First poll of 2009 has the Tories 7 points up
January 8th, 2009
CONSERVATIVES 41% (-1)
LABOUR 34% (-1)
LIB DEMS 15% (+1)
Does this show that the Brown bounce is over?
The first poll of 2009, a YouGov survey for the Sun, has the Tories still on a seven point lead. Compared with the last survey from the pollster before Christmas both Labour and the Tories are down a point with the LDs up one.
This is clearly very little change but the fact that the Tories are still in the 40s with a clear margin will bring some relief to David Cameron.
The margin is not sufficient for the Tories to win an overall majority.
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Gaza?
Malcolm
Repost from last thread
Assuming LD’s are on 15 then according to Baxter 41/34/15 would leave the Tories 9 short.
7% up or down 1%?
This is hardly a huge shock - the festive season and aftermath rarely brings big poll changes
Where is Martin Day? Has he shown himself since his early release on parole?
So I guess the wonderful Israeli Attack Force is still being defended by western politicians having committed war crimes, killed a UN humanitarian aid worker, and ignored the calls of the common folk of the world to stop fighting.
But they must not be criticised for they are fighting against Arabs, and so it would be further guilt by association if Brownstuff were to grow a spine and call the Israeli government what they really are.
Obviously not as important as an opinion poll or a new Englnd cricket captain, but then again, they are only Arabs after all.
Malcolm
5. I don’t think he has! He must have done an Edmund Dantes and escaped from his cell without anyone noticing!
For the Tennis fans, Murray wins 6-4,6-2
5 – Martin is slumming it over at Mr Dale’s…
And absorbed with his own blog?
5 & 7 - He has been seen posting on Iain Dale’s blog!
Hilda
Fancy that; Murray wins.
Obviously good news for Brownstuff; but I guess slaughtered Palestinian children won’t find it of such importance.
Malcolm
5
He has been extremely busy on his blog, I have a look at it every day because it makes me laugh. He is definitely on a one man mission
I knew what Martin would write about the LD reshuffle before I even read it!
http://nickcleggneilkinnock.blogspot.com/
11
Malk19Ken, Give it a break, only you could post something like that
A lead of 7% points is small beer. It will get wider and wider as the real world pain of Gordonomics hits more and more people. I think Labour have peaked.
Reported by whom? Do they have known sympathies? However if the Conservatives are back in the 40s then that should help to reduce the chances of an early election, which is great since I’ve been betting that it will be as late as possible.
I still believe though, that in an actual election, if the Tories polled 41% they would get a majority. The reason being that Labour would be down from the 34% that this poll is giving them. Conservarives get 41%, they form the next government, IMO.
Well that is interesting, but this isn’t really a good time for polls as most people are still switched off from the Christmas Hols.
Brogan is saying that there won’t be a Tory reshuffle ahead of a Lyons report
Or is that another bluff?
15
One of the regular posters jsfl posted it at the end of the last thread. He says its on Sky
6. Israel is the closest thing we have to civilisation we have in the middle east. That says a lot about the region.
Hilda
From Nicholas Christof:
Arab terrorism built support for right-wing Israeli politicians, who took harsh actions against Palestinians, who responded with more terrorism, and so on. Extremists on each side sustain the other, and the excessive Israeli ground assault in Gaza is likely to create more terrorists in the long run.
If this pattern continues, we may eventually see Hamas-style Palestinians facing off against hard-line Israelis, with each side making the others’ lives wretched — and political moderates in the Middle East politically eviscerated.
Malcolm
11. You need to start getting over yourself.
17
Welcome back James, long time no post?
re 5 and why was Martin?
I guess that’s it for the petrol price Tory lead correlation then, although I did notice that petrol has gone up 3p around here today.
14. It was reported by Jon Craig on Sky (who understandably have the lowdown on polls in the Murdoch Press). I posted it and yes I have sympathies. However, I do not exaggerate or spoof polls!
Gaz
Well of course the others are Arabs, so they don’t count.
The extreme right wing Arab governments care little about the poor in their countries and will sleep with anyone who assists them in hanging on to power. Even Israel. My God, don’t they sound like NuLabour?
Malcolm
re 5/23 and why was Martin banged up? that should have been
LD’s are on 15%
From the Sun:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2111381.ece
Panurge
Once again the messenger not the message.
Malcolm
I thimk Martin Coxall posted on Monday that he’d got his YouGov survey which would have been for this poll. Mike S said earlier in the week that Populus will be reporting in The Times early next wee so there fieldwork could well run into the weekend. The mood music has got increasingly dire as this week as gone on so it will be interesting to see if that translates into a sharp move in the polls.
Malcolm,
Give it a rest - you’re turning into Darmstadtium.
6
Apart from the usual Islamic nutters in Iran and parts of Lebanon,support for Hamas / Palestinians in the Middle East is virtually non existent.They still remember well the behaviour of the Palestinians during the first Gulf war.
27. Interesting how The Sun reports this.
26- It was a murky affair of voting irregularities in the PB annual election. I don’t know exactly what happened but it resulted in Martin’s brief banishment. He seems to have decided not to rush back now that he’s been liberated.
19 - most of Lebanon is pretty civilised.
According to The Sun, Cameron outscores Brown by 1% on who would be best PM 30 v 29.
34
and damned ungrateful considering the “Free Martin” campaign
32. It’s almost as if the Sun (via GPW) is telling Dave what he needs to do to get their full support.
Where were all these moaning people in the UK about Gaza when people when people were being bombed and shot in Northern Ireland for 30 years..in their own country. Thousands had to move home in a progressive and massive population shift that continued well into the 90s.
I’ll tell you were most of them where..nowhere because they are essentially cowards,afraid to deal with with issues near their front door for fear that they might actually get hurt.
Pathetic and useless.
33 - I thought he was banned for poor spelling and bad grammar?
re 27 Only a quarter of voters think the Saviour of the World’s plans will work.
I was intrigued by this bit, the Sun can seemingly read all this into a poll with a 3% MoE
BRITAIN is heading for a minority Tory government at the next election - with a SECOND election six months later, according to the first poll of 2009
Will this bring closure on the 2009 election speculation?
No, but it should end GE speculation for Q1 2009.
Gordon has given everyone a tax cut with his £15 billion worth of VAT reductions; interest rates at 2% (with every prospect of falling further when this poll was taken); petrol down dramtically; inflation coming down. He has had months of fawning press and the Beeb lauding him as Saviour of the Universe.
And yet he still starts the year seven points behind.
Now the pain starts for Labour.
31. And those with longer memories their destabilising behaviour in Jordan in the 1960s….
As I have said a few times recently, while other Arabs enjoy using the Palestinians to have a rhetorical pop at Israel the realistic among them privately regard the Palestinians as an embarassing nuisance.
On topic, the Tories should be relatively satisfied though they shoudl do better.
Yet again, I ask people to ignore the seat calulator tools. Bunkum.
Britain has a long tradition of having the biggest swings where it matters.
I believe that as the government start a spending a second round of money to little effect their numbers could well come under sever pressure. The Tories, however, need to get attacking better.
35 Cameron and Brown score the same? That will come to a shock to some of the Cameron luvvies here.
27. What a strange way to report the poll. Has there been an election called?
I would say rather disappointing for the Conservatives, when most of the news has been about job losses. If they can’t extend their lead dramatically perhaps Dave’s Conservatives have peaked!
14. The Conservative share is only ‘back’ in the 40s in the sense of it ’still’ being there. You have to compare like with like and YouGov haven’t recorded a sub-40 share for the Tories since early October 2007 (around the time of the Election That Never Was). Other companies have had sub-40s, but until we see their January polls it’s too early to say there’s been a move back to the Conservatives. As the previous five YouGovs had the Conservatives at 41% +/-1%, this is smack in line with their share in the back end of 2008.
re 34/36 the thread would be no doubt fascinating to read (I was away over new year) any ideas of which day it was?
41 Yup, that’s about right, PfP.
Quite a few of us rooted for Martin during his exile, so it’s disappointing that he’s not returned.
Apologies for going O/T so soon but I thought it worth highlighting this that Dale has just posted on. It may be of interest to Mike and others regarding blogging, libel and defamation:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/01/bloggers-libel-and-defamation.html
38. Quite right - they would much rather pontificate about terrible events abroad from a safe distance. btw. four members of my family served in Ulster in the 1970s and 1980s…
30 Patrick
Oh, worry not fellow Hammer; I have my uses. Getting eight up the noses of those who worry about Murray, Strauss and the polling power of the Liberl Democrats can’t be all bad.
The happenings in the middle east will have an undue effect on the western world in the coming years and the midgets like Brownstuff and Dave will just stand idly around whilst the poor of the world pay the price for their ‘Levite passed by’ failings.
Malcolm
47.
Houston, you have a problem.
51 Yes - he should be banned again for being ungrateful!
47 Anne. It’s only the second week of January - the bad news for 2009 hasn’t even nearly begun yet. Look at the papers reaction to Darling having to admit his projections of only Nov were way out and interest rates approach zero. The Bank of England is printing money like its out of fashion. It’s going to get alot uglier soon. That can’t be good for Gordon.
54. Malcolm Two Names.
Seven posts out of 54 (13%) is a little excessive, don’t you think?
46. I know. If the Sun want to make predictions like that, they’d be better off praying in aid an astrologer than an opinion poll.
47. Not that I recognise your monicker but given it’s only just post Christmas it is hardly surprising there is little change to the polling figures.
56. Maybe we could compromise and welcome him back with open arms - providing he pledges to ration his use of exclamation marks?
At first I thought from the headline that the Tories had gained 7 more points. I found it rather misleading to say the least.
I’d have thought Labour will be over the moon to get out of Christmas into the New Year only 7 points behind. It suggests that come the spring when optimism and feel good generally increases they have every chance of narrowing the gap still further, or even regaining the lead.
38 Yokel
Many of us condemn the violent whatever their party - IRA, Serb and Croatian, Zanu PF or Hamas, Israeli Attack force or Bush and Blair, Chinese governments or Thatcherite police.
They all deserve condemnation; and whilst I can do little about their shameless behaviour I can keep speaking and annoying those who would rather look the other way.
