Will Catholics abandon Labour?
July 5th, 2008
Will Glasgow East see the first sign of an exodus?
There has been much written already about the potential fortunes of the Labour Party in Glasgow East, and as remarkable as it seems, the 13,507 majority currently enjoyed by David Marshall was not even enough to prevent the SNP from being ‘bookies’ favourites’ when the markets first opened. The punters on the site, far more knowledgeable on the specifics of this constituency than I, have made me wonder how we can use the result of this by-election to discern trends that could become more widespread in a General Election.
What marks Glasgow East out from most other UK constituencies is its high proportion of Roman Catholics. Parkhead, the stadium of Catholic-affiliated Glasgow Celtic, is in the constituency and a high proportion of the 73% who identify as ‘Christian’ will be of a Petrine rather than Pauline persuasion.
One of the most vocal critics of the Blair and Brown governements has been the Cardinal-Archbishop of St. Andrews and Edinburgh, Keith O’Brian. The most senior churchman in Scotland, he has vociferously attacked the government’s policies on divorce, civil partnerships, and most recently Human Fertility & Embryology. I will be extremely interested to see if he or his colleagues in the Roman Catholic Church in Scotland make any statements about recent legislation in the run up to this by-election.
Labour has traditionally been the party of both the working class and of the Catholic community in Great Britain. It could be argued that the party’s policy platform (Marxism, Methodism, now neo-liberalism) has never made much attempt to appeal to the doctrinal views of Catholics, and that the affiliation of so many Catholics was merely an additional consequence of holding the working class vote in such numbers. This is plausible, but one might also posit that as long as the Church of Engliand enjoyed the sobriquet of “the Tory Party at Prayer”, that sectarian Catholics would always maintain an affinity for Labour. For whatever reason, Labour has been confident of winning a majority of Catholic voters in almost every General Election since Emancipation.
However, with the resignation letter of Conor McGinn (vice-chairman of Young Labour) claiming an ‘anti-catholic’ hostility in the party, and a recent article by Labour MEP Mary Honeyball that asked whether Catholics should be allowed to hold governmental office, there is much discussion amongst Catholics as to whether this natural loyalty to Labour is something that should be perpetuated. Be it Ed Balls’ perceived attack on faith schools, or the claimed unofficial whipping of Labour MPs on the abortion threshold vote, it is becoming apparent that the fragile relationship that has existed for so long might not survive to the next General Election.
Clearly this is of concern to some within the party. Jim Dobbin (Lab - Heywood & Middleton) wrote to the Prime Minister to express concern about such attitutes within the PLP, and Stephen Pound (Lab - Ealing North) decried Mary Honeyball’s remarks as having “a strong whiff of the 17th Century about them”.
I do not believe that recent policies would be enough to break the link between Catholic voters and the Labour party, in spite of the response they have provoked from the Cardinals. Rather it is the perception, a fairly new perception, that the party is institutionally hostile to Catholics - by refusing them a free vote on abortion, or by insisting that no exemptions could be found for Catholic adoption agencies - that could cost Labour dear.
In 2005, only 36% of the population voted Labour, but that rose to 53% amongst the five million British Catholics who decided to vote. A non-scientific poll for totalcatholic.com indicated that 72% would vote Conservative as a result of the HFE Bill, and though this sample would be more conservative than the mainstream, it does indicate the fury in certain parts of the Church. I would expect this reaction to be most marked in a part of the world renowned for the ferocity of its sectarianism.
I don’t know if the Catholic vote will abandon Labour at the next General Election, or whether the perceived hostility is any greater problem than the perceived alienation from the white working classes. However, I would expect that if there is to be an identifiable swing away from Labour amongst Catholics, we will see it soonest and most obviously in the Glasgow East by-election later this month.
Morus
LATEST PRICES FOR GLASGOW EAST CAN BE FOUND HERE
UPDATE: Iain Dale is running a story that the favourite to be Labour’s candidate, Cllr George Ryan, did not show up to the selection meeting, prompting the cancellation of an event tomorrow morning.
UPDATE: Margeret Curran, MSP for Glasgow Bailleston, is now being tipped as the likely favourite to contest the by-election for Labour. She had previously been tipped to replace Wendy Alexander as leader of the Labour MSPs. Details here
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Labour’s candidate selection has gone haywire. This is not good for Brown. Not good at all.
‘Labour disarray over by-election candidate’
“Local Labour party members decided unanimously to postpone their selection until Monday evening.
This leaves Labour, defending a 13,506 majority in the seat, having to abandon the planned launch of its campaign today and at the disadvantage of not having a candidate it can ask people to vote for while other parties hit the streets this morning.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2380961.0.Labour_disarray_over_byelection_candidate.php
Potential Labour candidates:
1. Cllr George Ryan
“However, Cllr Ryan was set to be quizzed about remarks he made to a Cabinet minister five years ago about the Union Flag and the national anthem. Cllr Ryan told David Blunkett they were not “universally welcomed” symbols in the West of Scotland.
Cllr Ryan told David Blunkett in 2003 that because the flag and anthem had sectarian and offensive overtures for some Scots, the council would exclude them from a pilot scheme for citizenship ceremonies in the city.
“Unfortunately there is a by-product in the West of Scotland that to some people the Union Flag is not the most universally welcomed symbol,” he told the then Home Secretary. “In some parts of this city and in Central Scotland, it is not perceived as the most inclusive symbol of culture.””
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4272845.ece
background-
BBC, Nov 2003: ‘Union flag plan opposed’
“Plans to use the union flag and the national anthem God Save the Queen in new citizenship ceremonies for immigrants have encountered opposition in Glasgow.”
Councillor George Ryan is among those backing the alternative plan.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/3237106.stm
2. Irene Graham, a former Glasgow councillor
3. Doug Maughan, an airline pilot from Stirling
4. Steven Purcell, leader of Glasgow City Council (highly reluctant apparently)
5. Lesley Quinn, former General Secretary of the Scottish Labour Party - 1999(?) - 2007 (refused personal approach from Gordon Brown to stand, according to Guido)
Why are Labour finding it hard to get a serious candidate in this supposedly safe seat?
Tommy Sheridan not standing. Not a surprise. The Solidarity candidate will be Tricia McLeish, formerly a Labour Party member (Militant), suspended for her involvement in the Anti-Poll Tax Federation.
So, thus far we have only 5 candidates in place:
- Frances Curran, Scottish Socialist Party
- John Mason, Scottish National Party
- Tricia McLeish, Solidarity
- Davena Rankin, Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party
- Ian Robertson, Scottish Liberal Democrats
There is also a bit of confusion about the Greens. The Scottish Green Party initially said that they would not be standing, as they did not have a suitable local member. But apparently they may change their minds.
Paul Loyd will really use anything to distraction from discussion this disastrous on the most unpopular Labour government in history. Anything to distract from discussion the corruption of the Brown government. Anything to distract from the mismanagement of the economy under Brown. Anything to distract from discussing rising petrol cost. Anything to distract from the problems Labour has caused the NHS.
Basically anything to distract from discussing the issues that effect real people. Whatever Ray Lewis did years go doesn’t effect me. But what Gordon Brown is doing and what he continues to do effects all of us.
Morus - “… the SNP from being ‘bookies’ favourites’.”
Well, almost! But not actually accurate at the time you posted this piece.
The first prices posted by the bookies had Labour as favourites, but almost immediately the SNP tightened to take the lead. However, after heavy Labour bets in Ladbrokes’ Glasgow shops, Shadsy shortened the odds. Now the two parties are pretty much even stevens, with Lab a nose ahead on Betfair.
But how long will Labour remain the favourite on Betfair without a candidate? Nominations close 16:00, Wednesday 9 July.
Both Paddy Power and William Hill have withdrawn their Glasgow East prices, yet again. Only prices currently up are:
Ladbrokes:
Lab 5/6
SNP 5/6
Con 100/1
LD 100/1
Betfair:
Lab 1.93
SNP 2.06
Con 10.5
Any Other 26
LD 100
Gordon calls a quick by election, when he hasn’t even got a candidate?
Celtic don’t play at ParKhead any more!
Morus, I didn’t think UK voters did the “culture wars” like the US and to a lesser extent, here in Australia? Isn’t this the reason that Cameron has been able to regain all those AB voters from the Lib Dems?
Australian Catholics have trended away from Labor during the Howard years - Howard’s first win in 1996 was the first federal election where the Coalition won a two-party preferred majority among Catholic voters. Catholic Liberal MPs are commonplace now, whereas even twenty years ago they were unusual. Perhaps that’s because of greater New World social mobility.
5. Well, quite! You just couldn’t make it up!
Sorry Morus, I know that you want to have a juicy chat about Catholicism and voting behaviour, but there are just far too many by-election news gems today. Eg:
“Mr Sheridan admitted the by-election was a “two horse race”. “I’m not going to be dishonest to the electorate,” he said. “We don’t think we have a realistic chance of winning at this stage. We have got no problem with the SNP winning this election. Solidarity will be pleased to see the demise of Gordon Brown. However, there is a fight for third place.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2380958.0.Labour_candidate_mystery_as_other_parties_launch_battle_plans.php
I don’t know how wise it is for Labour to be doing this:
“The Scotsman has learned Labour activists across the UK are being roped in to canvass potential voters in Glasgow East by cold-calling them from phone banks across England, and in Glasgow and Edinburgh, to check whether the party is addressing “issues of concern” to them.
On the ground, The Scotsman found clear signs of support for the SNP… “
If the arch-Unionist Northbritishman is grudgingly admitting this, take note!!
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Brown-going–for-broke.4259174.jp
Shadsy, I wonder if all those big bets in Glasgow were from real punters, or were certain people trying to move the price?
‘Bookies the only favourites as candidates take their marks’
“But don’t place your money until you hear the apocryphal tale of the election agent encountered in the street during one campaign with a large wad of banknotes protruding from his sports jacket.
His plan was simple. Having collected £1000, a sizeable sum, from committed supporters, he was hotfooting it to the local betting shop to skew the odds so wildly that there could be no comeback for the opposition. It was one week out from the vote and the agent reckoned timing was everything. He was right - once the money was over the counter all bets were off and the agent’s man was the bookie’s surefire winner.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2380956.0.Bookies_the_only_favourites_as_candidates_take_their_marks.php
I’m Catholic and have never voted Labour.
‘Labour announces Glasgow East candidate: Lord Lucan’
by Adam Smith Was A Socialist blog:
“Not only do their lifelong voters seem very disillusioned (I’ve been round the doors again and that was the overwhelming impression), they have had to cancel a major national and UK-wide media launch in a way that could well make them look like fools you wouldn’t trust with anything more complicated than a children’s puzzle book. (Is there a puzzle book version of The Hungry Caterpillar I wonder?)”
http://adamsmithwasasocialist.blogspot.com/2008/07/labour-announces-glasgow-east-candidate.html
(Scottish political in-joke: ‘The Hungry Caterpillar’ is a reference to an infamous Wendy Alexander quote.)
I had no idea a Labour MEP had written such an article, thanks Morus. It says a lot to me that she still holds the whip. Imagine a Conservative MEP writing an article that said “Hindus are unfit for public office”. Cameron would take the whip away within minutes of its publication.
But I cannot believe the favoured councillor didn’t turn up to the meeting! And that they postponed it for a candidate now on record as having contempt for the constituency. They can hardly select the guy now.
9. wow!
8. Couldn’t say, Stuart. I think there should be more by-elections in Glasgow though - the betting activity has been frenetic and a clear divide is in evidence. Political shrewdies and observers around the UK have been wanting to back the SNP. Punters on the streets of Glasgow think that Labour will hold on.
Charlie you want to defend the Labour MEP’s open bigotry?
This is why we’ve got such a good candidate in Glasgow East:
Here’s the article on George Ryan not bothering to show up at selection.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4272845.ece
But look at the large excerpt below - all about the Tories. It points out Davena’s guts, there she is campaigning in the worst areas of the seat, it gives publicity to Annabel Goldie and unlike Brown in one of his safest seats it shows Cameron will come to campaign in one of his most difficult seats. Loads of great coverage, shows Tory commitment to Glasgow East and more importantly to Scotland as a whole..
“Yesterday, the Scottish Conservative Party began its fight for the seat claiming that Labour voters were switching to the Tories.
Despite suffering several racist taunts on her walkabout of the area, Davena Rankin, the first candidate to start campaigning, said that the response she had from voters was positive. “I am delighted with the response I’ve had so far,” she said.
“Today we met non-voters and lifelong labour voters who have pledged to vote Conservative. No one will deny that it is a mountain to climb but I am offering every voter a clear choice; continuing with the failure of Labour, risking everything with the Nationalists or change with the Conservatives,” she said.
At one point the Tory entourage was even cheered, as it made its way down Tollcross Road in the heart of one of the most deprived constituencies in the country, but the chants of “Rangers” made it clear the support was for the colour of the balloons, not the party.
David Cameron, the Tories’ UK leader, is expected to visit the constituency next week in an attempt to boost his party’s chances on July 24. At the last general election, it polled just under 7 per cent of the vote, while David Marshall, the Labour MP whose resignation last week triggered the poll, took 60 per of the vote.
Speaking at the start of the party’s campaign yesterday, Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Tory leader, claimed that the party’s drug strategy and stance on law and order was winning voters “Scottish politics is now a three-horse race and whilst we are still currently the third horse, I sense a change in direction and a shift of power. You only have to see how frightened Labour are of losing one of their safest seats to smell that fear,” she said.
Despite the Tories’ upbeat campaign message, the main fight in Glasgow East will between Labour and the SNP.”
13. I didn’t make any comment on it. I was responding to post 9, hence why I put ‘9′ at the beginning of my post.
I understand that. Since you were mocking post 9, I then asked of you to defend an article by a Labour MEP still in receipt of your party’s whip and who has not even been disciplined saying that members of a major faith group were unfit to hold public office.
But perhaps you aren’t a Labour supporter in which case, apologies.
Labour, in nominally its 20th safest seat, can’t land a candidate, even when the Prime Minister himself, a fellow Scot, picks up the phone to ask you to board the Westminster gravy train. “Aye - yer can have a new plasma telly an’ a fitted kitchen too….”
