“YouGov final poll: Boris by 6%” - PB EXCLUSIVE
April 30th, 2008
Is Boris about to become the next Mayor?
I have just received information from a source who has proved totally reliable in the past about the YouGov poll that will be published in the Evening Standard tomorrow.
This is the final survey of the campaign and according to the information I have been given Boris is leading Ken 44%-36% on first preferences. After second preferences that becomes 53% to 47%.
The same source has given me advance information about other polls in this campaign which have proved to be accurate. If that had not been the case I would not have published this.
If this is authentic, which I think it is, then it has Ken in a slightly better position compared with last Monday’s poll which had the first preference gap at 11%.
The latest betting is here
Mike Smithson
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Its in line with my expectations (I dont have a special source)
Is this what Sir Alex means by ’squeaky bum time’?
well my competition entry is 53 to 47 so I am as good a guide as YG but a lot cheaper
not far from the 52/48 i hypothesised about earlier. Great poll for both organisations. Mori can claim closer. You gov..late swing.. LOL, everyone is happy!.. except Ken of course…
1 you are a special source - shame you only got 7/2 on the tories in 92 but it serves you right for being a RED. Mind you I voted for Kinnock in 87 for some odd reason.
So Mike, what’s your fair value estimate for Boris if you assume your source is accurate as usual? Still 1.3?
Thanks Don! - All hail Don - all hail Don
re 6. I’m just a touch worried that the margin has tightened even if only a by a little bit. My estimate of value on Boris is now 1.27/1.28.
That’s about in line with what I’m expecting. Will be delighted if this turns out to be the case and YouGov completely trash MRUK.
Come on Liverpool! Win on penalties again will be very amusing!
5 haha . lost it all back spread betting on Con in 97. Bought them at £5 a seat at 249. Ooooops
As expected - a last minute move back to Ken, although probably not enough to save him. After today, my own prediction would be: first round - Boris 43%, Ken 37%, Paddick 12%, Others 8% - Boris 52%, Ken 48% on the final round.
It hasn’t been a textbook campaign from either of them. Boris has seemed a bit sloppy, unsure, and weak when it comes to detail, or in getting to grips with some of the more complex aspects of London’s electorate. But the essential job he had to do was to manage and keep together the current Conservative lead in London in the locals, and he’s accomplished that task successfully.
What really did for Ken, OTOH, was the Jasper allegations, because, leaving aside their rights and wrongs, they made his administration look tarnished and gave it a similar ocmplexion to Labour nationally. He could have squeaked home without these allegations. An even deeper problem has been his inability, again like Labour nationally, to craft a distinctive vision for the next term in London. A few simple positice policies that would have distguinshed him from both Boris and Labour nationally could have transformed his position, had he hammered them home for the past few months. However, he’s looked too “establishment”, too close the government, and too willing to resort to negatives. A really hungry Ken could have won this.
Ya!, thanks a lot, Mista Mike.
That’s in line with my expectations after second prefs. are taken into account (I still stick to 52/48%.) I’d predict 39% to 35% for Boris on first prefs.
WRT turnout, I doubt if a highish turnout will benefit Ken, any more than it benefitted Kerry. Even at 50%, the suburbs will still produce a higher turnout than the LCC area. I’d expect a turnout in the low forties.
Bear in mind, also, that this is in part an exit poll, given that perhaps a third of votes will now have been cast, so it should be pretty accurate.
I dont like chelsea but that has to be the most emotional moment in football history!
Well done Boris!!
All he needs to do now is GOTV and he’s home and dry.
Not too worried about the 3% contraction in the 1st preference lead. It’s well within the MoE.
Important thing is, he still has a clear lead with 24hrs to go.
16 Close
There’s people on the pitch - They think it’s all over - it is now
15) And whatever the result ends up being, in the absence of any information to the contrary of a Boris win, Boris’ price is going much lower before the result.
It’s going to be along 48hours (if your source at the print room is right) for us Boris backers.
20 - Maybe, but in the meantime there will be plenty of fun to be had with the council elections. I wonder if undue attention will be paid to the results from a certain shadow unitary.
IF Chelsea win tonight Its Reds v Blue in Moscow.. bet Man Utd hope Gordon won’t show up…
This London Mayoral Betfair market has easily been the “stickiest” market I can ever recall in politicalbetting in terms of reluctance to back the indicated winner.
Punters have consistently been nervous and wary of backing Boris, even when the weight of evidence has pointed towards a strong victory for him.
I think many punters just couldn’t believe he’d actually pull it off.
22 that’s fore sure now its 3-1
3-1 to Chelsea…… Blues beating the Reds……. Is this a portent for tomorrow?
Betfair seems pretty unmoved so far..
Snap
Dont forget the big one 2pm Sun: Blackpool v Watford!
21 Considerable interest. I predict the Conservatives will take both Shadow authorities in Cheshire.
29 - Yes I was thinking that there will be plenty of extrapolation forward to a certain by-election.
12 - Give Boris credit for having found his long-lost comb! That right there could be the racer’s edge.
23) CR - difficult to bet against such an historic political survivor.
12 - Not sure Jasper was Ken’s kiss of death. But agree totally with your last sentence.
Re: Betfair:
I’m up for that chunk of £950 at 1.37, but don’t have the money to put down!!
Crewe 2008 - biggest bye election since the war. (And I’ve been around long enough to know that they dont usually matter a whatsit).
Labour’s lack of respect and haste in calling it won’t help them.
32. Yeah, well, like you say… that’s “history”.
17 re Get-Out-the-Vote, does anyone know how sophisticated & effective (or not) the GOTV operations actually are the various candidates?
16 - I am not so sure that the turnout will be as high as 50% in the suburbs. Being careful what I say, the number of postal votes returned in one of those suburbs was about the same as the local elections, where the poll was only in the low 40s.
35 - which war? Afghanistan or Iraq?
35 - agree with last sentence. Though the dearly departed would be less than shocked.
Things were done different (and occassionally better) in her daddy’s day.
37. The Tory Party may be shit at by-elections, but they are BLOODY good at getting out the vote.
Trust me.
29. Cheshire voting Tory - hardly an outrageous prediction.
Well if YouGov are out in their initial weighting, and remember they have been on a limb compared to the others, then this could be a heck of a lot tighter than appeared. Might MORI / ICM be right …?!
…someone has stuck £5,000 down on Betfair for Boris at 1.4
OT - Just spotted a car parked outside my local Seattle Public Library branch, with Kentucky plates & an Obama bumpersticker.
Sure hope they make it home in time to vote!
41 I’m in City and East and the Tories are the only people who have bothered to canvass door to door round here, in fact I haven’t received as much as a leaflet from anyone else.
35 - What lack of respect? The family said they wanted the election to happen asap. Jeez, why do Conservatives continue to try to make political capital out of this when the family have made their views known?
43 - Evidence, or are you just theorising?
Chelsea 3 Liverpool 2
41 so good at getting out the vote, they keep losing by elections….. Shurely shome mishtake
41
I tramped up and down(in my car)( at the last locals where I live) I mutual aided elsewhere, and I reckon both our local candidates benefited from my door knocking.. Thats where Labour IMHO will fall down, the people on the ground..
Come on the Pool- please do not let the Chleski prevail
Definitely ’squeaky bum’ time now - 3-2 with 3 minutes left.
Everything points to a BoJo victory especially if one looks at fundraising, where the Boris campaign managed to rake in half a million in a week.
Don’t forget this is only a leak. What time will the official release happen?
Blimey - I thought they were saying 8 minutes of added time there - but they’re only subbing Lampard.
47 you are a spanner
Went into Corals tonight and asked the price on the Mayoral.
4/11 seemmed a bit short on Boris to me.
Value has now got to be laying Boris for a small amount.
There will be nervousness at some point over the next 24 hrs so why not take advantage of it.
Technically are the Yougov and Mori polls know within their MOE?
On second prefs Mori puts Ken on 49-55 and Yougov puts him on 44-50. Of course if Boris wins, Yougov will be seen to have got it ‘right’ regardless.
Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. The only cauction I have about all the pollsters is the high level of 1st prefs for the leading candidates. They have dominated the campaign more than previous contests but would be surprised to see them this high. Of course this could effect both candidates equally.
50. That has nothing to do with it.
GOTV means turning out a high % of your supporters, whether they are few, or many - it doesn’t mean converting supporters of other parties, or picking up news ones
41/51 - Could we maybe turn the question to how good the GOTV (on election day) tactic is itself?
Parties seem to put a very high emphasis on it…
I was skeptical at first - but after doing it last year I did seem to speak to a lot of people that would have forgetten that the election was.
Thanks for elucidating your reasoning.
