Could it be John Reid who is behind the plot?
September 14th, 2008
Could he still be a contender if the conditions were right?
An interesting piece on the Telegraph blog this afternoon went into the suggestion that the man behind the current moves within the Labour party is John Reid.
I’ve had his name in the back of my mind since this comment by the Telegraph’s astute Scottish political expert, Alan Cochrane, on the paper’s blog three months ago.
Cochrane observed: “…But with Charles Clarke, David Blunkett or John Reid all absenting themselves from the battlefield who is there to ring the alarm bells? None seems at all keen to re-enter the fray under Gordon Brown’s leadership..However, I should point out that the last-named, whose enmity for the Prime Minister knows no bounds but is lost in the mists of Scottish Labour blood-feuds, has still not announced formally that he’ll not be standing at the next general election..Currently revelling in his chairmanship of Celtic Football Club, could it be that Dr Reid is biding his time over saying farewell to politics just in case something should turn up..Apart from anything else, there’s never been a better Today programme ‘attack dog’ and Labour MPs didn’t complain about his Scottish accent. Perhaps they knew better.”
Well the latest piece, by Iain Martin, continues the theme.
He writes: “…Remember, for two years (May 2005 until June 2007) his PPS was Siobhain McDonagh, the MP whose intervention on Friday triggered this latest attempted coup. Perhaps that is just a co-incidence, but I suspect that Reid is watching, waiting and trying to work out whether his hand is strong enough for a serious power play..In theory he is stepping down from the Commons at the next election, but the way is still open for him to renounce that decision if he fancied a run for Labour leader. I suspect that if he was to intervene it would not be as a stalking horse for anyone else - he’s too ambitious and certain he could do the job for that.”
Who knows what’s going on but I’ve had a couple of little flutters on Reid - at 50/1 and 20/1. The circumstances could now be right for him to move.
I rate Reid highly as a big hitter and I don’t think life would be as easy for Cameron and his party if the other prominent figure in Scottish Labour politics got the job.
Mike Smithson
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Nah.
As I’ve said before, Reid would be doing Blair’s dirty work I reckon.
Latest Research 2000/DKos Tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 47% .. Barr 2% .. Nader 2%
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/14
Reid’s a Politburo thug. He’s tough, and a fighter, but he belongs in the political wing of the KGB. Those worried by Labour being authoritarian won’t exactly be enamoured with him.
I get the impression though that Gordon would tear the universe apart to prevent Reid getting to the top.
Labour = Total nuclear implosion!!!!
Next week at CERN: can anyone spot an atom of intelligence in a Labour MP?!!
Oh come on Mike. If any one is going to claim a home run on JR
it has to be me !!
A perfect caretaker in my opinion..
Hope so at least . Talking Green book ++++++++++++++
Best wishes as ever
TB
Reid would certainly be an interesting choice as leader of the Labour Party. Reid’s manner would be totally unlike that of Cameron/Clegg, it could have a certain appeal.
Perhaps this is the time for an, ‘authoritarian thug’
Reid is no Prime Minister, remember he was dire in every department he was in and his only supposedly redeeming features were he was an attack dog with a flair for the overly dramatic.
re 4. I think that Reid is the only one with the bottle to take on the Brown gang and he probably hates the PM more than anybody else in parliament.
The fact that he has kept the door open to remain in active politics is very revealing.
From last thread:
#250, thanks my Wessexian pal.
I could not remember the poor chaps name. [Mr Richardson, my history teacher, will be cursing me!]
If I remember correctly, the event was a bit of a Dr Kelly incident. No, silly me, the Italian masses complained against the national-socialist execution of an opponent. How far we Anglo-Saxon folks have fallen…!
On thread:
Celtic c*nt! Gives us Catholics a bad name. Hell must be awaiting for this trot!
9 - Indeed but if Reid stepped up then I get the impression that the Labour party would be torn apart beteen them…
As a Tory, he’s possibly the only Labour MP I’d be worried about
Nah, Reid wouldnt fancy getting Oatened. He’d never run.
I’m pretty sure that Labour has selected a candidate to fight his seat following his decision to stand down at the next election. Of all of these things could be dealt with (somehow) if he were to become PM, but it reinforces the impression that his time has been and gone.
7, you aren’t a time traveller from early 20th century Russia, are you?
It’s never the time for an authoritarian thug. The appeal of Reid would be seen only by jackboot jobsworths.
14. ‘Of all of these things’ should say ‘Of course all of these things’
8 Reid has some baggage to contend with IIRC, It would be madness….
2. Jack do you place any faith in a poll for a ultra liberal website? That’s not a snotty rhetorical question by the way, it’s a genuine question. I’m not sure whether to give this poll credence or not.
18 Benbobjim. Don’t look at the host but the pollster. R2000 are a decent pollster, and are publisning all the detail of the poll at DKos’s request.
It’s somewhat like the left rejecting OPR polls because Fox News commission them.
My own personal opinion, is that at its heart, this plot of being orchastrated by Tony Blair himself. John Reid (and Charles Clarke, etc… ) may be planning this out in Parliament, but they are acting for the Blairs, ultimately.
20. I posted about 5 paragraphs on this in an earlier thread. Blair’s name keeps coming up, even Hutton mentioned him in that interview
I think this is completely fanciful. Reid would have absolutely no chance of commanding public support. Gordon is surely safe as nobody with any credibility will take the risk of being humiliated.
Very interesting. Peter Oborne reported in the Daily Mail yesterday that Reid had attended Blair’s ‘house warming bbq’ a couple of weeks ago and that sources said they were discussing Brown and his position??????
Reid versus Brown, Reid loses - complete waste of money betting on him - if Brown goes, Reid becomes an irrelevance and he will not beat him in a run off - no-one will, PMs simply do not lose, they resign or win - any PM clinging on long enough to actually be removed by his own party has just destroyed said party.
Remind me again, how does Reid as a backbencher defeat Brown and the entire cabinet?
Jack W: I’m sorry, I can’t accept polling evidence from you. From now on, the only person I listen to is Philippe Magnion. You are insufficiently anti-Barack for me.
Seriously, and completely off-topic, I’ve been thinking about what I like and dislike about the two US Presidential candidates.
On McCain’s side, I see two big positives: he is right (and unusually vocal) about Free trade, and he is right about education (vouchers are the only way to go).
For Obama, he is the only serious politician to have realised, and articulated to me, the real problem with America in the world. If you look at all (well almost all) America’s problems they are with: (a) Iran’s nuclear ambitions and trouble making in Iraq; (b) Saudi-backed Islamic extremeism; (c) Russia flexing its muscles; (d) Caracas banging an anti-US drum, and lending/giving money to any anti-US governments in the region. Notice the connecion? In each case, the governments or problems in question are fuelled by $100+ oil. It is no coincidence that North Korea, for all its issues, is no serious threat to us,
McCain believes in dealing with these issues using force and the threat of force. Obama believes we must wean ourselves off oil. (Drilling in the ANWR would add, at most, 2% to world oil reserves.) McCain’s is the tactical response, Obama’s the strategic.
Long term, only if we stop giving money to the Chavez’s, the Wahhabi’s, and the Ahdinijad’s, can we win these wars. And that means energy independence as the major issue facing America today.
Obama realises this. McCain does not.
To use an analogy, it is like having an ant infestation, and you keep putting down sugar, and then using poison to kill of ants. Only if you stop putting down the sugar will the problem truly go away.
So: if I lean, it is slightly Obama. But I think neither Obama nor McCain would be as bad Bush.
20. But they have to mention their late lamented leader even if he as nothing to do with the plot. He is the definining point of their wing of the party.
20. Blair must be kicking himself for not hanging on until the economic situation would have given him a cast-iron excuse to sack Brown.
21. Wouldn’t surprise me. We know that Tone and Cherie both loath Gordon with a passion and they will surely have been planning their revenge since the “coup” in September 2006.
Blair may well end up being as destructive for Labour as Maggie has been for the Tories. All that rubbish about an orderly transition was just window dressing, deep down theres a hatred that burns intensly between these people. The sooner the rotten lot of the are put out of tgheir misery and we get a whole new government/personalities the better.
23 in short, no-one outside the current cabinet has a chance of defeatng Gordon, no-one within the cabinet has as yet said they would run - ergo Gordon is safe - Labour is melting down, but Gordon is safe.
Backbenchers don’t win contests against sitting PMs - Anthony Meyer
#15, nah, coldstone is a Wessexian freedom-fighter. Put’s the chap[pette] in the Ninth Century AD.
#21, …?
What? It really annoys me when people just put a question mark. Which part are you questioning?
I have to be painfully brutal here, but I doubt the civil liberties crowd constitute enough of the population to deny Labour an election victory. Sad, but true.
Reid would appeal to the constituency Labour require to be saved from GE disaster - the white working class - in that I can imagine him acting as a ‘tough on terror, tough on immigration’ kind of man. Guardianistas would despair, but do they constitute a demographic needed to prevent wipeout? Nah.
