Can Civil Liberties have an impact?
February 28th, 2009
Today, I will be joining around 1,000 participants nationwide at the Convention on Modern Liberty - a conference of speakers and activists from across the political spectrum who share a concern about the direction with respect to our basic rights and liberties.
Although not an automatic adherent, I acknowledge that we now live in a society that is becoming ever more scary from this particular perspective, and am interested to see what some of the great thinkers of the age have to say on the issue. If memory serves, then there is one CCTV camera for every 14 people in the UK. We have seen the proposal of hitherto-unthinkabe legislation (42 days and the ID card database), and it is estimated that 8% of the population is already on the DNA database, independent of whether they have ever beeb found guilty of an office.
Beyond the Damian Green affair, we have seen modifications (or attempts at modifying) a whole host of fundamental liberties, including trial by jury (for complex legal trials) and double jeopardy. The biscuit,however, should go to Jacqui Smith for allowing (upon her order) the police to search the home of any employee who works for a company that has signed a non-disclosure agreement for the ID cards programme. Overturning the needs for a search warrant on the back of an NDA is just breathtaking government.
Civil Liberties is one of those issues that will rarely if ever garner electoral support for its political movements. Haltemprice & Howden still stands out as a largely anomalous campaign. It is staggering that in 30 years of asking, the issue still doesn’t register on the Ipsos MORI issue tracker, and is unlikely to if it remains in its current format. The Mori options, generated by respondants, are almost entirely ‘tax and spend’ priorities, rather than significant concerns, and I think the poll gets treated as such. Getting more abstract principles to break through as principal concerns is very difficult.
If the comparison can even be made, I remain skeptical that an issue such as Civil Liberties could hold its own agains the major issues in a ‘tax and spend’ priorities, but that is largely a function of the questioning. I wonder if their importance to the Briitish public could be seriously underestimated, and whether there are seats in the South East especially where this could make all the difference. This is a limitation of the strength of modern polling - measuring the breadth and depth of public support for an agenda that has been largely hidden will be a most difficult task, but if able to track and improve those results, then the Convention on Modern Liberty will have exceeded our heavy expectations.
So, will Civil Liberties be a tangible issue at the next election? It could be, but that will take some co-ordinated effort. These good people have their work cut out - but I wish them the very best.
Morus
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Late this morning.
Under this Government, I suppose ‘office’ = ‘offence’, but surely not in your article, Morus?
Turd
I’ve just read a blog in the Guardian by William Hague criticising Labouur over the allegations over UK government involvement and lack of disclosure over alleagtions of torturein Binyam Mohamed’s treatment. The only question I have is why he was allowed back into the country and why he hasn’t been deported back to Ethiopia.
Not really in favour of ID cards but can’t see civil liberties being a big vote winner. It is a club to hit Labour with and may make some of their middle class left wing intellegensia vote LibDem I suppose.
1st by any chance
“It’s a funny old world.”
Back in the day,Labour in or out of power would have been accused of being ‘wet’ on issues relating to civil liberties relating most especially to immigrants and those of different ethnic origin.
Of course this would have got the Indie and the Grauniad purring with contentment along with all the nice people in the country.Naturally Auntie would have been onside.
“We’re livin’ in modern times,friend !” as the man in the Bloomberg ad puts it.Nowadays Labour have relaced the Tories as the Nasty Party and by and large that has worked well for them as a tactic.
Nothing works for Labour any more but it is far too late for them to make any switch in a libetarian direction.
My own personal views on the matter are volatile but are of no importance whatsoever.
The Prime Minister says “When governments fail . . . the ministers who make the mistakes cannot and should not run off with entitlements and with additional discretionary payments . . . This is unjustifiable, unacceptable and we are going to clean up the House of Commons so that this doesn’t happen again.”
Quoting from memory - so one or two of the words may be wrong.
Cleaning up the House of Lords, of course, is a task better left to Hercules.
Can’t help thinking that “beeb found guilty” would make a great headline.
Off to walk to the dog.
Much respect to the fine people @ Convention on Modern Liberty. But they should not blacken their and our cause by associating with Chris Huhne.
He’s now posturing as a defender of Liberty, but willingly goes on TV to defend an authoritarian measure of keeping a fellow European MP, Gert Wilders, out of the country, when the Government was too ashamed of putting up a speaker.
http://bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/2009/02/chris-huhne-social-democrat-chancer.html
“You either support free speech for everybody or not at all, even those you disagree with you must defend their right to speak.”
9.calais-I wouldn’t normally get drawn in to a debate like this but I am in limbo at the moment,waiting for Golf and then Cricket to start.
The Leadership of the Labour Party made the decision to ban Geert Wilders based on the ‘respectable’ notion that this would avoid civil unrest and on the ‘non-respectable’ calculation of electoral advantage.
That decision was nodded through by Cameron and Huhne notwithstanding choruses of dissenting voices from all the nice people.
I wear two hats at least.I used to be a nice person but now I am not……but sometimes I forget !
The thing that really gets my goat is when these issues become PARTY Political.
That they are not !
“Civil Liberties is one of those issues that will rarely if ever garner electoral support for its political movements.”
It’s just a question of people noticing. If/when people start noticing ZNL’s craving for a police state then civil liberties will matter a great deal.
URW: The labour HSec made the decision, at least partly influenced of the threat re civil disorder by the labour (convicted criminal)Lord Ahmed.
Afterwards, they put noone up in the media to defend the decision and the conservatives also hid. Huhne seemed to parade over every available media outlet with his anti-free speech message. And this for a fellow European MP.
It is disgraceful that he now claims to be siding with “Liberty”.
calais- I would like to clarify.If the free speaker were a Muslim cleric advocating the castration of gays and the abolition of free speech, would your stance be the same ?
If he were a Euro MP, it would be identical.
It is truly dangerous to ban the expression of ideas (that do not immediately incite violence from their supporters) when they are made by the peoples democratically elected representatives.
Thanks for the clarification,calais.
“labour (convicted criminal)Lord Ahmed”
Who I am pleased to see is now in Jail. Poetic justice if ever I saw it.
Where is Martin Day? We need him for lots and lots of HA HA HA HAs… laughing faces… Clegg/Kinnock comparisons… and so on and so on. Usually highly tiresome, but today it would only be appropriate.
Lab Dums, prepare to be ridiculed.
‘LibDems miss deadline for Calman review submissions’
The SNP’s Alasdair Allan said: “This is deeply embarrassing for Tavish Scott. The LibDems’ constitutional confusion is beginning to make Labour look coherent. First his party rebels over a referendum on Independence. Now the LibDems fail to make a submission to the very commission they set up. After making such a fuss over the Scottish Government’s evidence it would be deeply humiliating if the LibDems failed to submit any of their own.
“Perhaps Tavish Scott should take Mike Rumbles’ advice and ask his party to decide.”
For the LibDems, a party stuffed with constitutional wonks, to fail to put a submission in by the closing date to a Commission it helped found and has continued to talk up is extraordinary.
It may also be very bad politics. Party leader Tavish Scott this week restated his view that it would be wrong to have a referendum on independence, a view not universally shared within his party.
At various points several of his MSPs have demurred over this stance, believing that it runs entirely against Liberal Democrat principles.
This may have made the forthcoming party conference in Perth tricky. But now, if the party’s whole approach to Calman is up for grabs, it could create an open season on the issue of the LibDems’ approach to where the Scottish Parliament goes from here.
Link.
Please Miss! The dug ate ma hamewurk.
I posted this yesterday when it was ‘off topic’. I will repost it now that it is ‘on topic’
I would like to recommend this article by Philip Pullman in yesterday’s Times which I am sure will resonate with anyone who feels we are moving into Big Brother territory. Both poetic and accurate.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article5811412.ece
Mr Pullman will be speaking at the conference today.
I think the fact that Morus is asking the question shows that civil liberties *are* already having a political impact.
URW pleads that civil liberties should not be party political, but they already are too. There is a more authoritarian axis (pro-ID cards, surveillance, DNA databases etc.), where Labour sit quite comfortably and a more libertarian axis (anti all these things)which is comfortably occupied by the Lib Dems. Meanwhile the Conservatives publically commute between the two poles, depending on the issue and their view of the political advantage, but with their private instincts leaning more towards authoritarianism.
The Economist has a good piece in the civil libertarian “eccentrics” and does identify a potential opportunity for the Lib Dems.
Huhne made a total b****-up over Geert Wilder, but the rest of his party have had a quiet word.
On topic (a change is as good as a rest… )
‘Scottish Government opposes Westminster plans for ID cards’
Fergus Ewing [Minister for Community Safety] said: “The Scottish Government remains completely opposed to the National Identity Scheme, and the Scottish Parliament recently supported a call for the UK Government to cancel its plans for the National Identity Scheme… an unacceptable threat to citizens’ privacy and civil liberties, with no tangible evidence to suggest it will do anything to safeguard against crime and terrorism.”
http://www.arranbanner.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/1569/Scottish_Government_opposes_Westminster_plans_for_ID_cards.html
19 November 2008: ‘Holyrood rejects identity cards’
The government motion was passed by 69 votes to zero, with 38 [Labour] abstentions.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7736588.stm
Previous Lib-Lab coalition government’s statement: ‘Scottish government’s position on ID cards - 16/06/2005′
ID cards will not be needed to access devolved services in Scotland [eg. health, education, the legal system and transport].
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2005/06/16125628
20. Cicero.
“Meanwhile the xxxxxxxxxx publically commute between the two poles, depending on the issue and their view of the political advantage, but with their private instincts leaning more towards authoritarianism.”
On issue of Liberty
LibDem=xxxxxxxxxx=Conservatives
They are both opportunists. Don’t get me going on Lord “Liberal” Carlisle and his nazi-lite terrorism justifications.
“… it is estimated that 8% of the population is already on the DNA database… “
Not in Scotland.
Scotland has consistently rejected proposals to create an English-style national DNA database containing any non-convicted samples…
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2491553.0.Child_offenders_DNA_will_be_kept.php
Therefore, the figure for England & Wales must exceed 8%.
- DNA and Crime Investigation: Scotland and the ‘UK National DNA Database’, Johnson, P and Williams, R (2004); Scottish Journal of Criminal Justice Studies, 10: 71-84.
Since 2001 there have been important differences in the legislative provisions which govern the conditions under which the police can obtain, use and store genetic samples in different parts of the UK. These differences, which designate the circumstances under which it is legitimate to obtain DNA, and the categories of person from whom the police can retain profiles and samples, produce practical and operational issues for the administrators of both databases. This, in turn, affects the types of cross-national coverage that are available to each country. These differences are the focus of this article which seeks to provide a comparison between the legislative and financial supports for the forensic use of DNA in Scotland and in England & Wales as well as a consideration of the issues which arise from data-sharing across both jurisdictions.
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1408072
It is a supreme irony that on a dear little cuddly thread extolling the merits of free speech that a ‘word’ like xxxxxxxxxx appears…twice !
What the flick does xxxxxxxxxxx mean ? And while we are at it, what the flick does ‘flick’ mean ?
In the interests of free speech may I enquire whether you have your reading glasses on?
25 calais.LOL ! I make the odd rick at times.’Forgiverness’ as the karate expert in a Simpsons’ episode (the one about the pretzel wars) once said.
“… we have seen modifications (or attempts at modifying) a whole host of fundamental liberties, including trial by jury (for complex legal trials) and double jeopardy.”
Not in Scotland. Careful of that royal “we” Morus.
Remember, we have a completely autonomous criminal justice system.
“… allowing the police to search the home of any employee who works for a company that has signed a non-disclosure agreement for the ID cards programme.”
Not in Scotland.
Police powers are fully under the jurisdiction of the Scottish Parliament, and we have our own ‘Home Secretary’ (job title is actually: Cabinet Secretary for Justice): Kenny MacAskill MSP. Jacqui Smith is utterly powerless in this regard. Thank goodness.
27: I’d always assumed the terrorism laws and all the other ZNL authoritarian paraphenalia of the last 11 years applied in Scotland. Are there differences?
“The Mori options, generated by respondants, are almost entirely ‘tax and spend’ priorities, rather than significant concerns, and I think the poll gets treated as such. Getting more abstract principles to break through as principal concerns is very difficult.”
Opponents of Scottish independence sometimes point to these Ipsos MORI issue tracker type poll questions, saying eg. “Oh look, independence is only at No.13, behind Health, Education, Planning, Housing etc”. Abstract issues like the constitution, or civil liberties, usually fail to register in that context, but you only have to look at Scottish politics to see how, over decades, these “abstract” issues can totally transform the entire electoral landscape.
Just ask the Scottish Tories. Remember, they used to be the largest political party by far, as recently as the 1950’s. But “abstract principles” worked against their long-term electoral interests.
@SD re my 29:
oops, my mistake.
plse let me know when your buffer has emptied and you flip back into receive mode.
An obvious issue for the LibDems if Clegg ever gets his act together.
It would be quite funny if this thread returned to a thorny old topic, to the great consternation of the mods…
Before you can have freedom of speech, you must have freedom of Thought.
And if you don’t have that, you are already a prisoner…
Government under fire from VC hero:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7916221.stm
“Britain’s most decorated serving soldier has criticised the government for failing to help ex-servicemen and women suffering mental health problems.
Lance Corporal Johnson Beharry, who was awarded the Victoria Cross, said it was “disgraceful” that some veterans struggled to get treatment.
In an interview with the Independent, he said charities had been forced to step in where ministers had failed.
The MoD said a “huge amount of work” was being done on mental illness.”
Two points oon the main article.
1.Public pressure on CCTV cameras is usuallyt for more, not less.
Had the man who was punched to death in a supermarket queue recently not been covered by CCTV, public opinion would be asking why.
2.Those who beleive that the DNA database should be scrapped must explain why there objections are more important than men like this walking free.
Ronald Castree was convicted on 12 November 2007 for the murder of Lesley Molseed.[1]
On Sunday 5 November 2006, it was announced that a 53-year-old man had been arrested in connection with the murder of Lesley Molseed that had taken place in 1975.[2] DNA evidence was alleged to have shown a “direct hit” with a sample found at the scene of the murder. Ronald Castree of Shaw and Crompton, Greater Manchester,[3][4] was charged with the murder of Lesley Molseed and made his first court appearance on 7 November 2006 where he was remanded in custody. At a court hearing on 19 April 2007, Castree pleaded not guilty.[5] On 23 April 2007 he was refused bail.[6]
Castree’s trial began at Bradford Crown Court on 22 October 2007.[7] He was found guilty on 12 November 2007 and jailed for life,[1] with a recommendation to serve a minimum of 30 years,[8] which is expected to keep him in prison until the age of 84.
A DNA sample from Castree, taken on 1 October 2005 when he was arrested but not charged in connection with another sex attack, was a direct match with a semen sample found on Lesley’s underwear, although Castree was not charged with this offence as it was later dropped. During the trial a scientist has told a jury how DNA taken from the underwear of murdered schoolgirl Lesley Molseed were linked to the man accused of her murder.
Anyone unfamiliar with hoorible miscarriage of justice in the Stefan Kiszko case
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Kiszko
33. Freedom of thought doesnt give you the right to bore the f**k out of everyuone else, now wise up and get a life.
35, and if we all had cameras on our foreheads and tracking chips up our noses crime we’d catch more people.
37 – It may cut crime, but would it prevent my wife from getting lost driving to her parents?… again!
Interesting piece, fairly put as always with Morus. There are obviously a fair few people who feel concern about one or another issue on the list, and some, like David Davis, who see a common theme. I think it’s a mistake to group all these issues together, though, both from logic and for the purposes of appealing to the wider public. To take the most common issues:
1. Free speech for visitors. Should anyone be entitled to come to Britain and express any view that wouldn’t be illegal if expressed by a British resident? Good test cases are Wilders and extremist Muslim preachers. There’s clearly an important principle at stake (essentially ‘we welcome free debate from around the world’ vs ‘we have enough problems with domestic trouble-makers without importing more’).
2. ID cards and the ID register. I disagree with most people who express an opinion here, but I accept it’s a significant issue, and have organised a debate with opponents in my constituency so the issues could be thrashed out.
3. CCTV. Any MP will tell you that they frequently get demands for more CCTV, and virtually never (in fact actually never in my case) get demands to remove any existing CCTV. Public opinion overwhelmingly doesn’t see this as controversial or undesirable, and given that recordings are normally deleted after a month they don’t allow a build-up of a pictorial record of anyone’s doings over time.
4. The borders of FoI (e.g. Cabinet minutes). The is important for the media, who will always push for maximum disclosure, but has liited resonance in the public, most of whom accept that some sort of line has to be drawn - indeed, there comes a point where it’s a civil liberties issue the other way (do we have the right to pry into exactly where a public servant spent last Saturday and whom he had lunch with?).
5. Treatment of refugees and terrorist suspects. This ought to be pretty high on the agenda IMO - if there are systematic breaches of liberty, they’re likely to be found for unpopular groups such as these. chrishio’s comment at 4 echoes my postbag - many people are impatient with the idea that terrorist suspects (yes, even suspects) have rights at all, let alone that they’re treated badly.
6. DNA. We had a couple of exchanges on this a while back - again, the public doesn’t generally see a problem in a database of DNA of people who have fallen under suspicion, but the European court and campaigners do.
To lump all these very different issue together has two problems. First, it’s just odd to treat disclosure of Cabinet minutes in the same category as torture of suspects. They might both be issues of concern, but they’re different issues. Second, it reduces support to the hardline libertarian conspiracy theorists, as IMO Calais does in dismissing Huhne above - if a true lover of freedom must embrace *all* these causes, then there aren’t many true lovers of freedom, and any party that embraces them all will have real electoral problems.
tim @ 35 re DNA. Read your own post. The Molseed case is a red herring. Castree’s DNA was not on the database. He was caught when his DNA was tested in connection with another case.
39, if I expressed the same views as Wilders would I be arrested?
And regarding your fourth point, hasn’t Labour released Cabinet minutes of a Tory government under FoI?
34. Morris Dancer. To my shame, when I saw you referring to a VC hero, my initial thought was of the lad from Victor Chandler who rang me yesterday informing ing me that his firm would give me a free bet for every faller I back at Cheltenham next week AND £100 in matched free bets.
Two conclusions. 1. Some issues are MORE important than betting. 2. The boys at vc.bet have not heard of the STJOHN betting service.
42, yeah some things do matter more than betting.
Which reminds me, now that those traitorous Welshies have lost, it’s possible for England to win the tournament!
Hurrah!
40 - JohnL
Wron.
Carstree was arrested on 1 October 2005, in relation to a sex attack.
His DNA was taken.He was released and not chrged.His DNA was put on the Database.
13 months late he was arrested and charged with the Molseed murder, after tests on DNA in the database.
Sorry,typos
13 months later in November 2006 he was arrested.
34. Beharry was interviewed on the radio this morning. He was specifically criticising the NHS in their treatment of veterans, not the MoD, whose care he gave nothing but praise.
I think you’ll find that as long as John Sergeant is not stopped from making an ass of himself on the telly and Cheryl Cole’s view gets equal airing to Simon Cowell’s then the majority are quite happy to let Labour do whatever they please to those nasty terrorist types. What’s a few tortured innocents when the safety of the Big Brother house is at stake? They tuk r jobs and closed Woolies - lock em up. And if the innocent ARE torutured and survive to tell the tale? Well, they should be jolly grateful that nice Mr Brown was able to show that they are, in fact, innocent. But they had better watch it, they are clearly up to something and we will keep a close eye on that.
This is the blanket of ignorance and selfishness under which the New Labour authoritarian posion is free to seep and spread.
Re Wilders, if anyone hasn’t seen Pat Condell’s response then it provides a neat summary of the considerations behind the Home Secretary’s decision:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW6PRABq4HM
Morning all, some of you really must not sleep, either that or you are in foreign parts and sleeping now while I post.
Stuart you are not quie correct. While thankfully we do indeed have our own legal system, police force and “Home Secretary” in the shape of Kenny MacAskill, sadly matters of national security are reserved powers so in theory Jacquiboots does have some jurisdiction in Scotland and her police raid without a warrant could happen, though I am sure the Lord Justice General would have something to say about it and our very independent Lord Advocate (unlike her Labour toady predecessor)would possibly revoke the arrest and order the release.
