YouGov shows Tories heading for a 96 seat majority
December 15th, 2007
Tories move to 45% share with the internet pollster
A staggering poll by YouGov for tomorrow’s Sunday Times puts the Tories 13 points ahead of Labour on 45% - a level that the party has not been at in decades and would mean a substantial majority at the general election.
The shares are with comparisons on the last YouGov poll nine days ago are: CON 45% (+2): LAB 32% (nc): LD 14% (nc)
Putting these shares into the Anthony Wells seat predictor and we get CON 373: LAB 230: LD 18: OTH 29.
This would mean a Tory majority of 96 seats.
The Martin Baxter seat predictor on his Electoral Calculus site produces a Tory majority 102. Its seat breakdown is CON 376: LAB 228: LD 16 seats
UPDATE BETTING NEWS: There’s been a sharp increase in the spread prices on the Common seats spread markets. Sporting Index have just taken their market down while they re-assess their prices while Spreadfair has seen a 6 seat shift to 305 seats as the buy figure for the Tories. At 7.40pm I managed to get a £60 a seat bet on with IG Index at the 295 level. That, surely, will not last long.
Mike Smithson
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That is an incredible poll result, although it is very surprising that Labour are still in the low 30s and only a few points below what they achieved in the 2005. Mike - do you have any idea fromn the poll statistics why their vote is holding up so well given the current mess they are in?
Brilliant!
P. Collinson
Brown should do the hourable thing and go.
And the LD leader should go too…whoever they election, he should just start and resign, a preventive resignation
Congratulations, Mr Cameron.
Yours
a fan
3. ‘And the LD leader should go too…whoever they election, he should just start and resign, a preventive resignation’
lol!
4… and let Vince Cable take over… best thing for the Lib Dems methinks…
PS Merry Christmas
3. And I can’t write..but that’s a well known thing…
My surprise is that the Labour figure has held at 32% -yes good figures for the Tories but still not quite in the meltdown zone for Labour.
1 YouGov have historically given the Lib Dems scores usually way below pollsters which may prop Labour up a few points. The reality is it is probably better and worse for the Tories. Worse because Lib Dem incumbency means that if they were reduced to 18 seats all except Ave it would be amazed. meaning fewer sweeping Lib Dem to Con gains. Better because if the Lib Dems are a few points higher and nibbling at the Labour bote in the Labour Conservative marginals then things will be far far better for the Conservatives
Wells gives a 373/230/18 split, so both in line for a 100 majority.
I don’t really think there’s much use in the electoral predictors at the moment beyond Peter Snow’s ‘just a bit of fun’. In a real election, local personal votes and campaigns will make a difference and in any case, the party behind usually makes a bit of a come back. The Lib Dems also don’t have a permanent leader at the moment, which must be having some effect no matter how well Vince Cable does at PMQs. (Though if the above list is accurate, they’ll need another new one after the next election as well!).
The interesting thing is the new high for the Conservatives: 45%. That’s an impressive score - the last time any poll had the Conservatives that high was Summer 1992 when Labour was still in shock after losing the election earlier that year. It’s more than five years since ANY party made that kind of share (Labour in July 2002, when Mori gave them 48%).
Obviously, the poll is a bit out of line with the recent by-elections and I’d repeat my comment from yesterday about all polls (be they opinion or by-election) being a bit dodgy in December, July and August when Christmas or Summer tend to produce ‘close seasons’. Still, I don’t think David Cameron need worry about Christmas plots.
Yes, excellent Tory poll - no quibbling. David Herdson’s comment looks sensible to me (as usual!).
9 Let’s wait on the other Polls. I still find YouGov’s Lib Dem figure highly suspicious and therefore distorting of the big two’s scores. I don’t know if Labour are in meltdown or not. ICM will tell us
This poll is obviously a rogue, one offs such as this, proves nothing. It does not take into consideration ‘incumbency’, Well’s seat predictor is inherently biased and so is Baxter’s. This does not reflect the views I am hearing on the doorstep whilst canvassing, this would never have happened under CK….I blame the Tories…B**tards.
Posted on behalf of Mark Senior who has been unavoidably detained.
11 Beware comparing 1992 Polling methodology with now
More evidence of the Conservative share having no correlation with Labour’s.
11
How many polls like this though, before the knives are out for Gordo. There are going to be a fair few Labour MP’s starting to get more than a tad worried, and that’s when the Whips control is lost.
Thoughts
a)How do you get rid of a labour Prime Minister, there seems to be no mechanism apart from the “Gordo solution”, and b) Don’t the Tories want him in situ?? and isn’t, that why DC has backed off a bit, rather than go for the jugular???
Baxter does now take into account “incumbency”. He’s trying as hard as he can to even get the LibDems up to 16!
re 13. If you want to make money on the spread markets you cannot afford the luxury of time. You’ve got to look at the numbers and act. I’ve moved in this evening buying the Tories to an aggregate £140 a seat. Even with all the caveats the polls are showing that the Tories are set to get more than 305 seats.
Now - let’s wait for Matthew Partridge to tell us how this is good for Labour.
45 is the Highest Conservative poll rating with Yougov
13 is the Biggest Conservative lead on Labour with Yougov
31 is the Biggest Conservative lead on Lib Dems with Yougov
At 32 Labour are just 1 point above their all time Yougov low of 31.
Yougov figures go back almost 8 years, 21/1/2002.
15. Yes, I wasn’t seeking to make a direct comparison as such, more to point out that the Conservatives share is still rising, and to levels not seen for many years i.e. we don’t know where the top of the ‘box’ is - if that concept is even still relevant.
Actually, I do think those shares published in Summer 1992 were probably pretty near the mark: a general election had just been held when John Major’s Tories took over 42% and the party that wins the election usually gets a bit of a boost straight afterwards. 46% must have been about right then.
No change for both Lib Dem and Labour have the conservatives got 2 points from others and Nats?
.. anyone know when the poll was taken, I doubt it has included the fiasco of the EU treaty signing,, the empty plate plus bread rool… with all its negative publicity in the media
A PBC baby. My son Robert and his wife Lucille have had their first child this evening - Julia Smithson. This is a first grandchild for Jacky and I.
Robert and Lucille have played a key part in the development of Politicalbetting and without them this site would not be what it is. They have been to every PBC party though I guess it might be a bit harder for the next one that is planned for late January.
I didn’t trust YouGov during the extreme Labour leads and I don’t trust it for these extreme Conservative ones. I don’t know what it is about their methology, but it seems to be the most volatile.
24. Congratulations.
Does anyone know what the breakdowns (i.e date & sample sizes) are. Has this been confirmed by YouGov or just a rumour?
Congratulations Mike
19 A bit rich for my blood. I think I prefer Lib Dem figures smaller profits but less of a headache worrying if it goes tits up
There is no need for Gordon to lose his nerve. Indeed, Gordon must ramp up the take over.
Congratulations Mike!
Wait… do my eyes deceive me?
Do we have a *17% lead*?
Seventeen percent?
Congrats to the Smithsons.
44 Was the highest any party previously achieved with Yougov.
Mike your post was not on my screen as I posted. Many congrats and may you recive great joy from Master Smithson. Congrats also to Robert
The survey ended yesterday and so a part of the sample would have completed their online questionnaires after Thursday’s Lisbon debacle.
congrats gramps!
24: a new dawn has broken has it not
Mike a nice present after your recent sojourn in hospital, Congratulations all round.
