Commons seat spreads reach new Tory high
April 27th, 2009
The buy price for the Tories on Sporting Index has hit the 360 mark for the first time as punters pile onto the Tories.
I was hoping for the othe main market, Extrabet, to put out revised numbers today but, alas, nothing.
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First?
BOOYAH!!
Wake me when it hits 500….
Follow the money.
Swine Flu confirmed in Scotland.
Swine flu confirmed in Airdrie - 2 in hospital and 7 other people who have been in contact showing mild symptoms.
Nicola Sturgeon confirming all cases outside Mexico thus far have been mild
I have an unconfirmed report that swine flu actually started on the farmy-farm….
7 - Morris Dancer - Here’s the evidence
Now, i’m not saying Gordon Brown is a jinx
But the Mexican PM did meet Gordon Brown less than a month ago
http://ukinmexico.fco.gov.uk/en/working-with-mexico/state-visit/
7. MD.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/don%27t-panic-but-you-are-going-to-die-200904271727/
8, Brown is like a cross between Odysseus and Sideshow Bob. He spends ten years battling the high seas of politics to reach his home, and then spends the next two constantly failing.
That’s without the well-documented reverse Midas touch.
So are we expecting a poll tonight?
A question for PBers. Which will be the first seat(s) on ukpolling reports list of Tory target seats that will trigger:
a) Tories being largest party?
b) A Tory overall majority?
c) A Tory landslide?
Is there potential for a Philadelphia Firewall type market on these possibilities?
At these prices I see no reason to go into the spreads. There is too much downside risk and no enough possible reward, especially as I personally expect that Labour will get at least one more significant rally before the election which would be a much better opportunity for selling Labour.
Off Topic (but it is going to come up so what the hell)
I wonder if Gordon will use this epidemic, which started in America, as an excuse for postponing the local elections. If the foot and mouth outbreak gives any indication of what will happen to the polls then the euro elections (which cannot be postponed) could get very ugly. Of course there is one major difference between Swine Flu and Foot and Mouth in that the Flu can actually infect humans.
The press at Nicola Sturgeons press conference seemed to be angling for some sort of extermination and burning of body solution - they were not at all happy that 7 slightly ill people are staying at home until heir symptoms subside.
This will get somewhat hysterical before its over - lets hope there is no actual reason for the hysteria.
Con win everything!
13. Well Sunderland Central is likely to be first to declare, barring recounts. The polls are now getting back to the range where it could go blue. If it does then Cameron can go straight to the Palace! Further up the list Edgbaston is usually among the first of the traditional marginals to declare, as is Basildon. Everyone remembers David Amess’ glee in 1992 as the harbinger of the Tory victory. Cardiff North is another seat that Cameron has to win, if any or all of them go blue then you’re looking at a comfortable Tory majority. Blackpool South and Southampton Itchen going blue would suggest a landslide.
16
That’s the spirit.
13. c) Sunderland Central
16 - Amen to that!
“Brown is like a cross between Odysseus and…”
As far as I’m concerned, Circe is welcome to turn him into a (flu-infected?) pig.
“That’s without the well-documented reverse Midas touch.”
Midas ended up with the ears of an ass; Brown already is one.
I know its off topic, but im looking at getting into the world of Political betting, and was wondering which company would be best to go with… but preferably not spread betting, yet. Is there a guide I cant see, or is there one that comes with pb.com’s recommendation or supports PB?
14 Chris - You might be right about the spreads, but it is hard to see what could trigger a significant rally for Labour now (other than Brown going).
OTOH, it is very possible that Labour’s in-fighting over leadership and direction, combined with the expenses scandals, further sleaze, and the steadily deteriorating employment figures, will cause further loss of Labour support. Personally, I think that is more likely on balance than a significant rally. On the other side of the equation, Cameron clearly knows exactly what he is doing, and I think his calm and well-executed strategy will gradually further harden Conservative support.
Having said that, I agree that at the present levels the spreads probably don’t offer good value taken in isolation. However, combined with bets on 325-375 Tory seats (which is where I’ve got most of my fixed-odds bets concentrated), they provide insurance against Labour meltdown (which once again now looks a distinct possibility). On that basis, I sold Labour a couple of weeks ago (at a slightly higher price than the current level).
If Brown resigns or is pushed, there would I think be a significant short-term boost for Labour. However, I don’t think the final result would be all that different.
13 I am hoping Sunderland Central will declare around 10.45pm and if it is also a Tory gain then as others uplist have said David Cameron can arrange his trip to see his 5th cousin (and I dont mean Harriet Harman even though she is also his cousin). It would mean the Tory majority in Sunderland Central would need to exceed 1000 to avoid a recount.
Equally however if we get told Sunderland Central isnt declaring first because there is a recount then Labour would still be in deep dog poo.