I have never understood why George Bush and Tony Blair didnt adopt the Scottish model of dealing with terrorist cases, i.e. Lockerbie type trial, though of course it is almost certain the Lockerbie bomber will be acquitted when his appeal is eventually held because all Scots jurists know he didnt do it and he was fitted up by the CIA and MI5.
For our English colleagues:
in Scotland we have 15 jurors not 12 and the trial can lose up to 3 jurors before a halt is called.
we rarely have the mistrials you frequently have because we do not recognise the concept of unanimous or majority verdicts. In Scotland 8-7 is good enough.
in Scotland if someone is arrested and taken into custody then his/her trial MUST start within 110 days except where a court has extended the period and that is very very rare. If the trial doesn’t start on time, the case collapses.
in Scotland we have the “not proven” verdict, equivalent to not guilty. It is a useful half-way house for a jury which smells a rat in the crown case.
in Scotland we require corroborated evidence in criminal cases, i.e. evidence from 2 separate sources so miscarriages are relatively rare and tend only to occur where there has been foul play by the police or prosecutors (i.e. tampering or withholding evidence)
in Scotland until Tony Blair, if the Government was Tory, it appointed LAbour ex-law officers and Labour leaning lawyers to the bench and vice versa. Because Tony Blair abused this and didn’t appoint the last couple of Tory law officers, there was outrage and we ended up with a new system whereby judges are now appointed by an independent selection panel after advertising vacancies. the Lord Advocate continues to technically be a Government minister but under Holyrood not Westminster and Alex Salmond determined that to maintain the independence of the legal system, the LA would not longer be an active government minister so she doesn’t attend cabinet meetings unlike her predecessor who was an active labour cabinet minister. Alex Salmond proved the independence of the LA by keeping our first female LA Elish Angiolini QC even though she was appointed by the former Labour First Minister, wee Jack.
I could go on pointing out the differences north and south of Hadrian’s Wall but you get the drift.
34,42 Lance Corporal Johnson Beharry VC of The Princess of Wales’s Royal Regiment, twice rescued colleagues while under heavy rocket fire in Al-Amarah in May and June 2004.
He was awarded the VC four years ago for “repeated extreme gallantry and unquestioned valour”
I am not an old weepy by any stretch of the imagination, in fact I’m quite a tough old boot, hardened by the experiences of life, but am I the only one to well up inside when I read of someone described thus?
39 While I agree that each issue needs to be examined against the general priniciples those principles need to be consistent and applied consistently.
Take 5 & 6 in your list - in 5 your argument is that in groups like refugees and terrorist suspects the danger arises from the public mood being dismissive of rights, in 6 that its OK because the public generally don’t see a problem.
Applying your point from 6 against issue in 5 there is no problem then in systemically breaching rights of refugees, terrorist suspects or other unpopular groups as long as those systematic breaches have popular support, is all OK because the Sun supports it, focus groups and polling support such actions?
If its wrong however that such groups are treated that way irrespective of public support then same applies to infringement of rights of innocents by holding their DNA.
tim @ 43 — no, you are using emotive cases to cloud the picture. Don’t get confused by the passage of time. The difference is that no-one objects to DNA evidence from old cases being retained. The issue is whether a universal database should be developed (as is happening) in order to detect future crimes.
36. Bravo Yokel
51 - Wrong again.
The DNA was taken from Carstree when he was arrested and released in 2005.
The retention of his DNA for testing would be illegal, as he was not charged.
50, I don’t well up, but I do have utter respect for the bravery and heroism displayed by our soldiers in general and Beharry VC in particular.
It’s something our politicians should remember not only when utilising and equipping (or not) our troops, but also when trying to summon moral courage to oppose the gradual erosion of our liberties at home.
49 Spot on, PfP. Lance Corporal Johnson Beharry VC is a stark counterpoint to the politicians of our age. There was a time when such as he would have been welcomed into Parliament with a 20,000 majority.
Issues generally only have an impact when they are currently high-profile or are directly affecting many people: the NHS is a hot topic when people are suffering waiting lists or dirty hospitals, unemployment and the economy in general is obviously key at the moment, sleaze was big in the mid-90s because it was in the news constantly, Iraq became so hotly contested partly because many people felt strongly and partly because the government (and opposition) looked to be ignoring them.
How does civil liberties fit into that? It’s clear that most people aren’t too bothered about civil liberties as long as the restrictions affect someone else or they believe they are in the greater good and will be competently handled. If they were, the issue would resonate with the public now and it isn’t doing. So if it does rise to near the top of the ‘most important issues’ list, it’s likely to be because restrictions are adversely impacting on people. ID cards seems to me to be the most likely thing that might generate that result - but not until after they are introduced, charged for and being requested.
The other likeliest possibility is the encroaching police state. The police are meant to be the servants of the law-abiding public. That role is being undermined by petty intrusions, a focus on things like speed cameras and misapplied sweeping legislation (such as the terrorism act), which seem to give the police the power to do whatever they want - all combined with a perceived lack of effectiveness. Much of that lack of effectiveness is down to changes in societal attitudes towards rules and authority but the effect is much the same.
Either way, civil liberties is unlikely to be a major public issue until we no longer have them in a meaningful sense. That’s one reason why it’s all the more important that people who are interested and active in politics do our bit to preserve them. We can see the danger and have the ability to act. On that point, we should bear in mind that the dangers inherant in the powers and infrastructure being built up now are proportional to the inclination of the state to use them. Parties of the centre such as the main three (four in Scotland and Wales), will have inbuilt restraints. Economic recessions always produce upswings in support for extremists; depressions can produce extremist governments.
I suppose by extension though with the DNA database, it is only acceptable to hold DNA on file for as long as the crime is unresolved, and then following resolution, an indivdual is held at HM pleasure. It is clearly unacceptable to hold the DNA of someone on file once they have concluded any sentence passed for crimes committed as they emerge with penalty paid and they same rights as the rest of us. This however, seems the natural extension of objection to the holding of an innocent’s DNA - unless we are to conclude that committing a crime permanently impinges your civil liberties - regardless of the crime, or the time served.
Its not easy to be fully in favour of civil liberties - certainly far harder than spotting the gleam on the New Labour jackboots as they stove your face in.
Should the DNA of victims of police incompetence, victims of mistaken identity, wrongful arrest and miscarriages of justice also be retained?
Should the DNA of children below the age of criminal responsibility be reatained?
Should EVERYBODY’S DNA be retained? Because that’s what you’re getting at, T.I.M.
39 Nick I’m sorry to say your Government has driven a coach and horses through civil liberties in the UK and some of the powers exercised Jacquiboots would have shocked Winston Churchill’s War Cabinet.
In Scotland thankfully we still destroy the DNA of accused persons who are found not guilty.
As a right wing Tory who was due to be in the Grand Hotel in Brighton on the night of the bombing but thankfully (though my friends Donald and Muriel MacLean in whose bathroom the bomb was planted were not so lucky) I virtually puke every time any Labour politician accuses we Tories of being soft on terror.
I personally have had 2 friends murdered by IRA assassins though rather curiously my only godson is himself the great great grandson of Thomas Clark, one of the 7 signatories of the Irish Declaration of Independence whom we shot in 1916.
During the period 1969-1994 Labour was in power for 6 years and we Tories for 19 years so having dealt with the troubles on the Island of Ireland for almost 2 decades, we have some expertise on issues of national security. Internment didnt work. Indeed almost everthing your Government is doing now in your so called “protecting Britain” didn’t work when we tried it and all the terrorists we faced were home grown.
It is no coincidence that many of the staunchest opponents of this Government’s security policies are right wing Tories. It is an irony of British politics that many of us who are the fiercest anti-softie policies in dealing with thugs, bullies and ordinary criminals are the most vociferous guardians of our civil liberties. We believe people have the right to know what they are accused of, to have proper access to the evidence which supports those accusations, to proper legal representation to put the Crown case to the test and if found guilty to be properly punished. Labour does not believe in this. If it did, for 8 years we would not have helped George Bush promote torture and kidnappings as a means of handing out “justice” to those deemed worthy of receiving it.
53 — all that happened is the testing of new DNA against evidence in an old case was slow. That is not the same as taking my DNA now in case I commit a crime in 2012.
I am hardly one of your left-liberal types, and yet I too am concerned about the whole Civil Liberties agenda. The DNA database and ID cards are particularly worrying, also the proliferation of CCTV.
I have SOME sympathy with the concept that if you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear, but I have very little trust that personal information will be kept securely and not passed on or lost to third parties by the government.
Given that the tories are in favour of scrapping ID cards (and saving £12bn not incidentally), will any floating voters of a more normally left wing/liberal persuasion vote for them for that alone? I can’t see the numbers of such voters being huge, but maybe it will make a small difference to the result?
49,54,55 - Glad that none of you are arguing that Beharry is a foreigner taking a British job.
55. Yes - even in the 1980s we still had quite a few MPs who had real experience of war and in some cases distinguished service records.
What a contrast with today when so many MPs’ only experience of conflict is having engaged in years of bureaucratic back stabbing. Yet some of these nonentities have the nerve to write books about ‘courage’.
53 — tim bullsh*tting as usual.
Testing at the time of arrest against past ‘cold cases’ is completely different from indefinite future retention.
64 - Wrong.
His DNA wasn’t tested against the old case at the time.
His DNA was retained and it was tested a year later.
59 hear hear Easterross, Labour simply don’t get it and work purely on ends justifying means. Dangerous people, not to be trusted.
“His DNA wasn’t tested against the old case at the time.
His DNA was retained and it was tested a year later.”
Then the police, who supposedly value DNA evidence so much, should’ve got round to testing it sooner, shouldn’t they?
Should the DNA of victims of police incompetence, victims of mistaken identity, wrongful arrest and miscarriages of justice also be retained?
Should the DNA of children below the age of criminal responsibility be reatained?
Should EVERYBODY’S DNA be retained? Because that’s what you’re getting at, T.I.M.
63, trying to win an internet award for most pointless and pathetic post?
67 - You’re thrashing around like an unbroken horse.
I’m merely pointing out what the consequences of the anti DNA database lobby would be.
63 Is it any wonder that those politicians who have no real experience of war are so happy to push our soldiers into conflict? A few battle-hardened MP’s could remind them of the reality of what they are demanding - without being ignored as being “institutionally anti-war”. I’d like to see how much “courage” our PM would muster if faced with a gallantry-decorated soldier, an inch from his face, telling him the score. I reckon the true mark of courage would be on his underpants…
61: The Tory proposal as I understand it is to retain biometrics for passports (which is the main part of the cost because it requires the establishment of the system of local points to collect the data) but to scrap ID cards (which will save £750 million, not £12 billion, minus whatever cancellation fees for ID card contracts are necessary).
Just spotted Rod’s query to me on the last thread (how long did I privately expect to stay an MP when elected in 1997?). I don’t remember thinking about it, really, Rod - too many unknowns to be worth speculating on. I’ve had a lucky life so far and perhaps foolishly have developed the habit of just taking it as it comes. If you fret about possibilities you spend too much time agonising over things that don’t actually happen.
51 Carstree should have been a suspect once Kiszko’s innocence was established and the degree of police wrongdoing in Kiszko’s arrest and in withholding of evidence was laid bare. He had been convicted a year after the murder with abduction and assault of a young girl, lived on same estate. As I understand it his DNA sample was taken in 2006, a search made using it and quite quickly a match made with the unknown DNA, with his conviction following in 2007.
If there had been no matches then what would have been the case for retaining his DNA?
74 - Wrong.
His DNA was taken on 1st October 2005.
I look forward to Tim’s proposal to conscript those who are battle-hardened from the schools and streets of modern Britain, to make sure we have something approximating to full regiments.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to sell them on the idea of volunteering to be sent, ill-equipped, to fight an illegal war, kept in harms way when every rational reason to stay fighting has been stripped away save to preserve some politicians’ vanity project.
54
I wonder if the treatment would have been better if we’d retained the military hospitals.
BMJ 1994;309:222-224 (23 July)
News
Military hospitals hit by British defence cuts
J Warden
Two military hospitals will close with the loss of 1000 staff, 75% of them military, under the latest round of British defence cuts. The present Royal Naval Hospital at Haslar, in Gosport, will become the single hospital for all three armed services for the United Kingdom by 1996-7. Military hospital units will be established in three NHS hospitals in regions with a significant military presence. One will be at Derriford in the south west and the others at sites yet to be selected.
The Cambridge Military Hospital, Aldershot, and the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Wroughton, near Swindon, will close. A presence at Catterick will be retained. The defence white paper states that three existing service hospitals have more beds than the armed forces require. Only 25% to 55% are currently filled by service personnel.
Hang on! that report is from 1994 who was in power then, can’t have been the Tories?
tim, stop mindlessly intoning “wrong” and answer the questions, or else your silence shall speak volumes:
Should the DNA of victims of police incompetence, victims of mistaken identity, wrongful arrest and miscarriages of justice also be retained?
Should the DNA of children below the age of criminal responsibility be retained?
Should EVERYBODY’S DNA be retained? Because that’s what you’re getting at, T.I.M.
35
1) Given your argument, Public Pressure is normally for capital punishment and against unlimited immigration but your party happily ignores the wishes of the public here (if obviously spinning the opposite in immigration). CCTV is not as effective as street lighting at deterring crime, yes it captures pictures of incidents but it does not prevent crime. As for you man in sainsbury’s I would suggest that was a Sainsbury’s camera and if I didn’t want to get filmed by it I should shop elsewhere.
2) Criminals almost always start small and progress, if the DNA database is to be a deterrent then I favour David Davis suggestion of taking DNA from all convicted criminals if possible. meanwhile there is no reason to keep innocent peoples DNA on a database against their will, The labour party has no mandate for this and the European ruling means they have no leg to stand on on this issue.
With both CCTV and DNA database the reality of Labour’s position is actually function creep. It is the Labour mentality to categorise people and a universal DNA database will allow them that power at a genetic level. Combine this with ubiquitous CCTV and ID cards that have RFID transmitters, just crying out for better transmitters, making cards compulsory and a network of receivers say in lamp posts(marketed as stopping car speeding for example). Then what you get is a geographical, visual and genetically categorised set of data that can be used for many reasons at the very least to sell on to business but lets be clear also as a method of government intimidation of the individual.
64. Parliament had WWII veteran representation right through to 2007, Piara Khabra being the last one (he served in the Indian Army). Before that, both Ted Heath and Tony Benn were veterans and retired from parliament in 2001. There is, of course, much more representation in the Lords of former service personnel - though it’s (almost?) exclusively from the officer ranks.
73. OK, Nick, thanks for the reply. Here’s another then.
How sure were you (immediately before each election) of winning in 1997, 2001, 2005?
Nick Palmer the factor which links all those things together is, of course, the Labour government, its policy, actions and attitudes are all authoritarian and statist.
A Shoah-denialist putting questions to a NuLab propagandist..!
I’m outta here.
Jacqui Smith is unbelievably vacuous.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2009/feb/28/jacqui-smith-home-secretary
Again Mr Palmer you talk rot. The massive infrastructure for ID cards, the centres you mention the database and its maintenance which must cover all citizens and all their changes in circumstance and living are massively more costly than a system of biometric passports. The volume is less, the data is less, the maintenance is less. And the number of centres can be far less.
I suggest you look at the plans for issuing overseas passports from embassies. It is quite revealing.
tim has a point but not the one he thinks he has.
After considering tim’s posts, I see there are perhaps three classes: as well as testing against old cases, and the retention of “innocent” DNA against future crimes, there is the third class of testing new suspects’ DNA against old cases for which they are not originally suspects, but this third class is probably no more controversial than would be the testing of burglars’ fingerprints against other break-ins.
The passage of time is clouding the issue. Testing is not instantaneous (although it is now a lot faster than it used to be. Unless we hold everyone without charge until a case is fully developed, people will always be released (or bailed) even if they are subsequently charged.
The criminal justice system is always scandalously slow. Tim asks us to consider the delay between arrest and charge, but it then took a further year to come to court.
That, in my view, is where we can most easily make a difference, as immediate conviction would have a larger deterrent effect, and where politicians should concentrate their efforts.
79. The last cabinet minister was Willie Whitelaw MC, who retired from government in January 1988. Remarkably, his father had been killed in the last days of the First World War…
79. David et al. - quiz question: who was the last cabinet minister to have a) seen active service b) been decorated for such?
An unappreciated consequence of the Government’s approach to civil liberties is that it changes the approach citizens take to information requests. I have been asked to take part in what appears to be a large survey of NHS patients. I chucked my invitation in the bin because I have no confidence that the Government will not use the information for other purposes or sell it on. I am sure that I am not the only one to do this. As a result, the Government will get inferior information to what it might otherwise have got. Even from the viewpoint of good administration, disregard for privacy has adverse consequences.
87. too late…
86. scary….!!!
And my specialist subject is answering questions before they’re asked, like in that Two Ronnies sketch..
Tom Knox would like it to be known that his name has now appeared in print, for the first time, in today’s Daily Mail - albeit mysteriously misspelt “Cox”.
Ah well, you can’t win em all.
Nice puff for the book at the end though. Heh.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1157784/Do-mysterious-stones-mark-site-Garden-Eden.html
92 - Paging Doctor Freud.
85 - Actually JohnL, the delay in this case was due to the emergence of new scientific methods to extract DNA in the original case.
But I think we can agree that Castree would be free if the Police had not retained his DNA.
No-one has asked: why are these authoritarian measures popular? (And let’s be clear - the Tories are not going to sweep them away.)
One explanation may lie in the greying of the electorate. The measures themselves impact primarily on younger people - it would be interesting to have an age breakdown of that 8% on the DNA database, for example. Demographic trends mean that there must now be a significant number of voters over 60 who don’t have a close family member under 30. It is asking a lot of such people to care what society looks like in 20 or 30 years’ time (the same logic makes it difficult for governments to tackle global warming).
Demographic change can lead to a “tipping point”. The smoking ban provides an example - it would have been inconceivable to ban smoking in pubs and cafés in the mid 1990s (and not because we had a Tory government) even though the medical evidence was just as strong then. What changed was that the number of ex-smokers (who provide the anti-smoking bedrock) exceeded the number of smokers. Then the ban became a political necessity.
Similarly, if we reach the point where we have more voters who, by reason of age, fear for their security more than they value their liberty (yes, I know it’s a false dichotomy - but there are powerful economic forces for whom it’s a very useful false dichotomy indeed) than we have voters who value liberty, then the loss of freedom becomes a political necessity. To these perhaps should be added voters who come from cultures which prize solidarity (and patronage) and have no identification with English history.
At request:
Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock!
The Liberal Democrats are doomed - DOOMED at the next election!
They have a pre-paid Yellow Taxi that will remove Nick Clegg from Sheffield Hallam and Chris Huhne from Eastleigh!
LD’s say Incumabancy will save them = I say the Tories 5% Improvement will remove the LD’s! * Any LD doubters should see the Coffee House article!
96 Amen to that!
Brown in 2005: “We Shouldn’t Regulate At All”
96 As far as I know The Tories will sweep away ID cards, 42 days(if labour finally get it through), the Childrens database, probably change the DNA database to only include those who are guilty, probably do something with the NHS database, if only for the astronomical cost. So the Tories will not do too badly, certainly the best on offer if the fact that europe is pushing some of the more authoritarian measures and the tories are more likely to stand up to europe than the wholly compliant lib dems.
98, let’s hope the media and the Opposition use that.
This is sadly Pathetic:
Gordon Brown pins his hopes of recovery on Barack Obama
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5818543.ece
If Brown thinks Obama can save him he is absolutly lost the plot! Brown has one way ticket to electoral oblivion booked!
Message for URW.
If the Lib Dem position on DNA had been in place. Ronald Castree, Lesley Molseeds killer would be free to roam Rochdale.
How ironic if Paul Rowan were to lose his seat on the back of a DNA test.
95. why are these authoritarian measures popular?
Because most of humankind are driven by two base emotions: fear and greed.
It’s inevitable that we’re heading for totalitarianism. I just hope it comes from the Right rather than the Left…
Interesting article by Morus and I think the answer to his question is that Civil Liberties will only become an issue if the legislation passed is used on a widespread basis to ‘penalise’ a significant proportion of the population.
Now there are ways I believe that it can be used as a significant issue. However, I’m unsure that it will ever become so. The question is not so much Civil Liberties, but the cost of the tools required to implement the dismantlement of civil liberties.
