Is Ireland heading for a No vote?
June 13th, 2008
-
No leads comfortably in most parts of Ireland
Early indications as the count proceeds in Ireland are that the Lisbon Treaty referendum has been lost. Tallies from the constituencies show that most of the country is voting No by a wide margin (60-40 in some Dublin seats for example).
No constituencies have yet declared, and the final result is expected by teatime. If this result is confirmed there will certainly be some thinking to be done at the EU, and will follow the French & Dutch “Noes” to the Constitution in 2005, and Ireland’s “No” to Nice I back in 2001.
No currently trades at 1.1 on Betfair with Yes available at 8.4.
RTE (live streaming available)
Double Carpet
UPDATE
First result: Waterford No 54% (Nice I 52% No v Ireland 54% No)
Irish Justice Minister concedes that No has won.
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“the final result is expected by teatime”
I laughed as Mark Mardell said this on the news yesterday. I just picture Craggy Island and Mrs Maguire saying “Go on father, will you not have a nice cuppa tea?”
OMG! What a terrible, terrible week for Brown and the British establishment! First they have to ram through illgal and draconian legislation by a grubby stitch up with the DUP!
Then David Davis takes the inspired and courageous decision to call their bluff, call a by election and force them to stand up for what they have inflicted on this nation, thus uniting opinion formers from the far left right through to UKIP and giving the Conservatives coverage that any leader should die for.
Then it appears they are such cowards and lack any courage that they are actually going to hide behind Murdochs money and the pig-headed, racist, sexist Kelvin McKenzie.
Then they have a petrol stike going on.
And now the Irish appear to have voted against the hated Lisbon Treaty, once again highlighting to the British people (who were denied their vote) Gordon Browns political cowardice and moral corruption.
Just another week in the Bunker, then!
“No leads comfortably everywhere except Galway, Kildare, Tipperary”
Yes is leading in a few more places than that, notable: Laois / Offaly (Biffo effect seems big), Carlow / Kilkenny, Dublin South and Dun Laoghaire. Leinster is the heartland for yes everywhere else no. And Galway West (my home constituency) will vote no - it is Galway East where it is close.
Will Brown turn up late to unsigning ceremony?
There appears to enough happening in the news today to push Davis off the top of the agenda (Ireland, Petrol Strikes, Afghanistan) but the BBC are clinging on to it for dear life. Just like they did with Spelman at the weekend.
Actual results are going to come in when I’m off to play football
This always happens with Irish elections!
4 -
The Lett’s video with Brown at his press conference which was flagged up here yesterday seems to have been removed from YouTube.
Wonder why?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxuRN5VQR1c
4 - Lisbon is not dead by a long way yet. Most likely outcome has to be some meaningless statements from Brussles which allow Ireland to either vote again or even retify through Parliament.
9 - er, ratify
Cork’s 2 const. have voted NO , Louth is going to NO, it seems the NE has voted NO across the board, heh
I am typing this with the RTE feed in the backgroun, I guess my audio typing skills had better improve
8 - Your not suggesting that No 10 has had it censored? In the current climate that might not be sensible.
Fantastic news!
Saves us Conservatives some problems too!
I hear from good sources that Gordon Brown has a video of the Cameron/Davis bust up and intends to release it at the moment most deadly for the Tories. On it, Davis can clearly be heard ranting ‘You’re a Tory toff, a Tory toff!’, though others interpret it as ‘You’re a Tory tough’, that is an authoritarian Conservative with insufficient regard to civil liberties. Interesting times.
9 of course Lisbon will go through regardless of what the Dutch, French or Irish vote. The EU doesnt do democracy we all know that.
Oh dear how said. Pity I don’t like Guinness… I guess Magner’s is an option though would be somewhat treacherous for a Devon man.
Some prelim figures are suggesting 60-40 and 70-30 no votes in some constituencies
(repost from previous thread and apologies for going o/t so quickly)
One other thought - there was a lot of evocation of Magna Carta yesterday. Magna Carta wasn’t written for the benefit of the peasant - it was a document written by the Barons as a way of checking the authority of King John. Indeed, many of the English Barons wanted the Dauphin of France to be the king of England.
A better example for yesterday’s events would be the Civil War which was fought to establish the supremacy of Parliament and to curtail the power of the monarch.
Whether Davis likes it or not, Parliament voted to bring in detention for 42 days without charge. He may not like it - I don’t either - but he has to recognise and accept the will of Parliament on this. Taking his “case” to the country via resigning his seat is his right but that’s NOT how politics functions in our representative democracy.
It would be ridiculous if every MP who didn’t like an HoC decision chose to resign - and many don’t have the advantage of Davis in being a virtual shoo-in to get back - and fight a by-election.
In any case, the constituency of H&H is representative only of H&H - this isn’t a national referendum. We don’t have a mechanism for that (more’s the pity). Holding a national referendum with a decision binding on Parliament would be the ideal way to debate this but again we don’t have that in our system.
[423,last thread] - “The BBC website helpfully points out thatIrish no voters voted no because they could notunderstand the treaty. Dis they ask them all?
Poor old beeboids - they just cannotundesratnd when poeple actually dont do what the beeb tells them….
by Peter Golds June 13th, 2008 at 11:52 am”
I was under the impression that one of the mroe catchy slogans of the no campaign was:
“If you don’t know, vote no”
So, er, that would just be the BBC picking up on the tactics used by the No campaign itself then.
The continued attempts by some paranoid right-wingers to paint the BBC as being peculiarly biased against them are ridiculous, notwithstanding some BBC commentators reporting things in an odd way on occasion. However, this is also sometimes biased against the Left. The BBC are not out to get you guys.
When will the EU get the message?
Perhaps we need to spell it out in clear, basic, language to them.
F**k Off!
15 - The Dutch and French at least achieved a renegotiation - Lisbon is not identical to the Constitution (not opening the argument about how similar it is!). What will the Irish achieve with their no vote? Bugger all I guess.
5, but surely DD’s actions are a masterstroke that will seal the Conservative landslide victory. Why are you so unhappy to see the BBC lead on it? Or maybe not…
Whether a ‘No’ is good news or bad news for Brown depends on what happens next. If he ends up having to try to ratify another treaty that’s not very fundamentally different, that’s extremely damaging (and I’m not sure he’d do it anyway). If on the other hand the EU decided to muddle on without further changes for the next two years, that takes away a big negative issue.
20 - Some like seanT would add two three letter words to the back of that.
19 - ““The BBC website helpfully points out thatIrish no voters voted no because they could notunderstand the treaty. Dis they ask them all?”
That is what the polls have suggested. And I would strongly agree.
5 Chris Myers In this case it will play to DD’s immediate advantage. The fuel and food supply problem will soon be unmistakable as it is in much of southern Europe at the moment - where it is getting really critical with empty petrol stations and supermarkets- and evidence of the bribery of the Duplicitous ones will come to the surface soon enough. Or they will feel cheated and blow the gaff themselves.
The rows in the Labour party about broken promises to win individual votes has only just started. Give it time to boil and bubble as Brown thinks he is safe and the lid will blow off.
22. I cannot imagine for a second that the BBC would convey it as anything but exactly the opposite.
21 ho ho ho. Lisbon isnt the same as the constitution…… the other one has bells on it!
20. Kilroy?
8. The video’s back now. Maybe just a YouTube glitch.
I can’t imagine Kilroy taking part in an election again!
416 On previous thread - I was referring to UK interest rates. But I don’t see what effect the Lisoon treaty will have on Euro rates either for that matter.
So a 100% rejection of the Treaty by those countries who were allowed to express an opinion. The Euro Constitution trumped by the Irish Constitution. Yay!!
29 QT must have been a technical glitch. Thanks. I think I will enjoy a re-run.
Double Carpet, Thanks for the radio link.
19 - Timothy - I agree that the BBC isn’t necessarily pro-Labour, but I disagree that it isn’t biased. It does sometimes criticise Labour, but always from a metropolitan-liberal-left position; always from a why-aren’t-we-spending-more, why-isn’t-the-government-doing-more point of view.
Large institutions are always going to have a culture, and the BBC is no different. It just rankles rather that we have to pay for it.
AND
I think “If you don’t know, vote no” is a pretty good approach. If the constitution is so arcane and detailed that it defies analysis, you don’t want to be ratifying it. They’re not making it complicated to hide a lot of pleasant surprises for you in there.
RTE now saying Tipperaries are voting ‘no’ (were close earlier). Will be tough for yes to win 11 or 12 if that is the case. I can see 4 Dublin constituencies, 2 Kildare ones, Laois / Offaly and Carlow / Kilkenny def voting yes. Meath East, Wicklow, Wexford, Waterford, Galway East, Limerick East seem possible to one degree or another.
Against that though are the 3 contituencies in Ulster, the 5 Cork ones, 2 Kerry ones, Limerick West, Galway West, Mayo, the 2 constituencies in Sligo / Leitrim / Roscommon, Tipperaries, Louth, Meath West and most of the Dublin constituencies.
I’m glad the Irish got a say in this, they are the only one who did. Of coures there lies the ‘get out clause’ if they do say no. “Can’t have 1% screwing it up for the other 99%” - never mind that the other 99% would in all probability have said No as well if they had had the chance.
The more I see of the way the EU operates the more convinced I become that it is a Frankenstein monster completely out of control - no idea about it’s democratic responsibilities because it is not democratically accountable.
It’s like torture. “Say no, and we will ask you again and again until you say yes.”
32 - “The Euro Constitution trumped by the Irish Constitution.”
The Irish constitution doesnt require a referendum on Lisbon. Technically the government can ignore today’s referendum. (If they feel like political suicide of course.)
20. What about “F U, E U.”
35. that is mostly paranoia, although being based in London does ensure some ignorance of the rest of the country.
Interesting article from Toynbee -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/13/gordonbrown.labour
29 The Lobby were rather shocked that the Diarists (were more aggressive than their seniors. ‘Sir” Michael White seemed most put out by Letts dismissal of Gordon Brown’s honesty.
If the Irish vote NO does this mean we can stop ratification in the UK? Will Brown now have to come out and say that the Treaty is dead? No thought not………..
26, in that, they are joined by the vast majority of the media!
At best what DD is done is a pointless gesture. Why should proving he can still win H&H change anything about the debate? Are MPs going to say, ‘Wow! You held your safe seat - again! The public have really spoken now…’
Meanwhile back in the USA
June 13 (Bloomberg) — Barack Obama learned the pitfalls of claiming the moral high ground this week when a top adviser resigned under pressure. His next challenge is whether to forfeit a huge financial edge over Republican John McCain or renege on a promise to accept public-funding limits.
Obama pledged in March 2007 to pursue an agreement with the Republicans to participate in the public-financing system, which is designed to limit the influence of big money. That was before he began shattering private-fundraising records.
Strategists from both parties say the presumptive Democratic nominee would have an advantage of more than $100 million in the general election if he declines public money and its spending restrictions. The question is how much criticism he’d take for becoming the first presidential candidate to opt out of the system, which dates back to the Watergate era.
“The pressure once again is to prove that he’s a different politician,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who worked on Mitt Romney’s primary campaign this year. Backing out would have “all the elements of hypocrisy and expediency that could hurt this pristine brand that he tries to promote.”
Catching the RTE radio program in the car it looks like a No indeed.
Talk from the yes camp is pessimistic and in areas where yes’s were expected the margin isnt as big as expected.
As mentioned last night the nos seemed to get a fair wind at the pollsn after teh yes people were turning out better earlier.
The whole of Munster says no, heh, says RTE
Gordon Brown has told Sarkozy this morning that the UK will press ahead with ratifying the Treaty.
Both Kerry const - 60/40 No
Austin Mitchell explains why he abandoned his friends and his principles in voting for 42 days. He regrets it, but it demonstrates the weakness of the parliamentary Labour party in matters of conscience. Its the down-side of twelve years of remarkable discipline. Too many have lost their moral compass.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjQfiF0j8Aw&NR=1
I am pleased to find Austin, who I like a lot, has refound his. And he has the guts and honesty to read out his ‘fan mail’ which makes this so different to some other Labour MPs we may hear from more frequently where nothing is ever amiss it seems.
