Will it be all change at Crewe on May 22nd?
April 30th, 2008
Can Labour contain the damage with an ultra-short campaign?
To all those outside London who have been saying that we have been over-doing the Boris-Ken contest can I say three words - Crewe and Nantwich. For after the London result on Friday the main UK domestic story will be the by election in the Cheshire seat.
This site follows the key action and nothing else will happen in the coming months that will provide such a good test of opinion ahead of the general election.
For given their high ratings in the polls and their likely successes tomorrow the scene should be set for something that we have not seen in UK politics since June 1982 - a Conservative gain in a Westminster by election.
The numbers look good for Cameron’s party - a solid second place last time some way ahead of the Lib Dems as well as a strongish base of councillors. Of course the Tories will desperately be trying to play down expectations but this really is one that they have to win - especially if it follows victory in the London Mayoral race.
In recent times by elections have tended to be dominated by local issues which has been the hallmark of the Lib Dem approach. If the Tories want to win they have to make it a referendum on Labour and Gordon Brown. You can see a campaign theme running along the lines of “Had Enough?”
The Lib Dems and Labour will be trying hard to pick holes in every aspect of the Tory approach to find something that gives them traction. Don’t write off Chris Rennard and the Lib Dem campaign team - they have the track record.
My guess is that the clash will generate much more media coverage than we have seen in by elections of late and that there will be a lot of betting.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I’m hesitating in between voting for UKIP, Christian Alliance and the Conservatives on Thursday. UKIP I think represent my views the best of any party and they’re recommended whenever I take one of those “who should you vote for” quizzes. The Christian Alliance because I agree with the message and think their candidate (Alan Craig) is a good man for an independent who deserves support for what he’s been doing as a councillor, but I don’t especially like voting for a purely faith-based organization. The Conservatives would only be to guarantee to kick Ken out (I initially ruled it out, the news about Kate Hoey as an advisor has made voting BJ more palatable).
What do people here think is the likelihood of various small parties to make a breakthrough? My preferred 1st preference choice is probably Alan Craig because I don’t like the UKIP guy very much. But if UKIP gets less votes than CC then my second vote will be wasted and I have no idea which party is more likely to get close enough to the 5-6% threshold to get an assembly member.
Comment by a voter Ben Leaper reported in the Telegraph:
“I have just filled in my postal vote for the London mayoral election. It was so confusing that I fear we’re heading for a calamity on May 1, with the outcome determined by whose supporters spoil fewer ballot papers. Everyone gets three ballot papers to fill in - mayor (first and second preferences), assembly constituency and assembly London-wide. Despite a 13-point set of instructions, I found two particular problems. One: there’s a confirmation slip that voters must sign and date. Such slips usually require today’s date, but anyone who writes it in will be disqualified - it needs to be filled in with your date of birth. Two: a fold-over and stick-down piece of paper seemed to have been perforated in the wrong place on my form (bear with me!), so that it came apart when I picked it up. This meant that the inner envelope containing the ballot papers was effectively unsealed. I puzzled over this, and eventually sealed it with sticky tape. Have I disqualified myself? Or would I have been disqualified if my vote arrived unsealed?”
What is the electoral commission doing? Look out for the headlines comparing UK and Zimbabwe.
The last time the Tories gained a Westminster by election was June 1982. Ok, yes, but that was from the old SDP (now the Lib Dems).
But when did the Tories last gain a seat from Labour?
Hasn’t the Labour by-election whizz refused to do this one?
1. I suggest you give your first preference to either UKIP or Christian Alliance, and your second to Boris Johnson. That way you both get to make your point, and ensure that your second vote gets counted.
I agree with Rod Crosby on this. There are no excuses for the Conservatives if they don’t take this.
It’s high risk for Labour though. If they get hammered in the locals (and the Conservatives will be canvassing Crewe & Nantwich because of the election to the new shadow authority) then this gives a terrific boost to the Conservative by-election campaign.
Socrates, if so that would be immensely cowardly of him!
Seems a very tough ask, but we have had a good local candidate in place for some time. As ever it’ll be LibDens splitting the Lab vote that’ll be the joker.
1 - I’d agree with Sean at 5; use your first preference to say who you really want out of the candidates (incidentally although I haven’t had time to follow closely, I’ve been impressed with Alan Craig - seems like a decent bloke and compared to some Cornerstonesque Christian headbangers, he seems to talk a lot of sense in terms of how he’d like to see more Christian values in politics.) Then your second will only count if you go for Boris/Ken, as there seems to be no suggestion that the final two will be any others.
Interestingly, it seems like there will be many voters giving Paddick second preference. Just to prime the number-crunchers on here, I wonder what the result would be if all voters who gave Paddick 2nd preference had swapped their preferences round?
As for Crewe, the Labour candidate is key. They’re in real trouble if they go for an establishment figure as they’ll be identified with the Government nationally - and the majority was less than 1100 in the 1980s. Pick a local candidate with a track record of being independent, to “follow in Gwyneth’s footsteps” and I’d imagine the majority will see them through, just.
sean, interested in your analysis - patrick henessy at the Telegraph thinks that we can’t take it b/c LDs will split the opposition vote. You disagree?
8 I meant splitting the anti-Lab vote. Hate typing on a phone
tpfkar said: “As for Crewe, the Labour candidate is key. They’re in real trouble…..” nuf said
3 5th May 1982 - MERTON, MITCHAM and MORDEN
Con gain from Labour (who had sought re-election as SDP).
9. That shouldn’t be a problem per se, I think. Suppose the Labour vote drops 12% (not implausible) and that splits between Conservative and Lib Dem (not implausible where the Conservatives are a long way ahead of the Lib Dems) then the Conservatives take the seat.
Monday night, Rome elected Alemanno, a former neo-fascist youth leader, — a few weeks after Silvio Berlusconi won the General Election, and secured a majoriy with an alliance with Umberto Bossi, the Northern League leader, a far-right party.
According to the Guardian:
On Monday night, the area around Rome’s city hall rang to chants of “Duce! Duce!”, the term adopted by Italy’s dictator, Benito Mussolini, equivalent to the German “Führer”. Supporters of the new mayor gave the fascist Roman straight-arm salutes.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/30/italy
2 - That’s a thought. Thinking back, I can’t be at all sure that i filled the date in correctly.
“Interestingly, it seems like there will be many voters giving Paddick second preference. Just to prime the number-crunchers on here, I wonder what the result would be if all voters who gave Paddick 2nd preference had swapped their preferences round?”
Well it’s a bit irrelevant since most of these will be people who had him as (genuine) second preference to Boris/Ken. Wouldn’t win though.
Crewe and Natwich will, I suspect, be determined by the economy, or rather the pound in people’s pockets.
Food prices have risen sharply (last week in Sainsbury’s, I overheard two couples remarking on how much more they were paying compared with the previous week, and a third bloke was anxiously adding up his bill). And then there is the 10p tax rate hitting people’s pay slips for the first time.
That is the story and (imo) the Tories will be daft to try and introduce an alternative narrative.
Yes, but what would the Tories do either to reduce prices or about the 10% tax.
17 - Even I, who am one of the least price sensitive people in the world, have noticed the food prices going through the roof in supermarkets.
Of course it goes without saying that i wasn’t quite so price sensitive about paying 6.95 for a round of two drinks last week!
18 — what the Tories would do about it really is not that important (especially since they will not form the government on Friday anyway). That is the luxury of opposition.
17
It might be a good time to buy grains on the market.
Rice Rationing Spreads as Far as Israel
http://www2.nysun.com/article/75387
NEW ZEALAND ELECTION COMING SOON
And the Right looks like a good bet. Another poll give the a big advance:
New Zealand National Party Extends Lead in Poll, Herald Says
By Tracy Withers
April 30 (Bloomberg) — New Zealand’s main opposition National Party extended its lead over the governing Labour Party, according to a poll published in the New Zealand Herald.
National support rose to 52.1 percent from 49.9 percent a month ago, the newspaper reported. Labour support fell to 37.2 percent from 39.3 percent.
NEW ZEALAND ELECTION COMING SOON
And the Right looks like a good bet. Another poll give the a big advance:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aYlZjRMbsIXE&refer=australia
Once again I totally agree with Mike. Crewe and Nantwich is going to be incredibly important. Tomorrow the Tories have 3 big goals:
1. Boris scalps Ken
2. To get higher than 38% which they did in the 2004 locals and which Hague achieved when they lost in 2001
3. To see Labour fall below 26% which they did in 2004 a year before winning a historic third term.
Of these, 1 is the biggest for the media narrative. The other two if not achieved will probably be part of the counter-spin.
However, as Mike rightly points out to show they are destined for power from this they MUST start gaining by-elections. In the run up to Margaret Thatcher’s win on May 03rd 1979 they had a string of by-election gains. Apart from the decidedly quirky Mitcham & Merton in 1982 (odd circumstances and the Falklands War) they haven’t done so since. To show they are the next Government in waiting, and not merely a good Opposition, they must win Crewe and Nantwich.
Never bet against the Clintons?
—-
“Everybody is talking today about how much the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s latest unrepentant militant remarks hurt his most prominent parishoner, Sen. Barack Obama, and his chances to win the Democratic presidential nomination and the general election. So much so that the Obama camp realized the latent danger overnight and the candidate was forced to speak out publicly a second time today, as The Ticket noted here earlier today.
There was little doubt left in today’s remarks by Obama, who recently said he could no more disown Wright than he could the black community. He pretty much disowned Wright today. Obama described himself as “outraged” and “saddened” by “the spectacle of what we saw yesterday.”
But now, it turns out, we should have been paying a little less attention to Wright’s speech and the histrionics of his ensuing news conference and taken a peek at….
who was sitting next to him at the head table for the National Press Club event.
It was the Rev. Dr. Barbara Reynolds, a former editorial board member of USA Today who teaches at the Howard University School of Divinity. An ordained minister, as New York Daily News writer Errol Louis points out in today’s column, she was introduced at the press club event as the person “who organized” it.
But guess what? She’s also an ardent longtime booster of Obama’s sole remaining competitor for the Democratic nomination, none other than Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York. It won’t take very much at all for Obama supporters to see in Wright’s carefully arranged Washington event that was so damaging to Obama the strategic, nefarious manipulation of the Clintons.”
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/04/wrightsetup.html
—–
Clinton is a dangerous politician if this story is true…
13 thanks Sean. You are always insightful.
23. On some of the latest polls, the Tories would be winning C&N at a general election, never mind a by-election. But then, on the polls at the time, Labour would have won the Eastleigh by-election by 6000 votes, as their election literature never tired of saying.
3 - As 12 says, the Mitcham and Morden was certainly a Tory gain from Labour. It had never been won by the SDP. However, if you are looking for more “normal” gains, look to 1974-1979:
Ilford North 1978
Ashfield 1977
Birmingham Stetchford 1977
Workington 1976
Walsall North 1976
Woolwich West 1975
This is important to note. Remember, this was the last Parliament where the Tories were the opposition and not in internal chaos as they were 1997-2005. Let’s be clear - the Conservatives do “do” by-elections and really have to win this well if they want to say they are on their way. Seats like Walsall and Ashfield registered swings of over 20% and several of these were far, far more unlikely gains than Crewe (which is the sort of seat the Tories could plausibly win in a good year outside a General Election).
11 - Icarus, Guido suggests that Gwyneth Dunwoody’s daughter may go for the nomination. That’s exactly the kind of candidate I had in mind, I’d expect Labour to walk it if they pick her.
In Bromley in 2005, Carol Forth would surely have safely been elected, however the Tories chose a candidate in Bob O’Neill who appeared in detail in every LD leaflet and had so many flaws that one of the Tories’ safest seats nearly went down.
zzzzz…5 hours sleep and have to talk lucidly on prison pay on Radio 4 in 15 minutes…
12. Yes, and it was complicated by the close three-way race between the Conservative, Labour and SDP candidates. The Tory vote actually fell slightly, but the SDP candidate fell just short anyway. So it’s somewhat suspect as a valid measure of a Tory gain.
Still, the Tories did win many “valid” by-elections in the 1970s. They should at least come very close in this one.
errors in 28: “in 2006, Caroll”
Apologies
C&N is going to be enormous, all 3 parties are going to throw the kitchen sink at this. Labour need to retain this to have a hope of changing the narrative, the Lib Dems need to do spectacularly well here to show that they are not stalling under Clegg. The Conservatives need to win to validate their narrative. To my mind the pressure is on all but the Conservatives here in most scenarios. If Labour lose this seat to the Conservatives it is a disaster for Labour and a huge fillip for the Conservatives, no problem. If the Conservatives come achingly close then it is containable from the Conservative spin side as they can point out that Labour have had to spend a lot to just scrape home. If Labour wins comfortably that could be a problem for the Conservatives as it might lead to uncomfortable questions, if the Lib Dems were to win this then it would be an unparalleled disaster for the Conservatives and Labour.
