How good is the LAB>UKIP bet?
May 14th, 2009
Should you be spending big in the William Hill market?
For political gamblers there’s nothing like an election in three weeks time to get the juices running for so often the outcomes that we spend hours talking about and debating are such a long way ahead. Not so the June 4th elections.
And the big bookies are getting geared up. William Hill got a lot of punters very excited with their LAB>UKIP market which opened with 7/4 being offered on Brown’s party doing better in terms of numbers of MEPs than UKIP.
Alas I did not get on at that price but have wagered £500 at 6/5. As I write the price has moved in to evens which I think is still great value for money. Why?
No Robert Kilroy-Silk. A key part of UKIP’s appeal in 2004 was the presence of the former Labour MP and talk show presenter who came to personify the UKIP campaign and attracted a lot of the media coverage. In his East Midlands region the party got a walloping 26.1% of the vote compared with the overall GB share of 16.2%.
UKIP expenses scandals This hasn’t been much looked at by the media yet but UKIP’s record on expenses is appalling even when compared with what’s currently going on at Westminster. One UKIP MEP was imprisoned in 2007 for falsely claiming £65,000 in welfare benefits while last month another was charged with false accounting and money laundering over allegations that he misused nearly £40,000 in expenses.
Thus criminal proceedings have been taken against one sixth of the entire party contingent who were elected five years ago. UKIP cannot say a thing about the dominant political issue of the campaign without opening their own massive can of worms and you can bet that the other parties will attack them.
The rise of the BNP The territory that used to be UKIP’s own is being encroached by an increasingly successful BNP who looks set to take seats for the first time. That could eat into UKIP’s potential.
Yes - everybody is predicting a Labour crash and certainly there’s a chance that they could drop below 20% but it’s hard to see UKIP getting close enough to win on seats.
Get your money. The evens is a good bet.
Mike Smithson
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Firstee-wirstee-woo?
UKIP were supposed to tank before this kicked off.
Received a leaflet in the post from UKIP today. WHo’s bankrolling that?
And there are lots of other places to put your vote - Green, Libertas, as well as BNP.
However, should we betting on Labour under 20%?
Kilroy Silk was an asset.
Seems so long ago.
Ian Dale speculating more heads are gonna role. Where will this all end? Perhaps we’ll finish up being ruled by Kings and Queens again? A second English Revolution!
It’s as close as you can get to free money. Even the odds on UKIP winning less than 15 seats are value if you are limited in the amount you are allowed to put on Lab beating UKIP.
3. Stuart Wheeler partly
1 Yesseey-wessee - boo!!
Morely and McKay? They had some cash I hear. (Sounds like an undertakers)
Maybe Mike should do a thread on the betting implications of whether there will be mass cross party de selections ahead of the next GE? If it turns out that we are facing by elections, how many would warrant a genuine demand from the public, that a GE be called because of the ridiculous waste of taxpayers money so soon before that said GE?
This is going to be a minefield too, could an emergency GE have to be called, or can we safely assume that its now been kicked into the long grass by all parties until the smoke clears over this scandal?
I would imagine that there are is a cross party of ambitious potential PPC’s licking their lips and dusting down their CV’s right now, who gave up the thought of getting a chance at contesting a seat at the next GE?
3: Stuart Wheeler no doubt?
Good piece Mike, I’m having some of that evens.
Remember that UKIP are already tainted by the expenses issue in the European Parliament. Also, could the current state of the party render it unable to benefit from the difficulties faced by the Westminster parties?
2. Yes but that’s before it became clear that the major parties are full of sh*ts. UKIP no longer look beyond the pale.
2 Jonathan - Yes, but they will definitely get a fair chunk of disgruntled Conservative supporters voting for them, so they will do a lot better than everyone thought a few weeks ago.
The less media exposure and scrutiny they get, the better for them.
But I agree with Mike about them not overtaking Labour. (I got on at 7/4).
I have just received my BNP freepost for the european election (the one with the photo of the Polish spitfire!) and it is VERY effective. Riding many of the traditional Conservative horses without the taint of the present sleaze. This could be very ominous.
“Kilroy Silk was an asset”
And yer tell that to kids today - and they wouldn’t believe yer!
Probably the key is trying to work out the expected Labour vote. If it fell about say 20%, which is probably reasonable given the expected fall in turnover, and the state of the labour party, then that would reduce labour votes to 2,970,00O or so.
So it is probably a good bet. I would say UKIP are unlikely to increase their vote by 10% or so which would be needed.
18. Kilroy was/is worse even than Jeremy Kyle.
Thanks to caveman I got some of the 7/4. I’m very happy with that.
However, I don’t buy this idea that UKIP’s sleaze is necessarily going to stick to them. All the attention is on the House of Commons.
19 Don’t forget there is a county election on the same day. This should imply at least some serious effort on the ground, which should keep the main parties vote up.
OT stepping into the lions den on Question Time tonight we’ve got Old Mother Beckett, hopeless Mrs May and Ming The Penniless - All I can say is; They’re brave. I imagine they’ll be about as popular as someone coughing on a flight back from Mexico!
Ben Brogan (who’s surely on for a hateful of press awards over the next year) will also be appering. No doubt, given the strange views of Question Time audiances, he will also come in for a lot of stick for exposing this corrupt rabble.
The market seems to have disappeared,,,,
Fraser Nelson on the Coffee House Blog - Off camera
“What a weird day. I’m blogging this, crouching below a camera on college green, about a metre away from Nick Brown being grilled by the BBC’s Jon Sopel over Elliot Morley. Brown is a chief whip who seldom talks, but he has just admitted to BBC News that Morley ‘fessed up to this days ago. So why didn’t he suspend him then? “There are ambiguiities on all of this” Brown has just said. Really? I can’t see them.
Gordon Brown is playing catch up with Cameron, as far as I can tell, and Cameron is now not waiting for the Telegraph and, instead, hunting out his own dodgy do-ers. This is getting worse for Brown and less bad for Cameron.
Impressive to see Sopel in action. He wasn’t expecting Nick Brown and almost fished him off the street, “you’re live on BBC news, Mr Brown.” And is keeping him on the spot long enough for me to blog this. “The Tories are trying to play politics” says Brown now. Nope, Cameron is playing leadership. And at least he knows how.”
20
Is that possible?
14 - Yes but no-one would notice.
William Hill is a deranged nincompoop. Until this bet suddenly appeared, everybody was talking about how the UKIP is going to collapse. Why does a drop from 16% to 7% suddenly turn into an increase from 16% to 22%, just because a betting firm says so? It doesn’t.
Are we back to 400ism yet?
Comedy Writers Guild stuff here.
Ms Kirkbride called his resignation “the right and honourable thing” and added: “For my part, I believe that my own expenses are both permissible and reasonable and I will make my expense details available for scrutiny by my constituents as soon as possible.”
The couple’s arrangement collapsed when Mr Cameron ordered a review of all senior Tories’ expenses claims in detail in an attempt to forestall more controversies. Mr MacKay was among the first to show his claims to a small team of investigators who were said to have been astounded by what they found.
Last financial year, Mr MacKay claimed a total of £22,575 under the additional costs allowance, while Ms Kirkbride claimed £23,083. The money is supposed to pay for overnight accommodation while on work duties.
The row deepened when it emerged that Ms Kirkbride is registered to vote at the address of the Conservative Party headquarters in her constituency rather than at her own home.
The building is a cheap office block opposite a supermarket and her office confirmed that she did not live there.This would appear to be a breach of electoral law, which says you have to be resident at an address to vote.
Ms Kirkbride said in March that she did not want her constituency home address published because of letters from would-be suitors who appeared to have “a fixation” on her, after seeing her on TV.
She sponsored a Commons amendment designed to change the law so that election candidates no longer have to publish their address.
23 -
A HATEFUL of awards - good freudian slip
I suppose I am the leading UKIP fancier on here.I must emphasise that this has nothing to do with my beliefs.Except where the BNP and Respect are concerned I just let them all get on with it like contestants in Big Brother.
This morning William Hill issued the worst spelt, most expensive suicide note in history.They advertised 7-4 AGAINST Labour to get more Seats than UKIP.
Maybe it was a Stuart Wheeler inspired stunt.
That price didn’t last long and now EVENS is the offer.My theory is that Labour will be totally friendless in the media and especially the BBC.
I think that the Greens and UKIP are going to enjoy an exceptionally fair wind everywhere in an effort to hurt the BNP.
30. Certainly The Telegraphs name will be mud with politicians for the next 50 years.
For anyone thinking there will either be a reshuffle or a change of Labour leader before the next PM, theres some long odds on a successor to Alistair Darling.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/betting/e/1237/Alistair-Darling-s-Successor.html
Voters think:
- The Euros don’t count.
- The current Parliamentary parties are thieving scum.
- I wouldn’t normally vote, but I’m so angry that…
- ….I’m gonna go wild and vote. In a way that will REALLY pi55 them off!
The BNP are about to poll in the Euros in a way that they could not have believed a week ago…..
Only one by-election tonight, in Gateshead. No BNP candidate this time out, so we won’t get any indication of how well they are doing until next week. In Salford!
31 - I’m wondering if Libertas may be a dark horse in these. They were certainly popular in Ireland, and they aren’t tainted by expenses sleaze. I can see them being the recipient of the anti EU vote
re 23 hateful of press awards
An interesting Feudian slip. Indeed he’d better ensure that he keeps an eye on his drink at all times in the green room.
OT - old duffer called Lord Mackay on 5Live just now, basically saying that the two Labour peers agreeing to sell laws for cash haven’t done all that much wrong as they were exposed before the cash actually changed hands, and that 6 months’ suspension is a severe punishment.
How much more wrong could Labour possibly get the tone of these kind of interviews? They seem to have a collective death-wish.
Cook gets 100 v W Indies
According to Fraser Nelson at Coffee House, Jon Sopel didn’t know Nick Brown was coming his way.
If that is the case then Sopel is a superstar. His interview was far better than the Sky one. And he got to the heart of the issue very quickly.
I have had some at evens and wish I got on earlier.
Things are dire for Labour but UKIP are not the force they were five years ago and will lose the disillusioned right to the BNP, and some on the traditional right to Cameron who leads a more credible Tory party than IDS did. The Greens and to some extent Libertas will also compete for protest votes. So I simply cannot see UKIP matching their 16% from last time and I cannot see a sub-15% poll beating Labour unless we really are through the looking glass.
MTF you’re my lifeline, I can wait for your updates rather flit over to cricinfo
35 - “They were certainly popular in Ireland”
What gave you that impression?! You can make serious money if you really think they are capable of winning even 1 seat even in Ireland. Nobody knows who Libertas are. They will get somewhere between 0% and 2% of the vote.
35: If they had a bit more time and funding, maybe. But they lauched too late, you need time to get into the minds of normal people (ie not anoraks like us).
36 Chris A. Might that be the evil Baron Von Hisdrink ? A dangerous adversary indeed !
35. Be a horrible mistake if they do.
Libertas aren’t anti-EU, just anti-Lisbon, anti-Constitution.
32
Stopped buying the Labourgraph ages ago. This story wont persuade me to buy it again. After all, what journalism was done to get hold of this stuff when it was being hawked about. Hardly investigative save for trawling thro receipts and checking them, more of an auditors job.
37 - I would imagine that that is Lord Mackay of Clashfern who ISTR was Lord Chancellor under the Major government.
UKIP ‘does what it says on the tin’. Same with the Greens. Everyone knows about the BNP.
No-one knows who Libertas, Veritas or Jury Team are. They haven’t got their message out. And they have stupid names that mean absolutely nothing. They are completely inconsequential. A shame, but that’s the way it is.
FPT
547 Christina - sorry for the delay in replying. I do understand the distinction between the short and longer term ramifications of what has happened. One as yet unrecognised plus for the Tories to come out of all this is that it will probably result in Brown remaining in office until May 2010.
That said, serious damage has been done by a small number of greedy, selfish individuals. To be honest though, it goes rather deeper than that. The public now knows how thoroughly corrupt the whole system is, they will also know that even those MPs who themselves may have been “whiter than white” have done nothing to remedy the situation which ha been in place for many years preferring instead to allow the wholesale thieving we have witnessed to continue. The whole thing is a bloody disgrace and I feel won’t be readily forgiven. Brown and Cameron stand in front of the Dispatch Box wringing their hands trying to appear statesmanlike, yet both must have been aware of the opportunities which have been available for troughing on a grand scale - not good enough, sorry
I’m happy with my bets this afternoon with stjohn and DC. For the Tories to win 356 seats was always going to be a mountain to climb, starting at a base camp of circa 200 seats It will now be like climbing Everest wearing slippers and without any oxygen.
UKIP’s Leader Farage has also been economical with the actualite about his boasts that he dealt swiftly with UKIP MEP Tom Wise.
To quote BBC’s Mark Mardell, 21 April 2009 “UKIP’s leader Nigel Farage told me he acted quickly and expelled Mr Wise from the party when the allegations first surfaced some years ago. “I had no hesitation in getting rid of him.”
http://tinyurl.com/crq9m3
Facts from Douglas Denny who sits on the NEC of UKIP and has been a supporter of Farage. 26-04-2009 “”He declined to renew his membership March 1st (09). Whilst he was removed from the UKIP MEP whip and Ind Dem group (which incidentally has nothing to do with UKIP as a party - and causes endless confusion); he could remain a UKIP member as there was no disciplinary case against him.”
http://tinyurl.com/dnc6j2
So the truth is that Farage did not kick Tom Wise out of UKIP some years ago or ever, it never happened…… “No disciplinary case”
1414 people took part in this Con home survey
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/05/twothirds-of-tory-members-say-andrew-mackay-should-leave-commons.html
47 - good grief, you are probably right. It’s a Tory plot then!
