Was Purnell’s speech too good for his own good?
September 28th, 2008
Is this the man the Gord Gang is most worried about?
Whenever party leaders are changed, it appears, the main selection criteria, it would appear, is for someone with the qualities that the outgoing person appears to lack. Look at Blair to Brown or Ming to Nick Clegg to get the general idea.
And of the limited array of talent on parade at the Labour conference last week the potential leader who appeared to do best with his speech was James Purnell - the 38 year old ex-public school boy who is now the Work and Pensions Secretary. He’s English, he’s young and he communicates well.
Maybe that’s the reason that, according to the Telegraph this morning, he is being viewed by the Number 10 as the one behind the whole botch-up of Ruth Kelly’s resignation announcement.
The report goes on quoting a Purnell supporter : ‘There have been poisonous briefings. James has been very successful in his job and for whatever reason there has been a concerted attempt to damage him and to slag him off. This has also happened to other people so it is no surprise.’ Some Labour MPs believe Mr Purnell, 38, is being targeted in an attempt to stop him emerging as the leading Blairite challenger to Mr Brown after David Miliband’s stock fell dramatically in Manchester last week.”
Several leading commentators this morning have biting attacks on how Gang Gord is operating at the moment and the real danger, surely, is that their activities could undermine the generally better coverage that the the prime minister is getting. Just read Nick Cohen in the Observer or John Rentoul in the Indy on Sunday.
The best Purnell price in the Next Labour Leader betting is 12/1. I think this is quite a good long-term bet whether Gord goes before the general election or after.
Mike Smithson
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He always stirkes me as someone out of a 70s sitcom. What’s with that hair?
He is another nobody for me. Doesn’t register either way good/bad. yawn.
Outside chance to lose his seat?
Before an election, “no time for a novice” has made it hard for everyone except Jack Straw and Harriet Harman, or maybe one of the backbench eminences grises.
After an election, I agree that James Purnell might be a good bet.
It’s ridiculous if Gordon Brown’s team is briefing to damage James Purnell. Eagles should not strain at gnats.
3 - “no time for a novice” is only a negative for anyone trying to challenge Gordon. If he goes first then it wouldn’t be a problem.
1
Well he can’t be that bad, Gove has invited Purnell to join Cameron’s cabinet.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/sep/28/michaelgove.conservatives
5 no, he hasn’t
5. What naivete.
After receiving some praise in this week’s The Economist I have the annoyance of a niggling doubt for the future of one cabinet minister, a Mr John Hutton. Harping back to past threads, this is one Labour MP who could happily cross-the-floor, and sup with Cameron and Osbourne.
Good-luck to the man I say…!
4 - Labour has gone for the obvious choice of leader every time since Michael Foot. David Miliband has made himself unobvious this week, but James Purnell has far too much ground to make up before an election to become obvious. Against that background, Gordon Brown’s line will reinforce a latent Labour party tendency.
9 - but there is no “obvious” choice. If there was then Gordon would be in a lot more trouble.
Jack Straw, the only “obvious choice” candidate will only do it if given to him uncontested.
It isn’t just Brown thats worried about, ‘challengers’
Boris won’t be the ‘warm-up guy’
Tory officials are trying to keep a lid on the rivalry between David Cameron and Boris Johnson, it emerged last night. A behind-the-scenes row erupted between the offices of the Tory leader and the London Mayor over the timing of Mr Johnson’s speech, according to insiders.
Mr Johnson had been pencilled in to be the Tory leader’s “warm-up guy” on Wednesday, but was shunted to a less high-profile slot today, said a source.
Officials feared the popularity of the London Mayor could compare unfavourably with the Tory leader. And with Mr Cameron adopting a more sombre tone – addressing activists from a lectern rather than walking about the stage with no notes – Mr Johnson’s appearance would jar with the mood, say officials.
There was even a rumour that Mr Johnson’s conference pass will be deactivated on Monday, following his speech.
10 - That is Labour’s big problem right now, summed up in three sentences.
#11, so BoJo is to front the Wessex-wing of the Tory party…?
13
Where do I sign Up?
#14 Brum’, this afternoon…!
11 Coldstone that is from the Brown school of journalism which has become popular in the last few days, trying to spin simple stuff into drama for the Tories.
Or in desperation when that fails the School principal will give another masterclass in misquotes and lies.
NB He calls his lies statistics.
With Alistair Campbell, Charlie Whelan, Derek Draper and McBride all now in the Gord Gang and stirring the pot on behalf of Brown I expect that any potential challenger or discordant voice will find themselves briefed against.
Brown suffered a loss of party discipline from April, with the Budget being re-written at command of Labour dissidents and increasing briefings against his leadership - this is his response and it will not be pretty.
Not sure where the “James Purnell was behind the Ruth Kelly leak” story comes from but like almost all of the press speculation with regards to this story it is simply wrong. It is very unlikely that No 10 is briefing this more likely a punt on the part of a journalist, though given some of the behaviour from those claiming to speak on behalf of No 10 in recent times it is not surprising that this sort of guff appears.
James Purnell has little chance of winning any leadership election in the Labour Party in the near future. Anyone who carries the label “Blairite” stands little chance in such an election whether it is held before or after the next election. The only scenario I could think of where he might have a chance is if, by some miracle, Labour wins with GB as leader at the next election. Brown has clearly intimated he would stand down before the end of a full term and if James Purnell had been a star of that administration then clearly he would be in with a chance. However this is speculation piled upon speculation and a very remote possibility more like 500:1 than 12:1
Meanwhile, a Sunday Telegraph poll suggests the Tory lead over Labour has been halved over the past month.
Source; http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7640179.stm
So the BBC only report polls that are the antithesis of the Mike Smithson rule. What a farce the public-sector has become in this last decade or so…!
16
It’s actually from the Independent, which also ran this.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/jesse-norman-labours-claim-to-fairness-is-flawed-944631.html
I’m sure this will be more to your taste, its obviously the unvarnished truth. In fact I was so overcome with its honesty, I burst into tears and thanked God, that my destiny will soon be in the hands of such wonderful people as the author.
20 Coldstone, are you competing with Wage Slave for the acclaim as PB’s greatest cynic?
11 link please coldstone. That is some seriously shoddy reporting. The boris pass deactivated is a bloody JOKE from the latest Tamzin Lightwater column.
21
You mean I’ve got competition!!
Andrew Marr is at last testing Cameron on policy and Cameron isn’t doing well! It’s joy to behold!
I hope Labour’s PR people are noticing how easily he loses his cool and waffles
23
11 - Coldstone, keep passing on the ‘Black Ops’ tittle tattle from your masters in No. 10. It’s nice to have a bit of light entertainment occasionally - lifts the spirits!
Electorally it makes no difference - the voters know full well that one party and one person are largely responsible for ‘Broken Britain’ and the trashed Economy.
Gordon Brown and (New) Labour are toast.
24. You must be watching a different programme from me.I think he sounds good despite Marr constantly interrupting as he answers how crap labour has been and how he will try tofix.
From yesterday’s peston blog - I am bored…!
9. At 10:31pm on 27 Sep 2008, wykhamist wrote:
It’s all very well for the govt to wipe BB under the carpet and pretend that everything will be fine for savers.
But what will happen when one of the big banks such as Barclays finds itself in a similar position in a couple of weeks’ time.
I don’t see Barclay’s being in trouble anytime soon. They weren’t the muppets who tried to out-bid everyone for ABN-Amro just shy of financial melt-down.
So who will Gordoom ask the rescue RBS…?
“I hope Labour’s PR people are noticing…”
You mean you’re not one of them?!
Maybe your Dutch friends could get a job, too.
28. RBS will be hoping that US bailout goes through and allows them to dump majority of their bad debt,will most likely save their bacon.
27 - I think Rogers’ butler may have put too much vodka in the breakfast Bloody Mary!
24. How many people you think are watching though and how many are interested in changing their minds?
Thats why I rarely watch that kinda stuff. It more often than not doesnt impact with the mass of voters.
Anyway,off for a run in shining Belfast sun.
Cameron has just sais that he is not prepared to write George Osborne’s 2010 budget today. Has he made such a public commitment before towards Osborne as his first Chancellor? I’ve backed Osborne for next Chancellor at 15/8 so I’m encouraged by this remark.
All the polling evidence thus far is that DC on TV boosts Tory polling. Not seen anything this morning to doubt this will continue
Cameron is doing OK this morning - actually he is doing well, the weakness is around (for me) the fiscal regualtory body - it lacks teeth and that will be how it is attacked.
26
I’m not disputing the fact, (it would be foolish to do so) that the present government holds more than its fair share of responsibility for the present situation.
The government’s failure to correct the excesses of the eighties,led to the problems we have today. They are result of the, ‘Greed is Good’ culture that developed then.
