Was Gord’s PMQ “blunder” what he really believes?
December 11th, 2008
Will he ever live the phrase down?
There’s lots of material for the parliamentary sketch-writers this morning after Gordon Brown PMQ response to David Cameron is which he said “We not only saved the world..”
Typical is Quentin Letts in the Mail: “..Saved the world’, eh? The hubris! It is one thing for Downing Street spin meisters to spout such nonsense but when a Prime Minister starts to believe his own propaganda we’re in trouble..In those moments immediately after the prang it was hard to know where to look. Harriet Harman, sitting at Mr Brown’s right, did formidably well not to join the general hilarity. How Hattie didn’t draw blood from her lower lip, I’ll never know. “
But could Gordon have been saying what he actually believed? It certainly was a mistake to use the phrase at PMQs but was what we heard yesterday the PM’s personal view of his role? That’s what the normally “Brown-friendly” The Mole suggests in the First Post news magazine.
He writes: “..It may have been a blunder - allowing the Tories to do a passable imitation of the Muppets, as they fell about laughing while poor old Gordon looked non-plussed and then red-faced - but those close to Gordon say it is what he privately believes…Word inside the Cabinet is that he is “on a high” having found a subject with which he is comfortable. The mood is said to be good, although he is as intense as ever. “He’s still pretty driven,” one Cabinet minister told the Mole.”
Perhaps it doesn’t matter whether he thinks it or not - the point is that it rang true and fitted the perceptions that many have of Brown.
Alas we live in the YouTube age, the scene was recorded and videoed, and whatever the PM intended he’s going to be lumbered with it for months or even years to come. It’s a bit like the “Crisis - What Crisis?” phrase that was wrongly attributed to Jim Callaghan in the run-up to the 1979 general election. He didn’t even say it yet he found it almost impossible to shake it off.
Is there going to be any long-term political impact? The answer is almost certainly yes. This is a gift to the opposition parties who will raise it time and time again whenever bad economic news comes up. And as for Rory Bremner……….!!!
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Was Gord’s “blunder” what he really believes?
Yes, thanks to sycophants continually telling him (and all of us) it’s the case.
On a side note, I think just about every MP in the house needs to be taken aside before PMQs, slapped and told to stop being silly. The Tories overlong laughter, and the constand jeering whenever Clegg stands up (usually over the top of him joining in offering condolences to a dead soldier’s family).
The amount of noise and childish antics has gotten ridiculous recently.
Brown has made a pact with Europe that he will push the UK into the Euro. In return he has been promised massive political support. The spin is clear. Brown is an economic Churchill who is bravely saving the world. The media carry the story round the globe. Opinion polls are manipulated to make it appear his popularity is rising. The whole machinery of media distortion is being thrown into one final push to attempt to land Britain into the Euro, and close the door on British independence.
It’s a shame that good sites like this cannot see what is going on, but as they say, bullshit baffles brains.
3. And paranoia gets one sectioned.
3
There was a good piece in the Telegraph, that suggests the Eurozone won’t survive the current recession.
” In the end, a currency union is no stronger than the political will of the constituent states.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2008/12/10/greek_fighting_the_eurozones_weakest_link_starts_to_crack
3. The Germans apparently weren’t notified…
5. I don’t see it going. There’s an outside chance of the likes of Greece dropping out but I don’t think most of the Eurozone will try currency hopping right now.
6 - the Conservatives’ German brothers and sisters are sticking it to the Saviour - how did they get so off message?
I see that the other saviour of the Universe now doesn’t mind being referred to with his middle name. Yet, not two months ago I, and I bet others, were being howled down by the angry massed ranks of the left for even bringing this topic up. Why is it ok now?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/dec/11/obama-white-house-barackobama
7
But if the Eurozone ceases to aspire to cover all EU members, then it does it mark the beginning of the EU unravelling?
test
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=50243864320&ref=nf
We believe in Gord, the Saviour of the world!
Crikey, the Germans are p***ed off. No two ways about it.
Gordon Brown i saved the world. Yes Mr Brown, course you did. Time for yer tea, love. Nurse! One can imagine Brown dribbling in any old folks home boring the other residents about how he saved the world….
13
Will Gordo be appearing on “You’ve been framed”?
Strangely, 10 days in the US - and not one American has asked me to thank Gordon Brown for saving the planet.
In fact, not one mention of the Saviour. How ungrateful they are….
13. Very, mainly because of that conference last week I’m guessing. Brown has made two bodges in a week, the biggest one being not inviting the German’s to that conference. He has now made a big enemy, something the tories will be exploiting ruthlessly. The mess up at PMQ’s will stick I feel, it was on the news and will be in the papers. At the time I thought it was minor, but I was wrong (as usual).
17 no it goes deeper than last weeks meeting, Gordon Brown was famous for arriving in Brussels going to Finance Ministers meetings, lecturing them on the greatness of the Brown recipe for economic prosperity and need for them to follow his prescriptions then leaving early, missing dinner with the rest.
Now the Brown Economy has failed he is still lecturing them and telling them to follow him.
18. George Osborne quoted in the Telegraph sums it up nicely
George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, said: “This comment from the German finance minister totally demolishes Gordon Brown’s central political charge that only the Conservatives oppose his expensive and ineffective vat measures.
Referring to Mr Brown’s Commons gaffe, Mr Osborne added: “On the day he claimed to be saving the world, the world answered back.”
Daily Mash breaks the news first:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/brown-sectioned-200812111452/
10. To an extent. It’d be a setback, but if it was somewhere like Greece where the justification is ‘they only got in by fiddling their figures’ it’s still workable.
3. I love these conspiracy theories.
Presumably you think that Gordon’s blunder yesterday was an ingenious diversionary tactic, all part of the evil plot to bring us into the Euro?
Can I please urge the Conservatives, that while fully understanding their urge to follow the surefire populist strategy of supporting the German Finance Minister, they do not ignore the other group of politicians with whom their policies resonate, the victorious Republicans of the US bible belt.
Nogbad’s Crows out in force today. Must be badly panicked…
23. So tim has Gordon saved the world?
3. I didn’t say that the EU were geniuses, or that Brown was. In fact I rather hold the opposite opinion of both. But the signs of a pact which include both the accession of Gordon to the Euro Sainthood, and the termination of Sterling are unmistakeable.
Listen to what people say. Be shocked and amazed if you like, but the words people utter are the best evidence you will ever get as to what is contained within their minds. Desperate people are not unknown to indulge in desperate plans, and to harbour delusions of grandeur while their empires collapse. Just believe what you are hearing. That’s all I ask.
26. I like you, you’re funny.
18. Plus that, I expect the non-invitation was the icing on the cake.
19. Very good quote from osborne.
25 - patently not.
I’m very worried that the poll boost Cameron received by emoting over Baby P and astutely reflecting public interest over Greengate will be continued by prolonged laughter at worldgate.
I think Gordon not only thought what he said, but that he meant to say it.
And like a lot of political ‘blunders’ this may not be seen as one at all. Never a truer word spoken in jest! The real message from this is that people will start to get the message that Gordon Brown is the saviour of the world’s finance! Sometimes people on here credit the public with a lot more intelligence than they actually possess
19 - “Mr Osborne added: “On the day he claimed to be saving the world, the world answered back.””
The world being Germany.
Great retro imagery there George.
I’m not sure if being a ‘Draperbot’ means being a robot of Draper or whether it refers to the part of Draper that is supposed to be relaying his instructions. Despite risking being thought one I have to say……
…..How many of those watching the Tory reaction to yesterday’s slip of the tongue must have felt we’d slipped into a scene from ‘Lord of the Flies’ and felt pretty depressed at the possibility that one day this could be our government?
I did.
30. Brown has been claiming the tories are isolated and only they don’t advocate massive spending using borrowing. In fact that’s not true, which he knew already. Germany didn’t and have now become annoyed at the other european countries constantly begging them for money.
31. The tories could have sat their completely sober and somber and you would have called them boring, your natural dislike of anything the tories do kinda clouds your judgement.
30
Good try Tim.
Why doesn’t Gord get the man who said he “invented to internet” - Al Gore - to vouch for him?
30. Germany doesn’t want to be saved by Brownonomics, but Germany is content for Sterling to be eliminated. Why should Britain escape the coming eurocatastrophe?
The amount that European banks have lent to insolvent third world countries has yet to come to light. 80% of doubtful third world loans are European apparently, with France, Italy, Spain and Austrian banks to the fore. Another $1 trillion of losses to hide in the euro accounts.
33- there must be a little part of you that wishes Gordons gaffe could be replayed without the image of opposition as a braying student rugby club being left in the public mind.
19. The economics of it is all very well, and as it happens, I agree with the Germans on this one, but the point which a lot of people seem to be missing is the political one.
When Gordon Brown wins arguments and elections, it is because he uses overwhelming force.
His case regarding the bailout is not that it is the right thing to do because of Keynesian deficit-financing/reflating theory, providing and protecting jobs; it is because lots of people agree with him. Whether or not he is right is beside the point. In The Emperor’s New Clothes, he would have been arguing that “no-one believes the little child’s contention; he is in a minority of one; the public overwhelmingly support the new clothing policy” - irrespective of the evidence.
We’ve seen this behaviour again and again. He has enormous difficulty entering any contest where he’s not almost assured of a win. He cannot do vulnerability. Perhaps that’s why he couldn’t laugh at his little blunder yesterday in the way Blair or Major would have. He might well hate the comparison but he’s far closer in personality to late Thatcher in that respect. It’s probably why he didn’t invite the Germans to the summit: he’s not interested in developing an international agreement as that might involve compomise and negotiation; he wanted backing for his own policy.
35 - Gore didn’t claim that.
http://www.snopes.com/quotes/internet.asp
37. Don’t imagine Labour would be any different if Cameron had dropped a similar clanger. It’s an aspect of parliament I don’t like and which as you rightly point out, does little for its reputation with the public. It’s not a party thing though - all sides should grow up in that respect.
Of course, one reason why the Tory MPs went on that long is because they know it winds Brown up to be laughed at. Doesn’t excuse it though.
31. No-one could mistake your idiosyncratic commentary for that of a Draperbot, Roger.
40 - true.
But there,s an extra problem that the Tories have, in that their Mps are more obviously unrepresentative of the electorate.
5.There were a couple of dire warnings about the Euro being able to stay the course right at the start of this economic crisis, but not read anything about this for the last couple of months.
8.Millsy, not just the Conservatives in Germany, even the Socialists are not impressed.
18.Ted, even back during the period where the UK media were hailing Brown as the man leading the world on the economy and the Banking Bail out, there were murmurings of dissent from within Europe about his role being somewhat over hyped by the media here.
SAVE the world? Surely Gordon wants to SPEND the world?
He still looks fractionally more like Mick McGahey than Bob Geldorf!
I note Tapestry is the only one to quote and mention the economic facts. The euro is in trouble, but not as much as the pound which may shorlty hit parity with both the euro and the dollar. When this happens it is not hard to see the politicos look for a desperate answer.
Well, I see Tedious Idiotic Man is back being tedious and idiotic, which is a good sign that I should go to bed.
If Brown is saving the world, I’m leaving it.
Con Home is reminding us that some Tory loons think “we need elected police chiefs”
No wonder fascists aren’t joining the BNP these days.
Iain Dale on Gordon Tells a Whopping Great ‘Brownie’
[45] And the pound may shortly hit par with the Zimbabwean dollar. I may vote Tory at the General Election.
“May” means nothing.
On the list of things for Labour to worry about, this dooesn’t even register. People who like Brown will be irritated by the Tory hilarity; people who dislike him will react like Mike; most others will think oh, stupid Parliamentary games. It’s like the ’savers’ issue which Mike identified last week as terribly bad for Labour - it was splashed all over the press two days before the Populus poll.
We’ll win or lose according to whether at election time people think we’re doing a fair job at getting them through the crisis. At the moment, everything else is secondary.
As for the Germans, their problem as described to me by a senior German businessman last week is that the coalition is under pressure (both from voters and from the EU) to follow America, Britain and France in Keynesian deficit spending, but for both historical and ideological reasons the CDU/CSU in particular are extremely hostile to the idea. The Finance Minister’s comments are to defend their position, which is pretty isolated. It would be nice if they changed tack, but achieving global unananimity on anything is elusive. Again, I doubt if the electorate here will be especially swayed by it - what they care about is whether they think the medicine will work.
By the way, I’ll be debating Chris Huhne on ID cards at the LSE tonight.
48. Why? Elected police chiefs would surely end up being awful harridans demanding that the police do something about dog poop surely? I don’t like the idea of elected police chiefs, but I find your belief that it is a pro-fascist idea odd.
33. Roger’s credibility notwithstanding. I don’t think it’s too controversial a claim to say the HoC could do with a bit more decorum in general, as I said at 2.
53.
But where’s the fun? The general partisanship is one of the highlights of the political process for me
48. And your problem with democracy and a publically-accountable police force is?
54. There’s partisanship, and there’s blind rudeness. I take little pride in seeing those running the country shout and jeer over Clegg trying to offer condolences to the family of a fallen shoulder.
I’m not saying sit there like choirboys, if there’s a gaffe or something outrageous said etc then fine. But there is a line.