Congratulations Mike, it’s been quite a week for you, but what a great weekend!
re 33. Thank you Miss Test. Julia Smithson is in fact a baby girl.
what a week! congratulations to the Smithson clan.
31 - yes, it’s only 13%
24. Congratulations!
Can’t be long now before Cameron gets a Roger and a half?
Congratulations to all the Smithsons.
On the previous thread, there was discussion of the date of the next election. Going by the Betfair market (which has now paid out on 2007, by the way - wahoo!), Jan-Jun 2010 is the favourite six month period, although the odds imply 2009 remains the favourite year overall, though it’s still odds-against.
For what it’s worth, I’d suggest that the odds on Jul-Dec 2009 are some way too short and 2010 too long. There’s unlikely to be much trading opportunity in 2009 (this year’s events notwithstanding, Autumn elections are rare, especially when undertaken voluntarily, but if the polls drag on with Labour behind, Gordon won’t go to the country any time soon), but 2010 might drift in a bit more quickly.
24. Congratualtions
This is a snapshot of this week. Heading for any majority will be a point of discussion for the eve of general election day polls.
A truly remarkable poll. The Conservatives will be delighted.
We need to think hard about our leader. It just isn’t working. The wheels have come off. Unless we stop to think hard, we are going to have an awful crash.
41 you’re right. Sorry, got carried away
Amazing that at the same time that Yougov found a record number of peope saying they were going to vote Conservative , when they had the chance to do so in real elections on Thursday and Friday they sat on their backsides in front of the tv or actually went out and voted LibDem . We should question what Yougov are actually measuring but whatever it is it does not correspond to what they actually do in real life .
45. Indeed but wasn’t this looking like a good week for the Government - before the Smith and Brown show that is…..?
I wonder whether this poll reflects the signing of the Constitution oops sorry treaty?
Either way I doubt whether Broon will get his day off now!
Must be very worrying for the Lib Dems,the usual reasons given for a poor poll is lack of publicity between elections;however,the reverse is true with their current leadership campaign and also excellent performances by Vince Cable.
47 - understandable, we’ve not had much to cheer about in the last 10 years
48; laugh I nearly cried
45. true, while things are terrible for the labour party there is not seem anything yet that will be lasting other than a general feeling of disappointment and an association with incompetence. If things continue like this Labour are in trouble, but will they?
With higher fuel prices, threat of a global recession and it being cold and miserable outside people are guaranteed to feel negative to the incumbents. I think the conservatives need to have a bit more optimism, in 1997 it wasn’t just dislike of government but a hopeful alternative being offered, Cameron is not yet doing this, I think in the New Year he should take the opportunity to put forward a set of aspirational policies.
2007: Labour bad.
2008: Conservatives good.
A Labour recovery in my view seems unrealistic until at least next summer, the economy then will be over the worst and growing again. If brown concentrates on policy and lets the politics take care of itself i think he could come back, any more sneaky and partisan moves will fail. I think this will be hard for him to do, he loves micro managing and being in control. It looks set to be an interesting few years, specially if we throw in the wild card of a new LD leader.
48 - Maybe they’re all just giving the others a chance?
We do need change. The others that are in denial need to wake up.
David Herdson and NickP try dismissing the Yougov poll as an outliar, when this poll is very much in line with the other recent polls. CommRes has also just given the Conservatives the biggest ever lead, and absolute % on record as well. We do need change.
I remember reading that in politics there is usually a 2/3 week time lag between negative scandals and the effect in the polls. This is perfectly in line with what Yougov shows. We need to change the leadership of the Labour Party.
And if the MP’s don’t have the spine to do it, then we deserve defeat. NickP and co. wake up!
re 48. alas Mark if you had let local council by-election results influence your betting at the last two general elections you would have lost a lot of money. There’s very little to suggest that they are any sort of indicator for a general election. This is one of the reasons why I never get excited about them
Where’s Ave It?
Tories gain Neptune.
55. do you have a link to the CommRes poll?
As a Conservative I have obviously been pleased with the latest polls, but I’ve always argued that we need to be in the mid forties, rather than the low forties that we have seen in previous polls.
So it is really encouraging to see to we have broken through this barrier… this is election-winning poll results..
Whether it can be sustained is a different story - I have a feeling that Brown will use the new year for a fresh start - I can imagine there being frantic activity from the government in the new year to regain the media initiative.
Mike - Phew, it looks like you switched your bets in the nick of time, otherwise it could have been very sticky for you!
From Iain Dale’s blog:
Gordon Brown’s own approval rating has also slumped to minus 26%, down from minus 10% last month. That compares with the 48% positive approval rating he enjoyed at the height of his post-leadership “bounce” in August. David Cameron has a positive rating of 20%.
56 Mike , they may not forecast a general election but they give a good indication of peoples willingness to vote and who they want to vote for . Yougov surveys always have to make substantial adjustments because they get too many responses from over 55 AB’s and too many people living in London . The number of people in their panel saying they are going to vote is in excess of 80% , this greatly exceeds the number who have voted in past elections and will vote in the next election and the % who tell other pollsters they are going to vote . This suggests that their panel is self selected by people who are much more interested in politics than the population as a whole and should therefore be distrusted without other evidence that they are correct .
I didn’t dismiss this poll as an outlier - as you rightly say, it’s in line with a number of previous ones. I did comment on the recent-record Tory score, though obviously just because it’s a new high doesn’t make it necessarily wrong.
My comment was in the main in the context of 100 seat majorities being predicted. While I’m beginning to accept the possibility of Cameron getting over the winning line in one go and forming a majority government, I don’t think there’s any prospect of anything like the majority indicated by Baxter an Wells for two main reasons. Firstly, the situation on the ground is not something that can be easily simulated in computer models (and as far as I know, isn’t). Secondly, these figures are a projection, not a prediction; they’re based on what would happen if people voted in 2010 (or whenever) as they’ve told YouGov they would vote this week just gone. The reality will inevitably be different.
That said, Labour is in a mess and Gordon has lead them there. Unfortunately, Labour is also stuck with him as (a) there is no viable alternative and (b) even if there was, there’s no way of getting rid of Brown. Therefore, it’s not the person that needs to be changed, it’s his style. My guess is that he will find that close to impossible.
59
The New Year is likley to bring fresh scandall on the donations front which has quietened down . There are “bound” to be new allegations imo…
So relaunch no 6 or is it 26? will likely be derailed again.
I do not for a momemnt think this is any coincidence as I believe the Conservatives have a slushfund of bad news for Labour which is being leaked at inconvenmient moments.
62. Surely a poll with an ‘excess’ of people likely to vote is not going to diminish its meaning. After all, a poll of non-voters won’t tell you much
re 60. Looking back over the past week I recognise that my enforced five days in hospital really did affect my judgement. All the initiatives that were coming out from ministers convinced me that the tide had turned for Gordon and I turned my bets round. I’ve now reversed that.
Wow that is some poll.
I would not want to be in Gordon’s bunker tonight!
Congratulations ‘Grandpa Mike’ and to the Smithson clan.
62. Yougov surveys always have to make substantial adjustments because they get too many responses from over 55 AB’s and too many people living in London .
Firstly. if they taske this into consideration what difference does it make?
In anycase, I don’t see this is a particularly valid argument. If I remember a thread recently didn’t Mike suggest that potentially the 55 and above group could have a significant effect because they are more likely to vote.