Malcolm
Patrick you could be right but this is a very dire economic period with the news being dominated with economic woes and job losses. This is the time when George Osborne and David Cameron should be surging ahead and this is not happening.
54 Malcolm. You’ve lost me there mate.
Nine hundred thousandth.
How about prediction the date of the millionth in this year’s pb.com competition?
60. Wasn’t Anne the person who made a mysterious comment on the day of the Glenrothes by-election - which had already appeared word-for-word on the Scotsman boards under a different name?
Apologies if I’ve got that wrong, but I don’t think I have.
I have just been polled by ICM - but it was an economic confidence survey - not voting intention.
62 And the 95% whose jobs are O.K,of whom a significant chunk are on tracker mortgages will feel better ,coupled with falling fuel prices-I still say game on for a late spring/early summer GE
58
Fancy asking a question of a poster that you want to silence.
Malcolm
Malcom
You are entirely correct that it is the messenger not the messenger. This particular brand of pompous faux outrage was done first and more authentically by Roger during the IDF’s summer holiday in Lebanon in the summer of 2006.
Panurge
54 Malcolm,the poster at 30 is not the one at 69 (I was indulging my Eastenders -holicism at 7.51pm,GMT)
47. But again, if the Tories polled 41% I don’t believe Labour would poll 34%. A 41% share for the Conservatives would almost certainly see Labour down in the low 30’s, which gives Cameron a small, but workable majority.
63 - “I can keep speaking and annoying those who would rather look the other way.” - with your own shameless behaviour?
OT - any guesses on England Ashes captain. If Strauss loses to the hapless Windies, or loses form, it could be bad news for Kent next year with Graham Ford as coach and Rob Key as possible captain.
noone wants to silence you malc, I just think people dont warm to the repetetive nature of everything you post, day in day out.
re 67 Red Meteor well remembered. She was. She was cofidently recounted having heard from SNP workers at the count predicted an SNP majority of 5,000.
Unsurprising. Lib Dems probably underestimated (you won’t read that sentence very often :P).
Should expect this to stay as is for a little while then grow very gradually. Doubt it’ll reach silly bugger leads.
A lot of new Labour posters feel the need to put on fake smiles tonight.
73 I agree. The Lib Dems will get more than 15 and most of it will come from Labour.
62 RWH. Maybe I’m in turbo Eeyore mode today - don’t know. By the spring we will have 3 more months of no credit, X Million more job losses, the kick off a whole slew of taxes in April from the last budget, etc, etc. I really don’t think anything much is going to get prettier economically for many, many months.
22 - Yes I haven’t posted in a while for a number of reasons that revolve around lack of internet access and secondly being laid off just before Christmas.
80, sorry to hear that
Good luck finding new work.
61
I have been to Rovinj! Lovely place. Any reason for that link?
72 I am not new-I have posted since c.late summer 2005(I link this to the glorious summer of England regaining the Ashes) (I sometimes add smileys as I am prone to clinical depression and have quite a history of low-ish level neuroses/depression)
81 - Thanks! I think I need it as there seems to be a dearth of jobs.
62 It suggests that come the spring when optimism and feel good generally increases they have every chance of narrowing the gap still further, or even regaining the lead.
RWH I can feel a bet with you coming on here - I say that in Q2 (1.4.09 - 30.6.09) the Tories will maintain a lead of at least 7% over Labour with all the major pollsters (YouGov, IPSOS-Mori, ICM, Populus & ComRes. You say at least one such poll during this period will show a Tory lead of below 7%.
Shall we say an even money bet of £20, valid until midnight tonight and applies to you only?
80 Very sorry James.
Hope you find something soon.
Completely O/T but just watching the Change 4 Life TV advert…
And it is clear that whoever did the artwork didn’t bother to get the text proofed.
There is a shot of shops showing how easy life is for us now. One of those shops is labelled SOFA’S - clearly an apostrophe too far.
I know it is hardly earth-shattering, but you would think that someone would have spotted it before it went to air.
Ah well
81 very sorry to hear it. I hope you will find something very soon, meanwhile sign on immediately even if you wont get anything to protect your NI record.
87, could be worse. On Remembrance Sunday the BBC Pravda Channel showed veterans laying ‘reefs’.
Can we please LART the Sun for not including the standard rubric at the foot of their article?
47. 64. New Draperbot?
91. Or perhaps Draperbotte?
James sorry to hear of your job loss. Hope you get some good news soon.
85. That’s a brave bet, Peter.
87 As a former state grammar schoolboy,I could not agree more re today’s shocking lack of grammar -I work in a secondary modern school,and the level of grammar of some of today’s 14 year-olds is TERRIFYING!
78. Yes, a result of Con 42% Lab 32% Lib-Dem 18% has always seemed probable to me. This poll is very much in line with that expectation, assuming that Labour is being over stated a bit and the Libs understated. I’m confident that Cameron will finish up with a majority somewhere around 30-40.
88 - Yeah done that. It gives a different perspective on the whole credit crunch/recession. I think younger people are going to find this hard as they have no experience of bad times. The mantra of ‘no more boom and bust’ entered the public psyche and people thought they were immune from the consequences of their irresponsible behaviour.
94 I propose,in light of Peter’s appalling £4.05 for a pint experience,that a new, ‘Justice for drinkers in the borough of Wandsworth Party is launced-I am sure pub-goers from across the political spectrum could unite on this issue
63. I think you are lying.
I’d bet you turned the other cheek for 30 years when my country, and part of your country, was in a hole. If you have such dearly held views and compassion where were you eh? Hiding. It didnt suit you did it. Too close.
So thats the limit of your ambition, to be annoying. That kind of attitude is two to a penny. Far from being some rebel, standing up against the masses, standing up for whats right, your attitude sets you out as being as common as the rest of them, mediocrity of mind and mediocrity of action. There is no rebellion going on a polite little forum as this and tweaking people’s noses, there is certainly no bravery.
91.
Possible. Notice the undue weight on Osborne (and total disregard that Labour down seven is a loss).
On this poll:
Baxter: 317-279-24 (Con 9 short)
Wells: 313-282-26 (Con 13 short)
Me: 334-276-9 (Con maj 18)
[Embarrassing!]
On this poll:
Baxter: 317-279-24 (Con 9 short)
Wells: 313-282-26 (Con 13 short)
Me: 334-276-9 (Con maj 18)
82. Thought I might as well give my holiday snaps an outing (plus I earn about 0.0000000000001p a click). I did rather fear I might be asked to justify it at some point, though!
94 David - yes, on the face of it I agree, but I reckon by the end of March labour’s support will be nose-diving - anyway, we’ll see if RWH picks this up. I don’t lose many bets with fellow PBers it has to be said.
I wouldnt slag off the Sun’s predictions. There isnt another newspaper in the country that is as close to the pulse of your average Joe than it is.
Its also politically one of the most astute positioners in the UK media.
Also great sporting coverage.
David Roe you owe me a fiver…..
99. Yokel: So thats the limit of your ambition, to be annoying.
A self-admitted troll.
85. You’re on. Easy win for me!
All I need is one poll showing Tories under 7% in Q2? With Mandlesson around unless Labour really balls up I can’t fail to win!
This is a betting website, so the following comment is made in that context, without expressing any moral opinion one way or another.
There are elections in Israel in Feb 09.
I think that the Gaza situation strongly enhances the position of Livni; the election will be seen as a patriotic vote.
So that’s my “betting” opinion
As a personal and political opinion I think that Livni puts most other Western politicians in the shade
Back at 55.
104. Well actually, I think its a very good write up of what would happen if this was the final election result. Cameron would have enough to be able to form a minority administration and he would probabaly call a second election within months to try and secure a full majority. The Sun have done a good job of explaining the course of events.
The only problem is that I don’t believe this will be the final result.
91/2. Give the girl a chance. I don’t agree with her conclusion but it’s easy enough to see why someone would come to it - how many people have been banging on on here for months about how the economy will doom Brown? The economy is still tanking and the polls haven’t shifted. That requires explaining.
There are at least three reasons why Labour are maintaining a fairly healthy mid-30s showing.
Firstly, the public sector vote is likely to have been worried by the noises coming from the Conservatives about no longer committing to matching government spending. By contrast, Labour is still making noises about ploughing billions into extra spending. Those on the receiving end of the spend have an incentive to back the government.
Secondly, for those in relatively safe employment, or who are retired and living off a pension rather than savings, the cost of living has come down dramatically since the summer - petrol, mortgages etc. It might seem strange to talk of a feel-good factor but that doesn’t make it wrong.
Thirdly, politics is a relative game. People are comparing Brown and Darling’s apparent dynamism with Cameron and Osborne. The government is getting much more coverage but the Conseratives also look to have been caught a bit by the crisis and the public is not sure about whether they look like a better alternative. Those impressions will change over the next year as it becomes apparent whether or not the government’s plans have worked and as the Conservatives’ message becomes more focussed and tailored - and as the election gets nearer. The announcements on savings and tax indicate that the game is coming together on that score.
110 David,
Fourthly the BBC is the media arm of the Labour party and Sky is not much better, nor Channel 4. The Tories have an uphill struggle to get a fair hearing.
103. I think if the goverment do go ahead wit a big second injection, in particular to the banks then I think people will start to get really cheesed off. It has potential to be pivotal, a real big moment.
The Tories however need to improve their performance. Theycant depend on government unpopularity, they need to get greater cred and attack more, across a range of issues.
110 - I seriously believe Osborne needs to be moved. Perhaps he is brilliant, but he just comes across as a t*sser. Perhaps not his fault, but his party’s problem. A policy role for George.
Tories down 1pt.
Ozzie out.
107. You have a point Barry, Tipsy seems to have cred.
re 66. I’m hoping that comment number 1,000,000 will come on March 23rd - PB’s fifth birthday. That would be some achievement.
We are arranging a big party for that day or week.
103. You wouldn’t be up for £20 with me on the same basis?
104. Yes, but it’s still all based on one poll as much as 16 months out from the election. A few ‘if’s wouldn’t have gone amiss.
