Glasgow East - and now the wait
July 24th, 2008
The polls closed at 10pm but the Glasgow East betting will continue right through until the result is known.
I’ve not been convinced either way in the this contest and have refrained from betting today. Maybe that was a mistake.
The whole atmosphere has been dominated by the polls - particularly the latest one and this has had a big impact on the betting. Whether what punters are doing is in any way predictive we’ll know before very long.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
But at least it has been a fascinating evening!
Started off thinking labour would win this easy, for the last couple of weeks I’ve changed my mind numerous times. The only surprise will be if this isn’t close.
Relaunch #44,032 starts tomorrow… Can’t wait!
Guardian reporting that the SNP have won it by a “slither”.
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/07/glasgow_east_byelection_live.html
The Guardian muddying the waters?
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/07/glasgow_east_byelection_live.html
10.15pm
I’m at the Tollcross Park Leisure centre near Shettleston Road where tonight’s count is taking place. You remember the leisure centre I lauded yesterday for its nice pools? That’s the one.
Before I go any further, it’s surely time to say three cheers to all the activists who have given their time and energies to supporting their party political beliefs of whatever hue in this byelection campaign.
A first-hand account of by an SNP activist reveals it has been a busy polling day, with plenty of rumours flying about.
The polls have now closed so I can now report the latest rumour doing the rounds this end: the SNP has won this seat by a slither, while the Tories will end up in third place behind Labour, with the Lib Democrats coming fourth.
Liberal Democrat Voice’s Stephen Tall is pleased with Ian Robertson’s campaign for the party, regardless of tonight’s result. “Whatever vote Ian gets, he personally has come out of this well,” says Tall.
Can I emphasise it’s only rumour, not fact, but if it’s true and the SNP does win, the political earth will truly be shaking, as Alex Salmond predicted. Now we have to wait to find out.
Well Mike, whatever the result, your predictions that it could be very close, on a relatively high turn out, currently look good.
I cant stay up to watch this one - shame.
Re: the whole Wintertons thing, if Cameron is trying to force them out it is perhaps a sign that he finally “gets” it. The public in the 21st century will simply not put up with the kind of narcissistic bullsh1t they stand for…
3 I predict an emphasis on making the right (and tough) long term decisions
heres hoping there is decent coverage from the BBC…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/23/where-do-the-lib-dems-go-from-here/#comments see 206
Forecast:
SNP 41
LAB 40
Con 9
Lib 5
Oth 5
by Richard Howell July 23rd, 2008 at 9:41 pm
7, No they will be listening and learning….
BBC Scotland just started a rumour that SLab have lost.
news 24 said the most optimistic Lab prediction was close and the most pessimistic we’ve lost it
Newsnight Scotland - Labour reactions range from ‘close’ to ‘we’ve lost it’
lol - Labour going down in Glasgow East
I am going for SNP four figures
curtice - balance of probability snp has pulled it off
Radio Scotland: long faces in the Labour Party…
If Labour do this where would this rank in terms of by election shockers for all parties?
Come on the SNP….I will laugh my ass off if SLab lose this.
John Curtice is cock-a-whoop to say the least.
BBC seem to be implying a SNP win?
can it be true? GE imminent?
ScotBeeb are claiming a Nat victory? O RLY?
SNP moving back in on Betfair…..
“It’s the hope I can’t bear” - John Cleese, clockwise
Paralells with Eastbourne being drawn
Turnout reporting at the 45-46% mark.
15 - someone on BBC seems to be saying the earthquake may have hit
To shamelessly nick a Mc Donalds ad….
I’m loving it
SNP tightening quite fast - too fast for me to get on
18. BBC Scot hedging bets between Close for “Labour” and “SNP just winning”
BBC has a tendency of doing Labour’s bidding; wouldn’t surprise me if they talked up the SNP only for Labour to win. What is Sky News saying?
Radio Scotland saying turnout could be as high as 46%
Surely the BBC are just getting their retaliation in first so the labour win looks better if they have predicted a loss
Mark my words - tonight could be a huge night for UK political betting…
If Labour loses there is a high probability of a quick Brown departure and an early election. Cameron could be PM within months.
If Labour wins, we’re odds on for 2010 with Brown as leader.
Sturgeon and Dougie Howser MP now on
Sturgeon - too close to call
Dougie Howser - We want to win this by-election (lol, dimwit)
Is anyone watching Sky?
As I mentioned earlier in the day:
“It’s Maggie wot won it!”
Boulton: “less than 1,000 votes in it”
I hope Labour cling on by the skin of the teeth, it will still result in a negative narrative for Labour. However, i’m worried that a defeat will be the end of Brown. That cannot be. Yet.
@28:
Gah! Doogie Howser = Would, Doogie Alexander = Double-bagger.
HTH.
Sky - SNP are talking of a political earthquake (Angus Robertson) - that may just mean its very very close
Is sky streamed on the internet… I am streaming news 24 on the computer while I do some late work
Boulton - worst case 3am.
Nice ‘By-Election Special’ for Glasgow East on the BBC. Whereas was this sort of coverage for Crewe and Nantwich, Henley or Haltemprice and Howden?
Didnt Gordo alledgly say something is bound to go wrong…
37 - There was quite a good By-Election Special for Crewe and Nantwich, but it was pretty thread-bare for Henley and Haltemprice IIRC.
35 - I think you can get audio only.
30. The state funeral has been an especially popular decision.
Time to hold nerve now for the win or trade for profit. Judging by the look on Alexander’s face (D) I’ll hold on.
I hope there wont be any recounts
35. You have to register…
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Sky-Live-TV
36 - 3am? Get it over with quick, please!
please, where can I get coverage on the internet?
Dougie says ‘Of course Gordon was on leaflets’
Dougie is wise however
Sturgeon corrects him
Dougie - ‘Gordon was in Jedda’
If Labour win Dougie will be delighted, if they lose he will be disappointed.