When Labour loses the next GE, the real battle will then be on the , ‘Right’ between those who will want to reverse Thatcher’s reforms, and those who wish to protect and extend them.
I await that battle with much anticipation!
Just a thought, but the cost for decommissioning current UK nuclear power stations is estimated at £74billion over 130 years. Now how much has the UK tax-payer spent on two-failed Northern, Labour-heartland “banks” in the past year…?
Nuclear-power, you’se knows it makes sense. [Just ask Gordoom Brown's borther...!]
Marr and Naughtie both interrupt Cameron all the time but sit in awed silence when praising- sorry- interviewing the Great Leader.
39. Marr is a disgrace , he is constantly butting in, Cameron is handling well.
35 - It’s funny how Lickspittle Marr is unable to find the interrupt button when interviewing Gordon and Co.
Cameron is doing well - personally, I would have landed one on Jug Ears by now, for being so bloody rude and not listening to what the interviewee is saying!
That’s not the point Yokel. What is relevant is that before he’s elected the majority of the public will see him closely.
Blair had charm and Brown has gravitas (of sorts). Cameron is without both and he wont get to an election without this becoming known.
32. Yokel. The way these interviews transmit to the public is through the impression they make on the media/journalists who then shape public opinion through their reporting.
Cameron doing very well. He’s in a different league to Brown and the best communicator of his generation. The heir to Blair.
41 - “Blair had charm and Brown has gravitas (of sorts). Cameron is without both and he wont get to an election without this becoming known.”
What an extraordinarily silly thing to say.
Can we have the detailed results from your Dutch focus group, Roger?
I was listening to an American radio station last night on the net and some commentator made the point that it is not light or heavy regulation of the markets which is the issue, it is effective regulation.
What he said about the US position matches the tripartite paralysis Brown created exactly. An article in the Telegraph this morning points out that it was not so much light regulation as pretend regulation in the UK.
However you cut it, however he blows smoke to hide behind, it always comes back to ten years of flim flam from the Dour Ditherer.
Ha ha - Cameron has taken over Marr’s show!
Thought that was a very solid performance from Cameron.
Has just said he’s up for leaders debate.
Stjohn, IMHO think Osborne has always been nailed on as Cameron’s first Chancellor. 15/8 great price if you think Darling stays to election.
… and I don’t think changing the occupant of No 11 in the forseeable future would send a good signal to the markets during the current economic turmoil.
Cameron’s body language spoke volumes - backed turned to Toad Marr and engaging with Platell and Aaronovitch who seemed a little star struck to me, lol
You know, I’m sure at least some of my foreign friends think Labour’s ID cards are a bad idea — but I don’t post their anecdotal opinions of UK politics here because that would be desperate, pathetic and pointless.
I thought David Cameron as usual looked very convincing indeed. He comes across as highly intelligent, human, even warm.
I was most struck by how clearly he understands how poorly politicians of all stripes are thought of. The constant theme of setting out how he proposes that his Government should be held to account is very smart indeed.
47 I agree DC and once we’re within 12 months of an election, were Brown to junk Darling, this would give the impression of his having failed.
Of course, were Brown himself to be replaced next summer, then all bets are off.
B&B natioanlisation is 1/9th the US government bail out plan. B&B is UKs 8th largest bank, US plan appears to allow overseas companies to detoxify…. soemthing does not compute, the US plan is not big enough
Double Carpet and others. I don’t think Brown will replace Darling. But I rate Brown being replaced before the next election at about 4/6 which is my concern for my Osborne bet. Do we think Straw/Miliband/Harman would in all likelihood replace Darling as Chancellor?
This is almost hilarious. I can only compare the ‘Cameroons’ on here with the screaming hysterical girls who used to faint on the front row of Beatles concerts before being carried off by St John’s Ambulance men.
53
It will be Balls if Darling goes, or if not I could see Gordon deciding to combine both jobs. He IS crazy enough to consider it.
Is Draper paying you overtime for all this, Roger?
I mean, c’mon, for heaven’s sake — “My Dutch friends, who have nothing better to do than watch opposition leaders of foreign countries, don’t like Cameron [so he'll lose the next election]” — desperate even by your standards.
Sunday Morning Greetings Campers !!
DC pretty solid on the Marr show. Tory cheerleaders should note if DC can’t stand up to scrutiny in an easy atmosphere like Marr’s then Cammy doesn’t deserve to be PM.
Meanwhile …. Gallup/USA Today poll for the debate shows Obama winning 46/34 much in line with the CBS and CNN polls :
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/09/usatgallup-poll.html
54 So Roger didn’t think the Beatles were any good either! Bad judgement over several decades then.
MTF. Do you mean it will be Balls if Brown goes? I think he would be a terrible choice.
(At least when I rebut ID cards I actually make proper points not parrot Labour horsedung.)
54 - For God’s sake Roger! I’m no Cameroon (I voted Labour last three times), but if you call Cameron charmless you simply sound silly. His whole (so far rather effective) schtick is ‘catch me, aren’t I fluffy?’. That’s what explains his poll ratings, which you seem determined to ignore. If you can’t see it one can only presume you’re blinded by, with respect, somewhat infantile prejudice. I don’t mean to insult you, but really!!
60 Terrible decisions are not unknown by the “great leader”
54 - i didn’t realise that antifrank and stjohn were Cameroons. Apologies.
62. I’d say you were flattering him
#54, as someone who shares a Christian-name with the great footballer Mr Weir, I am taking your comments as offensive. Since when has the Tory party ever entered a FIFA World-Cup…?
[Ok, now call this the worst post ever on PB, and hurl abuse. Water, back and a duck come to mind. Have you ever read your drivel...?]
Where is the sixth-form politics student - Charlie - when Roger needs moral and intellectual support? Or are they one-and-the-same…?
54 But all the available polling evidence, as Mike has constantly reiterated, suggests that the public at large are impressed by Cameron. You think they’re wrong in that judgement, but it’s futile to deny that that is their judgement.
54 & 59 - So Rogerdamus is Dick Rowe. Makes sense.
67. Tsk - what is the judgement of millions of ordinary people against that of Roger?
54. I’ll do my fainting Cameroon impression and predict that at the next election Cameron will win more votes than Blair did in 1997.
58. I listened to it yesterday and I thought McCain lost it comfortably. His getting stuck on ‘Ahmadinejad’ though par for the course having got used to Bush still sounded awful.
57. Horse. My Dutch friens weren”t particularly interested until he started on his ‘tax breaks for marriage’ after which they listened and didn’t like anything they saw or heard.
I was also struck as were many other posters by how Marr kept interrupting and changing tack when DC tried to get into a cohesive argument.
The bit where Marr berated DC because the Tories had argued for the last 4 years for less regulation was wide of the mark because it is Business regulation that the Tories have been talking about not financial.
It is quite obvious that the Labour machinery has decided to launch an “Ardennes” offensive against the Tories by reverting to the only thing they have been any good at over the past 11 years…spin.
71
Well Roger, no votes for Cameron in Holland then! What a crushing blow for Cameron.
71 Roger, when in a hole, stop digging
Cameron did well. Sounded reasonable and plausible. Hes a great TV performer.
Political tectonic plates convulse — Tory tax breaks for marriage proposal not popular among handful of Low Countries voters!!!
I must ask my New York friends next week what they make of the ID cards’ blue-and-pink colour scheme…
Voxpop. Ex-Stretford-Ender. Tell me Cameron has charm and I wont post again to-day
…can I report their opinions here and expect everybody to pay attention to them?
76
Go on Voxpop….
Roger lives in Nether Nether Land:)
Andrew Marr, who was as quiet as a mouse when grovelling, sorry interviewing our Great Leader last week, roared like the rat he is when confronting DC.
Still, I think DC did quite well considering that he was under an almost unceasing barrage from the Marr, who jerked and gesticulated like a Jack-in-the-box.
Scampi - are you implying he is obsessed with his nether regions?
And by the way Roger, why would a Brown supporter seem to assume that an Obama win will be good for him?
The telling moment of Marr’s anti-Tory stance was when he thought he had a Grieve quote that contradicted what Cameron had just said. With childish glee, he plunged down to grasp the paper, and attack Cameron!
Only the quote fell far short and turned out to be meaningless.
Don’t normally watch Marr, as he’s a buffoon. Cameron generally did well, some solid attacks on Brown (though no reference to the Age of Irresponsibility, as yet).
Didn’t see his Brown interview/verbal massage, but I’d've bet that he didn’t have ONS figures disputing the Supreme Leader’s repeated claim that we have lower debt than 1997 because Northern Rock doesn’t count.
80 Agree, Marr’s style was so obviously switched from “deference” to “dislike” mode this week.
He also said that in the latest poll the Tory VOTE had halved. I think the word you were seeking was “LEAD”, Mr. Marr. Muppet.
