Is it worth a spread bet on Electoral College Votes?
October 10th, 2008
Is now the time to try this form of betting?
With an Obama victory looking more and more certain the focus is moving away from who’ll be the next President to how many electoral college votes the two contenders will win.
An interesting way to bet on this is through the spread markets. Here you “buy and sell” electoral college votes as though they were stocks and shares and the more you are right with your forecast the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose.
All three main spread firms have markets running and I’ll be featuring their prices at least every other day until the election is resolved. To become President a contender has to get more than 269 electoral college votes - check with this Wikipedia page for an excellent explanation of how the system all works.
In betting terms if you bought Obama at 336 ECVs at, say, £25 a point, and he ends up with 366 then your winnings would be [The actual total won] minus [the level you bought at] multiplied by [your stake level]. So in this case you would get 30 * £25 = £750. Losses are calculated in the same way.
One other feature is that you can close down your position at any time taking your profit or restricting your loss. Thus currently I hold two contracts - a buy for Obama at 308 ECVs and a sell for McCain at 342 242. So I am amply in profit with both bets and could cash them in if I wanted. I’m staying in there.
The main difference between Spreadfair and the other two firms is that the former is a betting exchange. With the latter the firms fix the prices at regular intervals in response to market moves.
Disclosure note: PB has a relationship with SportingIndex under which commissions are paid for each account opened. This helps towards the cost of running the site. Please use the link.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
You sold McCain for 342?
Surely not first again?
2. Damn, no
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 45% .. Obama 51.5% .. Others 3.5%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 143 .. Obama 287 .. Toss Up 107
Changes Since Last Projection - Nil.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 162 .. Obama 376
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America.
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
If Brown’s so brilliant, why aren’t the markets convinced?
You people vote for leaders who crack jokes about the most serious of matters — Brown and recession, Bush and WMD — if you want to.
1..242 methinks!
Looks like Obama has won imo.
McCain camp is in total chaos, imo, they are even worse that the Hillary campaign. The problem is they are not inspiring confidence in management of the economy.
Afternoon all
Just been watching the Fox News morning show. No longer any attempt to be even-handed with constant snide attacks on Obama’s “character” from a series of panellists connected to the GOP, RNC or the American conservative establishment.
The tone is very much one of desperation on the McCain side. On the EVs, I thought 355-183 was as good as it could get for Obama (on the basis of a 52-47 win). If, hoever, we’re looking more at 54-43 or similar, that could be an understimate.
A McCain sell at 226 looks a reasonable proposition.
7 - it’s now a case of how many by, not if Obama wins
Posted this on Dale’s site, wonder if it’s not such an idle thought :
Idle thought : McCain picked Palin as a final FU to the GOP wingnut wing who cost him 2000 and almost made him join the Kerry ticket in 2004.
Palin will now be the poster girl of the fundamentalist sect. She presses all the right buttons.
She’ll be lauded and revered by the likes of Coulter, Hannity and Limbaugh. Any mistakes made won’t be her fault.
And she’s proved to be totally unelectable. So the GOP are effectively stuck with her, although they don’t know it yet.
This could be a painful few years for the Reps, and the worst hasn’t even started
In reply to the last thread’s sociopath comments:
I dislike that term. A social illness is a stupid definition, I think, and I much prefer psychopath, which affects around 1 in 400 in the UK, predominantly men.
Brown isn’t a psychopath. He doesn’t have the charm, the easy people skills. He does have a vast sense of his own importance though.
Back to credit crunch stuff. Not withstanding the price reductions coming thro’ in oil and others, will the attempts to flood the market with money bring us an inflationary bubble 2 years down track.
Its what happenmed after ‘87. I noticed Ken Clarke very cautious about interest rate cuts on TV two nights ago
4 - No changes? Are you discounting the surprising West Virginia poll or is it already factored in?
There’s still great value to be had betting on individual states if you don’t want the risk of spreadbetting. Just check William Hill each morning, I think each of the last 4 days there were crazy prices (today Democrats 1.66 Nevada and 1.57 Virginia)
A lot depends upon how you thingk Troopergate is going to play out. Could be the final factor guaranteeing an Obama landslide - or may amount to nothing at ll. Still either way she must be one of the most disastrous VP picks of all time.
The Financial crises and the political turbulence ensuing could see this as a fin de siecle period. I hope I am wrong, but as Fangorn said,”Time are changing, I can smell it in the air, I can taste it in the water, and the earth tells me so”.
by weathercock October 9th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
I wrote the above yesterday. Chris(from Bethesda) said the quote was from Galadriel not Fangorn. I looked it up in LOTR and found that I was correct. So there!!!!!!
The fin de siecle remnark looks all to realistic to me though.
by weathercock October 10th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
7. I am a Macca backer (but Obama supporter) now desperately looking to hedge, so might take some sort of bet on ECVs.
For me, the key thing is this early voting lark – many states have open their polls so one has to assume that these big poll leads that Obama is currently enjoying are being converted into real votes (unless the US public are lying to pollsters on a massive scale).
I’m sure I read somewhere that 20+ per cent of all votes will have been cast by this time next week. If so, it’s looking very bleak for the McCain ticket – and my bets.
And where is Gordon Brown as the stock markets crash? Not in a school this time no “Downing Street has just announced that he is off to spend the afternoon at the Cheltenham Literary Festival.” (source Rosa Prince, 3 Line Whip)
I’m not sure there is much value in buying Obama at those prices. I can’t see him getting much more than 350 EVs and, if the race tightens (historically this is likely), his spreads can only come down.
I’ll pass.
14- Landslide? Not sure. We’re not talking Reagan or Nixon landslides.
Minnesota seems very very close…Probably the only swing state thats still close, except Ohio and Missouri imo.
14 - if Troopergate does anything, then it will just reinforce her lack of electability.
Like many, I really did think she would be a gamechanger for McCain’s advantage, and had she sounded a bit more intelligent she would have been. Especially as she looked so foxy at the VP debate
Wonder how McCain would have done with either Crist, Romney, Pawlenty or even Joe Lieberman as VP?
11. Given the scale of the debt mountain I was assuming that in the end it would need to be inflated away.
Will Palin do a playboy shoot if she loses ?
