Why can’t Gordon do spontaneity?
December 3rd, 2008
Is this how the Tories will always trap him?
It has, as predicted, been a gripping afternoon and on balance I think that the government has lost some ground. I thought that the Speaker, Michael Martin, made the best of a very bad hand and his frank explanations of where things went wrong will have bought him some more time.
But for me the really intriguing element was the way that senior Tory figures managed to trap Gordon using what has become the tried and tested simple question trick. You put something forward that it is blindingly obvious that Brown should agree with - in this case backing Martin’s new rule about the police always needing a search warrant - and then watch as the PM tries to avoid giving an answer.
Michael Howard launched into this this and then was backed up by several senior colleagues - and all Brown did was get angrier and angrier. Martin had announced the new rule on police entry into parliament without search warrants and it would not have compromised anything to have just said yes.
It was exactly the same with the “Baby P” PMQs a few weeks ago. Cameron put forward a simple point that any reasonable person would agree with - and was something that Ed Balls announced a few hours later. In that case Brown, like this afternoon, Brown equivocated and made things worse for himself.
Just watch - the Tories will use this trick again. It unbalances Brown and makes him appear shifty.
In a general election campaign there will be times where spontaneity is required - Brown has about sixteen months to learn it.
Mike Smithson
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Think Mike sums it up well But will have Homne Sec tomorrow and Debate on martin on Monday still to come
FPT:
Tim@554. How do you think Brown “encouraged” his leaker in the 1990s, you ridiculous bowl of puke?
This is the point Tories should be ramming home: keeping it nice and simple.
Labour benefited from zillions of leaks in the 1980s and 1990s, Brown actually went on TV and gloated about it.
But when the Tories do it in return, they get arrested.
That’s the story. That’s all anyone needs to know.
They are bound to ask the HS the same question, will she stick to the agreed line?
Sean.
Perhaps you’d better wait until you know what the Tories have offered the leaker.
Meantime, Obama states the bleeding obvious
“According to tomorrow’s New Statesman, Barack Obama was unimpressed by his encounter with David Cameron earlier this year and commented: “What a lightweight!”
According to James Macintyre’s report, Cameron’s attempt to stress his pro-American and Eurosceptic credentials did not meet with Obama’s approval. According to Macintyre’s diplomatic sources, the Democratic candidate was “distinctly unimpressed” and labelled Cameron a lightweight.”
Excuse typing -just desperate to be first - not that I would want to boast about it!
4. How do you think Brown “encouraged” his leaker, you ridiculous bowl of Labour puke?
***Meanwhile Barack Obama has warned that he was unimpressed with David Cameron and called him a “lightweight”.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/dec/03/obama-cameron-lightweight
Interesting political knockabout story.
The interesting thing about the Saxby Chambliss victory in the Georgia Senate runoff yesterday isn’t so much that Chambliss won, but rather what it says about how American politics works. I have done much predicting on PB about how the pendulum will quickly swing back significantly in the direction of the GOP now that the Democrats have total control, which has been met with much skepticism here (perhaps based on your experiences in British politics). In the space of four weeks, we have seen the GOP candidate in a particular race go from winning by 3 points (50% to 47%) to winning by 15 points.
So what has changed in a month? Has Obama become significantly less popular? Has the Democratic brand gone suddenly into decline? The GOP brand surging? No, rather this is a great illustration of the strong preference in the American electorate for balance and an aversion to one-party rule. The fact that the GOP gained 12 points in a month (and far outperformed expectations based on polls) gives some material guage to what can be expected in elections to come. If the GOP can gain anything approaching 12 points across the board in the 2010 mid-term elections (or even half of that at 6 points), the GOP will be well positioned to make huge dents in Democratic congressional majorities.
This article also gives some good insight into how important it was for Democrats that Obama was on the ballot on November 4, and how much more difficult it may be to win in elections where his presidency is not at stake:
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/chambliss-win-proves-sizeable-obama-effect-2008-12-02.html
Mr Brown’s main problem is that he can never ever admit that he is wrong. He sees it as a sign of weakness to admit that anything his opponents say may have a grain of truth in them. It is this arrogance, combined with his hubris of making absurdly ambitious claims, which is his greatest weakness.
When the Speaker reprimanded the Tory benches for holding private conversations during Brown’s speech, two lady MPs just behind Brown were chatting away, giggling, for ages.
OBAMA CALLS CAMERON A “LIGHTWEIGHT”
“According to tomorrow’s New Statesman, Barack Obama was unimpressed by his encounter with David Cameron earlier this year and commented: “What a lightweight!”"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/dec/03/obama-cameron-lightweight
re 4. Tim. I think that there’s a bit of wishful thinking there. It matters not whether anything was offered. Here’s a senior MP trying to expose government failings on that most toxic of issues, immigration, and unless there was black-mail or intimidation then Green’s in the clear. In fact he’s a hero.
Women MPs - keep up.
9 Good to hear from you S&S, and good to hear about the US for a change!
Might be some betting implications there, I think.
5. If he thinks Cameron is Lightweight: I should imagine Obama thinks Gordon Brown is not fit to be a piece of dog shit on his shoe!
Tim you talk Bollocks on the Mortgage proposal, it is a bag of bollocks and will just stifle recovery. People are facing higher taxes on income through National insurance rises and 45% for high earners. If they have a deffered mortgage it will cause them to have severly constrained disposable income, indeed if they managed to get to have a positive balance at all! Yhis is an idea to shore up Brown as his government is crushed by negative headlines.
yet what is leading the news?
Oh and the New Statesman is reporting that Obama thought cameron was a light weight after their meeting earlier this year.
4. If the Tories had offered him anything then Green would have been charged. Both the Conservatives and Mr Galley himself both say that no inducements were made so unless one or other changes their story then this must be the accepted position.
The same goes for Tory claims that the HS or PM must have known about the raid beforehand. Both the police and ministers say not so we must accept this unless at some future point one or other changes their argument. There is no point flinging around accusations without any proof and both sides ought to recognise this.
Again on this ridiculous mortgage scheme - surely this will reduce demand for houses - can’t pay your mortgage ? Why downsize when you can get a 2 year holiday. A large percentage of homes on the market are repo’s - that will reduce further now there is a payment holiday.
Obama: harsh words from someone whose entire political programme appears to be, “Yes we can”. I don’t think this will do DC much harm in this country. Obama already looks older and the shine will soon wear off.
I spoke to a well-connected, well-known hack last week, who reviewed Brown’s latest book for one of the major journals (I won’t say which, so as not to betray his identity).
Given his wide acquaintance with Mister Brown, I was keen to hear the hack’s opinion of the prime minister. This is what he said.
“The man’s a c*nt.”
Quite pithy, I thought.
19. I wonder if Brown’s deffered taxation when it kicks in will qualify high earners as a significant loss of income??!!!
Mike I think you are correct.
On a debate between Brown and Cameron in an election campaign, Cameron is faster on his feet.
However this is unlikely to happen.
Nevertheless a third time government facing the current problems shouldn`t be in the game, but they at least have a shot.
Thats why I always think you underestimate Brown, I know I did being a Blair supporter.
I’m sure the Obama endorsment will be highly prized at the next election. In fact, America is so popular that I hear people want their President to comment on their politics these days. People are actually asking What Would Obama Do? It’s being considered whether to restrict the next election to the President-elect and his close advisers. Tory boys claim that the Obama endorsement is the desperate fig-leaf for a discredited economic failure to cover over his responsibility for the collapse of the economy, but they all want to hang Nelson Mandela and turf the poor onto the streets, so they’re currently a whopping -1 points behind (or -11 [or -15]).
or as Sean T put it so eloquently earlier today:
“….the whole “feel” of the Cameron Shadow Cabinet is WRONG. They do look like a bunch of smirking Harrovian sixth formers, about to throw an amusing little pleb into the wagger pagger bagger.”
9 - The GOP didn’t gain 12 points in a month. He gained 7%, and if you assume (reasonably) that includes most of the Libertarian’s 3%, that’s about 4-5%.
Early voting stats suggest that black turnout was way down on the Presidential election and that was important in a state with a significant black population (well above average at 30%).
I don’t deny it’s a better result both for Chambliss and the GOP, but I think you are reading a lot into it.
Who would have thought that the day would come when Labour supporters would attach so much importance to the opinions of US presidents. Have they not learned the lesson of Blair and Bush ?
re 17. Please find another user name. I’ve just banned someone for calling themselves “Sick of Gordon”. Names such as “I love DC” and “I hate DC” have been banned for a long time.
I disagree with our genial host on this one. (though not on the more general point about importance of political lightfootedness)
My feeling is that the Tories have overplayed the Green affair. What could have been a major scandal now feels rather like a police procedural issue - There’s no evidence of political control, oversight or direction, and so ire seems to be being turned to the Met and Jill Pay, which may (or may not) be right, but is unseemly.
As a result, one party is talking about the economy, Welfare reform and banks and the other party is talking about search warrants and MPs rights.
Leaving aside the question of whether the Tories are right, tactically I don’t think this is good for them. Earlier in the week was terrible for Labour in media terms, but now we’re talking about what matters and the Tories attacks now seem to be aimed at relatively obscure targets.
16 - Is it not te case that they will only have a deferred mortgage if their financial circumstances change. They will then have two years to get themselves back on track. My guess is that given the choice between losing their houses and having to pay more on their motgage after having a two year break, most will choose the former option and will be happy to still have a home.
24 - Obama won’t endorse anyone. He might well have made a comment privately about Cameron’s limited weight, but will never go on the record with that sort of thing.
Mike - “Here’s a senior MP trying to expose government failings on that most toxic of issues, immigration”
To be fair Mike,you don’t know what leaks he got, just what he revealed to the press.
I’m sure you’re correct on criminal charges, but how would Cameron appear if he’d taken legal advice to discover what inducements could legally be offered to a civil servant to encourage him to break his job contract.You think that would look Prime Ministerial?
If one steps and and considers the political ramifications what Brown is doing is deferring the problem of millions of house holders having mortgage payment problems until after the next election (which I suspect he is less than confident of winning). All it is, is more dithering and passing the buck onto the next Government.
It’s just another part of Gordon’s scorched earth policy
28 Is ‘I Like Mike’ allowed?
21 - Not Matthew Parris by any chance?
I dont underestimate Brown, He is capable of anything to hang onto power, absolutely anything. That’s why I loathe the man with a passion. There is no dirty trick he wouldn’t stoop to.
33 - what if it backfires on Brown and he actually wins the next election?
12 et al And at the time of this meeting - well before the actual US General Election - this was exactly the general feeling about Obama himself.
Stones and glasshouses come to mind.
32 tim, this is getting tedious, so I’ll propose a bet to you. I’ll pay you £20 if charges are brought against either Galley or Green. In return, all I ask as a stake is that you don’t post on PB.com on this same point again.
Is it a deal?
37. Then we are truly doomed - the beginning of the new dark ages in Britain. Moses Brown will continue dithering in the wilderness.
15- Good to be back, Richard, after a bit of a break. I don’t know what kind of betting market would apply to this information today, but keep it under your hat for the next time U.S. elections heat up.
33 - So you think that the government should stand by and watch people being thrown onto the street. Is that likely to be Conservative policy do you think?
31. It was sarcasm. Of course, you’re right, and I seriously doubt he is at all interested in getting involved in the next election even through advisers. This is either made up, distorted,or genuine tittle tattle inadvertently leaked which has been made into a story by a Labour mag as it fits the global problems require global solutions thing that the Labour Party wants to sell. Desperate stuff really.
36 - The Tories, of course, do not do dirty tricks.
Reposted from last thread.
One point I would make on the mortgage proposals. It applies to the 8 big banks. It seemingly does not apply to all those who have already had to go to specialist mortgage companies (those companies that were incessantly advertising on TV). Given that these account for the majority of the more hard-up families then this action would seem to do little for the poorest mortgage holders.
everyone is missing the big story.
Check out Bozza arriving at the Spectator awards. Legend!
http://tinyurl.com/6777yb
re 32. I don’t think that matters either. What he did was not a crime that the CPS will allow to go to trial. They got their fingers burned with the Milton Keynes case and this is much more sensitive.
Relying on 18th and 19th century case law ain’t go to find favour.
34: we should have T-shirts made! Oh, wait, someone already did it:
http://us.st12.yimg.com/us.st.yimg.com/I/victorystore00_2027_4565731
There’s a song too!
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ZY1dlMQqydE
…and a film!
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0414137/
38 - Surely that makes the Obama criticism worse rather than better? It is like Ming Campbell calling McCain somewhat elderly and befuddled or Martin Day criticising your spelling and over-use of smilies.
On all the channels I watched the speech this afternoon there was a block of writing at the bottom of the scree. But on one occasion when he adjusted his lapels Brown’s shaking hands were back.
43 - Hardly desperate. More a case of it making your man not look at wonderful as you think he is. It is quite interesting to know that the next President of the US thinks the next PM of the UK is a lightweight.
This New Statesmen piece is their journalists report of what his “diplomatic sources” said they had heard Obama thought. It’s unverifiable now and never likely to be verified because Obama will never go on the record with his view of a senior British politician.
Not worth further discussion.
35. Not telling. But I was mildly shocked to hear such a blunt put-down. Brown seems to seriously upset many who get to know him.
The Obama thing is interesting. If true, it’s a blunder by the Obama team - Cameron might well be the next British PM, and Obama will have to work with him on many issues.
If it ain’t true, it’s a blunder by lefties. Cause Obama might respond by saying something nice about Cameron.
The body language between Cammo and Obama certainly seemed friendlier than that between Brown and Obama. But then no one looks comfy with Brown. Even his wife looks faintly nauseous when he hoves into view.
8.Did you bother to read the story? I suspect that it will backfire and Obama will not be amused by it at all. Left leaning paper with helpful Senior Labour source thrown in at the end. Tut Tut.
Why can’t Gordon do spontaneity?
Either you can or you can’t, it’s rather like being able to spell “spontaneity”, most people can’t.
BTW, why is Jack Straw photographed so often with his eyes closed?
43 - I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Obama had called Cameron lightweight - it is hardly utterly without foundation is it? But it would have been private. Any party leader would kill for the Obama seal of approval, but none will get it.
30. Nonsense, If they are going to pay a higher mortgage rate due to catch-up payments even if spread over the remaining term. They will find themselves in problems from the higher taxation as well.
This is a political Mortgage Con by Brown. Nothing more, it is deffering trouble till later and is a cynical ploy by Brown to subvert media critism of Brown, the speaker and the police with regards to Green.
Please tell me Southam Observer, do you have a secure income from say a final salary scheme in the public sector not to be asked for mortgage protection? It is highly unusual not to be a pre-requesite for a mortgage for Mortgage protection not to be included? What was your loan to value ratio?
47 - And that will be that and the story will end.
On a more general point, does it mattr how Brown performs in the House of Commons. Was it not the case that Hague routinely destroyed Blair, and that Howard often got the better of him, but that it did not matter. Nobody cared.
54 One can see the hand of the Prince of Darkness in that.
Strange that Barack Obama should have uttered Labour spin lines in front of a pro-Labour magazine!
Anyone would think the lying c*nts just made it up.
Maybe Obama meant “lightweight” in the drinking sense? They might have got on famously until Dave collapsed under the table after a couple of vodka martinis.
8 So for Obama, other leaders being Pro-American is a bad thing? Leads you to wonder why he wants to be US President if he does not like people who admire his own country. Looks like we may have a lightweight President who does not care about the interests of the nation who elected him, very strange behaviour indeed.
42. This policy has costs as well as advantages. For some, it will be a good thing - keep house, pay slightly more. For others, the deferral might mean larger capital loss on home which they still cannot pay after two years.
For the banks, it is probably bad - increased capital losses (some people will declare bankruptcy at the end), greater uncertainty. For the government, it means a small cost to buy big headlines - possibly at the cost of more capital for the banks and a small interest rate guarantee.
As a policy, it’s cr@p. But in situations like this, it’s all about the choice between bad policies. Mch depends on the trajectory of house prices. Overall, I think the bad points outweigh the good ones. I’d go for short mortgage supports rather than a long one of two years. Yes, more people out, but fewer capital losses (good for the people and for the banks).
26- If you presume that all of the Libertarian vote was really entirely a GOP vote in waiting (a dubious presumption), there was still a shift of 9 points. If the Libertarian vote were to split 2 to 1 in favor of the GOP, however (seems more realistic, right?), Chambliss only stood to gain about net 1 point from the Libertarian vote. Thus, the shift was about 11 points from general election to runoff. You think I’m reading too much into the result. Time will tell. However, the evidence is supporting my proposition that dates back many months (and contradicting the eternal Democratic optimism shown by many here at PB) so I won’t be afraid to show it.
I bet the Tories end up supporting the Mortgage plan.
57 - But they will have had two years to sort themselves out, to find alternative accommodation, to get a new job, to renegotiate their mortgage terms and so on.
For example, someone with 17 years left on a mortgage who loses his job could take advantage of the break, get a new job and extend the mortgage term to 21 years, meaning monthly payments would be affordable and the bank would get its money.
65. No it’s a bag of Bollocks!
58. Yes good point. Hence the continuing Labour lead in the polls.
65 - Exactly. And how the posters on here will squirm when they do.
58
The trouble is that Brown is even worse in interviews and party political broadcasts. During the local elections I felt that the Labour party should have demanded equal time after every one of his appearances.
60 - Still owned (I think) by a Labour MP. Doubtless confided to the EC Trade Commissioner.
51. Agreed it doesn’t look good for Cameron but is a bit of cheap hit and run political knockabout that will never be confirmed or denied. Nicely done by the left-leaning magazine and no one’s complaining.
Is Cameron lightweight? Well, sometimes yes he is but Leader’s of the Opposition sometimes have to be lightweight in order to get the oxygen of publicity. They don;t have te weight of government power behind them so have to attach themselves to things that Pms wouldn’t in order to get themselves in the newspapers. I think all oppositions look relatively lightweight until they actually get into office and then their authority and weight grows.
Everyone thought Blair was a lightweight before he became PM but, whatever one thinks of him, he grew into a world statesman simply by being Prime Minister. Same with Obama; he became singificantly more ‘heavyweight’ one he was elected. it will be the same with Cameron if he gets elected.
68 - My giess is that Labour is not behind in the polls because Brown is a poor performer in the Commons. I think there is a lot more to it than that. If it were all about the Commons, Hague would have won in 2001. But he was humiliated.
68 Eh????
@69:
The devil will be in the details, I suspect. With cross-party support, maybe the bill can be shaped into something useful.
Left to his own devices, Gordon will find a way to f*ck it up.
72 - Indeed. Some of us recall “Bambi”
56.”43 - I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Obama had called Cameron lightweight - it is hardly utterly without foundation is it?”
Really? Oh I forgot, he wins leadership contests, and manages to lead his party! And then today he puts in a barnstorming performance while Brown was…well Brown.
