Is this how the crisis gets linked to Number 10?
February 11th, 2009
How much was a key Brown advisor behind the HBOS fall?
The appearance before the commons committee of the bank bosses and the story of the whistle-blower who tried to warn of the dangers of HBOS’s strategy get wide coverage this morning but it’s only really the Times and the Independent that highlight the political dangers to the government.
For until now the main charge against the PM was that he was Chancellor during a critical decade when many of the problems developed. That’s not really stuck because it’s too generalised and not specific enough.
That could change following yesterday’s accounts relating to Sir James Crosby, the ex-CEO of HBOS and now the deputy chairman of the Financial Services Authority (FSA).
What could be problematical for Brown is that Crosby got a knighthood three years on the for his work in financial services and this was on the Government’s recommendation. Last year he carried out a major review of the mortgage market for the Treasury.
This is how Andrew Grice and Nigel Morris in the Indy report it:“The Government’s crisis over the banks deepened last night when one of Gordon Brown’s key advisers was accused of sacking a whistleblower who predicted that reckless lending by banks would end in disaster..The record of Sir James….was called into question in explosive evidence to MPs by a senior official who raised the alarm that the bank was growing too fast and over-reaching itself..Paul Moore, a barrister who was the head of regulatory risk at HBOS from 2002 to 2005, told the Treasury Select Committee that Sir James was the “original architect” of HBOS’s doomed expansion.”
My guess is that David Cameron will try to use this in his allocated six questions during PMQs today. It has the potential to be highly damaging.
Betting markets for the next general election.
Today on PB: I’m in London and will have very little access to my laptop. It’s possible that posts could get held up in moderation for longer periods than usual. A guest slot by Rod Crosby (no relation to Sir James) is scheduled to be published this afternoon and later there should be Roger’s guide to the Oscars. Last year he got it 100% right and those who bet on his predictions did very nicely.
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PMQs should be fun.
Rod Crosby (no relation to Rod Crosby), I hope…
It would be ve y surprising if the Conservatives didn’t have “advisers” who were intimately involved in the troubles in the financial sector.
Does anyone know what time the economic data is due out in the UK this morning? I’m interested in the minutes from the last BoE meetings (quantative easing hints) and the jobless numbers.
I’m expecting grim news on both counts.
The Idiot also got regular warnings from the IMF and chose to ignore them too.
Martin Wolf in the FT casting doubts on the Obama presidency, given the poor reception to the stimulus and Geitner’s proposals for fixing the banking system:
If Mr Obama does not fix this crisis, all he hopes from his presidency will be lost. If he does, he can reshape the agenda. Hoping for the best is foolish. He should expect the worst and act accordingly.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ebea1b8-f794-11dd-81f7-000077b07658.html
..and Redwood has been banging on about this for years. Of course Redwood not only talks detailed sense on matters financial but he is also an uberTory - so the Idiot hates him with a passion…
…not to mention another of Gordon Brown’s advisors Sir Derek Wanless, who chaired Northern Rock’s Risk and Audit committees.
Obviously I picked the wrong night to have a minor spat with Rod Crosby - he’s about to be given the official stamp of approval again!
…in fact let’s just be clear - there’s a whole bunch warnings, advices, challenges, etc that the Idiot has ignored over the years and you don’t need the investigatory powers of Sherlock Holmes to catalogue them. As I said yesterday, the Idiot’s key political skill over the last decade has been in hiding his own incompetence. Now that others are minded to poohpooh this and to dig it all out they will be able to find all sorts of damning ‘revelations’ about stuff he ignored. It’s all going to come out of the woodwork…
Is this a first? Nobody saying “First” in the first ten comments.
10 - Well obviously not, thanks to you!
BTW on Israel - why is it always described as having “an extreme form of Proportional Representation”? As far as i can ascertain Israel has the only true form of PR, and all other systems are hybrids.
11. alex: As far as i can ascertain Israel has the only true form of PR
It’s not true PR as there’s a 2% threshold and they use the d’Hondt method (I believe).
True PR would simply be one seat per (100/n) per cent of the popular vote, where n is the number of seats to be elected, which in the case of the Knesset is 120. This would give one seat per 0.83% of the popular vote.
True PR is probably (off the top of my head) impossible as there would be rounding errors. Thus “proportional representation” in real systems is a relative term.
Meanwhile, I see that today is the Great Day of Wishful Thinking. The Dollybots will no doubt be tuning in.
Chris(from Bethesda) said “No the Cross was widely used as early as the second century”
Of course. It was used even earlier. Jesus was even crucified on one. Naturally, early christians would have had crosses with representations of Jesus.
However, Constantine introduced the Corporate Brand.
Chris(from Bethesda) said “No the Cross was widely used as early as the second century”
Of course. It was used even earlier. Jesus was even crucified on one. Naturally, early christians would have had crosses with representations of Jesus.
However, Constantine introduced the Corporate Brand.
(better)
Rod Crosby the anti semite who spent last night spamming the site?
8 “Obviously I picked the wrong night to have a minor spat with Rod Crosby - he’s about to be given the official stamp of approval again!”
If the questionable Rod Crosby is to be a moderator, its probably a goog time to take some time off.
More worrying is Rod having access to posters’ credentials.
17 - I don’t think guest articles equate to being a moderator.
17 - I don’t think Rod is getting moderator privileges, he’s just posting a guest article. Our host is presumably putting it up in the interests of having competing views heard, given Rod’s unusual but carefully thought-through views on the likely outcome of the next election.
17 - I doubt he’ll get access to peoples emails.
Imagine how busy he’d be doing genealogical research on their surnames for the next decade or so.
19 - Some might take issue with the extent to which they are “carefully thought through”. Most would describe it as statistical mumbo-jumbo.
21 - It’s backward-looking statistical analysis. I don’t agree with it either, but it’s not much more disreputable than actuarial prediction. Mumbo-jumbo is a bit harsh.
19. antifrank: carefully thought-through views
That’s an interesting term for “the Evil Tories must be kept out of power at any cost; how can I come up with some numbers that show they can’t possibly win?”…
22 - selective backward-looking statistical analysis.
“…it’s not much more disreputable than actuarial prediction”
That’s not a great advert!
Whatever Rod’s views on other issues, his original article arguing for a hung parliament was one of the most memorable on the site; I look forward to his latest contribution.
I have a lot to say on the subject of Rod Crosby.
I try to see the best in the worst posters especially when they are as controversial as RC.It would be churlish not to admit he doesn’t have another hat.
I love his support for the NOM Party ! Under his aegis they have drifted from 2.5 to 3.75.
He has a thought out and consistent view and provokes dicussion and argument.That has to be a plus.
25 - to quote a famous court of appeal judgment, “as a method to providing a reliable guide to individual behaviour patterns, or to future economic and political events, the predictions of an actuary can be only a little more likely to be accurate (and will certainly be less entertaining) than those of an astrologer”.
For balance i should say that it’s not just Rod’s statistical theories that i take issue with. I take equal issue with more popular assertions on this site (eg. mid-term polls swing back towards the Tories by election day). Employing such analyses is fine for discrediting others (eg. the above example is perfectly acceptable when restricted to being used to challenge “mid-term polls swing back towards the Govt of the Day”), but should not be given any particular status in their own right.
And the key is the tiny sample sizes on which such analyses are made. Give me 100 UK elections demonstrating the justification for such theories and i’ll take a look. Give me 10 and you’ll have to come up with a bit more than just the statistics.
28 - It must be difficult when your spreadsheets are set up to accommodate six million disappearances from the electoral roll.
I’ll be asleep when the pseudo-analysis is published, so I’ll just say this now.
There hasn’t been an election where there was a public mood against for a change from a Labour government to a Conservative government with a strong third party at least since WWII and arguably ever. Therefore we have no past data points at which we can look if the public mood remains the same. (Of course, if that mood changes, Labour will win a fourth term, but that needs little analysis).
Strike that “against” after “public mood”, damn proofing
31 - Good post. Succinct and to the point (and more importantly, better than mine).
With all the evidence now beginning to emerge, it would seem that Gordon’s reputation as an idiot is well earned. Jeremy Clarkson called it just right.
It seems that Gordon’s complete inability to listen to anyone’s advice combined with his drive to tinker is a lethal combination. The worrying thing is that he is still effectively the Chancellor today and given his past record then his current actions will result in similar disasters.
What will it take to make Labour ditch this fool?
I have a strong theory about the next GE which is based on nothing other than the silly thoughts in my head.
The difference is that I will be wagering large sums of money on those silly thoughts.
If anyone else thinks my thoughts are silly they are always welcome to pay me a visit at Betfair.
34 - I suppose if he has a complete inability to listen to advice, then attacks on him for who he appoints as advisers are a bit pointless?
34 - A general election defeat!
35 ..and what theory would that be?
My impression was that Rod’s article would be about the BNP’s prospects.
…Guido’s has been down for hours now. I wonder if the Idiot has had MI5 block him somehow…
39. Sean Fear: My impression was that Rod’s article would be about the BNP’s prospects.
You could be right, but it’s not the impression I got from this comment.
40. Patrick: Guido’s has been down for hours now.
Looks OK to me…
O/T Rotterdam tennis - Korolev to beat Gicquel. Korolev is ten years younger and in the better form, Gicquel lost his qualification match for this tournament and is only in the first round because of a late retirement, Korolev has won both their matches fairy comfortably in straight sets. He is 8/11 with paddypower.com and should be 4/9 or 2/5.
