Could Bill be trying to sabotage Hillary’s bid?
February 12th, 2008
While we wait for the results - check out this…
One of the most intriguing pieces that I’ve read in recent days has been this article from the Agitator blog suggesting that Bill Clinton is trying to stop Hillary becoming president.
The post opens with a conversation the writer had with an activist about Bill Clinton’s comments about Jesse Jackson in the aftermath of the South Carolina primary. This act, more than just about anything else, has alienated the African American community. So why did Clinton do it?
The piece goes on“….So here’s a crazy theory that occurred to me the other day, and that gets more plausible the more I think about it: Clinton’s comments were calculated, but they may have been more sinister than even the activist I met knows. Clinton–perhaps subconsciously–was sabotaging his wife’s campaign..Crazy? Maybe. But bear with me, here. Clinton had to have known that marginalizing Obama wouldn’t work. He knows Obama is a talented politician, that he isn’t a demagogue like Jackson, and that he has already demonstrated that he can attract white voters in large swaths–Obama certainly didn’t win Iowa by dominating the black vote, did he? So why would Clinton do it? Well, maybe he doesn’t want his wife to be president….”
The full article is well worth reading - make of it what you will.
In the betting Obama has now tightened further to 0.44/1.
MessageSpace Advertising
WBA = LOL
Watford creme the Leicester
QPR = hahahahahaha - get back to league 4 you *
135. Nick, it’s precisely because I’m convinced Obama has genuine important policies and good judgment that I support him so much. The fuzzy inspiration thing doesn’t bother me so much, other than it meaning he is more likely to get his stuff through.
Con GAIN Potamac
Don’t think that Bill Clinton was trying to sabotage Hillary. At least not consciously.
Believe that in South Carolina, Bill was trying to do a reprise of his famous “Sister Souljah” diss during the 1992 campaign.
Problem was, it’s a new millenium and Bill’s antennae are still tuned to the 1990s.
On topic:
Socrates at 2: you might well be right - you’re closer to the action and have seen more of him than most of us here. Hope so.
PB has done it again - by reading the threads and spending a few minutes looking around I am now likely to make money from the US election - unless Hillary becomes the dem candidate and then wins the election - absolutely positively 100% no chance of that happening…….
One thing that Americans definitely do like is a winner.
Which is Obama’s big advantage and Hillary’s big problem right now.
We also like an underdog, and even though he’s winning Obama still has that one covered, except for a small but potentially very significant portion of White Democratic women.
And Americans like a fighter. Which is why it will be a HUGE mistake for her IF she funks out in Wisconsin.
WHich in turn is why I don’t think she’ll do that. Meaning that Wisconin primary one week from today is shapping up to be a real hum-dinger.
As it should be!
3 CON GAIN EVERYTHING
WBA = HAHAHAHHAHA.
WBA league 1 next season???????
5 - are you forest? hahahaha league 1 next season for 5th season hahahahaha
Mike, you really love this kind of thing when you haven’t got any real news. Course Bill is not trying to sabotage Hillary consciously or unconsciously. I just think that Bill is a)better at campaigning for himself and b) not really sure of how to deal with an operator is as good as he was.
Ave It me old mucker at 1. Being an Arsenal fan for the last (eh..hem) 32 years, I know how you feel right now - but in a big boys’ league
A politician—even one as good as Bill—-is either careless, or machiavellian.
Careless nearly every time.
Re: Atlantic Monthly piece on travails of Hillary Clinton Campaign, flagged in previous thred by Mike S
“Hillaryland” certainly seems a lot like “NumberTenLand” under both Tony & Gordo.
Hillary STILL keeping her Tax returns secret! WHY???
Clinton not ready to release tax returns
By BETH FOUHY, Associated Press Writer
Tue Feb 12, 1:35 AM ET
Resisting calls from Barack Obama to release her income tax returns, Hillary Rodham Clinton said Monday she would only do so if she secures the Democratic presidential nomination and contended her rival had been less than candid about his relationship with major campaign contributors.
In a televised interview Monday with Politico.com and local television station WJLA, Sen. Clinton said her financial holdings had been disclosed in her Senate ethics filings and that she had liquidated all her assets when she became a presidential candidate so her investments would not present a conflict of interest.
After the former first lady acknowledged she had lent her campaign $5 million in personal funds, Sen. Obama suggested she release her tax records as he has done to give voters a better accounting of where her money comes from.
The Clintons have become wealthy since leaving the White House in 2001, largely through Bill Clinton’s consulting and speaking fees and the couple’s lucrative book deals.
Reposted (Mike you’re purpusefully trying to stifle me - twice in one day!!)
65. Ukpaul, I agree that you should look dispassionately. And that dispassionate analysis should tell you that to the great, uneducated American public, McCain is THE great outsider maverick in exactly the manner of Roosevelt - Teddy that is. The American narrative loves his type: Western rather than Northern or Southern; the reformer conservative rather than the liberal revolutionary; libertarian rather than statist or doctrinaire “big business”. McCain’s only (albeit significant) problem is his age. All else being equal he would be run away with this election as the embodiment of Obama’s haut-vacuous slogan of “Change”.
Again, this evening, the Betfair Democratic markets for each of the three contests concerned, show latest matched odds for Obama of 1.02/1 and 1.03/1, strongly suggesting that there are no pleasant surprises in prospect for Hillary.
New PPP for North Carolina. Fieldwork 11 Feb.
Obama 50% Clinton 40%.
McCain 45% Huckabee 40%.
Perhaps his subconscious is telling him he can’t be trusted to wander the halls of the White House again with time on his hands… and cigars in his pocket…
re 85 previous thread - indeed. How on earth does Smurfit get his five kids to their private school? Does he press a button and they all materialize there, or does he drive them along roads paid with from our taxes and pollute our environment? They’re scroungers the lot of them and the whingeing ones worst of the lot.
Peter from Putney, I’m sure you haven’t forgotten the primary Clinton won after being backable at 100s on Betfair approaching the midnight hour? STAY ALERT!
13 I don’t don’t know - the McCain version of the Will.i.am You Tube video doesn’t inspire quite the same way…
http://youtube.com/watch?v=3gwqEneBKUs
Does anyone know if John McCain ever made a guest walk on appearance in 24? I was just watching it, it’s series 5 about 1.30pm if anyone is minded to check! I was sure it was him.
18 I had forgotten actually, do please remind me.
20 Yes he did
Cool! With good taste like that he should definately be President..
Just running with the idea that Bill might do something like sabotage his wife’s campaign deliberately, the question would be why?
To my mind there are only three choices: ego, protection and cold-blooded calculation.
It is possible that he could see Hillary being an outstanding president, and overshadowing his own achievements in office, and doesn’t want the reputation of not even being the best president in his family. It could be that he knows just how hard the office of president is, doesn’t really think that Hillary is up to the job and will see her reputation ruined. Or it could be that he thinks that loyalty aside, Obama is actually the better bet for the Democrats. Or a combination. Or it’s all nonsense.
I don’t believe the first option for a moment. Apart from anything else, Bill would undoubtely share in the highlights of any Hillary presidency.
Beyond that, I could see something in both other possibilities. Leadership is lonely and tough and good though she appears to be in the Senate, does she really have what it takes to lead as a president has to? He will also remember the disasterous first two years he had in the White House - two years in which Hillary shared heavily in the failure - and would have a good reason not to wish that kind of pain on his wife. There is also an interesting question as to whether, given her policy agenda, the Senate be a better place for her anyway?
“Clinton had to have known that marginalizing Obama wouldn’t work.”
May look like a boneheaded blunder now, but at the time the general consensus seemed to be that it was a sign of the Clintons’ awesome machiavellian brilliance.
More likely it’s like Sea Shanty Irish says at [4]. The Clintons have been running a flawless, textbook campaign. For an election in 1992.
8 Ave it, I’m Forest. We will continue to be punished until Nottingham and its environs stops electing Labour MP’s.
So a couple more seasons of this, then…
25. “The Clintons have been running a flawless, textbook campaign. For an election in 1992.” - Well, that would be a lot more than they did in 1992!
9 LOL paul lloyd - hope you win the prem - cos i’m london - but enjoy more failure in europe!!!!
26 All about con gain nottingham north, south, east so 2010 then!
20 & 22 - He also had a cameo appearance in Wedding Crashers. Sadly it turned out to be one of the highlights.
I’m a fan of the cock-up explanation for most apparent political cock-ups. Conspiracy theories and Machiavellian explanations rarely stand up to scrutiny.
Recently it has been suggested that Clinton’s injection of 5 million dollars of her own money was a cunning plan to portray her as the underdog, in order to stimulate financial and electoral support. Far more likely that it actually means she has run out of money and her campaign is in trouble.
That thought crossed my mind a couple of weeks ago.
some early exit poll data
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080212/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_exit_poll_glance
shan’t stay up tonight - still suffering from ‘electoral jet lag’ from the weekend
OBAMA - can he win tonight 3-0?
If so he guarantees his nomination……….