You couldn’t get a clearer indication that at the heart of Glasgow Labour, they know they are going to lose to the SNP.
The likes of Hazel Blears should be careful of crowing about Boris losing a deputy and causing the wheels to fall off; it will come back to haunt her when Gordon resigns. Not just the wheels, but the engine will have been stripped out of Labour, never to move forward again…
It often gives me some pause for thought when someone talks about groups such as Catholics and working-class people being core labour voters. On balance, Labour’s policies seem to actually want to hurt or discriminate against these groups, rather than actually help them.
For years Labour have never represented the working-class ethos on law and order, Europe, taxes and the idea that hard work pays; and Catholics have been discriminated against by Labour for as long as I can remember (not too many years).
How have they ever kept hold of so many workers and Catholic voters? Just unthinking, ignorant tribalism I guess.
Going on policies alone, Labour seem to represent only public sector workers and the under-class.
The Catholic vote in many areas is no different to other groups. In 1987 many I knew supported our local sitting Conservative MP, in 1997 they were generally behind “New Labour”. Their views on the social issues of the day seem very very akin to the average, including abortion. These ties may remain in Glasgow East but I guess they are lessening as each year passes.
The Catholic loyalty was a working class loyalty. As a kid I was brought up in Islington which had three parliamentary seats, including a considerable Irish and Catholic minority, but each seat had majorities in the early fifties of 20,000+, based on a class not religious base. Islington eh, how times have changed.
At the Grammar school I attended our class held a mock election, 42 in the class, 41 Labour and 1 Conservative. How times have changed, both Islington seats could go to the Lib Dems next time.
Funny old world.
6. alex: Celtic don’t play at ParKhead any more!
Only in the sense that West Ham don’t play at Upton Park and Arsenal didn’t play at Highbury.
One correction to the article: Labour was not whipped on abortion, and it was always clear that we would not be. There’s a whip on the HFE Bill as a whole, as there was on similar Bills by past Governments, but the Bill is in fact not about abortion at all, though it offers the opportunity for people to attach amendments on the subject (because it’s on related issues so the long title allows it).
Cardinal O’Brian is I think the cardinal I was talking about the other day who wrote to all MPs about the HFE report stage. The style was markedly more restrained than his earlier pronouncements - he said essentially that abortion was of great concern, it was a very important subject and he really hoped we’d think hard about it, and at least wouldn’t vote to liberalise it. It was so unconfrontational that I wrote to thank him. Whether that was a tactical move to avoid alienating Labour MPs and he’ll return to trenchant mode after the HFE Bill finishes I don’t know, but I’d guess we’ll just get a single statement on it.
On another subject: if Boris’s mayorship proves chaotic, as I think even Tories here would agree is possible, how far do we think it will affect attitudes to the Tories generally? Would the Tories rapidly distance themselves (’it’s only Boris, nothing to do with us’) if necessary, or feel they have to support him as their leading elected executive? I suspect they’ll take the same semi-detached line as we did with Ken when he said some embarrassing - “a good Mayor for London but, um, his own man”. In fact, Ken would probably have done better if he hadn’t lost his anti-establishment glow by too much party support.
Catholics in America still don’t vote in accordance with the socially conservative views of their clergy, or to be more precise they vote the same way as people of other faiths and the same degree of religiosity do. If this pattern holds in the UK, I don’t see a big swing occurring. Bear in mind also that the idea of a Catholic block vote itself stems from a comparison to America, which has a much higher degree of integration between political and religious forces, and a much higher degree of political organization.
Well Nick, you are a Labour Parliamentarian.
Will you please comment on the article by the Labour MEP saying Catholics are not fit to hold office? Can you tell me why Catholics like myself should not take offence? Can you tell me why Ruth Kelly should have to read such an article? What would be your view on a LibDem MEP writing that Muslims weren’t fit for public office?
The HFE bill contained many conscience provisions, eg on abortion and on the need for a father. It is a wretched disgrace that it was whipped - whether you are Catholic or not, we do not whip conscience bills in this country. Could you be whipped to restore hunting?
22. Nick P: Ken would probably have done better if he hadn’t lost his anti-establishment glow by too much party support.
Undoubtedly. He’d have done a lot better had he not re-joined the Labour party; that action essentially invalidated his raison d’etre in the eyes of many who voted for him in 2000 as an independent.
Marcia or Stuart,
any inside info on who the Labour frontrunner in Glasgow East is now?
I am a bit embarrassed at my own ignorance about all of these issues. How can a football team be “catholic affiliated”? What does that mean?! it sounds like Northern Ireland not Scotland! Weird. And I had never heard of political parties being traditionally more supported by catholics before.
Give me C of E anyday. Not even a terribly strict requirement to believe in God…
27. Jon C: Not even a terribly strict requirement to believe in God…
“I think He’s what’s called an optional extra” — Sir Humphrey.
As for the ‘wheels are coming off’ remarks from Ms Blears regarding the resignation of Ray Lewis I will wait for the outcome of the inquiry.
However I was impressed with BJ’s retort that the problems facing London will not be solved by ‘antiseptic Yes men’ and that if cleared, Ray Lewis will be re-instated.
As for background checks, which Government appointed Ray Lewis as a Prison Governer?
Great moves from the Clunking Fist, highlight British jobs for British workers, (fall short of the BNP in Henley). Pick a fight with the Tory toffs, but apply hereditary principle in candidate selction. Next By-election refuse to challenge popularity of 42 days detention, after allowing minister to infer heart warming phone calls from Tory to pressure group guru.
Meanwhile in Scotland, the great helmsman and his unchallenged glove puppet fall out over a referendum vote. Bring it on she cries, as more critical evidence emerges about her expenses, so she resigns. With exquisite timing on doctor’s advice an MP resigns. Run a short campaign (in the main holiday time in Glasgow) to out fox the opposiition to his benevolent rule, but then select a bigot with bigger ‘issues’ than Ray Lewis as a candidate. Selected candidate is dropped when remarks about the Union Flag being ‘unacceptable’ are found, is this guy a member of SF, no he is a Labour man. Three weeks to go and no candidate has been announced. This is the man lauded by Alistair Campbell as Labour’s great strategist. Was AC being ironic, or accurate. Hope that the press find nothing on Marshall’s expense…
Morus, a very carefully constructed heading. I agree with the sentiments. The only thing is I believe you missed the main man so to speak. Certainly Cardinal O’Brien is head of Scotland’s Roman Catholic church but he is not Scotland’s senior churchman. That is the Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland.
For Roman Catholics in Glasgow, their guidance comes from the Archbishop of Glasgow who is now Mario Conti, formerly Bishop of Aberdeen. Mario Conti, like Keith O’Brien and his predecessor Cardinal-Archbishop Thomas Winning is a highly articulate, personable man. However as a non Roman Catholic, my impression is that Archbishop Conti is more towards the late Cardinal Winning than to CArdinal O’Brien in terms of his willingness to become involved in the politics of the nation. He has made a number of overtly political pronouncements, which is his right and I expect that the good citizens of Glasgow East within his flock will be left in no doubt as to his views on the parties in the by-election.
Until relatively recently the Roman Catholic Church automatically encouraged its Glasgow flock to vote Labour. However as someone said earlier in the week the Roman Catholic church and the SNP have become far more friendly in recent years and some SNP MSPs like Michael Matheson in Falkirk West are both very open about their political and religious opinions and how they overlap, as in the regular debates on whether SCotland should finally ditch its separate schools in Central SCotland for Roman Catholic kids.
My gut feeling is that in Glasgow East the RC church is going to either stand back or hint towards its flock that they should vote SNP because of some of the recent legislation, even if the SNP supported it.
I will be interested to read the postings over the next few days by PBers who go to canvass there and have never been in the constituency. I suspect they will find it eye-opening. I wasn’t kidding when I said that all over the constituency the observer will see hundreds of men, women and children wandering around wearing replica Celtic tops.
The one man who could save Labour in this seat is Dr John Reid. Not only is he one of Scotland’s most senior Roman Catholic politicians but as Chairman of Glasgow Celtic, he has demi-god status to a large section of the electorate. Will we see him campaigning, I doubt it. I haven’t seen a single press comment attributed to him in the past week.
Several of us said last week that the Tories will fight this by-election hard. We dont expect to win but we will put in a disproportionate effort for every vote we gain. Last night on the Scottish news there was Davina Rankin and Annabel Goldie with a crowd of supporters out in the streets in so called “no go areas” for the Tories. We will come out of this election making it clear there is no part of the country that Cameronians will not campaign. I haven’t met Davina but I guess she must be mixed race because she was the subject of a racist comment in the constituency yesterday. She has one magic weapon for a Scottish Tory candidate. She speaks with a strong West of Scotland accent. No-one can accuse her of being an import from the Home counties which was the traditional make-up of a Tory candidate in a no-hope east of Glasgow seat.
Finally assuming Labour hasn’t got its candidate in place by this weekend or even a front runner, they really have got problems and if the Scottish media senses a shock result as in Dunfermline where it was the LibDems who were the star performers, the SNP will get a media bandwagon behind an excellent and very local candidate Cllr Mason.
There a whole posting by me without a “puerile” attack on the LibDems which according to my critics is all I am capable of
For whatever reason, Labour has been confident of winning a majority of Catholic voters in almost every General Election since Emancipation.
Hmm. Catholic emancipation is generally held to have been achieved in 1829 (though it was more of a process than a specific event, and some aspects - the bar on Catholics becoming monarch - still remain today). I don’t think Labour did all that well in the seventy years that followed, not least because the party didn’t exist. While I don’t have the figures to hand, I’d guess that the first election where they, rather than the Whigs / Liberals, won a majority of Catholic support was 1922, or 1918 if GB-only figures are counted.
Some long winded posts this morning.
Even Mikes usually succinct and punchy lead ins appear to have been afflicted by the Scottish disease.
Things are complicated in Glasgow aren’t they! Here was me thinking that they didn’t vote Conservative because blue is the colour of a rival football team!
23 Labour’s problem is that if Catholics vote in much the same way as the rest of the population, then Labour lose votes (given 53% voted Labour in 2005).
27 Many football teams originally had a religious affiliation. Some grew out of Sunday Schools, or Church social groups. Celtic are historically the side that Glasgow’s Catholics support.
Morus, many thanks for a stimulating article.
32 Catholics usually favoured the Liberals, prior to 1918, although there was always some tension between them and the Nonconformists in Liberalism.
“Things are complicated in Glasgow aren’t they! ”
That’s putting it mildly - even from 40 miles away (Edinburgh) the politics there are borderline incomprehensible.
Tyson - Morus deserves the credit for the leader! Mike is now in semi-retirement -he is having the weekends off!
I thought Morus’ leader was fascinating though if Labour don’t find a candidate will Ladbrokes do aPP and pay out on an SNP winner early?
It really does sound as if David Marshall had to go very suddenly if they didn’t have a successor in mind, - careless if he was going to stand down at the next GE. I assume his health had deteriorated very rapidly.
37 In terms of complexity, though, they’re not a patch on East London, or Brent.
Having read Mary Honeyball’s article, I was surprised she didn’t mention “Popish Plots” at some point. It’s amusing that the last remnant of British anti-Catholicism is now to be found among the atheist Left.
So Ms Blears thinkings the wheels are coming off and thinks things are in a “complete disarray”. .She has a member of the Brown cabinet would understand the wheels coming off. Northern Rock, Last years election punt debacle, 10 p tax rate, leaving national secrets in public transport for anyone to pick up, 42 days, Scottish Labour leader forced to resign, losing Crewe and Natwich, coming in fifth behind the Greens and BNP and losing its deposit in Henley, about to lose a long time Labour Scottish seat in East Glasgow, the most unpopular Labour government in HISTORY, MP rebellion almost every week, Labour Party funding problems and on and on.
Ms. Blears must be confused this morning because its not Boris Johnson New Mayorship that is in complete disarray and the wheels coming off its her government.
And you got to love Ken Livingston popping up out of obscurity to make some ridiculous statement. The voters made their judgment on him and his 8 years and he got thrown out on his bum. I suggest he pop back into obscurity were they placed him back in May.
Now can we get back to reality. When are the petrol prices going to go down and what is the government going to do about all this knife crime this summer?
27 Jon C, most people who do not come from the West of Scotland cannot comprehend the polarisation of society in the West of Scotland. It has always been a surrogate for Northern Ireland and remember the vast majority of Ulster’s protestants are the descendants of West of Scotland presbyterians transplanted from Scotland to the northern 9 counties of Ireland by James VI and I and his successors. That is what the English Order of Baronetcy was created for. To pay for the transplantation of thousands of Scots to Ireland in the early 17th century. The Scottish Order of Baronetcy, the Baronets of Nova Scotia, was created to pay for the population of Canada and the north-east of the US.
All during the Troubles 1969-1994, Glasgow was used by terrorists on both sides, IRA and UDA/UVF to “hide out” when things got too hot in Ulster for them. Strathclyde Police had a special CID unit which spent its time keeping an eye on them. One of my school friends was a member of the unit and he could take you to streets in the west and east end of Glasgow where they would hide out. They were not troubled on the basis if they were in Glasgow and their presence was known, they couldnt be back in Ireland killing people.
Some serious commentators have always said that is why the IRA never carried out any attack in Scotland and it was very rare for a Scottish soldier to be killed in Ulster, the main attacks being on regiments like the Anglians and Staffordshires etc.
My late grandfather was sports mad and as a boy in the Highlands because his elder brother supported Rangers, he chose to support Celtic. When he went to Glasgow in the late 1920s he was quickly noticed because if a young man today, he would be heading for the English premiership. He was signed by Celtic and played for them in 1933-4. However as he had acquired my grandmother and uncle by then he could not afford to be a professional footballer and gave it up to concentrate on his work. Because he played for Celtic, it was assumed he was Roman Catholic and he was called “Kelly Sutherland” by others. That was enough to prevent him being considered for jobs in some newspapers because he was assumed to be Roman Catholic. It was only when he found this out, he made a point of stating that he had been brought up Plymouth Brethern (by an uncle who had served in Ireland in the 1910s/20s in the Black and Tans so now doubt my great uncle “found God” as a consequence of some of the things he did and saw at that time) that he started to get decent jobs.
