chew 30 years ago.
Last time I saw The Specials was in 1981 at Potternewton Park in Leeds.
I think our city centres were alight that year…
Schools freed from Whitehall’s grip in massive Labour U-turn
By Laura Clark
Schools are to be freed from central government control over teaching in a stunning U-turn on 12 years of New Labour policy.
Children’s Secretary Ed Balls will next week unveil plans to dismantle the National Strategies for education which give Whitehall oversight of literacy and numeracy teaching as well as school behaviour policies.
The move will end central prescription of the literacy and numeracy hours in primary schools and free up £100million a year spent on the private consultants paid to deliver the strategies, which also govern much of the curriculum in secondaries.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1195650/Schools-freed-Whitehalls-grip-massive-Labour-U-turn.html
The literacy strategy was marked by the insistence on a daily “literacy hour” - which became a near-universal feature of primary school mornings from then on.
There never was a numeracy hour as such - it was “the daily maths lesson” - but inevitably the phrases became bracketed together in staffroom parlance.
They did for pupils, too.
I forget which raconteur tells the tale, but he was in a primary school to see how it was implementing the new strategies and one little boy, obviously confused by the jargon, told him they were doing “lunacy”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8120855.stm
Dropping primary school literacy and numeracy strategies ‘long overdue’
Joanna Sugden
The government’s decision to drop primary school literacy and numeracy strategies has been welcomed by teachers’ leaders as long over due.
The national strategies were introduced as a key education reform when New Labour came to power and included centralised directives on how reading and writing should be taught.
“The strategies haven’t been raising standards,” Mary Bousted, general secretary of the Association of Teachers and Lecturers (ATL) said.
“They have deprived teachers of the proper decisions they should be making about how they should teach and what they should teach,” she added.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/education/article6584979.ece
I once made off with a sheet of Letraset from W H Smith’s in Bath, 25 years ago. Got clean away.
No-one knows that until I confessed it just now.
Should I be fired from my job now?
Should I be fired from my job now? Not if you use it to fashion a letter of apology to WHS.
206 was it the Gothic font one?
203 - Not at all.
I think the Lib Dems in Eastbourne may be a decent bet at 15/8, partially because of Watersons arrest but primarily because of his position on the South Downs National Park.
208,did’nt you do this subject last year.
I pinched a 1 inch ‘Baby Pink’ Minors lipstick from the chemist down my road when I was 10.
It didn’t suit me.
As PBers can tell - I wasn’t cut out for a life of crime if I can recall the colour 30yrs on
206
I was once cautioned for possession of cannabis. Can you imagine the org asms inside the No10 smear unit if I were to ever run for office.
Then imagine their org asms if they found about all my other drug use?
207 — If I could steal any typeface it’d be ‘Futura Extra Bold’ (Stanley Kubrick’s favourite).
206- You should be busting rocks like Jean Valjean.
198 - From Parris’ article.
Starting in the next Parliament (and whatever the rules state) Tory MPs should share with the electorate the proceeds of outside work. I’d propose a 50:50 division, after tax. That way, voters would benefit from their investment in a high-earning MP. We might even get Ken Clarke free.
Smart politics.
But would the conservative MPs take that from their trust fund leaders?
208
Timbot =
smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear
smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear smear
208 - tried to earlier this, because it has implicatons in various sets.
Unfortunately MTF didn’t know what Henry Smiths position was despite campaigning for him so we didn’t get far.
No one else thought it was particularly important.
I disagree, I think the Lib Dems on the ground will run with it.
195 Stars what’s the Polling now saying in the NJ Governor’s race. Are Christie’s numbers holding up.
215 - “four seasons in one post”
214 - What about the BBC presenters sharing their outside earning? I hear some of them do incredibly well out of nice side-liners, like talking at NHS conferences.
215 It isn’t often that someone makes me feel sick - tim is one of them.
I’m very glad that he is just an unpleasant wanker on a website that I can scroll by.
I’m sure Labour are delighted to have such an ambassador for their cause.
I see from CHome that Dr Bull has stood down as PPC for Brighton Pavilion to run a Policy Review for Cameron - methinks local polling might be pointing to a Green Party win?
Might be cynical but I do wonder if the good doctor might find a safer seat close to the election…
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/06/david-bull-steps-down-as-candidate-for-brighton-pavilion-to-head-up-policy-review.html
217- The latest poll has Christie up by 12 points, 51% to 39%, but it was done by a GOP polling firm so, naturally, it would be nice to see a non-affiliated poll sometime soon (I’m sure we will).
Meanwhile, there were some highly political theatrics in the U.S. House yesterday when the Dems interrogated Christie about a prosecutorial practice among U.S. attorneys known as deferred prosecution agreements, whereby they agree to not prosecute companies if they agree to fines and reformed practices. Of course, the Dems were trying to make this common practice look nefarious and slime Christie (no other U.S. attorneys were grilled by the panel).
http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/30901/tensions-boil-over-between-christie-and-cohen
221. Thats what i was thinking!
220 - like it or not Watersons arrest and his position on the National Park has political and betting implications.
If you don’t want to accept that I’m afraid we’ll just have to disagree.
221 - Thers going to be a lot of those soon.
The second jobs stuff has delayed some removals but I’m sure Bull will reappear in a safe seat.
Is anyone prepared to lay odds that Fraser Nelson may turn up in a safe seat?
Ten Things You Didn’t Know About Mark Sanford
1. Gov. Sanford is an avid dancer, and he knows it takes two to tango!
2. At neighborhood barbecues, he loves fliping his meat gaucho style.
3. If he ever fathers a girl, he’s already picked out the name: Malvina
4. When emailing significant others, he likes to quote from both scripture and his schedule.
5. A longtime runner, in recent years the Governor has also become an avid hiker, eager to hit the trail with his stout hiking staff.
6. Trade between the State of South Carolina and the Province of Buenos Aires has trippled during his administration.
7. “El Gobernador” would rather be correcto que Presidente.
8. Sanford is an skilled horseman. Which explains the intricate leather harnesses with strapes, hooks, etc. that he puchaseded duty free at the Buenos Aires airport.
9. His favorite song: “Don’t Cry for Me, Argentina”
10. As a boy, only kid on his street to dress up for Halloween as Juan Peron.
224
Thats a load of cobblers, every position any PPC takes about anything has political implications. You could say that about all 650 odd seats. Shall we discuss all the other 650 seats as well or do we just go back to your original intention of smearing as you did upthread.
226 - But you have a chance to post something involving politics, betting and local knowledge.
Why not do it?
How do you think South Downs National Parks debate affects the seats in your area.
206 - no worries, I’ve already forwarded you comment to your HR department. So you should be getting a call any minute now!
Was Tony Blair ever questioned under caution over cash for questions?
227. Troll!
229. habib butt
Yes i believe he did get cautioned!
206 - In my misspent youth, I once stole a goat
226
Tim I have a chance to point out that you are smearing, job done.
231 - Thanks for that Martin.
231. No sorry - he was threated with being put under caution but said he would resign IIRC!
235 - It’s ok, it was Lord Levy that was arrested.
and Ruth Turner.
