Is Labour’s boost confined to places where it doesn’t matter?
October 7th, 2008
Could the move to Gord be in the heartlands - not in the marginals?
Firstly the caveats: As I’ve been saying for weeks polling during the conference season is almost always very odd and we need to wait until the end October surveys at the earliest before we can start drawing conclusions. Secondly looking at sub-samples in polling data can often deceive.
But on Saturday the Guardian’s polling writer whose judgement I respect, Julian Glover, produced an analysis on the latest national ICM voting intention survey which identified a trend, which if backed up in the coming weeks and months could have a dramatic impact on how national vote shares convert to seats won at the next general election. For Glover suggested that the recent increase in Labour support might be being confined to its heartlands.
If this indeed does prove to be the case then the much-quoted 10% vote margin that the Tories need to achieve a commons majority might not be the requirement after all.
The move back to Labour in its heartlands might explain the vast disparity that we saw on Sunday with between the standard national survey and the ICM Labour marginals poll. The latter had the Tories doing considerably better and Labour doing considerably worse in what will be the key LAB>CON battlegrounds.
What’s taken the Glover thesis is a step forward has been the detailed data from the latest YouGov poll. Reproduced above is the regional break-down from that poll and a comparison with the last national YouGov poll before the local and London elections on May 1st this year.
The big disparities are in the north and even more so in Scotland. Just look at the shares in the October survey and compare them with April. You should note that the Scottish shares are not just a fluke from one poll. In the previous survey taken after Brown’s conference speech the Scottish and northern numbers were in the same area.
YouGov’s Scottish shares in its past two polls have been 42% and 43% which is somewhat higher that the 39.5% that Labour got there at the general election. This can only mean that elsewhere Brown’s party is polling disproportionately worse. There are, of course, very few LAB>CON marginals in Scotland.
This is one we are going to have to watch.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
No (std answer to a Mike Smithson Question)
Does anyone really believe the Tories need a 10% lead to get a majority?
So how do you deal with the polling points
By the way, does this poll mean Labour are probably going to hold Glenrothes? Or am I misreading it completely.
1. Trying to recreate the ‘Will Obama be the candidate’ moment by Roger?
Latest Rasmussen tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 52%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
5 That was a pb.com golden great wasn’t it!
4 LOL
Bad news for the SNP - they may have peaked.
8. Hey, idiot, I’m growing tired of your useless comments. Labour are leading comfortably in Scotland in this poll, so is it such an unreasonable suggestion to make?
O/T - Russia’s quid pro quo?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2203316/coffee-house-exclusive-what-the-russians-want-in-return-for-bailing-out-iceland.thtml
5 Actually Mike does have a bet that John McCain will be replaced. SO maybe it isn’t a done deal. It would funny if Roger 10% was right in the end!
10 Let’s just say holding Glenrothes will come as such a shock to Labour, it will probably result in several more by-elections!
Well I’m gonna call it right now.
LAB HOLD GLENROTHES
You heard it here first.
The last time I met Julian Glover, was when I slept on his sofa on the night of the Newbury by-election. Pleasant chap. Was a LD once.
Actually it is still significant. Yes, the election will be decided in the marginal seats and there is ample polling evidence that these seats are substantially more Tory than they were. However in 1997 Labour were recording record levels of support even in safe Tory seats (and lets face it, if it stayed Tory in 97 it is pretty safe!) I see no evidence of that happening in reverse yet. This backs up the feeling that the Tory lead is actually a Government drag, id est not pro Cameron but anti Labour. Until the Conservatives start to be clear about their plans in public and in detail there will be no build of support to them, no great desire for a Conservative government. As long as the support is soft, Labour could (theoretically) turn it around. I don’t think they will, but they could.
11. Not a surprise. They did indeed start handing out passports in Ukraine a few weeks ago too. They are playing for real, it’s not just some kind of demand to be treated nicely.
10
So Labour are the nasty party!
14. charlie = the red “‘Ave it” !
Let the battle commence..
14 - Unless it is Jack W’s ARSE, I won’t bet the farm on it!
14 - Well, I think Lab will hold it.
Labour will be destroyed because another 1.5m will be unemployed by the time the next election comes around. No amount of spinning will be able to disguise what people see with their own eyes.
An end to boom and bust, we were promised.
The problem with this poll is that geographical distinctions used are very simplistic. I’m guessing we are taking ‘North’ as a Labour heartland and therefore can dismiss it as irrelevant to the election battleground but what YouGov here defines as the North here contains many of the most marginal seats in the country e.g. North West and West Yorkshire.
On a purely anecdotal level I find it hard to believe Labour are leading the Conservatives in any region.
14
=
son of Gabble.
16. 40%+ all the way through conference season as well as the high figures saying there is no chance of people changing their vote suggests a pretty hard rather than soft core now.
Brown gave his conference a core vote strategy. That’s never going to win him an election. Should boost turnout in safe areas and it might save one or two seats. The latter is much less likely. Any core supporters who come back are likely to be outweighed by switchers/non-voters going tory.
The SNP has not had its annual national conference yet (16-19 October, Perth). Common sense would dictate that we look at Scottish voting intention figures at least 14 days after that conference ends, so that all 4 party’s “bounces” have resolved themselves.
16. “Until the Conservatives start to be clear about their plans in public and in detail there will be no build of support to them, no great desire for a Conservative government.”
But then if they do, Brown, with no principles other than a demented lust for power, will simply nick the popular ones. I think the Tories are absolutely right that the Opposition should not be a government think tank and focus group combined.
This chimes precisely with the point I made a few days ago that the recovery in the Labour vote is mainly to do with a slight rebound in their voter numbers (from I assume undecideds), rather than a decline in the share of either the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats. These are likely to be their core voters returning to Labour after Gordon’s slightly left wing speech. It isnt an “economic competency” shift - that would have required the Tories or the Liberal Democrats to lose votes. Where should these returning core voters be coming from, if not from the heartlands. So, Mike S, spot on.
As for Glenrothes, I suspect that the usual by-election dynamic - the desire to give the incumbent government a bloody nose will still mean a difficult time for Labour, but perhaps a far better chance to hold onto these heartland seats at the GE?
Who are the “others” who are being so badly squeezed in the north?
And charlie’s question about Glenrothes is an interesting one, though of course national/regional (delete according to allegiance) polling bears no resemblance to the result in an individual constituency.
Interesting to see that if we were to believe the evidence of these subsamples, the Tories have actually strengthened their position in Midlands/Wales in the last 6 months. A 52/30/12 split in London implies that the Tories would win Frank Dobson’s seat. It is an interesting question how much the Tories’ organisation will impede them in some seats that they might otherwise have a chance of winning in London.
Charlie, as I tell Gabble, it’s hope that will crush you in the end….
I met someone whom I know is a solid Labour voter, and we were discussing the economy. Most of what he said is unprintable, but I dont think he will be voting Labour, That said I dont think he will vote Tory either!.
306. Peter the Punter - “I think we should be advised of the name of your ‘other half’, so that we know when you are operating as a tag team.”
I thought that ChristinaD was unnecessarily coy in her answer:
“I thought it was common knowledge.
We might both be Tories, but alas, that is usually the only thing we agree on when it comes to politics. He is very much in line with Easterross’s views on the political landscape in Scotland, makes for some interesting discussions though.”
PtP, I was under the impression that Fitaloon was Chris’ husband:
http://www.microshaft.co.uk/
The one thing that may have switched a few minds in the conference season was the ‘novice’ line. Cameron could deal with that by bringing back Ken Clarke (assuming he’d want to accept). We aren’t going to join the Euro and it would totally neutralise any Brown advantage.
For personal reaons, I don’t think Cameron would want to move his Notting Hill chum Osborne.
27 Giving the SNP their Conference “bounce” just ahead of the Glenrothes poll! Smart work, Labour….
‘national/regional (delete according to allegiance) polling bears no resemblance to the result in an individual constituency.’
Of course, but surely logic would state that if Labour are leading so comfortably in Scotland (on an admittedly small sample), they would hold one of their safest seats in the region?
There was always going to be a core vote bounce from Gordon’s speech - that was precisely how it was targeted. It has hardly dented the top-line Tory position, so I think Mike’s analysis has some merit.
However, this is likely to be a very short term phenomenon. Holding onto nurse for want of something worse is not going to cut it if unemployment rises by 500,000 to 1m next year. And where do we expect unemployment rises to be the highest? Labour’s heartlands, you say? Give that man a banana.
16 - I don’t know how focussed Labours campaigning was in 1997, but I get the feeling that the Conservatives are very focussed on the marginals now, so I wouldn’t expect them to have much increased support in the safe Labour seats. I don’t think it’s much of an indication as to whether people are particularly pro Conservative or anti Labour.
In fact, if you get a situation where the Conservatives do campaign in safe Labour areas, we aren’t doing too badly. I, for example, campaigned in the local elections this year in a safe Labour ward in one of the ten safest Labour constituencies in England and picked up almost 20% of the vote. That was on the strength of one leaflet delivery and no canvassing. I appreciate that 20% is fairly modest, but a few years ago you wouldn’t have given us a hope of getting 10% whatever the Labour government was doing.
Do the SNP usually get a conference bounce Stuart? Genuine question by the way, not being sarcastic, I have no idea what the answer is.
i suppose labour could fight glentrothes saying “hey, you know us, we hate the greedy banking bastards that did this to the country, only we can sort it out as the tories are all city spivs”
which ignores the fact that there are as many city spivs in the labour party, rich hedge funders and bankers bankrolling new labout, and that they have had 11 years to “control the greedy bankers”. but done nothing about it.
expect Labour to be thrased in Glenrothes. The government going to become more popular because of this? No the problem is getting worse, has been for weeks, and nothing has been done.
That the government could benefit from these events is the bigggest most Orwellian sinister Spin Lie ever dreamed up by a government PR team. People - don’t believe it!