Until the 1970s Roman Catholics in Glasgow were treated like shit and I remember as a child seeing signs on some shops saying “No Blacks or Catholics”. You just cannot imagie how deep the religious divide runs, even to this day, in some parts of Glasgow.
Sorry if this has depressed or shocked any of you, but sadly its true!
I suspect Tony and Cherie might find it a little difficult to vote for Gordon’s government.
Well the C of E has “metaphorical” signs in its churches - no women or gays (bishops).
Despite my somewhat picky observation earlier, thanks for an excellent article Morus.
It raises some really good questions. I think the main one is the increasingly open question of how Labour sees catholics, and vice versa.
The Labour Party has always been, or has always tried to be seen as, the party of the excluded (not necessarily the minority). In the first instance, of the working class, but also sympathetic to other groups which were treated like, or behaved like, minorities - even when, as was generally the case with women, they voted disproportionately Tory.
This approach, however, reaches a contradiction when it comes to dealing with Catholics. For much of the last 450 years, Catholics were actively disciminated against (not without reason at times), and that legacy was sufficiently strong in the 20th century to make Labour a natural home for many of that religious background. On the other hand, the Catholic church is an immensely strong and powerful global organisation, which holds views that often go against the interests and policies of Labour, and unlike some other churches, is not shy about promoting them. There is therefore a sharp distinction between protecting and advancing the rights of Catholics, which is generally within the tradition of Labour, and protecting the rights and interests of Catholicism, which is not.
That is an equally difficult dilemma for the Catholic church. It is always dangerous for religions to play party politics, and even more so when the policy lines of the parties are so divergent from those of the religion. It is much easier to adopt an issue-by-issue approach. If it does want to play an electoral game, it’s interest would lie in withdrawing support from Labour, which would amount to backing the SNP, in the hope of influencing the choice of candidate for Labour in 2010, when they should be assured of winning the seat - but if there is to be a selection then, that implies the SNP must win the by-election.
All that assumes that the church is interested in playing the game at all - they wouldn’t be in most constituencies, but then Glasgow East is not most constituencies.
4 - True at time of writing! If people think it is misleading, though, I’m happy to change it.
6 - Um…I think they do.
7 Culture wars? We don’t do identity politics like the US - there is little bloc voting, which is why I published this. Perceived hostility could move a group *en masse* even if their grouping has been an electoral by-product of other factors (class, immigrant status) previously. I always thought it was a danger with Labour that their policies on equality would create an identity politics culture - this would be one example.
22 - Nick, a clarification. I didn’t mean the whipping on the third reading of the HFE bill (though that would fit) but rather the presence of the Leader of the House acting in a semi-official capacity o whip Labour members on the abortion amendments. I recognise this is unclear, but was reported in several papers and on many of the blogs.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1021733/How-Harriet-Hardwoman-whipped-wavering-abortion-votes.html
23 - Catholics always voted Democrat until 2004 (ironically only the 3rd time a Catholitic had led the ticket - Kerry following JFK and Al Smith). You’re point is well made, but as I try and emphasise, it is not policy or doctrine that will drive them away, but perceived hostility in the Party, which the Democrats could never be accused of in the same way.
27 - Scotland can be as sectarian as Northern Ireland, and then some! Most of the kids I went to school with (apart from ubiquitous support of then 3rd division Cardiff City) supported Liverpool, but had scarves that were Liverpool on one side and Celtic on the other. I don’t think they even knew why the link existed. The same is true of Manchester, Edinburgh … one club predominantly Catholic, the other Protestant. Gladly, it’s dying out, but in Glasgow it remains strong.
Look at the photo I posted - that is the Goalie from Poland, who got in a lot of trouble (racial incitement) for wearing that T-shirt at the Old Firm derby, because they knew it was a red rag to Rangers fans.
31 - Scotland’s most senior Churchman?!?! (mutters something about only being one True church, blah blah, transubstantiation…) - no offence was meant - I just meant most senior Catholic, but don’t use the word ‘primate’ because it is not strictly correct.
32 - Am I to be robbed of hyperbole!! Almost said since the Reformation. We don’t consider elections before 1918 and the Fourth Reform Act as valid anyway do we?!
21 - Eh? Where do West Ham play then?
46 Properly, the Boleyn Ground
46 I remember my one and only visit to Upton Park in 1979, when the place was thronged with people selling NF newspapers. Someone had spray-painted above one of the turnstiles “Hitler was Right. Gas the Jews.”
45 - Yep apologies. For some reason everyone always used to call it Parkhead, whereas now i always hear it referred to as Celtic Park. For some reason i thought it was a new stadium.
Arsenal definitely don’t play at Highbury any more though!
45 - though in Liverpool it’s Everton who are the Cathoic team.
48 Presumably a reference to London’s own religious football rivalries - with Spurs being widely seen as a “Jewish club”.
50 - I heard someone say this the other day, and was astonished. Is is true?
41
“You just cannot imagie how deep the religious divide runs, even to this day, in some parts of Glasgow”
Having been brought up in the East Coast of Scotland, I went to Glasgow when around 18 years old and was horrified to see an Orange March - this was in the late 1960s.
It was rather like being back in the 17th century with all the racist and religious chanting etc…and I speak as a Scots Presbyterian ! It was just plain dreadful. And no I did not have a sheltered upbringing:-)
Mind you I find going back to Scotland even today - and I left over 30 years ago - like going back politically to the 1950s. Trade unions and The State rule OK in many of the cities… It’s like Thatcherism and New Labour never happened. Or rather it used to. Where the SNP have taken over local authorities many of the old Labour inefficiencies appear to be discarded: a shock to Labour and rightly so.
It is difficult for a non Scot living in England to comprehend how parochially incompetent Labour are in Scotland.
As an aside to those interested how clubs have both religious and political affiliations, I remember being told by a friend that there was a chant at Celtic for their favourite player, Japanese midfielder Shunsuke Nakamura (to the tune of ‘Winter Wonderland’):
“There’s only one Nakamura, there’s only one Nakamura, he eats Chow Mein, he votes Sinn Fein, Nakamura is a wonderman!”
Whether that is better than the West Ham fans taunt of Man Utd when they first had to play after Cantona had retired (”OU, EST, CANTONA, I said OU EST CANTONA”) is a matter of opinion.
26 it might be Lord Lucan
- if I hear anything I will post something.
51 That may be so. But, given the nature of West Ham’s fans at the time, it may just have been someone frankly expressing what he thought should be done to Jews.
I gather that when Tottenham played rival London teams in the ’80s, the fans of the opposing team would sing “Spurs Are on their way to Auschwitz, Hitler’s going to gas them Again” and start hissing to simulate the sound of gas.
45. 32 - Am I to be robbed of hyperbole!! Almost said since the Reformation. We don’t consider elections before 1918 and the Fourth Reform Act as valid anyway do we?!
I do! An election’s an election, even on a restricted franchise - and if you’re going to be consistent like that, you really should only consider elections from 1928/9 as valid!
As an aside, and only very tangentially related to the issue, I was reading about the general election of 1807 this morning in Hague’s biography of Wilberforce. It’s worth remembering that even before 1832 (never mind 1918 or 1928), real elections did take place, and on a scale way beyond that of today. In that election, for the first time in 65 years, the county of Yorkshire had a contested election. All three candidates received over 10,000 votes - probably more than any will get in Glasgow East - despite there only being one polling station, and two of the three candidates (Wilberforce being the exception), spent at least £100,000 on the election: significantly more than candidates would spend today in nominal terms, never mind inflation-adjusted ones.
57 - What on earth did they spend £100k on in 1832? Did they buy York Minster or something?
54- the two are very good!
50 - Yes, pretty sure it is. There’s very little sectarianism left in Liverpool football, of course - but I think Everton started out as an exclusively Catholic outfit. Liverpool were very much the latecomers and hoovered up supportfrom pretty much any source.
Having said that, Liverpool and Celtic do seem much more culturally similar than Everton and Celtic.
Man United, too have limks with Celtic, but Man United are definitely the Catholic team. Again, though, there’s almost no remnant of sectarianism in Mancunian football and support is much, much more based on geography now than religion (though it might happen to be the case that there is a higher incidence of Catholics in Old Trafford and Stretford).
57 - yep, i think some people sometimes have the impression that because there were rotten boroughs pre-1832, EVERY borough was a rotten borough.
Sorry, comment was to 52. Didn’t mean to make it look like I was agreeing with myself. That would be daft.
40..what a frightful little t..rd she is.
Interestingly Everton were apparently originally formed out of a Methodist parish.
50. Liverpool/Everton religious differences are really very mild and have been for a long time. Very much alive in Glasgow however.
cookie @ 60……a lot of the prevelence for the incidence of Catholics is due to the Polish influx into Old Trafford following the 1939-45 war. The 1964 intake at Stretford Grammar School had 15 from a Polish background out of a total of 100……with a smattering of “others”….my class started with Bernasconi and ended with Ziolio (but only one Chinese, one Asian, and one African in the year group).
58. 1807 actually (and therefore in the middle of a bloody big war).
Getting 10000+ people from all parts of Yorkshire to York itself (the site of the ballot), wasn’t cheap in itself, especially when considering the sort of people who had the vote expected to be conveyed in some sort of comfort, their accomodation and food and drink paid for. It was also usual to pay voters for their vote (not a bribe or buying as such - voters would make their own minds up but would still expect to be paid).
In addition, election literature was produced on a large scale - certainly comparable to an election today. The more extravagant campaigns, as those of Milton and Lascelles were, would put on shows of force / entertainment in the form of parades and the like.
Contested elections were not by any means unusual in the 18th / pre-reform 19th century, but were usually restricted to smaller constituencies, as the immense cost of fighting an election in a seat the size of Yorkshire meant that candidates would usually withdraw prior to nominations if their canvassing showed they were unlikely to win. 1807 was an exception as that year the canvassing was tight, divisions were deep, and the pockets of the candidates’ backers even deeper.
Surprised there has never been a Shaolin Buddhist football team. Those 15 feet high kung fu jumps would be rather lethal in the box!
Thanks for the article Morus - interesting how the focus is always on Catholicism now when discussing voting patterns of faith groups. There are plenty of other faith groups with similar social views! However the C of E are sadly only in the headlines for bickering about women bishops and gay priests.
And playing yesterday’s record I know, but I felt the criticism of Easterross was ott yesterday - I reckon Alexander may hang on in Inverness but his article was balanced enough to reflect this, and although more detail on the marginals may have helped, I look forward to the next articles in the series.
In this context, what would be lethal in Glasgow East would be the headline “Brown DID do secret deal with DUP”.
70. Is that quite so resonant now, in the light of “Sinn Fein did public deal with DUP”?
50/1. Yes. Although Everton FC was founded by Protestants in a largely protestant area.
There was a high correlation between Catholicism and support for Everton. My entire family and everyone we knew were Evertonians (I don’t follow football at all). To say you supported Liverpool would be met with the same response as saying you were converting to Protestantism.
Quite why this is, is beyond me (not following football). Hints that were dropped were that the board of Liverpool FC were “freemasons”, and there seemed to be far more Irish/Catholic players at Everton, giving rise to suspicions of discrimination.
Some opinions and background can be found here.
http://tinyurl.com/6c3qh2
34 - “Things are complicated in Glasgow aren’t they! Here was me thinking that they didn’t vote Conservative because blue is the colour of a rival football team!”
Guess we’ll see how effective “Vote Blue, Go Green” is then
56 - I believe Liverpool fans used to sing to the tune of Agadoo “Gas a Jew, Jew, Jew, put him in the oven on gas mark two” to Spurs fans relatively recently as well. So it hasn’t fully died out.
65 - last time I went up Anfield, about 10 years ago, there was a side street which had graffiti with “IRA” crossed out and a few “UVF” tags. Might be different now, although somehow I doubt it.
WRT this topic, if Labour can keep its Catholic vote onside, it’ll be down to John Reid getting involved and nobody else.
That said, with Labour’s recent tactics in by-elections, they’ll probably open their campaign in the Rangers bar near Parkhead
In the days following the shooting of John Paul II, the question being asked in Liverpool was “What is the difference between Everton and the Pope?” to which the response was “The Pope is getting better”.
31/41 Easterross - excellent article last night although i think con will win Moray and Argyll.
Loved all the LDs getting excited - they will only be left with seats in Highlands in Scotland next time!
Also loved the various references to me in the thread even though I wasn’t here - I must ask Mike to rename the site ‘Ave it politics.com’ or something like that!
70 I’m sure that the SNP will be able to run the headline “Brown DID do secret deal with DUP, admits Labour MP” and reference the Diane Abbot comment on This Week. Not sure she specifically tied it to the DUP, but hey, in a by-election, all is fair!
70 - I hadn’t even considered that. That’s an extremely good point.
69 - Think that’s for a combination of reasons. The CoE is so diverse and fragmented internally, that they have the full political spectrum even amongst the Bishops. Catholics at least have a fairly monolithic orthodoxy to contrast with public policy, even if not many believe in it.
The impact of most faiths who have fewer adherents in the UK (Islam, Hinduism, Sikhism) tends to be lost in discussions of race, though the voting of Muslims is equally interesting (will they stay with Labour, or shift to the Hard Left/Civil Liberties parties?).
The other demographic I am always interested by is the Jewish vote - particularly in London. Peter Golds and Sean Fear wrote fascinating comments around the Mayoral election and how the Jewish vote would split.
I suppose the reason Catholics are in the news at the moment is that it is a sleeping giant of a bloc, that hasn’t previously voted on Catholic grounds, but could move as one if provoked. No other faith or denomination is really in that position.
77. will they stay with Labour, or shift to the Hard Left/Civil Liberties parties?
And how would they react to Labour having a Jewish leader?
41: Thanks. Quite an eye-opener.
We had catholic next-door neighbours when I grew up in Warwickshire, not sure I even registered the fact for many years. It made as much difference as the colour of the car they drove, and as I grew up I simply could not understand the whole Northern Ireland thing. As you can probably tell i didn’t actually make much effort to understand it, but people who blow each other up didn’t seem worth my time somehow.
My wife is nominally Roman Catholic, and I am not lying when I said I have only just remembered that mid-post. Different world up there it seems!
50: Really???
That must be ancient history now though?
