The Guardian calls for Gord to go
June 2nd, 2009
Have we now reached the end-game for Mr. Brown?
In a long and powerfully argued main leader for the paper tomorrow the Guardian makes a strong call for Mr. Brown to go. In fact it is much more forceful than that - the message is that if Mr. Brown does not agree to step down then he should be, “cut loose”. There’s no need to spell out what that means.
The leader concludes: “..Of course many people, who see the better angels in Mr Brown’s nature, do not want his dreams to end like this. His premiership would be one of the briefest in history. He would never have fought an election. But fate can be unjust.
All must agree that the die is cast and a hard judgment made. Otherwise progressive politics will be dragged down at a general election in May 2010 that could lead to a much bigger defeat than Labour suffered in 1979. That might bring a chance for other parties to take it forward, as the Liberal Democrats are trying to do in this election. But they are not placed to enter government. Labour has a year left before an election; its current leader would waste it. It is time to cut him loose.”
Of all the national papers the Guardian is the most influential within the movement and there’s little doubt that when it publishes a main editorial in these terms then it is going to be taken seriously.
Whenever this has been raised at previous points in Mr. Brown’s short tenure at the Number 10 the standard reaction has been to say that the rules would make such a move very difficult. What is fascinating is that that argument is simply not being made at the moment.
There seems to be a growing clamour from all parts of the movement for change to take place and to take place quickly. How this will manifest itself in reality is hard to predict - but one thing I’m more sure of after a day of momentous events is that there will be a serious attempt to push him aside.
Will he fight or see that the movement that he cares so deeply about is more important than his own position? I don’t know - the next days and weeks could be very bloody.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First?
In the name of God, go!
Cheerio Gordon HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
The Beeb can always rely on Steve Richards to whistle and keep NuLab’s spirits up!
Where does the Guardian get the idea that any government involving this bunch of Labourite urine gourds would have the moral authority to push through epochal electoral reform?
Who’s gonna support that if its espoused by anyone in this f*cking awful regime? Voters will just presume its vermin proposing to abolish rat poison, and they’d be right.
Please stay, please please please stay, Gordon you are easily the most incompetent Prime Minister in modern history, and it is essential that we get to see your miserable face as you lose to Cameron with his 100+ majority.
an amazing finish to the last two months - it’s barely two months since the G20, his planned launchpad - the paper of the Left calling for him to go.
I’m still not convinced that Gordon will be forced out. I just think it will carry on getting progressively worse.
the champagne socialists at the guardian are now terrified of a Labour wipeout. they are now desperate for a Lib Lab pact, coalitions forever, they are unable to resist the socialist grasping, holding onto their slipping grip on power. Odious.
What is up with the Telegraph?
Surely they should have spilled the beans on Boris by now?
6. Sadly, I think he’s gone. I now reckon the odds are against him lasting the year.
Maybe 4/3 against.
Its utter crunchdown!!!!
Lab could go sub 20% in the GE!!!!!!
No seats in England for Lab outside of Scouseland and Yorkshire!!!!!!!!!!!
9 OK, now I get it. If the Champagne Socialists want a Lib Lab pact, then they had better vote for the Lib Dems to ensure that there are enough of them for the New Master Plan to succeed.
The other very important betting point is that the Guardian doesn’t just call for Gordon Brown to go, it calls for a contested election. Alan Johnson would still be favourite in a contested election, but it wouldn’t be anything like as certain as if a coronation took place after Gordon Brown was deposed.
And yet, and yet - our host is a big fan of Alan Johnson. Henry G Manson raves about his chances. URW tells me the smart money is going on him. There are times when I have to accept that my judgement just isn’t good enough and I should trust other people. I think this is one of those times.
um, i’m now thinking the chances of Gord going are pushing the 50% point. I always thought he’d hang on forever
12 - and his home soil if the Nats don’t do for them!
I think, for Brown to go, we need either a cabinet minister to resign and do a Howe, or a backbench big beast to tell him to go.
Some whingeing earlier about a LibDem leaflet . Nowhere near as bad as the real nasty party . After police involvement and being advised that they had libelled the CEO of the council and the LibDem councillor in a leaflet , Taunton Comeytrowe Conservatives have had to rush out a last minute leaflet with a statement of apology from the chairman of Taunton Conservatives .
FPT 409 I can’t provide a link but there was a pretty daming article about it in the week before last’s Economist.
11. I’m not convinced. If he goes now, Labour will either have to call an immediate election with all those MPs losing their jobs, or they’ll have to force another unelected leader - something that would be as bad as keeping Brown for their popularity.
Paxman to John Denham: When will one of you pluck up the courage, and tell him to go in the interests of party?
It may be that Brown’s wife is the one to offer him the whisky and luger. She may be the only person left who he would listen to…
9 Go for it, I say, and let’s wipe out both parties at once.
Does anyone really think that if Brown is forced out he will be prepared to hang around for a couple of months whilst a new election for leader is got out of the way?
ooh - all we need tomorrow is more people to speak out agains the PM. his vote will collapse even more on euro election day, and he will be out.
ALL TORIES - VOTE LABOUR - KEEP GORDON!
YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO 
lol i hate socialists, i hate the Guardian and I hate Gordon. But getting rid of Brown won’t help them. EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM is tainted, the whole edifice of the Labour movement is rotten and corrupt to the core. It needs to be swept away , whoever is leading it.
The British people arent daft. They can see Labour for what they are. They have wrecked the country. Trashed millions of people’s dreams. And now its time for Labour to pay.
18 its LD comedy time!!!!!!
As has been said before:
Mark Senior = LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL!!!!!!!!!18,The way you smear senior,you would be leader of the nasty party.
All I can say is that Thursday-Sunday is going to be fascinating politically, whatever happens.
Roger.
‘I bet I’m the only poster who has never used the word ’scum’. It’s just too ugly.’
Want to bet?
If Brown goes there will be a General Election within three months. On that point Jonathan Freedland is right.
This is surely the only thing preventing Labour assassinating their farmy-farming Fuhrer right now.
22 - Given how bad Gordon Brown is with social skills, and generally acting like a muppet, he’ll probably take the gun, and shoot someone with it.
Paxman. promoting highly divisive figures like Ed Balls, Mandleson.
As an Alan Johnson cheerleader on pb.com for quite a while, the amount of focus around this guy for the last lot of weeks, to the exclusion of other names is clearly a sign of momentum.
Where are the rivals?
I think Gordon’s master plan to knock the G20 summit off the front pages has worked brilliantly.
Drum roll for ‘Bounce 4’ the final come back.
28 I am out of the country this weekend. Once before when I went away for a few days, Mrs Thatcher resigned.
I hope the Internet speaks English in France.
What exactly is Alan Johnson’s vision? Where will he take the country?
As far as I know, he supports AV+ and caves in to union pressure.
What else?
Roy Hattersley LOL
19. I can’t find one mentioning the situation regarding GM and unions.
14. It’s not about Johnson as leader. It’s Mandelson as leader behind the scenes with Johnson as spinnable figurehead.
Hattersley, Cheap journalism - references to 4 resignations.
I think Johnson will announce he is not interested once Brown resigns. All the hype around him is based on one comment on Marr.
35 - Well when Thatcher was forced out, she was in France, guess where Gordon Brown is this weekend? Yup in France. Will the coincidences never end.
I’m sure it’s not in Labour’s interest for him to go now. The reason why Labour is still in with a chance is because whatever people tell pollsters most are terrified of leaving the fragile economy in the hands of Biggles and Thicko.
He should step down when the green shoots have started to flower and then Johnson on a tide of approval can look to the next horizon with a spring in his step.
14
Alan Johnson now best priced 2/1 next Labour leader with PP.
Alan Johnson 2
Harriet Harman 13/2
David Miliband 8
Ed Miliband 10
Jon Cruddas 10
Purnell, J 10
Jack Straw 14
Ed Balls 16
John Denham 25
Hilary Benn 33
He can’t survive now, surely. Too many enemies and too few friends.
Hattersley - it’s all down to the nasty press, nothing is wrong in Labour - Gordon is great…
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Will Hatters refuse to write for The Grauniad?
Is Alan Johnson the sort of individual who thinks the only thing wrong with the GDR was its lack of biometric ID cards linked to a centralised tracking and monitoring government database?
Guardian article is dispicable. I agree with SeanT.
They encouraged Brwon on in the killing off of Blair because he wasn’t really on of them. Now they will kill off Bron and Change the system in case the public deosn’t for their next puppet - who they will mangle in just the same way if it suits.
Time for Labour to cut themselves free of the rag. The Tories cut lose from the DT long ago.
35. GET a DONGLE.
I’m using my Vodafone DONGLE in Spain right now. Surprisingly good value! And it means you don’t have to miss a minute of The Downfall.
27 How have I smeared anyone ?
O/T - It’s all go chez Burdett. I have two police helicopters circling and half a dozen police cars down my street with big search lights flashing… hmm something is going on.
Labour really are in complete panic mode, Steve Richards, John Denham, and Roy Hattersley all frothing in denial. Interesting times.
The Cat is Away in France on Saturday…
Will the Mice be Playing while he is keeping Prince Charles company?
44 “Too many enemies and too few friends.”
The reason Brown won’t survive is because no-one is afraid of him any more.
that dreadful lettice muncher the Lucas woman on Newsnight. She needs to be recycled
I see newsnight doing a hatchet job on the tories
Richard Bacon’s doing a helpful phone-in on Five Live right now asking the question, “Is the government in meltdown!”
51 its a coup!!!! They are on their way to arrest brown, or going to luton to arrest moran!!!
We’ve gotta drown
The dithering Brown
And The Guardian’s the one to do it!
(To the tune of ‘We’ve gotta slap the dirty little Jap’, infamous WW2 propaganda song.)
Might be an interesting time for The Guardian. They huffed and they puffed about Boris - made themselves look hysterically silly and were pretty much ignored.