Where is seanT - some vicious invective called for surely.
1.04 offer for the no now - all over.
I would like to thanks, also, DublinWatcher, whose posts, last week, on the Irish Referendum were as agreable as informative.
47 - “The whole of Munster says no”
Finally catching up with their Ulster cousins I see
Has Brown made up his mind yet on the byelection or is he still dithering? All the other major parties have declared their intentions, so what’s Labour waiting for? This is turning into another confused government mess created by Brown’s cowardice and indecisiveness.
Cameron must now press Brown to announce the Treaty is dead. This would be a real killer for the bloke who lied about the entire affair. Come on Dave time to step up.
Brown must now admit that the treaty is dead…….. come on gordon, come out from under the desk and tell the British people that the Treaty is dead.
18. Bit too much O-level Whig history there. Magna Carta actually had some effect in curbing arbitrary power, albeit largely for the benefit of a small minority and as much through its symbolic importance as its actual provisions.
The Civil War didn’t - the winners set up a far more authoritarian state than the one they overthrew. Try reading up on the Rule of the Major Generals, Pride’s Purge etc.
The Man from Del Monte says Yes.
No Camp very postive - BBC Politics Show.
38,
You keep saying this Neil about the Irish Constitution not requiring a referendum but I thought that was the whole point of
Crotty case. They said that any change which had implications for the Irish constitution must be put to a referendum.
Can the Irish government ignore a ruling of the Irish Supreme Court?
Irish Justice Minister has just conceded that the NO vote has won.
Fantastic effort, Ireland. Good for you.
451 on the last thread - lol, that’s a genuinely funny DC throwaway line. He’s got a TB-like strength there, the ability to disarm with a self-deprecating joke.
Eventually the penny must drop even with the smelly Eurocrats. Go away and think again.
Scrap the Treaty. Start all over. Have a convention where everyone is invited, not just europhile grandees like Giscard. Include eurosceptics in the debate - some of us aren’t wholly anti-EU, we actually think it could work - it just needs total and dramatic reform. And an injection of serious democracy. And we have ideas that might be interesting, believe it or not.
But in the meantime, the very first thing the EU has to do, to gain some credibility - is Listen to the People and obey. This is the third time this wretched Treaty has been kicked into touch by popular vote.
You cannot bring it back with a few tweaks yet again. You cannot bypass the electorate. You can’t force people to vote the way you want.
Show that you understand the first principles of democracy. Then we can talk.
re 21 they will achieve being told “Now you got that wrong, go and do it again and don’t be so bloody stupid”.
irish Justice Minister concedes defeat - C4 News.
Idiots!
Now you’ll have to have another one, and another one, and another one UNTIL YOU LEARN TO BEHAVE AND DO WHAT YOU’RE TOLD.
*DJ Irish Min: Unofficial Vote Tallies Show EU Treaty Rejected
The 2010 ‘Athens Pamphlet’ is entirely different to the Constitution and the Treaty and does not require a referendum. The Treaty concept has been abandoned.
LOL effing LOL
59 - The Crotty case was about the SEA not Lisbon. And was only successful on one part and then on a split 3-2 decision. The Supreme Court has not ruled on Lisbon and, like the Danish constitutional court for example, would be extremely unlikely to vote that Lisbon had the same constitutional impact and hence would be extremely unlikely to require a referendum. So the government would not be ignoring the Supreme Court. They would be ignoring recent political convention though and there would be a cost to that which is why they went ahead with a referendum.
I just received a message from Graham Watson - arguably the most senior UK MEP (he leads the third bloc in the parliament). With respect to the Irish vote he says -
“In a democracy, however, the voter is always right.”
Is this a new Eurorealism from the LibDems?
[35] - I make a distinction between the “Left” and “Labour”. The “metropolitan-liberal-left” position is also hostile to independent working class voices from the Left. Generally the BBC takes a very dim view of strikes, for example, which is contrary to the supposed myth of a rabid anti-Tory position that some on this board maintain.
Having said that, I much prefer the BBC then media moguls employing their right-wing chums to give us Fox News, etc.
51. Not feeling especially vicious today, I’m feeling lofty and magnanimous, and very chuffed.
Of course if the fecking euroslugs try and bring the Treaty back AGAIN, then my mood might change - just a tad.
62. if ever we do need to send a representative to Brussels to have such a debate, I agree that your contribution of ideas would be “interesting”.
So Tony Blair does not get the job he wanted after all
71 - “Of course if the fecking euroslugs try and bring the Treaty back AGAIN”
As Gerry Adams may well be tempted to say in the near future: “it hasnt gone away you know”.
@71:
Don’t worry Sean. The foul antidemocratic slimeballs will have plans to ignore Ireland’s decision in place by teatime.
Let the fury recommence.
ICM poll reported on Coffee House - if there were to be an EU ref. in UK:
No 51%
Yes 28%
Don’t know 20%
No sh*t, Sherlock. Tell us something we don’t already know.
re 54 what by election? Darling still hasn’t made the appointment.
Any noise from the Brussels elite?
Or more of the same…we can ignore it, 1% holding 99% to ransom, we know best, vote agian and again…
..and Goggsie, where is he?, the man who wrote the incredibly titled “Courage”, where is he? Wonder if he’s got the 1997 election theme tune on, “Things can only get better”…think he was an Irish singer too!!
48. Quelle surprise. Labour continues in its authoritarian mode.
71 seanT your post at 62 is nonetheless one with which I wholly agree.
18
Not exactly true Stodge. Whilst it was not intended for the peasents, from the 17th century onwards it has been used as the basis for most of the constiututional reforms in the UK (and the basis of the US constitution.). Both the 1679 The Habeas Corpus Act and the 1689 Bill of Rights use the Magna Carta as a basis for their principles.
Perhaps a case of unintended consequences but there are very good reasons why the Magna Carta is held in such esteem by Libertarians and others opposed to overbearing state power.
[35] - Oh, and I agree with you about the referendum slogan - I just thought it bizarre that it was used against the BBC as an accusation of bias.
First official result is that Waterford has voted No.
77 Has Davis applied yet? Maybe there is a vote coming up that he wants to go to or more likely he wants to put a question at next PMQs (but will Martin ask him?)
David Davis on BBC Radio 2
EU Constitution - Lisbon Treaty - Athens Pamphlet - Barcelona Postcard - Mikinos sheet of A4 ……. They can bring it back and change the name but it will NEVER be approved by voters!
Frist result in and Waterord is no - that is one of the few that had a chance of going yes according to early tallies. I think there will yes results in only about 9 or 10 constituencies and a comfortable no win overall. Hopefully I wont be too shocked when I come back from football in a couple of hours time!
69 - This is exactly what’s wrong with the EU - Nobody has ever heard of the leader of the third-largest party (or the first two, for that matter), despite the fact that he’s British! The whole thing need reforming from root to branch.
86 -
81. Correct. Whereas the Commonwealth & Protectorate delivered arbitrary government, ultimately little more than a military dictatorship. Plus a disturbing input from religious fanatics.
Re: the beeb. Not so much that it’s pro-Lab by intention, but it definitely is pro-statist which has the effect of producing a viewpoint that is congruent with that of Labour on many issues.
Why oh why didn’t I go with my gut on this and place a bet last night?
New bet:
How many months before the gEUstapo asks Ireland to vote again and this time give the *right* answer?
48. I think he has to say that right now… we will press on with ratification - would look bad otherwise - like he was immediately desperate to escape the euro constitution dilemma!
However Brown now has a chance to get himself off the hook: he can justifiably say, in a few weeks, this Treaty has fallen, we need to renegotiate for Ireland. In that light parliament will have to pass the Treaty again. All this will take years - kicking the problem safely past the next General Election.
This is a golden opportunity for Brown to solve, for now, his europroblem. However such is the stupidity of the man, I suspect he will choose the worst option - pressing on with ratification regardless, and joining his peers to ignore the Irish result, probably because he will see it as some sort of virility test.
Brown has such a need to pass virility tests, I am beginning to wonder if he is actually lacking a testicle.
The Monorch of the Glen.
91 - A state funded broadcaster being pro-statist do you think the one flows from the other?
81 Agreed. Magna Carta subjected the Executive to the proto-Parliament of the time, and did define the rights of freemen. As important though were the reforms of Henry II on the justice system, creating juries & Crown courts, which added to Magna Carta in creating a legal acceptance that all were under the Law but protected from arbitary justice.
91. Yes, it largely reflects the views of the left-liberal middle class pseudo-intellectuals that populate it.
86. lol.
How will the EUphiles explain this vote away?
“It was the blatant lies put about by the Daily Mail and Sun which caused people to vote against this.”
Oh, wait a minute..
Davis doing a good job to quash rumours of division in Conservsative party on Radio 2.
93. “The Monorch of the Glen.”
The Bollock of the Glen?
92 I went for it this morning before the market moved - it just felt right
Kelvin MacKenzie is coming on BBC Radio 2 later. Ugh I’ll have to control my anger.
Surely the Eunuch of the Glen?
20 Casino
Would that clear basic language be ‘fink off’ or ‘feck off?’
Malcolm
69 - Let’s hope so!
Is it just me or has the site been hyper ever since Davis’ announcement?
I don’t just mean the immediate aftermath, I mean even now it’s still more active than usual by a long shot.
A suggestion for David Davis’ rallying cry in the upcoming by election.
“Does Magna Carta mean nothing to you? Did she die in vain?”
(Tony Hancock, 1959.)
94. Didn’t used to, its objectivity was legendary. But that was before the days when TV multi-channel broadcasting got to be bloody expensive. When you survive by sucking on the public tit it sort of justifies it (if only in your own mind) by advocating that the public tit ought to pay for damn near everything. Otherwise paranoia could set in.
Funk off?
106-”Is it just me or has the site been hyper ever since Davis’ announcement?”
It’s not just you!
[106] - Well, yes, but there’s so much going on at the moment - the Irish EU Referendum would have made this a busy morning anyway. Then there’s the fuel strikes, which would surely have generated more comment on any other day..
106. I think, for the first time in a long time, people are being inspired to discuss and debate. David Davis has woken people up from their slumber. And with Ireland now voting against the Lisbon Treaty, it really looks like theres victory in the air for the “little man”
I just hope this feeling of interest and excitiment will stir across the nation over the next few weeks. Its time for people to get involved and stand up and be counted.
100, Having just claimed that Brown only had one testicle, when I said he was “Monorch of the Glen” I was obviously making a fiendishly clever pun on the Greek “mono”, for “one” and “orch” for “testicle” - and the fact that Brown is Scottish, hence “glen”.
But of course you knew that.
If I’d said he had no testicles at all, then “Eunuch of the Glen” would have been more accurate, but not, I’d aver, as punny.
Ugh Kelvin MacKenzie and Hazel Blears. Two people I’d be happy if they never spoke again
114 - no mean comment, please, on this glorious day.
112. I agree. I was thinking that just now as I walked the beach, my celebratory Singha in hand.
This all ties into an overall contemporary theme of the ordinary guy, the man on the Clapham tram, the little people, us, the voters - fighting back against the authoritarian and arrogant elite.
First Obama, then Davis, now the Irish.
Perhaps it’s fanciful, but I do think the voters are in the mood for a bit of mutinous fun. Power has drifted too far from the people, across the world - and the people sense it.
Can I suggest a minutes silence on pb.com in honour of all the Europhile traitors who have died today. Let us take a moment to reflect on the death of their beloved, corrupt, gravy train project. Nick Clegg and Brown will be in deep mourning having seen their principles so cruelly murdered by the Irish vote.
(puts on black armband)
114. Mackenzie is going to make an utter fool of himself.
93-The Monorch of the Glen.
Hilarious!!!)))
btw-saw on Guido’s blog from a poster if parties say they will hold a referendum on any future European integration in future manifestos, etc - will they (Lab/LDs) be believed?
Another nail in Labour’s 2010 coffin?? The Tories will most certainly have that manifesto commitment, the LDs could decide to by and large write off the South and SW and concentrate on the Euro-leaning left/liberal vote (and gain seats off Labour), but, and Labour? If they say they’ll hold a referendum, no one will believe them. If they don’t, it’s almost even worse.