He’d (sadly) be a quite good choice for them - again, we’re not talking about winning an election here, but making sure that the loss is manageable and small enough for a quick turnaround.
Afternoon All,
I’m starting to think that this is all a cunning plan by Labour to make the Conservative Party redundant. After all what the point of having opposition parties when Labour oppose themselves so well?
Partisan views aside, whilst I can’t see Reid being interested in the leadership of the party, he could be the Brutus figure. After such a period of silence him coming into the fray against Brown would make things interesting. Other critics have voiced their opinions repeatedly but Reid has said nothing. He does have the level of gravitas to make the party sit up and potentially sway people within the party.
The question is whether he can be bothered now he is settled in his likely far more pleasurable role as a football club chairman?
20-1? Can’t believe taking those sorts of odds will improve your reputation Mike!
There is as much chance of John Reid being behind the present Labour naval gazing as there is of Robin Cook doing it from beyond the grave. Some Labour MPs are just beginning to realise that they were very stupid last year not to read PB.com and refuse to annoint Brown.
#30?
Make a sensible, on-topic comment, as opposed to a cheap snide remark, and I will converse. Until then…!
…?
[Geesh! Where is Gabble...?]
28. I thought when these names kept cropping up over the past 48 hours this was the endgame; but I agree, it doesn’t look like Gordon will be forced out yet. This, of course, damages the Labour party even more in that they simply can’t defenestrate a leader quickly - all this speculation is going to be around up until election day - which will mean an even greater pasting by the electorate.
I do think conference will be interesting, though.
28. The point with the likes of Clarke and Reid stirring things up, isn’t that they think they have even an outside chance of actually becoming leader. Its all about destabalsing Brown and getting revenge. And of course, hoping that it put fire in the belly of the Cabinet to do what must be done and actually tell Brown to go.
18. Fair enough. Thanks. Seems a bit out of kilter with others though?
Semi-on topic-as a Bournemouth resident,I was at Bournemouth Pier’s entrance(the amusement arcade etc),and who should walk off the western prom,towards the gardens?
None other than Charles Clarke,former Home Secretary.I said ‘Oh,hello Charles’,he responded-as he looked as if he was enjoying a relaxing walk I did not feel it appropriate to involve him in a deep conversation.(FWIW,’heavyweight describes Charles Clarke as he’s about 6ft 1 and weigh a good 18 stone :wink:)
39 continued This was at 4.10 pm today-apologies for my omission!
36 - I think that is the big big problem. Every renewed bout of speculation just makes the likely Conservative win even bigger. I think this next few weeks could be crucial for the medium term health of Labour, if they carry on like this then they could ensure an apocalyptic result for themselves.
Hmm.. Worth a punt, but my view when he was in Government, with his wide portfolio of jobs over the years, was that he had a touch too much of the ‘always the bridesmaid..’ to go for the top job..
And he hardly rushed for it when he had a better chance than he does now - and why would anyone of his age want the hassle of a poisoned chalice of being covered by a Tory landslide at the next election..
My guess is that the old boy is far too ‘cannae’ to be stitched up..
Reid won’t be applying to be leader, he is the Chairman of Celtic FC, he won’t give that up.
36, 37
Agreed - but the point is none of these minnows being discussed like Reid or Cruddas would have a snowballs chance in hell of becoming PM or leader before a GE. There are only I think 4 or 5 people that conceivably lead Labour into the next GE
Brown, Harman, Milliband, Johnson, Straw
Money on anyone else is compltely wasted
After a GE defeat - game on for anyone
Jack W denies plotting coup from mountain hideaway:
http://k41.pbase.com/o6/69/502269/1/75295856.nCOF3lMC.BeardedMan.jpg
Another problem that Labour have is that they just have too many interest groups involved.
In the Tory Party, when it comes to the crunch all that matters is the Parliamentary party. It is too easy in Labour to appeal to a major faction as justification for whatever actions are taken (loyalist or rebellious).
35. How was my comment not on topic?
Robert - Greenspan has stated that McCain’s tax cuts are unaffordable, he has also given a message of doom about the US economy - a “once in a century event”.
“”Oh, by far,” Greenspan said, when asked if the situation was the worst he had seen in his career. “There’s no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I’ve seen and it still is not resolved and still has a way to go and, indeed, it will continue to be a corrosive force until the price of homes in the United States stabilizes. ”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/14/greenspan-this-is-the-wor_n_126274.html
New Research 2000/The Record poll for New Jersey :
McCain 41% .. Obama 50%
http://www.northjersey.com/news/nationalpolitics/28361844.html
39 Benbobjim. All MoE stuff.
With all this talk of Reid, folk seem to have forgotten that there is another Blairite virulent anti-Brown heavyweight currently outside the Westminster magic circle. I’m not saying he’s a contender, but he is by nature a plotter and manipulator, a king-maker rather than a king.
And doesn’t his appointment in Brussells end soon?
I can’t see Reid actually wanting to lead the party, because he must know he hasn’t got a chance.
However I think he IS a big enough beast to cause serious damage to Brown, if he comes out and opposes Gordo at the right time and in the right way.
Given that by all accounts he’s happy in his nearly-post-political career, he may see this as his last service to Labour: to take down the Tractorman. And he could do it, if he gets two or three junior ministers alongside.
I have always thought that John Reid would be an interesting proposition if he could be persuaded to stand. He was rumoured to have thought about standing against Brown and decided against it, choosing to leave the stage instead (and keep his powder dry).
Points in his favour:
1. He’s genial
2. He would command respect
3. He would be decisive
4. He’d be no one’s pushover
5. He’d offer something different from David Cameron
Points against him:
1. He’s not had a great track record in any of his many jobs
2. He’s very Scottish, and the English public in particular may find two very Scottish figures in a row at least one too many
I’d be a little surprised if he wanted the job in these circumstances, but then again, there is no limit to the vanity of most politicians.
It’s not the Leader it’s the policies – remove Gordon Brown and Labour will still get hammered at the next GE – change the policies and there is a chance the hammering will only be light – I just don’t know who Labour is running the country for, certainly not for the likes of me.
52. Good point. A combination of Mandelson, Reid, Milburn and maybe Blunkett could possibly do for Gordon, even if no senior ministers joined in.
56. The latest incarnation of a Committee of Public Safety - only no-one would be safe.
55 - they can’t change the policies without disowning virtually everything they consider to have been successful about labour in the last 10 years. If they can’t even make a pitch based on their record then they have nothing.
56 - I suspect that Mandy is probably the most loathed Labour politician….by all Labour supporters/MPs/Unions. And by Conservatives, LibDems, Greens, Thai lovelies…I think that covers all decent people.
By the way, I know that we live in exciting times, but in the Lib Dem conference week, it would be good if we could have a thread on the propositions put forward in this paper:
http://www.liberal-vision.org/store/Liberal%20Vision%20-%20The%20Cameron%20Effect.pdf
59 - Probably the best man for the job! It’s much easier to operate as a politician/leader once you don’t have to make the effort to get people to like you.
59 - Spent his summer holidays with George Osborne…
58 - they have nothing then.
59 I and a fellow white-collar Labourite find Mandy slimy and odious!
61 -
. Yeah, but when you’re so actively loathed. I think not.
I like him.
62 . Oh dear. I guess that makes George indecent
59. With hindsight you could argue that the wheels started to come off the New Labour project from the moment Mandy was forced out of the Cabinet for the second time.
59. Oderint dum metuant - was Tiberius’ motto, but suits Mandy down to the ground. And I bet he thinks of ‘The Project’ has his offspring.
Reid could do the job, quite easily. He knows himself and is decisive. But there’s baggage, which can easily be check on google or a news search, the stories which came out when he pulled out of the running last year.
Not that it means anything, but Frank Luntz told me that in his opinon John Reid is the only person who can turn it around for Labour.
56. Mandelson is a serpent. I met him once. Never encountered such an obviously devious, untrustworthy figure. Mephistophelean.
However there’s no denying he’s damn smart, and commands a certain sullen respect thereby.
If he came out and called for Gordo to face a challenge, it would have quite a powerful effect.
If John Reid should ever become leader of the Labour Party JohnO could stop his evangelizing and we’d all join ex Comrade Tyson of our own volition.
71 - Doubt he would ever do that. Think he still feels guilt about the Brown/Blair thing in 1994. Remember he was a very good friend of Brown until that point.
71. Is Sean the first person to have ever used ‘Mephistophelean’ as a verb?
Immediate correction:- adjective
Depends if you are defining “verb” to mean “adjective”.
lol
too slow alex
70. Reid wouldn’t run IMO; there are rumours/allegations regarding his past personal life. It could all turn very nasty, very quickly.
80, you mean regarding possible reasons pertaining to his conversion to teetotalism?
81. I’m saying nuthin’. Just that the rumours/allegations exist.
82
I hear there are rumours circulating about you, b. But I’m saying nuthin’. 
Is there anyone in the Labour party who Gordon hasn’t got heaps of dirt on?
