How daft an idea is this?
January 29th, 2009
Would this destroy the Lib Dems forever
Reproduced about is the start of a big article in the latest News Statesman by Sunder Katwala, General Secretary of the Fabian Society, in which he argues for a pre-election LD-LAB pact which would involve Nick Clegg becoming Deputy Prime Minister.
He argues: “..By the time Barack Obama leaves these shores in April, Gordon Brown should invite Nick Clegg to be deputy prime minister with Vince Cable as chancellor. The coalition would govern for a year - announcing the date of the next election, and legislating for fixed-election dates, too. This year it would focus on the response to the recession, while agreeing on core progressive priorities for the next four-year parliament in both party manifestos.
It sounds impossible. After Tony Blair left Paddy Ashdown at the altar a decade ago, what sounds like a return to the Lib-Lab pact of the Seventies will hardly rekindle the romance. But what if Gordon Brown made the Lib Dems an offer they cannot refuse?”
The big mistake that Katwala makes is in his misunderstanding of the Lib Dem voting base. Yes, perhaps a majority of Lib Dem voters next time would prefer a Brown victory to a Cameron one - but not by a very big margin.
Each month the Daily Telegraph YouGov surveys asks: “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Gordon Brown?” In December the Lib Dem voters split Brown 45% to Cameron 34%. Back in June when things were going even more badly for Labour than they are at the moment the Lib Dem split was Cameron 51% to to Brown 31%.
The December 2008 poll was, of course, taken during Brown Bounce II. My guess is that the latest YouGov poll, due tomorrow or Saturday would see figures closer to the June levels.
I reckon that the Lib Dem parliamentary party would split on similar proportions.
Like many on the left Katwala simply fails to understand what the Lib Dems are about. If this happened, which I don’t think is likely, I, for one, would leave the party that I have been a member of since its foundation and throw everything at campaigning against what I would see as a betrayal. There are others like me.
This surely is a non-starter. It would be electoral suicide for the Lib Dems to do anything that supported the Brown government.
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An absolute non-starter. It would be a disaster for the Liberal Democrats. Gordon Brown’s attitude towards them - he can’t even get the party’s name right - shows what he really thinks.
Non starter is the word.
Assisted suicide for the LibDems is more likely.
On that basis, they will go for it. Or at least Clegg would as he appears to have as much nous as a budgie.
first
Total non-starter. Doubt Brown would want it and we certainly wouldn’t.
What would Mandy do??
Lord Lucan will win the Grand National on Shergar before this happens.
Just wondering if all this stuff about the Interweb will ever see the light of day. This was only the interim report, the final one is another 6 months (at least) away, then the recommendations require new laws to be passed and a new Quango to be set up. Can all of that be done by the time the next GE comes around?
3
ok 3rd
To me it shows how desperate things are that such an idea could even be considered. If anything, knowing now how bad its going to get, it would just taint the Lib Dems with some of the poision. Cleegg would be utterly mad to even consider it, but nothing can ever be ruled out in politics.
Good fun, eh?
All Gordo needs to do is whisper “Proportional representation” into Cleggy’s ear and the LibDems will have convulsions. Half will see it as a poisoned chalice, the other half will be off in cloud-cuckoo-land dreaming… “what if”…. “just maybe it’ll work”.
I love the disclaimer at the bottom of the article whereby the Fabians disown the article!
If Brown is prepared to adopt LD policies exclusively - fair thing. But we won’t get that.
Iirc Clegg has pretty explicitly stated no pre-election deals. So as the article says, pretty much zero chance of it happening.
oh I do hope so. In Scotland we would knock off LibDem seats like crows off a fence. The whole south of England would be blue from end to end. Even Vince Cable would lose his seat.
Please Mike if you have any influence, persuade Nick Clegg that this would be a stunning move.
I am writing as a Labour supporter who would like a Lab/LD pact - so obviously am sympathetic to Katwala’s idea.
Some LDs might be annoyed at the prospect of a pact with Labour, but it does strike me as an odd view to take.
The LDs want PR. PR means coalition gov. As such, they would have to form coalitions with other parties once they get PR (something they have long asked for) as was the case in Scotland.
It strikes me that PR could lead to unstable French 4th Republic type gov’ts unless LDs are willing to make coalitions with other parties (cld be with the Tories but, to my mind, less likely because of the no of LD/Tory marginals in the South). So - to win a referendum on PR - the LDs will have to show that PR is not incompatible with stable gov’t. The way to do this is to show willingness to make deals with the big parties. It strikes me as odd for people to be members of the LDs and want PR and yet not want to form coalitions.
It is possible as a Govt of national unity with some form of PR introduced for the GE. What has Brown got to lose?
What other route have Clegg and Cable got to get into Govt? That is the attraction.
It’s certainly daft. Wouldn’t credit it with being ‘an idea’.
Owenite claptrap, worthy of Aaaronovitch or Andrews. Gordon is closer to Finkelstein than Clegg.
Mike
Fwiw, I wouldn’t vote Liberal again. (I voted Liberal at the previous three elections - tactically in part: Guildford was the constituency.)
Cameron would be cockahoop. What would this do to the marginals? A return to a 2 party system with one side controlled by socialists - a rerun of the 20th century of Tory domination.
14. See? People are thinking about it already.
2.
“Clegg .. appears to have as much nous as a budgie.”
That’s the first time I’ve seen you compare him favourably to Chamereon.
Actually considering we are in a rerun of 1974-79, the renewal of the Lib-Lab pact is overdue.
9 - PR is the issue that may cause me to break with the LD. I do support it, but do not see it as anything like enough on its own. Clegg I believe would the feel the same.
Campbell, Kennedy, Ashdown, Steel, Thorpe however would have done for PR.
14
IMHO It would never pass the House of Lords, they would never accept something as drastic if the ruling party had not made it a manifesto commitment. PR is a non starter.
Do we not have to consider the leader personality issues here. Clegg genuinely hates Brown, in the way Cameron does, plus Clegg seems to a fair number of very cosy chats with Cameron (last reported over how to play as a team against the government on Green-gate). Add to that the old Gordo is no team player and I bet he despises Clegg for being a “Tory, I mean, Lid Dem Toff”.
If the Lid Dem stab Clegg in the back and install Cable for instance, well its game on, as I can imagine Cable wants a go at the controls (even if it requires having Gordo constantly acting as a back seat driver).
Nick Clegg is no doubt wetting himself to get some power though. He’s just a career politician. i ocould see the liberals getting into bed with Labour. When push comes to shove they’re still a left wing party.
The only problem with this thread is that it will be hard to get anyone to write in favour of it. Unanimity is dull. Perhaps the most interesting thing is that a prominent Fabian is so desperate that he clutches at this straw as a possibility. It makes me feel more comfortable about my Labour Sell.
23.
Oracles ideas are about as likely as his own commencement of auto-rectal surgery with a bread knife. Aha!! That’s where he got them from.
Labour run out of cash. IMF wading in. Labour looking like being out of power for a generation. A PM who chickened out of an election when he may have won.
We’ve been here before haven’t we?
Yes - just about time to bring the LibDems in and complete the cycle again.
The only thing history teaches us is that we don’t learn from history…
Rough maths: If the Lib Dems are about 50:50 red or blue then the latest polling would give the Conservatives 50% of the vote. It would destroy Labour too wouldn’t it?
22 - Labour promised a referendum on electoral reform though…. oh darn I’ve seen a problem with that!
24 - Osborne is the guy who looks as if he is wetting himself for power every PMQ. Does not dare wear a grey suit?
23 - there is a Labour commitment to a referendum on PR. In my view, such a referendum should be called.
To be honest, am not sure how I would vote in such a referendum. But - as I said - it does strike me that people who are in favour of PR need to think it through and realise that this means coalition gov’t. LDs might not be used to having to compromise - but it is a skill they will need to learn if we have PR - or else we will have lots of minority gov’ts etc like France before De Gaulle.
I don’t think there is anything wrong with open compromises between parties - it is what good government requires.
FPT: “SeanT - This rumour of Brown’s incontinence appears to be yours and yours alone.
by Frank Booth January 29th, 2009 at 6:23 pm”
Not so, Frank. I only read about it myself this morning: it seems to come from Guido, who - it appears - got it from some (mischievous?) foreign journalists.
I have also said the rumour is juvenile, on the last thread. However the rumour is interesting, narratively, because it shows that Brown is once again becoming an object of withering scorn, as he was last summer.
I’m not sure he can survive another 16 months of being openly laughed at. Few people could, let alone someone with the apparent mental fragilities of Gordo.
Vote Yellow, Get Brown
A lose-lose for Labour, LibDems and the country
I don’t see this as anything other than a rather pointless thought exercise. None of the people involved would do it.
30 Possibly, but thats because the Conservatives sense that Labour are finished and after 12 yrs out of power there is exery reason to feel expectancy.. Grey suits are soo yesterday anyway, I wouldnt be seen dead in one.
Mike, in your picture, who’s the guy on the right?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7856595.stm
Nanny state…
If they did do a deal, how about Opik for a foreign office job
Opik: ‘Time to talk to al-Qaeda’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7735013.stm
Like to see him find their number in the phone book. He could be looking for quite a long time!
Isnt Lembik searching for UFO’s after he got stuffed in the Lib Dem chairmanship election?
Repeated from previous thread for benefit of evening shift….
O/T 2009 GRAND NATIONAL - AINTREE - APRIL 4th
Those who followed the one and only Peter the Punter’s Grand National Tipping Service last year will have been eagerly awaiting an announcement regarding this year’s event. I am now able to reveal the results of endless research and reports from my spies throughout these islands. This year’s selection is…:
Black Apalachi 2points ew
20/1 is available most places. Back it now. The price is flattering largely because the public have gone Denman crazy. He’s in at a ridiculously short 7/1. I don’t say he can’t win but a) he isn’t sure to run and b) he certainly isn’t sure to stay the marathon trip, as those that saw his faltering finish in the Gold Cup last year will know.
If Denman is (much) too short, there is plenty of value to be had elsewhere and since Blck Apalachi ticks all the boxes, he has to be backed. The only caveat is that he much prefers soft ground, so you may want to wait until nearer the day and see how the going is shaping up, but of course if it is soft, his price will shorten dramatically. Indeed, if the ground is any easier than good, I would expect him to go off favorite, with or without Denman.
My advice is therefore to take the value now.
Good luck.
Peter The One And Only Punter (accept no substitutes, not even ‘occasional’ ones
)
35 - indeed
The problem we have with alcohol is that we don’t share the French attitude.
Most French families introduce their children to wine at an early age - and so it loses the mystique of being illicit and only for grown-ups.
If we had a similar relationship with alcohol over here, I am sure that a good percentage of the problem would disappear.
Indeed SeanT, the ridicule quotiant is right up there again with last summer. Brown’s a laughing stock, and all that Labour supporters can say in his defence is “it’s rude to mock the mentally afflicted”. What a sorry state………
33 - Where did Gideons old suit with the white stripes go?
33 - I think you miss my point. I want to know if Ozzy does pi$$ himself at PMQs. Can’t tell in a dark suit, but his juvenile demeanor suggests he does.
Mike, are you oppposed in theory to coalitions? Or is your objection narrow, but in that case to what degree?
For example, what about Tory-LD coalition?
BTW, in the Great White North (and don’t mean Sarah Palin’s home turf) new Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatiev (aka Iggy) has scuppered the proposed coalition with New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois. An idea that if anything was more unpopular with Liberals than Conservatives, due to potential for deadly embrace with radicalism and (even worse) separatism.
Note that the rise of Iggy has been matched by improving fortunes for Liberals in Quebec. Even though he kicked out (none to gently) the former Lib leader who was French Canadian. BUT the Liberals did manage to preverse their sacred tradition, of alternating Francophone/English-speaking leaders, which has been unbroken since the glory days of Sir Wilfrid Laurier a century ago. And replace a dud with a respectable (if still very green) alternative.
Key factor right now is economy. Conservative PM Steven Harper has allowed his hubris to put him and his minority govt right in the middle of some very thin ice. By refusing to topple Smary Steve from his perch (instead, proposing budget amendment with benchmarks the Tories have signed of on, leastways for time being) Iggy has underlined fact that Tories are responsible (in at least one sense of word) for current mess. And though Canuck Tory pundits (including the felonous Lord Blackheart who renounced his birthright for a brass coronet) are saying that Iggy is not the kind of team player the voters (and President Obama, soon to visit as PM’s official quest) expect in these troubled times. Except the voters know full well that it was Harper who played the political heavy to get the political crisis started. And by breaking with BQ, Iggy has demonstrated his committment to the National Dream. Whereas until a few months ago, Harper and Tories were very conspiciously playing footsie with the seperatistes (and old Anglo Tory game).
KEEP YOUR EYE ON ONTARIO . . .
32. “Vote Yellow, Get Brown” Are we still on the Brown wetting himself rumour?
I would love to see a LibLab pact before the election, or even the hint of one afterwards which Clegg would not deny.
Yellow taxi, yellow taxi.
42. Pisses himself laughing at Gordon’s pathetic performances, maybe.
you mean vote Brown, get Yellow, Scampi….
Voting Yellow and getting Brown sounds like an even bigger smelly mess…..
Sunder’s desperate and ludicrous flailings in attempt to justify the Fabians’ continued apologia for the a failed government is wonderfully bathetic.
I know the Fabians are nominally decent people. However, no amount of intellectual gymnastics will make up for the fact that your beloved movement has (a) bankrupted the country, and (b) been the most authoritarian of any British government in history, and (c) replaced the celebration and achievement of excellence with a mind-numbing, spirit-crushing bureaucratic love of the mediocre and average that has crushed the soul out of a once-proud Nation.
YOUR PEOPLE HAVE RUINED EVERYTHING. THEY ARE USELESS IDIOTS. LET IT GO, SUNDER. IT’S OVER. YOU FAILED.
Very good from ZNL’s point of view as it would make a bunch of people stay at home who would otherwise vote LD. LD’s are second to ZNL where I am for example. I was thinking Mandy might want to get this if he could manage it but I can’t see the long-term benefit from the LD’s point of view.
This only has to get wider coverage and support in the Lib Dems and they can kiss goodbye to holding most of their seats south of a line from the Humber to the Bristol Channel, as the Tories will monster them with it.
Mike’s right - it’s electoral poison for the Lib Dems as a viable party - but how vain are Cable and Cleggover?
39 It isn’t quite that simple, Simon, although I share your appreciation of the French approach. I’d also factor in French emphasis on family and meal times as opportunities for intra-family communication. A civilised approach to drinking is part of that, of course.
41 Tim, so tired so boring so unimaginative, if thats the only stick you can find to beat GO with. Get used to it Labour are DOOMED I tell ya DOOMED. Gordon has f*cked the economy good and proper and its absolutely right that he should pay the price for it.
46 - why does Cameron come across as a grown up though when laughing?
Male incontinence at Brown’s age sometimes means a prostate problem, and is not uncommon. His sex, demographic and age coupled with stress make a prostate problem quite likely.
If so, sympathy. Remember it is coming to a body called you one day.
On the other hand that is what did for Super Mac in the end.
by Witan January 29th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
LD-Labour Pact - Golden Brown?
I cannot see the LDs looking at the govt’s situation/predicament and thinking “I know I want a piece of that”.
Actually, I’d like to hear from Stodge on this one.
He’s the voice of Yellow Reason round these parts. I imagine he’d have some ‘choice words’ to say on this pact.
US STIMULUS PACKAGE
House Democrat who voted AGAINST:
Allen Boyd (D-FL)
Bobby Bright (D-AL)
Jim Cooper (D-TN)
Brad Ellsworth (D-IN)
Parker Griffith (D-AL)
Paul Kanjorski (D-PA)
Frank Kratovil (D-MD)
Walt Minnick (D-ID)
Collin Peterson (D-MN)
Heath Shuler (D-NC)
Gene Taylor (D-MS)
Notice any common denomenators? My favorite is Gene Taylor, he’s the guy who never votes for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. And keeps getting elected, is tremendously gifted at working up a good case of the red-asss and giving some cretin (for example, Bush appointees) a 1st class roasting in committee hearings.
As for the vote itself, ’tis all congressional kabuki. Because sure as God made little green apples, FUTURE vote in House will be somewhat different so fearlessly predict you’ll see more than one GOP member on the Yes side.
