Oct 6th 2007: the moment it all went wrong
May 18th, 2008Given the dramatic changes we are seeing I thought it might be a good moment to look back to the first Saturday in October when Gordon recorded his famous interview with Andrew Marr. It was this, it will be recalled, that was Downing Street’s way of ending the speculation about an early November 2007 general election and followed a week when the Tories had begun to start their recovery in the polls.
Gordon looks a bit better in the recording compared with what we have seen in the past week. But the moment when it all falls down was when he dismissed the notion that it was the opinion polls that caused him to drop the early election plan.
This sounded so implausible and had echoes in the way he dealt with the 10% tax change moves during the week. Trying to deny something which appears to be so obviously the case just makes you look shifty.
In my betting I have now put more on the spreadbetting markets to become a £100 a seat seller of Labour. This is where you estimate the number of seats the parties will get at the election and then see them traded like stocks and shares. I’ve gone for a Labour sell rather than a Tory buy because I think there is more scope for movement.
Mike Smithson
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Just for Mark Senior this one. We know that Mark absolutely loves these tiny sub-samples, if they flatter the Lab Dims (otherwise of course then in Mark’s honest opinion they are utter tripe).
ComRes/Independent on Sunday
Scottish sub-sample size = 53
1. SNP 30% (+12%)
2. Lab 28% (-11%)
3. LD 19% (-4%)
4. Con 16% (n/c)
5. Grn 2% (+1%)
oth 6%
From which Electoral Calculus (Baxter) gives predicted Westminster seats in Scotland:
1. Labour 29 seats (-11 seats)
2. LD 14 seats (+3 seats)
3. SNP 13 seats (+7 seats)
4. Con 2 seats (+ 1 seat)
5. Speaker (Michael Martin) 1 seat (n/c)
Sell Labour seats at 234 would have seemed a crazily low price only a few weeks ago. Now it suddenly seems like value. I already have a good position on the Con seats market, having bought at around 320, but I’ve followed Mike and also sold Labour to have the same opinion over two bets. Hopefully the prices will continue to drift apart over the next few weeks - especially after Thursday…. Target price is Labour 200 and I might buy back to close for a profit, but leave the Cons buy position open until the election…
Getting on with the job..
Calling an election on competence..
We will win an election..
When you throw £5 billion at a problem and not show how you’ll fund it (but £2.7 billion is ok) is leads to economic disaray.
Setting out a vision (where?)
This man simply isn’t credible
Still seems pretty crazy to me but I must be in a small minority on this site.
Another thing to think about is the career hedgers who might come in if the Tory price gets high enough. If for example you were Nick’s opponent in Broxtowe you can be virtually certain to win at the current Tory level - so worth selling a few hundred. If the Tories do better happy days if not well at least you have something to console yourself with and you probably win anyway for the next 50 seats down.
Well getting interviewed by Marr certainly upset Boulton on Sky, he gets angrier, grumpier, and putting on weight, after each testy piece he does to camera, with goverment politicians.
Maybe the great Blairite decade of 97 to 07 is over for him to.
Wendy Alexander loses yet another spin doctor. I count that as at least 6 (Brian Lironi, Matthew Marr, Gavin Yates, Kerron Cross, Philip Chalmers, Mike Elrick) since she was annointed leader of the Scottish Labour Party last September.
Has any other senior politician in the UK such a poor record in terms of recruiting and retaining staff? How long before Simon Pia walks too?
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2279010.0.aide_walks_out_on_wendy_over_referendum_uturn.php
1. But that has the Liberal Democrats gaining seats.
7. Punter
Indeed! That is why it is specially for our Mark
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 44% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 46%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
wow you posted this without leaving your seat! I presume that you automatically set a time when it would appear when you wrote it?
New Star Tribune Presidential Poll for Minnesota :
McCain 40% .. Clinton 49%
McCain 38% .. Obama 51%
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/19043139.html?location_refer=Homepage
Apologies if this has already been said, but Brown reminds me a bit of Jim Callaghan. It’s often argued that if Callaghan had called an election in 1978, he would have won it; likewise, if Brown had gone ahead and called one in autumn 2007, he (probably) would have won, and would have been in a stronger position as a result. Both missed out on their best opportunity when it was there, and for Brown it’s now too late.
I’m glad he didn’t call it, of course - if he’d won, we’d have been stuck with him until 2012! But if Brown’s watching this video now, he must be kicking himself that he ‘bottled it’.
Quite a difference between Brown then and now- appears a lot more confident and upbeat. Gives you an idea of how hard the last few months have been for the man.
1- Getting a little disappointed of how poorly the Conservatives are doing North of the border- still, I’d imagine that the SNP are soaking up the protest votes. Honest question, though- if the Tories make little breakthrough in Scotland in 2010, despite winning handsomely in England and Wales- Will the Scottish Conservatives become the Scottish Unionists- an independent party?
I was never convinced he would win an election last year. most likely a hung parliament but where would tat have left him and Nulab
12 Alasdair
We probably have the SNP to thank for Brown not calling an autumn 2007 General Election. The puir laddie was fillin his breeks.
1/8 Strangely Stuart . I actually think that all rhese small subsamples are fairly meaningless but like to post the ones favourable to LibDems to counteract the ones you mormally only quote which are unfavourable .
On a technical note the subsample size is 88 not 53 , the 53 being the number that express a voting intention of 5-10 .
12 It’s commonly accepted that by “won” in October 1978 he could perhaps have again been largest Party in a hung parliament. It’s not as if the Polls private and Public were predicting a comfortable overall Majority! Obviously better than how it turned out, but how could he know how crazy Scanlon and his buddies would be just before an election.
17 There will be another winter of discontent either this year or more likely 09/10.
Holding public sector pay down as a method of beating inflation is exactly where it all went wrong for Callaghan in 1978.
If I was working in the public sector I’d be incensed to be told that I was having to suffer a pay cut because the Government have lost control of the economy.
And as the chances of a 2010 Labour Government fade the unions may well feel they are better off having a bare knuckle fight with a weak Labour Government now than trying to take on a strong, newly elected Conservative administration then.
13. I think there will have to be a realignment of Scottish politics. The Labour Party in Scotland will have to become its own master, or lose all credibility. Wendy Alexander caving in at the sound of ‘her master’s voice’ has not played well in Scotland. It was reported in the press here that Labour MSPs had their tails up at the idea of setting their own policy, and felt humiliated when they received their orders to knuckle under.
I have said on here before that the Conservative Party is now marginal in Scotland. My own political inclination is conservative, but I would like to see an independent Scotland now. I do not think asymmetrical devolution is sustainable. We are, in effect, in a trial separation of the marriage of England and Scotland, and my experience after rather more than half a century on the planet is that trial separations are fairly reliable indicators that a marriage is over.
The centre of gravity of the SNP is social democratic, so Labour supporters who move towards supporting independence have an obvious home. At the moment, it is less clear where people on the right who favour independence can go. My own feeling is that Alex Salmond is a supreme realist, who has seen what low taxes have done for small countries, in the Baltic States and in Ireland, and that the realities of having to make a go of an independent nation would force an effective move to the right.
We shall see. But I certainly do think the parties north of the Border will need a very great degree of autonomy at the least. Something like the situation with the CSU in Bavaria and the CDs in Germany.
Last October, I thought that Brown was cruelly set up by a tank crew in Iraq, when they asked him to autograph ‘To Cyclops, with thanks, Gordon Brown.’
Falling for such a stunt undermined his credibility.
18. And holding down pay to keep inflation under control doesn’t quite square with the stated rationale for the £2.7bn tax cut.
re 18 I’m sure that the nurses will be thanking their union for cosying up to the government in a behind the scenes pay deal which gives them 2.4% next year at a time when inflation (and when I mention inflation I mean RPI not the government’s fantasy measure) will be pushing 5%.
I dont believe this was the pivotal point in that the decision itself triggered the poll fall.
Labour’s own internal polling suggested problemsn that might see a net loss of seats.
People were starting to notice the economic pinch at that point and that really is the base problem.
I have to say Mike that it was not just bottling the election which would have lost him seats (probably) but the manner in which it was done.
There was Balls and co egging the media on, then the visit to Iraq to fib about troops coming home followed by canceling the election and insisting it was all got up by the media.
The last bit was the large sack that broke the camels back, it already having been much overloaded in the first place.
I remember watching Jacqui Smith insist that to Adam Bolton that it was all media led which caused him to go bananas.
19- interesting insight- what I didn’t realise until reccently that there was a significant strand of Scottish Nationalism which was fairly conservative- though it’s clearly dominated by the more social democratic strand. I agree that the current system helps no one.
As a Conservative, I think that that the Scottish Conservatives need to take a different approach. Perhaps a better strategy would be to advocate federalism: keep the monarchy, keep the united foregin policy, military and natural resources but cut off everything else.
It’s keeping the unionist tag but making the concessions that nationalists want. Plus, the political benefits are endless: Conservatives north of the border increase their support, south of the border, it would make life a lot easier because Scottish MPs could only vote on military and foreign affairs. Also- devolution with the SNP in charge actually seems to have cut the demand for independence.
Risky, but could work.
re 24 Benedict you’re being too soft. He’s not a fibber he’s a liar. He might be deluded of course but that doesn’t exonerate the lies.
24 - I think that that Adam Boulton moment was an absolute classic. It was symbolic of the point at which the media turned on Labour.
24 - yeah, you’re right. They didn’t actually need to do all the public fronting they did for an election, they could have quite easily done it on the quiet and then announced if they wanted to.
Making it look like you’re going to call an election and then denying the people their say is never going to be a popular move.
Mike - enjoy the cricket!
Looks nailed on for a draw now (although thats usually a good result for England at Lords!!!)
re 26, Chris A “re 24 Benedict you’re being too soft. He’s not a fibber he’s a liar. He might be deluded of course but that doesn’t exonerate the lies.”
To lie you have to tell something you believe to be false, which assumes he has a clue what the truth is.
Out of interest what is your position on the requirement to consider a childs need for a father in the Human fertilisation and embryology bill?
Re 27, James Burdett “24 - I think that that Adam Boulton moment was an absolute classic. It was symbolic of the point at which the media turned on Labour.”
Absolutely! Since then the media have been out for blood.
Re 1) Based on the actual notionals:
Conservatives 3 (gain Galloway and Stirling)
Labour 23 (lose 18)
Liberal Democrats 14 (gain Aberdeen South, Edinburgh North, Edinburgh South)
SNP 19 (gain 13 all from Labour)
Re the main article, you are as usual spot on. That interview was Labour’s version of Norman Lamont’s press conference on Black Wednesday and the press conference at Newbury in 1993 combined!
25 - there are all shades of opinion in those who favour Independence and not all vote SNP- one friend is a Marxist (from a very wealthy titled family!) all the way to Royalist Scots - it is a very broad church indeed)
Canvassing today was the best for such a long time, pity there is no election. We were out doing the National Coversation survey, quite a lot of the minority who said they were Labour - broke 60/40 in favour of ‘Yes’ in an any referendum. Even a few Tories. Didn’t find one LD today. Sorry Mark.
Senator Jim Webb on MSNBC says he’s “not that interested in becoming Vice President” :
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24692961#24692961
31 - Stirling will be an interesting one, given the SNP gain of the Holyrood seat (admittedly on different boundaries). I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lib Dems lost B,S&R to the Tories though
Re 28, Anton Chigurh “24 - yeah, you’re right. They didn’t actually need to do all the public fronting they did for an election, they could have quite easily done it on the quiet and then announced if they wanted to.”
Well,yes, though the plan seems to have been to sow disarray in the Conservative party and split them at their conference without realising that the threat of an election would pull them together like nothing else. I can’t conceive how someone could have thought that this stupid stunt would have worked. It was daft from the off as obviously the threat of an election does get people to pull together.
Further more, having pre announced it through the media it ceased to be a surprise snap election.
“Making it look like you’re going to call an election and then denying the people their say is never going to be a popular move.”
Maybe, but the key damage was to the relationship with the media, especially when Brown and co decided to blame them for the speculation!
32- should be *conversation*
Mention made of Cons taking out a writ, presumably on Labour libels or slanders. Any news on that? Are there any precedents?
33 Such a hard won Senate seat though. I think either Kaine or Clarke would fit the bill better.
re 30 Of course a child needs a father - anything else is nonsense. You and I will probably disagree about whether he and the mother need to be in a heterosexual relationship or not though.
Any updates on how the canvas went in C& N today?
How times have changed.
Firstly he says [having a go at the Tories] you can’t throw 5 billion pounds at things and not show where it is coming from [cough, cough].
Secondly, the man has aged about 5 to 10 years.
Thirdly. It is clear he has no idea he is sitting there in the nuddy.
No 4. He has no idea Boulton, the big beast, is growling in the gutter.
