Now ICM puts the Tories below 40%
December 16th, 2008
Could this make it “game on” for a 2009 election
The long-awaited Guardian ICM poll for December is just out and has the Tories down from 45% in November to 37% which must put more force behind the early election band-wagon
But, as predicted, the Lib Dems are up to 19% and Labour’s share, whilst still up 3, is still down at 33% - which is the lowest of all the current polling.
Critically these numbers put the Tories below the 40% mark which most pundits regarded as the key level to be certain to come out with most seats even if not an overall majority.
Putting these numbers into the UK Polling Report seat calculator and we get CON 279: LAB 295: LD 47 which would leave Labour thirty seats short of an overall majority but, critically, ahead of the Tories.
There’s little doubt that this will push the spread market towards Labour. I’ve just been onto IG Index and have sold the Tories at 338 seats to add to my previous sell position at 344.
We still have two or three more surveys to come before Christmas - I’m expecting a MORI poll in the next day or so, another survey by ComRes and YouGov.
Month of the election betting.
General election - most seats betting.
Mike Smithson
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14. True. Replacing Osborne would look weak, plus Osborne has been stepping up his criticism of the government which is beginning to have an effect.
by Cuddles December 16th, 2008 at 7:54 am
From 2 threads ago: Some effect!
Dritter?
surely a mistake? or failing that how about an apology to Comm Res?
Tories down by seven.
Hang on to you hats, Daves going to get his chopper out.
Not bad Lib Dem figures either.
I guess the Lib Dems would take 19% going into a General Election. Nick Clegg as Kingmaker!
Ho! Ho! Ho! Ain’t we got fun!
145 last thread - If labour lose on votes but gain enough seats that presages major problems, especially in the current climate. As someone who is awaiting a true PR system it couldn’t be better, a government elected even though they ‘lost’.
Bring on the chaos, it might as well be now rather than later.
Ho! Ho! Ho! Ain’t we got fun!
Disasterous poll for the Tories this. Utterly disasterous. Get David Davis and Ken Clakre in the shadow cabinet now!
The Lib-Dem figure looks realistic for the general election, but the Tories are going to have to up their game before that starts. Luckily they have 18 months for Brown to shoot himself in the foot, which he will.
repost from last thread-
I’ve been saying for a while that the Tories need to rebut Labour lies about “do nothing”. This poll supports that view. The Tories should have a package that should be called the “smarter spending” or something. They dont want to just have Cameron doing this. They need a package and they should blitz the lying Labour toerags every time they say “do nothing” or pretend that the Tories are going to cut spending on everything.
They also need to nail the lying one as a lying smarmy POS. I bet the lying toad wouldnt be able to name the four marines he praised in Afghanistan this week.
(Oh, and Tim, you remember asking about long term vs short term - it’s the most potential as PM Cameron 34-30, or back in the November poll, the Conservative lead in the “who would you be better off under” was 39-30. I’m answering now because the figures are to hand as I analyse the shifts. Brown winning the most trusted on the economy/difficult decisions one - both in my view, short term.)
FPT
Ahem. I believe I predicted a single figure ICM Tory lead. Though I think I said 3-9%, and had a more precise stab at seven, so I was casting my net fairly widely.
But still. Remember the fourth law of pb.com:
SeanT is always right*.
(*Except when he’s catastrophically wrong.)
Bizarrely, this is something of an *as you were* poll, I reckon. Only the most deluded of Tories (i.e. most of those on here) still believed the Conservatives were 10%+ ahead. I’m sure (at least I hope) wiser heads at the top of the party have already twigged THERE IS A PROBLEM.
Four words of advice for Tories: posh, Davis, women, soon.
Evening all
OK - This ICM poll confirms that the Conservative lead has indeed narrowed substantially. It’s much as I expected, although the Conservative share is a tad lowew and the LibDems a tad higher.
If you want to trade, Sporting Index are still up at 340-346 Con, 236-242 Labour. (IGIndex are two seats lower for the Conservatives and four seats higher for Labour.)
It will be very interesting to see if the spreads now shift. It’s hard to see them being maintained at the current levels given that all the most recent polls are well into NOM territory.
My partner has just been called by ICM in the last 10 minutes. As well as the voting intension questions (including likelihood to vote and who did you vote for in last GE) they asked about the proposed 3rd runway at Heathrow: Are you more or less likely to vote Labour if the runway gets the go-ahead? Being a greeny-red she said less likely.
In case anyone is wondering why someone in Bishop Auckland is being asked about the Heathrow runway, we were called at our weekday abode in west London.
7. A coalition of Brown and Clegg during the worst recession for a generation will be a disaster, but damned interesting politics.
Before we all get excited, here’s the ICM poll from this time last year:
Telephone
1004 18-19 Dec 2007
39%
34%
18%
9%
5%
13 - SPIN shifted 2 seats in the last couple of minutes..
Where’s test? It’s another rogue poll, do you think?
If one goes back to the ComRes thread, there are lots of people saying the methodology is dodgy and ICM would show the truth. Even though there are a few more polls to come before Xmas, surely we can now agree that this is roughly the actual position - five successive polls with different methodology have all shown the Tories just slightly ahead. I think the previous ICM was probably too high, but it was accepted here as the temple of truth then, so now they’ve fallen into line with the others, we can move on to what it means.
Should Labour call an election on this basis? Of course not. But the momentum is startling after a long period of stasis. Essentially we’ve been winning the argument over recent weeks, to the point that quite a few people who voted Tory in 2005 are having another think - ‘change’ is normally welcome, but not every change is for the better.
Goodness me - I repeat my regular mantra - this is not a time for the Conservatives to panic - let the draper bots and other speculators do their worst. DC will lead the Tories to a comfortable thumping win when the next GE comes. I have no doubt of it at all.
Re: 3. No apology needed to Comm. Res. - polls are polls as are MoEs.
None of this alters the fact that the British public will not vote GB back into office after the mess he has got this country in. If he thinks they will let him call an elect… oops I forgot he can’t he is too busy saving the world!
9. Why is this such a shock to you? How could you not see this was happening?
Really. I despair. I’ve been telling Tories on here for some time, to put it politely, that their lead has collapsed, and that the polls we’re seeing are not all *rogues*.
Yet you lot persisted in your fatuous denial. Now maybe some sense will sink in. Perhaps even Mrs Test will have to acknowledge the harsh new reality.
I’ll not hold me breath.
Interestingly, 33% is the lowest Labour share of the recent batch of polls. I think this just proves that the electorate is very volatile and people keep changing their minds regularly. They’re angry at Labour over the state of the economy but they’re not yet ready to embrace Cameron. I’m still of the view that there won’t be an election until May 2010, Labour isn’t close enough to the Tories to make that a viable proposition, unless there is a scheme to get a Tory government either with a small majority or no majority and hope that it makes a complete balls of things!
10. Surely he ran out of feet to shoot a long time ago.
BTW, for those of you who claim that Gordon tells lies, what do you make of the finding that he’s more honest than Dave?
3. Why? ComRes is still possibly 4 points adrift and as Mike has shown there is something questionable about their past vote weighting (as well as other anomalies).
4 points in the current environment is the difference between a majority and a hung parliament.
ComRes still need to take a long hard look at their methodology, just as Mori had to after the London Mayoral Elections
Now we can talk like men…..and women !
Finally we get a bit of shape to the events of the past month.
This is my testament for today.Buy Labour to Sell.
Do not weep you Tories,do not blub,do not go into denial.The weather is cloudy but soon your day in the sun will come.
Taking off my Mystic Meg hat and donning my betting-cap,I would have to say that the tempter betting-wise is NOM…..which I now see has been taken whilst I posted.
A big Wochuwyz ‘hello’ to aaron/bushy.
Good poll for Labour, I think they should call an election, in the same way that I think mandelson should be the next mayoral candidate.
18. “we’ve been winning the argument over recent weeks, to the point that quite a few people who voted Tory in 2005 are having another think” Do me a favour!!
23. A lot of people are stupid?
18 - that’s a fair assessment, Nick. But you should be wary of projecting the momentum any further forward since it gets progressively harder to win over swing voters - essentially Labour’s renaissance has picked off the “low hanging fruit” of the 20%+ leads.
Almost identical to last years,
ICM/Guardian 2007-12-19 39 34 18 +5
23 - what 28 said, and the media have given him an astoundingly free ride.
Yay!
18- Dr. Palmer: “‘change’ is normally welcome, but not every change is for the better.”
You’re preaching to the choir, Nick.
Sean not sure what Davis, posh women and soon, have to do with the price of fish. It Is The Economy Stupid. From the Guardian:
“In particular, voters are sceptical of the opposition’s ability to handle the economy. Asked to compare Cameron and Gordon Brown on a series of characteristics, Brown pulls ahead by 11 points as the person most likely to get the economy back on track. He scores 35% against 24% for Cameron.”
27 Every other post is from Palmer. Is he now officially a member of ZanuLabs Team DraperBot?
18 - actually, your final assessment is wrong, Nick - I don’t think the Tory voters of 2005 are rethinking; the Tory flirters of 2008 are rethinking. A 5% Tory poll lead still represents a 4% swing from the 2005 result.
21 “Interestingly, 33% is the lowest Labour share of the recent batch of polls”
But the LibDem share is a higher. I think this may reflect some of the problems in weighting Labour vs LibDem voters.
See posts 175 and 312 of the last-but-one thread (”Would Gord really bet the farm on ComRes numbers?”)
30. Do you now accept you have a problem, Sally? You’ve blown a 20 point lead in three months - and it’s down to 5. If the trend continues - and who’s to say it won’t? - Labour will have a healthy lead by next Spring, or even earlier.
Now, of course, you can still sit back and say the recession means Labour will lose popularity in the end - and you may be right. But you may very well be wrong. So far the evidence is that, the worse it gets, the better Labour do.
Perhaps it’s time to end the complacency and/or denial and for Tories to do something about it? Perhaps it’s time to realise that the shadow cabinet that was popular and liked when times were good simply doesn’t work as well in a recession.
I’m not criticising you personally, nor any of the hardworking activists blah blah, but seeing as I was roundly abused on here for merely pointing out what has now been proven - that you are in trouble - perhaps it’s time to listen rather than get all hysterical.
Just an idea.
34. Mr Fox is the man to look after the chicken coop. He swears he won’t eat any more chickens.
This is unbelievable, I’ve spoken to thousands of people in Tescos and they all think Gordon Brown is just like Robert Mugabe.When he said that wrong word in Parliament I thought there would be a popular movement to remove him.
Everyone can see that Cameron and Osborne are qualified to lead this country, I mean its obvious to anyone isn’t it.
Its all Labour spin and the people who don’t think Mandelson is behind this are all stupid and its all the Telegraphs fault and ……………………………………………..
Now we’ve got that out of the way who’s Dave going to pin this on and who’s heading out of the door?
9. GIN - Get a grip! Being in front is a real disaster isn’t it? Once people start taking the reduced mortgage and fuels rates for granted (Spring) and recession bites the situation will look a lot different.
Things could be bad as they were at times during the Brown Bounce. Most of us would have killed for poll results like this last September.
I notice Kettle thinks Labour ‘will lose the campaign’.
23 et al I know that lots of right wing folk cant stand GB, much like lots of left wing folk couldn’t stand Margaret Thatcher but that didnt stop her winning elections. It can be very difficult to get your head around the fact that other folk dont share your very strongly views.
I wonder what the psychological effect would be on the Tories if they failed to win a fourth general election, would cameron stay in post? I also wonder what kind of government we’d get on the basis of this poll. We live in interesting times.
35 Mr Palmer needs some incontinence pants, 33% and he’s peeing himself.. goes to show how aful car crash Gordo was in the spring and Summer. What I would like to see is a marginals poll, or the detail from ICM that shows how it is in the regions. IMHO UNS is and always has been tosh. Mike might be able to provide an insight into the regional figures, but it might be the effect of lower mortgage costs.
No point in lower mortgage costs if you lose your job..
12 - OK, but on that basis I’m righter than right, having predicted 5-10 (but closer to five). Can I appear as Tom Knox’s psephological guru. Please.
Mike having to seriously back pedal on his earlier thread of Let’s get real about a 2009 Q1-Q2 election.
Meanwhile, over recent days, Ladbrokes have halved their odds on a February ‘09 GE from 33-1 to 16-1.
40. Dave himself is the man sitting closest to the exit. Changing the Shadow Cabinet won’t make any difference whatsoever. Who care what set of doomed middle aged men are in charge. The public, through the polls, have demonstrated that they like borrowing, spending and tax cuts. They dislike people telling them the truth. So Dave should promise to borrow more, spend more and cut more taxes than MUGABROWN and LABA’ATH. In the event that he happens to win a GE these promises can always be kept in the pre-delivery stage for as long as necessary.
Sally [42] doesn’t completely answer Sean, whose medication (see earlier today) is clearly kicking in.
34. But that is the counsel of despair: “there’s nothing Tories can do, because Brown is simply more trusted on the economy. And the falling mortgage rates/falling fuel prices are just POPULAR”.
There is, of course, something in that. Maybe there is nothing the Tories can do. Maybe it is a Falklands-type once-in-a-generation thing: an emotive and visceral reaction to a crisis of capitalism in which no Conservative party would really prosper.
However I believe the Tories could at least try something different: deliver their message in a more persuasive and empathetic way.
Cameron calling Brown “sick” and “macho” does not cut it.
29: no, on that point my canvassing IS relevant. The position is not that we’ve won back all but 3% of our 2005 voters. It’s that we’ve lost more than that, but have won over some 2005 Tories and LibDems, as well as doing well among newer voters (who include both young people and immigrants, both of whom may admittedly be less certain to vote). There is some potential for winning back some more of the lost 2005 vote and getting us up to the high 30s and a modest lead.
That said, I think normal people will switch off politics from now for a couple of weeks, so further movement may need to await the new year.
38 - I don’t think anyone ever believed the 20% leads. Did they? It was pretty obvious there was a perfect storm against Brown at the time and plenty of labour voters were just refusing to say they’d vote. Elections focus people’s minds more.
I wouldn’t have imagined, given the underlying party support, that there would ever have been more than about a 10% tory lead if the election had been held then. We seem to be back in a position where the curmudgeonly on either side are giving their support now though.
indeed seanT @ 50, indeed.
44 - depends what the defeat is. If it’s hung parliament territory with less than a dozen seats majority, he’s stay on and would probably be in power in a couple of years time.
Remember that he’s more likely to have a parliamentary party after the next election with “his” sort of people in anyway.
If he doesn’t get more than twenty seats back, he’s toast. Though in all honesty that seems extremely unlikely.
Yesterday, I wrote:
Recent ICM polls:
41-32-18 (25 Sep, Guardian)
42-30-17 (2 Oct, Guardian)
42-30-21 (19 Oct, Guardian)
43-30-18 (6 Nov, Sunday Telegraph)
42-31-19 (21 Nov, Sunday Mirror)
45-30-18 (26 Nov, Guardian)
Looking at that, anything with Con in the region 41-43 is “no change, last poll was an outlier”. 44-46 is “last poll confirmed, Con strengthening”.
So the conclusion is that this poll is both significant and significantly depressing. Wake up, Britons!
51 - interesting. Of course there will always be churn but it seems that you are suggesting the electorate is more churny than normal.
As an aside, presumably at most elections Lab to Con switchers outnumber Con to Lab switchers, regardless of overall swing. The trouble is the Tories have more “Con to dead” switchers and Labour have more “child to Lab” switchers.
I have got a feeling this is going to be one of those threads in the future that will be returned to over and over again. We already have Nick Palmer doing his you’re boys took one hell of a beating at post 18 and with Tims sarcastic post at 40 it could be a real what comes after hubris thread.
but for now Labour are doing well in the run up to Christmas. There is no doubt about it.
Get this !
Wells has it as CON 279 LAB 295 LD 47.
Sporting Index have it CON 279 LAB 295 LD 43.5.
You pays your money and you takes your choice.Such a shame Wells doesn’t take a bet (sad face).
23. Good news management. Nothing more.
41. FFS. While there is no need to panic, the Tories need to combat the worst of the “do nothing” line. The Tories have already made most of their policy pronouncements vis-a-vis a stimulus package to match the PBR,
Loan guarantees (50bn)
JSA
Tax shifts for small businesses
They should then put this into a single package together with some extras -
government funding for extra electrification or something
And call it
“Smarter spending” or “Sensible stimulus”.
They should be describing their (oafish) loan guarantee scheme as a solid guarantee for solid businesses to help hard working families.
What is wrong with their news management? The PBR was a disaster - but thanks to the constant claims from the lying Labourites it contrasts with a “do nothing” conservative party, that would apparently slash spending on everything including aircraft carriers. Someone told me on this site that most people wouldnt know who John Hutton was or what he’d said. The problem isnt about Hutton or the aircraft carriers, it’s that this line is used on every damn spending argument. It’s why it has to be nailed down and killed.
EdP. I’m too jealous of you getting to see films three months before general release to answer your question about Will Smith!! I’ll see everything before the Oscars but you’re building up a frustrating backlog.
Incidentally I thought we collectively decided ‘Zanu Labour’ was consigned to the likes of Martin Day and Voreas not to interesting posters like yourself?
25 URW - Yes, much as expected I think. SPIN seem to be waking up fast: 5 seats now in a few minutes.
For punters, the question when to switch over to selling Labour. Some way to go, I would say.
As I’ve been saying for ages, early 2009 is Brown’s best bet (but probably not until April or May, because as Nick P has been saying, anything earlier would look too opportunistic). Will he go for it? Search me!
BTW It’s nothing to do with mistakes by Cameron. It’s entirely due to better Labour media management, better morale, reductions in interest rates, reductions in prices wrongly attributed to the VAT cut, etc. In other words, mainly perceptions about the economy. Not good medium- or long-term news for Labour.
Sorry.
Wells as stated above.
Sporting Index CON 342 LAB 240 LD 43.5.
re 58. I’ve just sold the Tories on SPIN at 339 seats.
48. Panurge, I’ve a lot of respect for your opinion - as you have been saying for months that Labour would just get more and more popular as the recession worsened.
I had my doubts at first - but you’ve been proved totally right.
You might well be right on this, too: the only option is for the Tories to promise the earth and hope for the best. But it’s going to look madly incoherent if they did that now.
I think my remedy is the only one (apart from your intriguing but ultra risky option) that might - possibly - do something in the short term. A complete revamp of the Shadow Cab.
Time to detoff.
And time for me to go for a bracing walk to Waterstones and buy some presents. Ciaociao.
52. ukpaul: I don’t think anyone ever believed the 20% leads. Did they?
I didn’t. It was obvious at the time that the dip in Labour share was through Labour non-voters who would return with time.
re 63. Now SPIN have suspended their market.
IG Index is still open with the Tories on 336-342.
This surely will drop further. They won’t let me put any more on.
44. Actually Cameron is always meant to be of the opinion that it would take 2 elections to get back into power. Bear in mind that the Tories are starting off from a dreadfully low base as a result of the disasters of 1997 and 2001. Even if it’s a hung parliament after the GE, Cameron would still have gained about 70-80 seats, a pretty decent performance! Howard’s resignation after 2005 came as a shock to most commentators who believed he’d done enough to stay on. Kinnock barely made any impression on Thatcher’s majority in 1987 yet he got another chance. So if Cameron gets some substantial gains will he be forced to step down. A lot of the rank and file got carried away during the summer and thought it was a shoe in but I think that if you’d told Cameron on becoming leader 3 years ago that no more than 18 months from a GE he’d be 5 points up on Labour he’d have been very happy!
Sporting Index now suspenders.Shame ‘Wells’ aren’t open for business.
Panic Panic - December election now certainty !