BUT would expect most of the guys on the list above to keep voting No. Because clearly their votes are not needed to pass the bill. And it would make more sense for them politically - and be of more benefit to Obama and House Democratic leadership - to stand pat on the No side of this particular issue.
Apparantly there are some nasty bits and pieces in the Obama bail out…
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/adrian_michaels/blog/2009/01/29/be_afraid_us_protectionist_stance_echoes_1930s_disaster
Well, this is a fun idea, isn’t it? Let’s go through the mechanics:
- Gordon learns that it’s not called The Liberal Party.
- He renounces a lifetime of Labour partisanship, and suggests a formal coalition.
- Clegg says, Yes, Brilliant idea!
- Alastair Darling and Harriet Harman are delighted.
- The front-benches have a cosy chat about policies. “ID cards? Splendid idea” “Join the Euro? Maybe now’s the time”
- Fraternal meeting of Labour and LibDems MPs and candidates to decide who stands aside in which seats. This takes a bit of time: “Please, I’ll stand aside.” “No, no, I insist, it’s your turn.”
- Nothing of course can be done without approval from the Party Conferences. Motions at the LibDem and Labour conferences are passed by acclamation, with only Mike Smithson and Dennis Skinner expressing any doubts.
- United under their charismatic leader Gordon Brown, the happy band of Labour and LibDem activists campaign hand in hand in key constituencies, dressed in their ‘Vote Yellow; Get Brown’ tee-shirts.
- The Conservatives win with a majority of 249 seats.
32.”Vote Yellow, Get Brown”
I am sure the Scottish Tories have still got a few posters along those lines lying around from the Scottish elections could be useful.
I agree with Mike though, and I don’t think that Clegg would touch this idea because it would appear to benefit Labour rather than the Libdems.
Just look at the back tracking from Tavish Scott and his buddies today after they managed to look like they were standing shoulder to shoulder with Labour in an attempt to stop the SNP budget being approved.
58 Nick Clegg called it the Liberal Party in his conference speech. You’d better tell him too.
58 - only 249?
37 Lembik’s a journalist now. Writes for the Daily Sport. No kidding. I could probably find a link but want to.
I’ve yet to see any LD responding to my points. If you are so against coalitions, how do you expect to operate under PR?
If Clegg doesn’t disown this project sharpish we shall know its a real possibility.
62 It would be cheeky to show interest in Lembik’s column.
62 “but don’t want to”. I think I’m facing up to the fact I might be a bit dyslexic.
59.*which* could be useful.
After all Clegg attacked the Tories not Labour at PMQs, didn’t he?
63 Liberal Party on suicide watch
Would’t it be much simpler to call an election right now? Then the whole country can have a say. A hung Parliament, a coalition of sorts. A massive single party victory, again the people say. A change of places for LibDums and Lab(ore, again a democratic result (and a tidy win for moi). Yup, an election now.
A Lib-Lab pact would be fatal for the Lib Dems, as Mike suggests. But nevertheless I could still see the Lib Dem leaders going for it…
…perhaps more likely after the GE though. Orange bookers plus Blairites as a new SDP, the Brussels candidate for government in 2014?
Embattled Honda Racing could be eligible to take advantage of the £2.3 billion support package for Britain’s ailing car industry announced this week.
The Brackley-based squad is currently fighting for survival following its Japanese manufacturer owner’s shock move to put it up for sale in early December, with the team needing to secure a new owner before March or face closure……
The package of measures announced by Lord Mandelson to Parliament includes guarantees to unlock loans of up to £1.3bn European Investment Bank and another £1bn of loans for investment in greener vehicle initiatives.
To qualify for government support applicants must show they have an annual turnover of £25m or more, can help towards reducing carbon emissions, deliver significant innovation, support jobs and is value of money to the taxpayer.
http://www.itv-f1.com/news_article.aspx?id=45032
57- From your article: “But now we have American lawmakers specifically enshrining trade barriers in new legislation. This comes after dire warnings against raising again the problems of the 1930s. If nothing else it is a sign of the US turning its back on the international co-operation that will be fundamental to efforts to end the global economic crisis. If the House of Representatives has its way, there will be a bar on spending funds on any infrastructure project “unless all of the iron and steel used in the project is produced in the United States”. The Senate, through which the legislation also needs to pass, is apparently cooking up some protectionist measures of its own. The talk has been about Obama needing to build bipartisan consensus because not one Republican in the House backed the bill. But I’m afraid it is the idiots in his own party that are a far greater concern.”
It is essential for the GOP to oppose this gargantuan bill because it contains so much that the Republicans will be able to hang on the necks of the Dems in 2010 and beyond, particularly if the economy does not recover as well or as quickly as people hope/expect. The eleven House Dems who voted “nay” will likely enjoy little comfort for their votes since, as we have seen in recent elections, the most moderate members of the disfavored party are usually the first to go simply because they must face the greatest number of voters who sympathize with the “other” party. I can’t blame them for trying, though.
69 Now now that would be too democratic. I am sure they know best!
It would literally destroy the Party.
Firstly if Clegg didn’t call a special conference to agree the deal then activists would requistion one. Being Philapdelphia lawyers these still make policy.I genuinely think clegg would need bodies guards. It would be like a KKK lynching.
Secondly even if conference agreed to it which it wouldn’t the party would split. Several hundred councillors would resign the whip, PPC resignations, LD council administratons collapsing through defections. they’d have to have extra interns at Cowley stret to reply to all the ltters with torn up membership cards in.
Thirdly several perhaps even quite a lot of LD MP’s just wouldn’t budge. You’d be back to Lloyd George and Asquith again. A rump liberal group on the opposition benches.
Fouthly it would bea utter,total and complete apocalypse for the party which would finish it nationally for 25 years. Charles Kennedy and Alistair Carmichael would fight the post election leadership election as they’d be the only two MP’s left.
NO,NO, Never ,Never.
Lord M will be PM fro the Lords with Ian Paisley as his depuy before this happens.
63. Bollocks. It’s not happening, all else is fantasy. Clegg’s rejected the idea of any pre-election deals time and again.
On Thread. The Great Leader would leap at any idea to keep in power. Clegg would also lap up a job as DPM, although methinks that Cable would be the stumbling block.
Kill the L/Dems stone dead as an indepentdant political party.
72 - I was listening to the BBC World Service this morning and the GOP interview was the horrendous Michele Bachmann.
Is she representative of the GOP?
If not why don’t they stick her in a box with no microphones?
Clegg, Clegg, Clegg - do it, do it, do it. Thirty times do it.
test
38…an interesting analysis Peter.i reckon,however,that if Denman runs it means that Black Apalachi will be 12lbs out of the handicap. of interest could be Notre Pere who could well get 10st. whether connections would run the horse,of course,i do not know!
DOW tumbling: down 214 pts.
relaced comment with altered word
41 Tim, so tired so boring so unimaginative, if thats the only stick you can find to beat GO with. Get used to it Labour are DOOMED I tell ya DOOMED. Gordon has stuffed the economy good and proper and its absolutely right that he should pay the price for it and that it should be firmly laid at his door..
11. SBS - spot on. If Labour are so totally desperate that they offer the Lib Dems half the cabinet seats and carte blanche to make policy for 15 months, then the Lib Dems might well take it - and then, having cut income taxes for the poorest, scrapped the third runway and ID cards, cancelled the replacement for Trident, and reformed the Lords, they can destroy Labour at the polls.
Katwala sounds desperate enough to give it a try.
MIKE I have two posts in moderation, I can see why the first might be but not the second
PR for the Lords, PR for local government, AV for the Commons, plus a couple of cabinet seats might do the trick…
AV would save a lot of LibDem seats…
Ah well, in the tradition of PB. £10 says no pre-election coalition, any takers?
83. Rod, assuming worst case scenario for both the Lib Dems and Labour - eg vote shares of 44:25:15 - what would you forecast for seat shares (a) under AV and (b) under STV with (mostly) five-member constituencies?
76- Bachmann is definitely one of the more vocal members of the GOP caucus. Both parties have their characters. The Republicans used to have “B-1″ Bob Dornan, who was a favorite of mine when he would give his stemwinder House floor speeches excoriating Bill Clinton in particular. The Dems have similar characters such as the acidic, potty-mouthed Pete Stark of California, the buffoonish Maxine Waters, the clown-minus-floppy-shoes Barney Frank, the tax-evasion-of-the-month club member Charlie Rangel, etc.
I’ve just released a pile of comments in moderation - so the numbering might appear odd
82- It would also make Martin’s job easier, since he could merge his two sites into one.
This feels like a distraction…
I am increasingly of the opinion that we could be on the brink of something unprecedented and catastrophic in the economy. We’ve never put a serious recession to the test in the era of mass instant media. Events feel like they’re accelerating. So whilst things are clearly “very serious” I am not sure we couldn’t see some weird herd like behavior establishing positive feedback loops that take things beyond that.
79 Good point, Graham. A lot of horses would of course be running out the handicap but it would certainly make sense to scrutinise those with 10st or thereabouts. Notre Pere would be of particular interest.
Latest news is that Paul Barber is opposed but expect the rumour mill to be in full swing for the next couple of months.
http://www.sporting-life.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/01/29/RACING_Denman.html
1) It would spell the end of the LibDems - don’t forget they are half Social Democrats who left Labour, and who were effectively annexed by Tony Blair.
2) The LibDems in any case will have less than 20 seats next time
3) It would also be the end of Labour.
4) After the next election, the more leftist LibDems will merge with the rump of the Labour Party, thus consigning the remaining Liberals to their position of 30 years ago.
89. “PR for the Lords, PR for local government, AV for the Commons, plus a couple of cabinet seats might do the trick…”
I know we’ve had this discussion before, but AV for the Commons would be a complete cul-de-sac for the Lib Dems. They need at least a nod towards proportionality, even if it doesn’t go very far (perhaps something along the lines of the AV Top-up system proposed by Roy Jenkins).
SeanT - So it was from Guido. Well I think we can assume it must be true then.
Right, chaps. Rifles at the ready: we’re going over the top!
The assumption is that Cameron has not yet ’sealed the deal’ with the electorate.
‘Golden’ Brown is dead and buried before the GE, victim of a palace coup - the idiot is the elecoral kiss of death; he’s got to go.
Jack ‘the knife’ Straw is PM.
Cable slots neatly into the Chancellorship as a respected figure.
Clegg might get an important post say home office (alas poor Jacqui, t’is the voters what will do for her).
The Lib/Dems are given prop/rep as the bribe
and
the Conservatives IMPLODE! after a 4th GE loss
94 LOL
I think this is probably one of the most outrageous justifications for the third runway I have yet seen. It seems to boil down to an argument htat it is an either/or choice, Heathrow or Nazi’s.
http://www.labourlist.org/heathrow_and_the_bnp
Another one off the Xmas Card List
The chief executive of the UK’s largest newspaper group, Trinity Mirror, has accused the Government of “strangling the press out of existence” by failing to call for media regulation to be relaxed in its Digital Britain report.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/4388362/Trinity-Mirror-chief-Sly-Bailey-slams-Digital-Britain-report.html
It shows the despair on the left at the prospect of the trough being yanked away from under their snouts.
102. “If the loss of 3,000 jobs in east London can produce a BNP council, imagine what would happen with the loss of 70,000. If there was a hung parliament, it wouldn’t be Ian Paisley we’d have to do a deal with; it’d be Nick Griffin and his mob. Think about it.”
The really troubling thing about that statement is it seems to imply Labour WOULD do a deal with the BNP if they ‘had’ to. Think about it.
96 PtP - Hey, what’s this? Are you resiling from your tip?
100 - I cannot imagine something that would be more guaranteed to unite the Conservatives than for Labour and the Lib Dems to seal a mephistophelian pact.
that is of course ‘electoral Kiss of Death’
and please pull holes in the scenario.
corporeal if this is so out of the question Clegg will, no doubt, make a point of responding to this article and say it is total nonsense and he would not consider a partnership with Labour before or after the next election.
He has not denied this yet only having made decidedly wishy washy statements.
So this is his opportunity to kill this sort of speculation stone dead.
He won’t though, will he?
107 mephistophelian pact? No-one has proposed a deal with the Tories.
102. What’s most alarming is the suggestion that Labour would rather do a deal with the BNP than with the Tories or Lib Dems.
The BNP policy on the economy is very old fashioned socialism.
11 Gordon would do absolutely ANYTHING to hang on to power.
111. Why does that surprise you? It doesn’t surprise me in the least. This is New Labour remember, not Keir Hardie’s lot.
106 Absolutely not, Richard. 20/1 is great value and I notice that’s going. Will soon be 16s and much shorter on the day. I’m just acknowledging that Notre Pere is another interesting suspect.
The point is that with Denman at an unrealistic 7s, there’s a fair bit of value knocking about elsewhere.
40. Peter, I agree BA is value. He could get in on a reasonable rate. The 20s is going in places…now 16 with Hills and several others. The power of PB!
The 7-1 on Denman is bonkers. He will carry top weight, there’s also chance he might not run, and he’s not been seen out yet.
115 I should add, Richard, that whenever I put a tip up here, I back it myself. n this case, I’ve had £100 ew - a fairly standard size punt for me.
I don’t think the public would accept this idea of LibDems having a say in the running of the country.
There is already enough criticism that Brown should have gone to the country after succeeding Blair. The LibDems came thrid in the last General Election, what democratic right would they have to leapfrog the Conservatives into a power sharing coalition?
If Brown felt he needed help then he should be asking for help form the Conservatives first and if he wasn’t prepared to do that and wanted a coalition with the LibDems then he should call an election on that basis, perhaps with the promise of a shortened term of Parliament, say 2-3 years, before the next election would be called, if the Coalition was elected to govern,.
Lucky Manchester
If the Libs are sensible they will have no part in helping to prop up loopy Browns government - Especially when he has a perfectly workable majority.
I suspect that the UK electorate would be instinctively suspicious of any pact that appears to be formed for the sole reason to dish the Tories. And i doubt the Lab/LibDem core is large enough to compensate.
118 - Quite. The whole purpose of national Govts is to suspend normal party politics. Not to exacerbate it!
116 Thanks Cheltboy.
Bonkers is the right word for the 7s. Think back to the Gold Cup. He was being caught by Kauto Star at the end, a horse which is known to struggle beyond 3m. Neptune Collonges, a genuine stayer (although not quite top class) was also catching.
I can’t see Denman getting 4m4f round Aintree.
91. Very hard to judge, except that under STV we would expect a broadly proportional outcome, with the LibDems getting on for 100 seats, even on 15% of the vote. I think your 16% for Others is a bit on the high side.
The AV case is harder to calculate, but at those extreme percentages the outcome would not be dissimilar to FPTP, with the Tories perhaps even winning a few extra seats, and the LibDems not doing more than a couple of seats better than under FPTP.
Were the LibDems a little higher, say 18%, and the Tory lead say under 10% then AV might save 10 LibDem seats, and start to handicap the Tories versus Labour…
Short answer - yes
That’s surely never Vince Cable.
45- The coalition was doomed to failure from its inception and abandoning it is the only sane thing the Canadian Liberals could do. You have to wonder how the Liberal masterminds came up with that one in the first place.
117 PtP - Only teasing. I was impressed BTW with the amount of research you put into this horse-racing malarkey, and grateful to you for sharing the results with us. It obviously takes many hours poring over form sheets and talking to your network of contacts. It sounds like hard work.
However, I was puzzled by one thing. Wouldn’t it be less trouble to earn an honest living?
95. Interesting suggestion. But surely there was mass media in the 1930s, in the US and in the UK? Big newspaper circulations, in particular, and papers came out more than once a day then too. There was also commercial radio in the US (only the BBC in UK I grant you). Also, at moments of high financial anxiety, watching news coming out on ticker tape (1930 equivalent of the internet for real time news) became a national pastime, according to J K Galbraith’s book on the Great Crash.
109. I doubt he will unless asked about it.
Here is an article which itself says the chances of it happening are “near-zero”. By saying it won’t happen he’d be agreeing with the article. All the rest is just wishful thinking by the Tories.
How many times does he have to say no pre-election deals before people get the message?