Isn’t this German Finance Minister actually a social democrat in the coalition led by Merkel? So he’s not even a conservative critic but one from the same tradition as Brown.
I quite agree that Brown’s role has been over-hyped by his spinners. They have done him no service with these references to Moses and the new Keynes. Brown is obviously a very proud man who does not like anyone to question his intellect. The gap between Brown’s posturing as the saviour of the world’s financial system and the inability to arrest the recession in Britain will make him a figure of fun. When someone’s pomposity is punctured you become a target for derision. Brown has now reached this stage.
54 You think it’s fun, David? I think it looks and sounds stupid.
I don’t like Brown but I dislike the childish antics at PMQ too. I’d like to be rid of both.
51. Germany may be isolated, but that is what Brown claimed the tories were. He kept making out that only the tories didn’t advocate his plan, which he knew wasn’t true. Germany didn’t and don’t, quite why they’d want to spend themselves into a hole just to be in step with the rest of the world I don’t know.
29. Well do you feel that Brown may have got it into his head that he saved the world?
52
The idea is that the police would do things that the local population want them to do, rather than what the current Home Secretary wants them to do.
http://www.douglascarswell.co.uk/newsshow.aspx?id=14&ref=103
Brown clearly believes that if he says something it must be true. Brown said that “no one agreed with the Tories”, yet we have the Germans saying the same thing in an almost unprecedented attack on a fellow EC member. One of his previous mates Irwin Stelzer, writes in the Telegraph, a pretty devastating piece on the culpability of Brown and Balls.
http://tinyurl.com/699vss
“But it remains an incontestable fact that the Prime Minister is pointing a finger at America to conceal his mishandling of the British economy and, lately, the futility of some portions of the stimulus package he has crafted. Gordon Brown’s search for a villain might better take him to the nearest mirror than to Washington, DC.”
and Irwin is on the payroll of Murdoch.
The German’s have got this spot on - they will be first out of recession.
Full article here
http://www.newsweek.com/id/172613
The speed at which proposals are put together under pressure that don’t even pass an economic test is breathtaking and depressing. Our British friends are now cutting their value-added tax. We have no idea how much of that stores will pass on to customers. Are you really going to buy a DVD player because it now costs £39.10 instead of £39.90? All this will do is raise Britain’s debt to a level that will take a whole generation to work off. The same people who would never touch deficit spending are now tossing around billions. The switch from decades of supply-side politics all the way to a crass Keynesianism is breathtaking. When I ask about the origins of the crisis, economists I respect tell me it is the credit-financed growth of recent years and decades. Isn’t this the same mistake everyone is suddenly making again, under all the public pressure?
59
Isn’t the Republic of Ireland following a similar course to Germany?
There is a recount in the Sark election “because there were only a few votes between candidates”. With 28 seats up for grabs, 474 voters and 57 candidates there are only 17 votes per seat, so there will only be a few votes between candidates anyway won’t there?
re 51. I hate to see you denigrate savers Nick - but hey who cares about those who’ve been careful and prepared for their retirement - a group that you give the impression of despising.
May I suggest that this is very dangerous given that Broxtowe has, I recall, the third highest proportion of grey voters in any Labour seat.
It’s only just kicking in. Savers who get monthly payments will get their first big shocks this month. Those who get annual interest won’t see the damage until their anniversary date. Those who have their savings locked up in fixed term bonds will only discover the problem when these need renewing.
You can’t change the balance between borrowers and savers without one side being hurt.
So please don’t denigrate me.
51. NickP desperately spins for the ideologically and intellectually bankrupt Lab government.
NickP - it’s not just “historical and ideological reasons”. There are sound ECONOMIC reasons too. Being a member of a party that for “historical and ideological” reasons cannot stop fiscal incontinence, you wouldnt understand that. Lots of interest groups want fiscal stimulus - hey even I would be in favour of giving £1 million to everyone with a first name beginning with K - it may not be a sensible idea for the economy as a whole. Of course, the more vocal groups like say US car companies are in favour of more government spending.
The question is whether it will bring about a recession that will be less severe in the round or whether the spending will simply leave the economy in a substantially worse position, with structural problems. The Germans, with good reason - their slowdown will not be as bad as the US and they have high automatic stabilisers*, think it is the latter.The US, with its low propensity to import and weak automatic stabilisers, might be the former, especially given the scale of the shock there. The UK with a high propensity to import, high automatic stabilisers (favouring the latter case) faces off with economic shock, which is going to be severe. It is for this reason that Labour have been so timid in their PBR spend, they are uncertain about which way to jump.
To imply that it is only history and ideology that makes the Germans support fiscal rectitude is (surprise-surprise) intellectually dishonest.
* Unemployment benefit and other social security costs associated with a slowdown.
51. Put it this way Nick - if I had to invest money at the moment would I do it in Germany or the Uk ?
38 I agree with David Herdson that Brown cannot do “international cooperation”. He has already burnt his boats with the Republicans by blaming them (America) for the economic problems. Clearly Brown ohopes that that will align well with Obama but it may not as Obama’s people may recoil from some a feckless ally.
Iain Dale calls Brown “delusional”, because Brown believes his own whopping lies.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
68. You would invest in the UK if you were a true patriot. I’m backing the UK to come out of this recession a stronger, prouder and wealthier nation.
Ironically Germany is well-placed to spend out of the recession. what they are pointing out very bluntly is that Britain is not & that Gordon is mortgaging the future for short-term political gain.
They are spot on in this case.
30 - of course it isn’t just Germany. We’ve had the IMF and the European Central Bank going against “Moses” as well.
Plus, the most important thing is the fact that some other countries have backed the idea of a fiscal stimulus, but only if there is a budget surplus to spend on it.
I think Cameron and Osborne would be all for a some sort of fiscal action if we actually had any money in the kitty.
re 66. Read a table the wrong way round. Broxtowe with a projected grey segment of 46.3% actually voting at the general election is in Labour’s top ten.
63. The key phrase in Steinbruck’s remarks was his reference to ‘crass keynesianism’. This refers to a) the hurried, back of fag pack nature of Brown’s ’stimulus’ package and b) its naive theoretical underpinnings.
What Steinbruck is - rightly - saying is that this is a package constructed on the hoof by people who like to bandy around the term ‘Keynesianism’ but have no real understanding of it. A package constructed by panicky people wanting to be seen to be ‘doing something’ rather than really thinking through what the best approach might be.
The fact that the same ignorant bigmouths then seek to wrap themselves in the mantle of ’saviours of the world’ and even lecture other countries - including those with a much better long-term record of economic policy management - about their economic policies is understandably very annoying.
I am begging to think that Tim should be renamed HyperTim
His computer must be stacked with hyperlinks provided by the Dolly Draper rebuttal unit.
58. Looks and sounds stupid, perhaps youre right. But to me those are adjectives generally representative of our politicians, so that doesn’t faze me.
Even if you don’t enjoy PMQs it is at least 30 minutes for them all to get it out of their system
—-
re 51. I just can’t understand this attack on savers. Its partly due to this lack of saving, and thus the use of extensive credit, thats got us into this mess. Also, the banks need money, and apart from going cap in hand to the government if more people put their money into the banks (if you can trust ‘em) we might get out of this crisis a little sooner.
Yes consumption would fall and retail would be hit, but i’d prefer lower business margins and higher services unemployment than the wholesale stagnation of what i call the “necessary credit” industry
Skynews leading with the Germans attacks on Brown’s economic rescue package, and really going over board with the Downing Street’s spin to undermine it. But Ed Balls comments were hilarious, and followed on from Brown’s “we saved the world” rhetoric, do both he and Brown really believe that? He was trying to argue that when the Germans get their politics sorted out etc, we will find the Conservatives are the only people in the whole of the world standing out against this plan??!!
Joey Jones making the point too that Ed Balls used to be close to Brown in the Treasury - as if that still isn’t the case right now!
“The German’s have got this spot on - they will be first out of recession.”
Obviously.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=avLvf3rCE1h4&refer=germany
70.
You must work for a repo company then
70. Great spoof
The Telegraph is starting a campaign for some tax breaks for the savers who are going to lose out from the interest rate falls.
Given their likely readership, you can’t the Telegraph for that but this Government has been fighting a long-term war against savers anyway (ISAs & CTFs being mere fig leaves trying to hide this) so I doubt they will care and most savers can’t stand this Govt anyway (at least in my little universe as someone who advises them).
66: Mike, I’m concerned to see your response to this: you encourage us to discuss the impact of developments on political trends, and it should be possible to do that without being told we’re denigrating each other or the electorate. I don’t think that most savers feel the crucial issue at the moment is that interest rates are too low, and I’m basing that on the direct feedback I get from them. You disagree, and think it will have an impact later. Maybe you’re right, maybe I’m right, but nobody’s denigrating anyone.
51 Nonsense Nick, Labour MP’s must have been mortified by such an incredible gaffe. You only needed to look at the pained expression on Harriet Harman’s face. Confidence must have taken a hell of a knock, to suggest otherwise is risible.
Global unaninimity Nick, I thought Gordo was boasting about how every other country agreed with him.
78. I see nothing in that article to disprove my point tim - did you even read it or did you just google “Germany+recession” ?
Try this one..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7747757.stm
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned of a “severe” economic downturn in the UK in 2009.
The Paris-based body has predicted that economic output in the UK will fall by 1.1% next year, more than any other major G7 country.
78. Idiot. end of.
62.”Brown clearly believes that if he says something it must be true. Brown said that “no one agreed with the Tories”, yet we have the Germans saying the same thing in an almost unprecedented attack on a fellow EC member. One of his previous mates Irwin Stelzer, writes in the Telegraph, a pretty devastating piece on the culpability of Brown and Balls.”
Brown believes if he says something often enough, it becomes the truth. But he has built his whole attack around the Tories on the basis that no one else supported their isolated view, and that they were the do nothing party.
Along come the Germans and blow this right out of the water, just watch the Downing Street spin operation go into overdrive today undermining the Germans.
The cheek of them hinting that the German position, is purely political because they have an election next year is beyond parody!
Brown seems to be really starting to annoy the Germans and the Americans right now.
82. I do and i resent the pound being devalued for short -term political headlines
Re 66 - Nick, I’m an IFA and with Mike on this & you are clearly not speaking with too many savers!
I guess your conversations might be with those on fixed rate deals which haven’t yet ended or with those who haven’t clocked yet what they are now receiving (which is the bulk of people). There are 100’s of a/c’s now paying less than 1%.
As people wake up to this, then you can expect to hear more… Premium Bonds are another slow burner in this area too.
82 “I don’t think that most savers feel the crucial issue at the moment is that interest rates are too low, and I’m basing that on the direct feedback I get from them”
Aaaaah the famous Broxtowe canvas returns….
This is truly ostrich head in the sand stuff. Just becuse you havent had much feedback doesn’t mean savers are seriously pissed off.
89 are’nt
65 I don’t understand this, why have a representatibe democracy when you’ve only got 474 electors? This is the perfect jurisdiction for some form of direct democracy. Why didn’t the seigneur of Sark look up the Athenian constitution?
Snowflake struggles on with the thin gruel - you have to commend her for effort though (is she Hazel Blears ?)
Much merriment in the Commons, as Gordon Brown meaning to say “the government has led the world in saving the banks” said by mistake “we saved the world…”
It’s funny, but also sweet and oldfashioned. Not many politicians go into politics these days aspiring to save the world.
http://snowflake5.blogspot.com/
“By the way, I’ll be debating Chris Huhne on ID cards at the LSE tonight.”
I hope you lose your pass on the way there and get locked out in the cold, Palmer.
86. Exactly, Brown is spinning against anyone who undermines him, labour are playing a dangerous game. They can sau what they like about the German’s, but they are in a far better situation than us. Plus their stance undermines Brown’s assertion that the tories are isolated.
82 Problem is that we’re continuously told that only a minority of people are interested in this or that. That only a minority are bothered by Greengate, falling interest rates on their savings, Gordon’s hubris, future tax rises, locking people up without trial, etc etc. But as long as there are areas where these minorities don’t overlap, then you are building a majority against Labour built of these little minorities.
Morning all, just a quick posting before I go back to making more people redundant for clients.
I am sure the 31,000 employees of Woolworths (which company survived the Great Depression) will all believe Gordon Brown is the saviour of the universe. Brown is the worst economic disaster to ever hit this country. But then it serves us right for electing a Government in 1997 of people who had mostly never done a day’s work in the real world which applies to Brown. Being an overpaid underworked university lecturer or journalist didn’t make him fit to run a tea shop let alone the 4th biggest economy in the world (well it was when he was let loose on it).
An indication of how bad things have clearly got for most is the fact 4 months ago my mortgage was £920 per month and yesterday I got notice in to say it will now be £534 and that’s before the latest 1% reduction takes place which it will because I am lucky enough to have a tracker without a floor.
Anyway guys I will see you all when there is something important to discuss and well done the German Social Democrat Finance Minister for bursting Brown’s bubble of pomposity.
I think Tim has this right. Both the Baby P kerfuffle during PMQs and Greengate had the tories on here and other blogs very excited but both had no effect on the polls, I don’t see any reason why this will be different.
Well, if we’re googling, German-readers may be intrerested in this:
http://tinyurl.com/5feq5e
- the CSU threatening to walk out of the coalition, with some support from within the CDU, if Keynesian reflationary policies aren’t adopted.
