Can Labour move on from the Gurkhas issue?
May 7th, 2009
When can they get the focus put on Cameron?
The political news this afternoon has been dominated, again, by the Gurkhas issue following the rejection by the UK Border Agency of four out of five residency test cases. This follows yesterday’s meeting between the Gurkhas’ campaigner, Joanna Lumley, and Gordon Brown.
Today’s decision led to interesting scenes and a hastily organised meeting at the BBC’s Westminster offices between Ms Lumley and the minister responsible, Phil Woolas.
Quite how the Prime Minister could have given the campaigners the assurances he apparently did without being aware of the Border Agency decision is quite remarkable. Joanna Lumley is a popular and hugely effective campaigner and the actions don’t make the government look good.
What it all means, of course, is that ministers seem to have lost another news cycle and we are one day closer to the general election. They desperately want the Tories to be put under scrutiny but instead things like this dominate the bulletins.
Mike Smithson
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First!
first ?
First? Of course not….
BTW - England good or Windies woeful today?
1,2,3-There can be only one guys!
Sorry chaps, you need to be up early in the morning to beat me.
Yet another nail in the coffin of this discredited government methinks.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3596091/clueless-government.thtml
“Joanna Lumley is a popular and hugely effective campaigner the actions don’t make the government look good.”
I think thats a bit of an understatement Mike.
FPT
What are the demographics in Oldham East and Saddleworth?
I remember the BNP getting a big vote there in previous elections.
I suspect Woolas is toast - but if the town has a large immigrant population the Gurkhas issue might matter less than would otherwise be the case.
Reposted from previous;
Evening all, good news about the new superpoll due after the summer. One area I will be interested in is Yorkshire, last September’s poll showed that the Tories weren’t making as big inroads in Yorkshire as they were elesewhere. The fieldwork for that was before HBOS nearly collapsed and the impression was created that the government sacrificed Halifax jobs so as to try and stave off the SNP and to save jobs in Darling’s seat. The commentary on the last poll said that Darling was only going to narrowly hold Edinburgh SW, so it will be interesting to see what implications there are for his survival and for Blinky in Morley.
Just been driving home with 5 Live on the radio and heard the most abject and complete surrender since Stalingrad! I think it’s fair to say that Woolas will be joining his boss on the political scrapheap after the June reshuffle. They’ve now been forced to let Joanna Lumley effectively write the new guidelines!
Also just read today about how Clegg bitchslapped the entire PLP yesterday when they started barracking him, “I say it to his face you just say it behind his back!” What a classic!
FPT 568. Oracle
Lumley said today:
“The Minister has explained…and…and I think we’re all agreed we’re going to be able to help in the formation of new guidelines. So that will be wonderful. These will be guidelines to be completed by July and the 1500 cases will be looked at we understand most sympathetically.”
FPT “The commentary on the last poll said that Darling was only going to narrowly hold Edinburgh SW”
Anecdote Alert
News from the Tory campaign team is that latest canvas results show Darling within 1% swing of losing his seat.
I took Ladbrokes 7/2 when it was available and have topped up with VC 5/2.
This bizarre administration is falling apart the seams.
Even the spin is is threadbare. The outgoing Labour MP for Nottinghamshire, whilst spinning yesterday, used exactly the same words about support from a thinly disguised Lib Dem MP in support of his Labour colleagues in the county (barbarians etc) as he did when reporting one of those amazing canvass returns.
This is very damaging to the Government but I would also like to draw attention to the BBC. Nick Robinson was trying to put the message out there that this campaign is not entirely about the Gurkhas. He asked Lumely if she felt she was being used by people in the team (some of the Lawyers), who are not supporters of this Labour Government and have an ulterior motive. He then when talking to Jon Sopel said one of the Lawyer was a known ‘Eurosceptic’. As if this is a bad thing. This is quite disgraceful and yet another example of Robinson not being impartial.
3
They can’t bat on any wicket that isn’t flat. Been the same for years. OTOH England can’t bowl on flat wickets.
8 - I think one cannot underestimate the affection held for the Gurkhas. They only military group that could produce worse publicity for the government was if they tried to beat up on the Chelsea Pensioners.
The little BBC snippet is funny for the furtive way Woolas reacts to Lumley, but it fails to capture the full shambolic glory of the whole Armando Ianucci-scripted “weasel with previous” press conference.
I hope someone has preserved it for posterity and pastes a link here.
7. Somehow, I don’t think Gabble would have posted that particular link.
Although Woolas clearly screwed up big time, it could still be spun relatively positively for the government - after all, Joanna Lumley did repeatedly say that Woolas reassured her (whilst also saying that they had agreed she would be responsible for rewriting the rules!).
I think we need to watch the media cycle over the next few hours to see how this one plays out.
14 - Toenails questions were way below the belt!
Woolas getting stitched up on BBC News at 6.
It reminds me a bit of the battle for Knutsford Coommon in the Tatton seat in 1997! The two parties exchanging views etc and being brought together - makes you wonder why Brown won’t do a TV debate against Cameron?
14 So it’s smear Lumley’s team then is it?
Wonder who whispered to Nick Robinson that it was politically motivated and her lawyer was a “Eorosceptic” (something only slightly less daemonic than being homophobic or racist in the BBC’s eyes).
I still think that the Gurkas have been sold a Turkey today.
Its bullshit and just buys Brown time.
19 - I think it is too late for the positive spin, as one of the journos said to Woolas the court decision was last year and you still haven’t complied with it.
However, I do agree that it could be spun as a face saving exercise, that the government have done some listening and eventually make the right decision, when they finally do, if they do.
“makes you wonder why Brown won’t do a TV debate against Cameron?”
Beats me! What possible risk could there be for him???
Toenail on BBC news
Fraser Nelson at the Coffee House Blog - Clueless government
“Joanna Lumley was late for her 4pm press conference - she apologised and explained why. 10 Downing Street had just called her and said they “had just heard” that four of the five Gurkas have had their test cases rejected. She repeated this, with incredulity. “They had just heard. They had just heard. There seems, if I may say so minister, a gap in communications.”
That’s one way of putting it. Another way of putting it is that British government is in utter meltdown, and there be even more stapler-sized holes in the walls of No10 this afternoon. Brown gave assurances on the matter, on the very day the Home Office rejects it - this is what passes for government. It is pure panto. And it would be funny - if these clowns weren’t also in charge of the economy. Words fail.”
Toenails becomes a conduit for Govt smears. “Huge implications for Govt costs”. Yes a badly wounded Falklands vet with 6 pints of British blood….
Why am I not surprised?
24.no no no no, by the end of the week the government will be so bruised they will invite the entire population of Nepal to come over!
well that piece by Toenails WAS a disgrace.
9-Guess depends on how this demographic split in 2005. I can see him hoovering up the ethnic vote (and winning back the Iraq Muslim vote) but losing the white vote. But white turnout is likely to be higher, and there seems to be a clear challenger (didn’t the BNP fall back there in 2005?). Think could be a close run thing.
BUT, I remember Straw being talked about as being in trouble in Blackburn in 2005 and he held on quite comfortably. Was there a divided opposition there?
17 there is a marvellous look of dusgust on Joanna’s face at one point when it sounds like Woolas is weaselling out.
what i don’t get about this government is how bad they are at speaking normal English. Woolas described some of the Gurkhas as being “in country” when he meant in the UK. he then nods at Ms Lumley and calls her “the campaign”. They speak so oddly almost as if they go to the Gordon Brown school of communication.
Joanna Lumley on the news looking at Phil Woolas - If looks could kill he would have been eviscerated.
26. The Watcher May 7th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
It would be interesting to watch a TV aidiences reaction in comparisons to Paid MP’s as the debate meanded from Brown’s failure on the economy to expense sleaze! Brown has nothing to lose now.
John O at 587 on the last thread - yes, apoologised to him in my last e-newsletter (it’s on my website - the first of the listed newsletters). He’s entirely satisfied.
14. Well observed and quite astonishing. I also thought the ‘BBC Bias’ was hyped up but that kind of thing is something else. Subtle yet effective. Just putting it out there the Lawyer is a ‘eurosceptic’ in other words a Tory. That is a McCarthyite way of operating, only it’s the BBC indulging in those tactics not MP’s.
The word “spasmoidally” (c) Alan Clark springs to mind
QT tonight looks like one to miss. Iain Gray, Nicola Sturgeon, Lord Steel, Nadine Dorries, and Bruce Anderson.
On topic to answer the question, not unless Labour stop prevaricating and get their act together, they won’t.
Incidentally, I think all five were rejected (according to Sky).
Off topic:
Did anyone else receive their Swine-Flu leaflet today?
I’ll not comment on enigmas of this underwhelming piece of literature and focus on the key actions that need to be taken.
Would anyone like to join my ‘flu friends’ network and does anyone know how Kleenex shares did today?
By the way, I thought the NHS branding was marvellous - all four seperate brands. I bet that cost a fortune!
CATCH IT (Swine-Flu???), BIN IT, KILL IT
38. On the contrary, the 2 subjects guaranteed to come up are Lumleygate and smeargate. Jolly fun for all
30. But they’ll cock that up and we will all have to move to Nepal instead.
On and down into the Abyss.
39 - No sorry haven’t read mine yet, been to busy doing something else the government has been repeatedly telling me to do (via Spotify ads), defrost my freezer!
Next week I anticipate that I will be following new orders and busy taking arse wiping classes, to bring me technique up to government approved standards!
39. I did not get my leaflet. Does it say what to do when your flu friends are all dead?
Nick Palmer, previous thread “I put the Gurkhas before party politics. But the posts above, although from anonymous posters wo personal interest, simply don’t do that: their key issue is hoping the government will look bad. The suggestion that it’s because people are motivated by discussing betting is just silly: it’s a pile of gloats, not a betting discussion.
It’s entirely natural that Tories should want to gloat if they think the government looks bad, of course. But it’d be nice if they at least simulated a bit of interest in the issue itself, if only to justify all the mock-indignation when the vote was coming up in Parliament the other day.”
Many of us here - from all parties - were delighted when you voted as you did last week, and said so. That was down to the issue. You did the right thing. Don’t take the gloss off that by now trying to claim everyone supporting the Gurkha issue is some Tufton-Bufton Tory.
This was an issue of principle, about the right thing for Britain to do. What happened today was everybody here standing around, slack-jawed in utter incredulity at the frankly laughable way this Govt. has responded to this issue. To say it was amateur is to do down the normal sense of plucky determination that “amateur” usually invokes. This was just absolutely wretched management of an issue doing incredible harm to the standing of your Govt. But then you know that, and it is particularly painful for you because you helped provoke it.
What are you advised to do if you are Tim Bot and don’t have any real friends and your family have disowned you
38. I though Nads was only on Questiontime a few weeks ago?
43. How does defrosting your freezer stop the spread of swine flu?
32 - The BNP officially support the Gurkhas of course. Some of their supporters no doubt feel differently but they are probably lost to mainstream politics generally. I would have thought the issue would play as well for the Lib Dems (in the case of Oldham East - Tories in others) as elsewhere.
It would have taken something amazing to oust Straw in 2005. The Lib Dems surged but from 8% to 20% while Straw dropped a similar amount to 42%. Tories stayed second (just) on 22% but dropped votes apparently to the BNP (Tories ran an Asian candidate) who kept their deposit in fourth.
39
Is it a sneaky way to bung a subsidy to Royal Mail?
43 - Hmm knowing this government they will show you how to wipe your elbow!
Just complained to the BBC about Toenails, and his peddling of the Govt line (about costs), and the issue of celebrity. Its nonsense. The issue is what is RIGHT. my father was part of Field Marshall Slim’s lost 14th army, so I know a bit about the Ghurkas.
BBC impartial…, nonsense.
48 - It doesn’t, it is another “big” government advertising campaign via Spotify. I get instructions to do it at least once an hr when listening to music via it.
