So now it’s down to six?
June 22nd, 2009
Is it going to be Bercow after all?
On the previous thread someone picked up this from the Guardian - “ To win, someone is going to have to get 298 votes. Bercow is well ahead of young, but even with all the Beckett votes and all the Dhanda votes he only gets up to 279 votes. Can he get another 20-odd votes from Beith? It could turn out to be very, very close.”
My guess is that Young will attract the “anybody but Bercow” vote and the big question is how much of Beckett’s and Beith’s support will get behind him. We can assume that most of the supporters of the other Tory contenders will get behind Young.
In the betting Bercow is the worthy odds on favourite but there is still a contest out there.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First?
firstish?
The graphic does look like an image from The Lipstick Murders…!!
Danger for Bercow is that in 1st round the bercow vote was designed to get rid of beckett
40 MPs did not vote. They cant be all at home giving their gardener his instructions for the week. With some of them plus Beith’s and Beckett’s votes, Bercow is home
He should be about 1.02 on Betfair
5, assuming the Lib Dems decide not to rebel from the Labour whip.
How are we going to cope with the come down after this vote-fest?
Has Martin resigned his seat today?
5 - The votes in the first round are not necessarily a reflection of the votes in the second.
Someone was Me.
5 - Indeed - I think that those 40 could be critical… who are they, where are they, and what are they planning to do next? Could be people looking to vote in the second round to give a percieved ‘momentum’ to one candidate or another?
Thunderstorm, be back on later
Some of the missing MP’s will be sitting out waiting for the business end.
9-(cont) You can thank me later, Mike
“5.41pm: The Commons division bell is going. That means they’ve printed the next ballot paper and that voting is open. MPs have half an hour in which to vote and then it’ll take another hour to count the papers. So we should get the next result at about 7.10pm.”
7 - Yes he has.
From the Guardian again:
“5.47pm: Ed Vaizey, the Tory MP, is predicting on his blog that Sir George Young will win.”
Has Stephen Pound won this for Bercow by turning soft Labour support off Young (who he supported) with the spin about Beckett being whipped for (which I never believed and has now been clearly falsified)?
Perhaps they couldn’t find which lobby to go into.
13 - I know the commons authorities have shown there incompetance recently - but an hour to count 600 votes into 6? How?
4 - Or Bercow keeps his 179, adds Beckett’s 74, Dhanda’s 26 and the 60 that havent voted before and its a done deal, no other votes needed.
Its definatly between Young and Bercow. I think its going to be tight, but Youngs still in with a chance here, IMO.
Pehaps its FU to the whips?
Why does the Speaker have to be chosen from the body of MPs?
It seems outrageous that the Speaker’s constituents have nobody to represent them. If Bercow gets it, at his age, the good folk of Buckingham might not have an MP for the next 30 years. (But as I dislike him enormously, I hope he does get in and an independent Tory stands against him at the GE and beats him…)
Surely it’s time to adopt a 21st century approach and have a non-MP to chair proceedings? It’s hardly rocket science, is it?
334 (Plato, previous thread). Why do people keep asking me what my point is today? My point is that Bercow is posh - I thought that had become fairly clear! The hilarious thing is that I initially made that point simply to defend him against the idea that he had been appallingly cruel to a fellow posh Tory!
However, to be compared to Tim is, indeed, a thrill.
19. I dount the other votes and non votes will split that evenly. A lot of Becketts support in particular may be more inclined to go over to Young.
22 - Why not have a PM from outside the body parliament, and also the cabinet.. the list goes on.
7 - “The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed the Right Honourable Michael John Martin to be Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.” - HM Treasury website.
22 - If it was an unelected outsider, by what right would they cast a casting-vote as a tie breaker ?
Bercow has said he will leave at the end of the next Parliament but one - i.e. after about 9 years.
I wonder if there might only be three ballots. On the figures I think it likely that previous votes of Widdy, Beith, Hazelhurst and Beckett might either fail to grow significantly or even decline and thus effectively leave the field to Young and Bercow.
Not too sure. I’ve got this one wrong so far. The colonic irrigation operation in my ARSE needs bringing forward.
I’ll be off shortly, but when young JackW comes in, will somebody ask him for me just hom much he had on Becket at 1/3?
Cheers.
16. I thought the BBC were being nakedly partial by running Pound’s spin this morning. Looks like the black arts are going to win the day again. A bad day if Bercow gets in as a result of these political shenanigans.
Anyone noticed Jack W is keeping a pretty low profile at the moment?
What happened to the Ladbrokes “number of rounds of voting” market?
I find it hard to believe that after round 2 any candidates are going to get less than 32 votes.
I am extremely surprised Widdecombe didn’t withdraw from the race. But if they all remain stubborn it could be a very long night with 4 or 5 rounds.
I wonder what happens if it gets to the final 2 and it’s exactly 50-50
Young v Bercow. I believe it’s too close to call at this stage. Bercow is a polarising figure and I do not believe these magical 40 abstainers would vote en masse for him at a later stage, as Apoplexy suggests - I imagine that if he’s going to get second preferences at all it will be from Beckett mainly.
I imagine the Widdy/Hazelhurst/Shepherd/Cormack votes will transfer fairly easily to Young. Beith could indeed be the key to this race.
FPT, lots of people in upper middle class occupations will sound “posh” simply because they’ve been to university, and are articulate. But I don’t think that makes them “posh”.
MPs, in particular, are prone to sounding like Sir Tufton Bufton, after several years, whatever their background.
30. PtP. Snap!
29. Jack W. Talk of the devil. Deckchair duties for you!
34 - Vote again..
22 Remember a previous MP for Buckingham……Robert Maxwell(labour) no less-quite popular with his constituents I’m told.
It is a 2 mile hurdle race Bercow is about 20 lengths ahead with only the run in to go. There are no more hurdles (aka speeches*) to jump.
*I wonder if the speeches cost Beckett 40 votes.
26- Is that a real job or just an honorific? Does everybody in the UK eventually become a knight or some such?
22. There are conventions governing that iirc. From memory it’s taken over by a neighbour (preferably of the same party) and cases get special attention/fast tracked to lighten the load.
26
Its one of a couple of positions which are specifically for MPs who are standing down.
33 - I went for 1 or 2 at big prices and am disappointed [though not altogether surprised] in the stubbornness of some of them! I was hoping for a situation in which one candidate (most likely Beckett or Bercow) got to 45%ish in either round and everyone else withdrew.
Calling JackW! Calling JackW! Come in Jack!
sorry, my 43 was directed at S&S at 41
It impresses the colonials S and S!
40. Lets see. I don’t think this is a done deal at all for Bercow.
41 - It is one of the paid offices of the crown which means you are excluded from sitting in the House of Commons. You cannot resign.
I just got 30s on Beckett pulling through….
29 Evening, Jack.
Perhaps you might let the surgeon know that I am very happy to assist with your colonic irrigation.
30/32 stjohn/PtP. See end of last thread and post 29.
I don’t do low profile !!
Can’t wait for tim’s reaction if Old Etonian Sir George Samuel Knatchbull Young, 6th Baronet gets in.
Unless he has heart attack this evening or there is a stewards, I cant see why the bookies aren’t paying out!
I suspect quite a few Beckett votes will go to Sir George.
Looks close between Bercow and Young.
41 - It’s an honorific. MPs are not allowed to resign their seats, but they become disqualified if tehy are appointed to “an office of profit under the Crown” (to avoid MPs being bribed by the Crown, originally). So if an MP wants to leave the House, he has to tip the wink to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who will appoint him to be the “Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead”, or the “Crown Steward and Bailiff of the three Chiltern Hundreds of Stoke, Desborough and Burnham”, which are archaic offices with no duties, that are maintained solely for this purpose.
Dontcha just wish you Americans had a constitution as cool as ours…
From the Guardian again
“6.01pm: I’ve done a bit more number crunching. There are 63 votes now up for grabs. If the Lord/Cormack/Shepherd votes are Tory/traditionalist votes, then Sir George Young should get many of them. If the Dhanda votes are modernising votes, then many of them should go to Bercow. A colleague who has been taking soundings in the lobby downstairs suggests that Haselhurst and Widdecombe could see their vote fall in the next round, as their supporters rally behind Young as the leading Conservative.”
Bercow could be the Portillo, Davis of this election. He tops the first ballot amongst staunch supporters, then everyone gangs up on him and it is all downhill from there…
Do you get to wear your Nurses uniform for that Peter?