He really is a political giant
39. Crewe and Nantwich was better than the latter two but I don’t recall a dedicated studio manned by Jon Sopel.
Click on listen live ALex SAOR ALBA
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radioscotland/
High turnout ALWAYS works against Labour…..
Biggest Lab meltdown of all time!!!
Labour will never win an election again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PS Lab = small party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Those of us who watched the Holyrood results come in last year, will remember fondly the twitch that wee Dougie developed as it became clear that it was all unravelling for SLab.
37. To be fair, both Henley and H&H were relative non-events. C&N merited a better show though.
40 thanks, I’m stuck with the beeb then.
32 chris M - Cameron’s bike got nicked today while he was doing the shopping, himself, at Tesco. Now what do you think that little detail says to British families? Cameron is one of them.
News 24 just showed Cameron launching the Tory Glasgow campaign with Davena personally. compare and contrast with Labour in Henley.
They cannot beat David Cameron. Impossible. I do not care who their leader is. Let’s have Brown gone and a general election because Cameron will win it.
45 Alex in Madrid go to bbc.co.uk go to news click on the link for streamed coverage
Off-topic:
The News of the World are peeved that European law has sided with Max “My Old man supported Hitler” Mosley. Will Rupert Murdoch jump ship soon…?
They’ve picked the two most typical looking politicians in the world to talk in the studio.
Old, ugly, suits.
YES
Finally you can watch Sky online
here:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Sky-Live-TV
used to be only audio which was annoying
SNP gain Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Brown gain time to spend with the family
And it’s bye bye Gord !!
Noo-Labour insiders are forecasting an SNP victory with a majority of 500. Check it out.
40. possibly, tho’ as a cyclist myself, what sort of a dummy locks their bike to a bollard, allowing it to be lifted off!
48 Labour = “others”!!!
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!
Lab = HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Brown to resign tomorrow GOODBYE!
Worse result for labour than when whatsisname lost in easington on 1931!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
58 - sorry that was to test at 41
52. That won’t work if he actually is in Madrid
56. Given my parents are in Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, and my Dad is now adamant he’s voting SNP (which shocked me, given he’s very much a Union man) it would be a scary call to go for a beahding strategy, but the mood is thick enough to narrow it substantially.
Still SNP 2.82 on BF…..
If I didn’t have too much on that side already I’d take some more
More from the Guardian:
10.55pm
Turnout for this byelection seems to have been better than some feared. I chat with the spokesman for the polling staff who tells me a survey of polling stations conducted at nine o’clock this evening indicated a turnout of about 41%. Add to that the postal votes - which are expected to make up 5% of all votes cast - and the tally goes up to about 46% with still one hour to go. That suggests the number of people who voted this time might be on a par with the rate at the 2005 general election (48%). But it’s a survey, and we won’t know for sure until verifying is completed, which will take a while.
Boxes from the 76 polling stations situated on 40 polling sites are still coming in to be verified. That means tellers tip the ballot papers on to the tables and check that each ballot box contains the right number. They are hard at it.
40. Absolutely Cameron would beat Brown in a General Election right now. My concern is if Brown is forced out without an immediate General Election, a ’steady-hand’ comes in and we end up with a 20 seat Conservative majority in two years rather than 150. I would still like Brown to stay until the bitter end. It’s not that we need him but his being there does help.
Jo Swinson = fit
Oh shit
Brown is sccrooed:
http://www.youtube.com/user/ACLBlair
Jo Swinson and Murdo Fraser united in marginality for this by-election.
oooh Jo hits back with a nifty bit of self-promotion and tales of a tasty Lib dem gain in Dunfermline
60. You mean Seaham in 1935, when MacDonald lost?
Bad news for you: he lost to the Official Labour candidate, Shinwell…
PS all over for obama = berlin = sheffield 1992
Brilliant performance by mccain on sky
Mccain might win all seats apart from dc
While you are all waiting for the result I thought you might enjoy the following from the Mosley judgement - just to show how going to law will save your reputation:
“Mr Thurlbeck [NoW journalist] also relied upon the fact that the Claimant [Mosley] was “shaved”. Concentration camp inmates were also shaved. Yet, as Mr Price pointed out, they had their heads shaved. The Claimant, for reasons best known to himself, enjoyed having his bottom shaved – apparently for its own sake rather than because of any supposed Nazi connotation. He explained to me that while this service was being performed he was (no doubt unwisely) “shaking with laughter”. I naturally could not check from the DVD, as it was not his face that was on display.”
67. Rather Swinson than Teather
The SNP lassie should see a hairdresser…
Sky News coverage (at the mo’) is dire. Just shows how desperate one can be; I’m watching Auntie Beeb!
Obama is not pulling away, I would be worried, Both Clinton and Dukakis were around 10-20 points ahead at this time during the process.
Come on, where’s gabble? We demand the Ave It/Gabble tag team!
The body language and responses from Douglas Alexander, under tough questioning by Jon Sopel, suggest Labour have either lost or pretty nearly lost.
Interesting perspective on the use of Gwyneth Dunwoody’s name in C&N but not David Marshall’s in Glasgow East. I guess there was no emotive capital for Labour to gain with Marshall.
72. Teather is potatoesque. Does she have a new seat for 2009/10?
78 - its more like the fact that he has had his hand majorly in the till for the last god knows how many years - hence the sudden resignation.
76 - Nowhere as entertaining as the UKPaul/Yokel combination.
77. Has he had plastic surgery? The point of his nose used to flap while he was speaking…
76
Yes where is Gabble, Dow Jones down 283 pts today, doesnt augur well for the footsie tomorrow…………
Any reason why BBC News is so booooooooooring? Are they trying to send everyone to sleep? CNN keeps you entertained and awake. This is dull, dull, dull.
No one else seems to have said it so far but if turn-out is c46% and if the SNP win, Mr Smithson has once again correctly outwitted the rest of us. He said that turn-out would be high and he said that would favour the SNP. Respect is due.
79. She’s fighting Brent Central.
Murdo Fraser is coming across very well as a decent communicator.
77 agreed
81 - Depends if you want comedy or drama.