On the “10% cuts” front -
As Brown and co have gone for a simplistic (over-simplified to the point of parody) message on “They’ll cut 10% off of everything”, I wonder if there would be mileage in saying:
“Well, we weren’t that strapped at spending levels from 2 years ago … and they were 10% down on today”
To be fair, that’s ignoring inflation (which has been very low in any case, by the Government’s own figures); 2005 levels would be fairer. If fairness counts in this … so how about:
“Were public services really so drastically underfunded in 2005? That’s the level of cuts we’re proposing in everything except the NHS - which will go up”
And yes, that ignores the increase in welfare bill since the recession started, but if Labour point that out (“Hey, you’re ignoring the huge surge in unemployment! Look at the unemployment! Emm - actually - never mind. Don’t look at the unemployment …”), it may not be a great help to them.
Only problem is, it highlights a “successful” era in Labour’s economic history and might be as comprehensive a shooting of one’s own feet by the Tories as Brown’s current stance is for him …
Especially if Labour say “Okay, good point, we’ll go back to our successful plans of 3 years ago, wasn’t Gordon great then”, or words to that effect. Although that might require Brown to admit that the last few years of economic management were mistakes in comparison, so maybe that’s not a risk after all.
233 - What a shame, you had an opportunity to post something interesting,with local knowledge and relevant to betting and politics.
For the benefit of everyone who reads this blog I think its best if we ignore each others posts, call it musical differences if you like but theres no point you dong your smear/bot/bunker/nokia routine every time I post anything.
Theres people on this blog paying for bandwidth on their summer holidays, so can we have an amicable seperation?
232, habib.
The mind boggles.
225 Has Bill Clinton passed any comment.
What a shame, you had an opportunity to post something interesting,with local knowledge and relevant to betting and politics.
Does this phrase remind anyone of anyone?
240 - It was after a alcohol fueled, post uni rugby match. And we stole the oppositions mascot.
238 - The argument I’d put against that is basically Darlings point, that
a.If we hadn’t saved the banks then the Western Economy would have collapsed.
b.Had we not acted on a fiscal and monetary stimulus then Osbornes predictions that Britain would have the worlds worst recession, would have come true.
c.Times are going to be tough for the next five year, but we’re all in this together and we must prioritise front line services and not our rich friends.
239,Tim,why not tell us about your area,where you live,your local knowledge and relevant to betting and politics.I’am sure we will find it very interesting OR MAY BE NOT.
239
You cannot be serious Tim, you give all this baloney as though its I who am at fault… the problems start when you try to smear people as you did upthread. You do that, I’ll continue to point it out.. If you stop smearing it wontneed to , the remedy is in your hands not mine.
241 only when inhaling
“White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said he spoke with the president Friday morning about Jackson’s death, and Obama called the “King of Pop” a “spectacular performer, a music icon.”
“I think everybody remembers hearing his songs, watching him moonwalk on television during Motown’s 25th anniversary,” Gibbs said. “But the president also said he had aspects of his life that were sad and tragic.”"
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/obama-offers-condolences-to-jacksons-family-2009-06-26.html
241 - not yet . . . and would NOT make book on it, that’s for sure.
There’s a limit to even Bubba’s hutzpah!
Though I would wager (figure of speech only) that he’s more likely to still be married to Madame Secretary than the Gov is to his current lawful spouse.
Because their was method in Bill Clinton’s madness. Whereas the opposite unfortuantely appears to be the case for Mark Sanford.
246,MTF,I think you are getting to tim,if you read 239,it looks like tim wants a truce.
246
Bill Clinton didn’t inhale! He said so himself.
In fact he went to the shop and got some Veras. Then he popped round to the dealer and scored an eighth. Then he went home, laboriously rolled the joint. Lit it, had a toke, BUT DIDN’T INHALE
“So in the poll a remarkable 77% thought it was “possible to cut spending by 10% by running public services more efficiently, without reducing their quality or cutting the level of welfare spending..” against just `14% who said it wasn’t.”
Simply astounding. And utterly depressing. Just how dull are the electorate?
Serious cuts have to happen, of course, but to imagine that it can be done with no visible effect is laughable.
My local council has been coping with real-terms cuts of far less than 10% in the last couple of years. The road to my village no longer gets gritted, and 5 small rural schools are to close in September. I’m no fan of the junta which runs our local council, but to pretend they can cut 10% from their budget through being less inefficient is away with the fairies.
Come on, Habib, tell us about the goat! You know you want to; confession is good for the soul, you know.
248- SSI, what is your reaction to NY state senator Parker (D-Brooklyn) calling Paterson a “coke-head” and that he “bangs his staff”? Have you ever seen the likes of it?
245 - It was pointed out to you last night (by a Tory poster) that posting endlessly about my “smears” endelessly and irrelevantly doesn’t do any favours to anyone reading this board.
So lets just ignore each others posts.
Of course it’s possible
The waste is endemic, and appalling. And we have no choice anyway. Although it might need to be more than 10%
My company is profitable and generally well run, or so I thought. But we could do better, we waste a lot. The last year has revealed some astonishing inefficiencies, simply because we have been forced to save money. It hasn’t actually been as hard as we thought, not easy, but perfectly possible. Waste during fast growth in 2005-7 was huge, but was masked by growing profits.
The potential savings in a well-run and efficient public sector must be vast.
248 Schadenfreude shurely after Sanford’s attacks on Bubba.
147 Imagine an Edwin Edwards White House combining the wrongdoing of Harding, the incompetence of Carter and the activities of JFK.
244,
So why don’t Labour just do that? Shoot the Tories fox on cuts?
If Labour offer 10% cuts themselves with a plausible line on how they can be effected relatively painlessly (”remember spending levels in 2005? That’s what we’ll go back to” ), then the upside for them is pretty big:
- It will give them an increase in support or it won’t. If it does, it could take them from “landslide loss” to “loss but could get back in one term” or even to “hung parliament”.
- Regardless of the boost (or lack of it), after the election and assuming the Tories cuts cause at least some pain, they can holler “Why didn’t you let us do it? We told you how to do it painlessly!”, which would help them swing it round on the Cameron government.
- And if they somehow pulled off a win, then there would be a strong chance that the Tories could collapse again after having victory snatched away.
The only thing is that it requires a 180 degree turnaround in line over the cuts versus spending line that Brown’s doggedly holding to.
tim = attempt to take moral high-ground
HHAHAHAHHAHAAHHA
253
I refer you to my previous answer. the remedy is in your hands not mine
Goodnight
Habib.
I’m increasingly nervous about our “will there be more Old Etonians on the Conservative benches that non white people” bet.
However, I suspect you have an interesting backstory and I’d like to add a rider to the bet.
Whoever loses the bet pays for a meal in Wong Kei’s in Soho (chosen because its the only place I know where the waiters are ruder than a discussion on here)
I’ll hand over tha cash and you can tell me about the goat.
256 - Andy, you think yo are frustrated with the obvious, imagine how I feel.
I didn’t hear Benn on Any Questions but it sounds like he gets it (which I never doubted)
255- Speaking of the great state of Louisiana, see rapper Hurricane Chris bustin’ some rhymes about Halle Berry on the floor of the Louisiana House:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0PCQYalZU8
251/259 - About the goat. There was a bit of needle between the two teams, because one of my team mates, had slept with one of the opposition players girlfriend, and sister (at the same time)
After lots of gouging, sledging, punching during the match, we went to their club bar. For some more sledging
And one of their players, of farming stock, had a goat, which they considered to be a good luck charm/mascot.
