Is a Tory victory being taken too much for granted?
February 3rd, 2009
How much of a certainty is a Cameron majority?
Columns by the Independent’s Steve Richards are not normally my first point of reference but in his piece for the paper today he makes a valid point - the pundits are being premature in regarding a Tory victory as almost a certainty.
We saw it in a number of pieces at the weekend and clearly the terrible spate of January polls after what appeared to be a Labour recovery has had an impact. As Richards puts it: “A very significant shift has taken place since the start of the year. There is now a widely held assumption that the Conservatives will win the next election, probably by a substantial majority.”
Richards lists several reasons why he’s not convinced: “..The third reason relates to the unpredictability of the crisis, which has already led to a new set of widely held assumptions about the role of markets and the state. I will be surprised if the demand is for the government to do less by the time of the next election, and it could already be doing a lot more, including owning more banks.
The fourth reason has to do with Brown’s wildly oscillating political career. My shelves creak with articles that have written him off at various points since 1994. Maybe this time everyone is right, but his resilience and admittedly erratic cunning remain underestimated factors.
Probably none of these reasons will counter the voters’ desire to punish a long-serving, tired and flawed government. But they might. The election is still a long way off, and between now and then, an epoch-changing crisis rages.”
There is another element as well which hasn’t been focussed on much recently. The electoral arithmetic sets the bar for a Conservative success at a very high level. There are lots of reasons for this which we have discussed before but Cameron’s party needs a margin in the vote across Britain of at least eight points before he can be certain of getting that call from the Palace.
Yes - all the latest polls have Tory leads above that but it doesn’t take much of a slip-back for us to be getting into hung parliament territory again.
I have no bets on the final outcome of the election. There is a long way to go.
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1st?
Certainly Richards is right, but he’s also right when he says:
One respected opinion pollster tells me he expects a Conservative landslide. Cabinet ministers privately contemplate a period in opposition. Key Labour strategists are already planning for how their party should respond to defeat. Their discussions include who is best placed to lead them back into power, or at least prevent a descent into eternal opposition.
To cap it all, some of the best political columnists in the land have declared that the game is up. With more than a year to go they conclude that it is all over. David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister … thank you and good night. The political choreography is rearranged subtly to prepare for a change of government.
Inevitably such a shift feeds on itself. The more Cameron is viewed as an alternative Prime Minister the more he becomes one. The more the government is seen as doomed the more it loses authority.
These things can be auto-catalytic.
I think that whilst Steve Richards is probably right to an extent and certainly Brown is resilient, he has been at the top of politics now for a long time, longer indeed than many others have managed in the recent past. The one thing I would point out is that David Cameron has shown over his leadership remarkable calm in the face of the storm. When Brown Bounce I occurred over the summer of 2007 and the election speculation Cameron was one of the few Conservatives failing to panic and just plugged away at his strategy. I think that that is going to tell whatever comes up over the next year.
I am sure that David Cameron is not taking it for granted. If he were, it might be worth betting against.
As James Burdett says, he seems pretty unflappable, and sticks to his strategy, which will make a big difference over the coming year
When Mandelson and Campbell came back they moaned that the Conservatives weren’t being scutinised enough and that they were being given an easy route to power. Richards is just trying the same trick, lamenting the fact that Labour are being given a daily kicking by everyone else.
My post just now didn’t go on the site.
I am far from convinced about the electoral arithmetic. Yes, it was stacked against the Tories in 2005, and arguably since 1992. But 2005 saw them overperform compared to the expected seat tally on the swing.
It could just be that our system accentuates the seats won for the party benefitting from a swing towards them. Add in the (expected) swing back from anti-Tory tactical voting and redistribution and I think the Tories would have a majority on somewhat less than an 8% lead.
Of course a Tory victory isn’t a certainty. The questions for our purposes are:
a) what probability is a Tory victory; and
b) if there is a Tory victory, what scale.
Steve Richards has identified a few reasons why Labour might yet win, but there are reasons (which seem more likely to me) why the Tory lead might well grow. I have applied my conclusions to my betting.
More on topic than off, Polly Toynbee appears to be cooling on Gordon Brown again:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/03/gordon-brown-economic-policy
This is, incidentally, an excellent article from a left wing perspective, and I say this as a non-fan of Polly Toynbee.
6. I’ve just emailed you Mike with the text of my post. Have the snow and ice affected the site?!
I’m amused that, at the foot of Monbiot’s article on tax avoidance is the following:
Cif editor’s note: This article has been published with comments off because of potential legal issues which might arise. Where possible, articles on this topic will be opened to comment during office hours, but please note that posts will be pre-moderated because of legal sensitivities in this area.
I wonder if this is to stop people who’ve read Private Eye commenting?
I’m amused that, at the foot of Monbiot’s article on tax avoidance is the following:
Cif editor’s note: This article has been published with comments off because of potential legal issues which might arise. Where possible, articles on this topic will be opened to comment during office hours, but please note that posts will be pre-moderated because of legal sensitivities in this area.
I wonder if this is to stop people who’ve read Private Eye commenting?
I am a very ‘respectful’ gambler.There is a saying ‘if it’s in the market it’s in the market’.
I trust markets and I read columnists.At the moment 27 chaps out of 127 think Labour will get more Seats than the Conservatives and one chap in ten thinks they will have an Overall Majority.The Spreads say that Labour will get 231 Seats.Betfair and Sporting Index are my household gods.Steve Richards isn’t !
Anyone can say anything and anyone might agree.Let’s see the money,honey !
I don’t often venture an opinion but I think SR is just filling column space……I will now do the same.
However things look at the time the next GE is called,the Conservatives will do better than the polls suggest.The worse things look for them the better they will do PROPORTIONATELY.
I think that whereas the demographics favour Labour as SR points out,everything else favours the Tories.The last four GEs have featured malign tactical voting.Next time it will not and might even be benign.Marginal Seats outside the North will fall like ninepins to Cameron and his men…..and women.
Cameron and his lot won’t be being complacent. They’ll know victory is never certain in politics so will keep plugging away. Mandelson and Campbell’s strategies made some headway against him but were all short term one’s. This confused me, why make a short term strategy then not call an election? Labour spun and spun for months and in the end what do they have, the worst effects of the recession beginning to happen, the electorate bored of their constant announcements and the leader of the tories looking more and more a viable PM.
FAO: Mike/Robert - Technical request
The clock has slipped nearly five minutes fast again. Time to kick the server methinks
Labour will be scheming and plotting ,
Mystery of missing by-election records
EXCLUSIVE: By Steve Bargeton, political editor
THE ONLY official record of who voted in a Westminster by-election that rocked the political world has mysteriously gone missing placing a question mark over the result.
In a surprise result in November last year, Labour won the Glenrothes by-election with a 6737 majority over the SNP.
All the major parties, including Labour on election night itself, had predicted that the nationalists would narrowly win the seat, which borders Prime Minister Gordon’s Brown’s constituency.
The Labour victory sent shockwaves through the SNP and was the catalyst for a revival of Labour’s fortunes nationally.
In December the SNP in Glenrothes applied to the sheriff court to obtain a copy of the marked electoral register—on which officials in polling stations score out voters as they register to vote. It is the official record of who presented themselves to vote.
Candidates and their agents are allowed to see a copy of the register, which records only who voted and not how they voted.
However, after repeated requests for the document last month, Councillor John Beare, the convener of the SNP Central Fife constituency, has been told that it has gone missing.
Mr Beare said he was told renovation work has been carried out at Kirkcaldy Sheriff Court and that some documentation had been removed for confidential waste disposal.
Under the present electoral arrangements, certain papers including voting papers and a copy of the marked electoral register are to be kept by the sheriff clerk for that electoral area for a year after an election.
Last night Central Fife SNP MSP Tricia Marwick said the missing record of who voted places a question mark over the result.
Asked if she suspected foul play, she said, “ No I do not. Nor do I believe it was a fair election.
“All I can say for sure is that the crucial information that proves it one way or another has gone missing.
“I have no evidence of foul play. I sincerely hope not. But the turnout at this by-election surprised everyone and the result was a surprise.
