How will these look when the expenses are revealed?
April 27th, 2009
CONSERVATIVES 45% (+2)
LABOUR 33% (-4)
LIB DEMS 16% (+3)
YouGov: London moves further to the Tories
A new YouGov poll on voting intentions in London is out in tonight’s Evening Standard. The comparisons above are with the last such poll which was published in mid-January. Then it appeared that the swing to Cameron’s party was less than in the rest of the country.
That trend is still there though things have got much worse for Labour nationally. Today’s poll points to a 9.5% swing to the Tories on the May 2005 general election which compared with the the 10.5% swing suggested in the last YouGov national poll published yesterday.
The big shadow hanging over London MPs is the publication of all their detailed expenses. How will those dumb and greedy enough to have claimed for second homes be perceived when that comes out in July? This is not going to be good for incumbents and Labour has more of them
Even so according to the seat projections based on this latest poll Labour is set to lose 14 seats. There’s also the possibility that the Lib Dems seats of Carshalton, Sutton and Richmond might be vulnerable - but none of their London MPs claim the second home allowance.
What the poll does not help us with are some of the key betting constituencies such as Brent Central where sitting MPs Sarah Teather (LD) and Dawn Butler (Lab) are in a rough fight following boundary changes. My money is on Sarah - currently 6/4 - who is a non-claimant.
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first
1 Go for it, gal!
Was Dawn Butler the one with the Obama note ??
Worth posting again I think:
Anyone else notice that the beebs website has changed its coverage of the torys spring forum?
It was ‘Miser Dave’ now its ‘thrifty Dave’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8019114.stm
The UK is about to turn blue and it will be a big improvement.
Extract from a good article in 24dash.com about the June elections
The milestones to watch in June are:
Labour trails 20% - Tories sweep the overwhelming majority of the councils including Labour’s traditional Derbyshire stronghold. The blue tide would be held back only in Bristol where a third of the seats are at stake, possibly Bedford and Cornwall and mayoral contests at Hartlepool and Doncaster which may both see the return of independent runners.
Labour trails 12% - Despite rekindled hopes of eventual triumph, the party would still lose all its four counties, although Derbyshire would be no overall control rather than Tory.
Labour trails 5% - Huge relief for the party even though it would still be losing Lancashire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire and the vital North Tyneside mayoral contest to the Tories.
Labour leads by 3% - The party keeps its four councils and the North Tyneside mayoralty. Prime Minister Gordon Brown would surely be heading for Buckingham Palace to seek a General Election early in July.
The man who may have the last laugh is Stuart Drummond, Hartlepool’s mayor.
There was widespread mirth when Mr Drummond - formerly H’Angus the monkey, mascot of the town’s football club - was first returned in 2002.
But he could now be set to be the first elected mayor in Britain to win a third term - a prize which eluded Ken Livingstone in London last year.
Mike, I wonder if Labour will be punished more for these ridiculous expenses claims than either the Conservatives or the Libdems? Quite simple, they have presided over Westminster for 3 terms with stonking great majorities. Its been happening under their watch so to speak, and while none of the parties comes out of this with any great credit, they must surely take the biggest electoral hit for it?
I am still annoyed that neither the Tories or the Libdems did enough last year to start clearing up this inhouse mess when they had the chance, and before the media stink made it absolutely essential for all the parties to become evangelical about having the right solutions.
I think that the best odds for the LibDems winning Brent Central are from vcbet (15/8, decimal 2.88)
Slackbladder
RE last thread miser Dave changed to Thrifty Dave on the BBC website, I complained about that and I got the impression I wasnt the only one to have done so.
2.MM, I always swore I wouldn’t get into this competitive malarky. But a blank thread is too much of a temptation.
What would these figures do for Stephen Pound’s (Ealing North) chances? Please say that we would have the satisfaction of seeing him lose his seat.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8019745.stm
A debate to be had on the Gurkhas on Wednesday, with a demonstration outside.
That and PMQs could be ugly, hopefully Clegg goes on Gurkhas (and isn’t beaten to the punch by Cameron/backbencher).
Wonder who they’ll put up for the debate, hope it’s Woollas and he gets ripped apart, he’s my most hated Labour minister, foul cockroach that he is.
How would the above shares be reflected in seats changing hands? How about some of the wild cards? Not only Brent C, but both Tower Hamlets seats, and Dagenham to name just a few?
Reposting:
Not sure if this has been mentioned before but apologies if it has.
Jacqui Smith managed to defuse the story this morning of the giant digital snooping database when she scrapped plans to have one massive government system: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8020039.stm
However, they are still planning to spend £2 billion on forcing mobile phone companies and ISPs to hand over any and all information that they have. So the government will still be able to snoop on us whenever they like. The database has not gone away, the government will still be able to get the data!
This is a serious erosion of civil liberties. I’ve blogged about this more: http://righttocommonsense.blogspot.com
Will Brown be back for the PMQs or will he find it essential to travel on to Pakistan, Iraq and Poland then Australia? Indeed anywhere but Westminster?
Funny old place, Britain. Labour can inflict the worst economic mess since we painted ourselves with woad and celebrated the “topping off” of Stonehenge. The voters are unruffled. But find out a politician has bought an 88p bathplug and a couple of dodgy videos, and the voters reach for their pitchforks and flaming torches…
Gordo’s Grand Expenses Plan V2.0 will be revealed this afternoon according to Sky News.
just seen this on the comments on Guido
The great leader tries to shake hands with a soldier.. whose right hand is controlling two dogs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01392/gordon_1392020f.jpg
12. Hopefully be enough to cost Woolas his seat.
@3 Yes Dawn Butler was the one who pushed a piece of House of Commons notepaper under Obama’s nose and asked him to sign it. She then spelt his name wrong, and then advertised the fact that she was abusing HoC paper for party political promotion. A classic NuLab careerist.
3 Miss Butler was claiming for a home in her constituency and one in East London, both around same distance from Westminster. When challenged by the press she complained that they were not showing her any respect and were door stepping her. She has since posted that she is no longer claiming for a second home.
7 The 21 Conservative MPs who voted to keep ACA last year are listed here, along with the 33 Ministers and majority of Labour backbenchers.
Sorry to see some of the names who voted against the advice of the leadership.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7488639.stm
4, I did see ‘Miser Dave’ before. Blatant bias.
7, not just that but they have most MPs. Assuming the sleaze is equally spread, they suffer more than the Opposition just by virtue of having more MPs.
12, I imagine Cameron would lead on the Gurkhas and have the inept Chancellor’s wrong Q1 figures as follow-up. Clegg’s made some good running on worthy questions regarding the Gurkhas in the past though.
So some slight evidence, in line with previous polls, that Labour is doing a bit better in the capital than nationally.
15, I wouldn’t say Britain is special in that regard.
17. He really does look a tool.
MTF not half as bad as Brown withdrawing his hand from the copper outside No 10 shown on HIGNFY last week.
As they say on that show ‘complete the headline’
Supercilious status conscious…………. refused to shake hands with police detail protecting his taxpayer funded accommodation
22: Or, that Labour is doing worse in the country as a whole than its doing in London. Doesnt sound as good, does it?
16.You are winding us up, surely? After the pitiful youtube effort, and the less than successful meeting with Cameron and Clegg, he really needs to put this whole thing into the hands of someone more capable.
Or will it be the typical Brownite tactic of a headline now, and the actual details kicked into the long grass of a review which will never see the light of day this side of a GE?
20. No Lib Dems, and no London MPs claiming 2nd homes. I’m hopeful that we’ll get a boost out of it but my head says the electorate will just think “they’re all at it”.
If The PM is away, does anyone deputise for him on the weekly meeting with Her Majesty, or will she be spared this ordeal?
re 7. It’s hard to say - there may be some real nasties to come which could impact on all the parties. Labour’s problems is that it has many more MPs and therefore the potential for trouble is much greater.
re 8. Thanks Richard - I’ve just opened an account and made a bet.
It would be fun to see Hague ask Harperson questions about the Gurkhas. Would she be able to do it without a curl of the lip. They are, after all, mere men and the regiment does not allow women. Tut.
The hope for Labour in London is that Boris drops a few major clangers over the next 12 months, and the Tory candidates at the GE suffer from guilt by association.
Of course in west London, the Heathrow 3rd runway is the biggest gift the Tories could possibly have asked for to win marginals such as Ealing Central and Acton, and yes, maybe unseat Pound in Ealing North.
It’s worth noting that the Lib Dems’ London rating is still pretty atrocious. To be down 6 from the last election is quite something. Rod Crosby at 22 puts it better than our host - Labour appears to be doing a bit better in the capital than nationally. The Tories appear to be improving in London in line with the rest of the country, it is the Lib Dems who are underperforming.
I agree that Sarah Teather looks like good value in Brent Central, but the same cannot be said of the Lib Dems in Islington South & Finsbury. On this evidence, possible bets on the Lib Dems in Hampstead & Kilburn and Holborn & St Pancras also don’t look worthwhile.
Just tried to place £50 on Sarah Teather with VCbet. Got the error message:
“Sorry, we are unable to accept your bet at the requested stake of £50.00
However, we would be happy to take your bet at a reduced stake of £179,769,313,486,231,570,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000″
28 the worrying bit is the LD frontbencher who asked Clegg to confirm no-one would be fired as result of expenses release (Clegg refused to) - Mail reported that the LD leadership were concerned that that meant they will suffer damage.
Doubt any party will escape blame though maybe SNP, Plaid, UUP will not have any problem claims.
20.Ted, thanks for that link.
30.”there may be some real nasties to come which could impact on all the parties. Labour’s problems is that it has many more MPs and therefore the potential for trouble is much greater.”
Mike, I think that you are right about that, and I am waiting to see how all the Scottish MP’s come out of this.
27. ChristinaD he will probably announce it as an exclusive on Cbeebies or Living TV.
On topic on these figures Electoral Calculus suggest that the LD’s could lose 5 seats:
Kingston
Carshalton
Sutton
Richmond
Hampstead (notional LD seat)
All to the Conservatives.
It also suggests Brent Central would remain in Labour hands.
re 33. But YouGov’s methodology is highly suspect over the Lib Dems. In my view it overweights Labour identifiers and under weights LDs.