[I remember that Tony was bounced into promising a Euro and Euro-constitution referendum. It must have consumed his innards that he ever agreed.]
Fink off. Feck off. Funk off. Fork off.
Whatever.
The gEUstapo don’t seem to be able to recognise the democratic verdict of the people, so maybe some stronger messages are needed.
They are sowing the seeds of their own destruction. There is only so long the EUSSR can ignore the democratic will of the people before they make themselves heard. If not through the democratic political process, then outside it - by whatever means that may be.
And, when it reaches that stage, the whole edifice of the EU project will come tumbling down around their heads.
117. If only that were true. But the EU beast is like the monstrous Hydra - cut off one head and several more sprout in its place. This isn’t the end, and I doubt it is even the beginning of the end.
116. Yes, and of course Labour just don’t “get” it at all. WHich is why their initial reactions to what Davis did yesterday was so hyper that they actually thought it was good news for THEM! Thats how out of touch with the mood of the people they are.
118. He comes across as so right wing the BNP wont stand and just back him
Iain Dale reporting Mackenzie’s just said:
“Have you ever been to Hull? It’s a shocker, an absolute shocker.”
Whoops.
” Davis doing a good job to quash rumours of division in Conservsative party on Radio 2. ”
This suggestion from the press is genuinely puzzling. How can the Tories be divided on issues they agree on?
It’s very odd where this division / turmoil headlines are coming from. It seems journo’s have basically made it up because it sounds dramatic.
How long before they give up and move on quietly?
Also, why - specifically - is this bad news for Cameron / Tories?
Anyone remember how the Spelman issue was going to destroy the Tories just like week?…
124. What a clown. He’s going to lose his deposit.
118. Make?
[123] - Except that even the BNP are supporting Davis (they opposed 42-days). Strange, but true
125, quite. They agree on the policy entirely, but are apparently deeply divided, as Brown hilariously said at a press conference.
Hearing him talk of a stunt is laughable. Davis should play that over and over again and remind voters just who the cunning stunt is.
125. He made a good point in saying “Why would Cameron install Grieve who said he’d repeal the law as soon as the tories are in power if he disagreed with [Davis] on this issue?”
” Having just claimed that Brown only had one testicle, ”
Apart from his ears, hands and feet - is there any organs / parts on or in Gordon Browns body that he actually does has a genuine pair of?
124, Also read that, Mackenzie has done something similar to Hull that the Sun did to Liverpool.
The BBC WATO just reported the same comment.
His candidacy is over before it begun.
96. funnily enough that is a description used frequently on here to describe anyone not subscribing to a certain robust right wing viewpoint.
124/6. The only reason I dispute ketley’s claim at [118] is that he is already an utter fool.
Gordon surely can’t allow McKenzie to put the case for him? Can he?
128. I do remember reading that actually. Should really think first before I post.
But….why are the BNP against it?? :S
131-Certainly not two brains
Brown’s already phoned Sarkozy to promise he’s still going to ratify…
Hole spade digging stop out throw now
113. Thanks.
One could also always annoint with the less witty - but frankly more accurate - title of: “King Cnut of the Glen”.
125. They’ve made it up because they have no other explanation. In their book, resignation = division and split.
124. they probably agree in Howden!
Sligo votes 57% No (again, up on Nice).
Labour putting up Mackenzie as their front man is wonderfully symbolic, isn’t it? This is the sort of person Labour is now appealing to - someone who personifies all the ugliest and most unpleasant traits in modern Britain. Like the caricature crazed, mouthy, ‘w*gs begin at Calais’ taxi driver.
137, Brown: subservient to foreigners, tyrannical to us (when he can get away with it).
Give us a damned vote, you unelected oaf!
BBC now enters 3 days of official mourning at the loss of the Treaty. Mardell saying that the countries will just press on and ratify it anyway………shock
130 - That’s the key point Benny. We still haven’t had an adequate response to that point. It just makes no sense if you support Davis to remove him from the frontbench rather than appoint a stand-in. The policy difference is of course that Cameron refused to commit to repeal and/or vote against a renewal of 42 days at some future point.
So, anyone here think Cameron is currently kissing an Irish Flag?
Even the BBC Website are having to lead with this.
Story of Brown calling French President and saying ratification will continute being reported. Go Brown, take Davis off the front pages!
143. Hmm picking up on another theme in the thread, doesn’t Brown rather resemble King John Lackland - the latter even lost a heap of gold (in the Wash), didn’t he?
139. Although, to be fair, even The Telegraph is reporting it this way.
Disgraceful.
Do they think principles don’t sell newspapers?
134. This is the big danger for Labour - if they let Mackenzie stand “in their stead”, Labour will be associated by default with all Mackenzie’s viewpoints, some of which are to the right of Tamurlaine the Great.
Then Brown will be asked “do you support Mackenzie when he says gypsies should be publicly incinerated, or do you support Davis who believes in freedom liberty and happiness for all” - tricky.
Davis has put everything into flux. My guess is that Cameron, being intellectually and emotionally more nimble than Brown, will be able to handle the fluid situation with greater deftness.
145 - “The policy difference is of course that Cameron refused to commit to repeal and/or vote against a renewal of 42 days at some future point.”
Erm, the party is committed to repeal, and will only vote for 42 days etc if there is new compelling evidence. The split story is rubbish.
Anyone wanting the official county results from Ireland cana find them here:
http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?f=172&t=37002
So far
Sligo North-Leitrim
No 56.7%
Yes 43.3 %
Waterford
No 54.3%
Yes 45.7%
Tipperary South
No 53.2%
Yes 46.8%
Tipperary North
No 50.2%
Yes 49.8%
Kerry North:
No 59.63%
Yes 40.37%
124 - I’m from Hull, lived here all my life, and rather proud of it too. Mr Mackenzie is going to seriously regret that comment.
145 It does make sense if you use your Brain. The By-Election was Davis not Cameron’s wish. Regardless of policy he would leave an open door potentially to similar fait accomplis if he left Davis’s position open, eg if it was good enough for Davis why not me. There has to be a consequence to it. For that alone it happens. There are no Policy differences that caused it.
Question: IIRC there’s a poll due this weekend. Will the survey be held during/after the DD resignation? If yes, then it could make very interesting reading - for all parties.
150 - But the reason that Grieve announced they would repeal is because Davis bounced them into it by resigning!
Again, perhaps you can answer why Davis has been removed from the frontbench rather than a temporary stand-in being appointed? It does not seem to have been a question answered by any Tory here or elsewhere.
147
And apparently died of a surfeit of lampreys in the castle at Newark - my home town :-).
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if history could repeat itself.
Dont forget 252LW for all your Irish radio needs!
@155:
Well, Davis’s move was a unilateral one. Dave’s allowed to be a bit sore about it for a while. I’m sure he’ll get over it.
RTE @ 13.16
It seems certain that Irish voters have rejected the Lisbon Treaty.
[135] - No idea, I’m just relieved that it means they won’t pick up 15+% in the by-election.
155 - Davis removed himself. Secondly had Cameron appointed a stand in it may have looked like a tactical ploy by the Conservative Party. Whilst Cameron may want to leverage the positives he still is tactically astute enough to insulate himself from the potentiality of any negatives. It is simply realistic politics.
One of the most invidious arguments made in the various European Treaty referenda is that those who vote no “don’t understand the treaty”.
If you are going to put a constitutional change to the people the onus is on you to explain what it means. This onus is particularly strong where, as here, the underlying document is so long and tortuously drafted.
People have a right to reject constitutional change, on the “ain’t broke, don’t fix” principal, even if they do not fully understand the nature and implications of the proposal.
There is much in the Lisbon treaty which is inoffensive and clearly beneficial to the smooth operation of the EU. But equally there is much which is political/quasi constitutional, and a compelling case needs to be made for people to support that, particularly as they perceive (not unfairly) that it amounts to a further concentration of power in a remote place.
I hope the EU takes note of this. I hope it tackles the democratic and accountability deficits and matures into a more efficient, more democratic, leaner body.
Just want to say that pb.com was the first to propose a Sun Editor as an opponent to DD. Where we lead others follow.
156. Richard Tyndall. That was Henry I. I always go easy on the lampreys myself.
159- Yes, its pretty much certain now. Estimated vote seems to be 55/45
@ 1 - a pedant writes - Mrs Doyle, not Mrs Maguire.
Surely Jack on Craggy Island is a definite “No” voter
149 - “This is the big danger for Labour - if they let Mackenzie stand “in their stead”, Labour will be associated by default with all Mackenzie’s viewpoints”
Why? Do the Lib Dems and the BNP get associated by default with all of Davis’ view points because they’ve stood aside to support him?
If Brown gets asked “do you support Mackenzie when he says gypsies should be publicly incinerated”, can’t he just say “no”?
I’d be surprised if MacKenzie actually ends up standing, not least because it has the potential to make Murdoch look like a bit of an idiot. Happy to make a small charity bet on this if anyone is convinced that he will stand.
156. Wasn’t it peaches and cider that supposedly did for King John?
164 - Didn’t King John die of dysentry?
Maybe about the lampreys but John certainly died at Newark. Now I have to go and find out what the surfeit was. See if we can feed it to Brown as well.
162. What produces a belly laugh is that the eurocrats deliberately made it unreadable so that no-one would be able to muster a coherent argument against it.
Hoist by their own petard.
156. I’ve always wondered what consitutes a “surfeit” of lampreys. How many is that then? 7? 9? 568?
I’ll have five lampreys please.
Of course, Sir.
No, make that six.
But my Lord, that’s a surfeit!
Perhaps Nick Palmer could enlighten us. He’s good on these strange imponderables. For instance, until Nick told us, I never before realised that the Price of Liberty (and indeed the price of Palmer’s conscience) is the same as a Giovanni Mocha Sofabed Sofa from MFI:
http://tinyurl.com/5wrm8m
170. Well Brown certainly looks ill, so there is another similarity…
Kelvin mcKenzie has just been quoted as saying “We cant let Davis stand unopposed, the last time we did that Gordon Brown became PM”!!!! Come on Gordon, Roger, NickP etc etc come out and support Kelvin
I think there’s an element of delusion among some Tories on here, I’m sorry to say. Nobody - not any sane person - would walk out on becoming Home Secretary in just 23 months time (at the latest) and implementing everything you want to do (including on 42 days) if there wasn’t some wider agenda.
All for a piece of legislation that will never become law anyway.
He must be seriously, seriously naffed off with things at the top of the Tory Party to have done what he has done and resign himself to life on the backbenches - assuming he gets back that is. I’m so sorry that he and DC have been unable to reconcile their differences.
I’m clearly not a lone voice on this, that seems to be the consensus among political commentators and the media.
Kerry South
No 57.4%
Yes 42.6%
167 - I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if Murdoch is using MacKenzie to *force* Brown to fight this one - “argue your case or I set my Tourettes Monkey loose”.
@166:
Those referendum results in full:
NO: 44%
YES: 18%
FECK OFF: 16%
DRINK: 6%
GIRLS: 4%
ARSE: 2%
THAT WOULD BE AN ECUMENICAL MATTER: 3%
I think this move by DD is good for British Politics in that it shakes up the nonsense on how the state deals with organised terrorism and peoples right for freedom.
If you think about it, 42 days, CCVT, bans on groups , ASBO’s etc are all down to a failure in society. Cameron would say it is the “Broken Society”, in this sense all Davis has done is sharpen the focus on this attention. I believe the Tories need to commit to Davis unequivically to reinforce this message.
I am still surprised at how well Clegg has played this, what a cunning devil not running a candidate as it causes the attention to focus on Davis, 42 Days and looking at some Labour comments potential splits. Clegg could well be the benificiary of the DD action!
170 - According to wikipedia he may have died of dysentry bought on by a surfeit of peaches.
145 James “Cameron refused to commit to repeal and/or vote against a renewal of 42 days at some future point.”
Please stop digging. Here is Cameron to speak to you personally. Please note what he says about continuing to oppose 42 days.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/772721/footage-of-camerons-response.thtml
@180:
And a collupsus of his back promise.