41 LOL
Bopara is 84 not out
33 Tim - Hills’ Successor to Darling market - interesing to see that Ed Balls has shortened from 20/1 to 14/1 today - probably in the belief that he will emerge unscathed from the expenses mess. His wife shouldn’t be completely either overlooked at 50’s, she is after all Darling’s #2.
I have a suspicion that the next set of polls will be epochal - and I rather fear the Tory vote is about to collapse. Can’t escape the growing and gnawing fear that the Tories have blown the next election, and yet, can Labour hold on?
Guess - Con 31, Lib Dem 30, Lab 18, Others 21
You heard it here first
I am betting that the percentages for the EU elactions are as follows:
Tory 32%
L/Dems 20%
Labour 18%
BNP 11%
Ukip 9%
greens 7%
others3%
46
The work the Sunday Times have been doing on the House of Lords however is cracking journalism.
Mike is right, there is a very good chance that the media will start to focus on UKIP and they have a far worse record of swill filling representatives than the other parties. Hard as that is to imagine.
49 Agree it’s an Everest to climb (Cameron at his most optimistic reportedly expects a majority in the 15 seat plus/minus 5 range but what we have seen in last week is the media come round to seeing Cameron as a strong PM in waiting, that will colour reports from now on.
Irrespective of taunts of why didn’t he do anything earlier he has shown leadership, fleetness of foot that will IMHO mean that when it comes to GE many voters will take the gamble and vote for him (though not necessarily like his party). Te EU & locals will give opportunity for a kicking for established parties but the crisis will be over by Autumn (perhaps a few court cases to remind people) and then its serious stuff of next 5 years and choice based on character then policies. Cameron wins on character, and policies? probably.
55 - Not going to happen!
James B, in your blog - if there are no annual elections then the UK is not an electoral democracy for four or five years on the trot.
If I had my way I’d scrap over-long summer and Easter recess and have annual GEs
60 What’s your prediction James (genuine interest)
55. Any Bets?
62 - Conservatives 38-42, Labour 23-27, Lib Dem 21-24.
55. Which would produce a HoC something like
Lab 302
Con 244
LD 64
SNP 11
PC 5
Oth 6
NI 13
29.
“Ms Kirkbride called (McKay’s) resignation “the right and honourable thing”
In thickness and in wealth? Ms Kirkbride registering herself at the Tory HQ and not registering herself at her real home is actually commiting TWO election offences. Perhaps she may soon be employed as a prison visitor? Couldn’t happen to a nastier man: remember the racist filth put out for Mr McKay in his first dabble in UK elections? Maggie T said that all leaders need a Willie. Chameroeon seems to have picked a reet prick.
@62: I reckon 36, 23, 22 Con Lab Lib And that will be around about the low point prior to the GE which will still be in 2010.
Cripes! Look who’s here from a few weeks back maxing out the Propaganda Allowance!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/.a/6a00d83451b31c69e201156f6d6887970c-pi
65 - Only on your slide rule. In real life, you must be joking.
61 - Why do we need to have elections every single year? London manages to miss out electing any one every other year. Democracy isn’t about quanitiy of elections but quality of representationa and governance.
BBC reporter in Scunthorpe on R4 spoke to 63 people and 62 were upset. 1 was prepared to give Morley the benefit of the doubt….
Dead MP walking….
But Gordon thinks it is ok just to suspend him and pass the buck to a committee outside Labour which normally takes 6months….
65. Labour suggested as on 18% and you have them with 302 seats????? Have you confused the Lab vs Lib numbers?
56 Weathercock - BNP too high, UKIP too low IMO. Greens might also do better - they’ll get the ‘plague on all your houses’ vote from the soft left.
55. Complete Rubbish, What planet are you on?
56. I THINK YOU ARE OVERESTIMATING BNP BY A MILE BUT YOUR CON LAB LIB FIGURES ARE REALISTIC !
UKIP will hoover up a number disgruntled Conservative voters. Most will not go the full monty and vote BNP. However, it will surely not be enough to beat Labour.
If they do, then we are also looking at a very weak Conservative showing.
65. Eh? Labour largest party on 18% of the vote? Hahaha, pull the other one Rod.
53. Bopara =103
76. It’s the wonders of rod’s spreadsheet. whatever numbers you type in it comes out with Labour lead in hung parliament. lol
48.
“Everyone knows about the BNP.”
You are a complacent fool if you believe this. Loads of voters have not got a clue about what Griffin’s filth really stand for. Let’s face it, nobody ever knew waht Tony Blair stood for or Chamereon will really stand for when he gets round to making up his mind.
65. How would Labour be on 302 seats with just 18% of the vote? Something wrong there, I think?
BBC R4 John Pienar on Morley “spoke to a QC who said his advice for the CPS would be just go to court and let the people decide….”
oooops
Yet G Brown thinks he just needs to be suspended to “clear his name”.
78 -
“55. Which would produce a HoC something like
Lab 302 Con 244 LD 64 SNP 11 PC 5 Oth 6 NI 13
”
Which, in turn would lead to the collapse of the system, possibly preceded by violence and disorder as the result sinks in. You can’t have a system that corrupts the voters will, especially as those who would benefit have been shown to be the most corrupt.
Anyone think there might not be a significant drop in support for anyone? Maybe 4% at most in any direction (which is just outside MOE but likely to go up when the public/press get bored with this story).
There is a bit of comedy about claiming for moats etc in the outside world, and Cameron himself has come out well (and if the public think that he’s the party rather than the McKays) so would probably prevent any possible Tory freefall.
Not sure if Labour can drop much lower so don’t expect them to slump below 20-25%.
LDs and others might get a boost.
In other words, if you’re semi-committed right now, where else can you exactly go if they’re all the same as each other?
Way O/T but can someone explain what a Monk is supposed to know about sex?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8049853.stm
68 Well, well, well. And Cawsey was renting a house from Morley!
34 17
Yes the BNP leaflet is very professional.
I have not received any from the Conservatives or Labour or LibDem. UKIP and BNP are the only leaflets I have.
All you guys slagging off UKIP are wasting your time. The thing is , the protest vote will be about Westminster issues..and that is toxic to all three WESTMINSTER parties.
Toxic..
And with more and worse to come, I suspect the Opinion polls will go all over the place…
79 BNP
“You are a complacent fool if you believe this. Loads of voters have not got a clue about what Griffin’s filth really stand for.”
I think you are wrong.
Many voters will NOT CARE. (They are NOT Labour, Tory or LibDem)
How about BNP at 4-1 to win 5 or more seats in the euros?
72. Oops
Con 284
LD 158
Lab 150
SNP 23
PC 5
Oth 12
NI 13
James B, because then politicians won’t have 4 to 5 years to trough!
64.
As usual a very sensible prediction ! Is there a poll due tonight ? Mike mentions several being imminant, that seems a bit OTT?
64 More like it, I think James. But given the saturation coverage of and the beginnings of the Euro stuff coming through the door I would be tempted to stretch the spread a little lower for Cons and Lab. And back some points to the Tories for Daves good press and them being the opposition. Bonus points to the LD for being an anti politics party.
Tory 36-44
Labour 19-29
LD 18-28
Best Guess C-39, L-24 LD-24
56 Weathercock old cock.When you say “I am betting”, is that just a figure of speech or do you mean it ?
I am willing to lay my half-a-crown to your two shillings that UKIP poll more votes than the BNP on June 4th.
63 no, not bets on it - its just a feeling, a sinking feeling.
Perhaps half of me thinks they deserve it. I am really quite concerned that the BNP will be a fixture on the scene and we will have twats like MacKay and Morley to thank for it.
Free the Maples one though, the guy should not have been rogered.
89. That looks more realistic Rod!
89. Thats better. Labour down to the third party, Lib-Dems the official opposition, Tories able to govern as a minority administration for a year to sort out the expenses mess and then go on to win a landslide in 2010!
@92: Is that in the election itself, or in the next poll?
89. That would be a beautifully interesting Parliament. I’d guess it’d be confidence and supply from the Lib Dems for things like expenses reform, scrapping ID cards and a cost-cutting budget, and then it would fall fairly early on and we’d return to an entrenched two party system of Lib Dem vs Con (as many Labour voters would realise the Lib Dems were now the alternative on the left).
mmm.. no more Labour, I’m getting dreamy about the prospect. Won’t happen of course, but if only…
97 Next Poll
89. As flexible as ever.
@99: Interesting! You’re punchier for the Tories than I am. I think there will be a bit more “uncertainty to vote” melt-away, rather than switchers-to-other-parties.
89 - LD get only 8 more on nearly double the votes? Interestingly Wells’ in that bizarre prediction even has Labour ahead of the LDs in seats!
Poster of the day for me is ‘ZEBRAS’ and that includes all the heavyweight pundits.
Timothy talks sense.
4-1 the Greens winning more than 10 seats looks worth a punt IMO. The three main parties have been tarnished by recent revelations and UKIP have had their own problems with expenses. This leaves the Greens and the BNP (in England anyhow). I expect the BNP to do well but the Green should do better, especially among those with queasy stomachs. Any odds on the green winning more seats than the LibDems? This is a real possibility.
90 - Well that assumes that whatever system you have MP’s are going to seek to trough. My point on annual elections is to do with Councils where I think the annual elections are deeply confusing for voters. When I was a candidate I got lots of queries asking why one of the other 2 ward Councillors weren’t standing, or whether I was replacing one of them. Plus once elected almost every case I took up ran into the problem of voters playing the three ward councillors against each other it didn’t work as we were all in the same party but I think this multi-member ward system is utterly ludicrous.
Let’s get this Norman Baker thing straight, I live in Lewes, which is a small place.
Norman Baker owns a property on Lewes High Street, a small shop with a flat above. Baker lives in the flat above his own shop.
The shop has never been rented out since he moved his office a couple of years ago [2006/7 IIRC], from his shop to a commercially rented office round the corner on the adjoining street.
He may claim the shop is used commercially, but it isnt - he merely sticks a couple of paintings by local artists in the window, so his claim that he could have profited by letting it out, had he not used the shop himself doesnt really hold water
Baker and his Lib Dem pals are certainly riled - calling the local Conservatives “The Nasty Party” for having the audacity to criticise him
102. Yes, its not right. When the Tories form the next government they really need to take away at least 50 of Labours seats in boundry changes. That’d even things up a bit.
As Our Gracious Host pointed out on R5 (but not mentioned here) we are in the run up to the EU elections, already rules on equal time apply (wonder if that’s affecting reports on sleaze? ) and voters, irrespective of Expenses, would be getting mailings from minor parties so would expect the polls to become more volatile and shares of Conservative & Labour to fall.
Add in greedy MPs and it’ll probably be worse.
All polls until late |June/early July suspect IMHO, and then its the summer, then conferences. That means we probably will have 4 or 5 polls pre-recess and then have to wait until October for robust ones again.
Evening all. So the first heads have rolled! Mackay has always struck me as a smug git and he will be no loss at all to Cameron. If Guido is to be believed it’s possible that his local party will force him to stand down at an emergency meeting next week. I read something earlier that as well as getting rid of a ticking timebomb, throwing Mackay to the wolves will make it nearly impossible for Brown to protect Balls if he gets caught up in this. Personally I think married couple MP’s should only get one home allowance.
So any ideas as to who gets humiliated tonight?
101. I broadly agree with Jonathan. Think we’ll see the Tories under 40 again, but any loss in their support will be mitigated with a loss in Labour support too. I suspect the Lib Dems will pick up a point or two, but nothing radical as they have their own problems.
I would love there be a poll with LDs and Labour equal (or LDs above Labour) though. It would really make my day. As much as Clegg irritates the heck out of me, I’d feel much better about the Lib Dems being the leftist alternative than authoritarian corrupt Labour.
102. Wells isn’t factoring in the SNP who would take lots of Labour seats…
105. STV should do the trick, no?
101 That’s true. I guess it comes down to who’s polling positon is more vulnerable to that. Will Labour’s number hold up because it’s already there as a factor, or has this been the final-straw. The reverse applies to the Tories.
Overall, I think the Tory poll will hold up more because it is associated with opposition.
93. URW. I am willing to lay my half-a-crown to your two shillings that UKIP poll more votes than the BNP on June 4th.
Done! 5:4 is just my metier. My £20 to your £25.
to be paid via PB 24 hrs after last results through.
109 ‘Personally I think married couple MP’s should only get one home allowance.’
No, they should just have the gumption to only claim for one home. Actually, they can’t be trusted. Go with your idea.
112. Precisely. Incumbents could be kicked out without changing the overall result.
Labour came third just last year let’s not forget:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2008
I do not think the greens will get more than five seats. Green politics have taken a back seat in voters mind since the recession and they have no media talent that can grab voters attention just like Kilroy Silk.
Any money against UKIP looks like great value. They are falling apart at the seems.
As for the BNP, the polls show them gaining the same amount as the last elections so I would be wary before putting any money on them to get multiple seats.
106 Hypocrite Baker getting fingered is one of the joys of this set of scandals - he is possibly the most priggish idiot that ever sat in parliament.
BREAKING NEWS **** BREAKING NEWS **** BREAKING NEWS **** BREAKING NEWS
Leader of Jacobite Party Suspended !!!!
JNN is reporting to the Press Association that the Leader of the Jacobite Party - Mr Jack W - has been suspended after concerns about his expense claims. Some of the detail which have just been released :
Refurbishment of dungeons - £6 Million
New sprung flooring in ballroom - £346,127
Gold livery buttons for footman - £4,957
Annual Subscription to Stewart Jackson Fan Club - £340
Bang and Olafson Sound System in Jacobite State Coach - £56,891
Ladies Shoes - £742,986.
Dancing Poles (Equipment) - £9,564
Dancing Poles (Staff from Warsaw) - £54,893 per week
In a statement full of remorse and shame that is the hallmark of many MP’s, Mr Jack W said :
“Bollocks to the lot of you. I’m worth every penny !!!”