7. inevitably, as they have the most MPs, especially MPs in swingable seats
32. hard to see how this guilt by association will work
32.”The hope for Labour in London is that Boris drops a few major clangers over the next 12 months, and the Tory candidates at the GE suffer from guilt by association.”
Sandy, Livingston and Boris won because they were regarded as mavericks. They have to be seen to be independent of their parties, putting London first, a GE is a completely different ball game in this regard.
vc.bet have pulled the Brent Central market. Hills go 7/4 LDs. I’m on!
38.Mike, how accurate were ICM and YouGov with the Libdem final figure in the London Mayoral contest? IIRC, they both did polls?
Do we have any comparable statistics on how London voted in the 05 GE? Any such data would be far more useful than using the national breakdown of votes in 05.
I imagine Labour performed better in London than in other parts of the country and that their vote share in the capital would have been above their national average of 36%. Similarly, I would expect that the LD’s would have been slightly down on the 22% they recorded nationally across London…
40. i agree with you there.
i would say that there are plenty of reasons for any party in London to be optimistic, because polls covering the capital have proved to be extremely unreliable. there are lots of subtle local issues (as well as obvious ones like heathrow), lots of population churn, and generally low turnout that might be enthused by any future event.
David Hughes at the Three Line Whip - James Purnell and those embarrassing pictures
Grim reading for Mr Purnell, excuse the pun.
BBC reported that government scrambling around behind the scene trying to get a deal with all parties, and looking like the Sign In Bugger Off allowance idea will bite the dust. While Gordo is away…….
Latest Coffee House post is interesting….
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3567946/brooks-cameron-is-the-right-alternative-to-obamaism.thtml
42. I seem to remember yougov being more accurate, although we (LDs) always tend to underperform in the London Mayoral/Assembly elections compared to GEs.
48. yes the mayoral election was a classic 2 horse race squeezing the third party. hard to see why that would be repeated at a GE.
41. Notional 18% majority and us underperforming in London polls. That’s a very ‘courageous’ bet imho.
48.I agree with that, but I also think that you have to be aware that you might under perform at this GE too. And I think that there are plenty of warnings signs that might be the case.
45 - surely I’m not the only person wondering why these suddenly came to light now? It couldn’t be because his name is one of two or three being taken even moderately seriously as a replacement for Brown, could it? Anything to embarras them, and all that…
re 42, But this is a general election.
38. If so Mike that implies the Labour-Tory swing might be even bigger than this poll suggests, doesn’t it?
Richmond looks very risky for the LIB dems - the more interesting on is Kingston because this looks like a lib dem hold for Ed Davey but could offer some value as a Tory gain - are there any prices on this seat
Shadsy has cut Tories to win P&L from 2/1 to 6/4. I missed the 2/1 but backed them a while ago at 11/4. vc.bet go 7/4 and Hills 13/8. I’m on! Again!
Just read the Evening Standard Article and found the answer to my question there!
The London breakdown in 05 was apparently Lab 39, Con 32, LD 22
FWIW- When we reach polling day 2010- I expect the votes (in Ldn) to be closer to Con 42 Lab 30 LD 21
The score for Others in the Yougov poll also looks too low to me…
52.I thought that too, but it seems that this article indicates a Landlord who is not best pleased.
45 The only vaguely interesting thing about Purnell’s dirty sink is that the Telegraph are still happy to be doing Gordon’s dirty work in rubbishing potential challengers.
43. in 2005
Lab 38.9%
Con 31.9%
LD 21.9%
Oth 7.3%
58. His landlord wouldn’t be a Brownite MP claiming the place as a second home while renting it out, would he?
31. And Ghurkhas are the ‘wrong sort’ of minorities as far as people like her are concerned, they dont live off government largesse and they have devoted their lives to king and country, and probably dont vote labour in large numbers.
FPT. BETTING on P&L.
“253. BETTING POST.
Peter. You have set me thinking. Let us assume Martin Coxall is right that Respect have no chance in P&L. Labour are Evens and Tories are 2/1. Let us also also assume he is right that Labour should only be narrow favourites. Real odds should be 4/5 and 5/4?
Your strategy is to back both. £75 at Evens Labour and £50 at 2/1 Tories. Guaranteed return of £150 whichever wins. £25 profit for no risk. Odds of 1/6. Only downside is tying up £125.
Is there a better strategy? If Martin is correct, then nearly all the value is locked in the Tory 2/1 odds. What if we invested our £125 like this. £62.50 on Labour at Evens and £62.50 on Tories at 2/1. Guarantees no loss if Labour win but a nice profit if the Tories win.
We are forgoing a guaranteed £25 profit by investing our money in this alternative way. So we are “risking” that £25 guaranteed profit. However if the Tories win we get back £187.50 and make a profit on £25 “risked” of £62.50. So effectively we are risking £25 at odds of 5/2, about a 5/4 shot.
If we could put £25 on a 5/4 shot at odds of 5/2 on Betfair and then lay back at 5/4, what would the profit be? £87.50-£56.25 = £31.25.
Strategy A gives a guaranteed profit of £25 on a stake of £125, 1/6 winner or 16.66% return on stakes. Strategy B gives a “notional guaranteed profit” of £ 31.25 on a stake of £125, 1/4 winner or 25% return on stakes invested. So notionally Strategy B is better which supports the intuitive deduction.”
While I was faffing about doing this post I missed the 2/1!
STJOHN’S FIRST RULE OF BETTING:
WHERE YOU SEE VALUE ACT QUICKLY.
GM to announce layoffs for 21,000 workers:
http://www.wxyz.com/news/story/ALERT-GM-Cutting-21-000-Jobs-Pontiac/kYLlxaZ6t0KZbtFj5yAwEw.cspx
The foreign manufacturers were offering highly competitive incentives last autumn and winter when U.S. manufacturers were doing the same in a disastrous marketplace, but interestingly, they’ve stopped doing so. This is likely because they now know they’ll get the customers without even trying to underbid the U.S. auto makers since people are afraid to buy from dying companies. Another stark sign of the decline of the U.S.
Afternoon all and I wonder how much harm Labour will suffer and the SNP gain with the news today that under an FOI request it has been learned there have been 2 nuclear particle leaks into the Holy Loch near Faslane courtesy of cock ups within the Royal Navy. The Government Agency SEPA has no authority over the MOD.
Assuming the Tories have no chance then I would wish Sarah Tether to hammer Barack Obama’s second best friend in Labour or is it third best?
57 I expect “Others” would be more than 6%. The Greens should manage about 3% if the fight most London seats, UKIP maybe 2%, and the BNP and Respect percentages will depend on how many seats they fight.
Erith & Thamesmead is probably the best bet for a shock Conservative win. Labour, OTOH, should hold on better in seats with very large ethnic populations (which also points to them retaining Brent Central).
66, it’s sad that seats can partially be predicted based on ethnicity.
67 - But unsurprising.
64 So its bye bye Pontiac. I assume to core brand “Chrysler” is meant to be Chevrolet, unless there’s been a realignment in US auto industry we haven’t already been told about.
Wonder who will buy GM Europe/GM Australia etc?
Skybet are going 2/1 Tories to win P&L.
Why on earth would a London MP need a second home? there’s a bloody tube station right outside the Houses of Parliament with trains going to all parts of East, North and West London.
For South London, Waterloo station is just across the river and Charing Cross and Victoria stations are both only 10 minutes walk away.
68, I used to peruse a Muslim forum (it was open to everyone, I wasn’t pretending to be a Muslim) and was saddened and surprised to see just how ignorant and blinkered some of them were. At my school about half were Muslims and almost all were as reasonable as anyone else.
Interesting to note that the more integrated an ethnicity are (Hindus for example) the more likely they are to vote Tory. Some of the Muslims on the forum I mentioned swallowed the tosh about Boris being racist without a moment’s thought to trouble the notion.
67. In South Africa you almost predict the whole GE result on that basis. Give Harriet ten years and it will be the same here, too
67. And labour has spent the last twelve years making sure thats such a demographic ‘quirk’ exists all over the land.
SKY announcing suspected swine flew case in Greater Manchester
59&61.When this story first surfaced, I agreed with John Rentoul’s take on it. Not just the flat that’s dirty
Now we know how the Brownites work, just think back to the other possible contenders in the Leadership contest in 2007. This is a classic short term tactic which strengthens Brown’s position at the expense of his opponents/possible successors, but it also screws the Labour party for a generation too. Brown puts his position first, and if the Labour party don’t start standing up to him and putting a stop to this damaging behaviour, they will live to regret it politically for a very long time. The McBride scandal was a final wake up call.
I strongly believe that Brown will be gone before the GE. But the danger for the Labour party, could be the very real possibility that all the other contenders, other than Brown’s choice could already been damaged or undermined by those from within their own party. And that could leave them with a scenario not that far from what happened when Brown took over in 2007, it would also put some people off even putting their hat in the ring. Not going to be much of a change or break from Brown either. Talk about sleepwalking into this.
FPT 167
My point was a practical one that they’re not likely to go back to skinheads and marching about now that Griffin’s brought them more success by acting sensible.
75 - Flying pigs?
If Swine Flu starts to look serious then might the governmant gain in the polls, as they did over Foot and Mouth?
69
Last week (iIrc) Fiat were being touted as a possible buyer.
75 Can we close the UK’s borders whilst Gordon is away?
71 - correction. The Tube station is inside Parliament. There’s a secure door that goes right into Portcullis House from the tunnels below, so they don’t even need to get into the open air to get to work
58. Christina D in the last Yougov poll (1/5/2008) for the London Mayorals the LD figure for both Paddick as Mayor and I believe the London Assembly was higher than the actual result.
However as Mike says it is not comparing like for like.
All there is on that poll is that the Westminster Intention figures were:
Con 43
Lab 35
LD 14
So Cons/LDs are +2 and Lab/Others -2 since last year.
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/MayoralElections01Mayresults.pdf
79 Gordo will be blamed
West Indian voters (who form a very large proportion of Brent Central’s electorate) are solid for Labour, although their turnout tends to be low. Muslims (also well-represented) are pretty solid for Labour, despite wavering over the Iraq war. Hindus are more mixed in their political preferences.