106. Just for clarity that’s under 7% poll lead not 7% total lol!!!
106. Just for clarity that’s under 7% poll lead not 7% total lol!!!
114 Behave yourself.
Another poll rolls by for my and Martin Coxall’s charity bet, with me on top…
120. No! I shan’t! What are you going to do about it Miss C? Another of your thrashings? Can I make a plea that you don’t involve Morris this time?
116 - Ooh a party. I hope I can afford to pop along!
Is it me or is there something wrong with the numbers, people seem to be responding to the wrong posts???
111. Sky is more neutral overall, but you guys suffer because Adam Boulton himself is a Labour man (albeit a very good political editor IMO)
117. Its not their job though. You wouldnt expect it. Its The Sun, bright colours, clearly defined statements is its business.
re 109 we had minority government for years in the 1970s
125 Bobajob. Indeed re Boulton - but overall there is just no political objectivity or balance on the TV, where I suppose most people get their info and which helps form their opinions.
“Tsvengirai is seven points ahead of Mugabe. The margin is not enough to guarantee Tsvengirai victory.”
You can say this about the opposition in the UK and what is the reaction? Snores. Yawn. ‘Oh, really? Fancy that?’ Of course, if it were the other way around and Brown was seven points in the lead but was probably unlikely to become the PM, every self-righteous berk in the land would be comparing the country to some banana republic.
Mugabe Brown. What will it take, then, to hoist this berk off of his throne?
122, you love it, you filthy socialist.
re 116 well we’ll need about 1350 posts a day.
130.
106 RWH - I’ve emailed PtP with details of our £20 even money bet (i.e. my offer and your acceptance). Please will you do likewise at: arklebar@talktalk.net to enable him to record it.
128. True - but it isn’t so long ago that the Government had completely lost the press and was blowing in the wind. Their media operation has improved immeasurably since Mandy and Campbell returned - and the fact that they are right back in this after 11 eleven years should worry the Tories.
Tories still favourite, but a Cammo cakewalk this ain’t.
123 At the party, it will be the duty of those still gainfully employed to keep the glasses charged of those less fortunate who are bearing the brunt of Gordon’s recession. (Subject to all two and a half million of ‘em not turning up for a freebie!)
134, the media have been insane ever since Brown took office. First he could do no wrong, then no right, and now we’re back where we started. Neither he nor Cameron have ever had a fair press.
The media in this country is just not good enough. That’s why I like pb.com, generally people can suspend their own prejudices more often than media types and are willing to look at detail and the big picture, rather than regurgitating press releases.
127. Technically, we also had minority government for a while in the 1990s and no-one even seemed to notice.
Malc. Don’t be put off. The only thing that counts for anything against the brutality that is the Israeli military machine is world public opinion. It doesn’t count for much but it’s better than nothing…..
On topic…looks to me like Cameron has peaked too early? For an opposition to be only 7% ahead at a time like this after the downturn tells me that the Tories have lost their way. Under other circumstances serious questions would be being asked about Cameron’s leadership by now.
117 David, sorry I can’t accommodate you on this occasion, I don’t like taking money off Tories! Seriously though, I know I have offered generous terms here, but I think it’s a bet I can win as the economy deteriorates seriously over the coming months.
135. What you want the employed people to be waiters?
133. Done Peter.
134. Yes Mandy is a master of the dark arts but you can’t polish a turd and he can only play the hand he’s got - and that hand is going to get way shittier very quickly.
126. I don’t expect it but I would prefer it!
140 - I will not wait on anyone.. I still have my sense of dignity. Although I’m wondering what it would fetch on ebay!
139
Is that another of your predictions Roger?
122. Domineering women, thrashings AND reference to a threesome - all in one post.
Quite an achievement - unless you’ve had practise.
146. Maybe Bobajob should be running Formula 1.
Any speculation on a Cameron reshuffle date?
147 Maybe he is!
147
Sally, are you really seeing that as post 122? its post 123 on my pc?
139. Fair enough. I tend to agree with you that the polls will move towards the Conservatives but if there’s a margin of error of 3% on most polls, you’ll need a fairly steady Tory lead of at least 13% over the three months to be confident of your bet coming in. That’s asking a lot as there’ll probably be at least one which tends towards rogueness in Labour’s favour in that time (as there’s likely to be the other way, too).
150. MTF, if a post of your gets caught in moderation, you end up seeing different numbers to other people. It’s happened to me once or twice before.
150. Bobajob’s subtle request for a damned good thrashing is 122 to me.
Re numbering.
Mike - is there any way in which the posts held up in moderation could be differently numbered so that those that are published straight off don’t change?
For example, if someone makes a post when the thread is 25 posts old which is cleared after another five have been published, at the moment, posts 26-30 become 27-31 and the delayed post becomes 26. Is it possible that the one held up either: gets published at the end of the thread (ie becomes 31 in the example) or slots in as a ‘point one’ (ie becomes 25.1) if chronological order is more important?
153. “Bobajob’s subtle request for a damned good thrashing is 122 to me.”
In that statement, is ‘122′ code for ‘offensive’?
1.5%??
Is that the Bank rate or LD share next time??
A bit of a disappointing poll, although with a 3% MOE the lead could be up to 10%. Certainly I thought it would be creeping into double figures with the non-stop doom and gloom reporting of the £ nearing parity with the euro on an almost daily basis in the lead up to xmas and over the holiday period. That and the woolworths closures.
155 Maybe code for ‘titillating’!
85. A Sir Humphrey would say - a *courageous* bet, minister.
156 - Ah, Ave it, I have missed you in my absence! But shouldn’t the numeric part of your cypher have been advanced by a value?
@121:
There’s a long time till June, Mr Job.
Don’t count your chickens…
156. Still after that Dr Who job huh? You’re time travelling again!
MTF. “Is that another of your predictions Roger?”
Because my predictions haven’t all been winners it doesn’t follow that the opposite will happen. Incidentally what does a Maggie fan find to admire in Cameron?
@159:
So you say, but I got THE PUNTER on my team.
Feel the burn, suckah.
@163:
No, but it tends to be a good first approximation.
re 138 Roger are you making a bold bid for last place again?
160 James: 15%??! OK thats about what they will get!
Certainly we need 15% interest rates - a proper return for honest hard working and diligent savers! The banks will lend then!!!
re 157 but petrol prices have been falling
146/147/149.
This is all getting rather racy!
(Thought I’d go sado for a change and inflict the harm of a terrible pun.)
161. I am counting nothing but the lash marks upon my behind.
167. Ave It - James is talking about your 08. It’s 09 remember!
155. 158. Ouch!
164
Roger, When I joined PB.com a couple of years ago, I had to choose a tag, I gave no thought at the time to its significance on this site (stupid me). I did think of abbreviating it to MTF, but I am happy to stick with it.
I greatly admired Mrs Thatcher and still do, but that doesn’t make me an ultra right wing fanatic). I am definitely right of centre though.
In terms of predictions Roger, in terms of a two horse race, I’d back the one you weren’t backing
167 - I believe you misunderstand me! Should you not now be ‘Ave it 09′?
171
Bobajob, Which offence were you thinking of if it wasnt a 122???
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_code
157. A 3% MOE puts the Tory lead at between 1% and 13%.
Lowest: Con 41-3=38; Lab 34+3=37. Con lead 1%
Highest: Con 41+3+44; Lab 34-3=31. Con lead 13%.
There’s still a 5% chance that the Tory lead lies outside that range.
Did somebody say Party?!
The plan is to have it on Monday 23rd March, at the NLC, since that will be exactly 5 years from the Site’s launch. There’s always an argument between having it midweek or at the weekend, but there are pros and cons all ways and what suits some doesn’t suit others: in the end we thought we may as well make it the exact anniversary date. Cost we estimate will be £25 per head to cover accomodation and food: cash bar.
If anybody has any strong views one way or the other, can they let me know?
arklebar@talktalk.net
Cheers.
171 174 Yes - keep forgetting!
TY!!!
PS Con gain Eastleigh!!!!
@175:
374B, illegal dumping?
DIRTY BOY.
@177:
Woohoo! I better get my posh frocks dry cleaned.
I’m pretty sure I owe somebody a drink. Can’t remember who.
180 - You can owe me a drink if you like…
180,
Wasn’t that me?
(worth a try …)
1. The margin isn’t enough for the Tories to win a majority on uniform swing, but I suspect the swing will favour the Tories in terms of seats. It is a good base to work from.
2. By itself it shows nothing. There should be a flock of polls coming out and by this time next week we will have a good indication of how things broadly stand (though I suspect they will reinforce this poll, but still it’s best to wait for some further cases).
3. There is now a constant trickle of bad economic news as the crisis hits the real economy. Woolworths, Wedgwood, Nissan shedding jobs, printing money (which sounds negative, even though probably economically correct). As this filters through into people’s personal lives the gap between perceived personal and national prospects will shrink and economic and voting sentiment will begin to go as last summer did. For Labour, that means down.
4. That notwithstanding, unless the Tories get more coherent they will hit a ceiling. Being opportunistic is the job of oppositions, being ineffectively opportunistic in the 3rd year of the 3rd term of a government presiding over a recession is very poor. There is only a maximum of 18 months until the next election. They need to start showing themselves as an alternative government. Thus far they are not.
175. 179.
459S - Silent burglar alarm
I always have been a useless get.
175,
Well, if it numerically follows an xyy format (122 not found), then it would have to be one of:
211 - Robbery
288 - Lewd conduct
311 - Indecent exposure
488 - Petty theft
(If I were you, Bobajob, I’d immediately plead guilty to petty theft)
104 - What for?
I need to save my pennies for my losing bet that someone would force the shameless speaker out by the end of this month
185. Is 488 (petty theft) considered a lesser transgression than 288 (lewd conduct)?
It may be.
It says that in some states you can technically be arrested for a 288 simply for sleeping with a girl that you haven’t married.
What sentence 50 lashes from the likes of Sally and (god forbid) Morris would carry in, say, Utah, doesn’t bear thinking about!
186, always dangerous betting on morality winning in a political situation.
187, I don’t lash. Permanent marks are generally a no-no. There are far worse things than that. Electric shocks, for example.