@113: I think I’m in about the same place as you - just that it might be slightly more elastic: a slightly bigger dip and a slightly quicker return.
112 - No because you just replace one confusing system with a new confusing system. I don’t have this total hang up with 50%.
104 - Perhaps the worst betting advice on this website ever? The Greens will be doing well to retain both their seats. 10 or more is ridiculous. Have I just failed to see the funny side of a spoof post?
Sorry, but after all Brown’s attempts to become the most popular contestant in the photo caption contests, could not resist linking to this one of Cameron. Those with weak stomachs, not advisable.
Boulton&Co - How To Do A Photo Op
114 Schmerel.You called my bluff.Half-a crown to two bob is my max.
Best Regards.
109 / 115 - they’d probably start “flipping” partners with each other!
122. It doesn’t confuse the Irish.
120 Jack W, nothing for wigs and powder? Very suspicious.
122. Confusing but fairer!
I repeat my assertion that annual elections will keep politicians (at all levels) on their toes. If they are popular they will be rewarded by the electorate, if not, well they won’t be LOL.
113. Hmm, interesting point Jonathan.
Anecdotal evidence alert! The three non-political-anoraks I have spoken to/overheard discussing expenses said the following (paraphrasing):
1. I’m so angry at these *Labour* MPs cashing in for all these country houses
2. They’re all at it, it’s disgusting, but what can you do?
3. Why are the papers wasting their time on this story? We all know they’re corrupt anyway…
.. suggests to me that whilst the main parties will take the inevitable hit, it’s hardly going to drive people in droves into the arms of minor parties. Thought the first was interesting too - some people actually do associate MPs with the government, and if they haven’t really seen much of the news and have a disconnect I doubt it will harm the Tories so drastically.
120
Jack W
You neglected to add:
Medical expenses including 2 weeks’ recuperation in a Swiss spa : £35,000
126 Don’t even go there. That’s Saturday’s Telegraph
120.Jack W.You should be ashamed.This is scarcely a joking matter.
re 65. You are excelling yourself Rod. That is just about the biggest pile of garbage I’ve ever seen from you and really raises question marks about all your election arithmetic.
The Wells calculator makes is it: C338-L203-LD-76-OTH15.
Jack W - don’t Jacobites need funds for renting an old French man o’war and some soldiers?
123 - I agree 4-1 looks poor value for 10 Green seats. But do you really think they “will be doing well to retain both their seats”?
The Green performance in 2004 was no better than adequate. This time they are quite well placed to benefit from the rise of the “others”, and generally have a somewhat appealing “greed is bad” message in the present economic and political climate. I can see them ticking upwards (although not to 10 seats).
@JackW:
I hope you’ll be scraping off your sprung flooring and donating it to needy MPs without moats and helipads.
128/131 EdP/Mad.. There on the next list !!
130
The Tory voting Cheshire set read their papers and they are not happy bunnies..
134
Theres a lot of garbage about polls . How about a polls prediction comp Mike !
@140: Poll prediction is even more infested with voodoo than polling itself. That’s what makes it fun. Personally, I rub my wax diorama of the 1983 Tory Cabinet and try to clear my mind until numbers appear.
133 URW. It’s beyond satire !!
129 - Not really very fair that people get the least unpopular candidate, not the most popular.
134. You appear to have made a different error to the one I made, but an error nonetheless..
136 - I do think they will be doing very well to retain both seats. They would not have won a seat in London based on the 2008 Assembly results, they have to step up this year to retain that seat. Where are gains possible? North-West? Just about but I dont think it’s a possibility at all. There’s no other region where they could realistically win a seat.
10+ seats would be poor value at 100/1.
134 Mike Smithson.Take a chill powder, sir.
To give Crosby credit he has not engaged in triumphalism on the day when his swingback theory finally has a chance.
We are now in kaleidoscopic times,my friend…as opposed to monochromatic times.
@142:
Either we laugh at this, or we all claw our eyes out with incandescent, impotent fury.
Daily Telegraph political editor Andrew Porter has just said on BBC News that tomorrow’s story will be equally as bad as today’s. One can only imagine what he means by that. Rumours surround James Purnell, the Balls family and one or two others. But then again, it could be someone who hasn’t been mentioned before.
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
Nick Whyte regularly runs a competition on his NI elections website. But not sure if he’s running one this year.
125. URW: What a WANKER you really are. Just as I thought; no guts.
Not even for a measley £25. SHMOCK dosn’t begin to describe you.
143. but most popular can also be most UNpopular, by an even larger margin.
STV doesn’t guarantee a Condorcet Winner, but it will stop a Condorcet Loser.
118 MrJames
Any money against UKIP looks like great value. They are falling apart at the seems.
I think that slightly misses the point. They are a well-known brand. A voter wanting to make a protest, especially a disguntled Conservative voter who is Euro-sceptic or Euro-hostile, may well scan the list, reject the BNP (too racist) and Greens (not to his taste), see various other names that mean nothing to him (’Libertas’, ‘Jury Team’), and finally put that big X by the one non-Westminster-Party name he recognises: UKIP.
They won’t do spectacularly well, but they’ll do quite well.
148 How long before any politicians talk to Andrew Porter again? This is real Death or Glory stuff from The Telegraph.
120.
“nothing for wigs and powder?”
Jack W is not a secret member of the shadow cabinet is he? They seem to be using more dye than wigs these days. Chamereon’s top looked like it had been tarred down at PMQs last week.
Now cash for Whigs in purdah is another matter!!
151 - The person with the most votes should win, not the person who is ranked third by most people.
153
wasnt Porter a mate of MCBrides??
156 Yup. Maybe it’s a suicide mission for McBride by proxy.
@155: Quite, and the reason that we shouldn’t, and probably won’t, change is that people have learned how to work the system we’ve got to get the result they want.
Any change leads to a different set of compromises, and it could be a whole generation before the electorate learns how to work it.
154 wage slave.
155. Even if (for argument’s sake) 70% of the electorate don’t vote for them?
Anyone else seen the latest Labour PEB?
Negative
Full of lies
Very McBride
Douglas Hogg to repay £2,200
I am not persuaded UKIP will do any better than last time even with all the sleazy expense stuff - UKIP in 2004 had loads of celeb endoursements + Kilroy Silk. I actually think BNP will hover some of the Labour votes up rather than UKIP. That’s not to say that the Tories will not leach votes to UKIP but i think the big transfer would be more likely from Labour to BNP. I don’t see BNP getting more than 10% either.
Get a grip!
I notice that Mr Hogg is repaying the dosh for his moat clearance!
Maybe we can arrange for Gordon to walk the plank into it or some sort of burning at the stake!
163 Huh? But I thought he said he didn’t actually claim for the moat? Has he been telling fibs?
156. According to Private Eye:
“McBride’s best pals in the lobby, apart from Daily Mirror columnist Kevin Maguire, were Patrick Hennessy of the Sunday Telegraph, Andrew Porter of the Daily Telegraph, George Pascoe Watson of the Sun and Ben Brogan, until recently of the Daily Mail but now chief political commentator on the Daily Telegraph. McBride’s tactic was to appeal to Thatcherite newspaper readers dissatisfied by David Cameron’s liberal tone.”
It’s a funny old world.
from Nick Robinson
“There is now, I should note, a growing gulf between party leaders and their MPs. Tories are complaining to me about what one calls “summary mob justice” in which all are judged guilty so that the good are punished while the real bad guys escape lightly.
Voluntary repayments by the shadow cabinet of legitimate claims for furniture, repair works or gardening were repaid, I was told, as “the price of David Cameron’s press release”. The tariff for extravagance has been set high. What will be the tariff for flagrant breach of the rules?”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
If true, and there ARE complaints from Conservative MPs as above, some Conservative MPs still have no idea what is likely to happen and how angry their constituents are…
163.
” cannot believe some of the B0ll0cks written on these pages today about the Tories prospects… ”
martin believes he has a monopoly here on writing B0ll0cks on this subject?
166. A quick scan of the comments on Conservative Home should make everything clear to them!!
160 - Yes, that is an unfortunate anomaly, but that is life.
145 - I think you are underestimating the possibility of a UKIP collapse. Should they dip significantly below 10%, as they may, that frees up one seat in most regions - and it’s a bit of a lottery who gets it.
I don’t see Jean Lambert as under real threat in London - the London Assembly elections are very different with all the focus on the Mayoral race. Nor Caroline Lucas, who’s profile is reasonably strong, in the SE.
Whilst the canvassers for ukip are genuine. The leadership needs a careful and precise in depth investigation.
That, I believe, would reveal them to be unworthy of any support. What have they done? What have they achieved? They have certainly lined their pockets with EU euros but just what have achieved for those poor people who placed their trust in them?
People will be drawn to the BNP in place of Labour. Conservatives and Lib Dems in place of greens. The Greens are a one issue bloody boring party, with a very poor leader!
165
I still think Journos would rate more loathed than MP’s. I wouldn’t trust ANY journo, whatever their political persuasion might seem…
@155:
So, it’s okay for MPs to be elected where around 60% have explicitly expressed the opinion that they don’t want that person to be elected?
171
The BNP’s leaflet says all BNP MEPs will pay 10% of their salaries to a fund to give grants for local community groups to celebrate St George’s day..
Clever marketing in today’s climate..
My predictions for Gordo’s reshuffle:
Smith sacked replaced by Darling
Darling replaced by Balls
Miliband sacked replaced by Mandelson
Ed Miliband to schools
A stronger Brownite cabinet. Primed to fail spectacularly. But gives Balls what he wants and disrupts potential negatives.
What odds that Brown panics and does this before the Euros?
65. Rod, hopeful on the SNP there, it will be 12 or over and you will be paying out on our bet, guaranteed.
Rod , your 89 is much better
168 Noticeable how Eric Pickles repented and realised the depth of feeling after QT. Lansley hopefully also realised that outside of the Westminster bubble there is real anger after his appearance.
Cameron knew already but his MPs don’t yet all get it. They will if they are in their constituencies this weekend.
.
.
Have been at a print finishers today - Tudor Print Finishers Very flexible operation (mention my name if you need them!). Watched Euro election ballot papers being cut and packed. The ballot papers have 15 parties - people will just pick a pretty logo, if they bother to vote.
166 ‘If true, and there ARE complaints from Conservative MPs as above, some Conservative MPs still have no idea what is likely to happen and how angry their constituents are…’
If they don’t like it, they can stand down. Someone else will be happy to take their place under the new terms.
I do feel some sympathy for those who haven’t fiddled the system, but it’s a great shame that they chose to keep schtum. They must have known what was going on, and only have themselves to blame by not speaking out sooner against the fiddlers.
174 - Yep. I can see the morris dancers and WI queuing up for BNP sponsorship… the street-parties will be fab if a bit raucous and fascist-y for my taste.
Did anybody else just see the labour party broadcast!!! OMG. Is that the best they can do! I couldnt stop laughing.
Labour = Zero ideas
148. The Balls’ expenses have been swilling around in the Westminster village air and on here for days now. They’ve got to come up at some point - there seems to be a bit of a nudge-nudge thing going on there - like everyone knows it’s bad for them, but not wanting to explicitly say it.
I wonder what the odds are on Brown having to sack both Balls and Cooper? How embarrasing that would be!
170 - I dont think I am underestimating the possibility of a UKIP collapse, I expect them to lose loads of seats and I’m presuming they will lose their seat in London for example. These elections are very different from the London Assembly all right and there is evidence that the smaller parties were squeezed last year. That said I can assure you that no-one in the Green party is treating Jean’s seat as safe and I think it will be a very good result if it is retained.
173 - Yes, I would have no problem losing to someone who got more votes than me and yet not 50%.
180, I am not going to vote BNP.
179, it’s a report by Robinson. He said yesterday he expected Tories to complain to him just after hearing Cameron’s press conference and was surprised they didn’t. Maybe a few have complained, but given Toenails’ reputation I’m not entirely convinced.
@181:
“Cameron’s Conservatives”? Labour have learned literally nothing.
Richard Nabavi yes I agree that UKIP have the brand name but they are an absolute shower with their membership half what it was. There are other choices for the angry vote now. UKFP is close in initials to UKIP. No2EU sounds more anti-eu than UKIP.
Tories ‘can get more Scots MPs’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8049625.stm
Goldie: ‘Don’t judge us on past’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8050247.stm
Take a look at Labour’s latest PPB:
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/new_labour_party_party_broadcast_camerons_conservatives.html
Doesn’t impress me as I’ve never seen the merit of such direct knocking copy in British politics. But a couple of questions? Why make up Tory policies? What does any of this have to do with the local and Euro elections? Why no mention of Labour’s ‘achievements’ or policies? And is it fairplay for a major political party to take out a website in the name of the leader of its main opposition? i.e. http://www.cameronsconservatives.co.uk
Did Tony Blair have anything like the expenses affair to deal with while he was opposition leader?
@184:
Then frankly, you’re weird and in a massive minority.
The blindingly obvious thing is to reduce the number of MPs, increase the salary to something like 100-120k, abolish all their dubious allowance systems and leave it at that. Then they’re being paid around the level of a fairly high-up City worker and you can’t really complain on a wage like that that you’re finding it hard to make two ends meet, even with two places of work.
182 - Brown won’t sack Balls
He can’t
I think the term is ‘frit’
Without Balls, Brown is left totally exposed and he can’t have that.
Cooper is easy to sack - Balls will hang around
All this talk about voting for other parties. I think its more likely that as a protest people just wont vote.
186 - Shows how desperate they are that they go that negative. Some ot their claims were bordering on outright deceit. I suspect it will backfire.
190 AnnaK, I don’t think so. The Telegraph suggested today that the expenses scam is the worst scandal ever to hit UK politics.
