It’s Indiana and North Carolina tomorrow
May 5th, 2008
How will the prices look on Wednesday?
I’m just arrived in the Peak District to celebrate my Boris winnings on a short break.
Tomorrow is, of course, the next mega-round of primary battles. Paul Maggs will once again be in the guest editor slot, assisted by Morus.
Mike Smithson
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N1 Mike. High Peak - nailed on Con gain next time!!!!
Hopefully Mike is in Bradfield.
I have two general patterns that I use with Obama:
-Where he is well ahead to begin, he tends to outperform the polls
-Where its a tight race his winning potential is patchy and he occasionally underperforms
In these two races those patterns which have steered me well may well prove to be broken.
In IN despite Zogby I still rate Cinton as favourite but there might be value left in backing himn with teh hope that its tight and you can lay off. Maybe a bit late unless you feel he really is going to win.
In NC, he hasnt really recovered the double digit leads he had a mere few weeks ago and I suspect that his normal cruise may not happen this time thus what you see in the polls he may not outperform dramatically, give or take a percent or two.
its been raining for two days here mike, lets hope you have brought some better weather. im in new mills.
Enjoy your short break Mike.
Very strange article I have unearthed! Many apologies for the length,I am puzzled and am still mulling it over
Clinton strategists weigh ‘nuclear option’ to take out Obama at convention
RAW STORY
Monday, May 5, 2008
Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign claims to have a secret weapon up their sleeve.
According to a report Sunday, Clinton’s campaign could force the Democratic National Committee to seat Florida and Michigan, thereby potentially giving her the votes she needs to secure the Democratic nomination.
The climate, however, doesn’t appear to be ripe. Campaign strategists tell Thomas Edsall of the Huffington Post that “any attempt to deploy it would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in the political climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month.”
This “nuclear option” — the same term applied to a Republican effort in the Senate to destroy the chamber’s filibuster — would likely cause chaos among the party, particularly among activists.
Because Clinton has 50 percent of the party’s Rules and Bylaws committee committed to her campaign, Edsall says, her backers could try to quickly pass a motion that would seat Florida’s 210 and Michigan’s 156 delegates. This would give Clinton some 55 more delegates than Obama.
At present, Clinton likely can’t catch up in sheer delegates without those two states.
Trouble is, the Democratic party sidelined the states because they broke Democratic National Committee rules, holding their primaries ahead of their scheduled slots. Clinton also violated a promise not to campaign in Florida, giving her a potentially unfair edge.
“Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of two pro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obama forces,” Edsall writes. “First… Clinton would have to win Indiana and lose North Carolina by a very small margin. Second… she would have to rapidly gain traction, not only within the media, where she has experienced some success, but within the broad activist ranks of the Democratic Party.”
Given these conditions, Clinton strategists claim she could overcome “stumbling blocks,” including persuading her loyalists on the Rules Committee to back her without jeopardizing their future political careers.
If the Rules Committee backed Clinton, Obama could appeal to the Credentials Committee. While the committee has yet to be formed, “the pattern of Clinton and Obama victories so far clearly suggests that Obama delegates on that committee will outnumber Clinton delegates,” Edsall notes, “though Obama will not, however, have a majority, according to most estimates, and the balance of power will be held by delegates appointed by DNC chair Howard Dean.”
In a discussion with women in North Carolina Saturday, however, Clinton seemed to duck her previous assertion that she’d take her fight all the way to the convention floor if Florida and Michigan’s delegates were not counted.
When asked if she would contest the nomination all the way to the convention, according to ABC, she said, “Well, I plan on going through the next contests -– West Virginia, Kentucky and others.”
“This may indicate a possible shift in thinking about how the rest of this campaign will play out, depending on what happens in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on Tuesday,” ABC notes.
Just my own two cents without elaboration: Obama will win North Carolina by double digits, probably around 15% if not more. Clinton will win Indiana by a considerably smaller margin but there is basically no reason to bet on Obama there (unless you think that others will get jittery so that you can sell your shares on Obama again at a profit before the results).
Sorry to go off thread but its a oint of interest rather than discussion. Eric the answer to any accusations of Tory heartless campaigning? [Curtesy of Brogen]
‘Mrs Pickles was promised a lavish holiday after the local elections campaign, and I’m delighted to report that she’s loving Crewe and Nantwich. Eric has been there since Saturday overseeing the Tory campaign, and is encouraged by evidence that his side has scored an advance: there is little sign so far of a Labour campaign, whereas the Tories are on their third leaflet drop already, and helpers are pouring in from all over to boost the strength of what is already a strong Conservative association. It’s worth noting the personal link between Mr Pickles and the late Gwyneth Dunwoody. He served on the select committee with her, helped run her campaign for the Speakership, and grieves her loss. “But Labour’s called a by-election and she would have thought we were soft if we hadn’t run a full-blown campaign,” he tells me.
A sound move.
I was watching Chicago’s local ABC station this morning before work and there were two Obama ads in as many commercial breaks. He’s making a big play on the McCain/Clinton gas tax holiday plan as being a “typical Washington stunt” of a short term show of action while not making gas prices any cheaper in the long run. The other theme to the ads was that he was a community organiser with working class people before politics.
The discussion from the previous thread on the prospective Lib Dem performance in a likely 2010 election is more important to the national scene than first appears.
One of my ‘golden betting’ rules for British politics is to never knowingly underestimate the yellow peril !! Their importance to the national scene is magnified by what I’ve previously described as the ‘Lib Dem blocking minority’ - that is a significant (50-70) block of Lib Dem MP’s that deny a Tory minority.
The fact is to obtain a bare majority the Tories need a landslide of over 130 gains of which it appears that the vast majority, probably 120 will have to be Labour losses. Even some of the Lib Dem hyper marginals such as Eastleigh and Westmorland are looking like repeats of North Norfolk 2005. And for every Lib Dem seat not captured another Labour seat must come into play.
A Conservative majority government remains a difficult but by no means impossible task. Indeed the not to be ignored spread betting clearly favour that position, just. However will the confluence of last weeks factors be repeated in a general election two years away in a FPTP system that presently favours Labour? IMO certainly not.
For those of use who regularly splash the cash in the political markets the Lib Dems remain a very interesting and perhaps pivotal player.
http://therightstudent.com/2008/05/useless-reporting.html
Why is the BBC reporting that Crewe and Nantwich is a ’safe labour seat’ ?!?!
My ‘gut feel’ guess is that Obama will win NC by 9 and Clinton will win Indiana by 3. My current polling projections (which were spot on in Pennslyvania) are Obama by 0.01 (!) in Indiana and by 9.18 in North Carolina. Of course these projections may change with the latest batch of polls.
The joy of the expectations game
IN is in the Chicago media area, we did well to win it.
IN has voters similar to PA, we did well to lose by a little
We were so far behind in NC we did well to close the gap.
We’re so far in delegates we were concentrating on John McCain. Besides everyone knows this election is close. NC went our way in the end.
Can’t wait
6. It would have to be very tight now Mike for Obama to be a great bet. His odds are such that unless there was genuine doubt about the result it wont affecrt his odds significantly enough to bet/lay.
Hence my comments at 3, that the value may have gone unless you think he could be the winner.
10. To make the thought that they might lose it exciting?
10 - Because it is?
I’ve posted 5.38.coms NC prediction toy before but it’s worth repeating for the uninitiated :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/make-your-own-north-carolina-prediction.html
A seat doesn’t cease becoming a ’safe seat’ just because there are circumstances in place where it could be lost.
The Conservatives lost lots of safe seats in 1997.
5 - Thanks for that Herbert.
I am surprised that it says “Because Clinton has 50 percent of the party’s Rules and Bylaws committee committed to her campaign…” - I wasn’t aware she had that many (I would have said about 40% Clinton, 35% Obama, 25% undeclared/neutral).
If she has Rules and Bylaws, I think they will definitely seated in full. If RBC seats them (for breaking essentially RBC rules) then the Credentials Committee will not overturn that judgement, however much Obama’s campaign wants them too. If the RBC has backed down, the Credentials Committee has no reason to deny them - it would be like the Court of Appeals prosecuting after the police and CPS have agreed to drop charges.
Even if RBC enforces its rules, I think Clinton can get them seated via a minority report in the Credentials Committee, added to the Temporary Roll, so they can vote on each other’s challenges from the floor of the Convention (once on supporting Minority Report, once to seat both delegations).
*If* she really has 50% of the RBC when they meet on May 31st, I’ll be betting on Clinton, as 4.5 on Betfair looks very good value if Michigan and Florida are seated.
After tomorrow, Clinton will ride on a wave of good press.
Thus her stock on intrade will reach the 30; it is now 25.
Why? Simple.
Tomorrow will be a split: Obama wins North Carolina; Clinton Indiana.
We’ll get another six weeks of campaigning! Yeah baby!
Next week, Obama-Boy will lose West Virginia.
Clinton will go up!
The following week he’ll lose Kentucky.
Guess what? Clinton will go up!
Then his press will be worst than it is now. Yeah baby! Clinton’s on intrade might steady around 30-33 then.
Does it make sense?
11 - I’d go with your gut on that one Matthew. Obama by 9 in NC, and Clinton by 3-5% in IN seems the most plausible outcome.
15. Maybe in the past but would you really put money on Labour retaining it at the bye election?
I agree Phillipe - unless Obama wins Indiana, I think he’s got a rocky month ahead of him, and anything better than 3/1 on Clinton seems to be short-term value in the month of May, as far as I’m concerned.
19. No, because you’re ignoring the fact Obama will win Oregon on the same day as Kentucky.
Clinton by 5 in Indiana, Obama by 11 in North Carolina.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_050608.pdf
Last PPP for NC, shows a further 2 point drop in the Obama lead.
Obama 53 Clinton 43
Key figures: AA voters (35%) go 84-11 to Obama, White voters go 60-34 for Clinton
21 - I will bet on Labour to win Crewe and Nantwich for the following reasons:
a) I think the family name will help
b) I think 7k-plus majority is tough to overcome any time
c) Gordon getting such a kicking on Thurs/Fri has eased slightly the electorate’s yearning to punish him - pent-up anger has been dissipated by the local elections, and won’t be as pwerful now
d) The Tories might be worried about seeming too desperate to win in case they mess up and lose their momentum, and this could translate into a less-than-the-kitchen-sink approach.
e) The Lib Dems are so much better at by-elections than the Tories that the anti-Labour vote will be quite split
f) If Brown loses, he may well go - he will kill to keep this seat
New PPP Primary poll for North Carolina :
Clinton 43% .. Obama 53%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_050608.pdf
23 - Obama is the clear favourite in Oregon but I wouldn’t rule Clinton out completely. The last SUSA poll had him up 50-44, not an insurmountable lead.
27 - Do keep up!
26
c) could well be the most important point. The Labour party has been giving a nationwide kicking and maybe now its time to see how they react. if you are a flaky Labour voter what do you achieve by giving them another kick in Crewe?
23 - I don’t think Oregon is a certainty for Obama
26. A good analysis and I agree with c) to which I hadn’t thought of before. Probably because I’d still like to give him a good kicking but that’s probably just me ;P
If Labour do win then I think it’ll be with a much less majority, probably into the 1000’s or three digits, but to call it a ’safe labour seat’ is wrong imo.
New ARG Primary Polls for North Carolina and Indiana :
North Carolina
Clinton 42% .. Obama 50%
Indiana
Clinton 53% .. Obama 45%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/ncdem8-706.html
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/indem8-704.html
22 - Obama will have gained the majority of all pledged delegates by May 20th (from Oregon), at that point the SDs will come under unremitting pressure to declare. There will probably be an Obama majority by the end of the month. Look at this rationally, I know that any Clinton victory has to suspend the rational but there are limits.
On a topical note, she needs over forty points with just the pink and black to pot, snooker one - win the popular vote, snooker two - get FL and MI seated, snooker three - persuade superdelegates to switch to her from Obama, not just newly declare but switch from supporting him.
That’s the position she is in, and it hasn’t got any better since her post Super Tuesday disasters, she’s merely kept the gap from growing too quickly.
21 - No, I think the Conservatives will win.
29 Kieran.
Two things on comments above.
I expect FL & MI to be recognised somehow and long have done but a full seating is potentially toxic so she’ll do well if she succeeds. If she does and Obama loses, its his own fault.
Phillippe, the problem with Clinton going up is the potential limit to how far. Unless a there was an Obama collapse (so far theres a slide but no meltdown) and/or the FL & MI delegates get seated absolutely in full and everyone knows that, then she still is an outsider thus I am guessing the markets may hit a limit on how far up they’ll push her numbers.
Caveat emptor, though if you can gain out of the upside with your protfolio then its not illogical that she may rise, modestly.
34 - Actually that would still leave her a snooker adrift, err, snooker four?
34 - I’d agree with that but betting on this market is as much about betting on how sentiment is going to change as much as what the final outcome will be.
