Your Sunday morning papers Lord Mandelson
October 26th, 2008
The Independent on Sunday..“..Peter Mandelson’s last act as European Trade Commissioner was to advocate new trade rules that will directly benefit the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska..Less than a month ago, in one of his final speeches before being recalled to the Cabinet and after he accepted hospitality on the Russian’s yacht, Lord Mandelson announced a new EU trade strategy giving multinational companies freer access to raw materials, including scrap aluminium and natural minerals used in the production of the metal..Mr Deripaska owns Rusal, the world’s largest aluminium producer, which has subsidiaries in Europe. The companies import both scrap aluminium and aluminium-containing minerals from Africa and India. The new rules would exempt such companies from paying expensive export duties, to the anger of development charities.”
The Sunday Times..“The Russian oligarch who gave hospitality to Peter Mandelson is this weekend revealed to have been linked to the former boss of one of Russia’s most powerful criminal gangs..A High Court judgment details the alleged social and business links between Oleg Deripaska and Anton Malevsky, a Russian mobster. Malevsky was then reputedly the head of an organised crime gang and his brother Andrei had a 10% stake in Deripaska’s company…Deripaska insists that the arrangement with Malevsky was a protection racket that was forced upon him. But a High Court judge, Mr Justice Clarke, said in a preliminary judgment in July that he considers Deripaska may not have always told the full truth about his links to the mobster, who was killed in a freak parachute accident in 2001.. “
The Sunday Telegraph..“The Business Secretary, who has twice been forced to resign from the Cabinet, was in the embarrassing position of having his integrity questioned again after he admitted yesterday that he had misled the public just days into his new role..Senior Opposition MPs led the calls for Lord Mandelson to detail fully his relationship with Oleg Deripaska, the multi-billionaire owner of the world’s biggest aluminium company…It was also claimed that the Labour politician had indeed played a key role in last week’s decision by Nathaniel Rothschild, a wealthy hedge fund manager, to turn the spotlight on George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, for allegedly seeking a £50,000 donation to the Tory Party from the Russian.”
UPDATE: Big boost for Labour in Scottish YouGov poll
The Sunday Times is reporting a significant increase in support for Labour in Scotland - which could have a bearing on the Glenrothes by election. It put the Westminster voting intention shares at: LAB 38%: SNP 29%: CON 20%: LD 11%. The Labour figure is only one point below what they got in Scotland at the general election.
Live Glenrothes by election betting.
PB to participate again in the Tote Ten to Follow competition
Peter the Punter, Peter Smith, is once again organising an site entry in the “Tote Ten to Follow competition”. This was great fun last season although we did not make any money and I’ll certainly be taking part again.
Full details are available on the new PB Channel 2.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First! At 3.46am…
“Meanwhile friends of Mr Rothschild warned Mr Feldman not to sue the multimillionaire over their conflicting accounts of the discussions in Corfu. One friend of Mr Rothschild said: “It wouldn’t be a wise thing for Feldman to do, to bring this to court. Who has the more money after all?”" (Independent)
Sums it all up really - nothing to do with truth or integrity, it’s all about money.
3 Yep, some fairly unsavoury sounding stuff, but nothing as yet with which Mandy can be beaten about the head.
Is Peter making the weather yet?
Wikipedia’s entry reads:
Peter Benjamin Mandelson, Baron Mandelson, PC (born 21 October 1953) is a British Labour politician who is the self-serving Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform…
OK, I added 4 letters to make Wiki more realistic.
Apparently, Mandelson is, titularly, Baron Mandelson of Foy in the county of Herefordshire and Hartlepool in the county of Durham, so I headed over to the Wiki entry for the sadly misused parish of Foy, Herefordshire.
Bingo!
The Wiki entry for Foy makes very interesting reading and I invite all pb’c-ers to read it as soon as poss!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foy,_Herefordshire
Hmm…. So far this is Dangerous, but not Deadly for the Duchess of Mandelfoy. It is most certainly Dispiriting for Labour. They must feel like spiders trying to climb out of a bath at the moment - they inch up, ever so painfully, and then just slip right back down again.
Pretty soon they are simply gonna be flushed down the plughole.
As far as I can see Mandelfoy has now lied three times about Deripaska. First she said she only had drinks on the yacht - then she admitted she’d slept on it overnight. Then she said she didn’t discuss anything about the EU - then she admitted she did.
Finally she claimed her dealings with the oligarch only went back to 2006 - but at the weekend she admitted this was also a lie, and she’s known him since at least 2004. “To the best of her recollection”.
I don’t see now how Mandelson can get away with not releasing a full, detailed statement of precisely all her dealings and meetings with Deripaska. If she doesn’t, the story is just gonna rumble on and on.
If she does release this, and it conforms with what we know already, the story is killed and she survives. If she does - and there is at least one more major discrepancy - I think she will be en route to her third resignation.
seanT about the web-spinning Labour Government: Pretty soon they are simply gonna be flushed down the plughole.
When, when, when? - oh twenty ten, ten, ten!
When, when, when? - oh twenty ten, ten, ten!
All about money, Mirthios? Are you surprised? The Tory Party is all about money. Political campaigning nowadays is all about money. Ashcroft support is all about money and effectively buying key votes in key seats. Osborne’s Corfu socialising is all about getting more money.
A great pity this timid Labour Government still has not done anything to bring back a more nearly level playing field, isn’t it?
Returning to a topic of a few days ago - I wonder if Mike has revised his view at all of the importance of Glenrothes in the light of the news that Gordon Brown is to campaign there? Is it a sign of desperation(or perhaps of Labour confidence? )
And there was dear old Lord Hattersley on Question Time this week telling us what a marvellous and deadly politician the not so dear Lord Mandelson is and how nobody is strong enough to stand against him (meanwhile, throughout the evening, shouting down anyone else on the panel who wanted to say anything including sometimes the Chairman). Deadly to himself for sure, but he’ll be back after his now inevitable resignation.
O/T - a belated word on the interesting if bemusing discussion on recent British comedy / drama output from previous threads.
SeanT is certainly right in my opinion to point out that in the last two decades, it has been left almost solely to the Americans to produce those generational-defining sitcoms whose characters are endearing institutions and whose last episodes millions stay in for and discuss the next day. Friends, Frasier, Seinfeld and so on trounce their British competition since the 1990s. I think Only Fools and Horses is probably the last such show produced over here, ending in the early 1990s. The Office is the only one of recent times to achieve something similar although it’s comedy is on two levels and not quite as innocent and mass-market as its predecessors.
The American networks, being commercially driven, appear more immediately in touch nowadays with what their audience want on a broad level, and perhaps private funding of the BBC would help rectify that. The commissioning of new series is a luxury that needs to be thought through when you money is at stake. However what the BBC has done is allow the whole “cult” genre – particularly those shows based on the world of post-Python absurdity – have their slice of action, be it Red Dwarf, The Peep Show, Little Britain or what have you. Not sure how this would survive American-style funding because although we may not realise it, these are not necessarily mass-market popular.
Of course what the Americans are also strong at is taking new genres and really working at them to produce a multiplicity of choice until the classics some along. For instance the whole theme of “exploring a cast of characters through discrete weekly cases” which started really with Ally McBeal, then moved on through the likes of Six Feet Under, Nip / Tuck and CSI until it reached House, is an example of how the market comes up with the best shows through natural selection.
Although some of these distinctions may seem esoteric I think they reach to the heart of what the BBC can and cannot do, what it’s weaknesses and failings are. Nevertheless there are broad cultural issues too, for instance who ends up funding shows such as Yes Minister / Yes Prime Minister? Where on earth would those on this website be without that?!
C. Gifford - you mean a more level playing field than we have now with a Labour Government giving taxpayers’ money (that’s certainly mine, if not yours) to the Unions so that the Unions can increase their already large donations to the Labour Party by exactly that same amount? The five million a year would come in handy, certainly.
As a neutral in the Queen K affair, it still seems to me that the Tories have lost more:
Yes- the Rothschilds do have more money and a lot less of it will be going into the Conservative Party. There is not enough on the scandal sheet to “get Mandelson” who will probably survive. Meanwhile, it seems pretty clear that GB is reasonably confident about Glenrothes.
The mood music has changed and Labour are not going to give up without a real fight. Osborne is still alot more wounded than Mandelson.
It isnt pretty but the having links with someone who is linked with criminals isnt as potent as it looks. Politcians from over there have been doing it for years with people from over here AND they knew, which Mandelson probably didnt.
Resigning never came into it for them.
10 The Mail on Sunday story about the BBC’s highest paid presenter and Russell Brand leaving upsetting messages for Andrew Sachs, which the BBC broadcast, says more about why the BBC is failing to produce good comedy than anything we have suggested.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1080621/Russell-Brand-Jonathan-Ross-face-prosecution-obscene-air-phone-calls-Fawlty-Towers-actor-78.html
I know from experience the MoS exaggerates and chooses its quotes carefullly so its probably not the whole story but how did any producer think this is suitable for broadcast?
OT Israel reportedly going for elections.
Cicero. Osborne is “more wounded” only because he starts from a clean slate, something Mandelson cannot claim!
However in absolute terms I don’t think Osborne is at all damaged if he keeps his nose clean from now until a few years into the next Tory government. Mandelson, on the other hand, has had his card marked already for the remaining months of this one.
Zogby today brings good news for McCain:
“The race now stands at 49.4% to 44.1% in favor of Obama. Obama led McCain by 9.5 points in yesterday’s report.
In today’s single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%.”
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1611
So tomorrow a very good day for Obama is falling off, and Drudge will probably have a good chance of creating a perception of a McCain surge based on Zogby. Too bad about all the other trackers are cancelling eachother out
16
… if he lasts the remaining months of this term !
Is this a possible scenario? Story becomes murkier and Mandelson eventually forced to resign for 3rd time. Faustian bargain between Brown and Blairite ministers unravels with Mandy exit, and Brown faces leadership contest earlier than expected, as party remains c 15% behind in polls.
Was bringing Mandelson back Brown’s last card to play in terms of holding the Cabinet together and ensuring that Blairites didn’t jump ship? Banking collapse risk has (probably & hopefully) passed but deep recession remains - Labour’s poll recovery extremely shallow and no more “bounce” to come from any handling of economic crisis. If Mandy is forced out, does he effectively bring the temple down with him? Glenrothes v important now - a Labour loss could kickstart the leadership mutterings once more now that the risk of economic meltdown may be passing.
16 - end Jan / early Feb looking likely for Israel - luckily early 2009 not late 2008 as this year has been quite busy enough! Likud / Netanyahu to start as early favourites but Livni / Kadima not too far behind.
What’s happened to Cambell/Mandys fabled powers of media control? There seems to have been a malfunction this morning!
20 The Blairites realised after David Miliband’s implosion that they didn’t have a candidate to replace Brown so opening the door to Harman or others not to their liking. Brown realised he was sinking fast. So both sides could see survival meant re-creating the New Labour team and Milliband being unsuitable Mandelson was really the only strong option acceptable. He had at least tried to mend fences whilst Reid, Milburn and Clarke had been plotting.
A loss in Glenrothes might not upset the newfound stability (though I think a big SNP win will raise doubts) but a Mandelson resignation in the early months of the re-launch would.
A world financial meltdown has been averted but a UK recession, deep and difficult, looks more likely than a short one. We haven’t yet seen the full effects of the credit squeeze on things like PFI projects - the London Olympics Village can’t get funding but what about all the schools, hospitals, roads, windfarms, waste disposal units, EcoTowns etc.
O/T - surely this has to be the best way to resolve the presidential race… http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/24/breakcoms-unbelievable-mc_n_137751.html
Double carpet - 20 - “Banking collapse risk has (probably & hopefully) passed”.
I sincerely hope you’re right, but a fascinating and deeply disturbing article in today’s Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard ends with this chilling reminder:
“The threat to Britain lies in emerging Asia, where banks have lent $329bn, almost as much as the Americans and Japanese combined. Whether you realise it or not, your pension fund is sunk in Vietnamese bonds and loans to Indian steel magnates. Didn’t they tell you?”
One imagines the scene in the bed chamber this morning, with Lord Mandy of Fop and Heartlessfool having his breakfast and Sunday papers presented to him on a silver platter, his butler innocently inquiring:
“Toast, Sir…..?”
26 Imagine the scene in respective Rothschild and Mandelson homes as Mr Deripaska shouts down the telephone line.
With hindsight writing to The Times doesn’t look like it was such a good idea.
22 EdP - they appear to be limited to flooding the papers with yet more stories of legal Tory donations and loans, legally accepted.
In short, they are trying to fling as much crap around the cage as possible in the hope that some will hit the Tories.
Labour (and you can see them on the last thread) are playing the ‘no smoke without fire’ card - the party of Abrahams and Hain, Cash for Honours and Ecclestone is playing the no smoke without fire card. The party with chocolate all around its obese child mouth is playing the no smoke without fire card.
There was a link in the last thread though to how team Brown have rediscovered their powers of spin. The voters will be pleased.
UPDATE: Big boost for Labour in Scottish YouGov poll
The Sunday Times is reporting a significant increase in support for Labour in Scotland - which could have a bearing on the Glenrothes by election. It put the Westminster voting intention shares at: LAB 38%: SNP 29%: CON 20%: LD 11%. The Labour figure is only one point below what they got in Scotland at the general election.
See - http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/results.htm
That Tory figure in Scotland looks high. Where are they getting all the extra support from. The Lib Dems?
To cheer up our Obama fans
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=qyCoEEc1Un8&feature=related
In the latest Glenrothes betting you can still get 2-1 against Labour. That looks great value.
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/uk/by-elections/glenrothes/winning-party
29 Interesting that the SNP is still up 39:31 over Labour in the Scottish Constituency vote, though - and the Tories down from 20% to 14%.
First!
28 That’s my point - in the good old days the MandyBell media machine would have killed the story stone dead in one phone call. Now they’re forced to resort to the scattergun approach of dragging everyone else in to the story.
It doesn’t look to good to the voters have wised up to the fun and games of Labours spinning over the last ten years.
29 - Is there some reason why that poll refers to Alex Salmond as “the SNP first minister”, Goldie and Scott as Scottish Conservative and LibDem leaders respectively, but Iain Gray as “the Labour MSP”?
33 - it’s interesting to ask which is more important for the by-election. Remember the by-election cannot change the Govt.
32 using thr YouGov figures as current ‘fact’ - the SNP would require a swing of 8.5% to overturn the proposed Labour majority - there are 13 or 14% of Tory and Lib Dem vots to squeeze and we are entering a recession with the likely protest/stay at home as well as the usual swing away from government that a by-election generates.
Prices therefore not that unrealistic for me - SNP slight favourites.
35 yep, totally, a more toothless tiger these days
It may well be that an SNP vote at Westminster is still seen almost exclusively as a vote for Independence. Good news for Labour.
THE SNP are “still the favourites” to win the Glenrothes by-election despite months of strenuous Labour campaigning, the Scottish Secretary admitted yesterday.
Jim Murphy said his party had failed to improve on its position as underdog in the 10 weeks since the death of MP John MacDougall in August.
The admission came after Gordon Brown made his first and possibly only campaign visit to the constituency yesterday, meeting six hand-picked Labour voters for 25 minutes on an industrial estate.
