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Is the “following the rules” defence really valid?

May 9th, 2009

1971 Guidelines:

The Additional Costs Allowance reimburses “for expenses wholly, exclusively and necessarily incurred when staying overnight away from their main UK residence…for the purposes of performing Parliamentary duties. This excludes expenses that have been incurred for purely personal or political purposes.”

The Green Book 2009:

Members are cautioned against instances “where they may appear to be vulnerable to criticism or accusations of impropriety.” It also reminds MPs that their conduct should be placed concepts of “selflessness, integrity, objectivity, accountability, openness, honesty, leadership.”

I am grateful to Ben Brogan’s “expenses crib sheet” for digging out the relevant information into what exactly the rules are.

For on reading them and looking at the reports in the Telegraph over the past two days it’s hard to reconcile all the “I was following the rules” defences against the wording of the regulations themselves.

One assumes that when they submitted their expense claims the individual MPs had to sign something to state that their claims for reimbursement were in line with what’s laid down. Were the claims in every case “…exclusively and necessarily incurred when staying overnight away from their main UK residence…for the purposes of performing Parliamentary duties.”? That surely is the test.

Mike Smithson



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498 comments to “Is the “following the rules” defence really valid?”

  1. First?


  2. damn! :-)


  3. Mike, the rules we need to look at are those for the relevant period. So back to 2005ish. From memory the rules were tightened more recently.


  4. In a court of law maybe, but thanks to Ms Harman we now have the court of public opinion where legal principles don’t matter.

    Don’t you just love it when hypocrites get hoisted on their own petard??!!


  5. 5th


  6. re 3. The 1971 guidelines seem clear enough.


  7. A Note On Constituency Betting.

    PBers will recall that in the 05 election there was comparatively little constituency betting and much of it appeared only during the campaign itself and few bookmakers had extensive books.

    Fortunately we are already up and running and there are several enticing opportunities already chalked up that allow for excellent hedging or full term election day winnings !!

    Remember punt with your head and NOT with your rant alert party political heart in full flow !! :-)


  8. Result…

    Anyway, back to the subject. I’ve been glancing through threads recently but none of this is a surprise. I stated some time ago that the political system was corrupt and now the press have finally caught up.

    What is astonishing is that there are those who cannot see the problem.

    If I, with the collusion of my employer, defrauded my customers like this I would be looking at a sigificant jail term. The chance was there to lance the boil with cash for honours but it’s just grown and become even more rancid with their (as yet) getting away with it.

    Why would someone not see that? Because they think that they are separate from society and that rules apply differently to people like them.

    No more.


  9. ‘Following the rules’ is just spin.


  10. Ignorance of the Law is no defence. At the very least one would expect the parliamentary claims office to be familiar with the rules and cogent with their interpretation. Another department were heads must roll, if only to break this cycle of institutionalised myopia.


  11. What’s right is what’s right.

    They created rules that allowed them to thieve off the rest of us and then use the rules they created as their defense.

    If I could pass a law saying it wasn’t against the rules for me to burgle their houses I’d like to see their argument then.


  12. Listening to Michael White on Sky - what a moron (Rentoul’s not much better)!

    On topic:

    They can make all the excuses they like but the level of abuse is outrageous. It is indefensable.

    - What this scandal has exposed is that too many MPs are milking the system, contemptuous of the electorate, and are self-serving to the point of being corrupt. Those who are clearly abusing the system (rules or no rules) should lose the whip. Local parties/ electorates should decide whether further action is required.

    - The House of Commons Authorities are utterly incompetent and are not worth the taxpayers money wasted on them. Sack everyone one in the fees office and Gorbals Mick along with them.

    - It is unacceptable to allow MP’s to control their terms and conditions. An fully independent body should take over the control of these matters.


  13. The secong extract is gobbledeegook


  14. 6 - Kens correct, the 2004/5 is the relevant Green Book.
    Thatchers changes to allow Mortgage Interest payments would be outside the rules in 1971.


  15. Mike the 1971 rules don’t apply I guess - they were relaxed in the eighties.


  16. 6. Mike. I just checked and the preamble in the 2006 version is still the 1971 one.

    I don’t understand how Margaret Moran’s claim for the house is within the definition. If it had been her main home all along, it might have been permissible (just), but what she did was to claim it was her second home and then stick the taxpayers with the bill. Surely that isnt a cost incurred for performing her parliamentary duties?

    http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/HofCpsap.pdf

    I think the defence of following the rules might not hold for the likes of Moran. Sh might think she’s gotten away with it as the Expenses office said yes, but it surely doesnt fall within the scope of the ACA? The Parliamentary Commissioner on Standards can investigate improper use of allowances.


  17. BTW, I don’t normally get picky, but to allow the old “there/their” error to creep into a new article… tut tut… :)


  18. I suppose one could argue reading the 1971 rules that it only applies if your main home is in your constituency. If your main residence is in London then you never need to leave to fulfill your “Parliamentary duties”.


  19. 2003 version:

    “The additional costs allowance (ACA) reimburses Members of Parliament for expenses wholly, exclusively and necessarily incurred when staying overnight away from their main residence (referred to below as their main home) for the purpose of performing Parliamentary duties. This excludes expenses that have been incurred for purely personal or political purposes”.

    2005 version:
    “The additional costs allowance (ACA) reimburses Members of Parliament for expenses wholly, exclusively and necessarily incurred when staying overnight away from their main UK residence (referred to below as their main home) for the purpose of performing Parliamentary duties. This excludes expenses that have been incurred for purely personal or political purposes.”

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/cgi-bin/newhtml_hl?DB=semukparl&STEMMER=en&WORDS=green%20book&ALL=green%20book&ANY=&PHRASE=&CATEGORIES=&SIMPLE=&SPEAKER=&COLOUR=red&STYLE=s&ANCHOR=muscat_highlighter_first_match&URL=/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmstnprv/1044/104404.htm#muscat_highlighter_first_match

    In other words, it’s basically the same.


  20. 7 JackW [re previous thread]

    Thanks Jack. Sky would only allow £60 at 2/1 so I had another £140 with Hills at 7/4. Looks like great value.


  21. If Moran was a Conservative MP she would be deselected. That is why I expect some Conservative MPs to be deselected soon. The contrast with Brown’s dithering will be “clear blue water”.


  22. Button on pole for tomorrow!


  23. 20 - Have the Wintertons been deselected?


  24. Please support Major Phil Packer to raise £1M for the Help the Heroes campaign.

    http://www.philpacker.com/

    Maj Phil Packer has completed the London Marathon on crutches having been told he would never walk again. This magnificent man has shown that courage, determination and selfless devotion to others exists in this Nation.

    In marked contrast to the Flip twins, Darling and Hoon, who have used the hard earned taxes of men like Phil Packer to build up property portfolios worth Millions.

    And that disgraceful MP who spent £22500 on dry rot repairs at her seaside home. More money that the Private soldier who died yesterday in Afghanistan earns in a year.

    ‘All my expenses were within the rules’. Nuremberg 2009


  25. re 16. I was taking it from Ben Brogan!!!


  26. I think “it’s within the rules” is the defense of those who know they are not operating within the spirit of the rules and are feeling uncomfortable about it. Cameron is absolutely on the money when he says that individual MP’s need to justify their expenses to the public. Personally I think that some who claim a lot, but who have acted in the spirit of the rules, won’t necesarily be damaged.

    One of the main issues, I believe, is that the current system insulates many MP’s from the realities of living in modern Britain and this is important for our MP’s in understanding the real effects of the legislation they vote for and support.

    Christina D has made a couple of good posts about this issue - the government has clamped down very heavily on claimable expenses etc in the tax system but MP’s are immune and don’t understand the reality of what they are doing and its impact on small businesses etc. It’s the same with Council Tax - they can reclaim it therefore they don’t properly understand how unhappy people are with the injustices within the current system.

    I have no problem with a system that reimburses MP’s for the genuine costs they occur (and this ought to include some provision for a second home)in doing their job but the same standards and rules on allowances (and this includes taxation on benefits in kind, capital aloowances etc) must apply to them as to the rest of us. This might make them understand the unintended consequences they create a little more than they seem to at the moment.


  27. F1:

    Looks like Button and Vettel will be the two tussling for the title. Mildly surprised Button managed to take the pole.

    Also, the first time for a while I had no qualifying bets. Put on a little at 6.2 for Vettel to win the race. Hopefully those odds will shorten to around 3.5 or so.


  28. 24 - that’s what “[sic]” is for ;)


  29. 19 PtP. No problem. Keep topping up as allowed. The expertise on PB should allow for an excellent party atmosphere on election day with the odd bottle of bolly on the ice !!

    BTW has Nadine given you that frock back - Shocking pink for a shocking performance on QT ??


  30. 22 We live in hope.


  31. 23. I wonder if that is where we are heading. Every MP having to make a one off charity donation. Say £1000 each as a gesture followed by a hypothecated x£m cut in over all expenses budget. It would need to go to a sexy non stae actor like the British legion. or sick animals.

    Its going to need something big to clear the air after this.


  32. tim May 9th, 2009 at 2:01 pm “Have the Wintertons been deselected?”

    Just waiting for the details to come out, up to now they just look as bad as the Balls 2. Personally I cannot wait to see the back of all of them.


  33. 30:’It would need to go to a sexy non stae actor like the British legion. or sick animals.’

    The farmy-farm fund?


  34. 29 Ted. Can’t imagine the dastardly duo going quietly !!


  35. 28 Indeed, Jack. I have already placed my order for the bubbly. One should never leave these things too late.

    Nadine was simply awful. I told her ’some of us can wear pink, others cannot, my dear.’ She wouldn’t listen.


  36. 34, saw bits and pieces of QT. She wasn’t helped by the rabidly anti-Tory/pro-Labour audience members.


  37. Whereas I feel this whole issue will be bad for the Tories, the media narrative is such that unless Cameron has spent thousands on gnomes or something similar this really does kick Labour hard whilst their down.


  38. 22,29. That’s the up side of this for Leaderships. If a number of bed blockers are taken down by this with less than a year to go allsorts of bright young things could be parachuted into safe seats. I bet loads of Lib Dems are ringing up to offer to leaflet in Montgomeryshire and on geneology websites as we speak.


  39. Would be good to see the end of the Wintertons amid the cull.


  40. 34 PtP. Your days on the catwalk down on the Newmarket gallops were clearly not wasted !!

    BTW Peter …. how’s things with “Mighty Fella” ?


  41. £8,865 cost of Bang & Olufsen television which one of Labour’s most long-standing MPs tried to claim for, only to be told the maximum allowed was £750

    Have these people no shame? There has to be prosecutions.


  42. 40, is that right? An eight grand TV?

    Reminds me of Baldrick spending £400,000 on a turnip.


  43. 19. Jack W and PtP. Mike is on record as thinking that Watford is a value bet for the Tories to win.

    Battle of the Titans. Jack W v The Mighty Smithson.


  44. 33 Don’t mind if they are dragged out by their curly little tails squealing loudly as they are forced to stop supping at the trough - their expenses claims, their votes throughout against the interests of the voters they represent, the party they belong to and the taxpayers funding their lifestyles, enough is enough.


  45. My favourite so far for the LD’s was the £64 electric razor. It was turned down !


  46. 41 Morris Dancer. But that was a “Turnip in the Country” …. A “London Mews Turnip” would surely top out at £1M plus ??


  47. 34 - I quite liked the pink

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_VWMhxg4UsqE/SgNIEUQu_KI/AAAAAAAAG1w/o7BY94K065s/s1600-h/TrainCrashNads.jpg

    Recently we’ve had Pickles and Lansley implode on QT, now Nadine claims Trident missiles are not WMD.

    Who are the Tories planning to put on QT next, a Rees Mogg tag team?


  48. “The size of Britain’s economy can be hard to get your head around - but what if you were to shrink it to human scale?”

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8037500.stm


  49. 40. Which MP was that?

    On a another topic, any tips for Eurovision?


  50. Apologies if this has already been posted. Telegraph on Alex Salmonds expenses:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5299733/Alex-Salmond-claimed-800-for-food-on-MPs-expenses.html

    What annoys me is how he is allowed to claim for two jobs when he can only be in one place at one time. It should be either/or and I think that Salmond should be made to give up the perks of one of the jobs. He should only be allowed to claim benefits for the one he spends most time doing.


  51. 40. No, they have no shame. That’s part of the offensiveness of it all, and what the ruling classes don’t seem to understand, swaddled as they are in the sense of entitlement.

    e.g. Andy Burnham trying to claim for a £20 bathrobe. It’s not the money, it’s the fact that he thought this could even be a permissible expense that the taxpayer should fund - above his already generous SIX FIGURE ministerial salary.

    A f*cking bathrobe. Somehow the faint ambience of sleaze attached to the mere word “bathrobe” seems all too fitting.

    And of course Burnham spent many months bullying the Fees office into accepting his very sizeable and dubious expense claims, until they eventually caved.

    Ugh. Andy Bathrobe Burnham. Go away.


  52. 30: I don’t think the public would be much impressed by a charity donation, nice though it might be anyway - virtually all Labour MPs were persuaded by then party chair Ian McCartney to gave a sizable donation to the fund for victims of the Farepak collapse, and if anyone noticed, including the beneficiaries, I’ve not heard of it.

    I think people will be largely satisfied (some people will never be satisfied) if any obvious wrong-doers are sacked from the front bench and, more important, the new system commands respect. The latter part is the tough one.


  53. 40. No, they have no shame. That’s part of the offensiveness of it all, and what the ruling classes don’t seem to understand, swaddled as they are in the sense of entitlement.

    e.g. Andy Burnham trying to claim for a £20 bathrobe. It’s not the money, it’s the fact that he thought this could even be a permissible expense that the taxpayer should fund - above his already generous SIX FIGURE ministerial salary.

    A f*cking bathrobe. Somehow the faint whiff of sleaze attached to the mere word “bathrobe” seems all too fitting.

    And of course Burnham spent many months bullying the Fees office into accepting his very sizeable and dubious expense claims, until they eventually caved.

    Ugh. Andy Bathrobe Burnham. Go away.


  54. 42 st john. I fear Mike was sniffing the cooking sherry at the time !!

    44 Yellow Submarine. Lib Dem MP and razors …. Gadzooks, is nothing sacred !! …. Ah, perhaps it was Sarah Teather ??


  55. 35. The audience were far too partisan (or deluded) as it was Brown’s constituency, personally I’d have put someone senior in for the Tories e.g. Hesseltine.


  56. The Wintertons.

    We can live in hope but, remember, deselection is down to the local constituency associations who can well brazen it out against the will of Central Office and the leadership.

    In short, if the locals decide they can stand the troughing, then it will hardly be the fault of the national leadership.

    There good precedents, though. Michael Trend got short shrift from his locals.


  57. I wonder, given the police investigation into Tony Mcnulty if he’s been told by Downing St NOT to resign. By setting the sleaze bar high more ministers might then ride it out - at least until the reshuffle when several will be dumped by an ungrateful PM.


  58. Labour MP Barry Gardiner (again apologies if previously posted):

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5298359/Barry-Gardiner-195500-profit-from-a-flat-renovated-with-public-money-MPs-expenses.html

    Of course with the latest changes he would not have got any of the allowances discussed…….


  59. 41.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5297251/MPs-expenses-by-numbers.html?image=29

    looks like a decent tv though, I’ll credit his taste if not his judgment


  60. 53, didn’t know that. Would explain why the audience were less than intellectual giants.

    55, the problem is that he can’t just let one go. It’s half a dozen or none.


  61. 52. here is one for you. The Telegraph has a “patrican” LD MP as spending £1400 on “4 bedside shelves”. Surely “Patrican” has to mean either Sir Ming or the Viscount?


  62. 57, pah. It’s like buying a watch for £10,000. It won’t tell a better quality of time. There comes a point when spending more cash (especially the taxpayers) doesn’t get you any extra value.


  63. 50. Sorry, Nick, I appreciate your relative honesty and candour amidst this slew of sordor, but people being “demoted from the Front Bench” is not enough.

    The biggest offenders - Hoon, Darling and Blears spring immediately to mind - need to be sacked and thrown out of parliament, and then, very arguably, prosecuted.

    They have, prima facie, stolen our money. Let a jury assess their claims to have acted “within the rules”.

    If an ordinary person was caught doing this kind of stuff in the benefits system they would face a real risk of prosecution. The same must apply to our MPs. And yes, that means Tories and LDs as well as Labour.

    Only then can politics be cleansed: when the voters feel that their MPs operate under exactly the same moral and legal code as the people they govern.


  64. 51 little Scouse Mouse caan be all toasty whilst he sits at his dressing table and puts on his mascara. Maybe his friend Phyllis will lend him a sassy little evening number so he can be the belle of the trougher’s ball.