Mr Palmer, Labour was ‘officially’ unwhipped on abortion, but do you deny that Harriet Harman and others went round asking if people had voted ‘against nadine’ ?
Do you also deny that at one stage a human cordon was formed by female labour MPs leading to the government lobbies and that male labour MPs were told their female colleagues ‘would not forget this’ if they voted for Nadine’s ammendement ?
Extremely interesting. In the US there were signs for a while that Catholics were starting to migrate to the GOP, based on the two big hot-button issues: abortion and gay marriage. In fact Catholics were the key to Karl Rove’s idea of a “permanent Republican majority”, as he felt they could be targeted with the same success Southern Baptists were from Nixon onwards, by keeping sensitive wedge issues in the news and playing on prejudice - Islamophobia is the latest example.
Of course, the Iraq war somewhat screwed this plan, and Democrats were very careful not to be too insensitive in their support for these things. The biggest (and growing) group of Catholics are of course Hispanics, among whom Bush was very popular, first in Texas, and then nationwide. Unfortunately the wedge issues used to get other parts of the electorate, Southern whites, came back to haunt the GOP, as when they tried a compromise on immigration reform, the whole base of the party rose up in anger and Republican congressman worried about deselection. Hispanics now look to be going the way of African Americans in their voting patterns.
As for Lewis, something doesn’t add up.
He was a school head - an intense CRB check up would have happened, he was a prison governor - same there. I have every nook and cranny explored to see that I have no shady background as a teacher, all of my past is an open book to my employers.
Now either the government has lost complete control of their checking system or there’s nothing there.
My guess? This is a story designed to have a happy ending (i.e. Lewis returns) and the path taken (hasty resignation) done to make those who have jumped on the issue look like ill advised partisans who cannot be believed in the future.
Interesting statisic: Almost a third (12/40) of Scottish Labour MPs are professed Catholics.
Nick Palmer @ 22.
Chaotic? Short memnory, Nick. Allow me to refresh you sleaze glass.
Ken’s lying aide quits
Andrew Gilligan
23.01.08
Ken Livingstone’s fightback against sleaze allegations has been damaged after one of his key advisers resigned after admitting she had lied.
Rosemary Emodi, deputy to Mr Livingstone’s race adviser Lee Jasper, quit her £100,000-a-year post after taking a free trip to a £200-a-night beach resort.
She went there with Errol Walters, director of two organisations linked to Mr Jasper which have received substantial amounts of City Hall cash.
79. I like Irish standup Dara O’Briain’s take on this is very good:
“I have trouble understanding religion sometimes. I’m not a very religious man. I don’t even believe in God.
Still a Catholic, obviously…”
83 - I thought he resigned because he lied to Boris.
Adrian Rothschild @ 3 & 40. I was quite surprised to look on here now and see my name up in lights.
But just to fill you in. I have no desire to maintain a Labour Government in this country. I do however think that a Tory Government could well be even worse - they were after all far worse last time they were in, but I guess you were still in nappies at that point.
Now, as I keep being told by Mr Smithson. This is a betting site, and not ConHome Lite. So in the spirit of the site I was merely raising the perfectly legitimate ‘betting’ question of whether if Boris Johnson carries on in this incompetent way, he will impact the Conservative vote in a vital region for the Tories at the next general election. Now, I know that Tories hate to discuss their failures on this site - because they do not view it as a ‘betting’ site, but as a place to practise spin and drown out other opinions. But just so that you know - there are other points of view other than pro Labour or pro Tory.
83 - Surely CRB checks are just that, a check if you have a criminal record?
No criminal record no problem.
This sounds more like a “it would be better for everyone concerned if you went quietly” type of case.
87 - Boris said he would take him back when exonerated. My point being that the resignation is designed to be an over-reaction and a clear counterpoint to Jasper and his hanging on to the bitter end. One thing that Boris can control is timing and, whatever happens to Lewis, he is better placed to benefit i.e. I was decisive or Our detractors have been proved wrong, he’s back in the job.
90 - not so sure.
<i?Statement from Mayor of London, Boris Johnson:
“It is with extreme reluctance and sadness that I have accepted the resignation of Ray Lewis. He has always been, and remains, an inspiring figure to me. Ray is not a conventional politician but that is a strength as well as a weakness. Ray can communicate and connect with communities and individuals that are beyond the reach of most mainstream politicians.
‘Therefore when presented with a string of unsubstantiated allegations my instinct was to fight and fight hard for Ray. I still hope that he can clear his name. I cannot deny however that my confidence in Ray was shaken by the discovery today that he is not a fully fledged Justice of the Peace and I cannot deny that to be misled on this issue has made it harder for me to give Ray the backing necessary to continue in his role as Deputy Mayor”.
88 - Paul Lloyd - I responded to your question on the last thread - comment 357, or just click here
The selection process for magistrates crawls along at a snail’s pace to a point where successful applicants receive a letter advising that they are being ‘recommended’ to the Lord Chancellor for appointment. Such ‘recommendations’ are seldom turned down and Ray Lewis will have been aware of this.
However, it is usually at the point of recommendation that an Enhanced CRB check is carried out. If press reports are correct, an Enhanced check would have not have revealed any ‘convictions’ per se, but may have exposed some other ‘relevant information’, which meant Mr Lewis was unlikely to be appointed.
It is however possible that Mr Lewis had not yet been made aware of this, in which case it was not unreasonable of him to believe he had been accepted into the magistracy.
91 - Well, only time will tell. I think it’s more than possible we’ll see his return though, if not as nominal deputy then in charge of areas that he was supposed to be covering in that post.
What Londoners don’t need is to go back the Livingstonian way of handwringing over these issues however, Boris has to work quick to get someone similar in place to keep the momentum.
93 - Which is what I’m saying; as a head (and presumably prison governor) he would have already had the highest level enhanced CRB check possible. If there was nothing there to stop him getting those jobs then there wouldn’t be anything to stop him becoming a JP in time.
Is the system so broke that he wasn’t properly checked or is there no substance to the allegations? I can’t see any other possibility other than those two.
94 - he’s taking personal charge, apparently
96 - Hmm, black guy with street cred followed by Boris, not sure that he could be anything more than a short term stopgap.
95. Do we know when the CRB was first setup?
In todays Telegraph…”in the year to February 2008, 680 people were issued with incorrect information on their background checks by the CRB.”
http://tinyurl.com/638vc6
98 - Quite a while ago, the story at the end of this could well be about a CRB fiasco and, with delicioud irony, come down on the government’s head. If all the allegations are true then how the hell was he allowed to run the academy? Who in power either didn’t bother to check his past or ignored certain misdemeanours.
Come on journos, get digging (and if you’re the Guardian don’t forget to credit your sources
)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/2251698/Labour%27s-George-Ryan-pulls-out-of-Glasgow-East-by-election.html
George Ryan, a Glasgow councillor, was expected to win the overwhelming backing of Labour members to contest the Glasgow East seat later this month.
However he failed to turn up at the party’s selection meeting last night for “family reasons” - throwing the process of choosing a candidate into confusion.
100. Errr, yeah EDW…. we had noticed that one!
Nice for the Telegraph to have a Scottish ‘Exclusive’ though…
26 & 55. That’s a new name in the ring, mentioned in Telegraph link:
- “John McTernan, a former Downing Street aide”.
I still think that Lord Lucan is favourite though…..
Anyone familiar with Liverpool politics in the 1960s/70s will have some idea of what’s going on in Glasgow. Until local government reform in 1972 Liverpool had six Protestant Party councillors in two wards (Netherfield, Saint Domingo) in an electoral agreement with the Conservatives. After the reforms the Conservatives fought these wards and were hammered. I don’t know quite what happened to the Protestant Party, but they hung around for a while.
When the Liberals started moving out of their South Liverpool suburban heartland it was into wards on the fringe of the inner-city, often with a strong Welsh tradition, which had usually supported the Conservatives, and eventually replaced the Conservatives entirely. I was helping campaign in two traditional working-class Conservative wards (Anfield and Breckfield) and there was certainly a lot of ‘dog-whistle’ signals from *some* Liberal candidates to Protestants that it was OK to vote for them.
Although there was by then little overt religious friction between Liverpool and Everton, you would often hear it said that Everton players crossed themselves when running onto the pitch.
79 - as far as knowing if your neighbours are Catholic or not, I think a lot of Liverpool people would tell you that you can tell just by looking at them! A survey by (I think) Queens University Belfast in the 1980s showed that Northern Irish people were about 80% accurate in guessing the faith of someone just by looking at a photograph of them. Might be a skill that canvassers in Glasgow East could learn!
79
Talking of our contagious godless English society: there were a couple of jewish children in my class at school and I well remember one of them, distraught at missing a day off, saying to the other, “Why didn’t you tell me yesterday was Yom Kippur ?”
William Hill have their Glas E prices back up. Same as Ladbrokes for Lab and SNP (ie. 5/6). If you want to back Con or LD you are better with Shadsy.
http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=PO2192239
101
Yes Stuart, the story was out last night but I did not know he had quoted ‘family reasons’. He probably worked out he couldn’t win as Labour cannot even beat the BNP these days.
All together now…….
Things can only get better, can only get better
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDMJHYKrHNA
103
According to wiki
“Everton were founded as St. Domingo F.C. in 1878 so that people from the parish of St. Domingo’s Methodist Church could play a sport in non-summer months”
Hills - Next Labour Leader In Scotland
Kerr 2/5
Curran 4/1
Gray 6/1
Jamieson 14/1
Gordon 20/1
http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=PO2192238
85. It’s certainly the case that Labour, and Livingstone in particular, are not on strong ground when criticising Boris. However, just because Livingstone’s City Hall had become tainted by special favours, questionable funding, dodgy characters and a lack of responsibility, it doesn’t give Boris or his appointments the right to act any less responsibly.
It hasn’t done Boris any favours losing two appointments so quickly, although the goodwill that goes with an election win - especially when there is a change of party involved - will help him politically, as will the fact that if things look a bit of a shambles, then that is not a phrase which is entirely new to Boris, and was something of a known factor when the public bought into him.
It may well be that it’s all a storm in a teacup, and that the prompt resignation has been in part prompted by the protracted Jasper circus before the election. Either way, it doesn’t help Boris or the Tories, but nor is it likely to be that damaging either.
I see Blair Babe Helen Clark says she is going to law over her video nasty on youtube.
http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/ExMP-in-legal-action-threat.4245829.jp
Nice woman.
106. Tee hee.
According to the Herald article I linked to at post 1:
“…unable to attend a selection meeting in the constituency due to “unforeseen circumstances”, according to a party spokesperson. It is understood that Mr Ryan’s partner is reluctant for him to seek the nomination but the first that campaign organisers knew of the situation was at last evening’s meeting.”
20. “How times have changed, both Islington seats could go to the Lib Dems next time.
Funny old world.
by dave (s) July 5th, 2008 at 8:11 am”
Both? Islington North are you sure about that?
Conner McGinn never claimed an anti-Catholic feeling in the Labour Party per se rather as an officer of Young Labour, partly as a result of the Chair of Young Labour publishing an article attacking Labour MPs for not voting for the Embriology Bill. I think this was lot more about youth/student politics than it was about things happenning in the rest of the Labour Party
‘McGuinness in Iraq peace mission’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7489785.stm
On the general thrust of the article, I don’t think Catholics will move as a block.
The Church has never in modern times advocated support for a particular party or candidate, and it’s not going to start now.
Of course, priests in the pulpit will say things about abortion, etc. and issue some mild statement like “Catholics should weigh these issues carefully when deciding how to vote”, but they will never explicitly tell the flock who to vote for.
Besides, at election time, Catholics, like everyone else tend to vote on the usual pocketbook issues. The small number of ultras, who put abortion, etc. above everything else have long ceased voting Labour in general, although they would probably continue to vote if presented with a Catholic Labour MP.
Organisation like SPUC produce leaflets which explicitly highlight candidates’ positions on abortion, etc. and these are usually left in church porches for the faithful to peruse, if they are interested.
107 - That’s certainly true. I don’t know quite when the sectarian division crept in. The team split creating Everton and Liverpool as separate teams, and possibly the sectarianism crept in then, but I don’t know enough about the history of either side to really comment. Certainly by the 1960s, although the sectarianism had pretty much faded away, Everton still had a vague reputation as a ‘Catholic’ team, although I don’t think many people really bothered about it.
As both teams have grounds about half a mile from each other I don’t think it had anything to do with the ethnic/religious composition of the population of the area, which was historically Welsh as much as anything.
115, I don’t know if they will or not, but I thoroughly despise the notion of block voting. Identity politics and voting not based on your principles and your own reasoning but because of a certain demographic category you fit into is vile.
31 - Excellent article yeaterday Easterross and I look forward to reading the next one. I’ll be inerested to hear your views on the South of Scotland where I live. I’m a little less optimistic than you on Tory prospects in Scotland although I’m not quite sure what prompted the dummy spitting from some of the nastier Lib Dems on this site. Quite easy for them to sneer but I assume none of them had gone to the trouble of writing an article for the site?
Not sure if this has been mentioned but a Scotsman article had a number of comments from ’senior Labour sources’ who were entirely confident of holding Glasgow East.
88 - “a place to practise spin” - Sadly we can’t all be spin free zones like you Paul.
Ray Lewis may have a past but - a Black Conservative can draw more ‘Coconut’ attacks from the Left and Blacks than from BNP types.
It is the same tribal petty racism that holds Scotland back. A Scottish Conservative is deemed un-Scottish or even English.
ps. A ‘Coconut’ is a term of abuse by black people towards black people. It means black on the outside, white on the inside. It is directed at blacks for example, with ‘posh’ accents or who study classical music, vote conservative or feel themselves English or British (rather than Black British in the BBC, Labour, LEA, NottingHill Carnival way).
I think Easterross is on to something with his identification of John Reid as labour’s Secret Weapon in Glasgow East. If the Good Doctor can be persuaded to do some campaigning (not just a quick press conference) then the Labour Party might be able to rally the wider community, because of his Celtic connection and “man of the people” approach. Mind you, has anyone got the video of him losing it with Jeremy Paxman? You remember, “You posh English people all hate me because I have a Weegie accent” or whatever it was he said.