“They desperately want the Tories to be put under scrutiny ” - huh?
Are the Tories promising to murder the first born?
Will the Tories manifesto be so inept that it will be regarded as a long suicide note?
They have been out of power for 12+years. So what? That is a good point.
We need a change. Go scrutinise that.
43. Oracle May 7th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Next week I anticipate that I will be following new orders and busy taking arse wiping classes, to bring me technique up to government approved standards!
If the Govt via any conduit attempt to smear Lumley then they will get an even bigger kicking than they are at present.
GB has been made to look even more incompetent than i believed was possible. If he has any dignity he should be on the news tonight apologising for this farce.
But he wont of course.
55 - Do you think it is part of the guaranteed skills training given to long term unemployed and the NEETS? I heard that a lot of it isn’t even that useful!
44: Go to Colorado, then Las Vegas for the final stand against the dark man, Randall Flagg?
54. Given how most of the media are actively gunning for Labour, who is going to put the Tories under scrutiny?
55. Have either Phil Woolas or Jacqui Smith passed the course? Should Blinky publish the key stage results for all government ministers in this vital skill, or are they too embarrassing?
59 - Who put Blair and his motley crew under scrutiny between 1995-7? Anyone? No.
56. The problem is they don’t know how to do anything else. Dirty tactics are deeply ingrained in the Brown cabal, even after McBride was caught they still resort to them because they do know how to do anything else.
60 - Jacqui Smith still on the freezer defrosting, she didn’t know which of the freezers in which of her “main” homes was the best to start with! It caused a malfunction of her brain thinking about it, and she has been useless ever since!
Oh Dear, couldn’t catch it live but from the previous thread it sounded a blast.
Could Labour lose the ‘luuvie’ vote over this?
Bad light stops play: Windies end the day net -186 for 2
61 - I wish that they had. I would like David Cameron and his crew to be put under scrutiny too. At the moment, we are being offered a proposition with as much content as a Pepsi ad.
(NB tim this is NOT a cue for you to make the obvious alternative fizzy beverage related joke)
Her voice over rates are going to go through the roof!
44. No afraid not….
57. Oracle May 7th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
Yes the courses are useless! A waste of money and I doubt will help many get Jobs - there supposed to be motivational but the only thing i learnt was some people call stealing something “teething it”!
Plus how abusive this woman who worked there was, it made you wonder how she got a job in the firstplace!
Sorry hadn’t realised a new thread had started so just posted this at the end of the last thread. Many of my arguments apply to the Gurkha issue as well. I apologise if it is seems very personal but that is because it is. If I lived in England rather than Scotland I would be one of the many hundreds of thousands of innocent people with my DNA on the database!
Just trying to catch up on all todays postings. Interesting discussion on the Union on the last thread following on from my remarks last night. Towards the end of next year we can spend lots of time debating that subject.
On the DNA issue, I listened to the Minister Vernon Coaker this morning. He made a very good point that many old outstanding crimes have been solved through DNA evidence.
However he failed to confirm how many old unsolved offences have been cleared up by checking the DNA of people who have either never been prosecuted after arrest or have been acquitted. The answer I suspect is next to none.
As an former lawyer and member of the Forensic Science Society (now lapsed) I tend to take an interest in reported cases in the news and media when DNA evidence is used in solving old cases.
They tend to be solved because:
1) At the time someone is arrested and has his/her DNA taken, advances in technology enables police forces to enter an arrested person’s DNA profile into their system and that can lead to a match up. Recently a murder conviction was achieved in an old case because the hitherto unknown murderer had his DNA taken when he was arrested for a potential road traffic offence. He was in effect identified before the road traffic matter was disposed of.
2) The DNA of an already convicted criminal is identified when the DNA found at a scene of crime is checked on the system.
3) Most commonly the police are systematically revisiting the evidence in unsolved crimes and wherever possible testing such items e.g. clothing, retained from the unsolved investigation for DNA and when DNA is idntified, the profile is being run through the system often alerting the police to a convicted criminal who has convictions for other matters but whose DNA profile potentially matches that found on the old exhibits.
4) A DNA profile is taken from someone either accused or convicted of an offence and the profile is very similar to that of an unknown potential offender, indicating that the potential offender may be a close relative of the person. There was a recent case highlighted where a murderer was identified because a DNA sample taken at the scene of the crime was a close match but not identical to that of a convicted criminal. It turned out to be his brother or nephew.
In none of these scenarios is the DNA sample leading to the possible solution of a crime that of someone who has been acquitted or not prosecuted at the time it was used to solve the crime.
There can be no justification for retaining the DNA or fingerprints of any innocent person. If that person already has a criminal record then his DNA could or would already be on the system and would/should remain there.
People forget that for an innocent person, being wrongly charged with committing an offence, especially a serious offence and then having to face the long and often destructive criminal process prior to being told no charges are to be taken to court or securing an acquittal in a court can often be far worse than being found guilty.
Throughout this period it is quite probable that such a person is also regularly being demonised in the media and court of public opinion where there is no doubt everyone is guilty until proved innocent.
Only people who have been through “the system” like Sean T and me can begin to understand exactly what I mean.
To then find that one’s DNA is to be retained as though one is a convicted criminal to such a person tells them that neither the system nor society believes him/her to be innocent. The old “no smoke without fire” syndrome.
Finally, given the events of the past 2-3 years I would not trust this government to maintain the security of an invitation list to a childrens’ birthday party let alone something as sensitive as a national DNA database.
As with the gurkhas, the courts and/or parliament have spoken but this corrupt, criminal government thinks it is above the law. It thinks it can interpret the law as it sees fit, whether legal or not. It is time it is held to account.
Click to Edit (4 minutes and 21 seconds)
by Easterross May 7th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
From Previous Thread:
Morus said: ”I agree with all that’s been posted - it’s a prediction not a poll, and a completely barmy and useless one at that.”
Why do you say that?. Their methodology seems stop on to me, and their predictions match witht he opinion polls (allowing for UKIP to take some of the tory vote)
Its a well argued prediction, and shows how desperate the eurphobes/fascists are at their results sliding into oblivion
by JimPage
I don’t disagree with the whole methodology, just the generalisations in the all-important second step - “Put another way, in all previous European Parliament elections, opinion polls are reasonable predictors of party performance, but tend to overestimate support for large governing parties, and underestimate support for small parties and anti-European parties.” This is the Standard Uniform Error that they are seeking to correct.
I don’t accept the idea that even in one country you can claim this strong a trend. You are comparing different countries, different systems of election, different pollsters, different poling methodologies, different turnouts and filters, and different languages let alone questions. The idea of Uniform Error across European opinion polls is facile. Then the issue of definition: Small is a relative term (most parties are small in Germany), UKIP might be small here, but in government in Italy. Eurosceptic is difficult as well. In Ireland, Libertas are Eurosceptic, whereas over here they are attacked as being Europhiles.
So I don’t agree with the methodology, because I think it is bunkum in a rather important part, which is why I called it ‘useless’.
The reason I also called the prediction ‘barmy’ is because is reckons in the UK:
Con (31), Lab (27), LibDem (18), UKIP (7), Green (4.8), BNP (4.4), SNP (4.4), PC (3.6) = 100.2%
The idea that Labour will increase their vote more than the Conservatives increase on 2004, when there is no London Mayoral contest, and the shires have local elections rather than the cities is barmy.
The idea that Labour do almost 5 points better than 5 years ago is barmy.
The idea that the BNP will do worse than last time is barmy.
The idea that the SNP, running only in Scotland (8% of the electorate) will get 4.4% of the GB national vote is barmy, but not as barmy as thinking that Plaid Cymru will get 3.6% when only running in Wales which has about 6% of the electorate. Oh, and those countries aren’t great for turnout either, meaning nationalists would need over 60% of the vote in their one region, which is even more barmy.
Thinking that the parties not mentioned will amass 0% of the vote, rather than the 4%ish they managed last time is barmy.
Come to that, thinking that the main three parties will have gone from 64.2% in 2004 to 76% in 2009, when there is greater dissatisfaction in the country than for 20 years, is barmy.
I don’t particularly disagree with the seat allocations, but the way they are derived (from bogus vote share) means they are just invalid guesses.
I was going to write something about the europhobes/fascist barb that you cast at someone (me? I don’t know or care) but I can’t be bothered.
A great idea for a project, but there’s some voodoo in there too, which is why I wouldn’t give it house room until it gives up drugs.
Standing back for a moment, how extraordinary that a minister can be made to stand there and agree the words, demands and statements coming out of Joanna Lumley’s mouth - it is as if the government’s mandate and authority have utterly drained away and they continue to rule on a peculiar fancy.
66 - I’m not sure that it is that bad. I agree that the Conservatives need to be studied but the problem is that whilst the Labour government are flying apart at a rate of knots then you can forgive the media for being distracted.
Gabble and Tim.
This feels a bit like the weekend when smeargate blew up.
Your fear is palpable.
You are hanging your hats on some sort of economic recovery but its far too late for that.Im 96-97 the economy turned around even though 97 is regarded by GB as Year Zero, and it didnt do the Tories anygood ata all.The public wanted them out just as they now want Nulabour out.It may not be till next year but they will wait.
@32 (Peter2′)
Well, Saddleworth seems quite rural (classic Conservative territory, you would have thought)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddleworth
Unsure about Oldham East more generally.
36 - Thanks. I’ve just read. A full and elegant apology.
72. The headline writers are going to have a field day tomorrow. This is embarrassingly easy to write about!
The BBC’s take on this has changed:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8037181.stm
A sight more accurate, I’d say.
Incidentally, all those Tories who love to bash “Pravda” - endlessly and repeatedly - seem a bit one-eyed to me (and I want to see a destruction of the Guardian reading classes as much as the next patriotic Brit).
The truth is BBC editors change headlines every few hours, deliberately - so as to maintain impartiality. This is why an apparently favourable to-Labour line will usually be replaced by a “Tory-friendly” perspective in short order. And so on.
This is nothing to do with you guys bombarding the Beeb with complaints - sorry. It’s how the BBC works.
This doesn’t mean the BBC isn’t institutionally liberal-left: it is. And that needs to change.
If you haven’t got your swine flue leaflet yet, here is the latest info from the WHO. A pandemic is when lots of people catch the flu; if there is a pandemic of flu, lots of people will get it.
73 - I am enjoying the blood sport of watching Gordon Brown’s Government disintegrate (what is the male equivalent of tricoteuse?). Unlike almost every Conservative supporter on here, I will not be disappointed by David Cameron since I do not have unrealistic expectations of him in the first place. However, I would welcome a much clearer idea in many many areas of the likely future direction of this country than we’re currently getting. In this sense as in so many others, this is like 1996 in reverse.
@74 (Timmo)
I don’t think this is comparable to the Smeargate media frenzy.
Woolas will be laughed at by everyone for a day, but it won’t last a whole week unless some other screwup reveals itself.
79 - OH so they have changed from the “there is a severe risk to all of humanity” that they said in the first few days of the “crisis”.
70. Easterross. Excellent post!
Outlandish speculation time.
Hows this - Brown is aware of the general detail of the horrors to come in July in the expenses, he has been working behind the scenes to encourage some of the more horrific claimants he is aware of to ’step down’ at the coming election. His second trip to the Queen is to tee her up for a snap election on June 4.
Calls the election in the knowledge he will lose badly but he gets 200 Labour MPs in place for a parliament, to delay with what he knows is coming could perhaps wipe them out.
Cameron on the other hand has a full suite of MPs in, and most of his existing MPs are still there - including the bad eggs (there will surely be some) - Brown manages therefore to make the first story of the Cameron government a massive sleaze story on a topic which the public are very fired up about (Labour of course will say ‘oh our bad eggs have left parliament’) - thus he buys Labour time to recover and start to rebuild and damages Cameron early on.