In the San Jose Open I fancy Garcia-Lopez to beat Isner. The Spaniard has done well this year and won’t be worried by Isner’s big serve having beaten him in their only encounter at the same tournament last year. I’d make Garcia-Lopez 4/6 favourite, so the 6/4 with stanjames.com is very appealing.
Rod Crosby - the controversial Majority Denier? I will really look forward to his article after the next election, arguing that despite us all having the results announced in 650 seats, David Cameron didn’t actually achieve a majority of 60 - and there is absolutely no evidence for at least 6,000,000 of the votes…
I also look forward to a guest article from Mark Senior - controversial Recession Denier - on the prospects for growth in the economy in 2009.
And maybe one from myself, well-known Liberal-Democrat Denier of this parish…
44 Or from the Northern Ireland Environment minister - Global Warming denier?
Prescott on Breakfast droning on about banker’s bonuses. He seems to think that the bank bailout automatically invalidates all the contractual obligations that the banks have to pay bonuses to their rank and file employees! He also accuses the banks of being greedy and having abused the stability that Labour gave the! Well John WTF did you do to stop it when you had the chance while in government? Bank bonuses didn’t start last year, the press were full of stories about them for years!
Jesus wept.
46 But the bonus culture was a problem that began in America….
42 Weird. Maybe the Shell firewall just blocked him. I can’t access the Strategy Page either.
45. What people need to know about Sammy Wilson is that he has made a career out of being a wind up artist who loves to goad special interest groups with outrageous remarks. Several years ago he caused a major row by mocking the Irish Language as “a Leprechaun Language.” And from my own experience there is no group of people who take themselves so seriously or are as easy to wind up as environmentalists. He will be loving all the attention he’s got from this. The best way to deal with him is to ignore him and eventually he’ll get bored and go and look for someone else to annoy!
48 Try going through Google. Some weirdness going on with access today, but I got through that way…
49. Thanks for the insight. I saw him speaking in the Heathrow 3rd Runway debate and was shouting nasty things at the TV then!
Incidentally, now that the Tories have their pact with the UUP, does anyone have an insight as to whether they will gain seats back from the DUP at the next election? Could be crucial if things are tight.
34 Hawkeye. What will it take for NickP to ditch this fool? It is referred to on here as “loyalty”, but it is more like “servility”. The country deserves better from its MPs - some element of conscience, surely.
44. Yes what was Mark’s comment ‘The Conservatives are the party of recession’. No wonder his appearences have been brief on here lately.
3 I agree with you, Alex. I don’t think Cameron will make too much of this - it’s still pretty tangental so will not have a particularly big impact, and it is bound to cast a spotlight on the Tories and their advisers. It is inevitable that all main parties will have senior advisers in the financial services sector who are or may become tarnished by the financial crisis. There are plenty of valid criticisms too make of the Government without resorting to yah booing the fact that they took advice from and lauded a man who was subsequently revealed to have played a part in exacerbating the crisis. Continug to take advice from the same man may call into question the judgement of the Government or the ministers involved, but that is a separate matter.
This is the type of story that works best if the opposition either leave it alone or allude to it from time to time in passing, allowing the media to run with it.
Difficult to say. The dream for the Tories and the UUP is that they can attract what are known over here as “The Flymo Men (and Women!)” They are the upper class and upper-middle class Unionist voters who don’t vote because they dislike the sectarian and confrontational nature of politics over here. Just to give you an example, at the last GE, the unionist seat of Strangford (home patch of DUP rabid homophobe Iris Robinson) had a turnout of 53.6%, the neighbouring nationalist seat of South Down had a turnout of 65.4%. The referendum on the Good Friday Agreement was carried mainly because many of these people came out to vote in it, but in the assembly election a month later they stayed at home meaning that the pro-agreement unionist vote fell sharply and Trimble couldn’t command a decisive majority. A large part of the DUP’s strategy is to keep the debate polarized and confrontational so as to keep Flymo Man in the potting shed. Sadly it seems to work, the current executive is widely regarded as a joke but the main reaction I get from people is “I’m not voting again!” ARRGGH! FFS! That’s what they WANT you to do! I wish the Tories luck but any breakthroughs will need time to happen and I don’t expect to see anymore than at most 2 Tory/UUP seats here next time.
53 On one level, Mark is right - the Conservatives are the party of recession. Labour is the party of depression, slump and crash….
55 Thanks again Watcher.
A few years ago I worked with a UUP supporter. He thought that coming over to England to work, he would be getting away from sectarianism and all things related. Found himself at the next desk to a Celtic fan!
Right, bedtime. Try not to flame Rod too hard
Ah well GB isn’t the only one with problems, poor ‘ol Ken has got the sack.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/feb/11/kenneth-clarke-centaurus-capital
R4 Today talking about Labour falling into fourth place - and dead as a mainstream party.
Today it’s Israel. Tomorrow….
60 -
The steady cumulative effect of all the negative news and negative comment is destroying the credibility of the government. This link to the architect of the HBOS downfall is still rather arcane to the ‘Celebrity Big-Brother’ generation.
And, when the big news will be unemployment, I would expect Cameron to deal with this as a peripheral matter - perhaps coming back to it when the story firms up.
On topic. I had a little conversation with Runnymede about banks’ risk controls a couple of weeks ago. We agreed that risk control systems in all the banks are now woefully inadequate and that as usual the most experienced people from the last crisis (1991-93) had all gone. You need to be in a position of some authority, not too high, and be hands on. Meaning mid-40s. All these people have been cut as surplus to requirements. I know this happened with US
banks in the 90s, S&Ls in 80s, Japanese banks in late 90s.
What happens is that the banks come out of the crisis chastenened. They beef up their credit risk management departments. Then a boom comes along. A risk taking bank relaxes their credit controls. The sky doesnt fall. They increase profits and market share. Everyone does it. The most conservative bank doesnt give in until the end. Then just before the peak, the loans department gets control over risk control and caution is thrown to the wind. The last of the old risk controllers are retired.
The whistleblower in question looks like he would have been in the right place (Group head of regulatory risk) and is roughly the right age to actually have been a proper risk guy. If he isnt a nutter (and said things to show said nuttiness), this will hurt the FSA and by extension the government - his warnings sound about right for the kind of warnings that might emanate from a group head of risk.
The weak pound is beginning to boost exports and choke off imports.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/4582972/UK-trade-deficit-narrows-as-weak-sterling-gives-exports-a-boost.html
Hmmm most posters to this site were, dismissive of that happening.
‘Green Shoots’ perhaps?
46 Watcher
Prescott actually claimed on Breakfast that these bankers led us into this mess. And I thought Gordon was in charge!?
Meanwhile another Gordon North of the Border has often spoken of his affection for the Premier League but at both Chelsea and Portsmouth his name is never mentioned.
59. Clarke’s directorships ended months ago. The only one he had left was the Independent. Looks like liberal use of the facts.
64. Coldstone. Actually I posted that yesterday. It’s odd though. The J-curve effect should still be boosting imports and exports orders don’t usually pick up this quickly. I suspect that it may be a blip - although I do expect the currency to have an effect over the medium term.
63. Very good post. Will No 10 be damaged by the excoriating criticism of the FSA’s number two? Possibly, but only if the opposition can tie Brown into it. The best strategy might be to run on a hubris-arrogance-incompetence theme. Brown either didn’t know what he was doing or was running reckless risks with the economy and ignored any evidence that suggested otherwise - and then appointed likeminded people to run his institutions.
Of itself, this is a pretty minor story but it all adds to the narrative and it’s that which generates the public mood. That he was close to Brown at the Treasury just gives the story extra legs.
Clarkson should appologies to all the idiots he compared to Gordon Brown !
67. Aren’t export orders likely to be down at this point because of the recession (no UK growth since 08Q1) rather than the depreciation, which happened later in the year? £7.4bn is still huge though.
I’m sure Cameron will almost certainly go on this and Ed Balls’ comments about the recession being the worst for 100 years. Brown may also be asked to clarify his recession/depression slip last week. Won’t be an easy week for Brown thats for sure.
68. Actually I was thinking that the FSA could be seriously damaged - they did an inquiry into Moore’s allegations and dismissed it. We all know that the FSA suffers from regulatory capture (the industry runs it) and it was Gordon’s baby. That and the fact that Crosby is close to Gordon mean that if Moore is shown to have been ignored in a whitewash, could mean that Gordon’s regulatory regime is dragged into the mud.
Well, the Moore memo ( http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/11/52320/hbos-the-moore-memo/#comments ) certainly has Crosby bang to rights.
71. David Herdson - you mean imports down due to no growth. Possibly. But the J curve effect means that volumes may be flat, but the value is up (you order a fiat from Italy, pay in euros, meaning that the import value in sterling is up).
73 “We all know that the FSA suffers from regulatory capture (the industry runs it) and it was Gordon’s baby”
Isn’t the problem with the FSA that it is and always has been more concerned with consumer protection (endowment mis-selling etc) than banking regulation?
73
Ken
The FSA cannot - in my view - be any more damaged than they are already. In share dealing they are a joke. Insider dealing happens all the time in the UK and the only people caught are small time stuff.
As for banking supervision etc, they are the classic case of shutting stable doors.
They are another body who could be abolished and replaced by 2 men and a dog - with no apparent change.