Furthermore, if London has significantly swung behind the Conservatives, being one of the key battlegrounds isn’t it even worse bad news for Labour, especially considering that next year is the Mayoral election. If Livingston were toppled that would be a serious blow for Labour and a big boost for the Conservatives.
The big danger for the Conservatives with leads as big as this is that you can be certain one or two MPs/PPCs will start breaking cover and using the opportunity to start promising Tory wishlists of all the things they (the individual breaking cover) would like to do, if only they didn’t have to pay attention to the pesky electorate. Things like these various madcap schemes on the BBC, “Guardian jobs”, etcetc
66 Congratulations to all the Smithsons (welcome to the new girl)
Shouldn’t be surprising by now that each attempted SS Brown re-launch is scuppered by incompetence or bad judgement. There must be a dead cat bounce soon - but am beginning to think the tide has turned irreversibly. Having been away for three weeks until Tuesday without access to UK press until late in the visit I’m shocked by just how much sentiment has moved since mid November.
70: bigger danger of panic breaking out on the Labour benches
I’m beginning to think that Ken might just have a bit of a problem with this story the Evening Standard are running. The Mayor’s office seemed to have gone a bit out on a limb rubbishing the story, calling for Gilligan to be sacked etc, but appear to have been a bit caught out be the new ‘revelations’ that came out on Friday. Trouble is they’ve well and truly nailed their colours to the Lee Jasper mast.
Happy Christmas to all the Smithsons, young and old. Happy Christmas to David Cameron. Happy happy Christmas to all Labour MPs in marginals. Happy Christmas to the indefatigable Mark Senior.
Most of all, Happy Christmas to Gordon Brown - who, by a brilliant combination of ineptitude, obstinacy, deceitfulness and arrant cowardice has made this special time of year even more festive - for rightwingers across the realm.
I’m off to Florence tomorrow, to look at stuff. I shall get the 6.a.m. Gatwick Express with a certain zest, despite the freezing cold.
Gawd bless us, one and all!
69 please don’t point things out to Mr Senior which may question the validity of basing everything on LD support being seriously under reported in every single poll by every single pollster.
It’s hard enough for Mark to have to come to terms with Labour facing possible defeat at a GE without getting him to face the fact that the LDs are at their high-point of MPs and cannot hope to increase their number next GE.
Mark has a wonderful knack for finding the good news in any poll for the LDs and the bad news for tories. It’s a harmless hobby but I don’t think it affects his betting; his opinion on how this poll might move the market or create value betting opportunities would be useful as I think when it comes to cash Mr Senior doesn’t let his heart rule his head. C’mon Mark, what do you REALLY think?
74
LOL and so well said
PS Presumably this poll was taken BEFORE Gordon “Beano” Brown’s Euro-screw-up. So the true situation might actually be…. WORSE for Labour.
*Chortle*
re 66, Mike Smithson, “re 60. Looking back over the past week I recognise that my enforced five days in hospital really did affect my judgement. All the initiatives that were coming out from ministers convinced me that the tide had turned for Gordon and I turned my bets round.”
Your fatal mistake was assuming Labour could not find some other massive cockup to hide anything useful they might be doing
Firstly, Congratulations Mike, Robert and Lucille!
Secondly - Wow! Forty-five percent. Yeah, the lead (a full reverse-Roger with 30% extra free) is very nice, but as Mr Worcester always says - look at the levels for the party rather than the differences, and that indicates that Cameron is getting some real penetration into the floating voters segment.
Thirdly - Mark Senior - I’ve always been rather sceptical about the “real people voting in real (local) elections don’t fit the opinion polls, so the polls are wrong” argument since Hague kept trotting the same line out again and again between ‘97 and ‘01. Well, I’ve been sceptical of that line ever since the General Election immediately after Hague kept trotting that line out, to be more accurate …
Even if Mark Senior is right and local by-elections are an indicator of General Elections then the figures do not suggest that the Conservatives are “sat on their backsides or voting LibDem”. The change in the share of the vote compared to either the London elections in 2006 and the May 2007 elections has been:
Conservative down 1%, Labour down 1%, LibDem up 4%, Other down 2%.
These are local elections which can give contradictory indicators depending on strong local issues or the reason why a by-election has been called.
For me, the real shocks from this poll are twofold - not so much the level of Labour’s support at 32%, poor, but not disastrous in mid term, but the truly awful showing by the Libdems, stuck at 14% despite all the free publicity they have received over the last month resulting from the leadership campaign as well from as Vince’s impressive performances, despite his shaking hands at PMQs. Secondly, having conditioned myself to the Tories needing more than 40% of the vote to get close to an overall majority, how quickly the seats would fall in above this level.
Oh, And congratulations Mike on becoming a grandfather and also to Robert and his wife
Firstly congratulations the Smithsons.
Secondly however you spin these results Brown is in trouble.
24 - a gain from Labour - congrats
Re 73, Alex, “I’m beginning to think that Ken might just have a bit of a problem with this story the Evening Standard are running. The Mayor’s office seemed to have gone a bit out on a limb rubbishing the story, calling for Gilligan to be sacked etc, but appear to have been a bit caught out be the new ‘revelations’ that came out on Friday. Trouble is they’ve well and truly nailed their colours to the Lee Jasper mast.”
I don’t suppose you have a link to that and the original story do you?
75. Oops sorry your majesty! I forgot that a 2.1% swing in the Umbridge Ward in Middlewallap to the Libdems was more significant than a national poll!
;o)
Will the number of reviews announce by New Labour exceed the number of lost seats one wonders?
It would be interesting to compare the decline in Labour poll ratings since the Non Election, with the collapse in Tory support following Black/White Wednesday.
At the time of the Non Election, I remember being told by Woger, Snowy and Nick et al that Brown’s boo-boo was nothing compared to the ERM debacle.
At the time I saw the logic in the argument, even though me waters told me something had changed.
Now, unless I’m mistaken, Labour’s descent has actually been more precipitous since late summer than the Tories’ collapse after the ERM fiasco. Who woulda thunk it?
Re 84, Marcia “24 - a gain from Labour - congrats”
Re 80. Sorry missed a bit out. These figures are for the 14 English by-elections held during December so far.
87. Perhaps the Government should set up a review to find out?
Can someone explain to me where the Bank of England gets £30 billion from to lend out?
Re 88, SeanT “Now, unless I’m mistaken, Labour’s descent has actually been more precipitous since late summer than the Tories’ collapse after the ERM fiasco. Who woulda thunk it?”
Yes, the ERM didn’t show up in the polls for some time, some even argue that it was the tax rise the following March (the one we promised we would not raise) that did for us.
91 The last time we had a real “Review” we actually had some ships that could be reviewed…………
92 the printers?
85 - Evening Standard. Follow the links.
Mayor’s responses
88 & 93 - But we don’t know how long this descent will last for. How hard are people’s views?
92 - I’d guess they simply print it.
92: Borrows it?
62 Mark Senior The number of people in their panel saying they are going to vote is in excess of 80% , this greatly exceeds the number who have voted in past elections and will vote in the next election and the % who tell other pollsters they are going to vote . This suggests that their panel is self selected by people who are much more interested in politics than the population as a whole
Wouldn’t it be more concerning if they had a disproportionate number of panelists who didn’t vote ? Not sure why oversampling people who actually vote is a problem, although I am not a statistician. Doesn’t this just mean they have less to adjust for than the other pollsters ?