  65. 53 - How partisan would the audience have to be for you to claim that Trident Missiles are not WMD?

    She also claimed earlier on that in Scotland the DNA of convicted sex offenders is destroyed.


  66. 62, that’s a point. Do we have a mascara bill, or did he steal his wife’s? Is this why she was threatening to divorce him?!


  67. 50 Nick, I agree that there should be sackings. Why then haven’t Jacqui Smith or McNulty returned to the backbenches?


  68. 59 - Sure its not bedside elves?


  69. a rather pathetic attempt to change the subject Tim away from the subject of a cabinet and Prime Minister with their noses in the trough


  70. 58. To be honest I feel that they should alternate between Labour/Tory/Lib Dem target seats in a run up to a General Election as to stop situations like on Thursday where the audience weren’t even making sense just backing Brown for the sake of it.


  71. HMRC are going to have a field day. all the back tax and penalties for expenses that in fact were just additions to income.


  72. 70, that sounds eminently sensible, and not very Pravda-like. Maybe the broadcasting laws will stop them hosting editions outside Gordon Brown’s house [primary residence] nearer the election though.


  73. Btw, does anyone know where I can find out where the locals will be? (I’m assuming they aren’t everywhere..)

    Don’t think we’ll have any this time, just the euros. I’m in Morley & Outwood, incidentally.


  74. 68.David Steel opening line “I rather feel sorry for Gordon Brown…” spontaneous round of applause from the audience. I should have switched off then.


  75. 70 - I don’t think you can blame the audience for Nadines performance, unless they gave her acid.


  76. 59 Yellow Sub. Likely …. or perhaps Sir Alan Beith or Sir Robert Smith Bt.


  77. And another:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5297251/MPs-expenses-by-numbers.html?image=24

    This is basic fraud. I don’t know how else you interpret that. “Inadvertent embezzlement by mistaken deception”?

    It’s fraud. It’s theft. It’s stealing. Plain as.


  78. The Wintertons remind me somewhat of the Ceaucescus as a couple.
    They have a great belief in their own self importance.
    These old style Tories need to be slung out and told not to come back.
    They are not required or wanted.


  79. Regarding QT Lord Steel was very pro-Brown.


  80. 56. Nice - how does somone on £60k pa get to pay £700k for a big house in stockbroker belt Chorleywood in 2002 as well as a place in London.

    Some irony of a Brent North MP living in toff-Chorleywood in Bucks.

    You don’t even have to make it in to the cabinet for any big period of time to set yourself for life with your property empire and gold-plated pension.

    No wonder the property bubble was allowed to run and run… 125% loan to value mortgage anyone?


  81. Just for record: Trident missiles are not weapon-of-mass-destructions. They are a delivery-package, much like the Vanguard submarines of which they form as part of a system.

    The nuclear MIRV warheads held within are. [Explosive range: 0.5 - 100 kilotons]. A Trident landing on your doorstep would probably be as destructive as a Jumbo-jet*. Drop a warhead, now that would be different**.

    On-thread: no comments, but am enjoying the commentary. All building up to tonight’s headlines…!

    * Think 9/11
    ** Even without an explosion that amount of plutonium ain’t gonna’ be nice.


  82. 79, quite. Sympathy for an incompetent bully is beyond me. At any time when human kindness threatens me with a similar feeling towards Brown I just remind myself of my gran’s eyesight problems caused by devolution, the wrecking of the economy, the shabby treatment of our armed forces and the attempts to smear the wives of frontbench Opposition spokesmen.

    And then it fades away and gets, rightly, replaced with contempt and anger.


  83. And another:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5297251/MPs-expenses-by-numbers.html?image=25

    More fraud. It’s just fraud. MPs are stealing.


  84. What is it about the LD scottish mafia that makes them so pro-Labour? Ming, Steel etc and their NI neighbour Paddy Ashdown were really in the wrong party.

    Even Charles Kennedy carried on with close election planning through Razzle, with Labour.


  85. As I said on a previous thread Nadine was poor on QT and Tories need to be careful about putting up touchy-feely spokespeople (oo-er missus) rather than intellectual heavyweights…or even middleweights….but tim can you really say you were impressed by the Labour leader in Scotland…if he is the future…bye bye Scotland.


  86. 72. It would be a sensible move to try and have a set out plan for Question Time as it really has been rather stagnant for the past few years- except for Starkey;).

    75. She was terrible but to be honest no one really did that well as it was oh so predictable.


  87. 85, I always thought the programmes requested panel members rather than the parties providing them.

    Edit: I hate the BBC’s ‘fetish’ for ‘quotation marks’. Story on the front page:

    “Tributes to ‘brave’ Rifleman”


  88. 87. They do but it depends who is “available”- hence why we haven’t seen Harman in a while;). She’s entrenched in the bunker:).


  89. 85. My understanding from our MP and a friend in Cowley Street is that they pick who they want. Its so prestigious that any stroppy party’s that argue are threatened with the empty chair and they just go along with it. I’ve heard frustration voiced at how often Chaz and Shirley are on for the LD’s as opposed to the junior spokesperon for Bluetak,Typex and post it notes who was on Grid that week.


  90. 85 - No.He was dire.

    But thats three Tories in the last few weeks.
    OK Dorries is not going to get anywhere near power
    but Pickles is running your campaign and Lansley has been promised the Health Portfolio.


  91. 60. “…didn’t know that. Would explain why the audience were less than intellectual giants.”

    Does that translate as “they weren’t Tories”? However, I’d agree the Tory on the panel would have got a marginally better reception had it been almost anyone other than Nadine Dorries. Her bizarre claim that Trident isn’t a weapon of mass destruction will live long in the memory.


  92. Why did Lord Steel have to point out to the Brown supporting audience that Nadine was a Conservative?

    It was very partisan.


  93. I see the BBC is trotting out the line that the Telegraph is wrong to investigate ChocolateSantaGate…

    … because “seemingly endless stories about MPs who, in the main, have not broken any rules - even if the rules themselves are being questioned - diminishes, from a low base, any remaining public trust in politics.”

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8041591.stm

    What a total crock of crap. This reminds me of the judge who thought it was wrong to release the Birmingham Six: not because he reckoned they were actually guilty (he admitted they were innocent) but because admitting such a failure in British Justice risked diminishing the faith of people in the judicial system itself.

    This is exactly the same putrid and ridiculous argument. Grrr.

    If the system is f*cked, fix it, don’t pretend it isn’t broken and hope the problems will go away.


  94. 84.”What is it about the LD scottish mafia that makes them so pro-Labour? Ming, Steel etc and their NI neighbour Paddy Ashdown were really in the wrong party.”

    I think its often forgotten, but some of these long lasting friendships between older Scottish politicians of all parties, go way back in time. Right back to university and the politics/debating scene for some, it was a much smaller clique compared to down South.
    And there were some deep friendships forged between high profile Labour and Conservatives politicians in particular. I remember when John Smith died, we were having our conference in Inverness(?), and either Rifkind or Lang was interviewed for their reaction, they could barely hold back the tears on camera.


  95. 85 As Morris Dancer says at 87 it’s not a party choice (the BBC recently refused suggested replacement for a minister who withdrew as they thought it could be the Government forced the withdrawal to try to get a bigger hitter on).


  96. 91, no. It translates as ‘they voted for Brown’ and ‘they’re tribally Labour’. I don’t mind telling you that the voters in Morley & Outwood’s predecessor constituency are also tribally Labour and pretty moronic because of it. No seat should be considered utterly safe and people should not vote the same way constantly out of blind loyalty.

    [I'm too young to have voted many times, but have voted for 3 different parties].


  97. “Jack W and PtP. Mike is on record as thinking that Watford is a value bet for the Tories to win.”

    What are the Conservative odds in Watford? It looks a certain Labour loss though I’m not sure who to.


  98. 93, maybe the same people who are using Joanna Lumley [copyright Toenails] to get at the Government are responsible for the leak?


  99. Nadine Dorris vs Margaret Hodge It’s a close call! Hodge has been in government though, so the Labour talent pool ain’t that large!


  100. 96. I believe that makes you a floater…


  101. Someone was saying the other day that it was wrong to dump all the information in this way and it would be better to drip it out. Well I just thought I’d point out that the Telegraph has so far highlighted just 25 out of 650 MPs. There is a long way to go yet.


  102. ”What is it about the LD scottish mafia that makes them so pro-Labour? Ming, Steel etc and their NI neighbour Paddy Ashdown were really in the wrong party.”

    Don’t forget Kennedy.

    I think the ludicrous plan the LibDem’s had before 2005 to replace the Conservatives as the main opposition was influenced by the origin of their leadership. They never really understood England.


  103. 99, Hodge must be worse. She was Minister of Culture and criticsed the Proms for not being inclusive enough.


  104. “I worked within the rules” has a ring of “I was only following orders” about it.

    I think that voters expect their politicians to exercise good judgment in how they spend tax payers money.


  105. Nadine was clearly chosen for QT because of the recent “smeargate”. She also photogenic and normally performs well in the media. However this time she was mostly out of her depth especially on Scottish affairs.

    A small worry for the Tories is the recent poor run of Tory spokesman on QT. Pickles being the utmost worst among equals. He needs to be shunted (not easy for a 30st brick out-house) off the screens.


  106. 40 Yes, Jack, I always went down well at Newmarket.

    Mighty Fella is just fine - smug even. Wouldn’t you be if you’d manage to retire at his age?


  107. MPs begging letters.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-
    expenses/5298303/MPs-expenses-The-best-of-the-begging-letters.html

    One classic Labour bleat:

    “From a natural justice perspective I feel a justifiable exception would be the fairest manner to deal with the current situation” – letter from Labour MP in 2006 on why he should be allowed to claim for a £3,100 Sony 40 inch TV

    He thought it “natural justice” that he be entitled to a three grand television.

    And for the sake of balance, a classically Tory harrumph of de haut en bas pomposity:

    “Reducing the payment by over £1,000 affects my cash flow. Please expedite the payment” – letter from Tory MP whose expenses payment had been reduced by the fees office

    THEY ARE ALL THIEVING SCUM. How much did that Labour MP charge for Rentokil to slaughter his rats? I’d be happy to contribute some of my taxes to a similar process at the Commons.


  108. 96. Come on, Morris Dancer, that audience was giving at least as much applause to Nicola Sturgeon when she mocked Labour as they were to the defence of Gordon Brown. A Tory-sceptic audience is not necessarily a pro-Labour one (at least in Scotland).

    If it had been elsewhere in Scotland, Glasgow say, it wouldn’t have been any more pro-Tory. I remember the incredulity here last year when the Glasgow QT audience broke into spontaneous laughter when a panellist said “everyone knows David Cameron is committed to the NHS”.


  109. The begging letters link again:

    http://tinyurl.com/rbm82q


  110. 106 PtP. Retire at my age !!!! you should see Mrs Jack W’s bedroom shelves bill !! …. Ooppps.

    Jack W is 106.


  111. @81:

    That’s just a silly semantic point. Yes, Trident missiles are just a delivery system, but they’re a delivery system FOR NUCLEAR WARHEADS.


  112. Apols, that still didn’t work, and I want to do my bit for the reputation of our hardworking parliamentarians.

    Try again:

    http://tinyurl.com/puj8we


  113. I note with interest a split in opinion on one of the LD voice private forums. The bright young things think this is all good for the party because obviously people will realise how squeeky clean we are. Older, Wiser heads but crucially ones that have expereince of door knocking over the last week think its a plague on all our houses apocaylpse.


  114. 97 another richard. Tories presently odds on for Watford - 10//11 with Ladbrokes.


  115. 92.”Why did Lord Steel have to point out to the Brown supporting audience that Nadine was a Conservative?2

    Oh, David Steele has never impressed me at the best of times, but he went down further in my estimations on QT this week. And those having a go at Nadine should remember that she was at least more honest than some of the other grandstanders on that programme, they took the easy option and played to the Brown gallery in his backyard. I thought that she did reasonable in a hostile and rude environment to be honest.
    Steele was quite rude to Nadine, and his defence of Brown pretty sickening when he was sat next to one of the victims of McBrides emails.


  116. Amidst all this sleaze, we should never forget that a substantial minority of MPs are actually honest.


  117. #111 [ by Martin Coxall May 9th, 2009 at 2:54 pm ]

    OK, I did not try too hard! :P But as I refuse to comment on certain posters’ comments I tried to show how a certain argument were annoyingly repetitive and [logically] unfounded.

    That said, I don’t consider the B-29 a WMD (though it is the only use of such a delivery-package). Nor the SeaKing helicopter (which used to carry nuclear depth-charges).

    Maybe an argument needs to be thought-out and justified…? [Back to reading "The Economist".]


  118. O/T Youzhny makes the Munich final. Good news for 13/2 each way backers.


  119. @116:

    Sean Fear damning the entire political class with faint praise there.


  120. 116. I am sure you are right, but we voters will, now, never be convinced of this, until the obvious wrongdoers are thrown out of parliament - and prosecuted, if needs be.

    Until we see justice being done, rather than the police being called in TO INVESTIGATE THE LEAKERS RATHER THAN THE THIEVES, then the only possible conclusion is that they are all complicit. As they are, in not chucking out their erring colleagues.

    Sackings and resignations are the only solution. On all sides.


  121. 120. I fear that Author of the Genesis Secret understands the need for propiciatory sacrifice rather better than our MP at 50 ( And I’m a NPMP fan..) This level of sin needs needs atonement.


  122. “excludes expenses that have been incurred for purely personal or political purposes.”

    So charging the taxpayer for hotel rooms used during party political conferences is illegal?


  123. We need a bonfire of the banalities.


  124. 120 Prosecute the staff of the Parliamentary Fees Office who have been complicit in defrauding the tax payer as well.


  125. 116. Sean Fear. Only if they put their voices behind cleaning up Parliamentary sleaze and ensuring that those of their colleagues that are seriously abusing the system are brought fully to account for their sins (e.g. removal of the whip).

    To be honest I don’t actually see them queueing up to do so right now………..


  126. I think that only Martin Coxall has really grasped the point I was actually making.


  127. 105.”Nadine was clearly chosen for QT because of the recent “smeargate”. She also photogenic and normally performs well in the media. However this time she was mostly out of her depth especially on Scottish affairs.2

    JackW, I saw a different programme. In fact Tory gets roasting from Scottish audience would have almost missed me by to be honest. No, I was actually uncomfortable with this programme, and I have already posted about it. And I think David Dimbly was too, and he tried to be a bit of a gentleman to cover it up. And when you look at Nadine’s performance in light of that, it makes more sense.
    David Steele’s manner towards her was rude bordering on nasty.


  128. 125 - I’m afraid both Seans have lost all sense of perspective here.

    Sean Fear has claimed that the expense issue makes the Government worse than the BNP and SeanT had us believe that the Hillsborough service protests were a direct result of the bathplug issue.

    Of course its important but lets not lose the plot completely.


  129. 126. No I grasped your stealthy and delicate use of “substantial minority”, I was merely pointing out that the minority need to be saved, and the only way to do is to purge the filthy thieving majority of MPs who are vile grasping scum.


  130. One reason why I’ve never watched QT (even before I slung my TV out) is that the damn panel is infested with politicians. I do not want these numpties given free airtime for what are effectively mini-PPB.

    Back in the way back when, it was rare to have a politician on the old radio Any Questions?. Instead there were the likes of Bertrand Russell, James Cameron and Mortimer Wheeler - people who thought and analysed events and ideas for a living. Weren’t any of the non-celebrity celebrity mob invited on either.

    Quite often the guests were able to provide a new insight or interpretation on the events of the day. Very thought provoking. At the very least they were more in touch with the general public than 95% of today’s political clones. But now, what with ‘balance’ and the surrender of the beeb to the political straight-jacket it’s little better than ‘vote for us!’ advertising. Not worth wasting your time on.


  131. 128. Just witless, pointless and inane. Why bother, tim?

    You used to be funny once. And I mean - once. The Pickles gag. That actually made me smile, briefly.

    It’s sad what’s happened to you.


  132. 20.Peter, what was Jack W tip from previous thread.Having trouble finding it.I have been to pub to watch the Old Firm game so not at my best.


  133. 59: Atrocious taste - they’re wildly expensive and poorly performing. Pretty much like anything Labour does, really.


  134. 127 ChristianaD. Disagreeing with a female on an opinions programme doesn’t make one “nasty”.

    Frankly it was a poor show all round, one of the worst I’ve had the displeasure to view.


  135. 110 Erm….just exactly what does Her Ladyship put on all those bedroom shelves, young Jack?