I don’t doubt Sara Teather will lead in the wards coming in from Brent East, but she’ll be way behind in Harlesden, Stonebridge, and Kensal Green.
73 It was not far from being the case that you could predict how each ward in London would vote last year by looking at its ethnic make up.
58. hard to believe the landlord has brought this up now. more likely a smear campaign.
FWIW i side with the tenant on this one - the statement from the landlord sounds too much like what previous landlords have tried to claim against me while trying to nick my deposits on places (after i have left them in better state than i found them).
many of the less scrupulous landlords view the deposit as an extra bit of rent and a chance to take the P with professional cleaners. if you don’t have signed inventories and photos it used to be all too easy to get shafted like this.
i don’t know what the new deposit holding scheme has done for this situation (if anything), have heard one positive report.
83.Thanks jsfl. I understand Mike’s point about not comparing like with like.
77 And mine was that the same people are still in the party, no doubt with the same attitudes they had before.
Once an extremist party gets a modicum of power it is relatively easy to use covert threats and violence to get their own way… and this is probably far harder to police than overt violence.
And they have the people who are probably prepared to do it.
Are there any London seats with a substantial ethnic vote which the Tories might capture on a high swing which hasn’t yet adopted a Tory candidate and might provide a suitable “berth” for the now ex LibDem PPC for Chelsea?
Meanwhile Toenails is accompanying Flash Gordon on his”Anything to avoid PMQs” world trip. Toenails clearly not back on message yet as his report in the lunchtime news had a “we will believe it when we see it” theme. No doubt Gord will tell the stewardesses not to give toenails a choice of menu for dinner as a punishment
63. “no risk” and “assuming Martin Coxall is correct” in the same sentence?!
67. complete nonsense. seats can be predicted based on all sorts of demographic factors, including ethnicity. that isn’t sad, it is politics.
89 Brent North
89. He’s missing PMQs again? What’s the excuse this time?
63, stjohn - you are right that the best strategy is to load more of your would-be profit onto the wrong-er price. If there are genuinely only two possible then obviously you should simply put as much as possible onto the wrong-er one and then at least cover your stake on the other; how you split your profit should depend both on the relative chances and also the size of your bankroll relative to the stakes you have managed to place.
For value that will settle more quickly may I recommend Dumbarton to win the Scottish 3rd Division at the last remaining 8/15 that is available?
93: We don’t know for sure. It’s just a possibility seeing as he’s off jet-setting.
85. ‘It was not far from being the case that you could predict how each ward in London would vote last year by looking at its ethnic make up.’
Labour’s plan is working then. Thank heavens they are on the verge of being turfed out of office for a generation.
79. stjohn alternatively they might be seen as the cause (pigs at trough). Apologies flippant comment……..
Seriously, I don’t think so because successfully dealing with it means that it doesn’t turn into an epidemic, it drops out of the news quickly and has little potency.
If it does become widespread and god forbid there are significant numbers of fatalities, then fairly or not, it begs the question ‘How did it become so widespread - we spend a fortune on the NHS - rather than waste money on ridiculous public health campaigns pillorying drinkers why haven’t the government got better measures? - blah blah blah’.
In the longer term if it is widespread it just hits the economy pushing up demands on public sector resources and hindering business output which provides the potential double whammy or increasing public secotr costs (and debt) and reducing the tax take.
For any Government it is likely a no win/ no win situation especially when the Government are so unpopular.
Whats this talk of Gordo missing PMQ’s again? Surely he can get back from his trip by Wednesday? Or has he found lots of other urgent places to visit?
‘Gilmore faces selection probe’
The selection of former city councillor Sheila Gilmore as Labour’s candidate for Edinburgh East at the next Westminster election has been called into question after claims the proper procedures were not followed.
… David Walker, one of two scrutineers, claimed one postal vote was allowed to be counted although the identity could not be verified while another was disallowed for the same reason.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Gilmore-faces–selection-probe.5208016.jp
Oh dear. Pakistan has just cancelled the PMs news conference in protest at the police raids in the NW.
Tacki Smith U turns on Government Data Base and Harriet looks like dropping 2nd home vote in favour of votes on points ‘agreed’ at the Tri-Leaders meeting when Dave and Nick walked out.
Bit of a bum week eh Gordo? (And only two days in!)
Pakistan PM Cancels Press Conference with Gordon Brown
If he does dodge PMQs yet again this week, I would change my position on the merit of Cameron showing up regardless. He should turn up and demand in six increasingly contemptuous ways that the PM get his arse back to THIS country and stand there and answer for his record. I didn’t really agree with people who have suggested this before but the time is now ripe.
Pakistan PResident has cancelled a news conference with Gordon Brown. Obviously he doesnt like Gordon blaming Pakistan for being the crucible of terrorism. What a fcuking pillock.
101 - PM = President.
94. Aaron. Thanks for that and also the Dumbarton tip. I will have a look.
Intuitively I know that what you and I are saying is correct but somewhere in my post (at 63.) I have gone wrong. My backing and laying strategy on Betfair only produces a £31.25 profit if the Tories actually win. I’ve made a mistake in one or two of the steps! Oops! Red face.
My head now hurts.
96 I’d need to look at the ward level data in great detail, but it looked to me as though there was a far closer correlation between ethnicity and voting preference, than there was between social class and voting preference.
Wonder how Pravda going to spin this snub?
98
He’s in Pakistan at the moment - having a joint press conference with the President of Pakistan scrapped - apparently Pres was none too happy about having his students arrested two weeks ago
93.I wonder, if at present, it might be deemed the better option for Brown? Going on that youtube effort, and the less than harmonious meeting between the party leaders last week, the worry might have been that PMQ’s would be another disaster for Brown?
But if Brown does avoid PMQ’s this week, the worry now will be that this regular absences from the despatch box becomes the story in yet another negative way for him.
98. GB would clearly rather risk Taliban attacks than David Camerons.
96. looking at manifestos for the last GE it would not take a genius to see why immigrants might have voted against mr. Howard.
101: Brown being about as effective as Milliband in that part of the world then.
FPT 171. “If Afghanhanistan is lost, so is Pakistan.”
Pakistan is falling apart *because* of Afghanistan. The neocons forced Musharraf to attack the northwest frontier which got all the Pashtun tribes stirred up and *pushed* them into the arms of the Taliban. Then after causing that disaster they decided to get rid of Musharraf who was the main thing holding it all together.
The whole thing is a big steaming pile of neocon crap that has nothing to do with us and everything to do with trying to snag Pakistan’s nukes for Israel. They want Pakistan to collapse and couldn’t give a flying f**k about the bods getting hurt over there in the process and even less about the suicide bombs that will end up going off in Oxford Street if Pakistan does collapse and we still have this government’s insane open borders policy.
80-Fiat is looking to acquire GM units in addition to going after Chrysler? I wonder how Fiat has the heft to do this to the exclusion of all others.
“Swine fever” would be an excellent and more stylish name for the expenses scandal than anything ending in -gate.
94 Aaron, agree Dumbarton look good for promotion. They should never have dropped from Division 2 in the first place.
I think the official spin that Pravda will take, is that it’s no snub, it’s protocol that the British PM meets the Pakistani PM (Totally ignoring the fact, that Tony Blair always met the Pakistani President)
Its becoming seriously embarrassing. Loathed at home, loathed abroad…….
34 Beer money to you Richard! How do you feel about my “free money” bet suggestion on Poplar & Limehouse as per the previous thread.
Hmm
http://www.order-order.com/2009/04/dave-the-rave/
118 - MTF - He’s not loathed, he’s despised like no other PM before.
I asked Shadsy for odds that Brown would miss PMQs yet AGAIN. I suggested evens was a fair bet.
What a weaselly litte coward he is. Come back and face the music you girning twonk with your weird moving “shoulders”.
Anyway now that every prime minister has refused to see him, he has no excuse. Get back here, chicken Gord.
116. i have always thought that one of the most remarkable things about the way football has come to dominate sports reporting in this country is that you can get match reports and place bets on scottish third division football, but never get to hear about top level action in other sports.
97- “If it does become widespread and god forbid there are significant numbers of fatalities, then fairly or not, it begs the question ‘How did it become so widespread - we spend a fortune on the NHS…”
This crisis began in the U.S. Haven’t you heard that before?
99 Stuart you would think they might try and get their selection processes right in at least the constituencies where they will struggle to hold the seat! Kenny MacAskill must be delighted at the prospect of being joined by an SNP MP.
111 Looking at the sort of campaign Livingstone ran last year, and Harman’s “Equality” Bill, it wouldn’t take a genius to see why London’s voting patterns are polarising along ethnic lines.
102. Frederick. If Cameron did do that he could seriously stick the knife in on Brown with a comment of something like this.
‘Well I might as well asks questions of the likely next leader of the Labour Party as the current one doesn’t feel it sufficiently important to turn up’.
It gives Cameron practice anyway…….
114
You’re almost certainly right.
My error.
124. joking aside it is hard to see how even the Cameron spin operation could pin this one on the NHS
I noted when Harpy was interviewed on TV this morning she said time was being made to debate the second homes issue on Friday.
Talk about trying to manipulate things. Everyone knows that MPs who live out with Greater London tend to return home on a Thursday evening and do constituency surgeries on a Friday.
Ergo the MPs genuinely most affected by the ALA and expenses are potentially being excluded from the debate. She is as twisted and devious as Brown.
129 - Ed, this is how you blame the government
http://www.order-order.com/2009/04/deregulation-before-swine/
127 - and he should of course ring Brown beforehand - as a courtesy, natch - to warn him of his intention… a fraction too late for him to catch a plane back. Might just bring on a seizure…
126. yes. i hope it doesn’t continue to an extreme. i hope all parties can be a bit more positive than they have been on this.
The Petition is now up to 14,415 signatures, and rising fast.
That’s how it goes…
Being a political junkie, I recently had to disconnected my brain from the news for a few weeks — and when I kinda logged in this morning, through the likes of Drudge and Google News, I’ve felt an hard affect striking my tight belly : things seemed to have deteriorated. Global pandemic? The Talibanization of Pakistan? Huge massive government in America.