83 Marr didn’t confront Brown about PFI either. He is such a Labour tool….
76 Charm is a hugely overrated characteristic in a political leader. Idi Amin, Adolf Hitler, Nero, Stalin, and Tony Blair could all be extremely charming, but I wouldn’t want to be governed by any of them.
81. well he does talk a right loada s****!
Marr supports ID cards as well.
How much will foreign nationals have to pay in tax to obtain their special all singing, all dancing ID card from Jackie Smith?
It will not be something which will amuse foreign students, and if Babble and Co think that there is support for yet another payment to HMG. However, given the current mob’s wish to throw more money after bad bankers, any contribution is welcome.
I thought Cameron handled the interview very well indeed. Marr was far more probing than when he interviewed Brown the week before but that is to Camerons benefit really as it enables him to come over as a consumate performer.
I am becoming more and more convinced by Cameron as a PM in waiting. He is losing that lightweight persona. He still has some way to go. This week will be interesting.
As Jack W wisely pointed out, if David Cameron couldn’t perform well under scrutiny, he wouldn’t deserve to be Prime Minister.
Am I a Cameroon? If I had the Tory approved views on the EU, I probably would be. He’s the most accomplished British politician that we’ve seen in many years and we haven’t seen his full potential yet.
Just watched Jools Holland on catch up. For those sad fools who slobber over Caroline Flint, you should watch Katy Perry’s performance of “I kissed a girl”. The real deal!
86. Charm isn’t always important though I’m sure it got Blair elected. The only Tory leader in my memory that I might have voted for was Ted Heath. By no means charming but someone with a soul. Infact exactly the opposite of a Thatcher or a Cameron.
93. Oh dear - still stuck in those nether regions….
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2007/12/car_crash_radio.html
I wonder if Derek Draper’s army of hackers will be gracing us with their presence and ‘Master’s voice’ anytime soon ?
93 It may seem odd, but I think IDS has a “soul”. But you never got a chance to vote for him in a GE, because he was just crap as a leader. Seems to have found his metier now though on social issues. Good luck to him with that.
41/42. Two Labour guys I believe with two different views.
All I know is Cameron, in terms of presentation is way better than Brown. He also has more scope to learn than Brown.
93 My favourite comment about Heath was from one journalist who said “When Mr. Heath makes a joke, it’s no laughing matter.”
93 - It’ll be interesting to see the extent to which Cabinet ministers fight back this time against the reinstallation of Downing Street control circa 1997-2003. Hints in the papers suggest they will be reluctant to take it from an obvious vote loser.
98. Very Good!!
Although the lefty bias of journalist interviewers can be irritating, I imagine it’s been good training for DC in keeping his cool, which he does so very well, even to Kay Birley on Sky… “But you’re a toff”.
93
Your memory seems to be very short or maybe just selective,according to someone who used to know you professionaly ,you were an ardent Thatcher fan,so much so that you apparently bored people to tears with your rants in support of her.
I am assuming that there is only one Millfield educated public school boy called Roger Alexander who makes budget TV commercials for women’s sanitary wear and dog food?
95 That exchange shows what we are going to get from the Gord Gang - its all about attack, which fits with Gordon’s preferred method. We will have more Sarah Brown, professional PR, to try to stoke the sympathy vote for poor Gordon ( with briefings about how Gordon is a private person and doesn’t want to expose his personal life) while his pack go round in the background tearing into Labour dissenters, possible challengers and recycle old stuff on Conservatives and Lib Dems.
102
Roger… a Maggie Thatcher Fan.. he he he he he!
I thought Cameron did well on Marr’s show this morning. He showed he has the policies for the current economic situtation - depositor protection plus Bank of England assistance for struggling banks - it’s just a matter of communicating it to all and sundry over the next few days.
Just watching Caroline Spelman on BBC Parliament and she is a really an awful public speaker.
O/T will there be a thread on today’s Austrian election?
West Yorkshire is now facing a further bad blow with the loss of Bradford and Bingley, after the earlier loss of the Halifax.
If indeed the job losses from HBoS are to be concentrated in Yorkshire, as opposed to Scotland, then Labour is facing a poisonous problem in West Yorkshire.
At the very least, the West Yorkshire Labour MPs have been a good deal less effective than Scottish MPs in protecting their local patch. There must be a real possibility of above average swings in some of these West Yorkshire seats.
106 - I agree. They should really get rid of Spelman (especially with all that baggage) she is just not up to it.
O/T 538.com is now showing Obama as winning 318 ECVs, an increase of 40 votes over just the past 10 days, compared with McCain’s 220 votes.
They are now showing Florida as being tied. If Chips loses this state he’s toast, no butties about it.
I’ll just get me coat.
108 From Labour’s point of view, job losses in West Yorkshire are terrible news, as they hold at least 10 marginal seats there.
Marr did not lay a finger on DC despite jug ears increasingly desperate efforts and much interuption..(I think AM probably had that odious toad Draper on an earpiece).
Thought Osborne stood up well (though not as well) to the much more impressive Boulton…
All those lefties (including in the media) trying to big up the modest Brown poll boost after a month of “Fightback 17″ and ignoring the obvious but well documented impact of conference boosts (particulalry on the relevance of the economy polls)..should make hay while the sun shines…you have approximately 4 days of delusional, wishful thinking to go.
O/T, but an*l-ecstasy appears to be a moderation key-word.
Sorry Roger, but you won’t read my response to your musings. Thanks Mike, Morus, et. al. …!
108 - Well it’s not really there fault. How many West Yorkshire MPs are in the cabinet?
their
103. Maybe him and his fugly wife could tell us how private they are in a double page spread in the Mail on Sunday, with his two children for us all to see.
102
That is just hilarious.
Gwynfa if there are very few job losses in Scotland and a massive redundancy programme in Yorkshire Labour and its Scottish leaders are
91. But what are Tory approved views on the EU? They range quite a lot, yes, there is a large body of people who just want to leave, but thats largely due to being fed up and frustrated by how the EU works, not because they oppose european wide co-operation on trade, environment etc etc
118 in the poo all over England and Wales.
halifax news
Note to self - comments box is not a google search engine.
119, sticking to the referendum on Lisbon.
If the other main parties weren’t so damn wretched we wouldn’t've had to rely on the Irish (who are wondrous) to deliver us from that evil.
111 The job losses are bad enough … but the accusation that Labour gave preference to Edinburgh over W. Yorkshire (if true and substantiated) must surely be toxic.
Anyhow, if it leads to an above average swing in the Morley and Outwood consituency, I will be buying myself a magnum of Moet.
#119, sorry Gaz.
No we English hate Europe. How many times have they - and their Scottish fifth column - brought us in to their mess and expended our lives to protect their freedom? Our closest cousins - the Irish - hate us because of the Scot’s plantation of the Border folk, thanks King James IV of subsidy-land!!!
Europe is as popular in England as Gordoom Brown. Get with it…!
B&B is an interesting dilemma. Surely it makes no sense to have two banks/parts of two banks nationalised but operating as independent institutions? Makes far more sense to merge them, which will presumably mean widescale job losses.
124, I think if Balls loses then the pb community’s purchase of alcohol will probably match that of the BBC in 1997:p
123 - have you seen the latest line on that one? Irish no-campaign bankrolled by US Neo-Cons and the CIA, apparently
126, widescale job losses directly at the hands of government? I doubt it.
127 We should have a special pb.com party in Morley.
Perhaps an effigy of Balls could be fired from the famous Morris Dancer cannon?
126 This will take a considerable period to reach definite conclusions about - probably around 20 months or thereabouts.
110. I personally believe its over for McCain barring an all out assault by the GOP that sticks.
That allout assault doesnt look to be there.
127 - I’m sure you have a bottle of the finest Krug chilling already…
129 - well probably not. But if the Govt are serious about returning these institutions to the private sector (at a profit!) then it is the only sensible solution. And you can hardly have two nationalised banks competing with each other, with two sets of highly paid Govt appointed management!
130 “Perhaps an effigy of Balls could be fired from the famous Morris Dancer cannon?”
Just an effigy? Seems like a waste of a shell….
130 Funnily enough such a party was mooted a few months ago by the never now seemingly departed London, London.
107 - Sean yes there definitely will.
Today’s international slot will feature the live results from Austria. Polls close at 4pm UK time so the thread will be up about then.
There will be a flood of results as most villages finish voting lunchtime / early afternoon - indeed some communes have already closed their polls, and the whole of Vorarlberg shuts at noon our time.
This is going to be a fascinating election to watch and likely to be the worst result for the big two since WW2 - and the combined FPO/BZO may approach the Freedom Party’s 27% of 1999.