71
What we are assuming is that the affects of the recession, (depression) will be uniform, as we’ve seen in the past that ‘aint so. For many people and businesses, (as happened in the thirties) this period will be an opportunity.
By and large Balls, (he should really change his name, I see Mrs Hamilton has changed hers by deed poll to, ‘Mrs Battle-Axe) seems to be getting a positive response to his, ‘depression’ remark. Oborne in the Mail seems to be suggesting he should be Chancellor: are they old mates?
74. As I said above, the loans department takes over credit risk department, from the Moore memo:
“2.18 Returning to my story: after I was dismissed and to prove just how seriously HBOS took risk management, I was replaced by a new Group Risk Director who had never carried out a role as a risk manager of any type before. The individual concerned had primarily been a sales manager and was a personal appointment of the CEO against the initial wishes of other Directors. You can’t blame her for accepting the job as it got her on the Group Management Board and shortly afterwards the main Board.”
76. Their remit is both.
75 so the volumne of imports is much lower, the value being higher, which indicates major fall in UK demand. Exports to non-EU countries may well have been priced in dollars or euros and be fulfillment of orders placed before recession impacted non-EU countries (it was US & Europe first).
79. I know their remit is both. What I am suggesting that, and this is how Gordon wished it, that consumer protection (uncovering wicked bankers and supposedly swindled customers) was seen as the more important job. To the point where banking regulation took a back seat.
Rather like Moore’s department did to Retail at HBOS
The endowment mis-selling issue was a classic case of giving consumers a ‘get out of gaol free’ card. One that most of those who received compensation did not deserve. And all at the encouragement of the FSA and a compliant consumer-led media. And at the expense of other policy-holders.
Unepmplyment figs 1.97 million call me a cynic but
78. Yes, but it’s down to the law of averages when we talk about something as macro as trade figures. Exports and imports are lumpy so a single months figures tend to be volatile. If you want more green shoots:
Baltic dry freight index has doubled off the bottom (down only 80% from down 90% from peak).
Halifax house prices up in Jan.
US and UK government bond yields have been rising (a good sign or one that shows people are nervous about issuance?)
I’m negative about things - as I said we are in a bit of a sweet spot at the moment - interest rates are low, but the negative growth and negative prices that they are meant to be combatting arent here. Mortgages repayments have dropped to the floor, but in six months unemployment will be higher and remuneration will have fallen.
There are Statistics and Labour statistics, which are usually wrong and have to be adjusted later.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7882745.stm
82 - Hmm
Unemployment figures are to the end of December
Most of the Woolies people won’t show until January - given the timing of things
Plus there have been lots more announced since then.
The other side of it are where people have been made redundant with a large package, their savings/bank balance stops them from appearing as claimants straightaway…
I don’t think you can spin 1.971 million in a positive way.
It is not a green shoots moment
82 - Why would the Government want to massage unemployment figures below 2 million? They’re going to rise well above 2 million and well before the election. In a sense, I would have thought the Government would prefer to cross that milestone sooner rather than later, to get the inevitable blanket coverage out of the way.
72 Yes and Gordo wont be able to accuse DC of talking down the economy as his own people have been doing it!
86 - Plus anecdotal evidence I know but several people I know have experienced delays in the processing of their claim.
87 Because thats what Labour does, they cant help themselves.
77 The FSA is a classic case of the New Labour ‘tick the box’ culture. They seem to think that process is everything. The result? Massive unnecessary costs spread throughout the industry - hitting the small guys most, of course - and the big picture being missed.
It’s not just the FSA; there is a much wider question of how quangos and regulators should operate. What is quite clear is that the Blair/Brown government have got this seriously and systematically wrong (although to be fair it started before 1997). We see exactly the same types of failures, with the same underlying causes, in many different areas: Health and Safety, Social Services, Ofcom, the NHS, policing, and many more.
Time for a fundamental rethink, involving reducing the number of quangos/regulators, reforming the way they work, and limiting the scope of their operations to where they are really needed.
More from the unemployment figures.
To end of December redundancies were 259,000 in the last three months. This more than double the rate of 12 months ago.
Good job Gordon ended boom and bust - the figures might have been even worse if he hadn’t.
86
Many of the Woolies people being women and possibly second earners, and as the retail trade is in contraction, probably won’t even bother registering, as will most of married females being made redundant from the retail trade: not much point is there?
82. You’re a cynic.
Seriously - the difference between 1.97m and 2m is 30,000. Until recently, for the unemployment figures to even change by that much was an unusual month. Although the figures are three-monthly, comparing the Sep-Nov with Oct-Dec implies a rise of about 50,000 and as the three-monthly figure is about 150,000 that feels about right. It’s also backed up by many of the retail losses coming in January and the claimant count total (for which the January figures are available) being up by over 70,000. I’d have expected an acceleration of the increase as these losses hit the stats. I know the two series aren’t completely comparable but there’s still a strong correlation.
75. Yes, I meant imports. I do understand the J-curve principle but something has to explain the figures and it doesn’t seem unreasonable that the volume of imports dropped off earlier last year - even before the depreciation - meaning that the expected initial worsening didn’t happen, or didn’t happen as much.
90
Unlike the Tories of course!
How the sums have changed
In September 1975, the Labour government was attacked after unemployment reached a million for the first time.
Using the current system of accounting, revised many times by Conservative governments since 1979, that figure would have been just 884,100.
The changes implemented include:
October 1979
Downward adjustment to seasonal total
July 1981
Unemployed men over 60 on supplementary benefit for a year or more given option of long-term rate instead of signing on.
July 1982
Unemployment benefit taxed. Single parents encouraged to switch to supplementary benefit which was not taxed.
October 1982
Benefit claimants counted by computer rather than those registered for work at Jobcentres.
October 1982
Those seeking part-time jobs eliminated from count.
April 1983
Men aged 60 and over not entitled to benefit no longer made to register to receive National Insurance credits.
June 1983
School-leavers barred from claiming benefit until September in the year they leave.
July 1985
Payment of unemployment benefit in arrears.
June 1986
New method of calculating unemployment rate using larger denominator.
June to October 1986
Restart and availability for work tests tightened.
September 1988
Benefit denied to all 16 and 17-year-olds.
October 1988
Social Security Act changes conditions for short term benefits and puts some people over 55 on pensions instead of benefits.
September 1989
Claimants made to prove they are actively seeking work. Low wages no longer acceptable as reason for refusing a job.
September 1990
Unemployment benefit and income support ended for students.
April 1996
Unemployment benefit cut from 12 months to six months.
October 1996
Jobseeker’s Allowance replaces income support and unemployment benefit. Cuts contributory benefit for 18 to 24-year-olds by 20%.
re 87 the unemployment figures have a sampling error of +/- 72,000.
I notice the number of people employed in the public sector went up by 14,000 to 5.76m.
95 - Would you care to outline the many statistcal changes since 1997?
It’s bash a banker week but again it’s the same old story: Brown assumes we can all be fooled. Who was in charge of regulation for a decade and who ignored repeated warnings about the credit boom?
This hubris and po-faced cheek has to come back to haunt Labour.
Two distinctions need to be drawn instead of bashing “bankers”:
- between on the one hand the CEOs and those working on mortgage securitisation, and on the other hand the 95% of bank staff who have nothing to do with it (juniors, traders in other things, admin staff)
- between banks that have taken bail-outs and those that haven’t.
The masses of clerical bank staff, ordinary voters across the country, will see their modest bonuses cut this year while Brown uses “bankers” to tar them all with the same brush.
Tory gains everywhere.
97
I’m not saying the present government hasn’t, ‘massaged’ the figures, just remember where they got the idea from.
Between ‘79 and ‘97 I think there were 29 revisions, all but one showed a reduction.
Is Gordo going to do a mea culpa?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3344916/sorry-all-round.thtml
95. And every single change absolutely justified.
Take: “September 1989
Claimants made to prove they are actively seeking work. Low wages no longer acceptable as reason for refusing a job. ”
Let me see, I was supposed to pay my tax under threat of the law in order that some other layabout could take his dole without “actively seeking work” or declining work ‘cos it didn’t suit?
From Guido
Even more important is the increasing light shed on Gordon Brown’s underhand and disastrous role in the banking scandal.
Evidence is growing that Brown set out to destroy or neutralise the risk departments of HBOS and Northern Rock, the UK’s two biggest mortgage lenders.
At HBOS, Brown croney James Crosby sacked the head of the risk dept who was warning about HBOS’s unsustainable and reckless lending, while at Northern Rock, another Brown croney, Derek Wanless, was in charge of the risk dept and was giving the nod to mortgage lending on a massive, reckless scale.
By doing this Brown was able to carry on inflating the vast house price bubble and keep the illusory feel-good factor going for longer.
The awful consequences are now with us and will lead to bankruptcy and austerity for this country.
The FSA’s problem to me is they seem too focused on the small stuff such as “know thy customer” for people opening a bank account with a few thousand pounds, and are unable to devote the attention required to the regulation of the big stuff such as “Is this bank lending too much”?
The FSA seems to be too big and could do with cutting itself by at least 50%.
101
October 1982
Benefit claimants counted by computer rather than those registered for work at Jobcentres.
Hmmm wonder who got to press the buttons.
‘Now Miss Smith this is the figure the government wants to come out of that thing, keep fiddling away until you get it right’
104 Perhaps it was cheaper than using quill pens.
100 Gordon has so much to say sorry for, it would take up the 30 minutes of PMQ’s just to get started…
I still think that in order for his lips to form the word “sorry”, Brown would have to undergo gene replacement therapy. It isn’t in his DNA.
