YouGov poll points to a Tory majority of just 6 seats
October 20th, 2008UPDATED
Were spread punters premature in switching to the Tories?
After reporting that the spread markets had moved sharply back to the Tories I have now picked up on the YouGov poll in the Daily Mirror which shows a narrowing of the Tory lead to 8% - although Cameron’s party share is still comfortably in the 40s.
In the panel above I reproduce a seat projection from the UK Polling Report calculator which suggests that what appeared a certainty until a few weeks ago - a Tory majority - is now very much in the melting pot.
What’s very odd about the survey is that the pollster, YouGov, also carry out work for BPIX which yesterday reported a lead twice as large. Generally the two pollsters report figures in broadly the same range. Alas we have not seen the details of either poll yet and we do not know the fieldwork dates for the Mirror survey.
[UPDATE 1230: The Mirror poll was an old poll. It's now clear that the fieldwork by YouGov took place from Wednesday to Friday - so was a day earlier than BPIX. Given that most of the responses come in within the first couple of days then it would have been affected very little by the Cameron speech on Friday. The latter would have had a much greater impact on BPIX. The Tories always poll much better when their leader is in the headlines.]
This is clearly great news for Labour and they are only two points adrift from their general election share in 2005.
So things are in a state of flux and maybe the spread markets will move back down again.
Mike Smithson
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From pre etc
35. Er, what am I meant to be apologising for? Not being a communist like Nick Palmer? Not being a liar like Gordon Brown? Not being a tra1tor like the entire Labour government on Europe? What? Do tell.
As Peter the P points out, I am always happy to bend the knee when I’ve done summat wrong. I was wrong on Iraq and have publicly poured ashes over my head several times since.
But not being a socialist tw1t doesn’t seem like much to apologise for. I know, how about this - “sorry I’m not more retarded, like lefties” - will that do
Excuse me for away being away for so much of the time. I have read, but have not commented much. I have struggled with my health - as with things to say.
Now any removal of doubt re: Obama is gone (and we are surely DO know, given McCain / Palin), the US overall is dull as ditchwater, but there are individual races going gone.
What is interesting is Labour is back in the thirties, and Conservatives not so commanding after all. I thought this would happen - the LDs would fall back (despite making much of the going).
Basically, everyone knows US polls now - bit boring; no-one has a clue on British polls - and won’t till we have more settled times.
Glenrothes remains very interesting though. Has Salmond overdone it?
It is interesting that the Tory support in the Mirror poll is even higher than the Sunday Indy one. It seems like that soft 40%+ support is now fairly hard. It seems again that Labour’s resurgence is at the expense of the Lib Dem’s. Find it hard to believe in a general election that LD’s will only get 14% of the vote, I think there are a lot of people out there who dislike Labour and Tories in equal measure, on top of the natural LD support.
Is it pure coincidence that the two smallest leads for the Cons are for the two most rabid leftwing papers i.e. Mirror, IoS ?
Poll lead leads to a result that feels much like 1992.
What on earth can Nick Clegg do to stop the squeeze? Do we really think his party will be halved?
We’ve been discounting polls (due to volatility) for a while now. We shouldn’t stop just yet, I think. In a few weeks the Tories should have extended to their lead to 10-12% (consistently), and if not should up their game.
Brown’s had the only uninterrupted conference, and near worship from most of the media. Mike always says we should go for the worst poll for Labour, which is BPIX. Even counting only the worst poll, an infatuated media and near publicity starvation for the Tories delivers an outright majority.
The Tories should stick tight, accept that events have helped Brown and hurt them but also remember that all the fundamentals are in their favour (better leader, recession, government frontbench largely consisting of muppets etc) and stay cool.
5, wouldn’t that give him 30 seats? ‘twould be ironic.
2 SBS. Hope you’re on the road to recovery old chap ??
4 Hey. There are two more names to put on the ever growing list of media outlets not telling the Tory “truth”
Yeah I reckon Labour will end up near their 2005 percentage. It just depends how big a gap Cameron can create. 42% is pretty good, but he needs to be more in the region of 45%.
9, I know, and Maguire is such an ardent Tory supporter.
2. Courage, mon brave.
Glenrothes will indeed be interesting. In fact pretty crucial now, I’d have thought. It’s the plotpoint at the end of the second act on which the whole narrative will turn.
If Labour win, they really are back in the game. If they lose, it means they are doomed under Brown - they really can’t win anywhere, whatever the polls say.
Like I said, it’s Stalingrad, only near Fife, and with Salmond as Hitler to Brown’s Stalin. Or vice versa.
8 - unfortuntely not.
4
Warning you have just broken ‘Smithson’s Law’ rejecting a poll ‘cos you don’t like the result.
2: SBS you have been missed. Get well soon
“Economics: Public finances slump to record deficit
Analysts described the figures as ‘dreadful’ and predict worse to come as the economy deteriorates”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/20/governmentborrowing-economics
re 4. To suggest that YouGov is producing a poll to meet the Mirror’s editorial line is completely wrong and could be seen by senior executives at the firm as being defamatory.
There is too much at stake for any pollster to be seen to be fiddling the figures to meet the needs of an individual client.
PtP and Sean To be fair - I have seen Sean apologise when wrong over questions of “fact”. What I think I would like to see now, with the old order clearly crumbling, is for him to recant on some of his more outlandish right wingery! He’s not going to do it - I knew it, he knew it, we all knew it. But let’s reconvene 3 years down the track….
17. So its co-incidence then ? Just checking..
13. Very sorry to hear that. Thoughts are with you, mate.
Lets see when it was done. The order they come out in the papers is not necessarily the order in which they were conducted.
17, aren’t there well-documented cases of slight patterns in newspaper/pollster partnerships, such as the Guardian/ICM?
12 So who’s Mr Bean?
12, I hope things improve for you.
Further to the point I was making on the last thread about the spread-bet markets discounting opinion-poll movements, I’ve just looked up my notes of August, when I was looking at the market. At that time YouGov had published a poll showing 45% Con, 25% Lab, 18% LibDem. Other polls around that time were in the same area, and one poll even went substantially higher for the Conservatives.
If you entered those figures into the seat calculators, you got a Conservative total of 422 (Electoral Calculus), or 414 (UK Polling Report). Yet the Sporting Index spread at that time was 342-348.
In other words, punters didn’t believe the Tory lead would last, and the spread markets didn’t exactly mimic the opinion polls. So we shouldn’t be surprised if those same punters don’t believe that the current Labour bounce will last, especially given the redundancies, repossessions, and bankruptcies which we know are coming.
The real question is: in what direction will things move from here? There’s a prize for guessing this right!
24, nuts, that was aimed at 13.
13 SBS, join others in wishing you on the road to recovery soon.
Mike Smithson, Why is an 8% Tory YouGov lead great news for Labour, but a ComRes lead of 9% deeply disappointing for Labour as you posted on Saturday evening?
And my best wishes also to SBS.
13 SBS. Very saddened to hear that. Let’s all hope you’ll hear some much better news very soon.
re 22. No.
The ICM Guardian factor was just a coincidence as was seen by later polls.
What do PB’er think would be the public reaction if the Tories won the popular vote say 40% vs 35.5% and wasn’t the largest party in government? I not sure that the wider population realize the extent that the Tories need to win by first to be the largest party and secondly to actually form a majority government. If the economy has taken a terrible turn for the worse and we get this kind of result, do you think it could be the catalyst for serious public outrage?
Am I right in saying that most of the You Gov replies come in in the first day, so a poll started on Thursday would not have the full impact of Cameron’s speech on Friday?
The BPIX on started on Thursday though. Can they do two at exaclty the same time?
re 28. Because YouGov reinforces ComRes and suggests that BPIX is the one that is out of line.
@32 - People don’t care yet, when the case is made nearer to the election, people will become aware of the bias between consevatives and labour in terms of majorities and swings required.
34 But BPIX is, essentially, YouGov. So the inconsistency is an internal YouGov one.
35 - I understand people don’t care yet, and I don’t think they will even in the run up to the election. My point was if this was to occur…
This is certainly a better poll. 34% for Labour is the highest they have reached with YouGov since February.
Was this poll conducted before BPIX or during that time? I any case it would be churlish to say that this wasn’t a good poll for Labour, but no reason for Tories to panic as they are still solidly in the 40’s% and I believe if Brown was silly enough to call en election Labour position would worsen throughout the campaign.
Poor Lib-Dems though. Nick Clegg must be feelig worried at the moment?
34 - But you wrote this piece on ComRes:
“The first full voting intention poll following the bail-out plan and Brown being feted round the world is very disappointing for Labour. The figures are above and show the Tories still in the 40s with Brown’s party nine points adrift.
I was expecting something much closer for the fieldwork took place before Cameron’s big speech when all the focus was on the Prime Minister…”
BEFORE BPIX was published.
32 - TBH it’s unlikely if the Tories were a disasterous 8% ahead they would in reality have just a six seat majority. A gap like that would suggest a huge anti-government incumbent mood within the country, so you would expect bigger swings in certain areas.
The marginals poll this week should be far more indicative of where we stand
Mike
Not saying you are wrong but can’t agree with you here stating this is good news for Labour.
Gord has been reported for being one step away from being Superman, saviour of the world economy and as enjoyed wall to wall coverage for a good few weeks now and quite frankly the Tories maintain an 8pt lead (albeit the worst poll for the Tories yet) which still gives them a majority. I’d say that is abysmal news for Labour.
What will happen when ‘Dave’ gets back in the news again and starts to wallop Gord in PMQs business as usual? Surely Gord’s bubble cannot last for when the reasons for the economy slump is revealed the bubble will pop?!
You have also stated that you believe Labour’s polling share is much lower than the figures suggests going on to argue that their share in the north hardens but softens everywhere else.
So all in all i’d say this is great news for the Tories and dire news for Labour.
Last thread - Rod, you keep linking to loony conspiracy theories despite them being totally debunked. Why?
The Africa/Michelle Obama tapes do not exist, there was never an interview, Jan from Norway (hardly an Obama fan) confirmed that the guy doing this, Sammy Korir, is a 100% charlatan (Norway, strangely, is where the supposedly African International Press is based). He has been called as such by the courts and this is just one more attempt at self publicity.
It doesn’t affect the betting at all because nobody believes it so what’s the point? You don’t really think that the sites you link to are credible do you?
35 People will care. If after an election the ,winning’ party has not got a popular mandate, it will matter.
It will increase resentment. Just look at how the ‘unelected’ nature of Brown was used against him.
Part of the nature of democracy is that the public have to take some responsibility for decisions taken because they chose the people taking them.
If those in power do not have a mandate, the public don’t have to do any such thing. The dislocation between those in power and those on the receiving end is greater.
Part of the anti-Scottish feeling in England is because the English voted for a different party.
17. Alright Mike, calm down old boy. Jings!
18. I’m genuinely unsure as to what I am meant to be apologising for. Supporting capitalism?
Do you honestly think the old order has really “changed”? Do you really think capitalism is somehow… “over”? Duh????? Get A Grip.
No economic system, in the history of humanity, has a record of producing wealth and freedom like capitalism. What’s superior? Socialism like we had in Britain in the 70s? With the unburied corpses? North Korean communism where they eat grass? Cuban style Marxism - which people risk death to escape?
Maybe you’d prefer a Chinese or a Nazi kind of command economy, with slave labour. Perhaps you yearn for Islamic style equality, where poverty goes hand in hand with corruption and misogyny.
Or maybe you are just talking out of yr butt.
All we are seeing now is one of the Corrections to which capitalism is prone (indeed Catastrophe Theory says all systems are prone to these occasional collapses, like a pile of sand to which you add grain after grain, until suddenly it all falls down).
The present Correction will lead to nasty unemployment and a severe downturn in house prices. Some countries will have it worse, and may see racial or civil unrest (perhaps including us). But capitalism will survive, simply because the urge to buy and sell and trade and prosper are written into man’s DNA.
What caused the present Krunch? Irrational exuberance, naked greed, and some dodgy lending and borrowing. Government has a role to play in reining in some of these excesses, and ameliorating the aftermath, but it is a limited role and - once it is done - the state should and will retreat to the sidelines, to let market capitalism do what it does better than any other system, ever devised: making nations and peoples richer and happier.
If you think I’m gonna apologise for believing in that then you are a gonk of the first water.
39. I would say its Labour acutal percentage thats good news for Labour. 34% suggests they are reaching out and improving beyond their core vote.
Keep in mind though, the famous ICM poll from January 1993 that had the Tories leading over Labour. The lead was not mainated and Conservative poll ratings then preceded to drop off a cliff.
36 But we don’t know what weightings etc are used for BPIX - think YouGov ues newspaper readership (Mike?); the BPIX guys being academics might be testing their own theories out.
There seems to be a great deal of hope invested in the assumption that Gordon will be blamed for the recession and that this will be reflected in the polls and election results. I think that the worse the economy gets the better it is for Gordon and the polls have, thus far, borne this out.
The polls will be level by Christmas. If I’m wrong I will be happy to come on here explain that isn’t what I really meant.
Dreadful news for the Lib Dems. Cable has been everywhere during the financial crisis and hardly put a foot wrong for a year. They were also the only one of the 3 major parties that talked about the debt issue for years before the crunch happened. I really don’t understand why the Party is not doing better (ok Clegg isn’t great) but I’m tempted to say that the British people get the politicians they deserve.
I suppose the poll is great news for Labour if you don’t want the BPIX to be right.
Either way, [if Anthony is right and the work on the YouGov had begun by Thursday] most of the work for both was done before Cameron’s speech.
Perhaps the You Gov started on Tuesday or Wednesday [and McGuire held it back!] in which case the Tory lead in the BPIX is a reflection of the massive enthusiasm of those polled late!
Mike 28. Don’t understand the logic. What has BPIX got to do with it? You reject BPIX anyway. Your two comments contradict each other - which do you agree with?
47. Would you be happy to take a wager on that too ?
Reposted from last thread:
Economy still shot then. What did our £500 billion actually buy us? Anyone?
Greetings all, from the survivor of Gorilla Island! Actually a rehabilitation centre for orphaned gorillas (parents killed for “bush meat” - God, it makes me so angry). They (hope) to train them to go back to the jungle. It is proving very difficult so far. Apparently gorillas suffer massively from stress. I just hope they haven’t invested in world stock markets….
Can heartily recommend Gabon. I suspect it could be the next funky place for the colour supplement set. Had a few days down the coast from Port Gentil to see some wildlife. Walking out to an elephant is quite exhilirating. Also being with mummy hippo with baby hippo in a small bay whilst in a very small boat is the sort of thing that gets the Health and Safety folks in a spin! Excellent birdwatching too. (Some of you are thinking - “mmmmmmm: heavily built Nottingham-born, Forest-supporting, anti-Iraq war, birdwatching businessman Tory - you are Ken Clarke and I claim my fiver!”. Not so - but he had very recently signed the visitors book at the Loango Wildlife Lodge!)
It does make you realise that once you get outside the big cities, 95% of the folks on this planet lead very similar lives. The small towns/villages of Africa are essentially the same as those you will see in Brazil or Pakistan or Vietnam. Getting on with the basics of life for your family - food, water, shelter, health - the ingenuity of fixing things with whatever is at hand, whilst aspiring to a few first world gizmos. I think a President Obama will be very attuned to that.