Made me think of this Leonard Cohen’s song:
And everybody knows that the plague is coming
Everybody knows that its moving fast
…
Everybody knows its coming apart
Take one last look at this sacred heart
Before it blows
And everybody knows
131. presumably that budget must have included special measures for F&M disease though.
of course if people want to believe that the plan (before budget cuts) was for special screening of all inbound passengers from mexico for as-yet-unseen strains of animal diseases, then they can do.
134. And one of them is me!
If Brown does try and cop out of QT this week I hope an enterprising Tory MP takes a tub of lard into the House on Wednesday….
137 I signed yesterday when it was at 8,500.
129. The NHS is responsible for public health is it not? Surely controlling the spread of such a disease (accepted as difficult as it is) is therefore their responsibility. If a fatal disease does spread widely then their measures would be ineffective.
Now I accept that there are many mitigating factors and in reality it is hard to expect any organisation to address such issues with total success.
However, if you have an unpopular Government and a suspect NHS who have already been exposed for failures in controlling diseases in their own hospitals (e,g, MRSA) and there is a severe outbreak of a disease in the population then whether it is fair or not chances are they will be blamed to some extent.
I agree it should not happen but it likely will and none of the political parties will be at the bottom of it or go anywhere near it. The media would likely do it all on their own.
138 Or a bucket of horse manure.
Aaron. Thanks for the tip for Dumbarton but I will give it a miss. Betfair odds are only slightly shorter than the 8/15 available with the bookies.
Interesting to compare maximum stakes available on different markets with Paddy Power. Dumbarton to win Division 3 at 8/15, max stake is £1670. Chelsea to win the FA Cup at 4/9, max stake £20,015. Tories to win Bedford at 1/2, max stake £93.30. To be fair a different example is Tories to win an overall majority at 4/9, max stake is £502.
Brown forced to drop plans to replace MPs expenses:
http://ub0.cc/3Y/6c (via @theredbox)
Ha ha, idiot. How did he manage to f*ck even /this/ up? Gordon has talent for turning even the most benign political circumstance into a weapon against his own feet.
134. Sean Fear. Brown should pull that petition immediately if he’s got any sense. I wonder if he actually knows about it?
126. I catn believe the pure bigotry inside the ‘equalities’ bill. Actually allowing (but in essence, obliging, as failure to do so will, through industrial tribunals be evidence of racism) an employer to use race as a means of selecting an employee.
Some how this is anti-racist.
145 Will the Conservatives have the cullions to oppose it?
144
wouldt that be more damaging than leaving it there?
@144:
Do HM Govt. know what an Internets are?
Recent behaviour suggests not. I think they think it’s a small township in Surrey, full of Tory trolls and paedos.
145 It will clearly be mandatory for central and local government to discriminate, and pressure will be put on private companies that deal with the public sector to do so.
146. it seems not, as that useless gibbon, Theresa May actually ‘welcomed’ it.
140. well, is it?
isn’t that like saying the police have failed every time a crime is committed?
@146:
Why would we want to oppose a bill whose primary purpose is to make Hattie Labour leader? Surely that’s something we *want*?
144.stjohn, noticed that the media are now picking up this story and reporting on it in their online editions.
142 - I wouldn’t particularly trust betfair on such thin markets. Better to look at the fixture list.
Our (bookies generally, not PP) limits are usually based on (a) our depth of knowledge (b) the strength of the market and (c) the [perceived] integrity of the event. Even (c) is in doubt for some politics markets
EDIT - you can usually ask for more online with most firms; or failing that ring them.
(FAO the powers that be: comment editing is broked. Apparently I ‘do not have permission’ to edit my own comments)
140.Blame? Easy.
Not enough vaccine, the wrong sort of vaccine, the wrong priorities for vaccination, poor distribution of vaccine…
That’s the standard trope for any epidemic.
To be fair, the blame is usually dumped not on the NHS but on government and the DoH. Quite right and proper.
Oh, that Foot & Mouth outbreak the handling of which got Gordon off to a good start. It was the Treasury that refused to stump up the funds for the (known) necessary maintenance and upgrading, the lack of which caused the outbreak.
148. can’t really blame them. internet influence on politics is still in its embryonic stage, isn’t it?
145. At least it will cut unemployment as a whole class of stasi-style informers and monitors will be needed. And someone will have to monitor them, too…
155 same here but i was permitted to earlier, v bizarre
156. but as you say, it got him off to a good start despite that, so it can’t really have been that successful a “blame”
150 She’s up there with John Bercow as a Conservative MP I’d happily see given a free transfer.
134. Sean - it had gone up by 300 when I just looked so it looks like someone is signing every 6 seconds at the moment…….
161. yes, don’t tell me: she is “shrill” and “hectoring”
155,159. was this while the 5 minute countdown was running, or after?
151. Ed. Yes it is and whether right or wrong the police aren’t exactly held in the highest esteem by significant sections of the population anymore are they?
161 - Is Mrs. Fear comfortable with what many observers would contend is your demonstrably hom0-er0tic feelings towards Mr. Bercow?
during, you cant edit after the countdown!!!!
160. The blame was avoided by casting suspicions on a commercial producer sharing the same site. No proof, of course, just lots of meaningful questions about an American owned (in fact it’s 50:50 US:French and placed there by the EU as one of 3 Europe wide centres) manufacturer of vaccine and how it ought to be investigated or maybe closed down.
Quite a nasty bit of spinning. And by the time the full report came out, nobody was interested anymore and Gord had been sanctified.
@166:
Does he still have the ‘Northern League 2 Football Team Manager’ centre parting?
Woof.
166 LOL!
162 Obviously it’s unlikely GB would resign or be resigned.
But surely the only time it could ever happen would be immediately after the Euro elections. It’s nigh on impossible in the middle of an election campaign and the conferences would trigger the GE campaign. If Labour want to change leader, it’s Friday 5th June or never.
163.I like Theresa May, but then, I have never understood the hype generated by some in the party about Dan Hannan either…
165. i don’t think that is because the crime rate is non-zero though. i think it is because they don’t solve enough of them.
likewise i don’t think the NHS is blamed for the presence of illness and injury. i think it tends to be blamed where treatment isn’t adequate.
162 - Where/what is this petition?
Oh dear, Gordo telling porkies again?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3568181/brown-plays-politics-over-troop-numbers.thtml
161 - I think she gets a very bad press. I’ve met her a couple of times and she is quite intelligent and engaging. She does have a tendency to think out loud, but that isn’t always a weakness. As to the equalities legislation, I would ask three questions initially. Do we have a problem? Do we need a solution? Does the legislation provide the right solution? I think the answer to the first question is that we do have something of a problem. Ergo I think the answer to two is that we do need a soluton. The third question is more difficult I think there are probably things in the legislation that are good, but I suspect that a lot of it is unhelpful, counterpoductive if not actually quite insidious.
Surely Brown cannot pull the petition? You can’t have a serious petition system if the government bans petitions it doesn’t like.
147 It depends. Brown will get negative publicity from pulling it. At the moment it’s got 14,000 signatures. If it just bimbles along and gets 20-30,000 signatures, then the bad publicity from pulling it will be much greater than the damage it could do. If it goes viral and gets 1.8 million like the road pricing one did… then yes he should have pulled it.
Cue sudden attack of indecision in No 10!
FPT:
381 stjohn - I need to read the last 3 paras of your post with a cold towel round my head!
I think you’ve rather skewed the figures in your final para however - a profit of £25 on an outlay of £125 is a 20% return, or at least it was when I went to school, not the 16.66% you suggest!
382 Martin - Glad you think it’s fun - it’s even more fun when we look to you to reimburse our losses should “No hope” Respect actually win!
174 http://tinyurl.com/dfrxm6
@179:
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.
THE VALUE OF MARTIN’S OPINIONS MAY GO DOWN AS WELL AS UP.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/rosa_prince/blog/2009/04/27/greetings_from_kabul_safe_arrival_no_thanks_to_gordon_brown
135. You quote that song and don’t go with
“everybody knows the boat is sinking
everybody knows the captain lied”
182 (cont) - “It was at this presser that Brown forgot the rules, broke his own black out and announced live on air that he was off for talks in Islamabad.”
What a T#t!
178 The Petiton is now through 15,000 - gone up 300 in ten minutes.
I don’t know about going viral - I think this is just about to be Gordon’s own Pandemic Petition…
179/181. PfP/Martin. I wil return to this when I’ve got it right!
15065 on No.10 petition now
173. And therefore if there is a serious outbreak and as I previously suggested people tragically die from such a disease then the NHS would be blamed for inadequate treament. Populations understandably do not like situations where there are human fatalities or personal loss and tend to blame the powers that be for it. It is not a justification, it is not a partisan viewpoint, it is just a fact of human nature and like all human tragedy it is one that the media tend to distatefully play on.
Whatever Government is in power such disasters are likely a no win / no win situation. The powers that be haven’t even got the get out they have with terrorism where they can create a tangible enemy out of it for the people to react to and that they can be seen as handing out retribution to.
Potentially, epidemics of this sort and other natural disasters are at best a no win/ no win situation and at worst can become a no win/ lose situation when those institutions held to account are already perceived as flawed and/or are unpopular.
Who cares as long as McNulty is one of those queueing up at the job centre?
182.Rosa is not amused with Gordon Brown.
“You shouldn’t actually know that we’re here yet - it was supposed to be a closely-guarded secret until the start of a press conference with the Pakistani PM.
It’s a system Downing Street often employs; imposing a news black out until the Prime Minister is safely in the country giving the baddies little time to plan an attack.
Indeed, a strict embargo was in place as we flew into Kabul this morning ahead of Mr Brown’s news conference with President Karzai.
It was at this presser that Brown forgot the rules, broke his own black out and announced live on air that he was off for talks in Islamabad.
And indeed, two hours on we have now landed safely in the Pakistani capital - no thanks to Gordon!”
It neatly ties in with the point that Fraser Nelson makes on the Coffee House blog - Brown plays politics over troop numbers
“Brown has a habit of demanding something to announce on these trips, even if there is nothing. I have heard anecdotes about how his aides have to cook something up on the plane, and then he spins it far further than it should go”
Is this the reason that his planned press conference with the Pakistan President was cancelled? What a numpty!
