Is Labour heading for melt-down next Thursday?
May 29th, 2009
Populus reports a Euro vote slump to just 16%
A new Populus poll for the Times is out this evening and provides some comfort for the Tories but absolutely dreadful numbers for Labour in both Westminster and the Euro election voting intentions.
As has been suggested in recent posts on PB the big gainers for next Thursday EU election have been UKIP who look set to take second place. There are two sets of voting intention figures:
WESTMINSTER:
CON 41(+2) LAB 21(-6) LD 15 (-2)
EURO ELECTION:
CON 30 LAB 16 LD 12 UKIP 19 GRN 10 BNP 5
The Tories will take a lot of comfort from the Westminster 41% share and the fact that they are leading Labour by 20 points - almost double,
The Lib Dems will be a bit worred by the decline in both the Westminster and Euro numbers though a lot of that is probably down to the rise of the Greens.
But the real winners in this poll are UKIP. Their 19% EU election share is nothing short of sensational and could have a lasting effect on UK politics.
Whatever it’s going to be a long uncomfortable night at Number 10 a week on Sunday if the actual results are anything near these numbers. Could this be the trigger that ends Brown’s leadership? We shall see.
Betting. On William Hill political markets you can still get 11/8 on UKIP coming out with more European Parliament seats than Labour. Sounds good to me and I’ve put more on.
Mike Smithson
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Ahoy for first!
Brutal stuff for Labour - they need to brace for a rout now. The clamour for a GE is going to become irresistable.
2nd Class Post
Don;t forget,according to tim this is an EXCELLENT poll for Labour…Mike surely you are wrong?
4th? Equal to Labour’s position next Thursday.
4. Only if they get lucky
And now, the end is near and so I face, the final curtain….
‘Is Labour heading for melt-down next Thursday?’
Let’s hope so!
Mike - any idea when the breakdown of figures for the Others in the GE polling figures will be around? Would be interesting to see weather UKIP benefits as much as in the Euro figures.
depressed Labour turnout and the above Euro Poll being close to accurate = Labour fifth behind the Greens???
My take on the Euro numbers is that UKIP, Lab and LDem will be in much more of a three way fight for places 2-4. I think the Conservatives might tick up a little to maybe 31-32 as well.
4: Instead of Go 4th, labour can use ‘Go into 4th’ for this election.
What odds would I get on Labour finishing 5th?
Where’s that Shadsy?
Anybody?
By the way, I got my postal vote today and realised that I had misunderstood how the voting goes in this system.
I had thought it was a ranking type of vote but I see that it is only a single choice. Thankfully I read the destructions carefully before voting so didn’t screw up my paper.
To Labour MPs who are clean and who happen to be reading this:
If you value your seats in any way whatsoever you should start gunning for high-profile victims, in public, NOW.
When your local media asks, say: “What Hazel Blears, Geoff Hoon, James Purnell, Alistair Darling, … did was completely unacceptable. They should have gone immediately. That they did not was a failure on the part of Gordon Brown, who I am sadly now calling to resign. He lacks ideas and he lacks authority”.
6 GIN I’m a country fan and Alison Kruss supplies a good song for the occasion called It’s Over now… The chorus is as follows
It’s over, end of the line
It’s over and your doin’ fine
It’s over and over and over, I’m asking why
You’re leaving it’s over now
This is what the Tories do not want! if Labour gets hammered at the election then the Labour Party might just try and get rid of Brown. He will almost certianly get replaced by Alan Johnson who despite being Labour the public quite like, this would the be greatest danger for the Conservative Party.
I still think the core Labour vote will vote for them no matter what and they will poll in the low 20’s in the Euros. I think the UKIP figure is a bit optomistic. What goes up rather quickly can come down just as fast.
I’m speechless.
Blissfully speechless.
Bye bye Dirty Labour.
The Labourgraph putting David Cameron and the conservatives on the front pages, has backfired, dont they understand, we punters have a mind of our own,we can see a star in the making, even if they cant
The UKIP figures are remarkable - if they hold out. I wonder if we might see a real change now, in Britain’s relationship with Europe.
It still amazes me how putrid lefties like Toynbee can bang on about reform and transparency and political honesty and yet they ignore Labour’s most grotesque betrayal of democracy - the reneging on the EU referendum promise.
Well, that fine Bresse chicken is coming home to roost.
Cluck.
UKIP still aren’t making any impact in real national politics.
They are a safe protest vote for an election that really doesn’t matter.
Sorry for those who have faith in the European Parliament - but it hardly matters who we send. There is no real power there - the Commission is what counts.
The poll amazes me - I expected to see a hit on the Tory numbers because of the media focus - but clearly people have worked out their position and have moved on
“The Lib Dems will be a bit worred by the decline in both the Westminster and Euro numbers.”
With respect Mike, that’s putting it mildly - these are truly shocking figures for the LibDems, who until recently were in the low 20%s as regards GE polls.
If things had been relatively calm now, instead of the current frenzy, then Alan Johnson could have had a couple of months to bed in before calling an election. As it is, if Gordon went, the clamour for an election, right now, would be absolutely enormous. If Johnson (or whoever the caretaker is) didn’t respond, there would be hell to pay.
I blame all of this on that useless Gordon Brown. Who would have guessed that UKIP to reach 19% WHEN THE TORIES are on 30%?! I would have sworn that if Cameron managed to keep above 30%, UKIP could be kept to 10%ish. Now we all have to scuttle around covering out Labour> UKIP positions.
FPT.
581. Ken I agree the two jokers in the pack are Mandelson and Balls. Both have to be bought off. If Brown loses his Balls then he is impotent.
;o)
I agree with the list of those who are toast. I would also say Hutton (and his Batman Quentin Davies) and Woodward need further scrutiny too as both are pretty porky troughers if you ask me (in Labour’s top 100 - higher than BuffHoon) and as a gratuitous sacrificial lamb wee Dougie Alexander just for the hell of it.
As for the PLP I expect you are right. If the expenses scandal doesn’t get them, the recession will and if the recession doesn’t get them general antipathy towards Labour will. Life must be very bleak for Labour MPs. Their smart move is to head for the Lords as quick as possible not that any of them deserve it or will likely get it.
15 - I don’t think that having given a coronation they can rectify it with a regicide.
If Brown doesn’t go the week after the euro elections, he wont go at all…
15.
The ‘public will like Alan Johnson’ is the same assumption people made about Brown two years ago
@13: I think that’s a very accurate analysis of the implications of this poll.
An even more alarming feature of this poll for Labour should be that fully 49% of voters in the Euros are Tories and Tories-on-a-European-holiday.
******Betting post******Betting. On
William Hill political markets you can still get 11/8 on UKIP coming out with more European Parliament seats than Labour. Sounds good to me and I’ve put more on.
For me the dangerous figure is 19% for UKIP. There is a chance that a portion of that figure could be tempted by the BNP and are shy of indicating as much to pollsters. Allied to Labour’s collapsing figures these could be the most extraordinary results in British electoral history.
13. Wibbler. One quibble.
My message would be to ALL LABOUR MPs, whether clean or not. Follow Wibbler’s advice. Rescue my Labour>UKIP bet.
@27: And people were prepared to give Brown the benefit of the doubt. Even I hoped that things might change…I just didn’t expect it to be an even worse shower than it was before.
I think that time has passed.
What if Labour are third and the Lib Dems 5th? Could easily see Greens just pipping the LDs on these figures.
Liberal & Liberal Democrat leaders usually take some time to establish themselves but I haven’t been impressed by Clegg’s actions since the Gurkha victory. His reaction to first expenses stuff, probably because he had been claiming gardening, furniture, food etc, was just off what it should have been, his strident proclamations but (like Brown) absence of action, the culmination being his “Bar the doors” call for revolution, less a serious politician with leadership ability more a would be Daniel Cohn-Bendit.
This isn’t May 68 however much the Guardian wants it to be.
21: When oh when will the Lib Dems work out the only opportunity they have is a full out assult on Labour, rather than attack the Tories? Until they do that, they’ll get no where.
China Syndrome?
Ah well. If they shuffle Johnson to the top of the pack he may well turn a few aces
I talked this morning as did Stuart Dickson about Green momentum. Howeverfirst UKIP. If,if,if they get 19% get a seat in every region in england and pick up second seats in some of the longer lists. If,if,if farrage continues his stalinist purges and turns them into a proper political party. Well it could have a long term impact on the politics of the next Conservative government. If they have a semi credible force on their right as well as their left for the mid term blues? I bet we’d see a 100 UKIP councillors in 2013 shire elections and if perhaps the Tory MP for Barsetshire south keels over would it be UKIP who won the ensuing by election instead of a traditional Lib Dem triumph?
My feeling is the MSM is beinning to fuel the “Give the big three a bloody nose” narrative because it will be quite entertaining. If this starts to feed on its self and we get masses more UKIP/GReen air time over the the next 5 days then anything is possible.
14.
So much for the theory that the lack of coverage of “European” issues, due to the expenses scandal, would kill UKIP’s chances.
Esther Rantzen bombing badly on Any Questions !
And listening to Dominic Grieve and reading this post about Cammo..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/2009/05/cameron_tougher_on_lisbon.html
Well, I think Cameron is girding his loins to UKIPify the Conservatives…
Alan Johnson .. incredible. Hattie Harperson is the only credible candidate left. Straw is a straw man, unwilling to wield the knife. (What’s Brown got on him???). Trouble is Cameron would wipe the floor with Hattie.
For Labour its
Every which way but lose.
25: It would be a coronation, followed by regicide, followed by coronation. Its like the last days of the Roman empire
15. Not sure that I agree with your analysis. I suspect the last thing that the country needs at present (other than GB) is a former trade union leader as PM.
Assume that the vote is really this bad for labour next week,and the men in suits come to see Gordon to convey the news that it’s all over.
What if he, convinced as ever that he is The Man to see Britain through the crisis and to the sight of the green shoots of recovery, tells them in no uncertain terms to take a hike?
The nub of my question is how do they get him out if he doesn’t want to go?
My other question is twofold - would they dare have another coronation without an election (and presumably it would mean an instant GE if they did), and if Alan Johnson is the man to break ranks first in the race, what would be the chance of him not being the eventual winner?
It’s difficult from across the pond to judge the febrileness (febrility?) of the situation.
I shall now await namesake Tim telling me that I’m imagining all this and the fourth term is all but certain
More shameless UKIP ramping going on. I will win my money!
@34: They also, frankly, need a leader who is not prone to coming out and making massive, inexplicably self-harming pronouncements; some of which become PPBs.
39
Why are you surprised, populist vacuous celeb, as soon as they are under the microscope, its the star chamber for them.
Not a good poll for Labour.
19. SeanT, I pointed out in the last thread that Labour and the Lib-Dems bang on about PR because their combined vote at the general election will be more than the Tories vote, which they claim is unfair.
If this euro poll is anything to go by though, the combined Con/UKIP vote will be more than the combined Lab/Lib-Dem vote, which means, if the lefties are consistent they will immediately agree to give us our Lisbon referendum!
So, its over to them >
.
Conservatives + UKIP >50% at the Euros?
Euroscepticism rules ok!
According to Baxter, a Westminster poll of 41-21-15 would result in 420-163-31 seats. I know, I know, but it’s good to have a laugh.