84. If he was to do that, then wouldn’t he need to call the election PDQ? Does he even have time to do it?
80 - I don’t have unreaslistic expectations. I just understand the political imperatives that make Cameron policy cautious, he isn’t going to offer himself up to the Labour spinners to twist and distort. I think the tone and general direction that Cameron will pursue are reasonably clear.
71. Splendid fisking, Morus. Though JimPage, as an obvious troll/nutter, is rather unworthy of yr efforts.
84 - Knowing Gordo’s luck the high profile and worst offending “bad eggs” will surprisingly hold on to their seats
85 I think he can call it Monday and be in time
75 The vote totals in the 3 Saddleworth seats in the 2008 locals were :-
LibDem 5191 Con 3297 Lab 1403
85. In theory minimum election time is 17 days. He could do it (and it could be a very sensible strategy imho, nice thinking dyed) but I don’t see it as likely.
Here’s a great way to ascertain the demographics of areas if you’re interested in a particular unfamiliar constituency: use Google Street View!
For example, I’ve just been trying to look at a few of the main roads in Oldham East to try to find out how many of the shop signs are in Urdu. Unfortunately for some bizarre reason Street View doesn’t seem to work there (although most of Manchester is fine).
79. FR but that’s not right because my leaflet says:
Pandemic Flu is different from ordinary flu because it’s a new flu virus that appears in humans and spreads very quickly from person to person worldwide.
So from that I assume. Ordinary flu is not a pandemic. It is not transmitted quickly and it is not transmitted from human to human across international borders. As for the relative levels of fatality well…….
From the last thread …..
How on earth can the BBC justify these two conflicting headlines?
“Gurkha campaigners ‘reassured’”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8038446.stm
Then …..
“Lumley in public clash on Gurkhas”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8037181.stm
“(something only slightly less daemonic than being homophobic or racist in the BBC’s eyes).” - you missed out ‘global warming denier’ which is one stage worse than being a paedophile as far as the beeb are concerned.
Speaking of which …
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/06/the-global-warming-hypothesis-and-ocean-heat/
Former chief health officer says all precautions v. swine flu are wrong. As it is obviously very mild, it would be better for people to catch it now and so have an immunity for when it returns in the winter.
Now I’ve got another post stuck in the spam trap. Does it pick us out by random?
Personally, I am still picking myself up off the floor from “Fred-sized” debt that they are spinning. Utterly amazing and totally disingenuous, it is only “20p” per billion and we never have to pay it back anyway!
78: The way I see it Sean, is that(especially on the website) some underling pravaite writes the orginal piece, then it gets reviewed a little bit later with a lot of the biased headlines etc changed to be a bit more rounded. The ‘Dave the miser’ headline another prime example.
I think most of the senior BBCoids do want to remain as impartial as they can, but their own views sometimes get in the way and they get it wrong. They don’t mean to, but it just happens.
91 no, I don;t see it as likely either, but the thougt was running around my head all afternoon - what if he knows just how bad the expenses thing will be? His reaction in interview ‘I am doing something about it, me , me ,me’ was very odd in its insistence..
What I mean is, if he knows it is a sh!tstorm, he needs to go before surely and buy 5 years for whoever survives?
So if no election is called by Monday - next stop October?
75 - That whole area has been a tory free zone for years.
I don’t think they have any local councillors in the constituency.
100 - He ain’t going in October.
86 - I’m not criticising David Cameron’s strategy. I’d follow it too if I were him. That doesn’t mean that it’s good for the country if he gets away with it.
I look forward to the 2013 edition of pb.com. I wonder what the complexion of the site will be then? Will loyal Tories be as thin on the ground as loyal Labour supporters are now? I have more than a hunch that the disaffected blues will be rather more substantial in number than at present.
98 - That Dave The Miser headline was up for 2 days before they changed it! The day before the speech and the day of it, it still read Miser. Only the Monday did I notice it had been changed.
How many editorial shift changes were over that period, and not one thought hmm, that sounds a bit bias!
103 - Oh doubtless there will be those that peel away.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2009/05/gordons_run.cfm
100 well, he’s have to combine with the Euros (think of the waste of money otherwise!) so it would have to be called by Monday week (18th), otherwise yeah, October/November or May 6th 2010.
@93 (Jim M)
Both headlines are plausible, although the second is a truer synopsis of what happened. I agree with seanT. I don’t think the BBC is as biased as it is often made out to be here.
The problems I have with the Beeb are more concerned with it being bland and stupid rather than biased. They have too many presenters who are too happy to take the word of politicians as gospel, who aren’t quite quick enough to ask the obvious follow-up question, who completely miss the point. You can tell the ones who read the blogs daily and who are genuine news junkies (in whatever their area is meant to be) from the ones who just see it as another day at the office.
That said, I think Robinson is truly awful. Give Kuennsberg that job!
99
Gordon has already DONE something about expenses:- he made a You Tube video and … got the HOC to vote..
I know that politics changes every week but even I at 95 years old
remember last week’s news…
99 The risk, of course, is that the fabled CD pops up during the election campaign - complete with all the bits they have tried to edit out. It would totally dominate the media coverage. But maybe that is better than people talking about Labour’s record on the economy?
99 - I’ve heard two rumours.
One regarding a top Labour man and and one regarding a top Tory.
But as SeanT has admitted in the past.
If Cammo the millionaire has been claiming for a light bulb and so on he’ll attack him like he attacked the bathplug.
(I know, of course he won’t but we’ll see)
103
I no doubt in the future will be saying words to the effect that “a;; politicians are the same”. I say it now…. They are .. some are just worse than others…
O/T Hard Sell?
Dalai Lama urges lawmakers to be honest
http://www.buffalonews.com/nationalworld/state/story/663637.html
His Holiness was invited to deliver invocation at start of yesterday’s New York state senate deliberations.
Excerpts from story:
‘ALBANY—State lawmakers were urged Wednesday to practice honesty, respect and openness, traits long advocated by government reform groups.
This time, the message was delivered in person by the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibet and Nobel Peace laureate. …
After a brief prayer, the Dalai Lama, 73, who has lived in exile in India for 50 years, told the packed crowd in the ornate chamber that he wanted “to show my deep respect about American values — liberty, justice, democracy.” ….
Compassion should be the “primary mover of our activities in order to be constructive,” he said. “Compassion brings us inner strength.”
The Dalai Lama also stressed the importance of “transparency,” something usually lacking in the Capitol.
Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos, a Long Island Republican whose party lost control of the Senate in January, noted the Dalai Lama’s work for minority groups. “You protect the interests of minorities in Tibet. Certainly, we ask that you pray for this minority,” he said as the crowd laughed.
The Dalai Lama later looked out over the Republican side of the chamber. “The feeling is to side with minorities, so my sympathies would be more [with the] Republican side,” he said. Republican lawmakers jumped from their chairs and applauded.
But the Dalai Lama quickly waved them off. “Just a joke, just a joke, not serious,” he said.’
As anyone who has met or heard the Dalai Lama can attest, he is truly a jolly friar. BTW, by happenstance the nearest church to my own humble abode is a Thibetan Buddist congregation; their building (which formerly belonged to a protestant demomination) is painted bright yellow with red trim. Even better, has a circle of prayer wheels, which I like to give a whirl when needful.
110, well, quite, its a risk he might feel he needs to take.
19 Yes, I remember last week too - what I am mulling is why he is doing what he is doing - is it manouvering for a purpose, or is it just reactive stuff?
93, 98. No, I think you are wrong. I am pretty sure there is a DELIBERATE policy at the BBC of writing a pro-government headline, which they then swap with a government-hostile headline (or vice versa), and so on and so forth. To preserve impartiality.
That’s why you get such contrary perspectives one one story in just a few hours.
I know this is true for the BBC website, it may well be true for other parts of the corporation.
Of course you could argue that headlines/stories should have no bias at all, but that is pretty hard to do! Someone will always perceive a subtle spin somewhere.
I reckon the BBC does a decent job news-wise, especially now they have stopped being so absurdly europhile.
These days the real liberal-left bias exists elsewhere in the corporation - in drama, and current affairs, and arts coverage, etc, which are just drenched in Guardianista attitudes, and need to be purged.
111 - They’re all at it. You heard it here first. It has been denied by almost every politician on all sides and by almost every journalist whose daily bread depends on the drivellings of politicians. But they’re all at it. It’s a corrupt system controlled by MPs who refuse to take responsibility for the corruption that they themselves have permitted to take place.
Sadly, there’s no modern day Heracles to divert the Thames to clear the Augean stables.
Phil Woolas = Alan Carr?
@103 (tim)
There seem to be 2 Conservative councillors. On the whole though you’re right, it seems solid Lib Dem territory.
http://www.parishcouncil.saddleworth.org/councillors.html
Paperclipgate - who lobbed a paper clip at Salmond at First Minister’s questions? Reports suggest that it came from the direction of the Scottish Libdems….was no one wearing their sandals?
On the premise that this is a scandal of major proportions, and if I follow a certain posters predictions, it should be a nailed certainty that all Libdem MSP’s will lose at the next Scottish elections.
85 et. al. I thought it had been noted on the previous thread that HMQ was out of town today, ego. no Palace Mercy Dash?
71 - Easterross.
Interesting post.
I thought I heard today that Tory policy is to keep DNA of the innocent for up to five years.
Is that true?
120 - I think this district is one of the old Nonconformist Liberal areas from aeons ago.
112. Poor Tim. You will be disappointed. Cameron’s expenses have already been published.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/1583879/Expenses-of-party-leaders-revealed.html
For those who think I’m being a bit hard on the EU predictor, I am - it’s only the second step of their five methodological steps that is screwy.
It would be better presented as a model where you could enter your own vote shares for the countries you know - sense-checked - to produce a result.
People think this is worth an article on Saturday or not?
119 - I’m afraid Alan Carr isn’t in the same league as Woolas on the comedy front, Woolas is definitely Premier League material
120 - I was referring to the Oldham Metropolitan Council
113. If Cammo claimed for an 88p plug, I would protest - but his sin simply wouldn’t be as venal as Jack-off’s.
Smith’s greed was so objectionable because of all the other shit attached to her case: she was already raking in £300k a year from the taxpayer, she is the Home Secretary, her husband was having government-sponsored wanks, she was fraudulently claiming her bedsit as a palace etc etc etc.
Basically any corruption is worse if it is revealed within the government, as compared to the opposition, because the government has all the power and responsibility and control of our taxes.
But if Cameron gets into power and THEN claims for his Choco Hob Nobs I will certainly be on his case.
126 - It would be fun if pb could collectively compile its own guesstimates in some countries at least (27 would be too much hard work). Fun, but probably not achievable.
123 - Come on TIM Bot, can’t you read Pravda website from your shitty bedsit?
“The Tories say they would adopt the Scottish system.”
SCOTTISH SITUATION
DNA sample on arrest
If cleared, profile deleted
If cleared of serious sexual or violent offence, profile kept for maximum of five years
System praised by European Court of Human Rights
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8038090.stm
Which in my book sounds fair, and a complete world away from the Stalin-esque system in place under the current government, and who just won’t properly change it, even though the courts have ruled against them and told them to do so.
96 Trevorsden
I expect its because the BBC has been deluged with complaints post Toenails 6pm news piece
131 - As I said.
The Tories would also keep the DNA of the innocent.
133 - Which bit of,
“If cleared, profile deleted”
don’t you understand?
If you are arguing it is keep while they are on remand, come on stop being a tit! Yes you are technically innocent until proven guilty, but it is a legal limbo, and what you take the sample, then destroy it, then retest?
Also, I’m saying personally, I can see the use of DNA evidence etc, and that we need some sort of system, and as described the Scottish system seems fair enough to me. Maybe you can provide a compelling argument against it?
O/T. An anonymous Poll Troll on Guido claims a leaked poll from Tory party shows:
Cons 48
Lab 24
LD 17
Believable? Dunno. Private poll? Dunno.