122. “you gurning twonk with your weird moving “shoulders””
Curious how that phrase could apply just as well to another (former) PM no doubt almost equally beloved by Sean.
On the Purnell dirty flat story. Looks to me like a well placed smear from somewhere close to team Balls.
wonder at his stupidity in having flat cleaned thoroughly before he left or handed back the keys, not going round with agent and tick list and agreeing/disagreeing any issues (or having someone do this for him). While he wouldn’t have expected publicity it’s all too common for landlords to claim cost of professional cleaning and damages.
This excuse for government is beyond the pale
Jackoots Jaquie trotting out the standard line in defense of tracking everyones internet activities
We must set up a police state because “doing nothing is not an option”
Cant these Labour fuquers get it through their thick socialist heads that “doing nothing” is often the best option
192 - If someone else is picking up the tab, you don’t think about that kind of thing.
185/187
There could be a sudden surge this evening. Not only do you have to sign up online, you have to click on a link sent to you by email. So I would guess that even if a lot of people are initially signing up via the web connection at work, they will give their home email address and have to wait until this evening before they can confirm.
187 2,000 signatures in two and a half hours.
193. Labour doing nothing for the next fifty years or so sounds like the best option, for sure.
144 & 134,
Of course the “dumb one” know’s about the petition. He probably has misread it and thinks it’s a “petition of support”
Go on Gurner shrug those shoulders just once more so we can have a big laugh !
63 STJOHN’S FIRST RULE OF BETTING:
WHERE YOU SEE VALUE ACT QUICKLY.
Re P&L - As of 2 minutes ago, Chandlers still had Labour at Evens and SkyBet still had the Tories at 2/1.
PfP’s first rule of betting should be - Don’t share free money opportunities with the masses until you are on yourself …. in fact I’ve only just placed the 2/1 side of this bet!
190 Press conference being cancelled looks again like lack of preparation - did the President of Pakistan know Gordon was coming until yesterday/today? If Downing St/Foreign Office had organised then you would have expected the High Commissioner to have known that President would have reservations and fed that back.
Has overtones of the Obama visit where no preparation seemed to have been made properly on either side or appointment of Des Browne as Sri Lanka envoy without telling Sri Lanka.
If 20 Million people (theoretically I Know, I Know…) signed the petition, how the hell would Gordon be able to stay in the job? Constitutionally, he is there until HM asks someone else to take his place, but morally he is already on thin ice.
re 52 let me guess - Mr Purnell has by now popped up to say that all his claims for expenses were within the rules and he’s done nothing wrong.
198. I wonder some film producer is looking to recruit Gordon Brown and Jacqui Smith for the leading roles an equal opportunities remake of ‘Dumb & Dumber’.
;o)
wonder = wonder if (the edit facility won’t let me edit my posts)
200.Ted, I wonder when the press conference was cancelled? If it was after Brown announced his intention to visit and hold one with the President, then considering the delicate and unstable situation in the country, I would expect that they too need the security of a news blackout until they hit the airwaves together.
Is “tam1flu” a banned word?
SINISTER CONSPIRACY ALERT.
Political Betting is brought to you in association with Pork Marketing Board. Remember kids, “Beef is the Devil’s Spunk!”
The petition is now only 5,000 signatures away from featuring on the epetitions front page as one of the top 5 most signed current petitions.
13,000 needed to go top.
FPT “Possibility of a Conservative MP in Tower Hamlets? Blimey! First since … ever? Is this likely to be demographic change (Canary Wharf, New Docklands, etc., or the others being split between Lab, Lib-Dem, Respect, BNP?
by archroy April 27th, 2009 at 10:39 am ” While looking up your query I came across this; “In the same year Mancherjee Bhownagree became Conservative MP for Bethnal Green. He was re-elected in 1900″ I’m not expecting a similar result next time round though. http://www.movinghere.org.uk/galleries/histories/asian/politics/politics.htm
206: could be because of an anagram of a four letter term in the middle of that word.
207.
Soon be #1
In the meantime a trip down memory lane
We’ve come close before!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ba7glghZ4w
************** Next Poll Prediction ********************
Just for a bit of fun I’m guessing next poll as follows (I was spot on with the You Gov poll l;ast week so I’m feeling confident)
Comres
Con 46 Lab 24 Lib 23
ICM
Con 46 Lab 25 Lib 20
125. Easterross - “… you would think [Labour] might try and get their selection processes right in at least the constituencies where they will struggle to hold the seat!”
Exactly. I can’t believe how stupid they are being. The dirty-fighting within the Scottish Labour Party is far worse than any of the excrement which it flings at its opponents.
They are miles and miles behind the game in lots and lots of constituencies. Labour could end up losing the next UK GE on poor organisation alone, even leaving aside the masses of other hurdles they face (mostly self-created).
Sean Fear April 27th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Yes she was the Conservative politician who turned her back on me and is a modern day judice! Her ‘defeat or defection’ would be A Tory Gain!
The pleasure burning the letter she sent me and seeing her signature going up in a blue flame/smoke was great!
Sorry I forgot to comment on the thread Poll!
Yellow Taxi for Mr Clegg!
judice = Judas!
207. Closing date for the petition is October 22nd, so should get up a good head of steam by then if it is not pulled.
@212:
I read somewhere that it’s estimated that in Scotland, the SNP will be able to outspend Scottish Labour by nearly 3:1.
Similarly in England, the Tories should outspend Labour by 2:1.
Judith! Quiet here today. Where’s Tim?
199. Peter. See my post at 70.
re 139, I was number 9983 at about 11pm last night.
How is it that the government continue to choose the worst possible option in almost every case?
They’ve decided that (a) sex education should be compulsory and (b) schools can apply their “values” to the lessons, such that, in particular, faith schools can preach that homosexuality is teh badness, or using condoms doesn’t stop AIDS, and is wrong, or whatever.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2009/apr/27/sex-education-contraception-schools
@221:
That’s an obvious side effect of New Labour being a political movement that was ever devoid of anything approaching a core principle or belief beyond re-election.
If you’re expecting a moral stand from Labour, you’re looking in the wrong place. (Except maybe from Hattie.)
Oh - Swine flu hits manchester on Sky!
http://news.sky.com/skynews/
191. I’ve just realised what Gordo’s weird “shoulder swaying” movement, in the Notorious Expenses Video, now reminds me of.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBXj5l6ShpA
(the eerie socialist shoulder-shuddering occurs about halfway through)
He looks like one of those burlesque dancers in a Wild West saloon, at the end of her strip, who bends forward to “twirl” the tassels on the ends of her nipples, by making her hooters go up and down, and maybe left to right.
This is the only explanation for this otherwise inexplicable movement. In the privacy of his own home, Gordon likes to relax by getting topless and attaching shiny tinsel to his nipples. Then he bounces around the kitchen shaking his shoulders, so his prime ministerial manboobs go up and down - and left to right - and the tinsel goes twirly.
No doubt this is the cause of much amused laughter from Sarah, and the Number 10 staff, and various aides and passing EU ambassadors.
So why repeat it? I reckon this “twirly time” must be a cherished moment of intimacy for the Browns, so the prime minister unconsciously reenacts the happy memory during times of stress, as a kind of Freudian defence.
It all - suddenly - makes sense.
218. Wallowing somewhere in the cesspit
@223:
I’ll bet you ten pounds it’s not.
We’re going to have to put up with days of this Aporkalypse bollocks from a malignant self-serving media trying desperately to wring out a full-scale public health panic.
Queues of porcine offcut enthusiasts will be panic buying Spam by teatime.
@224:
Are you trying to make twirly-time the new farmy-farm? I approve.
224 You’re weird!
226 - Martin, you win “best word of the day” there for “Aporkalypse”.
You also owe me a fresh cup of tea!
226. Have a heart man, millions in newspaper sales and research grants are at stake…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/cartoon/2009/apr/27/swine-flu-globalrecession
224 Farmy-farm was less vomit-inducing…
227
I don’t.
The image has put me right off my dinner.
224. SeanT April 27th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
226 - Aporkalypse might be my favourite new word
224.
A classic post Sean T and I will ensure this makes the short list somewhere.
You will go far indeed
218 “Quiet here today. Where’s Tim?”
The state of the real economy finally hits home, as cuts prove unavoidable at The Bunker…
229. Id April 27th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
No doubt Brown will make a real Pigs ear of it!
234 - I’m not sure he’s capable of staying still, Martin.
I’m sure psychologists will tell us it’s something sub-conscious about telling lies.
tim’s a farmer isn’t he? Clearly he’s already copped it from the swine-flu.
238 - Well, you know, Martin, you can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.
Does this mean we’re on porcine humour all day now?
240
lol
Martin Coxall.
Aporkalypse - This word could be so easily used to also describe the MPs’ expenses scandal.
235 Aporkalpse is up there - with “catastrof*ck”
Carastrof*ck noun anything in the public domain which must originally have been thought by someone to be a bright idea, but goes horrifically (albeit, comically) awry. See also: the collected Youtube works of Gordon Brown.
“tim’s a farmer isn’t he? Clearly he’s already copped it from the swine-flu”
Also, I hear the symptoms are worse the less mature you are…
224. You’ve dismissed the idea that it’s his nipple rings getting caught in his string vest, then?
240 Slackbladder, I’m sure tim will be here later with a suitable Clintonesque explanation for his absence this afternoon. ‘”I did not have sexual relations with that pig…”
227. lol. I was getting bored of farmy farm. Thought it time to introduce a new Gordon Is Bonkers pb meme.
The shoulder thing IS weird. WTF is he doing? You can kind of understand the plastic smile. He’s been told to smile, he just doesn’t do it in the right places, or like a carbon based life form.
But the shoulder quivering? Did the director lean over and say, “Prime Minister, this isn’t working for me, do you mind shuddering your shoulders like you have electric udders that are suddenly shorting? Yes. That’s perfect!!”
‘Babe III: 28 Pigs Later’
We had a bit of a talk here yesterday about separation of church and state, and now comes this controversial image of Our Savior that is soon to be displayed in one of the most popular spots in New York City:
“On his 100th day in office, President Obama will be “crowned” in messianic imagery at New York City’s Union Square.