    No..please don’t tell me. :oops:


  136. @131:

    Naw, Tim’s made me laugh several times. He has quite an acerbic wit when he choose to unfurl it. Pity he doesn’t do it more often.


  137. 128. I’d genuinely interested to hear you expand on that Tim. I understand that in cash terms this is peanuts. A single dodgy IT project will cost many times more.

    But from a symbolic level isn’t this all just about a perfect storm ? The political class experiences the bursting of the debt bubble just as it is exposed as having had its face in the trough.

    I was looking at the figures the other day. Its quite hard for the BNP to win one Euro seat. But once their support reaches that level then all of a sudden its not that difficult to win 4 or 5.

    Do you not think that within a month we could have £1m pa of public funding going into Neo Nazi’s ?


  138. I have to say this has been a real eye-opener for me. Up till a few months ago, I’d have said there were corrupt and dishonest MPs, but the majority were genuinely public-spirited, if often wrong-headed.

    But I can’t believe that any longer. Far too many of them are engaging in behaviour that would certainly lead to summary dismissal, if one were an ordinary employee, and quite possibly result in prosecution.

    I caused a lot of offence by saying I didn’t think the BNP were worse than the current government, the other evening. I accept that was unfair. But I would say, the BNP are no worse than those MPs and ministers who simply abuse the system.


  139. Given that the Prime Minister and the Cabinet are so deeply implicated in this scandal and abuse seems so widespread there seems no other option but to suspend Parliament and call a General Election with all parties committing to handing over control of MPs terms and conditions to an independent body who would also takeover the running of the HoC including providing a professional speaker.

    MPs have disgraced our political system and as such must pay collectively for their sins!


  140. @134:

    All future Question Times should consist solely of David Starkey ripping this piss out of one New Labour drone, and a token Welsh or Scotch to mop up his excess fury.


  141. 132 MalcolmG

    Tories to win Winchester, LDs to win Watford. Best prices when recommended were evens and 2/1 respectively.


  142. 128 Sean Fear has claimed that the expense issue makes the Government worse than the BNP

    Disregarding their more controversial and unpleasant policies, as individuals they’re probably more honest than the chiselling, taxpayer defrauding crooks currently in office. The BNP are going to do extremely well out of this, and the irony is that Labour will be to blame for their rise from the gutter.


  143. JackW - “Tories presently odds on for Watford - 10//11 with Ladbrokes.”

    I think I prefer the LibDems 7/4 but it will be close.


  144. 132 malcolmg. I’ve tipped the Tories to gain Winchester as value at anything north of 4/6 and the Lib Dems to gain Watford as value anything north of 1/2.


  145. I see Major Packer has completed the Marathon. Puts it all in perpective………wonder if any of the tricksters who make our laws saw it on telly - the tellies paid for by the taxpayer. Tossers


  146. 131. seanT

    Forgotten this?

    tim February 25th, 2009 at 5:59 pm

    “Sean’s rants expressing anger and violence are always punctured by his obligatory reference to a Euro Referendum, which always appears in the middle somewhere.
    Its like being chased down the street by a man with a knife, who stops to shout at the bus timetable.”

    http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/25/has-bobby-blown-his-chances-for-2012/#comment-951859


  147. My strategic deterrent (US, USSR, China, France, UK)
    Your WMD (Israel, Pakistan, India, South Africa)
    His terrorist nukes (N.Korea.)


  148. 50. Not great but miniscule claiming a few pounds compared to the troughers, nothing much there but agree he should have been very careful and claiming food under any circumstances is in my book indefensible. Disappointed that he can be pulled up for such a small amount.


  149. 136. Shhh. I agree. I was just being Traditionally Mean to poor old timmy.

    He is a curious character. I often come on here and find him banging on about me and my father, apropos of nothing at all. I fear he is what psychologists call an “incompetent suitor”

    “Incompetent suitors, despite poor social or courting skills, have a fixation, or in some cases a sense of entitlement to an intimate relationship with those who have attracted their amorous interest. Their victims are most often already in a dating relationship with someone else.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalking

    Nonetheless, he can occasionally raise a smile, as you say. Like a waltzing dog, or something.


  150. 146. too true


  151. I think there have been some really good points made about how, EVEN IF IT WAS ALL ABOVE BOARD, (which it obviously wasn’t), the way the expenses system has operated in recent years has completely insulated MPs from the everyday experiences of the wider world.

    It’s no wonder they repeatedly come out with such rubbish on inflation, relying heavily on dubious statistics, when they never have to pay for food. It’s no wonder the property market was allowed to develop a serious bubble when half of all MPs had a direct stake in that bubble.

    It is often said that MPs have to be paid well to attract the best talent. I don’t believe this is true anymore. The link of salaries to talent has been blown out of the water by what happened at the banks.

    We would be far better served if the country was being run by individuals prepared to put the desire to serve the country, ahead of personal wealth.

    The traditional approach to public service.


  152. Just want to add as well iro Mike Smithson’s hope this morning that the honest MPs are ‘rewarded’ at the ballot box - I completely disagree. A general election is about electing a government and I want all Labour MPs kicked out if possible regardless. Expenses is a big issue, but its not the only issue -

    I don’t rush out of my house to shake hands with everyone that doesn’t break in and nick my stash.

    Its not about vengence (although there will be some) - this issue is a ‘plus’ for the person or party that gives us back our trust.


  153. 81. That post is complete b*llocks, what difference does it make , that 90% of the missile is not nucleur. Get a grip.


  154. 151 my post edit - and trust is not restored merely by not being a trougher


  155. 145. It always amazes me how people have ready access to my previous crazy rants and splenetic outbursts on pb.com, or the retorts thereto; when I want to find a previous remark by someone it usually takes me ages and I can scarcely be bothered.

    It’s very curious. I’m starting to wonder if Nick is letting you guys into his potting shed to use his famous steam-driven Sean Thomas Objectionable Remark-o-puter.


  156. The Additional Costs Allowance reimburses “for expenses wholly, exclusively and necessarily incurred when staying overnight away from their main UK residence…for the purposes of performing Parliamentary duties. This excludes expenses that have been incurred for purely personal or political purposes.”

    One MP has increased his claim for ACA from £16,096 in 2001/2 to £23,057 in 2007/8 - an increase of 43.25%

    Another MP - named in the Daily Telegraph - has increased his claim from £18,001 in 2001/2 to £21,700 in 2007/8 - an increase of 20.55%

    Can someone - preferably with a PhD in maths - tell me which one of the two is most likely to be ripping us off?


  157. 85. Have to say TIM promoting Gray , who could not beat a donkey, actually shows how much he knows , zero would be polite.


  158. 142. EdP Let’s not go overboard here.

    The BNP are not in this mess as well purely because their policies are so offensive that the electorate have repeatedly rejected them. If they are inducted into the current system they will be snorting as loudly as the rest of the porkers at the trough before too long.

    There is nothing morally superior about the BNP. They are still the lowest form of political life in our society.


  159. 143 If the Conservatives were only to make modest gains against Labour, the Lib Dems would take Watford easily. But if the Conservatives win a landslide (which seems likely) I think they’ll win Watford easily, despite their weakness there in local government.

    WRT which, I see that the leader of Herts County Council, Robert Gordon, has done a runner from Watford to a safe division elsewhere in the County,


  160. Does anyone know if there will be polls tonight or not?


  161. Nadine got confused between Nuclear Warhead, and appearing on QT as a Disarmed Nuclear Airhead


  162. 150. OK I’m finally off for a walk in the Spring sun. I did a chapter of my thriller between outbursts of pb rage.

    A final thought: Alex (and some others) have made this very sensible point:

    “It’s no wonder they repeatedly come out with such rubbish on inflation, relying heavily on dubious statistics, when they never have to pay for food. It’s no wonder the property market was allowed to develop a serious bubble when half of all MPs had a direct stake in that bubble.”

    The exes system is almost designed to produce bad economic governance, let alone filthy and corrupt MPs, because it means MPs have a direct and unhealthy interest in the effervescence of the property market, as it provides them with such a lavish income.

    Not good. They all need to be sacked, then we start afresh.

    Ta-ra.


  163. 157 A BNP government would, I’m sure, be grossly corrupt. But, right now, they’re not the most corrupt of the lot.


  164. 150. Alex.

    The point is to offer a decent salary to those who deserve it. Pay them less, let them rent a studio in London or in the constituency. Pay those who serve in front bench positions or running committees a lot more. That way we wouldnt have so many no hopers blocking seats forever. If they were paid less then they might leave - better people could then take over constituencies and vie for promotion.

    Typical backbench MP = £30,000. That way, we wouldnt get these useless idiots blocking seats.

    If you offered them £100,000, the useless would become entrenched. All these random people we’ve never heard of - stuffing their faces with expenses.


  165. 156 - see 90


  166. 115. Christina, unfortunately having someone like Nadine on in Dunfermline shows that the Tories are either bereft of anyone that knows anything about Scotland or else are their usual arrogant could not care less, big mistake having her on to represent Tories position in Scotland, she had no clue.


  167. 162. How precisely do you go about measuring the relative corruption of a fascist organisation? Corruption of the soul is the problem.


  168. 163 but if you pay a backbencher £30k, they will fill their boots on expenses to compensate.


  169. 162. Sean Fear. It’s difficult to be corrupt in public office when you dont hold public office. But I wonder if this might not trigger a move to the BNP at the euros or even allow UKIP to do better, yes, I know UKIP are corrupt, but does the average voter?


  170. 162. Sean Fear. Again let’s not go overboard. They are not PERCEIVED as being as corrupt. Nor are the Greens or the EDP. The reason being they have won precious little.

    Having read their manifesto, whilst populist, it is clear that they are amongst the most delusional, disingenuous and dishonest of all parties in this country (the current Labour party does take some beating after all).

    Corruption comes in many forms…….


  171. re 160. I’ve no knowledge of any specific polls but my guess is that we’ll see at least one and possible two.

    We might get YouGov in the Sunday Times.


  172. 164. One of the things that really irks me about this scandal is that for years we have had to put up with MPs spinning the line that ‘no-one goes into politics to make money, dear boy’.

    It is now sickeningly obvious that a great number of them have done precisely that, and have made a disturbingly efficient job of it as well.

    168. No - because we will axe the expenses as well.


  173. Off Topic - Marina Hyde @ CIF

    “Is there a point at which the Home Office has been so debased that it has to be officially downgraded from one of the “great ¬offices of state”? At the present rate, it must be close to being relegated to some fifth-tier ¬department of the sort one wouldn’t mind putting Geoff Hoon in charge of.”

    “[Home Office headed by] dear old Jacqui Smith who took a while to emerge as the Brown government’s breakout halfwit, but has been making up for it ever since with a series of blunders so blatant that you could be forgiven for assuming she is in the pay of a far-east betting syndicate.”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/08/jacqui-smith-dna-gurkhas


  174. 168. DISWS. In my system there are no expenses. They get £30K as a backbencher + a rental flat + a weekly trip to the constituency. Parliamentary aides paid for by House.

    You get paid loads as a senior frontbencher (either side) or when in the top three of a committee. One would need to find the right mechanisms to prevent the committee seats being fixed by the party.


  175. David Steele on QT was a real prat when ND said that the model for expenses in Scotland was a good example as was the DNA rules. First he tried to show her up by asking for other examples and when that didn’t work he made a snide comment about it being a pity the Tories didn’t support the parliament when it was being legislated.

    Silly prat, that is no way to win new friends or prove he is a magnanimous statesman in victory. He should have praised her for her change of heart, but instead he did a Brown and made a partisan point for short term satisfaction.


  176. 175. Hardly surprising from the man who played such a big part in the Lib-Lab pact, is it? Leopards, spots etc.


  177. 172 so the people of Orkney and Shetland get an MP who is paid £30,000 a year with which he has to fund two homes and pay to commute to London?
    Just means that only the rich will afford to be politicians and will shut out the common man.

    Reform is required, reform is not the installation of the dictatorship of the Upper House.


  178. 141. Peter, thanks I am on.


  179. 177. DISWS. No he pays for one home - either in constituency or in London and he gets a rented studio flat in the other place. He gets a weekly trip to his constituency.


  180. 175. I always thought Steele was an unctuous little creep. Remember his Spitting Image puppet?


  181. 144. Jack , Cheers I am on


  182. 174 - OK, I see the point but I’m not happy about lining the pockets of property magnates that can’t be removed by vote by offering up 650 forced tenants.


  183. 166.malcolmg, the Conservative party does not choose the guest, the QT team do. Read YS’s post up thread about this. And no, its not the Conservatives fault that she represents an embarrassment to Gordon Brown right now.

    This type of reaction goes against our sense of fair play and hospitality as well. Just look at the reaction that Salmond gets when he appears on the programme elsewhere in the country, the audiences there don’t penalise him for being either Scottish or SNP.
    I remember Kelvin Mackenzie’s comments about the Scots not going down very well with an English audience not that long ago.


  184. 158 ‘There is nothing morally superior about the BNP. They are still the lowest form of political life in our society.’

    jsfl, I’m sure it’s possible to be racist and honest. The brutal and unpalatable reality is that Nick Griffin and friends are going to reap rich, and undeserved political reward at the ballot box thanks in no part to the crimes of many MP’s and Labour Ministers.


  185. re 141. A really stupid bet on Watford if I might say so. My money’s on the Tories there.

    The LD are going to find it very hard in tight three way marginals like this one.


  186. Afternoon all and having caught up on this and the previous thread, a few observations including a couple no-one seems yet to have mentioned.

    It was always obvious that the Telegraph was going to keep the juiciest stories for the Sunday Telegraph, the issue most widely read and most likely to be reported on barring an international headline.

    Ergo Mr and Mrs Balls by not appearing with the other cabinet ministers on Friday, always seemed likely to be the starring couple tomorrow.

    However that other couple of points:

    About 10 days ago we were told that Labour whips had put 3 MPs on “suicide watch” because of the likely effect publication might have on them. Even the news about the Honourable Member for Dry Rot South or the Minister for Expensive Security do not fit into that category so who are the 3?

    In addition we were told that 3 Labour MPs were desperately worried releasing their expenses unaltered would clearly show they have been guilty of infidelity and in the case of 2 of them, with one another. Nothing so far indicates that the Honourable Member for Shagging Senseless has been caught with the Member of another Honourable Member!!

    So is the Sunday Telegraph going to be explosive and are tomorrow’s revelations the ones which will lead to resignations and by-elections or was it all just hype.

    Finally I am making my party a hostage to fortune but as the Tories and LibDems are being kept for Monday/Tuesday, I dont believe there is anything much beyond what we have had leaked so far. Monday and Tuesday are about the worst days for newspaper sales.


  187. 182. DISWS. The taxpayer would pay for a single studio flat either in London or in the constituency. That’s hardly going to make anyone rich.


  188. If you want publicly owned accommodation in London for MPs, don’t forget that the Olympic Village will be available from late summer 2012. Designed with security in mind, too. Seems perfect.


  189. Can we bet on the BNP anywhere useful? I’ve seen the to win a seat at the GE and I think it’s a no-no, but what about the Euros?


  190. 175. “when that didn’t work he made a snide comment about it being a pity the Tories didn’t support the parliament when it was being legislated.”

    That part was fair comment. It’s difficult to take the Tories seriously when they eulogise the Scottish Parliament given that they were hell-bent on thwarting its very existence for the eighteen years they were in power.


  191. Margret Moran should resign her seat straight away!

    The Rot seems to have spread further than her seaside home by all accounts!!! :lol:


  192. 187 If someone has 50 studio flats in westminster and a guaranteed year round rent from the taxpayer it will make them very rich.

    That aside, I don’t agree. Either pay a big salary and no expenses or reform expenses and have the lot administered independantly.

    If you pay peanuts, you’ll get monkeys.


  193. 185 Well two Titans of the PB Cognoscenti in opposition then! Doesn’t happen often. I expect TV cameras to be there, recording the outcome. Will it be Jack that throws himself from the parapets of Jacobite Towers, or will you, Mike, end it all by cycling onto the roundabouts at Milton Keynes?

    It’s the betting event of the millenium!


  194. 185 Mike S. A really uninformed comment if I might say so Mike.

    Are you aware of the colourful local history of the seat, including the local electoral maths - Council, Mayor etc ??

    This is the only Lib Dem target in the region and every yellow perilist in spitting distance will be bar charting the seat till kingdom come.

    The latest straw is the news from Sean Fear that Robert Gordon has done the chicken run from the area for a safer Conservative perch.

    Know you seat Mike !! My ARSE is finely tuned to this one. :-)


  195. Sean Fear - your comment upthread echoes the Henry Kissinger one “Ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad name.”