56 Why oh why is internet feed two mins behind, I have just heard Lampard being subbed…
62 - That was to 57
re 55. Generally we’ve been getting first news when the Evening Standard hits the streets - 10.30 to 11am
41,46,51 - have certainly gotten the impression from pb that you Tories have been hitting the streets in numbers.
If it’s not a secret or something, do you guys do poll watching (what we call it in the states) where you check at the polls to see who’s already voted, then badger (via phone usually, but sometimes in person) your IDed supporters who haven’t yet voted?
Arghhh- the excruciating pain- the corrupt capitalist Russian buys his way into the final. Gutted, gutted, gutted
63. Bollocks!
This is a politicalbetting website!
F**king hate football! There’s enough of that sh1te around in the news as it is!
BOORING!! Let’s talk about Thatcher instead
60 CR utter twaddle. getting the vote out means getting more votes than your opponent. getting all your supporters to vote and then losing - how pointless is that.
37 Compared to even 20 years ago, GOTV is far more haphazard and amateurish than it was then. Compared to 40 years ago, we’re light years away.
But, in general, the Tories are better at getting their supporters out to vote than Labour are (as against which, more people identify with Labour, and have done since 1945, than with the Tories). Am I right in thinking in the USA, almost always, more people identify with Democrats than Republicans?
66. Yes. It’s calling “Telling and Knocking Up”.
62 I think you just proved Ave it’s valid point. You are indeed a spanner.
66 - That tactic is used - not sure how widespread it is though. I just get a list of supporters to knock on.
67. And the final is in Russia - hmmmm…
66 - here we call that knocking up - not so sure you would want to use that term. But poll watching to us might suggest a lap dancing club !
“If it’s not a secret or something, do you guys do poll watching (what we call it in the states) where you check at the polls to see who’s already voted, then badger (via phone usually, but sometimes in person) your IDed supporters who haven’t yet voted?”
That’s it, precisely.
69 - GOTV is about getting out your supporters, it is about micro managing differential turnout. It is a very important thing. Plus it can tie down your opponents.
69 - I think your are sematically wrong.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_out_the_vote
You have a point though.
58) Yes there will be lots of Nervousness but the Ken backers looking at their red positions will be the most nervous and more on a net basis will cover their bets and/or switch to Boris.
And don’t forget the “late lumpers” “buying money” - there one on Betfair now trying to get £5k matched. Boris is goooing loooower. If you want to back Ken, Back him tomorrow afternoon.
Another GOTV tactic is to just call everyone on the list. Over in the US in the past few cycles, robocalling has really taken off. Campaigns use it for persuasion, but personally think it has more impact as GOTV.
69. No it doesn’t you retard. Look it up.
It means “getting out the vote” of your own declared supporters. Tories regularly achieve a higher % turnout of their own declared/canvassed supporters than Labour do, that’s a big part of the reason why Tories outperform unfiltered opinion polls.
But why am I even wasting my time explaining it to you again?
I’m right - you’re wrong. Accept it before you make yourself look even more of a fool.
Aren’t Tories just naturally inclined to be more likely to vote because of increased engagement with the political process? Not GOTV?
I thought the tories were widely considered to be the worst at campaigning of all the parties? Labour and Lib Dems much better at targeting marginals and so on. Of course Labour are probably worse now, with all the ‘97 talent moved on and the base disillusioned.
71. Liberal MP David Penhaligon caused considerable mirth when he visited the States in 1980 to help the Carter campaign. Apparently the Americans were a bit shocked when told that British parties engaged in “knocking-up” voters on polling day…
Right one team populated by largly by overseas players managed by an overseas manager and with a foreign owner has beaten another team largly populated by overseas players managed by an overseas manager and with a foreign owner. A victory for english football….
This is a huge victory for the english market. The size and spending power of the market means the premiership is sustainable here. This coupled with our all round love and affection for immigrants like Drogba, Torres etc
69 - err, wrong. Every party will tell you that if everyone who says they’re a supporter voted, they’d win. In my ward, around 1000 vote wins; we have 1500-1800 on our side, and I would guess the Tories have the same. GOTV is about getting some of that 500-800 who might not bother to actually turn up. But then I hope that everyone not on my side doesn’t understand GOTV in the way you do
72 TY ‘Ave its’s points are always valid!
Kieran = LOLOLOLOL etc
Robocalling - think we say automated calling, is this not ilegal here. But stand to be corrected.
68- casino- you sad, sad, sad man. Footie is far more important than politics. Just look at how much has been bet on the match tonight against the Mayor election.
Politics UK is followed by sad little people who are very stingey, a bit autistic, rather ugly, a trifle flabby, a bit specky, very spotty, and very poor dress sensey. Sounds familiar.
Massive football result tonight:
Raith Rovers 0 Airdrie 2
69 don’t often say this, but agree with CR on this one. GOTV is a campaign tactic designed specifically to urge your own IDed supporters to the polls.
Alternatively, if you are sure that voters in a particular area are overwhelmingly on your side, you do what’s called a blind pull and try to turn them out without bothering with ID. But this is becoming pretty old school, what with micotargeting and techniques designed to ferret out “wasted votes” (that is, your supporters in areas where the opposition is strong).
89 - is that good news on Mike’s “Brown will stop being PM before Raith get promoted” bet or whatever it was?
Casino Royale people like you are the reason I ceased bothering to be active. An election is about getting the vote out - end period. If you have a commitment from a canvass then you want them out to vote. Ipso facto the one who does that best wins.You can’t have done it best if you lose.
72 - Again, thanks for adding to the debate.
Seriously, what is the point in name-calling? Fair enough getting angry because of you’re politics but this is just juvenile.
And I still haven’t got an answer as to why Labour lack respect by following the wishes of the family.
83 “knocking up on Election day” sounds like great fun . . . provided you have a bus ticket out of town . . .
I am sure sally has perfect dress sense (sensey even)
70. 40 years ago, GOTV meant Labour going round the council estates with loudspeakers and the Tories doing likewise in the ‘bought’ areas.
91 - indeed, it looks like we’ve got 10/1 on anyone but Labour in Crewe & Nantwich now, barring a second-leg comeback or a shock withdrawal of troops from Iraq…
88. Tyson - I’ll have you know I am very good-looking, of slim build, have excellent dress sense and no acne.
I am one hot guy
Arghh the pain. Chelski versus the red scum in the final. Why oh why? The pain, the pain!
I notice two very respected and seasoned and loyalist observers have just posted very gloomy prediction of net LD seat losses tommorrow. Firstly interesting that they think that. secondly interesting that they have done so on apublic site and in there full names. Frank honesty or expectation management?
90 Knocking up withiout knowing who your supporters are, is very rarely done in the UK. I can remember as a child that Labour used to come round with a loud speaker van. But as it was a safe Labour seat, they were hardlty knocking up opposition.
Handing out leaflets at railway and tube stations, seems to be back in vogue though
On the lib dem voice discussion thread sorry !
93 - *your* , it’s getting late. Time for bed, long day tomorrow.
How about reversing the proposition - If you get all your vote out and lose by your definition - do you congratulate yourself on your success?
93 - Strange I can think of council by elections, where Labour said the same, as the by - election was called within days of a Conservative councillor dying.
92. Oh dear! Case of sour grapes!!
Looks like there are FOUR other respected posters who think you’re wrong on this too… but I note you have now tried to CHANGE your original defintion of GOTV to try and look less silly.
John: When. In. Hole. Stop. Digging.
76 Thanks! And is still a practice to give IDed supporters (esp. elderly and other less mobile types) rides to the polls? Think that used to be a major Tory advantage, back in the day.
92 - give it up. you’re wrong. listen to the consensus here. As I said its a sematic point… - Canvass returns ain’t an exact science…
I have done knocking up loads of times, two instances spring to mind as to how effective it can be. First year in a ward we did three half hearted knock-ups and won by about 50. Next year we did a continuous knock-up from midday till close of polls and won by around 300. Now there were probably other factors at play like candidate etc, but in the first election we were defending and in the second election we took a seat.
102. Dear me, they’re very pessimistic.
107 - very much so.
93/103 yes its past your bed time - time for you to have your hot milk and go to bed….
As i said earlier - labour have no respect.
Now stay away tomorrow as there may be some nasty language and you might not like it (sssh dont tell Mike about the language)
112 no inducement for bad language implied or intended
98- casino- OK- yeh right!- fantastic footie game vs bunch of geeky, OCDers on pbCOM who bet tuppence, if anything at all.
On the one side we have good, wholesome beer drinking, high betting lads, on the other spotty, swotty, specky, geeko saddos.
Sadly you are appear to be on the wrong side comrade Casino.
A VERY reliable source tells me that Boris has over 1 million pledges of support and that they have a huge team ready for the dawn raid tomorrow. The team believe they can physically transport 50,000 people to polling stations who have requested transport.
It is hard to see Labour being able to manage this.