97. 95. Surely that would:
a) cause manipulation by some banks
b) cause massive amounts of inflation
Probably taxes, and i guess the argument is the voters will always get their money back plus a bonus.
98 - Who from?
101: Lord Ashcroft?
100 - But the Bank of England is independent. They can’t just ‘get it from taxes’.
100. voters should be taxpayers
Dozens of the Government’s rail schemes designed to relieve overcrowding may be scrapped because of a funding gap
Wow, 45%!
I know the main news bulletins tend to ignore polls, but this surely deserves reporting?
I am increasingly thinking that Brown won’t last a full year in office.
It is a great pity that we don’t have an unbiased poster from Mars to comment on a poll such as this , even so I don’t think a dispassionate analysis of the sampling failings in a poll such as this and a comparison with how real voters in London , Chelmsford and Surrey would convince the mostly myopic Conservative voters on here .
independently controlled but i guess publicly funded. Bit like the BBC.
Re 96, Many thanks Alex
Wasn’t there some talk when it all started that the Bank of England had only provided about 2/3 of the funding - that which could be secured on sound assets, and the rest had come direct from the Treasury?
Wind the clock forward to the New Year and what do we find?
Mortgage interest rates at a 15 year high (in most cases already the case).
House prices falling faster than at any time in the past 15 years (awaiting the data, probably already the case).
Inflation at a 15 year high (certainly already the case).
Labour’s chances of winning the next GE? Absolutely nil.
107 - What makes you think a Martian would be unbiased?
107
An unbiased poster from Mars would conclude pretty much what the majority are saying, namely that Labour are in deep doo doo. Given what whe have seen over the last 6 months, one should never underestimate the ability of Gordon’ administration to cock it up. Its becoming almost a daily occurrence. Having pissed off the media big time with the non election (having told them it was definitely on and then come out with a fair number of terminological inexactitudes to explain why it wasn’t), everything this Govt does is going to be scrutinised to the nth degree. That’s why Labour is in trouble and will remain in trouble. It would take a “Falklands” for Labour to recover from where they are now.
113. It would take a “Falklands” for Labour to recover from where they are now.
That would just create more problems for Labour because they have run out of Army to fight anymore wars!
;o)
!07,
Do you realise how pathetic your posts are becoming?
And you have the gall to call Tory posters ‘Myopic’ words fail me.
Anyhow, Merry Christmas old boy, hope Santa shoves that much needed sense of humour up your chimney.
114 likewise a Navy…
Conservatives 45%, Labour plus Lib Dems 46%. Wonder if we’ll see a poll where Tories are ahead of the other two combined?
116. You mean we have still got one?
;o)
Gordo won’t be too worried. He doesn’t look at polls!!!
Well real voters in Barnes and Chiswick seem in line with this poll and they are in London (as opposed to Mars) and they also seem to be similar to the good people of the Holy Trinity ward of Guildford who gave the heave ho to a Lib Dem recently.
BTW Harlow, like Chelmsford, is in Essex and they seemed to share a similar view at their recent by election.
So real voters in real electiosn appear to be sending a mixed message, just as this poll is a snapshot of this week.
As Michael Winner would say “calm down dearie”
It may be economic factors rather than Gordon. The cold weather and run-up to Christmas will crystallise people’s worries about what they can and can’t afford at a time of rising prices and a credit crunch.
That said, sometimes you wonder whose side the Cabinet is on. The Home Secretary’s unfair treatment of the police to save tuppence ha’penny must be worth a few Tory votes.
120
looking at local election results and trying to extrapolate them as an indication of the National feeling is fatuous.
An important issue, is the signing of the EU treaty, a weak PM is going to have real difficulty putting this through both houses of parliament. The house of lords, if it smells weakness will wreck the ratification, it is possible, but less likely, that some of the Labour MPs in the marginals, will break cover, panic and claim they want a referendum.
The argument for a referendum has not diminished since it was agreed by all the parties in their manifestos only a few short years ago.
112, alex “107 - What makes you think a Martian would be unbiased?”
Con gain Syrtis Major West!
88 Sean T, to compare now with Black Weds have a look at the following from IPSOS MORI.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/12/a-tale-of-two-l.html
The correlation to the period leading into it is strong because Brown’s polling has diverged down from Major’s.
What about Bali? Bringing global warming to the front of the political agenda could give LDs a boost.
Bank of ENgland does indeed print money in situations like the recent injections.
And that is indeed inflationary. They’ll hope that the coming down turn, which will be deflationary, will cancel it out, effectively.
I guess we all hope they’re right.
117. With the Tories moving so far ahead of the other parties even PR might not stop a conservative government but would AV. I doubt it.
A very strong poll for the Conservatives by any measure. Even if it is an outlier, it would represent a strong performance. We have no reason to suppose that it is an outlier. Indeed, the surprise is not the Tory strength but the Lib Dem weakness.
As I have posted before, the Lib Dem / Labour axis seems more significant than the Conservative / Labour axis.
123. Much as I would love this too happen. It is highly unlikely that it will.
I suspect its too early for there to be sufficient disunity in the Labour ranks to stop this going through the Commons. It is just too important. If Brown was forced to call a referendum (and likely lose it) it would cause chaos in the EU.
Also remember the Libdems will likely vote with the Government on this. So on paper they will have a majority of a minimum of around 180.
As for the Lords I don’t know but I’ve not heard any real discussion that they might reject it.
My guess of what will happen is it will be ratified and then every time there is a case of the EU imposing their will on Britain it will be blown out of proportion and Brown blamed and painted as being defeated once again by the EU in the media. Euroscepticism will rise.
The Conservatives will promise to provide a revised referendum asking the country how to proceed should the gain power in light of the treaty - repatriate powers, stay where we are, or march further into Europe (not that there is much further to go).
The problem is - where are all these Tory voters? With the Tories at 3 times the Lib Dem support level in this poll, they ought to be crucifying the Lib Dems in all these by elections, but they are not. On one hand we are looking at a Con Majority of 100 on the other hand they are losing elections in Chelmsford! Something doesn’t add up.
Congratulations, Robert and Mike, on your good news tonight. I hope, Mike, you will be fully exploiting your experiences this week to polish your role as Grandpa Ming in this year’s LibDem panto.
Back to nos moutons - surely our Glorious Leader’s cunning plan will soon bear fruit - “Stalin was a very, very bad man and Mr Bean (to whom my advisers tell me I have some resemblance) is much loved by the people. So time for a change of image or ‘make-over’ as they call it. Simple, really, when you’re as clever as I am.”
131: Here we go again
130. On the other hand if Labour MPs want to get rid of Brown the EUreferendum vote may be their only chance as he would probably be forced to resign if he lost the vote and enough may now be worried about losing their seats to consider it.
131 - All these Tory voters live in the 99% of areas not having local by-elections or the 75% of the 1% that are having local by-elections where the Tories are doing well.
If you have to ask that sort of question, you really ought to ask if you should be posting on this site.
Nice one Mike - congratulations on becoming a grandfather!
A couple of people have noted the ‘message gap’ between high Conservative results in national opinion polls, and some LibDem and Labour strong performances in council by-elections.
But wasn’t this pattern seen also in 1996 onwards, when the Conservatives started gaining a handful of council seats at by-elections (off their very low base), when all the polls showed Labour was heading for a landslide at the next GE? I defer to the experts with the results at their fingers. Apologies if I am wrong.