29 We’ll be more forgiving than the Duke of Cumberland. TBH I think your error was not to factor in that MP’s will act quite differently to what they say they will do if it is a secret ballot. Maybe you should have remembered numerous Tory Leadership elections.
I’m hoping it will be Margaret Beckett and Mike knows why
52 Pleased to hear it, Jack.
Now, where are those rubber gloves….?
59 I’ll hire a Nazi one specially for that, Icarus.
59 icarus. You bet he does !!
According to Morus’s twitter feed, Dhanda reckons he “lost the vote but won the argument”…
Clearly our glorious leader isn’t the only Labour MP who’s away with the fairies…
So Young will eventually pick up votes from Lord, Shepherd, Cormack, Hazelhurst and Widdecome.
Bercow will probably pick up votes from Danda.
Beith’s support will split between Bercow and Young. Mainly Bercow probably, but the older Lib-Dems like Ming could support Young, I’d have thought.
Becketts support might go to Young in the main IMO.
The 40 others are an unknown, I have no idea what will happen with them.
If it takes these Jokers-In-Tights a whole hour to count 600 ballots, how long would they keep us waiting for a result in a Parliamentary consituency?
(about 11 working days - or five parliamentary weeks, I calculate)
We could see changes in the totals in this round, many MPs will have felt honour-bound to vote for a candidate to whom they have given assurances, but they may feel released from that now.
I can’t see anyone stopping Bercow - unlike Beckett, he clearly ran a very effective campaign. Startling how few votes she managed to garner from Labour’s 345 MPs.
Labour want Bercow, end of.
40. Sixty seven votes isn’t that much ground to make up for Young when you consider that candidates like Widdecombe, Hazelhurst, Cormack, Lord, Shepherd - even Beckett - still have votes to transfer.
I see this being won by 10-20 votes either way. Knife-edge. As I said above, you either want Bercow or you don’t. If you want him, you’ll probably have him as a first preference. If you don’t want him, you’ll be minded to consider others to stop him.
68 - Let’s hope so, that is where the money can be made!
Why can’t these wankers install an electronic voting system and get the job done in five minutes?
61
Marf, You havent spent hours on a cartoon have you …
I agree we don’t want an etonian as speaker given the likely Tory frontbench next year.
So c’mon Jack, tell us all how much you about to lose?
69. Again - people are being too party minded! Labour in this election are not a ‘collective’! If they were Beckett and Dhanda would have got more votes - it is clear that Labour MPs supported a whole host of candidates across the spectrum in the first ballot.
65 JohnKellett
Dhanda did well. He might get on TV, sounding good for his constituents (which was obviously his aim). The more telling tweet by Morus, is, I think, this one:
Anyone know what the feeling is among Lib Dem MPs about who they’d lean towards between Young and Bercow?
Hopefully we’ll be down to 3 candidates after round two. Anyone who has gone backwards or who has <20% of the votes cast should quit.
74 - I think Jack mentioned 10 grand and that Mrs W is about to become an auld slapper
65 Dhanda reckons he “lost the vote but won the argument”…
You’ll be hearing a lot more of that down the Job Centre next May…
73. Damn right. Where are the Harrovians in this contest?
“6.11pm: According to PoliticsHome, Pamjit Dhanda told Sky that he was “10 years ahead” of his time. Dhanda’s now voting for Beith.”
69. Peter. How is your book looking? I still have a decent win if Young gets it and make a very small profit if Bercow gets it.
If Bercow does get it, it won’t be an honorific, merely horrific.
I’m staggered, having got to know Bercow better over the last few days, that MPs could very easily appoint this pompous man to oversee H of C proceedings for the next nine years.
54- That’s very curious indeed! Did David Davis have to be appointed to some position or other when he resigned to stand in his own by-election?
82 Isnt that what they used to say about Trevor Brooking?
76 “Bercow shmoozing the terrace led by, i think, elliot morley.”
That it is beyond parody if true.
74 Galloglass. FPT 300 - “I’m around £10K down !! …. about to send Mrs Jack W to Kings Cross for “work experience” !! …. anybody got Wayne Rooney’s telephone number ??
Might pull some back …. but it’s an “ouch event” for me !!
81 - The brand was permanently soiled by Mark Thatcher.
84 - Yep, its the only way out.
Gaz previous thread
This is the first time in my life that I have lived in a marginal constituency. Many voters live where their MP is a life sentence - and we have seen where that leads. Get the careerists out and bring in the butchers, the bakers and the candlestick makers; we need people who are connected to the experiences of ordinary people. Our “Elections’ don’t seem to have achieved that in recent time. Name a proper job done by Brown, Cameron or Clegg.
How long does it take to count 600 votes? A team of boy scouts could do it in about five minutes, I’d have thought.
84 - Yes, he was appointed to office of profit (can’t remember which one) and then immediately resigned the office so that he was eligible to stand again as an MP. As normally you just hold the office until the next person needs it, it was one of the very few times that the office was ‘vacant’.
82. Goodness. Dhanda needs to contain his ego if he wants to advance further..
(Though, considering Bercow, perhaps not…)
I was impressed by Dhanda but he put together an altogether very political pitch for the Speaker’s chair - talking about diversity, devolving power, engagement, etc. It sounded like a frontbencher speaking rather than an impartial chairman.
I think maybe his talents lie more in Labour renewal than Commons procedure.
73.We don’t want someone with brown eyes to be Speaker, we don’t want someone who supports random football team to be Speaker??
Why not just look at the record and character of the man or woman. Churchill the toff built far more homes for working people than Brown the non-toff for example.
83 StJohn
Bercow wins me £250, Young loses £200. I’ll lay off a bit but only at the right price. I suspect Bercow has it.
The ‘PB narrative’ seems to have been misleading. From the posts on here, you’d have thought Bercow was unelectable. What did he get in the PB poll - 5%? Hmmmm….seems not too many PBers had votes in this election.
At least one transfer to Bercow as per twitterfall:
DavidLammyMP disappointed that Parliament didn’t back radical change by supporting Parmjit, now backing Bercow who will kick start reform
84 - Yup, DD was Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds for a small part of the 18th of June 2008, before resigning the post to fight his by-election. So the Chiltern Hundreds went completely un-stewarded for the best part of a year. It was carnage.
Hmmm… but despite the tortuous voting process, slow printing of ballot papers, slower counting of ballots, given that the betting is showing this as a two-horse race, then we could have a pseudo-result shortly after 7, as two main candidates have firm numbers and a very good idea of ’second preferences’ who would vote for either of the 2.
Or not…
76: I was with Morus on the Terrace - nice to see him! - but I’m certain it wasn’t Elliot Morley: he’s off ill and has been for several weeks.
numbertwelve is right that you simply can’t predict the votes by party affiliation - people are making very individual judgments, going back to things like “I worked with X in committee and he was very sensible”. On reflection I think Young may be the narrow favourite now: he’ll certainly look a lot stronger after the next ballot, and I’d guess will reduce Bercow’s lead to under 40, with Widdicombe (44) Haselhurst (66) still to drop, as well as Beith (55) and Beckett (74).
93. diversity = brutal self interest
97 - I assume he remained in the post until someone else took it.
Or down to two?
http://oldrightie.blogspot.com/2009/06/i-want-beckett-or-bercow-says-jimmy.html
87. Jack, backing an old nag very rarely has a happy outcome!
83 stjohn - my £600 would-be profit on Beckett is clearly down the toilet and I’ve evened things up between Bercow and Youg, winning circa £110 in either event. Not bad, but not what might have been. The week’s holiday in a pleasant Cornish cottage has disappeared over the last hour. What would £110 buy….. a dirty weekend at Butlins in Skeggy, I would imagine, if you’re lucky.
89/92/97- Thanks all, what a bizarre and interesting twist of political kabuki.
103. The EU are on to him though, he will have to promise not to eat his horses in future…
103 Galloglass. Oh I don’t know …. I’ve been with Mrs Jack W for yonks !!
90. “Name a proper job done by Brown, Cameron or Clegg.”
I don’t think it’s really a recent phenomenon Malcolm. Off the top of my head, I can’t think of many Prime Ministers who’ve had a serious career pre-politics, by which I mean something they stuck with for decades and made a decent fist of. Wellington is one example I suppose, but possibly not an encouraging precedent
93 – I wasn’t at all impressed – he’s arrogant, racist and sexist, and has a very nasty chip on his shoulder. I think his talents lie roughly where his father spent his career.
“that MPs could very easily appoint this pompous man to oversee H of C proceedings for the next nine years.”
It’s an F.U. to the public, nothing less. It shows that they don’t care and are prepared to be even more hated.