It is not surprising that public sector costs have risen significantly over the last 10 years just as technology has proliferated across the public sector and if the total costs were calculated, I would not be surprised that technology total cost of ownership utilises in excess of 20% of public sector costs (excluding bank subsidisation). If the link between the excessive total cost of the technology and the implications of this technology can be combined with the fallability of such technology (primarily GIGO) and communicated to the electorate then perhaps it perhaps will strike a significant chord.
Like everything, the economics of civil liberties or more importantly the lack of them will be the key to this. However, the likelihood that this will be used by political parties is unlikely because the real benefit of technology is the power it gives to those who control it and the way it debilitates those (e.g. the electorate) who are subject to it. Now what political party is readily going to give up such power unless they are forced to?
What is clear is that in terms of public consciousness, the dismal cost/benefit outcome of technology usage in regards to the constraint of civil liberties has yet to be recognised. When it is, Government may well be forced to improve civil liberties but likely not because of a civil liberties agenda but because the public want tax cuts. It is the cost that will likely be the penalty that forces a return to a positive civil liberties agenda.
Tim @35
1) Given your argument, Public Pressure is normally for capital punishment and against unlimited immigration but your party happily ignores the wishes of the public here (if obviously spinning the opposite in immigration). CCTV is not as effective as street lighting at deterring crime, yes it captures pictures of incidents but it does not prevent crime. As for you man in sainsbury’s I would suggest that was a Sainsbury’s camera and if I didn’t want to get filmed by it I should shop elsewhere.
2) Criminals almost always start small and progress, if the DNA database is to be a deterrent then I favour David Davis suggestion of taking DNA from all convicted criminals if possible. meanwhile there is no reason to keep innocent peoples DNA on a database against their will, The labour party has no mandate for this and the European ruling means they have no leg to stand on on this issue.
With both CCTV and DNA database the reality of Labour’s position is actually function creep. It is the Labour mentality to categorise people and a universal DNA database will allow them that power at a genetic level. Combine this with ubiquitous CCTV and ID cards that have RFID transmitters, just crying out for better transmitters, making cards compulsory and a network of receivers say in lamp posts(marketed as stopping car speeding for example). Then what you get is a geographical, visual and genetically categorised set of data that can be used for many reasons at the very least to sell on to business but lets be clear also as a method of government intimidation of the individual.
Innocent Abroad @ 95 “why are these authoritarian measures popular?”
Paradoxically, because they do not work.
People don’t like crime. People demand harsher measures to deal with it. The harsher measures do not work. People demand harsher measures to deal with it. Rinse and repeat.
Street crime rises. We blanket the country with cctv cameras. Street crime continues to rise. There are calls for more cctv cameras.
94. Tim. The quality of your posts has improved recently. Tim is correct in his analysis - Castree would be free if his DNA had not been retained. Those who try to put the onus on Tim - to show that the randomly innocent should not have their DNA retained have a point, but you need to answer Tim’s question.
My answer is “Yes, I’d be willing to see the occasional individual criminal like Castree free as a consequence of not retaining DNA from suspects who are not convicted.”
The Criminal Justice System is a trade-off between a whole load of different things - there is the old saw “better 10 guilty men go free than an innocent one go to jail”, which is one of the reasons why in criminal cases we have the higher bar - of beyond doubt, rather than on the balance of probabilities. So what is the balance we trade off for DNA and the odd crim? It is the right of the State to hold the very identifying markers of every individual - with all the possibilities of using it to categorise people. Do we want the police to know if someone has a “criminal” gene? Or if someone is likely to become an alcoholic or have a higher chance of getting heart disease. Should the NHS be allowed to discriminate against such people? It’s a long slippery slope. I am willing to allow the DNA of convicted criminals to be held as they are by definition people who have forfeited rights and failed in their duties to wider society.
The problem with the “it helps to solve crime” argument is that if everyone was implanted with a GPS chip and a camera in their forehead, that would cut crime too. No one thinks that this is a good idea (I hope), since the potential for misuse is high and it represents a huge intrusion into privacy. DNA is a far greater intrusion and I am unwilling to see us step down that route.
As for Tim’s other argument - “the people want it”. Well, the people want capital punishment and corporal punishment back too. Are you in favour of that? No? Solves that one.
Good article Morus.
Will the question of issuing our Police with Taser’s be on the agenda though?
An issue I feel strongly about.
With the Terrorism Act (2008) now in effect since February 17th, police accountability has reached possibly its lowest level in my lifetime. Thanks to this law, it is no longer safe to even photograph a police officer in the act of abusing their power, or neglecting to do their job.
At the same time the roll out of supposedly non-lethal Tasers to UK police forces continues unabated despite growing evidence demonstrating that these devices are neither safe or humane, nor can police be trusted with them.
See this article in the Telegraph from November 2008 where Jacqui Smith earmarked £8 million to the rollout of new Tasers: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/3...
Here’s a December 2008 release from Amnesty International on their lethality: http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updat...
If you require more convincing that Tasers are powerful, all too easily abused torture devices in the hands of the undertrained, below are a few links and videos that may help convince you.
Taser repeatedly used to coerce crying driver: http://www.foxnews.com/video-search/m/21...
Tasered for not providing proof of insurance to impatient grunt: http://www.statesman.com/news/mplayer/ot...
Wheelchair bound woman dies after being tased 10 times: http://www.clickorlando.com/news/1414751...
Emotionally unstable 89 year old tasered in Wales: http://www.thelabourparty.org/tasered-89...
24 year old dies after second tasering in 3 years: http://tinyurl.com/bhbfth
21 year old dies after being tasered 9 times in 14 minutes by police: http://www.alternet.org/blogs/peek/92348/
3 months pregnant, woman tased while in back of police car anyway: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/2017...
29 year old tased 4 times and dies, recorded as dying of natural causes: http://www.witn.com/home/headlines/34689...
I suspect that we’re missing the point with DNA. The database currently holds records of approximately one person in every twelve.
However, more and more criminals are being caught and convicted through being related to those who are on the database, due to their sharing familial DNA.
Each person on the database could potentially have several such relatives, which suggests that the database may already hold identifiable information on half the population or more.
94 No we can’t
1 - if October 2005 arrest date is correct (most other sources than wiki say 2006) then how long after that arrest was it before match was made?
2 - was match made because DNA was retained and the murder team checked victims DNA against database or as seems to be the case because checks were made using the suspects DNA against unsolved crimes?
3 - did his criminal record and location of previous crimes direct the check towards those areas?
It matters which direction search was initiated because as John L points out in his third category checking a suspect for other crimes is and has been a long accepted process (just as police check for traffic offences if they stop you in a car).
107. Some years ago I read a SciFi story in which a law enforcement agency of the future noted that all crime was committed by the living, and therefore sentenced the whole population to death. Sounds like New Labour have been reading the same stuff.
108. No. Criminals tend to be related to one another and obvious familial markers would cease to be informative beyond a certain familial bond. I think you’ll find that the database probably links to 1 in 4 or less (1/12, throw in fathers, sons, uncles, nephews, but then remember that many of them will already be on the database).
I do hope Tim’s DNA is retained, then the next time he goes out on the piss and chunders in the gutter, they will be able to get his DNA from what he has chundered and his “crime” will have a resolution
110. Runnymede. Judge Death in the world of Judge Dredd.
107 - Entirely correct.
“Yes, I’d be willing to see the occasional individual criminal like Castree free as a consequence of not retaining DNA from suspects who are not convicted.”
Thats the only logical response to what I posted.
“As for Tim’s other argument - “the people want it”. Well, the people want capital punishment and corporal punishment back too. Are you in favour of that? No? Solves that one.”
To be fair Ken, that one was directed at CCTV.
And the issue here is largely whether the state should legislate to stop owners putting CCTV on their property.
Can’t remember the figures, but I seem to remember that accounts for the vast bulk.
Ted @ 109
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/miscarriage-of-justice-corrected-as-jury-finds-man-guilty-of-murder-400089.html
From what I remeber about this case, the technique to extract DNA from the victims body had not been perfected when Castree was initially arrestested and his DNA taken.
So the rest of your post isn’t relevant in this case.
112 - I’m never sick after drinking.
I hear its common down south.
113. Yes - that’s right! Thanks.
114. Tim. Yes. Either one has to admit that or STFU. It’s a trade-off. It’s not a nice trade-off, but neither is allowing criminals to get away with crimes because we cannot meet the “beyond all reasonable doubt” requirement. But, I’d rather that than have lots of innocent people go to jail. The DNA argument is far more serious, as an invasion of privacy it makes ID cards look mild.
The general argument about “what the people want” is a silly one. But people should be allowed to use CCTV on their own property, but it shouldnt interfere with the privacy of others. I’m fairly certain that most people think there should be more street CCTV. I just don’t think that makes it a good argument. After all, I suspect you’d find a majority in favour of torturing terrorists.
114 “And the issue here is largely whether the state should legislate to stop owners putting CCTV on their property.”
No its not that is complete rubbish.
The difference between the “beyond all reasonable doubt” trade-off and the DNA trade-off is that the stupid people on the other side of the argument think that this is costless. The intelligent people on the other side think that the potential nastiness can be prevented through laws (we promise only to use DNA to catch crims through DNA matches from crime scenes). The problem with both groups is that they are hopeless optimists. History shows that mission creep and the exigencies of the situation override safeguards. And that’s assuming we dont get a really nasty authoritarian regime at some point. During the second world war, the Americans interned native born Japanese-Americans. Until the 1970s countries like Sweden and some states in the USA carried out forced sterlisations of the mentally ill. I’m a cynic and I think privacy is a terribly important thing.
The problem is that each step along the DNA database has benefits and no immediate costs (it’s not like an innocent person will be going to prison), but it has huge potential for misuse. Each step will make the huge potential for misuse that much greater and more probable.
119
Didnt I read somewhere that the quality of most CCTV was so bad that it hardly ever was decisive in criminals being brought to book. wasnt it about in 3% of cases??. (This excludes town centre CCTV) I am referring to personal CCTV and in shops
120, Davis has often said that very few of the CCTV cameras are of an evidencial standard.
hello all. interesting question one I’ve been thinking about for a while. I’m not sure they can. A non exhaustive list of a few reasons;
1) People fail to differentiate between suspects and those who are guilty
2) Those who tend to be suspects are not always the nicest of people
3) A lot of people simply arent aware
4) Voters are frightened
5) Voters do not see the effect of losing liberty day to day (”It’ll never happen to me”)
6) They simply do not care whether they are free or not.
Until these reasons cease to matter, civil liberties will not be an issue. On the subject of Geert WIlders, I’m not sure if this is entirely about liberty. He’s not a british citizen. It’s about whether we can prevent someone from coming here because of their views. Simply because we as a community find them distasteful. I say yes. However I still think we should have let Wilders in. But I agree with the decision to ban Phelps.
Off topic: Saw Gordon Brown give the Ramones Lecture yesterday. He was quite good, moderately funny and came across well even though he did have a few strange mannerisms. Completely different to the popular caricature.
Thanks for the article, Morus, and it’s a good thread.
Civil liberties ought to be an important issue among the electorate, but aren’t, probably for the reasons Innocent Abroad gives.
re 97 Why are the Tories doing so badly in Hallam Martin? You come on here tediously making this point and you never answer my question. How many council seats in Hallam do the Tories hold? The answer is ZERO.
How many council seats do the Lib Dems hold? the answer is FIFTEEN.
How many seats have the Tories won off other parties at general elections when they have held no council seats? I might be wrong but I think that over the past half century the answer is ZERO.
By the way, those thinking of backing England might consider the outright winners market, where they’re 13.5.
If they beat Ireland their points difference should bump them to second in the table, and their odds would fall sharply.
France at 6 might be worth a shot. They’ve yet to play Italy, although their points difference are pretty bad compared to Wales and especially Ireland at present.
Thank for that snippet re Rochdale,tim.I would jump at the chance to infringe PR’s civil liberties.
It would be sheer poetry if Rowan were to be excreted via a dirty campaign.
127, forgot to add that those backing France must assume England or Wales (or Scotland) will beat Ireland.
[126] Mike, why on earth do you bother to argue with MD? Like half the other Tories on here he believes that anyone who isn’t a Tory is congenitally wicked or stupid or both. I’m sure you ignore everyone else who thinks that about you (as I do) so why make an exception in his case?
123 In any case, I presume the CCTV camera in the queue at Sainsbury’s was mostly to discourage the staff from dipping into the till. It was a supermarket queue for God’s sake and therefore lots of witnesses. What is more of an indictment of today’s society is that no-one appears to have tried to apprehend him.
After reading the Polly Filler piece on Jackieboots, I hope that there are more Birmingham City supporters than Villa Supporters in Redditch.
Perhaps she should have stuck to her job as a toilet cleaner, but the ‘journalist’ could have asked searching questions about how to claim expenses.
126
Hallam seems safe LD
But Huhne will be an interesting one, despite your point.
What is the turnout in council elections compared to GEs? Especially GEs where there is a whiff of change in the air? There were some interesting and IMHO convincing posts about stay at home tories a few weeks ago, who may turn out this time.
We shall see! I find Martin is more often amusing than irritating, irrepsective of how right he may or may not be. If the tories put on 6-8% nationally, and the Lib Dems stand still or go back from 22%, You are relying on VERY strong “incumbency” factors are you not?
(Cue RodCrosby to say why the tories need 57% to be the largest party…
)
49, easterross “I could go on pointing out the differences north and south of Hadrian’s Wall but you get the drift.”
That’s a bit worrying, didn’t realise Scotland retained a claim to Northumberland or Cumbria… will the first act of an independant Scotland be to launch the third Bishops’ War?
Under this government there has been a noticeable change in the culture surrounding civil liberties, especially in the presumption from innocent until proven guilty to guilty unless you can prove you are innocent.
Recently a neighbour who is severely arthritic and in her mid 80s and receives pension credit, received a letter from the DWP informing her that she had to attend an interview under caution at their offices (12 miles away and no public transport) at a certain date and time as it had come to their knowledge that she was in receipt of undeclared income. There followed the usual caveat that she had a right to ask a solicitor to attend.
She asked me for advice and told me that she could not afford the taxi fares (£45) to the relevant office, nor solicitor. I took her and went with her.
Beforehand I asked if the allegation was true and she told me not but she did receive the odd small cheque from a niece towards the cost of a gardener to mow her lawn. Then she remembered that she had asked an acquaintance in the village to bank a cheque (from her niece)for her in the nearest town as the village post office was now closed where she used to carry out her banking.
At the interview, held by a very authoritarian, large and bossy woman, this old lady was cautioned in a manner that implied we are right and don’t you deny it.
I challenged the allegation and asked for its source. which was denied to us under the Data Protection Act. It then took over two hours to make the interviewer understand that a small gift from a relative did not equate to regular income. Indeed it was coming to the end of the day and the interviewer wanted the old lady to return on another day - regardless of the transport cost. At this, I insisted that the matter be finalised that day and that a letter was written withdrawing the allegation. There was no hint of an apology of the mistake made but an air of we shall be watching you.
Thus this all arose due to the culture of this government of encouraging people to report their neighbours and children to report their parents to the relevant authorities without any proof of any wrongdoing.
I spent several years in East Germany under the Stasi regime where people were blackmailed (and sometimes paid)into spying on their neighours and family - we do not seem to be so far away from that culture.
126. OGH.
Irony alert!
Castree, of course, was free for 21 years because the police lied in the Seventies.
131 - Not true.The tills were not visible in any of the CCTV evidence.
Two of the cameras were Sainsbury’s and one was operated by the Shopping centre
137 - Of course, but not relevant to the point.
He was convicted partly because of the incompetence of David Waddington.
Also irrelevant to the point.
“I might be wrong but I think that over the past half century the answer is zero.”
That’s a hell of a statistic, if true, and I know of no easy way of verifying or disproving it.
I suppose we could start by looking at the most spectacular gains in 1970 and 1979.
Cannock 1970
Clapham 1970
Ross & Cromarty 1970
Leicester SW 1970
Anglesey 1979
Brecon & Radnor 1979
Montgomery 1979
Birmingham Northfield 1979
Devon N 1979
You may well be right, Mike, since as well as the metastasizing anti-Tory bias in the electoral system there has been huge polarization along North/South and Urban/Rural lines.
Thirty or forty years ago, the Tories would have had councillors in Liverpool and Glasgow, and Labour in parts of the shires. You can’t say that now.
Someone should make a list of any other current Tory targets where they have no councillors…
The combined pb.c knowledge should come up with the answer in a few seconds.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/conservative-target-seats
tim @ 139 re police lying. You are right that it is a separate point but what safeguards do you propose against police or forensic staff planting DNA evidence?
And against their and the prosecution’s supressing DNA evidence that proves a suspect’s innocence?
A partial answer might be to encourage competing laboratories, open to both defence and prosecution. You’d think it might appeal to our market-obsessed politicians.
133. Remember what happened in Truro in 1979. David Penhaligon had only won the seat for the Liberals in Oct 1974 - and by just a few hundred votes.On the basis of what was happening nationally - a big increase in Tory vote and the Liberals falling back 4 - 5% - the seat should have been easily regained by the Tories. Despite this , the Liberals held it comfortably with a much increased majority!
126 Is there a market on Lib V Lab as a stand alone bet for the General.
140. The point also needs to be made that in many rural areas - at least until recently - party politics has rarely featured at local Govt level.In 1970 I lived in Pembroke - gained by the Tories that year without a single councillor in the constituency.In reality, of course, many of the ruling Independents were closet Tories!
139. T.I.M.: but not relevant to the point.
It’s entirely relevant.
141 Indeed, never mind police corruption, what about criminals, If I were a criminal and I knew DNA was some kind of panacea for the police I would be looking to plant lots of DNA everywhere. You know a few stray hairs, a bit of dust, maybe visit the local toilets with a few swabs (I am sure you get the picture). Now I am not a criminal but if I were planning a crime and I was up against people who have an almost religious belief in DNA then that is what I would do.
138 As ever you appear to have hugely detailed knowledge about the minutiae of a story.
Still doesn’t contradict my point that a conviction for assault in a supermarket queue should be easy to obtain from witnesses alone. Or that someone should have glassed him with a jar of pickled onions.
141 - Does the extension or reduction of a DNA Database change the necessity for safeguards?
The potential for the Police to plant evidence exists now, I presume, and if the Police want to fit someone up then gathering DNA from the person or his house is easier than breaking into the databse I guess.
Cigarette butts are the DNA source of choice amongst drug dealers who wish to muddy the waters.
142. Truro plus 6 others.
seat/majority
Berwick on Tweed, 73
Truro, 464
Isle of Wight, 2040
Isle of Ely, 2685
Inverness [from third place]
Cornwall North, 3856*
Devon North, 6721*
* = Liberal loss.
They also lost Montgomery, 3859, over and above the UNS forecast.
97.
“Any LD doubters should see the Coffee House….”
Someone given Martin Day a job clearing tables?
147 - Then your civil liberties point is aimed at Sainsburys and the shooping centre.
As I said, that is what much of the CCTV debate hinges around.
140.
“omeone should make a list of any other current Tory targets where they have no councillors…”
….and also those notional Tory targets where the Tories have been going backwards electorally in the past four years. I am pretty sure Lord Ashcroft knows where these are since the money doesn’t seem to be being spent in some of these latter places.
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152. Sounds like you know as well. Do tell..
142 - there is something of a pattern with Lib Dem seats. A very small number are held long term by LDs or predecessor parties.
The usual pattern is that when a seat is first gained it is by a small majority. At the second election the majority increases significantly. At subsequent elections the majority is eroded continually until the seat reverts to its previous party.
If you look at Lib Dem seats up and down the country this is a regular (though not universal) pattern. Thus seats where the Lib Dem incumbent won in 2005 for the first time are unlikely to fall in 2010.
151 If I recall it is you who bought up the man in Sainsburys, which from the start was a straw man argument, and has nothing to do with the CCTV debate. So to get away from your silliness. The Debate about CCTV is whether it is a cost effective deterent to crime in comparisson to substitutes such as more police or more or better street lighting. I believe home office figures show street lighting is cheaper and better
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/improved-street-lighting-cuts-more-crime-than-cctv-639912.html
155. Agree mostly with this, and have been saying so for a long time.
But in addition, the time of maximum vulnerability for the LibDems comes when an incumbent stands down…
And if the new incumbent holds on, the cycle starts again…
“So - Buy it now before literally the whole world buys it and every copy is sold out for ever and ever!”