PS: no-one got rich betting against Cameron, Mike….
50 - Exactly. Mike has rather dramatically changed his tune (his prerogative) between Saturday evening and this morning. BPIX is irrelevant.
Have the betting markets responded to this poll?
51. I’d be happy to take a wager but I’d almost certainly not pay up if I lost so I’d advise you to find a higher quality credit risk.
The country is becoming increasingly balkanised imo. I think England, Wales and Scotland have become decoupled in terms of swings. I think Labour support in ethnic majority areas or WWC areas that have seen very little immigration is going to be completely different to WWC areas that have seen a lot. I’d expect that to cause problems for national polls based on where the polling is done.
Mr Smithson, If you are reading this, I would love to know how the PB.com site got hold of news about the ‘Colin Powell’ thing, and of the ‘health scare’ news a full week before the mainstream media..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/19/new-york-times-publishing_n_136002.html
It is no wonder more and more people tune in to this site - as another, less esteemed, blogger might have said ‘You’re either in front of this site, or you’re behind…’
Any other ’scoops’ you feel you should share with us ?
Go on, do tell - we will keep your secrets safe…
55. Ah - a sign of the times - default rates on the rise.
There is a recorded bet page on pb where bets can be listed.
If I can pay up £20 to Mark Senior owed on a bet then anything is possible
19
Pure coincidence, as is the Guardian/ICM vs Other Paper/ICM thing.
Interesting poll and probably the one of the three so far that is most in line with pre-polling expectations.
I stick with my view that the Tory share is the most significant to watch at present. In three polls this has been 40, 46 and 42. Those are very healthy from a Tory perspective.
Labour will of course be happy to be improving in the polls (though this result at 34% is slightly out of line with both BPIX and ComRes, who were more consistent with each other at 30 and 31%).
The current trend therefore seems to be generally solid Tory, bouncing Labour (though the size of the bounce is unclear), squeezed Lib Dems. The interesting question is how Labour now proposes to capitalise on its second chance, given the unremittingly grim outlook for the economy.
53. This poll is better for Labour than ComRes, because ComRes had Labour on 31%, which is flatlining core vote stuff and 34%, which suggests Labour have started winning over floating voters (all-be-it not that many yet)
44 SeanT. Agreed.You could add the disaster that was USSR and East Germany, until they switched to capitalism. Capitalism is, of course far from flawless - however, a country can protect itself to some extent by understanding these flaws, as a number of countries have done. Our government has failed completely in this regard and we are paying the price.
From ONS: “The 1992 Maastricht Treaty on European Union obliged EU member states to avoid excessive government debt levels. The Protocol on Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), an annex to the Treaty, defines this as 60 per cent of GDP.”
From todays FT:
“At the end of September, net government debt – excluding lending to Northern Rock, the nationalised bank – was £563.4bn, equal to 37.9 per cent of gross domestic product.”
Still plenty of room on HMG’s credit card!
13% for the LibDems at the next GE. Been saying that for what, over a year? Mark my words.
And Cameron will have a stormer of an election campaign. I expect his net gain over Labour during the three week campaign to be not less than four points. (Which is also why the LibDems won’t improve during the campaign - Cameron will trump them, regardless of their exposure).
56. Immigration is gonna be a big big issue in the next GE, with unemployment rising. The presumption is that all those Polish plumbers will go home, alleviating some of the pressure - but it now looks like Eastern Europe may suffer from the Krunch just as much as the rest of us. So this assumption may be wrong.
Morever, as constantly needs repeating, the bulk of the enormous immigration into Britain under Labour has come from non-EU countries, much of it from places like India, Bangladesh, Pakistan- this happened because Labour specifically abolished Tory controls on immigration from those places - e.g. primary purpose law.
These people are not going to “go home”, even if we see a slump.
So immigration is going to be a big issue, as jobs dry up. I have no doubt Labour’s focus groups are telling them that white working class voters are very angry about it (and this was confirmed by the NoTW poll on Sunday, which we all seem to have forgotten) - this is why we have seen Woolas’s remarks about “population caps”.
Unfortunately for Labour, Woolas totally screwed up his “intervention”, and the result is that Labour look even more inept and mendacious on this issue than before, if that’s possible.
Immigration is a toxic subject for Labour. It’s one they can’t win on. Tories will always trump them, especially after the last ten years. The best Labour can hope to do, is try and limit the electoral damage. So far they haven’t.
53 Well, it’s definitely less bad news for Labour. But the Conservative share remains solidly on 40%+.
FWIW, I think an outcome along these lines would probably give the Conservatives the sort of lead they had in 1992.
12. Or even in Fife.
Salmond as Hitler is a conceit Scottish Labour might like to borrow.
54 They haven’t yet, Sally. I hope they do because if Labour improve, I’ll sell at the higher prices. I’m certainly not backing out of my current Labour sell position.
Perhaps the other punters in the market are thinking the same as me. There is too much volatility to justify reacting to polls at the moment.
Longer term, the prognosis for Labour ranges from bad to very bad.
61 GIN. But we are told that we cannot compare polls in this way - in any case, why compare the L31-34 without mentioning the C40-42?
64. LOL! That would be virtual metodwon for the Lib-Dems, wouldn’t it?
Clegg would be a goner?
Good morning everybody,
The current YouGov marginal poll being carried out with the results being published this Wednesday will have DC’s speech last Friday& the abysmal PSBR figures released today effected into them - I presume?
P.S
Great win for us last Saturday against Leeds – this is looking like its going to be our year this season – hooray!
68 - What about “horrific”, PtP? Is that now off the radar?
65 I’d expect to see quite a lot of Labour heartland seats in places like the urban West Midlands and South Yorkshire recording BNP votes of 10-15% next time, although Labour are usually sitting on such big majorities that it won’t cost them that dearly.
Andrew Gilligan (In the Standard) is calling for re-nationalisation of the railways: hmmm Boris next?
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23575101-details/Now+can+we+nationalise+the+railways%2C+too%2C+please/article.do
PC/SNP on 10 seats in the calculation seems low…
70 If by “metadwon” you are meaning something that even transcends a meltdown, I think you are correct!
76.
73. They are very high BNP votes! :O Just as well we’re not going to bring in PR, as endlessly supported on here by RodCrosby. Under PR the BNP would be on for a few seats wouldn’t they?
74. If they could get them free then and then renationalise in a better way then good move.
74. They might as well renationalise it as it does make a sort of sense and the borrowing figures are just a number now.
73. I think it’s the 10-15% stay at homes in the marginals that will do the damage on the day.
2.Good to see you posting SBS, wishing you all the best.
72 No, Aaron, ‘horrific’ is still on the radar, though out to the edge of the screen.
Have you spent your Giles Simon winnings yet? You didn’t double up on the Final, did you?
To be honest, if the true share is 43/32/15, all of the polls would be within MoE or thereabouts.
I reckon the actual values are indeed fluctuating - slightly.
Cons at 42-43, Lab at 31-32, LDs at 14-16.
I smell a snap election in the offing.
63 - The NR debt is included in the public debt so it’s no good stating the GDP share without its inclusion - that is just Typical Brown spin who fought long & hard to have it taken off the books but was rightly slapped down by ONS – public debt is public debt.
84. No - I’m seeing a Spring election. Do it in the depths of the recession when people are so scared and depressed they aren’t thinking straight - and are feeling cautious and worried that the Tories might abolish the soup kitchens. That makes a kind of Mandelsonian sense.
The polls are still way too dodgy and volatile right now for them to call a vote before Xmas. And if they wait until 2010 then the recession will be over but the anger will have kicked in.
Spring.
By the way for those that missed Me’s post upthread, government borrowing is ALREADY at its highest since… 1946. And this is before the Darling Splurge.
http://tinyurl.com/697wzd
85, actually, if you take out credit card and mortgage debt off then average individual debt in this country is remarkably low. And if you remove the fat put on by eating junk food our obesity problem disappears.
68. 72. I’d settle for bad to very bad.
Thanks PtP.
86. It would still result in a labour massacre though. Cameron would look much better talking about the future than Brown (actually Cameron looks better doing anything than Brown).
The encouraging aspect of this for the Tories is that they are not leaking support themselves. There is no real swingback from Conservative to Labour but a small proportion of voters are rushing, unsuprisingly, to the government in a time of ‘crisis’.
“Rod, you keep linking to loony conspiracy theories despite them being totally debunked. Why?”
Because he’s a Holocaust denier?
I’ve been on a trawl!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/oct/20/davidcameron-economy
The VAT holiday, maybe illegal under EU law!
84. Oh yes, I can just Labour holding an election in December. What time does it get dark in Scotland in December? 3pm? Labour MP’s would love Brown for doing that!
86. The Sun speculating today that the election will be in the spring. By then though, what if Labour are back to being 20 points behind? I still think Brown will drag on to May 2010, personally.
New captioned pic at the bottom of the Mash front page gets it about right - “Resurgent Brown on course for slightly less humiliating defeat”
77 I don’t believe that you can support/oppose an electoral system on the basis that it excludes one particular party.
The BNP would win representation under PR, but it would still be a drop in the Parliamentary ocean.
82 - I invested some of the winnings in the 8/11 Republicans in WV that Paddy are offering - I certainly didn’t parlay up in the final!
Also had a word for Ventura in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - the 10s has gone but Hills are still 9/1 (e/w recommended).
Though I did seriously consider the Murray/Simon double in the semis and decided not to push my luck… would have been over 30/1…
92. That might make it an even more popular policy
Cam takes on Brussels to ensure tax cut for struggling Uk…
92 I don’t think EU law is worrying member governments very much at the moment.
92. May be illegal? Bit vague.
90. Is it at a time of crisis, or at a time of unremitting coverage?
86.93 He will go in spring if he is ahead, not otherwise. Why turn yourself out early when something may turn up to improve your chances, especially when its happened before.
95. I know, I was just having a laugh of Rodders.
83 If the Con : Lab : LD split were to be 43 : 32 : 15, then the Conservative majority would be 56 (according to Electoral Calculus), rather than 6 with the 42 : 34 : 14 split of the latest poll.
Just emphasises the point I made the other day that the 42% level is crucial for the Conservatives, with a small increase bringing a much larger majority. The current crop of polls would not therefore be a good basis for Brown to call a general Election.
[40] - Figures such as this would indicate a determination to kick out the government amongst some of the electorate, but, almost as much, a determination by some to vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
Otherwise the Lib Dem score wouldn’t be so low [only two-fifths of the Labour score].
80
It depends how angry people are.
Some areas have never recovered from the last recession - they are not going to like a Labour government presiding over a big downturn when they thought that was the ‘tories job’.
“European Money-Market Rates Decline on Emergency Bank Support”
“The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, that banks charge for three-month loans slid 5 basis points to 5 percent today, the European Banking Federation said. The comparable London interbank offered rate, or Libor, in U.S. dollars will decline about 27 basis points to 4.15 percent, according to David Buik…”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a66iO9DLm_xg&refer=home
86.”By the way for those that missed Me’s post upthread, government borrowing is ALREADY at its highest since… 1946. And this is before the Darling Splurge.”
92.”The VAT holiday, maybe illegal under EU law!” So what?
After the last couple of weeks, do you really expect the EU to sit back and abide by a bunch of rules that will make a recession so much worse in individual countries?
They have already waived normal rules with regards the banking bail out, remember that when needs must the EU can shift its backside very quickly. The rules are only there to prevent individual nations from having an advantage in the good times, in the bad times its every nation for themselves…
100. Yes, that’s true, verging on a truism! Clearly he won’t go for a vote if he’s 20 points down.
However I do sense they are preparing the ground for a possible Spring election - dumping so many unpopular policies and positions - SATS, the metrication thing, family courts opened up - and now the cackhanded and utterly failed attempt to change their immigration policy.
They hope to narrow the gap to a toss-up. And if Brown is just a couple of points behind come April or May I think he will be seriously inclined to go for it, and hope that his FPTP advantage brings home the bacon.
Brown is a tiny bit of an electoral coward, as we know. Cowards don’t like being boxed in. Leaving it until 2010 boxes him in.
105. Good news.
Who cares, Gabble?
Is it good news for Labour that the supposedly soft Tory support has hardened?
Is it good news for Labour that they can barely manage to poll their core support just before we plummet into a recession?
Is it good news that they can only achieve poll moves this when Cameron’s out of the news, and even then, only at Cleggnut’s expense?
None of this is ‘good’ news for Labour by any reasonable definition. It’s just that, since Brown is so hopeless, mere bad news is spun into something more by the increasingly desperate journalists at the Gordon Shilling Corporation.
If he goes for an election in the next month or so, will Brown again say the polls have nothing to do with it?
I think we can safely say Mike, the Mail monitors this site!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1078979/Browns-handling-financial-crisis-slashes-Tory-opinion-poll-lead-single-figures.html
Note the six seat forecast, ok they could have used the same calculator, but I doubt it!
@109:
That could be this place’s unofficial motto. That or “Shut up, Roger”.
Cameron should propose both the VAT holiday and Share dividend payout after one year, both of which europe would oppose. What better way of typecasting Brown as Chamberline! Cameron: ‘instead of waving around and proclaiming peace in our time in the fashion of chamberline, why doesnt the PM start standing up for and protecting the British tax payers, savers and pensioners by ignoring these sufficating and recesonary EU regulations?’
93.”84. Oh yes, I can just Labour holding an election in December. What time does it get dark in Scotland in December? 3pm? Labour MP’s would love Brown for doing that!”
I remember the bad weather in April/May 2005 (shudders), I had to keep nipping home from leafleting for a hot drink and warm up by the fire. I ended up in bed with flu!
105 And for that we paid….£500 billion…..
Did anyone hear Alan Duncan today on 5 live between 7.05 and 7.15.
Please listen the interview is fantastic for the way he gave the interviewer such a hard time on her basic misunderstanding of economics.At one point he said to the lady;”Are you a serious interviewer?”
A great put down.
I havent got the link but maybe somebody else can find it and put it up.
114. Not sure a pro-EU party can recommend that European regulations simply be “ignored”. Well, they can, but it’d look pretty inconsistent.
“YouGov poll points to a Tory majority of just 6 seats”
Considering the present share of seats in the HoC’s, that would still be a great result for the Conservatives while being really bad for the present Labour government?
I wonder if the SNP will be worried about the squeeze in the ‘others’?
I suspect not as at the end of the day the by election will not determine the Westminister Government.
Reasonably encouraging news for Labour but the outcome of Glenrothes will be critical. Expect announcements soon on bringing forward major items of public expenditure and this could cause probs for the cons in knowing how to respond. Especially as regards housing - the govt will soon hopefully buy cheap housing stock to make available for rent but the cons are so ideologically opposed to the rented sector that they won’t be able to support this.
107 ST
A coward, but also a ditherer. 2009 might leave him un-boxed-in, but 2010 is much more likely, given the dithering. I think the best he might be able to manage is to go a couple of months early, in about March. In his book, that’d be decisiveness of the highest order.
Rob
O/T
Crude heading for $50
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aVShPh3jhYcw&refer=uk
A poster on here recently said that the Russian economy was only viable at crude >$75.
Should Ukraine be nervous ?
121 The director of one housing association which houses a lot of “problem” families told me he’s being encouraged to buy up loads of unsold new build properties - and admitted to me that’s extremely bad luck for private owners who suddenly find themselves living next door to his tenants.