A lot it seems, perhaps not surprising since I suspect most of the talk is put around by the other two parties to stir up the story and force us to waste time denying it again rather than try and get our message across, and also on the Tories part to try and put it in the minds of the voters whether it’s true or not.
124,125.
You know, its weird.
But I must have missed all your posts about the war in Sri Lanka,the attacks on UN compounds,the civilian deaths,the absence of journalists the…
Have to go with the majority here - I just can’t see why the LDs want to prop up Gordon Brown, who is clearly sinking fast, it’s like jumping onto the Titanic after it’s hit the iceberg as morale officers.
The only way this would be plausible would be if Gordo offered end of ID cards, no third runway, scrapped Trident, full PR for Westminster, green taxes, end of council tax and full auditing of MPs expenses. If he did offer that, I’m not sure who would the first to stab him in the back, but Peter Mandelson would be there or thereabouts.
Post-election, if it’s a genuinely hung parliament, the discussion would be more serious, but I still judge that the Lib Dems would be better voting issue by issue as there are relatively few issues where they disagree with both parties (foreign policy mainly.) Allowing a minority Government limited headway would be the way to implement most of their manifesto.
130. “You know, its weird.”
You mean your own post?
Oh dear more bad news for old Gordo,
Gordon Brown’s Museum of British History rejected by… er… his own advisers
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2009/01/29/gordon_browns_museum_of_british_history_rejected_by_er_his_own_advisers
I am always surprised by the optimism of the Tories on this site that - should there be a LD/Lab coalition they would win by a landslide. Am not convinced. If an LD/Lab coalition involved an electoral pact, the Tories would have to get 50% to win. Am not convinced that would happen.
It’s too late for a Lib-Lab pact. If Brown had moved on to favourable Lib Dem territory in ‘07, such as ditching ID cards, 42 day detention and de-centralised government it might have worked. In fact, he did the opposite and went after ‘Brown Conservatives’ - a strategy with the fatal flaw that such people don’t exist. His flag-waving patriotism is anathema to the Lib Dems and he’s now so unpopular that it would be a disaster. Daft idea.
127 “Wouldn’t it be less trouble to earn an honest living? ”
Go wash your mouth out, Richard.
124 - surely AV would be the best system for the LDs as they would pick up lots of Labour & Tory 2nd preferences. Any seat where they came 2nd, they would be able to rely on votes from the third-placed party to leapfrog to first.
@134:
The net effect of any Lab/Lib pact would be to throw every Tory marginal south of the Humber into the blue column. It would be suicidal.
A discredited government gerrymandering the electoral system in the fifth year of a parliament? Using the Parliament Act to force through historic constitutional changes that were not in its manifesto? If Brown tries to avoid an election defeat that way he’ll get civil war instead.
Clegg needs to quash this little rumour immediately, even the slightest hint of ‘talks’ between senior LibDems and Brown would tarnish them in the eyes of the electorate which are set to punish the Government at the next Local/European/General election.
The next GE could be the LibDem’s defining moment between Opposition party status and oblivion; is it worth the risks?
I’ve argued here before about how unlikely any Lab or Con coalition with the Lib Dems is after the election. But one beforehand is off the scale. The internal rows would be totally absorbing and make the party unable to fight a successful election campaign. That and MPs leaving to the Tories and Greens.
Whatever the rights and wrongs of a post-election deal, a pre-election one has no advantages for the LDs.
It’s very Fabian (and SDP) to be proposing this sort of well-meaning drivel and they are hardly known for their wise analysis of electoral politics.
139- Brown proclamation: “After a comprehensive review of constituency boundaries by a secret parliamentary committee, the details of which must understandably remain confidential, there will henceforth be 649 new constituencies within the current boundaries of the current Bootle constituency, with one constituency for the remainder of the country.”
re 40 PtP I have. Thanks.
Hmm. It reminds me of when thet anonymous Minister of State resigned over Brown being leader. His issue wasn’t policy, it was that Brown was an electoral liability. Likewise this proposal is not based on pro-European similarities or a general leftwing approach to politics, it’s all about keeping out the Tories and keeping Brown as PM.
The Lib Dems would be insane to consider it, because it renders a party of dubious electoral value (they’re never going to form the next government, though there’s an off-chance of a coalition) utterly worthless.
And you’re right, Mike, that the Tories would be thrilled over this.
Not a pact as such, but I’ve never understood why Labour runs candidates in the South and Sout West, where it hasn’t got a chance. Surely it would preferable to withdraw them, leaving a run off between Tory and Libdem.
Most Labour voters would probably vote Libdem.
134. On the contrary, nearly every seat in England would become a 50-50 fight between Tories and the newly hatched Axis of Weevils. It would probably magnify the Labour to Tory swing even more.
137. Yes but if the LibDem first preference share dives, they will lose most of their second places….
As for relying on second preference, where they can sustain second place, there will not be 100% efficient transfer. The Scottish STV experience shows that only about 65% express a 2nd pref at all, and the BES studies show that a not insignificant number of Labour voters would give the Tories their 2nd pref, and vice versa.
In practice, AV would only alter the result in a small number of seats, about 20-30 out of 650….
A plausible rerun of the 2005 notional result under AV would give
Con 190
Lab 350
LibDem 82
Nats 7
Oth 3
NI 18
with Labour winning the following seats due to AV
Clwyd West
Ealing Central and Acton
Gillingham and Rainham
Hemel Hempstead
Kettering
Portsmouth North
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Reading East
Rugby
Shipley
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Somerset North East
Wirral West
Dundee East
and the LibDems
Bournemouth West
Chelmsford
Devon Central
Eastbourne
Guildford
Meon Valley
Solihull
Somerton and Frome
Wells
Weston-Super-Mare
Aberdeen South
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh South
Hampstead and Kilburn
Islington South and Finsbury
Watford
I’m cautious about forecasting AV outcomes based on large vote shifts from the 2005 result. Too many unknowns…
140. It hardly even counts as a rumour.
What makes me laugh is how Brown calls for opposition politicians to show unity in this time of crisis. The fact that he comes across as an entirely tribal politician and therefore looks pretty ridiculous saying this obviously hasn’t occured to him.
re 137 not if the third placed’s vote is less than the Tory majority.
Harking back to the Birmingham apostrophes. It seems a sensible move to me. As the LD councillor in charge said the Ordnance Survey dropped the apostrophes in the 1950s. Ever since I’ve moved here I’ve never put one in Kings Heath etc. Who’s to say whether it should be King’s Heath or Kings’ HEath, and it would take quite a bit of historical research to find out.
147 - Labour did win Wirral West
Jonathan @ 95 has a point.
We are rearranging the Titanic’s deckchairs, blithely assuming that the political fundamentals of the past 100 years are still in place. I don’t think they are, and Brown’s period of humungous delusional damage is only part of it. Unthinkable economic and political circs are coming at us fairly fast. What’s more, I believe Brown knows this and is petrified but dare not let on. Well, it would account for some of the rumours.
Amazingly large social bills, originally due for payment a very long way down the road will be called in much earlier than expected, especially if any major pension funds should actually fail. The grey generations will revolt in fury as they are beginning to do in Iceland. Then the ’students’ and the rest of the non-accidentally-uneducated/unintegrated class war conscripts will be marshalled by the hard left. But it will just be part of - let’s call it political climate change.
All our political parties will be altered internally and realigned externally. Current bets, if present company will pardon the expression, are already off. We just don’t see it yet.
I fear for a real surge of the BNP, the SWP and their EU counterparts, and on the streets, not in the polling booth. We know Cameron will have to face down serious union muscle but comparison with the 70s and 80s will be very short-lived. As they say in China, chaos is very much closer than you could possibly believe.
Still, you gotta larf, eh?
“It would be electoral suicide for the Lib Dems to do anything that supported the Brown government.”
Would it not also be electoral suicide, and alienate a large proportion of the membership, were the party to support a Cameron government, in the event of a hung Parliament?
When you consider how many Lib Dem seats were won on the basis of anti-Tory tactical voting… it’s easy to think so. Could it be that a hung Parliament is actually the worst outcome for the future of the Lib Dems?
What they’d prefer [possibly] would be a Tory government with a small majority (say 20ish), that could then be overturned by a Lib-Lab pact at the election following that one [2015?] All very convoluted, which just goes to show what a confused position the Lib Dems are in at the moment.
Bizarre plan…and yet Clegg does seem to always attack the tories at PMQs…
Hard to see Cable emerging with credibility if this happened given he just accused Brown of lying. Not going to happen surely.
O/T - think I may have been a bit OTT about apostrophes. Life is too short for that.
Apologie’s
152. What we’d like is a successful move to PR in the meantime. It has to be a part of any deal we sign, because otherwise we’re in some trouble for the reasons you suggest,
I cannot see the point of Katwala´s article, except to get the Fabians talked about (who are a lost cause anyway, since they have no influence), and to get the New Statesman talked about (another lost cause) and to get the Labour Party talked about (no further comment needed).
As was pointed out above, Labour already have a majority of seats in the House of Commons. They do not need Lib Dem votes there to carry their policies.
Apart from capturing the headlines, this seems to be a vain attempt to imply that there is Lib Dem support for Labour policies - and of course there isn´t.
The only way it could work, as pointed out above, is for Labour MPs effectively to support a Liberal Democrat Government, implementing Lib Dem policies (constitutional reform, the end of the authoriarian state, a fair tax policy, meaningful green policies etc).
Now, if Katwala had said that Labour is doomed (or even DOOMED, as some would have it) and that Labour voters ought to vote for Lib Dem candidates as the best hope of halting the Tory bandwaggon, that would also make sense; and indeed it would be a pratical proposition.
As it is, he is just demonstrating how clueless, sterile and pointless Labour and the Fabians are.
Evening all
My position on this, as an LD member, is exactly the same as Mike’s. I could no longer remain a member of or support the Party were we to join any kind of coalition with a Brown-led Labour party.
What happens in Scotland, as the likes of Easterross and Stuart Dickson so gleefully argue from their differing but commonly anti-LD perspectives, stays in Scotland as far as I’m concerned.
I think it’s important for the LDs to maximise votes and seats at the next GE since the party will need to be in a position to take advantage when the Cameron Government runs into trouble.
150. It’s notionally Tory now… I said using the notionals…
151 Well for one thing we’re going to have to learn to live within our means as a nation. That implies a reduction in public spending of around 100 million - or 15%. 15% is very tough for private companies to handle - but handle they do if needs must. For the public sector it is new territory. Binning all the quangoes, slashing welfare, all the admin non-jobs, maybe reneging on publoc sector pensions obligations, who knows. Cameron is going to inherit a complete disaster. There will be riots.
156. I have mostly the same views, with the caveat that AFTER a GE had Labour somehow come out as the largest party then I’d say it’d depend on what policies etc we could force out of them.
158
100 billion sadly!
@155:
The problem is, the Fabians are constitutionally incapable of admitting it’s all gone wrong.
Labour is perfect and beyond reproach, as a message, is a tough sell in this day and age.
156. A true coalition is something different than just the sum of its constituent parts…
Dizzy has a post on an ironic development!
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/01/personal-bankruptcy-specialists-go.html
158 When it comes to balancing the books, could Cameron consider getting rid of Trident? The General’s are mooting it - but only as a means to get funding elsewhere. But they are knocking down the case for it in the process.
Personally, I’d rather we had 2,000 more special forces, equipped to unleash mayhem anywhere in the world. Far more useful…
160 Whoops. Mea Culpa!
@159:
I think Vince’s line was a reasonably sound one, that of working with the largest party in the event of a hung parliament, on an issue-by-issue basis.
164 - Are we wanting to unleash mayhem anywhere in the world?
151 Just to clarify a point. I am not making a firm prediction. I just ask the question where this is going on the back of what feels like an accelerating crisis. I see a small but real possibility of something unprecedentedly awful happening. About as (un)likely as me getting 4 numbers in Saturday’s lottery, which itself feels uncomfortably high.
I doubt there would have been a run on Northern Rock without 24/7 rolling news and the internet. Govt is moving unarguably much slower than the economy and the media.
Re: Lembit
Indy - Pandora - 13/1/09
“Lembit takes it on the chin
Lembit Opik missed out in Nick Clegg’s recent reshuffle of the Liberal Democrat front bench, but the great man has accepted the snub with characteristic stoicism. “What with my constituency, media and speaking commitments, I’m actually too busy for anything like that at the moment,” he says. “Among other things, my newspaper column in the Daily Sport has been expanded to a full page. I hope Nick Clegg will understand. If I can find the time, I’ll give him a call at some stage.”
Sums up the man. Managed to get 25% for LD pres losing to Ros Scott with 75%. Now I voted for Scott and had never heard of her.
`
164
Personally, I’d rather we had 2,000 more special forces, equipped to unleash mayhem anywhere in the world.
Well it would make a change to Woking on a Saturday night!!
7 Oracle - you’re right, the Broadband by 2012 is fluff, an announcement made for headlines today but nothing solid. There’s not much time left.
MPs have gone home for the weekend. It’ll be February when they return for a shortish period, dominated by G20 stuff in March until they break for Easter Recess, probably immediately after a delayed Budget. They get back and its then scrutiny of the Budget and as its May concentration is on the June elections. Bad for Labour, lots of talk. Then its July and Summer Recess. September and Party Conferences. October and clearing final legislation of the session before Brown’s final Queen’s Speech & PBR in November. Run up to Christmas recess, back in January and the campaigning starts in earnest. Some progress on lightweight legislation before final Budget, Easter Recess and shortly after that Brown goes to Palace and asks Queen to dissolve Parliament.
This applies to suggestions of legislation for AV as well, its all too late. Any new announcements, any white papers are now all part of the election campaign because this Parliament is in its end days.
Things have got heated in the snows of Davos..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/davos/7859417.stm
164. Two thousand special forces won’t make Russia or China think twice. Moscow or Beijing flattened might. The only reason I’d scrap Trident is because we’ve got some better 4th generation bombs to replace it.
169, Lembit’s an arsehead. Like Hardeep Singh “You’re racist if you accuse me of owning rubbishy houses” Kohli (on QT tonight) Lembit was on an Apprentice special. He displayed all the leadership of a blind sheep in a wheelchair.
159. Of course the party does deals with all parties at a local level and has been in coalition with Labour in Scotland and Wales as well. However tose have been after the people have spoken at the ballot box and where no party has a majority thus making it a partnership of equals.
What this bonkers article suggests is joining
(a) a completely discredited government of 12 years standing
(b) which already has a comfortable working majority
(c) a year before elections when it’ll have time to deliver bugger all
(d) in a clear partisan attempt to shaft another party
(e) to help take responsibility for a horrific recesion not of the LD’s making but instead the other coalition partner
(f) in circumstances where we would have no influence but Labour has a majority of 63 anyway if we pulled the plug.
Quite simply the party would rupture. I’d guess a wedge depending upon how much of your life was invested in the party. 10% of MP’s leaving, 20% of councilors and perhaps 33% of members.
It simply won’t happen. Clegg would be hanged from a lamp post outside Cowley Street.
175 - “Clegg would be hanged from a lamp post outside Cowley Street.”
That would be an interesting political development!
175 - the vote yellow get brown will be a line the Tories will push - “left wing party” and that crap. Clegg must resist. And will.
167 Unleashing the SAS is a more potent threat to many troublesome regimes than their knowing we have Trident nuclear weapons (which they know we won’t use - or more to the point, which America won’t let us use). Were we really going to nuke Sierra Leone? Or Kabul?Argentina?
“The Congressional Budget Office says that only $26 billion of the stimulus money can be spent this year. And only a third of the total will be spent by the end of 2010. As Sowell points out: “…it’s like mailing a letter to the fire department to tell them that your house is on fire.””
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/stimulus-stimulating-politicians-power/
If the so-called stimulus proves to be just a bunch of pork largely unrelated to quickly jump-starting the economy, the GOP will have an enormous target to shoot at in 2010, demonstrating why it is so important for them to oppose the legislation.
If this happens then you can forget the big yellow taxi, the Lib-Dems will be going home on a small yellow unicycle. However if anybody thinks differently I’ll offer 4:1 against.
P.S. The link to the New Statesman article does not work.
164. I don’t think there is a point in us having a nuclear deterrent unless it is independent. Trident cannot be used without America support. It is pointless.
