Labour in third place in final YouGov poll
June 3rd, 2009YouGov EURO ELECTION:
CON 26 LAB 16 LD 15 UKIP 18 GRN 10 BNP 5
But could the Lib Dems push them into fourth place?
The final YouGov poll for tomorrow’s election to the European parliament is out and has Labour at the lowest level it has recorded during the campaign - a bare 16%. These are figures based on those “certain to vote”.
If you include the “non-100% certains” a very different picture emerges. According to the Telegraph ” the Tory vote share jumps to 37 per cent, with Labour in second place on 21 per cent and the Lib Dems in third on 19 per cent. Ukip support drops to just 8 per cent, reflecting the party’s lack of “casual” sympathisers.
So much in this election depends on turnout that it is extremely challenging for the pollsters to come up with accurate figures. Having said that this same poll from YouGov before the 2004 election was pretty much in the right ball-park although it did over-state Labour and UKIP
There is a serious error in the Telegraph report of the poll. It says that the Tories got 37% in 2004. The actual share was 26.7%. Let’s hope the paper amended this during the evening.
I am not aware of any other final EU polls but there might be.
More follows.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
first
And the survey was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday!
So with certain to vote the Conservatives are 26%. Not certain to vote, 37%. Does this imply the Tories *may* still get a 30% share of the vote, particularly in light of Labour’s complete implosion?
1 … no chance, but as Mike says the Lib Dems might push them to fourth
Fascinating poll. Amazingly, if the ‘certain to vote’ figures are correct, the result is remarkably similar to last time - Tories and LibDems no change, UKIP up 2, 4% swing Lab to Green. But if the ‘all naming a party’ figures were correct there would be a big Tory win. That reverses the usual pattern that Tory certainty to vote is much higher.
That polling would have been taken before arguably the worst 24 hour period any political party has ever had. Labour to take a big hit - the only thing voters hate worse than a split party is a split party led by an incompetent.
Labour - 13% tomorrow in Europe, say I.
As to forth place ~ I think so.
I have seen a timetable of when the results come but I can’t find again. There were some results on Thursday night then Friday Afternoon. Anyone got any ideas?
@3: I think that is quite possible; it all depends on the turnout. If it is high, as predicted, then things are going to be very, very interesting.
331. 337. Who are the hacks that the Telegraph has writing for them nowadays?
Matthew Moore, who he?
No; the public HATE a CORRUPT split party lead by an incompetent. :o)
That would be pretty shocking, but what would it mean exactly? After all, an EU election is not a Westminster election, and nobody expects these numbers to translate into general election numbers. Especially if the Tories can only manage a figure in the mid-20’s, how bad do the other figures really appear to be?
5% open BNP support is worrying, given the reverse Bradley effect.
6 yep, 13 is the figure I picked out
13, 4th and a couple % clear of fifth place
I thought the results for locals were on Thursday/Friday and the Europeans will come in on Sunday which seems a long time to me
C4. Folly Toynbee speaks to the nation :-
Does this wretch get paid by C4 for spouting a load of nonsense?
14. Apparently there is an exit poll being carried out on the Euros because of the potential importance to Mr. Broon’s future.
I will be trying to persuade apathetic people in my office to vote tomorrow on an anti-Brown platform.
Is it more anti-Labour to vote Conservative (and help Cameron with his ‘change mandate’) or Lib Dem (to help get Labour into 4th place)? Am fairly confident that UKIP will come second without any nudging.
I am happy to recommend either based on people’s individual views (which I don’t really know about).
REPOSTED from last thread for Malcolm.
TY Malcolm.
I may niave but I think we have other goodies.
We are getting some really good eggs in and as I am now a medium size cheese - I am getting rid of the less good apples.
I am tough northern cookie!
OMG! we have MPNP back with his inane comments of the obvious.
After his discraceful toadying to his Great Leader this morning, I would think he would be ashamed to make any retort today.
But no! thats Labour all over; a perpetual whine about people making more money than he does. Envy and Jealousy, Labour’s reason for existence.
Further thought: the remarkably high UKIP ‘certain’ share and low ‘uncertain’ share contradicts my assumptions about most UKIP voters, that they’re generally rather disillusioned people who may or may not vote. Au contraire, as we Brits say, they seem to be extremely zealous.
I *think* what’s happened is that a sort of consensus has emerged that they and the Greens are ‘good’ protest vote. Nobody really hates either party - the Greens are like your idealistic granddaughter, UKIP like your nostalgic grandma. Most people do feel bad about voting BNP (they’re like the roughneck cousin who keeps getting into fights in pubs) so they’re not mkaing visible progress, and their USP of not being the big 3 has been stolen.
The other YouGov poll mentioned at the end of the last thread is clearly a private one (the intro said ‘we will provide the information to our clients’ or similar) - from the questions I can guess who.
Am I reading it right at 10% others? Even allowing a generous 5% for SNP+Plaid, that’s a lot for the really small parties.
18, mmmm, cheese.
Remember to bring forward a space cannon production programme when you’re Prime Minister!
21- Respect and all those other partys that are standing, No to Democracy Yes to EU, or was it the other way round
The interesting point of the poll, is the Tories do not seem to be benefiting much from Labour’s meltdown.
In our little hamlet, (hardly typical I must admit) there are only two posters on display, 1 Libdem and a Green, although I’m sure the majority will be voting Conservative: on the other hand?
p.s.
I don’t do posters.
20 - Nick, Have you also told Gordon to stick it and that you don’t want the Home Sec job - No one seems to want it?
Moran might take it on for the rest of the parliament I suppose?
At what point should I wheel out my Truly Appalling Shaun Woodward Gossip?
20. Labour is like the father who locks you in a cellars then humps you for years on end.
Can I be Home Sec? I could be given a place in the Lords. I don’t mind…
Oh, hello weathercock, good evening to you too.
You don’t mind your potential Cabinet moonlighting with up to a dozen directorships? In that you differ from Mr Cameron, who you’ll recall tried to curb it but was reportedly warned off by Mr Hague and others.
I picked up an earlier response from someone who said it wasn’t any different from Ministers, who ‘moonlight’ by serving in the Cabinet instead of just being MPs. I don’t think that’s a reasonable view - the one is making money from an unrelated job on the side, the other is a natural extenision of the job you’re elected to.
21. David - Indeed and Libertas / Jury Team only scored 1 per cent. So it must be the SLP, Respect, EDP etc.
24. i spent a lot of today in my ward, delivering last minute pledge letters. This is a solid tory seat that delivers clear majorities for the tories between 400 and a 1000, in a ward where only 1800 to 2000 people normally vote. Not one single poster, for any party, anywhere.
29. Nick Palmer.
I hope you’ve had strong words with Alan Milburn then considering his outside interests?
29, you’re right, Cameron’s lack of control over his frontbench is disappointing.
FT editorial on Brown.
29. I’ve never had a problem with the shadow cabinet being involved with buisness. Hopefully when they form the next government they’ll actually have some experiance of the buisness world, unlike Brown, Blair and the rest of this government that lets not forget had managed to create the worst recession since 1930! Frankly, anything that stops the next government being as pathetically usless and inept as you ghastly lefties have been when it comes to running the economy, is welcome.
One thing that has surprised me was BBC not puffing No2EU as a way of reducing some of the BNP vote.
Does it count as a win on Betfair’s Leader Exit Dates market if the leader in question dies?
Very creditable poll for Labour under the circumstances. I can’t understand why Labour aren’t advertising the good economic news which according to Channel 4 suggests we are now coming out of recession
I may be wrong here!
Meanwhile, a former Conservative Party treasurer has become the latest Tory grandee to indicate that he will back Ukip tomorrow. Lord Kalms said that he was “considering lending” his vote to the eurosceptic party, which has previously won a thinly veiled endorsements from Lord Tebbit and a £100,000 donation from millionaire Tory donor Stuart Wheeler
Aren’t you bound by your membership of a political party to vote for that party and no other.
Will Dave be kicking Lord Kalms, (the only peer to take his name from an indigestion tablet) out of the Tory party.
The non-100% certain to vote fraction - if some of them do turn out, it may well boost the Tory and LibDem numbers, but how likely is it that many/any of the non-100% crowd will turn out for Labour?
Labour finishing 4th looks nailed on.
At least they won’t get beaten by the BNP. Perhaps.
26. Given that I am about to pour my first Royal Oak and coke for the day some tittle tattle would be most entertaining and enjoyed
33. morris dancer, good one!
@26:
All may hear of the Woodward Libel once he’s officially Home Sec.
Not a second sooner.
29
Come on, they are in OPPOSITION. When they have real jobs to do in government, they will mostly give up these other jobs.
Judging by UK Parliament, being an MP is not exactly a full time occupation…
Think we’ll see bigger support towards the Greens, as a genuine alternative to those of us on the Left who are getting ever so fed up with this continual sleaze that Labour are up to their necks with, as I do not see the Liberal Democrats as left-wing enough for us.
29 That’s a slightly disingenuous answer, Nick P. In what way is being a departmental minister a “natural extension” of being a member of the Legislature? None, I’d say, and if we had a more enlightened constitution we wouldn’t let anyone do both.
Besides which, it implies that your average backbench MP, if he has time to be a minister, has time for a few directorships or a bit of journalism.
I think Cammo’s point was more about making sure that the shadow cabinet spend time on the (unpaid) role of shadow cabinet minister. Personally, I’m not bothered.
The other problem is that if you have bright guys in the Commons with high earning potential, you’re effectively saying that while they’re in opposition, all they can make is 65K plus expenses. So I would suggest they will all p1ss off whence they came.
Mike S - “I am not aware of any other final EU polls but there might be.”
Indeed there is !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My new improved ARSE Polling Index will be released tonight at 9.00pm at the latest.
This new ARSE model has been thoroughly overhauled, replumbed, revamped and recharged for action !!!!!!!!!
Remember there’s no finer object of polling desire than the sight of my ARSE in full flow.
According to BBC24, Iran is right now having a live presidential TV debate, between Ahmedinejad and his opponents - with open and vigorous argument.
Such a debate is, of course, something Labour in London refuse to countenance.
British democracy is now inferior to that of…. Iran. Nice. Thanks Tony, thanks Gordon.
@44:
It’s good for opposition politicians to have outside interests, so they can observe at the coalface the damage that a Labour government has done to British business.
47- Sounds fecophiliastic!
31.”Gaz says:
3/6/2009 at 8:01 pm
24. i spent a lot of today in my ward, delivering last minute pledge letters.2
Snap. Much colder tonight, so not so many folk in their gardens ready looking for a blether. Only had a couple of voters express any real anger about expenses, or threatening not to vote at all in disgust.
Pretty rural/agricultural area around here, and some regard voting in these Euro’s very important.
Mandelson and Woodward in the top 4 jobs, lol - up and down the land, clause 4 bods filling water barrels full of beer and then drowning themselves. Hari-kiri, old Labour style.
b. Indeed. It could turn out quite well for the Conservatives. Vote share up possibly even in the low 30’s, the Labour vote depressed by the last couple of days chaos, UKIP slipping back from 2004 (remember Farage said something like if he did not return 12 MEP’s he would step down) and with the Libdems and Greens progressing.
Of course then we have the local elections and those could be really interesting…….
Site traffic heading for record
So far today we have had 175,944 hits (page down-loads) and it looks like we could finish up in excess of 200,000 - a figure we have exceeded only once before.
The controlling of the maximum number of posts per page to 50 has enabled the site to stay stable. This’ll continue until things get back to normal (whatever that is!)
@47:
What’s French for ARSE?
.
Whats happened to Tim? Now that Watsons gone can it be that Tim’s gone as well.
“Who is going to knock at No 10 and tell Gordon Brown the game is up?”
By Ben Brogan
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/local-elections/5438926/Who-is-going-to-knock-at-No-10-and-tell-Gordon-Brown-the-game-is-up.html
40. Given that the Conservatives usually do better in actual election than the polls before the election say they will, I *think* there could be a strong possibility of the Tories managing to get a 30% vote share, which would be pretty good given the moats, heli-pads and duck houses. Labour are looking odds on to fall into the teens now, I think.
I am surprised Labour are trying to smear Blears. She is the one person in the Labour party , that I think will fight back in public. She may decide to bring them all down with her.
Will Labour give up the Tory toff line if Brown appoints Woodward Home, Secretary ?
SkyNews reporting the email address for Labour MPs to use to sign-up to get rid of Brown. But Hey! Why can’t we all join in.
All you have to do is email signonnow@hotmail.co.uk if you want to add your weight to the Labour rebels who seek to get rid of this useless PM.
On your tombstone, Roger:
“Hope dies last
Longer lived than Brown
And his final cheerleader”
@47: cul
Which is why you must be very careful to pronounce beaucoup “boocoo” not “boocue”. One means “lots”, the other means “nice arse”.
55. Derriere Arse
Sadly for Nick Palmer, his intervention might have had more impact if Gordo had not been sitting next to the richest man in the cabinet. Unlucky…
55 CUL
But there might be a ruder one.
As an interjection I think PUTAIN! fits the bill (although it means something completely different of course).
55, le ARSE, contracted to l’ARSE.
Will YouGov do as well as 2004
The final shares of the vote for the 2004 Euro election for GB were:-
This was the YouGov “eve of poll” survey:-
Mike S - you might wish to reduce the maximum down to 25 once I put up my ARSE !!
43 is it something to do with Dunblane??
54- Then it will be 20 posts, then 10, 5, 2, 1….
What does all this mean for speaker betting. I reckon Bercow plot must be blown now. Much less chance of organised Labour whipping operation to get him in. And some possibility that 22 June election may be overtaken by a dissolution, in which case all bets are off. Perhaps now time to lay heavily?
67 Mike - do you know whether the YouGov 2004 poll was certain to vote figures or all voters?
From Brogan’s article:
“Until that hero steps forward, however, we have to watch the progress of various conspiracies running in parallel.”
Almost what I said in the last thread.
67 Labour doing better than 2004? I think not!
57. This nonsense from the likes of Brogan about Cameron letting Brown off the hook at PMQ’s is just that, nonsense. It was perfectly obvious to me that Cameron was holding back and refusing to go for Browns jugular. I mean, he didn’t even read out quotes from the Guardian - We know that Cameron can be utterly brutal and ruthless when he wants to be. Fact is, he didn’t want to add to Browns humiliation, so he deliberatly held back. No doubt if he had gone for the full pronged attack he would have been accused of being an etonian bully. Cameron can’t win with some people.