88: Scrapheap, it’s natural that people who go to their IFA will be talking about their concern about falling interest on savings and what can be done about it. But I doubt if you said to them, “Do you feel that the Bank of England ought to put up interest rates in the current situation?” then all that many will say “yes”. People with savings are concerned about current interest, but they also don’t want the economy collapsing in a heap around them.
I love this, Ball’s claims the tories are out of step with the world as Germany agrees with them, it makes the government look stupid.
52 In any case, shouldn’t it be debating ID cards with Chris Huhne. You don’t debate people, you debate topics.
83.
As a saver myself, i feel one of the biggest issues for savers is that the banks will immediately pass on the cuts to savers and kick up a fuss about lowering them for credit, and either only do so after a lot of pressure (perhaps with some sugaring of the deal) or just do not at all.
There’s one rule for one group and one rule for another, and it seems savers get screwed whatever happens, and those with loans do not benefit from the cut. The only winners are the banks.
All this means theres actually no point to the cut
102. If the banks are doing so well, maybe it’s time to start buying their shares.
99
but the economy is collapsing in a heap areound them…
94: you’re an imposter, BannedHorse - the real BannedHorse told us days ago that he was leaving the site. I think Mike should demand that you prove your equine identity.
96/98: Phil is right that sitting governments build up small groups who resent one or another decision - it’s one reason why the ‘time for a change’ mantra’ gathers force over time in the absence of other factors.
But there is a specific site problem - we tend here to overestimate the impact of most things, and as G points out we’ve had repeated recent incidents which have produced umpteen “Brown is finished!” and “This is the end for Labour!” posts. Because there are so many Brownphobes here, anything that might reflect on him is seized upon as having decisive significance. The fact that there are Brownphobes in the media (e.g. Martin Kettle) helps it along since articles can be pointed to in support, but what matters for the election is simply voting intention, and that doesn’t move that easily - either way.
Ball.s claiming that when Germany’s internal politics are sorted they will agree with Brown’s plan is incredibly arrogant and makes him a hostage to fortune. All labour are doing is severely souring relations with Germany, all to try and make themselves look good.
I don’t know if Brown really believes his own grandiose propaganda but what I am sure about is that he is a narcissistic personality disorder now unrestrained and running increasingly and dangerously out of control.
Savings? How about a trust fund invested with Halifax Financial Services - value November 2007 £24,855, value November 2008 £21,100.
Loss £3,755 or 15%. Not until the statement arrives are you conscious of just how badly things have gone over the past year. More and more savers/investors will get the message over the next few months - you’re being screwed to provide enough money to bail out the banks. Thank you.
Irish given another opportunity to return the ‘right’ verdict. Which part of No did the EU not understand?
“I think Mike should demand that you prove your equine identity.”
Will he fine me £2500 if I don’t, like your government proposes to?
5 Don’t believe all the nonsense Ambrose Evans-Pritchard constantly peddles. He has an obsessive antipathy to the eurozone and has been predicting the demise of the euro for years. Contrary to his predictions it is now at an all time high against the pound and could even achieve reserve currency status next year.
Irwin Stelzer (Murdochs right hand man) seems more than a little displeased today with his former frien Gordon…..
“Gordon Brown must blame himself, not the USA
The Prime Minister’s finger-pointing is an attempt to disguise his own culpability.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3703785/Gordon-Brown-must-blame-himself-not-the-USA.html
99. I don’t think you understand how this works, clients don’t all suddenly hit the phones to say what is happening to my interest, what should I do? Some need to be alerted, others are on the ball and wanting to take action asap.
What I’m saying is you dismiss the concerns of savers and their living standards at your peril. It’s also a bit naive to think individuals are going to say ‘for the sake of the borrowers and the nation’s greater good, I’m more than chuffed that my standard of living can be whacked’.
They tend to ask why we are seeing such volatility in interest rates when the economic boom and bust was supposed to have gone forever.
My most irate clients currently are those who locked in to 5 year fixes or longer (not arranged by me, he says quickly) earlier this year direct with their banks - as they couldn’t afford to gamble and now see this bust means they are stuck paying 6% plus on their debt whilst worrying about their jobs too.
109
The same part of No that Gordon wont allow the British people to say.
110 Banned Horse
You know perfectly well that all horses in this country have a horse passport which has to be produced for inspection on request. Please comply, or face the consequences.
111 - is that the same Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who believes the Oklahoma City Bombings were the work of the FBI.
I’m guessing there’s only one person with that name
Are the government trying very hard to annoy Germany or just being stupid? Dismissing the criticism as internal German politics and saying when they’ve sorted it out they’ll agree with the fiscal stimulus plan smacks of extreme arrogance.
Bombing was.
“You know perfectly well that all horses in this country have a horse passport which has to be produced for inspection on request. Please comply, or face the consequences.”
You should help write Labour’s next manifesto.
105 I have to agree with you there. What I’m talking about is the steady drip of bad news that slowly alienates more and more people, and adds to the negative arguments when wavering Labour voters are deciding whom to vote for at the next election. Of themselves, Greengate, the PBR, Gordon claiming to be saviour of the universe etc cannot be killer blows.
PS I hope Brian May is a Tory, he might let the Tories use *that* tune at the next election…
116. He believed it was a sting operation that went wrong, which is a long way from claiming the FBI planted the bomb. There was definitely a cover-up of something, which makes ferile ground for theories. It was Gore Vidal who heavily hinted that McVeigh was an FBI agent.
Today is the last day of voting on the Manchester Congestion Charge Referendum.
At ladbrokes we opened up 8/11 NO, Evs YES.
It’s now 1/3 NO, 9/4 YES. 92% of the money taken has been for No. We’ve seen new accounts being opened up and having maximum bets on No - most of the action has been from the North West. There has been a lot more money on this than I anticipated.
Christmas will be a lavish affair at Shadsy Towers if the punters have got this wrong.
Gordon brown on LBC; blames America in his first sentence !
121. ferTile
122. Looks like bad news for the sandal wearers…
Adrian Hamilton in the Indy has a column on how much we need Europe to act co-operatively in facing the recession and climate change. Its very pro-EU article that will annoy sceptics (I don’t agree with much of his prescriptions) but in light of the UK-German ding dong his last paragraph is interesting on who best provides leadership.
“I still doubt that Gordon Brown can lift his vision from that of domestic self-survival to one of European leadership any more than I trust that Sarkozy can outgrow the role of hyperactive child to become a statesman. But I do believe in Angela Merkel’s clear-headedness and her ability to work with others.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/adrian-hamilton/adrian-hamilton-never-has-europe-been-more-needed-1061133.html
126. Exactly, the governments comments today are clearly based on survival, the fact their obviously going to annoy the German’s even more is a side effect, albeit a clumsy and stupid one.
126. Which shows you how much europhiles live in a cloud cuckoo land of a future earth parliament on starships. Germany is the country resisting calls for pan-european packages.
Nick P - You seem to be losing the plot. Once you resort to quoting G. and tim in your defence the game is up.
Germans are to some extent pissed off with Brown and Sarkozy being good mates. The enmity between Sarkozy and Merkel is legendary, but the public falling out is only theatre.
Brown has promised Sterling will be sacrificed. The rest is window dressing. The Germans will play their part in a bit of theatre to confuse people as long as the UK is finally subdued.
129. The difference between Mr.Palmer and the Draperbots is frequently only one of style, not substance.
Morning all.
Regular readers may be aware that I’m not exactly a Brown or Labour fan. However, as I posted last night, I actually thought Brown’s mis-speak wasn’t as bad as everyone made out - I was quite disappointed when I finally got round to playing the clip. The Tory reaction contained, I suspect, a good measure of theatrical exaggeration.
However, I think people are missing the point, in political terms. This isn’t just about Brown making a gaffe yesterday. It’s about whether the media and public view of Brown will turn back to what it was last summer. Fairly or unfairly, he was then a figure of widespread ridicule. That is a big danger for Brown, and the Tories know it. They also know that Brown is absolutely hopeless in dealing with things like this, and Brown knows this too. As a result, he is likely to become even stiffer and more defensive. That will just encourage the mob - it becomes a vicious circle.
It may, as Roger indicated at 32, be an unpleasant sight. But politics is politics.
re 122. given that the betting is all one way why are you being so ungenerous on the YES price? 9/4 seems pretty mean given that 92% of your bets have been NO.
132 “It may, as Roger indicated at 32, be an unpleasant sight. But politics is politics.”
Roger doesn’t complain when it’s Brown doing the bullying, but when the tables are turned he’s whinging and quoting Lord of the Flies.
Although there’s no chance of topping the Palin lunacy, its rumoured that this woman is to have a go
http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=fran%20drescher&sourceid=navclient-ff&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1B3RNFA_enGB267GB303&um=1&sa=N&tab=wv#
by standing for the New York Senate seat.
134 voxpop - Quite so. I’ve no sympathy for the man. No-one forced him to become PM!
‘Lord of the Flies’, honestly! I wouldn’t want my wares advertised by a peddler of such knee-jerk hyperbole.
97
So what, ‘real work’ has David Cameron actually done?
The pound’s value appeals to some people apparently!
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23600167-details/London+is+now+bargain+capital/article.do
Yeah, but they can’t vote.
129. When did I become a ‘draper bot’?
I was posting on this site for ages before draper even began his campaign.
By draper bot, do you mean labour supporter?
138. It’s only a bargain for those not paid in pounds
It would seem to me that Brown ruling out joining the Euro has created a split with his new big hitter Peter Mandelson.
This could be the first of many very damaging splits - time will only tell how fractious this cabinet will be but on a major issue of substance. The currency, Mandelson and Brown are working in opposing directions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3706339/Gordon-Brown-rules-out-joining-euro-despite-sharp-fall-in-value-of-pound.html
Brown bail-out suffers a Berlin blitzkrieg
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23600162-details/Brown+bail-out+suffers+a+Berlin+blitzkrieg/article.do
How long before we see Ed Balls in a Spitfire and Lord Mandelson astride a Sherman tank ?
142. Yes - Mandelson isn’t working for Brown.
143. Noteable point in that article is the picture of a clown sitting beside a circus performer.
142
Ah! but will a similar tension exist between Dave and Ken, when Ken replaces Ozzy as shadow chancellor?
144. Maybe Brown has been bounced into this ruling out the Euro because the Germans have condemed Brown’s schemes as ineffective and expensive.
To have such a split in cabinet on an economic issue is extremley dangerous in volitile economic times.
146. You appear to have replaced the word “if” with “when” for some reason.
146. So you admit there is tension between Mandelson and Brown then?
This could be the start of an avelanche of Labour split stories, what you say in relation to Clarke is hyperthetical. I am dealing in facts!
147
I know I’m wasting my time, but if you can’t spell a word, look it up in a dictionary, or better stil don’t use it at all.
‘VOLATILE’
Whoops
still
150. ’stil’ isn’t a word you would find in a dictionary, is it?
151
It is pretty amusing though! Not so much Mandelson being joined at the hip but Mandelson shafting Brown on the Euro! :smile;
Pride comes before a fall coldie
re 138. Cameron was head of communications for Carlton TV. If you do not consider that “real work” - perhaps you might let us know what “real work” is?
52 - “We’ll win or lose according to whether at election time people think we’re doing a fair job at getting them through the crisis. At the moment, everything else is secondary.” Nick Palmer MP
I’m afraid that argument doesn’t stack up for me. Just look at 1992-7 - we had the fiasco of Black Wednesday right at the start of that session, but by 1997 the economy was fixed. In fact it was booming. Didn’t stop the electorate chucking the Tories out on their ear though.
133. Mike, we’re happy to take a bit of a chance with this one. I haven’t been able to find much in the way of evidence that would suggest NO should be as short as 1/3, although if we were just reacting to the weight of money it should be shorter still, as you say.
I’m hoping that the NO backers are relying a bit too much on anectdotal evidence and a more strident and vociferous campaign. The lower than expected turnout numbers might also give them heart.
But Glasgow East showed us that the punters with the biggest pockets and local contacts aren’t always right.
Here’s hoping.
156. Working for the Treasury and being a good Gordons Gopher until you’re made an MP then made a Minister suspisiouly quickly?
O/T England looking tidy in Chennai – Strass has a big ton not out.
Anyone know what’s a decent first innings total on this track?
Cheers.
Other phrases which politicians never lived down:
Tony Blair: “Most people who know me know that I’m a pretty straight kind of guy.”
Harold Wilson: “[Devaluation] does not mean that the pound in your pocket or in your purse or in your bank has been devalued.”
Harold Macmillan: “Most people in this country realise they’ve never had it so good.”
Neville Chamberlain: “I bring you peace in our time.”
Osborne and Cameron are multi millionaires.
They must have had proper jobs.
re 158. Well if you want to lengthen the YES price you’ll get some more money from me.
re 162. That does not follow. What is a “proper job” Tim? Define it.
52, 157 Someone was writing yesterday that because the economy was booming in 1997, the voters felt they could choose on non-economic grounds.
So the bored voters chose shiny new, authoritarian Blair rather than tired old nice but “weak, weak,weak” Major.
Nick Palmer.
I was Keynes trained, but only at A Level: perhaps that is my problem.
