What’s this supposed to be all about?
February 12th, 2009Whose going to be convinced that Labour now gets it?
I’ve played this brief YouTube piece by John Prescott several times and I’m none the wiser. What’s the point of it? Why is Labour going to all this trouble to prove that that somehow the party understands and is fully embracing the new media?
My guess is that it’s is in response to a growing feeling within the movement that this is an area where Labour lags behind the Tories. So what Prescott is doing here is to try to show that they are in the forefront in the hope of maintaining spirits within the membership.
The fact that it is painfully obvious they there aren’t is irrelevant. This is a classic case where being seen to be active is more important than whether it’s effective.
Labour seat numbers betting for the next general election.
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First?
Mike, can you release JohnLoony’s embargoed prediction for the Waddon byelection?
From Ben Brogan
It’s funny, and it’s all in aid of promoting Labour’s chances at the next election. But I’m not sure mocking a Cabinet minister is the way to do it. Prezza’s Interweb reincarnation continues to mesmerise, but who is paying for it? The answer, I suspect is us. They Work for You points out that Mr Prescott hasn’t spoken or asked a question in the Commons since he stood down from the Cabinet in 2007. Perhaps he’s stopped claiming expenses as well. we wouldn’t want the taxpayer cross-subsidising Labour campaign efforts, now would we?
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2009/02/whos-paying-for-prescott.html
3. Middle? [I feel this might be a short thread..ZZZZzzzz]
Mike, do you want to torture us with this video?
John Loony emailed me this on January 24th 2009
Can we have a new thread of the shock Ireland poll?!
Fianna Fail = YO HO HO!!!!
OUCH, that is painful to whatch
Re-posted from previous thread.
The Irish Times poll mentioned in the thread has now been confirmed.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0212/breaking95.htm
Voting intention
FF 22% (-5)
FG 32% (-2)
Lab 24% (+10)
SF 8% (+1)
Green 4% (N/C)
The government’s approval rating has hit 14% and this is the first time soince polling began in Ireland that Fianna Fail have been in third place and overtaken by Labour. More proof that Bertie Ahern, just like his old friend Blair, bailed out at exactly the right time!
8. Or rather painful to watch
Prescott was never going to be a good choice though was he?
9 Fine Gael nailed on now!
Fianna Fail to merge with LDs…
9. Lab/FF/Green coalition?
Front Pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Friday-National-Newspaper-Papers-Front-Pages-Splash/Media-Gallery/200902215222193?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15222193_Friday_National_Newspaper_Papers_Front_Pages_Splash
race-obsessed Newsnight “Harry on diversity course”
Sensible Bloke making the point: Harry is out there to shoot and bomb brown-skinned people, not to be forced to tiptoe around what he calls them…
CLASSIC!!!!
St Georges Day banned. Is it really true?
How $h!te is this !? Toe-curlingly embarrassing…
Ave it, Oracle already posted the front pages! I guess you will not buy any papers tomorrow.
Significant that Prescott’s attitude to Mandy hasn’t softened at all.
Now what have we here then,
Financial Services Authority staff to get £33m of bonuses and pay top-ups
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5721401.ece
15. Oo-er, BNP landslide must be on the cards…
Spectator guy on Newsnight sounding like the sensible Dr. Goebbels…
“PC nonsense is a pre-Depression phenomenon. We can’t afford it any more”…
12. I take it you mean FG Rod?!
I don’t think the numbers are there, there are 166 seats in the Dail and the breakdown is as follows;
FF 77 (Add in the 2 former PD’s to make it 79)
FG 51
Lab 20
Green 6
SF 4
Ind 5
Speaker 1
FG/Lab/Grn gives 77 seats, not enough for a majority unless some of the Independents can be brought on board, independents in Irish politics generally tend to be free lance Fianna Failers, although one of them is Michael Lowry, a former FG minister who has a pretty colourful history! They could govern as a minority government in the Scottish style on an issue by issue basis. However if the polls stay favourable and if the Greens walk out on Cowen, FG and Lab may prefer to go for an election and get a clear mandate. Personally I hope that happens because if there is any party that deserves to be smashed at the ballot boxes it’s Fianna Fail!