46. Bless him!! I despise London, however, i would consider living there, just to be able to vote for him.
66. No. That only applies to those who end up being able to afford it. The issue isnt with them. Yes, they are beneficiaries and everyone is happy about them. It’s about the costs.
69. No. A cr@p policy is still cr@p no matter who endorses it. Just like the VAT cut.
What’s the betting all new mortgages will require an insurance policy to be taken out to cover the potential cost of delayed capital repayments? (Not interest as that would be covered by the Government scheme)
66. I will not squirm and on the face of it considering where the economy is politically I don’t think any party can outright oppose it (unless it proves to be another Brown con).
George Osborne has already said “i want to keep people in their homes”
The difference is from what I can see the Conservatives want to genuinely stimulate the economy. Brown wants to defer the problems and throw money at them much as he has done throughout most of the last 10 years.
Southam Observer - “Brown is great”
Thomas - “very good point”
Oh the nostalgia for the long gone days when roger and Tyson worked the old one / two.
72 - Certainly he cannot continue to be as lightweight as he is now when he comes to office.
It’s a minor story, given minor coverage in the Grauniad. The Statesman will probably go big with it, but that’s because it’s their exclusive (or was).
In other U.S. political news, Sen. Martinez of Florida is retiring and Jeb Bush appears to be strongly considering running to replace him. I’d have to say he’ll be a strong favorite if he chooses to win, as he is still quite popular in the state where he served eight years as governor. Maybe the Bush political dynasty is just beginning…
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16155.html
re 52. I think the Obama “comment” - however tenuous - is damaging to Cameron and will be used against him.
BBC News
Leading with repossessions and the government’s new measures to help.
Peston: Scheme removes risk and gives families in trouble a couple of year’s grace. It’s clever, most banks will give it a go.
Where are the “lightweight” tories? Nowhere!
66. You really think someone is going to remortgage someone in problems paying at the moment? They will be stuck with the same lender! Who will dictate terms.
It looks fine and dandy on paper but it will not work. It assumes the unemployed will not increase unsecured borrowing as well? Highly unlikely IMO especially if someone is running a house. When people are out of work unless they have effective protection they will increase other borrowings as well. So they will have higher mortgage payments, more unsecured debt to pay back plus higher deffered taxation and house prices will have fallen further. It is a stupid policy and i condemn it completly, it tries to give hope but is just delaying more problems and leading to a greater personal downside.
In the early 1980’s deffered mortgage payment schemes got people into a lot of trouble, to be fair it was mainly first time buyers. Great in a rising market but in a falling or stagnent, very dangerous.
84- If he chooses to “run,” not “win.” (!)
In context, this is a £1 billion pound measure when the UK’s mortgages are valued at £1.2 Trillion. it’s a drop in the ocean. It will help some true, but it looks like it is more sound-byte/ headline material than major policy.
73 But we don’t know if under another leader the Tory party would have split or done worse.
82 - If you bothered to read my posts you would see that “Brown is great” is very far from my view. To clarify: my view is that Brown is crap.
What depresses me is that the alternative we have coming is going to be just as crap.
86. Oi Gibberish - quoting Peston hardly gives you street cred. he makes nearly as many gaffs as John Prescott.
85. Mike, Labour would be advised to be very careful about using Obama’s comment against Cameron as he and his aides won;t like him being drawn into a political debate at home. It could lead to an official denial which would just make them look silly.
93. Sorry that should be political debate abroad
86. It does not remove risk at all!
87 - No, but they will remortgage to someone who has a job and, therefore, a regular income. If someone cannot secure a regular income they now have more breathing space to make alternative arranagements.
You may be surprised to learn that most unemployed people do not borrow more money and pile up ever higher debts, they rein their spending in, live within their means and go out to look for work.
93. Yes, it won’t be allowed to run. Not a good story for Cameron, but trivial in the overall context.
86. Anyway why aren’t the Met feeling Peston’s collar for the leaks he’s been receiving out of the Treasury?
85 - Hang on - Wasn’t the press full of comments about Obama being a ‘lightweight’ a few months ago?
86. The second item on the news was “Speaker admits the police had no warrant”, with the Queen’s Speech “completely overshadowed”, etc etc.
I’m actually surprised that Greengate got such big billing.
@93:
I suspect it’ll make Obama like Brown even less than he will after he’s had to work the brooding old emotional retard.
93. Obama is not going to bother himself over no-hoper “lightweights” like Cameron.
98. Treasury leaks - good. Home Office leaks - threat to national security, inducement, pandering, grooming, conspiracy, independence of the police, we don’t know the rules regarding warrants, blah, blah, blah.
99. Richard Nabavi: “Hang on - Wasn’t the press full of comments about Obama being a ‘lightweight’ a few months ago?”
Good point!
Cameron: The lightweight’s lightweight.
HAHAHAHA
@99:
Naturally, it’s a standard political smear for those currently being feared.
I bet Gabs wakes up screaming every night in a cold sweat having seen Dave’s strangely amorphous visage in his dreams. Again.
Screaming, but slightly aroused.
86: The BBC did, however, point out that (as with most Brown policies) it is “complicated”. What’s “clever” is that it will take some time to unravel it, by which time the impact of any downside will be lost (unless, of course, it turns out to be as catastrophically awful as the 10p tax debacle; which seems unlikely).
102. He will if Cameron looks like to be the next PM which most, if not all, polls suggest he will be. If you don;t realise that then you are a fool, but you do so you are just a prat.
104 Gabble - Well, I guess it takes one to know one. Maybe that’s why in the article in your link at 12 they look as though they’re getting on so well.
Or maybe it’s all tosh.
@102:
(a) He already has and
(b) When Dave becomes PM in 2010 they’ll probably spend a lot of time together.
Just imagine how that’s going to feel, seeing Dave and Obama smiling together on the news, the green shoots of recovery sweeping Cameron and Obama’s governments to unheard-of levels of popularity.
Imagine it, Gabble. GO ON.
I suspect BBC1 6pm News would have left a lot of viewers a bit confused.
Started by saying 45,000 repossessions this year and 75,000 forecast for next year. Then mentioned the Brown scheme.
But at no point did they say (or even suggest) that the Brown scheme will mean there won’t still be 75,000 repossessions next year.
68 have I missed a poll which has Labour in the lead? I believe the last one was back in January.
111. That was my sarcasm. Clearly sarcasm + internet isn’t a great mix. S.O. got it though.
86. Well, this unemployed person has reined in his spending and looked for work and i can tell you you are barking if you think unemployed people don’t get into debt. I have not been out socially for 8 F*cking months! You have to borrow money to heat the house, eat etc Why do you think people have increased requests for hardship loans from the DHSS by 40%?
I have applied for hundreds of jobs since being levered out of my last job.
You have refused to anwser my question 4 times on the type of Income you have, I think you should come out of the shadows.
You talk utter bollocks, people who utilise this “Life-line” are likely to be out of work anyway. You mention people re-morgaging in work, that is a different question entirely and the significant drop in income has not yet been defined. It is a rushed policy that is designed to mitigate negative publicity. You do not know what you are talking with regard to this and each point you make is being unspun and you refuse to reply.
Reading Peston’s blog there is a post on Gordon’s new wheeze and directly before it a post on re-possessions. The earlier post ends:
“it didn’t deny that it has informed the government that there will be 75,000 homes seized by banks and building societies next year on current trends.
The government has been looking at ways to protect families from the trauma of losing their homes when a breadwinner loses his or her job.”
Almost if someone had leaked that the Government might have something to announce - and maybe that’s why Peston (with guidance?) blogged on re-possessions.
In the past, being called lightweight has destroyed the electoral chances of the likes of Tony Blair and indeed Obama himself.
Reading the article, it does come across as either a hatchet job or something out of context..
Only Gibberish could laugh at his own jokes!
Does Brown ever do anything for purely altruistic reasons or is his every decision solely based on shot term tactics and party political advantage? Blair was certainly accused of that (by me at times) but it was clear as he went along that he really was trying to do things as with public sector reforms/war on terror that he really believed in.
I honestly think Brown really doesn’t have any passion for anything. Anything other than himself that is and his own political survival.
13. I never thought I would hear Mike describe a Tory politician as a ‘hero’
88. Good to see you on here S&S.
Perhaps the Spectator will retaliate and produce a list of people who regard Cameron as a substantial politician.
Hang on…here it is
Gordon Brown does not “appear shifty”, he is shifty, very shifty.
85 - Spot on, Mike. Surely the story gives an authoritative source (even if not confirmed) to a widely held view. It also corroborates the impression that Cameron is having a “bad” economic crisis.
Just a thought guys, whilst all this taxpayer funded help is great for all the property owning haves, who is helping the poor folks who rent their accommodation and then lose their job? They just get kicked out presumably.
65 Tim “I bet the Tories end up supporting the Mortgage plan.”
Shock! Horror! Tim offers to bet!
Your on, mate. I say that the Conservatives will not renew this two-year deferred mortgage scheme when it expires in 2010 and David Cameron is safely installed as Prime Minister. Shall we say £20?
121. Brown doesn’t care about you because you wont help reinflate the economy with more personal debt.
Hence you can feck off.
ITN’s very unimpressed by the reposession policy - a shambles, no less.
ITN reporting Brown’s mortgage support proposals shambolic and not agreed with banks.
126. Bank share prices tomorrow ?
126. Snap.
117 spot on Frank. That is all it is about, whatever the financial, human, or cost to our liberties.
I imagine that Brown’s mind works in a similar manner to many of the posters on here; while the observer sees one man asking another man a question, Brown sees a dirty Tory vomiting out his worthless words and therefore feels that answering the question is a waste of his time. He’s probably insulted that such stupid creatures are allowed to live in a free country, instead of being thrown into the sea where they cannot trouble the hard-working families and the children, the poor children, etc.
However, lacking as Brown may be, he was smart to have all those books on “hardworking heroes” ghostwritten in his name; they make better gifts than what Cameron’s handing out. No wonder Obama doesn’t like Cameron, the man gave him a book about slavery and a mix CD! Eugh.
Tom Bradby got the story pretty much spot on, and well done ITN for leading with the most important story of the day. Nick Robinson desperatly trying to get back some of the credibility he has lost recently describing events as more important that repossessions as democracy at stake….hmmm better late than never i suppose.
Does the housing minister have doubts about the great mortgage scheme?
Margaret Beckett, Housing Minister
BBC News
Ms Beckett said that the mortgage deal proposed today by the government was in the short term only.
“We can’t necessarily help people with their mortgages in the longer term. This is about people who would be okay in the long term.
@131:
Sky and ITV both leading with the abolition of democracy.
The BBC, of course, is spinning the unfunded mortgage wheeze for England. Quelle surprise.
Meanwhile… couple of poll points for Brown for his repossession breathing space wheeze? Especially since Gordon will make sure voters forget that this is *an agreement between banks* rather than a piece of government legislation? (Hence not in the Q’s S, as Harperson pointed out.) Oh, wait.. seems the banks know nothing about it. Ooops. Gordon must have forgotten to tell them. Still, ne’mind, eh? It’s the headline that counts, innit.
Sky:
Now reporting that the banks weren’t aware. Darling to meet them tomorrow. That should be some meeting!
Jeez, I only pop out for 15 minutes and the mortgage policy already looking like it is falling apart.
Punters all…
Further to the debate yesterday on new markets, could we set one up on how long it takes an announcement from Brown in the HoC to unravel completely?
Is the mortgage scheme a record?
135. That’s odd, on the last thread it was said that 8 banks were involved.
Brown is indeed an automaton, a machine politician of the worst kind. Mike is right. Being virtually autistic in his lack of empathy he is simply incapable of the witty deflection or ‘OK you got me’ that Balir could pull out of the hat every time. Cameron will relentlessly exploit this. We’re all political anoraks here. 99% of people vote according to general perception and not carefully thought out policy views. If Cameron can make Brown look more and more dodgy it will move polls and results.
121. They get housing benifit, if you live in privatly owned accomadation i.e. private landlord you quite often do not get the full rent anyway! There is no lag time unlike motgage interest Income support so you gain there.
This mortgage thing is already unravelling, christ, this government is pathetic. See post 129 and add the cost to the truth as well.
@138:
As reported by Peston. The truth seems to be somewhat different from Auntie’s line.
that should be Blair - obviously
113 - You are flailing. This is a policy designed to keep people in their homes, who would otherwise be thrown out of their homes. To my mind, that is a good thing. In the time space they negotiate with their lender they have the opportunity to get their lives back on track again. To my mind, that is a good thing. It will not solve everyone’s problems, but it will solve some people’s problems. I am puzzled as to why you are opposed to that. I, too, have been unemployed. When I was I was very grateful that at the time my mortgage payments were covered by social security. It was a huge help.
My personal circumstances are really none of your business. However, I earn a good salary in the private sector from a company that I partly own. I remortgaged last year and did not have to take out employment insurance or anything similar. I did have to take out lifeinsurance, however. Maybe you are confusing the two.
Hmm
Govt announce policy where the banks will help out.
Banks say they haven’t been asked.
CoE to meet banks.
CoE makes unrealistic demands to bank.
Banks tell CoE to get stuffed
Govt accuse banks of being uncaring before Xmas
Cynical? Moi?
The mortgage scheme is explained a bit on Peston’s blog. One of the replies gives a worked example that I think is quite sobering to read:
“At 6:01pm on 03 Dec 2008, sosraboc wrote:
Here we go again.
Let’s look at your example but with a few tweaks.
Price 450,000 August 2007
Mortgage 400,000
Value December 2009
450,000 minus 15% say (and in this market you will be lucky)
382,500
Interest rolled up let?s say 30,000 as you did. New debt 430,000 ignoring compounding.
Value in two years, December 2011 assuming only 15% further drop net (and at present you will be very lucky.)
382,500 minus 15%
325,125
Thus net negative equity 430,000 minus 325,125 is 104,875 who is going to cover this?
Oh silly me, the government.
Oh no!!! Silly silly me the government does not pay anything. You do, and I do, the ordinary taxpayer.”
According to the Beeb:
Shadow Chancellor George Osborne, for the Conservatives, said he would not comment until he had studied the announcement, which was not in the Queen’s Speech, more fully.
“As always with Gordon Brown, don’t just look at the headline, look at the detail,” said Mr Osborne.
And he said the government should consider a scheme to “keep people in work” such as the Conservative proposal to lend money directly to businesses.
Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman Vince Cable welcomed the scheme but said he wanted to study the small print before he was “satisfied that this actually covers the problem”.
“However, the scheme is not completely free for the banks, in that I understand they’ll have to pay a fee for the guarantee.”
So not only are the banking having to do something I’m sure they don’t want to do, they have to pay for the privilege!
As the government has a sizeable stake in many of the banks, I do not imagine they will have much of a say in whether this happens or not.
But it does look like yet another cock up.
148 - I think it will be difficult to portray banks as victims given the amount of tax payers money they have received over recent months.
@149:
Wait and see. The BBC’s not reporting this yet.
Maybe Gordon will be able to get away with this one.
Not sure why HSBC (are they one of the supposed
would sign up to something like this? The are a massive multi-national, they don’t need government money, and thus why would they want to limit their options about what they do with the money owed to them. I’m not saying HSBC are kick people out their home merchants, more looking at it from a business perspective, you have to be as flexible as possible and be able to make whatever arrangements you they think is best for each case. PR is about the only reason I can think about.
Can’t credit that anyone believes James Macintyre saying something about Obama when it’s based on partisan guesswork and people who have an interest in propagating untruths.
How easily they must fall for spin. Given that Macintye was Mandelson’s biographer I thought that any idiot could work out that he writes untruths for partisan purposes without breaking sweat.
Osbourne dithers around indecisively while Brown leads the free world with another forward-thinking policy that helps families who desperately need it.
This is just another example why the tories were wrong for Britain in 1997, and will be wrong for Britain in 2010!
114. My personal circumstances are really none of your business.
You mentioned it not me!
I do not believe who you claim to be, the use of language like ‘puzzled’ tie in with a frequent poster who also posts under aliases! 
Yes, Life insurance should indeed be taken out but many lenders require some sort of Mortgage payment protection!
Tom Bradby and Daisy McAndrews on ITN news reported that Brown has not got the big banks agreement for his 2 year mortgage interest payment plan. This is despite Brown claiming in his speech today that the 8 biggest banks have signed up to it.
Is Brown now so deranged that he is operating completely in a world of his own? What other explanation for this glaring contradiction could there be?
Constitutional crisis in Luxembourg! You think you’ve got troubles - our Grand Duke said he would refuse to “approve” a bill introducing euthenasia - effectively vetoing the measure. All the pols are agahst and they are going to have to rewrite the constitution so that the monarch will only “promulgate” the law. Or should we chop his medieval head off?
155. Is a post that should be for 144. Southam Observer
You would have thought with all the Green stuff still hanging about, that Brown et al would be very careful regarding porkies. Obviously not.
Haha, just seen the people who fell for it. Maybe people still left supporting the government are doing so because they really can’t spot an untruth when it’s shoved in their face?
So, so gullible.
9 - S&S, Chambliss won by a larger margin because all polls had shown that he would win and there really was little point in fighting that. At no point was Martin in with a chance and, regrettably, when that happens people just don’t bother voting again.
154 - Is this spoof astroturfing? Difficult to tell.
154 Bryan -
I particularly liked ‘leads the free world’.
144. Keeping a family in a house for two years that means they are made potentially bankrupt instead of some short-term hardship moving into a council property or parents etc is a funny way of looking at it. Many employers will not employ you if you have had financial problems such as this scheme.
I have an A1 credit record but i went for one job and they said i had excess borrowing despite the fact i had met all the payments and stayed within limits.
154. Bryan “Brown leads the free world with another forward-thinking policy that helps families who desperately need it.”
Hmmm. I suggest you read again the words of the housing minister.
“This is about people who would be okay in the long term.”
People who would not be okay in the long term are screwed…
155 - I really do not care if you believe me or not. My advice is that if you think I am an imposter, ignore me.
163 - That family may turn itself around. In fact, it probably will. Most people that lose jobs find other ones.
The obama story is just tipical of the left wing press who want to keep in power a nasty,spinning labour govenment,the dirty tricks of labour and brown have made me HATE this labour govenment with a passion.I live in a inner city and I should be a hard core labour supporter ,but this nasty out of touch party doe’s not represent me or my family,infact it’s made a new class of people where I live.the under class.I just hope people do not fall for the spin and lies that this labour govenment will bring forward,with the backing of they press and TV news supporters,remember campbell,whelan ,mandleson and draper are back ,these people made politics dirty.
re 154 = Bryan - You post under too many names. Choose one please and stick with it.
144. Why should I, as a hardworking taxpayer who can’t even *afford* to buy a home, have my taxes used to bail out other people who have such assets when they have overreached themselves and made bad investment decisions?
I’ve been responsible with my money, why should I have to pay for other people irresponsibility?
Remember: There is *no such thing* as the Governments money. It is all *our* money.