But I suspect the Labour Party have more in common with frightened sheep that the people of London.
54 Yep - the death of McBride was a key battle. Lost the airwar.
The Guardian - what a pathetic, wet old rag. I wouldn’t pee on it if it were on fire.
I hope Brown stays on now, just to pee off Polly and the drivel at that toss pit.
@51: Is there a shadow minister visiting? Has Jacqui found out?
OK can somebody crack open the Labour party rule book. Lets assume that Gordon is persuaded to brutally saw his own head off for the good of the party, what happens then? Will the deputy leader be there as a caretaker leader, or will he stay on until after the leadership contest, and most importantly what does that mean for the Labour leadership markets?
**************BETTING POST*************
WillHill have “Mr Broon to lead labour at next election” No - 2.25
Any takers?
59 I don’t know it. Did it chart?
On a purely selfish and theatrical basis, I’m gonna miss Gordon Brown. And indeed The Last Days of Labour.
Epic entertainment.
Front Pages,
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/wednesday_3_june_2009.html
43. How do you know what most people think? You demonstrate how ‘out of touch’ and delusional you are with almost every post you make.
The Guardian editorial is totally chilling in its embrace of gerrymandering and a chaotic rush to fix the system in its favour before the inconvenience of a general election.
I hope the libedems are stupid enough to try and join this ‘progressive’ attack on democracy. We soooooooo need a general election.
64. I believe the cabinet and NEC choose a new leader for the interim.
Think Rod Crosby or someone posted it a thread or two ago.
WOW, I never thought I’d see this. If your a Tory in an area the Tories can’t win this week, you now need to tactically vote Labour to prop up the Labour vote to just above an acceptable threshold. Save Gord for a generation of Tory Government, don’t let him fall.
Discussing Brown at work today , he comes up in conversation more and more. people really hate him. this whole Royal D Day lack of invite thing has got under people’s skin too, as they see it as symptomatic of the way Brown operates.
On PB people are political nerds but dont think Browns way of operating hasnt been spotted in the country - everyone knows what he’s like - hes been around for 12 years - and they really, really have grown to hate him, particulalary these last 12 months.
Sadly Labour don’t have anyone better. he’s seen off all the competition within his own party and all thats left is incompetent fools and children.
re 26, 27
The reality is that the Taunton Conservatives have been forced into an apology after police involvement. Fact.
I have been very critical of some of my own party’s (Lib Dem) leaflets, but I think the Taunton case emphasises that others also need to be more proper.
18 Mark Senior, looks like a council CEO will shortly be looking for a new job then. Is it possible to libel a LibDem councillor?
Alex re the swine flu from last thread the worrying thing about the 46 year old man in intensive care in Paisley is he has had no known contact with any Mexico/USA traveller and he had no pre-existing underlying health problems unlike the woman or the chap last week.
58, 63 - Nope I have now been joined by two more helicopters, a dozen police cars, a paddy wagon my street is lit up like daylight with searchlights. All a tad weird.
Gordo is a gonna, every single front page is basically “Gordo your time is up, come in No.10, your time is up” / “Government in meltdown / chaos”.
50,look at your post on 18,tory = nasty party,is’nt that smearing senior ?
18 Incidentally Mark Senior you were very silent on the fact the LibDem councillor in Aberdeenshire who tried to prevent the Donald Trump development has now defected to the Lettice Munchers.
65 I take it, Armitage, that you missed the 5/2 that was repeatedly flagged here a few days ago?
I reckon it’s now odds on he goes before the GE, and more likely sooner than later.
The idea of ditching the PM is built upon the premise that by keeping Gordon the party may continue shedding 1% polling point a month until the election.
That would leave then on about 10%.
Things can’t only get better. They may just get worse.
The rest Of the Front pages are equally bad
67 my thoughts exactly . it was like that with thatcher too. but best not get sentimental, eh?
68.
They might be descrived as ‘not great’ for Brown.
As a Tory, I’m really worried now. We need Gord in place for the next GE. But he looks like he’ll be gone well before one can be called.
The only Prime Minister to hold office without ever winning a mandate?
“Biggles and Thicko”
Gonad and Gordo?
Socrates “he took the amount (on his house) he was allowed for a legitimate expense, and covered the rest himself. All seems very reasonable”
It’s just that the some voters who can’t afford a £600,000 pad in the Cotswolds resent contributing £375,000 to Cameron’s.
Tight bastards!
83. Churchill
Will someone please just kill it now? We can’t let it go on for another 12 months…
Hague doing himself no favours on newsnight
Pathetic how the Guardian pretends that changing the voting system will stop the expenses abuse,not a single member of the public that i’ve seen interviewed over the expenses scandal has even mentioned changing the voting system.
Why don’t they just come clean and say how worried they are about the huge loss of public sector advertising revenue that will happen with a change of government and that PR may help stop this and save their newspaper.
83 - Nope Chamberlain was never elected.
Will Brown still be PM in the morning? Balls must be near certain now for Chancellor - to keep the bad doggy on side and snarling.
Right. That is it. If Balls is going to be in - Brown needs to go.
77 Nope it is the truth .
74/78 The CEO concerned may well sue Taunton Conservatives for a large sum of money . As you well know the councillor concerned was no longer a member of the LibDems
79. Can any PM survive the *loss* of his Home Secretary and Chancellor in the same few days, alongside a humiliating electoral defeat?
Possibly. But not probably.
68. I think they might go down as the most consistently bad headlines for Brown so far.
Tories panicking at the prospect of Brown leaving, taking out their anger on the Guardian. Hilarious.
I see Sheikh Mansour has started profit taking on the stock market - just a cool £1.5 billion profit from flogging off its Barclays shares….
Classic Paxman on Newsnight just now, I lost track of the number of times he put the same question to William Hague…
73. Apparently Taunton is such a crime-free area the police while away the long afternoons investigating libel accusations.
We may be seeing a PM deposed and Mark Senior is going on about Taunton Tories.
“Whenever this has been raised at previous points in Mr. Brown’s short tenure at the Number 10 the standard reaction has been to say that the rules would make such a move very difficult.”
And they still do. The Labour Party rules could have been specifically designed to avoid leadership challenges while in office. The rules, however, may be irrelevant.
We’re close to an immovable object / irresistable force moment. The pressure on Brown to go will be enormous after what we assume will be appalling results over the next few days. He may have a little cover from possible Tory losses in the EP (due mainly to the reduction in the UK’s allocation of seats), and claim that it’s an anti-establishment vote linked to expenses but it’s thin and won’t explain the local elections, where far fewer minor party options are available.
To go according to the rules will need at least 70 Labour MP’s to break cover and nominate an alternative - and indeed, for such an alternative to put him/herself forward. I just can’t see that happening because it needs a candidate first and there isn’t one. However, power has a now-you-see-it/now-you-don’t quality. When people lose faith in a leader, they stop following and there’s precious little a leader can then do because all the sanctions melt away. If the cabinet said ‘go’, he probably wouldn’t have a choice.
Will they? Despite it all, I’m still not conviced. Where are all the leaks from the cabinet or even PLP to suggest that kind of opposition exists? The Guardian may have broken rank but the Labour Party - at least in Westminster - still seems to be sufficiently behind Gordon.
Once the reshuffle has taken place, ministers will find it very difficult to call for Brown to go having just accepted a new position under him. Having done so implies they accepted his leadership. It will be interesting to see if any refuse to move or voluntarily leave cabinet where not under pressure of expenses.
Right things are returning to normal here, the police siege has ended. God knows what they were looking for. No doubt the rumours will start tomorrow!!
97. Up to Howard’s level? Worth looking up on iplayer?
83. Maybe NP would refer to them as ’sub optimal’?
92 the good voters of Aberdeenshire wont see it that way.
Never mind on Friday you can explain to us all why the LibDem controlled Dunny-on-the-wold council falling to the Lettice munchers is going to result in your party getting 150 seats at the GE.
Good night all and see you on Friday evening
Newsnight Scotland’s second night of dissecting the expenses of the MP for Livingston and now mentioning other Labour MP’s.
102 it wa fairly painful viewing - worth a look yes
Hague was crap tonight
re 53 maybe Mr Obama will deliver the coup de grâce
@97: Unfortunately for Paxo, people understand how to deal with that now. It still doesn’t make for a very illuminating interview, and Hague wasn’t very sprightly; he didn’t use the opportunity to make any points of his own.
106 - what was it about?
87.
Well, the Tories, Lib Dems, SNP and Plaid Cymru are doing their best…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8079604.stm
The Tories have announced they will back it:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/06/conservatives-will-back-commons-vote-to-dissolve-parliament-next-week-.html
Still leaves Labour with a beefy majority though.
85. The taxpayer hasnt contributed a penny to the house. Only the *interest* is paid.
69 the editorial is chilling but we always knew that New Labour would end like this , didnt we? The controlling elements always saw The Project as a revolution under which they would retain power forever and utterly destroy Britain and its insitutions.
Even if it means, whilst falling apart, they desperately try and change the voting system in their favour and f*** the public.
Generations will remember the fall of this government, and how they tried to save themselves. It is nothing short of disgusting. The Guardian is as guilty as Brown in bringing shame upon this country and our democracy. It has kept quiet and abuses have gone uncriticised. And now this. The final throw. Change the voting system as the election approaches, coalition , another Lib-Lab pact.
How can they sleep at night even to propose such a thing, in these circumstances. They think only of themselves. Not of us.
Sling the lot out.
Bill Quango. I suspect you are not really an MP. I also suspect that ‘Ronnie Biggs’ who returned a leaflet today [email - thieves.gov.uk] may not be a real person either.