But if everybody who wants Balls to lose parties in Morley, how will the town cope with seven million visitors?:p
Gwynfa the Lloyds takeover proposal carried several references to Scotland and a promise to protect jobs there. Darling publicly demanded they do so ( he is the constituency MP affected by cuts on The Mound).
Salmond held a pow-wow with old bankers and other politicos to grill the Lloyds representative a week ago and at the end said afterwards he was going to get his way, more or less.
If Lloyds are bullied into putting their HQ for the newly combined bank in Edinburgh that city will then be the home of the majority of all UK retail banking and a significant slice of the market for mortgages.
Why? Because the Scottish politicians are in charge of the UK and England is taken for granted.
That will come back and bite Labour hard in a General Election and is once of the under-the-radar factors.
139 Only seven million want Balls to lose?
Have you been using Gordon Brown’s calculator again.
If you are going to fire Ed Balls into the heart of the sun then don’t forget to strap Hazel Blears to him first.
140 - I love the idea that Lloyds Bank help another bank (and the Govt) out of a hole and are then forced to move their HQ to Scotland? Don’t you think that some of Lloyds senior management might object to that?
#140, is it not time for HM’s Armed Forces to have a Broken Arrow in the Glens-up-north…?
Back on topic, just watched the Purnell speech and thought it was very effective and well delivered. The only problem is that Purnell looks like his tongue is about to shoot out and lick his eye balls. He’s a bit too slimy and lizard like to be a popular leader.
Cameron, like Blair, has always struck me as insincere, which I find infuriating. At least Brown is crap enough at acting for you to know when he is lying. Are Cameron and Blair really charming? I find it difficult to watch them on TV (maybe it’s because I’m Scottish).
O/T Continuous large advertisement appearing on Yahoo’s emailing site this morning:
“Bradford & Bingley ……..Become one of the UK’s top interest earners with your eyes closed”
It’s true, honestly! As a well known Daily Mail columnist would say “You just couldn’t make it up”.
Is Vince Cable the only politician who understands Economics. They guy is a political-God!
103. John F.I have never made a BUDGET commercial in my life nor one for dog food and most importantly of all I have NEVER been a margaret Thatcher fan. So mistaken identity.
138. DC. I have no knowledge of Austrian politics. Canbet offer 3/8 Labor and 2/1 Any Other Party. Any value there?
146 - There was an advert for B&B, advertising generous savings rates during the Grand Prix qualifying yesterday.
#147, sorry I retract that.
That was not “Vince Cable”, but someone else - who spoke great sense - but was labeled so. Has Kay Burley taken over editing Boulton & Co.’s Sunday blog.
[Or has his missus been re-employed as part of the Clunking Cist's Ministry of [Dis-]Information…?]
142 - Don’t diss the Blears. Hazel is a 100% more inspiring and human than Balls.
Ok, now Cable is acting like an arsehole in Sky, then I have to admit that he is a great comedian - Bean, et. al. - but shiite at Economics. Fecking Sweatie…!
152 - Doesn’t make her that inspiring or human!
Stjohn - not sure about Labor (that sounds like Australia or Israel!) - main centre-left party is SPO (Social Democrats).
All the recent polls have put them ahead by 2-3 pts, so I would say they ought to win, so 1.375 may be value.
Hope that helps!!
Stjohn - have looked at the site and it was Australia not Austria!
I had never seen this until Matthew D’ancona mentioned it. It is truly hilarious, sorry to all the scots but it is.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=I4n–IXg6HY
153 - Cable is not Scottish.
155/156. Oops !!!
Alex some of the senior Lloyds managers might object but that is what was in their proposal document. And do not forget that they need the government giving - or so it was said by Darling and Brown - special dispensation to get this merger through the regualtory hurdles. Perhaps special legislation. So they need the government.
I wonder if that is what was holding up the deal. Discussions on the merger had been taking place between the banks for months. Was the hold up the regulator and by bowing to the Scottish demands they got that out of the way.
Do you feel a little of pork barrel politics here?
With luck, though, the EU Commission might throw a spanner in the works.
#158, well he was not born within the Angle-realm of Wessex, and spent most of his time sucking-up to the Sweaties.
Ergo, if he is not a Scootsmun, then he is a scion of the Dane-Law. Where is Coldstone when I need support…?
154 - I know! But in comparison to Balls…
“And by the way Roger, why would a Brown supporter seem to assume that an Obama win will be good for him?”
An interesting point. The one area in Cameron’s very effective Sky interview that worried me was a tendency to sabre rattle over foreign policy, if McCain got in then I would be quite worried about that with a Cameron government, if Obama gets in then I won’t.
The Cameron schools idea is very interesting (lead in the Sunday Times about ‘free schools’), I can see teacher unions hating it but the freedom they would bring is long overdue and, while they may fail, at least it wouldn’t be an institutional failure as we have now.
McConnell is an MSP but has come under pressure to resign his seat before replacing Richard Wildash, who ends his term as our man in Lilongwe in January.
Speculation is rife that his resignation from Holyrood is imminent. A Labour source revealed the leadership is considering holding a snap poll in Motherwell and Wishaw on the same day as the Glenrothes by-election on November 6.
The insider said: “They’re weighing up whether or not the SNP are likely to win Jack’s seat. If they think defeat is on the cards, they will try to wrap up all the bad news on one day while the US elections are still hogging the headlines.”
115 Alex wrote
“Well it’s not really there fault. How many West Yorkshire MPs are in the cabinet? ”
I think Ed Balls, Hillary Benn and Yvette Cooper represent West Yorkshire seats. There are two further Yorkshire MPs in the Cabinet (Johnson and Flint).
How many Yorkshire MPs are needed to have some influence?
165 - dammit Gwynfa, I was on the verge of writing “great offices of state” and switched to “Cabinet” at the last moment…
148
So is there another ex Millfield public school boy called Roger Alexander that makes non budget TV commercials for women’s sanitary ware,but not dog food?
163 - Interesting. When does “sabre rattling” (bad) become “strength and conviction” (good)?
It is far easier to conduct effective foreign policy whilst conveying strength, than the reverse. It is how you act that matters, not what you say. But it is better for other countries not to view you as a soft touch.
168 - The UK will always be secondary to what the US president wishes I feel but I thought the recent Georgia crisis showed the difference well. On the one hand there were those who immediately retreated to a fixed, very public, position and those who gave more general censure followed by behind the scenes work and specifics later. Bush second term has actually been more of the latter rather than the former so it isn’t a party thing, he’s been burned by experience. It’s indicative that, only now, are details emerging of how Biden worked with Saakashvili to reach a solution.
Monster Raving loony Party on Politics show now
170 “Tractors on fields, not on roads!” I’d vote for that…
And free chocolate on the NHS might just prove a winner too.
156 When I lived in Vienna an Austrian friend had a T-Shirt with the slogan
Austria - Land of Kangaroos
Cammo did well on Marr - especially the post-interview love-in with Platell and the fat bloke; Roger has clearly been eating too much of the cat food he used to make adverts for. It would be very surprisng if any early 80’s advertising people weren’t arch-Thatcherites - they were all making so much money from the rescue of the British economy.
165. Sheerman is the chairman of the Education and Skills select commitee, Shahid malhic the Dewsbury MP is a Parliamentary Under-Secretary, Department for International Development (since 28 Jun 2007). A cabinet Minister - Edward Samuel Miliband There is also a regional minister Rosie Winterton, the MP for Doncaster Central.
There are many more as well - Labour have sold out Yorkshire, from the floods last year to the HBOS debacle.
168. I think it’s a matter of judgment. Cameron hasn’t done anything to scare me so far, but he hasn’t yet shown enough nuance to convince me he’s entirely safe.
174 - As long as Gove is kept away from foreign policy and at somewhere like schools would be a good start.
Do you have any evidence of Gove being scary?
As an antidote to Roger’s review of Cameron’s performance on Marr suggest a read of Ben Brogan’s take. “Strong performance by David Cameron on Marr this morning. That might just be me enjoying a politician who gives straight answers … But he sounded calm, stern, in control”
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/09/dave-is-fired-u.html
138 Thanks. I’m looking forward to it. It looks as though the general European shift rightwards will continue in this one.
176 - It depends on your politics but he’s a self confessed neoconservative, a position I feel is naive in its belief that democracy can and should be ’spread’ by power - social democrats with a gun as it were. He believes that Iraq has been a huge success for example.
179. Fair enough. I’d like to see his own words though.
Is this Balls’ Missus on the politics show right now?
Yvette Cooper is lying through her teeth on the Politics show….
181. About what?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7640555.stm
Who was the last cabinet minister to sit for an Irish seat? Edward Carson?
Daily Kos tracker - Obama up 7% - 50:43
http://www.dailykos.com/
178 - yes although the SPO are likely to finish top and may end up leading another Grand Coalition - but we’ll see.
