Is Hammond being lined up as Tory chancellor?
April 24th, 2009
Would he be a better face for the coming spending cuts?
This afternoon I reinvested a small part of my budget winnings with two bets on the post of chancellor. The wagers are linked and both offer, I believe, good value for money.
My first was to take the 9/2 from William Hill Politics that Alastair Darling will be replaced as chancellor during 2009. These seem great odds and, effectively, also give you coverage should there, indeed, be a 2009 general election. Whatever the outcome of that it’s hard to see Darling still in his job.
The second bet has been at a tasty 33/1 that the Tory treasury number 2, Philip Hammond, will be the next chancellor. Surely that’s going to be George Osborne I can see you thinking. Yep - possibly but just think for a minute of the role for the chancellor in the likely incoming Tory government.
For the Tories will inherit the need for public expenditure cuts on a scale that has not been seen for decades. The chancellor will be the public face of the inevitable squeeze and the state school educated Hammond who had a considerable career in private industry before entering politics might be better positioned than Osborne
Have you noticed how in the past few days it’s been Hammond who has been presenting the Tory case on many of the key TV programmes. I thought he did really well on Question Time last night. He has a nice manner and comes over as someone who is reasonable and caring in a way that Osborne does not. His age, he’s 52, gives him the maturity that eludes the 37 year old George.
Cameron will, I’m sure, find a key role for Osborne but chancellor might not be the best position for him in the current climate.
So the Darling bet more than covers the Hammond bet in the event of Brown replacing him this year. Hammond becomes my choice for the Tories.
The Ladbrokes 33/1 is not going to last long.
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first
wow i’m mostly a lurker…i’m so happy
Trying hard!
Trying hard!
gold, silver and bronze
ah dammit
Apologies for the double post.
He was very good on Question Time and wouldn’t make a bad Chancellor, but I don’t see Cameron demoting his George.
I would say not. But at those odds its worth a punt.
Interesting bet, Mike. Don’t see it being at all likely given that Cameron/Osborne are effectively a team but an interesting thought.
Dunno about this one Mike? Surely Hammond is out there because it is Cooper defending the budget (as Darling has run away to the US).
Basically, Cooper is far to junior to be trying to have a debate with Osborne ( i.e. soon to be Labour opposition backbencher vs future Chancellor of the Exchequer).
to=too
I think Clarke and Hammond [who incidentally warned about all the dangers of the tripartite system] are being lined up to show depth.
I was going to post along the lines of no, because Cameron and Osborne are like Blair, and Brown were in about 1996.
Sh1t, look how that has ended up.
“No more boom and bust”
It would be good for the Tories if Cameron did move Osborne though, because the polls are quite clear that George Osborne remains the weak link in the Tory team.
GRRR new thread I am reposting this…
PENSION TENSION
OK everyone. Lets consider the example of a 45 year old senior manager on £120k a year pensionable. He is on a 60ths final salary scheme, the cost of which is about 25% pensionable pay (doesnt matter whether he or his employer pays the contributions).
In a typical year he/his company does well and he gets a £30k bonus. Total pay £150k.
Now the next year he does very well (eg delivers a major project) or his company does very well (lots of Corporation tax…) and he gets a bonus of £60k.
An extra £30,000. What does he keep of that?
Firstly its 50% x £30,000 income tax = £15,000.
OOOOOH there’s a little extra to pay - its £120,000 x 25% = £30,000 ie the cost of the pension x 30% NOT 20% = £9,000.
So thats £15,000 + £9,000 = £24,000.
OOOOOH thats £6,000 left for him. (Cant be bothered with the NI!)
80% marginal rate THANKS LABOUR!!!!
Anthony Wells on the latest Scottish YouGov poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2104/comment-page-1#comment-575045
Note: there is a classic Mark Senior Moment in the thread, for all you members of the Mark Senior Fanclub.
Hammond has really been improving over the last 2 or 3 months. I’ve been seeing him on TV almost as much as Vince Cable. I suspect he will get promoted fast in a Cameron government.
But I think the Cameron/Osborne team is just too strong for Hammond to be the first chancellor. They have essentially grown up together as political friends, unlike Blair/Brown who matured as enemies.
On a purely superficial note, Hammond really must start to control his blinking rate… it’s absolutely crazy!
Maybe William Hague will end up doing it.
Why Not have Howard Flight as Cheif Sec. to the treasury from the Lords?
Mike - actually its a strong call…
Osborne has been a little wishy washy about reversing tax cuts!
We need a street person such as HAMMO (never heard of him before) to slash the tax and slash the state!!!
(But we still love OSBO though…)
15 - Lol.
The weak link in the team 20% ahead in the polls. So without Osborne, what would it be GIN? 30%.
Lol
At the risk of contradicting myself, I suppose if he harbours any hope of being leader, this sort of start would not bode well.
Hammond has got significantly better recently, but he is still too removed and distant. He doesn’t engage, rather he lurks around the edge of the debate.
We are going to need the mightiest intellects in the land to get us out of this hole. Whilst Osborne still has a way to go in his own personal engagement with the viewer, his political strategic and tactical skills have been demonstrated to be spot on.
Hammond has a lean and hungry look. I think David Starkey looked so reliable in his tweeds and tortoiseshell glasses. Hammond is just an older version of Osborne, but Starkey suggests stability, and old fashioned dependability. I could see him sending certain people off to the Tower!
8 - I think Cameron is ruthless enough to do it. I think if he is thinking of having someone else other than George Osborne as Chancellor then he needs to shuffle them in before the next election. I think it would be impossible to move Osborne to a job of less note than his current one so for me the only other potential next Chancellor other than Osborne would be Hague as I suspect that Cameron could get way with a two-way switch of those two. I don’t think it is likely though especially as Osborne recently has been ever more impressive, and his TV budget response was absolutely pitch perfect.
17 HAHAHAHAHAHAHA brilliant!
TY Stuart
checking out
Shock!! Horror!! Pravda reports a voting intention poll that does not show Labour in a positive light:
According to The Herald, public support for the SNP is soaring on the eve of the second anniversary of the party’s rise to power in Scotland.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7934174.stm
17. I’ve given up debating with Marks “real votes by real people” theory. I figure the elections on June 4th will quiet Mr S down for a few months just as happened last year.
17 A Mark Senior sighting, eh? I wonder why he hasn’t his face here today?
@25 (James Burdett)
I wasn’t impressed with Osborne’s budget response (I mean the 5 minute TV version). It just didn’t seem to connect, and seemed a little patronizing. He just isn’t a natural empathizer.
I was mightily impressed with his budget response in the Commons. And he is very clever tactically and strategically.
I think he’ll be a decent chancellor and really, Cameron will take the brunt of having to explain the pain.
Looking at his CV, he’s had real jobs (despite a PPE from Oxford). Medical equipment, manufacturing, housing, oil…
Be a shrewd move to position him as a replacement for Clarkie boy - who, don’t forget, isn’t getting any younger.
17,mark senior told pb that he had a busy working life,thats why he was’nt seen has much on pb betting,my god I have seen mr senior all over the internet,going on now I see ,about how the lib dems have won two council seats,god get a life.
30 - To be fair, he has (on the previous thread) and promised to honour his bet with you albeit with characteristic gracelessness.
32. They should make Ken Clarke do the Chancellour job and then retire him!
30 MM. Mark posted toward the back end of the last thread conceding your bet.
Mark Senior will be back when his beloved Labour are doing better.
30 are you ready for blackpool tomorrow?
Mike S you are wasting money. Osborne can’t wait to get in the Treasury. The job would have to be wrenched out of his cold dead hands. And still he wouldn’t let go.
16 But all your taxes are going to help single mums.
It’s called taxation with a purpose.
21. However in the poll that gives the Conservatives an 18% lead Osborne scores no better than Darling on who will make the best Chancellor;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/5209960/David-Cameron-gets-Budget-bounce.html
I’m not saying George Osborne is a disaster or that he will cost the Conservatives the election, but there no doubt the public doubts his ability.
40
Labour = VALUE!!!
Whats the odds on PMdave kicking off his premiership with a 15% pay cut for the whole of the commons before launching a 5 years freeze on public spending just like they did in eire.
Totally off topic, assuming the Tories win the election, to get rid of Labour’s majority in the House of Lords, am I right in thinking Cameron will have to propose a lot of Life peers to get rid of the Labour’s majority.
Are there any betting markets out there, that allows you to bet on who could become a peer.
39 If Cameron decides someone else would be better, that someone will get the job.
I have long thought that Osborne would be better in a position like Party Chairman, because he’s a good long term strategist, rather than a post like Chancellor.
31 - What didn’t impress you? I don’t know how it could have been better, it was sober, and he kept it on a level. I don’t think he needs to empathise, he needs to be somewhat detatched as Chancellor. Cameron needs to empathise but he needs a ‘brains’ behind him. Osborne is that and is getting better at being sober and serious as we get closer to an election.
I will declare that I’ve always been an Osborne fan, principally because I’ve looked at the bigger picture. I think that the ConHome numpties who have wanted him to announce every tax cut half hour after he accepted the job are frankly ludicrous. Osborne has played it extremely well, and has shown remarkable political maturity in making his tax pronouncements count. He is 20 times more economically aware than many people give him credit for and will make an excellent Chancellor.