I just want to see Hazel (Comical Ali) Blears explain such a result as being good for New Labour
17/19. The Watcher, ScottP.
I meant that, once all the results are in, (and we have already accounted for any seats lost by the Tories through boundary changes or at the ballot box), then which seat, going down the ukpolling reports list, will be the target seat gained by the Tories that triggers each of the milestones?
Don’t know if I have managed to convey the idea any better?
13 In Scotland the first result could be an SNP gain.
On a Classical theme, wouldn’t the sight of Gordon Brown turn Medusa to stone!!!
If the General Election is held on the same day as the local council elections in 2010, then there will be local elections in London, the Metropolitan Counties, a lot of Unitaries and some District Councils. This will delay the GE counts.
As rural areas are normally slow to count, because ballot boxes have to travel up to 50 miles, then all this will significantly reduce the number of constituencies in the running to deeclare early. The first to do so could be an urban seat in Wales or Scotland.
Stephen Byers is at it again (over the 50p tax cut):
It has been suggested that the policy was an “elephant trap” for the Conservative party. “If it was an elephant trap,” said Mr Byers, “it was so large and well signposted that even the most myopic old tusker would have little trouble avoiding it. There are many ways of describing the leader of the opposition but a short-sighted elephant is not one of them.”
http://www.politicshome.com/Landing.aspx?Blog=7400&perma=link#7400
http://www.politicshome.com/Landing.aspx?Blog=7400&perma=link#7400
24. Got you now!
I’m more familiar with Baxter’s ordered seats page; http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.htm If I’m reading it right then the seat which would give the Tories a majority of 1 on UNS is Weaver Vale. I think they will need to win 270 to be the largest party and funnily enough seat 271 on Baxter’s list is Redditch! As for a landslide I guess it all depends what you consider to be a landslide to be! If we take it as a majority of 50 plus then Delyn and Brent North are the benchmarks.
27. We also have to give ZanuLabour time to stuff a few votes for Labour in the boxes
Stephen Byers attacks the Budget’s 50p…
http://tinyurl.com/csjdhz
28 jsfl - Byers is spot-on, of course. The idea that Cameron and Osborne would fall into that trap is risible.
24. Ok, which seat on that list gives them 326 seats… If you take the list in order that can only be one of a very small number.
28 - Snap!
22 Richard, when you look at what is happening within Scotland, Labour could be heading for meltdown.
Monklands: John Reid’s CLP at war with Labour HQ in London over the wish to impose an all female candidate list including Harpy’s assistant.
Edinburgh East: Gavin Strang’s successor may be stripped of victory due to questions over her selection.
East Lothian: Labour HQ London had to step in due to CLP civil war caused by a major group trying to deselect the sitting MP in what is also the Holyrood leader’s constituency
Falkirk both seats: Controversy over Major Eric Joyce and Michael Connerty’s expenses claims. Both seats 25 miles from Glasgow and Edinburgh but they have the highest claims in Scotland
EDinburgh South: Nigel Griffiths, say no more
Easterross at 6:44pm “I just want to see Hazel (Comical Ali) Blears explain such a result as being good for New Labour”
I’ve never understood why politicians of any party bother spinning on election results show - it’s not as if there’s so much as one vote still up for grabs. Far better to just take the results on the chin and retain a bit of dignity.
(OT, I’ve just done a YouGov with a voting intention question - plus lots of stuff about fresh fruit and vegetables.)
25. Easterross , what seat do you reckon that would be.
35 Easterross - Yes, Labour in Scotland does look pretty chaotic at the local level. The interesting question is to what extent that is also true in Wales and England, and also at the higher levels of government. We do seem to have had a very marked increase in ministers and former ministers going off-message.
I was having a “lively debate” with a Labour Party activist this afternoon.
When I told her that debt would reach 80% of GDP on the Government’s own likely-to-be-inaccurate estimates, she looked at me as if I had landed from another planet. She didn’t have an answer. No justification. No nothing.
She didn’t bother responding to my question about the interest of that debt or what would happen if our credit rating went down (she actually looked as if she had forgotten that we would have to pay interest).
She couldn’t explain to me why it was justified that we should put childen in debt until they are 23.
And she had absolutely no comeback to my reminding her that the rate of growth in public spending was about to go lower than under Thatcher, that unemployment is due to top three million, or that this recession could very well be the worst since 1931, worse than anything seen in the 80s or 90s.
These Labour activists - they’re delighted that Brown’s having a go at the rich (of course they are), but press them hard enough and they have no answers to give.
33 Scott, Wells has an article on these seats on his website. The ones which point to largest party, bare majority, bumper majority, LibDems doing well, Labour doing well etc, all based on the new boundaries. I seem to remember seeing Luton North being one for a majority of 50
22. There are are two points that I think could produce enough of a rally to be selling opportunities, the Party conference and Christmas. Christmas because the weird polls and sampling problems that you get there could well lead to an over representation of the Labour core vote (as happened last winter). The party conference because any party that cannot get some kind of poll boast from their conference (especially with the fawning coverage Pravda is sure to give) really is DOOMED.