134. Do you think 90 plus Labour MP’s will rebel over the referendum treaty? 20/30 maybe perhaps but 90 plus?
It would be a massive defeat at their own hands and likely result in calls for a vote of no confidence and Brown to go. There would be no holding the Conservatives. If Labour did implode in such a manner it would likely be all over for them at the next General election.
As I said I would love it too happen but I really can’t see it. I don’t think Labour MP’s are that suicidal.
107: Mark, as much as I enjoy you posting here you do post some rubbish. By elections are odd beasts which can be effected by a whole gamut of things like the weather, candidate behaviour, and even what’s on TV.
Mike, congratulations.
Good Tory poll. Even if it’s “rogue” would still be nice for them to see that number again - worrying for Brown.
135 6 or so wards out of 000’s is les than 1%. more like .005% Andrea can be more precise no doubt how many wards there are in total.
135 - It is not an entirely unfair question. If this additional vote is coming from voters in already strong Tory areas, this lead will not translate into many more extra seats.
138 - so next time the Tories have some good by-elections for the Tories here, can we expect Ave It to dismiss them as odd beasts?
Didn’t Cameron make a big song and dance about good by-election results one evening when Gordo had a poll lead?
Mike - very many congratulations to you on becoming a grandfather!
133. 131: Here we go again.
That’s the whole point, where are we going? Deep down the electorate is not as volatile as this. Swings of this size simply don’t happen, and we should all keep that in mind. I’m still betting on a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, mainly because I think the Lib Dem MP’s are a lot more entrenched than many seem to think they are.
For the Tories to win many of the seats they would wish to off the LDs, the assumption has to be that either the remaining Labour voters in those seats will switch to the Cons (unlikely) or that ’soft’ LD supporters will swing over to the Tories. That’s a possibility but in many seats this seems unlikely - and if by elections mean anything we have to look at recent results - AND the Lib Dems are about to get a new leader.
It’s all far too up in the air to me, but the more people who bet on the Tories to win with such a large majority…the more money in my pocket! I’m certainly not risking large sums on any scenario until I see the election results in May. I’m funny that way, I like to see real votes in real ballot boxes.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7017445.stm
Sept 28
The Conservatives say they are “very encouraged” by the latest English council by-election results - in which they took a seat from Labour.
They say they achieved swings that would translate to Parliamentary gains in three seats in a general election.
In nine local by-elections, Labour held six and gained one, the Tories retained one and won one on Sunderland Council.
It follows much speculation that Prime Minister Gordon Brown is preparing to call an early general election.
Labour has enjoyed a poll lead - dubbed the “Brown bounce” - since Mr Brown took over as prime minister in June.
Labour should be very worried that in a week when Gordon Brown has dominated the news, the Conservatives have made a crucial gain
Caroline Spelman
In several seats there was an apparent “swing” from Labour to the Tories - notably in Sunderland’s Washington East seat - which the Conservatives won from Labour - which saw a 3.7% swing.
But there were also several swings to Labour - the biggest of which was a 11.6% swing from the Conservatives in Dover District Council’s Aylsham ward.
Tory Party chairman Caroline Spelman said: “Labour should be very worried that in a week when Gordon Brown has dominated the news, the Conservatives have made a crucial gain from Labour in the north and achieved a swing in three marginal seats which would mean three strong Conservative gains in a general election.”
OK - it was Spelman rather than Cam the man…
142. Cameron was referring to the May 2007 local authority elections across the country - not a small number of wards.
Congratulations Mike!
146 - but Spelman at 145 was spinning a couple of by-election wins when the Tories were behind in the polls. I was surprised the BBC found the story worth running. Typical BBC bias!
“Swings of this size simply don’t happen”
You must be that chap from Mars someone mentioned. Correction, until now it ‘didn’t happen’
Btw, the blogger known as ‘Reflecting’ is Mark Senior and I claim my £5,
I’d advise people to look at the Republican New Hampshire primary on Intrade if they want to make some money by shorting the FIELD contract (as I did a few minutes ago) some Ron Paul fan with more money than sense is causing the markets to go crazy there.
150-There is one more thing that may affect the markets, but in Iowa, the Des Moines Register is expected to endorse one of the candidates tonight. I read somewhere that it may be Obama, but I’m not sure it will…
120 The voters of Barnes were certainly not voting in line with this poll . The Conservatives had a swing of 5% or so in Barnes not the 12% or so that this poll would indicate .
149 No he is not me , send your £ 5 to Nick Palmer’s cats .
138 Yes byelections can be odd beasts , you never seem to get one where the Conservatives do far better than this poll would indicate though .
In my ward last May (not a good time for Libdems) the LD candidate gained the seat from the Tories with a swing of around 25%. Methinks we are on course for a result not unadjacent to that of 1906. LibDems are shurely very good value in the spreads.
Re 132, Tomthumb ““Stalin was a very, very bad man and Mr Bean (to whom my advisers tell me I have some resemblance)”
I hear that Mr Bean is very popular in Iran
…for largest party, I mean.
99, 107 Mark Senior It was a genuine question, Mark. If voting Tory once, 15 years ago, makes me a myopic Tory voter then that’s a shame…..If you are saying that yougov methodology is fundementally flawed then that’s your call, but I would like to better understand why, not least from a betting perspective.
I see LD Dan Foster is worried by British television’s recent trend to schedule repeats during Christmas holidays…is it the situation so bad? It can’t be worse than us…but please, don’t blame Europe for it
154. Indeed, and I am very hopeful my increasing standing with President Ahmasmadasahatter will enable a negotiated and diplomatic solution, involving perhaps a joint funding approach to our Trident renewal forward plan with consequent shared ownership schemes and population exchanges….
well, the anti-terror chief is having an affair…but not with Frieda from Abba..and it’s all Gordon Brown’s fault anyway…read the Mail on Sunday
AND Rocket Ronnie slots a magical 147, possibly the greatest snooker break ever seen on TV.
O Happy Day.
Where’s Roger? Snowflake? Tyson? Hell-o? Coo-eee?
Re 158, Thomthumb,
157 - you need to buy more episodes of ‘Midsomer Murders’ to subsidise new programmes here
re 128 Rod Crosby ’s AV swingometer with a Nats boost of 16% gives
C 356 (-14)
Lab 237 (+8)
LD 25 (+10)
Nats 18 (-4)
159-Worse, from my point of view is this:
“Brown facing a spring revolt as MP compares him to defeated Anthony Eden”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=502595&in_page_id=1770
Mark Senior @152, if it’s any consolation, I don’t think a 14% poll rating is too bad a show, after all, being leaderless at the mo, having dumped another one, is quite respectable considering.
Perhaps things would not appear so desperate if you occasionally remembered that you are actually a LIBERAL DEMOCRAT and not a card carrying Brownite Nulabour apparatchik.
Or do you have a secret you wish to share?
144 “Swings of this size simply don’t happen”
There was an enormous swing in 1997. While there are still plenty of voters who are completely solid for one party or another, it is my impression that they are gradually getting less numerous as a proportion of the electorate. So bigger swings than we have seen in the recent past are possible.
While I am of course pleased by this poll - a wonderful Christmas present for DC - I won’t be taking a thing for granted until I see him walking into Downing Street and I’m sure he won’t either. But neither would I rule out the possibility that the electorate is coming to the conclusion that it’s time for a change.
There is everything to play for.
Re 152 - Currently Conservative lead in this poll is 13%. Labour lead at 2005 GE was ~ 3%. Therefore swing is circa 8% and not the 12% Mark Senior quotes.