Sky turning on Davis: “tory turmoil”, “not a single tory mp supports him”, “no money for his campaign”
178
LOL
King John - variously reported to have died of either dysentry or too much food and drink. So a surfeit of surfeits perhaps.
183 - Who owns Sky and the Sun? Who used to edit the Sun and may stand as a candidate?
177- Isnt it his son in charge now? (DCs mate aparently)
It the first time that I’ve had the time to comment on the DD issue, so apologies for going off topic.
If DD had been leader and one of his shadow cabinet members had gone against his wishes and forced this by-election what would he have done?
DC should not only have sacked him, but he should have his membership of the conservative party withdrawn. If he wants to stand he should stand as an independent.
I wouldn’t think that his local authority are pleased at having to spend £’000s on the by-election admin, polling stations and count. How much will this publicity stunt cost local tax payers?
Why on earth are the Lib Dems not contesting the by-election? I could understand it if DD was standing as an independent, but if he’s standing as a Tory?
This is an abuse of our democratic system by a self-seeking publicist. I expect the media to see it as such and if the BBC devote any time to a by-election special on this I will be disappointed.
If DD thinks that the majority of people care about what he has done he has spent too long in the Westminster village and needs to get out more.
@183:
Oh do shut your neck, Rodney.
124.He’s right though it is! I have relatives in Goole which is on the edge of Davis’seat.That place is even worse!
Well it’s clearly a nonsense to say that not a single MP supports Davis, John Redwood came to his defence within hours! Now it’s time for more Tory MPs to do the same.
183
so we will just be imagining those Tories when they turn up to support him in H&H then?
That would be Sky news - part of the same media empire that the only likely opponent works for? Hardly what one would call unbiased are they.
171.
As one who in their daily life often uses English translations of EU regulations, let me assure you that there is nothing deliberate about it - the multi-party drafting process seems to invite linguistic distortions; and that’s before the drafting is (i) “enhanced” to ensure that cultural sensitivities are respected; and (ii) “translated” - and I use this word in the loosest sense -into something approaching English.
179. Very good post Martin, especially ppgh 2. You seem to have dropped your ‘act’ entirely now.
@192:
The EU refers to the process, rather charmingly, as “toilettage”.
Any implication that the Treaty of Lisbon is only fit for wiping your arse on is merely coincidental.
I watched some of election 1979 on the BBC last night.
It was interesting some of the parellels between then and now in terms of politicians saying the Labour government was loathed by the electorate because of the intrusive nature of the state.
The contless number of times people said they wanted the state off their back was really an eye opener. As was the fact that Tory taxation policies were more popular than Labour as were some other areas of tory policy. The only difference was the PM was more popular than Maggie(Not surprised there!). Where as DC has been more popular than Brown, something despite the DD “action against the intrusive state campaign” is unlikely to reverse.
191. No indeed. But isn’t it pathetic to see how the whole empire is no more than a mouthpiece for the proprietor’s deranged views? Even the BBC isn’t that bad.
191. It’ll be a circus - just wait and see…
Just a technical question. Are there regulations that limit newspaper/media owners from running election campaigns? All that “free” publicity would count towards expenses, wouldn’t it? Just a thought. If MacKenzie stood he’d be better off as an independent.
@197:
I certainly hope so.
Circuses are ACE.
RTE Radio: Its virtually definate now. Ireland has voted No.
193. Thank you! It’s just politics has become “alive” again! \When it becomes one sided its boring!
Who says Friday the 13th is unlucky Now?
After being tricked by Edward Heath into voting Yes, I demand another in/out referendum to correct my error and Heath’s crminality
200 - Yup. Irish Ayes are *not* smiling.
Dublin South-West
No 65.1%
Yes 34.8%
Mayo
No 61.7%
Yes 38.3%
Turnout much higher than usual
The Sun columnist said he was approached by the paper’s proprietor Rupert Murdoch and current editor Rebekah Wade who suggested he could step up to the challenge.
And bookies Ladbrokes has given the tough talker odds of 16/1 to win the seat.
Mr MacKenzie insisted the step was “not a publicity stunt” and he would be “doing it on behalf of The Sun.”
Defending claims the by-election could become a pantomime, he said: “It would be a bigger pantomime if David Davis were allowed to stand alone. That would be shocking for democracy.”
Advertisement
“The Sun is very hostile to David Davis because of his stand,” he said.
Speaking about the former Shadow Home Secretary’s resignation and subsequent by-election, Mr MacKenzie added: “This is a bizarre cost to the taxpayer.”
#8 Witan
The Lett’s video with Brown at his press conference which was flagged up here yesterday seems to have been removed from YouTube.
Wonder why?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxuRN5VQR1c
Works for me at the moment.
Will the Sun have to carry an imprint?
Has DD formally resigned his seat yet?
I hope he reconsiders his moment of madness whilst he has time and we can all try to forget it ever happened, let the Tories eat some sh1t for a while and then move on.
I also hope DC is giving some thought to a proper reshuffle over the summer. No way does the voter-unfriendly and slightly creepy toff Grieve deserve to be in such a high-profile public role.
After 8 Results (of 43):
NO 57.6%
YES 42.4%
Does anyone know the correct process for ending the ratification process? When the constitution was voted down it meant that our ratification referendum was suspended so surely all UK moves to ratify the treaty must now be stopped. Brown cannot say he will continue with ratification when the treaty is clearly dead.
Come on DC, fire it up.
[187] - Oh, please. Davis has resigned after a close vote on a matter of basic personal liberty. A vote that was won by the government only after buying votes by doing backroom deals involving money for NI, votes at the UN, etc
He is now asking for his constituents to support him so that the government cannot claim it has the legitimacy of public support to use the Parliament Act to push it through against opposition in the Lords. His example may help to stiffen a few backs on the Labour backbenches and defeat the provision for 42 days.
I can’t help but have a lot of respect for him, despite the fact that he’s a Tory in favour of the death penalty. If you’d asked me on Tuesday I’d have said that I’d rather chew my own leg off than vote Tory, but, honestly, it doesn’t seem so outrageous now.
I wonder how Gordon would react if one of his own MPs decided to force a by-election on Brown’s ‘ratification’ of the EU treaty/constitution.
With respect to Davis he has clearly caught out his opponents and commentators on the hop, and doing the unexpected can be more damaging to them and their reputations. In any case Harvard doesn’t offer places to fools.
O/t local BBC news Avon and Somerset’s Chief Policeman has had his laptop stolen earlier this week.
“How much will this publicity stunt cost local tax payers?”
Probably about 50 pence a head.
Dublin South-West
No 65.1%
Yes 34.8%
Mayo
No 61.7%
Yes 38.3%
Can anyone answer my questions in 207 and 198? would like to know.
Sorry Simon - missed you had posted those
183 RofCrosby “Sky turning on Davis..”
That wouldn’t be Jon Craig again would it? His reports last night seemed to be drifting of to 1994-land so I am not surprised. Perhaps he thinks his master will give him a pat for the spin?
How can he claim that no MP has given his support when the leader of the Tory MPs has said he will go to Hull to campaign for DD?
‘Tory Turmoil’ only in the hacks imaginings. Tory surprise, astonishment yes. Turmoil, no.
And ‘no money for his campaign’ is not certain but likely as this is a personal venture. DD seems to want to raise money himself by what he has been saying as this is part of the demonstration of how opposed people are to the Brown Imperium. But I wouldn’t be surprised that some central Tory money were not put into indirect support like the cost of Cameron and others traveling there.
212 - what would make H&H interesting, assuming it happens at all, is if MacKenzie/The Sun turn it into a referendum on the EU. Will DD stick to the official Tory line, whatever that may be?
Because the EU issue has suddenly become more important than 42 days, and will be in 3 wks time too.
206 join to choose yes it started working again almost as soon as I had posted that, as someone else pointed out. Sodslaw.
How interesting - 22 posts from members of the public to “Mark Mardell’s Euroblog” and every single one of them is marked as “his comment is awaiting moderation”.
Surely this wouldn’t be BBC censorship, would it?
“How much will this publicity stunt cost local tax payers?”
A tiny fraction of the amount Brown cost us in bribes to the unionists and other potential opponents.
208 Bob, Dominic Grieve has done a lot of the legwork in the past for David Davis’s triumphs over Home Office ministers, he is very capable and whilst he doesn’t have Davis’s common man credentials will outshine Jacqui easily. Cameron wants a settled senior front bench so that transition into office is well managed and progress is made from day 1. So don’t expect a major re-shuffle.
Still, who would have thought it, The Conservative & Unionist Party versus The Sun Party (prop R. Murdoch).
203 animal. (ROFL)
(Despite being generally pro-Europe myself.)
218. I don’t think Mackenzie will get many votes at all. Davis has the name recoginition and has defined the context of the debate.
Is *Mackenzie* just joking abouting standing? I don’t think it will do Newgroup international much good directly entering politics. Did not the Rothermeres try this in the 1920’s or 1930’s against someone who did the same. IIRC correctly the politician was relected and it was seen as a humilation for the newspaper editors.
The other interesting thing is how widely would the Sun newspaper be read in H & H - I should imagine there are only a few thousand copies sold in that area.
197. Can we expect Sam Fox on a tank a la Wapping!?
It’s a pity David Davis isn’t a Liverpool MP - I would have liked to see the Sun campaigning there.
The amazing thing is the vote in Ireland isn’t even close - AND turnout is actually quite respectable.
This makes the vote doubly impossible to ignore, if such a thing is, er, possible.
They can’t claim the turnout is derisory, therefore the vote can be ignored; they can’t claim the vote was so tight it should be rerun.
It’s a big fat f***ing NO, guys.
Interesting updates from Google News. One French minister is saying Lisbon will go on, we will all ratify, and “come to an arrangement with the Irish” (i.e. screw you, Paddy); meanwhile another French minister is saying “that’s it, Lisbon is dead”.
Chaos in euroland. Heh.
As the dust settles it’s clear that Brown has pulled off another remarkable strategic blunder. In his efforts to split the Tories he’s managed to show them as principled while at the same time removing a potential thorn in Cameron’s side.
It’s likely that Davis will now become a maverick figure known for a single issue. Alternatively as Home Secretary Davis may have had a destabilising effect on Cameron’s Premiership in the same way that Brown destabilised Blair.
Maybe Brown didn’t want the next Prime Minister to suffer the same fate he inflicted on Blair.
152 Serious question, Andy - do the residents of H&H think of themselves as living in part of Hull, or distinctly separate from it? Is it a Yorkshire variant of the old “I don’t live in Brighton, I live in Hove, actually” gag?
[220] - No, probably just the wrong person taking a long lunch break…
198/207 - No, it won’t need an imprint. MacKenzie would be standing as a private citizen and the Sun is an established newspaper which can take whichever editorial line it likes. A difficult loophole to plug.
A similar issue arose in the Littleborough and Saddleworth by-election where the Mirror came out strongly pro-Labour (naturally). On polling day, there was a big front page directed specifically at the constituency - Lib Dem activists had bought every copy in the district and taken them to the tip by 9am!
202. Your memory must be playing tricks - the referendum was in 1975 - Wilson was PM, not Heath.
231 Maxwell gave away free pro-Labour Mirrors on Polling Day in Brecon & Radnor by election in 1985.
[198] - I think that MacKenzie would be running as an independent, just one with a large donation from News International and partisan backing form the companies news outlets.
175. And of course, the press lobby are always right aren’t they? Remember how Gordon Brown was an economic genius that would lead Labour to a new golden age with his brilliant “vision” for the nation that he had been waiting to unveil? And of course the autumn election that Brown was going to win by destroying all before him. And the Irish YES vote that we would see today. Bottom line is; most of the time Political Journo’s talk an absolute load of cr*p and follow events like puppies.
I had to laugh an Kelvin M’s comments on Hull! He hasn’t even stood and already he’s shown himself up! Surely Brown can’t let this clown put his case for him, can he?
Oh and why am I not surprised Brown has reportedly said he will “press on regardless” with ratifying Lisbon? Typical cowardly Brown. The longer he goes on ignoring democracy, the greater the chance Labour might be destroyed at the general election, to such a degree that they never recover!