“This is why the marked up register in this election was absolutely crucial.
“Without this register the democratic process has been undermined.
“It is vitally important that voters have confidence that the conduct of the election was fair.
“I am not saying for one minute that something untoward went on, but without the register we just don’t know.
“There must be confidence in the process.”
Mr Beare said that he leans towards a “cock-up rather than conspiracy” theory as to how the register disappeared.
“I do think in the 21st century there is a big question to be asked about how we keep our records,” he said.
A Scottish Court Service spokesman said, “We can confirm that the sheriff clerk at Kirkcaldy Sheriff Court took receipt of these items following the Glenrothes by-election in November and that the voting papers for this election, which were deposited at the same time, are available.
“This is deeply regrettable and we are investigating the circumstances relating to this loss.”
Labour candidate Lindsay Roy won the Glenrothes by-election on November 6 last year polling 19,946 votes with a 6737 majority.
SNP candidate Peter Grant, who is also leader of Fife Council, came second with 13,209 votes.
Some 52.37% of the 69,155 electorate voted.
The by-election was called after the death of MP John MacDougall who had a 10,664 majority.
Richards is desperately Nulab and sounds it in this article. DC has proved repeatedly over the past 2 years to have a clear and effective strategy that is not susceptible to the daily vicissitudes of the British MSM. Unlike the current govt which is hanging on by its fingernails with the ‘headless chicken’ strategy!
of course, it is in the media’s (and this website’s) interest for the next election to be anything other than an easy tory win, so no offence but i will follow the last 12-18 months of polling data and fully expect a tory win.
Serf is right at 4 - David Cameron certainly doesn’t take victory for granted and has repeatedly warned his PPCs, staff and activists not to do so either. Nor does he make any secret of this.
When he was 20% ahead in the polls he warned staff at CCC that the deal is not sealed until the votes are in the ballot box. And publicised the fact that he had given that warning.
No matter how good the polls and canvass returns are, I will not regard a Conservative government as certain until DC is on the steps of Downing Street or my own election as secured until and unless I hear the Returning Officer announce it. A lot can happen in fifteen months and those who take the British voter for granted often live to regret it.
17 - When the polls narrowed before Xmas Dave cacked his pants and backed down to Hague and locked Osborne in a cupboard.
He knows he’s not sealed the deal yet.
If Labour stay above 30% until the summer
a.I’d be amazed.
b.A NOM becomes more likely - At the moment 11/4 is the best price I’ve seen.If that goes out to 4/1 it would be a good bet.
20.
Well, I’m ready for bed now.
19 - Chris,
You have Sellafield in your constituency, what is the Tory policy on Nuclear power now?
9 - Polly is all over the place since Blair was driven out and Iraq stpped dominating her dinner table.
She does make a claim in her article that pay levels have fallen amongst a third of workers….
“mainly due to holding public sector pay and the minimum wage below inflation for several years. ”
Is that true?
20 tim.Good morning ! NOM is almost certainly at the summit of Labour’s expectations.
My column:
If Gordon Brown clings to power until the very last minute or May 2010, all the bad things that can happen to him will already have happened.So if the polls are showing a 20% Tory lead they will in all probability obtain a 15% lead….but do surprisingly well with it.
If on the other hand, buoyed by a series of comparatively good polls(neck and neck) Labour go for a snap election in 2009 that is the situation in which the Tories will do comparatively best and that is the one on which I will be risking all my spare cash and more.
On the day Mike Smithson appeared on The Daily Politics, Neil Kinnock said something very interesting, to the effect that the news media one day are all behind you telling you to ‘go for it’ and when you do they turn on you in a pack.
Exactly, NK !
23
Do your own research .
Another factor not mentioned in the interesting article is turnout. We all know that the Tories’s biggest lead is among those saying they are certain to vote. Among those who usually don’t vote Labour normally has an advantage (there was one poll recently where that vanished, but I think it was a one-off), and given the recent rough ride that’s reaching further up the scale: there are now a lot of Labour voters who say they are 5-8 certain to vote.
Most polls reflect this one way or another (one excludes non-10/10 voters altogether, most others weight for certainty), and it’s difficult to predict whether the 5-8s will harden or soften. That’s IMO an important reason why the Tories are being low-key and dribbling out minor announcements - they’re saying “we’re here but we’re not scary, we’re not planning anything drastic”.
You’d expect me to take the optimistic view for Labour, and I do: when it comes to it, I think the election will be perceived as both close and important, and turnout will be high, especially in the marginals. If so, then punters need to look beyond the headline figures to the balance among 5-10 certains. This still usually produces a Tory lead at the moment, but a slimmer one.
The other factor not mentioned is the attitude of LibDem voters. Polls usually show these as preferring Labour to Tories, by varying margins, but that doesn’t tell us much: I prefer UKIP to the BNP, but I’m not voting UKIP any time soon. What we don’t know is how far they are squeezable in marginals. for this we do need a hypothetical question which occasionally gets asked: “If you thought your preferred party had no chance in your constituency, how would you vote then?”
22. T.I.M.
http://www.conservatives.com/
20. Why don’t you go and play in the snow? Preferably in Siberia.
26. “You’d expect me to take the optimistic view for Labour, and I do”
LOL.
“If you thought your preferred party had no chance in your constituency, how would you vote then?”
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
If the BNP had any chance in any election I would vote for the Party most likely to beat them….unless it was Respect.
In a ‘real life’ situation I would always vote for either of the two major Parties to defeat any other challenger.
I guess there are very few who would give that answer.
Any news on Lorna Fitzsimmons,Nick Palmer ?
One way out of the present predicament would be for everyone to agree to say that the PM is the best thing since sliced Hovis, obviously the best man for the job in these difficult times and then he might pluck up the courage to face the electorate. Then the inevitable will happen - but the comments above about the missing Glenrothes documents are extremely worrying. I too used to think that snide remarks about NuLab resembling a certain southern African ruling party were exaggerated - now I’m not so sure.
26 “I’m not voting UKIP any time soon”
or
“Shock as Labour MP doesn’t rule out voting for UKIP!”
re 26. The latest YouGov poll had the Cameron’s Tories leading Brown’s Labour amongst Lib Dems in the forced choice question.
I spoke to a Lib Dem dinner on Saturday night about this very issue and I was amazed by the response. These were activists and members and my sense was that the majority, not by too big a margin, regard the Tories now as a less worse option.
My assessment is that we’ll lose votes to the Tories in LAB>CON marginals. In LD>CON marginals where Labour does not have a chance we have a very different ball game and these are the seats, I believe, where the overall outcome will be resolved.
“The electoral arithmetic sets the bar for a Conservative success at a very high level. There are lots of reasons for this which we have discussed before but Cameron’s party needs a margin in the vote across Britain of at least eight points before he can be certain of getting that call from the Palace.”
Mike, I fully expect that point to be made time and again my the media as we get nearer a GE, especially during the campaign period.
If it becomes part of the media narrative, then I think that will work in the Conservatives favour. Steve Richards tells us not to write off Brown just yet, but this time, I don’t think he has enough of a personal appeal to save his own career as PM, never mind the government.
I sometimes wonder if the Labour party core vote is keeping Brown afloat, when its quite often been Cameron who has been lifting the Conservative vote. Labour lost control of Holyrood to the SNP in Scotland after only 8 years in power, and as Blair was about to step down, and more importantly, before Brown became the much anticipated new PM.
Although Steve Richards raises good points,the difference now is that Brown is always at the centre of events.The old Macavity joke of his never being around for bad news was grounded in fact.Since he became PM he can no longer avoid trouble and people now see him more clearly.And by and large are unimpressed.
33 Mike - noted on Newsnight report on Straw’s plans for HoL than as well as kicking out or suspending Lords and removing npn-doms there was a third proposal - that Life Peers be allowed to resign the HoL.
Mandelson?
Hope yet for your bet.
33 The LibDems will still have to confront the issue in LD>CON marginals that if the result is close, they could still end up facilitating the retention of Gordon Brown as PM. That potential risk is why LD’s will lose many of those LD>CON seats too.