30 - That kind of makes the dodgy assumption that people are only voting to “give Labour a kicking” (ie. will come back when it matters). More likely there are just fewer Labour supporters about now.
36 - Well, you’ve trumped me a few times, so about time I got one back!
23
Oregon: yeah, the One-You-Are-For will win this state, no doubt.
But will it really play on the market? I don’t think so — ’cause Oregon is perceived as being so left-wing it might as well be part of … Canada.
Ha!
Brian Taylor, BBC Scotland’s political editor, says:
“Ms Alexander’s mates in the Calman Commission - which only began work last week - are entitled to feel somewhat sore.
The Tories and the Liberal Democrats thought they were joining an initiative to shore up the Union; an initiative which deliberately excluded the option of independence.
They did not know, they were not told, that there would be a side bet on an independence referendum.
… a referendum now seems likely by 2011.”
Who needs enemies when the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have friends like Wendy Alexander?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2008/05/calculation_and_fear.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calman_Commission
On Oregon, if Clinton can consistently get within 5-6% at this point then Kiera and Morus are correct, she can push on as shes shown better street fighting skills than Obama in tight races.
Kieran…
31. You think Pacific liberals will vote for Clinton the blue collar fighter?
25, If that poll is relatively accurate, I reckon Clinton will reduce that apparent lead a lil more on the day as I think a few more white voters will go her way.
Tennessee for example was a big Clinton blowout on whites and its theirtically possible again.
Flint on radio 4 repeating the mantra of 3 million more homes by 2020…. the fightback goes on, not.
32 - I think they’ll lose 5000 off the majority, but still win. We’re into semantic territory, but I think losign 5000 off your majority, but still winning fairly comfortably allows it to be defined as safe.
The majority of 7078 is less than the House average (mean) of 7629. To put it in context, it is 342nd in size of majority (324th would be the median), and 189th of the Labour seats (where 178 is the median position, and 7780 the mean majority).
Those measures suggest it should not be called a safe seat, but the odds on Labour falling to the levels of losing all seats less safe than it would be considered a landslide almost equal to 1997 (ie a little anomalous).
It really depends on how you define safe, and what proportion of seats in the Commons you think should be described that way.
5.38.Com’s NC projection :
Obama by 17 points.
Delegates - Obama 66 Clinton 49.
Popular Vote - Obama by 150,000.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/north-carolina-prediction-obama-by.html
40 - No, people vote for plenty of other reasons, but venting frustration at a long-serving unpopular government, whose leader had never faced them in an election before I think contributed to Labour’s disaster on Thursday. ‘Giving the gvt a kicking’ is a pre-cursor to ‘time for a change’, but there is a maturation period in between. I just think that those who did vote for that reason are unlikely to do so again so quickly.
46 - I’ll write more on this later, but yes.
47. Areas like the research triangle will stop Clinton hitting the heights she has in inland Southern states among whites.
46 - According to this Kos article Oregon is 23rd in terms of per-capita income, lower than Ohio. That suggests quite a few blue collar workers.
Should say Rasmussen has Obama leading by 12. Obama has about a 70-80% chance of winning but it is possible that Clinton sneaks it. Remember you thought Clinton couldn’t win Indiana and that now looks like a real possibility.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/2/0425/51231/986/507524
48. not quite sure how 3 million homes might help, I think its hows that Labour has not reacted to landscape post credit crunch. An increase in supply in cheap new homes would undermine the value of exsisting homeowners.
Many housebuilders are ceasing new developments. And I am unsure of the public sectors ability to build to much social housing.
I am also not sure how many if nay will be delivered to make the promise look tangible by 2010.
47/52 - Research triangle, but also the booming college-educated banking community in Charlotte (now America’s second biggest banking centre after NYC). Also, Tennessee has much more of its population in the Appalachia region than North Carolina. Appalachia has been Obama’s nemesis.
Election Inspection projections for North Carolina :
Obama by 18.8 points.
Delegates - Obama 65 Clinton 50.
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/05/04/election-inspections-final-north-carolina-projection/
53. No, it means rural Western types and people in services. Blue collar in US parlance means manufacturing types. Also a lot of the drop in income in Oregon has been since the dotcom bubble burst. People who have suffered a downturn only recently are more likely to go to Obama than those who have suffered from decades of economic decay across the rustbelt and Appalachia, which is where Clinton’s strength lies.
My take on Crewe and Nantwich:
- Tamsin Dunwoody will shore up her mother’s personal vote. I think that’s fairly certain. Look at Trish Law in Blaenau Gwent, for instance.* The issue will be whether that will be enough to mitigate the loss Labour will inevitably suffer due to their current unpopularity and the by-election factor.
- The Liberal Democrats will make some kind of dent in the vote because they always do. However, this is a clear Lab v Con fight and as such it doesn’t seem likely given current circumstances that they’ll leapfrog both into first place. What will be crucial is if they eat away more at the Labour vote or the Tory vote. If it’s the former, it gives the Tories the advantage; and vice versa.
- I don’t believe the “we’ve already given Brown a kicking so we’ll hesitate to do so again” factor is valid. If the electorate really do want to get Labour out (I believe at present they do), they won’t hesitate to keep kicking them again and again, at every opportunity. What is to be decided is whether the electorate truly do want Labour out, or simply want to bloody their nose now and again. If it’s the latter, this factor might come into play slightly.
All in all it’s probably one of the most exciting by-elections of recent times. My current prediction is a very narrow win for the Tories, but at the same time I could just as easily see it going narrowly to Labour. It’ll be close, in any respect. The Lib Dems will increase their vote, perhaps substantially, but it won’t be enough to break into the top two.
*I realise that was an Assembly seat, and Ms. Law the widow, but the principle stands.
55. North Carolina is considered one of the biggest potential real estate investments, because of the rapid suburbanisation of the place and great universities.
56. and whats your own prediction on NC?
And what are those two tools predictions for IN?
If the tories can run a good campaign I think they can win. The labour ‘fightback’ since the local elections has just consisted of the same stuff repeated more often by more ministers. That plus the large personal vote that helped Mrs Dunwoody retain her seat may be lost, especially as her daughter doesn’t seem to have any connection with Crewe apart from her mum.
it’d be surprising if Clinton managed to catch up on ‘pledged delegates’. But what is the point of superdelegates if not for just this circumstance, where they may feel the candidate narrowly leading among party activists is less likely to win in november. The point of the whole process is to win in November after all!. All the calculations also assume that superdelegates will not change their minds - neither Clinton nor Obama’s numbers are guaranteed, and a lot has changed since some of them made their initial declarations
A second point on November that i haven’t seen discussed much. Americans seem to like their separation of powers. The record of periods where one party had both the white house and congress is pretty bad both under Clinton and Dubya. Given everyone is sure the Dems will have solid majorities in both houses, i’d have thought this would tempt quite a lot of independents to split the ticket by voting McCain and ensure some of the pork is vetoed out of future bills.
57 - Sure, my terminology was not entirely accurate but the point still stands. People struggling economically have proved receptive to the Clinton message. She hasn’t done much campaigning out there, the gap is not large enough to assume a win just yet.
Phillipe Magnan,
Suprised to see you on here again…. any chance of an apology re: your ‘not very bright’ posts on my blog and on here?
I’d though you’d be keeping a low profile.
Chris Trinder
http://kickingbets.blogspot.com
48 Agreed - why don’t they ever ask if its 3 million homes by 2020 how many by 2009? 2010? IIRC it was orginally to boost year on year totals based on projections at beginning of last year. The fightback so far is just re-announcements, after 11 years you would think the media were a little less gullible.
CON GAIN C&N NAILED ON
9. Well certainly that looks by and large the case. But I would have thought seats like Romsey, Hereford, Portsmouth South i.e up to ten were serious Tory targets. The flip side to that for the Lib Dems is of course that seats like Islingston South, Swansea West and Norwich South look increasinly in play.
Oh dear lord. Labour once again manage to ‘O’ turn in a day.
Rubbish tax trials were on before local elections, were to be scrapped in rumours earlier today, now will still go ahead…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7384394.stm
56/60. Deary me Jack..gone quiet on what these tools predict for Indiana?
Do they predict anything?
62. That’s not true. Struggling people in Utah, Iowa and North Dakota went for Obama. It’s a particular type of poor people that have gone for Clinton: those in the areas which have had continuous decline over very long periods and a certain sort of working class populism has developed. That’s not the case in Oregon.
60 Yokel. “And what are those two tools predictions for IN?”
Charming !!!
My predictions - NC - Obama by 12 points and IN too close to call.
70. Took your time…..I know you are an older citizen but come on…the computer does the work…
The housing/tractor production figure announcements are just surreal. “If we say it often enough then it will happen”.
In the real world we have house builders that have stopped new house building and a Government announcing that more will be built.
Therefore there is a massive disconnect between what the Govt says will happen and the real production figures.
Meanwhile the communities that have the THREAT of these house hanging over them are rapidly turning anti-Govt.
By the time 20 years comes around probably 1/3 of the people who will actually vote today will be dead.
68. Election Inspection has Indiana at 52-48 for Clinton. FiveThirtyEight hasn’t done a final one yet for the Hoosier state.
65 - you want to post something constructive for once?
Ok thus it apears that the main issue in NC is whether Clinton can keep the Obama win to 10% or less or whether Obama can break out for something much bigger.
Indiana: Tight but pundits here trending Clinton?
58 - Fair enough - I don’t think people (esp ex Labour voters) necessarily want Labour out yet, I think they just wanted to get them listening.
I think ‘let’s give them a kicking’ often turns into ‘time for a change’, but we’re not there yet. The ‘kicking’ is usually a one-off or couple of occasions spanning a few elections. ‘Time for a change’ would see sustained defeats - thus if C&N is lost, I think Gordon goes.
74 I would call you a * but I dont like bad language!
74. Anton, Ave Its consistent and unmitigated partisanship that doesnt even pretend to be neutral is like an anchor; Unglamourous but essential.
69 - ND and IA were caucuses, and UT wasn’t a blow-out. I’d add into the mix that Obama won the WA Primary by only 3 points. Yes it didn’t mean anything but it is indicative.
Clinton will fight hard in Oregon and it would be foolish to rule her out completely.
68 Yokel. Election Inspection - Indiana predictions :
Clinton 51.7% .. Obama 48.3%
Delegates split 36 each.
No5.38.com projections for Indiana as yet.
72. Where i live in west yorkshire there are new developments sitting empty! The new houses thing is not an issue now! Nobody with a ‘right mind’ would buy a house or flat at this time as it is a licience to lose money! Plus if some of the tractor production figures are to believed the immigrants are going home!
76. I think the swing voteres voter types have shifted though Mrous and the tilt is Tory.
Excellent summary of the race from Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=atrCbqyGfxME&refer=politics
76. Before these local elections I would have agreed with you, Morus. But I think those elections demonstrated more than just a “we want you to listen.” To get a lower share of the vote than Major managed in 1995 is pretty grim.
81 exactly and that is why broon will be forced out. the house price collapse, even if limited to 30%, will do for him. the collapse of the BTL market will see repossessions soar and then it really is game over for the gurning clown.
78 TY!
81 ‘Nobody with a ‘right mind’ would buy a house or flat at this time as it is a licience to lose money!’ - absolutely as Labour has created a house price bubble with their lunatic policies!!
Link to Election Inspection Indiana projections :
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/05/04/election-inspections-final-indiana-projection/
……………………
New super delegate for Obama - Kayln Free of Oklahoma.
76
Cant agree Morus, Gordon would NEVER go of his own volition, even if the men in white coats arrived, he would still be dragged from No 10 kicking and screaming. C and N is important, but I think a drubbing in the locals next time would be the tipping point, by which time it’ll be too late to do anything. Labour got Gordo and they are stuck with him. Its the slow boat to electoral oblivion, unless there is a miraculous recovery in the economy, and even then the hurt will still be present in the voters minds.
Kalyn-Free?
Is that not something you get on the label of some kind of skin cream?
81. Nail hit on head.
Building more houses as the prices plummet is tantamount to lunacy. People are going to wait until they think the price drop has levelled out before buying. What’s the point of heading into negative equity as soon as you buy your first house?
Building more houses was something that needed to be addressed when we had the price boom. But, what a shock, Labour are only waking up to these things after 11 years in power.
86 - What ‘lunatic’ policies?
Marc Ambinder reports that when early voting in NC closed on Saturday 390K ballots had been cast with a black turnout of 40.6% !!
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_early_vote_in_north_caroli.php
91 give us a clue…..on what topic and in what should we list them?
9. Internal memo to the Jack W drafting committee -
Your product is badly indeed of a relaunch. The same old jokes, the same old recycling of conventional wisdom and the simplistic poll of polls exercises are just getting boring now. Perhaps you could announce you will be ceasing posting for a while due to ‘illness’. That would give you a breathing space to come up with some new material and perhaps win a bit of sympathy from your more gullible readers.