    Hopefully its not 90% of MPs who have grossly misused the system, though it could be that 90% have over the course of last 5 years made one or two poor claims. The ones I want punished because they have been dishonest with intent are McNulty claim for a house he didn’t live in, Moran flipping her homes to get taxpayer to cover big bills, Jacqui claiming her sisters home as her main house, Darling flipping homes annually to gauge as much as he could, Hoon the same, Cohen financing his retirement plans, Uddin living in Housing Association property and claiming on a flat she owns but doesn’t live in.

    Jack Straw needs to explain how his claims couldn’t be backed up by either his direct debit payments or the council tax demand - thats not oversight for 5 years, sorry

    The greedy like Brown claiming Sky and light bulbs, Prescott claiming maximum food allowance just showing themselves as using their offices for advantage, should be exposed and let their electors judge.

    Gordon Brown claiming for sky subscriptions and light bulbs


  196. I see Ben Bradshaw is claiming that he is being subjected to a homophobic smear because his mortgage details have been revealed.

    None of them are learning


  197. The ST may be the edition which draws the lynch mob together for the mega-troughers with the Ballses and Hoon and the Wintertons and, naturally, that well known ex-Tory MP with the witless offspring.

    One or two may be added, such as a couple of London MPs who live together but both claim allowances?

    Nuclear winter for the Wintertons with a bit of luck. End of another couple of dinosaurs.

    Maude with any other notable naughty Tory and LDs and a couple of Scots for Monday?


  198. 184. “I’m sure it’s possible to be racist and honest.”

    But what about being honest about the full extent of their racism? Nick Griffin’s secretly filmed line, when he pointed to his white skin and said “that is my identity” - I can’t remember him saying anything like that when he knew the cameras were on him.


  199. O/T, on Wednesday I had the most civilised operation I have ever had. I went into Dumfries and Galloway Royal Infirmary for an operation to remove a cyst on my eyeball. A very nice and attractive nurse (an English lassie with blonde hair and blue eyes) took me through the admin, brought me into the waiting room, and offered tea or coffee. She came back dressed for the operating theatre, and took me into the the waiting area, where she asked me what kind of music I liked. I said I liked soft classical music, and she said that was no problem, and told me she would be holding my hand all through the operation, as a means of communciation, and I had to squeeze her hand if I felt any pain (unfortunately the days when lovely young nurses held my hand voluntarily are long in the past :O(, but I did enjoy it). When I was wheeled into the operating theatre, there was some gentle music by Bach playing over the sound system. After the operation, I was taken back out and offered more tea or coffee. Aye, the NHS in Scotland has a lot going for it!


  200. b. I like the idea of the Olympic village for the out of town MPs. Great idea.


  201. 184. EdP. I think it is plausible that they might do disproportionately well in these coming elections. However, politicians running around in panic (much as Corporal Jones in Dad’s army does) and sitting their wringing their hands and bemoaning the BNP’s potential success is not the way to address what now is generally recognised as a realistic threat.

    Now if they are a realistic threat then they should be treated as such instead of people hoping they will just disappear if they ignore them.

    The BNP’s proposals, if people bother to take a look at them, are not only transparently racist but transparently authoritarian and transparently economically illiterate (basically they are Nationalist Socialists). They can be dispatched simply by dismembering their policy. They would be a complete disaster for this country, so politicians should tell people exactly that.


  202. 200 they are never going to house the entire legislature in one easy-to-nuke locality.


  203. 192 ‘Either pay a big salary and no expenses or reform expenses and have the lot administered independantly.’

    Go for the former, but not excessive, and force MP’s to live within their means. Learning some basic skills of financial management and budgeting would certainly prove useful when it comes to controlling government spending and the economy!


  204. For those of you concerned about “expenses fatigue” setting in amongst the electorate, two pieces of anecdotal evidence.

    1. Walked into a papershop in a distinctively inner-city part of London. No copies of the Telegraph left; a few Times and Guardians (lots of Mail/Sun).

    2. This story is still top of BBC’s most read list.


  205. 202 by which I mean you either have to spend a fortune on security and waste the rest of the site, or you risk an easy hit terrrorist outrage crippling the legislature


  206. I have never been to Watford so won’t comment on the betting. However in general terms I err to Mike’s line of thinking. I’ll be very difficult not to get squeezed in a 3 way marginal with (a) a change narrative of this magnitude (b) a national conservative lead as large as the one that the polls are now showing.

    I am aware of the strength of the Watford party and the USP that Ian Oakley gives them but I fear it won’t be enough.


  207. 203 £80k should cover it. £150k for cabinet positions


  208. 200 Knock it off, Witan. It’s only three stops down the Central Line from me. I don’t want that shower around here. Might affect the property prices. :-(


  209. 204. Wibbler. I think it will be very bad for Labour. Unless some serious dirt comes out on the Tories and the LibDems, the main emphasis of the story is about ministers. And someone should tell Woolas that he isnt doing himself any favours appearing on the media. People no longer care what the details are and if Woolas isnt careful, he will find himself on the list of the worst 4 or 5 troughers on the general principle that there is no smoke without fire.


  210. 205.Next you’ll be arguing we shouldn’t have a parliament at all…all sitting ducks etc….although the government seems to agree given MPs are about to have one of the longest recesses ever.


  211. Dyed intws Why not, they put them in one conveniently bombable office block next door to the work place.

    The dispersal model works for key personnel such as ministers, the monarch, key planners but not for MPs. Lose one lot and there are always more available.


  212. 207. DISWS. £80K. We’d never get rid of the useless ones. They’d hang around forever, doing the party’s bidding.


  213. James Forsyth - Alastair Campbell: Brown should have taken Cameron up on his offer of talks over expenses

    “Interesting post from Alastair Campbell on this scandal:

    “A few weeks ago, when the expenses row was simmering not boiling, David Cameron suggested to Gordon Brown that he and Nick Clegg (the leader of the Liberal Democrats) get together and try to work out a new system.

    Of course there may have been politics in there. He is the Leader of the Opposition after all. But in hindsight, it might have been a good move.”

    Brown has got the politics of this whole issue horribly wrong. He waited way too long to address it then did so in a way that was bound to alienate the opposition parties and his own backbenchers. His behaviour in the meeting with Clegg and Cameron that followed his YouTube disaster seems to have had the effect of making relations between the two opposition leaders much warmer. It’s yet another fine mess that Gordon has got himself into.”


  214. 210 parliament has a hefty security arrangement around it - thats the point - lumping them all in a dorm will just mean another massive security expense.


  215. ptp you could be their jailer and make sure no hanky panky takes place.


  216. 209. “Unless some serious dirt comes out on the Tories and the LibDems…”

    It’s almost bound to, though, isn’t it? If millionaire Barbara Follett had her snout in the trough I see no reason why the odd millionaire Tory won’t have done the same.


  217. 202. But I have dreams, not of nuking (hell, if London got nuked they’d be clinkers anyway) but of flaming torches and pitch-forks at the gate as the enraged electorate let them know what they thought of say, the Finance Bill. Instant feedback. No need for focus groups. Lovely.


  218. re 206. There’s two things the LDs need in order to win seats next time - one to be be able to present themselves as the main challenger to Labour and to have a strong capability for the ground campaign. Although the Oakley business sounds awful for the Tories I think it will be largely forgotten about by polling day. It’s going to be mighty hard for the LDs to present themselves as the challenger.

    In general don’t bet on the LDs in 3-way marginals.

    Pile on in seats like Brent Central where the Tories are nowhere and you know that the Teather-led campaign will be hugely effective.


  219. 201 ‘They would be a complete disaster for this country, so politicians should tell people exactly that.’

    Bit of a problem there. Do you really think that after the expenses scandal, and the revelations about all the other schemes and scams, that the public at large are going to believe ANYTHING that incumbent politicians tell them?

    ‘MP X says don’t vote for Y, he’s dishonest, and racist and hides his true plans for the UK?’

    ‘MP X who claimed £350 for dishcloths last year? I don’t believe him, he’s a proven liar and fiddler. He’s only smearing the other candidate that so he can keep his face in the trough’


  220. 213 Campbell’s post is a good one, not particularly partisan, good advice.

    http://www.alastaircampbell.org/blog.php?id=99

    was amused that he felt it necessary to say who Nick Clegg was.


  221. 214.Maybe MPs should have less security, there views on crime might be altered somewhat.


  222. The FSA in regualting financial services business requires companies to “treat customers fairly” there are NO rules about what treating customers fairly means. But if the FSA decides that a firm is not treating customers fairly it can and does fine the company and sometime the directors substantial sums of money. They have not broken any specific rule they have broken the overall requirement to treat customers fairly. Why should politicians be able to say well it is within the specific rules when it breaks to overarching principle that is set out in the rules.


  223. 201. The BNP’s policies are “transparently authoritarian and transparently economically illiterate”.

    Past experience suggests that large sections of the British electorate will take pretty kindly to that…


  224. 212 honestly Ken, how many people are going to be attracted to £30k a year in central London? These people have to vote on the fate of the nation, £30k in central London is way below the average surely?
    As for ‘never get rid of’ - speak to the electorate.


  225. 208 - Well said, the Docklands Light Railway is temperamental enough without that crowd impeding my travel to work. :lol:
    I’d favour a housing allowance equal to the average rent for a one bedroom flat in London, this can then be added to by an MP’s own money or used as a contribution toward a mortgage. Any MP representing a Greater London constituency gets a sum equal to a 6 zone travelcard and reimbursement of taxi fares from HoC to one pre-registered address for any journey starting after 10.30 pm.


  226. 186. Easterross. Re the Honourable Member for Shagging Senseless you forgot to mention another rumoured little morsel. The possibility that both the aforementioned Honourable member and the associated Honourable Member (for Shagnastybottom-on-sea perhaps?) both claimed for the Hotel room they spent their nights of forbidden bliss in. Not only is it morally dubious but there is a whiff of criminality there as well.


  227. Margaret Moran seeking legal advice over claims in Daily Telegraph, Phil Woolas seeking seeking legal advice over claims in Telegraph, Michael Martin goes to court to prevent MPs expenses being made public…

    Where are these people getting the money from for all this legal advice? oh, silly me.


  228. 75 - Nadine Dorries praised the Scottish DNA system, but thought that they destroyed the DNA of convicted sex offenders.
    Steel went fairly easy on her.


  229. 215 Hmmm…never thought of that, Witan. Maybe the idea has some merit. :-)


  230. 221 trouble is, they wouldn’t face bricks trough the window or graffiti if security was lessened, but more likely some nutter killing them or a terrorist attack.
    Thats not a price worth paying to stop the expenses gravy train - you just reform the train rather than letting a few ‘get it’ so that the rest ‘get it’


  231. 218 Mike S. Don’t bet on the Tory in a three way marginal where they are in third place !!

    Never in modern political history have they won the seat !!

    Turn a deaf ear to Smithson in Watford - The Bookies Friend !!


  232. 216. Red Meteor May 9th, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    I think the thing that makes it worse for Labour is the fact that people like Follet are Millionaires, MP’s and Get Ministerial Allowances. Plus they have passed Legislation on things like making Financial Advisers Tip off the authorities on pain of six Months in clink for failure in regards to Tax Evasion and suspected Money Laundering.

    If any Tories have stupid claims I will condemn them them equally. Anything not to do with the job on the common sense basis like Pushchairs & Dry Rot removal in a home 100 miles from a seat and nothing to do with Parliament will get my full condemnation.


  233. 230.If the train is heading in the wrong direction get off it, don’t try and tinker with the track! I’m quite sure it would be cheaper to provide basic security for backbenchers in one or 2 locations rather than having 500 Follett solutions at £25,000 a pop.


  234. What strikes me is that with a few exceptions, those badly in the frame so far sit for constituencies which those of us in the more remote parts of the country would consider to be Outer London.

    Frankly any constituency within a 1 hour journey of Westminster should be excluded from an ALA unless the individual MPs can make a case to a new body comprising non-MPs with 1 MP nominated to sit on it to explain genuine issues which affect MPs.

    Most of the MPs from distant constituencies seem to have treated the expense scheme for what it is, a means to enable them to properly fulfill their duties including living Mon-Thur in London and Fri-Sun in their constituency homes (whether actually in their constituencies or not).

    Why dont they just adopt the Holyrood system? It is transparent, thorough and considered to be very tight.


  235. 224. DISWS. The point is that I would pay Committee chairs, Vice Chairs 100-150K, PUS 80K, MOS 150K, Ministers 180K+ on top of base.

    Say 100 on the government benches, 100 on opposition benches, 120 committee positions. Total 320 out of 650. So, as long as you are competent you get paid a lot more. Once you cease to be a bigwig, you get paid a lot less. The average pay for being in parliament should then rise to about 85-90K. That is plenty and the most competent ones will be able to get good jobs after that.

    The point about blockers isnt the electorate, it’s the party - some conservatives and some labour MPs are always elected, no matter how useless they are. The party hierarchy likes them because they always vote in line with the party, but they really are the worst sort of lobby fodder.


  236. 234. “Why dont they just adopt the Holyrood system? It is transparent, thorough and considered to be very tight.”

    Probably too many vested interests.


  237. 227. In retrospect the sacking (effectively) of Elizabeth Filkin meant there were no real constraints left on what MPs could get up to and too many started to fill their boots. It’s also fairly obvious that they never expected the reality of allowances and expenses to be exposed to public opprobrium.


  238. What’s the time on the Balls/Cooper fireworks countdown clock? It cannot be more than 7 hours until the print edition of The Telegraph hits the newspapers stand outside Charing Cross Station.

    Incidentally I recollect stories of Cooper being pelted with buns ‘Martin Salter’ style in her local supermarket. It’s surprising that there haven’t been any reports of similar attacks against other (dis)Honorable’ members of the House, by disgruntled members of the public. I guess they’re all keeping their heads down.


  239. 233 indeed, but if they are paid £80k flat with no expenses and left to fend for themselves, then there is no security cost at all.

    You could even do it as say £65k flat with a ‘not in london’ allowance - an escalating addition to the basic the further the constitueny is from Westminster, and no expenses except for the usual departmental or committee type ones, the sort of thing all employees would not be expected to pay for.


  240. 220.Ted, you are right, it is a good post with sound advice thrown in.
    “None of this excuses some of the excesses which have been exposed. I agree with Charles Clarke that it is probably sensible to find a way of getting all the expenses out ahead of the planned July 1 release date, rather than have the Telegraph control the agenda.”


  241. 235.Would increase patronage, more power for the executive as they could halve the pay of a real ‘honourable’ member who rebels against the government.


  242. 235. STV would solve that pretty effectively, though, Ken. Look at the Irish example - it’s far from perfect, but individual TDs can get booted out quite easily even if their party is fairly popular.


  243. 227.”Michael Martin goes to court to prevent MPs expenses being made public…”

    Can you elaborate on that, I have missed this?


  244. I wonder if the NOTW will have the Bonking Expenses exposesure!

    It will be interesting to see which Ministers were Bonking Whom! :smile:


  245. 235 so 50% of the house earn buggar all with no prospect of earning more as there are only 320 positions? Its fine as long as 330 are useless, but then the 330 replacing them get paid buggar all as well.
    What happens when the house is full of able people? We lose 330 excellent MPs because we are paying them peanuts?

    200 high salaries are also at the whim of 2 MPs - the PM and the Leader of HMO


  246. 231.”Never in modern political history have they won the seat !!”

    I thought that New Labour and the Libdems rewrote history back on a fateful day in May 97′ when the Conservatives went into meltdown? :D


  247. 219.EdP Granted it is a problem which is why I agree with Alistair Campbell’s most recent post (I can’t believe I’m saying that). Our precious MP’s need to bite the bullet and address the expenses issue comprehensively bloody quickly (sacrificing those most guilty as part of that) before it takes further hold.

    That said, I’m not overly concerned about a few nutters from the BNP going over to join a whole gaggle of nutters in Brussels (they’re welcome to Griffin). What I’m concerned about is they don’t get a serious foothold in this country for the next General Election.


  248. 218 - If you’re in need of more articles may I suggest you re-post the Wales Euros as a new thread again today. It did deserve its own analysis and was rather overtaken by events.


  249. On the Smithson v Jack W tissue…..Mike ticked up the Tories when they were slight odds against (I think) and certainly not odds on and JackW has gone for the Lib Dems at 2-1/7-4.
    Provided Labour don’t win the Seat I don’t see a problem.


  250. 241. chris_g00. Which is why the committee positions would have to allocated in a way that limited party influence. Ministers etc would be expected to toe the government line. Ditto Shadows. Real rebels would specialise in running scrutiny committees. Yes, it might be bad for a real honourable member who left government, but hopefully they would then get a committee position.

