Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
January 4th, 2008
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Focus on the South West
The counties of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, and Avon will generate some of the most interesting contests at the next election. This is because each of the three main parties is well-represented in this region, and because so many of the seats are marginals. Unusually, there is considerable support for UKIP here, who saved their deposit in 15 out of 38 seats in 2005.
In 2005, the Liberal Democrats achieved pole position here, with 15 seats. The Conservatives had 14, and Labour 9. Cornwall, Devon, and Avon are each allocated one extra seat in the boundary changes. The Conservatives have every reason to be delighted with the work of the Boundary Commission. They gain the extra seats in Devon and Avon, Somerset North East (formerly Wansdyke) is converted from a Labour marginal to a Conservative marginal, Bristol NW is converted from a safe Labour seat to a highly marginal one., and the new Cornish seat, St. Austell and Newquay, is also a key marginal. The notional results on the new boundaries would be Conservative 17, Liberal Democrat 16, Labour 8.
In the rural parts of the region, politics often bears little relation to national trends. Liberal (and Liberal Democrat) MPs such as David Penhaligon, Paddy Ashdown, and Jeremy Thorpe were able to build up huge personal followings in their constituencies. Likewise, well-regarded Conservatives such David Heathcote Amory and Anthony Steen were able to survive the landslide of 1997, when colleagues representing much “safer” seats were swept away.
Cornish politics is now dominated by the Liberal Democrats, in a way it has not been since the 1920s. They won all five seats in 2005, and are virtually certain to win five out of six next time, namely Camborne & Redruth, South East Cornwall, North Cornwall, Truro and Falmouth, and St. Ives. But St. Austell and Newquay has a notional Liberal Democrat majority of only a few hundred, plus a large vote for UKIP which the Conservatives could squeeze. If the Conservative vote rises well at the next election, then this should be a gain.
In Devon, South West Devon, East Devon, and Tiverton and Honiton will be safe for the Conservatives. Torridge & West Devon should be held fairly easily, now that Geoffrey Cox has had the chance to build up an incumbency vote. Totnes will provide another tight and exciting contest. For three elections in a row, Anthony Steen has held onto this seat by his fingernails, despite there being a big vote for UKIP, of nearly 4,000 in 2005. He will be aided by boundary changes which increase his lead by a few hundred. In the new seat of Devon Central, the Conservatives have a notional lead of less than 2,000 over the Liberal Democrats, and the fight for this seat will be intense. The Liberal Democrats themselves should hold North Devon, and Newton Abbott without too much difficulty, but Torbay will be another matter altogether. P B Com regular Marcus Wood has a large UKIP vote to squeeze, for the Conservatives, but in turn, Adrian Saunders has a large Labour vote to squeeze, for the Liberal Democrats. Labour will hold Plymouth Moor View, and Exeter (where boundary changes favour them) easily enough, but will lose Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (which is virtually the same as the existing Plymouth Sutton) if the Conservatives are heading for an overall majority.
In Somerset, the Conservatives will retain Bridgwater & West Somerset, Somerset North (formerly Woodspring in Avon) and Wells, and the Liberal Democrats will retain Yeovil. That will leave two tight contests in Taunton Deane and Somerton & Frome, both held by the Liberal Democrats, although the former was won by the Conservatives in 2001. Each constituency has solid blocs of support for both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, and neither party has won decisively since 1997. If the Conservatives perform well at the next election, then in all likelihood, they’ll gain both, but not by much. Somerset North East has been converted into a notional Conservative seat, and it is very hard to see its incumbent Labour MP holding on to it.
In Avon, there are extensive boundary changes. Thornbury & Yate (formerly Northavon) becomes much safer for the Liberal Democrats, but this is actually bad news for them, as they need more of their voters in the new seat of Filton & Bradley Stoke, which is a genuine three way marginal, though notionally Conservative. If there is a swing to the Conservatives, the party should hold this without too much difficulty. The Conservatives also benefit in Bristol North West, which is transformed by the arrival of two ultra-safe Conservative wards from Bristol West. The Conservatives will be favourites to gain this seat from Labour. Bristol West will remain a tight contest between Liberal Democrats and Labour, although the Conservatives are completely out of contention, now. Bristol South and East will remain safe for Labour. Kingswood is more marginal, and witnessed a big swing to the Conservatives in 2005, but should only be lost if Labour suffers a 1987-type defeat. Bath should remain safe for the Liberal Democrats.
Finally, Dorset is relatively unaffected by boundary changes, and retains eight seats. Bournemouth East, Poole, and Christchurch will remain safely Conservative. In all likelihood, Oliver Letwin’s seat of West Dorset will be retained as well, given that the Liberal Democrats were unable to dislodge him in 2001 or 2005. Robert Walter nearly lost North Dorset to the Liberal Democrats in 2005, but will be delighted by boundary changes that add 2,000 votes to his majority. Bournemouth West, on the other hand, sees the Conservative lead cut to around 2,500 votes, and this seat must be treated as a marginal for the first time. Jim Knight did outstandingly well to win South Dorset for Labour in 2001, and to increase his lead in 2005, but I can’t see him bucking the trend for the third time, and I expect the Conservatives to win this. On paper, Mid Dorset and Poole North looks fairly safe for the Liberal Democrats, but I am advised that they consider it vulnerable, and so should be treated as marginal.
There were two by-elections last night. In Welwyn & Hatfield Borough, Welham Green, the result was Conservative 539, Lib Dem 484, BNP 214, Labour 88. Conservative hold. This represents a huge swing to the Liberal Democrats, (as well as a large BNP vote), compared to May, but almost certainly reflects the fact that the outgoing Conservative councillor is alleged to have committed a serious criminal offence.
In Cambridgeshire County - Roman Bank and Peckover the result Conservative 897, Labour 380, UKIP 192. Conservative hold. Oddly, the Liberal Democrats didn’t field a candidate in a seat where they won over 40% in 2005.
Sean Fear
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Thanks, Sean. Excellent analyses as usual
Are the Cornish nationalists still fielding candidates at general elections?
2. I believe so.
2. As a patriotic Cornishman, I can confirm that the Cornish Nats are certainly fighting their corner. One of my best mates is a Mebyon Kernow (”sons of Cornwall”) councillor for Truro.
He hopes to be selected as a candidate for MP soon.
MK are actually a moderately effective force at local council level.
Hi Sean, Might quibble about Taunton, where Jeremy Browne looks much stronger now than his initial thin victory might suggest, though Somerton & Frome is always tight. Worst thing though is your Map(!): Somerset does not extend to all of old Avon, which was divided into North Somerset, City of Bristol, Bath & North East Somerset and South Glos, all of which are UAs. If you just wanted the ceremonial counties, then the Somerset/Glos border is only just above Bristol which is actually about 20 miles further south than on this map!
PS Nice article Sean, but I’m not quite so sure the Lib Dems will do as well as you say in Cornwall.
Their europhilia is abidingly unpopular, and Cameron appeals to the kind of soft-centre “blow-ins”, and richer older people, currently migrating to Cornwall in large numbers.
Labour are fading due to sheer boredom. I therefore think it is entirely possible Cameron’s Tories will pick up Cornish votes directly from Labour, and maybe sneak another seat or two.
Labour will definitely hold South Dorset.
Marginally O/T
All is not lost for Boris Johnson if Jeremy Clarkson becomes P.M.
MY CABINET
CHANCELLOR: Ken Dodd - very sound on taxation.
MINISTER OF TRANSPORT: Richard Hammond - a man with the right sense of priorities when it comes to modes of travel.
HOME SECRETARY: Henry Cooper - a knockout for criminals.
CABINET SECRETARY: Heidi Klum - no Cabinet meeting would ever be boring with the presence of the supermodel.
MINISTER FOR FOOD & DRINK: Keith Floyd - no more puritan lectures about alcohol units.
FOREIGN SECRETARY: Boris Johnson - diplomacy is his middle name.
http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/PMClarkson/
Gotta admit, there are a few good ideas there
Cornwall South-East, and Truro & Falmouth look vulnerable for the LibDems, because the incumbent MPs are standing down. On average the LDs lose 5% (and often a lot more) over and above the national vote change when this occurs….
I predict two very close results, and the distinct possibility of Tory gains…
I’m not sure Richard Drax will oust Jim Knight. Drax is not that popular, looked on as someone who has used his name to get the nomination. Knight has on the other hand, built up a strong following, if of course its a Tory landside, that would see him out.
Brooke, will hold on, the Tory PPC’s sexuality could be an issue, in the more erm… less progressive parts of the constituency.
Torbay, (the scene of my mis-spent youth) the last Tory MP Rupert Allyson,(Nigel West) did not cover himself with glory, but as sean pointed out it all depends on Labour tactical voting.
Yes SeanF, I’m always puzzled that the SW votes so heavily LD when the area is plainly hostile to the EU.
Any explanation you can offer for this paradox?
4. According to Wikipedia, MK now have 7 district councillors, and 21 town/parish councillors, and won 5% of the overall vote in Cornish local elections in May - which isn’t at all bad for a fringe party.
5. The map isn’t mine. However, I was quite puzzled over whether to mention Avon or not (does it have postal, or ceremonial status?). In the event, I thought it simpler to retain the name, rather than divide it up into its constituent unitary authorities.
(From Previous Thread)
If America wants to go around screwing up the world, then fine, I just dont think every sodding time we should send *OUR* troops into their stupid wars.
I would love you to be so defending of other countries aswell, I doubt you would care if someone made anti-french or anti-german statements here.
PS I am not anti-american, or at least I wouldnt consider myself one, and yes I do envy its power, so what?
The Avon constitiuencies last time were somewhat unique in that in aggregate there was a three way dead heat
Conservatives 31.9% Labour 31.9% Lib Dem 30.9%
“If America wants to go around screwing up the world, then fine, I just dont think every sodding time we should send *OUR* troops into their stupid wars”
We don’t.
9
Anyway I couldn’t vote for Richard Drax, ever since his mad uncle Max tried to take over the world in Moonraker.
11. MK have a fierce rivalry with the LDs. They have practically identical soft-left community-first wishy-washy eco-wheelie bin policies, except MK claim they are the real voice of Cornwall and the LDs some kind of charlatans.
(MK have long ago abandoned the nationalist letter bombing and plastic pasty-waving)
MK ate into the LD vote at the locals. The hatred is now mutual. Apparently it gets quite nasty over the chocolate Hobnobs at Truro city council.
14- Errr OK then….What do we do? Send 6 harriers to join 500 American planes bombing missions so we can pretend we are part of the American Empire?
15
Sorry it was Hugo, mind u Max Drax sounds better…
8 Thanks. I wasn’t aware.
9 I think that if, say, the Tory vote went up by 5% nationally, they’d take South Dorset regardless.
I wouldn’t have thought Mid Dorset was in much danger, but had heard differently.
10. One explanation, I think, is that at a time when the Tories haven’t looked as though they had a chance of winning, a lot of europsceptics have voted UKIP (13 out of 16 saved deposits in Devon & Cornwall) If the Tories look like they have a chance at the next election, then I think there must be a good chance that a chunk of this vote will go over to them.