Frank B don’t you mean, no time for a has-been.
37. shoulda bin… ‘…for fear of…’ Apols.
36. I think Labour will just hold it. I think that as Brown is a neighbouring and very local MP many people will vote out of loyalty to him. Probably will be tight tho.
14. Methinks you are the idiot, Labour’s own polling in the constituency had them 5000 behind SNP. I very much doubt that Labour have any chance whatsoever of winning this one. No matter where you look in Scotland it is hard to find any good being said of Labour.
5/2 at Ladbrokes is probably fair value for Labour to hold it - suspect they will be 7/4 by the end of today…
45. Do Betfair have a book for this yet?
41. You have to accept that the novice line was effective. About as as you could get, but nonetheless effective. Ken Clarke’s return would change all of that.
I’m not a lobbyisy for ken by the way - although I did suggest Gordon give him the Commisioner job. Get him before Cameron does.
Ladbrokes have 5/2 Obama to win over 370 electoral votes. Good value?
28 PSJ, didn’t Cameron say, on his election as party leader (something Labour should try) that he would put forward policies where he felt he had something to offer, that he would not be scared of the Government stealing the idea because it would be in the national interest and the voters would know the truth. Or was that just posturing, like his silly pledge on EPP-ED membership during the leadership campaign. It bothers me, as a Conservative, that he is still vulnerable to the charge of being vacuous with no policies. People are crying out for a platform to follow as an alternative to Labour’s defunct statist solution to everything.
45. I wonder if 5-1 isn’t more like it.
44. Methinks you’re a pompous moron. I love how you can’t come on here and try and ask a question without getting a simple ‘LOL’ from Maggie Thatcher fan, and then being labelled an idiot by MalcolmG.
Scum.
44
To be fair, the Labour poll figure is a lot higher than one would have imagined? I still think Labour will get a bloody nose again.
40 I don’t think the SNP will be shy of mentioning the hedge fund millionaires and bank share shorters who have supported Gordon Brown’s offices and the Labour Party.
RBS is perhaps also a factor - Labour might say they saved RBS if state recapitalises it.
47. as ‘last resort’ as you can get.
52 In Scotland that is
40. Surely SNP get a bounce from saying “if only we had been in charge. No Tory or Labour spivs in the SNP. Save BoS/RBS. Send Gordon a message.” type of thing.
O/T anecdotal wittering about the scale of A-A turnout in early voting in Georgia. Highly partisan (Daily Kos) but it does suggest Georgia is very much in play.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/7/7385/31228/524/621898
44 - “No matter where you look in Scotland it is hard to find any good being said of Labour.”
So how come they’ve gone up 15 points in six months then?
O/T Anyone know a good personal inflation calculator?
The City is backing Brown:
Howard Wheeldon of BGC Partners, a City firm, said: “Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling clearly have no understanding whatsoever of how to achieve an orderly market. Leaks, leaks and more leaks from who knows where have led markets to understandably conclude this morning that HM Government is testing the water about investing £45 billion into the major clearing banks.”
“Our Government is making a bad situation worse and it is all so unnecessary.”
51 - Hey, calm down. I agree with you - there was no need for the rudeness. But don’t blast off into the stratosphere….
59 I use a tape measure…
Hard to believe that with both major banks down the tiolet and potentially huge job losses from them and the associated disaster that would ensue will have done much for Labours chances. Also given that it is a very small sample and the fact that you can scour any Scottish blog without hardly finding a good word said about Labour and labour’s own poll that has them 5000 behind. Doubt they will retain this seat.
state recapitalises it - every one of us will pay in our taxes anyway. what a mess Labour have got us into. straight back to the 70’s with banking crises and oil shocks. strikes this winter no doubt.
38 Labour was very adept at targetting marginal seats in 97 - that is why their vote went down on 92 but the seats was so dramatically high!
Charlie. I wondered the same. So we are both idiots
Of course I will be quite happy to be proved an idiot.
Professor Thingy from Southampton Uni suggested it was possible for them to win IF they picked up enough.
Did’t sound like he would put his RBS shares on it though.
Well it just annoys me that you can’t come on here and have an opinion without getting shouted down by a bunch of fools who have nothing to give in response.
Re the Glenrothes by election, Easteross has spelled it out several times, SNP by 5000 votes
60 - Yeah, that is their MO, as can be seen when they crippled the remnants of the housing market by flying the stamp duty kite.
59. Compare outgoings on your bank statements over the last year.
60 Did you get that from the BBC?
I think we are seeing a mirror of the campaign in the run up to 1997.
The Tories now (as Labour were then) are campaigning hard in a swathe of Labour seats and have more money and enthusiasm in those seats. Their campaigners are more likely to be using up to date techniques, delivering more literature and knocking on more doors.
The Lib Dems are doing similar things in a smaller batch of seats where they are the challengers, and working their socks off to hold on where they are the incumbents.
The likely result of all this is that there will be an above average swing to the Tories in the Con/Lab marginals and some big swings to the Lib Dems in LD/Lab marginals.
51. Very adult, grow up or stay in your playpen.
The two latest YouGov sub-samples have Labour support in Scotland at 42% and 43% (highly unlikely IMHO considering that they only got 39% at the UK GE in 2005).
However Julian Glover in the Guardian a couple of days ago said that the combined nationalist vote in the latest ISM/Guardian poll was an astounding 7%. The combined SNP/Plaid vote was only 2.1% in 2005. So that is a more than threefold increase.
Which one is nearer the truth: YouGov or ICM?
74. typo: “latest ICM/Guardian poll”
67. You are the clown who is calling people “Scum” just because they do not agree with you. That adds a lot to the debate , get a life.
16 Paul Norton. Did you watch Cameron’s speech, or just the BBC travesty of it? The speech was packed with sensible policy comments and directions. How can you expect anything else - 1)They are not in government 2)They have no idea of the extent of the mess they will have to clear up or the resources available to do it 3)The Labour party is desperate for new ideas 4)17 months to the GE. A manifesto will be written - the Conservatives would be advised not to issue it before Labour get hold of it.
63.But on the other hand, in a crisis people will tend to cling to what they know. I would expect Labour’s core vote to solidify around them. Brown could, in the normal run of events, start pushing for the swing voters and Tony’s tories when we get nearer the election. But given that our economy is close to collapse, that won’t work and Labour will not win the next election. Life-long labourites may be less likely to desert them in these troubled circumstances, but very few others are going to trust them at all.
73. Silence, minion.
You can’t just go around throwing out insults expecting nothing to happen. People like you bring this site down.
Mum has gone to Iceland - but I doubt she’ll get her cash back…
76. No, not because you don’t agree with me. Because you called me an idiot.
67 - Everyone gets their share of abuse from time to time. Remember the compliments and forget the insults. Sending a volley of abuse back just loses you sympathy that you were otherwise going to get.
81. Please children, can this tantrum take place elsewhere?
16 - this is to underestimate Cameron yet again. Every time a doubter / Labour whistler-in-the-dark points to some perceived Conservative weakness in the fine print of the various polls and surveys, there’s always an embedded assumption that this won’t change between now and polling day.
Thus, “Cameron hasn’t sealed the deal because he has no policies”. Well, that’s not a mistake or an inadvertent omission. Cameron is a moving target and won’t reveal a great deal until the GE.
How big is the sample in the YouGov poll, its normally only 20 or 30 and so is liable to huge inaccuracies, especially as they often weight based on the 2005 GE which bears no resemblance to the 2007 SE, SNP won the equivalent of this seat in 2007 and Labour are seriously more unpopular than they were in 2007.
79 Charlie, you could redeem your credibility somewhat by indicating how much you have backed up your assertion that Labour will hold Glenrothes with bets placed at the bookies….otherwise it is a rather hollow assertion.
79
Er Charle you were the one who started it by calling me an idiot and being very rude to me. People in glass houses….
87. You started it by simply responding to my comment with ‘LOL’.
Anyway, this is getting us nowhere. I have just placed £50 on Labour to hold Glenrothes. My money is now truly where my mouth is!
77 I didn’t watch the speech, I heard it on the radio. I know there were policy comments and directions but the charge still sticks. For some reason (possibly the BBC but more than just them) the message is not getting across that the Conservatives have something to say.
I agree with 1&2 of your points, but remind you that Cameron said at the start that he would not fear Labour stealing his ideas, because the earlier they were implemented the better for the country. Anyway, when Labour have stolen the only concrete policies that anyone associates with the party (IHT and Non Dom changes) everybody knew they were Tory ideas!
Dow back in negative territory - FTSE coming back sharply too.
IMF estimates banking losses to date as $1.4trillion.
sounds like they should apply for a carol vorderman consolidation loan and make easy regular monthly repayment?
Cable is blinking almost as much as Ed Balls on BBC at the moment, weird!
Just heard that the European depositors protection level is being raised to 50K Euros (it was anticpated it would be raised to 100K). What use is that if the UK is £50K and various European countries are unlimited. There is still no level playing field.
Also from last thread:
Re ADs commitment (about the only one and which has been repeated over and over again) to UK Depositors means he has to ensure depositors in Icesave are protected no matter what their balance is. Nothing so far been said on this as far as I can see. Only reference is to the FSCS and 50K limit. Also nobody seems to know what will happen if the Icelandic scheme isn’t able to pay out the initial protection. And timing of payouts? Lots of noise on this weeks ago yet I don’t think anything was decided.
88 “I have just placed £50 on Labour to hold Glenrothes.”
Good for you.
72. One thing to note about any Lib Dem held marginals, according to the politicshome marginals poll, Lib Dem incumbents are the most popular local MPs (and keep in touch the most) so they get a local boost vs national poll swings.
78 The state dependent will cling to them.
The may get an uplift amongst the ‘oldies. But they may be outweighed by the ones who have seen their pensions/savings shot. Though I suspect they voted Tory anyway.
The younger ones may not bother if it looks like Labour are going to lose.