104. And I suppose Premium Bonds are fixed as well.
104 Quite so , it wont be direct, it’ll be a mealy mouthed form of words that pleases noone, itll be so typically Gordo.. unless the prince of Darkness forces him to. I wonder what the odds are on Gordon Brown actually saying “sorry we screwed up”
107
They bloody well must be, I never get to win! I blame it on the freemasons.
108 MTF - How about ‘Britain leads the world in screwing up’?
102. Cameron should pledge to launch an immediate public inquiry into all of this on day one of his government - Everyone from Brown down should be made to give evidence.
109. I’ve had prizes frequently over the years; more now that I have the maximum holding. Does that make me a Freemason?
83/86 For the first six months you get non-means-tested Jobseekers Allowance (this is the equivalent of the old Unemployment Benefit which was meant to be an insurance payout paid from NI rather than a social security benefit, ie charity). After 6 months it is means-tested.
So even people with big packages can still sign on and claim (and get paid). I assume people with partners earning can do so also.
It is of courswe possible people won’t bother because it is taxable, and might wait until the new tax year.
Even if your benefit is stopped after 6 months because you have too much money, it can still be worth signing on as you get your stamp paid.
112 no it means you must have written the computer program!
112. That will smack of a witchhunt - the public’s revenge will come at the general election, if they so wish it. What the Conservatives need is a plan before taking office that they can put into effect on day 1. There’s no point wasting time with enquiries or subcontracting policy to outsiders.
113 IIRC you can’t get a bean until any money paid in lieu of notice has run out, ie the number of weeks notice paid.
110 It’ll be “there was a global screw-up, and I have to apologise for not stepping in early enough and saving the world from the error of its ways”
114
Or both!
116 You are quite right, I forgot that, sorry. Although I’m not sure of you can still sign on: the claim may not be delayed, even if the date from which you can be paid is.
Of course some poor people may have been working their notice: if the company isn’t going bust, you might as well get your money’s worth out of people before they go.
103
TC
No. You are incorrect. The job of the FSA is to protect the big institutions who can do no wrong. In order to allow the real drug lords to continue without hindrance, money laundering rules were introduced to make sure it looked as if the FSA were doing a good job.
But as the law required every transaction to be reported, illegal transactions were swamped by millions of perfectly legal (and trivial ) ones. In this way the FSA can justify “missing” transactions by real drug smugglers.
In any sane society drug taking would be legalised and the state would tax it. Since we do not, the only reason can be to keep the drug lords in business to make tax free billions.
And of course a few small fry are caught. But no seriosu celebrity is ever jailed for drug taking.
No - I am not a conspiracy theorist like other nutters. But the above is what actually happens..
Keep cannabis classified: keep drug dealers in business!
You could not make it up.
Insider dealing is regulated on the smae basis.
As is banking.
44 Many thanks Henry. I’ve decided to go for the Korolev bet - trust I’ve picked the right one!
I hope one or two PBers joined me in laying Zola at 6.4/1 on Monday evening against him getting the Chelsea manager’s job - this was just wishful thinking in the immediate aftermath of Scholari’s sacking and was just never going to happen, it was just too big a risk for someone so inexperienced. Last time I looked he’d drifted out to around 50/1.
47. Watched Prescott on Breakfast time - he seems to have to conveniently forgotton that he and Gordan were in power over the last 11 years.
The issue of bonuses was predictable and the government failed when injecting capital into the banks to gain agreement that a condition was that the banks directors and executives forgoe bonus renumeration.
This would have avoided the contractual issues relating to staff employment contracts.
Watching Prescott and listening to articles about Brown being angry about bonuses, Is like listening to alcopop manufacturers complaing about teenage drunkness. It has no credibility !
87
They want the steady dribble of news rather than a series of hammer blows, one after another within a short period.
‘You can boil a frog by raising the temperature gradually, if you drop it into boiling water, it will jump out’.
Re. 111. And while he’s at it, he should also launch an immediate, public inquiry on day one of his Premiership, into the the Iraq war. Its outrageous that nearly 6 years after this pointless war we’ve still not had a public inquiry into it. All of the soldiers that have died and their families, deserve nothing less - It should cover all aspects, from how Blair got us into the war - Right through to why the soldiers were so badly equiped.
Boris may have to appear befor the committee again:-
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23638987-details/Mayor+%27changed+his+story+four+times+over+Damian+Green%27s+arrest%27/article.do
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1141042/I-tricked-David-Cameron-track-Damian-Green-says-police-chief.html
125. Another view from the Daily Mail following Bob Quick’s evidence yesterday.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/bank-bosses-urged-to-stick-apologies-up-their-arse-200902111571/
Re the suggestion that Brown might do a mea culpa. there is a briiliant comment on the speccie coffee house blog
Andrew
February 11th, 2009 9:36am
“Mr Speaker, this apology - which, as everyone now recognises, began in America….”
An apology from Brown of any sort would be a lose/lose option.
Do it, and he would do it badly and be compared to the nodding dog apologies of the merchant bankers yesterday.
Do it satisfactorily - against the odds - and he will be asked why it took so long and what he is going to do about admitting he got us all in the ordure. But, will be the only reply, the Tories would do nothing.
And the ‘the idiot now admits he is an idiot’ meme would run around the country faster than a winter cold.
Just caught up with the extraordinary George Monbiot hatchet job on Hazel Blears, in yesterday’s Guardian.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/10/hazel-blears-george-monbiot
Unnervingly, he sounds ever-so-slightly like me having a crack at Nick Palmer of this parish. Here he is lecturing the perky Ms Blears:
“Courage in politics is measured by the consistent application of principles. The website TheyWorkForYou.com records votes on key issues since 2001.
“You have voted in favour of detaining terror suspects without charge for 42 days, in favour of identity cards and in favour of a long series of bills curtailing the freedom to protest… In 2003 you voted against a fully elected House of Lords and in favour of a chamber of appointed peers. In 2007, you voted FOR a fully elected House of Lords…
“You have served… in a government which has… launched an illegal war in which perhaps a million people have died. Either your principles… happen to have pre-empted every contradictory decision this government has taken, or you don’t possess any.
“Fixes like this might give you some clues about why more people are not taking part in politics. I believe there is a vast public appetite for re-engagement, but your government, aware of the electoral consequences, has shut us out.
“It has reneged on its promise to hold a referendum on electoral reform. It has blocked a referendum on the European treaty, ditched the regional assemblies, used Scottish MPs to swing English votes, sustained an unelected House of Lords, eliminated almost all the differences between itself and the opposition. You create an impenetrable political monoculture, then moan that people don’t engage in politics.”
Cracking stuff George, I couldn’t have put it better myself. In fact, YOU put it better. Nice one. I’m just surprised that this acerbic deconstruction of Neu Labour has come from one of their own. George Monbiot of all people!?
The media worm has certainly turned. If Guardian lefties hate the government this much, then I see no way back for the Tractor Party.
129. Quite. If he admits he has been wrong for 12 years he can’t then claim to be right going forwards.
Also, the bankers who said sorry yesterday lost their jobs. If Brown says sorry does he quit at the same time?
128 Of course the Bankers lack of banking qualifications probably started in America as well.
83: Ken
1% of surveyors in the latest RICS survey say house prices are rising. 78% say they are falling. Nationwide january data is down 1.5% (IIRC) Halifax quarterly figures also well down which they themselves say are more reliable.
The Halifax data is surely a blip, made more likely by the historically low number of transactions (in itself a strong indicator of falling prices). You are a very knowledgeable poster, you must know that the money to support house prices is simply not borrowable (if that’s a word!) and that they must fall more.
We MAY be in classic bull-trap territory. Interested in your comment about a “sweet-spot” - I see what you mean but the thousands being chucked on the dole would likely take issue with that choice of phrase i suspect.
pb.com is 4minutes in the future this morning.
Anecdotal evidence alert: my brother is a surveyor in Surrey and after dire times at the end of the last year, work has rapidly increased over the last month.
134 Jonathan - Very handy for a betting site.
133. If there was a sweet spot it was surely last November.
136.
132 Suggestion for Cameron at PMQ’s:
“Yesterday we saw a mass apology from bankers for their part in Britain’s financial crisis. Each of those who apologised has resigned. Is it having to resign in disgrace that keeps the Prime Minister from apologising to the people of Britain for his even larger role in Britain’s financial crisis?”
On topic, the connection to Brown in this story is a bit thin, but the fact that such an insubstantial story is getting such big headlines is bad news for Gordon. If people throughout the financial sector were endemically ignoring risks and pushing potential problems under the carpet, there must be plenty more people in the same position as Crosby who are implicated in the disaster and have had some kind of advisory role with the government. So there will be plenty more stories like this, assuming the press want to run them. Which they apparently do.
@130:
Yes, Sean. Moonbat vs Chipmunk is one of the most splendidly histrionic bitchiness-laden tirades I have enjoyed for quite some time.
Maybe he should lay off the AGW and lay into twats more often.
137. Let me explain. Interest rates have been cut to 1% in preparation for the eventual fall in prices caused by weak demand and negative economic activity. But, for most businesses and individuals, we are still in positive price rise and weak sales territory. So as far as indebted individuals and firms are concerned, their sales (earnings) are down a bit, but their non-operating cost in the form of interest payments are down. In six months, their sales (earnings) will be down a lot more. The sweet spot started in late November and lasts for a little while yet. Unemployment rising is one of the things that takes us out of the “sweet spot” as aggregate earnings fall.