After way too many insults and booze, we hatched a plan, to steal the goat. With all the nous of 20drunkards, we set the fire alarm off, and made of with the goat.
At around 3pm the next day, i woke up with 2 fellow members of my rugby team in my bed, and a goat next to the bed.
Very sad and everything but why is Michael Jackson the only subject on Newsnight tonight?
259 - Sure Tim, I have plenty of stories to tell. However i need to check the restraining order banning me from going within 500yards of Soho has expired.
214 - What about the BBC presenters sharing their outside earning? I hear some of them do incredibly well out of nice side-liners, like talking at NHS conferences. - Oracle
Oracle. News people on news channels in the private sector are generally paid significantly more than the BBC. Staff move to the BBC for prestige and audience figures other reasons but rarely for money.
262 Hmmmmm…..
Not sure that would stand up in a Somerset Magistrates’ Court, somehow, but we will believe you regardless.
254. No, sorry. While I may admit that it’s theoretically possible, in an article-by-an-economist sense, it’s just not going to happen is it.
I work in a kind of pseudo public sector organisation. We’re finding 5% cuts next year (would have been more but we’ve been working our backsides off increasing income). There are savings that could be made with better procurement, but the reality is we’re losing 10% of the staff in our department through non-replacement of retirees. It cannot fail to make a difference.
Our expenses are tiny - many working in similarly-sized private sector organizations would laugh at them. Our pensions are better, of course. You could save 10% by a pay cut and complete reorganisation of penion entitlements. Is it theoretically possible? Yes. Is it going to happen? No.
We may have to agree to disagree but there is no way in this universe that a 10% cut in funding for public services will not have a visible effect on the users of the services.
There do have to be cuts, though, you’re right - the political posturing on this issue is utter nonsense.
260, True.
We’ve had some bad blood in the past, but I really don’t think that there’s much I could do or say that would cause you any more frustration and pain than the activities of those running your side at the moment. Well, mainly Brown, to be fair.
You must be pulling your hair out.
266 - Augustus, there is photographic evidence somewhere
TIMBOT=SMEARBOT
MTF=CRIESLIKEWEEGIRLBOT
267
I spent my life in private business cutting costs.
I venture to suggest - judging from what I see:
1. the BBC could run the same services with a 20% spending cut: it is grossly overmanned/wommaned and extravagant.
and
2. Judging by the vast numbers of non productive jobs i see advertise for quangos . local government and the NHS.. a 10% cut could be made with zero impact of font line services.
Of course political correctness, translating everything into 15 languages and Diversity Officers would no longer exist..
267,
I think you’re actually both right: 10% cuts without impacting the front line are eminently possible in theory, but there are too many political considerations that prevent it. That 10% pay cut, for example.
Or, my favourite, having held a public sector budget for a few years in the past - remove annuality. In effect, allow full accrual across years. End the “must commit by end of year” rule; if it goes across years, treat it as if it’s in a building society account. Treat each year afresh - if you underspent last year, receive a pat on the back, but don’t have your budget for next year cut down “as you’ve proved you don’t need it”. Instead, it’s effectively in a bank account until you do need it. No need for budgetary padding, or late year madness (gotta buy something or there’ll be an underspend!).
there would obviously need to be some checks and balances - say a 10% audit of underspends on the “Why didn’t you spend it this year?”/”We realised that if we held off 2 months, the supplier was releasing a newer and cheaper model. Here, look at this” kind of level.
And if you don’t spend it in 4 years, that element is clawed back unless you make an exceptional case.
267. Meurig, I think I owe you £10 over the Euro elections. Email me at corporeal@live.com and I’ll sort something out (although there may be a slight delay, minor cash flow issues).
271
(contd).
And the number of road signs would decrease, fines for public order offences would treble and no-one on welfare could ever get more than the Minimum Wage x 37.5 hours…and all benefits would be subject to tax: but that too would be irrelevant as the Minimum Income at which tax started being paid would be the same Minimum Wage x 37.5 hours.
It would simplify systems quite a lot…
220 - admiring your work plato, nice job
268 - I know.
I gave up smoking seven years ago when my first daughter was born, Brown is going to drive me back to it.
On the other hand your guy is making a few slips at the moment,
Bercow hate, Iran, Hunting, European friends etc.
I was surprised at the Norwich poll not reflecting the bookies odds.
263. I am already utterly bored by the Jacko stuff, and it makes me uneasy considering he made a large out of court settlement in a child abuse case. The media feel that they have to jump on the bandwagon, I suppose.
276- Since nothing else seems to be working for Labour, I would suggest that Brown et al should take up the habit; it might be the one remaining way they could try to imitate Obama. I can already see the election posters featuring Brown, clad in tight jeans and black leather jacket, taking a drag and looking like a million bucks!
277 - I agree.
A victim of child abuse who pays $22 million out of court to a childs family.
No flowers please, donations to a childrens charity.
273 Re Ceredigion. Confusion resolved. I didn’t allow for the turnout drop which mean’t your % increased even if your total vote fell. All in all I think I’ll see what the odds are on Mark Williams holding.
272. Yes, that’s kind of what I mean. A 10% pay cut or a reorganisation of pensions is possible, but would be political suicide and would lead to union unrest which, again, would be noticed by service users.
There are some maddening things about working in the public sector which are obviously inefficient and drive me crazy, but they’re generally the result of the kind of short-term budgeting you describe, or the actions of governments (of all colours) trying to interfere and micromanage.
In Daily Mail world I’m sure well over 10% of people working in the public sector are Diversity Officers and thought police. Overall we have well over 1000 staff, and not a Diversity Officer in sight. One or two jobs I’d gladly see the back of, in fact probably a whole department or two, but this is way, way short of a 10% cut.
281 How do you see Ceredigion.
281
If you think public pensions are fundable - they are not. I cannot see private taxpayers funding public servants having better pension rights than themselves.
Politically it’s a disaster about to happen.
As far as strikes are concerned, I remind you of the miners..
The ultimate outcome will be the same. Economics will out, every time.
I think the Bercow thing is the party at large, rather than Cameron. I reckon he’ll let them vent for a short while and then quietly ensure that they know there’ll be no attempt at dislodging Bercow either from his seat or his Speakership.
Iran and hunting - hmm - you can argue the point, but neither have gotten much traction, and it could be argued that his Iran statements weren’t far from Sarkozy’s.
European friends - well, I think he hasn’t done too badly. And I don’t think that any criticism is gaining much traction - it’s part of the “EU details - who cares?” meme that Mike holds to: important for those of us who are geeks, but how many of us swing elections? I’m effectively in the swing voter category, having voted for each of the 3 parties once and deliberately abstained in despair once (out of 4 GEs), but I don’t kid myself that what I view as important is what most “normal” non-political-anoraks view as important.
With the Norwich poll, I’m not too worried. Constituency polls tend to be incredibly fraught, and in previous by-elections, there’s been a tendency for the Lab-Con swing to be strongly downplayed (I’ve held that the ICM adjustment is a mistake in the case of constituency polls, as the unadjusted score seems to almost always be significantly closer to the real score, but that could be false memory). We’ll see what happens.
I think that Brown is diverting a lot of the mdeia’s negative attention onto himself in any case, which gives Cameron more freedom in any case. What you need is an untarnished Blair figure, but I can’t see one anywahere in the Labour Party at the moment.
