Will “Clarke’s golden legacy” now become centre stage?
January 19th, 2009
Is Ken tasked with “bursting the Brown bubble”?
I was very taken by a comment from a ConHome contributor, Jono, that the real reason why Clarke has been brought back is not to handle Mandelson - but to challenge Brown. This was picked up by ChritstinaD.
Jono writes “..There is one pillar of the whole, painstakingly constructed edifice of the Brown myth that has always been vulnerable and that is the role of Ken Clarke in creating what was sustainable economic growth. He created the ‘Golden Legacy’ that Gordon, a lesser economist all round, has destroyed. It’s a powerful narrative..I think Clarke (no stranger to vanity himself, but a manager like Cameron knows that) is pissed off with Brown’s boasts and he’s been given the opportunity to stick it to the pretender.. I think Brown’s life just got a lot more difficult - not least because he’s about to be held a lot more accountable for his incompetence - by someone he looks up to (not through choice).”
In appearance after appearance since 1997 Ken has left little doubt that he feels particularly aggrieved about the way that his legacy has been diminished by Brown who has often appeared discomforted when Clarke has been allowed to put this point at PMQs. This is probably what Cameron’s move has been designed to exploit.
Clarke in full flow gets his point over very effectively and he’ll become the shadow minister that broadcasters will go to first. He promises to eclipse both Vince Cable and George Osborne.
One little bit of polling history that is not generally known is that in the 1997 general election campaign that the Tories (Clarke) won the argument on the economy over Labour ( Brown). As I have recounted here before Blair’s party held a comfortable lead on the economy right through until the election campaign started. It was during April 1997, after the formal campaign had begun, that Labour began to struggle on the “which party has the best party for the economy” question reaching, at one stage, a deficit of 6%.
In the final ICM survey for the Guardian, published on polling day, May 1st 1997, the Tories were still ahead - though it made no difference to the overall result.
If Clarke won the argument then how is he going to do in the much more fertile environment for the Tories of the next general election? In the general election betting my guess is that there will be a Clarke boost for the Tories.
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I’m not entering the stupid first post race
I believe the answer to your question, Mike is a reserved “yes”
As I predicted only slightly early a new thread has arrived!
From RBS statement this morning:
“Credit and market conditions in the fourth quarter of 2008 were particularly challenging and RBS estimates the Group will report for full year 2008 an attributable loss, before exceptional goodwill impairments, of between £7.0bn and £8.0bn.”…
“RBS estimates the Group will report break-even underlying financial performance after credit impairment losses, reflecting profitability across its retail and commercial business in the UK and elsewhere offset by losses in the Global Banking and Markets division (”GBM”).”
So RBS has lost all this money overseas.
Is any of the “let’s give the banks a couple of hundred billion and - fingers crossed, everyone, maybe this time it’ll do the trick” money going to come out of the bank boards’ paltry remuneration, by any chance. For example, the RBS board, gorged with greed to the last, who splurged bigtime on ABN Amro, after August 2007, when the Crunch first started to make itself felt with big shocks in the financial markets. Rather like Hitler saying “we’re heading for victory after Stalingrad” - sheer lunacy.
On another subject entirely, anyone who feels like I do that the destruction in Gaza has got more than just a tad out of hand and feels that the teenage refuseniks within Israel could do with some support can do so on http://www.december18th.org Yes, these young refuseniks do exist, despite some rigorous determination to ignore them by the mainstream media. Their case has not been overlooked, however, by big-hitting blogs in the States such as the Daily Kos and the Huffington Post. They are called The Shministim. Peace!
Well the outgoing Tory administration did leave the public finances in sound shape - as was pointed out to Brown at the time. He was reputed to have said: ‘Should I write them a fu*&ing thank you letter?’. What a charmer!
The bankrupt sorry mess that Brown leaves behind will take more than a generation to put right.
It’s an entirely fair and very valid comparison. Vote Labour = Bankrupt country every time.
Meanwhile over at Labourlist:
“UPDATE FROM THE FABIAN CONFERENCE”
Posted Saturday 20.44 with 14 (!) comments.
6 LabourList is stillborn and no amount of bottom smacking or oxygen will make it scream.
6. I did read that story, dangerous people.
Peter the Punter —
I did bet on Obama’s tie!
I just read your suggestion : http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/01/18/which-bookie-takes-zacs-bets/#comment-908768
And I do feel you are right on it!
I wanted to bet 333$ on “Any other” color than red and blue @ 6, but the maximum bet allowed by Ladbrokes was 88.50$…
Oh well! — a potential, and very plausible indeed, profit of CAD 442.50…
Thanks, Mista!
BTW. Can he wear WHITE? Paddy is offering @13… not enough to gamble 20$ on it… I would have took it @25…, I think.
There are two problems with this. First, the ‘golden legacy’ is not just disputed by Labour but IMO viewed with scepticism by much of the public - it’s all a bit hazy now but their general recollection is that Tory government was economically troubled, and their general cynicism about boasting politicians makes them think stuff about golden anything is certain to be overstated. I know this annoys Toies who are convinced that all would have been perfect if only they’d had a couple more years to show it, but let’s not argue the issue itself - I don’t think the perception is really saleable outside Tory ranks.
The more important problem is that it sets the argument in terms of ‘let’s go back to the good old days of the last Tory government, you can see now it was better than this lot’. The urge to be proven right is very strong among humans generally, especially politicians, but I don’t think Cameron wants to refight 1997. ‘It was a golden legacy!’ “No, remember 16% interest rates!” ‘No, that wasn’t 1997, it was 1994.” “Yes, but in 1996…” etc etc. - you can imagine the public exasperation. In fact it highlights a downside of having Clarke back - it diminishes the ‘fresh team’ image that Cameron has being trying to promote.
I still say - published in earlier threads - that bringing Ken Clarke back to the front bench is a risk for the Tories.
However that may be, the economic foundations of the country are falling about Labours ears this morning.
9 Morning Philippe!
I’ll have a word with Shadsy when the lazy hound gets out of bed. He may reduce the odds, but fours or better would still be good.
I reckon it will be purple.
Not white.
Darling floundering on Today prog.
10. Doth protest too much Nick. I’m sure those 22 million savers wouldn’t mind some higher interest rates at the moment. Anyway that’s beside the point which is Clarke has a knack of getting economics over to the general public in a way most politicians don’t. That’s the only thing that really counts, plus the charge of returning to the bad old days when we’re in a deep recession and heading for 3 million unemployed is a little fatuous.
Melanie Phillips in the Mail in a generalised attack on all politicians (”Is it not extraordinary, though, that both parties are shoring up their own weaknesses by bringing back re-treads who have left the political front-line on account of their failure, mendacity, treachery, ideological incompatibility or sleaze?”) says about Brown and Mandelson
“Mandelson’s presence has actually made Brown seem a much diminished figure.
Mandelson exudes confidence, makes (whether or not you agree with him) a masterful presentation of his case and seems in command of every situation.
Brown, by contrast, whose role appears to consist of making comments the interpretation of which defy the ingenuity of the human mind while he struts the world’s stage, looks more and more like the front man for the real Prime Minister, the lordly Mandelson.
Whether he’s selling off the Royal Mail, reading the Riot Act over getting credit moving to cash-strapped businesses or pushing the third runway at Heathrow, it is Mandelson who appears to be running Britain - yet he hasn’t even been elected to Parliament.”
That’s a useful seam for the Conservatives to mine.
11. It will be interesting to know what other changes Cameron will reveal today. I have had a private bet that Justine Greening will be promoted to front bench rank.
Red + Blue = Purple - What if it is a reddish or blueish purple? Has this been thought through?
14 Darling hasn’t got the foggiest idea what’s going on with the banks. He’s hosing another £90 billion of our money at the system using a scatter gun approach, and it sounds as if there has been NO due diligence carried out. They’re utterly clueless.
Nick - that was a sad effort. By any objective measure of national debt, debt to GDP, current account deficit, foreign currency reserves, etc the numbers in May 2010 will be quite disastrous vs May 1997. Please tell me you don’t think that is true.
I accept that in your appointed role as ork to Gordon’s Sauron you are obliged from time to time to advertise for Mordor - but that may not be compatible with retaining credibility.
16. Hope so, she’s the most capable female MP we have.
Darling getting hammered on Today, seems to have picked up his bosses stutter.
13. Darling cant quote figures. The Government are shovelling money into a bottomless pit.
PRINTING, PRINTING, PRINTING, PRINTING,
9 & 12 Philippe
He’ll have look at it for you but can’t promise anything. It’ been a popular bet. His exposure may be too high.
17 He wore a blue tie to yesterdays events - what if its a red & blue striped tie tomorrow?
Please tell me that the gibbering wreck stumbling with answers on the Nations finances on Radio 4 is not the Chancellor of the Exchequer?
God help us if he is.
WCWJW?
10. That’s pathetic Nick. Prepare to vacate Broxtow.
What Colour Would Jesus Wear?
10 Nick
My recollection is that the economy, at the time of the election, was sound enough for Clarke to be able to implement a pre-election giveaway budget, had he chosen to do so. He chose not to on the grounds that a) it was wrong and b) it wouldn’t work anyway.
I thnk he was right on both counts.
You can see why people like the guy.
“what if its a red & blue striped tie tomorrow”?
We win?
Tieless in Gaza?
22 The banks being bailed out should be broken up, and divisions dealing in high risk investment separated from savings, retail and commercial banking. The taxpayers money would appear to be lost in the bottomless pit marked ‘derivatives and foreign loan losses’. Oligarchs are rubbing their hands with glee as their debts are cleared by HMG.
Nick @ 10. I think that you are right about the public view of boasting politicians but that the worst offender is Gordon. Has there ever been a leader so prepared to take undeserved credit but not prepared to take deserved blame?
The art is to boast without appearing that you are boasting and this presents a massive challenge for somebody who is as ill at ease with the English language and using words as Brown.
It is so much better to be given credit that to try to take it.
“Has there ever been a leader so prepared to take undeserved credit but not prepared to take deserved blame?”
His immediate predecessor jumps to mind…
Bringing Ken Clarke back to the Shadow Cabinet is a huge risk. I would hope that David Cameron’s team have taken into account all of the potential pitfalls - the most serious being the BBC and their Labour allies bringing up “Tory splits” over the EU at every opportunity. Even now wonks and their BBC contacts will be working out the best angles of attack. The Conservatives have a 14% lead in one of the latest opinion polls and a around 10% elsewhere. Will this decision really boost Conservative fortunes by that much or will it really open up fissures within the Conservative party? I would hope for the former but there must be a 30% chance of the latter and that seems a big risk to me.
Meanwhile the UK economy continues to tank and Alistair Darling’s stuttering performance on the Today programme this morning was one of the worst I have heard for a while.
Very interesting post by Ken, yesterday. Extract:
Yes, we are going to have yet another bailout. It will be as large as the last one. Judging by the leaks, it appears it will either be a insurance of bad debts or a bad bank scheme. Both are similar - the government taking responsibility for future losses. […|
The problem for the banking sector and the government is that the scale of the losses is such that it has destroyed all the banks’ capital. The banks definitely dont want to engage in any more lending especially to marginal businesses and with the economy projected to shrink 2.5%-3% this year, lots of businesses are marginal.
