Labour drop into the 20s with Populus
February 9th, 2009
CONSERVATIVES 42% (-1)
LABOUR 28% (-5)
LIB DEMS 18% (+3)
..and the LDs get a 3 point boost
The Populus survey for tomorrow’s Times will be published officially in a few minutes but I’ve just been given the tip off about the numbers from a normally reliable source. [The figures have now been confirmed - see the Times story here]
So Populus becomes the third pollster to be showing Labour back in the 20s - further evidence that the Brown bounce has almost totally collapsed. The 28% equals the share the party got in July.
Clearly the number that everybody has been waiting for is the Lib Dem share - following yesterday’s ICM survey that had the party on 22% - only a fraction short of what they got at the general election.
Each polling firm uses a different approach and the Populus methodology is not as friendly to Clegg’s party as ICM. The critical factor here is the direction.
So the pattern of the ICM poll is repeated here. Labour and the Tories dropping back with a boost for Clegg’s party. Clearly the 18% share is nothing like the ICM 22% but the direction is the same.
In the days leading up to the poll Clegg got quite a lot of media coverage and that is usually a big driver of the third party’s ratings. Add onto that the BJ4BW fiasco and the Lib Dems pick up part of the Labour decline.
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*looks around for Witan, doesn’t see him*
*quietly celebrates*
Ouch! What was that I said about the polls going into a holding pattern? Oh dear!!
It is quite amazing that the Libdems seem to be getting the benefit, hmmm Vince Cable perhaps?
Baxter with usual caveats;
CON 368
LAB 211
LD 40
Tory majority of 86.
Yes Con gain everything
Lab = League 2!!
where did the other 3% go to?
Another good result for the LibDems. I think in the coming weeks, the main point of interest is not going to be the gap between Conservative and Labour, it is going to be the ever closing gap between Labour and the LibDems.
8. The BNP or nationalists I would suspect, worrying times for Labour and Brown with the drop below thirty percent.
5. Not amazing - Vince Cabble has done a very good job. Overall, I would say that the Lib Dem performance recently has been average to good.
5. more like despondent voters like Tyson and Patrick our West Ham fan who have voted Labour happily before but who aren’t convinced by Labour under Brown. They won’t vote Tory so go for the nearest alternative.
Can’t see a third Brown Bounce coming this side of the election!
42 28 18 versus my guess of 44 27 21
LibDems disappoint again! But got Labour well sub-30.
Others +3%? Who are they going to? BNP bounce on BJ4BW??
I claim Bragging rights until the next poll. I was Oh so close
220 I hear Popluus will be out 7.30 ish , it usually is in the 7.30 -8.30 time frame, my guess is 42 28 17 If I am right, I will claim bragging rights till the next poll, If I am wrong it was definitely multiple typos.
by Maggie Thatcher Fan February 9th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
9
With perhaps the voters then switching from the Tories to the Libdems. It does seem odd that the Tories don’t seem to be improving their situation, when everything including the weather is so dire.
8. BJ4BW -> nationalists i’d guess.
Politics seems to have been lost to the snow in the last week. You can look at it two ways if this poll that Mike’s source has leaked is correct. It either means that in a non political environment such as the last week the true values of the likely votes are crystalising. Alternatively the types of people at home and lack of major political stories enable folk to shift away from the government in massive numbers due to government losing the incumbancy factor - by this I mean they no longer hold the headlines or make the Weather!!! No pun intended.
11 “Vince Cabble has done a very good job”
Typo - I think you meant Vince Cabbie!!!
18 Taxi!
re 8 the BNP
I am sure Nick Clegg will still be bothered by his Party’s shortage of ‘active positive’ support among the C2s. And clearly this problem has zero correlation with the News of the World’s other populus poll which shows that there are NO C2 ‘pure’ (sic) Le$bians at all in the UK!
I said 42 30 18. So I was 2/3 right!
8 “Others” - I am assuming that these figures are AFTER the allocation of Don’t Know / Won’t Says proportionatelyto parties?
There is no doubt, irrespective of Vince Cable’s continuing coverage - not yet affected by the reinstatement of Ken Clarke - that Clegg and Lib Dems generally have been having a very good run of media coverage. And I am sure people normally sympathetic are picking up on that.
22 see 14
I still miss the smiling Daves and the frowning Gordons. Whatever happened to them?
5. Agreed. A definite movement… Labour collapsing… but the LDs gaining. I thought the ICM poll was somewhat roguish but this shows another little boost-ette for Clegg. Unexpected!
Nonetheless any result like this would leave Labour decimated, the LDs reduced, and the Tories with a landslide or near landslide majority.
What the F can Brown do now? He is trudging through the blizzard. He is Scott of the political Antarctic. The pemmican has run out and John Prescott ate the huskies. Tony “Amundsen” Blair won all the glory anyway. There is nothing left but retreat, ships biscuits, frostbite, and a slow lingering death.
Perhaps its time Captain Brown stepped outside the big tent; who knows, he could be gone a long time.
18.
Simon Hughes MP is of course his own cabbie.
Wasn’t a London cabbie the best ever ‘Mastermind’?
LD = Joel Le Taxi!
18. Vince Gabble? surely shome mishtake…
Would Clegg, Huhme, Cable and Baker and the Lib Dems really want to work with Brown and Smith? Can’t imagine any friendly discussions over a cabinet table over ID cards, expenses or the role of the state etc.
27 Fred Housego.. rather apt in the apalling Housing market
26 And we get this stuff for free? Fantastic analogy…
26.
“John Prescott ate the huskies”
And then he walked out of the tent and disappeared without Tracy!
Martin Day @ 17 — or the government is blamed for the weather, and the complete chaos it caused.
Perhaps Boris is the canniest politician in Britain, and bringing London to a halt has harmed Labour.
I don’t suppose Jacqui Smith’s snouts-in-the-trough story will help much either.
Well the Lib Dem boost trend has been corroborated, as has the Labour crumble. The Tories are flagging slightly and “Others” (BNP?) are making hay.
I think we can all pretty much agree on that after the last series of polls.
26.
“There is nothing left but ……..a slow lingering death.”
Your prediction of Britain under Bliar Chamereon?
re 25. It took a bit of time producing those visuals and I’ve now got a template that let’s me publish the figures within a couple of minutes of me getting them. Speed rules.
I’m never happy with the old fashioned ABC1C2DE categories, but I can understand given limited sample sizes that this is probably as detailed as pollsters can go.
I think the Lib Dems get good support from C2’s locally, but it’s translating their support into GE Votes that seems to be difficult for them. But Rennard is no fool (well, he is, but on a different level) and may will be giving some thought to this.
32 Nah - he’s just gone out to p-p-p-pick up a penguin….
Disasterous poll for Labour. Brown would have hoped/expected that Labour would stay in the 30’s now until the election. To be dropping down into the 20’s again, just over a year before the election is called is terrible news for the government.
Tories solid and heading for a decent majority.
Lib-Dems getting an unexpected boost.
34 Tories flagging - on a landslide. Oh, the trauma…
38 An advert (the one filmed at Edinburgh Zoo and transmitted in the late 1970s) that I adored in childhood
32. If he ate some huskies - I would expect him to leave with a puff of smoke - likely to be green!
When I worked in Westminister I was strolling past a queue of Japanese tourists and the division bell wnt off - “One chap said to the other:what does that mean? I said it means this guy is going to the toilet and pointed to a picture of John Prescott in the evening standard!
I think they believed me!!!!
Looks like the BNP are making ground at Labour expense. Brown has a lot to answer for!!
Well assuming these latest polls aren’t just a snow-related blip, things are panning out beautifully for a Tory landslide with the left split hopelessly between Labour and Lib Dems - a rerun of 1983.
If we can just get the BNP up a tad too, to peel off a bit more of Labour’s support then we could even get a 1931-style result. Quite appropriate really, given that Labour were punished for floundering hopelessly in an economic depression back then, too. Not quite what fish-eyes Balls had in mind…
Evening all
Another interesting poll and a terrible result for Labour after the ICM slump last weekend. Good for the LDs and excellent for the Conservatives.
Any gains made by the LDs at Labour’s expense only translate into a bigger Conservative majority.
38.
A penchant for oily birds?
So what would JP do with a fulmar or flamingo?
From the Times:
Labour and Gordon Brown have continued to fall sharply in the polls despite signs that the collapse of economic confidence may have bottomed out.
The latest Populus poll for The Times, undertaken at the weekend, shows that the bounce in Mr Brown’s ratings after the banking rescue has now been largely wiped out. Labour has dropped by 5 points to 28 per cent since last month, its lowest level for nearly six months. This is still above the low of 26 per cent last summer
The Tories have slipped back 1 point since early January however to 42 per cent, still 4 points fewer than their peak last year. The Liberal Democrats are up 3 points to 18 per cent, their highest level since late August. Other parties, including the Scottish Nationalists, the Greens, the UK Independence Party and the British National Party, have also gained 3 points to 12 per cent.
The decline in public confidence in the economy appears to have been halted, at least for the time being. The number of people thinking that the country as a whole will do well in the coming year has risen from 18 to 20 per cent since last month, with a similar drop in those thinking the economy will do badly, from 79 to 77 per cent.
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These changes are still within the margin of error however and the net balance (of optimists less pessimists) is minus 57 points, the second lowest ever.
There remains a record gap between confidence about the economy as a whole and about family prospects. This month more people think that they and their families will do well in the next year (49 per cent) than badly (48 per cent). The net balance of plus 1 compares with minus 4 points last month.
Women are, as usual, more pessimistic than men by a big margin. Professionals and managers are more optimistic about their family prospects, a net plus of 22 points compared with big minuses for other groups.
David Cameron has opened up a sizeable lead over Mr Brown as the best Prime Minister to handle the recession and to lead Britain forward after the next election. In November Mr Brown was ahead of Mr Cameron by 52 to 32 per cent as the right leader to deal with the British economy in recession. They were level pegging last month but Mr Cameron is ahead by 41 to 32 per cent.
Mr Cameron has widened his margin as the right leader to take Britain forward after the next election from 42 to 35 per cent in November, and 43 to 31 per cent in January, to 45 to 28 per cent now.
The personal ratings of Mr Brown however have recovered somewhat from their low point of July, reflecting the continuing impact of his handling of the banking crisis in the autumn, despite the fall in Labour’s ratings. The number of people thinking that Mr Brown is strong has jumped 22 points to 51 per cent, against a 20 point drop to 47 per cent in the number seeing him as weak. Mr Cameron is ahead on 63 per cent however, up 6 points since July.
The same is true of most other measures. There has been a 17 point jump to 42 per cent in the number believing that Mr Brown is up to the job of Prime Minister but 54 per cent (down 18 per cent) still believe that he is not up to the job. Mr Cameron remains ahead on 55 per cent.