However, even I am having issues with the extent of this borrowing.
At the same time it seems to me that you are underestimating the reaction of the savings population.
An economy requires Savings, Investment and Spending, it looks to me as if the Government is pushing the spending line too much, well far too much.
Basing an economy on Housing is a fatal flaw and in the end the chickens come home to roost. Spending in the shops maybe okay at this time but trying to boost the housing market is simply going to create another bubble which will erupt far outside the “South Seas”. Far better, I suggest, to get the building trade switching to more needy projects such a renewing sewerage systems etc, (no jokes about being in the s… please). We need the public to pay off its debt on credit cards etc, before we can really move forward. Most people I know who are making big gains with the fall in their mortgate rate are simply looking forward to paying off their house few years earlier, they are not spending it!! It was a policy this household followed after the great rate rises in the early 90’s and the steady fall thereafter. We now reap a healthy whirlwind from that.
As for the Olympics, heaven help us, whose madcapped idea was that?
As Andrew Neil said yesterday if you have got this misplaced or wrong, then you ar “toast”.
That is my rant for the day.
160. Shh - you’ve just jinxed a wicket. England will be out for 275.
The Germans have form, it was their intransigence over refusing financial support that led to the UK being forced out of the ERM. No way would they allow the UK to join the Euro at current exchange rates, nor with the UK government forecasting that government debt for next year will be 8% of GDP when the maximum allowed under EU rules is 3%.
For why? For the same reason that they’re resisting joint EU market stimulus - they are pretty damn certain that they will be presented with the eventual bill. This blast at Gordon is not aimed at the UK alone, it’s meant to be a warning to the EU as a whole, something that ‘unity’ would not allow them to say to Brussels without causing an enormous row - Germany will not be the lender/payer of last resort for Europe, any debt you incur will on your own head. So watch it.
163. The most recnet poll has it very tight – but the ludicrous qualified majority voting system means that actually getting a YES through is nigh-on impossible - so I’d agree with Mike and say Shadsy your odds on Yes are pretty mean. Scrooge!
167. Whoops - my apologies Ghost!
George Bush I: “Read my lips. No new taxes.”
Bill Clinton: “I did not have s*xu*l relations with that woman.”
George Bush II: “Mission accomplished.”
Gabble: “There has been no boom and there wil be no bust.”
Mark Steyn: “The Iraqi insurgency will peter out by spring 2004.”
162 Brown, a large proportion of the Cabinet and a fair few Labour MP’s are most likely millionaires as well, with substantial property portfolios. Some of them even have butlers. What’s your point?
71. You are almost as delusional as Brown.
“General Cameron! Flash Gordon approaching!”
” What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?
Open fire all weapons …. ”
Flash - aah-aah - he’s a miracle !
Flash - aah-aah - king of the impossible !
He’s for ev’ry one of us
Stands for ev’ry one of us
He’ll save with a mighty hand
Ev’ry man ev’ry woman ev’ry child
With a mighty FLASH !!!
[lyrics reproduced in honour of the saviour of the world)
I bet Blunkett’s raking it in thanks to his consultancy position at one of the firms pushing for the government contract on…ID cards.
Funny coincidence, that.
172 Some of them are reported to bully their butlers.
the staggering complacency and arrogance from this government is there for all to see, partic from Nick Palmer’s postings today. It is now going beyond all sense of reality. They jumped the shark , jsut like the Tories did when in power too long, into absurdity, defending the indefensible, when the facts are there for all to see. It is just like the Tories in 95-97. Blinded by partisanship and forced to tow the party line, they look more and more ridiculous.
Watching PMQs I assumed Brown meant to say “Not only have we saved the world banking system…” but once he’d said “world” realised that he was laying it on a bit thick. The pause was long enough to cement “Not only have we saved the world” as his sentence, hence the general mirth. “Saving the banks” wasn’t verbatim what he meant to say, but was his first stab at correcting the gaffe.
So, it’s perhaps simply a bit of bad luck for him in this case, as opposed to a Freudian slip, but that’s how it goes.
Yes I think it will be very significant, over the months and years. It encapsulates beautifully a key charge against Brown, that his weird need for global grandstanding is at the expense of doing the right thing back home.
178. No Brown is nuts, he believes his own disinformation.
Time and again he says utter tripe, Labour MP’s obviously want an early retirement!
178 You mean it isn’t a Freudian slip because he realised when he said it that he’d goofed? Rubbish.
169. We are only betting on which option gets the most votes, bobajob. You don’t have to worry about whether it clears the other hurdles.
Were you tempted by our 100/1 Mandy for London Mayor?
178 You can spin away all you like, but it’s pretty obvious that ’saving the world’ was EXACTLY what Brown had in mind. The slip was letting us all know.
Zimbabwe cholera is over - Mugabe
Not one depositor actually lost any money in Britain - Brown
150. Hoist by your own petard, assume you will show less pomposity in future.
It was obviously just a slip of the tongue, but what was most striking was the cringeworthy way he tried to carry on with what he was saying, despite being utterly drowned out by the general melee.
Blair would have stopped, grinned, made a joke of it, and moved on.
181. I wonder if this C-charge referendum has any pointers for voting intentions. High turnout in outer boroughs..a bit like London earlier this year…discouraged Tory voters returning to the fold?
154 It is pretty amusing though! Not so much Mandelson being joined at the hip but Mandelson shafting Brown on the Euro!
I thought that it was Mandelson and Bliar who were joined at the hip!
Didn’t that explain Cherie’s rather garish grins?
Yet more money for NO in the Manchester vote. Our resolve has been broken, the dam has burst. So if anyone wants to back YES at 3/1, it’s there now.
1/4 NO
3/1 YES
188. Great news
52. You can always tell what has really spooked lefties by reading Nick Palmer’s posts *between the lines* - the tone of voice in these little puffs of spindrift reveals the true neuroses of Labour.
e.g. He dismisses Save-the-world-gate with plausible off-handedness, and I think he is probably right to do so. I don’t believe these things decide elections: those that hate or mock Brown will feel validated - which isn’t good for Labour - but those who support Labour do it for reasons unconnected with Brown’s unlovely persona. So it’s an irritant for Brown, and he will dislike the derision, but it’s hardly calamitous.
And it is possible a few voters will have found the Tory hooting equally risible.
What does worry Labour, and you can tell this from the strained nervousness in Palmer’s words, is the German intervention.
Because that is very damaging: it’s a torpedo aimed right at the engine room of Brown’s credibility. The whole point of his Fiscal Stimulus is that it has been copied around the world - so even if it fails to stop a deep recession (which it will), he can still say “we did what we had to do, everyone copied us, so there was no alternative”.
But now there is a stark alternative. The Germans have openly ridiculed Brown’s plans, and Brown himself. If Germany fares better than us - and the chances are, according to the OECD and the IMF, it will - then every voter will say: You were wrong, the Germans were right, get the F out of Number 10 you arrogant, blundering twonk.
That’s what’s worrying Downing Street today, I reckon. The Germans.
157 - A fair point. The difference between then and now, I would suggest, is that by 1997 Blair and New Labour were not only capitalising on a very unpopular and tired government, but they were also ganing positive votes for themselves. In other words, 1997 was not just an anti-Tory vote but also a pro-Labour one (which makes the following 11 years even more unforgiveable, I would argue, as Labour missed such a huge opportunity to make really fundamental changes to this country). I don’t think that we are close to the stage yet where the Tories are picking up positive votes. They are ahead merely because Labour is so unpopular. While that is the case, there is always hope for Brown and co.
191. And your evidence for this proposition is what, exactly?
190. Definitely, however the government is trying to use the tactics they’ve been using on the tories, by dismissing them or calling them isolated. It won’t work, if Germany has a better recession than us, which is what everyone thinks, then the government will look bad. Plus instead of making the German’s look bad, it sours the relations between us.
Robinson : “Null points from the Berlin jury”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
Does anyone know exactly why the entire German government has decided to ridicule Gordon en masse?
Are they sore at not being invited to the Barroso-Sarkozy tete-a-tete?
190 - Good point. I agree totally about the World slip.
But is it not also the case that the German government is in deep trouble and Merkel could well lose the next election? If she does, a new SPD government is actually likely to follow what Brown is doing now. Hence the hostiltiy from the CDU finance minister. He has to ridicule Brown, because to do otherwise would be to endorse the SPD’s policies.
Passed my local M&S who do currency exchange this morning, £1 buys you €1.08
@Southam Observer:
Unfortunately for you, the mere existence of the Cameron Effect seems to give lie to your claims.
193. We won’t know for about 2 years whether Germany’s recession will turn out better or worse than ours, of course.
I think the bigger risk for the Saviour is that it will be abundantly clear in the early weeks of 2009 that the economy is nosediving despite all his arrogant posturing and endless rescue plans. The avalanche of bankruptcies and redundancies will make him look more like Brian of Nazareth (minus the humour) than Jesus…
192 - That we are in a deep recession and people are feeling poorer than they have done for many years, but Labour is within spitting distance of the Tories in the polls. Admittedly that is not evidence, but it is an indicator.
[186] - The obvious interpretation is the one drawn by the punters, that the car drivers most directly affected are the one’s who have been motivated to turn out and vote no.
So, unless the next election is going to be a proxy vote on speed cameras, road pricing, fuel tax, etc, then I don’t think it has any bearing whatsoever.
Course, this analysis depends on what the result is. Could be there are lots of Tory voters who are turning out to vote for the “green” option…
198 - I do not think there is a Cameron effect. But if there is one, it is certainly not country-wide as the Blair one was back in the 1990s.
181. Fair enough - didn’t realise that.
Re: Mandy, reckon it would need to be 150/1 to be value… but… I’m still a tad tempted at your meanie price!
190 - Not wanting to set you off or anything Sean but is your world-view somewhat shaken by this news:
http://tinyurl.com/5doqet
I remember you being extremely confident that there would be no re-run of Lisbon in Ireland.
should we be singing “Ten German Bombers”?
196. But is it not also the case that the German government is in deep trouble and Merkel could well lose the next election?
Yes - compare with Brown who is storming ahead in the polls and can’t wait to give the country an opportunity to give him another 5 glorious years.
193. lol. Quite hard to “isolate” the largest, most powerful economy in the European Union.
Especially when the fierce critiques of Brown’s approach are now being echoed by other governments, pundits and business people - there is another demolition job, on Brown, in the FT today - from a couple of Poles (I think).
Likewise, Robert Peston was on the Today programme this morning saying the German Finance Minister’s remarks will “find quite a lot of sympathy amongst many British business leaders, who don’t believe the VAT cut is going to work”.
This is fast becoming a no-win situation for Gordon. If he loses his fallback position of “OK the recession is deep, but we did all we could, that’s why the world copied us” then his only hope is that his plan actually works, and we get a short recession, at worst.
A rather forlorn aspiration, I fear.
Morning all
Nothing very coherent from me this morning (no change there !). Bits of anecdotal evidence…pre-Christmas traffic into Kingston much less than past years. I thought London was quiet last night - a restaurant frequented by myself and Mrs Stodge which should be packed out with office “parties” almost deserted.
I think the big political loser of this recession is going to be David Cameron. He is going to inherit a horrible mess for which he bears next to no responsibility and the actions his Government will be forced to take to restore the economy and public finances will cause pain and break apart the very coalition that puts him into office.
Heath and Thatcher faced the similar challenge of clearing up messes left by previous Labour Governments. Both suffered severely politically - Heath did a U-Turn, started spending and ended up losing, Thatcher was rescued by the successful Falklands campaign which allowed issues of patriotism to rise above the economic mundane.
I don’t envy the tough decisions that Osborne is going to have to take. I don’t envy Cameron having to sell tax rises and spending cuts to an electorate clawing its away out of recession.
Nick Palmer- I for one greatly appreciate your comments on pb.com so don’t be put off by all the Tory Boys !They are getting a bit twitchy and looking to vent their RIGHTeous wrath on anyone to the left of Stanley Matthews.
tim is no worse than a dozen useless Tory Boys but seems to come in for twenty times the condemnation.
Keep the Red Flag flying here !
202. Countrywide? Remind me, what share of the vote did Labour poll in 1997?
[196] - “But is it not also the case that the German government is in deep trouble and Merkel could well lose the next election? If she does, a new SPD government is actually likely to follow what Brown is doing now.”
According to NickP at [99], it’s the CDU who want to adopt the “reflationary policies” and not the Socialists. Also, didn’t someone say the finance minister was from the Socialists and not the CDU?
199. That’s what I mean though, Cameron will be able to point to Germany which is weathering the storm much better while our unemployment rockets up.
196. Perhaps, however the fact that the German government is ridiculing a plan that Brown keeps insisting everyone agrees with makes who look stupid? The continued insistance that the tories are isolated this morning just doesn’t ring true on the back of such attacks.
betting wise, one lesson here is that right up until the next election the economy will trump all.
Labour managed to get over Rover going tits up during 2005. I don’t think an election can be risked when who knows what high street name will go under - or even if one of the banks will”need” to be fully nationalised.
The whole world is shaking economically and it totally drive sthe politics. Probably why Greengate etc get some airtime in Westminster becuase it is a different type of story for a change. Nonetheless, every few days all focus returns to the economic situation. Hence right now, I think 2010 election with narrow Tory win is most likely.