While pushing the $1,000,000,000,000 stimulus bill at the Caterpillar Plant in East Peoria, Illinois today, Our Great Leader told the crowd: “We’ve gotta get serious about living within our means instead of leaving debt for our children and grandchildren.”
‘And we’re gonna get serious just as soon as this one trillion dollar bill is enacted…’
FF’s decline is remarkable but Irish Labour’s leap of 10 points from a base of 17 is even more so. What’s the reason for that (apart from envy over the success of British Labour, of course)?
What does the turmoil in Irish politics do to the chances of the “Treaty” getting a yes vote next time out?
Unlike here, its perfectly viable that an Irish coalition could go down under just simple weight of problems.
Finding a trigger issue to inspire the old vote of confidence is they key. If the government is to fall it’ll be Europe or murky goings ons with the banks getting into some seriously dodgy territory.
If it happened say in the next year Fianna Fail may forget it, theyd go down to a beating.
274 previous thread - thanks Roger. My semi-final is in two weeks’ time.
Back in the USA . . .
US Senator JUDD GREGG (R-NH) has asked President Obama to withdraw his nomination as Secretary of Commerce. Reason is (apparently) tensions between JG and O administration re: stimulus (Gregg voted No) and US Census Bureau (in charge of the 2010 Census, which the GOP has fecked up massively, both on purpose and just because Bushies fecked up EVERYTHING due to mindnumbing incompentence).
No doubt Russ is chortling. BUT still think that Obama is suffering less from bipartisan follies than is GOP. Only time will tell.
“What’s it going to be then, eh?”
“What’s it all about?”
“What’s up, doc?”
re 23 yes, just imagine the shock of a LD jump of 10% points in the next poll. Would Gordon even make the G20 summit under that scenario?
23. The party leader Eamon Gilmore is widely seen as being more effective than FG’s Enda Kenny. He has been taking Cowen apart in the Dail. Although it’s not in the article I linked to I heard a radio report about it saying that Gilmore is currently the most popular politician in Ireland and Labour’s surge must in large part be down to that.
23. Economy.
Monty Don is being patronising
I obviously didn’t realise who Liam Byrne was before this (I must have been confusing him with Jim Murphy). He comes across as a really nice guy. Unfortunately, it’s an Iain Duncan Smith kind of nice.
24. The last poll I heard showed support was surging into the 60%’s. The financial crisis seems to have made people aware how dependent they are on Europe. Of course, the polls before the last referendum showed a yes vote and the campaign has not begun properly yet. If the Cowen government is still going come the vote, people may well use it as an excuse to sink the boot in even further!
Oh I what the ground to shallow up to and die. I flick over to QT, and within 5 minutes, I get a munchkin voice Tory, Monty Don banging on about Climate Change, government man going on about targets and then telling us that it will be solved because we have Obama in the WhiteHouse. Head Desk Bang
26 was called away so missed last half - well done.
17 might buy the Star!
Fianna Fail have won 500 GEs in a row (apart from 1981) so to se them 3rd is a huge shock!
Oh, if only, if only….
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/sport-headlines/johnson-unveils-horribly-foul%11mouthed-olympic-slogan-200902121575/
any news on waddon?
any news on waddon?
Good god, that is horrible from Prezza!
It’s so obvious that the Conservatives are much more effective at marketing using new media - one look round the political blogosphere will tell you that.
I suppose it’s because their core demographic is more likely to be blogging and posting messages and so on, which means they have a ready-made field army to take up the baton and attack the government.
Labour are deluded if they think they can rival that inherent advantage. But I suppose they are right to have a go.
39/40. Robert.
Mutterings on Vote-2007 that it’s neck and neck.
37. It’s quite a sobering thought that if Ireland had had FPTP, there would probably have been virtually unbroken one party rule since the early 1930’s!
38 - sensational!
“London is one of the world’s great cities and it will ‘host the f**k out of the Olympics’”
38 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
43 hasnt it been almost like that anyway?!