120. I think “others” in UK-wide polls tends to misrepresent Scotland, where the most popular party is included in that category. The SNP have seven seats at the moment, six of which were won in 2005. It’s pretty hard to believe they’re not going to improve on that next time.
Afternoon all
Re: 2 - Best wishes to you, SBS, hope things improve for you.
Re: 70 & 76: - Oh dear, the usual predicatable comments from the usual suspects. I’m quite comfortale with this poll and still think the party will win 35-40 seats next time on a poll rating of around 18-20%. Nothing that has happened in the past month has caused me to change my view.
There will be plenty of time to win money off Cameron once he is Prime Minister but even now the assumption that the next election campaign will be some form of triumphal progression seems ridiculous, not to mention a shade patronising.
Anyway, my thoughts on other things here:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2008/10/obama-on-brink14-days-to-go.html
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2008/10/liboration-day.html
@124:
Yes, their brand new £300K papier mache shoebox won’t save them from the alluring tones of a nearby crack-fuelled wifebeating.
107. If its next spring, I assume he’ll hold it on “Super Thursday” June 4th, when there will be county council and european elections going on.
As there will be a euro election campaign going on at the same time, maybe Brown will pledge to join the euro in the next Parliament in some mad, convuluted strategy to try and demonsrate “Tory Splits”
The very best wishes to SBS - thanks for continuing to post here in what must be difficult times. Most people who are ill start caring a lot less about the rest of the world.
Mike’s not noticed in his article that the fieldwork dates are in fact in the Mirror piece - Wednesday-Friday. That spans the Cameron speech period, but is likely to be mostly before it as online respondents tend to be snappy. I’d be sceptical that one not very content-rich speech will have shifted anything much.
I think I get bragging rights for this poll - IIRC it’s exactly what I predicted the other day. As GIN’s very fair comments suggest, it reflects the scattering of floating voters that we’re beginning to pick up, as we discovered in last Saturday’s canvass. As SeanT has said, we’ve clearly picked up from the depths of the summer, and I agree that the Tories are reasonably stable in the low 40s.
What we don’t know is where things go from here. But an opposition lead of 8% with up to 20 months to an election is by no means an insurmountable obstacle. The Tories here believe that the bleak economic outlook will shift things back their way. It might do, but they’re positioned themselves as the fair-weather party. We’ll share the proceeds of growth! We’l build more high-speed rail links! We’ll give everyone council tax holidays! People don’t see this stuff as very credible right now.
BTW, seanT describes me at post 1 as a communist, dropping the usual accurate ‘former’. I’ve never expressed any regret for the Eurocommunist views of my teens, but my teens are, sad to say, four decades ago and I’ve long since regretfully decided that democratic communism isn’t a practical project. Magically make me a teenager again and you can call me anything you like, old boy; otherwise, please keep it accurate.
I am surprised at the quibling over a few points in the polls! 2 polls put the tory lead in high single figures, two put it in the mid teens!
Meanwhile in the real world!!! The economy forecast to shrink by 1% next year! That is on top of Q 2 showing Zero growth and likely contractions in Q3 & Q4. What does this mean 2 years of contraction before an election is a strong possibility! Added to which Government Borrowing of 12.6 £Billion in one month! This is something you should not do with government borrowing but i will do it anyway 12 x £12.6 = 151.2 Billion for a whole year!
Obviously there would be quite a measure of error on that say 10- 20 Billion either way. But that is still one hell of a problem and i doubt the most recent nationisations are included.
Sorry to hear SBS is still unwell - Hope you recover/ get well soon mate!
Like everyone else here, I wish SBS well.
128
With lots of people wondering where to go on their summer hols?
129. Happy to oblige, Nick, and apologies for the inaccuracy.
As you rightly say, you were actually a communist AFTER the Great Stalinist Terror and DURING the Cold War, when we were menaced with destruction by communism.
Now you are a former communist.
129, a freeze isn’t a holiday. If your prediction was right, kudos, but it’s laughable to describe Cameron’s speech as content-free (he did accurately criticise the government and outline a longterm approach, though he had a gap where the immediate response should be which is gradually being filled) after your own leader claimed credit for the work of Disraeli’s government and pledged £300m on free laptops in his own speech, whilst misquoting the Shadow Chancellor and conjuring up his own unique borrowing figures which essentially involve removing everything inconvenient so it’s nice and low.
” I smell a snap election in the offing. ”
Bring it on I say… Labour would get tonked.
127 Not to mention dog dirt strewn across the common garden area, several cars being dismantled in the parking spaces, a couple of burning tyres as you come home from work, sacks of rubbish left all over the estate, and feral children vandalising the streetlights. I have direct experience of living in such an estate at the time of the last recession, when our developer went bust and half the houses were sold to a housing association.
O/T Next Permanent Question Time Presenter (Ladbrokes)
I’ve narrowed it down to the following five:
Paxo……4-1
Brillo….10-1
Vine……12-1
Edwards…16-1
Campbell..20-1
Wish list (Not!)….Wark …3-1 Fav… Please God No!
In my Dreams ……Littlejohn…100-1..Rank Outsider…Heaven sent!
My value bet… Nicky Campbell at 20-1.
129
Have your bragging rights for now Nick if it makes you happy. The economy will do for Labour and its poetic justice that it will, Mr “No more boom and bust” is going to be hoisted by his own petard. NO amount of spin will be able to counter what is coming.
Yes indeed, get well soon SBS.
130
“The economy forecast to shrink by 1% next year”
Yes I read that as well.
UK economic forecasters have a poor track record in getting anything correct : even allowing for forecasts being just that, one would assume a normal forecasting error means they would be at times optimists and at times pessimists.
Well here’a well kept secret : on GDP gorth over time, very few economists forecast recessions correctly. I recall 1979-81 and 1989-91 when the severity of the recession caught all forecasters by surprise.
With new cars sales down 20%, retail down 1% in September and house building at a crawl, a 1% decline is imo optmistic.
-3% looks more likely to me.
And we are in for a three year recession not one ending 2010.
129. But an opposition lead of 8% with up to 20 months to an election is by no means an insurmountable obstacle.
Bit disingenuis Nick! The PM had two weeks of air time unopposed with the BBC hailing him for saving the world with the plan Brown had been advised to implement by Darling, who had been told the options by the civil service, who had got the idea from Scandanavia Bank problems some time ago!
Taking the polls as a whole for the last couple of years, the local and By-elections plus given the economic backdrop i don’t think Labour have a chance in hell of winning (Hope you buck the trend!) - It is good though you that you have become more partisan of late!
Labour can mitigate their defeat but not with Brown, Just out of interest Nick are you proud of the 50 achievements of Labour since 1997 and the 2005 Labour Manefesto because someone seems to have deleted both on the Labour party website! 
117 here is the link:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00dzy0h
fast forward one hour
119. Trying to run a Government with a six seat majority is nigh on impossible in the medium term. Governments often lose by-elections and after a couple of years the Tories could find themselves in truck to the nutjobs from Northern Ireland to pass legislation. On the other hand DC could get in, prove he is not a muppet, then go to the country with a Wilson-style snap election: as the economy should be on an upturn by then, he may well win a substantial majority.
121 “the cons are so ideologically opposed to the rented sector that they won’t be able to support this.”
Eh? I believe we Conservatives are ideologically opposed to bureaucrats telling us how to organise our affairs. That certainly doesn’t translate into hostility to the rented sector. Or the owner-occupier sector, for that matter. It’s known as ‘choice’.
But of course what you are proposing is the government taking on financial risk by punting taxpayers’ money on the housing sector - which is something very different. I think Conservatives may well be ideologically opposed to reckless public spending and imprudent government borrowing, given that this is, in part, what got us into this mess in the first place.
Just because Labour have had to risk countless billions on shoring up the financial sector doesn’t mean that it’s suddenly OK to risk yet more billions elsewhere. Remember that, for most of the past decade, a great economist - one of the finest Chancellors since Hervey de Stanton - repeatedly talked about the need for prudence and the ‘golden rule’ of public borrowing, so all major parties agree on that, don’t they?
I’ve added this to the main article.
[UPDATE 1230: The Mirror poll was an old poll. It's now clear that the fieldwork for the YouGov poll took place from Wednesday to Friday - so was a day earlier than BPIX. Given that most of the responses come in within the first couple of days then it would have been affected very little by the Cameron speech on Friday. The latter would have had a much greater impact on BPIX. The Tories always poll much better when their leader is in the headlines.]
I’d like to join in sending of good wishes to SBS.
Nick says the poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday. Obviously he thinks it makes no difference that most of the responses came in on Wednesday when Cameron was pretty much wiped off our screens.
[Ha! 'One content free speech' is what Gordon usually relies on.]
But this fits with Mike’s prediction. That the later polls would be better for Cameron.
I was right! The huge swing in the BPIX poll came from the stragglers coming in at the end! [Maybe?]
124. You illustrate my point. If I may say so, it’s a typically conservative response that you focus on “problem” families rather than the majority of people who want to rent their homes - a number that’s now going up hugely - who are just ordinary decent people who can’t afford to buy.
42. I too have grown tired of the latest ’scandalous’ links to duff yarns about Obama/Kenya etc. Does anybody care about this stuff? General Powell had this one right I suspect: it’s the economy, stupid.
5: “Poll lead leads to a result that feels much like 1992″
At face value, yes, Jonathan.
But the polls immediately prior to the 1992 GE were (if I recall) showing Labour ahead or at best, a dead heat between the top two. I don’t recall (and it is 16 yrs ago and I was only 16 at the time) the Tories polling more than the high thirties. They got 41% on the day.
Today’s poll sugggests to me a nice workable Tory majority, and something far better than 1992 ever was. I cannot see the LDs coming out with just 21 MPs either.
That the Tory share has held up at 40%+ in the weekend/today polls is quite remarkable. Enough people to matter want Labour/Brown out. They weren’t so sure in 1992.
137. Has David Dimbleby not denied that he is going to walk out over the proposed change of production venue?
145 I WAS RIGHT! I WAS RIGHT! I WAS RIGHT!
[But i won't get carried away.]
139 Ben - You asked yeterday about a ‘firewall’ bet for McCain.
Of the suggestions you put forward, Ohio is certainly a better bet than Florida. Since the Powell endorsement however, I think things have changed. It’s very hard to judge how much effect it will have but I’d be careful about betting on the Eastern States of Virginia (both) or the Carolinas, where the military is very strong.
Indiana is probably your best bet but it has been so long since we had any meaningful polling there that it’s a bit of a risk. FWIW, I think Georgia is fairly safe so perhaps that.
NB - NOT Montana or N Dakota. The prarie States seem to be registering bigger swings than most, perhaps because the farmers there feel let down by the current administration.
145. As a Labour-hater I’d like to think that explains it, Mike, but I’m with Nick Palmer, the former communist, on this one: I can’t believe one single speech by Cameron would have swayed so many voters back to the Tories.
The difference between the polls is, surely, just a mixture of statistical noise - and volatility during a time of crisis.
Basically the Tories are SOMEWHERE between 8 and 16 points ahead, (probably towards the lower end of that range) and their lead could be going in either direction. Who knows?
That’s all we can say, really.
147 Problem families will form quite a high proportion of those renting (as opposed to buying) from housing associations.
Mike, I’d be interested in looking at a regional split and also the results from marginal seats. As the economy worsens I’d expect the Labour core vote to look to Labour for protection. In the 1980s and even in 1979 they did quite well in the big northern conurbations, despite bad overall national results. I’m expecting more moves by Labour to shore up its core vote. However, it does mean conceding the election to the Tories as the swing to the Tories happens in areas where it most benefits them.
A big loser from this core-vote Labour strategy would be the Libdems who would fail to make much headway in the Labour heartlands where they are hoping to offset losses to the Tories elsewhere. Still, I never thought much of this strategy, anyhow.
35 - People don’t care AT ALL. Certainly not enough to make a difference - look at the draconian legislation that has been passed without so much as a murmur from an indifferent public.
As an example, at the weekend I tried to buy cable from a well known DIY store, for a qualified electrician to fit. Another customer was bemoaning the myriad of rules governing electrics, with a shop assistant agreeing with every word. Yet when I asked them for advice on outdoor cabling they both turned into rabid jobsworths, berating me for daring to buy the cable without qualification, reciting the very regulations they were berating seconds earlier and relishing every minute of it.
No-one will protest as most of us have now been conditioned to accept control without question.
148. The only person who links to this stuff/who is interested in it, seems to be Rod Crosby. What are his motives?
145 - There is the equivalent of a 4 point swing between the YouGov and the BPIX polls (and yes, I know they aren’t strictly comparable). That is an extraordinary amount to attribute to one day’s coverage of David Cameron. I prefer to reverse the Leonard Cohen song title: One of These Cannot Be Right.
Apologies for bringing it up again, however, do we know what the BPIX question was?
re 153. Wrong Sean. I’ve tracked this closely for three years. If Cameron is in the news immediately before or at the start of fieldwork then the Tories do better. It’s not the speech or what he said but the fact that he is being given coverage. Friday-Saturday he was making the big headlines.
154. Yes. While social landlords have a legacy of decent long term tenants, this is a diminishing number, the only people who are entitled to social housing, are often the precise people you pay more in your property prices to be as far away as possible from.
The criteria used to determine need is little more then a ‘fecklessometer’, your eligibility is matched by your capacity for fecklessness.
On the Mirror poll - I wrote a comment and deleted it because I thought it sounded too suspicious [abit mad in fact].
But it was along the lines of …… McGuire had seen the poll and been disappointed. He decided it rather undermined the narrative he wanted to spin out. So he held off publishing it.
Then, having seen the BPIX POLL and the ICM News of the World poll, [even the Comres with a 9 point lead] he had a rethink.
Another poll and more nonsense being talked about it . It is pointless compoaring this poll to BPIX . As I said yesterday , we do not even know what polling question(s) BPIX asked and in what order and the results that were quoted were and are absolutely worthless .
Re this poll , it purports to show that in a GE Labour support will be down just 2% on what it achieved at the last GE . At this stage that is clearly not born out by any real polling result . Every single recent council byelection shows Labour support well down on the last GE , a few show a small bounce from a very low level achieved in 2006/2007/2008 most show Labour support even lower than the poor results they managed to achieve in those poor election years .
I recall pointing out that , during the so called Brown bounce last year , improved poll ratings were not translated into any significant improvement in local election performance then and this is so now also .
144. you also make my point - that this will be a big divide. It is not much of a “choice” to be homeless.
With reference to public spending it’s interesting that Darling quotes Keynes in news reports this morning, and the cons will have to take a view on increased borrowing to respond to a recession. Dave within the last year talked about the “end of economic history” implying that Keynesian economics is dead. I think he’ll have to dust off his old PPE textbooks soon…
@157:
You must be new here.
What would you say were the motives of somebody who public expressed holocaust denial?
“Gordon Brown’s wife Sarah to lead Labour fight for Glenrothes”
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/10/20/exclusive-gordon-brown-s-wife-sarah-to-lead-labour-fight-for-glenrothes-86908-20820624/
I am currently listening to that Alan Duncan interview. Shockingly poor from the 5 live woman, she seemed incapable of responding to intelligent honest answers. This wasnt a soundbite interview from a party hack. Alan Duncan knows his brief, fully, it is quite reassuring to listen to someone who has an idea how to get us through this.