I think we can discount the Lib Dems winning as they have nothing to squeeze and the Conservatives will fight to avoid the squeeze, and they cannot claim with a straight face that only they can win C&N. I think the result will go down to the wire, and will probably be won by a very tiny amount either way. I think we could have recounts on this. This is the best prospect for a Conservative gain at a by-election in donkeys years but until I see it I can’t quite bring myself to hope.
It is interesting that they are pressing on quite so quickly with Crewe given that the 10p tax rate issue is unlikely to be settled in the interim.
Not hard to work out that Crewe will be disproportionately impacted by the doubling of the lower tax band. Just look at the employment breakdown:
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/pca/2030043562/report.aspx
2. This isn’t just a problem in London. In Gloucester the postal vote instructions were very misleading
(a) The instructions told voters “After you have marked your ballot paper insert as indicated by the arrows then seal the envelope section and post it back as soon as possible.” There were no arrows on the envelopes or the ballot paper.
(b) There were two envelopes but the instructions implied only one
(c) The instructions did not say in which envelope the ballot paper is to be placed.
(d) The instructions did not say the statement must be signed and returned with the ballot paper
(e) The instructions did not say which envelope the statement is to be placed in (my wife got this wrong - and she is a lawyer)
(f) The instructions did not say that the smaller envelope should be placed in the larger one and that one posted back - although this one you should be able to guess
I’ve been told that in one ward 117 voters had got the procedure wrong in some way when the large envelopes were first opened!
Nothing to squeeze, James (32)? But Labour is in free fall - there is everything for the Lib Dems to squeeze, especially as former Labour voters are unlikely to really want to vote Tory.
And somebody above was already gloating that the Tories had a good start to their campaign, since they were fighting local elections in C&N. Presumably that would also be true of the other two major parties, wouldn’t it?
So I would tend to see this as a three-horse race. But we shall see things more clearly once the local elections are declared.
The writ issued and her funeral hasn’t even taken place, why the haste?
29 The Tories do NOT need to show they can win seats they don’t need to form a Government with a comfortable working majority. And as it would perhaps hasten the demise of Gordon - far more valuable to them come May 2010 than having the Hon. Member for Crewe sat on their benches - a very close second might still be their best result.
That said, I speak as someone who campaigned very actively for the massive upset of the Tories’ Ashfield win in 1977. And certain parallels might apply - that win was down to working class Labour voters who sat on their hands on polling day. [It was a well hard place for us Tories to canvass - massive council estates (pre-right to buy, so all local authority) where your greatest risk was knocking on a door and waking up a miner on night-shift! Proper Labour-monkey voting areas. But we took Maggie to queue up to buy her fish and chips in Hucknall - and the press loved it. It does seem like it was in a VERY different age though. Perhaps Cameron should go and play a couple of games of bingo?!? Just as long as he doesn't win THAT top prize....]
Phillipe at 24. This is what was being rumoured yesterday, see my postings where a US blog or two were saying Wright may endorse Clinton!
Re Crewe and Nantwich: I live within close striking distance of the seat and will try to give as unbiased personal assessment or two, if others would be interested.
18 - Icarus - “Yes, but what would the Tories do either to reduce prices or about the 10% tax.”
Wow. Forensic politics at this hour in the morning.
38 yes please, Dave s
I have no ideas if Tamsin Dunwoody will stand, though the haste in calling the election might suggest that the Labour Party has a candidate in mind (or is that hoping for too much?). However Tamsin Dunwoody, as I pointed out yesterday, lives on a smallholding in Haverfordwest with 5 children.
Would she really give this up for Crewe and Nantwich? Perhaps the Labour election supremo (who he/she these days?)has told her “Don’t worry, you wont need to move, you wont win!”
I am surprised this has been called so soon - with no Labour candidate selected. I’d have thought they’d wait a bit hoping for better days.
“An unbiased personal assessment” - Another first for PoliticalBetting.com!!!
Seriously that would be helpful dave s but could we know where you are coming from. Which party did you vote for last time, do you eat yogurt, are you now or have you ever been a Jacobite. That sort of thing!
Might it be Chris Leslie, who is northern and did n’t get the nomination he was seeking in Hull?
28,41 Are Labour seats to be passed from generation to generation like hereditary peerages?
How many Labour MPs are the sons/daughters of MPs? How many Tory MPs?
It would be interesting to know the answer to this.
38
Thanks Dave,
I’ll go read your post now.
And I’m very interested by your assessment.
45 Or perhaps Crewe represents an opening for the Kinnock offspring?
I wonder why Stuart Dickson hasn’t followed his usual practice of interrupting the thread after the second post…
http://tinyurl.com/67utgo
A drawn-out campaign would give the Conservatives a chance to really hammer home their national poll advantage, so it makes sense for Labour to cut them short. I would still expect the Conservatives to punch a hole in Labour’s lead, though.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
14- Philippe- this is a disaster. My wife is utterly frantic about the situation in Italy.
We have a facist in Rome,
Berlusconi celebrating the return of the falange (facist black shirts)
Bossi (virtually the deputy PM) threatening the left opposition with the army
Facism has returned to Italy under a right wing populist. This is terrible
ON INTRADE
Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008,
Last Trade : 25.5
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=177134
45 - For starters there are Labour MPs, Mark Fisher (son of Tory Sir Nigel Fisher) Hilary Benn, and Iain McCartney and on the Conservative side, there’s Andrew Mitchell, Dominic Grieve Nick Hurd and Douglas Hogg. Must be loads more..
Sean Fear; From my circle of friends in London, I don’t think either of the candidates will break the 40% mark on first preferences because people do understand the arguement you put forward. Many are enjoying the benefit of the electoral system and supporting a smaller party whilst putting Boris/Ken second. I think the “others” may do a lot better first round than expected.
“Berlusconi celebrating the return of the falange”
Wasn’t the Falange a Spanish formation, not Italian?
51
I know. It’s crazy. Surrealistic. Retro-Futuristic. The past is the future; yet the future is now.
As you can read, I don’t know what to think about it; I’m not surprised; yet I’m stunt.
54
Like the BNP; signal from Italy…
No doubt about it, the Tories have to win Crewe and win it well.
No excuses at all, it simply must fall even if it isn’t a target seat they need to win.
Just listened to part of Brown’s interview on today, he was…predictable. Denied anything wrong with 10p tax abolition, came up with the same excuses that have so far rang hollow. I can see why he avoided having Cameron and Clegg against him though, they would have ripped him to bits. He speaks very slowly and stumbles at the best of times, imagine what would happen with them interrupting!
Cameron has a destination to get to, and the focus to get there. You might dissagree with what he says, but he sounds like he has the conviction to say it and make his points. For Brown the journey seems to be its own reward. He talks and talks without ever saying anything, and sounds unconvincing throughout.
Cuddles (58), when you say “He talks and talks without ever saying anything, and sounds unconvincing throughout”, are you talking about Brown or about Cameron?
Just for clarification…
12
I think the Falklands could have influenced that one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitcham_and_Morden_by-election,_1982
50
Your worried! they’re sh***ing themselves in Abyssinia (Ethiopia)
59. Brown, which would be why the previous sentance had his name in.
Poor old Dave must be cursing his luck. Yesterday on the Today Programme he got John Humphries as an interviewer; this morning Gordon gets Des O’Connor.
Calling this by election with such undue haste is particularly callous for the Dunwoody family. Her children are being given no time to mourn before faced with the issue of standing as her replacement.
Decisions made in this emotional state are not good for them or their party.
35. “So I would tend to see this as a three-horse race. ”
Bet you (i.e. Lib Dems) don’t put that on the bar-charts, though.
63 - presumably done because Brown knows the opposition parties won’t want to be seen campaigning before the funeral, thus reducing the campaign even more?
Very distateful, and should hurt Labour even more.
51 This is as far as it will get (Hillary at 23-25 on Intrade). Hillary will not tighten more than this. Obama is now forced to disown pastor Wright. This will not hurt him significantly among black voters, and help him enough among whites to pull through with a big win in North Carolina, and a close result in Indiana. That will be enough.
Time to sell her, and as usual I follow my own advice.
Bar Chart? I think this calls for a pie chart with the Lib Dem segment at the top!
Tyson,
Is your wife Italian? I suspect this is mostly just rhetoric, but we’ll see.
61
I think its time cuddles, someone asked the obvious question: Is English your first language?
Yes, I thought that was what you must have meant, Cuddles (61). Especially since I suspect you might possibly be Tory-inclined.
However, do you not think that “He talks and talks without ever saying anything, and sounds unconvincing throughout” applies even more to Cameron?
Have just entered the PB mayoral Competition. Open ’til 7pm tonight click on competitions under Categories -top right.
[66] Thanks for that, Jan. I’m very long of McCain and Obama, but I get carried out if Hillary wins. I’ve been getting a bit sweaty……
On the list of seats of Conservatives would win based on the 9% swing the News of the Wold marginals poll gave them, Crewe and Nantwich was right at the end. In other words, in a general election the Tories wouldn’t need to win this seat to get a very comfortable majority. Added to that you don’t know how Gwynith Dunwoodys personal vote is going to play out, and I think the Conservatives would be doing well to get within a 1,000 votes of Labour in this seat.
Heffer on the, ‘Ken & Boris Show’ worth a read!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/04/30/do3001.xml
Brown told the BBC the government “didn’t cover as well as we should have” losses to some low earners and pensioners aged 60 to 64.
Spin warning.
Anyone who reached the age of 64 on or before 5th April this year is NOT affected by the abolition of the 10% tax band. The pensioners aged between 55 and 63 are the vulnerable ones.
There used to be over 700 steam engine drivers working out of Crewe. Well, I thought it was interesting.
If the Tories cant win Crewe and Nantwich, then all bets are off.
69. Yep, unfortunately I grew up during this labour government, so it is dreadful. Thats what comes from having an english teacher who’s main subject was PE.
14. What utter tripe. Anyone without even enough of a sense of history to distinguish between fascism and nazism, really oughtn’t be allowed to write in the public sphere.
50 & 56 Tyson’s missus is right to be concerned. The total disarray and surrender by the Italian left is extremely dangerous. It might interest readers to know that there is a lot of disgruntlement in the Far Right after Fini threw his lot in with Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party and many of the raised arm salutes and cries of “Duce” are aimed at Fini and his leadership. The old MSI has always had a very strong base in the outskirts of Rome (e.g round Ciampino - where you land with your low-cost flights) and mostly felt very frustrated to not have a separate identity in the general election just gone - the choice of an unelectable small Right party was not a reasonable alternative and it is the latter that Philippe should be comparing with the BNP.
78 I knew there had to be a reason!
A word of advice, as nothing gives the Tories more joy, than sending civil servants off to the, ‘Job Centre’ it might be an idea to prepare for the deluge.
The current national swing alone would give a neck and neck result.(Incidentally the vote share of 32.6% for the Cons in 2005 was virtually identical to their 2005 national GE share)
On top of the national swings we can add a “by election bash” factor usually a further 5%,particularly if the defending party had a popular MP.
That would deliver Con 45,Lab 36,Lib 16.
now of course the key question is will all the anti Labour vote go to the main challenger the 2nd placed Tories?The Lib dems could wexpect som eof this but at the same time may themselves be squeezed by the Tories.Also the last years Byelection in soythall did not produce amajor swing to them even though they wre in 2nd place.And last bbut not least there are now other aprites picking up an anti Labour vote noteably the BNP.
So I would see the Tories,picking up half of the anti Labour swing ie around 7%,but then sqeezing the lib Dems of their bit say another 3%I think the real threat to the tory victory is not the KLib demsbiur the perforrmance of the BNP and UKIP,the former having don every well in local by elections.
So final predictions Tory victory,even bigger drop in Labour share than national and by election bash would suggest,stand still for lib dems and strong performance by minor parties.
Result Con 42%,Lab 29%,Lib 16%,others 13%.
Rogerh
81. my office is massivley understaffed, so no sacking for me.
77. But this seat is right at the upper end of the list if seats the NotW marginals poll would give them. That was to get a majority of 64 and frankly the Tories could easily govern with half that. I think the main thing is to see a big swing from Labour to the Conseratives, but expecting them to win this looks a bit much. I don’t think this is really a marginal seat….
79 - unfortunately, that would eliminate all of the Guardian’s columnists. I agree that the lamentation seems a touch overdone (except for the Italians, obviously). It was the palingenetic, irredentist core that defined Nazism that makes it so much more dangerous than fascism. The latter is ultimately just a local problem.
84 - but it’s not a general election, is it, GIN? Normally swings away from the government in by-elections are bigger than they would be at a general (protest vote / protest stay-at-home). I really think the Tories need to be taking this - it’s understandable that you might want to damp down expectations but it won’t really wash!
I would make an exception if Tamsin Dunwoody was the candidate.