(note to memo writer - they’ve already tried that…)
86. Maybe Labour will introduce a new government work scheme:
Mass production of Wendy houses to boost the logging industry, the carpenters industry and the chemical industry (Paint and varnish), the small tool makers could ramp up “Plane and chiseal” production and due to the benifits of economic growth; trade in novilty coins would boom!!!!! Horay - Mark Senior - you can buy your first home a wendy house!
91 Ah hello kieran my firend!
Encouragement of ‘have now pay later’ credit free for all on both houses and consumer items, and building up bloated state sector with ‘000,000s of new state jibs, and huge handouts AND complete immegration free for all!!!!!!
24 - Pretty much what I have thought for the last fortnight.
90 - Increasing housing supply is a long-term challenge requiring changes to the planning system for example. Decisions taken now might not have an effect for a number of years. Also, even with increased numbers being built new build will still only be a fraction of the total stock and not have a significant impact on prices.
A slump in house prices is nearly always caused by weak demand rather than strong supply.
96 LOL and I went to school under a Tory government!
er ‘friend’, ‘jobs’, immigration’
Re Crewe and Nantwich, I read in one of the weekend papers (Saturday’s Telegraph?) that the Tories got >4,000 votes more than Labour in the contests for the new East Cheshire authority in wards that make up the C&N constituency.
I guess that’s only a rough marker, and there were wards where the Tories took 2 seats to Labour’s 1, so I’m not sure how they calculated the 4,000 lead (total votes across the constituency, or votes of the winning candidate in each ward, or something else) - but it’s got to be a good early omen for the Tories.
They simply have to win C&N to keep up the momentum, it’s more important than Boris winning London, or getting a notional 44% projected share.
And the LDs somehow winning it would be an absolute disaster for the Tories and Dave. Imagine how Heffer, Hitchens et al would react to that…
98. Exterminate! Exterminate! Exterminate!
Do you still support Gordon Brown??? 
100 TY as I said earlier its NAILED ON,
Where’s your counter argument Anton????
Re C+N, people aren’t about just ‘giving Labour a kicking’, they’re about seeing Labour as a busted flush. Surely if the local elections show anything, they show that?
Another water-walking shaman like Saint Tony might have staved off the inevitable, but all they had was Gordon, who destroyed Labour’s image as the party of the poor with his idiocy on the 10p tax band.
I reckon C+N will be won by whichever party looks most likely to beat Labour, irrespective of the Dunwoody name. Anti-Labour tactical voting will characterise the rest of this Parliament and the next GE.
Evidence? It’s in my water.
58 - I think the Trish Law case is completely different. The Blaenau Gwent electorate were not ready to forgive the local Labour party from stopping Peter Law being selected to fight the seat.
I just can’t see Labour holding Crewe and Nantwich if Brown’s fightback is scrapping pay as you throw tax. It’s almost laughable.
NC AA early voting differential turnout is 175% !!!
…………………..
94 Yippee … another stalker … or probably the same one !!
92 - Remember TX Jack. Turnout in AA areas was much higher in early voting, but went back to average in the total vote. The Obama machine may be effective getting people out early but that is no guarantee about what will happen on the day.
96 - How has the government encouraged ‘have now pay later’ credit free for all? It was Banks that decided to offer mortgages not the government. I agree that there should have been more regulation but after the Redwood report last year Conservatives said they would reduce regulations.
The majority of the increase in employment has come from the private sector.
100. it’s more important than Boris winning London, or getting a notional 44% projected share.
98. ‘even with increased numbers being built..’
But increased numbers aren’t being built - housing starts are collapsing. It’s mixed sex wards all over again; you Labour kiddies and wannabe spinners seem to think that just announcing something as a policy automatically means it happens.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/west_virginia/west_virginia_democratic_presidential_primary
New West Virginia poll
Clinton 56 Obama 27
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 47% .. Obama 43%
Clinton 45% .. Obama 50%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107014/Gallup-Daily-Democrats-Tied-Record-12th-Day.aspx
Kieran- Do you still support Gordon Brown?
103
It’s bad enough having Gordon’s sourpuss on TV doing his best to turn off the voters. But I heard wee Douggie Alexander on R4 supporting Gordon…..:-)
I’m an exiled Scot BUT having 2 Scots on TV/Radio in such senior positions bleating on about visions and policies reminded me what a bunch of plonkers they are and how the West Lothian question is still there.
If Labour wants to win seats in England the last person on Radio should be Douglas Alexander. But clearly they don’t think like that…
107 Kieran. If memory serves AA early voting in TX was 160% and reduced to 150% on the day. Obama has a better organization in NC but I’d expect that 40.6 figure to drop a few points overall to around 38%. Still a very good AA turnout.
114 - yep, totally screwed.
BUT - we don’t want Labour getting rid of him now, do we. He’s the Tories’ greatest asset right now.
Apart from winning C&N, of course, i think the Tories should do all they can to preserve him in No 10 until May 2010. It would be madness not to.
C&N is almost a marginal seat. At an even division of the national vote, we would expect Labour to hold it by 13% [10% or less would be the classic definition of marginal]
If the Tories obtained an overall majority of 1 in the House we would expect them to be only 1200 votes behind Labour in C&N.
“Safe seat” my bum
Does anyone live in Crewe and Nantwich constituency that can give some kind of unbiased feel to what might happen. Are people sick of Brown and constant Labour Lying and half truths or do they still believe the tories have eight heads and eat babies. Are the Lib dems as weak as everyone says.
105 “I just can’t see Labour holding Crewe and Nantwich if Brown’s fightback is scrapping pay as you throw tax. It’s almost laughable.”
Are they are scrapping them? Do they know themselves?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7384394.stm
116. I agree, I don’t want Brown to go! We need to win the next election by a large margin!
Wally Edge of Politikermd.com reports that Maryland super delegates Michael Cryor and Lauren Glover will later today endorse Obama :
http://www.politickermd.com/editormd/2082/cryor-endorse-obama
118. Surely no PB.commer is so unfortunate.
Thanks for the kind comments at the start of the thread. we are staying in a place called Froggatt Edge in the Hope Valley - looking out on some stunning rocks which are a big attraction for climbers. The sun is shining, the temperature is 20″C and my Vodafone modem works! Thanks Boris; thanks YouGov and thanks the Ken backers who kept the prices reasonable.
122 bit harsh, I must admit I have never been there but always used to travel through it when I went up to Liverpool, it looked ok.
New SUSA Primary Poll for Indiana :
Clinton 54% .. Obama 42%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=777e9395-9b22-44ec-a525-981fcb9029e9
Has anyone found any information consolidation (turnouts, party vote shares, numbers of votes etc) on line regarding the local elections?
Labour winning in Crewe and Nantwich could ultimately depend on the leaflets. They might just scrape home, if there is no mention of Brown/Labour? The branding as such would be toxic.
127. Presumably you’ve seen this from Ben Brogan:
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/05/all-change-at-c.html
127
Kiss of death for Labour at C&N
http://www.mypembrokeshire.com/vnews/display.v?TARGET=showImage&article_id=45787de69690e&image_num=1
I hadnt, but I usually look once a day. I note three leaflets already, (we) seem to have hit the ground running…
129 need to have a caption competition
Might Texas become a joker in the pack :
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/5/114648/0965/138/509389
105. Kind of ironic, isn’t it? Trish Law got elected because the local Labour party didn’t want an AWS.
Jack - UKpaul and I posted on this earlier
See previous thread for discussion.
119, are Labour actively trying to annoy people through sheer stupidity?
They didn’t lose hundreds of councillors because of rubbish tax.
And now they can’t seem to decide whether or not their mighty fightback is actually going to include that masterstroke of strategy.
It’s all very bemusing.
123- Mike- did you know that the Peak District is the 2nd most visited Park in the world? Behind one in Japan, but ahead of Yellowstone. Incredible
Did you see any wallabees?
125, Ouch.
132. In short..no.
135 - indeed. I thought the same this morning. I thought the rubbish tax had already been binned. Reminding people of it today, when they’re pretty naffed off with the Govt anyway, seems rather stupid.
So, no surprise there then…
135 The bin tax was binned (or not binned or whatever) in Fightback II, probably re-announced in Fightback III and now re-re-announced in Fightback iV.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/05/bin-taxes-were.html
My prediction for Tuesday -
North Carolina
Obama 54.5
Clinton 45.5
Indiana
Obama 46
Clinton 54
No real change in the delegate totals, Obama left needing 182 delegates, Clinton needing 326.
OT, is Ehud Olmert in Israel about to ne embroiled in a corruption investogation?
Thats what we need for betting, an Israeli election with spreads on the percentages of every part on the national list…..
Some Hillary SD’s begin to waver :
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-supers5-2008may05,0,4564727.story?track=rss
142 see 67
As a (wavering and now heavy-smoking-post Thursday night :wink:),I hope a Labour loss of C+N may set in train a chain of events leading Brown to resigning over (obviously spurious) health grounds-Jack Straw as caretaker leader could probably deny David Cameron an overall majority next time,and IF (a huge IF),the economy has a fairly soft landing,under Jack Straw,Labour may just be largest in a hung parliament.But Gordon Brown-forget it-I wish he had a car licence,then he could buy a little green Mini,and drive away like Mr.Bean
The general assumption is that in last week’s local electiond LibDems lost out to the Conservatives but compensated by gains from Labour .
Although strictly true the churn was very much greater than most may realise .
Met Districts
Con gained 8 seats from LibDem but lost 5 to them
LibDem gained 27 seats from Lab but lost 10 to them
Unitaries ( not including the 4 new ones )
Con gained 12 seats from LibDem but lost 2 to them
LibDem gained 15 seats from Lab but lost 1 to them
Non Met Districts
Con gained 46 seats from LibDem but lost 41 to them
LibDem gained 22 seats from Lab but lost 14 to them
Net changes for England
Con gained 18 seats from LibDem
LibDem gained 39 seats from Lab
Fuller figures are on the vote2007 site
107. How about artificially keeping inflation low through both immigration and a flawed CPI calculation, which in turn keeps the BoE interest rates artificially low?
145. Does that nto then suggest that the biggest switches were direct to Tory from Labour?
145 Have you apologised to Yougov yet Mark?
In terms of seats certainly . I doubt that very few voters actually change their vote from one local election to the next . The swings are generally caused by one party’s voters being more enthusiastic to turn out thsn last time and another party’s voters being more likely to stay at home .
149. The Guardian had this. “Another worrying trend for Labour is that voters seem happy to side with whichever party looks best placed to beat it — indicating tactical voting of the type that cost the Tories so dear in 1997. In northern constituencies such as Newcastle East and Derby North, where the Liberal Democrats are running second, our analysis shows voters have rallied to them. By contrast, in southern seats, where the Conservatives are stronger, such as Plymouth Moor View and Southampton Itchen, the Liberal Democrats have been squeezed as voters have rallied to the Conservatives. Before this week’s elections some within Labour were warning about southern discomfort. But in the event, the discomfort has arrived in the north and the south alike.”
67 Apologies. Missed your post.
Portsmouth South looks Ok. Locals and large Labour vote. Romsey and Hereford look very vunerable. I think the three Lab seats are actually more complex and perhaps safer.
148 Why should I ? Having spotted their fundamental error in incorrectly weighting the over 55’s they had to make a humiliating public acknowledgement of that fact .
146 - Come on Socrates. For a start if interest rates had been higher we would have had slower growth higher unemployment. I accept that CPI is not a good measure, but even under RPIX (the old measure) the Bank would not have set interest rates at a significantly different level. We’re talking differences of 25 or 50 basis points, and that only in the last year or so.
Has immigration really had a significant impact on house prices/inflation? You would need to have a proper study to be sure. However most immigrants won’t be buying houses. Also, I see many immigrants are now returning to eastern Europe, so the level of immigration should drop. I can see how people can disagree with the governments policies but to call them ‘lunatic’ is silly.
It is not akin to the late eighties boom which Lawson stoked with his tax changes. A big macro-economic error.
152 I thought you were involved in Livingstone’s attempt to say their polling was politically motivated.
151 I think the Tories nailed the Lib Dem deputy in Portsmouth though right. I’m just not sure Hancock will suddenly start squeezing the Labour vote now if he hasn’t already in the way you can bet Huhne will. A hard to call struggle though. Those Labour seats I’m not so sure though see 150 from the Guardian.
154 Nope .
58 I don’t believe the analogy with Trish Law is valid.
Trish Law lived in Blaenau Gwent constituency, and was personally known to much of the electorate as the wife of a prominent local politician.
Tamsin Dunwoody lives in Haverfordwest, miles away from Crewe and Nantwich, and is not known even to activists in her own party. She has no connection whatsoever to C&N.
I think if the Tory candidate is reasonably astute and personable (I have no information on this), he will win.