The overwhelming urge at the GE will be to remove Labour from power. No risks will be taken with any other outcome.
33 Mike, one thing people should remember is that there is now an asymmetry in tactical voting.
While LDs may now be tempted to vote Tory, Labour switchers will still vote LD to keep the Tories out. There is no motivation for Labour voters to vote Tory to kick the LDs out.
This fact alone should keep the LD MP numbers up next time. Punters should bear that in mind.
What has happened to the wildcat strikes story? It has completely disappeared from the BBC website and wasn’t mentioned once between 8 and 8.30 on breakfast news. On Sky it is about 4th out of the non-snow stories.
I know the snow story is important to a lot of people as it affecrs them getting to and from work - but why has the strikes story suddenly become a non-story, at least for the BBC?
Morning all from a very snowy East Ham
I’m absolutely certain Cameron doesn’t take victory for granted and he’ll work hard for every vote and every seat and I’d expect nothing less.
Re: 34 - Absolutely, Mike. There will be some titanic struggles in the LD-CON marginals and I think the LAB-LD marginals will be fascinating too.
Of course, “events” can still work well for Brown. A good crisis, especially international, is manna from heaven for the average leader as it neuters opposition and forces your “friends” to stay loyal.
By the way, while I’m no fan of his, I thought Boris was excellent yesterday - there’s no point investing millions we haven’t got for things like snow ploughs for events that happen once in a generation. I think overall London did pretty well yesterday. In my Borough, Newham, the schools are closed and the side street pavements desperate but the main and secondary roads are all gritted and people are walking along those to get to the tube stations which are open and with trains running.
39 Looks like Boris is backing Mandy. Its being treated as a non-story ‘cos it is a non-story. A strike is only a story when it affects the general public. They can be out for ever, they are not essential,to the running of those plants, if they stay out for too long they’ll be replaced by errr foreign workers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/4443312/If-we-put-a-brake-on-free-trade-the-world-will-skid-into-a-crash.html
Hmmm strange most of the country is coping pretty well, they only place that isn’t is his patch. Perhaps if he spent a little more time being Mayor and little less time writing articles, the buses may have run yesterday.
I did my quarterly Tom Knox’s Anglo-Thai Lefty Friends straw poll last night.
These voters are the expat posh-ish socialists who gave me (my) first worrying hint about Brown Bounce II back in September/October 2008.
This time around? Still a vague amount of wittering about “it’s all Thatcher’s fault, we told you so” (though not quite as vehement and triumphalist as before, as they see the British recession impacting everyone - especially Brits spending near worthless pounds in Bangkok).
But along with the slightly tired capitalism-bashing I heard once again - after a hiatus of a few months - the withering contempt for Brown from the high summer of 2008. “Useless liar”, “stupid git” etc etc.
As for the next election the mood has changed from moody agnosticism to apathetic resignation: these guys think that the Tories are definitely gonna win, but Cameron won’t be any better than Brown: “they’re all the same blah blah”.
I accept rich Guardianista expats living it up in Thailand are probably no more reliable an indicator of British political trends than Rogerdamus’s Villefranche sommelier. However, these guys did predict Brown Bounce 2, as I say - and judging by their reactions Brown is doomed.
Unless, of course, something VERY weird happens. Which it quite possibly will.
36. If life peers are allowed to resign then Baron Phillips of Sudbury may be released from his shackles and a replacement LibDem appointed.
I am amazed you give this journalist the time of day. He is the WORST political seer in the business. So pro labour that he cannot be expected to give a rational breakdown. You have to put his words through a mental shredder and you are normally left with one sentence that sums Richards up, This one is the old old mantra ‘Dont give up on Brown yet’ a forlorn wish/hope by a truly awful pundit.
Richards should be ignored rather than considered.
26.”Most polls reflect this one way or another (one excludes non-10/10 voters altogether, most others weight for certainty), and it’s difficult to predict whether the 5-8s will harden or soften. That’s IMO an important reason why the Tories are being low-key and dribbling out minor announcements - they’re saying “we’re here but we’re not scary, we’re not planning anything drastic”.”
Nick, you are seeking far too much comfort in those figures. We hear much about the Tory lead being *soft*. It doesn’t need to harden or soften, they just need to turn out and vote for the party they are leaning too. Just look at what happened to the SNP and Labour back in the 2007 Scottish elections, and how it effected the Libdems and the Tories up here. Scotland and London have had change, as has London. Why will a Labour government buck the trend in a GE? And why is Gordon Brown investing so much of his career as PM in the election of Obama?
I have been saying for the last couple of years that turnout will be up at the next GE, and the vote will polarise between the two main parties in the way it did in 92′ rather than when the Tories were defeated in 97′. Labour needs to increase their certainty to vote figures into real votes in polling booths on election day, and where it matters rather than in their heartlands. I think you know that, what ever you say about the Tory polling figures being soft.
Gordon Brown is not new, he has been a major part of this government since 1997, has he got something that Thatcher and Blair couldn’t conjure up that would deliver them the support within their own party and a fourth GE victory? I don’t think he has, and more importantly, he has not displayed anywhere near enough personal confidence in his own political appeal to even risk a leadership contest within the Labour party. And that is the most vital political skill missing from his armoury. Its why the Labour party will not win a GE with him as leader.
45.Should have been, as has America rather than London.
“I have no bets on the final outcome of the election. There is a long way to go.”
A bit of a cop-out, Mike! If we’re going to play at political betting, we need to anticipate movements, not wait until there’s no risk (at which point the odds will be so short that there will be no money to be made).
Of course a Conservative victory is not in the bag yet, and Cameron is particularly keen to avoid complacency. In this respect, Brown Bounce II was quite useful, because there were signs of complacency in the party last Aug/Sept, but not any more.
There is a wide range of plausible outcomes. My guess on this is that, barring any totally unexpected events (always possible in politics), there is almost no chance of a Labour majority, a small chance (10%?) of NOM, a very high chance of a decent Conservative majority, and a small chance (10%?) of a landslide, which I define as majority of over 100.
My reasoning is simple: the polls are currently consistent with a majority in the region of 50. What is going to change this?
The economy is tanking, unemployment rising, and Brown is getting the blame. Labour are increasingly looking corrupt, sleazy and authoritarian. The Labour Party is sinking back into internal back-stabbing. Cameron vs Brown is no contest as far as presentation and personal appeal are concerned. Cameron has shown himself to be a master political strategist.
On this basis, whilst the final result may shift either way from what the polls are telling us, they are more likely to shift away from Labour.
I have bet accordingly, whilst the odds are still reasonably favourable (although they have already shortened).
So this article is written by Steve Richards.The man who would probably rather have Robert Mugabe as Pm than Cameron.
Another NuLab fanatic who cant bear to see the end of the Reich.
Dominic Lawson backs Mandy as well!
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/dominic-lawson/dominic-lawson-nationalism-has-its-roots-in-socialism-as-well-as-fascism-1543648.html
Hmmm lets see now,’National Government’ in the offing, Mandy PM, Boris and Dominic in the cabinet, the crystal ball is beginning to clear.
Were they on that bl**dy yacht as well?
Some hard figures straight from one of my household gods.
NOM 23.5%
CON OVERALL 63.5%
LAB OVERALL 10%
Most Seats
CON 80%
LAB 20%
Date of GE.
Q1/Q2 2009 12%
Q3/Q4 2009 15.5%
2010 72.5%
14. “Mandelson and Campbell’s strategies made some headway against him but were all short term one’s. This confused me, why make a short term strategy then not call an election?”
My guess is Mandy-Campbell have been working (successfully) on creating upswings for McDoom to call a snap election but McDoom backs off at the last moment.
OT
I think a Tory landslide is inevitable if things carry on along the exact same trajectory but I don’t think they will. The rest of the cabinet might freeze like rabbits caught in headlights but not Mandy. Unless McDoom gets rid of him soon then eventually he’ll find a way to get rid of McDoom. Either event might change the trajectory.
Error Message: NOM is 26.5% and not 23.5%
41 You have a point about it not affecting most voters - although I did notice busy petrol stations on Saturday, presumably filling up just in case.