173 Britain is never going to nuke Moscow or Beijing with its “independent” nuclear deterrent. America just might - and America will always retain a nuclear capablility. What is more use to NATO - having 2,000 additional special forces - the best in the world, mind - to call on; or a nuclear-armed Britain?
Re 9
Tories benefit more from STV than Labour (who do better with FPTP). I think a Lib-Con government would have more appeal. Liberal vaues and a free market- Gladstonianism, or something which tones down the hang ‘em and flog ‘em chalk stripe High Tories.
178 - I hope if we do get a Tory Government, Cameron will exhibit the same courage as Blair did over Sierra Leone.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/may/26/tonyblair.foreignpolicy
Kredit Krunch yet to affect Rhubarb at Terminal 3, heathrow. Just had two large gin tonix and a tiny glass of red. 33quid. For 3 drinx. How long will people pay these prices?
178 Britain now has many medium range sub-launched cruise missiles and several subs capable of firing them. How expensive would it be to develop matching up existing warheads with existing (or extended) delivery systems compared to a full Trident replacement? Sure cruise missiles aren’t a 100% reliable way to deliver nukes and they couldn’t reach the middle of Siberia or western China - but Beijing or Moscow would be a short stroll from a sub within a few hundred KMof the coast and would be an unacceptable threat. There you are - a sensible policy. 99% of the strategic benefit of Trident for a fraction of the cost.
Gin and Tonic and nuclear weapons.
A cocktail only avaliable on pb.com
182 After the generals decided to keep the forces in barracks in Basra and the US forces had to come in to support Iraqis against the militias not everyone in the world believes “the best in the world” anymore.
US military isn’t impressed with the Brits anymore after Iraq.
183. They don’t benefit more under STV in Scotland, if by better you mean better than pure PR. They are not very “transfer-friendly.”
On the second pref figures given in this article we would expect Lab+LD to do a little better under STV than pure PR…
188 - I agree.
A shocking decision.
186. Getting a sub within a few hundred km is a lot harder than hiding one somewhere in the north Atlantic. If it was easy we’d not have Trident.
188 190 And the real shame is that the Yanks still, rightly, have a tremendously high opinion of the British soldier and our fighting capability if allowed to get on with it. It is the generals and political will that needs replacement.
Paul Waugh has more on Lord Taylor.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/01/the-revenge-of-wallace.html
191 Do you have any idea just how hard it is to detect a modern nuclear submarine, assess its intentions and destroy it?
Basra was typical Brown dithering over an Iraq withdrawl - he wouldn’t pull them out, because that may have looked like our role in the invasion he bankrolled was suspect; but wouldn’t have them doing a meaningful role while they were still there either. So they’ve been confined to barracks (at great expense to the UK taxpayer) whilst the local naughties kept their eye in with the odd mortar or missile lobbed in.
Our solidiers are still the best in the world, when given a politically supported mission - and the kit to do the job.
188. The fact is we are operating a different strategy to the US in Iraq now. Obama has said he wants to focus on Afghanistan. He must realise that the UK can only make an extra commitment there IF we reduce our presence in Iraq. Whatever Obama’s ‘reaching out’ foreign policy means, there have been some harsh words coming out of Washington about us recently. The sort I see as the usual bully boy tactics that they know tend to work pretty well on the spineless Brits. France, Germany and others wuldn’t put up with it. I don’t imagine Brown as being the one to stand up to them. tories tend to fawn over Washington and accept our innate inferiority (as a bunch of social democratic Europeans), so I would hold much hope if there is a regime change either.
178. I was thinking that the navy’s new Daring Class Destroyers look very nice but for one thing; that awful profile.
The giant mast that contains the all the Radar, laser and guidance systems, according to what I read, is a sitting target which is bound to be hit first. And if this bit of the ship is destroyed the rest is bloody usless. £1 billion! Yes!
All yesterday’s gains wiped off the DOW tonight.
Interestingly there is a discussion on this going on elsewhere some of the comments make interesting reading.
http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2009/01/29/could-a-labour-libdem-coalition-happen/
197. On a more general point, I’m not convinced our Defence spending is going on the right areas now. All those Eurofighters, what for? I’m sure they’d be great aircraft, but what the hell are we going to do with them? When do we ever use our fighters anyway. The Americans have enough of their own.
Seems to me better to give our ordinary soldiers better equipment on the ground.
192 Right now hundreds of young Brits are in combat in Helmand, thousands more near the frontlines. Tomorrow or the day after we’ll likely hear another has been killed. Do we see anything on our screens of whats being done? Do people know where Helmand is let alone Musa Qala or the other bases ot battles fought?
Anyone old enough to remember the Falklands remembers San Carlos, Goose Green, Bluff Cove & the Sir Galahad and Sir Tristram, the Sheffield, the Belgrano.
Afghanistan is an invisible war - perhaps deliberately.
I think this is VERY unlikely as I blogged here on 3rd Jan - http://richardwillisuk.wordpress.com/2009/01/03/a-lib-lab-pact-again
you start out with 2000 special forces but after defense cuts well…
Been there done that seen it all before.
Nuclear disarmament is just a stop on the line to minimal forces/disarmament - the New Zealand option.
Both Rasmussen and Gallup have Obama’s approval ratings descending from the high 60’s a week ago to the low 60’s today:
http://www.pollingreport.com/obama.htm
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history
I would expect him to stabilize in the high 50’s over the next month or so and then see a further dropoff by late spring or early summer if the economic picture worsens as expected and the shine of his image begins to gradually tarnish.
What on earth can Clegg be thinking? Is Clegg a Ld/Tory double agent? The reason I ask is he seems to do everything to maximise seat loss and do the worst possible thing in terms of Leadership at anytime. Clegg has admited that he cannot see the Tories NOT winning the next election! Being even more closly will mean only one thing - YELLOW TAXI TIME: The LD’s are D00M£D at the next election!
201, aye. The Ross Kemp series (second on soon I think) is one of the few things that’s made me wish I had Sky. I might see if there’s a DVD for the series, actually.
I think if Trident was abolished, we would just see an overall cut in defence spending.
On PtP’s Grand National tip. I’m on each way. Still 20/1 available at present.
Cheers Peter and good luck to us all!
Question Time could explode tonight if Gove is at his best. He has an open target with University admissions down for first time in seversl years.
197 Actually they have state of the art close-in self defence capability and can defend themselves well against air attack, including missiles. The gorilla in the corner is that they are air defence destoyers only. They have very, very limited ship to ship capability. Super to put in a fleet next to an aircraft carrier. Bit of a chocolate teapot close to shore.
209 - Well the rest of the panel would only set the world alight if you doused them in petrol and lit a match!
210. In other word’s a simple morter shell can penetrate all that supposed sophistication?
tim at 184 - yes, it’s water under the bridge now, but at the time the Conservatives strongly opposed the Sierra Leone intervention - they predicted it would be a quagmire for British troops.
208. I am on as well. Thanks PtP.
Afghanistan is invisible for three reasons.
1.General consensus among mainstream politicians and press that it was correct to go in
2.Media not particularly interested for reason 1.
3.Complex patchwork of different groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
212. Sounds like the Death Star.
I am surprised [as a Lib Dem activist] that you have given this piece of ignorant daftness the oxygen of publicity. No-one reads the Staggers any more, so without this post the article would have gone unnoticed.
216 That would be an interesting public works project.
194. Yes, and it is harder still if it is on the other side of the planet, and it is not a problem that will get easier.
A renewed Trident will be in operation until 2050. Where will China be by then? Or America for that matter?
We may get lucky, China becoming a democracy, America digging itself out of its current hole. But we may not.
Fingers crossed the Trident replacement will be the last nuclear deterrent we field, but I do not think now is the time to scrap Trident.
216.
195 Wasn’t denigrating our troops - the politicians yes (in MoD and General Staff). My sisters are in the British Legion and our village the Christmas before last sent parcels to the troops in Musa Qala and have since had great letters back (of course last Christmas the MoD couldn’t organise parcels!) - fantastic, brave young men (even if they do get drunk in Salisbury, cause trouble and borrow cars to go home- generally found weeks later undamaged with full petrol tanks).
Where will China be by then? Or America for that matter?
Probably they will be exactly where they are now.
The link to the NS from the article above on this page returns ‘404 - not found’! That about sums it up!
218, it’d create a lot of employment and leave behind a strong legacy of specialist hi-tech jobs.
Plus we could destroy France completely.
Is Sara venting her frustration?
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/01/29/alaska.volcano/index.html
Does anyone here think it is possible for Brown to recover some of the Labour grassroots by blaming Blair?
Not directly, of course, because it would make him look even more pathetic. But backdoor leaks of angry rows over whether light-touch regulation was better than high capital requirements? About whether a new top band of income tax would be a good idea?
224: Oh, yes yes please!
209. Isn’t fewer unsuitable people going to university good news?
224. Yep, we could even get Aquitaine and Normandy back.
By the way, looks like good news on the sensible options for addressing climate change front:
LED lighting breakthrough
I haven’t been following the field at all closely, but considering that lighting is a huge component of electricity usage and a sensible, low power replacement (not CFLs - poor light “quality” and higher power than LEDs, as well as quite a few other drawbacks) could save some staggeringly large amounts of energy usage. And be a lot cheaper to run for everyone.
P.S. Can someone get Microsoft to rename the “Restart Now” or “Restart Later” buttons that come up when an Automatic Update requires a reboot to “Restart Now” and “Restart in 10 minute just as you’ve got something running that doesn’t need your attendence so that I reboot in the middle of it and corrupt the files requiring you to redo an hours work have a nice day”?
224 More importantly, we could send Ed Balls to Alpha Centauri
227, sometimes I worry about how popular my penchant for implausible superweapons is with the politically engaged on this website.
But mostly I’m pleased
226, if credible it might work. But it wouldn’t be credible, because Brown was clearly not a Blair minion and the timing would make it rather obvious.
228. You may think that. I may think that. But the to the general public, egged on by the media and government, more means better.
212 I’m just saying that until we get the new carriers the type 45s haven’t got a role.
229 - Would we want them back?
…234 unless we park one off Calais and order some gunnery practice…
226. How could it be credible - the arguments were not about policy but personality!
Brown wanted to be PM when Blair was the more appropriate leader in situ. Labour will just have to stomach the fact that they are unpopular because they screwed up. That’s politics! They were all in agreement on taxation, military and foriegn affairs. Indeed didn’t a recent cabinet minute come to light about Brown critising the French for not going along with Iraq? So much for his uneasyness! 
213 - Sierra Leone tends to get ignored.
Lets hope Hague learnt some lessons.
236 - The Type 45 only has one 4.5inch gun… wouldn’t really do much damage!
239, yes but it’d only be attacking Frenchies. The only question is, would the CO be senior enough to accept the French surrender?
So much for Obama being a good thing if it sparks off a trade war between various trading blocks. Mind you it might be the China and India’s of this world that suffer the most as the UK has already suffered it’s main drivers of recent economic Growth collapse: Financial Services, construction and real estate! Some cynics may say the main sector has not collapsed yet! The State!
Thanks for all of the comments, and the enormous scepticism about this. My view is that this deal is perhaps less difficult for Labour to offer than for the LDs to accept. Of course, that would be for the LibDems to decide.
Two questions to Mike and other LDs who would reject this.
1. Are you against all coalition deals by the LDs, including in the event of a hung Parliament? In that case, what national political strategy does or should the party have, beyond having a presence in parliament and local government? What would be the point of eg Clegg’s stated objective of doubling his MPs in two elections - to over 100 - if it is not to try to use that presence in parliament to achieve pluralistic political reform?
(Would you eg oppose any deal with Labour at all, even for PR? Do LibDems think a coalition with Cameron is possible, and if so how does it handle electoral reform and Europe? I can imagine a supply and confidence deal in the event of the Tories being short of a majority, but I am not sure how much the LDs would get for that: at most, something like the cabinet committee post-97 with Labour?
2. On the electoral dangers here … I take the next LD election to be a primarily defensive one to hold current seats. Are you sure it would hurt them in their own seats for Labour to drop out of 30 or so LD-held constituencies where the Tories are second and have the seat on their top 200 list? (And this is after the LDs have secured some significant policy changes, in my scenario, and have a much higher national profile).
So I don’t see why I need the LD vote nationally to split heavily for Labour, since they aren’t asked that in an FPTP election. It would matter in an AV election. I see no problem with Labour and the LDs contesting 550 or close to 600 seats against each other in this scenario, and see no case for trying to construct a national electoral pact in every seat. I don’t have a fixed view about how/whether the LDs might also stand aside in a particular set of say a couple of dozen Lab-Tory marginals, partly for this psephological reason).
3. Now it might be that you think a very large slice of the LD vote nationally (including in LD seats?) would switch to the Tories. I doubt they would where there is an incumbent LibDem Mp with a good profile. Perhaps some think the Tories would easily win 48-50% of the votes and a clear majority against such a government. I don’t think that they would. I think it could raise the bar. Somebody else might be able to
PS: A clarification about the disclaimer which somebody mentioned.
It is simply part of the Fabian Society rules that we do not take collective views. And so everything the Fabian Society publishes says ‘Like all publications of the Fabian Society, this represents not the collective view of the Society but the views of the author. The responsibility of the Society is limited to approving its publications as worthy of consideration in the labour movement”.
It may surprise non-Fabians who take a caricatured view, but we have a very long-standing commitment to pluralism and open non-factional debates which involve all parts of the Labour Party. This enables us to platform different and contrasting views, and it applies to me as much as everybody else. While eg political reporters and commentators tend to know that, it is reiterated on an article like this to avoid that being misreported or misunderstood, or to have to correct somebody reporting that eg what I say must represent the views of those MPs, academics, etc who serve on our Executive Committee or who are members of the Society.
229. Bordeaux and Gascony yes - Normandy no thanks.
239. A pea shooter in fact. Really the Type 45 is a poorly designed and expensive anachronism. No roll untill they get Carriers to defend, and no carriers for years , if ever.
240. Do a repeat of that short war (rumour has it of 40 mins) against Zanzibar. Brit warship bombards the Sultan’s palace, then a senior officer went ashore with a bill for the ammunition. Cost effective conflict.
@232:
Can’t we spend the money on orbital strategic defense platforms, with solar powered UV attack lasers?
That would be ACES.
240 - Hmm, personally if you are going to send in a gunboat you might as well send something with a bit of punch and some proper 16 inch naval artillery. Really tear the place up a bit!
242. OMG, somebody serious tonight. Lol
245 - Yes well that was when Britain knew how to conduct itself!
Now this is something I would support but only for court fines not paid.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090127/od_nm/us_bailiffs;_ylt=A0WTUfW.H4JJBYAAQhPtiBIF
183
Rod, I don’t think pure PR would be good, full stop. Look at Israel. STV keeps the constituency link. Labour would be mad to get rid of FPTP. Surely the Tories are disadvantaged much more with FPTP? If Labour get level again, don’t they get a majority under most predictors?
Has anyone any idea what the foreign policy of a Tory Government is likely to be, particularly in situatons like Bosnia and Sierra Leone?
249. Here we go - I over-estimated, it was actually 38 minutes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A19142282
251 How long will the current Tory disadvantage survive in the coming Cameron administration? Ooooh..5 minutes before the Boundary Commission gets its marching orders I’d guess…
“Rod, I don’t think pure PR would be good, full stop. Look at Israel. ”
Oh lord, I really wish you hadn’t said that.
242: Sunder, just a note to say thank you for coming on and responding: food for thought even for those of us who still disagree!
246: I told people the other week that I won’t talk about my new contract ;);)
Hugo Chavez calls for Obama to return Guantanamo Bay to Cuba:
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE50S6WF20090129
“Now he should return Guantanamo and Guantanamo Bay to the Cubans because that is Cuban territory.”
245 I’ll dig out the details but there was a fantastic moment in the Opium Wars, where the thousands of Chinese troops were rallied round a massive flag before it all kicked off. With its first shot, a British warship snapped the flagpole!