Artist Michael D’Antuono’s painting “The Truth” – featuring Obama with his arms outstretched and wearing a crown of thorns upon his head – will be unveiled on April 29 at the Square’s South Plaza.
According to a statement released about the portrait, “The 30″ x 54″ acrylic painting on canvas depicts President Obama appearing much like Jesus Christ on the Cross: atop his head, a crown of thorns; behind him, the dark veil being lifted (or lowered) on the Presidential Seal. But is he revealing or concealing, and is he being crucified or glorified?”
Even the title of the piece, “The Truth,” suggests a play on biblical themes, as Jesus said in John 14:6, “I am the way, the truth, and the life: no man cometh unto the Father, but by me.”"
http://worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=96138
Will this public iconography become a shrine to our living Deity? ACLU, where are you?
247: He’ll be ok, all he needs is a little onik-ment.
224. From The Times
“He is smiling and rocking a bit from side to side, as if he were on a donkey at the seaside “
How close to “rocking horse” is that?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6143530.ece
250 He’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty boy……..
The Standard has the voting intentions poll as a footnote - main story is that Alan Sugar would easily beat Boris if AS stood as an independent, with leads apparently in all age and socio-economic groups. Boris would beat a generic, unnamed Labour candidate 38-24, with 28 undecided, but would beat Livingstone by 49-33.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23681532-details/Sugar%3A+Mayor+job+is+a+walk+in+the+park/article.do
Meanwhile, protesters have superglued themselves to a statue in the HoC. A policeman warned me as I was going in, and we had this surreal exchange:
“Just wanted to let you know, sir, there’s some suffragettes wot have glued themselves to a statue.”
“Suffragettes? But…er..women do now have the vote.”
“Yes sir. Puzzling, innit?”
Further enquiry revealed that it’s actually climate change protesters. Greenpeace or Plane Stupid again, I suppose.
241. Id April 27th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
As long as no one thinks i am being a boar!
I’m more upset about the Virgin Megastore in Union Square closing than any stupid Obama sculpture (though, to be fair, it does sound *very* stupid).
“Don’t say that you love me,
Just tell me that you want me,
TUSK!”
My son and hs friends love the Weebls song. Pork is the meat of kings. Anyone seen this?
Can we please give all these pork-related puns the chop?
67, 72 et al. I’ve actually voted for all three main parties at various elections since 1997!
258 - why? There’s snout else to do…
250 Well that’s really going to help calm those christian republican nutters who claim that Obama is the antichrist.
258 MM, if you’re not interested keep your snout out of the discussion.
224- After watching that video, I must say in all seriousness that I’m surprised nobody has introduced Brown to someone who does eyebrows. I would think that would be public image 101 stuff. He could at least have them combed properly, if not actually trimmed.
258.
We will be stuffed if this keeps going! It is the constant dripping of phrases that makes it too rash to continue!
248. SeanT. Pick from the following:
1) Sign of OCD/body dysmorphia.
2) It’s the thin man inside Gordon trying to get out of Fat Gordon.
3) His shoulder muscles are connected to his smiling muscles.
4) He’s a weirdo.
OK 4) goes without saying.
255- Yes, Virgin is a fun store (I’ve shopped at the one in Union Square myself) and I’m sorry to see it go too. Other locations in NYC are also closing.
264 Tory Sow er grapes.
Do the symptoms of pork flu result in scratching….
263. It would create employment as well! A Prime Ministerial eye Brow comber! Whilst he was at it he could take gordon’s eye out and give it a quick polish!
*************** 240. HAS TIM GOT SWINE FLU ? ***************
He’s definately a swine but has he got the flu ?
I doub’t it - The grubby little man never leaves his bedsit!
211. I’m thinking 46-27-18 after the Tories shindig at the weekend;).
270 I wonder if tims absence, has anything to do with Gordon’s overseas jaunt?
Seriously though, how does who ever films Gordon’s talks to the camara keep a straight face? I would laugh my head off!
I would just not be able to stop it would be like sniffing poppers!
248. I have watched that video for the first time - I think it looks like he is trying to do an impersonation of Ted Heath, you know, like Mike Yarwood used to - all eyebrows and shoulders.
I’d love to see someone mash it together with a Ted Heath soundtrack.
Brown expenses proposal video moment is in impact much like the John Major’s underpants moment. It just makes the primary involved personally look rather silly.
The difference is that Brown’s was self-inflicted. If I recall Major’s wasn’t. So Brown looks doubly stupid as a result.
260
Now you really are scratching around.
274 Now that has to be a serious minority interest.
@257:
Ham and bacon you should taste ‘em, I know it’s surprising but they’re so appetising:
http://www.weebls-stuff.com/toons/Pork/
273 Martin, stop hogging the thread!
272,
Well Gordon did have a mut in the opicture with that soldier!!
274. It is the stupid and awkward poses he gets caught in as well! Obviously I have put flying mobiles with wings in this picture but what was he thinking being photgraphed in such a stupid pose! He looks like Mr Bean!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_VtzJPpPxkgw/SfRkEFdx2rI/AAAAAAAAAMg/gLMxKbCBq48/s1600-h/Brown+looking+stupid.jpg
Did you know that the Japanese equivalent of the phrase ‘ham actor’ is ‘radish actor’ (daikon yakusha)?
279. Not getting boared are you?
282 - RBH - Does that mean that bad actors “raddish it up”?
275,
It wasn’t Brown’s fault “it satred in America” !
283 No, I’m just fed up with all these posts about the pig.Let us move on to something else.
285 - Wayne, are you referring to “This youtube debacle, which started in America….”
278. LOL Martin! Thanks for the link. It’s one of those songs that sticks in your head and drives you mad after a while.
PBers. “Open the link at your peril”.
281- Hey, he does look like Mr. Bean in that pic! However, that tends to make me think better of him. Long live Mr. Bean!
The ironic thing about all this criticism of that youtube clips is that it’s really hard to do a piece straight down a camera lens. You’re more abnormnal if you do it without any self consciousness.
284, it probably sounds better in Japanese…
Would all those making childish puns please stop hogging the thread?
Anyone know when we find out the exciting new expenses proposals?
There are many more white people in Brent Central than West Indians. The idea Dawn Butler will win because she’s black is simply wrong. I think the key will be which way the Asian population votes and I thnk the economy will be a major factor in pushing this group away from Labour.
Added to that the fact Butler is thick as pig swill (see Obama note) and has horrid expenses including a ludicrous second home claim…
I’m on Sarah Teather.
How much more can Gord take ??
This from Young Conservative
The Libertarian Party UK (LPUK) have a quirky campaign going in response to last week’s savage work and aspiration-taxing Budget.
They’re calling on activists to post Gordon your used shirts - because his fiscal mismanagement is taking the shirt’s off the backs of every Briton.
Shirts should be sent to :
Gordon Brown
10 Downing Street
London
SW1A 2AA
If you do take part be sure to send us a snap of your parcel before you post it.
The last thing New Labour needs is a laundering scandal!
285,
Yeh everything “started in America” according to Gordon, apart from the Swine Flu - that started almost in America - well next door anyway!
So, EdP and Morris Dancer, what you’re saying is that you’re… TOTALLY PIGGED OUT?
(Sorry, couldn’t resist.)
@293:
I’m on Sarah Teather.
I hope you’re using crampons.
292 - Are you waiting for the new, revised troughing regulations, MD?
293:I’m on Sarah Teather
Well, whatever floats your boat, as they say…
I see the puns are still swilling around…
“Crampons” sounds a bit rude, doesn’t it..?
299 pass the poppers
“Added to that the fact Butler is thick as pig swill (see Obama note)”
I wouldn’t dispute that assessment, but it’s never been a bar to political success in the past.
299 - wasn’t Sarah Teather the MP heard shouting “I haven’t had a shag in months” in a bar at some point last year? I swear it was her, or another Lib Dem…
301, sounds a bit like ‘bum’!
I suppose it’s good news the expenses proposal by Brown will be revised, but I would’ve liked to see him lose a Commons vote.
With regards to Gordon Brown’s PMQs, I did a bit of analysis on this which I’ve reproduced from my blog. You need to go to http://righttocommonsense.blogspot.com to see the chart!
[i]With Gordon Brown busy in Afghanistan and then being snubbed in Pakistan it has raised questions as to whether or not he will be at PMQs on Wednesday.
In recent times it has been felt that Brown will look for ways to get out of PMQs so he can avoid tricky situations and questions which he is clearly so hopeless at dealing with. So being quite an analytical person I thought I would do some quick research. From Hansard I looked up each Wednesday since Brown became PM to see first of all if there was a PMQs and then if he was in attendance.
The results clearly indicated that whilst he had a good record to begin with, his attendance all of a sudden started to drop off. I had a theory that this avoidance of PMQs was driven by situations in the country and therefore the poll ratings at the time. The Guardian rather handily publishes a history of all their previous monthly ICM polls which I then used their Conservative lead percentage stat to plot against Brown’s attendance stats (I couldn’t find a historical archive of other polls but the main idea is to get a trend rather than the actual numbers). The result is what you can see below:
I need to explain a few details about this chart. The dark blue line shows Brown’s attendance percentage of PMQs over time (plotted against the left-hand vertical axis) - this starts at 100% and decreases each week he is not in attendance and will increase again each week he does attend. The purple line is the Conservative poll lead and is plotted against the right-hand vertical axis.
Quite clearly however you can see Brown has a perfect attendance record at PMQs whilst he is doing well in the polls for the first 6 to 8 months of his premiership. Then as things start turning against him you can see how rapidly his attendance record drops off. For a politician who wrote a book about Courage, it is quite clear that he does not even have the courage to keep up attendance at PMQs![/i]
303 - I think with two MPs standing, people will look at them closer and it will get a lot of coverage. I was not a fan of Ms Teather in her early days as an ‘accidental’ MP but she has grown into the role and is a damn sight better than Ms Butler. And she’s not stupid.
Lib Dem MPs not getting enough? One might argue that proves (by contrary example) the saying that power is the greatest aphrodisiac.
300 - I am gradually becoming disgruntled by the pig puns.
BTW Morris Dancer can you add to your manifesto a law against pavement dithering. It should be illegal on pain of death to meander across a pavement or walk very slowly in anything more than single file.