PDs = LOL
Why is LabourList still calling itself a ‘beta’ on its header? I thought the ‘official launch’ was today.
This Week has a Tory celeb on. Only taken 5 years.
Is the woman from Respect on QT standing as a candidate anywhere?
Was the bush fires in Australia a terrorist incident???
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/4603207/Australian-brush-fires-Police-release-suspect-photo.html
I bet i am not the only one raising this question. The Australians dont stand around for people messing them about.
46. The header has been changing all day. Probably depends where it is cached.
40. Reports of a tory hold by 220 on vote 2007
I must confess that I have changed my mind about Justine Greening.
She now sounds very pedestrian and is begining to look bot like. Sad really.
48. Scott P.
Is that the same muppet (Birmingham councillor) who was on Newsnight last night?
53. I didn’t see Newsnight, but she is a Birmingham councillor, so probably
52 agreed - she didn’t impress
53. Yes, she’s on retainer for the BBC. Her suggestions for solutions yesterday were preposterous, god knows how she became the leader of a party.
Apparently Labour win by 300 in Enfield. Fantastic result if so.
This Week is a bit of a let down these days. Anthony whassisname sharpening knives for Gordon Brown? I mean, come on!
I’m honestly getting fed up by the increasingly shrill tone of coverage of politics these days. There are big, BIG issues going on and I don’t want constant caricatures about the government, I want a bit of balance.
Ave It - Previous thread “Is Anna Friel up for anything? I quite like her…”
I heard she was up for anything but it may have just been idle gossip…
52 She said “at the end of the day” at least five times. Poor effort.
That said - no-one shone tonight. QT was very pedestrian.
54. Was 2nd in Sparkhill last time. 3000 behind.
wadden
con 1462
lab 1222
re 62. So John Loony got it wrong.
57 Where are you hearing that?
62. Gaz.
This result shows that the Tories can’t win a majority at the next general election.
63 pretty close for the cons numbers though
63 - Just a tad!
Damn, my pseudo HTML tag got swallowed!
It was supposed to say “/ Mark Senior” after that…
64 - friend who is at the count.
69 Thanks - nothing elsewhere yet…
If Huhne supported the banning of the Dutch MP then he’s a twat. I’m assuming it is good news for Clegg as Mike Smithson might just be thinking now the party made the right choice…
Wadden result looks almost identical to 2006 in vote shares for the main parties, but turnout down a third all round.
Apparrently, LibDems 4th behind the BNP in Wadden, Croydon
70 - oh indeed. Passing along by-election gossip from activists is part of the fun of a Thursday night, whether it turns out to be correct or not
74 Donpaskini, it’s the ONLY fun! Keep up the good work, you chaps!
Con 1462
Labour 1222
BNP 157
Lib Dem 150
Green 115
UKIP 48
PC 13
OMRLP 11
Turnout 28.6%
From vote-2007.
76. Martin Day will love this!
Mike. I wouldn’t have been subjected to that if you hadn’t linked to it. It’s awful. I like John Prescott but that was truly dreadful.
Prescott is a one off who has a real and “unique” talent to express and support both himself and the crucial, core Labour Party opinion that he represents.
The vitriol poured on “Two Jags” etc. is unfair in my opinion. Yes, he achieved high office and it’s rewards and privileges. Yes, he had an affair and ran into trouble with the media. But he strikes me as a man who has tried to stay true to his principles and to sincerely represent his electorate.
Ironically, for someone who is accused of mangling the English language, he is one of the few politicians who can still engage effectively with the public. For me, this clip is not such an occasion.
Despite his garbled Engish, he is a very good communicator. Not when fronting such an awfully misjudged effort as this but when being himself, off the cuff, genuine and sincere.
76 Why were Plaid Cymru standing in Croydon???
At the same time that the White House and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are praising Arlen Specter to the skies for his bipartisan spirit in supporting the stimulus bill that will soon come up for a vote, the senator who’s in charge of managing the 2010 election efforts for the Senate Dems, Robert Menendez, held a press conference announcing how he’s targeting Specter in 2010!