47
understated as ever…
Hmmm, interesting from the UKIP_Graph as some people have been suggesting,
Why a vote for Ukip is a wasted vote
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5408641/Why-a-vote-for-Ukip-is-a-wasted-vote.html
I think that editorial has just sunk the conspiracy theory ship. And again they claim,
“We have called before, and will keep on calling, for a general election”
Is the Telegraph back on the ToryGraph bandwagon? Have even Pierce, Brogan, Prince et al seen the light and given up the ghost with their man Gordo or had the Barclays screaming at them?
How on earth can Labour win the next election from here?
Congrats to our host. Got this spot on this morning.
53. They can’t.
41 - I actually think it would be more like the Soviet Union with Blair as Brezhnev, Brown as Andropov, Johnson as Chernenko and whoever comes next as Gorbachev. The problem is that that little run led to the end of the USSR… oh well.
@39: What I find interesting about this is that they’ve found a way of squaring the European circle. They can make pretty strong statements that are designed to shore up the defences against UKIP, *and yet* keep people like me onside who don’t like knee-jerk Euroscepticism, but are strongly in favour of the (Tory flavour of the) devolution agenda.
53- It’s not about the Titanic surviving anymore; it’s already hit the iceberg. Now its about who will make it to the lifeboats.
14 O/T James, one of my all-time favourite live albums is Alison Krauss and Union Station. In the car right now…
50 That’s almost a mirror image of today. Tories on 420= just a bit less than current Labour plus Lib Dems, Labour plus Lib Dems on 194 = current Tories.
Can we now expect Pravda to back off from the “give the big three a bloody nose” narrative on the grounds that it is not working they way they would like it to?
47. Roger. The problem is that when you threw the towel in on Gordon, it was a sign that he’d really lost all credibility. And you were right about Cameron being slick at marketing.
So in your heart - do you want a coronation of the postie or an election - HH, Miliband Major, Balls, Johnson competing? Or do we struggle on with Gordo in the hope that something comes up.
I doubt Labour would do better under any leader as the contenders are all in the cabinet! Given the calls for a GE from many newspapers - realistically Labour are not going to improve who ever is the leader - if a new leader purged Cabinet minsers etc - what will they be left with?
Labour are screwed! NP a friend of PB and someone who is clean is out anyway! Even a new leader with a poll bounce bounce is going to be wiped out! I cannot see Labour getting more than say 26% who ever is leader. This is because every facate of Labour has failed. Even Johnson a former Union leader will do them no good. Would HH still be deputy - if so talk about tory toffs would be insane!
59 - Yeah I love that album. I love her work with Union Station.
49 - I think you’ll find both Greens and BNP are eurosceptics too. Euroscepticism always rules whenever anyone asks the question.
58 - Harman and David Milliband as it is women and children first.
48. I recommend reading the Mardell blog linked at 39.
It does sound like Cameron is edging towards a position where he will call a Lisbon Treaty Referendum WHATEVER the Irish vote, and whether or not the Treaty has been fully ratified.
That’s a bold step, and will cause a lot of grief in Brussels. But it is probably the only way to restore voter faith in Euro-politics, indeed all politics.
Mike, you’ve just made my weekend.
God bless you, and good night.
67. Yes, I think Cameron is moving towards having a retrospective referendum.
Would Labour really coalesce around Johnson?
David Miliband knows that if he doesn’t go for it now, he won’t ever. He has already ducked out of a challenge once. To do so twice would demonstrate Brownesque levels of courage.
And I can’t imagine Harman not throwing her hat into the ring.
Purnell is damaged goods. His career is over.
Ed Miliband hasn’t been tested in any major office. Same for Cruddas.
Who would become Chancellor? Balls or Cooper? Absolutely no chance.
Labour are DOOMED.
52
Wasn’t Rosa Prince “poached” from the mirror? The way she spouts her venom certainly suggests it.
45 mins after hearing about this poll, I’m still in shock.
Cameron’s tactics of outing the worst has worked [smug] but a 20% lead is WOW land.
Assuming 3% and 2% for SNP/PC my predictor gives
C 26 (-1)
Lab 13 (-6)
UKIP 13 (+1)
LD 8 (-4)
Green 4 (+2)
SNP 3 (+1)
PC 2 (+1)
La Tonybee is giving her orders again. Kinife Brown (the leader she was lauding up until a few montsh ago) and gerrymander the election by changing the voting system to keep her beloved left wing government in power.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/29/labour-gordon-brown-electoral-reform
I wonder is she’ll retire to self imposed exile at her Tuskan villa when the Tories win and her dreams of never ending liberal/left government comes to nothing?
Betting post
I know some aren’t too enamoured with Betfair, but I’ve just picked up Harriet Harman in the Next PM market at 13/1-ish, which seems very good odds (Johnson is way too short). Cameron is also a good deal too long there - I got evens on him there recently and he’s still in the 1.6-1.85 range, which is admittedly quite wide.
For those thinking Labour might finish fifth, I really can’t see how they end up behind the Lib Dems. I backed Labour a few days ago *at odds against* to get more seats than the Yellow Peril. The odds are still pretty decent IMO, though much depends on the very high Green share maintaining the course.
As for Lab/UKIP. This looks a bit of a banana-skin to me. I could see it going any one of the three ways. I have a small amount on UKIP, in part because I’d hate to miss the opportunity but I do think it will be tight.
A journalist friend of mine included this statement in an email to me tonight, and I just couldn’t imagine anyone putting it better so I am sure he won’t mind me posting it:
“In the 1992 election, as a reporter in the midlands, I saw the beginnings of the “New Labour” plan to outsmart journalists , create a presidential image of the leader and develop an entirely new political agenda with the infamous “grid” - a blizzard of policy announcements designed to tie the media in knots, thus giving Campbell the initiative and stifling critical debate. It was sinister then and even more sinister in hindsight.
This plan finally came to fruition in 1997 under Blair and, by God, it worked until the whole corrupt edifice collapsed two months ago.”
When people like him see things like this you just know the end is nigh.
69. He’s not gonna be popular in Paris or Berlin. But then, neither was Thatcher, and she was the greatest peacetime prime minister of the 20th century.
So f*ck it, quite frankly.
Down the pan:
Cameron wants an election now. If that happens then a referendum is a given. It kills two birds with one stone because not only does it harden up his own Eurosceptic vote but it also neuters UKIP because as recently as a week or so ago Nigel Farage said this.
“If David Cameron were to come out and say that he was fighting the next general election on the specific promise that within the first year of government the British people would be given a fair referendum on whether we stay in this political union or revert to a relationship based on trading links, I would have no hesitation at all in saying to Ukip that in that election we should not contest against his party.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/local-elections/5369813/Local-elections-2009-fact-and-fiction-on-planet-Ukip.html
Given that an early general election look increasingly plausible it is of little wonder that the Conservative Europe position seems to be firming up. If Brown hangs on until next May then it may be a different story but I suspect something else along the same lines will be offered instead.
The Westminister poll intentions give a total Conservative + Labour + LD share of 77%…of which the Conservatives have 41 percentage points. Under GE conditions, with the impact of the fringe parties likely to be lessened, the Conservatives would surely poll at least 45%.
71
Rosa Prince. just another reason why i don’t buy the Telegraph any more.
I can’t believe a mammoth Labour GE defeat is so tangible. It makes me almost giddy with glee.
I wish the Lib Dems would do a better job of kicking Labour when they’re down though. I want the Conservatives to have a decent party of opposition keeping them honest when they get in, rather than the morally and ideologically bankrupt Labour rump.
That Westminster poll is an utter disaster.
73. Interesting. My own calculator (working on smaller shares for SNP and PC, but still up on 2004), gives:
Con 28 (+1)
Lab 12 (-7)
LD 7 (-5)
UKIP 15 (+3)
Grn 4 (+2)
SNP 2 (nc)
PC 1 (nc)
Those polling figures adapted for regional differences would see the greens picking up a seat in the North West and South West … - Labour could go into meltdown in the South West, failing to pick up a single seat there.
I find this figure for Labour doubtful, but the base is clearly demotivated so UKIP to come out on top, something I doubted recently, is certainly viable.
Rosa Prince is poisonous (D> Mirror indeed)
re 75 check carefully whether your UKIP/Labour bets are on seats or votes. As I show above even with this vote share then they could come out equal,probably due to a poor UKIP showing in Wales and Scotland.
Crikey.
I thought Brown’s tactics in keeping his party’s head down over expenses would work. Obviously not.
I, like many, thought the BNP would draw off some UKIP support. In fact the effect seems to be like people who order the second cheapest wine - the more prominent the extreme far right, the more acceptable the merely hard right seem.
I was having a text conversation with a LibDem friend of mine earlier. Reposting a bit of it here as I think it’s appropriate:
He said he expected them to poll above 12% on Thursday; I said “I agree. Don’t think the Greens will poll so high - they’re the default protest party for the left as UKIP is for the right. I expect lots of those saying they’ll vote Other will end up voting LD or not voting at all. Could be a tight three-way race for second. But a week is a long time in politics…”
In other words, I agree with James Burdett @ 9.
70. Yes, that is my opinion!
I like NP and the many debates we have on here but i think there is no way back for Labour and have thought so for quite a while.
But the situation goes beyond NP’s predicament - what we look at now is not just the failure of the Labour party but the potential for it to be reduced to a rump!
Whilst i think Socialism may appeal to say 20-25% of the population, the fact is Labour post 1997 has failed to meet the expectations of the voters who wanted Labour. Added to that the meltdown in say traditional Labour seats and you are looking at a potential re-alignment with Labou & LD. Personally a re-alignment of Labour + LD would be welcome. It would moderate the alternative whilst giving the electorate a choice. I doubt it will happen as LD will want to replace Labour. It won’t happen though!!!
85 Yokel
You mean… that you are doubtful that 21% would actually vote Labour
73/83.
Guys, an appeal please. Can you please show seat changes excluding those that have been abolished? I can’t recall off the top of my head who has notionally lost seats…
re 83 David mine uses Baxter proportional swing. Does yours use UNS? There are some close run things: UKIP failing by 400 to deprive the LDs of the last NE seat, and the Greens failing by 500 to deprive Labour of the last Y&H seat, for example.
87. It’s seats. I agree that there are a lot of variables which is why I’ve been cautious in my betting (I’ve staked more on the Lab vs LD market).
Awful Lib Dem figures, admittedly from a polster that has tended to give them the weakest figures, but that would be a dreadful result, no doubt about it.
re 84 peter, yes. I’d predict for the SW
C 3
UKIP 2
LD 1
and if there were a 7th seat that would go to the Greens.
Why are the hacks here so surprised? Labour committed electoral hari-kari by sacking their best salesman ever two years ago (Nick Palmer soon to be ex-MP when you get your P45 from the electorate in a year then emotional and pyschological realism will follow on the Friday morning…) and replacing him with a f***wit. As they sow so shall the PLP reap. As to the Tories they are utterly hopeless:what do they stand for, they are a bunch of vague public school boy twitwits and the LibDems are led by a Westminster public schoolboy with the gravitas of an empty milk bottle. I decided to vote UKIP because its time to crucify these Westminster clowns but frankly the public would prefer a BNP/military solution the way things are going. Remember: Cameron is just another PR shill modelled on Tony Blair.