These are pretty obvious upcoming polling features, and the reason that I think that they could become selling opportunities is that as we know from the budget Labour is making sure that the public sector is shielded from the budget as much as possible we also know from polling that the public sector is disproportionately Labour voting (hence why they are shielding their payroll vote). We therefore get a situation where those that are Labour inclined have significantly more free cash than those that are not and so when good polling news comes in that could disproportionately shift the spreads to Labour, as happened before the G20.
I could be wrong but if I am the downside risks of going on now are more than the downside risks of my waiting to see if I’m right since we are already at an upper bound of what the polls are likely to do. If I remember rightly a couple years ago 30% was considered Labour’s core vote not the mid 20s so we are not likely to get any big changes away from them now.
Yes UK Polling Report has the seats to watch.
Luton South has been won by the winning party at every election since 1951 apparently
24. Scott P. Yes. For overall majority, which seat on the list on elction night actually gives The Tories 326 seats and for Tory landslide which seat actually gives The Tories 375 seats.
They have 198 seats to begin with. It won’t be target seat 128 and target seat 177 that trigger these milestones. It will take more than this. There are boundary changes, more seats contested this time, Tories might lose some seats, Tories definitely won’t win some seats low down on the list, such as Eastleigh.
I have become totally antipathetic towards Spread Betting;not because of the levels of the various Parties but because of margin calls.Who on earth except extrabet thinks that a 100pt margin call on a Sell of the Lib Dems is remotely fair ?
Anyway if you have watertight credit facilities then everything is KOOL&TheGANG.
Iam going to suggest a very unusual play but am not in a position to broadcast why it is so effective.
Sell CONS at 355 and also Sell LAB at 220.Do this only if you are not having to deposit two margin calls and thank me in 2010.
37 Malcolm Dundee West or Glasgow North could be in the running but suspect it to be a more unlikely gain like Kilmarnock or one of the “safe” Lanarkshire seats
41 Chris - Fair points, but I guess it depends on the weight you attach to the economic situation; I still believe the general public hasn’t fully understood the gravity of the problems yet. The polls on people’s personal view of their own economic prospects still look over-optimistic.
Also bear in mind that the spreads already discount some ’swingback’, compared with the most recent polls which correspond to Labour getting under 200 seats.
32. Richard Indeed, it beggars belief that the Brown camp (Brown himself?) think that that sort of politics has any chance of working especially now when people expecti it of them.
Re 13: Not knowing what a Philadelphia Firewall is I’ve probably misunderstood this but wouldn’t recounts put a spoke in the works in projecting which seats will be the ones to mark the milestones St John has suggested?
39. On the “soak the rich” front, I am slightly surprised nobody (apart from Michael Caine) has produced the “West Wing” argument yet.
Sam is having a discussion with someone when he points out that he pays something like 4 times the average in taxes (like many UK high earners), but the fire brigade do not repsond 4 times faster if his house is burning, the water does not come out of the taps 4 times faster, his bins are not emptied 4 times as often…
High rate tax payers already pay a disproportionate share; in what sense is it “fair” to ask them for more?
49.”High rate tax payers already pay a disproportionate share; in what sense is it “fair” to ask them for more?”
Scott, Brown did exactly the same to the lowest earners last year. And to be honest, I don’t think they have been paying a disproportionate share in recent years. If anything, its the lower earners who got caught in the higher tax bands that suffered disproportionately.
The flu numbers in Mexico are rising by the hour. Were it not for the fact it had an earthquake an hour ago I would have said similar to the way numbers usually mount up after an earthquake.
Meanwhile Channel 4 News just announced MOD intends to move all nuclear subs to Faslane by 2015. Given that today we heard about 2 nuclear leaks in the past couple of years and the Scottish Ministries have no power to do anything about it, this is dynamite for the SNP.
Equally what will it do for Labour’s prospects in Plymouth if they are deserting Devonport?
47. Actually I’m kind of counting on the economy going even deeper, in order to shift the spending power on the markets towards the Labour inclined, and then them getting a ray of false hope. Maybe it will work, maybe not. Anyway just going to get my calculator out to check URW’s tip to see if I want to go for it (I’ll probably stay in waiting mode though).
44. stjohn. Right, it won’t necessarily be target seat 128, but I don’t think it will be very far away from it. There will be some unexpected gains and some unexpected losses.
48. On the recount front, if I understand it correctly this time, the timing of the announcement is not relevant. You just take the number of existing seats retained, and add the required number won from this list to find the “winner”. For example if they hold 190 of their existing seats, they need 136 from the list. If they don’t win 5 of them, the winner will be seat number 141…
13 (a) Brentford & Isleworth
(b) Ipswich
(c) Chorley
However, if it’s at all close in Sunderland Central, which will be one of the first to declare, then don’t bother to look at any of the above, because the Conservatives will have won a landslide.