Martin, a new picture for your blog from this Telegraph spoof, which is also worth a look
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/5216102/We-cannae-take-it-the-UKS-Treasury-boldly-goes-deeper-and-deeper-into-the-red.html
I thought Hammond was pretty decent on QT last night. Unlike the boy Osborne, Hammond has that steadying air of 1950’s bank manager and politically the calm assurance of a Baldwineque figure.
44 Yes. He will have to reform [ie boot out] or bring in.
On the other hand it could be Boris, he’s obviously eyeing up his chances for a return to the HofP.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23680398-details/London+Tories+look+to+a+future+without+Boris/article.do
17 And an amusing riposte from Stuart Dickson. Some “real votes” are more real than others, it would seem.
44/49 - Can that reform to the HoL happen quickly enough? Do the Tories know what their approach is going to be?
Wouldn’t a more reasonable approach be to rescind all life peerages awarded since 1997 and start from as close to a pre-Labour-caused mess as possible?
43 yes its been quite aggressive in Ireland!
I filled in a 2009 supplementary budget v original budget spreadsheet for ireland and would have lost Euro 500 a month on my salary!
Ooops bit like here then THANKS LABOUR!!!
48 yes its the Jack W approval - Mike’s money is good!
44 habib butt. Labour does not have a majority in the House of Lords. They make up around 215 of the 742 members.
I think Osborne knows in his heart of hearts he would never ever make Prime Minister. Although he is nowhere near as awful as the smiler, a modern PM has to look and sound the part. The lack of ambition and total loyalty to the Cameroon project might make life far easier for Cameron than it would otherwise have been.
Osborne is as vital to Cameron as Campbell was to Blair, or Balls is to Brown.
52 - I haven’t got a clue. It’s just something that’s making me think, could Labour’s men and women in the HoL cause Cameron some real headaches.
My choice would be for a 100% directly elected 2nd chamber.
I would say the last chance Cameron had to transfer or demote Osborne would have been in a reshuffle last May after Labour’s bloodbath in the locals and London, and if not then directly after Brown botched the election that never was in Autumn 2007.
In both circumstances Labour had taken a big hit and Cameron had enough political capital to spend to have a reshuffle.
Having said that, there’s no indication that Cameron wants, or has wanted, to get rid of Osborne.
If the Conservatives form a majority Government, then I fully expect George Osborne to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer.
47. Scott P April 24th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
Maybe I should do one of Gordon Brown being beemed up but he is on the toilet!
54 - Composition is
Labour 216
Conservative 197
Lib Dem 72
UKIP 2
Crossbenchers 205
Bishops 26
Others 13
Total 731
53 Ave it. Normally punters have to kiss hands to gain my approval …. but I rescinded that stipulation when Peter the Puntress took absolute liberties !!!!!
45 party chairman is a joke position, compared with a proper senior cabinet job, it would be seen as an insult.
52. No. I don’t know what the position of rescinding is legally but once the precedent of rescinding honours bestowed by a past governments then a whole can of worms gets opened and it becomes a mess.
55. I don’t think you can write off Osborne as a future PM. A 38 year old Osborne might be a very differant character to a 48 year old Osborne. For better or worse Ossie will be Chancellor. It will either make or break him, but it won’t not change him.
54/59 - Thanks for that. Clearly I was wrong, I just heard on the radio, about the number of Labour peers created since 1997.
47/58 The only problem I have with that Telegraph spoof is that it seems to make Ed Balls out to be the sensible one and we all know that certainly isn’t the case in reality.
@46 (James Burdett)
I can’t exactly remember, it was probably on yesterday evening’s thread, but I generally don’t think he is good in the soft speech format.
He is excellent in the Commons, knows his economics well, and is great at political positioning and timing. He has improved vastly in the media. But…
number 10 petition for our gordon to resign,over 3 thousand now,tim will your name be on it ?
[from previous thread]
“However, it is one of the examples of the various paradoxes Rod came up with. I just can’t remember which one.”
I’m not sure exactly which election or assertion of mine you are referring to.
For choosing a single winner, AV is pretty good, and arguably the best of the preference-ranking methods. The only significant test that it fails is monotonicity, although it can be shown this happens very rarely.
However, it would be pretty disastrous if under an AV election this dreaded scenario was announced:-
“President Smith has failed in his re-election bid. The only way that yesterday’s election differed from the one that elected Smith is that some people who’d previously ranked Jones in first place, this time ranked Jones in LAST place. President-elect Jones gave his acceptance speech at 1:00 a.m., Eastern Time.”
60 Jack W as you are 106(k) does that mean you lose half your personal allowance?!
Mike - if Osborne was moved, he’d have to take another heavyweight post, and maybe even a super-department such as Prescott had.
I suppose the options, in what I’d consider to be a reasonable order of likelihood, are
(1) Foreign secretary, perhaps with DFID thrown in. Move Hague to the Home Office, Justice, or perhaps somewhere where spending cuts are needed.
(2) Deputy PM with a roving brief on the home front - think Herbert Morrison (Lord President of the Council) under Attlee.
(3) Business/industry. Not an area best suited to Osborne’s talents, I think.
(4) Justice, with responsibility for constitutional reform, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Again, not really Osborne’s forte I think.
(5) Party chairmanship - effectively a demotion.
I can’t really think of anywhere else Osborne might usefully go. (1) and (2) are possible but the paucity of options for moving Osborne at this late stage inclines me to think Cameron will keep him in place. Sorry Mike.
As a matter of interest - when was the last time an incoming PM didn’t appoint his shadow chancellor as chancellor? I should be able to remember, but don’t.
56. There is the possibility to kill two birds with one stone. Give the Lords more power and allocate based on PR. I’ve no idea what the LD official policy is on that idea (if we have one) but I can see it happening and would be in favour of the idea.
Line Betting
Betfair - Next General Election - Party Seats Line
Con 352.5 - 358
Lab 216 - 219
LD 46 - 48.5
SNP 13.5 - 14.5
PC 3.5 - 4.5
DUP 5.5 - 7.5
411 previous thread
Mark, thank you for confirming that our bet will be honoured. I never doubted it for a minute.
Do you intend to make the cash payment direct to the Awsworth Dog Rescue? (see post 266, two threads back)?
Babbington Rescue
Westby Lane,
Awsworth,
Notts,
NG16 2SS
61 But it shouldn’t be an insult. It ought to be regarded as a crucially important position.
I’d go for it like a shot if someone offered it to me. Far more interesting than having to run a department.
70. Random guess, Churchill in WWII.
62 Fair point, corporeal. Just wishful thinking really.
With hindsight, it’s clear that this Labour government has never had legitimacy. Certainly not since 2005 when they bluffed their way to power on manifesto promises they knew in advance they would break - Europe and taxes being the two key issues.
The replacement of Blair with Brown without a formal election in the Labour party merely made the situation even more untenable for them.
66 - I don’t think that he necessarily has to be that good, at the end of the day many people won’t have seen the Budget Response. I think that at the end of the day he is good at what he needs to be good at, and that is all that matters.
75. Sorry, I mean an incoming PM who had a shadow chancellor in his party.
69 Ave it. I lost my personal allowance long ago when Mrs Jack W caught me with a eighteen year old go-go dancer called Glenda !!
62 corporeal. A peerage cannot be rescinded unless by the Sovereign under the Treason Act.
79
‘Mark Senior will be back when his beloved Labour are doing better.’
He’ll have popped his clogs by then.
Hammond as the next CotE? I very much doubt it. I saw him on Newsnight a couple of nights ago and, unlike OGH, I wasn’t impressed, finding him…..well frankly rather dull.
However, Mike is so bloody good at this type of bet that I’ve dragged myself off to Ladbrokes, kicking and screaming, to invest a fiver. Well I reckoned that’s only just over the cost of a pint of Peroni in the Spotted Horse on Putney High Street, so what the hell.
73 MM - I note even as Mark was bravely conceding, he was having a pop at our lovely Martin! BOO!!
81.
Hey we shouldn’t mock.
His stamps will be worth more than our cash when we are all reduced to bartering.
As to the Mark ‘recessions never happen with a Labour government’ Senior bet it’s interesting that he’s managed to pick the 6 months bigest fall in GDP since and possibly including the Great Depression.
Are there any other Mark Senior predictions that we can use as a contra-indicator?
41 GIN - Fortunately, 45% of the population have enough confidence in the Cameron team to be willing to elect them. I would say that is probably enough.
Hammond might be better over at Work and Pensions
That is going to need a lot of heavyweight reform and Theresa isn’t the one to do that
Word to the wise for Iain Gray: when in a hole, stop digging
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2503944.0.Word_to_the_wise_for_Iain_Gray_when_in_a_hole_stop_digging.php
76. You’re going overboard. You can’t point to a government that won three consecutive GEs and say ‘they never had any legitimacy’. It’s a silly stance.
Sean Fear Re 45:
I have long thought that Osborne would be better in a position like Party Chairman, because he’s a good long term strategist, rather than a post like Chancellor.
And you don’t think we will need someone with a good long term strategy to get the economy right?
I don’t know Hammond’s views very well. Is he a Cameroon or a Hannanite?
EDIT: and how senior is Chief Secretary to the Treasury, compared with other second-tier Cabinet postings? I reckon given the economic crisis it’s roughly as important as SecState for Defence or Transport.