Furthermore comparisons of the by-elections results are against local elections, mainly in 2006 (London) and 2007(elsewhere)when labour and LibDems did (by general consenus poorly) although any English County Council elections are against 2005.
In fact the swing from Labour to Conservatives compared to 2006 in Hounslow on Thursday was some 5½% whilst in Wychavon on the same day the swing from Liberal to Conservative compared to May 2007 was around 4¼%. All part of varying local by-election results which have many influences.
A Scottish no mark won the X Factor tonight and I lost £50 - hope for Brown yet.
24. [grammar pedantry] “for Jacky and me” [/pedantry]
WPK gain St Ives!
RCPBML gain Huntingdon!
CPSU(b) gain Ceredigion!
a possible PB.com competition for late 2009/10 could be: if Lab are still 13% behind in the polls will Nick P still be parroting the party like, there is no Supreme Leader but Gordon?
167: indeed…. Local factors…. In 1998 i moved the Tory vote from 10% to 47% in a council election, in the scheme of things (apart from me actually winning the seat the following year) it represented no swing at the subsequent general election in the constituency, either in the ward or at a constituency level.
166 - but why is time for a change represented by Blair mark 2?
Congratulations Mike on your new addition and membership to the esteemed Granddaddy’s club.
Congratulations Robert and Mike.
172: has Clegg won then?
I hate to say this but, the Barnes swing is based on the 2006 local election in a single ward in Richmond and the above poll is a national survey contrasted with the 2005 general election.
Thinking of our Martian, (s)he could well be asked to comment on that May 2007 LD classic,the one that did the rounds after the Lib Dems lost all those seats and councils, that if you ignore the results where they did badly, they did well.
175
:) 
169 - I think it a little mean-spirited to be a pedant over Mike’s message, even in jest, without also tendering your congratulations.
Also, if we are playing such a game, your three declarative clauses should read ‘gains’ not ‘gain’, as in each case the party is a singular collective noun: eg “Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) gains Huntingdon”. To use ‘gain’, you would need to be refering to members of the party in the plural: “Conservatives gain Cardiff North”, or would need to use a hyphen to create a compound noun: eg “[a] Labour-gain [in] Cardiff Central”. I recognise that your error is common, especially in the case of the wonderful Mr ‘Ave it ‘07, but that is no excuse in the eyes of true pedantry.
Respectfully etc
How Gordon and his government can continue to dither on NR is beyond me! Another week goes by and the taxpayer’s loan increases by another couple of billion or so! See:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3055831.ece
178 - “Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) gains Huntingdon”. To use ‘gain’, you would need to be refering to members of the party in the plural”
He may be referring to the members of the party having successfully gained control of the town of Huntingdon following a siege. I am quite sure the RCP would be better at revolutions than at elections.
180 - If the other faux-Marxists in the UK are anything to go by, I reckon they are probably better at selling self-serving newspapers that either revolutions *or* elections.
179 - Spoke to a Banker last night, and he was adamant that nationalisation would be triggered by the share price dropping to 60 pence. Does anyone know if there is a market on this?
164. “Worse, from my point of view is this:”
but reading it was mainly former Cabinet Ministers (aka Milburn and Clarke whose attempts usually push people in the opposite direction) and Ian Gibson (the one who chaired the Meacher campaign lunch even if he wasn’t backing him and said he was backing Brown but nomination McDonnell.and then I got lost)
178 - I fully appreciate the hour is late and your eyelids may be somewhat drooping, but should there not be a comma between ‘Respectfully’ and ‘etc’?
I remain, sir, your most respectfl & obedt servnt,
Thomthumb (General & Forty-shilling Freeholder)
Mark Senior posts are very strange.Mr. Senior-will you please put on record-what poll numbers, by what polling organisation, would enable you to agree that the Labour and LibDem situation is disastrous?
What an amazing poll. Surely people will now no longer claim that the Tories can’t win the next election, because they are polling too low? When you think this takes into account Scottish and Welsh voters, it makes you wonder what kind of lead the Tories have just in the marginals of southern and south-east england! :O
If this lead starts to verify with other pollsters and contuine to May, Labour will be facing meltdown at the local elections and the pressure on him to resign will become pretty intense I should think!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3056714.ece
pretty damning verdict on brown from the times!
185: Yes, a focus team survey
183-”and then I got lost”
LOL!
Even so, I think it increases the feeling that Brown has lost control over his party…
Congratulations to the Smithson clan!
JHalpern at 55: how do you make my post 12 into ‘dismissing it as an outlier’? But welcome to the site anyway.
184 - You are quite correct! Please forgive this most egregiously negligent attempt at atypical valedictory expression.
Veuillez agréer, M. Thomthumb, l’expression de mes sentiments les plus respectueux.
189.
some elements in PLP would have started to behave in that way ..it’s not a huge surprise… the question was just when they would have started and/or when the press would have started to pick them up…the problem for Brown is that it happened quite soon
186 God forbid our Great Leader should be forced out before the next election! We’d then get Blair Mk IV, whose honeymoon would lead to us suffering another 10 years of incompetent pseudo-socialism.
If that were the case, even Bonaparte’s revenge (aka the EU) would start to look attractive. 
:-(
Well what an incredible evening - Ronnie’s maximum in the last frame and now this poll!
Still think that there is a big danger for the Tories in this, in that they mustn’t get too far ahead of themselves over the coming months. Like this Lib Dem / Green decentralising coalition move -emphasises the disastrous centralising of power over the last 10 years, and also makes a formal break with the Thatcherite centralising tendencies as well. Although I disagree with the Tories on some policy areas, if the next government significantly decentralises power both in the public services and in local government then it will be a huge step in the right direction.
And I wonder what it will take for Labour backbenchers to arise out of their supine state now - will the 42 days anti-terrorism debate be the spark that ignites chaos on the backbenches? Comparing GB with Anthony Eden is strong stuff!
O/T I’ve just been having a look at the campaign finance reports filed with the FEC (it sobers me up) and the difference in ‘cash-on-hand’ sums is startling. I would be very interested to see what they look like at the Quarterly Filing in January, but the things that really stand out are:
1) Cash-on-hand at end of Oct: Hillary had $50m, Obama $36m, and Edwards $12m, whilst Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee had only $16m, $9m, and $6m respectively. The top 3 Republicans had less cash on hand than the second placed Democrat for cash raised. Romney is lucky he is personally wealthy. I reckon Huckabee’s fundraising is likely to have gone up considerably during November though. Romney has been spending like it’s going out of fashion, Rudy’s pile is disappointing seeing as he’s not really trying to win Iowa or New Hampshire.
2) As if $4m online in a single day (breaking FEC records) wasn’t impressive enough, Ron Paul actually had more cash-on-hand in both July and October Quarterly filings than John McCain. Won’t help him in Iowa, but his libertarian stance will play well to Republicans in New Hampshire, as long as he can afford to publicise it. I am told most of the media buy in NH is out of Boston, which is amongst the most expensive in the US, but if he has more money than McCain, could Ron Paul slot into 3rd place behind Romney and Huckabee, with Rudy not really competing?
Gordon has to pull a rabbit out of the hat. How about a policy review… on ID cards!
Firstly - congratulations to the Smithson family. It’s a great feeling, Mike, being Grandad - you will probably need more sleep than you currently get with editorials posted throughout the night!!