62, 63 - SPIN have finally suspended the market. IGIndex still open at 242-248 Labour, 336-342 Conservative.
NBC’s Washington Bureau Chief is apparently finally overwhelmed with shame and/or embarrassment over the supine treatment the Washington Press Corps has given to Obama: “Our job is to hold him to account,” Whitaker said, adding that he thinks “we’re going to have to get tougher.”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/1208/NBCs_Whitaker_on_press_corps_Were_going_to_have_to_get_tougher_.html
The Bureau Chief’s statement was apparently prompted by this pathetic display by a “journalist” at Obama’s most recent appearance:
“During today’s press conference, President-elect Obama brushed off a question from Tribune reporter John McCormick about the Blagojevich scandal, and what interaction any advisers had with the Illinois Governor. “I don’t want you to waste your question,” Obama said. McCormick asked another Blago-related question, and Obama said he wouldn’t confirm a report in the Tribune from this weekend. Obama also said that the U.S. attorney’s office asked his team to withhold an internal review until next week. After a few attempts, the reporter finally followed up by asking who had the better jump shot: Obama or incoming education secretary Arne Duncan?”
When was the last time a hard-nosed British reporter asked Gordon Brown about his jump shot?
Nick P:
I’ve never seen you gloat quite like this before. It must be the hope that you may not see your P45 after the next election.
“but have won over some 2005 Tories and LibDems”
It doesn’t surprise me, in many ways, considering that there has been a distinct blue colour (dare I say Thatcherite) to many of Labour’s recent policies. Brown did say he admired her after all. Of course it can’t last but tell me what does it feel like joining, in your eyes, the dark side in all but name? It must be quite unnerving?
It is clear that the electorate are stupid and don’t understand the problem. I am waiting for the first to say the Conservatives just have to get their message over better.
On this poll, my projector gives:
Con 302
Lab 280
LD 37
Nat 8
Oth 5
(with, of course, the proviso that the regional adjustment is not yet available).
This poll actually feels about right.
The most depressing thing is that the Tories really aren’t doing anything wrong - the public just seem to be too pig-headed to realise that the economy is screwed, it’s Gordon Brown’s fault, and the longer that he stays in he;ll make it worse, not better.
Panic (as, I see, seanT is still tediously advising) would only make things worse. Keep your head, Cameron, and just hope that the public wakes up.
60 surely thats libellous I don’t think I have ever posted Zanulab. I do think think listening to Mugabe blame everybody but himself for his country’s crisis reminds me very much of gutless Gordon.
64. I agree that a bit of ethnic cleansing of the jeunesse doree in the Shadow Cabinet would not hurt. Get some women, a BME or two, ideally somebody disabled and/or openly gay and people who refer the lavatory as ‘the toilet’ in there. However, it has to be combined with some eye catching policies that are rooted in the fantasy economics of our times. Why not promise the earth? Who cares? Who knows what’s going to happen with the economy? Certainly not Mugabrown or The Decameron.
74. “Panic (as, I see, seanT is still tediously advising) would only make things worse. Keep your head, Cameron, and just hope that the public wakes up.”
In other words - Do Nothing. That’s good advice for the Do Nothing party. lol.
64. It’s not detoff - its the economy. Nor do they need to promise the earth. They just need to be seen
1) Promising to spend something upfront
2) Helping those who need it
3) Being sensible in their spending
The loan guarantees, JSA and tax shifts are all policy and all would result in some spending, JSA, tax up front with some neutralisation later, loan guarantees a lot of spending later.
They need not be seen as incoherent. Their plan is far more conservative than the Labour splurge - £20 billion on a VAT cut that will benefit the rich the most who will then save it.
The Tories need to manage the story better.
I’m not convinced that the polls are wholly correct, but I think they show a firming of Labour support. To stop this process, the Tories need to talk about how they are effing Caring Conservatives rather than allowing themselves to be painted as the second coming of Mrs T.
Another problem is that because they dont have a package and they rely too much on Dave, it’s too bitty. The whole shadow Cabinet need to be seen talking about ways in which the Tories will help people through the recession WHILE still being the responsible party.
Repeat those Wells figures.
CON 279 LAB 295 LD 47.
Now this is an intelligent man (Wells) but his figures are worse than idiotic.As I said yesterday, Baxter and Wells are the real mugs at the table.
Sporting and IG were willing a few moments ago to be BUYERS of Tory Seats in the mid-high 330s.OK,they may be making a small mistake but W&B are making huge mistakes.
60 Sorry Roger, I only did it to raise a response in a moment of mischief!
Seven Pounds is extraordinary. Go and watch it with a very open mind - get rid of any preconceptions about Will Smith and his previous roles. If he’s not nominated for an Oscar, I will be eating headgear.
Any more, and I’ll spoil it for you.
61 It’s Christmas, poll results much like last two Christmases - annoying Tories are less than 40% but while I agree the Conservatives need to get their message through (Ken’s “smart spending”) for example I think its January/February that will show whether Dave needs a desperation shuffle or not.
Last January/February Labour’s rating closed with Conservatives (IIRC they led in one poll) by April/May the disaster of the local elections showed what a false dawn it had been.
73 Icarus - “I am waiting for the first to say the Conservatives just have to get their message over better.”
The Conservatives have to remember one thing: There isn’t going to be an election tomorrow. In fact, there isn’t going to be an election for at least three months, and almost certainly substantially longer.
Plenty of time to turn 38% back into a consistent 42-45%.
Lots of work to do, of course, but it is being done. It was never going to be easy, although last summer when Brown looked totally unelectable one might have been fogiven for forgotting that.
79 - but that’s partly the difference between projecting results on today’s polls and predicting the result of a future election (probably in 2010). The seat predictor models are imperfect but if we had these polls in April 2010 I’m sure the spreads would be 20 seats lower at least.
77. seanT: In other words - Do Nothing
Not “do nothing”, but “do nothing suicidal” like, for instance, change the shadow chancellor.
Ken is right, and you are wrong.
70 Evening Richard
In case you have been wondering, I have been following events closely. If I haven’t posted, it’s because URW has said it all at 25. No need for repetition.
Btw, I hve been in touch with Tim, from whom I will be heartlessly snatching £20 idc.
There is no doubt that the Conservative support has fallen with the successful labelling of them as the Do Nothing Party . Their supporters on here and leadership presumably believe it is right to concentrate on reducing the national debt but what level of unemployment would they accept to do so successfully 5,6 or 7 million - a price that the majority of voters would not pay . They cling to the hope that the recession will bite and Labour will suffer as a consequence hence their constant running down of the economy , the pound and searching out every little piece of not so good news that they can blame Labour for .
The 2010 election will be decided on whether there are clear signs that the worst of the recession is over , if so Labour will be reelected and the Do Nothing Party will lose again . If not then Labour will lose and lose heavily .
for Nick Palmer. I have saved every word of this thread, and hope to enjoy quoting it back to you at the appropriate moment.
Incidentally, the only person who should be crowing is Mike Smithson, who IIRC said ICM would show the Lib Dems in the 18-20% range….
The change from the ICM poll before last is Con -4 Lab +4 LD nc.
The opinion polls have changed out of all recognition since Mandleson and Campbell returned. They are doing a splendid job and the next election will be an overwhelming victory for Labour. They should call an election as soon as possible. The stupidity of The British People will be there saviour. Or one could nip off and place a very large wager on a landslide Tory win as The Public wake up to the disaster around them.
77. SeanT I am beginning to think that you have been seduced by the dark side.
I agree Cameron has to up his game a bit at the right time (just before Xmas isn’t the right time) but your repetition of Brown’s ‘do nothing’ propaganda does nothing to advance the cause of those of us who would see him gone.
72. jsfl: Nick P: I’ve never seen you gloat quite like this before. It must be the hope that you may not see your P45 after the next election.
I still project him losing (based on this poll per my 74), albeit only by 4%.
Good news this - let’s get the election called asap and then we can at least stop speculating over when it finally will happen and having to hang on every poll until possibly 2010. The Tories would at last be able to lay out their policies clearly without fear of more plagiarism and a true battle could be had (working assumption, they do have some!)
I still can’t believe Labour will turn their rattly old ship around and do think once Xmas has gone and a whole new tough year has started with all it’s problems to come then Labour will head below 30 again.
If I’m wrong and they miraculously did pull it off in Feb, then at least this polling uncertainty would be resolved for a good few years and we could instead look forward to the Olympics…
38 Sean I never thought we didn’t have a ‘problem’ in the sense that I was never complacent about a 20 point lead; it was not a lead across the board [ICM never gave us such a lead] and came when Brown was getting a daily thrashing - a situation which would have come to end one way or another - possibly with his removal.
I wasn’t hysterical then and I am not conditions are very different and much harder for us. Despite that, the ICM of only a couple of weeks ago was a record high.
Cameron has a problem in that he doesn’t know when an election will be and if he acts as if it’s next month, he might sacrifice an election next year. He has to gamble. I expect the leadership to plan ahead but be ready in case.
I have reason to believe they thought through how to deal with falling behind weeks ago.
Your assumptions seem to be on the basis that if we don’t do what you think we should we are complacent.
Not so.
And the obvious conclusion from this poll is that Brown should go to the country ASAP whilst the people who matter still think they’re better off. By 2010 even the idiotic British public should have realised what a disaster Brown has been, is and will continue to be.
LS at 74: “The most depressing thing is that the Tories really aren’t doing anything wrong - the public just seem to be too pig-headed to realise that the economy is screwed, it’s Gordon Brown’s fault, and the longer that he stays in he;ll make it worse, not better.”
I don’t think the public are being pig-headed in that sense. I think they fully grasp the enormity of the disaster and they’re terrified.
The point is that, for better or for worse, Gordon Brown is the PM and there’s nothing to be done about that unless we have a GE. So that leaves just 2 choices open to the general public. We can either desperately hope that Gordon Brown’s prescription is the right one and that he can get us out of this mess or else we can believe that Gordon Brown’s prescription is wrong and we’re all doomed because by the time any alternative government gets in it’ll be too late to do much about anything.
Myself, I’m firmly in the Gordon Brown is wrong and we’re all doomed camp - but I can certainly see why so many people are desperately falling in behind him. That’s the choice if there’s to be no election until 2010 - hope Gordon is correct or give up all hope.
81. Desperation shuffle
Ted now you’re at it! Shish!
85 PtP - Yes, URW has it right. The question is, when to turn.
BTW You might be able to get tim to give you some more free money. He has eccentric views about how long Cameron will remain Conservative Party leader. Mind you, as a modern Caring Conservative I can’t condone fleecing the naive… Well, not in public, anyway.
aaron @ 83.I believe that both Baxter and Wells projectors are so deeply flawed as to be just like Snowy’s projector “just a bit of fun.”
I love a bit of fun I do but maybe some people are impressed by the technology and like to have a bet thereon.
This is why I think they are both very deeply flawed.I think that on a Seat by Seat basis Labour will get slaughtered comparatively whatever the polls say.
Marginal Seats will go BLUE,Labour could do better than predicted in the immaterial North but worse in the Midlands ,South and South West.
Now it’s my turn to be a mug.I believe that even given parity on the day the next GE is called,the Tories could compete and even win most Seats.Labour would not get an Overall.
That was ‘mug talk’ I know, I know !
86 Economics not your strong point really Mark is it. Where do you get that unemployment prediction from. I hope we don’t have a severe recession for at the least reason that I could well lose my job, and I believe Tessa Jowell was the last person to massively talk down the economy.
For the first time in a while the polling seems to have converged (it’s also convenient that all 5 main pollsters have been in the field at around the same time).
The Conservatives are in the 37-41 range, Labour 33-36 and the Lib Dems 11-19. The most interesting point for me is that the relationship between Lib Dem and Labour vote is not as clear as it has been (as demonstrated by Mike).
Compare ICM to Populus and You Gov for example who all have the Labour lead in the same region.
Populus - Con +1 Lab +2 LD -3
You Gov - Con +3 Lab +2 LD -4
The Lib Dems do not appear to be taking a disproportionate number of Labour votes. This brings into question the view that a higher Lib Dem vote equals a lower Labour vote. In turn this makes significant levels of tactical voting unlikely.
Who knows what will happen next? Labour might continue to gain as the economic situation worsens or fall-back. A Labour majority is still highly unlikely but a hung parliament has become a distinct possibility.
On the question of election timing - Brown himself will not have made a decision. His default position will be May 2010 on the ’something may turn up’ theory’. However if Labour have a lead in the polls I would expect him to call one - but a pre-April poll is unlikely for the reasons Nick has put forward.
90. I did say ‘hope’
;o)
89. It’s not Cameron that needs to up his game. He’s doing a great job. The problem is that he now faces a united Labour government with a game plan. It’s no longer enough to wheel out Dave for policy announcements. With the economy as the subject of play and with the game one of “who’s going to be best”, you dont want to be labelled as “do nothing” party or as the people who were uncaring in the past.
When the game changed from week to week, Dave comes out and beats up Gordon and random ministers. Shadow ministers ambush their opposite numbers.
Now, there is only one game in town, the economy. Every time a minister has to defend his policy he puts the boot into the Conservatives. To battle this narrative, the Tories need a proper full-court press with a narrative. Instead they have Dave talking good stuff - but in this battle, it requires every shadow minister parroting a line. And it shouldnt be “too much debt”.
Why is there such a flurry of polls before Christmas?
101. Nor should it be “abolished boom and bust” or “not fixed the roof while the sun was shining”.
grrr. Phone ate my post. 18 nick, Sean T, not me, said I’d called the last poll rogue- I said it sounded right. Don’t put your Cornish endorser’s words in my mouth!
Lousy poll, but we’ll have better ones. On this poll Broxtowe would still go blue.
I would love an election right now. I have less than no doubt we’d win it.
Lets not forget that even on this poll and without exposure for DC given by an election campaign, the Tories are still six points clear!
102 - “Why is there such a flurry of polls before Christmas?”
Don’t know - I’d prefer a flurry of snow though.
105. Me too. A week before Christmas doesn’t seem to be the most stable or necessary occasion to have four or five opinion polls in the space of week.
…unless we are expecting an election of course. ZOMG!
I was anticipating a high single digit or low teens lead for the Tories.
However. It is not the time to panic. They’ve got the Christmas period to work their socks off getting a plan of attack together. They must hammer the government and stretch their lead to 8-10 points in the New Year.
Downside for Labour is that they’re likely to lose support during a campaign whereas both Tories and Lib Dems will gain some.
Draper’s new article on the Guardian is delicious… oh the mindset… http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/16/labour-poll-guardian-icm-cameron-brown
What we are really seeing is a shift towards Labour values. A smart, active state, looking out for people and doing what it can to protect them is anathema to the small government, laissez faire, Hayek-quoting Tories. The choice is increasingly clear: a government that is on your side, or a government that, because of its own ideological blinkers and inexperience, will in effect leave you on your own.
Greetings from Tallinn, where it is now a toasty minus 10.
At the risk of bursting Nick Palmer’s tentatively inflating bubble, or having the steeples drenched by SeanT, it really does seem that this poll, as Mike kind of hints, is actually all about the Lib Dems numbers. When the Lib Dems are above 18%, then the election result is massively less certain. The piece on Pb.com a couple of years or so ago, analysing the maths of hung Parliaments, still looks like a valid point of view to me. Meanwhile, when the Lib Dems are below 18%, we move towards a Parliamentary majority- usually for the Conservatives. Given the equal coverage that an election imposes, starting the campaign at 19% there is still the slight chance that the Lib Dems even gain a higher percentage than 2005.
If these ICM numbers were repeated across the board, then the reality of a substantial block of Lib Dem MPs would need to be factored in. At the moment, the string of fairly crappy polls for the Lib Dems elsewhere means that most pundits think they will have too few MPs to be able to influence the formation of a new government- one way or another. However, the barnacle qualities of Lib Dems in certain seats is often underestimated: vide Cheltenham.
Even in quite poor scenarios with the gap so narrow, even 47 MPs gives the Lib Dems veto rights on either party- I suspect the inky scribes will start to think about this more fully pretty soon, if this poll is not a rogue, that is…
Mike Smithson, I think your theory that the Tory ratings go up when Cameron gets exposure and go down when he doesn’t can now safely be ditched.
Not that it was wrong at the time, just that these things change over time. Most good betting systems have a limited shelf life…
Richard Nabavi- You ask the question ‘When(to get back on the Tories)’?
This is a bit like bottom-fishing.I have a hanging Sell of the Tories at 334.0.I want to see despair from the Tories and then I will switch for sure.
Al;l the while I will be keeping a weather-eye on related Time Markets to see if there is a clue.
106 - It is because December polls have been brought forward to avoid Christmas.
80. When I first read your post I thought I had read “Stephen Pound is extraordinary”. I thought I had been catapulted into an alternate universe by a reality distortion field.
110, not been watching that much news, but from what I have seen Cameron’s had bugger all airtime.
A Frank Luntz focus group on what people think of the shadow cabinet and cabinet would make good TV at the moment.
Although I suspect that Daves tetchiness at being asked about a reshuffle probably reflects some focus groups he’s been seeing.
Labour are only on 33% for crying out load. Why panic?
SPIN have now restored their market: Con 332-338, Lab 244-250. IGIndex still better value for Labour buyers/Con sellers at 336-342 and 242-248
108. That’s not a new strand of thought. It’s almost a verbatim copy of the bolleaux that de Villepin used to peddle during the dix minutes when he was PM of France.
115 tim i would love to see that haha.
Test @ 104. “nick, Sean T, not me, said I’d called the last poll rogue- I said it sounded right. Don’t put your Cornish endorser’s words in my mouth!”
Oh really, Mrs Test? This is what you ACTUALLY said about the last poll (Ipsos-Mori a couple of days ago):
“Look at the vote shares. 41% seems perfectly possible as the Tory share, but low. Lab seem too high, libs too low.”
So, according to you, you said at the time this poll “sounded right”, apart from the fact that you believed the poll had the Tory figure too low, the Labour figure too high, and the Lib figure too low.
In other words, you thought this poll sounded “right” in all respects, apart from the fact that you thought this poll got every single party share wrong.
Puh-lease. You said it was a dud poll, just as you have called every poll for the last week a rogue.
YOU were wrong.
108- If it’s in the Guardian, it must be true.
Why doesn’t everyone just calm down?
This poll is almost bang in line with recent polls. The Labour rating is actually lower than most recent polls.
Despite almost no publicity for Cameron and the blitz of Brown publicity and initiatives, the Conservatives are still 5% ahead.
2 key points to remember:
1) There is a limit to the amount of initiatives Brown can announce. The next couple of months will be quieter on this front. Even if he does keep announcing things, he runs a high risk of “voter inititaive fatigue” - people will feel he’s said it all before. It’s going to be very hard for him to keep up a sense of having new things to say.
2) In an election campaign, Cameron will get equal coverage. All the evidence is that when people see him, they like him. Even if he only started a GE campaign level, I expect he would end up well ahead.
All these posts about the Shadow Cabinet are total nonsense. The Shadow Cabinet did not prevent much higher Conservative leads back in the Summer.
Cameron should maintain his current strategy and ignore these absurd calls for him to panic.
116. This is what I find so amusing. The idea that Labour are somehow in command when they are in the low 30s and still behind the Tories, despite the fact that Brown is completely dominating the news agenda.
Imagine how that 33 - 38 could end up after a general election campaign with even coverage? 30 - 41 would be a very different scenario indeed. No doubt Labour have picked up on this themselves.
In December last year, there were 7 polls, with fieldwork ending on the 7th (Ipsos-MORI), 9th (Populus), 14th (YouGov), 16th (ComRes), 19th (ICM and YouGov) and 27th (YouGov).