104. You can hire out my front room if you want for £110!
I will even make it ensuite by getting a metal bucket for an extra £50!
No food thrown in though!
I’ve not really bet in this race, but I did just take the opportunity to wander down to my local William Hills to pick up my £450 winnings from Martin resigning
104 PfP
Hope you factored this into your sums:
Ann Widdecombe is one of the six who will be on the second ballot, so peter from putney owes me ten pounds sterling. Huzzah!!
(From Morus’ twitter.)
108. John Major did banking!
101 - Not according to wikipedia - it says he resigned it almost immediately.
Tim will now be working hard on all the variations of smears if Young gets it…..
” you’d have thought Bercow was unelectable. ”
Not unelectable but a signal to how much parliament hasn’t understood what deep trouble they are in and that they wish to stay in the gutter.
115 - Indeed - if he had not, then he would have been ineligible to stand in the by-election (which would have somewhat defeated the point
)
I was very impressed by Parmjit Dhanda’s speech, except that he seemed to be campaigning for the wrong job - some sort of external advocate or diplomat rather than an internal reformer. I think I would have voted for Cormack in the first round, but Young in the next one. Haselhurst’s speech was brisk and businesslike, but I don’t like him because he’s too grumpy. I was surprised that all six stayed in the second round without any of them withdrawing.
115 - I am sure HM ensured it was well steward-ed!
116 - Not really.
After the next election I want to see a federal Britain, with Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish, and Etonian Parliaments.
UKPaul - I think Bercow will be seen as an outsider, and therefore a good thing, because all the other candidates with a realistic chance were all old-stagers. I think you are reading it wrong
121 - What with Eton being the British equivalent of DC?
117 Well, UK Paul, I don’t know the guy, but you cannot say he has proved unelectable.
2nd round prediction:
1.Bercow 227
2.Young 192
3.Beckett 54
4.Haselhurst 52
5.Beith 42
6.Widdecombe 26
85 MTF “Isnt that what they used to say about Trevor Brooking?”
It used to be said of Martin Peters.
However, it probably would have been more accurate to describe Trevor as 10 years ahead of his time, rather than Martin.
Both fine players, though.
118. Not so - the thing which disqualifies someone from being an MP is being appointed to the Stewardship, not holding it.
113 I’m afraid Morus’ memory is failing him - the bet was on Cormack surviving into the second round - it is HE who owes ME the tenner!
121 - tim
Here’s the truth about the Conservatives’ new European partners.
Sudden shift to Bercow on the markets - now 8/13 vs 5/4
Bercow 1.6, might as well call it now, bit of a let down.
125 I have a sneaky feeling Widdy may beat Beith in the next round…
It’s a good way for many of the 60-odd who voted for an ex-candidate to hide their true intentions for now. Beith’s second preference votes are the great unknowns…
If anyone fancies backing Bercow theres £20k availible at 1.5 on betfair
131. I maintain it’s on a knife edge. I’m not sure where this “Bercow walking it” is coming from: considering the challengers left, it’s all to play for.
132. I think Beith will hold onto LibDem support, whereas Widdecombe supporters have options.
Evening all, been out all day. Grr. Just noticed that had my MP not nominated Bercow he wouldn’t be in the contest. Aargh!
*** MISCHIEVOUS POST ALERT ***
Just think, if this election had been FPTP, then Bercow would have won by now!
117 Well, UK Paul, I don’t know the guy, but you cannot say he has proved unelectable.”
If you have to rely on people like Tom Watson and Balls then you may not be unelectable but you are lacking in any credibility.
I will say it again, I don’t think MPs are suicidal, they will back away from electing Bercow. I cannot see how enough people would forget why they got into this position.
They know the stakes are much higher than it being a bit of fun to annoy people.
There’s a fly buzzing round my home office - where’s President Obama when you need him!
*think the quick spray of Vapona has done for the little buzzer.
Well, I don’t have the best track record at predicting other people’s election results but I think you are all missing one essential point concerning the first round.
It was portrayed as either Bercow or Beckett. Beckett is now more or less out of it, surely some members voted for Bercow as the best change of avoiding Beckett. Therefore they can now safely move towards the candidate they really wanted, probably Sir George.
So I predict for the second round Younger up, Bercow about the same, everyone else down. That would probably make the third round a run off and in my view, probably wrong, Younger will win by a surprsingly large margin.
Tomorrow I eat my words.
Bercow has published his list of nominees. Only one Conservative on it:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jun/22/commons-speaker-contest-election-live
nominees=nominators doh!
Bollocks, bollocks and thrice bollocks! Can’t believe that I’ve been mislead by Stephen Pound of all people and am now looking at a small loss rather than a moderate profit after laying Widdicombe and Beckett on Betfair before the weekend. Grrr.
I’m struggling now to see how this is going to pan out. It should be a Bercow-Young shootout with Young closing the gap this round unless Beckett’s vote drops badly but it looks like it will be close through to the end and not much value with both front runners sat near evens. Much depends on where (and when) Beith’s votes go. He could outlast Beckett to finish third as I suspect his support is more solid than Beckett’s is.
133 Only Hazel Blears has that kind of cash available!
137 - If this was an STV election they would still be counting the first ballot!
“I think Bercow will be seen as an outsider”
Bercow has never been the real issue, it has been the support he has and the reasoning behind it.
For that reason, alone, he would cause as much of a problem as Martin. The idea was to atone for past mistakes, not repeat them.
138. As far as the wider public is concerned, I don’t it will be understood that Bercow is a mischievous or divisive choice. People will just note that Labour votes for a Conservative and think that’s evidence of bipartisanship. Maybe.
But perhaps you are thinking of how he’ll conduct himself once in the job?
138- Dr. Palmer has been boosting for Bercow here at PB. I don’t think he was kidding.
129 - Ver funny.
The Tories can’t bring themselves to even write the words Fatherland and Freedom, given its SS supporters and overtones.
Their MP was previously billed as Roberts Zile (For Fatherland and Freedom) but its been airbrushed.
Did anyone watch the Wales local news? There was a swarm of moths behind the woman presenting. eeks.
148 - But remember, Dr Palmer would ‘eat his own feet if the whips told him to’ according a major national newspaper!
149. Boring, repetitive and childish. Go and play with your toys and leave us alone.
Eric Joyce MP is tweeting “Bercow will win with 380 votes” - how would he know?
OT this is rather amusing
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1194752/Bulgaria-check-105-Bentleys-country-luxury-motor-car-choice-mafia-bosses.html?ITO=1490
149- What does that have to do with gay elephants?
I think this nonsense is making a very good case for this whole thing being done by AV next time…
We would have a new Speaker by now, and it would have been a genuine transfer of preferences. It’s too difficult to conduct an effective campaign of strategically transferring ballots when it’s all done at once.
Now we could face the spectre of Bercow, for example, “loaning” supporters to a fellow candidate in order to eliminate someone he doesn’t want to face in the final round.
But hey - MPs wanted the exhaustive ballot! They get what they deserve.
I’ve had a bit of GY at 2.7, - boredom reliever.
re 149. How do you think about Labour’s murder of tens of thousands of Iraqui citizens Tim? All illegal.
156 - To be honest I think they enjoy the process, bit boring to be over in one round!
150 - not shown up here but there was a man seen behing James Lansdale on BBCNew24 waving homemade cardboard placards that seem to show some slight displeasure of MP’s.
147 - I’m thinking about how it will be reported and. more importantly, how it will colour any business in the House. Martin was the story, Bercow would be the same. He is not a credible person to be speaker given how he has gained his support.
I hope that Laws, Gidley and Bruce reconsider their position after nominating him.
Knowing Tim’s fragile state of mind, when I read at 121 “After the next election I want to see a federal Britain, with Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish, and Etonian Parliaments.”, I initially misread it and thought that Tim was advocating that the UK takes over one of the Baltic Republics!
Looks like the LibDems could be the Kingmakers.
I’ve redone my maths. I’m a modest loser on Bercow and an even more modest winner on Young.
156 - fair point. Of course they enjoy it. In truth, so does everyone here. *proudly displays anorak*
159 - sorry, my last post should have referred to you, not 156
162 - I loved Hagues interview on the Polish Law and Justice Party just shown on Sky.
Apparently they’ve “changed” and are now in favour of equality.
Evening all
Having looked through all my antepost slips, it turns out Young would be win for me. Bercow would be a disaster. And I would lose…
OT, I just watched last night’s Top Gear. I was SHOCKED and HORRIFIED when the presenters started using ersatz German accents in a mocking fashion. And there was German guest. How insensitive. I expect them all to be sacked without delay!! Or not.