89. John. The problem with your thinking on this is that the BNP are not a far right party. They are a far left nationalist party. Thats why they are picking up working class Labour votes.
Reminder: Lumley is going to go on Jonathan Ross tonight (massive ratings from largely non-politically engaged audience). She will dish the dirt on Brown and may big up the Greens.
Her word may well carry a lot of weight with even the disillusioned core of Labour.
Labour coming fifth is a long shot but not beyond the realms of possibility.
24 JSFL
Has Quentin Davies got a safe Labour seat to go to? (whatever safe means nowadays).
I am really suprised by these figures. The Conservative Party has come across bloody awfully this past few weeks. All the worst sterotypes confirmed by greedy Tufton Buftons and yet still a lead like this?
The Tory party owes its life to David Cameron.
re 93 LS just for you (although you showed me no mercy in Diplomacy!)
Con 28 (+4)
Lab 12 (-6)
LD 7 (-3)
UKIP 15 (+3)
Grn 4 (+2)
SNP 2 (nc)
PC 1 (nc)
If Labour come 4th or 5th Brown will surely be pushed?
99. The left-right spectrum is a foolish one to use when analysing parties like BNP. They have the potential to pick up support from anyone with authoritarian leanings - left or right.
“Let’s go. We can’t. We’re waiting for Gordo”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6390670.ece
Why, oh why are things getting this juicy just as I am about to sit my finals?
test
@102: And because they probably *won’t* come 4th or 5th (I only said probably - and in part because the LDs are making such a dogs breakfast of it), Brown will almost certainly be safe, because he’s “beaten expectations”.
This is a cue for them to come 17th behind Christian Unity or whatever it is.
39/67 Down the Pan/SeanT - if that’s the case, I’m taking the credit!!
“I recognise that Europe is not an issue that any Tory leader would want to resurrect in a hurry, but still think Cameron should consider re-examining his stance. Compared to the last Conservative government under John Major, his party is far less divided (there are precious few Europhiles left beyond Ken Clarke) and the country seems more receptive to Euroscepticism than at any other time.
It might not take much - perhaps a guarantee of a referendum on Lisbon, whether or not it has been ratified - but I would posit that David Cameron has much to gain and little to lose by tapping into the public’s anger over expenses and their growing suspicion of the EU project. There are literally millions of UKIP voters who are opting out of his fold - being able to bring them back to the Conservative Party, even at the European elections, would be a powerful statement that there is little but time keeping him away from the keys to Number 10.”
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/05/23/should-cameron-embrace-better-off-out/ (Last Saturday)
98. I doubt NP would given the circumstances call fowl if the electorate call fowl of Labour. Given the circs he might not like the potential result but would live with it as the best way forward to ensure the UK or even England is a decent place to live. Labour have lost the plot!
94. Yes, it’s based mainly on UNS, with adjustments for Scotland and Wales. I’ve been meaning to build something a bit more sophisticated, incorporating an element of both proportional and uniform national swing. On these figures, UNS leaves Labour with NO seats in the South East (they’d drop to 7.2% there), which I do think is too low - though obviously, if they lost fewer votes there, they’d lose more somewhere else, possibly where a second seat might be at risk (London).
You’re right - whichever system you use, there’ll be some tight scrambles for the final places in some regions.
103. No it’s not because many of the traditional left right issues have now been nullified. What remains is the centralist / decentralist divide. Centralists live on the left mainly and decentralists live on the right. Authoritarianism is an extension of centralism and therefore it sits on the left.
31 - The Labour > UKIP was always a dim bet as Labour voters and activists are on strike, thats why I didn’t take it and concentrated on the Greens +24 Handicap.
You could still win but it is not worth the risk, and believe me I looked carefully at it.
The polls are excellent for the the Labour Party, and very bad for Gordon Brown.
Amidst all this the significant betting moves over the last few weeks have been on Hilary Benn for a major promotion.
He was 66/1 last month.
Now down to between 6 and 16/1
98. ‘the public would prefer a BNP/military solution the way things are going.’
The most ludicrous statement I’ve ever seen on here.
103- Which highlights another of Labour’s current problems. Given Labour’s general weakness combined with the veritable smorgasbord of parties that can appeal to different segments of the left-wing electorate, there is a significant danger that much of Labour’s vote could quickly bleed away if they are perceived by their supporters as a lost cause and incapable of serving as an effective bulwark against the Tories. A regular Labour voter could very well say ‘This time, I’m voting for the Lib Dems/BNP/Greens/SNP/PC/etc.’
101. Chris A.
Thanks. So that’s notional starting figures of C -3, LD -2, Lab -1 right?
101. Those are my figures you’ve quoted not yours - but thanks for saving me the trouble!
The Telegraph editorial:
Why a vote for Ukip is a wasted vote
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5408641/Why-a-vote-for-Ukip-is-a-wasted-vote.html
113. Wait til you meet Sean Fear.
61. Ken. I’m not going to vote this time because for the first time Labour and the libs are as unattractive as the Tories. I can’t see changing the leader making any difference. The problem is that a large part of the Cabinet are crooked.
100 “Labour coming fifth is a long shot but not beyond the realms of possibility.”
Outside London, Labour is going to get tiny votes in the southern half of England. London isn’t voting in the locals, so expect its vote there to be depressed too. The north of England heartlands aren’t going to be wonderful either, with LibDem and BNP competition coming at them from either side. Scotland looks to be more painful than they have ever known; and Wales could be seriously troubling.
Not such a long shot, perhaps.
99 - I know it’s fashionable nowadays to point out that the BNP are a ‘far left’ party, but I don’t wholly buy-in.
The far-right was borne of a hatred of Marxist Internationalism - xeonophobes and jingoists, who wanted closed borders and embraced the Romantic irrationalism of volk rather than the rationalist ‘we are citizens of the world’ inheritance of Lenin via Marx via Erasmus.
OK, they’ve swung so far towards closed borders that they now embrace protectionism, and they have capitalised on the abandonment of the working class (who are as comfortable being right wing as left wing when it speaks to their needs), but they aren’t a Left Wing party any more than they are a Right Wing party.
They are extremists - calling them far-left tells us little more about them than calling them far-right. Both terms are equally true/false and equally misleading.
re 110 I’d have for the SE with Labour on 9.7%
C 5
UKIP 2
LD 1 (6th seat)
Lab 1 (9th seat)
Green 1 (10th seat)
Need to imagine the word “Labour” being said in the Kinnock vs Militant voice.
“Labour MPs shouldn’t be looking up and around at how much more other people are being paid. Labour MPs should be looking back and down at how much more they’re getting than the people they’re supposed to represent.”
Of the well known ones only Field could say that without his nose shooting out and stabbing the cameraman in the eye.
nb. The truth underlying the statement above might be mostly b*ll*cks but a chunk of people believe in it very strongly and that chunk of people are the driving force behind getting the Labour vote out.
re 115 yes
56% want a change to PR…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6391226.ece
114. Not just that but a sleazy MP seeking re-election might suffer considerable vote transfer to the Socialist Labour party!
They may not win but some more left wing folk may protest againt Labour! One chap in the Socialist Labour party, an actor from a popular TV show - of he stood would have a good chance! He does the SLP broadcasts already!
Have people come across this for helping with D’Hondt calculations by region?
http://icon.cat/util/elections
Very useful.
@121: No, but it is symbolically important. I for one have had enough of people labelling all extremists as some sort of offshoot of the Tory Party. These vile people espouse a politics (such as it is) which is a macabre distortion of the Left rather than the Right.
Turnout updates - postal votes were checked by our agent today. 1650 were sent out, 450 were received back by todays check. Bearing in mind that postal voter turnout locally has been 55%-66% in the most recent elections (borough elections, not generals) I suspect turnout could be worse than expected and therefore the polls even more volatile.
121. Then I think we can beg to differ but having read the BNP policy manifesto on their web-site IMO they are a left wing party - economically and socially. The big difference between them and Labour is that they are a nationalist party with all that that entails and Labour is an internationalist party with all that that entails.
With all the focus here on the EP election, I thought it might be worthwhile running the Westminster poll through Wells and Baxter.
There’s a bit of disagreement between the two but taking an average, they give:
Con 415
Lab 170
LD 32
Con majority - about 180
Who would form Johnson’s “Cabinet” if Brown were to step down?
Harman and David Miliband would be awful as Chancellor. She might just about be OK as foreign secretary, but Miliband wouldn’t accept the demotion.
Home Sec is much easier. A minor minister like Ed Miliband could be promoted to Home Secretary. Denham had a lot of money going on him this morning, if I recall.
I can’t think of a single “obvious” Labour candidate for Chancellor. Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper have zero chance.
And they have massive gaps at ministerial level because so many of their ministers have evaded tax on accountancy advice.
We might be stuck with former ministers, a few Lords, and a few prominent Select Committee people.
Utterly untested, and without any sort of cohesive vision.
121. Did the far-right, in the sense of being a nationalist, authoritarian, militarist ideology, only come to exist after Marxism? It’s an interesting question, but I’d like to hear the arguments.
I feel please with this last night on here I predicted Con 41, Lab 23. Well done Cameron ! A one man army !
131 - I’ll offer you £1000 at evens that if the Tories win, their majority will be less than 179.
125. 56% of the population don’t understand what PR means.
Oh, and somewhat surprisingly, I’m a Greenish Tory but then that’s because whilst I am a Euro enthusiast it is not a pressing concern in the slightest
http://www.euprofiler.eu
132 Expect Charles Clarke and Alan Milburn to make a return. Possibly even Blunkett.
121. Morus - the BNP are far right in terms of immigration yet take in terms of economic policy a very left wing position. They are extrimist in any sense of the word in wanting immigrants out but policies in relation to economics that Tony Benn would balk at!
In terms of the Jury party they are aiming for between 5-10% of voters tunrned off by politcs and want a change!
136. oh yes they do and that’s what worries you.
I dont usualy semi-quote Michael Portillo(if ever), but 18 months or so ago he said on “This Week” that it was the weakest cabinet he had ever known or words to that effect.
He was not wrong, and that’s why its proving so difficult to shift loser Brown. There is nothing on the backbenches worthy of note either, hence Labour’s problem.
135. Only at evens? You really are showing the lack of confidence in Labour…
112.But what about Winterton, you were obsessed not long ago, no condemnation because this Winterton wears a red rosette?
I would agree though, great poll for Labour, Labour always are better in opposition.
47 - Finally, a (under)statement from Roger I can agree with
Does this mean what I think it means? That UKIP are polling 8 in the Westminster voting intentions?
And they seem to be gaining supporters from all over:
“Even in the main voting intentions poll, UKIP stands at 8 per cent. It looks on course for a good result next week. A third of its support came from people who voted Conservative at the last election, another chunk from people who said that they had not voted at all and a third equally from those who voted Labour or Liberal Democrat in 2005.”
140
How can you say that with any authority? I doubt whether Joe/Jane Public understands the full implications of PR, If you asked then what “PR” was, you would get a lot of blank faces,about 56% I reckon.
138 A surefire winner. More old deadbeats back in post. Clarke and Milburn were useless, and Blunkett’s another stranger to honesty.
There’s no point in shuffling the same old cards. Let’s just have a General Election.
139- Which is pretty close to an accurate description of the Nazi Party too; enough there for both the mainstream left as well as the mainstream right to hate. Has there ever been a credible study of where the BNP draws its votes from (i.e., who would BNP supporters be voting for if there were no BNP)?