“Asked whether he had consulted the White House about going so aggressively against Mr. Specter (who has been a fairly reliable ally as a moderate Republican), Mr. Menendez said:
We are going to be working with the White House across this entire map. I’m sure that President Obama and those who advise him clearly understand the value of finally getting over 60 votes in the United States Senate after what they have gone through. And we will make collective judgments about how best to achieve that.”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/smacking-specter-when-his-vote-matters/
Is it really the best time for Sen. Menendez to be training his partisan guns on Specter?
79. Marquee Mark.
Con 1462 46.0% (+2.8%)
Lab 1222 38.5% (+0.8%)
BNP 157 4.9% (dns)
LD 150 4.7% (-2.8%)
Grn 115 3.6% (-5.6%)
UKIP 48 1.5% (dns)
People’s Choice 13 0.4% (dns)
OMRLP 11 0.3% (dns)
[PAA, whoever they are -2.4%]
Change in vote share is, of course, slightly dodgy as it was last contested as a three-seat election.
There is a by-election in South Northamptonshire - Grange Park ward
Any news on that?
82.
Grange Park
Paul Farrow (Conservative) 407 votes
Shaun Hope (Liberal Democrat) 128 votes
The turnout was 19.15 per cent
From our good friend Andrea on vote-2007.
What Westminster seat is Waddon in?
Just found the answer out for myself!
Paul Farrow (Conservative) 407 votes
Shaun Hope (Liberal Democrat) 128 votes
(it was uncontested last time round)
80. Arlen Specter, the man who gave us that acme of Historical Truth - “The Magic Bullet”….
The ’single bullet theory’ - the bullet in question did not need magical powers; it behaved just like any other bullet would if it was fired at the right time. Arlen Specter was not the sole developer of the theory which came out of several discussions between Warren Commission staff attorneys.
So far so good for the Tories in tonight by’s then?
O/T - Just seen the frontpage of The Sun and I’m utterly shocked.
89. Why? What are they saying?
87. Oh, I see, a bullet that leaves far more bits of itself inside Connally, than which added to “The Magic Bullet” would constitute a pristine unfired bullet…
A bullet that was not “needed” until the Warren Commission were forced to concede that a third man (Tague) was hit in Dealey Plaza…
A bullet which is the sine qua non of the “lone assassin hypothesis”…
88 Depends if the rumour is true that Labour have gained Enfield Jubilee .
90. GIN.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Friday-National-Newspaper-Papers-Front-Pages-Splash/Media-Gallery/200902215222193?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15222193_Friday_National_Newspaper_Papers_Front_Pages_Splash
OK, just seen it. Yes, shocking. Yet somehow…. Not….?
90 - They have a pic of a 13 yr old boy and his child… its a particulalry young looking 13 yr old!
94 - I know what you mean. It is pretty grim comment on society though.
92. Well Mark, the Tories are defending four seats. As we know by now (don’t we?) local elections, local issues, I think if the Tories can get out of tonight with three out of four seats held, they will be doing very well.
Just watched the Prescott video - bad, but not half as bad as I was expecting from some of the comments. There was even one mildly funny line - “are you sensitive to touch, Peter?”
If you want to see an example of a truly diabolical v-log, look no further than Nick Clegg’s diabolical ‘end of term’ message last July.
96. Indeed. There is an entire underclass that just seems totally seperate and alien to the rest of us. I don’t for the life of me understand how a 13 year old child can become a father, but then I suspect my life and my values would be completely alien to him and his family. Somehow this divide has got to be briged, but I really don’t know how the next government can even begin to go about it?