Blair was always petrified of his electorate not thinking it was ‘close’. With the collapse of Old Labour in its heartlands, we don’t know what will happen if it looks certain they are going down.
Alot of Tories dissappeared when things looked hopeless.
88 Well done, that’s the best way to settle any dispute here. I wonder how much people are putting on the Tories.
For the record I think there is a bit of a mob here that tries to put down anyone who deviates from the St Dave meme. You’re well within your rights to object to being called an idiot.
It seems to me after reading all your posts that you started it. You can dish it but cannot take it …
14.”Well I’m gonna call it right now.
LAB HOLD GLENROTHES
You heard it here first.”
Not quite.
67. Chalie,it seems to me after reading all your posts that you started it. You can dish it but cannot take it …
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 46%
Yesterday M-41/O-47.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/dailytracker/
100. Interesting observation there, Matthew Pain (I don’t recognise the name, so I’ll assume you’re yet another nameless Tory troll), you clearly didn’t notice Maggie Thatcher Fan’s response to my first post in the thread. But I’m glad to see the euphoria of your leads in the polls has rendered you completely blind.
The fink says Cable is overrated
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/10/following-the-s.html
Sub-samples too small, e.g. Telegraph poll shows a swing to Labour in Scotland, which must be nonsense.
My estimate is that if everything went the Tories way, in particular
a) poor LibDem performance
b) extremely favourable regional swing
c) heavy anti-Labour tactical voting
d) and plenty of luck in the recounts
the Tories might scrape a majority with an 8.5% lead….
but somewhere between 9% and 11% is more likely
‘which must be nonsense.’
Smithson’s law….
96. I think the talk of tories as spivs and speculators is desgned to raise the fear level amongst the flaky voters. And the talk of a lack of policies is an attempt to raise doubts amongst the swing voters.
Regarding that 2nd point, Cameron started his conference speech by saying ‘it is time not to give detailed policies, but a set of values and an idea of character’. He did that. In fact, it was surprisingly right wing, attacking PC, defending marriage, reclaiming Thatcher, supporting the troops; all the right wing buttons were pushed.
The Conservatives have come up with a few big policies that make it very clear where they are going on a number of areas (schools, border police), and as soon as an election is called, more policies will be unveiled. It is useless for Labour to hope this line will work come an election, but its all they really have right now, and translates into the plea ‘better the devil you know’.
103. As well as being economically overrated, his conference speech confirmed that he also isn’t funny.
Stalin to Mr. Bean? The coverage that ‘joke’ got was unbelievable, I smiled the first time I heard it, but it literally saturated the media for weeks, pathetic!
‘Labour launches byelection campaign in Glenrothes
- Jim Murphy, the new Scottish secretary, suggests Gordon Brown would bring ‘real benefit’ by visiting constituency’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/07/glenrothes.scotland
103 Of course he is. Don’t know why he’s only just noticed.
Redwood [yes I know he is abit odd but he knows hiS stuff] is always correcting him on his mistakes.
107 - It was funny because it was true. It kept being repeated because it was true.
108 Oh dear! Salmond will be pleased.
Possibly a smokescreen to cover the ‘no show’?
105. no, just sampling theory..
101. wow huge jump considering how steady that tracking poll has been over the last few days
106. GPWM. Also, of course, the obvious rejoinder to “Cameron doesn’t have any policies” is “OK so what policies do Labour have for the years 2010 to 2015?” The answer, of course, is none as yet, because the Tories haven’t furnished them with any.
107 110 But the joke wasn’t his. It was a bloggers.
I always want to slap Cable when he smirks about it.
I know its something trivial but the fact he takes such public credit for something that wasn’t his is a real turn off.
Note to boys: Don’t take credit for the jokes of others unless you can be sure of getting away with.
Women like men with a sense of humour - their own.
The BBC is getting ridiculous, interviewing Nick Leeson and laughing that we are doomed. This is what our licence fee is going on. Grr.
Charlie & MalcolmG - Gordon & Mandy?
Nick Leeson live on BBC News.
Presenter:
“So if you were in charge, Mr Leeson, what would you do? No pressure.”
89 Your comments about lack of Cameron policies is correct, in a way, as how can you get anything over to the public, in 10 second time slots on the BBC news When he has something to say on forth coming policies the BBC dont send a reporter. Give Sky credit where its due, the whole thing is covered and the questions afterwards, and on the red button for most of the day
DOW falling now - they dont seem to like the FED latest free money offer
107 110 But the joke wasn’t his. It was a blogger’s.
I always want to slap Cable when he smirks about it.
I know its something trivial but the fact he takes public credit for something that wasn’t his is a real turn off.
59 For those looking for a personal inflation Code example: Calculator<a href=
118. BBC again parroting Labour’s populist drivel. It’s so unsubtle, as well.
I doubt if many supporters of West Ham Football Club will vote Labour again.
LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - London soccer club West Ham’s finances were again in the spotlight on Tuesday after the Icelandic bank chaired by the club’s billionaire owner was put in receivership, the latest victim of global financial turmoil.
The Icelandic government said it was taking control of Landsbanki (LAIS.IC: Quote, Profile, Research), the island’s second-largest bank by value, as the country’s financial system threatened to collapse and its currency plunged.
Owner Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson, erstwhile chairman of Landsbanki, led an 85 million pound ($148.3 million) buyout of the east London club in November 2006.
He invested another 30.5 million pounds in West Ham in December 2007 after buying a further 5 percent stake.
He is Iceland’s second-richest person, after his son Thor.
The Gudmundsson family are major shareholders in Landsbanki.
West Ham, already reeling from the loss of its shirt sponsor last month after the collapse of tour operator XL Leisure, could not be reached for comment.
123 - I think it is worrying that the BBC think that asking someone who lost £800million on derivatives trading is qualified to comment.
116: ‘The BBC is getting ridiculous, interviewing Nick Leeson and laughing that we are doomed.’
Of course, now that the perception is that the financial crisis has benefited Lord God King Gordon and provided Labour with a ‘narrative’ for recovery all’s well in the world and the rest of us can go hang.
122. Nothing’s coming up, Richard.
124. How on earth is that Labour’s fault? Please explain?
‘Brown urged to get involved in Glenrothes campaign as date is set’
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/Brown-urged-to-get-involved.4566039.jp
125. The perfect man to symbolise Labour’s phantom ‘greedy banker’ scapegoat. This lot would have done a pretty good job editing the Volkischer Beobachter in times past.
‘Glenrothes byelection: Labour pins hopes on Murphy’s lore
- Labour might be the underdog in this crucial byelection but If anyone knows how to win a local campaign it is the new Scottish secretary, Jim Murphy’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/oct/07/byelections.gordonbrown
127 Dodgy hperlink. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/business/2008/inflation/default.stm
Agree 110% with the thrust of your thread,Mike Smithson and I’m a mathematician.
Essentially this is the weakness that caused the abandonment of ‘the election that never was’ in 2007.
The open published polls were telling Brown that either he would win big or just win, but Labour’s own findings told them that there were trouble in’t marginals !
I actually think this phenomenon has been accentuated recently and that we could be in a 1955 or 1959 situation where Labour do comparatively well in the heartlands and very badly otherwise.
The situation could be even worse because of the unusual situations in Scotland and Wales.
‘Electors ‘denied vote’ in Glasgow East’
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/opinion-former-index/legal-and-constitutional/electors-denied-vote-in-glasgow-east-$1243819.htm
101- JackW
Any indication of the reason for this sudden jump? For the moment it seems an outlier.
Frank B hasn’t the old has-been condemned Obama (good for future relations) and all his new novice ministerial appointments at this time of crisis with his ‘no time for a novice line’.
At the same time he tries to paint Cameron as deep in the Treasury during the ERM mess, which suggest he has lots of experience and not a novice at all.
Trying to have it both ways usually means that the consequences hits you from both directions at once.
65 - Er, Labour’s vote went up in 1997 by quite a significant amount. It was lower than Major got in 1992, that’s all.
135 Obama taking a hit from the Palin negative campaigning? If McCain’s staff think so, get ready for the most dirty final month of campaigning ever seen.
The Kos poll is also coming back slightly on the daily totals, but that looks more like a post-Veep debate hit on Palin working its way out of the numbers.
Iceland is Russia’s bitch now. Might mean Mccain gets a few more votes because of it
132. Thanks, Richard.
The reason for Labour suffering in the marginals is simple. They outperformed the national picture in the marginals in every election since 97, so that is where there is a bigger reverse to come. (note that many of the REALLY big gains in 97 eg. Enfield Southgate, have already returned to the Tories - in accordance with this). They have underperformed in their safest areas, so are shedding fewer votes there now.
128.
Certainly,Gordon Brown was the Chancellor who caused a horrendous debt bubble in this country.It is now bursting and hence the nickname”Crash”Gordon.
Please consider how the “toxic” mortgages arose and which government was in power then.
101-Is it my imagination or have we seen a few of these recently?
UPMYASS not picking this, but then aren’t state polls supposed to lag? Where there is a comparision (sort of) with 538 they say Obama is up by between 4.8 and 6.2%, but thier ammalgamated state polls (as per below) show him 4.9% ahead.
Latest UPMYASS (with change on a week ago)
e-v D 48.4 (+1) R 45.7 (-1)
rcp D 47.3 (+0.7) R 44.7 (-0.7)
538 D 51.7 (+0.7) R 46.8 (-0.5)
2P share
e-v D 51.4 (+1) R 48.6 (-1)
rcp D 51.4 (+0.7) R 48.6 (-0.7)
538 D 52.5 (+0.6) R 47.5 (-0.6)
Incidentally using pollster.com the state aggregate is D 47.4 R 46.1 but I accept their methodology may be apparently suspect.
Would like to think the race is far closer than received wisdom says but can’t be sure. At least not yet.
139. There’s going to be big trouble over this if Russia really does try to extend its strategic reach to Iceland, rather than simply safeguard the ill-gotten gains of a few notables.