Despite enthusiastic ramping for the Nats here the Betfair market drifts back to Labour….
‘Margarent Curran has talked too much and too long’, Amen to that. About 20 years too long, in my opinion.
89 - Horror?
83. Bang go my Barratt shares. Again.
92 - Depends on the ending.
(O/T but I’m just ploughing through ‘Hammer House of Horror’, a TV seris from 1980, did we really all look so appalling then?)
John Curtice can prove the impossible: he makes Professor Thrasher look not only intelligent, but highly incisive…!
BBC 5 live news SNP might be on the verge of a sensational result
I’ve turned the sound down and tuned into Radio Scotland, no politicians and it’s quite informative.
quote from reporter ( Didnt catch his name) on BBC “Labour dont think they have won, been getting gloomier from 2pm”
Another quote “first 12 months of Gordon Brown an absolute disaster”
Well, not wrong is he…..
Betfair hardly shifted in the past couple of hours or more…
If the SNP have won it will certainly kick the PH100. PB called it right at 50-50.
And… respect will be due to the posterior of the noble Jack W
I’m getting the impression that the SNP are going to win this, which makes Cricks’ spinning that it’s an anti-Labour vote not anti-Brown even more pathetic.
102 I heard that Crick used to be a member of Witney CLP.
Ming looks like he’s been dead for a week.
ooh SNP in to 2.7 now…. here we go
Ming - typically anti-Tory as ever. Hopeless.
104. Ming will be making a comeback - http://www.merrymedia.co.uk/%60images%60/stories/library/doyouremember/scotch_video_1.png
Civilised interview by Ming.
AVE IT is the greatest poster ever on here and looks forward to MCCAIN’S victory!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
103 I expect a pro-Labour bias from most BBC political reporters, but Crick is blatant with it. Though, having said that, so are Robinson and Marr most of the time.
SNP coming right in now on Betfair.
108 two years to retirement!!!!!
You’ve had a good run!!!!!!!!!
Anna Soubry will win by 30% in your seat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
108. Pass the bucket please. I’m feeling a bit queasy!
Interesting stuff from Ming.
109 you are indeed the greatest poster on PB Ave It.
Respect.
94 “did we really all look so appalling then?”
Don’t know about you - but I did.
Shouldn’t nurse have tucked Ming up by now? Seems cruel to keep him up so late.
Turnout 42.25%
42.25% turnout
BBC Scotland saying turnout 42.25%.
Turnout 42.25%
turnout 42.25%
42.25% turnout - official
Turnout 42.25%
42.25%
42,25% turnout
turnout 42.25%
Turnout 42.25%!
Turnout 42.25%
42.25 turnout. BBc
official turnout: 42% and a bit
114 You oviously lead a very sheltered life if you find Mings’ pompous ramblings interesting.
42.25 Turnout!!!!! OFFICIAL
Snap!
BBC - Conservatives say 3rd. LDs resigned to 4th.
Result before 1am, hooray!
Just in case anyone missed it 42.25!
result within the next hour- BBC
Anyone know what the turnout is?
Tories to take third! Congratulations to Davena Rankin
Result in an hour?
What’s that about great minds…?
BBC Radio Scotland - Official turnout 42.5%
“Labour have gone from glum to despondant”
Anyone know what the turnout is yet?
anyone know what the turnout was?
@arse I was slowest…. :o(
My initial thoughts on this by election were that the pensioner generation would never vote anything but Labour and would hold up their vote.It seems they’ve been enthused enough to get out and not only vote but switch to the SNP.
if you haven’t hear turnout is 42.25%
Sorry, I think I missed the turnout…….:)
Was turnout 42.25% by any chance ??
what was the turnout
Fourteen posts at the same time saying the same thing, surely a pb record.
Speed up everyone!
Thanks Devon… :o)
118-131 - your wish to inform us is commendable. Is this a record for consecutive identical posts on political betting?
HELP~! WHAT WAS THE TURNOUT AGAIN?
wonderful Tory result if that is true. We are not Labour, we fight for every vote in every seat. We don’t bleed tactical votes
WHAT WAS THE TURNOUT?
You won’t even be required to constantly monitor them on SLab as they will be fulfilled instantly. It’s a dedicated studio manned that can help you increase the twitch. Brown to do this is join the internet and talk to Labour.
Anyone know what turnout was?
Does the 42% include postals or not?
Steven Purcell was one of those who declined to stand for Labour
Sensational by-election Con gain…
…in Boston…
From the Boston Bypass Independents (I kid you not)
does anybody know the turnout?
BBC: “Is Brown a liability for Labour”.
Do you really need to ask? LOl LOL LOL
148 lol Jack. Looking good for….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzsWuqNlLK4
Tory candidate was interesting, the ‘feeling’ was that the Lib Dem candidate was ‘more impressive’ on the telly but she clearly appealed to the voters.
I hear turnout was 42.26%. Is that right?
Leader of Glasgow council - if you know the PM, he is capable of giving you ‘a little of the magic’
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA what a twit
Apparently lots of dejected Labour faces at the count.
stephen purcell, whoever he is, what an idiot on bbc. brown is the best man to lead us through the ‘international’ crisis…… lol to the power 10
161. I thought this was Jack’s anthem?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX3S1f_7dI4
STV coverage also now started online (and on TV in Scotland)
http://www.stv.tv/content/news/glasgow_east_byelection/index.html
Amazing stuff from Ming. You know things are bad when a friend from another party is sticking up for you - incredible stuff.
BY election Result
Boston Coastal ward
TORY GAIN
Con 344 BBI 306 LD 213 BNP 119 UKIP 88 LAB 44 t/out 37.3%
Turnin was 57.75.
Stephen Purcell was an original choice for the seat but declined to stand. There may be some investigation pending into a local land deal…*cough*
Turnout was between 40 and 44.99%.
Well done to all those who backed that. First show was 4/1, drifted out to 7/1 at one point and last price was 5/1.
Hats off to our host who predicted a decent turn out. Nick Palmer also got it pretty bang on IIRC.