This year, there have been five so far (one from each pollster).
Let’s see how the media react to all this - they have secured their fight at the next election having bigged up Brown from his depths - do they now start to stick the knife in for leaving us naked in the snow for this recession?
Will you be serving a full term if you win the election Mr Brown?
Five more years of Nu Labour. Five more years of Mandelson, Five more years of Brown, the great Malaise. There is so much to work with once a date is named, and people have to consider the next five years, not just who will provide them with 90p off their DVD player and record their phone calls for ‘posterity’
The future’s bright, the future’s Palmer?
18 “Essentially we’ve been winning the argument over recent weeks,”
sorry nick i don’t even think you believe this…
this is only my opinion of course, but for most people the recession has yet to take effect, while the talk of it is everywhere, so people think GB is having a good war. sales are on, mortgages cheaper etc etc. no real effect for a lot of people perhaps.
where i work, bonuses were down 50-70% today, and pay frozen. that’s going to be bank-wide i’m sure. love ‘em or hate ‘em, the bonus babies prop up any amount of businesses in 1Q each year, and that’s gone. retail is going to fall off a cliff after xmas shopping.
we all know this, but some seem to be forgetting this and focusing on short-term poll variations…
look at the newsflow today. hundreds of millions wated in pensions and transport, education calamities, etc. labour are failing dismally left, right and centre, and their economic strength is a house of cards.
don’t panic my blue friends!
101. I agree that Cameron is doing well (I have far more faith in him than I did 18 months ago) but the Up his game is generic and can have many connotations such as up his policy game.
I agree that ‘too much debt’, whilst an essential issue, is not a broad enough narrative to catch the imagination of the electorate and that needs to be widened. However, when the game is changing week to week, as you point out, it is hard to set out a narrative that won’t unravel in the following weeks.
So the question is when should Cameron set out his narrative? If Cameron launches something too early then Brown will just adopt it (he has taken just about every other policy proposal)and if he leaves it too late he won’t get his message across.
My hunch is that (unless Brown goes for a snap election and I don’t believe he will) the real battle will start in the Spring in the run up to the Euros and continue on (hopefully with a springboard of more gains from the Euros)until Brown calls for the election.
What happens in the next couple of months, I don’t think will matter too much and potentially in that time the polls might move either way dependent of events.
109 - This set of polls do not indicate that it is all about the Lib Dem share. These are each of the polls with the Lib Dem share and the Tory lead:
Mori LD 11 Lead 5
CR LD 14 Lead 1
You Gov LD 15 Lead 6
Populus LD 16 Lead 4
ICM LD 19 Lead 5
There doesn’t seem much correlation there. The number of Lib Dem MPs will influence the lead needed to get an overall majority. However it will only affect it at the margin - by 1 or 2 points. Also, the relationship between Lib Dem vote share and number of MPs is very uneven (compare 1997 and 1992).
108 This is Draper’s funniest line:-
“Labour, at its best, does policy; the Tories never seem to rise above politics”
I think he got confused between Labour and the Tories. Gordon chases headlines, he has a grid to do exactly that, that is all he does and that is why we a £1trn in debt end of story.
108. Draper’s one of those people that if I were to hear he’d been savaged to death by feral dogs my first thought would be for the welfare of the animals.
Double-barrelled cannon for Balls and Draper?
96 Fleece them, Richard, fleece them!
“122.Cameron should maintain his current strategy and ignore these absurd calls for him to panic.”
GAH!!!!! Who the F is calling on Cameron to “panic”? We’re just saying that maybe there is a teensy-weensy bit of a minor problem-ette when your lead goes from 20 points to 5 in 12 weeks.
I mean, sure, sit back on your laurels if you like. You’re still ahead - way to go. But which was is the trend pointing? Or doesn’t that matter?
I give up. I really am out for a stroll.
It is an interesting question whether Cameron would swing votes the Tory way during an election campaign. A year ago everything in the garden was rosy and Cameron had a smile that matched the surroundings. Now times are harder and dour Gordon better matches the mood. To most people he looks serious and sincere. Something Cameron is struggling to match.
Well, I was wrong in my prediction for ICM. And, like plenty of others, I thought Labour were finished in the Summer.
In the longer term, I still think the recession is bad news for them, as recessions tend to be bad for incumbents, (I don’t think 1992 disproves that - the Conservatives lost 80% of their majority, after all) and hard times tend to mean people move Rightwards in outlook.
The Conservatives don’t need to panic, after all, they’re clearly ahead in most polls, and are only back to where they’ve been most of the time Cameron’s been leader. They certainly need to take on board most of what Ken’s saying - save that I believe that criticism of excessive borrowing does resonate with quite a few voters - particularly older voters (whose turnout is higher than the average).
I was not wrong. “perfectly possible, touch low” is sounds about right for Our share, which is the figure that matters - look at shares.
You and only you said “rogue poll”.
If I think a poll is rogue I will say so - comres is looking rogue to me right now. Speaking as a Tory activist, I think David Cameron is safe ignoring the advice of globetrotting thriller king Tom Knox - in the marginals we are looking good (so say recent subsamples) and a six point headline lead is fine for an election.
And the lead will increase before Gordon gets the guts to call one. Six point lead in the marginals, let alone headline, scared him off last year.
So wassail Sean! And you’ll find Tory footsoldiers are desperate for an election. Sooner the better.
I am beginning to regret telling Martin Day to chill and have a cup of coffee. It would cheer me up no end to see Martin posting that Labour are DOOMED.
Dr Palmer has gone quiet suddenly, its he in the changing room one wonders? It strikes me as bizarre that Dr Palmer is wetting himself with Labour on 33%. To me it shows how desperate they are. Come January with appalling job losses, firms continuing to destock, the fallout is going to be massive.
Did anyone listen to Moneybox live, there was a chap on asking about the law in having to reapply for his own job. The news in Jan/Feb/March is going to be catastrophically bad.
132, except when he’s laughing about failing banks and claiming to have saved the world.
132 Roger - Maybe, but just consider the following:
2005: Michael Howard vs Tony Blair
2009/10: David Cameron vs Gordon Brown.
It’s hard to argue that the contrast isn’t worth at the very least a few percentage points.
133 It’s your second paragraph that punters need to hang onto, SeanF.
Like you, I find these polls surprising. Like URW, I do not expect Labour to defy gravity forever.
But polls are polls and if you are a punter you have to respect them, especially when a clear pattern is forming.
Am I the only one whose in the mood for a by-election, in some southern Lab-Con marginal?
73, Well I am gonna say the Conservatives should get their message over better, but I think I am entitled to say it, because I have been saying it ever since I joined this site
I don’t think Cameron should panic either and I don’t think he will. But what he does need to do is to try and communicate at a level which the average voter understands.
I have been saying ever since I came to this site that the average voter is politically and economically dumb. I can come up with no other explanation for the polling figures we have seen recently. The average voter takes a very short termist view and if he is better off in his pocket due to mortgage cuts and all the panic xmas sales, then he will believe the recession is not effecting him badly and therefore Labour must be doing a good job.
So what if the £ has fallen 12% against the Euro in the past few months. If his holiday next year costs him £100 extra and he is £200 a month better off from the mortgage cut, then he will think the fall in the value of the £ is irrelevant to him. Anyway, the £ may improve in the next six months, so it is of no great concern to him.
The same mentality will apply when the chickens start to come home to roost in less than a year’s time and certainly by 2010. Mr average voter will not feel the benefit of his mortgage cut so much. He will not be getting a pay rise next year and he may well either have lost his job or have someone very close to him who has lost their job.
Labour seems to have undestood and tapped into the mentality of the average dumb voter. Therefore it is reasonable to assume they will know that his vote is only good for as long as it takes for the economy to go so bad that it effects Mr average voter personally. That is why Labour WILL go for an early election.
As far as betting is concerned, it’s pretty simple. If you still believe it will be a 2010 election, then sell Labour seats like there is no tomorrow. Personally I would not advise it.
Oh by the way. Sky reporting rumours that the police are just about to drop Greengate. Apparently the interim report was rumoured worse than expected.
141 jsfl - Surprise, surprise!
132 Don’t you live in France? If “most” french people like him they are welcome to him.
143. Indeed. Now Smith should be forced to go and apologise to Parliament for their pre-emptive action!
No. 21 “Interestingly, 33% is the lowest Labour share of the recent batch of polls. I think this just proves that the electorate is very volatile and people keep changing their minds regularly.”
Yes, I’m wondering how sticky they are as well.
Last night Roger, I believe, said that the polls were tightening to which there was a little debate. Yes, some polls are tighten but then you get ones that have widened - MORI’s last three polls, Sunday’s YouGov.
I wonder if it is about recurring doubts about Brown and that may put Labour off an early election as they aren’t confident that they are getting the momentum in the polls as they tighten then widen then tighten.
It’s similar to the election that never was. The polls were going really strongly in Labour’s favour then it was all called off on the basis of a marginals poll which cast doubt on their national poll strength.
It also reminds me of Mike’s post here about how Brown could have been Labour’s weakest link in 1997.
I wonder if the Conservatives, and others who appear to be going light on Brown recently, are looking for Labour to gain some traction so Brown does call an election.
The summer nadir didn’t “get him out” and the only way to get him out is an election as soon as possible. Since he is the only person who can call that maybe they are laying off and allowing what looks like slippage so he calls one and then they’ll go out to undermine him as they know his appeal is not that strong with the electorate.
LS ONLINE VOTE EXTRAPOLATOR
I am pleased to announce the first full projection from my Vote Extrapolator.
For an election held on 3 June 2010, I project:
Con 38.4%
Lab 31.3%
LD 19.7%
In the next House of Commons:
Con 314
Lab 260
LD 37
SNP 11
PC 5
Respect 2
Green 1
KHHC 1
Independent 1
Con 12 short of majority.
7,15 - Good points. Where is all this drivel coming from about Brown ‘winning’ some time in the next six to eighteen months? Win? WTF?!?!? The Brown-Clegg nuptials will be a most amusing spectacle. Assuming that Mrs. Brown doesn’t find out about it, just how would Nicola Clegg find it, I mean, being forced to share a duvet with The Moron? Who’d scramble the eggs? Would they squeeze the toothpaste tube from different ends and bicker their way to the divorce courts? Yes. Before you could say ‘Jack Straw’.
Come on. Think! Gordo is now BEHIND in the polls and he cut and run last year when he was miles AHEAD. Gordo knows Labour will get its arse caned in the English constitutencies. There’s next to nothing his Chief Orcs, Mandy and Campby, can do about that. Largest party? Maybe. Tiny majority? Maybe. But a genuinely solid Gordo WIN!?!?! Get real! The Blair days are over and even The Moron must have a sense that this is the current lay of the land.
Now sky reporting report says police action was lawful but questions methods used but still possible Greengate to be dropped. It’s a fudge.
One assumes that if the CPS drop the case Green cannot sue???????? or can he?
148 jsfl - Of course. A policeman is hardly going to say his colleagues acted illegally, is he? Anyway, there’s no suggestion that they were acting illegally, just stupidly. Expect more flim-flam containing phrases like ‘lessons to be learned’ ‘procedures to be reviewed’ ‘insufficient evidence’ ‘not in public interest’ blah blah
Followed by confirmation that no charges will be brought.
The piece on Pb.com a couple of years or so ago, analysing the maths of hung Parliaments….
You mean this one?
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/12/16/rod-crosby-is-a-hung-parliament-97-likely/
149. He could sue for Wrongfull Arrest if not charged. If charged the whole thing changes with a possibility of Malicious Prosecution.
151 Crosby Baby! Suddenly you’re back in fashion!!
151. Indeed, I was just highlighting the change in reporting before people started to jump on it.
140 The public are not dumb, short termist they may be and if Brown has helped them over christmas by pressuring Mervyn King to cut interest rates then its no wonder they feel slightly friendlier towards him. However there is a sting in all these polls for Gordon beyond just the headline figure(which lets remember says he will lose) and that is that when asked who is best for the future poll after poll says Cameron. The public are quite consistent in this. Basically they are saying Gordon sort out the current mess and when you call an election as your deserved punishment for getting us here in the first place we will give you your p45 and quite right to.
152
Who would he summons…. Could be very interesting…
155. voreas: The public are not dumb, short termist they may be
In the current circumstances, the two are equivalent.
Just popped in.
Good poll and great headline! The Tories are haemorraging their support because they have nothing substantial to say on THE big issue of the day.
Cameron’s Autumn from Hell is one of the worst polling performances ever.
152. He could sue either the Police or any other, if he can show that the police were acting on false information that they couldn’t have known to be false (Martin v. Watson) Three ways it can be binned: NFA (no further action) taken by Police - when they’re sure no comeback on them - ‘Insufficient Evidence’ or, more likely, ‘Not in the public Interest’ the last two decisions taken by CPS.
158 A great poll for Labour is 5 points behind. LOL.
157 not really. If everyone is saying tomorrow is going to be dreadful then rationally you may as well just live for today at the minute, especially when the prime minister is begging you to do that and saying it will all be ok if you do.
Of course he might be lying to you we will see next year.
Re post 159.When you read posts like that it is no wonder that Labour has got the country into the mess it has!
These numbers are bad for the Tories, they have shed an awful lot of vote share over the last few months. If Spreadfair was still going I would be selling Tories (SPIN and IG go down too often and the spreads are too large for me to go on them). However I agree with Mike L at 122 that there are reasons that this will turn around before June 2010 (my bet for the next election) and to his first point:
“There is a limit to the amount of initiatives Brown can announce. The next couple of months will be quieter on this front.”
There is enough time that Brown’s hyper active ‘do anything’ tactics could backfire since in that time they will be judged as to whether they have worked or not. Come the Budget if the forecast isn’t better than it was in the pre-budget report (and it won’t be because that was hopelessly optimistic) it is going to start looking like all of this extra debt he has been giving us hasn’t actually helped anybody. Personally I expect the bubble to burst earlier than that, probably around Jan-Feb when the christmas credit card and winter heating bills come in.
There’s always two parts to a ‘crisis’. People knowing it and, later, people accepting it, from whence we move forward. At the moment, people are between the two playing the classic, nothing has changed, game. It’s Christmas, reality takes a back seat.
On the plus side, the rabid journalists in Westminster will all be asking the same question over and over again: “when is the election going to be?”
Poor old Brown will have to put out some nifty swerves if he isn’t going to tie himself in knots and cause more trouble for himself.
My god,people in this country are so easily hood winked into saying they would vote labour.The spin ,the lies,the deceit and every thing this pathetic,shamefull labour govenment have touched has gone wrong,but abit of good press and spin and the people fall for it,I give up.
160 Nice try, MTF, but great it certainly is. Sure, they’re five points down but in context, that’s pretty bloody amazing.
No, I don’t understand it either, but I don’t keep my betting accounts in credit each year by pretending things are not how they are.
The big problem for the Tories’ is that we all know what Labour’s message is: the Tories are the Do Nothing party. Is it true? No. Do people believe it? Of course. They don’t follow politics that closely. They DEFINITELY don’t follow economics. Even most educated people pass on that.
The problem is: what is the Tories’ message? It used to be ‘didn’t fix the roof’, but that’s old. What is it now? If there is one, it’snot getting across.
I would suggest that it doesn’t matter too much over Christmas, while the feel-good factor is working and people are getting bargains on the sales, but after Christmas, although the mood will change and Labour will presumably suffer a bit, the Conservatives need to attack again.
And there is a posh problem. It’s not Osborne or Cameron, it’s those around them.
Having said that, Labour are 5 points behind. There has been no fundamental shift for a while. A small-medium Tory lead. Whilst this is the case, Labour are still the ones in trouble. But if they can mak the Tories think they have the problems …
Julian Glover in the Guardian:
The data suggests that party fortunes are closely correlated not only with the economy but, more specifically, with the housing market.
Irrespective of the short-term boost for Labour in today’s poll, the dangers for 2009 are clear if house prices continue to slide and these voters harden behind the Conservatives
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/dec/16/poll-analysis
166 Sorry Johnno, you seem to have wandered into the wrong Site. This one’s about betting.
I think the one you were looking for is at:
http://www.samaritans.org
Let’s have a sense of proportion. Did you really think Cameron would just stroll into Downing Street? Victory needs to be fought for. I can’t ever remember any of our other victories in the past as being plain sailing, so why should now be any different.
Labour are still behind and the best one can say about Brown’s position is that the electorate are unsure about their verdict on his recent performance….for the moment.
The Tories can only talk about the economic crisis; they can’t do anything. My advice would be:
1. The economy is key. So back your judgement. The response to the PBR was a good start. The attacks on the high projected borrowing levels found a resonance among the electorate. Develop this and also highlight the waste and inefficiency behind the current high level of spending and the pillaging of the pension funds to pay for it.
2. Find ways of linking our economic problems with the social agenda. People worry about the growth of the underclass, the ten percent of those of working age who live on benefits and the replacement of the families with gangs in some areas. Labour does not have any answers. With unemployment rising towards three million this is not going to get any better on their own.
3. Don’t blow up issues which the electorate don’t really care about. Greengate is a classic example. Believe me, few people cared: it was the EU with knobs on.
4. The posh label is unjust but it has some traction. Beg Davis to rejoin the shadow cabinet. Make more use of someone like Maria Miller who has outside business experience and does not seem like a ‘cold fish’, unlike someone like the ex-banker Philip Hammond. Otherwise don’t make any drastic changes.
Also, Penny, don’t refer to the electorate as the dumb voters. Treat them like that and we deserve to lose.
People like me -the ones who did not spend,spend,spend but saved and lived within our means are the ones who reliably vote.
We are the savers who are now being sold down the river by Brown and his motley crew whist our pensions erode.
When the votes are counted - we will have our revenge.
169. I’d be interested to see the analysis underlying that claim. In the last few months, I would suggest energy prices and interest rates are the bigger factors.
But if ICM are right, Labour are finished as there is no prospect of house prices recovering before 2010 at the earliest.
Further to my 146, I have (of course, having trumpeted it with bold text) found an error in my calculations.
For an election held on 3 June 2010, the projection is:
Con 37.7%
Lab 32.5%
LD 20.5%
Oth 9.3%
Seats in the Commons:
Con 294
Lab 277
LD 43
SNP 11
PC 4
Respect 1
KHHC 1
Independent 1
Which would give Brown a chance to stay in office if he could make a coalition with the Lib Dems.
For an election held today, the projection is:
Con 38.3
Lab 30.8
LD 21.6
Seats in the Commons:
Con 308
Lab 256
LD 50
SNP 11
PC 4
Respect 1
KHHC 1
Independent 1
Which would make it very difficult for Brown to cobble together a coalition, though notably Con + SNP would be insufficient for a majority.
171, generally I agree.
I think it was fair enough to make a big deal of the Green affair because it was a big deal. The error was allowing it to eclipse any economic attack on the government.
I’m also less sure that the posh label matters as much as many think. Osborne’s fine, Cameron’s fine as well. Grieve is a good bloke, but he has the problem of looking like he’s from the last Major government. He’s very precise and clever, but lacks the common touch. It’s not about class, in my view.
Mr Editor, well it looks like the whisper about a big swing in the direction of the ICM poll was right after all.Thats if you call a 10% reduction in the Conservative lead big.
Will keep you informed if I hear of any more,that is if I am not banned of course.
Without appearing “complacent”, I somehow doubt that in one poll, the Tories have lost nearly one in six of their voters. Perhaps the 45% was too high, or the 38% too low - probably a little of both.
I still think today’s laughing happy Labourites are like those unfortunates who go collect all the fish when the sea suddenly rushes out. There is still a tsunami coming, guys. The feel-crap factor is yet to bite. People will have one last Christmas fling - then close their wallets.