RBS down under 100p again.
Time for Gordo to email Pesto again ?
144 - Quite, we need to be alive to countries like Russia trying to leverage geopolitical advantage off of financial mayhem!
146. Iceland was occupied by Britain in 1940. If they are not careful something similar will happen.
Do you think if the Tories were in power and this was happening, what the Labour party would be saying in response to it all being “global events”.
Does anyone remmeber the Tories trying to blame “global events” and “America” last time we had a recession, after the last bug credit boom? Because i do. It didnt work then and it wont work now.
146. Maybe Gord could tap Russia for a bail-out? Keep the red flag flying!
PS Blaming the Tories or general blame shifting by Labour won’t stop RBS going bust or into public ownership of some sort tomorrow. Nationalised Westminster Bank…..jeez.
145 Also a very significant widening of the gap between HBoS and Lloyds-TSB (around 14% today) - raising the chances of that deal unravelling.
Good to see Ken Clarke on the tele just now, saying. ‘One of our problems is we aren’t in the euro’
I hope Dave dumps George and makes Ken his CofE if only to read seant’s reaction.
60
That’s just what we need some, ‘cityspiv’ berating the government for not handing out enough taxpayers money.
138. the dkos poll is going to show a big drop in the gap tomorrow when that +13 from Saturday drops off, at this stage i’d say we’re seeing really good days for obama just dropping off the trackers rather than mccain having good days himself.
147 - yes, my grandfather was stationed there by mistake in WWII - they confused him with another man of the same name! Presumably not the worst posting one could get.
Based on purely anecdotal evidence over the last few days I have the impression that many more Scots are challenging the SNP’s arguments that Scotland’s economy would do better after independance They are beginning to recognise that a number of smaller countries e.g. Iceland, Ireland and Denmark have worse economic problems than larger countries. While this may not be critical in Glenrothes it is another factor which the Unionist parties may attempt to exploit.
148
In fact the clever clogs at Tory HQ who advised all Tory politicians to use the term, ‘Worldwide Recession’ was one David Cameron, anyone know what became of him!
152. Another fellow traveller pops up, parroting the same bullsh*t line. Don’t say you weren’t told a few days ago this would happen…
Re: the Scottish sub-samples, and their relevance to the Glenrothes by-election. Firstly, for a sample of 187 in a population of 5,000,000, the ComRes calculator (if it’s accurate) gives a margin-of-error of over 7%. In other words, the true Labour lead over the SNP could be either miniscule or enormous. Hence, the ‘usual caveats’ Stuart Dickson always refers to are in fact rather gargantuan caveats. Two very similar sub-samples in a row are interesting but scarcely conclusive. It’s also worth pointing out that the most recent ComRes sub-sample had the SNP marginally ahead.
Stuart mentioned the 7% combined Nationalist figure in the ICM poll - this is very curious because on the raw data the SNP were receiving very similar support to previous polls (actually down fractionally). So how the weighting got the figure to as high as 7% is a bit of a mystery - perhaps the Guardian misreported it.
On the question of whether the SNP have historically enjoyed a conference bounce - my subjective recollection is sometimes yes, sometimes no. In any case this is only the second time the party has been in government during conference, so perhaps they can expect greater than normal publicity as a result.
On the issue of Glenrothes, my understanding is that the SNP were thought to be at least marginally ahead within the boundaries of the UK Glenrothes constituency at both the Scottish Parliament and local council elections last year. The significance of this is that, at the time, Labour still enjoyed huge leads over the SNP in polls covering Westminster voting intentions (which is all that the YouGov sub-samples are asked for), while the SNP had the edge nationally in polls for Holyrood. The by-election is perhaps better seen in that context, given that it is perceived to be a straight Labour-SNP contest (similar to Holyrood elections) rather than swamped by the Labour-Tory battle as it would be at a general election.
I would agree that the by-election now appears to be more unpredictable than before, and perhaps as a result there are value bets to be had on Labour, but for reliable predictions of the eventual result we’d be well advised to wait for quite a bit more information.
153- Ok. still the last day of the Diageo/Hotline must be very close to have only a total McCain deficit of -2.
Regarding the betting aspect, this mechanical reduction of the gap could influence the price. + if McCain has a good debate night (and he loves town-hall meetings) the average gap could fall to around 3. Bound to influence some states prices, isn’t it?
I do hope you arent accusing Mr Clarke of talking bullsh*t!
Just announced GB,AD, the FSA and BofE governor to meet tonight.
Council and Euro elections to be held on same day June 4th - confirmed by govt.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2008/10/gordon-postpone.html
160 Gives Gordon another month in the job!
159 - Excellent. Another rumour to spook the markets. What the f*ck are these idiots playing at?!!!
The Russian Minister of finance has denied that any deicision has bee taken regarding a loan to Iceland
159. RBS high on the agenda ?
160. Excellent - a double bill of Labour humiliation to stay up for. Labour to lose all county councils and poll 15% or less in the euros.
160 After the chaos at the Scottish Parliament and Local elections on the same day that should be fun.
but , but, but, i thought boom and bust had gone out with the nasaty Tories????
166. Perhaps Brown is hoping to cause so much confusion that he can annul the results.
159
- no more details yet, but at a guess the BOE Governor is going to be told to lower rates…
159.”Just announced GB,AD, the FSA and BofE governor to meet tonight.”
Confused?
I thought I saw something earlier on Sky which indicated that the BoE and the government were going to make a combined statement?
Didn’t they also have a meeting last night with the Banking Chiefs?
Didn’t the NEC/Cabinet also meet this morning?
Didn’t Darling make a statement to the HoC’s yesterday?
Wasn’t Mandelson holed up in Downing Street all day today?
Etc, etc, etc.
169. That’s going to happen anyway
Re: Labour’s heartlands.
It also looks like there is a two party squeeze going on taking support from the LDs. Something similar happened a year ago leading to Ming’s demise.
The economic crisis is forcing people mainly into 2 and not 3 camps.
163-Seems their reserves have fallen from a peak of $596b to $556b in two weeks.
Afternoon all , on the thread topic , I think it wrong to read anything into the small subsamples for regions or subgroups , these subsamples are not individually weighted and the small samples will have a large MofE .
The Conservative doomsters on here ofyen say that increased unemployment will lead to further loss in Labour support in the polls . This is based on a false premise . The level of unemployment itself has little influence on voting behaviour , the Conservatives won several GE’s despite unemployment being at record levels in the 1980’s and 1992 . This is because even with 3 million unemployed there are 10 times that number in employment or students or pensioners . What does have an influence on voting behaviour is fear of unemployment .
On another topic , the latest tracking polls in Canada from the 3 main pollsters all show a big slippage in support for the Conservatives to 32-34% below what they polled in 2007 . Stephen Harper is facing a humiliating result having called an early election in the self confidence that he would have an increased number of seats if not an outright majority .
170. Mandy having his horns filed/kidney stone removed.
Re June 2009, I thought the Electoral Commission were against two elections with different voting systems being held on the same day?
Is wee Dougie involved in this?
markets have already priced in a cut in rates. wont help apart from in the most superficial , daily express headline manner. i.e for a day.
Don’t know if you noticed folks, but HBoS is actually down more today than RBS…
I thought Labour were going to push through PR before 2010? It would seem sensible.
So I regard this as extremely relevant
Nice to see Russia flexing its muscles in the extremely strategic Arctic Circle region and no one gives a monkeys. The political map is being redrawn and it’s landmass/nat resources that’s doing it!
159 I thought the NEC met yesterday. Surely they decided something then or was that just a smoke screen meeting. Or did they decide that the it was just another meeting to decide upon another committee to decide upon another meeting before asking Uncle Vince if he had a clue.
O/T Madonna not a Palin fan
http://www.nme.com/news/madonna/40278
Speaking as a lifelong Conservative since 3223BC, I have to say I’ve been rather impressed with Gordons Brown’s decisive handling of the current crisis, and will definitely be voting for him at the next general election.
174 Mark Senior “I think it wrong to read anything into the small subsamples for regions or subgroups ”
So why the flipping heck do you post on and on about council by elections of a few hundred people being significant indications of LD national support?
Could GB not have waited until the market closed before announcing he was having talks with the regulators. Announcements should be made when the market is shut not while it is open.
170.Got it! BBC and Sky news get to run this on their breaking news ticker!
” GB,AD, the FSA and BofE governor etc to meet tonight at 5pm to discuss the Financial crisis.”
Brown has to trail a further meeting to make it look like action rather than dithering. How long can he keep this up? When will the next round of leaks and rumours begin, tonight or tomorrow?
183- “rather impressed” is a bit weak… Why not “overwhelmed” or “won over”?
185 Gordon doesn’t seem to have much of an idea of how markets work. Witness his pre-announcement that he was going to flood the market with gold….
170 - It’s a new gameshow - ‘Gordon’s Wheel of Confusion’.
Seriously though, the amount of havoc he’s creating I wonder if he’s a deep cover agent for the old Soviet Union carrying out his preplanned mission.
MI5/6 are wasting their time looking for Alky Ada - the biggest threat to national security and stability is half a mile from their HQ’s, in Downing Street.
176.Apologies, I thought that he was in No10 today.
186.
QUOTE
THE GOVERNOR of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has privately warned Downing Street that he will resign if Gordon Brown directs the bank to become the key agency in a state-backed mortgage guarantee system.
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnew…gage_scheme.php
Gordon should take over the BOE and replace King with himself IMO.
183 You want the 5Live phone-in, luv….
11 et al. i have it on good authority that Russia’s quid pro quo will be the retrospective disqualification of Bobby Fischer from the 1972 world chess championship
186- To celebrate this decisive action, the Dow plunges!
186 Gordon will want to be the one to announce, in answer to a question, out of the blue, from one of the three remaining curry house plotters his Stability Plan to Do Whatever IT Takes at PMQs tomorrow.