My wife was born in England, but grew up in Glasgow, and was very involved with Church of Scotland activities. But she frequently had to point out to people that although her Christian name is Mary, she was not automatically a Catholic.
Technical question; how long have Labour got to find a candidate? Ballot papers need printing etc., including postal ballot papers. Now that Purcell has formally declined, they must be getting quite excited.
110 - didn’t Helen Clark defect to the Tories just days after the last election?
100 - as there were two other candidates there surely one of these should have been selected, or was this meant to be just going through the motions to annoint Cllr Ryan? Not fair on the two that did turn up. If I was them I would be fuming.
119. I can identify with this, especially when I went canvassing on a council estate and got an incredulous look from another black guy, given the fact that I was out for the conservatives.
121 Surely they have someone in the constituency who wants to live in London and get a free plasma telly from John Lewis?
By the way, if that is Max from Edinburgh at 118, may I say that you have been sorely missed, Sir.
122 not according to Wiki
“It was widely reported at this point that she had declared she was planning to defect to the Conservative Party[2], an announcement which was not locally popular - the leader of the Labour group on the City Council called it “a slap in the face”[3]. However, by the beginning of June it was reported she had not joined the party, and did not intend to.[4]
Labour has no natural appeal to catholics.
Look at Labour’s flagship policies and implicit policies:
- Abortion on demand
- Experimentation on Emryos (unborn babies to Catholics)
- Homosexual Marriage
- Promotion of Homsexuality
- Hostility to Catholic Adoption agencies
- Hostility to Christians and ‘Special Status’ of Islam
- Anti-Family, Anti-Father and Removal of the term Father. Father’s are very important no Catholics, not least in terms of Priests ['Father'] and the Creator ['Our Father'].
Watch how Labour defends Islam but ignores (and promotes) Christian oppression.
No. Labour is Anti-Christian and Anti-Catholic.
122
Rumours.
124 I am glad you have the self-confidence to be yourself - rather than what others expect you to be.
The video is tops.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-d4-NqdI27Q
Worth another watch, should have it on BBC iPlayer.
Stuart D I thought the name McTernan was familiar. Is this the same one? If so lots of ammunition around.
This on Wiki suggests that as a candidate he has a poor electoral record in Scotland:
John McTernan (born England) Director of Political Operations at 10 Downing Street. He provides political management and support for the development of the Government’s political strategy. The Labour Party pays his salary.
He has been seconded to the Scottish Labour Party to run its campaign for the Scottish Parliament general election on 3 May, 2007.
Scotland on Sunday had this:
THE chief aide to Scottish Secretary Des Browne described Scotland as “narrow, Presbyterian and racist” in a private e-mail.
John McTernan, Browne’s special adviser at the Scotland Office, and a former aide to Tony Blair, made the comment in a private message to Labour MSP Karen Gillon five years ago.
In the message, obtained under Freedom of Information legislation, McTernan is recorded remarking on a holiday Gillon was about to take in Sweden.
“If you’ve not been to Sweden before I think you’ll really like it,” he wrote. “It’s the country Scotland would be if it was not narrow, Presbyterian, racist, etc, etc. Social democracy in action.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Des-Browne-aide-Scotland-is.3691744.jp
Guido had this to say:
Consider John McTernan’s record as an adviser:
Special Advisor to Harriet Harman at DSS - Harman was sacked
Helped run Frank Dobson’s Mayoral Campaign - Dobson lost
Special Advisor to Scottish First Minister Henry McLeish - McLeish had to resign over an expenses “muddle”.
Helped run Labour’s Scottish Parliament Campaign in 2007 - Labour were
beaten in Scotland for the first time in 50 years
131 Cut and paste from wiki. How useful.
Maybe not turning up for the Selection Committee is a high risk strategy: in some voluntary organisations, the best way to get yourself elected to a position you don’t want is to not turn up to the meeting.
121. They’ll find somebody - eventually.
Might even get to test the old boast,, ‘cos I hear that there’s a donkey on Helensburgh sea-front that’s getting serious consideration….
125 - It is indeed Augustus. I’ve not been posting as regularly. I joined a new firm and can’t access the site during the day which has cut down on my posting. Productivity is well up though!!
I will try to make a bit more of a effort to post outside of office hours!
Percy squared If you want to assess a candidates effect on an election you need to do some research and this is just a starter which suggests the man may be vulnerable in some respects and it might be worth, if he is selected, looking more closely.
Can you help us in that respect? Or will you just be sarcastic?
I am not a Catholic, but it has always been my understanding the Catholics were far better attendees at church rather than say those of a C of E persuasion. Does not the power of the pulpit hold some sway with Catholic voters? Does’nt the priest try to suggest how people should vote. I always though that was the case, though I might be in error.
137. No. See 115.
The priest or bishop will never recommend a particular party or candidate, but will impress upon the flock the importance of abortion, etc. from the Church’s perspective.
And of course we still have a secret ballot…
45.”Look at the photo I posted - that is the Goalie from Poland, who got in a lot of trouble (racial incitement) for wearing that T-shirt at the Old Firm derby, because they knew it was a red rag to Rangers fans.”
Remember the imaginary flute playing stunt by a certain footballer at an old firm game? I remember when I was about 11 visiting family in Hamilton and announcing that I was a Rangers supporter - damn near had to get the smelling salts out for some of the older relatives.
Years ago my granny’s priest used to stand outside the church to guard the windows on the day of old firm matches. On one occasion Celtic had won and a rangers fan was going past the church on his way home, he shouted a few choice insults at the priest and then said your okay because you are protected with that collar.
The priest removed the collar and hopped over the wall, the fan legged it away at great speed.
131 “John McTernan (born England)…”
Woah! Can I stop you right there. He might have the name - but so does Cameron. Does anyone really think an English guy is going to get elected in Glasgow East? Against your main challenger, the SNP? I wouldn’t have thought it very likely! But perhaps the good folk of Glasgow are less parochial than I give them credit for.
Oh, and the other thing - McTernan’s a loser!
103.”79 - as far as knowing if your neighbours are Catholic or not, I think a lot of Liverpool people would tell you that you can tell just by looking at them!”
Isn’t the surname often a give away too, I know my maiden name is a clear clue to my Irish Catholic roots?
137 - “I am not a Catholic, but it has always been my understanding the Catholics were far better attendees at church rather than say those of a C of E persuasion.”
Among those Christened, Catholics are better attenders. Among those confirmed, I would say that the Anglicans are better attenders, probably.
It all depends on what you term being a member of a Church.
141 - not sure about that. Don’t Ken Maginnis and Martin Maguinness basically share the same surname?
I am concerned about this article. The reputation of this website depends on articles being 100% accurate. It’s fine for people to have different opinions, but statements of fact have to be accurate.
I know the point has been made above but I think it’s worth repeating. Labour are favourites for the Glasgow East by-election. When I checked at 2am this morning Labour were favourites then too. Did the odds move between 2am and 5am? I wasn’t able to check at 5am when the article was posted or during the morning. But the odds now are almost identical to last night.
I’m also concerned about the statement about Labour whipping on the abortion thresholds. I’m not partisan in this - I am a Conservative supporter. But I think the article is stretching it. On the 22 week vote, Labour MPs who voted split 80:20 against whilst Conservative MPs who voted were 80:20 for. I’m sorry but I don’t think the presence of the Leader of the House can fairly be described as whipping. Would Cameron’s presence and stated support for a lower limit be described as whipping?
142. I suspect a very large number of Christened “Anglicans” are still members of the church.
145. Are NOT still members, I mean.
141. Absolutely, except in my case, where my paternal grandfather was a London English protestant, and two of my Irish great-grandfathers Anglicised their Irish surnames.
Growing up, I never had anything other than Catholic friends, and as far as I knew neither did they. Parents and grandparents generation the same, only more so. They lived in a ghetto (Scotland Road, Liverpool).
146 - That’s my point. An Anglican Christening is still pretty normal even for the irreligious.
But Catholic confirmations (typically pre-teen) tend to happen younger that Anglican ones. This gives more time to lapse.
138- Rod Crosby
“The priest or bishop will never recommend a particular party or candidate, but will impress upon the flock the importance of abortion, etc. from the Church’s perspective.”
In 30 years of catholic Sunday mass, I have never encountered one example of this kind of subtle para-political behaviour.
Then again, I mostly lived (and went to Church) in France, a country where this kind of behaviour would instantly provoke an immense backlash. (obviously some French lefties still think that priests are somehow forcing people to vote for conservative parties…)
143. Yes, which looks to Scotland for its origin, derived from Mac Aonghusa “grandson of Angus”.. variants MacNeice, MaCreesh
150. sorry. “son of Angus”
138. “The priest or bishop will never recommend a particular party or candidate, but will impress upon the flock the importance of abortion, etc. from the Church’s perspective.”
Even if they did, what realistic effect could it have as the number of people attending church is miniscule.
Average Sunday Catholic attendance - 861,000, ie under 2% of the electorate.
Average Sunday Anglican attendance - 852,000, ie under 2% of the electorate.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1573452/Britain-has-become-a-‘Catholic-country’.html
149. Are you saying that your priests never come out against abortion from the pulpit?
I suppose it’s a matter of emphasis, and the predilections of individual priests. But the main point is that they were ultra cautious to never mention particular parties or candidates, merely that these were important issues that Catholics should give particular attention to when deciding how to vote.
Which is fair enough, imho.
143.I think that in places like Glasgow and Liverpool, the Irish surname can usually be seen as a clue to Irish Catholic roots.
144.There was a lot of indications after the vote about a very strong *unofficial* whipping strategy had been deployed on the part of some in the Labour party.
149.Chris(paris), Mario Conti was my Bishop for many years both as a child and as an adult with children of my own. In all those years I never heard him give a speech with political tones until this Labour government were elected…
26 & 55
A new name enters frame for Glasgow East: Margaret Curran MSP for Baillieston!! See BBC Scotland online.
153- Actually, even if you find it unbelievable, I never heard a sunday sermon mentioning abortion. Of course catholic priests in the media discuss it but I have never heard anything within the Church.
144 - Mike L - I have amended the article to take account of your concern about the odds. The SNP were the favourites at time of writing, which was late yesterday, though with the recognition that that price could change. I have now modified the piece to say “the 13,507 majority currently enjoyed by David Marshall was not even enough to prevent the SNP from being ‘bookies’ favourites’ when the markets first opened” which is completely in-line with the initial movements of the market.
On the whipping issue, I had read a piece in a national newspaper (as linked) and on several blogs prior to that, that claimed that an unofficial whipping operation was in place led by Harriet HArman and three other female Labour MPs. We could have a detailed argument about what exactly constitutes whipping, but I would say that any implied pressure from Party Leadership when voting underminies the spirit of a free vote (”vote against us, and the sisterhood will never let you forget it”?). I think the point still stands - there is a perception amongst Catholic voters that Labour is no longer prepared to make allowances for their faith. Even the perception of a whipped vote on abortion makes that case.
147. Re Catholic names. In my environment we were attuned not only to the obviously Irish names, but also English Catholic names.
In my neck of the woods there are dozens of Murphys, O’Connors, O’Callaghans, Lennons, Gallaghers, Morans, McCanns etc
but also the oldest-extant Catholic village in England - nearby Little Crosby - produces Blundell, Gilbertson, Rigby, Fairclough, Rimmer, Orme, Westhead, Wareing, etc..
156- But I must say that in Ireland (where I spent one year some time ago) I did hear some bold statements in Church on this kind of subject (it was at the time of the divorce referendum). It profoundly surprised me.
So it may be a French thing
149 I think it dates to the July and Napoleon III regimes in the 19th Century. Priests often did quite literally march their congregations from Church to Ballot Box. The attempts by these regimes to benefit may explain how France acquired the tradition of voting on Sunday.
157 Morus it’s interesting how Irish immigration to South Wales never resulted in the sort of sectarianism it did in Scotland in the 19th Century i.e Swansea and Cardiff have only one football team for each City whereas every Scottish City seems to have at least two. Why the difference you think.
156. So what issues do they mention at your sermons?
btw, I don’t want to give the impression of some “fire and brimstone” monologue on abortion. It’s far more nuanced and reflective than that. It’s usually placed in the wider context of “family life”, the “dignity of the person”, the uniqueness of the individual, etc…
160- The Napoleon III regime elcetions were anyway a sham (there was an “official candidate” for each cosntituency for whom all civil servants campaigned).
The religious question in French politics is very complex, e can discuss it some othe day. Basically, republicans defeated monarchy-supporting catholic priests in 1905 with the separation of Church and State. Since then, France is very secular and all priests are ultra cautious not to sound political in their statements.
The Sunday vote is more simply explained by the fact that it is the day nobody was supposed to work, thus allowing them to vote easily.
163 Yes but certainly Church influence had been strong both with the July and Second Republics and in the last quarter of the 19th Century. They certainly did use the pulpit in those days to influence their flock and direct them towards favoured candidates even leading them there on rare occasions. That’s why Clemencau and his friends fought so hard for the 1905 law.
162- Rod Crosby
Most of our sermons (delivered by mainly left of centre priests of the 1968 generation) insist on the following themes:
- awareness to the plight of others / social works
- counting of blessings / beauty of creation /
- neceesity of real love in families and brotherhood in social relations
- personal relationship to God / abandon to His will
- the power of prayer
I could go on but you get the picture
Here in south west Scotland, Dumfries & Galloway, we hope to replace another useless Brown, Labour, to Conservative athough it might be tight with SNP. A breath of fresh air has blown through the country, since we got rid of Labour. The Tory and SNP are working well together
Excellent posts Easterross look forward to more
157. Morus, thanks for your reply.
I appreciate the points you make. There’s no point in having a detailed debate now about what happened. All I would say is that total turnout was similar between Labour and Conservative MPs and Labour MPs split 80:20 whilst Conservative MPs split 20:80.
ChrisD (at 154) and you are correct - there were *some* claims of an *unofficial* whipping operation. So that’s what the article should say.
Whereas it actually says “the whipping of Labour MPs on the abortion threshold vote”. To me that strongly suggests a position whereby Ministers would have to resign if they voted against the Government “line” which was of course not the position (3 Cabinet Ministers voted for 12 weeks!).