Before Geoffrey Howe became COE, he was boring, his speeches were terrible: his TV manner was awful.
Not much changed in power: “being savaged by a dead sheep”.
Yet of all Conservative Chancellors he inherited the worst position (post Healey) and it could be argued did best.
Who cares how any COE comes over IF he/she is competent?
Darling clearly is not.
Brian Taylor, BBC Scotland’s political editor:
‘Courageous stuff’
I expect you are all huge fans of “Yes Minister”. Do you recall the episode when Sir Humphrey characterises a ministerial decision as “courageous”?
Does that mean, asks the eager Hacker, that it is a good and wise decision? There follows a solemn shake of the mandarin head.
Iain Gray was in “courageous” mood at first minister’s questions today.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2009/04/courageous_stuff.html
82,yes I saw that,was that when old vince the mouth cable woke to have a go at hammond,egged on by paxman.
85 “it’s interesting that [Mark Senior’s] managed to pick the 6 months biggest fall in GDP since and possibly including the Great Depression”
He didn’t pick them.
I did
What the english think of the Scots
http://subrosa-blonde.blogspot.com/
85 ‘Are there any other Mark Senior predictions that we can use as a contra-indicator?’
Just ‘Lib dems winning here’.
90 I mean that I think his strategic skills are political, rather than administrative.
Hammond as CofExq amd Michael Fallon as chief sec to the treasury
Ozzie at Justice
MM
But he still bet that they wouldn’t show declines.
When was the bet taken out by the way?
I don’t think Hammond will be the next chancellor, but I’m on anyway. Betting against OGH has not made me rich
one man who I think should be brought back to the shadow cabinet is david davis,heavyweight.
SallyC - Just ‘Lib dems winning here’.
Especially as regards Ossett.
I see many Conservatives posters already measuring the curtains !!
One man who should not be brought back into the Shadow Cabinet is David Davis, bighead.
Gideon is a vote loser. He looks and sounds like the worst stereotype of a Tory. Getting rid would be a masterstroke
100 The bet was c. June/July of last year.
To be fair to Mark S, the bet was that there wouldn’t be negative growth in both quarters - he might have felt there would be a blip into negative territory, but not two consecutive quarters.
I actually bottled going for Q3 and Q4 2008 because I thought the downturn might not have kicked in to full effect before Q4.
I still like to think of it as one of the classier side bets in pb.com history. Next time, maybe I’ll wager 1,000 guineas?
104
and on the phone to Pickfords…
On Topic.
NO.
102. “David Davis, heavyweight”
Oh, yeah. The David Davis who wasted 100k of taxpayers money in a by-election, to prove he could beat Mad-Cow Girl and David Icke….
103 creeping nearer and nearer to Ed.
Following on from the last Not the Nine oClock News clip….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVGFh5bnB7I
David Davis can’t really be brought into the Shadow Cabinet - not because he couldn’t play a good part there, but simply because there’s nowhere for him to go.
Shadow Chancellor, Shadow Foreign Secretary, Shadow Home Secretary are all filled up. The people currently in those roles have grown into them very well - especially Grayling, who has improved markedly.
Anything less senior would be seen as an insult by the Davis faction (Iain Dale et al).
I think Davis could be one of the most outspoken contrarians in a future Conservative government - in the same way that Charles Clarke is now. I don’t think Boris has a “faction” or a “powerbase”, but if he continues to oppose Cameroon policies when they are in government, he could well develop one. David Davis and Boris Johnson are the most dangerous internal opponents for Cameron at the moment.
OT does anyone else find Justine Greening on question time embarrassingly inadequate? Wooden, ill informed, trying to relay an imperfectly understood party line, and has indirectly elicited really warm applause for Alistair Darling for doing a difficult job, which today of all days takes some doing. Her synthetic indignation on behalf of the Gurkhas is particularly toe curling.
104. There is a little sense of hubris coming in. It may not come to fruition but it’s there.
105,or come on sally,the man is brilliant explaining things and getting is point across with the media,just what the tories need coming up to a general election.
98. Sean Fear.
Perhaps but given the next two, perhaps three general elections will be decided by the economic considerations perhaps Osborne or another political strategist needs to be the Chancellor. As long as he has a strong economic team around him perhaps a strong strategic politician is what is needed.
After all would a political strategist believe the nonsense that Brown and Darling would actually be swallowed by the piblic and the media?
Whilst there are still quite a few rough edges about him, he has the potential to be a far more potent politician than either the great flunking cyst or his successor in the Treasury.
Brown’s latest pension attack is going to be a real issue as people start to understand the implications. The reduction of relief to 20% is going to kill money purchase schemes for millions of tax payers and th removal of employer relief will kill off all remaining final salary schemes.
As with Brown’s first destruction raid in 97 he’s banking on nobody really understanding the implications.
In simple term’s, Brown doesn’t want anybody to save for their old age. If you can afford to save, he wants your money in taxes to pay off all the debt he’s created.
He’s alright. He’s got a gold plated tax payer funded final salary scheme.
MM
So when the bet was made we were as it turned out already in recession!
As Mark Senior says he has his own business I would have thought he would be more aware of the general economy. Certainly manufacturing output began falling last March and the banks were already looking very shakey.
Sounds like a case of letting his heart rule his head.
Give D. Davies the responsibility of drafting, consulting on and proposing a new Bill of Rights and tidying up the mish-mash that is the Constitution.
He’d enjoy it and I suspect might make a good job of it.
104 No.
We are measuring up for Labour’s coffin.
We will get the old curtains we used last time down from the attic.
110,principle’s
115 He’s an ar8e.
We need 3 more players for the latest Political Betting diplomacy game!
If any one wants to join email me at walkley@waitrose.com
BtW if you need an ISP Waitrose have a free (0800) help desk that is very helpful and give their profits (£192k, I think last year, to charity)
122. What’s that got to do with anything? This is government we’re talking about here, not the Band of Hope.
30 I was on here earlier MM , you clearly did not read all the posts today .
Reminder: HIGNFY is back at 9.
This week we have seen Darling Alistair use a photocopy of Dennis Healey’s budget of 1974, to which he has added a long line of noughts to the debt figures. Is it just me, or is the similarity between these two more than just having problem eyebrows? Famously, Dennis Healey once said he intended to “tax the rich until they squealed”. Darling has not of course done this; it is apparent however, he intends to make an awful lot of people squeal.
One could summarise both of these budgets as huge increases to government borrowing, some dodgy forecasts, and a politically motivated increase in tax for higher earners. If one were less generous, perhaps it might be described as arithmetically barmy, economically damaging, unnecessarily burdensome, hugely complex and politically cynical. A particular bit of typical political nonsense was the suggestion that increases to income tax for higher earners will only effect 2% of the population.
…
So to translate the Chancellors speech of 7,400 words into 110 words:
“We’ve messed it up but are doing all we can to get back to a growth fuelled by personal and national debt.
We’ve reduced the amount of money high earners invest so they cannot buy the gilts we are trying to sell.
We’ve made sure there will be less investment in industry.
We won’t be here to sort out the mess.
M.P.s will still have £24,000 per annum tax free allowances if they live more than 20 miles from the office plus a state contribution to their pension of around £21,000 per annum.
I commend this budget to the house and has anybody got a pocket calculator I can borrow?”
http://www.aboutmyarea.co.uk/Cheshire/Neston/CH64/Business-and-Personal-Finance/Finance-Blogs/130440-Finance-blog:-A-Retro-Budget
105
No, he’s a man with more principle than the rest of the Tory party put together.
The fact that you can’t see that shows how pernicious and corrupting party loyalty really is.
125 Mark, must have been when I’d taken the dog for a walk - there have been some 1500 posts already today!
126 Well remembered.
I am off for a glass of vino and a giggle.
Wish I hadn’t missed Denham on QT.
Sounded like it was a hoot.
FPT:
Is there really nothing worth watching on the telly tonight?
On the contrary, Stuart, there are two absolutely brilliant new series on BBC 1 - Have I Got News For You (plenty of material to cram in there), followed by the wonderful Reggie Perrin, starring Martin Clunes.
So, if you’d kindly excuse me for the next hour or so.
Ha! When I touted Hammond as Chancellor earlier this week, I sung his praises. Everybody ignored me. Trying to find the correct thread now…
I don’t bet. Shame.
112, this is also applicable to the present day:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9h16gbCHBsY
105. How you dare assume you know why I don’t like him. You haven’t got the foggiest idea.
You are right in that I am a loyalist and as such it takes a lot to dis a Tory.
Just remember where I live and use your imagination [ie brain] instead of being so one dimensional.
“Whilst there are still quite a few rough edges about him, he has the potential to be a far more potent politician than either the great flunking cyst or his successor in the Treasury”
I daresay, but that’s probably true of 80%+ of the population.
130, check the iPlayer:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00jzm7c/Question_Time_23_04_2009/
Starkey’s great entertainment.
134
Loyalty before principles.
Sums it up really.
Given that (as far as I remember) our Scottish Tory and SNP contributors seem to be predicting a Lib Dem wipeout would any care for a little line bet on SLD seats?