They have become more Euro-sceptic under Faymann, gaining the tabloid backing of Kronen Zeitung - an SPO/FPO coalition might be a possibility.
1 - “He always strikes me as someone out of a 70s sitcom.
Purnell always reminds me of Alan B’Stard
Another problem with Neoconservatives is that they contradictorially (hypocritically?) combine maximum self-righteousness regarding the superiority of liberal democracy with maximum paranoia regarding its imperilment — “Al-Qaida is an existential threat to Western civilisation!” — and therefore continually seek to pass laws restricting and eroding the freedoms they supposedly cherish.
178. The Tories would eliminate sharia courts.
http://tinyurl.com/3hnh76
Coming on top of Grieve’s attack on the insanity of multiculturalism, I think this is a definite pitch for the white working class vote, and the vote of anyone with an IQ over 40.
Good. Of course all the Labour MPs and smelly lefty journalists will complain that their plans to destroy Britain are being foiled; no doubt they will get vigorous support from their friends the radical imams and the female gen1tal mutilators; the rest of us can applaud.
182 - Well almost everything.
186 balls always reminds me of piers fletcher-dervish
Latest Research 2000/DKos tracker
McCain 43% .. Obama 50%
Note - Yesterday M-42 O-51
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/28/75413/3350/471/612782
184. The detail says Obama was +5 Thursday, +7 Friday and +9 Saturday. I know it’s within the MOE (5.1%) but it looks like a trend.
I think Biden has the chance to seal the deal on Thursday. Let’s hope he takes it; I’m not sure he will.
188. It is an appeal to common sense & a defeat the left of centre enemy within.
QUOTE
A Genuine and Immediate Crisis
What Congress has to do now.
by William Kristol
09/27/2008 1:45:00 PM
I’ve received phone calls in the last hour from two economists I respect, one of them Larry Lindsey, the other in a position where he’d prefer not to be named. Both have government experience, neither is alarmist by nature, and they say this:
The huge European bank Fortis is apparently about to fail. The ripple effect on the American banking system could be disastrous, with bank runs, liquidity crises, and stock sell offs possible Monday. Wachovia may well fail next week. As Larry put it, this really will be 1933 soon if we don’t move rapidly to stabilize the banking system.
180 - Well you could read his book ‘Michael Portillo: the future of the right’.
Within the following review of another book, the historian William Dalyrmple, particularly knowledgeable on Asian history, gives as complete an evisceration of Gove’s lack of knowledge and understanding on that which he professes to be an expert on as you can imagine.
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/books/non-fiction/article645300.ece
Gove is great on things like personal liberty and his ideas for education are very interesting, it’s mainly the foreign policy area I disagree with.
Also - a cautionary tale for progressives in all countries.
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/507687
If Steve Webb is here - how can the Lib Dems ensure that the Green Tax Switch doesn’t suffer the fate of the Green Shift?
FWIW, I finally watched the full debate (as opposed to clips) last night when it was shown on British TV and this is what I think:
My take on it was threefold:
1) Obama dominated McCain on the econony, looking more Presidential and explained his views in a sober, serious way, without pandering or resorting to cliche. In contrast, McCain did little to distinguish himself from the generic Republican tax cutting position and kept going on about earmarks - which has become the equivalent of his POW record. This is not to say that either his heroism or his opposition to earmarks are unimportant as a lead into a general debate about waste or character, but on their own they are the equivalent of Giuliani’s ability to bring 9/11 into everything.
2) Although I agree with McCain on foreign policy, I think Obama performed much better up until the bracelet moment. McCain seemed unable to put forward a rationale for staying in Iraq and seemed too focused on specific details rather than the broader picture. Obama also managed to turn one of McCain’s most effective arguments, Obama’s vote against funding, against McCain.
I think for the first half hour McCain seemed to be still suffering the consequences of the crowded Republican primary field which meant that he hadn’t experienced any genuine two-way debates. In contrast, as has been mentioned elsewhere, Obama has clearly reaped the benefits of having to debate against Hillary Clinton.
3) McCain’s best moment of the night was the bracelet moment - though at one point in the story he seemed close to tears. In it he finally outlined a rationale for staying in Iraq and characterised himself as part of the wider US Army in Vietnam rather than as an individual hero. Obama’s “I have a bracelet too” retort seemed cheap and unpresidential and his rote recounting of the meeting seemed unengaged. From then on McCain started to regain confidence and finally began to outperform Obama - who seemed to lost his compsure from then on.
If this had been a purely foreign policy debate then McCain would have won on points - although he should have made his key arguments (such as the link between victory Iraq and Afghanistan) earlier. However, the polls suggest that most people in the audience were focused on the economy segment, which was created in response to McCain’s stunt. So, I’m going to say that Obama carried the night overall (though not by much).
It is no good Labour saying the credit crunch is due to dodgy US lending. The 125% mortgage evolved on Labour’s watch here in the UK, this perversion of the Financial framework is a direct result of Labour regulating the sales process and not the financial governance of institutions.
187. A very good point.
188. Will they be clamping down on Jewish courts also?
197. Sorry should have re-read that before I posted it!
It is no good Labour saying the credit crunch is due *only* to dodgy US lending.
Martin Day - I wonder what Brown’s reaction to the floods last year would have been if they were in Scotland rather than Yorkshire.
I can’t see Lloyds moving their head office to Edinburgh, but if most of the job losses are in Yorkshire it will still hurt the Government. I can understand Darling doing this (his seat) but why Brown? Surely he knows that this would be catastrophic?
191. Jack in fact I think it was Obama +6 yesterday so he’s gained a point.
ukpaul - From what I’ve heard Gove’s ideas about education are basically a return to traditional teaching methods. Hardly anything remarkable in that. Maybe there are other things he has said, but from what I’ve seen, I think he’s the most over-rated politician in the country.
200 Gordon Brown believes he can spin his way out of anything. Blatant lies mean nothing to him, he and his cabinet have proved that time and again. So if the jobs going to Scotland is questioned expect him to blame it on the bank.
201. I think Jack is saying that Obama led 51-42 in the interviews taken yesterday for this tracker poll. It confused me too for a moment.
202 - I was partly referring to the ideas on ‘free schools’ that dominated the Sunday Times front page today.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4837988.ece
“David Cameron will this week reveal the scale of the party’s ambitions to transform the education system, detailing proposals to replace failing comprehensives and primaries with new “free” schools run by parents, charities and private firms.
They will be given extraordinary freedom to set their own curriculum and will be allowed to abandon GCSEs and A-levels in favour of the International Baccalaureate, European or American exams.”
205. Incidentally, did anyone else notice the reference to diversity of school provision in Nick Clegg’s conference speech? I’m not entirely sure what it meant - but it looked like a bit of a dog whistle to grammar-schoolers. If so that is a positive move I think.
‘Allowed to set their own curriculum?’
Why should businesses or charities be allowed to set their own curriculum? Sounds absolutely abhorrent. We’ve had enough of that from New Labour. So we could have faith schools teaching creationism and business schools indoctrinating kids about the righteousness of the private sector. Disgraceful.
I am delighted by the ‘free schools’ proposals.
However I would want to make sure that the curriculum choices did not extend into areas such as teaching creationism as science. By all means have a faith school - but they should not be permitted to brainwash
200. I would also say that Brown or indirectly by his families financial affairs could highlight some interesting co-incidences with the deal that has not yet been sealed. I have detailed these before and can only assume that the media either thinks they are unimportant or have choosen not to say anything because of the economic implications of failure. Sometimes you have to suck a lemon!
Indeed Lloyds TSB has done very well out of the credit crunch. They have had first refusal on NR mortgages (In essence that is what it is, Lloyds TSB help to place NR customers looking for new deals), Lloyds TSB has now taken HBOS which creates a mega financial institution that will severly deplete mortgage competion, I will be looking carefully to see if parts of the B & B end up under Lloyds TSB.
207 - Well, personally, I would ban religious preference for schools so that is one area which I would not be happy with (although the article doesn’t mention religious schools and as it says “An independent licensing agency would regulate the system to guard against inappropriate organisations opening schools. “)
As for curriculum, private schools can already do that, the fact is that they stick pretty much to the norm with tweaks to suit the type of school.
208 - Agreed.
Meanwhile Brown has disapeared again - He has obviously gone to Iraq/ Afghanistan!
Why is the Old Etonian so indecisive??
From Bloomberg
David Cameron, leader of the opposition Conservatives, interviewed on the BBC’s Andrew Marr television show today, refused to be drawn on whether his party would oppose nationalization, as it did earlier this year in the case of Northern Rock. “We will look at it like a responsible opposition,” he said. “What matters most of all is safeguarding the depositors
Old Etonian.. The old Tory Toffs stuff eh Herbert. I think Cameron will be a lot more decisive that the Arsenal defence was yesterday.