Tim, please just f*ck off!
You are ruining this excellent site!
164 The Futility Monster
I do think the dropout threshold should be set higher though. I reckon 60-odd votes would be a far healthier cutoff than 30-odd.
108. Of course if they did it for decades, they’d probably be too old to make it as a politician.
However, they could do a job for a few years. Remember this when you watch ice-cream coming smoothly out of a dispenser. The great Mrs T. worked on that one, as a graduate Chemist.
155 And they should be allowed to adopt as well.
I can’t understand these Tory bigots who are against inter-species homosexual adoption.
Perhaps these elephants are oppressed pacaderm Muslims so that makes it all right? They just need very capacious burkas to cover their trunks.
Labour MPs will want a speaker who is English so that they can hide their anglophobia - that’s why they want europhile Bercow.
Now just click the link to reveal the dark racist and anti-Englishness of New Labour’s devolution project - the deeper you dig - the greater the iceberg http://britologywatch.wordpress.com/category/anglophobia/
Bercow’s list of supporters are on the whole to the left of the Labour party. Not just left wing, but the left of the left wing.
Would Bercow be the first Speaker who is also a Jew?
Meanwhile, in a country where people have not given up the fight, Roger Cohen inside Iran is, yet again a NYT must read.
“Which brings me to the fight within. On Sunday, I saw Mehdi Hashemi Rafsanjani, the son of the establishment’s embittered éminence grise, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. He told me his father, who despises President Mahmoud Adhmadinejad, is fighting a furious rearguard action to have the election annulled by the Guardian Council, the 12-member oversight body that will pronounce this week on the election’s legality.
The ruling had seemed a formality, given Khamenei’s summary dismissal of a recount and the loyalist composition of the body, but the Council is now talking about irregularities in 50 cities and discrepancies that could affect 3 million votes. Out of a total of 40 million votes, that’s a significant number.”
The regime is fracturing, a few brave decisions and Khameini will be gone (and Ahmedinajad with him).
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/opinion/23iht-edcohen.html?pagewanted=2
On the speaker market, who will be the third candidate left in besides Bercow and Young?
Not Beckett.
158.It wasn’t Labour’s murder. The House of Commons voted for the war, British soldiers did not commit murder. What a repulsive thing to say.
168
Correction
Tim, please just f*ck off.. (pemanently)
You are ruining this excellent site!
Sorry, that was page two of the article - here’s page one -
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/opinion/23iht-edcohen.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
108 : MichaelK at 18:23
I can’t see why Wellington’s first career should be held as a bad example. He spent most of it beating the snot out off the French and finished it by ensuring that there was no dominant power in Europe. Sounds like the sort of chap we could with nowadays.
176. Who sold the war to the Commons as being about WMD and telling us that Cyprus would be wiped out in 15 minutes?
The Labour leadership.
158, et al,
Whenever you get too angry at vile tim, just keep in mind the one word “Loss”.
A little over a year ago, he had a Labour Mayor of London, a Labour PM and an ex-Labour Speaker.
He’s lost Ken to an Etonian tory. He’s going to see his party lose to an Etonian tory in a years time. He’s lost the argument over the European grouping of Conservative MEPs (I do wonder whether he has any idea of how obsessive and patently mendacious he comes over as). His heroes may well be exposed by the upcoming Iraq inquest.
And with any luck at all, he may see the Speaker replaced by an Etonian Tory.
When all’s said and done, when you see his bile strewn over these pages, smile inside. He only does it because he cares. And because he cares, it hurts him. With almost anyone else, I’d feel pity for him.
You mean Labour and the Conservatives Mike?
Your anti-Labour bias knows no limits.
176
Its extremely questionable as to whether the war was legal, whether the HOC voted for it or not.
177 - I do find myself using this site less and less
Tim’s postings are the main reason for this. It is hard to avoid his rambling stupidity
175 Nor Widdy, surely. Possibly Beith - will there even be a third candidate if both Young and Bercow each attract > one third of the votes?
If not Beckett then Beith - but I suspect B & Y will be very far ahead.
Its all very murky
158.
Pathetic, Mike. You’re as unbalanced on Iraq as Tim is on Eton.
186 Second round results must now be imminent!
177 - MTF.
Please post something of some interest on either the speakers market or the Tory Group.
Or go away.
The feed of Parliament has just come back up (away from the clock), results soon I suspect
Five Live has missed the second round result.
beckett 70 beith 46 bercow 221 haslehurst 57 widdecombe 30 young 174. John Mann spoils his ballot what a bloody idiot.
TIM’S ENLIGHTENMENT PROGRAM : LESSON 1
Since you obviously did not read the excellent link in the post by Millsy at 129, let me quote you some of the text from that link.
QUOTE:
Poland: Law and Justice
The party’s most prominent figure is the former Mayor of Warsaw and Minister for
Justice Lech Kaczynski, President of Poland since December 2005. ……
Having trained as a lawyer he became a leading Solidarity activist,
initially as a legal adviser, for which he was imprisoned by the Communist authorities under martial law as an ‘anti-socialist element’. He is noted for being the first Polish head
of state ever to attend a Jewish service in a Polish synagogue. Rabbi Mati Pawlak, ‘the first native Pole to serve as a rabbi in Poland since the fall of communism … credits
Kaczynski’s support for the Jewish community with creating a spirit of tolerance that has spread to other authorities nationwide.’
END-QUOTE
Doesn’t quite fit the bogey-man image that you try to portray, does it?
Of course it was Labour’s murders. Who else did it? Keith Chegwin? Blair prosecuted the cause, his media spinners sold the evidence, his ministers backed him up, Brown wrote the cheques, and a Labour parliament dominated by Labour MPs voted for Mass Killing, sorry, Shock and Awe.
Deal with it. Labour’s war, Labour’s corpses, Labour’s shame.
Widdy’s out.
170- If there’s one issue Labour needs to resolve before they’re thrown out of power, it’s the atrocious oppression of gay elephants by the Latvian SS.
176. The House of Commons voted for the war because the government lied to it, and to the country. Of course the soldiers are not guilty of murder, but the politicians who sent them into action - that’s another matter.
Is it too late to nominate Alan Williams?
Bercow 221 Young 174 hhmmmmmm
189 - if you stopped posting such pointless drivel Tim, people would stop having to take offence.
You are the main reason that I visit the site less than I used to
I know others feel the same
194. And Labour also rigged the 2000 Presidential election and installed George Bush
For the love of me why do you Tories obsess on Tim so - is an alternative paradigm so unsettling?
He is rarely rude about other people on the site - again unlike some Tories on here, which I personally find much more irritating and needlessley personal. He slags off your Party, you slag off him personally. Whose is the more proper behavoir?
If it comes down to the last 3 and Beckett is still in it then surely this will nulify the Labour majority by splitting the vote between her and Bercow. In that case Young would more than likely win.
Or is my logic faulty?
194 Yes, lets wipe the scum out at the next election for good. A Labour free England anyone?
I am now liking my GY 2.7, lay off at 2.2 if I can?
Sir George catching up up a bt on the second ballot?
4/6 Bercow v 11/10 Young 200/1 bar
It’s over, Bercow will pick up enough from Beckett + Beith
195- 199-
Can someone post the complete results?
I was sent to Iraq. Tony Bliar and his party sent me. Lefties just have to get over this uncomfortable fact.
Change in vote
+42 Bercow
+62 Young
-04 Beckett
-09 Haslehurst
-09 Beith
-14 Widdecombe
179. “I can’t see why Wellington’s first career should be held as a bad example.”
His first career was fine. I meant that his performance in his second (political) career was discouraging.
Although, with that said, he did inspire the phrase “Who who ministry” and made that great remark about the reformed Parliament - “I never saw so many shocking bad hats in my life”.
193 - Thats right.
they’ve changed.
Since Friday.
WARSAW, June 19, 2009 (LifeSiteNews.com) – Poland may soon consider passing a new law, similar to the one passed this week in neighboring Lithuania, that bans the media and schools from promoting adverse behaviors to the development of young people, including violence, suicide, and homosexuality.
MP Artur Górski, deputy head of the parliamentary commission on Polish-Lithuanian cooperation, has stated he intends to copy the Lithuanian law and introduce it before the nation’s parliament for passage.
“I have already asked for the translation of the Lithuanian law ‘on the protection of youth’ into Polish,” said Górski, a member of the major opposition party, Law and Justice. “This is a very interesting initiative and no doubt a very necessary one, especially now, when we face a more and more obvious expansion of gay activist circles.”