81 As someone who has had his problems with booze,I’d say three things:
(a)The word ‘alcoholic’ is IMHO over-used wildly
(b)Most-if not nearly all drinkers can learn,to a lesser or greater extent,’moderation’-I know that is an extremely opaque,loose description
(c)Could anyone,hand on heart,blame anyone passionate about the Labour Party wishing to get p1ssed re the current political climate?
69 - b. - I thought it was Caligula, rather than Tiberius?
83. Thank you. It was meant to be kept secret but the loofah got bought up by the NotW, the rubber duck by the Daily Sport and as for the custard-filled waders…. they never could keep shtum.
79. So are their about Cameron. It was even rumoured that he belonged to a society of fogies called the Bullingdon Club whose members used to dress up in tails with other sons of wealthy aristocrats and trash restaurants and then in a trail of £20 notes leave……
Personally I don’t believe a word of it……..
Barclays have pulled out of a rescue of Lehman Brothers:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7615712.stm
This is going to hurt US markets tomorrow - and I suspect that Merill Lynch may be the next domino to clatter.
I heard Reid was a boozer Commie with a bit of GBH on his Previous. Is that the skeleton in the cupboard?
If a taste for drunken punch-ups is all it takes to scupper a political career, I’d best give up my hopes for promotion under Cameron.
85 - Er, i don’t think it’s the drinking…
I don’t get Betfair. Had circa £14 in, put a £5 bet on and my cash goes down to £5. Trying to check the account statement and suchlike, but no joy as yet.
86. So did I - until I had my knuckles rapped by a classicist. He seemed to know what he was talking about, so I deferred to his expert knowledge - mostly to avoid his scorn.
25. I think the strategic need to smash the power of the motley cabal of oil-fueled rogue states which are behind so many of the world’s problems is widely accepted across the US. But for all the rhetoric I see no convincing new policy suggestions in this area from Obama or McCain.
92 - A £5 back or a £5 lay?
Manselson is not the most loathed by any strech of the imagination. Much as I didlike him, He was a very smoooooooth operator and was the architect of New Labour. There is IMHO someone who has taken the lead in the loathsome stakes. The great Leader.
89. A lucky escape for Barclays.
O/T. Anne Widdecombe in lap-dancing shocker - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/7615733.stm
95, £5 back. I do have an unmatched lay bet, but that’s for less, and I checked it.
25. Free trade will not have a future in the developing democracies of the world as long as it continues to be similar to the situation of the working class of 19th century Britain. Note that this was the cauldron in which Marxism, the curse of the 20th century, was forged. Obama is smart enough to see this. His policy - to implement basic labour and environmental standards with every free trade agreement - will stop free trade getting such a bad name, and will also prevent the emergence of radical socialist parties across Africa and Asia. That is the best way for free trade to have a future.
97 “A lucky escape for Barclays.”
Some good news for Roger at last….
88 Roger LOLOL The champagne socialist. Dont ya just love it.
82. What British politics desperately needs now is a bit of “colour” to free us from the Blair/Cameron/Clegg/Miliband emasculation that the spin-doctors have planned for us…
Under John Reid the millions of Old Labour who have given up on the Party might just return, he’d be popular with both men and women, and tear Cameron to ribbons…
I’ve never voted Labour, but I just can’t help liking the guy. A LOT..
Some of those “allegations” are mentioned here..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Reid_(politician)#Background
Unmatched bets will reduce your balance.
56. I don’t see the party ready to elect any candidate clearly to the right of Brown.
102. Sorry, link didn’t work
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Reid_(politician)
98, how embarrassing… no problem. Well, not with Betfair. Just my own maths skills:p
Sorry for timewasting:p
104 - Half the parliamentary critics want to move right, half left. Another reason why Brown won’t be forced out.
103, hehe, yeah. I’m sure everybody here made stupid mistakes like this at least once or twice… right?
On the plus side, I’m still better at financial management than the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
108. No need to be modest - you’re better than the Prime Minister too.
99. Garbage, both historically and analytically - these proposals are just a veiled form of protectionism. Typical rubbish from the Democrats in this area - which thankfully won’t ever be implemented.
The Reid Affair in full:
http://tinyurl.com/5rd7qj
Not exactly Watergate. Unedifying, but career-ruining? Hm. I’d rather have a reformed alcoholic ex-womanizer in Number 10 than an scheming, inept, hypocritical liar.
What a fascinating political weekend it’s been on PB.com. I have formed two opinions based on arguments made here and my own judgment.
Firstly, of course there has been an attempted coup to topple Gordon Brown, even acknowledged by Nick Palmer. But so far it appears unlikely to succeed. So Gordon and Labour are further weakened but limp on.
2. Maybe the McCain surge is reaching it’s peak? Certainly I am starting to have some concerns about the criticisms levelled at Palin, along the Troopergate line/appropriate use of power. I know PtP has these concerns.
So I’ve laid McCain today at 2.22 on Betfair and am about equally GREEN on Obama and McCain again.
All of sudden I’m starting to recall all the wonderful qualities I initially recognised in Obama! I’ve noticed this phenomenon before when I’ve shifted my betting positions. Funny that.
106 Never be embarrassed or frightened to ask, Morris. It’s so easy to make mistakes, especially when using a new betting medium.
It’s a while now since I backed when I meant to lay, or vice versa, but I used to do it a lot.
John Reid. The answer to the question “who is more authoritarian than Gordon Brown?” Horrible man.
Hello everyone. Back from a trip to America. Wonderful country.
Media is utter crap. There’s no such thing as a national newspaper. And even local ones are hard to track down. Politics is very parochial. The entire coverage of the Republican convention in one newspaper I saw was that a local congressman was appointed to the RNC.
88. Roger. Its irrelevant. No really it is. I’m a working class sink estate West Belfast kid born and bred and I dont have an issue at all with Cameron being lucky by borth and education. Good luck to him. I also know that if I saw fit to go into politics to try and fight my way towards the top that I could probably do it. Why? Because the old boys network isnt going to stop talent rising if you play the game. Its all overrated and the game is long defined, including the Labour party which is as full of nepotism as any other party.
Reid isnt the man. The party isnt going to go behind him I dont think when it comes down to it. Now I do have sneaking regard for him even though I dont agree with his politics. From what I gather his time at the NI Office showed him as fairly astute guy.
The plotters plan is clear and part of it is destablisiation as Gordon goes to conference and has to produce a glorious speech thats going to silence the critics. Whats the chance of that, epscially if it lasts more than about 15 minutes? There a strategy here that Gordon having to go so public with a speech at conference under this cloud is something he’ll simply not handle well.
114 - Well there’s ‘USA Today’ but you did say the word newspaper so….
Evening all
Thank you for your kind comment earlier, PtP, much appreciated.
Stodge’s Seventh Law of Politics states that Governments fall either when they lose their authority or when they start behaving like Oppositions.
In February 1974 and March 1979 the Heath and Callaghan Governments had lost authority as a result of external events. By May 1997 the Major Government was behaving like an Opposition.
Now, we see the Brown Government trying to do both at once. I do think the full political and economic impact of the credit crunch and oil shock will be with us for years to come and will impact on the next Government as well. However, it’s likely that the next Government will at least try and govern for a while, this Government has basically stopped functioning.
111. In full? Perhaps. Or possibly not.
God, how I hate John Reid. Wasn’t he the prat that said British troops shouldn’t have to “fire a single shot in anger” upon being deployed to Hellhole province?
More than a 100 body bags later, I find the idea of this lying, loathsome, disgusting little man ever taking high office again so awful that I’d rather Brown continued until the bitter end just to make sure Reid didn’t get a sniff.
104 - why is that?it’s the haemorrhage of working class tribal voters that causing the Labour Party problems.
The Tories are having their conference in BIRMINGHAM ??
Now, one often has to do some distasteful stuff in politics to be seen as ‘in touch’ and ‘down wid da yoof’, but that smacks of real desperation…
99. Disagree with you on two points:
1) Obama’s position on free trade is wrong and stupid, I hope it is merely political positioning. Free trade improves everyone’s economic well being. I think it’s odd how you oppose protectionism when it comes from the EU but you’re willing to let it slide when it comes from the democrats. But there are sufficient grounds to support Obama despite his positions on free trade. On this position the Democrats are to the left of the Labour party.
2) In no way to diminish the horror that those who profess to be marxists have inflicted on the world. But Marxism has also been a force for good. It’s hard to deny that the creation of the welfare state and the NHS etc. haven’t improved living standards or that most of the Marxist left in western countries haven’t contributed and agitated for this type of improvement.
121. Sure. That’s why the Cabinet had an away-day there. The thinking (ha!) was that since anything the Tories do seems to get them votes, then Brum must be the new ‘in’ place and if you’re not there, you’re not anywhere. Silly buggers.
120. There’s nothing Labour can do about it. Their upper echelons dislike Britain, they hate patriotism, they think freedom is bad, they distrust men, they really distrust white men, they really and particularly distrust white working class people, they especially and absolutely distrust and despise white working class men. They hate most of America.