No5 His body language says ‘I am right and I am confident you will accept this’.
We all talk about the media backlash leading events down hill, noone believes him anymore etc…but this is also the moment Gordon lost confidence in himself. He has never got it back. It has affected his strategic decision making ever since leading him to misunderstand the reaction at every end and turn.
Re the last subject, just remember if Scotland breaks up the UK to leave England, Wales and N Ireland behind, English taxpayers may lose the Barnet formula which apparently unfairly benefits Scottish taxpayers but Westminster will lose, the oil revenues, the gas revenues, the huge potential revenues from renewables (the Pentland Firth once harnessed can power the whole of Europe never mind Britain), the whisky revenues and the entire Edinburgh financial sector which is Europe’s 4th largest.
Re Scottish seats, why on earth do any of you think the LibDem will gain seats? Together with their Labour partners they are going to be taken apart except in their Highland boltholes.
The Scottish Censervatives are polling up around 20% and they always poll 2-3% above any opinion poll.
As I have predicted several times on recent postings, Scotland will provide the real shocks if there are no major swings back to Labour in 2010.
LibDems will probably lose Gordon to SNP, Argyll to SNP, Inverness to SNP and West Aberdeen to the Cons,Berwickshire to the Cons or SNP.
Labour will probably lose Stirling to either SNP or Cons, East Renfrewshire to Cons, Edinburgh South to Cons, Edinburgh SW will give Alistair Darling his P45 falling to Cons, Dumfries to Cons, Dundee West to SNP, Ochil to SNP, Aberdeen South to SNP, Cumernauld to SNP, possibly another Lanarkshire seat to SNP, either Livingston or Linlithgow to SNP, possibly Central Fife to SNP and if Labour are doing really badly, the Ayrshire seat containing the Tory Ayr Holyrood seat to the Cons and Cunningham North to the SNP. Remember albeit on better boundaries for the Cons, The Scottish Conservatives lost 11 seats in 1987 and then the remaining 10 in 1997, Labour now control 2 out of 32 councils in Scotland. The Scottish Conservatives are now the largest party group on several councils.
I wonder if Andrew Marr spat or swallowed after that interview.
42 Agree with much of what you write but it is wrong to assume that Westminister would definately lose all the gas and oil revenues. There would be a negotiation the outcome of which is uncertain
44 Wrong - While there would be negotiations regarding the detail, the basic prinicple is enshrined in international law - Scotland owns its natural resources without question.
And the maritime border will also be determined by international law which would give Scotland around 90% of the oil reserves.
Under international law the oil and gas fields lie within what would be Scottish territorial waters and I cannot see any Scottish government taking Scotland out of the UK being willing to negotiate away its largest current assets. We saw at the end of last week a move by the SNP Government to demand Westminster refund Attendance Allowance moneys which have been clawed back by Brown. That move was supported by both the Scottish Conservatives, the party which helped the SNP pass its budget and the LibDems. Labour under Bendy Wendy stupidly opposed the move and from now until 2011 the electorate will be constantly reminded of the fact.
Alex Salmond shook Scottish Labour a week ago by confirming in principle he would support a David Cameron government at Westminster on an issue by issue basis, exactly the same arrangement he has with Annabel Goldie at Holyrood. As I keep reminding listers, it was the SNP and Scotland which brought down the last Labour Government and I suspect they will do the same again by obliterating the LAbour Lobby fodder from Scotland at Westminster.
Re 37, Svjek “Mention made of Cons taking out a writ, presumably on Labour libels or slanders. Any news on that? Are there any precedents?”
It is because Labour are using photoshoped pictures of our man on their leaflets which is illegal. (the ones with the top hat put on)
For those with an interest in politics, this was the moment - in retrospect, anyway.
For the wider public it was more a head’s up, a warning that they ought to take notice. But still, it was a decision that was understandable in political terms. The moment that mattered more to Joe Public was the denial of the EU referendum. That was a clear breach of trust that the majority of the population considered unforgivable. .
Re 39, Chris A “re 30 Of course a child needs a father - anything else is nonsense. You and I will probably disagree about whether he and the mother need to be in a heterosexual relationship or not though.”
What about the need for a mother as well?
42. Easterross.
Can’t say I know the details but the ‘who owes what oil/gas?’ is a regular debate on here.
Apparently half the gas is in English waters even if you accept the Scottish/English waters thing.
No legal expert myself on this issue [there are others on here who maybe] but the ‘internal’ definition [apparently] is not binding internationally for the purposes of who owns the oil. Apparently the division could cause years of legal argument or the need for a negotiated settlement.
I have used the word ‘apparently’ alot - for a reason! [No point in arguing it with me - not got the foggiest]
38 - I think Wes Clark (I assume that is who you refer to) would be a good choice for Obama. Is a white southerner and has the FP credentials that Obama needs. Seems a pretty safe pair of hands if not amazingly inspiring. Is a Clinton supporter so might heal that rift.
Just don’t see the attraction of Kaine. Yes he is a Southern Governor but what else does he bring? No FP experience and doesn’t seem to have any particular energy or vitality. Also would mean giving the Republicans the Governorship (the LG is a Republican) in a state that the Democrats are making real progress in.
I remember the day very well, though largely for non-political reasons. I was drinking at the Prince of Wales in Cardiff, between watching England beat Australia on TV, and preparing to go into the Millennium Stadium to see France beat the All Blacks.
As a non-partisan, I had been very impressed with Brown as PM in his first few weeks - he had handled floods and terrorist attacks (as much as a PM ever does) with ease, and an essentially British sense of ‘give him a chance’ had matured into a sincere (and completely wrong) belief that he was very capable, on both policy but also politically. The Thatcher photo-shoot, the ‘moral compass’ speech (even though I flinched at BJFBW, I put it down to a speechwriter’s error), the idea of having a PM who seemed to shun spin (compared to Blair) and appeared to be an intellectual heavyweight (again, compared to Blair - a talented PM, but not an intellectual).
I was realistic about his time as Chancellor - I still think that the Chancellor has very little scope for positive impact but that it is an easy as Chancellor to create havoc - he had avoided an economy-destroying mistake for 10 years, which to my mind made him a decent Chancellor. I don’t set my standards that high.
Had he called the election on (for example) the Monday of the Tory Party Conference, I would almost certainly have voted Labour.
The BBC news flashed up on a TV around 2:30 or so that there would not be a General Election that autumn, and I felt the first indiscernable whiff of concern - why was this being cancelled, how had the message been so confused, and what did it say about him as a person that he felt comfortable governing without a mandate?
I went to the game, drank plenty, and forgot about politics until I got back on Sunday evening. I decided to catch up on what I had missed, and watched this video. I knew then that he had lost the only chance of ever winning an election outright, and that he had stopped being lucky. I could feel the mood amongst my friends (of various political persuasions) turn against him - as much for the duplicity as the cowardice.
I don’t know how I will vote next time around - I think Cameron has developed extraordinarily well over the last year, and is now looking like a PM-in-waiting, though I am less convinced by many of his front bench team - a good local candidate would swing it for me. I think Nick Clegg is a fool, but might vote for the Lib Dems if they put up a fantastic local candidate, and start to develop a serious national platform. I would struggle to vote Labour next time, unless they replace Gordon Brown as leader. If none of the three main parties meet their respective criteria, I think I’ll spoil my ballot paper.
It may sound petty, but not calling that election was (for me at least) the moment that it all changed.
48 quite correct. to the average joe the sight of broon standing there saying ” the constitutional concept was abandoned” was the most blatant lie and the public could never trust the man again.
europhiles will convince themselves that Europe doesnt matter but the sight of your PM lying through his teeth is a vote changing moment.
44. Not sure you can say split opposition in the Gower and Swansea West. Seems clear to me that Swansea West is for the LDs challenger. Gower for the Tories. No split I can see. As for Cardiff hm watch the Council elections for West and South should be as you say but they’re no longer massive bankers.
What do you think of this “Blog Menai offers some of his his predictions for the next general and Assembly elections based on the results of this month’s local elections:
Ynys Môn: The data here isn’t sufficient to base a prediction upon, but it’s hard to see Labour’s demise across Wales not having an effect on this marginal seat (though Môn has a history of going its own way). So Plaid to take the seat in the generals and hold it in the Assembly elections.
Arfon: Plaid to take the seat easily in the generals (on paper it is a Labour seat in the wake of boundary changes), and Plaid to hold the seat in the Assembly elections without problems.
Meirion Dwyfor: Plaid to hold the seat fairly easily in the generals, and to hold it in the Assembly elections -though Llais Gwynedd could be a challenge if things haven’t changed there. Although this was Plaid’s strongest seat by far in the last Assembly elections, I would expect Plaid to get a higher percentage in Arfon and Carmarthen East in the next Westminster and Assembly elections. Electoral harm has been done here.
Ceredigion: Plaid to continue moving forward, so that the Party should regain the Westminster seat in a fairly tight contest, and hold the Assembly seat fairly easily.
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Plaid to hold the Westminster and Assembly seats easily. This will be a stronger seat for Plaid than the two Gwynedd seats.
Llanelli: Scrutinising the local election figures I believe Plaid will take this seat for the first time in the generals with a majority of more than 5%. Helen Mary Jones will hold the seat easily in the Assembly as well.
Pembrokeshire Preseli: The Tories to hold the seat easily in the generals. Plaid and not Labour will come second in the Assembly elections.
Carmarthen West Pembrokeshire South: The Tories to take the seat from Nick Ainger in the generals easily. Labour could have problems even coming in second place. Plaid to take the seat from the Tories in the Assembly elections.”
re 49 mother? you’ve lost me now.
re 52, Morus, interesting post.
That said the time I turned against Labour was in 1979 and nothing since has changed my mind
Re 55, ChrisA “re 49 mother? you’ve lost me now.”
Well, surely a child needs a mother and a father in its life?
51 - Clarke is a safe choice, but I really cannot see him as a President-in-waiting choice should the worst happen. Also, I think the Democrats need to choose someone who can run as the incumbant VP (unless Clarke was a one term choice, and was dropped for a new VP when Obama no longer needed the ‘credibility and experience’ support on the ticket). Good, but not great - also seems driven more by uniting the party than anything else. Making the decision on primarily those grounds could be seen as Democratic navel gazing, or a tacit acknowledgement that Obama doesn’t have a strong mandate from his own party. I say unity be damn£d, and choose a good Obama supporter who can take over when needed or run in 8 years.
Kaine ensures Virginia (should win it anyway) and is very competant, and likeable. Fiscally responsible, which will be key if Obama is running on an overhaul of health, education and social security. Not got FP background, but that’s the only weak spot. TIME rated him one of America’s Top 5 governors (with Napolitano, Huckabee, Sibelius, Richardson, and the chap from Nevada).
Glad Webb has ruled himself out. Punter is right at 33 - his Senate seat was too hard to win to give it up so soon, and it’s not like there is a dearth of candidates.
re 52 he had avoided an economy-destroying mistake for 10 years, which to my mind made him a decent Chancellor.
What about his very first act to raid the pension funds, or what about his inability to reduced debt and save for the current rainy day? Pigeons make take a very long time to come home, but roost they will eventually.
Brown likes to spin the the current economic woes are nothing to do with him and that he has been masterly in charge. He’s delusional about this as about many other things.
Re the writ.
Cameron didn’t make a big deal of it when asked about it today.
Said you have to take abit of rough and tumble at by elections but you have to draw the line somewhere and to his mind that was at illegality.
The pictures as Benedict has said were the issue and are illegal.
When asked by a BBC reporter if he should just have let it go he replied along the lines of…
If someone took a picture of you, drew on a Hitler moustache on it and said, ‘Don’t listen to this man he is a nazi’, how would you like it?
…Cut back to reporter saying in a ‘bring it on if they dare’ voice, ‘Well, they could try!’.
I suspect it is about sending a warning shot across the bow of the Labour Dunwoody dirty tricks department and bringing some attention to the unsavioury nature of their campaign.
re 57 yes it does, but you asked me about fathers. I don’t think technology has yet advanced to the point where we could have a child who didn’t have a mother.
52 Morus PC got 5.5% in CS in 2005. Sure they can hurt Labour but you can’t think they can win in 2-3 elections can you really.
C&N joke of the day
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7406957.stm
Meanwhile, with the by-election campaign nearing its end, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg told BBC Radio 4 he thought his party could win it.
LimpDems are, wait for it, wait for it, 109/1 on Betfair. I didn’t know you could go that high!
PC might get Ynys mon and thats it - no other gains this GE next GE or any other GE
Llanelli has more chance of winning Champions league than electing PC in an GE
In Dumfries and Galloway Council it is Cons 18, Lab 14, SNP 10, LD 3; In East Renfrewshire Council it is Cons 7, Lab 7, SNP 3, LD 1; in Perthshire and Kinross Council it is Cons 12, Lab 3, SNP 18 LD 8; In Scottish Borders Council it is Cons 11, Lab 0, SNP 6, LD 10; and finally in South Ayrshire Council it is Cons 15, Lab 14 with 1 other holding the balance of power. So in 4 council areas where the Conservatives are the largest party they contain key target seats for the Conservatives.