160 - If it’s that dramatic, the general election campaign is going to be a cakewalk for the Tories. Even Ave It might struggle to keep up.
Daily Kos/R2000 poll out. Obama 50-42. Yesterday’s sample was Obama up 8, against 7 the two previous days.
http://www.dailykos.com/
Zogby poll might indicate a Powell effect, but difficult to identify in the R2000. I would think that such an effect would be quite immediate. It will be interesting to see the rest of today’s trackers. McCain cannot afford another setback, his chances are slim as they are.
164.
Alan duncan also quoted Keynes, neither he nor the weak interviewer pointed out that in 1980 Mrs Thatcher actually increased taxes and froze spending during a recession.
167. Let me guess, she stuttered, asked poor questions and didn’t understand the answers?
Latest Research 2000/DKos tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 50%
Note - Yesterday M-43/O-50. Partial post CP endorsement sample.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/20/7322/9725/950/635694
First things first, best wishes to SBS.
A Tory lead of eight points, implying well over a hundred gains would still be far from a bad result (and in both post-war periods when a party won power very narrowly after a longish period in opposition - 1951 and 1964 - they went on to comfortably increase the majority at the next election). By contrast, 273 seats would be Labour fewest since 1987.
It’s also not that surprising. Brown and Labour have had media coverage as good as anything for them since last Summer and that has to have an effect. While it should provide a temporary boost, I doubt it will be much beyond that. For one thing, few people give credit to anyone for preventing problems from happening - not least because it’s not very obvious what impact the decisions had. For another, the decisions have been taken now. If the crisis has to be revisited, clearly they weren’t as effective as was made out; if not, the banking problems will be overtaken as a media story by the slowdown in the real economy.
It’s also further confirmation of Mike’s longstanding hypothesis that the Tory lead goes up when he’s in the news. He hasn’t been and the lead has fallen (though the share hasn’t particularly).
One other thought. If EVFEL goes through, Cameron’s majority for a lot of domestic legislation will be much higher than six.
Finally, a bit of a surprising post by Nick at [129], which seems to imply that he’d like to be a Communist if only it could be made to work. In other words, it’s fine in principle. Have I got that right?
63 and off balance sheet debt is ?
Full crosstabs for the R2K poll :
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/20
166: she’ll do OK in the hand-shaking stakes. She’s had rather a lot of practice at that since she married, it would seem…
100. It is undoubtedly a time of spin rather than crisis Sally. We know that but for the millions under the influence of a complicit media there is the illusion of crisis.
167. I heard that this morning. Quite shocking that she had no idea about the subject she was asking questions about. Loved it when Dinky asked if she was a serious interviewer! He seemed bewildered.
171. And, because she didnt understand the answers, she asked him the same questions again repeatedly. This wasnt a case of Alan Duncan talking impenetrable jargon, but trying to explain fully a very complex subject. She was made to sound like a fool.
170 - was that the R5 interview with Shelagh Fogarty? Hilarious - at one point Duncan asked her “Are you a serious political interviewer?”
178. another highlight was when he went “well thats just a crazy question” quite a bizarre interview
re 155. I have been booked by Channel 4 to take part in a discussion on Wednesday on a YouGov marginals poll that they have commissioned. So we’ll get another pointer in a couple of days.
182, is that for the 7pm news?
182. What’s your float mike? Only blue smarties?
182. Do you sometimes get the feeling that mainstream media journalists and researchers mine this site and present it as their own insight?
While this site doesnt have copyright on the term ‘dead cat bounce’, you get the feeling the News of the World lifted it wholesale from comments on here.
176. I thought that, contrary to reports on here, Gordon did kiss before his conference speech - just with less tongue than he deployed on Mme Sarkozy.
186. *did kiss Sarah
160. Yes Mike, I know your theory on Cameron Coverage, and it makes a lot of sense to me. But still… I just find it hard to believe one single speech could double a Tory lead.
But in this case I will be more than happy if I am proved wrong.
162. I don’t think that’s a mad theory at all. It makes a lot of sense to me: the Mirror is wildly pro-Labour, as is Maguire, and they would happily use any polling result they had to try and change the media script if they could do so.
Holding back and publishing it after the BPIX Tory boost, to neuter the effect of that, would be perfectly sensible - from the Mirror’s perspective.
Not saying this is what happened - just that it is quite possible.
188. Although they’d have to have known what was in the BPIX survey to have done that.
164 - No textbooks need to be dusted off. It’s really quite simple. Labour were responsible for mind-boggling waste and profligacy during the boom years, especially after 2000. As a result, as we enter the recession, we’re starting from a very bad position in the public finances. In the recession, public spending will have to increase substantially, quite apart from the (necessary but expensive) rescue package which Brown has been praising himself for.
So, had it not been for Labour’s profligacy, we would be in a position to handle increased public spending and perhaps stimulate the economy by reducing taxes a bit, allowing public borrowing to increase to take up the slack - exactly as Brown, in his mantra about the ‘golden rule’ and controlling borrowing over the economic cycle, claimed was his policy.
Unfortunately he didn’t follow his own stated policy. The result is that there is no headroom left. Under whichever government is in power, expenditure will have to rise, so taxes will have to increase, if borrowing is not to get totally out of control, with the corresponding risks of inflation and devaluation of sterling. In this environment, proposing to increase wasteful public expenditure even more is the height of irresponsibility.
On the difference between YouGov and BPIX.
I would like to rely on the later, but its too early and so I won’t.
But Labour have been the only show in town for weeks now. That situation was as unreal as the unremittingly bad publicity of Brown up to the conference. It would reasonable to think that some of the support for Labour might be very soft.
There is a theory that the internet pollsters are susceptable to inflating ‘noise’ at times of great change/upheaval.
Look back at the non election [they seem to have a good record when it comes to the normal cicumstances or the usual build up to an election].
Its quite possible that YouGov overestimated the Labour vote because of their blanket news coverage [34 is on the high side of recent polls] and BPIX overestimated the swing back.
Labour are less than 34 but the Tories are not really 46 [unless Dave is in the news - which of course he will be in an election campaign].
185 Yes. Sometimes stuff is lifted wholesale from this site, without attribution.
Time for Gordon to hold a snap election? Don’t hold your breath.
189 No. He could have decided to shelve it altogether. Then changed his mind.
189 No. He could have decided to shelve it altogether. Then changed his mind.
182 For betting is your view still that what counts is whether the Tories stay above 40% and Labour’s poll rating only becomes relevant if it slips to less than that.
185. 192. Then why do they get it so horribly wrong?
184. The term is “rider”
I wonder if the Daily Mail have now removed their article on a 6 seat maj. now they know its an old poll? [She asks, rhetorically]
Well, on the bright side at least Glenrothes is interesting and will have an impact. With Labour 28 points down any loss could be written off. Now if they lose it’ll be serious (as well as amusing).
I don’t think you can rely on the BPIX results until you know what the question was.
Seems like we have got some good old fashioned spin on the massive increasing in government borrowing/debt and future spending. The one o’ clock news had the BBC using the term “investing our way out of recession”. Look for that one to be a key slogan / mantra to be belted out at every opportunity. Labour investment vs Tory cuts.
107 / 128
There was some speculation, way back when Mr Brown was popular, that Labour would hold the General Election at the same time as the EU elections if they were clever, as the Conservatives would lose votes to UKIP.
Not sure I believe it myself. UKIP’s EU vote might go up, on increased turnout, but people are quite capable of voting one way on their EU/council ballot, and another way on their General Election ballot.
Long thread of poll froth - but the only thing worth posting is to send my good wishes to SBS - hang in there and hope to hear some better news soon. Take care.
202 I agree with that. You’d probably just see split ticket voting.
185. maybe so, but the “dead cat bounce” cliche was certainly not invented on this site!
202
Not to say Labour won’t try it though. I don’t see the headlines being warm and fuzzy June ‘09 > June ‘10. Worth a punt, punter?
190. You don’t seem to have heard of the 1930’s - balancing budgets during a recession was the policy then, and it led to a decade of unemployment, riots, political extremism, etc.
201. you use the word “spin” because you don’t like the policy but unless the Tory leadership do some quick adjustment then it will indeed be a case of “Labour investment vs Tory cuts”.
I wonder if we’ll hear from the elusive Osborne this lunchtime
As a highly partisan Tory I’ve just listened to the now notorious interview. It is not as bad as people are making out.
188. Bare in mind that Cameron had created a political cease fire and had been out of the news. It is a similar event to when NR happened last year and IIRC the turn around is extremly palperbal in these circumstances. NP is just trying to spin it in the most favourable way for Labour - Which in his circumstances I would do the same.
The real bad news for any political party is the LD’s: Vince Cable was never out of the News, TV studio’s & other media yet they slump to low teens. The LD’s seem doomed - DOOMED!
209. Problem for LD is that Cable has a higher brand awareness than the LDs.
The Vince Cable party would score higher than the LDs at the minute.
210 - Perhaps the Vince Cable party might consider merging with a different partner? If internet rumours are to be believed, the Vince Cable party is not without options.
91/165. The things that I allegedly “denied” have also been accepted as false by mainstream historians since about 1960, which in any case is years before the word “holocaust” was first coined to describe the fate of the Jews during the Second World War…
to wit, there were no gas chambers in Germany, and no lampshades, soap, etc. made out of human parts…
210
…and might well be able to count on the elusive Rowan Atkinson endorsement! Go, Vince!
207. The point is Labour’s Fiscal mismanagement has caused a situation where there is little room for public spending.
I think Labour are wrong on this, Public spending on big projects will do little to alliavate white collar workers who are going to feel the brunt of this recession. This is not like the 1930’s it is different again! Addeded to that the sort of projects Labour have said they want to speed up will only get underway post recession anyway!
Far better to have drastic Interest rate cuts and if the public finances allow it tax cuts.
206 If Brown is still Leader I can’t see it. If someone else is possibly. But I think there is only one window for Brown going now whether he jumps or is pushed and that opens and closes in June. If he survives that he’s there until the election the following year.
Whoever said that the BBC licence fee wasn’t value for money? As a result of the educational and informative programme by Stephen Fry in America, I have just discovered that I have been wrong for the last quarter of a century about the location of the Mason-Dixon line:
http://i37.tinypic.com/mjmpzo.jpg
I think we’ve nearly all agreed that the BPIX poll is hard to interpret, for the reasons mentioned by Mark Senior. But there will be some more along soon, so we don’t need to argue about it. Good for Mike that he’s been invited to discuss the marginals poll - hope you’re getting a good fee for it. Whatever the results, can you make the point that it is difficult to be sure of selective polls unless they’re weighted by constituency demogrsaphics (maybe this is, but I guess not)? But if there’s an earlier poll on the same basis it should give a good basis for comparison.
173: David, if you want to explore my views you can find a long ramble about them here:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/362
Summary is that I like the underlying concept of ‘from each according to ability, to each according to need’ (which was the original definition of communism) but I wasn’t willing to accept the Eastern European model and came to feel that the whole idea simply wasn’t practical as a political programme. Because communism has been in practice normally associated with dictatorships, we tend to think of it in terms of places like East Germany, and lose sight of the original philosophy, which IMO isn’t that different in concept from Christianity (which would also not be easy to implement as a political programme).
152. Thanks – I’m thinking Ohio. Can’t see that going Blue, so could be a cheap firewall bet to hedge my now duff-looking McCain position.
212. ‘in Germany’. Nice bit of nit-picking, there.
216 - You just brought back to me (with a shudder) Mason & Dixon by Thomas Pynchon. Why I have now read two Thomas Pynchon novels from start to finish is quite beyond me.
201
Ah yes. We have over a decade of Labour ‘investment’ to look back on…
212. But there were gas chambers in Austria, Poland, etc…?
207 - It has nothing to do with it, just pointing out the way in which very bad figures were spun on BBC. Stating this could well be the new line of attack. I have no idea what the hopeless Gideon will do next, I don’t think he does until he is briefed.
However, it is not for the BBC or a member of the BBC news to call “for us to invest our way out of a recession”. That is the exact words the presenter used when asking the economics editor about todays figures, was if I heard correctly, “so am I right in that the government are going to continue to borrow money to INVEST our way out of recession”.
Not a spend borrowed money in an attempt to..hope to..plan to. The language used is important. No questioning of if this is the correct policy, just a mutter from the economics editor that the debt was large, borrowing was very large, but this idea of INVESTING had grounds in academic thought.
209 - No, it wasn’t - my missus thought Duncan was being rather rude, in fact. Combative would be my preferred epithet.
190. All this ignores the fact that our public borrowing as a percentage of GDP is 43 per cent, the lowest in the G7. Italy’s is 110 per cent, Japan’s 180 per cent. The govt can actually afford to borrow a bit more, even if the consumer certainly cannot.
Regarding tax cuts, Keynes would advocate them in a downturn along with a hike in borrowing and public spending. But I reckon the government won’t bother this time as it fears that should it cut taxes, the public will simply squirrel the cut away in savings rather than pump it back into the economy, where it’s needed, through consumer spending.
216. It amuses me that the south starts so far north! I had always assumed the south started a couple of states further south! It is an interesting program Fry does!
Good recession TV as it distracts from the present circumstances! Not sure what looking at rotting dead bodies has any specific significance to the US but it was interesting anyway but SeanT enjoyed that bit!
227. Is Sean an undertaker?
Gordon’s new record..
The cumulative borrowing for the period from April to September of £37.59bn is up from the £21.46bn borrowed in the same period a year earlier and represents the largest total for a six month period since records began in 1946.
224
It shows who is inhabiting who’s thoughtworld.
The BBC was merely being ‘on message’.
216 Punter
No doubt Mr Mandelson would be happy to arrange for Labour to have another leader, but I take your point.
224. Gideon? Why is it people seme to think it’s really witty and clever to use George Osbourne’s old name, as if because they know it they are somehow insiders with special knowledge.
224. Gideon is the weak link for the Tories. I keep saying it. Do people listen? He is so bad, so whiney and pathetic that he alone has the potential to lose the election for the Tories, which would otherwise be, in my view, a shoe-in. Boy George as Chancellor? No thanks.
232. I never knew he was Gideon Osborne! With a name like that its no wonder he changed it.
234. He hasn’t changed it, as far as I know. His real name is Gideon George Oliver Osborne. He just uses his first middle name.
233. On the other hand Labour supporters clearly loath him with a passion, much more than any other leading Tory, including, it seems, David Cameron? Doesn’t that imply “Boy George” is actually the one they fear?
i heard the 1pm news too. whilst it makes sense to let borrowing rise during a recession and to do some public works projects it helps if , going into that phase we havent borrowed up to the hilt in the first place. Gordon brown LIES that he has paid off debt in the good times but this is wrong. Keynes said you should pay off debt in good times. We haven’t done that. It means we will be saddled by extreme levels of borrowing at the end of recession, and big tax rises at some point.
Its almost worth letting Labour win the next election so they have to live with clearing up the train wreck that will be the public finances. After all, they have got them into this mess. Come 2010 and beyond there’ll be no way of avoiding the huge debt we have as a nation taken on. We may not get a depression now, just a deep recession, but we may well also have a decade of austerity like the post war / early 1950’s period . Happy days to come, thanks to Crash Gordon.