My intial reaction was 2/5 bercow, 7/4 young
Bercow 221 (+42)
Young 174 (+62)
Beckett 70 (-4)
Haslehurst 57 (-9)
Beith 46 (-9)
Widdy 30 (-14)
187 LondonStatto - this is Mike’s site, he can say what he likes.
The MPs who nominated Bercow:
Dai Davies
Charles Walker
Malcolm Bruce
Adam Price
Karen Buck
Sandra Gidley
Julie Morgan
Natascha Engel
Peter Kilfoyle
David Laws
Anne Begg
Pete Wishart
Sadiq Khan
Patricia Hewitt
Mark Durkan
599 voted this time; up from 594 last time.
In the second round, and looking at the two frontrunners, John Bercow picked up 42 transfers and George Young 62; assuming the other candidates all drop out, this leaves around 200 votes to play for; if they split roughly 40:60 Bercow:Young as before, that takes JB to 221+80 = 301, and GY to 174+120 = 294 - that’s how close it is!
Yes, I’m giving him away at 4/6, shadsy! Roll up, roll up…
beckett 70 beith 46 bercow 221
Young + widdecombe + haslehurst = 261
bercow + beith + beckett = 337
But I suspect Beith & Beckett support not as certain as Widdecombe + Haselhurst
39 need to switch from unsoundness to soundness
John Bercow can’t be all that bad,he has excellent taste in football clubs
“Outside of politics, John enjoys tennis, squash, swimming, reading and music, and he is a supporter of Arsenal F.C.
176. The House of Commons can no more vote for war, then it can vote to make the Sun rise. The power to declare war lies with the Executive and only the Executive, in this case the power is held by the Queen and exercised on her behalf by her Prime Minister.
Mike, like anybody, of course has opinions. What is remarkable is the degree of restraint he has shown, and continues to show, as people post views and material that he would rather not see here (I’m sure myself included, at least occasionally!).
211 Each of the other four have gone backwards and they should quit - I mean what’s the point?
201. No, that was the American Greens - something always worth pointing out if you want to wind up an eco-sandal wearer.
194. Sadly not quite. The Labour rebellion on the Iraq vote was huge and the Tories who voted for the war must bear some of the responsibility as well, mislead though they were.
On topic, still too close to call. SGY worth backing topside of 6/4? Beith’s votes are surely critical now?
223. Erm, not any more.
Think Bercow now has an edge. He picked up I think 42 votes on that ballot, which is more than that total Beckett drop (4) plus Dhanda, so he’s gained some of the votes from the three eliminated Tories - as numbertwelve and I said earlier, people aren’t voting in tribal blocs.
Bercow needs 79 to win. Beckett has 70, Beith has 46, and Bercow’s nominations include lots of LibDems. Some Beckett and Beith votes will go to Young, but equally Bercow will get some of the others. It looks tight but manageable.
Iraq is now history, the real problem is Iran.
Anyone standing down or do we go again with 5?
220. Aaron. Most of us aren’t allowed to bet with you!
225 - Why do minor parties *keep* standing at elections…?
219. Oh exciting. As your in the House, whats your got feeling about how this is going to to go SWMP?
PMQs Brown+Cameron+Bercow
Is sheer comedy value winning the day?
223. Technically, yes; practically, no. A government that went to war against parliament’s wishes would face an immediate vote of no confidence.
216. Plato.
Yes, and when he’s being ridiculous we have the right to call him on it.
The legality or otherwise of the Iraq war is irrelevant. If the war was wrong, we shouldn’t have done it whether it was legal or not. If it was right, we shouldn’t have permitted the French and Russians’ wanting to protect their financial interests with the Hussein regime to stop us.
Tory speaker it is
Bercow vs Young
Go Young!!!!!
So Young needs 39 from Beith / Beckett if Widdecombe and Haselhurst solid for Young.
All withdrawn except Bercow and Young.
Damn, looks like Bercow may edge it.
Another victory for tribal bullshit.
221 chris
Yes, I’d expect 100% transfer from Haslehurst to Young, plus nearly 100% from Widders to Young. But Beith/Beckett to Bercow will be less clear-cut, I’d say.
Close, but probably Bercow.
219 - Aye Steve - i can’t see that there’s any value on either party at this point. At least we now know that the last round is the last round, so it won’t be long to wait!
All except JB and GY now dropped out
2 candidates remain
too close to call now
Just Young and Bercow left.
Boothroyd “guesses” Bercow, now 4/5 vs 10/11 Young.
Time to buy a ceremonial box for Bercow to stand on.
223.Absolute tosh. Blair would have resigned had he not won the crucial vote. The Americans knew this and lead to Rumsfeld’s famous gaffe just before the conflict about America not needing British military support.
The Stop the Bercow Coalition will rule
Get some Young at 2.0+ whilst you can!
Laid Young. Now I’m guaranteed a mighty £2 profit. Behold my gambling prowess!
[Not too bad if you consider my initial stake was £2 on Beckett and Young].
Only three rounds !!
Phew …. pulled back some. Mrs Jack W only down Kings Cross three night a week !!
248, I hope you’re right but rather doubt it.
239 - But just think how much more fiercely we can attack parliament and MPs. If they think they get a lot of stick now, they ain’t seen nothing yet.
Good to see Alex Hilton on Sky saying something similar, we will have a farce or a tragedy.
One really has to hope that enough MPs see sense and that playing party games with the selection of the Speaker is not acceptable.
166. Heheh! The forces of euroscepticism outside the institution have now collected within it. They will blow apart your stitch-up consensus and there’s nothing you can do about it!
By the way, I still haven’t heard your reaction on Labour sharing a platform with terrorist supporters and 9/11 conspiracy theorists. Could you please now give it to us?
While you’re at it, can you also substantiate your claim that the Latvian SS, and not the Latvian police were responsible for Holocaust in that country?
252, Hilton the LabourHome chap? What’s he saying?
Why do I have a feeling that deep in the bunker the Prime Mentalist is currently busy rubbing his hands with glee as for once his plan looks like it will succeed and he will pull one over on the Tory Toffs!
253- Expecting politicians to take the politics out of politics? You’re asking a bit much.
Over £4000 available to back Bercow on Betfair at 1.9!
253 - Well the likelihood is that some independent right winger will stand against him and win in an election, would he be the shortest length speaker ever (no heightism intended)?
Suicidal stuff from an incredible number of MPs, they really don’t realise how much they are hated yet do they? You’d have thought that something might have got into their thick little skulls after the last couple of months wouldn’t you?
256. We managed it for years until New Labour came on the scene.
Does anyone think there has been some false flag voting for Bercow? That could lead to a transfer of votes to Young for the final round.
We will have at least one new Deputy Speaker, too. Either Haselhurst or Lord will have to be replaced by a Labour MP.
Dhanda for Deputy?
258, I just hope the press slam Bercow and Labour very hard if he scrapes to a toadying victory.
255. I know this is not an original observation, but Bercow becoming speaker is actually convenient for the Tories isn’t it? Silences him and guarantees he can’t defect.
235 - I disagree with your premise, but we’re on some common ground.
I don’t think the war was wrong whether it was ‘illegal’ or not - the rationale was made-up, the explanations were full of holes and the post war plan was non-existent.
That said, Saddam was an evil shit who gassed his own people and invaded Q8.
Our failure was to completely botch the post attack plan which was entirely preventable incompetence.
253. Do you expect the same Labour MPs who coronated Brown to see sense?
stjohn, looks like someone’s put up £5k @ 1.9 both sides, hoping to make a book no doubt…
There is a level on which I hope Bercow gets it. Labour deserve the flack.
But only if in the event of a win Cameron, let the ‘clean house’ vote again.
It would be more interesting now betting-wise if that £4K disappeared. Mind you it was £5K 5 minutes ago.
My entirely unscientific prediction - Young Win
Young 304
Bercow 294
Guido seems certain
Put Your Money on Bercow
Unless the LibDems en masse back Sir George Young, it is going to be Bercow. Labour will stick it to the Tories, there is no chance they will suffer an old Etonian Speaker and the prospect of an old Etonian PM. At least Guido will be a few hundred quid richer, if not happier…
263 he can’t defect now anyway - it would look like a Labour power grab gone wrong and the outed spy going home in disgrace.
Bercow is speaker or Tory backbencher until the next GE
235 Has the UK declared war since the Declaration of War against Japan? Korea was a UN police action, Malaya, Aden, Cyprus were Emergencies, the Falklands came close but we didn’t go to war against the State of Argentina. Kosovo & Yugoslavia were UN/NATO policing/peacekeeping actions as was Sierra Leone and Afghanistan.