Whilst this poll is absolutely fantastic news, a word of caution (thanks to Ken for first pointing this out).
This could easily be slightly distorted if Populus happened to oversample Scunthorpe or Luton or other scandal hit constituencies.
The very localized scandals may have very localized effects.
There is no ground whatsoever for complacency. The Conservatives and Lib Dems must attack Labour absolutely ruthlessly and without any quarter. Conservatives canvassers in particular should talk up the Greens as a protest vote when they encounter particularly anti-Tory voters.
138. Clarke and Milburn are fat porkers who are 41st and 69th on the Labour Top Of The Troughers chart having both claimed over £140k in ACA in the last 7 years.
Neither has yet been exposed to the Telegraph Treatment. As the numbers of those to be reviewed dwindle, I would be cautious about those remaining. There could well be some real nasties still to come out……
The only chance UKIP have to win any Seats in a GE is to do a deal with the Tories and that could only happen if it (improbably) looked close.
In the Euros,the TIE, UKIP v Labour is looking a lot better with UKIP ahead in the polls.
@145: And in a few months time, they won’t be; thus go the polls near the Euro elections.
I see Purnell is calling for state funding of political parties in The Guardian
Does that man not realise that the public are fed up with their money being given to politicians?
Whatever the merits of the case - now is not the time to be asking the public to give even more cash to the political elite
149
What are the odds on oversampling of Luton South or Scunthorpe?
141- Can there really be such a dropoff of talent on the Labour benches after Brown? I know it sounds like a good line, but it can’t be true. They have hundreds of MP’s with a decade or so of experience in national elective office from which to choose their next leader!
153 its because Labour are skint and havent the money to fight a GE campaign..pure and simple.
Lib Dems to come fifth, what are the odds?
141. Maggie Thatcher Fan
Portillo is an interesting person - I saw him speak just after Mandelson returned.
Portillo wants a return to politics, maybe it is possibly the situation in that Labour looked doomed! Personally i think he should have stayed an MP but he had negative headlines with regard to bonking some bird!
That said - Portillo has experience of cutting spending in bad economic times. He is a first class politician and i think in any future tory government he can not only look at doing the job of cutting public fiance but sell it effectively in the media!
I was a portillo fan in 2001 but unfortunetly the dickheads in the commons put Clarke against IDS! Whislt Clarke was many times better than IDS, if Portillo had won things maybe different!
Wonder what the local elections will produce?
These polls do not consider that.
Interesting poll - and until we see confirmation in others, like always, I’m treating it with a bit of caution.
It just feels a bit wrong - given the events of the last week. I’m wondering if there’s a degree of lag in this poll (it reads much more like the polls from 10 days ago) or that the dullness of the Euro campaign means that people are slightly disconnecting between the ongoing scandal at Westminster and their voting intention looking forward.
Dunno - but let’s wait and see what the others bring…
114. True. One aspect of that idea relates to the chunk of the Labour vote dependent on “community leaders”. A lot of them are primarily motivated by access to government funds so if they think Labour are doomed they’ll switch without any compunction.
Related but slightly separate to that is of the various chunks of ethnic vote I’d say only the three generation west indian vote has any specific loyalty to Labour. If ZNL get to the point where people think LDs are more likely to be the alternative to Labour then there could be big chunks of the Labour ethnic vote switching.
From the Times article:
The poll finds that 51 per cent expect an outright Conservative victory — 14 per cent think there will be a landslide and 37 per cent a victory short of a landslide. Five per cent say there will be a Labour landslide and 9 per cent a Labour victory short of a landslide.
Five per cent think there will be a Labour landslide. I take it that is the Alpha Centauri contingent. ROFLMAO
81 - I agree - look at where the last lack of an effective opposition got us.
Mind you I have already told the wife at the next election the next day is booked off from work and i’m getting hammered whilst I enjoy the destruction of this vile, vile “Government”
155 ‘Can there really be such a dropoff of talent on the Labour benches after Brown?’
Yes. The back benches are stuffed with cannon fodder, who simply shuffle in and vote as the whips tell them, and then shuffle off to fill out their expenses forms. The electorate have been right royally ripped off by this shower of incompetent swill munchers.
146. It’s common sense. The Uk electorate understands fairness and when you put to them the suggestion that if a party receives 20% of the vote it should receive 20% of the seats in parliament they’d say ‘ fair enough’. The implications - i.e. a balanced parliament - are a matter for politicians to sort out. They get paid enough to deal with expressed wishes of the electorate. In terms of what ‘authority’ that I may bring to support my view I can only cite being a Westminster candidate four times and a Euro candidate once and a council candidate more times than I care to recall.
153. Simon - Indeed it would seem insanity is breaking out in the Cabinet. Of course it could be PTSD?
162 - And 100% of JSFL thought that MacKay and Kirkbride were clean.
154 Maggie Thatcher Fan
I don’t know. But it could easily happen. Normally it’s not a factor.
Usually a white working class voter in one north-eastern constituency is more or less equivalent to a white working class voter in the neighbouring one. That is not necessarily true at the moment.
.
117 - what a strange editorial. Basically saying “vote Conservative” without actually putting the words into type.
137. I’m almost exactly on the Tories for six of the issues (nly I’m a fair bit greener). Hurrah!
Interesting poll? Not really, it has no relationship whatsoever to what I’m meeting on the doorstep!
Amused to read the Heffer piece linked earlier in light of this poll:
“I am puzzled that there should be a supposition among many people – not least Labour supporters who fear a general election – that the Tories have done well out of the expenses scandal. I am hard put to agree. None of the main parties comes out of this well, and the only ones that can make a pretence of doing so are the Lib Dems. They also, in the shape of Vince Cable, have one of the handful of people regarded as honest in the House of Commons: all of which, incidentally, might prove to have some bearing on the outcome of next week’s local and Euro elections.”
Poor Simon, his hopes yet again dashed.
He makes a big thing about standing against Hazelhurst, apparently neglecting to read the news feeds or any other news organ which would have told him Sir Alan had already met the conditions he proposed. Now his hopes that “Dave” would be damaged and have to return to Heffer’s preferred policies seem displaced.
re 171 What are you meeting on the doorstep?
Cameron won’t be smiling tomorrow…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/29/david-cameron-european-union-grandees
171: Well, go on then, tell us, what are you meeting on the doorsteps?
155. It would be a similar situation to thinking about how much talent exists in the House of Representatives in the US. Outside the cabinet, they’re mostly anonymous foot soldiers.
160. Dan I think it once again shows that the Conservatives have a solid 40% of the voters.
The thing is everytime there has been a scandal on the Conservative side within a few days Cameron has chopped them both before and during this scandal. So if you are a committed Conservative voter at the next GE (i.e. anti-Brown)what you see is - oh here comes another Conservative scandal, oh Camerons chopped them. Now what has Brown done about his scandalous MPs and Ministers - oh nothing as usual.
Cameron ups the ante
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5408929/MPs-expenses-Phantom-mortgage-MPs-must-face-fraud-charges-says-David-Cameron.html
162 - jsfl That will be the 5% who aren’t voting because their nurses won’t allow them to have anything as sharp as a pencil.
172. Ted - Cable asked if he could claim more expenses because he did not claim on another!
LD are as dodgy as any other party!
Plusa vote for change is wasted on LD as they support Labour!
Telegraph lead with three articles on DC that must be a record
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/5408015/David-Cameron-questions-and-answers-full-transcript.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5408929/MPs-expenses-Phantom-mortgage-MPs-must-face-fraud-charges-says-David-Cameron.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/5408871/MPs-expenses-David-Cameron-is-ashamed-by-whats-happened.html
Big Eric Pickles’ gone negative on the BNP and UKIP:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9Jyb32xA6I
Driving cabs, stroking dogs, Fred Perries… the Tories are scared of losing votes from the working-class Right.
174 - I think Cameron will be perfectly calm about that
165 “It’s common sense. The Uk electorate understands fairness and when you put to them the suggestion that if a party receives 20% of the vote it should receive 20% of the seats in parliament they’d say ‘ fair enough’.”
Well, I’ll leave side the 20% votes / 20% seats argument for another day but in recognising fairness, I suspect an electorate would recognise a government changing the system in the run up to an election in order to stave off defeat (a la Polly Toynbee) would equally recognise a fiddle for what it was. And punish that government just as much in a PR election as in a FPTP one.
174 Rod are you trying to outdo Tim and become the most ridiculous poster on here?
“MPs’ expenses: David Cameron is ‘ashamed by what’s happened’
David Cameron is dealing decisively with Conservative MPs embroiled in the scandal, but he tells Andrew Porter he is well aware voters want to ‘kick the major parties’.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/5408871/MPs-expenses-David-Cameron-is-ashamed-by-whats-happened.html
135. Polls give an indication of what the situation is now. They are not trying to predict what will happen when the election comes.
I tend to agree with you that the Conservatives won’t get a 179+ seat majority. There are some hard truths to be told to the electorate which the Conservatives will have to do and which Labour will dispute. That will knock some of the lead from the Tories.
179. Martin - Isn’t it way past your bed time?
174.Yet again, Rod shows he doesn’t understand the Conservative party, or why voters are increasingly turning to them…
174. RodCrosby. Cameron has been putting the Knights of the Shires - people with rock solid majorities and seniority to the sword. I dont think he’s going to care what a couple of Europhile ex-Ministers (former EU commissioners) and a bunch of the FCO’s finest think. The FCO bunch are mainly moronic idiots who undermine Britain. Picking fights with Tebbit or Britten dont do him any harm. If the FCO is against something, it’s usually a sensible decision.
177. That is exactly it! I may not like the fact that some t0sser has claimed for a duck pond but Labour have done nothing about dodgy MPs! Nick Clegg has done f*ck all! - Don Juan Mirrors included!
173. Hi, Mike, considerable anti-tory sentiment. And you know where I live and work and have my being, so that’s not too good for them.
Although I’ll never be able to prove it, I feel from what the punters are saying that they intend to ‘punish’ the Tories, by voting for them in one election, but against them in another. The Labour vote seems firm but too disillusioned to turnout - Labour would not meltdown if only they changed leader.
Certainly on my patch, I would expect all sorts of odds and sods to do well in the Euros but the LD’s to make some gains in the locals. Incidentally, the Cons don’t seem to be telephone canvassing (yet), but the English Democrats and the BNP are!
@174: Oh dear. I’m sure he will be just terrified.
174
Since when have the Foreign Office been a political force, or made any correct political judgements?
See Falklands, Iraq etc..
A Conservative MP who serves as a Crown Court judge has claimed £58,000 in taxpayer-funded expenses for a flat in which his children have stayed rent-free.
Humfrey Malins said that, when
Parliament was sitting, he spent two nights a week at the flat in Westminster that he designates as his second home, at an average cost to the taxpayer of £240 a day. His main home is in D0rking, just 45 minutes on the train from London Victoria or Waterloo – both close to Parliament.
Eleanor Laing, a shadow justice minister, has not paid £180,000 in capital gains tax after making a profit of £1 million on her taxpayer-funded property. She told the parliamentary authorities the flat was her “second home” but told the tax authorities it was her “principal residence”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5408929/MPs-expenses-Phantom-mortgage-MPs-must-face-fraud-charges-says-David-Cameron.html
174. Oh, yes he will. A bunch of euro-weenies whining about upsetting a non-existent consensus. They’re yesterday’s men with little or no influence and bear a measure of responsibility for getting us into the mess we’re in now.