Will Lord Mandelson of Rio de Hartlepool be inducted tomorrow?
183 The council byelections are rather more than a few hundred people , The Redcar byelection last week had as many voters as the whole of the Yougov poll let alone the subsamples .
173-2 months!
Mark Senior at 175.
‘Afternoon all, on the thread topic , I think it wrong to read anything into the small subsamples for regions or subgroups , these subsamples are not individually weighted and the small samples will have a large MofE’
HA!
Are you by any chance the same Mark Senior who was predicting doom for Plaid in local elections all last year based on tiny regional subsamples of national opinion polls?!
I welcome your conversion on this matter, and thanks for giving me the biggest laugh I’ve had today.
markets have already priced in a cut in rates. wont help apart from in the most superficial , daily express headline manner. i.e for a day.
HBOS are down at £1 today, 35% fall in 1 day, 90% down on the year.
196. they are also a much truer test, as they do not rely on self-identification and “certainty to vote” estimates.
194.
“We will do whatever is neccessary”
If the mantra changes to “We will do everything we can” thats the time to worry - Darling let that line slip in during yesterdays statement to the House - “everyting we can” translates to we’ve got no more money and cant think of anything to do
NuLabour are all ex-lawyers - Darling included - and they are very, very careful with the words they use
How long before Broon “suspends” the BoE’s inflation target?
If nothing more than warm words comes out of this meeting then its plunge time tomorrow morning.
POLITICAL BETTING QUESTION: What are the rules on political betting governing new election procedures at GEs? I suspect that GB would be wise to move away from FPTP and was just wondering would bets be returned on seat spreads? Thanks, EM
202 How long before Brown “suspends” the Monetary Policy Committee?
204. zero chance of that happening before next GE
196 So statistically speaking the Redcar poll is representative of the whole country? And you are smoking what?
Will widespread runs start tomorrow following the Icesave news? Will Ali, Gordo and Merve calm everyone down at 5?
I predict 100% depositor guarantee in all British banks, or there WILL be runs on all banks tomorrow. Go short RBS, long HeliBeds.
All you need to know about this meeting from the Beeb:
A Downing Street spokesman declined to comment on whether there would be any statement about the meeting to MPs.
There was no mention of the talks at the lobby meeting for journalists earlier on Tuesday.
P A N I C !
This latest pathetic handling of the news conference is pitiful isn’t it ?
What the hell happened to the party of media savvy and spin.
Then really are absolutely f*****g clueless and we’re all paying
for it !
Look at the photo of Gordon the BBC are using:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7657422.stm
Death warmed up…
175. “Stephen Harper is facing a humiliating result having called an early election in the self confidence that he would have an increased number of seats if not an outright majority.”
If the last year in the UK has taught us anything, it should be that nobody should be too quick to label the calling of a snap election a misjudgement. If Brown had called an election last autumn and ended up with a reduced majority, some (eg. Michael Portillo) would have called that a humiliation - but in retrospect we know he’d in fact have made the correct call. So, even if the polls are right, who’s to say Stephen Harper made the wrong decision? (That said, I’d personally be happy enough to see the Canadian Tories humiliated.)
205. Good question, mark - I rather think something like this is on the cards.
I really cannot see how the demonstrably failed “tripartite” regulation set-up can be left intact, and this in turns indicates that monetary policy is up for grabs. So, either the inflation target has to give, or as you conjecture, the committee itself.
207 Of course not , but there were a total of nearly 11,000 voters in all last week’s byelections and another 50,000 or so in all September’s byelections so a pretty substantial sample .
Why does Darling need Champagne?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/jonathan_isaby/blog/2008/10/07/champagne_for_alistair_darling
213. That’s a strange non sequitur
RBS plunging on news of this meeting
Down nearly 40%
214 not a balanced sample, with low turnouts and not making decisions on national issues.
198 To be fair in the only 2 places Plaid went head to head with the Lib Dems as opposed to others they didn’t do too well. Their PPC got beaten for Ceredigion Council not a good sign, and they got their clocks cleaned in Swansea.
195 - I think you’re bang on the money there - Gordon’s saving a big announcement for PMQ’s tomorrow.
A little bit of glory - how can he resist?
Never mind, the big grin on his face, as he pimps and preens, whilst rubbing Camerons face in it, will go down badly with the electorate at a time of economic crisis.
Reflect upon GB’s decision many years ago to sell our gold reserves:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/mar/05/mining.economy?gusrc=rss&feed=politics
Perhaps he is afraid to make bold decisions these days because of what happened to him when he made this particular one in the past?
215 who says it for Darling - could be for the welcome Lord Mandelson/Labour Re-United bash planned during the next Economic Committee get together. Good to see we taxpayers aren’t buying the cheap Tesco/Sainsbury own brand stuff.
209 maybe they’re sick of Peston?
221. In which case he should f*** off back to Kircaldy and let someone with a bit of bottle take over.
ROYAL BK SCOTL GR (LSE:RBS.L)
Last Trade: 88.90 p
Trade Time: 4:22PM
Change: 59.20 (39.97%)
The UK authorities have made an elementary financial error here: they have shown the market what the planned to do. And the market has moved against them. Aggressively.
What a surprise.
What a mess.
Who’s resigning?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/07/16760/hbos-101/
225 - Ouch!
I ahve just caught 2 minutes of the odious Yvette Cooper spilling out lies and misrepresentations at a astonishing rate. There is still a belief in the govt that they’ve done nothing wrong and we’re in a great position to face these problems. Amazing.
228
Which is why they are so unfit to solve the problems… They dont know what they are or how to fix them.
228 - I saw her doing that, and I had to switch off.
219. I like the metaphor of Lib Dems cleaning our clocks. Think I might use that - although be very careful of typos of it’ll never get past the filter! My views on what we did in Swansea aren’t printable. But Ceredigion - before May, PC 16 LD 9; now, PC 20 LD 9. Where’s my clock polisher?
201. There is plenty of money. Yes, we will end up paying something in taxes in future, but there is plenty of money. If worst comes to worst the government could have the BoE monetise its debt. And its a long way from this.
The banks need capital. They need a little stability so we can find out how much capital. Globally, the amount will be around 450-600 billion dollars. We will get some of that back. Once stability is restored some of it will come from private sources.
The amounts are big, but they are not catastrophic. For the likes of HBOS, Barclays and RBS, 50 billion pounds (together) is about 2 years net profits.
If this wasnt a systemic crisis, the “lets nationalise banks and /or let them go under” would be fine. But each bank failure adds to uncertainty and knock-on costs. We have an acute failure of trust and thus liquidity in money markets. It isnt going to be solved by allowing more banks to fail. Thanks to Credit default swaps and other derivatives, that will only result in greater uncertainty about the remaining banks.
This isnt about a lack of regulation. Its about bad regulation. Now is not the time to be thinking about the form of better regulation. Can people stop pretending that if you nationalise a bank, the government will end up having to pay all the depositors. This would mean that all its loans were bad. Clearly not true for most banks we can think of. Iceland is a special case - here I believe that the overall loss will be more than GDP and the government will simply have to default.
This is financial crises 101. Can Gordon please just get on with it. (Without holding a bloody press briefing every time.)
229. It’s even worse than that - they don’t understand what it actually means to tackle real problems, rather than just spin PR lines about how they are ‘taking action’. They don’t see any distinction between the two, between reality and perception.
211 turn off the central heating, go green.
and shortly Brown goes likewise.
230. She said Tories were irresponsible in their spending pledges. This after Brown announced millions of new computers for everyone funded by…
They don’t even seem to realise the irony of what they’re saying.
219. To be equally fair, that doesn’t detract from Meurig’s basic point - that Plaid Cymru had by historical standards a very good result across Wales as a whole, and the regional sub-samples of national polls had failed to pick that up.
220. If Brown really does announce some ‘big plan’ at or just before PMQs, in order to wrong foot the opposition, then he is not fit for the office. The current financial crisis is too serious to be used for political gain. Announcements should be timely and made outside trading hours if possible. To allow the markets to see-saw as he waits for the most politically opportune time to make an announcement is wrong.
I don’t think highly of Brown but I’d be astonished if he behaves in such a fashion.
228. Its all beyond their little heads. Their lackeys in the BBC like Peston have a lot to answer for.
Merkel is criticising the Irish… oh deary me!
Nothing about this wretched administration should astonish anyone.
The worse things get, the better for Labour.
The electors, like unsuccessful gamblers, will chase their losses…
241 - Are you sure?
241 No they wont, they will decapitate those responsible for them. one GB et cronies.
117. You related to Mr Ed ,what a laugh though I should take it as a serious insult.
I’m sorry. I apologise. I beg forgiveness.
And why all the above, you may ask?
It’s because every time I join PB in the early evening, the markets start to fall in earnest.
This happened on Friday, yesterday and now today.
But seriously The Icelanders had better beware of the Russians offering a gift horse loan. Naval Bases say the Spectator blogs.
233. “They don’t see any distinction between the two, between reality and perception.”
I think they do, but they spin and lie because they don’t dare tell the truth.
#241 Hopefully Labour will allow us to test your theory Rod.
237 - You’d better believe it!
What, looking at Brown’s previous behaviour makes you think otherwise? He has no sense of honour, no loyalty towards this country, it’s always, repeat always, been about himself, getting the top job, the power and keeping it.
At any cost.
the extent of this cock up is vast. the government pre-announced what they were going to do through Peston, the market didnt like it (AT ALL) - now what do they do?!!!
155. What about Norway , are any oil producing countries in financial difficulties?
231. Well the Swansea results mean there’ll be no more ramping about PC rather than the Lib Dems being the challenger there. They now own the anti Labour franchise in Swansea the one place in Wales they do so clearly. As for Plaid only sections of Cardiff offered hope in the longer term along the M4.
Ceredigion nice but your PPC went down, hardly encouraging.
How many Emergency Meetings has Emergency Labour had today?