165. No, I just think you are out of touch and have no idea what you are talking about on this issue and you seem to have a Labour party agenda……
Fact of matter unemployed people generally increase their debt, you accused me of flailing. The facts of the matter is you talk B*llocks and anyone taking up this scheme will be in for a whole lot of trouble down the line, particularly if house prices continue to fall.
My view is maybe rather than announcing a gymmick like this it would have been better to suspend the mortgage interest Income support rules, that would have kept people in their houses. Why not? It is paid direct to the lender so will not be pissed up the wall! This scheme today is a gimmick! It fails to deal with the problem and will produce more indivual hardship not less.
155/165 - Whisper it but the concerted effort seems to have rid us of that particular ‘persona’.
Interestingly, SPINs prices have moved 4 seats towards Labour since yesterday. Now Con 340-346, Lab 236-242, Lib 42-45
Not clear why - maybe a delayed reaction to the ComRes poll? Or people offsetting positions they had to close on SpreadFair?
168 - Or maybe not?
168 Do tell or is there a game to be played guessing who “Bryan Air” has been previously.
174. Is there a book?
It must be hell asking Brown what he wants for dinner, he doesn’t seem to be able to answer any straightforward question negatively or positively;). Cameron seems to agree with Labour on certain things (at least on the surface), but Brown is at pains to even look at Cameron let alone agree with him:).
174
Major, unkown and unrepeatable rare element I guess.
Mandy is short of money so one spinner has to multitask…
166. Yes but if they were struggling to make ends meet already through a drop in income, do you think they will get a better paid job? Most people out of work for any length of time tend to get back in with lower paid jobs. My last job was an exception ( I got paid more), so it does happen but that was before a recession not during one or after one. Therefore assuming someone gets a job at the same or less level the individual will be in a bigger problem than before because they will pay higher taxes through National insurance increases amung many not yet announced. They will pay more on their monthly mortgage payments because they will have accrued more interest. The value of their propert will have gone down further.
The only plus side of the plan if you were advocating it would be the mortgagr interest accrued would be lower if Bank Mortgage rates fall.
Personally i think this idea is bad when Mortgage Interest Income support would have been a more direct and feasible way to approach the situation.
re 154 having rummbled the Major - who hasn’t been around for a few days - is Mr Air the latest tiresome manifestation.
Was it just me, or in the few moments after Brown stood up to reply to Cameron did Brown not look and sound like a man resigned to defeat?
Obama thinks Cameron is a lightweight?
So what, Obama snubbed Brown when he attempted to phone up and congratulate him on his election victory. He took Nicholas Sarkozy’s call first.
I wonder how the call went when Brown eventually got through:
Brown: “G—g–g-g—morning Mr Presiden-Elect, I’d like to congratulate you on your election campaign.”
Obama: “Yes, Prime Minister, you should try it some time…”
@171:
I think we should declare Ukpaul to be our ‘witchfinder general’.
He seems to be able to sniff Dollybots out at two hundred paces.
Been away from the computer for a while, so here’s my take on things [I know you all wanted my opinion :p]:
The mortgage thing is clever, if you’re after a short-term headline and probably pushing the Green business off the front page. Possibly damaged by the warrant nonsense which makes it even more incompetent. The announcement should’ve been in the Queen’s Speech though.
The Speaker did ok, and he could’ve easily done a lot worse. I reiterate my contempt for the Serjeant-at-arms. Maybe she wasn’t a token diversity appointment, but she didn’t get the job based on her competence, did she?
If the mortgage details (and/or the cost) don’t stack up then in the long term it’ll do more harm than good.
“I lost my house… I thought Gordon would help me…” doesn’t sound good.
156. So doesn’t that mean that Gordon has deliberately misled the House?
Point this out to the Speaker immediately. He’ll sort…. oh.
Whether you agree or disagree with the schemes the government is promoting, they are at least doing something. Something is 100% more than the government did in the last housing collapse.
On the main issues of the day, I just cannot understand why the government thinks a short term news hit helps them. Yes, they got the evening news with the mortgage thing but already it’s unravelling (Cable was on CH4 news picking it apart).
Within in a day or two it will likely end up with the story becoming an embarrassment and all because they wanted to control a day’s news.
Why? Can anyone tell me? 10p tax rate, you name it, it makes no sense.
On Greengate, Martin is a dead speaker walking, no need for the coup de grace, he’s out whenever. If only there had been *more* leaks in previous governments then politicians would be made more honest. Let’s have leaks galore and make the idea of hiding information one that any government knows is impossible. So it’s a law, a law to enable the hiding of truth is a law that needs breaking in my opinion.
“re 154 = Bryan - You post under too many names. Choose one please and stick with it.”
Always this happens with Labour trolls, ALWAYS AND WITHOUT FAIL, and yet people get offended when I call these trolls cowards and liars!
16 months? No election in 2009 before the economy gets worse in 2010. Or are they just hanging on to their Limos and ministerial salaries for as long as possible. Certainly nothing uplifting in this Queen’s speech
Just watching this Repossession policy unravel on a couple of channels, has this wheeze really been thought up on the back of fag packet in the last day or two? I don’t remember it being in the Queen’s speech, was it just dreamed up for Brown to try and take the heat of the government etc over the Damian Green story to prevent it dominating the headlines?
If they have not even discussed the details with the Banks, and no one has really thought it through, could Brown really be that desperate and politically stupid?
Yet again, I thought Osborne’s comments earlier in response were very deliberate and a bit odd in that context, but now they make perfect sense.
How is this going to be funded, and do the initial costs add up?
Did I hear on C4, that on top of bailing out the banks, we will be paying the interest to the banks on this scheme?
Apologies for all the questions, but this just seems chaotic and really looks like the worst kind of calculated political opportunism. I will await the 10pm new tonight with interest, going to be interesting to see what the BBC is saying then.
185 See this is where we fuundamentally differ and why we are £1trn in debt. Doing anything for a headline does not solve problems it makes matters worse more often than not. Thinking things through properly is the way to start solving problems.
189 - I’m sure by 10pm certain banks will have said there was a simple miscommunication and more than willing to back this very scheme.
Must be a picture to see a very grumpy and beaten Brown makes the calls to the banks as we speak.
Yeah I’m sure Dave,(lightweight)Cameron, ‘The man with the plan’ will soon have UK PLC ticking like a Swiss watch.
Can’t wait!!
193 He certainly can’t be any worse and at least with Cameron you are not going to be living in a surveillance/police state.
193 - I think everybody knows that regardless of who wins the next election, the next 5-10 years are going to be very very difficult and not a lot of fun for the majority of the population. That is the most depressing thing about the whole situation.
190. I totally agree- I’d like to know how much this scheme is going to cost, apparently 1 billion according to Labour.
Ok, ok, ok, ok. On the subject of Labour trolls, while it is true that we can identify posters like Darmy, the Major etc as Draperbots, not every Labour poster is a troll. Southam Observer has been accused of being one, but I don’t see it. Gabble is maybe a bot, but he’s also become a bit of a pbc treasure. Roger and the long missed RedFlump are clearly not trolls. I don’t think Tim is a troll. There’s something about the posting style of the bots that is very noticeable for being machine generated (I don’t mean literally). But some Tories on here are way too quick to judge.
Now to the important news. Sky News is headlining that Cambo has accused the government of ordering the arrest. Is this wise? It seems perhaps a bit foolhardy, unless I’ve missed some new developments.
We seem to be getting into a strange situation where the teams here are actually seeing two different sets of events, not just having two sets of opinions on events. Bobojob says the Tory case is unravelling while others say the events are becoming more damning. What is it? I may have missed some developments since I don’t follow the stories as closely as when I’m on my downtime.
183 I thought when Martin appointed Ms Pays (without consulting HM who’s appointment it is, thus no Royal invite to new SAA) that the job reference was changed as the SAA was no longer responsible for security at Parliament overall but only HoC?
From Parliament site
“The responsibilities of the Serjeant at Arms apply to the House of Commons chamber, public galleries, committee rooms and the Commons’ areas of the parliamentary estate.”
In the responsibilities of the Department of Chamber and Committee Services (in which Ms Pays works) which reports to the Clerk of the House, it says it is responsible for “ceremonial security services”.
Do MPs offices fall under the Commons Area. If not who then is responsible for overall security and why were they not consulted?
Looks to me that both the Speaker and the Clerk should have been asked but doubtful poor Ms Pays actually had the responsibility, following Martin’s removal of overall security from the SAA role.
Just got.
At about 6.40 pm Margaret Beckett was bing interviewed on 5 Live. When asked how many people would benefit from today’s mortgage anouncement she said about 9,000. She then stuttered and stumbled before saying that it was not the Government’s figure but someone from the mortgage industry. Later on the comment from was that she had blurted out the figure and appeared to regret it.
How can money be promised for any scheme without some assessment of the numbers involved? Seems like the figure of 9,000 is the one the Government is working on. Pretty small beer, not my words but those of the 5 Live presenter.
197. Southam Observer, we all know who he is!
Along with some other incarnations! Enough said!
“‘The man with the plan’ will soon have UK PLC ticking like a Swiss watch.”
And you think the ID cards scheme will work that smoothly, not to mention come in on budget, do you?
186 Ukpaul to be fair and I know its difficult Cable was`nt totally negative regarding help for mortgage payers in difficulty and this plan.
The speaker I agree with you.
Blaming the Police is ridiculous if you invite them in, everyone knows they don`t need a warrant.
Sign a consent form means you are a two times idiot.
He certainly can’t be any worse and at least with Cameron you are not going to be living in a surveillance/police state.
Oh yes he can! As for surveillance/police state, I’ve got this far, with my total criminal past being 3 points on my licence, I won’t be worrying too much.
Maybe I could be speaker Martin on PB! But instead of being Pro-Labour: Ican be Pro-Tory!
Speaking of the Green affair is anybody surprised at all that any of the Labour lot persisted with the lies today (Brown and Smith carry on lying shocker I just hope the press are looking for revenge for the threat that this whole affair poses to their livelihood), or those that got caught being at the very least incompetent(martin) that they blamed their subordinates. These people are of such poor character they make the krays look saintly.
197. Thanks Josh.
Is this where the story arose:
“Cameron: Govt Ordered Tory Arrest”
“During a debate on the Queen’s Speech, the Conservative Party leader said: “There is of course one person who is here despite their best efforts of the government, my Right Honourable Friend the Member for Ashford.”"
http://tinyurl.com/5ebnsm
I think it was more of a joke but did raise some hackles on the government benches.
199. The problem with Labour’s ‘We’re doing something, they wouldn’t’ line, is that the government can’t do that much. So their schemes are going to be considered failures for doing only a little, as they’ve built up too much expectation.
Mike Smithson - It matters not whether anything was offered.
OF COURSE THAT MATTERS. As does the operational independence of the police. You are so caught up in the hysteria around Westminster that you just can’t see the wood for the trees. Given the relationship between the ex-Tory candidate and Green the police had little choice but to make enquiries. People out in the country just want political types to stop banging on about it and concentrate on the economy!
“There’s something about the posting style of the bots that is very noticeable for being machine generated (I don’t mean literally). But some Tories on here are way too quick to judge.”
I sort of mentioned it yesterday, the style’s a bit like Michael White with even less sincerity.
202 - Not totally, the intent being good but the detail being flabby. Unfortunately a government has to do detail.
169. “Remember: There is *no such thing* as the Governments money. It is all *our* money.”
There’s no such thing as your money. Property rights are a useful fiction. (Philosophically, not legally. I presume that’s what Casino meant with regards to his statement as well.)
If one analyses the policies of the great economic world genius over the last few weeks, they really amount to nothing more than stirring the bucket until the world recovery eventually starts. Unfortunately, the desperate attempts to give the impression of purposeful activity will merely empty the bucket and the IMF will be asked to provide more water. The Great Helmsmans Queens’ Speech was very short but even so was too long for the content.
The Speakers’ Response to the Green Affair, even though the work of the finest brains in the Cabinet, was both pitiful and an insult to all who listened to it. Both Geo. Young and Betty Boothroyd proved by example that humble beginnings were no barrier to competence in the role of senior commoner of the Kingdom. Their successor has avoided, by pleading ignorance of his duties to Parliament and owning up to lack of leadership of his team, a constitutional crisis. By refusing to fall on his sword, he has exposed his cronies in the Cabinet to the full weight of Parliamentary disapproval. “Not me Guv”, a core value of Brown’s Government and followed to the letter by the Great Leader himself, has to break down at some point. The Cabinet is the Executive, and the Police are an arm of the Executive. Apart from the unbelievable statement that the Cabinet knew nothing when the orders to carry out the raid when the raid appears to be the subject of discussions between the Police and the Cabinet Office, the Home Secretary is by the terms of her appointment, in charge of the Police. Even if one believes that Mrs Smith was not culpable, she is most certainly responsible. It is truly unbelievable that 2 very senior policemen would have authorised such a raid without “top cover”. Mrs Smith’s yattering about “police independence of action” is merely a pole dancer’s thong to attempt to cover a political catastophy.
I look forward with interest to her fairy story tomorrow.
“As for surveillance/police state, I’ve got this far, with my total criminal past being 3 points on my licence, I won’t be worrying too much.”
God save civil liberties from the “If you’ve done nothing wrong you’ve nothing to fear” brigade.
211
I’d like to point out that, ‘grumpy old man’ is not to be confused by this, ‘onetime’ grumpy old man.
Just a stab at answering the question Why can’t Brown do spontaneity?
Many cases you set precedents - you always have to be a bit careful what you are committed to!! In this case - and as a liberal I would have pushed this - IMO this is all about the anti-terrorist legislation (I seem to remember there are exceptions about warrants where there is a suspicion of terrorist activity). This was where (presumably) Normington was “clever” in a Civil Service sense realising that by making the reason that there may be confidential, vaguely terror-related info that could / was about to be leaked, they wouldn’t have to go through the difficult political bits to get the Old Bill in. Of course, it lacks guts, and I would have thought a good old fashioned disciplinary investigation could have dealt with this. I would have thought it would have been easy enough to investigate and possibly substantiate gross misconduct in this case (Galley). Now I imagine Mr Normington has got himself in a right fix! And his political mistresses and masters! Frankly, a Permanent Secretary with that level of political sensitivity should never have got there. Peter Principle Rules OK!
I wonder what Cameron did offer the leaker.
Caroline Spelmans seat?
I quite like the idea of Brown bouncing the banks into a deal before they’ve worked out all the details.
It’s about time the country got something back for the multi-billion £ bail-out.
Brown’s performance today in the Commons was absolutely atrocious.
The Labour Whips were out in force and held their own for a while but Brown just cannot do thinking on his feet and more or less collapsed at the end of his (quickly abridged) speech.
Refusing to concede the issue of the search warrant was typically Brown: obtuse, gratuitous and tactically stupid.
215.
http://images.google.co.uk/images?q=handbags&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&sa=N&tab=wi
re 211. Is that you Coldstone? Please could you decide which name to post under and stick with it.
203 ok you obviously don’t understand the issue then.
212
Really, I remember Mrs T banning those she considered ‘terrorists’ from being interviewed, so much for freedom of speech.
When the IRA bombed parliament, Dr Rhodes Boyson MP in an interview called for the end of ‘Liberal England’ and the government should pass legislation which certainly would have turned the UK into a police state.
217 - It looked even worse on TV
213. Yes I was thinking that!
I agreed with the new Grumpy Bugger!
This Green affair has been terrible and someone is going to have to resign for it.
Personally i don’t think speaker Martin is much good and i will laugh very loudly next time he deploys “I’ll get on with my job whilst you do yours” or words to that effect!
He plainly is not upto the job! Mind you Gordon Brown is useless as well, so maybe i am a middle aged grumpy bugger! But without the buggery of course!
219
That wasn’t me guv honest!!
221. Yes, but it didn’t happen. We all know there are authoritarians in the Tory party, you don’t excuse it in Labour by pointing this out. If you could show that Cameron or his cabinet had authoritarian intentions, you’d have a point.
And Sinn Fein/IRA were indeed terrorists, not solely in her estimation.
217 - Mr Jackson.
I agree with you that Brown was poor.
But on your side, could I ask you whether the Tory leadership took legal advice on what constitutes an inducement.And whether you think this would be fitting conduct for a Prime Minister in waiting.
Do you think that Gordon realises how pathetic his performance was?
226. Did Gordon Brown offer inducements by the way?
I know he denied it when asked about the ulstermans help recently but did he give anything to his moles pre govenrment?
219. Is there going to be a ban on posting under different identities? I tried a different name once, but, like Consignia, it didn’t catch on.
Coldstone is not me. I’ve been grumpy old man across the blogosphere for several years now. i’d would reaaly dilike being confused with coldstone.
@216:
I’m not sure you do, you know, Gabble.
If the aim of the policy is to ‘win’ the news cycle, it turns into an EPIC FAIL as soon as it becomes clear you forgot to tell anybody about it in advance.
226. Tim, do you have a source for this claim? Or are you speculating?
(Btw, I certainly wouldn’t object to him taking legal advice on such a matter. Neither I, nor the vast majority of people in this country consider civil servants leaking to the press or the opposition poor behaviour. I don’t consider it significant IF they had offered him perks - which as far as I know there has been NO suggestion of.)
221 Gagging the IRA was stupid and affected about ten people. AS for Rhodes Boyson no law was passed, nothing happened. However Bringing in ID cards is stupid, expensive and pointless and nasty and importantly is going to happen, it is law
You clearly struggle to understand the difference between what is reality and what you believe is reality.
225 - Did you not read about the Provisional IRA infiltration of the Tory Party!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article5276192.ece
Noted Brown reverted to “why won’t they ask me serious questions” response, though this time with “economic” being added. After Cameron’s very strong Queens Speech response Brown really did look poor, and unable to deal with interruptions.
This mortgage idea has all the hallmarks of a Brown Flourish, sounds good on day, falls apart on examination.
I’m not telling any of you who my Super Sekrit alter ego is.
232 - Cameron refused to answer today in Parliament.
Grieve refused to answer on Sunday.
Both asked by Stephen Pound.
230. Coldstone results to frequent cheap cracks! I doubt you will think the Suez crisis or repeal of the corn laws are really an indication of current politics!
Redone in English
Coldstone is not me. I’ve been posting across the net as grumpy old man for several years now. I would really hate to be confused with coldstone.
Jon Craig
8 Banks welcoming the scheme.
Why, indeed, can’t Gordon do ’spontaneity’? Guy Fawkes fans might be interested in a link there to an article in which autism is suggested as an explanation for Brown’s inability to admit that he is wrong. Certainly, Brown’s response to a number of opposition questions about the search warrant issue will appear to many to be symptomatic of any number of emotional or personality problems. Alas, a diagnosis, even were it possible to find a number of shrinks who’d agree on one, wouldn’t help us.