I’ve thought he was a goner a bunch of times and always wrong. So this time I’m going to believe he’ll cling on so I can only be pleasantly surprised. Cabinet of nightmares:
Chancellor Herman Balls
Home Sec. Keith “Oilslick” Vaz
Foreign Sec. Nosferatu
Minister of Justice Sion Simon
Minister of Culture Chris “YFronts” Bryant
Minister of Children Sharon Shoesmith
Minister of Defence Geoff “Buff” Hoon
97 - Why didn’t Hague just say so “no I haven’t asked him as it’s not my job as shadow foreign sec to check up on doners tax affairs”
end of.
100 Of course, enough Labour MP’s could just abstain on the Nats motion - and hey presto! Election….Gordon would still front it as PM - and the Labour Party would be crushed, but could at least start the process of rebuilding a year earlier.
If that is seen as a coherent threat, then Gordon could just walk…
Hague destroyed by Paxman.
The Conservatives are deliberately vague about very many things; Paxman very ably demonstrated how the media will punish them for it.
It’s probably a price worth paying as it won’t make headlines when Labour is imploding.
105 Marcia Livingston must now be a nailed SNP gain at the GE. I am going to be at Dalmahoy on Friday so will be in the constituency.
Can’t understand why the rozzers would get involved in Taunton unless in England libel is a criminal matter. I thought that as with defamation in Scotland, it is a civil matter and bog all to do with the boys in blue. Obviously not enough clotted cream in the local LibDem afternoon scones.
I think the widely trailed promotion of Balls as Chancellor may have been the tipping point.
It seemed like a joke or a diversionary tactic at first - but now it seems that he is nailed on for the job.
That means that the Blairites are all going to vote against Gordon, and in Charles Clarke they have someone with the courage and the presence to run as a stalking horse to collect the 70 signatures needed for a contest.
109 Paxman going on about Ascroft and had Hague asked him if he was resident in the UK for tax
Hague saying ‘I have no reason to believe he is not’
Paxman ‘but did you ASK him?’
Hague…..
Rinse and repeat
Hague was weak on the new grouping and as always weak on what ‘not letting matters rest’ means - need to be far more aggressive with interviewers on that one.
It’s Lettuce - Lettuce - Lettuce - Lettuce !!!
18 This will be close next time won’t it HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/tauntondeane
In 2005 Tory candidate Formosa got about a 10% swing against the LDs somewhere in Cornwall! This time it will be 20%!!!
Can gain maj 20,000!!!!!
PS where’s Ballard hahahahahahahahahahahaha (cont p94) (not a spelling mistake)
Looks as though the SNP may be laying down a vote of no confidence as in 1979
123.
The SNP want to go the country now because they will sweep seats away from Labour. I, and I hope others like me will lend them my Tory vote to oust Labour in my seat.
103 - I’d even go so far as to say they are significantly less than ideal.
116 Marquee Mark
It’s basically a no-confidence motion. Any Labour MP who backs Gordon Brown then will have to back him until the next election, and have their political futures intimately tied up with his.
Brilliant work by Plaid and SNP.
123 - Maybe it’ll pass by one vote with someone coming over from Northern Ireland to ‘abstain in person’!
The Sun: BLUNDERBIRD IS GO…
Classic take on Smith’s departure!
121 I know but we are talking about the genetically modified greens!!
123 sorry folks just realised it is a motion to dissolve parliament. SNP expecting some Labour MPs to abstain. Cant see it myself but should ensure Gord survives
100 But, but.. .Gordon was specifically asked on Sunday on the Andrew Marr show “if the Cabinet came to you and told you to step down , would you?
Answer : “NO”.
Is this why people are resigning now? They cant be arsed, so they’re all leaving. Gord will be sat there. all alone.
126 It’s that Alex Salmond fella again! Labour must hate him!
112. Yes, you can imagine the Guardian editorials if, in 1996, the Tories had proposed to change the electoral system in a blatant bid to keep the rightwing in power, while foisting a third unelected prime minister on us and demanding we tolerate that for a whole year because “Tony Blair is untested”.
Do lefties not possess mirrors? Can they not see the nose hairs of their moral ugliness?
If Brown is going to be forced out I expect the following signs
a)If things look bad at this time in forty-eight hours (ie just after polls close) a senior back bencher or Peer to call for Brown to resign.
b) Friday AM - Cabinet ministers on TV refuse to rule out possibility of Gordon Brown resigning, possibly citing health and/or personal reasons
c) Friday AM a left wing backbencher to announce they want a general election unless Gordon Brown resigns and will vote to that effect.
d) Friday lunchtime. Friends of Tony Blair let it be known he feels Gordon brown should step down.
e) Friday lunchtime. Rumours that cabinet ministers are considering refusing to continue to serve under Gordon Brown.
f) Friday lunchtime. Predictions that Labour have come fourth in Euros and BNP stating they believe they have gained (a) seat(s)
g) Friday 2pm-3pm. Resignation of key cabinet minister(s). MPs and Trade Union leaders request meeting of NEC.
As a Tory, we will deal with it if Gordon goes - but Ed Balls as Chancellor - the country can’t take it. I’d rather Gordon leave.
115 - I probably would have done, but then I’m not shadow foreign secretary. Maybe he thought it would be embarrassing to admit he didn’t know for sure?
117 - Hardly destroyed. Although part way through I was wondering why he agreed to do the interview when he clearly wasn’t going to gain much out of it.
Mark Senior
You are on the wrong website with your ever fascinating local elections chat. you need
http://www.sadnerdswithnofriends.com
Balls has been in the House for 4 years. He should not even be a junior minister this soon except that he has dazzled Brown for years. If Brown gives Balls No. 11 he will be committing ’suicide by cop’ but he will do it to demonstrate that he has Balls. The Blairites and more senior Labour MPs who viscerally hate Balls and resent the whole Bunker team thing will knife the pair of them.
But Brown is beyond advice. He has delusions of omniscience. A bully with his back to the wall will do anything rather than surrender. And he has not the slightest conception of how hated he and Balls are.
It may come down to Brown and Balls against the world. And Brown **still** will not believe it.
124 I know of Tories in Inverness intending to vote SNP to oust the hopeless Danny Alexander
#126 Wibbler
It’s more brilliant than that. It just asks Brown to seek a dissolution.
So Labour MPs don’t even have the defence of saying they won’t vote for it because it disses their side but still get tainted by Brown if they vote against it.
Evening all.
Looks like Brown could well be on his way out. My estimate a few days ago of a 25% chance looks much too low now.
Given that, the momentum behind Johnson is now self-fulfilling.
There is still time to get odds on Johnson of 3-1 (Stan James), 2-1 (PP), or buy on the SPIN market at approx 2-1.
125 - Nick, last we reviewed our bet on Gordon being out this summer (end June you thought but I might need to check back in the old threads somehow if he does go in July!!) I think you said you felt the odds were 100-1 but you wouldn’t take a bet.
What is your price tonight?
133 this is going to do a lot for confidence in the City - the government in chaos, chancellor and home sec resigning, no one in control , macavity refusing to accept blame or stand down ; ruling party calling for change to voting system just before an election.
Its like we’re living in Zimbabwe.
lol!
Someone tell me this is photoshopped:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6418703.ece
134. Ed Balls as Chancellor would just be two fingers to everyone. For Brown to survive, he has to emasculate his potential rivals. Johnson to the Treasury, Harman to Justice / Lord Chancellor?
Nick clearly hinted the other day that Brown’s position was far from secure
I think OGH is right to play up the Guardian move. If the Guardian isn’t prepared to defend a Labour Prime Minister then frankly who is left? It doesn’t matter than noone reads Guardian editorials. Its a clear signal to the Illuminati that even the Praetorians are deserting their posts.
118. I think libel in an election leaflet might break electoral law which is what would bring the police in (they got brought in for a similar reason in Newport last year iirc).
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1190400/MAIL-COMMENT-How-longer-zombies-limp-on.html
What is it with the obsession with Johnson?
He is not Prime Ministerial
He knows it
He has said he is not up to the job
Harman is much more likely to succeed as an interim leader - there can’t be a coronation this time. There will be riots!
143 SeantT. No it’s real - they showed TV footage of the incident on Newnight.
143. Nope. On video on Newsnight.
137 Balls would surely not become chancellor. i just cant see it. he likes tokenism, maybe he’ll appoint Diane Abbott to be Chancellor as the first black female to hold the post? you come to think of it, could be better than Balls.
Expect a massive thumbs down from the City if Balls is appointed.
64
From Chapter 4 of the Labour Party Rule Book:
E. Procedure in a vacancy
i. When the party is in government and the
party leader is prime minister and the
party leader, for whatever reason,
becomes permanently unavailable, the
Cabinet shall, in consultation with the
NEC, appoint one of its members to serve
as party leader until a ballot under these
rules can be carried out.
The Times Leader.
Comes out for the Tories on the Euro’s.
‘The European elections have been dominated by other issues. No party has made a convincing case for the purpose of the EU but the Conservative Party is the only viable choice’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6418504.ece
144 David H
We should now start seriously considering the appointments Alan Johnson would make, if the putsch is successful.
Clearly not Balls for Chancellor.
Probably Mandelson to FO (part of the deal?)
146 Everyone will read *this* Guardian editorial.
136. We get a lot more away from the site’s stated subject than local election results regularly.
I wish he would go, as he is useless and is gifting the Tories huge poll leads that they don’t deserve.
But he won’t. Labour seem incapable to my eyes of actually knifing him. The best hope is he axes someone like Darling who then spills the beans on his leadership. Even then I wouldn’t bet on Brown leaving. Hope I am wrong. I was once.
I see no reason why Brown should go. There is no better alternative Prime Minister, whether that’s Johnson or Cameron.
143. Re that picture. The hand and suit cuff could be Vazeline.
143 - Was Gordo out campaigning with the BNP, could easily be mistaken with all those skinheads around him!
144. I think Ed Balls as chancellor is the icing on the cake. I’m mean who the hell would think that is a good idea other than Brown, Blinky and Cooper? Will anyone here make the case for Balls as CoE?