132, I disagree with you and His Mikeliness. Hammond has improved, but Osborne is integral, and, I think, seriously and continually underrated. His media performances can be less than perfect but he’s strategically astute.
With Hammond and Clarke rounding off the economic team it’s far better than Darling, Cooper and Mandelson. Man for man the Tories are better.
Never mind all this betting melarky.
That sod Hammond in the picture is wearing a wig. Look if you don`t believe me.
136. Great. I will watch it after HIGNFY.
Thanks.
My pernicious party loyalty and I will really enjoy it.
131. Peter, you can watch the BBC live on iplayer.
I think Mr S that you are desperate - running out of plausible bets and topics for posts.
There are a lot of daydreamers on this thread.
140, np, delightful Sally. I too am off to watch HIGNFY.
132 SBS - Just like me, no one took any notice a couple of days ago when I suggested Darling’s departure as Chancellor during 2009 on offer from Hills at 9/2 - a cracker IMHO. Perhaps, however, Mike took note as he’s featured this bet in tonight’s thread.
134 You are still being a bit of a numpty.
It’s because my loyalty has limits that I don’t like him.
The biggest shocks are rarely forecast. The Libdems wil be the next official opposition. My bet looks better and better.
144 - http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/04/22/is-gords-expense-plan-going-to-make-it-worse/
posts -76/84 - fyi. I have sung his praises before.
132 is that a new blog?
New opening has Obama spinning a basketball with a halo.
Pity HIGNFY starts with unamusing tw@t Frank Skinner hosting
145
I have long followed your posts about DD and it is clear that you simply couldn’t stand anyone who you perceived to be putting the success of the Tory party at risk no matter what the principles at stake.
It is one of the great failings of our system that it produces so many party loyalists who fail to differentiate between the good of their own particular party and the good of the country.
Not in the least.
Alan Duncan again.
Hunky Dunky!
125 and in your usual pompous and totally artless manner you still haven’t either admitted just how totally and utterly you got it wrong or even had the decency to say whether you would be sending the money to the charity or not - I’m pretty sure you can’t be as mean spirited as you come across but i sometimes have my doubts -
for someone who’s opinions are actually sometimes worth taking notice of your lack any of the normal social graces is surprising.
I think David Davis should be given something like Chairman of Home Affairs Select Committee
He can then cause lots of mischief examining the Home Office from 1997-2010
150. If Alan Duncan does his Tony Blair impression I’m organising a campaign to stop him ever doing it again.
Why is my comment in moderation. Is it the word `wig`
Duncan scamming expenses. Getting needled by Hislop.
Re Davis. Grayling is better than Grieve for the role but watching his performance against Smith this week he has a lot to learn and I’m not convinced he is the man to deal with the poisoned chalice of the Home Office.
Davis is by far the best fit but firstly he has to pay his dues for his display of principle and secondly Cameron needs to keep a few cards up his sleeve. My guess would be that won’t see Davis back until the middle of a first term at the earliest.
Another consideration is that Cameron might need an old hand elsewhere if he has back benches full of newbies to keep control of when times get tough. David Davis of course was a whip during the troubled times of the Major years. Another consideration perhaps?
Or perhaps Leader of the House with Alan Duncan moving on or even back to Enterprise at some point? In both cases it would be a deal with future promotion a possibility in due course.
139 - I agree, MD. Some consider the Cameron/Osborne friendship to be a weakness; I consider it a strength. I have no doubt that if Osborne did something horrific he would go, but what a good position to be in as a leader to have one of your best mates in a position where trust between the two roles is vital. Far better than the mortal enemy pairing we’ve had for 10 years.
Haha, they’re showing Gordon’s gurning. What a loon.
Interesting thread but it’s not going to happen. Osborne is nailed on to be CofE in a Cameron Government. Good call upthread by someone suggesting Hammond might go to Work and Pensions. That will be a key post in the next Government and will need to work closely with the Chancellor.
160. I need a lobotomy after seeing that.
55. Whilst I agree that Cameron and Osborne are virtually joined at the hip I feel that it is in a positive way as opposed to the negative vileness of Campbell and Balls/Brown. I remain neutral on Blair even though he is the principal architect of our current, and ever worsening, dire situation.
35. Your suggestion of making Clarke the Shadow COE, and then following the Conservative victory, actual Chancellor is an attractive one. Would this “seal the deal” with the electorate? He would be positioned as the man who saved the country once and therefore ideal to do it again.
Personally, I feel he is now too old to connect with a lot of voters but I feel we will soon be looking for an economic Messiah and he could fit the bill. Osborne is a great talent but he just doesn’t have the presentational gravitas and authority the situation demands.
Hunky Dunky really as to stop being ‘fresh’ on HIGNFY - its amusing if its NOT an MP saying we are going to be like Zimbabwe or ‘we’ll just stick a couple of 0s on our salary’
164 - to an extent. Though Duncan is so fruity he can actually get away with it more than most.
165 yeah the silence from the studio audience should ahve given away that they weren’t terribly amused.
I dunno, he seems fabulous in parliament, he is a total idiot on HIGNFY usually
In 10 Downing Street, Gordon Brown emerges from the Bunker for half an hour’s light relief, to watch HIGNFY…
…and returns to the Bunker three minutes later. Having left a trail of destruction in his angry wake…
I agree Mike, Hammond would be a better chancellor than Osborne. For some reason I don’t know what it is, I can’t put my finger on it, Osborne is not easy to like. He’s a good politician but there are too many negatives and I cannot see people accepting what’s going to have to happen with the economy. Also if Osborne carries out savage cuts to public services there no way he’ll ever have a chance of becoming PM, after Cameron.
I can’t wait until Labour get crushed at the next election coz there is gonna be a knock down drag out fight for the heart and soul of the Labour party. It’s gonna be nasty but great viewing!
166. He thinks he’s funnier than he is. It’s a shame because he is quite funny, just goes overboard.
169 - yeah, he actually just came out with a good one about the right to bear arms - more natural, more the hunky dunk we love from parliament. He was on fire this week in leader of the house qs
I wouldn’t bet on Hammond for next COFE at 100-1. As jsfl said as long ago as post 11 he’ll have been on TV when Cooper was up for the Gov’t. Whilst TV watchers might see Osborne and Hammond as relatively interchangeable, Hammond is nowhere in the pecking order compared with Osborne’s position at the heart of the Tory machine - PMQs prep (every week), daily tactics, weekly strategy and no doubt manifesto drafting and General Election Strategy.
There’s a reason for this. Osborne is one of the most talented politicians of his generation. In time I may go further than this, but it is too early to say. Hammond is no more than competent.
FT starts to take aim at Brown:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3f129b08-3104-11de-8196-00144feabdc0.html
170. And then he drops a clanger about Miss California.
Mike’s filter seems to be blocking my post, so I will just say that if you go to Guido, read the main story and follow the links, you may feel a bit better after tuesday’s disaster.
173 - absolutely, just stupid. Calling her a b!tch was near the knuckle (for an MP I mean) but then to follow up with ‘if she is murdered, you’ll know it was me’
174. If it goes viral it will be a massive moment….
Re 176. Interesting normally Conhome, Dale and Guido don’t go near such petitions but this time all of them have featured it.
110. not true, because of the number of candidates in the election, the local authority in the area actually made a surplus on the administration.
Ouuuuch, Alan Duncan made a bit of an idiot of himself on HIGNFY.
176 - yes. Nobody pays a blind bit of notice to these petitions, least of all the people in No.10. But if the number gets crazy high then it’s suddenly a news story, and it’s a news story that’s depressing reading for the bunker team.
iain dale ,right at the top of his blog,ask is alan duncan pissed on hignfy ?
Everyone was complaining that we didn’t see enough of the other members of the Shadow Cabinet and David Cameron needed to give them more prominence. He does and then it’s “is Osborne going to be replaced?”
We have seen more of Grayling, now more of Hammond. In part this is planned to show that there is a competent team in waiting, in part because the press is now more interested in the Conservative front bench as it looks like they will be the next Cabinet and so media will give them air time.
180. It’s one of those things that if it starts rolling (snowball downhill) you’ll have all sorts of people featuring it. You can just see the likes of Jeremy Clarkson talking about in on the radio and in his column for example.
Interesting bet, Mike. It looks like reasonable odds.
Today, the thing that has really got me heated has been the continuine abysmal, shameful treatment of the Gurkhas. It is a total total scandal that we don’t let heroes who fight for Britain come and live here after a full career’s service.
I trust the courts and public opinion will force the Government to come round soon. Even smarmy git extraordinaire Phil Woolas looked like he knew he was defending the indefensible earlier.
This is not a party-political thing, this should have been sorted by the Tories 20 years or more ago.
183
It’s almost 4000 now. I signed half hour ago and my names not up yet. Not bad for a friday evening.
Hmmm… with the combined readership of Guido and Iain Dale, I suspect it will get quite a lot of signatures.
These petitions are gimmicks. But if the number of petitionees got really crazy (say, 100000) then Downing Street couldn’t ignore it.
But somehow I don’t think the Westminster village is that big. It would still need a major newspaper or celebrity to bring it to wider attention.
The Hannan video became popular when Paul Staines ran with it, but it took Drudge to propel it into the Youtube millions.
Nevertheless, I could easily be wrong. This might be the next big blog-led political story.
