A year in the life of the 13% pair - John and Barack
November 4th, 2008
How the battle shaped up
It’s quite a shock, looking at the chart showing the implied probabilities of becoming president, that just a year ago the aggregate chance of their success as rated by UK punters was put at a paltry 13%. The final play-off on November 4th 2008, as we were all the pundits were telling us at the time, was going to be between Hilary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.
Both McCain and Obama were helped enormously by massive strategic errors by the front runners in their parties. Giuliani blew it all by deciding not to fight the earlier state and leave everything until Super Tuesday in February. By then his hopes were dead. Clinton was damaged, probably irrevocably, by having one of her key aides not appreciate that the Democratic party battle was based on proportionality in each primary - not winner takes all - and all planning was based accordingly.
The chart shows the changing fortunes from McCain’s from the despair of November and December 2007 to the New Hampshire primary when everything seemed possible again. Obama started from a higher point a year ago but it was only after Super Tuesday in early February when the mathematical hopelessness of Hillary Clinton’s position became apparent that his position began to soar.
My main regret was in not taking the advice of many on the site and getting on McCain early enough for the nomination. I could never see how someone that old could make it.
As we come to the end I hope that those of you who are gamblers have had a profitable election and that PB has played a part in adding to your enjoyment. You have made it great for me and we have been especially fortunate to have been joined by a number of astute observers from the US and elsewhere who have added enormously to our insights.
In a couple of hours I’ll be heading off for London to spend election night with other regulars from the site at the get-together at a betting trading floor near Kings Cross. Thanks to Morus and others for making that happen.
Best of luck tonight. Tomorrow the focus is on Glenrothes!!!
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I don’t belive it!
FPT:
461. I’m not sure that’s true.
I believe some tests of Sephardic Jews, Ethiopian Jews etc have shown them with an IQ lower than the “global” average - and therefore MUCH lower than the Ashkenazim average IQ of approximately 115.
But I am prepared to be proved wrong, or indeed ignored on this highly controversial topic.
Jews are so fascinating though. When I was last in Israel a few months ago a member of the government told me this:
“Jews were 10 percent of the population of the Roman Empire. If today they were the same proportion of the world’s population that they were then, they would number 200 million. They number 13 million.”
So no matter how smart they are, they’ve been outsmarted by history in the cruellest way.
10% of the population of the Roman Empire, Sean? I don’t believe that either…
3. Sounds peculiarly high - source please.
Obama 349, Mc Cain 189. Smallest Obama maj. Virginia
2. This of course leaves open the question of ‘what is a Jew?’. Ethnic or religious definition, what fraction of bloodline counts etc.
470 FPT:
If the US constitution is clear on a right to privacy, why do many originalists, (e.g. Robert Bork), deny that there is any general ‘right to privacy’ in the constitution, and attack the Griswold vs Connecticut decision establishing this right?
6. was your mother jewish?
yes you are a jew
no you are not a jew….
3,4:
http://www.sephardicgen.com/popul.htm
Ouch!
Virginia Voting: Broken Machines, No Paper Ballots
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/04/virginia-voting-broken-ma_n_140897.html
I also think 10% is an enormous overestimate. Also, shouldn’t the correct figure for the corresponding proportion of the current world population be 600 million?
3,4:
http://tinyurl.com/6xsdtn
My Man Karl Rove:
…electoral map of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain…
http://rove.com/election
8. So someone with a Jewish mother and a non-Jewish father is Jewish, but someone with a Jewish father and a non-Jewish mother isn’t? Sounds a peculiar and arbitrary definition.
12. No proper source or attribution of the 10% estimate identified there, sorry Sean. They could have got the figure from anywhere.
The beebs Justin Webb starts to panic
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/justinwebb/2008/11/an_elusive_surge.html
6: surely then all humans are Jews, or all humans or not Jews, according to whether the common ancestor was Jewish?
and yes, you can say that there were no Jews back then, but isn’t that the point? At some point we have arbitrarily defined people as Jews or non-Jews (surely to some extent self-definition) so it seems silly not to allow this now. So why can’t you can be a Jew even if your mother isn’t, or vice versa.
16- Wouldnt most people vote after they leave work?
16 - He just needs to keep the story going, and at the end of the day it suits the Obama camp to keep feeding that there aren’t as many voters as they expect to encourage turnout.
18. That depends whether they work or not.
Stars & Stripes’s favorite pundit predicts:
390 EV for The One
–Markos Moulitas
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/election-predictions-pund_n_140149.html
15. lol. What do you want me to do, bring the actual Imperial census records to the pb party tonight?
I’ve given you two sources.
Here’s another:
http://www.rishon-rishon.com/archives/094082.php
FWIW another source I’ve just read puts the figure at 7-9% of the population of the Empire, according to the census of Claudius; various other sources claim anything from 2% to 20% of Romans were “Jewish”.
All seem to agree that the surprisingly high proportion was mainly due to Conversion. Which makes sense: eastern faiths like Mithraism, and Judaism, were very popular at one point in the Roman Empire.
And then along came Christianity.
16. Webb has been talking up McCain’s chances for months.
14. Yes, and it is.
You can convert, but they dont encourage converts, and you have to work incredibly hard to pass, probably not far off degree level study.
OT Does anyone know how it is going in Glenrothes ?
Last Invitation: Anyone who is in London, and would like to come and watch the results come in and follow the markets with some of the PB.com crowd and some free drinks, please drop me an e-mail at morus1516 [AT] hotmail [DOT] com.
Some of my very favourite contributors will be there - it should be a good night.
Also, VERY IMPORTANTLY remember to bookmark PB Channel 2
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com
If disaster strikes, DO NOT KEEP HITTING REFRESH - come over to continue the conversation on Channel 2, and we’ll let you know when the main site is back online.
Morus
Chuck Schumer defends the Fairness Doctrine because he thinks that regulating talk radio is just like regulating pornography
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/TWSFPView.asp
Yeah!
3. We know that some Jews (and other people) are prone to exaggeration. e.g. the 4 billion Jews killed at the seige of Bethar, or the 16 million children burned alive in scrolls by the Romans, or the “6 million” in a “threatened holocaust” that a former governor of New York wrote about in 1919…
28. Given the discussion about Judaism, it was only a matter of time before our friendly neighbourhood holocaust denier popped up.
McCain right out to 17.5 on betfair..
Day trader’s dream
28- Oh man….
26 - I wish I could come to crush you at the p0ker table afterward, with all the money just won.
I would bluff you so much on the Riva, Mista, you would wanna quit poka foreva.
Soon, soon… but not this year.
29- Did they come up with the figure on their secret base on the Moon?
33- Errr 29=28!
14. The reasoning behind it is racist as well..
O/T Abbey raises interest rates by 0.5%
http://www.metro.co.uk/money/article.html?Abbey_raises_tracker_mortgage_rate&in_article_id=386649&in_page_id=36
Uh, oh, discussion about the Jews, got Rod foaming at the mouth
29. Perhaps you believe in all those holocausts as well?
Each to their own…
If you want a better idea of what is happening & what to look for.
This list is courtesy of Labour Home (not that I’m a fan)
(*) = ECV
Around Midnight GMT
Obama
Vermont, VT (3)
Virginia, VA (13)
McCain
Georgia, GA (15)
Kentucky, KY (8)
South Carolina, SC (8)
West Virginia, WV (5)
Swing states:
Indiana, IN (11)
Ohio, OH (20)
North Carolina, NC (15).
If Obama wins two out of those three swing states (and also carries Virginia), we have President-elect Barack Obama.
Around 1am GMT
Obama
Connecticut, CT (7)
Delaware, DE (3)
District of Columbia, DC (3)
Illinois, IL (21)
Maine, ME (4)
Maryland, MD (10)
Massachussetts, MA (12)
New Hampshire, NH (4)
New Jersey, NJ (15)
Pennsylvania, PA (21)
Michigan, MI (17).
McCain
Alabama, AL (9)
Arkansas, AR (6)
Mississippi, MS (6)
Oklahoma, OK (7)
Tennessee, TN (11).
Swing states:
Florida, FL (27)
Missouri, MO (11)
By 2am GMT,
Iowa, Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Montana and Hawaii won’t really matter very much).
Obama
Colorado, CO (9)
Minnesota, MN (10)
New Mexico, NM (5)
New York, NY (31)
Rhode Island, RI (4)
Wisconsin, WI (10).
McCain
Arizona, AZ (10)
Kansas, KS (6)
Lousiana, LA (9)
Nebraska, NE (5)
North Dakota, ND (3)
South Dakota, SD (3)
Texas, TX (34)
Wyoming, WY (3);
4am GMT
California, CA (55)
Washington, WA (11)
Oregon, OR (7)
36- What do you expect from Jew Bankers?
(OK maybe that was a bit much…)
16. The Guardian isn’t.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/04/virginia-barack-obama-election-day
BTW, does anyone else find Webb annoying? I can’t put my finger on it but I do. However, I do not find him as annoying as Jim Naughtie’s “wistful and poetic” sketches of the US election, which I have seemed to wake up to every morning for the past decade.
And as for Robert Peston, I think the only person who extends their syllabulls more than him is Sarh Palin. Anyway, must keep calm.
33. No, just their historians, and the Talmud..
41, Peston is a national disgrace. I hope he gets run over by a steam roller and then used as a trampoline by the obese.