Sky are now claiming the C37-L21-LD19 figures are Westminster figures. WTF is going on!
Philip Johnston in the Telegraph has this article Gordon Brown: Even now, he might sit it out
74. You read it wrong. Mike its not at all clear on a casual glance
Rogerdamus calls the end of the recession…
So Roger, tell me, how is the tax take looking? Oh whoops, 1 million fewer higher rate taxpayers
And the PSBR? Oh whoops £175bn at least this year.
Has mortgage and other lending resumed at anything like decent levels? Is the UK personal debt NOT now larger than the rest of Europe put together? Is unemployment not rising any more? Oh…
The dramatic slashing of interest rates has brought about if not a feelgood factor then at least a feel-OK factor amongst many people, but with all this QE and borrowing, inflation will rear its head at some point, interest rates will have to rise and any nascent recovery (which is visible only to those with the rosiest of rose-tinted spectacles) runs a very strong risk of being squashed flat.
Ask Ken, he is more authoritative than me on these issues I know. Or ask 95% of finance professionals who do not expect a return to growth any time soon:
http://tinyurl.com/qyfadb
In fact, to drag it back vaguely on topic, this is all a good reason why the tories should want a 2010 election - a failure of recovery to materialise in 2009 were there to be an election soon woudl be very bad news for Cameron, even though it would be not his fault at all.
According to Brogan James Purnell has not spoken to Gordon in months.
76. IIRC yesterday’s YouGov poll was entirely Euro based - certainly can’t recall General Election questions, though some very interesting weighting-ish questions along the lines of “which party did your parents support” (new one on me) and lots of q’s based on race and immigration (presumeably to shake out the nailed on cert UKIP/BNPers).
77- Any chance of a word from the Queen at some point? I would guess that she would prefer to stay entirely above the fray, but if there was ever a time for her to speak up, it might be sometime soon…
37. I only ask because, if so, the 100/1 offered on Cameron ceasing to be leader this month basically amounts to a dead pool.
79. While not wanting to take any of the deserved blame away from Brown for how he has screwed public finances, there are clearly green shoots out there. Financial institution balance sheets are looking much better, manufacturing has stopped its decline and consumer confidence is starting to return. Regardless of what those who don’t understand monetary policy screeched, quantitative easing has been a particular success (although credit for that should go to the Bank rather than the Treasury or the PM’s Office).
6 Marquee Mark
How old are you? Have you ever read any political history? Don’t make such bald statements that are more balderdash than bald. I’d expect that kind of statement from one of my 13 year olds at High School, not a contributor to pb.
79 I think it’s fair to say that we are close to the lowest point of the recession. But, that doesn’t mean things won’t be tough for some time, or that unemployment won’t hit 3 million. And the public borrowing figures are horrendous.
WRT the poll, this seems about right, up till yesterday. Today’s events will propel Labour to a lower score.
80. LOL! What a load of fruitcakes.
I think we still have another 2-3 financial shocks to come yet but we’ll see.
I still think Conservatives will poll 29-30%.
Labour will have an absolute stinker. 4th position and Brown is definitely history.
Re 76. Anthony Wells is also suggesting the C37-L21-LD19 figures are Westminster figures.
77. Callaghan surely?
85 - as I have discovered over the decades there can be a sympathy vote too. Hard core supporters can be motivated to support their party during periods of distress. Not a lot but I have known that over the years.
Re: Brown’s reshuffle. Brown looks most comfortable - and often gets good press from some quarters - when he’s ingratiating himself with the right, so expect Woodward to get one of the big three positions of state and a Cabinet job for Quentin Davies. I know this sounds crazy, but Dr Bob Spink was surprisingly flattering about Brown recently, which hinted to me that there’d been some talks going on. Thus a ministerial role for Spink isn’t out of the question. Might do something to counter the BNP threat too!
84 Socrates
I agree, there are without doubt some positive signs. But the underlying situation remains dire, and for me the jury is out on QE. Green shoots are a result of restocking of inventories, lower variable rate mortgage payments for a few milllion plus the nice weather, none of which will last into the autumn and winter sadly IMHO.
Terrifying statistics like the >5% of B&B mortgage book being in arrears despite the lowest interest rates of all time, plus the news from Latvia today, make me very nervous.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5438615/Latvian-debt-crisis-shakes-Eastern-Europe.html
79/86- If better days are right around the corner, Labour members of Parliament should be holding on for dear life, delaying a general election until the last possible moment. The Keystone Cops act being currently staged by Labour isn’t very conducive to that outcome. One can only conclude that they have lost their nerve and aren’t behaving rationally in their collective party interests anymore.
Back from a final session of electioneering, no new injuries. Pretty good session. No worse than usual, some ranters, one or two people really don’t understand the European voting system.
Anthony Wells is right: the 37-21-19 figs are Westminster voting intention figures
96 - James, I was sorry to hear of your incident with a dog. Not a Labourador I hope. This happened to our election agent in 2005 who had the tips of two fingers bitten off.
61. If you rearrange that slightly, you have a haiku:
Longer lived than Brown
And his final cheerleader
Hope finally dies
94. I don’t think you can put the huge improvement in health of our financial institutions can be put down to a small number of low rate mortgages or restocked inventories! Things like arrears and unemployment always lag economic recovery. The ones that lead are things like equity markets, financial firms balance sheets and consumer confidence. They are all looking good.
From what I’ve seen on the streets, UKIP are going to cost the Conservatives a lot of council seats, both ones held and ones that could be expected to be gained. In a number of areas UKIP will take enough votes to let the Lib Dems in. Suppose it’s one of the problem with having Euros and locals on the same day.
97 Peter Kellner
Thanks for the clarification.
My eve of poll prediction is as follows:-
Conservative 26 seats
Labour 12 seats
UKIP 12 seats
Lib Dem 10 seats
Green 4 seats
BNP 2 seats
SNP 2 seats
Plaid 1 seat
DUP, UUP, Sinn Fein 1 each.
Sample of size of 4000! Why so large?
= Con majority 74
89
Labour MPs have no balls.
Brown is safe: he will tough it out. Or ruin Labour.
Or attempt to tough it out, be forced to go AND ruin Labour..
Whatever it will be , it will in my opinion be bloody…
101
How many UKIP people are standing in local elections?! That is just bizarre.
UKIP to get 8% in a Westminster election? Sounds somewhat unlikely.
Given the Telegraph cock up on the 2004 Tory share and now this almighty cock on the westminster poll, that journalist should be put back on Tea-making duties for the rest of the parliament.
101 Probably not, as UKIP are leaving 75% of seats uncontested. I accept, in the other 25%, they will do some damage to us. But, this may be offset in part by Greens doing damage to Labour and Lib Dems., and BNP doing damage to everybody.
103
As an activist sean how do you feel about Lord Kalm’s lending his vote to UKIP.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-donor-to-lend-vote-to-another-party-1696093.html
Is that allowed under the rules, or will Kalms suffer the same fate as Wheeler.
107/110 - they are a big problem in Kent, although by no means contesting every seat. Proximity to the continent, etc.
98 - No not at all. Well I’m sure I shall survive!
110
Sean
Watch Stoke on Trent for the BNP .
106. Agree. All he needs to do is bring all the goblins out of the shadows and plant them in the cabinet and that’s that.
108 Of course, the Conservative/UKIP share is almost interchangeable. I’ve suggested before, and will suggest again, that the Conservatives should give UKIP a clear run in a handful of Lib Dem seats in return for UKIP standing down in a bunch of marginals.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE Polling Index that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR MORI, BIPEX and the JNN Political Index that for the Euro Elections gives :
Con 27% .. Lab 17% .. LibDem 17% .. UKIP 17% .. Green 7% .. BNP 7% .. Others 7%.
The above figures include the PISSED Jack W added SOAMES weighting.
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
111 IIRC Lord Kalms holds no office in the Party, and so is unlikely to be disciplined for voting UKIP. We’d have to cut our membership in half if we kicked out everyone who voted UKIP in Euro elections.
99 — Very good haiku!
People say you shouldn’t have to conform to the 5-7-5 syllable rule when you write ones in English, but I’ve seen some very elegant Anglo-haiku sticking to the pattern.
Interesting, didn’t his predecessor get in trouble for pre-announcing things…
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/06/brown-advised-to-preannounce-a-spring-2010-election.html
111 Lending a vote is one thing, making the intention public is another! I seriously doubt his influence upon the electorate, for what it’s worth.
117 Sounds about right, although I’d put the Greens up a bit, and the Lib dems down a bit.
So after all that the changes based on this poll compared with 2004 Euro Election the changes are.
Con 26 (NC)
UKIP 18 (+2)
Lab 16 (-6)
LD 15 (NC)
Green 10 (+4)
BNP 5 (NC)
117 - Hedging there on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th Jack W?
118 I think taking the Conservative whip in HoL probably counts as enough of an official position.
111. He will be removed from the party, advocating the voting for another candidate when a Conservative candidate is there to vote for is incompatible with the terms of membership.
116 - Parties should never give other parties a free run in any election. Especially not if it means not even putting up a candidate (and UKIP couldn’t beat the LibDems if there were a Conservative candidate, no matter how little campaigning the Conservative did).
120 - LOL - 5-year fixed term parliaments, I can’t see that getting support from anyone!
So that’s
C 22 (-5)
Lab 13 (-6)
UKIP 13 (+1)
LD 12 (nc)
Green 4 (+2)
SNP 3 (+1)
PC 2 (+1)
Green seats very critical on just a small extra number of supporters. No Labour MEPs in SW
If Jack is right, then the media story will be about placing the parties on 17%, especially if Labour get edged out, rather than some of the bigger issues. The ARSE has form of course.
124 James B. My ARSE couldn’t get a sheet of bog roll between them or the Greens/Nazi’s !!
128 - No, not when you are sticking two fingers up to calls for an election.
114 - was discussing elections at work today and the group I was chatting with all said they were voting tomorrow. All wanted Labour to be punished.
What shocked me though was that one of the guys is quite senior in my company and he is voting BNP and another guy also admitted he was voting BNP.
Both the BNP voters solidly working class who feel Labour betrayed working class.
Not one person expressing opinion declared for Labour.
Gordon universally hated amongst the group (mind you Labour hated too)
“When asked how they would vote in a general election, if the responses of people who are not certain to vote are included in the results, the Tory vote share jumps to 37 per cent, with Labour in second place on 21 per cent and the Lib Dems in third on 19 per cent. Ukip support drops to just 8 per cent, reflecting the party’s lack of “casual” sympathisers.”
The jump to 37% appears to be for a general election, not the Euro poll from what the Telegraph says. I’m confused.
130 tpfkar. And what a beautiful form it is !!
127 Actually, it was quite a successful tactic that the Conservatives pursued prior the Sixties. We cut deals with the Liberals, National Liberals, Liberal Unionists (in Scotland), and the odd independent, in order to maximise the number of non-Labour MPs who were dependent on our goodwill.
120. “Interesting, didn’t his predecessor get in trouble for pre-announcing things”
So he did
Pre-announcing seems crazy to me. It would actually encourage, not silence, calls for an earlier election, since the prize of forcing one would be greater (not just the election, but making Brown look weak(er)). When Brown refused, he’d be accused of only doing so to save face.
131 - I would concur on those three, think you are wrong on the Conservative score. Think they will be at or above 30.
136 - Not putting up a candidate, or not running a campaign?
If people want to vote Conservative they should be given the opportunity to vote Conservative.
118
Surely there is a difference, what you vote in private is one thing, but for a party member, (a prominent one at that) to publicly state they are voting for another party, that must be against the rules of party membership.
In a few years time, when Dave’s government is unpopular, (it will be, like most governments) UKIP will be a natural home for disillusioned Conservatives. Anybody who acts in such a way to give credibility to UKIP now, is really going to cause enormous problems for a future Conservative government.
137 - if Brown pre-announced May 2010 and justified it as being consistent with proposals for fixed term Parliaments then the result would be that support for fixed term Parliaments would disappear as quickly as it appeared.
The wheels appear to be coming off the Chapter 11 reorganizations of Chrysler and GM already.
Sen Jay Rockefeller is not happy at all. “I don’t believe that companies should be allowed to take taxpayer funds for a bailout and then leave local dealers and their customers to fend for themselves with no real notice and no real help. That is just plain wrong,” Rockefeller said.
Chrysler is closing 789 dealers next week, which means thousands of unemployed..
GM is closing 2000 dealerships over the next 2 years.
The politicians want to slow down th process, examine alternatives - but unfortunately the bankruptcies are under control of bankruptcy court judges, who don’t move at deliberate congressional speed, but as fast as possible.
This could get ugly, as most senators and congressmen have constituents affected by this.
Any delay, red tape or attempts to interfere could seriously affect the chance of GM (or ‘new co’ as the new GM is known at present) or Chrysler (Fiat?) succeeding after emerging from chapter 11. Maybe next time around it’ll be chapter 7 for one or both of them.
re 101 well if the electorate are too stupid to realise that they are two entirely separate elections
Labour in chaos and the Tories polling worse than they did under Michael Howard and William Hague?
139 Not putting up a candidate.
It still happens in local elections. Think back to 1995, our worst ever year. A number of Conservatives held onto their seats by resigning the whip and redesignating themselves as Independents, and a whole variety of names including “horticulturalist”.
It may seem silly, but there are people out there who’ll vote for a Conservative in all but name, so long as he doesn’t call himself a Conservative.
re 117 on the basis of Jack’s ARSE the BNP will get 3 seats
Why do papers bother with polls when they can’t be bothered to report them properly
143 - The last three county elections down here have been on the same day as General Elections. County turnout has been around the 70% mark. So people are just going to vote and voting twice. I’d suggest the majority vote the same way twice.
145 - Well i just think it would be very short-sighted. Coldstone for once makes a good point at 140. Conservatives encouraging UKIP is just storing up trouble for the future.
If people want to vote Conservative they should be given the choice - sacrificing voters for short term tactical gain would be a mistake.
