Mori: Labour & Tories down - LDs up
December 17th, 2008
CONSERVATIVES 39% (-2)
LABOUR 35% (-1)
LIB DEMS 15% (+4)
The big change, clearly, is the Lib Dem total and reflects, surely, sampling issues.
But the Tories won’t be please that another survey has them below 40% while Labour might be a tad concerned that, in spite of all the recent hype, they have not made any progress.
Brown is surely going to be a touch more cautious that Labour’s momentum appears to have faltered a bit. As well as the Tories dropping Labour needs to be advancing. Back in mid November MORI had the party at 37%.
If anything this will take a bit of steam out of the “general election now” calls.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
first?
ludicrous.
MoE, pure noise. Waste of time.
LibDem numbers all over the shop.
and secondly I don’t think we can believe any poll at the moment, the electorate is far too volatile. Either that or the polling companies are having a fit of the vapours over their “fiddle factors” in case they end up with egg on their face come the election.
Another poll with the Tories below 40%. Keep them coming.
4% isnt that much really is it. Brown could still go for it.
Another poll with the Tories ahead of Labour. Keep them coming.
It seems that 35-36% is as good as it’s going to get for Labour. Not surprising as it is very rare for a government to increase support from one election to the next.
Does Labour now fall back to 30% and below over the winter as the economy disintegrates and if so where does their support move to?
5. Volatile?
All the polls have converged on the Tories in high 30s, low 40s Labour Mid 30s and Lib Dems mid teens.
3. Oh Dear - Seant is going to be after you.
What we can say is that Labour are back to base camp - ie 33% thats solid again after going on holiday in the summer.
“Just a bit of fun”
Baxter
290 Con
306 Lab
025 LibDem
Wells
289 Con
306 Lab
027 LibDem
“it is very rare for a government to increase support from one election to the next.”
Those who insist otherwise are guilty of the same paradigm-denying delusion which once claimed there would be “an end to boom and bust”.
Chris A at 5-Right and wrong I think.Right about all the polls ‘fiddling’ and right about the reasons.Wrong in so far as we have to believe them for now,given that they are all pointing in the same direction.
Good Lord - what is going on Harman is holding her own against Hague - thats like Dover holding arsenal at home!
All to play for in the Year of the Ox, then. MOOOOO!
Same, same, nothing but same.
15. Telling lies isn’t holding your own.
isn’t a large part of the discrepancy between polls and spreads (both now and back in the summer) due to wariness of the seat calculators? we get lots of discussion about the accuracy of polls and arguments over subsamples but less over what the polss figures mean in terms of seats.
18 well you have a point there, but you know hague should be hammering her.
Interestingly hague is arguing about a policy that the tories have, rather than going jobs jobs jobs, shows the tories seem to have got the idea they need to have an alternative.
Hague is very muted today. He missed the real attack which is that the Gvt scheme is designed (with repeat annoucnement of £150m) to help the newly unemployed, where as the conservative’s Natioanl Loan Guarantee Scheme is designed to stop businesses from having to lay people off in the first place.
His jokes aren’t really hitting the spot, and his heart doesn’t seem in it. The House is muted as well, though warming up.
19 Good point, bird. Perhaps we should look at that side of things more closely.
Turned PMQ’s off. Boring
re 19. Yes - I plan to do some post on that during the holiday season.
Harman made just one of the worst jokes ever…
From previous thread, ” Returning troops in ceremonial parades through our towns and cities in April, May and June. ”
Yep, and straight on a plane to Afghanistan…
7. He’d have to consider how that would widen over the course of an election campaign. We’ve seen 4, 5, 6 point gaps etc which could easily turn into 8, 9 or 10.
19 - Very good point.
Anything under 5% is very doable in terms of winning an election.
I’m still persuaded we’ll see an election next year but not February or May; my sense is it will be June 2009 (neatly wrapping the local and European elections into it too)…
The answer to Adrian Dismore’s question is that no maintenance of the HRA is needed to protect the disabled from the discrimination case he mentioned (he claimed that special needs constituents were bullied from a pub by the manager).
British Licensing Law prohibits discrimination on the grounds of gender race and disability. It did so from 1968 onwards, well before the Human Rights Act was implemented.
For the third time I repeat…until I am blue in the face. Worthy though they are,Baxter and Wells are the mugs at the table.
You can be sure of one thing only.The polls may get it right or wrong,collectively or singly.One firm may even be spot on.
Of this you can be absolutely sure and that is HOWEVER the ’spot on’ polling firm call it the corresponding figures from the Seat Calculators will be wrong,wrong,wrong !
I am also able to reveal the direction in which they will be wrong.They will overestimate LAB Seats and underestimate CON Seats.
30 - Can you let us know why too?
I owuld expect it to be due to the marginals
HH was completely rubbish today!
It gets a bit tedious when she is so partisan and trots out complete B0ll0cks on what the government purports to be doing. I really think Labour are digging a tremendous hole for themselves in the long run as their futile efforts will end in failure mean more people will be signing on every two weeks like me!
The story here in this country today is why does Gordon Brown go to any length to avoid PMQ’s and discuss the economy, indeed he thinks nothing of wasting thousands of pounds in flying out to Iraq on a seperate visit.
Just ran across this, will share for amusement.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dems-could-win-election-poll-shows-488834.html
200-1, you heard it here first
my local pub was mentioned in PMQs, may pop in tonight.
The “bully” is now officially on the map
£ taking a beating.
Is no one watching PMQs today? It’s been quite dull.
I think Vince Cable won the battle of the deputy leaders, then Harriet and lastly Hague.
Vince Cable had an excellent point, Harriett was solid but boring, Hague was just grey.
36. I was watching PMQ’s - what was Cable’s point?
30 your right - there is no way in hell that Labour are going to have a majority after the next election. No way whatsoever.
The only game in town is can they stop the tories from getting one. At the moment they are on course to do that. So if they are why not go now, because I think brown thinks he can have anoth 18 months and still get a similar result.
For you politics groupies too close to the moves in the poll headlines, you should think about two things.
First, I have voted Labour at every election since 1983, and I will hold my nose and vote Tory in 2009-10. I will do it because I believe Labour needs a period of opposition, because I believe the welfare state is out of control, because I broadly trust Cameron in the way many Tories broadly trusted Blair in 1997, and because of the Tories’ education policy. Of my four work colleagues - two Labour, two Lib Dem voters - all will consider voting Tory. Of most but not all of my Labour friends, some will vote LD, some Tory and some won’t vote. I haven’t met a motivated Labour voter.
Second, Labour are - at best, in seat count terms - in hung parliament territory. And that is before the worst of the downturn has taken hold and before an election campaign has begun. Does anyone out there honestly believe Brown is going to beat Cameron in a four-week campaign? Not even his best friends think that.
However you cut this, Cameron is the next prime minister. My best hope is that the Liberal Democrats are forced into some form of accommodation so they can at last get their hands dirty. With any luck, they’ll be as sullied by the experience as the German Greens.
36, I flicked on, Cable was the highlight but even that wasn’t exactly riveting. Is it me or does the House seem emptier as well?
Nick Palmer on!
From last thread - roger and Bobajob - I am *supporting* PR, I have always supported PR what is it that you don’t uynderstand about why people find it a preferable as a system rather than the loser ‘winning’?
It doesn’t come down to my support for a third party it comes down to fairness, something that labour supporters in the last ten years have forgotten all about.
Get in Nick!!
wow is that nick p?
37. It was about the dire state in which Housing Associations are in and their lack of funding. He said the government has concentrated on the banks but not the associations.
Harriet ignored the question and talked about the housing market.
Nick Palmer is standing up.
36. Turned off, Harman being her usual self, Hague didn’t seem to be putting it in.
Richard Bacon is fast becoming one of the most incisive MPs in Parliament. I was at the Public Accounts Committee last week, and he asked some phenomenally insightful questions of the witnesses, in a little understood area (public sector prcurement). Very good Question at PMQs on the future of the NAO.
Question by Nick Palmer asking if the Gvt still opposes Open Cast Mining where environmental effects are disproportionate (aren’t they always).
Did a tory just claim that labour had built a new jerusalem?
Martin day you only think harman is rubbish cus you hate her.
I’m worried she has done so well that the Labour party may make her leader.
Imagine Prime minister Harman. Its almost worth it to see what martin and the mail readers of thsi world would make of it!
Nernty @ 30.There are two reasons,one of which you mention yourself.
The other totally simple reason is this.Currently the Spreads give the Tories an 86 Seat lead over Labour.Betfair make the CONS a rough 70% chance to gain Most Seats……..And yet based on similar information,B&W make Labour a slight favourite…..but don’t take any bets !
I was surprised that Nick Palmer ventured a question to the government on digging holes!
Even more surprised that the response was the policy had not changed!
Interesting question all the same joking aside! Must be to fire up the Broxtowe Minner base for an early election!
Why do so many MPs have to keep checking their notes? Is a 10 second question so hard to remember?
Not vcaught uo yet but I’ve got to respopnd to the ridiculousness over PR on the previous thread.
Bobajob - wake up will you? You had a Lib Dem and a Plaid supporter calling for PR because of the unfairness of the system and you rant on about ‘the tories’.
This is your problem, you think about the tories all the time, you wake up thinking about them, you dream about them, you can’t see beyond two parties.
You’ll understand when you realise that potential coalition partners stick two fingers up at you. Too late but tough.
Didn’t Nick have a small dig at the Tories as a ‘do nothing’ party?
Mentioned by HH at PMQs:
http://www.williamhague.org.uk/
52, Because they’re stupid lobby-fodder?
52. Because many backbenchers are incompetent.
40 Well it is nearly Christmas.
55. Probably set up as a placeholder while he was and then forgotten about.
42. PR isn’t fair.
Look at Germany. The voters voted Schroeder out of his constituency. But he got back in due to the PR list. How is that fair?