12 James. I’ve factored the ARG WV poll in but it carries little weight in ARSE (BUTT) projections. We’ll need further polling to tip the state into Obama’s column.
12. Let’s hope not: It’s ARG - the worst and most random pollster of the bunch.
22 - hope so
What’s Dow Futures saying will happen when Wall St open at half two?
26 - So far down about 240 points!
26 - IG Index has the Dow down 330
http://www.igindex.co.uk/
25. I think I am the only man in the world that doesn’t find this woman attractive. I’d much rather go for Michelle – or even Hillary!
Jack W, Mike Smithson, other soothsayers: Can someone please explain the extent of early voting. I’m sure I read huge numbers, in which case Macca is surely f—–d.
ot.
How insane is Gordo? He is now pretending to be responsible for the drop in world oil prices yet all the other problems have been caused ANother - especially Iceland. I have never been so ashamed of a British PM in my lifetime. He is an absolute disgrace.
29 - she may not be everyone’s cup of PG Tips, but Hillary?
32. Bit of a stretch I’ll admit. Michelle is totally hot however.
How is Iceland playing in the country? Do core Labour supporters like bashing foreigners?
It would be ironic if Russia uses this and the need to secure the billions it has just loaned to Iceland as a pretext to seize BP’s half of TNK-BP.
31, hey, Iceland’s part of the Axis of Evil now! Poor banking practices = blowing people up, apparently.
Sadly this means we now have to invade ourselves.
29. Hilary!! You must be mad
31. He’s talking as if OPEC will take notice of him. Madness.
27 and 28. No relief there then.
30: Ohio early voting was a bit underwhelming, apparently. Highly disproportionately black turnout in Georgia would be the main news there, I guess.
29: I thought it was just me… Agree with you on Palin and Michelle Obama, but I’m afraid I can’t agree with you on Hillary. Cindy McCain, on the other hand…
33 - Michelle is nice, though still prefer Palin
Thankfully Hillary wasn’t on the Obama ticket - she’s be coveting Barack’s presidency while Bill would be coveting Michelle.
USA — I’ve a green book so win on Obama and McCain. What puts me off wading deeper into Obama are doubts about whether the often-unreliable American pollsters have got their weightings right. We saw as recently as the Democrat primaries the pollsters having to adjust to catch up with both Obama and Clinton demographics.
Dow doing a holding pattern at lows. Likely to crash and burn…
“I think I am the only man in the world that doesn’t find this woman attractive.”
Unless you agree with Palin’s views there’s no reason to find her attractive. To think otherwise would be like defending ‘Triumph of the Will’ on the grounds that it has impressive cinematography.
Am I misreading this or is there not an arbitrage opportunity to buy McCain at 208 with IG Index and sell at 226 with Sporting Index for a guaranteed 18xbet win?
42 - put it this way - give me an hour with her and she’ll become an athiest
FTSE at 3962. So what is next week’s plan to give away the next £400bn?
Brown ‘psychologically insecure’
38/39: The Hillary thing was a sort of either/or thing regarding Palin, you know, if at gunpoint, not a desire. Michelle however… yum yum, yes please.
Agreed about Bill – he’d have Rovian hands !
McCain was never 342 to sell, I can only assume the author meant 242. And the Sporting index McCain prices are incorrect. So no arbitrage opportunity.
44. Arf arf!
46, I saw that, was very interesting how she described Brown’s Mandelson decision as virtually self-mutilation.
The body language expert on The Daily Politics said Gordon’s a deeply insecure man who has a need to be liked; thats why he is addicted to spending money whether he has it or not.
No wonder he looks happy.
He has never before spent as much - despite great effort on his part.
He now thinks we love him.
[Oh, not looking good on the tough choices front.]
15- Weathercock
Indeed you’re right.
My only defense is that they gave this quote to Galadriel in the movie…
46 You beat me to it!
42- Your view presumes that you see everything in a pure love/hate context. Some of us see that most things have both positive and negative aspects and can appreciate both. For example, I always appreciated Bill Clinton’s tremendous qualities as a politician, public speaker, and general charmer, even though I never trusted or liked him, let alone his politics.
You know what - I don’t really care that Gordo is mad. Its the incompetence and the lying that hurt the nation.
53. Yes but the key question for you SaS is: Michelle Obama, yes or no?
IG index have wall street at 822 (-460)
FTSE now down more than 400…
Back on topic. I just had a play with the RCP electoral map calculator.
There are 8 Toss-Up states and I’ve allocated them based on recent polls plus a bit of gut feel:
Colorado (Obama)
Nevada (Obama)
Ohio (Obama)
Florida (Obama)
Missouri (McCain)
Indiana (McCain)
West Virginia (MCain)
North Carolina I’m really not sure about. Should be McCain but polls are saying Obama.
If I give Obama North Carolina then it comes out as 353 for Obama and 185 for McCain
If I give McCain North Carolina then it comes out as 338 for Obama and 200 for McCain
There is not a huge amount of upside there on the spreads and a fair risk if McCain strengthens over the coming weeks. Ohio and Florida could come back to McCain if he closes the gap by even a couple of points.
So if you think Obama is strong enough to carry most of these Toss-Up states (and also add some surprises like Georgia and possibly Texas) then go for it.
I think Obama will win but my expectation is that it will be closer than the polls are indicating now.
55- Is that a key question? LOL (and I never use LOL, so consider yourself blessed).
Okay, I’ll play your game. I would rate Michelle Obama around a 5 or 6.
46 - What a waste of licence-payers’ money.
56 - I reckon it could fall off of a very big cliff. It may well be a relatively good thing in that it could be seen as cathartic!
53 Also the finest liar in the White House since Nixon. His sayings are up there with Tricky Dicky’s there can be no white wash in the white house statement for classic status.
Con home calls Glenrothes for Labour !
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/10/glenrothes-and.html
http://stateoftheunion.wordpress.com/2008/10/09/behind-mccains-fall/
Further falls in the stock market are not good for McCain looking at this graph …
Using the latest 10,000 case simulation on http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ as the current best guess of the expected number of EVs and the risk i.e. spread of outturns, I reckon there is a 10% chance of BO getting around 250 EVs, a 40% chance of around 330 EVs, a 30% chance of around 380 EVs and a 20% chance of around 420 EVs. I got this is by spliting the distribution of cases into four small triangles and taking the centre of gravity of each triangle as the number of EVs and the area of each triangle as the probability. Hope you are with me so far.