30. I tend to agree. It’s easy for analysts to pick over the minutiae of selected comments made by busy politicians getting by on less sleep than they should have and trying to do several jobs at once, as if each was carefully considered in advance for the way in which each nuance would be received. The truth is rather more boring - they make mistakes and miscalculations.
I know this might be seen as going against my earlier post at [24], but I did put in there the option that the thinking in the quoted blog could be nonsense - and by and large I think it is, though as with Mike’s article, it’s an idea worth considering if only for amusement value.
13 - I agree that McCain is the GOPs biggest chance. I just think that the party pendulum is swinging away from them and that will hinder him when, at other times, he would be a cert.
32 - didnt realise keira knightley was so attractive!!!
33 Hardly an election without you!
Most interesting stat: one-third of today’s VA Dem primary voters say this is the 1st time they’ve ever voted in a primary.
Great news for Democrats for the fall from a traditionally low turnout state.
an article about Obama’s race - that the Gov of Penn thinks some whites not ready to back Obama - he supports Clinton
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view.bg?articleid=1073085
37 - glad my reputation continues its worldwide influence
Looks like obama has won both contests tonight*
* no inducement or encouragement to bet implied
OT..
is anyone running a book on Darling’s incumbency/weeks left?
38 he’s black! who knew?
33 - Huh? No it doesn’t. If he wins in Texas or Ohio I would agree with you but tonight is not really that important. Unless Hillary gets about 30%.
42 - hillary strugglin’ now.
Lookin’ good for obama evry’where y’all
41 - I did!
Could anyone tell me what time the polls close and when we can expect the first results in? Thanks in advance!
40. There is a betfair market in which you can bet on which quarter of which year he’ll leave office of chancellor. Not liquid though so no real value. You can however get 11/8 with paddy power on ed balls becoming the next chancellor. He was surely Brown’s first choice when he took over, but didn’t have sufficient formal ministerial experience.
45 - Midnight for Virginia, One AM for Maryland and DC.
45 - Midnight for Virginia, One AM for Maryland and DC.
42. Correct about tonight, but there are two states in between - Wisconsin and Hawaii. If Obama takes both of those as well, that really will be the nomination: I don’t see how Hillary could come back from losing three straight rounds with the diversity of states they contain. The momentum for Obama by that point would be too much for Hillary to roll back.
That said, there were some posts earlier suggesting that she was giving indications of skipping Wisconsin altogether. Can someone closer to the game than me explain what she would gain by doing so?
Everybody looks for weird explanations for simple events - its more interesting. Ockam’s razor nearly always applies. Machiavellian or a mistake? Most likely a mistake - Clinton has made plenty.
44 Odd isn’t it that a boy brought up by his white mother from Kansas, then by her white grandparents, who goes to a very good almost entirely white or asian private school is “a black”.
42 - I don’t think she is skipping Wisconsin - have a look
http://www.wisn.com/politics/15283323/detail.html
49. She seems to following into the same trap as Guliani. Ignore the states you losing in and concentrate on your “firewall”.
Re 2, Socrates, “135. Nick, it’s precisely because I’m convinced Obama has genuine important policies and good judgment that I support him so much.”
Like sending troops into Pakistan? Brilliant!
On the main article, interesting.
Comment from a staunch new lab supporter tonight.. Clinton and Obama are handing it to McCain on a plate! (Good for my book incidentally!)
51 - I agree with your sentiments - isn’t it sad that people will vote just because odf some one’s colour - on both sides - white or black. They should vote for the person and on their policies.
51 - I agree with your sentiments - isn’t it sad that people will vote just because odf some one’s colour - on both sides - white or black. They should vote for the person and on their policies.
38 - Personally think this is a process.
That is, some White voters are eager to vote for a Black President, regardless of party, ideology, personality or quality.
Others are totally against the entire notion of a Black in the Oval Office.
Most Americans, including most Blacks and other non White voters, are somewhere in the continuum between the two poles of opinion.
GOV. RENDELL may have a point, when he says that his Black GOP opponent, former football star Lynn Swann, would have done 5% better in the PA gubernatorial election had he been White.
And the Gov also has a point, when he says that in Obama’s case, his ability to draw new voters into the primary essentially cancells out the bigot vote.
Indeed, may do better than just re-even the playing field.
For when it comes to willingness to vote for a Black president, Obama is clearly shifting the fulcrum to his electoral advantage.
Hilarious thread topic Mike lol!
Now’s the time to get ready to bet on Hillary. There is a lot of sentimentality driving UK betters on here, and sentiment is a poor emotion to use in this market.
Tonight doesn’t or won’t settle anything, regardless of whether Obama takes them 3-0. This is about delegate numbers, not about sentimentality.
Like it or not too even if Obama leads into the convention the SD’s will almost certainly still back Hillary. Again, ditch the sentiment. If you think it’s unfair you should try the GOP system which is winner-takes-all per state. The ‘moral’ right guff doesn’t play in this game, so forget it.
Hillary remains a formidable betting opportunity and I’d urge those who don’t want to lose heavily to ignore the sentimentality of Mike et. al. and go with Hillary. I am about to when the price is just right. That will probably be after tonight providing she doesn’t do too well. She will then take Texas and Ohio.
Nancy Pelosi may swing Obama’s way…
“she is said by one of those close to her to be “leaning” towards Mr Obama”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3359895.ece
46. HenryG. Balls as next Chancellor at 11/8 doesn’t appeal to me at all.
He is known to be Brown’s right hand man which by association is not necessarily a good thing; he wasn’t regarded as sufficiently experienced to be appointed Chancellor at the inception of Brown’s ministry; he has gained only limited additional ministerial experience since, so is not much better qualified for the 2nd most important office of state; he has undermined his reputation for aptitude in his contributory role as one of the “young turks” who advised Brown to call the election that never was; he lacks good media and interpersonal skills and appears unpopular with the media generally.
Other than that I don’t disagree with you.
HILLARY
HILLARY
HILLARY
HILLARY
HILLARY
HILLARY
HILLARY
58. Do you really think that the SD’s will ignore the candidate with the most delegates and most state wins? There are already huge rumours that most SD’s will follow whoever won the most delegates on principle especially if Obama is looking like a clear yet slim winner (which he is)
They want to win the presidential elections and still control both houses of congress. Those chances slip away if they back the loser of the race.
52 - Acutally, Hillary’s Wisconsin schedule (1 event) looks very light compared to Barrack’s (5 events in 5 cities).
There’s much to be said for the argument that candidates or campaigns cannot break out of the tactics and presentation that won them election, while times evolve and leave them behind.
Labour is still putting out publicity in almost exactly the same styles that they were designing in 1997 and 2001 - it may have been cutting edge at the time but it isn’t now. Same (as Mike discussed a few days ago) about their attempt at the same old dividing lines: ridicule Tory plans as unaffordable by applying the most extreme, expensive/swingeing interpretation possible. That worked when people were scared of the Tories after a decade of cuts and incompetence, but it doesn’t have much impact ten years on.
The Clinton campaign is very much stuck in the past - and you can see that most simply in the fact that the campaign is run by people who won in 1992 - Clinton’s cronies - there is very little new blood at the top of the campaign. It’s entirely understandable to want people you trust absolutely, and who think like you in a campaign, but the long-term test of an effective campaigner is the ability they have to self examine themselves, to challenge their orthodoxies and keep evolving with the latest technologies/moods.
61 Ave It, are you in love?
62. Yes. They won’t be driven by that. It’s not relevant.
Thing with Bill is I simply think he has no real investment in Hillary’s campaign, as it’s nothing to do with him, most politicans have a (un)healthy amount of ego and Bill Clinton more than most IMHO and beyond the chance to waltz around the West Wing at will again i think he has little motivation or incentive in helping Hillary… sure he loves the rallies and his job as surogate but the investment just isnt there, because it isnt about him.
1 - [Football rant]You won 1-0… ok we cant even beat Watford when their down to 10 men! Jeez another season risking our first relegation to the third tier in over a 100 years![/Football rant]
60. Well in that case would 10/1 on Jack Straw appeal? He seems to have an uneasy relationship with Jacqui Smith and is worthy of a major office of state again. I totally appreciate your points about Balls, but that won’t necessarily stop Brown backing him.
65 - i prefer penny mordaunt……….
http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=people.person.page&personID=127156
60 stjohn - please take a look at my post #53 on the previous thread.
Question: Is any bookie taking bets whether or not Democratic superdelegates will collectively vote for the canidate who prevails when the pledged primary/caucus delegates are finally elected?
Because personally think they will go with the flow, unless the pleged delegate margin is exceedingly small. Just wait and see.
60 Lots of briefing against Darling for the u turns he’s had to make on capital gains and now non-Doms - looks like an inside job to me. Unfair as does anyone seriously believe his October budget preview had anything to do with him? It was clever Mr Balls and Gordon - as Gordon’s grin when the IHT announcement was made shows. Disagree on Balls chances at next Chancellor unless any of the anti-Darling briefings can be positively proved as his - Gordon’s favourite not given the job he was chosen for?