92 - If you have a commitment from a canvass then you want them out to vote. Ipso facto the one who does that best wins.
Your logic is flawed. If a minor party fights a ward with the conventional number of electors, gets 300 firm commitments, and converts 80% of that into votes, it won’t help them if one of the three main parties, with 1300 firm commitments, only gets out 900 supporters, at a significantly lower conversion rate.
107 - not these days, they are on postal votes !
114 - I dont refresh the comment page every minute on PB.. honest!
114 you are quite amusing for a leftie
Knocking up is usually done on the basis of of previous visits by party activists , but in my ward we help elderly (immobile) people to go and vote without asking their intention
114. Well.. your wife thought I was fantastic!
100 - Probably just honesty - you know what us LDs are like. I’m quite optimistic of a national anti-lab swing…
120 - the tories are famously kind-hearted like that…
101 - Here in Seattle, we have a lot of precincts that are very heavily Democratic. Some are high turnout, but there are quite a few that where turnout tends to be below average. These are about the only part of the state where the loudspeaker approach (literally or figurtively) is still viable.
BTW, the bulk of the vote in WA State is postal, either because the entire county is all-vote-by-mail (37 out of 39 counties) or because even in the two remaining counties that still have poll voting, absentees dominate the actual electorate.
Which means that voting begins as soon as the ballots are mailed out. From that point forward, every day is effectively Election Day.
What campaigns do, is find out which absentees/postal voter have already returned their ballots. Then they bug their IDed supporters who haven’t sent their ballots back yet. Note that under WA law, ballots are valid provided they are postmarked on or before EDay.
and…. your mother just loves to swallow
123 Is that sarcasm,?? if not , thank you as it happens to be TRUE!,
93 Your right, no more baiting Kieran, Ave it he doesn’t like it.
In regards of the family all to their own how they deal with grief, it is just unprecedented that a By election date is announced before a funeral and Brown is such a calculating cynical operator that I certainly wouldn’t put it past him to pressure a family that was grieving as it might just give him a political advantage.
123 its all about helping the elderly - unlike LABOUR who want them to freeze by putting their taxes, fuel up!
Gordon prefers encouraging the procreation of illegitimate children instead….
Huge Mayoral volumes trading on Betfair. Someone whacking Boris down to 1.33 another laying him back to 1.37 quite something!
not suggesting where 125 is posted to heh Casino at 121.
126 - Yes, it is sarcastic - which does not discount the fact it may be true (aren’t older people more likely to vote tory?…)
YouGiv has it. Not a landslide, but a very comfortable win for Boris. What I’ve been expecting for a couple of weeks now.
125. ..and your daughter thought I was the best she ever had.
Oh god,. the ‘your mother’ jokes remind me so much of the school playground !!
AVE IT CARES ABOUT MISSING COIN COLLECTORS
——————————————
Alert - we havent heard from Mark Senior tonight.
Where is he? I am concerned? Is he out delivering the yellow leaflets or is he polishing his coins?
Come back Mark!
107. Not really practical any more, with political involvement i.e party membership, of all parties, having fallen so much in recent years. It’s much more efficient to arrange a postal vote. Shame really.
130. Can’t find your posts?
No wonder you don’t know where your wife is….Hold on… What’s that Mrs. Tyson?
COMING!!!
124 - In the UK we do not know who has returned their postal ballot papers, as until very recently, they were not recorded as being returned.
In experimental all postal elections, political parties were given lists of those who had voted.
However, with the stup[id new rules on verifying postal votes face down, it would be easy to see who had voted (although not which way), but that would also be ilegal to use that information.
134. Yeah, but they’re fun though!!
I’m *still* not quite sure if Tyson is taking them as a joke though..
These lefties have no sense of humour y’know
131
I visited several old peoples homes. I transported people to the polling booth and back. I never mentioned the candidates. They were grateful for the lift..but beyond that, I wouldn’t stoop to brow beat someone in their 90’s about who to vote for. There are limits you know…
134. I think I’ll just say ‘hamsters and elderberry’ before someone else does.
Didn’t say they were not funny
I can be quite immature at times! Like spending my entire evening watching FAmily Guy rather than finishing my dissertation. oops
Re: rides to the polls to the elderly, think that both sides can be right on this one. That is, older people in certain areas may be inclinded to vote one way or another, depending upon the turf. But at the same time, the very act of providing transport on a “don’t ask, don’t tell” basis naturally creates a certain amount of goodwill. Which can translate into a few votes. Which when margins are close could be decisive.
And all my winnings on betting on a Chelsea-United final go on Boris. I’ll never have been so angry at a Tory losing if he does.
140 - I ain’t doubting the authenticity of your statement - I’m doubting whether you would have done it without the knowledge that older people are more likely to vote tory…?
138 - Very interesting.
Here in King Co, Washington, for every election the county election deptarment posts on their website the individual voter ID #s of every voter who has returned her or his absentee ballot. Which makes matching the returns against your campaign’s list of IDs very easy.
RE:The trasporting of voters
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Wilson_%28Texas_politician%29#Entry_into_politics
“Wilson first entered politics as a teenager by running a campaign against his next-door neighbor, city council incumbent Charles Hazard. When Wilson was thirteen, his dog entered Hazard’s yard. Hazard retaliated by mixing crushed glass into the dog’s food, causing fatal internal bleeding. Being a farmer’s son, Wilson was able to get a driving permit at age 13, which enabled him to drive 96 voters, mainly African-Americans from poor neighborhoods, to the polls. As they left the car, he told each of them that he didn’t want to influence their vote, but that the incumbent Hazard had purposely killed his dog. After Hazard was defeated by a margin of sixteen votes, Wilson went to his house to tell him he shouldn’t poison any more dogs.[3]”
PS - I’m not implying anyone here is lying - I just think it’s a funny anecdote.
143 True, but I personally saw it as a service to those less fortunate than myself. I work for a disabled lady anyway…I hope one day someone will be kind to do it for me , if i survive that long…
Right - Casino is off to bed. Long day tomorrow.
Night all!
Apart from Mrs. Tyson, who’s in my king-sized bed - right now -waiting for me in her Anne Summers outfit with a cheeky smile on her face
greetings from harris where fortunately this b&b has an unsecured wireless network. looking back no-one seems to have commented on Nick P’s grilling by John Humphreys this morning. I thought he did better than Brown
@135:
Mark Senior is hiding. He knows he’s going to get such a debagging and radishing for his shilling for Livingstone in his all-advised Yougov libel that his anus will smell of salad for a fortnight.
COME HITHER, MR SENIORRRRRR…
Hmmm…I’ve been watching this site for a few weeks in the run up to the mayoral, and can’t help thinking it’s become considerably less objective during that time.
There is a surprising proportion of posters who are clearly too close to one or other of the candidates (mostly Boris, but some Kennites also) to provide sensible commentary on whether particular odds represent good or poor value.
There are some prominent offenders, notably Casino Royale, whose shrillness suggest to me considerably more nervousness about their betting positions than they let on. Fine - such posts are fairly transparent.
What bothers me more is a lack of decent analysis from the more restrained posters. Perhaps its because many of you are (probably rightly) heavily backing Boris and are keen to maintain Boris’ momentum. But much of what is currently written on here does not really ring true anywhere outside ConservativeHome.
The rubbishing of YouGov by Livingstone’s campaign is unlikely to be justified - we shall see on Friday. Yet I’m very uneasy about them releasing this poll on the day of the election. It suggests to me at least a possibility that, as a polling organisation, they are being used by the ES to try to influence the result. And on that basis I think most of you are being overly trusting of their findings, especially in light of the discrepancy with Mori and MRUK.
Perhaps the reputation of this site is on the line a bit along with the pollsters?
145 Thats because you are cynical person. Not everyone does everthing with a reason behind it. I certainly did NOT!
Ooops, picked the wrong thread. This was from the previous one:
I’m always amazed by the sheer level of bullying and namecalling that often gets directed towards Labour supporters and various ‘lefties’ on this site, but I am sticking my head above the parapet this one time to say I think you’re all absolutely bloody mad if you’re placing vast sums of money on Boris.
I readily admit he’s the favourite going into tomorrow, but it is by no means signed, sealed and delivered. All the polls, bar YouGov, have Ken ahead or TCTC - and with YouGov BoJo has dropped five points in the space of a few days, a rate that brings him crashing into TCTC should the trajectory continue into tomorrow.
I also think its reasonably certain that with a campaign this high profile, and a choice this divisive, and with the stakes so high for the national parties that it is inconceivable that turnout doesn’t increase by 8, 9, 10 points from 2004.
149 — Bad boy!
96 No, it was a hell of a lot more efficient than that, as both parties had droves of activists, then.
107 These days, hardly anyone requests a lift, as they’ll be signed up to vote by post.
149 GN casino - see you tomorrow
151 LOL
154 - How much hard cash do you have on the outcome?