Sorry to go on about this and I appreciate all the work you do for this website. I just feel that if inaccuracies like this start creeping into articles credibility will start falling. I think this is a fantastic website and I don’t want that to happen.
161 - I think because the Irish came to Cardiff as it was being built, rather than to work in already established industrial cities. There was not a large working class CofE community already - the Protestant community would have been Capel, and would not have spoken English particularly willingly, which maybe obstructed difficulty between Catholic and Protestant.
The other factor might be that Cardiff Bay, especially the Irish part - New Town, was one of the first genuinely multicutural environments in the UK - evryone was an immigrant, but almost all of them Catholic (Maltese, Polish, Afro-Caribbean) so the community was fragmented but never bi-furcated by denomination of Christianity. More of a little New York than a Glasgow.#
In truth I don’t know the answer, but you are right to say that there has never been a history of sectarianism in anything like the same way as Glasgow, or even Liverpool or Manchester.
164- Punter
Certainly. But this fight finished a century ago and catholics haenot really tried to reopen it since.
167 - I have made an amendment to the article, so that it now reads “claimed unofficial whipping” and links to the piece in the Mail, so people can judge it for themselves.
I do appreciate your point, and there is a danger that I was conflating the official whippping on the third reading of the HFE bill with the unofficial claims of whipping on the abortion amendments. That was, at best, unclear, so your point is valid. Many thanks.
168. Was there any significant Orangeism in Cardiff? That could explain a lot…
re 121 between 6 and 8 days after the issue of the writ - dependent on the returning officer. Therefore, 4pm of either Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday this week.
170. Morus, thanks a lot, much appreciated.
168 I don’t know. I thought Glasgow and Cardiff grew at roughly the same time. Though maybe the South Wales Coal fields were a bit after Glasgow.
171 - None as far as I am aware. In fact all the Protestants I knew growin up were Baptist, Methodist, Quaker or Capel. Allegiance to the Queen and the Union Jack were unheard of where I grew up - I always put it down to Welsh nationalism, but in retrospect, it just was alian to the culture there.
174 - You might be right, but Glasgow was a much more established city before it grew. Cardiff wasn’t really anything between being a small Roman Fort and becoming the biggest coal-exporting dock in the world - industrialisation happened overnight. Glasgow was a great (Protestant) city even in the 18th Century, largely thanks to its wonderful Enlightenment university. Industrialisation and Irish Catholic immigration was transposed onto less a of a blank canvass than in Cardiff, I think.
175 Maybe. The Chapel culture was quite anti establishment in those days. Non Conformist emancipation only arrived a year before the Catholic Bill so that may have played a part, as possibly the Transport links. It was pretty easy for immigrants on both sides in Glasgow to keep close links to the Boiling pot of Ulster whereas immigrants to Cardiff a bit like America were more adrift and as a result swiftly let go their links to Ireland and were assimilated into Wales relatively quickly.
171. No, there are Orange Lodges in Wales, but in the North East, closest to Liverpool.
152 What matters is who goes out to vote. 861,000 people attending each week means 1.7 m people attending each month, which can, in some constituencies, be a hefty proportion of the people who go out to vote. The sort of people who can be bothered to attend Church are the sort of people who can be bothered to vote.
On the general point, I can’t comment (as a non-Catholic) on whether Catholics are likely to defect from Labour. Were I a Catholic, Labour’s stance on many social issues would offend me, but I’d never have voted Labour to begin with.
176. As far as I can tell, Catholics and non-Conformists in England and Wales (bar Lancashire) in the Nineteenth Century made common cause (despite their differences) against the Anglican establishment. In Ireland (and to a considerable extent, Scotland and Lancashire) the different brands of Protestant united against the Catholics.
155 Margaret Curran MSP now selected by Labour for Glasgow East
179 - Do you have a link Test?
178. In Ireland, the establishment deliberately sought to divide Catholics and Dissenters, via the device of Orangeism…
179 - their selection meeting had been postponed until Monday?
There is no doubt that church goers are more likely to vote than the public at large. A recent study by the C of E showed that a very high proportion of its members are “volunteers” in various social cativities - running OAP Clubs, youth groups, third world initiatives etc etc., and people like that are generally more “connected” to the ways in which public policy affect their particular interest group. In my church (C of E, but with overwhelmingly lay leadership, preaching etc), the sermons would never suggest how we should vote - but the Church Announcements and the Prayers leave little doubt!
from Brian Taylor’s BBC blog:
No such qualms, it would appear, may deter Margaret Curran MSP. She is now being seriously tipped as the likely contender.
She is from the East End, she is the MSP for Baillieston, in the East End. She is also a putative candidate for the vacant leadership of Labour in the Scottish Parliament.
Why would she stand? To help her party out of a self-dug hole. To earn the undying gratitude of the PM, should she win.
Should she lose, presumably she would continue as an MSP, thwarted but gallus.
What if she stands and wins? Would she then resign from Holyrood and cause a further by-election in Baillieston?
Labour declines to speculate on that issue for now, saying that she is only a potential name on a shortlist.
However, given Labour’s pursuit of Alex Salmond over being both an MP and an MSP, it might be rather difficult for Ms Curran to retain a dual mandate. It might, I would suspect, be raised once or twice during the contest.
Again, what a way to run a by-election.
180 I’ve found links to Scottish Tory Boy’s blog, which is being repeated on Conservative Home.
I’m loathe to add it as an update to the main article without known third party confirmation, but thanks for posting it here so early on. If she loses, does she still get the chance to run for Leader of the SLP, or would it look like she had already snubbed Holyrood by contesting a Westminster seat?
I thought Curran wanted to be leader of the Scottish Labour party?
179. She has a Catholic background.
Our Lady and St Francis School, Glasgow
Sure there will be a Holyrood by-election in Baillieston?
Margaret Curran
MSP for:
Glasgow Baillieston
Party:
Scottish Labour
Date of Birth:
24 November 1958
Family Information:
Married
Trade Union/Professional Membership:
TGWU
EIS
Education:
Our Lady and St Francis School, Glasgow
University of Glasgow- MA in History and Economic History, graduated 1981
Dundee Collage - Certificate in Community Education, graduated 1982
Margaret Curran Career History:
1989-1999 Lecturer in Community Education Jordanhill Campus, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow
1987-1989 Senior Community Worker Social Work Department, Strathclyde Regional Council
1983-1987 Community Worker Social Work Department, Strathclyde Regional Council
1982-1983 Welfare Rights Officer Social Work Department, Strathclyde Regional Council
http://politicsforpeople.com/msp/membersPages/margaret_curran/index.htm
185 - why have a selection meeting then?
if that is the case we will have 2 Currans on the ballot paper - Frances and Margaret -
184 But Holyrood ranks way down GB’s priority list in By-Election. An SNP victory in Curran’s seat would not bring him down. An SNP in victory in Glasgow East at Westminster could. Theefore it is an acceptable price for him.
Morus “Christian’ will be of a Petrine rather than Pauline persuasion” - Que?
I am amazed at how badly Labour are running the Glasgow East by election. Since Labour had control of when it was called, the fact that they failed to have their own selection process ready is basic incompetence.
After today, there are just 18 days left before the voting day and only 3 working days to submit the application form to actually stand!
Is the problem that Labour’s “real leader” in Scotland was Brown and that when he became the UK PM he retained control? Bendy Wendy seems to have lacked organisational competence and Brown dithered over this leading to a poisoned chalice for whoever is selected.
Question for Nick P. Instead of spinning, what you need to honestly address is what issue has the bigger potential to bring down its party Leader, Ray Lewis or Glasgow East? For me it is Glasgow East by a mile.
191 St Peter = Church of Rome, St Paul = Protestant. (Very rough shorthand; not exclusive.)
185. “would it look like she had already snubbed Holyrood by contesting a Westminster seat?”
I think the bigger problem is that it would just make her look like a loser.
One the subject of Catholic voting trends, I seem to recall Labour’s unexpected retention of Livingston in the Scottish parliament last year was attributed by some to the relatively high Catholic population in the consituency, so perhaps (unfortunately) the same may happen in Glasgow East. I’ve never understood the slavish loyalty of many of my fellow Catholics to the Labour party, but there it is.
Maybe Labour will have to persuade Mr Marshall to stand again……
194. Sorry, I meant to say Linlithgow not Livingston.
177. Catholicism has always had a very leftist tilt economically, possibly because its a lot less individualist than Protestantism. I suspect they might go across to the Conservatives in the UK, due to the Cameroon return to a social justice angle (in reality or perception) as much as the increasingly liberal social views of Labour.
191 Punter I wondered that too as surely it is the Pauline doctrine moving away from the Peter’s more Judaic base that is the real basis of most Christian belief today?
193 Can understand the Catholic bit but why Paul with Protestant.
193. Isn’t almost all modern Christianity, Catholic, Orthodox or Protestant Pauline? I thought the non-Paulines were the Messianic Jews and the gnostics.
199 Because of Luther! His reading of St Paul (especially the Epistle to the Romans) made him think that it was personal salvation y faith that was required, not adherance to a particular church which was, at that time and in his opinion, in error. So the whole of the Reformation started from a knowledge of (or erroneous belief in, according to your preference) of Paul’s theology.
202- Correct. Since then, Romn catholics have emphasized that their theology is the harmonious synthesis of the Pauline and Petrine theologies
202. He surely had an equally big influence on Augustine, one of the most influential Catholic thinkers?
I see Peter Oborne agrees with me on the allowances stitch up. The Coffee House refers to his article:
Brown knew that defeat on this vital question would have been even more embarrassing and have had a catastrophic impact on the entire government economic policy of trying to keep a tight lid on public service pay awards.
In other words, Labour MPs were told that in return to agreeing to a very small rise in their official salary, they were free to carry on fiddling their expenses.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/817836/browns-dirty-deal-on-the-expenses-vote.thtml
AugustINE? what a silly name.
202. Ok thanks for the Theology lesson.
Paul Flynn was brought up a Catholic in Cardiff and in his autobiography he says that his family was surprised and delighted when James Callaghan was selected as Labour candidate for Cardiff South in 1945, since they didn’t think that anyone with an Irish name like than would have a chance of being selected. Callaghan had been asked whether he was a Catholic. We can only speculate on whether he would have been selected for the constituency at that time if he had been.
203 Chris fP I think an emperor in Nicea might have has a lot to do with that, and came up with this compromise of the Trinity. Persecutions of those dissenting was a political priority for imperial cohesion.
Very interesting thread, thanks Morus. Relates to that discussion we were having the other night.
Personally I think this is a class issue more than a religious issue. Labour has become increasingly metropolitan and capitalist as Morus puts it NeoLiberal.
If Abortion and social conservatism outweighed social justice then labour would have lost the catholic vote a long time ago. I think it is important to remember that not all catholics will follow the orthodoxy to the letter which is why Morus is right to flag up perceptions of anti-catholicism rather than actual policies.
188. Yuk the CV of a professional politician, it looks like she hasnt held anything that could even resemble a real job. A creature from the growing parasitic classes.
211. What’s required to count as a “real job”, out of interest?
197. I think a lot of voters in Glasgow East, will be low information voters who haven’t really heard much of the “change” in conservative priorities. I also doubt the conservatives will get much coverage north ofthe border.
213. “I also doubt the conservatives will get much coverage north of the border.”
What, apart from the endless coverage we get rammed down our throats on the ‘national’ news?
211. Certainly not anything she has done, according to her CV.
Great, just what a governing party needs, one more useless individual with absolutely nothing to contribute to the collective ability of either the legislature or the executive.
214. I don’t live there. I was assuming regional news and the dead tree press tended to concentrate more on scottish politics and SNP v Labour rather than Tories v. Labour. Am I wrong?
215. She seems to have extensive experience of problems relating to social policy.
216. Exactly the kind of person that shouldnt be let within a hundred yards of a law making body.
215 The Gaz Test for candidate selection: Has a person got “(something) to contribute to the collective ability of either the legislature or the executive?”
I like it.
217. Because laws have nothing to do with social work or social policy?
218. Parliament is primarily a law making body. Being a wet ‘constituency MP’ who infantiles their electorate into believing an MP should be a glorified social worker / councillor do little to improve the laws made.
219. Because people like her sort are what is *wrong* with social policy.
216. The point I was making is that most people in Scotland are heavily exposed to the so-called ‘national’ (ie. UK-wide) news programmes, which focus relentlessly on Con v Labour, and largely ignore the existence of the SNP (and Plaid Cymru). The ‘regional news’ focuses, as it should, on the reality of four (or perhaps five) party politics in Scotland, but that can’t really redress the imbalance caused by the network programmes. So, at least in broadcast terms, it’s ludicrous to suggest the Conservatives are the ones hard done by - it’s the SNP. Admittedly, the position is more complex in the dead tree press, as so many people now buy Scottish editions of London papers.
Excellent article, Morus. Not an issue I have given much thought to over the years, but my interest in these divisions has grown in light of my own fairly recent conversion to Roman Catholicism (from the Church of England). Politically, I have always been a Conservative and I expect I always will be - I feel as at home within the party as an RC as I did as an Anglican.
220. How would you know? All you’ve seen is her CV?
And how would you know what is the right way to do social policy? Have you got any relevant experience to do with it?
Sorry was away from my desk for a while there.
This being the year of St Paul, as recently decreed by Pope Benedict, I would re-affirm that Paul is one of the dearest Saints in the Catholic Church.
Petrine and Pauline is a loose shorthand, in that Protestants took his words “and Man shall be redeemed by Faith alone” as the basis for their theology, whereas the Catholic tradition held that authority and thus salvation lay through the apostolic succession of the Popes, beginning with St Peter.
Socrates notes correctly that all modern Christianity owes Paula huge debt, because it was he who claimed that Gentiles could be saved through a belief in Christ (he was the archetypal example of a Gentile convert) and that Christ was not just the Messiah for the Jews, which was apparently the view of the original apostles.
afternoon all, BBC News 24 discussing the Labour problems picking a candidate and David Cairns the Scotland Minister who was on Question Time spinning the story about Cllr Ryan wanting to spend more time with his family. BBC reporters are questioning the spin!
224 Morus are we due another Papal visit. All gone quiet since the offer but I could see Benny tieing something in with the Consecration of Cormac’s successor to firmly stamp his authority.
2.