Anybody heard anything from a credible source?
Channel 4 News leading on the extra £50 billion QE - saying the first £75 billion hasn’t worked…
126. Morus no I don’t think you were too harsh. I do think you might have given it a little too much respect by responding so fully but this is a betting site so providing detail is relevant.
An article about there predictor? No definitely not. As you said:
but the way they are derived (from bogus vote share) means they are just invalid guesses.
Given their obvious political bias (the fascist comment) as well, it does not deserve any consideration
When they come back with something more credible than wishful thinking then and only then give it some credit……….
there=their
135 You gov are polling about now, but Guido posters are not credible. Ignore for the time being.
135. Certainly believable, given the week Labour have had.
But caveat emptor with Guido-comments, natch.
I personally doubt the Tory lead is over 20.
126- But what good is the model if you have to correct it for the countries you know? What about the countries you DON’T know; who will correct them? It seems about as good as throwing darts at a map. Sounds better to just not waste one’s time with it and either find a better resource or, heaven forfend, go to the park and fly a kite with the spare time thus saved.
Channel Four News - first headline is the Bank of England decision to print another £50 billion, presented as a shock. Second one is the Gurhkas, and they started off with
“Why did the government put those famous Gurhka knives to their own throat?”
Off to do some canvassing - think I will get a friendlier reception tonight than any Labour canvassers will.
105.”I look forward to the 2013 edition of pb.com. I wonder what the complexion of the site will be then? Will loyal Tories be as thin on the ground as loyal Labour supporters are now? I have more than a hunch that the disaffected blues will be rather more substantial in number than at present.”
antifrank, I don’t know about 2013 as a random date, but I would agree with the rest of your post. Lets face it, if we are consistent, its bound to happen with the previous form we have.
Laura K spilling the beans. She virtually tracked down Woolas in the BBC building. What she did in the BBC room was far tougher than the news conference.
“We are going to help with new guide lines” - she was making an offer that could not be refused, with all the heartfelt warmth of Don Corleone.
135 - I would rather get my poll predictions from throwing darts in a board than by trusting an anonymous poster on a Guido thread.
OT - from today’s “Playbook” on Politico.com
DRIVING THE CONVERSATION — The cover of Time has the Republican Party’s elephant logo and the headline, “Endangered Species.” The package — showing a tuckered-out elephant resting on a park bench — includes:
—“How the Republicans Lost Their Way,” by Michael Grunwald: “Republicans actually have plenty of ideas. That’s the problem. The party’s ideas — about economic issues, social issues and just about everything else — are not popular ideas. They are extremely conservative ideas tarred by association with the extremely unpopular George W. Bush, who helped downsize the party to its extremely conservative base. A hard-right agenda of slashing taxes for the investor class, protecting marriage from gays, blocking universal health insurance and extolling the glories of waterboarding produces terrific ratings for Rush Limbaugh, but it’s not a majority agenda. … [A] 2012 presidential candidate could catch lightning in a bottle, Reagan-style or Susan Boyle-style — although when you think about it, Republicans found a nationally admired war hero with proven bipartisan appeal in 2008, and he lost to an inexperienced black liberal with a funny name.”
—“How They Can Come Back,” by [former GOP congressman] Joe Scarborough: Edmund “Burke’s thinking can be summed up easily: Respect reality. Understand the age you’re living in, and understand its facts. … If the GOP is to move toward victory, it must again find the middle of American political life and stop being seen the way liberals were viewed for a generation: as tone-deaf ideologues mixed with self-consumed radicals. … The time for restraint is upon us — at home, abroad, in our markets and toward our environment.”
144.Laura k turning out to be a fine political investigative journalist for the Beeb. Much like Robinson used to be like at ITN.
135. Just for fun, those poll figures, when BAXTERED, give a Tory majority of… 264 seats.
The Labour and LD parliamentary contingents are both more than halved.
133 See this is why you are such a perfect representative of New Labour, Tim, you happily misconstrue the true position of anyone who doesn’t agree with you. What you don’t get is that people arent stupid and this is what they are sick of, so just you keep doing what you are doing as you make the anyone but Labour point day after day after day, good lad.
147 - Has Toenails signed off for his shift? Gone home to watch “Gordo’s Greatest Moments” DVD to cheer himself up?
137 - I’m not going to hold the fascist comment against them, as I have no idea if JimPage is in anyway associated with them.
You’re probably right that it doesn’t merit an article though.
I might try and pursuade Double Carpet to have a bash at predicting vote shares for each country though - we could run that through a calculator and try and beat them at their own game!!
How much do you reckon Burson-Marsteller are prepared to stake on those predictions?!
Frazer doing what he does best, figures,
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3596291/the-poverty-brownie.thtml
Wonder what dear Polly would make of the figures?
“So on today’s figures 200,000 more children have been “plunged into poverty” since 2004-05″
They haven’t really, but they have according to the official measure that Gordo goes on about!
144/147. I totally agree BBC has a young talent there.
149 - The Tories will keep the DNA of innocent people.
Whats your point?
98/78
I disagree with you Slackbladder and SeanT on this; the BBC is institutionally Leftist.
It has been that way been since the BBC gave up speaking what we used to call Oxford English, and started to use regional accents in the early 1970’s. Somehow the Corporation got swallowed up by leftwing graduates leaving Universities (and joining the BBC) as the Vietnam war was coming to an end.
It’s been leftwing ever since. END THE LICENSE FEE!
141 - Yeah, that penny dropped jut after I published!!
Robert Fox, Gurkhas mercenaries, tens of thousands of them, bad for Nepal, too expensive for us, if we let them in will not be able to afford body armour for our boys.
“How much do you reckon Burson-Marsteller are prepared to stake on those predictions?!”
Rough guess: 0.
OK I’m off out to celebrate Tom Knox’s RETURN to the top three of the Bookseller Heatseeker charts, fully nine weeks after publication.
http://www.thebookseller.com/charts.html
You just can’t keep him down. Chin chin.
Gurkhas story most read on BBC news website.
So weathercock, would you prefer it if it was stuffed to the gunwales with pompous middle class oxbridge twats who are totally alien to the vast majority of the British people ??
People like James ‘w@nker’ Delingpole and that obnoxious Simon Heffer, who makes a pompous solicitor appear attractive and sexy ?
146- None of this fretting about ideology is going to matter, in any real way, until it is time to choose another presidential nominee. Until then, things will evolve organically. That will be the thing to watch. That said, I appreciate why such articles are now being written ad nauseam: it gives the left a masturbatory sort of pleasure to read such things.
155. End the license fee and have to put up with ITV current affairs? I’d rather have bias that I know about than Jeremy Kyle.
James Burdett May 7th, 2009 at 6:07 pm “QT tonight looks like one to miss. Iain Gray, Nicola Sturgeon, Lord Steel, Nadine Dorries, and Bruce Anderson.”
Nadine chewed up the misogynistic Brute Anderson a few weeks back, so expect some sparks between them!
But overall it is a Scottish edition.
John Major opens up on Gordon…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/5292339/John-Major-on-Gordon-Brown-Britain-must-be-put-first.html
75-The old Littleborough & Saddleworth used to be a safeish Tory seat till lost in a by-election in 1995. It then disappeared.
Looking at the locals since 2005:
2006 L 19% C 18% LD 44%
2007 L 25% C 15% LD 53%
2008 L 20% C 24% LD 52%
and 2004 all out (only highest)
L 23% C 23% LD 40%
usual caveats on the above, but an LD score of over 55% and Labour less than 20% in the locals could make the seat less than safe. Woolas only had an 8% lead on the 2005 boundaries.
162 - C4 programming isn’t bad, and they don’t have a license fee!
Whats wrong with the BBC on a similar model? Have a remit they have to adhere to (unlike now when Mr Labourite Lyons lets them get away with murder, well nearly murder, cheating, smearing, etc), but funded through advertising?
143. ChristinaD
I shall be onto contrary Tory policies and misdeeds in 2013 in the same way I attack Labours antics today.
No party is above criticism in my book, but then again I aint a Tory.
155
It has been that way been since the BBC gave up speaking what we used to call Oxford English, and started to use regional accents”
I personally prefer accents from most parts of the UK rather than having to listen to excitable thick southern english ones all the time
@163:
Nicola Sturgeon’s an excellent up-and-comer and Mad Nad is Mad Nad. Couldn’t give a flying tossponce about the other two.
Soldiers
There once was a veteran Gurkha
Who rattled the old gurning smirker
He made Gordon Brown
Back clumsily down
While Woolas hid inside a burqa
P.S. Talking of soldiers, Happy 9000th Birthday today to His Royal Gorgeousness Hunky Harry the Cheeky Chappie (Naughty but Nice)
154 My point is Labour will keep the DNA of all innocent people Forever
And the Tories will keep virtually none for 5 years, and most will be immediately deleted.
And my other point is that you deceive as easily as you breath and that is why you perfectly represent New Labour.
167 - well said, wibbler. If only all posters were as concise.
160-Why not? But better just to abolish the licence fee and then it can become a British version of MSNBC.
tim, do you think you might manage to post the same message fewer than ten times every thread?
@173.
.
172 - Not true.
Please read the differing policies.
They differ in degree not principle.
177 - Terribly sorry but voreas seems confused.
OT - Sarah Palin’s numbers drop in Alaska
Results of survey by Hays Research, an Anchorage polling firm, May 4-5 telephone survey, n= 400, moa= 4.9%
Here are results (in parathesis are results to same question back in October 2008)
Question: Would you say you feel positive or negative about Sarah Palin? And is that very (positive or negative) or somewhat (positive or negative)?
Very positive 30.5% (46.8%)
Somewhat positive 23.5% (15.6%)
Somewhat negative 16.8% (12.1%)
Very negative 24.8% (21.4%)
Don’t know/refused 4.4% (4.1%)
Total positive 54.0% (62.4%)
Total negative 41.6% (33.5%)
Net Pos v Neg +12.4% (+28.9%)
NOTE that back in July, 2008 the same pollsters found that Alaskans gave Palin a total favorable rating of 80% compared with just 16% unfavorable
Clearly Gov. Palin’s numbers have dropped significantly in her own baliwick.
Note that the legislature has been in session, and the Gov has had to deal with some difficult state issues. But my guess is that part of the decline stems from her status as tribune for the rightwing in the Lower 48.
http://www.haysresearch.com/oc050509.htm
165 Peter2. Do you have the figures for the locals in the years 02/03/04 ?
164. Well they say revenge is a dish best served cold….
175
Tim cant do that, he is a smear merchant, its in his make up. Ghastly as it is, he represents everything that is New Labour and why it will be destroyed
177 - I for one am not at all comfortable with the Conservatives’ position. I am appalled by Labour’s position.
160. You are really Down the pan.
The newsreaders in those days were not toffs or upper class, just well spoken and well educated readers. THE EDITORSHIP WAS FAIRLY IMPARTIAL TOO.
I guess you prefer to illiterate deadbeats we have on many programs these days. Poor you.
180 - I think these interventions are more powerful because Major makes them so rarely.
182 - Whats the Lib Dem position?
177 Thats like arguing that cutting someones hair is the same as cutting someones head off(which is probably labour policty for not having an ID card or something).
Why did Lumley think Brown would tell her the truth anyway? He can’t tell the difference anymore.More importantly, this particular issue doesn’t help the 10,600 ex-Gurkhas who are pensioners of the Gurkha Welfare Trust. We have another 30 years or so of providing for them. For a mere £8million or so a year, the Government could make this into a victory for themselves.
185 - I have no idea. Perhaps you could find out for me. It would be amusing to see you do someone else’s research rather than expect it to work the other way around.
183- That highlights a good point. I’d be willing to bet that the declining literacy and critical thinking skills of readers/viewers has a lot to do with the lazy partisanship that passes for real news these days. Readers in day of yore would have seen the BS and expected better. No more.