67 LOL super holloway!
You will be ok - Colchester and two other small teams going down
63 - 63 - very light indeed. Huckabee seems to be having two days of campaigning - McCain going to a dinner.
Preliminary Exit Poll Data From Fox NewsVirginia:
White voters: Clinton 51, Obama 48
Women voters: Obama 58, Cliton 42
Seniors: Obama 53, Clinton 47
Late-deciders: Clinton 52, Obama 48
Young voters: Obama 80, Clinton 20
Independents: Obama 66, Clinton 33
73 - Wish i had you faith ‘Ave it’… about our chances in Bootle if not citie’ chances of survival
Regarding the Hillary/Obama thing, whilst I would still prefer Hillary to clinch the nomination. I recognise that the way things are going that looks less likely, however I think the problem is that Obama whilst he has more potential upsides has excited such ludicrous hype that the potential for major disappointment when people come down off the ceiling and realise that he is just another politician is enormous. Plus he is massively inexeperienced, more so even than George W Bush and so the potential for a major mistake is large too. I think that a fair number of people could get 18 months into an Obama presidency and regret it bigtime.
PtP Will you be wearing your red hat at Jury’s tomorrow evening?
76 - con gain bootle (possibly)
Leicester safe. Playing derby next season. Maybe not forest.
Blackpool/Scunthorpe/colchester = *n sync #
# that’s bye bye bye
75. If those figures are close to being right, Clinton’s crashing to a massive defeat in Virginia. Can you just check the women voters stat is correct and not the other way round (even the other way round it’s not terrible for Obama).
71. The superdelegates are surely unlikely to do anything as a collective if the pledged delegates are split? Either one candidate will have already withdrawn, in which case the entire convention will swing behind the other, or the superdelegates will divide among themselves.
75. Interesting and slightly contradictory figures. Overall for Obama, but late deciders going for Clinton?
77 - I think its fair to say his inexperiance is over played, together with Richard Lugar (R-IN) he drafted one of the most important bits of legislation on nuclear proliferation of the last decade… for a junior senator only elected four years ago, he’s cramed alot in.
80 - possible inclusion of all voters - black, white etc etc.
Curious about Late-deciders: Clinton 52, Obama 48 - how many were there in that group?
77 “I think that a fair number of people could get 18 months into an Obama presidency and regret it bigtime.”
Same as with Presidents 1 thru 43?
68. HenryG. Yes that would be a much more inticing bet for me. I have quite a high regard for Jack Straw. He is head and shoulders above all other ministers in Brown’s government in terms of experience and has presided over two of the most senior offices of state at least competently. So 10/1 looks reasonable. I’m still holding a 50/1 voucher for him to be next PM so would prefer that outcome.
80 - It’s what Fox are reporting http://thepage.time.com/potomac-primary-exit-poll-data-from-fox-news/
…the vote amougst women and seniors is interesting, although i think VA’s large Black vote means that will favour Obama more than usual, the white vote (if a true reflection of the result) is positive considering that VA is a solidly southern state (although fast becoming more ameanable to Democrats with the growth of the DC’ burbs).
83. Sure, but even so - Virginia isn’t *that* black…
Anyone know what the primary electorate is for the Republicans in DC? - something like 46 voters, isn’t it!!!
Unsourced rumour from Kos:
EXIT POLLS SHOW 2:1 OBAMA LEAD OVER HILLARY IN VA AND MD, 3:1 IN DC… DEVELOPING…
66. Wanting control of the White House and Congress is not relevant! You must be joking. No one wants to back a losing horse especially if that losing horse could jeopardise their power and even their own seat.
78 No, that’s only for very special occasions, PfP.
Tis worth noting… these are just exit polls, give it a little while and we’ll have the real thing (VA polls close in 20 minutes).
88. Only 3:1 in DC - that’s poor - should be more like 8:1!
But I think we might be enjoying this night Sean - let’s just try to avoid the “ohmygod, with 0.3% of the votes in Clinton’s obviously going to win by a landslide stuff”, shall we?!!!!
85. Jack Straw is a reminiscent of people like Malcolm Rifkind and Douglas Hurd … the curse of the FCO: extreme pomposity and an inability to answer anything in less than 100, largely meaningless, words.
Don’t think he stands a prayer of becoming leader personally.
Re 84. Sea Shanti Irish “Same as with Presidents 1 thru 43?”
The word is through. Look it up. Thru is not English. (either that or spell New York the way the Serbs do, Nju Jork, which makes much more sense than “thru”)
What about FD Roosevelt? Elected 4 times, twice in war. (And a cripple)
77 - This is what I call the Blair effect. Labour came to power with massive expectations in 97 which were impossible to meet. However far Obama goes he will face the same problem. And SSI is right, every President faces it - campaigning is poetry and governing is prose - but it will be even greater. Lots of people are backing him because he is different, not the ordinary pol, is going to change the system, make sun shine all year round. If he becomes President he will have to cut deals like anyone else. I think it’s great what he is doing but the potential downside has to be recognised as well.
92 - If the exits are anything like right, the races on the Dem side should get called awfully soon after the polls close and we can all go to sleep.
92. lol. I do get a bit panicky. Emotionally labile, me.
My excuse is that I was scarred by the New Hampshire debacle. When everyone else was still blithely predicting an Obama win, I was looking at the actual early NH returns - at 1%, 5%, 10%, and they kept showing Hillary ahead.
I knew she was gonna win log before the pundits, it seemed. I don’t claim any special skill, I was just looking at the facts.
Ever since then though, yes, I have been fearful of a repeat performance.
Performance anxiety, I guess you’d call it…
88 - That’s from drudge.
I am sketching out several serpentine scenarios for the slippery superdelegates…
One is that they all go with the winner of their particular state… (hard luck Kennedy and Kerrey!)
If that happens, and the race pans out as I’ve suggested previously, Clinton’s superdelegate lead could be down to 16, or she may not even have a lead at all…
I now think the superdelegate thing is being blown out of all proportion. Obama and Clinton will probably end up with roughly the same number of SDs…
In other words, the superdelegates are not going to break decisively enough to influence the race, if it continues as expected, and Obama winds up with a 100+ lead in the regular pledged delegates….
Maryland Primary
Turns out there is a hotly contested race for Democratic congressional nomination in CD4 where woman challenger is trying to unseat Black incumbent.
This district is split between two DC suburban counties: Prince George’s which is majority Black; and Montgomery which is upscale White.
Thus both campaigns will be helping turn out Obama voters. And of course both are hoping to get some coattails from Barrack.
97 - NH shows it is right to look at the early returns. But it depends how homogenous the state is, where results are coming from. NH stayed the same all night, MO Clinton lost a solid lead at the end when St. Louis came in. So, you need to look at actual votes to check there isn’t something drastically wrong with the polls/exits.
97 “Performance anxiety, I guess you’d call it…”
You’ve been talking to that Thai girl about the election again, SeanT?
94. Not sure your grammar there qualifies you to lecture SSI on spelling! ‘Tis text lingo anyway so no need for you to be pedantic.
Re. the race issue, the US is fantastically obsessed with ethnic roots. It’s quite bizarre that many people are still defined by alleged origins dating back many hundreds of years: be that Irish-American, African-American, Hispanic-American or whatever.
There are times when I’ve been with these various groups when I’ve felt like saying: ‘for f’s sake pull yourselves together. You are the greatest nation on earth, and don’t need to find spurious identity through digging around in the past. However painful some of that history is, it’s time to move on and grow up. No nation on earth can afford to find its identity through ethnic foraging.Your identity is found through your common goal around aspiration for all. ‘ Maybe Obama is a symbol of that, afterall …?!
95. It’s not cast in stone, Kieran: Kennedy achieved virtually nothing as President (not that he had that much time to do so) - maybe in part because his win was so narrow; Johnson won a landslide and got a lot done - who’s regarded as the more successful president?
Obama’s success will depend on how big a majority he wins, and how much the Democrats advance in Congress - and with Hillary as Senate Majority Leader instead of useless Harry Reid, I suspect they might get quite a lot done without that much horse-trading.
94 - You must have concurred with my point, as your response did not address it.
some exit straws in the wind from ABC News
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4280392&page=1
goodnight
102. Oooh, back in the scissors drawer, Mrs Sharp!
SUSA polls while we are waiting:
Ohio
Clinton 56 Obama 39
McCain 50 Huckabee 36
North Carolina
Obama 50 Clinton 40
McCain 45 Huckabee 45
88: clinton = wba (meltdown)
97. Has anyone looked at the county-by-county Democratic results map for MO yet? Obama only won five counties! Unfortunately for Clinton they were the ones where everyone lived. I’m surprised the Clinton campaign hasn’t been calling for one delegate to be awarded from each county in rural states…!
54. He doesn’t want to send troops into Pakistan. He thinks, if reliable intelligence comes up on the location of Al-Qaeda camps, that the US should use targeted air strikes if Musharraf is unwilling to do so. As Al-Qaeda is a genuine and immediate threat to the United States and its people I think that is entirely legitimate. Far more sensible than this war in Iraq.