However it wasn’t a non-story when I tuned in for a weather reprt about 11pm last night, and Sky are treating it as
less of a non-story.
BTW there’s not much point plugging away at the “Boris supports Mandy” line, I support free movement of labour in a way that most Lefties probably wouldn’t (I would support the use of cheaper labour to undercut existing workers) and my interest in the story is pure Schadenfreude.
9 that Polly article actually (for once) made economic sense. She blames immigration for the depression in wages!
“In the last few good years official figures show that 80% of earners saw very little real extra growth, with most winners in the top 10%. Half of all earners saw no growth at all, and a third saw their real pay fall”
re 23 tim yes that is true. NHS pay increases vs RPI
2008 2.75% vs RPI Apr08 4.2%
2007 1.95% (after staging) vs RPI Apr07 4.5%
2006 2.5% vs RPI Apr06 2.6%
2005 3.225% vs RPI Apr05 3.2%
2004 3.225% vs RPI Apr04 2.6%
So in the last 4 years NHS pay has been raised at the rate of inflation or below it - in the last two years considerably below it.
51 MrJones - “My guess is Mandy-Campbell have been working (successfully) on creating upswings for McDoom to call a snap election but McDoom backs off at the last moment.”
I think they were hoping for an early 2009 election (or at least trying to create the conditions where that would be an option), knowing that there was a narrow window before the full impact of the economic disaster hit home. Alas for them, the timing didn’t work out - the demise of Woolies may have been the key event in this narrative, because it had a disproportionate psychological impact.
55 Chris, do NHS staff still get incremental increases every year? It’s a long time since I worked in the NHS but they did when I was there.
45 i think it will be determined when people think “another 5 yrs of Gordon Brown?” That should be enough for the waverers to vote Conservative.
What this immigration story will do is erode at the core support in the C1s and C2s that Labour used to be able to count on no matter what. The new bottom point for Labour in the polls could be under 20 if we have a few more months of the current stories.
Also sadly the far left/authoritarian BNP is already picking up support drawing level with UKIP’s 2% in the recent Yougov survey.
47. As implied upthread, even though almost everyone is now predicting a moderate Tory win, there is a chance things could get a lot worse than this for Labour, just as, equally, they might dramatically improve.
What I mean is, the odds aren’t that crazily against Labour utterly and totally imploding - not just losing badly.
Look at it this way. What if the economy just gets worse and worse until 2010 (as is horribly possible)? What if the Labour leadership infighting kicks off again? What if these scandals - Lords, Mandelson, Straw - coalesce into one unholy mess? What if Obama spurns Brown cause of Iraq? What if we have riots and unburied dead a la 1979?
What if the Lib Dems also wither and die in favour of the Tories? What if the SNP surge on a tide of Labour-hatred? What if most UKIP and BNP votes go to Cammo, as people vent their spleen on Brown?
In that situation we could easily see a vote split of, say,
48
23
12
This seems far from impossible for me. In that situation the Tories would have a majority of…. 296. Labour would be reduced to a rump of 136 and the Lib Dems would have 9 MPs.
I don’t think this is very likely to happen, naturally. BUT WHO KNOWS.
Heh.
Mike, does your comment about having no bets on the final outcome and there being a long way to go mean that you no longer think that it’s “certain” that Brown will lose?
This is going to get the conspiracy theories running. Maybe you should dig out your old betting slips…. (joke)
Mystery of missing by-election records
THE ONLY official record of who voted in a Westminster by-election that rocked the political world has mysteriously gone missing placing a question mark over the result.
In a surprise result in November last year, Labour won the Glenrothes by-election with a 6737 majority over the SNP.
All the major parties, including Labour on election night itself, had predicted that the nationalists would narrowly win the seat, which borders Prime Minister Gordon’s Brown’s constituency.
Richard Nabavi - “There is a wide range of plausible outcomes. My guess on this is that, barring any totally unexpected events (always possible in politics), there is almost no chance of a Labour majority, a small chance (10%?)”
Will you give me 8/1 against NOM and 100/1 against a Labour Majority?
£20 on each.
63 tim - Why should I? I can get better odds on BetFair or any of the bookies, and make my money at lower risk.
re 57 yes that is true, and I’ve had one (by dint of being promoted to a different band) every year but one in the 16 years that I’ve worked in the NHS, but around 25 to 40% of staff (depending on grade) are at the top of their scale and will get no annual increment.
62. I wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Labour resorted to electoral fraud.
re 47. All my general election betting is short term and so far on the spreads I have made and pocketed a five figure sum on the outcome.
At present I have nothing at risk because I’m not convinced that the Tory seat level will move much from its current position.
I try to anticipate movement, go in, and then if I’m right I take a profit.
This is not a cop out
55 - Thanks Chris, I reread Pollys quote which is deliberately vague on the time scale.
63 tim-You in danger of losing my respect as a political pundit.
I will answer for Richard Nabavi……NO !!!
Why on earth should he(anyone) Lay 9.0 when they could Lay 3.8 and why on earth Lay 101.0 when you can Lay 10.0.
Too many civilians on this site.(frowny face)
re 62. The startling thing about Glenrothes was the massive increase in postal votes compared with the general election - up four-fold if I recall correctly.
It all sounds fishy.
63
Tim, Whom do you think will win the next general election?
70. Indeed - not a hint of suspicion there, thank goodness.
67 Mike - I agree about the spreads. The problem I see with the current levels is that the risk is not symmetric. The reasonable maximum upside is not much more than 25-30 seats (unless there is a Labour meltdown), but the plausible downside is more than that.
I’ve therefore been betting on Con. majority, bands of seats, and individual constituencies, as a lower risk way of playing this.
70.Also, don’t they get an inkling of the postal vote results before the final count on election night? If so, makes Labour’s talk of an expected defeat in the last couple of days all the more fishy…
re 61. I’ve not come to a view about the final outcome and am certainly not going to be betting on it. My approach is to try to work out how the polls will go and what the spread prices will look like in a few weeks. If I sense movement I’ll go in either way.
65 So the figures you quoted, which are presumably for the annual pay round, understate the increase that most NHS employees get. The Civil Service is much the same: no automatic increments each year, but although departments may claim an “increase in paybill” each year of 2.5%, actual individual increases, through performance pay and the like, can be higher.
I neve had much time for top-of-the-scalers. There is a reason you have a pay scale: that is what the job is worth. If you are at the top of it, you are getting a good market rate. Although the ability to reward outstanding performance with a bonus is useful, and you generally revise band boundaries upwards every year - although maybe not in a recession?
53. “I support free movement of labour in a way that most Lefties probably wouldn’t (I would support the use of cheaper labour to undercut existing workers)”
ZNL and the unions do effectively support that. They just haven’t admitted it to their voters until now (ta Mandy) and can’t admit it to their treacherous selves.
70, quite.
The postal vote system is blatantly open to fraud, yet the government refuses to reform it. Apparently turnout matters more than legitimacy when it comes to elections.
55 - By the way, have you seen Derek Simpson taken apart by Aaronovitch today.
Last Friday morning it all seemed so clear. I was listening to Derek Simpson, leader of the Unite union, talking about the unofficial strike in Lincolnshire. “Some of these companies,” he said, “are coming in and saying they will exclusively debar UK workers, that they will not consider UK workers under any circumstances.” So, though the strike was nothing to do with him (being illegal and all), he could “understand the moral indignation” of Brits who had the necessary skills but were now forced to be unemployed and “watch foreign workers who have more privilege because they’re not debarred from these contracts”.
His interviewer then asked Mr Simpson whether he knew for sure that the Lindsey workers had been debarred. “Oh, I think the evidence is there,” he replied. “Some of these contractors have been blatant enough to say that to our local officials.” He was pressed: to say what? “That they will not consider UK workers.”
Mr Simpson’s widely repeated speculation was that the contract at the Lindsey oil refinery had been subcontracted to a company using mostly Italian labour purely for cost reasons. “We’re questioning why they can bring additional workers from overseas with additional costs of transport and accommodation. It’s hard to believe that is possible unless they’re paying lower rates.”