Unflattering comparisons with Nixon, another character who seemed devoid of empathy or the ability to react normally to others, are hard not to draw. Blair was much better at taking the sort of punishment meted out to Brown this afternoon. His understanding of psychology was instinctive and his evasions and lies were just that, evidence that he could duck and dive rather than that he believed what he said.
PRISKIN
237. Should make excellent ministers then going on Gordon Brown’s performance!
234. Hardly earth-shaking. They infiltrated the HoC and Belfast Assembly years ago - by being voted in.
Are you calling for them to be banned from domestic politics?
217. “Refusing to concede the issue of the search warrant was typically Brown: obtuse, gratuitous and tactically stupid.”
Unfortunately what was totally inappropriate for the debate on the Queen’s Speech was the persistence of some of your Tory colleagues to ask the Prime Minister in effect to predjudice the outcome of the enquiry. He was right not to be drawn on the issue.
Your description above reveals far more about your partisan, dysfunctional and frenzied state of mind in the heat of the bear pit.
215 tim, the laws of libel do apply to blogs.
245 - The troll returneth.
226 taking legal advice to ensure one’s activities are consistent with the current legal framework is always sensible - its only a problem if they are taking advice to make sure their actions are illegal.
‘It’s legal you say? God Damn It, how much further do we have to go?!’
Of course what is really shocking is that leaks are needed - the government covering up their failures is of far greater concern surely than whether the Tories sought advice on the legalities of activities?
Is it
A) Government cover up their incompetence, Tories use beneficial contact to hold them to account and Labour lose it and order an investigation with Stazi-esque outcomes?
Or
B) Sleazy Tories go on a grooming binge in the hope of finding out Jacqui Boots tenderest secrets - and then having committed these heinous crimes, seek advice from a lawyer as they realise they are close to a spell at HMs pleasure?
Does anyone know who is paying the expensive legal fees for the singing civil servant leaker ?
Can`t seem to get anyone to answer, surely we have a right to know.
As they wont come cheap for the initial TV performance and more to follow I suspect.
237. Yes, but we discussed this at the time. ‘Inducement’ is an extremely vague term and it would be foolish to use such a term in the course of the criminal investigation. Saying ‘People like you are doing your country a service’ could be considered an inducement, as could buying a pint. So not answering that question is not evidence that they offered anything, but evidence that there are legal proceedings afoot.
Sometimes I dispair, Go off track and Brown has to do a risk assessment before giving a response. “Have the Police got it right by raiding DG’s Office?” the reply “N,n,n,n,n,n,n,,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,,n,n,n,n,n,n,The police need to operate indepently”
He reminds me of the old git on Vicar of Dibly…..
234 - Maria Gatland is a decent woman and a damn good councillor. She was the girlfriend of an IRA member for about a year, saw that it was wrong, and changed her life completely. She has been ‘outed’ by some Communist union rep. who didn’t like the Tory’s education reform policies in Croydon.
If every ex-trot and SWP drone in the Labour Party had to resign, their parliamentary benches would be even emptier than the where this afternoon when Brown was speaking.
237 I wouldn’t bother answering rent a quote’s questions either.
245 In what way?
249. Part of a ‘No win, no fee’ arrangement?
And in this particular case, any barrister worth his salt will be mentally spending his share of the damages against the police/government already.
251, bit unfair on the old git.
So, Jacqui Smith speaks tomorrow… at 3.30?
@245:
You’re back! Yay!
Some of our more optimistic posters were speculating that maybe you’d died of a massive brain hemorrhage. But no, her you are. Ready for another evening’s profitable evening giving Dolly the reacharound.
253. Just read the post (245.) three times and you might understand.
What will be the mood of Labour MPs tonight? Having looked at the replay this evening as I only saw Cameron live, Brown was very very bad.
Labour MPs can only look forward to 18 more months of being led by this inadequate PM until half lose their seats.
By half way through Brown’s speech, half the Govt benches had emptied, to drown their sorrows?
249 Surely you don’t believe in rights just in the operational “independence” of the police.
@257:
It gave me the RFH. Is that a normal response to your natural oleaginous magnetism?
Margret Beckett on Radio Five live when asked how many people would take up the mortgage scheme said “9,000″
CML says 75k repo’s next year - so that might drop to 66k.
Peston has updated this blog post her comments and calls it “small potatoes”
So Beckett admits that in the most optimistic scenario of Gordon’s Grand Scheme is it will help 15 households per constituency (if it was even remotely more, they would be touting that “expert” instead). Mmmmmm - better hope not to be in the 99.9% who gets no help then. And 15 houses not on the market in each constituency helps the housing market how, exactly?
Labour need to be held to account by the Tories and the media, told to stop throwing money around that doesn’t exist, and forced to put up their hands and admit they haven’t got a magic wand. The economy is screwed, they screwed it, and they have neither the means nor the imagination to stop it being very very painful for the voters. We have a Govt. trying to tell people they can still drive Ferraris when they can barely afford a Ford.
258, mixed. Some will be pleased with the mortgage ‘reprieve’ (as called by the BBC). If the detail falls short or flat entirely it’ll be worse than doing nothing.
168. Mike: I have only posted under this name recently. The other few names were used on different machines. If I can use the same name on my laptop and netbook then please tell me how.
257 No still don’t get it, I am going to go out on a limb and guess you just said the first thing that came into your head, bit like Gordon and the 10p thing
189. ‘Just watching this Repossession policy unravel on a couple of channels, has this wheeze really been thought up on the back of fag packet in the last day or two’
Yes - told you so on the previous thread. It’s just the same old familiar pattern - invent some spin to grab the headlines for an hour or two, or bury some bad news. Tired, predictable New Labour.
I must say this has unravelled even faster than I expected though….the hamster is going to have to run even faster.
256. Martin Coxall: I wish pb posters could be a bit more supportive of measures to help hard working families and businesses in these difficult times, instead of their obsessive negativity and attempts to prejudice an enquiry into alleged misconduct by making it a political issue.
160- Don’t buy your argument. There was much championing of Martin’s cause over the past few weeks in the media and nobody was singing your tune (i.e., Martin was always doomed) until the runoff election was over and it was time for excuses. Again, the result in Georgia substantiates my argument of a swing back to the GOP and I believe you’ll see more evidence of this standard historical trend in elections during the year to come.
Isn’t it somewhat disrespectful of HMQ to write her a speech outlining policy for the coming session and within two hours say ’screw that’ and make some new policy up on the hoof?
239
The banks will welcome anything which keeps Brown off their backs for long enough for them to rebuild their balance sheets before the next tranch of toxic debt hits. The banks are lending to no-one, and most small and medium businesses are cutting borrowing as fast as they can, to avoid going out of business. I advise all you mortgagees to to the same if you possibly can - I have. That’s the real world folks. Put not your trust in Socialists. oh. and start an allotment-Dig for Survival.
Peter Riddell - some welcome balance in the MSM:
“Outrage over the Damian Green affair shouldn’t be one-sided”
“…contrary to many furious comments since last week, parliamentary privilege applies only to what is said and does not give MPs or their offices within the Palace of Westminster any special protection from the law and police inquiries.”
“But outrage should not be one-sided. It should recognise not just the rights of MPs but also the duties of civil servants.”
271. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/peter_riddell/article5276115.ece
254 b depends what you classify as a win.
He is unemployable in the civil service or as a conservative party employee.
Could write a book with serialisations of how he defended democracy.
Being round Gordon Brown tonight can’t be much fun. It’ll be like an Old Trafford dressing room after losing at home against Arsenal.
262. I have mxied feelings. On the one hand you hear people like Nigel Lawson saying confidence is everything and it’s important for the government not to talk down the situation.
However brown gets peoples’ hopes up with ‘big’ promises, but it is so hard to see us avoiding the rocks and once it really kicks in Brown will get hammered for not being sober enough in the first place. I think Darling understands this with the grave tone he’s been adopting, but Brown’s assurances that we’re better placed than other countries is a stupid message in the medium to long term. He just can’t think very far ahead.
re 245 Evening Bryan. And tomorrow Matthew, I’m going to be …
265.
I’m sorry you don’t have a handle on these issues…
270. Is it too late for brussel sprouts?
249 Why does it matter?
Amusing bit on C4 news, they were talking to a representative from Lloyds TSB about lending to businesses, they asked him about the mortgage bailout plan, he said it was news to him and they’d have to find out what it was all about.
re 249 dez is it too outlandish to consider that some principles are just so important that they might be doing it pro bono
277. I am sure you have a firm grip!
Perhaps surprisingly, there seem to be quite a few people annoyed by this mortgage payment plan. Some can’t see why people should be helped when they have overstretched themselves or become overstretched and suggest they should cut their cloth accordingly. Others seem to be looking for a continuing house price fall to allow them onto the ladder in the first place and fear this will queer the pitch. In both cases there is already a lot more resentment than I would have at first suspected.
281. Yes, like most others..
267 do you get commission for each time you say “Hard working families” and if so how much, I reckon I can do that job, look:-
“Hard working families”
“The right thing to do”
“It started in america”
“
Strong position to whether the recessionoops better scratch that one“
No more Boom and Bust” and that one.See its easy. Apart from being forced to change lines pretty quickly as things deteriorate.
The negativity of the Tories in Westminster, mirrored here,is very sad.its as if you want half of Britain to be repossessed for your political gain.At least GB is trying to do something whilst all your Dafydd can do is criticise.
Someone mentioned on an earlier thread the possible effect of interest rates falling in relation to the surprise ComRes polls.I just wonder if people are starting to notice the big falls that some are lucky enough to have.My modest mortgage has halved these last two months and if I was a ‘floating voter’it may just give me cause to think that Labour was perhaps not so bad after all.
And, not forgetting the fall in petrol prices which almost everyone in the country can identify.
@267:
“Hard Working Families”
Are you serious? You’re not even trying now. That’s such an obvious Labour spin line, I can only assume you *want* us to think you’re a Dollybot.
What’s your game?
273 Clive Ponting, who left the Civil Service under somewhat similar circumstances, wrote a number of very readable books, and went on to an academic career.
My guess is Mr Galley’s life is just beginning — and his bank balance is about to receive a transfusion of serious cash.
My reading of the Green-gate saga is that Tories have the edge, but the position of the Labour party is not too bad and they may yet get through it without a casualty.
However, the Met look to be in deep, deep dog-sh*t.
Remember with every single scheme Brown announces (about any subject) the number of people who actually end up taking part is far, far lower than is originally announced.
Yet the media never bother to follow it up.
Here’s a challenge for the media - why don’t you tomorrow follow up how many homes have actually had free insulation installed since the government announcement a few months ago.
Gabble, tim, the Major might enjoy Jackie Ashle’s take on the Queen’s Speech
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/03/queens-speech-labour1
but then again probably not
“They are about a once-radical and optimistic party ageing. Individually they may be good or bad, but they are all about control, scrabbling to get a grip of a self-indulgent and also threatened nation.
If you’ve ever wondered what the prime minister finds to talk about with the editor of the Daily Mail, there’s your answer.”
Just a quick point - the Bank of Cyprus have reduced their monthly interest rate on sterling balances from 5.50% to 3.15%. Not surprisingly, sterling is being ditched for dollars or euros. What price the pound?
@289:
Ouch, Jackie. That’s harsh…
Is it so bad that HM Govt should want to get a grip of “a self-indulgent and also threatened nation”?
282. No, I just think it is bad for the people Labour claim they are trying to help!
If people were in dire striats upto the point they were made unemployed it is unlikely they will see improved circs in two years time after a recession. Usually lean times not times of plenty! If people had enough money for a safety cusion of 3-6 months money to see themselves to Mortgage Interest Income Security or the deferemnt period on their mortgage interest payment protection this is of no use.
The poor buggers who have over extended themselves will just be deffering the inevitable with a bigger downside. Bigger losses due to property price falls plus interest on deffered payments. Nightmare! As I said before the more expensive option of Mortgage Interest Income Support reform would be more appropriate.
280 No but if that is the case, I would be surprised.
Cameron failed to answer the question.
He could have said I have no knowledge who is paying the suspended civil servants legal fees.
He also failed to answer Tony Wrights question in the commons today.
That says it all to me.
289 Though personally I think the Major is a very clever bit of performance art - the author has created a masterpiece.
These are opinion I abhor but I fear this analysis from tghe EU Referendum blog is probably accurate and something for Tories to mull over:
“this is a neighbourhood which – away from the frenetic, self-serving bubble of Westminster, and the squawks of indignation at the treatment of Mr Green – rather enjoys the prospect of an MP’s pad being turned over by the Old Bill. Most of us here have enjoyed the attentions of Yorkshire’s finest and it is nice to see our elected representatives sharing our pain.
Should Green ever be banged up, the most probable reaction will be to ask when the other 600 or so will join him. You will not get any complaints here if the whole damn lot of them are locked up, much less any accusations of a police state, with Stalin-like tendencies. Only the “poofters daan Sarf” expect their police to be anything other than thugs in uniform - and even the dustmen seem better dressed.
Something of this is undoubtedly reflected in the ComRes poll conducted for The Independent. This puts the Tories on 37 percent and Labour on 36, with the Lib-Dems on 17. These figures, we are told, would give Gordon Brown an overall majority of 10 if repeated at a general election.
This, of course, is a rogue poll. Of course it is. But, a week ago, we were suggesting that Labour’s pre-budget report might play better with the lower orders – the ignorati as we put it – than the clever-dick chatterati were prepared to admit.
Needless to say, we were shouted down, but an interesting facet of this current “rogue” poll is a strong surge in Labour support among the bottom social group. The DE group has risen from 35 to 51 percent over the past month while Tory support among the same group has dropped from 39 to 25. Labour’s backing among C2 skilled manual workers has grown from 23 to 35 percent.
Perhaps significantly, even if it is a rogue poll, the number of “natural Tories” who intend to support their party has also fallen from 95 to 91 percent. And the Tory cause won’t have been helped by the appearance of the well-groomed Tory Boy Christopher Galley on the telly last night – so confident of his “cause” that he remained silent and allowed his highly-paid lawyer Neil O’May to do his talking for him.
Thus it was his lawyer who told the world – or that small bit of it that could be bothered to watch – that the information leaked by Galley was “important for the public to know in an open and democratic parliamentary system.” We are also pleased to learn that “as a shadow minister for immigration and as a Member of Parliament, Damian Green received the information in the same spirit and used it in his parliamentary duties.” And the other one has bells on.
Up here in the sticks, though, we don’t understand such subtleties. We ain’t clever like what all these other bloggers are, having “lost our marbles” long ago. However, it may come as a shock to them that all the pub-goers see here, as they stand outside in the freezing cold to smoke their fags, is another “Tory prat” getting his comeuppance.
But then, it really is a different world 200 miles outside the bubble. Little Galley’s lawyer yesterday burbled about his leaking being a case of “don’t shoot the messenger”. Here, we’re not leaking – just pissed off. And it looks like, according to this totally rogue poll which don’t mean nuffink, that the messengers here and elsewhere are shooting back.
‘The question is more one of judgement. MPs have a special, if not always privileged, position that depends on confidential relations with constituents and others. There has to be a very tall hurdle before an MP is arrested and his offices and home searched. There should be evidence of a serious crime. But there has been no allegation that Mr Green risked national security.’
Peter Riddell.
But the last sentence from this article Gabble rightly says is balanced, is wrong. Plenty of Labour people have tried to imply there was.
Because it was in the Home Office and therefore there is a risk. Does everyone in the Home Office get access to what they like?
The cleaner? What if she is an illegal immigrant?
If the HO really think a junior official can get access to sensitive material, there is a serious problem in the Home Office.
283.
282 Some people will undoutedly get into trouble because they have had a change in their circumstances. If that is genuinely a temporary situation and they have a good case to make to banks, I would hope that banks generally would take a pragmatic view and try and help these people out. I realise that may be at the optimistic end of viewing the way banks work!
But if someone has had a change in their circumstances that is not going to be remedied - say a marriage has broken down and now there will only be a single income coming in - why should society be expected to “make it all better”? Labour seems to be trying to smooth out the ups and downs of life, so that there are only ups.
And don’t even get me started on those - and I suggest they will be way more than 15 in each constituency - who have essentially committed fraud in puffing up their earnings and borrowing massively against that. Does Gordon really think they should be helped out?
mike L - or even pensioners with the free insulation promised 11 years ago.
285. Someone mentioned on an earlier thread the possible effect of interest rates falling in relation to the surprise ComRes polls.
I thought it was an independent Bank of England?
@295:
A brave article that seems to be entirely predicated on the ComRes poll being proved correct. I doubt that anyone here seriously believes it will.
277 I certainly have a handle on your thinking, it seems to be kneejerk and lack any analysis whatsoever and therefore you come across an unthinking automaton and not a human being at all.
294 Can we submit the Major for the Turner prize?
Football: referee = alastair darling
Major, are you Gordon Brown?
Martin.
o you think the Tory lead has narrowed in the last two months?
I remember Jim Callaghan dismissing Margaret Thatcher as a lightweight. We all thought Blair was a lightweight - I still do and so does Gordon. I love the line “Deep down Blair is really shallow”. So accurate.
I don’t think Cameron is a first class thinker, 2.2 at best. But, the more I see him the more I recognise that there is something beneath the glitzy exterior.
A month or so ago we spent an evening here discussing the American Civil War. It seems to me that Obama seeks to model himself on Lincoln. A policy of having no policy, appointing a key rival for the nomination as Secretary of State. The one apparent difficulty he will face is that as yet we have seen little evidence of wit. Yes,he can do constructed carefully crafted speeches and not everyone can, vide Blair. He doesn’t freeze at the unexpected like Brown, few would but he has nothing beyond polite fripperies in those circumstances - or if he has we haven’t seen them yet.
For Obama to reach the levels which so many seem to expect he needs to stop thinking “What would Abe have done ?”. Abe often got it wrong.
For Cameron, get rid of that poncy haircut. If you look lightweight then lightweight people will assume you are.
287 Gwynfa agreed.
Can`t understand the Police action surely at first glance they could have said deal with it at a disciplanary measure gross misconduct breaking civil service code.
Unless something serious comes out, the police are in the situation you suggest.
305 - Hardly! Far too articulate.
(OT) This: if you think PMQs is rowdy, watch this clip from yesterday’s Question Period in Canada.
http://canuckpolitics.com/2008/12/02/harper-dares-dion-to-face-voters/
reminded me of this:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=hP7zkOrDc9k
301. I sincerely hope the ComRes poll will prove to be a rogue. But - against all my personal beliefs - I still have a horrible feeling that the EU Ref perspective does represent a sizeable chunk of British public opinion. We shall see.
Shofar, stop waving Mandy’s briefs.
@306:
It’s hard to tell. Whilst the Tories have remained comfortably in the mid 40s, the Labour and Lib Dem share of the vote has been too volatile to discern long-term trends.
I suspect there has been a slight recovery of Labour support in its heartlands, but the effect seems to be largely absent in the marginals where it matters.
So that’s an equivocal maybe.