213. That’s a bit of a stupid comment to make. Cameron and the Tories have no idea about the balance sheets of B & B, they are not the government.
Cable and the LD’s can get away with coming out with a position because they will never be held to account or they can change their position.
209 That may happen in a few cases, but I imagine that most schools will want to teach subjects that are of use to pupils.
ukpaul - Yes, private schools can set their own curriculums (I should know, I attended one). But they don’t have tax-payer money. I don’t want my money being spent on schools who choose to ignore the government curriculum.
217 I don’t mind the idea of schools having varied curricula, so long as they teach the basic subjects like English, Maths, etc.
218. I didn’t think it was curriculums.
216. Even a dozen schools doing it means thousands of children being screwed over.
188 Are they planning to scrap Beth Din too?
Can they teach a curriculum that establishes either curriculums or curricula as the correct plural..?
220. …if parents choose to send their children there…
208,209: Do not believe all the propaganda put about by the advocates of Darwinism. His Theory of Evolution is still not proven, and whilst dates and age rely mostly on carbon dating, this evidence becomes very flaky the farther back in time one goes. There are still many missing thinks before the evolution theory is proven. Incidentally I am also a research scientist.
The problem with education for the last 40 years is that it has been ruled by ideology and not what is the best way to discover and grow the talents of every child in this land.
We have to demolish the Labour practice of lowest common denominator for all whilst they retain the right to chose privileged education for their children. This is just rank hypocrisy (Stalinism) and show that they do not believe in their own dogma.
In the last year I have spoken with many children who are ambitious and wish to aim for a career in a demanding science, which may mean going to a top university, but are denied their chance to attain their ambitions by a restrictive curriculum and badly trained teachers who actively discourage these children from trying to realise their ambitions. The whole state education system needs a radical review and political dogma removed from schools and teacher training colleges.
221. Dave H: Are they planning to scrap Beth Din too?
From the Telegraph article linked to in the post you cited:
Lady Neville-Jones said that while minor disputes could be settled by “customary mediation” - including through sharia and the Jewish Beth Din system - there could be no formal legal recognition.
222. BannedHorse: Can they teach a curriculum that establishes either curriculums or curricula as the correct plural..?
Hah!
My Shorter OED lists both as acceptable.
214. Cameron has to be much more decisive otherwise he will be forever be the leader of the opposition.
I was shocked at Arsenal’s performance yesterday and understand that the riot act was read out to the team after the game.Well done to Hull and their first goal must be one the goals of the season.
Watch this space after the game on Tuesday night
215. The balance sheets of B&B(a publicly quoted company) can be obtained by a company search by anyone including David Cameron.
His research team should brief him thoroughly on this institution and the quality or otherwise of their mortgage book and then he will be able to give a yes or no response to nationalisation.
No scientific theory can ever be definitively “proven”; the point is Darwinisn best fits the data and research.
221. “Lady Neville-Jones said that while minor disputes could be settled by “customary mediation” - including through sharia and the Jewish Beth Din system - there could be no formal legal recognition.”
In my opinion, if necessary they should scrap Beth Din too. Enough already. Labour wants Britain destroyed as we know it; the right doesn’t.
One law for all.
224: ‘There are still many missing thinks before the evolution theory is proven.’
Such as?
220 It’s possible to be screwed over by your school under the current system.
Given that it’s possible to set up private schools that teach creationism as fact, or seek to indoctrinate pupils with capitalist values, at present, but no one has found it commercially viable to do so, I think that it’s a fairly remote possibility under Gove’s proposed system.
224. Financier: Theory of Evolution is still not proven
Of course not. It’s a scientific theory which, by definition, can never be proven, only disproved. (see Stephen Hawking in “A Brief History of Time”)
I agree with your last three paragraphs, though.
In an ideal world, the only religion in schools would as part of a study of different religions so as to promote understanding of the various faiths.
Anything else should be kept to the home/place of worship.
But with the amount of money that various churches pump into the education system, they might not take too kindly to it!
228 I’d be happy for commercial disputes, or small claims to be handled by either Beth Din or Sharia courts, but I don’t think they should be handling disputes relating to family law.
224. Disgusting isn’t it. The leftists have corrupted science ever since the round earth lobby managed to get their dogma paraded as orthodoxy by the establishment.
Somehow i don’t think that B&B’s last published balance sheet will be much good!
195 - Gove was in favour of long detention without trial.
229. The fact is evolution explains change, it doesnt as it advocates claim, explain how life began. We have not yet devised a plausible (and repeatable) explanation for how life began.
Quite frankly the scientific explanations (unproven hypothesis) for the beginning of life are about as likely to be correct as an old bloke in a beard doing it himself.
Those that accept the scientific explanations without prove or repetition are intellectually no less susceptible to belief in tall tales, then those who have a religious belief in the beginning.
The man in the white coat surely is the 21st century equivalent of the parish priest, issuing half baked theories which are unprovable, and only understandable by themselves, and often used collectively to accumulate power and influence for others.
226. You over simplify how a political decision of natinalisation would be made. Balance sheets do not normally show current data as you well know! Oppositions can only react to events like this, it is not in the national interest for them to rush a decision on position without knowing the full facts. Only a partisan LD or partisan Labour individual would expect the tories to adopt a knee jerk response.
The Tories have to adopt a position that is in the best interests of the country, not a few percent in the opinion polls. you betray a shallow and calculating side that I would caution any politician from displaying.
It all goes back to the fact that Labour have failed the country -It is no good blaming the US for this: **British banks mean British regulation** Labour are to blame and need removing from office at the next election.
230. Actually, there’s a creationist school up in the North East. Far more could occur with more relaxations. I accept its possible to get screwed over by the current state system, but its defects are harder to cure rather than simply establishing some basic rules about curricula (i.e. only presenting genuine scientific theories as science).
233. I put forward the accusation that Sharia courts already exist in areas of the UK, and are used to enforce criminal punishments, they are just not official. Like the nationalist and republican courts in NI, their justice will be quick and brutal, and usually carried out on children and those who upset powerful people in their community.
Darwinism may or may not have been disproved, but 99% of Creationism as outlined in the Bible certainly has!
“195 - Gove was in favour of long detention without trial.”
Exactly, whenever something is linkable to foreign policy he becomes very illiberal. Things such as ID cards no, detention without trial yes.
233. Seems a reasonable balance.
So what’s the deal with this Belgian Bank?
205. Oh OK thanks, yes got a tad cofused there. I’m not sure about Biden “sealing the deal” by theway; I don’t think it’s possible in a Veep debate. Biden just has to hold his own, that’s all.
Hague is doing a sterling job..
There is no evidence at all for Creationism (or ID)
It is just a story written in a pre-scientific age
238 “Actually, there’s a creationist school up in the North East.”
Presumably, Socrates, it is popular with Newcastle United supporters, who believe anything is possible.
I see the teaching unions are against Cameron and Gove’s measures, they must be a good thing then. I hope it happens, about time the teaching unions and the left wing education establishment got taken on and their power seriosuly scaled back.
205 Jack P. That’s correct. Sorry for the confusion benbobjim.
206 etc - From the Times piece
“The schools would not be allowed to make a profit.”
That would seem to rule out any interest from the many private companies providing education so would you be left with special interest and religious groups?
224. So as a research scientist your assessment is that the theory of evolution is flawed. Can I ask do you believe in the theory or do you have some alternative explanation of how we got here?
236. Could you link me to a single instance of a serious advocate of evolution claiming it explains how life started?
226 It’s not a black and white answer, so it isn’t indecisiveness.
(a) The Tories want to establish a new sort of “BofE administration” for banks that are in trouble. They say they proposed this after Northern Rock, but the Government ignored it. No idea if this is a good idea or how it would work, but it would obviously add a third option to the current which is…
(b) …nationalisation or a fire sale. I would prefer B&B to go to another bank and I am sure the Tories would too. However if this is not possible then grudgingly nationalisation might be the best option, especially if it can be achieved before the SE opens tomorrow and so without talking up the share price. At the moment, B&B probably can’t be allowed to fail because of the knock-on effect it could have; if it was a one off and the economy & banking sector otherwise healthy, this might be the best bet. Of course I expect B&B’s new owners to immediately part with the management team on the minimum contractual terms available.
Latest Rasmussen tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 50%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Massa in trouble in the GP.
254. These two internals are bad news for Macca.
“Obama and McCain are essentially even among White Women, a constituency that George W. Bush won by eleven points four years ago.”
“Obama is now supported by 13% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats.”
o/t I am no tory never thought of voting them…family USED to despise them but at the conference they are wiping the floor with Labour.They must be the most pathetic juvenile wrangling berks for many a year… at least the tory implosion was decisive. Look at brown waltzing off to america telling the world about its problem. Can someone please tell him to f**k off.
William Hague currently in great form at Conference.
