Guess which of these polls had mobile users in their samples?
November 3rd, 2008
If Obama wins big will UK pollsters have to change?
The chart is from Nate Silver’s excellent fivethirtyeight.com and shows the Obama leads from the major national White House polls colour-coded according to whether the firms do or do not include cellphone users in their samples. You guessed it - the ones in yellow did while the one in grey restrict their samples to people who could by standard land-lines.
There has long been a debate on both sides of the Atlantic over the range of telephone numbers that are used in political polling and whether the increasing proportion of people who only use their mobiles could be distorting samples. In the UK the normal approach is to take phone numbers that are listed and then for the computerised dialler to randomise the final digit.
My guess is that if the final result is closer to the top of the chart - a big Obama victory on votes - then we’ll hear a lot more of this effect in the run-up to the UK general election.
One factor in the US is that large numbers of mobile phone users have to pay both to send calls and to receive them. So if you receive of polling call on you mobile then it will cost you. But many price plans bundle in free weekend minutes and Nate is speculating over whether final polls carried out over Saturday and Sunday might reflect a different pattern with mobile users being more willing to take part.
Whatever the polling picture supports the widespread view that Barack Obama is heading for a big victory tomorrow - maybe even a landslide.
I’ll be doing a round-up of the latest electoral college voting spread betting when the markets open during the day-time.
For a full round-up of conventional White House Race betting click the panel below. This will take you to PB’s micro-site which is run by our co-sponsor, Bestbetting - the UK’s leading provider of live betting from a range of bookmakers and exchanges.
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A late-night thread, how convenient!
I’m still of the “cell phone” effect, although there seem to be good arguments for it. Cell phone users were supposed to give Kerry the decisive edge, after all. It may be true that the number of cell phone-only households has increased significantly over the past four years, but still - I believe it when I see it.
Otherwise, there seems to be a certain tightening in the polls (and I’m not talking about Mason Dixon where Obama actually improved). The numbers in Pennsylvania are changing a bit fast for my weak heart - although Obama is not falling below 50% in the averages and that’s the most important figure. Still, I get the sense the undecideds are breaking for McCain. It will probably not be by a large margin though. We had the thread about the nature of the “independent” vote in the US and possible parallels to UK 1992. A CBS poll suggests that there are not too many stealth Republicans among the independent voters: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/11/cbs_a_profile_of_the_undecided.php
My hunch is that the margin for Obama will be much better than the polls suggest, mainly because I do believe a strong ground game makes a huge difference. Either way, I’m now seriously looking forward to the day this election is over. I’ve followed it closely for more than a year now. Enough is enough.
Interesting stuff.
Putting some slightly arbitrary numbers to the things Mike’s been suggesting over the past couple of days I guess it would mean something like,
Current poll lead (see above): O +10%
Enthusiasm gap bonus: O +3%
Ground game bonus: O +2%
What happens in the electoral college if Obama wins the popular vote by 15%? I’m not sure that “landslide” even covers it…
As far as the cell-phone numbers go, it seems a bit surprising that there would be that much of a disparity between cell-phone-only voters and landline-having voters, assuming the non-cell-phone pollsters are weighting by demographic anyhow. I guess it would be something like “McCain leads overwhelmingly among people who couldn’t figure out how to use Skype, only ever called local anyhow or were too rich to care”…
1: No sign of tightening in the national trackers - see this graph:
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/11/holding-steady.html
(The site is a pro-Democrat propaganda outlet, but I’m pretty sure their numbers are legit.)
What does appear to be tightening is some of the state polling in swing states; The obvious explanation would be that McCain is spending a lot on advertising in the closest swing states in the last week, where Obama has been advertising all along. Presumably this will increase the chances of a McCain win, but not make any difference to the chances of an Obama landslide.
3-Both electoral-vote.com and fivethirtyeight.com are pro-Democrat, not sure I’d lable them propoaganda outlets though. However, they seems to keep their thoughts separate from their statsistical analysis.
2. FWIW, an Obama lead of 15% in the PV on a uniform swing from 2004 would result in O 428 M 110. (A slightly differential swing could also mean gaining Mississippi and Montana, which would make O 437 M 101).
I predict McCain 281 Obama 257 (McCain gains PA, and Obama gains IA, NV, NM, CO).
5. You’re predicting a McCain victory? In the words of Sir Humphrey Appleby, “corageous”!
The recent polling trends indicating a clear Obama victory has made be go “back to basics” over why I instinctively support McCain this year, when my previous preferences have been Kerry, Gore and Clinton and I am as against the Iraq debacle as anyone could be. Have I got this wrong? Is Obama actually going to be decent?
However my mind harks back to reading the extracts of Reagan’s diaries last year in Vanity Fair. You can criticise McCain’s campaign all you want, but at the end of the day I maintain my faith in his integrity, and am sceptical of Obama’s over-cerebral approach towards everything from foreign policy to healthcare. My instinct is to want someone who has precisely that - instinct. He was right on the Surge and he will be right on other matters including Iran. Obama, to me, seems destined to be a second Carter.
Oh, and he won’t “finally end the Civil War”!
I predict the big story tomorrow will be the “eight hours to vote” waiting in line. Republicans have no enthusiasm for McCain and I suspect many will take the view “he’s lost - why bother?” Which will be the catalyst for a major overhaul of US voting - and a massive Obmaa win. 400+ ECV’s.
pollster.com showing Obama on 51.6% - a sharp uptick to his highest ever level. To be fair, McCain has also risen, but to no material effect.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
6: The instinctive vs cerebral distinction is a good distillation of one aspect of the choice. I accept all you say about McCain’s integrity, but I think we need more cerebral, careful, level-headed politicians and fewer who go by their gut instincts and do surprising things - most especially when we’re talking about the POTUS. But I preferred Carter to Reagan for similar reasons (and I liked Reagan well enough personally), and that’s an unusual view.
Just read Morus’s comments on the cost of US elections on pb.com channel 2 - as that channel doesn’t attract many comments, a brief response here. I agree that the total cost of democracy in the US isn’t especially appalling, compared with expenditure on chewing gum or other things of doubtful value. But it does seem to me that the high threshold for being competitive at all is a major barrier to new talent - essentially you need to be rich or have rich friends to even contemplate a career in US politics. That can’t possibly be a good thing.
As a matter of interest, in Labour selection procedures you are forbidden to refer to the possibility of contributing to the cost of campaigns yourself, to prevent this sort of thing taking hold - do other parties have similar rules?
from the previous thread on pensions: whilst i don’t for one moment deny that public sector pensions are more generous than private sector ones, it seems to me that there are some glaring flaws in the analysis.
It makes no sense to say on the one hand that the average public sector pension pot is worth £400k, private sector £25k if you are then going to claim that Brown’s changes have ‘destroyed’ private sector schems by removing £16k. If final salary schemes need a 400k pot, then £16k isn’t going to make a significant difference. It’s worth about £500 a year.
Second the £25k figure must be including people who aren’t putting by money for a pension. I’m in a public sector scheme and pay 7% a year. At an average of, say, £30k that would provide a pot of at least £60-70,000 even invested in a inflation linked investment. Not including employer contributions or the possibility that the investment might actually grow.
In addition the reports included claims that the traditional claim that better pensions were the corollary of lower wages were no longer relevant because average public sector wages were now above average private sector wages. This is a misleading statistic largely due to most of the poorest paying public sector jobs being contracted out to the private sector. On a like for like comparison i’m sure that private sector wages are higher.
And finally, this “£1 trillion unfunded pension figure” - does it include the largest public sector scheme - the local govt scheme - which is largely funded? Ie. existing liabilities are already paid for so would not cost the taxpayer if all paid out tomorrow.
“But it does seem to me that the high threshold for being competitive at all is a major barrier to new talent - essentially you need to be rich or have rich friends to even contemplate a career in US politics”
No you have to be successful. Success and wealth tend to go hand in hand in the US.
What the US system does do is present a barrier to a “career politician” of the like we have in the UK.
Fivethirtyeight link in main thread is not correct - doesn’t work.
6 - I think you’re kidding yourself if you think Obama will be a second Carter. Obama may or may not turn out to be a good President, but Carter was the sort of guy who people didn’t notice entering the room. A very decent man with zero X-factor. If Obama wins, let me predict right now that no serious Republican will even stand in 2012. It will be like 1996 with a rag-bag of has-beens, kooks and nobodies.
I also feel that this campaign has stripped McCain of his dignity towards the end of a glittering career (inside politics and outside). That’s sad. Would the “real McCain” have run the Rovian campaign he has? Would he have pandered to the right of his party? Would he have chosen Palin? Would he have flailed wildly in the chase for advantage over the economic crisis? No way - it has been a sorry sight.
Of course race has nothing to do with it…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7704636.stm
On cell phones - by which do we mean mobiles? Anyway, a lot of less well off people here have mobiles but no land lines - especially many on benefits - how does that work into the argument?
Japan is another country where you need to be able to bring quite a bit of money to the table personally to have much hope of getting elected. I suspect that what the US and Japan share and Western Europe generally doesn’t is that the political system is more centred around individuals than around parties. That has a few effects on money and the political system:
- The party isn’t set up to fund the candidate, so the candidate needs to be able to fund themselves.
- The benefits of fundraising all go to the person doing it, and the risk of getting caught is lower because it doesn’t cause an interesting national story. That makes it more attractive to candidates to do dodgy things to raise money.
- Individuals need their own brand rather than just relying on the party franchise. In the grand scheme of things, building several thousand personal brands nationwide rather than just two or three party ones has to be less efficient, and presumably costs more.
JohnLoony’s prediction is bogus crap…
12 - What? There are loads of career politicians in the US. Lots of them enter young and, when they get to the US Senate, the only way they leave is in a pine box.
I think Obama and Biden are good candidates. But they are both, particularly Biden, classic career politicians.
It’s very hard to determine how seriously we can take mobile voters. It might sound strange, but asking someone in the middle of their busy day at work who they will be voting for surely opens up a huge element of doubt about how likely they are to vote and who they will vote for. It’s very different from calling someone at home in the evening.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
18 - James i was specifically referring to the sort of person who enters politics straight out of university.
Obama didn’t enter politics until his late 30s.
19 - But why would that consistently favour Obama? If you’re going to run the argument you need to identify some credible consistent bias.