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Referring to the SNP and the “final period” of the campaign, Murphy said: “They’re still the favourites. We started as the underdogs, we are still the underdogs - underdogs who lost the election here for the Scottish Parliament.”
He denied he was downplaying Labour’s chances as a tactic to scare the party’s supporters to the polls on November 6.
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2463301.0.snp_still_favourites_for_glenrothes.php
“It’s just the truth. You can call the truth a canny tactic if you want. It’s just the truth.”
32 Remember Willie Rennie. Was the Economy better yes. Was Labour’s Poll ratings far higher yes. Was the majority similar to Glenrothes yes. So why on earth could they hold now.
33 Is that for Holyrood though.
33 Reports from the Glenrothes campaign indicate its being fought on local issues - a mistake if Labour do that as then it plays into the SNP strength in Scots politics whereas Labour’s strength is in Westminster.
I assumed that internal Labour polling was good as otherwise they wouldn’t have played the Gordon Brown card with visits to constituency and Murphy’s “underdogs” speech yesterday seemed to support that view (if you are in a losing position you don’t say so).
33. It’s speculated that a lot of Scottish Tory voters tactically vote SNP for Holyroyd so as to keep Labour out.
Put these figures into Baxter’s Scottish calculator and you get (usual caveats apply;)
LAB 42 +1 (Gaining Inverness and Dunbarton East from LD, losing Ochill to SNP)
SNP 6 +1 (Gain Ochill)
LD 7 -4
Con 3 +2 (Gain Argyll and Roxburgh from LD)
Good poll for Labour, disappointing for the Nats, encouraging for the Tories and dire for the LD’s, although in an election I’d expect them to poll more like 14-15%
18 Hate to rain on your parade, Jan, but did you see this from Kos?
AZ-Pres: Hold on to your hats!
by kos
Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 04:23:38 PM PDT
Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Likely voters
McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40
Early voters (34% of the sample)
McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47
The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they’ve hinted at similar results. Makes me wish I would’ve polled Arizona instead of Tennessee.
r 41. re the comments on the article so far, 1 support Labour , 29 against Labour, 2 ambiguous comments.
Hard to see where the swing to Labour is coming from.
45- peter the punter- the poll that Jan points out at 18- McCain has a 12% lead amongst whites. Do not buy it.
Interesting to note in the Yougov poll that the SNP are still ahead at Holyrood. Even more interesting, however, is support for independence remaining steady on about a third. That clearly wasn’t the narrative that was to be expected after the silly and vituperative attacks on Scottish independence in recent weeks
Re Brown visiting Glenrothes. Labour must believe they are going to win otherwise he would not have visited.
44 - it’s all very confusing. Tories vote for SNP at Holyrood to keep Labour out. SNP vote Labour at Westminster to keep Tories out.
SNP should start organising in England!
47 Thanks Tyso but it was so far out of line with the general trend that I rather tended to dismiss it. If there were a few more similar around, yes, but despite Jan’s best efforts, it’s hard to hold out much hope for the man from Arizona.
46
I don’t think this site in anyway reflects public opinion thoughout the UK.
This whole yachtgate affair looks like turning into a score draw, Mandy and Osborne both wounded, but both will survive.
The public probably thinking, ‘A pox on both your houses’ so could benefit the Libdems.
To even it up a bit!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5010659.ece
All perfectly legal of course, but smells a bit!
OT, Wouldn’t normally bother with this kind of thing, but since Rod Crosby’s been posting occasional stuff about the bloke suing Obama alleging he was born in Kenya or something:
Case dismissed.
http://tinyurl.com/6z8544
Bloke says he’ll be appealing to the Supreme Court.
Looks like the ruling was that he didn’t have standing to bring the case, so we’ll never get to hear the judge’s verdict about the suspiciousness of differences between the English-language version of Obama’s wikipedia entry and the Italian-language one etc.
The BBC seem to be slow updating its viewers on the Mandy story , the fact that he is not having a meeting with his Russian business friend on the upcoming trade trip to Russia was I would have thought a newsworthy item going by its reporting of events that have not happened
52 The site referred to was The Sunday Herald, not pb.com.
Looking at todays front pages, I’d say that Mandelson was the clear leader in todays bad media coverage competition.
With regard to your other point, how can it smell if it’s legal?
Coldstone - ‘Spinning for Labour since the new year Zero (97)!’
49 Not necessarily. Even the difference between a narrow beating (well we’ve been written off for a total annihilation so didn’t we do well) and a rout can be important to Brown.
52 “A pox on both your houses” - both Labour and the Tories - is hoever not good news for Labour in Glenrothes…..
55 - I think people are harsh on Coldstone. He has a slightly pro-Labour slant on his postings. What’s wrong with that? It’s no more “spinning” that the many “pro-Conservative” posters on here.
Marr Show: Jonathan Dimbleby backed Obama at 15:1.
Should have gone to pb.com
Morning all, I reckon that YouGov spoke to the same 5 diehard Labour voters Gordon Brown met when he “campaigned” in Glenrothes. On the ground and in the Scottish media the only evidence is that the Labour party is becoming increasingly unpopular in Scotland and Alex Salmond still strides the stage far above anyone.
Even the Rt Hon Parkhead Smurf has disappeared from the main media coverage and he is about as good as Labour gets in Scotland now.
36 Alex, the reference to Ian Gray would be intentional. During the recent Labour leadership contest in Scotland, we and the Scottish media were constantly reminded that Gordon Brown is Leader of the Scottish Labour Party and Ian Gray no more than leader of the Labour group at Holyrood. It is this attitude from London Labour together with the insistence of some London Labour ministers like the Hon. Member for Gaydar South Wales in referring to the Scottish government as an Executive which is undermining any attempt by Labour to re-engage with the Scottish people.
As for Lord Fop, well clearly he has unleashed the Tory attack dogs and thank goodness they have got the bloodhounds out! Pay back time hopefully. Hearing Gordon Brown yesterday dismissingly state that Mandy had been cleared by EU regulators and basically how dare anyone challenge his judgement in selecting his ministers, means it can only end in tears.Labour RIP and the sooner the better.
Republicans availible at 1.50 for Georgia on PaddyPower, good for anyone who invested in the Democrats at 6.0 or higher several weeks ago.
re 41. I think that Murphy is doing the “reduce expectations” bit. The critical thing here is not who wins the seat - but how Gordon’s looks afterwards.
My guess is that almost whatever the outcome this will be presented as a “Brown” victory.
You can hear the Labour spin machine contrasting the swing with Glasgow East.
“My guess is that almost whatever the outcome this will be presented as a “Brown” victory. ”
Whatever the outcome?
58 Fair point. Apologies to Coldstone.
When was the last time that a Labour “expectations management” operation succeeded? 2001?
52 57
“A pox on bothe your houses” sums up my personal view.
Neither party seems to have learned anything from the past. NOTHING.
So I assume when we get a GE the after effect will be business as usual.
And IF politicians want to address voters’ concerns and try to re-engage — but of course that’s just spin.
I am of course an old grumpy cynic but this whiole affair just makes me realise how totally out of touch politicians are..
52
I think Scottish politics is in a different orbit! I’m thinking more of England.
55
Coldstone - ‘Spinning for Labour since the new year Zero (97)!’
I do not, have not, will not, under any circumstances impugn the motives of any poster who uses this site. If you wish to express a particular point of view I feel it is your right nay duty to do so: that why do you feel the need to impugn mine.
As I stated I felt the present situation had the possibility of benefiting the Libdems, I can’t see how that can in anyway be considered, ’spinning for Labour’.
p.s.
If you wish to, ’spin’ for the Tories, please feel free to do so, I shan’t consider that to be anything other than your honest opinion.
Campbell on Marr, is anyone offering any odds on how many times he does his sniffy hardman thing.
Independece results are as many have been predicting on here. Only 31% would vote for it, 53% against.
People are happy to vote SNP wihout being prepared to vote for independence: only 67% of SNP voters would vote yes.
7% of Tory voters would also back independence; Easterross, is that you?
I always thought Labour would win Glenrothes and laid the SNP at well below odds-on. I’m surprised they’re still odds-on and Labour at 2.3 on Betfair - value there, I reckon…
60. Totally agree, apart from the usual sychophant reporters at Scotsman and Herald , who get pasted in the comments, I see nothing changed at all. If anything Labour are more unpopular. Both the stage managed 20 minute visits by Brown and wife have been laughed at and done nothing to help. They have shown that Brown is as scared as ever and will not go within a mile of a real person in public.
This is so repugnant watching Campbell claim he felt like committing suicide over David Kelly’s death. The facts are he is sitting in a TV studio promoting a book on the back of someone else’s death. Slime.
re 63. Yes
73 - 30% defeat?
67 Coldstone, I agree with others, you put your point of view. You dont talk sh*t like Gabble and Roger who just set out to antagonise the rest of us. I appreciate your opinions even though I dont agree with many of them and I am certain you frequently disagree with me.
69 Thomas, I voted against the Scottish Parliament being set up even though I now recognise it as being an excellent institution. On principal I will vote against independence (unless Labour wins the next GE in which case it cant come soon enough) but I will work hard to make it work when it comes as I am certain it will.
These polls are always irrelevant because they rarely involve young people and most Scots under 35 see independence as being inevitable which Alex Salmond is aware of.
For 30 years there has been a tradition of rural Scots voters switching straight from Tory to SNP and back. Other than Western Isles and Dundee East, every seat the SNP held or won at a GE had been a Tory seat and indeed all their current Wesminster seats excluding Glasgow East fit this, i.e. Perth, Banff and Buchan, Angus and Moray all ex Tory, Western Isles and Dundee E both ex Labour. However at the GE I expect anti-Labour or LibDem voters to pick whichever of the other 2 most likely to kick out Labour or LibDem with a ? over Stirling and Argyll where it could be either. Incidentally the Scots Tories have been up and around 20% in the polls for much of this year and as the Tory vote is far from evenly spread in Scotland, I continue to predict the GE will throw up lots of surprises in Scotland.
New PPP poll for Virginia :
McCain 43% .. Obama 52%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Virginia_1025631.pdf
63 & 73. Agreed. But it doesn’t mean we should start supporting Labour on the spreads! All polls clearly indicate a Tory victory, most probably a significant majority. Brown has managed to get to the low 30%s at best. I know Cameron needs low 40%s or more to be sure of a majority, but that does indeed look like it’s going to happen. I expect a Tory majority of around 50-70 and am very happy with my spread positions which would give me a substantial profit if this happened. I am happy also to leave my positions open until the election - I don’t like trading and paying the spread twice!
P 16 of the Mail on Sunday has an interesting article on the “Wonga Coup” in Equatorial Guinea. As I predicted on the day Mandy returned, the was-to-be-deposed-but-survived President Obiang suggests Simon Mann has been offered a deal - grass up your co-conspirators and in return get back to the UK. Alternatively, spend the next 30 years in Black Beach Prison on the cerebral-malaria infested Bioko Island. Mmmmmm…….let me think….
Troubling for Ely Calil and his friend - you guessed it, our old chum Lord Mandy of Fop and Heartlessfool.
“It was Smelly, aka Ely Calil, who offered his west London flat to Mandelson when the then Northern Ireland secretary was embroiled in the scandal over an undisclosed loan from fellow minister Geoffrey Robinson. It forced the sale of his Notting Hill home, so he gratefully moved into Calil’s £500,000 one-bedroom flat in Holland Park.”
Although Mandy strenuously denies any prior knowledge of the attempted coup, of course.
“However, a report in the hands of the South African authorities claimed: “Calil says that Mandelson assured him he would get no problems from the British government side” and invited Calil to come and see him again “if you need something done”.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/article399180.ece
#69 Only 31%? You think after recent events, that is a bad thing? The last month or so has seen the most sustained and co-ordinated attack on the idea of Scottish independence, I’ve ever seen. By the media, by politicians and even by “neutral” political observers. Most of the attack was palpable nonsense, but on the largest section of the Scottish public - who are no Unionists - it could have had an effect. It hasn’t.
I was led to believe that independence was “off the agenda” for at least a generation. That seems hardly very likely on these recent results. Can one imagine what support for independence will look like, therefore, in more favourable conditions to it? Like a Conservative Government at Westminster.
FWIW I think any result in the referendum will be much different to the poll. The issue of “self-selecting” will come to the fore - ie it will be nationalists and Unionist switchers who are more likely to vote, than those who support the status quo.
It seems that Scots are now much less Unionist now than they have ever been, at any time in the past. That must go hand-in-hand with the sharp decline in the sense of Britishness which now doesn’t exist in Scotland. And it is that fact which will eventually ditch the Union.
Campbell nausating on Marr. Claiming the the Tories are getting away with murder that Blair wouldn’t have got away with. Blair gave 2 different policy position on the same day in opposition. Michael Howard got Campbell spot on on Newsnight.
Interesting that their top spinner says he doesn’t read the papers. No wonder the news management is not up to scratch.
67 See 64
I’ve no wish to spin for anyone - I just expect to see a level playing field. A lot of the time the narrative seems to be that everything Labour do is good, whilst anything The Conservatives do or suggest is automatically bad. That doesn’t seem fair.
Personally I consider the current political system to be an anachronism, more suited to the 19th than 21st century. If one resided in the further reaches of the UK, it made sense to send a political representative to London when communications were poor, but in an age of internet and instant messaging it’s time to move on. The Swiss have the right idea.
Lets get the snouts out of the trough.
80 - Not watching but is he still doing his “as a neutral observer” spiel?
76. It’s too early to start analysing the election campaign in America yet, but when the case studies are written they will surely describe a near-flawless Democratic campaign, combined with a huge effort on the ground to get voters registered and get them to vote. And, whilst acknowledging that the Republicans were always highly unlikely to win, they will talk of the ineptitude of both their presidential candidate and the extraordinary ineptitude of their vice-presidential candidate and the desparate tactics they used in a vain attempt to snatch victory from the wide jaws of defeat. Assuming Obama hold all the states in which he has a strong lead, he’s already got 268 electoral college votes - McCain’s got 139! Time is now running out, and with many voters having already cast their ballot, there is simply no way back now. Add the 38 votes from those states that are leaning to Obama and he’s well over 300.
(I know we know all this, but it’s quite remarkable really that in less than two weeks’ time we’ll see Obama as president-elect. I can’t wait for election night. America will never be the same again. He’s amazing…)
New Diageo/Boston Globe poll for New Hampshire :
McCain 39% .. Obama 54%
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/10/26/for_obama_a_new_cause_for_confidence___and_for_caution/
84. Turns from ‘lean Obama’ to ’safe Obama’ - game over…
82. Yes, said the Tories poll ratings aren’t good enough mid term.
79. Grandstander: Can one imagine what support for independence will look like, therefore, in more favourable conditions to it? Like a Conservative Government at Westminster.
Actually, YouGov asked that question.
If David Cameron wins the next general election would this make you more likely or less likely to back Scottish independence?
Much more likely 25
Slightly more likely 15
Slightly less likely 4
Much less likely 6
Would make no difference 51
Amongst those who said “would vote yes”: 57-12-4-1-27
Amongst those who said “would vote no”: 8-16-4-10-61
Amongst those who said “don’t know”: 19-18-2-3-58
Doesn’t look a significant enough effect to overturn a 22-point deficit, though I haven’t crunched the numbers yet.