187 Fifty lashes from Sally…OMG, the thought!
177 - Woot, I should have that day off judging by my current rota
190,
Peter, I think you should go and have a cold shower right now.
192 just one?
@189:
My Dad has taught me loads of ways to torture and generally beat the crap out of people without leaving marks, lessons he learned courtesy of the Met during the 1970s when he was a teenager.
I wonder if they still practice the mattress method?
194, I heard that carpets were useful, although I can see how a mattress would work too.
Learnt that at school though. Think it was the biology teacher who taught us… or maybe DT.
195
Did somebody say mattress to Mr Lambert?. One of the GREAT monty python sketches
http://mzonline.com/bin/view/Python/BuyingABedSketch
Anyway, I’m off before bobajob tells us all how naughty he is and how he needs to be punished. Bye kids
Getting a bit racy on here tonight, and I am not talking about the Tories being in poll position.
Good first poll of the New Year from YouGov.
191 - If Fitaloon doesn’t object, I think Christina D would be ideal: after all, she’s a real live nurse!
(How embarrassing - she’s just posted!!!)
200. 201. Arf arf!
On the poll, this tallies with what many of us have said.If Brown wants a narrow defeat, he goes ASAP. If he carries on, Labour get totalled.
202- john o- serves you right old boy
Cheers folks, a pleasure (pain?) as always.
Bye for now.
Totally OT, some bread and butter politics for the incoming president
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090108/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_taxes
You could just geta tin bucket,pop it over someones head and bang it constantly. No bruising but the negative effect on someones orienrtation and general feeling of wellbeing can be surprising.
re 139. Roger - Cameron is actually doing better than Blair at this stage.
When Blair took over in July 1994 Labour’s ICM share was 44%. This far out before the election - January 1996 - Labour was on 48% - just four points up.
In the ICM poll immediately before Cameron took over the Tories were on 33%. He’s now doing between 5 and 12 point up from the same pollster.
203- sums the polls situation very well David. Major never had that choice. Go early and get trounced. Go long and get trounced.
Brown had to do the decent thing to bring the 2013 election into play.
One point on “quantitive easing” that will surely factor into voters minds and further reduce ZNL’s poistion, is that Brown & Darling have already been doing it for a year.
John Redwood mentioned it this morning on Radio 4 and its on his blog - printed money supply alone is 10% up year on year, let alone the additional £140bn sitting on the Bank of England’s balance sheet.
If things are considered bad now, just wait 6 months
One of the funniest articles of the year, enjoy the memories!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7809160.stm
204 - Too true, but stick to nurse for fear of something worse…many moons ago, Roger called me the pbc Tory Chief Whip. But that’s before we got it together at the Big Party.
Re 209. It’s worth reading what Redwood has to say about ‘quantative easing’.
http://johnredwood.com/
201.”(How embarrassing - she’s just posted!!!)”
JohnO, save your blushes, as a former nurse I could have you in stitches with some of the crackers I have seen and heard.
213 - You MUST TELL ALL. A nation demands the truth…
210 - I still think the Press corps dinner he did with his impersonator was funny and showed that he can laugh at himself!
203.”On the poll, this tallies with what many of us have said.If Brown wants a narrow defeat, he goes ASAP. If he carries on, Labour get totalled.”
That has been pretty much the situation since he bottled that Autumn GE in 2007. That really did damage him in the longer term.
214.Lets just say my favourite was as a recovery nurse after a patient had a vasectomy, the whole theatre staff collapsed laughing over that one. And not far behind were one or two dads to be when I did my stint at the maternity unit during my training. Sorry lads, but most of the laughs came from the male population.
215.I liked the Laura Bush speech where she claimed she was a desperate housewife.
I see that both Ben Brogan and John Rentoul are making up for their festive blogging absence.
John Rentoul on the The recession in which no one gets hurt
217 - She frequently has the look of someone who wishes she had said no!
207. It’s a slightly odd comparison though, is it not Mike? The law of diminishing returns would surely suggest that a major party on 44 per cent can gain less from a new leader than one on 33.
219.
When is Question Time and This Week back?
220.Not at all, it shows just how well Cameron has done since he came to the leadership. Mike makes a good point.
209. Am I missing something or is printing money actually a fairly sound plan given the deflationary pressures we are under?
re 220. don’t agree. Remember that Blair opened on 44% and on election day in 1997 Labour got 44%.
I’ll bet a huge sum that Cameron’s Tories will do a lot better than the 33% they started on.
223 The definition of a ’sound plan’ being something that’s never worked out well before?
re 223. It might be but it won’t go down well with the Daily Mail!!
Front Pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages-For-Friday-January-9-2009/Media-Gallery/200901215199945?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15199945_Newspaper_Front_Pages_For_Friday%2C_January_9%2C_2009
Interestingly the interest rate cut is only the main headline for the Tory/LabourGraph.
223 - Didn’t do the Japanese much good when they tried it in the 90’s!
@223:
It may be the right thing to do when all else fails, but it smacks of desperation, so you can’t reasonably expect anyone to be happy about it.
178- Peter- I think for purists sake that we should have the party in North Oxford and the closest pub to Lonsdale Rd, Summertown, where this site was born.
And as luck may have it that would be one of my locals. Result!
222. Does it though? Really?
If you apply that logic, had Cammo taken over with the Tories on, say, 20, and he got them up to 32, he’d have had done equally as well as he has in reality, in that the Cammo bounce would be 12 points.
If he has taken the Tories from 36 to 40, under your and Mike’s logic he’d have actually done worse than he has in reality, only a Blair-style bounce of four points.
Yet the second scenario would, in fact, be much better for the Tories, because both major parties have a ceiling of about 45 per cent.
Am I missing something?
What’s this in the Independent about a poll of businessman?
Evening all.
Not much to remark on in this poll, for which the fieldwork was done too close to the New Year to mean very much. I anticipate that the gradual loss of Labour support from its current peak in the mid-thirties will start gathering momentum in polls published around the end of Jan/early Feb, as the bills come in and the job losses become more immediate to people.
I see Boris has had problems with the C-charge
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7817530.stm
@231:
Yes, you’re failing to remember typical historical swings, and that to even get a Tory majority of 1, Dave needs to pull off an electoral swing the likes of which are virtually unprecedented in UK political history.
That the spread markets still believe Dave can do it is a testament to quite how successful he’s been.
Yes Red Meteor and Chris I did get it wrong at Glenrothes, you shouldn’t take the word of some people as gospel. I wasn’t alone in my prediction though!
224. Still not getting this. I’d rather someone came in and held 44 per cent than bounced 33 to, say, 39 and still lost.
Holding 44 is better than bouncing 33 to 39.
When you consider all the gloom-n-doom, (bordering on the hysterical in some cases) Labour must be pretty pleased to be on 34%. My prediction of NOM is looking pretty good.
231 Bobajob “Am I missing something?”
Yes, Bob. You’re missing the obvious fact that Cameron has taken the party from being no-hopers to being clear favourites in a remarkably short time.
@234:
I don’t know what he means by ‘when the technology comes in’.
The tech to do what he suggests would have existed when the C-charge was created.
223.”209. Am I missing something or is printing money actually a fairly sound plan given the deflationary pressures we are under?”
But how will the very notion of having to print money go down with the electorate, it does not inspire confidence in the government at this point.
And the all important grey vote have long memories, could be very damaging if the comparisons with the last Labour government gain some traction with them in particular, especially if we see lots of reminders of the late 70’s. And this group are suffering as they see their hard earned savings and pensions losing out very badly already.
229- Coxall- am still trying to get over your moral relative bullcrap the other day. Basically those with the strength can dictate what is wrong is right. Kind of leads one to mein kampf don’t you think? One of the most stupid posts I have ever read, and I have read a few here.
@242:
Tyson, you can’t wave such an obvious Godwin around and expect either to be taken seriously or get anything other than a contemptuous response, surely?
The fact that the Conservative party could poll 41% to Labour’s 34% and not win a majority in the House of Commons whilst Labour could poll under 40% and win a large majority speaks volumes for the way the electoral system is stacked against the Conservative party. It still amazes me that over a third of those polled would still vote Labour; are they that brainwashed by the BBC/Labour alliance or has Gordon Brown successfully built a large enough number of state dependants to almost assure a Labour victory at any election?
223 - The problem is that printing cash has to be done very very carefully. On the flip side too much caution, like some say the Japanese, and it doesn’t work either.
Given the track record of the difficult decisions in the past few years, personally the word sensible isn’t one I would use to describe Brown when it comes to policy matters. Everything appears to be solely for political gain, 10p tax and the VAT cut being prime examples. The 10p tax has ended up costing more to “put right” (and still people worse off) and the VAT cut is just money down the drain.
So why should we have confidence that Brown won’t meddle with the money printing scheme (I assume calculated by Treasury / BOE) just to look better for an election?
If somebody said Darling was in charge of this scheme I might have more confidence as he does appear to be fairly sensible manager type and somebody who probably listens to expert advice. However we know that won’t be the case.
Conservatives in Bury make a complete hash of making all their staff redundant .
http://richardbaum.mycouncillor.org.uk/2009/01/08/equal-pay-redundancy-letters-recalled-the-biggest-tory-cock-up-yet/
re 242. Tyson - I was appalled by your comments on baldies the other day. Getting male pattern baldness is something in your genes and for you to use it as a form of abuse says a lot about you.
You are obviously deeply insecure about something.
225/226/229. The Daily Mail doesn’t like a lot of things though - that doesn’t mean we should get down to them, so to speak.
It might be just be the ivory tower economic theory of my youth but the textbooks would say that printing money when deflationary pressures are strong *is* the right thing to do.
That doesn’t mean it will work of course - economics is not a science.
@244:
Nearly 50% of adults in the UK are dependent on the state for at least 70% of their income.
Does that explain it?
Thanks to everyone who has recently visited my blog. The number of viewings has exceeded 2,350 in the last 3 weeks since I started it:
http://richardwillisuk.wordpress.com
re 248. But is it good politics? I think not.
245 - Should have also added the stamp duty changes as something else that was put together for headlines, losing more of little income is coming via SD, and is making absolutely no difference at all.
re 250 Oh no - not another Benedict.