    For example, committee positions could be allocated on the basis of a secret ballot of all MPs excluding members of the government. It would then allow the opposition to back the most competent scrutineers from the government side.


  251. 242.Not a fan of STV, and it doesn’t do what it says on the tin either. Its a Libdem wheeze much over hyped.


  252. Then again, as I have said a number of times, there are hundreds of “Grace and Favour” apartments within the grounds of the various Royal Palaces and Government buildings in and around Central London.

    Tony Blair put pressure on the Queen to evict members of her extended family and retired courtiers from such apartments. I bet there are more than enough to provide accommodation for all those MPs who either cant or dont want to pay for their own London accommodation and such grace and favour accommodation has the added advantage that it is generally already behind security walls or fencing.


  253. 248 It does but tonight could be poll and/or Balls/Copper et al. Monday might be a good day as there will be no excitement in the Tory/Lib Dem revelations (hopes desperately)


  254. 250.Which PM would agree with that? I agree in an ideal world select committees would be radically overhauled, I like the US system of seniority, rather than a popularity contest.


  255. 234. Easterross. It can be reasonably justified that Crystal Palace is about an hour away from Westminster by public transport. Such a concept would reduce the number of constituencies considered as ‘London’ constituencies.


  256. 231 I’m not sure if the same applied to Labour before 97 but certainly there are several examples where they leapt from much further back in 3rd than the Tories are in Watford eg Hastings and Conwy to win. If the Tories are in landslide territory I don’t see why Watford cannot be won by them.


  257. 245. DISWS. Erm, well do you think that the present system has managed to attract 650 competent MPs? Would paying them all 100K make them competent? We already have an excess of applicants, but not all of them are competent and it is in the interest of the parties that some of them are lobby fodder.

    This way, new blood could challenge for positions more easily. Only the competent (who thought they could make it) or the dedicated (who didnt care) would survive.

    In the flat rate 100K system, lots of useless time servers would get positions.


  258. @201 jsfl:

    “They {BNP}can be dispatched simply by dismembering their policy. They would be a complete disaster for this country, so politicians should tell people exactly that.”

    I quite often find myself in agreement with you, but this just isn’t going to work.

    The BNP are quite correct in describing their economic policy as “old labour”. That I think is one of the reasons for their growing success with the old labour voters in the labour rotten boroughs.

    Any future (non blairite) labour politician is going to have real problems opposing it because, deep down, that is “what I came into politics to achieve”.

    http://bnp.org.uk/policies/economy/


  259. 254. DISWS. No. seniority entrenches which is bad. Popularity based on competence would be sensible especially if the ruling government was unable to vote.


  260. 259.Since when was popularity based on competence?


  261. The 1971 guidelines seem to clearly rule out a new kitchen then, or barbecues, or a patio heaters

    Or in fact MOST of what this appalling bunch of shysters have claimed for.

    Yuck.


  262. 246 ChristinaD. Will the Tories do it ??? … Not in Watford !!!


  263. 257 I disagree. These people vote to send us to war and such like and you want to pay a voting majority of them £30k a year and expect such decisions to be taken with the gravity they require?

    With respect, I wholeheartedly disagree with the figure of £30k as in any way proportionate or reasonable.


  264. 260. chris_g00. A vote which gave weight to the opposition and non government members of the ruling party would have a good incentive to vote in the most competent overseer of committees to hold the government to account. (I hope).


  265. Does anyone know how old Phil Woolas’s children are? are they still in nappies??


  266. The Speaker’s Apartments alone could probably covert into about half a dozen smaller apartments. They could have either the equivalent of a bed/sitting room with shower room and share a sitting room and kitchen or they could all have small flats.

    At the beginning of each parliament they could have a number of single person flats, flats large enough for a couple and some large enough for families.

    After all that is what Blair did with the flats at No 10 and No 11 Downing St. Blair + family went into No 11 and the bachelor Brown went into the smaller flat in No 10.

    There are all the flats etc in the Admiralty Buldings, the F.O. buildings and countless other government buildings. Many of them lie empty and we are paying lots of money to maintain them anyway.


  267. 258. Calais:

    I agree that it is old Labour. But I would argue that old Labour has always resulted in economic disaster and is now so outdated it should be dispatched to the political dustbin of the 20th Century.

    The reality is that such centralist political ethos just cannot succeed given the size of the population and complexities of our society. It can no longer run in an economically efficient manner and will always accrue economic diseconomies of scale that are unsustainable and will always lead us to the verge of bankruptcy.

    The failure of BNP and the current Labour Government (which is economically old Labour in much of its approach) is the result of their basic economic illiteracy.


  268. 262 See 256. Should Labour have done it in seats like that? True there were also seats where the Lib Dems did win as expected and it would hardly be a surpise if they gained Watford. But I don’t see why you are so cast iron about it. Mr Smithson is just suggesting that if the Tories do gain a landslide those odds represent value on them. I think he’s right.


  269. 264.On the contrary, politicians tend to practice politics!


  270. 185 Watford is one of my six “dual favourite” bets (on the Tories and LDs), OK it may only represent a 17% p.a. return, but that’s umpteen times what the banks pay and I sleep nights!


  271. 266 Easterross - the issue is transparency & trust. CCHQ provided ConHome with the Tory proposals, nothing radical or trying to punish MPs but simple clear rules, transparency of claims.

    - MPs living within a reasonable distance of the Commons should not be able to claim.
    - MPs who co-habit could only claim once (extraordinary that this rule should be necessary).
    - Mandatory annual public declarations by MPs justifying designation of primary and additional home (including all relevant details – i.e. parents’/family home).
    - MPs would not be able to claim for stamp duty, TV bills, furniture or decorations.
    - All claims and receipts must be published online within 28 days. Receipts would be required for all claims.
    - The abolition of the £10,000pa Communications Allowance.
    - No Conservative MP with a grace-and-favour residence should be able to claim the second homes allowance.
    - MPs’ staff should be employed centrally by the House of Commons.
    - Greater transparency on remuneration from second jobs and tighter controls on ex-Ministers taking jobs.
    - Independent spot-checks and audits of expenses.

    If those had been in place for last few years we wouldn’t be arguing about punishing MPs.


  272. 263. There was no shortage of people willing to be MPs even when the job was unpaid. Nor would there be if their salaries were sharply curbed.

    As for the idea that the quality of MPs would fall, a quick look around the current house would suggest we must be pretty close to the bottom of the barrel already.

    Individuals of the calibre of Jacqui Smith and Phil Woolas detered from becoming MPs…what a f***ing shame.


  273. 263. DISWS. At least a significant majority of those on 30K would expect that their salary will rise - they are competent, which is why they have chosen this career path. There would be very few who would be elected because they thought they could only be a backbench hack who was only worth 30K. Most expect to be earning 100K.

    Those who would be elected would be those who believed that they had something to offer or who believed in service. I would expect them to give just as much weight to their deliberations on a declaration of war as the present bunch of incumbents. The soldiers who fight and die, fight for less than 30K. To make money a yardstick of the effort put into debate strikes me as odd.


  274. Anecdote: Went to the barbers to get my haircut today and was reading PB on my Blackberry when my ears picked up. One of the barbers who looked to be in his mid-20s and with a rather “laddish” accent was saying the following. “Yeah, type Daniel Hannan into YouTube. For 3 minutes he tells Gordon Brown exactly what we all want to tell him”. Didn’t strike me as a Conservative voter.

    I think there is a lot of anti-Gordon Brown feeling out there and those “missing” Conservative voters from the last 3 general elections are suddenly going to reappear.


  275. “Margaret Moran seeking legal advice over claims in Daily Telegraph, Phil Woolas seeking seeking legal advice over claims in Telegraph.”

    I imagine that their legal advisors will tell them that a quick plea of guilty should get them a reduced sentence.

    256 I quite agree. *If* the outcome reflects current opinion polls, the Conservatives will gain Watford without much difficulty.


  276. 256. Punter: This is the key article in the Observer from 27 April 1997, which showed Labour within touching distance in Hastings and Rye, St Albans, and other constituencies which it had previously not been regarded as competitive in. Apologies for the long post!

    ELECTION 97: CABINET CULL IN PROSPECT IF VOTERS TAKE TACTICAL ROUTE
    Peter Kellner. From The Observer - April 27, 1997.

    THE BIGGEST ever election campaign opinion-poll operation undertaken in Britain shows the Conservatives could lose even more heavily on Thursday than the nationwide opinion polls indicate. For the swing against them is significantly higher in the seats they are defending than in the rest of the country. Last week, ICM interviewed about 700 voters in each of 13 seats that the Conservatives are defending. ICM also conducted surveys in three further seats for Scotland on Sunday. The telephone surveys started on Monday evening and were completed yesterday morning. Under normal circumstances, the Tories would hope to hold on to all 16 seats. Nine are being defended by Cabinet Ministers; the other seven are seats that would normally be considered safe, but might fall if enough non-Conservative voters cast their ballots tactically for the best-placed opposition candidate.

    The figures on the map show the results of ICM’s survey for each of the 16 seats. As usual, ICM has provided adjusted figures, designed to take account of ’shy Tories’ who are reluctant to admit their allegiance. In most of the 16 seats, the figures published on this page show higher Tory support, and lower Labour support, than the raw figures. At present, Labour is clearly ahead in six of the 16 seats, the Scottish Nationalists in one. A further seven are knife-edge contests in which tactical voting could be decisive. In only two are the Tories clearly ahead. And in one of those two - Folkestone & Hythe, being defended by Michael Howard, the Home Secretary - the Tories look like being saved because the anti-Conservative vote is divided equally between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

    Folkestone is also noteworthy for the strong showing of John Aspinall, of the Referendum Party. At 9 per cent, his is the highest figure for any Referendum Party candidate so far recorded in any poll in this campaign.

    The figures relating to other Cabinet Ministers are more clear-cut. Labour is ahead in Bristol West (William Waldegrave’s seat), Edinburgh Pentlands (Malcolm Rifkind) and Stirling (Michael Forsyth). The SNP holds a clear lead in Galloway and Upper Nithsdale (Ian Lang).

    Labour and the Tories are running neck-and-neck in the seats of another four Cabinet Ministers: Braintree (Tony Newton), Enfield Southgate (Michael Portillo), Kettering (Roger Freeman) and Norfolk South-West (Gillian Shephard).

    In each of those seats the Liberal Democrats are trailing a long way behind in third place. In each, ICM asked Lib Dem supporters how they would vote if it were clear that the only parties with a realistic chance of winning were Labour or the Conservatives. In every case, enough Liberal Democrat supporters said they were willing to vote Labour rather than Tory.

    The issue now is whether enough Lib Dem supporters in Braintree, Southgate, Kettering and Norfolk South-West understand the power they wield. If they do, and in turn vote Labour, then the biggest cull of Cabinet Ministers this century moves from a possibility to a probability. Equally, of course, it is open to local Tory campaigners to try to persuade Lib Dem supporters to vote for their local Minister to keep Labour out.

    In five of the other seven seats polled by ICM, the figures clarify the tactical position. Labour holds clear leads in St Albans, Aberdeen South and Hastings & Rye, in each case leapfrogging from third to first place.

    In Ludlow, Labour has overtaken the Liberal Democrats to be positioned in second place to Christopher Gill, one of the Tories’ most outspoken Eurosceptics. However, Mr Gill’s support has slipped by only seven points since 1992, and he should win unless Lib Dem support collapses.

    Conversely, Taunton is a neck-and-neck race between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats, who will be looking to squeeze the Labour vote (currently 19 per cent) to ensure victory.

    This leaves two seats which look like nail-biting three-way contests: Bridgwater (being defended by Tom King, the former Cabinet Minister) and Colchester. In both seats, all three main parties have a chance of victory.

    As worrying for the Tories as ICM’s voting figures are the answers to another question asked in all 16 seats: which parties had made direct contact with the voters at home?

    Labour’s efforts in St Albans seem to have been most effective: it has contacted 28 per cent of local voters, followed by the Liberal Democrats in Colchester (27), Labour in Hastings & Rye (25 per cent), Labour in Bristol West (24) and the Liberal Democrats in Hastings (24).

    In only one of the 16 seats did the Tory contact rate exceed 20 per cent - Colchester (23). In seven seats, including those being defended by Ian Lang, Malcolm Rifkind, Tony Newton, Michael Portillo, Gillian Shephard and Roger Freeman, the Tory contact rate is less than 10 per cent. Michael Forsyth’s Stirling constituency does a little better, with 13 per cent - but Labour is easily ahead even there, with 23.

    Only Michael Howard’s constituency party beats its rivals. Folkestone Conservatives have contacted 14 per cent of local voters, compared with the Lib Dems’ 11 and Labour’s 7.


  277. 272 Not all MPs are Jacqui Smith or Phil Woolas though.

    If you fans of paying MPs f all can find support for it then good luck to you, I don’t think it is the right way forward myself.


  278. 267 jsfl:

    Agree with all that.

    Labour’s actual economic policy (and BNPs proposed) = disaster for the british people..

    But it just won’t fly as a means of persuading voters who think labours economic policy is best for them and their families. And there are millions of them, its a big chunk of their core vote.

    They are not persuadeable by anything short of cancellation of the the social security budget by unanimous vote of the plp.


  279. 269. Chris_g00. Yes, and in a situation where the opposition and the backbenchers from the government side were voting, you’d expect the best monitors to be elected to run committees because 1)Politically it would be sensible for the Opposition for the best guy to be doing oversight. 2)As it’s a secret ballot, the backbenchers gain nothing from voting for a government stooge, but electing the competent guy is sensible. Anything that makes Ministers weaker (and thus gives the backbenchers more opportunity to be promoted) makes sense for an ambitious backbencher.


  280. 277. I’m struggling to think of any of the good ones who would be deterred by Ken’s scheme, or something similar.


  281. 273 go for it then, find support in the public and have your majority of MPs paid £30k. I think you, and the country, will regret it. But if that is the will of the electorate when it comes to it….


  282. 277. DISWS. Most Labour MPs are less competent than Woolas or Jacqui Smith. That’s why they are ministers. My model would lead to a higher average pay, but lower starting pay and incentives to perform. Your model of higher pay simply doesnt give the right incentives.


  283. 262.JackW, my knowledge of Watford extends to a certain exuberant poster on here being a supporter of their footie team. Didn’t the previous Conservative candidate have to stand down because his horrendous and shocking behaviour, or have I got it wrong?

    If the Scottish elections are any guide to the next GE, its going to be a roller coaster of surprises, and with some very odds swings in some local areas which might see a party in the ascendancy getting an extra boost which might leapfrog them up the order. I fully expect to see one or two candidates giving shocked acceptance speeches as the election night unfolds. :wink:


  284. 281 MPs managed on less (even allowing for inflation) in the past.


  285. Sky talking about a poll showing decline in public trust in MPs…. not sure if there are voting figs


  286. Sky news just referred to new poll showing trust in pols has crumbled, anyone got any details?


  287. 282. The current set up has actually encouraged talentless dross into the Commons, where said dross can achieve a level of power and remuneration unavailable outside.


  288. 279.First, no government would do it
    Second, why would a government MP in a marginal vote for MORE scrutiny of their own government?
    Third, the likes of Nicholas Winterton as Chairman of the Health Committee was lapped up by Labour MPs but in effect give him power without responsibilty (he didn’t need to raise the taxes that would pay for the increased NHS spending he advocated)
    Fourth, One mans government stooge is another mans loyal party man


  289. 275 Sean F. It’s that sort of “UNS thinking” that helps to keep Mrs Jack W well shod !!

    I remember well in 2005 all and sundry saying Ian Dale was a shoe-in for the Tories in North Norfolk and Ooppps he lost by 10,000 is now a media tart !!

    Even in a landslide seats do not perform equally and evenly.


  290. 280. runnymede. They wouldnt. And also only the most competent candidates would come forward - those who thought they could make it. We’d have fewer incompetents for certain.


  291. Poll is NOTW - 91% say expenses must be publushed now and given over to an indpendant body.


  292. 282. Ken, agree ,just giving more money to idiots will not improve anything ,it needs a clear out and strict rules applied.


  293. 290. I agree 100%.


  294. 289 I think he’s far too confident that the Tories would win Watford even in those circumstances. OTOH I think you’re far too confident that they wouldn’t. Care to explain.


  295. Listened to R5 as been driving about today, not one mention of Ben Bradshaw on their bulletins (that I have heard, and listened to about 5hrs today off and on), everybody else including “I’ll sue you” Woolas, but not Bradshaw even those his looks like fraud to me, rather than oh I allowed a choccy bar on the tax payer, why not.

    Now remind me, who does Bradshaw’s other half work for?