231 Similar issue in Brecon and Radnor.
196. Murdoch has no control over the editorial stance or decisions of The Times or Sky News. The Sun, however is his baby. Some of the rare interviews he does, he was asked specifically about Sky News, and if he tried to interfere. His comments were along the lines of I wish, and they just ignore me and dont listen to a word he says.
The Times has a constitutional arrangement designed to prevent his influence, I believe that non of the past editors claimed he tried to change their editorial position.
Dublin South
Yes 62.88%
No 37.12%
one for the YES side
224 - I agree MacKenzie is a crazy candidate to put up if the Sun is serious about making a contest of it. He is a little known and rather dislikable media man with no special insight into security questions. They should either go for a very credible ex-copper (Ray Mallon or the like) or play it for laughs with a girl with massive knockers (”It’s double D versus double D!”, “What a tit!” etc sort of nonsense).
Dublin South
Yes 62.88%
No 37.12%
229 - Places like Anlaby, Cottingham etc. are very different to Hull, Hessle less so, I don’t think they see themselves as part of Hull at all. I’ve been to Howden and it seemed a sleepy little place.
237. Didn’t Harold Evans (I know it was The Sunday Times) resign because of Murdoch’s interference?
238- Whoops! Sorry.
Kildare North & Kildare South have narrowly voted Yes
Clare
Yes 51.84%
No 48.16%
Contrary to what Mike S said yesterday, the site has not shown itself to be required reading in times of great political excitement. Its very popularity has consumed it and the effort required to scroll past the voxpops, seants, GINs and casino royales to find worthwhile comments is now just too great.
can those running the site and those who contribute so well put their heads together and find a way to moderate comments to preserve the quality of such a valuable site?
[237] - “no control” ? He might not stand over their shoulders and dictate to them, but given that he appoints the editors in the first place, he can exercise a lot of influence by choosing people who share his political views.
It’s bad luck for that bloke in Sunday Mail who goes on about gays etc all the time - He was beaten to K & C by Portillo and has been heavily against the tories ever since. What’s his name, if he had worked for rupurt Murdoch he might have been taken seriously.
If McKenzie stands then Pascoe-Watson will be looking for a new job the day after the election. How can you tie a business to the idiotic rantings of McKenzie and Pascoe-Watson. Murdoch is not an idiot.
245. No wonder you are for an authoritarian state! What ever happened to free speech or free posting?
224 Ray Mallon wouldn’t stand on behalf of Labour though I’m sure Ian Blair could be pressganged into it.
211 “I can’t help but have a lot of respect for him, despite the fact that he’s a Tory in favour of the death penalty. If you’d asked me on Tuesday I’d have said that I’d rather chew my own leg off than vote Tory, but, honestly, it doesn’t seem so outrageous now.”
I find this comment very interesting, and I wonder how widespread such feeling is. Far from showing the divides in the Conservatives, this may be the final nail in the coffin of the Tories as the “nasty party” - they are taking a stand alongside such trendy groups as Liberty (I never thought I’d see that) against the establishment, and that might just open up a whole new block of voters to be sympathetic to them - the very same kind of people who have hated them for the last 25 years or more.
62 SeanT
I agree with you entirely. But I have to say that from my left-wing perspective it was Hilda who took the powers of the state to new levels by her dramatic interfering with education [so-called] reform and her attacks on local democracy.
The b’stards Blair and Brown took it to new levels and thus for the last 29 years [except for a period under Major] we have been living in a country where government always knows best.
The people are considered a nuisance except for the giving up of parliamentay majorities; the same has been happening in the US and Russia. Many Britons can’t stand the French but at least they are prepared to take action; and now so have the Irish.
Power is only on loan to government; the long-suffering British need to rise just a little and snap back at our woeful professional politicos.
Nice to agree with you
Malcolm
235. As I said before, to be fair, I think Brown has to say “we will press on” - for now. You can’t immediately pull the plug - not very “communautaire”.
Whether he will press on, I dunno. He has a chance to get the Europe issue off his back, by not ratifying in some fudgy way - kicking it over until the next election and promising a referendum on a third Treaty, whatever.
But will he? He’s such an idiot. Who knows.
250. I am sure Bin Laden is the perfect advocate for the governments policies, after all his like are the winners.
245 What are you frightened of Jonathan? Are things not going to your liking?
248: McKenzie is one of those people who thinks their opinions are far more popular, and important than they actually are.
Did not the Rothermeres try this in the 1920’s or 1930’s against someone who did the same
You are thinking of the ‘New Party’, I think, which funnily enough morphed into Mosley’s blackshirts. The comparison does seem very apt.
Could be the most interesting by-election since Paddington South, 1930
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paddington_South#1930
224 - Did not the Rothermeres try this in the 1920’s or 1930’s against someone who did the same. IIRC correctly the politician was relected and it was seen as a humilation for the newspaper editors.
Not exactly. The Empire Free Traders did win Paddington South in 1930, after a prolonged and complicated wrangle within the Conservative party over whether the official candidate should endorse their plans, and allowed Labour into Islington East by splitting to Tory vote. This made Baldwin’s leadership position more insecure than at any other time.
However, he did recover brilliantly with his famous “power without responsibility - the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages” (ghostwritten by cousin Rudyard) during the Westminster, St. George’s campaign, which allowed Alfred Duff Cooper to beat the ETC-supported candidate. In any event, after the 1931, the National Government managed to shift towards the ETC position. Lord Rothermere also sponsored the Anti-Waste League under LG’s coalition, determined to shift the party to the right. This grouping did manage to win the Hertford bye.
** SPOOF POSTER ALERT **
Just want to point out that the post at 245 has absolutely nothing to do with me. PB.com is reqd reading and I find my politcal opponents posts very entertaining!!
Can we send the usual warning!
Howden is a safe Con seat - that’s how similar it is to Hull.
sure Ian Blair could be pressganged into it.
Oh please, please…(!)
250 - He doesn’t need to stand for Labour. Labour won’t stand. The only question is whether there is a meaningful independent with News Corp support.
Has Brown definitely confirmed that he won’t be putting up a Labour candidate and has McKenzie definitely confirmed that he will stand?
There seems to be a lot of confusion around, which is typical of everything to do with Gormless Gordon.
128. Yes. I have noticed a change in the BNP position in the last year or so, even their activists on blogs have started to come out strongly against the surveillance society, against the scapegoating of children, against the DNA database (cue easy joke about most of their Councillors being on it), and specifically the misuse of terrorist legislation, and petty bureaucracy against the indigenous working classes.
Have no worry, the BNP would quite happily shove every follower of islam off the white cliffs of dover, without blinking, but they have began to reassert their nationalism through the prism of freedoms, ie Magna Carta and so on.
An interesting development which seems to have gone unnoticed elsewhere, i am not sure if it is a change coming from the grass roots rather then the leadership, but it is there.
If the Sun puts up MacKenzie as a pro-42 day candidate and there is no Labour candidate, he will be seen to be a surrogate for a cowardly Brown who dare not defend his policies with the electorate.
As MacKenzie is a close as you can get to the archetypical extreme right winger of the Labour pantheon of horrors, then the Labour party is going to be tarred with a very dirty brush.
His brief spell on the sofa of ‘This Week’ last night must have given Labour party managers the jibbers as in one sentence seemed to be supporting 42 days while going for the shoot-em-flog-em-sod-em fringe party leadership.
At this moment they are reviewing that appearance and another not so long ago on ‘Question Time’.
This song says it all:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyXdHHZZkl4
And of course what he has done for Scotland he has now done for Hull.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1565931/Outrage-over-Kelvin-MacKenzie’s-Scottish-slurs.html
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/06/kelvin-mackenzie-gaffe-hull-is-absolute.html
Still there is something oddly satisfying in a Sun motormouth numpty standing in for the Brown Imperium.
245 Jonathan, some might argue that your posts should be properly disposed of as hazardous or toxic waste.
But, I am not authoritarian, and I say that you are free to post your garbage here.
In fact, we all enjoyed seeing your ridiculous posts repeatedly skewered by the razor-sharp ukpaul last night.
Dublin North
Yes 50.56%
No 49.44%
Wexford
Yes 43.96%
No 56.04%
265: The BNP always do this, though: they jump on any bandwagon going if it can get them a few extra votes.
249. Ah, the eternal voice of the censor. Ban them, moderate them, exclude them, i.e. I don’t like what they are saying.
Now why would you be in such a petulant mood? Europe?
Get a grip, old chap.
267 Jonathan, I gather 245 was not really you, so I am certainly happy to withdraw any charge of authorarianism.
266. shoot-em-flog-em-sod-em
’sod-em’? Shurely shome mishtake
267,270 The post at 245 has nothing to do with me, it is a spoof poster. I really value the broad debate. Someone is just trying to get me in trouble.
Ed, if your out there, can you check emails and send out the usual notice about spoof posts.
In the meantime this is all very flattering, I have a doppenganger.
Cavan-Monaghan
Yes 45.2%
No 54.8%
Apparently the BBC are reporting that McKenzie once sais ‘Oh have you ever been to Hull, its a shocker’.
The BBC v Murdoch.
This whole thing is turning into a ‘Chirac’ moment: who do you hate more?
Doppelgänger
Er, that last post was for Jonathan at 245. But it turns out that it wasn’t him anyway.
Very confusing. All this excitement is too much!
I need a nice chicken panang.
269, i would rather their core beliefs aligned themselves with ancient british principles of freedom, rather then early 20th century european principles of euthanising gypsies jews and trade unionists..
OT I see Iain Dale http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/ is going to become Mrs Dale! Presumably to help with marketing of the Diary
277 You’re not the only one. Perhaps we need ID cards here. Ahem Just kidding
Congrats Sean, BTW on the Europe vote, you must wash down your chicken with a Guinness.
New Rasmussen poll for Minnesota :
McCain 39% .. Obama 52%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election
265. Well presumably even the dullards in the BNP can see that while Labour would like people to believe all these extra powers will be used only against err ‘foreign-looking’ persons, the reality will be that they will be used against everybody.
Grotesque that Labour should try to get through such an oppressive measure by appealing to the basest racist instincts of the public. Hilarious that they have failed even to take the BNP with them.
Cork North Central
Yes 35.6%
No 64.4%
264 “Has Brown definitely confirmed that he won’t be putting up a Labour candidate ”
You expect a quick decision from Gordon? Bound to be “No” as
“Gordon does not do elections”
277 You must be within 100m of an Irish pub. Everyone is.
[264] - No, and no. McKenzie seems to be saying that he will stand if Labour don’t, so it is still for Labour to decide. Labour have indicated that they are going to wait for Davis to formally go through with the technicalities of resigning before making a final decision. (So.. Monday? Tuesday?)
There is live coverage of the Irish Referendum here
http://www.rte.ie/live/index.html
God bless the Irish.
279 - Being pedantic wouldn’t it be someone else becoming ‘Mrs’ Dale.
Matt @ 228 I am inclined to agree with you. If DD wants to let his hair down, better do it now whilst we are ahead in the polls, he is not a Home Sec and when we want Brown to stay in place.
Louth
Yes 41.9%
No 58.1%
288 LOL
286 Thanks for that info.
288, OT: what’s the verb for a civil union? Becoming civilised? Unionised?:p
Also, what do they say instead of ‘man and wife’?
Dublin West
Yes 47.9%
No 52.1%
Roscommon-South Leitrim
Yes 45.6%
No 54.4%
293 - Well there is no prescribed ceremonial form, if you want you just pitch up sign the form and go to the pub.
Good Luck Mrs Dale.
See you Tories, the Labour govt isn’t all bad!
285. Nah, but my curry has just arrived!
BTW I’m glad it wasn’t you getting all weirdy on us. You’ve always seemed one of the more reasonable of pb lefties (who are obviously all nasty wart-faced sickos etc etc continued page 674)
Off for my curry now. Will be back to gloat some more about Lisbon later.
I can’t wait for a contest.
It will be a top class political street fight to the death between Dave the Brave in the blue corner, standing up for the man in the street; and Loudmouth ‘Mac’ Mackenzie standing up for Gormless Gordon ‘Bottler’ Brown and his Labour Party stooges.
I think The Sun may find themselves about as welcome in East Yorkshire as they are in Liverpool if they are stupid enough to back Mackenzie.