The FDP have never got higher than 15% but between 1950 and 1992 were only out of government for a total of 9 years. Is that fair?
No government between 1950 and 1992 was ever voted out of government. Only changing coalitions removed them from power. Is that fair?
No one knew that the SDP and the CDU were going to form a government before they voted for them. Thanks to a bunch of party apparachicks in a back room they ended up with one. is it fair that voters get a government no one voted for?
PR is incredibly unfair.
55. There used to a nudist called William Hague - it is not hard to get web addresses and put something like that up!
I must dust my credit card and buy some Gordon Brown combinations!
61. Yes, probably why it got set up, to stop someone else taking the address.
PMQ’s was a truly wretched viewing spectacle.
Mike on
63. Yes I think the point is BROWN was CHICKEN!
55. Wow, an old website. Do you have anything else to show us, like a half-eaten box of chocolates?
49.
I’m all for Hattie as PM; I have money on it.
55 Also mentioned at PMQ that it has nothing to do with him. Shall set up a website called Harriet MP and publish the claim she is the saviour of the universe? It would have as much credence.
Theresa May’s website http://www.teresamay.com/
[MODERATED - WARNING: This website contains adult content - sorry Woody, but people are using computers at work, and although the warning ruins the joke, it's needed]
55.
So why no response about HH’s blog getting taken over? Missed opportunity.
Kinnock saying Brown takes no notice of how policies play politically!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
68. Been done.
See http://harrietharman.blogspot.com/
her username was harriet password harman. she hasn’t been able to get it back.
25. Even by Westminster standards? Is it repeatable on a family website?
60 - I’d prefer an STV system without a list, there is PR and there is PR.
And, by the way, Germany seemed to do pretty well as a country with such coalitions. Maybe that’s what we’ve been missing here, rather than the having the frantic lurching about from one position to another.
Everyone seems to hate Harman - I don’t think she is that bad - martin day i seem to remember has a real hatred for her - what is it exactly that you hate martin?
What a bizarre tone to the article - maybe I’m being thick but I don’t see how this is anything other than more good news for the Government. The Tories are again below 40 per cent and Labour are within site of them. Labour need to flip just two in 100 votes and they are on parity.
Not bad when they were 20 pts behind in the autumn.
70. Sorry, meant to add some text.
43. I don’t have a string view either way – but PR is never as democratic as people claim. It places an inordinate amount of power in the hands of fringe parties such as the Liberals.
76. Patronising, anti men, hypocritical, relatively incompetent (thus sacked) for a start.
She is a fighter though to be fair.
79 - There you go again….
A fringe party that gets up to 20% of the national vote (and beyond at times)? I think not.
76. She talks down to people all the time - the personification of the nanny state!
I object to her policy positions on job legislation.
She is useless and trots out rubbish! Just look at PMQ’s today the replies she gave were as lamentable as Brown’s.
75. It might do pretty well with the coalitions but they are anti-democratic and unfair.
Oh and yes we must get rid of the frantic lurching about. Because the british public clearly wanted a coalition government which the alliance were a part of in 1983, a coalition government which the LDs were a part of in 1997 and a coalition government which the LDs were part of in 1992. Isn’t it strange that the public voted in such different ways in these three elections but actually wanted the Lib Dems to decide for them how they would be governed every time.
I actually agree with you on STV. I oppose a party list system.
79 - But would you concede that PR is more democratic than FPTP?
Hezza making me laugh about Bicycle MOT’s etc!
78 - No worries, squire, just didn’t want PBers getting into trouble at work!
83 G “I oppose a party list system.”
Agreed. The List system sucks…..but PR is fair.
The people should choose their representatives.
The Representatives should choose the Government.
Then you have some chance of “Liberal Democracy” instead of just “Mob Rule”.
83 - In each instance they would have helped dull the wilder edges of the governments which resulted. Imagine a world where Thatcher was not able to further social division or one that stopped Blair from blundering into Iraq.
Sounds good to me.
Commenters on Guido saying that http://www.williamhague.org.uk was registered by Mandelson, from what I can tell it’s not true.
89 Nope:
Domain name: williamhague.org.uk
Registrant:
William Hague Campaign
Registrant type:
Unknown
Registrant’s address:
William Hague Campaign
House Of Commons
LONDON
SW1A 0AA
GB
Registrar:
Thus plc t/a Demon Internet [Tag = DEMON]
URL: http://www.demon.net
Relevant dates:
Registered on: 08-May-1997
Renewal date: 08-May-2009
Last updated: 02-May-2007
88. “Imagine a world where Thatcher was not able to further social division or one that stopped Blair from blundering into Iraq.”
Imagine a world where the government that the people actually wanted was not able to carry out it’s agenda. Instead being dictated to by a minority party with little popular support.
That sounds anti-democratic to me.
If the LDs were just to back which ever party got a plurality of votes, what’s the point in PR?
If the LDs were to back which ever party would further their own agenda, what’s the point in voting?
89. It was registered to CCHQ, 11 years ago. They presumably did it to avoid squatters and then forgot about it.
On the Spreads. I’m not betting at the moment. A few reasons.
1. Spreadfair has shut down and I don’t yet have a credit facility with SPIN or Ig.
2. The SPIN/Ig 6 point spread margin is a major disincentive.
3. I expect Labour to continue to improve on the spreads short term but a General Election could be announced anytime soon and I don’t want to be stuck with a Labour BUY position under those circumstances. I still expect a Tory victory at the next GE. If it’s in early 2009 then it could be a narrow Tory majority. If it’s a 2010 election it could be a bloodbath for Labour.
89 - Last modified on December 7th, 1997. Single page website, designed to stop cyber-squatters I’d guess.
Or is that all that websites were in 1997?
re 10 we have many polls now showing changes of +5, -7, +4 etc between their regular samplings. That strikes me as volatile. This poll alone shows a 36% increase in the LibDem share from one conducted by the same company only a few days ago. That completely incredible.
12,31. If you allow for SNP and regional predictions, URW is right and the seats are approx: C320/Lab271/LD24/Nats14
91 G. But you are not arguing against PR - you are arguing against coalition governments! That is an entirely different thing.
You can still get minority governments under FPTP - look at Canada at the moment.
The question is - does the electoral system represent the political vies of the people. PR isn’t perfect, but it does the job better than FPTP.
The people’s representative then have to grow up and work with each other - like successful organizations do. Alternatively they can stay dysfunctional, and then we can elect others to do the job properly.
91 - less than 40% of voters voted for this government so how can I accept their right to govern over me? They may be in power but I find it impossible to acknowledge their right to have that power.
If a party can’t deal with a partner to work on what a majority of voters want then they don’t deserve to be in power.
91: “the government that the people actually wanted”. Which people? Certainly not a majority for either Thatcher or Blair. 60%+ against both, and couldn’t shift them; not entirely democratic.
re 42 Nick P another question at PMQs? How does the man do it? That makes at least 4 by my count in the last 12 months alone. There’s probably only about 600 questions by banck benchers in the whole year. Don’t your other colleagues bother Nick?
Typing ‘William Hague’ into Google, this URL is the 3rd hit, below his Wikipedia and theyworkforyou entries.
13 - Unusual, but not ridiculously rare:
1951 - Labour vote up 2.6% compared with 1950 (although they lost power ironically).
1955 - Tory vote up 1.7% compared with 1951.
1966 - Labour vote up 3.5% compared with 1964.
Oct 1974 - Labour vote up 2.1% compared with Feb 1974 (doesn’t really count other than technically).
In 1983, the Tory vote did slip very slightly compared with 1979 but only due to a huge increase from the Alliance - their margin over Labour was up hugely. In 1987 and 1992, the slippage was barely visible to the human eye.
100. All the good work on here being rewarded!
97. I am arguing against coalition governments. But PR would tend to create them. My other problems with PR is that it centralises power in the party elite. Reduces the autonomy of individual parliamentarians. And that it removes the constituency link.
98.99. Because they won the most seats in a general election. And anyway no one voted for a party they voted for a representative who decided to take a party whip.
95 I think those polled are just having a larf right now. Perhaps large numbers of Tories have cottoned on to the fact that the only way they can get rid of this Govt any time soon is to lie to pollsters. Lull Labour into a false sense of confidence - then vote the buggers out! That’s what I’d do right now, if asked….
34. The figure of about 38% has been consistent since at least 1950…
Question for the panel…
Does the troop withdrawal from Iraq, and therefore the removal of the primary objection to an inquiry, have any bearing on the potential election date? Can GB further postpone it until June 2010, or does he need to call an election early?
103 G “And anyway no one voted for a party they voted for a representative who decided to take a party whip.”
No they don’t.
Whenever anyone tells me who they are voting for, they never say “Mr Jones”, or “Ms Smith”, but “Conservative”, “Labour”, “Liberal Democrat” and so on.
Nick Robinson suggesting that the major banks may be fully nationalised and that he’s heard from two different sources that this was being actively considered at the top of Government - Yeeks!!!
Later,Hezza pointed out that, having tried to save the banks, then the motor industry, no one seemed to know what to do and this state of total uncertainty was for him the most worrying aspect of all.
107
or conversely who they are voting against…
107. Our constitution treats them as voting for a representative. Look at what happened to Derek Conway.
If I lived a few 100 metres up the road I would change the ‘party’ I voted for. Can you say that next election you will vote for a party? There’s no one in the other parties you’d make an exception for? The Lib Dems have profited from this more than anyone else, look at the Lib Dem ‘incumbency bonus’.
Anyway, I must get back to work. Ta ra.
Mike’s brief contribution was good, but sadly his interviewer appeared to understand little about interpreting polls and nothing about political betting.
101. The point abut rising vote shares between elections is this.
Once the peak has been reached and the downturn begun, then there is no instance of a resurgence delivering a higher vote share at the subsequent election.