More than half of those questioned however believe that neither leader knows what to do about the economic problems in Britain(55 per cent for Mr Brown and 51 per cent for Mr Cameron) and only just over two-fifths think they have clear ideas (43 and 44 per cent respectively).
The Tories’ image continues to be more favourable on nearly all measures, such as having a good team of leaders, and being competent and capable. The number of people seeing the Tories as united has fallen from 60 to 49 per cent since September however, while Labour’s rating is up from 23 to 34 per cent. The Lib Dems are ahead on unity at 52 per cent.
Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,504 adults aged over 18 by telephone between February 6 to 8. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults.
39 Why is it unexpected LD’s split 2-1 to Labour v Conservatives as a general rule. Labour are a one way bet southwards, can anyone give any reason why Labour should go up in current circumstances barring a huge faux pas from the Conservatives? I expect to see 43 25 21 very soon and it wont be long before the LD’s are knocking on Gordon’s door.
My tip was correct - figures confirmed
see http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5696929.ece
the third pollster to be showing Labour back in the 20s - further evidence that the Brown bounce has almost totally collapsed
So, Mike, what has to happen before we can say that the Brown bounce has indeed totally collapsed? - It certainly feels very much that way to me right now! This Government’s had it and everyone knows it.
45.
“Any gains made by the LDs at Labour’s expense only translate into a bigger Conservative majority.”
With my usual caveat against nonsense extrapolation from mid-term polls, I would point out that this depends where this movement is. If it is mostly in target seats or Tory seats then it will not make a difference one way or another.
47 this para is worth noting
Mr Cameron has widened his margin as the right leader to take Britain forward after the next election from 42 to 35 per cent in November, and 43 to 31 per cent in January, to 45 to 28 per cent now.
26.What the F can Brown do now? He could adopt a John Major type spirit and offer to step asside or even call a snap election which, ofcourse he would lose heavily but at least go out with some honour and integrity left… but ofcourse he wont, he will carry on (health permiting) until dragged out kicking and screaming leaving labour destroyed for 3 or 4 terms minimum !!!
40, Yeah - flagging slightly when way out in the lead isn’t necessarily disasterous.
And it’s all relative. Cameron would probably prefer 42/28/18 to 43/33/15
It was the best way of phrasing “Lib Dems up significantly, Labour down noticeably, Conservatives down slightly” that I could come up with.
47.
“The Lib Dems are ahead on unity at 52 per cent.”
beware the Ides of March!!
53.
“He could adopt a John Major type spirit”
But would Caroline Flint oblige? i think not!
Corporeal. Light ale only, mind. Not even Cava yet.
54 could I be ever so pedantic and point out to several posters that there is no “e” in disastrous …
dis⋅as⋅trous /dɪˈzæstrəs, -ˈzɑstrəs/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [di-zas-truhs, -zah-struhs] Show IPA Pronunciation
–adjective 1. causing great distress or injury; ruinous; very unfortunate; calamitous: The rain and cold proved disastrous to his health.
2. Archaic. foreboding disaster.
I got the Con and LD values spot on. Overestimated Labour by 5 though.
58, pedant
I’ll claim distraction from being too aware of the source of the word (”Bad stars”; “aster” being the star bit)
What puzzles me in the last week is not the LD figure, although my consistant and effective agetation of LD’s would seem contry to this but the slump of Labour by 5%. The last week has not been that Political in my view given the weather? How come Labour slumped by this figure? It’s great! Don’t get me wrong but puzzling!
39 GIN, it’s the very fact that he shows signs of clinging on to power for the next fifteen months that is one of the main reasons that Brown is seeing his support crumble. People are pi$$ed off with Brown and Labour, probably three quarters of the population would welcome an early opportunity to give their verdict on Brown, but he is delaying the inevtable and causing great harm to this country and the Labour Party by doing so.
Brown will have one very brief window of opportunity in early April to call an election after a give-away budget. It probably won’t save Labour losing the next election if he takes that chance, but it will save him going down in history as the last Labour Prime Minister.
57. *drinks cheap student lager*
This is quite interesting:-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1139522/U-turn-row-Boris-goes-decision-dock-pay-snowed-Tube-staff.html
But when you read the comments, they are obviously from the previous story, ‘when Boris had docked the days pay’ all of them supporting his decision. I wonder if they will now all re-comment attacking him for his ‘U turn.’
Which suggests the LDs are perhaps eating into Labour. For Labour, struggling already, thats a stone cold killer blow if that continued.
61. I don’t think people understand just how big a deal this BJ4BW stuff is, especially for ZNL. The snow saved them from a bigger drop i think.
60 astra rather than aster, I think…as in the RAF’s “Per ardua ad astra”
50. Yes, the Brown Bounce has not only collapsed, we are now heading back towards the Brown Bottom Burp of last summer.
-5 points from the last poll. 28%. Oh dear.
And on this encouraging note, I bid you all a very Bangkok good night.
47.
“David Cameron has opened up a sizeable lead over Mr Brown as the best Prime Minister to handle the recession and to lead Britain forward after the next election. In November Mr Brown was ahead of Mr Cameron by 52 to 32 per cent as the right leader to deal with the British economy in recession. They were level pegging last month but Mr Cameron is ahead by 41 to 32 per cent.
Mr Cameron has widened his margin as the right leader to take Britain forward after the next election from 42 to 35 per cent in November, and 43 to 31 per cent in January, to 45 to 28 per cent now. ”
These two findings are deadly for Labour. Shows that people are now seeing Cameron as a PM in waiting and the Tories as a government in waiting.
In other news, Derek Draper confirmed as a cuddy runt:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3339476/playing-politics-with-injured-veterans.thtml
51. When does mid term end? 15 months left out of a max 60 indicates mid term must surely be over soon.
Brown will have one very brief window of opportunity in early April to call an election after a give-away budget.
There is no money - plus Brown has ruled it out: Labour are going to have a while in opposition. Likely to be two terms at least if not 3/4! Never underestimate the propensity for Labour to recover once defeated! How many Labour Cllr’s are their against LD at the moment given 3 Labour wipe outs?
62. Does the governmeny have any money to give away though?
I suppose they can always stick it on the nations credit card!
64 It might be Coldstone if it had not been posted several times today. Do keep up old chap……
Still only about 1.5% swing away from a hung parliament…
71 If Draper wants to play politics with our soldiers’ injuries - whose Party sent them into war ill-equipped?
Still, an outlandish decision by the Council in the first instance.
61, 66, aye this is very interesting. If Labour loses support to the Lib Dems and the Tories stay above 40%, is it the case that the Tories will storm to victory?
Could we be seeing the beginnings of the Lib Dems hauling in Labour?
73. Labour are doomed - DOOMED!
Brown can give as much away as he likes - it will make little difference though
73 Even the UK Black Card is maxed out….
64. It wasn’t “interesting” the first time you posted it and isn’t now.
71. I would have thought, if you subscribe to RodCrosbys swingback theory that Labour shouldn’t be dropping into the 20’s again. The bottom should have been reached back in summer and Labour should now hold steady in the low 30’s until starting to rise in a few months as a happy and gratful nation starts to flock back to wonderful Labour.
Of course, some of us don’t subscribe to this theory.
72 Every month votes will slip away, every month Labour MP’s will get more and more worried, every month, terrible unemployment stats due to Brown’s woeful economic record, every month more bankruptcies. In April the Budget… which will have to tell an element of the truth…
72. I know how you feel about the LibDems Martin, but there is a very real possibility that if the frustration with Brown has another fifteen months to build amongst the Labour core support, then the LibDems could overtake them and beceome the official opposition Party. Once they make that breakthrough, it is difficult to see a way back for Labour, because of the high percentage of people who have been polled, in the past, as saying they would vote Liberal, if they thought they had a chance of gaining power.
Once they become the offical Party of opposition, then they obviously will be seen as having a chance of forming a future governement.
81 We have some interesting Con:Lab marginal by-elections on Thursday. This should give us a good steer, too.
82. Yes it will be fun when Labour have to announce a tightening of fiscal policy.
“Labour drop into the 20s….”
….and the Tories would take us back to the ’30s! ;-(
Eluana Englaro, the Italian woman at the centre of a right-to-die debate, has died. May she now rest in peace.
86. Labour have already done that…
88.
Get back to Ceebeebies. The slump of the 30s was achieved by Tory do-nothing policies.
“Still only about 1.5% swing away from a hung parliament…
by RodCrosby February 9th, 2009 at 8:22 pm”
Not true:
Con 40.5
Lab 29.5
LD 18.0
Gives a Conservative majority of 28 (Wells) and 34 (Baxter).
You sound more desperate than Gabble on a bad day Rod.
Con will gain overall majority on any lead of 7% or more. There will be a disproportionate swing in the marginals!!!
Desperation, wage slave, sheer desperation.
The sleazy snouts story continues to snowball.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/4570956/Home-Secretary-reported-to-parliamentary-standards-commission.html
89. I thought it was a “global” depression? Where have we hard that one?
“Others” up 3 points.
Can’t wait to see the Scotland splits!
89 ‘Get back to Ceebeebies’
Any hint of irony or self awareness there at all??
“Get back to Ceebeebies. The slump of the 30s was achieved by Tory do-nothing policies.”
The slump of the 30s began under the Labour government of 1929-31.
It took the National/Conservative of 1931 to improve things and economy grew strongly from the mid 30s onwards.
Incidentally we have a Labour government at present and it’s policies are turning recession into depression.
61. The fading of the “this recession isn’t so bad - my mortgage has gone down, and everything is on sale”…. the nasty reality is biting.
92 Surprised Tim hasnt been on to give his zero value worth, How will he spin this one? Will he be back to Tory toffs or Tory baners, the same sad nonsense that has absolutely zero resonance with anyone except people like Dolly …..
99 bankers
93. Jacqui is in even bigger trouble…
The Prime Minister’s spokesman says Gordon Brown has full confidence in the Home Secretary.
She’s DOOMED (sorry Martin)
90. Oh dear, another one who takes polls and crude swingometer projections at face value, as if Baxter and Wells are anything more than guesstimates…
Stick around. There will be a guest article [and not a guess article] along shortly…
99, be patient, it takes time for the bunker to decide what the line is.
90
So an 11% Tory lead gives a smaller majority than Labour got with a 3% lead last time?
I sort of knew that, but that is really stark. Are we even worthy of the name “democracy”?
104, unless ‘demos’ is Greek for “corrupt system created by a one-eyed Scottish idiot” then no.
I am somewhat concerned by the role of postal votes in the next election.
Some have suggested that the Lib Dems benefitted due to the BJ4BW fiasco. Unless I’m mistaken don’t they support free movement of Labour too?
MIKE I HAVE E MAILED YOU
106, aye but Clegg never copied slogans from the BNP which he knew he could never enforce (even were he PM).