Meet Bearack Obearma, the Democratic bear who has gotten into the new spirit that is sweeping America.
http://ccforacc.blogspot.com/2008/12/meet-bearack-obearma.html
185 I noticed it was moving quite quickly. Mind you it has got to beat the road charging to really make a difference I think. It’s got an awful long way to go.
186,if the petition started to get really big numbers ,the media won’t ignore it,then it will really snow ball.
And another Nokia hits the wall…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/5216307/Tony-Blair-opposes-new-50-pence-tax-rate-for-high-earners.html
That Telegraph article is a scorcher !!
I think it is almost another ‘laser printer’ situation…
James, well of course he does - he’s absolutely minted
190 That Blair has been named is significant. Doesn’t matter that he is not quoted. Is the Brownite / Blairite war about to start again?
Mike.
I think Ken Clarke would be a safer bet!
People like him and would take hard medicine from him.
191 - It certainly is. I think you are seeing a catastrophic fracturing of Labour and the bit about polling showing them fourth behind UKIP, that would be almost terminal. It is mind boggling to think that Labour could come behind a fringe bunch of nutters in a national election.
193 - I think it is more akin to the moment when Thatcher started causing trouble for Major.
195 - James, I don’t see why not. They managed in Henley
197 - Yes but that wasn’t a national election. I think for a governing party to come fourth in elections like that would be catastrophic. There is simply no way they could front that out.
Yes, the Blairites have been briefing mightily today. To get a quote like that from Mandelson on the record shows just how raw the divisions within Labour are.
EDIT: note the smearing of Harman at the bottom too.
195. It sounds like ramping to me, ukip has lost a lot of its potency, i think we are more likely to see an overall improvement in Labours position, purely because of that.
190. That sends me to bed on a smile. Labour are heading for much internal grief and plenty of hand wringing. Its going to be great fun.
I don’t think Hammond will ever be in thatposition while Vince is Lib Dem Shadow. He was systematically taken apart by Vince some time ago, on Newsnight, I think. This will be remembered in Tory hierarchy, and although Vince has been his usual polite self when appearing with Hammond more recently, it can be seen how easy a further demolition job would be.
196. Wasnt that about a week into his new job??
I was just watching the New Reggie Perrin and the bloke playing him reminds me of Francis Maude! I think it is hair that makes me think of Maude!!!
204 - I had to stop watching it, it was a total travesty of the original.
196. Perhaps but Brown is weakened and it is much closer to the General election. He has had one Rotweiler put down and the rest are securely in the kennels. He’s pretty much defenceless considering the that his front bench is utterly useless. At least Major had some politicians around him who could handle themselves (e.g. Douglas Hurd). It was attrition and sleaze that killed off Major’s chances.
Brown lurches from one disaster to another and if the fears of June wipe out are genuine then my guess is the knives will come out. In fact such an anonymous article could even be a signal for it to start. WHat you can be certain is though is that they won’t be sending e-mails to each other about it on Government servers.
We’ve got Jeremy Clarkson’s Budget in tomorrow’s Sun. I’ll post it when I get it online.
205 I disagree I think it was very good and you could imagine Martin Clunes character in Men Behaving badly turning into a modern day Reggie Perrin. I was pleasantly surprised.
209 - I think the problem is and to be honest I think sensible voices in Labour realise that the damage they would do in a leadership catfight could be greater than just staying Mum. They really are in a very invidious position. Trying to oust Brown now is going to guarantee that they are out of power for a generation, wheras keeping him means that there is only a likelihood that they will be out of power for a long time.
3992 signatories - inc Anthony Charles Lynton Blair and Tony Blair…
208 I’m with James. “Perrin” - Travesty.
8 shy of 4000 now and all from blogs.
211 I wasn’t too convinced by the CJ character but his desk/big chair joke made me laugh.
CJ. “1, 2, 3, 4, keeping them sweating at the door…”
Mike,
Traditionally, it’s always the Chief Secretary to the Treasury and their shadow who always do the rounds (including Question Time) after the budget. No great surprise about Hammond being seen everywhere. You may remember that it was in this post-budget role that a certain John Major first came to public prominence.
More telling, I think, is the number of programmes that Yvette Copper has been ducking…
Can’t see this petition - whatever it is - taking off if no-one links to it.
213. Shame really, reduces the credibility of it.
219 - Who knows one of them might be real… given the telegraph article.
@218 (tres)
The No 10 website is banned from PB for some reason. Try http://tinyurl.com/dfrxm6
218
That’s because if I try linking, Mike’s system seems to block my post. Go via Guido.
Alan Duncan made me wince tonight. You could hear the lack of laughs when he made “jokes” about his expenses and salary. The silence was deafening.
Ouch.
@208: Curses. I was recorded it while catching up on “Law and Order” from BBC Four the other week, just in case that turned out to be the case.
212. I agree but I think it’s getting close to the tipping point. Wednesday’s budget is amongst the worst of all time I suspect and it’s highlight was basically p*ssing all over Tony Blair’s ‘legacy’.
Smeargate, Greengate, P0rngate. These have note happened over months or years but over a matter of weeks and after an avalanche of bad headlines from October 07 to August 08. Unless something turns up before the summer recess I could see Labour acting out of fear of future oblivion.
I’ve long thought Brown would see it out to the election. Now I’m not so sure………
And with that I need to be off. Adieu mes amis……
note=not
A response
What almost nobody has grappled with the is my main point - Osborne is perhaps less suited to the process of overseeing massive cuts than other possible contenders. This is going to define an incoming Tory government and needs to be handled with great sensitivity. Hammond, and possibly Gove would do this a whole lot better.
Osborne raised a sort of doubt about whether he would indeed be chancellor in an interview the other day. He’s smart enough to recognise that he is an easier target for opponents than others like Hammond.
When I got on this bet it was 33/1 shot. I’m saying that there’s more than a 3.33% chance of it coming off. My form of political betting involve looking forward and taking a punt on my judgement.
227. I agree with you on the substance of it, Mike - but what do you do with Osborne without making it look like a demotion?
Mark Senior = Shirley Bassey
229. erm what?
227 = the bet has value
I saw a bit of Gordo speaking to some Welsh Labour people, whats with his shoulders, they seem to be barely controllable, and the nodding head.. it looks bizarre.
In case it’s of interest: there are a large numbner of emails from MPs of all parties flying around as backbenchers chew over the alternative allowance proposals. Various anomalies are being suggested - e.g. the Brown plan would kick in near the start of the recess, so MPs would immediately have 3 months’ rent to pay without recompense (though the press would say we deserved it for taking a long recess), the Cameron plan excludes all furniture, so a new MP would need to rent a furnished flat or sleep on the carpet. There’s still a residual ‘why do we let the press push us around?’ theme, too, with retiring MPs especially vocal in that vein (nothing to lose, of course). I suspect there will be lots of detailed amendments.
227. I still can’t see why Osborne is less suited to the process of overseeing massive cuts. If by that you mean his background is a disadvantage I don’t think Cameron sees it that way.If Osborne’s background mattered to Cameron he’d have ditched him over Deripaska, and we know he’s ruthless enough to.
C&N showed the toff attack does not play anymore. Osborne’s in the box seat now to do the planning about cuts, he’s talking about cuts and if the public elects the Tories they’ll expect Osborne to deliver cuts.
PS Newsnight on in a moment, looks like its leading on the GDP figs…..
@233 (Nick Palmer MP)
Did you see the emails from this discussion which were leaked to the Evening Standard earlier? The Shadow Northern Ireland secretary said something very stupid.
I put it to you that inter-party emails on this topic will lead to further embarassment and maybe a scandal - because anything even vaguely contentious could EASILY leak again.
235. Vince doing a PPB on BBC 1 in a minute.
It’s over 4000. Well over in fact.
234 - I can kind of see what Mike is getting at, but I would tend to agree with you. I think it would look unusual for Osborne to not be Chancellor unless he is moved this side of the election.
233. What’s wrong with an MP renting a furnished flat? How about something even more radical….rather than sleeping on the floor perhaps MP’s should buy their own beds. It’s what the rest of us do. They can sell them on ebay when they are no longer required.
Just a bit of fun
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/clarkson/article2395574.ece?offset=0
227 You have just highlighted what makes him so much better that Gordon.
He is smart.
He is strategic rather than tactical.
He is self aware.
He puts party before self.
He is brilliant.
227. Mike. I agree that Osborne doesnt look best placed externally to do cuts. BUT, internally in government it will require a political heavyweight to bring departments and ministers to heel. Someone who can rely on Cameron’s support. I can’t see Hammond having the internal weight or Cameron’s support.
for those of you of a nervous disposition, look away now.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8017624.stm
54 - Composition is
Labour 216
Conservative 197
Lib Dem 72
UKIP 2
Crossbenchers 205
Bishops 26
Others 13
Total 731
No I think you have that a little wrong.
Mad Fascists 216
Sensible Fascists 197
Pointless Fascists 72
ESN Fascists 2
Uncommitted Fascists 205
Head banging Fascists 26
Other assorted Fascists 13
Total amount of fascists 731
Good evening.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1173307/MAIL-COMMENT-Gurkhas-betrayed-treacherous-ministers.html
Nick Clegg on Newsnight looked like he had been battered across the face with a kipper.