Thanks to Sunder for coming to comment. For what it’s worth, I’d have few problems with the idea - the Lib-Lab coalition works well in Broxtowe most of the time, and everyone involved at the activist level is perfectly clear that we have more in common with each other than the Tories. Conversely it forces the Tories to attack us both in their election leaflets, which annoys LibDem voters and pushes them into my arms. The two parties fish in the same pool of votes and ideas (which is why we tend to get heated with each other when we’re not formally allied).
As for how the LibDems would feel, I wonder if it’s an issue where some MPs and some activists might part company - if you’re a LD MPs in a marginal seat, the idea of Labour stepping down in your favour is quite attractive; if you’re an activist fighting Labour in Sheffield, less so.
I’d give 10-1 against it happening, but not 100-1.
257: Obama will no doubt write to Chavez with thanks for giving him the excuse not to do so while avoiding further criticism - in case someone thought he (Obama) was taking him (Chavez) seriously
242 - It’s great to see someone come on here to defend their ideas, especially in such detail. I’m impressed that you have taken the time to do that.
The real problem with your thesis is that it is implicitly all about keeping the Tories out. But the story of British politics at the moment is all about whether or not the voters will keep faith with Labour. This will remain true whether Labour stand alone or the public is offered Labour with a tincture of orange. At present, the public seem to be turning their backs on Labour. Why would the Lib Dems board a sinking ship?
@255:
Why?
I’ve never met a single person who cares about such things, Israeli or otherwise, who doesn’t think that the Knesset’s electoral system isn’t idiotic.
253, take that, Johnny Foreigner!
256, I’d second that. Although I disagree with the idea, it is nice that we get people on here fairly often to speak for themselves.
242. How can I put this Sunder. You dont really care abvout the country, you dont actually much really care for Democracy, you really care about keeping Labour in and the Tories out.
It’s as transparent as my spit. Go to the public and respect their choice.
@262:
Er, who *does* think. Apologies for the double-neg.
259 - Those odds are somewhat surprising. I doubt that you will comment either way, but I wonder whether they are founded on gut instinct or information.
260- One fortuitous side effect of the Obama presidency should be that it will starve the Latin American far left, which has been on the ascendancy for many years, of a credible northern target for their demagoguery.
262: The Knesset system is essentially the same as the Danish system, I beleive, and it works well there - you get lots of parties to choose from, with fine shadings of opinion (e.g. you can vote pacifist pro-marketeer), grouped into stable broad coalitions, with a useful second vote to rearrange names on the list and override the party managers’ preferences. The problem in Israel seems to be that there are too many small special-interest parties who will sign up to any government for a while in exchange for their particular theme being addressed.
Not sure if Conway’s return to the news has been mentioned, by the way - a bit less of a case than the first time, by the look of it:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jan/29/derek-conway-fined
A good response. As an outsider to either the Lib Dems or Labour I do wonder though what the benefit of a pre-election deal would be to the Lib Dems in the present circumstances. I can see why the Fabians would be seeking to create the mythical broad progressive front, in fear that the failure of this Government would set that aside for many years but the policy differences between the Lib Dems and Labour look to me wider than any shared goals.
Henry IV said France was worth a mass, but is PR worth accepting Labour’s authoritarian policies and centralised target setting culture. How much are education and NHS policies shared.
Irrespective of that what’s the electoral benefit of choosing to ally with a party likely to lose, where such an alliance would drag your party down as well?
266: gut instinct.
243- Given the recent storms in Aquitaine, is Britain so interested in fallen trees and broken power lines?
Anyway, most of the countryside has already been bought farm by farm by retired British.
270 - Thanks for clarifying!
@269:
This is my problem with Sunder’s whizzo jape: the electoral mathematics are all wrong, offering huge downsides to the yellow peril, and virtually no upsides.
Setting aside Sunder’s failure to understand Lib Dems at all (treating them all as simpering soft-Labour cretins), there’s no way a betting man would risk the kind of downside on offer for so little return.
Has there been a single person on this thread, apart from Sunder, who thinks this scheme has legs?
273 He’s just shit stirring. Labour and their orks will grab at anything now to stave off the inevitable.
@268 (Nick Palmer MP)
Derek Conway is a disgrace. So too is this Tory peer who I think should have her whip withdrawn:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jan/28/conservative-peer-lady-cumberlege-finances
That doesn’t change the fact that the 4 Labour lords sold laws - for which they should be prosecuted.
@242 (Sunder Katwala)
It is a disgrace to say that you are willing to enter into a coalition with the Lib Dems, especially before an election. The lack of alternative politics and the suggestion that “they’re all the same” already drives the disaffected into the slimy slithers of the BNP.
At 200 above Frank Booth mentioned the Eurofighter. When was the last time a Royal Air Force pilot flying a RAF plane shot down an enemy aeroplane?
275 - “So too is this Tory peer who I think should have her whip withdrawn”
Reasons why this will not happen (in order of importance):
1. It will split the Lib Dems into three unequal halves. From my experience (intern, incognito) the party membership is more Labour than Conservative, but more neither than either. There are a good few grassrooters out there who would rip the party apart before allowing the party to couple on to the Brown locomotive. Nick Clegg knows this. Nick Clegg’s dog knows this.
2. Clegg and Brown are ideological nemeses. Big government, small government. Low taxes, high taxes. Local solutions, central solutions. Thirty women, one woman, possibly two women. Any coalition would either collapse immediately or splutter and stutter so dysfunctionally as to prove detrimental to both.
3. It would look horrible to the public. Brown already has a democratic deficit, but inviting the Lib Dems into government would generate irresistible public momentum for an election. ‘Vote Blair, get Brown’ most people can swallow; ‘Vote Kennedy, get Kennedy, then Campbell, then Clegg, then Brown’ might be pushing it.
4. What possible deal could be done? Clegg would want not only himself and Cable in the Cabinet, but possibly four or five more. And it’s difficult to see how any ‘government of all the talents’ could conceivably find room for Chris Huhne. The other possibility - PR - I consider impossible to implement without putting to a referendum. And the press would be dead against (”Do we really want to let the BNP/UKIP/Greens/Miss Great Britain into Parliament?”) Too much upheaval for a weak leader of a weak government.
5. It’s stupid.
277 - Well she does run “Cumberlege Connections” which I presume is an escort agency with an ermine and latex niche.
276. WWII?
@268:
The d’hondt method tends to favour larger parties against small special-interest ones, but only for suitably-sized threshholds. Set it too low, and you end up with the Knesset-style mess.
The threshhold for the Danish parliament is 2%, which is the same as the Knesset, although lower than I think is sensible (the 5% of Scotland/Wales/London and the 7% of Russia make more sense to me).
The fact that Denmark doesn’t see the same fracturing as the Knesset presumably has something to do with (a) Denmark using regional lists, against Israel’s national ones, and (b) the ability to re-order lists allows people to feel better about voting for the larger parties.
Or maybe it’s just a cultural thing in Israel, I dunno.
Either way, since Kadima and Likud both now support electoral reform for Israel, I expect we’ll see it.
270 Nick is it the same gut instinct as the Broxtowe canvas returns or slightly different?
280 - What do they want to reform it to?
276. You mean after the Falklands War? Hmmm … I can’t actually think of anything else. Not Gulf War One, nor any of Labour’s little wars. Actually was a it even the RAF during the Falklands, or was it the Royal Navy’s Fleet Arm Arm? OK I give up, when.
Thanks for yr friendly responses. I occasionally lurk on PB as it is a good source of political information and intelligence, but felt qualified to post on this one.
Nick’s judgement that it is a long-shot but not unthinkable is interesting. thank you for that.
On the democracy point, I hear that point. I do say this was better done in 2007 or indeed 1997. But my proposal is only that two centre-left parties who have differences, but more in common fundamentally, should get together and put forward a platform to seek a public mandate for wide-ranging political and electoral reform. There is no gerrymander. If this was done, you could vote for this, or that nice Mr Cameron’s progressive agenda.
I take the point that it is better and easier to do it from a position of political strength. I did propose the electoral reform and constitutional part of this at the height of the Brown bounce in September 2007, from thinking through how the electoral reform deadlock could be broken
http://fabians.org.uk/publications/extracts/call-for-lab-libdem-deal-on-alternative-vote
This is not a difficult argument for me to make because I am among the liberal and political reform minded part of the Labour party. For me, this would also be about the type of centre-left politics I would like to see in the Labour Party and the type of political reform I think is needed. I wrote about that in a review of David Marquand’s new Britain after 1918 book recently, and his ‘progressive dilemma’ book was a formative influence on me. http://fabians.org.uk/publications/extracts/marquand-britain-since-1918-katwala
Thanks for yr friendly responses. I occasionally lurk on PB as it is a good source of political information and intelligence, but felt qualified to post on this one.
Nick’s judgement that it is a long-shot but not unthinkable is interesting. thank you for that.
On the democracy point, I hear that point. I do say this was better done in 2007 or indeed 1997. But my proposal is only that two centre-left parties who have differences, but more in common fundamentally, should get together and put forward a platform to seek a public mandate for wide-ranging political and electoral reform. There is no gerrymander. If this was done, you could vote for this, or that nice Mr Cameron’s progressive agenda.
I take the point that it is better and easier to do it from a position of political strength. I did propose the electoral reform and constitutional part of this at the height of the Brown bounce in September 2007, from thinking through how the electoral reform deadlock could be broken
http://fabians.org.uk/publications/extracts/call-for-lab-libdem-deal-on-alternative-vote
This is not a difficult argument for me to make because I am among the liberal and political reform minded part of the Labour party. For me, this would also be about the type of centre-left politics I would like to see in the Labour Party and the type of political reform I think is needed. I wrote about that in a review of David Marquand’s new Britain after 1918 book recently, and his ‘progressive dilemma’ book was a formative influence on me. http://fabians.org.uk/publications/extracts/marquand-britain-since-1918-katwala
Thanks for yr friendly responses. I occasionally lurk on PB as it is a good source of political information and intelligence, but felt qualified to post on this one.
Nick’s judgement that it is a long-shot but not unthinkable is interesting. thank you for that.
On the democracy point, I hear that point. I do say this was better done in 2007 or indeed 1997. But my proposal is only that two centre-left parties who have differences, but more in common fundamentally, should get together and put forward a platform to seek a public mandate for wide-ranging political and electoral reform. There is no gerrymander. If this was done, you could vote for this, or that nice Mr Cameron’s progressive agenda.
I take the point that it is better and easier to do it from a position of political strength. I did propose the electoral reform and constitutional part of this at the height of the Brown bounce in September 2007, from thinking through how the electoral reform deadlock could be broken
http://fabians.org.uk/publications/extracts/call-for-lab-libdem-deal-on-alternative-vote
This is not a difficult argument for me to make because I am among the liberal and political reform minded part of the Labour party. For me, this would also be about the type of centre-left politics I would like to see in the Labour Party and the type of political reform I think is needed. I wrote about that in a review of David Marquand’s new Britain after 1918 book recently, and his ‘progressive dilemma’ book was a formative influence on me. http://fabians.org.uk/publications/extracts/marquand-britain-since-1918-katwala
Gordon’s not going to like this, he wants the US stimulus to save him
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/4389597/US-EU-trade-war-looms-as-Barack-Obama-bill-urges-Buy-American.html
Will Gordon Brown continue to claim Obama is following his example and vice versa with inclusion of protectionist measures in the stimulus package?
http://tinyurl.com/ajd3f8
The birth pangs of a new global order or is it a miscarriage?
276 Some detils here of dogfights in the Falklands, where RAF Harriers downed two Mirages and a Canberra.
The most recent dogfight kill is believed to be an Eritrean pilot who brought down an Ethiopian MIG in 2000. The Eritrean pilot was a woman!
287 snap!
@280:
The compromise position would be regional lists and a larger threshhold, I guess.
289 Link
http://tinyurl.com/cf5woc
287, 288 - Looks like they are returning to the attitude of hte Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act which some argue contributed ot the depression.
BBC 10pm had more stuff on the Lords scandal (nothing that exciting), but again toenails saying the police won’t be conducting an investigation (good to know all those leaks have stopped).
286 Problem is though that Labour, as it exists, rather than Labour as you would like it to be isn’t that attractive a partner, I would have thought from what I can gather of Lib Dem opinion, and wasn’t even in 2007.
It would surely have to transform considerably to make such a proposal work?
Yes its bad news all round, question is though will the US consumer play ball?
289 By “dogfight”, it means cannon fire, not missiles.
I see ITN has brought back the job-loss counter…. Spin on that, Gordon. They really are pissed off, aren’t they?
293 it does and as the rest of the world needs a US recovery sucking in imports to aid their recoveries is a bad sign.
298 - Noticed Sky are going with that on their ticker as well. Wonder if we will see it on the Beeb ticker?
Northern no-fly zone over Kurdish Iraq?
What…..The beeb doing a negative piece on the Euro, are they feeling ok?
299 - Absolutely and if the EU retaliates we are going to enter a very bad spiral with a downward pressure on growth.
302 - Yeah we live in strange times!
Give me strength.
Sunder Katwala @ 242 needs to realise that there are lots of centre-left, anti-Tory Lib Dems who simply cannot abide this wretched, reactionary government and think Brown more likely to do a deal with the Tories - because they agree on so much and vote together all too often already.
Tories and Labour here will agree how much they disagree with each other, but many of us Lib Dems can’t really tell you apart.
Just because “well-meaning” Labourites might think this argument (widely held in the Lib Dems) preposterous, doesn’t mean that we don’t hold it very strongly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/4387600/Brown-no-longer-trusted-to-find-a-way-through-crisis.html
The most striking finding of this month’s YouGov poll.
What Poll?
284. 285. 286> Coalition coalition coalition - now where have we heard that tactic before:)
Question Time will be the usual hard slog tonight as it’s from Scotland. I do wish they’d have regional opt outs as tonight it’ll mainly be about the Scottish Budget, something that only indirectly effects me at best. Brown has got off lightly in previous weeks.
307 - The poll Jeff randall refers to in his column, tories have an 11 point lead
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/4389648/Gordon-Brown-is-a-busted-flush—and-hes-taking-us-down-with-him.html
Harriet Harperson - from today’s Hansard:
“Today, the financial services ombudsperson—[HON. MEMBERS: “You can’t say that!”] Oh, yes I can; sorry, Mr. Speaker, it just slipped out.”
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmtoday/cmdebate/03.htm#hddr_1
293- No wonder, then, that the Democrats’ most reliable financial arm, the unions, are preparing to spend millions to browbeat a few Republican congressmen into voting for the stimulus:
“After a failed “charm offensive,” US President Barack Obama and his allies unleashed a hard-hitting campaign Thursday to break defiant Republicans’ thus-far united opposition to his economic stimulus plan. The strategy called for millions of labor union members to telephone Republicans from hard-hit states, coupled with an aggressive television advertising campaign targeting potentially vulnerable Republican senators.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090129/bs_afp/uspoliticsobamaeconomyhousevote
Are the Dems making all this effort because they need GOP votes to pass the plan? No, they don’t need the votes. So is it because they hope to share the credit for saving the economy with the GOP? Hardly. Rather, they hope to share the blame if its results turn out to be disappointing. The only question is whether GOP “moderates” will be duped into providing political cover for the Dems on this monstrosity laden with pork and goodies for unions, ACORN, and other Democratic special interests.
303 - Lets hope none supports the people at Immingham protesting against foreign workers either.
307. Odd - clear reference to poll but no voter intention figures in the article.
The coalition talk is totally premature. How can you reconncile two parties with quite different manifestos? One party weighed down with the responsibility of government, one party free of any requirement to think practically. How can it work, despite the tribal heritage we share?
274. Patrick. I thought that Orcs were spelled with a “c” not a “k”?
276/292. It was a Fleet Air Arm aircraft (No.801 sqn is Fleet Air Arm) that shot down the Mirage in the Falklands. The RAF did participate in the Falklands but only in ground attack roles. In Gulf War I they did fly CAPS in Tornado F3s, but didnt shoot anything down. They didnt participate in fighting in the Korean war, so I’d guess WW II.
310 That sort of touch shows just how out of touch with reality she is, she’ll be talking about personhole overs soon
I liked the comment on Guido site from Hansard record of Alan Duncan in the house today,
So who is going to win the parliamentary BAFTAs—the “Glumdog in Despair” in Downing street or the Basil Fawltys on the Back Benches shouting, “Don’t mention the recession”?