@247:
You know that’s the second time I’ve seen you berate Tyson for his baldism.
Yet, the fact that he thinks we should all be living aneolitihic hunter-gatherer lifestyle in caves and that supporting Israel makes you a Nazi seems to pass without comment, however.
So, who’s the insecure one?
235. Yes, just to be clear, I’m not saying that he hasn’t been successful in making the Tories electable again - just that comparing Blair’s bounce to Cammo’s bounce is rather unwise given that Labour was almost at its ceiling anyway when TB took over.
244
Ahem! Dependant (noun) a person who is kept or supported financially by another.
Dependent adj. dependent on or upon something or someone.
so the correct usage is dependent.
Tomorrow’s Sun on the printing plan
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/article2112157.ece
Anyway, what has happened to Martin Day?
Has been employed? Spontaneously combusted? One yellow card too many for the fourth official’s liking?
244 NotaSheep “The fact that the Conservative party could poll 41% to Labour’s 34% and not win a majority in the House of Commons whilst Labour could poll under 40% and win a large majority speaks volumes for the way the electoral system is stacked against the Conservative party.”
Actually, it speaks volumes for the way that the electoral system in a poor representer of overall opinion in the country. Ask the Liberal Democrats - they suffer even worse under this systems.
Squirrels against Tories.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1109709/To-blazes-Squirrels-blamed-hour-MPs-home.html
243- no,no Coaxall= you are not getting away that easily.
You made the point that the person who had morality on their side could do what pretty much what they want, no matter the casualties. After all they are right.
Does might equal right? Seems pretty much what Israel think.
If Israel is more moral than Hamas then are all it’s actions justified? Are the actions of US soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan justified?
In every war the stronger army claims morality (and often religion), yet the loser tends on the whole to be weaker.
244. It is quite astounding … that given the fact that the system favours Labour the Tories haven’t clicked and started calling for PR.
I am proud to admit I resisted the temptation to caption the tenner with ‘crashing’ based on the information in the side column
Though I am ashamed to admit it crossed my sick mind!
262 - Why in God’s name would they do the one thing that would guarantee that the most influence is wielded by the least supported party?
@259:
Interesting that the Tories remain a staunch defender of non-proportional voting, even when it apparently works against us?
Anyone would think our opposition was based on what we think is right, rather than short-term political gain.
What a naive and outmoded concept.
262 - Because we believe FPTP to be a sounder way of electing a government, rather than just looking at our narrow self-interest. I think the fact that we have never wavered in this is a good thing and proves we are not as short-termist as some people might think.
230 Tyson
Perhaps we could have a Sattelite Party there with pictures beamed in to the main event on The Embankment.
The dominant Tory councillors in Bury appear to be singularly incompetent. Do we not have a former regular poster on PBC who could throw more light on the situation?
re 221 probably next week when the parliamentary shirkers return.
260. The rank and file of the the rodent arsonists were found to work for BBC News. A slightly tubby accomplice wad found to work for Sky. Their evil ring-leader, a rather snooty squirrel with his own getaway driver, operates from a large country pile and has a very senior post at the Daily Mail.
A number of other squirrels were found to work at the Daily Telegraph - they rose the alarm making it look as if they were on the side of Lord Mayhew. However, on further investigation, it turned out that they were complicit in starting the blaze and the call to fireman was a simple cover-up.
re 236 but Anne I’m afraid that Google Blogs will be feeling your collar about that one for evermore.
265. Fair enough - nice riposte. FWIW, I came to the conclusion long ago that PR is completely unworkable, and indeed less democratic than FTPT as it confers an inordinate amount of power in fringe parties who stand to become kingmakers…
{lights yellow touch paper and retires}
257, 263 Great headline to that article, David!
Seriously, I think that articles like this may be pretty toxic for Brown. Even though the article itself is pretty sober (“The result will be inflation… But the Government reckons this is better than the alternative – deflation – because economists say falling prices mean falling investment and rising unemployment.”), the image that comes across to the casual reader will be that Brown is leading us into a Zimbabwe-like economic catastrophe. Just look at the pictures!
As Mike says - very dangerous politics.
265. Fair enough - nice riposte. FWIW, I came to the conclusion long ago that PR is completely unworkable, and indeed less democratic than FPTP as it confers an inordinate amount of power in fringe parties who stand to become kingmakers…
{lights yellow touch paper and retires}
266. Fair enough. See 274.
re 257 I thought the German hyperinflation happened before 1929 and not after.
Ah well, I suppose that you can’t expect much better of the Sun and political history.
266 David Roe “Because we believe FPTP to be a sounder way of electing a government…”
In your view, why is it sounder? (This only is a gentle inviation for you to expand your views to a friendly audience, by the way)
267- very good le punter.
And on that note off to take Comrade Trotsky for a walk.
Ciao Comrades
258. He’s been spotted blogging on Iain Dale’s site I hear. He must have finally flipped
@277:
I don’t think FPP is particularly sound, btw, but it is superior to all proportional systems for the Commons.
mike - martin d is claiming on iain dale’s site that he’s still blocked from pb.com!
253 - hehe thanks Mike!!! I have a link on my blog to yours too
280 - No system is perfect, but most PR systems have glaring imperfections, not the least of which giving more power to the politicos in the squalid backroom coalition negotiations than the people in the ballot box.
273. But probably the right thing to do given that inflation is heading south to a dangerous 1 per cent by the autumn.
The day the government starts running monetary policy to please the Sun and the Daily Mail we might as well all emigrate as neither organ has the foggiest understanding of economics.
260. 270
Red ones on doubt.
We usually do well with with greys.
250. I’ve been typing in richardwilliesuck and getting nowhere.
284 - Neither does this government!
283. Well said - FPTP is as, you, say by no means perfect but it’s probably the least worst system.
277 - I really can’t go into this in depth while I’m at work as it would take some time, but I like our constitency system and the fact that we tend to replace one majority government with another and we don’t end up with messy coalitions which I tend not to like. I’m sure someone else (at home maybe) can write a longer critique of the electoral system!
286. I actually reckon Darling isn’t a bad chancellor and comes across as quite clued up - it’s when Brown gets political with the purse strings that things go awry. Shame really - a brighter pairing would have borrowed more and actually built roads and railways rather than giving gimmicky VAT cuts away to please the likes of the Sun and Mail (which it didn’t do anyway)
@287:
As it happens, I reckon we could do quite a bit better by switching to AV, or maybe even a French two-round run-off system.
He heard them shouting “Baldy!” as he drove right down their street,
When he realised that they meant his tyres, he got back in his seat.
285. Very good.
276 - Actually that’s bad, I’ve took it back it should be OK by the time it gets to the newsstands
290. AV is worth considering. What about MMC (multi member constituency)?
Ooh I feel a geek fest coming on!
289 - One does wonder when Darling will finally have enough of only getting to do half the job and having the boss make all the mistakes etc.
@294:
Multi-member STV would be fine for local government and maybe senate elections, but it throws away its chief advantages for commons elections.
No, single-member AV for the commons.
290 - At last you and RodNazi, der Fuehrer von Crosby, find common ground.
@297:
Just what I’ve always wanted. Now to start practising my goose-step.
294 - I think that the problem isn’t necessarily FPTP for HoC but the fact that the executive is drawn from the legislature so it tends to render any election system more flawed. Maybe we should consider having a separate executive and a directly elected PM?
295. Indeed. I often find myself feeling a tad sorry for AD. He always strikes me a decent bloke as well, it can’t be much fun in the job.
298 - Fear not, he’s just made his last territorial demand….in Bootle.
283 James Burdett. “No system is perfect, but most PR systems have glaring imperfections, not the least of which giving more power to the politicos in the squalid backroom coalition negotiations than the people in the ballot box.”
I hate these “squalid backroom coalition negotiations” as much as you do, but they are not exclusive to PR any more. Like it or not we are no longer in a two-party system (Where FPTP works best), but a multi-party system. With the rise of the Liberal Democrats and Nationalist Parties in recent years we are heading for NOM even with FPTP. (We already have parties working together at council level, and in regional assemblies).
Once NOM starts to become the norm, then you might as well have the relative strengths of the parties proportionate to their actual support in the country. You can still retain the constituency link for MP’s - like Germany, for example.
And while we are about getting Parliament more representative of the voters, lets have more women, more working-class people, more people who have not made a CAREER out of politics, and FEWER lawyers!
300 - Yeah, apparently he’s a really decent bloke, too. Not that that is necessarily important, but he does come accross well to me and I am not exactly Mr Nu Lab.
296. 297. That’s the key flaw with AV - it means you agree with Rod HH Crosby.
The same problem applies to forecasting a hung parliament at the GE - regardless of the inviting mathematics I simply find it impossible to do.
No significant change from trend, Tories most likely about 5.5% ahead.
Probabilistic forecast
Con 292
Lab 286
LD 36
Nats 15 (SNP on 30.7%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Con 31 short, Lab 37 short
@302:
I think we should wait until after the next GE before declaring ourselves to no longer be a two-party system.
One word: CLEGGLULZ.
302. (We already have parties working together at council level, and in regional assemblies).
That’s probably the strongest argument against coalition. No overall control in councils is a nightmare - the whole system of local government needs wide-ranging reform and we can start by having mayors for big cities on proper boundaries…
re 293 Oh my God, I’ve sub-edited a Sun article!
305. Have you been lurking all along Rod until someone alluded to your “unfashionable” views on the holocaust?
306. Yeah Cheryl Cole will shake the inner Labour voter out of all those Liberal fence sitters and they’ll be back down to 12 per cent….
302. “Once NOM starts to become the norm, then you might as well have the relative strengths of the parties proportionate to their actual support in the country. You can still retain the constituency link for MP’s - like Germany, for example.”
Take your point here however.
Anyway - night all.
309. I’m too busy to lurk, and I only ever quote the ‘unfashionable views’ of specifically Jewish ‘Holocaust deniers’, so I guess I’m fireproof.
@313:
Rod, do you agree with the sentiment shown here?