135. Repo valuations ?
142 So - any green shoots are just young triffids?
Now Bank of England refutes Nu-Labour budget forcast:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Recession-Bank-Of-England-Says-Inflation-Will-Fall-To-05-Percent-In-Two-Years/Article/200902215220812?lpos=Business_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15220812_Recession%3A_Bank_Of_England_Says_Inflation_Will_Fall_To_0.5_Percent_In_Two_Years
As I wrote this morning on an earlier post. Don’t trust ANY government statistics.
133. I think it’s a blip and I think house prices will fall more, but I do believe in analyzing and dissecting each new piece of information. I posted it because Gabble doesnt seem to be around and it is important not to ignore stats that dont fit one’s scenario.
141. Quite so.
I normally lapse into persistent vegetative syndrome when confronted with merely the first syllable of a George Monbiot article, but it turns out he can do Vicious Attack Journalism very well. And on a fellow Labourite, too!
Splendid. More please. I love watching the lefties turn on each other.
147. Is silver spoon boy a Labourite? I would have thought he was a Green.
Not much time to post today, but I’ve got to thank HenryG for his Acasuso tip
146. Absolutely. Black Swan and all that. Few people predicted the Late Noughties Nightmare, cause it came out of nowhere.
Equally, we may see a sudden and unexpectedly quick recovery - who knows? Unlikely Things Do Happen.
And, as I said the other day, it is also possible that there is just enough Thatcherite flexibility left in the British economy that we will rebound sooner than some expect. Fingers x’d.
145
Your refereed article says:
“n its quarterly forecast, the Bank said the rate of contraction could reach as high as 6% by the middle of the year, compared to mid-2008.”
5-7% is my forecast for 2008 . Glad to see the BOE is catching up.
148. Sure, but Monbiot is definitely more Guardianista than Spectatorite. Which is probably one reason why he writes in the Guardian rather than the Spectator.
This Monbiot Zinger (a phrase never used before, in the history of the English speaking people) will certainly hurt Labour, as it comes from someone meant to be on “their side”.
139. Trim the resignation bit. If you cut it down to just to the apology part then maybe. But Gordon would just say “it’s the bankers fault, hence why they just apologised.”
Blears replies in todays Guardian Letters (cant find on line):
“I would like to invite you to Salford, and allow some of my young party members and myself to show you round our city. Then you will see why I have been voting Labour in the Commons these past 12 years ” - Hazel Blears
Careful, avoid those empty shops and closed factories, Hazel!
146:
yes fair enough. In fact i’m surprised the VI press (Mail, Times…) didn’t splash “House price boom on again” across their front pages, and the likes of Anne Ashworth didn;t work herself up into a frenzy of overextrapolation.
Never long to wait for the next bit of data in this information age!
152 What’s the spread on when SeanT firsts loses his temper with Cameron’s administration (if such a thing ever comes to pass)?
30-60 minutes, sounds reasonable.
It will beat his current nauseating sycophancy to the Tories.
156. *bets the under*
@156:
You must be thinking of a different SeanT.
Nitpick (I’m going to keep on nitpicking this one till it bleeds): “problematical” does not mean “likely or apt to cause problems”, it means “doubtful” or “unreliable”.
Thus, “the OESI’s mental stability is problematical” does not mean that McSporran’s being mad is a problem; it means that McSporran might be mad.
150 SeanT, the reason why a quick return to vigorous economic growth looks unlikely is that as the economies unravel, it now appears that, for at least the past decade, No-one Knew What The F*ck They Were Doing.
The greatest hope has to be that, by a sheer fluke, the Govt. prints just the right amount of money. And the Bank of England has got interest rates policy bang on. And the US help package hits the right targets.
On past form, doesn’t look promising. But as you say, fingers x’d…
154 - The letter is here (below one from Emily Thornberry MP):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2009/feb/11/letters-guardian-islington
154 That’s quite a good response.
Never been able to make my mind up about our Hazel. Whilst she is clearly a loyalist of the first order, she has more fire in her belly that half the stuffed suits in the cabinet/shadow cabinet/LDs.
153. Cameron has used the ‘in denial’ line before. If he keeps on with it then Brown’s repeated failure to answer any question that casts doubt on his earlier judgements and decisions will simply add to that narrative.
Daily Politics should be good today, and not just because of PMQs likely to be more interesting than usual.
Guests include Hazel Blears and Eric Pickles, who Andrew Neil cheekily describes as the ‘the Little and Large of British politics’ on his blog.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/dailypolitics/andrewneil/
161 - I thought you voted Aye or Noe in the divisions in the Commons not Labour.
154. Oh dear. Poor Hazel.
I don’t want to, erm, labour the point, but this Monbiot article is crucial because it signifies - to me - that the intellectual left (i.e. people like Monbiot) is now close to giving up on New Labour: seeing them as helplessly compromised and sleazy, and too mired in selfishness, greed and ennui to enact the reforms the country needs.
If you look at the list of Labour failures Monbiot adduces, many of them would be remedied by Cameron, indeed many of them are in the Tory manifesto - no ID cards, no third runway, an EU referendum, sorting out the WLQ, an Iraq inquiry, Lords reform, etc etc.
Monbiot is, wittingly or unwittingly, saying “Vote Tory, they’ve got to be better than this bunch of lying unprincipled sleazebags”.
Fascinating. It’s like Enoch Powell saying vote Labour in the mid 1970s.
154 “I would like to invite you to Salford, and allow some of my young party members and myself to show you round our city. Then you will see why I have been voting Labour in the Commons these past 12 years ” - Hazel Blears
Sounds like a boast that Labour have descended into unashamed pork-barrel politics.
160. You might be right - however the total sum of bank lending is not going back to 06/07 levels any time soon - so recovery is all relative - we’re not going back to the debt fuelled boom that Gordon steered us into.
156. For me, I know a Cameron government will do things that annoy me. No government can ever please an individual 100% of the time. It will make mistakes and bad judgement calls and do things I don’t agree with just like any other administration. And when it does I’ll say so. One can only hope that it makes fewer mistakes and bad judgement calls and policy errors, than the current shower!
158 Martin, 166 is a good example of how far SeanT has fallen for Cameron. He could soon be adding Sycophant of the year to his trophy cabinet.
167 - I read it with Ralph McTell singing in the background: “Let me take you by the hand and lead you round the streets of Salford, I’ll show you something that’ll make you change your mind”.
Just a few minutes in and Hazel is looking distinctly uncomfortable.
166 - George’s dad would be proud of him!
170 - Not like you being such a sour-puss today. Perk up, old fruity.
Hazel busy defending James Crosby as he resigns…how hilarious.
170. Them grapes sound very green Jonathon - goodness knows what will be left of you after 12 yrs of Cameron rule - in the coldstone zone probably.
161. “Allow…myself” NO. It should be “Allow…me” FFS. Can’t she even write a proper sentence?
169 My sentiments exactly. If he goes a full fortnight wthout my having to rail “Cameron, you f**king muppet”, then that will be a good result.
Morning all,
From Sky: Sir James Crosby has resigned from the FSA.
Go Pickles!
160
Return to prior economic levels.
?
An analysis of US economic growth since 2003 by some US economics professor (no link) suggests that US growth would have been virtually nil to 0.5% tops if Mortgage Equity Withdrawal had not happened.
eg peoples taking equity out of their houses to buy things.
As house prices were rising, it did not matter if your mortgage rose. So about 2% pa of US economic growth will not happen again for the next 5-10 years as house prices fall.
The implications for world economic growth are : bleeding obvious. Flat at best.
179. Thats one Brown Crony been brought to book then.
170. lol, silly boy. Why, it seems like only yesterday I was calling Martin Coxall and some other Tories stupid twats for their views on Israel.
Hold on, it was in fact YESTERDAY. I also implied Runnymede was a pompous knob, not least cause he is, and I said I was glad Cameron had detoffed the party cause that was a serious problem.
This was all just…. yesterday. Meanwhile, last week I said “ALL politicians of ALL stripes were nasty greedy lying incompetent bastards, which is one reason people aren’t voting”.
To call that “nauseating sycophancy” seems to be stretching the definition of sycophancy so far it actually includes contemptuous abuse.
Sir James Crosby [FSA] has goneaccording to Reuters flash
174 I’m not the one with the sour puss, taking the p1ss out of seant is a mildly distracting (early) lunchtime sport. BTW After 12 years of Cameron we’ll all be banging rocks together outside our caves.
Meanwhile, for some truly remarkable news, more stimulating than current UK fodder, just watch this video.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7882762.stm
179. hahahahahaha
183. Well no doubt you’ll have some different ideas/pet theories again tomorrow.
Brown’s crony pushed before PMQs ?
The water is lapping at the PMs ankles now…
183 We all know that some of the local Tories are as you describe. You’ve just gone a bit easy of late on that nice man Mr Cameron.
All things are relative. For you, your recent treatment of our Dave is akin to settling down and having his babies.
184 - Wonder how big his pay off will be?
Wow, James Crosby just resigned from FSA.
Good. He might only have been there in the first place as a crony of Gordon Brown, and the FSA has failed, failed and failed again to get its’ priorities right while being largely unnaccountable and a law unto itself all too often.