12. If someone seriously said “all French people are stupid”, yes, I would call them up on it, for being ridiculous.
If they came from a political background with a history of strident, smelly and adolescent Francophobia, then I would suspect them of bigotry.
Ditto America.
Which region are you going to review Wiltshire (and Gloucestershire in)?
21 I was tempted to include them in the South West, but the article would have just been too long. Wessex, perhaps?
21/22 Middle Earth?
From previous thread…
181/189 - ‘And lefties love to hear stories about how racist, obese, divided, trigger-happy, unequal and prone to electrocuting morons Americans are.’
Sounds like the sort of thing that well known lefty Jeremy Clarkson says every week on Top Gear…
19. Hereford, Harrogate & Knaresborough, and Winchester fall into the same category. Easier prospects for the Tories than the paper figures suggest, although I think Hereford is a gonner whatever happens..
24 But Clarkson means it as a compliment.
What a great map! When did the invading Somerset army conquer that huge swathe of South Gloucestershire?
26 -
25. Should add Sheffield Hallam to that list as well as the incumbant MP who is a political lightweight!!!
:lol: 
It amuses me both Clegg and Hunhe are toast at the next GE!!! 
Think Julia Goldsworthy has had it too. Huge swaths of yellow turning blue! Even bigger swaiths of red turning blue!
More doom and gloom about to be exported from the USA to UK.
U.S. Stocks Fall After Job Growth Misses Forecast;
Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, headed for the worst start since 2000, after a government report showed employers added the fewest jobs in four years last month, heightening concern the economy will slip into a recession.
Has to be bad news for Nulabour ,although, as always it’s not their fault.
Look out for a drop in their popularity in the next batch of opinion polls !
22
What to include in the South West of England has always been a problem. Culturally the West of England are the Cider drinkers, Cornwall being more Celtic and beer drinkers too!
23 If you mean Middle earth in the sense of the home of men, the real demi-paradise, girded by the lesser shires then perhaps that would be correct
29. LD’d will suffer a hammer blow at the next election - wonder what excuses they offer? I think that if a hung parliament was in prospect this would seal the LD fate as the last time they were in support of a government the economy was distorted into recession (Between 1977 & 1979)as judgement day and the appropriate medcine were deferred.
Regarding some comments on the previous thread:
(1) Obama was held at arm’s length by the African American community for his story not being a “black” one but he has been very successful at winning over black leaders. He knows how to speak to a black audience just as much as he knows how to speak to a white audience. When he speaks about waiting for a valet at a restaurant and being thrown car keys by white couples there is a common bond there.
(2) There are indeed Scottish Americans and German Americans. The Pennsylvanian “Dutch” are just one subset of the German American population. There are also lots of people proud of their English heritage and identify as such, although the term “English American” doesn’t seem to exist. I’ve never met any Welsh Americans and most Americans show a strange look when you mention the Welsh people.
(3) Great comments from the two Seans about anti-Americanism. All very true.
(4) Although Obama won significantly among Independents, and they came out to vote for him, the size of his win was more down to lots of identified Democrats turning out to vote for him if you’re going to do a statistical analysis. MSNBC was emphasising this in their coverage last night. It stops Clinton being able to portray him as an outsider and not the “Democrat’s choice.”
(5) While Iowa is not the be-all and end-all in terms of what the result affects, it is crucially important in showing the effect Obama is having, and his ability to get people out to vote.
(6) Roger was right when he said Obama’s homey style won’t go down as well in New Hampshire. Thankfully Obama is an ex-law professor who can also talk to preppy urban folks with a more educated speaking style.
Great analysis this - cheer.
34. Obama is not upto the job of US president. He is a cheap immertation of Bill Clinton and Kennedy. I do not trust his judgement and shudder at the thought of his hands on the nuclear button. Think hillary Clinton is the only democrat upto it at this time.
MCcain for the Republicans if he limits himself to one term, he could bring on Arnold Scwartznigger or some other great figure as VP (Tony Blair).
34
There was one very famous ‘Welsh American’ the surname comes from the Presseli mountains.
http://www.genuki.org.uk/big/wal/PEM/StElvis/
Bob Hope’s mother, ‘Townes’ was also Welsh.
Also,
(7) Born Again Christians and Evangelicals are NOT the same thing. The Evangelicals are the Christian Right, the Born Agains are just those who were either non-Christian or lapsed Christians and have “found Christ” post childhood. Obama is a Born Again Christian if you’re getting confused! Unfortunately the irreligious media elite (even in America) have classed literal Bible readings and personal relationships with a deity together, because they consider both something nutty religious folks would do.
Coldstone, I think you’ll find Richard took a fairly dim view of his uncle’s activities in Moonraker. You shouldn’t withold your vote because just because a family member wants to take over the world. Think of a decent reason.
36. Personally, I think he will be a fantastic President. He will instinctively understand how people in other parts of the world perceive America due to his links to Hawaii (I know it’s a state, but still!), Kenya and Indonesia. He’s also has much more experience in dealing with actual people (as a community leader in Chicago) than most of the Washington elite. Thirdly, he’s a very successful academic which means he has a lot of knowledge of both sides of the debate and of concrete empirical studies, rather than being a partisan who just listens to his side’s sources.
37. There are undoubtedly people with Welsh ancestors in the US. Whether those people know what Welsh is is another matter.
33/36 - Spelling, man! What’s wrong with you?
Sean’s analysis seems broadly sensible, although it appears to gift Cox West Devon on the basis of first-term incumbency but not to extend the same benefit to Browne in Taunton. This may be because neither Ballard nor Flook got such benefit in 2001 and 2005 respectively. But Browne is very much a higher calibre of MP than either of those.
32 That’s right, Ted. “Vote Baggins - you know he makes sense.”
A good article Sean and a welcome starting point for the weekend.
Thanks also for link yesterday on the 08 councillor elections.
FYI circa 130 councillors up for re-election in May in the South West.
I agree with Rod that the 2 LDs standing down opens up their seats in Cornwall.
Bournemouth is no chance for the LDs as their councillors were pushed out in near disgrace in May 07.
One major difference at the next GE is the fact that the Conservatives have selected almost all their PPCs in target seats well in advance.
Another factor not mentioned is the anger over the unitary status of Cornwall and the ending of the district councils. There are splits in the LDs over this and indications of voter dissatisfaction.
20: Entirely agree with seanT on America AND France, or any dumb put-downs of whole countries, come to that. With my political history I’ve had to swallow an instinctive desire to feel that American policies are often bad so Americans must be nasty, and accept the sober truth that sheer friendliness and and positive outlooks on life are the rule rather than the exception.
(Can I say without offence that I really appreciate seanT’s mixture of reasonable punditry and cosmopolitan comments this week?)
42. Does not stop an MP being chopped!
Ballard is in a better job than being an MP now, not so sure Browne could get a better job now? One could say that Ballard is more infliencial now than when she was an MP with a government with a 3 figure majority.
The present politicaL LANDSCAPE SUGGESTS TO ME THAT THE Ld’S HAVE BECOME IRRELAVANT (AGAIN). They have nothing to offer and could actually be seen as causing a diservice to the electrate by causing the political map to be perverted so heavily in Labvour favour. 55% of seats on 35% of the vote in 2005!
43 As a child, I spent many holidays in South Devon (my grandmother had a house in Salcombe) and the place almost precisely matched my mental image of The Shire (though in fact, Tolkien based it on rural Warwickshire c.1897).
45 “(Can I say without offence that I really appreciate seanT’s mixture of reasonable punditry and cosmopolitan comments this week?)”
No: it’s time you two cut out all the chumminess and got back to normal. Christmas is long over.
38: Scorates, I don’t know much about these things, but wouldn’t an evangelical feel that a born-again Christian was a Good Thing and well worth voting for - the sinner who repenteth and all that? I mean, I can tell the difference between John Prescott and Peter Temple-Morris, but the fact that Peter used to be a Conservative wouldn’t put me off him.
Peter (10), surely the answer is that those strongly opposed to the EU vote UKIP, and that party does well in the south-west. Those who dislike the EU, but in lukewarm fashion, don’t treat it as decisive when they vote. I suspect this applies elsewhere.
10 & 19, The anti-establishment position of Celtic liberalism has survived quite well over the past century. Not that it’s done much good for Cornwall. I was surprised when I visited at how run-down the towns were, perhaps they should be allowed to charge a Cornish tax for second homehowners and surfers…
45. ‘Cosmopolitan’ - a delicate way of describing all yesterday’s information about ‘juicing’?
49. “wouldn’t an evangelical feel that a born-again Christian was a Good Thing and well worth voting for?”
Absolutely, but the reverse isn’t necessarily true. Many born-agains would be as put off by evangelicals as the rest of us, although they’re less likely to be mean spirited about them.
Socrates @ 34 re who voted for Obama.
The MSNBC exit poll figures
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225980
show Clinton 31% and Obama 32% among Democrats but Obama much higher (41% vs 17%) among Independents (and a handful of Republicans!).
This roughly accords with the ealier polls that showed a three-way tie among Democrats. For other states, the polls have Clinton ahead. If nothing changes Clinton will therefore win in states where primaries are confined to Democrats. But that is a big if.
Obama also wins among families earning more than $100,000 a year.
34 Fine post, Socrates. It’s going to be a very interesting few weeks. Profitable too, with any luck.
My addled old brain get confused easily these days so can you help me clear up who is where? Are you in the US? Are you indeed a US citizen? Or am I mixing you up with somebody else?
I know we have had a lot of wonderfully well-informed posts from the US and US citizens recently, which incidentally makes the odd Anti-American comments all the more ill-judged and bad mannered.
52 We don’t just come here for the betting hints, JohnB.
49. *the sinner who repenteth*
On looking at Quentin Davies website i can see he has practised what Brown preaches in bringing in “talent” from the outside. Nice job his son has done on the website!!!
:lol: 
42 More first term incumbency plus a tide flowing towards the Conservatives. So, the two make things fairly easy for Cox in West Deveon, but more or less cancel each other out in Taunton.
40 To be honest, I’ve no idea whether Obama would make a good President or not. But I think that you and others may be investing hopes in him that won’t be fulfilled (simply because that is the nature of politicians).
57 My only surprise is that Peter Temple Morris ever found his way into the Tory Party in the first place.
59. Never met him/ don’t know that much about him. He sounds like Patric Mcnee from the avengers i always think!!! Always think of Diana Rigg in the cat suit when i see Temple Morris!
43
Sean did you inherit the house in Salcombe? can I be your friend?
Always my ambition to live there, (sadly never realised) prices in Salcombe must be up in the stratosphere. On the other hand stayed in Hope Cove a few years ago, don’t know if I could put up with all of those, Hampstead types that take the place over!
60 I just think that Labour was always his natural home - even thirty or forty years ago, there were Labour MPs who came from the haute bourgeoisie, so he wouldn’t have been out of place.
62. True, there are some Labour MP’s with very “Blue” heritage!
10 / 19 Many of the eurosceptics (phobes) you mention are quite happy to support Lib Dem (and traditional Liberal) policies - in fact they are traditional Liberals (or quite often these days former labour people who have long since abandoned that party). The only time that Europe, for most of these people becomes a vital issue, is at Euro - Elections themselves. This can be seen by the vast difference in the Lib Dem vote share at Euros compared with other elections. On the doorstep, it is sometimes mentioned at other elections, but most people have not seriously thought of voting Tory, and the standing of the Tories in Cornwall and many parts of Devon and Somerset among the general populus is pretty low still.