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/pictures/20081229NYDeathJuice.jpg
314. I agree with the sentiment that people should learn to spell!
314 - Please…don’t interrupt him. He’s busy, as he says, doubtless feverishly working on the final solution for Gaza.
Digby goes off plan again.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1110005/Former-trade-minister-Lord-Digby-Jones-says-VAT-cut-going-work.html
316 - Isn’t Olmert already on that one?
Rod, using your figures at post 305 as a base, what do you think the result would be (roughly) under AV instead of FPTP?
Enormous spoon Stephen Green goes off on another mental at the ASA over the Atheist Buses:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7818980.stm
Richard Dawkins said that “the lovely thing about people like Stephen Green is that they’re so much fun to ignore”. Heheheh.
317 - More issues with GOATS… couldn’t happen to a nicer PM!
320 - I love these arguments between atheists and theists.
236. Anne Houston - “Yes Red Meteor and Chris I did get it wrong at Glenrothes, you shouldn’t take the word of some people as gospel. I wasn’t alone in my prediction though!”
Hmm…you certainly weren’t alone, given that someone with a different name posted exactly the same ‘prediction’ - word-for-word identical - on the Scotsman boards earlier the same day. In fact, anyone would think you’d done it yourself.
Anyone can make an honest mistake, but if you’ll forgive me, what I was getting at is that it didn’t strike me as beingquite such an honest mistake. The game you’re playing is pretty obvious - the only remaining question is are you a freelance or a drone?
Got back late tonight and early start, so only a brief comment. The poll looks plausible - it’s in line with (FWIW) my prediction here yesterday extrapolating from canvass data (5-9%). Do we know the sample dates?
Aside from canvassing, I’ve been doing a big survey of constituents, which they have to send in, so in no sense a balanced sample. I’ve asked about who’s bes tto deal with the credit crunch as well as voting intention. It’s interesting, and capable of more tan one interpretation, that a lot of voters for both Labour and Tories think that neither party is able to deal with it. My guess, for what it’s worth, is that the public doesn’t have that much faith in anyone, and poll movements may be less influenced by economic news than we have tended to assume.
Night all!
321 It would have been nice if he’d been vocal BEFORE rather than after.
This is a big issue for Brown. With an estimated 1 billion of the 12.5 billion being spent - it gives scope for internal sceptics like Field to be seen to demand a rethink when Parliament resumes.
@322:
The important thing about Stephen Green to remember is not that he’s a Christian, but that he’s a total fruit-loop.
319. a toughie, since there are so many unknowns in the splits of second prefs, and indeed in the proportion of voters who would express a 2nd pref at all (very important, under Scottish STV this is only about 60%, IIRC)
But… if LD and Others’ prefs split equally between Lab/Con, and 70% overall express a 2nd pref, then one plausible outcome (probabilistic) might well be…
Con 281
Lab 287
LD 48
Nats 13
Oth 3
NI 13
Lab 36 short, Con 42 short, LD kingmakers
326 - there are so many fruit loops in the evangelical/charismatic wings of the Christian church that it is worrying
I have seen them in operation and it is effectively a cult
very dangerous
Given we seem to have a rate change practically every month these days. Here’s a little quiz (and no cheating)
How many times did the Bank of England change the base rate in the 18th century?
Well I’ve always been against PR, but when you see polls like this it really brings it hope just how shockingly inadequate our electoral system is. In any other country a 7% lead would be enough to give a party a landslide victory, yet in this country we see that a 7% Tory lead will leave them struggling to form a majority. That just isn’t right or fair. It seems to me that the only party that benefits from FPTP is Labour - What do the Conservatives have to fear by advocating a change in the electoral system? Surely they can’t get any more disavantaged than they are now?
It’s been mathematically proven that no voting system can meet all the requirements we might naively want a good system to meet, so all we can do is choose flaws.
In many PR systems there are right circumstances where getting more votes causes a party to lose a seat rather than winning it, which is definitely undesirable, though it might never happen in practice.
329. Never?
329 - Once?
“Meanwhile, business leaders are losing faith in Gordon Brown following a brief jump in his popularity during the autumn, a separate poll for The Independent newspaper will say on Friday.
The paper will say that a ComRes poll had 28 percent of respondents expressing support for Brown, down from 42 percent in October, according to a copy seen by Reuters.
Meanwhile only 16 percent had confidence in Finance Minister Alistair Darling, a drop from 25 percent over the same period.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssTechMediaTelecomNews/idUSLD58685920090108
The Economist on the US Economy : a nightmare for Barack Obama
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=12903453
…the real problem is that the first baby-boomers retired last year. In coming decades spending on entitlements—the three main ones being Social Security (pensions), Medicare (health care for the elderly) and Medicaid (health care for the poor)—will drive deficits and so debt up sharply. Publicly held debt will climb from 41% of GDP last year to 54% next year, the CBO predicts, then decline (on the assumption that the recession will start to come to an end). But the CBO has previously said that, as America ages and if current policies continue, it could theoretically hit an otherworldly 400% by mid-century.
The situation sounds like a nightmare for Barack Obama. The figures hang over his negotiations with Congress on a fiscal stimulus plan. As currently envisioned, it would include business and individual tax cuts and, for those who pay little or no tax, tax credits. That would include a $500 per worker or $1,000 per household credit that was a centrepiece of Mr Obama’s campaign. It would include substantial funds for public works spending, additional Medicaid funds and other aid for cash-strapped states, and money to broaden the availability of unemployment insurance and provide health benefits to the unemployed. On January 7th Mr Obama said the package would be at the high end of estimates—which his team had previously pegged at $675 billion to $775 billion over two years—but not as high as some economists have urged.
…
Well at that rate the next one will get there with twice!
In Jul 1716 it dropped it from 4.5% to 4%
In Apr 1791 it raised it to 5% and kept it there for 103 years.
@334:
Ouch! Will this poll have a headline voting intention question, do we know?
re 336 oops slipped finger - it was in Apr 1719 when it raised it
329 - A little research shows that in 1716 Bank rate was cut to 4% from 4.5%. In 1719 it was raised to 5% where it stayed until 1822. So the answer is in fact twice!
338- Presumably in response to the South Sea Bubble anf French Rentes crisis.
331. Some studies have hypothesised that it would occur about 1% of the time, say 6 or 7 seats at every election.
But split votes routinely “cause” parties to lose more seats than that under FPTP, and FPTP also permits the election of a candidate who would lose in a head-to-head with every other candidate…
331. “In many PR systems there are right circumstances where getting more votes causes a party to lose a seat rather than winning it”
I’m struggling to think what those circumstances would be. I do recall panicking when the SNP gained Argyll and Bute in the 2007 Holyrood election, but the problem there was not that the SNP might lose a seat, but that there would be an extra seat available on the Highlands and Islands list that could have gone to Labour (in the event it didn’t).
334. 16% of respectable buisness leaders actually have confidence in Darling? Makes you wonder what planet these people are living on!
O/T Some tennis selections I am backing:
Brisbane: Verdasco to beat Mathieu 2-1 in sets @ 10/3 with betdirect.com and bet365.com
Verdasco has won all 4 matches but they’ve all actually been close affairs. He has the psychological edge and impressed me in his last two sets against Serra. Both players look in good nick, but the formbook says Verdasco in 3. MATCH STARTS in 30 mins time at 12.30AM.
Qatar: Murray to lose the first set and win against Federer @ 6/1 with paddypower.com. Murray has a 4-2 lead agaist Federer and of those 4 wins, he’s lost the first set before storming back to take the match. This never say die attitude has meant this seemingly unlikely occurance has has taken place in 50% of their six matches. Normally I wouldn’t touch this type of bet, but 6/1 looks good value for this particular match-up. Match scheduled for 2.30pm tomorrow.
Chennai: I’m recommending a double on Granollers to beat Dlouhy with Hills (use the PB link if you can) at 1/2 along with Karlovic to beat Dev Varman 2-0 in sets at 4/6. The double works out at 6/4.
Dlouhy is in the quarters as a result of Davydenko’s withdrawal and has not played since Monday, so will not in top match condition. Dlouhy has only beaten 2 players in the top 100 in the last 2 years and they were ranked 99 and 92. Granollers is 55 in the world and picked up his maiden ATP title last year. He should be just too good and should be backed.
Karlovic is serving well and has yet to be broken this week. He has hit 24 aces with no double faults in four sets of tennis and should be so hard to break. A tiring and ageing Moya allowed Dev Varman back into the previous round’s match, but the Indian home favourite does not possess the game to beat the Croat and I can’t see him taking a set at all. First match scheduled for 11.30am tomorrow.
@341:
AV doesn’t respect the Condorcet criterion[1] either, though, Rod.
If you’re a Condorcet fundamentalist, rather than AV, maybe we should be looking at the Schulze method[2]? Though a vote counting system that’s less old than the current government and deeply rooted in set theory probably looks seriously scary to norms.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_criterion
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schulze_method
327 Thanks Rod. So AV makes a difference, but not a huge one. Hmmm. What a fascinating result it would be if the LD’s really were kingmakers. I wonder which way theu would jump?
Fred Phelps makes Stephen Green look like, well, Richard Dawkins!
I think Cameron should be bold on constitutional reform. The Tory manifesto should pledge;
A referendum on introducing a form of PR.
A fully elected House Of Lords.
Scrapping of ID cards.
Sorting out the “West Lothian Problem”
Term limits of 4 years between general elections.
I see no reason why the Tories shouldn’t be the party of constitutional change. In most other areas they will be playing it safe, but in this area they could do some really radical stuff.
341, Many PR systems permit election of candidates who’d lose in head-to-heads too. it tends to happen when the population have cyclic preferences.
342. It’s called non-monotonicity.
Election A
Lab 40
Con 32
LD 28
(LDs split equally giving Labour victory by 54:46)
Election B (Tory swing to Labour, LDs unaffected)
Lab 45
LD 28
Con 27
(Cons split 25:2 in favour of LDs, giving LDs victory by 53:47)
Labour increased their votes but lost the seat. If 1.5% of Labour voters could have been persuaded to vote “tactically” for the Tory, Labour would have won comfortably…
348 - Maybe, but we have had more than a decade of constitutional tinkering!