What Labourites like are Gambians, aubergines, bearded immigrants they can patronise, Sweden, wanking on, Waitrose, France, Italian villas, money, a small part of north London, Cuba, complaining, rape crisis centres, remembering the struggle against apartheid, their own moral position on everything, spending other people’s money, and yams.
There’s nothing they can do about this. All this crap is what they believe at their very core, and this has been exposed, mercilessly, over the last ten years. Harriet Harman is still introducing anti-white anti-male racist sexist legislation as we speak.
I suspect multiculty europhile Labour have lost a generation of white male working class voters. They may have lost them for good.
122 - I wonder how many Ministers in the 1945-51 Labour Government thought of themselves as Marxists? Democratic socialism in Brtitain at least owes far more to Methodism than to Marx as Harold Wilson once said.
Hold on for a white knuckle ride
If Lehman files for bankruptcy protection which looks increasingly likely , Lehman counterparties look to lose a lot . What is more difficult is it will take some time to see who loses and how much . It seems that Lehman will be made the one to show there is a limit to central bank protection but it may give central banks more of a problem than they bargained for . We are moving into territory not explored for many decades and outcomes are v. unpredictable
Cochrane observed: “…John Reid … has still not announced formally that he’ll not be standing at the next general election…”
Well that’s Alan Cochrane’s credibility in Scottish journalism gone for a burton.
http://itn.co.uk/news/d88a1160a09bb3f93055a75f763bb6ac.html
John Reid has revealed plans to quit Westminster at the next general election.
In a letter to party members, Mr Reid said: “…I believe this is now an appropriate time for me to indicate my intention to stand down as an MP at the next general election.”
On another noter, Barclays have apparently pulled out of a bid for Lehman Brothers citing a lack of credit guaranatees.
Dont believe its over. They, and other banks (Bank of America is reportedly favourite) hovvering are looking for a bit of match money from the US Treasury. The Treasury is holding out.
This is going to the wire and if it Lehman does go down in the next 12-24 hours, there will no doubt be some picking of bones but the contagion risk is high and certainly there is a reason why so many are breaking their backs to get a solution before the Far East trading starts at midnight our time is because its market affects could be dramatic.
In short, if you are an occasional dabbler in the financial markets via indirect means such as the spreads, its maybe worth taking your cash out for a bit. Wimpish but this is tricky as if the bank went down in the longer it may just be what the market institutions needs to get a full dose of reality and start bottoming these issues out.
125. Totally agree. The social reforms forced through as a result of non-conformist consciences had more effect on the condition of the working class poor than any political tract.
For a hint of just how powerful these people were, check out who and what reformist movements were represented at Lord Salisbury’s funeral.
126. Snap!
124, reminds me of the Corston report on prisons.
The link to the report itself has changed since it was written in March of last year, but here’s an article on it:
http://www.communitycare.co.uk/Articles/2007/03/15/103821/corston-review-of-vulnerable-women-in-prison-special.html
It’s a bloody insane piece of feminist nonsense, which includes ideas such as:
only the severest female offenders (ie murderers, rapists, foxhunters) to be given custodial sentences, and wants community service to become the ‘norm’ for women offenders. These so-called custodial sentences would involve units of 20-30 women living together, organising their own budgets, cooking and shopping trips. Ooo, how severe!
a claim that men and women are different is one women acknowledge when it’s in favour of them (female physical inferiority meaning they get easier fitness tests to join the army) and ignore when it’s against them (the ultra-biased custody rulings following divorce settlements). Apparently ‘equal treatments does not mean equal outcome’. It bloody well does. A person should be sentenced according to the circumstances of their crime not their bloody gender.
Most women do not commit crime - true. Which is why out of tens of thousands of prisoners only 4k are women.
Women with histories of violence and abuse are over-represented - I’d be willing to bet that applies to men too. Yeah, the idea a man could be a victim is shocking, isn’t it?
Biological difference between men and women has different social and personal consequences - what, women have breasts and should therefore get lighter sentences? Bugger off.
Relationship problems feature strongly into women’s pathway into crime - ….so what? You can’t say “But my husband told me to” as a bloody defence.
Coercion by men can form a route into crime for some women - aye, and it can for some men too.
Drug addiction etc - Men are addicts too, baroness dumbass.
It’s basically saying “But women are lovely, not horrid, they don’t deserve jail.” Drove me mad when I read it.
Pretty sure Mike has bets on pretty much the entire Labour Party now
Nah. Not another former communist Scot. God help this country .
121
No doubt that if the Conservatives had held their conference in Blackpool Bournemouth or Brighton you would have been criticising them for being out of touch…………
However, holding CABINET in Birmingham ,that really smacks of desperation, that really IS pandering to the media for a story..
OT - I wonder if Barack Obama has seen ‘The Candidate’ just finished on BBC4?
Quick update…stories have it that Bank fo America has pulled out of talks about Lehman Brothers.
Its down to the Treasury now will they agree to stump up some guarantees to bring this takeover back again?
125. Indeed, the Labour party owes more to social reform traditions especially religious ones such as the Quakers than to Marxism. I don’t think Marxism has ever really been a core part of the Labour party except in the late 70s and early 80s. Though it has had an effect and a somewhat positive one.
I think there is a large difference between western marxism and socialism and eastern socialism. Western socialists tend to believe in socialism within the framework of Liberal Democracy whereas eastern Socialists such as in Russia or China tend to see it as an obstacle to be removed.
131. Yes. And compare the latest Harman attempt to criminalise all men who pay for sex, and decriminalise all women who charge for sex.
Now I know I am on personally dodgy ground here, but let’s leave Tom Knox out of it.
The presumption behind this nonsense is that all prostitutes are horribly exploited poor souls who’ve probably been trafficked from Moldova and are living in small huts outside Salford; whereas all men who use hookers are either fur-coated billionaires with sinister moustaches or repulsive pseedo-pedos who should basically be electrocuted.
The idea that many women go into prostitution willingly cause it can provide an extremely high income, perhaps to support a drug habit, or indeed a Chanel habit, is obviously incomprehensible and therefore impermissible.
And the idea that some men are forced to go to hookers cause they are horribly handicapped, and this is literally the only way they can ever get sex in their entire lives, is also impermissible. These men must be denied sex, and criminalised.
Of course prostitution will still go on, no society has ever managed to outlaw it. But in Harmanworld the women who earn all the tax free money will be regarded as innocent victims and the men who go to them and pay will be ridiculed, shamed and slung in jail.
Women good, men bad. Four legs good, two legs bad. Compare and contrast.
Considering how weak Labour is and how volatile the public service unions are I was wondering if this could be the real straw that breaks the camels back?
http://www.snp.org/node/13531
Thousands of public service trade unionists using this method to put pressure on Labour would be devastating for them.
You just have to read the comments in this BBC news page to see how volatile they are.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7606040.stm
Agree with vino that the issue is what we do, not who we’re led by. We’re canvassing three times a week as usual and there’s a marked drift to “usually Labour but let’s see you sort this mess out”. Nobody - I mean that literally - mentions changing the leader as something they care about.
At least Reid gives good Newsnight which is more than you can say for the incumbent. We are rapidly approaching a situation where almost anyone would be better than Gordon so they might as well go for it. Begin the thawing of Bryan Gould.
141
He might give good Newsnight, but I wouldn’t fancy his chances in a leadership election.
110. What a constructive post.
122. Yes, I accept Obama is to the left of Labour on this. But I think he’s also right. The reason Britain managed to avoid revolution in the 1800s because enough parliamentarians realised that certain restraints needed to be legislated for in order to keep support for capitalism. You surely would agree with labour safety laws and environmental protection in the West, so why are they wrong in other parts of the world? And why should the US not use its power to encourage them, particularly with countries whose democracies are not mature and are still run by party elites?
138, prostitution should be legalised, regulated and taxed. It’d help stop exploitation, and people trafficking. Plus, it’d be hilarious watching Chancellors decide whether or not to put VAT on acts of a carnal nature.
140. But has it not occurred to you that “let’s see you sort this mess out” is implicitly a request for new leadership? Albeit perhaps subconscious?
Brown is regarded as part of the “mess” they want sorted out. And that’s not surprising - he claimed credit for “no more boom and bust”, he is reaping the harvest of that ill-advised vanity.
139: ooh, a petition on an SNP website, that’s so scary - even in our present lively state I think we’ll survive that.
Bryan Gould….. now there’s a little twit if ever there was one.
Hattersley should make a comeback, he was talking immense bollox on Newsnight this week.
Top Ten most unthinkably bad Labour leaders that never were, ever
1) Harriet Harman
Derek Hatton
2) Bryan Gould
3) Tessa ‘Mike’s tip’ Jowell
4) Fattersley
5) Peter Shore
6) ‘Media darling’ Stephen ’sound as a’ Pound
7) Mandy
9) Edward Balls and his wife Ms Yvette Cooper
10) Frank ‘Buster Merryfield on prozac’ Dobson
145 - no, when Tony was leader people would frequently mention him either as a reason for voting for us or a reason for voting against us. Gordon doesn’t prompt such strong feelings either way, in my experience (except in some on here!).