97. GIN: I think if the Tories can get out of tonight with three out of four seats held, they will be doing very well.
Not least because a closer look at the 2006 result for Jubilee shows that it would only be an on-paper loss:
Lab 1543
Con 1539
Lab 1521
——–
Lab 1437
Con 1431
Con 1281
Green 468
99. Workfare. Take them outside the bubble they live in.
81. PAA = Pensions Action Alliance
Waddon, Croydon
Con 1462 (46.0%) (+2.8%)
Lab 1222 (38.5%) (+0.9%)
BNP 157 (4.9%)
LD 150 (4.7%) (-2.9%)
Green 115 (3.6%) (-5.6%)
UKIP 48 (1.5%)
PCh 13 (0.4%)
OMRLP 11 (0.3%)
Total 3178
spoilt 11
discrepancy 3
total 3192
electorate 11,173
turnout 28.56%
My prediction from 24th January:
Lab 1689
Con 1456
BNP 388
LD 227
Grn 169
UKIP 66
OMRLP 17
PCh 14
My prediction from 12th February:
Con 1300
Lab 1210
LD 190
BNP 170
Grn 110
UKIP 85
OMRLP 16
PCh 15
The 11 spoilt votes were boring. There were 9 with votes for 2 or 3 candidates, and 2 blank ones. This time there weren’t any comments or signatures or essays or papers where someone had scrawled “BMP”.
100 It was more than a paper loss majority almost 300 .
IRISH POLL
1. Note that 10% of support/vote is undistributed, am guessing is undecided/don’t know/other/buzz off.
1. Like UK Labour Party, Fianna Fail is discredited - but not (yet) destroyed - by its checkered career over many years in government. And in Dublin as in London, a charesmatic natural politico has been replaced by a technocatic understudy, with less than rave reviews, though hardly any deny that by the end of their road shows in London & Dublin, Tony/Bertie were prime candidates for the Gong Show.
2. Thing that is really strkiing to me, is that Fine Gail has actually DECLINED albeit from a good performance (for FG) in the mid 30%s Still, looks like Irish Labour owes major debt to FG for being so unattractive to voters fed up to the backteeth with the Soldiers o’ Destiny.
3. Also very interesting is lack of advance of the Green Party and Sinn Fein. Greens are in the government so are doing good by standing still. If and when they break with FF, they clearly have some potential to pick up votes
4. As for SF, they are still licking their wounds a bit after their flop (or rather failure to advance) in last Irish general election. SF has potential to advance (esp. with unemployed in housing estates) but this potential is also limited.
5. Which leads us to the Irish Labour Party, clearly on a roll even without my personal presence and aura (one of the major reasons for their record showing in the 1992 general election.) Note current LP leader is Eamonn Gilmore, an old “Stickie” from the Democratic Left party that merged with Labour. In some senses he is better situated than were either Pat Rabitte or Ruiri “Ho Chi” Quinn to appeal beyond Labour’s base vote - like Dick Spring back in the early 1990s.
6. Way to early to count FF down and out. Like the UK Labour Party, victory at the general election is NOT out the question. By same token, very likely that best thing would be a significant BUT less-than-crushing defeat. Giving the old war horse both a wap across the eye & a spell in pasture - both positive in their own way - while maintaining the potential to regain power at the NEXT general election.
99 - I just know that if I had come home at that age having got a girl pregnant or my sisters had come back pregnant we would have been bounced off of the walls. I don’t think my parents would ever have let us live down the shame.
87. Nice to see you posting here anyhow, David.
Have you updated some of your excellent lists, with reference to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_of_the_house#List_of_Babies_of_the_House_of_Commons
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_with_the_shortest_service
?
203 - why slump in ORML vote (a trend you recognized but underestimated)?
104. Mark Senior: It was more than a paper loss majority almost 300 .
It was a big on-paper loss.
109 It was a big loss period . Another week where Conservatives underperform their opinion poll ratings .
110. Mark Senior: Another week where Conservatives underperform their opinion poll ratings .
I wrote your post for you at 65.
Prescott is the biggest political joke ever. What a complete offput. Labour should keep him along with odious Harman.
105. If Fianna Fáil lost their leading party status, wouldn’t that be a huge symbolic moment that might have long-term consequences? They’ve have had plenty of spells out of office, but that would be a different matter. I suppose we can probably take it as read they’re not going to finish third, whatever this snapshot of opinion shows!