296 - Isn’t that the case with a normal register office marriage anyway?
Limerick East
Yes 46.0%
No 54.0%
Dublin Mid West
Yes 39.6%
No 60.4%
[19 of 43 Constituencies]
Yes 45.3 (326,567)
No 54.7 (394,641)
When is the Brown press conference announcing that the Treaty is dead? Come on Gordon show some leadership. Cameron needs to nail Brown down about this ASAP.
The country will rejoice when the PM is forced to admit that his duplicity over the Lisbon treaty has been to no avail.
Guardian website now reporting that Shell tanker drivers plan a second wave of strikes “next week”, after the current strike ends on Tuesday morning. The headaches just pile up for Brown.
300 - Quite possibly, I’ve never had cause to look into it in any significant depth.
Donegal NE 64.7 no 35.3 yes
Donegal North East
Yes 35.3%
No 64.7%
It’s magnificent news.
Now watch the bastards completely ignore the vote.
293 - The term “married” is normally used much to the annoyance of religious types. It is not in the legislation but of course people use it. The standard registry office wording instead of “I now pronounce you husband and wife” is “[you] are now legally partners for life” - rather an ugly form of words I think but there it is.
I think we can now have our chorus of ‘Ding dong, the text is dead’
[303] - Four days, Friday-Monday again. Three-day week?
Kildare North
Yes 54.6%
No 45.4%
308, you’re right, it is bloody ugly.
If I were to become civilly unified I’d write something better than that for him to say.
310, don’t panic, the pound in your pocket etc etc
Dun Laoghaire
Yes 63.5%
No 36.5%
221 Even if some of the old guard Tories like the idea of 42 days, they hate the Murdoch press.
[312] - The pound in your pocket… is being donated to David Davis?
re 208 Treasury website still not reporting it.
312 - It is difficult though to come up with something that doesn’t sound silly. Man and husband? Husband and husband? Woman and wife? Wife and wife? All sounds a bit silly. But then just walking into a room scribbling a signature on a bit of paper and then going to a local ’spoons for 2 meals for a fiver seems somewhat unromantic.
re 210 the bill is still going through the House of Lords I believe. A vote there could kill it off.
229 - ukpaul is pretty much right. If you look at it from above, Hessle, Cottingham, Anlaby, Willerby, Kirk Ella et al are just continuations of the sprawl of Hull, but they’re different places. Cottingham, which is very close to where I live, is certainly different.
H&H, while neighbouring me in Hull North, is quite dissimilar.
22 of 42 Constituencies
Yes 46.5% (387,142)
No 53.5% (445,947)
re 245 Jonathan that’s rich. You diasgree with the site’s owner and then ask him to do something that’s more appealing to your taste. You really know how to win friends and influence people!
321, that was an evil impersonator.
re 264 voxpop - why should Brown say anything at the moment - there isn’t even a vacancy yet?
321. Psst… it wasn’t Jonathan - he’s been identity thieved!
312 - I agree - the word “legally” is particularly jarring as there is very little romance in the law and it sound like “well done, you have successfully reached the end of negotiating a rather tricky set of contractual arrangements”.
321 - As noted several times above, 245 was somebody stealing Jonathan’s name.
321 It wasn’t me, it was a spoof poster (see posts 273,260)
Ed,
Just a thought… Perhaps it’s time to make people register on pb.com to make posts. It’s hardly a draconian requirement, you ask for a name and email address already. But it might be a good idea to protect peoples unique names.
Currently, it wouldn’t be hard to get someone in trouble on here, whilst their taking a break from the screen. I was lucky to catch this one. I hate to think how many others there could be.
For someone in public life like Marcus or Nick, this could easy be damaging. You know how the papers pick stuff up from here.
Heseltine pooh-poohing Davis on Sky now
Can someone give me the current befair prices on the irish referendum?
I cannot believe that Brown could consider hiding behind Murdoch and a repulsive bovine oaf like Kelvin MacKenzie. It would place him beneath contempt.
Afternoon all
Re: 81 & others - Always willing to discuss history on here - makes a change from some of the ranting. I was trying to argue that the common view of the origin of Magna Carta is misguided though I concede its value as a source for later documents - to be fair, Iceland had established a Prliament in 930AD so we were behind.
Civil War - I think you have to look at the whole period from 1629-89 as the era which saw the end of royal power and the emergence of the modern legislature and Executive. Of course, the post-1649 Puritans weren’t a good example but nor was the so-called “Glorious Revolution” much more than a coup against James II.
Re: Ireland - I’m very pleased with the referendum result. It will kill the issue for some time. MY view (and I’ve stated this on here before) is that Nick Clegg was wrong not to have backed a referendum. The “it was in the manifesto” is a bit of a red herring but the substantive is that we should have had a say on Lisbon as we should have on Maastricht.
Re: Davis - His selective memory is wonderful and undermines his credibility with every sentence. He rightly reviles Labour for their tactics on Wednesday (did the Tories court the DUP and fail ?) but forgets how the Conservative Whips behaved during the passage of the Maastricht Treaty after the 1992 GE and during a number of close votes in the 1992-97 Parliament when they were often forced to rely on Ulster Unionist votes.
It’s shoddy and unsavoury but it happens. I begin to think Davis believes he should have won the vote on Wednesday. Perhaps the Tories tried to court the DUP and failed - Labour clearly succeeded. I suspect Davis is crying foul at the way Labour did this and this is his response.
Final thought - had the majority been one rather than nine, what would the pb.com Tory activists be saying today about Miss Anne Widdecombe ?
Donegal South-West
No 63.45%
Yes 36.55%
@325:
As if. The tricky contractual arrangements are only beginning at that point.
329 - He is already beneath contempt for a lot of people.
Those who are suggesting the H&H by-election will cost the taxpayer money… DD’s salary for 4 weeks, plus no pay for his staff, no second home payments and no expenses for 4 weeks, probably amounts to a saving of £12,000 to £15,000. A simple by-election like this would probably cost about £25,000 to £30,000, so the Commons authorities should pass on the savings to DD’s local council to defray the costs. Plus, the local economy will receive a boost; all the local printers who gain surprise business, local hostelries and inns who gain from putting up tired and emotional hacks, local newsagents who have to order in more Mars Bars for party activists, local hairdressers who have to work on DC’s changing parting during the campaign.
307 They already have. Most of its been enacted in directives.
Meath East
Yes 50.94%
No 49.06%
Wicklow
Yes 49.81%
No 50.19%
“267 Jonathan, I gather 245 was not really you, so I am certainly happy to withdraw any charge of authorarianism.”
As long as you don’t withdraw your assertion that I was ‘razor sharp’.
296 - Not sure that’s right. I believe there is a minimum form ceremony and two witnesses are required in addition to the bride and groom. You need to make the verbal declaration in front to the witnesses addition to signing forms.
271 not 267…
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 49%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Results Received: 26 of 43
Yes 46.44% (462,704)
No 53.56% (533,605)
Cork South-Central
Yes 44.87%
N0 55.13%
337 No problem. BTW Sounds like you have a fan out there! The rest of us have long taken for granted that you’re cutting edge.
Limerick West
Yes 44.65%
No 55.35%
265,269 I think it’s down to the fact that they can attract an audience on the net that they couldn’t get through the mainstream media (I believe the BNP website is the most popular party website). But, in turn, that means they have to tailor their appeal to people who surf the net, who tend to be civil libertarians.
So, while hard core national socialism is plainly anti-civil liberties, more modern white nationalism isn’t (unless you’re not white).
Results Received: 28 of 43
Yes 46.45% (489,492)
No 53.55% (564,424)
327. Not surprised. They have never got on owing to;
1. Davis being passionatly anti-Europe.
2. Heseltine now being the very embodiment of the “establishment”
Heres a point for Labour to think about. Just suppose for a moment there is a huge split between Davis and Cameron here (I don’t believe for one minute there is any split on the substabtive issues, but lets for arguements sake say there is) you guys and your leader are constantly going on about how the Tories are obsessed with personalities and should start talking about policy. Well, heres your chance to actually have a debate that the whole country can get involved with, on a matter a extrmely important policy. Here is your chance to come out and defend what you have been doing in vast policy areas these last few years. To explain the surveilence society. To explain all the criminal justice bills and laws you’ve introduced. To explain the health and saftey culture and all the anti terror laws, too.
Why not come out and have that arguement? These issues are too important to duck, and a general election isn’t really the right forum, because as we know, the focus and narrative during a general election changes day by day and all areas of policy are discussed.
So, this seems to perfect moment to have a debate just on this area of policy. What are you afraid of? Don’t leave it to some bigoted right wing media hack to show you up, come out now and engage with people while you still can.
re 1 and 244 as the Craggy island praochial house is really in county Clare, and they seem to have been one of the few places to have voted yes, perhaps Mrs Doyle is a closet Europhile.
345 Sean I had a technical question upthread that was unanswered. If MacKennzie stands as the Sun’s candidate. Would the paper’s sales count towards electoral expenses and would it have to carry an imprint. Perhaps the spending limits would force the Sun off the paper stands for the campaign.
Kildare South
Yes 48.49%
No 51.51%
[Results Received: 29 of 43]
Yes 46.46% (508,220)
No 53.54% (585,654)
Pro-Smoking rebels join the H&H circus…
http://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/news_detail.aspx?articleid=62894
re 346 Jack’s ARSE has been very quiet on the Irish results - perhaps suffering from a touch of constipation.
Galway East
Yes 46.87%
No 53.13%
349 I’m afraid I don’t know (I’m more into election results, and electoral history rather than the minutiae of electoral law). Morus, Rod Crosby, Peter Golds, or Andrea would probably know.
349. Why should it? The press can support anyone they want. It’s not an election expense. It’s freedom of the press.
327. If that cynical old b*st*rd is against Davis, then Davis is most definitely right.
As an aside, I was amused by Boulton’s blog’s observation that “EU officials here in Brussels are devastated and angry: Ireland has benefited to the tune of billions of pounds from the EU”.
Oh, the outrage at the ingrates that won’t stay bribed. Ho ho.
Looks like a yes vote in only 6 - 8 constituencies and no everywhere else. Probably an overall result of 53 / 54 - 47 / 46 or so. Turnout and result between Nice 1 and 2. Another data point for ryans’ analysis with will increase the correlation factor for his turnout / no vote regression.
Now what will they do….?
Does anyone know if the Treaty can go ahead without the Irish. As I understood it ratification by all EU members was required for it to come into effect. Would the lack of Irish ratification invalidate the UK ratification process. Ie. parliament ratified the EU treaty on the understanding it would only be brought into effect if it was ratified by all members this not being the case surely the UK parliament’s bill on ratification is null and void and if Brown wants to go ahead anyway shouldn’t he have to go back to square one and bring it back before the House of Commons.
Longford-Westmeath
Yes 46.26%
No 53.74%
Neil
Might it be closer than that? Offaly still to come plus some dublin seats?
355. OK, but… wouldn’t it be nice if, since KM has come out and stated that he’s running on behalf of the Sun, funding limits (including in those the printing of that rag since it could be classed as an electoral pamphlet) were imposed since the Sun is acting as a de facto party?
Bet that’d piss Murdoch off.
349. It is probably a judgement call and one which may have to be decided in court if necessary.
As Rod says, newpapers are free to endorse who they want. On the other hand, there are constituency spending limits, and if McKenzie is standing on behalf of The Sun (as is already on the record), then if The Sun starts putting out ‘H&H constituency specials’, not generally available elsewhere, and designed to promote their candidate, I can’t see how they could be excluded from election costs.
359 - Surely Parliament is sovereign and ratifies a treaty or not regardless of what other member states do. The fudge the EU / Ireland agree to does not impact on the UK (unless said fudge changes the treaty which it wont). Cant see that kind of impact on the UK. (Not that there may not be other impacts.)
354 Thanks for considering it.
355 Sure the press can support who they want. But if there is an offical Sun candidate (as MacKenzie claims he will be), doesn’t the paper become indistinguishable from an election leaflet. If so, should it not bear an imprint and the costs count as an election expense?