50, 56 Those, like me, who have taken Ladbrokes’ handicapped bet for Hillary +16% to win in North Carolina may have noticed that Jack W has posted two polls this evening showing Obama ahead by 17% & 18.8% respectively. Those of a nervous disposition may therefore wish to buy some insurance by backing the opposing side of the handicap, i.e. Obama -16% at the current odds of 3.5/1 (expressed as a stake inclusive 4.5/1 by Ladbrokes). These odds may also be attractice to those who did not originally back Hillary.
157. I agree that the Tories will win this. I don’t at all buy the idea that the electorate as a whole is able (or intends) to deliver any kind of nuanced message. When Labour’s vote collapses it is because Labour is very unpopular. Simple as that. As soon as Betfair open a market I’ll be betting on the Tories.
152 I have to say “fundamental error” is too strong. Yougov were basically right. The error was a minor one.
Perhaps your searching analysis might be better directed to other polling companies?
Is there a Times Populus poll tomorrow?
rogerh
153. The big mistake that the MPC made was to cut rates in 2005 when the housing market looked like it was heading for a correction. None of the other data at the time supported a cut. This reignited the housing boom to unprecedented levels in the south-east and has left us with a far deeper problem now.
Just for fun I looked up the result of the Newcastle under Lyme by-election (because it is next door to C and N). If shares of vote changed in the same way, it would be a Lib Dem gain by a few per cent. This time it ought to be the Tories but there seem to be a few doubts about their ability to close the deal.
154 I score that a clear win to Mark Senior. I imagine you will be apologising in due course.
I just spent some time browsing LabourHome. Aside from those who just dont get it, some lefties actually understand the situation they are in and how to rectify it. But the trouble with Lefties, as we all know from this forum, is they dont listen. They have an idea in their head of what should be right - even if it is wrong.
158 - They were projections (i.e. guesses) not polls
162
The biggest mistake of all was for Gordon to spend a trillion quid when the money wasn’t there. Thats the root of all the problems… As Ken Clarke said “Labour Chancellors always run out of money”
Blair allowed it IMHO so he could win in 2005 and for no other reason. He knew what would happen…..
157 She also got kicked out by her former constituents at the last Welsh elections. Reminds me of the perennial loser that is Annabel Ewing.
153. When immigration is at the level of half a million a year, it undeniably has the effect of keeping wages, and thus wage inflation, down. As for inflation, its not a simply choice between the old measure and the new measure - governments should continue to find more accurate ways of measuring, and it is my firm belief that the government avoided doing this because it would have given worse headlines. The office of national statistics needs to be made independent.
162 - Do you think a 0.25% cut in interest rates can cause a housing boom?
159 I would agree, there is no hint.
browsing online newspaper comments, the main message is “Too Little, Too Late”
168 - The ONS is being made independent. Net immigration has been running at c. 200-250k per year since 2004. Yes this will have reduced inflation, which is a good thing in many ways.
The argument I was having with ave it, well not really an argument as he was unable to put forward any explanation of his position, was about whether the government’s ‘lunatic’ policies had caused a house price boom.
The problem of how to control asset booms is one all central banks have had to grapple with. I don’t think the answer is to not try to reduce inflation, because then interest rates would be too low.
House price increases have happened for structural reasons. The government probably should have done more to dampen things down (although that wouldn’t have been popular) but they have hardly fueled it.
156 You were actually cited claiming that you were not a London resident but claimed to have been asked to take a London Polling Poll.
153
“For a start if interest rates had been higher we would have had slower growth higher unemployment.”
If inflation is too high interests rates need to rise to curb inflationary pressure. If peoples wages are not increasing with real inflation levels then effectively they are getting a pay cut.
“I accept that CPI is not a good measure, but even under RPIX (the old measure) the Bank would not have set interest rates at a significantly different level. We’re talking differences of 25 or 50 basis points, and that only in the last year or so.”
What evidence have you got for either of these statements.
“Has immigration really had a significant impact on house prices/inflation? You would need to have a proper study to be sure. However most immigrants won’t be buying houses.”
You don’t have to be an economics genius to work out that more people = increased house prices either because they are buying the houses or because people are buy to let to the immigrant poulation.
“Also, I see many immigrants are now returning to eastern Europe, so the level of immigration should drop.”
Where are you getting this from?
166 - Yes because the Conservatives never had budget deficits did they? Taken as a whole this government has been too profligate but debt as a percentage of GDP is lower than it was in 1997. Things aren’t brilliant but the hystery is misplaced as well.
173, do you mean national debt?
This government has happily watched the country fuel their spending habits through excessive borrowing propped up by an inflated housing market.
Not to mention official stats don’t include:
the £100bn exposure to Northern Rock
billions on PFI schemes
167 A pretty tough for Labour to hold though. Not like she got kicked out of Torfaen or anything.
Does anyone have a link to website showing a map of political control of our local councils post-Thursday?
Best I’ve found is this on the Telegraph website, which allows you to look but only by region (which spoils the effect a bit!):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/local-elections-map/
But it does show how totally the Tories now dominate local government (in England & Wales) and how Labour are being wiped off the map politically. Only in the North East do Labour still dominate, and Yorkshire & Humber is the only other region where they control more councils than the Tories - but only by a 4 to 3 margin even there. I’ll say that again - in just TWO of 10 regions do Labour have more councils than the Tories. If more Yorkshire councils had gone to the polls last week, I suspect that would have been just one region.
I’d like a national map though just to see that sea of blue, which should focus some Labour minds I think.
In particular, just click on the West Midlands. It’s the bluest region of the lot, even more than the South East. I’m not kidding!
In my own North West region, the Tories control 14 councils to Labour’s 8. Yep, Lancashire & Cheshire, a part of the country where the Tories “just can’t break through” we are told, and yet they control nearly twice as many councils as Labour in this so called socialist heartland.
Nick Palmer will feel very vulnerable looking at that East Midlands map too.
Are there still no C&N markets?
I want to reinvest Boris on a Tory gain.
171. But in terms of the effect on wage levels, net immigration hides the true effect. Many of those emigrating are MUCH richer, the middle classes going to Australia, Canada and the United States, and even those Eastern Europeans returning home are richer than those arriving. So we need to look at total immigration levels, rather than just net, which was at about 600k in 2004.
Reducing inflation overall is a good thing. But the problem with a policy that reduces it only in one area (low skilled wages) is that it masks high inflation in other areas (house prices). Thus interest rates are kept low, which further encourages the high inflation in certain markets.
I wasn’t defending Ave It, I was just adding food for thought to the conversation. The government policies weren’t “ludicrous”, but they were mismanaged.
176 - to clarify, I mean a map showing control of ALL councils and not just the 159 that had polls last week.
from the previous thread………..at 5.08pm Jack W asked Gaz to “spill the beans”……but there has not been a response (total apologies if i have missed it), so here we go:
Carlisle…..Dalston………47.4% turnout
Trevor Allison (LibDem) 1151
Gaz (Con) 928
Labour 216
LD maj 223
…….a couple of weeks ago on the SeanF Locals thread (where Sean
suggested that Carlisle should be a Con gain) even I mooted that Gaz might win. There were two elements to this: firstly, Trevor had been quite ill for a long time last year; secondly, he was defending a majority gained in 2004 of one. Yes, it was almost toss of the coin time, but now there is a degree of comfort.
…….if Gaz is around……better luck next time.
….a final thought about turnout, which Gaz was scathing in his comments that in my County Council Division in 2005 we achieved 75%
…..for the past three District Council elections my ward has achieved 61%; 61%; 62%…..it’s all about energising your electorate.
Jack W…….trust that satisfies your curiosity.
172 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7372025.stm
Yes if inflation is too high interest rates have to rise. However what if inflation is low but there is an asset price boom? Do you increase interest rates to stop that boom and thus lower growth despite there being no inflation threat? Answers to Alan Greenspan.
My evidence is simple. RPIX has remained under 4%. It is currently 3.5%, at the top of the 1.5%-3.5% target range. The BoE would likely not have cut interest rates as often as they have if they were under this target. However it is my judgement that it would only have made about 25 or 50 basis points difference, they would simply have had to write more letters to the Chancellor. The inflation (commodity driven) we have is not easily prevented by higher interest rates and you need to weigh the impact on growth.
As I said immigration will have had some effect on house prices but is unlikely to have caused the boom. But I would be interested in research into its effects.
171 168 - “The ONS is being made independent.”
Prove it.
“Net immigration has been running at c. 200-250k per year since 2004.”
Where has this figure come from
“Yes this will have reduced inflation, which is a good thing in many ways.”
Not if your wages have been reduced in real terms
“The problem of how to control asset booms is one all central banks have had to grapple with. I don’t think the answer is to not try to reduce inflation, because then interest rates would be too low.”
Exactly, you should explain this to Gordon.
“House price increases have happened for structural reasons.”
Whaich structural reasons?, I will accept that more people are single but what else?
“The government probably should have done more to dampen things down (although that wouldn’t have been popular) but they have hardly fueled it”
They have fuelled it for exactly the reasons stated above.
172 Correct I was so cited and I had been polled by Yougov despite not living in London as apparently were many others . Anthony Wells came on this site and said that this was part of an internal Yougov survey not for a public opinion poll , as were the strange questions I answered asking me to choose who I would vote for between several stereotype council election candidates .
158, i wouldnt panic.
178 - Sure I’m not saying all the governments policies are perfect, which ones are? However I think people are being too harsh. The government was advised by its civil servants that immigration from the accession countries would be much lower than it was. They based their decision to allow the immigration based on that information. And as the link above shows this wave of immigration is likely to be temporary. I.e. the flows from Eastern Europe are likely to decline.
176 Remind us who controls your own council of Burnley , Bob ?
House price increases have happened for structural reasons
Rubbish. They happened mostly because of a massive loosening in lending standards and unsustainably low (as we now see) mortgage rates.
The supply-related factors, i.e ‘low’ levels of housebuilding played only a minor role - this role has been bigged up by speculators wanting to find a justification for high prices and by a government keen as mustard to cover rural England with millions of noddy boxes to try to curb its Tory tendencies.
182 - http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/announcements/announcing-the-new-uk-statistics-authority-website/index.html
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=260&Pos=2&ColRank=2&Rank=1000
Structural reasons for high house prices - reduced number of occupants per dwelling, low supply due to planning laws, a strong economy causing high demand.
The Tories really should win Crewe & Nantwich, whether you define it as marginal, safe or whatever. The Tories are in second with the wind at their backs and the Government are deeply unpopular. That alone ought to be enough to guarantee victory, but with the Labour party in full-on headless chicken mode, they should be doing this blindfold. I regard the Lib Dems as potentially more serious contenders to the Tories than Labour in this by-election.
The Tories really should win Crewe & Nantwich, whether you define it as marginal, safe or whatever. The Tories are in second with the wind at their backs and the Government are deeply unpopular. That alone ought to be enough to guarantee victory, but with the Labour party in full-on headless chicken mode, they should be doing this blindfold. I regard the Lib Dems as potentially more serious contenders to the Tories than Labour in this by-election.
186 - well it’s not Labour any more, after 35 years of power! They now only have 6 more seats than the Tories - it used to be 30+ more a decade ago.
But some minor party has managed to seize overall control now, probably due to some dodgy and misleading leaflets they’ve been sticking through doors over the past month. Shame on them.
188. But there were clearly two things going on in the housing market. A long term structural influenced trend, and a bubble on top of it.
167 - I would argue that is a structural reason. Our economy has had an unprecedented 15-year run of low inflation and low interest rates with continuous growth. One of the downsides to this is increased demand for housing.
I find it bizarre when Conservatives seek to blame the government for everything when they want it smaller. Banks chose to loosen lending standards not the government. I think they should be regulated more, but after the Redwood commission last year the Conservatives said there should be less.
Have you read the Barker report? A senior economist arguing that low supply was exactly the problem.
185 While I think there is some truth in what you say I note you didn’t reply to the point about debt.
I think the UK public debt is far far worse than the statistics indicate. Firstly because of the insanity of PFI, but secondly because the state owns so little compared to other European countries at least. So there is nothing to flog off.
192 - Sure but that is what happens to markets and there is not necessarily much the government can do about it.
Sorry Socrates I was mistaken earlier, the ONS is already independent.
193 is for 187.
186, 191: and I should add that the new LD council leader is also a long-term PPC for the LDs in the Westminster seat. It will be interesting to see how people’s experiences of a LD-run council in the next 2 years (after 2 years already of a join LD-Tory run council) influence how willing they are to vote for him at the next GE. Or will that keep the seat in Labour’s hands? Or let the Tories back through as contenders?
The fact that he’s a Blackburn Rovers supporter (not widely known locally, yet…) may not help his chances either.