278 Stars and Stripes
William Hague famously made a prat of himself by wearing a baseball cap at Notting Hill carnival to make himself look cool. Very few politicians can pull off “cool”.
Chirac could. Check out this picture from his youth:
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/42829000/jpg/_42829481_chirac_body_fr.jpg
Boris is widely considered cool.
And Obama gets mega cool points for his basketball skills
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j87k1j4CpOw
But Blair or Cameron couldn’t ever do it (and are smart enough never ever to try). Merkel? No way. Sarkozy or Berlusconi? LOLOLOL
282. How do I see Ceredigion? I look out of my window!
To be honest, unpredictable.
I have my ideas of course but a. I’m not particularly keen to share my thoughts online on a campaign that I’m involved in and b. I may be embarrassingly wrong.
Corporeal: I won’t go to the barricades over a tenner!
Tempted to ask you to send a cheque to the Ceredigion Plaid campaign, but if you like, send a tenner to this chap:
http://www.justgiving.com/carwyn/
A worthy cause and an old friend. Actually, an old friend who is a big advocate of closer and more amicable relations between Plaid and the Lib Dems.
285,
I’ve now got an image of Jeremy Clarkson at a politicians Cool Wall
260. Ref. Any Questions, there’s a silly piece on Labour Home, possibly written by a no 10 numpty, saying that Benn has just lost the next election
http://www.labourhome.org/forum/?p=6100
- Benn merely had the temerity to say that Labour, having rightly borrowed to get us out of the recession quickly, will have to make cutbacks to balance the books subsequently.
I don’t think the rest of the cabinet buys the Brown line at all.
283 - We agree on a matter of economics
In 1948 when britons are retiring now were born had an average life expectancy of 68.
Now its 78.
Retirement age must rise in both the public and private sector.
And those who work beyond it must have a tapering down of taxes.
285- I think Berlusconi looks pretty cool. Sort of Sinatra cool. Always dresses great, nice teeth, good skin. I hope I look that good should I be fortunate enough to attain his age.
278. S&S: I can already see the election posters featuring Brown, clad in tight jeans and black leather jacket, taking a drag and looking like a million bucks!
Yeah, all green and wrinkly…
285 - Ther is not a log slide at the Notting Hill Carnival.
Hagues moment was in some theme park or other.
296 With the help of a good surgeon don’t worry.
291. wibbler: And Obama gets mega cool points for his basketball skills
He shouldn’t have tried bowling, though!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-Bx5dOmV-8
“Michael Jackson in perspective: Was it really necessary for Brown and Cameron to issue tributes?”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1195850/Michael-Jackson-perspective-Was-really-necessary-Brown-Cameron-issue-tributes.html
277 Just because he made an out of court settlement doesn’t mean he is guilty.
There are many reasons why such a thing might be done including ensuring manipulative parents don’t force a child to give false or pressured evidence.
I have no idea what happened in this case - but then neither does anyone on here.
Who is this Jacko person?
290 -
1.The significance of the Bercow thing, which I don’t think resonates beyond us obsessives too much, is how quickly the tory Party can relapse back into nasty.
And to be fair I thought it was Osborne in the house who sussed the attitude behind him first.
2.Parachuting into Georgia and setting out Iran policy to the Conservative Friends of Israel, are inor slips that won’t resonate widely but make me nervous about his maturity.
3.On Hunting, its a gift for Labour to get its marginal seat cuddly animal voters out and also taps into the “what are their priorities” meme.
4.The Tories have to win Norwich.
Thats Daves selling point over the expenses stuff.
277. You sad pompous twats. So Jackson fiddled with a couple of kids, who gives a f*ck. He made the lives of millions that little bit brighter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjW1iq4IO2k&feature=related
May God watch over his epaulettes in heaven.
305 - So you got the Gary Glitter Obituary gig then?
Shock horror, England win penalty shoot-out!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/internationals/8116495.stm
305. Very poor post , lets hope it never happens to your daughter, will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you have had a few shandies too much.
293.Andy Cooke - Surely it is Time to get the Jeremy Clarkson bandwagon for SHEFFEILD HALLAM rolling again?
They don’t make it easy for themselves, do they?
http://davidjonesblog.com/2009/06/26/political-balance/
Glitter is more ambivalent. A nasty piece of work, but his early hits (Rock and Roll, Leader of the Gang) were upliftingly bombastic examples of Glamrock.
How do you seperate the artist from the personality? Should we not mourn Wagner cause of his undoubted antiSemitism?
In the scheme of things Jackons’s (alleged) sins were RELATIVELY minor compared to the enormous joy he brought people right across the world.
And when you compare a true artist like Jackson to thoroughgoing c*nts like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, who never brought a moment’s joy to anyone anywhere ever, and who managed to start an illegal war that KILLED HALF A MILLION PEOPLE…
Beat It.
311. You don’t half write some b*llocks at times.
308. Sanctimonious knobhead.
313. You are mental, off to bed now laughing.
314- Never walk away just when a good fight is starting.
213, Would you rather see Jackson in prison for 20 years for possibly fondling a couple of boys who then got $30m, or…. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, who lied to take us into a disastrous war that KILLED hundreds of thousands?
KILLED versus FONDLED
HALF A MILLION versus TWO
Perspective, old chap, perspective. I know that’s difficult for someone of lower mental stature, but do try.
273. A point is, and i am involved in local government at a senior level, it isnt that local authorities dont have enough money to carry out their core services, its that they spend their money on things which are not part of their duties. Many Councils out there today, if they reverted to doing only the activities designated as statutory by Parliament, and inspection and external audit was reduced to financial matters, they would be able to reduce their staffing between 40% and 70% with similar reductions in their revenue budgets.
315 - Its Iran vs Iraq again.
You want both to lose but no internet bookmakers are interested.
315. Unfortunately I am reasonably sober and despite the fun need sleep, I am sure he will find someone else to abuse.
319 - abuse? No that’s down the hall. This is the argument room.
319. Come back and fight like a man, you quivering handbag of undropped testicles.
317 - but Gaz, you’ve spent months telling us all that Government should use numerous expensive unresearched single vaccines rather than the tried, tested, cheaper safer MMR option.
Are we to believe your “saving money in the right ares” riff?
316. Sean, assume you meant me at 312 , rather see the parents of the child in jail , and also blair and Brown. Mentally I am just about surviving thank you for your concern though.
316. You have a fair point as it was never proved one way or the other in relation to Jackson, most thought the worst.
If MJ had buggered them they would be able to identify tell tale signs of them being penetrated but they did not IIRC.
With Blair/Brown the number of deaths and the attrocities that lets remember included US soldiers raping a minor………
Evening all
Amused to see that tim is getting very excited about Eastbourne tonight.
321. Better than a half used puff pasty
301. interesting and aargh.. I actually agree with a Mail editorial for once
“Truly, we live in a world which no longer discerns between those who achieve fame, and the few who are genuinely touched by lasting greatness.”
the Sean Ts of this world can’t distinguish between a Jacko and a Wagner
317.
‘they would be able to reduce their staffing between 40% and 70%.’
How so? Surely quite a hefty chunk of local authority employees are schoolteachers and that is kind of a core service.
325 - Not excited about Eastbourne.
But if the Lib Dems perform on the groubnd 15/8 is a good price.