233. Why would they listen? Osbourne’s performances so far haven’t been at all bad, in fact it was his performance at last years conference that helped push the tories back to the forefront. Your acting like he hasn’t got a clue, a stance for which there is no fact, just your opinion.
232 - Sounds like you are as sensitive to it as he is. Not sure which side I’m getting attacked from :-). Point out the BBC spinning again, then get somebody telling me I don’t like the policy when I said nothing of the sort, just pointed out how the BBC were spinning todays economic and political news. Then I get somebody picking up that I happen to refer to Osbourne by his birth name.
235 Oliver Osborne would be an even better name. Oliver Osborne, aka, Oli Osborne!
208
Mr Cameron gave a very good explanation of the Conservatives’ position on the Today Programme.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2453301/cameron-chooses-his-battleground.thtml
(after a jaw-dropping ’scene setter’ from Nick Robinson)
Thumbnail sketch: business tax/NI cuts, defer VAT payments for small business > in order to allow the BoE to cut interest rates.
224 - ironic that his announcement in 2007 over IHT was a large part of Brown’s collapse in the polls.
208 Ermintrude - Before accusing me of ignorance, you would do better to improve your English comprehension skills. I explicitly said: “…allowing public borrowing to increase to take up the slack…”. I did not propose “balancing the budget during a recession”, as you mispresented my words. The problem Labour have created is precisely that they have NOT allowed room for the increased spending which is inevitable in a recession.
But leaving aside partisan points, from a betting point of view, the question is how the electoral mood will change from here as the economy deteriorates. I agree that for the Conservatives to say ‘we wouldn’t have started from here’ is a weak message politically, even if true and entirely fair. But the simpler ‘Things are bad and Brown got us into this mess’ is, I believe, the message which will stick, even if it’s not entirely fair. And I don’t think it’s a message which will need to made explicitly by Cameron and Osborne; I think voters will reach that conclusion themselves.
228. No, it was what he said about morbid fascination! Although I am sure SeanT would like to bury the Labour party!
236. I know, it’s startling, they keep saying he’s rubbish, despite the tories being well ahead in the polls. Now Ed Balls is a pile of useless crud.
235 - Like James (Gordon) Brown. Calling him Gideon says more about you than him, bluntly.
241, summary of the scene-setter?
44. No economic system, in the history of humanity, has a record of producing wealth and freedom like capitalism. (a) What’s superior? Socialism like we had in Britain in the 70s? (b) With the unburied corpses? North Korean communism where they eat grass? (c)
(a) Wealth and “freedom” (i.e. the freedom to exploit, and the freedom to buy good health or education services only if you’re rich enough) for the few; exploitation, misery and degradation for the many (mostly in the third world which is the target of imperialism).
(b) Britain in the 1970s had capitalism in a situation of crisis, not socialism.
(c) They don’t eat grass in North Korea. Some did briefly in the mid-1990s, when they had floods and famine within a short period of time, but not now. As a result of the Arduous March of the Korean people, party and government, those difficulties were overcome, and the regime - contrary to the expectations of western media and politicians - survived. If the ordinary people of NK were still eating grass, they would have said so to my colleagues who were there last year (contrary to common misconceptions, they had complete freedom of movement to go out on their own and talk to ordinary people, and were not chaperoned everywhere). Similarly, China has made excellent progress in solving the food problem, and has avoided famine since the 1960s - after thousands of years of very frequent famines. Can the same be said about India and Africa, still suffering from imperialism?
236. In the abrupt style of an answer to a Mike S thread question. No.
(Cameron is the guy that commands fear/respect – a great operator and a decent guy in my view – Ozzie is a whiney pillock)
246. What does it say about me?
It was only about 12 months ago that labour trolls were promoting Osborn to take over the leadership of the Conservative party. That having failed, they are now attempting to sow the seeds of discontent by saying he is useless.
249, Osborne’s delivery is undoutbedly inferior to Cameron’s, but he is a clever chap. The council tax freeze is simple, saleable and cheap, likewise the IHT policy.
The thing that brought home how GEORGE Osboure was the weak link for the Tories, was when flicking between Newsnight and QT a couple of weeks ago.
Although Osbourne did quite well fending off Kisty Warks accusations of it being Tory policy that had caused his economic crisis and pointing a limp finger at Brown via the FSA, for me the contrast couldn’t have been bigger on the other channel.
Ken Clark seem to be able to dominant QT very quickly. The weaker performers get interrupted by Dimbleby (both Tory and Labour) or other panelists. Clark had them fairly quiet and listening as he was able to put his spin on events without anybody really managing to burst his bubble.
235. His real name is Gideon George Oliver Osborne. He just uses his first middle name.
It would be better if he were Gideon Oliver George Osborne, and then we could call him “GOGO”.
241. Interesting differance emerging between the Tories and Labour. If Brown goes for an election next spring, this could be *THE* key battleground (assuming Brown doesn’t decide to hold the election on the mad idea of joining the euro
)
Presumably that’s why North Korea kidnapped all those innocent Japanese, then (many of whom subsequently died in circumstances that were unclear at best, suspicious at worst) — to introduce them to the glories of Socialism.
You and Palmer need to get your own private room…
237. James, our *public* debt is low in comparison to the other G7 nations. Granted, consumer debt has been allowed to spiral.
The problem with that Live 5 interview with Alan Duncan was that the interviewer wanted to maintain the narrative of the Saviour of the World but didn’t understand the link between businesses and jobs, jobs and the ability to pay the mortgage.
Staggeringly incompetent interviewing, though - worse than the bias of Naughtie and co.
At lunchtime IDS was on Sky talking about the lack of understanding people have about personal debt, interest charges, and the consequences.
I am beginning to wonder if one problem is that many in the media are young enough to have suffered the sort of pathetic education which Sky was reporting on and IDS commenting on.
They don’t understand it so grasp passing informational flotsam and jetsam as a result, repeating the four legs good mantra as a substitute for real thought and real understanding- and is that why the PoD and friends can have such influence, perhaps?
Duncan’s line to the interviewer followed the same thought. Your question is ridiculous, do you want me to say it all again? She said ‘yes’ and he obliged only for her to complain Duncan was not telling her when the crisis would be over because ‘people will want to know when the Tories will want the nationalised banking to end and paying the mortgage will be easier’.
Shades of the nanny state: cling to nanny and all will be well.Ah, never mind you were irresponsible like Nanny, Nanny will make it all better now.It won’t hurt, Nanny promises. Nanny will make the nasty bank go away.
Is this why the SoW has increased positives. A mixture of dependency culture, ignorance and the ostrich tendency.
If so the damage Labour have done to the nation is well beyond financial meltdown.
A very useful page summarising US early voting, state by state betters would be well served by looking at who may have already voted.
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Minnesota Survey USA has Obama 50-44.
Pro-Obama spin: SUSA is the only pollster that has had McCain up in MN.
Pro-McCain spin: This is better than most recent polls.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e97fbca6-1c5d-4132-b7b6-2e13d2c16a80
re 233. You are so seriously wrong on Osborne. Underestimate him at your peril. He is by far the sharpest political strategist in UK today and his ability to put forward policy proposals in a clear simple form that worries the hell out of Labour is testament to his expertise. Look at the IHT move last year or the council tax this year. Look at the way he made Brown’s character an issue.
He is so much the designer of the Cameron project that he can have any job he wants and I know that is the one that Labour strategists most fear.
254. The reason he probably hasn’t officially dropped the Gideon is that then he would be simply called Goo.
250 - If you ever feel the urge to yell “I feel good” next time that Gordon Brown appears on TV, do let me know. You might yet be the first.
250 That you are also “JC”, perhaps? He insisted on using “Gideon” as an expletive too.
On the other hand, James “Sex Machine” Brown is a humorous notion….
To be fair though, we’ve always known how good Ken Clarke is and expecting George Osborne to be up there with Ken Clarke is unrealisitc. Nobody on the Labour benches can match Ken either.
I don’t understand that people think a Labour bounce, no matter what its scale, is solely down to Brown being all over the news.
People have mentioned to me that Cameron and Osborne have also been all over the news, just not saying anything of substance.
Cable talks specifics and Brown and Darling have to.
Cameron may have exposed himself as shallow again.
266, you think Cameron and Osborne have had comparable, yet alone equal, media time to Brown in the last few weeks?
Shallow… like a salesman?
Give my regards to Mister Draper.
re 259. I’ve put up a link to that key site in our links bar on the right.
261 Absolutely true. He is the only man who ever contained Brown at the Treasury.
261. I’m not contesting the fact that he’s a bright bloke. It’s his presentation that I think turns people off. He simply does not come across as authoratitive.
261. I agree. Osborne is the Mandy of operation Cameron. Loathed and feared in equal measure. The differance is that Ozzie actually has a realostic chance of taking over from Cameron as PM or opposition leader at some point in the future, where-as Mandy never did because he was just such an awful person.
266. Cable talking specifics doesn’t seem to have done much for his party’s standing.
benbobjim if Osborne came across as ‘authoritative’ would you be the first or the second to say he was a bossy snob?
266 Cameron and Osborne have been in the news - since Friday. But even then, less than Labour.
These polls were done before.
224.”207 - It has nothing to do with it, just pointing out the way in which very bad figures were spun on BBC. Stating this could well be the new line of attack. I have no idea what the hopeless Gideon will do next, I don’t think he does until he is briefed.”
He is known as George Osborne, and you tend to find that the only people who refer to him as Gideon do so as some form of implied insult.
261 To be fair, Mike, although what you say is true, it is also the case that Osborne doesn’t always come over very well in interviews. He does seem quite nervous. But having Cameron as the key presenter/persuader and Osborne working on strategy is a strong combination, in my view.
261. Mike. Do you think Osborne is certain to be Chancellor if the Tories form a government after the next General Election?
And Cable’s only solution to every problem is spending more taxpayers money or putting more of it at risk.
Why do we need him when we have real experts at boom and bust in Downing Street already?
Its too soon to judge yet, but the last three weeks may have further solidified the view in the publics mind,that Cameron is shallow.
261. both the council tax freeze and the fuel price stabiliser are economically illiterate policies that do not add up.
the IHT one is politically illiterate because it ostensibly benefits the few not the many.
he has his good moments but is hugely overrated and has been badly shown up now his brief is under the spotlight.
261 - I don’t buy this Osbourne is a super sharp guy. He wasn’t exactly snapped up out of university for a big job, by his own admission he fell into working for the Tories as he didn’t have a lot else going on. In comparison a lot of the mutters you hear from Cameron’s time at Oxford is that he is a sharp cookie (regardless of political opinions). If I remember rightly he got a 1st.
Further, I think that he was very slow to realize the impact of the 10p Tax issue. I remember watching that budget and saying to me father who was watching it hold on Brown has just increased taxes on the poor. During his reply he went on and on about side issues. Next I think he was very slow on NR, in fact I’m not sure what his policy was in the end. He might have had one, but it was clear and concise. Now I think he seems out of his depth on how to counter the claim that Brown is saving of the global financial system.
Actually as we speak now,Cameron is proposing a tax package worth …..£225 Milion…Million.
Is he joking?
226. Keynes would also advocate paying the whole darn lot in the boom time. We had 40 billion deficet debt at the darn top of the economic cycle, when we should have been paying it back.
stjohn Osborne will be Chancellor without a doubt in Cameron’s government.
But he will not be there for ten years as the Brown lesson has to be learnt. In the second Cameron term he will move on to something else.
279.
Pathetic!
Shallow = Putting the country first!
Brown = Putting the Labour party first!
279. Why exactly? No poll before or during has said that? it’s just another Labour spin line they keep repeating, one which has failed so far and will continue to do so.
270
Authoratitive Chancellors are like Lawson or Ian McLeod who screwed up big time?
273. I think I’m a fair minded poster: I actually think Cameron can do authoratitive rather well and I also don’t buy this Brown’s Back nonsense. I would therefore only say Goo came across as a bossy snob if that is indeed how he came across.
Witan. Osborne is 15/8 to be next Chancellor with Paddy Power last time I looked. I think this is cracking value.
275 - It wasn’t meant as an insult, just mixing it up so to say. I personally don’t care what somebody is called, much more interested in what they have to say. If I was going to insult somebody I would just say it.
258.”Duncan’s line to the interviewer followed the same thought. Your question is ridiculous, do you want me to say it all again? She said ‘yes’ and he obliged only for her to complain Duncan was not telling her when the crisis would be over because ‘people will want to know when the Tories will want the nationalised banking to end and paying the mortgage will be easier’
IDS referred to the huge amount of debt the government had saddled us with at the end of the interview, and Anna Botting came back with “you couldn’t help yourself, could you”!
Fair comment to make when discussing debt on the day that the latest borrowing figures have come out.
261.”He is so much the designer of the Cameron project that he can have any job he wants and I know that is the one that Labour strategists most fear.”
Hence the fact that Labour are going after Osborne rather than Cameron at the moment, plus its personal as well between him and Brown.
276 I’d agree with that, except right wingers within the party often do like Osborne. Alot. Internally he provides balance whilst Cameron courts the Guardian.
But they are loyal to each other. Osborne’s friends are honest enough to tell him he comes across as a bit snooty in person. If he is as good a strategist as I think he is, he will know his limitations and recognise the Cameron’s strenghts. That’s why he backed Cameron for leader and what makes the difference between his situation and that of Brown.
281 Oracle Osborne did not reply to Brown’s last budget, Cameron did. Osborne has the text messages out about it being a tax con before Cameron sat down and then went out onto the green to give the message to the press. The next day a Tory rally - coverage is still available on line - repeated the message and included footage of the initial interview.
Now as you are so wrong on so many counts, and you are so consistent in attacking Osborne, I must assume someone gave you a mission.
280. IHT, so that is why Brown had a big chesire grin when he got Darling to announce a poor imitation of it?
Ed, the only econmic illiterate on here is you! You have no idea and even accuse people with professional qualifications in debt management of not knowing thier stuff i.e. Student Loans.
282. That will actually have more impact on peoples jobs than some of the ridiculous big budget spening Darling mentioned over the weekend. The problem is protecting jobs and companies now - Your political and economic immuturity knows no bounds. It is Pathetic to attack the Tories for wanting to save jobs in the most fragile companies! We now see Labour wants to run a centralised command economy with no small employers?
281.Not being very subtle again..
289 stjohn the only risks are accident or disgrace or, unlikely, not winning an election.
If you don’t have to tie real money up for a couple of years, it seems good.
294. so you think it was good because Brown and Darling supported it do you?
i prefer to tell it like it is.
Unconfirmed Rasmussen tracker - M-46/O-50. M+1/O-1 from yesterday.
Ann Widdecombe upset about the Scouts giving sex education advice
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/10/20/ging-gang-goolies-115875-20820789/
Hmmm do you get a badge, wonder what the design is like?
280 The council tax proposal and the fuel duty stabiliser are NOT economically illiterate. If you think they are why don’t you explain why in economic terms?
People can be coached to become a better public performer. Margaret Thatcher herself modified (noticeably) her speaking performances.
Re Mirror poll - isn’t it more simple than some people want to believe? Data collected Weds to Fri, therefore completed late pm Fri. Friday edition deadlines are always very early, and Saturday is not a newsy day. No paper Sunday. First chance to publish, Monday! Some conspiracy
re 277 StJohn - Osborne will pick the cabinet with Cameron and will choose his own role. I think it could be chancellor but who knows.