So if you buy BO at 336, you have a 10% chance of losing 86, a 40% chance of losing 6, a 30% chance of gaining 44 and a 20% chance of gaining 84. This is obviously a gross simplification but better, I think, than a single number expectation as it gives some indication of the risk. Looks like a good value bet.
However it assumes the polls are a good indicator (ignores Bradley effect) and assumes no trend or gamechanger. Too risky for me. I’ll leave it to braver souls.
On topic: I’d like this bet, I think there’s money to be made. Spread betting scares me, there’s such a huge risk of a massive loss. I think I’m going to stick to a few individual close state bets, to give the election night a bit of risk and to make everyone look at me funny at the election party when I shout “COME ON NORTH CAROLINA!”.
Last thread and on this thread: I think most people have got over the fact that Brown’s a bit of a weirdo. Yes he’s smiling and happy in the face of one of the worst economic crisises to ever befall Britain but that’s sort of what I would expect from Gordon Brown, if he was behaving like a normal human being I would be very freaked out.
66, got over it? They may have become aware of it but that’s not the same as not caring.
And another thing… will Brown please do up his tie properly or take it off. The knot should cover the collar centre so we can’t see the hangman cloth around the neck.
It looks scruffy, sloppy and slapdash.
Please. It does not increase my confidence in people who dress like that, of any party or profession.
56
DOW 8200 is a key support level. It’s likely to fail in this selloff.
67. True. But I don’t think “GB acts like antisocial weirdo” will make the headlines tomorrow.
70, I concur. However, the joke about a failing bank will not stand the test of time well. And if a bank does fail…
69 - Do you think we will test 8000 in this session?
brent crude down 641.
“Your view presumes that you see everything in a pure love/hate context.”
No, only that I do not believe in decontextualizing aesthetics from morality. The director of ‘Triumph of the Will’ was undeniably an artist of rare talent, but the film’s beauty cannot excuse its propagandizing in favour of an ideology that was both anti-art (for totalitarianism of any kind is inimical to true art) and anti-humanity.
Or to put it another way: You can put lipstick on a pig, but…
70 It is making some chat show news today.
Worth a click.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/brown-thinks-he-is-the-fonz-200810101315/
63. I don’t think Labour will win Glenrothes. I think the markets and soon after the media are on to Gordon. He is not in the lead here.
70 The Daily Mash gets it just right on Gordon
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/brown-thinks-he-is-the-fonz-200810101315/
Last paragraph probably close to what the Tory posters on here think.
Also good on Iceland
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/war/councils-invested-%A31bn-in-tiny-volcano-surrounded-by-fish-200810101314/
FTSE down over 9%….
One thing Labour definitely won’t win is the 42-day detention vote in the Lords.
76 snap (would have beaten you to it except I added the Iceland bit!)
79 - Dow futures dropping like a stone!
If Glenrothes was today? Maybe Labour wins, even with their invisible candidate. But by polling day we have three weeks of context to current events, which I don’t expect to be kind to Labour.
HBOS down 25%, Lloyds down 5% Is something happening out there?
FTSE now down 400 points.
83, perhaps an opportunity to bet on the SNP then?
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 41% .. Obama 48%
Note - Yesterday - M-41/O-47.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/dailytracker/
84 Fear, panic & fear
Scanning quickly through today’s post, I was surprised to find that nobody had commented on the 12 point hike in SPIN’s prices for Obama’s EV count.
For ages now, SPIN has been lagging way behind the Intrade, RCP and other projections. It now stands at 330/336 and although I think Obama will go above this, most of the value has gone.
The trouble is that it’s hard to see him winning much above 375. Intrade projects 364. Indiana is likely to add another 11 EVs, which brings us within scratching distance of Jack’s BUTT [376].
Where then?
The next candidate States which may turn blue are Montana [3], North Dakota [3] and West Virginia - all long shots and slim pickings anyway. Georgia is better at 15 but still a long shot. Next stop is Texas with a stonking 34 EVs but even I, as an Obama supporter ever since Mike first touted him on this Site two years ago, cannot see the Lone Star State flipping.
So you see, you have a realistic chance of winning a maximum 40 or so points if everything goes well for Obama over the next four weeks. Otoh, if The October Surprise turns out to be more than hot air, or the tide suddenly turns for some other reason, you have a hell of a lot of downside exposure.
If you haven’t bought into Obama on the spreads by now, I’d forget it. Try the Senate race. Might be some value to be had there.
Hey Prescott issued instructions to LAs to get the best returns, even if they were in foreign banks.
Some of them had stuff on 3 month deposits and so couldn’t withdraw them when things started to look iffy.
I am not entirely sympathic. I rejected an overseas investment in favour of watching my money disappear at home.
88 - Is that a law firm?
I think Ohio will go McCain, as will Indiana, Missouri, N.C. Nevada (perhaps) ….
Glenrothes. I don’t know whether in the long run this crisis is going to be better for Labour or the Conservatives in England (I still think the Lib Dems got more traction thanks to Vince Cable than many of you give them credit for) but in Scotland Labour are going to get a real kicking. And it will start in Glenrothes.
The Local Authorities there who have lost money with the Icelandic banks have been told that Local Government finance in Scotland is a Holyrood matter, not something reserved to London. So Whitehall will see the English authorities are OK, but not those north of Hadrian’s Wall. Mc Swinney has been saying No, it’s a financial services regulation matter, not a local government finance matter, which I must say seems entirely reasonable to me. In any event, it is making Labour look shifty as well as incompetent, and opportunist as well as spiteful.
72
Test 8000?
I expect we MAY - note my caution - close well below it tonight. Either that or we bottom.. but Monday possible..
78.”But the Treasury has so far refused, criticising the councils for investing huge amounts of public money in badly run banks.”
Isn’t that a change of policy direction in less than 24 hours?
80. Michael White was suggesting that Brown may quietly drop 42 day detention and let it die with the lords vote. To help consolidate his position of strength within the party and to prevent a big controversial issue reminding the public why they hate him. It seems too optimistic but we can hope.