142- And all that taxpayer money going to prop up union wages, benefits, perks, and retirement packages, while many of the taxpayers contributing to that bailout have far less generous wages and benefits, or perhaps even work for a dealership that’s going out of business. This is bad politics when it comes to the millions of victims, taxpayers and laid off workers alike, and that’s what Rockefeller is responding to. I have no idea what he will actually do about it, though.
The politics of bailouts may not be entirely obvious at first glance, but it is seething below the surface. While driving down a street in New York recently, I saw spray painted on the side of a building, quite starkly, “WHERE’S MY BAILOUT?”
136 The National Liberals (previously Liberal Nationals) merged at constituency level back in 1947, the Liberal Unionists back in 1912 so while the names were different they were all really part of the Conservative & Unionists (as were the Ulster Unionists as far as national politics went). IIRC the Conservatives did not oppose in a very few Liberal seats back in 1945 and maybe 1950 or 51
146 Chris A. I regret so.
Does anyone know if the expenses stories are over?
Or are we going to get a blockbuster tonight?
re 117. I think Jack ARSE, as ever, is pretty close to the outcome.
141. I don’t think it wouldn’t matter how he justified it. The key point is that he’s in a very weak position and would be putting up a target for people to attack.
Regarding fixed-term Parliaments, if you are sceptical about that idea then so am I. It would need several other constitutional changes to make sense. I think it’s a discuss-it-over-a-drink kind of idea rather than anything immediately practical.
Betting Post >>>>>>>>>>
UKIP have been within 14 points of the Tories in four out of the last five opinion polls yet are 4/1 in the +14 Handicap Market at Ladbrokes.
Has to be worth a punt.
142. Tim B. I’ve looked at the Chrysler and GM cases (not in that much detail) and US bankruptcy law is not my specialism, but I know a fair amount about it.
What senators and congressmen think matters not. Both firms are in fast pre-planned bankruptcies and the only people with power on this are judges, basically the judge overseeing the case or if a more senior court agrees to an appeal. The pols can make noise and placate their constituents, but not much more.
Bottom line, legally, the Chapter 11 reorganisations look difficult to reject to me. The government is safting the unsecured and the secured creditors, but is not doing anything illegal or giving them grounds to force the deal off the tracks. I dont think that absolute priority has been deviated from (senior creditors with secured claims get first call on assets etc), contrary to the views of some people. Essentially without government support any deal would have been on substantially worse terms and no other restructuring deal is available that sees a source of funding matching that offered by the government.
The government is favouring unions (or rather their pension/health care plans), but to some extent this is necessary as a price of giving the firms more flexibility anyway. Is it good for taxpayers? Probably not, but the effect of a far more radical surgery at the likes of GM or Chrysler would have been pretty bad for the economy as a whole. It does mean that the US government is becoming much more of an active participant in the US corporate sector than in the past - I’d guess that the scale of the involvement takes us back to the days of the Tennessee Valley Authority.
149 I think it’s the reverse of short-sighted. One is gradually drawing people into the (small c) conservative camp, who wouldn’t regard themselves as Conservatives.
85 Malcolm, I stand by this being the worst 24 hour period any political party has suffered in the time in which opinion polling has been undertaken. The 24-hour media has been universal in its coverage - and universally destructive to the image of the Labour Party. The press has been utterly condemnatory, when it hasn’t been mocking. How often have old friends like the Guardian deserted a party? When have Prime Ministers suffered such calls to stand down? When have letters been circulated to force out a Prime Minister? When have Cabinets disintegrated?
If you can think of a worse 24 hour period - and I include Black Wednesday in this - then I’ll happily debate it.
@149: Absolutely. Ultimately, the only way you can get a Tory is by voting Tory.
Personally, I believe that we shouldn’t be in this to stuff the others, but to argue our case, win where we can win, and gradually make inroads elsewhere.
Giving up on any area, and encouraging tatical voting, ultimately makes it harder to win in adjacent divisions/wards/constituencies, because it erodes the local activist base.
I think people have to remember that if the Euros (and to some extent the Counties) have the Conservatives hit as hard as Labour (although obviously with a lead) then Brown will be able to say that it is a protest against Westminster politicians, not against his leadership.
@161: But if the Tories get 27% or more, that argument won’t wash.
117. Does the ARSE have a prediction on turnout?
I reckon the (comparatively) good turnout will leave the Tories a little higher than polls imply: somewhere around 28-32.
Labour will scrape to second but score under 20 percent of the vote.
UKIP third, Lib Dems fourth, BNP will gain one seat.
That’s my shekel’s worth.
FWIW I have so far seen barely half a dozen euro posters while travelling across half of Spain in three days.
158 - how? Not allowing people to vote is driving people away, not drawing them in.
153. No, they’re not.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5431880/MPs-expenses-Alice-Mahons-20000-loan-for-new-doors-paid-off-by-the-public.html
I’m not sure that pre-announcing an election a year away is such a swift idea, unless of course you are Gordon Brown, in which case all your problems get solved at once regarding your job security. Unfortunately even though you are now secure you are officially a lame duck with no power. The rest of the country is champing at the bit to be done with the election, and government business would be on hold.
But how about pre-announcing an election in September / October this year? You cold even appear statesman like, in the best interests of the country to stabilize the situation, give parties time to select candidates, cancel party conferences etc, give the nation a chance to let their voice be heard, moving onto the green shoots of growth on the broad sunlit uplands …. I should have been a speechwriter
Driving down the M1, I only saw advertising for one party: The BNP. on 2 motorway bridges, and on cars.
What has changed is the willingness of BNP voters to announce their allegiance. That is a breakthrough for them. Serves the other parties right for talking about the knuckledraggers so much.
84. Socrates
“Financial institution balance sheets are looking much better, manufacturing has stopped its decline and consumer confidence is starting to return.”
Not my part of manufacturing unfortunately.
I suspect that what is maintaining consumer spending is ever increasing amounts of debt.
The image of the unemployed person of previous recessions was of someone who had a few tenners and a handful of coins to survive for a fortnight on. Now anyone losing their job can just keep spending with their credit card for months.
But it all comes to an end eventually. And meanwhile government and corporate debt continues to spiral.
It’s looking more and more like a nasty ‘W’ shaped recession.
154 Mike S. Who doubts it ?!?
I’m unsure why the media bother with vastly expensive pollsters. Come to my ARSE. 500 guineas and a case of fine malt does the job !! …. although it’s always best to get the malt delivered apres my musings or the results might look a little COMRES - Comedy Results !!
153. No, they’re not finished yet.
http://tinyurl.com/ovxxun
Sean Fear- your leader has labelled UKIP as ‘closet racists and fruitcakes, mostly’.
What makes you think he’ll arrange a deal with them? You seriously have lost the plot.
151 WRT Liberal Unionists, that’s true for England, but not for Scotland. There were, for example, five Liberal Unionists elected in Scotland as late as 1955. They took the Conservative whip at Westminster, but they, and their fellow Scottish Unionists, were a separate party from the Conservatives. The name, Unionist, had a resonance in Scotland, which the name, Conservative, didn’t.
At local level in Scotland (and in parts of England) the Conservatives didn’t stand, but backed anti-Labour candidates with titles like Progressive, Moderate, and, obviously, independents.
167- I think people become less afraid to declare their allegiance with parties like the BNP as the reputations of the mainstream parties decline (e.g., “Don’t blame me for this crooked crowd, I’m voting for the BNP”).
145 - Sean, until the 1970’s when the SNP decided to contest local elections nationwide, the Conservatives fought under the banner of ‘Progressives’ in urban Scotland. These candidates were usually the anti-Labour candidates and were a mixture of Tories, Liberals and Unionists. When party politics became more active in the 70’s they disappeared under that banner and they appeared under their true party colours or went Independent.
Just proves that Labour and Brown tried to fix the comres poll the other day…..
Just proves that Labour and Brown tried to fix the comres poll the other day…..
171 - to be fair i don’t think he said it was likely to happen. Good thing too.
171 I doubt if he will. I’m simply saying I think it would be a good idea.
165 You’re getting people to vote for people who are more or less affiliated to the Conservatives without calling themselves Conservatives. A good example of this was the “radio doctor” Charles Hill, who was MP for Luton in the 50s, and ran as Liberal and Conservative, with the endorsement of both parties.
4 people now critically ill with Swine Flu’ in Scotland. Coincidence, or is it turning nasty?
145. “It may seem silly, but there are people out there who’ll vote for a Conservative in all but name, so long as he doesn’t call himself a Conservative.”
Says a lot about perceptions of our party though, doesn’t it?
I expect the Conservatives to do relatively badly in the South West - although mitigated to a slight degree by Gibraltar - as the popular Neil Parish is standing down and the very unpopular Giles Chichester remaining.
Has anybody heard how the emergency tory meeting went at 6pm tonight ?
157 - Ken:
Yes I think you have it right. I’m not a bankruptcy specialist either, (even remotely!) but watching the hearings on TV, they are madder than wet hens, and of course powerless to do anything about it in the immediate term, in site of what is obviously a clamour from their constituents.
But these are powerful people, they have long memories, hold grudges and don’t like to be pissed off, or worse ignored, which is largely what has happened on this up to now.
He said that the UKIP and Tory vote was interchangable. So roughly 40% of Tory voters are ‘closet racists and fruitcakes, mostly’, according to your own party leader.
163 MichaelK. ARSE turnout prediction 33%.
178 - UKIP are in favour of complete withdrawal from the EU. The Conservatives are not. There is no basis for “affiliation”.
No resigntaions yet tonight - will have to be quick to meet the 10pm news! otherwise possible for tom morning. I still think 1 of them will be darling !
182 - Some areas of the country have always been like that.
What was the point in voting NF if Harvey Proctor was your MP.
How much effort do the BNP put into Romford?
I think the UKIP vote may benefit from the Local Elections being in the shires rather than the Metropolitan Counties, and the same factor may depress the BNP vote.
159 MM the problem for us is that quite a bulk of the general public are not that interested in politics and might watch the news. They are more interested what happens in ’soaps’ or ‘Britain has Talent’ than ‘Newnight’ They are not immune to what is going around them but politics to them is not top item of their daily lives. The sods!
182. There are many many Labour supporters who are closet racists and fruitcakes as well.
180
Casino Royale
I would be surprised if more than 5% of electors could name a single one of their MEPs. And a small fraction of those would know who was standing down or not. So the effect you allude to will be minuscule.
183. Jack W - Thank you
Local Labour posting last-minute leaflets tonight:
“Angry? So are we! However badly other parties MPs behave, we expect better from all Labour Mps…. Party members are angry, and feel betrayed by some Labour MPs. Don’t take it out on us locally…”
Pretty bad when you have to campaign against your own MPs, eh? Unless they canvassed on the last Bank Holiday, there’s notably been no Labour canvassing as far as I’ve been aware in this strong Labour area [still two Labour signs up today]. I’ve been canvassed for every previous election whilst I’ve lived here.
I’ll be gobsmacked if Labour don’t come fourth, not that it makes any difference to their prospects at the GE.
180 It would be true of all parties.
182 An unfortunate turn of phrase.
184 Very many Conservative members would consider that there is a great deal of common ground between the two.
I have a feeling that this Labour leadership coup is turning into yet another damp squib. Yet again the rebels are foundering on the lack of a candidate, and the media are clutching at straws with this ludicrous “letter”.
“How much effort do the BNP put into Romford?”
A considerable amount
182. Cute, but confusing activists/members with voters. Very different things indeed.
(Well, I’m assuming Cameron didn’t say UKIP voters were CR&F. That would be … bold.)
194. It was worth a try
192. alex. Surely much depends on the results and also on this phantom reshuffle. The chipmunk did her best to stab Gord, but she can hardly be expected to finish off the fat oaf.
192, only takes 50 odd members to put their name to it and it should be enough to remove Brown.
But if he does survive Labour have just scored a phenomenal own goal. Johnson, Harman and Mandelson are all very much on-side, and they’re the bigger beasts of the Labour jungle.
193 - Not particularly, they send most of their activists elsewhere, even not bothering trying to sell their paper there for a decade.
179. With the amount of cases we’re seeing of Swine Flu, we’re at the sort of level where in between all the mild cases we can expect some people to be become seriously ill with it. Infact, we’re probably at the sort of level where a fatality is likely. This doesn’t seem like anything you wouldn’t expect in an outbreak of seasonal winter flu (which kills several thousand people every winter) and probably isn’t anything to worry about.
There is movement in Betfair Brown exit market. June last sold at 1.60.
186 Marcia,
Anyone who has seen the TV, picked up a newspaper, listened to the radio or surfed the net will have absorbed that something big has been happening in UK politics. Especially those who bother to vote. And we are at the end of an election campaign. Admittedly, not a general election, but still, a national poll. People pick up on mood, even if not all the specifics us anoraks can bandy around. And that ignores that people are very motivated about political shenanigans right now.
Cammo is up for getting on the campaign trail
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2009/06/david-cameron-addresses-eve-of-european-elections-day-rally-in-hammersmith.html
Where’s Clegg in these final hours? Bracing himself for coming behind the least popular government in history, in fourth place?
So, YouGov’s 37/21/19 was actually a genuine Westminster voting intention poll then?
Having rejigged my Euroelection calculations, I get similar seat projections to those of Chris (note - figures in brackets represent NET change):
Con 22 (-2)
Lab 14 (-4)
LD 12 (+2)
UKIP 13 (+1)
Grn 5 (+3)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)
So for the betting markets, I still have Labour *just* ahead of both UKIP and the Lib Dems despite polling worse than UKIP. Marvellous thing, PR.
202, actually it’s very hard to see where the parties will finish, except that the Tories should come top.
188. It’s had a huge effect on activists and party workers. GOTV operation will be a shambles tomorrow.
Contrast Hannan - southeast - with Chichester - southwest. Both no.1 in their regions but the first is the most popular and the second the most unpopular MEP.
There will be a notable difference.
183. You’re way out there JackW.
I recon 40%+
Nice story in the DT about Ann Cryer and her son John both claiming ACA on a flat owned by her daughter. The daughter works for the CPS! Talk about keeping it in the family. No doubt the good citizens of Keighley will be supportive.
Anthony Wells reports that the so called “non 100% certain to vote” share figures are in fact the Westminster voting intention vote share figures therefore we have
Con 37 -2
Lab 21 -1
LD. 19 +1
UKIP 8 Gre 5 SNP/PC and BNP 4 each
203.