‘Scottish Tories in election vow ‘
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Scottish-Tories-in-election-vow.5268177.jp
PR is fairer - that is life, James.
Looks like the general election is going to get really nasty
Todays Labour Party Political Broadcast
Alex Massie: ‘The Caledonian Campaign Next Year’
I’d also suggest that, 12 years on from being wiped out in 1997, they need to make significant gains to remind English conservatives that Scotland - and the Union - remains worth fighting for. The party leadership seems to think so - Fox, Gove, Osbourne and Cameron are all speaking here this week - but the English grassroots are not so sure. That being so, it would be useful if the Scottish Tories were able to do more to pull their weight…
The Scottish campaign may be a sideshow, but that doesn’t mean it’s of no relevance…
http://www.spectator.co.uk/alexmassie/3617756/the-caledonian-campaign-next-year.thtml
189, very negative. Brown’s importing American political tactics, it seems.
‘Rift emerges between Lib Dem MSPs and MPs over expenses’
Scottish Liberal Democrats were today at odds with their UK party leader in the political furore over second homes for MPs.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Rift-emerges-between-Lib-Dem.5267411.jp
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8050283.stm
I wish I’d had more on Labour to beat UKIP at 6/5. Now 4/6. Probably still amazing value but hard to back at that price when you missed 7/4.
Home Secretary Market on 31/12/09 is very interesting. We can be very confident that Jacqui Smith will be replaced. What are the odds that Balls and Cooper are going to come out badly over Expensesgate? Evens? Longer?
If they are both at least under a cloud in the next few days then it’s hard to see how Brown could promote either of them. So that would take out the favourite and a lively outsider, progressivley narrowing the field.
I’m sticking with my 3 for now. Blunkett, Denman and Milburn.
191 - I don’t accept that I’m in a massive minority. I don’t see the attraction of electing the person who gets to 50% simply by virtue of being less dislikeable than anyone else on the ballot. That is a recipe for electing timid and insipid politicians and for having governments that never do anything whatsoever that risks making them even marginally less popular. Finally it makes an election not about winning but about not losing, it is insane.
201. is the punchbag a metaphor for what Brown wants to do to Cameron? it’s a tad obsessive but cleverly unnerving. not a bad effort really.
202. Stuart , that will be Tavish’s profits down the stank then.
East Lothian candidate selection news:
County Lib-Dems’ constituency convenor Stuart Currie is understood to have thrown his hat into the ring to replace Amy Rodger as the party’s General Election candidate.
Mr Currie, of Port Seton (pictured), is understood to be among the nominees for the vacancy created by Ms Rodger’s shock resignation last month for “personal and professional reasons”.
http://www.eastlothiancourier.com/news/roundup/articles/2009/05/14/387500-currie-in-libdem-westminster-bid/
198 - I don’t think it is fairer in a wider sense. It encourages a path of least resistance mentality and the path of least resistance is straight downhill.
189. That’s literally hideous. Typical Labour - smear, smear, smear.
I knew this was going to happen though. They have nothing to sell to the public so they resort back to typical old-Labour class envy and weepy “your brother would DIE, yes, DIE if the Tories were in power!” subtexts.
The punchbag thing is very close to the bone too - obviously a metaphor for the rich Tories to beat up the granny and the student. It’s hideously distasteful.
It’s actually the worst PPB I’ve ever seen, from any party. Includes Jennifer’s Ear. Includes Things Can Only Get Better. Includes Dave the Chameleon. Includes Michael Howard’s Dog Whistle, and includes Hague’s rather embarrasing Save The Pound sideshow.
Most of those were pretty bad, but when they focussed on the negative they either did it in a more substantive way or at least dressed it up to be ‘quite funny’ (eg Dave the Chameleon, not that I was amused).
But *that*… urgh. That’s just nasty and brutal gutter politics. Horrible. I hope they never return to power again.
203 - I wonder how heavy their exposure is? I am a pretty cautious gambler but still had £100 at evens (got in late sadly). I imagine a lot of people had much more and cannot think many took the UKIP odds.
Baskerville says: 6:01 pm “Take a look at Labour’s latest PPB”
That is a truely awful PPB.
Rule one of campaigning do not promote your opponents.
Rule two do not attack their main strength. (Cameron)
Is the follow up PPB going to say that “David Cameron eats babies” and “David Cameron will make your naughty bits shrink”?
199 Dreadful PPB from Labour. All negatives. Were they tempted to suggest ‘David Cameron will eat the unborn child torn from your womb’ - maybe that one ended up on the cutting room floor? There were some outright lies in that broadcast. Interesting to see that they went with timmy’s IHT rant at the end.
Nothing positive to say about themselves? Funny that.
205. It’s unnerving because it’s unnerving that a political party could come up with something so negatively unsettling and nasty. I don’t want to sound like I’m going on a rant about this (I’ve probably failed!) but I just don’t think there’s any need for such blatently negative broadcasts in UK politics. They could have at least focussed on the positives of Labour (ha ha!) for half of it?
208. That is AV you’re talking about. In an STV poll, you have multi-seat constituencies. One part of the UK already has it.
209 12.Where were you and the likes of you when Clegg was calling your Party ‘The Ally of Paedophiles’ ?
You were nowhere because you are a know-nowt.It goes with the territory.
211. Karl Rove disagree’s. He says go for their best asset and turn it into a negative which is what it tries to do. It’s not pretty but some powerful messages in it.
215.Directed to numbertwelve, now at 213.
198 PR is fairer? how bizarre, so the smallest party decides who is to be the government as in Germany or 50 governments in Italy since WWII or how about Israel’s fair PR system where extreme religeous zealots get to bend the main parties election manifesto - after the election! First Past the Post is fairer as Elliott Morley, even in a very safe Labour seat might be about to find out.
211. Indeed, they don’t seem to have listened to Johnson’s suggested tone (ie appreciate Dave’s an OK guy, but his backbenchers are unreconstructed and will hamper him being the voice of change). They just want to smear Dave and co.
198. Not if you’re more interested in electing individuals than party apparatchiks.
I do love a good debate about voting systems.
193. Balls will hang around
Balls always hang!
202.”A controversial allowance which enabled MSPs from far-flung constituencies to buy homes in Edinburgh has being scrapped, but this will not take full effect before the end of the current Holyrood parliament in 2011.”
Stuart, I saw this coming last night after watching Newsnight. I had not realised that this practice would not end until 2011. And that news is being to catch fire again up here as we see the fall out from Holyrood. Very stupid move by Tavish Scott IMHO.
I hope those people that took part in labours PPB got well paid for doing it otherwise they should be ashamed especially the guy talking about cancer care.
Hogg backtracks and agrees to repay the money for the moat, which he initially denied he claimed for…
222. Presumably a weathercock would know!
215. No, I don’t accept that politicians should drag things down into the gutter. I don’t mind criticising your opponent, but dedicated two minutes to it in a very poor taste PPB just isn’t on, as far as I’m concerned.
Clegg and the ‘Ally of Paedophiles’ - well, he’s a prat too, then.
206.Malcolm, didn’t Tavish get a name check about this yesterday, or did I mishear?.
And remember which party of MSP’s took the most flak over the original scandal up here too.
I have just come downstairs to see the Sky News ticker and found myself chantng ‘Hogg-y, Hogg-y!’ I think I am starting to lose it a bit.
216 but its released on a day one Labour MP and two Labour Lords are suspended for greed & corruption, with Gordon Brown flailing. Not sure it’s targeted at Cameron’s weaknesses.
If it works then the McBridisation of Labour politics is complete.
I can’t help thinking that sleaze in the end will hurt the government more, the ’system’ which everyone is blaming has been administered for a decade by Labour. If the system was wrong why didn’t they change it? It’s not as though they were shy in making other systematic changes to the way parliament works eg hours. The Commons Fee Office is looking more like the FSA everyday.
211.Is it worse that Clegg’s effort to smear the Tories in his Euro election launch. Didn’t either party learn any lessons from the Scottish elections?
I would laugh my head off if this chap was in the frame for expenses!!!
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/quentin_davies/grantham_and_stamford#expenses
227 ‘twelve’.My point is that the likes of you, so verbose and so on your high horse about Labour are totally ignorant……ignorant about the more damaging charges levelled at your Party by Clegg.
214 - I just loathe proportional systems of voting it ossifies the political class. Nothing gets done, becuase the minute anyone moves away from the shabby agreed consensus they lose. It might work in third rate powers with no world stage presence but it would be a calamity here.
223 Balls always hang!
Not if you cut them off. Just ask my brothers Labrador. Mind you he reckons Balls is a twat too. Starts making whining noises everytime he comes on telly.
225 No Rod, he said that he sent an annual list of his total expenses for running the property to show taht it far exceeded the maximum allowable claim - the moat was part of that list.
He is reapying on the basis that the letter in which the moat clearance is contained does not specifically state the moat should be discounted for claiming purposes (in much the same way it doesn’t say his council tax or whatever should specifically be discounted)
Hogg’s problem is his wealth - he doesn;t need the allowance but claims it (fair enough as its not means tested) and given that he far exceeds the maximum allowable he thought the easiest was just to ‘data dump’ the whole running cost on the fees office so they would say ‘fair enough’ and pay him the maximum.
I feel a bit sorry for him really, he is no worse than anyone else and he is copping it for being personally wealthy (imho)
Re. PR: If party A get, say, 34% of the popular vote and party B get, say, 28% of the vote, a coalition between A + B would represent 62% of the electorate, no?
ZanuLab “won” the last election (2005) on only 36% of the popular vote.
Was McBride behind this Labour PPB now showing on ITV1? It is in line with his attack dog activities and presumably was commissioned when he was in charge of strategy for Brown?
The only thing missing from the PPB are the demon eyes.
216 - “He says go for their best asset and turn it into a negative which is what it tries to do.”
I don’t think it does. It tries to contaminate Cameron by association rather than targeting him specifically.
To be successful the Rove way you actually have to take on the central asset, not just sling enough mud and hope some sticks.
237 - In which case he claimed for a part of the moat to be cleared.
What percentage of moat was it?
233 - Any particular reason why you think he might be? I haven’t heard him mentioned at all in this respect.
216. The problem is Gordon Brown stands up and portrays himself as ally of the poor and needy, and the only person who can see us through this downturn, meanwhile smearing Cameron…
… when he has presided over a government where the poor have gotten poorer and he abolished the 10p rate! Oh, and he’s saddling us all with debt for decades to come!
… Surely if you’re attacking an opponent for their inability to help the poor you’ve actually… you know… not got to sh*t on them yourself?
At least Karl Rove could go around saying Bush was strong on terror because he blew up/tortured/incarcerated/invaded the country of (delete as applicable) anyone who looked vaguely suspicious… even if we don’t agree with his politics, you could at least see how he could derive some strength from it, within some demographics.
Martin Day@233
Davies is a proper porker joint 1st on the ACA claim league table for the last 4 years.
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/quentin_davies/grantham_and_stamford#expenses
239 - Or, more likely, Brown wanted it like that?
225. RodC. Where was this? I believe you, I just want to know. Please let him be shot.
238 - Nice theory but in practice all the policies that made the parties attractive to those 62% of voters would be the policies that would get junked as anathema to the parties concernced, so they would end up actually representing 0% of voters.
240. New Labour - Old Danger?
248. Can you defend the 2005 election result?
What the hell has Cameron ‘alleged’ policy got to do with Europe?
The PPB says nothing about Lisbon Treaty or Brown only following orders…It was pure unadulterated pig shit.
234. I’m not ignorant, I read about it the other day, when it was made. I didn’t realise I had to inform you every time I had an opinion and when I had it.
238 no, not the case. It would reduce to compromise and therefore represent 0% of the votes cast as the morphed government is neither A nor B, it is bastard child C with added bland.
238.NO if the labour party got 34% and the tories got 28% in what sense would the policies they enact get 62% support? The 2 parties are on OPPOSITE sides! One is in favour of raising taxes, one in favour of lowering taxes, therefore under your calculation whether the government raised or lowered taxes it would have 62% support.
244. Numbertwelve. Gordon Brown friend of the poor? Feck. Doesnt he understand? The poor and needy have worked out that Labour MPs are sleazy scuzzpucks. They need another line rather desperately methinks.
This Labour PBB is hilariously bad.
I mean, really really really really bad.
I had to watch it a few times, before I would believe that this was actually a Labour PBB and not a Guido Fawkes satire.
I mean, really? Let’s leave aside the obvious distortions and lie. Wow is this PBB going to turn off a ton of floating voters.
1) Very depressing and chilling music.
2) Very slow pacing.
3) Weird looking people giving odd testimonials. Very strange pan-in to these people, reminded me of the opening sequence to “Little Britain”
4) Um- isn’t Dave more popular than his party, and a great deal more popular than Labour and Brown. So is attacking him this personally such a smart strategy?
5) Given that Labour because of the McBride scandal has become the “New Nasty Party” is this really the tone they want to set?
6) The old people were the best- Oh, no if Cameron gets in I might lose the 60 pound a year top-up! Ha ha ha ha.
Worst Political Advertisement EVER.
You have to watch it.
I have to agree with Christina and URW on the Clegg issue.
The guy tried to use a Paedophile investigation, cross border and cross continent to smear the Tories.
245 - In fairness, that’s first equal with a large number of others since a lot of MPs claim the maximum on ACA and top it up themselves.
249 - Yes, Labour got more votes in more seats than other parties.
257. And they deserve a 60 seat majority nationally? Come on!
253. I meant if two parties wanted to get together.
242 - you could look at it that way, I don’t really know.
Sunil Prasannan.
What you should do is vote for either a dictatorship or sponsor an unelected dictatorship…that way every subsequent ‘election’ will be defensible.