89. Haha what ignorance.
102. Can’t wait Rod.
102. So Rod, was you expecting Labour to start dropping back in to the 20’s? When will the gratfeul nation start swinging back behind their northern rock?
99 no Tim, no Gabble, no Nick.
I guess someone will eventually appear, to decry a “Tory-boy gloat-a-thon” or suchlike.
Labour are stuffed. They have the stench of death. Even Jacqui’s fishy housing arrangments can’t hide the smell.
I can see the next polls hitting something like 43-25-20. The half-term break will be dominated by Labour MP’s phoning around asking each other “What on earth are we going to do about Gordon?”
Gordon gone by Easter.
Jacqui Smith = Scolari!!!
104 Turnout could be critical. IIRC 2005 was a very low turnout about 60%. The need to kick Gordo and cronies into next week and beyond will be all pervasive. I think the GE turnout will be high, in any event a lot higher than 2005 possibly 70% or more.
113. From Sky
You don’t know what you’re doing”….Sang Chelsea and then Scolari went…How much time for Brown to get rid of Smith…(S)he is useless…Isn’t “one out, all out” a good Union motto…The clock is ticking on New Labour, good ridance the lot of you….
Posted By :Charlie
113 Jacqui Smith = WATFORD
Well, it looks like I was wrong and there is a real Lib Dem upswing. I’m not sure why, but it is the natural conclusion to draw from the facts.
I’m genuinely surprised at how badly Labour’s position is deteriorating.
I wonder how the polls would look now if Blair was still pm ? At least he would have brown next door as his scapgoat for economic mistakes !! Brown has no cards to play, he is responsable the depth and duration of this crisis …
106. But they weren’t on telly saying so, unlike ZNL and the Tories — I think they benefited for a change from their lack of exposure.
(One man theory however.)
Gordon Brown is going to have to go either by Labour ousting him or an election. Either way Labour state spending solutions are the wrong idea. It should be about cutting spending and allowing tax cuts to allow enterprise to recover. No good spending money via government and crowding out a private sector recovery. No matter how much money is spent in Scotland, Northern England etc - that will not create longterm jobs.
By the way - I helped a relative today and was shocked by the number of Immigrants working in the parts of the economy (Locally) i saw today - that is going to cause a huge problem!
O/T I may, of course be proved completely wrong, but I’ve just laid Gianfrano Zola at 7.4 on Betfair = 6.4/1 in old money against him landing the Chelsea Manager’s job.
IMHO he hasn’t a hope in hell, set against experienced hard-nosed European managers - as far as I’m aware he hasn’t yet obtained his full coaching badges.
He may well be the Chelsea fans’ pick, but Mr Abramovich’s very fat wallet is unlikely to be influenced by such factors.
Surely a value bet for those who PBers who like to lay.
114
Agreed, but who’s going to be the most motivated to vote? Labour supporters or anti-Labour? I strongly suspect the latter.
112. Impossible to move Gordon unless he wants to go. The last plot blew any chance of a coup to get him out - they were reduced to egging each other on to ask Sarah to ask him to go…
Lib Dems as the Official Opposition?
For that to happen Labour’s fall from power has to be catastrophic. There has to be a culture shift in the big urban areas away from the traditional ‘party of the workers’ towards Clegg’s more metropolitan-seeming gang. I’m not entirely convinced that will happen. Sure, Labour are now no longer the party of the workers that they once were, but it takes a long time for attitudes to shift. I also think that a major recipient of dissatisfaction with Labour in those areas isn’t likely to go to the Lib Dems but to the BNP, sadly.
111. I was not expecting the polls to narrow as much as they did around Christmas, but as others have said, those polls might have been duff for one reason or another.
Labour is still doing significantly better than last summer, and the Tories worse…
In the right circumstances, Labour could still emerge as largest party on only 32% of the vote….
123. The last plot did not include Mandy
123. Well that was a waste of time, wasn’t it?
The Torygraph, Times or whoever should stake out Prescott’s house and watch for Mandy-Campbell.
123 Never forget the influence of the Prince of Darkness. I could enviage a last desperate throw of the die someone being put forward as a short term replacement. Its going to get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better.
125, the right set of circumstances involving Labour bulk-buying envelopes and tippex?
I would urge anyone to ignore the seat calculators, forget the pseudo science & use of stats that can be twisted to show anything and use their instincts about what is happening out there.
My instinct tells me one thing right now and it is a clear Tory majority and no amount of bull masquerading as science is going to change that.
129 envisage
102
Wells and Baxter could be underestimating the Conservative performance and overestimating Labour as tactical voting will be less likely against the Conservatives and more likely against Labour than in the previous 4 general elections.
I’m sure your upcoming article will be yet another attempt to move the goalposts.
Do you still think that a 5000 Conservative majority at Crewe points to a Conservative majority?
LD’s are unlikely to replace Labour due to the Tories taking about half the LD seats and any gains the LD’s may take off Labour are limited to 10 -20 given the electoral arithmatic.
The next election is between the Tories and Labour however much folk may wish a Labour replacement by LD’s!
123 You forget that Labour DO have form in getting rid of leaders. This Parliament already did the headless chicken thing, to force Blair out on a timetable - over Lebanon! They were facing nothing like this…obliteration of the Party as a force in British politics for perhaps a generation. They might never recover.
There has to be someone better than Gordon to lead them into the election. “Gordon Brown - five more years!” cannot be sold to the voters. It can’t even be put in front of them.
Boris U-turn — did Dave ask him why he wanted to drive tens of thousands of TfL workers away from the Conservatives?
118. It could have gone one of two ways, I feel:
- Banking crisis blows up, Labour rise up against Blair, say that the man controlling the economy (Gordon) should be in charge. Blair ousted, Brown replaces him, we’re back to where we are now.
- Banking crisis blows up, Blair looks statesmanlike, rumblings of dissent in Labour but nothing serious, people blame Brown for being Chancellor and not seeing this coming, at the next reshuffle Blair can get rid of Brown from the Treasury and the man never gets his hands on the levers of power.
I honestly believe Blair’s greatest mistake in office was not moving Brown from the Treasury when he had the chance. It might not even have stopped Brown getting the top job, but even if he had been shunted to the Home Office or something, he would have learned vital experience in other government jobs and would have been able to understand more how government and leadership work, instead of giving us all this dour economic diatribe.
On the other hand, it could have stopped Brown getting the top job, and we’d have been saved from this lunatic in charge.
MIKE can you tell us please where Labour were in the polls when Blair left?
There should have been another question in this months populus poll:
(1) Do you agree with Jeremy Clarksons description of the Prime Minister (Gordon Brown) last week as a ‘one-eyed Scottish idiot’ - agree, or disagree?
Polling these sorts of numbers, Clarkson might have found he wasn’t in such a small minority after all..
131 - A lot of statistics is used in relation to past elections, which is surprising since there have been only 17 since 1945 and only 6 since the SDP split from the Labour party. The sample size isn’t big enough to draw any clear conclusions.
I’m not focussing particularly on a clear Tory majority, but I am now sure that Labour is going to get hammered badly. I would be interested to know whether the missing 3% includes an uptick in SNP support. If it did, that could be quite a few more Labour seats on the line that the seat predictors haven’t picked up on the headline split.
135. But who?
Harriet?…
… Milliband?
…. *Balls*!?
.. Let’s face it, the Blair/Brown wars completely obliterated anyone of any stature having a shot at the top job. I think with Hattie or Straw in charge Labour might be able to save 20 or 30 more seats, but that might be it…
This is for Ave It:
2010 = 1935
:lol: 
141. I can’t find a market on it, but suddenly I think that Prescott might be angling for Gordo’s job, at least in the short term. His bash the bankers campaign is off to a good start, solid Old Labour credentials, former deputy PM. Any odds?
126 But who? Hattie? She is 59 so might think it’s her last stab at the top job, and could persuade the Shadow Cabinet that easing the deputy into the top slot wuld be best for party unity. Only problem is that she would rapidly become even more hated than the OESI. Or would Straw be willing to do it?
I’m genuinely surprised at how badly Labour’s position is deteriorating.
by antifrank February 9th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Bit like Norwich City’s fortunes Frank.
I genuinely fear the worst this season.
142 not 1931 then?
137 The damage had already been done with the usustainable boom. Moving Brown would have done him a favour would it not, as he would have been able to claim that it wasnt his fault as everything as “ok” till he had left. Far better Brown is up to his neck in it as the architect of the boom and bust. Cherie’s final revenge??
145 - That’s not something that surprises me. It does sadden me though. And like you, I fear the worst.
141 Harriet really wants the job though. She isn’t tainted by Blair or Brown, but has steered a “third way”.
She’s inept, yes, but a different - less off-putting - type of inept. Maybe the way to fight a toff is with a toff?
144. I think Hattie would be a better Leader of the Opposition for Labour, personally. If she wants the top job she could go for it now and save a few seats, but she’d still lose the election badly. I think she (and Cruddas) would be the best two candidates for opposition restructuring, though.
149 Hattie would die rather than be considered a toff. NO NO NO!
129.
” Never forget the influence of the Prince of Darkness”
I presume he’s pocketing big bucks from Chamereon to keep GideO busy on knot-tying marine escapades.
152 zzzzzzzzzzzzz give it a rest
The Labour rump of 23-25% is always going to return around 200 MP’s so I can’t see the LD’s become the main opposition anytime soon.
141.
You have omitted Phil Woolas. Hyper-ambitious basically Tory. Stop-at-nothing.
150. I doubt Labour would commit sucide twice? HH would mean a LD Official opposition not at the next election but the one after! HH is so leftwing and anti-male even women will be put off!
133.
People who quote Wells and Baxter after mid-term polls show their total ignorance of UK politics. Why not stick to greyounds?
117
I think it is because the Lib/Dems are ‘eating Labour’s lunch’.
136 Or a decision by TfL HR later countermanded by order of the Mayor? The Standard doesn’t claim that the original decision was the Mayor’s:
“Transport for London had earlier told staff — including train drivers and station employees — that they would not be paid if they failed to report for work last Monday or Tuesday…[snip]
“A spokesman for Mr Johnson said later: “The Mayor has absolutely no intention of penalising anyone who failed to get to work due to last week’s exceptional weather.
“More than 95 per cent of London Underground operational staff made it to work last Monday.
“The Mayor is grateful for their efforts to get as much of the Tube running as possible in those circumstances.”
Later we are told by BoJo’s spokesman
“Around 100 employees were unable to make it to work that day. Their managers are simply following normal procedures by making sure that all absences were due to the weather.”