Yes and I think we can conclude the comres poll was a complete pile of crap !
212. Conservatives taking a further hit, but nothing like ComRes’s 30%, thankfully.
208. Cue for famous phrase from Anthony King…
Gut feeling says an awful lot more people who still consider themselves Labour could have decided to go Green because of today’s shenanigans.
212
If true, the blue team will be unhappy that their solid 40% is being eroded down. However, it’s still 16% ahead of Labour, and could well recover post-Euros from some “fruitcake” Ukipers returning to the fold.
What do YouGov normally use as a filter? In other words does the 37% compare with previous polls? Presumably the 100% certain figure would be higher - are the data anywhere?
208. Local paper article about the Cryers here:
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/local/localbrad/4415539.MP_hits_out_at____slur____over_flat/
@110 madasafish advised us all to look for the BNP in Stoke.
Presumably he means a high %age in the Euro, since there are no local elections in Stoke ?
217 - When Cameron and Hague line up with all the continental racists and fruitcakes, do you think that will tempt the UKIP island fruitcakes and racists back to the Conservative Party?
37% is the lowest the Conservatives have been in YouGov poll since October 2007. 21% is the lowest Labour have ever been in a YouGov poll.
217 Seth Gillette
It does depend on when the next election is.
Brown could damage the Conservatives immensely (at the cost of also damaging Labour) if he announced a snap general election on Monday morning. The memory of the Euros won’t have faded and people will vote again for UKIP (and Green/BNP).
221 - at some point people like you will realise that calling people racist has become counter productive - or maybe not.
nuLabour the best friend the BNP ever had.
223
Perhaps, but there is simply no way Brown will do that. It would have to be over his dead body.
219,the T&A seems to be abit helpful in it’s reporting to Ann cryer,tipical of the anti tory local news paper.
Not that Nick at 218: Assuming Anthony Wells is right (and he probably is) YouGov’s 37% for the Tories comparable with the usual Westmnister polls, i.e. slightly down and dropping back towards their 2005 level of 34%. But of course the lead is still fine for them as Labour are so low.
Of more immediate interest is that we now after all only seem to have YouGov for the “100% certain to vote” people for the Euros, and we don’t know if these are as usual more Tory than other parties (I expressed surprise upthread that the opposite seemed to be true, but Anthony’s clarification dispels that).
In that case, if turnout is higher than expected, we could get some quite startling results. For example, UKIP could come first - it only takes say a 3% further swing from Tories plus a higher level of uncertain voters actually turning out. It’s not very likely, but I can certainly see them being a close second.
224 - “fruit cakes, loonies and closet racists”
David Cameron on UKIP
225 Seth Gillette
I believe Brown would call an election rather than be forced into resigning.
227 Nick - do you ever feel bad about the damage your party has done to the people of this country.
179 - Nobody knows how many people have got it. 4 critical cases in Scotland in a few days could be indicative of something worse than the bad cold most have been getting.
228,fruit cake,loonie and smearer - johnno on TIM
227 - Then pile all your cash onto the Ladbrokes Handicap Market.
A £6000 bet on UKIP will give you a Cameron sized mortgage return.
227 Thanks t’other Nick - but really. Dream on! Labour infinitely more likely to be 4th than UKIP 1st.
Edit - Actually not sure I quite follow the first part of your answer. My question was whether You Gov normally present the full range of vote-likelihoods or a sub set and whether this poll is consistent with them. the presentation of the figures in the Telegraph seems to be a bit convoluted
228 nuLabour/bluLabour who cares!
220
CreweGwyn
Yes: MEPs
I can see Staffordshire electing a BNP MEP…mainly from Stoke ex Labour voters…but wdik.
It would be so weird if UKIP and Greens were 1st and 2nd.
Labour will still come second IMO, beating expectations (or at least worst fears), and the narrative could then well be: “Brown eases through worst crisis yet and still going. A man of genius.”
Brown bounce number 2 989?
236 - There isn’t a Staffordshire seat, its part of the West Midlands Constituency.
Wonderful view from the No 10 Bunker by Mary Riddell in the Telegraph. Has all the smears faithfully repeated by tim (who I now picture as Kevin McGuire when I read one of his posts by mistake, goes well with Gabble Macshane & Snowflake Cooper) plus the optimistic “He may even emerge more strongly from this grim week, especially if he ends up with a Cabinet of the honest and the forceful” and the threatening “Mr Brown is implacable. From now on, this is a contest of brute strength between him and those who want him gone. His long battle with Tony Blair may have spoiled him for the politics of peace, but it offered a masterclass in the politics of war.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5437869/Gordon-Brown-will-fight-to-the-death.html
169. Your hypothesis is in complete opposition with the actual data, which shows personal debt is being paid down.
238- That seems entirely possible, and would correlate well with precedent: Brown faces disaster, is wounded but not killed, survives to limp on for another day…
FWIW My guess for the Euros :
Con 28
UKIP 18
LD 15
Lab 14
Grn 10
BNP 8
Other 7
I’ll be out of the country when they are counted so probably saved the embarassment of being found out
Great photo on front of FT,
http://page.politicshome.com/images/articles/xft.jpg
Exactly where he should be!
Tim you fool, only one of the handicapped parties can win. They are not all ‘playing’ against the Tories. So if Greens get 10% (+24) and UKIP 18% (+14) bets on UKIP lose. Apologies if I misinterpreted your posts but I got the impression you didnt realise this.
244. Absolute classic. I have been waiting ages to see Brown behind bars.
OMG Jeremy Vine with paint pots, almost like a Vison On Set for local election results.
245 - Yep.
My money is on the Greens at 5/1 but at evens they are no longer value.
I’ve put a saver on UKIP at 4/1 and a very small saver on the Lib Dems at 8/1
Well,if the headline figures are: CON 26 LAB 16 LD 15 UKIP 18 GRN 10 BNP 5
I could see an extra 1/4 to 1/3 of that Labour vote temporarily going to the Greens after today’s chaos.
I also think some of that UKIP vote is hidden UKIP, crouching BNP.
So all told my guess is UKIP and LD neck a neck for 2nd and 3rd and (on the day) Labour vs Green neck a neck for 4th and 5th.
You better be right Tim, or it’ll be Tesco value lager next week.
Nick Palmer is right to point out that the Tories are also seemingly losing momentum at the moment. Since Troughgate (or whatever we are calling it) began, the only party to have gained ground in the polls are the Liberal Democrats. Strange, because if you were only to read this website, you would assume that Cameron has played a blinder and Clegg has been awful. Funny thing, perception…
Habib Butt I was too young to fully understand the fall of Thatcher. But those of you who can, was it like this, when Thatcher fell?
I was surprised when she announced that she would resign, because I expected that she would try to cling on desperately to the last minute, even if it meant going down to glorious defeat and being replaced by Heseltine. I think she had more awareness than Brown does that resigning was a good thing for the party.
It was as bad in the sense that the Cabinet told her that she would have to resign (otherwise they would).
It was better in the sense that she was ousted because of differences in policy (relations with the EU, the poll tax etc.) whereas Brown is being challenged because of basic general incompetence. The process of ousting Thatcher happened relatively suddenly and unexpectedly within a few weeks*, whereas the problem with Brown has been dormant and brewing for literally years.
* (e.g. I thought Tony Marlow MP was bonkers in early November 1990 when he said that there would be a new PM before Christmas)
—————
Sunil Did Bernard Ingham actually say “Where’s the central mike?” I saw the clip a few years back (ie. not a memory from 1990 itself!) but can’t seem to Google the quote.
He just said “Where’s the microphone?”. He had arranged for a proper microphone stand to be set up so that Mrs Thatcher could speak with some authority, but it must have been moved aside by someone. Hence the farce of John Sargeant thinking that his own microphone was the fount of all wisdom.
—————–
Mike Sole How are the Euro seats allocated? In SE there are 10 seats. Does that mean that you need at least 10% of the vote to get a seat and then it is guaranteed?
Here is an explanation I prepared earlier:
Unfortunately, when people (or newspapers, or websites) explain how d’Hondt divisors work, they often describe it in terms of “divide by one more than the number of seats already won”, or in terms of dividing the number of votes each time after a seat has been allocated.
If you are not fully familiar with it and used to it, it is much easier to do all the divisions first, and then allocate seats afterwards. For example, here is the result for the South East region in 2004, which had 10 seats:
1. Write down the parties along the top, and the number of votes for each party
http://i33.tinypic.com/20u7ugw.jpg
2. Write down the numbers 1,2,3,4,5 and so on down the side of the paper
3. Divide the number of votes at the top of the column by the number at the left hand side
http://i35.tinypic.com/2dbqfjo.jpg
4. Cross off the highest number in the table to allocate the first seat
(in this case, the Conservative Party)
http://i34.tinypic.com/5×7815.jpg
5. Cross off the next highest number to allocate the 2nd seat
(in this case, the UKIP)
http://i35.tinypic.com/31340sg.jpg
6. Continue crossing off the highest numbers until all the seats have been allocated
http://i37.tinypic.com/2d9z3bp.jpg
Thusly, if there had been 11 seats instead of 10, the Conservative party would have won a 5th seat; if there had only been 9, the Lib Dems would only have 1 seat instead of 2.
The highest number which hasn’t been crossed out is 155,274, and the lowest number which has been crossed out is 169,171. So it could be said that about 160,000 is the quota, or the threshold of votes, needed for each seat to be elected. When you have got used to it and used it a few times, it is sometimes fairly easy to guesstimate the quota and work out the number of seats for each party without necessarily having to do the full divisions each time. For example, the result in Wales (with a total of 4 seats) in 2004 was
Lab 297,810
Con 177,771
PC 159,888
UKIP 96,667
LD 96,116
The fact that there are 4 seats available means that it is easy to spot immediately that the quota is about 100,000 votes, and that the seats will be Lab 2, Con 1, PC 1, UKIP 0 and LD 0.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_hannan/blog/2009/06/03/conservative_meps_will_be_in_more_respectable_company_outside_the_epp
I see that Nick and Tim are ecstatic about the possible rise of UKIP. The amusing thing about that is that ir proves Labours argument that we should be “at the heart of europe”(i.e. Euro subservience) has been totally lost.
251 - Could you direct me to the polling evidence that the Lib Dems have gained ground in the polls?
Hannan really is an idiot.
254- You think so? Sounds more like electoral politics taking pride of place over ideology.
251. I think Cameron played a blinder at the beginning and then faded a bit over Kirkbride giving Clegg a chance to overtake.
256 Why? because he makes you and Tim look like hypocritical liars
250 - Thanks for your concern, but hopefully I’ve arranged my bets on the Euros so that only an excellent performance by Labour or the Tories means I lose.
Given the present leadership of the big two, I think thats unlikely don’t you?
@256:
Your rapid rebuttal system is very impressive.
I didn’t see PMQs today. Was Brown’s performance really as stupendously brilliant as various Labour bods on TV keep saying?
260 - Sounds a pretty sensible betting strategy. I wouldn’t have spent the money on the Lib Dems, but it doesn’t sound as if you spent much and who knows, they might be the wild card in the mix for once.
254: Not thrilled by UKIP - they could hardly be further from my views on Europe or immigration, though I don’t detest them as I detest the BNP. My comment that they’re doing well and could even dream of coming first was just an observation. Saying it might happen doesn’t mean I want it to, or make it more likely, but on a betting site it’s worth pointing out the possible outcomes.
Just seen the front pages on News 24… Flying nokias for certain, terrible for Labour on the day of voting.
262. No , they are talking rubbish , he stuttered throughout , giving his stock answers , doing something , taking action , etc.
261 Maybe its rapidness, its rebuttal ability though seems to be primary school level.
254. Indeed what they don’t want to consider is that the Greens will be to Labour what UKIP are to the Conservatives with one difference. The Greens seem more active in domestic elections which suggests that Labour won’t be lending votes to the Greens they will be losing them to the Greens for good……
262. It wasn’t brilliant, but solid enough really.
260. Big two = Oldthink
264 you could come fifth Nick - thats another possible outcome.
Tory 28
UKIP 16
Lib Dems 15
Green 13
Labour 12
Something like that
262 Robusticus. Brown was OK but in the sense that we are used to him not answering the question, conflating arguements and making the various standard “do nothing Tories” lines. I also suspect that Cameron didn’t really put the boot as this might of backfired and had the effect of getting the Labour Party to close ranks around him.
262 - Don’t be silly, of course he was as bad as ever. Never answer a question, tractor stats, DO NOTHING, TORY CUTS, Cameron isn’t asking me a question on my crib sheet…..
Cameron wasn’t great, failed to really hit the massive lumbering target that is Gordo, but still got his sound bites on the media (which seems like it is all that is important), and Clegg was his improved self (but like Gordo it is a from a low base).
Poor Gordon.
Poor, dear, sweet Gordon.
Would any Labour supporters like a hug?
265 - Labour are going to get crucified tomorrow. I suspect that the last couple of days shenanigans will have really demoralised what’s left of the activist base.
mandelson trying to lash out at the media, blaming them for ramping things up, unless I’m very much mistaken.
Tomorrows front pages:
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/thursday_4_june_2009.html
251. Both Cameron and Clegg have been doing very well recently. It’s just the Conservatives have an extra problem in that they’re one of the big two institutional parties with the expenses scandal going on, and they also have to suddenly deal with right-wing competition that only springs into vibrancy when the euro elections roll round.
262 Brown triumphs is the spin, because he would be more likely a goner if he was reported to have tanked. Cameron didn’t go for the kill. a long drawn out death is better than a quick humane despatch politically, but got his key message through an in the media,. Brown managed to thump the despatch box less than usual and otherwise was “taking action” while Conservatives “did nothing” and had “nothing to say”.
145 Sean
“Think back to 1995, our worst ever year.”
Wait till we have another Tory government. Many of the people who post here have such short memories, and read little political history. So soon do the loved become hated, and the memory of the once hated becomes diminished. The sacrifices made by my father’s generation so quickly forgotten, the Nazis come creeping back.
Dad was on the streets of the east end fighting the blackshirts; now there are those who will vote Nazi just 64 years after the last war.
A leftist party will be in power in Jack W’s lifetime. Let us pray God it will not be the hated Torylite NuLabour.