249. No worries Jack
258 - Yes he is a better speaker than the entire cabinet put together!
258 - It appears that leading Tories who aren’t the leader are allowed more than 8 minutes…
For all those who have commented on the undesirability of allowing flexibility in the curriculum - why on earth do you think that a monolithic curriculum imposed by Government across the whole country is in any way sensible? It stifles innovation and allows for no variation based on individual needs, and reduces the possibility for excellence by removing the ability to exercise professional skills & judgment.
Where’s Gordon today? Preparing another stunt? Does anyone know (or care)?
“U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford are knotted in a statistical tie for McConnell’s seat, according to the latest Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.
The poll found that each candidate would get the support of 41 percent of likely voters if the election were held today. But McConnell nudged ahead 45-44 when undecided likely voters who were leaning toward a candidate were included into the poll results.”
http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080927/NEWS0106/809270303&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL
If McConnell is in trouble the Republicans could be in serious meltdown this year.
262 - Introduction of the National Curriculum was the single biggest mistake of the Thatcher Govt.
261 - I think it is because Cameron is comfortable in his position!
251. Evolution is obvious and provable. The precise mechanism is still up to debate, but the changes are there for us all to see.
Many experiments can be done in the laboratory that make it quite clear.
That doesnt mean it explains how life begins, which creationism attempts to do.
262 - Flexibility is one thing. Allowing our children to be taught things like creationism as scientific fact is just wrong. They can be taught that it is the narrative used to explain things over 2000 years ago and that some people choose to believe it.
255. I’m surprised Max Moseley didn’t stop the race!!
Cameron on now
147 You think so.
Redwood may look like someone from an institution, but they guy know his financial onions.
http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/09/18/clegg-and-cable-the-two-gaffers/
Ben Brogan:
Dave is fired up
Strong performance by David Cameron on Marr this morning. That might just be me enjoying a politician who gives straight answers and doesn’t drown his answers in “um, you know, I means”. But he sounded calm, stern, in control, which is all to the good. His “of course, you can’t rule that out” when asked about likely Tory tax rises is the top line, as he sidles up to the painful realities that will face him if he wins power. Gordon Brown may bleat on about tough decisions in the national interest, but he only takes those that coincide with the Labour interest. So George and Dave can’t count on him to do the dirty work.
Elsewhere, I was struck by his reference to a “responsible” Opposition (”I am a responsible leader”, he says). And his offer of American-style bipartisanship to help speed consensus on finance reform. George Osborne said on Sky that Mr Brown has “never bothered to pick up the phone to the Opposition in this country.”
256. Benbobjim: bad news for Macca [...] “Obama is now supported by 13% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats.”
That’s pretty much a wash, since there are more Dems than Reps, right?
226. The publically available returns are generally massaged for large companies. Just this side of illegal, but it makes working out what is really happening very, very difficult. Remember that alot of the problem is the value of assets - is mortgage debt worth 100% of par, 50%, 20%??? Rather depends on the detail of what the debt is on….
253. Chapter 11 for UK banks. Not a bad idea - Chapter 11 has as its most recent sucess, kept the remains of Lehman alive long enough to be sold as going concerns. This has saved portions of the business that were sound. Not to mention a number of jobs.
262. I’m pro allowing felixibility with the curriculum, but within limits.
Cameron to Gordon “You have had your boom, now your reputation is bust!”. Great soundbite.
50.
“(Cameron….. comes across as highly intelligent, human, even warm.”
All successful con men do. The most effective of all are the ‘friendly granny types but the next best are the ‘nice young man’. You’d buy a fake watch or dodgy policy from them any time. Purnell is another scary one in the Blair-Chamereon model of politicians who are worse than unprincipled. They believe they have principles which makes them harder to pin down or tip up.
I thought the new shade on the bonce this morning was closer to natural and the person who did the ‘knitting’ up top for him deserves a medal despite being employed by the forces of evil.
276 posts already and only 5 with any mention of James Purnell.
277 - You are Harriet Harman.
269.
“I’m surprised Max Moseley didn’t stop the race!!”
He only does that when they’ve run out of cash for the race fuel. Then he just has a whip round and they all come fast and furious again.
Purnell looks vulnerable to a dose of Brown scorn. How dare he show a bit of flair and initiative?
I don’t particularly like the man or his recent proposals - but at least he shows a certain amount of skill.
No wonder Gordo isn’t a fan
The Tory conference has started and they have a huge problem, they now need an economic policy.
So far the Tory strategy has been to keep quite say nothing apart from Gordon is a moron and what there polling rise. Now they have to really come up with a policy, problem with that is the public might not like it, Labour might have something to attack and ridicule.
The country can easily unite behind the Gordon is a moron line, however that isn’t a policy because if you end up in power you need to do something.
I’m at a loss to name one Tory policy to tackle this mess, so in 24hrs what are these politicains going to come up with to sell to Joe Public.
However so far Labour have come up with nothing apart from getting the taxpayer to write a blank cheque and take up all the crap debt, leaving the profitable debt for big business.
So what are the Tories going to do differently.
My advice to David Cameron, let B&B go under.Their buy to let mortgage book must be horrendous to value.
282 - You seem to be under the misapprehension that David Cameron has the power to “let B&B go under”
@273. It’s indeed a wash. Using the latest party ID figures I could find (Gallup: 36% Dem, 29% Rep, 34% Ind), Obama wins 3.8% of total voters from the opposite camp, while McCain wins 4.0%. The exact difference (without rounding) gives McCain an edge of 0.19 percent of total voters from cross-over preference, which I’m sure is completely insignificant. Of course, there’s always the question of likely voters vs. registered and so on.
To me, this seems fairly horrible for McCain. It’s pretty clear that Americans are fed up with the Republicans, so McCain’s hope (apart from winning independents) must be that a decent number of self-identifying Democrats will vote Dem for the down ticket races but McCain for president. The numbers tell me McCain is now widely seen as just another Republican. I’m not sure how he can correct this impression in the next weeks.
282: ‘The Tory conference has started and they have a huge problem, they now need an economic policy.’
Not sure about that. From the last couple of days I think it’s clear that the Tories are going to go with sweeping away Brown’s failed regulatory framework and imposing a re-vamped one of their own. Duuno if it’s a good or bad idea - but in this situation, having ideas and something to say is all that matters.
226. The unaudited Bradford & Bingley balance sheet to June 2008 is readily available on the website. The question as always is how meaningful it is as of now. Not least it is prepared as an ongoing business and that obviously is not the case today. The big question here is the quality of the loan book. House prices have fallen in the last couple of months, the availability of financing has deteriorated and the prospect of borrower default has increased.
The key fact of all this is that the 3 companies which have failed (NR, B&B and HBOS) all saw their share prices fall dramatically over many months before their particular crisis. Those in the know were able to assess the flawed business plans of these particular businesses. The speculators as always were quicker off the mark than most of the private individuals.
Beware of other companies where the share price display similar characteristics unless the management implement robust action plans to address the problems.
243. Fortis is likely to be bailed out by the Belgian government, with help from other banks in the low countries. It will be quite messy, though.
282 Mr Proper, you probably didn’t see David Cameron’s introductory mesage to the conference in which he clearly said that the conference would hear proposals to be implemented in a Tory government.
What do you think they’ve been doing over the past few months?
In any case, due to recent events - any economic policy they came up with even 6 months ago would no longer be worth the paper it’s written on. However parties get a lot of stick for changing policy, even as a response to events, so it’s probably best to try to get away with not having one for as long as possible.
287 - I wasn’t aware there was a Belgian Govt. One loses track…
Labour has selected Emma Reynolds in Wolverhampton North East (Ken Purchase retiring). She won from an open shirtlist contest (among the defated hopefuls there’s former MP John Cryer)
290 - lol - presumably there was never any danger she was going to lose if she was up against a load of men
290. Wonderful typo, Andrea
291/292
ops, sorry!
289.
Bllom berg reporting “The U.K. government will act to protect Bradford & Bingley Plc customers, Chief Whip Geoff Hoon said after the British Broadcasting Corp. reported the country’s biggest lender to landlords will be taken over by the state.”
Chief Whip? Where’s Gordon W. Brown? Where’s Alistair, darling?
That’s Bloomberg, of course
295. Maybe Hoon has acted in a secret putsch to take over the government and install himself as de facto PM. Brown and Darling are locked in the basement of number 10 whilst Hoon works out how to get Brown to the palace to secure his resignation.
Great result for Hamilton:)
A 7 point lead, pending a 10 point penalty for suspiciously driving a car that isn’t red.