Aah! Bless! He’s even covering up for whoever made the insensitive decision in the first place.
re 138. For all the polls since the general election see here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
155. My Dad, is a Phil Willis fan after he dealt with him in the 1980’s - the old man was pissed off when i forwarded information about willis last autumn to the national press (It ended up in the mail) when he said something stupid in Leeds about remortgaging in the middle of a credit crunch to get double glazing and roof insallation in the middle of a credit crunch! That said my dad will be voting Tory at the next election as Labour have failed big time! My dad is the ultimate vote on the ecomy only person - Labour have failed!
159 Phil C what has the Bunker been doing over Balls’ huge faux pas? whether true or not?
From the times poll:
The decline in public confidence in the economy appears to have been halted, at least for the time being. The number of people thinking that the country as a whole will do well in the coming year has risen from 18 to 20 per cent since last month, with a similar drop in those thinking the economy will do badly, from 79 to 77 per cent.
I think this is down to the weather rather than policy! Bad weater has eclipsed the economic problems!
154 RAJS - Baxter comes in for a good deal of stick on here, but applying Con 43%, Lab 25% and LD 22%, produces 387, 178 and 56 seats respectively.
157 wage slave - We are no longer in mid-term, we are closer to end-game, perhaps closer than many realise.
Interestingy enough Labour are not as badly off as I had thought as when Blair resigned….its quite remarkable, but there is no ICM at that precise moment
Lab Con LD other
27 June ComRes 25% 46% 18% 27 June Ipsos Mori 28% 45% 16%
27 June YouGov 28% 46% 15%
162 How the f##k am I supposed to know? I think you might be confusing me with someone else!
164. Interstingly for the Conservatives - any improvent in the economy if Obama gets his Trillion dollar stimulous though will not be because of Brown but Obama! The Tories will need to say that this was a US recovery dispite Labour meddling that results in long term economic sluggishness.
164. End-game indeed. My prediction;
Meltdown in the euro elections (BNP do well)
Prescott takes over
Snap general election
Tory majority
164. Yes LD’s would need a considerable lead over Labour to end up level on seats. 40 22 30 still shows Labour with 150 seats and LD’s under 100.
Labour would have to really die before becoming the third party and even in these dire times it looks a little unlikely.
154. In addition to PfPs point, a Baxter calculation, of, say C40/L23/LD25 ends up with 369/174/77 respectively.
So, theoretically, even if the Lib Dems outpoll Labour in the popular vote, Labour will still have over 90 seats more than them, and more than the Tories did in 1997.
133. C&N was an excellent result for the Tories [and the majority was closer to 8,000 than 5,000, btw] but not quite enough to convince me they have a victory of any sorts in the bag. The Labour vote was probably overstated to begin with. Without the “Gwyneth” factor it would have probably been a Tory seat 1979-1992…
As for moving goalposts. What goalposts? Elections are not mechanistic events, and swingometers are not Oracles that can predict the future with any degree of certainty.
280 from previous thread- Wibbler: “The Democrats completely screwed this whole thing up. Not only does the Governor dither like Gordon Brown, he then appoints someone from an upstate seat likely to go GOP instead of Cuomo or any other serious candidate. He screws up communication with the still popular-ish (and definitely popular amongst fundraisers) Caroline Kennedy in the process.
And then, on top of that, out of all the Democrats in NY, even upstate, they couldn’t find someone without tax issues?
They deserve to lose that one.”
Gov. Paterson is proving to be a complete disaster, although I believe a well-intentioned individual. Here’s some color commentary from today’s New York Post:
“Gov. Paterson’s top staff is a rudderless collection of indecisive bureaucrats whose day-to-day operations are wracked by internal chaos and fraught with divided loyalties, key insiders have told The Post. Things have gotten so bad that even some of the governor’s most loyal allies in the Legislature have begun clashing on a regular basis with Paterson’s staffers, whom they call incompetent and politically tone deaf.”
Paterson is just out of his depth and is completely incapable of contending with the piranhas in the New York legislature. The Caroline Kennedy clownfest was just a very high profile example of how Paterson does business. SSI recently expressed a hope here on the pages of PB that Atty. Gen. Cuomo would back away from a rumored primary challenge to Paterson next year. I would suggest, though, that the surest way to turn the governorship of New York over to the Republicans would be to make sure Paterson is next year’s Democratic candidate.
Labour’s sweet spot was either Thursday 4th or 11th December. On the 11th, Labour had had 10 days of only being behind by 1% - 4% in the polls. Labour largest party in a General Election. He could form a Govt of National Unity with Cable as Chancellor, Clegg at Foreign Office. He could even have invited Ken Clarke to make it look truly cross-party. Gordon could then hang around for a couple more years. He could leave as the economy was really showing some green shoots.
And Mandy had set it all up…
168 ‘Prescott takes over’
Interesting.
The last occasions when the leader of the Labour Party changed the deputy was also replaced.
Kinnock/Hattersley, Smith/Beckett, Blair/Prescott.
In this case though it is Harman that has the electoral legitimacy…
174 Prezza PM, Labour at 15% !!!only y loonies would think Prezza capable as a PM.
165. The Tories were double figures then when Gordon became PM it narrowed! To be fair the slowdown started in 2006 in terms of employment and the rot spread gradually from my experience in Financial Services till about Q1 2008 - it then spread to the point we are at now!
169. As I mentioned above, if Labour are to die the good working class residents of inner-city Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham, Newcastle, Sheffield… are all going to have to switch en-masse to the Lib Dems. Only then do the Lib Dems have a large shot of overtaking Labour in seat count.
Short of a revolution in political culture (needing a far more expert operative than Clegg, or even Cable for that matter), it is very difficult to see that happening. The Lib Dems would need more presence and resources on the ground, and we know that is beyond their current means.
Wonder what is happening in the bunker this evening given this poll and the Balls “Crisis more serious than 1930’s”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7880189.stm
Skimming the thread, the only post I can see that has a go at explaining the LibDem jump (I think two polls running are enough to make it a likely real movement) is MTF at 48 - voters who move between Labour and LDs feeling anti-Labour and moving across. That makes sense, I think. Are there any LibDems here who have another explanation? I’ve not detected them getting any special traction with any policy proposals.
I checked. The LD rating for Populus was 16% on the day Clegg became Leader and was 19% the following month for the first poll with him in charge. This current 18% is only +2% or -1% of the rating he inherited depending on how you look at it.
While a 3% rise does lend weight to the weekend ICM figures i don’t think we should get too excited about a lib dem surge just yet.
The financial crisis will be “more extreme and more serious than that of the 1930s”, cabinet minister Ed Balls has predicted.
Mr Balls, a former economic adviser to Gordon Brown, said the global recession would be the most serious for “over 100 years”, the Yorkshire Post reported.
He told a Labour conference that these were “seismic events that are going to change the political landscape”.
The Conservatives said the remarks were “staggering and very worrying”.
Mr Balls, the schools secretary, made the comments at Labour’s Yorkshire conference at the weekend, the newspaper reported.
Mr Balls and Downing Street have attempted to play down the significance of his remarks, insisting he had been pointing out the unique nature of the global financial crisis and was not predicting that the impact on ordinary people would be worse than that experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
179. They’ll be needing a new Nokia shipment, that’s for sure.
For the Lib Dems to become the opposition, assuming Tories stay on 42%, the Lib Dems would need to reach 29% and Labour fall to 15%. 14% ahead to lead by 104 seats to 103. And I thought Zanu-Labour had fixed constituencies badly against the Tories.
This would also give the Tories 412 seats.
Come on you Lib Dem / Labour undecideds. A vote for the Lib Dems is 5 terms for Cameron instead of 4.
180. Nick, old friend - what is the Labour campaign going to be for the EU elections?
169 However…..if the Lib Dems did outpoll Labour, and end up with significantly fewer seats, it would cause a lot more people to start wondering about electoral reform.
So Balls is predicting hunger marches, soup kitchens, mass unemployment. It’s lucky Gordon is saving the world
165 Think you are looking at wrong year - according to Anthony Wells site
Populus/Times 2007-07-01 C34 L 37 LD 18 -3
YouGov/Telegraph 2007-06-29 C 35 L 38 LD 15 -3
ICM/Guardian 2007-06-28 C35 L 39 LD 18 -4
279
They are moving regiments of £billions around the spreadsheet trying to hold back the red numbers
Still no news of the poll on LabourList
68 Scott Are you serious Mandy allowing John Prescott to be PM your having a larf
189
That’s 179 and I have fat-finger syndrome…
179. Clearly the bunker are busy with the most important political event of the year; Thursday is the official launch of Labourlist
190 It does’t have a question about Iain Dale, so Dolly’s not interested
171
Rod, I will look forward to your article with genuine interest.
While it would be foolish for anyone to think that a Conservative majority in the bag it also seems foolish to be discounting the possibility as you seem to be trying to do.
18 months ago I would have expected a hung parliament at the next election but as events have changed, in particularly the uselessness of Gordon Brown as PM and the steady collapse in the economy (which has only just begun), I have had to change my mind so that I now expect a Conservative majority and an especially heavy defeat for Labour.
Incidentally comparing the most recent polls with the exact equivalents from a year ago shows how much things have changed:
Populus
2008 C40 L31 LD17
2009 C42 L28 LD18 C+2 L-3 LD+1
ICM
2008 C37 L32 LD21
2009 C40 L28 LD22 C+3 L-4 LD+1
YouGov
2008 C41 L33 LD16
2009 C43 L32 LD16 C+2 L-1 LD–
ComRes
2008 C38 L30 LD17
2009 C43 L28 LD16 C+5 L-2 LD-1
IpsosMori
2008 C37 L38 LD16
2009 C44 L30 LD17 C+7 L-8 LD+1
Maybe the bunker have taken to the Russian approach to informing president / pm of current news.
Putin gets his own newspaper written by Kremlin officials every day. They edit together stories running in the media both in Russia and around the world. However, they make sure that certain things are missed which will anger him (like the time when several Russian soliders where beaten by superiors and left in the the snow overnight, only for them to die / lose limbs).
I reckon what they do is cut out all the bad news and replace it with nice calm pictures (plastic farm animals perhaps
)!
re 180. Nick - The Lib Dems got, for them, a reasonable amount of coverage last week on their education plans. On the day before fieldwork started Clegg was on most TV bulletins.
My guess is that there hasn’t been much switching in the poll - just a lot of Labour support not being 100% committed to voting.
Vince Cable?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_zpMKqKFHmEg/SY-LP7omKbI/AAAAAAAAAE8/deSecUKwiLQ/s1600-h/Vince+Cable.jpg
184. To achieve parity LD’s would need to poll 32% against Labour’s 21%. Assuming the Tories stay at 40% or above.
The only way it looks possible is if an unpopular Tory government was in power and the floaters moved to the LD’s. However we had this in the late 80’s and floaters just moved back to Labour.
188 thank you for correcting me. All that Chateau Haut Piquat 2001 to celecrate the poll…
190 but to be fair to Dolly, he has done a piece on Guido that was very funny….