42. Words fail me.
14. What I was always told was that Judaism was passed down through the mother’s line because it was certain that the mother was Jewish.
As a Jew, I’ve always been disappointed that I’ve never been given access to any of the world conspiracies, the secret pile of gold, or the moon base. Perhaps Rod could tell me what I’m doing wrong.
37 - You’re correct. Time for his favourite community singing to calm him down
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQBhxOFjCn0
43. Guffaw, guffaw, and a big shiny bran tub of additional guffaws.
41 - You obviously never heard Kenneth Williams on Just A Minute. He could make the word “enormous” last for five seconds.
28. Rod, while you’re on, could you remind me of your little excel formula for predicting Tory individual constituency gains from national vote share leads?
45- I’ve been to the Moon Base, its crap. You can’t get Broadband, and they charge 10 dollars to use the toilet.
I have not been impressed with Webb’s analysis to date as he appears to have gone native with the GOP Beltway Virginia insiders. He is not a patch on the late Alistair Cook or Charles Wheeler who were far superior. And Naughtie on Radio 4 is so ponderous. As Ariana Huffington noted the real winner has been the Internet and the MSM hacks are just struggling to catch up with the blogs and the very good web sites. If it is an Obama landslide it will show that the Internet has called it correctly and the MSM trad media are on the verge of being pensioned off. Richly deserved in my view. And this is alas the same BBC which doesn’t have the moral fibre to simply fire Jonathan Ross…
Does having Yorkshire ancestry make it easier to convert to be Jewish? Similar attitude towards money , after all!
50. Is that 10 USD or 10 Zimbabwe dollars ?
Discussion of the Jews and the Holocaust should stop now
Not as though there’s nothing else to talk about, and we’re going to have a lot of new visitors tonight who don’t know how to contextualise you all, so you seem scary.
Sorry.
PS Philippe - you and me, eyeball to eyeball, across the green baize and a stack of chips big enough to bury a large dog. I’d eat you for breakfast! Soon, my friend, soon…
54- I wondered how long until you or Mike showed up
48. Williams used to terrify me as child when he featured on Willo the Wisp. He certainly would have owned Palin and Peston in the extended syllabull event, however I think I am right in saying that the old grandmaster is no longer with us.
54. Can you extend the ban to Global warming too ?
55 - Never far away - can’t trust you lot to leave the libellous Kool Aid alone!!
45. Don’t you think that is “racist”, and not really dissimilar from the NSDAP policy on Aryanism?
51. Love it!
I quite liked some of Webb’s analysis - particularly the way he anticipated Powell’s endorsement
57 - Shhhhhh! No-one had mentioned it. Or the Lisbon Treaty!
54- Just to make it crystal clear, I don’t acually think Abbbey National are run by the religious group who shall not be named, nor that bankers who belong to the so named religious group are more dishonest than any other bankers.
Catholics on the other hand, my god, don’t get me started…
Just put a fiver on McCain at 21/1 on betfair.
54. Personally, I blame the Armenians.
54. OK, but I didn’t start it. Final word on the Ashkenazim. Read Arthur Koestler’s [an Ashkenazi] “The Thirteenth Tribe” to explain who the Jews might really be….
63. Anyone remember what price Bush was 4 yrs ago ?
Zogby on Radio 5 Live just now. Still polling today:
- 2 States which were neck and neck have swung back to McCain. One is Florida. Didn’t name the other.
- Ohio is looking good for Obama.
Overall Electoral College will be closer than expected, but still expects a clear Obama win.
Pound close to an all-time low against the euro.
Hooray!!!!!*
*sorry
66, seant will have the Bangkok price, no doubt:p
63. Groan… He’ll only get longer…
can someone lock zogby away and throw away the key please
I thought I read that CNN.com would be streaming CNN domestic, but their coverage seems to be the usual cnn.com anchors and secondary reporters..
67. Always thought Florida would go McCain. As long as ‘the other one’ isn’t PV…..
This just in from a Republican buddy in Pennsylvania
“I think Obama will win, I’m hoping he is overpolling and the margin won’t be as large as some are predicting. At this point I say give it all to the Democrats, the presidency, the house and a super majority in the senate and lets see whether they really can heal the whole world like they promise.”
“Barack Obama predicts an Indiana win”
Go! Boy, Go! I bet heavily on it…
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/11/obama_predicts_an_indiana_win.html
67- sorry other way round- Zogby suggesting that Florida is tightening to McCain (not enough to win), and Ohio is flipping back to McCain. Ouchh
Beware exit polls
67- Probably NC or MO
Obama at 1.05 on betfair..
Any indicators from GA?
77. More likely Missouri
76. I always had a feeling it was going to be a long night. Double groan….
“Obama makes final-hour push in Indiana”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD9488DT82
72- I don’t think it starts until the first polls close (around 11pm GMT)
If they dont show it then your backup if you lack Freeview and want to avoid the BBC is to go to C-SPAN and watch their coverage (or the Canadian coverage on C-SPAN2, check their schedule to see when it starts.)
I read that MSNBC will be showing their coverage at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/ too.
538.com final projection:
McCain overall win percentage - 1.1%.
New Hampshire - 100% Obama
Florida - 73% O
North Carolina - 63% O
Virginia - 97% O
Missouri - 47% O
Pennsylvania - 100% O
Ohio - 88% O
Colorado - 98% O
Nevada - 95% O
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
79. Georgia staying red, unless you are considering the percentage margins
54 - I’ve been coming here for over a year. Could I have some help in contextualising everyone? Quite a few people here seem scary.
78 — Back to where it was 5 hours ago…
85 - thanks. Saw the Betfair odds and reports of huge AA turnout in GA and put a couple of quid on Obama getting it
76. That’s not how I heard it - I listened to the whole interview.
Oh for a word about Glenrothes……
Betfair has Rep 3.9 to win Florida…
90. SNP Gain (Maj, 1690)
538’s Last “Most likely Obama EV totals”:
311, 353, 364, 338, 291
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
92. Please let it be !
F*** it, let’s go crazy: I’m calling Hawaii for Obama.
54- thanks Morus. I have given this site address to a number of friends today, and I would hate them to think I spend my spare time blogging with crack pots.
So please can everyone be on their very best behaviour!
Or if you want to be a naughty boy you can watch Fox News with this…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tvu_networks
95. Guam declares for Obama !!
94 On the betting betfair have the SNP faves at 1.52 vs 2.74 Lab.
Expect movements tomorrow when USA money frees up
I’m going to be brave and call MA for Obama
41.
“as for Robert Peston, I think the only person who extends their syllabulls more than him is Sarh Palin. Anyway, must keep calm.”
Never heard Lloyd Grooooooooooosman then?
Zogby is referring to his own polls here - http://www.pollster.com/blogs/zogby_pa_oh_va_nv_fl_mo_nc_in.php
Pollsters, of course, try and ignore everybody else, better to look at all pollsters and trends instead.
100.
“I’m going to be brave and call MA for Obama”
Anonymous posters self-declared as being ‘brave’ tend to be members of ‘Prostitutes for Chastity’ in their spare time!
For anyone with a big Betfair account there’s still a fiver to be made by backing No for an electoral college tie at 1.01.
103 - whoosh
97 - Anybody know a good way of watching BBC TV while abroad? (not for the election coverage obviously!) Got to spend 3 weeks in Abu Dhabi soon, and the iPlayer doesn’t work without the UK
97 - if you know how to, find a way of getting a UK proxy to read websites.
Or learn how to use Tor
74.
“see whether they really can heal the whole world like they promise”
Barak has just annoinced Bob Geldorf as Secretary of State elect!
Incase you missed my post, these are all the places (that I know of anyway) to watch election coverage that isnt the BBC. C-SPAN is the only one I am 100% sure on though!
C-SPAN1 (Their own coverage, starts at 12am GMT) and C-SPAN2 (CBC Canadian Coverage, starts at 1am GMT) at http://www.c-span.org
CNN Coverage at http://www.cnn.com
MSNBC Coverage at http://www.msnbc.msn.com
A not exactly 100% legal way to watch Fox News (And *maybe* other channels) is with this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tvu_networks
108. Peaches Geldof will be the National Security Adviser
83
I’m in Denmark currently, and not speaking Danish, limited to what I can find on the web. Hopefully CNN works, if not then one of the P2P streaming sites may well offer something.
In October last year my wife and I sat drinking with our GOP friends in Florida. They asked me for an outsider’s view. I said that I felt an Obama/McCain race would be good for the US and good for the world.
Of course at that ime I was thinking about John McCain 2000 model; I have to say that the upgrade [downgrade] wasn’t worth it.
Malcolm
101- Or Obama’s “aaaaaand”
107 - I’ve never managed to get a proxy server to work. What’s Tor?
Democrats 1.06 best price to win Alaska, last price matched 8.6 - looks like someone had the same crazy idea I did - but didn’t bottle it at the crucial moment! (ultimately I thought 15 wasn’t high enough and I had enough on other states)
111 — MSNBC can be better than CNN web; Chuck Todd is a pretty interesting pundit.
Live, here:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22996214#22887506
114 - it’s a piece of software that is supposed to hide where you’re posting from.
111. Try MSNBC, I really liked their coverage of the primaries.
114: A VPN is a tidier solution, that way all your packets go through the remote computer, not just web but streaming video as well. Alternatively, remote desktop into your home machine (built into Vista, works superbly), and you essentially remote control it.