Nouriel Roubini on Bloomberg is a cheerful soul!
Unconfirmed Rasmussen tracker - M-45/O-50. Unchanged.
Hopefully he’ll let ID cards die with it. it’s not as if the government can afford them now.
66 G
A more entertaining and possibly profitable shout might be: ‘Go West Virginia!’ [Go west, Virginia...geddit? Alright, I'm off.]
97
He’s been proven right over the past 4 years..
I expect we will see FTSE sub 2,000 by 2009/10.
And any chance of Labour winning any GE for 15 years? Gone with the pension funds..
74- Who’s “excusing” Palin’s views based on her physical attractiveness?
???
101 On reflection, I’d avoid ‘come on Virginia.’ Might be misinterpreted.
89 PtP. I’d rate Georgia before North Dakota, West Virginia and Montana.
96. Yes. But he will say it has not been dropped but will be in the next manifesto -except it won’t because he will not be drafting it.
101 - He was suggesting that we need an immediate worldwide 150 bps interest rate cut, global recapitalisation of banks, global 100% deposit guarantees. Otherwise depression!!
Montana, W.V, Georgia are not worth any bets. McCain will win those with atleast 5%
For sure VA is going to Obama, all polls are comfortable for him.
92 You are entitled to your opinion, Jaz.
If you intend to bet on those, you will surely find no shortage of takers.
Brown drop 42 days?!
April 1st was over 6 months ago, buddy.
Brown drop ID cards?!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
104 Yes Jack, you can argue about the precise order in which they might fall, but you can’t dispute that there’s nothing really juicy in terms of EVs until you get to Texas. That’s the point I was trying to make.
I’ve actually had a few quid on Obama to win win Texas at double figure odds but I will be astonished if it comes in.
110. I.D. cars will look even more like an expensive waste now, as will all those promises he made in his conference speech.
Latest Rasmussen tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 50%
Note - Unchanged.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Dow down 133….144….154….186….207….224….240
112 - Oh I forgot about that, wasn’t it laptops and broadband for the poor!
There’s as much chance of Labour dropping ID cards and 42 days as Osama bin Laden has of winning Miss America; in fact if he were to shave off his beard he’d have better odds.
Dow according to google:
-932.59 (-10.07%)
Dow down 263….299….304….346….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/oct/09/gordonbrown.labour
Some interesting points about Brown’s reshuffle.
Maybe Dave should start PMQs off by asking why the Government/Cabinet/Payroll is bigger than ever.
111 PtP. Georgia’s fifteen is quite “juicy”.
http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582 Live Dow Tracker
Dow down 581
111 PtP, with way McCains campaign is crashing added to depressed people as result of crash I’m beginning to wonder if there will be a very depressed GOTV on GOP side compared to a stimulated one on Obama’s. Could be you are on to a winner with Texas.
DOW now Tankinggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg.
Dwo down 384…402…438…445…454…461…479…498….509
8,080.43
-1,177.67 (-12.72% )
120 Might be OK for an Old Codger like you Jack, but I prefer mine bigger than that.
TV Networks are lagging…
-1,182.37 (-12.77%)
Dow starts with a 7…
dow under 8000
Dow down 522…529…557…578….600
Below 8000
Dow sub 8000. Good god.
-600. Dow to plaunge past 7500 barrier today?
I think we may need a fairly swift 1%+ rate cut to stop this slide. Otherwise we are in danger of talking ourselves in2 total meltdown!!
121 That is a depressing page - the DOW is tanking on each refresh.
Er, so, is THIS a stock market crash?
DOW -680
Surely there has to be some buying of quality at these levels?
136, you aren’t paying attention. This is Gordon saving the world economy.
Dow rallying…
If the google page is correct shouldn’t trading have been halted?
There is a circuit breaker for an 1100 point decline before 2pm in the US.
http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html
139. Thanks, don’t tell Gordon I doubted him.
127 PtP. I’d heard you were a “size queen” !!
Looks to be an equally rapid rise - down a mere 380
Crazy volatility.
Berlusconi saying that a supsension of world markets has been discussed…..oh God!
The financial system is collapsing
Big rally now…
142, I won’t need to. His 12bn database will find your doubting, his 20bn ID card scheme will be able to identify your last transaction location and his 42 day detention will prove ample time to beat a confession out of you.
123 There are some interesting cross-currents, Ted.
Some will no doubt be unwilling to vote for a black President. Others will vote for Obama precisely because he is black. Then there’s the GOTV, which is supposed to be an Obama strength.
There are quite a few imponderables in this election. I suspect that the polls are, if anything, underestimating Obama’s position but I don’t like guessing when putting down hard cash. I’ve tended to dismiss the imponderables as broadly neutral and go on what the polls, MSM and the blogosphere are telling me.
If I had to guess now, I’d say Jack’s BUTT is as good a guide as any - 376 to Obama, give or take the odd CD.
Not sure, but Google, Yahoo stats which are live. Massive rally at the minute…
147 but will it follow the FTSE pattern? Big fall, bounce, decline, then?
It was minus 1100, I went to drop my bottle in the bin and it was minus 300. Crazy stuff.
Massive rally to -300 ?
143 Jack
Remember Benny Hill in The Italian Job?
Mmmmmmmmm……….
154 - Only -150 now… crazy!
14.45 now..
now 14.46 !!!
Dow -161.05 (-1.88%)
My buy of RIO is up 30, what a day. Banks powering the Dow. Gonna sell now.
Why is Barclays trying to avoid the Gordian banking deal?
It was never -1100, that would have been below 7500. It only briefly went below 8000. There was an error on the Google/Yahoo site, it is fixed now.
And why are people hoarding dollars when the US economy is in such bad shape?
162. Not enough gold to go round?
161. Accoring to IG Index, which shows live trades, not Googles delayed numbers, it ’spiked’ down to -1300
146.Sky reported on that rumour just as the Dow seemed to rally.
155 PtP. Indeed.
…………….
Meanwhile ….
New WSOCtv/Eyewitness News poll for North Carolina :
McCain 47.8% .. Obama 46%
http://www.wsoctv.com/download/2008/1009/17671509.pdf
The rally is presumably linked to the end of the Lehmann auction - any experts here care to comment? Incidentally, thanks to Ken and others who have given us the benefit of their expertise without too much partisan wrapping.