75. With the exception of the ‘late deciders’ figure, excellent results for Obama. The headlines should be shouting his winning the white Virginian vote to the rooftops. The ‘women voters’ is also stunning - that includes all the black women too, but points to no more than a narrow loss amongst white women (5 points, perhaps?). And could the late deciders have a good deal of Republican voters acting as spoilers within their ranks?
Ten minutes until polls close in Old Dominion . . . this is not a drill . . .
94 - for example, FDR. Fair to say that by mid 1935 “a fair number of people” regretted his presidency. Just nowhere near a majority.
Re 103, Richard “There are times when I’ve been with these various groups when I’ve felt like saying: ‘for f’s sake pull yourselves together. You are the greatest nation on earth,”
Ah, now there is your mistake
108 - I would be surprised if Hill was still that far ahead by March but I really struggle to see how Obama is such a shoo-in if he remains behind in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Those places have big numbers.
If Hill wins in the big early March contests there’s gonna have to be some heads knocked together or it is only helping the GOP.
110 - The MO result was a classic race for the state, just substitute Clinton for the Republican candidate (winning the sparsly populated rural counties) with Obama as the Democrat (dominating in the cities and edging it in the burbs). Although Obama has done well with rural voters elsewhere (IA, ID, NB, KS, NV, SC etc…)
113 - sorry, should read “by mid 1934″
104 - I know it’s not set in stone. The Kennedy example shows that charisma only takes you so far. It took LBJ, a completely inside the beltway pol to get the major domestic reforms through. My point is that expectation is a double edged sword. Even if the Dems have big majorities in Congress (which I hope they do) they are going to have to deal with lots of problems left by GWB. Iraq, deficits, entitlement reform etc. which will involve compromise. The danger in raising expectations very high is that when they are dashed the cynicism engendered is all that greater. I hope that doesn’t happen, but I think its worth flagging up that it might.
Sorry if old news, but this from CNN:
“Early exit polls indicate the African-American turnout in Virginia and Maryland is about the same as it was in the 2004 Democratic primaries.
According to early exit polls, African-Americans made up 29 percent of voters in the Virginia Democratic primary and 37 percent in the Maryland Democratic primary.
In 2004, African-Americans made up 33 percent of the Virginia Democratic electorate and 35 percent of Maryland’s”.
115 - operative word in your para 1 is “if”.
Re 105, Sea Shanti Irish, “94 - You must have concurred with my point, as your response did not address it.”
Good body swerve on the *cough* spelling issue!
No, not at all, I raised FDR as someone who continued to impress the electorate until he died in office after being elected IIRC 4 times.
So not all presidents have, it seems, disappointed.
88. pretty much as expected then, with Clinton doing a bit worse in VA and MD, about right in DC…
Would give Obama about a 144 pledged delegate lead as of tonight. As I forecast 6 hours ago…
Ding Dong! the Witch is Dead…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ICw2BmgE6o&feature=related
116. Yeah - I haven’t checked, and I recall she ran a lot better in the rural parts of the state (this time), but Obama’s win probably mirrors fairly similarly Claire McAskill’s win over Jim Talent in 2006 and recent Dem wins in that state (eg Carnahan).
Regarding Clinton skipping Wisconsin. Unfortunately I was the source of the rumours. I didn’t say she was skipping it, but that she is flying out to Texas so soon suggests she’s given up on it. She’s still going to token campaign, but seems like she’s panicking about Texas and wants to make sure she does well there.
121. Actually “thru” in the context SSI is acceptable in American English.
Re 111, Socrates, “He doesn’t want to send troops into Pakistan. He thinks, if reliable intelligence comes up on the location of Al-Qaeda camps, that the US should use targeted air strikes if Musharraf is unwilling to do so. As Al-Qaeda is a genuine and immediate threat to the United States and its people I think that is entirely legitimate. Far more sensible than this war in Iraq.”
You are Daggers, (as in Dagenham, two stops on from Barking),
You can’t go around carrying out air strikes on an allies territory when they are a nuclear power.
Its nuts.
End of.
121. Actually “thru” in the context SSI used it is acceptable in American English.
CNN appear to have called Va
O
B
A
M
A
Fox - Obama wins Virginia
126. You can do if the President of the country doesn’t actually oppose it, but just has to be seen to in order to stave off revolution on the streets.
MSNBC called Virginia for Obama.
Fox - McCain and Huckabee neck and neck in Virginia.
21 - ah, but you only said that “a fair number” would be disappointed. Which is per usual.
Sounds like your real meaning was, a substantial number (whatever that might be) of former supporters will be disappointed. Different kettle of fish.
Re 113 Sea Shanti Irish “94 - for example, FDR. Fair to say that by mid 1935 “a fair number of people” regretted his presidency. Just nowhere near a majority.”
FFS! If your candidate lost of course you regret the other guys presidency! FDR still held on for 4 elections!
CNN - Obama 61% in exit poll.
131. Not to mention that the strikes are on areas of the country that aren’t actually controlled by its goverment.
120. Well, actually, the operative word isn’t “if” - it’s “primary”. Is anyone seriously going to claim that Obama won’t win California if he is the general election candidate? Similarly, does anyone not think Clinton as the Democratic nominee won’t win Maryland, DC or Washington state?
It’s immaterial for the general election who wins where in the primary - at least on the Democratic side (not so sure the same is true for the Republicans as McCain has such toxic views for the GOP base that his remarkable weakness in heartland seats may carry through).
McCain - 47%
Huckabee - 41%
CNN exit poll
re 122, Rod Crosby “Ding Dong! the Witch is Dead…..”
Hooray!
If VA’s being called less than 10mins after the polls closed - then Obama has won big, perhaps very big! Those exits just might have been right in their forecasts.
132. Excellent - I’ve got 6s on Hucks there
GOP - Virginia is Winner Takes All (63 delegates) - if Huckabee has won it will cause further embarrassment.
Maryland is not Winner Takes All.
Re 125, Socrates, “121. Actually “thru” in the context SSI is acceptable in American English.”
? But obviously not ENGLISH!
That’s a big win for Obama in VA. Wasn’t that the state, of the three voting today, where Hillary was meant to have a chance? At least of coming close, and maybe sneaking a win?
She’s been crushed - if the polls are correct.
Anyone wishing to join me in buying on Spreadfair the number of states the Democrats win in November, despite Aaron’s and Mike’s words of caution on the previous thread - in the absence of any money currently available on the buy side of the board, might instead wish to consider selling the number of states the Republicans win, where the current price is 25.5. This is therefore equivalent to buying the Democrats at 24.5, compared with the 24.0 price I bought out all that was available earlier. I just feel that the more probable it becomes that Obama will become the nominee, the number of states the Democrats will win is likely to trend higher.
This is a relatively low exposure bet in terms of there being a maximum of 50 states, compared with, say, buying Aussie runs in the first innings of a test match!
70. Peter. Yes I did note your voluntary and albeit inevitable acceptance of your rightful place in the duff tipsters dunces’ corner, along with myself and PtP.
I am relieved to see the the Truth and Reconcilation Committee will be able to rely largely on the “fess up” and “it’s a fair cop”, type of evidence.
My radical proposal is to define a new and particularly heinous category of PB.com crime. The “erroneous value claim”.
There are a number of subcategories but the general underlying error is always the same. A gross misunderstanding of the actual value of the odds on offer for a particular betting outcome, made by an overly exuberant, well meaning but ultimately deeply flawed PB punter and habitue.
I propose Aaron as Chief Inquisator. I commend my proposal to the House.
Personally agree with Benedict - my spelllling is indefensible!
Virginia GOP - turnout incredibly high in the Western part of the State which is very Conservative.
Virginia exit poll:
Whites: Clinton 51, Obama 48
144 - The Clinton campaign had talked up their chances of doing respectably (which i would read as breaking 40%), certianly doing sufficently well in some congressional districts in the South and West of the state to maximise the number of delegates she might gain.
Maryland and D.C have really been seen as “beyond hope” by the Clinton campaign… if Obama is (as MSNBC is suggesting) breaking 60% in VA then he making inroads amougst Clinton base… which bodes ill for Clinton heading into WI and on into March 4th.
143. Contemporary American English is thought to be as close to Middle English as contemporary British English. Why should they have to abide by our standards, any more than we should have to have kept to Anglo-Saxon? It’s nonsense. Linguistic diversity happens and we are culturally richer for it.
145. Are they not including DC as a “state”? It isn’t of course, but it does have votes in the election. Worth clarifying pfp….
Fox Va - Obama gets 66%
145 Sorry, as well as Aaron’s concerns, it was Paul M’s words of caution coupled with the corresponding number of states states won in previous GEs (as set out in post 60 of the previous thread) to which I was referring.
Fox exit poll:
Obama 66, Clinton 33
But warning from Fox - people most excited are most likely to respond to exit poll.