113 FF are true Irish Nationalist Party and probably remain a leading force even when not in power.
Yay for the Enfield result (now someone else apart from me has reported it). Excellent candidate and well deserved.
O/T - Police have arrested a city trader in a fraud investigation.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/essex/7887478.stm
113 - It took FF and Ireland to adjust to late 20th century reality: that FF was incapable of forming a government majority without recourse to 3rd party TDs.
Now it’s going to take FFers and Irish voters time to adjust to potential new reality: that FF is no longer guaranteed to be the largest party in the Dail.
How does one explain the Conservative underperformance, Mark? Is it that voters are prepared to vote for Cameron, but not for his local representatives?
This would fit in with OGH´s viw that Cameron is personally a great boost for his party, I suppose.
On the other hand, it would suggest to me that the Conservative brand has not yet been sufficiently decontaminated (from their point of view, of course).
118 - I don’t think Cameron is a particularly “great boost” for his party. His personal poll ratings, remember, are pretty dire. As bad as Brown’s in most respects, if not worse.
The opinion polls show anger at the government, not enthusiasm for the Tories or Cameron.
118. There was no under performance, if you look at the figures, and the history of the ward. It has only ever returned one tory, and that was in a multi member election, the others came behind, it voted narrowly for livingstone, and the obviously talented local tory who was able to win by a tiny number of votes died, according to a poster on vote07 he was only 31 years old when he died, crikey…
118. Or perhaps the voters in that particular ward are fed up over their rubbish collections or something? Individually these by elections are almost impossible to extrapolate a national trend. Even collectively, over many weeks, you can only build up a very basic over what is happening. Be careful how much notice you take of Mark Senior. This time last year he was harping on pretty much every week about how the Tories were underperforming in by elections, then came the national local elections on May 1st and the Tories swept to a stunning victory - After which Mark went very quiet for several months but hes returned to his old ways again, unfortunatly.
“How does one explain the Conservative underperformance, Mark?”
People tell the pollsters one thing, and do another…
It’s happened before, IIRC
Can someone post results from Enfield Jubilee?
BTW would be great name for a neocockney musical (something akin to Mama Mia?) featuring scarysmart wideboy & fetchingfey weirdgirl (or visa versa whatever) finding tears, beers, leers, etc in the Little Wen that’s Enfield.
IF such drivvel makes the West End stage I demand 10% off the top. (And will gladly assign 1/2 my theatrical rights to any pber who can make it so!)
Reflecting on my generally well-received guest-slot…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/11/could-these-38-seats-be-where-the-uns-wont-apply/
robust, tried and tested, statistical inference
http://www.rss.org.uk/pdf/CurticeFirthOct2007.pdf
suggests that, assuming a 60 seat Tory majority [where the spreads are now], 10-11 of the 38 highlighted seats will fail to be captured by the Tories, despite the UNS prediction.
Fill yer boots…
Thie whole Labour on the interweb thingy doesn’t really work for two big reasons:
1. Labour is about central command and control. Top down. Megaphone politics. Draper’s joke of a site is a prime example. The medium itself is, of course, completely the other way around - perfect for an army of Davids to do their own thing. ALl the top sites are private efforts.
2. What the f**k could they possibly have to say that anyone wants to listen to anymore?
Are you still around, Rod? If so, I will write you a couple of lines about those seats where I think the Tories might poll above their weight. At least sme possible criteria for identifying them. It was what you asked for, if I remember correctly.
126. Go ahead, I’m all ears…
“Tory Tough Nuts” what a disturbing image!
128. It’ll be Tory “Numb-Nuts” the day after polling-day…
OK. I´m writing….
129 Rod - are you prophesying that Dave won’t be PM by summer 2010?
131. I’m prophesying he won’t be PM ever…
132 Wow! What do you see coming aloing electorally in the next few years?
133. The bien-pensants’ nightmare - a party that actually represents “ornary people”….
It’s happened before, you know, in similar circs…
132. Rod Crosby: I’m prophesying he won’t be PM ever…
There’s the wishful thinking again.