Fred Phelps does not really deserve to be viewed as a member of the human race
I don’t think I have ever encountered a more twisted family
(I researched his activities when directing a production of The Laramie Project - and am still shocked at the perversity of his ‘theology’)
I don’t think it is over-stepping the mark to describe him as evil
345. You’re confusing the Condorcet Criterion with the Condorcet Loser Criterion, which AV does respect….
@352:
http://www.godhatesshrimp.com/
342, there’s an example of a voting ssytem failing this way at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monotonicity_criterion
How often it would occur in practice is debated, but it’s certainly not the kind of behaviour we’d expect from an ideal voting system. The problem is that there aren’t any.
350. Rod, isn’t your example AV rather than PR? (Sorry if I’m being thick and missing the whole point.)
@353:
I wasn’t, I was just forgetting about it. However, the Schulze method satisfies both the Condorcet criterion and the Condorcet loser criterion, which surely makes it superior to AV which only satisfies one?
345. Schultze is mind-bogglingly complex to count, and fails the later-no-harm criterion, which should be the sine qua non of any preferential system…
Ha Ha! Silly tories wet their nickers laughing when Germany criticised our policies to stimulate spending. But, Germany’s prosperity was built on everybody else’s debt. Now look…
“Germany hit by sharpest drop in exports since 1969″
“Abandoning previous scepticism about “crass” Keynesianism, the Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats and her Social Democratic (SPD) partners have also been trying to agree on a new stimulus package, amounting to €50bn. Mrs Merkel faces elections in September.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/germany-hit-by-sharpest-drop-in-exports-since-1969-1242624.html
351. Yes James, and what a mess its left behind. Labour have been constitutional vandals. Doing stuff that only benefits them and to hell with everything else. The mess Labour has made has got to be sorted out and Cameron should be radical about it while he’s doing it. Then perhaps we can get back to decent governance again.
338 So, ChrisA, in those days being a member of the MPC was quite a cushy number, yes?
@358:
Later-no-harm doesn’t bother me especially.
Complex counting systems are, to my mind, a plus, because if fewer people understand the system, fewer will attempt to gain it.
The thing that rules Schulze out for me is that it only seems feasible to count it electronically, and that’s a big no-no.
357 The only trouble is, Martin, that if you referred the average voter to the wikipedia page that describes the Schulze method, they would have the screaming ab-dabs.
I am a professional programmer, but when I looked at the Pascal-like pseudocode for the Implementation algortihm, even i blanched.
I don’t dispute it’s merits, but we need something the Mr Joe Bloke can understand.
356. Quite, AV is not PR, but my response was in answer to someone who conflated them.
Sorry, should have made that clear.
360 - Yeah I agree, but the problem is that Labour in opposition could apply their governmental standards to the decision process of Cameron etc. Which would lead to decades of tit-for-tat constitutional ping-pong!
@363:
I dispute that. I doubt that Wee Jock McBloke of Scotland understands droop quotas, the d’Hondt procedure, fractional redistribution or any of that other exciting geeky stuff, but he was still perfectly able to vote in Scottish parliamentary and local elections.
One should not need to grok how your vote is counted in order to know whom you wish to vote for.
“Brown goes from boom to bust”
“According to the ComRes poll of 200 business leaders, they trust David Cameron and George Osborne more than Mr Brown and Mr Darling. The Tories’ “confidence ratings” are 46 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively. Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, enjoys a higher confidence rating (41 per cent) than Mr Darling and Mr Osborne. But Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, trails Mr Brown and Mr Cameron on just 11 per cent.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-goes-from-boom-to-bust-1242579.html
366. There has to be some trade-off between efficacy and complexity, else people may lose confidence in the system, if we are left with “black-box” voting. Particularly if the overall result is not in any event intended to be proportional (as is the case of single-member Schultze.) Lord knows, a lot of voters seemingly find FPTP difficult to understand, judging by election results
Schultze (and other esoteric systems) are not used anywhere in public elections, and the chance of it being adopted anywhere anytime soon is zero…
366 I accept your point about voting in Scotland - it is a good one.
I am an old fogey. Can you tell me what is this verb “to grok” is it some slang that you young whippersnappers use these days?
(Maybe picked up from some “beat combo” or other, no doubt)
Good evening!
“He wants to, yet he doesn’t. Will Brown do a Callaghan?”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/09/election-timing-gordon-brown
Have you seen this fab Uncyclopedia article on STV?
http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/Single_Transferable_Vote
350 I always wondered why, in transferable vote systems, transferred second and third votes are counted as “1″. Surely my second and third choice candidates are less preferred by me and should be weighted as such, even when transferred?
366 But you might want to vote tactically, and thus need to understand how the voting/counting system will work for any given ranking of candidates.
366. Actually the voting in the Scottish elections were rife with “errors” by voters who did not understand the system
369 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stranger_in_a_Strange_Land#Literary_significance_and_criticism
It’s actually a word used by old fogey baby-boomer hippies.
With that, off to bed…
370. He’ll hang on to the very end. Savouring every last moment of the power he plotted and schemed in order to weild. Guys like Gordon Brown don’t risk losing power unless they are forced to. May 2010 is when he’ll be forced to give it up, he’ll not go before.
369. Grok
http://catb.org/jargon/html/G/grok.html
@369/376:
Grok is by no means a new word, but it has only semi-recently escaped its geek enclave.
375 - It must be an agonising decision. I suspect he wants to pull off a Major in 1992. The problem being that Major had a shorter run in to the last date so holding on until almost the last moment was a viable option. Also he had a big problem (Poll Tax) that could deflect attention from the economic woes. Brown doesn’t have that so waiting to the last minute can be realistically portrayed as clinging to power. Likewise jumping ship in May 09 is will be seen as cutting and running. I think he has few options and I suspect he knows it.
377. I came across it in The Jargon File. I assumed you were using it because the coding reference. This is the first non-techie place I have seen it
Thank you for explaining that. So “Grok” is a Martian word, then. I can’t think why I didn’t know it.
372. Again, simplicity is the object, and weighted rankings can introduce new pathologies (e.g. clone independence failure).
And it may be overkill anyhow. IIRC, the Jenkins commission found that only four seats would be determined by preferences lower than second…
381 I wish I hadn’t asked now.
379 Didn’t realise it had gained currency in the techie worl.
382 Worl=world
@379:
I was using it because of the coding reference and/or the intensely geeky nature of this discussion.
382. Under AV/STV you are free to “plump” for just one candidate with a “1″ or (usually) even an “X”. If you have no close second (or further) choice, just leave it at that. The is no compulsion to rank all candidates…
385 - There is an implication though that you ought to rank the candidates.
386. Yes, but only if you wish to give maximum effect to your vote.
@386:
I’m not so sure. Here’s the wording that was used in the Scottish locals:
To vote:
Write the figure 1 in the box next to candidate you most wish to be elected.
Write the figure 2 next to your second most preferred candidate.
Write the figure 3 next to your third preference, and so on.
You may express as many preferences or as few preferences as you wish,
but do not write the same figure more than once.
It seems unambiguous to me.
388. I think in some systems you can even “miscount” (as long as you don’t rank equally.) e.g. 1,2,4,5 would be a valid transferable vote, but 1,2,3,3 couldn’t be transferred beyond 2.
It’s looking good for Mike’s big price bet on Menzies Campbell to be the next Speaker of the House. I think Mike got 33s or something daft with Hills.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5478302.ece
Isn’t it sad that Labour are so determined not to let a nasty Tory become Speaker?
Pathetic.
386. And the later-no-harm criterion of STV and AV makes that a rational act. Your vote is only transferred when your current preference is eliminated (in STV eliminated or elected)
344. Just realised Verdasco match tomorrow night. Goodnight!
I don’t honestly believe that the population as a whole would make sense of STV/AV systems - it would cause a huge amount of confusion and a lot of perverse results.
FPTP is the least worst option and it has done us pretty well in providing relatively stable government for quite some time.
I, for one, would vote against any change if a referendum were to be held on the subject. I suspect many others would vote to retain FPTP.
391 - Says more about Labour than the Conservatives though!
In recent days, I have been made aware of some very nasty LD tactics in a local council by-election (to replace my mother who passed away in November), it would certainly not surprise me that they pulled some partisan tricks to get Ming as Speaker.
They might pretend otherwise but they are just as capable as Peter Mandleson at playing dirty - and do so on a regular basis.
Much as I respect Sir Menzies, I would be very unhappy to see the important role of Speaker handed to him under the circumstances being considered.
394. Are you saying the Irish (both North and South) - or the Scottish for that matter - are smarter than the English?
Twice the Irish rejected referendums to revert to FPTP (in 1959 and 1968 by an overwhelming margin.) Irish counts are followed avidly on TV, and they seem highly satisfied with the system.
Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to reject a particular candidate without harming your preferred party overall? That is exactly what STV facilitates…
90. On Remembrance Sunday the BBC Pravda Channel showed veterans laying ‘reefs’.
Was that on the subtitles? It was probably generated by a voice-recognition computer, rather than typed consciously by a human.
138. Technically, we also had minority government for a while in the 1990s and no-one even seemed to notice.
Apart from the fact that the media kept on going on about it all the time.
197. I wonder if “Verity” and “Mr Lambert” were named after Verity Lambert - or whether it was just a coincidence.
266. Because we believe FPTP to be a sounder way of electing a government, rather than just looking at our narrow self-interest. I think the fact that we have never wavered in this is a good thing and proves we are not as short-termist as some people might think.
Er… apart from the fact that several Conservatives have supported PR at various times. Even William Hague supported STV when he was a teenager.
283. No system is perfect, but most PR systems have glaring imperfections, not the least of which giving more power to the politicos in the squalid backroom coalition negotiations than the people in the ballot box.
Is that why PR is so popular with the voters of Ireland and most of Europe?
288. I really can’t go into this in depth while I’m at work as it would take some time, but I like our constitency system and the fact that we tend to replace one majority government with another
The last time that a majority government of one party was replaced by a majority government of another party was in 1970. STV and AMS use constituencies.