In terms of forecasting this far out - it obviously depends how opinion goes in the interim - but Sean’s forecasts seem good for Cornwall, although I think who the Lib Dem candidate in SE Cornwall is may be crucial to whether it is a tight fight or a relatively easy LD hold. The Tories were slaughtered in the Caradon District elections in May, so I wouldn’t be too optimistic if I were Sheryll Murray! Newquay’s politics are always a bit of a mystery, and they have quite a transient electorate, but I do think the result in that seat will turn on the situation in Newquay - I think that St Austell and the clay vollages will remain solid for Stephen Gilbert, who has become quite well known as a former Councillor in that area.
In Devon, I think Adrian (Sanders, without the ‘u’ btw) is safer than Sean gives credit for - I don’t think Marcus should get his hopes up too high. Torridge and West may be a closer thing - although I think Geoffrey Cox seems well dug-in and has the ear of the local media (that voice of his, btw, where on earth does it come from? The centre of the earth, it always sounds!) Yes, Totnes will be interesting - has Steen been reselected yet again?? I think Sean probably has it right for the other seats - I would rather tell a different story in the seats in the East of the County, but I would risk over optimism and being accused of astroturfing or something uncomfortable.
In Somerset, I back both LD MPs to hang on - Dvid Heath and Jeremy Browne, along with David Laws. However, I just have a slight fancy that Wells might fall to Tessa Munt (her second go) after about 6 elections a a marginal where it has remained the blue side of the line.
61 That’s a sore point! The house was on an acre of land, on a hill overlooking Salcombe Estuary. It had outstanding views, partly spoiled by a wartime gasometer (long since dismantled). She sold about a quarter of an acre to developers in 1976 for £13,000, and the rest of the house for £39,000 in 1980. I am reliably informed that the house is now worth well over £1m, such is the level of property prices in Salcombe. I revisited the town on holiday, four years ago, and while it was pretty upmarket in the Seventies, it’s now like Chelsea by the Sea.
I’ve never stayed at Hope Cove, though I have walked there and back across Bolt Head and Bolberry Down.
62 I think Frank Field is in the wrong party, it is so obvious that he shares many of the tories views on some of the most important longterm areas of policy making such as Pensions and taxation, even dare i say it Europe. Field gives the impression he cannot stand Brown plus he thinks the PM is moving in the wrong direction. Field should defect a few days before the local elections!
58 - possibly - but we’ll see where the tides are at the next election. I’m not convinced in Lib Dem v Tory battles that there is much of tide against the Lib Dems unlike as there is in Lab v Tory battles (or indeed Lab v Lib Dem battles).
FWIW - I think Browne is rock solid in Taunton and Heath (like Heathcote-Amory) will be much more difficult to shift than the figures suggest.
I’m no expert on Cornwall but from all reports it has a distinct Celtic feel which so far has been sceptical of Cameron’s charms - so the tide may continue to be against the Tories in that county.
54.
I consider Obama a “cert” to win New Hampshire and others and would not back against him getting the Democratic nomination to run for President.
I reckon he is unstoppable and my £11,000 to win £8,000 next wekk is looking good.
New Hampshire: January 8th — The largest field operation in the state has made nearly 1.6 million phone calls and knocked on 330,000 doors. Our campaign has been endorsed by both Democratic US Representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter, and the latest Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll puts us in the lead.
Nevada: January 19th — We have the biggest organization with 11 field offices and more than 50 staff; we’re gaining strength every day.
South Carolina: January 26th — Former Democratic chairman Donald Fowler praised our 55 staff members in 11 offices for running “the most methodical voter-canvassing project I have ever seen in South Carolina.”
22 other states: February 5th — We have 32 offices open in 17 states, including states like Alaska, Utah, and Alabama where we’re the only campaign up and running with a serious organization.
66 — I think it’d be a smart move for Cameron to invite Field into the cabinet as Sec of State for DWP and allow him to remain as an independent labour
65
Gutted!!
Bolt Head is fascinating an old RAF camp, the airfield on the clff top, taking off and landing must have been amazing.
The bunker there was the Regional Seat of Government during the cold war.
Is it possible that Sean Fear should produce an article, and then head it “FOCUS on…”?
But then, I always thought his right-wing protestations were but camouflage in order to convince the Tory rank and file, in order to get himself a safe seat. How is the “Fear for Exeter” campaign doing these days, Sean? Give up on the Conservatives, Sean, and recognise reality! You are a Lib Dem at heart!
In passing, it looks as though they have pretty well given up on the Tories in Welwyn, eh? Enormous swing to Lib Dems there (though nobody has so far been able to tell me what it is). No matter. “Enormous swing to Lib Dems” will do very nicely.
Come on, Ave07: Lib Dems winning everywhere…… You know you want to say it…..
38 and following:
Socrates, it’s a Protestant distinction, and as an RC I speak as an outsider but I gathered from from my mostly Protestant relatives, some even in Oklahoma ( I’m nearly ashamed to say it but a couple of first cousins went to Oral Robert’s University) my understanding of US Evangelicalism was than it was about preaching the gospel in the US to mostly already baptised/self identified Christians who through that personal experience of Jesus would be be Born Again. Thus Born-Again Christians rather than converts to Christianity. Most Evangelicals would recognise this personal conversion or re-birth as part of their experience.
71 - I like “Fear for Exeter” which has an bit of the “Breed for Cornwall” ring to it. Bradshaw had a very good boundary review in Exeter (getting rid of strongly Conservative Topsham in particular). Combined with a strong Lib Dem and weak Tory performance in 2005 which means he faces a split opposition, I cannot see Exeter changing hands short of a landslide now.
71 The swing to the Lib Dems was 24%. Personally, given the circumstances, I’m surprised the Conservatives managed to hold it.
OT. Is Fred Thompson in with a chance of winning the next Republican primary?
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDgzYzc3YTJhZDgxMWI2ZTliZTBkMmIwZjE1MTZlM2M=
Unfortunately no Wyoming betting markets up though!
69. Surely if Cameron wins the next election the first thing he *won’t* be doing will be inviting Labour peeps into the Cabinet. If he is forming a government he will have had an incredibly good night at the polls (considering the swing needed) and this will show an outright rejection of Labour.
74 SeanF - I’m almost afraid to ask, but what was the serious crime in question?
My impression of Welwyn is that parking on a double yellow line counts as a serious offence.
71/73 Exeter (where I went to university) is a seat I’d enjoy contesting, if I ever had the opportunity. Apart from a foul 1960s shopping precinct, it’s got rather a fine city centre, together with a lot of fine housing, and is surrounded by lovely countryside.
Curtains for Clinton next week?
Obama, Clinton Face Crucial Test
By BETH FOUHY – 6 hours ago
MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) — Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton — welcome to New Hampshire, where you each face the biggest test of your political lives.
Obama, whose victory in Iowa on Thursday transformed him into a political giant slayer, faces five days of heightened scrutiny before the state’s Jan. 8 primary amid the klieg lights of sudden superstardom.
Clinton, who just weeks ago was the undisputed Democratic front-runner, must use those same five days to rebound from a crippling loss in Iowa in order to prevent her candidacy from imploding.
“New Hampshire is the last chance for someone who loses Iowa,” said Andrew Smith, polling director for the University of New Hampshire. “You lose in Iowa and you lose New Hampshire, it’s done. You go home.”
77 Material was allegedly found on his computer that shouldn’t have been there.
So let me see if I have got this right. When we make anti-american remarks thats bad, cos americans are all nice people really, but when they make anti-european remarks it is a fair legitimate statement to make cos Europeans really do suck?
I know Americans love the UK, I mean they’ve cut the number of “Limey” remarks a bit…
78 - Princesshay? It was knocked down and rebuilt a little while ago, Sean. Quite nice now.
Sean
Excellent as usual, I was in Somerset at Xmas time and know the area well. Is Somerton and Frome the most consistently marginal seat in the country? IIRC 3 consecutive 3 figure majorities for the Lib Dems?
Your comment about the by-election ex-candidate being accused of a serious offence will I hope put a stop to the breathless Cleggies who seemed to be hailing it earlier as a major breakthrough…amazing the tories weren’t thrashed really, single local by-election results hardly ever point up much about the national picture.
82 That’s good news. I last visited Exeter 3 years ago, but only to have dinner with a friend in the evening, so I didn’t get the chance to look around the centre.
84 - Sadly, it isn’t that uncommon a crime though (and statistically commonest amongst the very groups demographically most likely to be councillors of all parties). People tend to be quite forgiving of the party in such circumstances as it is clearly not the party’s fault. So it may account for some of the swing but presumably not the whole swing? Agreed that people shouldn’t read too much into a very small council election though, cheering though it no doubt is for Lib Dems in that locality.
81 Oh, right. I assume he’d been furtively writing Focus leaflets, but will pry no further.
My daughter was at Exeter Uni so I got to go there a few times. It’s a place everybody seems to like. Good luck if you do get to contest it, although I suspect Mr Bradshaw is well ensconced now.
85 - More recent than that, Sean. I think it was probably in the process of being demolished then but the new Princesshay opened last year and has improved the look of the area as well as extending central Exeter’s range of shops beyond the dreary chains. The High Street itself remains nothing to write home about, although no worse than many others. Debenhams remains although Debenhams have moved out - I think Waitrose are moving in and may demolish the hideous tower or may not.
88 There are some very fine and ancient churches in the High Street, though, as well as the Guildhall. The Cathedral and Square are splendid, and streets like Southernhay are impressive.
Very good article as always Sean , St Austell and Newquay on R and T figures is 5,700 LibDem majority not highly marginal as Anthony Wells’ figures . My calculations would put it much closer to R and T than Anthony .
Re Welwyn byelection , the circumstances behind the byelection may exclaim the fall in support of Shameron’s candidate but not the substantial improvement in the Cleggy candidate .
90 Oops explain not exclaim
85 You don’t have to go there - there’s a webcam!
http://www.exeter.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=2856
With lapsed time photography of the demolition, the build, and the last year. Exeter obviously very proud!
Another really good article. And fair incisive analysis, not cluttered by his own hopes. (In contrast to Martin Day.)
I think Cornwall could be trickier for the LDs, although Goldsworthy will be safe, I believe. In Torbay it depends on whether the Tories screw up the council as they, and the LDs, have in the past. I would say Sanders is in trouble as I am not aware of any cock-ups by the council at the moment.
Providing the Tories run a serious campaign in N Devon, Nick Harvey could be a goner, especially as he is no-longer anti-Europe.
I would not take Bath for granted as staying LD. However, I am pretty sure that Jeremy Browne will hang on. Taunton deserve a good MP after two pretty dreadful ones. I would expect this seat to have the largest Tory to LD swing next time (along with possibly Eastleigh).
Even if the LDs do really badly, I’d expect the odd surprise in the West Country. Back in 1992, the LDs gained four in this region.