49. Progressive taxation is not fair, it is not equitable. Both those who impose it and those that pay it are well aware of this. ‘Fair’ is the description used when telling those that aren’t paying it that somebody else is subsidising them. It helps them feel that such an arrangement is reasonable.
51.Easterross, just remind me which Westminster constituency Faslane is in?
13. stjohn: Which will be the first seat(s) on ukpolling reports list of Tory target seats that will trigger:
a) Tories being largest party?
b) A Tory overall majority?
c) A Tory landslide?
Well, it’s a very interesting question, not least because of the variables of the LD and Oth shares…
54 Actually, Chorley’s a bit more marginal than I thought. Something like Blackpool South is landslide territory.
A very damaging report on the Nuclear leaks at Faslane just concluded on Channel 4 News.
55 Christina I think it is now in Argyll but if not then Dunbartonshire West.
Jon Snow interviewing the soon to be ex Labour MP for Pymouth and Sutton. She is clearly worried and says calling for a meeting with the Minister
Harman is just as nuts as Brown:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5230604/Firms-bidding-for-Government-contracts-face-equality-quotas-signals-Harriet-Harman.html
So let’s get this right. So companies will be excluded from tendering or winning contracts because they don’t meet the right equality criteria. Now knowing the IT industry as I do there is no chance that any company could consistently fulfil the realistic quota requirements on gender. There are just not enough females coming into the industry (my guess is it is 70%:30% at best). Similarly, I assume the same is true the other way round in some social services, education and health areas (not that Harman will be bothered about that I’m sure).
It just makes an utter farce of it.
56. Is Faslane within Dumbarton with John McFall (Labour) MP?
50. ChristinaD. Perhaps some clarification is in order. When I say disproportionately, I do not mean that high rate taxpayers are paying more as a percentage of their disposable income than lower income people. As you say, Brown clobbered the poor. My point is if I am already paying my share of tax, and the share for 3 other people who sit at home on benefits watching telly all day, why would I be inclined to pay for another?
“We’ve got three-and-a-half million layabouts laying about on benefits, and I’m 76, getting up at 6am to go to work to keep them.”
But tax goes down by 10% when NI drops out.
61 She claims it will help businesses.
Truly, these people inhabit another mental universe.
Still no tim. I wonder if he’s in Pakistan, enjoying being snubbed with Gordon?
jsfl - just fill in the forms as if you do pass - no one will check!
60.Thanks Easterross, I wonder if this news is yet another sign of how worried the SLP are right now? Again, its clearly a tactical move which will cause clear dividing water between them and the SNP in particular.
Remember folks as I said the English numbers can be wide of the mark because the psephologists are estimating how the 2005 would have been on the new boundaries. The 2 Dumfries seats in Scotland in 2005 went in opposite directions from the estimate of the effect of the new boundaries.
53. Thanks that makes it a lot clearer.
62. http://news.scotsman.com/glasgow/Faslane-to-win-nuclear-order.2330770.jp
Looks as if Faslane lies within The new seat of Argyll and Bute.
65 - Well quite. It is an obsession with numerical equality rather than a more holistic view of what represents equality.
I was hoping for the othe main market, Extrabet, to put out revised numbers today but, alas, nothing.
Yes, IG/Extrabet has become a desparately disappointing operation - if you’re intent on running a spread-betting operation, the first priority is surely to keep your markets open.
Whatever people may think of Stuart Wheeler and his recent political antics, this would never have happened in his day - he always ran a very tight ship.
My guess is that IG Index is looking to dispose of their sports betting side, hence the change of name. The fact that they also decided to split my credit balance between their financial and sports divisions, although it’s notionally the same group, also points to such a split being in the offing. Bit of a bloody cheek, however, when as a result of their internal machinations, they then come after me for additional funds, when in fact my running profits had actually increased. I can’t say I enjoy betting with this firm.
One would think that in view of the likely explosion in the volume of political betting ahead of the next General Election as forecast by OGH, both they and Sporting would be making some effort to enliven their markets.
Perhaps I might make a suggestion in this regard - how about a spread on the number of Cabinet Ministers who will lose their present positions when Brown gets round to his reshuffle, mooted to take place during the second week in July. My guess would be a total of 6-7, including 2-3 outright sackings and 4-5 job swaps.
Alternatively perhaps Shadsy would oblige in showing them how it should be done.
66. EdP: Still no tim. I wonder if he’s in Pakistan, enjoying being snubbed with Gordon?
On an entirely unrelated note, a Five Live report about 45 minutes ago said there was a suspected swine flu case in Cheshire…
The woman on the BBC news channel at the moment is confusing me. She admits that women will if they take breaks in their career for kids and such fall behind….how can you measure that via the ‘discrimination’ they want to end?