In 2005, remember, Michael Howard wanted Osborne as his successor - not Cameron.
Re Osborne, if he’s that good on strategy why can’t they have him as party chairman or something? And let him work with the Shadow Chancellor in a backroom.
There’s no question he irritates some people, and he is a bit squeaky voiced, and I don’t see the political advantage in having him in such a high-profile position - if he annoys people and seems lightweight.
No-one’s asking for him to be sacked, just used in a cleverer way. New Labour weren’t stupid enough to make Peter Mandelson Chancellor, they knew he was bad box office.
In the meantime Bring Back David Davis, for God’s sake. Smart, tough, honourable, a great Commons operator with an excellently working class backstory - he should be Chancellor or Home Secretary.
Having him languish on the backbenches is a waste of talent. Grieve is OK but he’s yet another mildly unconvincing posho.
Bring Back Davis!
297. No the Brown/ Darling budget announcement was a load of garbage. Look up “deed of variation” and you will understand that is one way of getting the same result on the existing rules prior to the announcement. The public is on the TOries side on IHT, it is why Darling/ Brown tried to steal the Tories thunder.
You don’t tell it how it is ED because you have no idea! If you posted back around the time of the Budget announcement then you probably said it was a good thing!!!
@299:
Hahahaha!
‘young men should not indulge any “primitive sexual urges”, instead putting their energies into “hiking” and other “manly activities”.’
Mmmm, manly activities. Excuse me, now I’m gonna have to wash my parts in cold water.
304. Great post. And right twice with Grieve: utterly useless.
302
I would have thought that they would have tried for the Sunday Mirror.
297 - For something to be politically illiterate, I would have thought it would have had to have received an adverse public reaction. Maybe I’m holding the opinion polls from last September/October upside down, but I could have sworn that the Tories had a very substantial jump in support after the inheritance tax policy was announced.
296 Sally - It will be interesting to see how Osborne develops. If he is ever to be party leader and PM, he’ll need to get better at heading off awkward questions and reacting more spontaneously in interviews. At present, he give the impression of trying too hard not to make gaffes (not a bad thing in a Chancellor, of course). Cameron, by contrast, seems to have an incredible talent for avoiding gaffes whilst sounding totally relaxed, friendly, and natural. Blair has the same talent, as does Ken Clarke. I’m sure Osborne will improve his media performance with experience, but I suspect he’ll never be one of the greats in this area. Gordon Brown, of course, is a disaster in this respect.
@304:
There’s something profoundly wrong about Dominic Grieve’s narrow face and barely-human greasy hair partings. I’d like to have some forewarning whenever he’s on the news so I can rush screaming out of the room, gripped with a primordial terror.
241. Interesting, hadn’t seen this. I quote
“David Cameron came out firmly against any extra public spending financed by more borrowing. For the first time in this financial turmoil, there is now clear blue water between the two main parties.”
And I would guess that purely from a betting point of view (243) he’s got it wrong, because he’s got both the academic and common sense arguments against him.
In case any Dave seems badly briefed - there is flexibility in the VAT rules already to switch to cash accounting, which relieves cashflow problems. And if your turnover is below a certain figure you can elect to pay your VAT once a year. The cons may claim to be the party of small business, but they haven’t actually run small businesses - it shows.
Osbourne: We thought of bank bail-out package
311. A clear and prescient warning of the dangers of this strange, strange man.
[280] - The council tax policy is fantastic politics for a first term Tory government, and has negligible economic effect. Post a first term Tory government it does nothing to address the underlying problems with local council finance.
281 Osborne eats, sleeps and talks politics. So does his wife. Its a family obsession. Its his passion. Don’t believe it if you don’t want to.
@307:
Yes, except the obvious candidate to replace Gideon as Shadow Chancellor is Ken Clarke.
(It’s around about this point, our esteemed sex-memoirist will make disparaging remarks about my shirt.)
304 Seant. You are completely wrong about Davis. He would add, but he would also take away. I have tried to be subtle on this site. He’s down the road from me. The fact is that on this you should trust Cameron [and not Davis].
296 Witan - You’ve forgotten that one of the risks with this bet is Darling leaving before the next GE. Admittedly that looks less likely now than it did a few weeks ago after the Guardian interview when (ahem!) he was being criticised for saying that the economic outlook was bad. But if Brown were to resign before the election, it would be quite likely that his successor would replace Darling as part of a general reshuffle.
It may still be good value, of course.
The irony of the BBC.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/default.stm
The politics page headline story is “Cameron proposes 1p tax cut for firms”
Below Nick Robinson claims on his blog that “the Tories can no longer make the political weather”
Titter.
@318:
You’ve tried to be subtle? On here? Good Christ, why would you want to do something like that?
Haaa (just for cuddles) the campaign to replace Osborne with Redwood has begun, subtle and gentle, but unmistakable, and then who knows?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2008/10/20/john_redwood_bet_he_gets_promoted
McBean leads Labour on the economy. He’s the real chancellor. It has to be Cameron who fronts up on the economy for the Tories.
@320:
Good old Nick Robinson. Trying to make a huge career out of making as many rubbish predictions and analyses as possible before somebody realise he’s just been taking the piss all along.
300. price stabilisers have already been trialled extensively, see 20th century eastern european history for full details of the results.
@322:
I think we should let Redwood and Clarke mudwrestle for it.
310. It will be interesting to watch. I am not quite sure he sees himself as main man material. I think he knows he’s the sort who will have to prove himself first.
Can any Tory party members on here explain to me why Davis has NOT been brought back?
AFAIK he is pretty popular with voters, and activists, and with a lot of Tory MPs. He had a great Commons track record - of scalping Labour ministers. He has just the kind of impoverished background that the Tories need in their ministers right now - someone who can talk to poor people mano a mano - on their level.
Whatever Tories say, having posh millionaires like Cammo and Osborne saying “I feel your pain” is not necessarily that effective. Cammo can just about get away with it, cause he has charisma and a very ill son. The other ministers, hmmm…
So why hasn’t Davis been brought back? He’s been vindicated on 42 days. His stance on civil liberties was popular, and seen as honourable. Is the only reason he hasn’t returned because Cammo fears a rival?
If so, then that reflects badly on the Tory leader.
@328:
Cameron doesn’t trust him.
304 Grayling would make a good Home Sec.
259, 268 - if you take the 35.9% of Georgia’s early voters who are black, and use the (not unreasonable) Kos tracker % of blacks who will vote for Obama (95%), then Obama only needs to win 1 in 4 of the white votes in Georgia to win the state…. And also note that women are voting well ahead of men too - and in the same Kos tracker, women favour Obama by 55 to 36. So unless white men have not been voting early for some reason (disproportionate percentage of them vote on their way to/from work?), it would suggest McCain is in real big trouble in Georgia.
seanT@328: Not a team player?
322. Your obsession with Redwood reaches new heights.
304. LOL
The solution to the tories’ problems is to bring back quitter Davis.
A man who managed to garner LESS support for himself in a one-horse race, than he managed at the GE.
Battleground Tracker:
O 49, M 45 (unchanged)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102008_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
305. you are trying to have it both ways. the reality is that the policy is rubbish. it was rubbish when the LDs suggested it, it was rubbish when Con suggested it, it was rubbish when Lab brought it in, and once asset prices fall a bit it will also be outdated.
Rasmussen confirmed 50-46. So it seems we cannot find any instant Powell effect then, after Zogby suggested it might be one.
Battleground unchanged at 49-45. Tomorrow should be even closer, as a really good day for Obama is falling off.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102008_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
Seant. Can’t you read between the lines @ 318?
329
1. He is right not to.
2. He is not the only one.
Well, based on the polls, one can only conclude that the current economic disaster has provided a big boost to Labour. Given that, I would suggest that Brown devote all his efforts to finding a way to drive the UK into an unprecedented depression of epic proportions, which will see his ratings reach the stratosphere and finally give Labour a permanent majority.
A man who managed to garner LESS support for himself in a one-horse race, than he managed at the GE.
Doesn’t that just provide evidence for the Tory assertion that competition is good for results?
“A glimmer of hope for the City as Libor continues to fall”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1079100/A-glimmer-hope-City-Libor-continues-fall.html
If anyone’s a quitter, Gabble, it’s Jacqui Smith, pulling the 42-day legislation.
(Disappointed that Britain doesn’t have indefinite detention, are we?)
340 I am sure he is trying his best to do just that.
293 - Yes you are right that Cameron responded in the Commons on that day. I apologize for being incorrect. However, this is a key phase that struck me from the BBC website on the day “Later the Tories said the tax cut would be cancelled out by the abolition of the 10p rate of income tax.”
“would be cancelled out”, not worse off, just cancelled out.
My memory was incorrect regarding the individual providing the response, but I am sure at the time in the house Cameron didn’t have give a good way of cutting through the smoke and mirrors. I have also been disappointed by Osbourne’s replies to things like NR and the tractor production stats on other occasions. However my memory failed me on this particular case.
My criticism of politicians intellectual prowess is not limited to Osbourne. I don’t buy this Brown is a highly intelligent, economically savvy etc etc. He did a PhD in Labour Party History, and his Telegraph article on Sunday was full of poor grammar, long listing of causes/effects, and I would generally say that it was an essay at a level far below somebody with his supposed academic qualifications (and I should know I have the fun of undergrads and grads every day).
Furthermore, I always like to go by a simple saying that an old professor of mine said when I was an undergrad, those that are truly bright can explain incredibly complex theories in a way that a layman can understand.
O/T The current share price for HBOS is now more than 25% below the value of Lloyds TSB shares that an HBOS share holder will get if the deal goes through, up from about 15% on Friday. That level of discount suggests that the many in the City have doubts that the deal will go through as currently written.
It looks like there may be a battle brewing between the financial interests of LTSB shareholders in killing the deal and retaining independence and the political capital that Brown has invested in his “ownership” of the deal. Add in the SNP and Darling’s joint interest in protecting Edinburgh and it has the makings of an interesting few days.
@340:
Don’t knock it, it worked for Stalin.
318. I posted my latest Davis Rant before I read that. Not sure what you are insinuating. You are too subtle.
However I got the impression that Davis is a bit of a shagger. Is that what you are implying? If so, so what. Cook was a shagger. Mandy has Brazilian toyboys. I know for a fact that Shaun Wooodward actually has several diff… oh, stop me, stop me.
Martin Coxall: Ken Clarke is a bit crusty now. Even if he could be held to the flames of the junior common room fire, and made to recant his pro-euro views (essential step in any Tory Chancellor, for obvious reasons) I’m not sure he’d be that great. He just feels a tad retro.
Appointing Redwood as Shadow Chancellor would make your most recent shirt-purchase seem sensible.
328 seanT - I think the answer is quite simple. I think that Cameron believes he is too much of a maverick, an impression that would only have been confirmed by the resignation stunt. And also the press would always be trying to find or invent splits. Cameron, as I have posted before, is a very calculating politician (and that’s a good thing); he won’t want to take any risks of his message being muddied.
Also, in the party generally, Davis is certainly popular, but is viewed now with a certain degree of suspicion, mixed with admiration. His resignation was just such a strange thing for him to do. My guess is that he won’t ever be on the front-bench, but I hope Cameron can find a role for him.
Mike Smithson
You said a 9% lead for CON over LAB was bad news for the latter- now an 8% lead and it’s great news and all back on - I think you’re trying to justify your LAB seats buy by using whichever seat calculator looks the best for you. Just hold your hands up - the initial basis for your bet (as you partially admitted in the 9% lead thread) was wrong - although it may turn out that you win on this bet you should admit that the situation is NO CHANGE at present rather than trying to spin a 1% difference from terrible to terrific
334 “quitter Davis”
Davis was a man who quit over his principles. And how goes the battle for 42 days, eh Gabble? Could it be the “quitter” won the war?
337. Jan, on his notes Rasmussen says that Sunday’s polling was stable with the two days, yet how can this be if the race has tightened? My best guess is Thursday was a good day for Obama and has just dropped off the numbers. Too early to say if there’s a “Colin Climb” but my best guess is probably not: although I suspect Powell’s intervention may firm up some shaky Obama votes.
352. I’m betting on McCain now - this is going to the wire.
351. Better to quit on priniciple than quit by scandal, to be brought back, to quit under a scandal and then be brought back again from overseas!
only to…………….
@353:
It’s really not, you know.
Unless it’s a wire half a mile thick.
351. Marquee Mark “And how goes the battle for 42 days…”
Apparently, they’re going to bring forward emergency legislation as and when it’s needed.
Not a million miles away from my preferred option to judge the time of detention on the individual merits of each case.
348 ‘Personal’ history can come out to bite you, true.
Generally, IMHO any centerist party has its relunctant wing. The small group of hard old school tories have very close links with the old school hard left Labour. They have a common interest. It used to be in undermining Bliar. Now its in undermining Cameron.
On a completely seperate note, any former party chair always knows where the bodies are buried.
349. Well, if that’s all it is, I think Cameron is wrong. Every party needs mavericks - they shouldn’t necessarily be leaders - but honest, honourable, outspoken individuals are a GOOD thing in a Cabinet, shadow or otherwise.
I mean, as Martin Coxall says, look at Grieve. He’s just wrist-slittingly depressing. Another boring posh stiff awkward white man in a suit who makes Jacob Rees-Mogg look like Snoop Doggy Dog.
The Tories need more diverse faces on the front bench and if a couple of them go offmessage so F-ing what. New Labour managed to govern for ten years with Brown and Blair publicly trying to stab each other in the cornea.
347- Hey, who knows? Maybe Brown is indeed thinking ‘I gave them prosperity and they hated me, now I’m giving them disaster and they’re warming to me. I now see what I must do…’
I don’t see a huge amount of good news for Labour with this poll. The Tory shae is remaining at 40%+ during a time of limited news coverage. The Lib Dems always pick up share in the run up to an election and that’s likely to be a left leaning anti Government vote. I wouldn’t like to be buying Labour seats to be honest.
Hotline today 47-42, was 48-41.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/dailytracker/
It seems that the trackers have now settled in the 3-7 point interval, and whichever poll touches this outer bound then reverts towards mean. Research 2000 are expected to be a bit better for Obama and Zogby a bit worse, because of different party ID weighting.
If McCain really has turned the Corner, he should improve is Rasmussen Virgina numbers, due at 5 o’clock. Previous was Obama 50-47.
It would also be interesting to see a new non-tracking national poll.
325. Citations or concrete examples please - I tried googling but cant find anything using “price stabilis(z)er” “Eastern europe” and throwing in words like “tax” and “oil”.
The point in these types of questions is in the details.
As an economist I dont see anything particularly wrong in the price stabiliser idea, although it holds the seeds of problems the temptation to hold prices down - as a lot of developing countries do - being one. It would be useful for allowing a little more adjustment time and for smoothing out absurd peaks. But I am willing to look at any evidence.
(As for IHT, not all that equitable, but hardly absurd. In this case, it was politically popular.)
358. Another superb post. My tracker poll reveals that SeanT is poster of the day according to a clear majority of both Labour and Tory posters. He alos scores up on the honest/dishonest metric by 13pts.
308 Different titles, different staff, different budgets. No sharing (official!)
358 Yes, Sean, but you are forgetting that the election’s not won yet, and Cameron is not going to take any unnecessary risks.