…….But I also called the Unite press office and asked them to supply any details they could of Mr Simpson’s specific allegation that his officials had been told by the “blatant” subcontractors that they would not employ UK workers. A few minutes later a nice chap rang. He wasn’t sure that Mr Simpson had been referring to Lindsey specifically, but there were other situations where this might have happened. He’d ring round and call me back. The call never came.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/david_aaronovitch/article5645229.ece
71 - My odds would be 4/5 Tory 2/1 NOM 6/1 Labour 150k/1 Lib Dem
(ish, without doing a proper book)
re 73. Agreed. One factor with the spreads is that even when things were going well last October - December there were so few Labour backers about.
My theory, as I think I wrote about at the time, was that many big punters have huge negative Labour positions from bets that were made in anticipation of the November 2007 general election. They are so extended on Labour that they are not going to put more on even if the polls totally turnaround.
I know one person who bought Labour at 332 seats at £100 a seat in September 2007 and still has the bet. Ouch!
Out of interest - and apologies if very much out of touch - but exactly where does one find this legion of articles writing off Brown since 1994? In my experience the only thing people have ever said of him prior to his premiership, was how he was the real genius behind the operation with a big future. It is only since he acceded to the premiership that negatives have started to appear - and with some cause, it seems.
re 80 Could I bet at all those prices please? I think I make money whatever happens.
78. Correction - all that matters is the turnout of Labour vote(r)s.
Richards is right in some ways.
Worth remembering the Tories have less seats than Kinnock’s opposition from 83-87 had so in terms of gains it will be a momentous turnaround if Cameron can get any sort of a majority.
BUT, all the evidence suggests that the electorate is a lot more volatile than it was 20 years ago so it’s not impossible that there will be parts of the country turning blue.
Like many, I think the main reason that the Tories will end up with a majority is the man who lives in No. 10 right now - the thought of five more years of him must terrify any sane person.
55. National minimum wage increase is only lower than RPI in the last year (and even that isnt certain given the odd start date.)
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/nmw/archived_rates.htm
60. A total implosion of Labour would be delightful. I’d like to see Gordon Brown’s face the day after he destroys his party. I’d pay to see and listen to the Blairs conversation at the same time.
79 But of course, if Total and its subcontractors had policies of not employing British workers, it would be illegal, as it would be contrary to race discrimination legislation. So of course it would be done in an entirely underhand and unattributable manner.
Again, you seem to be unable to deal with the argument - that British workers seem to be in practice frozen out by Italian and Portuguese workers, whatever the theoretical and legal nature of the situation. As a Righty I’m prepared to say “ho hum, that’s how capitalism works, boys. If you want work in a recession, I’d forget those Union agreements, you should be prepared to drop your price”. This is the implication of the Government’s position, but it continues to dissemble and scheme.
On a technical point, does anyone know the employment position of these people whose jobs have allegedly been lost to Italians? They don’t seem to be employees, as no-one seems to be talking about them having been laid off or made redundant. Are they casual workers who turn up on the offchance of work? Or are they people who have been doing well out of being “contractors” themselves, but now find the lack of job security and employment rights that that entails?
33 - Mike, I know there aren’t that many of them, but what about Lab - LD seats?
Too much tim-bashing on this site.
I think he meant 4-5 Con Overall 2-1 NOM 6-1 Lab Overall.
A very reasonable attempt from a hardline Labour supporter.
60 Ye SeanT, I think it’s well worth contemplating the extreme case from time to time. It helps you to judge the value of a bet. At the moment, it appears you are unlikely to lose if you sell Labour but you could win very big indeed if the catastrophic scenario you describe actually came to pass.
Like you, I don’t think it likey, but it is crtainly not impossible.
Btw, on an earlier thread I sort of challenged you to write a Thread Piece for the Site. I didn’t notice a reply. Did you miss it, or were you merely adopting your customary patrician attitude towards my humble suggestions?
90 That ‘Ye’ should of course be a Yes.
It is not a good idea to pour orange juice on your keyboard.
85 - they could of course simply kick out Gordon from his own constituency.
87. As I understood this - it is a wholly new contract won by IREM(?) who tendered for it against 5 UK and 2 EU firms. Thus no one has actually “lost” a job. The issue is that if one of the UK firms had won the tender, they would have hired (probably) UK workers.
As the firm that won the contract is Italian, I assume that the managers are Italians, and they are used to dealing with Italian and Portguese workers.
89 - Of course I did, what did they think I meant?
re 88 Tabman - I’m planning an article on that. My view is that where the LDs are clearly the challenger to Labour then the party will do well. In three-way marginal situations, like Watford, it’s going to be much harder.
Everything depends in LD battles on the ground war and I’m getting mixed reports on the state of preparedness in key seats.
OFF TOPIC - TECHY QUESTION
I’m typing this on my new Samsung NC10 netbook, it’s very good (apart from the fact that it has just taken me two days to work out how to turn the keypad off after accidentally turning it on).
HOWEVER - when I set it up I accidentally clicked on US English keyboard. Which is fine, other than the fact that @ and ” are transposed (see, they’re the wrong way round). However, I can’t work out how to change this. I don’t want to go back to factory settings because I don’t want to delete all the software I’ve been downloading. Anybody got any ideas? Ta. (and apologies for going off topic, Mike)
89 Sure thing, URW. I make that an overround of approximately 2% - fair enough for a guesstimate. And as Tim is a proper punter who puts his money down from time to time, he entitled to a little more slack than most.
87. Almost all construction work is self-employed / contract.
95 - Mike, that’s a fair reflection, I feel. A reasonable comaprison would be 1997, where Labour came from third to first in many constituencies where the LDs were second.
93 Ta. So my suspicion is that the protestors are long-time contract workers who have been doing very well out of it thank you, and are now miffed because their bluff has been called.
But I could be wrong as I don’t understand the construction industry.
However… rather than standing around in the cold outside an oil depot, why aren’t they off looking for work elsewhere?
100 - well, there is a common human reaction to crisis, which is to seek someone to blame rather than look to one’s own shortcomings. Its usually a mixture of the two.
100 - Because there are elements on the far right and far left who wish local people to have veto rights over who works in there area.
Wher does this stop?Italians, Scottish, Cumbrian, South Lincolnshiremen?
We either have a single market or we don’t, and if this country goes down the route that these protesters want then a British worker on a contract in Sicily say will be the first to suffer.
‘Racist’ Post alert:
On my shuffle down to the CoOp for replenishment of essential supplies, I noted the following.
Only two shops had cleared the snow and ice from their approaches.Both were owned by Ugandan Asians.The chemist in particular had done a thorough and artistic job.
Black marks to an outfit from the sub-continent,the local ‘Chinese’, lazy barbers fron Eastern Europe and a hat-trick of native sons including the CoOp themselves.
103 - 70,000 Ugandan Asians were booted out by Amin.
This country, tragically for all of our standards of living and positions in education league tables, only took 30,000.
We let a huge and valuable resource slip through our fingers.
Makes Gordons Gold sale look piffling.
102. This spinning is very amusing.
My guess so far C1/C2/D/E: Frank Field 10/10, Kavanagh in the Sun 10/10, BNP 10/10, UKIP 10/10 all other commentators 0/10.
105 - I’m glad I’ve amused a regular customer of the local Effigy Shop.
Careful with the lighter fuel.
PetertheP@90.
Hey, no, sorry mate - I wasn’t getting all haut en bas on your Walthamstow ass, I simply didn’t see your comment (even I, with my legendary amounts of spare time, now find it hard to keep up with 1500 comments a day!).
As for writing a blog-essay, I am genuinely flattered, and would be happy to do it, as long as I am allowed to write about: the relationship between IQ and ethnicity, the dubious evidence for global warming, the culpability of Jews in provoking anti-Semitism, the fact that all ex communists should be locked up, the war crimes committed by New Labour in Iraq, and the recent evidence for women being less intelligent than men.
Deal?
105 Sorry Runnymede but I don’t see where the spin comes in. It struck me as a rather bland statement of the free movement of labour within a market.