164 Gordon Brown is Paul Daniels
Labour gain Debbie Mcgee
Oh this is such fun.
162 she was a senior trade union official and had stood in Glasgow before
Result expected at 1:30am, if no recount (big “if” surely).
Fiona Ross’s father was Secretary of State for Scotland in Harold Wilson’s cabinet, the late Willie Ross
142 (toontoon) Can you let me know when glum to despondent becomes utter misery…….
Hmmm in terms of turnout I went for 29.4% - thats a little lower than the actual figure. I also went for 9% Tories so hopefully I am a little low there too!
142 (toontoon) Can you let me know when glum to despondent becomes utter misery…….
176: unlike Bernard P she was a labour media hack!
Hmmm in terms of turnout I went for 29.4% - thats a little lower than the actual figure. I also went for 9% Tories so hopefully I am a little low there too!
#176
So is Fiona another dimmy drop-out a’la Polly Tonybee…?
I must say (having just caught up with posts of the last few hours), I’m amused by the fourteen!!! consecutive posts all giving the turnout…
Been on for nearly an hour now and does anyone else think it is strange that NOBODY has predicted a LAB win?
Big move to SNP underway on Betfair
I thought a low turnout favoured the SNP as I didn’t envisage the number of straight switchers from LAB to the SNP. It seems that people have turned out to give the entire Labour party a doing.
Time to go bawdeep on SNP. I’m sure they’ve won this and anything over 2.0 is one of the best bets you’ll ever have.
Guess the call has been passed through to the bunker now.
“Hoots mon, Gordo. Dinnae get in a stooshie, now, but tha’ wee man fae the Nats has whipped oor arse”
176 Will Davena Ranking get a winnable seat off the back of this.
Newsnicht I mean :o)
Labour 1.6
is the Boston ward in an interesting seat at the GE? I have only heard of Boston and Holland, wherever that is.
Douglas Alexander just talked about 63rd quarter of growth. Hasn’t anyone told him Labour has only been in power for 43 of them!!
SNP still available at 2.6 on betfair
Turnout = 42.25%
Ave it………..leading with the news as usual!!!!!!
SNP 2.3
SNP in to 5/4 on betfair!!
187 - yes, hopefully something opposition held so she can prove what a great campaigner she is.
187 will punter get a brain in 2009?????????!
Sturgeon is surprised by Brown as PM
She clarifies that she is surprised how inept he has been.
Sturgeon - all her Tory hatred is now turned on Labour.
Betfair edging towards Evens the pair!
I cautioned against reading much into the Betfair odds when it was favourable for Labour, the same applies now they’re moving the other way.
Another big tightening in the SNP price. Unsure whether I should trade or hang on now
Well, I was a wee bit nervous about taking the Nats at 3.55 this morning, but I’m feeling slightly chirpier now.
SNP in to 2.2 and Labour on 1.7
Too close to call! Long faces in labour camp! Shiver of expectation in SNP ranks.
See my earlier posts. SNP to win by a nose. Turnout 36%
Dont say I didnt tell ya all.:)
( this is what I posted on other threads from 16.00hrs today)
I am at westminster tomorrow (today) - I expect to see gordon moving out and getting the bus!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Punter she would need to move to England as all the possible ory gains have already selected as far as I can recall.
Eminence it was BP who told me himself he was a Labour party hack. As I said the other night, Peter Hain was once Young LibDem National President but he still became a Labour MP and Cabinet Minister.
Too close to call! Long faces in labour camp! Shiver of expectation in SNP ranks.
See my earlier posts. SNP to win by a nose. Turnout 36%
Dont say I didnt tell ya all.:)
( this is what I posted on other threads from 16.00hrs today)
189. Nope. It’s in Boston and Skegness, which is a safe Conservative seat. (It was UKIP’s best performance in 2005.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_and_Skegness_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
184. I’d ignore that. It’s me!
169: Boston: “BNP 119 UKIP 88 LAB 44″
LOL at Labour…
187 she should, she certainly should. But in the Tory party allocation of seats is up to associations.
Don’t know if it is true, but I read that she stepped in when the selected candidate declined to fight a by-election.
Such courage deserves a reward IMO
Too close to call! Long faces in labour camp! Shiver of expectation in SNP ranks.
See my earlier posts. SNP to win by a nose. Turnout 36%
Dont say I didnt tell ya all.:)
( this is what I posted on other threads from 16.00hrs today)
Well, we could sit here all night and speculate about the result, but it is all idle until we have some idea of the turnout. Anyone care to hazard a guess?
Well, we could sit here all night and speculate about the result, but it is all idle until we have some idea of the turnout. Anyone care to hazard a guess?
The SNP’s Westminster leader has hinted that Labour has won but only just…
Anyone there? Michael Crick looks heartbroken!
SNP now favs on Betfair.
I think they have this one in the bag.
SNP now shorter than Labour on Betfair, 1.72 vs 2.04.
Sounds like the SNP have won this, they’re talking about 1000+ votes ahead.
The best coverage is BBC Scotland.
Evening everyone…reading where we are, Labour will be crowing if they pull it off, they’ve turned the party holding a 13,000 majority into underdogs - some achievement!
Great call by Mike and co on the turnout…I wonder how many simultaneous posts we will get when the result is announced? I’ll do my bit.
test
test
And we’re back! SNP now strong favourites!
server problems…
Any word on time of result?
test
The SNP victor strides into the count…..this is a man who has won - and knows it!
It’s not close enough to need a recount apparently. Declaration due at 1am.
Labour are 50 to 1 against,
I never saw what the strong Labour bets were based on. SNP never needed a big swing - I was accused of clutching at straws for saying that. Bookies, polls, propaganda and politics…
Look like the SNP margin will be 1500..
Labour are 50 to 1 against,
I never saw what the strong Labour bets were based on. SNP never needed a big swing - I was accused of clutching at straws for saying that. Bookies, polls, propaganda and politics…
Look like the SNP margin will be 1500..
cool…managed to get £200 down at 2.6 a cpl of hours ago
cool…managed to get £200 down at 2.6 a cpl of hours ago
Oh well, must have been a “late swing”.