@311:
We shall. If the ComRes poll does turn out to be accurate, I’m probably gonna lose shitloads on the commons spreads.
PANIC.
309-
285 Brown got us here, he is the reason we are £1trn in debt, He got us here by doing the very things he has done today i.e. announce policies to try and wrongfoot the opposition. Not to try and improve things but to try and gain a days headlines. When it all goes wrong he will bame someone else. This is how Labour govern we have seen it repeated time and again.
308. I think we can expect the ‘pass the parcel’ blame game to go on for some days yet, with police, government and parliamentary authorities all pointing at each other. But the music will stop sooner or later - there are too many inconsistencies, someone is clearly lying.
303. 294 Can we submit the Major for the Turner prize
Before or after a reworking by Damien Hirst?
313 - It’s hard to tell. Whilst the Tories have remained comfortably in the mid 40s,
An average of the Tory support over the last ten polls is 41.5%
285. Fair point in your 2nd para. some borrowers will support Labour because of the interest rate cuts. Similarly some savers will stop supporting Labour because of the cuts.
As a result of the constant bank bashing by Brown, can there really be much doubt that HSBC, arguably the world’s most successful bank, will follow a number of other major British-based companies, in upping sticks and moving its tax status from the UK, thereby saving hundreds of millions of pounds per annum and resulting in a masive loss of tax revenue to HM Treasury? It would be crazy for it not to not to in the circumstances.
Should anyone disagree, my £50, at even money, says the bank will announce plans to such effect within the next year, i.e. by 30 November 2009. First come first served, by 2400 hrs tomorrow.
Where is Nick Palmer ? I was hoping he might make an appearance to tell us that Brown’s speech actually came across a lot better in the flesh than on tv.
valleyboy @ 285 sounds suspiciously like darmstadtium, as I recall getting him to admit his location, when I postulated that he and Gabble were the same person.
@319:
Yes, but looking at the crosstabs, it’s rather significantly higher in the key marginals.
281, Dear Major. I was a small piece of grit in the mighty machine that was 70s/80s NATO. Out of interest, what was your Regt/corps? I was commissioned in the RAF for 20 years.
I also fail to understand how you can support a party that got us into a marginally legal war, and since has systematically worked to destroy our comrades and successors with inadequate kit, slum housing conditions, slave-wage pay and futile strategic planning. Or are you Sally Army? If this is a pen-name, did you know that impersonating a military officer is a criminal offence?
Do tell.
323 - When was the last marginals poll?
324 GOM. The major is not only doing a poor imitation of an officer, but an even worse imitation of a human being.
317 runnymede at the moment it is as you say.
To arrest an MP, surely only the most senior police officer would authorise that.
Any officer below investigating would ask for that, to cover their own career.
So surely that person would have been shown the known evidence and how serious it was.
Just read Robinson’s latest Pravda effort. Ending paragraph:
“Let us not forget, also, the question that was put again and again to David Cameron about whether he as prime minister would feel comfortable with the systematic leaking over a period of two years.”
Yeah. That’s the important question.
valleyboy, like so many others on here, forgets that there are more savers than borrowers. The savers (me included), whose investment income is falling below inflation, are getting just a little peed off with all the concessions being made to the profligate borrowers at our expense. Vote for vote, a sure loser!
320 I think we can broadly agree that people will, in the main, vote for the party who they think will most benefit them personally.
It will be very interesting to see what pans out in the polls over the coming months.
re 295 - you are investing a lot in one poll which is totally out of line with the other polls that we have seen. I understand the natural desire of Labour supporters to want to believe the survey that shows them in the best position. This might indeed be the position but we need other surveys to support it.
ComRes is fairly new on the scene and has been using its current methodology only since March 2007. It has a reputation for turbulence. I worry about a poll that within ten days reports the Lib Dems on 12% and then the Lib Dems on 17%.
Look at how consistent ICM is -
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/icm
Wait and see is the only sound strategy.
330, although it’s a big factor, I don’t think it’s necessarily the decider for many people. 10p is a case in point. Lots of middle class people don’t like the idea of the poorest funding an income tax cut for them.
329 Mega point.
321
And if Barclays follow suit?
And Standard Chartered?
And Tesco?
And a few of the bigger miners?
No doubt it will be George Osborne’s fault..for talking down the status of the Uk as a tax haven ,, or the pound or the price of getting a Lordship (oops sorry)
329 I am a saver and mortgage holder and am hardly profligate.Charity shops do quite well out of me.
Savers had done pretty well the last couple of years. Perhaps it is now the time of for the pendulum to swing back.
330 - you make my point - there are more of us losers than there are Gordon’s winners. Failure!
322 I can assure you I am who I am and have been posting only under this name for a couple of years.
335 - Where have you been saving your money to make a profit? In the stock market? Do tell.
335.Yes, we lost the earnings on our savings.
But we have had a great time; the pensions funds we have been struggling to accumulate [usually when you get your statement they have been worth less than you paid in] have collapsed.
Our endowments which failed to live up to their billing have all been rescheduled, just in time to collapse again.
331. Very valid points Mike, but I should point out these are not my views. They are quoted from the EU Referendum blogsite. I am not a Labour supporter (very far from it) and I really hope that ComRes have it wrong. I only posted the article here because I thought it represented a genuine strand of opinion - OK Mirthios I’ll stop waving Mandy’s briefs about now.
337. I take that back valleyboy.
@325:
Some while ago, but you can extrapolate from the crosstabs on other polls. Excluding the recent ComRes one (which my gut is telling me we should), Tory support is well within comfortable election-winning territory where it counts and has been for some time.
The bulk of Labour’s limited recovery *appears* to have happened in their heartlands, which because of the nature of the electoral system, is next to useless for them.
335 & 339 People said we were mad to try and save, invest in property instead. !
340 - sighs of genuine relief!
335 tw*t. Interest rates were too low in the first place which caused the borowing bubble which caused the recession!
Put rates up to 10% now!
@340:
The thing is, it’ll be easy to debunk. As soon as we have another poll, we should see if there has been an astonishing turnabout in the polls, or if ComRes have got a volatility problem.
343 Labour dont like people saving - they like people to rely on handouts and be spongers!
347 It increases their vote share.
I did a little analysis comparing the 2004 presidential election results to the 2008 results, primarily looking at how each candidate did relative to their overall national result and also looking at how each state appears to have shifted since 2004 relative to the center. Here is the kernel of the results for any interested parties:
The new swing states (from predicted closest to least close in a hypothetical “tied” presidential election) - Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Wisconsin (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin tilt blue in a tied national election while Ohio, Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina tilt red)
Strongest pro-Democrat swing since 2004 (in order from strongest swing)- Hawaii, Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Delaware, Utah, Vermont, Louisiana, Illinois and Nevada (tie)
Strongest pro-Republican swing since 2004 (in order from strongest swing)- Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia and Oklahoma (tie), Massachusetts, Arizona, Kentucky, Alabama, Alaska, Mississippi
Discounting swings in states with home state presidential or vice presidential candidates on the ballot, it is clear that the GOP has achieved the greatest swings in southern states while the Democrats have achieved their greatest gains in the Midwest. Interestingly, almost all of the affected states are states that would reliably vote Republican in a close national contest. Changes in other states were negligible.
I see the Labour spin-artists latest bit of spin, see Gabble and Tim, is to claim that sources said Obama criticised Cameron. Pretty desperate. A Mandelson line if ever there was one.
321. If the world’s biggest bank says the UK is no place to run a business why would any other international business remain? It would be a hell of a blow to confidence.
re 339. I’m in the same position. I gave up full-time work at Xmas to work full-time on PB and a key source of income was to have been the interest on the cash lump sum. Fortunately I didn’t invest this in stocks and shares or a Icelandic bank - but now the interest rate is down to 2.5% LESS tax and I’m getting less than half what it was.
There’s not even anything to bet on.
Ave It!
Only just come back on and didn’t see your rapier like retorts. Thought you had deserted us!
Anyway I agree the whole recession is a socialist plot!
345
Put up interesting rates now runs the risk of serious deflation.
So I’m all for it.
Deflation! Deflation! Deflation! My savings love a bit of deflation!
Deflation! Deflation! Deflation! Oh why can’t we have some deflation!
But onto valleyboy’s point, it is ridiculous to say we’ve been having a lovely time over the past decade. Interest rates have been low, as Gordon has bragged. For those who saved in tortoise banks, rather than hare banks, liquid assets have not yielded much.
324. 326.
You don’t contribute much of value by throwing around personal comments.
Back to the real world where the rest of us live, what do you feel about the “mortgage payment help plan” announcement? Something tangible that aims to deal with the real hard challenges for the people of this country in these difficult times.
249 - why is North Carolina in your list but not Virginia?
347 + 348
It is interesting what yoi say about labour not wanting people to save and wanting them to be dependent on handouts.
It is quite true as it feeds into the big state narrative.
Remember milliband just before his banana moment at the conference saying that people could make it without the state; ie without labour you’re alone
There are tonnes of gimmicky give aways, such as the education maintenance allowance, why the hell do you have to pay people to stay on at school ? Or the child trust fund or the touted saving scheme where the govt put in 1.50 for every pound you save.
It is just about getting people hooked onto expecting cash handouts which they haven’t worked for.
I hope Cameron puts a stop to all that
One question for any MPs perusing the blog - Why when the HoC has a longstanding Committee on Standards & Privileges (previously the Committee on Privileges) does the Government propose another committee, with members appointed by the Speaker, to look into specifically the issues surrounding the searching and removal of Mr Green’s parliamentary papers which must surely fall in it’s remit?
The Speakers statement gave the lie to Ms Harman’s claim that her meeting yesterday was only about the timetable around the Queen’s Speech and the Speakers statement and other domestics. The setting up of the Committee and the timing of the debate, both to be presented by the Government had obviously been discussed, wonder what else?
355 Or… not worth commenting on until we see the detail.
Comemnts have been made that (a) it may in practice help very few people and (b) could make things worse for some people by inducing them to increase the size of their debt rather than bail out early.
352 brilliant post - Mike Smithson rules!
353 the measures brought in by Labour are a plot to put us all on welfare!!
354 yes lets get them up! 15%!! All those who borrowed beyond their means on the streets!!! (And dont give them extra unmarried mothers benefit sorry tax credits either)
And I want my personal allowance back! Give it back Darling you thief!!
Re Post 68 by Thomas - but Labour aren’t leading in the polls.
@355:
No offence, mate, but I find it hard to believe that you live in the ‘real world’.
357. Going into the Euro at a discount rate would not be good for savers either! As you would get Euro = Discounted Pund which means less savings!
Didn’t Gordon Brown claim that Germany was in agreement with him?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/03/germany-economy
352 Looking at the paucity of content in the Queen’s Speech Gordon might well be planning to give you betting opportunities soon.
363 hello Martin - hope you are behaving yourself tonight!
Dont worry Camo will save us…
352. (This is not a told you so post or me being sarky!) I hoped you went into the three year bond where you got circa 15% via the yorkshire bank, when i advocated a month or two ago! Times of falling interest rates and inflation it would have been good for you to get in!
Not related but i notice they now offer a lower guarenteed return with profits! I think it is uoto 10% plus the chance to get a 40% return!
357 - Cameron has intentions to pay people to get married doesn’t he.
Even rich old childless people.
Today’s announcement that the police without a warrant may have illegally taken away evidence from Parliament raises interesting legal issues. Would the evidence be inadmissable in any event in any prosecution of Galley/Green?. The inappropriate Consent given to the police covers exactly what? e.g.Admission to Parliament yes but surely not removal of all information on Green’s computer.
Is there a lawyer that can advise on this?
368. Doubt it. Under Harridan’s new sex rules that probably counts as prostitution.
355. The housing minister has already dissed the mortgage scheme. Do keep up…
364. I think DC highlighted this in the Queen’s Speech debate
357 brilliant post
370
368. Even rich old childless people.
You really are a sad little bigot aren’t you?
366. Yes not too bad! Bloody cold! Lots of Snow here no doubt overnight! I went upto the Hills south of Huddersfield today (Holme Moss) and it was Minus 2.5 o’C! This was 3′oclock and the sun was up! Powder Snow as well!
Well, will Cameron be too late? Labour just keep adding to the mess!
I hate gordon Brown - he is a B’stard! 
369- slam- once the police arrest you they can do what they like.
I expect to be doing my turn on the doorstep this weekend. I will be very interested to try to establish what Joe public is thinking after the turmoil of the last few weeks.
375 yes the cold helps labour with their policy of killing off the old with heating cost increases and interest rate cuts……
“…It was Minus 2.5 o’C! This was 3′oclock and the sun was up! Powder Snow as well!”
Gordon’s fault, Martin?
362. No doubt there are many versions of the “real world” on this thread.
374 - no.
I was trying to make a point of the stupidity of a policy which supposedly is aimed at helping children also payin out on Elizabeth Taylors final marriage.
You are a dissembling troll and as such, unworthy of being dignified with a answer
378. Makes me wonder as old folk tend to vote Tory VS. Labour. Even better for Brown if many old folk die a windfall from IHT!
376. I raised the question because in Scotland the police have lost several drugs supply cases in court because their search warrants contained “technical” errors.
376. I raised the question because in Scotland the police have lost several drugs supply cases in court because their search warrants contained “technical” errors.
374 And poor single people will pay for it.
I am sure there are plenty of right-leaning people who (like me) disapprove of plans to tax us to subsidise those who are better off than us, just because they happen to be married, or because they have children. Those of a libertarian mind would say that tax policy should be neutral and should not discriminate between equally legal lifestyle choices.
381. Elizabeth Taylors - Silly plonker she is a US citizen IIRC!
386. That’s my problem with local income tax - A person maybe living in rented accomadation earning say £25,000 a year but cannot afford the first wrung on the housing ladder but has to subsidise a pensioner on say £12,000 in a house worth £300,000. I think it is immoral!
387 Dame Elizabeth Taylor holds joint UK & US citizenship.
381. You clearly failed!
321 Provided you can prove you are not connected to HSBC I may take your offer on.
381. But you are trying. Desperately trying!
364. I see snowflake is fighting Gordon’s corner in the comments on that article. She seems to be in denial though - this is her rationale for increasing debt to solve the debt problem.
The only cure for debt is to get the economy going again as strong econonies produce strong tax receipts and low welfare payments.
387 -I know I was just illustrating a point.
Cameron will help mend society by giving Joan Collins a cash benefit on her latest marriage.
388 Surely that’s not so much a subsidy, it’s whether you tax income or property. In general we tax income: Council tax also unfairly under-taxes some people eg a family with two adult children living at home all of whom work.
It’s also worth noting that a pensioner on £25K would pay less tax through age allowances and not having to pay NI on a pension.
So now the fallout begins:
http://www.thelondonpaper.com/cs/Satellite/london/news/article/1157156916691?packedargs=suffix%3DArticleController
Perhaps the Home Secretary better put some cash aside for the Met?
394 Whereas Gordon will break society by bankrupting the country and betraying hard fought for liberties.
386 we may have a tax system that is neutral, but we have a benefits system that is anything but neutral on the issue.
This from Iain Dale
Eddie Mair skewered Harriet Harman on PM just now - several times.
Click HERE and then scroll in about 17 minutes. The really good bit starts at 20 minutes. Listen to her squirm when he asks her if she received leaked documents from her lawyer sister. “I was perfectly entitled to receive them. I was Solicitor General,” she shrills. Funny how a court of law didn’t see it that way. Her sister was found guilty of a contempt of court, had to resign as a Judge and had to pay £25,000 court costs.
UPDATE: I am told that Harriet is on Newsnight tonight - with Mr Paxman. I do hope he was listening to PM.
394. I think she will have ensured despite being a british citizen she leaves little to the tax man!
Just out of interest, suppose someone is wealthy but they have sons or daughters who do not make their way in society, is it right for the state to steal money from that may mean they are not dependent on the state?
398 We don’t have a neutral tax system (tax credits for parents with a joint income of £60K is far too generous) but of course I agree with you on the benefits. However, some people seem to want to keep the crap benefits system and counteract it by making the tax system worse.
400. Any tax on death is outrageous, no matter how rich the dead man.
The childless need children just as much as everyone else. We all have a stake in our kids. Even libertarians.
Anyway, here I am in Brussels. It’s an interesting city. The more time I spend here, the more I resent the European Commission. They just do not live in the real world.
I would like to put a question to Nick Palmer, does the £16,000 that the government say is the cut off point for helping hard pressed families in the latest mortgage scheme include an independent repayment vehicle. For instance some individuals may have been hardworking and put their money in ISA’s as a repayment vehicle. Will this count as savings if they had a repayment mortgage? I think it will, what does Nick think?
403. I just hope for your sake your Brussels are not frozen!
399. The situation is different. Her sister clearly broke the law as did Harriet by passing on the documents. The leak in question was of case files about a child welfare case. It is far from clear that Galley or Green broke any law, although Galley is clearly in breach of the Civil Service code and his duty to his employer - a civil matter.
On the other hand, this is an area where the law clearly needs to be reviewed - far too little external scrutiny takes place of these child welfare cases in court. Camilla Cavendish has been raising the issue in her columns in the Times.
Harman is a weasel. She and the rest of Labour just need to get real - they will (sooner or later) be in Opposition - and surely they dont want the government to be able to call in the police every time an Opposition MP gets a leaked document and for the police to then search that MP’s office and files. Yet, that is their present position.
405 - They are getting there. It’s pretty cold. But I am full of Stoemp so I am insulated.
405.I think we are just about to get the snow Martin, it was registering -8 earlier this evening up in Deeside. But the temperature has shot up to a balmy -2. My son was told that only a hard frost would prevent his rugby game going ahead on Sunday morning, at -12 we thought a hard frost was likely.
404 more to the point, why the hell should my taxes subsidise someone who has £15000 in the bank to meet their mortgage? I would suggest someone with £15,000 in savings is perfectly capablae of meeting their own interest payments.
The scheme is supposed to prevent repossession - anyone with £15k in the bank who gets repossessed deserves it for refusing to pay up their dues with cash held on deposit.
406 - Isn’t the reality that they have no position? Many would say that is worse.
403 Whether we need children or not is irrelevant: I don’t believe that people who have them should be supported disproportionately by the state. I certainly do not believe that the rich who have children should have our tax dollars spent on them. Why should Ruth Kelly have child allowance paid for by me? (No I’m not poor but I earn considerably less than she does).
Anyway, enjoy Brussels, I was there on Monday, only fleetingly though. Just about had time for a quick beer in Delirium on my way back to Brussel Zuid, having had an excellent beery weekend in and around Tournai.
409 - should be read as slightly tongue-in-cheek however the point remains - repossession shouldn’t be happening to people with savings - the point is, its after the savings have gone the pressure is on.
356- Sorry, Virginia should actually not only be on the list of swing states, but it is now THE swing state. It should be first on the list.