167
You made me smile PTP, but is it???. Huge cuts in interest rates, mortgages down, does the average voter care that the economy is absolutely f*cked? They are spending for Xmas and to hell with the new year. The election will depend on circumstances in the New year, at the moment Labour are offering pethadine for for gangrene(excuse the nasty metaphor) It feels ok at the moment, but…………..
Will Gordo call the election before the Doctor says amputation is inevitable?
158 being five points ahead is the worst poll performance ever? What’s 33%?
168. thomas: The big problem for the Tories’ is that we all know what Labour’s message is: the Tories are the Do Nothing party. Is it true? No. Do people believe it? Of course.
Really?
YouGov showed the public disagreed marginally (39-38). ComRes showed a 45-45 tie.
People are getting too hung up on figures (which I suppose is understandable given the nature of the site).
Put quite simply, they matter less than I can ever remember.
Why do figures not matter? Because we are in a strange time of not knowing whether we can praise or blame.
Look around you, see what is happening around the country and base your predictions on that, on what is about to transpe not on what people think at this moment in time.
I do not understand how 33% of the UK population could decide to vote Labour. Surely there aren’t that many people stupid enough to believe Labour and BBC lies.
Incidentally, how long do people think Labour can keep interest rates this low or perhaps lower?
Very good,Peter the punter,me will use that site if labour win next general election or emigrate.
171. Fernando.. you are right and I apologise to the average voter, who is not dumb, even though he/she may be politically unaware and economically naive.
The Opposition have to make use of these figures to make any headway
Exposing the myth behind deflation predictions
Telegraph: Price of fresh food rises again, figures show
The annual rate of food inflation rose from 10.1 per cent to 10.8 per cent. Howard Archer, chief UK and European Economist at Global Insight, said: “Sterling is having an impact as most of our fruits are imported. This is not something that is going to disappear.” As an aside, Mervyn King’s chief role has always been to shape expectations in his announcements, and today’s missive that deflation could happen ’soon’ is no exception. Meanwhile inflation is still 110% above target.
Go on David Cameron and Nick Clegg try hurling size 10 shoes at the Prime Minister
181, Until the election.
“transpire” not “transpe”…
181
The key thing , and Ken (the guru) will correct me if I am wrong is not the Govt cutting interest rates that is key, its at what rate Labour will have to borrow to fund the deficit. Its then that the wheels may well fall off. Its all about timing…..
176 We don’t disagree, MTF, and your analysis is as plausible as any I have heard, but I’m a punter and I have to believe the form. For political punters, the polls are the best (though not the only) form guide. Ignore them and you will soon stop being a punter, on account of a lack of pennies with which to punt.
Like URW (see 25), I expect to be selling Labour again in due course, but I’m not entire sure when that course will hove into view. Meanwhile, there’s only one bet in town.
182 LOL! You won’t be alone, Johnno.
188. Indeed but the interest rate will be what the public will see most notably and will feel directly in their pocket.
190. Can the last person leaving remember to turn the lights out!
;o)
Meanwhile, my tip for “most intriguing seat” at the next election is Poplar and Limehouse. I didn’t realise until today, but the way the boundaries have been redrawn point to a potentially very tight three-way or even four-way marginal. The notional results are Lab 12,463 (35.33%); C 8,640 (24.49%); Others 8,329 (23.61%); LD 4,919 (13.94%); Green 925 (2.62%) [with others being primarily Respect - whose candidate next time will be the odious Galloway].
I’d like to see Shadsy price that one up!
Illinois House Democrats have decided to “postpone” taking away Blagojevich’s power to appoint a senator to replace Obama, likely driven by their fear that that a Republican could win the seat in a special election:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=ajp3kuscJCn0
Since Blago apparently isn’t planning on giving up his gubernatorial power anytime soon and insisted that any revocation of the power not target him personally, will he proceed in naming a successor senator? More Christmas fun for the Dems…
A very good post by SeanT at 38.
It worries me when Conservatives on here begin blaming the ’stupid public’ either in those words, or sentiments. The fact is that Brown has a storming few months compared to Cameron. From the moment he slated Cameron for being a novice, and argued that he was the man to steer the ship through the storm he has begun to close the Tory lead.
I am not convinced though that the Labour regain will continue, even perversely if the economy comes right during 2009. But by a number of rather brilliant PR initiatives Labour have shown total fight, and for this reason more than anything else I fear for the Tories at the next election. They are showing themselves up very, very, badly as amateurs.
Incidentally, I was out shopping today and the VAT cut was still in my face at almost every turn - it’s even on checkout and card payment machines. It’s even there when you try to top up your phone. It’s such publicity for Labour!
If I was the PM at questions tomorrow, I’d work into the exchange with Cameron that “I have 100% confidence in my Chancellor, can the Leader of the opposition say the same about his choice”
Now I’m annoyed. I backed NOM a few weeks ago at a pretty healthy 5/2 but panicked when those polls came out giving the Conservatives double-digit leads and laid off at a tiny profit. And now the odds are charging in again and I’ve missed the movement.
Question is: is it good enough for Brown to go to the country on? Answer: not really but not far off.
201. Tedious Idiotic Man: If I was the PM at questions tomorrow, I’d work into the exchange with Cameron that “I have 100% confidence in my Chancellor, can the Leader of the opposition say the same about his choice”
And the response would be “yes”.
55
Average ICM guardian for 2008 is Con 41 lab 33 Lib 20 Oth 9.
Still just about hung parliament territory but with the Tories in the driving seat.
rogerh
Evening all
Re: 192 - Martin C’s recent efforts in Mile End suggest the Conservatives have a real chance.
Interesting ICM poll.
192. I’m not sure Galloway will win. He might, but even his supporters in Bethnal Green seem to concede his Parliamentary attendance has been shocking. There’s more ammunition to throw at him than there was when he stood against Oona King. Plus, the Iraq issue has died down a little.
I could see him coming second though.
re 179 Thanks. There have been so many false rumours in recent weeks that I am sceptical about new posters who have no record of contributing here before. You’ve past the test.
183 Sure, but 38% is enough to wim Labour an election if they all vote that way. Furthermore, the even if they wouldn’t agree with the slogan itself, it is a fact that the Tories’ plans/messages are not obvious and not getting coverage - ie there is a lack of a message about what to do getting across.
199. RWH: It’s such publicity for Labour!
Right, and there is nothing the Tories can do about it.
And yet Labour are still 5 points down.
207. Not ‘wim’ obviously. But I like it as a verb.
As Christmas approached allow me to introduce the first in an occasional series of ukpaul’s ‘hot bargains’.
These may prove to be as ‘occasional’ as stjohn’s racing tips but that would be pushing the meaning of ‘occasional’ into the realm of ‘hardly ever’.
Anyway, in these difficult times, when money is at a premium, what better than to kick fire up the DVD, put on the slippers and watch the complete Steptoe & Son DVDs, currently available for a bargain £25.97 (less than half price) from Amazon. That’s thirteen discs of bumper entertainment.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/B000VA3J5C/thedvdforums-21
Ukpaul accepts no responsibility for yada yada yada tiddly pom and a merry Christmas to you too sir.
I think everybody now knows that there’s something wrong with the Conservative message or, at least, that is not getting through. ICM was supposed to “come to the rescue”, but that’s not what happened. Even if most of us still believe Cons will be the largest party in the next election, that is no justification for the complacency that many are showing saying that Cameron will surely lead the Party to victory.
Some are counting that people will realize that this crisis was made by Brown, but what if that does not happen? The economy will be worse but what if people decide that it’s better to stick with Brown? Surely if people do not believe that Brown made the crisis they will have no problem in supporting Lab at the next election.
It’s no time for panic, but it’s time for a rethinking.
207. thomas: 38% is enough to wim Labour an election if they all vote that way.
Of course, some of the 38% will be from the Senior wing of the Lib Dems.
210 - Just realised that went through one of the pricecheck sites I use, if you want to ignore that go via -
http://tinyurl.com/6ns8ak
Wait to see if the spreads move, If Labour rise and Tories go down, sell Labour and hang on tight.
Labour will not go to the country unless they have a workable poll lead unless they are stupid.
184. You are right. Except, of course, the people won’t necessarily direct their blame correctly, parties have to get their message across.
205. Matt1: I’m not sure Galloway will win. He might, but even his supporters in Bethnal Green seem to concede his Parliamentary attendance has been shocking. There’s more ammunition to throw at him than there was when he stood against Oona King.
Well, I didn’t think he’d win last time. Then I saw how the campaign was conducted.
208 Its a damn sight better than the 20+ deficits in late spring/summer-at that point I believed in my heart of hearts DC would win-now ,if I had to put a tenner on it at gunpoint,hand on heart I would say ‘Labour largest in hung parliament’ is my candid prediction for the next GE
201. I hope you are right.
The key problem for the Tories at the moment is that, whilst people loathe Brown, they just find it difficult to believe the economy will be anything different under Cameron.. indeed, it could be worse. Some will prefer the gamble with Brown than the untested Cameron.
Cameron needs to come out with a coherent economic argument. A lot of people say there’s a concern that Labour will nick it. I say, if they do… good! It undermines their “The Tories have no good arguments” theme. He needs to be radical and straight with people now. People need to know exactly what he will do. The time to be coy about policy and suchlike is long past… there should be no fear that Labour will copy because if Labour copy policy it shows them up as hypocrites.
199. RWH. I agree with your first sentence but after that I think your gross overstatement of Brown’s performance shows where you are coming from. To read it one would think this was the height of the Brown Bounce. Reality check Labour are still behind by 6 points.
Talking of signs being out. I remember back in the 80’s the big sign that used to hang opposite to the old Woolwich Town Hall (part of the socialist republic of Greenwich) displaying the fact that 3,000,000 were out of work. it hung there for years and the figure never changed from it’s highest point. By the end it looked very tired and worn out particularly when the Unemployment rate was way below that figure.
The VAT signs will stay out until Christmas and perhaps into the sales afterwards. Shops need all the help they can get. After that the longer they remain the more tired and worn out they will become.
There is a simple unsaid fact: Cameron is more ‘hateable’ than Brown.
221 - err, hate is not a fact and, in any case, it depends on the person. It is much easier to hate someone who has power over you than one who doesn’t so Brown, by his position, has a tougher job on in comparison.
208. Yes but interest rates are likely to fall further and that will give Brown another boost. Right now it does seem that the more drastic the measures taken the better the government does.
Dont be sily Gabble, Brown is about the most loathed PM in living memory,
221 ‘Hateable’-I disagree.More volatile,lacking in stoicism,shallowness,opportunistic are critcisms I (and many others) have coined.
216. I thought he stood a good chance last time. Despite being controversial, he wasn’t hugely well known with the public (they probably knew his name but weren’t entirely sure why he caused such a fuss) and he stood in a seat with a high muslim population at the height of the Iraq troubles (and against a woman who, despite being potentially ready for a big government promotion through her talent, was nothing more than a Blair lackey really). Conditions couldn’t have been better for him.
219. They already have a ‘BIG’ policy: the guarantee of bank lending to businesses. But it’s not getting enough publicity. Obviously it’s a lot easier for the government, but at the same time, the response to Labour claims is not getting through.
211. We can play ‘what if’ games all night. Either you believe in one party or the other. The thing is there is no point running round going what if what if what if, it’s unproductive and boring!
208. But the gap is closing.
I don’t love Brown, but I do find Cameron and Osborne vaccuous and pretty nearly useless. Their economic wailings have come across very poorly indeed.
221. Gabble.
You’re confusing “hatred” with “envy”.
221. I don’t think many people hate Cameron. They may scoff at him, or see him as shallow, but they don’t loathe him. He hasn’t done anything to make them hate him. Wishful thinking, Gabble.
199,RWH,I agree with you that labour have stepped up they performance,but what with,bringing mandleson ,draper,whelan and campbell back.This is back to Blair govenment of spin ,lies and deceit.
On another note, there are rumours Souness is going to Blackburn. Whether this would be permanent I have no idea but certainly there is a view floating around that Graeme will be there by end of week.
Has anyone heard anything about the man who is currently 7/2 with PP?
221. Gabble do you know why it is unsaid? Because it aint true.
Now be a good boy and get back in your cage!
The cult of Cameron is finally beginning to crumble.
214 The spreads have already moved quite a way, Yokel.
It’s hard to say if they will move some more. The polls are counter-intuitive but your experience, as mine, must tell you to go by what your instruments are telling you.
Cameron’s attempt to ‘own’ the grief surrounding the Baby P tragedy was abhorrent to many people.
221 I hate Brown because he has destroyed the pensions system, forced in all liklihoo a permanent increase in tax that I and my children will pay for and has assaulted long cherished freedoms that our forefathers shed blood for.
225 And Brown is cowardly, dishonest, incompetent, petty, vindictive, hypocritical, shallow, and immoral
232. I agree. In many ways it’s vomit making, but you still have to admire their fight. Their comeback coincides with the return of Mandleson doesn’t it … nasty piece of work, but damned proficient.
227. But thomas.. the average voter is not particularly interested in that. The average voter doesn’t see how banks lending to businesses will affect him.
This is the problem, if this is the Toies BIG policy, it won’t resonate with the average voter.
237/237 utter rubbish Gabble
241
235/237
228-Ok. It has to be “what if” as the only thing certain is that night will followed by day, and that’s not even certain sometimes!
237 What was abhorrent was that such an incompetent government had allowed it to happen in the same Labour run council 8 years on.
This is my message to you-ou-ou,
Don’t worry about a thing,
‘Cause every little thing gonna be all right.
20 points, though good for a chuckle, was never believable. The government are allowed to fight back. 5 points ahead BEFORE an economic cataclysm is a winning position.
241. MTF
Earlier in this thread you were contemplating the opportunity for the tories to sue the Police.
You’ll excuse me if I take your criticism with the mine of salt it deserves.
237,Gabble ,you should be ashamed of your self for that comment,if it was’nt for mr cameron,the investigation would have been in house,plus,if you remember the baby p story was heading down the press headlines untill cameron brought it up in the commons,sorry gabble,very poor of you.
238 Some I have a smidgeon of agreement (mind you I can be a right vindictive swine when I get mad :wink:) As some on here point repeatedly-manual workers,with stable-enough jobs and tumbling tracker mortgages (and tumbling fuel prices) -many of us would accept that if it was the Devil Incarnate himself delivering-the late 1980s/early 1990s are still etched into the psyche of millions of Britons-not being nasty,just stating bread and butter facts
237 - thats clearly true.
His BAFTA performance of turning it into “an apology for me me me” throwing his “notes”, coupled with falsely claiming it was about a 17 year old mother was pretty stupid
246
No Gabble, I asked IF Green had grounds to sue, a slight difference, in any event , both your posts were a pile of faeces.
I’d like to see a poll that asked “Should Gordon Brown be rewarded for his handling of the economy with a further five year term?”
Think even 33% would answer yes?
So, credit time: Rod Crosby has taken an awful lot of stick in the last year for steadfastly predicting a hung-parliament. Do I hear #”They all laughed at Christopher Columbus…”#
New poster, “Winston Churchill” passes the test, and will doubtless leak us some more rumours when he receives them?
For the record, nobody (including SeanT) is advising ‘panic’. Panic is rarely to be advised. There is something between panic and inertia, and if the Conservatives can find it, it will not only help them win an election, but do significantly better as a government.
Just a thought: It is possible that no pairing of the three largest parties in a Hung Parliament would deliver a majority.
If Labour and the Conservatives won 286 and 287 respectively, and the Lib Dems won 38 seats, then with NI = 18, the rest (Nats, Independents, Speaker, Green) managing 21.
The classic coalition of two major parties would only deliver 324/325 seats - no overall majority. The Doctor from Kiddiminster would become one of the most powerful men in the country.
That would be awesome…choice of Speaker would matter too!!!
It is a measure of just how far from reality this site is. How many posts have there been praising Brown’s personal qualities?
In this poll he is ahead on:
The leader most likely to take the right decisions when the going gets tough.
The most honest leader.
The leader most likely to understand people’s concerns.
248 Patrick. You make a good point (even though you are a Hammer). Many people fear a Conservative Government in a recession, because they acted callously in the 80’s and 90’s. Remember the slogans “There is no alternative” and “A price worth paying”.
Now, I don’t believe that the modern Conservative leadership would repeat those mistakes, but you can’t blame many voters for suspecting that they would.
Good poll tonight from my perspective. Having waited for my cash to be returned from Spreadfair, has now returned to be reinvested in buying Tory seats. However, have messed up opening my Sporting Index account (opened a stop loss by mistake) so can’t get on til tommorrow morning. Hopefully I can get my cash on the Tories before the unemployment figures come out tommorrow.
Watch the Labour polling figure crash and burn over the next two or three months. I would estimate 5% off Labour for every million the unemployment figure rises next year (and that doesn’t even take into account the number of Poles etc going home).
“No more boom and bust”
Morus.
Can you exercise your commercial power and get a market on those East End seats.
Come on, offer Ladbrokes a fiscal stimulus!
RWH said at 199 “Incidentally, I was out shopping today and the VAT cut was still in my face at almost every turn - it’s even on checkout and card payment machines. It’s even there when you try to top up your phone. It’s such publicity for Labour!”
I was shopping in Leeds last Wednesday early afternoon - all the shops I went in were quiet and had a downbeat atmosphere. There were hardly any people in the coffee bars at lunch time. The VAT cuts weren’t apparent at all - I didn’t see any shop where the labels had been repriced, and the small discount was given at the till after the customer had already decided to buy on the basis of the undiscounted price! The eventual discount is so small on most purchases as to be hardly noticeable - it’s really hard to believe that this is influencing anyone to buy anything they wouldn’t otherwise have bought, and if so, the policy is a complete waste of money and will not achieve its stated objectives.
Can there really be so many people who see themselves as unaffected by the downturn and who are not worried about their prospects? I work in two entirely different small businesses. Neither of my employers is sure whether his business will even survive during the coming year. Younger members of my family are all concerned about whether their jobs are safe, with good reason in each case.
Strangely, although my children are not especially interested in politics they often mention how the subject of the current government has cropped up in conversation with others and nobody, nobody at all, has had a good word to say about it.
I think the current Labour spin which is so removed from reality can’t succeed for ever - finally events will show it up for what it is, just a con-trick for the sole purpose of keeping Brown in office.
By the way, there is no chance whatsoever of this recession being over any time soon. It’s hardly got started yet. It gives me no pleasure to say this as time is not on my side when it comes to recovering from the financial losses I have already suffered, but I’m afraid it is true.
Oh, btw, Penny is right, and the bloke on the street doesn’t give a monkey’s about underwriting bank lending to business. It’s not a consumer-friendly policy, although it is a very good policy.
WIthout wanting to give away the punchline, the answer the Conservatives are looking for is … INCOME TAX CUTS.
Make ‘em simple, and make ‘em flashy. Let the papers talk about the opposition for a change. There’s a danger that they will be painted as ’same old Tories’, but have the British public been more receptive to income tax cuts at any other point in the last 15 years? No one is worried about Health and Education. No one is worried that the nice Mr Cameron, who uses the NHS all the time, is going to kill it. They are safe on the public services agenda - now is the time to say that every further penny borrowed will go towards making every working person richer.
254 - I could put together a pretty good ad of Cameron & Osborne in the last recession.
Cameron behind Lamont, and Osborne on a shoot in his plus fours.
Its probably already made.
253. Gabble: In this poll [Brown] is ahead on:
The leader most likely to take the right decisions when the going gets tough.
The most honest leader.
The leader most likely to understand people’s concerns.
My god, the people really are idiots!
243. OK So I have what if for you. So what if Cameron and Co., at the right time, responds in the same manner as last October?