As for Grieve, well, yes, perhaps not the most media-friendly member of the team. But on the other hand, he does actually know what he’s talking about.
358. Maybe Cameron is leaving his powder dry - keeping Davis in the hutch.
358 SeanT has ’stuff’ come out to bite them?
The government *already has* state-of-emergency legislation to extend the detention period!
Bet you’re pissed 42 days got so comprehensively shot down in the Lords, Gabble…
@365:
I think he’d be a bit less terrifying if somebody from CCHQ were to tie him down, degrease his hair, and force-feed him pies until he stops resembling a lard-smeared agent of the undead.
356. Couldn’t they do that already?
363 But a subsidiary question reveals that 73% of respondents agree with the statement “I am disappointed that seanT hasn’t insulted more people today.”
369
Possibly, but he does know what he is talking about. And he doesn’t look very ‘liberal’.
Cameron should move Grieve to Justice (he’s a QC) and bring back Davis.
361 - ABC/WaPO should be out later, last week was taken at a McCain low point and he was -10. Should be some improvement for him today given that he pulled it back after that in trackers.
369 - The pies wouldn’t help degrease the hair of course (this is knowledge derived from my own regimen).
Oracle if you believe the BBC reports cover all Tory comments then you are mistaken in your trust. The coverage of the rally the next day is better.
Some searching on the net will find the clip of the rally or demo I mentioned where Osborne is on Parliament Green as soon as he can decently leave the House, saying it is a tax con not a tax cut.
His team had gone through the red book they had been given only shortly before Brown stood up, and as Cameron rose to speak they, and the LibDems just before or about the same time, found the hidden details on the 10p tax cut, that it was a tax on the lower earners for the benefit of the rest and an opportunity for Brown to upstage the opposition - the best indication that he has no moral compass ever shown.
The LibDems denounced it slightly before George got to the cameras.
I think both opposition parties did very well to spot the tricks in the budget as soon as they did, because as sure as eggs is eggs, Brown was laying smoke in that presentation to build a picture for his final denouement: the tax con.
213 - mhhhh well, at least I know to avoid reading anything you post from now on.
373 NO NO He effing shouldn’t. You lot cannot spot more than one ball in the air at once. Thank goodness Cameron [and about 95% of its local Yorkshire activists can].
365. No he doesn’t. He advocated encouraging have a go heroes on the very day that a guy had died after taking one on. He’s another pillock the Tories would be well rid of.
Re: R5 interview of Alan Duncan by Shelagh Fogarty. Starts off well with Alan replying to her questions. Issue arises when she says that it is no time to ask local authorities to pay their bills on time when they don’t know whether their money is safe (Iceland). She says Cameron is therefore wrong to ask the local councils to do this.. At that Duncan starts to explode!
She later goes on to ask when people will know whether the bank bail has worked or not? Duncan says that is a crazy question.
375 A pork-pie hat shouldn’t actually be made from pork pies, you know….
http://www.dadshats.com/porkpie3.html
A female Shadow Chancellor might be a clever move by the Tories. Do they have any briffit up to the task? Spelman clearly can’t do the job.
Greening? Too young mebbes. And quite possibly daft. Any others?
the BBC is just laughable now. they can spin all they like - won’t work.
Dominic Greive is much better suited to Justice than Home. He was on TV while I was at my sisters this weekend and my nephew thought he looked like a geography teacher. He makes Jacqui Smith look able, which is a problem. Greive is a really brilliant man (his subject knowledge when he was a shadow health minister on mental health was superb) but he is not suited to the media age of a shadow cabinet post.
Cameron needs more senior women in cabinet - maybe he should consider moving Hague to Home and putting Theresa Villiers in for the Foreign Affairs brief. She’s done really well at Transport, has experience as an MEP and would show that we are inclusive by promotion to one of the three senior roles in Cabinet. Greive could then take over at Transport, or shift Nick Herbert to Transport and put Greive in at Justice where his razor sharp brain will be able to dissect the Government better.
379. Bring back John Redwood! He will set up the extermination camps & squads for lefties! Certainly he would get the trains running on time!
Bring back birching & hanging even the stocks too!
Yes, why not bring back the stocks - especially for the Cnuts who attack vulnerable old folk! The old folks could whip them, beat them with sticks!
Even tortcher them!
Indeed if we have firing squads the army could use for murderers and Peado’s for target practice!
National Polls are overrated in producing seat numbers. Even plugged through a seat calculator, if they were exactly right for a GE (and they never are this far out) they’d still be off by a good 10-20%. That’s a big margin of error. Labour’ll sink back down when the lagging figures (employment etc) come out.
282. Anne Widdocombe - she certainly has a lot of bottom!
You don’t need all the ministers to be shiny media types. A few boffin cliches and a few hardcase cliches is good.
Useful WSJ article which pretty much lays bare why you see US polls (particularly the trackers) veering off in different directions.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420151553142939.html
“”Pollster Scott Rasmussen, for example, weights current polls so that Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 39.3% to 33% margin, while pollster John Zogby adjusts polls so that Democrats account for around 38% of the electorate and Republicans, 36%. So even if a particular sample of calls shows different ratios, the pollsters adjust to fit that formula.
“What troubles me is when I see some of my colleagues have 27% of the respondents that are Republicans. That’s just not America, period,” says Mr. Zogby, whose polls have shown Sen. Obama with a lead ranging from two to six points this month. He argues that while party affiliation fluctuates over time, it doesn’t change “day-to-day, and it never fluctuates by eight points in a short time period.”
Some surveys suggest McCain has gained ground in recent days.
Other pollsters argue that polls should use whatever partisan mix results from a particular survey rather than arbitrarily establishing party affiliation weights. “How do you know that’s right? I mean, they’re making up numbers,” says Susan Pinkus, who conducts the Los Angeles Times-Bloomberg poll, which isn’t weighted. In this week’s poll, the respondents were 34% Democratic and 26% Republican.”
It’s the ‘making up numbers’ gibe which should concern those betting, we can see a clear Obama lead all over but that difference between pollsters could mean anything from a narrow win to a blowout. When there are state races and firewall betting and so on taking place then it’s a matter of where you put your faith.
371. I hope you noticed that in post 382 I referred to all women as “briffit” a traditional piece of fairly sexist vernacular. I thereby managed to insult, in an admittedly mild way, 50% of humanity.
Will that do?
384 Nick Herbert is doing a great job at Justice. He wont be moved anytime soon.
381 - It could be worse:
http://images.mirror.co.uk/upl/sm3/apr2008/2/8/47DB5407-E5F9-B6C8-ED6A57CB325EA94A.jpg
380. Alan Duncan is one of my least favourite politicians. I still remember him going on HIGNFY with Rory Bremner and trying to do impressions. It was horrific, I practically cheered when he was on QT and Harman got him on the Redwood report thing.
390 Excuse my ignorance - I just thought it was a typo.
390 isn’t it 51% - an even more spectacular achievement.
why are we looking at the lead and not the share of the vote - cammo above 40 is the key figure - if the tories start slipping to 37/38 I’ll get a bit concerned.
391 Hi Nick.
393. She didn’t though, she selectively quoted part of a report from the year before then claimed it meant something completely different.
258. I think you’re right. Duncan needs to take it on board that most people don’t understand basic things.
Instead of being sarcastic he should have hammered out that businesses going bust means people losing jobs means more home repossessions. That the same people worrying about their mortgages need to keep their jobs to pay them. That small business owners are some of those people who are worried about their jobs and houses. That most small businesses operate on tight margins. That small businesses represent a life’s work for some, or a family concern for others.
Above all, that it is not the case that business and people are two competing interests, that not all businessmen are pin-striped city types, that the interests of business are not different from the interest of people.
He needs to do this because people like Fogharty and those who listen to her show don’t get this. They have absorbed a number of soft-left prejudices over the years. He needs to grasp that people need these things spelled out, and Fogharty’s questions represented how many of her listeners would have thought.
396
LOL but I aint him, but he is my MP, and I track him thro the media and they work for you.com.
374 Drudge has started to publish the RCP average Obama lead on their top banner, and updating it serveral times a day. A shrinking lead over several days would mobilize conservatives. But since McCain is already down to 4.8 it will probably be difficult for him to bring it down below 4 during the week to come.
The RCP average is down more than the trackers, due to all the non-trackers with really bad McCain figures falling off, so McCain need to improve considerably in these to keep up the momentum on Drudge.
361. Jan, what do you make of my fellow Forest fan Marquee Mark’s analysis of early voting patterns in Georgia? Could this be a very decent value bet on the state by state markets?
389- This helps illustrate why you have to be careful in just running with the numbers, as opposed to first independently assessing the fundamentals of the race and proceeding thusly. The first great cautionary tale for me was 1996, when Clinton routinely polled overwhelming leads over Dole throughout the race, right up to election day. As it turned out, Clinton won an impressive 8 point victory. However, that was only half of what many of the pollsters were predicting right up to the end. In fact, that was the race in which Zogby made his reputation, as he was the only major pollster that didn’t significantly overstate Clinton’s margin of victory.
393.”380. Alan Duncan is one of my least favourite politicians.”
There is a Hunky Dunky appreciation society on this site with HQ’s in Scotland and Italy!
384. That’s mental. Theresa Villiers has not particularly achieved anything at Transport and it can be argued has been overpromoted to reach her present position.
The truth is none of the Tory Shadow ministers are up to taking on the top positions. I have high hopes that Justine Greening will carry on her improvement and I’m sure we will have some able women being elected at the next election. I would rather see competentcy rather than gender being the reason people are put in position.
In any case, there won’t be any great chance in the shadow cabinet before the election. Just a shame Davis did what he did but hey ho.
396 Sorry, that was childish. I agree, Nick Herbert is doing a serviceable job at Justice, especially against Jack Straw who I really like (only Labour cabinet member I do…) but I think Grieve would be better and that Hague would do some serious damage to Jacqui Smith as Shadow Home Secretary. Shuffling the pack might make them a bit tighter for the election, which I still think won’t be until 2010 whatever Nick P hints at.
395 I agree with you about the vote share. So long as the Conservatives remain above 40% I suspect they will win the GE, not least because of Smithsons Law (can’t remember which one) that the Conservative vote share increases proportionate to the media exposure of Cameron.
398.Osborne and Duncan are not what you call the most patient of interviewee’s when it comes to silly/confrontational questions. I like them both better when they turn the tables on the interveiwer.
That is why Osborne came out ahead with Paxman recently on Newsnight.
362. are you joking? hard to tell.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1976_protests
Sorry to go over old ground from three threads ago, but because of the blackout I didn’t get the chance to respond to SeanT’s reply to me on Scotland last night. I won’t go over the whole thing, but he demonstrated breathtaking ignorance by presenting as fact something that is the complete opposite of the truth -
“Moreover, every single poll that asks the direct and simple question: do you want Scotland to seperate from the UK, gets a No vote.”
Wrong. Quite simply wrong. Or to put it as SeanT himself probably would - hopelessly, pathetically, cringe-makingly, creepily, delusionally WRONG. As in the opposite of right. You got it wrong, buddy.
As anyone who follows Scottish politics at all could tell you, support for independence is always higher when the straight choice is put (as opposed to a multi-option choice). There have also been umpteen occasions - going back to at least the 1990s - when such straight-choice polls have shown the Yes side ahead.
397. I know she didn’t actually get him. But at the time it looked like she had briefly, and it shut him up.
Cameron chooses his battleground
“On The Today Programme this morning, David Cameron came out firmly against any extra public spending financed by more borrowing. For the first time in this financial turmoil, there is now clear blue water between the two main parties. Cameron argued that such a move would only prevent the Bank of England from reducing interest rates—which he seems to regard as the most important step that can be taken at the moment—and lead people to believe that taxes will rise in time.
Labour, I suspect, will not be displeased by Cameron’s opposition; they will see this as an opportunity to fight another Labour investment versus Tory cuts campaign. The challenge for the Tories is to communicate that such a spending programme will not be free.
Cameron’s performance this morning was, perhaps, his best since the crisis began. Although the Tory policies of a VAT holiday for small and medium sized business and a 1p cut in National Insurance for the smallest forms seem insufficient to the crisis, Cameron was persuasive in linking Britain’s lack of options right now to Brown’s economic management over the last decade. He also sounded more confident discussing the economy than usual, for a former Treasury SPAD and PPE graduate he often sounds oddly hesitant on the subject.”
I think that this Labour government are miscalculating just how aware the electorate has become to the sheer levels of public debt, and the fact that a spend our way out of an economy policy will just add further to it.
Hearing the Government borrowing figure today, and the way its been highlighted as the worst in 60 years does hit home harder when you consider that the government had the most benign economic conditions in my living memory.
408. No. I said “when people are asked the direct and simple question: do you want Scotland to seperate from the UK” and I meant WITH THAT WORDING.
If you can find me a poll that uses that specific wording and gets a Yes vote then I will buy you a SEVEN FOOT LONG mango jellybaby. Not unless.
So its you that are wrong. Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. You are the warlord of Wrong. You are the Slitty-eyed Emperor of the Wrong Dynasty. You are the newly appointed editor of I’m So F*cking Wrong Gazette. WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG. Yooooooo arrrrrr rrrrrrronnnnggggggggg.
In the Chinese Laundry of Incorrectness, you are Mistah WONG! - and I claim my wonga.
410.That should have been recession rather than economy policy.
346
I expect LLOY to reject the deal IF - without it- they need no Governement cash.
Reason: no cash from Government means amongst other things they can pay dividends…
413. With RBS now up at 76p + what are the chances that the govt will not have a controlling stake ?
Housebuilders being hammered today - Taylor Wimpey close to sub 10p.
410 Its exactly the poltical line The Times and The Sun want him to take.
People may not realise the link between interest rates and borrowing, but they do realise that personally they cannot go on borrowing indefinately without it being a risk and without having to pay it back.
411. “No. I said “when people are asked the direct and simple question: do you want Scotland to seperate from the UK” and I meant WITH THAT WORDING.”
Ah, OK. Well, I’ll certainly concede that if we’re all going to live from now on in a world where SeanT gets to decide everything - including the precise wording of Scottish referendum questions - it is, on reflection, quite likely he’ll get the result he wants every time.
Sadly, we live in a much less perfect world than that.
@411:
That must be where Nick Robinson gets his reinforced support girdles and rubberised mattress protectors deep-cleansed.
O/t Eyesight warning - do not switch windows from reading a Politico article on a magenta background to Pb.com in light green!
402 - Then Zogby ruined his reputation by being nearly alone in showing polls giving a Kerry win.
416. By the way, when can we expect to see the SNP’s revised figures for an independent Scotland’s financial position, based on an oil price of around $70 a barrel - which is today’s rate?
Does this, ahem, ever-so-slightly differ from the previous calculations, which were based on an oil price of something north of $120 a barrel?
lol.
re 129 Nick P. Building more high speed rail links? Isn’t that precisely what Darling plans to do.
402- Here’s an amazing story of four wealthy New Yorkers who are being investigated by an Ohio prosecutor for apparently pooling their resources to become temporary Ohio residents for the sole purpose of casting votes for Obama:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10202008/news/politics/gotham_to_ohio_vote_scam_eyed_134392.htm
The best part is that one of them is a former New York Sun reporter! Once again, one has to observe that placing any faith whatsoever in the media to provide fair or honest coverage, as opposed to scantily-concealed leftist propaganda, is naive and reckless.