310 - I’m not really surprised.
316 Or - hard to credit - does she have a sense of humour?
279
WW2: RAF fighters were not actively involved in Korea, the FAA was, a Hawker Sea Fury shot down a Mig15, although there is now some doubt about that. RAF pilots did fly USAF Sabres during that conflict but no kills were reported.
In the Falklands war FAA pilots shot down Skyhawks/Mirages. The RAF did not report any kills in either of the Gulf Wars.
307. Bizzare. They haven’t included the headline voting intention numbers on that report?
313 Perhaps its a teaser for later?
Newsnight doing “Is the Eurozone unravelling?” feature.
320 So for sixty years, the role of the RAF fighter has been redundant?
315
The RAF did take part in the Korean War, Avro York transports and a flight of Sunderland flying boats, detached from RAF Seletar Singapore for air sea rescue.
313 & 321. Did Easteross say he had been questioned for YouGov Regional earlier today? I maybe putting 2+ 2= 5 but maybe it is a poll not released just yet but a primilimenry teaser for a headline?
316 - In some dystopian future if she ever got the Premiership you can imagine a bill to replace all instances of ‘man’ with person.
So words like mandatory would become persondatory and management would become personagement!!
Ho ho ho - just checked the date and realised it wasn’t 1 April.
Mike’s Lib Dem membership is safe for a few more years.
It says far more about the desparation of the left than anything about the Lib Dems.
325. Labour have a unique spin on defence Policy - the Jim Callaghen note about only having two days ammunition in circa 1978 says it all in my opinion. Labour cannot be trusted with defence!
Jeff Randall sticks the boot in HARD
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/4389648/Gordon-Brown-is-a-busted-flush—and-hes-taking-us-down-with-him.html
Wasnt Ian Gray suppsoed to be on QT?
Hardeep’s got a new turban.
435
The RAF hasn’t had a fighter since the Hunter, both the Lightning and the Tornado GR111 were interceptors. The Typhoon is classified as an air superiority/tactical fighter.
BBC: Odds 10-1 that Eurozone collapses
Had a post dissapear, for info on dogfights look here
http://www.acig.org/artman/publish/article_327.shtml
This link goes to a table of air combat kills by Indian AF, but all other areas of world covered by the site too
331. Labour must’ve come to their senses.
333 for 324
Ha ha - just found this on Youtube - Labour have done it again!
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=DWq5nxOWHW0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1
Perhaps the proponents of a Lab-LD pact would like to consider what would happen in Labour/LibDem battlegrounds?
What would be the reaction of LibDem MPs in constituencies such as Withington, Yardley, Chesterfield, Rochdale, Hornsey and Bristol West be? These LibDems need tactical voting from natural Conservatives in order to beat Labour. If a vote for the LibDems is regarded as a vote for Labour this tactical voting would stop immediately costing the LibDems these constituencies. The same effect would happen in LibDem targets such as Sheffield Central and Islington South and also in hundreds of council wards across the country.
Evening all, rather pathetic that for tonight’s Question Time, Labour can’t do any better than put up Charlie Falconer who has been out of Government for 2 year.
Separately news coming out of Holyrood tonight is the SNP and LibDems appear to have done a deal. Now that is the one coalition we havent discussed on this thread!!
Does anyone know why Iain ‘potential next First Minister LOL’ Gray has backed out of QT!?
On the RAF question, here’s one from out of left field! In the mid-1960’s Britain was involved in the “Indonesian Confrontation,” to prevent the Indonesian government infiltrating and annexing the Malaysian provinces of Sarawak and Sabah on Borneo. It was important to play down the scale of what was happening for political reasons and as a result a reported shoot down of an Indonesian C-130 on a paratroop drop mission by an RAF Javelin went unreported to avoid inflaming the situation. I read about this once somewhere before and was looking for a link but I can;t find one so maybe it’s just a rumour after all!
Charlie Faulkner is a fat old slug these days isnt he? Amazing how well you can feed on the public purse.
YouGov Con 43 Lab 32 LD 18 Daily telegraph {Reuters]
341. He was washing his hair:).
339. Withington, Yardley, Chesterfield, Rochdale, Hornsey and Bristol West.
Ironically those seats are the ones the LD’s will keep anyway! This is in contrast to Sheffield Hallam and Eastleigh that in a polarised election where the choice is Tory or Labour - they will go Tory!
Faulkner lying on the debt stats, again. Why oh why can’t another person on these programs pick him up on this!
344 Par for the course.
344. Lib Dems higher on Yougov than ICM? What the hell is going on with these pollsters?
345. About time.
355. Lib Dems up 2 Tories down 2.
342
Its a new one on me! Although the Javelin was an interesting aircraft, designed as a long range escort, (then it was decided that role was redundant) it was a bit of a misfit, was used as a night fighter, but the radar was poor.
QT talking about coalitions.
326 Martin, yes I was polled by YouGov but the survey doesn’t close until tomorrow.
Hardeep seems to be the Labour party spokesman tonight!
353. Not really, it’s the nice sounding ‘bi-partisanship’ stuff that comes up everytime. Dimbleby was right on saying “how can you have bipartisanship when they disagree”.
Hardeep way out of his depth on QT. Audience made up of a lot of stupid people.
354 He was sucking up to the LDs. Clearly no Tory.
Tonight, really does show you the political differences that exist between England and Scotland.
351. Last yougov had LDs on 14. Is this confirmed? 18 seems high for LDs on Yougov…
A 4.5 inch gun can do a lot of damage, the Type 45 is really only air defence but they can put on harpoons so will be just as effective as our frigates. The probelm with our frigates is that they are primarily anti submarine, the best in the world in that role. The problem is we could really do with at least ten cruisers with an effective long range anti surface ship mode along with a large battery of long range anti air missles. As long as we keep the current numbers of frigates and destroyers.
The YouGov poll also showed that the Conservatives had a seven point lead over Labour on economic competence.
344. scampi: YouGov Con 43 Lab 32 LD 18 Daily telegraph {Reuters]
This feels about right.
340 - quite - although I fear for Stuart Dickson’s mental health (well I do anyway) if the Nats end up in bed with the Lib Dems. But actually it is the logical place for them to be as they are both pro self determination, pro fiscal autonomy, anti-socialist, anti Conservative, centre-left in tune with the Scottish zeitgeist and other than three Parliamentary constituencies actually electorally don’t compete with each other - which tells its own story.
Patrick Harvie, conquerer of worlds, is on STV at the moment.
Apologies if this has already been posted but I think this is tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph / Yougov poll.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUKTRE50S79W20090129?rpc=401&
Con 43
Lab 32
LD 16
I haven’t confirmed so please can someone check?
And with that I’m off…..
344/351 Only a few days ago we were suffering with Poll withdrawal now a poll is posted and hardly any comment! Tories down 2, Lib Dems up 4 on last YouGov (IIRC)
Someone beat me to it I see!
Au revoir
354 Hardeep was playing the card of “things are tough and I find it disappointing that the other parties can’t rally round the Government and pull together in this difficult time…”. He wasn’t disappointed when Gordon was doing his own thing - and claiming the credit for Labour getting re-elected twice on the back of his magic-bean-based economy.
359. LD figure on youGov is 16 not 18
365. Alas, 16 seems more realistic than 18 for us.
Is it LDs 16 or 18?
I’ve been away for a couple of hours but I’ve just realised how stupid this really is. For either side it’s as stupid as the Tories deciding that they need to team up with the BNP. And that’s really stupid…
The LibDem on QT is Jo Swinson the MP for East Dunbartonshire. When she took the seat in 2005 she was briefly promoted to LibDem Shadow Sec of St for Scotland but quickly dumped because she is crap. Within 2 years of her becoming an MP the LibDems lost control of the council in her constituency including the Group Leader and 8 of his colleagues. they fell from 12 to 3 councillors and are now the smallest of the 4 main parties. The Labour party took the seat back at Holyrood from an Independent who had got elected on a similar platform to the man in Wyre Forest, local hospitals and all that.
Hers is the one constituency in Scotland Labour has a realistic chance of recapturing at the GE. This is the one constituency (notwithstanding 2 sets of boundary changes) which all 4 main parties have held since the 1970s.
Dimbers in typical “impartial” form! No no no you can’t speak anymore, but he can waffle for 10mins spouting half truths.
369 thought we were seeing beginning of a Cleggie Bounce
16 it seems.
Ah well, up is up at least. 14<16 (Even under Labour education I learnt that).
Blagojevich is toast: 59-0
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7859588.stm
362 - We agree on something.
Tories about 5-6 points ahead end of Nov
Now its 10-11.
I’ve got a horrible feeling that the Immingham story is the important one happening today.
371. Definetely 16%. They’re taking the last poll as the one at the start of the month which gave the Tories a 7 point lead so they’re claiming it’s a a case of Cameron stretching the lead.
374. He is impartial, he impartially likes the sound of his own voice.
377 - That was obvious
Conservatives down a little bit on the YouGov/Sunday Times poll, but all within the margin for error, so overall another very good poll for the Conservatives to end January!
Michael Gove coming to the defence of the BBC over the Gaza broadcast. Are we seeing a change in positions!!
383 love bombing the BBC.???
Lots of Gaza, no Sri Lanka ( so far)
What a shock.
Watching Questiontime right now from Fort William - now I was brought up just up the road from there in Speyside, I have yet to hear anyone with an accent from that area…
373. Ah, but your forgetting about the magical LibDem first-time incumbent boost of up to 10% !
I wonder hgow long really bad news takes to seep into public consciousness. Is it too early for all the negative press today?
319 MM “Or - hard to credit - does she have a sense of humour?”
You do Ms Harman a disservice. SRemember that this is the lady who, when pressed on her statement that she had no leadership ambitions, replied “When a woman says No, she means No.”
387. 3-5% if you care for accuracy.
Anything is the early to mid 40s is good news for the Tories. Labour still at 32 is rather mind boogling. Who are these people??!!??
Did I just hear Faulker say “We at the BBC are trying to show the pictures”?
357.Jonathan, this is deepest Libdem country, looks like they have got lots of *activists* in the audience?
From the seat projectors:
Baxter: Con maj 52
Wells: Con maj 52
Me: Con maj 70
The last time an RAF pilot in a RAF plane definitely shot down an enemy aeroplane was in 1945.
RAF pilots on secondment to the USAF did score in Korea but they were flying US aircraft. The Indonesian event mentioned by the watcher has never been admitted or confirmed and, as has been pointed out, it was the Fleet Air Arm, not the RAF, who took on the Argentinian Air Force in the Falklands.
378. To be honest Tim, I’ve always thought that there was a possibility that one day people in the West would get fed up with seeing their jobs shipped off to Asia or being replaced with immigrant labour and there would be a backlash against globalisation and an increase in support for fringe parties. While the economy was strong people were ambivalent because there was plenty of other work to go around but now in a downturn people are noticing things like this more.
Maybe these guys have a legitimate grievance, maybe the Italian workers are just better at the job, I don’t know! What I do know is that this is a worrying development and if similar disputes happen then we could see more social strife to go with the economic troubles.
The constituency is Lib Dem at Westminster and SNP at Holyrood!
346 Martin Day
The only way that Clegg can lose Hallam is by doing a pre-election deal with Labour.
Why don’t you apply to be Conservative candidate in Hallam, you couldn’t do any worse than the Hallam Conservatives.
At last!
Falconer: ‘So what would you do about the recession?’
Gove: ‘I’ll tell you what we would do. Labour got us into this mess. They didn’t fix the roof when the sun was shining.’ (rambles on for another 2-3 minutes… and by the close has told us nothing he or his party would do.)
This is 1997 all over again. Style over substance, no policies beyond telling the British public that Labour is bad. Cameron really is Tony Blair the second, and his colleagues are just delivering the same empty soundbites each day.
390. That’s an average. On occasion it’s been a lot higher. I said “up to”….
397.Sorry, are you expecting the SNP to oust Charles Kennedy, and are the Holyrood and Westminster boundaries identical?
Another friendly article for Gordon to read…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/4389648/Gordon-Brown-is-a-busted-flush—and-hes-taking-us-down-with-him.html
A damning indictment on our mentally ill prime minister.
Reuters don’t seem to be convinced by “equidistance”:
The poll, by market research company YouGov for the Daily Telegraph newspaper, showed the Conservatives with 43 percent support, Labour on 32 percent, and the centre-left Liberal Democrats on 16 percent.
What the hell, this week slum dog landlord, next week Will Young, then Monty Don!!! Why are these people on QT!
360 Dan, SNP and LibDems anti-socialist? Both claim to be centre-left parties and both are to the left of the current Labour Party.
As for your other comment about seats, in Holyrood: Argyll, Inverness, Gordon, Aberdeen South,Tweedale are all a dogfight between the LibDems and SNP and in 2007 the SNP took 2 of them.
I agree the parties share some policies like the Local Income Tax but what about the LibDem demand for tax cuts?
40 no Bryan Air, theyre just being sensible. Why give all your policies away to Gordo? That would be crazy.
Telegraph also has more on Laws For Sale
A precis of unconnected statements in article
Draft Bill doesn’t mention Smart Meters
Lord Truscott is retained by manufacturer of smart meters
Lord Truscott meets Malcolm Wicks, minister responsible
Wicks doesn’t recall discussing smart meters
Dept says smart meters not discussed
Bill Contains Smart Meters
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/4389589/Lords-fiasco-Lord-Truscotts-meetings-with-minister-and-officials.html
391.
People economical dependent upon an evergrowing state, public sector non-jobs, welfare layabouts and snouts in the trough consultants.
The ‘our family’s always been Labour, they’re the party of the working class’ crowd.
Champagne socialists.
405.I find it really annoying as well.
405 - Yoof appeal!
365 YouGov poll again very much within the expected bands.
My expectation is that the Conservative share will rise slightly, from the 42-44% region to the 46-48% region during 2009, as the economy worsens.
Con and Lab bang on the median for all 2009 polls; LD just above.
Christina, Fort William is represented by an SNP member at Holyrood and a Lib Dem at Westminster.
Problem with that sentence?
Gove is doing a good job
Wow, Darmy’s back, deployed right after the YouGov hits the wires. Coincidence?
411 - I can really see the yoof changing from MTV to QT just because the posh one from X-Factor is on or that bloke who does the gardens.
404. I thought the LD’s had positioned themselves to the left of Labour from about 1998 to 2008 - then suddenly tried to aliegn themselves more with the Tories, which will never work for the LD’s. They just have to accept that they will have a tremendous setback at the next election even after the rigged in favour LD poll predictors but them in 2/3 Yellow Taxi’s!
417 - Well quite!
386 Christina, I was wondering about that. Not a Lochaber accent within hearing so far. I am also disappointed that Nicola Sturgeon is the only Holyrood politician present and as for Charlie Falconer who is of course a Scot (and to my deep embarrasment a very distant cousin of mine) surely Labour could have put forward one of their 80+ MPs or MSPs. I dont know why we have Michael Gove instead of a Scots Tory but he is excellent on things like QT.
rigged in favour LD poll predictors but = rigged in favour of the LD’s poll predictors put
Ohhh, Dimbers trying to set up Clarke, very nifty response from Gove.
420, Easterross, believe it or not Michael Gove hails from Aberdeen.
Flat cap guy… oh dear
Finally a Lochaber manny
406 - well I’m thinking Westminster and there are only three - Gordon, Inverness and Argyll and the SNP are unlikely to win more than one (and that’s only an outside chance).
If you want to look for the cross over between SNP and Liberal votes then look at how Banff and Moray voted in the 50/60s, before the SNP started to bother. These seats, now regarded as Nat strongholds, are simply rural anti Tory strongholds (like Gordon or West Aberdeenshire and indeed some parts of Norfolk), the Tories only ever had them with big majorities when the Libs collapsed and the SNP hadn’t got going.
The difficulty for the Nats is that neither Malcolm Bruce or Danny Alexander are a Westminster equivalent of Rhona Kemp (and the SNP start from miles and miles back).
The SNP have no chance in the Borders where the Tories are likely to pick up Michael Moore’s seat (the only probable loss for ther Lib Dems north of the border).