258. see 253 ;o)
Brown and Balls hidding behind a cohort of school children, trying to evade responsibility. Perhaps Guido ought to remind pupils that they can pull faces or give the great Gordon a pair of bunny ears when he poses for the cameras.
What is Labour for other than creating new excuses for milking the taxpayers?
Anyone seen Straw, Hoon or Darling in public?
260. Who said anything about a dictatorship?
Did anyone hear Truscott’s awful attempt at justifying his behaviour on PM?
The saddest thing about Morley and MacKay is that Truscott and Taylor will not get the degree of public kicking they thoroughly deserve.
In my eyes they are far worse than even the most fraudulent trougher.
204.
Take an election
46 ACB
45 BCA
9 CBA
FPTP would elect A, despite him/her being the Condorcet Loser. AV (STV in one seat) would elect B. Condorcet Winner methods like Black and Copeland would elect C, which I agree is wacky in this instance.
Preventing a Condorcet Loser from winning is a desirable property of an electoral system. Guaranteeing a win by a Condorcet Winner is, imho, not, and seems to be the point you are arguing against.
No system of PR or preferential voting that is likely to be implemented would ensure a Condorcet Winner being elected.
250. Dr S
Labour lie, Labour spin
Labour twist in the wind
Barry Sheerman is an interesting case as well, he was in the papers about renting out a flat yet he has full ACA:
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/barry_sheerman/huddersfield
The leadership speculation about Gordon Brown is now dead for a while.
Even if Labour implode spectacularly he can blame the Labour troughers rather than himself. Likewise, any plot to get rid of him can be dismissed as a few unrepresentative troughers angry that his ‘leadership’ has forced them to repay money. And many of the potential ‘Geoffrey Howe’ figures have been exposed as troughers.
An appalling PPB from Labour. Bringing in Leukemia sufferers and trying to pin it on Cameron is pretty low.
Greg Barker is going to pay CGT.
Big deal.
266 - jsfl - anything to say about Mackay and Kirkbride?
You had plenty yeaterday.
268, Mandelson cannot be removed though, and his past errors of judgement (to be polite) rather eclipse more recent ones.
Balls is the big name that is neither in the clear nor been highlighted as yet. Aside from my own constituency considerations, he’s the man who matters most who has yet to be mentioned (Harman and Johnson seem in the clear and Mandelson’s been referred to).
Nice video of that odious sleazebag Mackay getting mobbed.
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2009/05/disgraced-andrew-mackay-mobbed-by-reporters.html
In 2005 Tony Blair and his Labour Party were elected with a resounding Seat majority by a British electorate voting in the time-honoured way.
If you want to write in your own results after the wishes of the British people have been made known, then go and buy a pair of sandals…grow a beard or alternatively, vote BNP.
270 well until the electorate confirm they will underwrite losses on second home sales then CGT payment is probably the best solution. That or ban second home payments altogether and tack it on to salary where it does not need to be justified. Or have Trade Unions pay for accomodation with their slush funds.
272 - I’m surprised Cameron had him near him.
Pandered to the NF in his past and supported corporal punishment.Dodgy wife.
Have the party leaders yet been definitively cleared? I seem to recall that David Cameron was given a fairly clean bill of health on Monday, but have we necessarily exhausted the claims of Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown? If the Telegraph intends ending on a climax (which I would expect), what more climactic event than to finger one or more party leaders?
URW. Is that the same election where 64% of the electorate rejected NuLab? I don’t think I re-wrote that?!
And why would I vote BNP? I’m not British according to their non-racist (sic.) policies!
276, doubt they’ll be anything about any leader. They attacked Brown’s cleaner, which may be legitimate, and Clegg took money for building garden walls and Cameron got a clean bill of health but nothing major against any of them.
264. Are you sure that Brown is in the clear? Which ever way you look at it the moral authority to tax the rest of us, has been damaged by setting up this system of expenses which normal tax payers cannot use. The worn out excuses about an oversight, I forgot to pay my council tax, the selective amnesia, and other cases of Waldheim’s Syndrome are laughable, exempt so many of these clowns want to get the guy who sold the disc rather than ask can I continue to defraud the electorate? The robbers in Westminster are feathering their nests whilst unemployment shoots up faster than a heroin addict. Brown has no moral fibre left in his body and should step down now, along with all the other grasping loons.
276. Brown has got away with much of his IMO!
279. “The grabbing hands grab all they can/all for themselves after all”
250 dr spyn says:at 6:27 pm “What the hell has Cameron ‘alleged’ policy got to do with Europe?”
Will he eat European babies as well?
277 SP.Like I said; buy a pair of peep-toed sandals and vote for Nick Click.Therein lies your best chance.
Just about to watch the PPB for Labour.
I am unimpressed by those who argue for electoral reform on the basis that Labour got elected on only 36% of the vote. Our electoral system does not value percentages of the vote: it values results in individual constituencies, and the electorate itself knows that. The impact of tactical voting makes it impossible to judge what result we would have received under straight proportional representation. Also, if the electorate regards it as particularly important to thwart Concordet Losers, they can if it is sufficiently organised.
Hogg employed a helper and so did Brown….
Ahhhhhhhh - Labour’s PPB just came on the TV in next door flat. Can’t turn it off. I feel dirty.
Turning my music up very load for the next 5 mins.
284. I would think in many constituencies themselves, the winner got around 36%.
URW - you definitely told me to go vote BNP in your post 273 above!
275. Tim where do you get this crap from?
269. Rubbish that is a brilliant PPB.
I have for some time thought there wasn’t a single good reason to vote for Brown, and it would seem that the Labour Party agrees with me.
178 Icarus - you mean like a fuzzy tree?
288 -Purely factual, look it up.
Everyone knows why Dave couldn’t promote Kirkbride because shes dodgy.
289
Just got in and what comes on the TV? A Labour PPB. Doesn’t mention Gordon once.
Alistair Campbell insinuates on his blog that the reason the Telegraph didn’t expose MacKay is that Kirkbride is an ex-Telegraph journalist.
280 I think Brown leaked the disks, as someone upthread said he currently doesn’t have to worry about leadership questions, also by leaking now he takes the hit in the euros/county elections, does his reshuffle and claims a new chapter and no longer has expenses scandal to worry about.
He gets Martin to create a smokescreen and outrage about the leak and he moves enemy number one from Gordon Brown to any number of other MPs.
289- Do they really think this kind of fear tactics will work?
Have they really nothing more constructive to say? (or even just something remotely related to the Euro/local election)
291. Got a link?
The change of tone in the Labour PPB is interesting, compared to the usual New Labour attempts at portraying a sunshine and flowers multicultural paradise, complete with statistics about kidney machines replacing rockets and guns, and so forth.
In a sense, it plays into the hands of the Conservatives. Doom and gloom about recession is far more likely to remind voters of why the economy is in the pits, as opposed to thinking about Tory cuts. It also seems somewhat detached from reality, I don’t think Labour are mentioned at all. Especially when juxtaposed with the Tory PPB of Cameron out and about talking to people.
“For wider roads,Vote Conservative.” Anyone remember that one frrom ‘83 ?
296 Martin - seen me in Hudds in a silver car recently?
291. tim - you just can’t stop smearing can you? If ‘everyone knows’ and you have facts just tell so us dimwits not in the know have the full picture. Don’t keep smearing.
P.s. You were full of stuff coming out about Hague. Did I miss it?
It is interesting in Labour’s PPB that they seem to have totally gone with the Tim approach to politics. I would not be surprised if they came on here realised that tories despised Tim and thought that will do for our Broadcast. Who knows maybe Tim and Roger made it.
278. Oh yes, lets just gloss over Wisteria Man. None of them came out of it with a healthy glow exactly. I did note that Clegg claimed the full available wack though…doesn’t leave a good impression.
297. It was an amazing advert, just showed some guy in a suit beating a punchbag, then leaving in a limo with ‘tory’ on the numberplates. Inbetween the punches we had some ‘real people’ telling us how nasty David Cameron was and the cuts he’d bring in. It didn’t give anyone a single reason to vote labour, in fact the only reason you knew it was a labour advert was because of the labour logo at the end and the announcer telling you.
I haven’t caught up with all the detail on Mackay yet, but he’s on C4 and sounding a twat. Time to go Mackay.
The idea behind that Labour party political broadcast could form the basis of an effective (if very negative) campaign - or could have done if that type of campaign had been started and consistently stuck to for a while. However, it was not well-executed.
Labour is absolutely right to try to attack David Cameron, but it didn’t work - it was noteworthy that while David Cameron’s name appeared repeatedly, we didn’t see him once and didn’t have a single attributable quote from him. As a result, I suspect many floating voters would have thought that it was a string of smears and it may have lost as many votes as it won.
One more terrible mistake was made. What were they thinking of putting that shaggy hairy ginger on? It looked like the honey monster was taking over. Mr and Mrs Middle England are going to look at him and subconsciously think “Labour is a party for people like him rather than people like me”.
POLITICAL BETTING ODDS NEWS FROM THE VALLEYS [Turnout and the like..]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/betsanpowys/2009/05/all_change_here.html
299. I haven’t been out much as i am recoverying from some minor surgery that did not go according to plan!
297. Indeed. As with most Labour PPBs, it’s likely to backfire…
Let’s be honest though. No PPBs are amazing. They all look like they’ve come out of an amateur film-making class down the local technical college.
You have two sorts of people who appear in PPBs (aside from the politicians) - one whose face is set to miserable (usually with the wooden line, “The evil X Y Z party will steal my pension”… etc) or the one who is bright and beamy and energetic and looks like they’ve just come out of performing arts college and are trying their best to do their ‘hopeful’ look (accompanied by the wooden line “I’m voting for X Y Z party because they’re really in tune with the needs of people like me”… etc).
All this is generally accompanied by a soundtrack that wouldn’t sound out of place in a porno.
297. Labour can’t afford to make a film of Gordon meeting the public, the CGI necessary to stop the film from giving people the willies would cost an astronomical sum.
How about a general election in October? That would allow enough time for MPs to explain themselves to their constituents, then be selected, deselected or whatever, and give parties a longer than usual period to set out their reform proposals plus other policies etc.
The current parliament has lost moral authority to legislate, and the government is now discredited. The only way to regain respect, authority etc is to let the voters decide which MPs to retain and which parties they trust. Start afresh with a new parliament as soon as practically possible, which means the autumn.
307 Ah yes, I remember now, the hole in the neck, hope you make a good recovery.
Oh well, I’m off for the time being. I’ll be back after either QT or This Week (depending on how interesting they are!). I guess the PPB will be on again after the News at Ten?
Have a nice evening!
it would also need a new sound track, he wasn’t well received at Wembley, boos from the fans, and sullen silences from troops in the sandpit.
284. it’s a similar argument about the US electoral college - it is not a direct election. But the reasons for that are set in stone in a written constitution, without which the nation would have never even been born.
Here, however, I don’t think anyone seriously claims that voters are not primarily voting in a national election. When the outcome departs seriously from proportionality or produces the wrong national winner, the legitimacy of the system must be called into question.
Dale saying that Porter has said tonight’s Telegraph going to have something as bad as today’s case. He speculates on Purnell, Balls or others..
my hunch is that tory couple tup north might be the ones though.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3618933/brown-resorts-to-bully-tactics.thtml
fraser nelsons take. The advert itself is awful, I worked out what the punchbag meant (the ‘ordinary’ people in the ad) but the guy punching it looked like any politician on any side, no quotes from Cameron, just slagging off and smears. The tim approach basically, one which only works when your not already seen as being nasty and up to your neck in it, which labour are.
303.
How on earth is that going to go down today with all this expenses mess? I take it, that this PPB was one they made earlier before this all blew up in everyone’s faces?
Who is running their media operation right now? Don’t tell me its the same crew who did the SLP campaign back in 2007. Didn’t McBride get himself into bother over that too after he was despatched up there?
Have they learnt nothing after their defeat at the hands of the SNP a using similar tactics?
Interesting, Dale mentions the Mackay resignation, but no comment at all, wonder why.
The resignation of Andrew Mackay has hit the Tories hard. It takes the scandal right into David Cameron’s office, which is bad enough, and helps Labour by shifting the spotlight a touch away from Elliott Morley. Mr Mackay’s friends are staggered by what he has done. Although there is admiration for the decisive way Mr Cameron has responded, there are great worries about the impact of the scandal outside Westminster. We are hearing rumours that activists in some seats have temporarily stopped canvassing because the anger on the doorstep is too strong.
ConservativeHome has just issued some striking polling that gives an idea of the task - and opportunity - facing Mr Cameron:
- 94% say Cameron has performed well during crisis
- 66% say Andrew Mackay should cease to be Tory MP. Just 12% say he should stay.
- 82% agree that all Conservative MPs facing questions over their behaviour should face deselection meetings.
- 65% say “it’s not nearly enough” for MPs to think that repaying inappropriately claimed expenses is “end of the matter”.
That last one is particularly ominous, as it suggests the internal solution proposed by the Tory leader may not go far enough.
Brogan.
300 - Toney Baloney.
This is why Kirkbride could not be promoted.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/6135858.stm
Not a smear, purely factual.
302. The Wisteria was at his second home, nick Clegg charged a phone call to some south american country which i think is small beer they both come out of it alright. If anything i think the Clegg one looks worse as it was nothing to do with parliamentry business or the constitiency home. In terms of ACA - depends on how much Clegg has to on mortgage etc.
291. Well I’ve googled Andrew Mackay National Front and can’t frind anything. Another Tim smear, you’ll get sued one day you know.
O/T Why are we on a 250 post auto-change, rather than one of 400+ posts, it’s slow on here tonight - awaiting the Telegraph’s latest dirt no doubt.
Just had a feeling we might have had a poll this evening. Weren’t there reports of YouGov polling 4 or 5 days ago?