I’d *prefer* it if everyone thought the problem was who our leader was. Much simpler to solve than fuel prices.
144. Prostitution is legal, it’s soliciting, living on immoral earnings or running a brothel that’s illegal.
I seem to recall that there was a mention in one of A. P. Herbert’s ‘Misleading Cases’ of the renowned Albert Haddock bringing a case against the Inland Revenue of living on immoral earnings. The girl had voluntarily paid income tax on her fees….
138 Ahem…SeanT
Peter the Pedantic Punter would like to point out that the profits from prostitution are not tax free. They are taxable (in the UK at least) as a trade, profession or vocation.
In practice of course only a small proportion declare their profits. Those that do not are guilty of tax evasion, which is illegal.
OK?
Rest of your post fine, and well up to your usual standards.
Carry on.
148 Well if you choose to believe Brown is an asset then its your political funeral.
144. Agreed. I did a piece on this for the Telegraph - I went to Germany where commercial sex is all legal and above board - and *generally* more civilised than in the UK.
The main bone of contention was indeed tax. The prostitutes resented paying it, having got used to relatively high, tax-free incomes. And there are some religious folk who don’t think the German government should build schools with money made from “saunas”.
146. Nick P: a petition on an SNP website, that’s
…not what it is.
148
You really should get out more Nick, Just go into any pub or petrol station or supermarket or in fact ANYWHERE and do a voxpop on GB and see how you get on…
I have to say your post is utterly BIZARRE
144 Morris
There is no doubt that under current legislation prostitution would be a vatable service and it is inconceivable that any Government would give it exempt status.
In practice this would matter little, because few working girls (or boys) would exceed the current registration limit (£67,000).
148 quite so Nick - you are 20 points behind in the polls because your party is utter crap and has let the country down. Good spot.
OT. Interesting article on how to be the perfect POTUS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7615099.stm
154 I dunno MTF, I think Gordon is just the personification of the crap, the crap remains even if the icon is torn down - we will still loathe Labour after Gordon goes so to that extent Nick is right. Of course, thats not what he meant but he’s right despite himself.
155. Are you kidding? A good escort girl in London can earn £1000 a DAY. A very average girl in an average massage parlour can easily make half that.
Perhaps prices have changed since you last personally investigated the matter?
12; “down to the wire”
nah, it’s over. Emergency trading session extended, contingent on LEH being bankrupt by midnight. They are all trying desperately to unwind their trades.
Ugly ugly scenes tomorrow.
Who’s next? Merrill? Or Ford or GM? I am getting a bit scared TBH.
Brown/Miliband/Danny LaRue who gives a sh1t…this is serious
90
I am not sure why everyone is avoiding saying what exactly John Reid’s baggage is, is it illegal to post it on a blog ? Surely that’s what blogs are for.
Sean I think apart from getting drunk John Reid has a penchant for the ladies. I think there is one (at least) sexual harassment case against him by a member of the staff at the home office.
Basically without putting too fine a point on it he hits on everything with a pulse or so it seems. It may be acceptable for people in other professions but not for a top level politician.
159 I live a sheltered and humble existence, SeanT. The girls I meet struggle to make £100 a day.
We move in very different circles, my friend.
161 George N
I suppose it depends on the Site owner’s attitude towards being sued.
Mike tends to be a bit touchy about it.
163
More ton the point, where the site is based and if it can be sued…
162. Well, unless you spend most of your time in soi4 Bangkok, or the Fitzroy Tavern, then yes we do diverge.
But I’m intrigued? Where do you meet these poor mites? Turning tricks along the A11? Surely not the Little Chef car park??
I’m teasing of course. I accept there is a serious substratum of drug-addicted girls who have pretty miserable lives. But there is also an equally substantial number of working girls who make very handsome livings in Britain’s larger cities, charging £200 (and upwards) a time - as a quick trawl on the Net would prove.
It’s morally complex.
143. The labour laws and environmental regulation I agree with. What I disagree with is the rhetoric (not too sure about how much this is reflected in policy) about punishing companies that shift jobs overseas etc.
I just thought that’s what makes blogs special. The informal aspect, the rumours, things that you don’t normally see in conventional news sources.
I feel I may be the reason why Mike won’t be receiving a Christmas card from John Reid this year.
Couple of polling bits -
1) Apparently Rasmussen changed party weighting again this week, Democrats - down 1%, Republicans up 1.5%, Independents down 0.5%. This kept McCain slightly ahead (and explains the mid week bump).
2) Hotline/Diageo tracker - Obama 45 (+1), McCain 43 (-2).
Jack must be taking a nap.
165 What I shame to get serious, SeanT! I was rather enjoying the turn this conversation was taking. Suffice to say that I know a few girls who make a living, or supplement supplement their income this way. HOW I know them is my business, not yours.
But yes, it is morally complex. At one extremity you have poverty, disease and exploitation; at the other, you have perfectly civilised commercial arrangements very likely to work to the girls’ advantage, if not indeed everybody’s. And of course there are all manner of in-between situations.
Complex indeed. It would be nice if the subject could be more fully aired in public, without prurience or prejudice.
And by the way, it’s the A12, not the A11.
168 He’s probably upset Matron, Paul, and she’s sent him to bed early.
Its likely that Lehman Bros will go bust tomorrow. It will be the greatest financial disaster of the credit crunch so far. It will teach many people a lesson they wont forget for a very long time and we are likely to see a whole lot of unpleasant consequences for employment and the econonmy . Still this pain has to be worked through. It’s lucky that we have Gordon Brown and the Labour party just getting on with the job………..
160. Sure BoA & Merrill are in talks, which may kill that one.
171
Robert Peston talking about Lehman Bros, saying a gale will sweep thro the markets if it isnt rescued (If I got what he said right.) Westmister Hour now on R4, Might be interesting.
Well that’s Alan Cochrane’s credibility in Scottish journalism gone for a burton.”
easter road-for heavens sake, tell me when A Cochrant ever HAD any credibility??
Have you actually READ any of his drivel??
171. … another potential casualty according to the Telegraph
“If the bank does collapse, it will only heighten fears about the prospects for other financial institutions, not least American International Group (AIG), the world’s biggest insurer which was last night racing to raise up to $20bn with the help of bankers from JP Morgan Chase amid concerns over its own capital adequacy.”
166. Ok, I’m more sympathetic to your opposition here. I think it needs a little context though. There are a whole host of industries in the US that get tax credits and even large subsidies just because they have filled the campaign coffers of congressmen. Obama has said that those moving jobs overseas will have their special privileges abolished. While I’m not too big on protectionism, I’d like to see all such privileges ended, I’m happy with any policy that takes away a lot of them.
But yes, I do share your ambivalence. And Obama did go to far in the rhetoric - and he has said this since sewing up the nomination. I think it was a calculated decision from the start, personally (to have dramatic rhetoric and then ease back from it). That can be seen as politically necessary or deceitful, depending on your point of view. Either way I can live with it.
Sky Sources say the collapse of Lehman Brothers could see the ‘implosion’ of the banking sector. It is that unprecedented. Will we all be living in caves this time next week?
175.Thats Man Utds shirt sponsorship down the swannee then…..
Lehman is very heavy. These rumours that Merill Lynch might go under are even more remarkable. Even I know that they are huge. The “thundering herd” and all that.
An “end to boom and bust”?
Oh dear. Oh dear oh dear.
@171 - the term being used on Sky is “catastrophic”
AIG (and others) may be in trouble too (per Telegraph)
find the idea of this lying, loathsome, disgusting little man ever taking high office again so awful that I’d rather Brown continued until the bitter end just to make sure Reid didn’t get a sniff.”
Paulo-as a Scot, I totally agree! However, rest assured-its NOT going to happen! It was just dreamt up by a sassenach hack who doesn’t even know who he is!!
Nitynite.
Time to play guess the drop in the FTSE tomorrow
7%?
I’m wondering whether to bail out on my share holdings. God knows what the FTSE is going to do tomorrow.
FTSE down 300 in the morning?
182 We need Gabble..
Looks like Bank of America has gone into talks to buy Merrill Lynch having just given up on Lehman Brothers.
185 Yes, Gabble is required tomorrow, just to see him say ‘FTSE down 400 points’
Banking stocks should be uuuuh interesting tomorrow
Fraser Nelson on R4 now
I think this could actually be the end of monetary capitalism, not just banking. By next Wednesday, notes and coins will be useless, and we’ll be reduced to barter.
I’m alright, cause I’ve got two duck eggs, a faggot of withies, and a leathern pail.
177. In short, no. This is shake out. Painful but a shake out.
You can bet some banks are going to come out of this rather well.