Surely it’s better to poll the group than not. There are a whole category of people who either have no landline, or aren’t the ‘phones primary user, or who are rarely at home until 9pm as they have an active social life. Those people are demonstrably different in important senses and may (or may not) have different preferences electorally.
20 - He was 36 and had been on the political scene in Chicago for a while. That’s a pretty common age to be first elected in the UK. There are one or two 20-somethings in Parliament (and fair enough, they need representing) but it is hardly common.
Biden entered the US Senate at 30 which I believe is the minimum age (not sure).
LBJ (for example) entered the Texas House of Representatives at 29.
Is there any guarantee that BO will stop shouting at me after tomorrow?
23: Are you sure he’s shouting at you? Is your first name “Change” by any chance? If so, I can see how some confusion might have arisen.
David Cameron thinks the BBC should rely on their Kudos not big wages to attract talent. Sterling Moss thinks the government should put a cap on Lewis Hamiltons tax to attract him back to the UK……
You really couldn’t make it up.
Gabble Check List for Monday, November 03, 2008
FTSE 100 opens at 4377.34 - and is already on the way up!
Will it be an exciting day? - 11 years of moderate growth, followed by a relatively short period of moderate recession could see the FTSE100 return to the point inherited from John Major on 2nd May 1997.
Optimistic milestones to watch for:
4455.60 - up 78.26 (1.79%) to reach 2nd May 1997 level
5385.90 - up 1008.56 (23.04%) to come out of current bear market
5851.31 - up 1426.68 (33.67%) to match CAC performance since 2 May 97
5875.74 - up 1498.40 (34.23%) to match DOW performance since 2 May 97
6330.07 - up 1952.73 (44.61%) to match inflation (42.07%) since 2 May 97
6422.49 - up 2045.15 (46.72%) to match DAX performance since 2 May 97
6527.60 - up 2150.26 (49.12%) to return to Blair’s 27th June 2007 level
6930.20 - up 2552.86 (58.32%) to equal all-time high on 30 Dec 99
Pessimistic milestones to watch for:
3460.00 - down 917.34 (-20.96%) to reach Madasafish’s interim low
3287.00 - down 1090.34 (-24.91%) to reach Blair’s low on 12 Mar 03
2780.00 - down 1597.34 (-36.49%) to reach Madasafish’s low low
2144.30 - down 2233.04 (-51.01%) to return to 28th Nov 90 (exit Maggie!)
The direction of the stock market is important for savers and pension funds over the long term, but not the main concern at the moment.
Sorry about the bold - didn’t close it correctly.
18. There are plenty of people in the States who make politics their career, but Alex is right in one sense - the kind of lobby-fodder that can frequently end up at Westminster is a far rarer sight in the US since the dismantling of the party machines. EiT makes the key distinction - the system in the States isn’t set up primarily for national parties to fund local individuals. That makes politicians less reliant on their parties and more capable of independent thought - especially where local interests are concerned - although that’s tempered by Congress’ internal rules.
Even so, the likes of Ed Balls or the Milibands are rare in the States - people who have gone from university to a party post to parliament/congress to government. The exception tends to be where there is independent money or a ‘name’. For a democratic country, the US has a lot of family concerns in politics.
The possible mini crisis for Obama in Zogby polling 2 days ago seems to be over, he now stretched beyond 50%, 50.9 to 43.8. He is beginning to move towards 52%+ by Tuesday.
Will Macee hold Arizona?
25 In normal labour markets, the first point’s not quite so stupid as you appear to be making out. I was at a gathering of HR people where I met a comps and bens person from a major blue chip company. She said that they work out market median salaries - and then pay below them, as they can attract people anyway.
Not sure it works quite so easily with individuals like Jonathan Ross, who are in very short supply (ie they are uniquely differentiated). However a major econmic downturn will mean falling advertising revenues and therefore reduced capability of commercial channels to pay for talent - and as a public sector employer, the BBC should of course exploit this to pay as little as it can.
On Hamilton, yes a low flat-rate across the board tax for everyone would be a great idea.
9. Reagan was instinctive but not impulsive, which I think is probably the most important thing with that kind of leader. He wasn’t that interested in the detail but had good people to delegate to, and providing the leader’s got good instinct, that’s as much as matters.
McCain would probably be more like Carter than Obama, at least in character. A fundamentally decent man (despite a nasty campaign these last few weeks), out of his depth who loses the authority of office early on and never gets it back.
O/T - I think it is clear that Obama will win the US election because the last 3 times there has been an F1 champion that is British has coincided with a Democrat victory in the US election.
1976 - James Hunt wins F1, Jimmy Carter wins in the US
1992 - Nigel Mansell and Bill Clinton
1996 - Damon Hill and Bill Clinton
2008 - Lewis Hamilton and Barack Obama????
[32] That’s the sort of post that drags me back here against my better judgment - a spurious correlation that stands every chance of becoming urban myth…
33 - I was merely pointing it out. Obviously it is a coincidence rather than some immutable cosmic law!
On topic - yes, there’s a whacking great difference in the polls and goodness knows what it means. In the French election last year, I was reasonably confident from a long way out that Sarkozy would win by a close but just about comfortable margin. French politics is fairly predictable like that. In the US, on the other hand, anything could happen.
I haven’t entirely written off McCain’s chances, though they’re surely pretty slight and while I win most from my betting if Obama wins big, I’ve left myself no losing position because of the uncertainty.
Most mobile-only users will be young, and we know that the young don’t vote all that much (and are probably less patient as well). Will they turn out? If so, Obama should be home and clear; if not, things could get tight. Turn-out is expected to be huge, that’s in part based on heavy early voting - but I’ll believe it when I see it. There were long delays last time and if the expectation is that there’ll be more people in 2008, there’s an incentive to vote early, even if it takes a few hours. It could be like one of these Christmas traffic rushes that doesn’t materialise because everyone’s avoided it.
That said, turnout probably will be up on 2004 - the question is how much - and I agree with Marquee Mark at [7]. America’s citizens will once again be embarrassed at the sight of this beacon of democracy failing to conduct an efficient election, with queues of people waiting for hours.
Don’t think anyone’s mentioned the final Gallup numbers yet:
O53% M42%
(Traditional and expanded are both the same because in early voting, the kind of people the expanded model said would vote did.)
They’re estimating that with the undecideds breaking it’ll be
O55% M44%
…on a 64% turnout.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/Final-Presidential-Estimate-Obama-55-McCain-44.aspx
34, no, no, it is clearly written into the very fabric of the universe :p
First post since Hamilton won. Staggering, dramatic race. I just wish McLaren would stop being so bloody cautious though. They also need to get Heike to actually achieve something, right now he’s bloody useless.
When was there last a 64% turnout in a US General Election? Has it ever happened?
David Herdson@35: Mobile-only users being young shouldn’t make a difference here because the pollsters are already weighting by demographic. (Although it means they have a smaller sample of young people to work with so the numbers jump around more.) Which deepens the mystery: How do you get such a big difference between mobile-only and non-mobile-only people within the same demographics?
How do the polls adjust for a massive increase in unemployment? In UK , a million increase (quite likely) is 1500 per constituency - 3000 voters per family, probably skewed towards towns and affecting the poorest most.This could have a massive effect in a FPTP system, at the very least influencing “likelihood to vote”.
35 - I don’t think queues are necessarily a sign of inefficiency. Turnout for decades in US elections was a little shy of 50%. So it is reasonable to plan on that basis. If it goes up by 15 to 65% then that can cause delays. It would almost certainly be the same here if turnout was substantially over what the officials projected.
Aren’t mobile-only users largely younger voters whose turnout rates are notoriously low?
38 - Turnout was last above 60% in 1968. It was 63% in 1960.
A close shave: The Dour Ditherer congratulted Hamilton after he won the title. If he had wished him well before, that McLaren play on the last lap would have never worked.
32-4. Not quite written into the fabric of the universe. Other UK winners of F1 in election years and Dem wins since 1952:
1960 - Brabham (Aus) / Dem win (rule fails)
1964 - Surtees (UK) / Dem win
1968 - G. Hill (UK) / Rep win (rule fails)
41. “I don’t think queues are necessarily a sign of inefficiency”. That is the point on which I think we’ll have to differ.
39. Are younger landline-owners likely to have a more traditional outlook on life? It seems a bit of a dodgy assumption but might explain why they could be more pro-McCain. It’s pretty curious whatever the cause.
45 - I really was injudicious in failing to have an abundance of smileys in my initial post on the F1/Democratic correlation…
46: That’s the sort of thing I was thinking, but it seems a bit odd. The data point we’re trying to explain here is the big difference between pollsters who poll cell-phones and pollsters who don’t, so I’m guessing there’s something else going on here. Maybe we should be looking at the mobile-only-including _pollsters_ and whether _they_ have a more traditional outlook on life that causes them to do a whole bunch of Obama-friendly things that include sampling cell-phone.
47. Likewise, clearly. Coincidental correlaitions do work better when they correlate though.
10.”I’m in a public sector scheme and pay 7% a year.”
Says it all really!
“It says Mr Brown’s decision in 1997, when he was Chancellor, to axe tax relief on dividends paid to pension funds has cost private occupational schemes £175billion.
This amounts to £16,600 for each of the 10.5million retirement pots of current workers. If the pensions being paid to retired staff are taken into account, it is still an average deficit of £6,000.
Mr Brown’s decision forced companies to make up massive shortfalls and began the decline of final salary schemes.”
45 Few rules are not broken but generally the taller candidate wins, generally the one with hair beats the balding one, generally the one with a British name wins - this time not all three can be met but looks as if two out of three will be.
Maureen Dowd in the IHT ruminates on where the real John McCain went and blames the neo-Rovians.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/02/opinion/eddowd.php
It was good to see him on SNL and other shows at weekend showing a bit of the John McCain we knew before the Presidential campaign overtook him. Perhaps the fact he folded so easily and played according to the Rove playbook shows he wouldn’t be a good president, not strong or secure enough in his own instincts.
O/T yet more taxpayer cash to be pumped into NR and B&B….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/3367670/Northern-Rock-and-BandB-will-need-more-taxpayers-cash-as-housing-market-worsens.html
44 - Witan - in fact, BBC Live Text on F1 reported, two hours before the start:
“1505: This isn’t strictly a celeb spot but we’ll raise a glass of virtual champagne to PM Gordon Brown, who’s sent Hamilton a good luck message all the way from Saudi Arabia.”