194 - I’m sorry but I haven’t got time to respoond to every point, as I am under attack from a number of posters! While I agree there is off-balance sheet debt national debt as a percentage of GDP would still be under 50% which is lower than a lot of other countries and not a major problem.
Also, PFI is debt in a difference sense to traditional debt. Rather than the government paying a mortgate for the assets that have been built they are paying to rent those assets. It is a subtle difference but a difference nonetheless.
The public deficit as a percentage of GDP is also lower than it was under Lamont I believe.
167, following on from 175.
True, Preseli is not Torfaen.
But, the swing against Tamsin was 8.6 per cent in 2007. I think only Gower recorded a bigger swing to the Tories. For comparison, the swing to the Tories in Bridgend was 0.7 per cent, V of Glamorgan 4 per cent ,V of Clywd 7.4 per cent, Clwyd West 4.1 per cent.
She was always gonna lose the seat, but she lost it badly.
186: Oh yes - any thoughts on neighbouring Pendle, Mark S?
180 Ian S. Thanks.
197 I thought you were quite convincing until then! PFI isn’t really different at all - it’s just an accounting trick. Why exclude it from the comparison with other countries who actually own their schools and hospitals and do not have to pay for their use in years to come, except in the usual way through transparent issuance of debt.
And it isn’t really a mortgage either because in many cases the company gets to keep the assset at the end of the contract.
Nobody is copying PFI because it has been a disaster from the point of view of the taxpayer - particularly if you are not planning to snuff it in the next thirty years.
And as I said a fairer balance sheet would also include state assets of which we have very few - once you do that then our numbers looks pretty poor compared to a lot of comparable countries.
Still it could be worse we could be Italy..
201 - You are right that these things should be on the balance sheet. My point is that a) this wouldn’t make a massive difference and b) it is the kind of thing the government should get into debt for, investment rather than consumption.
I’m against PFI but it is not a complete disaster. It has a much better record at completing on time and on budget. Also I know of PFI deals where the asset goes into public ownership at the end of the contract.
As for assets, not sure what effect that would have. My overall point stands. While this government has not been the best in terms of debt it is far from being the worst.
199 No idea what went wrong there , I was expecting 3 losses and 1 gain as defending 11 out of the 16 seats was not feasible . Got the 1 gain right though . I am sure there will be an inquest locally .
203
That’d be because the budgets are always so bloody enormous - and the government didn’t give a toss because
1. They didn’t have to pay just now.
2. It didn’t appear on the balance sheet
Very interesting site here in regards to superdelegates:
http://www.politico.com/superdelegates/
Obama is only 10 behind after picking another two up today. With only over 200 left to play for we are reaching the end game. With North Carolina having a lot more super delegates at stake tomorrow than Indiana if Obama wins big and picks up the majority of delegates and keeps it within a few delegates in Indiana then it’s looking very hard for Clinton.
203. Perhaps the voters are simply sick of the Lib Dems?
203 as soon as people see through how useless LD councils are, they soon go back to Con or LD
LD councils = LOL
204 - I don’t think that is true actually. From my experience the government has squeezed PFI deals, in some cases too much, but this is not supported empirically.
Remember, the costs do appear in the governments revenue budgets so they do have an interest in keeping the costs down. I’ve had the PFI debate on here before and have not had an adequate answer as to how the government can carry out large infastructure projects without them running over budget.
188 the IPPR is a new labour thinktank and have an agenda, I consider there research irrelevent. So here is a link from migrationwatch.
http://www.migrationwatchuk.com/outline_of_the_problem.asp
I suppose in regards the ONS we will see how independent it truly is. The fact that Brown suggested it and the fact that his other great feat of independence ie the Bank of England turned out to be not so independent after all (who chooses the commitee members?, who sets the rules? and then who blames any problems on the bank? -see northern Rock) leaves me sceptical.
193 “Our economy has had an unprecedented 15-year run of low inflation” debateable historically maybe, but so was 1979-1997 in comparison to 1974-79. ”
and low interest rates” true leading to a debt fuelled boom
“with continuous growth. I have problems with growth figures that for example include but to let appreciation as part of it.
“One of the downsides to this is increased demand for housing.” exacerbated by uncontrolled immigration and a credit boom.
“I find it bizarre when Conservatives seek to blame the government for everything when they want it smaller.” silly generalisation
“Banks chose to loosen lending standards not the government.”
So its the banks fault theres a surprise Macavity is back.
207 Not much sign of that in Watford .
209 - “188 the IPPR is a new labour thinktank and have an agenda, I consider there research irrelevent. So here is a link from migrationwatch.”
Migrationwatch are equally an agenda-driven anti-immigration thinktank. Is their research any more valid?
210. Indeed - or in the pathetic handful of other councils the Lib Dems still control.
209 - Ha! You reject the IPPR as a think tank but site migration watch. Hmmm… they’re not pushing any agenda are they? You must be quite a narrow-minded and blinkered person to disciss research because of its source without actually examining the research itself.
We will see what happens over the next few years but I think migration from Eastern Europe will slow down. People who want to come here will have done so already.
There is little point debating with you because in your eyes everything is terrible and it is all the governments fault and any data that doesn’t support your point of view isn’t ‘independent’.
On lending standards, yes it was the banks at fault. Did the government force them to loosen their lending criteria or force people to borrow beyond their means? No. Where is the conservative faith in the market and personal responsibility? As I said the conservatives wanted less regulation, not more, which would have made things worse.
184 Yokel, I’m not exactly panicking over my Hillary +16% to win North Carolina, but I certainly think it will be much closer on this handicapped basis appeared the case just s few days ago and probably within 3% or 4% I would think. As such the insurance at 3.5/1 looks fair value - put it this way I certainly wouldn’t be taking Ladbrokes odds of 0.16/1 on Hillary now winning!
210 LOL - clearing them out soon.
Just warming up for the Con gain Watford in the GE!
Just watched a programme on National Geographic on the death of the sun. Coming sooner - end of the LDs!!!!!
210 Mark to provide an analogy which you will appreciate:
LDs when they first arrive look like a shiny new coin! Then they tarnish and people realise they are a load of shyte and get rid of them!!
She doesn’t take losing too well. You can watch for some toys being thrown from a pram when she gets beaten.
They also better make sure they top up the party coffers since she spent nearly £1,500 more than Paul Davies in 2007.
I also seem to remember her attacking Davies for not living in the constituency, wonder if she’ll bang on about carpet-bagging in this campaign?
There was a massive swing against her because she seems totally graceless. I think picking someone for her name a retrograde step.
Anyway…
From the local paper in 2007:
Labour’s Tamsin Dunwoody was defiant in defeat, saying she was proud of what the Labour government and parliament had achieved, adding that the result was “not a defeat, it is the beginning of another fight. We may be down, but we will come back.”
She claimed that the defeat had not occurred due to a decrease in her votes, saying: “What happened was an increased turnout of the rural areas. My vote stayed absolutely steady, it didn’t decline at all” .
Speaking on the wide gap between the Conservative and Labour votes, Ms Dunwoody also slammed the campaign tactics of her opposition parties: “I think unfortunately some parties scaremongered and used gimmickry to frighten people, and I think that did have an impact on some voters. I don’t consider that to be the politics of integrity. That’s not the way I fight, but I fight.”
188
“Banks chose to loosen lending standards not the government.”
And who supervises the Banks?
The FSA and the BOE.
And who appoints both?
The Government.
The Government can choose to force banks to tighten lending standards — if it WANTS to.
M King bleats on about moral hazard and yet does nothing for 5 years. The man is a walking disaster area . History will judge him harshly.
If Gordon Brown wanted to reign in bank lending, it could have been done within 24 hours. Period…
Anyone want a N Rock 125% loan with no deposit?
Says it all.
211 objectively speaking probably not, but if Kieran states that opinions from the IPPR are fact then I don’t see why I shouldn’t bring up migrationwatch and state them as fact.
214
Cover your bet now!
Obama will win NC!
218 - As I say upthread the government should have regulated the better and more. But the Banks had a responsibility as well. And the opposition said ragulation should be reduced!
*regulation*
213 and equally there is little point in debating with you as you seem to take everything the Government says on blind trust masked with a thin pretence of rational argument.
Watford constituency ward totals last week
Con 7618 Lab 4272 LibDem 13751 Green 2340 Others 18
Its a 2 horse race ….. for 2nd place .
176: Bob, looking at an electoral map as you suggest I see two councils in the area where the Tories failed to take control or even come close last year. One is Nottingham. The other is Broxtowe.
223 - No, I use evidence where I can to support my claims. Instead you just assert prejudices. I don’t take the government on ‘blind trust’, for example their Iraq dossier was clearly tripe, but I think it reasonable to assert ONS statistics from long-running data series.
You on the other hand, seem to believe there are conspiracies to defraud everywhere. Not Mohammed al-Fayed are you by any chance?
176. I had an hour to waste so I’ve totted up the total councils controlled by each party in the UK based on the Telegraph map. It may be one or two out but it certainly makes the picture clear.
Con 183 councils(49%)
Lab 43 councils (11%)
LD 26 councils (7%)
NOC 126 councils (32%)
IND 3 councils (1%)
Total 383
Pity the Conservatives failed to win Broxtowe Council. However, they outpolled LAbour in Broxtowe constituency and no amount of spin can alter that.
169, 193. The 0.25% cut had an effect on sentiment that didn’t just affect the average punter. Banks were able to loosen lending standards so much because their models for the most part assumed that average nominal house prices wouldn’t (be allowed to) fall. That model broke in America first and now nominal house prices are falling on a year-on-year basis in the UK too.
224 YAWN its a local election - when the GE comes in you will be creamed!
I’m now watching ‘Star Trip Enterprise’ - some vulcans have crash landed in 1950s USA and gone in a bar. They look as out of place as LDs in government!!
226. The ONS is not seen as a really credible source, and hasn’t been for years, along with most of the civil service ever since new labour has come to power. For instance, statistics over how many non-domiciles lived in the UK were not available when the tories asked for them. But suddenly when the government needed them, they appeared as if by magic. The civil service, and I speak as one, have become very politicised by Gordon Brown in particular, who use us as a tool against their opponants. The CSA is a mess of a department, but none of it’s members are even allowed to admit they have any problems. Same goes for the rest.
217 - I might be mistaking 2007 for 2005 and Mr Davies for Stephen Crabb. I note Paul Davies had previously contested the NAW elections before winning in 2007. Mea Culpa.
It doesn’t alter the fact that Tamsin Dunwoody suffered two swings against her in the two elections she fought and that the 2007 one was notably large,
231. Whoops, meant civil servants. Makes me look like I’m a civil service!
225 - are you planning to set up a cats home when you are able to retire in two years’ time?
What are your friends in the 3 Nottingham seats, and Gedling, and Sherwood doing when they are provided with a new career direction at the same time?
Alan Meale might just hang on!
226 No you use Labour party funded think tanks and massaged government figures and call them fact. Also giving way on things that are blatantly wrong (such as dodgy dossier) does not make you any more reasonable when you spout the government line on for example immigration or inflation. It is just a poor technique to fool the gullable into thinking you are honest joe.
224. So how come there’s no Lib Dem MP in Liverpool, Mark? The Lib Dems have had overwhelming local election results in some of the seats there for years.
220 Philippe, er…… yes, I think we’d just about worked that out. The bet in question however is on a handicapped basis, with Hillary + 16% and Obama -16%, which makes it just a tad trickier!
Nick won’t hold his seat if the general election is held with the polls reading as they are. He knows that and we all know it.
But you can’t seriously expect him to come here on a public forum and state “You’re all right, I’m fcked” can you?
Stop goading him. It’s not nice.
229 - I agree it had an effect on sentiment and lending standards but the problem is structural rather than the cause of one base rate change.
231 - For a start the ONS has now been made independent, hardly a sign of politicisation. And this government is hardly the first, Thatcher was notorious for politicising the civil service.
Clearly the ONS is not infallible and there are examples where it does things for political ends, particularly when getting data for the first time. However I see no reason to disbelieve long-term data series which have not seen their methodology change. If there was systematic deception surely there would have been a whistle blower by know.
235 - Gosh you really are bitter aren’t you? I’m not being deceptive. I assert my opinion and then give the source of my evidence. People can judge the voracity for themselves.
I don’t ’spout the government line’. I defend the government where I think people are being unreasonable and hysterical, but concede they have made mistakes where I think they have.
Inflation is an example. I’ve said it is clearly running at at least 4% and the government is stupid to pretend otherwise. But that it is largely the result of commodity price rises for which there is little short-term remedy and that there is no evidence of a wage-price spiral that would lead to sustained high inflation. The ONS publishes 3 inflation figures and people are free to interpret them in whichever way they choose. But to argue as you seem to that there is an organised conspiracy is just daft.
239 so now we come to the root of the new Labours beliefs which boils down to we believe thatcher and the tories were corrupt when they were in power therefore we can be at least as corrupt and are justified in doing so.