New Hampshire Court Case - Republican officials unhappy cannot get near enough to scrutinise new voter registrations in polling booths.
Judge hearing case at 1.30 ET (ie in 5 minutes!).
116.
I think I might end up using my monthly vodafone dongle data limit in one night by wtahcing live TV.
I don’t have a TV licence, I refuse to prop up the BBC, so wondering how this fits with not being allowed to watch TV via computer, presume its limited to UK.
Georgia will absolutely turn blue.
49.
The chance of a Tory gain in a particular Labour/Con marginal can be estimated using the Excel formula
NORMDIST(x,y,3,1)
where x is (Tory opinion poll %lead + 3)/2
and y is (Labour seat %majority)/2
and the chance of a Labour hold is 1 - (the above calculation)
Basically, it assumes that swing is approximately normally distributed, with a standard deviation of about 3 (bolded in the formula - it is usually in the range 2.5 to 3.5) The x is the national swing achieved by the Tories (lead + 3)/2, the y is the swing required to gain the particular Labour seat (majority/2). When x and y are the same the chance of a gain is exactly 50% (a fact some Tory rampers tend to forget…)
It’s a simple metric, and is only valid for classic Lab/Con marginals. It would break down where other parties had a reasonble chance of a gain.
However, Curtice and Firth extended the principle to all parties and all seats to arrive at their famous “66″ forecast majority in 2005, but you need about 8 separate calculations for each seat to do that. I use those calculations in my “probabilistic forecasts” which I post from time to time….
So applying it, for the sake of example, to Nick Palmer (sorry Nick
) we have say
Tory national lead - 10% (swing since 2005 = 6.5%)
Nick’s majority - 4.7% (swing required = 2.35%)
Chance of Tory gain is NORMDIST(6.5, 2.35, 3, 1) = 91.7%
Increasing the variation in swing slightly, by changing the 3 to 3.5, reduced the probability slightly to 88.2%…
Of course this is only an estimate - it takes no account of regional variations, for example. It could best be described as saying if there were 10 seats across the country of identical marginality to Broxtowe, we would expect the Tories to win 9 of them, and some lucky Labour MP would hold on, but we don’t know which one…
Final 538 verdict:
Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
538.com after showing some small tightening in Pennsylvania now has it back to 100% chance of Obama winning for its final prediction.
Man, I am going to be a complete wreck, its going to be like the Brazil GP, only longer!
110. Jonathan Ross as retiree tsar.
I am hoping for 4 things today - 1)Obama is President-Elect 2)Proposition 8 gets defeated in California 3)Michelle Bachmann loses in MN06 and 4)Al Franken wins in MN Senate - give me all those 4 and I will be dancing in the streets tonight
I am not asking for much am I 
124: That’s pretty much spot on what the intrade weighted average EV is as well (350).
ps anyone want to suggest some good regularly updated election blogs to watch?
I like Jim Geraghty on NRO (pro-GOP):
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
And Nate Silver on 538.com (he’s pro-Obama):
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
A vote from the grave for McCain :
http://www.11alive.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=123142&catid=40
Dont know whether this has been posted before:
YouGov Poll: 32,000 Sample Size
Mccain 184
Obama 354
Link
Are any bets beings taken on when the website will go down and how long for ?
538.com has YouGov polls for almost every State:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
And Black Panthers wielding night sticks at a Philadelphia polling station telling white voters there’s no need to bother because the black man’s gonna win anyway:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCeD1RcJjAg
116. I like Chuck Todd, too. He talks sense. Tom Brokaw is also a good and authoritative anchor on Meet the Press - better than Russert, actually, IMHO.
re 115 I offered 18 for the Democrats to win Alaska (when the best price was 1.2) and that got snapped up.
CNN feed - http://www.cnn.com/video/live/cnnlive_1.asx
21- Philippe, you really have it in for me today! Anyway, I’m glad you’re back here for the big day.
Interesting that my electoral vote prediction is very close to Rove’s and very far from Kos’s. We’ll soon see…
Anyone seen Ave it ?
Is it just me out of the Obama fans who is hoping Missouri goes for McCain tonight so that we don’t have to hear about it being a bloody “bellwether” state again?
102- If King Zog is right, I may have correctly picked the North Carolina firewall…
138 - I have just noticed that my own electoral vote prediction is the same as Rove’s. Now I’m scared…
I guess we are not going to see the infamous Michelle Obama ‘whitey’ tape. And no October surprise either ?
131 - Interesting. Their state polls mean that the headline ECV figure of 354 implies that Obama picks up the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District around Omaha *without winning Indiana, Montana, Missouri, Georgia or North Dakota*.
I would have though one of those was more likely to fall than the NE-02, but there you go.
Princeton Election Consortium
http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/final-predictions-for-2008/#more-2288
Electoral vote: The final polling snapshot is Obama 352 EV, McCain 186 EV. The confidence bands are 68% [337,367] Obama EV, 95% [316,378] Obama EV.
Stochastic Democracy
http://stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com/2008/11/final-call-summary.html
Obama: 353 and McCain : 185
YouGov’s massive poll also indicates that Missouri will be the firewall state on Shadsy’s market.
134- Here are the Black Panthers in action, positioned directly in front of the door of the polling station:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neGbKHyGuHU
As you can see, they’re just trying to provide a warm welcome to voters…
147. S&S, where do you live ?
Don’t you understand it’s a Philly thing ? The lovel young men at the door wouldnt hurt a fly, even if it was wearing a McCain T Short !
38 - It’s an exciting day, and I’m trading, for my personal standard, a huge amount of electronic cash: I’m heavily laying Obama at 1.06 and backing him winning Ohio @ 1.2, or Florida @ 1.31, or PA @ 1.08, or NC — no-no, not this one yet…
And it’s fun to tease you! You seem so c0ol, so calm, so … like my new-found idol, M. Obama (who, BTW, will overcome the Politics of Every Day Fear championed by all the Republican p0rnophiles, and restore Fairness and Social Justice, and Heal the World. Yeah!).
148- I’m right next door in New Jersey. And I know that Philly has a sterling reputation, being the city of ‘Brotherly Love’ and all. Still, something in me tells me there’s something not quite right about that stick-wielding gentleman…
147 — Holy Cow! The rasta-guy looks pretty aggressive with its billy club!
I would not bet that this excellent, and bold, “concerned citizen”’s temoignage would pass Sullivan’s filter, though….
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/
150. Well at least you have the good grace to call him a gentleman.
Final(ish) ECV Projections:
Real Clear Politics…………338
538.com……………………349
Electoral-Vote.com………….353
Surprisingly close!
123. Thanks, Rod.
Does anyone have a good link for the state by state popular vote results in 2000 and 2004, preferably with all states on a single page?
149- I think Schumer may be making a bit of a mistake in comparing conservative speech to p0rnography, though. In the pantheon of liberal free speech, few matters are more worthy of protection than p0rnography…
Actually, I’ve been wondering for a while when it would come to this. If conservative ideas are really so vile and hateful, it can only be a matter of time before the good and righteous Democrats, sufficiently empowered by the voters, act to protect us all from the scourge of conservative speech through appropriate government action.
Phillipe, you are slightly more forthright ( and perhaps Gallic) in your description of the gentleman as a ‘rasta-guy’
shadsy, when is your “firewall” market expected to close?
153 PfP - I believe the Electoral-vote.com projection is 353+11 tied (i.e. Missouri tied). Also that’s 538.com’s averaged-out projection; their most-probable is 353.
156 You do make a serious point on the issue of free speech, however, as the use of hate laws to outlaw certain elements of free speech on this side of the Atlantic is something I can imagine is not too far away.
I think gender neutral laws in California seem to point to this.
Don’t you agree ?
155. I’ve found this to be as good as anywhere:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/
The only thing is that the colours are all the wrong way round as he started compiling the site before the Dem=blue / GOP=red convention became, well, convention.
re 155 Rod try Wikipedia. I’ve successfully imported that into Excel before now.
Hasn’t BBC Parliament in previous elections provided live coverage of C-Span? From what I remember they generally tend to have a phone in. Are BBC Parliament doing that this year?
Sky and the BBC might also be providing CBS and ABC coverage respectively through the red button. Sky did that four years ago I think.
156 — Freedom of speech will always live in America. Potential fights may lie ahead. But as long as America is American, as long as she is actualizing her amazing and singular potential, freedom will triumph against evil righteousness.
God bless her!
And may Barack be his inspired son!
158. 11pm, PfP. After that we will probably just have the outright market and the Mccain over/under 21.5 states market going.
Moves apparently already afoot to have Virginia voting extended, expect more of this from different states as the night wears on.
160- I’ve always been amazed how folks like Jean Marie LePen are regularly dragged into court and convicted of things like suggesting various elements of the holocaust didn’t really happen. There are all sorts of historical atrocities in the annals of humanity, but stating something factually wrong about particular atrocities lands you in jail. Is that where we’re all heading here in the western world, descendants of the Enlightment as we are? Where is the line between a fact and an opinion? Are wrong facts more objectionable than wrong opinions, or vice versa? Which deserve to be criminally punished and suppressed? This is a horrible path to proceed upon, and I fear we are already on our way.