It tempts me into admitting ignorance of something which I ought to understand, which is why interbank lending is so crucial. I get the fact that nervousness about level of debt makes banks reluctant to lend to each other, and that this makes the system less efficient, because a loan by bank X to bank Y to enable Y to lend to business Z for some sensible purpose doesn’t happen. But surely this just means that some banks (X in this case) have more cash available for loans that they’d otherwise have lent to other banks. Why is business Z not able to get a loan at all, not even from X? Advice welcome, and you get to sneer about ignorant MPs if you like.
A few other points on the threads:
- Gordon looks confident and positive for the same reason that anyone does when they’re doing an important job in a crisis and they feel they’re on top of it - wartime commanders generally look the same. You might disagree with his assessment but that’s the reason for it, and you don’t actually want a leader in a crisis looking shattered and miserable.
- I’m a bit surprised by the widespread acceptance by Tories that they’re about to slump in the polls. I don’t think the electorate moves that quickly - I expect us to edge up a bit, but a Tory lead of 9-10% is still IMO likely. But I do think people are noticing the apparent absence of ideas or even media presence of the Tory front bench. Cameron, I recall, was A Man With a Plan. What was the plan? I can’t remember, and it’s my job to pay attention to such things, so I doubt if the public can either. Is it relevant? Does it need updating?
160 - because it dilutes their share capital. If they can avoid the deal, they will look attractive from a dividend / capital gains persepective compared to banks which do not take up Gordos (feeble) offer.
163 Spot on with the gold comment. US dollars are seen as the next best safe haven after gold.
167. ‘I’m a bit surprised by the widespread acceptance by Tories that they’re about to slump in the polls.’
Erm, I don’t recall that being generally accepted.
170 - Rather there is a widespread belief by the Labourites they will be improving their position (substantially) in the polls.
167. I believe the plan was to fix the society that you and your chums broke.
I wouldn’t say that Brown is one top of events either. World leaders are undoubtedly being led by events and those events are leaving them all, including Brown, further and further Brown. There is only so much posturing the man can do before he has to formulate another plan. Plan Z 2.0 I believe?
171. Labour supporters think that 24/7 coverage of Brown laughing at bank collapse and bullying small countries is popular with the voters.
172. That should read ‘further and further behind’ and not ‘further and further Brown’. That man is clearly always on my mind.
171. That’s what I thought. Most proclaimed tories on here think we’ll stay around the same, some labour supporters are blindly asusming it will help them gain ground.
And as for the man with a plan jibe nick, remember ‘no more boom and bust’ from your glorious leader?
Lloyds TSB down 6% today - HBoS down 26% today. There is going to be some serious pressure to unravel - or at least renegotiate - that deal.
NickP
Bank Y has lots of private information on business Z. Bank X is probably in a different country/different line of business. Bank Y built up information on business Z through years of transactions and personal contact. Small firms end up with a single bank because they cannot invest the time and effort of building two such relationships. As soon as a business gets scale, it goes for multiple lending relationships so that they can avoid monopoly profits for the single bank.
167, the plummeting stock markets are Brown being on top of things?
I agree Cameron should be more visible though.
What do you make of the collapsing bank joke?
167 “The man with a plan”. That proved to lack substance didn’t it. The Tories performance has been very weak.
I agree though we’re still in for a substantial Tory lead. Any Labourite who celebrating is seriously misguided.
Bush to make a speech in about 20 minutes to give confidence to the markets….
167.”- Gordon looks confident and positive for the same reason that anyone does when they’re doing an important job in a crisis and they feel they’re on top of it - wartime commanders generally look the same.”
Nick, can you please stop referring to the military when trying to big up your leader.
178. Agreed. Cameron and Osborne really should be holding some sort of daily joint press conference.
Sorry to turn to such trivialities whilst the stockmmarket burns - but I now think the chances of Gordon going before the next election have risen hugely.
He will have his ‘hour’ and then stick it out through the recession. Then Mandelson will force him out - the flack he’s taken will make him a liabilty.
He will fake a voluntary resignation saying he has given the country all he has - too tired, steered through the troubled times etc.
He will think he has a face saving [enhancing?] reason to go and something he thinks he can take away for posterity - the man who steered us through our financial dark hour.
He will think of Churchill, draw parallels and wait for the acclaim of history.
167 - Nick P - in answer to your question - because banks have to spread their loans (via statutory requirements) across different bands of credit risk. Interbank lending (until lately) was seen as a safe loan, so they could make risker loans (i.e. to business, consumers and on credit cards) because the proportion of safe loans they had to makes were covered by lending to other banks.
Now if a safe bank suddenly becomes a risky loan (i.e. credit ratings for the bank are downgraded) the bank can either (1) find a different safe place to lend or (2) cut back the amount of risky loans they have to restore the proportion of safe loans they need.
This is why the rescue package will fail; even if the banks take the government money, they cannot currently lend to other banks (as they are now seen as risky) and cannot lend to businesses or consumers (high risk loans) because this would break their required proportion of safe to risky loans.
When conjurers want something to disappear in future they will no longer use the traditional incantation. It will surely be adapted to ‘Heh, Prescott, its gone!”
179, back to “all style no substance” I see. Will he be a toff, a chameleon etc etc as well?
183, I’m not so sure. Labour cannot get rid of him in the immediate term. Will they want to do so after the financial crisis subsides (if it does) and during/before the recession?
I think Brown will hope on, clinging to the 1992 result like a comfort blanket, hoping it’ll happen for him.
167: ‘I’m a bit surprised by the widespread acceptance by Tories that they’re about to slump in the polls.’
I suspect that’s merely what you hope the Tories are thinking Nick.
167 - Interbank lending freezing up means that the banks don’t trust each other anymore.
And the following blog post explains why we need the banks to trust each other if we are going to have food to eat or fuel to heat ourselves with.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/international-trade-seizing-up-due-to.html
167. NP - This article explains in fairly accessible terms the pressures building on many of the banks:
http://mises.org/story/3146
Cameron and Osbourne are doing the right thing keeping out of this. The main thing they should do when they are on screen is associate themselves with the little people and not with the bankers to nullify the default association.