204. My immediate reaction to the No was that Ireland would not dare do it again - surely even the EU wouldn’t be so pigheaded and arrogant as to overrule a third and definitive No vote.
As ever, in my sweet innocence, I underestimated the sheer nastiness and duplicity of lefties, europhiles, and the Brussels elite.
If you’ve been following my posts you’ll have noticed that, quite some time ago, I came to the opposite conclusion, when I realised these europhiles really are as bad as I feared in my most shivering nightmares, and that Lisbon would indeed be re-run in Ireland.
I realised this back in the summer. As my occasional posts on this subject will show.
I am now reconciled to Lisbon’s enactment. The battle for Britain will be fought elsewhere. First we have to save the economy, anyway.
207. Precisely, germany is a massive economy, labour are treating it like they try to treat the tories, it’s a daft position and won’t work.
195- Martin- i get the feeling that the Germans probably think this is dead man walking administration with at most 18 months to run, so little risk in giving it a kicking.
I apologise for being so ill-mannered as to dive into commenting without reading the previous posts, but I just don’t have the time. Anyway…I don’t think this will harm Gordon too much, and I speak as someone who absolutely despises him.
Pretty much everyone already thinks he’s a bit weird, even those who intend to vote for him. So we have:
Weird Person In Weird Statement And Weird Reaction To Mocking Of Weird Statement Shocker.
Hm. Embarrassing, could conceivably put off a few waverers if the Tories play it right (ie, not braying with laughter, but portraying it his genuine belief that he’s saved the world, which he probably thinks he has), but otherwise, negligible long-term damage.
202. Again a startling absence of any evidence there…
196 Sorry but you are mistaken here - the German finance minister is from the SPD NOT the CDU!
The gaffe yesterday was small fry compared to the German intervention. The tories now have a reply to the labour mantra of ‘everyone agrees with us’, plus the goverment appear to not quite understand how to deal with this criticism. They’re either dismissing it or acting like it doesn’t exist.
“190 - Good point. I agree totally about the World slip.
But is it not also the case that the German government is in deep trouble and Merkel could well lose the next election? If she does, a new SPD government is actually likely to follow what Brown is doing now. Hence the hostiltiy from the CDU finance minister. He has to ridicule Brown, because to do otherwise would be to endorse the SPD’s policies.
by Southam Observer December 11th, 2008 at 11:36 am”
Justin has it right: the only problem with your otherwise interesting point is that the German Finance Minister is from the Social Democrats, not the CDU, thus rendering your entire argument laughably worthless.
Apart from that, well done.
214 - Sorry Sean, I hadnt noticed your change of opinion on this subject. As it happens I think the government would find it impossible to win a ‘yes’ vote on a re-run if they held the referendum in the next 3 months or so. Even by next October I think it will be very competitive with ‘no’ having to start off as favourite. I cant find a market for it yet though.
214. One should never underestimate the capacity of the EU to undermine democratic decision making. That is it’s whole raison d’etre, after all - as Vaclav Klaus has come to understand…
216 - They may or may not think Brown is on the way out but it certainly isn’t the reason for their annoyance. They are pretty irritated at finding themselves marginalised within Europe on this key issue after many years of leading the debate in Europe. Even if they are right, the fact is that nobody is talking to them.
AndyD @ 217.That slip by Brown was the equivalent of a typo.We have all committed them and sometimes they look felicitous and sometimes just look plain fatuous.
What happens on the internet is that when you have committed a fatuous looking typo, you acknowledge your slip ASAP and with a ‘LOL’ attatched and an ‘embarrassed face’ symbol.
The problem for Gordon Brown is that he doesn’t do ‘LOLS’ and certainly doesn’t do embarrassed faces.
Tony Blair was the master of these and poor old GB suffers by comparison.
211 - CSU is the Bavarian right of centre party that is allied to the CDU but always runs separately from them.
The CDU is the senior party in the grand coalition and I am pretty sure the finance minister is from its ranks. The SPD has foreign affairs as its most senior cabinet position, I think.
224. This is just big hairy bollocks.
There are lots of people in Europe who agree with the Germans. Some Dutch politicians have grave doubts about the Brown Bail-out, some Poles are equally nervous. Europe is split. Meanwhile more critical voices are being raised in Britain - businessmen, not politicians.
And check this out in the FT.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d581c9f0-c76a-11dd-b611-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
The Hunnish Attack is stunningly Bad News for Gordon and Labour, hence their incoherent response.
225 Spin … spin … whirr … what … a … crock … of … sh1t …
226. Give it up. Yer a f*cking idiot. He’s SPD.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_Steinbrück
Steinbruck link:
http://tinyurl.com/6os588
226 - SPD, clear as day. Wishing otherwise doesn’t make it so.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_Steinbr%C3%BCck
218 - Sorry, I did not realise that we had to back up every opinion we express on PB with hard evidence.
My opinion is that there is no Cameron effect. My opinion is that he is nowhere near as popular as Blair was in the 1990s. My opinion is that while the Blair effect helped Labour make significant inroads into Tory heartlands in 1997, Cameron does not look like, for example, delivering a huge number of seats to the Tories in the inner cities anywhere, many parts of the north and any of Scotland. This is opinion, I stress once again. I have no proof.
I see the Tory herd think this position taken by parts of the German coalition will hold.
The Ghost of Jorg Haider and the senior senator for Alabama are also supportive of Osborne.
226. What a tool.
208 Surely most new Governments inherit a mess from their predecessors - one of the reasons a change of government has taken place! It was certainly true in 1964 when Labour had to pick up the bill for Maudling’s’dash for growth’ which had led to a record balance of payments deficit - and 1974 following the Barber Boom and the 3 Day Week. Whilst it was different in 1997, it was not credible for the Tories to expect plaudits for a policy that had been forced on the Major Govt after the ignominious ejection from the ERM!
211 rather than make unsupported assertions, try checking some facts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_Steinbruck
“Peer Steinbrück (born 10 January 1947 in Hamburg) is a German SPD politician. He currently serves as Minister of Finance in the cabinet of Angela Merkel.”
232. But where is the PROOF that it is your opinion?
Yes, Brown does believe he has saved the world. The guys nuts!
Nice to see the Germans have put him in their place and the Americans are getting fed up with him blaming them for everything as well.
236. But SO’s ‘opinion’ is that Steinbruck is CDU. Who cares about reality?
233. It doesn’t need to hold. The damage is done. The Brown Saves The World Meme is an exercise in collective hysteria or mass hallucination, as we all fervently worship at the shrine of Gordox, the Sumerian Deficit God.
The spell has been broken. The curtain falls. Turns out Gordon is the sad little fat guy playing the organ behind the Wizard of Oz.
236 Sorry that was aimed at Southam Arse-erver at 226
218 But if you state something as a fact, we expect evidence to back it up.
240 - Yes Sean.
I look forward to Otis Ferry and George Osborne demonstrating against Obama’s recklessness next spring.
223. “One should never underestimate the capacity of the EU to undermine democratic decision making. That is it’s whole raison d’etre, after all … ”
Not quite. It’s its preferred modus operandi in order to achieve Ever Closer Union, which *is* its raison d’etre. The Commission and Euro-elite would be quite happy for The Project to have popular backing but aren’t overly concerned if it doesn’t.
Seant - The battle for Lisbon is not over yet. If Ireland does revote, and votes Yes, it will have to do so before a Conservative government comes to power in Britain as otherwise the UK will have withdrawn its instrument of ratification.
214. Change it (albeit not majorly) and then have a referendum is an interesting definition of ‘overrule’.
241 And I should have referenced 232 not 218. D’oh!
Neil @ 222.
Bizarrely, we differ. I am pretty sure the europhiles will get the result they want, and by a distance. The recession will sufficiently unnerve the Irish, such that Yes seems the safer option, rather than any threatened exclusion from the EU. And there will be veiled or not-so-veiled threats of this, of course.
Sceptics will have to regroup. Indeed I think British sceptics already have. We’ve realised there’s zip we can do until we get a decent Tory government into power. That’s all that matters, right now.
233 - that’s right, diminish the significance of the finance minister of the largest economy in Europe saying Brown in an economic numptie. There’s nothing else left for you Labour toadies, is there?
Very scary piece from Fraser Nelson: The True Extent of Britains Debt
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3078296/the-true-extent-of-britains-debt.thtml
The USD debts of the recently nationalised UK banks may well be difficult to digest.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2008/11/25/bankruptcy_update_britain_plus_california
Whoops.
Shows what I know about German politics, doesn’t it?
New Thread Please …. on the General Election recount in Sark !!
Sark Daily Bugle …. Breaking News ….
Cameron fails to sweep the Island …. new broom required ….
Brown fails to save Sark, let alone the world ….
Clegg only shagged half the Island females ….
Barlcay Brothers slate rubbed out ….
Special Offer on turnips extended by a week ….
Is anyone else sick of the Tories talking down the British economy? It’s not hard to imagine every bit of bad news is swiftly greeted by the sound of champagne corks popping at Tory HQ.
I’m no fan of Gordon Brown or Labour. I’m not a liberal either. But I find it gut wrenching watching the Tory elite frontbench smirking at the pain a lot of average businessman and ordinary Britons are going through at the moment.
Then their supporters act surprised when poll numbers show dwindling support among likely voters.
I could never vote for Gordon Brown’s Labour. But the way it’s going I will be abstaining in protest at the attitude of the opposition at the next election.
244 Quite a good one I’d have thought.
243. The Tories are promising a referendum rather than a straight withdrawl (and well done to them for doing so).
242 Eh? What are you trying to say ‘tim’? Please can you repost in plain English rather than gibberish.
244. My definition of overrule certainly includes the concept “keep asking the people to vote until they finally buckle, and give you the answer they want, then never ask them again”.
Seeing as that is precisely what is happening in Ireland, I think we can say the people are being overruled.
In fact, the Irish are lucky to have had a 2nd vote at all. The French and the Dutch simply ignored their No votes, and reverted to parliamentary ratification.
Please. Don’t defend the EU on this matter. We all know what Brussels is like. I have no desire to debate the issue - because there isn’t a debate to be had.
243. OK, but they realised long ago that they would never get ‘popular backing’. That’s why the organisation was set up in the way it was, and has evolved the way it was. It regards national democratic decision making as the major barrier to its goals (rightly) and is determined to neuter it.
247 - What do you think the opinion of other finance ministers in Europe is? Generally supportive of Steinbruck’s position or of Brown’s? And what do you think about where the new Obama administration line up on it?
Of course, it doesn’t make Steinbruck wrong that he’s marginalised on this, but you’re kidding yourself if you think the German government are in the mainstream here.
Anyone wanting a change from economic gloom should watch Dominic Grieve talking about the decline in knife crime on Sky News.
Then listen to him again with the knowledge that Cameron is going to put one in his back in the reshuffle.
225 Surely the point is not whether it was a typo or not, nor is it whether Brown handles it badly (though I agree this makes it worse)but that it taps into the caricature of Brown. It’s easy to believe he really believes it which is why it will be lampooned and not written off as a typo. All public figures are to a certain extent caricatures but the key thing is whether it is damaging. Maggie hitting Europeans with her handbag is a caricature that was helpful for her, David Steel being in David Owen’s pocket is not.
249. “Whoops. Shows what I know about German politics, doesn’t it?”
Leave the word “German” out of that sentence and yes, you’re on the button.
254 - He’s saying that Obama’s financial package will be much more in line with Brown’s, not Steinbruck’s. Which is undeniably true.
251 - ridiculous. What are they supposed to do? Sit there quietly while the pound tanks, the national debt spirals out of control, and Brown goes on his world tour? Saying things are bad is not talking it down - it’s facing reality and speaking the truth.
“Is anyone else sick of the Tories talking down the British economy? It’s not hard to imagine every bit of bad news is swiftly greeted by the sound of champagne corks popping at Tory HQ.”
If little Billy still persists in toddling over to the stove and attempting to grasp boiling hot cooking pots, despite repeated stern warnings, there comes a point when you have to say, “S*d it, let him bring down those boiling hot cooking pots on himself and learn his lesson that way.”
Jack W @ 250.You seem to know what’s what.Is Sark the place where men are free to beat their wives’ bottoms in public and does this view have any electoral support ?
253 - Do you honestly think we will get one?
257 - we already know that there is concern in countries like Holland and Poland. Expect views like this to become more vocal now a country like Germany has come out against Moses Brown.
258 - Quick! Change the subject!
257 James - Saying the German finance minister is marginalised on this is like the old headline “Heavy Fog in English Channel: Continent Cut Off”
246 - It really isnt that bizarre for us to differ Sean
The latest poll I saw had a fairly narrow ‘yes’ lead which, given that ‘yes’ tends to start off with a huge lead before being overhauled is not great news for Lisbon supporters (admittedly a re-run is a different proposition). Support for the government has also collapsed spectacularly as a result of the financial crisis and particularly their bungled budget; any referendum brought being pushed by this government is going to have credibility problems with voters. It’s way too early to call but I would have a ‘no’ vote as favourite for now.
Help needed
I have too obsessive an interest in both politics and maps. Therefore naturally I want a map showing the seat allocation of the last general election. I have looked on Politicos and Amazon but cannot find anything. Can anyone point me in the right direction?