274 - I’d like someone to offer odds that Camerons Tories do worse than Howards and Hagues.
Is there a copy of this letter doing the rounds anywhere on the web?
IAlso, is it possible that Brown might be gone before a resuffle?
Clegg on Newsnight in a few minutes.
279 - It was a big tactical mistake (if that was the Conservatives’ intention) not to go in for the kill. Gordon Brown will go. It is in the Conservatives’ and David Cameron’s interest to be seen to have despatched him. That now will not happen.
264. UKIP are probably closer to my own views on a range of things, however, only the Conservatives can throw your horrible government out. My heart is tempted with UKIP, but my head says Conservative, at all costs.
In surprising news, Michael Crick said David Cameron flunked PMQ’s until the end.
Newsnight on Cameron at PMQs:- “he flunked it” maybe that was deliberate.
“Gordon Brown faces more trouble this week after four stormy days”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6426849.ece
Heading off, won’t be around tomorrow as am busy electioning!!
274 - POGWGAS
282 -
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/labour_backbenchers_letter_to_gordon_brown.html
278 - I did like Johnsons description of Cameron and Clegg after the maximum mortgage/maximum moralising that the pair have been doing.
The Self Righteous Brothers.
Now if only Gordon could be so quick on his feet.
The Labour MPs taunting Nick Clegg when he’s speaking the plain truth might make them feel good in the chamber, but it looks ridiculous to the man on the street.
The Telegraph now say … “This is marginally down from the 27 per cent the Tories scored at the last European election in 2004, suggesting some supporters are deserting to Ukip. ”
This shows to me they are desperate to say everything they can to undermine the Conservative cause.
Quite pathetic. One think this current scandal has shown is the clear anti Tory partiality of the Telegraph. Its willingness to accept pro Brown briefings show how compromised it is in its traditional ethos.
Crick is on Newnight now doing his best to bum up Labour.
I’ve only seen three front pages, Indie: Labour MPs circulate Email urging Brown to quit, FT: Brown fights for survival and DT: Brown fights for his life.
What are they hinting at, any suggestions?
Taurean excreata from Michael Crick. Is he going to be another ‘man in a white suit.
If Cameron flunked it, the final clip did enough to show tractorman up.
It is rather odd that Blears who appears to be incapable of paying the correct amounts of CGT gets the chop, whilst Darling, Hoon, Straw and Brown still hang on.
288 - Have fun James
Cameron does have a posh problem. I don’t think it’s that relevant to voters except those who’d never vote Tory anyway but it bothers Cameron. You can see it in interviews and such - puts him off balance and on the defensive and that undercuts his performance.
292 - Your view about the Telegraph can be disproved with one link:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/local-elections/5438945/David-Cameron-can-lead-us-out-of-the-mess-were-in.html
290. It was a nice quip. Then again, he could have included Brown, whose own self-righteousness is one of his least winning traits.
What a tool Stephen Pound is, according to him, Labour have never got rid of a Leader, we have never thrown a leader out of a window. Has he never heard of Anthony Blair.
299. He is a spanner. Has Pound reported the computer hacking to the police yet?
Labour will have a leadership election as the country struggles with recession, the country will never forgive them.
Johnson needs to tell Brown to go to the palace - its the only way out.
290. I think we could do with a bit of righteousness in parliament, after the self-serving trough-snouters we have now.
Do Stuart Bell and Stephen Pound get a fee for every time they toady up to Brown/Martin/etc????
299 What about the first Labour PM? seem to recall that he was expelled, though perhaps Pound is technically correct in that he he wasn’t deposed as leader, just that his party deserted him and left him leading the rump which ceased to be Labour.
298 Nice quip? The Self-Righteous Brothers? Not really…just means he used to watch Harry Enfield
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqPAuotjkM4
Michael Crick: “The chief whip, Nick Gri…er, Nick Brown…”
Jesus, Nick Brown is naming and shaming on the eve of election - Milburn, Byers and some backbenchers fingered.
According to Crick, Nick Brown has named, Stephen Byers, Alan Milburn, Graham Stringer and Graham Allen, and Paul Farrelly as ringleaders of the plot to oust Brown
307
So its a bunfight royal…
Don’t know if someone posted:
“John Reid, former home secretary, is not expected to return to government. Mr Brown’s team insist his visit to Number 10 on Tuesday night was “to discuss football”.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/321b424a-5082-11de-9530-00144feabdc0.html
Front pages news 24 in 1 minute with George Jones
Nice quote from Polly sticking the knife in. Something along the lines of Thatcher still had a lot of fans when she was forced out. There aren’t many Brownites out there.
Woodward looks like one of the undead, brooding in the gloom.
Tomorrow is going to be such an anti-climax with no results.
Shaun “Time to defect back” Woodward reckons MPs’ families have been hurt by their kin fiddling their expenses. Diddums!
Ha, ha. Woodward throwing a strop after getting beaten up by Emily Maitlis.
Interesting to see how betfair has subsided to 1.45 for a 2010 election. Today has been a good day for trading.
To put it into context, the excellent George Jones has said he has never seen a government implode like this, in all his years covering politics.
Woodward promoting child labour…
Woodward’s just thrown Obama asking Brown for advice about the recesssion into the mix.
If Darling refuses to budge, what realistically can Brown do, taking the current situation into account?
316 Really. I thought she couldn’t batter fish.
321 Drop him from the Cabinet - therein lies the problem for GB.
Good to see Milburn behind this, some real organisation.
Hmmmm, are the BBC endorsing the Lib Dems now?!
320 wasn’t that incredible? “That’s why Obama came to the G20, to see what Gordon Brown was doing to sort out the recession”!!!
I’m sorry, but spin is one thing, a shameless lie is another. Will these people never learn?
Gordon Brown’s idea of policy is to lie and smear.
The Tories in a show of bi-partisanship supported government efforts to deal with the banking crisis. Yet Brown LIED that the Tories would have done nothing on the banks.
Brown makes similar claims about unemployment and the economy. Brown is a liar. He is a smearer. He is a moron. Seeing the fat ugly Woodward on TV claiming that Brown showed that he was dealing with issues, just shows how low and unpleasant Labour really are.
Devoid of intelligence, principles, ability, honesty and vision: Brown’s Labour
Francis Elliot has four scenarios (scenarii?) in the Telegraph article:
• Gordon Brown announces he is stepping down at the end of the summer after a disaster in local and European elections. A leadership contest is held in September. The new leader is crowned at Labour’s conference and announces that he will hold a general election in the first week in November.
• He is forced out before recess, but senior Cabinet figures, including Alan Johnson, are tainted. This leads others, including Ed Balls, to throw their hats in the ring to succeed him, leading to a bloody leadership battle. The decision is announced at conference, but attempts to heal the party wounds fail. Divided, they lose just as badly as they would have done with Gordon Brown in charge.
• The damaged Prime Minister limps on, believing the public will reward him as the green shoots of recovery are just around the corner. Labour gives up the fight and donors desert, with the unions providing almost all the funding.
• He calls an early election for the second week in October, denying opponents the chance to challenge him. The move wrong foots party members — and David Cameron — who are surprised he has taken such a bold decision.
I suspect 4 or less likely 3. We may have passed the time for 1 or 2. I just feel he’s too stubborn, pig headed - use whatever description you want - It’s just not in him to walk away from something he’s fought this long and hard for.
This going to be a real Gotterdamerung climax for Brown. Time to swot up on your Wagner Ring Cycle.
323. C.
Can he, what would the consequences be?
321. Leave him in place and deny ever intending to move him?
321. I think Brown is going to have to say no to his darling and keep Darling.
Clegg doing his holier than thou act again. Someone should tell him about his party not being exactly whiter than white.
Why do I feel the need to punch Woodward?
Clegg playing a f*cking blinder on Newsnight.
Harriet Harmon lends her support to a ‘troubled’ Prime Minister.
http://tinyurl.com/ogc4f5
321- Plant a story in the papers hinting that his wife is mad, or gay, or really a man.
Shaun Woodward said that the Prime Minister hasn’t decided if he is going to reshuffle yet.
This confirms that he is going to back down from sacking Darling and Milliband.
What is Johnson tainted by?
328 - Tim B, well it lasts over 24hrs.
Lol. Farage. Popcorn time.
Good to see the Daily Star taking the Air France plane crash seriously…. “AIR FRANCE JET SWALLOWED BY BLACK HOLE”
338. I think the idea is that in the scenario of Brown being forced out, Johnson might be “tainted” if he were thought to have wielded the knife, or something like that.
Farage is such a comedy figure, I wish spitting image was still about, his puppet would be identikit
327. I second everything you said Ken. Brown is the most shameless liar I can recall in modern British political life.
A communication from The Bunker, and The Man: (from Next Left)
Gordon Brown tonight sent this email to Labour Party members, with the simple subject line ‘humbling’.
–
Dear [--]
Yesterday Ray Collins and Alicia Kennedy emailed you to ask for your help in paying for our final leaflets of this election campaign.
I have been humbled by your response. You raised more than we’ve ever raised online in 1 day before.
Also humbling is the fact that hundreds of members from across the country have used the virtual phone bank during this campaign to make over 20,000 phone calls to target voters.
And the thousands of you who have turned out week in week out to deliver leaflets and knock on doors for Labour.
And I know that you have done all of this in spite of the fact that you feel angered and frustrated about the events of the last few weeks.
As I’ve spoken to members at campaign events across the country you’ve told me why – because you know that despite all of the frustrations we still need to be out there making the case for Labour because on every choice, our Party’s values put us on the right side of the argument while the Tories find themselves hopelessly wrong.
On the economy our commitment to investing to grow our way out of the recession – by helping people keep and find jobs - is opposed by a Conservative Party that believes that cuts and leaving people to fend for themselves is the answer.
On public services, while we see the need to invest in lower NHS waiting times, in extra nursery places and in guaranteeing places in education, training or apprenticeships, the Conservatives see only budgets to be cut.
And on crime, housing and Europe, our commitment to be tough, to help those in need and to engage to get the best deal for Britain are met with the same old Tory responses.
I don’t think there has ever been a time when the choice between our Party and our opponents has been clearer or more important.
So as you continue to make this choice clear to voters on the doorstep tomorrow and beyond please know that I am so grateful for all that our members do for our Party – you are the lifeblood of our Party and yet again you have not let us down.
Thank you
Gordon
“There were signs last night of divisions within the female group. Friends of Ms Smith made clear that she believed that Ms Blears was responsible for leaking the name. “It’s more than a belief,” said one close ally.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6427039.ece
341 Appalling and disgraceful.
Those options don’t seem to include a coronation and an attempt to tough it out. That is clearly what they have in mind. I don’t think it will wash - but then I don’t think they are thinking at the moment. All except Hatty. She will be.
EDIT: Sorry to 328
338. Presumably being disloyal to Brown.
328. There is a 5th possible scenario - Brown ‘does a Major’ and announces a leadership contest in which he is a contestant.
319. That’s what I heard, too.
Alistair Darling cannot stay as Chancellor. He is seen as a crook by voters. Actually everything he’s done is within the rules, but it still looks dreadful. You cannot have him in place - as the guy setting taxes when people think he’s been a little light fingered with expenses. It will constantly undermine any attempt to put expenses behind Labour. It’s even worse than allowing Stuart Bell, the moron who tried to prevent expenses coming out, appearing on TV. It’s like waving a flag at Labour supporters saying “We’re the party of crooks who wanted to hush up expenses”.
351. Yes, Darling is messy. It’s just calamitous to have a crooked Chancellor. Yet Darling is, by all accounts, refusing to be moved. Brown is too weak to sack him. So he may stay, stinking up the place with his chisellin’ and cheatin’.
Right bedtime - 6am start tomorrow, 10,000 Good Morning leaflets to be delivered consistuency wide, full telling and knock up campaign in our 3 5* target seats (one held, one labour and one tory) - I love election day!
Clearly Brown’s henchmen have been drilled to use the phrase ‘a Prime Minister at the top of his game’. (I’ve heard Woodward, Mandelson and Johnson utter it exactly this evening and Crick did a variation on the theme.)
Steve Richards just talking about the refuseniks who might refuse to move .
Evening all.
Well, this is entertaining. A minute-by-minute putsch all day, with Brown clearly about to go, followed this evening by signs of fight back from Brown, and rebels scattering.
Mary Ridell:
The rebels’ problem is still that there is no obvious successor who could do a better job, even in normal circumstances. In the midst of recession and constitutional crisis, is Alan Johnson really the man to steer Britain, and the government, to salvation? Even those lukewarm about Mr Brown’s record have their doubts.
…
Mr Brown will fight to the death. Don’t bet, even now, against him winning.
[By 'to the death', I think she means 'to the last minister'.]
Clearly Alan Johnson is not the man to steer Britain and the government to salvation, but we all knew that. You’d have thought that any half-sane Labour plotter would have worked that out for themselves months ago. But no, we’re back to square one.
In betting terms: I’d now say Evens between the two possible outcomes of Brown staggering on wounded, and Johnson emerging as a charisma-free leader of a fragmented party.
Amazing that you can still get nearly a 50% return on your money by betting on a Conservative majority.
327/344. I third it, but to be honest you only scratch the surface. He’s one of the most unpleasant characters ever to hold high office in Britain.
354. Yes, I noticed that.
Trouble is the top of his game is not very high up at all. Brentford (worthy League Two Champions) rather than Barcelona. That PMQ was no more than a pass, on easy questions. If that’s the top of his game, he won’t win any prizes.
Newsnight Scotland running what sounds like Brown’s obituary.
“After Hazel, is Flint next? I’ll only back you if you give me a top job, minister to tell Brown”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1190697/After-Hazel-Flint-Ill-you-job-Europe-Minister-tell-Brown.html
339 - and at the end after 4 operas and 24 (or more usually about 18) hours there you are - still at the bottom of the river
348 & 349 - yes those are options, but I think the ‘coronation and tough it out’ will kill them when they eventually have to call an election as people will feel even more used than they do now.
There’s a huge difference between leading your party into an election and losing, and standing as the incumbent leader of your party and getting resoundingly rejected by the members of the party you ostensibly love. I can see him going for an election, but not a leadership battle in his party. He fought for years to avoid it so why should he do it now when he cannot win. He wants to go out on his own terms.