48. jsfl. Correction. I should have said “McCain Firewall Finder”.
This was a Ladbrokes market during the US elections. You had to go down a list of states that shadsy had compiled and identify the first state, going down the list, that McCain would win. Not the first state to be declared for McCain but the first one in list order that he had won, once all the results were in. I think North Carolina carried it?
I backed Philadelphia; and lost! Hence my misremembering it as the Philadelphia Firewall.
Petition upto 7th place and 31 shy of 18k.
Remember when the Tories were 8/13 to get the most seats? I thought it was outstanding value then. Now they’re 1/7!
67. Indeed. But what’s the point? Just as I said it’s just planet venus posturing except when certain factions on the left want to play politics and then there will all sorts of ridiculous noises.
62.Ahh, John McFall!!!
63.Scott, the 50p rate was implemented because the public would happily accept it, and it was hopefully going to rattle the Tories where the initial policy of 45p had failed too. With this recession, there will be many unemployed for the first time in their lives, and they are not going to be seen as undeserving of some help.
62 No as I thought Faslane was moved into Argyll and Bute in 2005 which is a 3 way marginal LibDem incumbent, Tory second SNP third Labour out of sight
@75: It is interesting that the symptoms are far less severe outside of Mexico; I assume that it is following the normal pattern of infection for flu, where it becomes less virulent as it spreads.
On topic: I wonder if the spreads are moving too far, and too fast. Although I expect the Tories to maintain a significant lead from now through to the election, these seem like unusually rapid shifts away from Labour - certainly by comparison with last summer’s reaction to the polling.
78 So approx. 45,000,000 not signed it , a long way to go .
83, perhaps it’s because the polls are less volatile now than then.
The Tories are solidly above 40, the Labour party solidly below 32.
@84: Isn’t that what we call “a huge untapped opportunity”
46. I suspect Dundee West will be an easy SNP gain, but the Dundee count is often quite slow so I would not expect a result before 2am, possibly later. The additional complication with every marginal seat will be if any of the parties poll just below the 5% mark as they will want a recount fo deposit purposes. If the SNP took Glasgow North (which I am very doubtful about) for example the Conservative vote could drop to about that level for tactical reasons. Also the last time the Green’s also stood there and held their deposit - if they stand again I suspect they will slip to about 4% level so again may ask for a recount. Thus if we hear there is a recount it my not tell us much as it may not be between the two leading challangers for the seat.
84, I haven’t signed yet. I’m saving it for later, like a cadbury’s creme egg as a reward when I do something really well or get a horrid chore out of the way.
I should invest in the procurement of some creme eggs, now I come to think of it…
62 - Since 2005, with change of boundaries, it went to Argyll & Bute. The Dumbarton seat includes the old seat of West Dunbartonshire.
83 Probably still too pessimistic for the Conservatives (and optimistic for Labour) on current polling, so they could well move further.
54. Brentford & Isleworth, Ipswich and Chorley all have local council elections on 6th May 2010 and therefore are unlikely to declare early.
Perhaps Tim is El Gordo himself.
Cobra meeting in session chaired by Alan Johnson?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/04/27/55197/swine-flu-hits-the-uk/
Easteross - I may be mistaken but the plan to move all the submarines to Faslane has been known for a while. I’m pretty sure it’s been out to consultation in Scotland and Devon as many as five years ago.
OK, on stjohn’s point, using my projection charts:
Assuming the currently-projected LD and Oth shares (23.6% and 9.4% respectively), for Con depriving Labour of their majority, the Con gain with the smallest majority is Portsmouth North.
For Con to be largest party in a hung Parliament, Stevenage and Ealing Central & Acton.
For a Con majority, Lancashire West and Dagenham & Rainham.
A Con landslide would, to my mind, require the LDs to poll significantly below where I currently have them - if I reduce them to 20% the key seat for a Con landslide is Bristol East; at 18% it’s Blackpool South.
Not exactly the answer to your questions, but I hope of some interest.
@85: Maybe - but the last couple of polls, both by YouGov, represent a small but significant step change from the average pre-G20, and it is this to which the markets seem to be reacting.
84 I take it that you won’t be signing it.
There is, however, another petition, with 3 signatures, calling for Gordon Brown to remain as PM, which you’ll probably be happy to sign.
84 Give it time Mark, there are no limits to the loathing of the electorate for the great leader.
77. stjohn thanks that makes it clear.
93 Lancashire West and Chorley give a solid working majority. It’s Ipswich that gives a majority of one.
“bob roberts, the Petition Creator, joined by:
* aslong as it isn’t cameron the con
* john fisk
* Gordon Brown
* get stuffed, plus Brown’s never been a leader
* Ed Balls, Chancellor in Waiting
* Faux Cough”
5 Democrat representatives arrested by police in DC
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/04/27/us-lawmakers-arrested-in-darfur-protest-at-sudan-embassy/
They crossed a police line, knowing that they would be arrested.