Look at the Tories 51 to 64. Steady gains up to 59 and then downhill and out.
Labour 64 to 70. Ground gained in 66 then down and out
Tories 79 to 97. Ground held and steady through to 92 then down and out
Labour 97 to ??. Ground held in one election then down. To beat their 05 share at the next election they’d have to overturn all precedents.
The question is not whether they can gain ground but hold what they have and keep the Tories to only a modest advance.
103. There are mediums of course. The Welsh Assembly system for example is a mix of both.
111, that’s because Anita Anand [sp] is not a patch on Jenny Scott. I don’t watch the Daily Politics regularly now, save Wednesday’s PMQs bit, but Scott seemed far sharper.
Blind Cricketing controversy, Aussies claiming star British player not as blind as he says he is.
PfP- She was trying to get Mike to say something sensational….like “Fasten your seat-belts and get ready for a Q1 Election !”
When Mike didn’t oblige she simply got bored.
111. No she showed up just how little the MSM understand polling. No discussion of trend ect. Pretty poor really, Mike should organise a conference for these people on understanding polling.
112 - Precisely (was just about to post on the same lines). Once a governing party in modern British politics has lost ground while retaining incumbency, it’s never recovered it.
86 Very speedy intervention on your part Morus - Congratulations, I was impressed and it made one wonder whether you had some first hand experience of such workplace internet problems!
117. The media regularly get in a muddle with things like percentages, stock market reports and risk; I think a course in basic numeracy would be needed before studying psephology.
108. PfP. Why are you surprised? The current share prices suggest that there is a high probability that much more capital is required - the present value of future earnings streams is far more valuable than present prices suggest. I’ve been saying this for a while.
116 URW - not really Mike’s style is it? Then Robinson, Kinnock and Hezza all in turn rubbished there being any prospect of a 2009 election, dismising it as being “pure internet speculation” but we know otherewise don’t we?
so another 75,000 people joined the dole queues last month. I bet they are thrilled at the prospect of another Labour government….
117. Why do you assume any of these airheads would be interested in attending?
123. High unemployment helps Labour. It allows them to paint themselves as the party of compassionate Keynsian interventionist job creation schemes. In stark contrast to the free market taliban in the Conservative party who consider mass unemployment part of Schumpeter’s “creative destruction”. Of course, none of that is actually true but it’s an easy and simple message to sell.
114 I agree Anard is a muppet.
She seems incapable of understanding ‘*quite simple’ economic concepts.
* a definition based on the fact that they seem easy to me.
She and Maguire were on with Redwood talking about bank liquidity and it was like watching a highly qualified draughtsman being taken on by two people potato painting.
I rarely watch any more.
116- ‘I wouldn’t know about that,sor.’
What I do know about is that frontline anchorpersons in British TV are a bunch of ‘know-nothings’.What I detest most about them is that they seek to infect anyone with anything to say with their own ignorance.
Anthony Wells agreeing with Ted on polling around Christmas.
‘Given the extremely short gap since the previous lot of fieldwork and the lack of any great world shattering events that could explain a big jump in Lib Dem support, I expect the changes here are no more than normal random sampling error (that is, the variation in the make up between one sample and the next) - though we are getting into the period when I’m slightly wary of polling results anyway as Christmas shopping starts to skew the people who are at home to take phone calls. The overall picture remains a Tory lead in the mid single figures.’
126, I’m glad I wasn’t watching that. I quite like Redwood, he’s an utter Vulcan but a clever chap. Maguire’s a comic book journalist, and a bad one at that.
121. This is going to be a tricky one though. Last time around, the banks were on the point of collapse and had little alternative but to accept government intervention. That’s not really the case now - I suspect most banks feel they can get through the recession if they are aggressive enough at managing their books.
A second round of recapitalisation would be more about stuffing the banks’ mouths with cash and trying to force them to lend (and lose money). I would expect a good deal of resistance to that - perhaps the government will have to try to engineer another run….
126. Even if one disagreed with Redwood’s politics I think most people would agree that he’s smarter than the average politician.
131, now there’s a backhanded compliment
…..fluent Welsh speaker.
The rolling average is now showing the lowest Tory lead since November 2007…
Con 39.2
Lab 35.0
LD 15.2
seat forecast
Lab 296
Con 280
LD 38
Nats 15 (assumes SNP on 31%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Blinding good polling figures with so many Tories wintering abroad or starting Xmas holidays…
No Christmas cheer at Woolies: “some staff had been told that closures across its 813 stores would begin on 27 December.”
A statement is due from the administrators later:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7787904.stm
129. Redwood is big room talent and should be in the SC somewhere. His blog has been one the best commentaries on the Krunch and Mugabrown’s reaction to it. He also seems a bit less weird (not hard) now that he’s a bit older.
136. What happened to Gordon’s help?
125. Indeed. Conversely, it should be easier sell for the Tories about sterling’s collapse: a weak currency means a weak economy means a weak government (as Gordon himself said in the 90s).
Even though the economics of deprecation are, in truth, ambiguous - it does many good things as well as many bad things - people will just see the pound falling as BAD.
The Tories should hammer this home.
As regards unemployment the Tories should start making absurd and outrageous promises to counter the ridiculous and putrid Labour lies. “We will put x million back to work blah blah”. No one cares about the fine print any more, they just wanna be reassured. Tories should start doing dramatic reassurance.
If the Labour party whinge that Tory figures don’t add up then the come backs are obvious: “this is from the party that promised to end boom and bust - the party that said we were best placed to weather the downturn - they don’t know what they’re talking about.”
Fairly irrefutable.
It’s time to wheel out the big lies. The Big Fibs. Labour are lying their way to a hung parliament, maybe a small majority. Enuff.
As for the unemployment figures themselves - they are hideous. We are looking at 3m unemployed by the end of next year, surely. Maybe even 4m. Truly horrible. This has to hurt Labour eventually, but it will only hurt them if voters think the Tories have a superior masterplan.
Time to fake one, Cammo.
106
An inquiry is almost irrelevant as regards election timing. Brown could start one now and it might still be running in ten years time, if the government so wished.
A combination of delaying the start and broadening the scope and invoking security caveats and disagreements over the final report.
This isn’t the long grass, it’s a whole new rainforest.
@138:
How much Pick’n'Mix can one dour Scot sell?
135 And out spending their hard-earned money. And partying - we know Labour supporters are miserable gits who just stay at home, waiting and waiting for that phone-call from opinion pollsters….
Seems a perfectly good poll for Labour and of course the LibDems in line with all the others - can’t get worked up about +/-1%. I do notice that when Labour gets about 35%, people here say “ah, but it’s the Tory rating that counts”, and when the Tory rating drops under 40%, people say “ah, but it’s the Labour level that counts”. We’ve been closing fast - that’s what matters.
100: Yes, considering I only go to about one PMQ in two (bloody bear-garden that it is) I’ve been lucky. Two of them were literally luck of the draw (half the questions are from people predetermined by lottery - though you do have to apply to be included), the others I was just pleasantly surprised to be called. Because I don’t heckle or ask really duff questions (though yes, I did get in the do-nothing bit) I get called more than some of the more disruptive people. My question relates to a possible open-cast mine that worried constituents in 1997 (I supported legal action against the Government, then persuaded the Minister not to defend the case) - there’s a possibility that it will come up again, and I wanted to fire a shot across the bows.
141
Would you advise kids to take sweeties from Gordon?
Sean - ‘As regards unemployment the Tories should start making absurd and outrageous promises to counter the ridiculous and putrid Labour lies’
Yes but those kind of lies didn’t help Labour in the 1980s. Are you assuming the voters are more stupid now then they were then?
126 Anard ticks all the BBC boxes though mixed ethnic background, female , young etc. The fact she is crap is less important.
In case I’m accused of racism SPOTY was equally guilty bringing in the singularly untalented Jake Humphrey with his embarrassing interrviews. Being young doesn’t equate to being better. Although in Humprey’s case I see he will be the face of BBC’s F1 coverage in 2009 - there’s method in their madness.
Some people argue against PR because it centralises the power of political parties, however there is an example that is a counter-arguement to and is Ireland.
I hope Labour goes ahead and builds that open-cast mine, Mr Palmer — I’ll have somewhere to throw my ID card!
@146:
Good Christ, she’s a shocker. Anand was useless enough when she was on Radio 5. To have to be subjected to the further indignity of *looking* at her?
Urk.
145. “Yes but those kind of lies didn’t help Labour in the 1980s. Are you assuming the voters are more stupid now then they were then?”
The voters are not more stupid, but they are more frightened. And that’s one reason Labour are picking up scared floaters and the odd panicky Tory.
To counter this I expect a dramatic, brilliant and meaningless Tory statement on unemployment in January - “we will put the millions back to work. This is a promise. Don’t trust the party of no more boom and bust. Etc”
It’s that kind of stuff that’s gonna hit home now. Empty, rhetorical flourishes, pabulum for the soul. They need to be carefully judged, of course.
The advantage of dramatic statements is that they deal with the “Do Nothing” label, as well.
84. Possibly. Possibly not. I suspect AV is the most democratic system, but you can argue the toos against that too. My point was that there is no point whingeing about the system now. If the Tories and fringe parties such as the Liberals really want PR they should have launched a pro-PR coalition not squeal when Labour gets in range of a small majority despite having a smaller share.
Mike “Brown is surely going to be a touch more cautious that Labour’s momentum appears to have faltered a bit.”
It’s like I was saying yesterday Mike. Brown isn’t so much as having a bounce but bounces.
It’s like the polls at the time of the election that never was and the polling you pointed to in 1997.
Voters have doubts about Brown that just keep coming back.
I get the impression that labour are training every sinew running to just stand still with Campbell and Mandelson trying to keep people’s attention of the running machine they are on.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/12/16/now-icm-puts-the-tories-below-40/#comment-883589
No. 21 “Interestingly, 33% is the lowest Labour share of the recent batch of polls. I think this just proves that the electorate is very volatile and people keep changing their minds regularly.”