Did we actually declare War against Iraq? Can’t recall the legal forms as laid down in Hague Convention actually occurring. Wasn’t it treated as enforcement of UN resolutions?
263 - That’s no qualification for speaker at this crucial time though.
I bet Nadine is sharpening her stiletto’s in anticipation for Bercows election.
Crikey, absolutely pouring with rain and has been for hours. Glad the thunder’s stopped though.
Looks like Labour are about to give Tory activists another reason to work even harder.
Interesting how many on here went to the point of essentially saying “either they vote for one of the similar Tory candidates that we like or it’s a stitch up”. Perhaps they simply have a different opinion of Bercow to you.
And the idea that the general public will know or care much about conspiracy theories on Bercow’s election is laughable.
276 - Cameron will vote for Bercow.
He doesn’t want an Etonian in the Chair.
Does the new Speaker get dragged to the Chair tonight? Or is that reserved for tomorrow?
I love the BBC coverage - talking about the “moderniser” Bercow and the Old Etonian Young.
That 1.9’s gone on bf…
It’s sunny where I am - amongst the righteous. Are you near Parliament?
Also, the site is working extremely well. Kudos to the management.
God I hope Bercow loses. And then falls in the Thames.
264. Our failure was to launch a war in response to no particular action from Saddam, causing both other states accused of “evil” to realise they might be attacked at any time by a neocon-led US unless they became nuclear armed. Our failure was to launch a second war when we had yet to finish off the first, taking our eyes dangerously off the ball and leading to the current situation in Pakistan. Our failure was to launch a war without a good reason in a way that massively added fuel to the fire of Muslim anger, and thus forcing us to miss the window of opportunity that existed in the Levant after Arafat’s death. Our failure was massively overstretching our armed forces in a way that left other rogue states around the world free to do what they wanted, knowing we had no spare capacity. Our failure was to taking out a strong enemy of Iran hemming its influence in the Arab world, and giving the Mullahs much greater ability to channel funds to its proxies in Palestine and Lebanon. Our failure was the Iraq war full stop.
My guess is that the Beith vote will go 26-20 to Young. For as well as being an attractive candidate to Lib Dems he’s also probably got a lot of old MPs voting for him and they will be more inclined to go for Young.
I also think that Young will pick up 10 - 15 of the Beckett votes.
Assuming that almost all of the rest goes to Young then Bercow probably just squeezes it. Young’s main hope is that the Beith split is better than 26 - 20.
I think with the two candidates left, it’s very hard to not see it as a partisan election. Given the partisan composition of the House, that probably determines the outcome.
Gary Gibbon on C4 thinks Young might edge it. Sadly I think he’s wrong.
Whoa, just got www2767838.politicalbetting.com
280- Bercow = hope and change.
Carswell now backing Bercow - dangerous to assume all Tories will go for Young…
282, no, I’m in Morley & Outwood, hopefully the future scene of Balls’ ultimate defeat.
277, not sure it’s that unfair. After all, many have said good things about Dhanda, and Shepherd and Young and Haselhurst. The only two that have gotten real stick are the official Labour party candidate Beckett and creepy Gollum suck-up Bercow.
re 278. That is the dumbest comment you have made all day. Cameron and Bercow hate each other.
277. Your comment would have some merit if it wasn’t for Labour party members making it quite clear why they would vote for Bercow during the past few weeks.
286 I think that just about sums it up.
285 If Young is to win he needs mass support from the Lib Dems. How do you think they see it.
277. Agree, it’s silly to talk about a “stitch-up” when people are just voting how they wish. However, it’s reasonable to say that if people are voting for a candidate primarily to annoy the other side, and not because they think he’ll do a good job, that’s … well … sub-optimal.
Then again, they may think Bercow would be a good speaker. Maybe they are right.
Think you’re right that the general public won’t much care, although that depends on how the media play it, of course.
224 Stars
Well put. Love your posts on British politics; it is so engaging to hear an innocent get so close to the heart of the matter.
If the transfers between rounds one and two are replicated exactly in the final round….
Bercow wins by 8 votes…..
Mike, shouldn’t we have a new thread for the final two?
292
Well Mike according to Tom Harris, they aint friendly!
http://www.tomharris.org.uk/2009/06/22/peeing-with-the-enemy/
298. Rod, given you passionately hate anybody younger than 60, would you be supporting Sir George now?
When is the result going to be announced?
Apparently Bercow can’t wait to hit the GMTV sofa. I can just imagine him losing votes for Tories everywhere. Cue more gleeful hand rubbing from Gordon.
277 - Either parliament moves past its attitude to partisan politics (Bercow elected to annoy others) or it doesn’t. The media will care and then so will the electorate.
The same happened because of financial corruption.
If they’ve forgotten that in a few short weeks then they will be made to suffer.
Mike Take a look at Tom Harris’s blog, it disappeared when I tried to post it but here is what Harris said…
P**ing with the enemy
Monday, June 22nd, 2009
A LABOUR colleague was in the toilet next to the chamber just before the first ballot, when he was joined by David Cameron in the adjacent urinal.
“David, I’m about to vote Tory for the very first time in my life,” said my friend jovially.
“John Bercow doesn’t count!” replied Cameron.
An awful lot of money is laying Bercow at steadily decreasing prices on BF……
Bercow is a disaster waiting to happen. MPs must have a death wish….
284. Iraq war may have been wrong, ill-judged, the case may have been ’sexed-up’ & the post-war plan planning dreadful, that is a matter of opinion, which in a democracy we have often debated.
The idea however that because China & Russia threaten to vote against us at the UN, that should make a good thing bad or a legal thing illegal is bizarre.
We are a sovereign nation, our freely elected Parliament voted for war, our troops did not commit murder.
Do we seriously want Speaker Bercow for twenty or thirty years?
306 For once we agree Rod. An old Etonian would be news for a day or so but if he did the job correctly and with dignity, it wouldn’t matter.
Bercow is all arrogance and conceit. Why would they put that in breeches and stick it front of house?
Stupid.
306. Agreed. Bercow is gonna be a media tart and a loose cannon. I fear we’ll see another consitutional crisis in the next Parliament….
306 - Twenty or thirty minutes is pushing it.
308 - He’s said he’ll only do it for 10 years.
Oh Lord, I feel sick.
It would be atrocious if the was a large No vote against Bercow in the “confirmatory” ballot. Perhaps MPs may yet draw back from the brink.
308.He wont’t last 20 months
305 - which means that an awful lot of money is backing Bercow at steadily decreasing prices on BF……
307. It is not the job of parliament to vote for war. The operational deployment of military personnel is by its very essence an Executive function.
It’s legality depends on whether or not you think international law is a pile of horse droppings, and the power to carry out acts of aggression are the preserve of a sovereign state.
307. I agree.
290 What link do you have Carsewell supporting Bercow?
This is his last blog post.
http://www.talkcarswell.com/show.aspx?id=806
Whatever the outcome, it’s been a great horse race.
260. Can someone tell me what “false flag voting” is?
According to Andrew Sparrow at the Graun, Beckett is voting for Young.
313, d’you mean after this contest is done there’s another on-the-record Parliamentary vote?
Remember, whoever you vote for, the bourgeoisie will always hold sway. The Establishment is going to rally round Sir George Young big time.
318 - He said so on the BBC
From the Guardian
“If Young gets all the Haselhurst votes, he gets to 231. If he gets all the Widdecombe votes too, he gets to 261. He would still need 39 votes.
Beckett and Beith between them have 116 votes. Young would need to get a third of them. But the assumption is that the Beckett votes are Labour votes and that many of the Lib Dem Beith votes (I assume they’re Lib Dem, but I might be wrong) will go to Bercow. And that’s not allowing for Bercow picking up some Widdecombe votes. It’s hard to imagine Bercow losing.
And yet I’m told that Beckett herself is voting for Young. And perhaps many of the Beckett/Beith voters are older MPs (Beckett became an MP in 1974, Beith in 1973) who would vote for Young (who also became an MP in 1974). Some colleagues think that I’m underestimating the extent to which many of the Beckett votes will go for Young. I still think it’ll probably be Bercow, but a Young victory isn’t inconceivable.”
313 RodCrosby
I doubt there will be a big “no” vote; it would seem petty.
But there could be a very large number of abstentions.
316. It doesn’t even depend on that. I strongly believe in international law, but there’s nothing in it that says individual states can not declare war.
320. I thought she would. She and Young seem to quite like each other.
318 - he was being interviewed on BBC News 24 a little while ago.