So the magnificent Hamilton won in spite of the SADIM touch.
Not sure if this has been menshed, but the Express poll in Glenrothes, that showed Labour ahead, was apparently done by a bunch of people with clipboards in a shopping mall.
Anthony Wells is unimpressed.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
That said the previous poll done in the same ludicrous manner did show the SNP surging. Maybe Nats and horrible smelly lefties shop on different days, or maybe the poll IS indicative, if not rigorous.
I’m still thinking Labour will edge it, and if they do I think they will be looking at an early General Election.
52 - runnymede - the report in the Telegraph:
“In August, the Government converted £3bn of its loan to Northern Rock into equity to bolster its core tier 1 capital ratio, which had slipped to the dangerously low level of 2.9pc (and now) may have to inject “£2bn pounds to £3bn more,” into Northern Rock”
must be an error.
We were assured by a member of the Government team - on this very blog - only 13 moths ago that “the cost to the taxpayer of guaranteeing that(Northern Rock) won’t go bust is simply a self-fulfilling prophecy that should cost nothing.”
(O/T 54 - As you’re here, what thinkest thou about the Gaylord’s pronouncements on your favourite broadcaster?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1884401.ece
Real Dr Martin’s? Or mere ponceybooties?
55. Yes, that’s a puzzle isn’t it?
Another reliable Labour source also informed us, when the crisis broke, that it would all be over in a few days and that bank stocks were a screaming buy. All very confusing for mere mortals like us.
But no member of the Government team would tell a porkie, surely?
Perhaps, like so much else, they just got it shambolically wrong?
5 — You’re a LOONEY!!!
55. I think it is a little unfair to the government to look back after a year and say that they were wrong then. I always thought NR would cost a bit - a couple of billion (remember that at the moment they have only burnt through the existing shareholders’ capital), it will be a bit more now, but a year ago, no one expected that the UK banking sector would need a £37 billion capital injection from the government and that a major recession loomed. Well, some of us thought that something bad was happening, but it really has spiralled.
54. Funnily enough Rees-Mogg, that most prescient of commentators, makes the same argument today. Care to reconsider?
61. But Ken there were plenty of us back then predicting NR would end up costing the taxpayer a significant amount, while the government vehemently denied it. This isn’t a mere hindsight view.
Morning all
The latest update from Nate;
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-3-am-edition-113.html
I wonder if Nate could be persuaded by Mike to write an article for us once all this is over on how the US polls performed or even do a webchat. It’s certainly been an interesting journey.
Looking at these near-final polls, it does look like game over for the GOP in PA with Obama holding a fairly solid lead. FL remains very tight but with a marginal Obama advantage.
Elsewhere, Indiana may be drifting back to McCain but Montana, Missouri and North Carolina all look to be close as well. As for Ohio, although Mason-Dixon gave McCain a small lead, other polls don’t share that view. Virginia remains in the Obama camp, albeit narrowly.
On my map currently, I’m showing 291-168 to Obama with the following in the toss-up category: OH, FL, NC, MT, MO and ND. On my current estimate, these will break to give a final tally of 349-189 to Obama.
Mike
Pew Research published a very convincing paper in September, suggesting that polls which don’t include the relevant proportion of respondents who have only a cell phone, not a landline, (roughly 15% of the adult population but as much as 30% of 18-24s)are understating Obama’s support by 2%-3%.
The key issue is not how many people only have a mobile (and the evidence from the US is that many of the people with no landline phone also do not have internet access at home, so it is a challenge for internet pollsters as well as phone pollsters), but whether this group are attitudinally different from others of their demographic profile who do have a landline. The best evidence in America is that there are attitudinal differences and therefore by not sampling mobile-only users US polls are producing slightly skewed data.
Populus and ICM have looked at this issue in Britain and established that there is currently no such problem here: the political opinions and voting preferences of those who only have a cell phone do not (currently) vary in any significant way from those of the same demographic types who have landline phone. We will keep this under regular review.
54. I read that… But he thinks Labour will shy away. I reckon they might well go for it. Early Spring 2009.
Nick Palmer and David Herdson. To an extent I agree about the difference between instinctive and impulsive, although that is largely a matter of aggression. However my main point is that it does not pay to be cerebral as President. It seems to me that very little of the President’s job involves long-term planning and strategising on domestic grand plans, but a very large amount of it revolves around being reactive to world events and saying and doing the right thing and the right time when they happen.
I think the resonance of Hillary’s very successful “3.00am” ads earlier this year is this: you can imagine Obama, woken up with a crisis, desperately trying to think about all the options before doing the “right thing”. No doubt his eventual rationale will be impeccable. But by then, and in trying to constantly keep options open and give people a chance, someone’s life may well be lost. I detect no “hard edge” to him as there would have been to a President Hillary (and clearly McCain would not lack it either). Therein lies the problem. I have images of Obama wondering around the Middle East, Iran and the Afghan, essentially wondering to himself “if the US can elect me, why can’t these guys just get along?”. A case in point for me was the Pastor Wright episode. His speech was eventually hailed as a piece of glittering, historic oratory. Yet he took days to actually come up with his (admittedly well thought-out) answer, doubtless because he was genuinely pondering its rights and wrongs.
I’m sorry and, call me cynical if you will, but this is just not presidential material. It may be his age, perhaps; but to me you go through life knowing whether someone you meet or see will be good when the chips are down and when life is not planned. Somehow I just don’t feel Obama has it.
When Truman was challenged as to why he had authorised the use of the atomic bomb against Japan, I believe his answer was simply: “I was there. I did it; and I’d do it again.”
66. I doubt up to 50% of Labour MPs will want to risk losing their seats a year before they have to, myself.
re 65. Andrew - thanks for that - very helpful.
re 67. With McCain, of course, the 3am scenario becomes 3pm - when he is having his nap! The problem of having some so old.
Hmm, I seem to have ended up agreeing with Cameron on something -see point 5 of my current update:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/467
67 - And the reverse worries people about McCain. Impetuous doesn’t begin to describe his bizarre and erratic behaviour over the economic crisis. The only consistency he has shown in the campaign is an alarming preference for tactics over strategy.
The role reversal is ironic really. When Clinton produced her ad, it was not about Obama being ponderous but young and potentially impetuous. In fact, the campaign has demonstrated that if anything the younger man is the one to over-think and the older one is dangerously hot-headed. Who would have thought?
67. Anatole - that kind of reasoning is behind my slight preference for McCain.
For me, there are some eerie similarities with the Carter experience. Back then, in the wake of a period of sleazy and unprincipled government and economic crisis, a candidate was elected who appeared to stand for a more decent and generous kind of politics - but who proved woefully inadequate to the challenges America faced both at home and especially abroad. My concern is that Obama will prove a similar figure - I hope I’m wrong.
69. Surely that’s true of anyone regardless of age? I seem to remember Dubya falling off his couch, having fallen asleep whilst watching a game of American football and eating a pretzel early on in his time at the White House. (This may be a mis-remembered Onion article)
Ha, one always forgets quite how farcical the Bush presidency has been. It was a true story:
Bush chokes on pretzel, faints in White House
Steve Holland
National Post
14 January 2002
WASHINGTON - George W. Bush fainted and fell off a couch on Sunday evening after choking on a pretzel while watching a football game, but a subsequent medical examination showed he was fine, his doctor said.
The doctor, Air Force Colonel Richard Tubb, said the U.S. President had complained of not feeling well for the past couple of days. This condition combined with his having just eaten a pretzel that he did not swallow properly caused his heart rate to slow, and so he fainted.
Dr. Tubb said Bush, who was at the White House, ended up with a cut on his left cheekbone and a small bruise on his lower lip after hitting his head on the carpeted floor after fainting.
The incident occurred at 5:35 p.m. EST as Mr. Bush watched the NFL playoff game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins. His wife, Laura, was on the telephone in the next room.
When Mr. Bush woke up on the floor, he immediately alerted the nurse on duty downstairs at the White House, Air Force Major Cindy Wright.
She found Mr. Bush’s vital signs to be normal and called in Dr. Tubb, who gave Mr. Bush a series of tests including an electrocardiogram to check his heart.
As of 7:07 p.m., Mr. Bush’s heart, blood pressure and blood sugar were all normal, Dr. Tubb said.
“I did not find anything to indicate it was serious whatsoever,” Dr. Tubb said. “He fainted due to a temporary decreased heart rate.”
He said Mr. Bush’s strenuous athletic conditioning program was partly a cause for what happened. Mr. Bush can run a mile in under seven minutes, and has a resting pulse rate of 35 to 45 beats per minute, far lower than the normal rate of 60 to 100 beats per minute.
Dr. Tubb said the slow heart rate, combined with a pretzel that did not go down properly, plus the fact that he had felt he was coming down with a head cold, caused the fainting spell.
“He was sitting on the couch, swallowed a pretzel. The next thing you knew he’s on the floor,” Dr. Tubb said.
Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman, said Mr. Bush figured he had only been unconscious for a few seconds because when he looked at his dogs, they were “both in the same position. They were looking at him funny.”
“He woke up and he has an ugly scrape on his cheek. And he is now back in the residence. He just had dinner with Mrs. Bush,” Mr. Fleischer said.
Mr. Fleischer said Mr. Bush still planned to go ahead with a two-day trip to Illinois, Missouri and Louisiana today. He said Mr. Bush would see how he felt this morning, however.
“At this point he plans to travel tomorrow,” Mr. Fleischer said.
The White House told the media immediately rather than waiting. Last month the White House drew fire by waiting a weekend before telling reporters that Mr. Bush had several skin growths removed from his face.
I have never heard of anyone only having a mobile, i.e. not having a landline. How rude! It costs loads more to ring mobiles, I wouldn’t ring such a selfish person, forcing me to spend loads of money.
But I am somewhat biased as I hate mobiles, I am forced to have a work one but i use it as little as possible. Since mobiles were invented no-one ever turns up on time for anything, they just assume they can ring you while you wait at the agreed meeting point, and say “I am running a little late”
2 days to go. Thank god for that.
The excellent “Election inspection” blog calls it 375-163 for OB
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/election-inspections-final-electoral-college-projection/
NB. Factor in that it it OB leaning but was very accurate in the HC v OB race.
54. Sean you are delusional about Labour winning this, they are going to lose , no amount of propaganda can make them win it. People know how bad it is now and how much worse it is going to be.
It is an SNP win.