167. I think part of his plan was to recapitalise the banks about four days before you got on with it.
Part 2 was to listen to the BoE instead of mounting a back street operation to discredit it.
Part 3 is to make sure everyone knows why we are so vulnerable and who did it.
I think in a time of “crisis” the incumbent is likely to stay. The problem is however, is when the the recession is eventually over, Brown will be totally discredited with the massive debt, increasing taxes, lower spending that will come as a result.
Dow looks like it might hit positive!
193 - And it goes up!
167. My point about Gordon is that his level of confidence is odd. Yes, it is an important job. I do think the package announced is about as good as one could expect. I dont think it was too late given the political economic circumstances. But, I have watched crises unfold in various countries and in companies and generally the leadership always looks dreadful - the pressure, the worry, the sheer amount of money put on the line. You dont want the leaders to look shaky or tired, but an element of uncertainty and worry is always there. Gordon looks happy. I dont expect you to criticise your party leader, but I find it odd and unnatural. I also find it slightly disturbing since I wonder how he will react if something goes badly awry.
Contrary to the views of the ISDA man, I still think that along the line we are going to get some nasty shocks vis-a-vis derivatives, and it could well mean that a UK bank calls on the government backing for the interbank borrowing.
Dow is UP!
+67.46 (0.79%)
193, I really can’t tell if people are pulling my leg regarding the Dow or the FTSE these days.
wow never seen anything like this since 9/11,
186 Cameron was the self-styled man with the plan. The only problem is he forgot the plan part. Not hugely impressive. Quite frankly I would rather have the Tories looking like they have a clue since they are still favourite to form the next govt. At the moment they’re doing a MacCavity impression all of their own.
It does not bode well.
Im shorting here, banks mostly.
I don’t know if Stuart Dickson has pointed this out yet, but the details of the latest Populus poll has finally been published, and the Scottish sub-sample shows the SNP ahead of Labour by 42% to 28%. So, with the greatest respect to Mike, this does rather give the lie to his assertion a couple of days ago that there’s concrete evidence for a Labour resurgence in Scotland.
We’ve now had four Scottish sub-samples since the Brown conference speech - two have put Labour well ahead, one has put the SNP slightly ahead, and one has put the SNP substantially ahead. Conclusion? Never rely on sub-samples with their inherently huge margins of error - we need a full-scale Scottish poll to work out what’s really going on.
197 - It is weird I know…
Heavy fluctuations at the moment…. Last night there was a massive sell-off 30 minutes before Dow close, I suspect something similar might happen today.
New GW Battleground poll
Obama 51 (+3) McCain 43 (-2)
Lead from 3 to 8 points in one day. This means that with Gallup still to report all the trackers show Obama leading by 5-12 points.
Latest Battleground tracker :
McCain 43% .. Obama 51%
Note - Yesterday M-45/O-48.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_101008_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
Actually I do think we will go down in the polls.
The gap will close.
I will have a smile at all the comments that will come from Nick and friends about turning points and hung Parliaments.
Then the rot will set it. For Labour for Brown and sadly for the country.
167: ‘I expect us to edge up a bit’
You’re being ludicrously optimistic there Mr Palmer. The best Labour dare hope for is a small dip within the margin of error. There’s every likelihood that Labour’s poll share’s gonna plummet to the earth’s core.
199, you must’ve missed his brief speech before his full address when he did argue for a number of points, including bolstering the Bank of England’s role (which I think Sally has already pointed out).
Brown invented the failed regulatory structure and got the country drunk on debt. He’s now masquerading as a hangover cure merchant.
To hell with Kent County Council, the Cats Protection League has lost £11 million in Iceland! If Brown can bail out the banks he can bail the kittys out too!
I haven’t a clue where the next polls are going to go. But for those with opinions….
Can we arrange a little wager here between NickP and the others. Something for the Cat’s home perhaps.
Perhaps Mike or PtP can frame a proposition.
Jon Craig says they world leaders are trying to come up with a world plan that is better than the ‘US one and it has to be said, Gordon Brown’s’.
Its going to dreadful for those about to retire on private pensions.
Good chance of people at bottom of the totem pole being motivated by fear of economic collapse to cling to Labour. Balanced by opposite movement elsewhere on the totem pole.
imo
Brown is in control. Eric Pickles scared him into declaring economic war on Iceland, the MoD have lost the personal details of have the serving military. He is claiming to have reduced the oil price.
Clear evidence.
203 Fair chance of that big late sell-off again today - who wants to be holding stock over the weekend, with talk of markets being closed down? 48 hours is a lifetime in this market - even with the markets closed….
Bush getting ready to speak (usu tanks mkt)
From the PH tracking poll!
More impressive still were the changes to public perceptions of Gordon Brown, who emerges as the biggest winner of conference season -albeit, it is probably more to do with the economic crisis, than conference itself. Since the beginning of conference the proportion of people who think he is “weak” has dropped by 6, “ineffective” by 7 and “indecisive” by 4. He is up by six points in being “competent” and “reliable” and up 5 points on being“strong”. Brown’s reputation has started to improve in the areas that were once considered to be his strengths. At the same time his net approval rating has recovered from minus 58 at its worst point before conference to minus 41.
It can’t be denied that perceptions of Labour and Gordon Brown remain dire compared to the other political parties. Even having made a significant recovery, they are still viewed far more negatively than their rivals. That said, they will be happy to be moving in the right direction.
209 I am happy to report that my own favorite charity, The Injured Jockeys Fund, has no such concerns about its savings. But then the people who run it know a thing or two about gambling.
210 If they’ve lost £11m every bit would help….
Ugh. Harriet Manhater’s on Any Questions as is Oliver The Nice Letwin, Shirley EU-phile Williams and Peter Hennessy, a political historian.
Letwin’s nice and likeable but a tougher Tory would probably be better suited to the present time, methinks.
[211] - “Its going to dreadful for those about to retire on private pensions.”
It is yes. However, stock market crashes are a feature of the Capitalist system for a long time. It is madness that private pensions are so reliant on the spot price on the day that the annuity is purchased. It goes completely against the concept of saving for decades for something that you hope will pay out for at least a decade [and as long as possible..]
Can’t we come up with a better system that doesn’t shaft people unlucky enough to be due for retirement now, rather than 18 months ago?
re 210 I am sure that there will be polls this weekend but none are scheduled.