356. One thing thats absolutely certain, IMO, is that if Labour want to survive the next election as the main opposition they are going to have to follow through with what they’ve started and remove Brown. If that means a fight to the political death, then that how it’ll have to be, but Brown is now too damaged and weakened to allow him to carry on.
Pretty certain the goblins could make Badger cry if they wanted.
Newsnight Scotland amusing viewing. Iain McWhirter looks like a kid at Christmas. if Beeb Scotland think its over, its over.
More sleazy sleaze
Anne Cryer and son John, who were both MPs, claimed parliamentary allowances while designating the same flat as their second home. The flat was owned by other members of their family.
Mr Cryer, who represented the Essex constituency, 15 miles from Westminster, until he lost the seat in the 2005 election, completed his second home claim forms without including an address.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5431882/MPs-expenses-Anne-Cryer-and-son-John-both-claimed-for-flat-owned-by-her-daughter.html
Both claiming for the same flat owned by their daughter, that is up with there in the top troughing is it not? Plus does he need a 2nd home? And to cap it all off, trying to hide the fact to boot!
One for the body language watchers
Interesting facial tik from Balls at 15:07 when Brown mentions the expenses system.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006nldz
365. Oracle. Actually far less sleazy in detail. Assuming that they stopped doing so after the rule change on renting from family, it looks pretty OK to me.
357. The continual drip-drip-drip of small lies, half truths, triple counting, dubious comparisons, pleading ignorance and humbug have been a hallmark of Brown’s career in government. Brown’s repeated claims of piety and honesty are the icing on the cake.
362. “One thing thats absolutely certain, IMO, is that if Labour want to survive the next election as the main opposition they are going to have to follow through with what they’ve started”
Absolutely. I think that’s the one central truth to come out of today’s events: they have to push ahead now or drown.
From public service to public self-service.
And wait, theirs more,
MPs’ expenses: Alice Mahon’s £20,000 loan for new doors, paid off by the public…
Notes on her files show that by 2004 officials considered that the arrangement was not within the rules, but because it had been originally approved, they decided that they were obliged to continue.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5431880/MPs-expenses-Alice-Mahons-20000-loan-for-new-doors-paid-off-by-the-public.html
WTF!!!! They realised it was wrong and against the rules, but never mind, carry on.
Why is Flint so important?
368 Name me one political party that tells the whole truth. For piety, dubious comparisons you can’t do better than a LibDem bar chart leaflet.
And wait, theres more,
MPs’ expenses: Alice Mahon’s £20,000 loan for new doors, paid off by the public…
Notes on her files show that by 2004 officials considered that the arrangement was not within the rules, but because it had been originally approved, they decided that they were obliged to continue….
A sufferer from age-related macular degeneration, which has left her bind in one eye and with significant sight loss in the other, Mrs Mahon said that she let out the house in order to pay for her treatment after her request for NHS care was turned down.
..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5431880/MPs-expenses-Alice-Mahons-20000-loan-for-new-doors-paid-off-by-the-public.html
WTF!!!! They realised it was wrong and against the rules, but never mind, carry on.
NHS at its best! Allowing a Labour MP to go blind!!! Bevan would be turning in his grave.
371. AnnaK. Supposedly the third girl in the plot. A lot of papers are saying one more Minister going would finish Gord. Flint is seen as an up and comer but has failed to be promoted.
Brown won’t do a “back me or sack me” like John Major did, Brown has no courage.
It seems clear he wants to cling on by his fingertips to the bitter end and will listen to no one. more and more of the cabinet will peel away, he will be left with nobodies and also-rans. he’s nuts. the final collapse will be even more spectacular when it comes.
This whole episode…lets face it, Brown’s personal premiership has lurched from crisis to crisis for over a year now… is much worse than the Margaret Thatcher final days. we’ve had “final months” here . and still it goes on. ministers are resigning, chaos ensuing, and still people are saying ” if just one more minister resigns, if just one more person …. face it. Brown is going to have to have the whole cabinet resign en masse before he wakes up.
maybe more tomorrow!
372. Maybe there aren’t any, but Brown is the worst offender in my book.
And wait, theres more,
MPs’ expenses: Alice Mahon’s £20,000 loan for new doors, paid off by the public…
Notes on her files show that by 2004 officials considered that the arrangement was not within the rules, but because it had been originally approved, they decided that they were obliged to continue….
A sufferer from age-related macular degeneration, which has left her bind in one eye and with significant sight loss in the other, Mrs Mahon said that she let out the house in order to pay for her treatment after her request for NHS care was turned down.
..
WTF!!!! They realised it was wrong and against the rules, but never mind, carry on.
NHS at its best! Allowing a Labour MP to go blind!!! Bevan would be turning in his grave.
371 She isnt, but right now she is. Gordo cannot afford more resignations. The amount of political shenanigans going on will be the stuff of legend when the history books are written.
375. glw. Nick Griffin is on a par with Gordo.
365 - Ken, the daugther bit isn’t a huge deal, in the same way that aspect of Cash story wasn’t either (for me anyway).
However, they double dipped! They claimed the same flat! And one of them tried to deliberately hide the fact to the fess office!
378 Ken you are an “idiot” (C) Ken from pb 2009
The back me or sack me tactic would be terrible for Brown. His best defence right now is inertia in the face of difficult obstacles to get a leadership challenge. He’d be an idiot to do that in. There isn’t a candidate that is significantly better than Brown that it’d be worth forcing a second unelected PM on the country. If he holds his nerve, he can stay.
371. If Flint goes, it’s game over. Any other Cabinet minister in the next 24 hours would lead to the same result, it’s just that she’s the most likely.
369 - Exactly. The problem is that somebody has to stick their head above the parapet, show some courage and provide LEADERSHIP, trusting that others will follow. They need to have the courage of their convictions. Unfortunately they don’t.
On the other hand it’s quite possible that some of them will have convictions of a different kind in the not too distant future.
For days we have been talking about Gordo being the Tories greatest electoral asset. Today at PMQs Cameron didn’t go in for the kill, Labour supporters cheer, Gordo survives. Now they are complaining Cameron was crap. Looks like in fact he played a blinder
Good Evening,
Its disappointing that we don’t have an eve of poll ICM to compare the You Gov to. If I were a Labour MP I’d be looking at 10 + 15 + 16 = 41 ( Lab/GRN/LD ) versus 26 + 18 = 44 (Con/UKIP)
The liberal left can have a future in a post recession world with a Conservative government making the necessery public spending cuts. However Labour will have the fight of its life to be the lead franchise on the left.
It is essential that this coup doesn’t fail. This weekend is the last chance to get Gordon out and renew before an election. If they dither again then catastrophe will result followed by a balkanised civil war for the future of the left.
If Nick Griffin gets elected on Sunday, I wonder if he will personally thank Gordo for making it possible…
373:Thanks, I still dont get it, seems like a nobody to me.
380. Jonathan. Nick Griffin lies a lot. I never said that they lied about the same things. Nick Griffin pretends not to be a racist thug stirring people up against muslims, but does so in private. Gordon lies about his opponents and his own achievements. I’m saying they both lie a lot.
381 - I agree with you 100%, Socrates. To win they have to topple him. For Brown to win all he has to do is survive.
378 - Get a grip, Ken.
Well somebody is out to get Carswell, Telegraph really stitching him up,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5431746/MPs-expenses-Douglas-Carswell-claimed-700-in-expenses-for-love-seat.html
Then check out the picture of what it actually is in the Mail article
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1190470/Ex-education-secretary-Estelle-Morris-claimed-thousands-refurbish-flat-months-stepping-down.html
Goes on about “Love Seat”, and obviously you think of one thing, then you find it was just a sofa!
In the end, i still reakon two of three senior members of the Cabinet will call on Gord and tell him his times up - Probably Straw, Mandy and maybe Harman. They will tell him to save himself the indignity of whats about to happen to him and to save the party a bloody civil war, that he must stand down. I would expect this some time early next week.
371 Domino effect. If one folds, they all will.
EDIT; If Craig’s slip of the tongue was correct - her old boss may be at the bottom of some of this - Reid].
388 Not your finest moment Ken. Stop digging.
379. Oracle. She paid rent, he bought groceries. Hardly double dipping.
387. She’s a Cabinet member…that’s a headline in itself as shown by the wall to wall coverage today.
392. You think Brown has a long enough or close enough relationship with either Mandy or Harman to listen to them?
395 - Sorry Ken, I apologise, just checked the claim amounts, fallen for the Telegraph smear / stitch up tactics. They have done over this pair and Carswell.
Although, still not happy about the fact he hid his address, however overall not a story at all!
Why do socialists talk like football fans? Full of self perceived wisdom and genius whilst actually thinking and talking utter crap, asks my wife.
Re. 392 and then following that, I would say a leader by coronation sometime late June, followed by an election being called early September for October 1st 2009. The Conservatives had better get their manifesto ready!
394. Jonathan. Not digging. It’s true. In terms of their relationship with the truth - Griffin and Gordo are about on a par. I’m not comparing their policies or anything else.
May 2010 is back to 10/11 with Ladbrokes. That seems way too long to me.
336. I think they have something a little more concrete on Darling than vague insinuations of a lesbian madwoman in his attic.
396 She’s not, she’s a Minister of State (although she may attend Cabinet meetings)
397. I don’t know. He’ll have to. Realistically this can’t end any other way than Brown going. Its just the manner of the way he goes, I think.
Labour MP’s calling for Brown to go in email :
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Gordon-Brown-Under-Pressure-Email-Circulating-Among-Labour-MPs-Calling-For-PM-To-Step-Down/Article/200906115295226?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15295226_Gordon_Brown_Under_Pressure%3A_Email_Circulating_Among_Labour_MPs_Calling_For_PM_To_Step_Down
384 Scott P
Indeed. Cameron has an incredibly tight rope to walk on. I thought he handled PMQs today about as well as he could. Not too boorish (that would be a huge turnout in the current climate), and fairly soft on Brown.
From his perspective, the ideal situation is to engineer a situation where Gordon Brown calls an election in October. By then the heat of expenses will have calmed; the Conservatives will have laid out more policy; UKIP and the Greens will fade from peoples’ minds.
For the good of the country Brown can’t be allowed to stay too long. A snap election now would finish Labour, but the Conservatives wouldn’t capitalize as much as they would in ‘normal’ circumstances.
The worst case scenario is that a relatively orderly stepping-down, a short selection contest between Harman and Johnson, and then going to the polls in late this year or in spring next year.
401 Can’t say I am not disappointed. I thought you were supposed to be bright.
Sun ordering a vote for the Tories tomorrow,
vote Tory - the one party that still holds out the hope of letting you say No to Brussels.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/244723/The-Sun-Says.html
387. I don’t think Flint is important because most people don’t know who she is.
391. I have a love seat. It is a one and a half person chair - two if you snuggle and is otherwise known as a snuggler.
The dog likes to sleep on ours.
392 - Yes that may happen, and he will tell them where they can put themselves. The ‘deputation’ is not part of the leader removal process, merely a ‘gentleman’s club’ (had to get that in) way of politely asking the incumbent to leave now rather than be pushed. They have no power, merely politeness. Gordon ‘gets’ power, but he’s probably not big on the politeness.
In 1934 Ernst Rohm was taken to prison in the night of the long knives and had a gun put on the table in his cell. After a few minutes when he did not do what was expected, an SS man did it for him.
The deputation can do the equivalent of handing the condemned man a gun, but if he does not use it they are powerless to do anything about it.
(not comparing Labour to the SS - OK? Historical facts from memory.E&OE)
401 - Griffin is a H*locaust denier.
Stop being a fool.
408. The way things are going I can see Cameron being in power by early October. The Sun may well get their referendum after all.
The EU must be watching this crisis with growing concern?
401 - Griffin lies about the Nazi extermination of the Jews
Stop being a fool.
Woodward was 1/2 gibbering wreck, 1/2 robotic spinning of the Mandy line tonight on Newsnight… talking about children losing their jobs, top of his game etc etc
After PMQs I thought their blossoming ‘relationship’ mean he was to be give a big job but after tonights performance, the man is out of his depth now, a John Reid fight-dog he ain’t.
“More devastating still, the attack did not come from the usual suspects - the group of disaffected backbench opponents and former Cabinet ministers led by ex-Home Secretary Charles Clarke.
Instead, it came from Brown’s inner circle. Alistair Darling, one of his closest allies in politics, is the man wielding the dagger.
Darling made it clear he will not be moved from the Treasury, while David Miliband refused to budge from the Foreign Office.
Brown’s only chance of survival now is to admit defeat in this battle of wills. But that would mean, at best, he faces humiliation.
At worst, he will be destroyed - and, at present, that looks the most likely option”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1190706/PETER-OBORNE-The-day-Susan-Boyle-rang-Gordon-check-health.html
414 - Did he bring his butler with him?
Brown’s offer: vote Labour, vote mayhem
Old Labour has gone, Blairism has faded away and Brownism has turned out not to exist. What does the party stand for?
…
though Mr Cameron has done well not to fall of his bike in the storm about expenses, there’s still a wobble to the ride. He prays that Mr Brown will crawl from the wreckage this weekend, still Prime Minister, and carry on. There’s a fair chance his prayer will be answered.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6426547.ece
“Don’t lay it all on the leader”
By David Blunkett
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/03/gordon-brown-david-blunkett-reform
Richard Tyndall I don’t vote for parties and want them to have as little as possible to do with the electoral system. I vote for an individual constituency representative. PR in all the forms suggested here would deny me that opportunity and is therefore undemocratic.
STV would preserve your ability to vote for an individual constituency representative, and would diminish the power of the political parties. Don’t smear STV with the blemishes of other types of PR.
————
alex the “anomalies” are as much to do with significantly higher turnout in Conservative areas. You can’t design a system around predicted turnout.
You could if you wanted to. It wouldn’t be fair, but you could. When Labour won local elections in Croydon, despite being second in terms of votes, two-thirds of the disproportionality was due to differential turnout and only one-third was due to different electorate sizes.
Madasafish “It is more important that MPs represent coherent areas than a specific number of people.”
Yes, right..