158 - None, which is the point of my post. It’s insane the amount of money people are reportedly throwing around a race that is essentially too close to call.
146 - Voting in the UK is done very much on trust. You do not need any offical card to vote (although you are sent one). If you say you are mr John Smith of 49 high Street, then the clerk will believe you and give you a ballot paper, so long as john smith of 49 green street is on the register. Clerks are supposed to ask two questions, but they hardly ever do
Why am I still here talking to you fools?
I have to be at a polling station at 7am!
139- casino- I think we have much more in common than you know comrade;
of course I am far more intelligent, quick witted, handsome, cooler, and all the rest, but I take that for granted.
And while I am on top, chipper (apart from the Chelski result), and all the rest, I am off to bed.
Ave it- lefty socialists are a real hoot. ciao
Ah only 23 hours to go! I am ridiculously excited
159 - If you think it’s going to be too close to call you should put your money on Ken as you’d get 2/1. It’s kinda a betting point though…you may not understand?
@162
HOOT HOOT!
149- arghh (162)- I am too slow again. Casino you swine, even tho you are asleep.- you have beaten me well tonight.
159. Thought this was political betting website? Or is it don’t bet won’t bet (but enjoy talking tosh).
164 - I’m a student so I don’t have money to be pissing away at will. I suspect that if I had this magical thing called a disposable income that my parents keep talking about, I might decide to put some money on Ken based on the odds - but I’d still hazard a guess that Boris is slightly more likely to take it.
I certainly wouldn’t put £18,000 down either way, even if I had it.
165 - Get to bed Mr C, If you have to get to a polling station by 7am…
Polls open in 8 hours - you can almost see people queueing up to vote Boris!!!!!!!!!!!
152. An excellent post, Max. I’m particularly missing Peter the Punter’s commentary as he usually calls things pretty good and tends to have a pacifying effect on everyone else (does anyone know where PtP is?).
167 - I’m quite aware of the fact that this is a betting website, thank you very much. I think it was the URL that gave it away.
My point is not that you’re all mad if you’re betting any money on Boris - its that you’re all mad if you’re betting LARGE sums of money on Boris, which some people are reportedly doing.
Clegg coming over quite well on Newsnight just now. Last few appearances I’ve seen of him he appears to be improving.
Its all about the
7777 
tonight on betfair…
It’s a bore that the result of the mayoral isn’t announced til Friday evening, was hoping for a late night election special!
175 - There will still be exit polls, I hope!
A lot of wisdom in 152 and 154 …
FWIW I have stayed out of this market precisely because I think there are big losses to be made and there has been little true value. If you win on Boris good luck to you, but I think there are much safer bets myself to be placed at the moment and I’m a little uneasy about Boris’ position given the vascillatory nature of the polling organisations on the outcome. It’s too uncallable to call. That having been said, for Ken to buck the national mood would be very surprising and it’s that, not YouGov, which would help me to sleep tonight if I had money on Boris winning.
Of course, the real art is to be so active that you are like Mike and win whatever!
Betfair looks pretty right now - someone trying to bet and lay using only number 7. Big money too.
Looking at the market objectively, I don’t think Boris is great value at 2-5 as we’re relying on yougov showing him as ahead. Not saying he won’t win as I desperately he will, but with my betting hat on, I couldn’t get involved.
172 - Frankly it’s their money, if they want to risk it tis up to them. All I have at stake on this election is a possible free lunch!
With respect to the ride issue, years ago I read a very intersting story in the Louisville, Kentucky paper, about a fellow in a very rural & extremely poor county in the mountains of eastern KY.
This gentleman ran his own political operation in his precinct, which covered a fair amount of turf. Unlike some others in an area that was notorious for vote buying, he didn’t resort to that.
Instead, he made it his business to provide a good many free services to local people. For example, he’d go to the store, pick up and deliver groceries for little old ladies with no transportation who lived miles up some remote holler (that is, hollow, a narrow mountain valley). And he always carried jumper cables, chains, battery charger, etc so he could provide roadside assistance. Plus he was always available to bail someone’s no-good brother-in-law out of jail if called upon. And etc, etc.
In return, the only thing he asked was that folks he’d helped out CONSIDER voting for the candidates he recommended. Plus on Election Day he and his helpers would give people rides to the polls.
Not surprisingly, candidates for county, legislative, congressional and statewide office were quite eager to get this fellows endorsement. Or as the local custom was, to get on his slate. Because he printed out cards that told people which candidates he was endorsing for various offices, generally in the primary. Candidates were naturally happy to pay him to put them on his slate - just as candidate are happy to pay political consultants and other hacks.
Again, he never said, “how are you going to vote?” or “you must vote for X”. Instead, he just asked the people he helped out to please consider voting for his candidates.
The result: his nickname in political circles was “The Postman” because he ALWAYS delivered his precinct.
Some very rich person is taking the p*ss on betfair at present who appears to be backing Boris and flooding the market with 3 and 4 figure numbers made up with lots of 7s!
Someone offering
3.9
£1493
on Ken
172-
Why don’t you put £1 on Ken. If he wins you’ve get £3(2+stake) - If it was really 50/50 odds you’d only get back £2(1+stake). Do you see the point yet? Otherwise you have no point.
172. If (when) Boris wins I’ll buy you a pint as long as you don’t bring your mates and their collection of straws!
Feels like the market just processed Smithson’s leak.
4.1 on Ken…
http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=20690681&rfr=400&ex=1
173. yes i thought he did very well. looked flustered and a bit ratty but really stamped his authority on the interview and pivoted to the issues.
184 - I do see the point. I hardly think the fact that I haven’t put a pound on this race disqualifies my opinion though.
That said, I may take your advice tomorrow, after I’ve gone and voted.
92 - The last round of canvassing is always to pledged supporters getting them to turn up to the polls. It’s making sure your base is more solid than the opposition.
188 - to be fair, I may still be bitter about the time, with one of my first posts here, I stated that I had just layed the Cons at the ealing by-election (unfortunately just before a few minor local defections) - Someone patronisingly poster piped up about Value Bets - I unfortunatly did not come back with any sort of “torys will be a poor third - mark my word” line.
181 - “the postman” - I like it
166 - from what I understand, he’s not asleep
I finally bet on Boris to win this. Unfortunately perhaps, it looks as though the 4/7 I took from Hills was a second preference match bet, rather than the straight bet for the mayor.
Am now a bit concerned as the polling seems to suggest Boris will win as Mayor, but Ken may win the second prefs (just not by enough). Is my understanding of the second pref match market correct, and if so, what might be the best way to lay it off ?
171 - I met up with Peter the Punter early last week. He is fine, just has been frantically busy. I think he’ll be rejoining us *full time* in a couple of weeks, and I’m sure he’ll be flattered to have been missed!
Sounds like someone thinks it’s free money backing Boris.
A reported 6% lead on the eve of the poll, with many votes already cast and a very unsettled weather picture, all adds up to a Boris win in my book. I’m on at average odds of 5/6 against Boris so I’m hoping the “free money” punters don’t get their fingers burnt.
172 - But it is a betting site. I stopped putting money on Boris when he went shorter than 4/6 but if he loses it won’t stop me paying the rent so stop worrying about us! We’re all adults here and are using our vast cumulative experience to try win our posting friends and enemies a few quid.
If you have 18k floating around to bet it is better shoving it on a sure thing to win a few more grand than backing a horse or a footy team as the data is a lot more reliable that we look at.
I would never say that you should use money you can’t afford to gamble with but the beauty of a free country is you can do what the hell you like with your own money.
You’re a student so probably spend it on condoms and beer and really odd looking clothes. That’s your prerogative.
152, 154 - Agree with a lot of points, although I’m a Boris supporter in both monetary and voting terms, with some reservations on the latter point. However, all the underlying data - the relative hardness of the Conservative vote; Labour’s national unpopularity; its failure to compete in the ground war - all point to a Boris victory, even if, say, you lean towards MORI/MRUK rather then YouGov.
OT football
Chelsea EPL winnners 08/09 still at 3.75 (11/4) with Bet365.
Skybet have dropped their odds to 2.87, you will not get better on BF when it opens and it will probably worse when you take in ac commision. If CFC win either the this year’s EPL or ECL they will drop to below 3.5.
The current odds for the big four give an overround of 99.9% if you discount any team outside them having a chance.
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/football/england/premier-league/winner-2008-2009
I’ve just laid Paddick for £10 to come through the middle?
Lord Laidlaw eat your heart out.
Good luck to everyone tomorrow. Hope Marxist Ken is booted out (with the help of Patriotic second preference votes).
SWITCHED ON TORY VOTERS PLAN TO VOTE BNP!