I suspect that banks would be willing to lend to people wanting to buy houses - but only if they have lots of equity and most people will want to avoid taking on extra risk. I suspect that the mortgage market is slow because there is no good quality demand. (People in secure jobs with 40%+ equity).
…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/01/18/which-bookie-takes-zacs-bets/#comment-908822
To expand on my point in #34. In some moods, I think that all NuLab is about is exploiting Tory economic success to shovel other people’s money at their supporters, while simultaneously using every excuse to tighten regulations and restrictions on everybody else. Now that the economy is in ruins, their electoral success will hopefully vanish.
Darling is hopeless. His performance this morning was an unmitigated disaster, as has been his governments handling of this financial crisis. No confidence in himself or in what he’s doing. Truly terrible situation we are in now.
The Market is opening higher this morning; I bet that it start’s falling again after listening to darling this morning, and after the euphoria of Obamas inauguration fades.
I wonder if the Brown/Darling vs Cameron/Osborne questions could be adjusted to add Mandelson and Clarke to the ticket. Might be interesting if it were.
38 Browns in increasingly deep political trouble, and Darling’s a desperate and weak man - the banks know it, and they’re riding roughshod over them with threats of systemic banking collapse if HMG doesn’t write them a blank cheque with no questions asked. Truly pathetic.
The problem for any government now is that this Labour government has deliberately grown the unproductive economy over the last decade and more. Therefore as the economy overall shrinks that issue will get worse and the fear is that it will act as a sheet anchor on the future recovery of the economy.
Pretty obvious conclusion but sums it all up rather nicely, I thought!
http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_29357.shtml
——————–
No matter how much politicians spin truth, reality has the nasty habit of biting you in the butt!
41 agreed - desperate stuff.
The Impact of the Crowd on Obama’s Speech Length
–> “23 minutes or more” is a fantastic bet (even @ 1.83) –> for the CROWD will be as frantically euphoric as a tribe witnessing a solar eclipse.
The crowd, I’m betting (I fired 200$ on it), will cheer so loudly, so forcefully, — and repetitively! — that the speech will get way longer than anything we are used to, as an effect.
Haven’t posted for a few days as been taking stock of the latest polls and the Wells correlation analysis seeming to work thus far.
NP@10 is one of the more desperate straw-clutching posts I can recall.
Who is joe punter likely to be more encouraged to see the return of - Mandy or Ken from the old’un days. Both have their risks and could blow up in their respective leader’s faces but as someone who liked Ken Clarke but not the Tories in the late 90’s and 2000’s, I’m chuffed to see him back.
He is a ‘real’ person, warts and all and not some manufactured robotnic party-line toady. Welcome back Ken!
He’s worth 1% or more to the Tories and probably a lot more in the Midlands battle-ground.
Incidentally even little Nicky Campbell made our Chancellor sound enfeebled, muddled, desperate and unclear on R5 just now.
45 Less is more in public speaking, and I think Obama will go for a shortish speech outlining the difficulties but with a few carefully crafted soundbites of hope and sacrifice. Its going to be cold, he’ll be speaking at multiple events before and after, so it’s about memorable content and that works better in a shorter speech.
Polling news
Mori has just told me that their January monitor should be out on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Nick Palmer MP @ 10 is right. Many voters do not have fond memories of Ken Clarke’s time in government, and certainly will not isolate the bit at the end from all the rest.
Ken’s first line of attack should be Lord Mandelson’s failed attempts to bring credit card interest rates down. It will resonate with the public, is “caring” (since the less well off are more likely to have credit cards than mortgages), and shows up Mandelson as an ineffectual numpty.
Poor Badger. His nerves must be shot from getting phone-battered by McBean on a daily basis.
Re 10 again - sorry but that post does show the slipperiness of our elected reps.
Has Ken’s comeback meant the ‘no time for a novice’ stap-line been killed and hence the new spin is to go with a lack of ‘freshness’ from the Tories….
What a dirty business.
A return for Ken Clarke, surely Redwood will defect to UKIP now!
This of course is a vote of confidence in George Osborne, apparently Osborne agreed to this over dinner. Amazing what having your head pushed into the soup will make you agree to.
Wonder how dear ‘ol Simon Heffer will take this.
Spicer for chancellor, thats what I say.!
Nick - do you therefore disagree over the importance of the polling Mike is referring to? Presumably you are saying that, although during the heat of the 1997 campaign the public thought the Tories were better at handling the economy, when this fades away over time all the public remembers is 1992 / 1993?
I suppose there is a grain of truth to this. However I think it could be countered by the fact that, of all the people who can make that line “work”, it is going to be Ken Clarke, the Great Empathiser. Clarke’s personality is upbeat and “happy”, and I think people associate him with slightly more buoyant times. Whilst I agree that without him on the front bench, trying to claim such credit would be difficult, his return changes all that and allows people to put names to faces.
With regards the other aspect, that of “newness”, I think you are being rather too seduced by the Blairite tide that aided you into parliament. Because the public are not quite as obsessed with the new as you think, and especially in such times a steady, trusted hand can bring benefits. Essentially your argument rests on Clarke being seen as part of the Old Government, but again if there is one person who escapes such labelling, it is Clarke. Redwood, no; Howard, no; even Rifkind was more associated. But Clarke is just Clarke, a timeless maverick who knows no shackles and escapes the definitios. The only thing the public will really know is that they like him. This was his greatest asset as a candidate for leadership and, if used well, could be the final piece in this story.
A Good Bet?
We can bet on Paddy that Obama will say “A new direction” @ 40/1.
Is it not amazing? I’m very tempted…
whoops
sorry Spencer.
Darling’s effort this morning was one of the most hopeless I have ever heard. After days of spinning about how the Treasury was working round the clock with the banks to construct a new package we discover that on the most important part, the loss insurance scheme, we have an announcement but no details - including, crucially, no details about its size. Apparently the government will have to ‘go back to the banks’ before working this out.
Who is this sort of bag of a fag packet stuff supposed to impress? The markets? get real. The voters? How stupid does Labour think they are?
It’s time for a change of management. Labour are a joke.
55 — Ohoh! It’s not good, for it applies only “to the first exact phrase below”, — which are many…
53 - Hague & Clarke to Osborne and Cameron.
OK posh lads, you can keep Gideon on three conditions.
1.We keep our outside jobs.
2.William becomes Deputy.
3.Ken does the big economic announcements.
32. EdP. So the banks should be broken up. Possibly. But, the bad debts dont disappear because we break up the bank. The Oligarchs are not going to pay. So the money is gone. The public money being shovelled in by the taxpayer is not going to the Oligarch, it’s going to the depositors who put their money in the bank.
As it happens, I believe that we should have put in place a proper administration procesure for banks to reflect their unique structure and role in the economy - regular administration is messy and bad (as Lehman demonstrated). At the moment that doesnt exist and we are going to continue down the “too big to fail” route.
The most disturbing feature of this latest RBS number is that we can expect this year to be far, far worse. Domestic bad debt is going to be very bad - and we havent even begun to touch the covenant lite stuff or (the overlapping) lending to overborrowed private equity deals.
For the Labourites who keep whining that this is all the fault of the US - RBS’s problems are European (ABN Amro) now, and will be British this year - HBOS’s problems are mainly UK - these are all failures of regulation that took place on Gordon’s watch inside his remit.
57 “Who is this sort of [back] of a fag packet stuff supposed to impress?”
New Labour mistakes headlines for achievement.
Anyone watching the Brown/Darling press conference… Brown has said ‘America’ about 30 times so far!
53 - Since John Redwood supported Kenneth Clarke in the final round of the 1997 Tory leadership battle, I presume that he is rather unlikely to do that.
59 Good morning, Tim.
You may, if you wish, settle your Gove bet now, but I’m happy to wait until Easter if time’s is hard.
Oh dear, this is so lame. It is just the same old blather…stimulus…America…global…America…led the world…increase…lending…America.
Face it Gordon, it hasn’t worked and your benefit of the doubt has expired now.
The FTSE is up as you would expect but at the moment the £ is sliding again.
The unproductive sector of the economy is now so large that it is a massive ball and chain on the productive. When you’re drowning that’s not good!
A huge reckoning in the form of profound reform of the public sector will have to happen when (if?) we get out of this. The client state will not enjoy the next ten years.
The disaster of Labour economic mismanagement will give the incoming Tories carte blanche to be pretty radical in this.
Brown is just making up words now
de-levering?
63
I’ve noticed there’s nothing on JR’s blog on the appointment, I await with much interest.
Obama’s will be the first inauguration speech by a Black President of the United States, so I expect he’ll be feeling the hand of history.
I’d expect a short, powerful speech, heavy on rhetoric and absent name checks of everyone he’s ever met.
68 - No it is just his crap pronunciation!
64 - We’ll wait until Easter, just in case more cokentrollop photos appear!
62. It’s sad and pathetic. We need decisive and well-worked out policy action, and instead we get stuttering soundbites and cowardly attempts to pass the buck. Please can we have an election and turf these clowns out?
71 - if only…
he used it in a phrase alongside ‘deglobalizing’
Fatuous gobbledegook
What time are we expecting Camerons reshuffle to begin?
Mike, I agree with your assesment that the “Golden Economic Inheritence” in 1997 is going to play a big roll in the narrative from now on. But the other reason for bringing Clarke back is because the country is screwed and the next government will need all the talent it can find to try and save itself and the country. Clarke is too good to not be given a job in these times, as is David Davis, IDS and John Redwood.
60 Listening to Gordon explaining it all in terms of actions taken and followed by other countries, worst falls in manufacturing elsewhere, foreign lending institutions gone etc. I wondered if his problem, as it was pre-Bail Out is whether anyone actually listens anymore?
As Mike says its good to give credit and take some blame, Brown needs to try that.
How does Darling have the brass neck to mention Icelandic banking??
57
My wife watched Darling. She stated his face - which appears to have some sort of rash - and his demeanour suggests he is under considerable stress.
60
The Banks have always made huge losses on overseas lending:
Third World debt
Loans to Argentina
under both Conservative and Labour asministraions.
Perhaps an initial rule should be to separate investment and ordinary banking (as the US used to do), plus a rule that any State loans to suppot banks are implemented with a return of the last 5 years’bonuses by ALL Board Directors (past and present) = gross of course.
That might concentrate the minds wonderfully in the future.
Conservative posters might reflect on whether the best time to claim everything is Gordon’s fault is the week when wall-to-wall coverage of Obama will remind voters that foreigners are a bit short of cash as well.
77 - Because that is what he has been told to say
You can tell when he is reading stuff he doesn’t believe (or understand) - he is stumbling over nearly every sentence
72 LOL! Fine by me, Tim.
In fact I wasn’t so much after the money as indulging in a bit of teasing. Sorry!