Crosby presumably did very well personally while being the architect of HBOS downfall, so here’s the question today….what payoffs will he now be taking from the FSA (i.e us), or will there be ‘no reward for failure’?
191 Brown clearly will make a statement. Cameron will surely have to change his question.
Iain Martin this morning on Sir James Crosby and Gordo
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2009/02/11/james_crosby_was_gordon_browns_favourite_banker_not_fred_goodwin
Why resign if it was no fault of the regulatory regime which a Mr G Brown designed?
Oh….wait….
189 But you can rely on the fact that at some unknown future point, SeanT will turn and stick a fork in Gaylord Poncyboots’s fizzog.
On this new mantra of no reward for failure, I know that if a Cabinet Minister resigns in discrace that they get a payoff. Does that apply at an election too?
177
I’m sure we’ve been through Emily Thornberry’s abilities* before.
Or is this another MP who can’t cobble together a sentence in the local pidgin?
*or lack of them
coldstone will be doing cold turkey ere long!
195 By then it will be Sir Sean Thomas of Bangkok?
Following yesterday’s comments about gym guy, I’d be interested to hear SeanT’s comments on this story http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7882953.stm
189. You’re right, though - I reckon I will be disappointed by Cameron within about 15 minutes of his elevation to Number 10. I’m already SOOOOO over Obama.
That said, I will be genuinely surprised - and horrified - if the Tory government turns out to be half as ugly, inept and morally diseased as New Labour 1997-2010.
Your guys have set the bar very low. You achieved nothing in your twelve years but betraying the voters, killing people pointlessly, and wrecking the entire economy. Almost any government taking over from yours would be an improvement. Danni Minogue and the late Arthur Mullard could probably run a better administration than Labour 1997-2010.
So, yes, I fully expect to be immediately and bitterly disappointed by Cameron’s Tories. But it doesn’t matter, they just have to be Not Labour.
200 In that photo Mr Wilder looks like Boris Johnson and Norman Lamont’s love child.
199 As it would be a formal title, he should probably use the full formal name.
So, Sir Sean Thomas of Krung Thep Mahanakhon Amon Rattanakosin Mahinthara Yuthaya Mahadilok Phop Noppharat Ratchathani Burirom Udomratchaniwet Mahasathan Amon Piman Awatan Sathit Sakkathattiya Witsanukam Prasit.
199. If they have to ennoble me, I insist on being known as The Honourable Sean Thomas, Viscount Knox of Patpong 2.
201 So, yes, I fully expect to be immediately and bitterly disappointed by Cameron’s Tories. But it doesn’t matter, they just have to be Not Labour.
And there belies the biggest risk in British Politics for a long time. A blank cheque from SeanT and the troops like him.
204 The “honourable Sean Thomas” would be no stranger to irony.
91 Richard Nabavi
Terrific post, and spot on about the FSA and the wider New Labour tick-box bureaucracy that is failing us all across so many aspects of the economy.
I’m not sure what Cameron has meant when he’s made references in speeches to us needing to move to a more ‘post-bureaucratic age’, but as more and more of the New Labour record unravels on a daily basis, I can see an incoming Conservative government having widespread support and a very significant honeymoon period to make some very radical changes indeed.
OT:
Martin Salter is to stand down in Reading West for Labour. He got one of the biggest swings to Labour in 2001.
He does work his socks of for Labour and for Reading, and could well have held. But Labour are in a mess in Reading - there is no replacement. Alok Sharma, the Tory, will win.
Salter gave the impression of rebelling but it was a bit of an act. Even Iraq. He would also be bought off. But he rebelled over Heathrow.
164. Broxtowe Cat February 11th, 2009 at 11:34 am
Hazel Blears annoys me - I have been on the dole just short of 12 months: I am a white Collar type they refer to and nobody has done jack shit for me. Indeed I have applied for well over a thousand jobs in the time and i get a bit irrated by the bull shit blears et al go on about!
Sir James Crosby should be joined by Gordon Brown! Out Out Out!
209 A thousand jobs, are you serious?
Fingers crossed for a classic PMQ’s…
On Crosby - aren’t there far too many poacher turned gamekeepers working for the government? Surely once a banker, always a banker.
Eyes down for a full house!
200. Wilders is a grandstanding showboating sh1tstirring buffoon, who doesn’t deserve the appellation “demagogue”.
That said he is an elected member of an EU parliament, has done nothing illegal in this country, or any other as far as I know, and his film Fitna is actually quite powerful - if deliberately and disturbingly provocative.
On what grounds can he be barred? Cause some silly Muslims might get angry. So f*cking what. Since when is the right of ingress into the United Kingdom decided by a minority of excitable imams rather than the Her Majesty’s Home Office?
Grrr. Another sad day for British democracy. But then, every day under Labour is a sad day for British democracy. Labour are utterly incapable of defending free speech and liberty; I’m not even sure they understand the principles.
Please Labour. Just go.
‘Therefore, whilst I am totally confident that there is no substance to any of the allegations, I nonetheless feel that the right course of action for the FSA is for me to resign from the FSA Board which I do with immediate effect. ‘
ah, the old, i’ve done nothing wrong, therefore I’m resigning trick…
There’s the plant
210. Yes, I show all the correspondence to the job centre as well.
216 - Great quip from Cameron at the start there.
Brown dealt well enough with that first one.
212
Poacher turned gamekeeper will work provided that the Gamekeeper is given explicit rules and expected to get results.
The FSA is run NOT to get results. Period.
200-Shocking! Still welcome to the EU/ZNL gulag, so not entirely a surprise.
here comes do nothing
Speaker gives the PM a time-out to collect his thoughts before answering….
I think Cameron landed a killer blow there with regard to whether Crosby would still advise Brown. Drew Blood!
Speaker Martin a tool! Brown back to tractors!
Cameron on form today…
214 - Too right SeanT, let’s bring back the people who prohibited the broadcasting of the voices of democratically elected politicians, who banned political parties and who prevented people moving freely about in this country during the miners strike. Truly the Tories have proved themselves to be steadfast defenders of free speech and liberty when in power.
Cameron’s on form. I’m reckoning it at about 4-1 to him so far. Maybe 4-2.
Barry O for a double points score
225 Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. He hasn’t landed a punch yet.
The shadow shadow chancellor. Nice.
229. No knockout blows, but winning handily on points imho.
Gordon giving that “no, really, I’m quite enjoying being punched in the face” smile.
230 Again??? Your easily pleased…
Cameron’s changed strategy I think. Since Gordon’s stopped answered questions, he now just gets up and rants for a bit, then tacks one on at the end for the sake of it.
This is a much better PMQs than usual
230. Yeah really clever that.
Brown pathetic again, nothing to say.
“The great regulator Gordon Brown” = Stoney Tory faces.
attack of the clones….
237. Regulation that has failed. Nothing to be proud of there.
237. yes game changing stuff there from Brown - or not.
it’s only going to get worse and gradually your boys are going to retreat in to a huddle whilst pointing their fingers blaming everyone but themselves.
Clone has sideswipe at “do nothing” Tories again. Interesting. Nice new hairdo as well.
What’s great about pb.com is that a someone in exile abroad, unable to watch PMQs for himself, can still get a very balanced and fair appraisal of the proceedings - and the performance of the two leaders - from the surprisingly unpartisan comments on here.
Why does Clegg always try to throw an elbow? He looks like Jack Douglas from the carry on films.
I think Cameron did land a knock out Blow on Brown in the second or third question.
A Knock out blow against Brown means he retreats to tractor production statistics and becomes like a stephen Hawkins voice machine with the poise of a man who has shat himself. Brown displayed this today.
Clegg was crap today - Yellow Taxi time come the next erection!
His “do nothing quote” means that Clegg has obviously gone to the ‘Know Nothing’ on economics Mark Senoir for advice! 
I wonder if Mark Senoir is a secret Gordon Brown adviser given Brown’s selling of Gold in 1999 and Mark’s losing of a gold coin subsequently! 
Clegg shows he is in the pocket of Brown!
Having just watched Cameron at PMQs…dear oh dear.
With the pathetic Brownstuff in worse condition today than ever Cameron should have taken a serious note. And now Clegg is doing the same.
Sadly GB is in the hands of the worst bunch of politicians on all sides in my lifetime. The poll showing that most Tories and LibDems are voting against other parties rather than for their own is so easily explainable after today’s awful showing by their leaders at PMQs. As for Labour supporters voting positively for NuLabour, poor pathetic souls.
What a mess.
235. I agree- because Gordon’s decided to respond to Cameron’s “rants” (as you say 234) by trying to shift the debate onto policy, whihc Cameron then has rto respond to, at least in passing.
Camerons Q’s are getting longer and longer and longer. He gets a lot of effective prescripted lines in as a result, but I wonder if he loses some crispness too.
244 - How that got through the filter with that spelling mistake heaven above no?
242 Indeed. It was all thoroughly predictable. No change or serious knocks on either side. The final look of death on the Tory benches was quite fun though.
Meanwhile, Nick Clone was brilliant, a tour de force, he put in the the performance of a generation. The leader for our times…
Some backbench MPs are shockingly, shockingly rubbish.
247 - *knows!
Victory for Cameron. TKO or a big points win imho. Brown better than usual. Clegg a bit flat, but not bad. He does have the hardest job at PMQs of the three leaders.
Cameron not only throws like a girl, he can hoof a ball over an open goal too.
Take the serious note on unemployment once Crosby had resigned would’ve been a better strategy.