247. We are entering a national crisis, akin to a war. People rally around the government in those circumstances, especially if the Opposition are a bunch of preposterous lightweights…
249. They simply never learn - it’s the stamp duty fiasco again, just far worse. And it all stems from the overriding culture of spin.
This post on the red box blog is pertinent
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/10/the-city-keeps.html
253. But what do they do when the government are preposterous lightweights?
253 Preposterous post. And you think the Great leader is handling the situation brilliantly..>>> see 255.
256. Revolution?
208 - I see Helibeds are offering “its bigger selection ever” and they do offer an attractive “order by lunchtime, deliver by bedtime” incentive.
I suppose the question is whether to use the spare bedroom or your own? And would one need a gun license too if you’re actually sleeping on the money?
And the danger of “over-stuffing” in the case of out-of-work bankers would probably necessitate the introduction of a £500 denomination note.
Security plays would have to be considered excellent investments - there are funds like UBS which just invest in these stocks, most of which benefit from the wide emerging markets trend towards increased security as the middle class grows. Add in developed markets and that’s serious growth.
Emergency Labour, UK about to get Caeserianed by Brown.
“What about Norway..?”
Yes, I am increasingly worried about Jan. If McCain’s fortunes do not improve soon, he could be facing severe liquidity problems.
Guido has a plan…
http://www.order-order.com/2008/10/guidos-plan-to-stabilise-uk-markets.html
228: Yvette Cooper is absolutely the worst of the lot, which is really quite a considerable achievement.
She either has no clue whatsoever, or is a barefaced liar. Quite possibly both. How can she possibly think that (a) they have nothing to blame themselves for and (b) we are well-placed??!
We haven’t been this badly placed for deacdes, possibly since when we still had rationing. And at least then we could see things turning slowly upwards, rather than heading inexorably down.
88. Good luck but I reckon you would have been as well flushing your £50 down the toilet, not personal but I look forward to you losing your bet, last thing we need is these wasters getting any boost. Salmond will see off Murphy just like the previous lot.
258. Perhaps a ‘new order’ eh, Rod?
251. “Ceredigion nice but your PPC went down, hardly encouraging.”
That’s probably got as much to do to do with the ward as the candidate. In any case, even if hypothetically he was that bad a candidate, presumably they’d have the option of swapping him for one of the twenty councillors who were successfully elected!
253. Rod, you always claim that you are no Labour supporter or voter but your posts are becoming increasingly blinked in your desire to bash the Tories at every turn and ignoring all the polling evidence. Over the past year there has always been a new reason why everyone will see the light and realise Labour are the best govt we’ve ever had.
Still at least you’ve put your money where your mouth is with oour little wager.
232: Globally 450-600 billion dollars you reckon?
Well the prospect of MORE than that sent the DOW down through 10,000, and that’s just for the US.
That $700bn bounced of this behemoth of a crunch like Alan Duncan off Cyril Smith. I fear it will need many times more, which we simply do not have.
HBOS fall 41%, RBS falls 39% at close…
262. As well as Gordo - lets hope one of the silver linings of this crash is the BBC is cleansed for the better.
264. Jim Murphy’s got off to an intriguing start. Last night, he told Glenn Campbell that the UK wasn’t in recession yet - the headline today was ‘businesses say UK already in recession’. He’s also claimed at least four times that the UK is the fourth largest economy in the world - I believe the FT reported earlier this year that it has in fact slipped to sixth, behind both China and France.
262 Guido blames Peston but the link he provides is more revealing:
“In any case, the financial markets had already laid bare the Treasury’s ignorance of how markets operate: while Kingman’s people might have hoped their briefings would smack of strong government, what took a real beating was Royal Bank of Scotland, since the prospect of cheaper stock becoming available made the existing shares look vastly overpriced.”
Kingman’s people are Treasury Officials and obviously source of many background briefings (leaks).
Strange goings-on in Kenya over Obama probe…
http://www.americasright.com/
268. Alternative higher estimates would be more like US$1.5-US$2 trillion. It seems a lot, but as a % of GDP it isn’t unbearable. US & European GDP combined is around US$30tn.
We still wouldn’t have gross public debt levels anywhere near their post-war highs, and there would likely be substantial recovery value from the gross sums spent as bank shares ultimately recovered.
The full understanding of what is happening here is a bit beyond me, but if Treasury briefings are causing this kind of run, isn’t it going to cause significant problems for Mr Brown and his future?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/07/16760/hbos-101/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/07/16759/royal-bank-of-scotland-headquartered-in-westminster/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/07/16730/hm-cash-call/
Whilst Norway is just as likely to suffer problems as any other country they are certainly better placed to deal with it since they have a vast, vast, oil fund which they can call upon to help with any intervention. Not that there arany interventions on the horizon just yet as far as I am aware.
Even the oil price drop is not a disaster since at just under $90 a barrel it is still way up there compared to production costs of less than $10 a barrel. Still, the NOK has dropped in value against the pound over the last few days mostly as a reflection of the drop in oil prices.
269. Another day like this tomorrow they they’ll be about bust, won’t they?
276 Couldn’t Norway then lend some cash to Iceland? A strong NATO, Scandinavian country would surely be a better source than Russia.
269
Just wait for Friday and Monday…
Gordon is setting the UK markets up for a 500 point drop in the FTSE in 1 day..in my opinion.
To be fair, it’s going to happen anyway and he is powerless… but the media handling is pathetic…
277 - They are not in a good place. The government need to sort this out!
271. If our economy has slipped behind France once again then that is a damning indictment of the way in which productivity has slid under Labour.
268. $700 billion was to buy assets. Not recapitalise banks. Its one of the reasons why I didnt like the Paulson plan. I assumed he intended to siphon off a bit from the $700bn to recapitalise. Buying assets and adding certainty to the market is an useful idea, but it doesnt really get us past the fact that some banks lack capital. The extra liquidity will allow banks to concentrate on some bad assets rather than trying to sort through all of them.
Most estimates of the US subprime disaster are that it will cost 500-1000 billion. Throw in a few extra 100s for everything else, and we are talking about a net rightdown of call it 1.5 trillion. Private sector capital raising raised about 350billion. Actual write downs on existing capital another 100 billion or so. Annually the banks probably make a couple of hundred billion in profits. Say, they can write off another couple of years of profits. You get to my number, give or take.
But let this go on, and the economy gets much much worse. The banks are already tightening the screws. It is far worse if they think they are on the edge.
yes
withdraw cash this eve if i were you!
I wonder if the CPS will be interested in prosecuting the government for creating a false market in shares?
279 - ‘Gordon is setting the UK markets up for a 500 point drop in the FTSE in 1 day..in my opinion.’
Is it deliberate?
@274. Snap on the figure. You just have to adjust for existing capital etc.
276
The IMF is forecasting a “severe world recession”.
There is no way the oil price will hold above $60 if that happens..
The markets are preparing the way for $200 oil by ensuring new exploration and production in difficult (i.e. expensive) fields becomes uneconomic. So spending slows , capacity growth slows and the seeds are sown for a shortage in 2015.
I’m heading out for dinner, will we have an economy when I get back?
275 Perhaps Cameron could ask tomorrow if Treasury Officials have been briefing BBC Journalists as reported and if Gordon Brown was aware of this and the financial impact of such briefings?
The government is no longer in control of this.
291 - what do you mean no longer?
Is it time to abandon HBOS? I’m tempted to move everything out. Govt guarantee or no government guarantee.
286
The Law of Unintended Consequences…
do too little too late…
291. It lost control a year ago.
291 agreed. its out of control.
291
lol.
How true…
277. No. The share price by itself doesnt make a bank bust, but it is used in risk model for default. The scale of the falls mean that all their counterparty (other financial institution) risk managers will be demanding that credit lines be slashed. It is this that represents the primary risk to the banks. It wont help that individuals will also be demanding their cash.
298. Yep. Recapitalisation today, nationalisation tomorrow.
299. …the price of dithering and spin.
effectively we have a huge bank run going on , right now, on the whole system.
One thing is for sure.
The FTSE has barely bounced to day after a huge fall. Sensible people are selling into rallies.
Cash is king.
The process is going to reach a head within two weeks in my opinion..
271, aren’t we only behind France due to exchange rates? I think a few months ago we slipped behind based on a bad day pound Vs euro.
You’re definitely right about us being behind China though. Somewhat worrying that the government doesn’t know something quite basic like that.
I also endorse Guido’s plan, which I think we have also concocted here, of getting Peston to shut the **** up and stop ****ing up the situation even more.
Wouldn’t be surprised if both RBS and HBoS are nationalised overnight. What then? Barclays and Lloyds in the crosshairs?
another 3 am announcement?
No nationalisation is required. Just a guarantee and a timetable for recapitalisation for the entire sector. Oh and a gag on Peston - who has now helped to create panic and a false market on multiple occasions.
To back up Mark Senior’s comment at 175 - the latest Canadian numbers put the Tories on 31, Libs on 26, NDP on 21, Greens on 13. The Liberals are now ahead of the Tories in both Ontario and Quebec.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081007.welxnpoll1007/BNStory/politics/home
304. I thought Lloyds was doing better than most of the other banks, due to having a much more conservatives buisness model? How come they have got caugt up in this?
306 - agreed. At the very least, a guarantee *right now* to halt the panic.
How long before Gordon’s standard speech becomes “Peter and I am getting on with the job, doing everything it takes to deal with the problems that started in America and was then was inflamed into panic by the BBC’s Robert Peston…”
309 -If a guarantee is offered, is it necessary for the potential debt to go onto the Treasury’s balance sheet? This is Browns dilemma.
Yet again, it’s Self before Country.
Brown will never be forgiven by millions for the disasterous decision he is about to take.
312. Which decision?
311 - I wouldn’t have thought so - unless a bank actually does go bust, it’s just a contingent liability.
311. Depends on accounting standards. It really is fairly meaningless in practice though. The big thing will be the capital they need to put in.