Am I being dim?
85 andyT - I also think it’s useful to step back and look at the big picture in terms of the state of the parties. My judgement is that in the last two general elections the Conservative vote has been artificially depressed by two problems: the poor state of the party, and the lack of electoral appeal of the leaders. In particular, whilst Michael Howard did a good job in many ways and held things together, he’s not someone who appeals to key centre voters. I think this is more to do with image than policy, but it’s very real nonetheless.
Fixing those two problems has clearly been worth something to the Conservatives, so you have to allow for that in making direct comparisons with 2005. By the same token, Brown is clearly a negative for Labour. So all other things being equal, I’d expect a substantial swing (5%-8%?) just for those two factors. Add in the state of the economy, and you’ve got good reasons to bet against Labour.
I could be wrong, of course. In that case I shall lose some money.
96. OFF TOPIC - TECHY QUESTION
Control Panel / Regional and Language Options / Languages / Details
Add a UK keyboard
105
Well your fellow Conservatives Boris Johnson, Dominic Lawson and William Hague seem to support Mandy’s position, do you?
108 Thanks SeanT. That’s brightened my morning.
You’d have to speak to Editor of course but he’s a tolerant sort of chap. I should have thought the topics you have in mind would be perfectly acceptable. And I doubt the Union of Amalgamated PB Threadwriters and Toshtalkers would object.
Go to it, young man.
113 PtP - Won’t the lads be miffed at the idea of foreign-based writers being brought in to write threads?
111 Thanks. It hasn’t changed it yet, but I expect I need to restart having set the default to UK. Which will be when OpenOffice has finished downloading.
109. Peter - the spinning is the attempt to turn this discussion into one about the niceties of EU labour market rules and/or the risks of ‘protectionism’.
As I have posted before the details of this individual case are not really relevant - the political resonance comes from a) the fact that it flies in the face of Brown’s foolish rhetoric of late 2007 and b) that it appears to validate long-term concerns about the risk of unlimited immigration.
There will be many more cases like this over the months ahead and the public will want to know why the government isn’t taking measures to preserve the jobs of British workers. Airily refering to EU rules or making ludicrous claims about expats being sacked won’t wash.
104. Your post clearly implies that Ugandan Asians are somehow “better” than other immigrants. The only alternative interpretation is that you believe we should let in as many immigrants as possible from anywhere all the time, as the more immigrants the better, full stop.
I can’t believe you stand by the latter interpretation, therefore you must believe the first opinion: that Ugandan Asians are somehow “better” than some other migrants.
Better? In what way? Less lazy than Nigerians? Less devious than Iranians? Less grasping than Chinamen? Less druggy than Czechs? Less likely to punch you in the pub than Poles/Scots/Cornish?
Ugh!
You are a horrible Nazi and I claim my five reichsmarks.
114 Well, if he does it quick he should be OK. I can’t see too many of them picketing outside Mike’s house in this weather.
113 PtP.There are a few Marquee posters on this site and it would be good fun to respond to any one of them for a change.
Sean T is of course ‘a Marquee poster’ despite his lack of weight.
108 - Wrap it all up under one title.
There’s deniers damned deniers and no statistics - a bell ends view of bell curves.
By a Shiite statistician with a Sunni disposition.
116 Oh right. So I was being dim.
116
BJ in today’s Telegraph:-
It is a natural assumption that in times of economic distress we should put our own nation first, and if you want evidence of the strength of this emotion, listen to the voices supporting the current wave of strikes.
It’s all about British jobs for British workers, they say. They don’t want these Italians coming here – no matter how efficient they are – and taking “our jobs”. They want government to stick up for us, the British, and to hell with all this foreign competition.
That is the mood of many angry people, convinced that globalisation has somehow impoverished them and put their employment at risk. Sometimes, frankly, their anger shades into xenophobia – and in so far as they seem to want to cut off the legitimate business opportunities of foreign concerns, and workers from other EU countries, then it cannot be said too forcefully that their sentiments are ugly, mad and wrong.
There you are Runnynose you’re Ugly,Mad and Wrong!
117- I did crucially mention ‘a hat-trick(3 for your benefit)’ of native-sons.
Essentially MY point was to highlight the quality of Ugandan Asians and to mildly hiss and boo the native English.
It pains me to have discourse with anyone who thinks the author of Da Vinci can write.
You are a featherweight meight…..but not irredeemable !
122. We’ll see how long the current political consensus around these issues lasts, shall we?
123. Whatever your point, it was still racist.
122. coldstone agrees with Boris shock
On topic - Not by Tories. I won’t be happy until I see Gordon take his smug face to some non-job at a pointless economic think-tank so he can go save the world somewhere else!
123. I didn’t say Dan Brown could write (he can’t), I said he could plot. Crucial difference.
Plot is the melody of literature. Dan Brown is like someone who can compose a brilliant tune, but can barely play an instrument, and is incapable of reading sheet music.
But who cares, as long as you can compose a wonderful tune? That’s what people love: a good tune.
124
Doesn’t matter which side of the political bread you spread your butter, our lives are dominated by commerce and economics. Globalisation wil go on and on and on try to stop it, those guys might as well try to force a hurricane into a bottle.
128 - so to use your analogy, a true writer would be able to add in all the harmonies, etc, in the way Mozart could write a symphony from a simple theme?
129. Spin as much as you like - it was Gordo who started the xenophobia & it’s Gordo who reaps the crap [sic]
129. Spin as much as you like - it was Gordo who started the xenophobia & it’s Gordo who reaps the crap [sic] & deservedly so.
128 - I agree. I find the sniffy comments about Da Vinci Code totally miss the point. It’s a hell of a story.
123. I didn’t say Dan Brown could write (he can’t), I said he could plot. Crucial difference.
I agree wholly,Sean T and apologise.
The two worst written books of note that I ever finished were the Da Vinci Code and House of Cards.
Both had superb plots and both read as though written by numbers.
It did amuse me the other day that one poster referred glowingly to The Illuminatus Trilogy…..maybe he thought it would look good on his CV.
When I made an admittedly oblique reference to the trilogy he hadn’t a scooby to what I was referring.
Another featherweight !
131
Xenophobia I think the Ancient Greeks started it, didn’t they.
So do you agree with BJ or not?
123, 125. My point was actually aimed at tim, who clearly did make a racist statement, unlike URW, who was just being provocative, I think.
This is what tim said:
“103 - 70,000 Ugandan Asians were booted out by Amin.
This country, tragically for all of our standards of living and positions in education league tables, only took 30,000.
We let a huge and valuable resource slip through our fingers.
Makes Gordons Gold sale look piffling.
by tim February 3rd, 2009 at 10:27 am”
This clearly indicates that tim believes Ugandan Asians are “superior” as immigrants to other kinds of migrants. If a rightwinger had said this - that one race is preferable to another - a risible leftwinger like tim would be demanding police action.
Globalisation is on the way out. Protectionism is on the way in. The last country to realise it will be the most damaged.
122 “There you are Runnynose you’re Ugly,Mad and Wrong!”
Steady on, Coldstone. He may not be wrong.
137. Has anyone told the Chinese ?
117 - I think the point was that Ugandan Asians were all British Passport holders.It makes little sense for any country to direct what prove to be some of the highest performers economically and educationally amongst its passport holders to other countries.
The Chinese have been economic nationalists for the last 20 years.
129 Coldstone - Conservative policy is as it was when Margaret Thatcher made that speech posted recently about the Single Market.
Job of the Opposition though is to critique and examine Government policy. This doesn’t seem to hang together, though as you say above that may more because they don’t want to tell the public what it is. Peter Mandelson expounds that its xenophobia and lies, Gordon Brown calls for BJ4BW, Alan Johnson (Hain & Field in support) says that the Unions and strikers have a case and EU law should be changed. Each tries to spin what was said in different ways.
A mess.
127 David, realistically who would have him? I suppose the Smith Institute could take him on for a while, but how financially sound are they at present?
135. I agree that BJ wants rid of this rubbish govt like everyone else. I agree that Gordo is where the buck stops. Do you?