What do you make of the KC announcement? I think it’s a strong move by DC but it’s interesting that the Boys In Blue who post here are not unanimous in their support.
O/T Ireland threatens to leave the euro…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/4285331/Help-Ireland-or-it-will-exit-euro-economist-warns.html
77
Perhaps the treasury took advice from Mr Spencer.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-chiefs-firm-cost-councils-163470m-1419272.html
The Tory party’s finances are obviously in good hands.
79 - No-one is saying that it is ALL Gordon’s fault, but he has some responsibility for the mess.
From the Gaza thread of yesterday.
Floater - if you are about. Just seen your post, sorry for not answering yesterday - had gone out!
117 -Tim, when you talk about the attitudes in Arab countries (to Jews), did you form an opinion as to why those attitudes prevail?
BTW your not the guy from “Harry’s Place” who wrote that brilliant series of articles from Syria are you? If you are I have to say what great reading they were.
Where I was (in Sanaa, Yemen), I worked with Yemenis, but also many expat Egyptians, and some Palestinians. Obviously the Palestine / Israel situation was a major factor, but I think I also got a feeling that people felt it was a sort of natural order of things - in fact one of my Egyptian housemates confided to me how he had had trouble in his life because people thought “he looked Jewish”, and he grew up a middle class boy in cosmopolitan Cairo! So any solution to all this ill feeling will only evolve over generations, and current generation has to know that every time something horrendous it only revives, renews and prolongs hatred. Compare with the way many people in Britain still feel about second world war enemies, and there has been no active conflict there for over 60 years! I don’t mean to be totally pessimistic, because I think hope and better will can come about through a determined push for peace.
Sorry, no, I am not the writer from Harry’s Place - I must go and read!
60 Thanks Ken, your knowledge and insight on this subject is greatly appreciated.
I suspect the banks are using the critical function with regard to the financial fabric of society, of their retail and commercial divisions as a lever on HMG to bail out their operations as a whole. (I draw short of using the word ‘blackmail’). Your suggestion of unique administration procedures would be a good path to follow in this respect. Unfortunately, if the actions of Darling are anything to go by, the Treasury is doing more ‘headless chicken’ than ’sense’.
dreadful, dire performance from Darling and Brown. What a total shower.
70 — How long was JFK’s?
84 — that may be true economically but not politically. The voter on the Clapham omnibus sees a global crisis. Blaming Gordon is not the way forward. Better to pick off Darling and Mandelson.
78. Glass-Steagall. We are of course going in the opposite direction with Merrill being absorbed by BoA. I’m not certain that it would have helped - although it might have meant that US banks didnt get so big and thus so problematic.
As for making directors pay back their bonuses - as a taxpayer I love the idea. From an incentive viewpoint there are a few problems - it increases moral hazard (already large) and the gamble for resurrection problem. Would it concentrate minds enough? Would it cause excessive caution by boards? What about dissident directors should they also be forced to pay?
I know enough charts to be able to say that the FTSE has tested and failed to break through resistance around 4500 and I notice a lot of “gaps” in charts have been filled since October (collapses in the US corporate bond indices and so on). Where are we likely to go from here?
JFK’s Speech
“The address is 1364 words and took 13 minutes and 59 seconds to deliver,”
According to the NYT,
Mr. Obama has called Lincoln’s second inaugural speech “intimidating” and John F. Kennedy’s “extraordinary.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/18/us/politics/18speech.html?hp
Exocet of a question on banking regulation, Gordon doesn’t look comfortable…lol
89. The whole crowd of miserable has-beens needs to be swept away.
10. Wrong, Nick, wrong.
I agree people don’t remember the minutiae of economic policy - who said exactly what about the ERM etc etc - but they do understand the broader picture of recent economic history.
People know - believe - intuit - have somehow come to understand (if they are young) - that the Tories inherited a bankrupt socialist toilet in 1979, a nation in embarrassing and chaotic decline.
Voters likewise know that the Tories - after many painful adjustments and pratfalls on the way - delivered a strongly growing economy in 1997, with sound finances, relatively low inflation and unemployment, an economy that had overtaken Italy, and was about to overtake France. Etc.
Indseed, people know the Tories must have left an economy in reasonable shape BECAUSE NEW LABOUR WERE ELECTED ON THE PROMISE THEY WOULD CONTINUE TORY SPENDING PLANS.
If the Tories had bequeathed a mess, Labour would hardly have vowed to perpetuate it.
People DO understand and remember this, especially older voters - like my pensioner Mum (ex working class Labour) - who told me over Christmas: “Labour have done it again, they’ve ruined the country”.
This is the key to winning the next election. Older voters vote more. Older voters remember what Labour did last time.
It’s a very simple message to get across. “Labour have done it again, they’ve ruined the country.” It will work. It’s already working.
I despise Clarke’s views on Europe, but as a senior, liked, and respected politician he will be good at helping to ram this message home. It’s a risky, bold and possibly very clever move by Cammo.
FFS Brown is going on about the sub-prime mortgage market in the US again
No-one believes that it can all be blamed on that.
He needs to accept some share of the responsibility.
But he won’t
Tim, If you are out there, on the last thread you made some comment as to my “predictive genius”, only i didnt predict anything. I questioned why you asked Mike Smithson about Ken Clarke and suggested you find out for yourself using the internet..
97 Darling’s hair is visibly falling out as he speaks at the Number 10 press conference.
Oh Lordy, look how defensive Brown is getting. He really cannot cope with criticism.
Gordon Brown patronising the press room ‘You haven’t understood this”. That won’t get him a good press.
Brown is getting rattled that people are just not understanding his masterplan (mark 2, 3 or 4 - whatever it is now)
He can’t give a figure for how much it will all cost - which means one of two things: they haven’t worked it out or the number is too large to contemplate.
Either way it is a nightmare
95. Brown can’t admit his economic brilliance is just smoke and mirrors, as he has nothing else. If it was just luck, as Blair said, and Brown’s regulation and spending was disastrous, then Brown is left with nothing to offer the electorate.
As I mentioned just before the previous thread began we are seeing a new president being elected in the US, for the first time in nearly three decades there won’t be a Bush or a Clinton in The White House, young people becoming political involved and the feeling of what could be achieved even if it’s likely to be more of the same for 85% of the time. What do we get over here? arguments about the economic conditions over a decade ago and lots of easy pickings for the sketch writers. I despair.
see Shadsy has put up a market on words Obama will use in his speech tomorrow. Puppy at 33-1 is worth a fun bet, given how much interest there was when he first mentioned the idea of his kids having a putty at the white house.
Hilary at 1.83 looks a steal.
Rant! Get her.
98 Browns tapping away at that lectern, rousing the woodworm from their slumber. The pair of them are talking nonsense - their hastily cobbled together plan is falling to bits an hour after it’s launch. Pathetic.
It is very sad. We are a country deep in trouble. We have 2 Scottish socialists with precisely zero experience or competence between them in charge. It might as well be Rab C Nesbitt or Neil from the Young Ones. The markets are now fully wise to this. They will NEVER admit it but the mere fact of having Mc Bean and Badger in charge is in itself an insurmountable obstacle to our recovery. I now think there will be an election in 2009. It can’t go on like this for another year.
103..Sorry meant 25-1 on puppy.
100. They know, the press had plenty of estimated figures over the weekend, presumably from Treasury briefings. Come Monday and the government suddenly has forgotten the monstrous figures in the projections.
One point over this, Ken Clarke is going to make mincemeat of this lot!
Brown is furious at his omnipotence being questioned. The backroom staff will be hurriedly locking away all of the phones.
Its more nuanced than its all Gordon’s fault - Gordon’s job is to get the country through the recession with as little pain as possible, that’s what voters expect and hope. His behaviour October-November (Saviour of the World, the VAT cut, announcements on repossessions & lending) raised expectations that it wasn’t going to be as bad as feared.
Now public sees that he didn’t save the world, he didn’t even save the banks but needs to mortgage more of their future earnings for another attempt at resuscitation.
106 We are an enfeebled nation with that pair at the helm.
Labour - sort it. Or expire.
110 Furious? He’s incandescent with rage.
There is a distinct lack of figures in everything that the dynamic duo are saying.
They are making sweeping statements about what they want to see happen without putting any real detail on it.
One thing that puzzles me is why they are making this sort of announcement before they have asked to see the books of the banks to assess the insurance level they will be offering. Surely you would do your research and then take a position.
108. I simply cannot believe they are presenting an uncosted and plan to tackle such a critical issue. Surely this cannot be because they want to avoid headlines screaming ‘xxx bn more for banks’, can it? It is utterly irresponsible.
89. “that may be true economically but not politically. The voter on the Clapham omnibus sees a global crisis. Blaming Gordon is not the way forward. Better to pick off Darling and Mandelson.”
I think McBean got away with his disturbing personality because punters saw him as being “good at sums”. You’re allowed to be a bit of a vulcan if you’re seen that way. It’s possibily even an asset.
If he loses that then I think he will be hit by a double whammy–he’ll lose the benefit of being seen as “good at sums” plus he’ll lose the excuse for his disturbing personality. I think he’s in the process of losing the “good at sums” reputation right now.
My guess is it’s scapegoat time — within a fortnight people are going to be blaming him if they get a flat tire or stub their toe. I hope I’m right.
Christ, Browns blaming Madoff now.
117 - Oh good God!!
113. Absolutely, Darling looks visibly panicked that Brown is going to start throwing punches about.
115 It is NOT a plan to tackle an issue. It is a political exercise. Brown wants to keep power more than Gollum wants his precioussssssss. Everyting he ever says or does is for that end alone. A moral bankrupt as well as a financial one.
81- Were you.
I hadn’t noticed.
Its a smart move by Cameron.
In the same way that Osborne has had many of his announcements taken by Dave, now they have Ken to do some too.
As for most of the Tory boys on here they wouldn’t recognise a smart political move if it hit them over the head.
Remeber they thought releaseing a video of all the posh lads chortling over Damian Greens mole was a good idea.
The smartest thing today would be a Clause 4 moment for Cameron to announce that the banks should be nationialised.
Anyway, when is the fop cull to begin?
Note to Gordon, stop treating journalists like a bunch of unruly children. Phrases like “I’ve just explained to you” etc won’t engender good press!
Brown just keeps repeating the line - ‘It wasn’t me! The bigger boys did it.’
115 - Runnymede.
Osborne is supporting the plan isn’t he?
Brown really shouldn’t smile on a day like today
Even now he can’t help himself
120. I’m afraid you are right. Brown’s thinking seems to be not far removed from the level of that of the moron posting at 121.
This Brown/Darling press conference is a car crash in slow motion. Unbelievably bad for all of us.
126 Well indeed - Brown can write books about courage but he has none. If he had some and some honesty he’d just go. Do an Estelle Morris and say, ‘not up to it, let’s have a GE’. We are all paying for his hubris and vanity.
Obama’s Speech
I’m not sure anymore that Obama’s speech will be over 23 minutes. In fact, I’m tempted to bet on the opposite now…
10 minutes ago, I did bet 200$ @ 1.83 on “23 minutes and over”.