Despite the poor politicians on QT tonight, I think I will watch it for Brogan. Sorry Newsnight.
As a young reporter in the Parliamentary lobby, Kirkbride raised eyebrows and provoked admiring glances among the ranks of MP’s with her penchant for short leather skirts. She later became engaged to Stephen Milligan, the Conservative MP who died accidentally during a bizarre auto-erotic asphyxiation incident in 1994. However, there were suggestions that the couple had split up just before his death
Hmmm short leather skirts…..engaged to a guy who was into bizarre behaviour…..poor girl must pop around and comfort her.
319 - You need to look at the NF position on the Race Relations Act and dependent immigrants, and Andrew Mackay positions on the same in the Birmingham Stechford by election, where his career began.
315. Go to the coffeehouse link I put up, Fraser Nelson’s placed a youtube link there, the entire advert. Watch it, they’ve even set up a website! cameronsconservatives.co.uk
321. Bit early to make that call Wibbler. Who knows what might hit the fan when the DT starts posting tonight.
318 - One of the little-noted tragedies in this whole expenses saga is that it was Nick Clegg rather than David Cameron who had billed for a telephone call to Colombia. Just imagine the transports of ecstasy one of our number would have had if it had been the Leader of the Opposition.
This site does seems to be over-populated by optimistic Tories. I, as a LD, would say that the Tories have come off marginally worse than Labour, and the LDs certainly better.
Of course, this is just how parties have come across - not who is righter and who is wronger.
Amazing what smears timnulabour dregs up. Amazing in that just like NickThick Brown he has not got a clue what Labour MPs are up to. “A scandal, not interested until it is print”.
#
#
#
Alex Hamilton [on Sky]: purpose…?
Tw@t! Is he really Jack W….?
317. tim - thanks for the article. Not something I was aware of, but why not just post that as your point? Otherwise it is innuendo and smear.
317.Tim
So what? It’s three years old!!!
I know Labour are wanting to ban all civil liberties (Freedom of association) etc but that is a rubbish reason and hardly a smoken gun!
324, renamed Red Rag, I wonder?
Tim ask yourself why Brown cannot lower himself to meet normal, working people? The old chestnut about the MEF. When is Brown going to face real people instead of hand picked audiences. Perhaps he is afraid that school children will give him bunny ears.
Do you feel pleased that Hoon, Brown, Straw and Darling have such odd financial arrangements on flats or second homes? How can any MP face voters if they avoid the taxes the rest of us have to pay? Labour have damaged British politics and lack the moral authority to tax us.
305. My favourite bit of the PPB was the student whose delivery was as wooden as a tree saying “David Cameron will cut all these police officers! How CAN we AFFORD to take this risk?”
Well, how can we afford to take the risk of ballooning national debt? Oh, sorry, it’s because we can’t.
330 - Otherwise I’d just be posting links.
327, I agree the Tories will take the bigger polling hit.
321 Me too. Newsnight has been weird for the last 2-3 nights featuring asylum groups performing old Eurovision hits. Don’t we have BBC 3 for this kind of rubbish. Embarrassing to watch the sickly grin on Paxo’s face trying to pretend he was enjoying it.
331 - I didn’t say it was a smoking gun.
It is however the reason Cameron could not promote Kirkbride.
the key tt the whole Mackay story is that everyone presumed he had a house in his constituency, otherwise their ACA claims would have stood out like a sore thumb.
When his local paper looked into it Mackay claimed his address was secret for Security Reasons.(his previous role in NI)
336 - for another reason, the Tories at 40% have further to fall than Labour at 28%.
323. Ok this is what you are smearing with then taken from the New Statesman
‘Freedom, to MacKay, embraces abortion on demand and repeal of the race relations laws. “People should have the freedom to decide who they want to mix with. Racial intolerance is created when you tell them whom they ought to sell their houses to. I have close contacts with immigrants in Birmingham (the Asians are natural Tories) and they don’t want the race relation laws either.’
SBS - I think the danger is that the polls could be anywhere right now. If they show bad for Labour they will be ignored. If they show bad for Conservatives (more likely as Labour already at very low levels) then Robinson and co will be all over them claiming another Brown bounce.
339. I think there’ll be a rough switch of around 2-4 points Tory to Lib Dem/Others. Maybe a 1 or 2 point Lab drop, but doubt it’ll be much because of their bad state as it is.
O/T
Doom, gloom and television.
Found this spoof beeb webpage entertaining
http://www.sodall.co.uk/BBC/parody/index.htm
337. Yes what the hell is that all about? Paxman must be seething
327. I don’t think you are correct there.
The number of cabinet Ministers, ministers and now the Labour MP plus the two peers look very dodgy indeed.
You might focus on the Tories and you would not be the only one on here but from what i have seen on the TV even with Mckay today, Labour seem to be taking the main hit.
In terms of LD’s they have had least hit! Despite some outragious allegations on Rennard who is after all a Peer and paid LD party employee and key strategist! It would suit the LD’s for the Tories to be worse effected - I think this will have little impact in Tory/LD marginals come the next election unless a really sleazy MP stands for either party!
340 - Hadn’t seen that.
The Stechford by election was pretty well known amongst ant fascist campaigns, and Mackay cosied up to the NF on stopping dependents rights to come into the country.
Its a long time ago.
But he’s always been a shit, thats why I was surprised at his role as Camerons “Mine sweeper”
338. tim “it is the reason…”
It may be a plausible potential reason, but unless you have signed testimony from David Cameron confirming your
theorysmear, I suggest you refrain from once again opening OGH up to the risk of action. Twat.I feel we can ignore the Euro and local results next month. They will give real potential for protest. But the GE? A year away?
348, in terms of predicting the GE, yes they can be ignored to an extent, but they’ll prove very useful in seeing what people are thinking.
339 - The way I shall be measuring it is by reference to pro rata falls. I’m expecting the Tories to take a relatively bigger hit in the short term.
The big question is whether the Lib Dems can profit and if so by how much. They should, and they should be disappointed if in the next polls they are the wrong side of 20%.
347 - You sound like Stewart Jackson MP.
And that is never a good thing.
347 Scott P
Don’t forget that tim has an excellent contact high up in the Conservative Party - who got him to bet that Michael Gove would be Shadow Chancellor by Easter.
It seems from that PPB that labour aren’t yet taking Alan Johnsons advice about how to deal with Cameron.
Tim’s on form tonight I see…
C4: LibDem woman councillor on canvassing in the new environment:
“I’ve had doors slammed in my faces.”
!!!!
344 I came to the conclusion that it was a cynical attempt by Pravda to get us to believe that the carefully picked asylum seekers were really just like us and that we should embrace them.
350 - “They should, and they should be disappointed if in the next polls they are the wrong side of 20%.”
Yes.
Don’t know if someone posted:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/benedict_brogan/blog/2009/05/14/mps_expenses_tories_feel_the_heat
324.Just watched the Labour PPB, as someone of us warned a long time ago, Brown would run a nasty and negative campaign. Its what his cronies did up in Scotland in 2007. After the McBride scandal, and now with what’s going on with expenses in Westminster, this could be a massive own goal.
Who did this advert for them?
And did the whole Cabinet see it before hand, and give it their approval?
341. Your just trying to spin that!
Surely the reason Kirkbride’s career stalled was because of her mistaken stance on MMR. It was surely a more expensive and damaging error of judgement than even that of her husbands property arrangement.
I think it’s time to stop this pillorying of MP’s. This humiliation on top of humiliation has now gone too far. It’s like a media Star Chamber. One of them will end up hanging themselves.
352 - Oy less of that.
I had a long odds bet.
I’m right on Mackay and Kirkbride though don’t you think Richard.
And if he used Northern Ireland to cover up the fact that he hadn’t got a house in his constituency then thats amazing.
317 tim, what exactly is the problem with the Midlands Industrial Council?
Chris Huhne car crash on channel 4 shouting at the public!
Sorry if this is a repeat;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5321026/MPs-expenses-Claims-would-shame-dictator-police-tell-Jacqui-Smith.html
Great pic of Jacqui too!
361. Why don’t they resign?
C4 Chris Huhne: I bought the trouser press because I have to go to party functions and look smart.
Laughed down by the audience…oh dear!
Chris Huhne getting hammered on C4 news.
327
‘This site does seems to be over-populated by optimistic Tories. I, as a LD, would say that the Tories have come off marginally worse than Labour, and the LDs certainly better.’
Is this just based on the commons or the Lords as well?
One of the largest scams so far has been Lord Rennard’s second home claims of £ 41,678 which dwarfs Morley’s £ 16,000.
361 Roger, Hear Hear.
362 The odds weren’t long enough, tim!
Mackay is a disgrace, that is clear - another to add to the long cross-party list.
347 The words “Tim and “Twat” are synonymous
361 - Her stance on MMR, although in itself in my opinion marking her out as unfit for Parliament, is irrelevant to Cameron.
He put the whack job Maria Hutchings on the A List when she made it into the media precisely because of her stance on MMR.
He keeps Liam Fox in the cabinet, despite his pandering to the MMR conspiracists.
Cameron could not promote Kirkbride because of the dodgy financial links I posted up thread.
372 ‘Bad tim’ is out and about this evening. I suspect alcohol has an influence.
Chris Huhne also claimed Cameron and osborne were “Richer” than him!
Is that true? I thought Huhne built up a broker company or something like that in the city and made a lot of cash. Huhne also made a mistake by trying to make it party political as what is to stop his tory opponent contacting every Eastleigh voter with information like this:
http://tinyurl.com/ok8hvc
373 ‘Cameon could not promote Kirkbride because of the dodgy financial links I posted up thread.’
tim, what dodgy financial links? Why don’t you just spell it out, rather than give a link to a BBC webpage.
It will be interesting to see if Chris Huhne is damaged in Eastleigh by this. His overclaiming was pretty trivial but he seems to have made himself a poster child for the arrogance of MPs. Ridicule may be nothing for Adam Ant to be scared of, but it’s lethal for politicians.
367. That’s up there with “Let them eat cake!!!”
373 I suspect that “whack job” Maria Hutchings - who was on 5Live this morning sounding vey down to earth and accesible - will do better than expected against the millionaire multiple-property owning trouser-presser Chris Huhne.
361. The humiliation hasn’t even begun. Or so I hope.
As far as I can see, parliament is staffed by liars and thieves, in the main. The Labour party, moreover, is comprised essentially of tra1tors, judging by their behaviour on the EU Constitution.
And none of them has the honour to top themselves, so I shouldn’t worry about that.
More humiliation please. And then prosecutions. And an election.
373 But Brown can keep Straw in the Cabinet when he has claimed double the actual Council Tax for 4 years?
Haven’t heard your views on William Hague for a day or two. Remind me what they were.
374 There is only Bad Tim isn’t there.
Huhne and Hoey - the Speaker should go.
Chris Huhne TOOK the BISCUIT in that CH4 Interview!
That was bad!
373. Erm, no, it said she has links with the MIC, although not a transparent organisation, hasn’t been called dodgy at any point. It hasn’t done anything illegal as far as I know.
382 He was alright this morning.
377 - I hardly think the trousers press will be on the front of Tory leaflets come GE time. It would be petty. Vote Tory for fewer bedroom appliances… no…
385 Didn’t you get the memo? The MIC is the Devil’s Lair itself….
A trouser press might be one of the more unusual ways to lose a marginal seat. A tiny abuse compared to that perpitrated by Alistair Darling & chums.
385 & 373 I’d suggest tim’s post leaves OGH open to an action for defamation.
Tory MP Greg Barker agrees to pay CGT on the sale of two homes…
TWO CHEERS FOR TIM EVENING **** TWO CHEERS FOR TIM EVENING
As of 8.00pm this evening PB is dedicated to “Two Cheers For Tim”. This is in recognition of “Services to PB in the Face of Enemy Fire”
387 - There are one or two rather choice quotes that he’s come out with. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they feature on Tory election literature.
“This site does seems to be over-populated by optimistic Tories. I, as a LD, would say that the Tories have come off marginally worse than Labour, and the LDs certainly better.”
That’s what you want to believe.
How well do you think the LibDems are looking in Cornwall, Hampshire and rural Wales?
“Another Tim smear, you’ll get sued one day you know.” Why would anyone sue somebody who is blatantly obviously unemployed. He has no assets so is of no consequence as far as suing is concerned.
387. The Damage has been done now!
The best approach is to do it with Humour! Like the £85 framed picture on my blog of Huhne reading the FT! 
I have no doubt the LD’s will be sending all sorts of leaflets around various seats! Some Tory/Some labour!
I bet Stephen Fry is feeling a bit of a berk today. “Leave our poor MPs alone, it’s so bourgeois to worry about expenses”.
What about theft and fraud, Stephen?
Not his best moment.
“One of them will end up hanging themselves.”
You say that as if it were a bad thing.
400. Mr Fry went to jail when he was younger for Fraud!
It was with a credit card IIRC!
375 Actually that reminds me of the best part of pmqs on wednesday, when obviously really angry(more angry than i have ever heard them before) Labour mps were screaming “you are a millionaire” at Cameron. He had the audacity to force Brown to potentially damage their income, superb!!! it is that bunch of Rubbish on the Labour benches that have put the rest of us in hock for the next 30 years by supporting Gordon “The economic Genius” Brown. If every single current Labour MP ends up destitute then it would be a tiny bit of justice. Of course it won’t happen most of them will retire on outrageously good pensions after they are booted out next year.
378. Huhne is making this very party political. Not sure the claim that Cameron and Osborne have more money than him is very clever (They may have family wealth but no one knows their personal wealth). Shame he’s gone down this road, setting himself up for a fall with it.
392. Surely the damaging thing about the trouser press is that, like Hogg’s moat and Spicer’s helipad, it makes Huhne look out of touch?
‘Whackjob’ was excellent this morning on R5 I thought.