41. benbobjim - “BTW, does anyone else find Webb annoying? I can’t put my finger on it but I do. However, I do not find him as annoying as Jim Naughtie’s “wistful and poetic” sketches of the US election, which I have seemed to wake up to every morning for the past decade.”
They are horrible! Naughtie sounds like a man on the brink of ending it all, he’s so wistful.
Strike one for the bookies. Rain in Washington DC today makes it a winning start for the layers. Punters reeling after “Dry” was the most popular choice on the White House Weather market.
On the firewall finder, we’re hoping from something to save us from Missouri or North Carolina. I still think it’ll get down to WV.
166 This is going to be a long night.
Time to put a few zzzz’s in the tank…
159 Richard - you’re right, I’d overlooked electoral-vote.com’s one tied State of Missouri with 11 ECVs.
Having just re-checked 538.com, their headline reads:
Today’s Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189
Ladbrokes are currently offering 6/1 for Missouri and 5/1 for Indiana being their firewall state - backing both for small stakes looks like a fair value fun bet to me.
OT: Dizzy reports on Mandelson trying to seize the internet, ending with:
“Just imagine if Whitehall controled the .uk domain and the implication that could have. They could take sites hosted in the uk domain offline easily. It would also provide the Government with a massive propaganda tool.”
167 - If you think of this type of offence as a subcategory of public order offences, it makes some sense. In countries such as France and Germany, the treatment of the Jews in the Second World War remains a matter of intense rawness and it is arguably important for these historical facts to remain unchallenged so that there can be no repetition. I strongly oppose such laws in the UK, which was not subject to the Nazi regime, but would only mildly oppose them in those countries in the EU that had been subject to the Nazi regime.
The French laws against denying the Armenian genocide are, however, in my view, quite unjustifiable.
Maybe this potential Europeanisation of America — cryptically promised by Pelosi, Reid and Obama — is in fact something like the “Enlightenment” of our dark continent? the repudiation of faith in the name of reason, and the hypocritical disguises of evil-doers into victim… Oppressing in the name of past oppression; stealing in the name of justice; shutting people up in the name of freedom…
etc etc.
Rod@155, try this, has RCP average and 2004/2000 results:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data
Missing a few of the reddest states, but that only matters if you think Obama’s about sweep Utah.
Particularly striking with Indiana going from Bush +20 to a tossup, and Iowa a Bush waferthin win to Obama+15.
I will not make any reference to the Holocaust,given the issues on this blog earlier about the Jewish race.
I have a theory that liberals are accepting of someone as long as that person holds views which the liberal agrees with.
Once you disagree with the liberal consensus, an example is with Sarah Palin’s candidacy, you are subject to ridicule and abuse. Another example is the issue of sexual orientation, where the liberal consensus is to force everyone to accept an equivalence, regardless of underlying moral convictions that may be held.
They miss the ironic point that this defeats the whole ethos of liberalism.
Just seem McCain and Leiberman, they look like twins separated a birth ( froma distance, at least)
166 Delays in Virginia and posibly elsewhere. This may well delay Obama’s concession speech and therefore render the odds on it being tomorrow (EST time) more attractive on PP’s market.
178. Obama’s concession speech? shurely shome mishtake?
Good luck everyone tonight. I still have no good feeling for how this is going so will be glued to the coverage but may not be posting all that much. I predicted 348-190 yesterday but could see it ending up some distance out either way.
179 — lol
173- I take your point and accept that your rationale makes sense IF you believe it is the proper role of government to regulate or suppress expression of belief on matters of historical fact or politics. I think this is one of the most dangerous areas in which a government can regulate and it should never do so, even if there are reasonable historical bases for doing so. The cost to liberty greatly outweighs the benefit.
If you want to use the example you raise of fear of a resurgence of Nazism, I would suggest that there is a greater danger of that in a society where suppression of unpopular ideas has been made the norm than is the case in open and free societies.
171 - PfP, 349 is 538.com’s average prediction, not the “most probable” one based on likely winners of each state - which is 353. 349 would actually be pretty tricky to achieve (would have to be everything projected Obama up to NC, less a shock in NH).
Has anybody heard any anicodes of polling in any of the swing states that might gives us a clue how the get our the vote is going for the two sides?
It is interesting to watch the discrepancies still occuring in Intrade. There are so many people short McCain in that website that they are trading at 7.2% when betfair is 20/1 !!!!
easy money!
“IF you believe it is the proper role of government to regulate or suppress expression” : typical European conception of government as the nanny-state, acting like a mother toward a bambino.
174/176- When Bush and a Republican Congress ruled the land, the liberals were the loudest and most impassioned voices in defense of the principle of free speech, insisting that dissent was patriotic and so forth. But I always suspected that sentiment would soon evaporate when the Dems were back in power (i.e., that it was not a genuine sentiment but rather a rhetorical tool to fend off conservatives until they had the power to crush them). Repressing the open expression of conservative sentiment has already become the norm and is widely accepted in the non-democratic environment of American universities and I believe the generation that will now be ruling the country will also see no problem in suppressing “wrong” beliefs with whatever mechanisms they can. The Fairness Doctrine will probably be the first, but not the last, means of doing so.
Evening all.
This guy puts it better than I could: http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2062
Meanwhile, on the FTSE, a 4.4% gain sees the index climb back above its 2 May 97 level. Up 20.4% in six trading days, smashing the previous record (14.56%, 12 Mar 03 to 20 Mar 03).
Two days to Glenrothes!
Haven’t read the thread, just popped into say that it’s been a wild and enjoyable year of campaigning and you’ve all been great company. Thanks, Morus, Mike Smithson, Jack W and all other’s who have been posting on the american election.
Now that’s enough loving. I’m off to get stark raving drunk no matter what the outcome.
Interesting seeing McCain still on the stump on election day in Colorado & New mexico.
If he had no chance would he bother?
If turn out is massive surely this could be interesting?
I’ve topped up on sleeps - but have i got enough Beer in!
Iain Dale has a post claiming that 50% of Tories support Obama
Unfortunately 99.9999% of Lab and Libs support Obama. So he point is what exacly.
Why then was McCain at the 2007 Tory Confernce. And why did Geroge Yacht boy work for the Bush campaign in 2000.
Nice try by Caulson to get some of the glitter dust to fall on him with the daft Tory HQ polls poll, but they are not fooling anyone
190 - Listen to the rhetoric, any campaign that uses rhetoric like McCain is knows it has lost, and is trying to lose respectably and not get creamed.
191. Obviously Brown and Labour should take all of the credit!
I bet Brown will be crowing at PMQ’s how he was the man who advocated a socialist scandanavian plan that he exported to the US and gave Obama victory!
Brown = T#sser!
187 — This is the third time you wrote that taught tonigh, I think, S&S. Anyway: I feel like it is the third time I’m reading it.
The first time I dismissed it as something too stupid to be done by the new government.
The second time, it made me think.
And now, I’m kinda scare for the future of America…
192. Probably but why would you bother?
If you are going to get your arse kicked going on many comments on the east coast - would you knacker your self on voting day for a few more votes? I wouldn’t bother!
195 - He wants to be able to say that he did everything he could. I know I’ve been there!
191. I’m surprised anyone reads Dale’s blog anymore - or Guido. Both are so boring, so far past their sell by dates.
For you guys who have money on this, I thought this article was interesting. Apologies if its been posted before..
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23581892-details/Obama+warned+national+poll+lead+is+%27misleading%27/article.do
How many people are liveblogging tonight?
168. Glad it’s not just me with Naughtie.
The first time I remember him doing the wistful thing was when Blackpool effectively closed its doors as a party conference town with the Tories last year. There was a montage of classic sound clips from conferences gone by, Naughtie mused wistfully in between.
It was apt – that one time. Naughtie then decided to maintain the style throughout mud-chucking of the US horse race for reasons known only to himself.
196. Far play - I think Obama will probably win but one should not equate record turn out necessarily with votes for Obama! Otherwise Obama would be on 80 Million votes plus!
Well if that happened i would hope he would get the economy back on the road!
The new electoral map interests me and it’s long term implications, will it be like the Nixon Southern strategy? That sort of long term watershed.
194- I do have a hypnotic effect on some people…
Let’s say that I hope I’m wrong about this, but it’s not as if Obama himself along with several prominent Democrats in Congress haven’t been singing the praises of the Fairness Doctrine which will result in, de facto, the suppression of conservative political speech.
161. Thanx. That’s excellent
Cool tool : http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/
187+ 194
I think when the realities of an Obama administration become apparent, with all the attendant assaults on free speech, it may well be too late.
It is interesting what you say about UNiversity campuses in the US, as I meet a lot of Ivy Leaguers who are spending time in the UK. Aside from those with strong religious convictions, conservatism is almost a derided ideology.
I think there are a lot of parallels with the entry of a very popular ‘merchant of change’ a la Tony Blair in 1997. I think looking back, a lot of people that voted for this awful labour government now regret it.
I am convinced the Obama presidency will take the same course, excpet that the size and sheer force of the American state (which GWB expanded by 40%, unfortunately) could make the results frighteneing. In many ways, what I see in California suggests a democracy and liberty is seriously compromised, unless of course you are left wing, beleive in abortion, gay marriage and gun control.
Only three hours ago until the AVE IT PREDICTION!!!!!!!!!!!
Projected winner
State changes
Uncertainties
Range of outcome!!!!!!
11pm GMT approx!!!!!!