“Whiter than white” LOLOLOLOLOL :-):-):-)
241 - No I never justified Labour’s politicisation of the civil service. I was merely pointing out that all governments do it to one degree or another, and I don’t think this one has been particularly bad.
240. The main problem with the the governments stance over inflation is it’s constant repetition of the 2.5% figure. No-one believes that, it’s so wrong it’s unbelieveable. My bus pass has jumped £6 a month over the last year. Doesn’t sound like much, but add that on to everything else and you get a problem. Brown etc have been denying this for months, saying inflation is at a lower figure. That may be true of white goods such as tv’s and washing machines as cheap chinese imports help drop the price, however those things are bought irregularly. Utilities are a neccessity, as is food, both of which have rocketed, and are not being reflected. Brown and the Labour government look stupid, but don’t seem to be able to recognise this.
FAO Morus.
From our discussion earlier today about Senate seats, there is another NC Senate poll out showing Hagen only trailing Dole by 7 points (48-41), this time from Research 2000.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/1/122149/4184/419/507058
Calm down, chaps. No need to get personal.
In my opinon, one advantage that Labour have left for any incoming Tory Government is that they have bloated the civil service to such an extent that BILLIONS can be saved by slimming central bureaucracy with no negative effects.
It’s the great untapped source of tax cuts and should be cherished.
243 - I’ve said much the same on here before. IMO the government line should be ‘yes inflation is up, but that is largely due to commodity prices over which we have little control and this should be a temporary phenomenon’.
245. Quango hunting abound first.
246. They won’t though, and it’s too late now. Months of denial and spin over the true figure have meant if the government do admit it they look lik liars.
240 Touched a nerve there did I kieran?
For the final time Brown uses the CPI as the headline figure so that people e.g. nurses do not feel as if they are getting a raw deal when in reality they are. That is why you have no wage/price spiral but frankly it is pretty sick as what you are doing is stealthily reducing peoples standard of living.
Evening all
Re: 245 & 247: Ah, the unquantified pot of waste at the end of the tax cutting rainbow. To be honest, the Conservatives enjoyed setting up their share of quangos in the 80s so a slight case of pots and kettles.
Is there a huge reserve of waste in central Government ? Undoubtedly some exists but billions, year on year, no, can’t see it myself.
176.
This is a useful map. If you click on Bury MBC and check the detail which shows past results there is a mistake as it shows the Council being under Control of ‘Other’ in 2006. In fact it was NOC as it was last year. The only difference is that in 2006 Labour were the largest Party and ran a minority administration. Last year the Conservatives were the largest Party and ran the Council as a minority administration.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=564198&in_page_id=1770
No peace for the wicked!
250. True, however there’s even more now. Even the government has admitted there’s too many, they just don’t seem to do anything about it.
Will the bin tax U-Turn be binned?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=564030&in_page_id=1770&ct=5
249 - Do you read my posts?
The problem I have debating with you is that you seem to think I’m the government and that I agree with everything they do and say. I don’t. So I’m not doing anything that is ‘pretty sick’.
As for your argument, I’ve agreed with you and cuddles that RPI is far more indicative of inflation than CPI and the government claiming otherwise has undermined its generally good inflation record. Another example where its spin is very bed.
As for public sector pay deals in an ideal world I would like people in the public secotr to be paid much more for the service they do and for taxes to rise to pay for that. I don’t think that is going to happen though. However this government has increased the pay of public sector workers in real terms. The last couple of years have seen the first real squeeze. Before that I was reading right-wing publications bleating about how public sector pay was higher than in the private-sector and it was all unfair. Also, the headline figures don’t take into account increments. Many teachers for example get extra increases as they rise up pay spines.
Stopping a wage/price spiral may hurt in the short term but it will be benefical in the long-term unless you want to go back to the 1970s. So, while the current situation is not ideal it is not the disastor you make it out to be either.
In reference to an earlier post about Crewe and Nantwich, The Tories, marshalled by Eric Pickles have hit the ground running, with three leaflets already , and (according to Ben Brogan) with no sign of Labour..New or Old..
I just wondered(whilst watching(again) St Helens stuff Wigan 57-16) whether the infrastucture within Labour still exists, or has it collapsed along with the vote?? Is anyone close to the action in C&N ???
254. Oh good grief.
217/232
I don’t blame Tamsin one bit for being ungracious in defeat in 2007 in the WA election.If you had been here, which I assume you were not as you quote from a local paper,things were said in the year leading up to the election, which left a bitter taste, certainly in my mouth.
I am biased, but most reasonable people down here would say that she was a very hard working AM and minister and whilst i agree that she will not find it easy at Crewe I wish her the best of luck.
INDIANA - Largest Counties
MARION (Indianapolis, state capital) roughly 17% of Dem vote
LAKE (Gary, northeastern IN) 12%
ST. JOSEPH (South Bend, far northcentral IN, Notre Dame U) 5%
ALLEN (Fort Wayne, northwest IN) 5%
PORTER (Portage, northeastern IN, Valparaiso U) 3%
VANDERBURGH (Evansville, southwestern IN) 3%
MONROE (Bloomington, southcentral IN, Indiana U) 3%
HAMILTON (Indpls northern suburbs) 3%
MADISON (Anderson, central IN) 2%
LAPORTE (Michigan City, northeast IN) 2%
TIPPICANOE (Lafayette, northcentral IN, Purdue U) 2%
DELAWARE (Muncie, eastcentral IN) 2%
VIGO (Terra Haute, westcentral IN, Indiana State U) 2%
ELKHART (Elkhart, far north central IN) 2%
CLARK (Jeffersonville, southeastern IN, Louiville KY suburbs) 2%
o/t
I don’t know if this has appeared before but Richard Holme - Lord Holme has died.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2248189.0.LibDem_peer_Lord_Holme_dies_aged_71.php
250 - I think you’re wrong. I worked with the team on Dod’s Civil Service Companion for a few years and each year we had to update the staffing figures.
Accross all departments, all directorates and all NDPBs over three years I can only rememember a few numbers falling over three years. We continually adjusted numbers up.
CONTINUALLY.
You would not have believed some of the increases if the figures had come from Tory HQ, but they were from the government departments themselves.
That’s billions in waste in anyone’s money.
255 Hi Kieran, I dont read your posts.
Just FYI.
255 I do read your posts and they are formulaic, so normally you will agree in the first half of your answer then you will nevertheless come up with the government line in the second half. So first of all you say that the RPI is a better measure (which we agree although not perfect) but then you tell me that public sector pay has increased (firstly I dispute this - who are we talking about certainly not nurses - and secondly it is Brown’s line word for word).
Stopping a wage/price spiral is not beneficial for the workers that you are underpaying be it due to immigration keeping wages lower or the CPI keeping wages lower. Indeed longer term you will continue to tell them that their wage rise is lower than inflation and that immigration is good for the economy for as long as you can get away with it.
237. Can someone help Phillipe Magnan with this thing called ‘betting’…. it may be a language issue, alternativley he is struggling intellectually to deal with advanced concepts like ‘handicaps’ and ‘cover bets’.
263 should say higher than inflation.
264
he is not alone
258 Valleyboy, it is reasonable to look at all the Labour -> Tory swings in the Welsh Assembly 2007 elections and ask who had the worst swings.
Someone who had one of the worst swings against her was Tamsin. This is a fact that is easily verified.
If “most reasonable people down here would say that she was a very hard working AM and minister”, why did she have such a poor result?
258 - Do you think she is a good enough campaigner to win in C&N? You suggest you will be supporting her but that’s not much use to me trying to work out if she has a chance!
Why will the good burghers of Cheshire vote for her?
All commentary seems to think that tomorrow is crucial to the Democratic candidate race. I disagree. Irrespective of the tomorrow’s results (unless something crazy happens), Clinton with run until early June and see how the Superdelagates split. If it is still close after the split, she will try and get Florida/Michigan re-instated. If not, she’ll give up.
New PPP Primary Poll for Indiana :
Clinton 51% .. Obama 46%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Indiana_Release_050508.pdf
163 - I’m talking about wages across the public sector and the changes over the last 11 years. Pay has definitely increased in real terms using any measure of inflation. As I say people on the right were complaining a couple of years back that pay had risen too much. I agree with criticisms where they are reasonable and supported by evidence, what I object to is hysteria.
Stopping a wage/price spiral is beneficial to workers because it is people that are low-paid who are worst his by rises in inflation. Disposible income is falling because of commodity driven inflation. It is better to have the pain now than much bigger pain later. I’ve said to Seant before that the government has not been honest about the effects of immigration on wage levels. On balance I think immigration adds a lot but there are clear costs. People who pretend there are no benefits are as absurd as those who pretend there are no costs.
I think the government should redistribute more through a more progressive tax system to help those on low-incomes to deal with these economic problems. What do you reckon?
264 In fairness to Philippe, he did spot a very profitable opportunity in backing Hillary on Intrade before and after she won the Pennsylvania Primary. Although her progress now appears to have been halted, if I remember correctly her price rose by over 50% from around 15 to 24 over about 10 days.
255 Kieran , when the Government states that public sector pay has increased “in real terms” on what inflation measure are they calculating that? RPI or CPI? Gordon can be a bit tricky on using the measure which suits.
Then over what period? In past two /three years public sector pay has been held below RPI so has been squeezed. It did however rise at or above RPI from 2002 to 2004, having been held down previous to that. Doesn’t really matter what happened three years ago though, its what happens today and tomorrow.
Sorry if posted before but Gordo’s not keen on giving up the bins tax…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7384394.stm
271 Rather than take the money in tax from the poorest then re-distribute it with complex formulae why not leave it in their pockets to start with? Then why subsidise bad employers by letting them pay minimum wage which the Government tops up?
269. I suspect the result tomorrow will be the same as Ohio/Texas and Pennsylvania. Clinton will do enough to keep fighting, but those who understand the maths will know she hasn’t done enough.
272. PfP, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt then (on your recommendation). The rubbish he has posted on my blog is ’so weak’… and no apology!
I’ve taken a look at his blog, but it is all in French (unfortunaly my schoolboy French is not so great).
274 That’s the second time the Daily Mail has been briefed that the bin tax will be dropped and the Mail has made a big story out of it. Mr Dacre doesn’t like being made to look a fool. Gordon isn’t helping himself here.
224,230,236.
Lib dem local election percentages are not areliable guide to Lib dems winning A GE seat.As meritocrat says where are the MP’s in Liverpool.However eventualy as with Birmingham Yardley the Lib Dems can win.
Generally I would deduct at least 20% from a local election % in a labour held seat to get near the GE %.This is partly because only half number of electors vote in Locals compared to GE.
That said, I do think the Lib Dems will win Watford next time.
Also if Labour don’t recover,then tactical voting by Tories in close Lab/lib margibnals may also occur(and tactical voting in from Labour voters in Lib held seats and even in close Con/Lib marginals.
rogerh
276. I agree, I just can’t underatnd why she isn’t a much bigger price - the only thing I can think of is that people think the Rules and Bylaws Commitee will reverse their previoud decison and bring the Florida/Michigan vote into play. I do’t agree. I think that in early June when the superdelegates, taking a lead from the delagtes, make the race over.
278 Gordo doesn’t do truth. Its all spin and deception. Would you buy a used car from him???
277
Man, I’m sorry; I posted an apology, but it did not went trough.
I’m pretty busy now with a masse of correction and excel sheets to fill in.
Good luck to everybody!
so you have proved you can think outside the box in terms of writing style, now lets see how you do in policy. What would help those on lower pay?
Raise tax thresholds (get rid of wasteful tax credits). Severly reduce immigration, even if that meant renegotiating our treaty with the EU, get Inflation figures that weight towards essentials i.e food, petrol, gas etc rather than Electrical goods, and make whoever produces the figures pay with their job if an external audit commisioned by all main parties proves they have biased it in any way.
282. Phillipe, no problem - apology accepted.
264
You are right : I plan to study spread-betting; I have no clue at all with ‘handicap’ and things like that.
The only stuff I know is betfair.com and intrade.com
I’ll begin to study how spreadfair.com works in a day or so.
Thanks for the advice; I really do appreciate.
New SUSA primary Poll for North Carolina :
Clinton 45% .. Obama 50%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=06dd4624-776e-440d-811a-79584a511f2f
273 - The comparison is RPI across the whole period of Labour government. I don’t have the figures to hand but distinctly remember complaints a couple of years ago about increases being too big. You’re right that only the here and know matters in terms of the politics but in terms of the government’s overall record the complete picture does matter. I’ve agreed that a squeeze is happening at the moemnt.
275 - The argument for tax credits are that they target the money to the low-paid. Increasing the personal allowance benefits everyone. An alternative would be to increase the basic and higher rate to compensate, but of course that would be politically unpopular. So I would agree with your criticism of the government here. I also think the minimum wage should be a bit higher than it is.