    The one they keep running with is Follett, even her crime is bad, really bad, but she doesn’t claim the max expenses. In comparison to some of the others named, which are just criminal and I mean criminal, as they are fraud, she isn’t the “worst” offender so far. Don’t think it is cos she is stinking rich do you?


  296. 278. Calais:

    Basically you are suggesting they are unreachable.

    I realise that but what can you do except bang the message in time and time again (despite the Labour Party protestations), highlight how Labour has duped them time and time again (e.g. the latest poverty position), and attempt to provide the economic measures when in power which make them better off and convince them.

    At the end of the day ‘You can lead a horse to water……’


  297. LOL NOTW have a competition:

    http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/promotions/295477/LIVE-FREE-FOR-A-YEAR-A-credit-crunch-busting-prize-worth-pound75000.html


  298. 288. Chris_g00. I’m not saying that a government would do it. I’m saying it would be far better a model. The point is that a party stooge or party man can get promoted within the party. You don’t seem to understand the role of the select committee - it’s their job to do oversight and watch for (and cause) problems for the government. The fact that they dont have to raise taxes isnt the issue.


  299. STV isn’t a “Lib Dem” wheeze. I vote Lib Dem (or Green), when I do, because they, currently, support STV. I don’t vote Labour or Tory because they oppose it,


  300. 295. He used to work for them himself, as well.


  301. 289 In a landslide, everything does tend to fall.

    Suppose the next election were something like Con 37%, Lab 32%, LD 23%, I would expect the Lib Dems to win Watford, even though UNS would imply a Conservative gain.

    But if it’s something like Con 44%, Lab 27%, LD 20%, the Conservatives will win Watford.


  302. 283 ChristinaD. Correct. He was “smeargate” made real at a local level. Watford Tories are a mess. Politically and organizationally they don’t know if they’re “arfur or marfur”.

    In contrast the yellow peril are rounding up residual Tory support in the seat and picking off their councillors at will. The Lib Dem also won the mayoralty by a distance. As for Labour locally, they show all the deftness and finess of their national colleagues !!


  303. Wonder if Nick Griffin is out flat hunting in Brussels this weekend?


  304. FULHAM 3 VILLA 1

    Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!!!!


  305. 287. runnymede. As opposed to the days when no one was paid, when it encouraged talentless rich dross into the house of commons.


  306. 300 Sean F. If UNS were all pervasive the Lib Dems wouldn’t have doubled their seats in the 97 landslide with a slightly reduced share of the vote from 1992.

    Watford voters have already identified how to rid the seat of Labour and it isn’t the Tories.


  307. 297. Thankyou for explaining what a select committee is. I’ll make the point again to see if you get it. If I were a Labour MP in 1992 would I vote for Nicholas Winterton to be chairman of the Health Select Committee out of some grand public spiritedness or, would I have seen the bad headlines he caused his own side & reckon that he might just inflict more damage, & thereby improve my own chances of being re-elected.

    The idea that politics would be removed from the system you propose, is naive at best.


  308. 305 Care to answer 256? I just don’t see what makes you so certain. I doubt Labour for instance had much in the way of organisation in those seats.


  309. A PM with nefarious motives would be able to gain some willing acolytes when he offers 6x ther current salary in return for their support in ‘certain aims’


  310. 307 - Surely 305 does answer that point? The fact that the Lib Dems have targeted it makes a huge difference. I agree with Jack on this one, Watford is much more likely to go yellow than blue.


  311. Is this threat to sue over what seem to be open and shut claims, an attempt to get the Telegraph to bottle the Sunday splash?


  312. 291.”Poll is NOTW - 91% say expenses must be publushed now and given over to an indpendant body.”

    If only they had followed Holyrood a few years ago when we had our MSP’s expenses published and put under public scrutiny. They could have saved themselves some real damage now. And that is where the Labour party really will take that extra hit, they have been in power over the last 12 years, and with stonking majorities too. They could have taken the credit for cleaning this system up and making it more transparent, instead they are left running around TV/radio stations bleating about a newspaper having a Tory agenda by leading with their hall of shame first.


  313. 303 MTF.Well done again today.To think I was almost five figures RED if they got RELEGATED !


  314. 305. As it would only take a 2% swing from Labour to Conservative for the latter to win the seat, that is clearly nonsense.


  315. Hello hello hello, what have we here,

    http://www.order-order.com/2009/05/coming-tomorrow-how-to-fiddle-2-million-on-expenses-tax-free-within-the-rules/


  316. 309 All things being equal I agree. He however seems to be saying that there is no way at the Tories can win. In a Tory landslide scenario I don’t see how that could be right.


  317. 311. Indeed that Labour excuse about it being a conservative paper is really a double edged sword. So conservatives are against sleaze are they? Isn’t that terrible?


  318. 59 - some real stinkers in those example claims.

    BTW I saw in there that at least one Lib Dem MP claimed Sky Sports on expenses (well, if its good enough for Gordo…)


  319. 305.JackW, there are going to be a bunch of voters in that seat come GE day, and they will have the option of voting for those nice hard working local Libdems or a Conservative who might help kick the current government out. I don’t know which way they will swing, in fact unlike you and Mike, I wouldn’t touch this seat in a betting market.


  320. 306. Chris_g00. I made the point because you were going on about taxes and because of the mention of party stooges.

    I don’t deny that in some cases there will be advantage to be gained from voting in an unpleasant character as head of a committee, but just as often there would be advantage to be gained from voting in a competent overseer of a committee. You cannot put forward one example and then extrapolate and say “it wont work”. It might not work, but a single counter factual is not an argument.

    If an MP were in a marginal seat, maybe he would prefer the most pro-government (or anti-government) chairman. But, how much impact does a single committee have? How much would it improve his chances of becoming a government minister if less competent ones are dragged down by good committees? The relationships are complex and I put forward some ideas about how it might work. You’re right that partisan party politics does intrude, but it isnt a final answer.


  321. 307 Punter. There are certain seats that buck trends. Seats where the electorate have evolved a slightly higher electoral antenae. They often have the Lib Dems as part of the equation.

    All the reliable evidence we have is that it is the Lib Dems who are the clearest front runners for the seat. I’m tempted to say all we need now is for the Tory PPC to be charged by the plods and convicted in the courts …. Ooppss already happened !!

    Other similiar seats are Eastleigh and Westmorland (The North Norfolk of 2010).


  322. 317 - “I wouldn’t touch this seat in a betting market”

    But these are the seats where you make your money ;)


  323. 306, 318, etc Ken’s idea sounds like it might work, and would almost certainly be better than what we have now. It wouldn’t be perfect, because it involves humans (and possibly some labour MPs as well!)

    I’m not at all convinced by the arguements that we need to pay MPs more - there’s plenty of competition to get in at the moment, and they can’t all be of Jaquiboots standard.


  324. I’m a bit nervous regarding Watford, I invested £100 on the Lib Dems after reading PtP’s and JackW confident opinions, but Mr Smithson also seems pretty confident! Probably wouldnt do it if I had my time again. Oh well I’ll survive


  325. 312 runnymede. Why have the Watford Tories collapsed so dramatically locally since 2005 ??

    317 ChristinaD. I’m as sure about Watford as I was about the US Elections and all the recent by-elections. The ARSE will not be found wanting.


  326. 320.No doubt, but I am just pointing out that the result could have no rhyme or reason to it when you consider the local state of the parties.


  327. 279.”and in a situation where the opposition and the backbenchers from the government side were voting, you’d expect the best monitors to be elected to run committees”

    318.”I don’t deny that in some cases there will be advantage to be gained from voting in an unpleasant character as head of a committee”

    enough.


  328. Heres the detail on the News of the Worlds poll;

    http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/298979/MP-EXPENSES-SCANDAL-BATTERS-BROWN.html

    No voting intention figures included and a rather small sample of just 500.


  329. re 289. In 2005 I was saying that Dale did not have a chance in North Norfolk and made a lot backing the Lib Dems.

    I got on the Tories in Watford at 5/4 and think it’s a good bet.


  330. 322 noisy summer. Don’t go all weak kneed at the first sign of grapeshot old chap.

    Indeed all the nay-sayers will help to keep the odds better !!


  331. Re: Watford.

    Anecdote, but an important one.

    Watch a few Cameron Directs. He got a much harder time in Watford than pretty much anywhere else.


  332. 323. Fake Scots aristocrat - why did Chris Huhne nearly lose at Eastleigh in 2005 despite the dominance of his party at the local level?


  333. 323.JackW, if there is one thing I learnt from the Scottish elections, its that the state of a local party can indeed have diddle squat to do with the final result sometimes. Unlike the locals, the focus can be swayed by the national campaign the parties run and a mood for change at the top of government. Ask the SNP. :wink:


  334. 329.Did the locals turn out to the event in any great numbers?


  335. Strikes me this NOW poll is a sort of “Is the Pope Catholic” question. The only interesting thing is who are the 9% who dont agree, and why?


  336. 325. Chris_g00. An exception is not a rule. If you cannot understand that, more fool you. Enough.


  337. 327 Mike S. Are you on the Watford Tories on the basis of UNS ? …. if not what persaudes you that the moribund local Conservatives have a prayer against one of the sharpest local Lib Dem organizations in the country ??


  338. 333 - Maybe they were MP’s? :-)


  339. 334. OK Mystic Meg, exceptional post btw ;o)


  340. 326. I’m entertained by the 3% of people whose opinion of Brown has gone UP since Chocosantagate.

    Actually, I’ve thought of a new name for this slew of revelations; following news that the Welsh minister had a boiler installed for several grand cause the last one was too efficient, we should call this scandal Too-hot-water-gate.

    Da-bum-tish. I’m also available for weddings.


  341. When does Watford normally declare on GE night? Could be an interesting one for the discussion if it’s early however it goes.


  342. Personally I think the Monster Raving Loony’s are in with a good chance in Watford; stuff the other three parties ;-)


  343. @332 (ChristinaD)

    Well, the audience size seems fairly constant at these events - maybe 100 or so?

    Anyway, they are self-selecting, which is important to bear in mind - the people who turn up are generally politically aware.

    EDIT: I would say the people who come are the same sort of people who would apply to go to Any Questions or Question Time.


  344. Peter Oborne is beside himself on Sky News - he’s in danger of exploding.


  345. 313, who would’ve thought that the Defence Secretary when we invaded Iraq who considers people against Stasi databases to want terrorists to kill us all would be lacking in morality.


  346. This is the notional Watford result from last time -

    Labour: 16571 (33.6%)
    Liberal Democrat: 15421 (31.2%)
    Conservative: 14630 (29.6%)
    Other: 2757 (5.6%)
    Majority: 1151 (2.3%)

    A classic three-way marginal.


  347. 330 runnymede. Why the personal abuse? I answered your post in a civil manner and will do so again when you’ve found your manners.


  348. In 2001 on slightly different boundaries Watford was:-
    Conservative: 15437 (33.3%)
    Labour: 20992 (45.3%)
    Liberal Democrat: 8088 (17.4%)
    UKIP: 535 (1.2%)
    Green: 900 (1.9%)
    Other: 420 (0.9%)
    Majority: 5555 (12%)


  349. Alex Salmond is hungry

    MPs can claim a maximum of £400 per month for food, without having to produce receipts, but questions will be asked why the First Minister spent so much. Commons records show Mr Salmond claimed the maximum allowance for eight months in 2005/6, a total of £3,200.
    However, included in Mr Salmond’s claim was £800 for the months of August and September 2005, when the Commons was on its summer recess. Mr Salmond voted on July 12, 2005 but was not required to take part in another division until October 12.
    The SNP’s victory in the 2007 Holyrood election curtailed his appearances at Westminster, but the food claims did not stop.
    In the 2007/08 financial year, which covers the period between the end of March 2007 and the start of April 2008, he voted on only six days in the Commons.
    However, he still claimed £1,751.50 for food, or more than a third of the maximum allowed for the entire 12 months.


  350. F1: pre-race weights.

    http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2009/5/9334.html

    Button lighter than everyone until 8th place man Alonso.

    Vettel, Barrichello and Massa all nicely weighted. Already put a little on Vettel at 6.2. I’d be tempted by Barrichello. Massa seems to have raw pace but his car is as reliable as a Government statement on the Gurkhas.

    Massa also has the sexy KERS. Off the line he could get the jump on people.


  351. 338. ScaldGate is snappier.


  352. Mike, / All

    Do we know what pollster we may be receiving tonight or tomorrow night. We haven’t had an ICM FOR SOME TIME THAT WILL BE INTERESTING ?


  353. Noisy - you could back the Tories (£110 at 10/11) with Ladbrokes to protect your stake on the LDs, then pray that Labour don’t win (they won’t).


  354. 345. What’s abusive about a statement of fact?


  355. 344. Mike, did the Lib Dems fight to win in 2005, and if so, on what basis? Or was it just an unusually large shift of disaffected Labour voters to the Lib Dems on the same pattern that happened across most of urban Britain? If the latter, then the Lib Dems must be in with a decent chance of putting the squeeze on the votes of both their opponents.


  356. 329,
    Not surprised have you been to Watford recently ?


  357. 346. Mike S. Sounds like Watford would be a logical place for some of Lord Ashdown’s money to be spent and for CCHQ to put effort into finding someone competent to help run the campaign. Would that be enough to turn things around? Certainly if they did it soon and it is a year to the next election, I would have thought that a Lad-Con squeeze would be logical.


  358. 347 Peanuts don’t come cheap on easyjet these days.


  359. Watford Mayoralty Vote 2006 :

    http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/news/750920.full_steam_ahead_for_mayor_thornhill/


  360. 357.”Watford Mayoralty Vote 2006″

    JackW, that was in 2006, you cannot compare that result with national politics today. Our Scottish election results are looking a tad out of date already, and they were a year later.


  361. 348, race tip:

    Back Massa to win. Off the line his KERS should enable to make up a few places (and he starts 4th). Then lay him sharpish.

    I considered doing that strategy, but instead I just laid Vettel to go all green.

    I need to start increasing my stakes though. A 100% or 20% return sounds good, except it’s with a £2 stake….


  362. 353 Jack P. The Lib Dem targetted the seat after taking the Mayoralty in 2002 , subsequently pushing the Tories into third place in the seat in 05.


  363. 351. Yes I probably will do, a little closer to election day mind.


  364. 360. Thanks Jack.


  365. Re 357 Watford was a key Lib Dem target in 2005 and they failed to take the seat. Conditions will be nothing like as good in 2010 facing a resurgent Tory party.


  366. I have made a book on Watford on Betfair for any interested parties.
    CON 1.68
    LAB 8.0
    LD 2.68
    OTH 95


  367. “The public” may not think that MPs should get rent or mortgage interest for a second home, but that does rather open up the question of how they think MPs should be expected to fund attending Parliament and do constituency work.


  368. 364

    URW could you translate that into English please


  369. If Watford was just Watford Borough, then I’m sure Jack W would be right. But the seat takes in a number of wards from Three Rivers that have got into the habit of voting Lib Dem locally, and Conservative nationally (rather like Bushey, although the Lib Dems are now on the slide there).

    Hence, in the seat as a whole, a Conservative vote share of at least the 29% they won last time, can pretty much be taken for granted. Now, if the Labour vote collapses, and goes en masse to the Lib Dems, the may just pull it off, but if the Conservative vote share is rising across the board, even that won’t be enough.

    If the Conservatives were a distant third in Watford, or if they were only improving slightly nationally, then I’d say Lib Dems would be favourites. If there’s a very strong tide towards the Conservatives, then they’re not.


  370. 363 Any thought to re-running the Welsh Euros slot as a new one today? It was rather overtaken by events earlier. Might be a good time for its own analysis.


  371. Con 100 in 168, Lab 1 in 8, LD 100 in 268, Other 1 in 95


  372. 296 jsfl:

    “Basically you are suggesting they {labour old working class >BNP switchers} are unreachable.”

    I think once they have switched to the BNP due to reasons such as “labours economic disaster” / “immigrants taking my job” / “fear of islamism” they are unrecoverable, certainly in the short term, by any party other than an “old left” type labour party. Such a party of course doesn’t exist at present.

    It’ll be quite amusing watching as nulab undergoes factional disintegration over the next few years and one is reborn. I think this is quite likely if we really are in for a slow ascent from a 30’s type Depression.


  373. 366 As I understand ,Con 1.68 means 0.68/1 ie odds on very close to 4/6 for the Tories,in old money so to speak :wink:


  374. 336 MTF.
    It doesn’t translate but Tories are an enhanced 4-6, LIB DEMS a poor 17-10 and LAB 7-1.


  375. From that NOTW poll “Worryingly for Brown, two thirds of Labour voters say they think less of him since the details emerged.”