Secondly - kingbongo and others need to penetrate the “real” world. If you think Mark Senior’s comments are unrealistic, you really ought to spend a few days catching up With back numbers of Liberal Democrat News, the party’s weekly paper!! You see, my reaction to Mark is that much of his comment is eminently sensible!
197 Tim13 “You see, my reaction to Mark is that much of his comment is eminently sensible!”
Well that IS a surprise.
From the Sunday Herald forum about the Sunday Times Yougov poll - ‘That same Sunday Times poll shows Scotland as SNP 32, Lab 31, Lib 16, Con 16.’
I expect the sample size to be small and to be treated with caution.
” That is an incredible poll result, although it is very surprising that Labour are still in the low 30s and only a few points below what they achieved in the 2005. Mike - do you have any idea fromn the poll statistics why their vote is holding up so well given the current mess they are in? ”
Well 32 is pretty low - the reason is probably because Labour already lost a lot of support in 2005 from people who are basically Labour.
So Labour will be losing votes to the Tories now, and getting some back who want to prevent a Tory threat that they didn’t believe to be real in 2005. All this is backed up by the low Lib Dem figures, who are being squeezed (despite slightly stronger ratings under Vince Cable, who they’ll probably miss).
195 Morus I am told most of the media buy in NH is out of Boston, which is amongst the most expensive in the US
That’s correct, Morus. Only ABC has an affiliate based in New Hampshire (WMUR based in Manchester). Apparently they have a brand new facility known as “The House that Forbes built” as they made so much money in previous primaries running Steve Forbes’ campaign ads !
Bit of fun - the last question in the YouGov poll is “if one of the following politicians were appointed to manage the England football team, who would do it best?” Result:
Hague 12%
Blair 11%
Berlusconi 10%
Cameron 5%
Sarkozy 4%
Brown 4%
Davis 3%
Straw 3%
Miliband 1%
Osborne 1%
Don’t know 46%
201 - Thanks for that Paul M - that means the 31st January filings will be very interesting indeed, given how much McCain and Paul will have to spend in order not to get knocked out.
Can I strongly recommend the Drudge Report (www.drudgereport.com) this evening? Huckabee vs. Romney is getting messy, Guiliani is changing tack, Bill Clinton is either losing it or a genius for his interview with Charlie Rose (and may have taken Saudi money for his Presidential Library), Al Sharpton is in hot water over taking money in 2003, and the Unions supporting Hillary are not able to help her in Iowa as the local chapters decided to support Edwards and they have complete rights over union support in their state.
Biggest news is that Ed Rollins has joined the Huckabee campaign!
203 Sorry, Morus, but I didn’t understand your first paragraph. Can you explain for me?
Thanks
204 - By my reckonings, if minor candidates want to survive even as far as Super Tuesday, they need to break into the top 3 in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Forgetting Giuliani, who has not bothered with either state, Romney and Huckabee are occupying the top two places in both states. McCain, Paul, and Thompson need to get third place to survive.
There is not much that they can now do about Iowa, because of Christmas, so New Hampshire is the last real chance. Paul M has confirmed that almost all of the media-buy that airs in NH is out of Boston (only ABC have an affiliate in NH itself), which is very expensive. Therefore, the cash-on-hand figures for Paul and McCain are going to be very important, and I will be very interested to see how the financial reporting of 31st January compares to the Quarterly reports that the candidates filed with the FEC at the end of October.
How much will each candidate raise in the final Q of FY07, and how much will they spend in NH/Iowa? I think they need to blow almost all their cash on hand to do as well as possible before Rudy starts an ad war with Romney. The adverts will raise the money back if they do well, so it is worth spending now.
“We are a grandparent”.
Well done Mike and more importantly, Robert and his wife and family.
I can only guess at the stresses Politicalbetting.com sometimes brings to the Smithson family. May I say say, as one happy reader, how pleased I am to hear of your good news.
Oh! And the recent polls were good too. At least from my betting position. Kind regards to all.
This is the Federal Election Commission link, where you can see candidate filings each quarter:
http://www.fec.gov/press/bkgnd/pres_cf/2008filings.html
Who cares what Conservative voters think?
They are Tories, so they are racists, bigots and so dont matter.
Besides, increased immigration means house price increases, more labour voters and Labour Victory in 2009/10!
Conservative strategy to break Brown is misplaced. He is the reason they are doing so well. They should keep him in place.
If Labour dump him and the EU Constitution at the same time, appoint Gisela Stuart as leader, Cameron would be onto the back foot in weeks.
205 Thanks Morus, that helps a bit, but still leaves the enigma of Ron Paul. His polling numbers remain dismal to moderate, depending on which State you look at, yet he is shorter in the betting than McCain.
What’s going on?
210 - I know, Peter, I’m trying to figure him out myself! Matthew JCG Partridge highlighted earlier that there has been a spike in his price today on InTrade, and that he was/is ahead of McCain on that site. Does somebody know something we don’t?
I think perhaps much of it is due to the reports surrounding his ‘Boston Tea Party Memorial Fundraiser’ tomorrow, which his campaign say will bring in around $10m. If he hits his target of $12m revenue for the quarter, I think he can afford to get his name out there to engender a jump to clear 4th in the polls, thus coming third (ahead f Rudy, but behind Romney and Huckabee) in NH.
Thompson has money, but isn’t really spending, McCain has suprisingly little cash given his name recognition and organisation from previous forrays in New Hampshire. I think that Ron Paul’s brand of conservatism is better suited to New Hampshire than any other candidate’s, and that as long as he can afford TV advertising, he might well exceed expectations in that state.
24.Great to see you out of hospital and back at the helm of PB.com Mike.
Congratulations to Robert and Lucille on the birth of their daughter, also to the new grandparents Mike and Jacky.
As for the Conservatives at 45% in a Yougov poll, Christmas has indeed come early for David Cameron and the party.
The LA times published a story a couple of hours ago about his efforts: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2007/12/ronpaulphenom.html
211 Morus, I’m indebted for your comments, but can we just get real for a moment?
You are saying that if the guy raises and spends buckets of cash, which apparently he can do, he might just sneak into 3rd place in NH? I mean just where exactly does that put him in the GOP race, never mind the White House?
OK, NH is quirky. (Been there.
But outside the State, he’s going to get trounced. And in large parts of NH too, despite the dosh.
Is his price being ramped over here? And if so, why?
210 PtP Well, to be honest I think the betting markets just have this wrong, and are overreacting to the large anount of cash that Ron Paul has been able to raise, and the enthusiastic netroots Libertarian college supporters he has. They have also written of McCain for reasons Mike from New Jersey and others have stated.
Fwiw my personal view is that Paul could have been a good trading bet as he may do better than people think, but he has zero chance of winning the nomination. McCain can win as long as he can do well enough to stay in as the field narrows post New Hampshire.
This may be aided by tonight’s endorsements from the Boston Globe (and the Des Moines Register to an extent). The quirky thing with New Hampshire is which race do the Independents vote in. If Hillary had won in Iowa, then more might have voted in the Republican primary, which would help McCain, but its now looking like the Dem primary in NH could be interesting as well.
209 - That’s definitely a danger but I think the Tories are banking on him not giving up and Labour being stuck with him until the next election. It’s so hard to call, given how stable the leadership in the Labour party has been since 1994, just how hard to push.
Lol. Bit cheeky
216 Thanks Paul M. I have to go to bed now and can do so safe in the knowledge that the world hasn’t gone entirely bonkers.