164.Wow, Major going for the jugular there. Is this phase 2?
He has very rarely spoken out on politics since 97′, and always picks his moments with amazing political astuteness and precision. And yet again, those that try to put Brown in Major’s league insult the last Conservative PM.
“After 12 years in office, excuses such as this are bordering on the desperate.
Why do they do it? Habit, of course, for fact has never got in the way of New Labour fiction – it has been in their DNA since the mid-1990s. But now it seems they have lost all touch with reality: in their minds, what they say is truth, even if the facts don’t support it. Such delusion is dangerous – especially for a government.
And it is continual. Since the Prime Minister can no longer defend Labour policies, he attacks a fictional Tory past at almost every Prime Minister’s Questions. To Mr Brown, the Tories are the enemy, therefore any criticism – however wrong or distorted – is permissible. Let us take one of his familiar attacks on David Cameron, flawed from beginning to end. According to Mr Brown, Mr Cameron was adviser to Norman Lamont when he raised interest rates to 15 per cent, and created three million unemployed. This is ludicrous. The belief that a 26-year-old political adviser would have been responsible for a Conservative government’s economic policies is fanciful. And – in any event – how does Mr Brown know what advice Mr Cameron offered his minister? He may well have advised against the government’s policies and been over-ruled.
But Mr Brown doesn’t care: he simply wants to smear Mr Cameron for events over which he knows he had no control. The premise of his argument is also incorrect: interest rates were not raised to 15 per cent by Norman Lamont in the 1990s, but by Nigel Lawson in the 1980s. As chancellor, Norman reduced them from 14 per cent to 6 per cent.
The Prime Minister is wrong about unemployment, too. First, a pedantic point: it did not reach three million under the Conservative government, but peaked well below. Furthermore, it was rising sharply long before Norman Lamont became chancellor, and David Cameron his adviser. Mr Brown knows all this, yet persists with charges that are fundamentally unworthy.
And he is not alone. Other ministers continue to claim that Labour inherited three million unemployed whereas, in 1997, the claimant count was 1.6 million and falling rapidly.
But Labour has not won three elections by allowing truth to get in the way of a good smear. The uncomfortable reality for Labour is that, however unpopular the last Conservative administration may have been, it was the only government in the last 50 years to leave office with every single economic indicator improving.
In 1996-7, the economy had been growing for five years, and borrowing – now the nation’s nemesis – was £22 billion (although one of Labour’s “recalculations” upped it to £35 billion).
Even so, the estimate for the current year is a staggering £175 billion. Similarly, total debt has doubled, and the taxpayer will be funding Labour’s debt mountain for many years to come.
That the Conservatives bequeathed such a buoyant economy is not a truth universally acknowledged, for – in order to claim credit for the economy – Labour has peddled “disinformation” about its inheritance from the day it took office. The truth – apparent to independent economists – is that the years of prosperity under Labour were based on Conservative supply side changes (in the 1980s) and Tory destruction of inflation (in the 1990s).
Did Labour build on that legacy? No. Instead, they squandered it, and will leave the country near bankrupt as a result. This slide from riches to rags inspires another Labour deception: that our present woes are entirely due to the financial crisis that began in America. Of course, there is an international dimension, but Labour’s alibi is – at best – a half-truth. Even if there had been no international crisis, the UK would still be in recession; our debts would still be at record levels; our pension system would still be wrecked; our education system would still need reform; our health system would still be unable to cope; and our prison system would still be overflowing with inmates who should not be there, while others who should are being released early.”
179-Not off hand! But the Oldham Borough web page breaks down all elections by ward from 2000. New boundaries from 2004.
http://www.oldham.gov.uk/council/elections/election-results.htm
Tim=Spanner as Ave it 09 would say…
151. Morus. Doing something on the other EU countries would possibly be of interest to some. However, I doubt BM would stake anything given the inaccuracy of their predictions in 2004.
164. Excellent piece from John Major. Let’s hope he gets some TV coverage on the same topic in the near future.
184. Yes. In some ways Sir John was the main person that brought Browns honeymoon to an end in 2007. It was he that went on the news and brought Brown to book when he flew to Iraq in the middle of the Conservative conference. From there it was down hill all the way.
161, S&S - you do have a point about GOP angst being the flavor of the season for the chattering classes.
But speaking of potentially climactic results, what about 2010 midterms? Surely they will amount to more than wasted seed upon baren ground?
194 - I’d forgotten that Major had slated Brown on that.
They can move on but:
a) It has left a bit of a bad taste and in the eyes of some helps create or reinforce the personality of the government
b) Will Brown actually get a response right this time? He’s taken ownership now so he had better.
189. Too true S&S.
188 - http://campaigns.libdems.org.uk/dna
Could be Labours policy, could be Tories.
Bit unclear.
My point is, all parties will keep the DNA of innocent people it seems.
Notion that admitting Gurkhas into UK will be bad for Nepal (repeated somewhere above) ignores strong potential for remintances to the old country. Which is very significant.
191 Peter2. Thanks for the link. As I noted on the previous thread Woolas has strong stickability despite the best efforts of the yellow peril.
(An Off-Topic Poem)
Hunkwatch
Eight o’clock on Thurday night
Gorgeous muscles bulging tight
Gabriel Thomson can be seen
“My Family” is on the screen
Handsome, cute, with nice deep voice
All the viewers make their choice
Not much to do with this Pee Bee
But deffo worth the licence fee
199 and my point about that is its like arguing that cutting someones hair is the same as cutting someones head off.
See I can repeat as well.
195- Right, but 2010 will be about Obama and, to a lesser extent, the congressional Dems. That’s why all of these philosophical discussions won’t amount to much before at least 2011. In the meantime, many of these questions will resolve themselves as the GOP reacts to events over the next few years.
By the way, I’m not sure what exactly the left is dreaming of here. Do you really want to see the demise of the GOP? If it were to die, it would undoubtedly be replaced by something else. The last time such a thing happened, the “new” party came to national power within a matter of a few years after the demise of the “old” party, and dominated the Washington scene for seventy years!
Just done a Yougov. Lots of voting intention and other political questions, including one asking which song best describes Gordon?
I chose ’sorry seems the hardest word’.
194.&196.He was a man on a mission that day, IIRC, he gave live interviews to all the main news/radio channels.
198, previous - In my reading of Brit politics, was impressed by how past media moguls (for example Lord Beaverbrook) were quite willing to slant the coverage of their organs (in more ways than one) BUT also gave scope for opposing views, particularly by columnists. This was esp. true for broadsheets, but also occured with more popular publications.
203 - I realise that.
But it made no sense the second time around either.
Very astute comment by John Major in the daily Telegraph
In recent days, there have been many comparisons drawn between the present plight of the Labour Government and the final months of its Conservative predecessor. Similarities there may be – but the differences are striking.
The Conservatives were in their 18th year of government: Labour is in its 12th. The Conservatives had no majority, and were at the mercy of a handful of rebels: Labour still enjoys a large majority. Conservative divisions were over policy – notably Europe – in which the dissenters believed they must prevail for the national interest: Labour has no such excuse. And – crucially – the Tory economy was well on track to full vigour: Labour’s is in the mire.
206 - I do remember now, but a lot has happened since then!
205.
That will probably be the Sunday Times poll.
209.TimG, the fact that Major rarely intervenes in the political debate adds weight to his intervention now. In fact, it sounds like he ain’t going to let Brown and his government get away with their spin on our economy.
210.IIRC, Mike Smithson was told by a Senior Labour politician that Major’s intervention that day was the most damaging moment before the bottled GE. Apologies if I am not quite correct, sure Mike will come along and correct me if needed.
Aren’t you ashamed tim, making party political points, while poor Nick is worried sick about the Gurkhas ?
151. I dont have a link at all with this Prediction, just bringing it to peoples attention
For BNP watchers out there, getting in some big numbers of County Council candidates fpr them, full slate of 75 in Essex, 48 in Leicestershire and 41 in Cumbria so far
209 Tim G. Superficially accurate. In the 12th year of the Tory government we had the coup against Maggie in all its fine history and implimentation. Neither was the economy in great shape to say the least and of course Major had been tonking Edwina !!
208 cutting someones hair is not the same as cutting some ones head off and neither is holding very few innocent peoples DNA for 5 years the same as holding everyones for 12 years(and perpetuity if the had their way).
204, S&S - good point about 2010 being about Obama more than GOP, but my guess is that 2012 could see similar dynamic. But of course part of equation in both cases is the GOP reaction to the Big O.
Personally do NOT want to see demise of GOP. And believe that it’s VERY difficult to kill off a major party in a “mature” political system.
For example, up in the Great White North, appeared that voters had put stake through heart of Canuck Tories in punishment for sins of Brian Mulrooney. Yet today the PM in Ottawa is Conservative Stephen Harper.
Closer to (my) home, here in Seattle being a Republican is not exactly the path to social acceptance. Yet about 16% of voters actually voted for McCain. Of course the had protection of secret ballot. Yet thousand were willing to publically brand themselves, by taking GOP ballot (publically recorded) in our March 2008 presidential primary.
And up in Capital Hill neighborhood - a liberal bastion even by Seattle standards - saw a car with a Dino Rossi bumpersticker!
BTW, Dino surfaced recently, following his not-even-close defeat in 2008 gubernatorial rematch versus Gov. Chris Gregoire. He participated in competive spring roll eating contest for charity. And lost again. Clear he didn’t have the stomach for it . . .
217 - Again you are confused.
Its not 12 years for everyone.
But we can all agree on a few things.
All parties will keep innocent peoples DNA.
And all parties will allow the Police to DNA test those under arrest and test them against unsolved crimes even though they may not be charged with the original offence.
215 JimPage. Another by-product of the governments early prison release scheme !!
216. All history now JackW. Try to stay in the present century.
219 - True, it is extremely bad. If you are innocent of something really nasty your DNA will be kept for longer than if you are innocent of something less nasty. So according to Jacqui, being innocent of murder is worse than being innocent of something less than murder. Just what sort of insane person can come up with that…
218- Being from Washington (the State of), do you see any hope for the GOP there in the foreseeable future, at any level?
Yeah, shame, isn’t it? Poor Woolas, eh? Ahahahahahaha.
221 weathercock. “All history now JackW.”
For Jacobites it’s a moment in time !!
Way Off Topic -
Here is one pointy-headed liberal Democratic supporter of gay equality including marriage, who is willing to defend MISS CALIFORNIA and hopes she keeps her crown.
Of which she’s in jeopardy for 1) saying at Miss USA pagent (in answer to question) she is opposed to gay marriage; and 2) having possed semi-nude (side view only, nothing worth writing home about) prior to pagents.
Find deeply offensive the whole notion that anyone who has religious objection to gay marriage must be hounded out of public life and/or publically shamed.
As for her supposed moral lapse re: photos, that’s also a load of phoney balonney. Particularly since Photoshop, etc make it so easy to doctor pixs (though she’s admitted to one semi-nude one).
Somewhat more legit are charges that she’s violated the terms of her contract with pagent (owned by that great moralist, Donald Trump) by publically advocating anti-gay marriage platform since the controversy errupted. BUT she did this in her own megachurch. AND she’s been provoked.
Don’t have to agree with the lass to wish her fair play and bon chance.
Classic Matt cartoon….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
tim has been reading from the same script as Hattie
Harriet Harman provoked astonishment today as she accused campaigners opposed to the Government’s DNA database policy of ‘putting themselves against justice.’
The deputy Labour leader waded into the row over the storage of vast numbers of innocent citizens’ genetic profiles, claiming anyone who wanted to limit the size of the controversial database was undermining the cause of justice itself.
Her outburst came as the Government faced mounting criticism over planned reforms of the DNA crime-fighting database which it published earlier this week in response to a devastating defeat in the European Court of Human Rights.