327. Outside of the all important Nazi demographic, Michael Jackson sold considerably more records than Wagner.
330. He almost rivalled the Bay City Rollers in their heyday.
330 - And downloads.
300 LondonStatto
No, I imagine that’s an episode he probably wants to forget…
I’m having serious trouble thinking of current world leaders I would say were cool.
Vladimir Putin is just plain scary. Hu Jintao is boooooring. Taro Aso is just about the only politician less cool than Brown. Manmohan Singh is a technocrat. Kevin Rudd is a nerd.
Matthew Parris devotes his Saturday column to Gordon Brown = liar. I think the genie is out of the bottle on this now tim and if so it hardly matters what Brown says any more or how he changes approach as no one will believe him.
334. Surely there were precious few who believed him previously , he cannot speak without lying.
326. Is that a gay Cornishman? A puff pasty? lol. Go to bed you flatulent haggis-f*cker.
327. We await your analysis of why Wagner was great and Jacko wasn’t.
331- almost: he wouldn’t have looked good in Woody’s tartan pants
331. Which particular record in their timeless oeuvre sold 65 million copies?
336. Sean, A pleasant good evening to you.
331 & 332 - Downloads were not as prevalent in Richard Wagner’s day as they are now, and there were fewer record shops.
On the good side, he could have sued Tolkien over Lord of the Rings
338. Did any of their records sell less? They were real stars with style as well.
271 - John, regarding my comment about BBC presenters and their outside earnings, I think you need to read the context more carefully.
My comment wasn’t really serious saying they should. It was in reply to the Smearbot saying that it would be good for MP’s to share their outside earning with the public purse 50/50.
That is no more sensible than BBC presenters asked to do the same (who we know get in the region of £90k a year for doing BBC New 24, more than an MP’s pay, and many are charging up to £5k a pop for speaking arrangements), that was the point I was making.
I don’t seriously think BBC presenters should share their income, neither should MP’s, or any area where people have multiple jobs. However, those in these public funded positions, who want to get extra income, should do so without sacrificing / effecting their primary roles i.e MP’s missing votes / select committees, BBC presenters unable to do the news because they are at an NHS conference, etc.
I reckon Skynews website have gone way over the top on Wacko Jacko (or is it “Michael” now, like Princess Di became “Diana”). 16 stories for him, 1 for Fawcett, nothing about anything else. I hope their clicks take a hit and they find people aren’t interested.
We’ll get a feel for demand by how long the papers can be bothered to cover it.
Sikipedia’s been down all day which indicates people are buying it entirely.
338. I’m presuming MalcolmG meant this in “jest”. If he really believes the Bay City Rollers outsold Jacko then his knowledge of popular music is as lamentable as his knowledge of…. absolutely everything else.
343 aren’t buying it entirely.
Effing dyslexia.
258 - don’t know anything about Gov Patterson’s alleged blowing/banging. Certainly wasn’t in the state, let alone the room!
New York does have it’s lusty political traditions. For example, Nelson Rockefeller was full of live . . . overfollowing in fact . . . right to the end . . .
And of course the decorum of the NY Legislature is legendary. Though not a famed as say the Arkansas Territorial Legislature. Where they had to ban bowie knives (aka “Arkansas toothpicks”) on the floor of both houses.
338, 341. Oh god, my mistake, HE THINKS ITS TRUE.
Malcolm G actually thinks the Bay City Rollers sold as many records as Michael Jackson.
I might have to graffiti this fact on the pb toilet walls.
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Saturday-June-27-2009/Media-Gallery/200906415320950?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15320950_The_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Saturday_June_27%2C_2009
333 - This man is the coolest leader in the world by miles.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manmohan_Singh
We like to believe that we’re changing fast in the West and so accepting of mniorities etc.
This guy comes from a a communioty that represents 2% of the population and has changed hundreds of millions of peoples lives.
And,
He started off as an economics wonk and has become cooler with age.
348 - The Sun front page reminds me of this ditty,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXROnzpsrlg
348 Thank God for the FT.
343. Sparky
What you have got to remeber is Wacko Jacko in the US is probably causing the same stir of emotions as Diana here in 1997. There are some similarities in that before she died public opinion was not so favourable to Diana following all what was said and done. The same is for Jacko a collective guilt trip but this time in the US!
It is a big story given that some link Obama becoming POTUS by Jacksons assesent to being a world mega star! It has to be remembered that they are within just a few years of each other yetJackson has been a pioneer for “Black folk” breaking down the barriers for success.
351 LOL. Even the Independent couldn’t resist it.
351 - Telegraph got a couple of interesting stories on their front page as well.
354 Oracle - I think you mean this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5651825/Benefit-payouts-will-exceed-income-tax-revenue.html
343. No, I reckon the papers have it right, this is big, maybe not quite Diana - but big. Jacko was probably the greatest pop star of the last 30 years (who compares?) - what’s more he was genuinely a genius. And he had a soap opera life of scandal and shame and weirdness.
And now this extra mystery to his death just puts the cherry on an already appetising media cake.
It’s one of the biggest stories of the year, for sure.
355 - Yes, and,
Record numbers of A-level students ‘to be rejected from university’
Record numbers of A-level students, including thousands with straight-As, will be rejected from university this summer as applications soar in the recession.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/5653145/Record-numbers-of-A-level-students-to-be-rejected-from-university.html
I wish the government and universities would pull their finger out, make the exam dates for A-levels a month or so earlier, thus allowing have application process based on actual grades rather than predicted ones.
The Suns front page looks like a list of East European names that the Daily Maily would have you believe are about to move in next door.
Benefit payouts will exceed income tax revenue:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5651825/Benefit-payouts-will-exceed-income-tax-revenue.html
This is very symbolic and makes Gordon Browns 10% lies
“Andrew Grice: It’s your choice: Dodgy Gordon or Honest David
“My MPs hate me,” David Cameron was heard to remark this week. In an attempt to woo – or at least reassure – voters, the Tory leader has alienated his backbenchers by shaming them into paying back more than £250,000 in expenses to authorities in the Commons.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-its-your-choice–dodgy-gordon–or-honest-david-1721545.html
343. PS - Google News cites 17,000 separate sources for the Jackson story.
17,000!
That’s about as big as a story gets. The only equivalent I can recall, in recent days, is Obama’s election.
356- That’s about right. MJ’s death is big, but not quite on a Diana scale. After all, Diana was still at her zenith when she departed, while MJ has been washed up and out of the limelight for quite a while other than his personal problems. If MJ had died circa 1990, though, it would have been like Diana.
328. A hefty chunk??? My local authority doesnt employ a single teacher.
“Anne McElvoy: Can the Tories and the North ever go together?”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/anne-mcelvoy-can-the-tories-and-the-north-ever-go-together-1721564.html
349 Tim. Good call. I admire the guy as well.
Much better than most of the clowns that we have in the west.
Cap and trade bill passed the House, 219-212… now it goes to the Senate.
352 I agree. Maybe it’s cos I’m culturally white and never liked his music (except for ABC which was good) that I can’t be bothered with it. Jarvis Cocker taking the pee was years ago and he’s been totally discredited for much longer than that.
At work my Black colleagues weren’t much bothered with it either, but my Black chavvy neighbours (who are v Black culturally) are obviously moved. To the point that they open all their window and play his catalogue v loudly. There’s no focal point for it though, thank goodness, no gates at which to lay flowers, no flag to lower etc.