Your premise is predicated on the false concept that Cameron doesn’t know what he is doing. Whereas the 10 point swing he achieved last October suggests he has a good understanding of such considerations.
As I said running around saying what if what if what if is unproductive and boring.
260. Just out of interest were the people idiots when Cameron was posting 20 point leads?
Or do people suddenly become idiots when they decide to vote labour?
256 - I’m sorry Tim, it completely slipped my mind. Send me an email to morus1516 [AT] hotmail [DOT] com, saying which seats you’re interested in, and I’ll send it on to the great Shadsy with a request for him to add them.
Congrats for your £20 bet at 20-1 on Gove as Shadow Chancellor by April, btw. It’s a brave bet - I can see him moving to that portfolio, but I’d be surprised if its before the election.
Maybe you think Labour will win a Feb/March election, and Gove will get promoted when they blame it on Osborne?
Anyway, the point of the site is “money where mouth is”, so fair play - I no longer bet against PtP, because I rather like my money, but best of luck.
re 252. Your theory is fine Morus except that Lib Dems are going to get many more than 38 seats.
re 253. The only problem is that non-voting intention questions don’t matter. If Gordon is all these things why is is that less than a third of voters would support his party in a general election?
Stick with voting intention - this poll is great for Labour and bad for the Tories. Don’t over-egg it on findings that include the views of many who won’t be ars*d to vote.
Remember the Tories were ahead on the economy on May 1 1997 - and a fat lot of good it did them.
What do you know about hate, Gabble? You defend the name of convicted child-kidnappers while insisting the police should have the right to intern the innocent indefinitely!
236. So I see but I think there is more movement before the precise moment I step in though it is certainly I think the spreads are offering value. At this time, I think Labour will be lucky to hit 230 seats next election.
I also think theres a slight anonmaly in those numbers when you start adding up the NI seats and the Nats. One of the big 3 is being over estimated a touch.
The LD’s being squeezed has long been predicted and just lends more weight to the ridiculous b*llocks touted to oust Ming as leader, in particular his age.
262 - They were idiots all along, but good British Conservatives are well-brought-up types and thought it would be rude to mention it when the plebs were being so supportive!
While we are all discussing how amazingly RIGHT I am about EVERYTHING IN THE WORLD the pound has been treating the dollar like a m1lf. It’s up 3 cents in 2 hours.
Sadly, I think this is more to do with US weakness than a sudden UK resurgence. Sterling is near to its alltime low against the euro.
248 I don’t think I am being nasty, just honest. I think New Labour is a cancer in your party and you will not be decent people again until you cut it out. I find it strange that you can justify anything just to hang on to power, because that is all there is in labour at the moment whatever the cost in terms of people and money.
253 In this one poll. The closer you look at Brown the worse he seems, he literally is an immoral scumbag. You are lucky you have persuaded people to not look to closely at politics as if they were engaged you would stand no chance whatsoever.
264 - It’s about as plausible as an Electoral College tie, though, right?!
Out of interest Mike, what fixed price odds would you offer on the Lib Dems getting 39 seats or fewer?
259 same old Tim, same old nasty tory toffs sh*te, Have you consided what Woodward, Sainsbury, Mandleson, etc get up to Tim, I doint think they are doing the weekend shop…
268. That coincides with the US dropping interest rates to almost zero
260. ‘The people are idiots’ is the sort of post that deeply worries me from a Tory perspective. When you get to that point it’s time to be extremely worried about prospects. I remember something very similar in the last days of Michael Howard.
A lot of people think Labour are trying to do something practical about what is clearly a global problem. They are working hard, coming up with concrete proposals that affect people. Even if some of the changes are small, they still count (’every little’ … etc.). By contrast Cameron and Osborne come across as spoilt whingeing whiners. Cameron yesterday sounded hideously strident - at his worst with that dreadful high pitched whinge voice he has.
252 Morus
If Labour and the Conservatives won 286 and 287 respectively, and the Lib Dems won 38 seats, then with NI = 18, the rest (Nats, Independents, Speaker, Green) managing 21.
The classic coalition of two major parties would only deliver 324/325 seats - no overall majority. The Doctor from Kiddiminster would become one of the most powerful men in the country.
You might want to rethink that a tad considering the UUP are now allied to the Conservatives. So NI (unaccounted for) is 17 now and who knows after an election.
269 The other point is that the only way Labour managed to win an election in the last 30 years was via Tony Blair and New Labour. A victory for old Labour led by old Labour Brown? As likely as for the last attempt by Kinnock to lead old Labour to power. Gordon will hang on for as long as possible becuase he knows he will be slaughtered at the next election.
264. OGH: Stick with voting intention - this poll is great for Labour and bad for the Tories. Don’t over-egg it on findings that include the views of many who won’t be ars*d to vote.
You’re over-egging it too, though, Mike.
5 points behind isn’t “great”. “Much better than it was”, but barely even “good”, let alone great.
268. The US has dropped its interest rate to 0.25%
274 - Good point. 286 each for Conservatives and 39 LD?
272 “In its statement, the Federal Reserve warned that “the outlook for economic activity has weakened further”.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7786282.stm
Obama: “We are running out of the traditional ammunition that is used in a recession, which is to lower interest rates”
Of course, being ‘hateable’ does not make you unelectable - Maggie Thatcher, for instance.
However, you need some sort of solid ‘base’ to justify your hate-worthy actions and this is where Cameron falls down.
He is just a craven thug who has dispensed with any attempt at a coherent policy platform and instead spends his time exploiting the misfortune of others to further his bid for power.
259 Tim were you born a class bigot or did you take exams to perfect your skills?
Just logged on to see the numbers. Ozzie out.
Just logged on to see the numbers. Grieve out.
Sorry if some of my earlier posts were a trifle exuberant - a complete round of consecutive decent polls from the five main pollsters have been a bit thin on the ground in the last year or so. Also apologies to the ever-courteous test for misquoting.
The main point in the thread that I’d query is the theory that Brown will soon run out of things to do. I won’t go into detail, but that isn’t going to happen. I think the next few months are going to feature mostly grim economic data and the Government manfully battling with them, while the Conservatives criticise anything we do or claim they thought of it first. How the public will react to that I don’t know, but it probably depends on whether people feel that the manful efforts are helping blunt the worst of it. An important factor is that home fuel prices are about to start falling sharply - the contracts that have been keeping them high will start to expire next month.
An interesting question is how people now feel about Cameron. His ratings are pretty much tied with Brown now, except on the economy, but we’ve not seen likeability ratings recently and I wonder how they’re doing. My impression, which may be biased, is that people have gone off him a bit, and now see him less as the fresh young face and more as just another politician. People haven’t suddenly fallen in love with Labour or GB - the 33% is still marginally under our 2005 level - but they don’t see in Cameron or the Tories an urgent positive reason to change. What’s left of the Tory lead is accumulated grudges against the Government, and those may be of doubtful value when it actually comes to an election.
Just logged on to see the numbers. Clarke in?
268 - I learnt that Ken about the Dollars impending decline last night.
263 - My logic on the Gove bet is simple.
Can Dave neutralise the posh problem while keeping Osborne in place?
50/50
Gove to replace him 5/1 (Hague 2/1 Davis 3/1)
20/1 good value.
261-It’s not that Cameron knows or does not know what he is doing. There is a problem. A lead of 20% has just been transformed in a 5%. Denying a problem does not make him disappear. Of course, Cameron can improve Cons shares but I shouldn’t go there as this is a what if!
We would be naive not to not analyze all scenarios.
280. Poor Old gabble he does get confused.
He is just a craven thug who has dispensed with any attempt at a coherent policy platform and instead spends his time exploiting the misfortune of others to further his bid for power.
He’s been reminiscing about Prescott, Reid and Campbell again.
280 But Thatcher was at least competent and brave. Brown is incompetent and cowardly. As for your comments on Cameron, just seem to be meaningless waffle.
273. RWH: ‘The people are idiots’ is the sort of post that deeply worries me from a Tory perspective.
Since I don’t have a Tory perspective…
The economy is screwed. Brown has screwed it. If people don’t see this, what are they if not idiots?
Brown is a dishonest toerag who is motivated solely by screwing the Tories, with not a thought of what is good for the country. If people don’t see this, what are they if not idiots?
284. Fine analysis. Sean T would agree with you.
280 Thatcher was elected. Brown wasn’t.
282. I can’t see how Osborne can go though. He is so closely allied to Cameron that it will surely fatally weaken DC? For good or ill (and I tend to the latter) they have to continue through to the election now.
258. Possibly, Morus. But I do think Cameron is worried (understandably) that coming in with this radical tax-cutting agenda is going to make him look a bit like Maggie in 1979 - ie taking on the country in an economic crisis, being very radical, causing said crisis to get even worse for an awful lot of people, but in the long term producing a sounder economic base (though perhaps one that should have been tweaked in the decades afterwards given the current problems).
I have said before and I’ll say again - yes, we’re in recession, yes we’re being told how awful everything is, but people are not going to wake up and smell the coffee until there is something painful and hard hitting to them. Emotive. Like the three day week or the dead going unburied. At the moment we don’t have that. Will we? If it’s as bad as they say it’s going to be, yes. And that image will be the image many have not seen for years… long dole queues. Mark my words, if any image is to bring down Labour it will be that one. But until then I think the election is all to play for… and I do not know exactly how the recession will play out.
290. Maybe. But the trouble is that thinking that way doesn’t win elections. It loses them.
272, 277. Indeed, you are of course correct.
It is a bit scary - Obama is right: what happens when we run out of interest rate ammunition? What do we all do then? Throw dung?
Labour won’t mind. If we are reduced to eating lichen and living in shallow holes Brown will probably poll 70%.
“He is just a craven thug who has dispensed with any attempt at a coherent policy platform and instead spends his time exploiting the misfortune of others to further his bid for power.”
Are you talking about yourself, Gabble?
288. jsfl: He’s been reminiscing about Prescott, Reid and Campbell again.
I thought he was talking about Brown.
Right, I’m off to work, while I still have a job.
re 270 Morus - I’m happy to do an evens bet though my betting is almost all short-term based on how I think gamblers will view things in the next month.
The best places for you, though, are the spread markets where the current LD spreads are 42-45 seats. Do a sell at 42 if you are convinced.
I have a wager with PfP that the LDs will get more than 17% of the GB national vote.
293 “Labour troll wants Osbourne gone shocker”.
The truth is Labour trolls talk so much about Osbourne because they know he is good.
286. tim.
Can you explain how replacing Osborne (public school and Oxford) with Gove (public school and Oxford) has any bearing on your toff vendetta?
300. Troll? I have been saying it for months. But thankfully, whenever I come on here I’m reminded that he is a “master strategist” who can “choose his own job in the Tory party”.
295. But they are idiots. How the hell are the Tories meant to win the idiot vote? Top Brown, and offer the idiots free money?*
* Free as in mass unemployment and a decade of Japan-style stagnation.
re 287. Talking about leads is highly mis-leading and the margin of error is double that of the MOE on individual party shares.
I now no longer talk about leads for that reason.
284 Ah so you are “manfully” going to steal the loan guarantee then Nick and “Manfully” borrow lots of money (lets not worry about where from) for many gimmicks and reannouncements that will have to be paid by the taxpayer whilst Brown “manfully” takes the credit.
280 Gabble “He is just a craven thug who has dispensed with any attempt at a coherent policy platform and instead spends his time exploiting the misfortune of others to further his bid for power.”
Congratulations Gabble! Best description of Gordon Brown that I have ever read.
I’ve just used RodCrosby’s Swingometer which, allowing for the fact that it is (I think) based on this Parliament’s seats (645), I can generate Con=286 (exc UUP), Lab=285, LD=39, with vote share of C=39.0, Lab=32.6, LD=15.5.
The Lib Dems would have to do poorly at the hands of a great SNP performace, but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility!
296. That is the ultimate goal of Mugabinomics, of course.
274. There is no guarantee Hermon will take the Tory whip. That one has to be sorted yet. I would also guess that there is probably one, maybe two at the outside seats that the UUP could even get near gaining based on current form, South Antrim & South Belfast. The DUP looked reasonably ensconced everywhere else. The unionist vote in South Belfast is soft but I suspect the Tory/UUP pact sees that as the big target where the Tory brand may enhance the offer. South Antrim really isnt Willie McCrea territory. Its an odd match. Ignore the Assembly numbers, the UUP sat at home or went Alliance, I suspect the actual swing required is less than the 2007 figures suggest.
The theortical shocker is Upper Bann where the willingness of the Unionist vote to transfer across parties is extraordinary and therefore may offer an opening if the UUP can persuade the unionists that they are backable. Party loyalties there are shiftable. Very long shot though.
301. He’s Scottish. Maybe they can’t really be posh?
304-Sorry then. Let me try again:
It’s pretty clear, that Cons shares aren’t as good as they were!
Ok?
300. No really, Osborne isn’t good. Looks like a public schoolboy amongst men. Unfortunately he’s not alone on the shadow frontbench in that regard.
What the Tories need is a bruiser in there to take them by the balls and kick some damned sense into them. Clarke might have done it, but they really need the equivalent of Campbell to knock their heads together until they start growing up. They are looking at the moment like utter amateurs.
300. Please talk me through why Osborne is so “good” the Tory lead had shrivelled like a pizzle in fifty degree frost, from 20 points to an average of 3, in about 12 weeks?
How is this “Osborne is so good” meme evidenced? Just wondrin.
OK, to be a bit more helpful to the Tories (guys, I still want you to win!!!) - here is one way Osborne could show he is “good”.
The Tories need to deal with the “Do Nothing” label.
Because this label is hurting. It’s a very clever and fiendish chunk of Mandelsonian spin, because it is almost irrefutable. If you are in opposition, you can literally “do nothing”. Every time Brown says “they will do nothing” and Cameron flails ineffectually in response, then it probably costs the Tories ten thousand votes.
So Osborne needs to show how “good” he is by coming up with a clever and deft response - fast. Obviously the Tories need to do SOMETHING - or promise something - and it needs to be dramatic and headline grabbing, without giving a hostage to fortune.
Morus may be right about tax cuts. I dunno. But SOMETHING needs to be promised to rebut the DO NOTHING accusation.
284 Nick P - reasonable post from someone in your position. Can you teach your leader how to apologise and teach the Home Secretary to apologise graciously?
Indeed I am intrigued how you think Brown will continue to produce meaningful and popular policies as such policies normally cost considerable money (more debt, negative interest rates, go to the IMF?) whilst hiding the public sector cut backs that are already happening and the private sector failures that will lead to a massive rise in unemployment (will he restructure the way the figures are calculated perchance?).
300 At least the Labour trolls can spell Osborne’s name correctly . As a LibDem troll I say keep the buffoon in place .
299 - I was fishing for 3/1 Mike - I’m far from convinced enough to risk the Spread Markets!
294 - The Tory Tax Cuts was scary in 1979, because it put Education and Health at risk, when the rich already had private care. And it still got Thatcher elected.
Now the NHS and Education are of less concern, and people don’t think the Tories will gut those services, it’s less of an issue.
Also, the case for Income Tax cuts is now less about “My right to keep my lovely piles of money”, and is now sold as “Lifting the majority of the working poor out of income tax altogether, by raising the tax free allowance”.
There is a social justice case for raising the tax allowance, especially given how much better that would be for tagetting ow incomes than a VAT cut.
313. They probably do know what they would do but they’re afraid to show their hand now as if it’s any good Labour will just steal it. Perhaps you’re right though and they need to take a gamble on it.
313. Yes, but after Christmas, when people are thinking about stuff again and looking for someone to blame their shitty lives on.
313-See Mike’s post about leads(304).
Why dont we do our own poll, we come from all over the country, we agree what questions to ask. The questions we ask, must be to people we dont know, and on a random basis.It would be loads of fun and give us lots to talk about comparing real polls with our own
310. Ah, I guess you have never encountered Brig. Sir Gregor MacGregor, Baronet of Bannatyne, Newtyle, Angus, Scotland, or their ilk
“We saved the World!” is not a bad slogan to attach itself to you, however loud the sniggers.
The trouble for the tories is that there is a recognisable grain of truth in the claim.
I’m sure Mandelson smiles everytime it is repeated.
274. Thanks Yokel. I know little about the NI side of things. It will be interesting to see how it begins to pan out.
O/T (or maybe not) I’ve just seen Mike Penning MP (Con, Hemel Hempstead & Shadow Minister for Health) speaking at the Dispatch Box on Dentistry.
Good CV (albeit under the wrong leaders), comes across well, cogent and decent on TV.
Anyone know anything about him - strikes me as another of the David Davies mould who should be given more air time.
313: seanT: “I still want you to win!!!”
lol
Do us all a favour, don’t try to deny your pale blue heart.
322 Go for it Gabble, I think you should put it on all your literature and get Gordon’s geeks and freaks to repeat it often.
313. 315. Less of the troll tag Mark. I have been on here openly saying it for weeks. I don’t really care whether the Tories get rid of him or not - but I do think they need to freshen up the team. It looks tired and a bit clueless.
324. Is That David Davis (former Shadow Home Sec) or David Davies MP?
Scott P.
Daves going to cull some of the posh lads anyway.
We all agree on that don’t we?
Its a question of what his focus groups are telling him about Osborne..
And by the way, if you can’t see the difference in how Gove and Osborne appear to the public then theres little I can do to help you.
328 - Hahaha! OK - hands up - I meant the Rt Hon Member for Haltemprice and Howden. Apologies to Hon Members for Monmouth and Blaunau Gwent respectively for the false alarm.
““We saved the World!” is not a bad slogan to attach itself to you, however loud the sniggers.”
Even if it’s total bullsh*t, like “soldier of truth”?
313 - But if Osborne has single handedly reduced the Tory lead from 20% to 3%, did he not also increase it from a deficit last year during the Brown bounce to a 20% lead. If you quote figures, don’t be selective / Brownlike.
What has changed since the 20% lead to now. Labour has given more and more money away to the poor, robbing from the rich. They rob in every way imaginable (VAT has increased by 1% for all service businesses because of the 15% cut, this has gone directly to the chavs).
The poor and permanently unemployed have gained enormously. The poor and employed are better off in the short term, but the risk of losing their jobs has vastly increased. These are the floating voters who will turn as they become unemployed.
The middle classes have hardened behind the Tories. They can see the writing on the wall for next year. The poor will only see it when they continue to lose their jobs in droves.
This has nothing to do with Osborne. It has everything to do with bribery by Robert Brown.
301. Michael Gove was adopted by a fish merchant. George Osborne is the eldest son and heir to Sir Peter Osborne the 17th Baronet.
While Gove was educated at public school, that was because of a scholarship. George Osborne was educated at public school because his parents paid for him.
Gove may be Oxford educated and public school, but his background is interesting. It’s a lot more ’social mobility’ than ‘inheritance tax’.
The reason the ‘Do Nothing Party’ rings true with people is because that’s what the Tories do in a recession - they have good form on it!
What exactly are they promising middle England right now????? Spending less than Labour (Tory Cuts Sound Familiar), look after the people on the dole (Tories = dole queues), let the recession take it’s course (do nothing)—- why on earth do the Tories on here not get it - you need policies rapidly and not policies to CUT spending!!!! Smiles and Spin have had their day with Blair - Cameron is a poor copy - Davis should have been the Tory leader and when it all goes wrong maybe we will at last get a decent opposition!
319. Mike’s slightly effete point doesn’t really refute the fact that Labour are now close, by any definition, to being the largest party in a hung parliament - whereas a few weeks back they looked like they would lose to a landslide.
327 My opinion of Osborne hit rock bottom with his ludicrous fuel regulator proposals , he has managed to push it down even lower since .