“I’m a Conservative voter, but I’m going to vote for your party in the Top Up list so as to keep out Labour and the minority leftist parties.”With millions of Londoners now studying their ‘How to vote’ Mayoral elections booklet - complete with the election addresses of all the candidates, including the BNP’s Richard Barnbrook - our telephone enquiry lines are getting a lot of calls along the lines of the one above.
Politically astute Tory voters (to be honest, they can’t be that astute, or they wouldn’t keep voting for Cameron’s LabourLite brand, but these things are relative) understand that the Conservative party will win so many seats in the first past the post contests in London that their chances of winning any seats in the Top Up list are literally zero.
Even last time around, when Labour were nowhere near as unpopular as now, the Tories took nine of the fourteen first past the post seats. This meant that that their votes on the Top Up ballot papers were discounted under the Proportional Representation system used to decide who wins Top Up seats. With Brown being so utterly loathed by such vast swathes of over-taxed english voters, the same is certain to happen this time.
So a Conservative vote on the Top Up list is an utterly wasted vote, which could easily let in a high-taxing LeftList Assembly Member. Which is why we’re hearing from significant numbers of die-hard Tories who are nevertheless voting BNP rather than Conservative on the Top Up ballot paper.
“I’d far rather see a BNP man in the Assembly than have another car-hating, tax-grabbing, pro-Muslim Marxist crank like that ghastly Linsey German woman elected. As that’s the choice, there’s no choice, I’m voting for you,” was how another caller put it yesterday.
We ask other habitual Conservative voters reading this to do the same. It’s simple for Tories:
Vote Barnbrook and Johnson on the Mayoral ballot where you have two votes anywhere; vote for your party’s candidate on the constituency list (except in City and East, where we’d rather everyone votes for our Bob Bailey), and vote British National Party at the head of the Top Up ballot paper and help us to beat the far-left to a Top Up seat.
http://www.bnp.org.uk/2008/04/29/switched-on-tory-voters-plan-to-vote-bnp/
***********
Every newspaper across the country has told it’s readers DO NOT VOTE FOR THE PATRIOTS.
Every politician and every political party have told voters DO NOT VOTE FOR THE PATRIOTS.
Hundreds of ‘actors’, ‘musicians’, ‘writers’, ’sportsmen’, ‘artists’ etc have told the electorate DO NOT VOTE FOR THE PATRIOTS.
Dozens of religious leaders have told their parishioners DO NOT VOTE FOR THE PATRIOTS.
Despite the attacks, fraud, smears and criminality it will make absolutely no difference. Patriotic Londoners will have Assembly representation on May 2.
198 - I’m not tying up my money for that long!
194. Thank you very much for that, Morus. PtP’s return can’t come soon enough, although there are about a dozen other posters - including your good self - who make this a must-read blog.
Is there any chance of the Tories winning a top up seat in the London Assembly tomorrow?
203. No offence Emily, but I really don’t think your going to convert anyone on here…
And let’s have it right, no paper has urged people not to vote for the ‘patriots’ - the message is don’t vote for the BNP. Quite different.
200 needs comment removed. dont even try and justify voting BNP on that basis. Either you are a labour plant trying to discredit the tories or you have major ethical issues. the system may not be fair or perfect, but that is no excuse to vote BNP. A high tory vote resulted in no extra seats is a far greater persuader for voting changes.
200. Sure the BNP are socialists…..
205 you mean you actually read her posts?
* for voting system changes
205, No it doesnt need removed. they are a party, they can stand and they can promote. Anyway its a bit of a waste of a plant coming on here.
204. Do apologise for that. Either numbers are changing or I’m going mad. Likely to be the latter.
To actual 203 - Yokel, I’m not sure what the actual % is, but we’d have to be into crazy levels of support to get anything on the top-up (unless we do much worse than expected in the Constituency vote). Think you’d need Sean Fear to give you exact stats.
193. I suspect you are stuck with that Paul.
Quick report from ladbrokes. After betting on this market for months and taking hundreds of bets, we are now in a situation where it makes very little difference to our book who wins. It has just started to move towards Ken being our preferred result, and by 10pm tomorrow I’d expect that position to have been magnified.
1/3 Ken
9/4 Boris
On our %age vote share markets, our worst results would be
Boris 35-40%
Ken under 30%
Bah
1/3 Boris
9/4 Ken
natch….
193 - I can’t even find Hills odds for the mayoral online - so I have no idea.
205
No need for censorship here. PB.ers can make up own minds.
O/T - Lib dems were storming to a lead on http://www.traffordconservatives.com online poll, but late surge to tories - now 49% to 40% for LDs
207. Ignoring the issue allows it to slowly fester. These views should always be tackled head on so other people can hear the arguement against those views, instead of being presented with an empty vacuum
Some serioous cash starting to line up on BF - nearly £6,000 wanting to lay Ken beween 3.6 and 3.7, nearly £8,000 wanting to back Boris between 1.4 and 1.37.
looking forward to a lot of telling and knocking up tomorrow
210. Fair enough, was just taking a look at the top up pricing on Betfair and wondered what the status was.
205/209 - As Yokel says,they are a party and therefore shouldn’t be banned. I don’t have the ‘Candidates Booklet’ that was distributed to hand, but you should read it if you get a chance - it’s a hoot.
‘I’m voting for the BNP because I’m Irish…’ Bloody brilliant!
Boris’ rejection of their 2nd prefs in the strongest terms is the best response to any attempt to link Tory/ BNP voters.
200 - Must switched on Tory voters realise there is no point voting Tory on the list so will vote for one of the other parties to keep the ‘patriots’ out of City Hall.
I know for most people here this is teaching grandma to suck eggs but some people might not have understood it yet. Certainly the voting figures last time proved it had most people baffled.
People who are voting Tory for constituency seats in the London Assembly should make sure that they vote for another party in the London List system or you are essentially wasting a vote.
The d’Hondt system of allocating top-up seats means any Tory list vote will be wasted as there is no way the Tories will win any top up seats (We’ll probably win all but 2/3 constituency seats) so vote for one of the other parties.
Labour, Lib Dems, UKIP, Greens all won seats last time and it kept out the real nutters (UKIP and Greens mean well I’m sure).
Polls suggest that most people don’t understand the d’Hondt system and there were only about 30,000 Tories last time who didn’t waste their vote and made the sensible switch.
I’m not a supporter of any of the other parties as you all know but I will definitely not be voting Tory on the list.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D‘Hondt_method
This is a party political broadcast for the keep nutcases out of City Hall party.
193. Paul, either hope Hills reopen the market tomorrow (which they might not do if voting has started) and hope others continue to back Boris so you can get on Ken at a good price, or limit your losses and back Ken for 2nd preferences at the 11/8 on offer now with Paddy Power.
200-My postal vote got lost and so I was disenfranchised.
Had I been able to vote, would have been:
1) BNP bloke, 2) Boris
Barnet&Camden: 1) Tory [know he's a poofter-tough!!], 2) List: BNP
And after a heavy drinking session overseas, off to sleep….
Boris by 10%+ …
The polls continue to underestimate the Ken hate factor in outer London.
7am date with a telling slot beckons, happy hunting one and all.
202 - Very kind of you to say so, Rob - I’ll pass on your best wishes.
200 - Emily, I posted yesterday about the poor political acumen of some of the smaller parties. In berating them all for not joining together (so as to avoid splitting a vote share that could guarentee representation - eg Left List/Unite for Peace and Socialism/Respect (George Galloway)/Green Party/Animal Counts all seem to have the same agenda, and could get a couple of GLA seats if they merged) I noticed something odd.
Except for one constituency, the BNP are running no Constituency campaigns, whereas the National Front have 5 candidates but are not running for top-up seats or for Mayor.
Sean Fear suggested that a deal had been struck to avoid splitting the vote (they take constituencies, you take the rest). Is this true? If so, there cannot be a huge difference between platforms/voter base - why not merge to secure the benefit of a single brand? Is this essentially a DECOY LIST to try and produce an Overhang?
I will not, of course, be voting for either party, but am still interested in how they will perform this election, and I would like to understand what their strategy is in this respect.
212 - I nearly had a fit and headed for Ladbrokes!
205
If you don’t like it ignore,otherwise its called freedom of speech which is still allowed despite the best efforts of assorted lefties.
Complicated forms, Poor weather, Tories more inclined to vote…Boris is home and dry.
Actually, how will UKIP do?
Anyone?
229. Who?
219 Yokel
If you assume the Tories retain their 9 seats, or even gain the Enfield one, then that would be 36- 40% of the seats right there, so they would need an enormous % on the list to get a top up seat.
Only way top up might happen would be if they didn’t win Enfield and lost the SW London seat to the LibDems, but even then a stretch. I suppose they could get lucky if UKIP, the BNP and the Greens adn respect all got just under 5% on the list but I wouldn’t hold your breath.