“Davena Rankin, Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party”
Is that that Rank Daveena from Big Bbrother?
213. I visited Glasgow East yesterday and to my surprise a few persons separately asked me if/when IDS was coming to Easterhouse again. They all seemed to appreciate he was a Tory. If Cameron (expected) or IDS makes a visit to East Glasgow before the by- election I am sure it will get good coverage in Scotland and in the constituency.
Captain Terence O’Neill was Unionist Prime Minister of Northern Ireland in the 60s. His family had changed their name from Chichester, as a female relative was an O’Neill. Just pointing this out, Chris, as something of an exception to the rule. William Craig and Ian Paisley are, perhaps, more typical names of Unionist politicians.
A lot of the real bigotry in Glasgow and the West of Scotland was re-imported from Northern Ireland, with skilled shipyard workers moving to the yards on the Clyde in the nineteenth century. This invigorated the Orange Order, and did not exactly help community relations with the considerable Irish immigrant population in the area.
The merger of the Liberal Unionists with the Conservative Party in opposition to Irish Home Rule cemented the loyalty of the Protestant working class in Scotland to the Conservative Party. Irish immigrants and their descendants found Gladstone’s Home Rule Bills attractive, and the socially-conservative Labour Party took over their votes. That was a major factor in the Conservatives taking a majority of Scottish seats as recently as 1956, i.e. in my lifetime and the lifetimes of many PB readers. This Conservative and Unionist hold on the Protestant working class has seriously declined, with Labour taking many Protestant votes in more recent years.
Councilor Ryan was right to say that the Union Flag and the UK national anthem are seen as sectarian in many parts of the West of Scotland, as they are in Northern Ireland. In Rangers supporting crowds, the Union Flag is very much in evidence.
As I have said before on here, the SNP has taken pains not to alienate the Catholic vote, which had regarded an independent Scotland as likely to be run by and for Protestants, Freemasons and Orangemen.
As has been mentioned by others on here, many voters are not that closely engaged in politics, and in working class areas such as Glasgow East, voting is in some ways still a tribal thing. This will give a lot of votes to Labour through inertia, but I would still expect the SNP to do well. There has been a sea change in Scotland. Since historical analogies are rather de rigeur on PB these days, I wonder if the loss of Holyrood last year was not something of a Singapore moment, with Labour’s aura of invincibility fatally undermined, like the prestige of the British Empire in Asia.
Likewise, the loss of patronage stemming from the loss of Holyrood, and even more from the abolition of FPTP in local elections, undermines a lot of the power wielded by the Labour Party machine, which, in its glory days, could give Tammany Hall a run for its money.
228 well done slam, and they are coming to Glasgow together
Karl Rove has refused to turn up for his subpoena to the House Judiciary Committee, claiming “executive privilege” means he has immunity from the investigation into the politicisation of the Justice Department. Does the Bush administration just live in its own little world where congressional oversight doesn’t mean anything?
I hope congress has some balls this time, and actually arrests the guy, unlike Bolten and Myers.
224 - Are we due one? Yes - last one was 1982 and that was the first since Henry VIII’s break with Rome in 1534! Maybe in a year or so - if I hear anything, I’ll keep you posted.
228 - Another Scottish Catholic, IDS…
231 - What’s amazing is that the Democrats are letting him get away with it.
81: yes, I can explicitly deny that anyone (Harriet Harman or anyone else) tried to obstruct Labour MPs from voting for an abortion reduction. It’s a rubbish press story which other papers have picked up. I voted for it myself - nobody got in my way, told me it’d not be forgotten, or anything else intimidatory. If you imagine Harriet trying to intimidate, say, Tommy Macavoy, the story is obviously silly.
There are always organised canvasses of potential supporters in advance of close votes, and I’m sure Harriet will have rung MPs to urge them to support 24 weeks. She’s perfectly entitled to. But there was no kind of whipping on the issue, official or otherwise. Two other supporters of 24 weeks canvassed me in the preceding days to ask how I’d vote, and when I said I was thinking of voting for a reduction they said they hoped I’d think again, and would I at least agree to read some material they had about it? I said “sure, fair enough”, I read it, but decided I wasn’t persuaded.
test at 24: I had a discussion on the general principle with Morus the other evening: basically I do think that the church shouldn’t try to impo9se a “3 line whip” and tells Catholics that they must vote for/against X or else be bad Catholics, but obviously we can’t really stop them doing it.
The article doesn’t actually propose a blanket ban on Catholic MPs, it queries the selection of candidates who feel *so* strongly about their religion that the church decides how they vote on important issues. But I still don’t agree with her, partly because the issues involved are in a narrow range so it’s not relevant 99% of the time. If a church were to insist that its wishes took priority over the party platform on a wide range of central issues like taxation and direction of spending, I would feel their followers wouldn’t be suitable candidates. But it doesn’t arise.
224. St Paul was not a Gentile convert. He was born and brought up a Jew, as he describes in Philippians 3.5: “circumcised on the eighth day, of the people of Israel, of the tribe of Benjamin, a Hebrew of Hebrew; as to the law, a Pharisee.”
He described himself in Romans 11.13: “I am an apostle to the Gentiles” , not from the Gentiles.
233. The Democrats buckle every time. No matter however outrageous the Republican position, they find a compromise that’s 90% of the way there.
And then they’re surprised that they’re perceived as less “strong”.
Obama’s doing the same thing right now by letting telecom companies get away with the secret wiretapping regime. It’s ridiculous. If he picked a fight over it you’d have Obama vs the administration defending its abuses of law all over the TV, with McCain left as a pale apologist for Bush. Will they never learn?
235 - I stand corrected, Padarn!
I was thinking of the fact that he was beheaded on the grounds that he was a Roman citizen, though of course this does not imply that he was not Jewish. I knew the quote from Romans, though misinterpreted it, and didn’t know of the quote from Philippians - thank you!
234 - Nick, as you can see from comment 170, I’ve made a slight amendment to the article. Hope this moderates any concerns you have about the way I’ve portrayed the vote.
I would be interested in the view of Stuart Dickson or any of the SNP supporting Pbers as to their take on the Margaret Curran candidature if it happens.
I think Labour would be taking a great risk putting her up. If she loses then she could not become the Leader of Scottish Labour at Holyrood without being derided by all her political opponents for being a failure.
I wonder how the other 2 Lab candidates who expected to be interviewed today feel? It does suggest they are only there to make up the numbers.
Re the religious aspect to this campaign, the sad fact is that although the majority of Scots would still claim to adhere to the Church of Scotland, very few have any connection with any church and belong to the “weddings, funerals and baptisms” fraternity. Most Scots at best ignore anything the Church of Scotland might say and at worst are either completely unaware of its presence or treat it with utter contempt. Generally in my experience, someone born to Roman Catholic parents remains RC all their days and even though they personally may choose not to be churchgoers, the tenets of the RC church which are ingrained into them at school never leave them so hence people like Cardinal O’Brien and Archbishop Conti continue to have some importance out with the spiritual side of the church.
Interestingly the former Scottish football manager Bertie Voghts upset both sides of “the Old Firm” when he accused them both of being fairly unpatriotic. He was of course correct to the extent that Celtic fans carry and fly the Irish national flag and sing Irish Republican songs like the Fields of Athenrye” and Rangers fans fly either the Union Jack or Red Hand of Ulster and sing songs like the Loyalist “Sash my Father Wore”. Neither side actually routinely flies the Scottish saltire!
181 Sometimes. The Orange Order was basically lower class, and Anglican, to begin with. The Irish Presbyterians tended to be more middle class, and originally disliked the organisation. Many of them were Freemasons, and, as such, were hostile to religiously based fraternities. The British government obviously saw the Orange Order as useful allies during the 1798 uprising, but subsequently tried to repress the organisation (it was officially illegal during much of the Nineteenth Century).
The growth of the Irish Home Rule party caused Anglicans and Presyterians in Ireland to make common cause with each other, and led the upper classes to support the Orange Order.
228 I understand David Cameron is going next week and also I expect IDS to visit at least once because he has kept up a connection with EAsterhouse since he launched his social policy there during his short tenure as Tory leader.
Also remember in spite of his posh accent and toff image, IDS is a SCottish Roman Catholic as well as ex Tory leader.
237. I often wonder if the existence of Christianity was responsibly for the Jews remaining such a strong identity and not blending in as Romans like the rest of the conquered population. Much of the Jewish diaspora had already started some syncretism of their faith with Greco-Roman ideas, but then Paul came along and converted them all to Christianity, removing all the integrationists and leaving only the orthodox left.
232. When was the last one before 1982. Didn’t exactly attract many even before the Act of Supremacy.
236 - I actually agree with the Obama position in general, as referenced by this diary piece by Stephen R from Daily Kos
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/3/17478/68977/980/546168
I think as long as Title II gets struck as per Obama/Dodd’s amendment, then the immunity issue is unlikely to pass, so accept no criminal charges this time, and rectify when in office.
I like pragmatism. I think it would be dangerous for Obama to have that debate, because as long as the issue is terrorism and war, it helps McCain, irrespective of the answers given. He needs the debate to be about Health, Education and Economy - lose the civil protection in Title II, and reverse the bill in six months’ time. But don’t let the War on Terror dominate the pre-convention new cycles.
Excellent article and thread. I think we have focused to heavily on the “Moral” aspect of Church teaching and its potential impact on voting. Catholicism has a very strong social tradition which would be considered left wing if placed on the defunct left/right scale. Because of “God, Guns and Gays” motif there is an assumption that Christianity’s primary political interest will be abortion and the like when often its Christians that are the back bone of Campaigns like Jubilee 2000 and Make Poverty History.
With regard to Glasgow East the Labour selection does seem like a bit of a shambles. After the “Three Jobs Bob@ Bromley campaign I’d have thought that selecting a sitting MSP in the current anti politics climate would be a mistake. It seems almost freudian. They subconciously know they are going to lose so they are behaving in a way that will make that happen.
238. “Generally in my experience, someone born to Roman Catholic parents remains RC all their days and even though they personally may choose not to be churchgoers, the tenets of the RC church which are ingrained into them at school never leave them”
I haven’t been a regular churchgoer for years and yet I still find myself wondering if my present instinctive opposition to abortion is influenced by the - let’s face it - indoctrination I received on the subject in Catholic schools as I was growing up. It’s bad when you find yourself even distrusting your own conscience.
241 The destruction of the Jewish Temple, in 70 AD, and Hadrian’s persecution of the Jews, would have ensured that many Jews were determined to remain separate from Roman society. Until recently, I hadn’t realised just how much of a religious bigot Hadrian was (unusually for an upper class Roman).
Thanks, Morus! I wasn’t claiming deliberate distortion or anything, just noting that it wasn’t quite correct. Certainly there was lots of canvassing of colleagues before the votes, and the fact that most women MPs are Labour is very significant in this context - there are anti-abortion women MPs (Kelly, Dorries, Widdecombe, Winterton and a couple more), but not many.
246 Was that a result or the trigger for the 135 revolt.
237 How do we know that Paul was martyred? Lots of people say so, but I’ve never been able to find a historical reference to it (I think it likely that Nero would have killed him, but have never found any definitive proof).
246. Interesting argument. But why do you think Jews proved so resistant to integration after Rome fell? Was it simply Christian bigotry towards them?
243. As long as the immunity protection is stripped from the bill I won’t mind too much what’s passed, as it can be revoked later. Politically though, Obama’s best trump card is to play Bush, which is far bigger than the national security card for McCain. If it’s the administration’s abuses AND national security in the news, the former will trump the latter and it will help the Democrats. It worked very well when Bush called him an appeaser.
The Labour Party’s problems in Glasgow East are the main story on the PM programme on Radio 4, and the coverage is NOT good for them. They talked of “the man who was favourite to be the candidate failing to turn up to the selection meeting.”
245. A very interesting post! Thanks!
246. Plus plenty of sacred Celtic places were destroyed by the Romans.
234. Thank you Nick for the courteous reply; it is disgusting bigotry on her part, however. The Conservative party, I’m confident, would not let an MEP displaying such prejudice against Catholics, Muslims or whoever retain our whip. Indeed candidates have been deselected for less blatant comments.
Morus, I would caution you not to downplay what happened with the HFE bill. Catholics were put on a three line whip on the third reading to vote against their consciences on issues like saviour siblings and eliminating the need for a father; religious issues. That was official, it happened, and it is shameful. It is whipping on matters like that that caused the Labour MP to write to Brown and the Catholic young Labour guy to resign.
242 - I cannot find the last one before 1982. I’ll keep trying and get back to you. If we’re keeping it to reigning pope’s (I assume we are), I’m not entirely sure a Pope has ever come to the UK before 1534.
248 The trigger. Hadrian wanted to ban circumsision, and institute Pagan worship in Jerusalem.
http://www.cwnews.com/news/viewstory.cfm?recnum=59079
Jim Dobbin MP for Rochdale.
Radio 4 coverage of Labour in Glasgow East is spectacularly condemnatory! They are really putting the boot in. Quotes from Tories, SNP, Lib Dems and a Labour guy being put through the mill.
257 I thought that Paul Rowan (Lib Dem) represented Rochdale….
250,253 The Romans hated Druidism, because of its anti-Roman stance, and (allegedly) human sacrifice. I say allegedly because incidents of human sacrifice are recorded in Roman history - and they obviously had few qualms about killing large numbers of people in their games.
WRT the Jews, I think that Christian bigotry continued where Roman Pagan bigotry left off, in the East, at any rate. In the West, outside Spain, Jews were treated fairly until a long way into the Middle Ages.
Hmmm. Am I the only one who thinks Labour are trying to push Curran into a Westminster seat (assuming she wins) to cause a by-election in a ’safe’ Holyrood seat (if there is still such a thing) to leave an opening for John Reid to come in as Labour leader?
261 With any other organisation, your idea would be dismissed as a bizarre conspiracy theory…….but for the Labour Party in the West of Scotland, it’s quite plausible.
54: there are some pretty biting football chants out there, eg Man Utd fans to visiting Liverpudlians: “You’ll nevvvvvvver work again”, to the obvious tune.
#259 Heywood and Middleton come under the Rochdale Metropolitan Borough Council, even though Middleton is closer to Manchester.