Re 61, ChrisA “re 57 yes it does, but you asked me about fathers. I don’t think technology has yet advanced to the point where we could have a child who didn’t have a mother.”
It has not advanced to the point where you do not need a biological father either though obviously that will not stop people having a biological father who then has no involvement.
The need for the father is based on actual presence rather than biological relationship.
58 - I think Clark is a credible President-in-waiting. He has serious military credibility and FP experience that blunts the McCain attacks of inexperience. Don’t think it is a problem if he doesn’t run as VP again. One election at a time.
Kaine, don’t really know enough about him. But if you rule Webb out for the Senate seat that might be lost why rule out Kaine for the Governorship that will be lost? He may be personable but my view is that you want someone who contrasts with Obama. From the bits that I’ve seen of him he doesn’t have enough impact.
62 - The split in the Assembly Elections in Cardiff South & Penarth in 2007 was:
Labour Co-op: 37.8%
Conservative: 27.5%
Lib Dem: 20.4%
PC: 14.4%
The 2005 General was Labour (47.3%) Conservative (22.2%) Lib Dem (20.4%) and PC (5.5%).
To me, that indicates that Labour voters take refuge in PC rather than in other main parties, and that when Alun Michael steps down and the party doesn’t beenfit from his high personal reputation, there will be a significant anti-Labour swing to PC, with small swings to the Tories and LDs (based on council voting movements). PC have enhanced their credibility as ‘more than a protest in S Wales’ thanks to being in government on the doorstep of this constituency.
I don’t think this will mean PC are competitive in Cardiff South & Penarth this time, but the second or third General Election from now could see them be strong contenders in what I expect to become quite an interesting 3 or 4 way marginal.
64 - I’d expect PC to hold their three seats, and gain Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, and probably Llanelli.
PUNTER - Can you provide a link to Menai Blog? I’ve not come across it before…
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 46% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 41% .. Obama 52%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107329/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-Clinton-Points.aspx
67 - That’s fair - for the record, I have always said I like Kaine, Webb, and Mark Warner, but that all three of them are better for the Democrats where they are, and for that reason should be overlooked (Webb for other reasons too). I just don’t think Kaine should be excluded from consideration for not being good enough.
I ‘mispoke’ on Clarke - he is absolutely credible, but I just don’t find him Presidential. An able Army Chief of Staff, or Secretary of Defense (if its been long enough since he was an active General), or a solid VP, but I cannot see him as the man in the Oval Office. Probably just me…!
68 OK i forgot about ceredigion (easily done)! Yes I agree they will get rid of the LD there!
LD will only have 1 seat in Wales (Montgomery) and if its REALLY good for Cons they will lose that too……
71 Ave it. Your predictions are as credible as your football team !! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLLOLO
72 ho ho ho have you been on the sherry this afternoon?
70 - This is why the VP market is a mugs game. It is so difficult to narrow down the field because it comes down to one person’s judgement with lots of different factors in play. I think a lot will depend on whether Obama wants to take risks or play it safe. If he wants safe then I can’t think of someone better than Clark. If he wants a risk there probably isn’t a better one than Webb.
71 - LOL!
But they hold on like vampire bats when they are incumbants. I think they will hold three (Mongomeryshire, Brecon & Radner, and the impregnable Cardiff Central) and stand an outside chance of gaining Swansea West when the Father of the House retires.
My 2009/10 General Election predictions in Wales:
Labour 17 seats, Conservative 11 seats, PC 6 seats, LD 4 seats, Independent 1 seat.
You should be fairly happy if that is the result, shouldn’t you?!
71 You think they’ll lose Cardiff Central?!
75 I’ll take it - TY!!!!
54- I agree- Llanelli will go to Plaid, from what I know, there’s little confidence in the MP and it’ll be very interesting if Helen Mary Jones stands for Westminster. If I was her I would, because she’d win it easily.
Conservatives and Plaid could make serious gains against Labour in Wales at the next General Election. I was looking at the stats yesterday. In the valleys and most of the west, Plaid will soak up the anti-Labour vote while the Conservatives wget it elsewhere. The result could be the Labour vote falling as low as 30% (from 42). This is where Electoral Calculus fails because there’s no consideration of an increase in Plaid vote.
Judging at the current political climate I would expect an increase of about 7-8% for both Tories and Plaid and a fall of 12% for Labour and a fall of 3% for the Liberal Democrats. The very interesting thing is that this would put Labour and the Tories near level in terms of both percentage and seats- quite unbelievably.
Speaking first hand, the anti-Conservative sentiment in Wales is dying out- or rather, the pro Labour sentiment is dying out. Don’t be surprised if Labour lose their Welsh majority. While the swing to the Conservatives won’t be as great as in England, the swing away from Labour will be as Plaid Cymru are going to take a lot of votes away from Labour.
I think it all fell apart when Gordon flew out to Iraq in an attempt to upstage the Tory Party conference.
In itself that would have been fine, “all’s fair in love and war”.
But Gordon went too far by promising the troops personally and not telling Parliament that they would be home for Christmas, which of course they were not. Sending our armed forces to war is part of the job of a PM, politically exploiting them for his own career is not in hie remit.
76: all about the Con comeback in Cardiff! but I’ll take 75!
72 - having seen his football team on Wednesday night, I’d say you’re doing his predictions a grave disservice….
“44 Wrong - While there would be negotiations regarding the detail, the basic prinicple is enshrined in international law - Scotland owns its natural resources without question.
And the maritime border will also be determined by international law which would give Scotland around 90% of the oil reserves.”
The basic principle is determined by whatever is negotiated by the parties. If Scotland sought indpendence, you can’t imagine an English government would make things easy for them?
74 - A mug’s game? It’s certainly volatile, but there is a lot of money that always goes on no-hopers, so if you rule out certain candidates you can normally make some profit. You could lay the ones you think are unlikely, but I find betting on a limited number of plausible candidates after ruling out the impossibles gives better odds.
I’m green on Richardson (very), Sibellius, and Bayh.
I’m neutral on Clarke or Clinton (I think both choices would be faily forced).
I’m red-and-then-some on Webb, Obama, Edwards, Gore, Nunn, Warner, Strickland, Dodd and Biden (thinking about neutralising my exposure on Biden).
83 - indeed, the VP market seems to resemble the Grand National - outsiders think it’s a lottery with a colossal number of runners; shrewdies realise there’s only a dozen or so potential winners and back them at inflated double-digit prices.
83. I’d reduce your redness on Edwards, if I were you…
Ladbrokes have suspended Obama on the ‘next president’ market??
Also Cons suspended at C&N (but not Lab or Lib Dems).
England/NZ to be a draw at 1/16 or Cons to win C&N at 1/8. Which is better value??? A crazy world…
82 - quite. I think some people forget that once the Scots vote for Independence, the rest of the UK will be under no obligation to them whatsoever in their subsequent negotiations and dealings.
84 - Kieran is a shrewd as most on the VP selections, and although I agree with you on the VP market, he makes a good point.
My problem is that (to a certain extent) I bet on who Obama *should* choose, not who he will. It is such a personal decision, and there will be so many extra factors, that he could pull a decision from out of left field, and confound even the most knowledgeable punter. Having said that, I still think there are some names bandied about that are so untenable, that no nominee would choose them. It’s just deciding where to draw the line in the pursuit of profit.
The claim that he didn’t want it wasn’t exactly Shermanesque was it? I thought about reducing my exposure when there were rumours he would endorse, but something held me back. I don’t think Obama owes him (if Edwards had come out for him after Florida, he could have helped with white working class voters during the contests - he didn’t and Obama is still having to wait) and I share people’s concern about how useful he actually is on the ticket.
If I was concerned, I’d cover it off, but that would reduce my profits on Richardson and the others, and I still think they are more likely.
82/88 - although it is a very interesting question as to how those negotiations could operate. Since the Scots will presumably be still represented in Westminster you could have rather a large number of conflicts of interest! Could political independence happen BEFORE negotiations are concluded?
There’s a passage from Brown in that interview which given the recent £2.7 billion borrowed to fund the 10p tax compensation makes for interesting reading:
“when you come to dissect the Conservative policies if you throw £5 billion at a problem, 2p on income tax at a problem, and not show how you’re going to fund it, then for a short moment you can persuade people that you’ve got a policy but when it comes to the forensic job of dissecting that policy it will be found that the Conservative policy not just doesn’t add up, but leads to economic disarray.”
87 - The England draw is better value IMHO - I don’t think we know enough about C&N or how the smear tactics are working (because they do work more often than we would like).
Does anyone really think that the Tories’ chances in C&N are really almost as good as Obama for the nomination?
For the record, I stand to lose £40 to some of our best posters if Labour don’t hold C&N. I have not-too-much of a problem with the ‘Toff’ stuff - it’s facile and disappointing, but not the end of politics as we know it - however after the ‘friend of paedophiles’ smear, I’m actually looking forward to writing the cheques.
82: I suspect that the rest of Europe (not to mention much of the rest of the English speaking world) will be only too happy to help the Scots.
93 - What? Lend them their navies or something?
73 Ave It. Sherry trifle actually !!
93. You seem to assume that Scotland will be a member of the EU. Thats a matter for the remainder of the UK and the other member states, and will be subject to negotiations, and can be vetoed by any single member state. It would be a rich irony if that, the Scots had to surrender their exploration rights as a condition of membership of a club that they pre independence are already a member of. ROFL.
94. The English don’t seem to realise how unpopular they are internationally. I once turned a hostile Frenchman into a friend by saying “Je ne suis pas anglais, je suis ecossais”.
Just back from Crewe. Personally delivered 500 copies of the “News on Sunday” leaflet. A very busy and well run Campaign office in Crewe - plenty of helpers, loads from Conservative Future.
I delivered in what you would expect to be solid Labour council estates - the sort of place they used to spell out VO-TE LA-BO-UR over five adjacent sets of bedroom windows!
Not so much these days. I counted 23 houses with Labour posters. (Including the gloriously ironic “Tamsin Dunwoody - one of us!”. She shares so much with the people of Crewe - if they happen to live 175 miles away and have an entry in Debrett’s!). I saw two houses with Conservative posters (are the folk of Crewe going soft or what? There was a time they would have been burnt to the ground for their temerity….)
The thing that truly astonished me though was that in these 500 houses there was NOT ONE LIB-DEM POSTER!!! And I was looking - almost obsessively by the end. I thought I had spotted one orange diamond in the very last street - but it turned to be a sign saying “Kangaroos x-ing”… WTF is going on in this place????
Neither did I see a Lib-Dem activist today. Lots of Labour - they have wheeled them in from far and wide. One guy kept turning up to leaflet a street I had just done. Happened several times. All very good natured stuff though. I reckon they are going through the motions, but they know it isn’t close enough to be worth getting nasty about.
But not a single Lib-Dem. Wow….they have a few high profile poster sites on some of the main roads - as you’d expect. But not one little gold diamond in a big council estate? Weird. Either they have no support - or they are telling their supporters to hide and deny their allegiance until Thursday. I can’t work out which is the more improbable.
Wasn’t canvassing, but spoke to a good few people. Still some of the “always have, always will” Labour types in evidence. But quite a few who said they won’t be voting Labour this time. And I was surprised at just how well the Conservatives are being received. People were even reading our literature, for God’s sake. Have they no shame? Don’t they know what the recycling bin is for?? Oh, and the “toff” stuff? Playing very badly. The Tories were praised for not sinking into the sewer with Labour by playing the smear game themselves.
Was amused by three kids who asked me what I was giving out. When I said I was from the Tories, one girl said “my mum’s a Tory!” And then her mate pipes up “My mum’s a Tory too!” Then one of the lads said “I don’t like the Tories!” I left him being beaten up by the two girls….
These council estates in Crewe took me back a good few years to my childhood. Exactly the sort of place my grandparents lived. A lovely bright sunny day, everyone out and about in their gardens - lots of impeccably cut privet hedges and bowling-green flat lawns and jaunty bedding plants.
There is a lot of civic pride still here amongst these people. And they take as much interest in the way their country is governed. Gordon, beware. You have p1ssed off the mowing and hedge-cutting and strimming class. I suspect they are going to mow and cut and strim your vote on Thursday.
McCain on Saturday Night Live
Yeah baby!: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/mccain_on_snl.php
89 - Well I suppose there is some mileage in that approach but the effort/reward ratio isn’t great. I would definitely concur with the should/will problem. For me that aplies to Clinton for example where there are lots of arguments for putting her on the ticket but he really doesn’t want to.