Booting these bladders of wind around the pitch would draw rounds of applause from the terraces.
“I feel from what the punters are saying that they intend to ‘punish’ the Tories, by voting for them in one election, but against them in another.”
The spinners must be getting desperate!
186. frank
No i was up late last night but did not comment on here at 3AM!
Sensational numbers for the Tories, 41%, considering the pounding they have been getting in the Media.
177. Clegg must be wondering what he has to do get a decent poll on June 4th. Well there is always the guillotine.
185
David Herdson.
There is a lot of economic water to flow before a GE.
I can see Labour polling 15%.
Bill Cash should go! F*cking pathetic excuse!
174 Are Patten, Brittain, Tugendhat et al trying to help Cameron get some of that UKIP 19% back? With UK seemingly in a Eurosceptic mood it can only help.
Really poor timing if they actually want to achieve anything - Cameron & Davis both stood on basis of leaving EPP, Cameron delayed it to much noise about U turns so it is settled policy, any action needed to be a couple of years back. They may be grandees but grandees are not popular in the Conservative Party at the moment.
Now it seems the Telegraph is doing the hard sell of Cameron:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/5408015/David-Cameron-questions-and-answers-full-transcript.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5408929/MPs-expenses-Phantom-mortgage-MPs-must-face-fraud-charges-says-David-Cameron.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/5408871/MPs-expenses-David-Cameron-is-ashamed-by-whats-happened.html
133 - It is an interesting question. I suppose the default for most European societies’ established classes for centuries was to be nationalistic, militaristic, and authoritarian.
I was thinking more of the modern far-right - inspired by Romantic nationalism of the 19th century, and which took to opposing Marxism.
I’m going to look into this.
130 - I do take your point, honestly!
174. Voices of old men. They’re welcome to their view and perfectly entitled to put it forward but for better or worse, Cameron has massive backing for the leadership’s stance on the EU in both the Conservative Party at large and within the Commons. A few cabinet ministers from the 1980s doesn’t change that.
In any case, The Guardian’s wrong: Labour’s 1983 manifesto was more Eurosceptic, commiting the UK to withdrawal from the EEC (not that that was the reason for Labour’s defeat).
164/176- Okay, fair enough. But at least in the U.S. there are also senators and governors who can provide a pool of political talent at the top. In the UK, the Parliament is really all you’ve got! If there’s no talent there, then I guess there’s no talent in politics at all (except for a few rare standouts like Cameron or Salmond). That’s pretty scary.
Didn’t the last thread have something about a Telegraph-YouGov due out tonight?
From the Times article
“Labour has been heavily wounded by coverage of the expenses revelations. Asked which party had been worst affected, 35 per cent said Labour, seven per cent Conservative, and one per cent Liberal Democrat. “
And all week we’ve had RodCrosby excitedly linking to every article on Conservative sleeze (while totally ignoring all the Labour and LibDem ones) and doubtless he’s been moving his swingback theory over his electoral map.
Turned out to be as effective as the Steiner attack didn’t it
“Operation panic: Plot to ditch Brown for Alan Johnson…and a shotgun wedding with the LibDems”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1189617/PETER-OBORNE-Operation-panic-Plot-ditch-Brown-Alan-Johnson–shotgun-wedding-LibDems.html
208 - Morris Dancer, turned out to be a false alarm.
203 - False alarm apparently
You need to hurry with that trebuchet before these American children beat you to it.
http://www.richmondregister.com/religioneducation/local_story_141211525.html
206. MD. False alarm. No other poll.
Listened to Any Questions. Although I like Grieve I think he has a tendency to lack the common touch and make accurate but unpersuasive remarks. Have to say I thought he did very well. In fact, the panel generally was quite good.
Denham got a roasting over the Queen and the 65th anniversary. Most amused to hear a questioner suggest that perhaps we’d've been better off not going to France in 1944.
Edit: numbers changing a lot recently so I won’t reference them, but thanks to those who replied.
210 - Crikey, what must labour’s internal polling be telling them?
202. Thats the problem! They are tied to the HOC! What happens at a GE where power changes hands is the talent/ministers is taken from the commons! What a load of bullshit! Personally i would like a directly PM and he choses his ministers from the most talented - whether policians or not!
Toenails just mentioned the poll on News at 10
203.”Really poor timing if they actually want to achieve anything”
Ted, very poor timing indeed…Hmmm, its almost as helpful as Tebbit’s regular interventions have been in recent years. It does tend to cement Cameron’s position, and the message he is sending.
Cynical, moi?
174. The eurobleating of Patten and Britten is uncannily reminiscent of the whingeing of the Tory “wets” - who got all het up about Mrs Thatcher’s radical and “disastrous” economic policy in about 1981
Men like Francis Pym, Ian Ogilvy, and James Prior. The Tory party has always specialised in forgettable old farts who know nothing and have even fewer balls.
Anyone who thinks that the UKIP are “hard right” but the BNP are “extreme right” needs to do their homework! The BNP is an extreme left/racist party, wereas the UKIP is libertarian/conservative.
How can the the BNP be right wing when they promise wide nationalisations and say thinks like “all owners should work and all workers should own”? Apart from the racist ideas, the BNP has a long list of hard left policies. All of these policies are totally against anything that the UKIP stand for.
Both the European and Westminster sets of figures look bad for the Lib Dems how bad would they need to get before they are looking for a new leader?
202. I think this time in history has combined the usual distaste for politicians (stronger in this country than the US because of British cynicism) with a lack among the bulk of population for a real desire for a different political ideology. Back in the 1980s people were extremely animated to get this country back on track after socialism, and in the 1990s people wanted to fight the lack of compassion and tired government of the ever-present Conservatives. This led to many more talented folks in the Thatcher and early Blair governments, regardless of whether you liked their politics.
You have a couple of issues still left (Europe, immigration) but they don’t motivate as many people as other issues did before - so for most talented people, why go into public office and face lower salaries and public contempt when you don’t see that much to fight for?
But yeah, you’re right. It is scary.
219. I thougt that Clegg was a bag carrier of Leon Brittan! By that and the fact he became a euro MEP shows he is a EU placeman!!!
217
Toenails is back..???? he was on holiday.. does he sense a crisis….
210. Peter Oborne - Daily Mail ***”Another example of the breakdown in good government is the failure to invite the Queen to attend next week’s D-Day anniversary celebrations.
It is inexplicable that the British head of state will not be with the U.S. and French heads of state at a ceremony to mark such an important moment in our national history.
Downing Street was responsible for the arrangements and her omission is squarely the fault of Gordon Brown.”***
210. FFS Oborne recommends Libertas (pan European party and therefore poison to any serious Eurosceptic)and the Judge and Jury Team who eventhough it is not a real party but an umbrella for independents had to have a Leader who was decided by Judge if I recall. Furthermore, they have the likes of Bell and Rantszen in their ranks.
Hmmm PPS (Potty Politics syndrome) seems to be breaking out all over.
220- Maybe one potential solution (a bit counterintuitive in some ways, I admit), would be to drastically reduce the size of Parliament while also raising the salaries of the elected officials. It might make the position more professional, more prestigious, and more interesting to talented and ambitious folks. Even if that’s not the solution, there should be some way to entice a more capable pool of talent.
I spent much of yesterday talking to dozens of voters in Staffordshire, one of the county councils set to be lost by Labour next week. The Tories seem to be riding out the scandal. Ukip are benefiting. Labour, perhaps unfairly, are getting it in the neck.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2009/05/ukip-edges-ahead-of-labour-in-opinion-poll/
Just posted this on the blog of ‘Citizen Andreas’, a well-known supporter of ID cards:
1) Take a credit card.
2) Place credit card on blank piece of paper, trace around card and cut out the outline.
3) Stick passport photo of yourself on this credit card-shaped bit of plain paper.
4) Write ‘Eye-D Kaard’ and ‘Certified by JacquiBootsButtPlug Smith’ on paper next to passport.
THIS IS THE CLOSEST LABOUR — 20 POINTS BEHIND IN THE POLLS, ANDREAS! TWENTY! POINTS! BEHIND! — IS GOING TO GET TO FORCING US ALL TO HAVE ID CARDS!!!
Labour = ID cards = DOOMED!
DOOOMMED!!!
225. The problem is not attracting talent, it is weeding out the numpties while allowing the talented through the party machine. Open primaries might help
223 - Perhaps the Queen had a quiet word and said she’d rather go to Epsom on Saturday
.
219. Absolutely spot on SeanT. The Tories now have a once in a generation chance of getting rid of all those dead beats of the squirearchy and others that are just no damn good.
175.
Lol!
Patten and Brittain attack Cameron’s stance on Europe.
I’m sure Cammo is quaking in his boots
Hilariously poor for Labour, and deservedly so.
Still quite tempted to vote Labour though, to try and keep Brown going until they are in single digits
231 Perhaps Cameron asked them to….
@232: Nope - stick it to him. It’ll just make him angry, which is always fun.
Labour! Labour! Labour!
Twenty! Points! Behind!
ID cards! ID cards! ID cards!
Out! Out! Out!
“Patten and Brittain attack Cameron’s stance on Europe.
I’m sure Cammo is quaking in his boots”
The worst thing they could do to Cameron would be to praise his European strategy.
223. ChristinaD. Isnt the root cause of this MoD indifference?
So back in March:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/5016283/D-Day-veterans-will-receive-65th-commemoration-support-says-MoD.html
But by the time the idiots in the MoD had said they would provide money (from the lottery) - the Veterans said they had the money together and they didnt want some vague promise which would allow the government to pretend they’d paid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7956397.stm
In February the official MoD line had been:
‘A spokesman for the MoD said: “The MoD provides funding for the official commemoration of the 25th, 50th, 60th and 100th anniversaries of events of national importance. Funding was provided to the Normandy Veterans Association to mark the 60th anniversary of the D-Day landings when it was acknowledged that this would be the last commemoration using public money.”‘
237 MOD
Ministry of Disarray. Funding should be provided indefintely. The cost is peanuts.
FINALLY
Newsnight goes after the real scoundrels; the criminals.
223 Christina - I am truly angrier with the British Government over that than over the greed and avarice of its members. I’m going to sound like an old fogey (and its 6 weeks before I join the 55+)
I have a first cousin buried in a southern French churchyard, shot down over France, and an uncle buried in the north killed after D Day. My Dad in his first job as a telegraph operator at age 17 actually typed out the telegram to his father, already mourning the loss of his grandson, telling him that his eldest son had been killed, knowing that it would arrive before he could get home. They were South Africans fighting for the King-Emperor and bound like so many across the Empire by loyalty to the Crown. Those people, that generation of Britons and the Empire deserve more than a ******** self centred b******d, keener on standing next to Barack Obama than in remembering the dead. It was the Empire, now the Commonwealth, its the Queen who should be there as Head of State of more than just the UK, as the non political figurehead.
Sarkozy is worse, but that doesn’t excuse the man hiding in No 10.
One question has occurred to me, given these national polls, is why Broxtowe remains a small oasis of solid Labour support.
225. I would support both those things. Also, I think bringing in primaries would open up politics from having boring old ideologues chosen by boring old association members.