Virginia:
Whites: Obama 48% Clinton 51%
Blacks: Obama 90% Clinton 10%
CNN has some actual votes in VA: Huckabee 63%, McCain 35%.
Of course, that’s only 27-15 in actual votes. Now, that’s a small precinct!
Re 131 Socrates, “126. You can do if the President of the country doesn’t actually oppose it, but just has to be seen to in order to stave off revolution on the streets.”
And if we had conducted a surgical strike on parts of New York or Boston in the 1970’s what would have had to have happened?
149. Apparently he won in virtually every demographic, apart from older white women.
White men are swinging to Obama. Important for Ohio.
I think I’m coming around to the David Herdson perspective - three strikes and she’s out. If Obama makes another clean sweep of Hawai and Wisconsin on the 19th, then that will be ten states in a row he’ll have won. Eleven wins including the VI. And I suspect he will Dems Abroad too.
Twelve wins in a row?? Clinton will have to win by ENORMOUS margins in Ohio and Tx to make up for that.
Can’t see it. But let’s wait for the, ahem, actual results…
155. F*cking hell. That’s enormous if it’s close to that.
151. I heard it said that Shakespeare would understand the American accent better than the current British accent…
146 You want Aaron, StJohn? Moses too busy?
156. Blacks: Obama 90% Clinton 10%
Lol.
Is there any point at all in continuing with MS’s strategy of selling Obama and buying Hillary?
CNN reporting Obama leading Clinton by 94 to 90 in actual votes…
Obama emerges the winner tonight in 22 states to Hillary’s 11 (excluding MI and FL, and putting NM in Clinton’s column)
22-11……..
This time next week it will be 24-11..
158. Clearly not analagous seeing that there was a state presence in parts of Boston and New York, there was not a the centre of a global terrorist group operating there, the US government would have been willing to act had there been, and it would have been the centre of a city rather than a barren mountainous land.
Seems to be a good site to watch the VA returns:
http://tinyurl.com/22g2t8
161 - My music teacher always use to say that American Blue Grass was very like English folks music from the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, so i could see their being an influence on language as well - interesting considering the varity of cultural influences within the states during the introveening three centuries.
165 - Now Clinton 743 to 714 Obama. Oh Sean….
164. That market is incredibly nervy, so if anything, waiting until about March 1st would be the best strategy. Beyond that, it will start to price in TX and OH again. I don’t see much money in that strategy, though - it’s not like Hillary is going to leap up to odds on March 5th - unless Obama quits that day.
156 Socrates
Please don’t think I’m trying to be funny but how exactly do pollsters ascertain who is white and who is black? I mean, a lot of the people I know are somewhere in-between, and after a good holiday in the South of France, even I can attract some funny looks from immigration officers.
Apparently Clinton has lost the male AND female vote in Virginia.
However, her strategist Mark Penn has said that these minor gender groups don’t count, and she is now counting on the real voters: transsexuals, katoeys, he-shes and ladyboys.
Early CNN projection has him only gaining 5 delegates over Hill in VA though.
Some results here….
http://www.politico.com/
170. Nah. Check the link at 168. Better for Obama!
173 - Sean that is beneath you!
162. PtP. Speak softly and carry a big Rod. (Not necessarily but maybe of the Crosby variety).
Aaron’s Rod for anyone who finds me too cryptic.
Re 133, Sea Shnti Irish “21 - ah, but you only said that “a fair number” would be disappointed. Which is per usual.
Sounds like your real meaning was, a substantial number (whatever that might be) of former supporters will be disappointed. Different kettle of fish. ”
Not at all.
The reality is that if you keep getting elected you are keeping people happy!
Campbell County
updated 1 minute ago
16%
reporting
Huckabee 503 95%
McCain 8 2%
Paul 5 1%
Romney 5 1%
177. Probably quite literally!
re 136 Socrates “131. Not to mention that the strikes are on areas of the country that aren’t actually controlled by its goverment.”
Trust me, that is not how it will play out in the press in Pakistan.
Obama now 20% ahead with 5% returning. A crushing victory.
It involves the interviewer quietly ticking a box! People of mixed race are classed as black here ever since the one drop rule. You might think it unfair, but such people get treated as black, with all the discrimination that goes with it, so mentally do tend to think more similarly to those with darker skin.
151. How on earth can that be substantiated - did someone ask him? May as well say Shakespeare would understand Martian better than Saturnine or Plutovian!
Happy birthday, Father Abraham…
http://z.about.com/d/godc/1/0/M/4/lincolnfh.jpg
Gobama!, my son….
Significant movements on the Intrade markets. Obama up to 73, Hillary down below 26.
That’s the lowest she’s ever been, I think.
Thanks for that guidance, Topynate (71). Best to wait and see what happens…
178 Yes indeed, I can only assume you deliberately and, if I may say so, rather viciously proposed Aaron as “Chief Inquisator” in the light of his misgivings concerning my bet, expressed in his post 62 in the previous thread.
CNN - after 4%?
Huck 49%
McCain 44%
VA Primary - Democrats
early returns show Obama winning everywhere except southwestern VA (rural with few Blacks)
182. Depends on the paper, and depends on whether Musharraf says he had agreed to it after the event. Obama’s point is that it’s too 20th century to think only in terms of state actors - there are non-state actors who are an imminent threat to the US, and the US has a right to strike at them. If possible we should work with the state government in question, but even if they are unwilling we should still be allowed to take out the threat.
Re 145 Sea Shanti Irish “Personally agree with Benedict - my spelllling is indefensible!”
Now go tell the rest of then USA
185. All to do with phonetics and linguistics apparently. They have a reasonable idea how we spoke back then, and apparently the Pilgrim Fathers carried a language time capsule with them that hasn’t changed as much as English has in this country…
I can confirm this as a Scouser….
172 PtP - you mean when gone are those milky white thighs?
174 - Err, I think you’ll find that is going to change markedly. There are over 100 delegates at stake, a twenty delegate gap might be expected.
Re 151 Socrates “Why should they have to abide by our standards, ”
Because!
185. I have also heard that American English is closer to Elizabethan English and modern British RP. Philologists and linguists and the like can tell this from rhymes and assonances used by poets of the time.
Interestingly, I’ve always detected a west country tinge to America’s drawled vowels. Does that come from the first pioneers, out of Plymouth?
And Aussies sound quite cockney to me. That must come from all the London lowlifes and criminals, Transported Down Under.
All that said I think a British RP accent is the most attractive English accent, globally. Crisp, euphonious, resonant and precise. They use it on Singapore and Hong Kong trains.
Ben Smith on Politico says Obama wins Latinos with 55%. I’m not sure which state, or if it’s all three, but that’s huge.
McCain now edging ahead after 11%
189. PfP. Thank you for faithfully and accurately repeating my misspelling of “Inquisitor” so that I was in no way misrepresented!
With more than 10% returns in VA, Obama is over 60%, Hillz sub 40. Looks like some pretty accurate exit polls, for once. And pretty damning for Clinton.
“All that said I think a British RP accent is the most attractive English accent, globally..”
Yer wha, lyke?
Can Huckabee actually win the nomination from here? Suppose he wins Virginia. Can he win Maryland? I guess Texas is possible, but what is there on the R side of the fence between now and then?
McCain still needs 400 delegates to be sure…
198. You’d be hearing the “r” at the end of syllables in words like “car” or “word”. It is used throughout the United States with some small exceptions on the East coast. It has almost entirely died out in Britain except isolated spots, including Cornwall.
Maryland Dem electorate was 38% black, it’s going to be huge for Obama!
199 - Tiny Hispanic vote in VA and very different to the kind of Hispanic vote you’ve found in AZ, NM, NV and CA, and more importantly TX.
VA Prinmary - Republicans
Early returns show McCain winning northern VA Richmond-DC suburbs, splitting the Tidewater, Southside and Shenadoah Valley, and losing to Huckabee in southwest VA.
Could be a longish night.
McCain developing a solid lead at the Virginia Board of Elections site, but collapsing at Betfair. Fox shows Huck winning independents (seems puzzling!).
Obama is just walloping Clinton in VA. She’s now below 38, and he’s heading for 62.
This could be a 25 percent margin.
But maybe some Clintony rural districts have yet to report.
204 - Huckabee needs to win nearly every state and hope Romney gives all his to him. Alternatively McCain could just start really campaigning properly for a week or two.
It looks like Huck is going to perform very well in VA.
198. Sean T. At times you are priceless!
Maryland extending polling hours due to snow
McCain now ahead in Virginia - but according to the Virginia voting website mentioned above no returns are in from either Arlington or Chesterfield counties - the tow largest (I guess Richmond and Norfolk) where McCain should surley outpoll Huck. Betfair shows the two neck and neck and briefly had Huck as favourite.
I’m green on both - so unless there’s a surge on Ron Paul I’m off to bed witha profit for once - unlike my recent bets on Hillary!