Twit.
226 As opposed to the defenders of liberty in HMG, who from the middle of this month will imprison you for such crimes as taking a photograph of a policeman, under new anti terrorism laws. Nice.
The Islamo-fascist groupie Paul Rowan LD has just risen to his feet……
tim - I fear he will have ample opportunities to return to the issue of rising unemployment.
Tim are you signing all your posts as ‘Twit’ today. Seems suitable and concise. Well done.
253 - Parliamentary leper?
Clegg wasted his first question again. Seeing as he only has two questions he should use them more frugally. He tries to set up his second question with his first but it doesn’t seem to work.
251 - I think you misunderstand the point of PMQ’s at this point in the political cycle.
Did Brown really use the “shadow shadow chancellor” line again? It was barely funny the first time. If he’s having to reheat it, that’s a bad sign.
But like I say, I didn’t watch it. And not watching it makes you realise how little it matters to most people - who are similarly oblivious.
Surely we cannot stop Wilders coming to the coountry unless similar measures are also taken towards islamic extremists coming to preach. I know there has been a change since 7/7 but you can’t have double standards.
No mention of MP’s housing allowances. The House collectively retreating into a silent darkness on this one.
Apologies if anyone has mentioned this already, but the time-stamp on the comments seems a couple of minutes fast.
Oh dear, Brown’s just gave a shocker of an answer
What is Brown thinking by trying to say that HBOS has been cleared of any wrongdoing (by KPMG). The public think HBOS has been reckless, just look at the press coverage today.
Not striking the right note at all.
The quality of some, some I repeat, of the backbenchers’ questions are better than those of Clegg and Cameron.
I’m thinking more of the Tory side than the NuLabor side.
Gordon happy to talk about carbon today. Unlike his financial advisors…
‘Stockton MP Dari Taylor asks a very long question about bio-fuels, which earns her a ticking off from the Speaker.’
Got to get the wounded through to the end….
259 I don’t watch PMQs very often. Sorry to go on, but it is shocking to see how rubbish the backbench MPs are. There are one or two exceptions that creep just beyond mediocrity, but the standard is generally abysmal. Boy is our system broken.
Paul Rowan’s message was ‘Vote Hamas,vote often’.
Well at least he wasn’t off message.An unhealthy symbiosis exists between Islamo-Fascism and Liberal-Democratism.
On some topics there is scarcely a Rizla paper between the two…except that the first are totally honest about their objectives.
Will this post get through ?
2-5 YES
4-6 NO
It comes to something when the PM is boasting about locking people up.
Brown seems to have moved on from do nothing to cuts, cuts and cuts. Not only is it extremely tedious but it is inevitable that he will have to cut spending if Labour win the next general election.
268. thats a bit harsh on Nick P
Sadly, no-one asked Gordon to which he took greatest exception - being called one-eyed, Scottish or an idiot.
Boring, boring, boring.
Four or five interesting questions from backbenchers.
Nothing from Cameron and Clegg.
Brown was Brown - ever awful.
Quelle charade.
272-He is involved in a game of Diplomacy and can’t access the forum right now.
Leave your name and number and he will get back to you Jimbo Jones.
Titian’s age - the great debate.
I offer Exhibit A - died aged 88:
http://www.metmuseum.org/toah/hd/tita/hd_tita.htm
252 - All governments in this country are authoritarian by instinct and here they can get away with a lot more than they can in many other democracies.
Hazel Blears: “What you see is what you get with Hazel Blears.”
I feel short-changed…
278 -
277. Only the elected ones, prior to mass enfranchisement, amongst having some pretty blood thirsty parliaments/governments/privy councils we have also had the most enlightened also. It seems that democracy is quite often the enemy of liberty…
However, our cousins across the water have shown how it is possible to adapt english common law, liberty and democracy yet preserve certain aspects of liberty (by removing them from the sticky paws of politicians with a four year attention span).
Hmm Obama fawning gets worse…
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/02/imitation-is-th.html
I thought Cameron started off excellently in the first three questions, but allowed himself to get bogged down in the last three. He should have carried on pressing Brown about Balls’s “worst recession for a century” gaffe rather than getting into a pointless debate about VAT again.
Never the less, clear win for Cameron just by virtue of Brown having to see one of his cronys resign half an hour before the start of PMQ’s.
Daily Politics just raised my point at 261 above!
272 Our dear Nick P is definitely one of the better ones, but even he could sharpen up his points occasionally.
Is the HoC,
(a) Where the battle of ideas is fought with passion by politicians at the height of their powers for the grater good of the country
(b) A grey, demotivating partisan dreer-fest populated on the whole by self-serving oddballs who couldn’t wouldn’t recognise a new idea even if it was presented to them in a brown envelope.
284 - (b): always has been, to be fair.
Dr.Nick Palmer MP.Labour.
Soi-disant ‘Friend of Israel’. If you added ‘fairweather’ that could be closer.
I would call him Dr.Nick,Friend of Dr.Nick through thick and thin…….long time admirer of SeanT and Rod Crosby because he dearly aspires to be ‘one of the chaps’.
I am calling you out as a fraud, Dr.Nick.
Do you want to say ’sorry’ ? It’s very fashionable.
Interesting line from Nick Clegg “say anything, do nothing prime minister”, combined with LibDem David Heath on pledges which have not been delivered.
If this is part of a strategy by the LibDems to grab Labour voters (and prevent drift from the LibDems to Labour), it could work quite well. It blames the government for failure, without attacking those who have voted Labour in the past.
It will be interesting to watch whether they develop and amplify this theme in the next few weeks.
287 Lib Dems need to be careful when they accuse others of saying things but never delivering. That has been the de facto Liberal way since Lloyd George.
On topic. Was just listening to R4 You and yours- where they were talking about harassment by banks. I wasnt listening very carefully, but I thought I heard that HBOS was named in a majority of complaints.
The harassing of defaulting customers is a usual tactic taken by a bank that has managed to get itself into deep do-do. It’s also a sign that the bank management has lost its way really badly. I wonder if Lloyds managers have yet started to impose order on HBOS?
My guess is that we will find that management and control systems at HBOS is in really bad shape. Some of that mud will stick to Crosby.
Odd that Crosby has gone so quickly over the whistleblower allegation made only last night. Didn’t really see that coming. There must be a lot more to this than meets the eye.
Be very interesting to know what pay-off he’s getting. He’s a banker, he won’t have gone without one….
I remember back to the dark days of 1995-7 when being an increasingly reluctant supporter of the incumbent government, I felt things could never get as bad as that for a governing party. But Major’s troubles look like a walk in the park compared to the sh!t GB is having to eat - and all self-inflicted.
Electoral wipeout surely looms for Labour. At least the Tory Government was remotely competent and left a golden economic legacy. It just happened to be a bit sleazy and divided over Europe. Pretty small beer in comparison to what Blair-Brown have given us.
Wikipedia Titian article has been busy changing dates over the last few minutes
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Titian&action=history
290 Excellent post, Bob.
276 The wikipedia editor has been busy - birthdate changed to Met Museum one and text changed.
Gordn (who writes all his own speeches so we are told) must use Wikipedia as the bases of his “facts” - explains a lot.
On the subject of quotes by painters, perhaps Gordon will have time to mull over the words of Katsushika Hokusai:
“If Heaven had only granted me five more years, I could have become a real painter.”
290. Interesting indeed. Nick Robinson suggested Crosby was pushed before he could jump, so what price his silence. There is speculation he may have a juicy diary worth publishing…
Also from Ben Brogan
the PM was asked about the man appointed by the Treasury to run UKFI, the new bit that holds our (yours and mine) shareholdings in various banks. There’s been a fuss over Glen Moreno and his links with tax avoiders in Lichtenstein. No one’s quite sure why the Treasury didn’t spot the problem. Mr Brown, pausing briefly to get breifing from Alistair Darling on the bench beside him, replied: “He is acting chairman. He’s not been appointed.” Cue lots of oooo-ing. And another banker gets thrown off the sled to keep the wolves at bay.
Could the bankers get their revenge on Gordo?
288 Jonathan - Yes, I agree it’s a little dangerous, but since they haven’t been in government they can hardly be blamed for not delivering. However, if they are trying to place themselves as replacements for Labour - at least for some voters - then a good start is ‘we want the same kinds of thing that you thought you were voting for when you voted Labour’.
It is of course tricky to say that and keep/attract Tory-leaning voters. But the LibDems always have that problem.
284. Bit of both, sometimes?
Burke, Disraesli, Mill were all MPs. There’s some good ones in there at the moment as well.
Over a brief snack of a lunch and before popping out to the high street do my bit to prop up the British economy I was musing on the quality of the front benches today.
Where are the John Smiths, the Iain Mcleods, both who died sadly young, even the Robin Cooks and dare I say, the Margaret Thatchers, the Tony Benns and the Harold Macmillans, the Jo Grimonds? All were intellectually superior to the gadabouts in the House today. There are finer, more thoughtful, politicans in the Lords, but few of them sit on the front benches.
Talk about lions being lead by donkeys.
296 - It would invite comparison of local election leaflets in different areas.
Re. 200 and Mijnheer Wilders, I liked this bit by the Home Office re. their supposed ‘rules’ in this ares -
“It will stop those who want to spread extremism, hatred, and violent messages in our communities from coming to our country.”
When will that start to apply to the extremists who spread hate in Britains’ mosques and over the internet every day?