    We could see a massive drop in the Labour turnout in the upcoming locals and Euros….

    This revulsion is also showing amongst the activists. Even diehard Labour loyalists like our former poster snowflake5 state “We need to go for full de-selection of the rotten eggs and it needs to be done publicly.”

    That same feeling is there in the Conservative party towards their MPs and Conservative Associations are more willing to deselect these days than other parties.


  376. 365 - The public, I think, grudgingly accepts the need for second homes. It does not, however, see any need for an expenses regime that is lavish and barely monitored. As usual, when elites look down on the plebs, the plebs have it dead right and the elites are self-serving.

    MPs abundantly deserve the gallons of horse shit that are heading in their direction at present. They set up the system, they abused the system, they have done nothing of significance to iron out the flaws in the system. If things go too far the other way, they only have themselves to blame.


  377. 374. Quite right Antifrank.


  378. 373, I hope the Tories repeat their prompt action over Conway on people stepping out of line. A major issue would be if a big name was doing something seriously wrong.


  379. Why is no one blaming, at least in part, the Commons fees office for all the blatant thieving committed by MPs since the officers involved were surely responsible for approving the fraudulent claims.
    I raised this a few days ago but was rebuked by Marcus who argued that expenses were not vetted or approved as such but were down to MPs’ honesty. This is clearly not so, since a number of such claims, although clearly only a very small percentage, were rejected.

    It’s very unfortunate, but I don’t see any of the offenders facing criminal charges when they are able to demonstrate that their greedy, grasping activities were approved by the Commons authorities.

    Since the records exposed by The Daily Telegraph go back only four years and in view of the huge scale of fraudulent claims which have come to light, surely the police should be called in to investigate such claims for at least another four prior years or will the villains just be allowed to get away with it. Also, when might we expect to be provided with the records for 2008-2009. If this coincides with the tax year, these should already be available.


  380. MTF,Congratulations are in order re your team Fulham-hope West Ham can recover from being 1-0 down at half-time,we’re hosting Liverpool


  381. 374 Sad, but true.


  382. 369/372 Thanks guys

    URW

    What are current odds on Roy Hodgson getting Manager of the year !!!


  383. I note one of the centrepieces of the budget - the car scrappage scheme is starting to take a pounding in the media


  384. 323 Sorry Jack but you hadn’t even finished wiping your arse by the time I had predicted Glasgow East.

    I have no idea about Watford and like others wouldn’t touch it. Frankly a week is a long time in politics let alone one year. The new Tory PPC has adequate time to impress and the party centrally to begin to refocus the local association.

    If Conservative Central Office decides Watford is back on the major target chart it can pile in more money and resources than the entire regional LibDem organisation. Remember this will not be a by-election it will be a General Election.


  385. 378
    TY, I am chuffed to bits not to be sweating it out at the end of the season. Who knows Ave it 09’s prediction about Hull going down isnt quite so far fetched now…….


  386. 380 Probably-and deservedly,NOT that long!


  387. 382 My understanding is that that is now happening.

    The departure of Robert Gordon is probably good news for the local Conservatives.


  388. 383 - If there’s a result in the Newcastle-Boro game then it could be all over for them.


  389. 386 - Sorry to report, it’s 0-2!


  390. 384 If there is a positive outcome between Newcastle and ‘Boro on Monday,Hull will (surpringly for the first time this season) slide into the bottom 3-Hull’s last match is hosting Man U,and I’ve just had a gander at oddschecker-Hull are now third fav to drop


  391. 388 There should be a result alex, thats how games usually end I am led to believe ;)


  392. FWIW, Baxter has the Tories winning Watford by almost 14%, that’s FOURTEEN PERCENT!


  393. 389 Bloody scousers-they nick EVERYTHING !! :lol:


  394. It does seem as if Cameron could be reaping the benefits from taking the expenses issue seriously from early on, and taking harsh measures.


  395. 384. “If Conservative Central Office decides Watford is back on the major target chart it can pile in more money and resources than the entire regional LibDem organisation.”

    That’s probably true. But does anyone think that’s how our democracy should operate?


  396. Exclusive, inside Phil Hope MP’s £37k furnished flat.

    http://tinyurl.com/pcpoes


  397. 390 - “A result” in football terminology is a favourable outcome. A draw is no good for either team in this match, hence draw = “no result”!


  398. Can’t help there MTF.


  399. Peter from Putney - 379 @ 6:08 - “Why is no one blaming, at least in part, the Commons fees office for all the blatant thieving committed by MPs since the officers involved were surely responsible for approving the fraudulent claims.”

    I make absolutely no apologies for re-posting this from earlier this morning:

    From The Times February 5, 2008

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3308659.ece

    “The property at 3 Parliament Street used by Malcolm Jack, the Clerk, the Commons chief executive, received a top-of-the range makeover, with a £39,000 kitchen, bespoke furniture, including a “butler’s tray”, and granite work surfaces. The same inventory also lists two Ionic columns costing £963.

    The extent of the overhaul includes:

    - A new kitchen costing £39,146, including £2,694 for a granite work surface, £4,974 for appliances and £971 for flat-screen kitchen television and appliances.

    - A guest bathroom for £4,652.

    - A bespoke storage cupboard for £2,300, a Sherwood 2.5-seat sofa for £1,543 and black walnut Sherwood chairs for £3,666.

    - A wood floor for £2,985, new carpets for £598 and a black slate hearth for £1,500. Curtains for £4,758.

    - A butler’s tray and lamp table for £1,835 and knife-pleat empire lamp shades for £158.

    The list also includes furniture polishing in the “patio area”, a ceramic table lamp, a £1,095 “deep clean” and the upholstering of chairs.

    Several entries on the itemised list say only “furnishings” or “redecorations”. The total bill for spending on 45 separate items on the property between March 2005 and June 2007 is £102,254.82.

    The Clerk acts as accounting officer for expenditure in the House of Commons, making him legally responsible for its budget and 1,600 employees. The Finance and Administration Department, often called the “Fees Office”, is answerable to both the House of Commons Commission and the Clerk as chief executive.

    Now can you see why the troughies are allowed to get away with things which would be described as fraud and theft if you and I tried it?
    by mirthios May 9th, 2009 at 8:56 am


  400. 393, perhaps. I am still slightly surprised by just how naive and stupid Brown’s approach to expenses has been.

    It is sometimes how hard to assess how good a politician Cameron is because his chief opponent is incompetent beyond belief. Bit like watching a Siberian tiger fighting a one-legged dwarf.

    Edit: I’d like to apologise to one-legged dwarves for comparing them to Cyclops. That was uncalled for.


  401. 369 Sean , The five Three Rivers DC wards in the Watford parliamentary seat voted in the 2008 locals
    LibDem 4091 Con 1877 Lab 444
    In the 2004 locals they voted
    LibDem 4039 Con 2136 Lab 772

    There is no sign of any Conservative advance there in fact a slippage of support .


  402. 396 hmmmmm, let you off based on previous good behaviour and rockiness of the beach here in Semantics-On-Sea


  403. 370. Indeed I wouldn’t disagree with most of that. However, there is an alternative scenario in which Labour is not reborn. There are plenty of left of centre party around and it suggests to me that there is no guarantee that a Labour Party could resurrect itself much as the Liberals failed to do in the 1920’s and 30’s. Instead the Labour party could splinter with groups breaking off and joining other left of centre parties leaving a sad and wretched rump to battle on carrying the disgrace that Blair and Brown have brought upon this country.

    IMO that would be even more amusing…….


  404. 397 I hear you,but as Newcastle and Boro are on 31 points,either of them winning (I beleive Boro by 2 goals) would take them to Hull’s 34 points with favourable GD-obviously a draw would leave both teams on 32 points,still in the drop zone.


  405. 400 - Just as a matter of interest, which bit of “vote LibDem locally, but Conservate nationally” did not not understand?


  406. 400

    Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaah real votes from real people alert!


  407. 379. Pfp - I’ll have you know I was calling for the fees office to be sacked way up thread @12. I have also alluded to their incompetence on this and the previous thread.


  408. A thought on Watford. What share of that 5% of the electorate who are Muslim went LibDem in 2005 because of the Gulf War and now that it is finished, will they stay, go elsewhere, return to Labour or stay at home?


  409. 384 Easterross - I’ve had my eye on Glasgow East for a while, please would you reiterate your prediction which I missed. If you’re going for an SNP hold, then surely they must also have a chance next time at “easier” Glenrothes?

    Were labour to lose these two, then it would surely then be Goodnight Vienna.


  410. 403 - Was that addressed to my post? Seems to me you’re not only “hearing me”, but agreeing with me!


  411. 402, Nick Clegg, Leader of the Opposition in 2014? Cameron wins a majority of 150. Gordon Brown relegated to somewhere between Chamberlain and Hitler in the annals of history.


  412. 405 – Don’t be nasty to Mr Senior…. He is very ‘fragile’ at the mo.


  413. 379 - One senses in all this that the fees office have seen it as their job to get MPs to claim as much dodgy stuff as possible (Michael White alluded to this in his article).

    Presumably on the grounds that no MP would be vulnerable to exposes if they were “all at it”!


  414. 385 not that I take a great interest in the round ball game MTF but did note that Spurs are only just behind you and Mr Redknapp seems to have , quietly for Harry, done pretty well.

    Still pleased to see that the only team I ever used to regularly support, Bury, who just missed promotion on goal difference won the first part of play off (used to spend the Easter hols from school with relatives just north of Bury and stand on the terraces at Gigg Lane but that was a few decades back)


  415. 410 - A two Party LibDem-Conservative system would be a very strange one for a few years. Large numbers of traditional marginals in the Midlands would be extremely safe Conservative seats, with the traditional rural Conservative safe seats becoming the marginals where elections were decided!

    Who knows, maybe with a chance of challenging for power all those “vote LibDem locally, Conservative nationally” seats would become LibDem strongholds!


  416. 414, not sure if it’d be a properly 2 party system. It’d probably be two and half a dozen tiny, crappy lefty parties which eventually either joined the Lib Dems or unified into something Labouresque.

    Anyway, I don’t think it’ll happen. Labour defeat next time seems probably, but no reason once Brown is gone the party won’t renew itself.


  417. Anyone prepared to hazard a guess at how “Ghurkagate” and the first bit of “Snoutsinthetroughgate” will affect the next poll??

    I can only think that others (BNP) will be up and the LD’s will be the biggest gainers. As to vote share, I just dont know.


  418. Here’s tonight’s polling news, running on PA - no full figures, but we can work out some of them:

    LABOUR’S POPULARITY PLUMMETS IN WAKE OF SCANDALS
    Published 09 May 2009 - 18:23
    By James Tapsfield, Press Association Political Correspondent

    Labour’s popularity has slumped to its lowest level since polling began amid a series of scandals and renewed speculation over Gordon Brown’s leadership, it was claimed tonight.

    Research for the Mail on Sunday found the party’s support had dropped three points over the past month to just 23% - even lower than when Michael Foot was at the helm in the 1980s.

    The fall gives the Tories a massive 22% advantage, enough for a landslide victory if repeated at a general election.

    The dire position was reinforced by a separate YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, which suggested Labour’s support had tumbled 7% to 27% - 16 points behind the Conservatives.


  419. Jack W - “218 Mike S. Don’t bet on the Tory in a three way marginal where they are in third place !!

    Never in modern political history have they won the seat !!”

    Except that we have never before since the advent of 3 party politics in 1983 of being in a situation of having a deeply unpopular Labour government and a resurgent Conservative party.

    As for your ARRSE JackW it got the Henley result badly wrong IIRC - too low for the Conservatives and too high for the LibDems.

    As Sean Fear has pointed out if there is a Conservative landslide then they will win Watford if not they wont. But if you expect a Conservative landslide then there are much better bets going than Conservatives to win Watford.


  420. 415 - I meant a “two Party system” in the sense that we currently have a “two party Lab-Con system”. Ie only two parties have a genuine chance of Government.


  421. 398 Mirthios, I take your point and I saw your earlier post, but surely Malcolm Jack, as Chief Executive, he doesn’t get his hands dirty in such menial tasks as vetting individual MPs’ expenses claims.

    At the very least, Brown must order a judicial enquiry, where the judge concerned should select his own staff to investigate this wholesale thieving.


  422. 410. MD - That’s the one. Although a 1931 style result would be quite fun (Con Maj 337). In the words of the old song:

    Oh wouldn’t it be luvverly

    ;o)


  423. 418, ah, right. Yep, I agree with that. If Labour did disintegrate it’d almost be a one-party state for an election or two.

    420, Con gain national domination!


  424. 402 jsfl:

    “..leaving a sad and wretched rump to battle on carrying the disgrace that Blair and Brown have brought upon this country.”

    ? The Official Labour Party (TOffLab).

    prop J.Prescott


  425. Well! A poll reveals that most voters, asked their opinion of MPs this week, say it’s gone down. Who’d have thunk it? Interesting, though, that few voters accept the basic idea of the need for a second home at all (even rented) - the work would literally be impossible to do for anyone north of Milton Keynes without it.
    That tends to suggest that even the more transparent and sensible solution will get a raspberry from voters.

    £30K salaries? When I put in for Broxtowe the salary was £34K, so it’s not that outlandish, though that was in 1996 prices. But I did swallow hard at the idea of leaving a safe job at nearly triple the salary (it was put up to I think £45K by a subsequent vote, ascribed by the cynical press to Tory MPs boosting their final salary pensions before doomsday). I think that level of salary would actively deter quite a lot of people who’ve been successful in another walk of life. Take yourself, ken - you’re obviously interested in politics and could contribute an angle on banking. Would you do it for £30K?

    Another round of anecdotes - today’s canvassing was like yesterday, not great, not ghastly, no direct references to expenses at all. It always surprises me how many people don’t refer to current news at all - even in the middle of the Iraq war controversy I’d come across voters who seemed unaware that anything special was happening. The only exception I’ve encountered was the fuel dispute - absolutely everyone had a view on that, and for a while (until the blockaders overplayed their hand) there was anti-Government feeling then on a scale I’ve not found before or since.


  426. 413 Come on Ted, be fair, Fulham and Spurs started the season with slightly differing expectations - 16th and 6th respectively I would suggest.


  427. 421 - I don’t quite agree with that. My hypothetical scenario anticipates a situation where Labour continues to exist, just with a ceiling of 150 seats or so. The LibDems in with a genuine chance of Govt would find a lot of their local strongholds turning into national strongholds. But the dominant force would be the Conservatives swinging between majorities and largest party in hung Parliament status. There would remain the chance of a LibDem-Lab coalition though.

    Basically a similar situation to what happened in the 1920s.


  428. Incidentally, I wonder if both some of my own colleagues and some here don’t overestimate the danger of a huge BNP surge. We’ve not seen much sign of it in recent local by-elections, and although they’re putting up a smattering of candidates in my patch they don’t seem to be doing anything so far. Are you seeing much sign of rthem, woody - belioeve they’re more implanted in your area?


  429. 415. MD actually I think there is a chance that Labour could struggle to recover simply because it is possible that certain electoral reforms (restricting the Union block funding) could make Labour inviable after a significant electoral defeat or successive defeats.


  430. 404 If you examine the 2005 CC results in the Watford/Three Rivers wards and compare to the 2005 GE result there is no evidence that there was very little vote LibDem locally vote Conservative in the GE but quite a lot of people voted LibDem locally and Labour in the GE .


  431. Well know Films that relate to MPs expenses:-
    Swindlers List
    Secrets & Lies
    Milk
    A Few Good Men
    How to Lose Friends & Alienate People
    and (from various other blogs) Scumbag Millionaires
    Any others?


  432. Nick P - “anti-Government feeling then on a scale I’ve not found before or since.” How about the 10p fiasco last year?

    Why should you be paid levels that equates to other professions like Doctors and Lawyers when qualifications are not a pre-requisite to performing the job. Perhaps, if any old moron wasn’t allowed to become an MP, then there wouldn’t be such a dearth of talent in Parliament.


  433. 410.Hitler and Chamberlain will be remembered…Brown on the other hand will soon be forgotten.

    Maybe we could club together & sponser an award at the Spectator political awards ceremony, for the MP with the most creative or outlandish expenses. The snouts in troughs award…goes to ???? maybe on 2nd thoughts we need to wait for Ed Balls expenses to be published…although the bar has been pushed pretty high Ms Moran.


  434. 408 Peter, my intelligence from Glasgow East is that John Mason is bedding himself in as MP as successfully as he did as local councillor. Margaret Curran on the other hand is making an arse of herself spouting off factually inaccurate remarks etc.

    I know that the SNP councillors in the East End are working hard to support John Mason and I guarantee the SNP canvass returns will be getting constantly updated.