279 20% is very excessive IMHO , If that were the case the Conservatives would still be headind for a GE loss even based ion last week’s locals . My rule of thumb is circa 4,000 extra votes to allow for differential turnout more in areas of extremely low turnout in locals such as Hull and Liverpool .
I’m having a great time reading the comments under Gordon Brown’s “I promise to Listen and Lead” statement on Labour.org.
http://www.labour.org.uk/brown_promises_to_listen_and_lead
If this is what Labour members are saying, it is very interesting. Plenty of people telling him what to do, do evidence of listening.
Might liven up Crewe and Nantwich…
http://www.shanegreer.com/2008/05/05/miss-crewe-and-nantwich/
283 - As I say tax credits have a lot of problems and is probably not the optimum solution but it has had a big effect on millions of people’s standard of living. It also means you can get a negative tax rate for some. The old personal allowance chestnut as I say is very inefficient at targeting those on low incomes, unless you increase the basic and higher rates.
Reducing immigration is not a panacea. It would have a marginal effect on wages but would lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates, slower growth all things that would hurt the low-paid.
The ONS has moved to what you describe. There is a personal calculator on their website so you can find out your personal inflation rate.
286. That has African American support for Obama and turnout lower than has been the case recently. This could either be down to poor polling, or a post-Wright effect. We shall see.
290 she must be a good call to beat the LDs……
285 Buy Mike’s book, Phillippe!
290 -
She’s got at least two policies I’d vote for
291. Those without mortgages would surely benefit from higher interest rates.
296 - Most people on low-wages won’t have many savings to benefit.
291 Round and round we go. Ok last time as it is bed time
Tax credits are very wasteful, overly bureaucratic and are a disincentive to the lowest paid due to their complexity (which if I was cynical which you know I am was all intended, ie jobs for jobs sake {to reduce une,mployment figures} and too complex so less people will fill them out and therefore cost less.)
If you raise personal allowances it disproportionately helps the lower paid so I have no idea why you think it is inefficient (sorry but your argument makes no sense)
Why do you believe it would have a marginal effect on wages? Is there any proof or just supposition. If it has a marginal effect on wages how does it then lead to inflation (your argument does not make sense) and as I have repeated many times the lowest paid are largely getting less than inflation pay rises as it is.
If my employer increased my wage due to my own personal inflation then a personal inflation calculator may be useful but I have absolutely no idea why you think it has any relevence to our conversation. I hope we at least agree that food and fuel are more essential than cheap electrical goods for all people if not then you really need to have a think about that.
290 Perhaps Lembit Opik could dump his fiance and start dating her.
It may get him more publicity.
297. Perhaps, but it certainly wouldn’t help them as you claimed.
And as the main source of overall inflation from immigrants is wage inflation, if the wage effect is small, the inflation effect would be even smaller. And you have also got to consider the greater difficulty in receiving government services due to immigration.
298 - Raising the personal tax allowance is inefficient in terms of targeting help to the poor. That is because it is a tax cut for everyone. If you raise the tax allowance by £1000 you give everyone a tax cut who earns more than the new allowance i.e. c. £6,500. That means people earning 50k, 100k, 1m all get a tax cut. In contrast all the money spent on tax credits goes to those on lower incomes.
295.. but are they real policies or “augmented” ones???
274. So within 24 hours the much trumpated “fightback” falls apart! Incredible!
300 - Some people on low-incomes have a mortgage. They would be helped by lower interest rates.
298 - My point about the personal inflation calculator was that the ONS is actually being transparent and letting people know their own rate of inflation. Also, changing the official inflation rate won’t magically change the situation.
300 - On immigration, it is my view that it would only have a marginal effect on wages but I may be wrong. What it would do is create skills shortages in certain areas and reduce the overall capacity in the economy. As you yourself have pointed out those on low-incomes are worst hit by inflation, therefore any policy that increases it would be bad for them. My argument isn’t that reducing immigration wouldn’t have an economic benefit to some, but that you underplay the costs of such a policy. People’s real incomes have been rising for many years because of commodity driven inflation that will have to stop for the next couple of years.
303
In reality . in this case I don’t really blame Gordo, in as much it was others leaking suggested policy changes. not sure Gordo agreed with any of them. That of course is his problem, The Captain is no longer in command of the ship. Even the bosun’s mate can chip in without the threat of the cat o’ nine tails. Gordo’s authority… shot to pieces.
302 - Either way, she’s certain to get a significant rise in the opinion poles.
I’ll stop now.
306 LMAO
303 - astonishing!
Even by recent standards.
They are just making it up as they go along, day by day, crisis by crisis.
At least there was some semblence of credible government going on from 1993-97, despite all the other difficulties Major faced at that time. The current shower are offering nothing.
Keep digging, GB…
Just got back for a weekend away at a delightful wedding in GO’s homeland of Tatton.
I must pay a personal compliment to the voters of Llantwit Fardre (2 seats)
Margaret Burtonwood (Ind) 500 votes
David Stone (Lab) 404 votes
Bernard Channon (Lab) 440 votes
Joel Jones (Cons) 539 votes
Jools Jones (Plaid) 491 votes
Dennis Watkins (Plaid) 466 votes
- a Tory on Rhonnda Cynon Taff council - Anuerin Bevan will be turning in his grave at that.
Very interesting results elsewhere - I never thought I would see the day when there would be just 12 NuLab councillors (out of 60) on Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council - the only place they could win was Chesterton, a former mining area - amazing!
Going away to have a look now at the results on the (shadow) East Cheshire County Council, read in the Times that they reckon the Tories were about 5,000 votes ahead of NuLab in the wards that make up Crewe & Nantwich. Still I would expect Tasmin Dunwoody to retain some of Gwyneth’s personal vote - just how much I really don’t know - that’s the 64 million dollar question!
258 Gwynfa
I have posted here in the past that I believed that the hospital issue down here, where a vociferous campaign was whipped up, against a perceived threat that labour was about to close the hospital, cost Tamsin dear.Of course there was the national trend against labour as well.You had to be here to appreciate the strength of the campaign which came from all sides, not just the Tories.
To add a rider to all that and it is something I have thought about since, I think the fact is Preseli is returning to its natural Tory constituency and Tamsin was a victim of that move as well.I fully expect Preseli to remain in Tory hands for a number of elections to come.(unfortuntely)
280. Chris Trinder.
Good to see you posting again regularly and putting up some tips.
I linked to your website previously and was impressed with your betting successes in 06 and 07. I am impressed with any tipster who is prepared to put their record and reputation on the line by recording their betting intentions. Good luck to you.
How is 08 looking so far?
309 - Aneurin, not Anuerin!
286. Ummmmmmm
Oh Cripes (as Bozza would say) - not been on for a few days (enjoying the long weekend with the family) - came on thinking there might be some reasoned analysis of the local elections and all there is the the ussual Tory cheerleaders dishing the Lib Dems.
Given they won seats and councils, held their own against the Tories in the south and beat Labour into third place across England, I just don’t understand.
Last year when the Lib Dems clearly lost seats overall and got soundly trashed by the Tories in some areas I could understand it. This year it seems to be based on wishful thinking.
Anyway given what’s happened to Labour (the only losers on Thursday) the Tories should win C&N comfortably - if they don’t then there are significant strategic problems for them.
314 ‘all there is the usual Tory cheerleaders dishing the Lib Dems’
HE HE business as usual!
Is there any likelihood of a book being made on policies that will be put up that will be shot down within 24 hours. I rather suspect we are going to see a lot more flying kites. It does not augur well for joined up Govt. Listen and lead.. my eye…
WAY OT -
OMG, just switched on the boob tube for a quick mid-afternoon break - the Vancouver BC low-rent station is showing a “Matlock” rerun, circa 1984 staring Andy Giffiths as a southern version of Perry Mason.
Andy/Matlock is in court, for the defense naturally, today facing as the hapless prosecutor: FRED THOMPSON!
314 In article in tomorrows Times this leapt out at me
“Mr Brown faced further criticism from John Mann, MP for Bassetlaw, as he released analysis which showed that the BNP polled more votes than Labour in Ed Balls’s constituency in West Yorkshire”
A bit worrying that, and not just for Labour.
318 cont.
Meant to post the link (which as Gordon “Orange Blob” Photo accompanying it - Ouch)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3876639.ece
311. Stjohn, 08 is (I think) going approximately the same as 2006/2007 i.e. 40% profits (approx. £2.5K/quarter) - not enough to live on, but a good hobby to complement my work! The main problem is getting bets on - most of my accounts are limited now.
I’ll do half yearly accounts at end June 08.
BTW, what site did you link to me from?
Chris Trinder
http://kickingbets.blogspot.com
318 - If you’re looking for a backbencher who’s got the guts to weild a knife…Jon Mann could be your guy.
He was the one hitting the Tories over Derek Conway, but has also been instrumental in savaging Scargill and the NUM for helping certain solicitors siphon off ‘fees’ from compensation payouts to miners’ widows when in fact the government had already paid the legal bills. Doesn’t care about left or right, if something gets up his nose he’ll chase it until its dead - natural born attack dog.
317 LOL!
244 - Many thanks, Kieran. I think at 43D v 37D they’ve oversampled Democrats, but then that should be countered by the fact that the Dems are still split. Dole still has a slim lead amongst independents, but is only attracting 87% of Republicans. I think you might be right, and big enough coattails (Obama/Edwards?) might swing it. Cheers again.
Is Brown emotionally illeterate?
ttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3876639.ece
Brendan Brogan from the Mail was being interviewed on R4 earlier about the bins - he said his understanding was that the pilots had to be carried out, if only because of legally binding commitments, but that Brown had never been keen and was unlikely to sanction any extension after that. He didn’t seem to find any contradiction in it.
The fine print of the SUSA NC poll says that Obama is streets ahead (16%) among postal voters, presumably reflecting Obama’s organisational edge there, but that Clinton has a large margin among older voters, who may be more likely to vote on the day. On the whole I’d think he’ll win there by high single digits, judging by the general mix of polls, but I’d hate to put money on it.
NORTH CAROLINA largest counties
note: the percentages are based on analsysis of voter registration info from NC Secretary of State as of May 3, 2008.
NC Statewide registered voters:
Democrats = 45% of reg, GOP = 33%, Unaffilated = 21%
Whites = 75%, Black = 21%, All other = 4%
MECKLENBURG (Charlotte, southernwest Piedmont) 10% of NC Dem reg
WAKE (Raleigh,northeast Piedmont, capital, NC State U) 9%
GUILFORD (Greensboro, northwest Piedmont) 6%
DURHAM (Durham, northeast Piedmont, Durham U) 4%
CUMBERLAND (Fayetteville, central Tidewater, Ft Bragg) 4%
FORSYTH (Winson-Salem, northwest Piedmont, Wake Forest U) 3.5%
BUNCOMBE (Asheville, central Mountains) 3%
ORANGE (Chapel Hill, northeast Piedmont, U of NC) 2%
NEW HANOVER (Wilmington, southeast Tidewater) 2%
ROBESON (Lumberton, southeast Tidewater, Lumbee Indians) 2%
PITT (Greenville, central Tidwater) 2%
GASTON (Gastonia, southwest Piedmont) 2%
On tomorrows primary.
I predict:
8% win for Clinton in Indiana
12% for Obama in NC
Effectively it’s a stale mate.
There’s strange polling going on in NC –> There is a theory that it all depends on white/black turnout numbers. Obama is heavily favoured due to the 35% ish of AA turnout. If its higher, his win could be near 20%, lower and he could lose.
IN polls favour Clinton, except Zogby who has Obama leading. I think Clinton has won here, the NE Indiana aka Obama/Chicago area is not getting Obama a big enough lead. NW/Southern Indiana is a strong Clinton area 20-40% lead. heck, even Southern Illinois vote Clinton, I’m guessing Indiana will follow the same suit.
325 - If anything that SUSA are showing Obama ahead by people who have voted already is a sign of accuracy, as Jack W has pointed out turnout is up most in his best areas.
323 - It’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.
If anyone was in any doubt about Bill wanting Hillary to win they should look at this. He is visiting up to 6 small towns a day to stump for her.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/04/AR2008050401846.html
oops ‘illiterate’ not ‘illeterate’ - I’m as bad as Gordon
326 - in noting universities located in larger NC counties, inadvertantly left off:
DURHAM - home also of NC Central U
GREENSBORO - home of NC Ag & Tech State U
May be some others I’ve omitted, but have to get back to work!
328 - This is another reason why I think that Clinton will come closer in NC, she has three people who are all over the state like a rash. In comparison Obama has been little seen, preferring to campaign in Indiana. By focusing on their least secure state they are probably going to end up with two relatively close races!
328. SUSA has AA’s at 32% lower than the other pollsters. It still gives Obama a lead of 5%.
Secondly, AA are likely to have “already voted”. Official estimates: 13% already voted. SUSA 25% have already voted with a 16% Obama lead.