As I commented on a previous thread - the bookies ought to open a book on the number of Westminster seats won in Scotland - because it is very difficult to see how the SNP get into double figures and the Lib Dems slip into single figures…
413. I reakon the general election result will be close to this. Lib’s probably up slightly, Lab probably down every so slightly, Tories around there. 42/31/18, something around there.
Strike me down slum lord millionaire just said something very very sensible on Lords Scandal!
423 Augustus, actually like Tony Blair he was born in Edinburgh and like Tony Blair’s father he was adopted, in his case by an Aberdeen couple aged 4 months.
As for Charlie F, like me he is a descendant of the Falconers of Hawkerton a very old Highland family.
414.No, you seem to have a problem with the fact that I suggested that area was strong Libdem country at Westminster!
415.James, I think he has been impressive tonight.
My row with the BBC.
More details tomorrow.
Malcolm
420.I had hoped that Annabel would be on tonight. But Michael Gove was brought up in Aberdeen, so he is a wee bit of a Scots Tory.
What did the bloke in the cap actually say? I lost him after a while!
434 - well I got the impression he had been sitting by a dog drinking beer all day!
426 Dan, glad we agree Michael Moore (who is a very decent chap) is probably toast. Sorry to tell you but all the intelligence I am picking up from the non-LibDem party activists in Inverness is that Danny Alexander is toast. Argyll will certainly be lost, Jo Swinson will be lucky to hang on and Sir Robert Smith likewise.
Jo Swinson - pretty face, pretty vacant.
Jo Swinson - pretty face, pretty vacant.
434 Labour are DOOMED the Lib Dems are DOOMED, Vote Conservative
426.”These seats, now regarded as Nat strongholds, are simply rural anti Tory strongholds (like Gordon or West Aberdeenshire and indeed some parts of Norfolk), the Tories only ever had them with big majorities when the Libs collapsed and the SNP hadn’t got going.”
Dan, I think you should do your homework on this.
439. What else!
436.Been warning about that for a while now Easterross, I know the area well because I was brought up there, also got relatives and friends who are very active in the SNP on the ground.
Christina is correct. Fort William is Kennedy HQ. He went to school with virtually everyone aged 45-54 in the area and his parents are both very well known and increibly well liked. The LibDem leader on Highland Council, Michael Foxley is a local councillor.
437 - indeed!
Hardeep Singh Kohli should have pointed out to him that it is a monstrosity that a group with the least support should ever be in a position to wield disproportionate power.
I have no idea, it was something about shaking his head at the Lords sleaze?
Woooo, Faulker just done a Micheal Winner, settle down dear!
What strike’s me about Sunder Katwala’s piece and the people behind the Liberal Conspiracy, is that they believe that there is a large element of common policy ground with New Labour. But the Labour party they are thinking of is dead. That was old Labour. It believed in things like our liberties, New Labour does not.
In the major depts of state there is just no reconciling the New Labour policies with the LDs.
Home Office = ID cards, 42 days…
Justice dept = prison reform, sentencing….
Foreign Office = sucking up to USA ….
Local Govt = Localism vs Centralism
Treasury = tax credits vs raising tax thresholds
Sunder is just mounting a last desperate attempt to keep New Labour in power but he overlooks that New Labour is a party that would be unrecognisable to Fabian traditions. What he should do is move the Fabians towards supporting the Lib Dems.
Just realised all 5 members of the panel are Scots even though Hardeep the one with the broadest accent is the arriviste
Well won’t be bothering with next week, with Hoon, May and Will Young!
448 - I hadn’t seen Hardeep Singh Kohli before, how is he famous?
436 - we’ll see. And I certainly hope there is a market so we can back our ‘intelligence’ with hard cash…
449 - No and Ed Davey who every time I see him looks like he has put on another stone!
405. In fairness iirc Will Young has a politics degree. So he probably knows more about it than several more conventional panelists.
Poor Darling, getting it in the neck for being sensible again and obviously getting overruled again,
Gordon Brown orders thousands of new council houses
Brown has the support of Margaret Beckett, the Housing Minister, in pushing through new regulations, according to government sources, but Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, is said to be resisting proposals that could add billions of pounds to public debt.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5614919.ece
447 LD policy is defined by distance from power nothing else, populist left wing postions - there’s not much more to it. It is not a surprise that they favour local govt.
450 he is a minor media celebrity in Scotland, famous for not actually doing anything of any great relevance, a bit in the Jonathon Ross, Russell Brand, Big Brother types mould.
453 - That is an extra reason not to tune in
Politics degree, head shake!
448 - He is a bit of a Beeb fav at the moment, seems to get his himself in lots of bits and pieces like One Show reports etc.
457 never mind thousands more council houses. Clearly the answer to all our recession and unemployment problems could be solved by fabricating tens of thousands more caravans and arranging for them all to have broadband internet reception.
451.Dan, the boundaries helped you recently, and I know exactly where the Libdems got their votes in Gordon, Aberdeen South and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. And you are going to be in trouble in some of those areas this time around.
And as for the jibe about anti Tory rural territory. Tosh.
457. I don’t know, I’d find it hilarious for a reality show pop star to turn up and wrongfoot a few MPs.
456 - Oh right. Can he be sent to the outer hebrides and chained to a rock and forgotten?
BNP poll 27% in Newcastle tonight Lib Dems win
420 - “I dont know why we have Michael Gove instead of a Scots Tory but he is excellent on things like QT.”
I’d like to unamsk Easterross as a Labour/SNP/LibDem/SSP/Green/Solidairy plant.
No one who comes out with the dim commments that he/she does could possibly be a Scottish Tory.
I hate to be morbid but do we know if any MPs are quite ill? Unless someone defects or resigns there will be nothing to get our teeth into before the Euro and English council elections in the summer. A 3-way marginal by-election in March or April would be interesting.
Oh goody we have a Labour stooge to tell us that the Lords scandal isn’t all that bad!
Oh what a start, those Times reporters they should be strung up for taking a tape recorder in. Classic smear / diversion tactics.
456 - I’ve got it.
You work in an Indian call centre that specialises in Scottish customers and you know some things about Scottish politics.
Newcastle-Fenham byelection
LD gain from Lab by 24 votes. LD won the ward in 2008 by 303 votes.
However the big winners of the night is BNP who jumped from 9 to 27% (200 votes away from LD-Lab)
Hackeny- Stoke Newington Central
Lab hold over Greens. Not much changes at first look
Lie lie lie alert, Winston saying that most Lords don’t take the expenses they are entitled to. A report last year found that that ~90% of Lords claimed ~90% of the time for ~90% of the full amount.
463 Tim, drat you have found out my secret. Right you lot I am off to bed. No doubt more jousting tomorrow on here.
467. If I had said that……..
What a disgrace Winston response is! I have just lost a huge amount of respect for somebody who is a fairly well thought of scientist.
My god Diane Abbot standing up for hereditaries…
467 Tim you say the nicest things. Clearly you are Harry Enfield after all.
470 - Before you go.
“Just realised all 5 members of the panel are Scots even though Hardeep the one with the broadest accent is the arriviste”
The guy’s from Glasgow.
What has your call centre got against Sikhs?
471 - but you didn’t.
Drat, Iain Gray wasn’t on QT after all so I could have watched.
475 Tim, he is first generation whereas the other 4 are Scots through and through.
I reckon Abbot will have a nice email waiting for her tomorrow, direct from the war room at 3am!
Marcia you didnt miss much
477 Do Scottish people regenerate?
re 280 wasn’t aware that there was any threshold in Scotland and Wales. Although with the size of the regions if you only get 5% then you’re hardly likely to win a seat anyway.
480 - Only at the second attempt see David Tennant!
476.Marcia, Falconer is always wheeled out to take the flak if there is trouble for the Labour troop at Holyrood.
LD gain from Lab in Redbridge-Valentines ward by-election
Jonathan we Scots are all closely interbred. Scratch the surface and you will find with the typical Scot the degrees of separation are about 2 not the 5 or 6 everyone talks about. Right now I am off to bed, I feel a pumpkin moment coming over me.
482 A time laird.
484 Labour slip from 1st to 3rd - behind the Tories.
485 Explains a lot.
But none of us are related to James Gordon Brown. His mother was impregnated by a visitor from the planet Zog
re 313 there was a voting intention question in the poll, and I definitely remember answering the one quoted in the Telegraph link.
From the Telegraph - their poll is still not up yet - just a mention in this artice - Goodnight all
‘Not any longer. The most striking finding of this month’s YouGov poll for The Daily Telegraph is that voters have lost what faith they possessed in Mr Brown’s abilities to resolve a mess to which many feel he has contributed.
It has been a consistent refrain of the Government’s that the economic crisis was largely caused by the American sub-prime mortgage shock; that other countries will fare just as badly, if not worse, than the UK; that this country is uniquely well placed to withstand the recession; and the Tories are offering a “do nothing” approach in marked contrast to the Government’s frenetic interventionism.
However, this is making little impression on voters. While one third of respondents do blame America’s banks principally and 64 per cent accept that there is a global economic downturn, they are not willing to let Mr Brown off the hook.
Almost one third think the Prime Minister bears much of the responsibility for allowing lending and borrowing get out of hand in the first place. Another 48 per cent thinks he must accept some culpability.
Whereas last autumn there was a feeling that Mr Brown, with his wealth of experience as Chancellor, was best placed to handle the crisis, faith in his capacity to do so has dwindled.
More than half now think he has handled the crisis badly and, most tellingly, the Conservatives are now trusted more to rescue the country. Last November Mr Brown had a lead of seven per cent on this measure; he now trails Mr Cameron by the same amount.
A succession of recent polls has confirmed that the so-called Brown bounce has now gone flat. Perhaps given the unremittingly gloomy economic news this is hardly surprising.
But more problematic for the Labour leader is the marked decline in public confidence in his ability to find a way through. Not only is he being blamed for getting us into the mess, fewer and fewer people think he can extricate us either.
Mr Brown managed to head off a party revolt against his leadership last autumn with his ’serious man for serious times’ speech. Growing evidence of public disenchantment is bound to infect the rest of the party as the recession deepens and more people lose their jobs.
One thing looks certain: on the basis of these figures and the trend they show, any prospect of a general election this year, which was always fanciful, has slipped from Labour’s grasp.
There is a glimmer of hope for Labour, however. While 56 per cent of respondents think they will get worse off in the coming 12 months, people are much more confident about their prospects for 2010 and beyond, giving Mr Brown an even greater incentive to hang on until the last possible moment in the hope that something, preferably the economy, will turn up.’
489 Too late for that mate. You’re cousins forever now.
Quentin Letts - “House of Lobbyists”
489- Oh no, another lawsuit against Mike brewing… The Zogians will never allow this libel to stand.
This would be the quivalent of throwing the party off a cliff
Andrew Neal seems to be saying “No more Boom and Bust” more than Cameron at the moment!
re 452 if you want to see the effects of putting a few pies away check here of Ian Thorpe
484. Andrea: LD gain from Lab in Redbridge-Valentines ward by-election
Dammit. Their candidate’s campaign leaflet (I saw it the other day but, typically, can’t find it now to link to) was appalling.
497 - link don’t work
329 Martin, in all fairness to the military planners of the 70’s/80’s a major war in Europe was expected to go fully nuclear after 2 days, which is why conventional weapons stocks were held so low. There really wasn’t much point having any more munitions that didn’t hold ‘canned sunshine’. They wouldn’t be needed.
499 its not a pretty sight - link not working is a good thing
re 499 How about this one
484. A victory for the people of Gaza, according to the more excitable Hebrews who post on here….
Extraordinarily encouraging results for the Lib Dems this evening. First they take one seat from Labour in Newcaste, then another one in Redbridge.
502 - Oh dear, shouldn’t have stopped swimming!
503. RodCrosby: according to the more excitable Hebrews who post on here….
I think that’s related to the Labour Fallacy.
504 So there is no need for the LibDems to consider being the junior party in Gordon’s Govt. then??
Poll:http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUKTRE50S79W20090129?rpc=401&
503 I’m not jewish and I thought it was disgusting.
poll. sorry
http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUKTRE50S79W20090129?rpc=401&
Still not directly on the Telegraph website, which is a little odd.
497, 505 - If my body was anything like his either before or after, I would be a very happy man.
459 - tosh?
Here’s how these seats voted in the 1960s…
March 1966
Banffshire
Conservative 8,139
Liberal 6,762
Labour 4,775
Moray & Nairn
Conservative 11,842
Labour 8,384
Liberal 4,368
Aberdeenshire East
Conservative 12,067
Liberal 8,034
Labour 6,422
SNP 2,584
Aberdeenshire West
Liberal 15,151
Conservative 13,956
Labour 6,008
October 1964
Banff
Conservative 9,995
Labour 5,574
Liberal 5,354
Moray & Nairn
Conservative 12,741
Labour 6,830
Liberal 5,478
Aberdeenshire East
Conservative 14,621
Liberal 7,088
Labour 6,840
SNP 1,925
Aberdeenshire West
Conservative 16,429
Liberal 11,754
Labour 7,203
509. The voters obviously thought otherwise….
514. RodCrosby: The voters obviously thought otherwise
Yes, and that’s why I’m so disappointed at the result. It’s like BG&B in 2005, and just goes to show that campaigning that exploits ethnic tensions works. Sad, but apparently true.
This latest YouGov poll confirms that the tory bounce has run out of steam and the party is, once again, on the decline.
People are angry and frustrated with the government because of the recession but they know that these new breed of pretend tories are not really the answer.
Out of curiousity, what do Lords actually have to do to claim their £300ish per day? Turn up, claim, leave?
@498:
Now, now. The Lib Dems have long known the power of anti-semitic dog whistles. It’s hardly a new discovery.
517 - As I understand they have to sign in and that is it. No receipts required for Lords expenses.
513. The SNP and Liberals were in a formal pact in the 1960s. It was the breakdown of this pact that was instrumental in the Liberals losing Ross & Cromarty in 1970 [to the Tories from third place]…
519: Why am I not surprised…..
@516:
Hate to disappoint you Gabs, but the Tory lead’s up 4pts from 7 to 11.
Ah, our resident comedian has turned up.
Between 1997 and 2002 this may have been a possibility.
Now, as Mike says, would be suicide.
Anti-Iraq LibDem voters would see it as a betrayal big scale.
Anti-Labour, right-verging LibDem voters would desert big style to the Tories.
Same goes for nat-verging, anti-Labour voters.
Result? LibDem disaster zone. Back to the 1940’s.
Mr Blagojevich impeached
522
According to UKPR, the last tory lead was 13 point (tories on 45%).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
526
…with YouGov
526 - You have to compare like with like - compare to the last YouGov for the Telegraph - not their most recent polls
Each paper must set differing criteria for their monthly poll - which explains the variations in the results even though they use the same organisation
518. Not sure if you can libel a political party, but you’re doing your best, aren’t you?
Why don’t you “take it up” with the three Jewish LibDem MPs?….
528 - Was just about to make the same point!
Could be a new YouGov version of the ICM polling difference between Sunday Telegraph ICM and midweek Guardian one? .
528, 530.
Really!
I think that breaks one of Mike’s golden rules (not sure which number).
528: He knows that.
You’re making the basic pb.com mistake of assuming Gabble has any interest in reality.
522/528/530.
Actually, dear Gabs is right on this point.
Still, as long as the change is well within the margin of error (which it is), he’s wrong to claim that the changes are significant.
Before this moll, the minimum-median-maximum ranges in the polls of 2009 were:
C 41-43-45
Lab 28-32-34
LD 14-15-17
They are now
C 41-43-45
Lab 28-32-34
LD 14-15.5-17
No significant change in the position.
526/527. The change on the YG/Sunday Times poll is within the margin for error. Whether its 45% or 43% its still an excellent position for the Tories to be in. Your clutching at straws if you think this poll is anything other than bad news for Labour.
s/moll/poll!
500 EdP @ 00:13
That is total tosh. The nuclear trip-wire nonsense had been abandoned long before Jim Callaghan became prime minister and found that the RAF had only sticks for two day’s operations.
Cacmeron 7% more trusted to rescue the economy than Brown. If that hardens further as the economic outlook continues to worsen then its goodnight vienna for Gabs and his leftie mates.