I know that next Tuesday there’s due to be another poll of marginals coming out because I have been booked to take part in a discussion on it.
It’s very hard to work out which way things will go and whether this will tell us anything.
from Conhome.
Back to reality. I’m supposed to write about politics, so here goes. You read it here first. I think that Labour will win the Glenrothes by-election. They have successfully recaptured the media narrative and as the crisis accelerates, more and more articles will appear, positing the utterly false contrast between the heroic efforts of the Prime Minister, doing “whatever is needed” to be done, and those of the evil bankers, ignoring the truth that pushing overinflated mounds of cheap, bad debt was as central to the strategy of the former as to the latter. The chief job for the Tories should not be to come up with a soundbite to solve the crisis, since I genuinely believe that no-one really knows how to get confidence back into the system. Instead, we should make the assumption that confidence in the markets will slowly return (because if it doesn’t, we’re all ****ed anyway), and make sure that our message about how we got into this mess is coherent, understandable, and bought by the electorate.
Failure to do so will give Brown his best chance of winning a snap election. The most chilling moment at this week’s car-crash PMQs was when that Labour backbencher shouted 1979 in answer to the question When did the Age of Irresponsibility begin?
219. Prob why the Beeb invited Letwin.
Mr Jones of the two mega unions one, with members in the banking sector, welcomed government action the other made poo-pooing noises and demanded protection for other sectors.
And that second reaction is how it will go.
221. It certainly feels like we are going through an extended version of conference season in polling terms.
222 - Tactical announcement to ensure Tories get behind the SNP to ensure Labour do not win it.
212 Sounds plausable.
Coverage counts for so much. They will get some for that. I don’t think there is any point in Cameron fighting for coverage. He doesn’t have access to the BoE, the advisers, the stats, the meetings etc or the media.
He has to be patient and sit it out. The work done previously about the state of the national debt will pay dividends. There is some evidence it has made headway in the polls.
His guns are full. He just needs to fire them at the right time.
Brown knows how vulnerable he is. Did you see the way he avoided looking at Clegg during PMQs and his reaction to J Jones?
222, if they do win it, it’ll be a nice boost for our Supreme Lunatic. However, if they get their hopes up (having written it off) and then fail, it’ll hurt all the more.
Let’s hope Labour lose.
I think Bush43 just referred to “confidency”. It’s a perfectly cromulent word.
211 Well it would be fascinating if we could frame a short term proposition about the next set of polls. Since things are SO vague/volatile it would be interesting to see where the punters think the parties stand. The seat spread is informative, but it would nice to get something a little more short term going.
177/184/189: thanks very much to Ken, Albion, and TPS - and you didn’t even needle me for needing to ask!
224. Yes - the first big corporate casualties will start rolling up over the next few months. How will Labour react?
Huffpo looks at Obama’s attempt to snatch one EV in Nebraska’s CD 02 :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/10/obama-promises-competitio_n_133506.html
222. Thats a fantasy, Labour will get thrashed in Glenrothes.
231 - You are a Labour MP. Wouldnt expect any more
Bush tanking the mkt as usual.
A snap election would look like what it was - cutting and running.
We know they way things are going and so it makes sense to do it before things get bad.
What makes you think the rest fo the country won’t know that aswell?
Lehmans 9.75c
227. Yeah, he’s not stable. Even with all of them rallying round to try and hold him together he could flip back to depressed any time.
Kay Burley - who listens to Brown droning on forever whilst repeating the same pap -says Bush didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.
237
A snap election, could be easily justified by calling for a ‘Doctor’s Mandate’ ‘I need the entire country behind me, its time to back me or sack me’ easy!
This is Sam Brittan.
May I end on a personal note? Some friends and colleagues ask if I have not been guilty of trying to dethrone Keynes in favour of Friedman. Not so. On many key issues these two thinkers have been at one against the financial herd. More important: when British “Keynesians” tried to use fiscal and monetary policy without regard to inflation and tried to cure the latter by making unions agents of wage restraint and businesses agents of profit control, I parted company. Recently I supported the Bank of England’s disinclination to cut rates against my own instincts when we were faced with rising inflation from energy and commodity prices. These have fallen back sharply under the influence of world recessionary forces and we cannot now wait for the slow process by which these forces work their way into consumer price indices.
The Bank’s internationally co-ordinated half a percentage point bank rate cut needs to be the first of many – and these must come quickly. It will probably need to be supplemented by a fiscal stimulus. Most of the academic objections to this would be overcome by a temporary indirect tax cut which the UK chancellor of the exchequer can announce any time under “regulator” powers.
Wow! who’d have thought it?
229 Perhaps a subtle hat-tip to Saturday Night Live’s “mavericky”?
It is interesting that the crisis seems to be undermining incumbent parties elsewhere in the world (U.S., Canada) but boosting Labour. Any ideas why this would be the case?
241, easily justified to those who want to believe it.
Brown ruled out an election last year and this year, and probably the next one in his massage by Andrew Marr last conference season. People aren’t thick, and Brown’s blown his credibility.
243. There hasn’t been any polls since this particular crisis, so the bosot is confined to people constantly repeating it without any evidence.
FTSE threatening sub-4000 again…
A snap election, huh? Let’s go ask the voters under the winning slogan of
“Gordon Brown: five more years!”
Next bright idea…..?
Interest rate cut cancelled:
Abbey confirmed it was not passing on Wednesday’s cut in the Bank rate to new tracker deals.
Abbey has confirmed that it is keeping the interest rate on all of its tracker mortgages for new borrowers unchanged, in spite of a half a percentage point cut in the main Bank of England interest rate on Wednesday.
Abbey’s existing tracker customers are unaffected as they will automatically have the rate cut passed on.
Abbey and some other lenders had left standard variable rate (SVR) unchanged by Friday.
243 - Because, as Coldstone would suggest, the public mood is at least in part to blame unrestrained capitalism. Governing parties of the right (as in the US and Canada) have no figleaf. Governing parties of the left can talk of greedy bankers and at least deflect part of the blame.
For myself, however, I don’t expect Labour to get much of a boost, and evidence to date of one has been scant.