Ok, awaiting the result. Shares in Nokia expected to rocket against general market sentiment. Gabble, are you listening…?
Back just in time for the SNP celebration!
not been funny at all watching that prat alexander defending his corrupt sister
Politics Home forecast earlier today (Thursday) was a Labour win.
86 experts to 13 experts.
These “experts” are so lazy. They do very little real analysis, they do not bother to query duff polling techniques and just run with the commentariat.
Yet if they had only paid the slightest attention they would see that Labour had a weak canvass of the voters and an organisation described in the Sunday Times as a shambles by a reporter on the inside.
Politics Home forecast yesterday (Thursday) was a Labour win.
86 experts to 13 experts.
These “experts” are so lazy. They do very little real analysis, they do not bother to query duff polling techniques and just run with the commentariat.
Yet if they had only paid the slightest attention they would see that Labour had a weak canvass of the voters and an organisation described in the Sunday Times as a shambles by a reporter on the inside.
Did someone forget to feed the hamsters powering the pbc servers tonight?
It all seems to be heading in the same direction. The SNP will have serious egg on face if they haven’t done it. And did you see how the SNP candidate John Mason entered the count? A victory parade before the count was finished, this could be a seismic night.
Well, I was accused of clutching at straws earlier when I said that the SNP didn’t really need a big swing. There was a bit of pressure when the SNP went out to 7 but I still never saw any reason for it.. Well done to those who got good value on the SNP!
For me, the politics is bigger than the money!
Well, I was accused of clutching at straws earlier when I said that the SNP didn’t really need a big swing. There was a bit of pressure when the SNP went out to 7 but I still never saw any reason for it.. Well done to those who got good value on the SNP!
For me, the politics is bigger than the money!
Oh for god’s sake not a recount, get on with it…….
recount
A victory here for the SNP would equate to a virtual electoral wipe-out at the next GE.
A dominant SNP would lead to an independence referendum sooner rather than later and combined with a Conservative government in Westminster could well lead to a yes vote.
The day Scotland becomes independent is the day Labour are finished as an electoral force forever…if they aren’t already.
354 vote SNP majority on first count…
Just to say that the Vote UK website at http://www.vote-2007.co.uk is working without a hitch…
no, no! no!!! not a recount!
oh well, it must be really close, i only m hope all this waiting doesn’t let us down with a Labour victory.
Maybe Labour will mount a legal challenge?
According to the Guardian the SNP had a majority of 350 before the recount.
242 - Egg on face to top it all off? I doubt it.
Where has pb.com been when I’ve needed it for the last hour???
Just a bundle check going on, apparently just the 2 sets of Curran votes.
243 - I’m convinced I heard Nicola Sturgeon saying that it was a 350 vote majority (off camera, uncertain her mic was on?) when the first utterings of a recount were made.
where is gabble predicting a 5000 labour maority after the recount?
Have just been able to log on after hours. I felt orphaned. The BBC saying its a budle recount over a SNP majority of 354 ? anyone know different ?
If it’s SNP by 354, and there’s no reason to believe otherwise, then that’s not going to be overturned in a recount. So why is there 1.05 available on betfair?
Looking like the real winner tonight will be Jack W’s ARSE (once they have finished recounting the piles….)
A Labour requested recount in a 13,000 majority safe seat…….ho hum
Well it looks as though the PB forecast was absolutely spot on.
Sorry about the outage - just quite exceptional traffic.
This will be in the top 10 closest by-election results since the War.
It may beat the Scottish record, when Labour held West Dunbartonshire by 293 votes in 1950….
God bless Jack’s ARSE - he steered us well.
Site seems to be working OK now & I have released a load of comments stuck in moderation queue - many apologies for the outage
Unlikely I know, but if Labour win on the recount, that clip of Mason pumping the air in glory will be replayed for years.
Hello, all! Is there weblink somewhere for audio for Glasgow East byelection coverage?
Dougie Alexander jas been asked why we aren’t having electronic counting……lol.
Site back on stream. All looking good for my bets. Fantastic! Well done Mike!
Not in the bag yet, as we await the recount but I am happy to turn in, having laid SNP at 1.01 to lose £446, with a liability of £4.46. So potential losses more than covered and looks like a great payout.
Fantastic call by Mike, if it develops as appears very likely.
277: radio 5 live
anyone knlow how to make the old pop up player work for bbcnews 24?
If Labour are putting us through a recount, it would be a pleasant conclusion if the SNP majority goes up as a result.
272 - thanks for the acknowledgement Mike, sounds like exceptional traffic on an exceptional night. pb.c is the place to be on election night.
Now I think is the right time for me to smugly point out how the two Currans was an issue first raised by….me.
SNP by 354 pre-recount. Truly amazing.
280 Thanks, Eastender. BTW, did anyone hear how McAuslan voted? Or did he fall into the Clyde on the way to his polling place?
279. Pretty good call by NickP as well, who’s been saying too-close-to-call for a while.
Happy that I look to be picking up another win, but annoyed that I got on the SNP so early that I got poor odds (I didn’t want to top up further once they moved out with it looking so close).
I suppose the recount will help keep the story off tomorrow’s front pages. Not that that had any bearing on asking for a full recount rather than a bundle check.
BBC, reporting returning officer: “full recount, every bundle being checked”.
New projection for declaration: 10 minutes.
10 mins to go according to bbc
279 - Congratulations to you, yer Holiness. You truly are a punter and a gentleman.
285. Full recount, but just breaking through each bundle - laborious but not as time consuming as it could be.
I have not sen one of these bfore. It seems like a cros between a bundle count and a full one. Mason was unwise to enter like that. It was almost Dewey wins!
Margaret Curran really is not an attractive woman.