I have no axe to grind, this is a genuine question. Interesting times we live in now we have our very own potential Berlusconi. Does the UK law protect us from media moguls (or there associates) creating parties and running for office?
Like I say, a genuine question. What does the law say?
there=their sorry
Jonathan - I have looked into the person who is also posting under your name - not a case of impersonation, he is a genuine poster whose name is also Jonathan.
I will e-mail him, and ask if he would mind changing his moniker when posting to avoid confusion.
We have taken some measures against impersonation - any new combination of name and e-mail address needs confirmation by an editor, so someone couldn’t post as ‘Morus’ without knowing the e-mail address that I use for posting here. This issue arose because there is no requirement that your name alone is unique, and in this case there was a genuine but infrequent poster who had already been approved with your name.
Hope that clears up the problem - apologies for any confusion caused.
Cheers
Morus
361 - Maybe a little closer - Laois Offaly and Dublin South East at least to add to the yes column and maybe Carlow / Kilkenny and Meath West too (they must be close-ish). But 3 Cork constituencies and Galway West and 5 Dublin constituencies to add to no. Might bring it slightly closer than it currently stands overall but only marginally so.
Reports that Carlow Kilkenny has gone No by 4 votes! (The electorate is 103,397)
Ed Davey on Sky says Davis is about divisions in the Tory leadership over 42-days…
If Kelvin M doesn’t stand, probably no by-election: DD re-elected unopposed.
So Kelvin M is the one causing £80,000 of costs to be incurred. All for HIS little ego trip.
Make The Sun pay.
357. The threats will start soon enough. This will be very unpleasant - the Irish will be told to toe the line or get booted out.
369 - “Reports that Carlow Kilkenny has gone No by 4 votes!”
That’s exactly what I meant by close-ish
364 There are aspects of it that presumably can’t come into force without Irish approval, such as the changes to the number of EU Commissioners and MEPs, by country. I’m not sure that the Charter of Rights is effective if one country fails to ratify the Treaty, though Parliament could always pass legislation explicity implementing it, I suppose.
@370:
Ed Davey is a gaping twart.
[Results Received: 32 of 43]
Yes 46.59% (573,444)
No 53.41% (657,373)
370. Lib Dem divisions surfacing rapidly. How do the Lib Dem blogs look today?
I’ve noticed a remarkable silence from a number of our most vocal Lib Dem contributors today - are they all seething away in Worthing etc., furious at Clegg’s denying them of a chance to get a 3rd class ticket to Yorkshire to shove dayglo leaflets through people’s doors?
367 Thanks! I am glad there is no ill will here. Yet another gotchya in the new world of online identity. Maybe we’ll be twins at the BBQ?
364. But the fact it had to be ratified by all memebrs was inherent within the treaty, so the treaty which the UK MPs voted for is now null and void and as the EU treaty would have to be modified, become a new treaty if it is to be brought into effect, a treaty UK MPs haven’t voted on.
Carlow Kilkenny and Laois Offaly are (were!) the biggest seats outstanding.
Looks like 52-48 to me.
Galway West
Yes 46.05%
No 53.95%
Carlow-Kilkenny
Yes 50%
No 50%
(!!!!!)
@379:
Not necessarily. The EU can negotiate an Ireland-only annexe of opt-outs and sundry amendments to buy enough voters to narrowly win the second referendum.
Worked for Nice.
365. No. McKenzie will have his official election leaflets, and the freedom of the press to support him… (or not)
365 - The Sun is not a registered political party. Unless they were to register with the electoral commission KM could not stand as an official Sun candidate. He would be an independent.
Carlow-Kilkenny
Yes: 26,210
No: 26,206
379 - You’re getting a little ahead of events there though. It hasnt been not ratified yet. There is still time. Past experience (Denmark over Maastricht and Ireland over Nice) shows us that EUrocrats get around these things. The most likely way is to make an accomodation for Ireland outside of the Treaty (as was done before) so no impact in UK. I cant see it having that legal effect on the UK though it may have a political one.
Another alternative is for the EU to give it up as dead.
Who knows what they will do right now!
383 Thanks. So if I was a candidate in an election, all I need to do is to get some mate of mine to start a free paper and they can shove it through people’s doors day after day with no regard to electoral law in the name of the free press.
Genius.
The Irish Independence streak should not be underestimated.
As the Irish PM says, only a madman would try to read the European Constitution Contract.
Only a madman would sign a 500 page contract they haven’t read.
Neil,
not sure where you get your turnout numbers from but at the moment the turnout in the constituencies that have declared is higher than Nice III in all but 3 where it is only marginally below. Turnout is averaging around 51% with the lowest at 45.7 in Donegal NE and the highest at 60.8% in Wicklow.
By comparison the turnout in Nice 1 was 35% and in Nice 2 was 49.5%
Overall if these figures continue I would expect turnout to be around 54% - considerably higher than Nice 2.
Dublin South-Central
Yes 39.04%
No 60.96%
[Results Received: 34 of 43]
Yes 46.29% (602,182)
No 53.71% (698,813)
377 - In what way is that a division in the Lib Dems? The agenda for Davis is to ensure his party does not backslide on 42 days and other “liberal” issues. That’s an agenda the Lib Dems support so they are standing aside for Davis in the by-election. I don’t sense any grassroots frustration or annoyance at Clegg’s line on this, and Davey’s comment is completely in line with the position.
That should have said Nice II of course not Nice III. The EU probably had that one planned but never needed it.
379. Legalistically, I think you’re right.
Unanimous ratification is in the DNA of the Treaty - therefore forcing it through without the Irish would make it, ipso facto, a different Treaty. No?
That implies a whole new round of ratification for the UK parliament. Or, if the Tories are in power (as they probably will be by then?) a referendum. Any attempt to force a different Treaty through the UK without parliament or the people having a say would be challenged in the UK courts, by eurosceptics.
And I suspect the sceptics would win that.
Not a good day for europhiles.
386 I was in the European Parliament last week and heard both the “drop-it” and “vote again” options being canvassed. Argualby Parliament has most to gain from the Treaty. But it will be up to Sarko to propose a way forward.
Dublin Central
Yes 43.8%
No 56.2%
378 - No worries - always best to flag it, just in case. Mike takes impersonation very seriously. Sorry it took me a little while to get back to you.
380 - Dublin South-Central, Cork East and Galway West are large constituencies all likely to vote no but those two are the biggest left all right (taking the boundary commission a while to sort out new seats and those two are likely to be redrawn). Havent bothered doing the maths though as whether no vote is 52, 53 or 54 it all means the same thing!
NUlabour, UKIP, the DUP, the Sun and Rupert Murdoch all united. I feel like Guy Crouchback:
‘The enemy at last was plain in view, huge and hateful, all disguise cast off. It was the Modern Age in arms.’
393. Yes the Lib Dems must be particularly annoyed that the ‘Irish have not been defeated’
377 - Mark Senior posted yesterday that he believes Clegg was justified in saying the LDs would not contest the by-election.
387 - You’d need to be careful. If he started a commercial freesheet with advertising etc which also happened to have a strong editorial line in your favour, you couldn’t be touched. But if it plainly wasn’t a commercial venture and you were either slipping him a few quid on the side or encouraging others to do so, those payments should be accounted for in election expenses.
It is inevitably a tricky area but it is unclear how the law could be improved short of placing editorial controls on newspapers (very dodgy).
388 - “As the Irish PM says, only a madman would try to read the European Constitution Contract.
Only a madman would sign a 500 page contract they haven’t read.”
It was the Irish EU commissioner that said that. And it’s a very weak line of attack against a yes vote. But probably the strongest one the no campaign had. Go back to the last thread and look at Ganley’s wishlist for a reformed treaty - an automatic commissioner and increased voting strength in Council of Ministers. So if we get them he’d vote yes. You agree with either of those? Think they are the basis of principled opposition to the European project? Dont confuse Irish reasons for voting no with British ones. We passed Maastricht and signed up to the euro remember.
394. A lady Irish senator (rather cute) just on BBC was saying - “there is no way we can present this again in a referendum. We would get an even worse result”.
Pretty unequivocal. This situation feels different to Nice. Given the previous rejections by France and Holland, and the whole “shove it through” nastiness that has been revealed already - I don’t think they can try again. No Irish politician would dare try it.
They are f***ed in Brussels. For now, anyway.
Just read this on openeurope’s liveblog (from Neil O’brien maybe?):
“Meanwhile, have just done an interview with former Europe Minister Denis MacShane on the Simon Mayo show on Radio Five Live. He is literally shaking with rage and storms out of the studio before the end of the interview”
I wonder when the political class will work out that doing what Murdoch wants is not usualy what is best for the country.
404. Perhaps when they stop taking his money.
403- Given what he said on the Daily Politics a couple of days ago, good.
Thread question at top….
Answer - Yes, as I’ve been trying to tell this site for around two weeks.
Shocking how Paddy Power was acting as part of the hoodwink that YES were going to win. Think of all the money you betters should have made on this, but Smithson got it wrong, wrong, wrong. Only unofficial sources gave a true reading as all officical sources of the kind Mike uses in the UK were lying through their teeth - political parties, polls, betting odds, forecasts etc etc etc.
Dublin South-East
Yes 61.65%
No 38.35%
[Results Received: 35 of 43]
Yes 46.61% (619,293)
No 53.39% (709,457)
403 You have to ask why these Eurocrats want the Constitution so badly - so badly they are willing to bypass democractic process. What is in it for them?
The people dont want it. So what have the Eurocrats been promised?
401 It’s an interesting one though isn’t it.
393 It might actually be quite a good day for europhiles in the long run. We need to put an end to this silly way of doing things.
It would a good thing if in future they tried a radically different, simpler, less ambitious document. Something that you didn’t need a degree in Eurobollocks to understand.
Also, why not open it up to a single Europe wide referendum? We all ratify on one day, one man one vote, and you need a majority across Europe as a whole.
Come on Gordon
Come out and tell us the Treaty is dead . We need to know, surely you are not thinking of pushing it through still?
Oh and are you going to fight your corner against Davis?
407 It is in the interests of many groups to give a false picture. In betting, this would affect betting prices.
393 - Under Article 357, the Treaty does not enter into force at all (in any country) until the last of the signatories deposits their instrument of ratification. The countries that haven’t done so can still go ahead and do it, Ireland notwithstanding, but it simply won’t come into force anywhere in Europe without Irish ratification.
There seems to be a view in the media that the reason the Irish voted No is because they couldn’t understand it. (i.e “they are too thick so they shouldn’t be allowed to vote”) Given that this treaty combined with the older treaties equal the EU Constitution then this is really a major failure by the politicians.
If proposition is so poorly presented that almost all the people (including many with legal training) can’t understand from the documents
who is to make the decisions and how?
who selects the decision makers?
and how can they be got rid of if the people do not like the outcomes?
then to politicians deserve to be told to go back and think again.
377, 390. Mark Senior backed Clegg last night and is presumably working today. Ukpaul, SBS and I have been on the site most of the day backing Clegg’s line, whilst Yellow Submarine has other opinions. In fact I think the proportion of posts from declared Lib Dems has risen noticeably since the Davis story broke.
410 You really dont get it do you? A Euro-wide referendum means alowing the Germand and the Brits a say. Certain defeat.
407 - Get a bit of a grip there. Noone had much of a clue what the result was going to be. Obviously the polls indicated no but we didnt know how much they could be trusted. A good friend of mine in the no campaign has been quietly confident for the last while but even he was completely unable to call it with any certainty. There have been no “lies” about it. And I didnt see you complaining when Paddy Power paid out on Bertie Ahern for Taoiseach bets before the counting started after the GE last year - it’s what they do for PR. They sometimes get it wrong.
415 Also Tabman, James, Jon and myself.
Forgive my pathetic attempt at Poetry, but I feel that today’s events deserve something in the true Irish vernacular. No doubt someone will come up with a better effort.
There once was a Treaty of Lisbon
(Constitution really - with knobs on)
But the Irish said “NO”
We won’t give it a go
Though the bookies said “YES” was an odds-on!
[409] - It’s simply what they live for. They’ve become drawn into this cycle of another treaty, and then another one, and they must feel that if they ever stop it will all fall apart.