And I don’t like the canonisation either. Last week he was a laughing stock freak, today he’s genius. How come? Cos he’s dead? There’s a dishonesty about it all.
358. The Daily Mail was far more accurate about the numbers of eastern europeans that would come then the Government were.
Did I miss anything?
Re: Michael Jackson’s legal situation.
Can’t say I’m an expert on it, but do remember his trial. And came away feeling that the evidence produced against him wasn’t good enough, not by a long shot. Plus the prosecutor came off looking crazier than Jacko which was VERY hard to do but he did it.
So most you can say against Jackson on this score is Scots verdict: not proven.
Re: comparison between Jackson and Wagner, it’s actually quite apt in many ways. Believe these two were more alike than different, certainly as artists and celebrities.
As for their lasting reputation, our era doesn’t get to make the decision. Personally think the mass impact of Michael Jackson (and Richard Wagner) is two-fold.
>>> 1st, upon the millions, or rather billions who saw and listened to him at his prime; and
>>> 2nd, upon later audiences, and most especially other musicians, singers, actors, dancers, celebrities artistically and culturally influenced by MJ’s best work.
QUESTION: Who do YOU reckon in real life is PB’s best Moonwalker?
My #1 vote goes to . . . tim!
For even Tories proclaim he’s a slipperly devil!
And my #2 is . . . wait for it . . . . Shadsy!
360. The reason why Cam has upset Tory colleagues told to give money back is that they know it’s to divert attention away from the embarrassing 900 quid he had to pay back for his wisteria trimming. I don’t think all the colleagues claimed, as he did, the maximum for mortage interest either.
368
Yes Gaz.
And about MMR and Poles and Gypsies and Gays and Jews.
Well done Gaz.
366. You mean the “Cap and trade (with lobbyist-inserted huge handouts for coal power stations) bill”?
In terms of cutting 10% from spending, can anybody tell me what the hell Regional Development Agencies do? I have’nt a clue. Does anybody else have an idea?
367. Yes, People like MJ have a group of people who have followed him devotly. What happens is you get all the crying fans on the TV and it ripples out as though everyone is moved. I dont want to sound calas but i felt it was OTT with Diana - frankly i was sorry she died but that was it!
364 - “Why me?” Alan Duncan reveals he asked plaintively when told to go and make new friend on the Tyne as North-east envoy. “Because you’re the only one who can get away with it,” replied Mr Cameron.
Where to start?
367. So liking his music or not is a matter of being “culturally white”?
I suddenly feel like we’re living in the 1960s again, with those dangerous negro tunes that might corrupt our children!
373- God only knows what’s really in the beast that was just passed. Waxman added a 300-page rider in the dead of night last night, which doubtless nobody read today. So, frankly, I doubt the congressmen and women who just voted on the bill know much more about what’s in it than you or I. We will find out, though, sooner or later.
370 - “slipperly” for the uninitiated, is the combination of “slippery” and “slimy”!
377- Well, at least Pat Boone didn’t do covers of Thriller and Billie Jean for the benefit of the impressionable youngsters.
375. What I found baffling about the grief over Princess Diana was that, as the Queen herself said, people ‘felt they knew her’. But how? She was seen but so rarely heard (in a meaningful way). There was the Bashir interview, and that was pretty much it. It was as if people were projecting an ideal onto her, and grieving for the loss of that.
Actually, that’s the one common factor between these two tragedies - Martin Bashir. His television tribute tonight was…well, let’s say a few people might doubt its sincerity.
375 I wonder if the media can profit from creating collective catharsis. If they can build up a mass of emotion, and it gets beyond a certain point, do people crave it more and more, adn buy more and more media.
I reckon the Indy should have gone for something else today to cater for the couldn’t-care-less paper-buying public. That would have been a smart move.
365 - In 1991, India’s then-Prime Minister, P.V. Narasimha Rao, chose Singh to be the Finance Minister. At the time, India was facing an economic crisis. Rao and Singh decided to open up the economy and change the socialist economic system to a capitalist economy.
Probably the most important single decision made by any politicians in the last twenty years.
And elected twice in a country that rarely does that with style and grace that shames our second raters.
http://www.topnews.in/files/ManmohanSingh1.jpg
381. Red Meteor
Shame Gordon Brown has not been interviewed by Martin Bashir!
365 - In 1991, India’s then-Prime Minister, P.V. Narasimha Rao, chose Singh to be the Finance Minister. At the time, India was facing an economic crisis. Rao and Singh decided to open up the economy and change the socialist economic system to a capitalist economy.
Probably the most important single decision made by any politicians in the last twenty years.
And elected twice in a country that rarely does that with style and grace that shames our second raters.
372. Government estimated figures 20,000 actual figures about 500,000
382. I am bored rigid with it! I would say stiff but people might think i was perverted!
Its the same with any of these people when they die - they go on and on!
377 When it comes to tastes in music, I’d categorise Jackson as MOBO. Personally I prefer rock music. Is that OK with you?
365 - Any politician in this country needs to read this and weep.
http://awesomeplanet.blogspot.com/2008/03/dr-manmohan-singh-most-qualified-prime.html
378 If you are complaining about poor legislative drafting and scrutiny you have not seen the Parliamentary Standards Bill, introduced by Harriet Harman. To quote one of many shocking examples of drafting by the Government:
“Efficiency
10 The IPSA [Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority] must aim to do things efficiently and cost-effectively.”
Schedule 1, Paragraph 10
384. Maggie did the same thing, history will remember her as saviour of this nation.
387. All rock music is Of Black Origin. In fact, I’d venture to say all pop music is.
391. Whatever.
390. Which nation? She’s certainly the mother of Scottish Home Rule, and for that one thing we’ll always be eternally grateful. Not for much else, admittedly.
382. Undoubtedly, that’s what happened with Lady Di. That’s why I thought it was so pathetic of TB and Ali Campbell to stoke it up - they knew what they were doing.
Though the Jacko thing is a bit different because there is a more immediate “story” - the mysterious doctor, where is he, what was he up to etc.
390 - i know you’re big on “south Asian Corruption”.
Who do you think is wealthier.
Mark Thatcher , or all of singhs family put together?
377 > 367 - whole point of Michael Jackson was that he WAS culturally White. AND Black.
Cultural/historical role of Elvis Presley was to make Blackness in White people acceptable for White people and also for Black people. In sense that it was OK for White man to sing and act and walk and talk and (here’s the big one) sex like a Black man.
OK in the sense that it was attactive to the young but not too scary for the old. Safe cool.
Presley was followed by Jackson. Who made Blackness in Black people acceptable for White people (and in an indirect sort of sense for Black people too). In a way that had never really existed before then.
The fact that Jacko was willing to go more than half way in meeting White America was self evident from the day he lost the ‘fro. Of course in the end he went way overboard (though only his dermatologist knows just how much) with the White thing which was the first big thing that really creeped people (of every hue) out about Jacko. Along with the “boy-man” thing that Sir Paul McC referenced in his press statement. But even the perverts thought MJ was nuts re: the “White like me thing.”
As to the Jackson-Obama link, it’s there all right. Just as their is between the Black man who formented a slave revolt in 1800 and was hanged during the election season to demonstate that Thomas Jefferson and Virginia Republicans (really proto-Democrats) were “tough on crime and the causes of crime” on the one hand, and the Black man who won the Virginia statewide vote in 2008 and was elected President of the United States.