189 I have some scotch, I’ll swap it for a copy of your novel which will serve me well as my 1000 TV stations shut down one by one
189. I will take those two duck eggs. I have 2000 shares in Taylor Wimpey to exchange.
190 If they can find the liquidity to do anything about it…..
Asia opens at midnight, it wouldn’t surprise me if a couple of their markets have 10% falls.
I would like to see Gordo come out in face of what is going on and try and say Britain is best placed to ride out current economic difficulties.
195 He can’t - he is too busy getting on with the job
182/184
Total FTSE meltdown!!!!
could be down 15% - Labour has wiped out the UK economy!!!
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL!!!!!!!!!!!
195 Funny enough, MTF, it might just help him. Party politicking while all this is going on? Won’t wash.
194 HANG SENG could go negative!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I might be buying the WHOLE of Hang Seng for the price of a Watford player tomorrow!
197 Ave It - I hope you are wearing red braces - its all about Ave It’s Unit Trust trading
195. And his few remaining lickspittles will exhalt Gordon as the best man to guide us through those economic difficulties.
All about Labour wiping out the savings of the working class - whereas all the Labour public school MPs are laughing on their inheritances!!!
As someone said earlier today - labour are C*** you know the phrase!!!
195. As we sit here, Gordon is making the right long-term decisions for Britain’s future.
And his long-term decision is to swear at his computer, hurl his cellphone at Baroness Scotland, then run and hide in the cupboard under the Number 10 stairs, next to the hoover.
197. So Lab to blame for Lehmann. Bizarre interpretation of events
198 I doubt anyone will believe it. You have to say something that is credible.
EE AW EE AW EE AW EE AW
Has someone arrested Nick Palmer yet???
All Labour MPs amd supporters should be detained immediately!!!!!
204 clearly down to Labour - Lehman was fine under the Tories…..
FTSE to fall tomorrow available at 1.34 on Betfair - surprisingly generous?
ie c75% implied probablility.
Also, might this be one US campaign where “events” are financial/economic and thus help Obama?
vintage ave it
Sky News trying to contain their delight at the meltdown of the world economy - yellow banner merely reads ‘Breaking News - we are all f*cked’
I don’t know if this has been mentioned but how much would a leadership election cost? Wasn’t the cost of the contest for the deputy leadership estimated at £2 million? Can Labour afford that sort of money given their finances and a General Election in 2010 at the latest?
Irving Kristol once said that a Liberal was someone who saw no problem in a 16 year old girl appearing with multiple middle aged men in a pornographic film, as long as she was paid minimum wage.
SeanT - why did I never realise about Europe before? In my defence, I was a Europhile so I didn’t bother to look at it that closely. I liked the idea, and didn’t fancy spending time with the crazies, so I didn’t think much of the issue. Poor defence, but more joy in heaven over a single repentant etc etc…
John Reid? Capable of the challenge, could beat Brown (as the anyone but Brown candidate), has held high enough office to be taken seriously as a PM, not scared, hates the PM, nothing to lose, decent media performer, the only Labour member I don’t think Cameron would relish facing.
With Cruddas ruling himself out, and most of the Cabinet being wee timorous beasties, I’m not sure a kamikaze mission by Reid isn’t beyond the realms of possibility - in the absence of anyone else who is serious.
Brown v Reid - Brown would fight to the teeth to stop Reid. It would be an unpopularity contest for many in the party: who do you hate less? A proper battle of the big beasts - no limit hold’em, no stone left unthrown, no backbencher not browbeaten into line. I would love to see it, just for the theatre…
Britain would have been best placed if Gordo hadn’t ramped up an economic boom, if the FSA had had control of what the banks were doing, and if he hasnt allowed public pending to get out of control.
208 - 75% drop in FTSE tomorrow?!!!!!!!!!!!!
209 - LOL charlie how long have you been posting here - its a new name to me…
210 - it should say ‘Gordon achieves what Hitler failed to do - the destruction of Britain’!!!!!!!!!!
210. This is why I LOVE Sky News. They do good drama.
I wonder if Gordon still thinks that government backed mortgages are a good idea after this?
AVE IT SENSIBLE CITY REPORT
—————————
Following the TOTAL MELTDOWN of global stock markets caused by Labour TOTAL INCOMPETENCE, it is projected that all shares combined on FTSE, DOW, CAC40, HANG SENG and NIKKEI are now worth less than Mark Senior’s gold coin collection!!!!!!
(No change re Nikkei)
No Ave It - Betfair says only a 75% chance that it will fall AT ALL.
In other words, shouldn’t it be 1.01 to fall tomorrow?
The power of PB?
Now down to 1.12 in admittedly thin trading.
218
yes I was being my usual self!
It should indeed be 1.01!!!
So, there is going to be a big fall in the stock markets tomorrow, Airlines, tourism and banks will be hit very hard. Oil is going to shoot up after Hurricane Ike. Doesn’t look like a very good day on the stock market at all.
217 - Ave It on top form tonight!!!
I have cash, all instantly available and so far inflation hasnt wiped it and won’t.
Just a few names to mention to people as it appears a few institutuions may end up going to the wall/Chapter 11.
Santander, Bank of America (a lot of money for Merrill apparently like $30billion), JP Morgan, Schroders Co-Op Bank, HSBC, Nationwide…
All of which will probably come out of this turmoil relatively stronger.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of all of this is currently less visible. China. Its losing its edge in expert competitiveness, ist invested an awful lot of money overseas which is getting caught up in the credit crunch (there is even a conspiracy theory amongst a few Chinese that the West encouraged them to invest in all these institutions that are now in trouble) and is facing some serious domestic financial issues. Its about to get a sharp lesson in global capitalism if its not careful.
216. Well I heard a desperate Labour MP calling for her party to step in and ‘direct’ the economy a day or two ago. I think we will hear a lot more of that kind of wild talk in the weeks ahead - Labour’s implosion and world events could give old fashioned socialism a new albeit limited, lease of life.
And certainly it’s a given now that the endgame of the current downturn will be a massive increase in public debt in many major economies as the state has to pick up the tab for bank failures and the collateral damage to the real economy caused by them.
But the consequences for Labour electorally are going to be devastating. A frightened public are going to turn in vast numbers to Cameron’s Tories for ’safety first’.
214. Ave it you suck, I’ve been posting here for nearly a year!!
Also is Alitalia going to be flying tomorrow? Before the weekend they said they only had enough fuel to last until tomorrow and they couldn’t afford any more. Has the Italian government put anymore money in?
4. He already tried to last Wednesday, but he couldn’t even get that right.
224
I think the Governor of the Bank of England might resign first,
re 27 Brown’s more-incompetent-than-most last budget was a cast iron reason to sack Brown. I don’t believe Blair was taken in, unlike all the order-paper-waving demented Labour sheep on the back benches. Perhaps he was secretly inwardly smiling knowing that Gordon now had more than enough rope to hang himself.
Will Lehman Brother coallapsing be Gordon Browns saviour? If the financial markets and banking system goes into complete melt-down this week, then surely the Labour plotters will have to back off? How’s it going to look in what could be the worst weeks for the City since October 1929, for Labour to be falling apart in an internal bust up over the leadership?
This could be the break Browns looking for?
Surely there’s a material difference between investment banks and standard banks?
136.
This from the BBC website and shockwaves will be felt by banks around the globe.
How I hate Mondays
Preparations are being made for US investment bank Lehman Brothers to file for bankruptcy protection.
The firm was pushed to the brink on Sunday after UK bank Barclays pulled out of talks to buy most of Lehman.
If no new financing is found before Wall Street opens on Monday, Lehman will have to seek so-called Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
This could result in a severe shock to the global financial system, as banks unwind their complex deals with Lehman.
It could take weeks or even months to complete and put banks around the world in a state of extreme uncertainty
230, I reckon he’s safe anyway. But the worse the economy gets, the worse a leadership election would look. Three months of careerist infighting whilst people are losing their jobs and possibly homes would not endear Labour to the disaffected masses.
re 140 Nick, still no Tories?
From CNBC:
American International Group will announce an asset sale or capital injection as soon as tonight, or sometime tomorrow, CNBC has learned.
The insurance giant, which declined comment, is pursuing a three-part plan to raise $50 billion in liquidity. It is trying to raise billions from private equity firms, and is also in talks with Warren Buffett, CNBC has learned.
AIG [AIG 12.14 -5.41 (-30.83%) ] also is working toward an immediate sale of its airplane leasing operation (ILFC), its domestic auto finance business and more, sources said. It also has apparently received approval to move some capital from its regulated insurance operations to its unregulated business.
All of this is an attempt to create liquidity before markets open Monday in an effort to stem what seems a certain downgrade from ratings agencies, people familiar with the situation said.
AIG executives have been meeting throughout the weekend with financial advisors, potential liquidity providers and potential purchasers of the firm’s assets.
AIG’s stock dropped 25 percent on Friday on concerns it will have trouble raising the capital it needs to cover potential losses and to prevent the ratings agencies from cutting its credit rating.
233. Exactly. Of course, though, the worse this financial crisis gets (and judging by this news about Lehman, Darlings assesment that its the worst crisis since the depression, amy not be far off the mark) the more it harms Labours ultimate electoral prospects when the general election finally comes.