298 Would Cameron have made it into a Thatcher cabinet? I think yes, but he’d have been a wet Transport secretary and little more. He would not have lasted long. As for the rest of them no way would they have got a look in apart from Hague and then for novelty value.
Would Brown have made it into a Wilson cabinet? Again, yes IMO, but I doubt he would have made it to no11 or no10 against the likes of Callaghan, Jenkins, Owen and the rest.
Blair would probably have risen to the top in any cabinet IMO.
300-runnymede.This is one of those questions to which I have either no answers or two answers.
You do well to raise it.
204. Sean, as Jack W would no doubt have pointed out, you’d be doing yourself out of the full magnificence of such an honour. You’d be The Right Honourable Sean Thomas, Viscount Knox of Patpong 2. These things matter to those people to whom they matter - though I thought that novellists and memoirist were above such petty considerations?
290 - The Tory government was forced to pursue the policies it did over its final years because the ones it had tried previous to that were disastrous for this country.
Many of us remember the years long waitng lists for hospital treatment, the falling down schools, the general sleaze, the mass unemployment, the abandonment of non-Tory voting parts of the UK, the disaster of the poll tax, the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty, 15% interest rates and so on. I am struggling to find anything “remotely competent” about any of that. It’s those memories, I would suggest, that keep the Labour vote from total collapse, because - as you say - they have done very little to earn people’s support over the last 11 and a half years.
I was a Labour voter, but have decided I can no longer support this government - it has been a huge disappointment. But the idea of having the Tories back in power after all the damage they did last time around is certanly a frightening one.
301. Why do you say that about Blair? Very good opposition spokesman, but he was clearly all at sea when it came to running anything or delivery.
304-Southam Observer.I am happy with a Tory win and happy with a Labour win.
Make up your mind and vote one or the other.
306 - The Tories revolt me, but this Labour government desrves no-one’s vote.
My vote in my constituency will make no difference, the Tories will win with a 20,000 plus majority - that is already a foregone conclusion. I have the luxury of being able to vote for one of the minor parties or of spoiling my ballot paper by writing “none of the above”. I have yet to decide what to do.
I must be the only voter in the kingdom who would happily vote either Tory or Labour but would cut off his little finger before voting Lib Dem or for one of the other minor Parties.
Pace the NATS.
304 Southam Observer. I may be confusing you with another poster but I think we once talked about GE prospects in Southampton and the South Coast in general? I’d be very interested in your take on both Itchen and Test in 2010.
309 - You are confusing someone else with me. I am based in Warwickshire.
But the Tories will clean up across the south of England and in the midlands at the next election. It will be 1983 and 1987 all over again.
310 Thanks. Must have been the name that made me think Southampton!
I now think Cons will probably take both Southampton seats. Interesting to hear a midlands persepective. All the Northamptons blue again?
308. Why?
121. You’ve know what’s going to happen now you’ve said that Peter
304 Damage? Well, with the current bunch of idiots in HMG we’ve got -
The NHS system hosing away billions on useless IT systems
Sleaze by the bucket load.
Massively overpriced and poorly built PFI schools.
Greater unemployment than ever before, and rising.
etc
Nice to see you raise the spectre of 15% interest rates - a bit of an old chestnut there. And why was poll tax a disaster? Just for once, everyone had to make an equal contribution to supporting society and they didn’t like it.
Face it. Things are far,far worse now.
314: Anecdotal evidence alert!: My partner (a teacher) was working in a PFI school up until last summer. There were rarely any paper hand towels in the loos because the PFI contractor saved money by not providing them.
313 Henry - I didn’t do your other tennis bet, on the basis that if it looks too much of a good thing, etc., etc. But if you’re proved right, I shall bow before you!
304
The 1970’s Labour Government drove us into the ground and the Tories had to rescue the economy. That terrible experience of Labour obviously did not stop you voting for them again in 1997. Methinks your memory is selective, and it’s not good for you!!
URW at 286: Er, what brought that on? If you can’t distinguish between my position and Rod Crosby’s or even SeanT’s, may I suggest that your perspective is a little distant?
It is possible to sympathise with Israelis without agreeing with every action taken by every Israeli government. In the same way, we occasionally see people here hint at criticism of the British Government or suggest that Gordon Brown might not be infallible. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’re all anti-British.
317- I was in the US in 1997 so had no vote.
As far as I can see it is the circle of life. In 1964 Labour inherited a diving economy from the Tories, they handed back one in apoor state in 1970, over thenext four years things got worse - with power cuts, the three day week and so on - and hardly improved from 74 to 79. Up until around 1984 we were stillin the shite, then we were OK for a few years, before Lawson and Lamont buggere dit all up and Clarke was left with no alternative than to manage the public purse in a broadly neutral, non-partisan manner until 1997. Labour then had the mandate and the opportunity to make once in a political lifetime changes to the UK but failed almost totally, which leaves us where we are today and with no signs that anything much will change when the Tories take over in 2010.
I hae the phrase they are all as bad as each other, but when you look at the last 50 years or so, it does spring very readily to mind.
#308:URW; You are not alone! I totally agree, and I bet there are many more like us. When I vote I don’t give a stuff who my MP is (they are all much of a muchness) - I am voting for the party I want to form the next Government. As such, any vote other than for the Tories or Labour is really just electoral masturbat1on: It might make you feel better, but it’s damn all use to anyone else.
318 - Indeed. In this country, it is common to call the government anti-British. But woebetide anyone labelling the Israeli government anti-Israel.
319. “In 1964 Labour inherited a diving economy from the Tories,”
You’re obviously too young to remember that what Harold Wilson called the “13 wasted years” was, in fact, the period when successive Conservative governments lifted this country out of a progressive creep towards East European-style Sovietisation.
1964 was pretty good. Not the best it could have been but a darn sight better than what went before under Labour and what came after under them again.
322 - To be fair, Labour inherited an economy in 1945 shattered by war. My understanding is that prior to 1964 the Tories manufactured a temporary boom designed only for electoral purposes and one that did nsignificant damage to our economy, which was already underperforming in comparison to many other parts of Europe. And I am certainly old enough to remeber 70 to 74, the power cuts and the three day week. However bad things are now, I would be surprised if they got that bad.
OT
Gold and silver
Gold up to $942- a breakout above the descending resistance through prior highs.
Silver up to $13.6 - 50% above Nov lows.
Small gold mining stocks rallying hard.
(The rest of the world economy may collapse and probably will : in the meantime the flight to a store of safety continues).
In 6 months’ time my view is today will look dirt cheap…
323
Southern Observer
“However bad things are now, I would be surprised if they got that bad.”
Those were indeed grim times. I recall working 18 hour days when we had power and sitting at home reading by candlelight when we did not.
Fortunately the left wing rentamob who were determined to destroy industrial Britain were themselves destroyed- as much by their own crass stupidity as by any political action. See A Scargill who single handedly destroyed the NUM.
I expect a different scenario: civll unrest when benefits HAVE to be cut.
The incompetent Darling is going to have a MAJOR problem with his April Budget - expect sterling to tank.
323 At the risk of not being read now there’s a new thread……
1) All of Europe’s post ‘45 governments inherited economies shattered by war. Not all of them and certainly not the successful ones, most notably West Germany, opted for the centralised, nationalised, let’s all become little Soviet states solution adopted by Labour and accelerated in 1950 and even further promised again in 1951 at a yet faster pace. So, no let’s not be fair. Labour screwed the chances of revival.
They get no credit or allowance.
2) Your parents’ memory is both selective and wrong. There was no short-term, temporary boom, prior to 1964. Rather the culmination of a steady 13-year long (rather a long period for a pre-election boom, don’t you think?)improvement in our economic circumstances.
The trade deficit, of which Labour made much election capital, was revised away as the data came in and was clarified, after October 1964. The same, was true, as it happens, for 1970 figures which did much damage to Labour in the 1970 campaign.
318.Nick Palmer MP.
I called you a fraud because you promised to help me trace the ancestry and specifically her maternal grandfather and then went totally AWOL.
You could have ignored my request at the outset or responded to at least one of the five requests I have made since.
Lorna Fitzsimmons was a REAL Friend of Israel.You strike me as being a friend of the greatest number.
You published an article that was a dagger in the heart of Israel whilst being perfectly alibied at the time.
Interesting that you responded to my previous hostile post but not to the five previous.
327: URW - I did respond! You must have missed it, just as I’ve evidently missed posts by you. Neither of us are full time here. What I said was that unfortunately I’ve not been able to get a contact address or phone number for Lorna. When Members leave the Commons, they become un-persons as far as the officials go - they don’t provide forwarding addresses - and I’ve not been able to find anyone who knows. I’m sorry not to be able to help.
seanT: Monbiot has been anti-Labour for a very long time. Here’s his article urging people to vote against us in 2005:
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2005/04/19/signal-your-opposition/
and here’s his article urging people to vote for a change of government in 2001:
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2001/06/05/bleeding-us-dry/
So move along, sir, nothing new here.
326 - If Labour screwed the chances of revival how was it possible for the revival that you talk about under the Tories to have occured. What aspects of Labour policy from 1945 onwards did the Tories reverse when they took power? Most industries remained nationalised, did they not?
I did not mention my parents.
Well if anyone wants to edit the Titian entry it currently states that the spat happened at PMQs on “Wednesday 11 February 2008“.
Just goes to show you can’t believe anything your erad in Wikipedia!