225-Do a search on wiki on John Tyndall and see how many subgroups and how much self hatred NF/assortd hard right had. I lost count after the nth split…
193 - Note that Mike S. several months ago did a post about how he’d made a very bad mistake by pushing the wrong button or something while makeing an on-line bet.
Perhaps the on-line betting shops could insert some type of 2nd chance confirmation on the webpages. Like when you go to delete something on Windows and it asks you if you REALLY want to do what you just told the computer to do.
Am not sure if this is exactly relevant to your situation. But re: 2nd chance, this would clearly be good for the bettor. And I believe it would also be a plus for the house. Because while they occassionally benefit from these kind of errors, doubt if it makes up for the loss of good will AND the fear factor among many potential online bettors.
Speaking of the house, thanks to Shadsy for his posts.
225 - The history of the far left is a staggering tale of backbiting and incompetence. Just as they look like making gains they implode. Look at Scotland where the SSP looked like becoming a fairly major political force. RESPECT/Left List is another more recent example.
Piss ups and breweries springs to mind when discussing leftist politics.
221 - it is a bit of a flaw with the mixed constituency/top-up system, isn’t it? Supporters of the most popular party, who are already going to be over-represented in strictly proportional terms, effectively get a second vote [though many don't realise and thus don't use it].
225, Interesting. Would the BNP be on for a top up seat of they they hit over 5-6% of the vote that theyd be on for a seat>?
193 - Paul M - Hills may well be sympathetic if you ring them up and explain your error and may be willing to void your bet. The longer you wait, the less likely they will be to void it, understandably.
Good night to you all. Good luck whatever you political persuasion or wherever your investment lies.
236 Almost definitely
So it seems that Dirty Old Town is going to give the boot to a tired, aging and rather sad grey man, and welcome in a foppish boy-man who is known for performances on silly game shows.
It must have felt like this when Cromwell was replaced by Charles II in 1661 [coronation.] No it didn’t, those were serious times involving serious matters. This is just an old-fashioned political bun-fight where the major debate has been about bendy-buses and the rest of England [save political groupies] couldn’t give a monkeys fcuk.
Off to dine with the town’s senior citizens; three course menu for $2.50 a head. Jack W would be in his element, and also almost the oldest senior present.
Malcolm
135
“Alert - we havent heard from Mark Senior tonight.
Where is he? I am concerned? Is he out delivering the yellow leaflets or is he polishing his coins?”
…he’s counting the 30 pieces of silver he got from Ken [re last thread].
235 - I personally think the list is ridiculous and they should allocate top-up seats based on constituency votes. Any political party should be able to put up the small number of candidates needed to fill the slots (indeed, they all do on the list) so that would solve it.
But if you have two votes you really should make sure they are used. If I had any real sympathy for any of the others I would probably vote for them as mayor before switching to Tory second pref. I was going to do that last time but my pencil refused to put a mark next to Simon Hughes’ name
Enjoy tomorrow. Do we have any candidates who are regulars here? There were a few of us last year. This year nobody got round to twisting my arm and my name will be absent, mercifully, for the ballot papers.
Aaron, Caveman
Thanks for the advice. Might try to get it voided.
231. Yeah I’m not brilliantly familar with the London story which isnt a bad thing because sometimes an instnctive view works well.
Looking at the 2004 results and the comments on here its clear they’d (Tories) be going some to get a top up seat.
If UKIP take a dive anyone think the BNP are beneficiaries? I’m guessing UKIP maybe see a bit of a fall?
Looking at things as they stand, Betfair suggests that BNP are rock solid on for a seat though its thin trading, If they werent that 20 odd quid for a no at 4 and bit would be interesting. Again though the 2004 results suggest that the BNP aint too far off winning a top up seat.
Max With so many having so much riding on such varied outcomes, the closer an election comes the more the excitement mounts.
And sometimes that boils over a bit.
But let us have our fun, after all there has been screeds of sober assessments for weeks about tomorrow and the aftermath. Tonight is party night. Tomorrow night is nail biting night. Friday is clear up and count day.
There’s now a decent possibility that the BNP won’t get a seat at all - while anti-immigration sentiment hasn’t disappeared, it’s not been as major a talking point during this campaign as it was in 2004, and the London BNP have generally been off the radar. In addiiton, the Greens are probably likely to hold their vote, or, at worst, make only a slight shift downwards, largely because Sian Berry has had a good campaign - she’s been visible without attracting the kind of media scrutiny of her policies that would put voters off, and her semi-pact with Ken may win Labour votes on the list. All in all, I’d expect the BNP to end up with only one seat, with the Conservatives taking UKIP’s vacant spot.
UKIP themselves have no chance - Europe hasn’t been an issue, and their campaign has had almost no ivsibility. The renegades at One London might as well not have bothered standing.
Question Time panel? This week: Des Browne, William Hague, Paddy Ashdown, Richard Littlejohn and Polly Toynbee.
I’ll try and grab it live if I can.
It’s not a foregone conclusion that the BNP will win a seat. 5% Londonwide is still a hell of lot of fascists to get to the polls. The higher the turnout the less chance they have.
I know that the above is more wishful thinking than serious analysis. Don’t make any betting decisions based on it!
236. Yerwhat?
A beautiful moment in PMQs today when Stephen Pound MP (Lab) notes “the marvellous job the Leader of the Opposition is doing…”, and is then cheered to the rafters by the Tories - just look at Dennis Skinner when the camera cuts away. Shaking his head and a look of utter contempt towards his honourable friend.
No love lost between those two I suspect. I could read Skinner’s mind - “Pillock” he was no doubt thinking…
249 - “The higher the turnout the less chance they have.”
Not sure about this. I think the BNP are rather the Heineken party. They reach parts of the electorate other parties do not reach.
247 - Her ludicrous statement in The London Paper about taking a taxi being better for the environment than taking the bus was so mind-numbingly idiotic it probably cost them my list vote.
Anyone else see that? It nearly made me spit out my diet coke from laughing.
240
Don’t forget your dentures.
247-Agree UKIP is a case of, who??? but do you really think the Greens have had a high profile campiagn. Looking from outside it looked to me liek a very polarised campaign. I guess we will see on Friday, but not convinced the Greens are there.
252 - Yes but a higher bar will be harder for them to clear.
223 Won’t pretend that I’m going to lose sleep because the BNP is not going to have the benefit of your vote.
That said, I do think it’s a rotten shame that there isn’t some way to 1) be issued a replacement ballot in person or via fax, email attachment or website; and 2) to cast a provisional ballot at the polls.
Apologize in advance if these things can be done (does John Looney have his ears on?) under the current system.
By same token, while I shall not cry into my pillow because the far right in London is splintering their vote (falling into the classic sectarian cannibalism of the far left) I concur with Morus that, if you’re going to play the game, then fer Jaysus sake learn the rules, if for no other reason than to forebare from irritating the other players.
Of course, for an anti-establishment party, that can & indeed often has been be an end in itself.
Yes its 1 may - the end of labour today!!!!!!!!!!!!!
250. What I’m trying to gauge is hwo close the BNP are to a top up seat. Last time they hovvered just below 5% and failed to make a seat and I’m wondering would 5-6% see them home.
It looks maybe like ist knife edge that they would or wouldnt get a top up seat.
If it was really a 50-50 situation then I’d take the odds on Betfair for no seat.
238 - must be an anarachist!
Re 66, Sea Shanty “If it’s not a secret or something, do you guys do poll watching (what we call it in the states) where you check at the polls to see who’s already voted, then badger (via phone usually, but sometimes in person) your IDed supporters who haven’t yet voted?”
Yes we do badger them, more normally in person. Its called knocking up.
Last year I went around to one of our supporters. There were a Mr and Mrs listed at the address with the Mrs listed as a supporter. I knocked and the husband answered the door, and it took all my might to avoid saying:
“Hello, I’ve just popped ’round to knock up your wife”
257-I live in Moscow (not the one in Idaho)so I do not think it’s a traduction of the democratcic process if the BNP/Tories/assorted fascist nutters, get my vote. In with the smooth, out with the rough…
259. 5.000001% will see the BNP get 1 seat…..
6-7% could deliver 2 depending on how other parties split the vote.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Londonassembly.xls
252 - Probably not at GLA turnout levels, I agree - as the borough elections in B&D demonstrated. However, the BNP have a definite ceiling of the electorate they can attract, and, if turnout were to rise above 50%, they’d be hard pushed to make an umpression.
(I’d be surprised myself in turnout tomorrow Londonwide, at the very best, is above 41% - if turnout is above 40%, then Ken is still in the game).
255 - Outside the big three, Sian Berry has probably has more coverage than the other minor parties put together, especially as some media organisations like the Standard have put her on a level with the other three, and as the only woman in the contest.