140. But who are the *worst* performers economically and educationally, tim? Jamaicans? S0malians? Liberians? Should we therefore exclude them in favour of the highperforming Ugandan Asians?
That’s what you are saying. Tut tut. I thought this was regarded as blatant racism over there in ludicrous leftyland.
129. You obviously have a poor grasp of history or are simply very naive to make such a statement.
In the 1860s there was something close to global free trade in goods, by the 1890s protection had been sharply increased by several of the major economies.
Before WWI there was a free market for global capital flows. That disappeared and global capital flows did not recover to the same level (as a share of world GDP) until the 1980s, by some estimates.
Protectionism increased sharply during the interwar years. There was also a breakdown of the global currency system.
In the 1970s, the global currency system set up after WWII collapsed again.
Nothing lasts forever - periods of global turmoil have repeatedly derailed economic liberalisation or undermined long established economic institutions. Politics can and does take primacy over theoretical economics, when the needs must.
MSM still maintaining that UK is in grip of snow horror with expected one foot snowfalls in north and east, with more snow spreading to west, when all the available evidence from their individual reporters shows beautiful blue skies and a bit of rain. A bit like their coverage of the Brown Bounce.
The Unions have previous on this. They rather no jobs than the worng jobs. I remember the continuous bully boy tactics around the Timex plant in Dundee in 1993 for employing non-union members (shock horror). In the end they just packed off. No jobs. For anyone. Union or non union.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timex_strike
145- Not for the first time you are spouting spurious gibberish,Sean T, albeit in the name of ‘humour’.
tim’s point was bang on the money.We could have welcomed more Ugandan Asians without having to exclude ANYONE.
147. No snow in SE Kent, not even anything on the fields as what little fell yesterday melted overnight. You can’t believe everything that the media say about the South East grinding to a halt.
70. The postal vote was in region of 6000-7000 which is what labour won by , very fishy indeed.
151. Can I get my lost betting money back then ?
145 - The point Sean misses is that these people were British Passport holders.
I see no reason to force British Passport holders to live abroad.
Even less so when they are such high achievers.
134 “It did amuse me the other day that one poster referred glowingly to The Illuminatus Trilogy…..maybe he thought it would look good on his CV. When I made an admittedly oblique reference to the trilogy he hadn’t a scooby to what I was referring.
Another featherweight !”
Was that me? I know I mentioned Illuminatus yesterday, but it’s 20 years since I read it and I have probably forgotten most of it. BTW, agree with you on House of Cards, v badly written.
150 well my bit of SW Wilts (rural, few people) is still white, have had a few snow showers already and looks like more later and overnight (though possibility of rain early Wednesday morning). Agree though that The Great Snow Crisis has been a little over-stated.
149
We could have welcomed more Ugandan Asians ? Yes
Would they have been “welcomed”?
As the original intake was not welcome by the general populace - and caused a lot of controversy at the time - more coming in would have been unlikley to have been welcomed. Would it have made any difference in practice?
Unlikely.
(I can remember the fuss at the time)
93. Ken I believe the contract was won by a Californian company, they then subcontracted part or all of it to the Italian company IREM.
154-Phil C. Yes that was you and thanks for the reminder ! Most of what I have to ‘remember’ is 20 years old at least.
I was hurt.
Whenever anyone mentions T’Illuminatus Trilogy I feel obliged to give a wave.
I gave a wave and you ignored it.That doesn’t make you a bad person.
the_mgt.
150 mike sole - Odd. Here in Sussex (not far from the Kent border) it was -9 centigrade last night, and there’s plenty of ice and frozen snow on the ground.
For those wondering if the govt had slapped D Notice on wildcat strikes - not so: now 500 at Stanlow in Cheshire join in
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7866614.stm
152. I wish , I would be in the line with you as I took a bath on the result. There were definitely some dodgy dealings there.
154 Oh yes, the allusion did escape me!
In Hampshire it is sunny, we have had a bit of a thaw and the snow has packed down a bit to about 2-4 inches in most places. Nice and sunny, but it hasa been gently snowing most of the morning (about half an inch on my neighbour’s car).
For anyone wondering about the economy, the Great Depression of 2009-2011 is slowly gathering pace.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/03/51972/land-of-the-rising-sun-closer-to-the-precipice/
162 - Bright blue sky over Berkeley Square (albeit no nightingales in sight - I maintain that the traffic fumes have killed them all) with still lots of snow and compacted ice about. The Brompton ride from Paddington to Mayfair was perilous to say the least. Several fellow brommie-pilots and I formed a little wolf pack for mutual protection.
160 - Shell Workers.
They may be putting British Jobs in Italy at risk.
http://proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/4117/northern-petroleum-and-shell-complete-sicily-channel-licence-deal-4117.html
161 One of the worst of the many high crimes and misdemeanours to lay at Labour’s door - the debasing of the sanctity of the ballot box through “banana republic” postal-vote ballot-box stuffing opportunities. The mere fact that we can have any grounds to doubt the outcome where the majority was 6,000 condemns them.
Another reference from me.
The Last King of Scotland: The best thing to say about this film is that the last king of Scotland,Mel Gibson, didn’t direct.
Ultimately I hated this film whilst watching to the end.
The message is ‘what a lovely guy Idi Amin was,where did he go wrong ?’
When you watch The History Channel you get the same impression of the way they treat Adolf Hitler.
Ugandan Asians WERE brilliant people and they ARE brilliant people.
Some of you may say I’m biased.
144
I’m not sure BJ does want this Government out, he’s seems to be more in agreement with the present government than he does with his own party these days.
As for the buck stopping with GB, yep that certainly is the case, and statements like, ‘British workers for Briitish jobs’ are hostages to fortune.
164 “Bright blue sky over Berkeley Square (albeit no nightingales in sight)”
Nightingales are actually one of the most skulking of British birds, often singing from deep inside a thicket of brambles. Especially if there are blue skies overhead (they generally sing at dawn and dusk). So never easy to see at all - but they do sometimes appear to defend their territory if you can “duet” with them…a rare talent I happily possess!
And in my experience they like heathland, or alongside water. Berkeley Square has probably had no suitable habitat for nightingales for about the past three hundred years…
Oh, and they are migratory, so you won’t see one anywhere until maybe the second week of April.
As Bill Oddie would say.
168 - this your new thing, that Boris loves Labour?
BBC reporting that another unofficial strike has broken out, 500 people gone out in Thurrock, Essex.
I doubt that Cameron is complacent and its true the electoral arithmetic is stacked against the Tories.
However a victory with a majority of 1 is probably worth 30 since as soon as they are in power the Tories - or rather the boundary commission - will redraw the boundaries to be ‘fair’.
146
Protectionism will never return, there may be the odd individual gesture in its direction, but that will be all.
Anyway are the Tory Eurowars about to return?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/feb/02/conservatives-eu
Judging by the tone on this site, the answers yes!
169 - Thanks for that. I now know roughly three times as much about ornithology as I did before, which is roughly three times more than I wanted to
167 I actually thought The Last King of Scotland was about how it is easy to keep deluding yourself into thinking you are doing the right things for the best of motives - whilst unable to see you are simply pandering to power, and the horrific consequences of that shortcoming.
A broader lesson for our times, I think….
Plus Forest Whittaker was quite exceptional as Amin.
173. Just a naive idiot then.
176
Quite
Obviously never read the US stimulus package terms.
But then which Labour supporter ever understood economics?:-)
175 - that was Forest Whittaker?! I just thought Gordon Brown was doing an exceptional bit of black-face.
Too much?
173. “Protectionism will never return, there may be the odd individual gesture in its direction, but that will be all.”
Obama’s stimulus package has a “buy american” clause. The Germans have vouchers to buy German cars. It’s already started.
Interesting to note that new car prices are to rise in the UK due to the fall in the £ . Electrical goods also expected to go up - At the moment global capacity is under-utilised but after global capacity adjusts and global demand normalises we could see quite a few more increases in imported goods. Prices generally under pressure in recent months but inflation is by no means a thing of the past for the UK and could snap back quite quickly even with weak UK demand persisting
164 Fleet of Worlds I thought the “nightingales” singing in Berkeley square was a reference to ahem… a certain type of nocturnal lady?