I am deeply worried by the lack of Treasury/FSA action on Icesave. This was clearly going to be an issue from over a week ago. They have had plenty of time to consider what they should be doing. It makes me quite nervous about the competency of those in charge. Gordon is not delivering.
The Queen should step in.
314 - Why hasn’t the Government offered the guarantee then? The upside (stability) is surely far better than the downside (complete failure of the banking system)
316
Constitutionally impossible.
308
HBOS 94.00 -66.80 - 41.54%
ROYAL BK SCOTL GR 90.00 -58.10 -39.23%
LLOYDS TSB 225.50 -33.50 -12.93%
HBOS crash as there is no one to rescue them and Lloyds almost crash because the market think there is a chance they are stupid enough to take HBOS on. As for RBS, I doubt they will be in business as an indepenednet bank for much longer.
Anyone think the deal is off despite all the assurance it is still going to happen? Things have got a LOT worse since the heady days of when Gordon brokered this deal. Like Jonah, everything our Gordon touches is turning toxic.
316. Wonder if she’s shifting money out of Coutts at the moment given the problems with parent RBS.
316 - I guess we’ve reached that point. It’s not going to happen though.
320 - Money must be pouring out of Coutts tonight. And there must be a sh1tload in there -that will not help the stability of the RBS Group.
315
I think the lack of action is because the idiots are like a pedestrian in a road blinded by headlights. they know there will be a crash, they know they have to do something but the consequences of action scare them more than the outcome of a crash.
The Treasury KNOWS that the results of decisive action will mean years of substandard growth to repay loans and restricted Government spending.
The political consequences of that would be Labour out of power for 20 years and GB being blamed.
SO do nothing and dither is the choice and the car comes closer and the lights get brighter…
318 She should walk down Downing Street with two loaded Purdeys….
319. Thanks for explaining.
Well if Lloyds deal with HBOS is bringing Lloyds down, they must surely pull out of it?
Further up the thread it was suggested that increasing unemployment does not necessarily favour the opposition. There are then some statistics quoted from 20th Century elections. In fact if you look at the stats again you will see that in the UK economic instability and hence increasing unemployment ALWAYS favours the Conservative Party whether they are in government or opposition. I suspect Tebbit was well aware of this in the mid 80s and every time the Beeb ranted about unemployment another 50,000 decided to vote for the party of stability, the Conservative Party.
If that argument is not provocative enough then a corollery might be that by sorting out the economy and hence reducing unemployment and thereby removing a central reason for fearing Labour John Major did for his own government.
326. The good times came, and talk of reining in spending was painted as being miserly.
317 - two reasons (mainly):
1.) The scale of the potential liabilities taken on is staggering, larger than GDP; and
2.) Illegal under EU competition law (as I understand it).
323 - Inaction leads to the same result or far, far worse.
It’s down to HM QE2, tanks on Parliament Green or angry mobs. Or if they’ve really got the bottle someone within Government needs to take decisive action and tell Brown he’s out.
I think your clock is running a few minutes fast Mike
328. Potential for moral hazard (banks on govt guarantee gamble for resurrection)
Political fallout if a big UK bank had a major derivative bomb - even though whether the bank was guaranteed or not, it would still have been a UK govt problem.
As for the EU rules. Stuff em. The Irish did.
The potential liabilities are huge, but the assets are mainly good (these banks are lending to UK plc, if the assets(loans) are bad, then we are stuffed anyway.)
318. Our Constitution is one based on convention, and is completely and utterly flexible. If the Queen steps in (highly unlikely), then by that action she creates a precedent, which if repeated a few times, becomes a convention. In a few decades, it would be expected that the monarchs steps in, and if they dont, then they would be breaking their constitutional obligations…………..
Does anybody here subscribe to “Counterpunch”? They have a teaser for an upcoming story that McCain’s melanoma has spread to his lymph nodes… May well be complete t0ss, but Mike might want to follow up, given his recent bet!
President Palin, anyone?
http://www.counterpunch.org/
216. I don’t think so - the BoE’s [i]quid pro quo[/i] for giving up banking regulation was control of interest rates. If - as seems likely - the failed tripartite structure has to be rethought, then presumably, all the other pieces are back in play too? Hence it wouldn’t surprise me, if interest rates were to come back under political control, if the BoE then got banking regulation back. Otherwise, what the BoE for?
I don’t see how the Queen can step in. That would be taking a stance on Gordon’s suitability to lead us through the economic crisis, which is out of her remit. If the whole banking system collapses, it might begin to become feasible, but not until then.
Ah, so it’s an angle-brackets site is it?
Meetings as Theatre - that captures Brown’s governing style so well.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2203651/meetings-as-theatre.thtml
331 - fwiw, completely agree with you. Still trying to get my head around why it’s taking these stupid f*ck*rs *so damn’d long* to just bite the bullet and do it.
she could dismiss him and appoint Cameron leader. it is within convention.
Strange bahavior at SPIN. They just upped the Obama EV buy price to 320, then suspended the market.
Hmmmm….
US Election: SUSA has Obama 15 points ahead in PA:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b99d60cb-3369-47bd-887f-85bae65d2a31
I guess that’s another state where McCain will be pulling out his campaign.
335 - Look around you - Brown isn’t fit to lead us through an economic crisis. A year since NR to plan and organise contingency. What’s happened? Nothing.
Why wait for the entire system to collapse? Does the Monarch not have some responsibility towards her subjects and nation?
And a report of Obama having a 14 point advantage among likely voters in Minnesota (54 percent to 40 percent)
GB good for a crisis…dont make me laugh..
What’s Nick Robinson suggesting here…?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
343 Detail:
http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/cspg/pdf/HHH_MPR_October_President.pdf
Seems to have been a cascade of “Don’t knows” to Obama.
247. We are entering a national crisis, akin to a war. People rally around the government in those circumstances, especially if the Opposition are a bunch of preposterous lightweights…
by RodCrosby October 7th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
So why weren’t the governments reelected in 1974 and 1979?
342. I agree that Brown can’t hack it. But that has to be for the country to find out. Votes of confidence can be held in the HoC first. If he tried to hang on after that it would be acceptable for her to intervene.
On the global financial crisis, I expect the SNP to point out during the Glenrothes by election that Ireland is offering greater comfort to its savers than the Bank of England.
That coupled with the timing of the SNP conference ought to be sufficient for the SNP to win Glenrothes, particularly given that they hold the similar Holyrood seat.
I note the odds are drifting against the SNP (2/7 with William Hill now) but that should be good news for those who foresee an SNP gain here-as I certainly do.
Time to wheel out Pte Frazer.We’re doomed I tell thee, Dooooooomed!!
253 An economic crisis is not akin to a war.
People tend to blame the other country for the war, they blame the Government for the economy.
Unless it’s a rubbish war like Iraq, when the blame the Government for that too!
346 It was pretty safe for Obama anyway, Mark. I guess we can safely put it in the safe column now.
348 - Fair enough. Let’s have that vote or a GE.
Gallup tracker - Obama 9 point lead.
Are we seeing the personal attacks on Obama backfire?
Are millions of Americans turned off McCain and Palin’s smear tactics?
Bring a suitcase to work
338. What is bad is that every day of chaos they allow is probably thousands of jobs (if not tens of thousands) going down the tubes as banks cut credit to every firm that is slightly dodgy, but still has cash. In some ways, the crisis is contained - after all we know that RBS, HBOS cannot be allowed to default on their deposits (think of the carnage amongst corporations), but in real economy terms it is doing huge amounts of damage.
The Treasury lacks experience and is probably loath to see such a huge potential liability. The FSA are wazzocks. Darling is useless. Brown is showing his dithering persona to the full. And boy do they spin. Let’s hope they can get something right for a change.
353. The vote should be held. But if it fails, as it very well may, Brown’s spinners can claim a new mandate. There’ll be worse moments for the govt in the months to come when the vote might have a better chance of success.
352 Looks like McCain is down to holding Ohio then…
Gallup Tracker
Obama 51 (up one)
McCain 42 (no change)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111004/Gallup-Daily-9Point-Obama-Lead-Ties-Campaign-High.aspx
Note about other trackers, Gallup and Rasmussen have always been the ones to look at, all the others are incredibly small sample sizes and so open to exaggerated fluctuations.
Very good to see Rasmussen doubling their polling sizes for (all?) state polling too, the number who use a 500 sample size is crazy, with such a large margin of error in a tight race they may as well just not bother.
Ben Bernanke live on CNN - with inset of a live feed from the Dow. Let’s see if he can do any better than our own Badger.
The charlie at 275 isn’t me.
354 It was actually a bit of a mixed bag of results today, Johnboy, with one or two crumbs of comfort for McCain backers. (Jan of Norway suggested his man might be ahead by Saturday, but I think he was joking.
)
The State polls tend to lag the Nationals, which were showing some definite signs of a turn around, but the two big trackers - Rasmussen and Gallup - seem to be locked on their metalled ways.
Mason-Dixon poll Florida
Obama 48
McCain 46
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081007_Florida_Mason-Dixon.pdf
360- Not very good reaction for now… the Dow is still under 9800
Dow down 204…..208….211…..224
347. Well, but for oddities in the electoral system, Ted Heath would have been re-elected in 1974, and 1979 was a lot closer than the polls suggested. It was the unions that did for Jim Callaghan, not the economy…
picture
357 As a unionist I would normally like to see Labour scrape home as winners in Glenrothes to take the wind out of Salmonds sails, but for the shorter term health of the UK I am hoping for an unreasonably large swing to the SNP, a horrendous defeat for Labour after Gordon Brown personally intervenes in the campaign.
Don’t care if a new leader gets a bounce and the Tories hopes are damaged. Just please let’s get Brown out of number 10.
362 - The Diageo tracker movement is understandable when you look at the other questions, they put McCain equal with Obama on the economy which goes against every other poll. Now either McCain has suddenly gained economic kudos or the daily sample is skewed.