Less than 16 months for events, dear boy, events to save you from the terrible spectre of the Evil Tories in government.
135. I don’t think the Tories are evil - just irrelevant…
136 Rod. Sorry to be a bore. I’m not having a go at your political views - quite at the polar opposite of my own though they may be. I’m just genuinely interested to know what you think is going to happen at the GE and what basis you have for that view.
137. HP.. HP.. HP..
or HP..
This follows on from a few speculative thoughts last night provoked by Rod’s excellent article.
My interest (for those who missed it) centred on those seats where the incumbent factor might be brought into play. I speculated that the successful election of a new MP might be related to his ability to inspire the troops, both before and immediately after his election. This would have an impact on the party´s ability to win the seat and to retain it at the following election.
On this basis, I saw Cheltenham, Cornwall North, Leeds NW, and Camborne as remaining in the Lib Dem column, while other Lib Dem-held seats on Rod´s table, with long-established MPs, might possibly be more vulnerable to a Tory challenge.
In contrast, almost all the Labour-held seats on Rod´s list are represented by long-time MPs, who seem set to defend their seats. However, I would speculate that their own initial enthusiasm has worn off, and they no longer inspire their helpers to the same extent. So the local Labour machine is a bit worn-out.
Rod suggested tonight that the Tories would win some of the seats on his list, but that others might escape the deluge. I proposed last night that the four Lib Dem seats mentioned above would escape, but the most vulnerable Labour seats would fall.
However, if we invert the argument: there would be some seats currently held by Labour where the MP is “tired” and his supporters are no longer enthused. These, I would suggest, might be the seats (at present thought to be out of range) where the Tories might snatch unexpected victories.
Add to this the fact that the Tories are in triumphant mood and that their helpers are highly motivated (even if not yet to the extent of a lawn full with envelope-addressing Tory ladies, as was fondly remembered on PBC the other day). But certainly their tails are up. While Labour helpers cannot be other than demoralized by the antics of their supposedly Labour Government.
How can these vulnerable Labour seats be identified? Well, if the local organisation is weak they will be losing seats at the local government level. Which is where I fall back on the much derided analysis of Mark Senior and others.
Tory spinners on PBC are wont to say that if Labour loses its councillors, it will lose its roots. I would put it the other way round. If any party is losing council seats, it has already lost its roots (ie helpers). So local election results are, for me, a very good guide to the relative strength of a party´s organization strength.
On this basis, Sheffield Hallam, Eastleigh, Westmorland etc are way out of range for the Tories. It is interesting - is it not? - that it was in precisely in its held and target seats that the Liberal Democrats did best in the last round of local elections
A National Audit Office report said it typically took 16 weeks to recruit a new civil servant, with internal costs of up to £1,921.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7886983.stm
What the b###y hell are they doing that means it costs that much to employ somebody? Are Guardian adverts really that expensive?
Probably they are talking in term of man-hours, Oracle.
Also reports that in some departments 52% of civil service recruits left within a year of being taken on.
Wonder which ones? Wonder which ministers are real life Alan B’Stard then? I mean things have to be really bad if half the work force bu##er off within the year given a cushty well paid blameless job for life with gold plated pension.
139. Nice-balanced, and well-written, but you seem to have identified further seats [beyond my cautious analysis] which the Tories won’t win….
Where are the seats they could win, over and above UNS?
Thanks, Rod. And only one misprint that I could identify!
To answer your question, I don´t know. It depends on the level of the oraganisation and motivation of each local party. And this I can detect (as can all Peebies) only via the local election results, which are public knowledge; and via the length of service of the sititng MP (ditto).
I don´t take all that much interest in Labour-Tory dogfights, I confess, so almost anybody here could provide us with a list of sitting Labour MPs, who have been there for more than 10 years, and whose councillor base has been devastated recently, far better than I could. I would see these as the best prospects for shock Tory gains.
On Lib Dem prospects, I do have some inside knowledge in some cases (as does OGH too) but it would not be appropriate to share this with Tory Party activists. Only what is in the public domain (at least by interpretation).