In depth analysis from me tonight
Closest Scottish result since the War
Dumbartonshire West
DATE:…25th April 1950
Mr T Steele…….Labour……..20,367
Cmdr. R A Allan…Conservative..20,074
Majority………………………293
Labour hold
Well it looks like the new Rule that whatever the Labour expectation management forecast is the outturn is worse. The earlier Labour take was to squeak through - looks like that was SNP. If there was indeed a reasonable turnout above 40% then its even worse.
Not a good result to take into the recess.
290 - A good point, well made. She is a vile screeching harridan, in my opinion. And now we are having a recount, because she just can’t give it up.
Surely Miss Great Britain should have run a candidate if they are going to be a truly national party?
So who is 3rd, any news there?
282 - Probably best not to get too smug:
“Can’t believe people seriously think the Tories are going to come third here.”
by charlie July 23rd, 2008 at 3:45 pm
294 - Or have they?
OT - IS McCain about to announce his VP pick?
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/07/is-mccain-planning-a-thursday.html
24% swing to the SNP.
On the betting, I got in late, laying the SNP at 50 to 1 odds on whilst counter backing Labour at 7 to 1, that has left me all green.
Shame I got greedy and layed some more SNP! Still we will see which way the sheep move later.
On the recount issue, we had a recount in one of our safest wards, not because the result was in doubt, but because the numbers did not add up.
That said, I think this looks very close!
293 succint
Sea Shanty, what’s the latest view on whether McCain will anounce a veep pick anytime soon?
#295
Tories are comfortably third. LibDems expected to lose their deposit.
You’d ned 4 bundles of 49 Curran votes topped by a mason one to be discovered to over turn the result. Not going to happen. This is about spin. “aftr a recount” is about making it sound close when of course its a 2 megaton detonation on the Labour party.
Just like to say well done to BBC tonight for some excellent coverage. I thoroughly enjoyed all of the panellists, the arguments between Sturgeon and Alexander brilliant, Swinson looking fit, and even the Tory coming across quite well.
A great night to be a fan of politics.
295 conservatives
290. 50+ mousy harridan surrounded by spotty 20 something thugs - Crewe and Nantwich II
295 - Last I heard Tories in 3rd, Lib Dems hovering around losing deposit range.
But over 40 for the main two so not a lot for the rest to fight over.
I’m a bit worried that this result will end Gordon’s premiership which is rapidly becoming the favourite period of my adult life. It would take something special for things to get more fun than this.
304 - I concur. SLab are trying to make it look like they haven’t just rolled over and died, when in reality they started conceding defeat from mid-evening.
If they’ve really managed to take this, what are the repercussions for the National picture? Surely Labour MPs will be shitting bricks about their own constituencies, all of which are now vulnerable in these circumstances!
294
I believe they’re currently talking to the Conservatives about a possible merger.
A bundle count is just to make sure that each block of 50 votes has beeen tagged (usually with a coloured wrapper) to the right candidate. As opposed to breaking each bundle apart and recounting each ballot paper again. So a bundle count is a lot faster than a full recout.
Any chance of the LibDems coming fifth?
Suggestion the LibDems may come fifth….
Just woken up to this horror. Will have a wee dram and go back to sleep until Alan Johnson is the Labour PM.
Behind who?! Solidarity?
Just got home, any results or news?
Well here it comes!
317. lol
Agents and candidates are being called to the side again.
So we’re looking at the Labour party’s 25th safest seat going down. Just for fun, if this happens at the GE, and only the 24 saf
est Labour MPs are returned, who would be party leader?
Here we go - take 2…
SNP have won after recount.
321. Kim Howles maybe
Are we all ready, folks? Mags Curran looks like she’s about to puke….hahahahahahahaha etc.
Is it just me or has, somehow, the recount just taken the shine off this victory? I feel like I’ve fallen victim to psychological warfare…
321. Miliband?
“a bad night for the Tories”
319-What???
A great day for English nationalists!
302. McCain isn’t going to announce his Veep anytime soon, probably not until after Obama does. His camp put the story out to take some attention off Obama’s foreign trip - they used Bob Novak as the medium and he is meant to be fuming about being used as a patsy.
328 ?????
326 Nope - still shining as a magnificent political event.
When will GB be making a comment?
323 - only after a recount, eh?
Bring it on. As someone in Scottish Politics once said.
Sky: “increased majority”
328 ……. but the labour party only need to swing back by 1% to be the largest party in 2010 zzzzzzzzzzzz
Labour call a recount and the SNP majority actually goes up!!!
LMAO!!
Just to fill the wait - the recount may have been called by a party seeking to hold its deposit - so not necesarily a reflection on the SNP - Labour relative postion
A terrible night for the Tories. This is the type of seat that they need to be winning if they are to have any chance at the next election.
**snigger**
337 - ah, now that would make me feel happy again
337. No-one will be able to download that from your personal hard drive, you need to upload it elsewhere.
336. Morus: did you just give your real name away?
344. I’ll take that as a “yes” as it’s been deleted
341 - She looks like a caricature of a witch.
To paraphrase RodCrosby on a previous thread:
Labour at 200 on Betfair. Oh dear.
321. Harriet, Yvette Cooper or Andy Burnham… or Dennis Skinner, Frank Field or Blunkett
I was up at this time for eastbourne. thatcher was gone within a month. This time ? My instinct is no, but who knows.
However this is huge. A two megaton City Killer.
343 - Yeah, didn’t mean to do that - will try and publish full list if I can, when I’m awake!
Morus what does the ‘F’ stand for?
If she’s lost Margaret Curran will regret answering the call - from possible Scots Labour Leader to loser of one of Labour’s safest seat.
Limesmoothy,
“Bring it on. As someone in Scottish Politics once said.
by limesmoothie July 25th, 2008 at 2:15 am”
Shouldn’t that be “someone who used to be in Scottish Politics…”?
It IS a terrible result for the Tories if it gets rid of Brown. He’s an election losing MACHINE!
And now - a summer of plots and schemes and intrigues and back-stabbing embroils the Labour Party.
Thank you, SNP.
I think Hilary benn has a 40% plus majority
I’d love to see Burnham leading the party in a few years.