342. It’s called the Alabama paradox - the remedy is to use a divisor method instead of a quota method.
372. Because it’s the highest preference out of the candidates who are still available. Your first preference on the ballot paper may not be your true first preference; it may be only a weak second preference in the absence of your ideal candidate.
——–
The people who claim that they support FPTP “because” it provides a clear choice between two alternative majority governments, and avoids hung parliaments or coalitions, should go the whole hog and support an electoral system which really does do those things - such as the system used in Bhutan.
(cue googling if you’re curious about the bold bits)
397 - Yes but it is also nice to broadly know what you are going to get. Rather than to have an election and get the policies that the Mandelsons of this world negotiate over a G&T in a back room.
399. So you would need a law “compelling” parties to implement their manifesto pledges (and not introduce any others) ?
And some people vote for a party despite their manifesto pledges.. (see LibDems)
What is a party that contains both Ken Clarke and John Redwood - apart from a coalition?
All this questions and others undermine your simplistic analysis…
394. I’ve encountered very substantial confusion from ordinary people at each of the three Mayoral elections whenever I have tried to explain SV (or AV, which is similar).
{ The raison d’etre of “needing” AV instead of FPTP is to ensure that a candidate needs majority (not just plurality) support in order to be elected - i.e. that a rational voter can’t feel frustrated at the final result because of factors such as guesswork and tactical voting. }
I have come to the conclusion that most ordinary people simply do not get this point, or do not think that it is even remotely important. They just think that the candidate who gets most votes has got a “majority” and deserves to win. Anything to do with transfering votes from minor candidates according to preferences is seen as perverse, complicated, opaque, or booliakterous.
Thus there would be little point in practice to move from FPTP to AV just to avoid the imperfections of having a few MPs elected with 30% to 35% of the votes. We should go to STV in one swell foop.
388. From what I recall, the problem in Scotland was less that voters weren’t able to use their vote effectively in the locals under STV - for the most part they did - but that a lot of voters thought that the Holyrood election (which took place the same day) was also run under STV, with the result that there were a higher than average number of spoilt ballot papers for the latter.
400 - Yes but personally, I prefer to know the rough delineations of the coalition I’m electing and to have a system of electing them that is likely to prove effective. Not have a system whereby you neither know the shape of the coalition that is likely to govern and the method of choosing them is opaque and gives you representation that most people can ‘live with’ and not necessarily the candidate that is most substantially postively endorsed.
403. But in most countries that use PR the likely coalition shape is known before the election, and STV in particular can even allow voters to express endorsement of the coalition…
The one change I could see working (but it would be horribly expensive) would be a version of a run off
Top two candidates in each constituency would face a second ballot a week after the first. Then you would get a real result. Not one worked out on paper.
I have seen elections (at parish level) where the first 8 candidates on the ballot paper get elected (when 8 were needed) simply because people just started at the top and worked down the list.
KISS is the best guiding principle for all elections - Keep It Simple, Stupid.
Nothing involving ranking, nothing involving algorithms, nothing that can cause people to be more confused than they already are
Has anyone done any research into the way people now interact with their MEPs?
Given that MEPs now represent a huge area - do they have any real understanding of the needs of the people they are paid to represent?
Do the public really know who their MEPs are?
Surely someone must have done some research into the effects of the change of voting system on the way we view our representatives.
My suspicion is that MEPs are now so divorced from local communities that they are largely irrelevant. Plus the fact that we no longer vote for individuals means that we don’t really know who is actually speaking for our village/town/city/whatever. Also the way there are no by-elections when MEPs are removed/resigned/die must also add to the disconnect.
I think we tamper with the electoral systems of our nation at our peril.
405. The French two-round system. Not bad, but inferior to AV, since it fails the clone independence criterion (and IIRC the mutual majority criterion.)
Since the FPTP “X” was introduced (in the secret ballot from 1872) as the mark of the illiterate, perhaps we should move with the times and prevent those who can’t count to three from voting at all.
Or just leave the illiterates/innumerates with the ability to still scratch their “X”? Most proposals for AV/STV actually do propose this, so what’s the problem?
I agree that complex algorithms are a non-starter though. They give me a headache!
406 - No-one interacts with their MEPs. Ever. They have the cushiest non-job in politics.
406. Did anyone know or care about their MEPs under FPTP?
Doubt it.
When we joined the EU the deal was that eventually we would have to switch to PR for Euro-elections. Poetic Justice really. After all, we invented and imposed our systems of PR on at least two countries. STV on Ireland and AMS on Germany…
409 - I did. I really think because they were elected similarly to MPs and people really felt they had an MEP.
Mine was Chris Davies, I distictly remember. I could not name any of my MEPs now. If I, a total saddo, can’t, the general public have no bloody chance!
344 Thanks for the tennis bets Henry - on this occasion, I’m just going with Karlovic to beat his opponent in straight sets, where the best odds are with Boylesports at 8/11 or virtually identical odds on Betfair.
410. Mine is Chris Davies now (North West), and I certainly know who he is. I think he’s bloody fantastic…
Whereas, at the last ever FPTP Euro by-election (Merseyside West, 1996) the turnout was a risible 11.3%.
Only Hitler’s doodlebugs effected a lower turnout in any parliamentary election…
410. I met my MEP under FPTP a couple of times. I know who my MEP under PR is (Gerard Batten) and I think I wrote to him once or twice. He probably won’t be my MEP for much longer because I won’t vote UKIP this time (and they won’t hold their seat in London either).
412. IIRC, The UKIP didn’t have a candidate in the 1996 Merseyside West by-election because, er, they didn’t notice that the election was happening until it was too late.
360th plus VAT?
It’s official . . . OBAMA & BIDEN ELECTED
Today, Congress counted the electoral votes cast last month, pursuant to the outcome of the popular vote in each state (and congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska).
Just saw the tape on the news. Intensely gratifying to see and hear DICK CHENEY read out the vote totals and declare Barrack Obama and Joe Biden elected.
I have a lot of respect for John McCain, Sarah Palin, the Republican Party, and the millions of voters who did NOT vote for Obama and Biden. So I am curbing if not totally forgoing my triumphalism.
Nevertheless, I do believe that, in these troubled times (but are there really any other kind?) the election and inpending innauguration of Barack Obama is good news for my nation and our world.
–the President-Elect is hard at work on policy, legislative and bully pulpit fronts (he gave a major speech today BTW) doing his damnedest to stop (or more correctly slow) our current economic nosedive.
–rough patches he’s run into with some cabinet selections is in contrast with the overall strength, not only of his choices but also his managment of the process. So far, the best I’ve ever seen or heard tell of in a VERY long time.
–Blago-Buris mess is another example of the Pres-E’s political savvy. First, by disassociating himself with the disgraced Gov and his pick. BUT leaving a back door for a graceful exit strategy if required. So when the lawyers & Black caucus rolled hapless Harry, it was Obama who cut the Gordian knot to seat the SOB_ and get it over with.
(as aside, spoke today with fiend who was campaign consultant for Roland Burris back in the day, who is a big fan of RB, and who believes he will not only run for relection but win.)
–consistent with his campaign, Obama has made a major point of reaching out to Republicans, for example 1/3 of new stimulus package tax cuts; of course limits to what’s possible or desireable, and may well end in tears (but who will cry more?) but so far anyway Barrack Obama is doing a better job of putting Country before Party after Eday, than John McCain ever did before Nov. 4.
–international challenges faced by the new President are even more daunting (if that’s possible) than the domestic. With respect to the Gaza tragedy, it’s obvious that the timing has been very significantly influenced if not outright determined by the US constitutional calendar and the upcoming inauguration. On the plus side, my guess (or rather fervant wish) is that things can only get better under the new President’s watch.
–interesting counterpoint between Barrack Obama and Ehud Barak. Check out story in today’s (Thur) NY Times. IF we are going to have anything approaching peace in our times between Palestinians and Israelis, then methinks that these two will be deeply involved.
Domestically, looks like we are already
413. Quite possibly. Most of the electors (including moi) didn’t notice either!
Positive omen?
Today I found in my change a penny minted in 1936!
417. If it had Edward VIII’s head on it, take it straight to the bank!
419. In the house I moved into last I found an Irish 1933 “thrupenny bit” under a stone in the garden.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_three-pence_coin
I’ve had nothing but bad luck ever since….
19 - Funny, didn’t think HM had a beard . . . or looked anything like Abe Lincoln. Though they both married southern belles!
420 . . . which perhaps explains why both the the Railspitter and the Duke both looked so ravaged at the end . . .
420. “Southern Belle”? As the Tory MP said in 1936 “Has it come to this, that the Emperor of India, Defender of the Faith, Admiral of the Fleet should now add to his titles ‘third mate on an American tramp’”?
Come on, you can tell us, SSI. ‘She’ was really a ‘he’, wasn’t she?
More data from the poll (usual caveats apply):
Brown performance:
Satisfied 28
Dissatisfied 59
DK 13
Net -31
Best PM
Cameron 30
Brown 29
Clegg 6
DK 35
Brown has sensible policies for tackling Britain’s economic problems:
Agree 28
Disagree 52
DK 20
Net -24
Cameron has sensible policies for tackling Britain’s economic problems:
Agree 26
Disagree 40
DK 34
Net -14
Meanwhile, I am still projecting a Tory minority government…
Congratulation to Councillor Iain Lindley who got selected last night to fight the new Worsley and Eccles South seat for the Conservatives at the next general election, when it finally comes. Being local and as competent as he is, Iain is the person that will bring real change to Worsley and the candidate Labour fear. More importantly for us, its the best change in decades of Salford having a Conservative MP.
420 - Perhaps “southern belle” was not quite right (neither Mary Todd Lincoln nor Wallis Warfied Simpson Windsor being noted for their looks). Should insted have said “southern gentry”.
As for the gender issue, the Dutchess did have three husbands. So if she was faking, she must have been damn good at it!
426 - full name of the lady (until proven otherwise) was Bessie Wallis Warfield Spencer Simpson Windsor, aka Wallis, Duchess of Windsor
424. The most telling thing for me in those figures is the high number of “don’t knows” on the question of whether Cameron has sensible policies for tackling the economic problems.