[62] Perhaps Sean T is William Rees-Mogg. You never see them together.
You want a President who’ll take decisive action — I say, “It’s good to be certain, it’s better to be right.”
72. Well without wishing to flog a dead horse, I just wish they’d chosen Hillary. I’m sure I’m not alone …
78. Or perhaps he is Mogg’s daughter.
75 - I know plenty of people mainly younger who don’t have a landline. This is mainly because they are young and rent/houseshare and are frequently moving house etc
80. There we differ. I would rather have a Carter clone in the White House than an i**oral cr**k.
re 73. I think you’ll find that the older you get the more likely it is that you’ll want a snooze after lunch.
My fear about McCain-Palin is that she would only be a heart-beat away from the White House. That in itself is the single biggest reason for the ticket to be opposed.
I also worry about McCain’s temper which can explode at any time and his sudden mad gambles - like Palin or his actions over the economic crisis. He is the one with the least suitable temperament.
Can you trust a man who clearly has not got the judgement to make the big decisions?
75 - I know loads of people without landlines. It’s about 10% of households now.
But the polling point isn’t just those people. A lot of people just aren’t often at home. Others aren’t the ‘phones’ primary user (i.e. somebody else’s job to answer it).
78 - LOL! Along with the story of being quizzed by a pollster back in the drinking days, that’s a candidate for post of the week!
75 - It’s pretty common to do that in central and eastern European countries. The former monopoly telephone line providers of the communist era were so inefficient that for a long time it was far quicker and not much more expensive just to have a mobile phone.
63. Yes, lots of people said that NR would cost and I thought that too. But, a year ago the claim that it would not cost anything wasnt as totally absurd as it seems now. Hindsight is always wonderful.
Of course then you have the delusional lefties who make absurd points like NR is paying back the loan faster than expected. (So driving away the best risks who can pay is a good thing?)
84. Quite the opposite for me. Judgement on big decisions include things like supporting the Surge rather than trying to pander to populist demands to pull out immediately. That is a big, big mark against Obama in my book and as I say, I am in principle vehemently against the Iraq debacle.
84 - Have you changed your mind over Obama’s VP choice, Mike? I seem to recall you were critical at the time but that may be the way it was hyped up but turned out to be immensely dull. But dull turns out to have been the way to go. I still wonder whether he didn’t have something up his sleeve (Hillary?) which collapsed at the eleventh hour.
88. Sorry Ken I have to disagree. The argument that it would cost nothing was always highly dubious, as were the claims about a ‘high quality mortgage book’. From the beginning the government’s story about NR clearly didn’t stack up and it didn’t need a market expert to see that, just someone with a sensitive nose.
82. If they are young and move around a lot, the chances they will be both registered to vote and likely to actually exercise their vote is very very small.
92 - The likelihood of them voting is a whole different question. But you can adjust for that - you can’t adjust if you haven’t asked them the question.
In any event, as I mentioned, it isn’t just about people who don’t have a landline. It is also about people who are rarely in when pollsters call.
Good Morning fellow PBers and Jacobites worldwide !!
It’s a sad day today …. the last offering from ARSE (BUTT), to be issued shortly, for this election cycle
What will we do without a regular ration of BUTT !!
67
On the basis of the argument about instinctive means “correct”, you could argue G Bush after 9/11 was instinctive.
82. I’m in my thirties and don’t own a landline, simply because I don’t see the point of having one. If someone can explain to me why:
a) I’d want to pay another load of line rental
b) I’d want a phone where I can’t screen my calls
c) I’d want yet another bill to administer
…I’d be keen to hear it.
88. I think the issue is the risk the government has taken on, we have had a 15% drop in property prices this year, that is officially a very serious house price crash….
NR is, at present essentially dumping its good customers with rates that are pretty poor. Those that can move to another bank (ie. those that didnt make up their income claims, and arent in negative equity) are essentially doing so, with NR getting back the investment capital.
This is progressively making NR customer base more and more high risk.
We dont know what the next year will bring, this year we had 19,000 repossessions, in 1992 we had 75,000 repossessions.
re 89. Judgement for me includes things like getting into Iraq in the first place. What a total mess - and McCain was there urging Bush on.
All this based on the false assumption that somehow Iraq had something to do with 9/11. Quite pathetic.
And in the UK Brown was a supporter of this strategy as well.
95 — It’s Palin’s argument encapsulated: “Don’t listen to elitist intellect; trust your gut.” (And I’m paraphrasing that because I doubt Palin uses semi-colons.) Yeah, well, forgive my ‘elitism’ but I thought being able to act on intellect and not instinct alone was what separated us from the beasts.
“All this based on the false assumption that somehow Iraq had something to do with 9/11.”
Substitute “false assumption” with “deliberate lie”.
[96] Hmm, got me thinking. Why am I paying for a landline now I’ve got my head round using a mobile? (The internet comes in on a separate cable.)
98. Mike - do you really think a Democrat administration would have stayed out of Iraq?
79
“You must make a decision. Sometimes you’ll be right, sometimes you’ll be wrong. If you never decide, you’ll always be wrong”
That what the election is for. A President has to make decisions and the electorate has to guess which one of the candidates will make more right decisions than wrong ones.
99.
Sarah Palin has a degree in journalism, so i am quite sure she knows how to use semi-colons.
74-Even funnier was Fat Bill tripping up and breaking his leg at 2am after playing golf at Greg Norman’s house. Must have been one of those drinking games.
98. Mike, the point is that Bush has no “instinct” anyway. I do not believe Dubya formulates or even possesses genuine opinions of his own on any subject matter, including Iraq. In any case as BannedHorse says, Iraq may have elements of deliberate misrepresentation about it, so does not really fit into this debate at all.
BannedHorse, you may think that we are seperated from the beasts through that, and as a university graduate from the UK I would generally concur. However this is far from an answer as to what skills best suit the office of President of the United States. My main point I shall say again, I do not believe it is a positive thing to be a “thinker” in an executive position. Senate, fine. President, no.
102-They did illegally invade a country. And bomb the Chinese Embassy “by mistake”.
107. Indeed, the Kosovo campaign was in many ways as bad as Iraq, though that’s a whole seperate story.
107. Yes, I think there’s a pretty strong case for saying that far from the Bush Presidency marking some kind of major change in the behaviour of the US vis-a-vis the rest of the world, what we have actually seen is a continuation of the aggressively interventionist - even imperialist - attitudes seen under Clinton, Bush Snr. and Reagan.
There have perhaps been some additional rhetorical flourishes and ideological window-dressing, but these are largely irrelevant. At the bottom this is all about the US forcefully pursuing its economic and strategic self-interest in the world, by whatever means it deems fit.
102/107 - They may very well have made their own foreign policy mistakes but there is surely no doubt Gore would have stayed out of Iraq. Remember Iraq was only on the agenda because the hawkish neo-cons who were camped in the White House saw it as an opportunity to right old wrongs and engage in democracy-building.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the final ARSE (BUTT) projection that indicates :
McCain 45% .. Obama 54% .. Others 1%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 68 .. Obama 312 .. Toss Up 158
Changes Since Last Projection - No changes.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
Toss Ups Allocated :
Obama - North Carolina .. Georgia .. Florida .. Indiana .. Missouri .. Montana .. North Dakota .. Nebraska CD 01.
McCain - Arizona .. Louisiana .. Mississippi .. Texas .. South Carolina .. West Virginia.
McCain 141 .. Obama 397
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America.
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
101. Yup mine too – Virgin Media keep trying to get me to pay line rental on a phone line to add to the broadband and I say: Not thanks, I’m fine with the mobile.
104 — So a woman with a degree in journalism can’t even name a newspaper she reads?!
111 Many thanks, Jack W, for all the prognostications from your nether regions.
I just hope you are right (from a betting point of view, you understand).
Thanks Jack for making your BUTT so freely available to us all. It is a thing of great beauty and will be sorely missed.
@111:
I hope we’ll be getting an EXIT ARSE tomorrow?
Something to start our parties of with a brown bang.
Given a choice between an arse and a looney, I know who I’d go for.
New musing on whether OGH is invincible and whether turnout in the US will reach 60%
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/
115 - It will be but within 6 months Obama will have formed a Committee to re-elect. US Presidential campaigns are like Christmas they start earlier each time!
115 PtP. A sore ARSE ???
Shirley Shum Mushtayke !!!
Students would be one group with mobile phones, without landlines, and who are known to favour Obama.
Students may be the same demographic as young adults who are not at college but there are real differences.
Whether they actually vote might depend on where they are registered, as it does in British elections. I don’t know the American rules: is being in the same state enough?
@118:
JOOI, why does Morus keep posting his thoughts over on PBC2 rather than here?
re 111. Jack - is that your final call?
122 - I only post threads on the main site on the Weekends, or when Mike is away.
PB Channel 2 has a more relaxed editorial policy designed for tangental musings.
The main site should always be about new developments in the markets, price-changing news, betting-related stories or advice etc etc, and not too many lengthy, reflective, rambling pieces on campaign strategy and the history of elections!
So, when I have something to write about that wouldn’t be necessarily suitable for a main thread on the main site, I put it on Channel 2 and just let you guys know! Guest articles also very welcome - send to morus1516 [AT] hotmail [DOT] com.
122 He’s a snob.
41,46 queues in American elections may not be a sign of inefficiency but due to a deliberate shortage of polling stations in areas judged likely to favour the wrong party.
85. That’s a really interesting point on phones’ “primary users”. Surely the 18-24 year olds who answer landlines will be a skewed sample of the population group: more likely to be householders, less likely to be students, less likely to be living at home with their parents. And hence perhaps more worldly-wise / less idealistic than the age group in general - with all the political implications that carries.
Single householders are also likely to be overrepresented vis-a-vis married couples. None of this is likely to be corrected by weighting.
123 Mike S. It is !!
Intrade now touching 90. Is The Fat Lady about to step on to the stage?
126. Keep wearing the tin foil, once your let get in, we wont need elections.
test
If it is possible(I don’t know how these things work), I strongly recommend the interview on BBC Parliament - Lord Owen with Andrew Neil.Owen was very impressive and talked more sense about the present crisis than any politician in the last 10 years. Is a repeat available anywhere? It is a pity he cannot be co-opted in some function by the Conservatives.
130 My lot? My lot? My lot are punters. I’ve backed Obama and McCain and I’ll be forming an orderly queue at the payout counter on Wednesday.