What really has to happen to remake our politics is
1. The old Palace of Westminster including the Commons and the Lords needs to be pulled down and a modern edifice raised up in it’s place that is fit for purpose. (If the building can’t be pulled down because of Heritage, then a new building should be raised in a different place, but close to the centre of London).
2. There should be a fixed Parliament starting on the second Thursday in May every 4 years.
3. There should be a maximum of 400 MP’s in the Commons and 120 members of a higher House - like a Senate perhaps.
Is Polly in her Tuscan villa>??
243. What’s wrong with the Palace of Westminster? It knocks the spots off the other horrible, soulless, antiseptic parliament buildings around Europe.
241 - Because NP is an outstanding MP! The electorate of Broxtowe realise how lucky they are to have him as their MP
243 - Why stop there? Why not get rid of all the traditional remnants of our ancient country and start afresh? After all that is the New Labour Way, isn’t it?
Bully Bulimic has said for months go “forth”. Looks like they may well do so!
125 - there is something quite sad to watch a man who just wants to keep the Tories out come what may scrabble around like this.
Then I remind myself it is Rod and just enjoy the show
148. In solid Labour areas I’d say BNP voters are sort of in-between. They’re not so much either ex hardcore Labour or ex hardcore working class Tories, they’re the ones in the middle who thought Labour weren’t quite patriotic enough but at the same time thought the Tories were too attached to big business - they’d mostly vote Labour but occasionally Tory or not at all.
I’d say that’s why the BNP seems to have a plateau in solid Labour areas that mostly hovers around 20%-25%. Above that level means they’ve started to eat into someone’s core.
This is partly why I’m not expecting any dramatic BNP surge. What they should be aiming for is to soak up all that 20-25% of in betweeners all over the country plus the more Tory types who are sick of PC and the EU etc. Once that’s solid they can think about trying to burrow into either the Labour or working class Tory core.
Cameron, who will appear alongside highly conservative EU allies in Warsaw tomorrow
Lets hope the MPs who think Obama marks the end of white civilisation aren’t in the photo shoot.
251. Would you recognise them if they were, tim? They probably don’t have swastikas tattoed on their foreheads.
An intriguing post on Pollyanna’s latest epistle.
Given that everything this government touches turns to
shitdust, does their damascene conversion to PR mean that it is doomed as a concept for the next 20 years?There is a kind of logic here - Labour has distorted and betrayed every well-meaning but naive cause in British politics - from ‘ whiter than white’ to ‘education, education, education’; from ‘no more boom and bust’ to their ‘ethical foreign policy’ (Kissinger would be proud of that one), they have devoted their careers to proving Thatcher right in almost every respect.
The only obstacle to 20 years of Tory rule is a change in the electoral system, but I’m reasonably confident they will have discredited that idea within weeks.
Yex, that poll is, um, a bit suboptimal for Labour. It doesn’t correspond at all to my direct experience (which is not great but much less dramatic - at least for the local elections), but I do believe polls more than I believe canvass returns. We’ll soon know for sure, but it will be very interesting to see how for certainty to vote is influencing the headline figures.
I do notice a tendency among supporters of all the main parties, even quite committed ones, to see the Euros as a chance to express a casual protest vote. There was something similar in Denmark some years ago, when anti-EU minor parties gained huge successes, even though anti-EU feelnig wasn’t especially strong at the time - the transference was vaguely “It’s a European election, I want to protest about all kinds of stuff, so I’ll vote for people who are against it”.
251 Hey Tim, shouldnt you be worrying about those nasty artisan Labour voters defecting to the BNP, Surely thats a huge issue for Labour and very worrying for the Labour Party.
Smearing here is a lost cause..
245. It is not a fit place for a Modern Parliament. If you want to remain in the 19th century by all means keep it.
Well the Beeboids have done their bit tonight. Any Questions was partly a PPB for the absurd Esther Rantzen, and then an ongoing promotion of. Then we get Newsnight and who is beamed into unsuspecting living rooms, but Mary Louise Toynbee and lo and behold PR is the answer.
One only has to listen to Mad Polly to know that one thing she has never ever done is speak to anyone outside of her charmed circle. Perhaps if she actually spoke to the non Guradian majoirty she might discover that changing the voting system is not the number one issue on everyones mind. For those of us who do not have a Guardian salary, Guardian pension programme and a home in Tuscany her beloved government is not the best in her ever longer lifetime.
257. Also in response to Polly’s article
Your suggestion that Brown should be ousted and another Labour leader with no mandate be foisted on the country is bad enough. To then suggest that this individual should proceed to completely change our Constitution and electoral system is an utter disgrace.
This country is supposed to be a Democracy. What you are suggesting is a Coup, followed by a Dictatorship. And all to save a Party which you yourself has said deserves to die.
I have no problem with changing our Constitution. It needs changing. I am not convinced that our electoral system should change. But whatever, this should only happen after a long and careful examination of all the options - taking in all Parties; the devolved Parliaments the people and our Head of State, the Queen.
It should not be even contemplated by a desperate and deeply unpopular Party which has foisted two unelected Prime Ministers on the country.
Front pages
255. People are still wary of confessing to pollsters that they are going to vote for the BNP.
That 5% they score tonight is very significant, I expect them to do much better than that in actuallity. 9% perhaps overall with getting around 11% up north.
254 so what’s the plan?
Does anyone know when was the last time Labour failed to poll in the top two in a UK wide election, GE or Euro’s, surely it must have been back in the 1920’s?
Regarding the Lib Dems poor poll ratings, although personally I think they will get upwards of 18% in a GE, could it be their Euro-enthusiasm that is holding them back? All the evidence is that Britain is a profoundly Euro-skeptic nation and being in favour of closer integration appears to be electoral poison?
NP @ 254. And yes, Newcastle United’s performance in the Premier League this year was also ’suboptimal’.
256. Gladly. I’d take Disraeli and Gladstone over Cameron and Clegg, any day of the week.
Seriously though, every time I hear the word “modernisation” a chill runs down my spine. I don’t understand how some shiny new PFI edifice, in a nice non-confrontational crescent shape is in any way preferable to a building that is as much a part of the fabric of our democracy as anything.
LOL! Camerons been attacked by legitimate wind-bags Patten and Britton - Two has-beens who never really were - For his clearly wildly popular euroscepticism! This will give him the perfect opportunity to slap them down and make himself look even more in control of his party:
David Cameron the man who takes on the moat owning, right wing nutters and the ancient, washed-up euro loving has-beens from the wet left! I bet he can’t believe his luck!
265. Its as if he is choreographing the whole thing. Cameron moves the conservatives into the solid middle ground, and yet the wets still whinge because he doesnt do everything they want.
264. I’ll take Disraeli, you can keep Clegg.
Many of those saying UKIP in the polls will vote BNP.
Meanwhile the Telegraph saying they are a ‘wasted vote’ and their troughing MEP’s about to be exposed they will not beat Labour in the Euro’s.
256 - A similar analogy could be said for all those shiny new school buildings which somehow imbue intelligence.
258. I don’t know why it surprises people that many on the left are anti-democratic. That said you’d think they would have learnt to hide it, but when they get in a panic they just can’t help but show their true face. What scum they are.
264. I shudder at the word also, its one of those words that forces you to agree with it. Who is against ‘modernisation’? Its like the word ‘environmentalist’ or the term ‘anti nazi’.
229. A pretty crass and insulting thing to suggest - even if meant in ‘humour’.
I spend a lot of time in Normandy and the fields of white crosses and war memorials that are respectfully maintained by the French for the dead of all the nations always give me pause to reflect.
Whatever the reason, it is surely not because HRH can’t be arsed.
262
One more heave from the Greens will see the Lib Dems relegated to 5th place next Thursday,looks like it’s payback time for their broken referendum promise.
271. Progressive. The word that the left use in place of a valid argument.
262. Either 1918 or December 1910, depending on definitions.
In 1918, the Liberals were split into Coalition Liberals (Lloyd-George) and Asquithite Liberals (sort-of official, in that Asquith was still leader of the party). Taken together, they won more votes than Labour; taken separately, neither did. The Conservatives were also split but not nearly so much down the middle and the Coalition Conservatives finished top even without their non-Coalition counterparts.
In Dec 1910, the Liberals polled a long, long way clear of Labour (who were still in single-figures, percentage-wise).
256
I disagree. Our Parliament should be confrontational and should also surround its current incumbents with reminders of what they are supposed to be there for. As such the current building is perfect. Those Parliaments ‘in the round’ only serve to promote the idea of coialition which is the enemy of democracy.
I hope one of the news papers take up the story on Nick CLEGG and his MEP expenses,I smell a scandal.
Frank Bruno’s performance against Mike Tyson was suboptimal.
Battlefield Earth, Catwoman and Norbit were suboptimal movies.
The brains of Presidents Lincoln and Kennedy interacted with small metal projectiles in a suboptimal manner.
Emperor Hirohito, August 15th 1945: “Subjects, the war has not necessarily developed in a way that is anything other than suboptimal.”
Nick Palmer MP (maj: suboptimal)
272. Indeed. HM and the Duke are quite possibly the only two WWII veterans (nominal in her case, very real in his) who still hold high office anywhere in the world. They have an understanding of the events then that few politicians today can do.
274 -
Have there been any expenses stories tonight?
Poor old Tim.
Spent ages on here, smearing, sneering and generally spreading manure around and whats the result?
He is ignored, treated with the contempt he deserves …. and the icing on the cake…… its all been for nothing, no one is listening. people have made their minds up and Labour are going to get bent over and done with no lube.
Life is sweet sometimes
282 - You owe me a new keyboard!!
283 - yeah, but it was worth it
The BBC have less spine than Labour. And that takes some doing.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189638/BBC-offers-30-000-apology-Question-Time-slur-Islamic-leaders-anti-war-protest.html
Have people here heard of ’screamer prank’ videos?
I want to commission one like that recent, deeply creepy commercial for the science-fiction season on the radio — only instead of the old guy suddenly turning into an alien at the end, it’ll be David Cameron turning into Adolf Hitler in a Maggie Thatcher wig, with a rolled-up £50 note for his moustache.
And then I want to send it to tim.
286. Surely tim already has that video as his screensaver?
BTW, Labour MP and blogger Tom Harris reported the poll on his blog tonight simply by linking to PB.com. Kudos!
From The Guardian article about the wet wind bags have a go at Cam;
“Cameron, who will appear alongside highly conservative EU allies in Warsaw tomorrow, goes into the European elections next Thursday on the most hardline Eurosceptic ticket of any mainstream political leader since Britain entered the EEC in 1973.
Cameron also says that a future Conservative government would be prepared to break with convention by reopening the Lisbon treaty, which is designed to streamline the working of the EU after its recent expansion.”
A couple of quite interesting points;
1. Confirms what some of us on here have been saying about Cameron, that he will be the most eurosceptic PM in our history (since the joining the EU anyway) This doesn’t come as a surprise to me, as I’ve always suspected he would be. I know some on here, NickP for one, thought his euroscepticism was somehow an act designed to fall the Tory faithful and that actually he would carry on holding the line of slowly giving away more and more power once he gets into office. Others deluded themselves that just because he doesn’t bang on about Europe all the time and isn’t obsessed about it, that somehow would mean he wouldn’t govern as a eurosceptic. Well, it seems both ideas were wrong and Cameron is indeed going to stay true to his convictions that the EU has too much power and that its time from a radical realignment of our relationship with this undemorcratic monalith.