249 Clemens Romanus (4th pope) alludes to it, and Eusebius (who wrote an early history of the Church in the 5th or 6th century) states it as fact. Not sur if it is provable, I think it just became accepted as unchallenged fact, so we’ll never know. Consistent and plausible with what we know, but unproven.
254 - I’m trying to walk the tightrope here Test! I find the whipping on any matter of conscience to be wrong, and the HFE bill in particular sticks in the throat. However, had there been a formal whip on the abortion amendments, which Parliamentary convention dictate are never whipped (regulation and research seem not to be so clear cut in terms of the whipping convention) I think there would have been resignations.
Nick and I fought this out the other evening - I don’t understand why the government did whip on HFE - had it lost on a free vote, it would not have suffered, and there was little chance that it would in fact lose. Why create this problem for Catholic MPs if not just to exercise authority? A view I have heard in private is that, were it not for low polling at the moment, there are plenty of Labour members who would gladly see the party rid itself of the Catholic bloc so as to have a clear and consistent platform on gay rights, abortion, secularisation of schools etc etc, which they support. They feel the comprimise is no longer worth it.
“A view I have heard in private is that, were it not for low polling at the moment, there are plenty of Labour members who would gladly see the party rid itself of the Catholic bloc so as to have a clear and consistent platform on gay rights, abortion, secularisation of schools etc etc, which they support. They feel the comprimise is no longer worth it.”
I don’t doubt it, but that would surely guarantee them third party status.
260. My point was that the Romans massively offended Celtic religion, but the Celts still became integrated into Roman society, unlike the Jews.
I am continuously amazed that such a small group managed to maintain a unique ethnic identity for thousands of years, whether it was in Europe, Mesopotamia, Persia or (now) America. It’s nothing short of remarkable, and I’m yet to find a convincing explanation for it. The best I can think of is its a mixture of their monotheistic religion (Christians and Muslims seem to be difficult to convert also), the chosen people meme, external hostility to them and a matrilineal system.
264 Ah, Heywood and Middleton - thanks.
Obama to accept his nomination in a 76,000 capacity stadium (!)
http://weblogs.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/blog/2008/07/obama_acceptance_speech_in_foo.html
263.
“Man Utd fans to visiting Liverpudlians: “You’ll nevvvvvvver work again””
Decorum prevents me from writing the four letter Liverpool-sung response as to what the Mancs never do alone! Just let’s say that it’s something to do with the Old Trafford fave holiday resort of Tossa de Mar.
263 I liked this one
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/osm/story/0,6903,1560059,00.html
Fans delight in teasing [Robbie Fowler] about his property portfolio, singing, to the tune of ‘Yellow Submarine’, ‘We all live in a Robbie Fowler house’
254 it is convention not to whip conscience stuff including such things as hunting. Certainly the whipping on the third reading was a violation of this - why Cameron led with the questions on the matter again and again. The amendments are a side-issue. Ruth Kelly could not have voted for the bill on the third reading either so she stayed away. Brown could hardly sack her. As you say, he’s weak.
However on thread topic I don’t think there is a Catholic vote as a block.
267 Up to a point. Often, Celtic deities were Romanised, hence Sulis could be equated with Minerva.
272 - No, a bloc implies that they vote *for* something together. What I suspect might happen here is they might *stop supporting* something as one. It was largely class that bound them to Labour, it will be hostility to faith (not faith itself) that breaks that link
So, to combine Catholic/Labour and political betting, for Labour to come 3rd or worse at Glasgow East, what would need to happen? How many of:
- The deal with the DUP comes out
- Harman says something really crass at PMQs
- John Reid stays quiet
- Gordon Brown comes to the constituency
- Wendy/Douglas Alexander try to defend GHA
- IDS plays a blinder on his Easterhouse experience
- the Ibrox renovation gets announced on the back of the carrier deal
- heavy rain on the day
What are the odds? I have no views on who would come second.
274 “It will be hostility to faith (not faith itself) that breaks that link”.
Very true. And not just between Catholics and Labour. Some of the more uncharitable things said by some (mainly youthful) political activists in other parties might well turn off a number of politically active Christians.
267, 273 But I don’t think the Romans were hostile to Celtic religion *as such* merely the anti-Roman aspects of it. Roman civilisation seems to have had a remarkably seductive effect on the Celtic aristocrats. I enjoyed one comment in a book I recently read to the effect that “within a couple of generations, Bearded Beligerent Asterix had become Gaius Julius Astericus, entertaining the local Roman officers in his Domus.”
276 There are plenty of atheist/agnostic Conservatives, but very few who are actually hostile to religion, in the way that secular left wingers are.
275 - Easterross has indicated that there is the SNP/Labour fight, and then the LibDem/Tory contest, but that few voters will cross from one contest to the other. If right, for Labour to come third would mean they either get hammered by the SNP and the (eg) Tories beat the Lib Dems comfortably, or that the LibDem/Tory contest gets much higher turnout (compared to previous elections) than the SNP/Labour one.
I’d have said chances of Labour coming third from such a majority would have to be 80/1 plus, but I’m not laying that!
Totally off topic - we have a Wimbledon singles champion. Laura Robson has won in three sets.
275, 279, And your bet would be void if, like in Haltemprice & Howden, they fail to put up a candidate.
New Rasmussen poll for Rhode Island :
McCain 31% .. Obama 55%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/rhode_island/election_2008_rhode_island_presidential_election
279. Thank you. I am trying to teach myself to disentangle desirability and probability. My heart says I’d take 10/1 and my head says 100/1 - you 80/1 sounds a good estimate. I greatly appreciated Easterross’ analysis BUT Scotland is in an entirely new context now. Independence has moved from being a theoretical topic for the bar late at night to a practical proposition, and in a sense, all bets are off as to where this will take people. In this particular constituency, I am prepared (all too keen) to believe that IDS has made a personal impact. People who have been ballot fodder for generations got taken seriously for the first time in their lives. SLD is nowhere. Lots and lots of uncertainty. As in other areas of forecasting, it might be a good idea to drop point estimates and give estimates of uncertainty.
238
I cannot agree about the ‘once an RC always an RC’ idea. (Apologies for the simplification for the purposes of a quick answer).
I was born to and brought up in a very devout RC family. My mother still serves in the church and is active in the local SVP. I am, however a staunch atheist and, for example, agree with the argument that no Catholic should be head of state in England as they swear allegience to a higher tempral authority in Rome. From the point of view of allegiance first and foremost to Britain over allegiance to a religious leader elsewhere, I would actually be happier with a Muslim or Jew as head of state than a Catholic.
Nor does the Catholic indoctrination affect my view of abortion. I oppose abortion at any time after the foetus would survive outside the womb. As such I was in favour of a reduction in the time limit. But this is a humanist rather than a catholic view and I do not hold with any of the religious arguments about life from conception etc.
I suspect that Catholic indoctrination is no more or less effectiove or pervasive than any other religious indoctrination. There will be extremists in all religions and those who are easily led as well. But part of the whole process of achieving adulthood is the ability to differentiate between arguments and doctrines. I don’t think that catholics are any less able to do this than those brought up in any other religions.
*** NEW THREAD *** Vice-President Tim? *** NEW THREAD ***
Cheers,
Morus
If you cannot find the link at the top of the page, click on the link below:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/05/could-either-of-these-become-the-greatest-tim-in-history/
280 - Laura has not been listed yet on Betfair for Sports Personalitiy of the Year, but the odds on tennis as winning sport are in freefall.
284. “But part of the whole process of achieving adulthood is the ability to differentiate between arguments and doctrines”
That’s an idealistic view, but almost anyone who ever thought they were reaching an independent judgement on anything is likely to have had unconscious influences brought to bear. I’m sure every Old Etonian who joined the Conservative party imagined they were basing taht solely on their own judgement, but sometimes weight of numbers speak for themselves…
I don’t think that prior to 1982, any reigning pope had set foot in England.
Clement IV heard of his election to the Papacy in 1265, while returning through France, after a two year stint as papal legate to England.
Pius II had travelled widely in Scotland and England 20 years before his election in 1458.
And of course, our own Nicholas Breakspear was elected as Adrian IV in 1154, but he had lived in France and Scandinavia for decades…
284. What rot!
Can you explain what you mean by
“no Catholic should be head of state in England as they swear allegiance to a higher temporal authority in Rome..”
since I am unaware than any Catholic, at least in the past several centuries, has ever done any such thing….
289 Rod Crosby
Indeed!
I cannot believe how any sane person is still thinking that somehow an Roman Catholic pledges total obeyance to the pope…
290. Since 1870, the Pope’s temporal power has been restricted to the Vatican, the Lateran and the Palace of Castelgandolfo, and recent popes have gone out of their way to abjure the idea of temporal authority…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporal_power
I NEVER UNDERSTOOD WHY CATHOLIC VOTERS SUPPORTED LABOUR IN THE FIRST PLACE.
291
since the papacy still carries the threat of excommunication, the principle stands that a catholic may be forced to choose between their faith as dictated by an external human authority and their allegience to England. It is no good saying that no one has had to do so in the last few centuries. The fact that the threat remains is enough for me.
The Pope is still held to be Christ’s representative on earth there is a clear possibility of conflict of interests for anyone claiming to be a devout catholic and swearing allegience to any other temporal authority.
Interesting thread
Re the main article, given that Labour are apparently selecting Margaret Curran, an Irish Catholic from the East End of Glasgow as their candidate, who backed the Church’s line (McMahon ammendment) on Catholic adoption agencies and gay adoptions, it would not seem the best test case to argue Labour is anti Catholic.
The fact that the SNP candidate, John Mason, is a member of the Evangelical Alliance might also perhaps make it unlikely that the Cardinal would chime in on the SNP’s behalf this time.
On the matter of whether Everton are a Catholic club, I would say Rod Crosby has it right. Everton certainly have a large proportion of Catholic supporters (including me), but the club itself was founded by Methodists and has never shown any bigotry in terms of team selection etc.
I suspect the idea came about in the fifties, when Everton had a lot of high profile Irish players like Tommmy Farrell and Tommy Eglington. Also and business in the North end of Liverpool (e.g. both clubs) is likely to have a large number of Catholic customers given the local demographics.
Rod’s comment about people from Scotland Road being Irish Catholic Everton and Labour also rings true. Andy Burnham MP was quoted recently as saying his family were that part of the city and said “The Burnham family are a close-knit mob and there are three organisations that matter to us: Everton football club, the Labour party and the Catholic church - in that order.”
293. You seem to know little of the faith you claim to reject. Excommunication is not an arbitrary process. There are only about a dozen automatic grounds, and the Church’s position is that the person concerned has “excommunicated themselves”. They technically still remain members of the Church, since the Church cannot and has no desire to revoke the sacrament of Baptism.
No Catholic “swears allegiance” to the Pope. I don’t know where you get this canard from.
A person may have faith, others may describe it as conscience or just a belief. No honest person would go against this “belief”,
whatever its origin.
A good example is the late King Baudoin of Belgium. In 1990, Parliament passed a bill legalising abortion. The King, a devout Catholic, refused to give his Royal Assent (a mere formality, as in this country.) He abdicated for the day, the Constitution permitted Parliament to pass the bill in the absence of the King, and he was invited back as King the following day.
At no point did he consult the Pope, nor did he try and make it some grand issue of Church or Monarchy against the State. He simply said, in all conscience I cannot do it.
A satisfactory solution was found.
296
A perfect example then. The idea that a monarch should be able to abdicate their responsibility for the state of their nation which they have sworn an oath to protect at all times above all else is simply unacceptable. In that instance the monarch should have abdicated entirely and permanently. A part time monarch who puts their faith before their duty to the people is not one I would wish to see ruling our country.
And of course you have shot yourself in the foot since our constitution would not allow that so again it is clear that a devout Catholic should not be allowed to become head of state.
296 What a cowardly manoeuvre.
298. Pourquoi?
What would you have done, assuming you held the same beliefs as Baudoin? Or on any matter of conscience?
The rather neat solution was devised by the politicians, and seemed to satisfy all.
They literally stated to Parliament that the “King is incapacitated by a problem of conscience.” The Constitution permitted in the absence or incapacity of the King for parliament to grant assent to its own bills, which it duly did. The following day parliament was told that the “King is no longer incapacitated”
There was a lot more at stake than the issue of abortion, btw. The unity of Belgium as a state was at serious risk if the king had gone permanently.
http://www.uffl.org/Vol14/conley-04.pdf
‘In 2005, only 36% of the population voted Labour’
Labour received only 36% /of votes cast/. I think you mean ‘In 2005, only 22% of the population voted Labour’.
This is a long thread on an oldish post but I hope someone gets this because this post and most of the comments (”aren’t the natives strange?”) are complete bilge. There is no ‘Catholic vote’ in Scotland. What there used to be was a unionist vote - working class Scots voting Tory because of Labour’s policy vis-a-vis Northern Ireland. But this affiliation has been in terminal decline since the 1950s. Now, if you control for socio-economic factors, there is no statistically significant difference in the way protestants and catholics vote in the West of Scotland. There certainly isn’t any evidence that ‘Catholic voters’ are swayed by policies on matters such as abortion or stem cell research or any similar ethical issue. There isn’t even that much evidence that Catholics agree with the Vatican on these issues - never mind cast their votes according to their line. Next time you write a post about this sort of thing, it might be wise to acquaint yourself with the voting behaviour of the people you’re talking about, rather than listening to what their supposed ecclesiastical representatives say on their behalf.
A most interesting post and some very interesting replies.
Brought up in Glasgow in the 70s/80s I learned the words to certain songs before I knew what they meant.
Bigotry is, unfortunately, still running strong and can still be seen in recruitment today. I see it with every new start at my work.
If any good is to come of this it will be from showing the rest of the UK that Glasgow has not fully made the transition out of the past. I doubt it, religion is too deep in the grain.
The future is not good either, we have faith schools starting for all cultures and the spectre of sponsored academies with Fundamentalist Christian agenda looming.
As an Atheist with a background in science and not fairytales where is the candidate to represent me? Where will I be able to send my child to get an education without the religious programing?
Make all schools multi-denominational and keep the fairytales for Sunday mornings please. Heh, if you want to teach religion in my school, I want to teach science, real science that is, in your church what ever kind that may be.