213. That must be due to the Obama avalanche…
Re 167. Socrates “158. Clearly not analagous seeing that there was a state presence in parts of Boston and New York, there was not a the centre of a global terrorist group operating there, the US government would have been willing to act had there been, and it would have been the centre of a city rather than a barren mountainous land.”
1. The IRA were a central part of a leftist terrorist network, cooperating with Palestinian factions, and organisations like the Bader meinhoff. So Boston and New York were centers of international terrorism.
Where Al Qada are will not be in some barren deserted mountain where no one lives.
Barrack is a nutter. End of.
209 - Rural areas in VA normally report first, that’s what happened back in the midterms… Allen led for most of the night till the cities came in and Webb began to edge out a tiny lead.
Clinton will probably be doing well in the panhandle, in the southwest of the state, in the Lynchberg area but beyond that i dont see much in the way of a big Clinton vote in VA tonight.
199: 55% share of Latino vote relates to Virginia only.
Full hour and a half. Damn… Longer night then
re: accents, believe the orginal argument for the New World Shakespeare connection, was that the backward inhabitants of the Appalachian mountains (my people, at least spiritually) spoke an antiquated form of English, because they had not been subjected to modernizing influence.
Mostly poppycock, but still an article of faith in Appalachia!
As for the “best accent” still remember English people telling me they didn’t have a “problem” with native speakers of American English speaking in that fashion.
BUT it drove them nuts when non-native English speakers spoke with an American accent!
216 - I don’t think Barack is a nutter. I just think he needs to spend some time as VP. If only to make my position on Betfair better :-p
215 - Bad weather so the networks say, although Dem turnout in MD is said to be larger than in VA and a very big Black turnout in you belive the networks…
seanT - have you been up all night or are you now back in the UK?
63% - 36% after 30% of returns in VA. What does this mean in terms of delegates?
114 - Arlington Co is suburban DC; Chesterfield is suburbs south of Richmond, north of Petersburg.
NOTE that VA has many independent cities that are NOT included in any county, and report their votes separately.
Re 172, Peter the Punter “I mean, a lot of the people I know are somewhere in-between, and after a good holiday in the South of France, even I can attract some funny looks from immigration officers.”
Thats got nothing to do with your skin colour
205 - It has almost entirely died out in Britain except isolated spots, including Cornwall.
The Scots might have something to say about this sentence
224 Presumably a 63:36 split?
224. Obama ahead by 140-odd nationally in pledged by the end of the night. VA would be something like 53-30 to Obama….
Well early returns show McCain beating Huck 3-1 in Arlington County - should be comfortable win for McCain then…
23. Still in Thailand. Woke up early after a very spicy curry last night (too much info?!). Thought I’d catch the early scores.
Will be returning to bed after the DC exits. Looks like another festive night for Obamalads. And Lassies.
226 Maybe it’s the red hat, Benny.
Someone just took 2.1 on McCain… curious.
Obama now a solid 30% up in Virginia?! At what point does this become embarrasing and even humiliating for Clinton!
225 - thanks SSI
230 - but then Arlington is about as metropolitan as it gets in VA. CNN projects Huck a little ahead…
I got a fair bit of McCain at 1.91, 1.95, 1.96 etc.
Prolly lay off in 20 mins.
VA Primary
city of Danville (southside VA) with 88% reporting is spliting down the middle, has to be good news for McCain.
232 ….. along with those bronzed thighs!
Re 192, Socrates. “182. Depends on the paper, and depends on whether Musharraf says he had agreed to it after the event. Obama’s point is that it’s too 20th century to think only in terms of state actors - there are non-state actors who are an imminent threat to the US, and the US has a right to strike at them. If possible we should work with the state government in question, but even if they are unwilling we should still be allowed to take out the threat.”
Fair enough. The Real IRA are still a threat, I welcome your invitation for our people to kill people on your streets.
Don’t know if this has been said before, but apparently Obama WON Virginia Hispanics by 55-45.
Deeply significant for the Texas “Firewall”.
Is there any good news for Hillary tonight? Starting to pity the old girl.
VA Primary GOP
Henrico Co (suburban Richmond) 15% reporting
McC = 64%, Huckabee = 28%
CNN now reporting McCain up in VA
241: speak for yourself
I have to say Huck has been a betting star again with a bit of bet /lay, profit even in defeat.
I mentioned a couple of days ago that McCain looked to be going to be back on track tonight but that Hucks figures looked very very low, ie wrong.
Yet again the markets react a bit too much to every piece of info.
This is great fun, again though the profit this time isnt big volume wise its welcome. I suspect the same trick will be repeated by Huck before this is all wrapped up.
[241] - She’s still got her health.
And Betfair’s switched. So was it just as simple as punters tuned to CNN? If we find a state elections board in future that’s ahead of the curve with their website will it be more free money?
DC called for Obama….
247/jdc shhhhh!
As regards Obama. I know he is inexperienced and not everyone is persuaded by either his rhetoric or oratory. Personally I am moved by both.
Nor is his life story a sufficient reason to endorse him for high office, incredible though his achievements have been from an underprivileged start in life. The true American Dream.
So leave all that aside. What is left? One of the youngest senators in recent history, I think. A Harvard Legal Scholar of note. A great intellect as judged by his peers. A more than effective communicator. A witty, warm, quick witted and impressive individual in both interviews and debates.
It’s a risk choosing someone so inexperienced. But I have rarely seen such confidence, assurance, grace and hope personified in one individual.
VA Primary GOP
Huckabee winning Lee County in far southwest tip of the state, location of the famous Cumberland Gap, by better than 2/1
“Doctor Walker, an English chap
First White man to cross the Cumberland Gap
Cumberland Gap, Cumberland Gap
It’s fourteen miles to the Cumberland Gap”
re 220. Sea Shanti Irish “As for the “best accent” still remember English people telling me they didn’t have a “problem” with native speakers of American English speaking in that fashion.”
i don’t mind how you speak it, I just wish you folks would learn how to spell things like colour and labour
“BUT it drove them nuts when non-native English speakers spoke with an American accent! ”
Yea me too! The barst*rds!
247 - that’s my guess too and let’s hope so!
Hrrmf, trivky tricky, McCain looked in trouble from the exit polls, but county returns look good for him.
Now, whether to hold on to 1.93ish, or lay it off at 1.25ish…..
Oh well, betfair price dropped below that, I lay off at
Looks like McCain is fine in VA
250. …And a Democrat who won his Senate seat by the largest margin ever. Someone who has brought to the table people who have never participated in the electoral process. A Democrat bringing in huge numbers of independents and even Republicans.
(damn html tags, can’t use lessthan sign!)
….under 1.15.
Re 232 Peter the Punter “226 Maybe it’s the red hat, Benny. :-)”
Call me Benny again and I shall always refer to you as Peter from Putney
Well then, thanks due to SeanT for bringing it to our attention.
DC called for Obama. Shocker.
re 250 It is probably a greater risk letting someone who has mismanaged her campaign so badly to be running America.
The only strategy she had was that of inevitability. What rubbish?
Rove (on Fox) saying later returning Counties favour McCain.
McCain already 4% ahead with 46% counted so appears he COULD(!) have won comfortably.
250 Totally agree.
Did anyone mention the virtually “free money” available on the GOP contest in Virginia? - If so I missed it.
Re 250 Stjohn “It’s a risk choosing someone so inexperienced. But I have rarely seen such confidence, assurance, grace and hope personified in one individual.”
I thought we had met?
Seriously my deepest concern with him is the idea that he can use military force, against the will of a sovereign government who is also an ally and nuclear power.
Peter - nobody mentioned it as such until I pointed out that McCain was being taken at better than evens while being ahead in the returns.
But SeanT pointed to a site which is about 20,000 votes faster than the CNN count, therefore a great predictor of the next move in the Betfair market before it happens.
“I don’t mind how you speak it, I just wish you folks would learn how to spell things like colour and labour”
Oh dear! I’d hoped someone wouldn’t fall into that elephant trap! Believe it or not, the Brits used to spell those words without a “u”, until the mid 19th Century, when idiots like Bowdler tried to “standardise/standardize? the language….
Benedict,
Firstly, I am British.
Secondly, there is a clear difference between striking the largest city in the world, and targeted strikes in the Northwest frontier.
Thirdly, you don’t win an argument by finishing a post with “end of.”
Fourthly, I find “end of” as a lone clause a far more abhorrent use of the English language than bizarre American spellings!
264: yup, that’s what I’ve been doing too
260 - But she wasn’t the only one to think that, Mike. I think you’re being a little harsh on the old girl. I know you want to pick up on your lovely 50/1 shot but it is tough to argue that she is NOT the safe pair of hands.
BO is more exciting but it’s not a risk to give Hill the presidency based on the fact that she thought a 30 point opinion poll lead was safe. I would predict Labour will beat the Lib Dems in the next general election. Would that make me a useless commentator if I am wrong in 2010? It would be a surprise. Like Obamamania has been.