HUGE difference, I’m wondering if they are oversampling “already voted” - which gives Obama a bigger lead than actual.
328 - That’s a great article. Why he didn’t start on that path earlier is a question they will ask themselves in their long retirement under President Obama
Page 2 lead headline tomorrow in the Sun. “We’re CREWEsing for a bruising”
I’m delighted some people think Clinton is going to make a bit of a fight of it in NC.
For a while I thought I was the only one.
327 - Don’t know about your precise % predictions, but your analysis is right on methinks.
Several important factors in both Hoosier & Tarheel States:
–older voters, regular primary voters, good for Clinton
–Black voters, approx 30-40% of Dem primary turnout, higher good for Obama depends on actual African American turnout
–suburban progressives in Charlotte & its surburbs (Mecklenburgh Co), the Research Triangle (Ralieh, Durham, Chapel Hill) and the Piedmont Triad (Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point) should be a good group for Barack, but Hillary fights back with women
–students in large (UNC) and smaller (Davidson) schools in the South’s most developed network of public & private colleges & universities, should be plus for Obama
–the “Mayberry” vote in places like the mythical TV town, which was modeled on the real Mount Airy, NC the hometown of Andy Griffith (in Surry Co) and Pilot Mountain (not Mt. Pilot as in the TV show) is just down the road
Note that the dozen counties listed above account for just 47% of statewide Democratic registration. The other 88 will thus have their say. Futher note that 37 of these smaller counties have Black registration percents higher than the statewide average, including 6 where African Americans are a majority of registered voters.
335 - Hey, Yokel, just saw that NI is making a contrbution to the Crewe & Nantwich by-election.
As Crewe goes, so goes . . . Tralee!
326: I’m confused. Isn’t the AA proportion larger than 21%, SSI? Or maybe it is, but only among Democrats?
334: And I don’t understand the headline either, sorry David! Creweing? Yes, I know the by-election is in Crewe, but how is it a verb? Perhaps I should go to bed!
334 - Crewesing = Cruising
It’s not THAT late, Nick!
Yes, but…cruising to a bruising, maybe, but FOR a bruising? I dunno, just being pedantic, but it doesn’t seem to work, as puns only work if they remind you of something - a song title, a slang expression, whatever. Maybe there’s a reference I don’t know - Rambo saying “You’re a-cruisin’ for a bruisin’, man” or something?
It’s a fairly common saying. Try googling it.
I think it may originate from a boxer but I don’t have time to trawl and try to attribute it to anyone atm
341. Are you joking Nick? Perhaps you are satirising the imputation that Labour MPs are laughably out of touch. Or maybe not.
Cruising for a bruising is a VERY well known phrase, anyhow. It even makes an appearance as one of the “spoken asides” on Pink Floyd’s Dark Side of the Moon.
You know the Pink Floyd, Nick. A successful pop combo from the 70s.
341. Have you been drinking? lol
SPIN
334-340
240-246
SF
335.5-335.6
246.5-247.5
Its a shame as a moderate-Labour resident of Bournemouth East that snowflake 5 is no longer a visitor as she publicly admitted to living in Southamoton Test ( a seat I know intiamtely,mainly from happier times leading up to the 97 GE
),but I would like to hear he reaction to the Tories (albeit narrowly) taking overall control of Southampton City Council (This is a council who has 1/3 up for 3 years,then one off..which is next year-FWIW,I suspect unacceptable cuts in nursery education,social services will soon lead to defections,by-elections,and their stay will be short (hopefully)
The Place of Indiana & North Carolina in US Geography
Both IN and NC are places inbetween.
In the lower Midwest - the heart of the “Old Northwest” - if you’re looking longitudially from north to south, the state of Indiana lies between the Great Lakes (Michigan in this case) and the Ohio River. And from a latitudianl perspective, Indiana is a buffer zone between the mini empires that are Ohio to the east and Illinois to the west.
By the same token, North Carolina occupies an inbetween geographic status in the American South. For starters, it lies geographicall, historically and emotionally as a buffer zone between Virginia and South Carolina. Note that North Carolinians consider themselves an oasis of sensibility between two poles of arrogance; while both Virginians & South Carolinans have been apt to see their Tarheel (orginally a prejorative meaning a poor pineywood redneck) neighbors as a tad uncouth, to put it mildly.
And North Carolina is famously and beautifully situated between some of the greatest beaches and splendid mountains (or visa versa) anywhere on earth. And the middle bit isn’t all that bad, really.
Indeed, for both Indiana and North Carolina, the real interesting thing is the internal geography.
For starters, IN and NC are both decentralized states. Each has a major city with sprawling suburbs (Indianapolis & Charlotte). But the real action in both states is their networks of smaller but still sizeable cities. Which like similar (albeit much denser) networks in Yorkshire & Lancashire were workshops for the world in the early & mid 20th century, but have fallen on harder times in later years. And today are working hard (with greatly varrying success) to reinvent themselves for the 21st century.
In addition, both Indiana and North Carolina have large swaths of rural counties, ranging from properous fields, rich river bottoms, and hardscramble acres, with small towns to match.
Indiana is divided in two, with Indianapolis smack in the middle, by the famous US 40 line, now the Interstate 70 line. To the south, the land is flater and richer, winter is harsher, and the first White settlers were predominately from New England and the Middle Atlantic states. To the north, the land is hillier and generally poorer, winters are less fierce, and White settlers mainly came from the South, including North Carolina, often via Kentucky. This has greatly influenced the politics, though the the intervening two centurys the voting patterns have been scrambled several times. Yet there are still an amazing number of folks, esp. in rural areas, who still tend to vote the way their great-great grandfarther shot back circa 1864.
Easy ways to tell if you are north or south of the I-70 line:
1. check a road map
2. look for grits on grocery shelves & breakfast menus; if you find them, you’re south of the line
North Carolina is also a state divided, but like ancient Gaul (and daughter state Tennessee) NC is divided into three parts: from east to west the Tidewater, Piedmont and Mountains.
Tidewater is everything down stream from the Fall Line of the rivers that flow into the Atlantic or its great inland extensions such as Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound. This was the first section of NC to be settled by Whites, who immediately began importing Black slaves. So it has large numbers of rural Whites and Blacks on the farm but also in small mill towns. Plus major military clusters around Fayetteville/Fort Bragg (Army Airborn) and Jacksonville/Camp Lejeune (US Marines)
Piedmont is region above the fall line to the foot of the mountains. Most of the development, wealth, education and voting population of the state is concenrated in a fertile crescent of cities large, medium & small stretching without stop from Charlotte, the state’s largest city (which also dominates much of northern South Carolina) northeastward through Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Burlington, Chapel Hill, Durham and Raleigh, the state capital poised right on the Fall Line. Plenty of good farmland profitably exploited antebellem through today, including significant Black population. Once a center of early 20th century light industrialisation (textiles, cigarettes, furniture being three classic NC industries) the Piedmont started shifting to tech, finance and services.
The Mountains are the eastward flanks of the Southern Appalachians, where the chain is high, wide and very handsome. The terrain ranges from the highest mountain east of the Mississippi (Mt. Mitchell) to great parks and spas (Smokey Mountains, Asheville) to the far back of beyond. This is the smallest region in terms of population, with many ancestoral Democrats but few Blacks, because unlike the Tidewater & Piedmont it was unsuited to plantation agriculture.
338 - Of all registered voters, 21% are Black. But the number of African American registered Republicans is very low. So they are a much higher share of Democratic registration and turnout.
248 - which was also the secret of Obama’s success in South Carolina, Georgia, Alamaba, Mississippi, Louisiana and Virginia. In other words, the classic Southern crescent, whose heart is the Black Belt - black of soil and the cradle of human bondage in North America.
In Tennessee and also Arkansas, the Black population was too low to provide the necessary leverage for Black voters to put Obama over the top. This is also the situation in Kentucky, also in West Virgiana, which is itself a buffer zone between the upland & low-land South, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest.
I predict that Labour will come third in Crewe & Nantwich.
Remember Littleborough & Saddleworth!
Remember Brecon & Radnor!
LD 33%
Con 31%
Lab 28%
BNP 4%
Others 4%
Both Indiana and North Carolina are famous for automoblie racing, ranging from the Indy 500 and many NASCAR events on famed North Carolina speedways, to more rough & tumble stockcar racing, including contraband runs to test the cars under true road conditions (like Boris before they got him a driver).
Demonstrating other ways to use bouncy rubber & its substitutes, IN & NC are also famous basketball states. Indeed, in each the game has a cultlike status that has to bee seen to be believed.
350 Who could ever forget?
342/343: fair enough! The thing about being in touch is not that you know everything, but you ask if you don’t…
350 Sorry its straight Lab-Tory fight
350. Labour has NEVER come third in a seat they were defending in a by-election…
I would hazard it’s pretty certain the LibDems will come third..
355 BNP to lose deposit
343: …then again, checking Google it’s actually very rare by internet standards - only 2700 references on the net, ever. Compare with say 12,700 for one Sean Thomas, for instance. Or indeed 4950 for David Roe, who is evidently a snooker expert with an exciting love life in Auckland. The phrase seems to mean “making inflammatory remarks likely to result in a fight”. Hmm.
355 - That is yer neck o’ the woods. Hve you taken yer bicycle out to C&N, will be great excercise . . . if you can avoid being flattened by a lorry . . .
350 - Littleborough and Saddleworth was where I was living at the time (I was 15) and was the first real political event I remember. One of the pubs was the OMRLP HQ and Lord Sutch was the candidate. Mr Blobby also campaigned. My autie knows his mum.
357 - I think the chances of me ever usurping Derby’s finest potter at the head of my google queue are long
Fearless prediction: Clinton will carry Cherokee Co in farsouthwesternmost North Carolina. Which is where the survivalist who planted the bomb at the Atlanta Olympics hid out for years until finally apprehended by the feds.
Wheres Obama will carry the six counties - Bertie, Edgecomb, Halifax, Hertford, Northhampton, Warren - where Blacks are a majority of registered voters. Plus I predict he will carry Orange Co, home of the University of North Carolina.
Morus@18: Apparently Clinton endorsers make up 12 out of 30 on the Rules and Bylaws Committee, with one of the undecideds being from Michigan:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/5/165039/3600/930/509598
Obviously just because these people have endorsed her doesn’t mean that they’ll be her unquestioning puppets, though…
But according to Marc Ambinder:
The rules and bylaws committee may or may not be comprised of a majority of Clinton supporters (many of its members remain uncommitted), but they’re not going to be asked to vote on any challenge that would award Clinton her entire delegate haul from Michigan and Florida. The two challenges they’ve been asked to consider would, at most, award Clinton an extra 30 delegates — half of her margin from Florida and half from Michigan. One of the challenges, if successful, would allow 23 superdelegates from Florida to make known their preferences, and Clinton would net a few.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/clintons_nuclear_option.php
Obama is nearly level in superdelegate endorsements and should be ahead by well over 100 in pledged delegates once the voting is over, so even if she manages this to pull this off, Clinton is still highly unlikely to win.
58, 61 why are you discussing this horsemanure instead of my brilliant analysis?
And you call yourselfs whatever it is you call yourselves!
62 last para - which is why the deal is on the table in the first place.
355. Mitcham and Morden.
357 - Try “cruisin’ for a bruisin’” dropping the Gs - you will get 48,800 hits. It really is quite a well known phrase, Nick - been around for at least 50 years.
366 - Nick, you might enquirer next time you’re visiting Jersey City. Number of quaint watering holes down by the tank farms, just past garbage dock; very popular with motorcycle enthusiasts.
Just pop in the first establishment you see, make a beeline for anyone wearing grease-stained leather and “borned to be dammed” (as spelled) tatooed on their forehead. Then inquire as to the usage of the phrase “crusin’ for a brusin’”
Am sure you’ll get yer answer!
365. OK, highly exceptional and confused situation. Incumbent MP was ex-Labour then Ind.SDP. Douglas-Mann promised to face the electors on change of allegiance…
By-election call coincides wikth outbreak of Anglo-Argentine hostilities…
Polling-day, 8 weeks later, coincides with the final push for the inevitable British victory in the Falklands…
Massive jingoism results in unusual Government gain from the Opposition. Douglas-Mann comes second, Labour a narrow third…
i.e. Mitcham & Morden, 1982 is the exception that proves the rule that Labour have never dropped to third in a by-election they were defending…
reason it’s “crusin’ for a brusin’” not “crusin’ to a brusin’” has to do with the ease of saying each phrase.
For average ‘Merican, its easier to slur the “for” in the phrase to “fer”, that it is to slur “to” into “ta” which is presumably what Nick is doing. Or perhaps he’s inhaled some harmful fumes, who knows at this hour (of course the sun is shining quite nicely outside my window even as I type).
354. 355. 365. q.v. my thoughts (2 threads ago) about double tactical voting