140 - Following that logic, theres more value in the Chancellor and Home Secretary markets perhaps.
If Brown going is evens, then Ed Balls is a false price.
And As for Home Secretary.
Hilary Benn is 6/1 on Betfair but 20/1 with Ladbrokes.
Will Hatty step back? She would be better than Johnson. Why should she?
The worst news for Brown, though, is that even Tim seems to have given up the ghost in making the case for Brown.
Cue The Doors:
“This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end
No safety or surprise, the end
Ill never look into your eyes…again”
Re the D-Day memorial fiasco.
Has it occurred to Brown that it might have been safer to have the Queen with him in France. The way things are going, he might find she’s done him out of a job by the time he gets back.
131. Risky move for the SNP to basically say “we want the Tories back in” with the Glasgow NE by-election approaching.
Remember 1979.
149. Spin.
Working class boy done good to con the proles they don’t hate us - which they have done since all those Essex C2s voted for Thatch - thereby failing in their historic duty to make a revolution so marxists could be Dukes and Barons in a worker’s paradise aka slave camp - and thereby requiring a whole new shiny multi-cultural working class so they can try again hence the open door immigration policy.
Simple.
Incidentally, what’s this “the Guardian tells the Labour movement what to do” nonsense in the lead post?
Perhaps in the minds of committed Tories left-leaning people hang on the Guardian’s every word, but not in the real world.
155/162 - Is that a snap? (I’m new on those games)
I notice that they have leaked to Sky that Louise Casey ( Who I really like) is to be ennobled and made a Home Office Minister. She’ll be in effect Minister for the BNP and could do well on the ground and on Telly. However the timming is very odd. Suggests very grim canvasing for Labour and a desperate attempt at generating forward momentum for Gordon. I’m still in charge. look I’m appointing Ministers.
Ferrets in a sack, continued…
Jacqui Smith’s resignation was leaked by Number 10 before she could tell Home Office staff she was leaving
By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982
Rumours are spreading that Downing Street leaked the details of Jacqui Smith’s resignation without informing the Home Secretary of the timing of their disclosure, leading to widespread confusion across Number 10 and other government departments yesterday.
Smith had informed the Prime Minister two months ago of her intention to leave the cabinet at the time of the next reshuffle, but the information apparently was leaked to Sky News by Downing Street officials without the Home Secretary’s prior knowledge or consent.
Sky News seemingly learned of Ms Smith’s resignation from sources within Number 10 and reported the story at about 12:40pm yesterday afternoon. But after 1pm, the BBC said that other Downing Street sources were still denying Smith’s departure, calling the story “speculation.”
If this is right, there was either a severe lack of communication within Downing Street, or certain figures inside Number 10 are colluding against each other.
Last night, the Home Secretary was left in the embarrassing position of having to apologise to Home Office colleagues for not informing them of her decision to leave before it was released to the press.
http://www.labourlist.org/jacqui_smiths_resignation_was_leaked_by_number_10
161 - “Will anyone here make the case for Balls as CoE?” Will anyone here make the case for Alan Johnson as PM, other than that he’s reasonably recognisable as a human being and doesn’t seem to be barking?
166 - Alex Salmond seems to be muddled about his whereabouts.
This one could have legs.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6418738.ece
Don’t know if someone posted:
“Gordon Brown struggles to keep a grip in face of huge reshuffle”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6419079.ece
17O I suspect that Smith has bigger things to apologise to them for.
172 - clutching at straws time.
If Smith wants to apologise about things she can start with ID cards.
173. Times article contains this: ‘Yesterday Mr Miliband again suggested that he would like to spend four more years at the Foreign Office.’
Tell him, someone.
88.”Armitage Shanked says:
2/6/2009 at 11:01 pm
Hague doing himself no favours on newsnight”
Nah, Paxo was just up for a bit of Tory bashing tonight, he was at with Hattie last night. Seriously, when he moved to Ashcroft, I just thought, Hague why bother answering, just take your medicine. This is the type of Paxo interview that he does just for his own enjoyment, no rhythm or reason to it. And you are left at the end thinking, what was that all about?
117.Wibbler, don’t get too excited…He has done a Tory and a Labour politician this week, your turn next.
123.”Easterross says:
2/6/2009 at 11:10 pm
Looks as though the SNP may be laying down a vote of no confidence as in 1979″
Easterross, I had forgotten that. And I was only reading something about it recently.
124.Afleitch, got another Tory doing the same in your seat. Now, how about waiting to see if the favour is returned elsewhere first?
177 Four more days will be pushing it, Bananaman.
173 - This is a government that is flying apart at the seams. I’ve never known anything like it. I’m scouring my history to try to think of a precedent for this but can’t.
171. Surely it’s an improvement on the current situation?
Brown staying on for another year threatens the end of the Labour party. The Guardian has this right. The final months of a Brown administration will be so painful and dysfunctional that a generation of voters could easily adopt the Lib Dems as the main opposition.
To stay as one of the top two parties the party has to pull the plug on Brown now, and cobble together a manifesto based on avoiding drastic public spending cuts (which the Tories are pretty certain to do) and constitutinoal reform. They’d lose, but they would then have a chance of rebuilding as the main opposition.
140 Thanks for pointing to Stan James. I’ve taken a bit of Johnson 3/1, even if it does seem late in day.
178
I hear you Christina. But as a trade off I got an SNP supporting friend of mine to vote Tory in East Renfrewshire when the time comes
More of that sort of arrangement I say!
178. I’m no Tory but I must agree about Paxo. I was none the wiser after the Hague piece, that said I am often none the wiser with Paxo. A poor interviewer - always more heat than light.
# 172 Is it by that self proclaimed SNP hater Angus MacLeod?
If so the only legs it will have will be wooden.
177.Prodicus, how did Milliband get to sit in one of the great offices of State? He always looks like a boy out of his league in that post, no diplomatic skills at all. He doesn’t appear to a have politically astute bone in his body, or the courage to follow through with his ambitions by taking the leadership off Brown. He certainly lacks Brown’s killer instinct, or his ability to surround himself with cunning attack dogs, more than capable of undermining his political opponents in a bid to hide his own weaknesses. Over promoted, and over hyped.
182. About sums it up. But he won’t go There will be another relaunch and yawn, a conference speech about some rubbish moral nonsense, and he’ll make up a few points and then… Labour will get routed next spring.
Here’s something interesting from Google Insights:
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=british%20national%20party%2Cgreen%20party%2Cukip%2Clabour%20party%2Cconservative%20party&geo=GB&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q
173. The picture accompanying that article is horrific!
184.Good stuff Afleitch. See if anyone will swap with my Aunt will you? She is going SNP next time to boot out Labour, did the same in 2007.
176. She can continue with reclassifying cannabis. Illiberal, unenforceable, playing to the baying crowd. The law being passion free from reason.
186 - and Magnus Linklater who hates Alex Salmond with a passion. His Mother who was a staunch nationalist from Orkney will be birling in her grave so fast if it could be tapped into could light up the whole of Kirkwall.
What do Lib Dems think of this? They have - for the first time in 80 years - a real and genuine chance of becoming a major player once again.
But to do it means the death of the Labour party which has mercilessly bummed them for the same eight decades.
I can see why the Mark Seniors of this world would rather talk about Evil Tories in Taunton. Much less Oedipal and confusing.
Right I’m off, probably won’t be posting much tomorrow up and out early with last minute leafletting. Will the government fall before breakfast tomorrow?
194
Clegg, Huhne etc. are all ambitious characters. They must realise this is a critical moment - one that could spark a chain of events that see them sitting round the Cabinet table at some point in the next decade.
190-A bigger picture just for you!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1190242/Rats-desert-sinking-ship-Shamed-Jacqui-Smith-leads-ministers-scrambling-exit.html
194. Cautious optimism. No-one wants to say ‘go back to your constituencies and prepare for government’.
187 ChristinaD - that is one of the great mysteries of the universe. OTOH, the worst-kept secret about Labour Party political appointments is that it’s all a matter of who you know, who your father knows, how much your connections know about the whereabouts of corpses … its a mediaeval barony.
194 Quiet aren’t they?
189 try it like this to compare it little bit more fairly.
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=british%20national%20party%2Cgreen%20party%2CUK%20independence%20party%2Clabour%20party%2Cconservative%20party&geo=GB&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q
Statistics never lie!
185.I agree Bobajob. A wee while ago he did a wonderful extended programme and interview with three members of our armed forces, one a who had suffered a horrific injury, a TA girl, and another soldier. It was like Paxo was transformed from that aggressive political butt kicker into a proper interviewer, and with a real aim to bring out the true story of these soldiers in their own words. Utterly superb piece of journalism, I wish he could be like that on Newsnight more often, we might actual learn a damn sight more than we normally do.
He totally discarded his attack dog persona with Michael Mates recently on the results of a committee enquiry surrounding a sensitive issue. We got more information and better insight at the end of it.
;loved this comment on the guardian editorial on cif…(much handwriging, all the lefties now hate Labour - quite some achievment)
Even yet, this article talks about his personal morality, when it’s clear how he clawed his way to the top now. It talks about his impressive reaction to the banks, when it’s clear that he helped build the bubble and rode it as a means to hide the structural failures in his fiscal policy…for a while.
This man was never fit to be in charge of the nation’s finances, and he doesn’t possess the morality or the vision to lead a nation.
His greatest achievement has been to become known as the worst prime minister in the memory of most people.
It isn’t just Brown. This man is just one turd in a sea of shit.
Still no Bungling Boris Expense story!
Completely disasterous headlines for Brown. When the tabloids, particularly The Sun start putting politics stories on their front page, you know that that if the sh*t hasn’t yet hit the fan, its certainly about to!
What no post for over half an hour?
Eek I was looking at the last page. Time for bed methinks
198.Further to that, its not long ago since we were hoping for nothing more than holding our current level.