79 I think it was very telling that in Glenrothes this week David Cameron said it wa nonsense to suggest Scotland couldn’t be a success as a separate country from England. He simple said he believes the two are better together with Wales and N Ireland. Cameron is a very saavy politician and he is an English born Scot.
Only a fool thinks Cameron and Salmond won’t work well together, probably the same people who suggested Salmond wouldnt get on with the Queen. The fact she seems to spend more time with Salmond than Brown when she meets him and that Salmond is among those Prince Charles consults on a regular basis also points to where the straws are heading in this particular wind. After all we dont have to pretend that Camilla is not the Princess of Wales to avoid upsetting some hysterical idiots, here in Scotland she simply enjoys her rightful place as Duchess of Rothesay.
86. They are good enough, considering the blanket media coverage that Brown got. If 30%-ish is the best he can do with favourable coverage, little Cameron, Osborne-gate and being called superman, it’s over. Wait until next year, when unemployment is soaring. And then wait for the election, when the Tories will get equal media coverage…
The Tories are back out to 1/3 to win the most seats after the next general election (were 1/4 in places). Free money?
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2463292.0.a_mix_of_contradiction_and_confusion.php
This went down so well they pulled it from the site, every comment showing what is thought of Labour and Alexander.
For Campbell to suggest he doesnt read the papers is absolute nonsense…. Management of the news and TV media is his raison d’etre. . Campbell wouldnt know or tell the truth if it slapped him in the face. Odious,just odious.
75. Easterross, I was only teasing! I meant no harm by it.
79.Actually, there was a question about a Tory govt. 25% would be much more likely to back independence, 15% slightly more likely. Those voters are presumably Labour and SNP, and not een all of them.
81
Every political parties supporters feel the media is balanced against them
I don’t remember during the 80’s when Mrs Thatcher was in her pomp, and the Mail/Sun etc were running negative stories on a daily basis against the Labour Party/Kinnock/loony left councils etc, Tories expressing sympathy for their plight,
p.s.
There never has been, nor will there ever be, a level playing for anything.
On Glenrothes, the other factor to bear in mind is that the Labour candidate does appear to be a very poor politician. He was magicked up by Brown, calling on him to stand as a personal favour - when none of the Labour players wanted the certain loss of the seat on their CV. I think the ability of the candidates plays to a much largr extent in by-elections. If it tips down with rain all day on polling day and is dark by half four, who is going to rush out to vote for Labour’s man?
95. Fair point. He is pretty awful. I think it will be close, could go either way, and is hard to call. But I believe Labour will hold it. 7/4 with Ladbrokes!
45. PtP - Yes, I saw the Arizona poll. Both national and local polls are pointing in both directions, and has been for the whole of October. The AZ poll is bad news for McCain, the Zogby good news.
47 Tyson, I tend not to put much weight on the internals of single polls, but to imply that a 12% lead among whites when McCain is 5 down overall makes it implausible is mistaken. McCain will win the white vote, and probably by a considerable margin. Daily Kos, having Obama up by 10-12 points overall, still has McCain leading among whites by the same amount. Gallup has had McCain up among whites by around 10 points for most of the time, although the margin has been somewhat lower the last weeks.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx
84- Jack W surveying the polling scene- the only 2 possible value bets I can see are West Virginia/ and EV votes. I still think Obama is going to make some big inroads in red states that the polls are not picking up too well. You hint at this when you identify some of the enthnicity/ voter anomalies in the polls. The Arizona poll today is pretty stunning for Obama, but cannot see him winning this one.
What are your best tips? What is your feeling?
And most importantly are we going to be seeing your ARSE at all on the day?
88. Regrading your point about young people. They break down 22 for independence, 59 against, so less keen on independence than the oldies. If there is a pattern to do with age, it just sems to be that older people are more sure of their opinions.
25. Mirthios. OT The article in the DT on forex was quite enlightening. Not surprising, but clearly one of the reasons why Sterling/Euro have been taking a pasting relative to the Dollar.
I hadnt thought through the implications of the develeveraging on emerging europe and other emerging markets - and their backers will be in trouble. Not that certain about Spain, Argentina has been a basket case since the last crash and most LatAm did put money aside for a rainy day. Emerging europe is going to be bloody and bad for Austria/Germany - so much went on property speculation. Emerging Asia is a mixed picture, the article didnt really make clear where the money was lent, but I’d guess that it didnt mainly end up in a massive property bubble like eastern europe. Still the losses wont be pleasant. It also explains why HSBC has been hit recently.
So, NickP, if you’re reading - this is one reason why the Dollar is strong. But, given the way that CDS risk is spread, we dont know where the bulk of the final risk ends up, another reason for wishing the devil on the regulators.
I don’t think the mainstream commentariat have really caught up to the seriousness of the situation. The Economist was still burbling on about BIS II. Critically, but not critical enough. I feel like swearing a lot.
So in terms of what this means - for those countries with high levels of bank debt to GDP, we can assume that the government will stand behind the banks, until repayment becomes too painful. All Eurozone countries will be unable to inflate their currency and will thus enter sovereign default. The banks will then be unable to pay and counterparty risk rises again.
A big question then arises of whether other Eurozone countries should extend their taxpayer support to countries that failed (Imagine that Iceland was an EU member and asked everyone for money.) This may be desirable (and inevitable to drive down counterparty risk and reopen interbank markets). I suspect that this politically dangerous idea has crossed some politicians minds, but they wont be planning for it. They should.
This underlines the idiocy of believing that this problem started in America. The detonator was in America - the failure of sub-prime - but everyone else was sitting on their home grown explosives - the UK property bubble (private equity lending bubble), the Eurozone investing in Eastern Europe and LatAm. And what drove this? Two things: The Greenspan put and the idiocy of BIS II. Brown can share in the blame for both and for the UK’s own little disaster.
Betting wise what does this mean? The Euro is toast. (Not breaking down, but going down.)
96. You’re just ramping - try actually supporting your view with some analysis rather than just repeatedly stating it and breathlessly adding the latest odds.
99 - if you consider one strand of the driving force behind independence to be the Thatcher legacy, then those results are perhaps not surprising.
92 Campbell has been effective though in getting the journalist commentators to examine the Conservatives more sceptically - a sentence from Andrew Rawnsley today “It feeds a feeling in the media that the Tories have been too lightly scrutinised for too long.” That stance makes it harder for Tory spin doctors to get their slant and objectives into the papers.
So the Independent and Guardian are full of stories about perfectly legal donations from companies with foreign owners - but no mention of Mittal et al. One story attempts to say that a Rothschild donation from Nat’s mother was really from Nat, even though it’s her money not his, and is on a par with the Abrahams row on basis that she only donated at his urging (and that as Nat is on the electoral roll he could have donated himself). The appetite of the press for Tory sleaze is still there.
102. Yes that’s an interesting point, I hadn’t thought of that. I definitely think there’s a generational difference that is emerging in politics. I’m 26, which makes me 10 when Thatcher went. Don’t remember her at all. There are people a couple of years older than me who also won’t remember her. I definitely think that Labour haven’t cottoned onto that yet, hence their reaction to the banking crisis. No one below thirty cares about Thatcher or Thatcherism. It’s not an issue anymore.
Hazel BLears to be on with ADam Boulton, should be a laugh if nothing else
#88 Easterross.
Sure I agree with that. The point you make about Salmond and HM is quite telling though. They do seem to have a very friendly and easy relationship. No doubt enhanced by his assertion that the Monarchy would be kept in an independent Scotland (something I totally agree with - it is purely the political union I wish to split, not the monarchical or social union). However, I guess their shared interest in the gee gee’s might be a help!
#93
I’ve seen a few polls conducted in the past indicating what would make folks more or less likely to vote for independence. A Tory Government is up there amongst them. And I think you are right. Many of the switchers will be Labour voters. I’ve often wondered why Labour seem to prefer Scotland being governed by their visceral enemies at Westminster (the Tories) rather than the SNP, or indeed Labour, having full control over all political issues in Scotland - ie independence. It seems a strange quandry.
Oh dear - someone’s really pulled out all the stops with this story -
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/article53313.ece
99. thomas: [18-34 year olds] break down 22 for independence, 59 against, so less keen on independence than the oldies [55+ 36-52]. If there is a pattern to do with age, it just sems to be that older people are more sure of their opinions.
But, of course, younger voters are less likely to vote.
There’s an absolute majority against in every breakdown except SNP voters.
80 - woody662 - Campbell “claiming that the Tories are getting away with murder that Blair wouldn’t have got away with.”
Memo to Mr Campbell:
Scotland Yard reported that detectives investigating Abrahams’ “disguised” donations to the Labour party, described by the Prime Minister as illegal, handed their main file of evidence to the Crown Prosecution Service, Scotland Yard reported on 26 June 2008.
The case had been referred to the police by the Electoral Commission almost seven months earlier, on 29th November 2007. A decision will now be taken as to whether there is sufficient evidence to charge anyone.
Any sign of a decision? Surely not more dithering? Get it sorted, soon.
97- Jan- I just cannot see McCain having more than a 5% lead amongst whites on the day.
McCain has run a dreadful, reckless, high risk campaign. His poor temperament, judgment and age make him totally unfit for office. Compare and contrast to Obama- faultless, and his victory over Hillary must count as the most impressive in political memory.
I just cannot see the White Americans being so blinkered. Am willing to put a wager on it- Obama will be no less than 5% then McCain in white votes.
107 Actually, it’s quite sympathetic to Osborne - the ugly duckling amongst swans - a poor chubby outsider who didn’t go to Eton and with the family “in trade”.
Although insisting to a hooker that you were going to be Prime Minister one day was rather a bold statement. I think Boris might gently remind him there is a queue!
My sassenach friends, lets be clear-the SNP WILL win at Glenrothes by a LARGE margin!
The evidence lies in the unionist anti-SNP propoganda of Goebbels proportions which is presently being unleashed by ALL the media upon the Scottish population!
A surer sign of desperation would be hard to imagine.
When the present unionist blitzkrieg stops, and the polls commence, the Scots will take their revenge upon the labour party, the like of which has never before been seen upon these shores!
The result will be to annihilate the labour party, and the UK will henceforth cease to exist in its present form!
There will only be two people to blame for the final destruction of the UK-Blair and Brown!
If you don’t believe my prediction, please recall the polls predicting a labour victory at Glasgow east!
106 - A Tory Government as a factor is an unknown though. If the reality of a Tory Govt is one of relative generosity towards Scotland then it may decline pretty rapidly. The SNP will have a choice between responding in kind (which harms their strategy of creating issues of conflict with London) or not. The latter is working pretty OK at the moment, but that is in the context of Labour not boxing clever.
#87 LS
Aye, it may not be, but it is quite interesting.
But as I pointed out above, I think we can look at this independence question in the face of the fact that this is probably the “bottom” of independence support, in the current climate, coming at a time when, as I stated above, independence has been subject to a quite visceral onslaught from all quarters - media, politicians and others.
In a more benign climate, with even a smidgen of positive encouragement by some in the media (a narrative which exists, but is hidden) it is likely to be very, very different.
I suspect this is not how Scottish Unionists envisaged this whole thing to play out after recent events.
100. …and in a related vein, Labour’s much-vaunted ‘Keynesian boost’ continues to unravel. Now Darling is being forced to downplay it in an attempt to halt the slide in sterling. The next step will be that spending plans will actually have to be cut back…back to the mid-70s…
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5014549.ece
112
Hopefully Labour will get stuffed, but how do you equate that reasoning with the latest Scottish opinion poll givin Labour a boost?.
Blears on Sky……. can there ever have been a more clueless, lying, thieving scumbag ever in politics? A gormless talking head…
70 Labour’s odds to win Glenrothes - in fact Betfair’s current price of 1.3/1 lags the rest of the market by some measure, with a number of the major bookmakers offering 1.75/1.
108. What I find most interesting is that only two thirds of SNP voters say they back independence. Where’s seant? This is his day!
Gosh do you remember how it was considered to be, ‘terribly bad form’ to bring class into anything connected to Dave and his chums.
The Bullingdon Club: When gentlemen fall out
Nat Rothschild was furious with George Osborne, believing he had betrayed a confidence. He exacted his revenge as only the posh can. By David Randall
Sunday, 26 October 2008
How must the floppy-haired public schoolboys of the Bullingdon Club be knowingly nodding their heads this weekend. “Oik” Osborne, as he was apparently known to his fellow members (because his “people” had less money than theirs did), was the one who, in the end, let the side down. They’d known he was an arriviste, that he wasn’t quite the full shilling, and so once, in a light-hearted Oxford moment, they’d held him up by his feet until he’d confessed, with a Bunteresque howl, to being “despicable”. And, sure enough, in the fullness of time, he’d proved he couldn’t live by their code.
Hmmm seems an awfully long time ago now doesn’t it!
108. LS where did you get those figures, anything I have seen to date gave the highest yes vote to the younger age range , with most older people against.
111 - It’s an old story from a few years ago, dragged back out into the light. Fair play to Osborne - looks like he had a reasonable time as a student. I wonder what Mandy got up to at Oxford?
98 tyson. My old friend “value” remains the key. I’m not too sure that West Virginia is it.
Look outside the box. South Carolina, Mississippi, Texas and Louisiana look much better in an Obama landslide. Good value available now and I expect their prices to narrow during the week and on the night …. Dependent on liquidity the opportunities to hedge will be clear. Also keep a close eye on the early voting returns and local ad spends in seemingly off the radar states.
I’m a little busier this coming week but the ARSE will be in flow and will issue a daily projection from tomorrow until election day. You lucky people !!
117- sp- you seem like a very pleasant person! Which pond have you crawled out from?
121. MalcolmG: where did you get those figures,
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/results.htm - as mentioned by our genial host upthread.
Hazel Blears talks sense!! Is this a new ploy by the Government? FOr the first time ever I heard this woman talk sense. I have always liked her because of her bubbly personality but thought she talked crap. Now I hear her talk about real people and issues and refuse the open goaloffered by ADam Boulton to give George Osborne a kicking.
Now if she admits The Great Leader is not so great I will believe even she could see reality ahead
58 Slightly????
surely you are a master of understatement
100 Ken, but will the euro be going down against sterling or will sterling fall furthest?
#113 They could be generous. Make Scotland completely financially independent, within the Union, of course
Including a share of the North Sea revenues.
Will they be that generous. I hardly think so.
The big political danger in these austere times are the vast swathes of electors who think politicians cavorting with multi billionaire Russian oligarchs and bankers on their yachts are not the sort of people we want as our leaders.
Not even in their wildest dreams could anyone associate Brown with that sort of lifestyle whatever his new minister might be doing. The same isn’t true of Cameron. He and Osborne are like two peas in a pod and what’s more both have form as the happy copyright owner of the two Bullingdon photos will confirm.
128 - I would like to know that. Holiday in France next June and all that.
129 - That’s only generous if you believe that Scotland is the rich partner in the union. Which might cause some disagreement.
Latest Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracker for Pennsylvania :
McCain 41% .. Obama 53%
Numbers via 538.
What is that Brazilian Parliamentary resercher Reinaldo up to these days?
123. Overnight at ladbrokes, we laid a £3200 bet at 1/16 on the republicans in texas. Unbelievably, some people are still refusing to pay attention to Jack’s ARSE.