Of course, Thursday’s results will paint expectations in a new light in any case.
2, 15. I’ve a vague recollection that the space on the postal vote form for the date looked like “_ _ _ _ 19 _ _”, which should have signalled that it wasn’t looking for the current date.
85. Quite, or, put in a simpler way, fascism contained little link with racism. It was just an extreme expression of nationalism.
Plus Musso had next to no agenda other than personal power and, apparently, entertaining the opposite sex.
83 81. my office is massivley understaffed, so no sacking for me.
I’d like a pound for everytime someone has said that to me!!
Now the Poles are returning home, think plumbing!
86. Well, I’m just calling it as I see it. Whilst I have Conservative sympathies, I don’t belong to the party or campaign for them or anything. Whilst I accept we should see a bigger swing in a by election than a general election, theres no guarantee all of that will go to the Tories. Some of it will almost certainly go to the Lib-Dems. The Conservatives may pull this off, but personally I think Labour will just hold on.
Brown was awful on radio 4 this morning. A complete failure to communicate - just the usual mantra of economic facts and figures but no feeling of connecting to the public mood.
90 - Fair enough, it will certainly be a good three-way betting heat. If the Conservatives are aiming for a majority then I do think they ought to be taking C & N. However a Tory majority is a very big ask in itself, and has only really become realistic in the last month or two…
The Tories must win Crewe & Nantwich and I firmly expect that they will. If they don’t, they need to start their by-election team from scratch.
In an odd way, Labour are doing so badly at the moment that a by-election loss, no matter how spectacular, should be discounted. This is about the Tories and their ability to win real elections. That said, Labour’s collective nerve seems shot to pieces and although a bad result for them shouldn’t mean much, it probably would lead to a renewed round of infighting. Gordon Brown could be in for a long hot summer.
Slightly off thread, but Nicky Campbell skewered Brown this morning on 5 live. We had the Brown waking up… first thought thinking about the long term problems of the country, plus tractor production figures…………….
Than Campbell said to Brown, If I had asked the same question to Tony Blair He would have said, my first thought was a nice cup of tea…. Campbll then mentioned the human side of Brown was was the voters wanted to see.. (none of that is verbatim but its the essence of it) Its worth a listen to(on listen again at 7.50am. )Brown was dreadful, but sadly Campbell did not ask Brown whether inflation was 2%….
68- sean fear- my wife is from florence.
One of the worst things is that people in Italy do not know what is happening, difficulty when the politcians own the media. According to Italian news the cries of “Duce,” and shoulder salutes were done by left wing agitators to undermine Alemanno.
The point of history is that at the time you never know when when the tipping point is.
Berlusconi is openly hostile to the judiciary in Italy, and owns the media. What a combination!
Betfair are offering only 1.05 on the BNP winning a London Assembly seat - surely they won`t get anywhere near having enough votes for this -how many do they need ?
96 (a) Betfair are not offering that, someone using betfair is. The spread is so wide (1.02 - 1.25) that all we can infer from betfair is that the market judges the probability of the BNP winning a seat to be somewhere between 80 & 98%
(b) I think they will win a seat, partly because of the market data available but also because of Sean Fear’s analyses on this site; indeed I think they are more likely to win 2 than 0.
What a coincidence my aunt is Florence!
96 - They need 5% of the list vote - almost certain I would think.
Cheers -just astonished by it all …
[82] I agree: the BNP intervention will hand Crewe to the Tories.
If that happens, I expect that AV for Parliamentary elections will rise to the top of Brown’s agenda. Mind you, that could be a double-edged sword, particularly if he goes for the Supplementary Vote system used in the London Mayoralty.
91. Yep. He kept quoting facts and figures, quite happy to trundle along with those. Any question asked got bogged down in statistics, didn’t sound good.
Yes, if the opposition cant win a seat like Crewe when it is 10+ points ahead in the polls then there is something very wrong.
Falange.
Franco adopted a lot of the Falange’s policies and folded the Falange movement into the Carlist (royalist) movement to form the official “Nationalsyndicalismo”
I suppose Silvio is referring to a broad right-wing coalition taking hold of Italy that can contain both facists and the centre-right. The Falange’s legacy lasted for 40 years in Spain - a scary propostion if you’re on the left in Italy..
80- el windy,
I must say thank god we have a decent right wing party in this country. For all my sniping and left wing rhetoric one only has to look at Italy to appreciate just what a good, solid, decent, honest party the Conservative party is here.
And for all the Tory sniping, hand wringing, and talks of disaster, I am sure that they can put their hands up and admit that the Labour party in power hasn’t been that bad (exception of course bolted horse who would want to shoot all lefties for treachery).
We are really lucky in the UK to have a stable democracy with 2 great parties sharing power.
Italy is terrifying
It’s official: UK house prices have gone YOY negative. The long overdue 30 to 40% downward correction is underway.
That’s the main plank of Brown’s, speculative, debt-fuelled, ponzi economy pulled away. It’s the economy, stupid!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7374730.stm
Interesting to see GIN playing down the Tory chances. Compare with Ealing South, where the Tories were starting in 3rd and had no hope of winning - they were talking it up then!
Interesting that at the same time as the Tories were winning spectacular by election victories at Strechford and Ashfield in early 1977, they failed to win Grimsby. There are some interesting parallels with Crewe. The by election at Strechford was caused when Roy Jenkins resigned to take up a well-paid job in the EU (although it was not called that then). There was a huge swing against Labour in the resulting by election.
The Grimsby by-election was caused by the sudden death of the widely-respected Tony Crosland. The Labour candidate to replace him was a well-known local TV presenter, Austin Mitchell. The result was that Labour held on in a seat notionally less safe than either Ashford or Strechford.
I write this from memory so all the details might not be exactly correct. But on the face of it Crewe looks similar to Grimsby. The Tories can expect a fight especially if Labour pick an attractive local candidate.
First annual fall in house prices for 12 years:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7374730.stm
Oh, how the voters must be pining for good-times Tony… Brown did Blair’s legacy a favour by forcing him out at the top of the feel-good curve. It could have been Blair facing all this grief - ahead of an ignominious slinking away later this summer. As ever, Gordon’s timing was impeccably bad.
98-Icarus- you should start calling her Firenze to confuse her.
I can never understand why we have to call foreign cities something different (vice versa other countries of course- i.e Londra)
101 - I would have thought the BNP intervention would make it slightly harder for the Tories to win Crewe as they are slightly more likely to attract people who would otherwise vote Tory (although many BNP voters would either not vote or vote for a party other than the Tories - not saying it is a uniform rule).
108 “The by election at Strechford was caused when Roy Jenkins resigned to take up a well-paid job in the EU”
As was Ashfield - former MP (Marchand?) did a runner - another significant reason Labour lost. Voters punish unneccesary by-elections. Another reason Crewe is a tricky win for the Tories.
107 We tories have to be winning in C&N and if we don’t then I would say we have a problem - the by-election team would need to be rebuilt from scratch and by-elections would need to be taken seriously by the national party.
I don’t think however that a loss by anything up to 1500 votes would be too bad a result but it would still be a bad result.
I see Sky is running the story about retrospective tax changes on “big” cars. Apparently anyone owning a big car will be hit with an extra 200 quid road tax bill - has frank field been consulted?
Quite, tyson, why doesn’t everyone just use English?
104- political capital- it was a complete myth to use the term “centre right” to describe Berlusconi’s coalition of ex forza Italia corrupt, cronies, the facist Northern League, and Fini’s rabble.
The old christian democrats under Casini were only central part of it, and they scarpered
88
Mussolini declared that, ‘The Fascist program is not a theory of dogmas about which no discussion is tolerated. Our programme is in process of continual elaboration and transformation.’ This pragmatism, opportunism, and open-endedness were already giving rise to the crticism that Fascists had no real doctrine save brute force.
Emphasis on action and dynamism, and the precept that action preceded ideology, had the effect of exaggerating the Fascist’s philosophical vitalism and nonrationalism.
Economically the party wanted to reduce state expenditures, improve the tax structure, eliminate most state subsidies, guarantee free trade, and encourage capital formation, as well as support the eight-hour day and progressive social legislation.
Well a bit there for everyone really!!
From A History of Fascism 1914-1945 by Stanley G. Payne.
ISBN: 1-85728-595-6 PB
93/103: The Tories have to be very careful not to do an Ealing Southall again by predicting a win, throwing everything into it and then not win.
Labour have already started the dirty tricks by tabling the writ before Gwyneth Dunwoody hasn’t even been buried.
117. Is it me or does that first paragraph sound suspiciously New Labour? Substitute “brute force” for “statism”.
112. It was Marquand. Prompting a famous intervention by Dennis Skinner during Roy Jenkins’ valedictory speech:
Roy Jenkins: “I leave this party without rancour.”
Skinner: “I thought you were taking Marquand with you.”
Marquand ended up going into academia, first at Salford and later in Oxford I think.
116) OK tyson, that sounds right.
I was just having a read of the Falange’s “27 puntos” which Franco adopted to see what policies might be in store for the new Italian Falange…
http://www.fuenterrebollo.com/Gobiernos/Politica/falange.html
I suspect that the Lib Dems would happily swop a decent third in C&N for a win in Henley a couple of weeks later.
Ralph, they could just gather up the “it will be difficult” posts of the assorted Conservatives on here. They have convinced me that they will be doing well if they save their deposit.
Tyson I thought the falange was Spanish not Italian.
74, Gee, anyone would think that Heffer disliked Johnson. Bearing in mind that Johnson had the courage to carry the can for Heffer’s piece in the Spectator insulting Liverpudlians, I’d see that piece as fairly contemptible on Heffer’s part (am I right in thinking that Heffer never had the balls to come forward and take the rap himself for his own (unsigned) piece?).
I worked in Crewe of a period. Depressing place. Depressing- watching the Alex at Gresty Road. Is Dario O Gradi still there?
I’ve heard it is full of Poles now- ripe for an Alemanno character to blame them for eating babies, bla, bla…
Dunwoody was liked, and known as the local MP, and will carry an incumbency factor.
I tell you what though I cannot see it flipping to the Tories. I have a good instinct for these things, and will be backing Labour in the last week or so of the contest when their price starts easing way out.
124 - “thought the falange was Spanish” - or Lebanese…
124- Witan- thanks. I have been corrected above. Getting my Francos and Mussolinis mixed up.
105,
“I must say thank god we have a decent right wing party in this country. For all my sniping and left wing rhetoric one only has to look at Italy to appreciate just what a good, solid, decent, honest party the Conservative party is here.”
Tyson waxing lyrical about the virtues of the Tory Party.
Has anyone checked the weather forecast for Hades - I’m predicting a sudden hard frost …
120 Thanks. Classic Skinner!
I disagree with Mike and various other posters that Crewe is a ‘must-win’ by-election for the Tories. It would be seen as a nasty set back but not a disaster because, in recent years, Parliamentary by-elections have become more like council by-elections, ie - often quite sui generis and hard to extrapolate.
Having said that, there is, of course, a broader truth underlying by-election results since 1997: voter resistance to the Conservative Party. Even when people have wanted to give Labour a kick they have not used the Tories as their weapon of choice. If Edward Timpson wins it mark a partial reversion to Ashfield-style by-election politics and a further stage in the rehabilitation of the Conservatives.
All three main parties - plus the BNP - will throw everything into Crewe, making it the most exciting by-election for ages (and a huge traffic generator for PB!). Let’s hope a newspaper is, even now, commissioning a poll of the constituency to give us some early indicators.
re my 94 Nick Robinson has picked up on Nicky Campbell’s interview with Gordon. I think the comment about Gordon speaking in “fluent human” very cutting..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2008/04/agony_for_the_pm.html
United States.
Democrat Michigan delegation.
New York Times reporting Clinton camp want a 73-55 delegate representation at the Convention, Obama a 64 - 64 split and “A Gang of Four” Michigan Democrat Power Brokers have suggested 69-59.
Obama has rejected that. At the level of 10 or less it hardly seems worth fighting over.
Boris out to 1.45 at BF. Will the last YouGov, which I suppose will be out today, show a tighter race?
If Rod is reading, he asked for an update on what could happen re MI and FL for the Democrats.
The Rules and Bylaws Committee meets on May 31st to decide whether to enforce, reduce or undo the punishment. One proposal has that MI and FL will get half their pledged and all their Superdelegates. The RBC set the original penalty, though may have acted ultra vires.
From there, the decision of whether to add some/any/all MI/FL delegates/SDs to the Temporary Roll (who can by default vote at the Convention prior to their being challenged) will be made by the much larger Credentials Committee which will meet (I think) on the 29th June. If on the Temporary Roll, Florida can vote to seat Michigan, and Michigan to seat Florida. The other surprising thing is that whilst ‘Uncommitted votes’ in MI should (IMHO) be added to Obama’s column, the resulting delegates should not be - the convention that chose ‘Uncommitted’ delegates in MI was dominated by those who chose the Clinton delegates, so up to half of the ‘Uncommitted’ Delegates could be for Clinton as well.