Anyone else starting to get that feeling of election night butterflies in the stomach? General elections really are the best reality TV show there is. Those few moment before the polls close qnd the exit polls are revealed are real nailbiting moments.
Politico puts 2 very good pictures of Obama and Mac.
I like particularly the McCain’s one : http://www.politico.com/
I wish Obama would give Mac a terrific job!
206
Good to see Ave it back.
“Use your brain, vote mcCain”
207 you mean until the AVE IT PREDICTION???
207 - Election nights are awful, more so when you are the candidate!
208- Mais il ne lui donnera rien, c est la vie…
In Hesse, Hanover and Heidelberg, Holocausts Hardly ever Happen.
There. I’ve managed to be both tasteless, vulgar, and deftly allusive, at the same time as I have broken laws in several major European states, making me liable to collaring under the European Arrest Warrant.
Come and get me, EU Thought-Gestapo.
195. Politicians just do; there’s a part of most of them that enjoys it.
Apart from that though, there are the big drivers of fear and hope. Fear that not campaigning might either result in a really bad defeat or (even worse) might make the difference between winning and not - and you never really know until the ballot boxes are opened (or the equivalent). And then there’s the hope that keeping going might have the opposite effect.
There’s also the fact that the rally will have been booked a while ago. It would be rude not to turn up.
207. The only election I have been a candidate in is what University for a student Union post. I got about 15% of the vote (171 votes) but the point between close of polls and the count is nerve racking in those days i smoked! That evening I chain smoked!
211- That’s why French elections are easier on everyone’s nerves: the result is always known before 9pm.
214. True!
Noonan on Mac:
It was a night during the Republican Convention in September, and two former U.S. senators, who had served with Mr. McCain for a combined 16 years, were having drinks in a hotel dining room. I told them I collected stories of senators who’d been cursed out by John McCain, and they laughed and told me of times they’d been the target of his wrath on the Senate floor.
The talk turned to presidents they had known, and why they had wanted the job. This one wanted it as the last item on his résumé, that one wanted it out of an inflated sense of personal destiny. Is that why Mr. McCain wants it? “No,” said one, reflectively. “He wants to help the country.” The other added, with almost an air of wonder, “He wants to make America stronger, he really does.” And then they spoke, these two men who’d been bruised by him, of John McCain’s honest patriotism.
http://online.wsj.com/article/declarations.html
210. Yep, I’m on tenterhooks waiting for your in-depth analysis.
211. Well, thats the great thing about not being a party member or candidate, you can really enjoy election nights because you don’t have so much invested.
215- It’s even worse when you have access to leaked exit polls, most of the time inacurate. During the French presidential election the first exit polls I got for the first round (around 6pm) put Sarkozy at 27 and Royal at 26. I really panicked for a few minutes. But then the real scores were 31.2 and 25.8…
Brooks on Mac and his Campaign:
McCain would be an outstanding president. In government, he has almost always had an instinct for the right cause. He has become an experienced legislative craftsman. He is stalwart against the country’s foes and cooperative with its friends. But he never escaped the straitjacket of a party that is ailing and a conservatism that is behind the times. And that’s what makes the final weeks of this campaign so unspeakably sad.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/opinion/26brooks.html
Obama 409
There’s been a small but definite move to Obama in Missouri - it was 5/6 each this morning but we’re now 8/13 Obama 6/5 McCain.
I place a smallish bet of 100$ on Obama winning Georgia some weeks ago @ 6.
But later on I laid it for the same amount @ 5.
So I keep a disaffected eye on it, just for fun.
From Sullivan:
Georgia: Seriously
A reader writes:
____I live in Grant Park, a very nice, upper middle class area in the city of Atlanta. I got up to vote this morning at 630am, and walked less than an eighth of a mile to my polling place, and when I got there, there were 500 people in queue in front of me, and another 500 got in queue behind me before the polls opened at 7am. I am 29 years old (30 is 6 days!), black, and gay, and I have to say, this is turning out to be a great day. Half of the people in line with me were my age or younger, and openly talking to their line-mates about their first time voting and how they had never been interested in politics before this. I am amazed.
________I have voted in every election here since 1998, and I have never seen turnout like this, even . I know this is anecdotal, but it is not the only polling location here in town that I have been to like this. I work in a polling place (I’m the office manager for a local affordable housing non-profit that is based in an old school building, and the same dynamics have been playing out here all day. Long lines and young, first-time voters, very enthusiastic to vote for Obama.
Maybe we can take Georgia too.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/11/georgia-serious.html
Maybe they can!
127 rej4sl
Go Minnesota, pour scorn on the McPalins and the evil one and send Al to Washington. Have a wonderful evening and I hope you get what you wish for and a lot more.
We won’t be back in the Twin Cities until April [Maybe March changing planes] but we know that when we arrive the St Paul air will smell oh so much sweeter. Thanks for your great posts.
Malcolm
211 - Nowadays in the UK certainly for councillors Election night is the next day. The one thing I feel at 10.00 pm is that at least the die is cast and really there is nothing else I can do. It can be a weight lifted from your shoulders.
The joy of the count is watching the little orange pixies tick off every vote from every box and reporting back to the pixie in chief.
223- Aaron- the liquidity on the states is still so poor that any small movement at this stage can be discounted. I think that movement could be down to me, and I am clueless about who will win the state, and betting on pure instinct.
224 - I think he will take Georgia and I’m keeping my eye on Lousiana!
227 - liquidity on betfair may be poor but I can assure you I am laying bets on Obama for Missouri over in bet365 towers
228- Georgia, Montana and Indiana- if these three come in I am going to be one happy boy.
228 Will AVE IT project a gain for Obama in Louisiana???
230 - I suspect 2 of them will come in for you!
231 - Ave it, I suspect you will sooner predict McCain taking California!
229: Aaron, I’d happily take some of that, if bet365 would allow me higher amounts than a tenner :-((
229 - Aaron, I didn’t realise you layed anything at all over at bet365 towers?
229- Aaron- my apologies. What is your prediction for tonight?
233 you will just have to wait and see!
Does anyone fancy a wager on how many times that damns woman on BBC news 24 will call this ‘an historic election’.
232- West Virginia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas- could Obama pick any of these off?
The Democrats are giddy. Is this how we will feel in May 2010? I am excited already.
I predict that if Obama doesn’t get well over 300 ECV, the pollsters will be having a major enquiry.
I also predict that he’ll get over 350.
I further predict that the gloatathon will be on, at least until he makes his first unpopular decision (which he will, sooner or later).
176. We call these people ‘Liberal Bigots’, you can usually spot them quite quickly, they are often highly in favour of things like race, gender and sexual orientation discrimination, and deeply intolerant of views that are different to their own, these people tend to despise organised religions that are practised mostly by europeans, but have blind spot for other religions whose foundations and practise are diametrically opposes to their own.
Did I just hear Arnie say he and his family voted yes on proposition 8? I thought he opposed it
209 Jeremiah
If you vote McCain
You have no brain.
Malcolm
234 - if you’re still allowed referrals with us, they should come through to me tonight
236 - I reckon Obama might push 400, to be honest. I think the polling is likely to be structurally wrong given the vast changes in the likely electorate since 2000/2004 - though I wouldn’t care to guess on the scale.
The elections is ending.
And looking at my McCain vs. Obama betting screen on betfair, I taught : until the mi-september, what an exciting Elections it was.
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?96528c5197.jpg
239 is it too late for mcCain in illinois????
Jeremy Vine on News 24 much better than last time out. Straight forward analysis and a useful morphing of the map so the size of the states reflect electoral power rather than size.
No gimmics. Much better.
211 James
I loved election nights in my ward. The leader of the Tories on the council was also in a safe seat. Every 4 years at the count he would say to me “See they’re weighing them in our wards again, to save time.”
Lovely man, God rest his soul. He ran a Tory controlled council that was so far to the left that we almost had to be communists to remain in opposition.
Malcolm
243 - I was just watching him and thinking that it is a shame he is constitutionally barred from running for the White House!
222 - I don’t think you will be far off - I would guess somewhere between 370 and 390 EVs for Obama.
This really is like 1997 in the UK. An Obama victory is a self-fulfilling prophesy. From this distance I think that like Blair he has avoided giving any real substance for his opponents to use to build up a campaign against him. That leaves his opponents looking small when they try any “New Labour, New Danger” tactics, even if they are, like John Major 100% correct.
I hope we will widen the discussion to what all this means for Congress. Obviously both houses will be strongly Democrat and likely to remain so for six years. It was a feature in the UK in 1997 that many Tories who had distanced themselves from John Major were expecting to be credited for their independence with a smaller vote against them. That did not happen at all and the bastards and their ilk performed exactly the same as the loyalists. Is that going to happen in Congress in this landslide year ?
246- I posted here well before the primaries that the real contest was the Democrats pick- they had 3/ possibly 4 candidates that could have won this thing- Obama, Edwards, Hillary and Gore.
Tonight was always going to be a walk in the park for the Democrats. Much like 2010 for Cameron and co.
247. Washington DC for McCain!
Ave it is the best pundit evah.
No brain. Pure balls.
Fan.Tas.Tic.
I’m a huge fan! And I can’t stand the suspense.
247 - I should think!
OK, time for me to head into work. I’ll join you overnight if it’s a quiet one
On my second beer. Perhaps we all keep a note of our alcohol consumption tonight!