129
From the Observer.
Nor has the case for independence been helped by the falling oil price. At $120 per barrel, accountants Grant Thornton calculated a Scottish budget surplus of £4.4bn. Running the same economic model with oil at $75 per barrel produces a deficit of £800m. Even if the balance is made more favourable by a price rise, following Opec’s decision to cut production, dependency on a yo-yo oil price isn’t a recipe for financial stability. In a time of financial crisis, stability isn’t something to be tossed aside.
115
To quote from the article you referenced:
“Some market analysts now think there could be a brief rally in the FTSE 100 before it bottoms out at 3,000. It closed on Friday at 3883.6. ”
They obviously do not see the triangle in the Dow, FTSE and Nikkei charts. The Nikkei one broke Friday and the Nikkei fell 10%.
Watch Monday /Tuesday for UK and US>..
130 Brown, Blair and Co have spent the last decade cavorting with billionaires (see Ecclestone, Hinduja etc) so it’s nothing new
‘Not even in their wildest dreams could anyone associate Brown with that sort of lifestyle whatever his new minister might be doing’ - true. Gordon was too busy taking carrier bags full of bricks to parties and ligging free beer. What a hoot he must have been.
120 Nick Cohen has a very good column pointing out that his colleagues, going on about toffs falling out, are missing the real story.
“Business journalists intervened to point out that a little more than gentlemanly pride was at stake for Rothschild. Deripaska’s money helped him increase his fortune, but the Russian was not coping well with the financial crisis. Rothschild had to attack Osborne for drawing attention to a shadowy man who had contributed towards the cost of Rothschild’s Klosters chalet”
He then points out part of the reason
“My colleagues are not to blame for pulling punches. London not only offers crony capitalists Michelin-starred restaurants, security guards and discreet bankers. Our authoritarian libel laws also attract the rich.”
I say part because, like Peston being fed information from the Rothschild/Mandelson axis, too many of them are blinded by the toff aspect, by the chance to hit Osborne, to actually go below the surface.
I must say I’m coming to the conclusion it wasn’t meeting Deripaska that was George’s mistake but his friendship with Rothschild.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/26/oleg-deripaska-george-osborne
130
What’s with all this unhealthy obsession about the so-called Bullingdon Club?
I was brought up in the mean back-streets of Ardwick and West Gorton in inner Manchester but I don’t have a chip on my shoulder and envy towards Cameron and his pals like an ex-public schoolboy like you has, Roger. You really need to move on.
130
Hitchens enjoying himself
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1080604/PETER-HITCHENS-Not-Kim-Jong-II-live-visit-Mandy.html
Scroll down for more on that photo!
120 I don’t think anyone seriously believes Nat Rothschild wrote that letter because George Osborne broke a confidence. Far more likely is that Brown and Mandelson were threatening his business in some way. Remember he is a banker/hedge fund owner and the government effectively control banking in this country now.
Also, Osborne broke the rich peoples omerta then he is clearly not in the pocket of the rich unlike Mandelson, Brown and New Labour to me that can only be a good thing.
138. I’d have thought it wise for Labour supporters not to emphasise Brown’s ‘lifestyle’ too much.
139 - A dig at Peston’s status as a “business journalist”…?
135 shadsy. The unbelievers will be punished !!
130- roger- I was with my friend from the city last night.
They refer to the Old school tie boys as “spoons”- comes from silver spoons. The Bullingdon Club quite frankly is obscene. Some privileged, frat boy secret network- yuk.
What is most interesting about the Scottish Poll is the high levels of support for Lab and LD’s among younger people and the very high level of support for the SNP among the over-55’s.
This would indicate that Scottish Nationalism is linked to the past not to the future of Scotland.
Or perhaps that Scots over 55, who have perhaps not enjoyed a successful personal life, are seeking to blame the English for their incompetence, a little like Salmond, First Minister of Iceland-on-Tweed somehow trying to blame us for the poor management of Scottish Banks while we are signing the usual blank cheque.
136
Commodity prices go up and down. If you save in the good times for the bad, like Australia gas, and Saudi and Russia, you may survive.
If like Venezueal and the UK you act like a banana republic….
Salmond is many things but not a completet idiot. he will know oil was $10 only 9 years ago and may be there again by 2010..
136
Commodity prices go up and down. If you save in the good times for the bad, like Australia gas, and Saudi and Russia, you may survive.
If like Venezueal and the UK you act like a banana republic….
Salmond is many things but not a completet idiot. he will know oil was $10 only 9 years ago and may be there again by 2010..
Of course Scottish opinion polls tend to exclude Scots who don’t live in Scotland - who may have a significant effect one way or another on any independence referendum.
146 Another sanctimonious, envious, prig.
148/9 sorry.. don’t know what happened
125. LS Thanks, goes against all previous information that I
have seen
147. Agree , I am amazed by those numbers , would have expected
the opposite to be the case. Seems strange.
123- thanks JackW. I have been hedging my outlier bets on states like Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida and N Carolina- all dead certs for Obama in my book.
Look forward to seeing your daily projections next week.
146. ‘Me and my pals from the city were complaining about the privileges of the public school boys’. Is this deliberate self-satire?
147- for years it was the opposite way round. Support was higher with younger voters and less with the older voters. The older voters feel more comfortable with Salmond, Swinney, Sturgeon etc. Still despite all the negative attacks on us for the past three weeks we are still polling 5% ahead on the Holyrood Constituency vote last year. Now off to Glenrothes to see what the mood is.
re 130 Roger - given your privileged top notch public school background, your holiday home overlooking the harbour in Villefranche, and the fact that you earn £6500 a day then perhaps you are not the one to be making these observations.
150. Alex, most Scottish people living outside Scotland will not have a vote in any referendum, it has been stated that it will be based on people who are eligible to currently vote in elections in Scotland, ie resident in Scotland.
130 Roger, what is your problem with public schools? You went to Millfield FFS!
And what’s the issue with elitism? By all accounts you’re a successful commercials director with homes dotted around the world. Certainly not the bottom of the dung heap.
120 - coldstone - carefully selected quote from quite an amusing article in the Independent (where else?) by David Randall - who went up to Clare College, Cambridge, to read economics in 1970 - the year before George Osborne was born. He is hardly an expert on the comparatively recent antics of “gentlemen” at Oxford.
Personally, I think you will meet more real gentlemen in the Bethnal Green Working Men’s Club (motto: He Who Would Hath Friends Must Show Himself Friendly).
156. It seems strange that it has suddenly changed , all previous polls have been the other way round.
147. Please update us on what opinions find in the constituency.
151- voxpop- the last thing I would like to do with my time is spend the night wearing a silly costume in a silly frat boys club, drinking champagne till I puked, snorting coke, braying and jeering, shagging and abusing whores and others, meanwhile thinking I owned the world. Cue the Bullingdon Club.
Disgust rather than envy perhaps. And quite frankly it says alot about anyone who would wish to associate with this group because most sane people would run a mile.
158 - There are a lot of people eligible to vote in UK elections who are not resident here. Political parties spend a lot of time wooing them.
On a vote as momentous as Scottish independence it will not be difficult for Scots living in England to register if they wish.
And it is frankly anomalous that English people living temporarily in Scotland should have a vote.
The only sensible option for a purely Scottish vote is to make the criteria birthright.
voxpop @ 140……….
Ardwick & West Gorton…….softies!
Try Great Western Street, M14!
Broadfield Rec, opposite the Con Club.
163 - you are aware that the Bullingdon Club is a university club???
Isn’t the grown-up equivalent the, er, City?
re 130. The fees at your school are £26,000 a year. That’s only £2000 a year cheaper than Eton.
We both come from the same part of Manchester. My school fees were zero.
164. alex: On a vote as momentous as Scottish independence it will not be difficult for Scots living in England to register if they wish.
And, no doubt, Englishmen living in England. Presumablhy, therefore, why you suggest disenfranchising many legal residents of Scotland by suggesting that the only sensible option for a purely Scottish vote is to make the criteria birthright.
Quite frankly ridiculous - and, no doubt, would be seen as systematic ballot rigging were the SNP foolish enough to try it.
157- Mike- Roger is exactly the kind of person to make these observations. Hardly then be accused of the politics of envy, or labeled as chippy.
Roger, Labour have been in to the necks in dodgy funding for years and to add to that they created a system whereby they give taxpayers money to the unions who then hand the money back to the Labour party. They also created and voted in a “communications allowance” which their MPs use to camapign with, merely taking labour off the text but otherwise camapigning. The truth is that Labour are bare faced in their distortion of the political system.
167 - Moreover, your school was approved.
163
Same behaviour applies to huge numbers of university students, except the uniforms and the type of booze are different. Where I went (not Oxbridge) the blokes collected girls knicker labels, they amassed quite a collection too!
167 - Maybe that’s the problem. Millfield was cheaper than Eton, and Roger feels hard done by.
168 - then half a dozen SNP MSP’s would not be able to vote.
164. Ridiculous. That’s like saying only those born in London should be able to vote for the mayor.
169 - That’s a fair point. Roger is also charmingly self-deprecating and probably the best send-up merchant here, possibly even excelling the legendary Adrian Harper.
There is ample proof that money and good schooling do not necessarily turn out either gentlemen or intellectuals. Roger and out.
166- alex- I know that partying, white, bullying, macho, bullshit, corrupt, degenerate, culture operates in the City. And look what that got us?
178 Maybe Labour should have put in place stronger controls than the ‘light regulatory touch’ of the tri-partate arrangement?
163.
It’s quite refreshing to see an MP who appreciates the female form for a change.
(178 - How you can say that with a divinely decadent pooch like Trotsky (BTW I didn’t thank you for the snaps a few days ago). Tyson is so so Tory though)
163 to do all those things you just need to be an undergrad - based on what I saw in noughth week.
32. It is attractive if you havent yet entered the market but having already had a bit of money on at bigger odds, I’m stranegly wary of dipping in again despite the Scotland poll referenced above.
146 Twas ever thus - that’s why they have secret societies, clubs etc.
What this story shows in just how close the interlocking circles are. Murdoch in Corfu at same time as Osborne, Mandelson, Deripaska and Rothschild, having had Cameron over to his yacht for drinks after Mandelson’s old mate Matthew Freud flew Cameron and family to have dinner on the Freud yacht. The editor of the Times’s girlfriend being the daughter of Jacob Rothschild’s partner Mark Weinberg as well as a friend of George Osborne’s.
Then of course Osborne, Mandelson, Jacob Rothschild & Bilderberg (for the Illuminati fans out there)
Mucky when business & politics interact isn’t it.
15 The BBC’s Russell Brand & Jonathen Ross’s criminally abusive calls to Andrew Sachs, demonstrate the unaccountability of the Labour’s pet monkeys at BBC.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1080621/Russell-Brand-Jonathan-Ross-face-prosecution-obscene-air-phone-calls-Fawlty-Towers-actor-78.html
Like Walter Wolfgang, Andrew Sachs is a refugee from the Nazis. What is it the Labour BBC Mafia has against refugees from the Nazis.
The unaccountability is the main reason the BBC must be broken up. Forget the fact that waste on these untalented creeps runs into millions of pounds of public money. The BBC will be held to account. If they dont do it themselves, the electorate will ensure it is done.
175 - no it’s not.
A Scottish vote on independence simply only makes sense if it is a vote by Scots.
185. In that case, should a Westminster election only be voted in by people born here?
Guido has a ‘Sunday Sleaze’ round up, as one would expect Mandelson and Rothschild feature prominently, can’t help thinking the shenanigans by both have back fired somewhat….
http://www.order-order.com/2008/10/sunday-sleaze-round-up.html
178 “I know that partying, white, bullying, macho, bullshit, corrupt, degenerate, culture operates in the City.”
Oi, wotchit Tyson. I used to work in the City and I didn’t go to many parties.
[I of course use the term 'work' loosely.]
186. alex: A Scottish vote on independence simply only makes sense if it is a vote by Scots.
Why?
186. Simply repeating your view without any further evidence or argument does not constitute an argument.
164 “he only sensible option for a purely Scottish vote is to make the criteria birthright.”
That is a fairly racist statement.
What would you expect from a party named the Scottish National Party.
Still, I have always found Scottish Nationalist to be racists and full of hate.
140. If you’re from West Gorton and Ardwick your obsession should be the same as mine. To make sure that another Thatcher clone of whatever background doesn’t get anywhere near No 10.
187 - Well it is only voted in UK subjects. Not all residents have a vote.
The problem with Scotland is that there is no such thing as Scottish subjects. As such any solution will produce anomolies. But a Scottish Independence referendum would be for a permanent change in the Nationality of every Scot. So the only logical solution is for it to be restricted to Scots.
184 - Disgraceful. If Ross and Brand made those calls during a show, the BBC should fire them.
If an employee of mine harassed a 78 year old man on company’s time and premises, they would be instantly dismissed, and the police informed. No ifs, no buts.
More on Scotland Westminster voting intention…
YouGov has now polled Scotland 11 times since November 2006 and four times since July 2008.
Other than a TNS System 3 poll for the Herald at the end of April, no pollster other than YouGov has polled Scotland since June 2006, as far as I am aware.
Changes since the last poll:
Con 20 (+3)
Lab 38 (+6)
LD 11 (-2)
SNP 29 (-5)
With so few polls, though, it’s difficult to tell how likely this poll is to be an outlier.
OT: Morris Dancer’s Brazilian Grand Prix wafflings.
Just checked some more weather reports and right now the forecast is for rain throughout the first half at least of Saturday (qualifying day) with a 60% chance of rain according to another site.
If this keeps up hopefully Vettel will put in another stunning performance.
192 - A bizarre post. What has the SNP got to do with it?
Mandy and dear Gordon may have (whatever it is they do) and made up, but Brown’s closest ally Nick Brown, now Labour’s chief whip, remarked during the foot and mouth crisis: “Burning all cloven-hooved beasts would be a good excuse to throw Mandelson on the fire.”
186. How do you define ‘Scots’? My brother was (by accident of history) born in Scotland, but our parents are English and we have always lived south of the border. Meanwhile my great uncle is from Scotland but has lived in England since the early 1980s. I also have a cousin, English by birth and parentage but who has worked in Scotland for many years and is married to a Scot.
Which of these people, if any, would you deem ‘Scots’ and would be allowed to vote in a referendum?
194. alex: The problem with Scotland is that there is no such thing as Scottish subjects. As such any solution will produce anomolies.
But surely the most logical solution is to enfranchise those who would be eligible to vote were it an independent country. Surely legal residents of Scotland at independence would be entitled to take Scottish citizenship (perhaps with a minimum time period of residence)?
201 - Who knows? What are the SNP proposals on this?
171. JohnO. Excellent!!
200 - All of them.
194. But the question is what makes a Scot a Scot. British subjects can vote in British elections. You’re proposing that the place you were born should determine it.
199-Mirthios- excellent quote.
John O- Trotsky’s lookalike to cheer you up.
http://images.champdogs.co.uk/images/k797d2.jpg
BTW- all cats are Tory. Conservative with a mega C, hate change, selfish, love hunting, constantly fight with each other. Enough said.
My argument is that only Scots or those with a clear commitment to Scotland should influence a referendum. The problem is how you identify the latter.
Bear in mind that this debate is in the context of Scots living outside Scotland are to be barred from any referendum vote.