“NR is, at present essentially dumping its good customers with rates that are pretty poor. Those that can move to another bank (ie. those that didnt make up their income claims, and arent in negative equity) are essentially doing so, with NR getting back the investment capital.”
I can attest to that, I moved to C&G early this year because NR couldn’t give me as competitive a rate. I moved because I could, those who can’t won’t.
132 That would be Lord Owen the hero of Bosnia?
Ladbrokes is offering 2/5 on 59 senate seats or less, yet 538 is rating the chance of 60 or more seats at 23%. This looks like a value bet to me. Any thoughts?
134
NRK is bust so Government bail it out. It’s got lots of bad risk customers so Government keep them, but get rid of the good ones so it can use the money raised to bailout other Banks/BS who can then take on the good customers…
Something wrong there.. but I just cannot see what
Latest Zogby Poll:
Obama 50.9% (+1.4)
McCain 43.8 (nc)
Of course, Zogby Polls are a bit dodgy arent they?
132. I wonder if he could be the next oily peer to join Brown’s cabinet? I’m sure he’d jump at the chance.
I must admit our General Elections look like a rolls royce service with a stubby pencil and a x.
In comparison to the shambolic long lines of people waiting to do their democratic duty two days before the election.
The USA should be shamed.
136 Not sure Whelan, but whatever you choose, be sure to check first how ‘independents’ are counted.
140 On which subject: does anyone know if there is a well-informed list somewhere of when we can expect the official results (as opposed to exit polls) for each state?
140. That would be the UK system that ‘would shame a banana republic’? They dont need queues on polling day here, as Mr Hareem has sent his thirty two postal votes off nice and early.
143 I totaly disagree our system on General Election day is fast efficent and in the main corruption free.
Is people like you who never have a good thing to say about this fantastic piece of land.
“It is a pity he [Lord Owen]cannot be co-opted in some function by the Conservatives.”
I am not sure that I would wish Lord Owen on my worst enemy ….oh, the Conservatives, that would be fine, he’ll, do a good job, just what you need!
143-4 the banana republic comments were about the postal voting system rather than on the day voting in polling stations.
There has been fraud with in person voting but it has been on a much smaller scale and it is far easier to police.
I have seen queues at UK polling stations where turnout was well in excess of expectations (90+% in a polling district). NOt of eight hours though.
144. Unless you live in NI of course…
146. Yes,
I have heard of situations, when turnout was higher then anticipated, of things going wrong…. Some areas of the country had got used to 20% turnouts, provision is based on whats expected, if turnout for one reason or another is unusually high then it can result in queues.
No doubt our system is superior, however the drive in Scotland and the london assembly elections to electronic voting, makes the system no more accountable and reliable then the US systems.
Pencil and piece of paper, with some bank staff/ council staff counting the results on the night is such a good system, why do people always need to fiddle with things??
147. Or anywhere with large immigrant populations from the Indian sub continent.
148. To try to influence the results, of course.
@147:
Vote early, vote often?
I suspect this sort of polling problem will become more of an issue in future. As mobile broadband gets better, cheaper and most importantly better known, the main reason a lot of people have for keeping the landline disappears. Inevitably, it’s the under 30s that’ll mainly apply to, as those with families have more need for a communal line.
A crazy piece of Cats and Dogs generosity on my part, perhaps, but:
I reckon that Obama will win one at least one of the states which Jack W has today allocated to McCain, namely:
Arizona
Louisiana
Mississippi
Texas
South Carolina
West Virginia
A tenner to the dogs if Obama wins at least one - a tenner to the cats if he wins not a one. Any takers?
175 on the previous thread
“Forgive me if I’m wrong Richard, but you don’t even live in this country.
by G November 3rd, 2008 at 2:12 am”
You are indeed entirely wrong. I live at Newark in Nottinghamshire and have done most of my life.
I do however travel the world as part of my work and have lived and worked outside the UK at times.
So I am ideally placed to see just how rotten this country has become in comparison to others over the last decade.
153 You’re on, Marquee Mark!
That’s a ridiculously generous offer. Only Arizona is in any doubt.
Ah well, it’s a charity bet.
Is Simon Cowell a PB fan?
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/1/20081103/ten-cowell-eyes-political-move-c60bd6d.html
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/10/26/could-it-happen-here/
148 - Scotland and London have had electronic counting which - whilst it has issues does have a major advantage over electronic voting that you have a paper trail and can conduct a manual recount in the event of a serious dispute.
The technology for counting bits of paper is pretty well established (eg bank note counters) so the technology side is to do with the scanning of ballots. You can audit the process by having a manual count of random bundles selected by the candidates counting agents.
I’m not sure how auditable the process in London and Scotland was but I’m a lot less hostile to electronic counting than electronic voting.
136 - Ladbrokes’ rules include Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats, is that right?
2/5 is value, but I wouldn’t bother with anything at worse than 1/4.
To get to 60, they have to win AK, CO, GA, MN, NC, NM, NH, OR, VA. It would take a landslide to win KY, MS (special) or NE.
Of the 9 they need to win to get to 60, imagine 6 of them are near certain (CO, NC, NM, NH, OR, VA) at about 99% (this is generous). Then imagine that (generously speaking) they have a 2/3rds chance in AK, MN, and GA.
Cumulative probability is (99/100)^6 * (2/3)^3 = <28%
I think 28% is based on great optimism about their chances: not all of the first 6 are 99% safe (NC and OR could yet lose), and I wouldn’t give the Dems far off evens in the other three (55% chance in final three would give 15% overall).
The 2/5 equates, I think, to about 28%, so it’s value even at the generous end.
111 McCain - Arizona .. Louisiana .. Mississippi .. Texas .. South Carolina .. West Virginia.
JACK W- I am going to get BUTT withdrawal symptons come Wednesday.
Arizona, Mississippi and West Virginia are going to be on a knife edge for Obama. On big on the ground push and some of these states are going to flip.
Crikey have you seen where McCain and Palin are visitiing today?
Reminds me of Gore in 2000 being the hub of activity whilst Bush thought he was coasting to victory! Obama seems to be doing the same!
O/T:http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5071413.ece
Labour to allow 30,000 jobs to be axes in the Lloyds TSB - HBOS merger. This surely goes completly against Labour’s properganda at taking the sting out of the recession?
Any truth to the rumour of Nick Palmer being spotted again up at the Scottish by-election by the way?
This could make politics a lot more fun……
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/1/20081103/ten-cowell-eyes-political-move-c60bd6d.html
What will you do now Gord?
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) — HSBC Holdings Plc defied a call from U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown to revive lending, signaling it probably won’t pass on to consumers and businesses the full impact of rate reductions from the Bank of England.
David Hodgkinson, who is chief operating officer of Europe’s largest bank, said banks around the globe are re- evaluating the price they put on risk, raising the price of loans when compared with levels in previous years.
“Credit has to be priced appropriately to reflect the risk,” Hodgkinson said in an interview today. “If interest rates are brought down significantly, then rates for borrowers will come down. But I’m not going to say it’s absolutely linear because it depends on the particular transaction and the risk.”
157 - Electronic counting was an unmitigated disaster in London.
Admittedly turnout was high, but by having the same ballot box for all three ballot papers (for the three elections - Mayor, GLA, Council), it meant they had to be manually separated, and even manually unfolded (according to one person I spoke to).
It took significantly longer to machine count than I would have expected a manual count to take. Results weren’t confirmed until well into the evening.
It seems a complete misuse of technology - either use machines to count electronically submitted votes, so the answer is available immediately without the cost of the count, and with an audit trail; or just keep doing it with paper.
Having people fill in a ballot paper with a pencil, then have to manually intervene to sort and unfold (which takes longer than counting it anyway) so that it can be read by a computer, but needs manual checking by audit trail just seems mad. It reminds me of the Law Firm Partners who have all their emails printed for them, before they scribble responses on the back and give to their secretaries to type up and send back.
158 - I think you’re being a bit generous on how likely OR and NC are to go Democrat. More likely than not but not 99% certain by any means. AK I would put in the almost certain category now, but GA I would give them a much lower than 2/3 chance (love to see Chamblis go but he is notoriously tough) and MN about 50/50.
You are right that Shadsy is counting Lieberman and Sanders. Presumably if Georgia is a run-off, they wait for that result rather than taking “on the night” results?
162. He seems to be developing into a Walter Mitty-style character.
155 PtP - game on! It will give me some reason to stay up for Arizona! (Although I haven’t given up on Louisiana, S&S’s excellent commentary notwithstanding…)
158 Morus, my real wild card for a Dem senate win would be Scott Kleeb in Nebraska - an excellent young local candidate, admittedly with a mountain to climb. But for a real shocker….
O/T Am I right in thinking that Indiana closes its polls at 11pm GMT, that is 5pm local time? If so that’s extraordinarily early.
159 “JACK W- I am going to get BUTT withdrawal symptons come Wednesday.”
Must be a way to plug that?
168 - It’s 6pm local time rather than 5pm. Yes, it is quite early.
perhaps nothing else to do in Indiana - do they go to bed when the sun goes down?
165 - Absolutely - I was deliberately being over generous to show how good a value call it is (ie *even presuming 99% in these six…*)
I assume Shadsy is doing that - there will be a run-off unless one of the Georgia candidates gets 50% or more. Only a wait of two weeks, but watch the whole Dem party get behind that one. Obama would live in Atlanta for a week to get the 60th Senator. Still, they’ll struggle to get some Dems out for a second election after Obama’s already made it.
Possible Outcomes
Chambliss wins first time with over 50%
Could well happen - I’d give it a 35% chance
Martin wins first time with over 50%
Slim chance in Obama landslide - maybe 15% chance
Chambliss wins but with less than 50%, wins head-to-head or
Martin wins but with less than 50%, loses head-to-head
Most likely - Obama moderate-sized win keeps Martin competitive, but not quite enough to win. With Obama elected, turnout falls for head-to-head, and GOP use argument about not giving new President 60 Senators to get out their base - 45% chance
Chambliss wins but with less than 50%, loses head-to-head or Martin wins but with less than 50%, wins head-to-head
Moderate win for Obama, not enough for Martin. President-Elect announces moving White House to Atlanta, and does two weeks of personal door-knocking - 5% chance
168- http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN3018757820081031
158 - Agreed - I’m amazed the polls aren’t closer.