Princeton only has about a 2.5% chance of Obama exceeding 378 ECVs…
202. It isnt the suppression of conservative speech, its the suppression of free speech.
As someone who is relatively liberal (in the JS Mill sense) but one who is in many ways to the right in British political terms, there is such a thing as the tyranny of liberals which is subject to just as much intolerance as any fascist.
256- can’t think of much going on later!
250. Maybe an Obama victory will enable Arnie to get the Dems & the GOP to work together to change the constitution on electoral elegibility. I should imagine Obama would do it in a second term assuming he wins!
257. What you drinking?
257. First!
253 Martin: Ave it is just getting the latest polling data from DC: is it all good for GOP?
257 - I’m working so it is a percentage free night for me!
257- 330 ml Buds for the occasion.
248. It’s not even nine. Give him time.
264. The return of the Mac!
265 - insert “tomorrow” at an appropriate point!
267. No doubt he will get the slave graphic out shortly!
263: 263rd surely….
225 - thanks for the best wishes - we were in Caribou in Richfield, MN today - and a guy walked in with a security detail - we are convinced it was Al Franken’s son Joe - but we were too shy to ask - wanted to say Good Luck to Dad but it would have been embarrassing if it was not him - Nerves are on edge now -
Last minute polling in key swing states points to significant gains for McCain. Communism may not yet be coming to the United States of America.
Come on!!!!!!!!!!!!
242- The people of whom you speak are more anti-Christian than anti-religion. That’s why they often flirt with Eastern or New Age religions while harboring deep-seated contempt for Catholics, Protestants, etc. These people, who proudly wear their bigotry and intolerance on their sleeves, will now have many friendly and sympathetic ears in the U.S. government, and I would imagine that their adoring fans in Europe will be hoping to emulate that success.
Vote Palin
and church-state separation will soon be ailin’
Better hope for a Palin fail
or ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’ won’t be just a tale
258. Rod Crosby. What do you think the ECV result will be?
Anyone think there’s a value bet to be had anywhere at this late stage? I keep having a look at shadsy’s Firewall market.
242 But curiously enough, such people believe themselves to be tolerant.
273- please elaborate and source
272- I used to live in Richfield and sometimes visited Caribou Coffee! Is it the one on 66th St. and Lyndale (or possibly Nicolet) in the little medical building?
As per 538, a useful paper describing what we can infer from the early results: http://tinyurl.com/6yfvdy
AFP article on McCain gaining strongly:
http://news.smh.com.au/world/polls-show-obama-lead-hope-for-mccain-20081105-5huc.html
Here comes the Bradley effect.
Go on McCain!!!
276 — St-john,
You betta play this betfair market :
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20706249&ex=1&origin=MRL
If you are patient, you can still have around 1.75 on Obama getting more than 350 EVs…
273 — Dream on!!!!!!!!!!
I just dipped into Free Republic, not one of my usual stomping grounds I hasten to add. They seem remarkably bullish about OH, FL and PA. One presumes that they are just in denial/delusional but still….
Good Evening PBers worldwide !!
In the spirit of the US election shall we all queue to publish our posts and then wait for the machines to break down !!
I see that Ave It isn’t registered and will thus be exiled to Watford Conservative Club or PPC Dark Side as its better known, so as to better contemplate his future as Watford FC mascot !!
272- Oh wait, that was a Dunn Bros.! But I did go to the Caribou across from Byerly’s in Edina. Very fine coffee…
Is there any outcome in this election which would result in neither of them winning and DC crumbling into dust so that America could start again from truly liberal roots?
272 rej4sl
When we drove through eastern ND and SD we saw huge numbers of Democrat signs in farmers fields, genuine ones.
The moment we hit the Minnesota state line there was a huge reversal. Why would this happen? It was just so stark; we are still trying to work it out.
Malcolm
Applying the probabilistic method, and good old British UNS we have..
Obama Obama
lead ECVs
-2 256
-1.5 262
-1.0 268
-0.5 273
0.0 279
0.5 284
1.0 290
1.5 296
2.0 301
2.5 306
3.0 310
3.5 315
4.0 321
4.5 326
5.0 331
5.5 336
6.0 340
6.5 345
7.0 350
7.5 354
8.0 359
8.5 363
9.0 368
9.5 372
10.0 377
10.5 381
11.0 385
11.5 389
12.0 393
12.5 397
13.0 402
So 538, Princeton, et al could just have plugged in the national lead (7% - 7.5%) to come up with near-identical projections, saving them a whole lotta work….
202. Yes, everyone knows that causing the opposing view to be aired shows how ridiculous Republican conservative speech is, and renders it null and void. Thus it is like it has never been made, and we’re just left with liberal bias. That’s why the news media, the public education system and even wikipedia are just left-wing propaganda. Outrageous!
I can understand the fact in the US that some states run out of Ballots. This could be due to provisional ballots i.e. Demand maybe unknown.
But Nick Palmer interested me earlier on a previous thread when he said they had that problem in the UK in his seat. How the hell can thay have less Ballots thean required. Surely they print 70,000 or however many are on the electoral roll?
285 or Watford FC manager?!!!
290- But don’t tell me, Socrates (fair-minded as I know you are), that you are indifferent to the concept of suppression of opinions that aren’t consistent with your own? Would you wish that upon the U.S.?
274. To be fair, religions like Buddhism put at their heart the idea that you should not believe anything unless its based on one’s own reason, which is a concept rarely found in Abrahamic history. (Although, to their credit, some of the more liberal brands of Christianity and Judaism have accepted it.)
276. I’ve really no idea. I only know what it ought to be, assuming the polls are correct. See 289.
But if the polls are wrong, as well they might be… Who knows?
276. Phillipe. Paddy Power were laying 5/6 Obama -160 last time I looked, which comes to the same thing I think.
283. You can think what you like but this is going to be a very close election. As I wrote extensively earlier, America is not ready to embrace the same Communism it defeated decades ago. Obama supporters will be rioting in the streets tomorrow.
297 - Whatever!
276- Indiana betfair looks quite juicy stJohn
293. I think all opinions should be allowed in the media, as long as they’re not making factually untrue claims or inciting hate against (different to criticising) certain parts of society.
I don’t see how forcing big media to allow the other perspective to be aired causes the first one to be censored however.
289. So a 1% swing shifts on average about 19 ECVs (a bit more when it’s relatively even between the parties.)
Quite similar to the British electoral system, where a 1% swing shifts about 16 seats between Labour and Conservative….
300- Then you believe that newspapers and television stations (also part of the Big Media) should also be required, in the interests of fairness, to give equal space to each side of any political opinion offered?
Mr Smithson, will we have to put up with ‘The Fringe’ all night?
303 he may be right!!!
299 — That’s true.
299 — I just took a bet @ 2.42, Obama winning IN
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=21077029&ex=1&origin=MRL
304 - His reasoning is pretty awful!
303- one of the nice things about tonight is the bringing together of some very unlikely bedfellows into the one camp- you, me, seanT, Coxy et al, even Gordon and David all cheering Obama on.
AVE IT INTERIM PROJECTION:
Chelsea = Tee hee hee
302. They don’t have nearly as much influence if you look at readership figures.
302 I think it’s desirable that they should (it’s boring just reading or listening to stuff you agree with, the whole time), but unless they actually exercise a monopoly, I don’t think they should be required to. In practice, in all democracies, right and left wing viewpoints get a reasonable airing, so I can’t see why this particular piece of legislation should be thought necessary.
306- Obama was campaigning there yesterday. The polls are going to be held open due to the crowds. If my betfair account wasn’t down to 50p I would have veered there myself just now.
300 — Socrates.
The key word is indeed “forcing” some media players “to allow the other perspective to be aired”.
Why should the government intervene like this?
I mean: why would it work better than a market-approach?
Would it not open the door to bureaucratic abuses?
303. Let’s wait and see shall we. Obviously you think Obama has already won, I have a very different view. I’m entitled to my opinions. Like Team Obama (kicking mccain-leaning journalists off the plane) you seem to want to silence dissenting voices.
310- That dodges the issue.
211- Sean, the Fairness Doctrine isn’t necessary, but the Democrats know that radio is the one medium in which their views don’t dominate (in spite of having their views disseminated nationwide via the publicly funded NPR). Therefore, they’d like to shut it down. It’s as simple as that; the rest is window dressing.
I have a lot of sympathy with that perspective. I’m not that bothered with the fairness doctrine. I don’t think its an absolute necessity like some do, but I don’t think its some horrible piece of speech-stifling either.
Watching Fox is a hoot. Playing the race card in desperation
311- One other thing; while the Fairness Doctrine would kill off conservative talk radio, NPR would continue unaffected since it is not private. Therefore, when you turn on your radio, you will only find left-wing opinion to listen to.
308 McCainiacs are outside the Pale, mavericks like their beau, whereas those of us coalesced around The Obama find ourselves in the ascendant.
Fans of John should take note of the recent history of the Macs -
McGovern revisited?!
279 Nope S&S that used to be Dunn Brother’s which is now closed - Richfield now has two Caribou one on 66th and Lyndale - the other on 66th and 18th Ave S - which is the one we went too - makes it a real small world when people know where the coffee shops are
318. If you had a bipartisan congressional committee overseeing it people could launch complaints to it regarding bias both left and right. How biased is NPR anyway? Is it as bad as wikipedia?