195. I agree. It’s shameful that these people think they can do such things without consequence. The fact that they are paid by our taxes to do so is disgusting.
Will Mandacious be campaigning in Glenrothes?
For all we know, Roger might have been one of the guests in Corfu.
152 - Postings do seem to get duplicated on here from time to time for some reason. I did ask why this should be on a previous thread but there was no response.
It would make sense for all those permanently resident in Scotland to vote, and Scots-born people wherever they live to register to vote if they want to. I lived abroad for many years, but I never stopped being Scots.
The fact that the criteria is to be “those eligible to vote” is not surprising. It is the only practical solution. But that doesn’t make it at all logical.
Perhaps a compromise could be
1) Scottish nationality (by birth or (grand)parentage - Sporting rules) and registered to vote
2) Non Scottish nationality resident in Scotland for a set number of years
3) Scottish nationality living outside Scotland.
Can anyone give a justification for why English people living in Scotland should be eligible, but, say, French people wouldn’t?
213 (cor) - not “only practical solution” - see compromise. But easiest solution.
194 “But a Scottish Independence referendum would be for a permanent change in the Nationality of every Scot. So the only logical solution is for it to be restricted to Scots.”
Sounds like Hitler Logic. How will you solve this “foreigner problem”?
207. alex: only Scots or those with a clear commitment to Scotland should influence a referendum
I would suggest that living in Scotland for a period of several years is demonstrating such a commitment.
Mandy’s problem is pinpointed in this single paragraph (from the Telegraph):
“Lord Mandelson, who has twice been forced to resign from the Cabinet, was in the embarrassing position of having his integrity questioned again after he admitted yesterday that he had misled the public just days into his new role.”
Every single move he makes will be reported with that prefix:
“Lord Mandelson, who has twice been forced to resign from the Cabinet, was seen picking his nose yesterday”
Can’t escape.
216 - see 213.
204. Well I doubt the SNP would agree, and if you really applied that kind of reasoning then the electorate for the referendum would expand hugely.
There must be hundreds of thousands of Scots-born people resident elsewhere in the UK (and abroad!). English-based Scots would no doubt vote largely against independence as well…
210 - Rogers friends have bigger boats. He wouldn’t be seen dead on a 240 footer - that’s a tender not a yacht.
213. alex: Can anyone give a justification for why English people living in Scotland should be eligible, but, say, French people wouldn’t?
An Englishman living in Scotland would become a foreigner upon independence; a Frenchman would merely remain a foreigner.
220 LOL!
219 - Well they may do. Which is why i made the original point about Scottish polls. I don’t your assumption is a certainty though. If Independence was seen to have negative financial consequences then those living abroad might have less of a problem with it.
I don’t see why there should be a problem with massively increasing the electorate for a one-off thing of such importance as an independence referendum.
215 - No it’s not. This is about the right of self determination of peoples. Nothing to do with how foreigners are treated.
221. What about Commonwealth citizens? Canadians of Scots descent living in Edinburgh, for example?
221 - that is an argument which could be logically followed through to giving EVERY UK citizen a vote.
Anyway this all arose because it was asserted that those with Scottish birthright would be denied a vote? Who wants to defend that for other than partisan reasons?
226. That is indeed the question. And it demonstrates the problem of trying to disentangle a centuries-old union within which there has been significant mobility of persons and large-scale intermarriage.
The SNP has always tried to claim it is a ‘civic’ nationalist party but that sits uncomfortably with the attitudes of many of its supporters and would also clash in this case with the legitimate claim to Scottishness of many living outside Scotland.
199. Priceless
needs to be rquoted on a daily basis
207 “My argument is that only Scots or those with a clear commitment to Scotland should influence a referendum.”
Thos with a clear commitment to Britain should not influence a referendum.
How would you exclude those NO voters?
Perhaps SNP stormtroopers would force them to wear a badge on the lapel of appropriately striped clothing to identify their lack of commitment to Scotland.
Bad, bad News for McCain
His brother forced to resign from campaign after traffic jam!
Palins make up $34,000 in TWO weeks!
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/World/Story/STIStory_295079.html
Surely the only practicable way is for those registered to vote in Scottish elections to be eligible to vote in the referendum. However, this does give rise to an opportunity for ballot stuffing, as a lot of people resident in England could register by claiming to have moved to Scotland and to be living with friends or relatives.
I don’t understand the current fashion for allowing ex-pats to vote. Of course servicemen and diplomats should be able to vote, they have been sent abroad for their country. But if I went to live in France, for example, I would expect to vote in French elections, as that is where my taxes would be going. Having said that I would expect there to be some sort of de minimis rule, so a short absence didn’t count.
163 Bullingdon Club = teenagers at university getting p1ssed and farting about. Big f’ing deal!
164. The only fair way is for people registered on the electoral register in Scotland to vote. They are the ones affected, why would people born in Scotland but now resident in America or Australia or even England get a vote. It has to be by the people who are impacted.
225. alex: that is an argument which could be logically followed through to giving EVERY UK citizen a vote.
Not at all. I’m an Englishman living in England: Scottish independence would not make me a foreigner where I live.
The Scottish poll seems to have hijacked the thread - perhaps it deserves its own thread. When was the previous poll to which post 196 compares? I’d guess that the emphasis on the national financial crisis has boosted both Labour and Tories and made the independence theme seem both less realistic (given the unfortunate Iceland parallel) and less relevant to immediate issues. Brown’s lead over Salmond and Cameron at a personal level (albeit specifically vis-a-vis the crisis) is the largest I’ve seen in any poll for a long time.
I’d be cautious about interpreting it for Glenrothes (even allowing for all our expectations management games): it’s obvious that the SNP is the main challenger there, so I suspect we’ll see some tactical voting by the endangered species of Glenrothes Tories. I’ll be going up there with a carload tomorrow for a few days, will report back in due course (not that anyone will believe it unless I report that the SNP is romping home!). Everyone’s being very cautious, I note - anecdotes rather than predictions.
192. You have obviously not met many then, what an idiotic statement to make.
229 - You seem to be wasting a lot of time and bandwidth on the belief that i am associated with the SNP.
207 Sorry Alex but you are talking nonsense for once. The electorate in a referendum on Scottish Independence would be those people registered to vote in Scotland’s Holyrood and Westminster elections. This would exclude the Sir Sean Connery’s of this world who say a lot but contribute very little to 21st century Scotland. It would also mean tens of thousands of English people, many of whom vote SNP, would have the right to vote since on a daily basis they contribute to the life and economy of Scotland. Scots living in England who are not registered to vote in Scotland which includes several dozen Labour and Tory MPs should not be permitted a vote since they have chosen to make their lives in England.
As for the talk about yachts and public schools, surely the simple point is trash with cash is still trash! I have seen more “class” and breeding in a cleaner or public toilet attendant than in some so called toffs. I was lucky enough to go to a good school which was not a boarding school. We had rich boys and poor boys but frankly no-one cared, they were just all fellow pupils.
My experience of my public school cousins and friends/circle of acquaintences is that those with breeding, cash rich or otherwise will always endeavour to behave correctly and those who are starry eyed by the cash rich ask no questions type will be used and abused by them. Osborne’s mistake was to be taken in by his old schoolfriend Rothschild whose family must despair about the sort of people he is mixing with. Mandelson and indeed Blair and Brown have always mixed with some dodgy people who happen to be super rich. Hopefully Osborne will have learned his lesson and move on. Mandelson however will continue to have questions to answer.
The Bullingdon club seems to be akin to the Drones club Bertie Wooster belonged to. Rich boys behaving badly. Cearly some of them grew up and are now responsible. Others sadly are not. The only difference between Bullingdon and some of the “secret” institutions popular with those at the other end of the so called social scale is that the rich boys often go on to become leading politicians and businessmen.
Bad behaviour is bad behaviour, whether on the part of rich boys at Oxford, squaddies in Cyprus or police rugby teams in middle England or in Scotland, or indeed the tens of thousands of young adults who get plastered drunk in pubs and nightclubs the length and breadth of the country every weekend, puking up on our High streets, getting involved in petty and mindless violence and worse.
By all accounts Millfield is a very fine school these days. However, the Telegraph reported in 2004 that in the past it had a reputation for being “the school for the wayward children of mega-rich parents, the one with the rather rackety reputation for alcohol, drugs and sex”.
Clem Atlee chose Millfield for his son. I find it hard to reconcile this with roger’s account of him being persecuted by its headmaster for not being a Tory.
117 - she was bad wasn’t she.
163. “the last thing I would like to do with my time is spend the night wearing a silly costume in a silly frat boys club, drinking champagne till I puked, snorting coke, braying and jeering, shagging and abusing whores and others, meanwhile thinking I owned the world.”
Cue Manchester United Football Club
How many players went to Oxford?
230-old news.Plse try & be less dramatic.
233. What about Scots working in England who intend to return to Scotland a few years hence? Why should they be denied a vote but English people working in Scotland who intend to return to England a few years hence get one?
234 - it would make every English/Welsh/NIrishman a foreigner when they went to Scotland.
You are identifying one thing that would change for one group of individuals and prioritising it over all others.
235. Nick Palmer: The Scottish poll seems to have hijacked the thread - perhaps it deserves its own thread. When was the previous poll to which post 196 compares?
Fieldwork ended 5th September.
230. Well no it isnt John.
What is bad news is that the economy is in a hole and the last GOP presdiency is heavily discredited.
Dont you worry about really matters though.
244. alex: it would make every English/Welsh/NIrishman a foreigner when they went to Scotland.
Yes, but not where they live.
You could make a case for allowing every UK citizen to have a vote. I think the pro-independence camp would be in favour of it, actually.
It has already been stated very clearly by the SNP as to who will be able to vote in any referendum on independence. It will be all those on the Electoral Register of Scotland at the time of the referendum as you would expect.
193 Roger, on the contrary my “obsession” is to see the back of Gordon Brown and co before they do more damage to this country and it’s economy. (and that’s from an ex-SWP and ex-Labour Party member.)
If a couple of Old Etonians and their mates are volunteering to come in and try to clear up the appalling mess left by Brown then that’s fine by me. Good luck to ‘em ’cause they’re gonna need it.
11.I have to say that my two favourite comedies are Frasier and Only Fools and Horses.
13.”As a neutral in the Queen K affair, it still seems to me that the Tories have lost more”
A neutral Cicero? You would most definitely be hoping that this has been more damaging for the Tories, but alas I suspect you will be disappointed.
233/238 - But these people get votes in UK elections. (in fact the irony in this case is that Scots living outside the UK would quite possibly still be eligible to vote in Scotland - it is those in the rest of the UK who would be excluded.) It is not at all unusual internationally for ex-patriots to get votes in “home elections”. Arguably there is a FAR stronger case for a vote in an independence referendum than run of the mill elections.
I find it astonishing that someone can think that a Scot living outside Scotland would be unaffected by an Independence vote.
206 Tyson, that’s not a dog. It’s a soft toy for kiddies.
Now, here’s a dog:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/Border_Terrier_Kamu.jpg
248 - Do you not anticipate a large number of Scots abroad temporarily registering in Scotland for the duration of the vote?
251. I don’t doubt the SNP has crunched the numbers and realises what a huge risk to their cause the votes of English-based Scots could be. Hence their intention to disfranchise them.
254 - technically they’re not being disenfranchised. Just not franchised
*enfranchised
255. Note I used the correct expression - disfranchised.
If the SNP realy wanted to win they would “enfranchise” everybody living in England.
154. Can some maths whizz crunch the early voting data from FL. It was updated late last night. To me it looks devastating to McCain – the early absentee ballot advantage the GOP has already been eroded by DEM heavy in-person voting. I’d have a go myself at trying to work out the probable margins (based on crossovers, independent breaks etc.) but I don’t trust myself.
Is this one for you Tyson?
259. Note: 1.7 million votes already cast in FL.
257 - lol oops!
I read the SNP draft document and note that they “envisage an independent Scotland based on territorial claims rather than birthright”.
But this does rather beg the question - why should Scotland be a special case? If they are not arguing for independence based upon self-determination of peoples then why should they be given the time of day? It’s no different to London declaring itself independent, or Cornwall, or Essex, or Kingston and Richmond borough councils combined…
18. Nasty poll for Obama – but my feeling is that as soon as he gets a bad poll all that then happens is he pulls away again as it remotivates some DEMs who could have been prone to complacency. With Barack now back on the trail and Clinton joining him Wednesday it could be that McCain’s days of winning the news cycle (by default?) are over. Feeling a tad more bullish on Obama today for some reason. That VA poll looks hopeless for McCain. Interesting to see Ras and Gallup later.
251. Alex it will have some impact in that after the fact they can decide to have a Scottish passport , however the impact is on gthe people who live in Scotland , pay the taxes etc, you cannot open voting to anybody that is interested , it has to be down to people who are currently eligible to vote in Scotland via the electoral register. Anybody interested can do what is required to get on the register by meeting the necessary criteria.
254. Your post is rubbish, any person on the register English or not is eligible. SNP are very happy to have English people living in Scotland and in fact many of them support the SNP.
RE: Millfield
Sean Connery discussing his son.
‘As for being mean to him when he was a lad, I sent him to Millfield, which is Britain’s most expensive public school, and I sent him after that to Gordonstoun when it became clear to me that Millfield was rubbish.’
17.
“Osborne is “more wounded” only because he starts from a clean slate, ”
Something the NoW editor a couple of years ago didn’t think. Then he lost his job, didn’t he. Then they made him….Head of Communications for the Conservative Party! No doubt his view of Osborne underwent a miraculous conversion.
264 - runnymede said english based scots not scots based english!
Just a small point but…
Regarding the ‘George and the Hooker’ News of the World article at 107 above, does this kind of story do any harm to Osborne and Co?
Given that there are still occasionally stories based on whether politicians tried cannabis in their pre-politics past, and the electorate are expected to care, surely the same retrospective prurience should be assumed to apply to prostitution?
Rob
128. Voxpop. Which will fall furthest? We are in the world of guesses here. But, I see some support for Sterling vs US Dollar around 1.40, but I see the Euro continuing to fall further against the Dollar, so Euro weakest I think. Madasafish want to tell us what your chart skills tell you? (I downloaded data on the ECU back to the 60s).
267 Alex thanks for pointing that out.
Runnymede , humble apologies I will put my glasses on and
engage brain , I am suitably chastened.
44.
“Baxter’s Scottish calculator”
You can buy your own vibrating machines on the internet these days you know.
The Tories disparity between ‘question one’ vote share and proposed constituency voting tells it all. The Scots have been largely voting tactically (who will get/keep the ****ers oot?) in about half of their constituencies for a considerable time - more so in UK General Elections than in most other contests.
262- billybob- that poll looks a bit shaky.
259- Florida- still only 20% of the 2004 early voters have come out yet, but you are right you would expect GOP to front load this, and the Democrats have more registereds coming in. Good Afro/ American % too. Maybe JackW or ukPaul can read more into these. Would be interested though to see your calculations.
Anyhow Obama is coming into this last week with a fair wind- the GOP campaign is imploding, McCain is continuing to flog the negative character assassination, mutual recriminations with Palin who seems to be out of control, bad news continues to keep the news agenda- i.e McCain’s brother’s antics, Palin’s makeup budget;
and Obama continues to be flawless- he has the money, the campaign, the organisation.