165. The conversation at the next private meeting between HMQ and *her* Prime Minister:
“For fuck sake Gordon, you are an embarrassment, call a general election and get it over with”.
204 - From which I deduce that it’s not as big a story as the chaos at the heart of Government that emerged today. But then few stories are.
204 - perhaps they can’t spell petronella
165. The conversation at the next private meeting between HMQ and *her* Prime Minister:
“For f@ck sake Gordon, you are an embarrassment, call a general election and get it over with”.
I know the Comres poll was absolute lunacy.
But on minor parties.
If Gordon Brown is forced to go by minor party success then the chance of an early election are massive. In that case, the minor parties won’t have receded from the public consciousness as much as expected.
How many UKIP and Green GE candidates are there? And where will they be standing?
The hitherto inchoate, impossible idea of Brown actually being defenestrated, bluntly told to get out, finding himself locked out of the Cabinet Room, bereft of the power he has always craved and believes is rightfully his (everyone else being thick and unworthy), wandering in the political wilderness and wondering WTF just happened, is finally beginning to resolve into reality in my head.
It’s absolutely lovely. I know it may not happen yet but it feels soooo good that I think I’ll have a snifter anyway.
Queen. Elephant gun. Buck House lawn. No jury would convict.
If the next week goes disastrously, is there a chance that Brown might say he would not fight the next GE but he would remain PM up to the GE?
In this scenario, Brown would pre-announce his resignation as Labour leader (like Blair did). Brown would then remain PM during the Labour leadership election. As soon as the new Labour leader was elected, Brown would dissolve parliament and call the GE.
So the new Labour leader would not actually become PM pre GE. Brown would remain PM up to the GE but he would take no part in the election campaign.
I think this would be quite a neat way for Brown to exit - ie he would minimise his loss of face as he wouldn’t have actually been deposed as PM pre GE and he avoids losing the GE.
I think Brown may well go for this as his best option.
202. It’s the attack jobs people tend to remember though. And a dodge like ‘Have you asked him…’ ‘I have no reason to believe he’s not’ is a red rag to a bull.
I’m intrigued why Hague wouldn’t answer the Q. If he hasn’t asked him then why not say so? If he has asked him and been told yes why not say so? If he asked him and told no then he’s lying in his answer as it is.
Seems little advantage to evading the question
With Dalek type voice
G A M E O V E R
201 Fitaloon - Clever!
194,196,198,200.
Its a bit of a bummer for the Lib Dems that all of this is happening at a Euro election. PR lists on huge constituiencies are more or less designed to dissolve the Lib Dem coalition as the recent GLA list showed.
(a) no need to vote tactically
(b) No local champion motif for your incumbants
(c) no equivalent of Euro Dog poo to clean up.
The polling is very odd as by and large it has us up on the 2004 Euros despite us polling nationally a bit below the 2005 GE scores.
In addition “control” of Cornwall, Devon and Somserset looks screwed with Bristol being the only possible compensatory “gain”
Now you are probably asking “Who cares?” hwne the evil twin of the centre left is taking a knife to his own throat but in aprty of localists and Euro fanatics quite a few do.
I also suspect Cowley Street is losing a bit of sleep about the gap between its Euro percentage and the Greens.
213 - it would make a bit of a mess though. Picking the bits up would take some time.
219 get the corgis to clear it up
219. Fair point, well made.
220 - saves buying dog food I suppose. With that good night all.
ChristinaD - know anyone who wants a vote swap for Glasgow South .. Tory vote wated here.
I’m surprised none of the media seem to have yet cottoned on to the fact that Brown will be out of country on Saturday hi-jacking this D-Day commemoration. The parallels to Thatch being out the country as her party turned on her might be uncanny.
All is quiet.
Only pbers read the Guardian.
224 - Now I hadn’t cottoned onto that, but that has major implications about the timing of any reshuffle. If it’s not Friday, it’ll be late night Saturday/Sunday, or Monday. I think Monday is too late.
194,196,198,200
I also think quite a few Lib Dems are mesmerised by the suggestions of an AV + refferendum. My instincts are that this could be a complete disaster but as it would entrench about 80 Lib Dem MP’s into the system in perpetuity they are prepared to forget that we were ruthlessly shafted by Labour last time over this.
Looks like Christina could set up her own poltical match making service north of the border. She could run it with marcia.
228 - sounds good to me ‘o)
YS LibDems need assertiveness training courses. Don’t understand why they haven’t done it on expenses. It is too late now. A missed opportunity.
I can remember the morning of the Tory Leadership Vote in 1995, The Daily Mail (The Guardian’s mirror image), ran a front page “TIME TO DITCH THE CAPTAIN” with a cartoon of the “SS Toryanic” hitting a Blair shaped iceberg. The perceived wisdom at the time was that Major could not survive this. Well it failed to have it’s desired effect and I wonder if this front page will as well!
Hmmm. Just watched the Sky News coverage of stories that Darling will resign pre-emptively and that Purnell is considering his position. The sense is building that this Govt. could basically be finished in days.
My guess is this will be a pretty historic week - enjoy and make some profits on the markets!
Case for Johnson
1) He’s English and might be able to save some English seats
2) He’s likeable and down to earth (unlike the aloof Brown)
3) He’s untainted by expenses
4) He’s reasonably competent (or at least no major disasters on his watch)
5) He would be a better communicator then Brown
6) He’s popular with some in the media
213 No jury could convict.
231 Interesting memeory.
Love the bit about the Guardian’s mirror image!
One of the letters in the Guardian today has the following
Do I notice an increasing amount of anti-Gordon Brown sentiment in the Guardian’s editorial content of late? Whatever his faults, Mr Brown strikes me as a man of integrity - something increasingly rare in UK politics nowadays. While we’re at it, does anybody seriously believe any of the other political parties would have avoided the credit crunch - or indeed handled it any better now that it’s here?
Stuart Aitchison
Hove, East Sussex
Mr Aitchison may now have his answer!
231. And it was far easier for the Tories to get rid of Major than it will be for Labour to get rid of Brown.
But things are differant now from 1995. In 1995 I don’t think, as bad as things were, the Tories were under the same pressure. I don’t think the media was as relentless. 24 hour rolling news and the internet were both in their infancy. And with Major, I think there was a general acceptence that he wasn’t really the problem. Most people, I think, felt that that nobody could do any better than Major in 1995, where-as right now, the feeling is growing that nobody could do worse than Brown.
232 Arb Seeker
What was the source for Darling’s possible pre-emptive resignation? Was it “friends of” or “sources close to” or “a Cabinet minister” or “an informed source”?
Darling could probably do a fairly plausible impression of Geoffrey Howe.
“John Rentoul: This isn’t the start of the coup. Just the pre-convulsions…”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-this-isnt-the-start-of-the-coup-just-the-preconvulsions-1695308.html
232 – “Purnell is considering his position”
I must have missed this, what’s to consider?
“Steve Richards: This is the most dangerous week in the PM’s career”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-this-is-the-most-dangerous-week-in-the-pms-career-1695470.html
You do wonder what planet some people live on,
“Mr Brown strikes me as a man of integrity - something increasingly rare in UK politics nowadays.”
230. Its also very inconsiderate, neigh selfish,for the Labour Party to die at precisely the most inconvenient moment. I’d be very surprised if Lib Dem Membership was still over 60000 and we have the Blue Tidal wave to deal with in so many held seats.
Its also been a traumatic parliament with two Leadership executions, Nicks rocky start and then the Rennard Euthanasia.
A clearer path from the Iraq war high to this political crisis might well have seen the party polling in the mid to high twenties by now but its a counterfactual we’ll never know about.
“Gordon Brown: Ours is a country being lifted up every day – by volunteers”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/gordon-brown-ours-is-a-country-being-lifted-up-every-day-ndash-by-volunteers-1695318.html
241 No sh*t Sherlock! Steve Richards, specialist subject ’stating the bleeding obvious’
223.LTL, will look for an SNP voter or two on my match, they are lurking about.
228.SallyC,
I am up for it, I remember those Lab/Libdem love ins on tactical voting match making on the radio phone ins so well.
409- To Socrates, from the previous thread:
Here’s an article detailing Obama’s attempt to screw over bondholders, in violation of the principles of U.S. bankruptcy law, in order to reward his friends in the United Auto Workers union:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/justice-for-all-except-bondholders/article1129647/
With apologies to the band EMF - “You’re UNELECTABLE!”
original song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnH9NreW95Y
Mike is lucky that his site has come to maturity in such momentous political times. Imagine if PB had come along in 1998, for example. Those were some dreary and uninteresting years politically, compared to today.
The other differance with the Tory position in 1995 to the Labour position now, is that I think by 1995 the Tories had pretty well given up and were accepting their fate. They knew that the eventual political cycle had turned on them as it always, inevitably must in a democracy. They’d had a really good 16 year run (as it was then) but the end was coming.
Labour are in a differant place, or certainly the left wing media is. I think the left wing media STILL believe they have time to turn things around. I think they STILL believe if they can get rid of Brown, gerry-mander the voting system and cobble together a coalition with the Liberal Demorcrats, that the whole New Labour project can still be salvaged. They have a belief and an entitlement in their own right to govern that is quite stunning in its arrogance and it stems from the fact that they are “right-thinking” and everyone that disagrees with them is an extremist in some way and that to keep the proejct going, the end justifys the means. I believe its completely wrong and misguided, and whatever they do Labour is destined to lose the next election quite comfortably, but the left’s lust to cling on to power to the bitter end is certainly going to provide some great entertainment.
246 - thats 2 of us then, me and OH - I asked him first, honest.
215.Corporeal, go read Ashcroft’s book on dirty politics….they have been trying to get him for years, good luck though. But with that Brown business hanging around like a bad smell, I would suggest the Libdems tidy up their own backyard first.
218.YS, what in your opinion is the worst scenario for Clegg result wise on Thursday?