380. I asked you perfectly reasonable questions as one ex-serviceman to another. You did a Brown PMQ on me. Until you are prepared to answer, I see no reason for me or any other blogger to accept you at face value. Your bluff has been called.
Kevin Maguire Is Mandy’s Parrot
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
Anyone fancy painshopping mandy with his hand puppet (hideous though the concept might be).
391 Provided you can prove you are not connected to HSBC I may take your offer on.
Apart from having recently become an account holder with HSBC, having previously been with Halifax and NatWest (I sure can pick ‘em), I have no other connections with HSBC.
So, are we on?
406. Ken - the law has already been changed to allow anonymised papers from children’s cases to be released to MPs.
402 Of course, if Gordon hadn’t aped Ozzy’s IHT position, he could now be suggesting that the IHT rate might be put up to 95% - unless the elderly “spend spend spend” us out of recession. Or they could hang on to it and ultimately lose it. Perhaps actuaries could work out how long you have to live, how much you have spent in the past year, multiply the two - and expropriate the rest. C’mon Red Gordon - you know you want to!
411 - I kind of agree. But if kids are the people that are going to look after us in old age etc, then we have a major stake in ensuring that they are as well looked after as possible while their little minds are being formed. If that means slipping Ruth Kelly a few extra quid, then so be it in my book.
Belgian beer is too strong for me. I am an IPA man myself - Green King for preference - or German beer if you are talking lagers.
412 The problem then is that you are supporting people who didn’t bother to save, and excluding people who did. Or supporting people with repayment mortgages (who have been paying them off and therefore have no cash savings) and not supporting people with interest-only mortgages (who have been putting money aside to pay them off and therefore have lots in the bank). Lots of moral hazard and unintended consequences there. No I don’t know the answer either.
412. Interesting point that as anyone over £3000 gets less jobseeker allowance if it is income based and nowt over £8000! It is complete bollocks this goverment policy!
IIRC it is £6000 and £16,000 for couples!
If the Police broke the law in searching Green’s office and confiscating files, then does that mean that they are “above the law”?
BTW why are people excusing the police on the grounds that the Serjeant-at-arms didn’t ask for the warrant? It wasn’t her office!
420 indeed - its a minefield
Of course the banks are keen to sign up to anything that bails them out - repossession is not profitable for banks - so once again its the taxpayer underwriting the business of lending.
Meaningless Recession Anecdote number 43:
The agreeable pizzeria under my flat is half empty. This on a dry and crisp midweek evening, 20 days before Christmas.
Last year it would have been heaving every night.
419 After a weekend on the stuff, I was beginning to believe it’s too strong for me as well (we started at the Dubuisson brewery where their most famous product, Bush Amber, is 12% and I don’t think they have anything under 10.5%). But there’s plenty around the 5-6% mark, saison is a style worth trying as it’s probably closest to an English bitter.
Mike, i know you keep on going on about how wonderful you were to invest as safely as possible with HSBC, but ultimately you have to recognise that safety comes at a cost - low interest rates.
420. If people had an equity based saing vehicle to repay the Mortgage that would be a disater cashing it in at the moment! This is a bullshit government spin policy!
Golly,!!!! I pop off for my French class (conversational, not the other type
and its been quite a busy night without me being involved in assisting with the rebuttal of the spin and deceit.. I sense this is the way of things to come with more Govt apologists appearing in various guises.
You would have been more sensible to take advantage of the UK guarantees on savings and spread it about in higher interest accounts.
426 - You are a better man than me. I am working for the next two days so my beer limited. That saison tip is worth exploring though. Cheers!
417. Tim. Giving MPs access is not enough. I’m not sure I’d go as far as Cavendish, but I dont think the present system is balanced. Indeed, the access for MPs would be a minor issue relative to some of her suggestions.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/camilla_cavendish/article4303324.ece
427. Hindsight is a great thing! Any Meduim to large British instiution is not going to go under! That is why i mentioned yorkshire bank! That ain’t going to go under and it is well capitalised IIRC!
My Northern Rock savings account has just cut its interest rates… to 4.24% (and that was available earlier this year, I opened it in April or thereabouts).
Someone made a good point about the Serjeant-at-arms. If her post was degraded to cover security in the House of Commons only, then why did anyone think she had authority to allow searches of MP’s offices?
409&412.When I heard that the banks had not even been into see the Chancellor for a chat about this policy I just rolled my eyes heavenwards. Brown will do and say anything to try and deflect any bad headlines, just listening to the scant *details* of the policy that was obviously dreamed up yesterday to wrong foot the Tories and try and deflect those awful repossession figures. The lessons of the 10p tax con have not been learned.
Oops I did it again is going to be Brown’s tune, as yet again he goes for short term political tactics.
And to hear some journalists saying that the Tories were in danger of over egging the Green arrest, on an antiquated law that carries that can carry a life term while Brown is pulling stunts like this.
I honestly believe the political lobby are in danger of really failing the public because they cannot bring themselves to report just how incompetent, and downright dangerous this PM and his government have become, both politically and economically. I can see a Sterling crisis and a trip to the IMF looming, while politics in general descends into the everyday b*tchfest which was so common between Brown and Blair.
401. Well it’s an interesting debate this one. I applaud your principles on tax, that no one lifestyle should be encouraged fiscally by the tax system. But then there’s the child thing on benefits. I think the State does have a responsibility to ensure children are well looked after, fed and clothed, should a mother not be able to those things herself without help. The argument, in my view, is how we make sure that money gets to the child.
Wow. Harman refuses to express “full confidence” in the Speaker. Sounds like he’s for the guillotine.
429. MTF - It must really stick in your throat!
I haven’t paid any attention today - has Gordon’s flagship Queen’s speech policy unravelled already? Before the day is even out?
I wonder if the problem for Brown is that in the good years people didn’t notice when his “sweeteners” in his budgets were conning them - it just got lost in the disposable income people were building up.
These days he can’t get away with nice sounding announcements - people are responding with the words:
“Show me the money!”
438 Heaven help her when she next stands in for Brown at PMQs!
425. I went up to Westfield last night. It was quiet. The shop assistants took their time with me and even told me in which other shops to find stuff. The girl at the cosmetics counter said things were “very slow, I think they expected more”. I had been there the second Saturdays it opened and it was packed, even all the champagne bars were full. Could have been neophilia.
437 I don’t disagree. But benefits should be targeted to those on (significantly) below average incomes, and should not give perverse incentives e.g. to pop out bastards like shelling peas and then the state pays for a house and a plasma TV.
For those on higher incomes… if we weren’t spending so much on subsidising the middle classes (and those on higher incomes), everyone could pay less tax.
438 - where did this happen?
419. Nice post.
436 - indeed so, Brown is thrashing about - a formidable sight but is it of any long term use to the country?
444 Go to Iain dale’s site he has the link. Eddie Mair on pm on R4
442 - We have a store there - up and down day to day, like our stores elsewhere. There was a huge spike at the beginning but that seems to have tailed off now - there was massive cannibalisation of the West End happening which now seems to have reversed back out on Oxford Street. Still cannibalising Kensington etc but we think that will be a permanent thing. So yes, neophilia, and generally Westfield is doing ok for us.
Retail Week reckons people are leaving their christmas shopping late because (a) Christmas is late in the week this year and (b) they expect retailers to go into panic sale mode in the last few days.
443. The problem with targeting at those on lower incomes is that the marginal tax rates become oppressive - as with WFTC where there is a region with over 90% tax rates. Life just isnt simple - I dont think we should give incentives to teenage single mothers - but I dont want to see homeless single mothers.
441. Yes - fascinatingly messy. Speaker Martin is blaming his minions, and of course the police. Meanwhile Labour are blaming the Speaker, it seems.
What happens if the police turn around and blame Labour?
Whatever the answer, the story is STILL big - number 1 on Google News UK today, and number 2 on the BBC Ten. It will soon qualify as one of those dangerous stories, on the Campbell criterion of longevity.
I think today was especially damaging for the government, because the story simplified. It was getting bogged down in the minutiae of arcane constitutional law, but as someone said prethread, anyone who’s watched the Sweeney or The Bill knows that Plod Needs A Warrant.
And yet they didn’t have one - to raid the House of Commons of all places. Nonetheless, the Speaker just “doffed his hat and waved them in”, as Nick Robinson puts it, very tellingly.
Heh.
444. Harman’s Petrine Denial came from a News at Ten clip of a Paxman interview - so I guess it will be broadcast on Newsnight shortly.
450 - Yes even Nick Robinson almost managed to blame everyone except the Conservatives in his blog. But then he couldn’t help himself in his parting shot.
Oh so close…
443. Yes the subsidy to the middle class is considerable, not that I will be grumbling when I have kids – I always think they look achingly expensive.
Anyway, a great way of getting good state subsidy to help children from poorer families is through early years and childcare stuff. The Government’s Sure Start programme of professional state nurseries has been one of its real successes.
There was a good night on here once where I brought it up and one of the Tory regulars left to the defence of it in the face of some uninformed partisan stuff because he knew it had been a great programme and seen it first hand.
Thankfully, the Tories recognise the programme’s success and importance and have wisely decided to retain it. Gove is a big fan.
443. Yes the subsidy to the middle class is considerable, not that I will be grumbling when I have kids – I always think they look achingly expensive.
Anyway, a great way of getting good state subsidy to help children from poorer families is through early years and childcare stuff. The Government’s Sure Start programme of professional state nurseries has been one of its real successes.
There was a good night on here once where I brought it up and one of the Tory regulars left to the defence of it in the face of some uninformed partisan stuff because he knew it had been a great programme and seen it first hand.
Thankfully, the Tories recognise the programme’s success and importance and have wisely decided to retain it. Gove is a big fan.
WTF - BBC with a former IRA person who is now a Tory? I think it is not main news worthy! If some MP’s had their backgrounds investigated it would be very bad! Especially given the soviet spy case reciently uncovered by the mail!
449 No, it’s not easy. But no party seems to be interested in a long term fix of the tax and benefits system: they never seem to think more than a year ahead. You get 5 years after being elected: I am sure it is not beyond the wit and ken of British politicians to devise a plan that they will start to phase in in Year 1 of a parliament with a view to having it up and running by Year 5 - when hopefully any anomalies and controversies of Year 1 will be forgotten (and in any case the phasing should help to iron out “losers”). If they had any sense, the Tories would have John Redwood working on such a plan at this very moment
Does anyone believe that a Labour Speaker like Martin, or a Labour Sargeant-at-Arms like Ms Pay, would have so cheerily ushered the police in to the Commons - if the cops were raiding a Labour shadow minister’s office, under a Tory administration?
Exactly.
I don’t think the Serjeant-at-arms sounds anything except incompetent. Labour or Conservative doesn’t come into it.
455 - Yeah, it’s a complete non-story. She had a boyfriend in the IRA, and she was a member for a year only - over 25 years ago. When the BBC does an expose on the number of people in the Cabinet who were in radical Communist associations and parties in their youth, then they can come at me with this.
“Queen’s Speech: Is Gordon Brown planning election?”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3545994/Queens-Speech-Is-Gordon-Brown-planning-election.html
My prediction for the next step in the Green saga is the Met releasing the letter from the Cabinet Office alleging national security concerns
If you want to see Harriet Harman get roasted and roast Speaker Michael Martin, watch Newsnight..
I don’t get this. The political wing of the IRA are in government in Northern Ireland, FFS. How come this woman is suddenly public enemy number 2? (Number 1 = Damian Green, of course)
458. Labour = incompetent. Therefore she’s Labour.
450. Yes - definitely 3-2 after today - but could have been a 5-0 hammering if the Tories had played better.
462. Spit roasted? They should make it pay per view.
Wow! Harman
“I support THE OFFICE of Speaker!”
466 - Pay-per-not-view might generate more funds given the participants.
Oh, and BTW, what Chris Galley did does not meet the tests to be misconduct in public office, a conclusion the police could have come to without even questioning him.
More of course on my blog, here;
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
463. Not only that, what’s supposed to be the angle - Tories’ secret IRA sympathies. Bwahahahaha!
Was someone suggesting we abolish the Speakership?
Good grief i have just seen newsnight start and Darlings hair has vanished as quickly as no more boom and bust! But more quickly!
Brown said his scheme is to help “hard working families who demonstrate a willingness to pay”.
But the scheme is aimed at people who have lost their jobs.
If you are out of work, how can you be hard working?
Newsnight badly off message. Mandy’s desperate attempts to distract attention from this morning are forgotten. Labour are very much on the backfoot.
450. Still reckon it’s a complete non-story for anyone but anoraks. Sorry, but just not the sort of thing anyone normal cares a jot about. Most people think all politicians are crooked liars so of course they’re going to get arrested from time to time. Can’t see the fuss. That’s the prevailing attitude. Far more to be concerned about at the moment.
Mind you, the story about the IRA gun runner who repented and has been, er, exposed 30 years later is not exactly earth-shattering either.
468. There are some surprisingly large sub-cultures out there.
Hell, I’d pay a fiver.
475. What is this IRA story? Can’t find it anywhere.
477 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/3543467/Tory-councillor-quits-cabinet-after-former-membership-of-IRA-disclosed.html
Michael Crick really is pathetic
465. No, I’d put it at 4-2, in favour of The Tories.
I think Martin’s performance, followed by Brown’s bumbling speech, put the Tories ahead again - comprehensively (in the narrow terms of Greengate).
Obviously this is the new line, 4 principles…..
Will someone tell Harman to shut up about her ridiculous “principles”
477. A local councillor had an IRA boyfriend thirty years ago. You haven’t missed much.
How difficult is it to understand the principle that the Police need a warrant?
Harman looking shifty.
479. He’s transparent.
OH DEAR!!! TERRIBLE performance by Harman.
lol!!!!
486 - His combover certainly is.
483. Good job she is not on Ken Livinstones team!
Quite amusing actually that the Govt are still going on about their 4 principles but seem to have forgotten one - both Reid and Harman couldn’t remember what the fourth was
I don’t think Paxman can quite believe what he is hearing.
F*cking abysmal. Harman has just blown her leadership bid.
477. Erm, not that I think the story is interesting but it was just a teeny weeny bit more than just having a boyfriend in the IRA. She assisted gun-running for them. Still a totally boring story.
She’s Sharon Shoesmith: ‘the processes were followed’. Yes, but was it the right thing to do? ‘The procedures were followed’.
I glad I never have had to be represented in court by Harman, I would be extremely worried.
They are definitely pinning it on Sergeant at Arms.
Re 492, SeanT “F*cking abysmal. Harman has just blown her leadership bid.”
I don’t know the rest of the Labour party don’t look better!
What is this “principles” line all about?
“We have these principles and they must all be kept in play” wtf?
What about when most of the principles directly contradict each other?
480. Yeah okay, 4-2, I did think that it could be called as that after I posted. But I like your point about the “narrow terms” of Greengate. It is more a game of executive toy snooker rather than a football match.
That was the worst performance by a very senior government minister, on Newsnight, that I have ever seen.
497. They can thereby make it look as if one of the issues is whether MPs are above the law, which no-one believes or wants or is threatening. That makes it look like an ambiguous affair, which it isn’t.
Michael Martin is finished - 3 parties on newsnight, none of them prepared to offer unqualified support
483. Yeah - seen it now. Another non-story.
HH is a F*cking liar! She knows that some members of parliament on the Labour side have sort to bury this! Labour are completly wrong on this and they show they are unfit for government!
Mandy must sit in his coffin weeping tears of rage and frustration whenever Harman gets into a TV Studio. All that work undone.
Why can’t they just stick the boot in and say “no he is a waste of space”.
Hmmm, interesting looking like the Tories are still trying to go nuclear. Getting the speaker doesn’t seem enough and having his right man women resign won’t do.
Harriet Who?
Truly dreadful.
Grieve attacking Jacqui. Grieve and Huhne attacking police for deceiving SAA and then attacking SAA saying she should have taken advice. Paxo attacking Speaker.
505 - I think they’re looking forward to Smith’s statement on Monday, and reckon that Martin will be piling in behind them
501. Speaker Martin has to resign! Who backs him now?
He should resign his seat and go to the Lords!
499. Oh well, it was probably only watched by you and two other people in the country.
All irrelevant, as were all the events in parliament today. No-one’s watching. All we care about is:
1. Will interest rates drop tomorrow
2. How’s the Christmas shopping going
3. How many days before Christmas
4. Why is it so bl*ody cold when it’s supposed to be global warming
Politics is off until after Christmas. No-one’s looking. And this is why Labour’s share of the vote may well not look unhealthy, to confound us anoraks who post on sites like this!
507 - And Harman attacking self, it would appear.
Deary me Grieve complicating the issues again, this isn’t a court of law and you won’t win if you go on this line. KISS principle essential.
I see the dismal Tory rantathon continues
505. No - it’s sensible politics for the Tories not to go for The Speaker - it would look partisan and ranty. He’s damaged enough anyway.
The Speaker and the SAA were just inept.
The Tories need to focus the blame where it really lies - the Met police and their masters, the Labour government.
509 he has to resign , the leader of the House refused to give him her support - either the Speaker, or Harman is now in an untenable position.
514 - They also know that if they let him off the hook he will be permanently in their debt. And a speaker who is in your debt is a powerful weapon in the House of Commons.
Thought Grieve was rubbish in that segment, Hulme a bit better.
510, 513. I see the dismal Labourite drivelling continues.
515 - the Govt WANT Martin to resign. They know they can get no help from him in future, and a Speaker’s resignation will distract attention off themselves.
Off course he should go, but politically it would be very much in the Govt’s favour.
Re 513, Jonathan “I see the dismal Tory rantathon continues :roll:”
If this were 20 years ago and it was Gordon Brown’s collar that was felt for handling leaks you would be rightly outraged as well, as indeed are some honourable members of your party.
516 - That requires a speaker with some honor and morales. The likes of Betty yes, Martin I’m not so sure. He suffers from the same problem as Brown, utter hatred of the Tories and it clouds every judgment.
501. I think it will be a shame if he goes. The whole thing seems ludicrous to me. I could be missing something huge, but as I understand it, it’s still:
1. Met go mad and search Damien Green’s office without a warrant.
2. Speaker knifed for letting the Met in.
Seems to me the Speaker was perhaps guilty of being lax but nobody was ever in any danger, so isn’t it just an unfortunate episode rather than one to start sacking key parliamentarians about?
Seems utterly ridiculous to me. Nobody outside Westminster Village cares either.
Are the New Labour supportes working in shifts?
510 TheGambler is at least a little more subtle. Perhaps being favoured with some personal tuition at the hand of Mandy?
499 It cannot be as bad as Michael Howards effort in the dying days of the Tory government.
517. Grieve is not great. One feels he would wither under sustained Paxmanite fire - he had a friendly interview there, and was still a little unconvincing.
But he was saved by Harriet Harman’s unbelievable trainwreck. WTF was she thinking??? Terrible terrible terrible.