Cannot for the life think how McCain can make any kind of fightback under these circumstances.
268 - If you manage to read beyond the suggestive nature of the title, the article is surprisingly favourable towards Osborne.
Scots who live and work in England should have no say in an Independence Referendum. If they want to then they need to register as voters in a Scottish constituency and in my experience most returning officers would reject their applications because under Blair, the basis for registration was changed to where the person’s main residence is located. With the automatic right to a postal vote, even students are less likely to register or be permitted to register in 2 places within Scotland.
There is no way Scots living in England would help the SNP. In my experience within my family, the Scots living and working in England are rabid anti-SCots never mind anti-independence. How my late uncle described the Scots is unprintable and he was a Glasgow born senior manager of a Clydeside engineering company until he was 50 before moving to head office of the parent company near Birmningham. His 2 sons, my cousins live in Brussels and just outside Portsmouth and I dont think either of them would vote for independence and I doubt either have any intention of ever returning to live in Scotland again.
On the other hand, my home village, 4 miles down the road is full of middle aged English settlers who have come here in the past decade. They are active in the community, work in local charities, support the village shop/post office and hotel and have invested a great deal of both their time and money into 21st century Scotland. To my mind they have a right to a greater say in the future of Scotland than my cousins.
The electoral laws are fairly straightforward and should not be made more complex. Otherwise we start getting bogged down in deciding whether people like Ian McCartney the Glasgow born Labour MP or Lord Lamont, the Shetland born former Chancellor or indeed Tony Blair the Edinburgh born former PM should be given a vote although they show little interest in 21st century Scotland but English born David Cameron who is the son of Scots, is descended from a great many major figures in Scottish history, has Scottish family landholdings and spends a great deal of his time in Scotland on non political business should not be.
In any event we will have lots of time in 2010 to debate this issue as will around 3 million people living in Scotland who are on the voters roll.
269 Thanks Ken, I’m a bit long on the euro so I hope you’re wrong. I suspect sterling is more vulnerable to the markets in these turbulent days but only time will tell.
Caveat emptor, eh?
29.No surprise with those figures Mike, especially as you noticed the trend towards an increase in support for Labour in their heartlands.
30.”That Tory figure in Scotland looks high. Where are they getting all the extra support from. The Lib Dems?”
Not really Punter, if you look back at the polls(subsamples) for Scottish voting over the last year, that figure is about right. And yes, I do think that they are taking votes from the Libdems.
Boing!!
274. Easteross, excellent post , totally agree.
Latest Research 2000/DKos tracker :
McCain 40% .. Obama 51% .. O -1
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/26
268. That women has no credibility at all! All this came up before and it is obviously just an excuse to make money out of having rubbed shoulders with Osborne.
She even says that Osborne did not bonk her! Indeed, it does Nat more harm IMO! It does not “harm” Osborne at all IMO other than to say his dress sense for a party!
Quite simple, if you live in Scotland and are registered to vote there in the Holyrood and Westminster elections, you get to vote in a referendum.
An interesting point in this ‘Scottishness’ question is the thousands of people who may think themselves to be Scottish and who may (or may not) presently live in Scotland, but were born in England, possibly even to ‘Scottish’ parents born in England (there’s plenty of movement between the countries after all). They’ve never felt any less ‘Scottish’ before as a result of this, and they’ve never had to register any different nationality.
Who would decide their franchise eligibility and when?
Dear me, that Ross and Brand affair is completely disgraceful. However, such crassness is essentially what their ‘humour’ is all about so doubtless they BBC will state it was intended to be ‘lighthearted’ and there will be trebles all round.
Just another reason why I loathe the corporation so.
272. Tyson sorry mate have to correct you. More than 22 per cent of the 2004 *total* vote has already cast its vote in 2008. 1.7 million voters already gone to the polls in a swing state. I know it’s a self selecting sample but… it’s one hell of a sample size. Will try to play with the numbers later for a bit of fun.
Politics show suggesting SNP investigating “Local” income tax on investment income.
272 tyson The early voting figures continue to show Obama performing extremely well. Even in Florida where the GOP have enjoyed a considerable organization advantage Obama is breaking even and in Colorado Obama has turned around a eight point deficit from 04 and edged into a small lead. Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada speak for themselves :
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
271.I have posted this comment from an SNP supporter who regular pops up on Conhom before, but it really does sum up tactically voting in Scotland perfectly!
“Well,at least I agree with you about the LibDems.
They have held Argyll (until the last Scottish election) on the most incredible coalition of votes.
We found Labour supporters voting LibDem to keep the Tories out and Tories voting LibDem to keep Labour out and Tories and Labour supporters voting LibDem to keep the SNP out and none of them actually voting LibDem to put the LibDems in.
I did a stint of phone canvassing an election or two ago and had phoned over 500 numbers before I got a voter who professed to be LibDem supporter and THEY WON THE SEAT.
Now that the SNP has snatched the seat back I suspect it will revert to being again an SNP/Tory marginal (if the Tories get their act together, that is).
Posted by: David McEwan Hill | January 23, 2008 at 21:21″
284- you are right billy- 22% is a great sample. Look forward to see your crunch work
Benbobjim - Do. Not. Trust. Drudge.Somehow he has been leaked a daily result from Zogby, very small sample size and a very large margin of error. It’s the best that he can come up with and even then McCain is clearly behind. That Drudge couldn’t find something better is indicative of how poor the polling is for his candidate, he is getting desperate now (witness his implosion over the fake attack on a McCain campaigner).
I’ve been saying that the gap would tighten but it looks hasn’t happened, it might still do but, within a week, the odds of McCain being able to do that when he hasn’t been able to do so far are minuscule.
Put simply, if McCain does not gain a number of polling leads over the next week nationally then there is no possibility of him winning. Given the amount of polling you would expect some outliers to each side if the race could go either way and there haven’t been any for weeks.
286. “Obama is breaking even”. Dem ID has a 3.5 pt advantage as of last night when the numbers were updated.
290 Benbobjim. Even better.
I am sorry to keep going on about the BBC, but i have just watched the the first four minutes of the Andrew Marr show, as he does the newspaper round up of front pages.
Predictably he picks up the *only* front page which is embarrasing to the Tories, the Granuiad and says “front pages, virtually all the serious papers have Mandelson, Osbourne and the one million pound loan”.
This is not true, virtually all the serious papers have Mandelson and the one million pound loan as their headline, only the Granuiad drages Osbourne into it, which just happens to be the one he shows.
Totally outrageous.
281 - The argument i was putting is that current electoral registration rules are inappropriate for something like a Scottish independence referendum.
The decisions taken at elections only relate to a maximum 5yr period in the future.
A referendum decision (if approved) is Forever.
As such there is a strong case for enfranchising Scots who are quite possibly temporarily removed from the Scottish electoral role.
Should prisoners have a vote…?
126.
“Hazel Blears … I hear her talk about real people and issues and refuse the open goal offered … give George Osborne a kicking.”
ever heard of a phrase involving ‘glass houses’ and ’stoned’?
BREAKING NEWS
Huge Boost for McCain as he gets a New Endorsement from Overseas Supporters
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/opinion/26kristof.html?em
292 stick with it Gaz, Amanda Platell goes for the Mandy jugular and gets under slippery Campbell’s skin to boot.
Ken and madasa.. would value your views on this article
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3260052/Europe-on-the-brink-of-currency-crisis-meltdown.html
“Romania raised its overnight lending to 900pc to stem capital flight, recalling the near-crazed gestures by Scandinavia’s central banks in the final days of the 1992 ERM crisis – political moves that turned the Nordic banking crisis into a disaster.”
293.If you want a say in Scottish affairs, move there and get on the electoral roll, its that simple.
Any idea if you can buy Fox or CNN for election night? I’ve got satellite freeview but nothing else…
Any idea if you can buy Fox or CNN for election night? I’ve got satellite freeview but nothing else…
R2000 Tracker
Obama 51 (-1)
McCain 40 (n/c)
Last six days Mon +9, Tue +10, Wed +10, Thu +14, Fri +11, Sat +9. The outlier drops off tomorrow, the unwary might think it shows a tightening and is a good example of how numbers may be misinterpreted.
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/26
While we all know that the Mail is a despicable organ attempting to warp the minds of the muddled classes, occasionally you have to hand it to them. Their juxtaposed portraits of Osborne and Mandelson seem to have somehow dropped the caption: “which twerp is the Tory” (A: both of them)
Reading from Stephen Phelps about the make-up of Mandy’s chosen Lordship of Foy (5.) made me chuckle. So when he has Britain’s leading merchant bankers down to his country seat to toss the economy about it will genuinely be the ‘Hole in the wall’ gang in at least three meanings.
297. You can see my views further up the thread 100 or so.
292.
“Predictably he picks up the *only* front page which is embarrasing to the Tories, ”
Predictably you didn’t mention the Platell woman (makes Palin look half human!) quoting all the ati-Labour headlines seconds later. Is this obsession which some posters on here have with Ms Ashley’s worse half entirely healthy?
303 - ah, got it, thanks.
299. Isn’t CNN free online on election night? I also think Sky News has some sort of tie-up with CNN so it can use their numbers. By the way, be prepared for Sky to completely out-call the BBC.I still remember the mayoral race, when it was clear to everybody that Boris had won and the BBC refused to call it until hours later. For this reason I will not be watching the BBC on election night.
293. Alex it would be impossible , where would you stop, one Scottish grandparent , or great grand parent. You could go on forever and it would be a mess.
As it stands if you meet requirements to get on Electoral roll you will get a vote , so if anybody is really keen they can do that.
304.
Ah yes, that will be the ‘we employ jeremy clarkson so we cant be biased’ defence…………
Is now the right time to point out (especially to Mr Salmond) that about 1/5th of Scotland (including Edinburgh) is really part of the historic Saxon Kingdom of Northumbria? As, of course, is the relevent piece of hydrocarbon-rich continental shelf.
308.
“‘we employ jeremy clarkson so we cant be biased’ ”
I’m sure you do though I won’t embarrass you by enquiring what you employ him for.
Poor old Baron Fey of Glory Hole seems to have other problems -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-454446/Peter-Mandelsons-new-friend-Italian-designer-20-years-junior.html
311. That’s a cheap crack!
311.
problems…what problems?
“A source close to Peter Mandelson last night denied that he and Reinaldo were no longer an item.
….Mr Mandelson and Mr Coretti had met a couple of times but did not have a relationship, we were told”
Actually the phrase was: “It’s a bum rap!”
What would Mandy want with someone who’d spend years servicing smarmy Silvio?
311 Er, that’s an old story from May 2007. What’s the point?
307 - You would stop at one Scottish grandparent. Sports rules. Not that complicated.
I don’t doubt that simply using existing electoral rules is administratively simpler. I just think the rules should be different for something like an Independence referendum.
It should be about self determination, and that means nationality based rather than territorial rules.
I also think there should probably be a higher threshold to pass - be it greater than 50% or a certain proportion of the eligible electorate or whatever.
The story has now moved on a little.
http://heady.co.uk/rm/george_osborne_yacht_nadir.jpg
http://heady.co.uk/rm/david_cameron_rupert_murdoch.jpg
Should they not be lagging lofts in these hard economic times?
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/67916/Brown-s-50m-ghost-workers
317 - Darn it, Kate Winslet will never have the same appeal again….curse you…!
317. Not been funny wage slave but i would not have put the first one up. It could be seen as you inciting others to look at an image of peadophilliac properties. Whilst i realise you have not adjusted a picture of a naked child and put it on the internet with George Osbornes head on it. The new anti- pediaphile laws that Labour mooted bringing in were retrospective in nature as well.
320. an image of peadophilliac properties
should say
an image with peadophilliac properties
320. Not a Nirvana fan, Martin?
This is going to be red meat for some
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-411977/Yes-biased-religion-politics-admit-BBC-executives.html
“BBC executives have been forced to admit what critics have known for years - that the corporation is institutionally biased.”
To be fair if accurate this is pretty much how Sean T called it.
322. No it’s depressing music - no wonder the lead singing killed himself!
Just making the point given the muted legislation!
324 singing = singer
315.”I just think the rules should be different for something like an Independence referendum.
It should be about self determination, and that means nationality based rather than territorial rules.”
Totally disagree. You want to vote in a referendum on Scottish Independence, you live in Scotland, end of!
Don’t care where you are from originally, or where your granny was born, you live and can therefore be registered to vote there.
http://www.adn.com/opinion/story/567867.html
This made my dad apart from the 8 point lead in Ram - the Anchorage Daily News has endorsed President-Elect Obama - way to go Anchorage .
Jack W,
Can you please — pleaaaazzze — put both the SEIZE and the proportion of DEM/GOP of the polls you post?
Thanks in advance,
Your Bid Daddy
297
I have no real undestanding of global exchange rates/lending etc.
All I know is that bankers all make the same mistakes at the same time and jump over the same cliffs together all at once… just like lemmings.
So it entirely likely: They do it every 15 years: in my view every banks should have at least one non exec banker director who worked through the last bank blowup and at least KNOWS something about hard times.
I am not holding my breath.
Ukpaul,
Yesterday’s R2K tracker showed Obama +11, not +9 :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1025.html
316. It should be 50% + 1 of those that vote , no more rigged referendums for Scotland. If you do not vote you do not count.
Jack W,
Can you please — pleaaaazzze — put both the SEIZE and the proportion of DEM/GOP of the polls you post?
Thanks in advance,
Big Daddy
75. Some facts seriously wrong there, Easterross.
The Tories have the most evenly spread distribution of the four parties in Scotland (Standard deviation about 8%), and also the most uniform change of the four parties (Standard deviation about 3%.)
This is bad, bad news for the Tories, equivalent to the Liberals’ handicap in England during the 1950s to 1980s. With a tightening of the UK Con-Lab margin, Tory gains in Scotland are looking increasingly unlikely…
323 - It’s hardly surprising that it’s how SeanT called it, considering the report was his source!!!
330 - The +9 is the daily result, not the three day total.
334 - really? lol - not all his own work then
335 — I see…
336 - i assume you’ve checked the date.
338 I thought I had but I now see I misread it.
333. Tories won’t make gains in Scotland (or at least not significant ones) until Scotland seperates from the Union and they’ve had 20-30 years of non stop socialist Labour/SNP rule.
Murray wins 6-1, 6-1 in St Petersburg. Fifth title this year, third in a row.
342. Quiet on here today
317 - Rawnsley in the Observer has this to say:
“[Cameron] knows all his rebranding of the Tories can be undone if the voters come to regard him and his top team as a smugly posh gang of waistcoat-wearing public-school boys who haven’t a clue or a care about the lives of the less affluent. The copyright on the picture of the Tory leader posing in Bullingdon Club tails was purchased by a mystery buyer to prevent its further publication. Not so the picture of George Osborne in the same Brideshead Regurgitated gear. The Tories have winced as the media have gleefully republished that ghastly portrait.
When so many people are fearing for their modest livelihoods, unglamorous homes and shrinking pensions, this is precisely the worst moment for the Tories to be embroiled in a squalid squabble between rich kids about huge yachts, banking dynasties and Russian billions.”
Unfortunate wording from Vince Cable on Boulton “”I think people would like to have control more over their own money and that’s why we support tax cuts for the lower class,” he said.