The way I look at it is what would the ideal candidate look like:
1. Southerner
2. Governor
3. Foreign-policy experience
4. Presidential
5. Experienced
6. Good on the stump
7. Does no harm
No candidate does all of these so even deciding who he should nominate is tricky without trying to factor in Obama’s personal preferences. My problem is that I can see reasons why everybody mentioned shouldn’t get it.
Take the ones you back. Richardson - minority-minority ticket questionable in terms of white working class. Sibelius - ditto minority-woman ticket. Kansas is not in play, it is a poke in the eye for Clinton and her SOTU address didn’t go down well. Bayh - Senator-Senator ticket questionable, although he is a former Governor. Don’t get me wrong these are all credible contenders it’s just nobody stands out to me.
Some discussion on Kos on whether Mississippi is in play for Obama. Perhaps the question should be with a AA population of 38% why ever not ??
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/18/115022/815/380/517291
97. The scots have played the victim card for a long time, despite Scots playing a large part in our enterprises over seas.
We are obsessed with centralisation in this country. Would it not be possible to givs Scots more autonomy then they have right now? How about revenues collected and spent within Scotland, including vat, income tax, etc?
Autonomy within the Union?
98 — Very vivid portrait; thank you.
Alex,
It is an interesting point agingjb makes. Scotland historically is close to France, the Netherlands and Poland and has Ireland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark as its other neighbours. There are many EU countries which would love to annoy England by supporting the Scots. After all its the UK which is a member of the EU not England though I appreciate that millions of people south of Hadrian’s Wall dont actually know there is any difference. There is a view among Jurists (that’s legal experts not 12 men and women who sit in an English criminal court)that each constituent country within the UK would require to apply for membership of the EU and whilst as a Tory I disagree with many of their policies the SNP do support most mainstream EU policies like membership of the Euro, the Shengen agreement etc. I seem to remember when studying International PRivate Law almost 30 years ago that determining questions of territorial waters etc are farly clearly defined. Then of course the good people of Berwick might carry out their threat of voting to return to Scotland and that would move both the land and maritime east coast borders south by a mile or two.
101 - Because in 2004 Bush got 85% of the white vote, and the Democratic Primary saw Hillary getting one of her largest shares of the white vote IIRC.
O/T
I hope you enjoyed the absorbing days cricket at Lords.
Could have sworn I saw you chatting to John McCririck discussing the odds about Michael Vaughan scoring 100!
97. Oh no, an angry frenchman, like we haven’t dealt with a fair few of those over the centuries.
105 Kieran. Points taken. However the GOP is a tainted brand now, even in Mississippi and with AA differential turnout and the vast AA voter registration drives taking place I believe McCain will have to spend time and money shoring up his southern base.
Re 101, Jack W “Perhaps the question should be with a AA population of 38% why ever not ??”
Have they got that many members of alcoholics anonymous?
107
But us, Frenchy Boys in North America, we love you people of England, and we encourage you not to fuse with continental Europe, to keep on with that salvatory Euro-scepticism… and to protect yourself from islamization… Ha!
108 - In his GE Map,
Ambinder put Mississipi into McCain’s base states
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_general_election_map.php
I am pleased to hear from Marquee Mark that the Labour supporters he has encountered today were good humoured. When a party like Labour this time approve of a very nasty set of campaign tactics, some of the A**eholes on the fringes start to take things too far. In 1987 when I was the Tory candidate in Glasgow Shettleston, while my Labour opponent was a very honourable and decent man (and David Marshall still is), some of his election team were rattled that a Tory would dare campaign on “their” territory in council estates around Parkhead and Dalmarnock. As a consequence on several occasions I was threatened with violence by Labour party workers making allegations as to the marital status of my parents at the time of my birth and calling me among other things a toff and carpetbagger. On polling day a group of said Labour party workers punched and jostled me when I was doing some call outs and decided that kicking my car was perfectly proper behaviour. The irony was that I was visiting an aunt of my father’s and her husband who chose to live in the particular location and who I knew had no intention of voting for me as Labour diehards. I just hope that as Thursday approaches no hotheads surrounding the Labour campaign get over excited and resort to actions which go beyond the pathetic name calling which all the Labour toffs and their minions have been engaging in for the past 10 days.
108/113
Yet Chuck Todd and Tim make Mississippi only a McCain-leaning state if Obama’s the nominee :
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/03/11/753715.aspx
“*** Turning Mississippi blue? Take a look at Alabama (Obama won it by 14 points), Georgia (by 35 points), Louisiana (by 21 points) and South Carolina (by 28 points), and you’ll get an idea about Obama’s likely margin of victory. Frankly, if Clinton keeps Obama under 15 points, she may have a moral victory. That said, it wouldn’t be surprising if Obama won by 20-plus points considering the makeup of Mississippi’s electorate. In fact, Mississippi is one of those rare Southern states that might be in play in the general election if Obama becomes the nominee. One Dem statistician tells First Read that there are three red states that could swing if African-American turnout was ever maximized (both in registration and in actual turnout): Georgia, Louisiana and, yes, Mississippi. So don’t assume this is just one of those untouchable red states for the Dems when watching returns roll in tonight. ”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23572398#23572398
Jack W, the Conservatives were a tainted brand before Cameron came along. I reckon, and hope, this will be much closer than you think, and that McCain can win.
104 Easterross. Territorial waters are not clearly defined. Yes the existence of separate legal systems in England and Scotland means there’s already a division of the North Sea into two component regions.
However, oil would mean a new legal ball game if Scotland achieved independence. The hypothetical divide could mean using the international principle of equidistance, as applied under the UN Conventions on the Laws of the Sea.
While Scotland may well end up with most of the oil and gas the UK could use the conflicting law to make independence much more problematical.
107. Are you planning a rerun of Agincourt? If it’s Waterloo, remember the charge of the Scots Greys with the Gordon Highlanders hanging on their stirrups to get to the enemy more quickly.
110. Have you ever been to the UK?
104 and 65 Easterross. The Tories have doone well with the STV system for local government in Scotland. Do you think there will be a move to change the Parliamentray elections to STV too? IT would get rid of the two classes of MSP.
1 “Just for Mark Senior this one. We know that Mark absolutely loves these tiny sub-samples, if they flatter the Lab Dims (otherwise of course then in Mark’s honest opinion they are utter tripe).”
What rubbish. Mark has been consistent in saying these subsamples are meaningless. He has sometimes shown the ones you choose not to publicise, to show how selective you are in putting them up.
119
Only in London — a couple of weeks.
Jack - Obama could win MS but only in a landslide IMO i.e. 55% + nationally. Clinton won the white vote in the Primary 70-26. In 2004 Blacks made up 34% of voters. The ceiling on this is surely the low 40s. That still needs him to win 20-25% of the white vote at least. If he wins here or McCain has to defend it then it is over for him. If it is a close election I don’t think MS will be the battleground.
A note on brand. Remember the 1976 result. The GOP brand was in the tank and yet Carter only just beat Ford.
116
Dick Morris has a good advices for McCain — to win :
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/16/AR2008051603729.html
123
Rasmussen Reports primary poll in Mississippi :
“If Obama is nominated, just 47% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for Obama in the general election against John McCain.”
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/mississippi_democratic_presidential_primary
If this happen to be true, Obama can make it.
Im afraid its exactly the same on the GOP VP market. I have no less than 5 runners though most have been layed off as they had a moment in the spotlight, their price contracted and then as the train moved on to some other possible candidate, their oddas drifted some.
A few have stayed prominent such as Pawlenty, Crist and others such as the Huckster, who I was lucky to get at big odds and lay off easily have waxed and waned.
117 SLAM, You made my point. There will be NO UK. There will only be England, Wales and Northern Ireland.There will be no Great Britain. There will only be England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The negotiations will be between the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh and the English Parliament in Westminster. The Welsh and Northern Irish will probably also decide to go their own way. The UK Government stood shoulder to shoulder with other EU and Nato countries to insist that Montenegro separated from the rump Yugoslavia leaving Serbia and more recently Kosovo from Serbia. The same countries would equally arbitrate between Scotland and England if our 2 countries could not agree things.
PP’s have Clinton at 1-2000 to win in Kentucky and Obama at 18’s…
Whats the over round on that?
126
Do you have Romney? Does he stand a chance?
If memory serves me(probably doesn’t) offshore territory is allocated by extending borders out to sea. As the England/Scotland border points North East, the continuation cuts through the North Sea fields - so a large chunk of the best fields belong to England anyway. Just look at the map!
126 - I’ve found the GOP harder, even though they have fewer viable candidates.
I’m very green on Pawlenty, Crist and Sanford.
I’ve laid off of Huckabee and Rice and taken some modest profits - a little more no-risk profit if they actually get chosen.
Hagel, Lieberman and Romney would be very bad results for me, and
I have a little more exposure on Giuliani that I’d like, but I can’t bring myself to reverse that at the moment. Thinking about backing Bloomberg or Jindal as outsiders, but again, never quite want to put the money down because it feels too risk-averse.
129 - not a lot, it’s 105.21% (99.95% + 5.26%).
It is in fact considerably better than the over-round in a more competitive event e.g. 4/6 v 11/10 = 107.62%
In general however I would agree that conventional bookies should be a bit more competitive at the extreme odds.
129 - 1-2000 is 99.95% and 18-1 is about 5.25%, so about 105.2% - not extortionate, but no value there.
129. Nope.
I had Crist (layed off for very modest profit), Sanford (zero profit as he’s been pretty static much of the time so have just balanced the account), Huckster (who has done me very well bet and lay and was my first bet in the market) and Chris Cox, left to run because I completly missed laying him opff when the going was good and Jindal who is currently unlayed. I will seek to lay off on Jindal. Hes near half the odds that I got him at. All in, thanks to Huckabee the balance is ok but laying Jindal will boost it a bit.
Apparently McCain doesnt even like Romney and GOP polling suggests that Romney won’t bring much to the ticket. The idea that Romney may galvanise the conservative vote who are wary of McCain may nto be borne out in reality. In addition, the GOP have plans to mark Obama as so left wing that the conservatives are going to be sh1t scared of him and will get out and vote McCain whatever their reservations thus allowing McCain to spend his time trying to farm tehe centre.
Before anyone starts to say it won’t work or whatever, I dont care. I’m just stating what they plan to do. I am not saying its going to work or otherwise.
By all accounts in the GOP porimaries, if you felt Bush stank you most often tilted to McCain. If you felt Bush was pretty good, you most often tended Romney. If that is so you only have to work out what the GOP rank and file think of Bush…
131 - this was in the news some time last year regarding Scotland’s oil. Not sure how true it is.
Easterross Not sure about that. England is the biggest single EU market, and realpolitik takes over when money is concerned.
A break away Scotland will not be popular with Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Italy and most of the old Eastern Block entrants as they all have secessionist or separatist threats of their own and they see great danger in encouraging breakaways.
So Scotland may not be that welcome, and the UK, which is an EU member, will still exist. Scotland will be a new entity which will need to apply for membership. England as part of the EU will already be in the club.
As for Frenchmen, FergusMac, don’t be fooled. They see all the British defeats of La Belle France as English perfidy, but to them all the UK is England.
What you better not let on though, is that most of those nasty English who beat up the French and grabbed an Empire were Irish, Scottish or Welsh. You hardly let us get an handhold, although we did have to pay for its upkeep when you had grabbed the territory.
Nothing, it seems, changes.
132 - Hegel and Lieberman are no go IMO. Hagel is old and opposed the Iraq war. Lieberman would make the base even harder to win over and not help massively with independents. To my mind the VP should be helping clinch the base with McCain reaching out to independents.
Would look at Romney again though. He has been very on message since losing and raised money for McCain. He is fairly youthful and energetic but more importantly he compliments McCain well. A former Governor and strong on domestic issues. If the economy looks like being a big issue can see Romney being the VP candidate. Romney is good as well in that he would appeal to independents and the base, and he might help a bit with Michigan.
Mike
I was at Lords too in the Tavern stand adjacent to the Mound stand. Where were you?
I’d give Romney a much better chance than Huckabee, especially after the latter’s embarrassing episode recently. Much more likely to be neither though, Crist seems well placed.
138. You think he would help with independents?
All the pundits seem to be promoting him as a the voice for the conservatives.
I do get the governor bit though. From what I gather people do like a governor on ticket somewhere since they have proper executive experience.
Any future bets on the market are restricted by my overall book. I do have room for an extra candidate and once I get Jindal sorted it would give me fairly substatntive room for an addition. After that though I’d probably start to look at the percentage margins and consider whether to leave the book with an ok profit.
I will bear Romney in mind though I’ve always been reluctant.
140 - The question mark over Crist is his singleness. Ridiculuous but it is an issue in the US.