    I will spend much of next week in the constituency so by next weekend will know if there is any sign of life given the Europeans approach.

    I am going on John Mason to hold by around 1500-2000 this time. Sadly unless the seat is redrawn before the 2014 election (and it should not be until the 2018 election) I reckon if Labour still exists in its present form it will take it back.

    Glenrothes is a strange one. This is what I said about it in my June 2008 Scottish predictions which Mike still has for posting.

    Glenrothes: (Lab) the seat held by John MacDougall who has been the subject of gossip recently on PB but who intends to continue to fight the seat for Lab. A large part of this seat falls within the Holyrood Central Fife seat which went SNP in 2007 when Tricia Marwick took it on a 7.5% swing so this could be an indicator for Lab in 2010. I predict the SNP could take this seat and if for any reason there is a by-election before then, Lab would be toast.

    We all know there was a by-election and we all know the result was a total shock to all external observers including most Labour party people. What impact the four fold increase in postal votes had is difficult to know but easy to assume. Ignoring the conspiracy theories (if we can) most of the postal votes will not be there next year. The electoral register will have been updated twice between the 2008 byelection and the 2010 GE (Oct 2008 and Oct2009). I may be wrong but I suspect Labour will again take it for granted and they will not be as assiduous as the SNP in updating their canvas returns.

    I therefore expect Glenrothes at the General Election to be within 5% or 2000 votes. I am not sure Peter Grant standing again for the SNP is a good idea. I expect both the Tory and LibDem votes to increase a bit and Labour to drop a lot. I expect the SNP to increase but how substantially I know not as it will be straight Lab-SNP switches if the result is to be remotely close. If you can make some money backing both Labour to hold and SNP to gain, I would go for that.


  435. 402. LOL!


  436. 429 fether.
    Monster Balls.


  437. Mark - my point about the Three Rivers wards is that they’re solid Lib Dem at local level, but solid Conservative at Parliamentary level.

    WRT a Labour collapse and a realignment on the Left, yes, some current marginal seats would become safe Conservative, and some safe Conservative seats would become marginal. The same sort of thing happened from the 1920s, to the 1950s, before Liberal support began to recover. At the same time, some seats where the Conservatives were competitive against Liberals, turned into safe Labour seats once class trumped religious and constitutional issues as reasons for voting.

    Like Innocent Abroad, I’d expect to see Race, and Religion, becoming increasingly important influences on voting preference, which produce all sorts of unusual results in the future.


  438. 429

    A Taste for Money
    Fiddlers on the Roof


  439. Of course “following the rules” is not valid. The stupid MPs still do not get it that we don’t bloody care whether they were following the rules or not. They have been on the fiddle and it’s got to stop.


  440. Spend Hard II - Spend Harder
    Casablankchequea
    Mr Smith doesn’t go to Westminster

    and

    Greed


  441. 428 Those of us who’ve canvassed there will know that there is considerable split-ticket voting, in those specific wards.


  442. 435 Swindlers List?


  443. 431. Easteross, I’ve heard that Lanark and Hamilton East is also ‘one to watch’ not necessarily in my fellow Tories favour, but a possible scalp from Labour none-the-less.


  444. 423 Nick I just suspect that because you have a reputation for being a nice polite sort of a chap those good Broxtowe folks you visit are too worried about offending you to tell you exactly what they think about your government.

    It may not be Nick Palmer of the Parish of Broxtowe whom they set out to punish but it will be Nick Palmer of the Parish of Broxtowe who loses his seat because his leader has shown himself to be totally incompetent and most of his cabinet colleagues not fit to govern.


  445. 434 Sean , you are incorrect , in the 2005 CC elections around 1,000 people voted LibDem in the CC and Conservative in the GE , even if all those were in the Three Rivers wards and none in the Watford wards , the LibDems would still have outpolled the Conservative in the Three Rivers wards . By contrast around 3,000 people voted LibDem in the CC and Labour in the GE .


  446. @423:

    “tends to suggest that even the more transparent and sensible solution will get a raspberry from voters.”

    Mr Palmer . May I be the first to make a constructive suggestion that will meet with your constituents approval?

    It will provide secure accomodation for all MPs, minimise travel time and notably increase the Speakers reputation particularly when he calls “Lock the Doors”. Permanently moor HMP Weare off the HofC Terrace.


  447. 442 - Aren’t you assuming that nobody voted Conservative locally, and Labour nationally?


  448. 441 I’m afraid (from Nick P’s point of view) that’s probably it. He’s a well-liked, hard working MP, representing a government that is thoroughly disliked - so naturally, people will be reluctant to say they won’t be voting for him.


  449. Nick P.

    Whilst I agree with your view that MPs should get a decent salary, I do think it comes with a price.

    1) MPs must have specified professional managerial qualifications (enforced through the selection criteria)

    2) MPs must give up all control of their terms and conditions to a fully independent body who would take over all functions of the HoC Authority.

    3) Personal expenses should be far more based on Civil Service relocation terms rather than detached duty terms. (i.e. more one-off expenses and less annual entitlement allowances but acknowledging the need to maintain two homes).

    4) Procedures for removing MPs who abuse their position (including defections) must be much more straightforward and accessible to the electorate.

    The cosy little closed shop that Parliament has become must end.


  450. 439

    Brokebank Mountain

    Raiders of the public purse

    Badfellas


  451. 443 - Providing MP accommodation in London is only a “solution” to accommodate the traditional situation of MPs having a home in their constituency before coming down to London to attend Parliament (the reference to “Parliamentary duties” in the expenses rules pre-amble suggests that - second homes in constituencies cannot technically fulfill the definition).

    Personally i think requiring every MP to decamp their families enmasse to their constituencies, even if they normally live in London, is taking things too far.


  452. Pigs Is Pigs (1954)?
    Learned Pigs and Fireproof Women (1989)?
    Pigs in Clover (1919) ?


  453. The Stench Connection


  454. 446

    1) No. The electorate are entitled to vote for pigs and apes if that’s their wish.

    2) Agreed.

    3) Agreed.

    4) Dubious. The public can pass judgement on any MP at a subsequent election.


  455. 446 - why should MPs have managerial qualifications when being a manager isn’t part of their job description. Arguably it isn’t even necessarily in the job description of ministers! (whose job is to take decisions, not manage staff, budgets etc)


  456. 431 Easterross - many thanks for your helpful and considered response. From an SNP perspective, I’ll take that as being a “Yes, quite probably” in the case of Glasgow East and a “No, probably not” at Glenrothes.
    On this basis Hills’ 13/8 (1.625/1) for the SNP to win the former of these seats looks like very fair value.

    Were one able to receive such detailed analyses on other close contests, then it should certainly help to improve one’s betting returns.


  457. 452. …and given how dubious many managerial qualifications are I think there’s little value in such a requirement.


  458. Phil Woolas says his claims were within the rules, so we must assume he wears womens clothes, and uses tampons and nappies. His kids are school age , i believe…


  459. 439. Home, a loan?


  460. 454 - The argument seems to be that only people with professional qualifications should be paid a high salary. So maybe the aim is to give them the easiest qualifications available? ;)


  461. 456 - Like it :D


  462. Sky:

    Mail On Sunday

    Con 45
    Lab 23

    Other Poll

    Con 43
    Lab 27


  463. “They Lied With Their Suits On” 1941 with Errol Flynn


  464. Two Polls MoS - 45/23

    Other one 43/27

    as per Sky

    EDIT - beaten to it. :-(


  465. “307 Punter. There are certain seats that buck trends. Seats where the electorate have evolved a slightly higher electoral antenae. They often have the Lib Dems as part of the equation.

    All the reliable evidence we have is that it is the Lib Dems who are the clearest front runners for the seat. I’m tempted to say all we need now is for the Tory PPC to be charged by the plods and convicted in the courts …. Ooppss already happened !!

    Other similiar seats are Eastleigh and Westmorland (The North Norfolk of 2010).

    by Jack W May 9th, 2009 at 5:25 pm”

    I think it’s a little silly to compare seats where there is a 2 horse race and a Liberal Democrat MP incumbent with a three horse race where there is no Liberal Democrat MP. Even in 3 horse races Mr Smithson has taken care to distinguish between one where there is a Liberal Democrat MP eg Leeds North West and one where there is not eg Watford. Given the transformative effect when a Liberal Democrat MP is returned for the first time I think Mr Smithson may well be right that 2005 was the best Liberal Democrat shot at a Watford MP. That thousand votes difference may as well have been 20,000 votes difference for them now.


  466. MoS is still BPIX, isn’t it?


  467. Dirty rotten scoundrels.


  468. “The Usual Suspects.”


  469. As Ed Balls is Education Minister, a Professional Qualification for 650 MPs can be created at the stroke of a pen.

    So it’s a non real requirement.

    Just tighten the expenses rules, publish expenses and all breaches mean fines 10 times the size of the breach and losing 3 months entitlement. With no appeal. That would mean after one breach there would be no more.

    In times of hardship a 50% saving of MPs’ expenses is worth some £25M… worth having.


  470. 451.

    Sean Fear.

    Re 1)

    Presumably associations set certain selection criteria already. Why shouldn’t the country on behalf of the electorate do the same?

    Re 4) Given the current scandal which in my view is close to a constitutional crisis with the electorate viewing the whole of Parliament as corrupt should we realy be expected to wait a maximum of 5 years to get rid of them? Similarly an MP is elected on a manifesto. If he jumps ship and reverse his position is it right his that the electorate should be stuck with him for the next 5 years?


  471. The two last You Govs were 45/27 so if the Sunday Times has 43/27 then suggests no change over the last two weeks. Labour will be relieved. Relieved in a 16% deficit !

    I think I’m right in saying that 23% will be the worst ever polling record for Labour by 0.5% but may not “count” as I assume MoS are still using BPIX ?


  472. 441, when the tide comes, it sweeps all before it. Think about all those Conservative MPs who went, from damn fine to terrible, the swing took them all.


  473. 446 - I would prefer there to be an age limit on all MPs being 35 years and over. Having people like Sarah Teather, who have become MPs at such a young age does not fill me with confidence when they are making decisions on behalf of the people. Therefore, only allowing people who have had some life experience as well as some work experience would help to weed out the policy wonks,hangers-on and bag carriers from waiting for their turn at the trough.


  474. I noticed from Mrs Dale’s diary that Margaret Moran has a website.

    I’ve just cheered myself up immensely by going to her contact page and sending this

    Very much liked the Google pin map, but there seems to be one missing. It should be about 100 miles away in Southampton and say this: “I know that many of you are having trouble at the moment in paying the bills and keeping the roof over your head, but lucky me! This is where I spent £22k of your money doing up my holiday home”

    On this windswept and cold evening why not give it a try, it might make you feel better too.


  475. On Watford: Punters should look at the choice of Tory candidate (to replace the previous regrettable choice).

    Personally I think Jack W may be over-stating the impact of the Oakley affair. Over two years will have passed, so it will be largely forgotten (except by the unfortunate victims, who deserve every sympathy).


  476. If that Labour figure of 23% with BPIX is correct it will be the joint lowest share Labour have “enjoyed” in any opinion poll, tied with the YouGov/Sun poll just after the May elections last year.


  477. “For a few dollars more”


  478. 466. Come on Mad. Don’t be obtuse. Do you really think I am suggesting that we let politicians make up something for themselves?

    There are plenty of such qualifications already in existence (e.g. relating to ISO standards.)

    To define which were appropriate would need an independent review body whose findings would be would be binding on all political parties.


  479. The Color of Money.


  480. 440 This is what I said last June:

    Lanark and Hamilton East: (Lab) is the seat of the rather “loud” Jimmy Hood, ex-NUM official and someone destined to be nothing more than a backbencher. Holding the seat in 2005 with a majority of almost 12,000 votes representing 27%, he could only lose this seat if it is broken up so a Lab hold in 2010.

    Afleitch I just cannot at present see anything altering Lanark and Hamilton East from the “they will vote for Labour in any circumstances” column but some of the other Lanarkshire seats could become tasty.


  481. O/T, I’m enjoying the Geneis Secret so far. It’s like one of the earliest (and best) James Herbert novels.


  482. 446. We need the capability of recall elections. If we had those I’ve no doubt that J. Smith would’ve been history in very short order.

    Don’t make it too easy, but if say, 20 or 25% of those on the electoral roll sign a petition for a re-run election, then it would only happen when it needed to happen.


  483. When people are endlessly complaining about the number of “managers” in the public sector, it seems bizarre to call for a whole class of politicians dedicated to the furtherance of the managerial profession!


  484. One of those polls is fairly standard at the moment, the other, if it is correct, is frightening for Labour.


  485. Qualifications for MPs? A City and Guilds in Elementary Bookkeeping would probably be well beyond most of them.


  486. 480. Agreed. And most ‘managers’ are nothing of the sort anyway.
    SFAIC 10 years on the Vauxhall track would trump an MBA for a realistic appreciation of what’s good for not just the country, but the people in it.


  487. 451 MPs and Parliament are the highest authority in the land and to a great extent our liberties and freedoms come from that. There are too many “independent” unelected bodies in this country, we need to restore more democracy and be able to trust our elected representatives.

    Parliament certainly proved capable of such in the 90’s and before. Perhaps a key moment in last decade was the removal of Elizabeth Filkin for being an effective enforcer. MPs and Lords are quite capable of setting up again processes and rules that can ensure transparency and restoration of trust. MPs are not and should not be employees but they can choose themselves to set up and sustain independent oversight, though it means that we do not get another Filkin episode.

    Those MPs whose expenses are or appear unjustified should all be examined by the independent Commission and where found in breach of the rules to pay back their ill gotten gains and accept further sanctions

    The current HoC administration is in need of an immediate overhaul, Mr Speaker in particular needs to be removed by the MPs and a figure of probity and trust installed. The Clerk of the House perhaps also needs replacing and management changes made inside his administration. The HoC should pass a resolution that the prime responsibility of the people responsible for administrating pay and expenses is to the dignity of Parliament and to operate to ensure that the rules and reputation of Parliament are respected and defended.

    Sir Christopher Kelly will hopefully report back by Autumn and put in place a transparent and clear set of rules and simplified expenses regime.


  488. oooh - Sky claiming a poll tomorrow shows support for Labour at its lowest level ever (since polling obviously :-)


  489. New polling thread


  490. If the 43-27 is YouGov, it shows precisely no change from the last YouGov. The BPIX one shows Con +2, Lab-3. Both bear out my impression that immediate impact of the expenses issue is limited.
    I don’t think the ‘people being polite to their MP’ explanation works, because I’m not just reporting my own canvassing, but the other people I’m out with - a good deal of the canvassing is on the same sweep but actually on a different street to the one I’m on.


  491. Move Over Darling(1963).And two for pb.ers only.

    Jack.
    W.


  492. 462 Punter. I’m not comparing them. I’m stating that these are the type of “enhanced seat” where UNS is not as strong a factor as might otherwise be the case.

    It’s seems a little odd that many on PB seem to fallen for “UNS One Size Fits All Syndrome”. - it’s a fallacy. it was in 97 and will be again in 2010, if we have a landslide that is !!


  493. 478 What did you think of that Wales Euros piece? Labour seem to really be sweating over whether they will finish first. It’s just possible the Tories could top it. *IF* that happened the psychological shock for Labour would be enormous. Would it resonate in the Tory party in the same way outside Wales or not.


  494. 475
    jfsl
    Those vultures would change the rules to suit themselves. They have no shame.. Indeed I would say more but instead I have taken Chris A’s advice at 471 and emailed Ms Moran and suggested very politely :
    she apologise
    pay back the money
    and resign.
    (via the contact page).

    I was polite and correct.

    I doubt if she will be polite enough to reply let alone act!


  495. 431: I wont bet the house on the nats holding glasgow east cause Mason is working hard. I would have thought a ” vote labour to stop a tory government” message will win the day for labour there.


  496. 431/453 - re Glenrothes and Glasgow East. The two seats have a different make up. The Old Central Fife seat was an organised Union seat full of Nationalised industries (Coal Mining/Shipyards, former railway marshalliing yard at Thornton ) the Labour Party have stronger roots. It doesn’t have the move of population that the Glasgow East has. That seat does a tribal loyalty that can be superficial on the surface. If they feel that someone is working for them they will go for that person. John Mason is doing just that.


  497. Is it really the intention of the rules to allow MP’s to buy the most expensive second home you can within the £24000 limit? On an interest only mortgage that could buy you a property of about £600000.

    In London that wouldn’t buy you a palace but in Knutsford and Whitney it would. Even ignoring the potential nest egg should the taxpayer be financing this sort of opulent second home?


  498. Nick Palmers canvass reports are surreal or the residents there are just saying anything to get rid of him.