But your request, on the thread that followed your post, did ask for criteria to identify vulnerable seats, rather than their names.
142. Liam Byrne from the sounds of this,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7739915.stm
144. Ok, basically you’re saying
“You’ll never know in advance those seats where the Tories might score an unexpected hit, because it would be “treason” to reveal them, and only us - the Tories enemies - truly know our own weaknesses…”
Oh well, I guess that leaves me with the job of doing it again!
The winning Tory in Waddon is RATHER presentable:
http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/local/croydonnews/4123232.Waddon_Tory_winner_hits_out_at__nasty__Labour_party/
I’ll avoid making any smutty jokes referencing the constituency name.
And she’s a true Tory:
http://www.biogs.com/castaway/clare.html
Asked by the BBC, whom do you most admire, Clare Hilley responded: “a difficult choice between Margaret Thatcher and Elizabeth I.”
Another dishy photo here:
http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/1241989.conservative_wannabe_is_castaway/
Numerous photos here posing with overbred Tories:
http://londonsouthcf.blogspot.com/
She’s already had a bit of ‘affirmative action’ (no innuendo intended)
http://devilskitchen.me.uk/2008/02/conservative-future-present-hilarity.html
Clearly she has many fine assets to offer the Conservative party:
http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00024/F_200703_March10Edim_24524a.jpg
re: Tory “Tough Nuts” logically these will be offset to some (as yet unknown) extent by Labour “Rotten Fruits” that is, seats currently held by Labour that should be safe BUT which fall nonetheless to Conservatives as next GE.
Back in 1970, Labour’s Jennie Lee lost Cannock to the Tories with an above-average swing, and famously noted that “it’s not the same Cannock.” To which Cannockites replied, she’s not the same Jenny Lee. Both statements were true, and each had a bearing on the result.
Possible significant factor at next UK general election: how many “Mike Smithson” Lib Dems will vote tactically AGAINST Labour and FOR the Tories?
Of course, Rod. But only in part. I am not a member of the Labour Party or of the Tory Party, so in those cases I have no knowledge whatsoever, except what night be inferred by anybody from what is already in the public domain.
So commenting on Labour-held seats (currently depressed and vulnerable) is fair game for me. Commenting on Tory-held seats (where the incumbent is complacent and/or idle) is also fair game.
Commenting on Lib Dem-held seats, on the other hand, is off limits I´m afraid, because I do have some inside knowledge about some of them. Applying the criteria I outlined above, however, does suggest that some are beyond the range of Tory aspirations, and I have named three of them.
If your criteria are different, of course, your conclusions may aalso be different. I suspect that some of the more rational and persistent Tory posters, those who think that Tories will inevitably win everything, would cetainly come to different conclusions.
Labour “Rotten Fruits”
I thought Mandelson was in the House of Lords?
Enfield Jubilee byelection:
Lab 1346
Cons 1049.
Lib Dem 69
Green 60
UKIP 59
Independent 41
155. So after the whiff of anti semitism we now have mild homophobia as well ? presumably they didn’t die in the gas chambers either ?
157. I know I wouldn’t want to be trapped in a gas chamber along with a whiff, even a mild one!
How about you?
157: Now now, it’s perfectly legitimate to mock nasty people (e.g., Brown, Mandelson) for comedic purposes. Not homophobia, just a joke.
159. Do you work for the BBC, Auntie?
For forty days and forty nights everything has been awful for Labour.Not just the narrative but the MONEY as well.
Since the beginning of 2009 scarcely a shilling has been wagered on Labour or against the Tories and not only that,it is now taken for granted that the GE will be in 2010.
This morning has provided the first tiny glimmer of light amidst the gloom.
It seems against all the indications and all the noise that people are prepared to go out and vote Labour on a dank day and an even danker night.
Perhaps we all live inside a very large bubble on here.
“people are prepared to go out and vote Labour on a dank day and an even danker night.”
How many postal votes were there?
“We’re sorry. The video you requested is no longer available.”
Heh…