See this article for a flavour of what might happen.
http://www.orlandoweekly.com/columns/story.asp?id=10990
137. Witan, it’s true that we Celts won most of England’s victories. The Welsh bowmen at Crecy, Poitiers and Agincourt, at Trafalgar one-third of the RN crews and one quarter of the Captains were Scots, Irish troops were very much to the fore in stopping the German breakthrough in March 1918 and so on. At Culloden, without the treachery of the evil Campbells and the Lowland troops, we Jacobites would have won the day.
Still, we portray ourselves as victims of English perfidy very well, and the French hate you lot more than they hate anyone else, even the Yanks. :0)
Popped into Henley constituency today. No sign of any political activity. That said I did only go 400 yards into it to buy some compost, and did not even see a house.
The reports here suggest that there are very few LD activists in Crewe. Any news from Henley? It is a huge constituency and the town of Henley itself is only a small part. I think the LDs are stronger in Thame… any sightings?
143 - “hate”, “treachery”, “evil” - so mild in their language, the Scots are.
141 - On economic issues I think he could sound very competent and experienced. Admittedly his campaign was a damp squib. It is a bit bizarre he has all the attributes you would look for in building an ideal candidate but somehow it just doesn’t all fit together. I certainly think he has wider appeal than say Huckabee. He won in Massachusetts for a start (admittedly on a different policy platform) and a Republican doesn’t win there without independents. He also meets the do no harm rule which Huckabee may not. The wildcard is his personal relationship with McCain.
134 I have never seen anything at 1/2000 with a few days to go…mad, just mad. I checked by pulling up the slip and there it was.
Huck has been a bit lucky for me on the VP market. I was in the US when I became aware that Huck wasnt exactly the Jesus brigade’s man and I could see the overlap between him and McCain. The two, McCain in particular refused to rule him out as a VP pick, so I got on early on the VP market. Huck came in a lot and gave me a lot of lay off room.
Then news came through that McCain was apparently going to boot him into touch….
The general view on PP over recent weeks seems to be that McCain could well beat Obama in November. However, Obama is favourite. Now that Clinton’s virtually out of the way, Sporting’s 16-18.5 on their 0-10-25 index looks very buyable at 18.5, although it may drop again once the contest proper gets going. Buying Obama seems to be a better bet than selling McCain?
145. Describing the Campbells as evil and treacherous is being mild. After a couple of single malts I froth at the mouth and start shooting at the lights at the thought of them. As a religious man, of course, I don’t swear …:0)
149 - “Describing the Campbells as evil and treacherous is being mild. After a couple of single malts I froth at the mouth and start shooting at the lights at the thought of them. As a religious man, of course, I don’t swear …:0)”
I am sure that Gordon says the same of Wendy Alexander
Gordon Brown was screwed when he was caught on camera, sitting behind blair, picking his nose and eating the contents. That could always be rolled out at a date of choice.
However, the media got annoyed when they felt he played them.
142
Very good point; thanks for that.
149. The Campbells…. the Libdems of the 18th century?
Perhaps Nick Palmer, when he returns from Crewe, will comment on some information revealed today. This is that one of Labour’s agents in Nottingham/Nottinghamshire (Alex Norris), who is a former £9,000 pa pupil of MAnchetser Grammar School was one of the top hatted toffs stalking David Cameron. In short a “toff” playing a “toff” in Labour’s class war.
Nick Palmer claimed to have no idea about the background of the Conservative candidate, so does he condone this behaviour? He must surely know Alex “the toff” quite well. Did Nick Palmer distribute “toff leaflets”? Dis he join in the suggestion that the Conservative is a paedophile supporter because as a barrister he has defended people accused of this crime?
Does he seriously believe that a multi millionaire sports figure, with a vast Cheshire estate can be described in Labour’s Crewe terms as “one of Us”. Or is it because that the foul mouthed “Sir” Alex Ferguson, loses his millionaire status because he is from Glasgow?
BTW, Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody Kneaffy was on radio today. Well briefed on her class attacks, she hit the buffers whn asked about her late mother’s home in the Barbican! She is not a chip off theold block.
153 - come on! Ming is not that old!
another one back from C&N…..for those looking for orange diamonds you will not see any (we probably used all of them up in South Lakeland the other week!), because they are using Elizabeth Shenton ones with a nice picture of the candidate, and there are more of those around than the Dunwoody “one of us” posters.
Dropped off loads of leaflets over the weekend, in a wide variety of areas, and rest asured that there is plenty of LibDem activity.
What surprised me was how Labour have held on for so long, a real tribute to Gwynneth D………the Nantwich bits remind me of Knutsford, and some of the Crewe bits are very pleasant. OK there are also others which are more of a challenge, but overall, aspiring away from Labour.
So, what of the LD challenge? The News of the World 14% is plain silly……..double it and you’re about there. This is for Timpson to lose (I know there is no originality in that statement), but I think the Cons are sufficiently motivated to turn out in numbers on Thursday (I also note that the weather forecast is for a dry day with some sunshine). I can see the LibDems coming second in both parts of the constituency, but there is still work to be done.
Now off to the pub.
re 66 yes then all children should have the opportunity for their fathers to be involved in their upbringing whether the couple are boringly heterosexual, separated, divorced or a pair of way out les**ians.
156. I wonder if we can get Eric Pickles to come and sort out Westmorland and Lonsdale Conservative Association…
just a final thought………..a good banter moment was when one resident asked if I was and Ind, no I replied and I asked why…..well this young man (very early 20’s) wanted to meet the Ind candidate and give her a kiss!…..we all know of politicians desire to kiss babies and shake mother’s hands (wrong way round for my preferences), but are there any other known times when residents wanted to kiss the candidate?
FA Cup Portsmouth & Cardiff
Championship Bristol City & Hull (Watford k.o.’d by Hull)
forget League One
League Two Stockport & Rochdale
clearly the LibDems have something going for us (should add Liverpool)
re 91 you know that if you were to ask Brown about that interview now he’d dispute ever having said the quote you mention.
am I right in thinking that the Scots only joined the Union in the first place because they had bankrupted themselves with their ideas of imperial expansion in the late 17th, early 18th century?
161. Dreams of empire… Darien…. Rockall…
I think the real reason was that the local power-brokers left Scotland for tastier opportunities down south. Nothing changes.
re 139 I was in Compton Upper. My son is a member and he has two seats there.
150 I cant keep track of Scotch bigotry.
Who is it they hate? The English? The Irish? The Catholics? The Lowlanders? The East Coasters? The West Coasters? The Scottish Conservatives?
After Irish ot independence, they turned on eachother in civil war, drove the Jews out, suppported Nazi Germany and remained in isolation & poverty for 70 years.
After Scottish independence, they will turn their English hatred inwards. They must fund their own unemployment, including the many who used to serve in the British military… and sink in their Socialism and random hatred.
Its ironic that Scottish republicans would do the job the Irish republicans had been trying to do for decades.
161 The Union arose because the King of Scotland became the King of England.
161
Yes
The illfated Darien settlement iirc…
165 - and the United Kingdom will still continue after political Independence.
165. The act of union was a hundred years after the papist traitor James IV of Scotland became James I of England.
164.P.G.Wodehouse had it spot on:
“It’s not difficult to distinguish between a ray of sunshine and a scotsman with a grudge.”
I think it’s traditional, like bagpipes droning and moaning away.
165 wrong one - it was James VI
Re 157, Chris A “re 66 yes then all children should have the opportunity for their fathers to be involved in their upbringing whether the couple are boringly heterosexual, separated, divorced or a pair of way out les**ians.”
Fair enough.
128 The act of Union can be undone without affecting the other nations.
The EU has not stood ’shoulder to shoulder’ on Kosovo. They have not officailly recognised Kosovo in a legal sense. They have fudged it. Some nations have their own separatist movements that they wish to deny hope to. It only takes one country to veto.
There was an interesting article in the FT recently on the negative implications of Kosovo for the independence of Scotland.
http://www.minorites.org/article.php?IDA=18633
The argument for those rejecting the thrust of this article seems to have been based on a distinction: the rest of the UK would be cooperative. In the words of lovely Peter Cairns SNP, a thoughful poster on UK Polling, England is not Serbia!
However, as already pointed out the area of dispute is not confined to the partition itself but a whole set of related interests.
How can Scotland not expect England/Wales/NI to fight for the interests of those remaining in the Union, to whom they have still have a duty, and to act for the benefit of those who have left.
As someone has already pointed out, the current situation is viewed by many as trial separation and they usually lead to divorces. But divorces are always messy unless both sides come to an agreement.
US VP Stakes - Jim Webb
The notion that Webb “ruled himself out” as a potential Vice Presidential nominee is not supported by the facts.
What he said (see #33) is that he is “not that interested in becoming Vice President”. Which is NOT a “General Sherman” statement (”if nominated I will not run, if elected I wil not serve”) by a long shot.
Also note that today’s “Parade” magazine, a supplement that appears in +400 Sunday newspapers across the US, features a full front-page portrait of Sen. Webb with an accoupaning article on “leadership”.
So it’s premature to scratch him from your dance card.
Re 160, Chris A “re 91 you know that if you were to ask Brown about that interview now he’d dispute ever having said the quote you mention.”
Which is why Sky keep the tapes ready to roll as a “reminder”!
172 - Reality check. If Scotland secedes from the Union do you think Eng/Wales/NI will veto their entry into the EU? If so, why? It is a possiblity but there seems no motive and therefore highly unlikely.
If/when separation occurs and Scotland applies to join the EU, what are the odds that Brussells ’suggests’ that their oil becomes a ‘common European resource’ - like their fisheries?
158 For the promise of a pie, a pint and a piece of fruitcake, probably.
175. Scotland will have to negotiate their own terms into the EU, it might not be pretty. Scotland needs the EU more then the EU needs Scotland, not a good bargaining position to be in. Remember, other member states have internal problems with regions wishing for independence, some of them violent, they could see an independent Scotland, with fast tracked entry to the EU club as encouragement for other separatists.
The Darien scheme was undone by the hostility of the English colonies in North America, and the policy of King William. Scotland was coerced, and its aristocracy bribed into the union, which was opposed by the vast majority of ordinary Scots. After the passage of the Act of Union, the Duke of Buccleugh was made Duke of Dover, with an income of over £3,000 a year, a fortune in those days. James VI was a Protestant, by the way, unlike his mother, Mary,Queen of Scots, who was judicially murdered by her cousin, Queen Elisabeth.
175
Scotland would of course have to take its share of the National Debt… and all the pension laibilities of Scots.
The latter could be interesting.. Who pays for Scots Westminster MPs pesnions? The Scots of course.
143
‘and the french hate you lot more than they hate anyone else,even the yanks’
Are you drunk or just saying something that you hope might be true and suit your own chippie prejudice?
You are talking absolute bollocks.
175. If you are following the whole argument, that has already been made apparent.
164. Supported “Nazi Germany”? Proportionately they lost more men than the English fighting the Germans in WW2. The majority both support Unionist Parties and would not support Scottish independence based on recent polls. While as an Englishman living in Scotland I find a small minority of the Scots are anti English there are not a lot of bigots. There are, of course many who want independence for emotive/romantic reasons.
I think its important to remember that there quite possibly wouldn’t have been a British Empire if it were not for the Scots. They were overrepresented in the ranks of East India Company to an astonishing degree.
181. Of course I’m drunk, it’s half past nine. What a silly question! Even so, the French have no love for the English. It’s indicative that the French called syphilis the English disease, and the English traditionally called it the French disease. Says it all, really.
182 - Well thanks for that explanation, really clear. I understand the argument about Kosovo. There would be a big difference with Scotland. NI/Eng/Wales would agree to Independence.
Let’s think about the scenario realistically. Scotland only becomes independent if it votes for it in a referendum. If it does so the Westminster government would I believe accept the Scottish right to self-determination and allow them to secede. There would be hard bargaining over resources but an agreement would be reached.
If Eng/NI/Wales agreed there is no reason why the EU would not. The EU will not want to exclude Scotland, it gains nothing from it whatsoever. I support the Union and hope it remains but this idea that the EU would be a block is fanciful.
180 - and a share of the assets as well.
Countries with sepratist issues, like Spain would veto EU membership for a sepratist Scotland.
Scotland would need another benefactor. Russia? China?
174 What struck me apart from the interview itself, is how terrible Brown looks now in comparison to last October. I think his health must be suffering.
163
Mike I’m an associate member, full membership should come up in 2010. It might make it a doubly wonderful 12 months!(If labour hold on that long)
No other nation would be remotely interested in getting involved in a dispute between England, and a Scotland that wanted independence. The Scottish Parliament would have to negotiate the best terms it could.
185 No it doesn’t.
We are the nation they love to hate. We love to hate them. At the bottom of such resentment is an admiration. We both resent and admire each others victories.
187. Assets?? Another Scot dumped all those on a Gold bear market a few years ago.
178
Are you kidding?