The five are : Rep. John Lewis (D-Georgia), Jim McGovern (D-Massachusetts), Donna Edwards (D-Maryland), Keith Ellison (D-Minnesota), and Lynn Woolsey (D-California).
96 - Happy to sign? The wording of the petition isn’t sufficiently pro-Brown for Mark, Sean.
I wonder if Stephen Byers is going to defect!
Lovely Blue and Black Tie!
96 I am with the majority of the electorate and won’r be bothered to sign any petition . Apathy would rule if it could be bothered .
99. Sean Fear.
May I remind you, and everyone else, that an official majority of one in the new House is a mathematical impossibility unless there is a delayed election like South Staffordshire in 2005.
100 The Queen, Alisdair Campbell, and Tony Blair have signed the Resign petititon (the last may even be the real Tony Blair).
103. He’s enough of a careerist to. Can’t imagine why the Tories would want him though, except for the PR.
103 - Not a hope..
84. Mr Senior - you’re slipping - you could have used the population figures not the electorate figures………
Tried clicking the top LabourList article but got an error message.
Anyway, it’s promoting the notion of Ken Leavingsoon as an EU commissioner. A fitting combination of two vile political entities.
Com Res:
Cons 45 +5
Lab 26 -2
LD 17 -2
104 I agree Mark - petitions are a waste of time!
111 hahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!
First con gain = rotherham!!!!!!!!!
79 London Ricardo - unless I’m very much mistaken you haven’t been seen on PB for quite some time, a warm welcome back!
111 - Link?
111. Is that a confirmed result?
Oh, a COBRA meeting! Brown’s favourite! And he’s out of the country for it! Mwahahaha!
111: Really? Lib Dems ‘do nothing’ hardly working for them.
107. & 108. If he does walk - this will be one of the clues to his intention!
Defectors tend to voice disquite about an issue on a debate and then cross the floor.
111. great stuff…
41. Chris Strange - Interesting. I’m inclined to disagree, but only as gut reaction. I think the budget was the last throw of the dice. Barring truly unpredictable events, giving Brown another saviour moment, I think there is a slow realisation across the board that things are much worse than we thought, and are going to get even worse.
No one at the top of Labour, other than Brown and a tiny handful of fanatical loyalists, is even really trying any more. I don’t see any movement upwards for Labour, other than statistical noise.
112. Ave it 09 April 27th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
Yellow Taxi for Mr Clegg!
111 - Good good.
I can’t see anything on the Indys website?
Baxter gives C 418 L 173 LD 29 with these numbers
111. cheltboy.
Source?
111. Link?
Con +19 - never mind Gordo……
I also noticed the Guardian has got an article about the resign petition on it’s politics page. What has the world come to?
125
LDs back to Paddy Pantsdown levels
106. Sean Fear. The first is probably real.
@111: Well, it isn’t just YouGov. Although it is just YouGov and the ever-reliable ComRes
89 Hamish, it is actually the other way round. The new seat of West Dunbartonshire contains the landward bulk of the old Dumbarton seat plus Clydebank which had previously been with Milngavie but which I assume is now in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire. Helensburgh, Faslane and up towards Loch Lomond all went into Argyll so it was renamed Argyll and Clyde.
All a bit of a dog’s breakfast I would say though arguably many of these communities are now better linked. Helensburgh although only a few miles apart geographically are thousands of miles apart in socio economical terms
13/22 - I’m fairly certain that Sunderland is due to have local elections on May 6th 2010, and if that turns out to be election day then I think any chance Sunderland Central has of declaring first will be fairly limited. Having to seperate and sort the local and parliamentary ballots will take time.
For example in 1997, well before it became aparent there were only 12 votes in it, any hopes Torbay had of declaring first, or at least giving Sunderland South a run for its money, were scuppered due to the fact that they had to separate the county council ballots (Torbay was still part of Devon County Council in 97). I can remember from the BBC’s election coverage the reporter saying “everyone around here is upset” because of the delays.
How’s Rod Crosby’s swingback theory looking these days?
Another kick in the teeth for Gordo,
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/04/gordon-hands-mps-exes-conundrum-to-sir-chris.html
Oh sorry, bit slow,
MP attendance pay plan is shelved
The government has abandoned plans for a vote on scrapping MPs’ second homes allowance, it has announced.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8020332.stm
Wonder if we will get another YouTube classic explaining what happened to his great idea?
I’m still a Buyer of LD at 46.0 on the BF Line if any of you online heroes fancies a real bet.
87 Politicalhistorian you are perfectly correct which is why I went on to say it might be an unexpected and supposedly safe Labour Lanarkshire type seat.