Just checked on Iain Dale and ConHome blogs to see their reaction to the ICM poll. Doesn’t seem to be mentioned - funny that
Hear Nothing, Do Nothing, Say Nothing.
330. Good to see the clarification! I agree though I think that Davis needs to be back in the front line.
334. Are you now back in the Ozzie Out camp or are you past caring?
334 Labour are still going to lose by a landslide, Sean. They can’t hold the election until Ireland has voted “YES” to Lisbon, which means October/November next year. By which time of course the economy will be in the shape of a pear.
They can’t hold the election before the Irish vote in case they lose it, and the Conservatives schedule their own vote on Lisbon for the same day as the Irish on.
But if they changed Osborne would they also change the policy announced by Cameron only a few days ago. Cant remember it exactly but something about cancelling the VAT decrease and cutting jobs.
Who on the back benches of the Tory party is going to give up their well paid 2nd and 3rd jobs in these uncertain times? Their Sallys and Hermiones would allow it!
332. I have mixed feelings about Osborne. I thought his IHT move was very smart. He was very good at the PBR response.
But his last performance with Paxman was lamentable. Just saying “we will cut public services by more than Labour”, but refusing to put a figure on it, is an invitation to ridicule.
And indeed he looked ridiculous. I know the dilemma - they haven’t seen the books, they don’t want to give Labour ideas to steal - but nonetheless in the depths of a dire downturn his refusal to give figures seemed evasive and inept.
And he does look too young and too posh and too callow for a possible economic depression. Simple as.
I don’t see why moving him is such a political disaster. So Labour will crow and say it’s a victory - who gives a toss? The public don’t care about this partisan chortling and sniping, as Tories have learned, to bitter effect, over Greengate.
Lot of clueless short-termist comments on here. Labour are on 33% in this poll. At a time when people still feel they have money to spend, when interest rates are tumbling, when shops are offering 50,60,70% off, Labour are at 33%. The Conservatives are not ahead by enough to win an election. But this is as good as it gets for Labour.
Getting involved in tactical skirmishes is just a silly game for the Opposition to play when there is no imminent prospect of an election. Come the new year Labour will have used up almost all its ammunition. It could even be too late by the time of the budget. And the polls will rapidly reverse. It will only take a small swing back to the Tories and we will be back in landslide territory.
Hmm, a discussion devoted to the career prospects of George Osborne - again! Sorry guys, but these post-poll threads really aren’t the best.
Unsurprisingly Bob Quick has not made the short list of the Met Chief job. Stephenson has:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/3796295/Four-candidates-to-be-next-Scotland-Yard-Commissioner.html
335 Don’t usually respond to a troll from an insignificant party, but the problem is no one cares about the Lib Dem position on Osborne. Now the anti-Iraq vote will unwind after the next election, and you don’t have a charismatic leader like Kennedy, the Lib Dem vote will collapse whether Labour or the Tories get power. I just cannot see those people who voted Lid Dem as a protest against the Iraq war returning to Labour, can you? How hypocritical would that be? I don’t like Campbell, I did like Kennedy. But it doesn’t matter because I wouldn’t waste my vote voting Lib Dem even if a fusion of all the best bits of Thatcher, Blair and Cameron were fused.
I see the site lost touch with real life in the hour or two that I was watching the telly.
Just read it and wonder why politicians are so distrusted and why they will likely become despised if the recession bites as much as the US is telling us it will. It’s a useful window on the soul of those who think that political victory is more important than doing what is best, and boy is that soul blackened.
Robusticus - Tormenting Tories is fun!
Just thinking about why Labour is gaining when the economic outlook is so bad, could it be that this recession is nothing like what we’ve had before? Previous recessions were caused by the economy overheating and the government having to slam on the brakes by jacking up interest rates. What has caused this recession was a drying up of the credit markets,inflation wasn’t a contributing factor and people didn’t see prices shoot up beforehand and remain high for a considerable period while they lost their jobs and created the feel bad factor. This time the economy hasn’t burst like a balloon, it’s collapsed like a souffle. People have suddenly seen prices fall very sharply, more by retailers desperate to shift stock than due to the VAT cut, in addition, petrol prices which were driven up by an artificial and speculator driven oil price spike have fallen down to very low levels. SeanT has been consistently saying that people are noticing the big discounts and the lower mortgage payments and this has been warming them to Labour.
The moment of truth for Brown and Cameron will be when the special offers stop and people start to lose their jobs in increasing numbers. Also don’t rule out higher petrol prices. Looking at the the oil price it appears to have bottomed out at about $43-$44 a barrel and big producers like Chavez and the Iranians are pushing for production cuts as the low prices are hurting them badly, Brown may yet regret not including fuel in the VAT cut. We are in uncharted waters, politically and economically, any outcome is possible. This GE and it’s run up will be on that future historians will devote a lot of time to studying!
All the indications are that there will be a big Tory counterattack in the New Year. Timing is everything. People should wait.
329. Sorry tim, I thought your position was predicated on public school
Dave knows its a problem and is preparing a cull.I’ll bet you £100 that there’s less public schoolboys after his reshuffle.
by tim December 13th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
I missed the change to “posh lads”
341. SeanT I don’t see why moving him is such a political disaster. So Labour will crow and say it’s a victory
Because it effectively means you are sacking you’re number 2. You’re most valued colleague. It would undermine the credibility of a party’s economic stance.
Speaking of Ireland, it’s looking really serious for them.
He confirmed that in less than 18 months, we have gone from being Europe’s strongest economy to, by far, its weakest.
…
In simple terms, what this means is that Ireland now faces going beyond recession and into a depression,
…
with an overall contraction of perhaps somewhere in the region of 3 per cent to 4 per cent. The fall in the 2008 revenue take alone would push the 2009 general government deficit up by approximately €1.5bn to 7.25 per cent of GDP.”
…
We could see unemployment top 12 per cent before the end of 2010.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/our-recession-will-give-way-to-depression-as-leaders-flounder-1574439.html
341. Great post. I think that analysis is completely right. I think if they brought in Clarke in a January New Year reshuffle it would play out okay, but they won’t. Portillo was saying that if they reject Clarke and lose again, Europe will have lost them another election, even though it was never an election issue. He could be right.
If Cameron sacks Osborne, it will be an act of extreme political cowardice - he may aswell sack himself, so close are they.
I said something similar when there was speculation that Brown might remove Darling.
The tories’ problem isn’t Osborne, it’s Cameron.
347. Be careful you don’t fly too close to the sun Icarus.
Will people shut the hell up about Clarke, tories don’t want him because he was pretty useless and a nineties throwback, others don’t want him because he was pretty useless and a nineties throwback, although they are now pretending they don’t think that. Why lie? It’s pointless and just makes everyone look like they are more interested in petty point scoring rather than acknowledging we are in the mire and *doing something about it*.
354. That’s interesting. Did you hear Brown saying that Labour’s new strategy was to attack Cameron? Pure coincidence, no doubt.
324. Yes Morus, He is an ex-firefighter and soldier, when Buncefield occured, which is in his seat he did himself alot of good in working with the authorities and presenting himself well in the media. He could well turn out to be a Norman Tebbit like figure if/ When Cameorn gets into Government after a few years.
He did media relations for the anti-euro eight Tory MP’s IIRC.
353 Get rid of a young, recogniseable, media savvy, intelligent Chancellor and replace him with Clarke, a dinosaur of a politician with no appeal to Tory voters? The Tories are the party of the future, not the past. See Mandleson, Brown, Campbell for definition of a political dinosaur.
354 yet more nonsense Gabble, how do you wtite all this trash?
356. He actually commands a lot of respect from many people I talk to, swing voters. Why so shrill?
353. Quoting Portillo? Well that is really going to make Conservatives sit up and listen (more likely to make them go get a bucket!).
341. seanT
Did you catch any of the Queen’s Speech debate yesterday? The government implemented yet another of Osborne’s proposals.
From Sky
Gordon Brown hailed them as ‘new measures to speed up the resumption of lending to homeowners and businesses.’
The Treasury, more prosaically, described it as a ‘rather technical announcement’.
Either way the ‘Changes to the Credit Guarantee Scheme’ released this afternoon mark a significant change in the terms of the Government’s much hailed bank bail-out.
Since the plan was announced in October, the credit markets have remained gummed up.
British banks have stubbornly refused to provide the credit the economy needs, pointing to the high-cost of accessing cash under GB’s rescue plan.
The PM and Chancellor insisted that the high fees were essential to protect tax-payers’ interests and discourage banks’ reckless lending practices.
But today the Government adjusted those very fees downward - a move George Osborne called for over a month ago.
The Treasury says that the participating banks will still be charged a commercial rate, but the announcement is something of a climbdown, nonetheless.
362. I don’t really care whether they listen, I just wanted to credit the analysis. Just saying he could be right
356. It’s quite intriguing about how Labourites are so enamored with Clarke. Those of us who can remember him in his time as the Health and Education Secretaries remember that he rivaled Thatcher as their biggest hate figure!
In 9 months time, unemployment will be rising, pay rises will be non existent, the £ will have sunk even lower, the polls will be showing surging ahead in the polls and the odds on the Tories winning the next election will be tumbling.
Trouble is.. those odds will be referring to the 2013/14 election.
365 they are not enamoured of Clarke, they want GO out, its all a load of spin.
365 - I particularly dislike him because of his ties to tobacco companies.
365 - It is as blatant as a Tory calling for Kinnock to replace Blair in 1997, or for Prescott to replace Darling now. The focus is because they know he is a threat. Darling is never mentioned because he is a threat to no-one.
351. I disagree, obviously.
I reckon if Cammo moved Osborne (and I’m not saying it would be some panacea if he did) - but… IF he moved him I am sure every Labourite on here would wee themselves with delight, and the broadsheets would have rhapsodies, but your average voter probably wouldn’t even notice, and if they did, they’d just shrug. We all get over-excited by these minor matters.
Then next time the voters looked up it would be someone older and grizzlier and wiser and better making a speech as Shadow Chancellor and the voters might go… “hmmm…. he’s talking sense…”
It’s just marketing. In a downturn you want some old grey boring reliable bloke as yer bank manager, not some cocky whippersnapper who has whizzy ideas. The Chancellor is the National Bank Manager.
This is a particularly acute problem for the Tories as Cameron is ALSO a young whippersnapper. They need to dilute callow youth with crabbed age.
361. Clarke was on Sky on Sunday and made it clear he has no interest in coming back. He knows that the party is now more generally (if more moderately) Eurosceptic and he knows he would be a divisive figure.
All the talk of him coming back is nonsense . It just ain’t going to happen.
356. Clarke was wrong on the VAT tax cut anyway - I think that is where Brown got the idea from!
Some people on here, who alighn themselves with the right do their objectives no good - It comes to something when Tories start shitting themselves about “just” a 5 point lead!
They then start shitting themselves for no apparant reason - better sticking to righting fruity books! 
Even seasoned old ministers like Beckitt were talking about certain shadow ministers (Grieve) being in government in 18 months! Freuidian slip perhaps!
She still said it!
366 - Penny, I think you will be surprised how rapidly things deteriorate in the first few months of next year.
I think there’s little chance of an election next year. To have a chance of an election Labour will have to improve from their current position. But if they improve then Brown will inevitably hold out for something better.
372 Nice to see a sober Mr Day on here again. Missed last nights events “live”, but at least Mr Day speks with passion, unlike the others on here (Gabble, Tim, Jonathan, Darmstadium, benbobjim etc - the Draper tag team).
370. Look what the dour onw did the most sober suited bank manager you ever did see but he raped the taxpayer and many sectors of the economy.
When Brown talks about lecturing cameron on economics, I think Brown forgets that we don’t want to go back to barter and stone age society. That is where Brown is taking this country, I really wish Brown would do nothing as he just wastes money and makes it worse.
I was amused by Mr Senoir going on about the Tories being the do-nothing party, Now tell me Mark - What are the LD policies at the moment. Do they support the government spending VAT etc?
370 “It’s just marketing. In a downturn you want some old grey boring reliable bloke as yer bank manager, not some cocky whippersnapper who has whizzy ideas. The Chancellor is the National Bank Manager.”
i.e. Vince Cable??!!
347: ‘Robusticus - Tormenting Tories is fun!’
Maybe! But it is getting a bit samey: Tories defending Ozzy to the ends of the earth; Lib Dems and Labourites recommending his replacement by Clarke/Davies/Gove/Redwood/Grayling/Pickles/Hague/Fox/Willets or some other Tory who they wouldn’t have an iota of respect for were they actually to be appointed to the post. Not that I mind such a discussion per se. It’s just that it’s now EVERY TIME!
370 Sorry on this one you’re wrong. Not enough time and nobody to fit the bill (Clarke won’t come back).
Elsewhere in the Shadow Cabinet perhaps Davis and others possibly can come back but not the Chancellor and not the Foreign Sec (for other reasons).
Brown is apparently worried about his hearing, after being diagnosed with Medomalacuphobia.
352. That Irish news is extraordinary. A 4.25% annual contraction in GDP is enormous.
It means Lisbon 2 might be very hard to win - if it becomes a vote of judgment on the government. However if the pro-Europeans can scare everyone - vote No and things will be even worse - they might romp home.
Interesting times yadda yadda.
377. Agreed it is getting decidedly tedious. I’m off…….
380. That appears to be the consensus over here. The view is that it will bring home to people how dependent Ireland is on the EU and it will deliver a yes vote.
It stinks to high hell of course, but it’s not very surprising.
The trend started to become apparent as further polls came out even prior to this ICM. The position does not surprise me although a bigger Conservative lead would be better and Labour at 33% is not all that good for them either if you think about it sensibly! There is all sorts of wild analysis in the comments in this thread but lets look at some basic facts. Firstly Conservatives were riding very high in the summer (arguably an unreal peak) and generating high expectations that go with such high poll figures. They were seen as literally a Govt in waiting but there was still some desire to know what the opposition was really driving at (the slow striptease had been mentioned and the worry about not giving Labour policy ideas). Then at that key point there was a break in the narrative around the time of the economic crisis really kicking off. Brown started punching out a consistent message and people were worried about the economy and looked to the actual Govt to act. Not being in Govt makes it hard for an opposition to “do something” but it is fair to say there was some hesitation. The Labour spin machine kicked in well and kept going and the media seemed generally helpful given the national threat atmosphere. The flow of Conservative narrative was broken and disrupted and a sufficiently clear strong message was not coming through, perhaps exacerbated by the fact that few politicians were sure what to do and if truth was told still aren’t sure (evidence suggests the frenetic Govt “action” may be very visible but isn’t actually working). Nowadays registering a position with the public requires strong consistent messages to break through all the “noise”. On that measure its just an observable fact that the Govt message was breaking through and the Conservative one wasn’t to anywhere near the same degree. Various diversions made that worse (Mandelson probably had some hand in those) and some pretty unpleasant but crafty spin helped. A consistent Conservative message did resume more recently and I suspect that arrested what could have been further decline in the Conservative lead from the arguably unreal peak in the summer. Add to this that no-one knows what is going to happen next and how bad a recession might be. Polls are snap shots and people just answer in a raw and fundamental way. At the moment it appears that the Govt is doing lots (its mostly rubbish but its apparently action) and at the same time interest rates have had to come down (people are getting letters stating lower mortgage payments). That said it will not be enough, or the right thing to do, just to wait and think a bad economy will damage Labour. It probably will but people do want the opposition to set out its approach by setting the agenda again and leading the charge. The issues remain the same as before just with the economy at the top of the agenda - explaining what Conservatives stand for, where do they want to lead the UK, what sort of policy picture is in mind, how will it help ordinary people and offer a positive future.
Yes sorry Robusticus, must try and stop. perhaps we should wait for the Tory couner attack in the new year £1 to 1d they announce a shiney new policy and have to back track when it is rubbished all round.
Unfortunately I am dying of the flu so may well miss the next election - off to bed!
380 - Not good news for the Euro either. The pound plunging is not a good advert for the strength UK economy, but at least it gives us a prospect of a way out. God knows what the Irish are supposed to do. Leave the country?
382. Unpredictable though. The voters might resent the scare tactics and the bullying. The pro-Europeans will have to play their hand carefully - overdo it, and the rebel spirit of the Irish might recrudesce.
But I still think the Yes men will win.
382. Particularly as the euro has exacerbated their problems. But I don’t think any major player is willing to make that case. Libertas is very pro-EU, for example.
I would be interested to see the polling on this. Bear in mind that there will be a whole 9 months or so for the EU to do or not do something for the Irish economy. And other parts of the eurozone are going down - Greece for one - so an Irish no could be seen as a peoples of Europe protest against the leaders. All sorts of possibilities.
380. You can be sure that the vote will be put into an economic context rather than as a matter of freedom and rights. Vote YES to be saved from recession, vote NO to avoid making matters worse.
Completely O/T but may be of interest as the trolls have brought up Osborne again. This is the reply from the BBC to my complaint about Pestons revelation of price sensitive information:
Thank you for your e-mail. Please accept our apologies for the delay in replying. We know our correspondents appreciate a quick response and we are sorry you have had to wait on this occasion.
We understand you were concerned with the way we covered allegations that George Osbourne tried to solicit a £50,000 donation from Oleg Deripaska. BBC News has responded to audience concerns and has outlined how they approached these allegations and felt it was necessary to given indepth coverage into them:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2008/10/storm_over_corfu.html
With regards to Robert Peston reporting this issue, you may be interested in the following blog entry:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2008/10/only_one_conclusion.html
Hidden away on an editors blog.
385. The politics of the Euro could be very tricky. It’s going to be hard to stop the resentment growing against the German-dominated ECB. It could even split.
This will be good news for the Tories in the long term. Complacency is their enemy. The last time we were in this situation -polls looking bad, speculation about an early election, etc., look what happened. And the same is bound to happen here.
Option A: Brown hitches up his skirt, finds his balls, and calls an election. At last the public will be listening to the arguments, at last some connection will be established in their minds as to why they can’t afford a holiday this year and why Woollies has closed, and the man who has been at the helm for 11 years. The Tories always do better come election time than they have been polling during the run up.
Option B: Brown bottles it. Economy goes from bad to worse. Chickens come home to roost. Labour wiped out as a political force for good. Lib Dems to become the official opposition.
Brown has a choice between losing small now and losing big then.
Cameron would need to have some kind of political death wish in order let Davis return. He’s stormed off once without doing too much damage but if he were to storm off for a second time (maybe even during a GE campaign?) then it’d most certainly be game over for the Conservatives.
David Davis simply doesn’t seem by nature to be a team player and should never even have been in the shadow cabinet to start with. That’s something I’ve been saying here since forever - along with predicting that he’d resign at some point.
I’ll be laughing for days at the incredible irony that a poster called Margaret Thatcher Fan called Gordon Brown the most hated PM in living memory. I don’t doubt he is at Conservative Party meetings! But he will never ever get anywhere near the hatred in the country at large that “that bloody woman” had.
392. That’s because you mix in different circles. I can assure you that Labour are as hated amongst some people as Thatcher was amongst others. ‘ZanuLab’ isn’t a joke for many.
I reckon Labour has been helped by recent falls in petrol prices, shop sale prices, and mortgage rates (those with mortgages are probably quicker to react positively than savers are to react negatively).
But, I think all these polls are misleading guides to a General Election, which takes place after 3+ weeks of intense media scrutiny with party leaders being subjected to far more grilling than normal. In this I expect Cameron and Clegg to outperform the leaden-footed Brown. This may be worth quite a few percentage points. The cheap do-nothing taunts of Brown will not stand up given the immense number of silly do-anythings which he has done and will have done and still have the UK in deep recession. Brown’s only hope is the UK economy showing renewed vigour - and this is not going to come from the bloated public sector. I think I’ll have the chance to add to my positions on 2010 election and Tory majority at better odds than over the last fortnight. The next exciting backdrop for electors is their credit card bills, reading about redundancies, falling house prices, and realising there is little more to come in the way of mortgage reductions. Savers have a grim outlook.