Re 77, “69 - GOTV is about getting out your supporters, it is about micro managing differential turnout. It is a very important thing. Plus it can tie down your opponents.”
As James Burdett says that is it. Two of us tied down something like 9 Liberal Democrats in their safest ward last May in a battle which we took to them. They fought back and we lost.
Had they not fought back then it would have been so much tighter. The fact is though that it made the rest of the teams job easier in the other wards.
259 - The moment they hit 5% (that is the minimum to win a seat) they will have one sewn up since most of the top up seats will not go to the main two parties.
263. Have to be honest I cant see the BNP regressing thus its a question of 4.7% to 5%. Can they do it, or will they be scuppered by improved turnout for example.
Evening all , had a good night at bar billiards excellent score of 9,300 sadly my friend Tim lost thr decuder on the last ball so team lost 2-3 . Sadly no pieces of silver or nickel bronze from Ken but the original point I made about Yougov counting too many over 55’s was 100% correct .
I really can’t wait to come back here on Saturday to read what you’ll be saying about Ken’s victory!
247, 259 If UKIP is nowhere, won’t a significant minority be inclined to gravitate to BNP? Could be smalll but still determinitive.
Two other factors:
–actual amount of fragmentation of far right vote; personally get the impression that someone who wants to vote far right, in particular those who don’t have armbands in their sock drawer but just want to send a message (perhaps just for this one election) to the powers-that-be, is going to vote BNP
–potential for Greens to compete for votes with the BNP, for example environmentalists with conservative economics who believe strongly in population control and oppose immigration.
Re 89 Aaron “Massive football result tonight:
Raith Rovers 0 Airdrie 2
Fantastic that has cheered me up!
270 - I would sadly suppose that to be true. Though i know many former Tories who moved to UKIP who just don’t like the EU and are in no way fascists so I would think they are more likely to return to Boris and the Tories than vote for Barnbrook and the Nazis.
BNP could get 3 seats on about 8.5%, but only if no other minor party reached the threshold. More likely they would need in excess of 9.5% to get 3.
265 - Very interesting.
Someone said way up above in the thred, that GOTV (the specific tactic of targeting & turnout out your own supporters) would not help smaller parties. But this shows precisely how it can. Provided of course you have a critical mass of supporters to turn out.
253 About 3 years ago I saw a 10-12 year-old 4X4 outside a mearby comp.The inhabitants? A couple of 18 stone lard-arses-the coup de e’tat was their stikcer compainign about hte price of fuel.
MY thought?
I wish we were in the 1700s-and they were put in a place for imbecilic/feeble-minded-I’m sorry,bu that got my goat
(FWIW,I see Bo Jo winning-good luck,the people of London..)
Yokel - either there is the same fundamental disconnect on the Far Right as there is on the Far Left, or something more machivellian is going on.
If the National Front were to actually get a seat through the Constituency ballot, the BNP could still get a member via the list for just 5.x% or so. If the BNP had won that constituency seat, it would just prevent them from winning the same seat on the top-up list. Having no candidates (or only one) in the constituencies maximises the chances of a seat via the list, and any NF victory in the constituency races is a bonus.
Decoy lists are the major flaw in the system. I’m surprised that the Conservatives haven’t set up a Decoy List/Dummy Party (the Cameroonians, or the Boris Johnson Party) for the list to take advantage of the flaw in the system. I’m not sure what safeguards exist, but you can only play the game as you find it. Such a tactic would probably win them two or three seats which would give their coalition with the real Conservative Party an outright majority on the GLA.
Anyway, I just wanted to understand whether the Far RIght was being clever, or what deal had been struck, or what on earth was happening.
Rough guess at the BNPs chances..
0-seats, 10%
1-seat, 50%
2-seats, 30%
3-seats, 10%
270 - Yes: the BNP are certainly going to get a portion of this vote. However, a proportion of the UKIP vote would have come from voters from other parties who were focusing on Europe due to the EP elections, and will return to the mainstream ones. The two-party battle too, means that the Conservatives are more convincing a vehicle for delivering a sock to the government’s nose than they were in 2005.
The Greens (in London, ar any rate) are almost diametrically opposed to the BNP, being strong where they are weak, and vice versa. Their support is generally concentrated in inner London, coming from groups like students, the liberal GMW vote, and disaffected left-wingers who hate New Labour. The more conservative environmental vote isn’t a significant demographic in London, although it might be in rural areas.
272 Yeahm, the facist thing is a bummer for most sane voters, to put it mildly. Of course that’s from my lefty perspective. Plus the Luftwaffe never dropped any bombs on Moscow, Idaho or it’s close neighbor Pullman, Washington.
Many think about it, but damnsite fewer actually willing to do it. Which limits potential even in districts that are demographically favorable.
On the other hand, they can vote for Boris and BNP, right?
My first post so don’t bite me. Just wanted to offer my thoughts on the YouGov v Mori accuracy question. Although my gut feeling is that Boris will probably sneak it, it occurs to me that there have been previous elections where pollsters that diverge signficantly from YouGov’s findings have been rubbished due to YouGov’s impressive track record, and yet on one or two of those occasions it was the other pollsters that were right. One example was the 2004 European election, when if I recall YouGov were outlandishly suggesting a virtual three-way tie between UKIP, Labour and the Tories.
Perhaps more tellingly, however, exactly one year ago, YouGov produced a poll on election day suggesting that the SNP were a comfortable 6% ahead for the Scottish parliament, exactly the position they’ll apparently place Boris tomorrow. Because YouGov had been almost spot on in the 2003 Scottish elections - and others hadn’t - these figures were taken more seriously by many than ICM and Populus. ICM had Labour only marginally behind the SNP, and unfortunately for me as a Nationalist, they turned out to be right. Might be worth bearing in mind for tomorrow.
248. Now thats a GREAT panel! Littlejohn and Toynbee, plus William Hahue. That’ll be great fun.
276 - if I understand what your saying (kind of doubt it) then sounds like a form of fusion, such as they do in New York City & State.
Interestingly Paddy Power are 11/10 turnout over 43% tomorrow compared to Hills’ 7/4 that Mike tipped earlier - all the more reason to think that the Hills bet was excellent value.
From the shape of the PP market (20/1, 20/1, 6/1, 9/4, 2/1, 11/10) it looks like they’ve reached the 11/10 on the basis of continual bets at higher prices so there would seem to be some market sentiment behind that as well.
Just looking at the second preferences in 2004, almost half of the second preferences for Norris didn’t count as they were from people who had Livingstone as first preference. And almost half of Ken’s second preferences came from people who had voted Norris first. Wierd. And adds to the definitional issue on this head to head second preference betting with which I have unfortuantely involved myself.
280 - welcome Frances, we don’t bite as a rule! My money’s on YouGov this time around - they have struggled with smaller parties in the past (obviously the SNP aren’t small in Scotland, but you know what I mean) but I think their Lab/Con figures have generally been pretty good.
CBS news running story of new crime wave sweepng the US: people drilling into (petrol) gas-tanks of trucks, etc to steal buckets of fuel. And that’s with prices at $4 a gallon….
The age of Homo Colossus…
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Pictures/EnergyCurveHistory3_op_800×203.jpg
280 what rubbish not!
This has been and is a wacky election. I mean, Boris has lost his weedwacker hair cut. That alone is worthy of pause.
Must say that I feel for the poor pollster. Though “poor” may not be exactly the proper word choice for his profession . . .
Re 171, StJohn “Clegg coming over quite well on Newsnight just now. Last few appearances I’ve seen of him he appears to be improving.”
To be fair I did not think he could be getting worse
282. No, it’s an oddity of MMP that can only really be fixed by close regulation of party registration. Fusion tickets are just a candidate running for two parties at the same time 9and have votes on the two lines combined).
For example, the Conservatives could set up a dummy party to stand for the extra seats used to determine proportionality instead of running candidates themselves on the list. They would win nine to ten constituency seats as the Conservatives, but then their dummy party might win enough votes to be entitled to eight seats in the proportional vote. Had the dummy party votes been Conservative votes, they would have only won the constituency seats as they’d already have their proportional share, but, with the dummy party having no constituency seats, it would get the proportional seats, all of which would go to people who were Conservatives in all but name.
If I remember correctly, Forward Wales tried this trick at the Welsh assembly elections by running their constituency candidates as independents.
268 - Mark Senior, whereabouts do you play bar billiards? Are you in London? If so there are very few places I’m aware of that have tables so am keen to hear of more…
I don’t think fusion would work in practice. For one thing, the other main party would have plenty of time to resort to the same tactic (unless it was spurng as a surprise, in which case you’ve got the real danger of lack of voter identification, and you’ve got to spend all your time building that up when you should be campaigning to increase the total vote0. In addition, the first mover to adopt the tactic will be excrecated for trying to “gerrymander” the elections, which might have a bad effect. The LDs would be especially vehement, as they’d have nothing to gain from the process.