2. The other interesting point is that it seems to confirm Cameron is indeed offering, or is going to offer, a retrospective referendum on Lisbon. A very significant development and one which could earn the Conservaties a lot of the support they lost to UKIP.
279 - Just so. I’m not a diehard royalist, but to exclude the Queen and Prince Philip from the forthcoming events is just outrageous. It casts Nicolas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown in a very poor light; it does not of course demean the Queen or Prince Philip, but it lets the rest of us down.
288. He seems a decent sort of chap, and he actually gets the internet, unlike Draper and co. There are some good Labour MPs.
Gordon has been writing letters in his absence from the scene. “Its those sleazy Tories, I tried to clean it up, vote for me”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189615/Im-sorry–vote-says-Brown-letter-blaming-Tories-expenses-scandal.html
287. I imagine it’s more likely that he has it printed out and kept in his sock drawer. Suspiciously close to a half empty box of tissues..
Some people think Cormac McCarthy’s ‘The Road’ is a terrifying odyssey of survival through a world in which civilisation has collapsed and returned to unspeakable barbarism.
In tim’s copy, ‘The Road’ has been crossed out with black crayola and ‘Cameron’s Britain 2011′ scrawled beneath it.
292. He never changes does he?
289 - The people Cameron will be alongside.
The leadership is now confident that it can form a group with Eurosceptic, but credible, parties that will be elected, principally in eastern Europe. Cameron will underline this point today by appearing in Warsaw alongside leaders of Poland’s Law and Justice party. He met leaders of the ODS party in the Czech Republic last night. The Law and Justice party is led by the Kaczynski twins who have banned gay rights marches and who appear regularly on the Catholic Radio Maryja radio station which allows antisemitic broadcasts.
And one of the MPs who Dave may like to avoid being photographed alongside -
In late 2006, he spearheaded an initiative - along with other members of LPR, PSL and his own party - to declare Jesus Christ the honorary King of Poland.
On November 5, 2008, a day after Barack Obama’s victory in the presidential election, he called Obama the “black messiah of the new left” and said his victory marks the “end of the civilization of the white man”
Although I suppose when your Party is more uncomfoertable with Chris Pattens views on Europe than the Latvian SS’ then none of it really matters.
290. Her Majesty will soon have a much more friendly government to support and stick up for her. Once these anti monarchist lefties are thrown on the scrap heap, The Queen will be able to see out her days under a government that actually respects and supports her. I bet she’ll be relieved.
292 Ted
As is so often the case with the Daily Mail, the most interesting bit of the article is at the end:
295 - Nope not one jot or tittle.
254. In particular, Nick, they want to protest against your government which, under Browns watch, has done its utmost to avoid a vote on anything; no referendum, no general election, delayed byelections and no leadership election.
There is nothing ‘casual’ about it. It is the first chance the uk wide electorate has had to pass judgement on Brown since he became Prime Minister.
Prepare for a ’sub-optimal’ verdict.
Somebody with access to data or a longer memory than me - is 16% the lowest figure ever by a long way for one of the two main parties in a national opinion poll in the history of British opinion polling? I recall the Tories were down at 19% in 1995 in one poll (yes I know different methodology was used then).
Either way, shares in Nokia look a good bet right now!
292 - I swear that man is actually becoming a parody of himself. If I wanted to think of a way to exaggerate what Brown would do with this crisis, I’d have him writing a letter to voters saying the Tories were to blame and how he is ‘getting on with the job’ etc. The fact that he has actually done that is both tragic and disturbing.
289.
chuckle… ’streamline’, i am surprised they didnt just copy and paste the government line of ‘ a tidying up exercise’. 231 pages of text, jsut to streamline…
I have a feeling we are not being told the real truth about Mr Brown, somedays he looks positively like death. I suspect that his health may become a real issue in the coming days…..I don’t have any inside knowledge and I know it’s his style to go missing when difficulties arise but….there’s something not quite right.
301 - I would imagine it is, wasn’t the 22% they got last Euro’s the lowest score for a governing party in a national election since Noah emerged fromm the Ark?
298 - which won’t happen. I’m pretty sure the Labour plan is for those Tories who are leaving to make a fuss, but what Harman hasn’t considered is all the Labour piss that’s going to have to leave when the media actually bothers to focus on them, and she’ll also have to contend with 100 of her MPs in marginals begging her to keep it.
@305: And they thought he was polling pretty badly at the time; of course, the dove showing up was his Falklands Moment.
304. I don’t know. I think he’s just in the bunker, getting on with the job.
He’s as mad as a box of frogs of course, but whether theres anything actually physically wrong, other than self inflicted insomnia and exhustion, I doubt.
254 Elections for European Parliament as well as local elections have always been protest vehicles. This includes purposeful absentionism as well as defections.
Real question for June 2009 may be the level of both. My guess is the answer is: VERY high.
Heres a goodnight message for the herd boys.
Conservative leader William Hague has hailed his party’s dramatic European election victory as vindication of his opposition to the single currency.
Labour suffered a disastrous setback in what was the first nationwide electoral test of its popularity since winning the 1997 general election.
Mr Hague said the result - which mirrored a shift to the centre-right across much of the European Union - was a “a major breakthough” for his party.
304 chris_g00 perhaps Mandelson’s list was missing a name all along … One of Peter Mandelson’s first acts in the new Labour Government on May 2, 1997, was to order a trawl of the unknowns swept into Parliament in the previous day’s landslide. Within days a list of 40 potential off-message deviants had been drawn up, including some labelled “mentally unstable”.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6195107.ece
289 Guardian, as usual, neglects history. Which Party and when said in its manifesto “We will also open immediate negotiations with our EEC partners, and introduce the necessary legislation, to prepare for Britain’s withdrawal from the EEC, to be completed well within the lifetime of the Labour government.”
It was of course 1983 and the Labour Party. Better Off Out said Labour, think that might be just a little more “hardline Eurosceptic” than anything Cameron has said.
Less Better Off Out by 1987 “we will stand up for British interests within the European Community and will seek to put an end to the abuses and scandals of the Common Agricultural Policy. We shall, like other member countries, reject EEC interference with our policy for national recovery and renewal.” Still very Eurosceptic though - little about European fraternity.
“Prepare for a ’sub-optimal’ verdict.”
Labour’s performance in the general election is going to make ’sub-optimal’ look, well, optimal.
310.Tell us about Rosie Winterton, Mr expert on the Wintertons.
evening all and a simple way of summarising this evening’s news is:
General Election night around 23.00. Ladies and Gentlemen first declaration imminent.
Sunderland Central: Conservative Gain, majority 2500. Everyone can go home and last out switch off the lights!
Even Pravda woman mentioned the poll on the paper review at 23.25 this evening.
Good night all.
310 and it stopped Tony Blair signing up for the Euro didn’t it? May not have helped Hague but certainly achieved the objective.
312 - Yes but the Guardian are techniclly correct about European elections.
Don’t have nightmares, timmyboy. Wait until 11 months’ time.
237.Ken, the MOD can afford millions to refurbish its buildings in London, but not this. It just makes me angry. Didn’t they fail the Falklands veterans who wished to travel back there to mark the 25th anniversary?
EDIT - They failed to help fund their travel properly? And its all the more shocking when you consider how little information we still have about the many soldiers who suffered post traumatic stress for many years afterwards. I doubt we will ever really know the true cost in lives for that war. And now we have Iraq and Afghanistan….
240.”It was the Empire, now the Commonwealth, its the Queen who should be there as Head of State of more than just the UK, as the non political figurehead.
Sarkozy is worse, but that doesn’t excuse the man hiding in No 10.”
Totally agree.
Ted, that is truly tragic personal story about your family. One of the saddest parts about doing family history anywhere in the UK, is coming across the tragedy of all those young men who died in both wars. There is a very famous story in Deeside about the tragedy of the MacRobert family. Scotsman - Call to salute the height of courage
If the westminster poll is close then the localelections will be a Tory landslde with them winning every county.
The Lib dems would lose their counties with just a chance of winning outright control of Bristol,but could just pip labour in terms of number of councillors and vote share across the country.
In the Euros the Lib dems are in danger of finishing fifth
A bit strange because You Gov Euro poll suggests that Lib Dems could be on higher national figures than 15% and normmally Populus has higher Lib dems scores than You Gov.
rogerh
rogerh
“Steve Richards: Behind the grins, Labour is resigned to a massacre”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-behind-the-grins-labour–is-resigned-to-a-massacre-1693149.html
304. I’m with you, it is all very odd.
Anyway it’s all over for Brown, I can’t imagine he can go on much longer as the darkest portent yet has appeared…snowflake5 has turned against him!
I saw a UKIP poster today while out and about, talking about uncontrolled immigration.
http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/resources/images/922265/?type=display
Obviously, I understand the point they are trying to make, but if that Vote BNP at the bottom, I wouldn’t exactly be shocked. Wonder if this will backfire for them?
321. Me. I feel sorry for Labour in many ways. From that article -
“After the Damian McBride emails and the house-flipping, some of them tell me they have no idea what their party stands for any more. According to one senior Labour figure, any association with his party is toxic in the current election campaign.”
But when we look at some Labour supporters on here - sleaze and smears is all they understand. When did Labour cease to be a moral crusade and become the party of envy, greed and smears?
321. LOL! Is Richards seriously comparing Cameron to Kinnock? And clearly his view that Nick Clegg would benefit most from all this was written before this evenings poll came out! These leftie commentators are getting more and more absurd the more desperate and depressed they get.
324. ken.
1994?
304 Brown does seem to have vanished again, doesnt he? What’s going on now? Another one of his “episodes” nodoubt…
321 / 325 - Oh looky looky, shock horror Toff bashing alert,
“One compares Cameron’s approach to an Etonian bully, picking on the weakest and protecting the stronger ones.”
Not strong leadership, or even just any bully, no had to be an Etonian bully! As if they are any different to any other, are the ones at Harrow nicer? Or the ones at St Francis Comp just not in the same league? Do you get a superior kind of bully at private schools, which you just can’t get in the state sector?
Its the sort of horse shit straight out of Fiddling Farmer Tupac’s grubby bedsit!
Also, see that Richards is completely on board with Save Operation Labour, no general election, it would be chaos you know!
292 - Typical Gordo
“In a bid to tar the Tories as the worst offenders, Mr Brown’s letter denounces the way Conservative MPs were caught using taxpayers’ money to clean their moats and maintain their swimming pools.”
Your mp’s have done far, far worse than that, what you going to do about it?
Still, just found out it IS possible to hate him mor etrhan I already do
319 Chris, one of the saddest things is perhaps, as the line from The Green Fields of France asks,
“Or are you a stranger without even a name
Forever enshrined behind some glass-pane
In an old photograph torn and tattered and stained
And fading to yellow in a brown leather frame?
My mothers step mother left me a box of papers,my grandfather’s army records from WWI and India and various other stuff, amongst which was indeed an old photograph worn and stained but in a brown cardboard frame. With most of my mothers family dead, including my mother, it was just a photo of a young Irishman in a Royal Dublin Fusilier uniform. An American cousin visiting had been researching her family and identified him as a great uncle who was killed on the Western Front aged just 18. But until then he was a nameless young man, brothers and sisters dead, their families scattered across the globe, forgotten.