Now I’m tempted to bet 400$ @ 1.83 that it will be over 23 minutes…
Which would be as if I’m betting 132$ @ 1.564 that it will be under 23 minutes…
Silly me…
—> Reagan’s Inauguration Speech was easily under 18 minutes… And it was made for TV… like Obama’s…
F*ck it, I’m doing it. I screwed up by betting 200$ on “over” ; I’m quite sure not that it will be “under 23 minutes”.
I’m firing 400$ on it…
I’m not used to bet with bookies now; I’m used with exchanges, where you can usually easily reverse a silly, compulsive bet you just made, without signifiant cost…
Apparently Brown isn’t going to get into the business of speculating about the future…
Surely he is already doing so
Two other things that have crossed my mind this morning:
International Regulation - this will take years to agree and implement - so no help now
None of the insurance/additional lending is going to kick in quickly - so again it does nothing for the immediate lending needs of business.
They describe it them as temporary measures - but can’t say how temporary.
So they can’t give us a cost for it all or a timeline for it.
What can they do?
127 - I don’t think the press will be good for Labour tomorrow…
I think we can say the no time for a novice tag is actually being turned on GB!! From BBC website
David Cameron said Mr Clarke, 68, was a “big figure” with “great experience”.
“Ken was the last chancellor of the exchequer to lead this country out of recession. He has more experience of dealing with tough economic challenges than Gordon Brown’s entire cabinet,” Mr Cameron said.
Slightly O/T - This really is a bad week for the BBC Political Editor to be off on a training course…
It is probably a good week insofar as we don’t have him just repeating official spin lines
But it shows p**s poor planning for him to be away at such a vital time
130 My youngest girl once asked me ‘what are monkeys for?’. Today I am asking myself what is Brown for?
BBCi has some comments from Ken Clarke
“I am doing so because this country faces a very serious situation - the gravest economic crisis I have known in my lifetime.”
“credible alternative government”.
“It is going to be a historically important election, and I don’t want to sit on the sidelines - I want to be out on the pitch fighting for the change Britain needs,”
“I accept that the party has come to a settled view on European matters and I will not oppose the direction David will set on European policies in the future.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7837116.stm
Does anyone understand the term ‘back stop insurance’?
More garbled language
135 That is excellent news indeed.
135. Good stuff from Clarke. Now can we have Davis back as well, please?
136 - This is a shite holding position isn’t it?
Nationalise now and create a bad bank.
Why is Osborne supporting this nonsense?
130 ‘What can they do?’
Nothing. The more they say, the more obvious it is that there’s no coherent plan. It’s a smoke and mirrors PR and political skin saving exercise.
Forcing the banks to increase lending with few strings attached? Madness. They’re just trying to reprime a Ponzi scheme.
135 Things are so bad, we have had to wheel out Ken - the Winnie for our times!
I see Peston is being a good poodle on his blog
55 - What are the odds on “God damn America”
139, so this is like Iraq?
Labour party is in power, they make the decision but the Tories get the blame from lefties?
Not sure the electorate will see it that way.
Never mind the economy…………….
Yet another Gordon Brown headline grabbing pledge turns into yet another abject failure to deliver what was promised. The Great Leader, Saviour Of The World, told the NuLiebore Party Hot Air Fest that 300,000 failing school children would get additional one to one tuition to help them with English and Mathematics by 2011.
Now, after 11 dreary years of the current government, who had the mantra “Education, Education, Education” on achieving power, one might think that it was a dreadful admission of failure that these children needed such help. I will refrain from banging on yet again about the SATs fiasco, or failing standards in exams, or universities having to provide remedial classes; but, here’s Gordon pledging specific help for children being let down by the system they have presided over and interfered with for 11 years.
The target for help in the first year of his project was 30,000 children.
The actual achievement was that in the first year of the trial only 3,438 had received extra lessons in maths and 3,514 in English.
I hope he’ll be speaking to Ed about this.
This could make Gord squirm at PMQ’s
The polls will have to move in a week or so after this shocking and rather worrying performance. It beggars belief.
134 ‘what are monkeys for?’
To stop the world being buried under hundreds of feet of bananas?
GB, ‘Glad to have Ken back’
Mr Brown also welcomed the return of Kenneth Clarke to the shadow cabinet, praising his views on the Europe and the government’s fiscal stimulus.
“It’s good to have someone in the shadow cabinet who is supportiveof our policies on Europe, supportive our policies on VAT and probably quietly supportiveof a number of our other policies,” he said.
Hmmm perhaps KC is in the wrong party?
148 - No, Brown is in the wrong job
146. Yes - I have seen some scruffy efforts by tinpot governments to defend their economic policies over the years, but I am genuinely shocked by the shoddy and half-baked effort of today.
148. Subtle as a brick in the face. He’s so clever at this politics game.
148 - Don’t forget Ken recently classified the last two Tory manifestos as “far right nationalist documents”
He’s far preferable to another chinless fop though.
Looking at those pictures you’d never know that Clarke is 10 years older.
Darling off message on the Today programme this morning. He talked about the recession affecting “most developed countires”. I thought it was the Saviour’s message that the whole world was affected.
90
Ken
Where is the FTSE going?
Well sideways for another month at least.
Then we get the reporting season - which will be dreadful- the Obama bounce will have expired (there will be one- how big? dunno) - and we will see tthe expiry of more hedgies.
I would not be surprised to see a high end Feb and then a slow fall.
(Which would be in line with 1974 - the 1972-74 pattern is compelling similar as are the conomics)
148 One should remember Mrs Thatcher always sent Ken Clarke out to bat for her. He is a formidable political operator.
Brown blaming everyone else again and again will play badly for him - if you want to spin this line or even if it is true - you should give the audience just enough evidence to form its own conclusion - if you repeat it like tractor production statistics the audience questions why you keep saying it
A journalist should ask him whether he thinks he has ever done anything wrong - just a little bit of irresponsible borrowing perhaps
153 - Nonsense.
Iaq is booming.
40% house price rises in Bagdhad and Basra last year!
152 ‘He’s far preferable to another chinless fop though.’
I agree. But I’m puzzled as to why are you referring to Clarkes opposite number Lord Mandelson in this way? Isn’t Mandy one of yours?
152. We’re nearly in agreement Tim. I’d rather Ken to “some manufactured robotnic party-line toady.” and you don’t like chinless fops (does that include Balls?)
re 148. It was quite a smart move from Brown - play up the divisions between KC and the party while appearing to be friendly and welcoming.
re 9 what if he wears red and blue stripes?
158 - Mandy isn’t a fop
I could think of a few words to describe him - but I doubt they would get through the filters!
160 Smart but predictable. I’m sure that it was factored into the risks of bringing Clarke back.
160 - Mike, sorry but I think he will be seen as playing a cheap political trick and grinning. A true statesman would have just ignored that part of the question - or said that he has no comment on the internal workings of an opposition party. But no, he decided to grin and make some distorted representations.
155.Listening to Clarke on Radio 5 a wee while ago, I was struck by his blunt assessment of the economic crisis and citing that as the main reason for his return to the Conservative front bench.
It really does resonate with the comments made by Jono and Mike in the above article.
Something else for the’ ‘Right’ to chomp over.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23622530-details/Boris+saves+City+Hall+%27embassies%27/article.do
Shouldn’t be happening, should it?
160 Agree but if he hopes for Tory splits I think Ken’s “I will not oppose the direction David will set on European policies in the future.” and his “if affordable” earlier comment probably cover that off.
I was struck by the “in the future” as regards Europe.
160. But is anyone really listening, Mike?
166 So they’ve conducted a review, decided that the offices are worthwhile but savings can be made. What’s the problem? Much better than a knee jerk reaction, closing them down for political reasons without consultation.
The political obituarists of George W seem to have setlled on “the worst president ever”. And in their list of reasons, three things keep on coming up: [1] Katrina, [2] lies to get us to go to a disastrous war in Iraq and [3] blunders in the economy.
Excepting [1], the other two are on the charge-sheet for this terrible New Labour Gov’t. I suspect that Gordon Brown may well be joining George W in “the worst ever” category.
And — of all the lying, dissembling parties that took us to war in Iraq — only this New Labour Gov’t remains in power. But not for much longer. I suspect there will now be some reckoning on Iraq across the Atlantic, which may not be comfortable for New Labour.
Blimey, the BBC have noticed that Gordon refused to give a cost for the new package.
The spinmeisters will not be happy for this deviation from the officlal line
160.”re 148. It was quite a smart move from Brown - play up the divisions between KC and the party while appearing to be friendly and welcoming.”
Mike, I think that Brown has yet again walked into an elephant trap of his own making. Because lets face it, the final irony in all of this has been Brown’s failure to create the splits and damage to the Conservative party he so desperately wanted since he became PM. His poor stewardship of the economy has in fact brought about the final healing process that now sees the Conservative party at its most united since the early 90’s.
The comments over at ConHom by *Conservative members* have been very favourable, and IIRC, the last ConHom survey showed the majority in favour of his return. Ken’s views on Europe won’t split the party now, but this recession will bring about the most united Conservative party in many a year. And that should really worry this government, the chances of a Conservative majority has increased.
Apologies if this has already been mentioned. On Radio 4 yesterday the Chairman of Barclays was asked why the banks haven’t resumed lending and he replied that in times like these they find that the applicants for loans are neither credit-worthy nor are they coming up with financially attractive propositions. In other words they just don’t feel like it! Incentives just seem to be a huge waste of time and of money.
160. Mike when you say ’smart’ are you using that in a relative sense for the person saying it?
It’s a clunking dig at the obvious and surely something the Tories are ready for. Punching the bruise would be some people’s view, in my view however its just pedestrian, lazy and predictable.
I’d forgotten Redwood ended up supporting Clarke - seems a long time ago…
172, the ultimate example of this was the 2007 Tory conference. Under the kosh the party united as it hadn’t for a decade. Good work, Gordon.
Good to see the Tories have finally seen sense and brought back Ken Clarke.
Now finish the job.
Ozzie out.
1769 not a chance.
zzzzzzzzz
Ozzie is useless as Scote. Why has Clarke not been given the top job?
Ozzie out. Ozzie out.
Well compare Ken today to Brown…
17 more months of this government then 8 years for the Tories to sort out the mess.
The Golden Economic Inheritance was made possible by the Tories’ disastrous handling of the economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Clarke had no choice to do what he did. It’s like claiming credit for putting out a raging inferno when you started it in the first place.
180. Someone forget to shut the playpen door this morning?
UKIP’s reaction.
Monday, 19th January 2009
The return of Kenneth Clarke to the Tory front bench is “the death of any EU scepticism in the Conservative Party,” says UKIP leader Nigel Farage MEP.
“David Cameron could pay a high price for this decision,” Mr Farage added. “Millions of Tory voters who feel strongly about the European Union, strongly against it as we know many do, now have a real opportunity to make their voices heard by voting UKIP in the European elections in June.