191. Only slightly…
I think the idea of John Prescott as PM is perhaps the most ludicrous suggestion ever made, short of Gordon Brown for PM, but John Prescott as a rallying point for Labour support in a general election that will otherwise see them wiped out for a generation; why not?
200 celebrate…
I think Mandy-Campbell need people like Prescott and Polly Antoinette onside if they’re to get rid of McDoom. I can’t imagine they’d let Prescott be PM though. I doubt he’d want it either.
I think the LDs flipping ZNL in very safe Labour seats is dependent on the BNP nibbling at the Labour vote from the other direction i.e 20% BNP, 30% Lab, 30% Lib, 20% Con, type situations.
170,
For the Lib Dems to overtake Labour, the clumpiness of the Labour vote would have to be seized.
As has been pointed out before, Labour have upwards of 200 “donkey-vote” seats in which their core of cores is concentrated. This is why UNS breaks down when taken too far - UNS assumes that the tide of voites rises and falls universally, but with a clumpy distribution, it simply has to break down at the extremes.
Votes sloughing away from a clumped distribution don’t have to come away evenly. The mechanism that caused the clumpiness in the first place is the critical factor: if it remains (kind of like a magnet attracting iron filings), then these Labour redoubts remain all but impregnable. If that mechanism ever fails, then the loss of votes may be overwhelmingly canted so as to preferentially damage the clumped areas until a level field is established. On a level field, 30/30/30 would produce even(-ish) numbers of seats. At the moment, it doesn’t - by a long chalk.
The Lib Dem vote has tended towards “clumping up” since 1992 as they’ve targetted remorselessly, focussing on local issues and encouraging tactical voting for their candidate - all techniques designed to distort the evenness of the theoretical UNS prediction into their favour.
the Tory vote tends to be more even overall (well, a “negative clumpiness” in the seats where the other two are “clumpy”, if you get my drift.
In short (too late …), for the Lib Dems to overhaul Labour, we can’t look at any kind of UNS prediction - they’d have to address the “clumping generator” mechanism (some form of specific attraction of the old Labour core to “working class”/”Traditional Labour”/Socialism) and switch it off. This may be a real challenge, but it is possibly arguable that the New Labour approach has dented the clumping generator over the years to the point where it might - just conceivably - be vulnerable.
Maybe.
And Prescott has suddenly raised his media profile hugely. What is he up to? Is it likely to be operation save Gordo?
Mike, will you at least pledge to get the Smiling Daves out on the morning of May 7th 2010?
201 Hattie Harperson would blow a gasket thats for sure. New Lab infighting would be something to behold. I am not so sure Prezza would be able to shore up core vote. In fact what is core vote for Labour in the endgame, I doubt anyone knows. Gordo could “win” by beating Michael Foot’s 23.5% and that would be one hell of an achievement.
201 Mandy is the playmaker, so it is likely to be a Blairite, or do you think he could get away with it by being interm PM himself
Ok, combining the logic from 203 and 204, are the BNP a “strange attractor” that could pull a large enough clump away to upset a few seats?
201
When we are facing the worst economic crisis for over a hundred years, according to Balls, would it be said of Prescott, he “mobilized the English language and sent it into battle.”?
Doomed, I tell ya…
“if Labour are to die the good working class residents of inner-city Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham, Newcastle, Sheffield… are all going to have to switch en-masse to the Lib Dems.”
Large parts of them already do at local level, though not yet at general elections.
The problem Labour has is that it is an alliance of three groups - Guardianistas, ethnics and white working class - who often have opposing interests and usually don’t particularly like each other. In many ways Scots and Welsh could be termed an ethnic grouping in this classification.
Each of these three elements can find a different party which might suit its interests better. For the Guardianistas the LibDems or Greens, For the ‘ethnics’ SNP, Plaid or various community groups for the non-white part. For the white working class either populist Conservatives or the BNP.
The only thing keeping Labour going is traditional loyalty among its remaining voters.
204. To do that they’re really going to have to do a number of things:
- Drop their tax cut plans
- Drop their EU-fanaticism
- Drop their seemingly ‘PC’ (though I don’t like the term) stance on minorities
- Drop their pro-immigration views
…. it’s going to be a tough task with their policies *as they stand* to appeal strongly to the Labour core…
209,
That’s very possible - some have argued that the BNP attract some who otherwise would have been categorised as disillusioned Old Labour types (others argue that they are ex-Tories, and from some polls even some ex-Lib Dem voters (probably protest voters in the past) move over to the BNP).
It would probably only have an effect in some seats, however, but might dent some of the Labour citadels for other parties (such as the Lib Dems) to slip through.
208 I’m not sure the Labour rule book allows a Lord to stand for the leadership.
211. Indeed and while in government that process will continue. But the next government will be a Conservative one which will have no choice but to cut spending and raise taxes. That will inevitably remagnatise the three parts of the Labour coalition.
05 The liebour party are trying to copy the Obama setup on the blogs pre election
Anybody for Sven next Chelsea manager
and Avran Grant for Portsmouth
re 207. Yes smiling Daves or smiling Harriets
Labour have created the most extreme circumstances in which folk live at this time. Labour need to be removed from office - some look to the BNP - But I look to the Conservatives to create a society where a balanced econmy allows us to look after the weakest in society.
Dem congressman admits that the congressional Democratic leadership has failed to act in a bipartisan manner in advancing the stimulus bill:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0209/Pelosi_Reid_have_failed_Shuler_says.html
I think the poll Socrates previously referred to mentioning relative approval ratings for Obama, Dems and Republicans in the context of the stimulus bill are likely misleading, not least because they almost exactly mirror the approval ratings of those three entities in a non-stimulus bill context. It is unsurprising that it will take a while for public attitudes toward Obama, the congressional Dems, and the congressional GOP to shift.
More telling are the poll results when people are asked directly how they feel about the stimulus bill. The GOP is increasingly on the winning side of that debate and they ought to remain firm in opposition if they know what’s good for them. Their steadfast defiance in the face of Pelosi/Reid hyperpartisanship will pay dividends for years; the opposite course would sink them in the swamps of uncertainty and indecision.
One of great counter factuals of modern British history will be what would have happened if Blair hadn’t resigned from Sedgefield.
I bet if he were still in the commons they’d be polls showing he’d halve the Tory lead and they’d be begging him to come back.
204 - Andrew, fascinating.
One other mechanism could be the withering of voting amongst the lower working / under class, to something of a middle-class hobby?
221. To be fair to Blair; he was canny. He refused to do a Maggie and hang around long after losing the leadership, tainting each subsequent leadership election with his influence. Despite a lot of people saying they’d want Blair back, I’m not hugely sure he’d help Labour that much in its current situation. We’re looking back with rose-tinted specs, I feel.
218 You discount Smiling Nick’s ?
209. I think they’ll definitely upset a few seats that have been Labour since forever by making them marginals. They’re starting from such a low base though which makes it hard to know how many constituency seats they might end up nibbling at.
223 Quite right, I think the bad blood beteween Gordon and Tony runs very deep. Tony would want to see Gordo suffer a massive humiliation. Tony has been there got the t shirt, there is no way on earth he would return,for one thing it would be far to expensive financially speaking.
225. Maybe Nick P can give us some professional insight, but it is not clear to me how much effort they would need to put into campaigning either. It’s not as though they need a particularly nuanced message, it just needs to be loud I suspect.
221. That’s why on the day of the hand-over i said Labour folk should interdict the train! I always thought Brown would be a failure as PM, he has failed the country and economy by such a margin my previous thoughts seem moderate!
Interesting with reference to Blair being the EU President - My view is the Tories should embrace it and contrast it against the domestic failure of Brown. Blair was a needed change and a positive inflience despisite some Conservative disagrements! Brown on the otherhand has been socialist and rolled back the best of th the thatcherite period.
Recession - depression what Balls, will the BBC bother to mention it tonight, seems a rather extreme method by Balls to keep Frau Schidmt out of the headlines. Even Call Me Dave won’t be able to resist asking Gordon how he has turned saving the world into the worst recession in recorded history. PMQs could be fun, unless Brown heads off to a previously arranged appointment in Afghanistan or Iraq.
229. Ed Balls, fear not, Toenails to the rescue
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2009/02/it_was_balls.html
204
The Labour vote consists of too many people who have “vote Labour” in their DNA for them to vote elsewhere. And the LibDems with Clegg as a Leader have no chance as Clegg does not appeal to that sector.
I suspect if the GE is may 2010 , though, ad unemployment si running at 3 million plus, there will be a strong Labour grassroots movement to vote anti-Brown or abstain . The man is a walking PR disaster area .
I would not be surprised if theBNP do not have sizeable swings in some areas..
As for Balls, he is telling it as the Treasury probably see it and of course Yvette will keep him up to speed. Balls may be many things but not a complete fool. His “slip” is stage 1 of the program to allow (or force) Gordon to say things are much worse than anticipated - pre the (delayed) April 09 budget.
The Budget narrative is vital pre a GE - and it is going to show a HUGE deterioration from Darling’s fairy tales in October 08’s PBR.
The narrative has to change in advance. This is how Balls is doing it and don’t forget - who persuaded Brown to change the story on Baby P? Balls.
Balls is laying the groundwork for a humiliating climbdown on the economy and an attempt at a Brown apology.. in my view.
hi folks, have I missed a poll Someone said 3 polls in a row now with Labour back in the 20s. There is this one and the ICM one the other day but the ony other I could see is ComRes on 25th January. There were 2 in between with Labour above 30% (just). Can someone please confirm?
221. Knowing when to leave is one of *the* great skills.
re 232. For the second time tonight this is the list of all polls since the general election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
221,223 etc
GB has always been very popular with the rank and file, where as after the initial euphoria, post 1997,TB was not that popular with the same constituency.A TB return would create an explosion in the ranks,although I for one would support it.
230. No mention on the TV news so far. Instead Nipper the Dog reports on the no Bonuses for Bankers story. Nothing so far on Ed’s big balls up, or Smith’s systematic plundering of her ‘allowances’. Currently followed up by Robert Scourge of the Banks Peston. What a load of Shonit.
Balls is reported as saying…now Nipper has a chance to speak from outside the bunker.
227. Money, getting people to stand as candidates (more risk involved with this than other parties), organisation if they’re campaigning in multiple seats.
Labour have failed the economy and the voters - the bonus debate is stupid as many of the profitable sectors would have been gobbled up by institutions that survived the current crisis! Whatnext! Plumbers on the minium wage! BBC reporters on wages but no Pension! Public sector employees on performance related pay! I wish!!!!
With regards Balls comments,
“In other words, they (Downing Street) accept that he said what’s being quoted but had not meant to say it.”