Come on Sir George! Slay the Goblin with your mighty sword.
329, that’s rather old-fashioned. A space cannon would be far more effective.
See, the only criticisms I’ve heard about Bercow have either been:
silly (Nadine Dorries complaining about his wife),
meaninglessly personal (’he sounds pompous’),
circular reasoning (he doesn’t have Tory support),
conspiracy theories (we saw how valid the stories of Becket being whipped for were)
or political (he’s not a proper Tory an odd requirement from those who want an apolitical speaker).
And this is an election for the anoraks. The general public isn’t going to care for conspiracy theories of a Tory being elected through a Labour stitch up. Runs against the oppositional ideas of the parties etc and once the elections over nothing to really keep the story running, it’ll disappear pretty quickly (the amount of power the role is imagined to have is exaggerated anyway).
“I doubt there will be a big “no” vote; it would seem petty.”
I don’t know; I can see plenty wishing to register their disgust.
Just to prove we have no shortage of nutcases here in NI!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8113757.stm
all the £ for Berc, I had better lay off whilst im still green
OT
Worth a read.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/06/boriss-sacked-deputy-the-blue-olive-connection.html
331. How thick do you think the public are?
324.Guardian are spot on, I said same thing some time ago :o)
331, you’ve missed off the primary reason why he’d fail. He wants the job too much. Remember the last chap who campaigned so earnestly for it? The fellow who was the first Speaker for 300 years to be ousted?
How can he claim to be impartial when he’s been sidling up to the PLP for years?
331 - The criticism is nothing to do with Bercow, he’s merely a pawn, it’s about how, not who.
If they carry on with the same old ‘how’ then there is going to be big trouble.
It will disappear at the next election because he is either likely to lose his seat or be replaced if he manages to win.
Where are the missing MPs. I know Brown doesn’t get a vote and SF aren’t there but how are the rest accounted for?
I really hope Young gets it. I also feel rather nauseous at the prospect of a Bercow Speakership.
Since the idiot Brown, the Tory boys around here have had everything going their own way. Now that a Tory boy is going to be Speaker why are so many of you so upset. Bercow is a typical Tory -former member of the Monday Club. George Young is probably the most liberal MP on the Tory side of the House. Fancy you Tory boys supporting a liberal against a former Monday Club member.
Illuminating and extremely amusing.
332. Either NOs or abstentions would be bad news.
In 2000, 289 failed to endorse Speaker Martin, crippling his tenure from day one…
This is surely a generational thing. The younger MPs are going for Bercow with the old ones going for Young - and I think that that’s how the split will go at this stage.
340.How many Monday club members do you know, given you think Mr Bercow is typical of them?
335. How would you explain to the apolitical man on the street why Bercow is wrong for it, without basing it on knowledge he wouldn’t know.
326. Article 51 of the UN charter. If you are not willing to abide by the UN charter then the concept of international law might as well be dead and buried.
344, he’s been kissing Labour’s arse for years to get it.
331- Correct.
Although some of the anti Abortion crowd hate him.
And some who hadn’t the guts to join him and vote against Section 28 (Thats Cameron is it Mike?)
As one of the 5% who voted Bercow, I’m feeling quite smug, my normal self of course.
I’ll be feeling even more smug at the end of the month, when Ghost of…..puts his fiver in the charity box!!
340 - So, all Tories should be supporting a Monday Club member, apart from the Tory who wasn’t in the Monday Club? How does that work…..
340. We’re supporting integrity against dirty tricks Malcolm. Bercow is a flakey, bumptious self-promoter. The last thing we need to restore trust in parliament. Don’t those things matter to you?
Bercow tightening on Betfair 1.51, Sir George on 2.64.
345. Yes, I would justify giong into Iraq without UN approval, as I would going into Bosnia. Similarly if the Russians had vetoed Britain in 1982 would you really be content with a fascist regime in charge of the British Falklands?
331 You’re being daft if you think the Beckett result proves that there was no attempt at whipping. What it shows is that if it was tried the secret ballot prevented its success.
GY 3.0, some serious flushing out going on.
335 - Runnymede, they voted Labour in 2001 and yet again in 2005 despite all the evidence of failure to reform the welfare state and public sector organisations, the incessant partisan nature of their appointments to quangos and other tenures within their grasp and the already excessive spending and waste. I’d say that proves the public/electorate are, on the whole, pretty thick.
344. Point out to them that Bercow claimed more personal expenses than any of the others (the max for six years) and belatedly paid back CGT. Then tell him that the main job of the Speaker will be to setup up the new expenses system. Given the furore that expenses has caused that should do it.
343 chris
A former colleague on the Council - and good friend, and my late cousin Bill, who was very active in the club and a lovely guy. I might have known many others but they were the only two who were prepared to admit it.
344 - thats the point.
The media is focusing on the differences between them
Young, 68 Eton Old style
Bercow,Young 4os reformer.
340 - Your analysis is well out of date, Bercow is liberal on virtually every social issue these days. Yes he still is conservative on some other issues, but his Monday club days are long behind, the idea so many Labour MP’s would support him if they weren’t is laughable.
264. Plato: I don’t think the war was wrong whether it was ‘illegal’ or not - the rationale was made-up, the explanations were full of holes and the post war plan was non-existent.
For the record, I make no judgements either way.
That said, Saddam was an evil shit who gassed his own people and invaded Q8.
Our failure was to completely botch the post attack plan which was entirely preventable incompetence.
Agreed entirely.
Aplogies if this has already been posted.
Revealing blog from Tom Harris MP:
“A Labour colleague was in the toilet next to the chamber just before the first ballot, when he was joined by David Cameron in the adjacent urinal.
“David, I’m about to vote Tory for the very first time in my life,” said my friend jovially.
“John Bercow doesn’t count!” replied Cameron.”
from conhome
352 Didn’t matter with the Falklands. Argentina invaded sovreign British territory, so action was justified under the UN Charter irrespective of any resolutions.
My view is that if Nadine Dorries is against something then it’s usually worth supporting - Martin Slater on C4 news reckons a 10-30 majority for Mr B. If it’s the top end that’s beyond marginal.
345. Article 51 is the right to defend yourself - it says nothing about the attack being illegal.
345. Resolution 1441 justified the war however and warned of serious consequences if Iraq continued to disregard UN Resolutions. Iraq was also failing to discharge its obligations under the 1991 ceasefire agreement.
Have to say this ias more interesting than I thought.
I took a punt on Bercow after Frank Field announced it was all a stitch up. Then after rumour, counter rumour, story after story I thought it had the look of the GOP vice president market so decided to sit tight and not get further involved.
At about 11 this morning a colleague asked me about the speaker election and I told him I’d probably done my money.
I may yet be proved wrong.
I wonder if there’ll be a recount?
When it comes down to it (from a strictly non-betting POV) I’d rather have the old boy in charge.
Bercow just looks too young to be sat in that chair. Not nearly enough gravitas. He’ll need to dye his hair grey if gets the job.
357.But what is your relationship to Mr Bercow given he his typical of someone in your family?
I love the old liberal, always have - seems a lovely guy.
Its just you Tory boys; you are so amazingly funny. I guess I’d feel the same about a Blears, Purnell or Charlie Clarke speakership - if I really cared, that is.
When are we going to put out of (or into) our misery?
Do we have a results ETA? Would 9pm be about right?
353. Perhaps I should have rephrased to say ‘that Becket was going to win from a Labour whipping projet’.
8.10pm IIRC.
352. The point is that the basis on which we sought UN (and UK Parliamentary) approval - the WMD - was false. Now, either Bush/Blair knew it was false (and hoped no-one would care in the euphoric aftermath of a quick victory and jubilant Iraqis hailing their liberators) or else they sincerely thought Saddam had WMD, had strong evidence pointing to that, and were simply and honestly wrong.
Surely it’s not hard to see why many people find the second hypothesis hard to take seriously?
If you’re saying that the non-existence of the WMD is unimportant as it was no more than a casus belli in the first place and it was “right” to depose Saddam, who was an evil bastard, that’s a tenable position. However, it’s not what the country, Parliament and the UN were told was happening. (And, though I say it’s “tenable”, I also think it’s an insane basis for a foreign policy.)
352. But i know international law is a pile of steaming manure, i dont pretend otherwise.
The right to take back the Falklands by force was not in doubt, the utterly ludicrous idea that such a course of action required UN permission is a straw argument.
The drafting of the article quite clearly allows for a state to act as it needs to in defence of an attack.