“What Mr Clarke’s return to the shadow cabinet shows is that there is clear blue water between us in UKIP and all the other major political parties in the UK.
“They are for the EU, for giving up more of our power to Brussels. We are not just against giving up more power, we are for taking back those powers already handed over – as Ken Clarke is not and clearly the Tory Party isn’t either.
“Ken Clarke famously argued that we should sign an EU treaty even though even he hadn’t read it. We know that he is unthinking in his support for this disaster that is ‘ever closer union’.
“Remember this in June when it becomes time for you to cast your vote: subjugation or freedom and liberty, your choice.”
Hmmmm, difficult for Cameron to make a, ‘big noise’ over Lisbon, you can sign it, even if you haven’t read it.
182 - Whereas Broon is just throwing wood…
181 - the idea that the Tories generally leave an excellent economic legacy for Labour to bugger up is absurd. Look at what labour inherited in 1964 and 1974, for example.
171
Gordon dare not give a cost for the new package even if he knew what it would be .
Why?
Well the banks value loans on what equity there is in the assets Lent against plus the payment history of the borrower plus all sorts of other things- as I understand.
Now we know asset values are falling - so where does a valuation start? At current values? Or what they are likely to fall to?
Since the banks have really got no idea how risky their loans were, when made, and probably still have little idea whether the borrowers will be able to keep repaying (assuming the borrower has not defaulted)..
the banks can:
value at present markets
or
allow for future slippage is assets and payments.
How long is a piece of string?
If you are DarlingBrown, the last thing you want to admit is that asset values may fall a further 40% and half the loans go toxic. Politically it would be a bombshell.
Far better to just let the losses mount and blame the banks…
183. :-). I am in a bit of a childish mood Runnymede, fair comment.
Seriously though I would have liked Clarke to be given Scote, but this move is still a good one by Cammo.
186
Look at what Labour did leave after Callghan and Healey went to the IMF.
Who gets Gordon ready for the cameras? He looked a right scruff this morning.
How can the ‘this isn’t another bail-out, honest guv’ package go through without any votes in Parliament?
Sure expenditure on this scale should at least be subject to some sort of scrutiny.
Ah well - we should be used to it by now
182 and Howe had to sort the mess inherited from Labour, who had to sort out the mess inherited from Barber, who had to sort out the mess inherited from Labour, who had to sort out the mess inherited from the Conservatives, ho had to sort out the mess Attlee left them……
So what?
Politically Ken took over an economy rocked by a global recession and rapidly expanding deficits, left one in good heart.
188, bobajob, you’re wrong about Osborne. The IHT tax move was a key part of the Tory success in 2007, and the freezing of the council tax would’ve, under normal circumstances, provided a similar boost.
I hope, despite the rumours, Spelman is thrown overboard. If possible, Davis should be recalled.
184. You are forgetting Coldstone that nobody cares what UKIP has to say.
193 - Davis shouldn’t be recalled and won’t be.
193.
I think there’s almost no chance of Davis being called back. There’s no position big enough for him now.
Osborne is safe until the election, he’d better not move Hague, and to move Grieve would look like backpedalling
The only other posts that are up to Davis’ standard are Defence or Health (probably won’t move Lansley or Fox), Justice (My bet is this is where Duncan will be headed) or CSF (Gove is too good)
195. Why not?
For a change of comedy, I decided to check Robinson’s Pravda rather than Draper’s unwitting satire that is LabourList.
Apparently Mister Robinson is fully versed in Ken Clarke’s views on Europe, but appears to have sadly forgotten that he left the economy in fantastic shape, prior to Brown getting his grubby mitts on it. More top notch reporting.
And the first fop to lay down his career to make the Bullingdon Boys seem less posh will be….
Dominic Grieve.
Replaced by Chris Grayling.
A good move.
(just a rumour)
191 any pretence of accountability is thrown out of the window. The government doesnt know what to do any more ,it is in panic.
197 - He doesn’t like playing second fiddle!
Although I have thought since October 2007, when Brown decided against an immediate election, that the General Election would be in 2010, the caveat was a collapse of the current administration. It does seem that the death throws of this Labour Government could be stating to appear and it may be forced into an election much sooner than anyone expects.
197 - Because he is unreliable and Cameron doesn’t like him.
186. isn’t it sort of obvious that noone ever leaves a “golden legacy”.
by simple extension of “every political career ends in failure”.
Portillo actually being useful on Sky… wonders never cease!
199 tim - Letting your obsessions run riot again? Dominic Grieve a Bullingdon boy?
Spot the contradiction :
“Brown strongly condemns banks irresponsible lending”
“Brow to force banks to lend at 2007 levels”
194
That Farage piece, is very similar to seant’s rants on Europe (don’t you think?) usually directed at the, ‘left’
The reason why the economy recovered during KC’s tenure is the same reason that economies always recover. After a period of ‘up’ there is always a period of, ‘down’ then a bottoming out and then an ‘up’ Which ever government is in power, always claims credit for the ‘up’ its always someone elses fault for the, ‘down’
UKIP is probably feeling a little chippier this morning, it will make the Tory claim to be a ‘Eurosceptic’ party somewhat harder to sell.
Dear ‘ol Ken after a few beers at the 100 club, I’m sure some political journo, will help him unwind, with a few choice comments about, DC, GO and the rest.
“too much bling, give us a ring”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/sussex/7836955.stm
surely this is just asking for someone to start reporting politicians.
208. that’s it. the only way to _guarantee_ that the economy will be growing as you leave office is to oversee a monumental crash.
199. second hand rumour from conhome, from rumour on skynews. we shall see. good thing about all this, is that cameron has managed the media well on this. He stoked up specualtion about clarke, then brought him back in. basically got coverage for the tories about 5 or 6 times for one reshuffle.
will be interesting to see the rest
197. 203. Silly. Clarke is unreliable as well, and this isn’t about like and dislike.
If Cameron is serious about presenting a team that looks like an alternative government he needs as many big hitters as possible in the shadow cabinet. Davis back at the Home Office in place of the invisible and charisma-free Grieve is a good idea both from that angle, and in terms of hoovering up the votes of those concerned about civil liberties.
Spelman is to be moved according to ConHome to be replaced by Pickles. Looks like Cameron is going to a ‘war’ footing.
206 - No.
He must be sacrificed to preserve the Bullingdon Boys.
The slightly less posh are being ordered over the top to preserve the very posh command structure.
Peter Ainsworth next?
Poor Peter.
All he did wrong was go to a Public School.
Defenestrate the products of the prep schools Dave!
213 - The election would only be a war if held now. In 2010 it will be more like the Battle for France in 1940. Abject surrender by a large but inept defender.
Ernst & Young reckon this is going to be the biggest downturn since 1931. Ouch!
214 tim - Certainly very likely that Peter Ainsworth is for the chop. He doesn’t seem to have impressed. (I went to the same school, BTW!)
213 Certainly adding weight to the top positions with Pickles & Clarke isn’t he?
Are the Evening Standard You Gov figures over on LD Voice genuine ?
I think that Brown is missing a massive point - I don’t want to borrow anymore - people are nervous, they may lose their job. I don’t care if I get a lower interest rate and a free lollypop, I want to pay down existing debts first before I take on more risk.
Tw*t.
213. Somehow the comparison with the profound cowardice of the French in 1940 seems very apt.
186 - You can’t really argue that. The economy was in a pretty poor state in 1974. It was alright in 1964 but no better than 1970.
208, “s the same reason that economies always recover. After a period of ‘up’ there is always a period of, ‘down’ then a bottoming out and then an ‘up’ Which ever government is in power, always claims credit for the ‘up’ its always someone elses fault for the, ‘down’”
Tell that to Argentina.
213, good stuff.
218, Cameron’s trying to boost consumption
189 - Under Heath I can remember power cuts, the three day week etc etc. The UK has been an economic basket case since God knows when. Both major parties have let the country down very badly on the economy and many other subjects. Our entire political system is designed to be short-term and so the changes that we so desperately need to our entire economic and political culture will never take place.
I’ve never seen such a strong line defending the government from Peston on his blog. He’s just parroting the govt’s line. This isnt a bailout, its a , errr, eerr,,errrrr, something where we support the banks with taxpayer guarantees so we pay if the loans go bad but no , its not a bailout.
horse shit journalism.
221 LOL!
Runnymede, are you trying to set a new record for the number of people insulted with a single post?!
Clarke to Sh. Business Sec: yay!
Pickles to Party Chairman: woo yay!
Now all we need is for Davis to return to Sh. Home Sec., and this will be an impressive reshuffle.
224. Yes, yes zzzz
224, the UK’s always been a basket case? What happened to no more boom and bust? What about preventing irresponsible lending creating a housing market bubble?
217 - Ha Ha.
An environmental campaign against flying, run entirely by a ski lodge class, with regiments of LA bound actresses in support would never work!
226. Doing my best
The Bruges Group are really, really pleased.
Barry Legg, Co-Chairman of the Thatcherite Bruges Group, commented that;
“This effectively means the end of David Cameron’s promise to hold a referendum on the EU Constitution. The Liberal Democrat and Labour parties are opposed to such a referendum and it is now clear that Mr Cameron does not have the will to carry the necessary legislation through the House of Commons if the Conservative Party were elected to office. Mr Clarke and his supporters within the Conservative Party have been given carte blanch to oppose the policy.
“The so-called ‘big beast’ has trampled all over Mr Cameron as the price of his return to the Conservative front bench.”
220 - There are many small and medium sized businesses screaming out for bank loans so that they can keep on functioning, pay wages and prevent people from going on the rock n’ roll.
*tests tag*
227 - Hmm, not sure I’d want David Davis back, you never know when he will want to resign his seat to fight a by-election again!
Great to see the Labourites welcoming Clarke back! Contrast this with his time as Health and Education Secretaries when he was taking on the NHS and teacher’s unions and he was the only person who could have challenged Thatcher for the title of “Satan’s High Representative on Earth!” There will be some bozos who’ll be writing to the Telegraph claiming that the apocalypse is nigh but in the same way as Blair made no effort to woo Tony Benn in the run up to 97, Cameron will be secretly pleased if people like the Hefferlump go off in a sulk. They’re better off without them. There will be another group, probably the majority, who’ll grumble about this but if it results in Clarke taking the government to pieces over the economy and puts the Tories on course for power then they’ll go along with it. The risk is that if the Tories fail to win the GE then Cameron will probably be toast. So the news today is full of stories about potentially toxic assets, financial and political!
229 - It was bollocks. I am no supporter of this government, but I remain absolutely distrustful of a Tory party that has inflicted huge pain on this country over the course of many years.
237. thats a change on your previous line about supporting a party that would say tax rises and spending cuts necessary after next election?
222 - It was in a shocking state in 1964 as the Tories had managed the economy entirely to the electoral cycle for the previous 13 years and the chickens were coming home to roost.
Ah, that’s better.
Reading the post at 232 and the UKIP one, how many voters really really care about Europe? Sure, they probably won’t vote for the Euro, but it’s become almost an irrelevance to them.