Ireland again:
Joe Costello, speaking at a conference in Dublin, gave the first firm indication that, at this moment in time, the Government cannot rely on Labour supporting the second Lisbon referendum.
He referred to party leader Eamon Gilmore’s comments following the referendum result in June that Labour will oppose a second referendum unless there are significant advances and amendments in the new proposals that will be put to the Irish people.
“As it stands, we are not satisfied that there are significant advances to this area of greatest concern to us,” he said.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/1215/breaking74.htm
394. I agree entirely! Is it any coincidence that the 20 point Tory leads coincided with pump prices going off the scale? I made a post at 348 about the difference between this recession caused by a credit crunch, and previous one caused by an overheated, inflation hit economy. In previous cases, people saw prices shoot up, followed by letters from the bank advising them that their mortgages were going up due to higher base rates and then usually they lost their jobs. This time inflation wasn’t a factor and people are seeing their monthly outgoings go down sharply. The unemployment is still to hit in a big way and that will be the moment of truth.
394/396. I’ll third it. I’m doing pretty well out of this recession, mortgage way down, petrol price not hurting, prices down in the shops. I think the real inflation was one of the key reasons Labour plummeted so much in the summer, and why they’re relatively bouncing now.
However this is very short term and at the election, voters will be being presented with 5 more years of Gordon Brown as a prospect. That should focus minds a bit more.
372
If anyone knows where Martin Day lives would they please pop round and remove all the knives from the kitchen drawer, and all the tablets from the bathroom cabinet.
If any one knows where seant lives……errr don’t bother.
398 I know that was meant in jest, Coldstone, but one guy I am seriously worried about is Jan From Norway. He’s not been heard from since Obama was elected.
If the opposition wants to get Labour on the backfoot they have to get them on trust and competence.
Trust in Labour went out the window with Iraq. The more it was repeated and used with any Labour claim or attck on the opposition it blunted those attacks.
The opposition has to start reraising that issue through calls for an inquiry. Over 5 years after the invasion we still don’t have one. If they revitalise that at any opportunity (whenever Brown says anything about Iraq) and use as many hooks as possible to get it up the agenda they can then tie it in with all other Labour claims/attacks. i.e. “After Iraq no-one believes what Labour says. Their claims on this are just as spurious as …”
On competence Brown’s veneer went out the window with the 10p tax thingy and fuel prices. As far as I know there are still 1 million affected despite the package. That should addressed to remind voters of his incompetence.
Remind, remind, remind.
No, i think the reasons for the big Tory poll leads were the 10P tax debacle, Brown being shifty and evasive, IIRC the Inflation and Mortgage rates were seen in polling terms as not being something the government had much leverage on.
Therefore the inverse will be true now.
The reason why Brown has shifted in the polls is because he has being taking decisions and spending money. He could not even take decisions before.
I do wonder whether Greengate was a calculated move to shift the political classes view away from the economy and onto partisan affairs? Many traditional Labour voters would blame a dead tory chicken on the floor than say a Labour fox with blood smeared by its mouth was at fault!
Labour will not win the next election, their senior figures occasionally let the mask slip but they will be defeated at the next election. It is just a matter of by how much?
396. 397. Good to see like thinkers … sorry I hadn’t read the thread and post 348. Another dimension is the low £ which for many non-champagne socialists makes continental jaunts and sun-seeking seem so expensive. It’ll really hit the skiing fraternity this winter. The net effect of the low £ will surely be a vote loser, especially when Gordon Brown has his own quotes about weak currency = weak economy thrown in his face. How will leaden chops deal with that?
399
Don’t worry he’s from Norway, all Norwegians sink into a drunken stupor till March.
Labour cheer 33% - gawd luv a duck.
Snowdon for strictly far more interesting.
403. Were you a sailor Coldstone?
403 Ah, is that so?
I suppose that’s why he calls himself Jan From Norway, then. Jan From Eastbourne wouldn’t make a great deal of sense.
405. Just because he likes seamen dont go 2+2=5
I do love the cut and thrust of PB on nights like this.
Must say that Labour sock puppets are a little cocky for a 33% poll rating. What part of “this is as good as it gets” are they struggling with?
However, the biggest revelation is sean t;lion hearted scourge of Brown in balmy summer days to quivering knicker wetter in the deep mid winter.What a contrast.
If this were the general election result and it produced the number of seats that Wells predicts then I would predict it would produce an absolute outrage and we’d certainly end up with riots.
404. On her at 13-1. Very upset about this Chambers business
408. Correct - every Tory in the house should cheer this poll - anything to bring Brown to the booth before June 2010 should be applaued from the heights.
405
No! although my wife served in the WRNS, in fact she’s fourth generation RN. During her service she only ever went to sea once, (WRNS didn’t in those days) and the Frigate broke down and had to be towed back to Valetta.
408. We’ll be seeing what happens in a real poll on Thursday Stewart. Here’s hoping.
408 - Mr Jackson, representing Peterborough, make sure Dave doesn’t think you’re posh rather than Posh, it could damage your career.
all very good knockabout stuff here.
one thing i would say is that usually Labour try to say what policies would the tories have etc where’s the beef. Now I see the line is to ask who is to get sacked. A lot of playing the man not the ball. very Mandelsonian.
my own personal reaction is that a steady hand is needed. Get through Christmas and start campaigning in the new year. I get the impression that all Lab MPs have been told not to speculate openly about a possible early election, but I suspect the majority are hoping Brown goes for it.
From conhome
Tory Whips are telling MPs to be ready for a 26th February election.
No chance, I think.
“However, the biggest revelation is sean t;lion hearted scourge of Brown in balmy summer days to quivering knicker wetter in the deep mid winter.What a contrast.”
Stewart - My theory is that he’s being zombied in some mysterious way by a Labour hit team (employed by Baron Mandelson), and now his eyes have a peculiar glazed look and there’s a tendency for him to assert a humble-Stepford-Conservative-scarred-by-2001-and-2005 mode. He’ll definitely need watching over the coming months.
408
He’s bi-polar y’know I’ve told him, come off the pink tablets, skip the mauve, go straight onto the purple.
416 - That’ll just be to stop them flapping and speculating.
re my train comments on the previous thread. With the first day of the new timetable I was already impressed with the speed of the London to Birmingham service, or I should save London to Coventry because of course with no money for duelling the track we got stuck behind the local trains from then on. That’s the sort of spending we don’t get.
Also a high speed rail service might make sense for some residents of Birmingham and earn the country some money. Currently with all the hassle of getting to Heathrow if I want to fly anywhere even slightly esoteric I’m far better off going KLM to AMS.
416. got a link mate?
416. “No chance, I think.”
More like 16/1…
Mervyn gives up the pretence of trying to meet the inflation target - Quite incredible!
Telegraph: Mervyn King warns on inflation
“In a letter to Alistair Darling, Mr King said that the Bank is effectively suspending its efforts to meet the 2pc CPI target until 2011 as a combination of the recession and the temporary VAT cut make inflation far more volatile than usual. The admission that the Bank will not aim to meet the target over the next year and a half will cause some consternation in the City, where inflation stability is viewed as one of the most important precepts of the central bank.” And here was I thinking the inflation target has been missed for well over a year - hardly a ‘temporary disturbance’!!! What a fraudster. We’re in this mess BECAUSE he failed to more accurately track inflation
410 Ditto, Woody. Chambers would very likely have gone out had the Beeb not cocked up the scoring. I reckon Rachel Stevens is the likely winner now and have adjusted accordingly, but the fiasco cost me money.
Btw, you at Ascot Saturday? Great card.
421
Your wish etc.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/12/tory-support-sl.html
re 24 Nick I don’t claim, I state categorically that Gordon Brown is an incontrovertibly proven liar. What was it Lincoln said about fooling some of the people…
425. If an erection is coming they would be silly not to tell MP’s not to get ready. No point being caught out and wasting the opportunity to press the flesh with the electorate!
I haven’t looked at the data myself, but one important thing that struck me from the Speccy write up of this poll was the Brown is now rated as more honest than Cameron.
Cameron has real problems is that is true, how ever many porkies Brown has told, and there are plenty, the general populous still think he is honest (or at least more honest than Cameron).
One of the big pluses that the Tories thought they had was that Call Me Dave was seen by many many people as a straight kinda of normal-ish guy, and somehow that made him more acceptable.
On Labour side, there this kind of news is a red rag to a bull to continue with more of the same dodgy stats, re-announce previous funding as new, and of course the big one “we have reduced debt in the past 10 years and it is only getting bigger because of taking action to limit the impact of the financial crisis caused by the yanks”.
424. Recovering from this weeks by election all weekend I think Peter. Looks a terrific card though with the Boylesports rescheduled.
Had more bad news with Ince getting sacked today. Got 12-1 on Blackburn being relegaed. Might go and get a decent manager now
428. Was the poll before the “we lied about knife crime stats” debacle?
Well, here’s my tuppence.
I was reading this page on my mobile on the train home. In the taxi on the way the station, I went out of my way to ask the driver what he made of it all.
He said the key thing - he stated his belief that it’s a global crisis, a global economy, we are now affected by a butterfly flapping its wings in Costa Rica etc
In short, he was repeating the very successful Labour spin of the situation. It has entered the national psyche, so that Brown is not getting much of the blame for the situation we are in, and people are more than willing to hold on to nurse.
Of course it’s a global issue, but made worse in this country by the policies of Brown and Labour.
However, the Tories have so far been rather inept at getting this across.
This has not been helped by a media only too willing to turn back to Labour (the BBC the worst offender. I think Alastair Campbell actually produces their news programmes).
Things have been unravelling for the Tories since Steve Hilton moved to California. Not sure if that has anything to do with it. Andy Coulson needs to sort out how he gets the message across in the media, because at the moment it is 1)disjointed 2) too quite and, well 3) ignored.
The Tores have been awful at finding a soundbite that has the same affect as the “do-nothing Tories” of Labour. They have also been awful at focusing on a small handful of issues and relentlessly pounding away at them.
Instead - back to the butterfly anology - Cameron has been too much like a butterfly of late, moving from subject to subject without staying on one long enough to get any clear message across and hurt Labour.
HOWEVER
That said, if Labour are celebrating at getting 33% then that shows how much the (less than) mighty have fallen.
There is a good chance this is the high point for Labour. It’s Christmas, people are enjoying the sales, the media is with Labour and interest rates etc have been lowered.
Even extraordinary criticism from the German government has missed Brown like a badly-aimed shoe at an Iraqi pess conference…
So, for all of the above, for the Tories to be 5% ahead (and possibly still more in the marginals) is quite an extraordinary feat in itself.
As for DC, making a reshuffle will have zero effect if the reshuffled cabinet continues to remain so impetant when it comes to spinning and media performance.
It’s message execution and coherence that needs to be much, much improved, not personnel as such.
Though, if the Tories had Mandelson, they’d probably be up by 20% and calling Brown to a no-confidence vote by now. What an arsehole that he’s Labour!
Don’t know what the big fuss is about, Tories still ahead by 5 points during Brown’s save the world tour.
The man is busting a gut, his party spinning like it’s 1997 and yet he’s STILL behind!
These aren’t normal political times and Brown’s made it clear he will do whatever he wants regardless of anyone else’s opinion. Let him get on with it until after Christmas say I. Have a rest for a couple of weeks and let them get on with it, pipe up if the situation arises but don’t go looking to wade in.
Heads up on the Telegraph tommorrow… King says ‘ Brown’s bail out is not working ‘.
have to say that politics since the economy turned is like a game of chicken. With Brown and Cameron both driving at full tilt towards eachother waiting for the other to swerve. However, they are still accelerating at eachother and looking more and more determined to straightline it.
another interesting thought is whether the Tories have a better leader but worse troops, whereas Labour has a worse leader but better troops. the difference being that Labour now has mandy back running the show, with Gordon looking like he is making the plays when it is in fact Mandelson telling him what to do. it’s a funny old world.
427. ‘If an erection is coming’
Amused my immature sense of humour
428: ‘…from the Speccy write up of this poll was the Brown is now rated as more honest than Cameron.’
But is that one of Mike’s dreaded unweighted ‘attitude’ questions?
re 284 Labour 5% behind a “decent poll”. A poll which if accurate would see you getting your P45. Nick is this a post lagershed posting?
As alex (and others) have pointed out above, it’s worth noting that Labour are still in the low-thirties “box” (remember when the Tories were stuck there?).
Yes, cameron certainly has to take note of the weakening of the Tory vote share in the recent polling round - I do think that the repeated “do nothing Party” tag is sticking. A simple, straightforward, popular yet workable direction/mantra is needed (cf Ken’s “smarter spending” or Morus’s “lifting the low paid out of tax”). This is where Osborne’s IHT masterstroke of last year hit home and the same kind of target they need to hit again.
I’m currently of the opinion that the Mandelson/Campbell approach that worked so well for Labour in the past could have a serious flaw in the present: their approach seems to be the relentless negative jibe/miscasting method, painting the negative paint over the Tories. This used to boost Labour by default, albeit at a cost of reducing engagement/turnout due to the residue of “they’re all as bad as each other” disillusionment from those who gave up rather than switched. The painting positive paint on Labour aspect tended to be less successful (their best efforts tended to be on the attacking of negative stories rather than the generation of positive stories).
However, with the shiny paint well and truly knocked off of Labour over the past decade-and-a-bit, the default boost for Labour doesn’t seem to occur. They can still mix it up and deliver a kicking (although with arguably reduced effectiveness due to Cameron being less of an easy target than Major/Hague/IDS/Howard) but the quashing of negative stories (their recent efforts have been more of the “spread the dirt around” rather than “hose it away” variety) has been lacking.
The Labour public relations team need to get better at the positive aspect - they seriously need to in order to convert a faltering Tory share into a real opportunity - it’s essential for them to break out of the low thirties (and do so consistently - we all remember flashes where the Tories tweaked out of the box briefly before subsiding again) for them to think about piling all of the chips into the middle.
The Tory public relations team need to get better at deflecting the Labour attacks and producing their positive aspect. They’ve slipped from their forties share and have to grab hold again before it becomes more than a blip. They know that the populace are ready to listen (cf the mid forties shares of this year) - they’ve got to give them something to listen to.
And the Lib Dems? If Labour and the Tories keep tearing chunks out of each other with no positive paint applied at all, they’ll be laughing all the way to the ballot box. The “Third-party-squeeze” election could well end up being the “Christ, we actually got a Hung Parliament” election and they’d be in the position they’ve wanted for a rather long time (of course, remember the old saying: “Be careful what you wish for” …).
Interesting times.
(By the way, good to see Kieran posting again)
436. You forget the canvassing element.
433- Your last point is a good one.It wouldn’t surprise me to see Labour go after Dave directly, before he removes some of the weak people around him.
These people panic easily.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/12/tory-support-sl.html
re 383 MG if you would like people to read your posts please put some paragraphs in.
435 - Weighted or unweighted, I am still quite shocked. My experience when I talk to people (and hear people talk) is the vast majority hate Brown and they think he is a liar. They don’t trust anything he says. Flip side, people mubble that Cameron is ok (for a posh bloke), but many aren’t convinced but the rest of them i.e. Osborne.
Thus I do hear a fair amount of “well this current lot are bad, but not having those Tories again, that Thatcher, they were worse”. Thus I assume those people are still going to say they will vote Labour, because the “hearts are in the right place” and they are doing something. I never hear it is because that honest John of a PM is the making the right long term decisions, getting on with the job etc etc etc.
Word from the world of retail is Xmas just about OK, driven by huge discounting, VAT changes just giving money away, no impact on actual spending at all
Then from mid January, total carnage outside of food retailing, with salesfalling off a cliff
Net results - lots of job cuts in shops, certainly a number retail names as big as Woolies going bust and for Darling, lower and lower VAT revenues as sales collapse, hence bigger and bigger borrowing
Its going to be really bad next year, but given Browns history of cowardice, he’s only going to go early, if he can guarantee he’ll win. I don’t see where he’ll get one from and as Browns entire life has been about getting power, why will he give it up earlier than he has too?
307. It’s based on a House of 650, but the first default checkbox is “SF-abstain”, bringing the effective house size down to 645, with a majority being 323…
Adjustments can be also made for the likely 2 SDLP, and the likely 2 minor party seats Labour could win…
The Sun says:
“Bust bankers”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article2045395.ece
Mail comment:
“Cameron ducks the welfare question”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1096088/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Cameron-ducks-welfare-question.html
“408.However, the biggest revelation is sean t;lion hearted scourge of Brown in balmy summer days to quivering knicker wetter in the deep mid winter.What a contrast.
by Stewart Jackson MP December 16th, 2008 at 11:05 pm”
Actually, I’ve been saying you are a bunch of gormless posh twats, who are somehow gonna lose to the worst government since Aethelred the Unready, since about late Autumn, thanks very much.
SORT YOUR F*CKING ACT OUT, YOU PINSTRIPED DONKEYS PIZZLES
445. SORT YOUR F*CKING ACT OUT, YOU PINSTRIPED DONKEYS PIZZLES
Will somebody check Sean’s wiring, please?
444. One feels The Sun is gagging for strength from Cameron and the Tories. They’re willing to back him, but are hedging it until (if?) Brown Saviour of the World reaches its end.
I offer the following definition of this countries problems -Recession is when you lose your job. Depression is when your neighbour job loses his job. Recovery is when Gordon Brown loses his.
446. Checked….all in working order
253.
How many posts have there been praising Brown’s personal qualities?
Bit difficult considering he doesn’t have any, apart from expecting poor civil servants to be at his beck-and-call at 3am.
448. That’s nice Martin, I think I’ll borrow that one.
Please do! I got it from Ronald Reagan! It is good though!
I made a typo and switched it round a bit!
446. I consider myself a candid friend of the Conservative party.
453 You’re being cruel to be kind then?!
443. btw, hope you’re using the latest http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Swingometer2.xls
which is the R&T notionals
A point which is still very important in spite of The Postal voting system.
General elections are not won on the telephone. They are won by little black crosses on pieces of paper made in various Polling Stations over a 12 hour period.
The Labour Party have a decimated army on the ground. The Conservative Party will more then ever get its vote out. While an ever less amount of Labour activists are getting ever more pissed off making excuses for their own government for the past 11 years.
Also and much more importantly. The Establishment gave us a Thatcher government in 1979 a few years after the UK effectively went bust, via the BBC largely ignoring the woman for 4 years. So logically I see no reason why the establishment will not end up giving us at least a minority Cameron government in two years time. This as the establishments bills plus interests have now got to be paid back.
However please DO NOT put your hard earned and taxed on it. I could be wrong FOR ONCE, and take no personal responsibility for foolish and soul destroying activities.
You only make money gambling because some one else is obviously losing. This is not productive and so therefore is immorally obtained wealth.
It matters not how hard you believe you have worked trying to improve your odds or make your bet. The act is immoral all the same, as surly as you will soon lose the money somewhere else anyway. The net result may be a little entertainment but surly you can see that otherwise gambling is worse then completely pointless.
Maybe some of you would be better off doing or making something for someone, while getting them to pay you for it.
It really is much more useful, productive, community spirited, pleasurable and ultimately far more profitable.
re 396 The Wathcer/Bourneville you might well be onto something there (after all when was the only time the Tories were ahead in the 1997-2005 parliaments). Here’s the Tory average polls leads (from Wells) for each month in the last year and the supermarket average price of petrol (from the AA, except December which I’ve estimated)).