We have a very good second hand charity book shop - How long will it take people to read and give away?
The usual pattern is that when a seat is first gained it is by a small majority. At the second election the majority increases significantly. At subsequent elections the majority is eroded continually until the seat reverts to its previous party.
Are you basing that theory entirely on the loss of Devon West,Guildford,Ludlow,Newbury and Weston Super Mare in 2005?
The problem is that New Labour saw Demolition Man and thought the bad guys won.
The CSI worldview - where everything is on an interconnected database with perfect data integrity - is their idea of heaven. It also fits with the concept of Taylorising the public professions, in this case the police. Once all you have to do to catch criminals is to run a query on the database, then any one on a minimum wage can do that. And they will be much more biddable - they will know their place and not argue with The Masters.
159 - no I am not. It broadly holds good across a lot of seats. North Norfolk was another example last time.
151 No, it’s aimed at you. You gave an example to illustrate why you thought that indiscriminate use of CCTV was justified. I gave my reasons for believing the example to be a poor one.
To tell the truth, I am not particularly exercised by the use of CCTV by private citizens and companies to protect private property, There are data protection laws, and in any case it seems to me that you should be able to install CCTV on your property if you like.
I am more concerned by the use of CCTV to monitor citizens going about their law abiding business in a public place. For one reason, I believe the law protects us relatively ineffectively from misuse of data by the State.
I am also opposed to any moves to make private operation of CCTV compulsory. There was a recent story that in parts of London, to obtain a late licence, pubs had to agree to install CCTV. I think this is bang out of order.
162 - “No, it’s aimed at you. You gave an example to illustrate why you thought that indiscriminate use of CCTV was justified.”
No I didn’t.I gave it to illustrate the point that the CCTV argument is largely a discussion about private property rights.
On the street use of CCTV I tend to agree with you and Voreas, there is little evidence that it deters general criminality.
It is of course useful in solving crimes once thay have happened.
Where the research shows it to be a deterrent is where it is specifically placed to deter premeditated (mainly property) crime.
159. Only Guildford and Ludlow really confounded the pattern.
But, one was a hyper-marginal decided by a few hundred votes, and in the other the impression was that the LibDem was not fully-focussed on being an MP….
In case any one is curious in a Stasi-like manner,I currently have windows open at cricinfo,pb.com,Betfair twice,Betdaq and my own forum.
Not true. As I said, NOrth Norfolk also confirmed it. YOu have to look also at the seats won by LDs in 2001 and where the majorities increased in those in 2005.
re 149 The Liberals in Devon North in 1979 had the possible impediment that on the Tuesday after the general election the MP defending the seat went on trial at the Old Bailey for conspiracy to murder.
Rod at 81:
In 1997 - very sure (though my agent wasn’t) - it seemed unlikely that we’d be exempt from the national trend, since I knew we’d worked harder than the Tories in the constituency.
In 2001 - fairly hopeful, but not as sure as in 1997 - can’t remember the details though.
In 2005 - about 65% sure. There was a queasy point during the count when my opponent pulled 1000 ahead (just the orde rthe boxes were opened), but by then we had results from comparable constituencies which Labour had held, so again I thought it unlikely we’d done worse.
162 -”I am also opposed to any moves to make private operation of CCTV compulsory. There was a recent story that in parts of London, to obtain a late licence, pubs had to agree to install CCTV. I think this is bang out of order.”
Thats an interesting one, because licensing authorities and the police have often,going back decades, demanded that a queue to get into a nightclub with a late licence has been required to have a CCTV camera covering it, for obvious reasons.
The research suggests that this sort of CCTV may indeed be more of a deterrent than the more general street cameras.
They are also the least likely to be stored unless there has been and incident, usually being wipedafter a couple of days.
I don’t think that anyone seriously considers this a step towards a NuLabJacquibootsPoliceState, or whatever the term is.
163 “I gave it to illustrate the point that the CCTV argument is largely a discussion about private property rights”
In your head it might be, As far as I and most people are concerned it is about how effective and cost effective it is as a deterrent as opposed to other measures and if those measures are more effective why does the government insist on CCTV? The logical conclusion is that the government likes the power that CCTV gives them over people.
143 Punter- Sadly not.I would dearly love to see a handicap LD v LAB or LD v OTHERS(not Conservative).
If the CONS do badly the Lib Dems do well but maybe not at the expense of Labour.When the CON juggernaut sweeps all before it all that the Lib Dems can hope for is that they are marginally spared via tactical voting and incumbency.Their third hope is that battered and bruised, they claw Seats back elsewhere.
In the ‘normal’ scenario where the Tories take 355 Seats, twenty of those Seats could easily be gains from LD.
Can the Lib Dems repair some of the damage at ‘others’ expense ?
Tim,
We could equally note that if Carstree hadn’t have been released after his earlier arrest, the crime wouldn’t have happened.
Accordingly, those of us who support the principle of not imprisoning for life anyone who’s ever arrested on suspicion of anything have to answer for his crime, I suppose.
Do you agree with releasing suspects when they aren’t charged with anything? Because that leads to releasing criminals for whom insufficient evidence to prosecute was presented. As Ken says, it’s a weighing up thing. How many innocent people do you sacrifice to ensure you get all of the guilty?
Nick Palmer - the Irish put biometrics on passports and it cost hardly anything at all - just a few million.
So pull the other one. And talk about what you know - the idea that a straightforward biometric passport can cost billions is dim and stupid.
The whole all embracing ID card infrastructure will need a massive database and cost billions not least because of the massive costs to all walks of society for the card reader machines and the telephone & internet links. A passport is just to get in and out of the country and tells people what the colour of your eye is and your fingerprint.
169 “The research suggests that this sort of CCTV may indeed be more of a deterrent than the more general street cameras”
If you are going to cite research, please provide links, otherwise I am sure most people will just assume you are making it up.
Also where is your evidence for
” because licensing authorities and the police have often,going back decades, demanded that a queue to get into a nightclub with a late licence has been required to have a CCTV camera covering it”
167. There was an amazing shot in the 1979 BBC results coverage of a dazed Thorpe stumbling down a totally deserted, wet and dimly-lit road in Barnstaple, supported by stout matrons on either side.
He was on his way to the count. It could have been to his hanging…
155. On the whole I tend to agree with you - though a few one term wonders do come to mind such as Bodmin (Feb 74), Leeds west (1983), Taunton (1997). Also Richard Wainwright lost Colne Valley in 1970 after a single term - though ,of course, he came back for several terms in Feb 74!
167 I pray for that to become repeated for Brown.
174 - Heres a summary.
Links to twelve different research studies at the bottom.
Enjoy.
http://ipvideomarket.info/report/is_public_cctv_effective
Personally I care a lot about freedom and civil liberty issues, it’s one of the main reasons I care about politics. But most people don’t, and it will never be a big vote winner. Most people are not interested of speaking up for the liberties of others, and only care when they realise there is nobody left to speak for their liberties when the Government come for them.
178 no don’t be lazy, find some specifics to help your case or else I and most people will rightly assume you are talking nonsense.
There is an appreciable chance of 7% UNS to the Conservatives from the Lib Dems and an excellent chance of a 6% swing.
That doesn’t even begin to express the horror of a reversion to 1983 type of numbers with the NATS also nipping away at LD.
168. Thanks Nick. I won’t ask what your thoughts are on next time…
RE 140.
Using this site:
http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/
A quick list of Councils where the Conservatives have no councillors seems to be (councils controlled by major parties are indicated):
Haringey - Lab
Islington - LD (minority)
Newham - Lab
Gateshead - Lab
Knowsley - Lab
Liverpool - LDm
Newcastle upon Tyne - LDm
Sheffield - LDm
Bolsover - Lab
Chesterfield - LDm
Derwentside - Lab
Durham - LDm
Easington - Lab
Oxford -
Wansbeck - Lab
Wear Valley -
Eilean Siar - Ind
Highland -
Midlothian - Lab + LD
Orkney - Ind
Shetland - Ind
West Dunbartonshire -
Caerphilly -
Carmarthenshire -
Ceredigion -
Gwynedd -
Merthyr Tydfil - Ind
Neath Port Talbot - Lab
181. It was 6.5% in 1979. See what happened @149.
FWIW, I doubt the national LD/Con “swing” will exceed 5%, but who knows?
“142. Truro plus 6 others.
seat/majority
Berwick on Tweed, 73
Truro, 464
Isle of Wight, 2040
Isle of Ely, 2685
Inverness [from third place]
Cornwall North, 3856*
Devon North, 6721*
* = Liberal loss.
They also lost Montgomery, 3859, over and above the UNS forecast.”
One thing that is different now though to the situation in 1979 is that the individual profile of the average LibDem MP is much lower.
Back in the 1970s there were far fewer Liberal MPs and so the ones that did exist - Beith, Penhaligan, Freud, Fat Cyril etc would have been on TV/radio more and had a higher national profile. Compare that to now where the average LibDem is similar to MPs from other parties. In the 1970s Liberal MPs were characters and symbals of local pride and so would have had far larger personal votes.
As to Conservative gains in constituencies with no Conservative councillors I can’t think of any, perhaps it might have happened in some rural area dominated by Independent councillors. Of course the Conservative victories of 1970 and 1979 were preceeded by several years of strong performances in local elections, as indeed would be a Conservative victory in 2010.
I think the Conservatives won Hayes and Harlington in 1987 without having any local councillors, but that was a Hold not a Gain.
In any case (Martin Day please note) the Conservatives have NO chance of gaining Hallam in 2010 unless Clegg defects to Labour, Hallam is probably now only about the fifth most likely Conservative constituency in South Yorkshire.
184-In 1979 there was no meat on the bone for the Tories to bite off.Plenty of meat this time !
175 An excuse to post a link to Peter Cook’s Trial Judge summing up at the Secret Policeman’s Ball
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyos-M48B8U&feature=related
genius, built on the actual Judge’s description of Norman Scott in his summation”“He is a fraud. He is a sponger. He is a whiner. He is a parasite. But, of course, he could still be telling the truth. It is a question of belief.”
Bearing in mind the issues of database accuracy, mission creep (to whom might the data be given in the longer run?) and ratcheting removals of civil liberty (”no, dear frog, don’t jump out - it’s only slightly hotter now” ), what is the actual NEED for this DNA database?
If someone is a suspect, take their DNA and find if there is a match. If they aren’t a suspect, you really, really shouldn’t try to convict on the basis of DNA evidence alone.
- Possible contamination
- Possible database errors
- Lack of understanding over probabilities (if most DNA matches are to “one in a million” and you convict on those grounds, you can safely say that assuming non-contamination and that the crime was committed by a UK resident, you’ve got one of about 60 or so Brits who are close enough to match. If there is no ancillary evidence, those aren’t “beyond reasonable doiubt” odds to me. Similar odds confusions lead to Sally Clark’s wrongful conviction)
From Dale:
“I do realise that Polly Toynbee doesn’t write the headlined which appear over her columns, but today’s is a Guardian classic…
SIR FRED’S JUST ONE OF MILLIONS TO DO BETTER UNDER LABOUR”
Hehehe.
188, whilst I concur entirely with the freedom-loving opposition to the DNA database, there is a simpler and obvious way to get the public onside.
“We can spend £20bn on a database, or £20bn on public services/tax cuts. Gordon wants the former. We [Tories/Lib Dems etc] want the latter.”
169 It is another brick in the wall: we are to be monitored, photographed and controlled while going about our lawful business.
Why should the State require a public house to video its own customers when there is no evidence of any lawbreaking? When it should be allowed to have a late licence under current legislation anyway?
191 - You’ll find that most place with a late licence have a camera covering the door.
Often it has a use later in the evening to check the street as staff are leaving.
Try working in a place where staff have been attacked as they exit.
Anyway, if you want the state to legislate to prevent it go ahead and make the case.
183. Thanks. Looks like Oxford is the only place where a Tory gain is conceivable. But they surely have councillors in the Abingdon bit of OXWAB?
And they presumably have some in the South Pembrokeshire bit of Carmarthenshire West?
Wait a minute…
Aberconwy is in Gwynedd, is it not? Unless Plaid or the LibDems pull a rabbit out of the hat, it looks like a Con gain…
With the launch of the Freedom Bill from the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives looking inside themselves to figure out where they exactly they stand on civil liberties, we are finally getting to a point where the opposition parties are going on the offensive.
Bring on the general election!
192. Tim. So do you support either 1) Holding onto DNA from suspects 2) A national DNA database?
The reason that civil liberties does not feature hugely in the public consciousness is simple- most people do not give a monkey’s about it!
If any “erosion” of civil liberties, human rights etc makes the country safer, as far as I can see, the public is happy to support it.
101 Phil, last saturday you were claiming that the Tories would end the nanny state attitude to drinking.
On Monday Grayling announced they would end 24 hour licensing.
195. philboy: most people do not give a monkey’s about it!
That’s because they haven’t learnt the lessons of Martin Niemöller’s poem.
And because we as a society (possibly as a species) have appalling judgement on risk.
193. Rod your knowledge of constituency geography is far greater than mine so I suspect you are correct. I was intrigued by the question of which council were ’sans Conservatives’ and found.
It was easy to convert (mainly copy & paste) the tables provided online to filter them so I thought I’d provide the information. Consequently I now have a table with all the councils listed (as of the date the site owner last updated them) on it and can filter them to some extent.
185. Possibly, but these things are hard to measure. After the Lib/Lab pact ended, I seem to recall that the Liberals were largely ignored by the media. 1979 was probably the last great “two-party” election…
Nowadays there is guaranteed three-way media coverage at all times. And it seems three-party politics is here to stay. Back in the 1970s it was a very different. The Liberals were a bit of a joke party, frankly, keeping a toe-hold in parliament only due to the personal efforts of a small rag-bag group of eccentrics…
195. philboy. As I said I think most people would support torturing terrorist suspects - phrase the question right -
“If it helped to prevent a major terrorist atrocity do you favour the use of torture (with no permanent ill-effects) on terrorist suspects?”
Doesnt make it right or even sensible though.
Should the DNA of victims of police incompetence, victims of mistaken identity, wrongful arrest and miscarriages of justice also be retained?
Should the DNA of children below the age of criminal responsibility be retained?
Should EVERYBODY’S DNA be retained? Because that’s what you’re getting at, T.I.M.
re 198. 1st paragraph - and found what seems a pretty good site……
194 - Support 2.
Undecided on 1.
“If any “erosion” of civil liberties, human rights etc makes the country safer, as far as I can see, the public is happy to support it.”
Too bad ‘the public’ is wrong.
I can’t believe that we are going for biometric anything.
Biometrics are still in their infancy and even one of the simplest forms, fingerprint analysis, is far from a a solved problem (even under lab conditions). When you start to scale fingerprint analysis 60 million, you are p###ing in the wind.
If you want a computer to read a finger print say for door entry to your home, you can put together a working system, due to the fact,
a) you can actually be overly cautious and reject any uncertain results (resulting in the owner having to have a key / code as a secondary method).
b) the task is to match a scanned finger print to 3-4 family members on record.
When we start to talk about use for nationwide biometrics and as the primary source of id, you are having to match a scan against a database of many millions and the matching needs to be near perfect.
Whatever people selling these systems try to tell you this kind of problem is solved, a quick look through the academic literature will tell you that they are talking bulls##t.
193
Though the list is only of councils where the Conservatives have zero councillors. There will be other councils where there are Conservative councillors but not in potentially winnable constituencies.
I don’t think that there are any Conservative councillors in York Central. Though I don’t expect a Conservative gain there.
There must be Conservative councillors in Lewisham but are they in Lewisham East or Lewisham West or both? Noth that I predict Conservative gains there either.
Were any of the Labour or LibDem gains of 1997 in constitencies where they had zero councillors?
205, aye I recall reading of a fairly low failure rate (half a percent or something like it). But with 60m people 0.5% equates to 300,000 failures.
And as Frankie Boyle keeps joking, you can’t exactly pop out to the shops for some new eyeballs and 10 fingers.
207 - Be very careful on even that, often when they talk about failure rates it is under lab condition where the recorded prints and scan to be tested are perfect (or only slightly damaged).
Many of the problems occur due to the actual process of scanning the fingerprints, be it in the collection of the data in the first place or when they scan your print to match against the database.
208 (cont) you can easily encounter “smudging” / blurring and a whole host of other problem when digital fingerprint scanners.
Through my work, I have had a fair insight into this, following some colleagues moving into this market and finding how poor the current technology really was. Needless to say they are working to improve this, but if you ask them if they think it can work the way in which politicians think it does, they will laugh you out of the room.
If I were a law abiding citizen, a North African, an Arab,an Iranian, or from the sub-continent, whether Muslim or otherwise,my major fear would be a breakdown of society in the wake of a huge terrorist attack on mainland UK.
If on the other hand I were an embryonic terrorist then I would be a big time defender of ‘civil liberties’.
206.
I think Labour did, but can’t recall where off-hand…
209, and let’s not forget that the digital information can be manipulated. It’s not like a physical photograph or a biro, (ie utterly immune to hacking or alteration through electronic means).
Apparently though the system will be 100% supersecure. Personally the government’s excellent record on keeping our data secure has me convinced.
196 Different issues. Last week I highlighted a Tory policy which seemed to be moving away from the nanny state idea that alcohol taxes should systematically be raised for some reason to do with the minority who drink in such a way that they become a social nuisance.
I must have missed the second announcement. Please be so kind as to direct me to it. I am of course prepared to oppose it if I disagree with it.
However it’s worth pointing out that we don’t in practice have 24 hour licensing, very few, mainly specialist, venues are licensed for 24 hours. What mostly happens is that some pubs use their flexibility to open to midnight or 1am on Friday and Saturday nights, or sometimes for special events like St George’s Day or pub beer festivals. This flexibility in licensing laws seems to me to be entirely reasonable and I think it would be a retrograde step to oppose it.
Re 183. Re-checking the spreadsheet I see I missed Blaenau Gwent for the ’sans Conservatives’ list which brings their total of councils without representation to 29. That is a quite favourable statistic in comparison to the Libdems (57) and worst of all Labour (99)
Given that there are 443 councils listed (including county councils)it gives us the surprising fact that the Labour Government are no longer represented in more than 20% of the country at local level?
Do we think people are actually buying this s##t,
Brown promises banking clean-up
Gordon Brown has reiterated his call for a clean-up of the financial system to ensure what he called “banking responsibility” in the UK and abroad.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7916215.stm
What I found particular scary was Gordo’s vision of the government making certain banks do certain jobs for them. NR to do mortgages, RBS to do small and medium businesses, a new government bank to do personal savings (which I thought was what we already had in NI&S!). There is one think stopping banks giving out stupid 125% 8x salary mortgages, but completely different soviet style state banks are only allowed to operate in certain parts of the market.
193 Aberconwy is not in Gwynedd; it is in Conwy. The councillors within the constituency are as follows:
Independent 10
Plaid Cymru 8
Conservative 6
Labour 4
Lib Dem 1
211
Putney? (or did they already have councillors in Roehampton?), Harrow West?, Southgate?
Actually it could well have been Brent North as the Conservatives did very well in Brent at the 1994 locals.
215. Didn’t he promise something similar to do with Parliament and Democracy once upon a time (think Hain, Alexander, Harman, Smith, Darling, Balls, Cash For Legislation etc etc etc)?
218 - Well the spin I heard on BBC and Sky was this is his “Vision”, but it is a long term vision that can’t happen overnight. Well we know what that means, GE, vote for Gordo and get “fair, reformed, nice, local, banks” vs “do-nothing gready fat cat banker loving Tories”.
213 - PhilC, I know you’re a CAMRA man.
Here’s Roger Protz (And yes I know about his revolutionary past..)
Tory call to end ‘24-hour licensing’
Grayling calls for
‘more robust rules’
If you thought the pub trade and brewing industry couldn’t face any worse threats under the present Labour government — here come the Tories!
Tory home affairs spokesman Chris Grayling said in a speech on 24 February that his party, if returned to power, would be “more robust about licensing rules”.
“There is now a strong case to end Labour 24-hour drinking regime,” he added. “It has not created a continental cafe culture — it has just made things worse in many town and city centres.”