Now where have we heard that excuse before, on the tip of my tongue
234 Mike,
I had already checked the Wiki poll page, that was why I asked if I had missed one, given that someone referred to 3 in a row, when it is 3 out of 5. Either way it looks great for the supplier of mobile phones to HMG.
Incidentally, Has Labour any money to contest the Euro’s, in fact has either party enough to do it proplerly? I doubt it. Therefore the BBC will be more influential than might have been?
I had to chuckle on the Simon Mayo show this afternoon they went on and on about bonuses for the bankers, and Mayo asked every other Beeb employee that came on if they thought they should get a bonus and if they were. Obviously all said yes, but no they wouldn’t get one. The impression given that the Beeb never give bonuses as they like to say about the bankers “just doing their jobs”.
Of course not, Beeb give bonuses to their executives, with public money, our tv tax money, surely not! Oh wait, hold on a minute, yes they do and have been getting big fat pay out for years.
240. It seems that Hillary has managed to make ‘misspeaking’ a common political trait…
If it was truly a recognition of achievement, Tony McCoy would be SPOTY in December….
“Cameron must be very disappointed with this latest poll” (hat tip H. Blears) “it clearly proves the Tory support is flaky” (hat tip Dim Tim) and that we are “heading for a hung parliament” (hat tip Rod Crosby). “The LibDems are surging ahead” (hat tip Mr Hart, silent ‘P’) and that “Nick Clegg still looks like Kinnock” (hat tip Martin Day)
However, the word “on the street is that the electorate have 100% supports for Gordon Brown” (hat tip NPMP) and although Gabble & Tim have the full backing of URW (plonker), it is still “curtains and other soft furnishings” for Gordon (hat tip SallyC)
The wonderfully fragrant ChrisD was “unavailable for comment” due to Scotland being snowed in, but Stuart.D spoke on her behalf saying… “SNP whining here” or words to that effect.
218. You’ll struggle to find one of Harriet smiling.
246. Very nice post
247 - http://www.pinknews.co.uk/images/harman.jpg
http://www.unionstogether.org.uk/leadership07/images/harriet.jpg
http://cache.jezebel.com/assets/images/jezebel/2008/06/harriet_harman_062608.jpg
249. Caption competition for all 3:
“I wonder how many white, middle-class, straight men I managed to discriminate against today?”
247 antifrank. I think those links illustrate why she doesn’t smile that often.
Balls’ comments the lead on Newsnight. But don’t worry - a laughing happy Prescott is clearing it all up….
220. Shuler is a conservative Democrat in a conservative part of a traditionall red state. It’s no surprise he tries to score some points by blasting the progressive leadership.
What polls are you talking about? Obama has high approval ratings, congressional Democrats have slightly bad ratings, and congressional Republicans have terrible ones. Most people approve of the stimulus, and appreciate Obama has met with Republicans and included hefty tax cuts in the package as a compromise. The hyperpartisanship has come from congressional Republicans in demanding more and more compromises, and then whipping their members in line to oppose it, hence these gallup ratings. The problem with the GOP is they have begun to believe the propaganda put out by Fox News is genuinely a fair reflection on the world. This is the reason why I don’t want the Fairness doctrine brought back - back in the day talk radio and Fox used their spin to persuade the centre, but the centre sees through it now. The only remaining effect of the angry ultraconservative media is to keep the Republican party in a narrow mindset, while repelling the centre into the hands of the Democrats. Let it continue.
249. To think one of those could be on the Downing Street stair case one day. In line with Chatam, Peel and Churchill.
God Help us All.
246 post of the week.
252. Prescott on telly again. I wonder why that might be…
246-Really good!
254. We’ll have Brown’s mug on there soon… what a horrible thought. That no matter how much we’d like to forget his time in charge, there will be a marker there, reminding us all of the horrors…
249. She looks as mad as the Clunking One in that final picture!
Prezza getting stuck in on Newsnight.
Prescott keeps going on about greed. This is a fat man who had 5 houses, 2 jags and was been at it with 3 women.
hhhmmmmmmm
What’s the genius that is Prescott saying? Evil Tory Bankers, stop all bonuses, Gordon will do it, he would never employ those evil (Tory) bankers!
Prezza is an embarrassment - with his simplistic rants it is now clear to me.
Prezza = Tim and I claim my Jag. and gold plated final salary pension.
261
261 - Better not say he is fat, touchy grounds, remember his eating disorder. Not his fault he is a fat bar steward, no it all due to the eating disorder.
It is like calling Gordo,
“a one-eye Scottish Idiot, oh woophs I have said it out aloud haven’t it” (Clarkson, 2009)
we aren’t allowed to do that anymore. You are equating being fat with being greedy!
As funny as it it has/has been having these cretins like Prezza, Mandy, Balls (up) Hattie, Darling, Jackie and the rest of the mob in our hair these past few years, not to mention The Clunking One himself, won’t it be breath of fresh air to consign this lot to history? It can’t come soon enough for me.
227: I think woody has seen more BNP activity than I have so can advise better. In our by-election they’ve put out two leaflets so far, both simple clunky affairs - lithograph of heroic mineworkers in Socialist Realism style, anxious pensioner counting money, EU interfering, British jobs: picture of candidate shows classic BNP stereotype (portly tough-looking chap with shaven head). I’ve heard just one report of their canvassing.
On the face of it their crude message won’t work in this ward, which is full of C1/C2 commuters with relatively low unemployment (1.5% in December) and virtually no real poverty, but they did get within 90 votes of us last time. As Scott says they probably don’t need to be subtle - like UKIP at Euro-elections, they just need to be available for those who want to protest that way.
The nadir I think will be 45-28.Constant and in April/May.
Its the summer and Autumn polls that will decide where my betting money goes.
Although when Tory hysteria reaches a peak in May/June I might go in for a bit of NOM
There is a way that this poll could be bad news for the Tories. If it leads to Brown being forced out. I am very confident of a Tory overall majority at the next General Election. If Brown was replaced I would be less confident but still expect a Tory overall majority. Cameron needs to hope that the May elections are not too awful for Labour as Brown is his biggest electoral asset.
Can anyone tell me what the Local Elections base position is next time? Are Labour defending a high or low watermark?
Prescotts doing a good job of losing Labour a few more percentage points in the polls
269. The county council seats in 2009 were last fought in 2005. Labour has a LOT to lose!
Crude message sadly the BNP will try to make hay with British jobs for British workers, one of Gordo’s pet phrases. Seriously though it would be frightening if the BNP gained real traction. I seriously hope they wont.
267 Lefty Politician raises spyglass to bad eye and says, “I see no BNP”.
267. Yes, the BNP tactic is to portray themselves as victims of a one party state, and then appeal to the victim mentality of a voter. Leaflets are usually pretty poor but they have a dedicated band of followers who turn out and canvass (always in a shirt and tie).
I would estimate they’re getting 3 ex Labour voters fo every Tory voter. I think they’re appealing to a group which could be described as affulent blue colour. Worked hard but are seeing their wages depressed by immigrant labour, been pretty right wing on social issues but always voted Labour in the belief they would look after them. They’re now feeling let down and see the BNP as talking their language.
Peter Riddells article about the poll;
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/peter_riddell/article5697659.ece
A pretty fair assesment, though I don’t agree with him bringing up Labours huge leads in the 90’s. He does enter the caveat that polling methodology has changed since the 1990’s, but then the question has to be asked, why bring it up?
272 - Ever been on demo against the BNP?
Oh thats lefty stuff too I guess.
All the concerns about a possible uplift in the BNP support are correct. As yet we have not seen the detail from the recent ICM poll either.
Earlier polls have shown the BNP coming from under 1% to drawing level with UKIP at 2%.
UKIP have fluctuated between 1% and 2% for much of the past year.
If BNP did get to 4% or 5% that would place them close to getting an MEP in the Euro elections. I hope that instead the increase is for SNP, PC and the Greens. But I do fear it is BNP. BJ4BW.
No getting away from the fact that Vince Cable and now Nick Clegg are starting to pull back middle class support from both labour and Tory. People rate Vince and Nick is looking like a leader at last.
If anyone wants some grass roots about the risks of the BNP and how they are taking hold in certain areas. I’m married to a labour supporter who comes from a small town near stoke on trent and moved down south looking for work years ago. Her parents are semi-retired (do cleaning to help meet their living costs as state pension and little private pensions not enough) they have lived in this town near stoke all their lives. They are working class and although periodically unemployed, they have worked most of their lives. Their neighbours in the social housing they live in haven’t worked for years, some in fact are in their 50’s and have never worked and drive around in new renaults received from state handouts when on incapacity.
It’s a grim economic and social place to visit as a soft tory southerner.
Anyway my in laws are sick to death with this Govt and the decay in their community which used to see them all muck in together. They hate Thatcher but they say the anti-social, benefits class - so called under-class, engulfs them and things are 10 times worse now. They have had enough and someone, anyone is better than this lot. They will go Lib Dem, for the first time in their lives in my in-laws case, but others they know will look at the BNP and that is why extremism is such a threat as this depression unfolds.
272. That’s one of the best arguments you can make for keeping FPTP! For the BNP to become a sizable party at Westminster there would need to be a complete implosion in the Labour vote on a scale that at the minute doesn’t look remotely likely. The Euros are a different matter and quite frankly if the BNP don’t post at least 1 MEP in June then I don’t think they ever will as the circumstances are unlikely to ever be so favourable to them again.
I’ve followed the link in the Riddell article and it just leads to ” Fabulous Sex Survey” on the populus site.
When the details are up it’ll be interesting to check the leadership ratings.
Yuk, Ali Campbell now on newsnight! Prezza and Campbell in one night. How much longer must we put up with seeing these ghastly characters on our screens? [face_sick]
276 - we have jobs…
280 There are few if any BNP in my area and they are unlikely to gain any traction either. I agree about your point of FPTP..
They need about 7% to get Griffin in on the North West List. The other possibility is London though with an incumbant Green, RESPECT and the Lib Dems all battling away for the last seat it’ll be harder.
With regard to FPTP. The BNP do of course have 50 + councillors via that method…
246. I like it!
275. I respect Riddell but it’s astonishing that such a man, who comments on polls regularly as part of his job, fails to recognise this.
271. Thanks GIN. Not good for Brown then.
278. Nick Clegg, looking like a leader? Don’t make me laugh.
Yes, he’s better than he was but he’s still obviously Cameron-lite. Which means he’s essentially Blair-lite-lite. The man is not good enough to be leader.
288 He is not bad enough not to garner votes from Labour however. That is important.
Can someone tell me, was that John Prescott the former Deputy Prime Minister on Newsnight or was it Johnnie Prescott, the former boxer? That cannot have been the Deputy Prime Minister surely? From what he was saying it appears he has had no responsibility for the way the country was run over the past 12 years.
Labour should do OK at the euros according to Anthony Wells because they are working from a low base and the euros come after the locals.