Re 265, Rod Crosby “Oh dear! I’d hoped someone wouldn’t fall into that elephant trap! Believe it or not, the Brits used to spell those words without a “u”, until the mid 19th Century, when idiots like Bowdler tried to “standardise/standardize? the language….”
Exactly. The yanks should just learn to keep up
258 “Call me Benny again and I shall always refer to you as Peter from Putney.”
I been called worse things, Benedict.
Seriously, if it annoys, I won’t do it, but I must say I like both names - Benedict and Benny. And they both suit you.
Why has the fur started flying on PB?
Looking at the precincts to vote McCain will end up well ahead.
Huchkabee closing gap a bit on Virginia website.
Now 46.99% - 44.68% after 54% counted.
Yup, the Huck done good. Might end up close enough that Romney loyalists could have made the difference.
Anyway, I’m green book again, it’s bedtime. See you all next Tuesday.
Re 266, Socrates, “Firstly, I am British.
Secondly, there is a clear difference between striking the largest city in the world, and targeted strikes in the Northwest frontier.”
No one was talking about the largest city in the world, we were talking about New York and Boston.
Secondly, regardless of size, population or anything else, you have to look at the political impact.
If there were an operation that “didn’t happen” “wasn’t us” and so on, fine. Advertising it in a political campaign?
Just how many Muslims does he want to radicalise?
245 Easy money, eh Yokel? £166 for about an hour’s ‘work’. Beats the horses any day.
264 jdc - Well done, brilliant - I must have been half asleep at the time. In fact I was on two long phone calls earlier and a bit like the Huck victory in Kansas a couple of days ago, it seems that I missed out. Never mind, I spotted my own Dem states win number bet earlier!
OK,I’m back to bed. Sweet wins for Obama, very sweet. Can’t somehow see the Hillz coming back in MD.
Obamarama!!
Gnite.
Re 270, Peter the Punter “I been called worse things, Benedict.”
I suspect you have
“Seriously, if it annoys, I won’t do it, but I must say I like both names - Benedict and Benny. And they both suit you.”
I can’t quite say why but it does. I respond to Ben or Benedict but am irritated by anything other than Benedict in writing, unless it is from close friends in informal circumstances.
Cranky or what?
268 - You should read that Atlantic piece Mike referenced. Tale of overweening hubris.
Hillary spent $30 million on her 2006 reelection in NY State for US Senate. Which she could have won without spending one thin dime.
Bet she’d like to see some of THAT cash today.
275. It is. I thought the gravy train would stop but I can still opportunities predicting a lot of this stuff, certainly in terms of polling trends seems straightforward somehow.
I’ve stuck to a simple primary by primary approach of only selecting to bet in those where i think the outsider can win or get close. Usually its layed off or hedged but in some cases left to run.
1 - As a Burnley fan I am absolutely delighted at our comeback against QPR. Andrew Cole hattrick for the first time in eight years - inspired signing!
re 268 I would have thought that not being able to see a major threat to her position is not a good quality in a president.
Yes I did spot Barack when his price was 50-1 and suggested that others back him in May 2005. Even if Obama does not do it I will remain pretty proud of that prediction.
Fox - McCain wins Virginia.
VA called for McCain. Bit premature, imho….
re 281. Another Burnley fan on the site. What great news.
78 Benedetto? Always thought that sounds very classy. And does make the ladies go a bit gooey, don’t you know. [Nudge, nudge, wink wink]
VA PRIMARY GOP
Middlesex County (Tidewater) 62% reporting
McC = 52%, Huckabee = 37%
Knew you guys this onoe.
Half because of the Old Dominion’s remembrance. And 99% for the “sex”
Re 282, Mike Smithson “Yes I did spot Barack when his price was 50-1 and suggested that others back him in May 2005. Even if Obama does not do it I will remain pretty proud of that prediction.”
Yes I can see you would be.
Very good pick that and profitable too.
279 - She was motivated by the belief that winning big would give her more credibility, attract donors, endorsements etc. Her strategy mirrored the Bush one of 2000, spend millions on a reelection landslide, get the establishment and endorsements on side and steamroller to the nomination. She just didn’t account for the Obama phenomenon. Just as Bush was challenged by the McCain insurgency, Clinton was always going to be challenged, but the establishment candidate usually wins. If Obama gets the nomination I think credit should go to him, rather than criticising Clinton. In many other years she would have won.
276. PfP. I haven’t had a bet tonight either. But well done to Yokel, jdc et al who have made money trading on Huckabee in VA.
McCain just declared for VA on CNN
284: yeah… particularly look at Roanoke county, only 50% counted, huge vote pile there, and Huck winning by 29%….
278 No problem, Benedict. Your call.
Had a good nite? Dear old Huck did me a good turn by putting up a fight. Right result in the end, and politically, probably best for everybody.
McCain can start thinking about the November contest now.
And the tipping point gets closer for Obama and Clinton.
Burnley fans please donate some weights and steak to Kyle Lafferty.
Kid’s a talent but needs a bit more beef.
285 - Who are the other Burnley fans Mike?
Season ticket holder here - real optimism at the moment with Owen Coyle in charge.
292 - Lafferty just needs to go up front and not be playing on the left wing. That said, if he is valued at £4 million at the moment, a few goals and we could add a bit more on!
If any of you chaps want to make an easy 1% I’ve put most of my Huck profit on the lay side of the Virginia repub market @ 1.01 as I need the cash elsewhere and don’t want to wait for settlement.
292 Burnley fans, Yokel? There are two of them?!
VA Primary GOP
McCain winning Norfolk comfortably, ditto Virginia Beach (home of Pat Robertson & CBN). Also ahead in Portsmouth (on other side of VA Capes) but not by much.
McCain also taking Staunton city (northern Valley) which is good news for him.
Still lots of southwest VA to report, and this vote is running hot for Huckabee.
But also lots of votes still to come from northern VA, Tidewater, Southside & northern Valley.
So on balance does look like McCain will take VA. But I wouldn’t bet the farm on the outcome. And wouldn’t make a network projection without some more votes in the can!
Isn’t Huck now damaging McCain by demonstrating just how fragile his support is and how easy he is to turn over?
re 293. I was there on that wonderful night in April 1960 at Maine Road when we won the championship. Great days and lets hope they will return.
re 289, Stjohn “276. PfP. I haven’t had a bet tonight either. But well done to Yokel, jdc et al who have made money trading on Huckabee in VA.”
Really? I have had fun creating a fully green book!
Re 291, Peter the Punter “278 No problem, Benedict. Your call.”
Many thanks, though as this is tantermount to conversation rather than writing, Ben is also fine. (Boy am I sounding cranky)
“Had a good nite? Dear old Huck did me a good turn by putting up a fight. Right result in the end, and politically, probably best for everybody.”
Yep. Me too. I am going to have to keep an eye on how the Huck can make me money.
re 295 - thanks whoever took that - still just under £2000 left if you want it.
Any way, I must be off to bed!
Good night all!
Final adjusted exit polls have McCain winning by 9%. Somewhat different from when polls closed, they had Huck +2%!
Benedict, strikes on Al Qaida in the tribal areas of pakistan are not the same as strikes in pakistan.
The areas are not under Pakistan control. I understand the pakistan army tried to take control but were humiliated into a surrender.
here is a link for light reading, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waziristan
I wouldnt get too stressed by it.
OK. McCain now 3 point ahead. He’s in, but Networks were about 15 mins too quick off the mark….
BREAKING NEWS: Clinton’s deputy campaign manager Mike Henry steps down…
299 - Mike - a fellow claret! Superb.
I cannot say I was supporting the clarets in 1960, I am only in my tenth or eleventh season as a season ticket holder and my first game was as recently as 1989 as a young lad. But I am genuinely impressed by the new manager - he talks a good game and more importantly the quality and style of football has increased markedly.
The next few years should be enjoyable, especially with the new ground development plans as well.
Where can I watch election coverage other than CNN which does not seem to load for me?
303 Heaven forbid that our exit polls were out by 11% - Bob Worcester and his ilk would be shot at dawn.
305. Just how many wheels does the Clintonmobile have? By my count, she’s lost about 7 already….
VA Primary - GOP
Just said that Stanton city vote big for McCain.
But surrounding Augusta County is going even bigger for Huckabee.
And check this one out:
Colonial Heights city (suburb of Petersburg) 100% reporting
McC = 47%, Huckabee 43% - pretty good for Huck
But McCain crushing Huckabee in Faifax County & City (DC suburbs) with most of the vote yet to report.
307: yet another fabulous effort from Edison!
305 BREAKING NEWS: Clinton’s deputy campaign manager Mike Henry steps down…
Don’t shoot the messenger!
Turnout in the Dem VA primary is blowing the Republicans out of the water: McCain and Huckabee combined aren’t close to Obama’s total, and aren’t that far ahead of Clinton’s.
Dem turnout is almost 500,000; GOP turnout isn’t close to 300,000 yet.
VA isn’t looking that red anymore…
278. Benedict. Fair enough by me.
282. Mike. That was an awesome prediction. I wish I had found the site at the time you put up the tip. I think I discovered PB.com a few months later but managed to follow your suggestion at a later date and got on at initial odds for me of 12/1 and 8/1. I’ve backed him subsequently at much shorter odds.