The constant going on about it by the likes of UKIP and the Better Off Out brigade has done their cause more harm than good, due to boring everyone into submission about it.
That’s why Clarke coming back isn’t the issue it would have been even five years ago.
238 - I did not say I would support such a party, I said I would listen very carefully to its arguments. But the Tories are not making such a case becase they do not have the courage to level with the British electorate.
240. Correct! Europe is the ultimate Westminster Village issue. Joe Public largely doesn’t give a flying fcuk about it. And I also wonder if Cameron would have done this if the polls hadn’t moved sharply in his favour over the last week?
235. I for one was delighted Davis did what he did, and I think it won him many plaudits outside the Tory party as well. If it upset some of the cowardly spinmeisters and unprincipled careerists at CCHQ, so what?
Does anyone know who is replacing Pickles as Shacom?
re 237. But Labour has created a lot of pain in countries that it has invaded illegaly. Don’t forget that massive crime.
Remember Ken Clarke was an opponent of the Iraq war.
240 - Correct.
The Euro nutters flailing against the Tory party is probably a net gain.
Maudes next for the fop chop.
“Greater love has no man than to lay down his life for his House Captain”
219 What YouGov? I can’t see any discussions about a poll on LDV.
240 - The voters will care about Europe if the papers make them care. Europe as an issue has largely been driven by newspaper coverage and if, say, the Sun decides to go big on it agin, that could start to cause problems. I guess that Cameron is gambling there are bigger things to worry about at the moment.
Just to put things simply, the poor regulation of the banks allowed them to create fantasy credit and build up worthless investments.
This required a bailout using half a trillion taxpayer pounds in direct subsidies or guarantees.
The government demanded after that that the banks start lending again as they did in 2007. They obliged and made disastrous loans to overseas entities which promptly went bad.
This second period of poor regulation coincided with the taxpayer holding a controlling interest in one of the major transgressor.
So now there is a second enormous bailout planned. Will regulation be any better this time, or will this cycle continue until we are beyond bankrupt?
227. I wonder if the Pickles to Party Chair move is to placate the grassroots over Clarke’s return? Pickles is hugely popular with the troops and they’ve been calling for him to get the job.
243. Agreed. Having a politician resign on a point of principle was a rare and welcome event.
245 - So was Peter Ainsworth.
But thats not what this is all about Mike.
245 - And Cameron was and is a supporter, just like almost all of the parliamentary Tory party. Clarke can hardly speak out about illegal wars now he is back in the shadow cabinet.
242 - if Cameron had brought Clarke in about five weeks ago, it would have been seen as panic over Osbourne’s performance. The poll move is probably just a happy co-incidence.
As for Europe, be interesting to see how much of Joe Public secretly wouldn’t mind a few things run from Brussels rather than some of the rubbish Westminster spews up
237
“Huge pain over years”.
SO I suppose by implication you accept that having a boom brought on by a credit bubble is a good thing?
I agree with your points about prior economic mismanagement.. It took the last Conservative Government about 13 years to discover what to do economically by which time they were a spent force politically..
The toruble is that Labour in power have managed to be even more incompetent economically.
(and yes I lived through the 3 day week, etc. “never had it so good” “pound in your pocket” etc.. The only vaguely competent Government - economically - was presided over by John Major)
243 - Yes but the way he did it shafted his colleagues which is why it will be a long long time before he is trusted again.
246 Tim so dim, is it panic in the bunker this morning? How’s Dolly?
Ainsworth has made no impact at all. I follow things quite closely and cannot think of a single annoucement or comment from him.
258 - Quite, I’m shocked he survived so long.
225 - In other words, he is not saying what you want him to say.
So RBS write off the Leonid Blavatnik/LyondellBasell £2.5 billion loan.
Funny how you don’t need to look far before Oleg Deripaska’s name pops up:
Through the Merger of Rusal and SUAL in 2007 Blavatnik [and Vekselberg] aquired 18.9% of the United Company Rusal. A controlling interest in United Company RUSAL is in turn owned by En+ Group, an energy and aluminium business owned by Basic Element, which is Oleg Deripaska’s investment firm.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JK05Ag02.html
Ken Clake’s return probably means curtains for poor old Nick in Broxtowe. Doesn’t Nick have a seat very close by? Surely in an election campaign Mr Clarke will be able to penetrate Nick’s borders on an almost daily basis!
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3268621/at-least-two-shadow-cabinet-members-are-going-to-be-sacked-today.thtml
Latest rumour.
247. someone has posted the figures for a London You Gov in the comments thread on polling on LD voice. They are usually accurate but its “anon” and there is no link/citation other than the papers name. Its very unusual for someting to crop up there ahead of here. I just wondered. also the others figure looked very low though i suppose you have no NATS.
Ken Clarke on Lord Mandelson
“I have been critical of what they are doing, I don’t think Peter has made any difference to the rather wandering aimlessness that is their economic policy.”
255 - No, I am pretty wary of booms and am very sceptical about building an economy on the back of ever rising levels of debt. That said, I never felt forced by the govvernment to max out on my credit card or to buy a house that was more than I could really afford. There are a lot of people in this country who need to look at their own actions rather than just to blame others for what they are now going through.
256. Rubbish. What are you on about?
Tim
you may not have noticed that the Tory toffs line was and is a complete failure, so it it no surprise you continue to pedal this line.
From Iain Dale: Sources tell me Grayling to Home, Grieve to Justice, Herbert to Env, Spelman to Local Govt, May to DWP and probably Duncan Leader of the House.
Suggestion on Dale that Duncan has been moved to Shadow Leader, good news as he should be able to take on Harriet better than May has managed.
I see Mr Pickles is top be Tory Chairman. Cameron’s management of his reshuffle, letting it dribble out, is not very impressive.
267 - Well he didn’t discuss it, didn’t seek approval and presented it as a fait accompli. It wasn’t a collegiate way to go about things. Yes it was great theatre, but Cameron wants people who are slightly less petulant.
240. ‘…almost an irrelevance’ could be an understatement. Read the financial and economic news emanating from across the Channel and one begins to wonder if the EU as presently constituted is viable.
Brussels does the dirty on Latvia; Greece, Italy, Spain on the rocks, Eire sinking fast, the new eastern possessions (Hungary, Bulgaria, Ukraine) turning into basket cases and German economic nationalism on the rise if the latest elections are anything to go by.
Wouldn’t take very much more before it’s every man for himself and bugger the Union.
Duncan to Leader of the House
May to Work and Pensions
Grayling to Home Office
Grieve to Justice
Spelman to Local Government
Herbert to somewhere - Environment?
268 - pedal?
On yer bike lad, theres a cull going on led by the poshest to make them seem less posh.
Enjoy it, its funny.
270. I used to hate the way May used to talk about Business! Reminded me of woman talking about business somewhere else! Cannot think where!
re 264. It’s always happening. Ignore until you see from a credible source.
I don’t think the Standard does national voting intention polling these days.
Herbert to Environment I’d guess.
Spelman to the Department that administers Nursery Fees!
Good morning all you Tory Boys*.Here is the good news.In my own special poll,25 out of 34 think that your lads will be the biggest single Party after the next GE.The bad news is that nine rotters think it will be Labour.
* Person with loud opinion but no cash to back it up.
264
Poll here
Poll in London by YouGov for the Standard:
Con 43 (+11)
Lab 37 (-2)
LD 13 (-9)
Changes are since the last general election
266
Agree.
Well as Roger Bootle of Capital Economics said, if we do not get consumers to spend, we’ll have a depression.
Personally I think it will be a close run thing. I suspect many consumers will go bust this year and that will scare the others.
As for Government efforst to get the banks to relend again, I think it’s called p###ing imto the wind.
(but I am a natural pessimist now).
As the US recession will likely end mid 2010** - so markets will start rallying Jan 2010 - then I suspect the UK economic cycle will last in a recession till end 2010 or early 2011 - as we enetered recessioon later than the US.
** when US housing markets are forecast to bottom..
On that basis, the next GE will be a disaster for the Government.
272. ‘Petulant’ my foot. Impetuous, possibly. But so what? It worked and was a move that engendered great respect among a wide range of people - though obviously not among the more narrow-minded New Labour-type individuals in the Tory party.
273 - it would certainly reinforce the views of many ordinary voters that Europe is basically run by a load of money-grabbing mercenaries ready to sell out at the first opportunity.
Hence the disinterest.
265. Fantastic line already.
What are people’s thoughts on Grayling to Home? If is happens!
264. I couldn’t find it on Lib Dem voice! It’s not a traffic snatch operation your involved in is it?
Maude to go?
Replaced by a woman who didn’t go to Public School I’d guess.
280 IF those figures are true then it’s goodbye to all the Lib Dem MPs in SW London, including Cable, isn’t it?
170. Can someone please explain to me what George W. Bush did wrong on the economy?
Most of the deregulation happened in the Republican congress under Clinton, it was Democrats stuffed full of lobbying money from Fannie and Freddie who removed the bank (which had the majority of sub prime mortgages) from governmental oversight and it was Alan Greenspan who set the interest rates that could have prevented an asset price bubble in the first place.
So I fail to see what this had to do with Bush.
274. Grayling is a good move. He’s a bruiser and comes across very well.
271. by “dribble” out do you mean hog the news agenda for a few hours on Gordon’s big day ?
280. Taxi !!!
285 - Good move, he is an attack dog and Labour’s Home Affairs policy and record is a goat tethered to a stake waiting to be shredded!
285. Grayling should be very good at that - he should be able to draw blood from Jacqui smith’s open puss riden axe wound.
280- Bye bye Lib Dems SW London seats
Spelman to take responsibility for this
A Place for Every Child: Making the Free Entitlement Work
23 October 2008 – National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA) and the Local Government Association (LGA) today launched a new publication, ‘Making the Free Early Years Entitlement Work – good practice case studies to partnership working.’
I am liking the look of this reshuffle. Cameron is strengthening the key positions with effective media operators as well.
Grieve is very capable and I feel that Justice will suit him better. Grayling has that kind of no nonsense character that will suit a tough operating Home Secretary.
The only reason I did not expect it was because I did not think Cameron would move Herbert, who has done a decent job.
But so far so good.
293 - what a horrible image
295 She has relevant experience, tim.
289. Simply because it happened on his watch and the warning signs were there but nothing was done. You’re right about the Clinton connection. One of his administrations’ policies was to increase home ownership among African-American, a laudable goal for sure but it resulted in credit restrictions being eased dramatically so as to allow N.IN.J.A. loans. Bush kept this policy and did nothing to curb reckless lending.
293 - forgot to add, you are aware of the alternative meaning of the term “axe wound”?
297. Well Smith’s body is semi-detached from her head politically after so many blows to the head over so many lapses in policy. The wounds have not healed!
The only move that worries me slightly is May as Shadow DWP
I am not sure she will have the forensic skills to pick apart the Purnell spin in the same way that Grayling did.
Everything else so far looks ok
Grieve will be much better suited going up against Straw - his grasp of detail will be vital in opposing the new bill
Spelman will do fine against Blears - mind you, anyone could shine against her.