Mr Grayling did not say precisely how the Tories would change the current legislation. This is understandable, as Mr Grayling does not understand the law he wishes to change.
There is no such thing as “24-hour licensing”. Owners of licensed premises can now choose flexible hours within a 24-hour cycle. This means pubs can choose to stay open longer at weekends to suit the demands of their customers. Apart from airport bars, I don’t know of any pubs that open for 24 hours. The only purveyors of alcohol that do open 24 hours are supermarkets.
If Chris Grayling did some research, he would discover that many pubs that extended their hours when the new law came in soon reverted to more restricted hours when their trade did not increase. Most of the pubs listed in the Hertfordshire section of the Good Beer Guide still close at 3pm and open again from 6 to 11pm: I choose Herts because that’s where I live, but it is not untypical. No pub owner will stay open during the afternoon or the wee small hours if nobody walks through the doors.
Tony Payne, chief exectuive of the Federation of Licensed Victuallers, put it well when he responded to Mr Grayling: “If he has concerns about 24-hour drinking he should first find out how many pubs has 24-hopur licences. It is very few. Most 24-hour licences are held by supermarkets. If there are problems at premises, there are already powers to deal with them.”
The simple fact, which Chris Grayling ignores, is that such problems as binge drinking and city-centre drunkenness have diminished since the law changed. Before the change, when all city-centre pubs had to close at 11pm, there was often mayhem. Chris Grayling ignores the improvements in order to jump on a bandwagon created by the Daily Mail to pillory the pub trade for problems it is not responsible for.
The Tories are coming…be afraid, be very afraid.
213. Phil C - I missed it to but apparently according to the BBC he did say something that suggest the Conservatives could change the licensing laws. Although he didn’t say they will change them.
Mr Grayling also said there was a “strong case” to end the 24-hour licensing changes: “It has not created a continental cafe culture - it has just made things worse in many town and city centres.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7905491.stm
“Mr Grayling did not say precisely how the Tories would change the current legislation. ”
QED.
216. OK, thank-you. I knew local knowledge would be better than mine…
219. Looks as if Brown has watched The League of Gentlemen, local banks for local people.
171 I would think to a large degree yes. If the Tories did gain 20 seats from the Lib Dems that would imply an exceptional performance from them nationally sufficient to overpower Lib Dem incumbency that is very strong past the top ten Tory LD targets. The other implication would likely be Labour being massacred. Given the LD’s gained over ten seats in 2005 from them provided they remain at 18% or above nationally they should make at least five gains from Labour with no sweat at all, with ten or more quite plausible. Ergo LD’s at 45 looks attractive as a start base. I can’t see any Lab gains from LD presently.
I see sky news are doing they SAVE Gordon propaganda,and I ask as any one else noticed Mr Brown been in the news more in the last two days while Mr Cameron is grieving,’PATHETIC’
215 I think by now most people are well aware with Brown it is a daily bunch of meaningless vaguely populist phrases that he spouts. They just assume he talks nonsense and that nothing meaningful will happen.
225 Punter. I would especially love it if Betfair put up a few ‘Swing’ markets and would be a most vigorous player.
Silly to get dogmatic,let alone mediaeval at this stage but suffice to say I am the third most bearish punter regarding Lib Dem chances on pb.com……only behind Martin Day and ‘Ave It ‘09.
181.
“There is an appreciable chance of 7% UNS to the Conservatives from the Lib Dems and an excellent chance of a 6% swing.”
One of the joys of having a (not very political) Tory in a marginal constituency as one’s best friend is the intelligence which seeps through about ’sensible’ Tory strategy in marginal Tory-held seats. They are not discounting at all the possibility of a Lib Dem victory ‘against the head’, especially where there is a seriously-sized labour vote to squeeze.
227 No keep him in the news, people just laugh at him now, all he ever seems to do is give the banks tonnes of money then promise to sort out the very same banks, then the banks tell him where to go and a month or two later he gives the banks more money and promises to sort them out and on and on. It is just a shame he is such an expensive joke.
228 If you mean national vote swing % markets I think the chances of that for the LD’s from most Bookies are nil. Lab v Con will fight a single General Election. The LD’s effectively will fight 100 By-Elections. While the two political T-Rexs slug it out they will be picking up the leftovers. National vote share only becomes meaningful really for them below 18% or above 25%.
URW — I’ve been buying “CAMERON ONLY” on betfair’s “Next General Election - Party Leaders” market at 3.05.
Do you think I should build a big position here at that price, or wait? or…
231-No.I mean Seat swing.That is far less complicated.
230 No one was laughing on Wednesday,thought Brown spoke from the heart.
232 Phillipe Magnan. I gave that a mention TWO threads ago at least !
Hmmm.The thing about that market is that it is desperately weak and by and large you have to make all your own running.
I Layed you your 3.0 yesterday but not out of conviction.
Can you not see your problem ? Unless you are prepared to give something away you won’t get matched.
234 I didn’t, to me it looked like rehearsed platitudes, and Brown hates PMQs, and it was a wonderful opportunity for Labour to try and bury bad news - see Mandelsohn, so all in all knowing Brown and Labour as I have come to over the last 12 years I am sure they saw Ivan Cameron’s death as a brilliant opportunity to present Brown as a vaguely normal human being reinforced by people such as yourself and like September 11th a chance to get rid of some bad news.
233/236.
This is very marginal but it is important.Don’t tell anyone else,Phillipe !
If it happened that Gordon Brown were to be assassinated or died of natural causes the market would be voided.
Take my word on this one….Betfair have to protect their own integrity.
237 You are just sick in the head, and see the worst in everything with your vile hatred of Labour, this says it all, one needs to know about your comments.
Someone also called me at 3.05 and @ 3.1 yesterday or today.
After you matched my 3.0 offer, someone matched my 127$ at 3.05…
On 24-Feb-09, someone matched my 30$ at 3.1.
Seems a value bet to me, for the odds of Brown going out of the political field to “spend more time with his family” before the next GE seems to me higher that 33%…
235 - Wednesday the man spoke well.
Business as usual now though…..
239. Hatred of Labour is never vile but always rational well-grounded.
On the other hand, Brown did make a decent fist of Wednesday but, I suspect, only because of his own experience of the death of a child and not from any basic sense of humanity towards another human being in distress.
I rather think he subscribes to the Aneurin Bevan view of Tories both collectively and individually.
239,DEZ,don’t you think that the labour party are sick,the last two days Brown has not been out of the news,while mr cameron is grieving.
242 - Bevins description of the Tories as “lower than vermin” was aimed at those who voted against the establishment of the NHS.
Listening to Cameron talk about the NHS care given to his son, I think he might have some strong words for those who opposed its existence.
Any news on Polls in the Sundays? Any idea what happenend to the second ComRes for February ?
Should we be on Poll Watch ?
Completely off topic:
I have found an excellent feature on the Michael Thrasher site which allows you to compare the local Government political landscape map year by year (1974-2007). Knowing how some think there is significance in relation to the Local results and the GE result I wonder what they would make of the comparison of 1997 to 2007 (pity they have not done 2008 yet)
Hopefully this link will show the two years without needing to reset anything?
http://www.research.plymouth.ac.uk/elections/elections/mapping/step_thru_1974-2007.html
244,Tim ,I live in the real world and I can tell you ,old boy,that round where I live,’lower than vermin’would be very soft abuse used at the labour party.
Re 246. Oh well apparently not……
239 And you are just deluding yourself that Brown is an even remotely decent human being, and true to form when I shine a bit of light on how your party acts you start namecalling, why not call me a racist while you are at it. Remember Labour and Brown have form, Labour as I say September the 11th, Brown using troops during the tory party conference, accusing Cameron of politicking over baby P, I am sure there are many more examples where this man has reached truly low moral levels, including on a daily basis not taking responsibility for the damage and hardship he has caused to this country.
243 No I don`t.
I have some sympathy with Mathew Paris comments in the Times the other day, that PM`Q S and parliament and life should try to continue on as normal even through personal private grieve.
However thought Haque and Brown were excellent and for a short time, party point scoring, can stand aside for some empathy of such a grevious personal loss such as that of a child.
230 Dez, Wednesday Brown spoke well and I believe from the heart.
The use of that short speech by Labour since to try to get sympathy for Brown and create space for him to be heard isn’t unnatural in politics; it does however cheapen the gesture somewhat. From some follow up comments I’ve heard you would think Brown suffered a tragedy on Wednesday.
Tim’s use of Cameron’s sons death in post 244 for a cheap political point demonstrates the reason for the discomfort.
249 Why would I call you a racist, I have no ideas on your views .
However going around calling people not a decent human being, shows the arrogance about yourself.
250 Ok Dez if you are concerned about the 30 minute suspension of PMQ’s how critical are you of the Government adding around 10 additional days to the Parliamentary recesses in the past two years?
Personally, I think those who are critical of the 30 minute suspension are just being petty.
250,Dez,your certainly right when you say life must continue as normal,but brown and labour are doing more to get in the news in the last couple of days than normal,while mr cameron is away.
246. Very interesting, but shouldn’t you be comparing 1994 with 2007?
251 Ted I honestly believe that people who have suffered a similar trauma have greater understanding.
Voreas, GeoffH and co are the worst pots calling kettles around. Though I have no time for Gordon Brown or his politics, I remember that you hate the sin, not the sinner. SO GeoffH, Voreas etc are to be pitied, rather than despised, and certainly not hated in the manner that they would seem to direct towards Tim and co.
I worry slightly about the mentality of some posters on here. Tim’s posting didn’t even mention Ivan Cameron’s death - the Cameron quote he was using came a long time before young Ivan’s death - he was pointing out, Ted how Cameron might be on what he felt was the ‘right’ side of criticising enemies of the NHS.
255. RodCrosby: shouldn’t you be comparing 1994 with 2007?
Probably 1996 with 2009, but that would be difficult at the moment.
254. Johnno. That might have something to do with their policies. I dont think you can claim that they planned this media presence after the death of Ivan Cameron. Nor, it has to be said, is the media presence particularly good for Brown and Labour. We were always going to get bank bailout IIb. It represents a significant gift of money to RBS and eventually to other banks. I do suspect that they were using Goodwin’s pension as cover for the (at a guess) £20-30 billion they have just gifted to RBS. But, with Gordon looking increasingly stupid - “legal action” (in a couple of months, I can see Cameron asking “so what legal action have you taken Gord?”), I think that piece of spin has backfired.
252 Calling people a racist is a caricature of labour supporters trying to close down debate by using the R word, for example mentioning Immigration 5 years ago I would instantly have been called a racist(until the public started getting worried by unlimited immigration, when all of a sudden it was ok to talk about it). Instead you have decided to call me sick in the head as I question the motives of your lets face it morally dubious party leadership. Brown lies on a daily basis to the British public(remember no more boom and bust, best placed, no extraordinary rendition, dodgy dossier etc, etc) these are not the actions of a decent human being or a decent party. I fail to see how stating the truth makes me arrogant.
253 jsfl.
I wasn`t unduly concerned just had some sympathy with Parris comments.
Thought it was a dignified occasion.
Similar to John Smith death but politics and what next continues.
257 I just love the irony of Wage Slave worrying about the mentality of some posters. very amusing.
255. Or perhaps 1976 to 2007 (from the Tories perspective)…
What has happened to the Tories in the North?
banished, never to return…
260 You said Brown saw the death of a child as a great oppurtunity.
If you don`t think that is sick, then take a deeper look in the miror at yourself.
255. I’m not sure. I accept the point. However, I don’t necessarily think that a like for like approach in the way are inferring is applicable. It’s more a case of comparing two snapshots to see what the relative change was (just as you could compare polls today with the GE result of 2005).
Given that the local elections work on a 4 year cycle (am I right in thinking that?) then if you were to make such a like for like comparison then presumably 1995 would be the relevant year rather than 1994?
I don’t think it actually matters that much?
264 I do think it is sick which is why I don’t believe he is a remotely decent human being.
257. Uh? And just what rattled your cage?
Labour IS the sin; a collective and not an individual. You may disagree with my thoughts about Brown but you’re not entitled to [deliberately?] misinterpret them.
And as for Tim, If you’re going to comment on another poster’s contribution concerning a historic Labour figure then you could at least spell his name correctly. Especially as it was correct in my note.
Now altogether, ANEURIN BEVAN but not ERNEST BEVIN. Got it?
267.
Nurse! MedIcation please.
266 Your just blighted by party predujice can`t see any humanity in your political opponents.
Sad realy.
261. I not so sure of that. That’s why I’d like to see the 2008 map. If I remember a number of those northern grey areas have now turned blue. In any case there is five times the blue in the North now as there was in 1997.
One could just as easily ask what has happened to the Libdems in the south in comparison to the mid nineties maps?
268. Finally Tim you admit your need for help. Well acknowledgement of your problems is a big step forward. Well done!
263,how wrong could you be,bradford council,con and lib dem run,doing a good job in my view in very difficult times,conservatives increased councillors at last council elections
266/269. Voreas/dez. dez is saying that it is sick that you believe that Gordon could think that. Anyway, this isnt an argument that either of you can win - for it depends on the state of mind of Gordon, which unless either of you have a superior insight into his mind, is pointless. (I don’t think we can accept “He’s human” or “he has form” as an answer.)
dez should, of course, be aware that Labour and Gordon have form - 9/11 being the most obvious example.
voreas should be aware that the actions of spin doctors may not be generalisable, and the personal motivations of Gordon Brown, especially with regard to the death of child, are unknowable.
269 Not at all I know there are decent people in the Labour Party, such as Frank Field and John Cruddas seems a nice enough bloke, however the New Labour project has destroyed most of the soul of your party and most Labour activists are disgusted in their heart of hearts at what has happened(for example Bryan Gould). It is sad for the country(and probably your party) that when frank field thought the unthinkable in 1998 that Blair didn’t sack Brown rather than Field.
I see
William Hill Politics has got the Fred Goodwin pension market up online - only the prices are a lot tighter than what I got yesterday. It’s now 3/1 that it will “be publicly announced before 31st Dec 2009 that Fred Goodwin is to receive a reduced pension?” and 2/9 that it won’t. Given I’m on at 6/1 I could take the no position and make a certain profit.
274,voreas,totally agree.
273 Ok fair enough, it would do labour posters good to never mention Brown’s address again as doing so just makes them look like they are trying to make political capital out of the situation.
263 More a case of falling back in Northern Metropolitan Boroughs, rather than the North generally. The Metropolitan Boroughs (but not Greater London) have seen a long term movement against the Conservatives, as the middle classes have migrated from them.
275. Mike, have you heard if theres going to be a poll coming out tonight? People were on here yesterday reporting that they were being polled by YouGov. Iknow it wouldn’t be the Sunday Times poll, but perhaps another paper has commisioned a one of poll?
264.
“take a deeper look in the miror at yourself.”
You are assuming, of course, that the mirrors in the Voreas household return images!
280 That was actually funny, I am shocked!!
274.
“decent people in the Labour Party, such as Frank Field and John Cruddas ”
Frank Field is intellectually and politically highly-astute. His personality, as reported by many who have had to deal with him on any regular basis, leaves a lot to be desired.
256 Dez, I agree, I thought Brown was genuine and like many posters on here also it thought back to loss of child, sibling or parent, friends or relatives.
That is what has made the use of genuine emotion in a more calculated fashion afterwards a bit cheapening. It’s already used as a defence of Gordon when any part of his, IMHO, very complex character is attacked.
In comparison few Tory posters on here have commented on what has been revealed about Cameron’s character in terms of political advantage. The press comment has been around how his son’s illness affected his political views with glimpses into the personal.
267.
“just what rattled your cage”
Your contribution:
“Hatred of Labour is never vile”
but I must admit lumping you together with Voreas might, upon reflection (sic), be unkind.
282 He seems unafraid to tell the truth about where problems lie and will come to the correct remedies as far as I can see, and frankly if he doesn’t get on with his colleagues, good on him.
259.
“so what legal action have you taken Gord?”
Totally agree Ken. Brown is in a hole on that one and has called in the JCBs.
284,well I’am lumping you with Tim and that’s is unkind
285.
It is not just his ‘colleagues’ (sic). The words ‘cold’ and ‘fish’ if applied to Filed are an insult to marine life.
287.
You are a lot closer to Tim than I am, Jonno, but even closer to Voreas. Angels and pinhead territory. Not that I’m nominating Voreas for the angel, like.
284 and I thought we were starting to relate and everything.
This 2nd YouGov poll that some have reported taking part in might be a private one if it doesn’t appear in the next few days. Wouldn’t be the first time in recent months that has happened.
274. “It is sad for the country(and probably your party) that when frank field thought the unthinkable in 1998 that Blair didn’t sack Brown rather than Field.”
Never a truer word.
288 So what, I don’t want to be mates I want an honest (as can be) politician.
Rod Crosby, if you are still out there, in some ways if there was a map that most closely aligned to the 2007 map in Conservative terms It would be the 1987 map. Of course the 1987 map has far more red on it and a fair bit less yellow mainly in the North.
291. Politics Home haven’t got something in the pipeline have they?
Totally off topic and unrelated to the hurly burly above. Can I point out a nasty story that I suspect might turn very ugly. GE has cut its dividend and is expected to lose its AAA rating.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aK7AYi8xovME
GE is an enormous firm and its finance arm has generated vast profits in the upturn. I’ve always wondered how they would fare in a downturn. Obviously lots of other people have doubts too - with CDS on GE Capital debt costing 715 basis points.
re 291. The YouGov poll might actually be a BPIX survey. Fieldwork for the latter is done by the former and we have not had one in the MoS for some time.
297.I also noticed that it was quite a high number of PB.com regulars that seemed to have been polled by YouGov this week too, this despite the fact it seems to have been for two different polls.
On the topic of the PMQ’s that never was a thoughtful piece by Matt D’Ancona. I don’t think it’s been linked before (apologies if it has)?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/matthewd_ancona/4885300/The-tribute-to-Ivan-Cameron-was-the-opposite-of-a-Diana-moment.html
afternoon all,and a good thread as usual Morus. On the question of LibDem incumbency, I bow to the greater knowledge of others and sadly I do not expect Nick Clegg to lose his seat because he is the party leader.
However I would ask Rod Crosby in just how many of the seats the LibDems and Conservatives are notionally defending from one another are the pre 2010 seats largelly unchanged? An MP is not an incumbent if more than 35% of his constituents are shifted in from a neighbouring seat which may have voted in an entirely different way.
I looked at the list of Tory free councils and noted that some are still independent run (in Scotland) where certain well known independent councillors are or have been activists in the local Conservative association. In how many councils are they LibDem or Labour free? For example Labour hold both Aberdeen city westminster seats but in Aberdeenshire council which completely circles the city of Aberdeen (except on the seaboard) there is not a single Labour councillor.
The Tories may not have councillors in the city of Manchester but how many of the surrounding councils are Tory controlled? When did the Tories last hold Manchester or Newcastle seats at Westminster?
By the way there is a Tory council foothold in Glasgow once more and in 2011 that is likely to increase because the City of Glasgow Tory Associations are getting stronger.
I would caution my LibDem “friends” to prepare themselves for completely unexpected losses as indeed we Tories will be saddened by easy gains on paper not won on the ground. New boundaries have a habit of throwing up lots of surprises.
A surprisingly amusing and insightful piece from Melissa Kite as well on the topic that perhaps will plague Labour for the next month or so.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/4885398/Royal-Mail-A-part-privatised-utterly-wrecked-postal-service.html
126. Mike Smithson.
The number of Sheffield Councillors is irrelavant to the prospects of Nick Clegg. The Liberal Democrats are in trouble if they have to use the councillors to defend Clegg!
I believe Sheffield Liberal Democratsfauilure to oppose Labour, could actually create problems for the LD’s and the Liberal Democrats should not be so arrogant to think that Local Issues will surplant National Interests when chosing a new Government. Rather than helping the LD’s an anstitue electorate will probably laugh at the dodgy two horse bar graphs and the like. The UNS on Baxter has been adjusted to factor in the so-called LD incumabcy affect. Otherwise the LD’s would probably be on next to nill seats.
I believe the Liberal Democrats to be doomed at the next election and seats like Eastleigh will fall to the Tories like butter melts when a blow-torch is applied.