.
.
If there are dodgy expense revelations this evening leading to calls for Ed Balls sacking, can we please show a little decorum and not dub it Scrotumgate?
401 Naughty. But in case it should help any cash-strapped MP’s:
http://www.cheap-rope.co.uk/?gclid=COOlkOi9vJoCFQu_kgoda17Odg
407 Castrator-gate?
376. Why doesnt the government allow GPS to use the three injections, and add a premium to reflect the extra cost. It was the behaviour of the government which concerned most people, it responded as if it had something to hide, even if it didnt. The MMR concerns would have been alleviated if the government hadnt gone out of their way to make the process as difficult as possible
(i wrongly suggested in a previous post that the government had gone beyond mischievous in actually buying up stocks of the injections, this was not correct, however the governments reputation is not unstained. They have acted in a pretty dreadful way in all this)
I was shocked and stunned to learn of Huhne’s trouser press. How tacky! He should have hired a cleaning woman to do his ironing.
398 don(the other one) says:
14/5/2009 at 7:49 pm
“Another Tim smear, you’ll get sued one day you know.” Why would anyone sue somebody who is blatantly obviously unemployed. He has no assets so is of no consequence as far as suing is concerned.
They won’t bother. They’ll sue MIKE S. Personally, I quite like his website and would miss it if OGH was forced to take it down. If tim continues to make defamatory comments, that could well happen.
404 Huhne seems almost to take the position of ‘I could make more money elsewhere but out of the goodness of my heart I represent you scummers and scammers’
As for needing to look smart - an iron costs £5 and a board another £5 Huhne, you can pay for it if Norman Baker forgoes one of his lobsters next time parliament isn’t sitting.
So no whispers as to who is up for ritual disembowelling by the DT tonight?
If some honourable MPs ARE - miraculously - thinking of ending it all with some cleansing Divine Wind, I have blogged on the correct method.
http://toffeewomble.blogspot.com/2005/07/suicide-for-proper-guys.html
I can’t believe any one ever buys a trouser press, I thought if you wanted one you nicked it from a hotel.
Gonadgate?
ugh now I have visions of MacKay and Kirkbride doing the nasty and squealing out ‘DOUBLE BUBBLE!!!!!’ at the point of ecstacy.
*shudder*
tim?
Forgetfulness expert Dr Margaret Gerving said: “As a former agriculture minister he may have spent a bit too much time with farmers. They’re always forgetting how rich they are and then claiming thousands of pounds from people much worse off than them.”
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/mp-becomes-first-ever-person-to-forget-he-had-paid-off-his-mortgage-200905141760/
412, Edp, not to worry, he will soon be droning on in a boring argument about MMR with gaz which will see him trapped in a feedback loop of his own inanities.
For those who haven’t yet heard it, you simply must link to Victoria Derbyshire with Andrew Pierce interviewing Lembit Opik, as featured yesterday by Iain Dale. You need to FF >> approx 44 minutes to the start of the interview and then listen to Lembit getting himself into an unholy mess about the £2,500 TV he tried to get the taxpayers to fund for his London address, er, or was that his constituency home? When his claim was rejected, he settled for a £750 model instead - the sheer shamelessness of the man. Towards the end of the interview, he tries to change the subject by offering to write a free article for the Telegraph on the subject of, guess what, MPs’ expenses, but I suspect that by then the Daily Telegraph’s Deputy Editor had him well and truly sussed. I’m so glad he’s not my MP. If I were his opposing Tory PPC I’d be distributing a CD of this interview to each and every one of my would-be constituents.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00kctks/Victoria_Derbyshire_13_05_2009/
Do give it a try - it’s hilarious!
406 - Missed that.
She’s moved on to spreading conspiracy theories about fluoride now.
410 - Gaz.
Single injections give less protection, are less researched.
Go to a private clinic if you want them, and put your child and mine at extra risk.
294 If Brown leaked the discs, that was brilliantly clever of him. Surely that fact alone proves that it can’t have happened.
So in the last year we’ve seen the global capitalist system come within hours of total collapse and now we’re seeing the British political system facing probably the biggest crisis in it’s history. This period is going to be one of the most studied by future historians and we’ll have seen it happen ourselves!
Isn’t there a Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times?”
419 don(the other one), you’re spot on. See 421!
421, hate to say it, but I told you so.
Nasty Lab spinner “Tim” has an evil twin brother.
424/5 - We can’t let Gaz the ill informed conspiracy theorist go unchallenged now can we Chuckle Brothers.
And note it wasn’t me who brought up MMR on this thread.
415. SeanT. It is of course, Kaishaku-nin, not nun.
No MP should ever be permitted to commit an honourable seppuku. They should be subject to:
Shichu hikimawashi no ue (Dragged through the streets in disgace)
Uchikubi (Beheading)
Gokumon (Head on a pike at prison gates)
422 I do wonder what the leaker is making of all this? Although, if they have any sense they are sipping champers somewhere hot and wondering how best to hide from a spiteful Government’s team of heavies sent to track them down and spoil their entire day…
Evening all
Moving off expenses for a moment, I was told today that the senior management of a Conservative Home Counties Council had met today to look at options for the next Council.
One of the papers being discussed was a proposal to reduce Council spending by 20% in real terms over the next four years. The basis for this was a Conservative Party policy document based on the experience of the Canadian Government of Stephen Harper.
I suspect the Osborne plan will be to seek an overall reduction in public expenditure of 20% in real terms during the first term of a Conservative administration but with some areas (Police, armed forces presumably) more or less sacrosanct, it offers a hint of how severe the spending axe is going to be.
421 & 427 Grade A nutcase.
tim, sorry if you have already answered this, if you have I must have missed it. What day do you sign on?
429, I suspect he or she won’t be going for any solitary walks into woodland.
420. Listened to it last night - he is simply terrible. Is he really an MP or is it a long running April fool? Pierce so has his measure and in the end Lembit is begging to make up and be friends again and can he right about ‘his’ idea for sorting out expenses. I felt pity for him by the end, in the same sort of sense as I do for Brown & Smith. You don’t need Spitting Image, they do it themselves!
O/T but I’d rather like people to now use the FOI and request what each MP’s pension benefits would be worth if they were all voted out at the next election. Also what %age of the 1,750,000 lifetime allowance this was. If you are a married couple in the Commons, 2 to 3 terms for each of you and you are made for life.
429: He is probably thinking he didn’t ask for enough money.
428 Whilst the idea of being beheaded by a nun adds a certain something…you are probably right with Shichu hikimawashi no ue ->
Uchikubi -> Gokumon
429 Anyone seen McBride recently?
414.
Dunno.
But I am surprised that the name ‘Geoffrey Robinson’ is conspicuous by its absence.
Once upon a time peers of the realm were permitted a silken rope rather than hemp for the noose. I favour hanging for the troughing Labour lords and the “cash for laws” Labour lords. With a normal rope - wouldnt want to give in to class distinctions.
Anecdote alert: lunch with extended family, and three year old daughter, at Pizza Express Thayer Street.
Voters ranged from soft left middle class New Labour to hardbitten working class Tory to floating pensioner with a pacemaker.
Politics dominated chat for a good 20 minutes - something unheard of, and unprompted by me. The tone was amused yet vicious contempt, all centred about Expensesgate. Most of it was aimed squarely at Labour and the government; but the table was generally Tory, or disenchanted Labour, so it wasn’t that representative.
However I’m guessing that floaters have deserted Labour for at least two elections. I also think all three parties will be hit by this generalised contempt.
269. Browns leadership troubles over…
Exactly, I still suspect the Telegraph expose was a Brown/McBride leak to save Browns skin. Telegraph and Andrew Porter are extremely close to Brown Central
409 What about the nice sounding but horrific in practice Orchidectomy-Gate
434. Can he write (not can he right) doh.
440 : I think the key question in the polls will be the ones about leadership. If Cameron’s numbers are good he could pull the tories tru.
346 - great find and have posted with credit link.
MPs’ expenses: Gordon Brown’s politics of fear film looks silly, not scary
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2009/05/14/mps_expenses_gordon_browns_politics_of_fear_film_looks_silly_not_scary
On C4 news, Matthew Taylor was still trotting out this “no one goes into politics for the money” BOLLOCKS this evening.
I’m sorry, Matthew, BUT DO YOU NOT GET IT? We’ve learned that even the most hapless MP who gets kicked out at the end of one term can make £100,000 a year plus endless other perks. An idiot would end up half a million richer. And, remember these people are lying ugly talentless sleazy mediocre thieves, in general. They couldn’t earn half that in any other profession.
Which puts paid to Taylor’s other thesis - “these people could earn more in the City”. As my stepfather said today: No they couldn’t.
There is now an overwhelming case for Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs to mount its own investigation. MPs’ tax affairs, which are handled by the special section of HMRC that also deals with the royal family and various celebrities, are unique. In the Income Tax (Earnings and Pensions) Act 2003, MPs voted themselves a tax exemption available to no other groups: it made their expenses tax-free – but only if incurred “for the purposes of performing parliamentary duties”. Our disclosures over the past week, from moat maintenance to eradicating dry rot, suggest a great many claims do not meet this requirement. HMRC should now subject MPs’ claims to the same rigorous examination that they extend to everyone else’s tax affairs. That would at least start the process of rebuilding public confidence in the House of Commons. The past week has shown that MPs are not only hopelessly out of touch, but also seem to regard themselves as above the law. They are not.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/5325927/MPs-expenses-the-taxman-should-go-through-the-claims.html
447 - Most of “these people” couldn’t earn money w*nking for coins on the Strand.
376 Tim “Cameron could not promote Kirkbride because of the dodgy financial links I posted up thread”.
Wow what a man. I always thought from reading your posts that you were a partisan twat. It turns out you are really important and in the ‘know’.
Telegraph exposing claims from a Minister of State working in one of the highest offices of state.
421. Tim. I see you were trying to taunt me earlier. Well it wont work Mackay has got part of his just desserts. We’ll have to wait and see if he and his good wife get the rest of their just desserts.
The question is now will the Keens and the Balls-Coopers fall on their swords?
And don’t even bother coming back with the Winterton’s because like most others I don’t really care.
What I care about is that we are be run by a corrupt government. Let’s see there is:
Brown
Darling
Miliband
Smith
McNulty
Ussher
Beckett
Alexander
Flint
Hoon
Murphy
Straw
Wright
Watson
Woodward
When are those fat blubbery porkers going to do the right thing huh?
Blears and Hope have at least acknowledge the error of their ways.
Oh and by the way I’d add Davies, Hutton and Purnell to that list as well when people find out how much ACA they take…..
447. I once spoke to a bloke who said that he wanted to become an MEP instead of MP because it had better pay! I thought WTF!
Michael Ancram when i worked at Tory HQ said he went into politics because he believed in public service! Somehow i don’t think he looks to be sitting quite so pretty against that backdrop now!
Sky - Telegraph to publish ‘quesitonable’ expenses of minister in one of highest cabinet offices
450. Could be both. Par for the course with this Government.
“Exactly, I still suspect the Telegraph expose was a Brown/McBride leak to save Browns skin. Telegraph and Andrew Porter are extremely close to Brown Central”
If that was the case then Brown must be a total incompetant to be so badly prepared for the uproar?
Okay, fair point!
430 Reducing Council spending really can’t be so very difficult, there’s just so much waste ingrained into every aspect of the system. Just visit the LB of Wandsworth and they’ll show you how it’s done, not just for a year or two but for more than 20 years and still counting.
Married couples day tomorrow as well.
Stewart Jackson does his first radio interview.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/cambridgeshire/content/articles/2007/05/click_day_radio_feature.shtml
“£3k on a (berber) carpet…Its a one off cost.
My Hi Fi came from an Oxfam shop.”
“People don’t have a right to be vulgar and abusive.”
Ha Ha.
The same Stewart Jackson that used to post on here.
Sky News NOW: more revelations at ministerial level and married couple MPs in the DT tomorrow. Swing to BNP…
woody662 - where are you getting that from ?
I see no ships…
So now that people are losing their jobs will we see a ministerial resignation?
minister in trouble
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5325720/MPs-expenses-Government-minister-in-spotlight.html
its ‘couples day’ aswell
446. OMG that was like a two and a half minute car crash. I cant believe just how mind numbingly awful that is. I am flabbergasted at the dreadful nature of it.
What were they thinking when they put it together? What were the party thinking when they approved it? Do they really think that this will shore up their existing vote or win any new converts?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5325720/MPs-expenses-Government-minister-in-spotlight.html
So who is going to resign tomorrow then? One Government Minister is deep in the do-do.
By the way add Beverly Hughes to the big fat Government porkers list she like Davies likes to come top of the ACA league table.
446 They ran almost exactly same kind of ad before last Scottish elections, claiming every family would be £5k worse off if the SNP won. Of course, even if true, that would now be seen as a good deal compared to Labour’s last budget…
Cammo just now on Cameron Direct:
“As long as I am alive and there is breath in my body, Britain will not be joining the Euro.”
Refreshing to hear such a straight answer from a politician!
i reckon McNulty
Has Mcnumpty been in anything yet?
Where does Mrs Balls work - is it the treasury?
452 - I wasn’t taunting you.
jsfl says:
13/5/2009 at 4:04 pm
68. Tim
As pitiful a try as ever…….
It’s 109 miles between Bromsgrove and Bracknell. That’s a bit different to holding neighbouring constituencies. Granted I’m sure that the Telegraph will make a big deal of it but it is hardly a case that they can be expected to commute between constituencies.
How they arrange their affairs may provide some reason to raise questions but on the face of it, it doesn’t look particularly scandalous.
But an apology would be nice.
Did you for one minute realise that Mackay had covered up the fact that he didn’t have a home in his constituency?
Hands up those, who said they were getting bored by this stuff
Telegraph playing a blinder.