304 & 322 Browns not ill. He’s simply a coward with no backbone, or sense of moral purpose.
310 LOl - seeya Tim, wouldn’t wanna be yah
I don’t know why this keeps coming up.
Everyone knows what New Labour stands for, everyone knows what New Labour has always stood for, everyone knows what New Labour always will stand for.
New Labour stands for tax.
New Labour stands for spend.
New Labour stands for SPY.
And New Labour stands for SNAFU.
When was the last time Gordo has spoken to the media (and I don’t mean writing 150 words to a newspaper from the comfort of the bunker)? That rushed Prezza where he basically said I’m doing what Cameron is, but erhhh, well only going to ditch those that “broke the rules”.
If he does stagger through to a GE, I think this could be the weirdest (and dirtiest) campaign in a long time! The man is such a coward it is unbelievable. Cameron and Clegg have got out into the media, been asked some tough questions, been embarrassed by some serious troughing, but faced up to it like men. Gordo?
Back from a week in London, extremely difficult to read the exact public mood ahead of next Thursday. Think I’m going to vote Libertas in the Euro’s - I’ve got to give the Conservatives a kicking over the expenses scandal, and I can’t stand the greedy Farage and UKIP, so where else do I go? I agree with Oborne’s view on this.
Am desperately disappointed over the behaviour of Bill Cash. Parliament needs more former Bill-drafters like him who know all the dark arts of drafting legistlation. His surgical analysis of the Lisbon treaty was one of the few great parliamentary performances in this parliament. But what he’s done over expenses letting his daughter live rent free is inexcusable in my book. I really thought he would have kept his nose clean in this expense scandal - sadly not.
As one of the few republicans on the centre right, Gordon’s mistake in not ensuring that the Queen is at the 65th anniversary of D-Day I find highly amusing!
330. I’m ashamed at my own pedantry for pointing this out, but you inspired me to listen to that song, and I think the line is “Enclosed forever”, rather than “forever enshrined”.
That said, I think I like your version better.
335 - Unless his story has changed you seem to have got the wrong end of the stick or mistyped.
I thought it went, he rented a flat from his daughter (which was paid for by ACA). He also owned a flat closer to parliament, but chose not to live in (but still paid the mortgage, bills, council tax etc out of his own pocket), and the reason he wasn’t using it was his son was squatting there. Upon the rules being changed such that you weren’t allowed to rent from family, he stopped that arrangement and then was here there and everywhere for 6 months, before using this flat his son was previously staying in.
Please correct me if the story has changed.
The way I read it, very stupid man for ever setting up this arrangement, as it just looks plain bad. However, it wasn’t against the rules and the important bit that he wasn’t paying over the market rate to his daughter, thus unlike the Sinn Fein deals, doesn’t appear to be some massive money making scam. Also, no reports of him claiming to do the flat up with a new kitchen or bathroom (another scam others have used).
I’ll be honest, I am a little drunk, but this poll makes me
337 (cont) - Other important points, again unless Cash / Telegraph have changed story / revealed more details.
1) He still had a mortgage on the flat close to parliament, and thus it was still costing him. If it had no mortgage, well obviously different kettle of fish.
2) He wasn’t renting it out to make more money, it was empty / used by son. Again, unlike Hoon and Darling who seem to get their London properties rented out and then said to the tax payer I need another home on ACA.
Like I say somebody please correct me if I have got the story wrong.
Still no idea why he would set up such an arrangement, why not have his son live in his daughter’s place and him live in this other flat. Or, if he has some issue with the flat, just sell the flat close to parliament and buy another one (which would probably end up costing the taxpayer more money).
336 just checked the Royal Irish Regiment version on my iPhone - in their version its “enshrined forever behind a glass frame” so we are both half right.
Harman favours referendum on PR….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/30/harriet-harman-interview-politics-expenses
Would she support Alan Johnson’s call for a referendum on proportional representation? “Well, I do think that the public preparedness to think about these things is much more than it was. There’s a whole load of things that have got their moment in the sun now, from changing the hours of the House to all the issues around the electoral system.” So would she back Johnson’s idea in cabinet? “I would be more positive than negative,” she says. So, in principle, she would not oppose it? “No.”
341 - Harman favours women over men, is that right too?
Is PR / ATV / STV all you think about? As every time I come on to check PB, all you seem to post about is voting systems!
One story I don’t think has been posted - Margeret Hodge letting the Labour Party use taxpayer funded office space. Looks like an outright breach of rules from the story.
Kicker though is in last line (Mr Haywood is Hodge’s constituency secretary)
“The Standard has learned Mr Haywood’s partner, Georgina Jessiman, is a senior official in the Fees Office. But he said she had taken “no part” in his discussions with the Fees Office about what Ms Hodge could claim.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23701307-details/London+MP+claims+public+money+for+Labour+party+HQ/article.do
343 - Another massive conflict of interest case! Goggins is another one who seems to have got away with an arrangement, which completely inappropriate (forgetting the free squatting issue).
These people just don’t seem to get it, or more likely just don’t seem to care how these kind of arrangements look. Mandy on the yacht with Mr Aluminum man, and oh who at the EU makes the decisions about import tariffs on metals, hmmmm…
330/336. The Fureys’ version is the definitive, imho…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntt3wy-L8Ok&feature=related
Been out and just caught the poll. So the public are not daft. Amid all the attention on the Tories, they noticed Labour were laying low and they don’t like it. The Telegraph and other media outlets will repond to this poll both in the way they report expenses and in the way they respond to Cameron.
I was out at a dinner with Michael Gove as guest speaker in Yorkshire - thought MFT might be there but I see from the thread that he was here.
242 - I suspect he might be a little more reticent on the subject if Labour were 10 points up in the polls
330.Ted, that is very poignant. I have a veritable treasure trove of items and photo’s from both wars. My g grandfather had four brothers fight in WW1, and its never been taken for granted in the family just how lucky we were that they all came home. I even have a beautiful hand embroidered card sent from France to my family at Christmas during WW1. And my g uncle was stationed in Italy towards the end of the the WW2, I have got postcards with pictures of wartime plane formations in the sky over some of the famous Italian landmarks.
347 - 342 even
A bit of fun here as I had a spare 10 minutes…The Wrath of Brown
http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/2278/khan.png
335.Hunchman, why give the Tories a kicking in the Euro’s? Cameron has been trying to clean up their expenses for a while now, and that mood is spreading in other countries in Europe. More importantly, if you want change, you have to give one of the bigger parties the power, and the mandate to deliver it. The smaller protest votes are just that, protests. They are not change.
338.councilhousetory, don’t worry, that is quite normal on here at this time on a Friday…
http://lord-elvis.blogspot.com/2009/05/champagne-socialism.html
Love the advert at the top too
“not flash, just mental”
340.Ted, I think this image really sums it up best.
330/336/345.
There were no fewer than 21 Willie McBrides killed in the First World War, and perhaps one who could have actually inspired the song…
http://www.cwgc.org/search/SearchResults.aspx?=casualty&surname=mcbride&initials=w&war=1&yearfrom=1900&yearto=2000&force=&nationality=&send.x=30&send.y=14
353 LOL I love the coundtown ticker on that page.
Tories at the trough … big sums involved
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189659/Tory-frontbencher-Eleanor-Laing-1m-profit-taxpayer-funded-flat–avoided-180-000-capital-gains-tax-bill.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189681/Tory-MP-Humfrey-Malins-claimed-58-000-flat–neighbours-say-children-lived-instead.html
341. “There’s a whole load of things that have got their moment in the sun now, from changing the hours of the House to all the issues around the electoral system.”
How … suboptimally candid Ms Harman is. Far from there being “a whole load of things”, there is one issue that the whole damn country is preoccupied with: the venality of MPs.
The hours of the house? Who in the world cares about that these days?
357. Laing could be fun on the interview circuit if she tries to argue this
“‘I also consulted the HMRC publication which is issued to all MPs. I realised, on investigating the rules, that it would be wrong … to pay capital gains tax on the flat because, although I had always regarded the flat as my second home, my main home being in my constituency, the definition of principal private residence for tax purposes is not a matter of choice, but a matter of fact.”
There is a sort of logic to it, but in the present climate I suspect the response to ‘it would have been wrong for me to pay capital gains tax’ will be less than accepting.
Daily Mail - Solemn trip for Prince Harry as he meets firefighters at Ground Zero
Gordon Brown is going to the D-Day celebrations, and no one from our Royal Family will be there, despite their long record of military service. Gordon will fly to Afghanistan for a photo op, that is the easy bit! But its Princes William and Harry who will do more to raise the profile and the plight of our injured soldiers.. Brown writes about the courage of others, while members of the Royal family have shown it in real life over the last three generations.
Other parties were always polling at around 9% two years ago. Quite a thing to see them combining at 35% in euro election polls.
This shows what would happen if Britain went PR. Eurosceptic Parties would hold the balance of power not the Lib Dems.
The euroluvvies won’t be trying PR any time soon given that this is thepicture. Their only hope is FPTP and that provides no sanctuary. It is only a question of time and Britain will withdraw from the EU. No electoral tampering can delay the process any further….except maybe massive electoral fraud organised centrally. If they use that to keep the EU in power over Britain, the consequences will be serious in the extreme.
Is Gordon Brown stupid enough to order a large scale electoral fraud to keep his vote high enough to close out eurosceptics? The evidence is that labour are using electoral fraud on a wide basis since 2005. Why would they stop now?
Britain will be shocked not by the result of the coming June 5th poll, but by the sure knowledge that such a result could only have been achieved by fraud…that is for those people who hadn’t already noticed that fraud is already the main factor in British elections.
Matthew Norman
Sir Gerald Kaufman’s £8,000 Bang & Olufsen TV is my favourite. I’m quite impressed that a man pushing 80 is so well up with the world’s most exclusive electronic goods manufacturers. We all want Sir Gerald to be able to watch his tapes of Oklahoma! & Carousel – & all the other musicals he loves – in comfort. Nobody else has tried to bully the Fees Office with quite the same charm as Sir Gerald, who set a deadline of midday the next day for them to get back to him. He also represents the seat of Gorton in Manchester, which is the setting for Shameless & is an absolute centre of urban deprivation. The cost of his TV is probably the average income of most of his constituents.
daily express:
A LABOUR MP for an inner London seat got taxpayers to pay for a 2nd home near Westminster because of safety concerns, it emerged yesterday.
West Ham’s Lyn Brown claimed over £15,000 from taxpayers last year for the home despite her constituency being just 23 mins by Tube.
Ms Brown said she would now give up the central London property which she shared with another MP. She added she suffered “a vicious attack” in her youth which left her “feeling vulnerable”.
But she did not explain why she needed two homes.
Her example follows multi millionaire Tourism Minister Barbara Follett who got taxpayers to pay more than £25,000 for private security patrols around her second home in London’s Soho.
The Stevenage MP said she feared for her personal safety after being mugged.
the ukip and green vote combined is more than libs and labs.
that tells me the wastemonster mob BOTH need to sack a few troughing people now, not let them go on health grounds at the election when they walk off with a golden handshake, as public are now not fooled by that charade and want retribution, not a slap on their wrists.