The EU will accept anyone,(they accept Bulgaria and Romania but not Scotland!)even when it comes to key financial issues such as the criteria of joining the €uro (which both Belgium & Italy failed) they just bend or suspend the rules.
Separatist issues…. didn’t Orkney recently pipe up that they wanted to decide their own future? Even perhaps looking east to Norway? Scotland could have its own separatist issues.
Wouldn’t that be fun.
183 The Irish lost more men than England fighting Nazi Gemrany? Really?
Dont get me wrong. I understand there were plenty of Irish fighting in the British Army. Their contribution is to their credit but in no way changes the shameful actions of their Government.
192 - please - keep him
185
You must be drunk to come out with crap like that,sounds like the typical small minded boigotry of someone that probably doesn’t even have a passport.
193. They rejected the UK as whole, and then only let us in after Heath grovelled and handed over the most valuable fishing waters in the northern hemisphere.
Keiran.
Scotland will need to get British cooperation to persuade some reluctant countries with their own separatists movements that independence for Scotland will have no negative impact on them.
At the same time a British Government, intent on reelection, dependent only on votes in the remaining countries will be arguing about the oil/gas reserves with Scotland.
What was your phrase? Reality check.
193 “The EU will accept anyone”
Really?
The EU wouldnt even recognised Kosovo as a country let alone let them join.
192 You are too kind. [Perhaps he could be used in negotiations].
192 Turkey?
200 Is Scotland more like Quebec (which of course has not managed to secede yet from Canada) or Slovakia (which of course did manage to peacefully secede from Czechoslovakia)?
The difference between Quebec and Slovakia seems to me to be that Quebec is wealthy and has a lot to lose if secession goes wrong, Slovakia was dirt-poor and had nothing to lose.
IMO, Scotland is similar to Quebec — & I think the same course of events will happen — more powers will be devolved to Edinburgh within an increasingly looser United Kingdom.
“Slovakia (which of course did manage to peacefully secede from Czechoslovakia)?”
Slovakia for many years had a very nasty nationalistic government that oppressed the Hungarian minority in the south of the country. They were nasty to the Roma too.
188.
Dont see how Russia or China would get Scotland in to the EU.
UN, maybe.
Cannot see how it would be in their interests, but it would bring down the house prices, which in Edinburgh, are mad.
No doubt you are right SBS.
But the question is: under what circumstances do a people vote to secede?
193 you mean Shetlands no? The Shetlanders I understand are more Norwegian than Scottish. Given the choice, what would you go for?
A rich state like Norwey with a healthy surplus and generous & funded pensions & health care?
Or a Socialist Scotland with hateful Glaswegian politics, the second highest deficit in the world and a second rate health service?
198 - The Kosovo and Basque analogies don’t work. Thy are seperatist movements that are opposed by their nation states. There is no chance of a Basque referendum. If Scotland vote for independence the rest of the UK will grant them it and not oppose it.
As I say upthread the UK will come to an agreement about the practicalities. The English will want a fair deal but will be happy to let Scotland go if that is what they vote for. What does England gain from Scotland being excluded from the EU? Absolutely nothing. What does the EU gain from Scotland being excluded? Absolutely nothing. They won’t be excluded. However it is impossible for either of us to prove our cases unless it actually happens.
Re 194, A Man named bolted Horse “Dont get me wrong. I understand there were plenty of Irish fighting in the British Army. Their contribution is to their credit but in no way changes the shameful actions of their Government.”
Which ones would those be?
There were many in Ireland with anti British feelings and they may well have enjoyed the Nazi’s but I am not aware of any thing the Irish government did.
Ireland remained neutral. It had no choice nor did it make any difference. The Germans sank their shipping anyway.
What they did do as a neutral country was to inter any combatant that turned up in Ireland. I understand German ones were put in special camps whilst British ones were given train tickets to Belfast whilst being asked not to leave.
197. There, there, JohnF. Why don’t you have a nice cup of tea, and settle down. Here’s nice bedtime story for you.
When God was creating the world, He came to Scotland. He said to the Angel Gabriel, “Now Gabriel, We will create a beautiful country, with mountain and forest, and seas and rivers teeming with fish. We will make a race of strong men, fierce in war, and lovely women. We will give them barley, from which they will make a wonderful drink, called uisge beatha. We will give them riches in oil.” And the Angel Gabriel said “Lord, I think that Thou art spoiling the Scots.” And God answered, “Ah, Gabriel, thou only thinkest that because thou doest not know who We are going to give them for neighbours!”
re 200, Sally C “192 You are too kind. [Perhaps he could be used in negotiations].”
What? As in you take him back and you can have all the oil, even in Dorset please please please!
Re 203, SBS “Slovakia for many years had a very nasty nationalistic government that oppressed the Hungarian minority in the south of the country. They were nasty to the Roma too.”
Nasty to the Roma? I thought that was mandatory in that part of the world?
204 Nobody said Russia nd China would get Scotland in the EU.
It said “Scotland would need another benefactor. Russia? China?”
Russia funds other unfeasible states like Transnistria.
They could fund Scotland too if Scotland lets Russia have some bases there.
Were I Scottish and observed English politicians discussing ways of making a possible separation as difficult as possible, then I think I’d be even more determined to dissolve the Union.
206. Shetland? You’re probably right, though I’m none too sure how they split with the Orkneys, and yes they do have a strong affinity with Norway.
They also have quite a lot of ‘Scotlands’ oil.
214. There was talk in Shetland about joining with Norway, until they heard how much drink cost over there. It then died the death!
Re 209, Fergusmac ““Ah, Gabriel, thou only thinkest that because thou doest not know who We are going to give them for neighbours!””
Also back from the C&N trail (and no, Peter Golds, I’ve never heard of Alex Norris), where I spent three hours doing a third canvass in part of Crewe off the Nantwich Road and an hour blitzing with Tamsin. Notes:
- My general impression is that the big parties are repeating the London tactic of focusing on their strong areas, though unlike Outer London I don’t think the Nantwich part is larger than Crewe? There were several LD posters up but only one Tory that I saw plus a few dozen Labour. On the other hand, Labour and the Tories were completely dominating the air war. One fed-up household had put all the literature they’d had from everyone in the garden in a big plastic bag: loads from Labour and Tories, just one that looked LD. I didn’t see anyone from the other parties all day.
- Certainly no shortage of Labour helpers - the committee rooms were packed with people coming and going all day, including numerous MPs and a lot of Labour students, some of whom have been knocking themselves out for weeks (one perfectionist told me he’s canvassed the same long street seven times so as to get the contact rate up to 80% - not sure this was really the best use of his time but there you go).
- Crewe isn’t the desperate giant sink estate that some press commentary has implied - everywhere I went looked in reasonable nick and voters were civil and chatty.
- Nobody knew anything about the ‘paedophile’ thing and the general belief was that the Tories had made it up. The early Labour leaflets do indeed push the rough ‘one of us’ vs ‘one of them’ line, though the current ones have moved on to simply pushing Tamsin. The Tories have dodgy leaflets of their own - there’s an elaborate spoof newspaper which you have to read to discover it’s a Tory publication and not just a new local freebie, and they’ve dug out the ancient line about the LibDem handbook under the excited heading “EXCLUSIVE: LibDem tactics exposed”.
- Overall I got a fairly static impression compared with the earlier canvasses - some Labour difting to unsure and some unsure drifting to Labour. I don’t have enough info to predict, but some of the people who’d been there throughout thought there were a fair chance of edging it; one had bet £50 on it at 5-1.
208 I’ve heard tales about de Valera sending his condolences to the Nazi government on hearing of Hitler’s demise.
215 No it didnt.
they were reminded of the chips on shoulders, the arrogance, argumentative, aggressive, stinginess and the socialists.
thenthey remembered the tribal, hateful bigots who drive out their best people and how Glasgow has the lowest male life expectancy in europe.
Besides scottish women against norwegian women…no contest.
217. You missed your vocation Nick, Hans Christian Andersen had nothing on you.
Re 217, Nick Palmer, Many thanks for the update.
Re 208, Ian C “I’ve heard tales about de Valera sending his condolences to the Nazi government on hearing of Hitler’s demise.”
Well, the man was in my view a sh1t of the highest order so that would not surprise me. That said, have you any evidence?
Re my 221, the reply to Ian C should have been to 218!
218 It is not tale.
The Irish with their Celtic supremacy found a soulmate in Hitlers Aryan supremacy. De Valera’s speach abour Celtic children and Celtic maidens could have been written by Goebbels.
Then there was the refueling of nazi U-boats…the landing of Nazi spies…the driving out of the Jews…the refusal to permit damaged British ships harbour in Irish ports…
I understand 200,000 Irishmen were so disgusted by their own government that they volunteered to serve in the British Forces. God Bless’em.
Glad I went To Gloucester Nick - Super game which we won by 1 point with a Goode drop goal
Re 223, A Man Named bolted Horse “Then there was the refueling of nazi U-boats…the landing of Nazi spies…the driving out of the Jews…the refusal to permit damaged British ships harbour in Irish ports…”
Do you have a reference for that?
223 - Just think if we hadn’t forcibly occupied Ireland for centuries and only left (most of it) after a bloody war we might have had another ally during WWII.
Re 226, Keiran “223 - Just think if we hadn’t forcibly occupied Ireland for centuries and only left (most of it) after a bloody war we might have had another ally during WWII.”
Er no. The only thing Ireland could usefully supply to the war effort at the time was manpower and it did that anyway by, as a Man Named Bolted Horse has said, 200,000 of them joining the British army. Otherwise it would have been just more territory to defend.
224 Leicester Tigers!!!!…the comeback team!!!! Great game on Sky, even beat watching the cricket………..
217. We have to put it through the NickPalmerese converter at “google translation”.
When nick says:
“who’d been there throughout thought there were a fair chance of edging it”
Comes out:
“Oh god, we are F*@ked, we are all F*@ked, my god the ship is sinking and they arent enough lifeboats, every man for himself and God have mercy on every single one of our souls”
212.
I bow to your knowledge.
Where is Transnistria! Population? GDP etc?
And why would the Russians want to have a base in Scotland? Shannon Airport used to serve them well.
225 I think I saw some documentary some time ago. Ireland’s Hidden History or Ireland’s Secret History, something like that. Very interesting.
Re 231, A Man Named Bolted Horse “225 I think I saw some documentary some time ago. Ireland’s Hidden History or Ireland’s Secret History, something like that. Very interesting.”
Ah, I see. I wonder if there is anything useful about it on the web?
230 Transnistria can be found here, on google
Copy the word “Transnistria” into the search field and press the “Search” button.
217. I believe he works for Vernon Coaker. Was there any mention of the ‘con man’ jibe or the midnight ‘conservative’ canvassing at all Nick?
229 Very amusing, Gaz, but those of us who come to the Site for the betting rather than the tubthumping have, over the years, worked out whose testimonies should be treated with respect.
Nick is unquestionably partisan, but he is not dishonest, and the punters here take account of his reports accordingly.
There was no refuelling of german U boats
There was condolences sent to the Germans on Hitler’s death
Ireland’s state neutrality was bent towards the Allies, even if in the case of De Valera himself he was ropey. If it was strongly neutral at government level amongst the wider public there was a general soft sympathy for the allied side
Irish republicans did work with Abwher and others on a plan for a German takeover, including the drawing up of lists of undesirables, jews included.
Very large numbers of Irish men south of the border did join up with the British Army. A total of 150k from North & South. Bear in mind Northern Ireland didnt have general conscription.
Are we expecting another Opinion Poll? Sporting Index have again suspended their GE Seats market, usually a sign that a poll is on its way.
And by the way, there is absolutely fecking no chance of a Russian military base in Scotland.
Now wise up.
237. They are just tired of you buying Tory seats every 5 minutes Peter, their ZX Spectrum central computer system can’t keep up.
I heard they are upgrading to a Commodore 64….
Re 238, Yokel “And by the way, there is absolutely fecking no chance of a Russian military base in Scotland.”
I was going to point that out myself, but felt I did not quite have the level of manners required
131
I think there is also a complication as to whether the ’scottish’ oil, is rather ’shetland’ oil.
http://www.newstatesman.com/200704020064
235 we all enjoy Nicks posts, but his canvassing results are legendary, no matter how bad it gets, his results are always positive….
Nick is big enough to take a bit of mild teasing….
238 Perhaps its just a question of a sufficient one way cash in a Barnettolstova Formula
If not Russia maybe China…
or maybe Ireland? Ireland is rich. They could work out a O’Barnett Formula
226
We didn’t.
233.
Thank you for that. GDP seems to be circa £250m, £500 per capita and inflation 10%.
Think it will be hard to get this one to fly.