He’s playing well in the West of the State, so if Obama can work some turnout magic in the 2nd Congressional District, I’d start to believe in him.
The polls say Mississippi special election and Kentucky are more likely to fall, but that just seems wrong.
If Obama gets that ECV from Nebraska (NE-02), I’d bet at anything above evens on Kleeb getting in.
O/T Not terribly illuminating article from the Scotsman on Glenrothes, but highly amusingmention of an academic study that suggests BNP and SNP voters are the most stupid…
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Glenrothes-byelection-Activists-flood-in.4652904.jp
Greens are the brightest voters, says poll.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
No surprises that the BNP’s have the lowest IQ.
@156:
Maybe the parties should allow the great British public choose our leaders via some sort of “Hack Idol” Prime Time TV show.
re 2 What happens in the electoral college if Obama wins the popular vote by 15%? I’m not sure that “landslide” even covers it…
I did post a UNS calculator for EVs a few days ago. I can’t find it using search archives, but perhaps someone more clued up in using the search engine could find it.
@176:
It’s suggesting that Tory, Labour and Lib Dem supporters are all of above-average intelligence. Doesn’t this strike you as a little… odd?
176. Green = educated fascism bnp= popular fascism
The consequences are the same.
179 Not at all, Martin. Everyone knows that, under Labour, ability has improved across the board. Just look at the A Level results.
181, agreed. Labour’s educational achievements are doubleplusgood. Likewise foreign policy, our war against Afghanistan/Iraq/Saddam/the Taliban/Eastasia is going splendidly.
Lets see if I have the times righ, ignoring states that Obama/McCain will almost certainly win. (Although my idea of that is probably different than yours!)
6 p.m. EST (2300 GMT)
Indiana (most of state)
7 p.m. EST (0000 GMT)
Florida (most of state)
Indiana (western regions)
Virginia
7:30 p.m. EST (0030 GMT)
North Carolina
Ohio
8 p.m. EST (0100 GMT)
Florida (western panhandle)
Missouri
Pennsylvania [YOU NEVER KNOW!}
9 p.m. EST (0200 GMT)
Colorado
New Mexico
10 p.m. EST (0300 GMT)
Iowa
Nevada
170, 173. Thanks. That’s pretty unimpressive.
168. JackP, For people like me who want to know whether if it’s close asap and decide whether to stay up as they’ve got to work the next day, apparently the key is to watch how McCain fairs versus Bush in a few key counties in Indiana.
Bush got 74% in Hamilton county, 49% in Marion county & 63% in Allen county. If any of these counties are within 5% of Bush’s numbers then it could be a lot closer than most people on pb seem to think.
O/T
When is a target not a target ? When it’s an “ambition”
government hit the 3 million target, along with its pledge that home building would rise to 240,000 a year by 2016. She replied: ‘I think the most challenging of the targets was the 3 million, but that was an ambition actually, rather than a target.’
http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/story.aspx?storycode=6501677
179 etc: http://www.edwardwillett.com/Columns/IQ.htm
185 - I reckon Obama needs over 60% in Marion County, and over 65% in Gary County (North West) to carry the state. Bush won it easily in 2004 didn’t he?
96:
1) Line rental also covers broadband, how can you get broadband without a landline?
2) Not sure what you mean by this, do you mean caller ID? This is available on landlines anyway if you really are that paranoid. “screening calls” sounds a lot like “can’t be bothered to answer” which fits with my ruder than average stereotype of the techno-literate i’m afraid.
3) How hard is it to set up a direct debit?!
Clearly I am behind the times (this is not news to me
) but I would still take a dim view of being forced to phone a mobile number, due to the extra cost.
On topic, it would seem that there is some kind of weighting not happening correctly, or the polls should produce the same results, which they clearly don’t.
179. At a guess, voters in general probably are probably above the national average and non-voters below, so it will depend what baseline is used.
32 James
The best thing that I have read on-line from a UK site in years.
Mighty Congratulations from an old’n. Made my day.
Malcolm
191. And I can construct a sentence; I just can’t edit!
re 7 I wondered that seeing reports of people queueing in the last few days to vote. Why does it happen in the US? I’ve never had to queue to vote in my life even in seats with 75%+ turnouts.
Tres 135. What is the point of sneering, if you have no idea what he said? Infantile.
164 - there were also issues in London that not all the votes were counted. Though that can happen with manual counting and is really a failure of the count management (and oversight by the parties) than the machines per se.
My view is that it’s possible machine counting could produce an accurate result more efficiently than hand counting. Therefore it is worth pursuing.
One point I’ve never understood with London is why the starting point is that it can’t be done without machine counting. The total number of ballots which need to be counted are less than those counted on General Election night which can be done perfectly well by a manual count.
139 Peterson. Same comment.
189 (1) cable.
179. A significant determinant of IQs is social class and parental education. IQ is part nurture part nature. So those with intelligent and socially higher status parents tend to have higher IQs. These people tend to vote and the less intelligent and affluent dont.
189 - No, jon c, I share you’re frsutrations with mobiles, but it’s not unreasonable to have no landline - I didn’t for a couple of years.
Students in a different rented house/room every year are one case in point - the other is people like me who work out of town. I have a landline, and I haven’t received more than about ten calls on it this year, and most of those were arranged by text message on my mobile. It is the most pointless thing I own.
I don’t like being bothered at home, and don’t like people knowing where I am just because I picked up the phone. Mobile only is a far better way to go.
On rudeness - no: why should I pay for a landline (setting up a direct debit) just to save you a few pennies the three times of year you call me? If the higher cost makes people think twice before calling me, then all the better - less time on the phone would be a blessing! Texts are cheap (if not free for most people) - in time, we’ll all come to wonder why anyone would keep a landline at all.
195 Presumably because the ballots for Mayor would need to be counted several times if done manually due to the voting system.
145 Icarus. Same comment. We have more idiots on this site than I thought.
186 Do the Government have a calculator? House building completions this year expected to be 141,000 falling to 134,000 next year. So 3 million minus 275,000 = 2.725 million. 10 years to build those remaining homes means an average of 275,500 per annum from 2010 and Mrs Beckett is talking about 240,000 by 2016. Its an ambition that’s already been missed.
re 75 I have a mobile and a landline. The landline is only used for incoming calls as I can ring anyone I want for no extra cost on the mobile.
On the IQ scores, the above average rating scores for everyone is a bit odd, but isn’t it intersting that Tory/Labour scores are virtually identical?
188. By 21 points according to this so yes he’s got a lot to do.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/IN/
Couldn’t find Gary county on the CNN list though - does it have another name?
OT. I note that Nate Silver has rerun his simulations factoring a very long shot loss by Obama in PA. It might be a “Hail Mary” pass by McCain, but you can’t fault his logic. If he takes it and holds OH and FL, then Obama’s chance of winning the election falls to under 8%.
179, 198. Well I never, the Guardian giving credence to IQ scores.
How can that be, when IQ scores consistently show that black people have an average IQ 15 points lower than whitese, and Hispanics about five points lower? How can the Guardian be cheerfully citing tests which show the average IQ in certain sub-Saharan countries is actually below the level of retardation?
I thought the Guardian considered IQ tests to be pointless and redundant, because of these politically unacceptable results?
But when these same tests show BNP voters to be stupid, suddenly IQ results are valid and interesting??
lol.
@195:
Did you read the Open Rights Group report on the May 2nd count?
It is their received opinion that the result is profoundly unsafe in many ways.
It has been admitted that the counting machines can incorrectly count votes, with no verifiable paper trail to make it possible to even estimate the rate at which such errors occur.
Coupled with how badly trained the first-level adjudicators were… Let’s just say, I wouldn’t have too much confidence in machine counts as they are currently executed in the UK.
194. 196. You seem unaware of the deep loathing Lib Dems have for one of their former leaders…:)
201 Is that you David? Looks like the Tories don’t want you anyway.
189. Erm, Virgin Mobile offer broadband without a landline. You’d take a dim view of phoning a mobile due to the extra cost huh? If the landline companies are still doing that you should take that up with the. I have free minutes on my mobile that apply whether I call a landline or a mobile.
Regarding screening calls, can’t be bothered to answer, no I can’t when I get people ringing up trying to sell me “extended warranties” for white goods or other such nuisances.
To continue briefly flogging the dead horse that was given a passing kick upthread, there was in fact a very strong link between 9/11 and Iraq. It went like this…
The 1998 Al Qaeda ‘manifesto’ gave three reasons why Muslims should join up and slaughter evil Yankees. They were:
1) The presence of US troops in Saudi Arabia, the Holy Land of Islam. They were there, of course, as a garrison against the risk of attack from Saddam’s Iraq.
2) The UN sanctions against Iraq consequent on the 1991 Kuwait war, which were said to have resulted in the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children. Somewhat surprisingly, given the righteous outrage and the million strong marches against the invasion of Iraq that brought those sanctions to an end, nobody seemed to give a flying f**k about half a million dead and very innocent Iraqi children in the years leading up to 2003. Except for George Galloway.
3) The existence of Israel.
It’s clear that a logical response to the first two Al Qaeda recruiting points was regime change in Iraq, allowing the removal of US troops from Saudi and the ending of the murderous sanctions regime. The American administration did it grossly incompetently, for which they should be punished, but it was actually a rational act in the circumstances - so much so that I’ve got no doubt a different administration would also have reponded to 9/11 by attempting regime change in Iraq. I like to think they would have done it a very great deal better.
206. Don’t these scores also correlate very strongly with social class? Oops perhaps better not go down that route, either….
189 - When you say you “take a dim view of being forced to phone a mobile number, due to the extra cost”, you are looking at it from the wrong angle.
Perhaps many people have no landline precisely in order to avoid calls from people who are bothered about spending a few extra pennies either because they are misers or, more likely, because they are cold callers.
158. Thanks, great analysis. I’m going to give it a miss on the basis of the indies, and also as I have a fair wad tied up already…
189. I don’t bother with a landline phone but have broadband, but I don’t know if it’s a generational thing. It’s a social thing - I can always answer my mobile to a friend, but might not be in to answer a landline. In fact, no one in my house ever answers the landline and we just put it on silent. Whenever I did answer it, it was to some Chinese woman who kept telling me I had won a free holiday to anywhere in the world, as long as that place was Watford, and I would pay money for the trip.
206 - low IQ scores certainly correlate with those you’ve had little or no education.