243. There’s no evidence for that yet. Just a PM enjoying himself.
245- If it is true, though, perhaps this must be looked at through a different lens. That is, perhaps the phenomenon at work is that people tend to run to the left in times of doubt and uncertainty, seeking to suckle at the comforting teat of a big, protective government, which they run to the right when they are feeling bold and confident in their abilities and prospects.
167: Gordon looks confident and positive?
Not according to this psychologist
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/7663563.stm
Priceless!
freefall now party over Bush spoke and ruined it.
Dow next support 7200.
Re: 248, when do people think that credit card charges will be raised, and borrowing limits cut?
All this talk of Labour bounces: Most real people just see: reality..Redundancies, rising prices and interest rates (that is real interest rates).
254 - This is already happening at the lower end of the market.
249. if you want evidence of a boost, look no further than spinners posting on this site. two weeks ago, “the line” was oh no, not two more years of Brown, we want this shower out. now a snap election would apparently be unnecessary and unjustified
Lehman Brothers
Initial Results of the Lehman Brothers Auction, Friday 10th October 2008
Inside Market Midpoint: 9.75
Net Open Interest: $4.92 billion to sell
Adjustment Amounts
HSBC: $12,500
Below are the participating bidders for the Lehman Brothers auction.
Bidder
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Bank PLC
BNP Paribas
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Deutsche Bank AG
Dresdner Bank AG
Goldman Sachs & Co
HSBC Bank USA, National Association
JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
The Royal Bank of Scotland PLC
UBS Securities LLC
256. Don’t think its just at the bottom end.
222.No link or credit to the author?
“Failure to do so will give Brown his best chance of winning a snap election. The most chilling moment at this week’s car-crash PMQs was when that Labour backbencher shouted 1979 in answer to the question When did the Age of Irresponsibility begin?”
Its just incredible, the idiots careering around the road in the drivers seats are now trying to blame the previous owners. God, their tactless and inappropriate behaviour would be no less attractive in a party that has been in opposition for 11 years! Can’t they see that, or more pertinently, have the Brownite Whipping crew got any idea of just how unattractive their style of attack strategy is.
Think Tom Watson filming Sion Simon’s youtube effort or Dave the Chameleon, that is the territory they are beginning to stray into this week. Have they really lost all proportion or grasp of the present situation, I am beginning to think they have. Utterly bizarre.
255- But isn’t the polling evidence mentioned at 216, showing a bounce for Brown personally, as well as another poll I believe was mentioned here showing Brown/Darling about on par with Cameron/Osborne for competence in a crisis, good news for Labour and indicative of a rebound?
257 - Just what a country in the grip of economic turmoil needs, a general election taking all decision-makers out for a month. Anyone suggesting a general election now would not just be partisan, they would be certifiable.
The main difference between Spreadfair and the other two firms is that the former is a betting exchange.
….. and like Betfair, Spreadfair deducts 5% commission from any winnings.
254. Already happening and new cards being restricted.
Many people already had letters telling them limits being cut.
243. There is no real evidence it is yet, although there is a determined campaign of spin to suggest there is.
257. Not because the tories think they’ll lose, they’re still well ahead in the polls.
253- Could someone order Bush to stop talking without anything concrete to say? Every time he does the market plunges…
Now everybody waits for the G7 (Having prepared some of these meeting in the past, I wouldn’t expect much).
257 - There’s a difference between wanting a change of government and wanting the distraction of a general election campaign in the middle of a global crisis…
267. bet mccain wishes bush would shut up as well
Thinking about that psychological assessment of Brown on the Daily Politics, it is no longer funny, its scary.
254
Credit card action has already started,my wife had some unusually high charges last month,but still within a high credit limit.She received her statement and noticed that the payment deadline had been reduced to 20 days,after a long argument with the card company
they reverted to normal payment terms.
This is for someone that pays off outstanding balances at the end of each month.
264. I just recieved a £10,000 unsecured loan without any proof of income at 8.5%, applied online, the only thing they where bothered about, was the huge pressure to take out payment protection.
243. Boost? Are we talking about the tory lead of fifteen per cent? What you are witnessing is the final uncoupling of the consciousness of the Labour party from the public mood.
He He! The Brownophants are muting a snap General Election now. This is too good to be true. Sadly, I’m away for several days so won’t be able to join in the shock-and-awe gloataphon when Labour tank in the next set of opinion polls. Have fun everyone else…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7662918.stm
Sounds like a dailymash story - Gordon demands something that will happen anyway
Gordon demands sales after christmas
New thread
265- The resiliency of Labour is really amazing to me, though. Granted, they aren’t exactly doing well in polls, but they are still within shouting distance of the Tories. How that can be the case given the virtually unbroken string of bad news for the past few years, is a bit of a mystery to me. Also, they are tarred with the Iraq intervention, which I believe is even less popular in the UK than it is in the U.S. Why aren’t the Tories enjoying poll leads comparable to those Labour enjoyed during the last Tory administration, a time when things in many ways seemed less gloomy (correct me if appropriate) than they are now.
261. No.
277. They’re not in shouting distance. They’re fifteen points behind!
272 - Payment protection is stupidest thing i ever heard - I’ll pay the bank for the risk of me not paying! I have always refused but the bank should just charge more in it’s headline rate.
241. Yeah, but under your other persona of Grumpy Old Man, you thought an election last autumn was going to happen, which Labour would win, and we all know what happenbed to that prediction. You even ended up convincing me, against my better judgement!
Worth a read..
http://www.dinl.net/chartOfTheWeek.php5?m=y&id=54
277 - time will tell
277. There’s two battlegrounds imo.
There’s the high-information, paper battleground of the people that read a lot and find out stuff. Zanu Labour have lost that completely.
Then there’s the low-information, high emotion battleground of TV and to a lesser extent radio. The impartiality or otherwise of the media is critical here. Unfriendly media minimize the negatives of the agenda they support while maximizing the positives, and vice versa for the agenda they don’t support.
282 - That’s fascinating. It makes me want to learn more about economics. What a clever chap (he says, not knowing if he is utterly right or wrong, but being impressed with the confidence with which it was said. Confidency, perhaps).
New Thread
Berlisconi has called for world markets to be shut down while global leaders re-write the rules of international finance
Hello New World Order