Judges in Strasbourg ruled that the policy of storing genetic fingerprint data indefinitely from anyone arrested in England and Wales - even if they are entirely innocent - was disproportionate and illegal.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1178429/Fury-Harriet-Harman-claims-opponents-DNA-database-justice.html
Classic Matt cartoon..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
222 -The Tory policy is based on the same principle.
We’re not arguing principles here James.
The Tory policy is if you’re innocent of a serious crime your DNA will be kept, if you’re innocent of a less serious crime it won’t but while you’re innocent of either serious or non serious ( ie under arrest) your DNA can be taken and matched against unsolved crimes.
If we can agree that the parties essentially don’t differ on things like DNA retention and biometric passports, can the Bunker boys please STFU and start preparing for a Conservative victory? If the similarities are indeed as you’ve repeatedly, tiresomely and excruciatingly tediously written, a change of government shouldn’t bother you at all.
Strong rumours going around that one of tomorrow’s papers has a big expenses scandal involving several ministers.
227 Obviously it is all becoming a bit too much for batty hattie……
227 - Thats a different point than I’ve been arguing.
Thats to do with the size of the database rather than the principles behind it.
WE GET IT, NOW SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!
230 - On those two issues the difference in policy doesn’t bother me in the slightest, you are right.
PLEASE use the subjunctive when writing this website! Unfortunately PoliticalBetting.com must rank as one of the most badly-written of sites that I read. ‘IF IT WERE, not IF IT WAS!!!!’
RBH = Yes2DNADatabase.
@232 (Don)
Thanks!
can anybody who replies to tim please explain in five sentences or fewer exactly why they bother. You are wasting your time and our bandwidth, please stop.
As a reply to Dr Palmer -
The twisting of the Government under the knife is enjoyable on two counts. Firstly, the longer it goes on, the more profound the climbdown will have to be - the Gurhkas will get a very good deal in the end. Secondly, this is a perfect example of the stupidity and incompetence of those attempting to run the country. They are being hoisted by their own petard - spin will be the death of them, alright.
226- The ultra-liberal mayor of San Francisco, and current California gubernatorial candidate, agrees with you (and clearly disagrees with Perez Hilton and his supporters):
Mayor Newsom re: Carrie Prejean: “I want to challenge her on her point of view, but she spoke her conscience, I think she’s being a little unfairly maligned.”
It’s funny that you and Newsom can be generous enough to take this view, but that nevertheless media types like Larry King have spun Perez Hilton as the victim here and Prejean as the perpetrator.
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Mayor-Newsom-has-a-New-Crush.html
The media are completely deaf and clueless when it comes to respecting any sensibilities other then their own (left-wing) sensibilities. You’d think this was a country where everybody endorsed gay marriage, instead of a country where most people still oppose it! This is a great issue to illustrate the extremism of the media. I mean, how can the media maintain credibility when they view the MAJORITY as so far out of the mainstream that they should be, as you say, publicly shamed and driven out of public life?
232 - Ooh that could be interesting.
227
What a surprise. A young toff makes her name for herself as a ‘civil liberties campaigner’. She then turns herself into a working class hero to secure that safe seat she has absolutely no affinity for. She then takes twenty odd years to get noticed and what does she do?
Reveal her whole life has been one big lie.
Keith Vaz on News 24 putting the boot in to Woolas and Smith. Ferrets in a sack…
No –
RBH = Voting Conservative in next month’s Euro elections, voting Conservative in next GE, donating to Conservatives via direct debit every month and making regular donations to No2ID campaign group.
Or, more concisely –
RBH = FU,FO NuLab!
OMG just watched the video of the press conference. My memory of Woolas from Manchester student politics in the late 70s is of this really sad no-mates creep diligently sliming himself up the NOLS greasy pole with the obvious sole ambition of becoming a Labour MP one day. The word careerist might have been invented for him.
Quite an achievement, more than a quarter of a century later, when you would have thought that having done what he set out to do in life, he might have normalised a bit, to have become an even bigger pr*ck than he was then; if that were possible.
JL still looking hot BTW.
Never ever had any time for Keith Vaz but have to admit that his interview on BBC 24 just now showed compassion, principle and a sense of embarassment at the antics of his Labour Party. Well done Mr Vaz.
Even the inventor thinks tim is a tit
Meanwhile the pioneer of DNA fingerprinting technology Professor Sir Alec Jeffreys joined in the attack on the Government’s handling of DNA profiles, accusing the Home Office of a ‘minimal response’ to the European Court ruling.
Watching Woolas saying the new policy no the new new policy
I thought Labour had tried every position of political contortionism that there is but clearly not, Woolas invented a new one today and got himself thoroughly tied up in knots!
According to the Channel 4 report (which was quite short)
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1529573111?bclid=21788457001&bctid=22449368001
a government source has accused Joanna Lumley’s tactics today as “playing dirty”.
According to the Channel 4 report (which was quite a lot shorter than the BBC version)
http://tinyurl.com/gurkha-ch4
a government source has branded Joanna Lumley’s tactics today as “playing dirty”.
EDIT: ITN footage
http://itn.co.uk/30b3b478036153f85e19b65e3137946a.html
I have visions of Gordon Brown as Joe Pesci’s character in JFK - hiding out and spewing forth about the PLP being a ‘riddle wrapped inside a f*cking enigma’ - no-one knows who’s on what side, its a game, its a f*cking game!
232.Duly noted Don, any more details?
Lumley has the government by the balls, and Vas is showing due deferens.
223, S&S re: GOP in WA
Yes, do think they’ve got a glimmer of hope, on several levels:
1. At state level, they have a hot prospect for Gov. in 2012, namely current state Attorney General and former King County Councilmember Rob McKenna. A (relative) moderate who’s always had a knack for appealing to Democrats and independents without being regarded as a RINO by GOP wackos.
2. With respect to state legislature, note that the Democrats actually lost a wee bit o ground in 2008, in part because the Dems performed so well in previous cycles. Looking forward, the 2009 legislative budget session was a real mess, thanks to massive state deficit, in turn due to fact that, since we have no state income tax, our state tax structure is based on property and sales taxes & thus highly susceptable to economic downturn. But since the Dems control the Governor’s office and both chambers of legislature, plenty of targets for GOP attack - provided they can improve their candidate recruitment and messaging, both of which have been rotten this millenium.
3. At federal level, not much for GOP to look forward to, save holding the three US House seats (out of 9) they’ve still got. The two in eastern WA look pretty solid; CD 4 (Yakima, Wenatchee, Tri-Cities) is VERY tough turf for Democrats (at least until they can mobilize growing Hispanic vote), while in CD 5 (Spokane) US Rep. Cathy McMorris Rogers is an extremely appealing (if rather rightwing) incumbent. As for western WA, looks like potential for new seat thanks to post-2010 Census reapportionment is diminishing. But incumbent GOP US Rep. Dave Reichert, the former King Co Sheriff who caught the Green River Killer, remains a formindable opponent in a district that was once a GOP banker but has been trending Democratic for many years and went for Gore, Kerry and Obama.
4. In local politics, Republicans are hard pressed in Seattle suburbs, but are competitive in other places. Last year in growing Clark Co (northern suburbs of Portland, Oregon) they actually elected an EXTREMELY flawed candidate as county commissioner. And believe it or not, they’ve actually got a guy who has a shot at being elected on non-partisan basis to the Seattle City Council this year.
5. Speaking of non-partisanship, the GOP managed to engineer making all King County (Seattle & most suburbs) offices nonpartisan, except for the prosecutor, which is already held by Republican, and has been for years. But that’s a special case, namely because the long-term incumbent who died recently was widely respected, even beloved; and his successor is his long-term former deputy persecutor, also very good and respected. Note that King Co is VERY Democratic these days. But the GOP has an attractive candidate for County Executive this year (an open seat, the incumbent was just confirmed by US Senate to be deputy Sec of Housing & Urban Development) she is a former TV news anchor. Since there is a cast of Democratic characters in the race, she’s got a good shot of making the Top Two in primary and advancing to November ballot. BUT fact that she was boardmember for Discovery Insitute - which led charge for “intelligent design” - is NOT a plus for her.
250. Another classic. Use today’s absolutely incredible train crash to remind the public about last week’s absolutely lethal disaster!
I am tempted to ask once again, was Damian McBride the only person in the entire Downing Street operation that has read “media relations for the terminally stupid”.
250.”a government source has branded Joanna Lumley’s tactics today as “playing dirty”.”
They would have to go a long way to match this government on dirty tricks, spin and smear. Their own behaviour leaves them in no position to attack others on this.
249. Yes, I forgot to mention that he was thick as a brick as well.
I had also forgotten how aghast I felt when I saw that such a dismal excuse for a human being occupied a seat in the mother of parliaments.
253 Lumley = Galadriel when she waxes about the ring
‘And in his place you will set up a Queen, and I shall not be dark, but beautiful and terrible as the morning and the night…… all shall love me and despair!’
Does the Home Office hold a DNA profile of Jacqui Smith? If not, why not? The minister notorious for claims of £116,000 for a second home, besides public money for adult movies for her husband and a bath plug, is clearly as predatory of citizens’ cash as any burglar.
But, within the present rules, Jacqui Smith has done nothing wrong, retort her defenders (or would do, if she had any). That is no reason why the Home Office should not retain her DNA: it is currently holding DNA profiles of 850,000 people who have never been convicted of a crime, including children. So, why not take and retain the DNA of the Home Secretary herself?
This Orwellian retention by the state of so intimate an item as personal DNA (in theory, the Government could clone its citizens - might well want to do so, if it could eliminate the gene that prompts people to vote other than Labour) is an appalling example of how far our liberties have been eroded. Yet the state remains obdurate, despite a ruling against it by the European Court of Human Rights. In normal circumstances, the European Court is an instrument for further destruction of British freedom, intervening in favour of criminals, bogus asylum seekers, etc.
On such occasions, the Government is quick to comply, indulging its instinct always to act against the interests of Britain. This time the Court has gone off-message, so the Government has virtually ignored it. Now the campaign group Liberty is threatening legal action to force the Government to comply with the European Court ruling by destroying the DNA of innocent citizens in its possession.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/gerald_warner/blog/2009/05/07/why_does_the_home_office_not_hold_jacqui_smiths_dna_profile
241, S&S re: Miss CA
Suspect that Mayor Newsom has registered fact that majority of CA voters in 2008 general election voted against gay marriage.
But also think he’s sincere in this instance.
250. a government source has branded Joanna Lumley’s tactics today as “playing dirty”.
Ha ha the smearing begins
261
No, it began with the “Eurosceptic solicitor”, so helpfully spread by Robinson.
The DNA fingerprinting pioneer Professor Sir Alec Jeffreys today condemned government plans to keep the genetic details of hundreds of thousands of innocent people for up to 12 years.
Jeffreys – whose discoveries have been used to establish what has become the world’s largest national DNA database – said he was “disappointed” with the proposals, which came after a European court ruled that the current policy breaches people’s right to privacy.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/07/dna-database-plans-condemned
261 Some idiot apparatchnik playing with fire there….
*stands back a safe distance*
254- Thanks for the hot inside tips! Somehow decent news of Washington state politics doesn’t tend to travel well in this direction. One has the impression that things are much less interesting that you portray.
261. Well she had to mix with those from the cesspit. No doubt some of the ‘dirt’ accidentally got wiped on her.
232 Don - you are normally spot on - so are we talking resignations and reshuffles before the Euro-elections?
232 has the post-McBride Brown spin machine pressed the button marked M.A.D?
266
She was certainly looking down on the steps as though she had noticed some dog’s doo-doo there.
256, Christina - even if it were true that Joanna Lumley was guilty of dirty tactics - which I don’t believe for a minute - this is a proposition that the Great British Public is NOT going to buy.
Kind of like trying to convince the Brit Army that a hot cuppa tea is NOT good therapy for stomach wounds!