If the two states are added to the Temporary Roll (which would take 80% of the Credentials Committee, or 20% plus a majority of the Convention Floor including MI and FL) I think they’ll be sat in full.
If the Credentials Committee doesn’t add them to the Temporary Roll, I don’t think they’ll be seated at all.
If the RBC agrees a half-pledged-all-Superdelegates deal, it wil be because that has been accepted in advance by the State Party Chairmen. In such a case, they will not push for full admittance.
SO - if RBC passes the comprimise, that will be the solution.
If the RBC seats them in full, that will be the solution
If the RBC refuses to seat them, and they are not added to the Temporary Roll by the Credentials Committee, they will almost certainly not be seated
IF the RBC refuses to seat them, but the Credentials Committee adds them to the Temporary Roll (or submits a minority report to be confirmed by the Convention Floor), I’d give even odds that they are seated in full versus not being seated at all.
Could the Tories move the writ for Henley next Monday and hold that on 29 May? The Tories would pour all their resources into Crewe, and dare the Lib Dems to give Henley a go. That would probably result in two Tory victories.
109 - Bollocks to that. I want a 20% cut so that me and my girlfriend can stop chucking our money at buy to let crooks who wrecked the housing market in the first place and are hopefully getting their greedy piggy fingers burned.
**ends unusual socialist rant**
136 - Is there zero possibility of holding Henley on the 22nd as well? Maybe Boris could apply for the Chiltern Hundreds today if that would beat the deadline?
On to the by-election. I think we’ve forgotten how to contest them. In fact, we’ve hardly bothered for 20 years.
I won’t be putting a penny on us winning it unless I see some solid data saying we will. I have no faith in our by-election machinery
134
Jan, I have been watching for last 15 mins or so, BJ easing and someone trying to get laid with him, looks like yougov gonna make it closer.
BJ 1.5
KL 2.96
101% overround
129- watching Rome, a city traditionally known for being itellectually left (writers, filmakers, artists) flipping to a neo facist makes one a bit reflective. It does have a an extreme edge- the ultras, but this has always been marginal.
I go to Roma probably once a year- a hotel near the Piazza del Populo. It is such a wondrous city.
As el windy said above (80)- the left has collapsed. Italy is ruled by a populist who owns the media, and is openly antagonistic to the judiciary.
I think in the next few years we are going to see the re-emergence of left wing terrorism in Italy, and a bloody cycle of right wing re-crimination and violence. The back drop will be economic collapse, forced withdrawal from the Euro, further marginalisation, and open state and Berlusconi media hostility to immigration.
As Philiipe said earlier the past becomes the future and the present.
@138:
PEDANT POINT:
Boris will probably apply for the Manor of Northstead, not the Chiltern Hundreds.
NICK PALMER NOMINATED FOR AWARD …. NICK PALMER NOMINATED FOR AWARD
The Jacobite News Network (JNN) can exclusively reveal to PB that Nick Palmer has been nominated for the monthly VIP award. The much coveted Vomit Inducing Politician Award comes after Mr Palmer acting as a surrogate for spineless ministers (again)appeared on Radio4 to defend the scrapping of the first increase in ten years to prisioners of 150 pennies a week to a grand total of £5.50 per week !!!
Mr Palmer was barely audible above the rampant nationwide laughter as he indicated that the government decision had absolutely nothing to do with elections within 48 hours. Accident and Emergency Rooms in hospitals throughout the land have reported long queues of patients awaiting treatment from rib tickling injuries caused by one of the funniest statements by a government MP in decades.
@141:
Yes, the civil war that will engulf and destroy the EU will probably start in Italy. It seems as good a flashpoint as any.
105 Tyson. I agree. Most concerned Italians are forever pointing to the lack of “senso civico” in Italian society. We have no Sir Humphrey’s who can keep things ticking over despite the stupidity of the elected representatives. The average Italian mayor thinks that he/she can turn their hands at all levels of administration, including road sweeping, and the average road sweeper thinks they have full mayoral powers.
117 coldstone. Its not incidental that the only authors who have been capable of objectively analysing fascism in Italy have been English.
140 EDW “Jan, I have been watching for last 15 mins or so, BJ easing and someone trying to get laid with him, looks like yougov gonna make it closer.”
How hard can it be to get laid with Boris?
123: The Tories will be up against the Labour spin machine, that though damaged by Brown and Balls, still works. Better to make a win in Crewe look unlikely then win, than make it look certain then lose.
145: Apart from say Emilio Gentile.
tyson @ 105- Heartwarming post and one of the pleasantest I have read for some time.
143 - Not saying it was nothing to do with the elections, but did anyone actually think that Prisoners should get the payrise? I’m not entirely sure why prisoners get paid.
What sort of muppet proposes such a rise when public sector pay is being constrained to below 2% (except for teachers)
146
Please, this is a family show and all three of Ken’s families are watching!
124) Yes the Fallange were Spanish not Italian. Berlusconi is the one drawing the parallels between his coalition and the Spanish Falange. “We are the new Falange” said he..
Now, Mayoral election - WHERE ARE YOU DON?!
WRT Franco, Anthony Beevor makes a (on the face of it) odd, but actually well-argued comparison between the early years of the Franco regime and the communist governments in Eastern Europe, in the chapter of his book entitled “The Franquist Gulag.” Franco’s regime kept hundreds of thousands imprisoned throughout the 1940s, proscribed freemasonry, nationalised wide swathes of industry with minimal compensation, and treated the Church as an arm of the State. A regime founded on an anti-communist crusade ended up resembling communist regimes in a number of respects.
Franco’s government was actually a good deal more brutal and authoritarian than that of Mussolini.
@105:
That’s very touching, Tyson. The problem is, of course, that those supposedly honourable parties of the left support the structures that are giving rise to Italy’s descent: the European Union.
You are part of the problem. Only we can be part of the solution.
@151:
Are you expecting a sneak preview of tomorrow’s result?
154) There’s a yougov mayoral poll being published today.
From BBC:
——————–
Nick Palmer, Labour MP and member of the justice select committee, said it was right the rise is prisoners’ pay was put on hold at a time when other public service workers were being asked to accept pay rises of 2-3%.
“I do not think you can sensibly or even reasonably say that prisoners should get a pay rise of 38%,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
——————————
Since there has been no rise since Labour came to power in 1997 and inflation since then has been 38%, can’t see why not?
[101] I think I’d like to resile from my own post (I’ve always wanted to use that word, wonder if I’ve got it right…)
I hadn’t appreciated at the time that the by-election had actually been called. Either Labour think it’s a goner and they want to get the (further) bad news over and done with, or their canvass returns for the local elections suggest to them that they can hold the seat - if so, going quickly makes sense as it will move the narrative on from Boris’s triumph. Also the BNP are not fielding many candidates in the Crewe locals, and Labour may wish to wrong-foot them with an earlier, rather than a later poll.
@155:
w00t!
94 MTF - Just listened to “Tractors” Brown being interviewed by Nicky Campbell and yes he was truly awful - I loved the bit where Campbell quoted his, Tractor’s, own previously ultra damning words about Leavingsoon (tomorrow even)!
156 - mirthios - why are we *paying* prisoners at all?!
[152] Sean Fear suggest that Franco’s government was actually a good deal more brutal and authoritarian than that of Mussolini.
Franco had the advantage, if you can call it that, that all the Jews had been thrown out of Spain long before he was born.
@160:
Not paying people for the work they do is called ’slavery’. It’s generally frowned upon these days, I am led to believe.
105 - Tyson - for all my immense irritation with this government (and in particular this Prime Minister); for all that I could list hundreds of things I wish they’d not done, or done differently, I have to agree with you. You only have to look abroad, or back in time, to see that compared with the incompetence and corruption we could be facing, our political parties are actually pretty good.
142 - Why?
[160] Indeed. Why do we feed them at taxpayers’ expense, come to that? Or give a tuppenny damn if they stick knives into each other?
152 Also, most unusually for an extreme right wing regime, Franco’s government treated half the population (who’d supported the Republicans) as the enemy within. This contrasts with, say, the Nazis, who persecuted Jews and other minorities, but basically regarded the majority of Socialist and Communist voters as people who could be won round to supporting the regime (and had considerable success in that respect).
137- David Roe- I talked (carelessly and rather stupidly) about having 3 UK properties on this site yesterday.
Well one was a hangover from the last house price crash- we had to move, but were in negative equity. What do you do- handover the keys to the bank (be black listed), or sell and give the bank 20 grand (nearly twice my wage (net) at the time). We kept hold of it, and forgot about it.
The other was because where we live now- after we moved in we found the sound proofing unbearable in the flat over us, you could hear everything. We were going to move, but the move to our flat cost us nearly 20,000 (stamp duty, etc..)- it made more sense to use a bit of our savings to buy the place upstairs and put sound proofing in to make our lives bearable rather than spend a further 20 grand to move again.
We have a small place in Italy (sense of foreboding) which we bought to give us better access to my in laws.
Some people end up with more properties out of sheer pragmatism (sometimes without much choice) rather than greedy grasping.
Don’t know why I thought I had to explain myself but I have.
@163:
By convention, the Manor or Northstead and the Chiltern Hundreds alternate. The current Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern is Tony Blair, so the next MP to resign will go for the Manor of Northstead.
143 When Nick wins the VIP award, what does he get.
My suggestion is “Nottingham: A-Z” so that Nick can find where the principal universities in Nottingham are.
It is available on amazon at 0.01p.
152: Fascists and communists have a lot in common favouring the group over the individual, state control of industry, and not really liking religion.
169 They dislike all autonomous institutions.
Peter from Putney see post 132 Nick Robinson has posted about it too. the link is there at 132..
105. “I must say thank god we have a decent right wing party in this country. For all my sniping and left wing rhetoric one only has to look at Italy to appreciate just what a good, solid, decent, honest party the Conservative party is here.”
Tyson, are you sure you’re feeling ok today?
If Boris does move out over 1.5 - then that’s great value. Boris has dramatically improved over the last fortnight and Livingstone has failed to make any inroads whatsoever.
This is over. It’s down to voter turnout and the Johnson operation is more pumped than Arnold Schwarznegger in his body-building heyday.
Livingstone will lose.
170: Apart from internal ones like the SS.
136 . History suggest the Liberal Democrats would manage two by elections at once without too much difficulty, Leicester and Hodge Hill in June 2004, they just split their resources, send their North Midlands and Northern troops to Crewe and the rest to Henley.
Sean Fear @ 165.History doesn’t record how Franco industrially slaughtered millions of the civil population of Spain,notwithstanding there had been a Civil War.
It doesn’t record it because it didn’t happen !
This post is not an apologia for Franco, rather the other way round.
173 There was some pretty vicious infighting both between, and within, the institutions established by the Nazis.
148- URW- thanks
157. No, Labour called for a quick by-election to prevent Ken being the candidate.
There is banter in ‘the other place’ about Ken and Brian being candidates in Henley.
@175:
From Wikipedia:
“In his recent, updated history of the Spanish Civil War, Antony Beevor “reckons Franco’s ensuing ‘white terror’ claimed 200,000 lives. The ‘red terror’ had already killed 38,000.”[26] Julius Ruiz concludes that “although the figures remain disputed, a minimum of 37,843 executions were carried out in the Republican zone with a maximum of 150,000 executions (including 50,000 after the war) in Nationalist Spain.”[27] In Checas de Madrid, César Vidal comes to a nationwide total of 110,965 victims of Republican repression; 11,705 people being killed in Madrid alone.[28]”
Now, that’s not ‘millions’, but it’s not exactly small fry either.
It’s more deaths than Tony Blair caused during his reign.
176: As there was in communist Russia. The similarities just keep growing.
156.
I recall some time ago the question of whether prisoners will be entitled to vote.
An opinion poll of prisoners voting intentions is eagerly awaited and I challenge Nick P to persuade them to vote NuLabour face to face.
175 I agree, Franco didn’t slaughter millions. His regime was certainly nowhere near as bad as those of Hitler and Stalin. I’m not trying to argue the Nazis were better because they tried to win over their former political opponents - merely pointing to a contrast between the two regimes. It was more commmon for communist regimes to treat large sections of the population as the enemy within,
And I see it will be raining in London tomorrow..
Further good news for Boris.
167 - I never knew that. Very interesting.
Is it definite that Boris would resign his seat if he became Mayor?
168 Gwynfa. Nick gets a few more voters casting their eyes away from him when he canvasses !!
178 - Livingstone and Paddick to be candidates in Henley?
Oh, there’s a flying pig…!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7374994.stm
I thought everyone knew that our prisons are full of Tories.
181. Re: Prisoners.
I’d imagine that both their voting intentions, and their turnout, wouldn’t be too dissimiliar to that of normal C2/D/E category voters.