Yes, I’m wondering how sticky they are as well.
Last night Roger, I believe, said that the polls were tightening to which there was a little debate. Yes, some polls are tighten but then you get ones that have widened - MORI’s last three polls, Sunday’s YouGov.
I wonder if it is about recurring doubts about Brown and that may put Labour off an early election as they aren’t confident that they are getting the momentum in the polls as they tighten then widen then tighten.
It’s similar to the election that never was. The polls were going really strongly in Labour’s favour then it was all called off on the basis of a marginals poll which cast doubt on their national poll strength.
It also reminds me of Mike’s post here about how Brown could have been Labour’s weakest link in 1997.
I wonder if the Conservatives, and others who appear to be going light on Brown recently, are looking for Labour to gain some traction so Brown does call an election.
The summer nadir didn’t “get him out” and the only way to get him out is an election as soon as possible. Since he is the only person who can call that maybe they are laying off and allowing what looks like slippage so he calls one and then they’ll go out to undermine him as they know his appeal is not that strong with the electorate.
by Jim M December 16th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
150. The voters are not more stupid, but they are more frightened
Evidence?
153. None whatsoever. Tom Knox Intuition. And remember he is a thriller write extraordinaire, who relies on observing the human soul. That’s his trade.
And I predicted all the last polls right. Unlike, ahem, some Tories on here.
Since Tony’s departure PMQs are just not the same, nowhere near as interesting. FMQs in the Scottish Parliament are much, much more entertaining.
re 135 some of them may even be spending the winter fuel allowance which they don’t need.
150. I think the issue is that they’re NOT frightened. People are more optimistic than they were a month or so ago, perhaps because they think the crisis has passed, perhaps because it’s Christmas, perhaps both.
@154:
*ahem*
I spy a tiny bit of historical revisionism there, Mr T.
154. Sean, clearly you don’t realise that these are great numbers for the Tories as most of them are away skiing or out shopping?
@159:
There is a certain amount of truth to that. I should be very surprised if we don’t see Tories in the mid 40s and Labour in the high 20s by late spring.
139. “Even though the economics of deprecation are, in truth, ambiguous - it does many good things as well as many bad things - people will just see the pound falling as BAD.”
But of an volte face? I’m sure you were one of the Falling Pound Is Always Bad brigade on here recently. I remember enjoying arguing the toss with you and being called a retard (a great honour, I know) for my claim that a falling pound is often a good thing.
What say thee?
O Rose, thou art sick!
The invisible worm
That flies in the night,
In the howling storm,
Has found out thy bed
Of crimson joy:
And his dark secret love
Does thy life destroy.
158. Clearly I haven’t got called every single poll in world history correctly. But I do think I sniffed the collapse in the Tory lead long before most Tories. I saw it from that first ComRes poll, with a lead of 1 - which everyone else dismissed.
ANYWAY I don’t want to get into another tedious argument with Tories - removing this horrible useless government is too important for us virile likeminded right-thinking chaps to squabble.
My advice is genuine: dramatic but meaningless Tory announcements are what’s called for, to sound reassuring and peel off the Do Nothing sticker.
160. Fancy a charity bet for a tenner? I’ll give you even money. You need ICM and Mori to show 43 + and 29 - for you to win.
162 Re the declining Pound good or bad? Maidstone is packed full of French bargain hunters though the Brits aren’t so in evidence.
146 Although in Humprey’s case I see he will be the face of BBC’s F1 coverage in 2009
So, unless I’m very much mistaken Murray Walker is being overlooked!
164. I’ll have a tenner if you’re offering. What date range we looking at?
154. I suspect 157. is closer to the truth myself. Labour’s position has improved because mortgage rates and petrol prices are down - possibly a bit of ‘false dawn’ syndrome.
163 When was the last time a party lost a 20+ lead so quickly? I can’t remember another case. Let’s hope the Tories keep their steady as they go downhill approach.
161. You know what? I’m quite bored of people calling me up on sh1t which I know is untrue.
Test did it last night, claiming she hadn’t called a poll a rogue when in truth she had questioned the figure it had for every single party (how much more rogue can a poll get, than getting everything wrong?)
Now you do it.
Go back and read the threads. I said the falling pound would probably prove bad POLITICALLY for Labour, PERSONALLY good for me, and would be MIXED in its result for the economy, as any fule kno - with some good things (falling price of exports), and some nasty things (costlier imports, oil especially, sense of failing global confidence in UK plc).
That’s what I said, because it has the singular advantage of being true. You were the twat claiming that a falling pound was just great news all round, as now we should grow our own olives in Glasgow and drink wine made in Worcester.
If this pointless questioning of my supreme and utter rightness gets any more irritating I will become so grumpy I will have to go and write my thriller.
@163:
Hey, I want no argument. I think you’re completely correct in your analysis, both in what Dave did wrong and what he needs to do to fix it.
re 169 what a stupid comment - about par for this course. What does it mean to start with? If you go from a 20% lead to a 19% one then you have lost a 20% lead, haven’t you? The Tories still have a lead and no poll has shown otherwise.
@164/167:
Let’s say before the official end of Spring (21st June 2009), we will have seen at least two of Mori, ICM, YouGov and ComRes show the Tories on 43+ at the same time Labour are on 29 or below.
You can each have a tenner.
163. I thought Hague’s line about the “achieve nothing government” might get some traction.
They can talk about the bank bailout (that has not worked), helping the unemployed (of which there are more every month) and preventing repossessions (of which there are also more), but at some point the fragile rhetoric must get crushed by reality
I’m only taking one bet, but OK as long as Martin doesn’t want to take it. I did offer him the bet first so he gets first refusal, gentleman’s honour.
The bet was late Spring. As Spring runs 21 Mar to 21 Jun, the last month of the season is 21 May to 21 Jun.
So in order for you to win both ICM and Mori have to show CON 43 + and LAB 29 - simultaneously. It’s a risky bet on my part I’ll accept because you only need it to happen on one single month.
For that reason, it has to be a charity bet. Let me know which charity you want me to pay into if I lose. If you don’t get those numbers then I win.
Cheers.
166, I believe Murray is returning in some capacity. Not as a commentator, I think, perhaps as a pundit.
173 - not taking that – will take it at 21 May onwards (you said *by* late spring in fairness!). If it was 21 June it would then be summer!
email me:
pseudo dot meta at gmail dot com, or find me on Facebook.
JOOI, why only Mori and ICM? Why no YouGov or ComRes? Too volatile?
175. Very risky bobajob. Especially if we have had an early election and a hung parliament giving us Gordon as PM again, by then!
170.
I’ll dig out your posts if I get a minute. Even if I’m wrong I shall enjoy re-reading a classic pb.com barney!
179. That did cross my mind, I must admit. but as it is £10 for charity then I’ll risk it.
“150. I think the issue is that they’re NOT frightened. People are more optimistic than they were a month or so ago, perhaps because they think the crisis has passed, perhaps because it’s Christmas, perhaps both.
by thomas December 17th, 2008 at 2:06 pm”
Well, we weren’t comparing the state of mind of people between now and last month, we were comparing the state of mind of people between now and the 1980s.
But of course neither of us can prove what people are/were actually thinking, so maybe the argument is otiose.
What is true is this:
The economy has shot up the list of public concerns, according to pollsters. It now dominates all other issues, in a way it hasn’t done for a generation: so it is definitely the thing that is most worrying people right now.
That we know.
Also, we know the Labour party is doing its damnedest to frighten the living F*ck out of the voters “the worst recession in sixty years” (Darling), “the worst downturn in living memory” (Jowell).
Labour are either trying to terrify the voters, cause they think it benefits Labour, or they really believe this doomsday shtick. Perhaps a combination of both.
So that’s what Tories have to deal with. An electorate which is very worried about the economy - and an electorate which is being told that things are actually gonna get much much worse - by the government itself.
In that situation Tories do need to Do Something.
178. Will do so tonight. Cheers Martin.
169. Didn’t Labour lose a 25% lead between May/June 2001 and 2005, according to MORI?
182, the problem is that if the voters than believe Labour is either to blame or is making matters worse then Labour will end up walking all over the minefield they’ve planted for the Tories.
Political high explosives have to be handled with care, or you end up with hooks for hands and one eye, and that’s no way to persuade the electorate to get into bed with you.
So the thriller is not going well then, seanT?
Just remember taking a potion to change your personality has a dangerous precedent. One day Tom Knox will take over and you will become the the killer app of pb.com. A viral cell in the DNA of every thread, omnipotent, all seeing.
And so your moniker of Sean (John) Thomas will fade away morphing into a v1agra of a personality.
more and more commentators and main stream economists are now openly talking about the real threat of a depression. certainly everything coming out of the States seems to point towards it. And the US government now desperately trying to print their way out of the problem, as third world nations are wont to do in financial crises. Has it really got to this? Will we do the same? What effect is printing money going to have ? It certainly sounds like they have run out of ideas and this is the last one left. How can this not lead to masssive inflation? How can the government get away with this?
so many questions.
185. Well put.
If the polls are driven by the politics of fear, then all the Tories need to “do” is convince people that the hangover will be worse under Labour. I don’t see any economic data on the horizon that changes that story.
Spin everything, spend anything, achieve nothing government.
Wasn’t that Hague’s accurate line?
190, yeah, didn’t hammer it home enough. Decent line of attack though. The Tories should develop it over Christmas, and a comprehensive critique of government action.
That took 4 years. Cameron has done it in less than 6 months!! Possibly an unprecedented achievement. It is possible that the Tories’ Autumn-horribilis has been one of the worst performances by any party.
A beautiful chart here
188. Have a look at Robert Peston’s blog
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/12/deflation_or_inflation.html
Seant
I don’t even know why you bother arguing with the tories on this site. I mean surely its a truism that their lead has reduced.