314. I share your point of view it is not over yet!
I simply do not believe that the increase in turnout is down to Obama voters alone. Think some of you “MIGHT” be in for a very nasty shock indeed! Not necessarily a McCain victory but a very close election.
Indeed i wonder what the odds are of State flipping: Michigan, PA or Wisconsin flipping due to rascist voting but Virginia and north carolina go the other way? This could well be like those 1960’s elections in the south where “Dixiecrat type” victories come under the radar.
314 - “Like Team Obama (kicking mccain-leaning journalists off the plane)”
Yes, that was a bit much. If they’d provided parachutes then okay. But as it was, it was a bit heavy-handed.
323
322. I think you don’t appreciate the etymology of the term “Dixiecrat” if you think they might live in MI, PA or WI.
321. No representation for anyone but the big two parties? Isn’t that just stifling all voices but their’s.
309
Think u r right Ave it 08
Chelski 3-1 down and now down to 10 men.
317. I’m watching Fox - along with CNN and the Beeb. It’s not that much more biassed to the right than the latter two (especially the last) are to the left.
I genuinely don’t understand what irks lefties about Fox. Once you realise it has a bias, you see it through that prism, and it is quite bracing and enlivening. You can choose to agree or disagree. It doesn’t pretend to be “neutral”, like the Beeb.
Arguably it is healthier.
Anyway, Faux News deserves a little pity this evening; the presenters seem more wistful than anything. They know they are in for a hiding.
327 TY - I might be right later on too!!!!!!!!!
I’m surprised it’s so calm for now. No leaked polls, no major incidents at polling places. At this point, I had expected to have already gone through the “Oh my god! Obama wins by 20 points in Texas!” and “massive Bradley affect, McCain wins all of Appalachia” roller coaster once or twice. Will we really just wait for official numbers? How… smooth.
Perhaps this is a good day for American democracy already, regardless of the outcome?
321- One British PBer once flipped on NPR at my suggestion and said it’s just like Radio Five. Is that another non-partisan, even-handed source of just-the-facts?
325. No - I know what the term means: What I mean is a pattern that does not fit the rule.
Just because you don’t agree with a hypothisis - don’t say I don’t know what i am talking about. Those southern states in the early 1960’s are obviously not got some of the same drivers as the Northern ones i mention now. It is an idea not a rule: Personally I don’t give a monkeys who wins! I have no money on it! But why not talk about possibilites?
331 Radio 5 is mainly sport. When it does get onto politics, my impression is that it is pretty even-handed.
330- Fox news are repeating clips of Black Panthers taking over a polling station
CNN about to interview the Clintons.
Must be bittersweet for them. If Obama romps home that means he will be up for two terms, and it’s goodnight Verona to Hillary’s last hopes for the prez.
####Terrible attempt at a joke alert#######
Let’s be honest, despite all the fuss over Palin - the only female re-publican we want to see is Annie Walker back in charge at the Rovers.
GoBama
321. The idea of Five Live as being biased has never even crossed my mind.
328. It’s hard to think of it as part of the healthy media when it’s spreading slurs about the first serious black presidential candidate as being raised in a radical madrassa.
Texas update: Obama voter spotted……
Fox saying that Obama looking good in Virginia, Missouri, less so in the Carolinas.
333. Mayo is even handed but some of the stuff broadcast between nine and eleven is embarrassingly bad its a leftie wankathon throughout.
335. I wonder if Bill went for McCain! HRC is a suspicious possibility!
You know what politicians are like, say one thing and then do another.
SeanT have you changed your mind on Obama? I welcome a victory by either: I hope for a boost to the world economy through optimisim (Even if false) from an Obama victory. But to be honest my gut feeling is i would like McCain to win (I had wanted a Obama victory in the slough of the Financial Crisis)!
Obama now available @ 1.08
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20739353&ex=1&origin=MRL
337- So once conservative talk radio is dispensed with, should Fox be next? Perhaps conservatives can revert to gathering in basements and questioning the establishment in hushed tones…
335 - I think that was the case either way really. I just switched to CNN International because I can’t bear the BBC coverage!
343. Conservative talk radio doesn’t have to go anywhere. They can say exactly the same stuff but just have someone else on to disagree.
What’s happening in Glenrothes.
Labour have got to the point of telling blatant lies.
A clear indication that they don’t deserve to win.
Will there be any more dodgy decisions tonight????!
344. Go easy on the Mayo!
347 BBC going with Jeremy Vine in a Wizard of Oz themed guide to the Election?
That would be dodgy
345- That’s great as long as the same goes for the New York Times, Newsweek, CNN, MSNBC, etc.
Maybe you’re starting to see my point. This won’t work. The imposition would be a practical nightmare and drive away interest. Therefore, either be prepared to run an unprofitable enterprise or switch to a non-political format and steer clear of the whole mess. This is exactly what happened the last time there was a Fairness Doctrine… talk radio ceased to include politics because it was a bureaucratic nightmare, included the risk of onerous fines and other sanctions (including possibly losing your broadcast license), and was an unnecessary risk anyway when music or something else could be broadcast instead.
341. I’ve been rooting for Obama ever since Iowa, as any pb fule kno.
I did suffer a slight wobble during his Berlin Hubris phase, and my desire to tup Sarah Palin also clouded my judgment at one point, but I have always wanted him to win, and, moreover, always felt he would win - see my posts passim.
It’s not good for anyone when the whole world hates America. All that negativity is bad. Obama can change this.
Где скины скачать для блога ? Дайте ссылок плз…
350. All news reporting on UK TV has to be impartial and it works just fine.
McCain in from 20 (an hour ago) to 13 now on Betfair.
Explanation?
O/T If you are tired of this election and want to argue about the next one…
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2008/11/04/an_early_election_mandelson_and_brown_are_clearly_plotting_it
Local exit poll has Obama ahead in traditionally red county in early voting. It’s more comedy value than anything else (due to the tiny sample size) but the first data available.
http://articles.lancasteronline.com/local/4/229714
I know I shouldn’t say it but even now I want McCain to win, but if Obama wins I’ll wish him the best of luck.
345 — But Socrates, you do know that this government regulation you are calling for does not appear to get any market whatsoever?
Why can’t the Left create a liberal Rush Limbaugh?
Because no one would listen…
352. 12/1 at ladbrokes.
Explanation: the vote will be a lot closer than most of you seem to believe on here. McCain’s price will have collapsed completely by 3am with little support left for Obama.
266. Sounds alright to me.
I want McCain to win but my PROJECTION will be free and fair!!!!!!!!!!!
353. In the UK right wing expression is rarely if ever found on the BBC, and with the exception of Talk Sport is not found on radio. Nice cosy liberal establishment, where all the big players know each other and sleep with each others wives.
Here, right wing opinion is expressed through the internet, and guess what, the government and the EU want to regulate blogs for that very reason.
357. Keith Olberman?
351. Fair enough I would like to Tup Sarah as well! She is a Fox! Maybe she should go on the channel before a 2012/2016 run!
You are right on Obama changing the view of the US! That might create a very different world.
My fear is the reason why he is elected will disapate when the unknown hits him! Presidents seldom do or become assounous with the reason why they are elected. I think Reagan and FDR managed the continuity and the obvious historical greatness but that is it! FDR indeed, though it pains me to say it was probably better than Reagan as he managed to get elected on the new deal platform plus deal with WWII (Yes I know he carked it a few months short) but be remebered for the New deal over the war at the moment anyway! Reagan was a great President also and his National Security and facing down the Commies is not forgotten by me at any rate!
353. ha ha very funny.
Love the news vids of Palin on TV wearing that big coat, she looks like she’s naked underneath!
Does anyone get the impression that something is going on?
354. I freely admit to having a few quid at the higher odds. Its not going to hurt me to lose but the plan is a quick lay off.
Joe Biden has suddenly been backed in from 1000s to 340 on Betfair to be next president.
re 335 Why? She’ll only be 69 in 2016.
365. Yeah, the BBC has liberal leanings, but only the real right-wing (the sort to think Cameron is left-wing) think it’s that bad.
363 — Right! It’s TV however.
I taught that the pragmatic goal behind the project was to “balance” talk radio, which is notoriously prominently conservative.
Guess I was wrong.
354- Mike L- the lack of liquidity on McCain means his price is volatile. Look for Obama’s price where all the cash is stacked for an indication of something afoot- if Obama moves from say 1.06-1.1 quickly you know something is happening
367. The McCain camp are as confident as Bush was in 2004. I’m confident too. Popular vote will go to Obama, next president will be McCain. I can feel it.
368. That isnt worth much in reality if theres only mere punds available.
369. A 69-year-old female president, who would be 73 at the end of her FIRST term? I think not.
373. That sort of thing would be a strong possibility - voters want change but not Obama!
373 - Not a hope!
My other bold prediction:
That’s my other big position on this election.
McCain will take Florida. The situation favors him for a variety of reasons like in 2000 & 2004.
Well worth opposing Obama around 1.3 at the moment IMO.
Is Fringe going to be the most accurate forecaster tonight???
378 OI thats my call (ooops ssssssssh)
362. Talksport is one of the stupidest stations around, pandering to the Daily Mail crowd. I remember listening for awhile and hearing the presenter describe Obama as a ‘champagne socialist’ before saying what scared him was ‘no-one knows what his ideals really are’.