Probably generally inclined-Labour, a strong BNP showing and a not insignificant minority (20-25%) of working-class Tories.
@185:
http://www.oxfordmail.net/display.var.2067486.0.boris_says_hell_quit_as_mp.php
MC at 175.Thanks for that.I was in no way seeking to glorify Franco for not slaughtering millions.
Also to Sean Fear,I take your point but it is very peripheral at best !
185. “triggering a by-election IF he left before the next general election”. That doesn’t sound very conclusive to me.
167. He could always apply for the Manor of Tuscany. Steward and Baliff of the Three Hundred homes of Tyson.
I’d sure he’d be delighted to welcome Boris into his home.
Sorry, that should have said 190
190 - “The Tory MP later told the Oxford Mail that he would quit as MP if elected mayor, triggering a by-election if he left before the next General Election.”
He has not said he will trigger a by-election. He may just stand down as an MP at the GE.
178- No, Labour called for a quick by-election to prevent Ken being the candidate.
Alan J- where did you get this from?
Sometimes on pbCOM you pick up the most intriguing bits of political information.
<<<<<>>>
Shouldn’t we have the results by now? Where’s Harry Phibbs? Where’s Don - I can’t stand the tension!
187. I did say it was ‘banter’.
EVERYONE STAND BACK! POLITICAL CAPITAL’S GONNA BLOW!
197 - thet should have read ” YOUGOV - THE LAST MAYORAL POLL”
Only an hour to go and there’s barely been a mention of today’s PMQs.
Am I right in thinking that Ladbrokes have scrapped their 1st Question market after taking a right old hammering last week? They don’t like it up ‘em.
197 I’d have thought the Yougov poll would come out tomorrow.
202 - Can you publish polls on election day?
201, if I were Cameron I’d ask about the indecent haste of the C&N by-election, and the fradulent opportunities afforded by postal voting. It’d make Brown look shifty.
196. “where did you get this from?”
I made it up. D’ uh!
201) Its hard being Lads PfP - they put up innovative markets and take a hammering from us lot… I’m not sure why they bother - the markets need active management.
So had Greg Dyke run as a LD / Tory candidate, would he bet about to win?
201 nobody is sure the bottler will turn up….. he might have a diary clash and be absent. not that anyone will be listening to his lies anyway……..
If it rains like this in London tomorrow, polling could be in single figures.
199. ” YOUGOV - THE LAST MAYORAL POLL”
I was gonna do a spoof of the results, but thought better of it
Didn’t want to get banned by Mike!!
It will probably show a *slightly* lower Boris lead (I’d EXPECT) but not significantly.
204 Yep, fraudulent voting would be my pick. This government appears singularly unconcerned by what is happening.
107. I never said the Tories would win Ealing Southall, either. I always though Cameron and the Conservative team was stupid to talk up their chances when it was never going to happen.
YouGovs final Mayoral poll will be tomorrow.
202) Sean Fear - you are right of course
I can calm down now. Wells called it a “morning of poll” effort. I think I got confused thinking they would be subject to a blackout on polling day itself. Ho hum.
211. No, Brown would be fully armed with chapter-and-verse on the Swansea case.
The last Yougov poll ought to be pretty accurate. Given that quite a lot of people on their panel will have voted by post already, it will be partially an exit poll.
206 I agree, Ladbrokes have at least been making a real effort over recent weeks, which is more than can be said of, say, Betfair, who aren’t even exposed to financial risk.
207. IMHO Dyke would be a weak candidate. I heard him give a lecture last year and was distinctly unimpressed. He is clearly a good motivator, but his understanding of politics hasn’t progressed beyond what he picked up as an undergraduate at York University, plus a visceral sense of being betrayed by the Blair-Brown Labour Party. I don’t think he has any real vision for where this country should be heading.
Perhaps Dave should attempt to bring the entire house down by asking a question, straight-faced of course, about recent tractor production within the UK.
206 / 214 - excepting the very biggest markets, politics is mostly a PR sideshow for bookmakers. Hence it’s relatively easy to win on it long term (even PtP manages, I understand
).
Which, in my opinion, makes it all the more surprising that certain firms are prepared to take fairly chunky stakes on esoteric markets (I’m looking at you, Sidney).
Jack W/Mirthios - don’t be silly, if we’d given prisoners a 38% rise while giving everyone else 2-3%, even the most liberal-minded public service workers would have thought we’d taken leave of our senses. As I said on the programme, there’s a perfectly good case for revamping the whole package - encourage prisoners to take proper training, give them meaningful work, pay a normal wage, and charge rent. But a one-off sudden bung to convicted criminals with no other changes is not remotely sensible, and I challenge you to find a single politician in any party who supports it.
Before people get too carried away with what movements in the betting markets might mean, I seem to remember this article appearing somewhere online just before the last YouGov opinion poll:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/04/27/could-ken-soon-be-favourite-again/
Our host’s reasoning was logical, but turned out to be misguided.
216 - to be fair to Betfair they have a lot of markets up that have basically been ignored so you can’t blame them for not adding more.
143- JackW- disgraceful. In 2 days we have had Gordon saying he is personally overruling the classification of cannabis (against best advice), and now taking responsibility for banning the increase in prisoners wages by 1.50.
This pandering to the right wing press for headlines in the week running up to the local elections is stomach churningly, appallingly piffle.
And he is picking on the weakest groups who cannot rebel.
Reminscent of his Iraq stunt. How low will Gordon go in a desperate attempt to save his politcial bacon.
Gordon is a cowardly, calculating, bully. Shame on Nick Palmer.
“As I said on the programme, there’s a perfectly good case for revamping the whole package - encourage prisoners to take proper training, give them meaningful work, pay a normal wage, and charge rent. But a one-off sudden bung to convicted criminals with no other changes is not remotely sensible”
You’ve been in power for ten years so why haven’t you implemented your suggested revamp. essentially you have opted for inaction.
220. I do have sympathy for you for being put in a position having to defend your government, however.
220. “…I challenge you to find a single politician in any party who supports it.”
Err, presumably the Right Honourable Jack Straw MP. After all, he is the one who proposed it, is he not?
@223:
OMFG.
I just agreed with a Tyson post. It is a sign of the end times.
I’ve just got Ken on, was it a smart move?
220- Nick Palmer- in the run up to an election week Gordon has taken personal, extremely populist decisions on the cannabis issue, and now prisoners.
Of course no other politcian would go against this- that is why Gordon has picked them. Weak groups with no advocates. Pure politcial populism- I doubt even Berlusconi would plunge to these dregs in such a calculating way.
Gordon is a calculating bully. This behaviour is shameful, and shame on you for trying to justify the unjustifiable.
And to think that I thought that you had integrity.
222) And how do betfair advertise those markets? - they don’t.
As an active political trader you would think they would at least send me an email or something to let me know. Markets just pop up on the left menu bar with no warning or reason. And sometimes they don’t.
220 224
I have to agree with NP
But with inflation how are prisoners going to be able to buy hard drugs.. and even soft ones - like cannabis which appear freely available in jail?
As for Making cannabis a Class B drug, I note that average sentences served for drug dealing are falling due to prison overcrowding.
The propsect of thousands of cannbis users being locked up in jail is farcical as there are no places.
I believ it’s called “gesture politics”
223
Even the Conservatives are not as stoopid as GB… no point in adding to criminal offences when the punishment means do not exist.
223. There seems to be a pattern here - Brown/Labour announce ‘reviews’ to put off making decisions and then ignore the result of the reviews anyway, doing whatever is politically expedient at the time. The Supercasino is one case that springs to mind.
229. so he has taken decisions that noone would go against, and that is unjustifiable and shameful?
222) ..continued. Shadsy has the right idea - has the sense to check in here (THE HOME OF POLITICAL BETTING IN THE UK) and tell us about markets Lads are opening. Where are Betfair? They don’t give a monkey’s.
231. I don’t think anyone would expect to go to gaol for using cannabis - surely the punishment would be a caution or fine?
@231:
So why make it a class B drug? Against the advice of government scientists and his own civil servants?
Tractors Brown: a shrivelled, foul, unprincipled little weasel-shaped husk of a man. And, eheu, our sub-prime minister.
234. if you consider the business model of betfair compared to its competitors, it is hardly surprising that they aren’t chasing after such specialised minority business.
228. No.
229. Oh, calm down Tyson - for Christ’s sake. You do get chippy don’t you? And bear grudges. Try counting to ten before you post….
Nick Palmer MP is alright. He does the best he can, given his position.
235
Penalty for Class b…possession up to 5 years..
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/drugs/drugs-law/Class-a-b-c/
@238:
The Auschwitz guards did the best they could, given their situation.
Not much of an excuse, is it?
[/Godwin]
240. You are Ken Livingstone and i claim my £5
232- Alan J- what gordon shows is a lack of any kind of integrity. Calculating, expedient, politcial posturing to try and influence the press and outmanoevre his opponents.
You can add 42 days and ID cards to Gordon’s populist box of tricks.
No integrity I am afraid.
This confirms my suspicions that Gord has lost the plot.
Nick P Kindly send the PM an internal memo as a “wake up ” call
From 24dash.com
Most candidates standing in tomorrow’s council elections, including those belonging to Labour, oppose the Government’s policy on public sector pay, which has sparked industrial action, a new report revealed today.
Research for the Public and Commercial Services union among 400 candidates in the local government and London Assembly polls showed that 85% of Labour candidates and 87% of all candidates did not believe pay rises should be capped below the rate of inflation.
The union said the study showed candidates increasingly turning their back on Government policies on pay, privatisation and public service job cuts.
Every candidate in London and 87% of those elsewhere in England and Wales said they shared the union’s concern that privatisation had gone too far.
PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka said: “These responses, coming days after a one day strike over pay by teachers, lecturers and civil and public servants, show clearly that there is no support for the Government’s policy of pegging public sector pay to below inflation even within Gordon Brown’s own party.
“Added to this is complete lack of support for the government on cutting civil and public servants and privatisation.
“These responses show Labour candidates turning their backs on key policy areas and illustrate how out of touch the government have become.
“Last week demonstrated that civil and public servants, some of whom are on the minimum wage, are prepared to take stand over below inflation pay.
“This week they have a chance to go to the ballot box and make an informed choice about the issues that affect them.”
Reductio ad absurdum, I know. But “doing the best I can, given my situation” covers any number of evils.
To use it as some kind of excuse is unacceptable.
240. I’m the first to criticise Nick Palmer! Nicks spin has regularly made me cringe in the past! But, he is always a model of civility and politeness on the site and has a good sense of humour.
Tyson can just be downright nasty sometimes. He also acts like a petulant child and throws highly personal insults to posters who write things he doesn’t like.
Frankly, a man of his age should know better.
Completely off topic, but I found out last night that, despite appearances, the delay in the issue of the child poverty statistics is NOT due to politicking.
242. You can keep ignoring me Tyson, but it won’t stop me directing posts at you.
How old are you again?
237) Political Betting might be a “specialised minority business” or it might not. They don’t know cos they don’t market it. All of Betfair’s markets used to be specialised minority markets - do you remember Flutter.com?
Mirthios - I think there is a slight distinction between slavery and community service. The principle of restorative justce is about as liberal lefty as you can get. If you have offended seriously enough to go to jail, which costs the taxpayer £30k per annum to keep you there, I don’t see that expecting you to do some work to cover the costs is unreasonable. Why we would pay people who already receive more from the taxpayer that most benefit claimants is beyond me.
Jack Peterson, for once I completely disagree with you. Dyke is a good speaker, but not in a conventional political sense. You don’t get Obama, you get Jack Welch. His politics are not that firm, and he is not ideologically driven, but those things count if you are the Foreign Secretary or the PM - the Mayor of London is essentially an Executive Officer whose job entails delivery on a massive scale.
Having run a major commerical enterprise, then one of the biggest leviathans in the public sector, done well financially with both, had workers go out on the streets in support of him, and to be a character who is fairly independent-minded politically strikes me as pretty much the perfect CV for a Mayor of London.
Casino- in the back drop of a populist facist in Rome, we have Gordon coming out with this populist nonsense. I was incensed when I heard about the prisoner thing on radio 4 this morning.
I was going to post earlier that Gordon did ok, but the prisoner thing stopped me.
And now- 143- hearing of Nick Palmer- a guy I genuinely like, a good guy, being wheeled out to defend this, just makes one feel depressed.
It does strike me as a question of integrity.
239. that may be the maximum penalty - but I would consider it a little harsh if i got caught with some for personal use and spent the next 5 years locked up!
surely that maximum is reserved for suspected dealers.
236
There is no logical reason for making cannabis Class B apart from media impact .
Imo the enetire drugs issue is full of hyocrisy and cant. If we were serious about drugs, then high profile people caught in possession of Class A drugs should go to jail to send out a message. Instead they are hardly ever even charged.