I mean it has, so still think the tories will win the next election, as do I. But you have been arguing for ages that the tory lead has been falling.
Now having seeming to accept that this has happened, the tories argue its cus the electorate is think
It really not worth the effort.
192. Really? What about Brown’s perfomance from Autumn 2007 to summer 2008? a swing in the lead of as much as 35% points, if you believe the outlying polls.
192 Of course Jonathan you omit to say that Gordon Brown was the artichect of this lead as he was so pitifully dreadful. Mandleson is now working the dummy and Laboutr have firmed up to core vote. Come the election, People will be asking themselves “5 more years of the saviour of the world”. I dont think so.
174. I’m in, can you let Peter know.
Perhaps Hague was deliberately crap today because he doesn’t want to be offered Osbornes job.
SeanT wrote
“Labour are either trying to terrify the voters, cause they think it benefits Labour, or they really believe this doomsday shtick. Perhaps a combination of both.”
Of course they believe it.
Have you noticed whats going on in the States?
Or Ireland for that matter.
Jonathan
I dont think the tories have done that much wrong - a few errors here and there but not masses. Labour have massively improved. Before they were directionless and infighting - a complete turnoff - they looked more bothered about labour party than running country.
Economic problems have given them a purpose, GB has been able to tow party along with him as they know he has experience in this area. A total transformation.
WHat annoys me about it is the shameful lying that Labour are undertaking. Even now they are saying worst recession for 60 years yet their financial predictions are it will be sorted out next year. Total fabrication. They call the tories for wanting to make cuts, but soon enough they will have to make cuts, when they start printing money as no-one will lend to our basket case economy.
Look at Harman today - blatantly lying her way through questions - they never get called on it so the public probably believe them.
@194:
For the record, I’m a Tory and I think that SeanT is absolutely correct in his analysis.
192. The fact he managed to get them 20% ahead, for the first time in decades under various leaders, seems to have passed you by.
192 Jonathan - Pah! Nothing compared with Neil Kinnock going from a convincing poll lead to losing an election in a matter of days!
Completely O/T
Although I have taken no interest in “Strictly” to date, there appears to be a half decent betting opportunity for this weekend’s final.
With 6,000 votes cast to date, Yahoo!’s online poll has Tom Chambers leading with 45%, Rachel Stevens second with 38% and Lisa Snowdon trailing third on 18%.
Think about it, were the Tories, for the sake of argument, 7% ahead of Labour, 3 days before a General Election, you would be lucky to get odds of 1/3 on them. Yet Tom is available at evens with Ladbrokes, bet365 and others.
I’ve filled my boots, well my slippers anyway!
53. You do realise that if there were an election tomorrow I would vote… Liberal (albeit grudgingly).
This is a two party system and always will be, in our lifetimes at least. If you do not believe that, it is you that needs to wake up chap.
203, That would give a final starting point of:
Stevens - 5
Chambers - 4
Snowdon - 4
(What I suspected but hoped was wrong).
However, it depends who voted in the semi. Chambers asked his friends and family not to vote as he realised he couldn’t be saved. Hopefully (though I am doubtful of this) others will have realised the same.
If it turns out they did and he got very little in the way of votes, the final starts:
Stevens 7
Snowdon 6
Chambers 2
…meaning Chambers cannot win, or even make the last two.
199 They have made a huge mistake. They have nothing to say on the credit crunch that resonates with ordinary people. They’ve flunked the single biggest issue of the past 10 years. Get it?
196 I didn’t realise the Tories are so passive. They took the credit for their high poll ratings. Now when things aren’t so rosy for them, it’s someone else’s fault.
195 And boy did the pb.com Tories trumpet the fall in Labour support early 2008. All I ask is Cameron get’s the same scrutiny and takes at least some of the responsibility for his clear failure. He and GO HAVE ballsed this up and the polling change IS significant.
Martin its weird though some posters on here seem to think that even accepting that things havent gone the tories way slightly or they have made mistakes will cause the roof the fall in.
I mean comeon. Its not hard, I worry that active tories seem to have an inability to be objective. This is really bad because if you believe your own hype then you arn’t gonna do as well as you should.
The fact that tories seem to be blaming the electorate for being thick is EXACTLY the same thing the trots did in the 1980’s.
And look where they are now.
Also - this whole issue of not panicing. Look Labour arn’t going to win a majority, so its not like you need to chuck cameron or anything, what you need to do is focus analyse where you have gone wrong and change tack.
THIS WILL NOT BE DONE IF YOU REFUSE TO ACCEPT THAT THE POLLS ARE RIGHT (THERE ALL ROGUES) OR THAT YOU HAVE MADE MISTAKES (THE PUBLIC ARE THICK)
203, and I put a little on Chambers at 2.3
My position is slightly better now than at the semi stage, but it would be far, far better had the BBC not fiddled the contest.
According to the Chicago Sun-Times, “President-elect Barack Obama’s chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, is reportedly on 21 different taped conversations by the feds — dealing with his boss’ vacant Senate seat.”
http://www.suntimes.com/news/sneed/1333057,CST-NWS-SNEED16.article
Obama on December 9: “I had no contact with the governor or his office, and so we were not, I was not aware of what was happening.”
Emanuel’s on the phone with Blago TWENTY-ONE
209 CONTINUED-
times, and Obama knew nothing about it? The BS-o-meter is registering off the scale.
183. SeanT
In that situation Tories do need to Do Something.
Like what?
It’s easy to do the Corporal Jones impersonation but what exactly should they be doing that they are not?
183. SeanT
In that situation Tories do need to Do Something.
Like what?
It’s easy to do the Corporal Jones impersonation but what exactly should they be doing that they are not?
206, as opposed to Brown’s damaging proposals? What has he achieved?
Unemployment is soaring.
Inflation remains too high and deflation could be a danger in the mid-term (great achivement there).
GDP is shrinking.
This is why Hague’s line of ‘Achieve nothing government’ is good, because it is true.
Undoubtedly the Tories need to sharpen their act, but 2007 showed that they have the mettle to do that, and to hold their nerve.
213. True, that line may work if they keep hammering away with it.
Apologies for the duplication.
209. Oh dear,
Another day, another “pound dives on latesthorrifyingeconomicnews” headline.
Surely Brown can’t play it long in these circumstances? That’s 137,000 more unemployed in the last quarter alone, and the recession proper hasn’t really begun. Leave it a year and he’ll be back 15% behind in the polls - surely better to go asap, hope for a hung parliament, a good enough result to keep him as Labour leader. With the incoming tsunami a minority Tory govt won’t last very long.
Tim i wouldnt normally link to Guido - a bit too right wing - but he notes wisely that Gordon Brown claimed the house price bubble was permanent gain. He believed this. He made a speech to conference about it. He didnt foresee the problem. I think we have established on here that both the LDs and Tories warned him about it. He wants to blame the housing crisis on America, but what happened to Northern Rock and B&B was that people started asking questions. How well are the loans securitised if someone has a 100% or 125% mortgage in a falling market.
GB wants to blame the banks but he structured the financial regulation system in detail. He set up the FSA and the tripartite oversight structure. It has his fingerprints all over it. Gb didnt want to ask too many questions as the coroporation tax, stamp duty etc was funding his own spending splurge.
Now they want to spend money to get out of debt and the pound is tanking because the markets dont trust them with their money. It’s all very well saying everyone agrees, but those who put their money where their mouth is are fleeing sterling. Obama is doing the same and the Euro is benefitting by having the German model at its core - real financial prudence. Surpluses in the good year, increased debt in the bad years.
I particularly like the German spokesman who said that if all the lemmings are going in the same direction do you follow them.
We are in a particularly bad position, because the cupboard is bare. Brown believed his own hype that he had ended boom and bust. Unfortunately this perpetuated a superboom, and now we have a super bust - economy off the edge of a cliff.
Now he believes he has saved the world, or just it’s economy. Either claim is equally ludicrous. But his delusional behaviour will leave us all worse off in the end.
209. S&S - out of interest, how is the massive recent rise in US unemployment playing over there?
Why grudgingly vote Liberal? I voted Tory last time - in Oldham East but will vote enthusiastically for the Libs next time - prob 2009 - as they are best placed to beat Lab - and I really want to get rid of Brown - I really cannot understand present polls - ” its the economy stupid ” - rather ironic Bill
Well as I’m one of those whose been pushing NOM, since my great success, in forecasting GB would call an election Oct/Nov 2007, (you didn’t notice it?) I’m feeling really, really smug.
221. There’s a long way to go yet…..
Let us all pause and reflect on the fact that Brown has declared the new tactic to be ‘get Cameron’. We should take the critical posts of him having ‘blown’leads in the light of that.
@222:
Unless it’s on for a Feb general election.
219- I can speak particularly for the legal industry, and I can say that there is a lot of concern. Just yesterday, a mid-sized firm in Manhattan sought bankruptcy protection after the chairman of the firm was implicated in a massive fraud, a development which will undoubtedly result in more attorneys and other legal staff joining the ranks of the unemployed. More firms are engaging in layoffs every week. Of course, much the same is happening in all sorts of industries and businesses, leaving everyone feeling a bit uneasy for themselves or for people they know. I personally know of two people who have been laid off in the past few weeks and another who has been told to take an unpaid week off to help the business cut costs. It’s a bad situation and looks to worsen over the next several months, if not the next year or so.
Meanwhile, New York’s governor gave a speech yesterday in which he called for spending cuts, but also the largest tax increase in New York history, in order to deal with a $15 billion budget hole. The reaction of average Joes appears to be universally negative.
220. 220 is not by me.
222
As the Tories have managed,to lose a 20% lead, anything can happen.
Woollies to close all stores. More unemployment, but this time it is getting coverage in the press. People can relate to a store they have known all there lives rather than some obscure car parts company. Standby for the momentum to build up in the avalanche.