304 - According to recess monkey archives, it was back in September 2006 that she had gone 18 months. If she hasn’t been making bacon since then, she’s now close to 50 months into her lean spell.
304 No, it was the Peterborough Gorgon.
304: More built for comfort than speed, but still
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_tDcQwJH0cE8/RjFe2eY9diI/AAAAAAAAAdo/6T2WQB_n4j4/s400/Sarah%2BTeather%2Bin%2Bthe%2Bchamber.bmp
306- But given how bad Brown is at them, it might be better in the final analysis for him to take an avoidance approach… more positive than negative in the end. I’m sure he looks forward to PMQ’s appearances about as much as trips to the dentist for a root canal.
309, oh yes, I can indeed. I get pavement rage sometimes. Five fat people walking abreast would be punished by death in Morris Dancer’s Britain.
Edit: here it is…
People who stop suddenly or dawdle on pavements, or who walk several abreast, will be loaded into a trebuchet and fired into the Channel.
Have we heard whether we’re getting a CmRes poll in the Indy tonight?
304 must have been almost at the end of her teather.
313: I wonder if he would prefer the old 2 15min sessions before Blair changed it. He could then find more excuses to at least not attend one of them, and blag out 15mins easier than 30.
314 - Excellent. Let me know when you want help campaigning.
314
Why stop at the Channel? Is your gun so feeble that it cannot even reach Paris?
Alan Sugar is a non-runner !
Sir Alan Sugar ruled himself out of running for Mayor of London today after a poll suggested he would enjoy significant support among voters.
The tycoon said he thought the job would be a “walk in the park”, but there would be too many conflicts with his numerous business interests to make it possible.
A poll for London’s Evening Standard and ITV London Tonight found that 40% of voters would back Sir Alan if he stood as an independent candidate against incumbent Boris Johnson and Labour did not field a candidate, while 32% said they would back Johnson.
The 62-year-old star of The Apprentice told London Tonight he was flattered by the poll, but the appointment would not be practical.
“To be honest I have no idea what the duties of the London Mayor entails but in observing the past Mayor Livingstone and Boris the current one, I am confident that it would be a walk in the park for me,” he said.
“However, there is a major practical problem, which is a conflict of interest that would exist between my various businesses and that of the business of London.
“It would be cannon fodder to the media each and every time one of my companies sneezed, so regretfully - and at a great loss to Londoners and a mischievous media - my appointment is not practical, unless of course the media were to agree to behave themselves. No chance I guess.”
There were rumours last year that the gravel-voiced entrepreneur, who has described himself as a life-long Labour supporter, might stand as the party’s candidate in the next mayoral election.
The YouGov poll of 1,067 adults also found that if an election were held tomorrow with Johnson and former mayor Ken Livingstone as candidates, 49% would vote for Johnson and 33% for Livingstone.
314 - Could we have a specially strengthened trebuchet for fat people who squeeze their wheezy, sweaty bodies in next to you on trains or planes and overflow the armrests to invade your space when they really need to pay for two seats, MD?
317- I suppose if he did that now, it would just amount to an admission of weakness (so he should have realized his shortcomings and done it when he was still on top). But even that might be better than continuing to endure even occasional maulings for protracted periods.
319, I believe punishments should fit the crime. As pavement-dawdling is a worse offence than being one of Brown’s underlings the punishment is minor, and in some cases may not even cause death.
Also, I stated the villains would be launched be trebuchet, and getting one of those to cross the Channel would be quite a task.
321, hahaha, I was discussing this with my mum today. I proposed people get an absolute weight limit for their bodyweight and their luggage. Go over the limit and you get an extra charge, if you’re substantially under you get a rebate.
314 And Morris Dancer - those lorry drivers on a dual carriageway, where one idiot decides to overtake without the necessary horsepower and the other idiot lets him take about a quarter of an hour to inch past, while 500 cars back up behind them! Grrrrrr!!!
Trebuchet-fodder if ever there was!
@320:
Sensible man. Sugar knows he’s a non-starter, firstly because as a property developer, he’d have massive conflict-of-interest issues.
Secondly, he’s not a politician. He’s not ready for the cut and thrust of fighting a political campaign.
320. It was never going to happen. Sugar is the kind of guy that likes to spout off all the time but would never in a million years have the guts to put himiself and his credability on the line by actually standing for office.
New policy:
Fat persons will be obliged by law to purchase as many train, plane or theatre seats as necessary to contain their blubber. Failure to do this is rude and will result in them being fired from a reinforced trebuchet into the North Sea.
A more interesting question is, who would the Tory candidate be if Boris wants to be a one-term mayor?
I’m currently leaning towards James Cleverly.
329- On airplanes, passengers bringing howling babies should also have to pay all other passengers one dollar per minute of said howling.
For those concerned at the MP abuse of expense rules, I suggest they go to UTube and view the German film of abuse by MEPs. The situation in the European Parliament is even worse than here. I suppose our politicians never draw attention to it, bacause they all hope eventually to join that, even bigger and more corrupt, gravy-train.Cameron could put the elimination of that scandal into his manifesto without losing any votes.
320. Interesting that when given the forced choice, Boris leads Ken by 16 points. Doesn’t look like poor old Red will be back, though circumstances can change over the next 3 years I guess.
331 No, the howling babies should just be flung off the plane.
333 - maybe that’ll convince Ken to stop having his own little openings the day before Boris officially opens something. He’s just about the worst loser in the world.
333 - Despite his amazingly generous and not-at-all-bitter column in thelondonpaper?
Tsk.
335, after the General Election Brown could provide stiff competition.
Herbert Proper. What were the percentage of votes for Johnson and Livingstone at the election? Interesting to see the swing since.
335 - He went up in everyone’s estimation with his concession speech. Since then he’s been buying new shovels to dig himself lower than ever.
330. If anything has been proven about the role of the Mayor over the past 9 years, it’s that the most successful candidates have been both high profile and maverick. My view is that, being a personality-driven role (similar to that of a US Mayor/Governor) it’s best to go with someone high profile who you don’t have to spend three quarters of the campaign ‘introducing’ to the electorate. As such, Cleverly is perhaps not a great choice (in my humble opinion!)
331 Stars and Stripes - the Morris Dancer manifesto just gets better and better.
337. I imagine Brown is going to skulk off to North Queensferry and hide for, ooh, around 12 months until the shame sufficiently recedes and he can jet around the world campaigning for the IMF job (or some similar position).
342. Who in their right mind would put him in charge of the IMF?
343. Well, indeed. But I’m sure he’s seriously considered it. They would be mad to appoint him though.
342 Ha Ha. The odds of Brown landing any of the financial or economic positions he may desire, are extremely long.
330 - I don’t care how intelligent your thought process is, Martin, but I’d like to know which James you mean.
343. The same sort of people who made him PM?
Thinking back a while to Mandy’s comments (I think?) that Brown was ‘Moses’ and also of the ’Curse Of Broon’ got me thinking about the old testament story of the 10 Plagues of Egypt and rather than Moses, could Brown actually be the Pharaoh Ramases II (sometimes named as the contemporary Pharaoh of the time)? Is it then possible to make modern analogy of the 10 plagues as they might relate to Brown’s cursed existence and the current Labour Government hmmmm?
So bottling the general election could be seen as the Pharaoh refusing to set Moses people go and as a result the plagues/ curses are sent:
1 (Blood - The Nile turning red) - Public sector funding turning red.
2 (Frogs) - the EU Constitution, The G20 Merkel Sarkozy Show, Brussels bureacracy and Sleaze in general and of course the Hannan Broadside.
3. (Gnats) - Trade Union Unrest, BJ4BW etc.
4. (Wild Animals) - The Met Police & the Home Office (inc Jacqui) (G20 demos, Greengate, De Menezes etc) etc.
5. (Pestilence) - MRSA etc.
6. (Incurable boils) - Sleaze, Expensegate etc.
7. (Hail) - the right of centre media and blogosphere
8. (Locusts) - Bankers and failing banks
9. (Darkness) - Addiction to spin and smears and of course good old Mandy and Co.
10. (Death of Firstborn) - resignations, sackings and suspensions of Ministers/MPs/Lords/Advisors as a result of 4, 6 & 9 in particular (more to come perhaps?).
Hmmmm now could a further spate of resignations force Brown to go to the country?
Of course that would mean that Cameron is in the Moses role leading the people out of servitude and into the economic wilderness in search of the promised land (apt really in many ways).
However, it does mean that the poor old Libdems become the ‘golden calf’, the false god to whom supporters of Moses defile themselves whilst Moses is away getting the first set of 10 commandments (sorry LD peeps).
Anyway it’s just a bit of fun - in the best possible taste of course (it’s better than Mandy’s analogy anyway)!
125. Easterross, they cannot help cheating , it seems to be bred into them, the whole thing was a farce, even accepting postal votes at the count in dodgy envelopes.
331 — And me who thought the GOP was the party of family!
348 Your list is rather more sobering when you realise that both Gordon Brown and David Cameron have lost their first-born….
Still no sign of the revised expenses plan from the PM. I thought we were getting it this afternoon?
set = let
352. From Sky - Downing Street souces saying expenses is still a ‘complex issue’ but the rest of the proposals will be put forward in a motion on Thursday by the Harperson.
Interesting article from yesterday’s Sunday Post about last week’s Scottish YouGov poll.
Apparently the over-55s are deserting Labour for the SNP. For Westminster the SNP have a lead of 11% over Labour compared to a 2% lead for Labour when all respondents are taken into account.
It says the trend is the same for the Scottish Parliament where the SNP was in the lead overall.
If the over-55s are going for the SNP and knowing how they have a higher propensity to vote then things could get very messy for Labour in the Euro elections.
351. It didn’t even occur to me (holds head in shame).
@354:
The motion will be put forward without the SISO (”Sign In and Sod Off”) proposal, meaning the second home allowance will remain intact, John Lewis list and all.
Which utterly defeats the purpose of the exercise.
The rest of the proposals seem uncontroversial however.
354 Awesome - DC can raise it again on Wednesday and mindf*ck the Broon.
355: I never thought I would live to see the day when the Sunday Post was cited in evidence even by the Nats
16367 signatures, 12th place, 316 signatures short of 10th place.
http://tinyurl.com/petitionstats
(tinyURLed because the Number 10 site trips the spamtrap)
358.