I’m not sure that average IQ in the UK is 100. That may explain a lot of confusion about the article.
200 - most of them only need counting once (those for the top two candidates). You only need to second count ballots where the first vote was one of the third placed or lower candidates which has been 25-35% of the ballots each time). Not completely undoable.
It’s nice for the stats junkies to know how the Livingstone/Johnston second preferences panned out but not necessary for the result.
It’s more of an issue for Scotland where STV requires multiple counts - do they count manually in Northern Ireland and Eire?
The Scottish Govt has (says BBC) appproved Donald Trump’s golf course. Any Glenrothes impact?
Latest Daily Kos/R2000 Poll:
Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 45% (+1)
218 A golf course 100 miles away? Not likely.
On polling mobile numbers - how practical is it given that their isn’t the equivalent of a directory for mobile numbers. Would they just phone a randomly generated number.
220 cont. Trump may be having second thoughts anyway given the financial situation and the owners of Loch Lomond selling up.
@217:
Yes. In fact, because of the way the STV redistribution is done in Ireland (agent-chosen bundle rather than the more usual fractional method), it *requires* a manual count.
218.
This will have a large impact on The Glenrothes by election and part of thr reason the SNP will win by 4 figures
The Welfare Reform Act 2007 introduced major changes to the welfare state, this act in reallity is the death seal of the welfare state.
The governments own impact assessments states that 60% of disabled “customers” will be refused the new benefit and will be forced to claim JSA, this will put them at risk of the fit for work sanctions and the other obstacles of that benefit.
30% will be put on the reduced level of this new “benefit” which in fact will be at JSA levels, a real cut in (disability) benefits and the “customer” will also be subject to conditionality and coercion.
Only 10% will receive the top end of the new “benefits” under the governments own impact assessment. The top end will still be subject to conditionality.
There is also an indication that due to the new sanctions, a proportion will be forced out of claiming any benefits altogether.
This will be a disaster for the disabled and Scotland, this one act could lead to complete social breakdown in Scotland.
206. IQ scores are less valid for comparisons across racial/cultural boundaries as some IQ tests depend on culturally based criteria (the spot the odd one out for example) and on practise of things like mental arithmetic. It probably has more validity for comparing between white brits - although it will still suffer from the nature/nurture thing, social class, education levels etc. IQ is not a measure of intelligence, but is a proxy for it under certain circumstances. And it isnt certain that the average in this study is 100, but it will be around that level in this study.
McCain is doing campaigning tomorrow (polling day itself) in Colorado and New Mexico. Why? Colorado has already voted 69% of its 2004 total, New Mexico 73%….
I think the die is well and truly cast in those states.
The real variation in the polls has nothing to do with cellphones. It has to do with the proportions of Rs and Ds sampled. There is no rational historical basis for thinking that the Dem party ID advantage will be more than 6 points at the most. The polls pointing to a landslide are predicated on up to double this number and are therefore junk.
Chance of narrow Obama win: 60-65%
Chance of narrow McCain surprise win: 30-35%
Chance of Obama landslide: under 5%
Re Queues in the US.
In many (most) states / counties it is not just the Prez elections, there are congress and senate (1/3 of senators) plus a whole plethora of local elections (remember in many parts of the US most local officials are elected - e.g. District Attourneys, Santitation, Education boards etc etc.) plus on top of this there might be propostitions or state constitution amendments on issues such as same sex marriage. The whole election sheet can be enormous with many different races to vote on - hence it can take some time to process people through especially if turnout is higher than expected.
Which brings me on to two points:
1. would people queue for 4 hours in this country (UK) to vote?
2. I may have missed the discussion on pb, but in the past various propositions on same sex marriage on other hot topics have been used to bring out the base (and were widely attricbuted to have helped Bush in 2004) - some states are doing the same this time - have these been factored in to our calculations here?
@227:
Chinny reckon.
226 Just a thought, Marquee, but maybe he wants to stick close to home without making it too obvious he’s worried about Arizona?
218/220 - no impact on Glenrothes, but in the long term (if ever built) will have a devastating impact on the environment in and around Balmedie - destroying sevaral SSSI’s.
Although the SNP will not feel an immediate effect - it destroys any environmental credibility they had and puts the spotlight on their links with multi-millionaire donors and their impact on SNP policy. The re-regulation of buses for example long promised, but unlikely to ever be delivered given the financial contributions of the egregious Brian Soutar to the Nats coffers.
231. If you were in the conspiracy theory business, a look at the SNPs’ leader and recent policy approach might well lead to you to believe that they have been hijacked by the forces of international capital….
227 So, Aris, you reckon McCain’s a 2/1 shot and the 12/1 currently on offer with Betfair is ridiculously generous?
Guess you’ll be raising all the drachma you can to lump on.
104 Gaz
You obviously don’t read the Sun.
Malcolm
228. My understanding was there are no key “would you like the government to prevent consenting adults marrying/having sex/insert activity here” -style referenda in any swing states.
CA has the absurd ban gay marriage referendum, thanks to Arnie – which BTW has a good chance of coming out as “ban” – but obviously it is safe Dem for the presidential poll so an increase in the interfering bible basher vote is irrelevant.
Others may have more details but I’m sure I remember Ohio saying there we know such polls up there this time, which helped turn out the Rovian busybodies last time around.
As I say though, others may have more info.
AFAIK the average in IQ is by definition 100, isn’t it? Aren’t the tests normed that way?
But I am not an expert.
As for the education thing, many psychometricians would argue, quite persuasively in my view, that modern tests are designed to assess innate intelligence, regardless of schooling; they would also argue that the cultural bias inherent in tests (which used to be blatant) has been ironed out (I’m not so sure they’re completely right on that one).
Anyhow, it still amuses me to see the Guardian happily quoting IQ scores when it suits them - e.g. BNP voters are dim, whereas anyone who dared to say that IQ differentials might play a part in the educational underperforming of certain ethnic groups within the UK would be publicly crucified.
Intriguingly, the high Lib Dem IQ average 108 correlates with the average IQ of gay people, which is also about eight-ten points higher than the national average.
QED….?!
233. I was wondering whether someone should mention that.
Note McCain now available at 9-1 with Bet Internet.
Quinnipiac University (10/27-11/02):
Florida
Obama 47, McCain 45
Ohio
Obama 50, McCain 43
Pennsylvania
Obama 52, McCain 42
Anyone playing the Betfair States won market ?
Dems to win 31-35 @ 3.5 and 36+ @15.5 look good value.
236, IQ tests are constantly manipulated to keep the average at 100, with a normal bell curve distribution of scores. (However there are differences, with the Catell B having 148 as the 2% cut-off and another one having 130 as the 2% cut-off).
Men score better than women spatially, and vice versa for linguistics.
IQ isn’t intelligence, as has been said.
Regarding the SNP and the golf course: if I were a voter this would change my vote. I don’t think, however, it will have a significant impact in Glenrothes.
225. If thinking that makes you feel better, that is fine, have a lollipop.
Hmmm…
11:45pm
John McCain holds a “Road to Victory” airport rally outside in Blountville, Tennessee
1:50pm
John McCain holds a “Road to Victory” airport rally in Moon Township, Pennsylvania
4pm
John McCain holds a “Road to Victory” airport rally at Indianapolis International Airport in Indianapolis, Indiana
8pm
John McCain holds a “Road to Victory” airport rally at Roswell Industrial Air Center in Roswell, New Mexico
McCain likes Airports doesnt he!
238 - nasty poll in Ohio for McCain.
230 - That would be my take too…
239 They’d really need to pick up one of the Prairie States, Harry, but if they did, they’d be just as likely to pick up two….plus possibly Arizona.
So yes, worth a small dabble.
234. The Sun may be aimed towards people with a reading age of about 11, that doesn’t mean, however, that the reporters are lacking in ability or journalistic capacity, they are just adapting to the demands and needs of their customers.
243- Indeed. The last poll by the same company was on the 24th, and was O51 M42.
ON the vote counting. London Elects claimed it would take 3 days to count the 2.5 million ballot papers by hand. In 1992 there were 3.5 million ballots in Greater London which were all counted and declared by the following morning.
242 “8pm
John McCain holds a “Road to Victory” airport rally at Roswell Industrial Air Center in Roswell, New Mexico”
Isn’t Roswell where aliens once landed?
111 Jack W
Congratulations! For your final BUTT you have been rewarded with a couple of international awards.
In my role as:
The Official Interpreter of Likely Endemic Truthfullness
you have been chosen to receive the following:
Briton of Greatness …with Bar
and the
King Hussein Award for Zany Interpretations.
Both awards come with copious copies of out-of-date Suns and Stars.
Great work throughout Jack, it has been an honour to get to know you for the mix of serious insights and tremendous fun that you bring to PB.
Malcolm
246 - The Sun is very well written and I suspect the journalists who write it are generally more able than those writing for broadsheets.
246. aren’t jobs on the Sun the most sought-after in journalism (by far the highest readership on offer) and therefore taken by some of the brightest talents?
249 PtP Yes, but McCain needs all the votes he can get.
252- Depressing, isnt it?
247. So in fact he’s actually closed the gap a fraction – but you are saying that it’s nowhere near enough and that he’s out of time?
“aren’t jobs on the Sun the most sought-after in journalism (by far the highest readership on offer) and therefore taken by some of the brightest talents?”
No. They may have been during it’s 1980s heyday, not any more.
249.
“Isn’t Roswell where aliens once landed?”
Yeah, Barak sent his aunty to take on McCain!
@254:
Why?
At least it means they’re not reading the D*ily Ma*l.
“aren’t jobs on the Sun the most sought-after in journalism (by far the highest readership on offer) and therefore taken by some of the brightest talents?”
No. They may have been during its 1980s heyday, not any more.
258. I thought you were a Tory Martin? However I detect a distinctly social libertarian strand in your politics from your posts. Is this why you do not like the Mail despite its political slant?
256.
The sub-editors on the Sun/NoW are the most talented and their efforts bring the biggest amount of sales, hence advertising value in the country.
Journalists there, on the other hand, do not have to be so good.
254. i don’t think so. it is easy to be harsh on the Sun and its readership, when in fact i think the other papers could learn a lot from it.
it is easy reading and opinionated, certainly, but isn’t that the point of newspapers?
CORRECTION: In comment 188 I referred to Gary County in Indiana - the city of Gary (second largest in Indiana after Indianapolis) is in LAKE county (with its greater metropolitan area spilling into PORTER County. Thanks to Caveman at 205 for the spot.