A better tack for spindocs to try, would be line that JL is a truly wonderful woman, etc, etc, a paragon of moral courage, intellegence (but stay away from loveliness, don’t want to come across as sexist patronizers) who is testifying to the Prime Minister’s good faith and high moral character. And give her ANYTHING SHE WANTS right up to next general election polling day. And until them, cut the knees from any beancounter who begs to differ.
Girls & boys, this AIN’T rocket science!
230 Yes whereas Labours policy was to keep everyones(apart from the scots as don’t want to offend them) forever. Until of course the European court ruling, now Its something like hold on to everyones for 6 years at least (hopefully you can agree with that Tim). Now in those six years I am positive labour will analyse and try to profit from that data in any way possible, and that is the true difference between the parties. Just to throw you a bone, Tim I am not overjoyed that Duncan has decided to keep innocent peoples DNA. It would have been far better to do what David Davis said and just hold convicted criminals DNA.
Nvertheless there are degrees and to keep going with my haircut analogy, the tories had a nice 80s mullet and have now chosen to get a short back and sides whereas Labour were complete extremists i.e chopping peoples heads off, having been reigned in by the court ruling they are now the demon barber of baker street, either way you are dead(youre DNA being sold on etc) so I still prefer the tories.
I think if the govt. think they can brief against Joanna Lumley and not expect there to be a pretty vicious backlash I think they are seriously deluded.
OT for our American friends new PP market
Obama 1st Nominee for Associate Justice?
Sunday 17th May 2009, 22:00
1st Nominee for Associate Justice Hide
Applies to the first nominee chosen by President Obama for Associate Justice of the US Supreme Court.
Others on request.
Dead Heat may apply should there be another position available and the president announces two nominees at the same time.
Sonia Sotomayor 13/8
Leah Ward Sears 10/1
Deval Patrick 33/1
Diane Pamela Wood 9/4
Merrick Garland 12/1
Janet Napolitano 50/1
Elena Kagan 4/1
Ruben Castillo 14/1
Hillary Clinton 100/1
Kim McLane Wardlaw 9/2
Cass Sunstein 16/1
Michelle Obama 500/1
Kathleen Sullivan 8/1
Harold Hongju Koh 20/1
257. To be fair there are quite a few people like that in the Tory ranks.
In answer to the question - yes, Labour can move on from the Gurkha issue, but metaphorically I think they cannot. The narrative on difficult questions is going against them. The awful media management - can any of us imagine such a disaster as today’s Woolas/Lumley press conference taking place in the first Labour government under Blair?
Why is this happening? Because the external environment is tough - the economy is pants, the government’s policies on everything from the NHS to crime look tired and just wrong. The old sense of superiority that attached to the New Labour media management force is gone. It was partially replaced by McBride, but now that that piece of dirty laundry has been aired, Brown is left standing there - The Emperor is naked, his new clothes are fake.
269. If you ever wonder what ‘if looks could kill’ meant then today would answer your question.
205 Just done a Yougov. Lots of voting intention and other political questions, including one asking which song best describes Gordon?
I chose ’sorry seems the hardest word’.
I could resist lookng for a few
Armageddon it,
Brilliant Disguise,
Damned Don’t Cry,
Don’t You Want Me,
Get up and go,
Hell is for Children,
King of wishful thinking,
Promises, Promises,
Somebody Save Me,
Ashes to Ashes,
Crumblin’ Down,
Der Kommissar,
Everybody Wants to Rule the World,
Guilty,
Hit Me With Your Best Shot,
No one is to blame,
Runaway,
Where Where You Hiding When the Storm Broke-,
To name a few
Good Heavens, the pilots’ union thinks dear old Gabble is a shameless liar!
http://www.balpa.org/News-and-campaigns/News/PILOTS-TO-FIGHT-ID-CARDS-AT-MANCHESTER.aspx
“It is demonstrably unfair that the people of Manchester can choose whether or not they want the card while pilots and other airside workers are being forced to have one if they want to keep their jobs,” said BALPA General Secretary Jim McAuslan.
“Parliament was told by the Government that the scheme would be voluntary. But pilots are told that if they have no ID card they will not be allowed airside and if they cannot get airside they cannot fly, and they lose their jobs. This is intolerable. We will resist this with every lawful means at our disposal”
He said that in a recent survey of BALPA members for every pilot in favour of the national ID scheme there were six against.
But, but, Jacquiboots said people were gagging for them!!!
John Major is a top bloke and he is most certainly right that any comparison made between himself and Brown certainly flatters Brown.
Major remained the principled leader of a divided party at the arse-end of its governance.
Brown is a scumbag.
End of.
276 Was “Gordon is a moron” an option?
(Although I guess they’d run with the original title of Jilted John
Wouldn’t want to upset the PM )
151- Morus
A Saturday thread on the predict09 forecasts would be interesting.
Their last update is still bizarre for several countries I know:
- In France they still predict a 6%+ share for debout la Republique a tiny eurosceptic party which registers between 1 and 2% support in the polls. Their figures seem okish for the big 2 (UMP/PS), the rest is wildly at odds with the polls (especially the Modem and NPA scores).
- In Italy, they underestimate Berlusconi’s party share by at least 10% (they put it at 30% while all polls show it at 40% or more). The predicted centre-left share is much too high.
- Their estimate of the FDP share in Germany is also much too low and the gap between SPD and CDU-CSU will probably be bigger than what they predict
267. Could these be the Ministers that were mentioned as being ‘at risk’ in the same piece that revealed back-benchers on suicide watch?
Or could there even more?
265, S&S - tips not all that inside, or even hot, can be culled just by reading the local paper (while we’ve still got one!)
Great truism is that Eastern ignorance of Pacific Northwest political reality is eternal. Last one of youse who had much clue was old Jim Farley (”47 states and the Soviet of Washington”) but his insignt is woefully out of date (and was more funny than true when he said it, seeing as how our Gov of the day was a very conservative Democrat). Heck, even most newscasters cannot avoid habitually mispronouncing “Oregon”! (It’s NEVER “Or-a-GONE”; but rather “OR-a-gun” or “AWR-a-gun”)
And that great statesperson Chris Dodd tried to kill off absentee-on-demand out here, because of occassional scandals with absentee voting in less salubrious precincts up & down the Eastern Seaboard.
Jeesh!
279 MM
My best choice was Brilliant Disguise, as lets face it he has gone away with lot over 12 years
279 Its like it was made for him. Jilted John must either have known him or are the reincarnation of nostradamus.
Someone should tell Robinson we’re a trillion pounds in debt, and then beat him about the head with an iron.
He’s demoted back to Toenails.
“I mean, how can the media maintain credibility when they view the MAJORITY as so far out of the mainstream that they should be, as you say, publicly shamed and driven out of public life?”
Oh, but that’s very common. Think about how often people who, say, wish the UK to pull out of the EU, or want to cut immigration, or reinstitute capital punishment, have been portrayed as lunatics in the mainstream media, here. One doesn’t need to agree with the position that’s been advocated to accept that very large numbers of people hold that position.
Re, Miss California, it appears that the delightful Alan Duncan wants to murder her.
105 I do not expect very much at all from a Cameron-led government, so I will be pleasantly surprised if it’s more than marginally better than the current lot.
But it is hugely important to demonstrate to a horrible government that they can be massacred electorally, and that’s why I want to see Labour heading towards 150 seats next time.
271 - You may not be happy with the Tory DNA policy now.
If they get into power then we’ll see what they do.
If they destroy DNA and only one of those people turns out to be a serial child killer who could have been caught earlier, then the Home Secretary at the time is finished.
Doesn’t make the initial decision wrong, but they will certainly have to make a calculation.
John Major represented the neighbouring constituency to mine, so over the years I have met many people who have had dealings with him. The uniform view of people from all walks of life and all political persuasions is that he was one of the nicest and most genuine people they had ever met. Yes, he may at times been over promoted and have been naive, but to compare him with Brown is absurd
273, Scott P - to like of prospects for the Supremes, would add two women governors, both Democrats with significant legal credentials:
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm
Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire
both at say 33/1
(but while I’m definitely odd, am surely NO odds maker!)
284 actually looking at the lyrics apart from “not that poof I said in dismay” it is all a bit too nice to Gordon, (maybe the Labour party will take it up as his anthem, go on please.)
Overpromoted, naive and nice to Edwina
284 “Not that puff?” I said, dismayed…
Surely that wouldn’t be a remotely acceptable lyric these days?
Is this asking of a song to describe Brown another symptom of the press starting to openly mock the great leader. I don’t remember any such question about another PM and I suspect that they are not looking for a something to imortalise him in song.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/may/07/stonehenge-police-g20-jon-tapper
Sounds like Sir Paul Stephenson is going to keep the TSG locked up in their cages……
OT Was Obama not paying attention to Gordo this week?
WASHINGTON — President Obama on Thursday unveiled nearly $17 billion in additional budget cuts for the coming fiscal year to underscore what he called an “ongoing” effort to find savings at a time when the government’s costs for bailouts, health care and wars are mounting far faster.
“We can no longer afford to spend as if deficits do not matter and waste is not our problem,” said Mr. Obama, who was joined at the White House by Peter R. Orszag, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, and Rob Nabors, his deputy. “We can no longer afford to leave the hard choices for the next budget, the next administration — or the next generation.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/08/us/politics/08budget.html?hp
Any chance of that coming up at PMQs?
Dont know whether this has been posted before but The People newspaper has dumped the Labour Party:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2009/may/07/thepeople-labour
287 I am certainly not happy with Labour’s policy. and if a child killer or peadophile gets hold of some of the data your government have lost over the years and uses it then the whole lot of you should suffer for your controlling addiction.
285 “Someone should tell Robinson we’re a trillion pounds in debt”
This picture just so lends itself to Martin Day playing with the image to read “IOU 2 trillion £’s - Gordon”
http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2008/03/11/gordonbrown1103_narrowweb__300×419,0.jpg
296 Will The Mirror have to do the same - or is it prepared to go to the wall for Gordon?
O/T, but I see the BNP are fielding their first ever candidate in Hertsmere, in the County elections, in Borehamwood North. That should be a good ward for them. From what Jim Page says, they’re fielding loads of County candidates, not, I imagine, because they expect win many County seats, but to maximise their vote for the Euros.
299. The was a piece on Conhome a while back. The Mirror is the only paper that they reckon will definitely back Labour.
288, back in Feb 2003 was sitting in H of C vistor’s gallery during the first major debate just before the clearly imminent invasion of Iraq. When none other than John Major was escorted (in company of an aide) to a seat in the front row of the same gallery. He gave the rest of us a nice, shy smile, then sat down and like us listened intently.
As Brits say, no side. Kind of reminded me (the smile and understated ego) of my old hero Paul Simon (the senator, not the songwriter). Only handsomer, even better looking in person than on the tube. Felt a certain kinship with him that day. NOT in looks department! But rather, because he was 1) against the war; and 2) an interested member of the human race.
Having reflected on this a little, the government are completely culpable for not stopping the Gurkha rejection letters go out today. Woolas, Smith and Brown between them managed to screw up big time.
However, I think Woolas has been very unlucky. He went to give an interview to the BBC. How was he to know that Lumley would wait outside the studio for him, force him at camera-point into a televised meeting, and a ballbreaking press conference? He deserves it, sure, but it was kind of an accident. I’m not sure even a Blair-era spin guru could have done anything else.
Euro Candidates for Scotland announced.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/94909-details-of-scottish-european-parliament-candidates-announced/
299 - Daily Record also.
I’m no economist, but this doesn’t look good for those who think that spending without end will solve all of our problems:
“The U.S. government’s plans to help finance its burgeoning budget deficit with more longer-term debt ran into trouble on Thursday with a dismal reception for its sale of 30-year long bonds.
The $14 billion auction met below-average demand from investors, who bid aggressively to force the government to pay a higher yield.
It was the first 30-year auction since the government said last week that it would move to monthly sales of long bonds, which some analysts say are more difficult to sell than other maturities.