Sean, excellent analysis. I think it worth mentioning though, that Rallings & Thrasher (based in Plymouth) give St Austell & Newquay a Lib Dem majority of over 5000 (where as Anthony Wells gives it 680). On their figures, Truro & Falmouth is the more marginal seat with a Lib Dem majority of around 3000. I don’t know which set of figures will prove to be more accurate, but having such vastly different projected majories must add uncertainty when trying to predict outcomes.
Back to the US…
The regular bookies are creeping tentatively out of their shells and Obama is now generally 4/6 for NH. Ladbrokes are shorter, but of course they have the advantage of Shady’s advice and he has the advantage of being a PB regular. Maybe Mike shouild charge him. Then again, Ladbrokes are sponsoring the Party, so not just yet.
Paddy Power have got a bit bold and priced up Michigan and one or two other States. Hard to know what to make of the prices, especially as the dust has hardly settled from the Iowa earthquakes.
McCain now big odds on for NH.
95. Thanks Peter. We have just taken our biggest bet of the campaign so far. £20k on Obama at 9/4 for the presidency.
We are now 15/8.
SBS - let’s say that the polls are telling the truth and the Lib Dems have lost a quarter of their support to the Conservatives. How come then that all their seats are apparently safe or likely to have swings towards them? In 2005 against a non resurgent Conservative Party, yes but today?
re 37 is there any constitutional impediment to Schwarzenegger becoming VP other than that he couldn’t succeed to the presidency if necessary? I can’t seem to find any impediment to him fulfilling all the other duties of VP.
From Reuters… Bill has been playing up Hillary as the comeback kid, but had one interesting admission…
“Bill Clinton did express one concern about the shortened time frame for campaigning in New Hampshire. New Hampshire’s primary is next Tuesday, January 8– just five days after the Iowa caucuses.
“I just wish we had ten days instead of five,” Clinton said.”
As much as you have to take his comments with a pinch of salt, I think this might actually be a genuine advantage for Obama at the moment. A longer period between Iowa/ New Hampshire could have seen him undone with all the focus on him after last night, + a loss of the momentum he currently has. Any thoughts?
Also, there seems to be quite a lot of frenzied backing of Obama at the moment, but in my view a loss in New Hampshire (where the polling does look neck and neck) would be a bad blow and this is a risk that has to be borne in mind. Clinton is nowhere near finished yet.
Ha… I hadn’t read Shadsy’s comment (96) before I posted that there is “frenzied backing” for Obama…
96 9/4 eh? Sounds about right. Personally I wouldn’t take much shorter. Too much room for mishaps on the way.
Btw, we will be having a collection at the Party, proceeds to go towards the rehabilitation of those who passed on the 50/1 when Mike first flagged it. Perhaps you can help take the hat round.
99 Whilst I agree Clinton is far from finished, John, it’s the next poll out that is the worry for her. I’ll be surprised if Obama is not now ahead.
Yes, the short time frame now plays to his advantage. You know yourself that when you are winning, the next match can’t come quick enough.
Simple, Ted (97). Because, as the last local government elections showed, the Liberal Democrat vote held up, or even improved, in most of the seats where they held them or were seriously challenging.
National polls are not very relevant where Lib Dem seats are concerned.
Good article as usual. Interesting to see how little genuine local info about the SW counties there is in the comments, though - just a lot of guesswork and projected prejudices mostly. In an area where local factors can be very important, this is a pity.
98. The XIIth amendment “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of president shall be eligible to that of vice president of the United States…”
Interestingly, there is thought to be no constitutional impediment, despite the XXIInd amendment, for a former President from being elected as VP, since the amendment states that “No person shall be *elected* to the office of the President more than twice…”
So Bill could be Hillary’s Veep, and if necessary could succeed to the Presidency….
95 Peter the Punter
See that Paddy Power have Hillary at 1/4 to win Michigan. Since she is the only candidate running there, how can she lose ? would it have to be a write in campaign for Obama ?
97 Ted The tories have been resurgent in this part of the world since 1996, with a brief interlude of 2003 - 4 when the swing moved back towards LDs. I suppose it is also possible to suggest that because of the strong swing against Labour from the left in 2005, that LDs here in SW gained more than Cons, and therefore achieved a slight consequent swing from the Tory side. That certainly happened in East Devon.
OT, but is anyone else having trouble seeing the post numberings? I’m using Internet Explorer, btw.
06 Dunno. If there is only one possible winner, the legality of PP’s book is questionable.
107 & 103 You may both be right, but if so then if polls are correct the Lib Dem’s expect no advances as they cannot have much support anywhere but where they already hold their seats.
09 The only names on the ballot are Clinton, Dodd, Gravel and Kucinich. Dodd and Gravel have pulled out. Not sure about Kucinich so strictly speaking it could be a two horse race absent write -ins
Same applies to Florida as well I think, where they have Hillary at 1/2…
93 SBS Nick Harvey situation has already been taken on board by electorate. Big swing against him relatively in 2001 - with a smaller compensating swing back in 2005. Btw he was not anti-Europe previously, merely not a believer in “fortress Europe”. Some of his more phobic electorate, of course, misunderstood what he meant (the cynic in me wonders whether a deliberate ploy here?)
I would like to back up the comments of Tim 13, re Torbay.
I admit that most of my knowledge (impressions?) comes from the excellent
westphalia-on-sea.blogspot.com
but it does seem to me that Charlie Windsor is on a fair old hiding to nothing. Principally because of the disaster represented by the elected mayor, who was - if you remember - promoted by none other than Charlie Windsor himself, in an attempt to knock at the Liberal Democrats.
Similarly in Torbay.
I fear that in the very same way, Our Very Own Marcus, manipulating the creation of a directly elected mayorality, and then getting a creature after his own heart elected with a very small number of votes, has created a fair old Frankenstein, from which the Tories in Torbay will never recover.
Tough!
Steven Whaley @ 108 re partly invisible numbers — I think our host is using a shiny, new style sheet with a new typeface. Unfortunately, this has thrown the spacing out.
108,114 — and the links to the right are also affected.
97 The polls do not actually show that LibDems have lost a quarter of their votes in 2005 to the Conservatives . The pollsters that compare vote in 2005 to voting intention now Comres , Populus , ICM and sometimes Mori have been recently showing a net loss of around 1/7th of the LibDem voters in 2005 to the Conservatives .
It seems to be only this thread - though Mike said something on last nights thread about slimming down the site to speed it up, don’t know whether whatever he did then has affected this evenings thread.
Sean: Excellent article. My thoughts:
First, Somerset North and Somerset North East should have been in your ‘Avon’ section…
Second, you say “Somerset North East has been converted into a notional Conservative seat, and it is very hard to see its incumbent Labour MP holding on to it.” That I presume means you havent had the pleasure of seeing Jacob Rees Mogg in action. The Labour MP, Dan Norris, is a smug, arrogant and pretty annoying character. There are only a few people in the world that could lose to him, and - amazingly - the Tories managed to select one of them as their candidate. There is a sizeable Lib Dem vote in NE Somerset, and many of them will put on “nose-pegs” to vote grudgingly for Norris just to avoid JR Mogg as their MP.
Third, Bristol North West is another 3-way marginal like Filton & Bradley Stoke. Both Labour and Tory are London carpet-bagging wannabes (the Labour candidate with plenty of history, apparently), while the Lib Dem is local. Could go any way.
Ted: “SBS - let’s say that the polls are telling the truth and the Lib Dems have lost a quarter of their support to the Conservatives. How come then that all their seats are apparently safe or likely to have swings towards them?” In 1997 the LDs lost votes but more than doubled their number of MPs. Under FPTP it’s not how many you get, but where you get them.
What will the move to Unitary in Cornwall mean for the total number of councillors?
Sean Fear:
Brilliant analysis.
Are you keeping a running tally of your predicted Con Gains by the way? Be nice to see how the seat changes are stacking up for a “bottom-up” election prediction for 2009/2010!!
I make it (on your figures here) +3 Con (notional) plus +8 Con (probable) - total of +11 Con seats - making it Con 25 Lib Dem 11 Lab 5 - roughly right if Cameron does well on the night, no??
Only bone of contention for me is Cornwall South-East. This is the most “English” of the Cornish seats with many retirees from the home counties and a retiring Lib-Dem MP.
True, the Lib-Dem MP has a majority of 6,500, but there are 2,600 UKIP votes to squeeze (maybe 50% to Cameron?) and much of the Liberal vote is personal (maybe 4%, or 2,000 votes?) Their will definitely be a Lab-to-Con swing too. I’d consider this a marginal acting like a seat with
118. MBoy.
You forget how the posters of the previous Conservative candidate; “Chris Watt” were regularly defaced in the 2001 and 2005 election campaigns.
The insertion of a “T” before his surname on said posters did not do his image to passing motorists much good.
11 On the basis that one can’t lose, I’ve filled my boots with Paddy Power’s 1-2 on Hillary in Florida.
Not sure what to do now - I’ve backed Hillary big time to win the Presidency outright and both McCain & Huckabee, also in big numbers, to win both the GOP nomination and the Presidency.
As yet I’ve had nothing on Obama or Giuliani.
Tempted to take the hit on Hillary and sell my bets on Huck at a good profit - any views?
97 - Ted, before you trash what I say, you should note that my analysis is more pessimistic from a LD point of view than Sean’s (re: Torbay, N Devon, Cornwall, Bath etc). Presumably you also think Sean has it wrong too. I did not say all the seats were safe. You must have dreamt that.
Re: Nick Harvey and Europe. He voted against Maastricht (only LD to do so). Back in 1993 this put him in the same lobby at Tony Benn, IDS, Liam Fox…
Next year will be agreat test in Cornwall, as well as Wilts and Shropshire, as the creation of new Unitary Authorities means elections will take place next May. They will also be re-warded. Northumberland and Durham will elect new shadow UAs this May and Cheshire will report on Jan 12….
Lots fewer Councillors so fewer snouts in the local government trough….
55. Yes, looking at the figures he did owe more to his lead among Independents. But the fact he still lead among Democrats was important (although apparently overplayed by the MSNBC coverage). I wouldn’t concur with your conclusion though. Many people will register as Democrats to vote in a Democratic primary (especially this year, when the Republicans are perceived to be out the race) and still identify as Independents in polls. Don’t think that Independent means moderates. Most extreme libertarians identify as Independents (hence Ron Paul’s high scoring among this group), as do many Conservatives and Liberals sick of partisan bickering.
82. Most “anti-European” comments on here are actually criticising the EU elite or a particular government. Reasoned criticism of the US government does not really count as anti-Americanism, stereotyping of the American people does.
56. I’m British living in Chicago. I’ve spent a lot of time in the US and about half my friends are American.
re 117. Hopefully the formatting is back to normal.
125 Thanks Socrates.
The circumstances of the Welwyn resignation were dutifully informed to the electorate.
One must congratulate the LIberal Democrats on a very intensive campaign which saw something like seventeen (yes 17) different leaflets, including a christmas card, go through letterboxes.
This was accompanied by extensive canvassing.
We await the result in May with interest.
re 126 it is. I wondered whether it was me or the type really was bigger.