The invasion of Iraq was an act of aggression masquerading (by the British Government) as an act of defence. This was shown to be untrue, the legality depends on whether or not the PM made his decision in good faith or not, like all the decisions of the Executive.
One good thing to come out of this election is Tory posters on here complaining about membership of the racist Monday Club.
Own Goal.
ten past eight IIRC.
362.That is a matter of opinion! I agree the islands are British, the Argentinians reckon we invaded them, and were in dispute over them, and still are to this day.
Steady drip drip drip toward Bercow - now 4/9 v 17/10
“Its just you Tory boys;”
Like Young?
372. BBc’s John Sopel suggested 8.45pm
377 smear alert
On missing votes - Politics Home reports that the Council of Europe is meeting, with up to 36 MPs attending, and some Select Committee trips (PHome thinks 50 missing but I think its 40) .
384, I wonder if that’s a coincidence.
The whipping might have worked…until the speeches.
It is unacceptable for anyone to be away. They should vote for the speaker.
Re 377. Please desist Tim - this is getting very silly.
Morris Dancer - where is all this rain?
377. Good job the Monday Club isnt in the process of pushing through legislation that will allow in the private sector, and compel in the public sector that job applicants to be chosen on the basis of their race.
385 - Daniel Hannan willl presumably be posting that the EU Commissioners arranged it all.
389, Morley
No-one can know what the outcome is yet, so why is someone buying up all everything for Bercow? Value on Young methinks! Currently 3.35 on Betfair.
369 chris
The closest I get to having a relationship with Mr Bercow is that I laugh at his stupidity when I see him on TV. After all he’s a Tory boy.
Does his Jewishness enter into this at all?
Odds on Bercow far too short now @ 1.33 based purely on media speculation. I don’t think he’s well liked, Beckett is supporting Young, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him lose the final vote.
391 Smear alert
388. Can’t you put him on the naughty step again?
what happens if there is a tie?
342 I agree Mike. I think Sir George’s best chance now is that Young is old. So could pick up unexpected votes from those who don’t want a young whippersnapper.
394, you mean like when the Tories refused to make Disraeli or Howard leader? Nice smear though.
Tim needs a written spam warning.
Bercow 1.3BF, shame, ,shame.
Tim must go!
TOO CLOSE TO CALL ACCORDING TO SKY NEWS
While we’re waiting for th result I’d like to thank ScottP for pointing the 9/4 Any Tory market, and whoever the poster was who came on one night pointing to Bercow at 8/1 with Corals.
Will Beckett supporting Young sway any Beckett supporters?
I am a Young fan and a Bercow Blocker purely on the basis that Labour clearly prefer Bercow.
As has been proven repeatedly Labour are wrong about everything, every time.
Therefore it should be Young.
Shep or the Widdy would have been better - the Widdy being short of perfection solely on her ludicrous hunting standpoint.
Just a thought - I’ve got BBC Parliament on in the background and boy is it BORING.
I can’t imagine a less interesting life than listening to such turgid and badly read out speeches.
Why would anyone want to sit through this for days on end??
I wonder if the Noble Baroness Barker (Liberal Democrat) realises how many people are watching her speak on the problems of oral cancer? And all because we are waiting for the next show on the BBC Parliament channel.
394.So you don’t know Mr Bercow at all, you have no idea how typical he is of a Monday Club member, based on your knowledge of them which basically revolves around a favourite uncle..ok…
Who mentioned Mr Bercow was Jewish, why even raise that issue?
401. Well if Bercow wins it will no surprise - as I have said, you have to think about who the electorate are.
He is the perfect candidate to represent the arrogant, self-important and out of touch mediocrities that constitute the majority of today’s Commons.
Tony Benn speaking on BBC News with a guest behind him.
407 Life in the Lords tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow proceeds at this petty pace until the last syllable of recorded time.
312 “He’s said he’ll only do it for 10 years. Oh Lord, I feel sick.”
….and we believe him because…..?
IF he is elected his (ultimate) departure will make Speaker Martin look like a man of subtlety, timing and sophistication…..
400- Just like how Beckett’s poor showing could be attributable to misogynist attitudes in the Labour ranks.
397 You are not supposed to be allowed off the naughty step without saying ‘Sorry’.
Morris. All that thunder and lightening in Morley must be God’s judgement on Ball’s dirty work.
He backing Bercow.
The annoyance and agitation of europhiles, at Cammo fulfilling his promise to leave the EPP, is an edifying delight.
Even the famous Lib Dem trai1tor, Andrew Duff MEP, he of “the English must be defeated” has come out and complained.
I don’t get it. Surely these people should be happy that their political enemies, the Tories, have made a terrible strategic blunder, as they keep saying.
And yet they don’t seem happy. They seem irritated and angry.
How strange.
I predict that Young will win by a margin of 4 votes.
415, alas, we get a lot of rain here. Floods very close by in the last few years.
340 Young is a leftish (but very loyal) Conservative who is widely respected across the House.
Bercow is a creep (and very disloyal MP) who will be detested by almost half the House if he gets in.
417, if you’re right you can fire the first test subject from the space cannon.
409 The Monday Club, if not formally defunct, has virtually ceased to operate.
OT: CH4 Dispatches: gang rapes are almost entirely committed out by gangs of young black or mix raced men.
of 92 people convicted that they could research, 66 black 13 were white and 13 from other countries including afghanistan and iraq and libya.
Incidentally, when was the last time a new Speaker was appointed without being a deputy Speaker? That in itself is quite unusual isn’t it?
Peter Bottomley: “John Bercow was a special advisor to my wife”
Bercow advising Virginia Bottomley…how many union-sponsored Labour votes is this chap getting?????????
420 - MD, I think you’re missing a trick there. You could auction off the rights to do that and, if you were feeling altruistic, would probably be able to make a massive contribution towards the reduction in the national debt by donating the proceeds.
417. He would need 62.5% of transfers, as opposed to the 59.5% he got in the second round…
416
But SeanT, I thought you were a Europhile now
You see that Andrew Duff. He’s your friend he is. He’s your bestest buddy.
(Just a gentle dig from a stuck in the mud sceptic)
416. SeanT
For a more reasoned view of the Euro outcome
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2009/06/david-camerons-new-eu-group-is-catholic.html
416 Curious isn’t it?
Why do the Left cry wolf continually? The election of Boris Johnson was supposed to usher in a new era of reaction across London; the Conservatives were about to join a group of neo-Nazis in the EU Parliament.
Boris turns out to be a fairly wet Conservative, and the Conservatives’ allies are boringly mainstream.
427 - Or for memories of early 90s comedy.
“See that Andrew Duff. That’s you that is.”
Young tightening on Betfair - down to 2.6 from 3.35 a few mins ago.
about to poor down in London, how appropriate now that the little drip is about to win.
Shame, shame.
430
I had exactly the same thought in my head. Just didn’t phrase it quite right
Norman Lamb talking much sense on New24 - except he failed in the final analysis and voted Bercow.
new thread
* * * NEW THREAD * * *What’s going on? Where is the Result? I am not sure I can take much more dentistry…..
429 - the Conservatives’ allies are boringly mainstream.
Artur Gorski, a Freedon and Justice MP, described President Obama’s election last year as the “end of the civilisation of the white man”
Result should now be imminent!
427. Richard. Hello!
Going back to our previous debate (following my outing as Not Quite As Eurosceptic As Before), the reason I didn’t reply to your arguments was that I know you are, morally and philosophically, correct. Remember they used to be my arguments, too.
Eurosceptics are right. The EU is a travesty of what it could be - it is corrupt, absurd, grasping, mendacious and essentially undemocratic - as shown by the europhile responses to referendum reversals and, now, Cameron’s fulfilment of a promise. They would rather see a politician break a solemn promise than hinder European integration.
So, don’t worry, I still despise europhiles, especially the treacherous British variety, epitomised by Duff and Clegg and Kinnock and Mandelson. Et al.
However I have mixed my euroscepticism with pragmatism. Fact is, I fail to see any conditions under which we entirely leave. Our best bet is therefore to reform it (however difficult that appears, it’s easier than leaving). And the EU ideal still has great merit.
For this reason I totally applaud Cameron’s move today. Given that we are stuck with the EU we need a better EU. And the first step to a truly democratic and supportible EU must be the construction of a viable EU opposition, which opposes further integration.
It’s a paradox, of course. But true nonetheless. Europhiles are too dim and bigoted to see this truth.
Odds shortening on Bercow.
Icarus wins - well £2.06 on the speaker election!
All going on Harrison ’s flyer in the 8.50 at Chepstow! - currently 28-1 on Betfair (The sort of odds I like)