‘a new MP would need to rent a furnished flat or sleep on the carpet’
Or heaven forbid, buy some furniture, like any mere mortal would.
Once again staggeringly out of touch.
“the budget is not honest” according to Vince
245
We don’t need 731 peers/fascists. That’s at least 300 too many.
Who was the hottie talking about public sector pensions on Newsnight?
251 - Susie Squire of the TPA
tim = Zha Zha Gabor
251 not got there yet I am watching on the internet, it must be a few minutes behind???
251 not got there yet I am watching on the internet, it must be a few minutes behind???
250. The Lords only had around 50 members in the early 18th century.
252 you should hear her gospel singers…
244. Why is it Brown calls Public Spending - Investment?
Or even Public sector cuts - Effieicency saving?
Geoffrey Robinson on Newsnight is floundering completely.
@252:
Vince Cable?
Why interview him if hes not going to comment on this that or anything?
Geoffrey Robinson = Rula Lenska
247 Sign the Gurkha Justice petition.
227 I take the point that Osborne may not be the reassurring face of austerity. I know he is the hate figure of nutters like Tim, and Morus has some irrational dislike of him. and yes he is not the most polished politician, but I always feel that Osborne is a genuine decent bloke who also has some truly innovative ideas and that is what is needed from the next chancellor.
Hammond is I believe also a decent bloke, and while he might tick the reassuring and slightly more cuddly (although I am not convinced) boxes I am not at all certain he will be as inventive as Osborne.
Creativity, invention and innovation will be the keys to getting us out of the disaster we are in and I think Osborne is better suited to that task than any other politician around at the moment.
The idea that Hammond’s “background”, in the form of his state school education, is going to make cuts more palatable than from the priveleged Osborne doesn’t look too smart when faced with the News of the World’s estimate of Hammond’s wealth of £9 million, more than double Osborne’s.
Osborne has already shown he is a much more talented politician than Hammond will ever be.
193 -
Ferrets in a sack.
262 - Well it is instructive that he was who was put up. Could they not get anyone more senior?
264 - Did it ages ago. I would encourage everyone to do so.
267 - http://photos1.blogger.com/photoInclude/blogger/1288/553/1600/new_ferrets.jpg
Is Kirsty wearing a beach towel?
Interesting piece from Mr Parris
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6164136.ece
@271:
Rather that than Kirsty *not* wearing the beach towel.
*shudder*
Geoffrey Robinson on Newsnight was an absolute embarrassment and displayed perfectly how Labour have completely run out of ideas on how to restrain public spending and manage this recession.
He did not have a worthwhile comment on the discrepancy between the Darling’s Q1 growth estimate and the actuals. At one point he seemed to be saying that nobody’s forecasts are worth a fig (including Darling’s) and because ONS actuals are subject to revision they are not worth commenting on either. Honestly this budget is a disgrace and an insult to everyone’s intelligence.
194 - made me smile (Telegraph article)
269. In the way of these things, there’s also a facebook group
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/group.php?gid=32764447406
274. I thought Robinson was displaying signs of, how can we put it, being “emotional” or even starting to lose his marbles. If that is the best on offer from the Government, it is seriously not good enough.
wibbler at 237: No, haven’t seen an email from the Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary on this - what did he say? But I certainly assume that anything I say to 640 MPs will definitely be leaked if it’s embarrassing! It even crosses my mind when I write here, though I’m sure you are all the souls of discretion.
277. You’re right, he did look and sound like he’d had a few.
@278 (Nick Palmer MP)
It was the shadow NI minister, Laurence Robertson.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/04/mps-pay-tory-frontbencher-denounces-brown.html
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Saturday-April-25-2009/Media-Gallery/200904415269017?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15269017_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Saturday_April_25%2C_2009
277 - He was all over the place. I think the fact is none of them show any sign of being able to handle it. In the face of this economic situation they seem to be going bipolar, they want to try to paint it as going to end really quickly and just like a bad cold that will knock the patient for a few days and then everything will be ok and yet simultaneously paint it as like bubonic plague that we shouldn’t let Conservatives near as they will kill the patient. So they get caught trying to believe and articulate two narratives at the same time.
“Thieving MPs and why I was wrong… Brown will NEVER stop this culture of corruption”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1173348/PETER-OBORNE-Thieving-MPs-I-wrong–Brown-NEVER-stop-culture-corruption.html
Quote of the week from Robinson (apart from this): “We have a dramatic national emergency.”
In vino veritas?
I think part of Osborne’s problem is that the media have decided they just don’t like him. I think Hammond would be a very good choice- him or Hague. I think that bet is a very very good call.
As for Osborne’s position in that case- he wouldn’t get demoted as such, but moved across. Maybe Home Secretary or the Foreign office if Hague becomes Chancellor?
Spain has 4m unemployed (17.4%)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54cf94a6-30a9-11de-bc38-00144feabdc0.html
283-From the link:
“Instead, the Prime Minister defended these two thieves — and I repeat, if they wish to sue me for using that word, I look forward to seeing them in court.”
To MM - Well send xheque to requested address .
Re comments on the effect of the recession on the numismatic trade . The market is strong and prices are still rising . This is similar to the way the market remained strong in the early 1980’s coins being seen as an investment by many who are not true collectors . I would point out a warning that the numismatic market went seriously backwards in the late 80’s/early 90’s when the investors wanted to unload and there were insufficient true collectors wanting to buy . It was not until the early 2000’s that the market started to recover strongly and we seem to be repeating the experience of the early 80’s now .
Over 4000 signatures on the petition for Brown to go on the Number 10 site so far;).
The Times has an article about how “Boris despises Cameron”.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6164695.ece
I think the upcoming Boris-Dave rivalry could be as big as Brown-Blair.
Even if they get on moderately well, the article shows that the press will create the rivalry for nothing else other than to sell papers. I’m sure they can always find “sources close to the Mayor/PM” to come up with a disparaging quote or two to grease the wheels.
Evening all.
On topic: No. No, no, no no.
I think Cameron has pretty much put his team in place. On numerous occasions he has talked about how important it is for the Conservatives to be ready to govern on Day 1. That means each and every one of them has to master the brief. You can’t expect that if you swap people around with only a few months to go.
Osborne will make an excellent Chancellor. He is very, very smart, and doesn’t make many mistakes (yachting companions excepted). He hasn’t got the natural, effortless media manner of a Cameron or a Blair, and he looks a bit young. No matter. He is an effective speaker, 100% dedicated, an excellent strategist, and Cameron’s right-hand man.
All in all, I’d say this was not a good bet: less than 3% chance, so not good value.
286. wibbler April 24th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
Similar to this country when you add all of those on long term sickeness into the scheme!
The MSM finally put Gordon in a lightbulb!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5215414/Will-the-last-person-to-leave-Gordon-Browns-Britain-turn-out-the-lights.html
I did it months ago!
234: Nick
Is there any conversation about the generous payoffs for defeated MPs?
If I have that right ours get roughly 6-12 months of salary with £30k tax free, while e.g., in Norway they get one month.
I don’t think that is on the public radar yet, but when it hits they’ll start comparing it with SSP.
“Lord Mandelson: being third person in new Labour marriage wrecked my career
Peter Mandelson regarded himself as the “third person” in the new Labour marriage between Gordon Brown and Tony Blair and believes that his career was wrecked because he could not get on with Mr Brown, he told The Times in an interview published today”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6163731.ece
290- that’s very interesting. Do you think he’d return to Parliament after 2012? Could be looking to succeed Cameron, I wonder whether he could pull off the serious politician appeal- I honestly don’t know whether he could do it.
It will be interesting to see where in the Cameron’s cabinet criticism will come from.
295 “third person in new Labour marriage wrecked my career”
Poor Lord Mandy = Lady Di
LOL!!!
296
He may well be, but too many people IMHO underestimate David Cameron.
296 - Boris has a surfeit of ambition and a comprehensive lack of reality. He makes a good Mayor beacuse it is a position that is structured differently to PM/Leader of a Party. I am a Boris fan but anyone who thinks that he could be a leader of a major political party need to be reacquainted with reality at the end of a heavy cudgel.
297 - *poor taste joke coming*
Do you think we can convince Mandy to speed through Paris one night?
Martin Day - did you hear the two references on Reggie Perrin to the “Stubble Conference in Huddersfield on the 19th” - will you be attending?
293 - Wow. A massive move by a Blarite and also an open threat to Brown in my reading. NPMP might need to get his wallet out for our bet at this rate!!
There are plenty of people in the Cabinet ready to give it the kiss of life at the first opportunity. For now it lies in a coma; the prognosis for a recovery in the short term looks bleak. And having delivered three remarkable election victories, the chances of it reviving in time to help secure a fourth are receding every day.
Lance Price is a former Labour Director of Communications and author of ‘The Spin Doctor’s Diary’ (Hodder and Stoughton, 2005); http://www.lanceprice.co.uk
294. Perhaps the Labour Party will start using potential payoffs as a campaign slogan: vote for me, otherwise I’ll get £30K tax free. Can the country afford the number of payoffs that may be necessary? Has Darling budgeted for this?
299 - I find myself agreeing with James. The Mayoralty is a job designed for someone like Boris. I love the guy, but he’s not actually designed to be a party leader or a PM.