I hope that your strategic approach to bank a profit has still left you with something in the Obama locker to look forward to. I think you will be vindicated all the way to The White House.
I think PJ’s suggestion of a large victory for Obama is very possible and conversely the ooposite may apply for McCain. But I suspect and hope that your Obama call will prove to be your finest hour. At least so far…
Well, looks like all the fun is over for another nite.
Thanks to everybody for their help and company, and thank you too Mike Huckerbee for putting up a good fight. The betting would have been very dull without it.
Wisconsin next in a week’s time? The boy Obama will want some stopping.
Nite all.
308 RobCrosby - excellent work from you mate - really good stuff. Do you have an anon email addy you can be reached at?
288 - Agree with your analysis of Hillary.
Ironic thing is, she’d have enhanced herself in NY and US, if she’d used the old Gaylord Nelson strategy (D-Wisconsin) and spent 17 cents and a subway token on her reelection bid.
Certainly think calling Hillary a “safe pair of hands” is ludicrous. After the health care fiasco - and now this?
Been an hour since the polls closed in Maryland & DC and still no actual votes reported from either.
313 I think PJ’s suggestion of a large victory for Obama is very possible
stjohn - this sounds as if you are endorsing my buy of No. of Dem States Won bet.
Thanks for your confidence.
316 - Or was that William Proxmire - yes, Proxmire - always did get those Cheesheads mixed up!
315. try rodc@crosbytitanic.co.uk
Rod….
317 Maryland is still open. They are keeping them open until 9:30EST due to the inclement weather.
Don’t think I like CNN figures very much. Virginia site says 5460 total votes in Fairfax county. CNN has McCain 5.5k already, with 16% vote counted…..
Typo hell - not the first time with CNN either.
Clinton speech in Texas now… Sky TV
321 - Thanks!
317 - polls don’t close in Maryland until 2:30am (GMT) due to the bad weather.
That’s why I’m still here.
Even the Obama supporters in the US don’t seem as certain he’s going to win as those of them on here.
322: update, was Virginia site that was way wrong.
325 But surely, the polls have Obama about 20% ahead - it should therefore be no contest?
315. Agreed PC. An excellent, bold, well reasoned and decisive analysis by RodCrosby over the last few days and weeks. If, as I suspect, Rod’s analysis proves accurate and prescient, we and he may be kicking ourselves for not further backing what looks increasingly like “a sure thing”.
Much is made of March 4th. I think about 170+ delegates are up for grabs that day. If Hillary gets an overall 10 percent lead she gains just 17 delegates on Obama. 20 per cent gains her 34 delegates. She will struggle to do that well in my view and she needs to do much better to make any real impact. I think she is in big trouble and I would guess it will be all over on or before March 4th.
323 Rod - please can you give us your take on Hillary’s mood and general demeanour plus anything of interest she might have said as regards her prospects, etc.
Virginia site has fewer votes for each candidate than CNN site but more precincts counted. It’s been like this for a while.
Seems odd - it’s not that one site is ahead of the other but they have different results in?
329 PfP Its the usual stuff about healthcare etc, but she is saying she is starting her campaign to carry Texas
328 - There are 370 votes up for grabs on March 4th. It is akin to Guiliani’s situation with Florida. She needs to win and win big or it is all over.
HRC very smart to be doing her election night speech from Texas. Her speech is good - you really have to admire her resiliance.
330: I think other than the headline vote figure (which the CNN has repeatedly verified about 15 mins later), anything else on the Virginia site should be treated as potentially utter nonsense. There have been several counties where typoes have been corrected - eg Fairfax has been at 98% counted for ages, but the turnout and vote totals keep changing.
This is a great speech from Hillary.
330 Yep, Obama looks an absolute certainty now for the nomination - despite this I can’t bring myself to back him at such short odds, even for apparently “free money”, when just a couple of weeks ago his odds were more than double what they are now.
334. There are clear inconsistencies. Now:
CNN - Mc 170k, Huck 150k
Virginia - Mc 165k, Huck 137k
I don’t think Huck has actually won the difference 13k - 5k. So they are inconsistent.
329. To be honest, she’s looking fairly relaxed at the moment. Possibly her best speech so far (not saying that much!). I guess she’s gone through the “pain barrier” now and is perhaps being herself a bit more. She has nothing to lose, I suppose…
Lots of “we can (do this)”
Focusing on Energy big-time.. “We have the Sun, we have the Wind… we can create millions of jobs… We can deal with the problem of Global Warming…”
Well, we’ll always have Paris (Texas!)….
Oh well, I’m off to bed guys, goodnight all.
327 - I mean the whole shebang not the Maryland vote!
332. Kieran. Thanks for the correction. As you say she needs a big victory on that day and currently it’s not clear where it comes from.
Anyone watching this? Why the hell didn’t she make a speech like this a month ago?
333/335 Sure, but sadly it’s far, far too late.
CNN cutting its coverage of Hillary. They would not have done that if she had been the front-runner
We need more roads, we need more bridges, we need more tunnels…
Err….??
(crapola)
341 - It is possible but unlikely. I think she needs to win OH and TX by 15 point margins. (The SUSA poll for OH released today had her 17 ahead.) Plus VT and RI. Obama would still lead on pledged delegates but Clinton would have a reason to stay in. However, I think it’s increasingly implausible that she can withstand Obama’s momentum. My only caution is allowing emotion to exceed reason. Don’t count Clinton out until she is nailed into her coffin.
335 Caught tail end of Hillary’s TX speech, she sounded very good.
337 CNN numbers are from AP, which has someone at every county/city election office in VA calling in numbers. So would expect roughly comparable numbers but also some seeming anomolies.
NBC calls Maryland for Obama and McCain
345 Not too much concern tere then about Global Warming - well I suppose she is in Texas.
Fox:
McCain wins Maryland
Obama wins Maryland
So clean sweeps for Obama and McCain tonight
Sky commentary: Ohio & Texas will be Clinton’s last stand….
Initial exit poll has Maryland McCain by 25%, Obama by 27% (despite 62% of voters being female).
CNN just called Maryland for Obama
Incidentally, last SUSA batch of polls for MD/VA looking very accurate, for GOP and Dems.
I guess she knows deep down she’s finished. As others here have said however, she’s not about to quit.
Obama wins 59% of women voters in Maryland
Obama has chosen to do his speech tonight in Wisconsin - the next big battle
Will be interesting to hear his first speech as the confirmed front-runner. HRC sounds like she might make a good outsider from that.
And now…. the main act (Obama)… (sky)
ON WISCONSIN, ON WISCONSIN
Can you imagine Gordon Brown doing one of these Obama/Clinton style rallies?
He’s virtually paraphrasing MLK, apart from “I may not get there with you…” bit!
For those who can swallow skinny oddds, Obama at 1/5 looks value to win Wisconsin tonight. He would doubtless have won anyway, but Hillary’s decision to ignore this state and head off to Texas is tantamount to gifting it to her opponent.
364 Oops Wisconsin is of course next Tuesday.
Honours McCain (applause)
George Bush won’t be on the ballot (cheers!!!!)
329. pfp, no offensc mate, but do you know you can pick up a Freeview box for about £20 that shows Sky News (channel 82)?
Songs of the Potomoc Primary States
VIRGINIA
Based upon a true story, so I was told.
The Wreck of Old ‘97
Well they gave him his orders
At Monroe, Virginia
Said Steve, you’re way behind time
This is not 38
This is Ol’ 97
Put her into Spencer on time
Then he turned around and said
To his black, greasy fireman
Shovel on a little more coal
“And when we cross
That White Oak Mountain
Watch Ol’ ‘97 roll
And then a telegram come
From Washington station
This is how it read
Oh that brave engineer
That run ol 97
Is lyin in old Danville dead
Caus he was going down a grade
Making 90 miles an hour
The whistle broke into a scream
He was found in the wreck
With his hand on the throttle
Scalded to death by the steam
Oh, now all you ladies
You’d better take a warning
From this time on and learn
Never speak hard words
To your true-lovin’ husband
For he may leave you and never return
MARYLAND primary Democrats
Calvert Co (southern MD rural) 100% reporting
Obama 48%
Clinton 47%
Prince George’s Co (DC suburbs, majority black) 10% pcts
Obama 76%
Clinton 23%
There’s not a lot of Republicans in DC huh?
370 - That’s why only Republicans for DC Statehood are from Utah!
New thread
Clinton endorser and popular Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland on NPR:
ex-astronaut, ex-presidential candidate and former US Senator John Glenn (D-Ohio) has endorsed Hillary Clinton and will be stumping the state for Clinton.
NPR reporter said Hillary’s crowd in El Texas = 9-10k
Capacity of Obama’s Madison Wisconsin venue = 17k
346 Don’t count Clinton out until she is nailed into her coffin. With a cross through her heart.
Or should that be a stake…