The persistent attempt to try and shout down what i say about LD prospects is extremeley diingenuis as the points are not mathematically based or subject to any such scrutiny - LD incumbancy is a myth. It is my opinion you are saying something that is no better than a two horse bar graph and i laughed my head off the other day when SeanT called your bluff and you declined a bet with him!
You talk about putting money where your mouth is but you chickened out straight away when a serious bet was offered. Before you try offering me a Bet - I say no because i cannot afford it, whatever the result might be.
The Tories have improved their campainging in the last few to such an extent they perform 5% better in Marginal Seats than the National Polls suggest. This wipes out any LD safety cusion of (Incumbancy) and will mean curtasins for many LD’s.
Sheffield Hallam has 45% redrawn bounadries by the way!
“Gordon Brown has launched an attack on the banking chiefs he holds responsible for the UK’s recession. During a speech to Labour Party activists, the Prime Minster described some of the country’s banking practices as indefensible and blamed city executives for getting them into ‘this mess’.”
How’s that for delusional?
300. Easteross it is up there in another post but the tally seems to be Conservatives 29 Libdems 57 and Labour 99.
299 - Very thoughtful, though am disguted by this bit
“This seals the deal for Cameron,” in the astonishing phrase of one seasoned [Labour] party strategist. “It makes it impossible for us to argue that he is not tough enough to deal with the recession. We can’t attack him as a weakling. And it reminds people of what they felt when he was elected leader – that he is different, that he is the kind of Tory they might quite like.” A ministerial source told me that the print media’s coverage of Ivan’s death had been excessive and “not fair” to the Government – as if there were an impartial, politically balanced way to report the death of a small boy.
The Tweets for today’s coml is full of people reposting Chris Huhne mentioning Tom Wolfe’s “A liberal is a conservative who’s been arrested by the police”
If you have no idea what i’m talking about, http://search.twitter.com/search?q=coml will help you find people who are there and what’s being talked about now.
300 see 226 and 232. I really think you are overdoing to WRT Lib Dems. Even if they are badly hit in Scotland they’d probably only drop back to where they were in 2001 and they have scope for gains from Labour elsewhere in the UK. 18% PV is the key figure for them as it is only once they drop below that does their incumbency start to be overriden in a very substantial way.
297. I thought about that as well. If its a poll for BPIX/MoS then chances are they would have asked questions like;
Which animal best describes Gordon Brown;
Bear
Worm
Rat
fly
Other random animal that has no relationship to politcs what-so-ever.
“The Tories may not have councillors in the city of Manchester but how many of the surrounding councils are Tory controlled”
The Conservatives hold Trafford and Bury, and have substantial representation in Salford.
“When did the Tories last hold Manchester or Newcastle seats at Westminster?”
They lost their last seats in 1987. Manchester, Liverpool, and Newcastle have long since ceased to be Conservative/Labour battlegrounds, and the Conservatives could easily win a majority of 100 without coming close to winning a seat in any of those cities.
re 300. I’m doing a piece for early next week on how many seats the Tories are going to get in Scotland.
“I hope that even now the Cabinet will realise that when we record the biggest losses of any government in British history, there should be some recognition of that in the pension fund,” Mr Brown said
302. Thats quite unfair to Mike S. A man of his prominence would have to tie up hundreds of pounds per thread if he had to accept bets on his commentry. In addition its all most impossible to enforce these bets on an anonymous national website.
What’s beyond doubt is that we don’t know how the Lib Dems will perform because there is no modern precident for the party to be
- defending this many seats in total
- this many against serious challenge
- a serious nationalist threat
- to be defending so many seats against the recipients of a national landslide.
All Mike has done is set out a list of very good reasons to think it may not be as bad as UNS suggests.
I’m pretty sure that the mega political poll I did for YouGov a few days ago doesn’t close until mid March though I might have been having a senior (not Mark) moment!
306 - yes “#modernliberty “A liberal is a conservative who has been arrested by police” seems to be the tweet-de-jour, but I lost all respect for Chris Huhne when he justified barring Geert Wilders.
My take on Wilders and the Westboro Baptis Church: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/2/25/185639/632/866/701875
Well done to Anthony Barnett and Henry Porter for pulling off a great event. The only downpoint for me was realising that Cory Doctorow doesn’t really wear a red cape and goggles, or live in a hot air balloon in the blogosphere
(If this doesn’t make sense to you, see http://xkcd.com/239/ and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cory_Doctorow )
309 It is startling, though, when you look at council representation from 1978, and see (IIRC) 45 Conservatives on Manchester City Council, 30 on Newcastle, and 25 on Liverpool.
300.Very good point Easterross. The boundaries around my way have changed regularly over the last 20 years, I am expecting to see both Labour and the Libdems do markedly worse up here than their 2005 GE result would indicate.
312 Although, ducking a bet with the pb.com Poster of the Year did seem a bit, well, yellow…
310 Mike I await it with interest as no doubt will the other regular Scots posters.
302.
“like butter melts when a blow-torch is applied.”
The reasoning behind your need to share your preferred method of lubrication with us is not obvious.
Tennis tonight: Rochus to beat Korolev, 2.35ish. Korolev is yet another Russian with no patience, who will pull the trigger for the big shots at all sorts of inappropriate times, and make lots of errors. Rochus has had great results recently (better than Korolev’s), beating Fish and Querrey with a newly effective return game, as well as a resurgent Koubek (Rochus’ record against lefties is abysmal, so that’s a great win for him). His crafty clay court style is almost guaranteed to annoy Korolev.
It’s no certainty - in particular the worry is Korolev’s strong second serve return, where Rochus is weak. However, good value nevertheless imo.
test
318 see 307.
315 Can it be reversed ever? They have now bounced back in some Cities eg Sunderland, Cardiff or Birmingham where they were largely or wholly wiped out in the 90’s.
299.
“in his Christmas card to Mr Brown – the front of which showed the Cameron family – the Tory leader wrote words to the effect of: “from the props”.”
Just as long as there were no other rugby allusions!
That Ancona piece was reflective in that it made clear that Brown for all his other faults has preferred to keep his kids out of the public eye. The BlairCameron approach has always been more practical or cynical depending on how you choose to view it.
320 Andrew - after your triumphs last night, I’m on Rochus at 2.48 with Betfair.
323.
In other interviews Cameron has made it clear he wasn’t prepared to hide Ivan away because of his disability. Show one, show all; neither practical nor cynical in my view. Just honest.
I was having a debate with Yokel the other day about how much the Right controls the GOP. Well, currently CPAC is going on, one of the highlights of the year for Republicans. Events include:
“New Challenges in the Culture War”
“The Key to Victory? Listen to Conservatives”
“Healthcare: The Trainwreck Ahead”
“Sarah Palin Unplugged, sponsored by Media Malpractice: How Obama Got Elected”
“Will Congress Take Your Guns?”
“Defender of the Constitution Award, Recipient: Rush Limbaugh”
“Media in the Obama Era: Is Journalism Dead?”
“Franken & ACORN: How Liberals are Destroying the American Election System”
“Youth for Western Civilization Inauguration Reception”
The last one particularly cracks me up. I’d comment on it but I’d be breaking Godwin’s Law.
319 thats quite a non-sequitor. Anyone would think you have a grubby little mind.
309
This is something that always makes my blood boil. I have family that live in bury and trafford and when I visit them I’m told and feel like I’m in Manchester.
Yet the BBC and labour would have us believe there are no tories in Manchester. Piss take.
322 The Conservatives were able to win Birmingham outright in the past, although that isn’t likely now. But, they have certainly made a reasonable comeback there, and it must have helped that the rock-solid Sutton wards are included in the Council, so there was always a critical mass of Conservative support, even in the worst years.
319, 323 There you go back to your normal standard of comedy. i.e not remotely funny, I knew it wouldn’t be long. The long winter nights must fly in the Slave household.
“255. Or perhaps 1976 to 2007 (from the Tories perspective)…
What has happened to the Tories in the North?
banished, never to return…
by RodCrosby February 28th, 2009 at 4:04 pm ”
I see Rod subscribes to the BBC view that the ‘North’ consists solely of Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle.
For Rod’s information in 2008 the Conservatives received more votes than Labour in Greater Manchester as a whole and also topped the poll in all five West Yorkshire councils. Crewe also is in the North.
“Sheffield Hallam has 45% redrawn bounadries by the way!”
Actually less than 30% redrawn, not that redrawing helps the Conservatives as the new areas are just as LibDem dominated as the parts now removed.
Give it up Martin, the Conservatives are not going to win Hallam. Even their candidate last time agrees - he’s standing at the next election in Penistone & Stocksbridge.
As the Conservatives have made no attempt to get a candidate for Hallam yet why don’t you apply?
326.
““Sarah Palin Unplugged”
Who brushed up the sand?
302.
“The persistent attempt to try and shout down what i say about LD prospects is extremeley diingenuis as the points are not mathematically based”
You’re only saying that because you’ve been told the other posters have their socks and mittens on!
If Lib Dem incumbency were not a myth there would never be any Lib Dem MPs in a general election. The country is covered in areas where there is a Lib Dem MP in one seat and next door the Lib Dems are a poor third in a demographically similar situation. What is the reason for this if not incumbency of an MP who knows what they are about?
331 How do you see Sheffield Central. Clegg could surely send everyone from Hallam to help.
I can’t believe Obama has removed Churchill’s Bust from the Oval Office, you frankly can’t get a much more humiliating snub to the British people.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/4884219/Barack-Obama-must-preserve-the-special-relationship.html
The special relationship is kaput, Brown sucking up to Obama without even the figleaf of the special relationship, now just looks totally pathetic.
314. From the daily kos blog;
“We have laws that not only prohibit incitement to racial hatred (which I support) but incitement to religious hatred (which, as a religious person, I abhor).”
I’m confused. Do you support the laws or racial hatred? Do you abhor the laws or religious hatred?
OT.
At the Conservative Councillors’ Association annual conference today, party chairman Eric Pickles is urging all present to “get in touch with their inner Tory”.
I cannot personally comment on this subject without making those present blush but how does Eric plan to liberate his own ‘Tory within’? Six months living off the fat of the land?
337
WTF are you talking about?
Its the first time in 20 years that Sheffield Hallam isn’t being listed in members and activists mailings as a recipient for outside help. Sheffield Central is being pushed instead.
Doubtless Martin will pop up to say thats because Clegg is DOOMED
However hallam has already vaulted the biggest hurdle in LD land. Its been handed successfully from one incumbant to another. In addition the Council group has matured.
The original majority administration for the LD’s fell apart and was booted out after only 3 years of control. An all to common story. What is less common is they pulled them selves back and have retaken Majority Control from labour as well as finally shifting the last Tories. Part of learning to use power is to have lost it.
They are having a smoother ride second time round as a much more battle hardened and experienced operation.
I’d put good money on Sheffield having TWO Lib Dem Mp’s by 2015
332.
This is SO scary. Less coherence than John Prescott on his best day ever.
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2008/09/sarah-palin-unplugged
334 Punter
I would make the LibDems slight favourites at the moment in Sheffield Central. I also think they will send all their activists there, not just those from Hallam but from throughout Sheffield.
The LibDem candidate in Central is their leader on Sheffield council whereas their candidate in Penistone/Stocksbridge is a loser from York and they don’t even have a candidate yet in Heeley (where they were also ahead of Labour in May 2008).
The LibDem controlled Sheffield council seems to be generally well thought of at present. How the Central result goes will largely depend on who gets the blame for the recession and the heavy local job losses - the LibDem council or the Labour government.
341 Is Stockbridge a Lib Dem target even in theory? Heeley would be surprising even if Central is the main target. You’d have thought they’d be nurturing it as one for the future possibly.
340 - Has she been taking lessons from Gordo? Garbled stat production from crib sheet that doesn’t fit or answer the question delivered at a million miles an hour.
This is deeply alarming. Griffin has made them worryingly organised it seems.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/is-the-bnp-becoming-cumbrias-cup-of-tea-1634246.html
re 312. Let me say that I am very wary about entering into wagers in the site with people I do not know. I was stung for £500 in December 2007 from a commenter who then disappeared.
I try give my best views irrespective of party allegiance and a lot of what I write does not go down well with the Lib Dems.
Where I believe a big misjudgement is being made is that the mood is more anti-Labour/Brown than pro-Tory. People are sick to death of this government and will vote in the best way to get them out.
337
I would have thought EP had enough room for more than one ‘inner Tory’ to be lurking inside.
340 - Watch Jack Caffertys reaction to Palins Bailout Word Salad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8__aXxXPVc&eurl=http://tpmtv.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/jack_cafferty_has_had_it_with.php
Some people watching the Palin-Couric interview see a thicko. I see someone who went up to the “big house” for the first time and lost their nerve. We’ll see who’s right in 2012.
221 tim…
… well I’m back from the Racing Green TVR open day and a pub where I watched the second half of the Scotland-Italy match, what a disappointing performance it was by the Italians as well.
I may be an active CAMRA member (not sure I’ve ever said that on this board so I’m not sure whether you’ve been googling me or just put 2 and 2 together). Anyway, I don’t necessarily believe everything Protzy says, although the detail in that piece is quite right. But as you say, he’s a bit of a lefty and I think taking the opportunity to engage in a bit of Tory-bashing.
The story about the Tories is “Tory home affairs spokesman Chris Grayling said in a speech on 24 February that his party, if returned to power, would be “more robust about licensing rules”.“There is now a strong case to end Labour 24-hour drinking regime,” he added. “It has not created a continental cafe culture — it has just made things worse in many town and city centres.” Mr Grayling did not say precisely how the Tories would change the current legislation.”
Well, enforcing the licensing rules more strongly is something I am in favour of. The Governmenrt should be tacking disorderly drunkenness by targeting those who do it, and the establishments in which they do it, not by using it as an excuse to tax us all out of the pub.
The comment about “24-hour drinking” is more problematic, as the article says we don’t have it. I would oppose any attempt to go back to anything like the old 11-11 regime, although some tinkering around the margins for very late night establishments where there is evidence of disorder might be acceptable.
346 - Sure it was Tory?
Could he have said turkey
A morbidly obese man with a large abdominal pannus (image at right) came in exhibiting red, irritated skin around the abdomen. It looked like a routine skin infection. But what was the cause? During the exam, I lifted the pannus and a turkey sandwich fell from between his folds. The man said it was about a month old, which the smell confirmed.
Be afraid, be very afraid.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vz1TVpwme0&eurl=http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/02/hague-with-knobs-on.html
But he makes more sense than Palin does.
246 jsfl: 2008 Council Election Results: (England & Wales)
CON GAINS: Basingstoke, Bury, Elmbridge, Harlow, Maidstone, North Tyneside, Nuneaton, Redditch, Rossendale, Solihull, Southampton, Vale of Glamorgan, West Lindsey, Wyre Forest.
CON LOSSES: Colchester, Coventry.
LABOUR GAINS: Slough.
LABOUR LOSSES: B. Gwent, Caerphilly, Flintshire, Hartlepool, Merthyr Tydfil, Newport, Nuneaton, Reading, Torfaen, Wolverhampton.
LD GAINS: Burnley, Hull, Sheffield, St. Albans
LD LOSSES: Liverpool, Pendle, West Lindsey.
PC Loss: Gwynedd.
Vote Split: CONS 44%, LAB 24%; LD 25%
349 - You said last week you were a CAMRA member.
I suspect we have more in common on this issue than you have with Grayling.
Hopefully,like the rest of the speech it was back of an envelope tabloid fellating nonsense
336 - Blasted dangling modifiers!
I support laws against incitement to racial hatred.
I don’t support laws against incitement to religious hatred.
344. Indeed. Sadly Cumbrias inclusion in the NW Euro region has ment that they are targeting local by elections heavily.
If you add in a low wage economy, a lack of infrastructure, almost no ethnic presence and a complete absence of “Urban Intelligence” voters make it a fertile area ( perhaps).
The Whitehaven result a few weeks back where they got 40% plus in a county by election should have been a wake up call. Parts of the west coast are classic Old Labour neglected fifedoms. It’s interesting that the more recent kent result - much closer to the media centre of London served that purpose.
353
Oh Tim, pot and kettle.
344. The main thing they needed to change was all the marching about — marching should be left to the army. All he needs now is to get the economic message right and he’s away imo.
353 We might well do. But then, I Am Not A Tory. I voted for them enthusiastically under Thatcher, and as no more than the “least worse” option since. But I have always seen myself as a political freethinker who suports the Tories only because they come closer to my opnions than the other parties.
Having said that, I loather everything the Brown government is doing and feel that the Tories come closest to offering an alternative. But I would prefer a proper economic liberal, socially libertarian, party.
O/T.
The Conservative comfort blanket campaign has been launched:
“Daniel Finkelstein: “It is now a public policy requirement of the utmost importance that Sir Fred does not surrender any of his pension. It no longer matters whether the pension was unreasonable to begin with. What matters is that mob justice should not rule.”
342 Punter
Stocksbridge & Penistone is certainly a LibDem target in theory and really should have in reality as they topped the poll there last May with the Conservatives second and Labour trailing in a poor third place. The Libdem total was also reduced by them not having candidates in parts of the Penistone area.
Odd constituency Stocksbridge & Penistone - the LibDems dominant in the Stocksbridge (Sheffield) part and the Conservatives dominant in the Penisitone (Barnsley) part. Should be an interesting three way contest in 2010.
356
What you’ve got to understand about lefties is that the only thing they hate more than tories, is tories who aren’t toffs. That’s why they hate Pickles and David Davis.
o/t just put a tenner on Strauss for BBC Sports Personality @ 50/1 on betfair. Figured that if he bats half as well as he does done so far in the windies this summer (although that’s a different kettle of fish) and retains captaincy that could be good value. That said it’s at 42/1 now.
309. There is a great paper by a team including Ron Johnston [one of the world's foremost electoral geographers] which shows the dire position the Tories have got themselves into over the past 60 years. The North and Scotland, and urban seats in general have swung massively to Labour. Only the rural South has swung modestly to the Tories in compensation. [see especially tables 2 and 3] The Tories are effectively “locked out” from the North and Scotland.
http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/publications/1999/rossiter_et_al_changing_biases.pdf
the figures only go up to 1997, but I’ve checked those for the 2005 notionals and they are even worse…
361
Especially when the lefties are themselves toffs.
449. Having trawled the streets at six in the morning looking for any means of delaying the oncoming hangover I can tell you that 24 hour drinking is a vicious fiction.
354. Fair enough. I’m a rather tepid supporter of laws against incitement to racial hatred. Oppose laws against incitement to religious hatred.
However I believe both are rather useless and tokenist.
193 The Tories have one district councillor in the Oxford West and Abingdon part of the Vale of White Horse district (23 Lib Dems) and hold two County seats out of the seven there. They have one genuine area of strength up in the Kidlington part of the seat where they hold both County seats and three district seats to the Lib Dems’ two. Part of this area is moving into the constituency from Cameron’s Witney constituency.
361.
What you have to understand about dumbarses is that they understand nothing at all about anything at all which is why they waffle on about all this ‘hate’ nonsenses which is the projected product of a very frightened inner child.
352. TY. Indeed so the Conservatives won Bury, Rossendale and North Tyneside in the North as well as West Lindsey in Lincolnshire. As well as that of course they romped home in both Cheshire Unitary elections.
366 Are you confident on Oxford East or not.
Damned England rugby team. Playing rubbishly we came within a few points of victory despite having 2 players sinbinned. With just a little discipline we would’ve won that game.
363 Rod
But does that take into account that there are far fewer urban constituencies than previously and far more rural/suburban ones, particularly in the south?
There are even northern industrial constituencies which have swung strongly to the Conservatives and would have seemed utterly ludicrous to suggest as Conservative gains previously (Wakefield, Bassetlaw, Rother Valley, Don Valley, Morley & Outwood, Penistone & Stocksbridge).
To say the Conservatives are ‘locked out’ of the North is rubbish, there’s likely to be multiple Conservative gains (possibly into double figures) in West Yorkshire for example.
Even in Scotland your’re wrong as in 1987 (when there was a Conservative national majority of over 100) the Conservatives had a nett position in Scotland of -52. If the Conservatives manage to get only 4 MPs in Scotland in 2010 they will have in effect done better than in 1987.
367
Touched a nerve I see. BTW, I note you are using the language of psychoanalysis, what Popper called mumbo jumbo. Draper is, allegedly, a pschoanalyst.