513. Thanks for the contribution.
I think the Tories are in the business of winning an election, getting Smith or Harmann out would help, getting Martin out is irrelevant. They may feel he’s partisan, but he’s likely to go anyway, and even if he doesn’t they won’t be too concerned if they win the next election.
518 Imitation is the sincerest … Seant. If you have nothing to say, go write another Tom Knox book.
519 - If the Speaker resigned, it would give the Government a few headaches. Who do they want to succeed him and how overtly could they intervene in the process? Oh, and there would be a by-election in what would normally be a safe Labour seat.
513 Jonathan, did you see Harriet? Wouldn’t support or disclaim the Speaker, wouldn’t say whether or not the police had, as Speaker stated, misled the SAA, couldn’t remember her 4 principles. A car crash of an interview, not a telegenic perhaps as Michael Howards Paxo moment but a far worse performance.
Newsnight definitely off message tonight. The cozy Tory/Lib Dem/Paxman ganging up on Green story, then picking apart mortgage announcement.
525. I’d say it was that bad. Differently bad, but certainly in that league.
The Milibands and Ballses will have noticed.
521 - I think some Tories confuse Martin’s sometime appearance of incompetence and inarticulate nature with strong pro-Labour bias. There have been plenty of occasions when he’s done the opposition’s business.
He has been consistently good in forcing Govt ministers to come to the House to answer Private Notice Questions (a lot better than Boothroyd). He has had his moments in picking up ministers on not asking questions and not always putting up with backbench barracking.
525 - that was after Labour came to power, during the Tory leadership contest.
527. Only if they felt they could get one in who’d take a harder line on Brown at PMQs etc
526. I didn’t see it tonight, but generally I think Grieve is woeful. His action movie, last night, marked a new low in political broadcasting.
533 - Helped Ozzie out during the recent unpleasantness a couple of times too.
528. I am writing another Tom Knox. Annoying shrivelled lefty gonads like you is my leisure experience.
I thought Grieve was pretty good, and Huhne too. It’s easier for the Lib Dems as they don’t have the charges of partisanship to bear. However, they have come out of this with plenty of credit. It’s a knife edge for the Tories, they can’t seem too partisan, so they have to get the tone right. I thought Grieve’s lawyerly, casual delivery was more effective in that respect than ranting, which may well come off badly.
522. Bobajob, no speaker martin is a Labour placemen! He has failed to be a non partisan & independent speaker. He should go!
The H of C should appoint a backbencher as replacement possibly Ming Campbell.
Hey guys I’ve just managed to escape Gordon Browns stormtroopers!
Whats been happening over the last couple of weeks?
529 - they would just support Haslehurst, who wouldn’t do the Tories any favours.
538 I thought it was I who had annoyed you gonad boy.
530 I have nothing but the greatest respect for my colleague Harriet.
535. That would pale into insignificance next to a ministerial resignation, IMO.
I don’t think it is the IRA connection per se, it is the fact that she is now conservative.
Given ken livingstone’s well documented dalliances with the IRA during his GLC, you would have thought it would cause him more hassle, but it didn’t.
They are both politicians, the only difference is she is tory.
Oh goody more of our money required by the banks.
re 294 he’s a bit late for this year’s Turner prize….
Hang on, Major you are Mark Leckey and I claim my five pounds.
But seriously if I have to hear again new Labour trolls parroting “what would you do?”, I’ll scream.
The answer is simple. The Tories have to do nothing, they’re not in government. All they have to do is think how they’re going to get us out of this mess in 2010, which after another 18 months of Labour will be considerably worse than it is now.
Secondly doing nothing can be a perfectly valid option. It is certainly much to be preferred over doing the wrong thing.
Did Hapless Harriet really have to step up for the Newsnight interview? Seems to me that she has clearly calculated to use recent events to put her in pole position to replace Gordon (I still think before the election is distinctly possible) - but she seems to have had her own Bananman moment (haven’t seen it, but by reports above). She must be kicking herself - “Why didn’t I just keep my ego in check and decline that interview?!?”
540 - The Tories certainly wouldn’t support Ming Campbell.
I see Mandys trolls are out in abundance tonight - desperately trying to earn your money tonight, DollyBots!
Gordon’s ‘Miracle Mortgage Scheme’ has fallen to bits at the first hurdle - what a bunch of idiots. Imagine not talking to the banks about it first. John McFall is talking out of his r3ctum.
Anyone falling asleep on Newsnight now?
Are we to expect Brown sailing around the TV studios tomorrow morning telling us all about his mortgage plan?
545 What a broad church the Conservative party is becoming in these dark days under Labour!
Huhne is impressive, in a sort of horrible hooded-eyed nocturnal predator way. The Libs f*cked up when they went for Cleggy, rather than Huhne.
Huhne would have made an interesting contrast with the fey ballet-dancing Cameron and the arrogant clod-hopping Brown.
548 - She was the one who invented the four principles so she’s the one who has to go and defend them in interviews.
Even if she can’t remember what they all are.
540. I know you are trolling me Martin - but I shall engage you regardless!
I don’t think Martin is biased at all, he always comes across as a fair minded figure, for my money, in the house. His key dislike seems to be bullying and barracking. As Alex above notes, he has come to Ozzie’s rescue once or twice when being mercilessly teased by some of the gruff old Labour bully-boys.
Re 543, Jonathan “530 I have nothing but the greatest respect for my colleague Harriet. :-)”
Its the way you tell ‘em!
A poster on Iain Dale reckons Harriet’s performance is another stage in her leadership bid. I find myself bizarrely inclined to agree. The Newsnight interview was horrible for NuLabour and Mandy, but in fact she was scrupulously careful in what she said, and she didn’t completely lose the plot. In a post Brown world that will come in handy
545. Yes, and he was Mayor of London, whereas she is parish councillor of a village, with special responsibilities for dog shit,.
Re 547, Chris A “Secondly doing nothing can be a perfectly valid option. It is certainly much to be preferred over doing the wrong thing.”
If I promise not to cut your pension entitlement but make new entrants get a money purchase scheme, could I possibly get you to consider signing up
556 - the Conservatives definitely won’t want him to still be there when they’re in Govt though!
558. You mean her campaign platform is “elect me, I will lead the party to as many defeats as Neil Kinnock”? Or “Vote for the weasel”?
554. Huhne lost because he’s in a highly marginal seat. 500 vote majority or something. Very vulnerable to being out at the next GE, too risky to make leader.
558. Wow, hats off to her, if she’s that clever. I fail to see how a disastrously embarrassing, agonisingly faltering TV interview could be seen as “part of a leadership bid”, but maybe her political insights go way beyond mine.
Either way it was VERY watchable. Thanks Hattie.
re 368 tim you mean just like Brown’s promise to give rich old people, like my brother and sister-in-law a nice little wodge to jet off to Madeira. I bet Maggie’s waiting for hers to arrive as well otherwise she’d be on her uppers.
Mrs Fleet has just returned from Parish Council (she is Clerk) where much jollity was had at the arrival of the Community Support Officer (a good sort, who turns up to every meeting to report on the nicking of packets of biscuits etc).
“Christ, who’s been leaking”
“Keith’s the mole”
“Quick, eat the secret documents”
etc
Re 554 SeanT “Huhne is impressive, in a sort of horrible hooded-eyed nocturnal predator way. The Libs f*cked up when they went for Cleggy, rather than Huhne.”
Granted. I could not believe my luck when the Lib dems picked the wrong candidate AGAIN! Priceless. I must remember to congratulate my Lib dem friends on their choice.
563. Yes. Good point - I forgot Huhne’s marginal seat. But isn’t Clegg also slightly vulnerable?
556.
No speaker martin is a Labour placeman! If the commons changed to a Tory majority, what is to stop them having an opposite thinking person? Speaker Martin would have to go! Would he get a peerage post election?
545. I guess the difference is that she repented of the whole thing decades ago, whereas Red Ken continued to flirt with the IRA whilst in office.
She changed her mind a long time ago, which seems fair enough. If we didn’t allow that people change we’d have to hound down people in politics, leaders even, who got up to naughty things at school and uni. Like drugs, for instance
I think there is probably more appetite generally in the media for Tory sleaze than Labour sleaze but I’m not sure why. Perhaps it’s still a throwback to the Back to Basics idea. The idea that politicians should claim to wield a ’sword of truth’ still rankles with journalists, especially when they are such downright liars.
554. Great analysis. I never saw it at the time. But Clegg has been a dismal appointment - the worst Liberal leader in living memory.
As for the other two, we were discussing the other day when we last had such an unedifying, uninspiring pair of leaders in the two proper parties.
Brown is a miserablist, methodistic, social authoritarian bore; Cameron a vacuous, cold-blooded, changeling.
Imagine if we had Boris and Ed Miliband instead.
Most exciting period of British politics for yonks and Paxo is prattling on with Americans. The election is over, no more betting opportunities, move on. Yawn I find US politics so boring!
re 455 I’d consider that to be a good news story for the Tories. Who was it after all who started the peace process?
Hapless Harriet could yet unleash her secret weapon - hubby! Perhaps Dromey could tell us all what Gordon really knew about the source of Labour’s funding…..then, step forward his missus to lead Labour to glory.
If she became Leader, she would right in one sense - all the men would indeed be heading to the airport. But in a Bangkok sit-in stylee - until she resigned and her party was disbanded.
568. Clegg’s got a majority of about 8000 or so. Safe enough I think.
560 - why is everyone so obsessed with Money Purchase schemes? I just don’t understand why people think that individuals should take the risk rather than the employers. Is it really justified for people who put the same amounts in over their lifetime to end up with significantly different pension sums, simply because of the years in which they are born and subsequently retire?
The Govt should be finding ways to get employers returning to salary linked schemes - basically by changing the accounting rules.
The fundamental reason for the generosity of public sector schemes is the high contribution rates to fund them. Under money purchase schemes they will still be significantly more generous. You’re also getting onto very dangerous ground if you transfer to money-purchase schemes because it will undermine the whole basis of public sector pay agreements.
Well well, Daily Rant giving government thumbs up again. Dacre back from hols or something?
Front page
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Thursdays-National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-041208/Media-Gallery/200812115172108?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15172108_Thursdays_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_041208__
571 - You’re letting your own prejudices show there. David Cameron is a very impressive politician indeed. The Tories’ problem is not its leader, it is the weakness of the back-up.
You obviously aren’t old enough to remember Jeremy Thorpe. Being accused of attempted murder does put a dampener on his leader ratings, I think you’d agree.
On the other hand, it’s hard to disagree with your analysis of Gordon Brown.
571. But Kennedy and Ashdown were both very good leaders, with big political presence and a lot of cross-party respect; it’s pretty hard on Clegg to follow them.
Front pages
575. Unless Jeremy Clarkson stands …
re 499 Sean how could you forget any of Bob Ainsworth’s shockers. Harman wasn’t even in the same league.
What is Sarah Brown doing on the front of the Mail wearing a SEVEN POUND beret? Doesn’t she know we have to spend our way to victory? Does she not speak to her husband??
581-Again:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Thursdays-National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-041208/Media-Gallery/200812115172108?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15172108_Thursdays_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_041208__
578-Sorry!Did not see your post.
571. Yes, if Obama thinks Cameron is “lightweight”, he must think Nick Clegg (if he ever considers him) consists entirely of helium, sea-spume and dental floss.
Clegg’s a nice guy, but he’s one of life’s more pleasant estate agents, or more conscience-stricken merchant bankers, rather than a political leader. He lacks anything like the necessary cullions and ruthlessness.
Huhne, by contrast, has the tough, robust, self-possessed, rather wily quality that might have made him a good third party leader.
579 - I think that is spot on, the Tories are ahead because of Cameron, but not out of sight, because of the especially the old Tory still hanging around (especially the ones like Redwood putting his foot in it) and the fear of what they might get up to in power.
Clegg suffers because he looks and sounds at fist glance like a poor knock off Cameron. He then doesn’t help himself with poor commons performances in things like PMQ’s. However, given a one on one tv opportunity he does much better and manages to show some clear water from just being another posh bloke “that is a Tory isn’t he”.
I presume these front pages were all printed before the lenders came out and said ‘what the hell? Nobody asked us!’?
587 I think there may have been a little loss in translation. Obama was actually complimenting Cameron on his new diet. Somehow, “Hey, he’s lost weight!” became….
579. Yeah, too young to remember Thorpe, but looked it up after Mike brought him up last time I said that about Clegg.
Cameron I had warmed to for a while, but he has been entirely bereft of warmth, or indeed ideas, on the economy. Still think he will win easily though.
579. Re. Cameron, he is? Cameron is good at times, but I’m not sure he is an A lister in the way Blair or Thatcher were. Just personal opinion, mind.
Shame really that William Hague was the right man at the wrong time. Very gifted.
I am going to develop a new greengate toilet code. whenever I need a pee i will “induce a leak” and whenever i need the other kind “I will be off to induce a mole”
589 - Don’t want to spoil the narrative with small details like that
To be fair I think Newsnight gave a decent assessment of the proposal.
This is thorougly mean spirited, beneath me, but a deliciously amusing fact nonetheless.
Seant is currently losing out badly in the bargain basement battle of the authors on Amazon. His ‘opless magnus “Millions of Women…” (in the top 124,649) is currently being thrashed by that great work the Politcal Punter (top 47,152). Sadly both are being beaten by a hardback, “Wartime Courage” written by a certain G. Brown currently in the top 35,422.
589. It’ll work out well for the government if they don’t print ‘Mortgage deal unravels’ headlines on Friday, which they probably won’t as there will be new stories. Good news management from Labour.
I listened to Brown carefully. He said defer PART of their mortgage payments. ..Unless I misheard this is being spun for all its worth and isnt the giveaway it sounds.
cor the picture on the front page of the telegraph is a cracker!
585 Good headlines with regard to the mortgage scheme - shame it’s all rubbish, and is unravelling already. Never mind.
Still it will appeal to Middle England for about one day, until they read the small print and realise it will help 9000 people defer a fraction of their interest payments, increase their debts and help the Banks make enough more money out of them. Nice one Gordon!
563. Corporeal - Chris Huhne is not going to lose Eastleigh! Does anybody want a bet?
595. about as amusing as inducing a mole really
568 Why should it be a huge problem if the leader loses his seat? They’ll just get an MP kicked upstairs in the next batch of “working peers” and hey presto a bye election.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziTrlKAkn94
Bumbling Bob Ainsworth at his best. Gets going at about 1:45 in.
599 - Should be good for the banks really. Get to put off their repossessions at no cost until house prices start to recover!
Arhh a bit of BoJo doing history. Regardless of his hapless approach to politics, I have to say that have an Boris doing history programs is actually a big plus, got me watching for starters. Wish my history teacher at school made it as interesting.
Oh lordy me. The Hate Mail front page must be giving Mand and Campbell orgasms. That’s a very competitive news cycle won from the bully pulpit.
I doubt it’ll happen, nothing more than gossip. I think Clegg’s underrated, I’d place him ahead of Ming in recent times. Luntz did show him coming across well with the voters so I have hope for his potential at least.
A tip for the future would be Alastair Carmichael, I’ve heard good things about him, and he resigned from Home Affairs to vote in favour of a Lisbon treaty referendum. One to watch I think.
598 - Jill Pays looks like a really scary woman. I’m amazed the police plucked up the courage to ask the question. Must have done it over the phone!
606 - Setting them up for a fall if the whole thing unravels.
604. It’s looking like a very clever piece of policy making, on first glance. Cue numerous responses…
608 Maybe they wore welders masks?
606 - Dacre must have been on vacation the last week, back now that’s for certain. Accuse the government as having created a police state for 5 days, but now is all forgiven as they are going to pay your mortgage for 2 years. Spot of bribery, can’t beat it.
609. That is true…
610 Is that what you charge Mandy for your services - a bob?
Good headlines for Labour.
Is Bob Ainsworth real? And what on EARTH is that on his head?
THis’ll surely just add to cameron’s ’short term political headlines over long term measures’ and ’stop treating the public as fools’ narative if this package does fall through. I’d expect if it does it’ll be the last straw for many of the papers. Brown has taken them for to many rides!!!
614. What an unpleasant thought!
OK, my comments on the various bits and pieces that have happened while I’ve been under house arrest, with all my phone and internet access cut off, while Browns stormstroopers and secret police interogate me 24/7 and find out exactly WHY I don’t support him;
1. PBR - £1Trillion of public debt in the next couple of years! Yes, Brown is completely insane and deranged, but theres a method in his madness. He has just spent the next Conservative governments budget. Cameron is facing the prospect of a small majority, a relatively weak cabinet and now bankrupt public finances which will have to lead to swinging tax rises and public service cuts. Who would relish that prospect?
Onew other point, George Osborne was excellent in his PBR response. I’m sorry I ever doubted him, but he has certainly got my full support now.
2. Opinion Poll Confusion - Is the Tory lead 1% or 15%? ICM or ComRes? IMO its a no brainer. ICM are tried and tested and are the nations most solid pollster. Labour supporters are heading for a fall if they pin their hopes on ComRes’s 1%.
3. Greengate - What can I say that hasen’t already been said? Just an astonishing moment in British political history and a moment when the police and government took leave of their senses. We all know that Brown is a complete nutter, but has his madness now infected the entire government and metropolton police? This disaster can’t go without someone getting the sack and I personally think the positions of Jackie Smith and Speaker Martin are untennable.
Ever since Mandy returned Labour have been winning the media narrative …
Take note oh ye fellow punters.
Re 576 Alex “560 - why is everyone so obsessed with Money Purchase schemes? I just don’t understand why people think that individuals should take the risk rather than the employers. Is it really justified for people who put the same amounts in over their lifetime to end up with significantly different pension sums, simply because of the years in which they are born and subsequently retire?”
Because that is life. That said the Conservatives propose allowing some flexibility so that you don’t have to cash in your pension at the bottom of the market, you can wait.
“The Govt should be finding ways to get employers returning to salary linked schemes - basically by changing the accounting rules.”
We are where we are on final salary pensions precisely because of this governments actions in increasing the tax on pensions, in the sense that they removed the exemptions from dividend income that had existed before which cost £5 billion a year to the pension pot though is in reality much larger as it has a cumulative compound effect.
“The fundamental reason for the generosity of public sector schemes is the high contribution rates to fund them. Under money purchase schemes they will still be significantly more generous. You’re also getting onto very dangerous ground if you transfer to money-purchase schemes because it will undermine the whole basis of public sector pay agreements.”
Actually this years pension payments are met by this years tax as I understand it, there are no savings for this.
595. Modest prevents me from mentioning that my book
WENT TO NUMBER SIX ON THE AMAZON BESTSELLER LIST, AND STAYED THERE FOR TWO WEEKS
whereas - I’m just guessing here! - the magnum opuseses of Messrs Brown and Smithson probably didn’t trouble the top 100. Or maybe even the top 200.
Not that I’m gloating. Writing is my job, whereas its - self-evidently - just a “hobby” for Brown. And a badly-executed one, at that.