241 From your link…
“Shetland, along with Orkney, only became part of Scotland in 1469, when they were pawned to the Scottish crown as part of a dowry payment from the king of Norway and Denmark to James III of Scotland. The agreement made was that once the full dowry was paid the islands would be returned to Denmark, and until that time Norse laws would remain in place. But Scotland reneged on the deal”
Interesting. New information. Its why I visit pbc.
Clegg to back Tories in Hung Parliament? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/liberaldemocrats/1982920/Lib-Dems-Nick-Clegg-will-back-Tories-in-hung-Parliament.html
218. Dev went in person to the German legation in Dublin. It was the correct thing to do. And a brave thing.
As for driving out Jews, you should read Ulysses and find out why Ireland is the only country never to have persecuted the Jews…
Re 248, Rid Crosby “218. Dev went in person to the German legation in Dublin. It was the correct thing to do. And a brave thing.”
Correct and brave? How so?
National identity is a funny thing [for the benefit of JohnF and Bolted Horse, 'funny' can refer to a sense of humour. Most of my English friends have one, and Benedict has plenty to spare - perhaps he could lend you some :0)]. I have a friend who claims to be a Yorkshireman, but he does not know the words to ‘Sam, Sam, pick oop tha moosket’. I have very serious doubts about the authenticity of his claim. I imagine that when Yorkshire becomes independent, he might be refused a passport.
248 the documentary gave the numbers of Jews before Irish Free State and at the time of production, the final number was a mere 3000. They said there was an IRA campaign to drive them out during late 20s and 30s.
Just because it wasnt done by the state, doesnt mean the state didnt do it. The Irish state and the IRA are intertwinned. Fena foil and Fena Gail (cant be bothered with spelling) are the old ira factions - and I rememebe reading a story in the paper about an ex-Irism PM caught by the Royal Navy running weapons to the IRA. Very small article. No followup. It said he was released because they were “intended only for use in emergency”.
But hey, maybe the Jews left at their own accord(?)
251- yes, Ireland is one of only two countries in the EU where party politics is based on who your grandparents tried to murder.
250 Humour? Its probably something to do with my view of small minded racists. I dont find them amusing.
Pathetic? Yes. Amusing? No.
Ireland & WWII
There are plenty of sources, but one of the best is “In Time of War” by Robert Fisk (THE RF, but pbers allergic to the journo should read his Irish book BEFORE dismissing it).
The Irish Free State aka Eire indeed was the only member of the British Commonwealth that was officially neutral during World War II.
Irish neutrality was not totally “neutral”. For example:
–thousands of “southern” Irish served in the British forces (though 200k is an exageration; actual number was likely less than 50k)
–Irish agriculture & migrants were significant contributors to British war economy
–whereas Axis airforce & navy who ended up on Irish soil were interned for the duration, Allied personnel were given every reasonable opportunity to travel rejoin their units via Northern Ireland
–strong cooperation between British & Irish military intelligence, counter-intelligence & police
–when the Nazi’s bombed Belfast, the Dublin fire brigade raced north to give emergency assistance, an incident that has entered folklore on both sides of the Border.
On the other hand, the Irish government under Eamon de Valera was adament in maintaining Ireland’s neturality. This policy has strong, overwhelming support from the Irish people, a fact noted by a wide variety of contemporary observers.
De Valera believed that keeping up appearances as to diplomatic niceties was critical, esp. since in actuality Ireland’s neutrality was skewed toward Britain. So the German & Japanese embassies were accredited for the duration of WWII. And has been noted, Dev went to the absurd & nauseating length of actually extending condolences to the Nazi rump government clinging upon the death of Adolf Hitler.
From the British perspective, the worst part of Irish neutrality (aside from seeing a former colony that was still one of the King’s dominions NOT fighting on the King’s side) was the question of the Irish treaty ports.
As part of the Anglo-Irish Treaty that created the Irish Free State, Britain retained the right to use a number of strategic ports on the western coast of Ireland. However, as part of a new agreement in the late 1930s, this right was abrogated.
When WWII began in 1930s, the British rued this decision, because the former treaty ports would greatly aided the Royal Navy in operations against German U-boats in the North Atlantic. So the UK asked Ireland to let the RN use the ports. But Dev refused, believeing this would be a clear breech of neutrality.
Brtish politicos, press & the public got very worked up over this issue. And you cannot blame them. The one would got worked up the most was Winston Churchill, thanks to the nexus of his naval, Irish & imperial connections with the problem. WSC veered from threatening invasion, to offering to cede NI (”a Nation once again”) and finally to outright condemnation of de Valera & all his works. Which has been pretty much received wisdom on the subject in the UK ever since.
“A Man Named Bolted Horse”, try doing a little research before posting “urban myths” here…
Viscount Cranborne, the British Secretary of State for Dominion Affairs, wrote a letter to the British War Cabinet regarding Irish-British collaboration during 1939-1945.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_neutrality_during_World_War_II#The_Cranborne_report
“They agreed to our use of Lough Foyle for naval and air purposes. The ownership of the Lough is disputed, but the Southern Irish authorities are tacitly not pressing their claim in present conditions and are also ignoring any flying by our aircraft over the Donegal shore of the Lough, which is necessary in certain wind conditions to enable flying boats to take off the Lough.
They have agreed to use by our aircraft based on Lough Erne of a corridor over Southern Irish territory and territorial waters for the purpose of flying out to the Atlantic.
They have arranged for the immediate transmission to the United Kingdom Representative’s Office in Dublin of reports of submarine activity received from their coast watching service.
They arranged for the broadening of reports by their Air observation Corps of aircraft sighted over or approaching Southern Irish territory. (This does not include our aircraft using the corridor referred to in (b) above.)
They arranged for the extinction of trade and business lighting in coastal towns where such lighting was alleged to afford a useful landmark for German aircraft.
They have continued to supply us with meteorological reports.
They have agreed to the use by our ships and aircraft of two wireless direction-finding stations at Malin Head.
They have supplied particulars of German crashed aircraft and personnel crashed or washed ashore or arrested on land.
They arranged for staff talks on the question of co-operation against a possible German invasion of Southern Ireland, and close contact has since been maintained between the respective military authorities.
They continue to intern all German fighting personnel reaching Southern Ireland. On the other hand, though after protracted negotiations, Allied service personnel are now allowed to depart freely and full assistance is given in recovering damaged aircraft.
Recently, in connection with the establishment of prisoner of war camps in Northern Ireland, they have agreed to return or at least intern any German prisoners who may escape from Northern Ireland across the border to Southern Ireland.
They have throughout offered no objection to the departure from Southern Ireland of persons wishing to serve in the United Kingdom Forces nor to the journey on leave of such persons to and from Southern Ireland (in plain clothes).
They have continued to exchange information with our security authorities regarding all aliens (including Germans) in Southern Ireland.
They have (within the last few days) agreed to our establishing a Radar station in Southern Ireland for use against the latest form of submarine activity.”
It is now acknowledged that D-day would not have been possibly without Irish meteorological reports…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Met_%C3%89ireann
Re 251, A Man Named Bolted Horse “248 the documentary gave the numbers of Jews before Irish Free State and at the time of production, the final number was a mere 3000. They said there was an IRA campaign to drive them out during late 20s and 30s.”
What has anti sematism got to do with being in league with Nazi Germany? There were plenty (and still are) who were not Nazi’s. (Not that I condone such behavior BTW).
Re 252, SBS “251- yes, Ireland is one of only two countries in the EU where party politics is based on who your grandparents tried to murder.”
And the other one is?
256 - The Irish Free State was set up in 1918, when Ireland at last got independence from its dominant imperial neighbour to the east. Ireland then descended into civil war.
The “other country” I referred to got independence from its dominant imperial neighbour to the east at pretty much the same time, and also descended into civil war. The two sides in the war later became two of the three main parties in that country today. No more clues.
254 Thank you mr shanty. I take your notes and add them to what I know…
255 Its wiki.
Re 257, SBS, You are being a git. (And you know it
)
Finland?
249.
i) it would be easy to kick a man when he’s down… Dev was braver than that…
ii) Hempel, the German ambassador (who was a career diplomat, not a Nazi) had behaved impeccably throughout the War, and Dev’s visit was more in acknowledgement of that fact than “grief” at Hitler’s passing..
iii) the symbolism of his visit was important. Irish neutrality in War was to be equally asserted in peacetime. Dev’s visit was an assertion of Irish sovereignity.
iv) It is the normal protocol. The US expressed condolences to the Soviet Union on the death of Stalin in 1953. Could anyone seriously read political support of either Stalin or Communism into such an act? Thought not… Neither then should this canard be ascribed to Dev…
257 I understand Boris Johnson’s Great Grandfather was chopped up for supporting the wrong side in Turkey. Still, Turkey isnt in the EU and I’m doubt if there is a political party in turkey that still wears the fez.
Re 258, A Man Named Bolted Horse “255 Its wiki.”
Which means that the contents are more argued over and thoroughly checked than any book.
259 - yes. I’m being a git and it is Finland.
I think I’ll duck out now, as Rod is on about the war etc.
255 - “Irish meteorological reports”
From my experience of Ireland, that would be “rain, rain and more rain.”
Re 260, Rod Crosby, Fair enough.
Talking about career civil servants who were not Nazi’s I have heard rumours that the head of German intelligence was such a man who never tried to hard. Obviously we are not talking about the Gestapo but spooks.
Re 263, SBS “259 - yes. I’m being a git and it is Finland.”
I only got that because of your connections there! It was a guess.
“I think I’ll duck out now, as Rod is on about the war etc.”
Really? he thought he got away with it
re 178 given that the conspiracy to murder was a capital offence until very recently then MQS got what she deserved for doing away with her second husband.
265. You are thinking of Canaris, who was head of the Abwehr
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Canaris
254 It is probably an Irish tradition to downplay Irishmen serving in the British Military.
In Ireland, WW1 war memorials are neglected - or worse. WW1 Veterans were tortured and murdered by the IRA. I suspect Irish would rather ignore the fact than acknowledge it. So downplaying the numbers is probably the best we would get.
The figures I have heard 50,000 (from you), 100,000 and 200,000…they vary. For a couple of reasons. First, the Irish arent “proud” or dont want to recognise the fact.
Secondly, it is probably a dificult number to quantify. There have always been many Irish on the British mainland. My granny came over from Dublin in the 30s. So who is to say if an Irishman serving in the British Army was from Ireland - or from England.
Lots of talk about Scottish independence and the oil fields and whether Scotland’s situation is more like Kosovo/Slovakia/Catalonia etc. The distinction people seem to be drawing wrt EU membership is that this is not revolutionary secession but would be a mutual agreement.
Doesn’t that imply that it would be a UK-wide referendum, that would require both a majority in Scotland (for Independence) and a majority in the UK (*including* Scotland) on Dissolution of the Union? If so, I think that is a bar too high…
262 Which means its views are dominated by those who have nothing else to do - or by those with an agenda.
88.”I think some people forget that once the Scots vote for Independence, the rest of the UK will be under no obligation tothem whatsoever in their subsequent negotiations and dealings.”
I think that point works both ways.
144.”143 - “hate”, “treachery”, “evil” - so mild in their language, the Scots are.”
If you think that’s bad, don’t visit a ConHom thread on anything Scottish.
148.Fergusmac, many years ago while working in a gift shop selling tartan goods, I came across a couple on their first trip to Scotland. They *timidly* asked if they could be shown the Campbell tartan. They were not aware of the history of the clan. They enthusiastically asked to see the tartan in a shop near Glencoe, the response was unprintable, and they were shown the door. They were horrified when I explained the historical significance of their request. Long memories in those parts, and some still think its very bad luck to give hospitality to a Campbell.
So Clegg would back Cameron in a hung Parliament. (Telegraph.) I wonder what that will do to the LD vote in Crewe & Nantwich?
So Clegg would back Cameron in a hung Parliament. (Telegraph.) I wonder what that will do to the LD vote in Crewe & Nantwich?
re 252 I imagine the UK is the other one given the Tories and Labour’s shameful refusal to giver the Northern Irish sensible parties and policies to vote for.
275 - no.
273.So soon after Alex Salmond’s offer….
18 - Marcus, there is not a cat in hells chance that there will be another winter of discontent mass strike action before the next General Election. Why? For starters the crucial anti-strike legislation introduced by the Thatcher government is still in force, but more crucially do you really think loads of indebted workers are going to have the ability to strike for a long period of time? I’m sure a spouse of a striking worker would thank them when the bills continue to roll in and they’re worried about job security. The government and employers knows this, hence why they can get away with 3/4% nominal pay increases and wages declining in real terms for your average worker - welcome to the mess that is UK plc 2008!
I’m looking forward to the early hours of Friday morning - apparently the BBC have got a bye-election special running from 12.50am (once This Week has finished?) until after the declaration - think it is thought it will be about 2.30 am - anybody else heard about this? Anybody know when the Beeb last did a bye-election special - the last one I can recall was Wirral South - I think it went out of fashion after the more normal post 1997 swings?