Thats assuming we don’t have a government of Unity at some point.
Some decent odds still on offer (1.86) on Betfair for FTSE to be down on opening.
See 15th September daily slots:
09.00 - 09.20 O
09.00 - 10.00 O
09.20 - 09.40 O
09.40 - 10.00 O
10.00 - 10.20 O
etc
O/T but Tsipi Livni apparently has a 14-point lead over Mofaz for the Kadima leadership.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/14/israelandthepalestinians
I just went to a really interesting debate hosted by the Zionist Federation. Melanie Phillips was arguing against negotiating with Hamas, whereas the former Head of Mossad was arguing that pragmatism demands that Israel should talk to them. Interesting crowd, and interesting debate.
Part of Phillips’ case was that by negotiating with terrorists, you legitimise them, and undermine the ‘moderates’ in Fatah. Whilst I found her case compelling, I asked whether - although this gives them legitimacy in the International Community - whether the group that negotiates ultimately destroys themselves in the eyes of the people they represent.
I used the example of Northern Ireland - Hume and Trimble won the Nobel Peace Prize for agreeing the Good Friday accord, for which their parties (the moderates - UU and SDLP) have been punished by their respective communities and Sinn Fein and the DUP (the more extreme parties) now dominate Stormont.
Would it not be better, I asked, that negotiations were conducted with the Islamicist party Hamas (more extreme) so that the resulting Palestinian Authority could be dominated by Fatah, rather than see Fatah destroyed for finding an agreement with Israel and allowing Hamas a generation in charge of the resultant Palestinian Authorty/State?
She refuted my premise, saying that the extreme parties are powerful in Stormont because we negotiated with the IRA to a degree. She had previously held that peace in Northern Ireland came because the IRA were essentially defeated militarily.
I hadn’t heard her live before - I have to say, although I disagree with much of what she believes, she is clearly phenomenally bright, and a very fluent and compelling speaker.
Anyway, time to turn in…
“But the worse the economy gets, the worse a leadership election would look.”
The worse the economy gets, the worse labour will look anyway.
223 Nationwide????!!!! Oh you mean getting stronger - I’ve got £150,000 in there - I was getting worried there….
223 yes my China unit trust is a total disaster but I’ve only got £250 in it (oops nearer £200 now!)
225 sorry Charlie it sometimes takes me a while to spot new names TEE HEE
231. Well Lehmans has no depositors - but it does have major creditors, many of whom do. If the authorities decide to let Lehmans go, they will have to come up with some sort of plan for defending those exposed directly or indirectly to the collapse. So one way or another the taxpayer is going to be on the hook.
Six months ago I wrote a memo suggesting that we could be facing a rerun on a global scale of the Scandinavian banking crises of the early 1990s - that now looks increasingly likely.
Can anyone advise on the magnitude of amounts owed by Lehman to UK banks?
If Lehman goes under, what are the chances of it leading to a major UK bank getting into serious trouble?
240. Don’t boast too loudly - Gordon will slap a ’solidarity’ tax on you.
241 - all coming home to roost now. Got no Forex position at the moment - this is just so unpredicable. Get ready for the rollercoaster of rollercoaster weeks in the financial world! I thought the Federal Reserve were going to be able to keep this ponzi scheme afloat until after the November election - I have serious doubts about that now.
241. And what, do you think, will be the endpoint globally? Recession or depression?
In the midst of all this sturm und drang, I think it’s worth remembering that not one of the major economies has actually yet gone into technical recession. Not even the USA. Indeed American growth is actually stronger than expected, as of this moment.
I’m not belittling the crisis, and I’m sure some countries will face recession (amongst them probably the UK); but so far the Credit Crunch is not as bad as the early 90s dip, let alone the oil shock of the 70s or, heaven forbid, the Worldwide Slump of 1929.
243 re the China? - can I get tax relief on the losses OH NO its an ISA.
Labour only give tax relief to UNMARRIED MOTHERS!!!!!!!!!
244. Agreed FX is very unpredictable at present. Normally buy bonds would be the trade, but given the emerging fiscal dimension and the fact they have already rallied pretty hard in recent weeks, I’m not sure. Gold might well get a renewed bid, though more commodities generally I’m bearish on.
245. Recession, and quite a deep one - probably a bit worse than the early 1990s.
230. Agreed. Momentum to force Brown out has not gathered pace today. If Lehman dominates the headlines over the next couple of days, everyone will have to back off for now. Everyone will think this is too serious a time to cause any further uncertainty.
Undue pessimism on here re tomorrow’s FTSE fall perhaps. IG are currently quoting 5320 to sell - representing a fall of around 100 points on Friday’s close - equivalent to less than 2%.
FWIW, I’ve sold at this level for a fiver a point with a stop if the FTSE goes against me by 30 points, i.e. it reaches 5350 or above, leaving me nursing a £150 loss.
I am (genuinely) worried now about the FTSE tomorrow and feel I shoul bail out on some holdings. Come on experts, help me out!
There you go, it looks like Lehman holding company to go into bankruptcy..leaving the various operating companies to continue they hope.
240. Get it out of there. A Building Society? God no.
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Dow futures down 307, implies that FTSE will be off by about 150 tomorrow morning, as things stand at the moment.
re 251 you can’t get anywhere safer than Northern Rock
FTSE to open down 100. Potential collapse of banking system.
245 A recession of some sort, but I doubt if it’ll be one of the worst we’ve experienced. The fact that commodity prices are now coming down is helpful.
Big investment banks have collapsed in the past (eg Drexel) without bringing down the whole system.
255. Thanks for that cheering note, EDW.
252 LOL
253/255 FTSE could be down 1000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Can someone answer my question?
Approx how much would Lehman owe to each of say Barclays, RBS, HSBC, Lloyds, HBOS?
I fear we are going to get a lot of ‘Gordon is the best man to lead us through this economic crisis’ spouted at us over the next few days
They really must think we are thick.
If they can’t handle Northern Rock (and they really cocked that one up) they are never going to be trusted now that we are in even choppier waters.
And this is supposed to make Brown more secure?
All it means is he is surrounded by cowards and cretins.
IG Index suggesting a 90 point loss for the FTSE tomorrow and the Dow down 255.
259 I have some money in HSBC………..
259 I doubt if anyone here would know.
250. Much has already been factored in Peter, at least thats the hope since the Lehman issue was known before markets closed Friday so maybe that will help avoid the big big falls.
I do, however, also think that its hard for the spread makers to price up such a situation. Suggesting that a market is expected to fall 100 point is hell of a drop to put up.
The other negatives are that more news is coming out such as AIG in particular (what happens to its credit rating in particular) and that Lehman really is going under rather than getting taken over.
On the plus, the BoA Merrill news may lift spirits.
Also, oil/gas might rise as there are rumours of a shortage of gas in the US following this huuricane. There isnt really a shortage but market men react disproportionately to anything regarding the US supply. This may boost oil & gas stocks, helping push the FTSE.
Swings and roundabouts isnt it. I’m avoiding it like tha plague.
259. No idea but Sky News have reported that British banking’s exposure to Lehmans was ‘limited’.
Bank of America plans $46bn deal for Merrill Lynch
By James Quinn, Wall Street Correspondent
Last Updated: 10:57pm BST 14/09/2008
Bank of America (BoA) has turned its attention to a possible $200bn (£111bn) merger with Merrill Lynch after pulling out of talks to save Lehman Brothers.
Sky news keeping it low profile…………
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Barclays-has-pulled-out-of-talks-to-buy-struggling-US-investment-bank-Lehman-Brothers/Article/200809215099249?lpos=Business_0&lid=ARTICLE_15099249_Barclays%2Bhas%2Bpulled%2Bout%2Bof%2Btalks%2Bto%2Bbuy%2Bstruggling%2BUS%2Binvestment%2Bbank%2BLehman%2BBrothers.
267 sorry re long internet link…….
263. Fair enough. I was just trying to get a feel for things.
By the way - if a large British bank did fail, how much would depositors lose (of amounts over £35k so not covered by protection fund?)
I think an impression has been given that depositors could lose all their money (over £35k) but surely in a winding-up they would get a very large percentage in the pound - maybe in the region of 90%?
265. Thanks for that.
Sky News are really ramping this Lehman business up whilst the BBC pursue a more ‘All is well’ line - Gordo must be in the gallery.
I nearly choked this morning when the BBC were reporting that Labour had gone up in the latest poll…
don’t you just love impartial journalism
264 Suggesting that a market is expected to fall 100 point is hell of a drop to put up.
Yokel -frankly, it’s peanuts if one is talking about the possible collapse of one or more US Bank. Furthermore, it’s only about the same amount by which the FTSE rose on Friday, so a mere one day correction one might say.
33.”Partisan views aside, whilst I can’t see Reid being interested in the leadership of the party, he could be the Brutus figure.”