250. Oh, I think there were plenty enough delusional Tories around in 1995. In fact there were still one or two around on 1 May 1997!
233 You have set extremely low standards - which might be alright for a Labour leader but not a PM.
He has been at best a medicore minister who capitulated to the unions on pensions - and right now we need someone to make some tough choices.
He doesn’t even sound especially good when pressed and doesn’t have a wide range of knowledge which needs to be encyclopedic to cope with PMQs. Nice manners though.
Hatty has a much better chance of being on top of her brief and being able to speak about it.
252. I’m not expecting them to ‘get Ashcroft’, but I am wondering to Hague’s logic in answering the question that way and what scenario he thought that answer was best.. Best I can come up with is he couldn’t remember if he had or not.
Individually, I’m sure your right. Yet collectively, no, I think they knew in their heart of hearts that the game was up. Otherwise Major would have been got rid of one way or another…
Gallup poll shows overwhelming opposition to closing Guantanamo, as well as relocating prisoners to the U.S.:
“Overall, 65 percent of those surveyed oppose shutting Gitmo, versus 32 percent who say it should be closed. According to the poll’s internal numbers, large majorities of men oppose closing the prison, large majorities of women oppose it, large majorities of white people oppose it, large majorities of non-white people oppose it, people with graduate degrees oppose it, and people who didn’t finish high school oppose it. Pretty much everybody.
For Obama, the key numbers are the ones that break down opinion by political party. Ninety-one percent of Republicans oppose shutting Gitmo. Sixty-eight percent of independents oppose it, too. The only group that favors shutting down the prison is Democrats, and that is by a relatively narrow 53 percent to 42 percent margin.”
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/New-poll-results-are-devastating-for-Obamas-Gitmo-plan-46734382.html
On Guantanamo, Obama has two options: take a hugely unpopular course by closing the prison and relocating the prisoners to U.S. prisons as promised, or break his explicit promise to do so and risk the condemnation of the international community. Guantanamo, alongside GM, could be two of the early albatrosses wheeling around Obama’s head come the midterm elections next year.
Thinking more about the Labour party political broadcast earlier, one thing that struck me was how it highlights the difference between what the Labour party should be about and what it actually has become. If the Tories had been in power for the last ten years then it would be quite a good broadcast, but actually Labour have created the mess themselves
1) Unemployment. A good Labour ideal is to have low unemployment but now unemployment is shooting up thanks to Gordon Brown’s poor economic policies
2) Support for families facing recession. A good Labour ideal
but why do they need this support? Because Labour screwed the economy.
3) Helping pensioners. A good Labour ideal but a lot of pensioners are struggling due to high council tax which Brown has done nothing to curb
4)Low crime. A good Labour ideal but violent crime has soared under Labour.
232. “Purnell is considering his position…”
Oh please let that be true. When all’s said and done I only really have three basic priorities -
1) Independence for Scotland.
2) The premature end of James Purnell’s political career.
3) The imprisonment of David Aaronovitch on some trumped-up charges.
255. Ashcroft is refusing to say what his status is (which is his right as all of these matters are confidential) which means, when Conservative politicians are questioned on his status they have to dance around the subject as Hague did tonight. I’m sure it’ll plague Cameron at an election campaign. To be honest, the sooner the Tories are in power and Ashcroft and his millions can be sent back to Bermuda, the better….
257. Weren’t albatrosses supposed to be signs of good luck? (hence why you shouldn’t shoot one?)
260 - I think you Belize!
233 I don’t expect Johnson to actually be PM for long though. I think he might make a reasonable leader of the opposition to try to cleanse Labour’s wounds (as in the Michael Howard role). Hattie would also do a reasonable job of that but her rather strident tone could get a bit much after a while.
26o I don’t know why people have such a probelm with Ashcroft. He is well behaved, doesn’t interfere with policy and he is extremely charitable in a wide with his cash.
http://dungeekin.blogspot.com/2009/06/breaking-top-doctors-called-to.html
“Spinal expert Professor Stiffen Backbone, leading the team, said, “it’s quite clearly an emergency, and the Goonvernment have done absolutely the right thing by calling in the experts at Stoke Mandeville. What we are seeing is unprecedented - the Government appears to be paralysed from the neck down, and we are also seeing evidence of neurological damage as well”.
252. I think Clegg will be Ok but there is one Nightmare Senario I’ll come to in a moment. However the upside is
- Both Kennedy and Ashdown came fourth in Euro Elections so expectations are quite low and a drubbing will be shrugged off.
- The likely County causulties of Cornwall, Somserset and devon are all either lonmgstanding administrations or have made local cock ups so defeat there can’t be laid at his door.
- The likely Gain in Bristol is i understand counting on thursday night so he can get up there in time for the Friday TV news.
- the absence of fring party candidates in many councils will i suspect infalte our vote.
- Nearly all the counties are Tory anyway so we have incumbancy to run against which should limit headline losses considerably.
The only way this can really go tits up for clegg is if the voodoo comres poll and anecdotal evidence proves correct. ie there really is a big Green Surge. %th behind Lab,UKIp and Green would look bad. But crucially we’d actually start losing list seats to the greens. having a Green MEP in your region as a long term competitor is one thing. being replaced by them is quite another.
258. Labours whole campaign now and at the general election is/will be a core vote campaign. So it’ll be negative, negative, negative all the way to try and frighten their core vote to come out and prevent a meltdown. The Tories have done this, quite sucessfully actually, at the last three elections. Remember New Labour, New Danger and the demon eyes in 97? This is what all parties do that are on the losing side of the arguement.
Red m
LOL.
Perhaps two and three could be linked on some way.
On the Sky reports of pre-emptive resignations, I think it’s from tomorrow’s newspapers:
Darling (Guardian)
Purnell (Mirror)
Of course, it’s the usual “friends of” formulation…
264 - Is he not the creator of CrimeStoppers? I remember reading about he wanted to fund a new tv show based on CrimeStoppers and got stopped by the powers that be for some reason to do with his money funding the project (while the government use our money to fund their own propaganda about Plastic Policemen and Immigration Services).
264. I don’t have a problem with him personally, but his reluctance to just come out and say what his status is WILL give Cameron a needless headache at the election, as we saw with Hague ridiculous dance with Paxman tonight….
Interesting little factoid from Dizzy
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/06/cost-of-government.html
During the last five years, the Department of Work and Pensions spent:
£32.3 million on furniture
£59.7 million on management conferences
£11 million on printer ink cartridges
best part of 60 big ones on conferences?
267. Yup. Wall to wall el Tories will scrap the NHS and let your kids die.
272 - WTF, £60 mill on conferences! Makes that £2 mill a year on taxis at the Home Office look like small change!
270 He is. In fact I think he still funds it. He does a lot charitably which more than makes up for any tax he may or may not pay.
I think he has arranged to give well over half of his estate away to good causes rather than his kids on death. Mind you, a fraction of his estate might still bring a smile to most faces.
271. Who cares? Not sure anyone does.
“I back Brown. And this is why”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/03/european-elections-gordon-brown-globalisation
It’s a pity he can’t vote!
You know you are in massive trouble when the Currant Bun start doing front pages ripping the piss out of you.
“Blunderbird is go!”
Wonder what others crackers they will come up over the next week or so?
Right where are we tonight.
Smith goes, and all the journalists are whittering about, is who leaked it. Then we heard that Watson was going, what was all that about? He is reported to still be advising Brown and will help with campaigning. So no change there.
4 MP’s got the chop from this silly Labour kangeroo court, and after 3 of them said they were stepping down anyway? Gibson is the interesting one, sounds a tad vindictive to me. If he is going, then I expect certain Cabinet Ministers to receive the same verdict, if not, hypocrites. His local association is not happy, but sorry, this is Labour so who cares what they think, no one has before.
PLP meeting last night that had Skinner shouting, one MP opening with the F*** word, another impersonating Jones out of Dad’s army shouting ‘don’t panic’, a normally loyal brownite doing just that, while Harman stated the bleedin obvious.
More MP’s standing down at the next GE, Darling coming out in the sunshine to give an interview with a look of a man who has had the weight of the world lifted off his shoulders….
Americans being mischievous and offering to get the Queen to France, Prince Charles stepping into sort out the mess, and proving that Buck Palace can really pull one off against Downing Street these day with effortless ease. And all it took was Charles and the French to lias while bypassing Downing Street.
The Downing Street bunker spinning like mad, it was Blears that leaked the info on Smith, it was the Palace and the media to blame for the D-Day PR disaster, and oh Brown visited a school again and his makeup has gone a very toxic orange.
Hague Paxoed on Newnight, and Andrew Neil being naughty setting up Porter and Howard for a sparring match. Remember that Neil is in charge of the Spectator, and they let Guido have his say in the magazine. Might be the same owners, but different people in charge of both publications. Guardian joining the queue demanding Brown should go tonight. Journalists too busy pontificating without much clue as to what is actually happening right now. Clue, Brown is in a worse position than Thatcher or Major were at the end. At least their governments were still functioning….
Have I missed anything.
Another “positive” story for El gordo (who truly IS a clown)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1190288/Prince-Charles-attend-D-Day-65th-anniversary.html
“Humiliation for Brown as Prince Charles agrees to attend D-Day anniversary”
Best not read the comments Gordo
Very funny:
“French officials, confident that they are absolved from any failure of entente cordiale, are bemused by the turn of events. “The planning for the original D-Day was mostly British, I believe,” one official has said. “We can only be grateful that there was a different British Government… in 1944″. Too right.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/lizhunt/5431405/This-D-Day-fiasco-was-made-at-No-10.html
278. Just another day in the mad house Christina. Time to go to bed, get some sleep and then get up and do it all over again tomorrow.
278 Or as Lamont said “…in Office but not in Power”
232.”Arb Seeker says:
3/6/2009 at 12:14 am
Hmmm. Just watched the Sky News coverage of stories that Darling will resign pre-emptively and that Purnell is considering his position. The sense is building that this Govt. could basically be finished in days.”