I will NOT start ranting.
@251:
Ed,
(a) Do you or do you not feel that it should be a class B drug?
(b) Do you think that Tractor Brown’s ignoring the advice from government scientists and the Home Office to appease Paul Dacre and his shower of retards at the Daily Mail was a good thing?
226/229/245: The proposal wasn’t from Jack Straw - it was an internal Prison Service recommendation, rejected by David Hanson, the mniister responsible. And just to be clear - I have no idea whether Gordon Brown was consulted in any way, nor was I asked to go on by the Government. The Today progrmame rang up at midnight last night (really!), explained the issue, asked what I personally thought, and asked if I’d come in at 740 to put my views as a Select Committee member. You’re absolutely entitled to disagree, tyson, but you’re just disagreeing with me, not Gordon.
If it cheers you at all, I expect to have a major success on another issue that I know worries you, but I ca’nt discuss that in public - email me if you like!
251
Dealing covers a much higher sentence.. see the link I posted.
and see my 252
250. Tyson - that post is fine. And very reasonably put.
But why can’t we cut out the over-emotional persnal attacks? Letting your emotions get the better of you just makes you say things you later regret - I speak from experience.
I do it only in jest, or when I’m a bit p1$$ed at night, but phrases like “shame on you” and accusing Nick of having “(no) integrity” is a little OTT, don’t you think?
252. It would probably be better to section drug users so they could be sent to rehabitation centers rather than jail. They should pass a law so that habitual drug users could be sent off and cured of their addiction.
@256:
How could a person with integrity in good faith defend Gordon Brown?
DOES NOT COMPUTE.
248. they have gone from nowhere to becoming the highest profile bookmaker out there. their business model is just a license to print money, and is pretty good for punters (in liquid markets) as well.
ladbrokes etc. are still in business purely because of their shops - in particulr, gambling addicts who frequent their shops. they are not squeezing betfair anywhere.
betfair really don’t need to add lots more novelty markets. they do need to focus on improving liquidity in some areas, and consolidating markets that haven’t taken off.
@257:
All drug users are not mentally ill. What an awful suggestion.
249. Fair point. I think you’re right that Dyke would have made a good mayor once in office. He certainly has better leadership experience than most British politicians.
But I’m not sure how he’d have coped against Ken in the campaign, especially if he was running as an independent with Con/Lib support. I think the campaign could have imploded part-way through; it’s true that Boris has managed to stay on message, but he’s had a strong party machine behind him.
247- casino- I am slow, trying always badly to multi task.
I very rarely throw insults at other posters- you sometimes, Rob last night for wishing economic calamity upon Italy so it mixes up the Euro, you again and Martin Coxall (for that sill racist joke), Tories generally though noone in particular.
I am just disappointed with Nikky P on this prisoner thing. It really does rankle.
Prisoner reform is one of the great causes- Douglas Hurd has done some great work here of late. to see Nick Palmer take this populist baton during election week. The disappointment of it all.
@262:
*sigh*
253. (a) i’m not sure, i really don’t know what difference it makes in practice. i don’t believe that the police would ever pursue users either way.
(b) using language like that makes it hard for me to give any answer that doesn’t then lead you into some more vitriol, but i guess the obvious follow-up to (a) is “i don’t know”
255. but if there is no evidence of dealing and a lot of suspicion, you might want to get them off the street for 5 years.
re 261. I have worked with Greg Dyke quite closely and he is a great guy and a great leader. The question is whether he’s a smart politician - which is something you cannot just pick up overnight.
I think one of Paddick’s problems is that he has had no experience of the rough and tumble of politics. Dyke would have probably been the same.
ES final shot?
Revealed: the real cost of Ken’s C-Charge
and
We know Ken’s attitude to spending has incurred bills such as £12 million for a space satellite and £4,750 for having Konnie Huq lend a touch of glamour to an otherwise boring press conference, but what have Londoners received for their money?
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481309-details/Revealed%3A+the+real+cost+of+Ken%27s+C-Charge/article.do
Just spotted this on Guido, could this type of cynical behaviour help Labour, or will it backfire in Crewe and Nantwich?
Labour Cynically Exploit Tributes to Gwyneth for Data Mining
257 260
The big problem with tackling drugs is the lack of resources to tackle users. Labour intensive and costly. But the alternatives are jail and/or criminal acts to feed habits.
Just reclassifying Cannabis as Category B does nothing.
I would like to see an honest debate with some the the more vapid papers and some politicians - concerned with reality and not bull.. but not a hope.
Leaglising some drugs would make sense but not to the above people.
meanwhile we’re fighting in Afghanistan and protecting the opium poppy crops for UK drug dealers - who are the biggets buyers - so we can fund the Taliban - who are the biggest sellers.
can i just say before PMQs, that Gordon bot a caning/was solid, Cameron is the new messiah/a lightweight, Clegg raised an important/irrelavant issue.
(delete as appropriate depending on your personal bias)
105 thank you Tyson, you are a credit to the left. I wish more people could be like you and see the good in their opponents. We all agree on the destination, but not the transport
256: Hang on Casino, appreciate your support, but haven’t you said people like me who support the EU Treaty are traitors, and when I asked you about it you said “if the cap fits…”? Or am I mixing you up with someone else? It’s the same sort of thing - “I disagree you with about X so you are a foul fiend”
Anyway, let’s see what PMQ brings…
254- Nick Palmer- my multi tasking, and slowness. Anyway post 262 was written before reading 254.
I must seriously apologise for the integrity and shame thing. These are both taken back and more. Casino is right on this (259- you see I do read your posts). I am intrigued by the success, and will email you later
@271:
*** PMQ Alert ***
TRACTOR PRODUCTION IS UP AGAIN FOR ANOTHER WEEK!
157. Innocent Abroad. Congratulations on resiling for the first time.
While we are having a pop at Nick Palmer, didn’t he once resile from moving the lawn, despite a perfectly reasonable request to do so from Mrs Palmer, a valued constituent?
OT, but where is Ladbrokes’ PMQ market this week? I was rarher looking forward to it!
258. To be fair, Martin, as a member (albeit very junior) of the government, Nick doesn’t have much of a choice if he wants to keep his job. After all, he is a Labour MP. It is his job to defend the indefensible!
I agree, I’ve often thought Nick to be a bit of a shameless careerist, but we know him to be that, so what purpose does throwing further insults or jibes about his integrity serve?
We know the score!
@271:
Let’s just say that most Labourmonkeys seem to consider treason to be a minor trifle.
274. Oops! Should read mowing the lawn.
270- thanks Test. Good analogy.
Nick,
excuse my ignorance but why did they call you? If you are still PPS to Malcolm Wicks, surely this is not your area of responsibility.
Oh dear, Labour really are finished. Dave is having fun with them every week.
Now sending internal Whips Office reports to the Opposition…!
GB on about his “central issues” again. Only it’s “substantial issues” this week. Variety…
@276:
I agree, I’ve often thought Nick to be a bit of a shameless careerist, but we know him to be that, so what purpose does throwing further insults or jibes about his integrity serve?
Plenty. If we are to win a general election, it’s the dirtmonkeys like Nick Palmer that have to be chewed up, spat out, demoralised and generally belittled and made to feel like the unloved political detritus fallen of the midden-heap of collapsing empire made entirely of festering political muck-muck.
Such is politics. It’s a painful business.
271. Yes, I did call you a traitor. And I recall you getting very upset about it.
But, I believe I have confined my very trenchant criticism of you to that one issue - because it involves the relinquishing of my democratic power to choose who governs me and passes laws which bind me - to a foreign body, over which I have no influence, on a more-or-less permenant basis in DEFIANCE of a manifesto promise by your party, and your good self, to offer a referendum on the issue.
This made me incredibly angry - and still does by the way - and, matched my definition of a treasonous act, so I called you a traitor.
However, that does not reflect my personal opinion of yourself as a man - which is a different issue entirely.
In any event, for the record, I never claimed I was consistent, or no hypocrit!
282 - What you mustn’t do in politics is listen to people.
Re PMQ, Cameron doing quite well here I think.
282 - “it’s the dirtmonkeys like Nick Palmer that have to be chewed up, spat out, demoralised and generally belittled”
Maybe you could find another site to do it on? It’s certainly not what this site is meant to be about. Most of us here would prefer to rise above the party politicing where possible and value the insights that Nick is brave enough to give us in his own name. The name-calling and petty trolling is annoying.
Stephen Pound. Simply a pathetic joke of a man.
apparently Cammo is a cheap salesman (handbags!)
Back on thread and away from all the crypto fascist insults and I’ll say it again that the Tories must win Crewe. How can anybody seriously think otherwise? Just consider all the massive LD and Labour byelection wins pre 97. I’m sorry, but to be a political coward and say otherwise is madness.
Does Cleggover think the Tories are still in power? He always attacks them first whenever he pops up.
Odd.
@285:
Hey, if I’m going to call out Nick Palmer for one Labour enormity or another, you can rest assured I’ll do it under my own name.
Martin Day - your wish just came true!
282. Ok.
But can we give him a little cuddle afterwards to make him feel better?
What a crowd of mighty puffers you all are! Crewe and Nantwich is not that important.
I think the Tories will win, unless Labour choose a very good candidate. But this will merely confirm Tory progress. Except amongst political anoraks like yourselves, by-elections have a momentary resonance with the public and no more.
If the Tories don’t win, likewise it won’t be a big deal. There are plenty of other more important indications that the Tories are doing well currently.
People are assuming somehow that the current political pattern has to reproduce what happened in the late 70s in the last years of the previous Labour government, when the opposition Cons won a string of by-elections. Why? the circumstances are totally different.
291 - Haha, so it did. Frightening!
Did Clegg really just try to imitate Kinnock? Dear me, Martin will be insufferable this afternoon.
220 Nick P. “Don’t be silly” !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To say this prisioner payment fiasco isn’t your finest momemt is like saying that Nick Soames is suffering from malnutrition !!
No increase in 10 years Nick !!!! …. 10 years. Perhaps if MPs’ pay and allowances and John Lewis list hadn’t been increased in over a decade we might have had some more relevant context from you. But no …. in a election week a politician takes a cheap shot and seemingly populist stance.
Oh how the ghost of Michael Howard’s term as Home Secretary is seeping into the DNA of Labour politicians. Is there no level of authoritarian rigidity that the party isn’t prepared to stoop.
Shame on you Nick …. shame.
Not watching PMQ’s but…
Cameron is brilliant.
Brown is TERRIBLE.
280- Nick is on the home office select committee. Good enough reason isn’t it?
I take it there isnt gonna be another london mayoral poll?
@288:
The Conservative Party is bad at fighting by-elections. We know this and so will want to manage expectations downward, LibLab know this, so will want to manage expectations upwards.
We all have a vested interest in making Crewe and Nantwich seem more or less important than it actually is, with good reason.
In truth, it will probably tell us next to nothing about what will happen in 2010.
286: Full respect to Pound though for standing up and saying “Can I congratulate the Leader of the Opposition on the marvellous job he is doing…”
Did he not realise he’d be cheered to the rafters by the Tories at that precise point?
question on fox hunting…… that shows how low they have sunk. pathetic
“hiring taxis to scuttle round a city handing out redundancy notices to its workers!”
Clegg is a twerp.
260. I am.
It’s just one comedy of errors after another for Labour.
Backbench Tory manages to skewer both GB and the next Labour MP on the list in one question.
@304:
WE KNOW.
296- JackW- I think we are of like mind on this one (see 229), although I do believe Nick’s post at 254.
Why is it that old Tories suddenly get all compassionate about prisoners? Rather fetching really.
And I am convinced you are very well aquainted with my downstairs neighbour in a 1970’s past life.
298 - that’s why I asked Tyson, I don’t follow individual MPs caqreers that closely, even the Sainted Nick’s
so after looking at the They Work For You website and seeing nothing there I thought it easier just to ask.
Thanks for the info.
299. Aren’t there two more Mayoral polls due tonight/tomorrow morning?
One YouGov, One MORI?
Wonder what they’ll show..
Someone should point out to Clegg that the reason for all those post office closures he is complaining about is because of his wonderful EU rules.
The guy is a moron.
306. Martin - Nick Palmer MP.
Would you?
This is a dismal performance from Brown. The stuttering oaf appears to be losing it.
@311:
Would I bollocks.
“i knew nothing of these loans” what a total liar. and he wonders why not one person in the country believes a word he says. pathetic.
What, so you’d just do the bollocks?
Think he might be hoping for a bit more than that…
To all you lefties spinning like crazy that Crewe is a must win for Cameron or its all over..you do realise that you are leaving yourselves very little room for manouveure if they do actually win I am. The demographics and incumbency factors make this a very special case, the Conservatives have a great chance of winning but all of this ramping nonsense about a constituency very low down on the list that the Conservatives need to win to form a majority is a little unedifying..still if it makes you feel better in these difficult times then knock yourselves out.