Window at Bromsgrove MP’s Conservative office damaged
5:54pm Thursday 14th May 2009
comment Comments (0) Have your say »
THE window of Bromsgrove MP’s Conservative office was damaged this morning (May 21).
Bromsgrove police were called to reports of a smashed window at Julie Kirkbride’s Conservative office, in Worcester Road, at 7.15am.
The incident happened prior to the resignation of Julie Kirkbride’s husband, Bracknell MP Andrew MacKay, as a senior aide to David Cameron and revelations about the Bromsgrove MP’s expenses, which have made national headlines today.
Beckett or Jowell might be a good bet, perhaps its big Vernon Coaker
The presses will be rolling in the next half hour - stand by!
467, saw a bit of Cameron Direct on Sky. Very good idea, both promotes the leader and keeps him really in touch with the public.
473 - Thats bad.
Particularly bad as she had registered it as her residence.
Unless its Harperson….
465. So tonight they have couples, and this lower ranking minister. Makes you wonder what will be the climax (tomorrow?). A Cabinet Minister doing a Morley? How can they go any further?
The Telegraph has handled this with such panache and sense-of-narrative I would be surprised if they haven’t decided to finish with a bang. Because this is Hollywood scriptwriting lesson number one: make sure you get the ending right, finish with a dramatic flourish.
But who and what might it be?
How they arrange their affairs may provide some reason to raise questions but on the face of it, it doesn’t look particularly scandalous.
As far as I am concerned that covers it. They arranged their affairs in a way that was wrong and have admitted it. Good.
As for apologising to you. What for? That would be like apologising to Brown for seeing him and Labour get dumped out of Government. ROFLMAO. Don’t hold your breath………..
Very unscientific sample:
my dad, mum, nan and grandad were all round earlier. Eventually the topic of mps expenses came up. The consensus, all mps are as bad as each other and all at it.
BUT the really important thing was that they all praised cameron (my dad voted labour 97-05; mum lib dems05) for at least trying to sort it out, and derided brown for doing nothing, then copying, and then announcing an ‘independent committee’ which they interpretated as meaning kicking into the long grass.
This suggests to me this will be an election between brown and cameron, which means cameron will win.
473. Does anyone know of a mindless vandal who goes around wrecking everything he touches?
Re: 457 - I can’t speak for Wandsworth or how they operate. I’m disappointed in your sweeping generalisation which comes right out of the Daily Mail or the Taxpayers’ Alliance.
I won’t argue there is no waste in local Government. I do think there has been an over-layering of senior management in recent times. I’ve cited the example of the Conservative Home Counties Authority where, in one Department, the number of staff earning more than £60k has been doubled while a number of lower-paid staff have been sacked.
That said, the provision of residential and hospice care for adults and children is an ongoing and growing requirement as is the continued funding of schools. One thing the recession has caused is a new demand for school places as middle-class parents have been forced to turn away from private schools and their fees to the State sector.
465. If its a minister singular, sounds like it might be a blairite who was being tipped to go against Brown… mentioned by Dale earlier…
that will help the conspiracy theorists especially if no ed/yvette too.
476.
And he’s been doing it for over a year now, every week.
Unlike Copy-Cat Clegg, who has ripped off Cameron Direct completely and is doing it in the short term to look good for June.
The trouble with the way The Telegraph is reporting the story is people have probably forgotten who they wrote about on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.
It’s all gone very quiet today as regards the Speaker staying or going.
485, aye I know he’s been doing it for ages.
I’d love to see Brown Direct. (Sounds like a faecal delivery company).
465. The photos of Kirkbride and Mackay in that article are seriously unflattering, then again, it’s probably the least of what they deserve!!
How about Caroline Flint.It would make for good tabloid pictures or has she been exposed already?
In one of the highest offices of state. Not Balls then?
472. The political classes moaning about the Telegraph are just idiots. The paper has brought this off with brilliant skill; it’s a lot more than just trawling receipts and publishing them.
They will reap every award going. And deservedly so. And they will have earned out whatever they spent on the CD, ten times over. The paper has gained a new respect and importance; you could tell that in the way Cameron was very careful with Porter at his presser.
The final mark of approbation is that every other editor in Fleet Street will be emerald with envy.
446- Funny that in the end they give a link to cameronsconservatives.co.uk, but if you go to cameronsconservative.co.uk you get a totally different thing!
491, depends what ‘highest’ means.
Brown, Straw, Milipede (has he been mentioned yet?), Smith or Darling are the big ones.
Then you’ve got the likes of Purnell, Balls etc.
491 Highest offices of state?
Couldn’t be anything new on Jacqui, surely.
Darling?
488.
He was trying it earlier at the Labour June election launch.
He was trying to do a ‘walkabout’ on stage, like Cammo at the Tory conference in 2007.
The only problem with Brown is he seemingly can’t talk and walk at the same time, and turns mechanically every five seconds (maybe directed to by the auto-cue?), so that in the end everone watching must get entirely distracted from what he is saying and begins to pity him instead.
486 They may have nationally - in constituencies though? Mr Darling’s housing shuffle will be remembered in Edinburgh, Marquess of Lothian will be loathed in Devizes by many.
and next election the opposition in each seat will remind the voters.
489 Great pics in the Daily Mail though of the fragrant Kirkbride in her wedding gear.
491. Not necessarily.
Personally I just want the Robinsons to be utterly humiliated! Anyone else is unimportant to me!!
Cameron Direct (Not Via Bracknell)
First
496, wasn’t the Brown audience hand picked?
“Mister Brown, I want to know how you’re so super, and can you tell us whether Mister Cameron is as awful and dangerous as he sounds to me?”
Hoon has got off lightly… so far.
483. It would be unfair to single out local government within the public sector, but there are major inefficiencies there. Too often it has played the role of employer of last resort, for example.
I’m pretty sure you could lose 20% of the payroll at my local CC over 3-4 years and no-one would really notice. I don’t think it’s unusual.
500.
I thnk Cammo has already done there.
501 Damn - I was expecting an auto page change!
Perhaps it is the chief secretary to the treasury, that would tie in with couples night
502.
I’m sure it was a really upbeat, positive event, just like Labour’s election video….
491 ‘In one of the highest offices of state’
What are they -
PM
Chancellor
Chief Secretary to the Treasury?
Home Sec
Justice
Foreign Sec
Defence
Lord Chancellor?
It can’t be the Chief Secretary, the Telegraph says it’s Minister of State level.
Well were off
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5325720/MPs-expenses-Government-minister-in-spotlight.html
501-PfP-Oh no! I was planning to do this(first!), but now you already did it!
If Stephen Pound was discovered to be in trouble do you think Gordon would do the rounds of the news studios, late at night defending him ?
“a minister working in one of the highest offices of state” to me means not someone who is a Secretary of State but rather one of the more junior ministers in the Home Office, the Treasury or the Foreign Office. You might just stretch it to Chief Secretary to the Treasury, but I would use different language to describe that role.
Quote from Stewart Jacksons radio interview on his expense claims.
“If you want me to sleep on the floor like a Japanese person in a hair shirt.”
What a class act our Stewart is.
Sadly he wasn’t asked about the £1300 refurbishment of his wooden block.
509. Yep, I’m confused. I’m sure I read somewhere that it was Minister of State - and that means NOT Cabinet Minister, doesn’t it?
But that said, I can’t find the Telegraph quote now.
I suppose we shall know soon enough. Tastic! I’m loving this. Wheel on the next tumbril. Ooh look, it’s the Duc d’Orleans.
*knits*
509 Sorry, my mistake, it could be Cabinet level, the DT doesn’t specify, and Sky say “a Government minister working in ‘one of the highest offices of state’”
Edit test: please ignore
The quote is a minister working in one of the highest offices of state
Crikey i reckon the guilty minister must be tearing their hair out at the moment!
Can’t be Cabinet, or they would say so.
518. But I deffo read Minister of State somewhere. Maybe it was here!
oooh, exciting..
*still knitting*
518 This is a bit odd. I can edit my posts, but only if I do it immediately. So I test-edited 518 at about 4:30 and was able to do it. But I couldn’t edit 509 at about 2:30. So for some reason I’m getting less than the 5 minutes to edit my posts.
513 ‘but rather one of the more junior ministers in the Home Office, the Treasury or the Foreign Office.’
That could be McNulty, Cooper, Hoon, Purnell, Byrne, Balls or Hutton. Has Wee Dougie Alexander been mentioned in despatches? Or Flint?
Clare Short made excessive mortgage claim
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5325042/Clare-Short-makes-excessive-claim-for-mortgage-payment-MPs-expenses.html
516, why not? I slept on a reed mat when I was in the Far East, and let me tell you, it was f*cking uncomfortable.
520, and those not named. It’s like an evil version of the original Lottery adverts:
“It could be YOU….”
522 SSccchhhhhlllluuuummmmmmppppphhhhhhhhh.
Thud.
*Hurrah!*
HAHAHHAAHHA Clare Short caught with her trotters in the trough!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5325042/Clare-Short-makes-excessive-claim-for-mortgage-payment-MPs-expenses.html
That sounds like a No.2 in the Foreign or Home Office or the Treasury, otherwise why make such a deal of it?
love it - Clare Short with her trotters in the trough…. (see DT website for details, I linked it but post disappeared)
DT offering Clare Short as a taster.
We haven’t had Jacqui Smith yet.
527, who’re the Home Office and Foreign number 2s? McNulty perhaps, but no idea about the FO.
524. Flint has been mentioned!
I have started Photoshoping her head onto a woman doing nude poses!
521 Non Cabinet are Nick Brown, Beckett, McNulty, Malloch Brown & Drayson. Then Jowell,Flint,Hughes and Baroness Scotland.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_Kingdom
505 - and is that so wrong? When many people do not have a hope of being employed in the private sector, is it so wrong that those who want to work and will work hard within their limitations can find a home within the public sector? The lazy and workshy need not be tolerated, but maximum efficiency isn’t everything.
Unless you advocate a fair proportion of the population not being required to or seek work (and be funded accordingly), ultimately the only solution is some degree of “state jobs” to be provided.
I have a sudden desire to tup Kirsty Allsop, rather violently and da dietro, over her new mosaic garden table.
Who is No2 at the foreign office?
532, is that for your blog or personal usage?
We know from Maples that the DT phone up their targets before publication. What a position to be in! Well deserved, of course.
It’s the Thursday night PB sleaze thread
Could this include people like Timms or Eagle? If so, the ‘universe’ is pretty wide for who could be in the frame.
(Just got in. Forgive me if this has been mentioned already.)
I think that the local implications of the McKay affair need further investigation. If I remember correctly, Marcus Wood (Conservative, Torbay) was here last Monday with some heartfelt memories of his time on the Executive of the Windsor Conservative Association. He was there when their MP (Michael Trend?) was found to have been claiming housing allowance for a non-existant home. The local Grandees - Marcus included - made him resign, forthwith, as soon as the details became known. The Association was outraged, at the breach of trust and the lack of judgement their MP had displayed, and showed him no mercy.
Bracknell is next door. Will we see the tumbrils rolling through Berkshire once again?
Maybe its Alan Johnson - now that would be good.
522 Now I know what the T stands for.
Sean Tricoteuse, sex memoirist, airport blockbuster hack and international whoremonger extraordinaire.
I have a confession to make: I started on Iain Bank’s Matter before your book. Well I thought it would last longer. I am going to be at an airport tomorrow but my reading matter is Castle & Hook’s Austerlitz 1805: The fate of empires and Rail’s Good Beer Guide Prague & the Czech Republic. Not hard to guess where I’m going!
It’s presumably7 MccNulty, since he hasn’t been done yet.
537.
524 “513 ‘but rather one of the more junior ministers in the Home Office, the Treasury or the Foreign Office.’
That could be McNulty, Cooper, Hoon, Purnell, Byrne, Balls or Hutton. Has Wee Dougie Alexander been mentioned in despatches? Or Flint?”
None of those people are junior ministers in either the Home Office, the Treasury or the Foreign Office (except Flint).
535 SeanT, maybe MartinD could knock up some composites of Kirsty for you, in various poses, costumes, and environments? Milk maid at Zoo, dressed up as Mr Speaker on the Woolsack, that kind of thing.
538 - Maples seems rather hard done by. Had he switched his home he’d have been accused of flipping, do what he reasonably did and he gets both barrels anyway.
546 Damn. Don’t McNulty and Cooper count?
502 Morris Dancer - what struck me watching Gordon Brown was again his lack of emotional understanding.
We all heard that Cameron was very angry when the Tory porkers stories started to come out, his speech to press, the first short “I will act” interview then longer one had body language, tone and delivery that conveyed that he indeed was angry. He didn’t say “I’m angry” though, he said “I’m sorry”, the content was I’m sorry, we have disappointed, each MP will have to examine his actions, make his/her excuses, I will act, we will change.
With Gordon Brown though we have a man who has been reported to throw things in petulant anger so we know he has a temper. However in delivery his body language is irritation spliced with odd smiles, tone is devoid of real emotion. He says “I’m angry at, disappointed with, damage to, all should apologise ”
He’s been angry at a lot of stuff “I’m angry that Sir Fred…I’m angry that the Banks…I’m angry that Mr McBride etc.” but public are angry, they don’t need a “I’ll join your anger” soundbite they want apologies, action and recognition there is a just cause for their anger.
549. McNulty is at DWP, and I don’t think Chief Secretary to the Treasury counts as a junior ministerial post, as it is a Cabinet position.
Surely not Clare Short - she’s a woman of principle isn’t she?
Perhaps it will be a piece exonerating the Speaker.
When do we find out.
Shahid Malik now on Telegraph front page
You can get 1/7 betting that the Greens won’t get 10 seats.
Where else can you get 14% interest for tying your money up for three weeks?