414 - “There seems to be a view in the media that the reason the Irish voted No is because they couldn’t understand it.”
That’s what the Irish people have been telling the pollsters when asked. In all honesty this treaty should not have been put to the Irish people. I’m glad they voted no but it’s a farce to put something like this to a referendum. The position is different in the UK because you people didnt get to vote on SEA, Maastricht, Amsterdam or Nice. I think it’s clear you guys need another vote. But on the whole shebang, not the insignificance that is Lisbon.
407, don’t forget those 12 foot green lizards…
402. Why don’t europhiles just accept they have reached the outer limits of what the public will accept in terms of European integration? At least for the medium term? At least in certain countries?
That would save them a lot of grief. Then we can have a New Convention, of the people, and fashion a properly democratic Europe, subordinate to the nation states.
And those countries that want to forge ahead, to create some Federal Soviet - let them do so.
403. What did he say?
Dublin North-East
Yes 43.22%
No 56.78%
[Results Received: 37 of 43]
Yes 46.34% (641,786)
No 53.66% (743,179)
Unfortunately for the Europhiles the Treaty is dead unless ratified by all members.
Article 6 of the Treaty itself states:
1. This Treaty shall be ratified by the High Contracting Parties in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements. The instruments of ratification shall be deposited with the Government of the Italian Republic.
2. This Treaty shall enter into force on 1 January 2009, provided that all the instruments of ratification have been deposited, or, failing that, on the first day of the month following the deposit of the instrument of ratification by the last signatory State to take this step.
Now the basic position is that if Ireland do not ratify then under the tersm of the treaty it cannot come into force. At the same time if they try and amend the treaty to remove this clause and so bypass the Irish result then the treaty has been changed and must be re-ratified by all the member states.
Dublin North-West
Yes 36.38%
No 63.62%
EU tell us it is for free trade, free movement for people & labour.
But Pakistanis, Africans and Kurds have no trouble living in Europe. Japanese have no trouble selling cars in Europe. Chinese have no problems selling TVs in Europe.
If fact, Britain is selling less in Europe than before. Despite any tarifs imposed on non-EU countries, the costs of producing in Europe (minimum wages, taxes, health & safety, so called equality) are higher.
Me? Me quite Europhile - but who wants to live in the EUSSR..
349
This is from many moons ago, but didn’t the Sun run a candidate against Tony Benn when he first stood in the Chesterfield by-election to get back in Parliament ?
419. Not pathetic at all - rather creditable!
Hooray for Irrrrrreland.
The British would never accept being tied to the result of an EU wide referendum. Since the results would have to be announced on a country by country basis, the fact that the UK had voted against (as I am sure they would) would be known and if the result went the other way there would be uproar.
Any British government agreeing to that would be dead.
430 It is pure fantasy to believe that any such referendum would be accepted by European Council.
People on RTE Radio sound just a little bit pissed.
As a matter of historical interest, wasn’t Dublin South the only constituency outside Ulster (apart from Trinity University) that used to return Unionists, prior to independence? Does it have much of a Protestant population left, and do Protestants favour EU integration?
426. Dublin seems deeply divided…is this a class thing?
431
I think thats what I said
434- No idea, I’m an Englishman living in London
428. I think they backed Bill “Selwyn Froggitt” Maynard as independent Labour candidate.
At Newham NE in 1994 the Daily Sport ran a slut under the label “Buy the Daily Sport.” She got 155 votes.
432
good
434 - Most definitely a class thing. The Dublin South / South-East / Dun Laoghaire axis is very wealthy and very yes-inlined. Interestingly all the Dublin constituencies voting yes have a Green party TD (often another proxy for a certain type of voter).
418. Yes, sorry, I was just recounting the Lib Dems who came immediately to mind.
I didn’t know James was a Lib Dem - glad to hear it.
And of course there’s Dan and James Schneider too, though I’m not sure that they’re here today.
434. 426
No. Its the River Liffey
Er Rod,
not sure that is the best way to describe the girl. I assume you base your view on the fact she took her clothes off but I think calling her a sluit is a bit out of order unless you actually dated her. And even then…
415 - I think Yellow Submarine did back Clegg but qualified that with saying that it was possibly better for Cameron in the long run. Dave (s) wants a contested by election which is a bit of a split but nothing dramatic. In fact, this has aroused me from a grudging support to a wholehearted support.
418 - And Cicero.
439 People from the “Dublin 4″ district of South East Dublin has a reputation similar to those of Islington..
433. Rathmines returned a unionist in 1918 along with the University. Only ones in the south, I think, though there were some decent second places in a couple of other constituencies.
433 - Back then it would have been Dublin Rathmines. Trinity College also returned Unionists but much less surprisingly
Dont think there’s much of a correlation between religion and voting besides any cross-correlation between religion and income which is then correlated with voting.
Meath West
Yes 44.48%
No 55.52%
[Results Received: 38 of 43]
Yes 46.30% (656,228)
No 53.70% (761,207)
[430] - Which is symptomatic of one of the problems the EU faces. There has been a complete failure to develop a Europe-wide polity. There’s no sense of Europe collectively taking a decision.
If we think back to the Welsh devolution referendum of 1997, that was passed by a narrow margin of 50.3% to 49.7%, I don’t recall any sense of the people of Cardiff (which voted against) feeling that they had been overruled by the people of Blaenau Gwent (which voted for).
All the politicians involved completely ignore this issue, and continue to present all European issues in terms of “getting the best deal for insert country from Europe”.
422. leprichauns?
The media in Ireland was rigged shamelessly to hide the strength of the NO campaign. There was much evidence of trouble coming over a month ago. See HERE.
David Eycke? Nowhere to be seen.
446 - Added to say I used to live in Dublin Rathmines / Dublin South for a year at uni. Still a higher protestant population than the rest of Dublin / the country I would have thought but changed utterly since 1918 (most of the the big houses turned into flatland for students in the meantime).
L-O is said to be 57-43 in favour of yes at present. So at least 53-47 overall.
425 Further to that point, much of the substance of the Lisbon Treaty is amendments to the previous Treaties (Nice - Commissioners, number of MEPs, form of majority voting, Maastricht - removing the three pillars principle for example) which is why it is hard to read and understand - same changes as Constitution but through multiple amendments to previous agreements.
So implementing any of those changes outside of Lisbon means amending the source Treaty - some of which were ratified through referendums. Cannot be forced through by majority voting as that doesn’t apply to the Treaties.
We (Lib Dems) would have been mad to fight the H & H election - Afraid Davis will look silly if he is only fighting a few fringe candidates or, which I can’t believe will happen, no one else stands. I don’t mind Conservatives looking silly (what else are they for?) but hope it doesn’t damage the case against 42 days.
Sorry to go off topic, but Colin Powell is considering voting for Obama. He says he will not vote on the issue of race, or purely because of McCain’s military record. He considers both to be qulified and is finding it difficult to choose.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080613.BCPOWELL13/TPStory/National
Hat-tip to Drudge
Polls showed only one person’s support helped any presidential candidate, that of Colin Powell.
“”Both of them certainly have the qualifications to be the president of the United States, but both of them cannot be,” he said.
Mr. Powell has been supportive of Mr. Obama’s successes, but was commenting after the senator recently clinched the Democratic nomination.
A 35-year veteran of the U.S. Army, Mr. Powell also noted he would not necessarily support Mr. McCain because of his extensive military service.
Asked whether he thought it was a difficult choice, he said: “I think so. Yes.”"
Not exactly a ringing endorsement for his fellow republican.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080613.BCPOWELL13/TPStory/National
Full story.
453. Icarus… how could we forget you?
442. I don’t date sluts…
454 - Damn, beaten by a minute.
449 - “The media in Ireland was rigged shamelessly to hide the strength of the NO campaign.”
Look, I agree that the Irish Times had its colours pinned to the mast on this and probably feels very let down by the Irish people right now. And RTE struggled to maintain an air of neutrality (look at the quotes I posted on the last thread). But rigged? Tinfoil hat time. The truth is more that there were no substantial arguments to be had and the media, full of people from Dublin South / South East / Dun Laoghaire, didnt know why people would consider voting no.
458 - Your loss possibly?
Hmmm David Davis story is now third behind the Irish Referendum & Tanker strikes on BBC News.
452 - “which is why it is hard to read and understand”
Well that and the lack of a consolidated text…
445/446/450 Thanks. When my mother was growing up in Dublin, she said Archbishop John McQuaid proclaimed that it was sinful for Catholics to attend Trinity, so I’m not surprised by the way it voted in 1918, either.
New thread now up.
Thanks
Double Carpet
448. Yes Timothy, but as everyone knows there is no possibility of developing a genuine European ‘demos’ - the barriers of language, culture, history are much too great.
What we have instead (re-)created is a European political elite, the most coherent such body since at least the early 19th century, and very possibly since the high middle ages. But these previous elites were swept away by the forces of national aspiration - as the current one will also be.
462 - And they have the rather ambiguous headline “Davis denies quitting ‘madness’”. Is he denying that he is now sane? Or is Suggs’ reunion tour back on or what?
[462] - Until Labour decide whether or not to stand it will probably stay there, and drift lower.
463 - there is a consolidated text.
467 - Maybe he’s going to rename the commons to the ‘House of Fun’?
410 - Jonathan:
“It might actually be quite a good day for europhiles in the long run. We need to put an end to this silly way of doing things.
It would a good thing if in future they tried a radically different, simpler, less ambitious document. Something that you didn’t need a degree in Eurobollocks to understand.
Also, why not open it up to a single Europe wide referendum? We all ratify on one day, one man one vote, and you need a majority across Europe as a whole.”
Well if all that happened, it would be a good day for Eurosceptics too. But what would we find to argue about then?
Pleased your impostor was someone different, by the way. It didn’t sound like real you.
448
That might work for continental Europe but the bottom line is that most people in Britain feel absolutely no affinity for the EU - even thoise that don’t want to leave. The idea that British politicians could ever persuade the public that they should feel part of some greater Europe is just wishful thinking.
More and more peopel are now acepting that in fact the opposite is true, that membership of the EU at all is a bad thing for Britain. Hence the recent poll results that show that, if forced into a choice, people would rather leave entirely.
440 - I’m here now!
My view is simple. Davis wanted his ego-trip (and to embarrass Cameron at the same time), but was too scared of losing. So the only way there could be a by-election was if the Lib Dems agreed not to oppose him on this issue.
It’s a shame, because Davis is no Liberal and his new found conversion to civil liberties is clearly part of his campaign to undermine the current leadership. Davis supported 28 days internment and his record on rights for gay people, for example, is dismal. There’s enough material on him to make a ‘proper’ by-election interesting.
Labour should fight this election and hard. They couldn’t fail to improve on their 12% in a two horse race and if they could get up to 30% or so then it would be seen as a big swing to the government and its tough stance on fighting terrorism and a severe embarrassment to an already fractious Tory party.
Well that’s my tuppence worth…
464 - Pope Benedict XV only allowed Catholics to participate in elections in the new Italian Republic in 1915. Prior to that, the Church prohibited voting in Italy.
466. Yes, but I’d prefer to compare the Eurocrats and their bag carriers with the medieval Catholic church. It’s not so much a common interest as a common creed, verging on faith (didn’t Barosso once describe being anti-EU as ‘heresy’, much to the annoyance of the real Catholic church?).
Meanwhile, keep scanning the horizon for Luther, with a fist full of Articles.
473 - Apparently he’s been strong on civil liberties for ages, for example he went ballistic at Howard for supporting ID cards. The only shame is that he didn’t make all of this clear earlier.
As for his views on other things, such as hanging, I don’t agree with him but if parties can’t band together with others on issues that matter to them then what’s the point?
475 Someone here put it well a few days ago when he said that each organisation believed it stood between Europe and barbarism, and that any means was justified to perpetuate its power.
What is sad for Christendom is that if the Catholic church had heeded the reformers, it would never have split.
473 - Well it’s a fair point that if Clegg had said he’d fight it hard and refuse to accept it was about 42 days, Davis wouldn’t have stood down. Otherwise, why would he have rung in advance? So the point about whether the Lib Dems “ought” to fight the by-election is in a sense moot - there would be no by-election had he chosen to fight it.