Gordon is having a nightmare. Stammering even on the planted questions.
I have to admit Cleggover hasn’t reached the dizzy heights of obama today. He has a bit of a gruff, staccato, shouty voice which sounds rather off putting.
305.If it was a comedy, they would be getting the ratings surge they can only dream about in the polls for successfully making us laugh/cringe at the same time.
Its getting so bad that you don’t think that Brown is making mistakes, but rather planning them!
282) I think its a bit off calling other posters names and attacking them. Just unecessary.
309 There’s a Yougov due tomorrow. MORI aren’t doing an ordinary poll tomorrow - but it’s possible they may be doing an exit poll.
313. David Milliband MP?
Bit of gossip… I know *TWO* Tory MPs who’ve admitted to me (privately) that they would!
No takers for the Rocking Horse so far though..
tomorrow? Jeez that is late!
mmmmmmmmr mmrr speaker….i am a tawdry liar…..
I am surprised. I didn’t know you were allowed to release opinion polls on the day of the vote.
@322:
After where that rocking horse has been, I’m not surprised.
David Milliband’s wonky mouth is offputting.
261/265 Mike, did you work with Dyke at the BBC or when you were at York? I agree he wouldn’t have been quite as comfortable taking on Ken as Boris, but I think he’d get through a campaign better than Paddick.
I mentioned yesteraday a 2004 YouGov poll that had Dyke and Richard Branson as two people Londoners suggested when not prompted, along with Rudy Giuliani. I think all three would be quite interesting choices to follow Boris, if he wins tomorrow. London needs a character who is good at running things, and all three have proven themselves in one way or another, though at the cost of being intensely hated. Sir Terry Leahy might be another interesting choice of candidate.
259 - Of the UK adult popuation, 76% gamble (including the Lottery), and 48% gamble if you exclude the lottery. Only 6% of the adult population (9% men, 3% women) have gambled online. The domination of Ladbrokes, Gala Coral, and Will Hill will only be extended when the Tote properties are sold. Betfair are the big cheese online, but compared to the high-street franchises, they are not yet a giant, although I think they have a great business model and fantastic software, and the customer gets a good deal.
I remember a great conversation with David Kendrick asking whether it is in the interests of the high-street firms’ (periodically Private Equity) ownership to move gamblers online. The firms would get the benefit of slashing overheads and costs, but in the process would see ’smarter-acting’ gamblers who were able to compare prices, which would limit the profitability of the Drop before costs. The loyalty would also be destroyed (if you go into a local shop you stay there - if you are online, you visit everyone in turn).
307 Tyson. The mark of our civilised society is how we treat people such as prisioners. IMO firm but fair.
Nick’s surrogate spinning for spineless junior Home Office ministers is cringeworthy in extremis. I’d rather he resign as PPS, tell the Home Office to do the right thing and stand for principle and not parody.
It seems every politician has their price. It’s a shame that for Nick it was £1.50.
309) CR - there’s no Mori poll to come. Only a yougov one left.
So, the 2 most recent polls for gamblers to draw from are both yougov. I expect Boris’s price to fall to at least the 1.3 Mike spoke of, if not 1.2 before the result as there will be no recent poll to “counter” yougov’s 2.
328 jack w . post of the day.
Is there anyone who thought Gordon won PMQ’s. I thought he was truly appalling, trying to defend the indefensible. I wonder if 42 days is his last stand at the Alamo?? If 42 days doesnt get through, his authority as PM will be shot to pieces. If he does a u turn.. ditto.
331 he just needs to pay nick p 1.75 to get it through. do we really have two years of this shite to endure?
326. **Shame on Casino** **Shame on Casino** **Shame on Casino**
I’ve got a bit of a thing for Ruth Kelly… GULP!
Her voice puts me off, but I reckon she’d be great
Anyway, Labour females are like that. Particulary the pious, socialist ones..
They love Tory men
325. Might be wrong, but I seem to remember a YouGov poll on GE day 2005.
329 - What’s the current Boris price on Bfair?
Baroness Jay and Maguire from the Mirror in danger of disappearing up Gordo’s proverbial.
333. You are clinically insane.
@333:
You have a thing for that female-to-male transexual look?
328 - No Jack you’re just wrong on this. There is a perfectly principled stand that says that prisoners should not be paid at all given that they recieve £30k a year in food and lodgings, and yet aren’t doing work that is worthy of that sum.
Overriding a pay rise for electoral reasons is craven, and that can be condemned, but describing Nick as unprincipled because he doesn’t want to give violent offenders a bigger pay rise than teachers and nurses is not out of order.
We are civilised in that prisoners get excercise, food, beds, and a roof over their heads. The extras (pay, pool tables, sky tv) are bonuses, and it is not uncivilised to refuse to extend those.
Cameron should’ve gone on fradulent postal votes. If only he’d listened to me:p
On the issue he won, but he should’ve asked his 6th question as 5th, so he could get a riposte to Brown’s ’shallow salesman’ spiel.
Better from Brown. But it’s hard to assess, like judging a dyslexic Chinaman’s command of Latin.
Clegg stays true to his mission to lead the Lib Dems into a period of unparalleled irrelevance.
I have a strange urge to rush across the playing fields to Nick Palmer’s defense, as his schoolbooks are thrown into the river and his neatly pressed necktie is ripped from his collar.
I shall resile.
But here’s something totally offtopic to distract everyone, before tomorrow’s excitement:
http://www.travbuddy.com/world-travel-map
Quite fun. Apparently I have visited 35% of the world’s countries. Not bad.
337. Although having said that, I am the man who wrote this:
http://orangebyname.blogspot.com/search/label/Sarah%20Teather
334. There is no prohibition of opinion polls on election day. publication of exit polls is embargoed until the real voiong ends.
336. I wish they would!
;o)
337/338 - C’mon guys?! She’s only late 30s and since she grew her hair long, she looks alright!
Besides, I find her rather…er.. sweet! Anyway, there’s always the “power” thing to boot..
(maybe I should stop now?)
@342:
Julian Loves Shrek!
345. There’s no accounting for taste…..
345, you’ve gone completely mad.
328- JackW- I have done some work in prisons, and they are the oddest of places to be in. Douglas Hurd, a fantastic home secretary by the way, has become one of the great latter day prison reformers.
It would have been nice to see Michael Howard affected the same way.
Get the point on the neighbour- no go area
While I’ve been no ally of Tyson or Jack W, I must say that they are spot on with their analyses of this prisoner payment malarkey. I was once a fully subscribed member of the hang-em-flog-em brigade, but experienced a Damascene conversion on this issue after hearing an after-dinner speech by a prison chaplain. He explained in compelling terms why prisoners are the real victims and gave a moving example of an inmate who, in his childhood, was beaten by his father every day with a wire rope! For Mr Palmer to conflate what is essentially an upping of pocket money by 50 bob with ‘a pay rise of 38%’ is preposterous and unbecoming. Alas: yet another wretched attempt by Brown to gain plaudits from the Gutter Press. Shoddy, opportunistic and embarrassing, it also reveals that the chap has learnt nothing from the 10p tax fiasco.
I note Stuart Dickson is very quiet about this YouGov Poll in the Telegraph today:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/1912478/Support-for-Scottish-independence-slumps.html
338. Ronaldo does!
342. I couldn’t understand most of that post, but she looks like a Moomin and is shorter than my third leg!!
What exactly would you do with the woman?!
Caroline Flint I could understand but Ruth “Ned” Kelly?
OT. For any nervous Boris backers wishing to hedge against a Ken victory, rather than now backing Ken to win at around 2/1, the 7/4 Hills are offering for Ken to win 2nd preference votes looks interesting for adventurous punters, because I believe Ken still has a good chance to win this category even if he loses overall by quite a large margin, and will almost certainly win this category if he is to win overall.
The last YouGov poll (Boris +11 on 1st prefs) showed Paddick supporters breaking 39-30 to Ken on 2nd prefs and I think their likely respective 2nd pref gains from other switchers, mostly BNP/Green, would net off.
The only reason that Boris is ahead at all at 15% in the 2nd pref voting intention poll versus Ken at 14% is because a larger proportion of his 1st pref voters seem to think they can also vote for him as 2nd pref as well!
http://tinyurl.com/6ajbao
Obviously this is not without risk as you would lose twice over if Ken won overall and Boris led on 2nd prefs, but I think a double payout scenario is more likely.
339. Making people work and not paying them is slavery. We don’t do that. Making people work and not giving them more than food and lodging is indentured work and also slavery. We don’t do that either.
This announcement is nothing but appealing to people’s base insticts.
Speaking of appealing to Daily Mail reader’s prejudice, wasn’t it lovely for Gordon to regrade cannabis in the face of all the evidence and further remove people’s liberty to please Daily Mail readers. I suspect they’re all so pleased they’ll vote conservative to thank him.
353. As opposed to 6ft leggy blonde Ruth Kelly…
345 - how anyone could go for Kelly from the Labour ranks when Flinty is an option is beyond me.
As I’ve said before, if Flint became Labour leader, I’d be signed up and singing the Red Flag like a shot…
335)
Mayoral Election 2008 - current prices;
Boris Johnson (£2,495.95) 1.49 (£140) 1.5 (£36)
Ken Livingstone ((£4,258.51)) 3.0 (£72) 3.15 (£132)
Brian Paddick ((£4,005.09)) 200.0 (£24) 290.0 (£10)
Any Other Candidate (£836.76) 870.0 (£2) Offer
@351:
Though, support for fiscal independence is running at an all-time high.
We may soon end up in a situation where the Alex-and-Annabel show conspires to produce a de facto independent Scotland in all but name.
333/347/348.
I don’t want to marry the gal guys, just give her a good seeing to!
I get all excitable around election-time…. WHIPPISH! DOWN BOY!!
Just read a brilliant and devastating critique of the government’s latest legislation:
http://tinyurl.com/5wqo7z
One from the left in wee Gordon’s homeland is not happy!
(this is not for the faint hearted and those of a gentile disposition may not appreciate the description of the Prime Minister and his predecessor)
http://tinyurl.com/6hclf9
Whilst I am understanding of the author’s plight I’m not sure Gordon is that useful!
339 Morus. If you want our prisons to revert to the eighteenth century or some of the modern rancid festering holes as in Russia, then that’s up to you. I don’t, Britain is beter than that.
There is no moral or practical reason for the Home Office decision save they continue to run scared of the tabloid press just shy of an election.
The reason why this government is failing is that they lack spine, leadership and direction. Difficult decisions are the privilege of governing, they should not lift up their skirts and run at the first sight of a poor headline. We deserve better.
Thanks, Tyson, not to worry, and thanks to Casino for his nuanced view! We’ll have to agree to disagree, Jack W, but there’s no careerism involved (come on, I’ve been an unpaid PPS for most of 11 years, what career?) - I simply do disagree with you on the issue.
To reploy indirectly to the challenge about PMQ above: I was watching PMQ on BBC2 today, as I had something I needed to finish before a 1pm meeting, and apart from the Tory spokesman most of the commentators and the majority of the emails felt that Brown had had a good day and Cameron’s tactics were a bit puzzling. I won’t bother to give my own view but you can guess!
O/T: BACK TO THE LONDON MAYORAL RACE
Mike, what is your opinion on this, just taken from the Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1913772/Boris-Johnson-and-Ken-Livingstone-target-second-choice-votes.html
“Meanwhile, Mr Livingstone has submitted a formal complaint to the Market Research Foundation over a series of opinion polls by YouGov, including one due to appear on the morning of polling day itself, which give Mr Johnson double digit leads.
The mayor’s campaign say YouGov’s methodology is doubtful as it uses online polling, and complain that publication of the poll could skew the outcome of the contest”.
Hmm. So the pb.com collective opinion is that Flint succeeding Brown would see a very positive response from male swingometers.
Regarding prisoners: depriving someone of freedom is ordinarily a crime, but isn’t with prisoners. Obviously you can’t have licence to do anything but free citizens they are not.
356. Not indentured work, unfree labour.
Just going back to the States and the Primaries.
Obama needs 295 to reach the 2025 figure.
Assuming he picks up say 170 delegates in the remaining contests he then needs 125. If Florida and Michigan are included then he would get a minmum of 60 out of Florida and and minimum of 59 from Michigan (the latest proposal from there). That mean he only needs less than 10 Super Delegates to make 2025. Is my Maths right?
Makes one wonder what the shouting is all about!!!
339 Morus, can you tell us how the figure of 30k for prisoner’s food and lodgings has been arrived at?
For comparison, Eton College offers
“All inmates have own study bedroom. Houses, of approximately 50, same as competitive houses. Resident qualified nurses and doctors. Meals formal in some houses; central dining room self-service for remainder (but in defined house areas). Pupils can provide and cook own food within limits. 1 major exeat per term (week in autumn term, long weekend in other 2 terms) plus other weekend exeats. Visits to local town allowed.”
and at a substantially cheaper cost (22k)!!!
fees and lodgings for a boarder at Eton are 25k.