224. I don’t believe there will be.
ITN reports that :
All 807 Woolworths stores will shut by January 5, with 22,000 permanent staff and 5,000 temporary workers affected, administrators say.
227. Indeed and Labour turned a 10 point lead into a 10 point deficit in a month.
206 - Jonathan I have to disagree with you - both parties are pretty ineffective, but Labour are doing something. This is because they are the government and can do something. This is why the do nothing line works so well. If the tories were in power they would be trying all sorts of things. But as an oppostion they have power to do exactly nothing. Brown wont even let them deal with the civil service yet.
What have labour achieved - nothing
VAT cut - nothing - massive price cuts anyway - shops will just pocket difference and ineffective.
Bank bailout - not lending and probably require a further bailout.
Unemployment - massively increasing.
Prices - massive inflation despite what you might hear from ministers. Prices still going up at 4% with interest rates of 2%. Food prices up 10%. Heating up too - both massively affecting those with lease disposable income.
So why the increase - mortgage payments and petrol prices have provided a window of relief, for the first time in a long while part of our household expenditure has come down.
Labour imploded in the summer and came back from the brink of pushing GB off a cliff. Now they are united and voters prefer united parties (remember the tories and europe). Unless they go for an election now I can only foresee a tory majority.
I think as we hit mass retail redundancies after christmas there will be a further shock. Manufacturing on slide due to lack of finance (see pestons blog today). Service sector going to be tanked due to contaction of demand from all other sectors. Financial sector already floored with mass redundancies. All this will equate to a massive fall in taxes and an inevitable fall in public sector employment.
Which part of all that will labour be able to put on a poster or PPB that will convince voters that they want another 5 years.
209. Have you seen this:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=IfEHan7B6xs
Jesse Jackson Jr. was an informant.
How do you think this effects his chances at taking over the vacant senate seat?
206 Well, is Jonathan right to say “He [Cameron] and GO HAVE ballsed this up and the polling change IS significant.”?
I’d certainly agree with the second half of the sentence (and am currently a Labour buyer for that reason). But I don’t think the first half is correct. IMO the resurgence of Labour is due to three related factors:
- Much improved Labour media-management, morale and discipline. In particular, the crisis had energised Brown and he no longer looks as though he’s about to have a nervous breakdown. Whereas in the summer he looked completely unelectable, was a figure of ridicule and a ‘loser’, now he appears quite credible, albeit still clumsy, dour, and unattractive.
- A genuine feeling amongst some people that the government is doing the right thing in these difficult economic times. I believe they are wrong, and that this feeling will disappear in the face of relentless bad news next year, but it is real today, and it’s foolish to pretend otherwise.
- Massive short-term financial relief for some people, with much reduced m0rtgage payments, price reductions in the shops, and the announcement (albeit massively over-hyped) about repossessions.
I can’t see that in the short-term Cameron and Osborne could have done much better in deflecting this lot. They have set out a longer-term position. We shall see how it plays out next year.
288. Hmmmm yes. Woolies going down plus the rest could lead to a huge jump in unemployment for the next quarter, especially as after what will be dissapointing sales figures for xmas, many stores will either have to cut staff or close entire stores completely.
212. jsfl
I believe I’ve offered plenty of advice to the Tories on here in the last couple of days, and its tedious for everyone if I rehash them, and - moreover - I have to finish chapter 14 of THINK OF GREAT TITLE by Tom Knox by the end of this afternoon (a personal deadline).
So, very briefly, for the last time today, my advice to Tories is:
1. Detoff. Get rid of Grieve and a bunch of the other posh stiffs.
2. Abolish pinstripe in the Tory party. I’m semiserious.
3. Think very hard about moving Osborne, maybe to Party Chairman. I know there are downsides, but the upsides, to my mind, are greater
4. Attack on Iraq. 1 million dead and we still haven’t had an inquiry. It’s a repulsive disgrace. As soon as the last Tommy comes home the Tories should publicly apologise for their role in supporting the war (this neatly links in with Obama entering power).
Thus cleansed of guilt, they can go on the offense. Iraq was the most hideous crime committed by a British government in fifty years.
And lefties hate talking about it. Labour would rather talk about anything else but the lies and corpses of Iraq. And Brown wrote the cheques for that war, and Straw is still in power too.
So go for it. Demand an immediate inquiry and be VERY NOISY about it. Go on and on about the dead piled up high in Basra..
5. Make some dramatic but meaningless economic announcements that deal with the Do Nothing label
6. Find some more women and put them on telly
7. Bring Davis back, and maybe Clarke (if he swears not to talk about Europe)
OK, back to work.
232 - Yet, and yet, the voters take a look at the Tories, and 10 point drops from their lead.
Perhaps the Tory brand is detoxified, only until people look closely.
The tories’ diminishing support has been due to the poor performance of Cameron. This is not just Labour spin - it is a fact.
It’s a typical tory reaction, in adversity, to ignore the real problems they have and instead to identify the tory in the weakest position and scapegoat them.
Cameron could do a lot worse than come out and admit his own shortcomings and promise to do better.
235. As I said a couple of weeks ago - 300,000 more unemployed in Q1. Quite possibly that was an underestimate, too…
232 - Like Major in 1992, they’ll ask who people trust to deal with serious problems. Like it or not, the trend when asked who that is is running in Labour’s favour as Cameron/Osborne are seen as lightweight and disinclined to do anything immediate, whereas Brown is seen as a miserable git but actually rather steady in a storm.
236. Overlong Sean - all you needed to post was ‘the Tories should follow all my personal prejudices and hobbyhorses and all will be well’
238 Gabble - “This is not just Labour spin - it is a fact.”
A ‘fact’? Maybe a better word would be an ‘opinion’.
234 - very similar thoughts!
I think Labour supporters should actually be claiming some credit for their party putting in a credible effort in spite of massive problems, rather picking at DC and GO. I think labour have done - have some successful lines. Seem prepared to say anything, even barefaced lying. But this has all worked. A good turn around. I dont really like the word comeback. It was self inflicted so not a comeback.
234 - very similar thoughts!
I think Labour supporters should actually be claiming some credit for their party putting in a credible effort in spite of massive problems, rather picking at DC and GO. I think labour have done - have some successful lines. Seem prepared to say anything, even barefaced lying. But this has all worked. A good turn around. I dont really like the word comeback. It was self inflicted so not a comeback.
240, which is why the fact that all Brown’s profligate activity has yielded no tangible results should be attacked with vigour.
Meanwhile the pound is now trading under…. 1.08. Another huge fall. It’s breached the fateful 1.10 barrier.
And now parity beckons. It’s already at parity as far as most tourists will be concerned.
An historic and staggering depreciation.
213 The Tories have missed their chance to answer the simple question “How will I be personally better off under the Tories?”, instead they wasted the Autumn
(1) Talking about blame. People still (rightly IMO) blame the bankers for this. Cameron has recently changed his tone (yet again).
(2) Opposing almost for the sake of it any measure the govt propose.
In the meantime, the govt can point to acting against those bankers.
And
* Mortgage Payments Lower
* Petrol Prices Lower (the govt got the blame for high prices, so…)
* VAT below John Major Levels (so “meaningless” the cut is advertised in almost every shop on every high st)
* Winter Fuel Payment Up
Coming soon…
* Child Benefit Higher from Jan
* Pensions Higher from Spring
And yet nothing significant from CCHQ about down to earth kitchen table politics.
Why is this? May I propose that at the end of the day, the top Tories haven’t got an instinct about what it feels like to pay a mortgage etc and would much rather answer the concerns of their city friends.
238. “It’s a typical tory reaction, in adversity, to ignore the real problems they have and instead to identify the tory in the weakest position and scapegoat them.”
What exactly are you talking about?
233- Interesting… I haven’t seen any articles about this yet. The caveat being that the story is based on unnamed sources close to Jackson himself, it appears that Jackson’s wife was snubbed for a political patronage position because Jackson wouldn’t make a $25K donation to Blago. Jackson then squealed to the feds three years later when it became apparent that $25K donations were requested by Blago from others in return for favors. BUT, Jackson was not an informant in the Senate seat matter. Much more information must come out before it will be apparent whether this informant business is helpful to Jackson in general, much less whether it could help him end up scoring the Senate seat.
The fact that Jackson was going to the feds at the same time that Obama was participating in the Blago 2006 re-election effort is also an interesting angle.
246 - SeanT - The exchange rate doesn’t matter.
236/241 - As a non-Tory and occasional pinstripe wearer, I agree wholeheartedly with Sean’s prescription there. I don’t see it at all as personal prejudices and hobbyhorses - just good sense.
251 - (as long as he doesn’t make a fool of himself talking about the economy).
247. “Why is this? May I propose that at the end of the day, the top Tories haven’t got an instinct about what it feels like to pay a mortgage etc and would much rather answer the concerns of their city friends.”
More of your own prejudices seeping out Jonathan, rather than analysing the facts your shifting them to try and fit your theory.
250, but I thought a weak currency meant a weak government. It says so in the Little Brown Book.
253 Fine. Please reject my analysis. Carry on. It’s all fine. Nothing to see here.
241. You know what runnymede, f*ck you, you tedious little squit.
Someone asked me what I thought, so I gave them an honest reply. I didn’t have to write it. I wasn’t showing off. I didn’t crack jokes. I do have to go and do some work.
But I thought - OK - seeing as I’ve been asked, I will take the time and effort to tell them what I think would be good for the Tories, take it or leave it. Because I really do want you to win.
It’s just my advice, but I was asked.
Or do I? The sulky, juvenile and asinine reaction of Tories on here, to genuine and well-meant advice, eptiomised by people like YOU, is putting me right off the party.
Meanwhile, Obama named Time ‘Person of the Year’.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7787887.stm
Didn’t see that coming. Did you?