The lower class? That’s a little condescending Vincent.
Agree with him that “people would like to have more control of their money” though why limit it?
343 - of course, its easy enough to see it if you want to.
331 There is some historical support for Alex’s position.
The plebiscites that were held by the League of Nations after the Treaty of Versailles to determine the fate of Silesia were open to those who lived in, or were born in, the disputed towns and provinces.
The new opinion poll in Scotland is a rogue outlier. The real figure is that the SNP is 30% ahead of Labour nationally. The SNP will win Glenrothes by a margin of 34,162. Mandy will be forced to resign before W becomes a lame duck, and John McCain will defect to the Arizona and Alberta Union Independence Party.
PB to participate again in the Tote Ten to Follow competition
Peter the Punter, Peter Smith, is once again organising an site entry in the “Tote Ten to Follow competition”. This was great fun last season although we did not make any money and I’ll certainly be taking part again.
Full details are available on the new PB Channel 2.
In case people haven’t noticed, Keith Mothersson has made a few responses at the end of his USA ballot-rigging / conspiracy thread.
346. I doubt Scotland will base its referendum on Silesia, its already been decided in any case and it will be a properly democratic vote.
This is just for fun, and not to be taken as a basis for betting, but I’ve had a go at crunching the FL early voting data to see where the race is, in terms of actual votes, in the Sunshine State.
As of Saturday night, when the FL voting was updated we could see the pattern of voting by party ID was:
DEM 44
GOP 41
IND 15 (numbers rounded)
Let’s assume that GOP and DEM are trading crossover voters evenly (i.e. DEMs for McCain, GOPs for Obama) – although I believe a majority of polls has it that in fact DEM have a slight advantage in crossover votes.
Now let’s add in independents – the key to the election in FL. The last poll to carry numbers was the St Petersburg poll which had INDs breaking almost 2-1 for Obama in FL. I’m bearish about this, so have softened the numbers for INDs to Obama 8 McCain 5 Other/Spoiled Ballot 2.
Based on all of those assumptions, the votes cast in FL should be as follows:
Obama 52
McCain 46
Others 2
Barr and Nader are both on the ballot in FL as far as I can tell.
Anyway, just a bit of fun but there is my back of a fag packet calculation.
329. Madasafish. Not true. It’s not the same banks. It takes banks two cycles or 30 years to go bananas and lose loads of money. Big US banks were not involved in anything really moronic since the LatAm crisis of the early 80s. Every 15 years banks blow up, but usually the culprits are slightly different. So what’s happened is that the most junior director from clearing up the last mess has just retired as they discover a new way to jump off a cliff.
As far as banks are concerned I’ve always thought that the problem is that banking is a dull boring business, borrow short at low interest rate, lend long at high interest rate. Manage risks - dont lend too much in one place, to bad people etc. But all that lovely money attracts “smart” people. Said “smart” people find new ways to “manage” risk. Usually meaning taking more of it in some fashion. It blows up. We start again. The latest iteration of credit risk management gave full rein to the “smart” people to manage risk. God save us from these idiots.
Rasmussen tracker: Obama 52; McCain 44. No change,
“McCain is now viewed favorably by just 50% of voters and unfavorably by 49%. Those are his lowest ratings since the campaign became a two-man race in early June. The figures include just 25% with a Very Favorable opinion of the Republican nominee while 28% hold a Very Unfavorable view.
Obama is viewed favorably by 57%, including 42% with a Very Favorable opinion of the frontrunner (see trends).”
344. Ted. The reason why Cable said that is that the poor have a higher propensity to spend and are less likely to save any tax cut. The lack of effect of tax cuts because people see them as revenue neutral means that you get less bang for your buck than direct government spending. But target it at the poor and you do far better in spending terms.
235
“Everyone’s being very cautious, I note - anecdotes rather than predictions.” Nick Palmer MP
“No more boom and bust” - Gordon Brown
352 - I get the impression that one of THE big problems is the failure of banks to recognise their interconnectedness. There’s been too much “I’m alright Jack” which has unravelled as the scale of the crisis has become apparent. In recent years banks haven’t just been competing with each other for customers, but have been competing with each other for survival. Effectively gambling against each other, one winner, one loser. No risk is too great to take on if it can be parcelled up and moved on to another ’sucker’ bank.
The problem is they’ve discovered that they’re all involved in a game which is not zero sum - both parties in the bet can ultimately lose.
HSBC were looking good for a bit, but now it appears the market has begun to sniff out their weakness.
And what’s left of poor old Bradford and Bingley is beginning to look like one of the safer parts of Santander’s business!
“Doesn’t ‘Yachtgate’ give you that sinking feeling?”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/10/26/do2601.xml
332 Bid Daddy. Qui ??
350 - no doubt. The question I am asking is that remove “Scottishness” from the referendum question and what is it REALLY about? What’s so special about the territory of Scotland that means that they should go alone? Why not the West Midlands? The city of Newcastle? The Isle of Wight?
Once upon a time territory made a great deal of sense, when due to threat of invasion etc country borders played a decisive factor in their viability. But not today.
359. Alex are you just playing stupid. Scotland is a country, how can you remove “Scottishness”?
356. Interconnectedness of the banks is well known and recognised. In the modern world the best example of this is the counterparty risk in forex markets called Herstatt risk, a German bank that failed in 1974.
The recent problems are the same ones that were seen in the failure of LTCM. The use of risk models to control risks so the net exposure is low, but the gross exposure is high. The regulatory system didnt allow for increasing systemic risk, nor did it allow for tail events (low probability, high loss events) being more common than we model, and for the breakdown of historic correlations during tail events. All foreseeable and foreseen, but sadly not by the morons in charge.
New Rasmussen poll for Wisconsin :
McCain 44% .. Obama 51%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2008_wisconsin_presidential_election
361 - Just reading about LTCM raises another point perhaps hugely pertinent to the current crisis - there can only be so many good investments at one time. When the good investments seem to run out, those investing need to find new outlets for their capital. Hence subprime and heavy investment in emerging markets.
357.
Iloved this bit:
“When I imagine that bipartisan, cosy gathering in Corfu, I am reminded of nothing so much as the last lines of Animal Farm: “The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
Contrary to some of the interpretation here, this YouGov poll is astonishingly good for the SNP given the challenging few weeks they’ve had - it shows they would still win a Holyrood election handily. They’re 8% ahead in the constituency vote, compared to a 0.8% lead in the election last year (when of course they polled ahead of Labour in Glenrothes). It’s also worth remembering that at the time of the Holyrood election, Labour still had the lead in polls for Westminster voting intention, so in that sense normal service has been resumed. The significance for Glenrothes thus depends on whether the electorate consider the by-election to be more of a ‘British’ or ‘Scottish’-type election. I would suggest given the media are presenting it as a straight Labour-SNP fight it’s more likely to be the latter, but we’ll see.
The figures for independence are also actually very good - YouGov has consistently been the pollster that has produced the lowest figures for a ‘Yes’ vote, and these figures are (from memory) pretty much in line with what they’ve produced before. Given the spin of the last few weeks, that’s very encouraging.
Chelsea 0 Liverpool 1.
How about that then.
354 Ken
I quite agree with tax cuts for the lower paid for just the reasons you mention but I was poking a little fun at Vince Cable’s use of term “lower class” (not all the upper class are rolling in it, not all the lower class are poorly paid) - not a term that you expect to hear from any politician in the 21st century.
Hotline/FD Tracker:
O 50, M 42 (yesterday was 50-43).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_102608.htm
New Mason-Dixon/NBC polls for :
Iowa
McCain 40% .. Obama 51%
Georgia
McCain 49% .. Obama 43%
Missouri
McCain 46% .. Obama 45%
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/masondixonnbc_ga_ia_mo_102223.php
366. The tectonic plates are shifting. Liverpool dominated, and without Torres.
What do our finance experts think about Gordon Brown’s astonishing claim that if only other countries had listened to him earlier then we wouldn’t have this recession?
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews/PM-hits-out-at-other.4630772.jp
“We could have dealt with some of these problems if we’d known what was happening to the sub-prime market in the States, but we didn’t have the global early warning system.”
Asked whether he had any regrets over his tenure as Chancellor, Mr Brown said: “What I’m angry about at the moment is that the proposals we’ve been putting forward for years, which might have helped deal with the problem, have not yet been implemented.
“But I’m pretty sure that as a result of what people are seeing now, the British proposals will be taken on board.”
I’m reconsidering my previous disbelief that Gordon Brown has psychological problems - this interview seems to perfectly illustrate the narcissistic personality disorder discussed on R4 this week in context of leadership.
randiose sense of self-importance.
exaggerates achievements and talents
preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty or ideal love
believes that he is ’special’ and ‘unique’ and can only be understood by, or should associate with other special or high-status people
requires excessive admiration
sense of entitlement
interpersonally exploitative.. uses others to his advantage
lacks empathy
envious of others
arrogant behavior and attitude.
370-Poor old Chelsea-Could’nt happen to a nicer “team”. Ha! Ha!
To give an illustration of what I was talking about, here are the YouGov figures for mid-January 2007 (the closest poll to the Holyrood elections that included a Westminster question) -
Westminster voting intention
Labour 35%
SNP 28%
Holyrood constituency vote
SNP 35%
Labour 29%
Holyrood list vote
SNP 32%
Labour 30%
Do you think the union with England is worth maintaining?
Yes 53%
No 33%
Those figures are strikingly similar to today’s, and the poll was taken in the run-up to an election in which the SNP won both nationally and in Glenrothes.
366/370
Sadly unable to make the trip to West Ham but keep an eye out for Arsenal.The game is live on Sky and I expect Robin Van Persie to cause West Ham problems if he plays from kick-off.
I see Hitchen’s story on the Bullingdon Club picture is now doing the rounds.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2008/oct/26/george-osborne-nat-rothschild
If anyone knows who the, ‘missing’ are could be a few quid init!
What a long thread, signifying not a lot.
That said, the poll from Scotland is fascinating: it gels with the UK poll which showed “Others” falling away - to the benefit of Labour.
My guess is that a number of soft SNP supporters, i.e. people with a very vague interest in independence, and a rather vague dislike of Labour, have indeed been scared by the Krunch and the oil price crash - and are returning to the arms of Labour, the only serious Unionist opposition to the SNP. At least in terms of Westminster votes.
Are Labour therefore gonna win Glenrothes? I’ve changed my mind several times on this, but I think they just might - and I was right, if I may be allowed to blow my own trombone, to say some of the heavy odds against Labour a coupla weeks back were ludicrously generous.
As for independence, it was never going to happen anyway, not in any foreseeable future.
The age stats on people who desire independence confirm my anecdotal observation of young Scots (and I had a sweet 20-something girlfriend in Edinburgh not so long ago; and I have travelled widely in Scotland of late): young Scots are self-confident and well-educated but, paradoxically, they lack that bitter sense of grievance against the English (except when it comes to sport) which fuels so much of Scottish Nationalism amongst older people, boors, and nutters.
Young Scots are proud and happy to be Scots, but they also rather like being British (though that is secondary) and see no reason to totally trash the latter to prove the former.
For that reason I think there is no future in true Scottish independence. It just isn’t gonna happen. Support for independence has been around 30% for decades, it hasn’t really shifted. The idea that a rather wet Tory government in London will suddenly turn that 30% into 50%+ is delusional.
But that doesn’t mean the SNP don’t have a bright future - they do: as a party of “civic nationalism” like the Catalan party in Spain.
I am sure the canny Salmond realises this, in his bones. But relaying this bitter truth to his more blinkered and ideological supporters is gonna be a delicate task.
Mandelson; evil little b*stard.
Won’t read about him, and will write no more.
Malcolm
371. Sub-prime is just one of the bombs. It was the one that went off first, but it is by no means the only one. The UK’s housing market is one example as are the property bubbles in the Baltics, Eastern Europe and in the Middle East. Gordon is such a liar - the IMF pointed out the problems in the UK and elsewhere several times - the Early Warning system sounded, but Gordon ignored the alarm that was sounded directly at him. He should be ashamed. As should Alan Greenspan.
“Olegarch”, n. : A vessel full of leaks which stays afloat by sinking the careers of those who board her. From the Russian: ‘Oleg’, a consort or disciple of former President Putin and ‘ark’ or ‘arch’, a large ship holding many snouts in the trough.
Historical note: When the leaks reach inundatory proportions, the vessel is kept afloat by resorting to ‘a large bung’. In biblical times the ‘bung’ was carried under a v-necked pullover, sometimes called the ‘bungy jumper’. This pullover was worn by a ‘Mistress Pain’, sometimes referred to only by the initials M.P. Until called upon to be the Pained Ministrator, or ‘P.M’, the M.P. (also known as ‘Lord of the Rings’) is entitled to utilise the ‘big bung’ for whatever purposes he chooses.
Corfu: n.: An Island where Turkeys who prefer to do things ‘in the Greek fashion’ go to to prepare for Christmas. Named after the chants of cockney rowing slaves imported to impel the Olegarch and prevent ‘going down with all hands’ from being the order of the day. It is believed that the phrase was developed in response to the prevailing stench which pervades the environs of the oligarch. Thus: “Cor! Phew!”
‘fisticuffs’ n. (a) an activity between oligarchs and their hangers-on (b) an abbreviation of ‘fisty cuffs’, part of a form of apparel worn by the PM. This is a shirt with no neck which helps him avoid having his collar felt.
‘compass’ n.: a device for determining direction in an oligarch, actually derived from a compound verb relating to the activities of the PM….. (that’s enough dicnairy. ed)
371. Just heard him spouting that on the Scottish Politics Show, went on about how it was nothing to do with him and the Global Crisis would not have happened if they had implemented what he has been lobbying for many years. Totally unbelievable the man is crazy.
The problem with Roger is that he is, and always will be, “MPS”.
On the subject of the Bullingdon, I can tell you that the club appears to have few hang-ups about its membership nowadays, given the provenance of at least one recent President whom I know. Besides, Tyson, as you well know many Oxford undergraduates of all backgrounds get involved with dining clubs of that ilk. Many of them behave far worse than the Bullingdon and it is only because of the peculiarities of the current political situation that have highlighted this one. Get some perspective, please!
Lastly, on Roger’s so-called theories about Nat Rothschild and the “gentlemen’s code”, let us be clear: I have no idea why Rothschild decided to write that letter but “The Code” is certainly not one of them. Anyone with an ounce of breeding rather than Roger’s half-baked pronouncements designed to play to a gallery rather too sophisticated to be taken in (better luck next time eh Rog?) would know that any such “Code” would definitively exclude such public displays as using the press. One does not break “The Code” in order to punish someone else for breaking that same code. Far too infra dig. Back to the drawing board I’m afraid.
375 coldstne - curiously the faults Mr Hitchens and the Guardian highlight do not exist in the version of the photograph published by the Daily Mail in April 2007 and others around the same time.
Could it be that someone in the Daily Mail photo dept has been playing around with photoshop since the original - to “improve” it perhaps? - and Mr Hitchens, is barking..
…up the wrong tree
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/04_01/bullindonDM_800×484.jpg
“many Oxford undergraduates of all backgrounds get involved with dining clubs of that ilk.”
Somehow my wife missed out on this. Or so she tells me. Next thing you will be telling me is that they excluded women?!