358 - Do you know of any research on the 11 OClock chucking out time and crime rates?
All the anecdotal stuff I get from licensees,Police and Taxi drivers says that the 11.30 cab rank madness has been reduced since staggered closing.
370 As a cricket lover,I’m even sorer-the present match looks as if it will meander to a run-stuffed draw-if ONLY we HAD enforced the follow-on last time victory would have been ours!
374 - Couldn’t enforce the follow on because Flintoff is not fit enough.
His selection cost the series (probably)
373 Tim why would you get all this information?
Wicket!! Maybe I’m getting too depressed too soon!
363/371 Currently, the Conservatives only hold about 20 seats in the North, but there are plenty of Northern seats within reach, particularly, as you say, in West Yorkshire, and for that matter, Lancashire.
374 Patrick WHF
I think the real failure in Antigua was England’s unenergetic 2nd innings. Having a nightwatchman was very limp.
372.
I don’t suppose you have ever met Popper? That’s Karl, not Popeye.
As a regular pub-goer,I’ve found pubs (especially town centre ones that are pit-stops for youngsters going clubbing later) are very mellow post 11pm-between 9 and 10.30 seems the peak for ‘kick-offs’
Re earlier discussion of CCTV,last night a drunk amle customer attempted to rough up a 5 ft 6 ,8 stone female member of staff at the door-as it is on camera (and the yob left his wallet),he doubtless had a trip to the local cop shop.(its just as well he did not actually hurt the girl as the regular customers of said pub would have put him in a morgue!)
378, Yorkshire may be more fruitful than otherwise due to high publicity large scale job losses courtesy of various banks based here shrinking their workforces.
373. My equally anecdotal evidence is that the old 2330 rush is now the 0230 rush.
What isn’t anecdotal is that there is no deliberate “staggered closing”. In fact the guidence to the ACt explicately forbids councils from doing so each application is heard on its merits.
D’Ancona’s article in the trelegraph:
“This seals the deal for Cameron,” in the astonishing phrase of one seasoned [Labour] party strategist. “It makes it impossible for us to argue that he is not tough enough to deal with the recession. We can’t attack him as a weakling. And it reminds people of what they felt when he was elected leader – that he is different, that he is the kind of Tory they might quite like.” A ministerial source told me that the print media’s coverage of Ivan’s death had been excessive and “not fair” to the Government – as if there were an impartial, politically balanced way to report the death of a small boy.
Pathetic, even by Labour standards.
O/T Bit of a bloomer by the Guardian in the intro to their silly Jacqui Smith Q&A:
She lives in Redditch with her husband, Richard, and their sons, James and Michael.
Oops!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2009/feb/28/jacqui-smith-home-secretary
379 Agreed re the nightwatchman-as the Windies are so much closer to the Equator,I am sure the pivotal factor was the loss of time in the morning which could not be fully recouped in the evening-although respect to the Windies,their tailenders hung on like limpets;hey ho
383 - I’m not out at 2.30 as often as I used to be, but that always used to happen anyway.
I find that although there is no staggered closing, people tend to drift off between 11.30 and 1 ish.
373 MiniCulture did this http://www.culture.gov.uk/reference_library/publications/3574.aspx
I don’t know of anything independant.
The Tories and the North thing is always exagerated. If its a really bad night for Labour West Yorkshire alone could gut Labours majority even if every other incumbant in the UK was returned.
384 - I agree.
People who whinge about the media are w@nkers and always have been.
390, not quite.
The media’s always been unfair to PM Brown, either licking his boots or finding fault with everything.
But complaining about the Camerons’ situation and its media coverage is utterly pathetic.
391.
I agree with Morris Dancer.
Well, I thought I’d never get a chance to say it!
391
I’ll make my first non-partisan comment and agree. The media have been very schizophrenic towards Gordon. Love him or hate him and nothing in between.
392
Snap.
Never met Popper BTW, pity.
385.
“Where would you like to live?
New York - as a rich 25-year-old!”
She comes across as a Tory. A very human, nice Tory but still a Tory.
391 - Bloody hell I agree
388 - Thanks.
That implies there’s very little change overall.But a bit soon to judge.
Grayling is claiming its made things a lot worse.
363. Rod. Certainly I would accept that the report is applicable up to 1997 and in theory is probably pretty much applicable up to 2005.
However, I think there is something more fundamental happening at the moment. I believe there is a general shift away from Labour in terms of people who will actively go out and vote for them.
In the period discussed in the paper turnout was consistently above 70%. In subsequent elections it has fallen and the vastly greater proportion of the fall is within the Labour vote (It has already fallen 4 million since 1997). Given the current political and economic situation there is no guarantee that if turnout increases where that vote will go and given the successes both the Libdems and the Conservatives have had in the North there can be no real idea who will receive the benefit of the ‘bias’ in the future.
I also think a similar change is happening in Scotland and Wales. In my view it may well be a case of new century new considerations?
What is clear is 2010 should be interesting.
392, 396, …..being agreed with by wage slave AND tim…. have I fallen through a crack in reality and landed in a parallel universe?!
396
Tim re 3736 Why would YOU get all this information regarding 24 hr drinking and pub closing from the police for example??
387 Agreed, most people don’t stay out to 0230, whereas almost everyone used to stay until 11.00. And not every pub opens late. Where I live the Wetherspoons is open to 0030 at weekends, the others close earlier. Any problems are likely to be in larger towns where there is a concentration of late night “vertical drinking” establishments, removing flexible licensing for everybody because of a relatively small number of problem establishments in large towns is in my view not the right approach.
361 Understand about lefties. I think that might be an oxymoron for morons!
I think the Conservatives will gain the following in Yorkshire in 2010:
Halifax, Calder Valley, Colne Valley, Dewsbury, Keighley, Pudsey, Elmet/Rothwell, Leeds NE, Wakefield, Brigg/Goole, Cleethorpes, Selby, York Outer.
Possible other Conservative gains in Yorkshire are:
Bradford W, Batley, Leeds NW, Morley/Outwood, Harrogate, Penistone/Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Don Valley, Grimsby.
But no Sheffield Hallam.
As Morris Dancer job losses and the Labour government’s preferential support for London and Scotland are important.
398.
Everyone, even the lowest of the low’s got to believe that they have someone ‘below them’. Politicians of all colours believe it’s the media!
371. Wakefield (on different boundaries but not too dissimilar) was never a complete no-hope seat in very good years for the Conservatives, who came within a few hundred votes of winning it in 1983. You’re right to say it’s become more of a target since, though.
384. New Labour=scum.
405.
MUM!! The intelligentsia have arrived!
402. I think thats a very reasonable list. I’d move Batley and Spen into the top section. It’ll get hit very hard by the leeds bust and the Lib/Lab take over of the Council mid municipal year won’t help. Dewsbury ? Malik is an operator who, while odiously illiberal in my view, hasn’t beeen sucked into the london bunker and is working the patch hard. Though of course he no longer has a tory council to rub up against either.
Ed Balls should be in real trouble in Morley and outwood but with the anti Labour vote splintering Tory/BNP/IND I think he’ll hang on.
Leeds NW ? If its a Falklands sized landslide then yes its possible but Greg Mulholland should get a substantial first term incumbancy bounce. the Tories have so many other fish to fry in W Yorks and the LD’s only Bradford East
404 Wakefield would be an almost certain Conservative gain in 2010 on its 1983 boundaries.
398 But who do the media believe are below them? Politicians and/or bankers?
First Story - Looks like the Tories are going to have to radically reform the expense system as this type of story will run every week if they are elected.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/197845/Tory-secrecy-campaigner-Shadow-Defence-Minister-Julian-Lewisd-pound60k-payout.html
383
My anecdotal evidence is that my home town centre remains an effective no go area Friday and Saturday nights and that the amount of drunkeness and drink related cime has increased not decreased since the new opening hours were introduced.
@398/408:
Politicians look down on the Media. The Media look down on the Daily Mail. The Daily Mail look down on Simon Heffer.
Heffer is truly the very trough of human achievement. The baseline of all human indecency.
For anyone who hasn’t yet seen it a brilliant campaign from Sattchi and the perfect antidote to some dismal politics
http://www.ecademy.com/node.php?id=123086
Sky leading on Gordon. he must have known the applause lines in that speech would have been prime time TV. Yet she just looks dishevelled and can’t make eye contact with the camera at all. its what you would learn on a media Studies freshers course.
cameron item two with extracts of an email to party members and a photo of him and Ivan.
perhaps i’m going soft but the email read like it had actually been drafted by him. I really feel for them.
Surely the time when pubs, clubs and bars close is something entirely local in nature, and decisions over such should thus be entirely in the hands of local councils.
413 yet she?
wicket
415. Whoops! Gordon looked a wreck. I don’t mean that in a cheap partisan way. I really don’t. Its just if you are making a speech that you know is going to be item one or two on the news and you look like that… We’ll something is really deeply wrong somewhere.
407 Boundary changes will make Batley harder for the Conservatives and Dewsbury easier. The change in control of Kirklees council though might have effects as you say.
I think the LibDems will hold Leeds NW but with the Conservatives second (and a big collapse in the Labour vote). I had expected Harrogate to be a comfortable LibDem hold too but the Harrogate LibDems seem to be in a real mess with resignations, defections and a byelection loss to the Conservatives in Knarresborough.
Morley/Outwood will be interesting. If the Conservative candidate in Tony Calvert (prominent internet poster) they will have a good chance particularly as Balls is so closely linked to Brown.
414. Or better still local magistrates.
418 It is Tony Calvert - Conhome have just put it up
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/02/antony-calvert.html
410 The problem is that when pubs are turning out drunken yobs onto the street, no effective action is taken against those establishments. The Licensing Act allows both Premises and Personal licenses to be removed.
Alternatively, I suppose the police could have a sweep every now and again and charge everyone being drunk & disorderly with just that offence.
I am always a bit sceptical when told about “no go areas”. Of course it might be so in your home town, but a lot of the time is is nothing more than good natured drunken rowdyness, which to my mind is nothing much to worry about.
418 - Do you fancy a bet on Halifax staying Labour?
416 Great away point for your team Fulham today (although Arsenal are only doing marginally better than Gordon Brown at the moment :lol:)
Hopefully West Ham’s home fixture against Man City will yield max points;as I recall the blue Mancs have only won once on their travels this season-I’ll say no more as I’m probably tempting fate
More than rowdiness I am afraid. When I was of that age I was rowdy with the best of them. A bit anti-social I’ll admit for which I am not proud. But we were never violent nor did we do damage, both of which are now commonplace. Worst of all there has been the targetting of foreign owned shops in the town which is shameful for a town which has a long and proud tradition of links with Poland and Eastern Europe in general.
This is a brilliant article from Morus, very relevant, with significant implications.
For 50 years we have been seeing ‘government creep’. Like a vast sprawling monster that smothers and kills all before it, the government has grown into the beast of beasts.
Many wrongly blame the banks for the credit crunch. I was vociferous in criticising them here 3 years ago, predicting what would come. But I made a distinction. Government is the cause, banking crisis is the effect, or as I then labelled it ‘credit crisis’.
Bad banking was caused by bad government - and nothing else. We forget that there is no free market in banking, and there hasn’t been for 90 years in Britian, the US, and many other countries. The gold standard was abolished and interest rates were set centrally - not by the market. This central authority - the Federal Reserve in the US, and over the last 12 years the Labour government in the UK are wholly responsible for this avoidable recession, depression.
As one of the few that predicted it in detail here before it came, I say, don’t blame the banks, they are as much victims as the public, misdeeds though they made, the cause is government. I will offer a detailed proof and analysis shortly. This will include revolutionary economic theory.
‘Government is not the solution to our problems. Government is the problem.’
Well done, Morus. Long may this forum thrive.
413 Got the email from Cameron earlier today - not long, not indulgent but as you say it reads that he wrote it, left me a bit teary.
425. There hasn’t been a free market in banking since at least the time of Robert Peel’s Bank Charter Act of 1844.
423
Hope you are right Patrick. After the disappointment of the mid week game I am banking on them bouncing back to lift us up to 7th. Just a shame Cole isn’t playing as he has been superb this season.
424 That sort of thing is completely out of order, and needs to be stamped out (before anyone thinks that my approval of a bit of drunken rowdyness extended to outright criminality).
Phil C: It’s all very well to talk about “old fashioned drunken rowdyness” but such behaviour can often turn nasty in a split second and it very intimidating to others.
Last year I visit my mother for her birthday weekend in a small Dorset town and in the evening my brother and I went to the cinema. When we merged at 9.30 on a March evening, a group of youngsters at the top of the high street were kicking the bus shelter to pieces and there was a very lively crowd outside the local pub, where two heavy bouncers were on duty. When we went to the car park, which was down a side road, a group of youngsters in their early teens were riding round the car park with their hoods up. They may have been totally innocent but, as a woman I felt frightened and I was glad that I had a six foot plus tall man beside me.
I felt angry that a woman couldn’t go to the cinema in the early evening in a quiet Dorset town and not feel intimidated.
420. Wouldn’t it be fantastic to see Balls defeated!
431 - It would be their Portillo moment…
431. Ohhhh yes! He would be Labour’s Portillo (unless of course Brown himself was toppled).
432. Snap
422 Tim
I always bet against my own side!
If my team wins I’m happy, if they lose I earn some money.
As to Halifax I’ll point out that the Conservatives were about 1500 votes ahead of Labour in May 2008 and since then Gordon Brown has told the 6000 local HBOS employees that they’re less important than the HBOS employees of Edinburgh, every subsequent job loss will be held against Labour. They’ll also be many local people who have seen their Halifax shares become nearly worthless.
Not to mention the general economic disaster zone Yorkshire is steadily becoming.
431. Or Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam!
435 Another loud/shy/loud Tory.
What a shame.
430 You’re right about the criminal damage, that is appalling, although I do wonder why the bouncers hadn’t called the police. Did you report it?
But this is a discussion on licensing laws, and as 9.30pm has always been permitted hours even on a Sunday, it’s not something that could be fixed by removal of post-11pm closing. If the pub routinely chucks out drunken yobs it needs to have the existence of its license reviewed. And we need better community policing. Plus a whole host of things that would mean that kids don’t think it’s right to smash up bus shelters. The problem is that focussing on flexible licensing laws is very easy and would apparently go down well with Daily Mail readers (those that aren’t drinkers), but would do absolutely nothing to fix the problem.
432. 433. I acn almost imagine it now - Was you up for Balls?
Lets hope Ashcroft puts everything he can into this seat, even though its not technically a marginal.
419. No, councils would be better - they’re accountable. Magistrates would still have to grant licences according to some sort of framework and that would almost certainly come from central government. Licencing, like planning, should be left to local authorities with the only appeals being allowed on the grounds that procedure or policy wasn’t followed - but the national guidelines should be scrapped.
In many cases, the contracting out of public functions to ‘independent’ bodies is really an abdication of responsibility by politicians in order to avoid blame (’not my fault - those people over there did it’). Unfortunately, that reinforces an impression that politicians can’t be trusted, as why should the public trust them if they can’t trust themselves?
411.
“Heffer is truly the very trough of human achievement. The baseline of all human indecency.”
so you’ll occasionally find him on top of Melanie Phillips?
429
It has already led to one Polish couple giving up and going home - actually I don’t mean that. They were home. They just decided to go back to Poland.
Newark was where the Polish Airborne were based and most of them died at Arnhem so we have a very large Polish War cemtry in the town. We have always had lots of Poles and whilst you could tell they weren’t British from the accents (when I was a kid the sweet shop owner Alex was Polish but looked Indian which really confused me) they were completely integrated into the community. Now the very large numbers of new arrivals has led to a backlash against the whole community. Of course this is worst amongst the drunken youth and has been stoked up by the whoole problem of Staythorpe power station just outside Newark where all the jobs have gone to foreign workers.
Its a real mess but the yobbish response is completely out of order.
If, as I assume, Another Richard is the same person I have come across on other forums, it would be worth listening to what he says. He knows his stuff in Yorkshire. Whether or not he want to take a bet, for whatever reason, doesn’t change that.
I wasn’t sure he was a Tory though, I must say.
On the subject of taking bets, it somes up often on here, including a few times in this thread. Just because someone doesn’t accept any bet offered to them doesn’t invalidate their opinion. People are free to chose who they bet with, or whether they do at all. Quite a few people on here would probably rather just bet with bookies/exchanges (like myself), or others may not bet at all, but if they have useful information that they are willing to share then their contribution is still important.
There’s no way that Clegg will lose in Hallam, that’s for sure.
423
TA v Much, Chuffed to bits with a point. From what I read it was very even and we might have won it. What is most satisfying is that Fulham are no pushover any more. The appointment of Roy Hodgson as Manager was a touch of genius.
437
Tim you seem very shy by not answering a question I have asked you twice…
443. The Liberal Democrats are doomed - DOOMED to defeat!
391: I agree with Morris Dancer on this. It’s unpleasant and irrelevant to whinge about news coverage of the Cameron family tragedy, and anyone who does should try to get a life that isn’t completely obsessed with opinion polls.
Conversely, I’ve not seen anyone try to make capital out of Brown’s sensitive response in the Commons, as Ted said he’d seen. I think most people are extremely sorry for Cameron, glad that Brown responded appropriately, and won’t link it particularly to voting intentions either way.
I know what Charlotte means about intimidation, but a lot of it is in our own minds. I remember last year sitting on a wall outside a pub in a roughish area waiting for a canvass team to turn up, when a group of teenagers in hoods ‘bore down’ on me (as I thought to myself). I eyed them a bit nervously, till one said, “Hello! Don’t you remember us? - we met when you opened the youth project last week.” How often do gangs of teenagers really beat an adult up? So rarely that it’s on the front page of the Mail when it happens.
443 - I was pulling his leg a bit, but if anyone fancies a bet on Halifax going Tory, I’m available.
445 - I didn’t think you were being serious.
I am a Chief Constable in the North of England, either that or I go drinking with friends who are policemen sometimes.
You decide.
440
SOrry Davbid but you have to be living on another planet if you think councils are in any way accountable. On any and every matter of importance they can be relied upon to ignore the wishes of the local community because they know few people actually ever bother to vote in local elections and those who do can be idiotically relied upon to do so on party lines not because of anything the councillors have done.
Locally accountable councils are a myth.
Tim, I wasn’t particularly aiming that at you. It’s a common criticism of people on here, and I think sometimes it can cause people to miss valuable information or may scare off people who could be valuable contributors.
447
Agree. Those most at threat of attack from young men/teenagers are other young men/teenagers.
438. Phil. I mentioned the bus shelter incident to my mother when we got home but she says the bus shelter is regularly vandalised but the police station is quite a way away and the police generally won’t take action unless they have photographic evidence. However, people are afraid to use their phone cameras on vandals in case the vandalising mob spot them and turn on them.
I accept that smashing up the bus shelter isn’t major crime but it is part of a series of low level destructive criminal actions that people are afraid to confront in case it escalates.
In the 70s feminists lead a series of marches called “Take Back the Night” claiming that women should have the right to walk at night without feeling intimidated. Nowadays I feel that it is law-abiding people of both sexes who need to take back the night. (although quite how they do it I’m not sure) I don’t feel this is a sexist issue as my brother says that the most terrifying sights he has encountered in the evening are hen parties in Bournemouth.
369 - I genuinly think Oxford East will be very close.
The Lib Dems did better than they expected last time and on a campaign that only really gained momentum late. Since then they have had a lot of support from the national and regional party and have the benefit of two very strong student wards moving in to the constituency. If anything the student vote seems to be shifting even more anti-Labour than last time (although that might be balanced to an extent by memories of Iraq fading amongst the Muslim vote)
However after seeing his majority slashed Andrew Smith MP is now working terrifically hard, has patched up his relationship with the local Labour Party and has them out campaigning regularly. He is also getting a lot of party support and is using his Comms Allowance effectively. He even voted against the Government on Heathrow, presumably courting the Green vote, although that move was met with a great deal of cynicism.
So there are factors playing both ways. If the Lib Dems do it I suspect they will be very grateful for those boundary changes.
By the way I did double check and it do appear that it is illegal for a pub to serve someone who is drunk. Which poses a hundred and one interesting questions.
NPMP - back on that pension of yours.
Assuming the move to money purchase eventually happens from your ‘best in country’ final salary scheme accrual.