283 - Well done.
Most of the 50 year old women, sat outside a council flat all night stopping an asylum seeker being burnt by the BNP out also have jobs.
274 - Woody - In NWL we are still untested in tory areas so hard to say BNP support is coming in the main from Labour. My canvass experience being one of those with a shirt and tie you speak of is we are taking voters from everywhere somw of the responses we get shock me and after a lot of years in the BNP i really cant see exactly where are vote is coming from nowdays before is was easy now its coming from everywhere. Will have a better ides NW leics wise after the counties and see how we poll in the true blue areas of Ashby. The tory swipe this past weekend makes us look like victims and has helped with the voters in thringstone
253- Socrates, I see that sweeping Democratic victories and basically having everything go your way have done nothing to dampen your anger! Sorry about that.
Anyway, per your request, here’s a poll for you to chew on that directly addresses the stimulus, unconnected to the name of any party or personality:
“Support for the economic recovery plan working its way through Congress has fallen again this week. For the first time, a plurality of voters nationwide oppose the $800-billion-plus plan.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 37% favor the legislation, 43% are opposed, and 20% are not sure.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/economic_stimulus_package/support_for_stimulus_package_falls_to_37
I know you think the Dems can do no wrong and the GOP can do no right. You have maintained that view throughout the recent elections and I guess there is no end in sight to that trend. My position is slightly more nuanced: the GOP was a sure loser in the last elections but events are bound to turn their way as the Dems run out of excuses for their own failure to deliver. It’s as natural as the laws of physics. Perhaps you could set your hatred of the GOP aside for just long enough to acknowledge this.
We are already seeing signs of this natural political swing, as I’ve been pointing out here. If you don’t agree, rational debate is always welcome.
291. Euros and County Council elections on same day, June 4th 2009.
290 Re Prescott.
I apologise on behalf of the whole of Yorkshire. He’s a Yorkshire pudding gone wrong. Too much lard, mixture too thick, oven not hot enough.
288/289. The Lib Dem range on Populus under Clegg’s Leadership has been 15% to 19%. Tonights 18% is on the up but nothing that can be seen as genuine progress. the ICM figure is the interesting one but as yet unconfirmed.
Also with increased ratings comes crutiny. I see the party has nailed its colours to the mast and come out for removing child tax credits for higher income earners and cancelling trunk and motorway improvements.
278 “No getting away from the fact that Vince Cable and now Nick Clegg are starting to pull back middle class support from both labour and Tory. ”
Any evidence for that?
266th ?
Vince Cable has been going around saying that we need big infrastructure projects but today Clegg says we need to cut road programmes.
Go figure! But thats the LibDems all over - say whats popular for the day.
“I honestly believe Blair’s greatest mistake in office was not moving Brown from the Treasury when he had the chance. It might not even have stopped Brown getting the top job,” — YES!
Blair should have sacked Brown in 2001. He could have done this by offering the Home Office which he would have refused. Of course Blair did not do this as Brown would then have openly plotted against him. Blair’s lack of action merely shows how inept Blair was.
Browns not well viewed by labours core - not if ypou consider the 10p fiasco and now he has been rumbled for electioneering over BJ4BW - so its not impossible to think they can go below 28%.
From the way its reported the comparison of Brown in No.10 with the Fuhrer Bunker and moving phantom divisions is eerily apt.
And I have to say recalling Prescott to the colours is akin to recruiting the Volkstrum.
295 I think the Euro results come out later.
300. Counties will mainly count on the Friday, Euros on Sunday evening.
300. yes both poll on the Thursday but the Euro’s will not be counted till Sunday night.
267. Nick if you had the guts to debate with the BNP the other week you would of been in a better place to understand us rather than close the door and have your usual lib klab con debate instead. Still in this by election we will get more active soon and the literature will get better agree just basic so far will speak with them. I see the UKIP candidate lives near the Labour candidate and both quite a distance from the ward haven’t you got anyone that lives nearer?
The Independent Front page
http://www.politicshome.com/UltimateEditorInclude/UserFiles/FrontPages/Independent%2009.02.jpg
Front pages
301. By the way, they’re going to count the next GE on the night still, aren’t they?
I will die of horror if I’m not allowed to witness traditional election night!
304. Presumably an incoming Tory Gov will throw that back at him if he tries to level critisism at them - for the next 15 years.
303 - Fighting fascism by opposing an incinerator Wayne?
271 Sorry GIN you are incorrect , Labour are only defending around 450 seats in the comparable County and Unitary councils this year compared to Conservatives defending around 1,200 and LibDems around 440 . They will certainly lose a high proportion of those but some of the forecasts of Labour losses in the 2009 pb.com exceed the number of seats they are defending .
250. Quite she is just a bigot, but since the people she is bigoted against dont have special minority rights, she gets away with it.
293. Ashby did have 3 out of 5 Labour Councillors in 2007 so not as true blue as the phrase might be defined.
309. How many seats do you think Labour will lose Mark? If last year is anything we can go by we can double your estimate and get the right figure!
267. Dont underestimate them when they get organised. We have two byelections up here in four weeks time, on sat they managed to entirely leaflet both wards and hold a stall in the middle of the town centre.
They had more activists out on that day then the rest of the other parties put together.
309. Mark Senior. That’s very helpful. Thanks. So the Local Election results probably won’t look catastrophic for Labour.
294. Stars and Stripes, please do not mistake vigorous debate for anger! My overriding feeling of politics in the US is still one of unfamiliar and overriding relief that an intelligent, reasonable leader in charge, meaning that I have genuine hope of the right response to issues being tackled in the right way as they come up, rather than my previous feeling of praying that the President wouldn’t compound them too badly. I look forward to the same happening in the UK when Cameron finally gets elected.
I do believe the Democrats - and even Obama - can do wrong. Card check is one example that immediately comes to mind. But they are right on the stimulus. I am open minded enough in my economic views to appreciate that while low debt and smallish government facilitate higher investment and thus higher growth over the long term, in the shorter term Keynesianism does hold true and such a stimulus is good policy in a severe downturn in order to maintain (as much as possible) aggregate demand. Such a stimulus needs to be money that is spent, thus tax cuts for the poor and infrastructure projects, rather than tax cuts for the rich who will just stash it in the bank.
Support for the package has been falling - but that Rasmussen one is the only poll that has shown the disapproves outrank the approves. And it has come at the lowest point for the package, when the Republicans were winning the media cycle and Obama had not come out to really argue it yet. This will change shortly. I accept Reid is inept and Pelosi does not appeal outside beyond her base, and both have failed to make the argument to moderates. But even worse than their performance is the GOP recasting themselves as pure obstructionists when the public wants action. To have zero Republican House members vote for the package looks bad most of all on the GOP, although it won’t be nearly as bad as the conservative base’s reaction to Specter, Collins and Snowe. That will really repulse the centre.
269. Far more then that, the county council seats have been cosseted by having the safety net of coinciding with the general election.
The impact of differential turnout has been toxic for Labour, but these seats have been immune.
These seats havent being contested on their own terms since 1997. 2009 is going to be a devastating blood bath for Labour, and thats if they do well.
276. How gruesome, the idea that i might be involved in something that the UAF, the SWP or the ANL are involved in makes me feel physically sick.
316 - Surely since 1993 as the County elections in 1997 also took place simultaneously with the General?
276 Labour is Acid. The BNP is Alkali.
314 They may well not look terrible in absolute numerical terms but they may well lose half the seats they are defending and only win around 10% of the seats being contested well below the number that the LibDems will win .
309. I think this is very important. Don’t know if many PBers realised this? If Labour are only defending 450 Local election seats then it seems unlikely that the result will be so bad that it triggers Brown’s downfall. I don’t think the electorate or the media are that bothered about the Euro results?
So Brown ought to survive until the next General Election if he wants to. In my view this information only increases the highly likely outcome of a 2010 General Election called by PM Brown and resulting in an overall majority for the Tories.
312 You can see my forecast on the pb.com comp entries - where is your entry by the way ?
Right on cue, a new CNN/OR poll showing that while people are concerned about the cost, they favour the stimulus bill:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/09/news/economy/stimulus_poll/
re 285 there are only 8 seats in the North West. With only 7% they wouldn’t have a hope of winning one of them.
Brown: Depression!
Balls: Worst for 100 years!
Bankers: Give us our Bonuses!
What else is waiting for us? Poor Britain! Lol
324. In the carlisle constituency in the north west, last year without contesting the entire constituency, they got 9% of the vote…..
That’s stopped Ed Balls political career in its tracks. Hatty Harperson’s probably raising a glass or two to his misfortune tonight, as she studies in detail the Full Monty DVD that she’s been watching this evening.
324. Nine, according to wiki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_West_England_(European_Parliament_constituency)
re 326 I’m not doubting it, but no party with 7% of the vote in the NW region will be winning any seats.
Evening all,
Encouraging poll for the LibDems, suggesting there is perhaps some movement Labour->LibDem, with the Conservative share fairly stable (as I’ve been saying it is for a while). We’ll need to see how things develop, although I think talk of the Libdems replacing Labour any time soon as the main opposition is pie in the sky, for the reasons given by RJAS at 155 and others.
One interesting thing which hasn’t been much discussed in this thread is whether the shift away from Labour is replicated in Scotland, and if so whether the SNP are the main beneficiaries. If so, then the odds on them retaining Glasgow East could be tasty.
328. I think the confusion is over the passing of the ‘treason of the british people’ (nice) Treaty. If Ireland had not had the arrogance to ask their voters on the matter, the treaty would have been in place, reducing the number of MEPs for many of the larger member states..
Nine is the pre nice treaty numbers and eight post nice treaty
308 - Tim - Fighting against the tory incinerator planned nearby to the village i live in.
re 328 Rod it was 9 in the last parliament. We lose either 6 or 5 this time depending on whether the Lisbon treaty is ratified or not.
Morning all.
I see RodCrosby is still being hilarious, now moving the amount that the Tories need to lead by to win a majority up to 11%!
And then at 172 he wrotes: Elections are not mechanistic events, and swingometers are not Oracles that can predict the future with any degree of certainty.
I agree. That’s why his devotion to “swingback” is nonsense.
333. Is that going to happen in time to affect the 2009 election?
332 - Where should they put it?
303. Wayne McDermott: you would of been in a better place to understand us
No, he wouldn’t. He might have been, I suppose.
323- CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Feb. 7-8, 2009. N=806 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
“As you may know, the U.S. Senate is expected to vote on a bill that would attempt to stimulate the economy by increasing federal government spending and cutting taxes at a total cost to the government of about eight hundred billion dollars. Based on what you have read or heard about this, do you favor or oppose the bill that the Senate is expected to vote on?”