Grayling will wipe the floor with Smith - and about time too
289- Didnt the budget deficit under Bush explode in his first term?
Standard Poll now online
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23622527-details/Brown+faces+losing+25+per+cent+of+London+seats/article.do
In a worrying result for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, already suffering from the drop in support in last year’s mayoral election, his party is down nine per cent on the 2005 result.
If today’s poll result is applied to every constituency, Labour would lose 11 of its 44 seats on the new boundaries and the Lib-Dems five.
300. No, what does it mean?
305 - a part of the female anatomy that is also used to describe somebody like Ashley Cole, Craig Bellamy and/or Derek Draper
Fairly muted reaction on the Spread.
CON 344-350 up 4.
LAB 232-238 down 4.
LD 42-45 unchanged.
I Sold LDs at 43 and LAB at 236 last week and would have expected more of a return.
Those YouGov figures if confirmed look scary for the Liberal Democrats.
304 Emily Thornberry enters the killing fields.
299. Yes but there wasn’t much Bush could have done, the constitution gives the power to regulate commerce to congress.
303. While a budget deficit is bad, it wouldn’t have caused or contributed to a financial crisis.
293. Ugh, what a disgusting and misogynistic post.
304. The Iraq factor fades…all set for a rerun of 1979, only much more serious for the Lib Dems in terms of seat losses.
264 Can’t find it - can’t you post a link?
There was a YouGov poll on Heathrow in the Standard last week. Is it that one?
304. Joel le Taxi!
Looks like the BBC will be having much fun on election night with the Taxi Graphic!
290. 292. 293. Thanks. I hope so. Feeling very positive about the current political momentum, now all we need is an election!
298 - Yep.
Mark Thatcher to Arms procurement, Arfur Daley to Auto Bail out.
We the taxpayer have now lost over £10bn from RBS alone. The Govt bought 22.8 Billion shares at 65p in the autumn which are now trading at 22p; that’s £9.8bn down and they’ve just thrown another £1.5bn down the drain. They’re underwriting the latest share issue at 31.75p. That’s another 15bn shares bought which are now worth just 22p. Not looking good I’m afraid. Our money is being thrown around and lost like confetti.
So, what London constituencies will fall with that poll?
306 Please gentlemen, drop the reference. Go over to Guidos if you want to make comments like that.
309.
281 - Labour are going to be destroyed at the next GE. It could well be worse than 1983 for them. I live in the Midlands and I would not be surprised to see them lose just about every seat they hold here outside of the inner cities.
314. Tony Blair to Middle East envoy…..pure satire….oh no that actually happened
317 - apologies sir, just trying to point out some modern day venacular that may be misinterpreted.
I also apologise for the use of the word “Craig Bellamy”
314 Brown and Darling to the debtors prison
280 - Holy moly.
Lib Dems losing horribly here.
Clarke’s remarks on Europe (”David sets policy on the EU”) have surely put that issue to bed, for now. They’ve reached an agreement.
Cammo is not a twerp, he will have extracted this promise beforehand: in return for a nice final flourish of political power.
Is anyone surprised? Let’s face it Clarke is a vain and ambitious (if likeable) man; the only alternative, for him, to this re-entry into the Shadow Cabinet - was a dwindling future of vain impotence as an occasional grandee wheeled out to talk on unwatched TV programmes.
Contrast that sad fate with the prospect of actual real power, quite soon, which seems highly likely as the Tories pull ahead again in the polls.
Paris is worth a mass. Clarke has forsaken his europhilia for the chance of a last grab at glory. And who can blame him?
Besides, Europe is (sadly for me) not an issue right now, and unlikely to be one prior to the GE. The euro is off the agenda (Clarke has already said its the wrong time to go in, even the Lib Dems have abandoned the notion); Lisbon will very likely be passed by the time the Tories reach office.
There may be the chance of Clarke-Cameron euro-splits after the election, as Cammo is pressed to fulfil his skeptical promises - but in political terms that’s an eon away, and no one cares right now.
Tories just want to win. Clarke’s return is evidence of that Nietzschean Machtgelust.
311 Coldstone got there first at 280.
Great poll, shows the carping about Boris doesn’t convince Londoners. Although I would guess that it was done at the same time as the Heathrow poll* so that might skew it a bit.
* The Heathrow poll included an analysis by voting intention… so they must have asked a voting intention question. I suppose it depends on whether they asked the VI question before or after the Heathrow one.
316. Well some rough calculations on Baxter show these seats would fall
Hammersmith
Hampstead and Kilburn
Hendon
Harrow East (Tony McNulty!)
Poplar and Limehouse
Westminster North
Tooting
Eltham
Brentford and Isleworth
Croydon Central
Battersea
Ealing Central and Acton
All going blue, usual caveats apply!
323 - What a shame!
So, will Ken Clarke be David Camerons Willie?
326 DOH! Forgot the LD to Con gains!
Kingston and Surbiton
Twickenham (Vincent Cable, I don’t believe this!)
Carshalton and Wallington
Sutton and Cheam
Richmond Park
326. After boundry changes, thats half of Labours majority gone just there, isn’t it?
327 - Hopefully the end of those idiotic boards with “winning here” on.
Surely Labour will win in Brent Central now. No more Sarah Teather. **sniff**
327. And ironically this would bring about something of a ‘decapitation strategy’ with Cable and Davey both out. That really would be nemesis following hubris.
329 - What odds can we get on the “next chancellor - ahem” losing his Twickers seat, Shadsy?
ConHome has list of changes
New to the Shadow Cabinet:
The Rt Hon Kenneth Clarke QC MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform
Mark Francois MP
Shadow Minister for Europe
New Shadow Cabinet responsibilities:
Alan Duncan MP
Shadow Leader of the House of Commons
Chris Grayling MP
Shadow Home Secretary
The Rt Hon Dominic Grieve QC MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Justice
Nick Herbert MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
The Rt Hon Theresa May MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and Shadow Minister for Women
Eric Pickles MP
Chairman of the Conservative Party
Caroline Spelman MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government
326 Harrow East (Tony McNulty!)
Ha ha. He certainly wasn’t a happy man on The Politics Show yesterday - I cannot see his mood improving with this news.
271 I would have thought the best way to present a reshuffle would be as a fait accompli (although trailing the KC appointment overnight was a good move). It’s difficult for the PM to do this as the press can watch cabinet ministers going in and out of No 10, but I don’t see why Cammo didn’t do it - it would look much better managed done that way.
332 - Of course the Lib Dems are the real opposition… to the Greens.
336 - Reshuffles are always dribbled a bit unless people don’t actually care about them. Tory reshuffles in the Pointless Parliament (1997) were not exactly headline news, similar with LD shuffles.
I suspect that Labour reshuffles in 2012 will be similarly ignored.
Mike Smithson.I don’t do PayPal but here is my offer to you.
I am willing to bet £100 to NOTHING that the Lib Dems get fewer than 43 Seats.
336 with Tim Montgomerie, Iain Dale, Guido all having sources in CCHQ plus the media I doubt Cameron could have done much more than he did in trying to present it in one go.
Any odds on a Cable, Huhne & Clegg treble to lose their seats ?
20/1 ?
336. not really, it’s a bit of fun for political geeks, most of the public don’t have a scooby who these people are anyway so it hardly matters how it comes out. The good thing has been cameron building up suspense over this for a few weeks imho and then actually going ahead and doing something (bringing clarke back)
Must be good to have so much talent that it is difficult to employ it all effectively.
Where is Damian Green?
Clarke would not be in a Tory cabinet though, would he? He is there until the election and that is it, isn’t it?
334 What’s Mark Francois’ position on Europe?
I’m pleased to see he’s an Essex Boy (although born on the wrong side of the Lea in Islington) and MP for my old home town. With a name like that he might even be a Huguenot like some of my ancestors (probably) were.
Surely William Hill should be paying out on Clarke now…
341. Stop it, stop it, the prospect is just too delicious…
334 Watcher - Looks pretty well-balanced. No huge surprises there, but all sensible stuff.
344 - You’re joking? He’ll be in government, he’ll be needed.
Royal Bank shares now down 44% this morning - looks like full nationalisation to me within weeks.
Excellent reshuffle on every count. But this one made me smile - Mark Gino Francois has joined the Shadow Cabinet in his post as Shadow Europe Minister. What’s Dave trying to tell us with that one?
Oh, Tim, Mr Francois went to a comprehensive school. Trust you’ll be voting for us now.
334. Interesting: the eurosceptic Francois elevated to the Cabinet. That’s to keep the ukippers happily smoked - balancing the re-entry of Clarke.
344 Why ever not? He’s not standing down, I imagine he might like one more job in Government, even if only for a year or two.
343. Damian Green. Any move would be after the conclusion of police/CPS proceedings. Galley and Green are still on bail (I believe).
350 - Weeks?!? I wouldn’t give it until the end of the week to be honest!
LLoyds down 12%
RBS down 42%
Barclays up 5%
Not a ringing endorsement when overall market up around 2%.
352 - Cam is a smart cookie. I don’t think Labour realise how formidable an opponent he is yet. They might not until they are collecting their P45s.
344 - I very much believe - and hope - that it isn’t.
352 - Francois was promoted because he’s not posh.
End of story.
271. i believe the NOTW had a mole inside the Carlton Club kitchens and found one of George Osborne’s dummies in a leftover bowl of soup
344. Clarke will be retired after 12-18 months I would say.
346 Apparently not, David. Perhaps somebody here could give us the heads up when they do. I have work to get on with.
Btw, I noticed that Hills are offering 50/1 against Obama going to watch West Ham at a Premier League match this year.
Kind of tempting.
347. @ Runnymede – Who do you despise more, Labour or the Liberals?
Citizen I can see no reason why someone on bail for a stitch up should not be in the Shadow team now. It would be a great coup to have plod try to prosecute a Shadow Cabinet minister on a trumped up charge.
Any other attitude allows Smith to get plod to do it to someone else to keep them out of the Shadow team too. Naturally, rather Stalinist.
Great reshuffle, I must admit.
358 - It looks to me like he has been brought in to add some beef to the Opposition front bench. Once elected the Tories will not need him, the job will have been done.
364 But he shouldn’t be promoted just because he’s been arrested.
344. He’ll go some way into Camerons first term. Not sure if he’ll go all the way, but certainly the first couple of years, I would have thought.
316. On UNS, the LibDems would lose everything but Southwark N & Bermondsey.
However, applying reasonable incumbency effects, losses might be restricted to Carshalton & Wallington, Richmond Park, and Sutton & Cheam, leaving the LibDems with 4 seats; Southwark, Hornsey & Wood Green, Twickenham and Kingston & Surbiton, although the last two would be tight….
PBC Diplomacy update
http://www.playdiplomacy.com/game_play_details.php?game_id=6044
Germany and England look set to attack Russia, Turkish and Italian navies clash in the Med and France valiantly defends against Anglo-German advances.
Austria’s forward unit is encircled and destroyed in the famous battle of Tsaritsyn.