332. To paraphrase the professor muppet who claimed that a 4% increase for the tories showed they could never win more seats in Scotland…. All very predictable labour hack plays.
Whatever the result, it’s always a ‘bad night for the tories’ from the BBC.
Re 341, David Roe “A terrible night for the Tories. This is the type of seat that they need to be winning if they are to have any chance at the next election.
**snigger**”
Don’t laugh, if we did, then our party leader would also have to be Monarch surely?
That said, why do folks in Glasgow east vote Labour? I mean, what has Labour done for them?
David Roe,
No, it’s a terrible result for the SNP if it gets rid of Brown…
284. David Herdson. Nick Palmer has once again been a fantastic and honest source of information and opinion to this site but, when he finally nailed his colours to the mast, he actually called this one wrong.
To paraphrase Nick he initially said, “No idea”, then “I’m fairly confident of a Labour win” and finally back to, “I think we will win but the SNP seem to think they will win too?”
Nick’s analysis, as usual, was extremely helpful and in tune with Labour Party opinion but sometimes the punters oversee received wisdom and that’s what this site is all about.
359. What did the Tories do for them in 79-97?
Of course, a 4% rise as it’s usually described is actually a rise of 60%+ (from 6 to 10)…
351 - In a desperate attempt to maintain what remains of my anonymity, I’m going to tell you it stands for Faustino…!
353 - she is still as MSP, no?
Can’t quite believe that the SNP won (at least before the recount), I was not expecting this. I knew it was going to be close, but I thought Labour would hold the seat. So Brown is in a hole much bigger than I thought!
349. Did Kinnock go after Govan 1988?
Wilson won power 112 days after Govan 1973.
It’s a by-election. Governments frequently lose them. Oppositions occasionally too..
To be honest a lot of this election has been guesswork, The majority on this site at the beginning of the campaign predicted an SNP win without a lot to go on. However as time has gone by it has been clear that it has been so much closer than any “expert” has predicted.
This site got it almost spot on last night with the closeness of the poll. Whatever the esult the BETTING ODDS of the past two weeks were way out. There was geat value in backing a Mason in the East End. Well done to all of those in Green.
364. Do you remember writing this morus:-
This book is widely thought of as the best introduction to the Spanish Civil War around. As well as charting the basic cycles of state ranging from Isabella to Franco, it also offers specific insights to the various factions competing within each area of Spain at any given time. For those who have not grappled with the political complexity of the early 20th century in Spain, this book provides an excellent (and not so superficial) historical insight into Anarchism, Anarcho-Syndicalism, Carlism, and the Falange. It also explains the allegiances of the POUM and PCE during the course of the war, and the equally complex make-up of Franco’s grand coalition.
The earlier dictatorship of Primo de Rivero is also covered, and (uniquely) the Agrarian problem (essentially the crux of all Spanish politics in this period) is properly covered.
If there are to be criticisms of this work, then perhaps the racial generalisations and assumptions made of Spaniards feel somewhat dated, and feel odd when compared to the political correctness of today. Also, the use of “anarchic” and “anarchy” to mean chaos (which is not the same thing!) is unfotunate, given that the Anarchist movement in Spain came closer than has ever been seen to giving these words their true meaning. But these are mere trifles. As well as being a seminal historical study, this is also a wonderfully readable account of one of the most interesting periods in Spanish history.
Finally…!
SNP by 365
here it comes
362 stopped their nation from de-industrialising and turning into a third world state?
Libs- ~3.5%
372. Their gratitude was obvious when you were WIPED OUT in 97
362 same as cameron will do. save the country from the destruction of a labour govt
356. Leeds Central is “only” Labour’s 40th safest seat…
Re 362, Chcarlie “359. What did the Tories do for them in 79-97?”
Give them opportunities such as the right to buy, and stopped them being threatened with a beating if they voted the wrong way at a union meeting.
371 - Probably. This returning officer is a terrible tease.
377. See 374
BBC: “a tremor, not an earthquake” 8 or 9 on the rickerscale I’m thinking.
From the Guardian’s blog:
“2.10am
As the recount rolls on, I can tell you the Conservatives are delighted to have come third with 1648 votes at the first count, with the Lib Dems pushed to fourth place on 908 votes. In other words, they have managed to lose their deposit. The word is that as a result of the recount, Labour’s Margaret Curran has 12 LESS votes.”
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/07/glasgow_east_byelection_live.html
367. neither wilson or kinnock was in the position then that Brown is now. However i don’t think he will go. I also mentioned Thatcher and eastbourne.
382: “Labour’s Margaret Curran has 12 LESS votes.”
Lol, typical Labour competence.
302 - Shadsy, have no inside info re: timing of McC VP pick.
However, talking heads I’ve heard this side of the Pond have been pooh-poohing report from Robert Novack that pick would happen this weekend.
Also note that the Dark Night apparently committed a hit-and-run with his car in DC this week. For what that’s worth.
BTW this has been a VERY good week for Obama, and NOT for McCain. Supposedly the McC Mark XIX campaign team was going to focus on the economy! Instead, they spent all week looking like a re-run of Desperate Housewives!
Just like the Clintonistas before them, McCain and his “Brain Trust” are learning the hard way that Obama ain’t no pushover. And Hillary had the sense not to lash herself to the rotting carcass of George W. Bush and the Cheney Administration.
ok quick guess in he last minute what majority I say 124
#376
Rod - out of pure interest - how does a 24% swing to the SNP (and a swing to the Tories) effect your swing-back theory for the next election? Or has the paradigm shifted…?
Limesmoothie,
Well, as we’ve seen you can be a Scottish Labour MP and have nothing to do with politics. That’s why we had a by-election. I see it more like a pension than a job. Snouts in the trough was an issue after all!
Othrewise, In England this is a story about the Tories. In Scotland this is going to become a story about the union…
This is taking a while. Ooh here goes
381. I thought the same thing.
Please can we all shout in unison: “12 FEWER votes”
287. Cheers SSI.
We will now probably start focussing across the Atlantic for more rich pickings.