So I live in Staffordshire Moorlands consisting of Newcastle under Lyme (E Stoke), Biddulph(N Stoke ), Leek (NW Stoke ) and Cheadle (about 30 miles away due South of Stoke). It makes no geographical sense… Cheadle is nearer Uttoxeter and Stoke than Leek or Biddulph…
That’s the whole point alex was making: you are agreeing with him.
Richard Tyndall As far as the debate on PR goes I have said on here on anumber of occasions that I see the benefit of STV. But not in multi-member constituencies. All my experiences of MMCs both in the UK and overseas have shown them to be a recipe for poor representation and stitch ups. STV I can go for absolutely. But only with a single member for each constituency.
You have contradicted yourself. Multi-member constituencies are an intrinsic and inherent ingredient of STV. If you “can absolutely go for” STV, then you also by definition absolutely go for multi-member constituencies. If you want single-member constituencies, then you would need AV, which is not at all proportional. If you don’t care about it being proportional (as is clear from your messages), then fine; but it’s not STV.
AnnaK (previous thread 301.) 267: How could they get away with not opening postal votes. If somebody went to the trouble of voting they cant disregard it because other people couldn’t be bothered
Presumably it means that the number of postal votes is so small that they don’t need to process them before polling day, and will have enough time to do them afterwards.
——————-
Simon St Clare (previous thread 367.) wrote
John Loony, you are to be congratulated on a most impressive list. Shot by one of his own, seems most likely!
Erm, it was meant to be one of my brilliant poems, not a “list”…… if you think it was just a list then perhaps it was one of my less brilliant ones…
308 / 309 - got my popcorn ready…….. settles back to watch the fun
410 - You’re lucky Sally. My dog - 3 year old German Shepherd named Heidi - sleeps on the bed next to me. It’s a king size bed, but her head always seems to end up in the small of my back as she stretches horizontally across the bed.
Even putting a pillow on her side of the bed only works part of the time….
My daughter says I’m a big softie with my dog - but what does she know?
409 It doesn’t matter that the public don’t know her. It is her place on the chess board in the party that counts. She was Reid’s loyal apprentice and everyone knows he and Brown loathe each other. c
She has caused Gordon trouble before. It is not the case that if she goes, they all go. It is more the case that if she can be bought off, the others will lose their nerve.
“The Labour WAGs: The Blair Babes who became the Women Against Gordon
Jacqui Smith, Hazel Blears, Beverley Hughes, Patricia Hewitt, Caroline Flint, Margaret Hodge and Tessa Jowell were at their core; the most highly-promoted - some would argue over-promoted - beneficiaries of the controversial ‘women-only’ candidate shortlists which saw 101 female Labour MPs elected in Tony Blair’s May 1997 general election victory.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1190711/The-Labour-WAGs-The-Women-Against-Gordon.html
Good luck to all standing tomorrow, and if you’re one of Gordon’s chums you’re going to need it.
421 ‘what does she know?’
YOU.
421. That a dog sleeps on your chair does not mean that it does not also sleep on your bed.
“Jacqui Smith, Hazel Blears, Beverley Hughes, Patricia Hewitt, Caroline Flint, Margaret Hodge and Tessa Jowell were at their core; the most highly-promoted - some would argue over-promoted - beneficiaries of the controversial ‘women-only’ candidate shortlists which saw 101 female Labour MPs elected in Tony Blair’s May 1997 general election victory.
(…)
Blears knew Smith had privately signalled to Downing Street her intention to resign at the next Cabinet reshuffle. To co-ordinate both announcements would have inflicted the maximum damage on Brown.
Smith is said to have refused the pact. But when someone leaked details of Smith’s decision to quit, the finger of blame pointed at Blears - who, of course, is furious at the suggestion.”
Quite liking May’s PMQ arctic camouflage outfit.
Mrs Dale reporting the following,
EXCLUSIVE: John Reid told Brown He Should Resign
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
Oh to be a fly on the wall when this went down!!!!
424 - oh yes, she’s got me down to a tee.. she’s 21 going on 35
425 - you make it sound like a Buddhist chant, Michael!
428-Dale doesn’t known anything. Brown actually wanted to talk about football, and that’s why they met!
428. Do you think he said “Prime Minister, you must resign for the good of the party,” or was the language more colourful?
430: yes, I thought that “talked about football” line was hilarious. Just shows how completely inept the govt press operation is these days.
430 - couldn’t they do that over the phone?
428 If it is true. I can’t imagine Brown offering a job to his old foe when he has too many people to keep happy and too few jobs. Blunkett - yes. Reid - no.
433. Tim B. I think it was a job offer interview - so had to be done face-to-face. An offer to bury the hatchet, which Reid accepted by burying it in Gordo’s forehead.
431, I hope the language was as colourful and accented as the script to ‘Trainspotting’.
433-Brown thought it was an important subject and they should meet personally. I have no problem with that.
433. No, John Reid was keen to see Brown’s face when they discussed the ‘Scottish FA Cup final’.
Sky, Front Pages, quite good for Brown all things considered.
http://tinyurl.com/pkslug
434 - the way things are going it might not be too many people and too many jobs for long: it may become too many jobs and not enough people - in which case the game really will be over if he can’t form a governemnt.
Maybe it went a bit like this,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iEYs13UjnY
434. SallyC. Divide and rule. Also if Gordo was looking to fire lots of people (as a proper clean up would have meant), he would have had -
Darling, Blears, Hoon, Purnell, Smith, Straw to replace just in the cabinet. Mcnulty at the level below.
437 - Can I have some of what you’re drinking, please?
443-
428 - Poor Gordon Brown, I wish John Reid had said “I’ll support you, the same way you supported Tony Blair when he was PM”
442 I realised what is wrong with what I’d said moments after posting it!
Amazing days… I’m mostly reading PB.com instead of contributing, but I think it should be pointed out how excellent this site is. Being a social democrat, it’s a bit of masochistic pleasure right now, but beats traditional media any day!
I truly feel for the Labour supporters here (are there any?). My memories of the similar (if less disastrous) situation in 2005 in Germany are still fresh. Bit bored from learning for LSE exams, so here’s some rambling.
I think Labour need to accept that the decline has begun before Brown and that voters have watched it for a while. Labour was returned in 2005 for lack of better options. Now the economy has gone bust, the Tories have Cameron and Labour has, well, Brown. Labour’s growing tiredness might already have been enough, if not any of the three would have done the job, but it’s all three together. Blair’s final victory is that he had himself ousted just in time for Brown to take all the blame. Labour need to accept that the next GE is lost. If it they somehow managed to win, for what? More of this?
Once Labour accept that they will lose and that there are at least two terms of Tory government ahead, they can shift their strategy to damage limitation. To do this, Alan Johnson could become PM. He’s reluctant and that’s a good thing. Some of the troughers in the cabinet are already gone, the rest should follow. Appoint whatever steady hands there still are to the major ministerial posts and whatever talents Labour has to the minor ones. Then call a GE as soon as possible. Say that Labour accept their share of responsibilty for the political crisis at large, that Labour want to renew themselves, and that they accepts that this will most likely happen in opposition.
If Alan Johnson looks friendly (if dull) on TV and the cabinet manages to scrape by without major blunders until the GE while concentrating on writing a good manifesto (for the base) and sticking to a positive message, it will be much harder for Cameron to attack Labour instead of adopting a positive message himself. Because there won’t really be a horse race to begin with, the media are likely to treat Cameron more like an incumbent already and may start to ask for policy details. Which may hurt a bit.
I think most Labour activists have already accepted defeat (as SPD activists had in 2005), so fighting for Labour “to have a strong voice in parliament” alongside a caretaker cabinet they need not be ashamed of may make up for not really fighting to win. As with voters, the combination on pinning much of the blame to the ritually sacrificed Brown (best if he’s dragged from No10 kicking and screaming) and presenting Cameron as an incumbent (yet) without the glamour of actually being PM may reduce Labour’s losses to something tolerable.
It may seem like a somber decision now, but Labour will have to ask themselves if they realy feel another term in government would now be good for them - or for Britain, even if they had the chance. And senior Labour politicians should reflect on the question whether they want to end New Labour in a way that robs Britain of a proper opposition and leaves young Labour politicians with a poisoned inheritance for a generation.
444 - I have 2 chicken breasts marinading right now, it’s been a lovely 94 today, so am going to go out in the back yard, bbq the chicken and throw the ball for the dog (the one that sleeps on the bed), have a couple of drinks and enjoy the evening.
I will now have to make do with beer or cheap scotch, instead of your obviously much stronger laced brew…ah well.
Mrs Dale is an odd one. He has a reputation of sorts to protect so can’t just make stuff up however why on earth would such a seismic story be breaking on his blog ?
If its a direct leak from Reid then its a nother shell strike on Gordons bunker.
414: ‘…the man is out of his depth now…’
Yes, Woodward was acting like Brown’s butler and started to blub when Maitlis got mildly hostile. Poor effort by him - dreary and petulant in equal measure. Although I still think he’s in for promotion this will merely be as a result of his toadying rather than through and traceable ability.
439 ha ha “GO NOW” . Yes. a ringing endorsement . Brown shown behind bars on 2 front pages, the plot thickens on another, brown still there (for now) , Yes quite a good day for him really..
448 how can Iain Dale verify this i wonder.
448: would have been pretty pointless for Reid to make that sort of declaration to Brown in person and then not leak it imo.
419
If STV depends upon multi-member constituencies then it is doomed to be less democratic than what we have now. That is the clear lesson of what we see in multi-member constituencies in other countries and at local and Euro levels in the UK.
Dreadful mistake from the Telegraph regarding the Tory share in 2004. Why doesn’t anyone double check anything these days?
454. After they’ve run out of juice, the Telegraph will have a lot fewer readers I believe.
Last post before bed.
If I was Labour councillor or activist who had put hours of thankless work into the campaign - I would be livid with Blears right now.
She will have cost people their seats and caused much time and money to be wasted; not her time or money.
Even it activists etc want Brown out, they will want it done differently. If it is your council seat or if you have run the gauntlet of public discontent [some of which she is responsible for] to campaign for what you believe in and/or your pals, you would want to throttle her chipmonk neck.
To say she has gone back to cavass and reconnect with her local party is a sickening irony.
453. Erm, well, actually, the biggest complaint in Ireland is that TDs are too tied to their constituencies and don’t spend enough time being legislators.
You can’t have it both ways.
Precisely what other countries with MM constituencies did you have in mind?
So now both John Reid and David Blunkett have refused to take up role of Home Secretary. Doesnt look like the reshuffle is happening quite as planned does it? lol Gordon is just crap.
449 I thought Maitliss was poor, allowed Woodward to control the interview in a manner Paxo never would.
Woodward clearly attended the same charm school as Reid - referring to the interviewer by her first name every second sentence. Pass the sick bag.
Michael Meacher (remember him?) just posted this on his blog, and it encapsulates Labour’s predicament rather well:
The Blairite-Brownite vendetta is destroying Labour
The resignations of the Blairite current and previous Ministers - Patricia Hewitt, Bev Hughes, and Hazel Blears - and possibly also the premature leaking of Jacqui Smith’s resignation, all immediately before key elections known to be critical for Labour, appear part of a coordinated de-stabilisation of Gordon Brown. They also illustrate how deep is the animus between the two feuding factions, and bring to the surface the rancour which has been latent ever since Tony Blair was forced out two years ago. And, deeply depressingly, they reveal just how far the Labour Party, in its bowdlerised nemesis as New Labour, has now become the cockpit for the struggle between ambitious factions, devoid of ideology or wider inspiration. The lesson is that this is the fate of any political party that merely apes its rival and loses all touch with the wider social and economic interests it is meant to represent
456. “If I was Labour councillor or activist who had put hours of thankless work into the campaign - I would be livid with Blears right now.”
Had a brief ranty phone call from my sis saying the exact same thing a few moments ago.
456. SallyC. Gordo should have sacked her ages ago when the whole thing first blew up. He would have looked strong and competent. (He would have been strong and competent). Anyway, Labour just have to hope that something good comes of all of this.
is it possible that the YouGov poll is inaccurate with regards to BNP support?
considering that you have to sign up and hand over a lot of personal information to them in order to take part in their polling, it goes without saying that most folks thinking of BNP would dare not say so to them.
if my observation is correct, might June 4th be as big a polling disaster as the John Kerry v Bush polling when most major outlets were predicting a Kerry win? ( Reagan Democrats lying to pollsters …)
if the expenses row hadnt started , then this comment would never have been written. Either way June 4th is going to be one heck of a interesting election result.
disclaimer: i am not a BNP voter and have no intention of voting for them. i am just noting the sheer anger of voters out there - might that anger translate into support for extremists like the BNP?
462….a Tory Govt perhaps.
I have to walk the streets tomorrow - in a good way. Night all.
Mr Jones - she has my sympathies.
my comment equally applies to the extreme left of course - might we see Communist/Marxist micro parties propelled into public view because of core Labour voters ditching Labour?
in other words, might June 4th signal a Weimar Republic scenario, where the moderates start feeling the squeeze because of voters switching to extreme right and extreme left?
460. Ah, Meacher. Millionaire Benn’s millionaire representative upon earth. How we miss him. I wonder what he’s doing these days?
personal anecdotes : close friend, labour all his life , skype messaging me about communist candidates and if i could find out if any are standing in his area (i’m better at google that he is)
wife: lib dem all her life - voting green
another friend; conservative, voting UKIP, but “dont tell the wife”
yet another friend: normally Labour, but voting BNP. again “dont tell anyone. especially the wife”
i dont know. my experience is a mere snapshot. i do wonder if this is occuring across the country? might the polling be completely wrong?
461. Maybe Hazel Blears will be “accidentally” trodden on by John Prescott.
Having now seen Jacqui Smith’s statement about her standing down from the Home Office, I believe that she was not a willing member of this plot. But once Smith had announced her departure, Blears chose to follow, to wound Brown. But not yet fatally.
Blears could have criticised Brown publically or have called for him to stand down but she didn’t do so. And reports in the press are that the Labour grassroots are livid with her timing, on the eve of the Euro and local elections.
Hmm… I think this assassination revolver is half-cocked at the moment.
453. “If STV depends upon multi-member constituencies then it is doomed to be less democratic than what we have now. That is the clear lesson of what we see in multi-member constituencies in other countries and at local and Euro levels in the UK.”