538 - Yeah it was painful watching Diane Abbot failing to come up with a credible scenario for a Labour victory and had to fall back on the old chestnut of the reliable dour Scottish Bank Manager who knows what he is doing even though things are tough. One is forced to ask would this be a reliable Scottish Bank Manager in the mould of Sir Fred Goodwin?
Here’s a story about Barack’s illegal immigrant auntie, including a picture of her. She’ll be having a deportation hearing on April 1. Her nephew seems to have washed his hands of her, apparently having done nothing for her either before or after his election as president.
http://www.newsnet5.com/news/18583248/detail.html
513.Dan, you would have to understand the housing booms in Aberdeen due to the Oil and Gas industry, and how that has effected prices and pushed many aspiring young people to settle in places like Inverurie, Kemney, Westhill, Kingseat and Portlethan to name but a few. These areas have exploded in size.
And the fact that they all surround Aberdeen, straddling the constituencies you mention will be lost on you. There are, and remain very strong pockets of Tory support in the *rural area’s*, and by those, I mean where there are fields, coos and hills and mountains rather than huge sprawling overspill housing estates in the Aberdeen commuter belt.
The whole face of the North East has changed considerable since the 70’s with the advent of the Oil industry. But the Libdems have a problem, many of these people may live in the surrounding constituencies, but they are still effected by the huge deficit racked up by the Aberdeen council.
Re: Minnesota Senate: Norm Coleman caught lying red-handed
http://minnesotaindependent.com/24761/disenfranchised-voters-crash-colemans-site-unlikely-says-blogger
This evening gets better and better for the Liberal Democrats. Apart from taking two seats off Labour (in Newcastle and Redbridge) they have also overcome a Labour challenge to a Lib Dem seat in Manchester.
The Conservatives did not win anything at all this evening.
LibDems hold Manchester Didsbury West with an increased majority
LibDem 1439 Lab 638 Con 336 Green 173
May 2008 LibDem 1283 Lab 620 Con 451 Green 281 UKIP 81
Another dismal Conservative performance in Manchester after yet another overhyped campaign .
Tonight’s byelections have just emphasised how soft the Conservative support expressed in opinion polls is .
542- And we know that’s the case because “Aaron Landry, an MN Publius blogger (and Franken fan)” tells us so. Riiiiiight…
Another great name to disappear from the High Street.
@542 (Stars and Stripes)
The technical information to reproduce the results is public.
481. There isn’t a 5% threshold in Scotland or Wales.
Ah, glad you’re here tonight Mark.
Yesterday afternoon, you wrote: I don’t see why the Conservatives would make any progress in a Scottish GE . Why vote for the SNP poodles when you can vote for the real thing ?
Others might say: “I don’t see why the Lib Dems would make any progress in a UK GE. Why vote for the Labour poodles when you can vote for the real thing?”
541 - I know all about Aberdeen - I lived there for 6 years during the 80s oil boom and bust.
Your point appears to be that local government decisions in the city (for which the SNP are also culpable) will lose the surrounding areas. The Trump planning application might have more effect, but it’s just been voted Grand Designs worst planning application of the year, so I imagine the minority Lib Dems will gain kudos from it.
Don’t presume you, Easterross and the over excitable Dickson are experts north of the border…
544 - I don’t think it shows that at all, you cannot possibly use the results from one ward by-election to make such a claim on polls that are seeking to measure national opinion. Local campaigns fought entirely in local contexts will produce results that are different to campaigns fought with a backdrop. In my area Conservatives picked up a seat that we wouldn’t ordinarily have won because of the European effect because we never won it prior to the Europeans and have never done so since.
Meanwhile, comparing tonight’s YouGov poll with the YouGov before last, as I like to do in an attempt to highlight potential outliers, gives Con +2, Lab -2, LD +1.
Seem to recall posters here predicting a further Tory advance after various dire economic figures? The by-elections are good for the LibDems, as B. Hart notes, but the actual vote figures are not bad for Labour either - generally held up well.
550.”Don’t presume you, Easterross and the over excitable Dickson are experts north of the border…”
Dan, that is a very childish and pathetic comment, but of the type I have to expect from you and your pal.
554.I have *come* to expect.
549 The LibDems are not Labour’s poodles in the UK , The Conservatives like to portray that scenario just as Labour like to say that we are the opposite .
551 Populus found a few months ago that 30% of Conservative support is soft and open to change , Conservatives on here cover up their ears whenever I mention this .
553. NPMP: Seem to recall posters here predicting a further Tory advance after various dire economic figures?
Well, let’s see. Assuming that there are no more polls this month, the min-median-max range for January:
C 41-43-45
Lab 28-32-34
LD 14-15.5-17
compares with that for December:
C 37-39-42
Lab 33-35-36
LD 11-15-19
So the Tories about 4 points better off than a month ago, Labour about 3 points worse.
Clearly the polls aren’t going to react immediately, but each poll that reinforces the trend (from a C lead of about 4 to a C lead of about 10) reduces the chance that the trend can be easily reversed without Events.
Oops, sorry 547 should be directed at 545.
Here is a slightly fuller explanation.
When you type a website address like http://‘politicalbetting.com/’ into your address bar, your computer looks up ‘what that actually means’ in a table that is updated very frequently.
See e.g. http://private.dnsstuff.com/tools/tracert.ch?ip=politicalbetting.com
to find out that the current address of PB is 87.106.214.196
This means you can still go to PB by typing 87.106.214.196 into your address bar.
The owner of a domain name (like Mike Smithson) can set this number to be anything they choose (modulo technicalities).
Some number combinations (like 1.1.1.1) go nowhere at all - try it!
Someone on Norm Coleman’s campaign set their website to redirect to 1.1.1.1 but you could still access their website by typing in the old DNS address directly - as I and countless others did - although by now they have caught the mistake and password protected the site.
As 1.1.1.1 does not belong to them (it belongs to no-one) they in fact, had no earthly way of checking how many visitors they received - so their claim that they were overwhelmed is a demonstrable lie.
556. Mark Senior: The LibDems are not Labour’s poodles in the UK
I’m sorry for the loud noise, PBers, but my bullsh!t detector is going off again.
553 True the Labour vote generally held up but only at the very low levels they achieved in 2006 in London and 2008 elsewhere .
554 - at least I don’t patronise you like you do ‘And the fact that they all surround Aberdeen, straddling the constituencies you mention will be lost on you.’
I think your problem is that your cosy SNP/Tory pact is too thin skinned to take factual criticism.
Ever been to Balmedie beach?
556 - I am not discounting that there would be a certain softness in the Conservative vote, when a party is moving from behind to in front I’d be frankly shocked if a chunk of their new support wasn’t liable to change. My point was that to assume that in one ward because a party has done badly you can draw any inferences about what it shows about national polls is simply not possible. If that election had been part of a full local election the result could have been different, against a Euro election different again, and against a General different again. The results in that by-election tell us very very little about the national picture.
556
If 30% of the Tory vote is soft and open to change,what is the equivalent figure for the Lib Dems 70%?
If you take out the protest votes,single issue votes e.g Iraq and tactical votes the Lib Dems aren’t left with much.
Meanwhile, startling news from Iceland:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/30/iceland-join-eu
564. Presumably even if a new Icelandic government was in favour of EU membership there would still have to be a referendum. Most irritating thing about that article - it describes Iceland as an ‘Arctic’ country when the entirety of the mainland is in fact outside the Arctic Circle!
555.Mark, time and again that has been wrong when it comes to politics in Scotland over the last 12 years. The examples are too many too mention.
Dan, time and again you come on here and post comments about Scottish politics and the Libdems situation which totally flies in the face of what Scottish posters of various political allegiances are seeing and experiencing on the ground.
And as for factual criticism, the fact that you pointed out that you had lived in Aberdeen in the 80’s meant that my comments about the demographics of the area hit a sore point. In fact, politics up here is as mobile as the population who inhabit the area.
The SNP only went into coalition with the Libdems back in 2007, and the deficit was there before then! The Tories have also shared power with them in the Council, but big brother, and the dominant party in local politics up here for years has been the Libdems.
And yes, I have enjoyed many wonderful days at Balmedie beach!
As I posted a few threads back, I am at a complete loss to understand what the hell your party is doing right now in Scotland. Their behaviour and strategy is bordering on the completely inept. You are in trouble, both in Aberdeen, and Aberdeenshire council right now. And your electoral fortunes seem to be inextricable linked to those of the Labour party throughout the UK. So what is happening in Scotland right now should be a serious wake up call for you.
And the initial turning down of the Trump plans was unpopular with the man and women on the street.
559. I’d certainly argue we’re not Labour’s poodles. Given our recent history of opposing them on just about every civil liberty law they’ve thrown out etc.
561. “I think your problem is that your cosy SNP/Tory pact is too thin skinned to take factual criticism.”
Dan, you’re behind the times, old chum. My party and yours seem to be veritably cosying up to each other this evening! Might not last, but while we’ve got the chance, let’s play the pipes of peace…
“We are the world, we are the children, we are the ones to make a brighter day so let’s start giving…”
566
Let Mark ‘get off’ on the odd insignificant council by-election result,afterall he’s not going to have much to get excited about after the Euros this year and the GE next year,he’ll be able to see first hand what soft and open to change is all about.
568.Good idea Red Meteor, just getting used to the fact that we are supposed to be in bed together politically.
Annabel and Alex are either flirting politically or fighting like an old married couple.
569.
@564:
It’s not that startling, in fact it seems obvious that they have no choice.
God knows how they plan to square the CFP and whaling circles.
Also, see:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7a/Tectonic_plates-fr.png
Not all of Iceland is in Europe, including Reykjavik. Are they eligible to join?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5614919.ece
The housebuilding idea is actually a good one in theory - it keeps builders going and invests in the future. Affordability is the elephant in the room. Unfortunately it won’t get to work in time to save him.
If only El Gord could have announced it, say, last June, then we might actually have new houses being built by now. If only he could release fully costed and funded proposals with specific land identified and targeted. Instead we have a leaked report in the Times with soundbites vaguely stating he’s going to tell local authorities to somehow compel independent housing associations to do something. If only he could somehow persuade the nationalized banks to lend the PFI portions of the housing associations. And if only we hadn’t wasted our money on the pointless VAT cut!!!
572.My memory is failing me, but there was a recent report which highlighted the terrible problems faced by these housing associations right now. The government are being a bit cute here, and they are simple attempting the same tactics they deployed towards bankers etc.
They are headline grabbing to try and shift blame again before the impact is really felt, with no substance to back it up
567. corporeal: I’d certainly argue we’re not Labour’s poodles. Given our recent history of opposing them on just about every civil liberty law they’ve thrown out etc.
The thing is, at the activist level, your party is dominated by the Senior wing, i.e. those people who are at least as anti-Tory as they are pro-Lib Dem.[*]
I don’t think there’s any doubt that the LD membership as a whole would prefer a Lab-LD coalition to a Con-LD coalition (assuming a situation where both Con+LD>325 and Lab+LD>325). I think Clegg understands this too, which is why he’s continually attacking the Tories at PMQs.
Certainly you can point to civil liberties - but if you do, I’m forced to point to your party’s despicable behaviour over Lisbon.
[*] Which leads to a scary thought - had he been born in the South-West of England, Gordon Brown would, without a doubt, be a Senior-wing Lib Dem.
572. wibbler: If only [Brown] could release fully costed and funded proposals with specific land identified and targeted.
“Fully costed” proposals?
This government’s approach to announcing a fully worked-out proposal is to develop an idea about a third as much as it needs, and then announce it three times.
576 comments and a YouGov poll to boot, yet no update thread…
Has the semi nocturnal proprietor called it a night?
I thought you Tories were supposed to be “love-bombing” us, LS
577. B/ Hart: I thought you Tories were supposed to be “love-bombing” us, LS
The Labour Fallacy.
576. SSC: 576 comments and a YouGov poll to boot, yet no update thread…
And amazingly still no article on the Telegraph website - surely they can’t be burying it?
More unethical behaviour in the Lords
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5614879.ece
580 didn’t offer to get laws changed for cash though did he?
581 - Lord Chadlingtom “had declared work for the private equity industry in the Register of Lords’ Interests but did not lodge a contract for this work with the House of Lords, as is required”
A smoking gun… without smoke or err, gun for that matter. Burn him I say etc, etc.
O/T With the number of posts on PB averaging around 1,200 on weekdays and rather less at weekends, I calculate that by the date of the party on 23 March, the total posts will have reached around 980,000 - 985,000, but were Gordon to resign before that date or call a GE, then of course all bets would be off!
@581 (Ted)
No. He didn’t - but it’s still dodgy. Here’s another example of our ermine lordships doing their finest work
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5614892.ece
I don’t like the idea of an elected second chamber. I think for a genuinely new HoL, peers should pass fall into a few categories, and pass some basic plausibility tests:
- professional experts: must have the highest indicators of esteem from independent professional bodies (e.g. Fellows of Royal Society for scientists at the minimum).
- business experts: must have made consistently successful long-term management decisions over the last 20 years at a minimum.
- judges
- faith leaders and other social leaders: suggested by the PM, must be confirmed by a supermajority in the HoC.
- ex-speakers of the house, ex-PMs, ex-Chancellors, ex-Foreign Secretaries, ex-Home Secretaries, ex-leaders of opposition for major parties are automatically allowed to become peers if they so choose.
- other MPs and appointments cannot be made by the PM unless confirmed by a Commons supermajority.
- a few at the Queen’s discretion.
There should definitely be far more of an emphasis on professionals and fewer backbenchers kicked upstairs.
Unfortunately all pipe dreams - which PM is going to give up his prerogative?
580 - This sounds very much like the whole Osborne donation thing. As reported in the story, he did declare it (I think always the most important part in these stories, did they or didn’t they), he got paid (rightly or wrongly) for doing some work, but didn’t complete all paperwork correctly by submitting a contract.
If this was the worst “corruption” that was going on (and I’m sure there are plenty of snouts in the trough from all parties) we wouldn’t really have a lot to be worried about. “Coaching” some people to speak in-front of a committee, hardly suggesting you are going to change the law is it!
Here we go again
Labour reported over £2,000 gift
alleged that Justice Secretary Jack Straw’s local constituency party received an impermissible £2,000 donation in 2005.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7859210.stm
Another year long report!!!!!
584. In a few decades’ time when we’ve adjusted to the concept of a fully elected second chamber, we’ll look back in amazement to think we could ever have considered ourselves a full democracy while one chamber of our two-chamber legislature was completely unelected. What other Western democracy finds itself in such a position? I can think of Canada, but not too many others.
@585 (Oracle)
It is not the most heinous transgression in the world, but a) the very practice of coaching for committees by practising legislators is a sleazy one in itself
@586 (Oracle)
If we lived in the Utopian Kingdom, all donations would have a detailed checklist of eligibility criteria which both the donator and donatee would have to sign and deposit in the register of interests; making false statements should be a criminal offence for both. This would force MPs and peers to check things far more scrupulously.
A New thread is on its way
@587 (Red Meteor)
If you were Lord May or Lady Manningham-Buller then you would never in your right mind stand for election to the Lords - and yet, such people are incredibly valuable there.
I am struggling to see how coaching is sleazy? The coach isn’t on the committee, he isn’t setting the questions or agenda?
Surely it is in the same category as as MP’s / Lords (who have no responsibility for making the law in a particular area) giving advice to companies about possible future changes and the likely impact. I especially think about past ministers who have served their allotted “time out” and then taken up directorships in the field in which they used to be a minister.
587.The saddest thing about this sleaze scandal, is the fact it overlooks the sterling work done by the majority of Lady’s and Lords in that house. I am not in favour of a second elected house, and for the simple reason that we have one already which has the duty to pass the laws presented by the party in government. The Lords is at its best when it is filled with experts from many fields who are able to scrutinise and correct that vital legislation.
@591 (Oracle)
I think it is damaging for a serving legislator to be or be seen to be complicit in helping clients who pay them to avoid scrutiny at Select Committees.
If they want to do so after they retire from the Commons or Lords then I have no problems provided they do not try to use their previous influence in any way.
But I agree that this isn’t a particularly major issue.
Anyway, am off to sleep. Goodnight!
The front page picture on the New Statesman alone is enough to devastate to shred the LibDem vote.
Lib Dems must hope it never reaches the wider public. I encourage Tory bloggers to give it as much publicity as they can.