394. I was actually quite impressed with Blair’s speech after Di died.
It was one of the first times we saw him acting as a leader, speaking to the cameras, saying the right things, unscripted.
With hindsight, I can see that the event suited him. He was good when put on the spot, like Obama… but unlike some others.
396. All I was saying was that the Black people I know at work (who tend towards a white (or dominant culture) lifestyle - accent, language, clothes, pastimes etc.) were not as affected by MJ’s death, as the Black people I know in my neighbourhood (who tend towards a black lifestyle - accent, language, clothes, pastimes etc).
It’s a pity MJ isn’t with us now, because he would have been good on this topic.
Three and out. Apologies for taking it OT>
397. I went for some pints in that the Red Lion pub about a year later with a group of friends. One was a LD and he said the same - I was never that impressed but given i had more pressing things in my own life at the time, maybe that was the reason why it never really registered. Alistair Campbell thought it up apparently!
398.
Its not Black or White with him!
400 - yes, the Blair comments were scripted - loosely - by Alistair Campbell. But Blair could be good on his fet.
Mourning for Princes Di and the King of Pop may look similar, but methinks they are very different really.
What most people are mourning today about Jacko is not him, but rather their lost youth.
What folks mourned about Diana was the sheer waste of it. Plus anger at the establishment which built her up, then tore her down, and finally was so clumsy as to lose her, struck down in her prime.
Nobody thinks Michael Jackson was struck down in HIS prime. THAT was twenty years ago and more, and everyone knew it.
Note that you do NOT have to be a big Di/Jacko fan to feel these emotions.
Other difference is, whereas the Diana mourning was a once-off as far as she is concerned, in that it was a transitory phenomenon, think that the Michael Jackson mourning is less over-the-top but likely more long lasting. For one thing, Michael has his very own soundtrack that is implanted in at least half the human population one way or another.
And no way we’ll every forget the Moonwalk.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/sheffieldhallam
398 - that sounds about right to me. Interesting cultural crosscurrents.
403 - I think you have it right. There is intrinsic sadness about a man dying at 50, when a recent (apparently) thorough medical found nothing.
It is even sadder to say that a man who died at 50 did his best work a quarter century ago. There is no ‘unfulfilled promise’, no ‘what might have been’, no ’struck down in his prime’.
and on a more prosaic note - what will Weird Al Jankovic do now that there will be no more MJ videos or songs to parody?
- and what will happen to the Beatles songs rights?
Did MJ leave a will?
404. I wouldn’t get your heart set on that particular Tory gain, Martin, however useless Nick Clegg is. There always tends to be huge local pride in having a party leader represent the constituency. My guess is there’ll be a pro-Lib Dem swing there at the GE, even if that’s well against the national trend.
Surprisingly strong criticism of Cam from Peter Oborne - he reckons that the Jacko story has given him the opportunity to let all the senior shadow cabinet expenses cheats off the hook
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1195879/PETER-OBORNE-Why-David-Cameron-wont-sack-expenses-cheats.html
408. Red Meteor
Maybe so but it is enjoyable sport winding LDs up!
It must be one of the most commented threads!
391. A common misperception.
Rock and pop music derive from the largely black forms of jazz and blues (as everyone accepts), but they in turn derive from a collision: between the rhythmic and wailing strains of slave music and the lyrical and rebellious flavours of Anglo-Celtic folk songs - preserved in the Deep South and the Appalachians.
Put the two together and you got the blues, then ragtime, and all the rest of it. But you need both for the full effect.
Maybe it’s no coincidence that the best of pop music is still, very often, a combination of white and black: Michael Jackson, Led Zep, &c.
Re: South Carolina Love Gov. Mark Sanford
Intersting story about his wife, Jenny Sanford:
SC Governor’s career launched by wife he betrayed
http://www.thestate.com/statewire/story/839783.html
Now that’s not exactly the kind of headline the average governor would care to see in his state capital newspaper.
Story makes clear ther Jenny Sanford is the brains of the outfit. She’s a power tool heiress (interesting, Bill Clinton’s Canuck squeeze or more likely ex-squeeze is a auto parts heiress) which is a BIG help to an up-and-cumming politico. When they got hitched, she was a six-year vice president of mergers and acqusitions for Lazard Freres, while he was trying to break into Wall Street with little success. She’s been his chief political strategist and organizer, also part of his gubernatorial staff (no joke).
More and more this is staring to remind me of the saga of Uncle Earl Long. Who ended up ordering his own release from one state asylum after his wife had him committed to another one out-of-state. Her name was Miz Blanche. She was a tough lady. And personally guess that Mark Sanford is about half the man - and twice the nut - as old Uncle Earl.
411- I regularly drive up (it’s only a 30 minute drive as I live north of Atlanta) to Dahlonega in the foothills of the southern Appalachians on a Saturday in the summer. It’s a small Georgia town with an 1830s central square. It was the home of the first gold rush in the US - there are two mines still operating and you can go pan for gold there - and on the steps of the town hall there were first muttered the immortal words “There’s gold in them thar hills.” as they tried to dissuade people from leaving for California.
During the early summer they have the “bear on the square” festival - arts, crafts, jam making and wood working etc, plus many many pick up bluegrass bands (meaning musicians just bring their instrument and join in). During the summer they have the ‘Appalachian Jam’ every Saturday between 2 and 6pm where you can sit and listen to the pick up bluegrass. For an ex-pat Yorkshireman such as myself, it is fascinating. The players and many of the spectators obviously grew up on this whole subculture, whereas to me it is just a hint of a whole other way of life.
One of the reasons I love living in the deep South.
What is it with the Daily Rant and Sarah Brown PR?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1195768/Family-affair-Peaches-Pixie-Geldof-brave-Glastonbury-mud-Sarah-Brown-Naomi-Campbell-came-too.html
407. Tim B: what will Weird Al Jankovic do now that there will be no more MJ videos or songs to parody?
“Weird Al” Yankovic will, no doubt, carry on regardless, considering that of his collected works, only two are Michael Jackson parodies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_songs_by_“Weird_Al”_Yankovic#Songs
407 - OMG - hadn’t even thought of Weird Al. The poor guy!
on cuts - Heffer as you’d expect http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/5653287/Into-the-red-red-red-we-sink-with-Brown.html
415 - true enough. But what would the Weird Al songbook really be without “Eat It”?
Jacko’s last words: “Weird Al still lives!”
There is so much heresy on this forum!
SeanT = Heresybot!
Has anyone ever posted on here and wondered after it ‘what in the name of God above us was the point in me posting that? I mean, seriously, I spend about 16 seconds of my life doing that. What is the POINT in it all?!’
Just me?!
About 20 years ago, when Michael Jackson was in the news one day for some reason or other to do with drugs or ill-health, I commented that I thought he would probably be dead within 10 years. When I heard of his death, I wasn’t surprised except that it was a decade later than I had originally expected.
Yesterday I was thinking of him as the late-20th-Century version of Mozart - and as important and influential as Mozart was in influencing the development of musical and dancing styles.
Today I have been thinking of him as being to my generation what Elvis Presley was to the previous generation. I suddenly realised: this is what Elvis’s death must have been like. I was 9 when Elvis dies, but I don’t remember anything about him or his death directly - only in retrospect as a historical figure.