That is a truly ridiculous statement. Multi-member local government wards in England are elected by FPTP which is without doubt the worst of all worlds, so how can you use that to make a criticism of STV is beyond me. Proportional representation by definition requires multi-member constituencies/regions somewhere along the line to achieve the proportionality. Whether you think that’s a swap worth making is of course subjective - but to my mind ‘democratic’ can only mean that people get the representation they actually voted for, and that requires proportionality.
456. Not that it counts for much but I’m an activist and i think this latest line on Blears is cant (yes that is spelt correctly)- any hard work was undermined weeks, months if not a year ago by keeping in place a PM (and cronies) whose only thought for the cause is an almost incontinent need to spin and smear colleagues. Of course it is madness for a Cabinet Minister to say they are resigning the day before an election but so are the petty, short-term manoeuvres of those that ramp up reshuffles, lobby against members of their own party and so on only to find, as usual, they are left with a smoking gun pointing directly at the Party’s already bloody stump of a foot.
In normal times by all means attempt to rally the troops against disloyalty but there needs to be something loyal to rally to in the first place…
452. Good Point. I’m reassured that proper plotters like Reid,Byers and Milburn are in charge this time.
The problem with the Blairites taking down Brown is that they are a minority in the party. They can’t possibly succeed in getting one of their own in as leader. The Blairites are hated by much of the base, and the Brownites are all discredited by the last twelve months, while the left-wing of the party can never be a credible opposition, let alone win an election.
FTPP: antifrank.
I noticed your comment that a May 2010 election is now available at 10/11.
I think what has happened is this. The chances of Brown surviving the next week or two are now judged to be around Evens. If he is replaced soon then the consensus seems to be that there would have to be an election this year. So, as a result, a 2010 election becomes an Evens shot.
I have repeatedly asked PBers whether they feel replacing Brown soon would necessitate a 2009 election and no clear view has emerged. PtP has argued and bet that it would not necessarily follow.
My own hunch has been that it would lead to a 2009 election. So, fortunately, I placed some decent bets on a 2009 election and an October 09 election over the last few weeks to balance my strong 2010 positions.
I would be happy now with either October 2009 or May 2010. Other months would not be good.
468. “Not that it counts for much but I’m an activist and i think this latest line on Blears is cant”
Well, I’m not a Labour activist but it seems like cant to me also. Blears is a long way down the list of people most responsible for Labour’s plight.
472. MichaelK. Cant blame Blears then?
Is this time for Tony Blair to return on a white charger,after all this surely anything is possible. (Can he renounce his peerage and come back?) I’m only 25% joking……
471 stjohn - the holding of an Oct ‘09 GE is not dependent on Brown’s prior departure. Were he to survive, he too might opt for this date particularly were the end of the recession not yet then in sight and were unemployment levels still soaring - both situations odds-on to be the case.
.
.
If you live in Salford though will you vote for Blears?
As much as I cannot stand Hazel Blears (I really can’t, the chirpiness is too much to bear), I think she was a useful mouthpiece for the government at times. When you needed something unpopular and difficult to defend, wheel Hazel out because nobody takes her seriously anyway.
Her role as the Cabinet chatterbox will be missed, IMHO.
Both Hill’s and Sporting’s Euro Markets closed.
.
.
Back to the original topic: the not certain to vote bit refers to the General Election. Whilst pollsters are not perfect the reporting of their results are a mess. Why didn’t the Telegraph quote the figures of those certain to vote - would probably give a boost to the Tories?
“When asked how they would vote in a general election, If the responses of people who are not certain to vote are included in the results, the Tory vote share jumps to 37 per cent, with Labour in second place on 21 per cent and the Lib Dems in third on 19 per cent. Ukip support drops to just 8 per cent, reflecting the party’s lack of “casual” sympathisers.” Telegraph
475. Peter. Agreed. I’ve oversimplified my argument. But the reason that 2009 date has shortened dramatically today is the prospect of a new Labour leader and PM.
A Gordon Brown led October 2009 election would probably be one of my better outcomes.
479. Icarus: the reporting of their results are a mess.
Quite. It’s damn ugly, in fact!
The thing to bear in mind is that standard YouGov polls do not filter for turnout, so the GE VI poll is a standard YouGov.
Presumably the tables will come out soon and then we’ll be able to deduce the standard-methodology Euro numbers.
“The group of plotters has now grown to seven or eight individuals, but to this day, they have never all met in the same room and say they never will meet until their list has been sent to the prime minister.
Their invisibility and composition is supposed to keep together all the elements that went wrong with the plot last summer. Organisers have come from across the party.
(…)
So, just as Brown once knitted together different factions into one government – a government of all the talents, in a drive for harmony, now the new list is a rebellion of all the talents – “Blairites, senior select committee chairmen, senior people from across the party, elements of the [leftwing] Compass campaign group, we’ve got them all,” said one.
(…)
Leadership contenders David Miliband, Jon Cruddas and Alan Johnson have all been told by members of the tree, “decide where you stand, but just remember that when people look back at this, they will want to know where you were on this”.
The article is really good.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/04/hotmail-conspiracy-gordon-brown
There WILL be a 2009 GE for sure. This daily death of the labour party cannot carry on for another year. They’re out of ideas, out of money, out of candidates for cabinet, out of hope and widely hated. There is no chance of Brown or anyone else struggling on like this for another 6 months let alone 12.
Dave will be PM in 2009.
468. 472. These resignations were designed to reduce the Labour vote at the election and no doubt some people will see it as a good tactic for putting pressure on McDoom to quit. I think you’ll find some of the more old fashioned Laboury types will see this as a very disloyal thing to do the day before an election.
How did Sondheim put it in ‘A Little Night Music’?
Oh yes…
Every day a little death
A song for Brown and Westminster
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoTltQtE8wk&feature=related
At this point Labour will lose the next election, regardless of who the leader is.
I can understand trying to topple a leader if you think you can win the election with a new one, but that’s not going to happen.
So you come down to the fact that the sooner you hold the election (and you have to assume that with another anointed leader it could not be long delayed), the sooner you’re out of a job. If Brown could hang on until May next year they will have another (almost) year’s salary as an MP.
So if you’re not going to win, and it will cost you money into the bargain, why on earth would you want to depose Gordon?
ps to my point at 484.
It won’t make a difference to anything much for the simple fact that it will be mainly the ultra loyal types who are angry and they are by definition… ultra loyal.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00568/Cartoon_568081a.jpg
484. “I think you’ll find some of the more old fashioned Laboury types will see this as a very disloyal thing to do the day before an election.”
I think you are absolutely right - that is why it is the line being trotted out; and it is the reason Labour don’t (to go back to earlier discussions of Stephen Pound’s comments) ‘pollaxe’ their leaders…it is a very emotional movement and easily rallied to calls of loyality/disloyalty.
Nonetheless, I still believe the argument to be cant; maybe today’s events will have moved or hardened some voters but the tide was set by events farther down the line - I call, for the prosecution, the poll that heads this thread.
Edit: and I think MrJones you are spot on at 488 too
490. Ah fair enough - the argument is cant rather than the existence of the argument is cant. I misunderstood your meaning.
307.”Dyed in some wool somewhere says:
3/6/2009 at 10:47 pm
Jesus, Nick Brown is naming and shaming on the eve of election - Milburn, Byers and some backbenchers fingered.”
Just like last year, as I said earlier, they took some malcontent’s and turned them into public rebels. Now this spray gun effect to smoke out the ring leaders will end up delivering more rebels, who go public! These bullying tactics turned a hiccup into a crisis last year. Don’t any of the inner circle of Brownites possess positive, or politically astute negotiating skills?
Interesting tonight on Newsnight, and elsewhere, lots of Brown defenders, but where are the rebels going on the record? Waiting until the polls close tomorrow night. It might get quite messy then?
451.”JamesA says:
4/6/2009 at 12:07 am
448 how can Iain Dale verify this i wonder.”
Didn’t Dale mention earlier today that he had a very reliable senior Labour source, he has a few cross party friends and contacts? Brown’s premiership is imploding right now, the Labour party is in meltdown, and a couple of separate plots have been revealed tonight. It sounds like everyone is leaking like sieves right now, anonymously of course.
459.PfP, I agree, Matliss was poor, I gave up the will to live by the end of that interview tonight. Very poor choice of guests on Newsnight overall. Newsnight Scotland was a bit better. Not good for Brown. Note that some big hitters with much to lose out batting for him. Mandelson apparently did the thumbs up at one report he might be going to the FO in the reshuffle according to Michael Crick. No wonder he took to the airwaves to defend Brown today, in what was a very blatantly calculated attempt to save his own ambitions.
467.”Proportional representation by definition requires multi-member constituencies/regions somewhere along the line to achieve the proportionality. Whether you think that’s a swap worth making is of course subjective - but to my mind ‘democratic’ can only mean that people get the representation they actually voted for, and that requires proportionality.”
WRONG! Heard a typical story tonight from a couple of local people which sums up our new STV system locally, and the effect it has on alienating the voters from their elected councillors. Sad, but true.
“Desperate Labour whips were last night trying to strangle the mutiny at birth — as they were warned ANOTHER senior minister is set to resign within days”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2464095/Labour-email-calling-for-PM-to-resign.html
And this is probably the fourth article that says that Darling holds they key to Brown’s future.
Good night everyone.
492. Ooh, Christina, you and your anecdotes. If I told you that that I’d bumped into some people at the bus stop, had a quick chat with them about electoral reform (as you do) and they were all totally up for it, would you be remotely impressed by that? I pointed out last night the YouGov poll showing 54% support in Scotland for PR, and only 18% opposed. The sample size was over 500. And it can no longer be said that such support only exists in ignorance of how PR would work in practice - three out of four of our layers of political representation in Scotland are now elected by PR.
Wake up, Christina - the public want PR. It may not be their number one priority (no constitutional reform ever is), but we now have very clear-cut polling evidence that the broad support in principle is there.
What an interesting day this promises to be; Brown’s fate could well be sealed based on the votes that are about to be cast. Don’t let Brown go yet, his era has been just too much fun… vote Labour!
Interesting to watch this:-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1C2hieHKgA
496. S&S.
Can’t make myself do it.
By the Golden Rule, the most accurate of the final polls will be Populus’s C 30, UKIP 19, Lab 16, LD 12, Grn 10, BNP 5, Oth 8.
492. .Heard a typical story tonight from a couple of local people which sums up our new STV system locally, and the effect it has on alienating the voters from their elected councillors. Sad, but true.
Well what then? Don’t leave us in suspenders!
(Five hundred and) first!
I wonder if the order of parties in the sidebar here tells us anything about the BBC’s expectations?
C
Lab
UKIP
LD
Grn
BNP
Libertas
EngDem
No2EU
Christian
Jury Team
UK First
496. Actually, S&S, I suffer from a touch of OCD and at this time before an election I always have this irrational thought-process that I’m somehow going to vote for Labour by accident. Then when I come out of the polling station, no matter how many times I checked the ballot paper I wonder if I actually did vote Labour by accident.
467. Multi-member local government wards in England are elected by FPTP which is without doubt the worst of all worlds, so how can you use that to make a criticism of STV is beyond me.
To be fair, it was clear from previous messages that there was a fundamental objection to multi-member wards, regardless of any question of proportionality (or otherwise). Quite why single-member wards are so brilliant as to negate all the various advantages of STV (in terms of accountability, representation, scrutiny, balance, choice, monotonicity protection and so on) is not so obvious.
Times leader .. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6426599.ece
498/502- Well, I tried! But I don’t suppose Labour activists have had much more success than I’ve had…
501. That’s probably based on the 2004 result, isn’t it? That would be the fairest way to do it.
501. Hmm, the edit dropped the link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm
S&S - I’m sure your amusement is of great importance to you, (un)fortunately it is of little consequence to me. LOL. Just see this like the last episode in a favourite tv series.. you knew it was coming, wanted to know the outcome but still mourn it’s passing.
517- Whoa, what happened to the numbering?!?!
Yeah, I suppose I’m being a bit selfish here. I’m sure you have weightier things on your minds, like ending this government and attempting to thereby improve your lives. But you’re right, I still will miss the pratfalls, slip ups, hijinks, and other monkeyshines of Gordon Brown & Company.
518 - yes entertaining but ultimately WE pay a price from front row seats.
OT .. I wonder if the bunker will need replastering before next occupant moves in ?
numbering looks fine to me ..
Re: 466 & Mr Meacher, I met someone the other day who met him in a “professional setting”, and guess what, he still (even after his botched challenge in ‘07) has lofty ambitions to become prime minister!!! Micheal Meacher is 70 this year.
Wow, nine posts released from moderation all at once!
515. Red Meteor: That’s probably based on the 2004 result, isn’t it?
It’s the right order for those parties which stood last time, but the location of the four new parties (one of which is only standing in three regions) is interesting, as is the fact they’ve omitted one party that is standing in all 11 GB regions.
Also, I didn’t previously realise that Libertas weren’t fielding candidates in Scotland and Wales.
I also noticed that message 501 suddenly became 510. I propose that a temporary and sudden re-adjustment of the numbering of messages within a thread, which is caused by the release of messages from moderation, and which causes temproray confuzzlement among PBers, should henceforth be termed a “dorothy”. Today, there was a dorothy which registered 9 on the Smithson scale.
What a 24hours !
I must say that this has been a splendid thread and have just read it from start to finish plus many links.
I retired in the early evening convinced that Gordon Brown was toast even though the betting momentum was for him staying.
That momentum has gathered pace as has that for the linked issue of a 2010 GE.All my money is on a 2009 GE and Brown departing.In the latter case I actually LOSE if he stays.
My thesis is that leaving aside all the plotting and spinning the real results of the EU poll will be so awful that he has to be replaced.
The spin will be that ‘we were undone by the disloyalty of Hazel’.This is obvious nonesense and the thing is that Labour MPs will not be fooled by this.
On a strictly betting note I think Labour will finish 4th in the popular vote but am hoping they achieve a TIE for Seats with either UKIP or the Lib Dems…or both !
I think the Tories will come first and UKIP second. I’m not really sure whether Labour or the Lib Dems will finish third, although I’d probably lean a little bit to Labour although not by much.
Another poor poll for Nazi BNP. No seats for them, o happy day
What odds that the Greens or BNP beat Labour in at least one region?