“It all depends on whether long-term investors show up, and they didn’t show up,” said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed-income rates trading at Guggenheim Capital Markets LLC in New York.
“This illustrates that government debt issuance has its limitations.”"
http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN0738200920090507
Wonderful piece on News 24 just now at 9.10pm
some guy called Walker just articulatated howw savvy Joanna Lumley was, as a daughter of a Ghurka Officer, and that any campaigner would be mad to think that all you needed was a celebrity to put the case. If that wasnt a defenestration of Toenails Robinson who articulated that on the 6pm news,, I dont now what would have been. This new lady on News 24 was very good too. Laura Kuenesberg ?? spelling
As a sign of how badly the Government has handled the Gurkha issue, Keith Vaz has has been a man of principle on TV today.
307 - Its spelt Shailesh Vara
On a cricket note MTF.
Don’t England look a better team for not having to carry a crocked and overrated Flintoff.
Stay tuned tonight. The Telegraph has apparently bought the complete disk of MPs’ expenses, which might explain Mr Brogan’s light blogging today. They are splashing on it tomorrow, but I imagine Messers Robinson and Bradby may cover it at 10pm. All other lobby hacks are meanwhile looking green and thinking up spoilers…
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/05/telegraph-to-publish-mps-expenses-disc.html
307 - Who was it? Didn’t see it unfortunately.
309 - Oh, oh, there is going to be trouble ahead.
309. That would explain Don’s earlier comment.
I usually don’t read the Indy Sketch but this one from this morning amused me particularly this line about Labour:
His back bench roared approval anyway. It’s a defective juke box. You don’t even have to put money in – just kick it and it plays the tune you want.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/simon-carr/the-sketch-people-as-tired-as-gordon-brown-are-usually-in-hospital-1680393.html
304 Wibbler - Woolas did say on radio he had been trying to contact Ms Lumley all day (No 10 somehow did manage to text her and call her, why didn’t they tell Woolas?) so it was his good luck that she had turned up for her press conference early and he was able to meet her, wasn’t it?
309. Oh yes please!
Hang on a minute, hasn’t the exTorygraph swerved left?
308 Tim Dont give a sh*t what you type about anything, you will be ,as I have done recently,ignored. You have a long memory for smear, and I know what you are angling at. I did not know this MP quoted at 307 and you managed to get your facts wrong anyway, but its not a hanging offence, whereas your revolting smears are.
I loathe everything you stand for.
309. Someone mention a visit to the Queen today?
Is that a funeral march I hear?
232- When Don talks this site should listen, he has given us hot tips several timesbefore.
315. But it took a kicking for doing so. Perhaps this is its penitence……
Oh my giddy aunt. I’ve just seen a sign of the apocalypse.
Jeff Randall has just said “Gordon Brown got it right.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/5292643/This-is-no-time-for-Tory-jokes—were-galloping-into-a-mega-crisis.html
318 correct.
317. Mozart’s Requiem I think
Hopefully the Telegraph expenses CD will have the unredacted details, so we can see where the taxis were to and from, which shops they used, etc.
If they are smart, the Telegraph could make this last all the way till the elections.
One scandal a day should be fine.
Then release the lot and let bloggers find the rest of the dirt.
Has anyone seen McPoison?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5292112/Commons-sketch-watch-what-you-say-about-Damian-McBride.html
309 - So we should expect some MP’s committing suicide by the weekend?
322 - Mozart’s Requiem is too good for Brown.
323 “If they are smart, the Telegraph could make this last all the way till the elections.”
If so - early election. No Govt. could continue wondering when the next meember of the Cabinet is going to be shredded….
But maybe they will content themselves with trashing Tories and LibDems for a few months - perhaps they are big buyers of Labour at the current spreads…!
322. Indeed very appropriate.
325. They’ll be lucky if they get the chance. “Right - if we can have the Peoples Tribunal over here, please - and if the firing squad could wait outside….”
324 McPoison has just blended seamlessly back into the shadows…
327. Well it looks like the cabinet won’t get to go home this weekend…..
330 The Third Way’s Third Man as it were - Damien ‘Harry’ McLime
308 For heavens sake, not only are you wrong in your political outlook on life, your endless attacks on Flintoff just make you look daft. I don’t even think you can deny that he is the outstanding all rounder of his generation. Now he may not be what he was but I can’t think of many who can bat as well as he can on his day let alone bowl like he can at his best. For Englands sake this summer we need a fully fit Andrew Flintoff for one last amazing ashes series, or frankly we have little chance.
Expenses release is great for leadership speculation.
Now the PLP won’t have any doubts after the local elections disaster (if that is what happens) about whether their candidate of choice has been naughty on expenses.
This makes June much more likely than July for a coup.
324 - Newish blogger Tory Rascal is on the lookout..
http://www.toryrascal.com/2009/05/have-you-seen-this-rottweiler.html
@327 (Marquee Mark)
I meant the elections in June, not the general election.
Not even our MPs could have claimed enough dodgy stuff on expenses to fill a year of newspapers…
I’d imagine that the Telegraph will keep this dripping for a week.
One Tory and thow or thre Cabinet Ministers to start with.
316 - Good.
Your constant popping up whenever I post anything, just to repeatedly say nokia bunker or Draper was very tedious.
Congrats on getting David Mellor elected though.Lab Gain.
324 - Newish blogger Tory Rascal is on the lookout..
http://bit.ly/VypDr
JK Rowling is still writing fiction I see.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3596291/the-poverty-brownie.thtml
For once I agree with SeanT - I believe the BBC does have a policy of alternating headlines with different angles on a controversial issue. Certainly that’s what they do on radio news - they’ll lead with a pro-Tory angle at 9 and a pro-Labour one at 10, etc. People who only catch one bulletin foam with rage and complain, but it does even out.
On a lighter note. Tories here seem pretty confident, all things considered. What odds are the Broxtowe cats offered against their LOSING any seats in my constituency in the June 4 county election? How about £10 at 5-1? That is, if the Tories lose no seats in Broxtowe next month, your favourite charity gets £10. If they do lose one or more, Cats Protection Nottingham gets £50. Takers?
33 - No.
Having to provide cover for Flintoff weakens England team, and he will never be fully fit again.
Its taking Michael Owen to the World Cupp all over again.
They will be better prepared for the Ashes if Flintoff is regarded as an added bonus rather than someone to build a team around.
330 What odds on the probability that McPoison is doing his master’s bidding somewhere in North Queensferry?
As many of we Scots have been saying for a long time, Brown will take the Labour party down before he will let it take him down.
I would not be surprised if McPoison and Draper are busy working on “Project Meltdown” or something equally bizarre.
338. She should be writing the Labour manifesto as well. At least it would be an entertaining fantasy for children rather than the Grimm’s Fairy Tale that Brown will make of it……
Someone in the Guardian having a go at Labour
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2009/may/07/inequality-poverty-labour
339. Trying to change the subject before the bombshell drops Nick?
Question Time or Newsnight?
Cameron to challenge Government over TV Licence rise:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/5291474/David-Cameron-plans-to-force-a-Commons-vote-to-halt-3-rise-in-BBC-licence-fee.html
By the way, the No2EU coailition is worth a glance: they’ve been endorsed by Bob Crow’s RMT, and Sheridan in Scotland is signed up, but not so far as I can see Respect in either of its factions. They’re committed not to take seats if elected, but have a generally far-left stance. Presumably the name will splinter a few UKIP votes, but it’s hard to see them making a huge impact - even the RMT magazine just gives them a couple of plugs.
340 The reason we won the ashes in 2005 was our bowling in my opinion. Jones, Flintoff, Harmison, hoggard and Giles probably in that order. The first three truly world class, with hoggie given the right conditions world class and giles with lots of guile. Now I will be honest I know little about our curent crop of bowlers but one of those world class ashes bowlers of 2005 need to come good for this years ashes I think to lead the attack and give us any chance at all, and Flintoff is the most realistic. If not I fear England are as doomed as Labour at the next election.
344: I’m relaxed about the Telegraph publishing my expenses, redacted or not, jsfl - I discovered one £61 duplicate software licence payment which I’ve refunded, but apart from that it’s all harmless stuff. I’d think if they’ve got the whole CD then they’ll milk it for a few days rather than splurge it all in one go.
10 pm news coming up. What will the BBC stance be???. Will it be pro or anti Govt or down the line, What will Toenails Robinson say after his being rubbished on News 24?
According to Paul Staines (although it is a bit of a cryptic comment) the Telegraph may not have all MPs’ expenses. They have a ’sample of names’.
http://www.order-order.com/2009/05/telegraph-has-unredacted-expenses-disk/
EDIT: though those they do have are unredacted.
349. Nick P - I would never suggest that such a paragon of virtue as yourself would even consider milking their expenses let alone fiddling them. Alas I think that may not be the case for some of your senior colleagues.
I was alluding to them and not to your good self. Wholehearted apologies for any confusion in the intent of my last post…….
I do feel sorry for the person who has to tell Gordon, “Excuse me Prime Minister, but the Telegraph has all the expenses details, and they are publishing tonight.”
Daily Mail headline
ABSOLUTELY FARCICAL
353 - I gather a junior aide has just been wheeled out of Downing Street with an HP Laserjet lodged in his entrails and a Nokia N95 embedded in his forehead.
338- People who make such claims usually use them as a smokescreen for their real reasons. After all, do you really think that Rowling would not support Labour if they hadn’t, in her view, raised 600,000 children out of poverty? That line serves as a nice marketing schtick to burnish her image among the consumers of her product, but I would imagine that the real reason for her devotion is a more old-fashioned commitment to socialism and big government, as well as “modern” views on a range of social issues.
332 Harry Slime?
Sky news - “cabinet expenses, plumbing, mattress and council tax included”. I think they have the story under curfew and will go on it soon.
351. So what they are able to publish depends largely on the agenda of the disk-master.
Hmm. In that case…. a few tasters with promises of bigger names if they front up the cash?
Brown trouser time in Westminster.
Top item on News at Ten Expenses
Sky are on it now, DT will publish all expense claims of cabinet and pm.
Jack Straw and Gordon Brown named
Jack Straw features
Straw 1st
Brown claimed same plumbing bill TWICE, but paid back second amount TODAY
349, Nick P - am willing to make fearless prediction, that you are NOT media/tory top target on the expenses front.
UNLESS of course that software was for making dirty movies (or bombs) in your basement!
News at Ten on ITV dreadful for Government. Showing Joanna Lumley doorstepping Woolas while he was doing an interview in the BBC Westminster studio. It was not arranged. She waited until he came off air.
“Gordon Brown paid his brother about £6,000 for cleaning services for his Westminster flat, it has been reported.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8039108.stm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5293147/MPs-expenses-Telegraph-investigation-exposes-allowances.html
369. Oh dear, oh dear. It might get lost in the bigger mess of other MPs, but again, oh dear.
For the tories, the only real danger is Cameron or Osbourne, the rest are expendable. If both of them are squeaky clean then they can ride the storm of any piggy tory mps.
288. If they destroy DNA and only one of those people turns out to be a serial child killer who could have been caught earlier, then the Home Secretary at the time is finished.
Balls.
The Yorkshire Ripper was arrested and released 3 times before he was caught by accident. I don’t recall any Home Secretary resigning over that.
355 FoW -
a junior aide has just been wheeled out of Downing Street with an HP Laserjet lodged in his entrails and a Nokia N95 embedded in his forehead.
The story about Broon requiring a “news sandwich” - good news, REALLY BAD NEWS, good news - reminded me of that joke about the bloke whose doctor tells him he’s got bad news and good news.
“The bad news is, you’ve got 3 months to live,” says the doctor. Appalled, the bloke says, “Well, what’s the good news?”
“The good news? You see that nurse over there with the fabulous knockers? I shaggged her last night.”
How long can it be before something like that features in the sandwich?