122 My response is to #111, not #11 - if this Paddy Power bet works it’s effectively free money isn’t it?
It is worth noting that historically, the Lib Dems have always performed poorly in the SW whenever there has been a Conservative revival. In the last two occasions that the Conservatives have won a General Election from opposition, in 1970 and 1979, the Tories performed very strongly in the SW, often at the Lib Dems expense.
With this in mind, I think the Tories performance against the Lib Dems will depend on whether the Tories are able to form only a minority government or win a majority at the next general election. If the Tories win a majority, or a ‘strong’ minority (over 300+ seats) the more likely that seats such as North Devon, Truro, etc, will fall into their hands.
WRT Devon, I’ll stick my neck out and predict that the Tories will easily retain all the seats they hold now, including the new Central Devon seat. I also believe that they will gain Torbay. North Devon IMO represents a better prospect than Newton Abbott, I think if there is a Tory majority government North Devon could fall, but its not a done deal, though Philip Milton is probably a far more effective candidate than the hapless Orlando Fraser ever was. I agree with Sean regarding the two Plymouth seats and Exeter, Bradshaw will be saved by the boundary changes, though I think his majority will get cut by a large margin as the local Tories, after looking like they were about to fall off a cliff in 2004, finally seem to have turned the corner and have doubled their council representation in the last couple of years.
As far as Cornwall goes, there is scope for some Tory improvement in Truro and Falmouth, St. Austell and Newquay, South East Cornwall and North Cornwall, what with the loss of incumbency in the first three plus general dissatisfaction over the Cornwall Unitary Council. The Lib Dems are however strong here and have an effective organisation. I don’t think the Lib Dems will sweep the County again, especially against the backdrop of a poor national performance, but they could easily limit the Tories to just one or two gains, or perhaps even none!
95.
Interesting stats for N.H. and a well written “snapshot”
New Hampshire has had a knack for knocking Iowa winners back down to earth.
Year Party Iowa winner New Hampshire winner
2000 Republican George W. Bush John McCain
1996 Republican Bob Dole Pat Buchanan
1988 Democratic Dick Gephardt Michael Dukakis
1988 Republican Bob Dole George Bush
1984 Democratic Walter Mondale Gary Hart
SNAPSHOT OF THE RACE
New Englander Mitt Romney, long the front-runner, has lost ground to John McCain, the 2000 winner. Mike Huckabee hopes to capitalize on his Iowa win. Rudy Giuliani has shifted resources to Florida.
Hillary Rodham Clinton has the backing of state Democratic leaders and a stout organization, but independents could boost Iowa victor Barack Obama. John Edwards has invested more resources here than he did in 2004
Interesting comments re Exeter. I know the city well - my then girlfriend was at Uni there. Got friends in Devon etc.
I’ve always thought it should be more beautiful than it is: it’s got a magnificent cathedral, there is the odd nice street, and some lovely old buildings - yet much of the centre is a rather bleak 50s redbrick wasteland, only now being improved.
Why? Coz the Nazis flattened it. Exeter used to be one of the great medieval cities of England. In 1942 Goring deliberately targetted it, and other towns, for its historic beauty.
The Nazis gloated on the radio, the night after the Exeter raids: ‘We have chosen as targets the most beautiful places in England. Exeter was a jewel. We have destroyed it’.
F***ing krauts.
Sorry. That does not apply to the modern generation of Germans, who are some of the nicest, most thoughtful people you could hope to meet.
Let’s be fair, Dresden was famed for it’s beautiful architecture as well.
118 but in 1997 the Conservatives really did lose votes. Lib Dems just didn’t do as badly so they gained seats because the Tory vote fell away either by transfer to them or Labour or by not voting (overall votes down 2.3 million)
Take a seat where Labour didn’t do that well in 1997, Taunton : 1992 Lib Dems 26,240 votes, 1997 Lib Dems 26,064. 200 fewer votes for Lib Dems. Labour votes up by about 100. So on absolute vote terms no real difference for Lib Dems or Labour from 1992. But Conservatives lost just under 6,000 votes. Lib Dem win.
2001 a bit of a Conservative recovery, their absolute votes only down 600 or so but Jackie Ballard lost nearly 3,300 - Cons win but by 235 votes.
2004 Conservative votes up by 2,160 or so but Lib Dems recover and their votes up by 2,730. Lib Dem win back.
Total votes cast for Lib Dems though in all past three elections aren’t as many as they got in 1992 but they won the seat two times out of three.
Now if the polls are right (and ignoring findings that Lib Dems are losing proportionally more votes in the South than the North) we could probably say that of Jeremy Browne’s 26,000 voters potentially 25% (7,500) could be considering voting Tory - but he’s managed to build a bit of loyalty so 50% of them stay with him. Possibly a bit of a squeeze on Labour though after 2005 not a lot left I would reckon for Lib Dems to take in excess of Labour to Conservative movers. Polls say almost all Tory voters intend to vote Tory. Let’s be generous and say he holds onto around 26,000 votes though by really squeezing Labour. Tories would still get 3,750 ex Lib Dems and a reasonable 3,000 majority.
Not saying it will happen but “We won more seats in 1997 though our votes dropped” was because relative to the Conservatives you did better. Indications in current polls are that relative to Tories AND Labour the Lib Dems will do worse. Labour on 32% means they have lost nett about 12% of their support. Lib Dems on 18% means a loss of over 20% of theirs.
I only hope Nick Clegg isn’t as “comfortable” as many Lib Dem posters here seem to be.
134. Yeah, but Dresden - controversial as it was - came a long time after Exeter.
The bombing of Exeter was part of a deliberate Nazi policy of obliterating beautiful cities - the so-called Baedeker raids.
Wiki:
“The Baedeker raids were conducted by the German Luftwaffe Luftflotte 3 in two periods between April and June 1942. They targeted relatively unimportant strategically but picturesque cities in England. The cities were reputedly selected from the German Baedeker Tourist Guide to Britain, meeting the criterion of having been awarded three stars, hence the English name for the raids. Baron Gustav Braun von Sturm, a German propagandist is reported to have said on 24 April 1942 following the first attack, “We shall go out and bomb every building in Britain marked with three stars in the Baedeker Guide.”"
There is something peculiarly evil and desolate about this. The deliberate destruction of beauty and history - it’s like trying to erase someone’s memory and identity.
Having said that the Germans certainly reaped the whirlwind, having sown the wind. So many German cities are ugly post-war toilets - because they were flattened by us, in retaliation.
‘it’s like trying to erase someone’s memory and identity’
Indeed. Today’s euro-imperialists would no doubt heartily approve.
MBoy, thanks for the information about the three seats. Personally, I’ve always found Jacob Rees Mogg to be someone born about 100 years out of his time, rather than someone who is unpleasant
137 Do you mean Europhiles, Peter?
If you do, you are definitely referring to me, yet I can assure you I wish to erase nobody’s memory and identity; nor do I wish to destroy anybody’s culture, or sense of worth, or indeed anything of beauty or merit, in this country, Europe or elsewhere.
137 indeed.
Back on the US, does anyone know when the next New Hampshire poll is? Could be a massively important one..
138. Agreed. From what I’ve seen of JRMogg (on telly) he has managed the singular achievement of out-fogeying his father, who was already a man born 200 years too late.
He seems relatively harmless, that aside.
His sister Annunziata is a hotty though (also judging by her appearance on telly, I don’t move in High Tory circles).
Watching the faster rebuilding of Dresden’s historic heritage now (2 or 3 years ago), it is very good, IMO, that they have chosen to recreate theuir architectural treasures, rather than in the style of Exeter, or in a more extreme fashion, Plymouth! Won’t even enter an argument with you Sean!
re 141. My guess is that we will some some NH surveys tomorrow.
144 Would the fieldwork not have taken place before yesterday’s elections, Mike?
The bombing of Exeter was in direct retaliation to the bombing of ancient Hanseatic port of Lubeck, “more like a firelighter than a city”, according to Bomber Harris..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_L%C3%BCbeck_in_World_War_II
Until this time the Germans had restricted their campaign to strategic targets…
Churchill did everything he could to escalate and intensify the War, and even had to be restrained by his generals from using poison gas and Anthrax on German civilians…
A bastard of the first order…
143. I’m not looking for an argument! (unless there is an ex-member of the 1940s Luftwaffe on site) Just shooting the breeze of a lazy Friday evening. Have finished a book. Christmas is over. Daughter in bed. Starting a new book in a week or two.
Am enjoying my between-time by vapourising on here…
Anyway you are quite right: Plymouth is indeed hideous. One of the best things, for me, of the Thatcherite Renaissance of Britain, has been the vast improvement in British urban architecture. We used to build impressive cityscapes; at last we are doing it again.
145. Now you ARE looking foran argument. I shall rise loftily above.
We can forget that ghastly period 1950-1980.
141. Latest NH poll out today, but it predates Iowa…
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1412
35- socrates- pleased that you have the courage to say that you have found universal truths, and that it comes from the mouths of our 2 famous seans. Well done.
80 If it was a certainty that a loss in both Iowa and NH was the end of it, Bill Clinton would not have become president.
136- honestly sometimes seanT you are a zenophopbic pillock of the worst kind. The rest of the time you are simply a jabbering right wing baffoon who thinks they are some kind of literary genius.
151. Zenopophopbic?
Baffoon??
151. And you are simply an idiot all of the time
152- sorry typed too quickly but as you can guess this anti German WW2 trite really irritates.
154. Anti German trite?
150. Bill Clinton would not have become president period, but for…
(i) George H. W. Bush regurgitating his dinner into his Japanese host’s lap on TV..
(ii) Ross Perot running the most successful third-party insurgent campaign in 80 years…
152-155-and that smiley face winking to the (my) left really irritates
This site would be so,so much poorer without Sean T;I thoroughly enjoy his posts,and within reasons,when he goes into rant mode:when I get to my local tonight,I will metophorically raise my glass to you Sean,cheers and good health:wink:
150. Also, Clinton’s success despite failures in Iowa and NH were based on his position as an insurgent candidate. For the establishment candidate to lose both and still go on to win is, IMHO, a much more difficult task.
135 - I am certainly not complacent about any of these seats. In a LD meltdown (say 15% to the Tories 45%), I don’t think many would survive. In 1987 we had just Yeovil and Truro (when the Tories had 43% to an Alliance 23%. We did however gain four seats from the Tories down there despite a 1.5% LD to Tory swing nationally in 1992.
The south west is a hard call.
151 - seanT writes well and is always worth a read. We need his sort here.
157. Then my job is done! Tyson, you funny old socialist badger. Go make a shaving brush.
158. Cheers to you too!
I am in a very mellow mood tonight. I think my cold, which has lasted since Boxing Day, has finally started packing.
I am genuinely pleased about Obama, too. Would be great for America, and therefore the world, if he won.
151 the Christmas truce didn’t quite make it to the first week of the new year
146 oh dear, revisionist history time - never pleasant, and always wrong as it is predicated on the need to overturn the considered view. A great moment for you though as you can now join the exclusive JohnLoony ‘mad view of history’ club.