115, 116 and others. I don’t post rubbish.
Wells on the YouGov London poll, with one detail that has escaped notice here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2108
YouGov asked who people would prefer in a contest between Boris and Sir Alan Sugar. This showed Sir Alan with a solid lead over Boris, 40% to 32%. It’s worth noting that it was presented as “Labour not fielding a candidate”, with the implication that Sir Alan was running as an Independent, rather than Sir Alan as the Labour candidate, which I suspect would have lead to rather different results.
[My emphasis.]
Here’s an interesting fact on Britains readiness to cope with Swine Flue.
Alan Johnson Health sec, speaking this afternoon:
……….He brought up the issue of face masks and said that the government was “Looking at how to increase face mask stockpiles for staff caring for people who are ill.” When questioned further, by Dr Evan Harris, he said “I wish we were further along with this. It is a situation that needs to be addressed quickly.”
In other words Britain hasn’t got enough face masks to cover the entire population.
What a discrace! even Mexico have these for those who need them, and today everyone does.
So what have they been doing with the NHS, this paragon of a medical service, these last 11 years?
Labour I sh*t ‘em.
137, I’m sure people are asking for links just as a matter of course, and also to read the accompanying article for further details.
137. cheltboy: I don’t post rubbish.
Then you should have no problem indicating where you got your information from.
We’ve been stung enough times by people making up figures.
Trying to get thiis on
Here’s an interesting fact on Britains readiness to cope with Swine Flue.
Alan Johnson Health sec, speaking this afternoon:
……….He brought up the issue of face masks and said that the government was “Looking at how to increase face mask stockpiles for staff caring for people who are ill.” When questioned further, by Dr Evan Harris, he said “I wish we were further along with this. It is a situation that needs to be addressed quickly.”
In other words Britain hasn’t got enough face masks to cover the entire population.
What a discrace! even Mexico have these for those who need them, and today everyone does.
So what have they been doing with the NHS, this paragon of a medical service, these last 11 years?
Labour I sh*t ‘em.
138: Ah yes, but would Sir Alan do better or worse connected with Labour? Difficult to say.
137 - Oh, I wasn’t accusing you posting rubbish, I was looking at the non voting questions in the poll. I’m just curious to see if we’re reaching the point of no return for Gordon Brown and for the Labour party to get rid of him.
Apologies if it appeared I was.
weathercock - if we had enough face masks, wouldn’t you think that Harman, Beckett, Smith et al would be wearing them already (as a public service)?
143. Slackbladder: would Sir Alan do better or worse connected with Labour?
Almost certainly worse. If there’s no Labour candidate, most Labour voters would vote for him anyway.
142. My PC is playing up. sorry for the double.
13. As discussed previously, no particular seat change in itself is required to predict or obtain a particular overall result, and most individual seats taken in isolation will be poor pointers to the overall result, unless of course it is an obvious wipeout.
Analysis of swing, even before a single seat changes hands, is much better.
Graph of the approximate number of declarations required, at 95% confidence, depending on how close the swing is to the critical thresholds, for a change at the election [i.e. for Labour to lose their majority, Tories become largest party, Tories have a majority]
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/95confidence.jpg
The BBC, IIRC, use a 99.5% confidence limit, combined with their prediction based on the exit poll.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/99.5confidence.jpg
So the critical thing is how close to an important threshold the swing actually is.
In 1997 and 2001, Labour were in landslide territory, and the broad picture could be confirmed after a handful of declarations. Similarly for the Tories in 1983 and 1987.
In 2005, despite a few jitters and wishful thinking, Labour were fairly confident of a majority after about 10 results.
In 1992 things went haywire, with the BBC seemingly unable to comprehend the actual results appearing before them - they had placed too much faith in the exit poll.
In 1964 and 1974 however, the result was so tight that it wasn’t settled until the following day (in part because of fewer overnight declarations then)
Next time will be interesting, and barring a Tory blowout, I predict a relatively long night. Say the Tories get a swing of about 5-6%, it will be quite difficult to determine whether they will have a majority or are even the largest party before about 100 declarations…
And the closer the swing is to either 4% or 7%, while it will be easier to rule out one of the above alternatives, it will be much much harder to confirm the remaining one.
I will try and produce a guide of things to look for prior to election night, and on election night will update the stats as they come in - although ideally I need a live feed. I think the PA provide one, which I’ll look into…
These poll figures are desperate to be going into the local and Euro elections with. Labour coming 4th is looking very possible.
77 st.john. It was Missouri. Obama won North Carolina.
111 is this the second poll with the Tory % higher than Labour and LibDems combined?
138. LS it wasn’t missed, I dissed the question on an earlier thread.
Whilst Wells does put the caveat in I really think credible commentators such as he (even if he works for Yougov) should steer clear of highlighting ‘pigs might fly’ style questions like that. They only damage the credibility of all those involved and polling in general.