251, “the Tory elite”, yeah, fancy having a niece of nobility as deputy leader! Wait a minute….
Computer’s been playing up hugely today, hence lack of comments. I first heard abotu Steinbruck’s comments on the 10 o’clock news last night. Most mirthful.
260 - Oooh, mee-ow. A catty Tory. Dontcha just love ‘em?
Had that shave yet, Derek?
268. OK, I hope you’re right - but I honestly doubt it. The EU will bully the Irish with endless threats of “exclusion” or “marginalisation” and these will carry the day, especially in the midst of a fierce downturn.
As I say I’ve *moved on*, anyway. Maybe Lisbon doesn’t seem such a big deal because we face economic apocalypse.
Talking of which, as we speak the pound is freefalling, yet again. Now down to euro 1.12. A stunning one cent drop in the last half hour.
Easily it’s all time low.
268, I hope you’re right. Not the pattern of the past though (a la Nice and other treaties for other nations).
269 - A map
http://www.qwghlm.co.uk/projects/electionmap/
Sean - an economics guy on Radio 4 claimed that the pound hit a low point against the DM in 1995 and comparably we have not reached that level against the Euro.(He claimed the equivalent was 90p)
Is he right?
275 thanks for that tim –can you buy one though ?
269: Maps: Electoral calculus and BBC web sites.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/constituencies/default.stm
251. a little, mostly because it prevents any useful debate on economic issues.
if you are convinced that the sky is about to fall down and the govt. is to blame, you aren’t going to contribute much to any discussion of where the country actually is or where it should be heading.
it intuitively seems like it might be good politics - but polls seem to show the opposite.
242. Tim. No two economies face the same problems. The US has far weaker automatic stabilisers than European countries do, which means that they always enter downturns with more room for fiscally expansionary policies. The US also has far less of a propensity to import which means that their spending is always far more effective in increasing domestic demand. To pretend that there is a single answer for the diverse economies of the world is simplistic in the extreme and typical of the sloppy thinking that characterises Labour.
Interestingly Labour’s plans for spending are actually fairly timid. The actual boost to GDP next year is around 0.5%. The Tory plan for JSA would be substantially more effective in bang for buck - I would guess that for for £3 bn (0.2% GDP) they’d get 0.1% boost to GDP. Assuming that they also went for the boost to public works, the Tories would get a further 0.1%. Instead, the core of the Labour idea was to cut VAT - benefitting the rich most and making sure the boost to the economy was very low.
The odds are high that Jorg Haider would have been supportive of increased spending - he was a populist. Keynes would probably have thought it inappropriate for the UK to engage in aggressive fiscal stimulus as it was already running such a substantial deficit and as other policy instruments were still available.
276. The same point was made in the Times today, but very incoherently. The article seemed to be claiming that at one point the mark was worth MORE than the quid. Which I do not believe.
However I do seem to remember an intense period of sterling weakness in the mid-90s when the mark-pound rate was ludicrously unfavourable.
But of course it is very complex, if not impossible, to properly compare the mark with the euro, they are different currencies for different currency zones.
All we can say is that the pound has tested and sometimes bested its all-time-low against the euro for every day of the last four weeks.
This is an historic depreciation. What if it actually goes BELOW parity??!
Thanks financier-I really want one to buy though for my study
276. the pound is at an all time high against the DM now - i should know, i found 50 marks down the back of the sofa last week.
267 - But it’s not Britain cut off from the continent but Germany cut off from the continent in this case. Again, I’d reiterate it doesn’t make Steinbruck wrong but he is in, “table for one at the Western World finance ministers’ canteen” territory.
261. There is no way that Obama’s package is going to look anything like Brown’s idiocy. For a start, Obama is going to spend money on public works and new jobs creation. He isnt going to spend a tiny amount. He is going to give a tax cut to the less well off and do it by raising taxes on the better off. Brown cut taxes most on the well off. That’s what the VAT cut is.
The problem with James and other Labour posters is they know nothing about economics and it shows.
“281. All we can say is that the pound has tested and sometimes bested its all-time-low against the euro for every day of the last four weeks.”
Actually that’s a slight exaggeration. My bad. Sterling’s been falling for the last ten days to two weeks, against the euro, consistently. Prior to that there was a slight rebound (following the earlier profound fall)
Today’s graph is quite stimulating.
http://www.fxware.com/forex-currency/fx_chart.asp?f=GBP&t=EUR&d=p&l=en
I see the £ is continuing to slide and putting party views to one side this is increasingly looking like a disaster of gargantuan proportions. It is the result of the reckless actions taken by the govt and will do nothing to either ease or reverse the recession.
At some point we can only hope that some Labour MPS with a conscience stand up and are counted before the country goes completely bust.
The Germans actually have a point here and we need a govt to listen and act for the medium/long-term good of the country.
I am sticking my neck out here and leaving my backside unprotected.
It seems to me that headline writers feel free to extrapolate ANY set of figures in order to make a headline out of it.The message of the headline is invariably ‘ain’t it awful’.
Thus ‘British Pound rising’ and ‘British Pound falling’ may both be used in an alarmist context.
To get a flavour of my point….think ‘House prices’.
‘House prices rising’ was just awful whilst it suited.Now instead we have ‘House prices falling’.
My point is that the £ goes up and down and House Prices also rise and fall.For those writing the headlines,all four have to be presented as a disaster…with someone to blame.
288. or stability = good, bubble to bust = bad ?
273. The question to ask is would the Irish have got a second vote if they had voted “yes” initially.
285 ken - are you ruling out a new stimulus early next year based on public works.
The argument over the affiliation of the German Finance Minister reminds me of the late, great, Senator Moynahan:
MOYNIHAN: You’re wrong
OPPONENT: Well, I’m entitled to my own opinion, Senator
MOYNIHAN: To your own opinion, yes, but not to your own facts
Apparently in the weird short-sellers nightmare of VW/Porsche a few weeks ago, VW was briefly the most-valuable company in the world.
BTW, can we please cut out (or at least cut down) the Draper / Dollybot crap every time someone says something CCHQ don’t like? G has been posting sensible stuff, albeit from a lefty perspective, for months. He’s no more an astroturfer than David Herdson.
The fear and anger that spammers and astroturfers inspire seems silly. For every one comment that comes from Mr Draper’s team, we have twenty people accuse them of disgraceful spinning and clogging up otherwise sensibe threads. Oh, plus about 20 false alarms the a day as well.
People accusing others of mal-intent is now effectively more of a problem than actual astroturfing. Let it go.
280. Keynes would almost certainly have wanted to see all the monetary avenues explored first.
287. etc. I’ve posted on here before that I think there is a strong chance Labour will be forced to scale BACK its spending plans early in the New Year because the markets are spooked by the size of the upcoming deficits and the dubious plans for reining the deficits back in the years to come. We have edged a bit closer to that eventuality today, courtesy of our Teutonic friends…
264 URW. Sark public bottom spanking was outlawed during the Napoleinic period after Nelson lost an arm entangled in a large Island female called Blossom.
Navy rumours that the said female was a large ruminant of the milking variety have never quite be quelled !!
288. Well done URW. A correct economic analysis from a Labour poster - now let’s take it to its logical conclusion. Economic mismanagement leads to unsustainable booms and the busts that accompany them.
Brown created a bad financial regulatory system, gave a bad target to the MPC and poured fuel on the flames of demand with an incontinent fiscal policy =
Pound too high, Rising house prices.
Eventually the bubble bursts=
Pound collapses, falling house prices.
And the single unifying factor = BROWN.
Well done, you now understand why Brown was a disaster and is to blame!
281 - I remember that period of Sterling weakness very well as my Aunt in Scotland used to send me sterling cheques for birthdays etc.. and at one point sterling fell way below parity with the Irish pound (making those cheques much less valuable). My back-of-envelope calculations show that we are back in that position (probably a little worse) in relation to Ireland’s currency again (which is very bad news for my Xmas shopping bill). Of course Ireland is only a tiny part of the eurozone and it’s not an appropriate comparison but we are talking about currency weakness of about the levels seen in the 1990s. I dont see why this would or should have political implications though.
288 - You’ve missed the equally apocalyptic “House prices stagnant”
Sean - Given that sterlings record low against the dollar was in 1985 and the DM in 1995, what is it about the subsequent performance of the British economy that makes you so concerned about a falling currency now?
292 - Well said Morus, the site is getting unreadable at times. We need some betting action!
292. I agree. “Dollybot” is a boring meme and does more to suppress debate than advance it. And besides, the worst offenders, Gabble and Major Martin, have been rumbled.
If any more egregious androids come on the site, then they can be unmasked as and when. What we have here at the moment is “lefties”. I know they are horrible, and it is difficult to believe they can exist, let alone sleep - but they are important to the site. Like a kind of ugly but symbiotic fungus, that helps pb oxygenate.
Let ‘em breathe.
291. Maybe for 2010. If they wanted one for 2009, they should have done something in the PBR. Public works in the UK take far too much time. The country is crowded and planning is contentious. The government lacks the infrastructure to rush projects - which countries like Germany, Japan and France have. The Americans have a big country.
The Steinbruck interview is very interesting and gives a glimpse of what might be an emerging new left euro-scepticism or realism. Steinbruck doesn’t read like a europhile.
The “problem”, as I see it, is how Governments have responded to events and the spread of “fear” accompanying them. As I’ve said here before, I first picked up the sense of fear at Henley and it infected Governments during the stock market turbulence of October/November.
In a time of crisis, as Steinbruck says, the instinct is to do something and the political instinct is to be seen to be doing something. Brown/Darling have been rushing round “doing” things, making pledges etc and there does seem an argument that the actual impact of this activity is at best neutral.
Yet, it’s also valid to ask the alternative. There was an argument in October that the natural market mechanism of merger/acquisition should have been applied through the banking system - yes, some banks would have failed but new, more robust structures would have emerged.
224 I think they are actually irritated at Sarkozy, Brown and Barroso discussing these matters in expectation that Germany will open its wallet to pay. G20 agreement was:
“- Recognize the importance of monetary policy support, as deemed appropriate to domestic conditions.
- Use fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand to rapid effect, as appropriate, while maintaining a policy framework conducive to fiscal sustainability.”
The Germans are pointing out that the UK & by extension the EU proposal isn’t conducive to fiscal sustainability. They are not alone in taking that view nor in being unwilling to subsidise the errors of other countries.
@292:
Morus, there has been an uptick in recent new posters whose sole purpose seems to be posting government spin lines. However, I agree that the recent trend of accusation and counter-accusation is starting to get dangerously schoolyard. Let ukpaul be witchfinder general, he seems to be better at it than some of our more ‘kneejerk’ righties.
I guess it’s possible to FILTHY LEFTIE SCUM without actually being on Govt. payroll.
“MOYNIHAN: You’re wrong
OPPONENT: Well, I’m entitled to my own opinion, Senator
MOYNIHAN: To your own opinion, yes, but not to your own facts”
I’d never heard that exchange before, Morus. I think I shall be citing that a lot henceforth in my life.
289. on the same note, stability = stagnation = bad, boom to bust = bad. regulation = red tape = bad, unfettered capitalism = fat cats = bad
300 - “Let ‘em breathe”.
Your magnanimity knows no bounds, Sean!
@Stodge:
It seems to me that Brown has come down with a serious case of Politician’s Fallacy.
Ken,
judging by your patronising comments on economics you seem to think highly of your knowledge in that field.And it seems you may be right.
Perhaps after you told me last week what Tory Policy on school buses was, and turned out to be wrong, can I presume that you will show a little less arrogance when discussing areas beyond your specialism
Jack W @ 294……Just so long as Blossom wasn’t a bull,the honour of the navy remains intact.
These days with 24/7 News Media and a thriving internet,the conventional Navy view might have come under enemy fire.
Betting ? - there has been a shortening in the H1 2009 price on betfair which has allowed those with foresight to pick up 2010 at a generous 1.7
H2 is now 6/1 - better value than H1 ?
304. they still do not equal the improbable proportion of posters agreeing exactly in line with CCHQ on every issue, so the paranoia is probably misplaced as well as boring.
Why dont the Barclay twins take over the Tory party?
From the Guardian:
“Sark News also published a list of a dozen “establishment” candidates it considered would “destroy” the future of island and asked the electorate not to vote for them. But, again on the provisional result, nine out of 12 got in.
They included people like Edric Baker, whom the Barclays’ bulletin has described as a “feudal talibanist”. And Jan Guy, criticised because of a “socialist streak”.
298. A fair question. I confess - readily - that half my interest in sterling’s weakness is that every time it drops a eurocent I make about £3k. Ahem.
Also, right now, I’m more intrigued in the political ramifications at the moment than the economic ramifications, of what is - unquestionably - a steep and historic devaluation. I believe that when people realise what has happened to their spending money it will impact badly on the government. You cite sterling weakness in 95, what happened to the Tories in 97?
Long term, there may also be some negative ramifications of this weakness, to go with the acknowledged upsides (our exports are cheaper etc).
The strength of a country’s currency, for good or ill, does epitomise the confidence of worldwide investors in the country’s economy. It seems people are not very confident at all in Britain’s future, and do not want to buy British government debt.
This bodes ill.