Favor Oppose Unsure
54 45 1
Even accepting the numbers, that’s pretty close to an even split. And given how a clear majority think the plan is too expensive, there is much hay for the GOP to make in the future as a result of their opposition.
Here’s another very interesting poll finding showing how opposition to the GOP has already softened considerably:
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Feb. 7-8, 2009. N=409 adults nationwide. MoE ± 5.
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republican leaders in Congress are handling their job?”
Approve Disapprove Unsure
2/7-8/09 44 55 1
11/6-9/08 24 73 3
10/3-5/08 27 71 2
That’s an approximately 20 point improvement since election day! The Democrats ignore these developments (as they clearly are doing) at their own peril. Pride goeth before a fall…
311. woody - True but would say ashby far more tory type area than ibstock/ whitwick/thringstone/hugglescote/coalville where we have polled well so far and would enjoy a crack at one there may even stand in ashby myself.
335. I think the http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/ site mentions the changes somewhere.
336 - Tim i dont believe incineration is the answer full stop i dont like the health risks and i would rather we continued down the re cycling route. Especially as Leicestershire is an area where re cycling is going well why should we have an incinerator dumped on us. I would also like to see supermarkets etc take a more considerate position on packaging and waste. Incinearators are not the answer IMHO
334. I’ve done no such thing. The best estimate of the Tory lead is about 13% - a 1.5% swingback would reduce this to 10%, which quite possibly could still leave the Tories a couple of seats short of a majority.
Wait for the guest article, and you might see why…
Do you ever analyse the individual seats that the swingometers so blithely forecast as changing hands, btw?
323- One other note about that CNN poll. I don’t have the details, but I believe the presidential approval rating portion was done in conjunction with the stimulus portion, likely drawn from the same sample. Anyway, the sample seems to have been skewed heavily pro-Obama, as Obama’s approval/disapproval seems to be about 10 points heavy toward Obama compared to other recent polls:
Date/Approve/Disapprove
RCP Average 02/02 - 02/08 — 65.4 22.6 +42.8
CNN 02/07 - 02/08 806 A 76 23 +53
Pew Research 02/04 - 02/08 1303 A 64 17 +47
Gallup 02/05 - 02/07 1500 A 64 22 +42
Rasmussen 02/03 - 02/05 1500 LV 61 36 +25
CBS News 02/02 - 02/04 864 A 62 15 +47
Thus, the sample is probably giving a greater approval for the stimulus than is accurate. Interestingly, putting the two parts of the CNN poll together, approval for the stimulus seems to be about 20 points less than Obama’s approval.
342 - ‘Do you ever analyse the individual seats that the swingometers so blithely forecast as changing hands, btw?’
Quite - some of the gains the Tories are being tipped to make on here (particularly from the Lib Dems) are ludicrous in the extreme.
re 335 the election will probably be held under the Nice treaty which reduces the UK to 72 and the NW to 8.
345. It’s important obviously. You say “probably”, but you’re not certain. How could we obtain a definitive answer?
The stimulus bill has passed the filibuster hurdle and will likely be heading to a conference committee within days:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090210/D968C8R81.html
It’s passage in spite of united GOP opposition will suit the Republicans just fine. Then the Dems better hope like hell that it actually fixes the economy.
I’ve amended my Euro seats calculator to take into account the 72 seats rather than the 73 it was based on and it shows that if the national BNP share is 6.9% then they will win probably 1 seat being the last NW seat.
348. So how many vote do they need in the NW?
re 346 not sure. Not even the Electoral Commission’s website seems to hold the answer. They have certainly calculated the apportionment based on the Nice treaty here
342. RodCrosby: The best estimate of the Tory lead is about 13% - a 1.5% swingback would reduce this to 10%, which quite possibly could still leave the Tories a couple of seats short of a majority.
In other words, they need 11% to guarantee a majority!
350. it is generally considered polite to have a treaty agreed by all parties before implementing it, but of course this is the EU, and their arrogance knows no bounds.
351. I’m sure 11% would produce a majority. 10% would be touch and go…
I have just checked the 2004 results and the LD’s got the last NW seat with 7.9% of the vote. Obviously a shorter list will probably lift this threshold but its still not that high.
Watcher, you are wrong, so wrong!
FPTP is a wretched electoral system, precisely because it does not give people the representation they want. And you want to perpetuate it!
If the BNP have a sizeable percentage of popular support at the next election, that is a point of view that ought to be properly represented in the House of Commons.
Please do not try to perpetuate a discredited electoral system, just because a reform might benefit a point of view with which you do not agree.
I have supported the introduction of STV when it would have been of benefit to the Conservative Party; and now when it might be of benefit to the BNP. I do not support the policies of either party - but I do support their right the representation to which they are entitled.
353. RodCrosby.
In other words, “Yes”.
An interesting article on Obama’s foreign policy priorities and how he sees Pakistan as the key to Afghanistan.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/61729.html
re 350 and following through the Sainte-Lague method it would seem that if Lisbon applies and the UK have 73 seats then the West Midlands would be the lucky region to get the extra seat.
OT: What a complete and utter *unt:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7879926.stm
The man has no shame, he was caught up to his eyeballs in the crap, he even employed his eighty year old mother as a researcher, he only declared the funds because Guido started sniffing around.
He really is truly repugnant.
356. There’s a difference between “guarantee” and “might produce.”
A 10% lead does not guarantee a majority, it might produce one, and it might very well not.
FWIW, I don’t expect the Tory lead to be anything like that on polling day. Half that, if they’re extremely lucky, which means a hung parliament…
359 - I think you are being too kind towards him
He is a disgrace yet will never be voted out
What price democracy?
re 354 The BNP would have won the 11th seat in the NW in 2004
355. “If the BNP have a sizeable percentage of popular support at the next election, that is a point of view that ought to be properly represented in the House of Commons…I have supported the introduction of STV when it would have been of benefit to the Conservative Party; and now when it might be of benefit to the BNP.”
It’s a false fear anyway. I can’t see the BNP making a breakthrough under STV, and under a list system there would almost certainly be a 5% threshold. In a general election, there’s no way the BNP would poll that strongly (at least in the forseeable future).
360. RodCrosby: There’s a difference between “guarantee” and “might produce.”
Exactly, which is why I was trying to get from you a figure to guarantee a majority.
Let’s try another. What Labour lead/deficit do you think they need to guarantee them a majority?
I don’t expect the Tory lead to be anything like [10 points] on polling day. Half that, if they’re extremely lucky
You expect the LibDems to be squeezed that much?
Changes from the Populus before last:
Con +3
Lab -7
LD +1
I think the next poll will show:
Con 130%
Lab -20%
Lib -10%
Which, via Baxter, would give the Tories and 858 seat majority.
364. “Let’s try another. What Labour lead/deficit do you think they need to guarantee them a majority?”
When looking at a Labour majority, a lot depends on the performance of the LibDems and SNP, plus whether your definition of majority includes the SDLP, and the assumption that 5 Sinn Fein continue to abstain…
Can you be a bit more specific?
Did anyone watch Obama’s press conference?
He is peerless when it comes to persuasion. Unbelievable.
Not that I agree with all his policy, but his talent is just preposterous.
367. RodCrosby: Can you be a bit more specific?
The minimum lead over the Tories in the GB popular vote that they need to win 326 GB seats, with the LDs and others in whatever position makes it hardest for Labour to reach those 326 seats.
Having said which, maybe it would have been a little boring for the average viewer - but manna for political fans. The answers were long and replete with detail and example; not sure if that plays well when it interferes with prime-time TV.
Not sure what was bumped to make way for this…
369 “…with the LDs and others in whatever position makes it hardest for Labour to reach those 326 seats.”
Well that’s just silly… SNP on 40%? LDs on 40%?
You have to “fix” these two parties (or at least give a range) before I can answer the main question…
Red Meteor - Are you saying that the BNP will not get 5% in any one of the electoral regions for the European Parliament?
If so, I would ask you what odds you would be prepared to offer.
And I think I would be trampled to death in the stampede to take you on….
372. The BNP comfortably exceeded 5% in 5 of the 9 English regions in 2004…
371. RodCrosby: You have to “fix” these two parties (or at least give a range) before I can answer the main question…
I didn’t when we were talking about the Tories!
Take the LD range as 15-28 (plausible range plus or minus a bit) and the SNP as 20-40 in Scotland.
374. Such a wide range of support would be better addressed using Monte Carlo methods, which I haven’t yet created.
Btw, I think more likely bands, based on opinion polling, would be
SNP 25-35%, with a moderate bias towards 30%+
LDs 15-20%, with a moderate bias towards 18%+
375. RodCrosby.
Go on then. Use them.
Come on then, Red Meteor. You said that “under a list system there would almost certainly be a 5% threshold. In a general election, there’s no way the BNP would poll that strongly (at least in the forseeable future)”.
Rod has just pointed out that “the BNP comfortably exceeded 5% in 5 of the 9 English regions in 2004…”
So then, Red Meteor. I think that you, like so many Tory posters on here, just talk for the sake of talking boastfully.
Precisely in how many Euro-regions will the BNP take 5% of the vote? And if you are talking about a general election, precisely in how many parliamentary seats will they take 5%? Above, you said none.
Come on. Give us some odds. Show us that you are a serious player.
377. B. Hart: So then, Red Meteor. I think that you, like so many Tory posters on here, just talk for the sake of talking boastfully.
A Senior-wing Lib Dem comes out with a great example the Labour Fallacy.
368 370-
I watched it and found him both boring and unclear. If you read the transcript he failed to answer any precise question, using every single one as an occasion for a long lecture quite often totally disconnected of the question. I found particularly annoying his insistence in pretending that the GOP advocates that there is no crisis and that they want to “do nothing” which is a blatant lie.
I am frankly more and more disappointed… (he was even worse on foreign affairs)
Last!
re 380 you’ll have to do better than that!
381-It’s you again! I can’t believe it…LAST!
I think Lib Dems are picking up some support for the Tories because they are gaining traction on economic issues via saturation coverage of Vince Cable, while George Osborne has not had a good run.
Looking forward to the GE, Labour at 28% is already down to its bedrock support i.e. ethnics, benefit claimants, university lecturers/Toynbee-ites. The question is how much support the Tories can lose to the far right and to the Lib Dems (look at local govt by-elections recently to see how little momentum they have). At the moment the Tories are proposing free-market solutions to free-market generated problems and therefore lack credibility. Sufficient numbers of people can remember that it was actually they who mucked up the banking sector through demutualisation of companies like Northern Rock and the railways through privatisation. It is also becoming clear that we actually do need some kind of industrial policy other than just selling everything off to the highest bidder, and on that they have nothing to say.
Given that the Lib Dems usually gain around five points during an election campaign, I would say the next election will pan out Conservatives 39, Labour 29, Lib Dems 25. So probably a hung parliament.
I will try again…last
teehee!