To me it is nothing more than a question fabricated to create a headline. It is just Pravda style propaganda. If Yougov want to go down that route they will soon lose there credibility.
Ben Brogan is reporting that Stephen Byers was laying into the 50p tax-rate in the chamber on the budget debate just now. There was also a short clip on C4News of the same at about 35-40 mins in. Good sport.
150. Jack W. Thanks. I don’t think I’ve got anything right today! Head full of ideas though.
152. jsfl.
My apologies, in that case - I must have missed your post.
143 He’s committed to Labour, he’s a contributor and has done their PPBs - he couldn’t conveniently now pretend to be anything else.
155. LS - No apologies necessary….
;o)
148 Rod are you sure you are not Peter Snow’s love child?
105. Depends what you mean by official majority. If the 5 Shinners continue to abstain, the Tories could have an effective majority of one, while “officially” it was a hung parliament.
As I’ve requested before, this needs to be sorted with the bookies.
@158: The result of “just a bit of fun.”?
18261, 6th place, 2440 away from the top five.
If this poll figure is correct then it is dire for Labour but the LD’s are in DEEP DEEP DEEP Trouble! For them to go backwards like this against such a discredited government can only mean one thing! They are doomed - DOOMED to defeat and
Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock!
111. Labour are BAXTERED.
have we got the link to the Com Res poll yet?
156. Livingstone did
158. No, I’m waiting for him to retire, so I can apply for his job!
162 Martin go and lie down for half an hour in a dark room. We dont want you to get over excited prior to GE night just in case there is a need for some yellow taxis
What do these numbers mean for the Euros ?
159. RodCrosby.
By official majority, I mean seats minus all other parties’ seats combined.
Even if SF abstain at the start of the Parliament, they theoretically could choose not to do so at some point during its life.
And I will note that it is possible that the number of SF MPs elected will not be five.
Stjohn - no wonder you mucked up the firewall if you put down Philadelphia as a state.
If Labour do start consistently polling in the mid-20’s and the Tories pushing 50, does that trigger a collapse of the Brown regime (as even the likes of Roger throw up their hands in exasperation) and a quick early election? If not, what would it take?
If the poll is true about the poor numbers for the lib dems,then cleggovers been on tv to much.
NEW THREAD on ComRes.
@171: Now we’re in that territory they might as well hang on in the hope that something turns up to improve the situation; it can’t get much worse.
171 - Polls alone don’t affect politicians because no politician ever believes a poll!
170. I agree, but if the Tories win 323 seats (and SF 5) you can bet the commentators will call that a majority of one, which will be correct…
What will the bookies say to those who bet on a hung parliament? We need to know now!
Obama’s host dies from ‘flu-like symptoms’
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/obamas-host-dies-from-flulike-symptoms-1674743.html
169 Assuming the speaker is re-elected, then the Conservatives need 325 for a majority of 1.
I take Rod Crosby’s point about not placing too much importance on one seat, and these are really just illustrative.
111. PS, What’s fascinating by these polls is they show a weakening of LD support leaching to the Tories.
I was totally wrong when I thought Labour would drop by a notch or two after the Budget - they’ve dropped by 5. Much more. But I was right when I said that some LDs might now shift to the Tories just to make sure Labour lose, and lose big.
This is, I think, what is happening. Middle class voters attracted to the LDs but too fastidious to vote Tory are now thinking: “What the f*ck, Labour are a hideous nightmare of sleaze and ineptitude, let’s get rid, before they tax and spunk us all into oblivion, and come after my money too. I’m with Cammo.”
Such was the negative effect of that Budget, it is driving middle class centrists and centre lefties - towards the Tories.
Labour are down to the ethnic minorities, a residual white working class vote (which is crumbling), a few dozen teachers in Stoke Newington, and Bob in Galashiels who has a bad cough.
179,brilliant,lol
178. No, in a house of 650, 325 Tories would be a tie [meaning a arithmetic minority of one], relying on the Speaker’s casting vote.
325 Tories [less two deputy speakers] = 323
1 “Labour” Speaker
324 Opposition [less 1 more Opposition deputy Speaker] = 323
Voting strength
323 Government v 323 Opposition. A tie [meaning the Tories have one (in practice 2) fewer than a majority]
In practice, it doesn’t matter which side of the House the speaker come’s from, or whether he is in situ at the time of the election…
The Taleban takeover of Pakistan is not the fault of so-called ‘neocons’.
The Taliban are Pakistan’s proxy army. They have been arming and funding them for decades.
When they got kicked out of Afghanistan, the Taliban found a home and safehaven in Pakistan. Pakistan unleashed a golem and the golem came home.
From start to finish, this is Pakistan fault - if indeed a country can be at fault, rather than the ISI or President Zia.