422. P.S. ……and the third paragraph feels more profound than the second.
Who in the current generation of musicians will be the next Elvis/MJ, a legend when they die?
422 Except that Elvis was a much bigger star and died when much younger, i.e. 42 years.
424 Difficult to think of anyone who comes close. Macca’s demise would be big news.
426. Dylan’s getting up there in age isn’t he.
In the current generation, Eminem?
424. Robbie Williams?
Morrissey’s death will have a deep but limited impact. (I suspect it will be disproportionate among people who read blogs like this).
As for the likes of Dylan/Macca/Madonna it depends on how old they are when they finally die. A 99-year-old Madge snuffing it would not be a great story.
A 99-year-old Shane McGowan, on the other hand, would be a cause of wonder.
Kurt Cobain, already RIP.
Macca’s passing will be akin to Bob Hope’s. And hopefully even a longer time in coming.
Dylan’s appeal was much more elite, less mass. But he’s definitely touched a chord with the mass audience from time to time, so he’s definitely on the radar screen. Just not as must personal impact for most people.
425 - Elvis a “much bigger” star than Jackson? In some senses perhaps. But not in others, top album sale ever for example.
Also, not that much diff between 42 and 50. Also little indication that Presley would have spent the missing 8-year interval more productively than Jacko did (not).
Of course, first there was Elvis, then Michael. Nothing will ever change Preley’s precidence.
Michael Jackson and Wagner? There’s no comparison. Michael Jackson is a far superior artist.
I find myself agreeing with SeanT, which is always terrifying. What Michael Jackson may or may not have done with young boys is completely irrelevant to the question of whether Off The Wall and Thriller are two of the greatest albums of all time (they are).
If tim is serious about betting on the Lib Dems in Eastbourne, he should note that he can get 19/10 with Victor Chandler on that. I think tim’s logic is faulty but that his bet might not be.
just a quick word on scotland, albeit off topic a wee bit.
in the latest 2 by elections, snp vote was almost twice that of labour in inverclyde, in the west, with labour vote dropping to 23% in a scottish heartland and the snp up to 42% from under 30, a 13% swing on 2007, which was already huge for the snp.
in the other one in angus the snp got 69% of the primary vote, although labour self destructed and messed up putting a legal candidate forward. even so, those sort of figures suggest that by FPTP the snp will pick up the majority of seats at the next GE.
and labour wiped out except in a greater glasgow enclave.
having ruled for 50 years, with no real opposition, how the mighty have fallen.
i can see a mad unionist panic in an attempt to head off an snp majority. the argument that it was westminster seats that counted to justify independence was used by labour and tories when snp had 30% of the vote in the mid 70’s, i expect that rationale to change now that the snp have shown that on occasions they can leave the others with 30% combined!
cameron’s comment that tories should have supported devolution should be seen in that light. in 1997 scotland spoke as the tories post thatcher stood as an anti devolution centralist party and won diddly squat in terms of seats.
Just watched “Washington Week in Review” and one of the things panel discussed was view inside Beltway that “Obama can’t blame Bush any more” in dealing with health care and a whole host of other issues domestic and foreign.
Now I can remember hearing Tony Blair saying a virtually every PMQ while he was PM, that the issue was Tory misrule pre-1997. And thinking sometime after the dawn of the new millenium that this argument was a total crock. Whereas apparently it was still working on Brits. Which it was until fairly recently.
Another topic was Mark Sanford.
Myself and lots of other people are more positive about the Love Gov as a person than we thought we’d ever be, cause it’s clear that he followed his heart to Argentina.
Which is well and good. One can see in hindsight that his marriage has been rocky for awhile. One can also see that his wife - a moderately wealthy woman who’s been his campaign manager and defacto staff member - has been the wagonmaster of the outfit, and still see that the affair has been devasting for her.
So there’s a lot of sympathy for Sanford, across party lines, on personal grounds.
Problem isn’t the sincerity. It’s the hypocracy.
The big items where Sanford flunks the smell test are:
1. Demanding that Bill Clinton resign the Presidency, and Bill Livingston forgo becoming Speaker of the US House, in both instances on grounds that adulterous affairs had destroyed their moral authority.
2. Using and diverting state resources in order to meeting (and perhaps contact) his mistress while ostensibly on official state business.
3. Misleading or outright lying to his staff, his protection unit, other elected officials and the citizens of South Carolina about his activities and whereabouts, in order to conceal his infidelity and diversion of state resources.
4. Consumating and elaborating the affair at the very time he was meeting with John McCain to discuss the possiblity that he might run for Vice President of the United States
Just no way to square that particular circle.
Now you might say, wasn’t Bill Clinton just as bad or worse. Personally I’d agree that’s true. BUT politically the difference was, Bill Clinton had plenty of friends, in DC and the Congress, and out in the country. Including some who were for him because Ken Starr and the Vast Rightwing Conspiracy were clearly out for his hide.
But that’s not the political situation with Gov. Sanford. As was case with Elliot Spitzer in New York, the Love Gov has spent his governorship burning bridges and burning turf with former and potential political allies in the state capital and across the state. Plus he’s always been sanctimonious and uncompromising, which may win you votes but isn’t going to make you popular within the establishment. In Columbia the Democrats don’t like him, and neither do most Republicans. He’s pretty well reduced to his personal prayer circle . . . and even some of them are heading for the exit.
PLUS the woman scorned is neither standing by her man or going gentle into that good night. Instead, she’s launched a very savvy media campaign. Which does NOT mean that her reaction to the infidelity is insincere. Just that she has likely decided that the marriage is over, or leastways will not continue until hubby accedes to some very clear, binding terms. So she’s in the process of turning her impressive organizational and strategic skills - he’s always been the people person - to work, not for him, but for herself and especially (in her eyes) for her children.
So my guess is, he’s gone from Columbia by Memorial Day, perhaps divorced in say 18 months, and (depending on what’s shaking on the Rio de la Plata) dancing with a new tango partner during the 2012 Republican National Convention.
Tim will be rending his shirt:
“The Prime Minister’s plan to embarrass the Shadow Cabinet by forcing MPs to publish details of their second jobs looks set to backfire after it emerged that senior Labour MPs and former ministers are more reluctant to part with their outside earnings.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-squirm-as-the-spotlight-turns-on-second-jobs-1721546.html
On last (for now) thought on Mark Sanford.
His case is very similar in some respects to that of John Edwards. And as with Elizabeth Edwards, it’s the woman scorned who is making the running.
The affair plus woman scorned and scorning in return, means that neither Edwards nor Sanford (and you can add John Ensign) will qualify as presidential timber. Not now, not ever.
Which is of course just one more argument against Newt Gingrich, who is essentially in the same boat just the public has forgotten the details. BUT they will surely be reminded if Newt starts to look truly viable, which he’s not and never will be IMHO no matter how he huffs and puffs and impresses as the thinking man’s Rush Limbaugh.
Speaking of radio blowhards, note that Rush has come up with theory that Obama set up Ensign to bite his own big weenie. AND now that nut that Jackie Smith banned from Britain (a stupid and tyrannical thing to do) is saying that Obama set up both Ensign and Sanford!
Of course it’s true that Rahm Emanuel did suggest that Mark Sanford might want to take a leaf out of his own bosses playbook . . . and smoke a cigarette.
350. Good day to bury bad news?