Now that is a scenario that I could see unfolding, the other Brutus figure I have always favoured is Geoff Hoon. Both love the Labour party and do not have a great fondness for Gordon Brown, and neither I suspect have any ambitions left to ever lead it. I would not underestimate either of these politicians if they do set out to get the job done while leaving another candidate with a clear run at the job.
80,81&82.Those rumours were aired last year after conveniently being leaked at the time Reid was being seriously viewed as a possible challenger to Brown in a leadership contest….
Another reason Reid might finally want to settle some old scores?
259, I’m not sure its that simple to know. I’m just guessing but I suspect with all kinds of financial vehicles theres all kinds of indirect as well as direct exposures.
Also I’m not sure if someone would readily publish that data right now, for the effect it would have.
272. Have the Tories ‘collapsed’ to a mere 20 point lead rather than 25? Cameron to resign no doubt, Labour gain Hague’s previously watertight Richmond.
I wonder if the real trade here isn’t to bet on some emergency rate cuts.
273. Still a hell of a fall to start making money from thats what I mean. Theres a lot of scope there tyo swing wildly off, though the stop order takes some of that away of course.
277 - Very possible, but would the banks observe the rate cuts? I’m not sure they would if Lehman goes under.
273. What Im getting at is not the actual FTSE but the money making punter aspect of it. Sorry, if I’d said that first that might have helped get my point across.
In case the Tory Conference gets a bit boring………..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/7615733.stm
278 Yokel - should I hit the buffers, I shall expect you to send me a pack of Cuppa Soup!
280 If the index falls by 100 points in early trading, then it quite likely to fall 150 or 200 points. I guess we’ll have a good idea very soon when Tokyo opens. Hold on everyone!
Per Sky - per Reuters, NBC is reporting that a £50bn fund is being formed to save troubled companies.
Sorry 284 is vague - I didn’t catch all details.
I THINK it’s being co-ordinated by US Government.
282. Oxtail is all I got. God knows when I bought it but should have a shelf life of about 10 years since it was probably irridiated when it was made.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A rare emergency trading session opened Sunday afternoon to allow Wall Street dealers in the $455 trillion derivatives market reduce their exposure to a potential bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers.
IG are currently pricing the Dow to be down 265 points or circa 2.2%, uncomfortable yes, but hardly catastrophic.
284/285
Ive heard talk of a financial backstop for the Lehman insolvency. Would that be it?
Lehmans reported holding of debts..$500 odd billion, or in SeanT’s world about 14 prossies….
I’m gonna buy FTSE futures, IG calling down 87 right now.
288. Dow Futures down 300 so IG may be undercooking it.
On the plus side Merrills board meeting on an offer from Bank of Americaat about $29 a throw.
Most Asian markets are closed today
230 GIN, Morris Dancer and Mike L. Spot on. The FTSE is predicted to fall sharply tomorrow by those here who can read the economic runes and Betfair reflects this. So that’s tomorrow’s News Headlines. Whatever we may all think about Gordon Brown, this global credit crunch is not his personal fault. It is though starting to feel like his “Lucky Joker”.
The general public don’t like Gordon Brown but the worsening global economic news actually protects him against a coup. The electorate will view any attempted coup now as a desperate attempt by a handful of relatively unknown MPs to selfishly seek to hold onto their seats at the next General Election.
I read somewhere that Brown intends to “apologise” to the Labour Conference for his mistakes. Well, I wouldn’t advise that. The increasingly worrying economic circumstances are, perversely, his best opportunity yet to save himself. He should stand resolute and unapologetic about his record for economic competence,(whether deserved or not), as the only person equipped to steer and steady the good ship Britain through the current exceptionally choppy and dangerous financial waters that we face.
I have not been impressed with the dour, boring, repetitive mantra of Brown and Labour that, “We are getting on with the job”, but as the economy threatens to implode then the public will be inclined to ” Always keep a-hold of Nurse, for fear of finding something worse”.
289. Long interview on Sky with US financial journlist.
Apparently the focus is on organising an “orderly” liquidation of Lehman so it can be done in a way which has minimal impact on other banks.
No chance of Lehman being saved.
CNBC is saying that they will make an announcement between 1&2 am.
How many people do Lehman employ in London?
297 - 5000 according to the beeb.
Simon Hoggert on Nick Clegg’s “Quibbling and Avoidance” session:
“[Clegg] announced that the Lib Dems were the most green party and the most European party. This was clearly meant to be a huge applause line, but the reaction was barely audible, as if a very noisy snowflake had landed.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/sep/14/libdemconference.liberaldemocrats2?gusrc=guido
Amazing how, almost without a mention, the Government has twisted the arm of Nationwide to acquire both the Derbyshire & Cheshire Building Societies, respectively the 9th and the 11th largest in the land, without any vote, let alone any prospect of depositors receiving any windfall premiums, which just demonstrates just how dire the situation is.
One has to assume that the Government has underwritten any losses which might arise - as taxpayers aren’t we entitled to know about such “details”?
300. Nationwide members would have liked to have had a vote on taking on the liabilities of a couple of bust institutions too. Unless, as you say, the government has underwritten the deal…
300. Peter. Derbyshire may have been saved by the Nation. What prospects Derby County, after winning 3 points on Saturday?
148.”Gordon doesn’t prompt such strong feelings either way, in my experience (except in some on here!).
I’d *prefer* it if everyone thought the problem was who our leader was. Much simpler to solve than fuel prices.2
Oh dear Nick…
161.Might want to moderate that post because of the way its presented?
300. I think if the government had significantly underwriiten the deals then it may well have had to be announced.
Woohoo, oil down.
Jackie Ashley not pulling her punches in the Guardian.
The Labour party could be on the verge of destruction
“Out of money, and facing an electoral smash and a massive factional fallout, it may not survive as a major political force
The scatter-gun attacks of ex-ministers and low-ranking MPs over the past few days stem from their deep frustration at the failure, as they see it, of cabinet ministers to tell Brown all this. Perhaps if they knew how many urgent conversations there have been at cabinet level they would feel reassured, though the prime minister would not be.
The private cabinet analysis runs like this. Yes, there has to be a renewed policy debate, for instance on windfall taxes. But that is not enough. The briefing and counter-briefing coming from No 10 continues to suggest a dysfunctional centre - as witnessed by the precipitate departure of the latest adviser, Paul Sinclair, who had barely been there long enough to turn his computer on. There is still a feeling that discipline can be recovered by bullying; in fact, that option has long passed.”
“There are two possible crisis moments. Even the most pro-Brown government members suggest that if the economy has not picked up by the spring, he will have to resign - and believe he will not want to be the man to lead Labour to one of its worst ever defeats. But other ministers say things have to be resolved earlier. If Labour loses the coming Glenrothes byelection, key figures will go to him and say it’s all over. If he tried to hang on, I’m told, there would be cabinet resignations. This may seem a lot to hang on one byelection; Brown would doubtless say that governments have always had mid-term losses and gone on to recover.”
306. Who really thinks the economy is going to somehow just turn on its heels and improve by next April? They know its going to take longer.Its nonsense talk by people saying they know Brown has to go but just dragging it out in the hope someone else has the wherewithal to do the dirty work.
If they are going to get rid of him they should just get it done.
And on that, I’m off, too many financial facts and fugures and I’m knackered now.
307.Agreed.
302 stjohn - Ironically, until this season, The Derbyshire B.S. were official sponsors of Derby County FC. I still they may struggle to finish above the bottom 6-8 and on this basis, after Saturday’s win, I’ve taken Coral’s 10-1 and offered the same bet on Betfair at 6-1. It’s a licence to print money.
BTW, after your recent re-jigging of political bets, are you still holding your buy bet on the SNP?
304 Yokel - if you’re still there please send that oxtail soup - I’ve dropped £150 on my FTSE bet when my stop loss cut in - just goes to show I shouldn’t listen to all those pessimists on PB.com.
I think I may have posted this here before, but may I briefly vouch that there are skeletons in the closet, well-known to some brownies, which are very likely to prevent Reid from even challenging for the leadership.
(OT)
Happy 24th Birthday to gorgeous hunky Prince Harry
but also
Sad 2nd Deathday to handsome actor Pablo Santos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ShhrfJ2hV8
I remember that it was in early November 1990 that Tony Marlow MP said in the HoC that there would be a new PM before Christmas. I thought he was talking out of his elbow, but it turned out to be true. At times like this, things can move very quickly. I think it’s 50/50 whether GB will be PM in 4 months’ time.
310: Yes, some posters here confuse the wish (gloom and doom, yummy) with the fact - always dangerous with betting…
On the economy, yokel, it depends what you take as an improvement. The leading indicators should be improving - e.g. I expect interest rates to be well below their peak by mid-2009. Doesn’t mean people will feel suddenly richer, but potentially less grim and more willing to give some credit to gritty staying power.
Hey, I’ve just been moderated - hasn’t happened for years!
Australian share market down 0.7%.
Dow Future down 250.
S&P Future down 32.
Both down around 2.5%.
Alan Milburn not John Reid