289. Decoy lists worked so well for Berlusconi in 2001 that Forza Italia didn’t have enough candidates to fill the extra seats won by the subterfuge….
The poll looks plausible enough, but if YouGov is even slightly askew (e.g. if it’s not so good at picking up ethnic minority voters) and the direction of travel continues for the last 48 hours, it could be pretty tight. Note that the previous YouGov had Boris improving slightly on 2nd preferences, where this one has him falling back. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if Ken wins but it may be closer than some of you think (and I don’t expect a Labour meltdown elsewhere either - we have hopes of the odd consolation prize that will be reported first). I suspect there will be a bit of LD heart-searching if Paddick is squeezed badly - a warning of the possible squeeze at the GE if that looks close.
The Standard was interesting today. The editorial pages go to town on Boris, with a giant headline and full page plus normal editorial. But they’ve ‘balanced’ this with a relatively friendly double page spread on Ken on earlier pages, the first decent coverage they’ve given him.
Good posts by David Roe - I’d not spotted the point about list Tory votes being wasted in a year when they win most constituencies, because of the way d’Hondt works. You get the same effect in Germany, where a party doing well gets more seats than its share.
289 Thanks for the explanation.
286 - interesting, sadly doesn’t surprise me, yet another move out of weakness by the Fed today. With all this credit destruction around us, will Bernanke be able to print fast enough to ward off the coming deflationary depression? US is in a horrid economic position, damned if they do, damned if they don’t - and GB said an end to boom and bust, anything you say GB!
Gutted about Liverpool, can’t complain about the penalty or the ref, he was outstanding. Feel most sorry for Riise, shame the team couldn’t atone for that misfortune. Torres looked really gutted - what a player, come back even stronger next season El Nino.
293. But in Germany they increase the size of the Bundestag to compensate for the “uberhang”…
Fusion, however, could work quite well as an electoral pact. It’s possible, for instance, to imagine an SNP-Green pact along those lines, in one or two of the list regions.
10:34 What is wholsome abouy drinking beer are you utterly mad? I like football. But what is wrong with OCD sufferers. Beckham has OCD. You moron. It is a sign of genius. Pub bore. Hooligans v nerd Wow great one. You support thugs. Nerds v abusive thugs. I support the nerds you support the ladyboy pub bores.
293 - The trend may be the important thing, also possible underpolling of ethnic vote.
In German case, is the seat advantage to successful party intentional, to encourage stable government (something often cited as a major advantage of FPTP)?
Now he tells us…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3850640.ece
300 Excellent News. A real working MP.
Unlike that waste of space Des Browne - Labour’s tribute to our armed Forces, a part time Defence Minister during wartime.
299. There’s no real advantage, due to the “uberhang” provision…
Since the German MMP is 50/50 proportional, the uberhang provision is seldom necessary, although it did occur in 2005, producing an overhang of 16 seats in a Bundestag of 598…
Well I for one think Ken will win. I don’t put huge faith in YouGov’s specific figures, but even their trend has been moving towards Ken albeit from an incorrect starting point. Other pollsters have it neck or neck or Ken slightly in the lead. Oh and yes, I have taken advantage of the daft prices on Betfair in the last hour. If pushed I reckon Ken’s going to do it by 2-3% after preferences.
Did Livingstone resign his Commons seat in 2000? Considering that he also said mayors should be limited to two terms, I wouldn’t start getting sanctimonious.
303. My guess is a recount after 2nd prefs… (<1% margin)
Off to kip now ahead of campaigning for Labour tomorrow in a unitary council no-one actually wants.
301 - I love it when Tories get a chance to go on and on about the armed forces.
304: ‘Did Livingstone resign his Commons seat in 2000?’
Not in the sense that it prompted a by-election. The seat was fought at the 2001 GE as usual but with a new candidate.
303. Is the trend really towards Ken?
The last 4 YouGov polls in chronological order show a 1st preference lead for Boris of 6%, then 7%, then 11% and now 8%. That looks pretty solid to me.
One other thing - anyone thinking the 2nd preference votes will make much differece will be disappointed. Last time a lot of people didn’t even cast 2nd preferences. If Boris and Ken get about 75% combined on 1st preferences then I doubt 2nd preferences will move the 1st preference result by more than 1%. I would say 2% absolute maximum.
279 - They sure can. In practice, as Emily said earlier. I’m sure that’s what BNP voters will do. Boris rightly disowns fascists but he’s the candidate they will vote for to win. Just as unreconstructed Communists will swing for Ken.
289 - Mike (from New Jersey) - good to see you posting again - and yes, Ymlaen Cymru/Forward Wales did pull that stunt last year, I had forgotten.
Anyone in the Tory Party ever think of doing the same? I assume they must have, and ruled it out so as not to look sneaky, but does anyone know for sure.
303 - That would be a real nail-biter!
As for Boris doing two jobs I don’t see why he let this come out or why he wants to do it.
Politicians baffle me. They really do. And the more I know, the less I understand.
308 - Isn’t that exactly what Boris is proposing to do. Not his fault the general election will be in 2010 because of Gordon!
311 - It would provoke an immediate change of the rules if a real party tried it. They would also immediately drop about 10 points in the national polls as everyone deserted them for being cheats.
Forward Wales tried to do it and their vote collapsed. They ended up not going on the list ballot and despite all the pollsters suggesting John Marek holding Wrexham he was beaten by Labour. I am sure that the press coverage of Forward Wales thinking of pulling a fast one contributed to a near 10% swing against him.
In short, anyone could try it, but it would be bloody foolish for a major party to play that game.
311. I think it’s more likely that our parties are so set in their FPTP mindset, and are so unused to alternate systems like MMP, such an idea actually didn’t occur to them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some party try it at the next Mayoral election, though.
The only real risk is the possibility of bad PR - you can imagine headlines saying something like ‘Tories try to cheat the system by fielding ‘dummy party’!’. The reputation damage from that could outweigh the benefits gained from the tactic. But frankly, any party using such a tactic would be fully entitled to argue that they were doing nothing wrong, and acting entirely within the rules of the system. If such tactics are possible, then it’s only to be expected that parties will (eventually) take advantage of them; that they do so isn’t the fault of the parties, but of the inherent flaws in the voting system.
314 - I was writing my comment at the same time as yours, it’s amusing that we have such different opinions on this matter. You’re probably right that in the current climate of public cynicism about politicians, any party trying this trick would suffer too much bad publicity to make it worth trying. But I do think it could become worth doing for some party in the future. Quite simply, if it can work so successfully for the Italian parties, there’s no reason it can’t work here.
316 - I really think the outcry would be such that the electoral rules would be looked at and altered. It’s just naked cheating and actually seems to go totally against what the d’Hondt system is set up for.
314 - I hadn’t realised that the swing against John Marek had been because of that tactic - 10% is a serious punishment.
I wonder if it still would have been worth it for the Tories this time, as I suspect no-one would have noticed, and they could have got the Mayoralty and a majority on the GLA, and still get to use the defence of ‘it was within the rules’.
Alternatively, they could claim to be doing it to expose the failings of the Labour party in introducing electoral reform, and use that to stem any changes (PR) that Brown might offer to the Lib Dems in return for their support in a Hung Parliament. There’s definitely room to attack the gvt on the sloppy language they use in their legislation. What better way to prove it, and still benefit!
Beyond that - if we let them escape after the expenses scandal, and the loans for peerages scandal, and all the other scandals - being creative with the rules seems an odd thing for us to all care about!
317. MMP is a dumb system, subject to several obvious flaws..
Confusion between the constituency and list vote. Not the same as a 1st and 2nd preference, although many people in Scotland, London and Germany seem to think it is…
Uberhang problems…
Decoy lists: ’nuff said…
Loser is the winner: incumbent candidates defeated in constituencies but re-elected via the list makes a mockery of the election…
If the Betfair markets are to be believed, Johnson has more chance of being mayor than Obama has of being the Democratic nominee. Surely their prices can’t both be right?
319 - At least the Welsh realised that some seats having 2/3 candidates all becoming AMs was ridiculous so people started having to choose whether to fight a seat or stand on the list in 2007.
I don’t believe the stuff about Boris not having a by lection immeadiately.
1. he’ll be “two jobs” for months
2. ages for the Lib dems to get a band wagon going.
3. endless speculation
I wouldn’t mind that much if he just said he’d complete the term but not ” I might go sometime soon but not sure when.”
Have just been over to RCP and looked at todays polls and then the full weeks. Very considerable Clinton bounce. One today even has hr 2 points up in NC. Is it to late for obama to build a fire wall round wright before tuesday?