@296 (Lloyd)
Well, unless he has a huge scandal, Boris could waltz into any safe seat by-election in the country.
But he absolutely has to stick around for the London Olympics, so unless he loses the 2012 Mayoral election he won’t be back in Parliament till 2016 at the earliest.
I don’t think Boris has a dedicated Parliamentary following. David Davis does (although it is probably small). I see him as more dangerous in the short-term.
EDIT: I agree with commenters above. Boris couldn’t really be PM. But he could easily cause major ructions in the Conservative Party (arguably, is doing so now by bringing up grammar schools in a newspaper column).
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1173334/Credit-crunch-madness-Ministers-spend-4billion-taxpayer-money-consultants-tell-jobs.html
There is plenty of fantasy political shuffleboard on here tonight.
Fun but not fit to risk money on.
297-
295 - That Mandelson interview seems like a vindicatory/valedictory thing. Coupled with the Lance Price thing and the Blair story in the Telegraph there is enough there to keep Labour Krelinologists cogitating. There is almost a palpable fin de siecle feel emanating from senior Labourites now.
4500 have now asked Gordon to go. Amazing how many people follow blogs when you think about it.
A few weeks ago Fraser Nelson wrote a piece in the NOTW about how Boris could be the first victim of an unpopular Cameron government which had announced draconian spending cuts to get the budget back under control. I think Boris is well aware of this and therefore he has decided that like Livingstone, he needs to be seen as being his own man and not a party stooge, so he has decided to open up some distance between himself and Cameron. I don’t believe that he “hates” DC but equally he doesn’t want to be seen as his mate.
291 - “Osborne will make an excellent Chancellor” yep, and Eric Pickles would be a good dietican.
Osborne is bright, but needs a behind the scenes job. Cameron does needs to act fast.
@311 (The Watcher)
Not entirely convinced. If he wanted to attack Cameron in view of the unpopular cuts a PM Cameron would have to make, he would do so from the left rather than the right if he was thinking about electoral positioning.
312 - Chancellor is largely a behind the scenes job, you very rarely see a Chancellor out in public. Darling you see at Budget, PBR and Party Conference time and the regular Treasury Questions. It is only when you have a Ken Clarke figure that Chancellors are given fractionally more latitude. Otherwise they are buried in the Treasury and rarely see the light of day.
299. James Burdett April 24th, 2009 at 11:30 pm
Nick Clegg is a leader in the Boris Johnson pigeonhole - Boris obviously thinks he cannot win re-election!
301. Peter from Putney April 24th, 2009 at 11:31 pm
Indeed I did notice it! Hudderfield gets quite a few mentions in various TV programs!
Polly has an article, but I will not link to it. Too boring.
315 - He might be right, but it doesn’t hurt to be semi-detatched. It rather depends on what goes on between now nad 2012 when Boris is up for re-election. At the moment there is some evidence that the Labour family is struggling to keep it together and may fall apart post election. That would make Boris’ job slightly easier.
SBS It looks remarkably like prejudice there. As in most of the posts attacking Osborne you provide no argument. As far as I can see the only criticism is that he is not photogenic and a maestro at PR.
What has that to do with being a good Chancellor? He is competent enough at the public face of the job, but that should not be the main criterion for success.
We have had a load of those smooth shmoozing spinners over the last eleven years and a lot of good it did us. What we need is competence in the job not another grinning gibbon who can’t manage a whelk stall.
The Watcher April 24th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
The evening standard seems to think Boris is not even going to run!
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/
318. Witan April 24th, 2009 at 11:49 pm
Pit the younger!
315 Indeed Martin, I suppose it just sounds very “northern” with amusing undertones, leading to a number of rather childish jokes - for example: “She was only the footballer’s daughter but she liked her udders feeled”
It’s the way I tell ‘em you know.
The number of Boris stories today seems very surprising… there is definitely something going on.
Sun editorial leads on Gurkhas.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece
321.
I like the area, it is quite veriried and good access to hills, woodland and motorway! With rising sea levels they may have a beech nearby soon as well!!!!
322 - It is approaching the first anniversary of the Borisisation of London!
Martin Day perhaps not that but agism is not only a prejudice against the old, it finds out the young too.
Saturdays Front pages.
http://tinyurl.com/dh9mmw
Also playing with Tiny-url for the first time so I hope it works.
327-It works.
I don’t know much about Hammond but I wasn’t impressed with him on Question Time last night. In fact I wasn’t impressed with any of them, they allowed David Starkey to insult the Irish, Welsh and Scots and didn’t say one word in rebuke. Of course neither did the BBC’s big pal Dimbleby. Spineless lot.
Feel the full force DRAMA of the life of Peter Mandelson:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6134152.ece
Peter Mandelson comes across as a drama queen of the first water, but I can’t imagine anyone going to all that trouble to mess with the man for OVER A DECADE. I mean, why did Brown bother with it? What exactly did Mandelson do? The whole myth that Mandelson actually did a mortal injury to Brown by switching his support in 1994 doesn’t make sense to me–it’s all built on this idea that Mandelson was some sort of super-PR master whose very whim could sway the entire Labour party, and if he had backed Brown everyone would have voted for the man. Which is flattering to Mandelson, I’m sure, but it just isn’t true.
I’ll guess and say that the reality of the situation will be revealed After They All Are Dead, but maybe I am wrong?
#327 Simon
You can put a Tiny logo into your tool bar. Visit tiny URL and follow directions. I use Twitter also and have one for that too. So much easier than opening page, cutting and pasting. Give it a go.
Comres
Con 46 Lab 25 Lib 23
Best guess
Q1 contraction: Brown is very bravely sending Darling out for media bayonet practice.
Phillip Hammond looks vagely piscene. Not reassuring in a Chancellor.
“Andrew Grice: The moment that finally cost Labour the general election”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-the-moment-that-finally-cost-labour-the-general-election-1673987.html
332 Wayne - according to Mike, we won’t be seeing a ComRes poll this weekend.
331 – Thanks subrosa, I’ll give it a try. Can’t remember who mentioned ‘tiny’ here, so hat tip etc, you know who you are.
Confession, I’ve avoided posting links that are longer than the article so as not to look even more dumb, prepare to be plagued my hearties!
336-
Labourgraph reporting that Bliar disagrees with the 50p.
He’s out of No 10 and thus has to pay taxes on his earnings, like us proles, as opposed to calling them “expenses” and getting them tax free.
So I spose he would oppose it, wouldn’t he?
334. Yes the myth of Investment = Public spending in Brown luanguage needs to be well and truely abolished!
338. Interestingly when QD defected he was asked his opinion on the higher tax rate being more than 40% and he said he did not think Labour would up it!
QD really looks a fool now!
339- Best part of the article:
“The Prime Minister’s strategy was too obvious for its own good. “The 50p tax rate was an elephant trap that a blind fool would have sidestepped,” was how one senior MP described it to me. And he is Labour.”
It’s clear that no one in the Cabinet dare say “Boo” to Brown, since all the big hitters were pushed out.
Having said that who would want his job anyway. Could there perhaps be a revolt by Labour backbenchers - no! This despite the fact that any number of them will lose their jobs should Brown remain in charge.
It’s a funny old world isn’t it?
329. Wouldnt have been an issue if he’d insulted the English either
342-”It’s clear that no one in the Cabinet dare say “Boo” to Brown, since all the big hitters were pushed out.”
Not even Mandelson?
341. Me April 25th, 2009 at 12:18 am
That’s the problem with Brown - everything is so obviously including his involvement in the Mcbride affair.
Shock horror next week as MPs vote down Brown’s proposed £150/day “just for turning up, no questions asked” allowance.
Brown resigns with immediate effect, saying he can’t carry on since he clearly doesn’t have the support and respect of the House.
Dream over, unfortunately.
330 Personally I’ve never understood Mandelson’s reputation. He actually got on board as supposed spinmeister in 1987 and proceeded to deliver two utter disasters - the defeat of Kinnochio in 1987 and yet again in 1992, by Major, who in so doing got the biggest popular vote ever.
His supposed successes only began after he started lying systematically (pace Peter Oborne). Ooo, ain’t he the brilliant strategist? At about this time, he was also committing mortgage fraud with the assistance of Geoffrey Robinson. Says it all. He duly ended up resigning from the Cabinet twice, once for dishonesty and then for corruption. To the extent that he was involved in the 2005 election, Labour won that with a vote share smmaller than the one Callaghan lost with in 1979.
So, as I see it, he lost two elections, won two but only by lying, won a third thanks only to gerrymandering and has been repeatedly exposed as dishonest.
Why is this guy regarded as skilful?
Is it because he’s such a skilful surfballer?
Polly is as deluded as Brown judging by her latest effort.
345-Martin Day- He thinks he saved the world! He’s crazy.
You know, I think the source in that Dave/Boris article is just talking arse. It’s entirely possible there is some professional tension between the two, but this idea of loathing and Boris being amazed when Dave won is poppycock. And why? Because Boris endorsed Dave for the leadership; one of the first people to do so. He did it barely a month after the leadership speculation had started - in June, before pretty much anyone had endorsed anyone else:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2005#Timeline_of_events
Quentin Davies at around 4:18 into the clip QD says that the tax burden on the rich should not be increased! In fact the way he says it makes him look pretty distasteful about it!