The Austrian General surrendered against the expressed orders of the mad Austrian emperor Franz-Joseph to fight to the last man.
363 I think he just despises people, Bobajob. Makes life simpler.
I still can’t quite work out how its going to work out with Clarke taking on Mandy, with Clarke in the Commons and Mandy in The Lords?
It’s nice to witness the not so slow death of LD London:)
359 Hollow words tim. Didn’t you notice what happened at C & N? The Class War is over - the electorate are more concerned with the economy and the incumbent idiots in Downing Street making things much, much worse.
372. Parliment no longer matters - its for the C4 news and newsnight war.
372 - It will be a battle fought in the media and on TV. And it will be a classic.
363. Very hard to say. I don’t tend to distinguish between them, really - I see them as two heads of the same hydra.
372. that’s the terrible thing about the mandy appointment. he is around forever! even after Labour are kicked out, Jacqui Smith, Mcnulty and co are distant and grim memories…..Lord Mandy still strolls around whispering in journo’s ears etc. He will be around long after Gordon has gone.
365, don’t feel too bad. Do you really want Brown to stay PM?
364. I think patience on this issue is best. The revelation of the taping of Damian Green’s arrest (without his knowledge) prior to his arrival at the police station (released just before Christmas) means that this is unlikely to end well for the police or others.
Am loving this reshuffle, looking forward to seeing Grayling vs Smith, and the thought of Hunky Dunky facing Harman is a delight.
324.”Besides, Europe is (sadly for me) not an issue right now, and unlikely to be one prior to the GE. The euro is off the agenda (Clarke has already said its the wrong time to go in, even the Lib Dems have abandoned the notion); Lisbon will very likely be passed by the time the Tories reach office.
There may be the chance of Clarke-Cameron euro-splits after the election, as Cammo is pressed to fulfil his skeptical promises - but in political terms that’s an eon away, and no one cares right now.”
Rats! Seant made the point I was going to, never mind he did better.
All those hoping that Clarke’s return would cause a rift over Europe are going to be disappointed. The party is now firmly Eurosceptic and settled in that position. And as Seant has just proved, the UK economy right now will always trump Europe as the more pressing concern.
369. However, there would also be the possibility of “surprise” gains, such as Islington S, or Hampstead to offset losses…
Overwhelmed with “sell” instructions for RBS at the moment.
Just thought I would pass it on folks prior to a suspension in dealings
383. F***k ! - this is getting medieval
383 - I think it is game over for RBS
That London Poll is great for the LD’s! They are doomed - DOOMED at the next election! Looks to me as though it is YELLOW TAXI TIME!
Looks like Charles Kennedy & Hughes along with a dozen unknowns will be retreating behing the Ulster MP’s in the commons.
All the Hurbris about sharing the opposition despatch box in 1997 and taking the front row etc!
378
one of the ‘undead’ - he’d love the image.
“Can europhile Ken Clarke avoid rocking the Tory boat?”
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/themole,,can-europhile-ken-clarke-avoid-rocking-the-tory-boat,71859
385
Yes indeed,watch out for more press revelations.
Regret I am sworn to secrecy.
government buys RBS and makes a loss
government sells gold and makes a loss.
government saves the banks then hasn’t, but has spent a ton
I am seeing a pattern here.
389. Govt buys NRK but it still needs £6Bn…
389. Yes ‘buy high, sell low’. Ever wondered why these clowns ended up in politics?
389 - Yeah the government haven’t got a clue!
369. The Electoral Calculus predictor changed when Ming was leader to incorporate incumbancy - the LD’s look like a dead man walking.
389, sorry to mention this again, but Brown’s joke about banks going bust is really, really not going to play well if RBS sinks.
RE 342 “most of the public don’t have a scooby”
is this more modern Cockney rhyming slang? If so, its meaning eludes me.
394.
Didn’t they start the day at 30p+?
Because the market is reacting to our dear leader being the majority shareholder, it’s a sign of confidence in his business plan.
395. Scooby = scooby doo = clue
what i am saying is most of the public don’t have a clue
395. Scooby = scooby doo = clue
what i am saying is most of the public don’t have a clue
scooby doo = clue
396 - Yeah its a market vote of no confidence in the Government as a banker…
Ta.
So Herbert shall I wave goodbye to my £600 in RBS and salvage the £40 that’s left by flogging the lot?
388. The Europe thing is a red herring. The battle has been had. The eurpophiles lost. The CPP is overwhelmingly eurosceptic, as is the party in the country. Ken Clarke is back on the front bench to help deal with the worst economic disaster this country has faced since 1930. What is so hard for the media to grasp about this?
402 - The media in the main like to run non-stories!
What is the end game for the government in this financial crisis? Are we there yet?
370 David Roe, So will GB be allowed by Ger to take Holland and avoid dropping a unit down to 4?
369 I think the LDs will still gain Emily’s Islington seat.
401.
Perhaps full nationalisation by the end of today is a distinct possibilty.
Who knows what the compensation could be?
404 - The problem is that governments are reliant on international credit lines as well. If the market loses faith in the UK government then we will have a desperate situation.
One for Martin Day: Eric Pickles tools up for the General Election -
http://www.sf-radio.net/doctorwho/charaktere/bilder/sontaran.jpg
408. Cannot open it port 80 error message!
407. The government’s direct overseas borrowings are minimal. Are you thinking of foreign purchases of gilts?
There could be some competition in the Bank Nationalistaion race.
http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0119/banks.html
“VINCE CABLE on the new banks bail-out: Confused? You may very well be… but most of Britain’s bankers are, too”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1120701/VINCE-CABLE-new-banks-bail-Confused-You–Britains-bankers-too.html
its all coming apart for RBS.
409 Try this then:
http://img.metro.co.uk/i/pix/2008/04/doctorwho_450×250.jpg
rbs share price
20.00p
-14.70 (-42.36%)
410 - Indeed, if the government cannot sell gilts then they are screwed.
414.
Seems RBS have been fleeced of $2.5 billion by this guy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_Blavatnik
and the taxpayers are now going to foot the bill..
The sheeple are told he is a “Russian oligarch”…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1120764/Taxpayers-poised-toxic-debts-Government-throws-200bn-lifeline-High-Street-banks.html
406 If that happens, what percentage of the banking sector will be on HMG’s books? RBS + Lloyds is an enormous mountain of risk. Incredible.
418 - Are you on a Jew hunt you sad c###?
419. Effectively the taxpayer will be taking the risk even if they are not nationalised. The Insurance scheme is about getting the Govt to underight the risk.
371. Oh.
418. Go away you idiot.
418 The British taxpayers been forked over good and proper by him and Mandelsons yachting chum.
420 Who mentioned religion dimwit? Stop stirring (again).
#418 Also has connections to Oleg Deripaska - see my post at #261
412
Is the Daily Mail deliberately going for the most unflattering pix of Brown? He looks like the Widow Twanky.
Bank melt-down on the day Gordon does ‘Saviour - The Return’.
Does this bring the prospect of a GE any closer?
424 - Why do you think he’s brought the guy up Ed?
Have a think.
379. No. That’s true. Just a shame the choice needs to be between Brown and Cammo – possibly the worst ever aggregate pairing since Wilson vs Heath II ?
tim-You are of course correct in your assumption.Don’t give Crosby and the dimwits a moral victory.
418. I sniffs more anti-semitism. Could be wrong, but I sniffs it.
429. Or Wilson v Heath IV?
Anyone have an idea when Darling will make a statement to Parliament today? It will be good to see Ken Clarke sat on the front bench!
426-
427 - Probably not any closer but probably more decisive. I do think that it is entirely apt that Gordon is on his feet saying “We must save the banks” as the bank shares are capitulating.
420 tim unusually perspicacious of you.
428 You’re the one reading religion into it. Messrs Blavatnik and Deripaska appear to have indirectly benefited from the generosity of the UK taxpayer in the writing off of the loans.
437. Don’t be obtuse EdP.
432. Yes actually IV, I stand corrected. Everyone was wholeheartedly sick of both of them by then. Sound familiar?
435
Gordon’s problem is that about 75% of the electorate who follow such things may logically agree the banks should be saved but visceral emotions shout “stuff them, serves them right, let them go bust”.
A special “bankers” tax would be very popular - levied only on Bank Directors earnings over the past 5 years would be very popular…
295.How sad Tim, I see you are sitting this morning spamming the threads of Conhom with this comment repeatedly.
437… and the fact that they are Jewish and Rod Crosby has brought them up is sheer coincidence…
437 - Are you being deliberately stupid, as to Rods intentions here Ed?
Why do you think the guy links to Neo Nazi and anti semitic conspiracy sites, for your education?
440 - Well let it happen and see how happy they are on a literal bread line!
Agree strongly with Mike and Jono.
As I said at the end of the alst thread, Ken Clarke was a very successful chancellor, who took over after Black Wednesday and left an economy surging so strongly ahead that all Brown had to do was not wreck it.
The people who argue that his presence on the Tory front bench gives new Labour and the BBC an opportunity to point to Conservative splits over Europe are missing an important point - the BBC and others had already been pointing to Ken’s absence from the front bench as proof that Europe was stopping Cameron from being able to deploy his best people. (See Nick Robinson’s blog a couple of weeks ago.)
By making full use of William Hague and Ken Clarke, DC does two things: he demonstrates that he is not obsessed with Europe, and that he is confident enough and persuasive enough to get the best known figures in the party into his team. And he show’s that he’s not afraid to be overshadowed as a lesser leader might have been.
One of the problems which successive Conservative leaders had from 1997 to 2005 was that half the party’s best known figures were not on their teams, and that the shadow cabinet was overshadowed by people on the backbenches behind them.
Instead DC is well on the way to creating a situation where the shadow cabinet looks as much like an administration as the real one - and some of the other changes today may help with this.
Eric Pickles will be an excellent party chairman, and IMHO the move of Nick Herbert to shadow Environment, Dominic Grieve to be Shadow Justice Minister, and Chris Grayling to be Shadow Home Sec will strengthen focus in all three of those areas.
420: Just imagine a pb.com meetup, the delightful fun that could be had from sneaking up and whispering “Jooooooooos” into Rod’s ear.
He’d probably self-combust.
New thread - Is Labour doing a tad better in London than elsewhere?
Gosh over 400 comments already.
Haven’t had time to read them all so sorry if this has been said -
but this move has Osborne’s fingerprints all over it.
He stood aside for the man he knew was suited to the task before. He will make room again.
The relationship between Osborne and Cameron is fundamentally different from that between Blair and Brown. Both are confident personalities. Both are comfortable with each others strengths.
Heard the phrase ’squandered Clarke’s economic legacy’ 4 times this am - listening to the Beeb!
438 I really hope you aren’t suggesting that I’m siding with Rod Crosby’s controversial views. I can assure you I hold no torch for those, thank you.
433- http://services.parliament.uk/calendar/
Looks like 3:30pm
Hmmm… are the Tories not concerned by the lack of any women whatsoever in their big roles? Normally this would be quite a painful mistake, but perhaps in current times they can get away with it.