Here’s an idea for you - how about all MP’s then accept the actuarially calculated transfer values for all your accrued final salary benefits and these sums are moved in to your new money purchase schemes. Thus relieving the taxpayers, pseudo trustees of your scheme, of the liabilities
A-day calculations mean that say you’ve got £50k pa accrued then that’s worth £1,000,000.
Under FOI, am I able to ask for the accrued pension benefits of MPs - how about Dennis Skinner’s for example?
Lovely jubbly.
449. Richard, I wholly agree. Local authorities - what are they?
Why do we tolerate a tiny cabal of oligarchs so remote from those they serve?
We should be making local decisions for ourselves. It is a bad, bad system. How outrageous, that Britian was more demcoratic 1,000 years ago under the Anglo-Saxons, and 1,900 years ago under the Romans then it is today. Abolish the ‘Councils’, and establish direct local democracy. Wherever democracy is local and direct we get vastly superior decision-making, lower crime, high economic productivity, and much, much higher standards of living and quality of life. This evidence on this is overwhelming - it is all one way. When I have more time I will list it.
Council oligarchs? We don’t need them, often they are far more ignorant then the public as a whole when it comes to most branches of policy-making - and they systematically guarantee bad decisions through being so remote from those they are supposed to serve.
We the people today, are held in contempt. Yet it is our money they spend, and they steal for their own uses and abuses.
We the people that are supposed to be sovereign, cannot continue to tolerate this offensive situation.
437 Tim
I’ve explained by betting policy, it’s one which makes me very happy. I don’t look on betting as some symbal of virility but as something which creates a bit of fun or as a reasonable opportunity to earn some money. As the general election is likely to be 15 months away I don’t see any point in placing bets here with individual commenters, if you want to bet on the Halifax result then offer me some odds when the election is called. Though I’m always interested at having a little bet if the odds look promising - today I had £20 on Arsenal to draw at 11/4 and £20 on Chelsea to draw at 4/1 (grrr!!!) both at Corals.
443 Keith
Thanks for your kind words. Politically I’m an independent libertarian Conservative but have never been a Party member.
And you’re right about Hallam, I would be willing to bet that the Conservatives get a higher % of the vote in Hemsworth in 2010 than in Hallam.
Brown will be sorry he brought up bonuses……
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/4885179/Civil-servants-receiving-five-figure-bonuses.html
447 “Conversely, I’ve not seen anyone try to make capital out of Brown’s sensitive response in the Commons, as Ted said he’d seen. I think most people are extremely sorry for Cameron, glad that Brown responded appropriately, and won’t link it particularly to voting intentions either way”
Do you not see the irony in your sentence. As far as I was concerned Brown seemed to offer rehearsed fairly bland platitudes. Now I have no problem with that as it was his duty to say something(although looking upthread I clearly have suspicions which I will not go into again). What I find really repugnant is Labour MPs telling us that he was sensitive and appropriate whereas if they truly felt anything for the plight of the Camerons they would just shut up about it and stop telling us how great Brown is in a sad point scoring it will affect the voting type way.
449. But that’s a circular argument: no-one takes councils seriously (any more) because they have no independent power and they have no independent power because no-one takes them seriously. Add to that mix the difficulty in recruiting quality councillors - because they have no independent power AND no-one takes them seriously and the whole thing feeds on itself undermining the process. But whether or not in practice voters use their powers to hold councillors to account / reward them for their record is beside the point: that point surely being that they can in a way that they can’t with magistrates.
Were local councils able to take many more decisions for themselves, the process could be reversed - but it would take a brave government as there would undoubtedly be enough silly decisions made to keep the Daily Mail in business, alongside the many more that did what the public wanted. In many cases, councils ignore what the public wants because government ‘guidance’ gives no discretion in the matter.
Besides, does central government or the civil service provide a more responsive system? I doubt it.
@447:
FWIW, Nick, from chatting to many, many Tories, it seems that Brown’s response to the death of Ivan Cameron was gratefully received, and many of us were genuinely impressed with Brown for the first time in his premiership.
461 Yes I concur. I thought what he said was genuine and he spoke well.
The new £10m bank fat cat: Man who helped HBOS to its knees will pull in a pension of £400,000 a year
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1157747/The-new-10m-bank-fat-cat-Man-helped-HBOS-knees-pull-pension-400-000-year.html
93. SeanT - Just to say i looked at that and found it most interesting and then discovered your link afterwards on here! I wondered why your book was advertised at the end of it!
Are you a secret believer in Climate Change!
Seriously though, i was that impressed i was talking about it to some relatives before i noticed you had written it! Most engrousing!
460
No you misunderstand me David. Local councils have huge amounts of power. They are currently using it to impose unwanted developments and new rules on people who feel helpeless to stop them. The problem is not to do with how much power councils have its to do with how unaccountable they feel themselves to be to the electorate. They ignore the wishes of local residents at every turn and carry on doing what is best for them, their parties and their cronies.
As I said, local council democracy is a myth
Gordon has a comment piece in the Sunday Times - seems to be a speech to the Americans so presumably written for US media release and gives flavour of the joint address.
Wondered what the new phrase was going to be, its “global new deal”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article5821821.ece
Just looking again at the results for bradford west at the 2005 general election,marsha singh(labour)beat mr rashid(tory)by 3000 votes,I did’nt think it was that close.I now think that if mr rashid went again in bradford west,he could win.I remember him been a popular in the area where I live,can any one tell me if he is the conservative candidate.
466. Brown is full of rubbish - What worries me is the crap he came out with today about using Northern Rock as a mortgage bank, Natwest as an Industrial Bank etc. The foolish idiot is going to end up not just allowing a near collapse of the banking system but to create through state direction some utterly useless Banks to replace what was there before. He still thinks the regulation scheme was good that he created and blames it on america.
Please Brown just call an election and stop scorching earth!
@465:
Democracy’s something of a myth in the UK, but I suspect that’s the way it will always be. Nobody has any real interest in being accountable to The Man In The Street. Certainly not The Man In The Street.
462. Wednesday was a tragic day for Cameron, and I’m sure we all commiserate, and sympathise with his situation. The trauma of losing a child is unique and haunting. Few ever fully resume life as their former selves.
It changes the human being. Sometimes we become worse, drawn in and brooding. Sometimes we become better, drawing out inner strength and rising to become greater, stronger and more determined. Let us hope the latter path for Cameron.
This week we should also not forget that hundreds of billions of pounds of taxpayers money has been stolen to prop up two failed Scottish banks – HBOS (under Lloyds), and RBS, and that these bailouts raise the mathematical probability of UK default on it’s debt to 100% - a mathematical certainty. A proof of this prediction will follow shortly.
Strange? What about those Treasury bond ratings? They are about as accurate and truthful now as Brown’s reasons for cancelling the election.
Brown is giving Cameron a present. It’s called third world status for Britain in our lifetimes.
We ain’t ever had it so bad. Cameron’s main task - to warn and prepare the public for what is to come.
@466:
It’s better than his repeated evocation of a New World Order. It will have Baby Boomer USians doing little wees in their pants, and leaving everybody else looking at him like ‘lolwut?’.
460. I’m not sure I do misunderstand. In planning - the example you cite - councils have very little practical power. They are given ‘targets’ by central government (or some offshoot of it such as the relevant regional office) for the number of properties that must be built in its area, with the threat that these will be imposed if the Unitary Development Plan does not allow for them. Once the plan is in place, further guidelines determine minimum estate property density, the proportion of affordable housing to be included and all sorts of other things which restrict design features. Any plan which meets these criteria and is for an area which is designated for housing will almost certainly be passed, irrespective of what the local population AND the councillors think because the Planning Committee know that a refusal will lead to an appeal to the Secretary of State, the decision being overturned and a bill for the local taxpayer. It is the tying of local hands by national regulations that is causing the disconnect.
That said, it’s certainly true to say that there’s a proportion of people within councils at all officer levels and within councillors as well who are not remotely interested in what the public thinks or wants - but then they can afford to be.
466. Ted. Waffle from the smug fat fool - coupled with an attempt to repeat the “do nothing” line about the Tories on the front page. The only problem is that Gordon really is a do nothing PM. The PBR was tiny and most of it was wasted on VAT. It looks like infrastructure spend will be minimal. Gordon can pose as much as he wants - as the plonker who overspent during the upswing, he is the guy who cannot actually do much spending. It really is quite amusing to see.
Just tuned in folks. An Excellent essay.Some of these issues may just be a sign of the times (using computers unwisely/ignorantly/stupidly for instance), but some of them are making me, a lefty, increasingly see New Labour as “The meddling party”.
@472:
It’s a fundamental flaw in representative elections. As long as we have elections, we will never be democratic. But it’s not going to change, there are far to many vested interests that hold a stake in the status quo- both within and without the political class.
467. Mr Rashid is unlikely to be a candidate for parliament any time soon.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5762373.ece
Zahid Iqbal is the Conservative candidate for the next election and is by some way the best person supported by the Conservatives in the seat during the time I’ve been politically active in the area. I would be surprised if he doesn’t win, though Bradford West is notorious for not following the national trend.
Must surely nearly be time for the lagershed thread? I’m getting antsy trying to behave whilst sitting on this much store-brand vodka and Coke Zero.
475. It’s a fundamental flaw in representative elections. As long as we have elections, we will never be democratic
Pray do tell how we can have democracy without representative elections?
Fred the shred’s pension pot actually $32.7 million
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article5822235.ece
472
Actually councils have far more power than you seem to think. It may not be direct power but it is the ability to influence and make decisions which then affect the final outcome. Often this is directly against the wishes of the local population.
Case in point: Our local council last year decided to apply for Growth Point status for our town. This was done in secret and only announced after the event. The application was made with a potential developer already lined up to build some 6000 houses on farm land on the edge of the twon - a scheme that is opposed by teh overwhelming majority of the population since it will in effect increase the size of the town by 50%.
Since the local council made the application and it was accepted by central government it is now almost impossible for it to be stopped. Indeed the councillors and developers at meetings make the claaim that it is a done deal and that all we can do is have some input on the detail. The whole question of the inability of a medieval market town plan to support that sort of extra population has been ignored. In fact they have now said that since under the Growthpoint shceme there is a requirement for them to build a certain number of houses a year they are planning on a second development of a similar size on the other side of the town.
Few peopole in the town want this and neither do the Town council but most of the councillors for the district represent constituencies outside of the town and so there is no effective way to hold them to account.
On thousands of issues the local authorities have vast amounts of power which they often wield indirectly specifically because it makes it so much more difficult for them to be challenged by the electorate.
There is no democracy in this system.
466 Doesn’t he lay it on thick about the special relationship, Ironic then that Obama moved Churchills bust from the oval office. As for Brown’s platitudes, I suppose we will see and see how much it costs. I think we need to remember that the IMF warned Brown frequently that his policies were heading the UK for financial disaster.
Also protectionism a convenient scapegoat for multinationals and Politicians with snouts in the trough?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2009/02/protectionism_wasnt_the_proble.html
HSBC rights issue…..
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5822089.ece
479. Yes, A final Salary scheme! He has probably had a huge amount tax free upto 1.5 years tax free!
I wonder how much the HBOS bloke has taken so far - Brown is utterly useless.
I thought Growthpoint Newark had cross party support?
And the Newark Tory MP supported it.
http://www.patrickmercer.org.uk/type2show.asp?ref=724&ID=106
476 David Herdson
Does Zahid Iqbal have a very large personal vote in Bradford West?
476,david,mr Iqbal only as to persuade the two and half thousand people who voted bnp last time to win.
484
He did indeed so do most of the council. Of course that doesn’t imply cros party support since since the council is also Tory and it uses the cabinet syestem which effectively shuts out most dissenting voices. But not all councillors are in favour and there were some interesting disciplinary proceedings against dissenters behind closed doors.
More to the point - in fact the case in point - this is not supported by the town as a whole. The workshops and public meetings have been well attended and massively opposed but the people running these only allow discussion of the detail, not of whether or not the scheme should go ahead at all.
I am afraid Pat Mercer is very out of tune with his constitiuents on this (he also opposed the new power station for reasons no one quite seems to be able to understand.)
Personally I am voting with my feet and am leaving Newark. We have already lost this fight and the town will be ruined by these politicians and developers and I want no part of it.
@478:
State your assumptions, man. STATE YOUR ASSUMPTIONS.
481. I read in one paper that Obama is changing the Special Relationship into a Partnership i.e. what they can get out of us.
I don’t think Brown gets it that Obama does not feel Europe is his political scheme and i think part of this is his african roots. It does provide interesting dynamics to Trident etc!
Tip for those who think Scotland could beat Ireland (I really don’t think they have a hope, but if you do, read on). There’s 8.6 available on betfair for no winner of the Crown (can only occur if Scotland beat Ireland AND Ireland beats Wales). If Scotland beat Ireland there will only be No Winner and Wales left as options and the No Winner odds will be the same as Ireland’s against Wales in the last match (probably 2/1 at the very most).
Personally I think the 2.88 for Ireland to win the Crown is perfectly too high a price and worth backing, but as ever check the Slam market for Ireland too.
I want to break free!
I want to break free!
Etc!
485. Not proven - he’s not stood for election at any level before, as far as I’m aware. It was his skills and character I was referring to when I said I found him a cut some way above his predecessors.
As with many other seats, the personal vote of the MP will matter more than that of his challengers, and Marsha Singh tends to suffer with being the ‘wrong’ religion for the seat, irrespective of his personal abilities - and they seem adequate but no better: I’d rate him as the second best of the three Bradford MPs, and fourth of five in the district. Unless he can bring home a particularly large slice of pork for the constituency (possibly not the best phrase in the circumstances), I expect him to be in a lot of trouble for his reelection bid.
jsfl, I think Martin Coxall may be making a reference to John Stuart Mill’s ‘On Representative Government’, the ‘Federalist Papers’ of Madison, Hamilton and Jay, and the seminal ‘Social Contract’ of the great Rousseau. They agree that :
‘Elected representatives’ bar the people from holding real power and cause self-perpetuating oligarchies to usurp power and privilege for themselves.
Jsfl, would you please sign a blank cheque and send it to me. I have no doubt that you will. Why?
Every time you go into the ballot box and tick the box you are signing away a blank cheque of unconditional power to a stranger who has no reason or motivation to do anything in return or keep any promise.
They elected ‘representative’ can break every promise at will and you can do nothing in return - you cannot revoke your vote for a broken contract or sue the elected representative for a tort - a breach of contract. You therefore have no real power. It is an illusion of power that fools many.
You and I when we vote are just ‘donkeys’. The elected representative is the only person that holds real power. Mill - ‘It is not a democracy. It is an oligarchy that is called representative government to fool the public.’
‘Know thyself, and know thy enemy.’
@489:
Mr Day, are you saying you think we should nuke America for the lulz?
481
Why has Obama removed Chuchill’s bust? Churchill was half American.
486. I hope that’s an ironic post!
Hi! My name is Cecil F. MacParkinghurstington VII.
My hobbies include; skateboarding, salsa dancing and collecting the door handles of abandoned houses in the North Wales area.
My favourite colour is orange.
My favourite food is pasta.
My favourite drink is very refreshing.
I have no assumptions. I asked you a question????
Anyway I’m off now so it doesn’t matter…….
I’m sorry, I completely misread the signs.
*Leaves in disgrace and with tail between his muscular legs*
Important news!:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/02/antony-calvert.html
Antony Calvert has been selected as Tory candidate to stand against the villainous Balls. As the Tories, going by the odds anyway, are the only party with a chance of unseating the odious turniphead let’s hope Calvert gives him a thrashing.
I love Will L. He’s my new favourite poster. I think I’ll ask OGH if we can keep him. I promise not to let him wee indoors.
495. It could be because Churchill’s name is mud in Kenya, as he supported the suppression of the Mau Mau rebellion in which Obama’s grandfather was tortured by the British.
495 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/4623148/Barack-Obama-sends-bust-of-Winston-Churchill-on-its-way-back-to-Britain.html
@498:
It doesn’t matter because my new special friend Will L explained it all at 493 anyway.
Elections are the enemy of democracy.
492,David, you said you rate mr singh only 4th best of the 5 bradford district MP’s,may I ask,who do you rate the best,please don’t say mr sutcliffe.I rate mr davies (shipley) the best,he speaks his own mind and not the party.
502.
Didn’t the majority of Kenyans, ie those who were not Kikuyu, oppose the Mau Mau?
Perhaps Brown should tell Obama to get his cannon fodder for Afghanistan from Kenya instead of this country.
501. lol.
502. Socrates, are you insinuating that Barak Obama as President of the United States of America, would undetake a highly vindictive, and malicious insult to a great friend of America - Churchill, solely because of personal prejudice?
I hope not.
That could mean Obama - Idi Amin Mark II?
480/7. I do take your point and I think we’ve really been arguing a similar case from opposite ends: I do agree that there’s very little effective accountability. The question is how to improve what there is and gain democratic power over what there isn’t.
There will always be losers in any decision and discontents often say ‘they didn’t listen to us’, when in fact it would be truer to say ‘they listened but we didn’t persuade them’. Even so, the restrictions, instructions, guidance and financial powers and influence that central government has are huge compared to the discretion councils have. I don’t know your case in Newark but what would have happened if the council hadn’t taken up that particular scheme? There would still have been targets for housing that it would have had to plan for. In Bradford, we’ve been told to plan for 50000 new properties over the next twenty years. I expect that you’d have got some pro rata equivalent.
So what to do?
- Scrap all national agreements for locally employed staff. The employer (council, school, police force etc) employs and contracts / policies / pay scales should negotiated between them and their employees or their representatives.
- End right of appeal to central government for local decisions.
- Guidance to be genuinely discretionary. Good practice to be publicised but it to be left to councils to decide whether to follow it - and for local residents / opposition parties to question why not if not.
- Recall elections to be triggered if sufficient people petition (I’d have these for other elections as well). A requirement for 10% of the electorate might be a sensible minimum amount.
- Secondary schools to be funded directly from central government.
- Reform of local taxation to allow much more tax to be raised from a local base (at least 50%, preferably nearer 70%).
- Directly elected police and fire commissioners and boards.
Do these and faith in local democracy might start to return. It won’t happen of course - Whitehall won’t give up the powers.
489 Obama is surrounded by Clinton era democrats.
The enjoyable dispute in pollster.com between Penn and Greenberg about the 2005 UK election campaign shows the close relationship at party & personal level between New Labour and the Democrats. Some of the same things apply to other countries in the anglophone world. While those type of bonds exist there remain channels of influence & intelligence about each other that few non-anglophone countries share.
Its worth reading the less than friendly discussions to understand more about our domestic politics around 2005 (and as Brown still uses these people perhaps understand some of his tactics today)
good place to start is here:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/greenberg_responds.php
505. Davies - Cryer - Sutcliffe - Singh - Rooney.
The top two are a long way clear of third, competition for which is a good deal closer.
510,SNAP
I could go with all of those. I understood the basis of the Poll Tax in the 80s to be this whole question of local accountability. Unfortunately in turfing out the Poll Tax and later Maggie they also turfed out any chance of proper local democracy for a generation. They got rid of the solution but kept the problem.
As you say there were requirements for more housing in Newark just like elsewhere. The problem we have is the district council decided that the way to deal with this was to effectively double the size of the town over 20 years rather than spreading the building out around other communities. Of course with only a few councillors coming from the town and most coming from the villages and the smaller centres like Ollerton, it was a great solution for most of the councillors who could make sure their electorates weren’t affected.
In the end it was easier than trying to fight the unrealistic demands of the central government. Of course the question no one has bothered to ask is where all these people will work as the main employers in the town are all in trouble and many will probably go whilst many of us who in the past put a large amount into the local community both financially and socially are leaving and moving elsewhere.
508 David Herdson - I’d add to your list a rethink of John Prescott’s revamp of how local councils operate. Whilst the old committee-based system certainly needed reform, the new ‘Cabinet’ system he effectively imposed is deeply flawed. It has given too much power to officers and the Cabinet members, and has entrenched party politics more than is necessary, so that ordinary councillors (and particularly independents) now have little more say than members of the public.
Add to that the proliferation of so-called ‘Partnerships’ (with zero democratic control), interference from central government, regional planning quangos, highly proscriptive codes of conduct, etc etc, and the net effect is anti-democratic.