————————————————————-
It takes real skill to write about (eg) politics, and to write well, when constrained by reading age requirements. From the Sun journalists I’ve met, I have no doubt about their ability, and whilst I hate to disagree with benbobjim, the young journos I know would (apart from the very snobby ones) give an arm to be at the Sun. Doesn’t necessarily make them better, but they are good.
230 PtP, the thought did cross my mind too - “quick, get him back on a plane to Phoenix!!”
255- Well there isnt that much time left. The Florida is unchanged and Pennsylvania has gone from Obama +12 to Obama +10. On this evidence, McCain needs the election to happen sometime in December.
@260:
Basically yes. Much of what the Mail stands for is personally abhorrent to me. It is a source of continual relief that they continue to support Labour.
266. They didn’t give Labour much support on the cover this morning - a nuclear blast up Brown’s rear regarding his pension tax grab.
Univ. of Cincinatti Poll - Ohio
Obama 51.5 (49)
McCain 45.7 (46)
http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/ohiopolitics/entries/2008/11/03/poll_obama_hangs_onto_lead_in.html
260- I’m a Tory and *ucking hate the Daily Mail. It is an auful paper, full of Socialy Conservative morons. But thats just my opinion
227. Eureka! Oh no, that was Archimedes…..
233. PtP, come on old chap, don’t be a flat earther. Let’s at least be scientific and put Aristotle’s logic to the test. I’ve kicked things off below
Poll Lead Spread
CBS O+13 D+13
ABC O+11
Gallup O+9
Gallup O+8
CNN O+7
Marist O+7
R2000 O+6 D+9
Pew O+6
Zogby O+5.7
Ras O+5 D+6.5
Hotline O+5
BG O+4
FOX O+3
IBD O+2.1
Anyone else want to help fill in the gaps? [R2000 are the new numbers Simon9999 flagged earlier].
The link should be to: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cellphone-effect-continued.html
209 Tres. Post up to your usual standard. Well done!
http://tinyurl.com/5sxuo6
Obama 51.5 (49)
McCain 45.7 (46)
Univ of Cincinatti poll - Ohio
Apologies for duplicate - Browser problem…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/matthewprice/2008/11/too_european.html
An article worth reading for all those who believe that you must be stupid, racist or ignorant not to vote Obama.
9. Which perhaps shows that those contesting this election are firmly part of a small elite that even in UK terms we couldnt imagine. Thus neither are outsiders battling some heroic fight from the outside, they are both part of the system.
This in itself is not bad thing, if you want to change something the best is often to be part of the thing you want to change rather than battering the walls from outside but the romanticised nonsense is just that, romanticised nonsense.
270 LOL!
Just how many polls do we reallly need?! I’m dropping out now until the outcome of the real poll is known.
Toodle pip!
Is IBD same as TIPP.If yes,they were most accurate polster in 04.A 2.1 margin can be overcome surely.
270- Caveman, you’ll be wanting to update those Gallup numbers. They posted some final predictions on their website late last night/early this morning with some impressive upticks for Obama.
277- Yes, David Lawrence, you can continue to dream…
266
Kenny Everett caught the mood of the Mail perfectly with ‘Angry of Mayfair’
@276:
COWARDICE!
260 I’m generally speaking a Tory supporter but a Thatcherite libertarian rather than a small-c conservative. So I support economic liberalism - and also social liberalism. I therefore don’t support Tory policies such as continuing the war on drugs, subsidising families even if they’re well off, ditto tax breaks for married couples etc. I support the David Davies approach to civil liberties, and I’m fairly neutral on things like the monarchy and the Union. I become more conservative when it comes to defence and crime. I occasionally read the Mail for amusement value (they give it away free at my gym).
I find it quite strange that people on this site are so prone to identifying others (or themselves) as “Tory” or “Labour”. OK so a lot of posters are politically active - but I have always seen myself as a voter who votes for the party that represents my views least badly. In national elections that is usually the Tories, although I try to vote on local policies in local elections - and sometimes vote LD as a result. Aren’t most people like that?
A further narrowing of Obama’s ECV lead reported by three of the leading websites:
538.com goes: Obama 340 : McCain 198
RCP goes: Obama 338 : McCain 200
electoral-vote goes: Obama 353 : McCain 185
236. Last time I had an IQ test it came in at 159. What does that make me?
279. The most entertaining outcome tomorrow would surely be Obama to win the popular vote clearly but lose the election. That would set a few teeth gnashing.
@284:
A genius.
Though you have to pay MENSA to be allowed to call yourself that.
285 - I think the most entertaining outcome tomorrow would be for Obama to win all 50 states and Palin to spontaneously combust but I guess that’s just me.
@285:
The other way round would be funnier.
242. Why is McCain holding a rally in Tennessee? Surely that’s safe for his ticket. I presume it’s just an easy touch-down en route to Pennsylvania, so he can add another state to his cross-country tour.
re 265 On this evidence, McCain needs the election to happen sometime in December.
It is, 15th to be precise
279-Thank you Wisbech Sands-What if my dream comes true-you can hide under the duvet for the next FOUR years.
@287:
Somebody needs to throw a bucket of water over her.
“I’m meeeeltiiiing…”
278. Thanks, you mean this one I guess.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/Final-Presidential-Estimate-Obama-55-McCain-44.aspx
I’ve stripped the 2 Gallup trackers out and replaced it with their final poll. I can see a bit of a pattern forming already though.
Poll Lead Spread
CBS O+13 D+13
ABC O+11
Gallup O+11 D+12
CNN O+7
Marist O+7
R2000 O+6 D+9
Pew O+6
Zogby O+5.7
Ras O+5 D+6.5
Hotline O+5
BG O+4
FOX O+3
IBD O+2.1
287-Palin will “combust” to a Senate seat.
284. an attention-seeker.
282. agree. blind support for a single party does not make much sense in the current age of UK politics.
choosing to be a ’swing voter’ is the logical option.
@296:
That’s fine, if you just want to vote. But if you want to actually, you know, do stuff, then you realistically need to affiliate with like minded folk.
“People who boast about their I.Q. are losers” - Stephen Hawking
294 - That’s actually quite likely.
I still think that Alaskan GOP turnout will be huge (in a state Bush won by almost 20 points in 2004) because she’s on the ticket, and that that could cost Begich the Senate race.
Stevens is so long-standing, and was so popular, that I can see him sneaking the Senate race on Palin’s coattails. Maybe a 30% chance?
If so, I don’t think he’ll win his appeal, so would have to resign to serve jail time. Even if he does win his appeal on a technicality, there is a chance that the Senate expels him on a 66-33 vote or worse. All in all, if he wins the election, I’d give him only about a 30% chance of still having that seat by March.
So 30% chance Stevens wins on Tuesday, and 70% chance that if he wins he won’t still be there in March or so. About a 20% chance that there is a special election? If there is, Palin would be an almost dead cert to win it.
250 Malcolm.
… and thank you.
284. Very intelligent. 159 is a great score.
I’ve said for several days that Pennsylvania is the key State and this morning’s PA polls are good for Obama - they show that the recent slippage appears to have stopped. They are:
Zogby +14
Quinnipiac + 10
PPP +8
Morning Call +6
The worst news is the Morning Call which is a 5 day tracker. The last 5 days of this poll have gone +13, +10, +8, +7, +6. So the latest +6 still includes the day when Obama got to +13. But still overall a good day of PA polls for Obama.
286, not a genius, but jolly clever. Cattell B has 155 as the cut-off for an IQ in the top 1%.
Has to be said though that MENSA is the ‘thickest’ of the high IQ societies. If you were properly clever, you’d join the Mega Society. I think they only take the top 1 in every 10,000. Or is it 100,000? Anyway, they’re quite selective.
High IQ is nice but no more than that.
New thread - “Is this where Gord’s second media honeymoon will end?”
266. 269. 282. The Tories on here often fill me with a great deal of optimism about a possible Cameron government. Also, many of the posts on here (other than those from the likes of David Lawrence) serve to demonstrate the vast gulf between our Tory party and the GOP. That would also explain why Boris and Cameron (privately) have endorsed Obama.
302. Thanks Mike. Confirms my feeling as the numbers came in.
293. What does the D stand for in these polls?
299-Hope your analysis is spot on.How accurate is your prediction history!!!!
305 “The Tories on here often fill me with a great deal of optimism…”
That’s a feeling I often have too, Ben, but it only needs one or two of the neanderthals to pop along and I am reminded why I usually vote Labour.
308. David, why do you want Palin to continue as a political force? She is deeply ignorant, and judging by the evidence of Sarkosy;s phone call, perhaps even a tad stupid. She is certainly gullible. Do you really want a woman like that in charge of the GOP? Really?
309. Yes, there certainly are some oh here who would make me think otherwise. For reasons of diplomacy, they shall remain nameless.
164. It was also a disaster in Scotland. Only brought in because Kinnock was on board of the company , thrown out never to be used again.
179. Very odd indeed , in fact the whole survey is a load of bollocks to put it politely.
test.
231. Dan I think given the current circumstances the SNP would have been vilified if they had turned down a supposed £1 billion development in an area that needs jobs , especially on the premise that it would save a few sand dunes. We have more than enough remote sand dunes to go around.
282. I too would consider myself a Thatcherite, rather then a conservative, small c or large C.
It only seemed to be Portillo who ‘got it’, that the consequences of unleashing economic liberalism, is that social liberalism is unleashed also, and we shouldnt be afraid of it.
Government should get out of the boardroom, and get out of the bedroom.
In regards to 305, the Republicans in the US sometimes worry me as well, they seem to have acquired a parasitic group of supporters that are eating the organisation from the inside, in the way the Unions destroyed the credibility of the labour movement, the Republicans are destroyed by the moonbat fruitloops who believe that the dinosaurs existed six thousand years ago, and that the apocalypse is right around the corner. What’s worse, is that Bush pandered to such people with incredible success in the 2004 election, sullying the reputation of the party around the world and in his own country.
Of course, Democrats have quite a lot of support from black churches who hold equally bizzare views, however they dont have a grip on their party in the same way.
TEST POST: PLEASE IGNORE!
If you dont want to look at a long list of poll closing times, look at http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/poll.closing/ this map.
If you dont want to look at a long list of poll closing times, look at this map.