The huge fall in sterling also augurs badly for inflation; that will be mitigated by the deflationary pressures on the world economy at the moment; nonetheless the fall puts British industry at a disadvantage. We will be buying oil, for instance, at a higher price than our European and American rivals.
So it’s complex, but fascinating, and intriguingly bad news for the government, and - like I say - today I’ve made about £3k just sitting here vaporisin’.
It’s an ill wind, &c.
304 - Yeah, there has been an uptick, although I wouldn’t include Gabble in that. He’s a long-term poster, and I think he believes it - he’s not a 9-5 astroturfer, anyway.
Essentially, we probably do have a slight infection, but the medicine of ’shock and awe rebuttal’ is causing a far more severe reaction than the mild irritation of astroturfers.
Sea Shanty Irish introduced me to Sen Moynihan. Sen Proxmire of Wisconsin is also worth looking up.
300. Oh you silver-tongued devil you.
@Morus:
I dunno if we’re gonna be doing an end-of-year roundup, but FWIW, Gabble is easily my poster of the year.
I said before, and I still believe it, the man is an engine of these comment threads. His pitch-perfect ability to wind up the gentlemen of the right into a fury of self-righteous indignation is a joy to behold.
If Shadsy is reading - any thoughts on markets as to who will replace Clinton, and Obama (and maybe Biden) in the US Senate?
313 - 298. A fair question. I confess - readily - that half my interest in sterling’s weakness is that every time it drops a eurocent I make about £3k. Ahem.
What do you do, export drugs and prostitutes?!
308. No. I am correct on school buses:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2007/apr/16/schools.uk1
Monday April 16 2007 15.30 BST The Conservative party this afternoon unveiled proposals to create a national schools bus service as part of its commitment to green transport.
I was fairly certain that this was a no brainer - if you look, you should find similar proposals from the Lib Dems and Labour.
Who said economics was my specialism? It’s just that it so obviously isnt that of most Labour posters (not to mention many Conservative and Lib Dem posters).
309 URW. It’s possible Nelson mistook Blossom for the French saucy sea going cow of Parisien repute !!
http://i153.photobucket.com/albums/s235/revmyspace2/graphics/Misc/Funny/funny_cow_dolphin.jpg
Meanwhile …. Sark recount continues …. Bob Marshall-Andrews ousted !!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/guernsey/7776773.stm
The German economy is of a quite different structure to that of the British economy and has been the strongest in the EU.
After it recovered from the problems of unification, for at least the last 8 years, it has had a vey strong positive balance of payments based upon a sound industrial export performance (compared with the UK’s ever increasingly negative one - something that Brown ignored). In Germany industry is near 30% of the GDP. Thus this strong balance of payments underpinned the Euro on the Forex.
Whilst its industries, cars, steel and chemicals are suffering at present, especially from competition from less developed economies to its east (e.g. Russia), I am sure that it will take great care to protect and support these industries so that it can quickly benefit from the upturn - when it comes.
Its key weakness is its dependence on Russia for gas and it even imports clean coal instead of using its vast reserves of brown coal (lignite). However, parts of Gemany are leading the world in the development and use of renewables (e.g. solar).
The key question is, if the recession depeens and prolongs, will Gemany lose patience and either want to break loose from the Euro or wish to cast off the weaker nations.
It would appear that to be linked to a G Brown formulated UK economy would be the last thing that Germany would desire at the moment or even in the near future, and even more would feel insulted by being given advice from Our Great Leader.
312 It could be supposed that the behaviour of the Daily Telegraph (Brownite Editor & continual denigration of Cameron by many of the political correspondents) indicates the Barclay Bros have been trying to take over the Tory Party
Ken @ 308-Is English your ’specialism ‘ ?
292. 314. Nice to see the editors confirming that Draper’s minions have indeed been infesting this site.
312. Good to see the Barclays getting one in the eye.
304. worse than the bots are the WUMs (wind up merchants) who come on specifically with posts or links designed to rile up posters - they take pleasure in waiting for the angry posts from regulars.
Topics usually include the use of Gideon, Tory policy from 1956, class warfare & “poshness” and the favourite “Bullingdon”.
Well as the economy ids doing so well and the pound is strengthening due to the great works of our Revered Leader, I have looked at my charts and decided I will grow richer by buying :
silver and gold ETFs.
as a hedge in case the pound does fall OR we get rampant inflation OR some of the $billions being pumped into the world economies leaks into precious metals.
Meanwhile here is a nasty man who thinks:
“Enough! It’s time to put an end to Gordon Brown’s ridiculous blame game. As the Prime Minister tells it, Britain’s woes started in America. Like some strain of flu, America’s problems found their way across the ocean to London, and from there to the rest of the British economy. Cheers from the Left, eager to rubbish America and to resurrect their leader’s reputation.”
And there is LOTS more:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3703785/Gordon-Brown-must-blame-himself-not-the-USA.html
Apparently Gordon is to blame for many of our woes.
Personally I do not believe it. It’s all the Americans’ fault .. and the Germans’. And David Cameron’s - for doing nothing.
Hey, congratulations to Sark on becoming the world’s newest democracy. What took them so long?
310. Ghost.. if you think 1.70 is good value for a 2010 election, shouldn’t you be taking anything over evens for a 2010 and a Tory win?
You can pick up 2.28 at the moment on that particular bet.
A month or so ago I predicted the 1£ = 1 euro. This is not because I am a great FX trader but I understand the massive changes required within the economy. The funny thing is I agree with the general strategy of Gordon Brown to push through a competitive devaluation led by low interest rates. The interesting thing is why he does not announce what he is doing.
The exsiting policy doomed Woolworths and a number of other major retailers who will be caught between high street deflation and increasing costs as many of their goods are imported. It is not unrealistic to see another 100,000 jobs at least go on the high street post Xmas. The cut in Vat will not save them.
The policy is also going to hurt our European trading partners and in particular Germany, Ireland, Holland and France. What we are likely to see is not an export boom but an import crash. We could see 100,000s of jobs shifting in the next 12 months within manufacturing as local UK suppliers pick up business based on a 25% price cut advantage.
The biggest problem for Labour is for the new strategy to work they need to be nice to the very people they have annoyed and denigrated recently. i.e. UK entrepreneurs and to be harsh to the people who are not part of the process i.e. the public sector.
328-Don’t tell them,Penny !
@ TGOHF
I’m a hardly going to criticise people from coming here and doing something from which I get so much satisfaction myself.
Again, one of the things I admire about Gabble, at least compared to the lefties of softer constitution here, is that he seems almost impossible to bait.
I like that. I like a challenge.
328. I hadn’t spotted that market - looks like a good place to invest my all green Strictly book
318. Surely as a long-term contributor to the site you have heard of the near-legendary Tom Knox, thriller-writer extraordinaire? Likewise, you must surely have got wind of his gushingly generous income from foreign publishers? So conveniently denominated in euros and dollars?
If not, I will be happy to send you a copy of his next book. Competitively priced at £6.99. i.e. about $3.
331. Gabble has a certain over the top showmanship to his posts which are entertaining and they are usually about events “FTSE up”, “crime dropping”, not “Osborne doesn’t eat gruel = evil son of satan”
325. Aren’t these basically the same people?
325 Bullingdon works.
Thats why the Bullingdon boys made the press stop using the Bullingdon photos of the Bullingdon boys on a Bullingdon night out.
330. URW .. well the odds for ONE of those two bets is wrong. My opinion is that it’s the 2010 election price, which is way underpriced if it’s 1.70.
However, I understand why it IS that low. There is someone holding the price of the H1 2009 at above 3 by by putting up 1.5k at that price. Fine by me, it just means I can fill up more at higher prices on the HI2009 option. Amazed to be matached at 3.5 today.
336
we already had that. Who exactly are you trying to kid on here?
@336:
I agree that Dave is touchy about it, though personally I suspect unnecessarily. My feeling is, that in these enlightened times, the electorate could not give a flying one about what drinking societies MPs were members of at Uni.
329. FWIW I don’t think the pound will hit parity against the euro. I think it is nearing its bottom - oo-er missus - about now.
It has already stabilised against the dollar at around 1.45-1.55. It hasn’t moved out of that bracket for a while.
It might graze something like €1.10 against the euro but probably won’t go much lower than that.
I say this cause I reckon the markets have already factored in the worst-case scenarios into their valuation of sterling: they already expect us to have the worst recession in the G7, to hit 3m unemployed, and to dip to zero or near zero interest rates. They expect this cause anyone sensible (i.e. not Gordon Brown) expects this.
So, barring something really apocalyptic - inshallah it doesn’t happen - the pound should pull out of its euro nosedive fairly soon, just as it has already stabilised against the greenback.
This Forex advice was brought to you by Tom Knox Royalty Management Inc.
As long as Eurozone interest rates are higher than UK interest rates there will be pressure on the pound.
The problem is that no-one, apart from some lucky mortgage holders, are reaping the benefits of the UK’s low interest rates because the banks are not lending money at the moment. That’s why bank lending is so crucial to all of this.
It seems to me that if the banks were lending to businesses, there would not be a huge problem with the exchange rate.
re 336. Tim - that’s enough on Bullingdon for today.
332, arrr, I be jealous of yer green book.
Actually, I’m all-green too, but for depressingly small margins. Unless Snowdon gets through, then I’ll make a bit more. Their quickstep looked somewhat ropey last night though.
I hope Chambers goes out, but think Snowdon will.
Labour loves that B********n photo more than George Bush loved Willie Horton’s mugshot in 1988.
343. Chambers is worst case for me too - currently on
TC +1
RS +3
LS +13
Thought about laying off more Snowdon but odds are rubbish (9s)
Healy going out last week was a champagne moment for my book
NB I note the results are on Saturday night this week..
Hey, they’ve got a Bullingdon photo, we’ve got a rocking horse.
WE WIN.
Global warming debunked again…
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2158072e-802a-23ad-45f0-274616db87e6
337 Penny4them.All those prices on the new market are not only mine but have been shaped by me alone.
As far as the GE-Date&Most Seats is concerned,I am God……or G-d as he prefers to be known on other websites.
G-d speaks: Everything I do is brilliant but flawed.I have a tradi-g idea and act on it.Often I am wrong.
What I did was to single-handedly create an environment where CON 2010 would be a massive favouri-e and LAB 2010 would be a huge price.
If a Hum-n Bei-g had attempted the same feat he would have come up with a more ‘rational’ Book but not the Go-d Bo-k.
Whilst we are at it,many thanks to you,Penny for suggesting it in the first place,and many thanks to Mike Smithson for giving it publicity.
@ RodCrosby:
There’s been a step-change in public opinion on environmental issues recently, and I suspect it’s all because of people like Monbiot.
When the people pushing AGW and such like are all screeching loon trots like Moonbat, and the solution is inevitably ‘destroy capitalism’, one can’t be surprised when people start drawing conclusions about hidden agendas.
The truth is, of course, the Bourgeoisie were perfectly happy to indulge in all that Mother Gaia-pleasing fluff as some kind of jolly Guardianista wheeze when things were going well.
Now that we’re in deep econoshit, voluntarily traipsing back to a pre-industrial utopia doesn’t seem like so much fun, and the envirotrots are being sent packing.
Oops, up pops PB.com’s Duke of Denialism.
(Can I be the Equine of ID cards?)
341 Fraser Nelson points to the incoherence of Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling’s policies on Bank lending.
The FSA’s note about the Liquidity Scheme explicitly warns that ‘the ability of banks to lend to parties other than the UK government might be considerably reduced’. This is because Brown is looking to tap the banks for a deal of his spending splurge - there is a lot off short term debt to be repaid and new debt to borrow.
347. Some heretical comments there, for sure, especially this one -’I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion’
As worshipping Saviour Brown is clearly the one true faith, I’m sure the person responsible will soon be forced to recant…
349. A bunch of posh kids, with Tuscan villas, closing down Stansted and ruining everyone’s cheap holiday in Lanzarote was also something of an envirotrot own goal.
Is it me or do the warmists get *more* hysterical as the data turns against them?
Cue Timothy Zebras to come online and show how ten years of global cooling is an important, nay vital part of global warming. The cooler we get the warmer we get. It all makes sense.
349 - I think you’ll find that the traditional left is actually quite suspicious of green politics. In the UK, the leaders of the green movement - Jonathan Porritt, the Prince of Wales, Lord Melchitt, Zac Goldsmith etc - are all very upper class. That’s why Cameron was so comfortable with green issues as well. As you say, the green movement harks back to an age when the lord sat in his manor and the hoi polloi toiled and did what they were told. What could be more Tory than that?
340 seanT - Forecasting currency movements is famously a mug’s game. You’re competing against large numbers of highly-paid traders glued to their Bloomberg and Reuters screens.
But I’m going to join you anyway, and make a prediction. Unlike you, I predict that Sterling will fall steadily against the Euro for some time (I’m less sure about the dollar). Basically, it looks like a one-way bet at the moment, with interest rates low here, government finances out of control, and disastrous prospects in precisely those areas like financial services which are particularly important to Britain.
I may be completely wrong, of course!
345, by the way, are you betting on any other markets?
For a while Bleakley was going to ruin my Top Female bets, but happily they’re okayish now.
Come on Chambers, go out!
Just a point on the BBC today and yet another reason why i will be joining 200,000 other people signing the pledge not to pay my Licence fee when it comes up for renewal in the new year….