“246 - SeanT - The exchange rate doesn’t matter.
by tim December 17th, 2008 at 3:20 pm”
A lie. It matters to importers and tourists. It matters to exporters and visitors. Therefore it matters. And to will matter to us all a great deal if the depreciation goes much further.
256 -I’m sure Osborne and Cameron are familiar with the Grandmaster Flash anti cocaine classic, White Lines (Don’t do it).
Perhaps they could adapt it with lyrics by some writer or other to Pinstripes (Don’t do it)
Picking up on what seant is saying above, I suggest anyone of a nervous disposition avoids watching £ on the FX markets at the moment. Today alone £ is down over 3% against the Euro, 2.5% against the Yen and 4% against the CHF. It is even down .75% against the $ after the Fed dropped US interest rates to just 0.25% yesterday evening (every other currency I can see is up on the $ today).
259 Tough on pinstripes and the causes of pinstripes.
240
Brown is a cavitating propellor. There is a great deal of thrashing about, lots of bubbles, but in the end a great deal of energy is wasted and the ship is going nowhere.
However, in my ‘ketchup’ theory of political campaigning, as long as the electorate is being ’shaken up’ they could move significantly in Brown’s direction if he provides the right incentive.
249. I think you’re on to a loser with the connection between Obama and Biago.
Do you really think that a corrupt politician who doesn’t want anyone to know about his crimes would tell a presidential nominee who doesn’t want to be damaged by any scandals and would probably be quite willing to sacrifice Biago about his crimes? And then Obama or Emmanuel or whoever would respond with “oh that’s alright then”?
I don’t. Not even thinking about idealism just the self-interest of everyone involved. Even if Obama is up to his neck in it, I would expect plausible deniability, there won’t be a smoking gun. And then the public would probably respond with a collective ‘meh’ like the Ecclestone scandal in the early days of new labour.
255. I never said it was all fine, just your assumptions are based on your own prejudices about the tory leadership rather than any analysis. Trying to act as if because I dissagree with you means I think there’s nothing wrong is another assumption, just as incorrect and based just as much on your own prejudices.
225 - You should get involved in IP. It has never been a better time to be an IP lawyer.
253. Correct or not , most people will be of the same opinion. Fact is that the shadow cabinet all sound and look as if they are loaded and would not know what it was to have to even consider what something cost. Rational or not people are of the opinion that labour are down the food chain a good bit and have at least some time in their lives had to consider the cost of things and therefore understand how the plebs are struggling. Apart from Davis all the SC look and sound like the rich ponces they are. PS I am not a Labour supporter.
247 The Tories have missed their chance to answer the simple question “How will I be personally better off under the Tories?”
Ah, I think this is actually the heart of it. Labour believe that, if in doubt, borrow and bribe so that people think they will be personally better off in the short-term. David Cameron, quite rightly in my view, is not going down that route, because it’s either totally dishonest, or stores up longer-term problems, or both.
Jonathan, this is not Cameron and Osborne ballsing up. It’s called integrity, something Labour has a bit of problem with.
And the truth is that the Tories have not missed their chance. If an election were to be held immediately, that might be true. But there is plenty of time.
256. Oh dear - did I get a bit close to the bone there?
It’s impossible to take your analyses seriously. You flip-flop from week to week, inventing new theories, trying (occasionally) to fit the facts to them or just repeating them over and over again in the hope people will believe you. And then you discard these theories for (often diametrically opposed) new ones.
You attempt to disguise this with lashings of rhetorical flourish and gratuitous insults - especially if challenged. It’s a juvenile approach that convinces no-one.
236. Here’s some titles:
THE VESPERTINE PROPHECY
A DARKER SHADE OF BLACK
TESTAMENT OF A LAPSED PARAGON
SLEIGHT OF MIND
CHAINED INNOCENCE
etc.,etc.
253 - He does have a point though, doesn’t he? The top Tories do not come from the day-to-day world that most people in this country inhabit.
270. Neither does anyone in the government, apart perhaps from their token postman.
266. “Apart from Davis all the SC look and sound like the rich ponces they are.”
Sadly Davis is not in the Shadow Cabinet any more.
“Rational or not people are of the opinion that labour are down the food chain a good bit and have at least some time in their lives had to consider the cost of things and therefore understand how the plebs are struggling.”
If Labour carry on using James Purnell as their poster boy (emphasis on the boy) people will soon be disabused of that notion.
267 - Ah, the integrity of revealing the contents of private conversations; of cycling to work for the cameras while cars follow you with your papers. Yes, integrity and the Tories really do go together like peas in a pod.
270, Labour and the Lib Dems are no different. Is the deputy leader of the Tories the niece of nobility?
264
It’s called “an opinion” and opinions are allowed on pb.com. I might be right. Sometimes distance, provides a good perspective you know. You should be pleased that my gob is too big and I just have to give Tories advice.
But from your enlightened point of view, what is wrong with Cameron and his motley crew? Why not surprise us with some genuine insight!
I say they have played a part in their Autumn from Hell.
236. OK fine. Here’s my response
1. Irrelevant class bigotry
2. Irrelevant PR nonsense
3. Political suicide (as I’ve said before and would have applied to sacking Darling if Brown had followed that route)
4. Iraq is becoming an irrelevance - the troops are coming home and with the economy tanking, obsessing over the past would be considered navel gazing and avoiding the real issue.
5. Freezing council tax clearly doesn’t count. Having criticised Labour for creating a mountain of debt face valid criticism for doing the same. The electorate may be showing their gratitude for Labour’s handout but they are not stupid. Virtually all commentators are saying it’s going to get worse. Announcing new giveaways is not going to meet with credibility.
6. Oh they should drag them off the street? It may be Maria Miller and one or two others do come to prominence next year but it should be on ability not purely gender.
7. Davis perhaps if he wants a job - he’s said he is not bothered and in any case it could now be divisive. Clarke, no because he likes saying what he thinks and has virtually ruled out a comeback (I suspect because of Euroscepticism).
In the middle of an economic crisis your recipe would put Labour 5 points ahead in the polls at least because it undermines the 40% or so who favour the Conservatives. Your 7 point plan is a recipe for trivialising the party. These are serious times and need serious, thought through costed proposals, dramatic yes but meaningful as well.
272. How exactly does Lord Mandelson of Fop fit in that picture??
Re: Tory attack plan. Coffee House suggests
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3093966/three-suggestions-for-how-the-tories-can-get-their-groove-back.thtml
365- IP is always one of the better areas of law, but I don’t agree that there “has never been a better time to be an IP lawyer.” About ten years ago was a better time to be ANY kind of lawyer, IP or otherwise. Unfortunately, with law firms going on starvation rations as their clients either downsize or go out of business, every area of law has been affected. IP should remain one of the best areas relatively speaking, but it isn’t the gravy train or guaranteed high salary it once was for those wishing to break in to the profession.
Well I appreciated it Seant - like I said earlier I don’t know why you bother.
279- sorry, that’s for 265.
In the last thread, when I was sleeping, Chris A asked me: LS how on earth can a rise of the SNP cause your prediction to have the Tories only 2 short. Are you seriously suggesting that a switch from Labour to the SNP in Scotland will mean an extra 19 Tory MPs in Scotland? If you are you’ve left cloud cuckoo land far far away.
If the Tories have a lower swing in Scotland than in GB, then they have a higher swing in England and Wales (where their targets are) than in GB.
279 S&S - Blimey! Things must be bad if we have to start feeling sorry for US lawyers!
I think the tory toff stuff is way over-played. People are pretty forgiving of circumstances beyond an individual’s control.
What’s far more damaging is top tories’ membership of the Bullingdon Club. This has nothing to do with class and everything to do with superiority, exclusiveness and arrogance.
278 The Spectator calls on Cameron to move George Osborne to Party Chairman!!
Tim - i think you have a point about the tory brand not being detoxified - i think that what labour is doing is toxifying itself. Plenty of people out there hate the tories still.
Jonathan - fair point but
what action against bankers - have we tried any of the bad ones for fraud - no we have penalised them all including the good ones. Imagine the outcry on the left if all teachers had to be fingerprinted or some such because of a couple of bad apples.
I agree about mortgage payments and petrol prices - however BoE independently sets interest rates, and oil price set on world markets. Labour do get credit, but they were hammered in previous polls.
VAT - ridiculous. I keep on noticing that i get 2p of various things. Not really earth shattering. They should have just took VAT off fuel. I’d warrant a guess that fuel payment, child benefit and pension have not increased in line with inflation, in particular because for those poorest in society inflation is running at much higher levels. I mean does the fact that memory sticks have halved in price affect them that much.
Tim - exchange rates matter when we can no longer sell our debt to the chinese. We will then have to cut public sector jobs. Or is that an appealing prospect to you.
279 - Insolvency and Employment Law are pretty good areas at the moment. Of course these people are in multi-disciplinary practices so the downturn is good for their long-term career but not for their short term pay as they are kept by their higher billing corporate colleagues in the better times, and now the support runs the other way.
263- As the cliche goes, ‘it isn’t the crime, it’s the cover up.’ Why has Obama been so evasive and even Clintonian in tapdancing around the issue of his communications with Blago? Why has Emanuel gone into hiding? Where is the new politics we heard so much about during the campaign? My first guess was much like yours, i.e., that there were no crooked dealings between Obama and Blago over the Senate seat. But then why are we still waiting for Obama to come forward with the facts regarding what apparently were extensive contacts between his staff and Blago regarding the Senate seat? There must be something embarrassing there or we’d have heard more by now.
It is also shameful how the mainstream media alternately praise Obama to the skies for his non-existent openness and transparency in this matter, on the one hand, and use their “intuition” to announce there’s nothing of interest to be found in Obama’s connections to Blago, on the other, even though they’ve done nothing to uncover to the facts.