QD just before his defection was also writting to the then C of E to see how much a reduction of IHT from 40% to 10% would cost!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_7010000/newsid_7014300/7014393.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&asb=1&news=1&ms3=22&ms_javascript=true&bbcws=2
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/47125,news,the-mole-budget-mystery-what-are-the-cameron-team-up-to
itll be interesting to see how many labour mps actually turn up to vote, especially cambinate ministers!!
Do the house of commons publish attentance figures?? it would be interesting to see just how many mps do actually turn up!!! especially brown!!
i think the principle of it is actually ok, though it should be a punishment scheme plus a wage rise rather than reward scheme and pay freeze
Hammond now 20-1. I think 33-1 represented value so put a tenner on it. As Mike says, definitely more than 3.3% chance of it happening. Not sure about 20-1 though.
As a (usually) loyal Labour supporter I think the government have lost the plot over the last few years, starting before Brown. I don’t believe the Tories would have prevented the financial crisis for one moment but I tell you this, Cameron is the first Tory I actually trust with the NHS and I supported David Davis enough over the 42 days issue to send him some money for his campaign. I never thought THAT would ever happen.
Frankly politics in this country needs more people with experience of proper jobs and normal family life. What’s happening to Labour is a function of that problem, but I don’t expect the Tories to be any better.
228. i dont know Mike Smithson but i think his site is great. it would be even better if he understood something about betting percentages. 33/1 is a 2.94% chance not 3.33% as he says. Perhaps he doesnt win much, but his site encourages debate about what is a good bet and what is not
Gove is now explicitly saying that “we will finish the job started by Tony Blair”.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2009/apr/25/conservatives-school-policy-primary-academies
I seem to remember Osborne saying something similar in his public budget response. Cameron’s “heir to Blair” soundbite captures the most astute piece of political positioning in recent history - especially when the alternative is Brown.
346. If they did dump him a parliamentary rebellion or series of will likely play a key role in undermining him.
Sadly too many with their noses in the trough for this to be a signature rebellion but it’ll be an interesting vote all the same.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1173356/Brown-prepares-ground-8bn-jet-deal.html
and
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1173360/UK-promises-15bn-boost-IMF-resources.html
351. I have just done a blog post with the House of Commons Written Question on it!
http://delivernothinglabourparty.blogspot.com/2009/04/brown-in-trouble-with-defector.html
UK faces losing top credit rating as sharp decline in economy continues
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/24/gdp-recession-alistair-darling
:O
356 - I think that that is what you are noticing is that Cameron and Osborne are beating Labour at their own game of defining the terms of the debate. The ‘heir to Blair’ seriously narks the dinosaurs but is very clever because it simultaneously puts them in the effective middle ground and strengthens their flank because Labour can’t effectively attack them without being told that until a few years back they were doing the same. Also I think the second big piece of positioning was in the Autumn when they came out as deficit hawks which was brave almost to the point of stupidity at the time and probably contributed to the Brown bounce, because they looked to be on the wrong side of the argument. They were way ahead of even Voodoo Vince not that he would ever admit to being outfoxed on his Mastermind subject, but he was.
348 Polly is wailing against the dying of the light.
The banking failures and Gordon Brown’s espousal of fiscal stimulus gave her, and others like her, a glimpse of the New Jerusalem. Capitalism had failed, the Government was saying and seemed to be intent on delivering her agenda, bankers bonuses (that annual ritual of Toynbee articles attacking City greed) over, tightening tax avoidance through closure of tax havens, more expenditure on the poor, more active Government.
On Tuesday the left were still dreaming of People Budget II, a century after Lloyd George’s one. Polly expected (as did other commentators - briefed by No 10 trying to bounce No11?) a £3bn boost to tax credits to meet Child Poverty targets. She hoped for the actions Gordon had been talking of, but those hopes shrivelled as Darling monotonously delivered the death knell.
Hopes dashed, the vision proved a mirage, the forecasts predicated on deep squeeze of public spending and less rather than more Government.
Polly rages, but she knows her hopes are dashed, her hopes in Gordon Brown proved illusory. Its the twilight of this Labour Government but more than that its twilight for her generation of activists. She fears that in a decade or more, when she is well into her seventies Jerusalem will be as distant as it was when she started.
360 - If the UK is downgraded then I would suspect the fallout to be grim. I think that the likelihood at this stage though is remote but when you are running up debts at the rate they are then the risk that your lenders will take fright is massively elevated. Sovereign debt ratings are an indication of faithfulness in respect of repayment, we by rights shouldn’t even be contemplating the possibility of a downgrade. That we are is a sign of just how awful the public finances are.
358 A few years ago when Germany was under budget pressure it tried to withdraw from Eurofighter, the British Government put huge pressure on the Germans to meet their commitments… now its reversed. Odd world.
Clarkson has called Gordo deranged in his Sun column! How come no outrage, he called him a one eyed (check) Scottish (check) idiot (check) and there is “national” outrage. He calls him deranged and….
362 - Poor old Polly, a deluded bint that never learnt from experience… She has always been and will always remain basically a Roger with t1ts.
“Brown feels the strain as he ‘pushes printer off desk in rage’”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1173231/Brown-feels-strain-pushes-printer-desk-rage.html
We’re running a story today about GB throwing things when he gets annoyed. We’re calling it PMT (Prime Ministerial Tension)
368 - PMT? or The Red Rag flying here?
Btw, Damien McPoison knows where you live *cough*
Catching up:
Have now seen Laurence Robertson’s comments: he appears to feel that donating prizes to raffles is a necessary expense of the job - does he mean it’s something we should be able to claim on expenses? That’s bizarre!
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/04/mps-pay-tory-frontbencher-denounces-brown.html
Another little-known perk that I recently discovered is that MPs are covered up to £50K if we libel someone in the course of our political work (not just if speaking in the Chamber), including both the costs awarded against us and the damages. I suppose the argument is that MPs should feel uninhibited in their comments, but it seems a bit odd all the same.
nick, any thoughts on what tony (peace be upon him) has to say about the fifty pence tax rate?
367 Now the stories of Brown’s temper, of the bullying and dirty tricks in Number 10 are coming out I am reminded of the briefings, reflected in Lobby hacks columns, against Cameron for his ‘overly aggressive and bullying approach’ to Gordon Brown at PMQs last summer. Some of the Labour posters on here dutifully repeated them and gloried in the video of Cameron’s short temper with Channel 4 saying it showed he was temperamentally unsuited to the job.
Snowflake’s presentation of Gordon as bringing out protective feelings for a good man, uncomfortable and gauche, trying his best being unfairly bullied by smoothie PR toff, now looks so unreal but as Skinner’s article yesterday showed it was a feeling shared among a lot of Labour supporters.
The demolition of the fake Not Flash just Gordon persona over last few weeks is unrecoverable.
369 - Cant see why you would need cover in the Chamber, isnt that covered by Absolute Priviledge anyway ?
372: yes - I should have said “not in the Chamber, where we’re fully covered” (though I believe criminal libel is not). There is a £500 personal liability, too, so MPs don’t escape totally scot-free.
370: I like Tony as a chap and respected him as a leader, but he’s long gone, and if he’s expressed any views on the 50p rate, they’re really a matter for him. But my impression is that he’s rather lost interest in domestic UK politics, so I doubt if he’s been quoted accurately.
Nick, so you will be quite happy to criticise the individuals who come on here posting articles from several years ago as being irrelevant and out of touch no?
by the way saying things like this quoted below when we know that you are a media savvy MP is just a little bit of a fib, we know you have read exactly what we have read about Blairs comments,
“and if he’s expressed any views on the 50p rate, they’re really a matter for him.”
He’s lost interest because he clearly prefers cameron over brown! Seeing everything he so mastifully created destroyed by brown and cameron rebuild and rebrand the conservative party he’d so successfully demolished (which i’m pretty sure he admires cameron for given how difficult a task that was!) is obviously to much for him!
If he stayed involved in british politics there is no way he’d follow your and other labour mps’ path of dellusion. He’d have intervened somehow to get rid of brown. If there’s one thing blair’s not, that is a coward, unlike some labour mps…
My opinion: George Osborne will be CoE.
General public won’t care if he is squeaky - what matters is that he gives good budget. In some ways I think modern life has made us think too much about presentation over substance.
I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say that the next government will be broadly popular and more radical than many of us suspect.
376 - I agree. I also expect a lot of pointless smearing and mudslinging from the sidelines, possibly with the rehabilitation of some familiar and discredited names, although I am not sure if the public will take kindly to it if there isnt any real evidence, and the recovery is jeapordised.
Een millioen, vijf en twintig duizend, zes hodert drie?
376 Ryans. Blair not a coward? Have you forgotten his treatment of Dr. Kelly? A blatant performance of a coward, bullying a vulnerable and much weaker man, to save his own skin - utterly contemptible.
376 Ryans. I would add one other thing. Brave men sometimes, under stress, act the coward and are tormented by it for the rest of their lives. Have there been any signs since the Kelly affair, that Blair has had the slightest qualms of conscience? I think not, just thanks that his despicable actions have enabled him to earn millions with his reputation intact - with some people but certainly not with me.
Testing
Just seeing if edit works
I hate to say it but the expression in the photo is a bit Hoon-like.