159 Chrisco - I entirely agree. You can’t compare ‘92 to this race in that way.
160. But in 1992 the Tories were on the defensive, whereas next time around that won’t be the case. The local Tory troops are going to be highly motivated too - don’t underestimate the extent to which they loathe the Lib Dems as Labour’s puppets.
The biggest cheers of the night are going to be when Lib Dem incumbents lose their seats - only defeated cabinet ministers may get a louder roar.
146. RodCrosby
“Churchill did everything he could to escalate and intensify the War, and even had to be restrained by his generals from using poison gas and Anthrax on German civilians…
A bastard of the first order… ”
I think calling the man who has been voted the Greatest Britain of all time and saw the danger from Nazi Germany years before anyone else a “bastard” is a little over the top. As is your statement that he tried to “escalate and intensify” the war.
This post does you no credit whatsoever.
Care to retract your statement?
163. I’m more in the Carlyle club, in that “History is the distillation of rumour…”
165 - I still don’t get the “puppet” thing, no matter how many times it has been repeated over the last 10 years. Doesn’t wash. The Tories have propped up Labour often enough when push has come to shove.
And if you think the biggest cheers should be for defeating LD incumbents, then your party’s priorities are wrong. The LDs and Tories share a common foe…
BRIAN: Brothers! Brothers! We should be struggling together!
FRANCIS: We are! Ohh.
BRIAN: We mustn’t fight each other! Surely we should be united against the common enemy!
EVERYONE: The Judean People’s Front?!
BRIAN: No, no! The Romans!
151. Tyson.
I think that’s a bit over the top old chap. If you read SeanTs post at 133 he caveats his tongue-in-cheek comments quite carefully.
What is about Friday night? Do all the usually sane posters get pissed before posting or what?!
(hypocrite warning…
)
166. Don’t be daft… there’s so much you don’t know, and probably don’t want to know..
Who said, in 1938…”I have always said that I hoped if Great Britain were beaten in a war we should find a Hitler who would lead us back to our rightful place among nations” ?
Clue: he smoked a fat cigar…
168. Try campaigning in the SW and you will find that your views are wholly at variance with reality. Labour and the Lib Dems work hand in glove in many constituencies and are united in seeing the Tories as the common enemy. As a result the Tories and Lib Dems have very little common ground.
You can say this ‘doesn’t wash’ as much as you like, but that’s how people feel, and it’s a feeling based on real experiences.
166 - being called the Greatest Britain (sic) of all time does not necessarily mean he is beyond reproach. Princess Diana came third.
Is any criticism allowed of the top 10 Britons. I for one think Brunel smoked far too many cigars, and is a poor example to our young.
And Lord of the Rings is apparently the greatest book of all time (hehehehehe!).
166. Churchill is well known for being a bit bloodthirsty, and rod is well known for being a reliable source. I seem to remember a quote of Churchills saying something along the lines of “poison gas is an inhumane and terrible weapon suitable only for use on arabs.”
170. Yes yes, very clever. We can all find the odd out of context quote and use it to make someone who can’t answer back look foolish. There is a rather more grown up approach to doing history though.
171 - fair point. I misunderstood and thought you were talking at a national rather than local level. Not sure in which districts there are Lib / Lab regimes though. Do Labour even run local election candidates in the rural SW?
175. It’s less a case of formal cooperation at local government level, more of deep collusion between the party machines at GE time - including ‘lending’ each other activists and resources, and running essentially paper candidates.
Hang on in there Rod - Churchill is one of the most overrated politicians in history.
40 years of moderate sucess (and not a little abject failure) then 18 months when he spoke for the country then 14 years of very average activity when he failed to make the tough decisions the country needed in the aftermath of war, but instead lived in a haze of romaticism about Britain’s role in the world
It is not untypical that the Chamberlain government fell because of the mismangement of the First Lord of the Admiralty’s campaign in Norway - i.e. Churchill. That he became leader is more a reflection on the poor calibre of the Tory front bench in 1940
Do we really think that we needed Churchil’s windy rhetoric to get us to fight Nazi Germany. That is insult to my parents, both of who volunteered before they were called up
160 SBs didn’t mean my earlier post to be accusative of yours but to be question about the automatic response of many Lib Dem posters “well we will hold seat X because…”. Fully accept you are more realistic. Just don’t think that many Lib Dems have realised that the very success of getting to 62 seats means that the party is now more subject to the normal flows of public opinion. The Lib Dems haven’t had two leadership elections in two years because their MPs think the party is doing OK.
176 - my sole experience of SW campaigning was a week in N Devon back in 1991 (!). It wasn’t case of Labour colluding with the LDs. Labour just didn’t exist there.
178 - fair dos. I cannot see anything other than a net loss of seats for the LDs in the SW next time, even if the LDs do very well nationally (of which I can only dream!). But Browne in Taunton would I think be one of the last to go. Good local results there too.
N Devon DC was historically controlled by Indies (prob Tories) and I think the LD took it in 1991. The Tories have just taken it for the first time ever, I believe. Doesn’t look good.
See from Lib dem Voice that Mr Smithson has recognised their need for expert help and become a regular contributor
http://www.libdemvoice.org/1911-1911.html
179. There are a number of similar seats. What often happens is that the no-hope Labour candidate runs a non-campaign and spends all his time (along with whatever residual activists he has) working for a better-placed Labour candidate in a neighbouring seat. In return, the Lib Dems in the neighbouring seat tend to make a rather limited ‘effort’ too.
I was told (but haven’t checked) that the Lib Dem candidate in Dorset West got the greatest number of votes of any of the unsuccessful parliamentary candidates at the last election. Over 42,000 votes, and nothing to show for it.
183 - Dorset West LD was Justine McGuinness, lately of McCann’s employment, and she got 22,302.
182, Lars, old chap, that happens everywhere, and is rarely organised. I don’t suppose that the Tories in, say, Bermondsey, were running flat out to win the seat last time. Quite rightly, and very sensibly, they decamped to where they could do more use in more marginal and winnable seats. Now, do you think that in doing so they were acting in collusion with the Lib Dems or Labour?
182 You mean like Bristol where the Conservatives work together with Labour against the LibDems ?
184 - The losing Tories in Somerton and Frome, and Taunton both got more.
184 Sorry, SBS! 22,000, not 42,000, obviously.
lars 177 etc Unlike SBS, I have had constant SW campaigning experience over the last 20 years or so. And I can assure you that at no time have I seen any cooperation between LDs and Labour. As I have said many times on here, many voters are “anti-Tory”, and as parties we will both tap into that rich seam. Such movements as GROT - Get Rid Of Them - under Billy Bragg’s leadership, tried to harness this tactical voting in the sort of way you suggest. But AFAIK, this never took off on a wide scale, and I can only conclude you prefer conspiracy theory to the reality described by SBS, Tressage and others, that outside the cities and certain other very limited areas, the Labour Party has disappeared as a fighting force in the SW.
180 SBS Yes, N Devon DC fully Lib Dem controlled from 1991, but minority control from 1987. I worked there from 1987 till 1998. The LD former Council leader had a great way of informal coalition building which enabled them to hold on much longer than many “ruling groups” do.
But that, Iars (76 & 82) is just the Tory interpretation of what they see. I don’t think it is collusion at all between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. It is more a matter of internal organisation: Liberal Democrats head towards seats which they think are winnable; and presumably Labour likewise. And where Tories are predominant - which is in most of the South West - there does tend to be some polarisation of anti-Tory effort.
This is also known as targeting.
It is what happens under the corrupt and anti-democratic FPTP system.
The problem for the Tories is that in the South West they have to “target” everywhere…. ie: they are always the incumbents or challengers, so always the victims of targeting.
The logical thing for the Tories to do is to fall in behind the move towards STV - which everybody thought was a good idea (even Tories), when practised in caucus-form in Iowa.
170. RodCrosby.
The only one showing up their ignorance is you.
I’ve read far more British and political history than you ever will.
Actually, to quote him in context, Churchill said;
“In his 1937 book “Great Contemporaries”, Churchill wrote: “One may dislike Hitler’s system and yet admire his patriotic achievements. If our country were defeated, I hope we should find a champion as admirable (as Hitler) to restore our courage and lead us back to our place among the nations”. Speaking in the House of Commons, in 1937, he said “I will not pretend that, if I had to choose between communism and Nazism, I would choose communism”. In the same work, Churchill expressed a hope that despite Hitler’s apparent dictatorial tendencies, he would use his power to rebuild Germany into a worthy member of the world community.”
And Churchill was a strident anti-communist.
You are looking back with the benefit of hindsight - before anyone knew their would be a war, or a holocaust - and misquoting Churchills speech, which is not much different from Chamberlains at the time - aimed at diplomatic rapprochement.
Churchill was a romanticist, an imperialist, very temperamental and a dreamer. But he was certainly not “a bastard of the first order” or a war criminal, or a genocidal maniac, or an anti-democrat etc.
You clearly think you are a very clever and insightful revisionist historian.
I, however, are just an egotistical pillock.
172. SBS - pedantry on pointing out spelling mistakes so immodestly makes me (sic)
177. John Wheatley.
Churchill is not without criticism, naturally, but he was pointing out the dangers of Nazi Germany years before anyone else. That made him fit to be leader in 1940 - and the right one.
Sorry about the fact that Churchill was Prime Minister was an “insult” to your parents.
The fact that Chamberlain was Prime Minister in 1938 - and failed to either rearm Britain adequately and to confront Hitler in Munich at a time when Nazi Germany was militarily very weak, thus failing to save of millions of lives - was an “insult” to mine.
185 Augustus Yes! Unlike me - very succinct.
For all those Obama fanciers, Boyles still went 9/4 for him to be president 5 minutes ago.
On the Michigan GOP race, the bookies may have it wrong. Looking at the most recent polls Huckabee is closest to Romney who leads very narrowly after the Huckabee surge really kicked off. These polls are a couple of weeks old but Huckabee has only gone on since then and the Iowa win will have done no harm.
One poll showed McCain in front but interestingly the other most recent ones showed him very much in 3rd hovvering around 10%. Guilaini had some early leads but they’ve gone recently though every chance of taking them back.
Its perfectluy possibel that even after a cack performamce in NH that Huckabee will be there or thereabouts. If you take the view that Romney will be firmly in decline after NH the 9/2 on Huckabee with PP’s looks useful and may not be available if Romney does go into freefall come next week.
Not saying Huckabee will win it but he has winning form now, even if it is Iowa and probably has Michigan as his next big target.
Possible bet/lay material?
O/T: more weirdness on the BNP front. Griffin has denounced the dissenting faction for allegedly consorting with neo-Nazi extremists, but reassures members that he is opposed to miscegenation mingling our “God-given differences”.
The police, meanwhile, have raided the home of one of the dissenting faction, who allege that the party entered the home of one of their (Broxtowe) councillors and removed a laptop with important council data. Non-BNP candidates should be able to have a field day merely quoting what the factions say about each other.
The Stormfront website is arguing fiercely about this, but cheering themselves up with a giant advert for Ron Paul’s campaign (states’ rights and all that). I wonder if he knows and approves?
193. Good spot Yokel, but I think Indy’s can also vote in Michigan and with no proper Democrat race, they will tend to go for McCain like in NH. He’s also getting strong local newspaper endorsements.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080103/OPINION01/801030375
I got on McCain for Michigan at 5.0 on Intrade a few months back.