Ahh, missed your post Arb Seeker, my next question was going to be if any of the sisterhood would follow Jackie Smith, or would the biggie be Darling??? I thought earlier today that he might do the same, and even step down as an MP at the next GE. As I said, Brown in a bigger mess than either Thatcher or Major. Will those resignations be enough if they happen, or will he really wait around to see if the backbenchers are tough enough to find that 70 names…??
What ever happens, he is already fatally wounded now, and we haven’t even gone to the polls yet.
143. My Stalingrad comment got published LOL!!!!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6418703.ece?Submitted=true
” Time to go to bed, get some sleep and then get up and do it all over again tomorrow.”
Yes, great isn’t it
214. Wouldn’t work. Apart from being a constitutional novelty - I doubt “convention” would permit it - Brown staying PM up to polling day would confuse the electorate entirely and nullify any perceived gain.
In our history there has always been an incumbent PM seeking re-election. I believe the power of dissolution is welded to this constitutionally.
280.C, brilliant repost to the earlier dig from a UK official about the War time French government. The Americans are having fun too at Brown’s expense, doesn’t look like anyone rates him or his team at all.
283. Don’t underestimate the power of BNP gains in the Euros. Firstly in the current climate the media will latch onto the fact that the Reichstag is about to burn even though it isn’t.
Secondly the effect on Labour activists. I saw a pile doing anti BNP leafleting in a city centre today. they all looked humiliated that things had come to this.
Oh I really hope all the cabinet step down, leaving Brown hiding the Bunker and Balls in the role of Comical Ali!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdIsBfBumXk
ChristinaD: Re 278.
What did Paxo do to Hague?
Well it’s all kicking off isn’t it? What odds now that Brown goes before the next General Election?
Hills go 5/4 he goes and 4/7 he stays. If you think there is going to be a successful coup then the 5/4 is the place to bet. Compared to their 6/4 Johnson to be next Labour Leader, it looks a steal.
I still think Brown will hang on. Just. I think Hills prices are about right on this at present, ie 4/6, 6/4 with no mark up. In which case the 8/1 Hills have on offer for Harman to be next Labour leader looks stand out value. I’ve had some.
I’ve backed Osborne to be next Chancellor at 15/8 with Paddy Power. Osborne now 10/1 with Ladbrokes. Darling could announce his departure tomorrow if the rumours are true. I wish I could cancel my initial bet on Osborne. But 10/1 Osborne? Is it that certain that Darling is “toast”? I’ve had a bit more on Osborne at 10/1. A fool and his money, ay?
266.Thanks YS. Interesting times right now, and the Euro’s are not really going to tell us what will happen in a GE, when some of the fringe parties become less relevant.
290. Apparently asked him if he’d asked Ashcroft about his status, Hague said ‘he had no reason to believe he wasn’t UK registered’. Repeat ad Howardum.
290.jsfl, check out my post at 178. Paxman in a self indulgent mood, and wishing to amuse himself. Did the same to Harman last night.
293 How dreary…..
278 Christina D. That’s a great summary. What I find interesting is that I’m beginning to guess that this is the end but a) not quite certain and b) not sure how it will pan out. Fascinating days.
294. Thanks Christina
I think your right about the Libdems needing to watch out. Paxo will be asking them ad infinitum about the Brown donation………
288.YS, yes indeed. But that is the big divide for us up North. A bad night up here for Labour would be a triumph down South right now. UKIP and the BNP just don’t rate because we have four party politics. So lots of choice.
Probably straw clutching here but four further reasons Brown may keep Darling as Chancellor:
1. A pre-resignation by Darling tomorrow could be the tipping point in the Brown endgame.
2. Brown may have come to realise that to promote Balls would be too unpopular a move with the PLP and therefore too risky and
3. He may prefer Darling as Chancellor to AnyoneButBalls.
4. Brown won’t want Clegg to claim yet another scalp.
Despite the above arguments, I accept Darling is now browned bread if not decisively toast.
If Darling and Purnell both pre-announce their resignation from the Cabinet, Brown will be toast. In the middle of a recession losing two of the three most critical Ministers (CofE, Enterprise,DWP) is a disaster. Add to that the ministerial losses of today, including Smith, and Brown cannot survive.
It all reminds me of the words of the late great Jim Morrison (imagine Balls and Brown in conversation)
This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end
No safety or surprise, the end
Still Darling and Purnell have still got to do the deed……
296.C, biggest clue to how bad things have become, the D-Day celebrations.. Seriously, that shows how badly the operation in Downing Street has imploded. Brown is too busy fighting for his premiership, we have a major recession, who is running the country right now?
Parris earlier today when asked by a presenter, ‘does this feel like the last days of Major’? His reply, ‘No, its much worse’.
Both Thatcher and Major were fighting for their jobs, but their governments were still functioning, look at the legacy that the Tories left the incoming Labour government. They made the right decisions at that time for the long term health of our economy.
They had nothing to lose at the end, except power. Most in the Cabinet were still very honourable old fashioned politicians, it was a matter of pride.
Major gave a fantastic interview a few years ago, if I find it, I will post a link to it. Really worth watching. Sums up his most damning put down of Brown yet. ‘Any comparisons to my government flatter Gordon Brown’.
Case for Johnson
1) He’s English and might be able to save some English seats
2) He’s likeable and down to earth (unlike the aloof Brown)
3) He’s untainted by expenses
4) He’s reasonably competent (or at least no major disasters on his watch)
5) He would be a better communicator then Brown
6) He’s popular with some in the media
to add to that
7) He didn’t go to university
8 He’s had a proper job
9) He looks good in a suit + hair, smile, accent = female vote
303. A friend of mine who works for an NHS trust said of Johnson this evening: he’s quite popular because he hasn’t done anything. Not like …
295. Not trying to defend His Royal Smugness Paxman, but it was Hague’s own fault - he fell into the same trap as Howard of very transparently trying to answer a different question than the one he’d been asked. All he had to say was ‘no, I haven’t asked him, because there was no need to’, or something like that.
My hunch is that Yellow Submarine’s pessimism about the LD vote is misplaced. The movement in the polls towards the LDs in recent days - some of it more dramatic than others - is real. The Tories are treading water at their just under 40% mark and Labour are tanking.
Of course the Euro effect will hit them - but it will also hit the Tories and more to the point Labour. The most likely ‘big’ story of failure will be Labour coming 6th after UKIP and the Greens if you ask me. Labour would then be in the s hit and be caught on the twin forks of either being bumped into a GE (which they would tank again in) or refuse a GE and be harried continually about it from both the LDs and the Tories.
From a LD pov this would be a far better place to fight a GE from than where it was 6 months ago.
Looking at Iain Dale’s latest blog on a Labourlist story tonight, its sounding like Smith’s departure might have been released in as chaotic a manner as Ruth Kelly’s. Are we sure that Damian McBride has left the building….. Why won’t a journalist do some checking to confirm that the guy really is out of the Brownite operation?
Know what, who cares anymore?? This government is crumbling around our ears, and someone needs to get a grip! And sad to say, it ain’t going to be our political lobby going by their present performance. What happened to good old fashioned journalism, don’t wait for the story to land in your laps in the shape of a frigging briefing. Go and find the story, and run with it!
“Assassins, chaos and Gordon Brown’s nightmare”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1190464/Assassins-chaos-Gordon-Browns-nightmare.html
307 “And sad to say, it ain’t going to be our political lobby going by their present performance.”
Couldn’t agree more. The relationship between the lobby and gov’t is the cosiest gentleman’s club of all.
304.Sorry Red Meteor, an earlier poster nailed it. Hague is not at liberty to tell Paxman, its up to the lazy git to ask Ashcroft himself. Hague did the best he could in the circumstances. And lets be honest, with the action packed day we had today in politics, what the hell did Ashcroft’s tax status have to do with it?? He knew that Hague was as categorical as he could be, and he ignored it.
308 - Perhaps that relationship could be made more transpeeeeerent while they’re at it.
‘SNP makes impressive gains as voters punish Labour’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/alancochrane/5427994/SNP-makes-impressive-gains-as-voters-punish-Labour.html
Top of the thread says if Mr. Brown does not agree to step down then he should be, “cut loose”. There’s no need to spell out what that means.
Yes there is. What does it mean? If he does not “agree” to step down, then how would they get rid of him? What does “he should be cut loose” mean?
BBC mentions the findings of a poll, but not v.i.:
A YouGov online survey of 2,072 people published on Tuesday suggests the turnout for the European elections could be much higher than usual.
It suggests 50% of the electorate plan to vote on Thursday - turnout in 2004 was 38%.
Other smaller parties are also expected to benefit from voters’ anger with the main parties over expenses. The Greens and SNP currently have two MEPs and Plaid Cymru have one.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8080326.stm
310 You are right to an extent - but he answered the question very badly, because he left a hostage to fortne by saying that Ashcroft had confimed his status to him.
309. What would have been wrong with the response I suggested? It was blindingly obvious from Hague’s response that he hadn’t asked Ashcroft, so once he’d been caught out why not make a virtue of it and be honest?
My recollection of the Howard thing was that a couple of days later he was asked the same question by John Humphries and that time replied, ‘no, I did not threaten to overrule Derek Lewis’. Humphries said ‘why didn’t you tell Jeremy Paxman that?’. Howard - ‘because I wanted to check the record to make sure’. Humphries - ‘then why didn’t you just tell Jeremy Paxman you needed to check the record before you could say for sure?’.
Well, quite. Sometimes politicians have such a shifty approach to answering questions they make it look like they’ve got something to hide even when they haven’t. A touch of directness would have been in order for Hague tonight.