I notice the BBC is today spinning that the oil price has risen slightly because of renewed hopes of a rise in demand….at a time when the first fall in demand for 25 years has just been announced, this is hardly correct - just read the FT for the considered view ….. lol they just can’t help themselves be the first to big up “the green shoots” of recovery and pass on government press releases uncritically…….
Also this morning i noticed that Hugh Pym or some economics editor was saying the £ was not likely to reach parity for quite some time(if at all) and how we needed to get things in perspective. However sadly by lunchtime news he’d managed to get down to a local tourist currency exchange office in London where £1 buys you 1.01 euro…..
Also , anyone else noticed how the government’s “non economic issue based press release for the day” is repeated verbatim on Today every morning at the moment?
This morning it was about how knife crime really isnt all that bad , with the reporter helpfully explaining we shouldn’t worry about and “get it all in perspective”. Swiftly followed by another article i think about benefits claimaints not really sponging that much really, and how “we needed to get it in perspective”.
The BBC will never get another penny off me for now and i would encourage others to withold their Licence fee too, until they raise their standards.
329: “The funny thing is I agree with the general strategy of Gordon Brown to push through a competitive devaluation led by low interest rates. The interesting thing is why he does not announce what he is doing.”
The reason is simple - he does not know what he is doing! He has adopted a piecemeal approach and has focussed on dropping interest rates to invigorate the housing market. Seemingly he had not thought about the effect on trade.
I am not sure that import substitution can happen as is there enough British industry left with the plant and skills to make those imports at the right price - even more will a cash strapped public want to buy them still and after Christmas is over? China is already feeling the pain of diminishing exports.
Brown has never put his money where his mouth is regarding supporting Uk entreprenuers - witness his responses recently regarding loan guarantee schemes.
Anyway, without liquidity, things can only get worse and it is much more difficult to climb up from the bottom of a long downward spiral than from half-way up.
I am spending even more time chasing payments, much of it from HMG and pseudo government departments - so much for Brown’s words on ensuring the HMG pays on time.
Sad to say, but I’ve seen this trajectory of trolls/paid posters on US political forums, and it’s not easy to halt. The problem is partly a lot of genuine posters aren’t aware when someone is clearly trolling, and respond with genuine emotion - which is of course the purpose of a troll, one of the internet’s oldest creatures.
For example, when you have a poster like “Major” who adopts the identity of a fictional character, he’s clearly saying he’s not posting with any seriousness. He’s here to annoy, to provoke. If you respond to him, you grant his wish. The only antidote to a troll is not to respond at all, to starve them of the attention they crave.
As to paid posters and party hacks ceaselessly trotting out a line, that’s a different matter entirely. These are not trolls, but the paranoia about them is equally as damaging to a forum.
Sorry, bit boring maybe, but I’ve been around internet forums since the early 90s, and have seen most of this before countless times. Hoping pb.com doesn’t fall victim to something so predictable.
349-Of course it was always a crock. I particularly liked the article in today’s Grauniad about people making moeny out of something called carbon offset. (Is that when you “offset” carbon into a pit? or a return to carbon paper and a new way to print, “carbon offset”) And how it so worried his oh so right-on mind. I am happy to say it was never anything that worried me. More likely I raised a smile on reading how hard nosed capitalists in their “sharp suits and limos” were making money out of the sandal wearing lentil eaters. Haha.
345. Healy going out was not a champaign moment for me.
Luckily I had got some 9-2 on Rachel Stevens and a bit on Chambers to balance the book.
355. Trouble is, the flat-cap left haven’t been in charge of the Labour Party since the 1930s, if not earlier…
355. Fair point. Yes there is a rightwing green agenda with a long history.
Hitler was, of course, an avowed greenie (blood and soil and all that). So, more surprisingly, was Himmler - indeed I’m reading a fascinating book, right now, all about Himmler’s nuttiest ambitions: to return Europe to an agrarian Teuton-run eco-sensitive “paradise”.
It’s called The Master Plan, and I recommend it to all pb connoisseurs of far right lunacy - i.e. Sean Fear.
Yertiz:
http://tinyurl.com/5c5rm8
347. I find it highly amusing they put a comment arguing that the warming is due to sun activitym and one arguing that the earth is cooling in the same article. Some lack of consistency there.
For the record I do think climate change is going on. I like being in the company of just about every major scientific organisation in the world.
348. I think you have done a very good job URW.. the prices on that market look about right and highlight the fact that if they want to have any hope of winning the next election, 2010 is a no brainer for Labour. Last time I looked the only matched bets had been at around 10/1 for a Labour 2010 win.
It’s the election date market that is, imo screwed up. But perhaps that is understandable as it is influenced to a large extent by bets that people have made over the past couple of years. They have positions that they want to protect and therefore it is in their interests to try and shape the market accordingly.
I can think of no other reason for someone putting up a lay of H1 2009 of £1.5K. If they were seriously trying to lay that amount of money, why not allow the price to go sub 2/1 and make their lays in smaller amounts? They know that it is unlikely that a lay of that size they have put up will be matched, which is why I think it has been put there to hold down the 2010 price.
As I said, I have no complaints with their strategy. It allows me to get my much smaller bets on H1 2009 at 3.5.
357 - on Strictly ? I had a bit of 1.9 on Snowdon next out earlier in the week just as a saver (now 1.6).
Also have India to win 2-0 at the cricket
@Andrew:
I think you’re worrying too much. People like and enjoy the bickering here. The white heat of a PBC flamewar can be exhilarating, especially when poked and prodded by masterful shit-stirrers like Gabs and SeanT.
The reason why some forums fall apart once the flames get started is because the forum posters are fragile little flowers.
That does not apply here. We’re all the thick-skinned vanguard of truth, justice and the Smithson way. Their word-bullets cannot harm us. Our carapaces are like a shield of velour-coated steel.
Green Party - BNP crossover.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5197862.ece
363. You realise that this is the first ever government with a majority of people who didn’t go to private or public school?
It’s a lot closer to the flat cap than most previous labour governments. Even if the labour party membership isn’t.
354: Whilst I’m not in favour of “brute force and ignorance” consumption of our resources at current rates, it is interesting to see the difference between the met office’s presentation of global average temperature data:
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/
and the same data, presented for the benefit of our children:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/education/bitesize/higher/geography/physical/atmosphere2_rev.shtml
Just goes to show - pick the cut off points on your graph with care, and you can demonstrate anything you want!
3. Germany doesn’t seem to have got the message
362, that was pretty shocking. I thought Chambers might go that week actually, or Snowdon, but Stevens and Healey were, in my mind, dead certs to get through.
367, I keep toying with the idea on betting on Snowdon to leave. Currently up a few quid for Stevens or Chambers, but up about £40 for Snowdon to win it. Was expecting much nicer odds, frankly.
@SeanT:
Sounds interesting, I’ll add it to my Amazon wishlist.
354
Ah! but yer ‘ol mate Boris has seen the light!!
BORIS Johnson relaunched himself as the green Mayor today with a pledge to make London eco-capital of the world.
In a bid to shrug off his reputation as an environmental sceptic, he said the city should lead the way in reducing carbon emissions and capitalising on the new energy economy.
He also set out plans to improve the quality of life for millions of Londoners by offering makeovers for parks and encouraging use of electric vehicles.
Mr Johnson told the Environment Agency conference the financial crisis provided an opportunity for developing green businesses. Industry could develop new technologies and create tens of thousands of jobs as it did so.
The keynote speech marks a change in direction for the Mayor who previously criticised the Kyoto treaty, poured scorn on renewable energy and denounced “eco-moralists” for spouting “mumbo-jumbo”.
So there’s hope for you yet.
@361:
“Carbon offset” and “Carbon capture” are fancy 21st century buzzwords for “planting trees”.
369 - “Green Party - BNP crossover.”
That will be, er, 2 members then.
373. Big factor is the Argie Tango this week. As the hairy midget is world champ I would think it was inconceivable that Stevens will go this week.
@ Coldstone:
Note that Boris is saying yes to reducing Carbon emissions (basically sensible whether or not AGW exists), but not suggesting we follow a Monbiot route of destroying Capitalism, and turning London into a medieval anarcho-syndicalist agrarian commune. Yet.
378, aye. last week showed two good dances is no match for one excellent dance and one average dance.
Cole’s never done Argentine Tango before, but the midweek footage looked pretty good.
Chambers looks annoyingly good at both though.
376 Martin fancy 21st century buzzwords for “planting trees”.
I fear that ‘Carbon offset’ is actually ‘taking your money and saying we will plant trees’, which is not quite the same thing.
336 Penny4them.Some really perceptive comments in your post.The salient point is that the conventional bookies still offer 13-8 a 2009 GE.
Once this bastion falls there could be a considerable adjustment in prices.
Same applies to NOM.The conventional bookies offer 3.20 NOM.As long as they are prepared to be seen to be layiong that for money,so that will impact on the ‘Overall Majority’ market.
375
“In a bid to shrug off his reputation as an environmental sceptic, [BoJo] said the city should lead the way in reducing carbon emissions and capitalising on the new energy economy.
He also set out plans to improve the quality of life for millions of Londoners by… encouraging use of electric vehicles.”
That’s great for Londoners, meanwhile the rest of us have to put up with greater pollution for generating the necessary electricity.
364
The founder of the ‘Soil Association’ was Jorian Jenks, was also a member of the British Union of Fascists, (although I don’t think he was ever much of a Fascist) along with Robert Saunders of the NFU, (who certainly was).
Because Fascists or Communists happen to believe in something which you also believe in, doesn’t make you either a Fascist or a Communist. Both creeds for instance believed in physical fitness and promoted sport, that doesn’t mean that everyone who believes in physical fitness or takes part in sport is a Fascist or a Communist.
380. Be wary of the footage - no indication of what filmed when.
381 Planting short rotation coppice and building woodburning power stations would be a great idea, problem is there’s a long time between investment and return so probably somewhere Government would have to step in to start the market off.
380 - Not a complaint at all, but I cannot help feel that it is ironic that PB.com maintains a running commentary on who will win the Reality Celebrity on Ice Superstar Entertainment Spectacular de jour, especially in light of its origins…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/08/nh-2004-the-night-that-prompted-the-creation-of-pbc/
375 - Not quite a convert - I think Boris cares about air quality rather than AGW.
@Phil C:
Possibly not, since there’s a good chance the electric vehicles will either be hybrid engines, or powered by Methanol or Hydrogen fuel cells.
In the long run, fuel cells are a far more workable solution to the electric transport problem than battery charging.
Hutton announces that the Aircraft Carriers will enter service 1-2 years late.
As a long-time observer, I’d guess this means 5 years late - if at all.
385, I think it can be said that performances could well improve markedly, but the odds on Chambers becoming pants at the dances are sadly low.
I voted Green in the local elections last year having voted for Boris for mayor.
I will never again vote for any minor Party unless it is a ‘Ban the licence fee for the BBC’ Party….in which case I will vote for them ealy and often.
384. Authoritarians of all stripes - communists, fascists, New Labour want to turn the population into serfs. Sometimes, they mask this intent by conjuring up a return to some kind of long lost ordered rural Arcadia. Sometimes, they don’t even bother to mask their intent.
382. It’s a chicken and egg thing URW. Fact is that most bookmakers tend to reflect movements on Betfair these days rather than the other way around. If I were a bookmaker I would be more than happy accepting bets at 13/8 for a 2009 election, because I know I could easily offset those bets on BF, especially with Mr Moneybags putting up a lay of £1.5k at the moment at 2/1.
Will Ladbrokes catch a cold from the Manc C-Charge? - see new thread
389: What’s the betting we’ll end up paying more per carrier than the Americans do for their nuclear powered behemoths? (which carry double the number of planes). They’re getting close even on official estimates.
393 - You are right that bookies often take their pricing cue from betfair, but very few then hedge back using betfair.
Are you sure about that,P4them ? Mr.Moneybags offers 2-1 on Jan-June ONLY.That is very different to offering 13-8 for the whole of 2009.
389 strange with all the talk about the need for Government spending in infrastructure projects to be bought forward that they delay these which don’t need planning permission, provide good employment in areas needing it, support engineering, electonics, aerospace, steel and a host other subsidiary employment and demand.
A relatively simple question from a simple soul. Mr Brown keeps telling me that all countries are following his example. Does anybody have any examples of countries which are genuinely doing this. I am sure that between the pro and anti Browns on this site we would get some semblance of the truth of what is actually happening as opposed to what the papers are being paid to tell us.
For whatever reason I suddenly remembered Peter Jay, was he not an ex-ambassador in the US? And totally coincidentally Sunny Jim’s son-in-law.
Didn’t he have a reincarnation as the economics editor of the BBC in the mid-90s where all he spouted out was doom and gloom, taking some pleasure in it. Think he was quietly dropped a few years later…About the same time as Will Hutton and his must-have for every lefty book. So much for only Tories “talking down Britain”.
Actually I suspect City-traders look at hard fundamentals not at what self-appointed economic gurus say on the BBC. Even if it is Ozzy.
395, 398
They’d never pass this script for ‘Yes, Prime Minister’.
318 - we import those amongst a lot of other things
389 - errmm , didn’t the Government pledge to bring forward capital projects?????