I will also earn more than the prime minister this year. That’s a VERY strange thought. His pension is better than mine, though.
619. It is astounding what Mandelson’s return has done for the Government. It’s got back its fight.
619. Total total bollocks.
Mandelson’s attack on the tories, seen as very clever this morning, has all but dissapeared by tonight. Harman won’t back the speaker, damning him with faint praise by supporting the speakers office. The police feel stabbed in the back by the speakers denial of all knowledge, Brown has shown again he can’t deal with quick questions (especially his ‘I notice they don’t want to talk about the economy’ line, veyr out of step as we’ve already had weeks of it) and now we have something very interesting. The police investigation into Green will have to report or be dropped, this isn’t like an old fiasco that labour could bury, there has to be a conclusion to it. Either Green was guilty and they have evidence, or they have no evidence and he was arrested to try and get some.
610. Bad policy (dependent on house price trajectory) and on details (feckless borrowers). Potential losses for borrowers and lenders made much greater, little direct cost to the government, but potentially requires more capital for banks. All three parties seem to be in favour and Vince Cable is claiming authorship - which doesnt alter my view that it is a piece of steaming dog doo. It will impact more than the 75,000 repossessions - everyone who is behind and reschedules COULD benefit, which runs into the 100,000s. Won’t actually mean much for most of them, but still should be milked for political gain. Not a good policy, but one that appeals. It wont do much for house prices - which are set at the margin and where distressed sellers will still exist, but might help sentiment a tiny bit. Wont prevent many repossessions in the medium term and will make a lot of borrowers and lenders worse off (delay selling house today, falls 15% from here, obviously bad.)
600. No, because I think he’ll probably hold it aswell, at least the activist I met from up there seemed very confident of an increased majority next time. But not everyone had the benefit of that info and just knew of the raw numbers. But given how close it was I’d say it’s fair to say Huhne lost it on having a small majority.
619 - “What is a man profited, though he gain the world, if he lose his life? much less if he lose his soul?” Proverbs
619. Not really, the PBR went down very badly in the papers, this Green scandal has gone down badly, even the intervention from him this morning was blown out of the water by the afternoon. The tories have gone from being accused of overplaying their hand, to judging it completely right in a few hours.
619. The PBR was a f*cking media disaster. Even the most loyal Labourites would confess that. Mandy is good, but he’s not that good.
The PBR tanked; Labour lost the media narrative about two weeks ago. They will get it back in time, of course.
623. It’s not bollocks Sean, and you know it. Mandelson and Campbell’s return has reinvigorated the Government’s media operation.
The Govt has got its fight back. No question.
I finally caught the mole which has been destroying my back lawn with a tunnel trap;
http://www.pestfreehome.co.uk/ecomole-trap-duffus_details.htm
This device basically is a garrotte. I wonder if Gordon would be interested in it?
619 Yes, that would explain why Greengate has been grabbing healines since Thursday and is still leading Newsnight and News at Ten tonight.
Mandy’s back, and at the top of his game. Not.
619 Mandy’s antics won’t save Labour a single seat. He and Gordon can slog it out in the battle of the autobiographies, blaming each other for Labour’s upcoming crushing defeat.
630. It’s failed spectacularly so far today, that chink of light you were going on about this morning seems to have dissapeared, if it ever existed. All Mandelsons intervention has done is…well…erm…
629. The PBR might just go down as a wobble, when we look back…
536.You are joking bobajob! What about Brown’s performances at the despatch box, or HH tonight. And lets not forget Prescott punching a protesters or sticking two fingers up as he walked past some SNP supporters.
Or the Walter Wolfgang incident.
He read out the most partisan and snotty letter from a Home Secretary who had been completely incompetent over the handling of a leak enquiry which set the whole political car crash in motion. Grieve had seen one of his colleagues banged up for 9 hours and his home and places of work searched by the police in the full glare of the media.
Shame on him for deriding that pathetic letter.
634. I looked that way for a while, I’ll admit, but have you seen the front pages?
621 What I don’t get about you Sean is while you have obvious talent with English, you waste so much of it dishing out elegant bile (I like that phrase) in this place.
You have talent, you could write a truely great book if you put your mind to it. I am indulging your ego I know, but you are interesting.
I think the truth is Campbell & Mandy are good, very good and well connected, but they aren’t miracle workers. Today, again Brown was horribly exposed and so was the speaker. The reason the media switches against Labour after a while, is that that it is always a matter of time before Brown makes some big mistake (something that Blair and Cameron are very good at avoiding).
647. Yes, they all talk about the mortgage help, but those aren’t the final pages. As the scheme gets picked apart, just like the PBR was, there will be changes to them. Plus although the Green afair has died down a bit, it will still rumble on while the investigation continues and while the government refuses to back the speaker.
620 - No, Local Govt schemes are funded. I have been told on here by those that know that other schemes involve notional contributions on the basis that schemes are funded - so yes the pensions are ultimately paid out of taxes at the time, but money is not spent now to compensate.
It is a myth that the £5billion dividend change was the reason for the decline of salary related schemes. The main cause I believe was accounting changes which meant (after the dot com market crash) that Private Companies had to show huge liabilities on their balance sheets.
It is far more appropriate for employers to bear the risk (upside or downside) because they (provided accounting changes are made) are better placed than individuals to withstand shifts in investments, and if necessary can adjust their contribution rates to correct for short to medium term imbalances. If we want people to invest in pensions then we’ve got to give them certainty that they will be worth it. That just can’t happen in Money Purchase schemes.
There is no objective reason for Money Purchase schemes being cheaper to salary related schemes - it just depends on the terms of the scheme. The only reason for the switch is that the companies don’t want to account for liabilities.
636. The Prescott punch was a high in political broadcasting, as was Wolfgang!
The Grieve action movie was just devoid of any TV stardust whatsoever.
637 BTW what’s his mate Sexy Dossier Campbell up to? Haven’t seen much of him recently. Is he still knocking out articles for Razzle and eyeing up the drinks cabinet?
Another element of the mortgage package is that you cannot have savings more than £16k. Do not know how this will impact in the wider economy but many of the redundancy plus early reirement lump sums I saw before I retired were well in excess of this figure, even for manual workers.
Yes, pay down the mortgage to benefit under the package but then have less than hoped for to enjoy retirement. Just the kind of dilemma that you want to avoid.
642. Perhaps, but it wasn’t the game changer you tried to claim, neither was Mandelson. It’s taken labour injecting a whole load more of cash to change the subject even slightly, how that will work out we don’t know. The entire subject of Greengate has become toxic for them, despite Mandy’s best efforts that hasn’t changed.
637. I agree that Mandy has reinvigorated the government attack. Sadly, his only tactic appears to be that infantry classic, Fire and Motion. In essence you start shooting (at anything) so the enemy ducks. Meanwhile you move position. Repeat ad infinitum…
It can be successful, but it’s not subtle, and you can be outflanked if the enemy is waiting.
3 years ago, the tories were not ready. Now they might be
If the Govt wanted they could reduce the cost of public sector schemes at a stroke - they could just take the current terms of payment and just, say, halve them!
Talking about Money Purchase schemes as a way of saving money is a complete red-herring!
646 - Also the tactic is less effective when you have to drag around a dead weight each time you move.
Forget “nothing worse than a woman scorned”! Try a newspaper that has provided a glowing endorsement for a scheme that then goes tits up before the next edition goes to press. Expect their revised opinions to be damning in the extreme….
Re 641 Alex “It is a myth that the £5billion dividend change was the reason for the decline of salary related schemes. The main cause I believe was accounting changes which meant (after the dot com market crash) that Private Companies had to show huge liabilities on their balance sheets.”
It may well be the case that having to show the liability on the balance sheet did for it, but the liability would have been much less had the £5 billion not been taken out.
As for public sector pensions, I hear what you say, but the long term issue is that tomorrows taxes will pay tomorrows pensions not contribute to the day after tomorrows pensions. The liability is growing as it is with the state pension which works the same way.
“There is no objective reason for Money Purchase schemes being cheaper to salary related schemes - it just depends on the terms of the scheme. The only reason for the switch is that the companies don’t want to account for liabilities.”
They aren’t, you just cap what the liabilities to the scheme are.
The other real problem with private pensions is that they are means tested to irrelevance which is why a lot of people these days can’t be bothered.
I don’t recall saying the video would be a game changer. I just thought it might even the field by making the Tories look like squealers. I still think the pathetic video gave the whole thing a humdrum, slightly farcical British sitcom quality, when people’s minds were beginning to fantasise about jackboots and Stazi.
Anyway, the day ends with Labour winning the news cycle with the repossessions policy. I’m not sure it’s unravelling either. The main point of attack against it is that only a few thousand will probably end up use it. OK, therefore its a fairly cheap, yet reassuring, safety net.
new thread ?
638. Er, thanks. lol.
I’d love to write a great book, of course, should I be blessed with the talent to do so (who knows?). So far, I like to think I’ve written a minor classic of a memoir, and a cracking thriller, after some nicely reviewed literary fiction. But no, I’ve never written a *great* book.
But to do that you need to dedicate ten years of your life to one novel. Yikes. Hmp. Now I’m depressed. Thanks.
Maybe one day the thriller will be seen as a great book “within the genre”, the way Jaws or Star Wars are now seen as *great* movies, though dismissed as popcorn fodder at the time.
That’s my big hope, anyhow. Otherwise my life is wasted. *sob*
526. Corporeal - Huhne lost it because there was a 4 week postal ballot period and many less politically savvy LD members voted early in this period as urged to do so by Paddy Ashdown and Shirley Williams. Also a signicant number of votes that were postmarked before the election closing date but arrived after it were not accepted. Chris Huhne could well have won with these votes because of the momentum he had in the final stages of the campaign. IMO very few voters indeed would have had their decision influenced by the size of Chris Huhne’s majority.
Apparently, Benedict, the Govt have already significantly reduced the cost of the Civil Service scheme by shifting from a pension based on final salary, to one based on average salary.
If they wanted they could do the same in Local Govt and elsewhere. The unions also wouldn’t necessarily automatically kick up a huge fuss (especially if it were for new entrants only) because the main people who would lose out are those who end up on fairly high salaries.
Your average poorly paid Local Govt worker, who stays at the same level throughout their life would hardly lose anything.
597. Yes, good spot. Not sure who said it on one of the News programmes but I think the way it’s going to work is as follows:
- In a two earner household, if one person loses their job but the family can still pay some of the mortgage then they are the sort who will qualify for this scheme.
- If it’s a one earner household and the earner loses their job and can’t find another one and has no chance of making reasonable payments, they won’t qualify for the scheme.
The way the papers are reporting it is as if there will be no repossessions next year. That’s rubbish - if Margaret Beckett is right there will be 66,000 instead of 75,000 (if CML forecast is correct).
650 I believe the figure was £5.3m per annum. If compounded at the then rate of return used by the acturies (circa 6¼%)over a 40 year working life time the total removed from pension funds by this taxation alone comes to in excess of £750bn.
Not only is that a lot of money even today, it was infact a little more the total investment of all the funded pension schemes in 1997. This bit of mathematics explains why future pensions will be much lower than people expect.
655 “Significantly reduced” is a bit of an exaggeration, as it only applies to new Civil Servants appointed after July 2007. Existing Civil Servants stay on their old scheme. However it has stopped the costs going up - if you believe that the employers contributions represent a true estimate of the cost. In fact IIRC those contributions will go down in April 2009, although the contributions for someone on a mid-level salary will still be over 20% (the employee pays 3.5%).
656. All it will take is Northern Rock to repossess a few homes this month (just in time for Christmas)…
658 - Apologies Phil - I was (mis)quoting you from the conversation we had the other day.
Civil Servants should have to pay more - that they only pay 3.5% whilst those in local Govt have to pay up to 7% is ridiculous.
653 “Otherwise my life is wasted. *sob*”
Fret not, SeanT. All lives are wasted.
646. I think Mandy is far more into insurgency than that. Not for him going at it from the front …
Seriously, the man is one of the people I least like in all my time studying politics, but I admire his nous. Anyone who can be sacked twice and come back to tweak the reins of power deserves to be treated seriously. He has his fingers in many pies.
Actually, I don’t think the PBR did tank. The VAT cut looked amazing if you were out shopping. The emphasis there is on ‘looked’. Retailers used it as a sales incentive, thus giving Labour free advertising to millions.
Likewise, today they come out smelling of roses. And that’s the point. SeanT might have scored the parliamentary shenanigans 4-2 or 3-2 in his club colours, but the test is how it plays out in the country. The papers are loaded with headlines to suit Labour.
They have a mountain to climb, but I’m not placing my bets against them at the moment. With Mandy around they do indeed have a return to a lot of spunk.
Re 655 Alex, your points are noted. We will have to see how the liabilities look in a year or two.
re 661 the NHS contributions have just increased to 7% as well.
626 Huhne mainly lost it on the uncounted postal votes actually (from the Liverpool area).
NeoConservative Bush supports telephone surveillance without a warrant; no surprise that NeoConservative Brown isn’t bothered by police searching without a warrant either.
Re 657, Many thanks for adding that up. A massive hit on our savings culture, which also explains why our banks have to borrow so much from abroad which is less forthcoming now.
654 Sorry, Goupillon - there before me! I note my last post - number of the beast. Rarely get as high number as that on a thread!
Theres no doubt Mandy has got Labour back to their old ways; lies, manipulation, spreading poision around the place and infecting everything that comes in its path. So yeah, well done Mandy, great to have you back!
662. Thanks PtP. Very true! You’ve cheered me up. I think all you should do as a writer is try and amuse, entertain, or move people - preferably all three - and let literary immortality look after itself.
Greatness is bestowed by posterity: and by then you’re dead anyway, so who cares.
Still be nice to win the Nobel though.
Re 665 Chris A “re 661 the NHS contributions have just increased to 7% as well.”
I note that you refused to answer my earlier question
664 - Thanks Benedict. I just think Money Purchase schemes seem to be fundamentally unjust on principle, and bad for encouraging people to make provision. If Public Sector pensions are too expensive then the priority should be to reduce their cost through changing their terms (and that should mean reducing the ultimate payout NOT extending the retirement age any further - forcing people to go to 65 as it is is fundamentally bad for organisations IMO because of the implied reduction in turnover of top management that will follow).
639.”I think the truth is Campbell & Mandy are good, very good and well connected, but they aren’t miracle workers.”
I think this supposed sorting out of the Downing Street media operation with Mandelson and Campbell supposedly giving it a steady hand is a complete mirage.
Neither are doing the job 24/7, and it shows daily that their input is haphazard and more along the lines of advice than actually hands on stewardship. Remember, its still Brown and his cabal handling things day to day, hence all the media disasters carried out in the most cack handed way. Another myth in the making though.
And Mandelson, did anyone really think he was helping Gordon out with the Moses quote? Nah, Mandelson is trying to rescue New Labour which he help conceive before Brown trashes it and the Labour party’s electoral chances for the next 20 years. He already has Purnell lined up as the best of a bad job lot to continue to carry the flag after Brown has gone.
Mandelson and Brown are too alike, they will always put themselves first before others, it will end in tears.
The ditherer hid in the bunker for nearly five days over the Green affair, he has put up every shield possible, and his woeful performance today as PM shows you that you cannot make a silk purse out of pigs ear. This ill thought out repossession policy is pure Brown as well.
656 Either it will unravel in the newspapers or in action.
Then ll the Torie need to do is make a party-political broadcast
copiling interviews with people who feel the Govt has broken its
promis to them.
E.g. Fade in to Mail headline “Mortgages of 400k gteed”. Voceover:
“we
thought the government was going to help us but they didn’t ..” etc
Re 673, Alex. Points noted again as well.
I note that you are ageist as well as denying the reality that we need people to work a higher proportion of their working life than they do at the moment.
Front pages good for Labour, that probably means a poll coming out saturday then. Yougov have been very friendly on timing in recent months for Labour. We will see.
The main weakness, in principle, in the local Govt scheme, for example, is that regardless of your salary (and therefore contributions) over your working life, if you can manage to secure a big hike in salary in the years before retirement then you will benefit. I’m sure there’s all sorts of favours done by senior management to allow that to happen.
Within our district council, the whole of the council tax and more for three years (this,next and the one after) is accounted for solely by the increase in the employer contributions to the Local Government Pension Fund.
Can’t remember the precise figures but the employer contribution rate is increasing from around 14% to more like 22%. You end up paying more for their pension whilst yours goes down!!
Re 678, Alex, but do we know how much of that happens?
BTW, Good night all.. I have some things to do.
650 Bendict - please desist from referring to Brown’s dividend grab as costing “£5 billion”. It started out costing the private sector pension industry approximately this amount PER ANNUM (two important latin words need to be included there please note) shortly after Labour came to power in 1997. Eleven years later, as a result of earnings inflation and the compounding effect on the lost income over this period of time, the present day cost is approximately £12.5 billion per annum and rising. The cumulative cost to date is therefore approaching £100 billion, that’s £100,000,000,000! This Government has thus completely wrecked the pension provisions of millions of private sector employees as well as the wider economy and all for what?
Oh look more powers for Gordon’s burgeoning police state http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-big-brother-statendashby-stealth-1050576.html
676 - It’s nothing to do with ageism at all Ben. It’s just a fact that if you believe that some degree of senior management turnover is desirable in an organisation, it becomes less likely if people go on for longer. Nothing to do with older people not being up to the job. Especially in the Public Sector where it’s very difficult to move people aside, without giving them early retirement, which just destroys the whole point!
I see the Indy didn’t go with the mortgage story on the front page, and on their website it is well down.
656.”The way the papers are reporting it is as if there will be no repossessions next year. That’s rubbish - if Margaret Beckett is right there will be 66,000 instead of 75,000 (if CML forecast is correct).”
Brown presented it in a very dishonest way today, he will now try and bounce the Banks into agreeing retrospectively by hoping that if it doesn’t work they will be blamed while he was trying to help.
But, as you say, the numbers who will think that they will benefit far outweigh those that will actually qualify. 10p tax con all over again. Bad headlines on the night, forgotten for nearly a year, and then it blew up in his face.
His shameful behaviour just gets worse.
Steve Richards
“The Speaker’s statement to the Commons was the event that shed light after several days in which there has been a lot of shouting in the dark. In effect, he confirmed that parts of the Metropolitan Police are literally out of control. Seemingly accountable to no elected body in relation to “operational procedures”, they appear to be able to act more or less in any way they want. We now know that officers entered Green’s office in Parliament without a warrant and without making it clear to the Serjeant-at-Arms that she was not compelled to allow them access.
586. Shocking! How did we get to this!
New thread: Gord wins the headline war
654. When it’s that close you can ascribe it to a lot of little things. I can at least say that my vote was partially impacted by the size of Huhne’s majority, and I know at least three others similarly considered it an important point. Take that for whatever it’s worth.
I’ll repeat my tip on Carmichael though, I think he can go far. At least in the Lib Dems.