On another note and I’ll put it on record here so you can call me a mug on Tuesday night….
I’ve backed Clinton to take NH.
195. Its a possible 3 way if Romney dies a death in NH. Guiliani is not to be ruled out as I think he’ll go fighting in MI despite the waiting strategy. Huckabee should do well, McCain is obviously a man on the move.
The problem is that neither of the latter two offer value at the moment..though you don’t have to worry about that because of your stake on McCain.
The latest NH poll has Romney up on McCain. Its done by Suffolk University which has been churning out some odd looking figures for the Democrats so it could possibly be taken with a pinch of salt but Romney has vbeen throwing a lot of fire on McCain and it could tell.
196. You’re not the only one backing her. Ladbrokes appear to have suspended the generous 15/8 they were offering on her for NH.
Sorry, neither Guiliani or McCain offer value.
I still worry about McCain despite the fact I’m cheering him on at big odds.
191 nicely said. The best and most objective take I’ve seen was Brian Walden’s TV programme - he brilliantly showed that whatever faults of personality he might have had he truly deserved the epithet ‘great’.
So who is going to win tomorrows Wyoming Primary?
Total OT for Paul M. It appears that PP’s have eased Dalgleish for the Ireland job quite a lot, he was a short I think as 6/4 a couple of days ago, now 3.
Venables is now back as favourite with them as he is with ladbrokes though Victor Chandler disagree. I notice Brady is back on the agenda as well, with his odds tightening a bit from the 13/2 available a couple of days ago.
170
Let me guess… Lou Grade?
146 Yes, I see. It was Churchill who ordered the bombing of Warsaw, Rotterdam, and Belgrade.
“Do we really think that we needed Churchil’s windy rhetoric to get us to fight Nazi Germany”
Evidently. The easy thing to do in June 1940 would have been to sue for peace.
197: the big (and critical) unknown surely has to be the Florida situation, with the last polls all pre-Christmas. The next ones are going to be pretty telling - if Preacher Mike has zoomed ahead there too, Giuliani is in a whole world of trouble (he was only am average of +2 ahead in the last bundle, and those are 3 weeks old now).
With Huckabee quite probably coming into that off the back of a win in South Carolina, and fairly possibly from Michigan too, bad Florida polling would be very nasty for Giuliani now. Nevada is no gimme for him either - there are lots of Mormons there, nearly all of them registered Republicans, and if Romney wins New Hampshire before it……
204 and 205, I seem to be running into the sort of arguments that rage on the Conservative Democratic Alliance website.
201. Taking a stab, Romney, who has greater association with the place than anyone.
Re: 197 - I’m told by an American friend that Suffolk polls are not well regarded. She has a poor opinion of their methods. However for those who are interested, the Dem figures are Clinton 37%, Obama 25 and Edwards 15. 12% undecided.
They have the full data here. I can’t seem to find when the fieldwork was done but probably yesterday and the day before.
There’s also been a national poll (Rasmussen) which is quite interesting. It puts Giuliani up against Obama and Romney up against Obama. Obama beats G 47 to 37 and R 45 to 39. Fieldwork for this one was conducted on Jan 2 and 3.
The all-important post-Iowa polls will no doubt come tomorrow…
I should also point out that my American contact is quite a reliable source having worked on polling at Harvard. I’ll try and feed through opinion on other pollsters as and when it’s useful.
62 Outer or Inner Coldstone ?
62 Outer or Inner Coldstone ?
171 etc. Throughout the rural South West, the Lib Dems have ground the Labour vote down almost to nothing - but that’s not the same thing as collaboration. I’m sure the 5-10% who vote Labour in somewhere like North or West Devon hate the Lib Dems with a passion, and will never vote for anyone other than Labour.
The Tories certainly are either the incumbent or the challenger throughout the South West. They can either win very big, or fail, narrowly, but horribly.
201. This article might help on Wyoming…
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/543fzcrr.asp
It doesn’t seem very democratic process compaed to Iowa, so someone with local party links might do well. I read earlier the Thompson camp have links to Dick Cheney who repesented the state for 20 years so that might help.
Here’s my take on it all.
I think something quite momentous is happening. Mike identified Obama’s stellar quality ages ago. But there’s many a slip twixt cup and lip.
But the cup has now safely reached the mouth, nearly everyone has had their first sip of this new drink and it’s quite intoxicating.
I’ve been banging on about Barack Obama for over 12 months to any poor soul who would listen. Hardly anyone I know had heard of him. Today he has led on news programme after news programme, in the US and the UK and all of a sudden he is shining. He has more charisma than any politician that I have seen in my lifetime. I am just too young to have known JFK.
So all this analysis about, well you win Iowa but then you may lose New Hampshire misses the point. There is a new game in town. A new dawn is breaking, is it not?
Go Obama! I’m increasing my positions.
214 Elizabeth Cheney, Dick Cheney’s eldest daughter is part of Thompson’s campaign team. Would have thought as it’s activists voting on the whole in Wyoming that having a Cheney on board would have made Thompson’s greater than they seem to be.
Sean Fear
This thing about suing for peace in 1940 is a recently promoted counter factual because Lord Halifax considered it an option in the aftermath of Dunkirk
He was almost on his own in suggesting this, and it is not even certain he did much more than “run the idea up a flagpole as it were”. He was probably doing no more than his duty as Dor Sec in looking at all the options. He had no support.
This counter factual has appeared to boost Churchill’s role in 1940. He had his hour - 1940 -41 but to assume we would not have fought but for Churchill is a calumny
All this bulldog bollox has been a plague for this country
213 - Good point Sean, I’m always sceptical about the notion of collaboation. While individuals may have tactical inclinations I see very little evidence of local parties working closely together.
OT I liked this McCain lookalike photo I came across earlier. I hadn’t noticed the similarities before - not just the looks but the whole character.
http://thepage.time.com/2008/01/04/obama-backer-daschle-hits-grandpa-mccain/
218 - or even collaboration…doh!
220 - I heard that back in 1987, while Labour continued to campaign for their candidate in Oxford West and Abingdon, all the activists were told by the party to vote for the SDP/ Lib Alliance candidate - and that was Chris Huhne. Not collusion, just tactical voting. Didn’t work though!
221 - it would be nice if Tatchell does the same sort of thing in Oxford East next time.
Honestly, SBS, if I was working on a no-hope campaign (and I have, in my time) and some party big wig came and told me that I had to vote tactically for the good of the Cause, I would hand in my party card. I would also be tempted to return my party card in a very physical way viz-a-viz the aforesaid party big wig.
215 stjohn - I’m the first to agree with you about Obama. I saw him speak in Washington when I was working in a congressional office over there. To be honest I had no idea who he was when I went. But he was electrifying. His trick - apart from his physical stature, the tone of his voice and the rhythms/cadence of his speech - is his optimistic outlook. He manages to distance himself from Clinton, and Capitol politics in general without sounding at all negative.
I’ve seen Blair speak, Cameron speak and they also have or had this kind of outlook. However they really don’t compare.
Nevertheless I think we have to temper the enthusiasm that Obama has generated over the last few days with a bit of reality. One of his selling points leading up to Iowa and post-Iowa was/is momentum. If that momentum isn’t confirmed in NH then Clinton will think she is right back in it and Obama will have been dealt a big blow. It’s still a fragile beginning - not an unstoppable juggernaut. The next key point will be when we get some new NH polling (hopefully tomorrow). Until then I’m sticking with my current position.
220 - I’m sure there are such instances although I find it hard to believe any Labour activist in 87 could utter the words ‘vote SDP’ and not be sick. Most of the time the local activists just go to a nearby marginal.
221 - Funny you should mention Tatchell as he forms one of my very earliest political memories. Hughes’ victory in 83 owed quite a lot to tactical anti-Tatchell (rather than anti-labour) votes. The campaign was quite horrid even though he wasn’t that well liked even by those who supported him.
“The conventional wisdom has been so very wrong about his candidacy[Hucabee] till now, and it could well be that the media and political establishment simply doesn’t grasp what’s happening to allow Huckabee’s stunning David vs. Goliath win over Romney and the GOP establishment.”
http://blog.beliefnet.com/crunchycon/2008/01/underestimating-huck.html
227-I really liked the article, it’s one of the best about Huck that I ever read. Specially because I had doubts about him in IA…
198. At Ladbrokes we are now 13/8 Clinton for NH, having laid 15/8.
Tend to agree with Sean Fear about Churchill - he was right on two occasions when it mattered - when he warned about Nazi ambitions and was ignored, and when he was PM after the fall of France and insisted on showing not the slightest hint of compromise. He was wrong on lots of other things, but those are enough for me. There’s a lengthy account of his duel with Halifax at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1940_War_Cabinet_Crisis
- yes, it’s wikipedia, but seems fairly well sourced. It doesn’t look as though Halifax was as isolated as all that.
Though what any of this has to do with this site I dunno…
223 AC Slightly off topic - but I remember at a town centre campaigning effort in Sidmouth talking to a woman, who asked me to give her good reasons to vote Lib Dem. After laying out a couple of “principle” reasons, and having reason to believe she was an “anti-Tory”, I started advancing tactical reasoning (now I am normally , for Lib Dem campaigners, a very timid user of this approach). Immediately, I mentioned that line, she walked away, saying she thought that was a despicable argument, or some such. Never had it before, nor since.
I mentioned it on the earlier thread and i’ll say it again, the ‘feelgood’ politics of Obama could become unstopable if Clinton fails to stamp her authority on the contest in NH.
I caught a brief glimpse of her campaigning in NH earlier today where she seemed to be claiming a role in the Northern Ireland peace process.
However, she appears to have Florida pretty much locked down so perhaps some value could arise if Obama takes NH.
230 Thanks. Actually, I find nothing particularly strange about Churchill’s quote about Hitler. I find myself also agreeing with Alan Clark’s view that “no truly objective historian can study Hitler’s rise to power, without feeling a degree of admiration”. Hitler, like Stalin or Mao, was a supremely gifted politician - while at the same time, utterly wicked in the ends to which he directed his abilities.
233. Yup. There’s no point in denying Hitler had significant charisma and a lot of political skill. I watched Triumph of the Will the other day - sheer and brilliant showmanship.
The Nuremburg rallies are electrifying - literally - I think Speer used up all the floodlights in Europe to illuminate them.
And Adolf’s speeches, while obviously psychopathic, are quite mesmerising, even if you don’t understand German.
Is there that much difference between Hitler’s rhetoric and Obama’s or Kennedy’s or Churchill’s or Blair’s? I remember Matthew Parris very cleverly deconstructing a Blair speech, and turning it into Ein Volk, Ein Reich, etc. The same verbless emphasis, the same patriotic pabulum.
Most gifted and successful politicians use the same tricks. It’s just that some use their talents for good and some for bad.
234 Hitler was the prototypical modern politician. Even techniques like mass canvassing, 24 hour leaflet drops, poster campaigns, were regarded as shocking by the other German parties when the Nazis first adopted them. Would Hitler have adapted to the television age? Without a doubt.