126. The Irish question’s a _bit_ more complicated than that, cf. King John allegedly pulling the beards of the Irish chieftains in the 13th century, the nine years war in Ulster at the end of the 16th century (i.e. before James VI - not James IV - of Scotland’s accession to the English throne), and the fact that in the 18th century the plantation Presbyterians were, like the indigenous Catholic population, discriminated against by the Dublin Anglo-Irish ascendancy. Oh, and Cromwell, probably the most hated figure of all in Ireland, was English not Scottish.
If Purnell is too good that is a scary thought for Labour supporters.
That is Cameron’s strength. He’s able to have all the heavyweights in his team if he wants them and still be clearly in charge.
Could Gordon have someone as stunningly impressive as William Hague in his cabinet? Of course not, as he’d look hideous in comparison. Cameron and Hague just look so impressive as a team and will do a much better job of running the country than Brown and Miliband.
Surely even most Labour supporters can see Hague/Cameron as better equipped to meet foreign leaders than Milband/Brown!
God we need an election as soon as possible!
Will we ever know whether Bradford & Bingley was fundamentally unsound or whether it was a firm with obvious but non-fatal weaknesses which was torpedoed by persisitent short-selling creating further confidence problems which created more short-selling?
I imagine that there must be tens of thousands of families up and down the country who are B&B mortgagees or savers of many years standing who have a couple of hundred B&B shares but hung on to them because they thought that was the responsible thing to do. I wonder how these will all be feeling when they hear that their shareholding has now been ’stolen’ from them a lot of the damage has beeen done by people who will be giving a share of their ‘winnings’ to David Cameron and the Conservatives?
Can’t stand Hamilton but was backing Alonso so I’m happy.
302, El Panurgos!
Alonso’s a great driver. I wouldn’t want to spend any time with him though.
301 - Short selling cannot sustainably push a price below the point of value. There will be other people in the market who will see the bargain and put a floor under the share price. No such floor has been found because the risk did not match the potential reward. That tells anyone who is willing to pay any attention that B&B is a company without much of a future.
“Will we ever know whether Bradford & Bingley was fundamentally unsound or whether it was a firm with obvious but non-fatal weaknesses which was torpedoed by persisitent short-selling creating further confidence problems which created more short-selling?”
Much more likely the former. A falling share price, of itself, won’t send a sound business to the wall.
301 is it only the edge fund managers that donate to the Tories tha are a problem then? What about the ones that donate to the Lib Dems and to Labour? Or don’t they count because it doesn;t feed into the anti-Tory rhetoric?
Legal donations from legal sources - disgraceful really
“He’s English, he’s young and he communicates well.”
I can’t argue with the first two points, but if he’s such a fab communicator why did he receive such a breathtakingly hostile response in Frank Luntz’s focus group - ie. “the boy’s just wasted three minutes of my life”?
Talking of Luntz, vastly overrated as he is, he did make an interesting point a couple of years ago about the standard assumption (present in Mike’s intro) that being English is an advantage and that being Scottish or Welsh is a handicap. Luntz claimed to be genuinely shocked that people in his focus group would casually admit to disliking Gordon Brown solely on the basis of being Scottish - he said in the US it would be unthinkable to openly say that about a southerner, or whatever. Certainly, if anyone in Scottish politics was criticised for being too English (and, contrary to the belief of some, we do have English politicians) the charges of racism would quickly follow, and rightly so.
For the record, I’m not criticising Mike, just the underlying public attitude he’s drawing attention to.
I’m not sure I agree with the apparent emerging consensus here that ‘the media narrative has changed’. It is true to say that Brown has been given a boost buy more positive coverage garnered over the past fortnight and the fact that David Cameron has been almost totally blanked out of the coverage during the same period. But the idea that the current financial instability we are witnessing is going to be the salvation of this Prime Minister and his government seems rather fanciful to me - how can we forget that is is the crowd that declared with certitude that they had ‘put an end to boom and bust’?
Brown and Labour are up 5-7 points in the polls, but they still find themselves with a deficit in excess of 10 points and with the Tory conference still to come. A lasting bounce? I rather doubt it.
303. I do believe I tipped Fred to win in Singapore on here at 25/1 a few days ago. I hope you all got on it…
307, actually I think it’s entirely legitimate given the West Lothian Question.
309, I missed it, but didn’t place a bet on this GP in any case.
301 - between 850,000 and 950,000 small shareholders in B&B. Say 1,400 in each constituency, on average.
308. We won’t forget but it’s a subtle and difficult case to make to the voters.
307. Wouldn’t it be interesting to gauge the reactions of that panel to Alex Salmond? The problem with Brown is not his Scottishness per se but rather that he hits just about every negative stereotype of Scots that English people have, dour, stingy etc. Salmond is a much more likeable person and I think he would come across well.
310. Yes, I’m sure the woman in Luntz’s piece a couple of years ago who smirked as she said Brown was “too Scottish” to be Prime Minister had reached that conclusion after mature and careful consideration of the implications of the West Lothian Question.
In any case, for as long as (and I hope it won’t be long) the UK government remains the ’sovereign’ government with control over foreign affairs, defence, taxation, marco-economic policy, immigration, social security, etc, etc, etc, it’s nothing short of outrageous to suggest a Scot should be barred from being the head of that government.
313, that may be it for some, but I do think the old WLQ is a huge part of it. Salmond doesn’t vote on English only matters, Brown has just announced a raft of English-only measures and they won’t affect a single one of his constituents.
311 And a far higher number, on average, in West Yorkshire seats, I should think.
314, I agree. But it’s entirely reasonable to demand that the WLQ be resolved and to point out the electoral disenfranchisement of the English, and the consequent democratic deficit when the PM is not Scottish but is an MP for a Scottish constituency.
313. Come to think of it, that was the focus group that wanted John Reid as Labour leader!
New thread - Austrian election special
Many thanks
Double Carpet
263. I was wondering if Brown was going to sign a land rover in Kabul this week. To Cyclops with thanks….
Austria exit polls
SPO 28.6
OVP 25.3
FPO 18.2
BZO 11.8
Grune 10.1
311. I am amazed at how little some people on here understand about (a) finance companies and (b) markets. The value of a finance company is not static - it’s underlying assets are trivial compared to its goodwill - it’s capacity to both borrow and lend and make a profit on the ‘turn’. This element can be destroyed by either real or imaginary threats or a combination of both. HBOS was a case in point - it could well have been ’sold into the floor’ even though it’s true ‘underlying’ value was considered to be worth rather more than Lloyds has ended up paying for it.
Likewise, the ‘floor price’ idea in a bear market is oversimplistic because it suggests some clear unambiguous idea of commonly-held valuation. People buy not based upon what they believe the underlying assets to be worth but upon all sorts of guesses about future yield, short- medium- and long-term. Often the crucial factor is ‘what I believe other players in this market will believe this firm to be worth’. In the present environment there is always something other than B&B that you would put your money into with a better certainty of getting a return. Bradford and Bingley seems to me to have ended up like a high-powered car whose starter motor has been jammed. It is therefore going nowhere on its own however much petrol you pour into it.
308 I am not sure that’s right. There may be a sense in the country that you can’t change the pilot whist the plane is actually spirraling out of control, even if he was partly responsible for the awful turbulence. At any rate I think that’s what the media are assuming - helped by the conference polls.
That could be a wrong inference and the polls could just be conference noise .
In any event, once the plane is more stable and is on a straight long painful descent, people will IMHO, want to hand over to someone else.
These past couple of weeks have been very very unstable. Fear comes first. Then its replaced by anger.
As far as HBoS in Yorkshire is concerned, the news is dominating the local agenda. There is a peice of varying length on local news channels every night.
We heard from the HBoS CE on Friday.
There is a constant theme : fears Scottish jobs will given preference over ‘jobs in Yorkshire’ and ‘Who is fighting for us?’
I have never heard them overtly link this with Gordon/national government policy but I am not sure the dots needs to be any bigger. Lets see what happens with the jobs, but one side will come out of this feeling aggrieved
322 - I think that is true, particularly with banks. The basic banking model as we’ve been sold ad nauseum is to borrow short and lend long, and pocket the difference. This whole business model is fundamentally dependent on those from who the bank borrows having confidence in it. That is why banks always have obsessions with building extremely impressive office buildings (see Lehman) because it projects an image of strength and strength gives confidence.
You can have two banks operating exactly the same business model but one will go under because one suffers a loss of confidence. No bank can survive all its creditors calling in their money.
However it is probably simplistic to blame the short sellers. It is not short sellers who have caused the collapse in banking shares. It is simply sellers. The banks that have gone under are those who are big in the mortgage market. And for some it is a case of reckless lending (Northern Rock), for others the simple fact of their exposure has caused trouble.
And i don’t think you can simply always lay the blame at the door of the executives.
323 - it will be interesting to see if the Yorkshire MPs suddenly begin to “find their voice” after the Glenrothes by-election.
264-What a croc. When Daschle lost his seat in 2004 did you also suggest the Dems were in breakdwon mode?