Month Price Tory lead
Nov 100.1 7.7
Dec 101.4 8.7
Jan 103.2 6.2
Feb 102.5 7
Mar 105.4 9.5
Apr 106.8 10.5
May 112.6 17.25
Jun 116.5 18.9
Jul 118.4 18.9
Aug 110.7 19.6
Sep 111.3 15.7
Oct 104.2 11.6
Nov 93.4 8.5
Dec 89 4
There’s quite a good correlation with an r squared of 0.78 and an equation of Tory lead = 0.568*(petrol price in pence) - 48.1
Suggests that if Gordon can get it down to below 85p he’d be leading again.
The three biggest outliers are Nov 08, Jan 07 and Aug 08.
453. Sean - Seriously, I really appreciate your postings. I think we could do with more non-Etonian hitters on the Tory front benches. Davis can be very effective and is good at verbal fisticuffs. A shame that Ken Clark has his European affliction.
458. Have you seen this?
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/12/justice-for-old-etonians.html
457. Chris thanks for that analysis! The oil price spike was entirely artificial and speculator drive, there where rumours that the hedge funds were piling into oil to make up their losses on sub-prime mortgages. Looking at the the oil price now it looks to have bottomed out at around $43-$44/barrel. For many OPEC members that’s not a sustainable price, Chavez and the Iranians are demanding production cuts to bring back $100/barrel as they are hurting badly at the current levels. They won’t get what they’re looking for but the price could start to creep back up. What impact that could have on the polls is anyone’s guess, Brown had a chance to do his bit to bring pump prices down with the VAT cut, but he excluded fuel from it, that could yet hurt him.
Meanwhile Ms Smith still can’t bring herself to apologise for breaching millions of people’s human right and is content to tinker round the edges. That woman is an insult to politicians everywhere. I hope that I can still afford a decent bottle of something for the “Smith moment” come 2010.
Here is an extract from Gordon Brown’s speech to the 2005 Labour Conference. Enjoy a man approaching the dizzy heights of the “end of boom and bust”:
“We will have the strength and resolution to take the right long-term economic decisions too.
Why has it been that at every point since 1997 faced with the Asian crisis, the IT collapse, a stock exchange crash, an American recession, last year a house price bubble, this year rising world oil prices, why has it been that at every point since 1997 Britain uniquely has continued to grow?
In any other decade, a house price bubble would have pushed Britain from boom to bust.
In any other decade, a doubling of oil prices would have put Britain first in last out and worst hit by a world downturn.
I tell you, it is because with Bank of England independence, cutting debt, fiscal discipline and the New Deal this Labour government has shown the strength to take the tough long-term decisions, that inflation is low, interest rates are low, growth has been sustained in every year, and we are closer than ever to the goal which drives us forward: the goal of full employment for our generation.
Labour, the natural party for economic strength in our country today.”
460. Especially if it is a 2010 election! :smile as the VAT will go back on it!
I am sorry to rain on the Labour parade but they are knackered - they have missed the chance!
462. Should’ve given the link: http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2008/12/asleep-at-the-wheel/
441: Oracle, most of us work and socialise with people a bit like ourselves, and even if they think differently they tend to go with the flow (would you want a friend who constantly disagreed with you on everything?), so it’s dangerous to extrapolate. I socialise with lots of idealists in their 50s - they mostly think Gordon is the best PM for decades (they thought Tony was the ambassador to the Conservative vote and went a bit native at times) and think it incredible that anyone who remembers Thatcher could vote Tory. That’s not typical either.
But among the less political public the ‘not flash, just Gordon’ theme still has an appeal in difficult times, and Tories are handicapped by the fact that they mostly can’t see it. That’s why the pinstriped laughter at the ’saving the world’ stumble backfired.
465. they mostly think Gordon is the best PM for decades.
Fibber!
I look forward to seeing him campaigning for you in Broxtowe! 
With Gordon behind you the Tories may as well pack up and go home as you have a huge personal vote! You will win by DD by-election majority! 
457. ChrisA - Interesting. Doubtless it’ll appear in dressed-to-the-nines form in some “top” academic Political Science journal like ‘British Jnl. of Political Science’ (who once refereed a paper of mine most unfairly … luckily it got published in an equally prestigious journal). One aspect of this is that petrol prices have an unequal effect re. inner/outer suburbs/rural areas. I certainly hope for cheap petrol next summer as I think it’ll be domestic holidays for me.
465. Personally Nick I think:
Nothing to fear but Gordon himself!
No further news today apparently on Labour’s supposed booking of prime poster sites for January.
This story sounds like a red herring. My understanding, anyway, is that such block bookings of sites are often arranged under an option arrangement, whereby the “advertiser” can abort at relatively low cost.
Poll rigging is the necessary forerunner to ballot rigging. Otherwise the ballot rigging would be obvious.
Is the Independent following the Tory “Broken Britain” line?
A life claimed by nihilistic violence and malign neglect
The killing of Rhys Jones points to social breakdown in parts of Britain
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-a-life-claimed-by-nihilistic-violence-and-malign-neglect-1192726.html
I hear Brown has managed to manufacture something in the UK recently!
Brown will go to the unvailing of the product in January! He will proudly put the Made In Britain label on the product:
RECESSION - made in britain!
Always read the smale print!:smile:
465. Don’t get carried away, Palmer.
You’re still behind. Indeed your vote dropped in this poll. You’re still leading us into a gruesome recession made worse by your idiotic policies.
You are also facing insuperable demands for an inquiry into the illegal war you started, with your lies, which killed a million people; and you are still led by a dwarvish gargoyle of a man, regarded by his own party as a demented fool.
And this is still the most disgraceful government in modern British history, in which you have played your own small, squalid, pointless little role, like a kind of careerist housefly hopefully buzzing around an enormous cowpat of lies.
All these things remain true.
Eventually, these epicene fools in the Tory party will stop being dazzled by Mandelson, and they will come to their senses, and they will land a punch.
465: ‘…they mostly think Gordon is the best PM for decades’
Jesus Nick. When what composes the raft of Brownian political triumphs that your friends look to when making this assessment? The VAT cut, the fact that he’s not as behind the Tories as he was a few months ago? In all honesty, partisanship aside, I’d say the juries still out on that one.
465.”they mostly think Gordon is the best PM for decades (they thought Tony was the ambassador to the Conservative vote and went a bit native at times) and think it incredible that anyone who remembers Thatcher could vote Tory. That’s not typical either.”
I have a good friend who decided to do an open university course a few years ago on politics and economics. We had a very good natured debate during that period. He was a great fan of Gordon Brown, and very surprised that I was not. He listed his achievements, and I pointed out the serious mistakes he was making. I also predicted that his legacy as a Chancellor would be one of the worst in living memory, and that he would make a lousy PM if Blair was replaced by him.
Last week, my friend phoned me and simple said, you were right!
We had our wee chat back around 2003/4 by the way.
473. “You’re still behind. Indeed your vote dropped in this poll.”
I’ve got no brief to defend Labour, Sean, but surely you have to concede the only meaningful comparison is with the last ICM poll - and on that basis Labour are up 3.
Will Gordon quell election speculation?
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/themole,,once-again-its-up-to-gordon-to-quell-the-early-election-speculation,63363
477. No
If this poll really is showing that people think Brown is more honest than Cameron, then something has gone horribly wrong, either with the poll or the Conservative campaign. Brown makes Blair look positively Vulcan.
479.Just think pyramids.
479. There are two people in that equation - if the voters think Brown is more honest than Cameron, that says as much about Cameron as it does about Brown.
re 467 and interestingly there’s not much of a correlation between the RPI change in mortgage/rent costs and the Tory lead, and if anything it’s the wrong way.
And amid all the talk of big spending and government on your side, articles in 2 prominent left of centre papers damning big government and bureaucracy
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-malfunctioning-government-1192727.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/17/whitehall-bureaucracy-labour-government
483. Although the one in the Guardian is written by their token right-winger.
476. No. I don’t agree with that. I think we should be cautious comparing pollster with pollster, but not rule it out completely - especially when the companies seem to be agreeing so notably.
I think it is significant a number of pollsters have now recorded the Tories under 40. However I am also getting the impression that Labour are approaching a ceiling. Somewhere around 35% maybe.
As we all know, the problem for the Tories is that if Labour get 35% and the Tories get something similar, in an election, Labour will win.
I believe that’s what Labour are aiming for. To peel off just enough Tory voters, by frightening them with talk of Depression, sufficient to leave the parties neck and neck. Then Labour will strike, and win, due to the perversities of FPTP.
Or so they hope.
480.
Don’t get it. (sorry for being thick)
481.
Perhaps, but has Cameron being caught out on major untruths before? I know his opponents have tried to portray him as a snake oil salesman in the past, but that is bit of innuendo juxtaposed against Brown getting his hands caught in the cookie jar many times. As I said, either that question does not represent public opinion or the Mandelson machine is even better than I realised.
482. That’s surprising ChrisA - but this wine I’m glugging is loosening my concentration. Perhaps you’ll develop this sometime on a daytime thread!
Oh come on Nick, you’d have laughed if you were sat on the other side of the house! I don’t think a 30 second glimpse of Commons laughter really sways people, they have more serious things to contend with. Gordon can do no wrong in the media at the moment, that’s feeding through into the polls and will probably change when they inevitably gett bored and move on.
I think reaching the dizzy heights of 33% in the polls has got you all excited!
More seriously, what’s clear is that Labours strategy is all short term, whilst the Conservatives are thinking long term. They might have to come in and pick up the pieces. Short term strategy might swing the polls now but by the end of 2009 with the economy likely to stll be contracting, unemployment rising whilst other nations recover the public will be rightly asking Gordon “why didn’t the fiscal stimulus work? You wasted our money.”
I’m in no doubt Cameron has the right messages and policies eg the national loans guarantee scheme, being welcomed by business chiefs, they just need to be sung more from the roof tops. It may be that his message is not resonating because the recession has yet to take full effect and Labours short-termism hasn’t registered but either way, he cannot be complacent.
re 487 I was thinking along those lines asking my friendly statistical colleague for some multiple regression tips. But there again I do have to work
I think Portillo got it right on This Week. Cameron’s policy may be correct, but it just isn’t sexy enough to go up against Gordon’s “We’ll do anything and everything” rhetoric. Correct policy and election winning policy aren’t always the same.
Have we at all factored in a Christmas effect into the polls? In either direction?
486.”Don’t get it. (sorry for being thick)”
Josh, Browns economic strategy is like one great pyramid scheme/scam, at the moment everyone assumes that they will make money out of it.
488.”I think reaching the dizzy heights of 33% in the polls has got you all excited!”
I am still amazed at the way everyone concentrates on the Tory vote share, while Labour still languish in that core vote box. Back in the days we Tories were there, that was always the only story focussed on here too.
491.
Ok I see. The big question is will they get rumbled. So far, they’ve been very good at passing the buck onto anyone and everyone. Even if the country is sent to hell in a hand basket by Scorched Earth, will they be able to successfully blame it on America still?
490. That’s fine and dandy if Brown was going to have an election now but he is not. Febuary is the earliest concievable date and i do not see it! Assuming things go as bad as they are likely too, Cameron will have been right to oppose it. If Brown somehow managed to win an election, he would have to clear up his own mess 9I don’t see that happening). The Tories are doing the country a real favour, they are giving them a choice.
Guardian Editorial - Election fever
“Just over a year ago the prime minister cancelled a general election after the Conservatives reached 38% in a Guardian/ICM poll. Today David Cameron’s party is also on 38% in a Guardian poll, but no one is talking of Tory success. The difference, of course, is that then the opposition was on the way up, and now it seems to be on the way down. Political momentum is with Labour, and the Tory lead has been cut from 15 points to five in a month. No wonder there is chatter about an election next year, perhaps as soon as February.
This context is important, and there are other reasons, beyond the polls, to think that an election soon might make sense. But the raw numbers matter very much too. Labour MPs lured into thinking that the Tory resurgence has been ended could be in for a shock when they find that their party is actually still well behind. Today’s poll shows that Labour has climbed out of the abyss, up eight points on its midsummer low. This is significant. But it does not, in itself, mean the party is now on course to win a general election in the next few months. Mr Cameron, who has just enjoyed his party’s most successful year in the polls for more than a decade, has a five-point lead. That would secure him a swag of marginals, even allowing for Labour’s advantage, which means the party could come second in terms of votes, but first in seats.
So today’s poll is tantalising, but not definitive, in that it reflects the anxious mood of the times. There are contradictions, too: Mr Cameron is seen to have the most potential as prime minister, but Mr Brown is the strongest leader on the economy. Yet only a month ago the Guardian/ICM series put the Conservatives on 45%, which was as high as they have ever climbed. This is uncertain terrain on which to build a fourth-term Labour government. Opposition parties would claim that the election had been called in a hurry, before the recession had really begun to bite, and before the inability of the government to ease the pain had become clear. If Mr Brown thinks that a terrible 2009 will be followed by a still more ghastly 2010 then he might be right to go to the country - but it might be the act of a commander choosing to suffer a containable wound while he can.
Labour’s strategy will be to do everything it can to taint the opposition. It is trying to paint David Cameron as a selfish, irresponsible lightweight, just as the Tories frightened Britain away from Neil Kinnock in 1992. Mr Brown may manage to do the same in return, and the Labour fightback is under way. This latest poll is bad news for the Tories. But on today’s figures a spring election remains a gamble too far for Mr Brown.”
492. ChristinaD: I am still amazed at the way everyone concentrates on the Tory vote share, while Labour still languish in that core vote box. Back in the days we Tories were there, that was always the only story focussed on here too.
That’s because if both parties just get their core vote, Labour win.
496.I know the thinking behind it LS, but the Tories are not in their core box, just simple below 40% in a few polls right now. And at this kind of poll figure, Labour will not win a majority, and remember that is what Brown needs.
I don’t think he has either the charactor or the economic back drop to cope with that kind of polling figure when it comes to deciding an early election. Remember, Scotland last year.
497. “And at this kind of poll figure, Labour will not win a majority, and remember that is what Brown needs.”
Why? If Labour are the largest single party in a hung parliament, I struggle to see any scenario that doesn’t involve Labour staying in office. How would the second-placed Conservatives dislodge him? Concede the principle of PR to entice the Lib Dems into a coalition? Improbable.
498.Red Meteor, its quite simple, with the recession we have looming I guarantee another GE within a year. I think that the government’s last PBR was the last layer of a huge economic pyramid scam. It will be unsustainable over about the next 12 months.
And this Labour government will not survive during this period, if as I expect, the majority of seats held involve those Usual suspects that were never a big problem when Labour’s majorities were big….
That was the biggest handicap that Major suffered after 92′.
A party that has lost its majority is not a party that should be supported.
Overdue for bed, but to reply to robusticus and others - what many Labour people like about Brown is his delivery over 10 years of our basic wish-list - excellent funding producing (in our opinion) markedly improved public services, support for the working poor, and rising overseas aid. That sums up maybe 70% of what we’re in politics for. A stable economy until the recent global hurricane on top of that, and an agreeable lack of glitz to round it off.
As I said, it’s not typical of the general public - I was giving it as the counterexample to Oracle’s friends, all of whom apparently think GB is terrible. The point is that it’s easy to think that everyone thinks like the people you socialise with, and one of the virtues of pb.com is that it reminds us all that there are others out there, strange and alien though they might seem.
499. The minority Labour government of the late 1970s held on for far, far longer than anyone expected it to, and that was also against the backdrop of somewhat less-than-benign economic circumstances. I’m just guessing, but I bet most Labour supporters would bite your hand off if you offered them Labour emerging with 310 seats in a spring election next year.
500&501.I have been carrying out a bit of a voxpops over the last week with everyone I meet. And the response a man to a women has been identical.
Simple question, word on the street is that Brown will call an election by the end of January, with a date for the polls in February. Nothing else - no view or reason why given.
And the over whelming reaction - utter disbelieve that he would chose to do so at that time. Add in the second question - what would you think if he did so? Again, the reaction was overwhelming that the recession would be very bad.
502.And the MP’s who would not be there after that GE, well, they would be those nice always toe the line MP’s like NickP……
504. I think there were quite a few left-wing Labour rebels in the late 1970s, Christina - perhaps more than there would be this time round. In fact, the Wilson/Callaghan government suffered defeat after defeat, some on quite significant issues, but still managed to sustain itself in office for very nearly a full term, because it kept winning confidence votes. That’s all you need to do.
505.Red Meteor, think of Michael Foot and 18 years of Conservative government.
505 - What you describe isn’t a government it’s a travesty of one. Not exactly what we need at the moment.
Someone mentioned a story on Conhom about Cameron warning his troops of February GE, cannot find it, any links?
506. That’s a failure of logic, Christina. The fact that event A follows on from event B does not establish that A is caused by B. There are any number of possible reasons why the Labour government may have lost the 1979 election, and I suspect its minority status in parliament does not rank highly among them. And as for the Conservatives then remaining in power for eighteen years, that was largely down to the SDP split in 1981. I’m not sure how that event can be attributed to parliamentary arithmetic that had ceased to apply two years earlier.
In any case, all this history may well never have happened if James Callaghan had been canny enough to call an election in autumn 1978, as everyone expected him to.
511.Red Meteor, you make me laugh, you really do.
“506. That’s a failure of logic, Christina.”
I am a women for gods sake! Logic does not come into it. But practical common sense does, and boy have I studied both the last Tory government and the present incumbent in No10. Personally, I backed my instincts on my personal financ£s as long ago as 2003/4. And my other half is quite happy as a result!
Utterly baffling post, Christina, but there seems to be good news for you and your family in there somewhere, in which case I’m delighted for you.
513.Quite simple Red Meteor, I followed my instincts instead of the media and the New Labour spin. And as a result, I keep making savings in the right places. Take the Oil prices this year, I knew they would have to fall, so instead of filling the Oil tank to full this year like previously, I have kept going for a half tank on a shorter period. That is good Scots housekeeping.
511.”In any case, all this history may well never have happened if James Callaghan had been canny enough to call an election in autumn 1978, as everyone expected him to.”
I genuinely think that idea is the biggest fallacy of all. MrsT didn’t just win because of the Winter of discontent, she won because people were sick of the British economy’s poor condition and the domination of the Unions etc governing their lives.
I was at the time taking a very new course in the Scottish curriculum, Modern Studies. For a political anorak like me, it was a real pleasure and much enjoyed. Britain was well and truly broken before the that GE, and the public knew it.
515. I think I’m right in saying there were polls putting Labour slightly ahead in autumn 1978. And it’s also worth remembering that the Tories had a massive opinion poll lead going into the 1979 campaign, but with Callaghan’s personal appeal that was whittled down to just seven points by polling day. So there’s every reason to think an autumn 1978 poll would have been - at the very least - up for grabs for Labour.
I too have a Modern Studies Higher. I never thought I’d have such a clear opportunity to mention that on this board, but these exchanges do have a habit of meandering…
The government is just bribing people with their own money, and wonderfully making them able borrow their own taxed income back with interest! what a splendid plan, let’s all vote Labour.
People who vote Labour will do so because they are too stupid to see the true reality of what this Mafia and criminal-backed, thieving government is doing to them.
Continuing to shaft them every way it can.
Hopefully people will wake up to these crimes, but i wouldnt bet on it. As long as they can buy cheap tat at 50% off and be distracted by bread and circuses, most will be happy to ignore these criminal acts perpetrated on them by Labour until they or a member of their family lose their jobs.
Labour may as well win the next election frankly in some ways i hope they do , and i bet many Tories think the same. Let them win it.
Have the wreckage. Make it worse. Then go to hell forever.