Mike Smithson for a knighthood!
367 - True but Gordon is still swimming away from the shore. He’s going to drown soon.
SNP maj 365?
Results time, how many of us will post this simultaneously?
M Curran (Lab): 10,912
F Curran (SSP/winding up Margaret Curran): 555
J Mason (SNP): 11,277
D Rankin (Con): 1,639
I Robertson (LD): 915
That’s the badger!
F Curran 555
M Curran 10,912
Mason 11,277 (I think)
300 majority - phew:O)
Alba gu bradh!
JOHN MASON, SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY 11277 43.08%
MARGARET CURRAN, SCOTTISH LABOUR PARTY 10912 41.69%
DAVENA RANKIN, SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES 1639 6.26%
IAN ROBERTSON, SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 915 3.50%
FRANCES CURRAN, SCOTTISH SOCIALIST PARTY 555 2.12%
TRICIA McLEISH, SOLIDARITY 512 1.96%
DR EILEEN DUKE, SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY 232 0.89%
CHRIS CREIGHTON, INDEPENDENT 67 0.26%
HAMISH HOWITT, FREEDOM 4 CHOICE 65 0.25%
Insta-swing:
Lab to SNP 22.53%
Lab to C 9.18%
Lab to LD 5.32%
C to SNP 13.35%
LD to SNP 17.20%
LD to C 3.86%
Ha ha, the SNP did it! I didn’t believe it was going to happen, but there it is. Absolutely amazing. I don’t know what this means for Gordon Brown or the Labour party, but it’s got to be pretty bad news…
David Cameron to be PM by Christmas?
Superb.
Ohh look, lets talk over the SNP - I wonder if we’ll hear Maggie in full?
So, a majority of 365, up from 354 before the recount, but still less than the ‘other Curran’ vote.
11th closest by-election since the War
2nd closest Scottish BE
Lab-Con swing 9%
Who are the lardheads doing the Live 5 coverage. The one moron was raving on that Cameron should have done more in Glasgow East (and handed the seat back to Labour?) Then the other spoke over the returning officer after the SNP count was announced, so didn’t get the Conservative and LD numbers. What fecking idiots.
Soar Alba! It’s coming!
Ind 67 (0.26%)
SSP 555 (2.12%)
Lab 10912 (41.70%)
Grn 232 (0.89%)
F4C 65 (0.25%)
SNP 11277 (43.08%)
Sol 512 (1.96%)
Con 1639 (6.26%)
LD 915 (3.50%)
Political bomb shell, it’s going to look bad for Labour in the morning.
Ok, i’m a bit hammered after a night out, did the SNP win?
Yokel,
Scotland won;)
What odds on Gordon Brown announcing his intention to stand down by 10am tomorrow?
So Labour lost… Tories triumphant at coming in third place. Liberal Democrats (possibly) quietly pleased that their voters lent their votes to the SNP in order to defeat Labour.
Tories: not interested in defeating Labour - only in fighting their own small corner. Tories are pathetic, narrow minded and generally useless.
UNS for Scotland gives, I think:
SNP 43.88% (50 seats)
Lab 20.08% (1)
Con 15.17% (1)
LD 14.57% (7)
Per the country-variable swingometer posted earlier.
Bouquets to Jack’s rear end…but also and emphatically to Easterross!
Bouquets to Jack’s rear end…but also and emphatically to Easterross!
“Labour’s defeat at the poll, which saw a higher than expected turnout of 42%, will cast fresh doubt on the future of Prime Minister Gordon Brown.”
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Glasgow-By-Election-Votes-Recounted/Article/200807415055105?lpos=Politics_0&lid=ARTICLE_15055105_Glasgow%2BBy-Election%2BVotes%2BRecounted
Not wishing to gloat - but the sound you can hear is me resting on my laurels!
Glasgow East - SNP by 500, Lib Dems squeezed into a lost deposit. 2 recounts - one for 1st and one for Lib Dems.
by Robin Wiggs July 23rd, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Does anybody else think Mason looks suspiciously like Geoffrey Archer? Reinventing himself again?
412. 10,000-1 ?
New thread
“Labour MPs across Scotland will be quaking in their boots.” - John Mason, making his victory speech. Too right!
Let’s just say that the result is far more spectacular than the victory speech…
C.Gifford a bit like labour in the south? Where they lose desposits..
Harman taking over on Monday:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4393707.ece
369 - I remember nothing about anything charlie! Very good book though…
You’re not the only one who knows who I am, but there aren’t that many either - even on here, so if you wouldn’t mind keeping it close to your chest, I’d be very grateful.
Astonishing.Simply astonishing.
“time for scotland to stand up and be heard”?
I would rather they shut up once in a while…
Good night all.
Gordon Brown wounded, indeed fatally. but he will survive until the next general election.
Now that is what I call a result
biggest cheer from audience to the comment ‘ we have removed the dead hand of a labour govt’ its all over for the labour party !
#413
Sorry mate, but all true liberals are celebrating. Some financially!
405. Lab/Con swing utterly meaningless. This was and was always about Lab/SNP.
413 - “Liberal Democrats (possibly) quietly pleased that their voters lent their votes to the SNP in order to defeat Labour”
Yeah, cracking result for the Lib Dems. They must be delighted.
411. Ok SNP it is, i was trying to explain to the cabbie on way home about how i’d bet on it.
He didnt give a fiddlers.
Delighted to say i actually made some money thanks to an SNP win,despite the wobbles.
Labour-wise, no matter how you cut it, this is a bad bad result.
413. C. Gifford: pathetic, narrow minded and generally useless.
Matthew 7:3.
#419
Stop nicking comments from Guido’s place…!
432. disagree, that’s how FPTP works..
Pretty good result for the Tories, although failure to increase their vote share a disappointment, which prefigures negligible Scottish gains at the next GE…
Well, I’ve just collected my winnings and am off to bed. My many thanks to all those who post on here, who are a continual source of wisdom and good advice.
Hope you all did well!
They started singing bye, bye…….