370. The BBC has leftish leanings and is occasionally blatantly partisan. Channel 4 News follows an openly left-liberal agenda. Where are the balancing biases? They don’t exist. It’s not a satisfactory state of affairs.
382. Channel 4 news leftwing? I think we’re seeing a parallax error here.
378. Strong Possibility - let’s not forget Liberman, who was the Democratic VP credited with getting Jewish voters on side in 2000. It was not enough but the GOP have tended to be stronger than Dems in the Sunshine state!
321. Yeah, that works great with the BBC. Remind me, who is it who thinks the BBC is biased? The fairness doctrine is censorship, pure and simple. Everyone knows you know it, so free yourself and admit it! Fly free like a bird into the lanf of truth!
382. Yup. If Cammo is serious about not touching the Beeb (apart from sorting out the Guardian advert thing, which he surely will do) then he MUST allow editorial bias in other TV stations.
It is absurd that Channel 4 News (for instance) is permitted to be blatantly lefty, at the taxpayer’s expense, but wholly commercial channels are denied the chance to balance this.
GA
Sean Quinn : In Georgia, for example, African-Americans represented 35% of the early vote, and 25% is the historical high. If Georgia winds up with 30% of the vote remaining African-American, Obama wins Georgia.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Lancaster, eh? That’s my influence swinging it to Obama
- well, i spent a week there this summer. Nice place.
We’ve just finished in the Commons (I voted against the Government on the Employment Bill) so am going over to Morus’s election night pb.com party.
381. Its an opinion, do you have an issue with it being expressed?
372 or consider the implied probability. McCain moving from 20 to 13 means his probability increases from 5 to 7%. Obama moving from 1.05 to 1.1 would mean his probability decreasing from 95% to 91%
If they brought in a fairness doctrine for talk radio, it would be an extremely slippery slope.
Why not then apply it to newspapers?
What about Internet sites?
Internet blogs?
And ultimately public speeches - ie if I make a speech in public I have to give both sides?
Would it be Constitutional?
Oh good grief. I log on for the US latest, and we’re still debating the BBC…
386
Any radio TV station can be as biased as they like as long as I dont have to pay for it. That’s my b*tch, and why I object to the license fee. I have been apalled at some of the coverage on the BBC re the US election. There is no doubt whatsover who the BBC want to win.
388. voted against the Government on the Employment Bill
392. It wears you down Bob…
CNN Exit poll top issue economy, must be good for Obama!
393 Russell Brand?
357/371- If Rush Lenin dominated American private talk radio, the Dems would have no interest in bringing back the Fairness Doctrine, you can be sure of that. The left ALREADY has a huge presence in talk radio via the public NPR, but that isn’t enough for them. They think Rush had a lot to do with their 1994 debacle and they want to prevent that from recurring.
Greetings from sunny Ohio (and it is rather sunny - in the 70s Fahrenheit).
I’m in or around Clark County and I’ve got to admit that I don’t have much on-the-ground information, only having landed a couple of hours ago.
My only rather weak anecdote is that the hotel desk clerk, a McCain supporter, reckons that Obama’s got Ohio and possibly even the entire Dayton area.
I’m off out to a bar to watch the results come in.
399- Still a long time before the results… My election night party in DC will only start at 8 pm EST
393- That’s the sad irony of it… the Dems want to shut down PRIVATE conservative opinion, which can only exist because there’s a demand for it in the market place. However, they don’t want to touch the publicly-funded propaganda networks, for which there is no comparable demand (in fact, I expect NPR to get a healthy injection of new cash to boost its efforts to convert the nation to Obamamania).
393. There is a marked difference between US centre and UK centre though. If the BBC was UK centre then it’d be left of the US centre and the Democrats would be closer. So being UK unbiased they’d be US biased if you see what I mean.
244 “If you vote McCain. You have no brain.”
The abuse that Democrats give is responsible for the distorted polls. Remember Obama’s “Get in their face”.
Democrats, Socialists and Liberal Bigots do not deserve power. They are too full of hate.
Blackie Lawless of W.A.S.P. endorses McCain. Hammer blow for Obama.
http://www.knac.com/article.asp?ArticleID=6629
400,
I guess that means a lot of drinking time
(I’m still partly on UK time; this will help me adjust to the jet lag - at least, that’s my excuse …)
Drudge says exit polls suggest 58 Dem Senate seats…
re 388 has the worm turned? Anyone checked Nick’s latest price on the next PM market!
406 Dont expect exit polls to be so accurate. The real result comes out sooon enough.
403- I think you might have to tune in to Fox to see some real hatred.
The Democrats have been too soft for too long dealing with muppets like your good self.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/how-early-voting-changed-game-in-2008.html
Wow, after all that early voting went up by only 2.5% (and might go down if normal voting turnout goes up).
I mean of course relative to total turnout.
Disgraceful scenes from Obama supporters:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neGbKHyGuHU
409- Tyson- To be honest, MSNBC and Fox share the same level of stridency and contempt for the opposing side.
What time will the exit polls be coming out?
409- Time for the crackdown! Unity by force and change by executive order! No more Mr. Nice Guy!!!
North Carolina
went to volunteer for the Obama campaign here in Charlotte, NC at 9:00am. By the time I got there, they had ran out of stuff for the volunteers to do. I asked if I could canvass - covered. I asked if I could take people to their poll precinct - covered. I ask if I could go to the polling places and help people if there were any problems - covered. I ask if I could make phone calls - all of the phone lines were taken up so I used my cell phone. After waiting for an hour, they found a neighborhood that I could canvass. I canvassed 27 houses. 13 of them had already voted and were eager to tell me that they voted for Obama. They also thanked me for the work I was doing. 2 weren’t so friendly and wouldn’t tell me anything and 2 weren’t home so I left a friendly reminder on the door.
If this is like anything that is going on across the country, Obama has ground game unlike anything ever seen before and people are jazzed up about it.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/
414 - They are coming out on CNN already… just the downstream stuff
413. I don’t think anyone matches Fox for bias or hate. Or lack of journalistic ethics. Remember when they ‘accidentally’ changed the party of a disgraced politician on their news reports.
You can pretty much take 5% off the Dems margin so it looks like 54-56 seats.
413. Sorry, who is the morning host on MSNBC?
The dictatorship of Cool
Been almost no movement on markets all day, other than the slight natural drift to Obama you’d expect given a lack of new info.
They must be keeping the exit polls really, really tightly guarded.
409. Ah the wannabe political commissar/executioner speaks…
413- Chris- actually to equivocate Fox to MSNBC shows more about your own political leanings than anything else.
I couldn’t imagine any liberal media mainstream TV outlet behaving on par with Fox.
Do they announce result in some states before other states polling stations are cloesdor do they wait till all polling stations are closed before any results are given?
419. Hmm. Really? That’s a lot lower than most predictions. Coud this be a sign …
417. The get them out in dribs and drabs them? In this country, you don’t see a sniff of an exit poll until 10:01pm.
Only 30 mins to the AVE IT PROJECTION….
420- So? Do you really think Scarborough leads the political coverage on MSNBC? I’m pro-Obama but framckly the coverage of conventions by MSNBC was laughably partisan. CNN was way better and the less-biased.
OOH the GOPTRUST just showed the Wright ad here in MN - wonder if it was a national ad - won’t have any appeal in the Minnesota area - surprised they are still broadcasting them … yikes
427 but its only rubbish like important issues, who gets excited by what - not proper information.
You will have to wait for midnight GMT for that….
403
Obviously we don’t share the same sense of humour; than God for the Tysons and Ave its of this site.
Malcolm
New thread - Welcome to election night on PB?
410. I think early voting went up far more than that.
If you look at the table, the numbers are totally blank for many States for 2008. If you look at States where figures are in for 2008, they are up far more than 2.5%.
424- Tyson
Don’t extrapolate on my political leanings. As the poster formerly known as Chris(from Paris) I am a right-wing Frenchman, which means probably the centre of the US Democratic party.
I hope that Obama will win tonight but the demonization of all things Fox from europeans is boring me. I live in the US, read the Washingotn Post, listen to NPR amd watch CNN, my media world is 100% pro-Obama, as the one af many Americans. The influence of Fox is very much exagerated. Fact:most people never watch it.
Fox ‘Strategy Room’?
Is the name of the show based on CNN’s ‘Situation Room’???!
Can’t fault the blonde girl presenting……
Haha, welcome to the world of early exit polls. 27% have been contacted by the Obama campaign, voters with Iraq as a top priority vote for Obama 2:1, more respondents are afraid of a McCain victory than of an Obama victory.
If anything, I take that as evidence that early voting doesn’t change much about the fact that early exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate (students etc.). Better ignore!
On a personal note… I really don’t think it adds much to the site if emotions run too high. There’ll be plenty of that in the partisan blogosphere.
415 I was interested by your comments about Murtha, a couple of days ago. Having read about him, he seems to have both feet shoved down his mouth. I see his challenger is within 5% in the latest poll, while Murtha won by 46% in 2002, was unopposed in 2004, and won by 22% in 2006 (which must surely be ominous in itself, when virtually every other Democrat saw a swing in his favour that year).
418- Again, note the language. Fox is hate.
Hate is wrong. Like pornography (see Schumer). Ergo, it should be “regulated.”
438- Murtha’s race will be one of the most interesting little nuggets to watch tonight.