367. Weird, “picture” seemed to get bounced when the word was inserted into post 366, but was OK on its own…
Very gloomy speech by Bernanke - “The heightened financial turmoil that we have experienced of late may well lengthen the period of weak economic performance and further increase the risks to growth”
Dow down 225…..231…235….246….255
O/T but we all seem to be.
A number of LibDem posters have attacked Cameron and Osborne for their perceived inconsistency over nationalisation of NR and support for bank recapitalisation. Comment Central point to an inconsistency over an even shorter time period by Vince Cable on BoE independence.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/10/following-the-s.html
views Mark, Dan etc?
Helicopter Bens soothing words fail to sooth
DOW = -260
366 Err yeah but you can’t divorce the Unions from the Economy. True the Red Robbos would always giant sums but the reason many of the others came out was the rocketing inflation of the era.
It seems that whenever any of the players in this crisis stand up and say some soothing words, the markets stand back and say “You haven’t a clue how to fix this, have you?”
374- Still way up yesterday’s low (9500).
Will the 2 candidates have the courage to say something about their proposed solutions to the crisis in tonight’s debate.
They completely failed to do so in the first debate (and the VPs were not better).
It’s time for Obama and McCain to stop the cliches (I will scream the next time one of them blames Wall street and praises Main street) and show that they have at least an anlysis of the situation…
Skimming the last two threads, I’m confused - people berating the government for not saying enough in yesterday’s statement, and now for saying too much so the markets reacted. So far as I’m aware, ministers haven’t said anything specific yet on what will be done and basnk capital, and they’re right not to.
The position as far as I can see in Westminster is that:
- All political parties were briefed on Friday by the Bank governor that recapitalisation measures were under consideration, with few if any details
- This was leaked (as Red Box says, not by the government) and market speculators are reacting to it
- There is likely to be an announcement shortly
The Government doesn’t have a responsibility to maintain share prices: it has a responsibility to try to stabilise the banking system, and to avoid further savings disruption, insofar as is possible in the current world conditions. If they need longer to do that, they should take it, and they should not issue a statement on what they will do until it’s been fully prepared: that’s not hesitation, it’s being careful. People can speculate in the shares if they want - it’s not the main issue, and the market traders on this site may inadvertently be giving that aspect excessive weight.
I’d suggest that events in Iceland are going to cause huge difficulty for internet banking operations. People are going to want to know they have a physical building they can stand outside and demand their money back. Which in turn is going to be bad news for banking costs.
Have any of the rival news stations started making an issue of Peston yet? If he has misrepresented what happened at this meeting yesterday then that is more serious than Gilligan’s supposed misdemeanours with David Kelly isn’t it? (even if you accept the official version).
On tonight’s debate, this could be the clincher. McCain appears incensed and may blow up, he may accuse, or insinuate, that Obama is a terrorist sympathiser or something. On the other hand Obama faces the choice of attack back in the debate or remain calm and even give some of his oratorically uplifting message.
I tend to think that McCain will insinuate and that Obama will remain calm and hopeful but you never know.
I don’t know if people have noticed but McCain’s campaign is even further into the gutter with supporters at their rallies shouting racial slurs and advocating violent attack etc.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/mccain-does-nothing-as-cr_n_132366.html
What sort of world we would have if this type of politics prevails?
I notice Peston’s blog hasn’t been updated since 10am this morning.
378- Nick
Anyway the markets closely follow each other. It’s highly unlikely that the Footsie would rally tomorrow after a big slide in the Dow happening after London closed…
Govt poised to announce rescue package for banking system - BBC
378 - Mr Palmer, you suggest that stabilisation of the banking system is the Governments responsibility. So why the inaction and paralysis today? And how does the continual leak of information from the Treasury to Robert Peston and other stooges, fit in with this remit?
Nick Palmer if it takes the crew longer to work out how to bail out the sinking boat, then they should take it? They shouldn’t tell the passengers until they are ready, even if the water is washing around the promenade deck.
And you think the government deserves out support.
381- Ukpaul
The Obama campaign plans to release a 12 minutes tape about the Keating 5 case, a case in which McCain was cleared 20 years ago.
Is that high-minded politics?
Both campaigns are playing VERY dirty, the last month will be ugly.
(once again, I support Obama, but one-sided criticism is just not right)
135/369 Chris(B) ukpaul. Apologies for the delay Chris I’m working hard on the first ARSE (BUTT) tracker to be released around 8.00pm.
The main reason for the Diageo tracker narrowing so much over one day is that they’ve changed the party id to only Dem +2.
Tuesday, 7 October 2008
Glenrothes - Labour campaign starts with a blunder
The campaign to fill the casual vacancy in Glenrothes will be announced in the House of Commons today.
Not wishing to be left behind, Labour’s headteacher candidate, Lindsay Roy, marched his troops straight into the bus station to start leafleting. Shortly after, suffering a rejection reaction, Labour troops marched off into Postgate to campaign there.
Trouble is, as all of us know, party political campaigning isn’t allowed in Postgate and security soon appeared and frogmarched Labour’s campaign right off the premises.
Gaffe early, gaffe often appears to be Labour’s campaign slogan these days.
http://calumcashley.blogspot.com/
Announcement tomorrow morning on banking crisis, Darling to speak in half an hour….
388- Thanks a lot Jack.
Rescue package to be released tomorrow morning before LSE opens. Will it stop the slide? Doubt it. More like pouring petrol on the flames!
388 - I noticed, how do they square that when even Rasmussen has a difference of three times that? Very strange.
CH4: All banks to be partially-nationalised….
394 - What? Even HSBC?
378
If the Government ewcognises it has a responsibility to stabilise the banking system, it is doing a great job of hiding its awareness..
Actions speak louder than words.. all we see is hurried panics and NO forethought. Ans what action? Last minute stuff at the dge of a precipice…
It’s rather late: I expect the banking system as we know it will no longer survive in its current form post 2008.
GWU/Battleground:
Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 43 (nc)
http://www.tarrance.com/files/2-way-ballot-trender-10-6.pdf
394. I presume British-owned…
So the Govt have got themselves some very cheap bank shares, courtesy of their stooges feeding (mis)information into the markets to destabilise them….
No conflicts there then!
So, Lloyds, HBOS (deal off?), RBOS and Barclays? Are there any others?
393 ukpaul. Indeed. Of course Diageo is also more liable to sharp one day movements because of the low daily sample that may throw up a significant outlier from time to time.
399 - Did RBS ever reveal who was responsible for the “two very large trades” this morning?
316.
“The Queen should step in.”
Isn’t that what Tony Blair suggested to Gordon?
394. How many Building Societies are still mutuals?
It might be time to move my accounts.
Methinks a national government and AV just got a step closer…
395
Will anyones money will be worth the paper its printed on???, this is madness.
405 - Do you ever give your obsession with AV a rest?
Re: new UK bank rescue plan, Crosby in another “scoop” - he is now officially being drip-dripped with info so that the govt occupies the agenda and the Tories look like nambies on the economy…
Net net, if Brown controls the agenda, he like Bernanke can restore his credibility if it’s all sorted by mid-09.
Definitely worth selling Tory seats now.
Dow Jones not really responding to Bush’s speech! Probably trying to work out what he’s saying
Sorry Tyson but I am afraid I had to let Redwood out of the wardrobe.
http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/
388 “The main reason for the Diageo tracker narrowing so much over one day is that they’ve changed the party id to only Dem +2.”
That looks to be such blatant manipulation to try and change the narrative, that they should be excluded from all rational discussion of the state of the Presidential race.
405 You think a load of bullsh*t.
PM and/or Chancellor to speak in Downing Street shortly…
404. All Building Societies are by definition mutuals. They are also required by regulation to fund a large proportion of their lending through deposits. If you’re looking for a national one whose lending had a particularly low wholesale-funded proportion, I believe the Yorkshire B.S. would fit the bill. I am a bit biased on this as I work for them, but I do save there as well.
@378. The share price is important only insofaras it feeds into models of default risk. The catastrophic falls today mean that most models will be suggesting failure. Risk managers at other financial institutions will be cutting credit lines to those banks whose shares fell dramatically. It will also make individuals nervous. In some ways these are containable - after all the government isnt going to let major institutions like HBOS or RBS default on their deposits. But, every day that passes bring a higher risk that a major bank will find itself unable to access the money markets sufficiently and with a major shortfall in funds, even with the Bank of England pumping in liquidity. Every day does actually matter, as ever more longer term paper needs to be rolled over and ends up being rolled over as overnight money.
What makes the intelligent commentators angry is the non-statement by Darling yesterday - we are past the point where platitudes will help, the idiotic insistence on the 98% figure and the lack of tangible action. Every time a story about potential action leaks out though it adds fuel to the fire of speculation.
I would hope that something does appear soon. But, for Gordon to claim he is “the best man for the job” is patently untrue. If he were the best man, he would already have delivered something. Instead he is seen strutting around with a big fat grin on his face posing as a big man.
Yes, we need a complete package. It shouldnt be announced until it is ready (so can we stop having Peston being briefed by the Treasury), and it needs to be done soon. The country is counting on the government to deliver.
Latest Muhlenberg College/Morning Call tracker for Pennsylvania :
McCain 38% .. Obama 48%
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release10-07.pdf
405. I suggested on here several days ago that a national government may be a possibility. I was roundly accused of talking rubbish. I wonder if people are quite so conficent now?
Not sure what a national government has got to do with AV though? You do see a bit obsessed about AV Rod.
BBCi “The UK government is poised to announce details of a comprehensive rescue package for the banking system, the BBC’s business editor has learned.”
Note the last phrase - that is use by BBC reporters when they have been briefed by aGovernment spokesman. So again Robert Peston is the conduit by which the Treasury communicates.
This will end the government in a world of trouble. 10 x Black Wednesday and the Chancellor and PM are completely out of their depth.