177
My knowledge of economics is roughly on a par with that great Tory PM Alec Douglas-Hume.
And how they laughed when Alec said that he used matchsticks to work out economic concepts.
If its good enough for him, then its good enough for me.
179. You could of course add all the emergency banking system support, which has ridden roughshod over all competitiveness considerations. Even within the Eurozone, nationally-based schemes are being put in place to shore up financial institutions
More generally, it’s likely protective measures will be more disguised than e.g. in the 1930s but we can certainly expect a large volume of them in the months ahead.
175-Fair post.
The Hollywood ethos makes it impossible to portray Forest Whittaker as a badguy… unless he is a serial killer…….pursued my Morgan Freeman.
The strange thing is that I do not wholly deplore this practice.
It makes for decent human values and very bad art.
Me I prefer decent human values except when reading a novel or watching a film or a play.
@170:
I think Coldstone wants to Keep Redwood Special. Just for himself, like.
179
I shall read the next Tory manifesto with some interest, will it advocate a return to protectionism, I doubt it, I’m sure the BNP manifest will though.
185 - And adopt Dinky’s Saturn child for himself while pissing himself silly on Jim Davidson jokes as he plots the renationalisation of the national grid. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is his entire repertoire.
149, 153. I’ll try again for our beloved lefty retards: URW and tim.
This is what tim says of the Ugandan Asians AGAIN:
“Even less so when they are such high achievers.
by tim February 3rd, 2009 at 11:10 am”
So: who are the low achievers, tim? URW? Logically, and by definition, if one race or group of immigrants is comprised of high achievers - Ugandan Asians, according to you guys - then there MUST be comparatively low achievers.
Who are they, tim and URW? Guyanans? New Zealanders? Inuit? Who are the low achievers against which you compare the Ugandan Asians?
Or maybe in your fatuous lefty weirdo world, everyone is a high achiever!? Hooray! Give everyone a Nobel Prize! Nobody is average and every child is brilliant! Huzzah!
Actually, tim and URW, I know who the low-watt idiots are: you.
187
OOOOH! you understand me so well!
I must be honest I hadn’t realised I’d made such an impression.
179 - I thought the measure subsidised junking cars, not the purchase of a new one, and didn’t specify where the car had to be built.
Please provide a link if its otherwise.
Ford and Vauxhall to raise prices of their cars in the UK by about 5% according to ceefax report. great marketing strategy!
189 - ‘Fraid so….It’s like water torture: drip, drip, drip.
So: who are the low achievers, tim? URW?
188 Sean T. Maybe your daughter will be a low achiever given the low level of social education she has achieved thus far.
Government is to establish Memory Clinics in every hospital. If you can remember the miseries of the evil Thatcher regime, you will be diagnosed as being ok.
186. I’m sure the Tory manifesto won’t mention protectionism except as a bad thing, even if all other countries are all rapidly heading in that direction. As mentioned above, the big difference from the 30s will be countries attempting to disguise what they’re doing.
re 193 Can anyone else heart the distant sound of thunder coming from the far east?
197-I love the sound of thunder in the morning !
‘The Beast of Bodmin Moor’ is about to slip his chain!
190. No, 2,500 euro subsidy if trading an old car for a new one — wrapped up as a green measure.
193. Answer the question, you malignant bloodclot. If the Ugandan Asians are “better”, who are they better THAN?
Try. Try and answer. Just try.
Argument is the currency of this website. But you are like the moneychanger in the temple, taking the shekels and repaying with dreck.
195. We should also remember that protectionism was actually quite helpful in shielding Britain and the Empire from the interwar depression.
A careful reading of the historical evidence may well disabuse some of today’s politicians of their naive attachment to liberalism at all costs - this already seems to be happening in the US.
188 - SeanT.
“Who are the low achievers against which you compare the Ugandan Asians?”
How many more times.
Other British Passport Holders are low achievers compared to British Passport Holders of Ugandan Asian origin.
Ugandan Asians perform better econonomically and educationally than an average of other British Pasport holders.
I’m not arguing that any British Passport holders should be denied residence in Britain.
You seem to be arguing in some bizarre sub Pol Pot idiocy that Ugandan Asians, or some of them should be treated worse than other British Passport holders.
I heard a programme on BBC 4 (radio) over the weekend where Steve Richards presided. One could not help noticing the cold and haughty sounding voice, as his left leaning and Labour sympathies were revealed when he questioned several reporters about events of the previous week.
No, one cannot take anything for granted, especially a GE that will be held in ever threatening and gloomy times, but Richards reasons for disparaging the polls point only to his own preference for Labour.
New thread: “What’ll conspiracy theorists make of the Glenrothes fiasco?
When did I use the word ‘better’.I just said ‘brilliant’.
In your cheap world,Seant T, to say something good about one group implies a denigration of another.
I have very clear views of the poster Sean T and they are not all bad.
‘I’m bigger than you and I’m smarter than you’, and you are no keyser soze !
202. At last. An answer.
So it’s just us Brits who are stupid and lazy, compared to those clever and diligent Ugandan Asians.
I always knew the left was racist - against white Britons. You have proved my point, better than I could have hoped. You are a nasty racist and a vile bigot. You just think your attitude is acceptable because its white people you despise.
206 - New level of idiocy reached there.
Ugandan Asians outperform British Passport holders of all colours and Origins.
Jamaicans,Cornishmen,Guyanans Scots,Indians,Pakistanis etc etc.
206-You are a jumped-up halfwit whose mummy loved him (well done there).
One day you will ascend to the world of men where your every word is deconstructed.
Therein redemption lies.
202 Coming in, in the middle of an argument is usually fatal. But I cant help it.
Sorry tim your argument is ridiculous. However the policy (initiated by a Conservative government) of giving all British Empire citizens British passports, regardless of worth was and is even more ridiculous and fatuous.
Hmmm.. Can’t talk in general, but the Ugandan Asian who worked for me was very fragile - couldn’t start a project, couldn’t finish, constant handholding required. Needed three days of help for one day of output. Nice bloke, but a chocolate teapot.
weathercock you are a very old man(even older than me).
To give you credit I still haven’t figured you out.
If I didn’t know better I would have to say that you were a very ancient,ignorant, preening peacock,cock.
Wonder which repected pollster said to Richards that he thought it would be a Tory landslide.It will be a landslide nyway to get a bare majoity(116 net gains) and it’s worth noting they need 165 net gains(more than Labour’s 146 in 1997)to get a majority of 100.Not saying it’s impossible but just suggests to me 2 figure working majority(with Labour under 200??).
In reply to original thread:
Not really, political philosophy would stipulate that the Conservative keep their heavy ammunition boxed because the Labour Party and their supporters need to disparately restore parity, which is nigh impossible task with current environment variables. This is more or less what people can see watching the media. The Labour Party supporters are throwing themselves kamikaze style to rescue the Brownite regime, whilst the Conservatives are watching in bemused fashion at the slaughter in front of their eyes.
As clock ticks down to zero on Brown’s Regime is when I’d expect the real power plays to be instigated by the Conservative Party and I’d expect a doubling of efficiency of their arguments for change. Of course, no-one has written a modern textbook on politics and therefore these individuals are acting on gut instinct and hopefully some of us at politicalbetting.com can fill in the missing theoretical understandings. Anyway, we’ll all find out soon enough how things turn out!
131. In that case it was a silly remark by Carol Thatcher. She should have apologised, but that should be it. The sacking was absurd, the snitching was odious. For what it’s worth, it is very hard to refer to the particular physiology of black people WITHOUT sounding racist. A year or two ago I referred, on pb.com, to the hair of black people as being “frizzy”. This is of course just a fact. But when I said it, the redoubtable Mrs Test had one of her funny turns, and accused me of being a racist, and she only retreated in her normal flustered confusion when another pb-er pointed out that black people themselves were happy to call their hair “frizzy”, some shampoos are aimed at Afro-Americans with “frizzy” hair, etc.