@366:
I imagine Yougov will find it very helpful evidence in their various libel lawsuits against Livingstone and his shills in the leftie commentariat.
363: Nice. I admire the frankness of the piece.
But the way things are going for Labour, I suspect it won’t be long before the front page in the Sunday Times one day reads “Ex-Minister: Brown is a ****”…
365 You mean “most of the other commentators” like Kevin Maguire and Margaret Jay? Hardly objective are they, Nick?
Surprisngly low key PMQ’s. I think Cameron knows Labour are going to get a hiding tomorrow whatever he ask’s today, so he decided to lay the ground work for Browns next disaster.
Thought Brown was a bit better - Not so much bellowing - But a bit better is still very poor.
Clegg - Why does he keep shouting and having a go at the Tories? He seems a bit odd?
New thread - Will this help Ken get his vote out?
366. ““Meanwhile, Mr Livingstone has submitted a formal complaint to the Market Research Foundation over a series of opinion polls by YouGov, including one due to appear on the morning of polling day itself, which give Mr Johnson double digit leads.”
THAT means that someone has seen the YouGov poll for tomorrow and Johnson has AT LEAST a 10% 1st preference lead, even with 36 hours to go.
So, there has been no contraction of Boris Johnson lead in the last few days.
That makes the 1.5 on Betfair Uber-UBER-value. Get it while it’s hot!
This is over.
367: “So the pb.com collective opinion is that Flint succeeding Brown would see a very positive response from male swingometers”
The mere thought of it has already elicited a favourable response with my own swingometer…
370 - Dont Etonians get out (on good behaviour) for holidays? And presumably they dont need warders to patrol the school to keep them all in.
OT:
Interesting report into immigration, apparently 50% of those that have arrived have already left.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/30/immigrationpolicy.immigrationandpublicservices?gusrc=rss&feed=uknews
flint looks like a pikey with her gap teeth. lucky heather anyone?
352 Is that the Ronaldo of AC/DC Milan fame?
Wee Dougie Alexander’s face was a picture. The lad looks terrible sickly and chronically depressed. Poor wee timorous beastie’s clearly not up to this politics lark, particularly when it all starts going t/ts up.
380 She talks and acts like a pikey too. Nasty, talentless, piece of work, that Flint one.
370. this is likely to be the reasoning of the conservative front bench. but i’m not sure the security is quite as tight at famous public schools as it is for potentially violent criminals.
Dave@369: 2025 is half the total number of delegates, plus one. If Florida and/or Michigan get seated that number will go up. Assuming the superdelegates don’t break overwhelmingly for Clinton, he would still win comfortably, though.
370 Teachers are much more highly paid than security guards.
My point is: can Morus’ figure of 30k be right? Is it even reasonable?
Of course, very violent criminals need costly high security, but they are very rare.
Edmund, many thanks, so with Michigan and Florida the total required becomes over 2,400. that makes sense, explains it all.
Many thanks
No it doesn’t, half the delegate count means you need about 2,180. with Florida and Michigan, yes?
Gosh, let’s get back to first past the post!!!!
Thanks Morus for the tip on FL/MI. Clear as mud!
wrt byelections
Parliamentary by-election results are perhaps the best indicators of future general election performance.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/byelections.jpg
Labour has been in power for 11 years. It is a stark fact that during this time, the principal opposition Conservative party has failed to register a single by-election gain, the longest such hiatus by far in recorded electoral history. Moreover, it is hard to find a more universally dismal set of results ever to be recorded by an opposition party.
Leader:HAGUE
Beckenham by-election, 1997 - Conservatives narrowly hang on to seat after member resigns amid scandal. -
Winchester by-election, 1997 - Conservatives turn a 2-vote deficit into a 22,000-vote deficit after appealing original result. -
Romsey by-election, 2000 - Conservatives lose a seat while in opposition for only the second time in 70+ years. –
Leader:IDS
Ipswich by-election, 2001 - Conservatives fail to gain a seat they have held in recent memory. They lose votes, rather than gain. –
Leader:HOWARD
Leicester South by-election, 2004 - Conservatives fail to gain a seat they have held in recent memory. They drop to third place. -
Hartlepool by-election, 2004 - Conservatives plunge from second place to fourth place for only the second time in history (and for the first time when in opposition). -
Cheadle by-election, 2005 - Conservatives fail to regain a seat they lost by only 33-votes four years previously. –
Leader:CAMERON
Blaenau Gwent by-election, 2006 - Conservatives finish in fifth-place for the first time in history. -
Bromley and Chislehurst by-election, 2006 - Conservative vote plummets in own seat by largest amount in history. Seat almost lost……
Ealing Southall by-election, 2007 – After much hype and personal campaigning by Cameron the Tories remain in third place, their vote twitching up by 0.9%……
Sedgefield by-election, 2007 – In Blair’s own constituency the Tories drop to third, while the BNP gain 9%……
On Crewe & Nantwich
Labour first won the seat in 1922, but it alternated between them and the Tories until 1945, when Tory Home Sec Sir Donald Somervell lost to Labour’s Sydney Scholefield Allen. He carried on until 1974, which means the seat has only had two MPs since 1945, which is a record shared with only a handful of seats…
Just as interestingly, unlike so many seats, there has been no real shift in the balance of Lab/Con fortunes throughout that time. It has waxed an waned only a little, with no clear trend, and recently the dynamic has been moving towards the Tories.
On an even national division of the vote in a general election, we would expect Labour to win by about 13%, or just beyond the marginal range of 10%. This statistic has remained remarkably stable over the past 50 years. The Tories have often come within 5,000 votes in a general election, and actually looked like they were going to take it in the 1980s. In 1983, due to boundary changes the seat was notionally Tory, and it went to a recount, with Gwyneth holding on by 290 votes. In 1987, another nailbiter with Labour holding on by 1100, and even in 1992 the Tories were only 2,700 behind… As others have noted, probably only Gwyneth Dunwoody’s personal vote prevented a Tory gain at the height of the Thatcher years.
The Nantwich part of the constituency is classic Tory territory - a pretty market town similar to Ludlow, with many fine Tudor buildings.
In a by-election, the Tories should be winning this hands down, by about 5,000+ votes if they were on course for a majority. The Libs have always been a distant third, although over the past two election they have improved significantly to a respectable 18%.
A near miss for the Tories in this seat will simply not be good enough, to convince me that they are on course for largest party, let alone an overall majority. A 10% swing is a fair benchmark, meaning they’d take it by about 1,700 votes.
That would be just enough to convince me the Tories are on course for largest party in a hung parliament. Quite a modest task I have set the Tories, considering that between 1966-70 and 1974-79 they were obtaining 20%+ swings, gaining Labour strongholds like Ashfield, Oldham, Workington, Walthamstow, etc., when the overall electoral mountain they had to climb then was far smaller than it is today…
But, if the swing is mostly to the LibDems with the Tories not significantly pushing their vote share up to above 40%, Cameron can forget it…
However, there are favourable augurs for the Tories…
Since 1997, the seat swung back to the Tories by 7.5%, compared to the national 5% swing. [1997-2005]
In Cheshire in 2005, the Tory vote rose by +1.5%, their best performance in any region in the North West (they actually fell everywhere else.)
Their 2.1% increase in C&N was in the upper quartile nationally, and in their top 10 results in the North West, 5 of which were obtained in the county of Cheshire…
In 2001 the seat was in the top 25 best Tory increases in vote share in the country. [+3.5%]
So they have a favourable wind behind them, even before Cameron became leader….
The seat has had only two MPs in 63 years, and has always been just beyond marginal status. The Libs have never got beyond 18% here, even in 1983. If “time for a change” doesn’t cut it in Crewe and Nantwich, what hope for the Tories anywhere?
There can be no excuses for failure…
My swing benchmarks for the Tories are:
Less than 5%: disastrous, Labour are probably on course for a small overall majority next time, and the opinion polls are not telling a true story.
5%-10%: Encouranging, but the Tories should be doing better still. A hung parliament with Labour the largest party is most likely.
10%-15%: Very good- a hung parliament with the Tories as largest party is most likely.
Greater than 15%: Excellent- the Tories probably are on course for an overall majority.
Tory by-election triumphs from yesteryear….
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/merton.jpg
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/ilford.jpg
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/ashfield.jpg
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/stechford.jpg
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/walsall.jpg
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/oldham.jpg
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/walthamstow.jpg
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/acton.jpg
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/meriden.jpg
http://www.opinion-tracker.co.uk
Ken’s mood swing. A bargain at 2/1
Opinion Tracker monitors what the general public are saying about different issues around the net (across forums, blogs, social networks etc.), and at the moment they’ve picked the London Mayoral elections to track.
The results are pretty interesting, as they provide a guide to the underlying mood of people towards the candidates, as well as a sense of how much buzz they’re generating online and the kinds of conversations that are being had online about them.
The Mayoral Election results delivered by Opinion Tracker for the last week show that Boris Johnson has created the most “buzz” with a buzz metric of 43, followed by Ken Livingstone on 19.3, Sian Berry on 10.1 and Brian Paddick on 6.
The most significant mover this week in our “mood index” has been Ken, who’s up 42% from -15 to -8.7. This swing in positive sentiment towards Ken is matched in recent election Polls, which have shown an increase in support for Ken.
There’s also some quite interesting trends emerging online, such as “Tube-stepping” - a new form of door-stepping from so-called citizen journalists.
386 - Gwynfa - The £30k figure is one I had read in a newspaper and remembered. If I can find a reference I will.
Not that surprised that it is significantly more than Eton. Kids on Holiday for 12 weeks of the year, teachers who are paid little if they are housed by the school, endowments that reduce fees to £25k pa whereas the cost could be higher. Also Eton doesn’t need highly expensive security equipment, or costly legal and medical facilities (mental health, parole hearings etc).
As I say, need to check the figure, but not at all surprised that it is higher than Eton.
I’ve just found this Parliamentary answer from October 29th, 2007.
Prisoners: Per Capita Costs
John Battle: To ask the Secretary of State for Justice what the average cost per week was of keeping a prisoner in (a) HMP Armley Prison and (b) all prisons in England and Wales in the latest period for which figures are available. [159852]
Mr. Hanson: Costs for individual prisons are published in the annual report and accounts for HM Prison Service (HMPS). For 2005-06 the cost per prisoner week at HMP Leeds (Armley) is £422; the average for prisons in the same category (male local) is £480 and for all HMPS prisons £518. The figures published in the HMPS accounts are based on direct resource expenditure and do not include all costs related to prisons such as private prisons, property costs, IT and prisoner escort services. Including these gives an overall average cost per prisoner week of £698.
For 2006-07 the cost per prisoner week at HMP Leeds is £449; the average for prisons in the same category (male local) is £485 and for all HMPS prisons £513. An overall average for 2006-07 is not yet available.
So £513-18 per week average across all prisons (excluding prisoner export and indirect costs) would be £26,676-£26,936 per annum.
If you include the movement and indirect costs, at £698 per week, the annual cost comes to £36,296.
In Northern Ireland the annual cost per prisoner is almost £90,000 per annum
To respond to G and Jack W - I am at a loss as to how you can compare restorative justice (unpaid work as punishment, such as Community Service) to slavery. It is unbelievably facile to compare forcing a graffiti artist to clean up graffiti or pick up litter with the treatment of slaves, be they in the Cottonfields of the deep South or young Eastern European women in the brothels of London and Amsterdam.
I am not a flog’em-and-hang’em sort - I believe deeply in rehabilitation and re-entry into society, and I don’t see that that is contradictory with a refusal to accept the merit in giving prisoners ‘pocket money’ or a ‘wage’ for their work. I am suggesting spartan conditions as realised by Benedictine monks - salvation (moral and legal) through the absence of worldly luxuries and the improvement of the self through hard work in itself (ie not for reward).
If you commit a serious offence, worthy of jail time, you have caused extreme wrong, and owe society a debt for your crime. Your work should act as a penance in that respect.
Beyond that, you are taking between £25k and £90k out of the taxpayers’ purse to ensure that you are housed, fed, given medical and legal care, and kept secure.
I’ll offer a comprimise - if prisoners are working to the market value of more than they are costing the taxpayer per year, then pay them the difference (and even then I am not convinced), but if for committing a violent crime guarentees the perpetrator not only the full gamet of basic provisions, but pocket money for luxuries like tobacco as well, all for the sake of low value work, then we have built an absurd criminal justice system.
I keep thinking that Crooo & Nantwich will be a three-way marginal. I also keep thinking that the Conservative will probably be third.
Since this thread is about the C&N byelection why is it full of the London Mayoral, American primaries, PMQs, Italian/Spanish fascism etc etc
Can we not keep to the point?