234 - Leni Refenstahl set many of the standards in documenatry film making with Triumph of Will (and much of Geroge Lucas’ scenes in Star Wars). It’s just a shame that she couldn’t admit that art, politics and the state equals propaganda.
I think the charisma bit for Blair is hugly overated, he was inoffensive rather than admirable between 94-97.
233. Clark went a bit further too. He wished we had come to terms with Hitler in 1941 to allow him to successfully turn his full force on the Soviets…
Hitler’s rise to power was far from inevitable. By January 1933 support for the Nazis was waning, and the economy improving. In fact, but for the machinations of von Schleicher and von Papen, in which Hitler was a pawn in their petty personal power-struggle, he would probably now be just a footnote to history…
235. Again agreed, largely. Though like Paul Johnson I think the modern era began around 1800 - and politically it began with Napoleon.
He was the first politician to exploit, mercilessly, his own charisma: to sell himself as a brand.
People forget how “good” Mussolini was, too. I was recently in Florence and there are some fascinating images of Mussolini wowing the crowds in the piazza della Signoria. Florentines aren’t idiots. Mussolini surely had something - though he perverted his talents, natch.
234….Yes & made by one of the great film-makers of all time. Unfortunately Leni Riefenstahl will forever be tarred with her association with Nazism, entirely her own fault though. Olympiad is another extraordinary film.
235. Interestingly Sean, in the Harry Turtledove alternate history books (where there is a fascist Conferderate States of America in the 1930s/40s) his Confederate Hitler-type leader makes great use of the radio which in this CSA is in use from the 1920s. It is in this way that he encourages a mass movement from the very beginning.
232 - Florida is literally worthless for Hilary, they are being shut out of the convention for changing the dates of their primary. It’s pointless any Democrat even campaigning there.
The GOP are getting half the delegates however so it’s at least worth a fair amount nationally.
What will be interesting is if the nomination would have been different if any of the states punished for moving their dates forward had been allowed to participate.
238. I agree, I think if he had been a little cuter & not got into bed so much with Hitler he could have survived much longer, who knows, even dying in power.
236. A fair point. Maybe we overstate Blair’s talents simply because he was so much better than the ineffably inept Tories of 92-97. Let’s face it, Tinkywink the Teletubby could have beaten John Major in 97.
However Blair did grow into the role. But… yes… I’m not sure Tony ever had much more than suavity, charm, and a good sense of humour.
True political genius is more than that. No one is ever going to look back on Blair the way they look back on Churchill, Kennedy, Lincoln, maybe Clinton - and of course Thatcher (who was gifted but in a very different way).
237, Indeed he did. I think he was mistaken, because the outcome would either have been a Nazi-dominated Europe, or the Red Army on the Rhine. I can’t see British independence surviving long in either case.
The problem for “respectable” German leaders in 1933 was that it was impossible for them to form a government which didn’t include Hitler. Even though the Nazi vote had fallen a bit in 1932’s second election, the Nazis were, comfortably, Germany’s largest party, and Hitler was Germany’s most popular politician. The only realistic alternative to a government including the Nazis was some form of military dictatorship, which the army didn’t want.
238 Had Mussolini died in 1935, he would now be remembered as rather a good ruler.
191. I reckon that’s a very fair summation of Churchill. Many of the “negative” quotes he used are taken horribly out of context.
233. I tend to think Hitler was an incredible politician but an incompetent leader. He was very successful early on by exploiting other’s weaknesses with his sheer will power, but as soon as he had to actually run something technical he made mistake after mistake. Even his supposed economic achievements are overrated - a state-run economy may have short term successes thanks to an artificial increase in aggregate demand, but it would surely have overheated had Germany not had the spoils from war.
Off topic slightly, but I’ve been wondering for a while, does anyone know what plans Hitler had for Switzerland and Scandinavia had he won the war? Did he include them as part of his German “Ein Volk, Ein Reich”?
243. They could have included him in government, but they didn’t need to make him Chancellor. And they certainly didn’t need to hand over law-making by decree to him…
243 - They had much more choice but it involved coalition with the SPD which they had spent ten plus years working against. Von Pappen was particularly culpable.
240 - Florida remains important for the race more than the delegates (although I doubt the convention would really block them if they held the balance as it would be a mini-version of 2000).
It was such a tragedy that Hitler came to power just as the economy was beginning to pick up. Had the Weimar Republic managed to survive until mid 1933 it is likely that there would have been no Third Reich!
244 - agree, the economy was in serious trouble by 36. Hitler didn’t do much apart from make vague comments that those around him interpreted and acted upon. I always remember my German History Professor saying he knew the Hitler diaries were fake as Hitler was far too lazy to be concerned with such things.
244. Here’s one extrapolation of the final Nazi plan was. In the East & round Germany’s borders I think was pretty set, other than that it was a bit more fluid.
http://strangemaps.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/uusieurooppa.png
I have just noted the startling similarities, in so many ways, between Lewis Hamilton and Barack Obama.
Let’s hope Barack wins, unlike Lewis.
I have sometimes imagined or fantasised about the possibility of Mebyon Kernow building up support and winning seats in the House of Commons over a period of 15 or 20 years, like Plaid Cymru did from a very low starting point. I don’t think it’ll happen, but it would be a hypothetical possibility if the EU or the UK collapses into some sort of Yugoslavian-style break-up in the future.
246 - They’ve been told not to campaign, the delegates won’t count. If they try to put them back in it will destroy the process.
The Liberal Democrats will achieve all 6 Cornish seats. On the ground they have a branch machine which is working well. The conservatives are hated and are badly fragmented with their electoral machine in meltdown. The tory problems stem from the hapless former PPC, one Ashley Crossley, in 2004/05, when an almighty row broke out about a whole basket of issues.
Crossley used the Gay Card against some members and this hit the national media, which exacerbated the row with his Executive Council and a large number of members. All this did, was to result in a number of hearings by the Grand Board of the Conservative Party resulting in a number of members being kicked out of the Party. This exacerbated one almighty row even further and a large number of Cornish Tories began to work outside the Party, which is effectively a split. Crossley actually lost the 2005 election and came a poor third in what should have been a Conservative win.
Charges of CCO interference, nepotism, sycophancy etc prevail in the selection of the Cornish Tory PPCs. All this is exacerbating an already negative trend for the conservatives.
On top of this, stories abound in Cornwall about former conservatives putting up their own Right Wing Candidates at the next election. A former conservative, who was regarded as one of the best and most brilliant Political Administrators the tories could ever have had, is believed to be the master mind behind the conservative woes. This will cause one mess up for the official Conservative PPCs and I believe is already straining local nerves.
My Bet is on the Liberal Democrats winning at the next election in Cornwall.
Thanks largely to ineffective Conservative organisation in many parts of this region (CCHQ’s regional director has been obsessed with consolidating rather than developing constituency organisation meaning, for instance, there are 6 Lib Dem agents in Cornwall vs 1 Conservative) the LDs will hang onto more seats in the region than they deserve.
They may even gain Totnes if Steen’s luck runs out. He too, has to share an Agent with SW Devon and Torbay whereas the LDs are beavering away, seat by seat.
Peversely CCHQ is neglecting North Devon as the local Association is a bit awkward and so do not get the support they want to win the seat. With an effective Campaign Manager the Tories could get Harvey out, but thanks to CCHQ been strategy he’s effectively been given a ‘by’.
253. One of those posts that you stop reading after about ten words…
lars is paranoid/talking utter rubbish. Labour go in work in eg. Exeter because they don’t exist in rural Devon.
If I wanted to collude with them I would have to work pretty hard just to find out who they are as they don’t field more than a handful of candidates.
In Exeter itself which is just about the only place all three parties are in play the Tories and Labour vote with each other leaving the LibDems to their own devices.
I think Sean’s analysis is excellent as ever - and may even have been a bit too generous to incumbent parties which often means my own… SBS pretty close to my own views.
I do think the Tories have made an almighty error in Somerset though - the Rees-Moggs peculiarly retro brand of extreme poshness could easily cost them both those marginals.
churchill never said poison gas was fit only for use on arabs, what he said was along the lines of “why not gas them rather than bomb them?” when he was told the RAF wanted to bomb some tribesmen. He considered it better to gas them with one of the weaker types than fill them with shrapnel. I’m not saying he was right to suggest it though.
Also, in 1940 churchill was very much needed. He had a track record of opposing the nazi’s, could make great rousing speeches, had boundless energy and was well known. The appeasement of the inter-war years had tarnished most front line politicians. The people wnated to fight, but Churchill was perhaps the only one among the politicians who could have kept everyone going.
135 But in Scotland in 92 their vote share halved and they held all their seats. Extreme I know but still. I still have a hunch that with the Tory focus on their own targets the LDs could make hay with Labour in some seats. For that reason I wonder if Teather will be quite as stupid as some think in opting to take on a notionally tougher Labour in Brent Central than a three way dogfight in HH&K.
BTW I’m interested as to why Bath should be though ultra safe. I know it should be comfortable, but it’s not Cornwall and after al the ‘obvious’ possible Tory gains from LD I’d say this was the next most likely. Cameron’s one nationish image may help them.
O/T but to those who think the KL/BJ beanfight will hold a GE indicator I think not. Unless a landslide either way its such a personality thing that if KL wins by a few points or BJ by a few does anyone think it’ll be because either the Labour or Tory brand has won or the KL or BJ one has. I think the latter. Far better indicator will be the GLA and how well the Parties do there and in nationwide locals
257 - I think the Rees Moggs could go down well in Somerset. They are sort of local. I used to know Jacob RM and he is a really pleasant friendly person. He just seems to have come from a different decade.
I believe he was the first person to be interviewed by Ali G on TV. Ali G kept asking “Is your sister well-fit?” - presumably this meant Anunziata…
260 - yes know they live there which is no doubt why they were selected, but everything I have heard suggests they are not going down that well. It seems that they have been much less able to shake off a privileged background and empathise with the majority than their leader appears to…
The other factor we don’t yet know is how will the EU constitution/treaty row play out down here. LDs have a worthwhile shot on target against the Tories with the in-out proposal but it could easily be blown and more over the spring as the bill is debated.
Despite what Ed Balls says I don’t expect an election next spring but if it is parked close to the Euro vote that could have an impact too. I would dissembling if I said I would expect that to favour the LibDems.
2,3.
Re Cornish Nationalists.
As an active English Nationalist, I’ve had time to communicate with some Cornish Nationists. There seem to be two types - those who want a Cornish Regional Assembly within England, and those who want to split away from England completely this latter group being much smaller and possibly pro-European. Many Cornish people consider themselves to be both Cornish and English, but not British.
Labour had the chance to implement their regional assesmbly ideas in Cornwall, why they chose the North East of England instead just proves how stupid and out of touch Nu Labour are. I think in the future any independent English Parliament would allow the Cornish an elected assembly as they would like more autonomy and to save their culture.
The English Democrats are fully aware of the needs and wishes of the Cornish people as we are the rest of England, we are attracting a lot of support from Cornwall, a mainly celtic area of England.
I have voted YES to Free Europe Constitution. It’s my way. See http://www.Freeurope.info.
No. See http://www.FreeEurope.info!