381. Can a Jew be a “gentleman”? I say that to illuminate the deeply concealed anti-Semitism of the English upper class, rather than to make an observation about Jews.
There’s a famous story of a very rich Jew, I think it may have been Murdoch, or even Maxwell, paying a visit to White’s, the ultra-exclusive upperclass St James Club of which Cammo is a member.
When the rich Jew had been finally ushered from the salon - one of the first Jews ever to grace the hallowed portals of Whites - one Whites member turned to another and said: “Damn place is turning into a synagogue”.
This is probably apocryphal. But it is also illustrative.
359 - 360. Anything can be a ‘nation’. Histories are largely invented. Read ‘The Napoleon of Notting Hill’.
371, 380. I well remember this:
“Irate Brown rejects IMF’s warning over deficit”
* Larry Elliott in Washington
* The Guardian,
* Monday April 18 2005
“Gordon Brown launched a furious assault on the International Monetary Fund at the weekend after the Washington-based organisation threatened to dent Labour’s election campaign by insisting spending cuts or tax rises were needed to cut Britain’s budget deficit.
“The chancellor chose the most public platform to denounce the fund’s forecasting record when he co-chaired a press conference on the state of the global economy with the fund’s managing director, Rodrigo de Rato.
“With Mr de Rato clearly embarrassed by the onslaught, Mr Brown said he utterly rejected the judgment, in the fund’s half-yearly World Economic Outlook, that tougher action was needed to put Britain’s finances in good order.”
There must be a dozen more warnings totally ignored by the arrogant and economically ignorant clown who went on to be our least successful Prime Minister.
“that bitter sense of grievance against the English which fuels so much of Scottish Nationalism amongst older people, boors, and nutters”
Utter rubbish, and you know it. A lie is still a lie no matter how many times it is repeated.
“Support for independence has been around 30% for decades”
Once again, my friend, wrong. Quite simply wrong. Completely, totally, embarrassingly, desperately, hysterically, creepily, cringe-makingly, stupidly WRONG. As in the opposite of right. You got it wrong, buddy.
In the 1970s/early 80s, support for independence was consistently below 20%. By the early 1990s (largely thanks to the sterling efforts of your heroine Mrs Thatcher) it had leapt to the 30-35% range - and that was in multi-option polls that also included devolution. As we established the other day, it has been quite common in recent years for single-question polls on independence to show a lead for the ‘Yes’ vote.
382.
Is that the ONE photo of the Bullindon ‘crew’ that didn’t have either Boris or Chamereon in it?
387. Red Meteor: As we established the other day, it has been quite common in recent years for single-question polls on independence to show a lead for the ‘Yes’ vote.
So the current position is below its recent trend. Interesting. Has support dropped off since Salmond’s been in power at Holyrood?
387. Yawn, snore, burp, hiccup, ZZZZZZ.
Whatever you say, you tedious Nationalist halfwit.
Just call the f*cking referendum. You’ll lose. And you know it.
382 I reckon Lord Lucan is the missing member, they’ve obviously been hiding him out all these years, look after their own these toffs y’know!!
The civil war for the soul of the Republican Party has already begun.
http://tinyurl.com/6c2xvq
386 CCHQ researchers should be searching out each IMF warning and Brown’s response, plus a few quotes from his self-laudatory Mansion House speeches- and each of Camerons PMQ questions should be based on them. Brown has moved to an alternative reality.
388. Another former Bullingdon Club member is… none other than Question Time chairman David Dimbleby! Looks like membership was good for your career, at one time.
390 If you’re right then you maybe wrong on the SNP. Some may accept it as off the table for a generation like Salmond. Others like Mason the Glasgow By-Election victor regard it as like asking for a hand in marriage and will want to keep asking until they get their right answer. There could well be a major split between pragmatists and fundamentalists in other words.
After dinner speaker started his story “Two Jews, Hymie and Nathan …” when there came an interruption “Why are all your stories anti-Semitic?”.
Speaker paused for a moment and then said - “I’m sorry, I’ll start again. There were two Chinese guys - Ho Lee and Lo Hee … (the interrupter nodded his acceptance) … who were hustling across to the synagogue for a Bar Mitzvah ceremony, when …”
389. No, as I pointed out earlier, the YouGov figures are exactly in line with what they’ve shown before - there’s been no drop-off of support for independence.
System 3 is the pollster that has most often shown a majority for independence.
390. I am not in a position to ‘hold the referendum’, not being a member of the SNP. But you’ll be delighted to hear that the Scottish Government fully intend to hold a referendum in 2010, if the opposition parties let it pass the Scottish parliament. But those parties seem weirdly reluctant to do so - could it be that they are rather less confident about the outcome that SeanT? Hmmm…interesting.
Talking of referendums, Tebbitt is to make a speech calling for a EU withdrawal referendum, surely he should switch to UKIP now!
I’d like to give you the link, but its on politicshome, and for some reason, their links just seize up and lock.
391. Yes. Brown can’t keep getting away with this spiel that the world should have listed to him and avoided recession. He may be deluded, but he musn’t be allowed to make the British people deluded as well.
390. Certainly they would lose but Sean I was under the impression that younger people in Scotland are more pro-independence?
390/ As pompous as ever , you don’t mind spouting rubbish by the barrow load but are not happy when somebody else has a different opinion. Have you anything positive to add to the debate.
390. The SNP have already stated that they will call the referendum in 2010 or 2011. The problem is that the Unionist parties have declared that they will block the referendum legislation (apart from Scottish Labour who are a bit confused about it all but will do what Westminster tells them).
You are correct. They will probably lose. But support for independence will be significantly higher than 30%. I would guess 55-45 in favour of remaining in the Union.
International thread will be up in next hour or so - thanks.
399. Most of the data previously had the most support with younger people and the most reluctant were the over 55’s. It certainly seems strange.
400. Yes. Shut up you girning Caledonian badger-sucker.
400/404 - the cut and thrust of political debate … love it.
404. You need to learn to hold your drink either that or you have been out in the sun too long.
IBD/TIPP tracker is down to 1 point again: 45-44, according to National Review Corner. Obama was up by 4 on Saturday and Friday, but only 1 on Thursday.
To boost morale, McCain needs a national poll showing him in the lead. TIPP it probably his best shot among the tracking polls. (And yes, I am aware that TIPP party ID probably overstates McCain somewhat.)
I’ve just been entertaining myself by browsing through the threads and articles from October 2004. Most people were predicting a Kerry victory, although the polls and betting were wobbling all over the place. The tide was perceived to be turning towards both candidates every few days, and it was palpable that most people thought it would be close.
Reading through what people wrote, the whole atmosphere was nervous and tense with lots of people worrying about which way it would go. It feels completely different from the current situation, in which most people (although not including me) are clearly confident of a substantial Obama victory.
——
On 5th October 2004 john wrote:
paddy have got prices for the 2008 Dem candidate
Hillary Clinton 5 - 2
Jesse Jackson Jr. 8 - 1
John Edwards 3 - 1
Ed Rendell 10 - 1
Russ Feingold 5 - 1
Tom Vilsack 10 - 1
Bill Richardson 5 - 1
Blanche Lincoln 20 - 1
Charles Schumer 6 - 1
Barack Obama 25 - 1
———
24th October 2004: With voting machines still not working properly in parts of Florida, claims of election fraud in the swing-state of Ohio, … and we have all the elements of prolonged litigation. The Kerry campaign is said to have signed up 10,000 lawyers to be on duty on November 2nd. The Republicans have registered hundreds of volunteers in Ohio to challenge voters’ credentials and, meanwhile, some are questioning whether the system itself is constitutional.
———
29th October 2004: Five Reasons Why We Think Kerry Will Win
The Democrats are more hyped up even than the religous right. They still feel cheated by the 2000 result when Gore won the popular vote and there was the Florida counting debacle and will work harder to win on Tuesday.
The turnout is going to be high which traditionally helps the Democrats. Voter registration has been at record levels; 40m more Americans watched the TV debate compared with 2000; and unprecedented numbers have asked for absentee ballots to be certain of their vote.
US polls have a tendency to over-state the Republicans. This happened in the 2000 race when the majority of final surveys went to Bush- he lost the popular vote. This time the polls are more even which should be a boost for Kerry.
Iraq continues to be bad news. The longer the difficulties have gone on the more the question marks over the President’s strategy when it’s now admitted that Saddam Hussain had nothing to do with 9/11. This reinforces the antis and depresses the Bush supporters.
Kerry has not been as bad as some feared. The debates gave Kerry the chance to appear presidential and dispel the impression of him as a wind-bag. He’s still riding on those successes.
396. Red Meteor: as I pointed out earlier, the YouGov figures are exactly in line with what they’ve shown before - there’s been no drop-off of support for independence.
You said that this poll is in line with recent polls, yes.
But since it has been quite common in recent years for single-question polls on independence to show a lead for the ‘Yes’ vote and recent polls don’t show this, there has been a drop-off between recent years and the present.
409. “You said that this poll is in line with recent polls, yes.”
Sorry, you completely misinterpreted what I said. I said it was in line with the previous polls conducted by YouGov, which has consistently produced the lowest figures for independence.
“But since…recent polls don’t show this, there has been a drop-off between recent years and the present.”
Again, simply not true. There have been polls this year showing a slim majority for independence. I think the most recent System 3 poll showed something like a 2% lead for the ‘No’ side. So, sorry, but you’re barking up the wrong tree.
Regarding this whole Nationalist problem, personally, I blame the Armenians.
In fact, this is what I’m going to say, from now on, whenever I am presented with a thorny political issue. Because it works in all cases. Think about it. When is it ever provable that the Armenians are in no way to blame, for any given situation?
Never, that’s when! So. In future, whenever I am involved in an intractable ideological argument, whenever I am embroiled in a passionate but troublesome debate, I shall quietly murmur:
“Personally, I blame the Armenians”.
And I will be right.
O/T
A political watershed. Will we all be buying BNP?
“Former Labour Council Head and Former Tory Chairman in Ashfield Defect to BNP”
“Two prominent Labour and Tory politicians from the district of Ashfield, East Midlands, have resigned from their parties in disgust and have joined the British National Party.
Former chairman of Ashfield District Council and a former Labour Councillor, Edward Holmes, says: “Serving the community was the proudest time of my political career.
“Unfortunately the Labour party I represented no longer cares for the local people. The Labour party of today is not the party that represents Britain’s working class.”
Former Chairman of Ashfield Conservative Association Lionel Buck says: “Having served in the Army I joined the Conservative Party in 1986 and was delighted to be elected Chairman of the Ashfield Association.
“However the Tories in recent years don’t have the courage of their natural convictions.
“Especially under Cameron, they tout new policies around like confetti, dumping traditional Tory values in their efforts to be like NuLabour.””
411. If I were you I wouldn’t do that if the topic of debate has anything to with ‘Turkey’ or ‘genocide’.
411.
“Personally, I blame the Armenians”.”
As ever, you are a Turkish delight.
Not that I am saying your politics are soft and sickly with a sprinkling of nuttiness. Oh No!
407 Regarding IBD/TIPP: Seems that the rumour on National Review Online was unfounded. We’ll have to see, then.
Sorry about that, they usually are reliable in such matters.
413. With regard to the Armenian genocide, personally - I blame the Armenians.
See. It works. Even in the most testing of circumstances.
410. Red Meteor: you’re barking up the wrong tree.
I’m just quoting you. You can’t say (a) it’s been quite common for there to be a “yes” majority; and (b) this poll (clear “no” majority) isn’t much worse than other recent polls; and (c) there’s been no drop-off.
It’s simply a logical fallacy.
416. Ah, OK. All a mass suicide, was it?
415. Thanks Jan – would have been a hell of a shift (although am I right in thinking that Tipp and Battleground can be rather erratic?)
Gallup Tracker:
LV Traditional - O 50, M 45 (yesterday 51-44)
LV Expanded - O 52, M 43 (yesterday 51-43)
RV - O 52, M 42 (yesterday 51-42)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111445/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Lead-McCain.aspx
419 Battleground is irratic, TIPP somewhat less so.
416. Careful Sean. ‘Denying’ the Armenian genocide may well be illegal in some of the euro-regions. No-one really knows what the law is anymore on cross-border prosecutions, least of all the idiots like Huhne who voted for it but then decided it would be a good idea to work out the consequences. A few years later.
Royal proclamation.
“On the advice of my Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with full support from the Leader of the Opposition, I have today created Baron Deripaska of Cockermouth in the countie of Cumbria. This somewhat hurried move has ensured that the Civil List will continue to be paid, albeit in ringpull can tops, throughout the coming recession of a hundred years.”
417. Not only are you not ‘just quoting’ me, you appear not to have even properly read my last post when I explained - “you completely misinterpreted what I said. I said it was in line with the previous polls conducted by YouGov, which has consistently produced the lowest figures for independence.”
If you don’t believe I was accurately relating what I had said earlier, here is the exact quote - “YouGov has consistently been the pollster that has produced the lowest figures for a ‘Yes’ vote, and these figures are (from memory) pretty much in line with what they’ve produced before.”
Therefore, I was pointing out that the figures for independence are in line with what has previously been shown BY YOUGOV. The more favourable recent System 3 polls are also in line with the support we’ve seen for independence in the past. Now do you get it? Different pollsters produce very different results, but no individual pollster has shown a recent drop-off in support for independence. There was, incidentally, a decline in support shown by System 3 last year, but that was recovered by this spring.
424. Just to clarify - to leave no room for my words to be twisted again - when I said “the more favourable recent System 3 polls are also in line with the support we’ve seen for independence in the past” I was obviously referring to previous polls conducted by the same company.
Useful piece of work showing that Obama is up in 46 states on the Kerry results:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/26/12639/233/273/642465
Obama has only gone backwards in Tennessee, Arkansas and Arizona on those 2004 results where Bush won. (He is also off some in Massachusetts and D. C. but will hold both Kerry terroritories comfortably.)
411. I blame the farmers. And the youth of today. And the old people. And the imperialist bourgeoisie.
412 That’s an interesting story, and quite a coup for the BNP.
428. 412. Great story. Also truly frightening. More than anything else it shows the intellect of those councillors and perhaps councillors in general. “We are not happy with our parties – I know let’s join the Nazis”. Dear oh dear.
The people with a problem over Bullingdons - are they the same set of people who got their knickers in a knot about fox hunting? Or is this a whole new set of outraged Townies?
420. Looks like yesterday’s polling has actually pulled Obama up. Makes you doubt whether the socialist/Joe The Plumber stuff, advertised on TV this weekend, has actually had any impact. I hope not – the whole idea that cutting middle class taxes and raising elite taxes three points back to Clinton-era levels was socialist was utter garbage.
Meanwhile, Karl Rove slams GOP strategists for attacking their colleagues. It’s a good job they say Americans have little sense of irony. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14947.html
Still won’t believe an Obama win until I see it, but perhaps it’s that sense of disbelief that is helping drive up DEM turnout. We shall see.
429.
Perhaps a little more disturbing, it shows that some Labour and Tory councillors think there is little difference between the bulk of their own parties’ policies (which sustained them till now) and those of the Nazis!
432 Or it could just be a stunt - how safe are the seats they are in?
International thread now up.
Cheers
Double Carpet
411 - even better: “personally, I blame the Cornish”