284 - Gabble if you went to uni I am sure you made some decisions there that you would not make now. How you live your life is what matters not where you came from.
272. Although I have to agree with Mike that Ed Balls has improved from a very low base with his media presentation.
with re: the economy, it is still early days, Labour has played some good cards but are effectively redistributing money that doesn’t exist (it might exist at some point in the future, but then that means taxes will go up to pay for cuts now).
I think that the Tories got very good at getting their messages across to opinion formers, but not so good at getting to the general public. This is where the return of Mandelson and Campbell has been effective. Labour’s messaging is to the ordinary punter, it may be wrong, it may be lies, but it gets through. The soundbite stuff and messaging is where the Tories are not doing so well.
However, it is all early days and Labour is doing a great job of destroying the country’s future prospects for short term political gain. Everything that we have had under Labour is unsustainable. Police numbers - unsustainable, tax cuts - unsustainable, public sector pensions - unsustainable, public sector size - unsustainable….the list goes on.
268. lol. Not close to the bone, no. You think I care about the opinions of a boring party hack like you?
No, I care that the Tory party is possibly gonna lose the election, when I believe it is very winnable: and I desparately want the Tories to win - despite the presence of unlovely specimens like you - because I want Lisbon stopped. And I don’t want the economy ruined.
So when well-meant advice to Tories is ignored or ridiculed or trashed or abused as trolling (and I don’t just mean from me, I also mean from people like bobajob or penny4them or whoeever, people who might actually have the occasional good idea that might actually help the Tories) then it gets me angry.
Please yourselves though. Ignoring the people is a good way to lose an election. Just Do Nothing instead. Sound advice for the Do Nothing party.
Tsk.
236
6. Find some more women and put them on telly
Yep! some young ladies from your local l*p dancing club in the PPB might do the trick, seant
256
‘ells bells and I thought the left were supposed to be quarrelsome! I hate to think what’ll happen if a poll comes out giving Labour a lead, it’ll be seant and runnynose naming seconds.
291. ‘ignoring the people’? hahaha don’t you mean ‘ignoring me’?
276. Fair enough. We disagree profoundly - but that’s fine.
At least your reaction to advice is not to burst a heammorhoid, and then start shouting incoherently, like that old woman runnymede.
I suspect Seans views are reflected in the focus groups that Cameron will be looking at before he reshuffles, rather than those who can’t see what a turn off these twits are.
In addition.
If Osborne is moved to Party Chairman would Hague take the Chancellorship.
he may like the distance and the cash that he’s got at the moment.
I suspect Seans views are reflected in the focus groups that Cameron will be looking at before he reshuffles, rather than those who can’t see what a turn off these twits are.
In addition.
If Osborne is moved to Party Chairman would Hague take the Chancellorship.
he may like the distance and the cash that he’s got at the moment.
283- I’ll forgive you if you don’t shed too many tears!
287- It’s true that bankruptcy lawyers will be doing fine in this climate. For corporate and securities lawyers, however, the abyss is looming large.
291. “and I desperately want the Tories to win - despite the presence of unlovely specimens like you - because I want Lisbon stopped.”
Even assuming the Tories win the next election, there must be a fair chance Lisbon will already be in force, ie. if there isn’t a GE until 2010, and the Irish vote ‘Yes’.
284 Gabble. “What’s far more damaging is top tories’ membership of the Bullingdon Club. This has nothing to do with class and everything to do with superiority, exclusiveness and arrogance.”
Wrong!
Past membership of the Bullingdon Club is damaging only to those of a left-of-centre persuasion such as yourself, who are keen on Politics and follow it closely.
Everyone else, doesn’t care about what the young and daft did when at University. (For example, I don’t care if Labour types flirted with Communism in their younger days - we all grow up)
How many people in the public at large have even heard of the Bullingdon Club? It is not an issue with the public at large - only political anorak like us on the blogsphere.
Was I the only person to have problems with the site?
@296:
It’s either gonna be Hague or Clarke that replaces Osborne, let’s be honest.
See the reason why I think Osbourne being moved and say - bringing in hague or clarke to shadow chancellor is that the media would love it.
They didn’t say that brown was desperate bringing back madelson.
They went mental and seized a narrative that madlson was bringing labour back into it.
If you moved osbourne you would get a day or two off tories under pressure but then the press would want to talk about hague swats down darling etc etc.
All the stories would be about that loveable mr hague coming back and giving the labour party the kicking it deserves.
The media are ready for another change in narrative, but Cameron has to have the cullions to catalyse it.
In fact just swap hague and ozzie.
Job done!
303 Martin - Independent of what cullions Cameron has, I suspect the narrative will become ‘Pound crashes as Brown’s panic measures fail’
204 - Would Hague take it?
He likes the cash, and perhaps he may not want to be too closely tied to Cameron.
Perhaps thats why he took a dive at PMQs today!
re 192 well Jonathan if you want to use that chart which shows that the Tories have gone from an average of about 46% to 39% over about 4 months. They can’t do anything about LibDems who swap back to Labour so your bit about “losing a 20+ lead” is as stupid now as it was when you first posted it. And not for the first time I might say as you are one of those astroturfers who repeat things endlessly.
It’s true that a -7% performance by the Tories over 4 months is not brilliant, but using your same chart how would you describe Labour going from 44% to 30% in just two months last autumn. Twice as useless perhaps?
Do please let me have an answer.
305, it wont quite be that as the pound falling is what you would expect if you borrow so much and smash your interest rates into nothing.
I really don’t think the depreciating currency will get much traction, after all it floats for a reason. Imagine if labour had to artifically maintain it at a level!!!!!
That would be a total disaster!
299. Caring about Lisbon is a complete waste of neurons as, short of an armed intifadah, the hateful thing is going to be ratified no matter what.
300 Me. I had a problem for a few minutes as well.
307.
Last autumn was one of the biggest political screw ups ever by the labour party. A total disaster.
I really wouldn’t judge yourselves by that.
Last autumn labour did the political equivilent of Leeds utd. The tories are just doing an arsenal, but for whatever reason are in denial about it!
Crikey, I have just come back from the local town where i live. I was looking for a branch of a national recruitment agency that i had seen open just a few weeks ago. The building was all closed up and for let, i went into the next door office to see if they had moved. The woman said ye indeed they had all been made redundant, she was also closing up. She was an estate agent, she said the economy was in very hard times. I agreed!
I then went into the main shopping areas, I don’t go into the Town centre very often but even in a few weeks the amount of To Let has mushroomed, I had noticed it more in terms of property lets.
Things have tracked significantly downward in the last few weeks - post Xmas will be carnage.
Meanwhile we have that idoit Brown wasting money going out to Iraq to reannounce something leaked last week! Brown has no shame and plays with parliament like their his prvate parts
Will Brown stop at nothing to MaCavity his way out of making the economic mess worse here? Brown has not changed one jot! He is still CHICKEN! 
The tories are playing the long game. If in 6 months time unemployment is still rising and GDP is still falling, they will have a powerful argument in “So what did that 20 billion in borrowing do apart from waste taxpayers money?”
The tories should be saying something like “Labour borrows when the economy is good and they borrow when the economy is bad, thats all they know how to do”.
250:
the exchange rate doesn’t matter?
No, I suppose not, if you don’t eat, or wear clothes, or use fuel of any kind.
IDIOT
314.
It will help UK exporters.
It will help the UK Tourist Industry.
As for imports,the pound is not that weak against the dollar and commodity prices are falling throught the floor anyway.
As for domestic inflation, deflation is the bigger worry.
CHILL OUT ABOUT THE CURRENCY ALREADY
I find it odd that The Spectator and some on here think that moving Osborne to party chairman is the answer for the Conservatives. The key issue is the economy and Osborne has failed to get a clear Conservative line across.
Unless the Conservative line really is lower interest rates, save our friends the bankers (both done by the Labour government), don’t cut taxes, perhaps even raise them, cut spending.
If he was Party chairman would he still waffle about the economy - the new shadow chancellor might be miffed or would he talk about the other great policies the Tories have: Housing - no answer. Iraq , Afghanistan - same as Labour. Transport - A policy(must be lonely!) - no 3rd runway. Defence - well want to spend more but can’t so don’t say anything! Europe - don’t anyone mention Europe.
re 282 but there are nine times as many voters in E&W as in Scotland.
Let’s assume Tory swing in GB of +5% and Tory swing in Scotland of 0%, then to get the GB average correct the swing in E&W will only be marginally over 5%.
New thread - Has Gord found the secret to PMQs?
As to Tories ballsing up and Labour having a good recession isn’t the point that the Labour policy solution is easier to sell irrespective of whether it is right? Do nothing Tories is to my mind an effective slogan because most people believe something must be done. In many cases doing something makes it worse but it looks good.
306. Tim, the reason why Hague did not do a braying parliamentry display is how does it look to the outside world where companies are going bust, people losing their jobs because of Labour’s economic and partisanship over ensuring guarentees to banks over business loans etc. I was flabberghast to hear Harman say that it would cost nothing to do but they would still not do anything about it? Labour really have lost it when they don’t understand how to put confidence into a system. Or are they manipulating this recession for ideological political advantage?
Stars & Stripes
I don’t actually think Obama’s done anything wrong, but I think he has been too secretive about his role.
I was livid at him telling a journalist “Don’t waste your question” when she asked about Blagojevich. That was haughty and arrogant - you get to answer the question or dodge the question, Mr President-Elect, you don’t get to change it.
Rahm Emanuel has probably given a forthright view of who he wanted to get it, a few expletives etc etc. I cannot for the life of me believe he tried to bribe Blagojevich (he’s more of a threatening type than an inducements man), but if he did, this is Special Prosecutor territory.
Tim you are a very silly boy.
268. Runnymede: “It’s a juvenile approach that convinces no-one.”
Why anyone would take lessons from the Zzz-Man on being juvenile is beyond me.