@416:
There will never be an Independent Scotland. You could try, but England would simply invade you, annex you, round you all up, and stick you down the shortbread mines, and use the money from the exported slave-shortbread market to fill the place with as many nuclear warheads as possible just to piss you off.
401 I would not put much emphasis on early voting details. Polls might be off by a few points, but when McCain leads by 6-7 points even at his national low point, I don’t think that can be overcome. Georgia has been one of the few states trending republican in recent elections.
So you need Obama to do better nationally than his 8 point max lead. If you believe his lead will widen again, Georgia might be a good bet, but I believe it will be even narrower than today.
Obama up 7 in latest New Hampshire poll by the “Concord Monitor” newspaper:
http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081020/BREAK/810200299/1030
402- Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while. The bigger point is that all of the major pollsters have major screw ups in their histories and strict reliance on polls to predict outcomes is a lazy and often ineffective way to predict what will actually happen.
It’s no longer a 64 million dollar question it’s a 64 billion dollar question according to David Cameron.
422 - And then of course there is this -
“Republican Voter Registration Chief Arrested for Fraud in California”
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/20/republican-voter-registration-chief-arrested-fraud-california/
423. nationalism/jingoism aside, the current round of global economic and military action would suggest that staying clubbed together gives more safety than breaking away to form smaller, less diversified, more vulnerable nations.
424 - Bush led in early voting in 2000 and 2004 apparently.
“Nearly one in 10 voters in the US election have already cast ballots – and George Bush has taken a narrow early lead over Senator John Kerry, according to a poll out today.
Nine per cent of likely voters have already filled out ballots, with 51% backing the President for re-election and 47% supporting Mr Kerry, according to the ABC News survey.”
http://archives.tcm.ie/breakingnews/2004/10/27/story173113.asp
re 188 but is the lead doubled? It’s not beyond the bounds of statistical significance that it only increased from 10% to 14%.
@428:
Expecting a shock McCain win in California, are we?
420. I’m not Alex Salmond’s representative on Politicalbetting.com, I’m not even a member of the SNP - go and ask someone who knows the answer!
By the way, you’re a Tory, aren’t you? In which case, you must be able to tell me - will Cameron hold a retrospective referendum on the Lisbon Treaty if it’s already been ratified? And what will he do if he can’t find the numbers to set up a new group in the European Parliament - go back to the EPP with his tail between his legs? I have to warn you the Conservative party will lose all credibility if you personally do not provide full and satisfactory answers to these questions NOW!
419 Was Zogby really off in 2004? Not according to this:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
Maybe it was the interactive polls, but nobody takes them seriously.
#423
You might well be right. There are plenty of historians who have identified the massing of English troops just south of the Border in case the Scots parliament voted against the Union in 1707
424. Jan – it’s the huge numbers of early votes in Georgia that astounds me 600k+ out of an electorate of 3m +. Still, I’ll avoid it and if I take a firewall bet will go with Ohio. I simply cannot see that going Blue although it looks like Obama may squeeze home in FL.
376 - 1) No I don’t just take all that the BBC says, hence why I am on sites like this, but the vast population do hence I dug out that particular quote from the BBC take on that particular budget. My memory is still of a bit of a weak response from Cameron and yes I remember the Tax Con budget, but I don’t think (well you can tell by the polling) that it didn’t hit home with people until Frank Field went on the attack. So clearly Osbourne et al failed to get the message across clearly enough.
2) I still stand by what I see as some very poor responses from Osbourne on things like NR.
432 If that does happen, Martin, expect a Stewards’ Enquiry, tout de suite.
I’ve read the article on Cameron’s today appearence, it’s quite interesting. He’s become very good at making complicated problems and ideas sound simple, plus he uses language that encourages rather than depresses as Brown does. The line of ‘we could do more with a budget surplus’ could catch on, people will want to know where their money went in the good years as things get worse.
430. there must be a link between early voting and enthusiasm of support. it is not surprising to me that Obama has the more enthusiastic support - but that does not necessarily say anything about the overall election.
likewise in this country we know from a wealth of historical evidence that the Cons have the more motivated support (in terms of % likelihood to vote) and yet they “win some and lose some”.
Polls later (hat tip to Antmatic on 538)
“Noon - Rasmussen VA
1 PM - Gallup National
5 PM - ABC Wash Post National
6 PM - Rasmussen MO, NC, FL, OH, CO
Afternoon - IBD/TIPP National”
My guesses are that Rasmussen shows a tie in Florida, small leads for Obama in Colorado and Virginia and McCain leading in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri.
428- If that guy is really trying to swing California to McCain by fraudulently registering to vote from his boyhood home there, he should be committed to an insane asylum.
thata’s it - Brown seems very stale and no amount of the switch on- switch -off smile will help.
you feel hope when you hear cameron talk - he’s very personable / feels normal.
thata’s it - Brown seems very stale and no amount of the switch on- switch -off smile will help.
you feel hope when you hear cameron talk - he’s very personable / feels normal.
Zogby tracker apparently had Obama up by 10 in the Sunday sample.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YWVhNWUyMmFlZDE0ODEyYjM5ZjU1MGE5ZTU4MWYwODA=
Such daily blips are to be expected, and Zogby is the only one so far indicating a Powelll effect. Obama will probably have nice Zogby average numbers also tomorrow and Wednesday then.
437. the LDs spotted it on the day, the Cons didn’t. obviously the respective shadow chancellors are the ones tasked with providing “the line” on the fly for their leaders to parrot out [the opposite of what happens at no. 11 nowadays!].
436 Ben - I’m heavily green Obama and even I’m not expecting a Georgia win. Otoh, I don’t share your view of Ohio; I think it’s a probable Obama win, but close. Florida, as I’ve mentioned before, looks slightly better for That One.
Indiana would be my recommended firewall State.
434. I think it was that he called it Kerry on the night rather than that his last poll was wrong. Broke my heart. Looking at the RCP list, and running against what SaS says, the actual thing that surprises me is how close the polls were.
433. As pb regulars will attest, I am certainly not a member of the Tory party, indeed I have voted for other parties in the past.
I am just a freebooting member of the general eurosceptic capitalist Thatcherite patriotic militia, ready to grab my father’s rifle from the cupboard, when the smelly lefties come marching down the turnpike.
I am surprised McCain is at his longest odds on Betfair (8.2) when it seems that the race has narrowed in the last few days. Can anyone explain?
424 Jan, don’t discount the massive ad spend advantage which Obama will have in the final two weeks of the campaign - anything up to six to one. The final blitz is going to hurt McCain - including Obama’s half-hour TV buys. That is basically like a fourth debate but where McCain doesn’t turn up - and with Obama scripting the soft-ball questions!
448- Again, beware the blind squirrel phenomenon. I’m not saying the polls are always wrong, but rather than they can be and sometimes are way off. In 2004, most of the pollsters were in the ballpark. In 1996, most of the pollsters were way off. If you rely strictly on the polls, you’re taking a major risk unless you’ve analyzed the bigger picture and are comfortable with the polls in light of overarching factors.
441 UK Paul - For fun only….
I bet you it’s more like:
O - Small leads in Fla, Virginia, Colorado, NC & Missouri
McC - Small lead in Ohio.
447 PtP, still think it is going to be an epic blow-out. Arizona is the firewall for me….
449. You’ve voted for other parties? What other party could possibly provide a home for a “freebooting member of the general eurosceptic capitalist Thatcherite patriotic militia”?
Ah, I forgot. UKIP. Amazing how many Tories are prepared to go off to Brussels for a Farage-a-trois.
430. Those early voting figures in 2004 bascially match the final popular vote result. Certainly hope the same happens this year…
434 - Remember “Zogby calls it for Kerry”?
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_22_56/ai_n13659409
He didn’t even have the guts to trust his own polling.
450 Clock running down, MikeL.
The debates are over, there’s little time left for an ‘October surprise’ and some States have already started voting.
All other things being equal, you would expect the favourite’s price to contract as the time to election day elapses.
457- Zogby is a Democrat at heart and ran with his emotions rather than the data in 2004.
454 I think you are wrong, Mark, but if you are not, I will happily buy you a pint or three.
re 356 Gabble, even emergency legislation has to be got through the House of Lords.
@454:
That’s what I went for as well. Only in the privacy and quiet of the polling booth will the American public truly have time to pause and reflect on how much they hate Republicans.
455. Indeed - UKIP. Wouldn’t vote for them now though.
I think I once voted Green as well, just for a lark. But it was during the 90s when I was largely stoned, so I might mis-remember.
I have also abstained several times, deliberately or otherwise.
450. Mike L - I think that some punters consider Colin Powell’s endorsement of Obama and the power of its delivery have given the McCain/Palin a “death blow”. We shall see the polls’ reaction to this during the next 3 days.
455. And I voted English Democrat, too. For that guy at the last London mayoral. 2nd preference. A fairly useless vote, seeing as I understand he actually stepped down before the election.
But still!
Cameron will start setting the agenda, and Labour have no answer. They’ve blown their case for economic competence with the worst public debt figures for 60 years after 15 years of growth. Does anyone really think this is an achievement to trumpet…
439.”I’ve read the article on Cameron’s today appearence, it’s quite interesting. He’s become very good at making complicated problems and ideas sound simple, plus he uses language that encourages rather than depresses as Brown does. The line of ‘we could do more with a budget surplus’ could catch on, people will want to know where their money went in the good years as things get worse.”
That was a point I made about his speeches during the week of the Tory Conference, he was doing what the government have singularly failed to throughout this present economic crisis. Explain it to the public!
At the moment the government are desperately pointing the finger at everyone else to try and absolve themselves of any responsibility for the last 11 years. They are going to try and carry on spending and increasing debt in the hope of buying their way out of the recession they spent their way into.
Madness really, the electorate largely ignored the politics when the economic climate was quite benign. I fully expect to see more people becoming engaged with the political process, and that leading to an increase in turnout at the next GE. If I were Labour I would start being a little bit more honest and a little less patronising.
462 - McCain is a more credible concept than Bob Dole and Dole managed to garner 159 ECV’s. I think that will probably be the floor for McCain really.
Can someone explain why Gordon has ducked out of Glenrothes and sent his wife? Will she take the kids?
469 - was just thinking the same thing. He has said he will campaign there himself, so he’s gone from following the supposed tradition of not campaigning in by-elections as the PM, to getting both himself and his wife campaigning in by-elections. Did someone say desperate?
469. Mirthios - she will if she has been studying Sarah Palin’s campaign.
450 There are a couple of reasons for McCain odds moving out at BF. The first is time. For every day without a clear shift towards him, his chances diminish. The other one is Powell. The shift came after his endorsement, and I believe European punters put to much weight on that endorsement.
457 You’re right. I had forgotten about his election night call.
469. Maybe he thinks it’s about time she earned her salary ?
442. …how is that any different to any other McCain voter?
New thread - Will Cameron get a speech poll boost?
458, 464. Fair enough. It just seems to me that:
1) It is tightening.
2) The magnitude of Obama’s lead (average 4.75% in the 4 trackers out so far today) is not that great.
3) Today’s trackers overall show no Obama boost from Powell endorsement.
4) The absence of debates in the remaining 2 weeks is good for McCain (Obama/Biden won all 4 debates which boosted / at least supported Obama’s ratings up to now).
468 He is infinitely more credible, James, but unfortunately for McC the circumstance are infinitely more difficult.
The Democrats could have put up the office cat this time and still had a good chance.
I hasten to add that Obama is a long way from being the house moggy.
469. Is that true? Is Gordon now NOT going to Glenrothes? If so, that’s a stupid error. He said he was going to go there personally - I think that was part of the new, bolder, courageous Gordon narrative. It was a sensible move.
Sending yr wife instead, cause you’re scared you might lose is… how shall we put it… not so impressive. It will reflect badly.
But maybe they are both going?
469.This Gordon Brown we are talking about! If its between showing a bit of leadership by publicly putting himself on the line politically vs hiding away from being openly associated with a real contest where the outcome is unknown or possible could be a defeat. Hmmm…..
460 I just think this might be a failure of polling on an epic scale.
Out of curiosity, is there any formal/informal gathering in London for the US election results?
447. I may take Indiana and Ohio.
468- On the famous list, I would guess North Carolina is the firewall/first McCain state (I have some confidence, but not total confidence, in this choice). Obama wins nationally, 52% to 46%. In line with your reasoning, McCain does better than Dole vis a vis the Democratic nominee, but not a lot better.
472. Jan - I wonder what percentage of those polled in the latest polls had actually seen and heard Powell’s endorsement before they were polled. I repeat I think the Powell effect will grow over the next few days.
480. Massive multi-screen CNN/Fox election party at Yates Wine Lodge – it was running ads on here I’m sure in recent days. It’s £35 but I think it’s free food and some free booze. No more deets I’m afraid!
480 Mark
There are numerous parties taking place, one organised by our own excellent Julian H.
Personally I shall be at Harry Macadam’s place, Elite Betting, sweating over a hot computer and trying to turn my valuable Election bets into even more valuable ones.
483. Very few – Sunday is a bad news day as the only thing Americans tend to be interested in on Sundays is sport. The endorsement was timed for the Monday papers. But I don’t expect a big “Colin Climb” just a firming up of the more shaky Obama votes.
Love the way this plan has morphed into “The Darling Plan” now.
Brown seeking to do another Macavity in the next few days?
44 Sean Been out most of day - just had a look at your reply! Have to say it didn’t surprise me, but that’s what I have said throughout this brief volley of posts. I am not actually predicting “the end of capitalism”, but the end of Thatcher - Reaganomics, which is rather different. If in fact you are not a devotee of this variety of capitalism you have made a good job of hiding it over the months!! What happened in Britain in the late 70s was just as much a variety of capitalism as this is. I am suggesting you apoloigise for the form of laissez faire which has been ongoing for the last 25 or so years, which HAS clearly failed, and of which you are so much a cheerleader. Describing me as a gonk etc, merely confirms my opinion that you haven’t yet caught on to the changes which are occurring in the world. It may appear arrogant, but a few of us had seen through it all along. That does not make us gonks, Marxists, or whatever your most recent insult is! I appreciate it is probably not comfortable for you to see that this received wisdom in right wing circles has been misguided all along.
“No economic system, in the history of humanity, has a record of producing wealth and freedom like capitalism.” If by this you refer to Thatcher - Reaganomics, all I can do is turn your insult on yourself, and say, sean, you’re talking out of your butt, mate.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/article48263.ece
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/article48200.ece
has anyone noticed how unlikely the comments are on the NOTW website - almost like they were made up just to make the website seem busy????
Cant say I’m surprised. It’s easy to see how Mike’s judgement has been influenced by the Cameron hero-worship that infects this site. The general public however can spot a charlatan when they see one and don’t face the daily brainwashing suffered by readers here.
I reported on here my lunch with some advertising friends which convinced me the gap would narrow. There’s always a lag which should show the parties close the gap in the next month or two. That coupled with the Mandy/Campbell effect and I believe there’s every reason for optimism
The futures bright. The futures Brown.
487. Love the way this plan has morphed into “The Darling Plan” now.
If things get much worse, it will soon morph into “The Tory Plan”
420. Sean, the oil is just our pocket money , just means a few less trinkets.