311. What on earth is Alan Cochrane playing at? He’s been hyping up the possibility of the SNP taking three seats for days now - even though the YouGov poll he’s quoting clearly suggests they’ll fall short! Is he trying to whip up expectations in the hope he can say “Alex Salmond suffered another devastating defeat last night in his doomed quest to break up the most successful political union the world…nay, the universe…has ever seen”?
Chris Christie is cruising to the GOP nomination for governor of New Jersey, to face off against incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine:
Christie, Chris GOP 10,927 59%
Lonegan, Steven GOP 7,195 39%
361 of 6302 Precincts Reporting - 6%
http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_state/NJ_Page_0602.html?SITE=NJNEWELN&SECTION=POLITICS
Corzine begins the race with terrible approval ratings and a re-elect number in the 30’s, at 7 points behind his still largely unknown opponent:
“The governor had a disapproval rating of 53 percent in a May 20 poll by Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Connecticut, just shy of a record 54 percent in April. Sixty percent of voters disapproved of the way he is handling the economy, and 54 percent said he shouldn’t be re-elected.
The poll of 2,532 New Jersey registered voters, which had an error margin of 2 percentage points, had Christie leading Corzine 45 percent to 38 percent.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aG.ezXzeJtHM&refer=home
305. I’m not sure I actually disagree with you. I have plumped for 13% to 14% for the LD Euro share just based on the fact that 15% was the 2004 Iraq score and we are polling (apart from ICM) down on the 2005 Iraq election. If you add in errosion to “others” that was seen in London 2008 and the polls this seems realistic. However most Euro polling disagrees with me and may well be right. I agree with you that the story will be else where.
I’m not pessamistic about the Counties vote share. We’ll benefit from them not being on a GE day, the lack of fringe candidates and overwhelming Tory incumbancy.
Its all glass half full/half empty territory. I think we’ll hold moist of our own while “others” gets the big boost. The question is wether that is good enough.
However you are right that while even if we aren’t rising in the polls the calamatous Labour decline offers a real prospect of compensatory gains against Labour as well as losses to the Tories. I think the spread markets are right to have been pushing up the LD tally.
Re 306. Christina. Sky were also reporting that Gibson’s constituency party are furious about it as well.
I also think that Dale is right there could be all sorts of consequences over this. I don’t think the Press are free and clear over this either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a number of MPs ‘considering their options’ if they should lose their seats (as well as those who already have). Not only might they have claims possibly against their Parties perhaps but also against the House Of Commons Authorities and the Telegraph and Wicks. I think this one might have a long way to go……
Brown’s Star Chamber is a ‘Kangaroo Court’:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/03/labour-ian-gibson-kangaroo-court
I believe the best odds of 3/1 against Johnson becoming the next Labour leader are far too short. Maybe this price would be about right were there to be a coronation, but after the Brown debacle, there’s absolutely no chance whatever of that. In fact, were Brown to go within the next week or so, I expect there to be 3 or 4 contestants and in such circumstances, I would be very surprised were Johnson to win. Much more likely, imho, is the prospect of him agreeing to become one of the other contender’s, eg HH’s, running mate.
I don’t know whether anyone else has mentioned this, but hasn’t Brown got himself into a terrible bind - how could he possibly announce a re-shuffle, reportedly on Monday next week, only to quit within a few days thereafter. Surely it would be preferable to stay with the existing team, excl La Jacqui, thereby enabling his successor to select his/her Cabinet?
315.”It was blindingly obvious from Hague’s response that he hadn’t asked Ashcroft, so once he’d been caught out why not make a virtue of it and be honest?”
Red Meteor, you must have watched a different interview from me. Hague was as categorical as he could be without taking it upon himself to ruin Ashcroft’s privacy. Sorry, but the earlier poster nailed it on that score. Who cares about Ashcroft right now, and why even bother to mention him unless you want to kick a Tory butt, and Hague is a big wheeze in my party, just like Harman is in Labour.
319.jsfl, as I said earlier, when has the hierarchy of the Labour party ever bothered with what a local association thought? They ride roughshod over them all the time. Its one of the big differences with our parties, no leader would pick that fight without a bloody good reason.
320.jsfl, thanks to JackW, its catching on, that is what I called it in my post@178.
321. “…thereby enabling his successor to select his/her Cabinet?”
Any successor would have an entirely free hand to select his/her own cabinet.
321. PfP.
Indeed, it could also be argued that until the expenses debacle is over (after the official version has been released) no one can be sure that there isn’t more embarrassment or worse to be passed around. What happens if one of those still in Cabinet (possibly promoted) is perceived to have attempted to cover through redaction some misdemeanours? What happens if the Telegraph has kept back some juicy details? What happens if another paper picks up on a thread that has been missed by the Telegraph?
It’s a highly risky strategy and I think it was devised pre-scandal and as ever Brown has not adapted it substantively when perhaps he would have been better to do so.
IMO he should try and hang out a reshuffle until the summer but it may be he has information we are not aware of (e.g. internal polling data) suggest he cannot and this really is his last throw of the dice.
PS If you hadn’t picked up on it rumours are afoot that Darling and Purnell might be resigning as well.
323 I do realise that Rob, but it would look ridiculous for two cabinets to be selected within days of one another, would it not? This may not be the case were Brown to continue in office until his successor is elected, but I very much doubt this will be the case - his departure will be dressed up as an ill health retirement issue, probably described as “stress” and as such he’ll go immediately.
In will pop HH and assume pole position.
324 jsfl - there are already certain cabinet ministers who, imho, should have already resigned or been sacked. It seems however that their particular cases are to be glossed over - disgraceful.
325. “but it would look ridiculous for two cabinets to be selected within days of one another, would it not?”
It would. And I’m sure Brown knows that. Which is why Brown is going to do the reshuffle on Monday!
Watching Hague’s interview seems a case study in evasion.
He spent the first half of it refusing to say what ‘would not let matters rest there’ would mean in reference to the Lisbon treaty.
326. PfP Indeed I agree in my view there are up to another half dozen as well as those already mentioned who fall into that category. The fact that Brown either can’t or won’t get rid is an outrage.
322. “Red Meteor, you must have watched a different interview from me.”
Or to put it another way, I wasn’t watching it as a Tory supporter and therefore saw it in a slightly different light! The only thing I’ll say in Hague’s favour is that at least he didn’t get irritable in the way Howard did twelve years ago - in fact he seemed to find the whole thing mildly amusing.
Talking of a Tory sympathiser seeing the world through a slightly different lens, how about this gem from the Alan Cochrane article Stuart linked to earlier -
“Overall, YouGov found that Scots are little different from their fellow Britons in terms of political reform, showing no great enthusiasm…[for] proportional representation.”
Now how many people would guess from that he was talking about a poll that showed 52% support across the UK for PR, and only 20% opposed? In Scotland, the figures were 54% in favour, 18% against. If they could come up with a good enough bribe, it would be well worth Labour employing Cochrane as a spin-doctor - with that kind of logic he could say, quite earnestly, “we’re delighted with the latest polls, they show no great enthusiasm for a change of government”.
FT calls for Darling to stay
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/512c7f72-4fa2-11de-a692-00144feabdc0.html
From FT article
“Mr Darling has been caught up in the MPs’ expenses fiasco. But his offences are trivial,”
Huh, 4 flips in 4 years, tax dodging advice on the tax payer, etc, etc, trivial? He is probably one of the worst offenders, excluding the ones who look like they have committed fraud, and definitely the worst offender still in the cabinet.
You have to ask serious questions on journos when they write c##p like this, and this was the FT, the world renown FT, editorial (rather than some Polly-esque columnist figure).
OMG, it get better,
“the Treasury has become a more honest institution than it was under his predecessor,”
What were all those growth figures from the budget? Lies, plain and simple, and will result in a budget black hole so large even the Arabs and the Chinese aren’t sure about funding it! Also, from the PBR, isn’t the economy suppose to be growing now?
Matt on the ball as always,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01415/0306-MATT-web_1415677a.gif
Brown and the Labour party have painted themselves into a corner in many, many ways. On policy / ideology, on debt / public finances, on morals / failures to resign, on their leadership selection system, on saying one thing and doing another, etc, etc. Huge and insurmountable dilemnas face Brown at every decision point.
Most crucially in the short term Brown is about to lose key players in his cabinet, must morally lose many more and has fully run out of credible or acceptable options for replacing them. Particularly painful will be choosing a Chancellor - and going for Balls would fire the first shot in a brutal civil war that will see Brown out quickly.
Nothing can now prevent a calamity for Labour. They have crossed the ‘event horizon’ and are going to get sucked into a thoroughly deserved political black hole. They have done what they have done to our country and to our economy and are going to be made to pay for it. Events (dear boy) and disasters will accelerate.
Dave will be PM in 2009 with a working majority. You can bet on it.
320 S&S - Looks like you’ve lucked out in New Jersey tonight.
NJ Republican Primary for Governor
89% of precincts reporting:
Chris Cristie 55%
Steve Lonnigan 42%
Rick Merkt 3%
In Democratic primary, incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine has 78% running against four minor challengers.
As S&S says, the general election matchup is very competetive, thanks to Corzine’s low poll numbers. But the national situtation may help give the Gov his 2nd wind between now and November.
Speaking of elections, looks like there’s going to be yet another one for US House in upstate New York this year.
Provided that the US Senate confirms President Obama’s nominee for Secretary of the Army, current US Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) a high ranking minority member on the House Armed Services Committee.
McHugh’s congressional district, the 23rd is similar geographically and politically to the 20th district, which was the site of the last upstate NY special election. But it’s farther north (all the way to the Canadian border) and has zero exurban commuters to New York City (a group that helped the Dems in the 20th).
A tougher nut to crack for Democrats, but not beyond the realm of possiblity.
The Retro TV channel I can now pluck from the ether - the sole benefit I’ve received (among all the demerits) from digital television, just tried to warp my cotton-pickin’ mind.
How?
By running an ’80s re-run of an episode of “The A Team” featuring guest star . . . wait for it . . . Boy George!