If the Beeb bring out the wretched Anthony King (or Bob Worcester for that matter) and their coverage is as bad as that in the early hours of 2nd May, then I can’t wait for the flood of negative comments on here - me included!
If there’s any Schadenfreude in the next election, the Lib Dems will gain Swansea West by a margin of 75 votes
Scotland: We have voted to secede.
UK: Fine.
Scotland: We will join the EU.
UK: Fine.
Scotland: Will you support our membership.
UK: Why should we?
Scotland: Because it is us, your kith and kin.
UK: Who is us? Are you part of the UK? No? Well your problems are not ours then.
Scotland: We are proudly independent and will not grovel.
UK: Fine.
Scotland: Our whole independence plan is dependent upon joining the EU.
UK: Fine.
Scotland: We will do it without you then.
UK: Fine…. but have you thought any more about that separation settlement?
Scotland: We gave you our demands.
UK: Fine. But until there is an equitable settlement for us we cannot support you, and if we have no settlement we must insist the EU does not admit you. Now about that share of the national debt……..
re 268, Rod Crosby, yes I was thinking of him, and no I had not realised that by the time war broke out he was pretty much both on our side and working with us.
Shame the Nazi’s figured it out. The head of an intelligence service is a good place to have one of your agents!
275 - The Conservative Party actively organise in Northern Ireland and get about 1% of the vote. If the lovely people of Northern Ireland wanted sensible people to vote for they would get them. As it is they vote for intransigent bigots and killers. I still find it a scary situation. Peace process or no peace process.
Re 271, A Man named Bolted Horse “262 Which means its views are dominated by those who have nothing else to do - or by those with an agenda.”
And the difference with a book is what?
Seriously have you read a serious book where you could not detect some sort of “agenda”?
98 and 217 - thanks once again to Nick, and Marquee Mark for a Tory perspective on C&N - will be going through a part of the constituency next Saturday, when hopefully I’ll be able to say, entering “Timpson Land”!
110 Philippe
There you go again with your moslem fixation.
Do you personally have any moslem friends?
If you do, what would they think of your posts?
Malcolm
Re 272, ChrisD “Long memories in those parts, and some still think its very bad luck to give hospitality to a Campbell.”
How does that affect soup sales?
BTW, have a reputed Stuart relationship and being a Conservative I am always suspicious of Campbell’s, particularly those who are called Alistair
This picture has to be seen to be believed, if fact it could do with being enlarged!
Picture of Unity
re 279 as I posted a few days ago C&N declared at 0231 in 1997 and 0220 in 2001.
287. There is always Baxter’s Benedict.
Re 281, Witan “UK: Fine. But until there is an equitable settlement for us we cannot support you, and if we have no settlement we must insist the EU does not admit you. Now about that share of the national debt……..”
I like the use of the word “fine” (as in “no actually, its not f*cking fine!”) and am amused by the negotiation tactics.
Tomorrow’s Sun suggests Gordie is going to be hit by a … you guessed it … Crewe’s missile.
289 - Thanks.
Re 290, ChrisD “287. There is always Baxter’s Benedict. :D”
And there I was for a brief moment thinking of Martin Baxter!
Re your 288, yes I saw that too. Very funny.
Re 292, David Roe. “Tomorrow’s Sun suggests Gordie is going to be hit by a … you guessed it … Crewe’s missile.”
Thats what I like about the Sun. So intelectual
287.Benedict the irony of that particular spin merchants surname was never lost on me.
Busy working on my family history project, got lots of Stewart’s and Grants. Looks like the the former turned out, but my Grants did not because their chief was vehemently against it, he returned the request from Bonnie Prince Charlie unopened. The same Grants were also the last clan to be called out, ironically over a political disagreement about a candidate. Something s never change.
Re 296, ChrisD “The same Grants were also the last clan to be called out, ironically over a political disagreement about a candidate. Something s never change. :D”
What is the significance of “called out”?
Alex Norris, the paid Labour “toff”, who was educated at the £9,000 per year Manchester Grammar School, is agent to the Labour MP for Gedling, a constituency that is incredibly close to Broxtowe.
Amazing that neighbouring MPs from the same party do not know each other’s agents.
Benedict It is a crib from the FO style I have come across, and it would be the FO who leads such negotiations as Scotland would, by then, be a foreign country. And those FO people are good at one thing, and that is screwing foreigners out of their money.
Of course members of the armed forces and organisations like the FO would probably be given the choice of where to place their allegiance. Would they like to go from an army to a paramilitary police, or the FO to the district office of the Scottish MInistry of Magic in Brussels?
Even today there is a significant presence of soldiers from the Irish Republic in the UK armed forces, some have been doing this for generations, and they are proudly Irish but see it as an honourable career. That could well happen with Scotland.
What I suspect many in Scotland do not realise is that separation would be quite easy to do even if the negotiations were hard. And I doubt many in England would worry about it at all. Indeed many would welcome it, whether that is sensible or not.
Some separatist see their demands for independence as a weapon to gain a greater share of power and resources for Scotland. But that is a weapon that could turn in their hands making a dream into a nightmare so, so easily.
297.The men of the clan were called out to march on Elgin in 1820, some 600+ did.
The Grants’ Raid to Elgin
Peter Golds Strange indeed as I think Nick Palmer was talking of canvassing in Gedling recently, although my memory may be at fault.
Haven’t been on line since Friday, but if the polls published over the weekend are correct (and I don’t doubt them) - that there is in effect no change, then it must mean the Lib Dem challenge in C&N is dead.
What they needed was some evidence of going forward. Unless there’s a poll in the next two days that shows a Lab to Lib Dem switch it’s game over. The Tories must now be judged on the sort of swings Blair’s Labour Party got in similar circumstances (or even Margaret Thatcher got in the late 70s)…
Nick Clegg going all gooey about supporting a Tory minority government is the clearest sign yet that the tide has well and truly turned.
He is trying to shore up his vote in the south that was ‘borrowed’ from Tories for ten or more years. The hope is that by making this statement he is reassuring those voters that he will not shore up the sinking Labour government.
But that may be a faint hope, as those Tory trend voters will now see no harm in going for a Tory candidate as that is the surest way to get a non-Labour government.
And a strange way to ‘wipe the smile off David Cameron’s face’ as he has promised the activists in the letter they were receiving by email today.
It may, however, make his appeal in Labour/LD marginals more difficult as there the tired Labour vote would see, up to now, the LDs as a safe alternative which avoids supporting the Labour party but does not let in the Tories.
It is very close to telling people vote LD and get a Tory government.
Why bother when you can vote for the real thing?
Clegg Calamity three?
289. Both the 2001 and 2005 General Elections were held on the same day as the County Council elections. There was I believe a need to separate the ballots before counting which would delay matters. By-elections normally have lower turnouts which should also speed up things unless there is a need for a recount.
Nevertheless the most critical factor is the organisation put in place by the Returning Officer including the number of skilled counters. In the past, these were frequently bank staff used to counting notes quickly. However machines have taken over this role so there may not be the number of such people available.
re 299, Witan “Benedict It is a crib from the FO style I have come across, and it would be the FO who leads such negotiations as Scotland would, by then, be a foreign country. And those FO people are good at one thing, and that is screwing foreigners out of their money.”
Fair enough.. Good to hear!
305. Why the need for machines? Its a job that takes place every four to five years, a few dozen staff paid a £100 each, to count the ballots. Could there really be an investment return on machines?
How many more ways can this government interfere and undermime the integrity of our electoral system?
Re 301, ChrisD “297.The men of the clan were called out to march on Elgin in 1820, some 600+ did.”
interesting though the article does not seem to go in to the political background nor the political effect of the action.
307. We seem to be going backwards, and results are taking longer with machines. Over 24 hours to get the London Mayoral result, when you could find out who the next government was going to be in a GE within hours counting manually by starting straight after the polls close.
Re 307, Gaz, “305. Why the need for machines? Its a job that takes place every four to five years, a few dozen staff paid a £100 each, to count the ballots. Could there really be an investment return on machines?”
I think the point is that the staff no longer count money so do not have the skills rather than replacing the staff at counts with machines.
O/T
Via Drudge: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/18/record_obama_crowd_the_size_of.html
Record Obama Crowd, the Size of a City
A few thoughts from Crewe & Nantwich:
- the Liberal Democrats haven’t “given up” as such but there is definitely much less buzz than I’d expect from a LD by-election campaign. I’m sure many posters on here will know the depressing feeling of finding a LibDem activist around every corner at by-election where they are in contention - that’s certainly not the case this time. I’ve been there for three days and they still seem to be on the same pieces of literature on Sunday afternoon as they were on Friday night, and the weekend before polling day ought to be the time when there are maximum activists.
- Labour seem to have completely written off the two-and-a-bit rural divisions. This is a dangerous game - if they are reduced to 10% or so across that 2/7 of the constituency that is a hell of a gap to make up. Conservatives are certainly doing much more work in the strongest Labour areas than Labour are in the rural parts of the seat.
- The Labour literature is very basic. I’ve not come across a colour Labour leaflet yet, everything I have seen has been printed in red-and-black. Both Conservative and LibDem literature is much more professional.
- Minor party watch: English Democrats have a red-and-black A5 flyer which looks just like a Labour leaflet until you come to read it. It has a picture of a Welsh family who are apparently much better off than their counterparts in Crewe & Nantwich. UKIP have an A3 four-page purple tome which has far too much text. No sign of Miss GB.
310. Our council just uses its own tellers and general administrators, they get extra time off or some sorts as payment.
re 313 Gaz, “310. Our council just uses its own tellers and general administrators, they get extra time off or some sorts as payment.”
So does everyones, the point is that many of them used to count cash day in day out, but now they don’t so may take longer to count votes.
308.I liked the “The Whigs are just mad” quote, and I know that the retired Captain who helped lead the march was described as a “rabid Tory” in the same book if that helps. It was written over a hundred years ago by a Minister brought up in Abernethy and I have not been able to find out much more detail on the politics angle.
I reckon that Labour could easily win the next GE in the UK. All they need to do is to introduce electronic voting, fiddle a bit with the software (I hear that Diebold are good with that), ban opinion polls in the last week of campaigning and exit polls too. Job done - Gordon’s a winner!
After all, with Labour on 25% but only needing 33% to get a Commons majority, for the country to have “voted for them”, only an 8% fiddle is needed. Easy!
Re 315, ChrisD, So, all in all we can play this as a Whigs (now Liberal Democrats) attempt to usurp democracy and the people telling them off! Shame there is not more detail though!
Except for those constituencies that are very rural, and geographically large, pretty much all elections can be completed within two and a half hours, with those close elections that require a recount taking a bit longer. I can see absolutely no need for mechanical intervention.
Change for the sake of change is a poor philosophy.
re 318 I agree for the complete lack of need for electronic counting, but you’re being a bit optimistic. Only 13 counts were done within 2.5 hours in 1997 and in 2001 with a much lower turnout 27.
319. well go on then stick an extra hour or so on there, remember though that many areas of the country had council elections on the same day, meaning that ballots had to be sorted…
Re 318, Gaz “Except for those constituencies that are very rural, and geographically large, pretty much all elections can be completed within two and a half hours, with those close elections that require a recount taking a bit longer. I can see absolutely no need for mechanical intervention.
Change for the sake of change is a poor philosophy.”
Sorry, the point is not change at the counts but change in the work experience of the counters who used to count cash by hand so were adept at counting at elections to now when they have machines in their day jobs.
317.Benedict, there seems to have been family politics involved.
Still, it just goes to show that even then, the *activists* could be highly motivated to turn out in large numbers when called upon.
Re 322, ChrisD “317.Benedict, there seems to have been family politics involved.
Still, it just goes to show that even then, the *activists* could be highly motivated to turn out in large numbers when called upon. :D”
*cough* yes. Fortunately we do not have to resort to such measures these days!
Anyway, I am off to bed! Goodnight!
The national newspapers have really started to pick up on the negative nature of the Labour campaign in Crewe and Nantwich over the weekend. Most seem to be critical, and that might effect the Labour vote even more.
Divisions over ‘Tory toff’ insult undermine Labour in Crewe by-election. Finally get to see a picture of one of the Labour activists dressed up for the part!
“The party has branded Edward Timpson, her Tory opponent, a “Tarporley Toff” in reference to a well-heeled Cheshire village outside Crewe and Mr Cameron has been followed by the party’s activists in top-hats and tails on his visits. Embarrassment was added to Labour unease yesterday when it emerged that one of those mocking Mr Cameron’s class had himself attended a fee-paying school.”
I predict
Con 16,384
Lab 8,192
LD 4,096
Green 2,048
UKIP 1,024
OMRLP 512
ED 256
G.G. 128
M.W. 64
CToDaP 32