But will DC mention the epetition ??
12th place on 16,367….. 316 sigs from 10th position.
4903 from 5th place and the homepage.
HPS. Snap! (nearly)
361 Is the PM pleased with the use of the Downing Street petition system? *snicker*
Just jumped to 10th place.
Indeed Brown has failed completely in addressing the real issue and as a result it only it only emphasises how little control/ influence he has over his own backbenches (and possibly frontbench as well?)
On a separate issue, I noted the way Alan Johnson played the Swine Flu announcement this afternoon. When Lansley responded it was clear the Johnson had ticked all the appropriate procedural communication boxes, discussing the matter and publishing his statement properly in advance.
Labour could do worse than getting rid of Brown for Johnson but they won’t.
Those who are enjoying watching the rise in the tally of the Gordon Resign petition, might have some fun watching as it passes various milestones - in this case, average attendances at football matches. It currently stands at 16,732, which is just shy of the Bristol City average gate this season. Next stop - Coventry…
http://www.fansfocus.com/football/championship/-attendances.php?comp=2
3947 from the top 5.
Meanwhile, great drama at the World Snooker Championship - the match between John Higgins and Jamie Cope has gone to a 25th and deciding frame - and it’s all been too much for one of the spectators, who’s fainted, and had to be seen to by paramedics!
The petition should be no. 1 by this time tomorrow.
Evening all! Can’t believe that again Brown went to meet the troops in a suit! He just looks so stiff and awkward! I can remember John Major going out to meet the Desert Rats after the Gulf War and addressing them standing on the front of a Challenger tank wearing an open necked shirt and a pair of slacks. Unlike Brown, Major really connected with the squaddies and my recollection is that it resonated well with the voters helping to form the impression of Major as a nice guy. Brown got criticized for doing that the last time he was in Afghanistan, seems that some people just never learn!
Any idea if this ComRes poll is out tonight?
365. jsfl April 27th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
When a similar set of poll leads for the Tories was about last summer, a question on Johnson being alternative PM rated him poorly - something like 19%!
That said, this Flu crisis may well present Labour with a chance if Johnson handels the Flu outbreak well - He might get significant public reconition and a platform to stop HH! Even if people start dropping in there thousands I don’t see any electoral advantage for Labour unless it hits Tory voters harder than other types of voters i.e. Old people. I think people have said it is most virulent on young folk unless people have been joking!
370, I recall Hannan’s speech to the spring forum, where he asserted Brown could not listen to criticism. He’s probably right.
341- I also wonder if we could do away with the archaic system of per capita taxation and instead tax people on a unit of volume basis.
371, he doesn’t want it. And that ‘I’m not up to it’ quote isn’t exactly helpful.
“Swine flu virus may cause global pandemic: UN chief”
Via http://drudgereport.com/
369 I hope all the Conservative MPs and Shadow Cabinet have signed - shame if DC mentioned it at PMQs but hadn’t added his signature.
Perhaps a petition should be started to get Brown to travel to Mexico on a fact finding mission?
366 - “Next stop Coventry”, MM. To where Gordon should be dispatched immediately.
the fight back commences
From the number10 website
http://tinyurl.com/c3z4rb
375- Do you really think he should mention it? I don’t think they should sign it nor should Cameron mention it. Let it serve as a diversion for Brown and Labour, not the Tories.
375: of course Dave should not sign it. Why would the next PM lower himself? Its just a bit of fun for foot soldiers like us.
378,don,is that the same bob roberts from the mirror ?
The hourly run rate today for the petition has been between 660 and 770… compared to about 200 per hour over the weekend.
On this basis it should make the top ten tonight and perhaps the top five tomorrow. The rate of growth is way faster than any other high ranking (current)… by factors of between 10 and 50 x.
One obvious target is 50,000 - the total signatories for Clarkson to become PM on a previous petition.
Gordon Brown severeley tests even those likely to vote for him. Anyone with half a brain would know that this expenses fiasco would resonate with the public like nothing else.
What he should have done is instantly sack from his own party those who have milked the system-however legal- followed by immediate outlawing of paying for mortgages on second homes, employing family members and demanding full publishable disclosure on second jobs prior to banning them.
He could by now be sitting on the moral high ground not fannying around. It must surely be time for the party to look for a competent leader?
378 - isn’t Bob Roberts that Labour councillor who posts on Iain Dale from time to time?
Possible Earthquake in Mexico.
368. Its comforting to know that even in the middle of depression and plague the Snooker Championships continue - A small oasis of calm in an otherwise chaotic world.
I see there’s now also a petition on the 10 Downing St site calling upon the PM to “carry on leading this great country of ours”.
One signature so far.
384. OMG, this is getting weird now.
378 1 signatory!
378 Number of signatories - 1
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahaha
johnno, don’t know but I suspect there can’t be more than one of him. He is a class act in his own way, if you look up the word indefatigable in the dictionary it just says, see Bob Roberts.
383,they’s a bob roberts always attacking thr tories on the daily mail blog.
371 Martin I accept the point but that was not the point I was making. As I said up thread there is little or no gain politically for such issues as a potential tragic epidemic. I was making a more general point
Johnson has shown a number of times that he doesn’t use playground spoiler tactics like not providing briefings and not communicating with his opposite number when really he ought. He basicaly does communicate and does show the opposition a basic level of respect.
In doing so he acts like an adult and a professional and by doing that allows the focus to stay on the issue at hand and not some spurious antics. Now if Labour knifed Brown and brought him in prior to the GE as an interim they might at least steady the ship and reduce the damage. They won’t do it though and as a result I suspect they may well lose more MPs than they necessarily needed to.
The thing is it is a bit late for them to do anything and as a result they will let Brown lead them into oblivion. As for post election, I don’t think Johnson will stand for the leadership (he says he doesn’t want it).
386- I wonder if a mischievious Tory started that one…
What has Mexico done - shot God’s dog?
382. If even Rog has had enough for the Clunking One things must be bad.
387, 24 months from now:
Gordon Brown revealed to be of Mexican descent.
That’s the first one of Henry’s 3 tennis tips from last night came in , hopefully the other two to follow later tonight.
382. Roger April 27th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Problem is and I have mentioned it many times before - Gordon is as bad as any other Labour MP for the westminister flat he claimed for whilst having the opportunity to use a No.10 flat. Brown compounded this by transfering it to his wife who took out a Lifetime Mortgage at a very young age - i.e. taking the equity out due to house price rises at the top of a boom created by Brown!
Oh - the institution that was involved with the Lifetime Mortgage - Lloyds TSB!
Earthquake with magnitude 5.8, according to Five Live.
Off topic: I see from my Will Hill account that the first of HenryG’s three tennis tips of yesterday has come good: Rochus to win at least one set against Chela (I’ve no idea who these chaps are, but thanks Henry!)
On the petitions: I think the ratio 16,732:1 slightly overstates Gordon’s popularity…
I’m wondering if this Swine Flu takes off if it will ahve implications for the Euro/County elections. If the whole of Europe is in the grip of an epidemic still would they be potponed?
night all off to work.
402. Possibly. They could be put off until Autumn? Autumn general election as well, in that case?
Now, i’m not saying Gordon Brown is a jinx
But the Mexican PM did meet Gordon Brown less than a month ago
http://ukinmexico.fco.gov.uk/en/working-with-mexico/state-visit/
405, no wonder the president of Pakistan refused to have a press conference with him. The last thing a country with Taliban and nukes needs is a visit from Brown.
400. Richard looks like he won 2-0 at around 5-1 odds. Henry certainly is hot on the tennis tips.
However happy with the 6-5 tip on winning a set, no complaints.
405. Beyond Parody!
404 - Possibly.
Pretty damning view of the Governments legislative announcements from the insiders (PHI100) on Politicshome:
http://www.politicshome.com/landing.aspx#7398
Brown resigning petition ~ 17030
Brown to stay ~ 1
Fightback what fightback
410. jsfl.
http://www.politicshome.com/Landing.aspx?Blog=7398&perma=link#7398
The table breaking it down into left, right, LD and nonaligned is particularly damning.
For those playing, these are the next “petitions” milestones:
18,044 - Cardiff City
17,849 - Southampton
17,408 - Coventry City
402 - James Burdett - That is a very good point.
Knowing the EU they would just cancel the elections, and do whatever it is they want anyway. ‘Business as normal’.
17,100 signatures, but has anyone who has signed up not received the confirmationary link from the No 10 site?
414, “Democracy is bad for your health.” It’d be enough to give unelected commissioners tented trousers.
361. Herbert. I hope the same individual voter isn’t pushing up this epetition through repetition.
414 - I think that they would have to have the election at some point, I just raise the issue. I was thinking back to 2001 and F&M and they postponed the elections then.
405 Now, i’m not saying Gordon Brown is a jinx
But the Mexican PM did meet Gordon Brown less than a month ago
http://ukinmexico.fco.gov.uk/en/working-with-mexico/state-visit/
The global plague that started in
AmericaDowning Street212 Wayne
Comres
Con 46 Lab 24 Lib 23
I doubt the shares of the vote for the three main parties will exceed 90%. On this basis I would guess Con 43%, Lab 27%, LibDem 20%.
405
I am looking forward to the YouTube ‘Downfall’ video.
The Taleban takeover of Pakistan is not the fault of so-called ‘neocons’.
The Taliban are Pakistan’s proxy army. They have been arming and funding them for decades.
When they got kicked out of Afghanistan, the Taliban found a home and safehaven in Pakistan. Pakistan unleashed a golem and the golem came home.
From start to finish, this is Pakistan fault - if indeed a country can be at fault, rather than the ISI or President Zia.
ComRes guess 41% Con 30% Lab 18% Lib
Hey I found the edit button on firefox
unable to get PB on Aol since 3.00pm yesterday
>Mike, I wonder if Labour will be punished more for these ridiculous expenses claims than either the Conservatives or the Libdems? Quite simple, they have presided over Westminster for 3 terms with stonking great majorities.
A point often missed is that Labour have the opportunity to suffer more by dint of having perhaps 2-2.5x as many MPs with information to come out in the records as the Tories.