Morus, thanks again. I’d like to resume this when I can actually see the keyboard to type. Meanwhile, I would just emphasise that when I say Ron Paul is an enigma, it is only from a punting point of view. From the political perspective, he is of course a neanderthal, and there’s nothing enigmatic about that.
Nite all.
OK - let me be clear: I absolutely do not think he can win the nomination!
I’m just saying that Romney, Giuliani, and Huckerbee all have their detractors in the Republican Party (Romney as a flip-flop Mormon, Giuliani as a NY pro-choice anti-gun type, and Huckerbee for being as keen on taxes as he used to be on Twinkies), and that many Republicans want an old-fashioned isolationist, fiscally-responsible, small-government Conservative, but can’t find one.
This means that there will be support for a fourth candidate (there is only really room for 4 by Super Tuesday), and that support will coalesce around whichever candidate (Paul, McCain, Thompson, Tancredo or Hunter) does best early on.
To just compare these bottom-five candidates, I would look at current poll ratings, the ‘energy’ in their campaigns (candidate and volunteers), but especially the money question. By these measures, Tancredo and Hunter are dead in the water. Paul is only third out of these five in the polls (thoug not by much), but is significantly more energetic than McCain or Thompson (I suspect Thompson may in fact have died, and no-one noticed), and I suspect can raise and spend more money than either of them too.
If (with Giuliani not competing), he comes third behind Romney and Huckabee in New Hampshire, I think he could get a boost, and stay in past Super Tuesday. I cannot see McCain staying in if he comes fourth in NH with Giuliani still to enter. Thompson is too lethargic to compete, and is beginning to annoy even his sponsors for lack of effort.
A value bet for a protest vote …
OHH!!!
Just got home, and Des Moines Register endorsed CLINTON!!!and McCain..now that’s what I call a surprise!!!!
DE MOINES REGISTER ENDORSES MCCAIN AND CLINTON!!
BOSTON GLOBE ENDORSES OBAMA AND MCCAIN!!
What on earth…?
221-I’m shocked!
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071215/NEWS/71215016
200 - Damn you, Me! You win this time…
224-LOL!
I don’t think many people were expecting that. Hillary will be pleased by the Register’s endorsement because that will help her in her hour of need in Iowa, but she will be extremely disappointed not to get the Globe on side, won’t she? I believe it is owned by the New York Times Co - she cannot afford to lose the NYT itself, or she is screwed…
Morus, I did not expected that. I think she has a very good chance of recovering, this is not just an endorsement, it’s something she needed to start her “fightback”.I believe her chances have increased, but not sure if she can win there(yet)…
226-”she cannot afford to lose the NYT itself, or she is screwed…”
Yes!!
I think you’re right, Me.
To be fair to Hillary, winning in Iowa was never an essential part of the strategy - I posted a link to a Karl Rove article a couple of weeks ago in which he said she would almost certainly lose Iowa, but that it didn’t matter. If she comes second, and within 10% of the winner, I think she’s ok. The real test is New England.
Still think losing the Boston Globe is going to sting, though…
Looking at the regional figures from the Yougov Poll it doesn’t actually seem to give the Conservatives much improvement in seats from the previous poll a couple of weeks ago.
London, South and the Midlands still show a clear Conservative lead as did the last poll (the figures don’t seem to have changed much except a 4 point drop in the Midlands figure for the Conservatives).
The interesting thing is that the Conservatives now have a 5 point lead in the North based on this poll (excluding Scotland). At the end of August they were 27 points down and even two weeks ago were still 8 points down.
As it stands on this poll they would do better in the North in terms of seats but would miss out on some seats in the Midlands.
Running the figures through the Electoral Calculus this would give the Conservatives a 20 seat majority. However, it could be argued that incumbency would see off much of that majority figure. Alternatively, as there has been such a large swing in the North and it could be assumed that Labour support will hold up much better in the Northern inner cities it may be that the Conservatives do better there in the Northern county and suburban seats than the prediction suggests. That may counterbalance the incumbency factor.
Therefore, a 20 seat Conservative majority may not be so far from what might happen based on these figures.
229-Morus-The problem is that she can’t be sure she will be second. Most of the polls show Edwards at the same level, but he has a bigger share when people answer who is their second choice, this could really cause a problem for her.
“Still think losing the Boston Globe is going to sting, though…”
I think so too, but I believe the press will concentrate more on the Register endorsement.It could have caused more problems if the Register hadn’t endorsed her.
And on the Republican side?
I was amazed with the McCain endorsement, what about you?
231 - She can survive third place in Iowa, as long as she wins NH. A third-place followed by second-place would lead to process stories about the end of inevitability.
I reckon Edwards will outperform expectations in Iowa - though winning might be a little beyond his grasp, he could come second.
I am *astounded* that McCain, who has attacked the ethanol fuel subsidy more than any other candidate, has got the DMR endorsement. This really mixes up what I said about Paul earlier: McCain is getting endorsements in Iowa, and Paul is raising 5 times as much money as the potential winner of the early two (Huckabee) - sheer madness!
232-Morus-I think she can survive third place too, but after being third in Iowa, I wouldn’t expect her to win in NH. Even if she has the support of the woman that was president of the local Democratic party for 8 years. And losing in Iowa, and in NH is too much for her, maybe it will be different when it happens, if it happens, but now, as you I
LOL!
the rest of the post:
I don’t think she can handle….
“McCain is getting endorsements in Iowa, and Paul is raising 5 times as much money as the potential winner of the early two (Huckabee) - sheer madness!”
Yes!!!People are going mad!I think he was the last one I expected!
“Clinton, McCain, Obama Win Key Early State Endorsements”
How the Huffington post is reporting:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/12/15/clinton-mccain-obama-wi_n_76970.html
You beat them to the story by 4 minutes, Me! Good result!
I’m off to bed - good night, all
Excuse my ignorance, but in the Betfair Republican Nomination market, why is it that Ron Paul, about whom one hears little or nothing, remains 4th favourite at 9-1, whilst John McCain, who has a much higher profile and who remains strongly favoured by a good few here, is languishing at 12.5-1?
236-LOL, Good night
237-PfP-See if posts 150 and 211 explain what you’re asking…
236-And Morus you beat them to the story of the boston globe by 2min!
238 Many thanks Me, presumably the Republican field is about to be whittled down to 3 candidates some time very soon, if for no other reason that the money is likely to dry up for the others.
It’s been quiet for Huckerbee these past couple of days - yes?
240-PfP- In a way yes, he had a good debate, he apologized to Romney for his Mormon remarks, he is doing well in the polls. Romney called him a liberal, it has been a “normal” week. And he did say this too
“The Bush administration’s arrogant bunker mentality has been counterproductive at home and abroad,”
I’m going to bed, good night PfP!
178. Actually, in British English it is perfectly acceptable (although not necessary) to use plural grammar for a singular composed of many individuals.
e.g.
“Liverpool are yet to show the consistency to win championships.”
“U2 are a rock band from Ireland.”
“Oliver’s army are on their way.”
We have a new thread!
Now I’m really going…=)
If we compare these polls with actual votes that are taking place on the ground, what do we see? The Lib Dems thrash the pants off the tories in Chelmsford. If Essex man is moving against Cameron, what chance do we really think he has of sustaining any real parliamentary majority?
Even where the Tories should be onto a good thing they are accident-prone. The Toryes thought the new Sefton Central seat was a ’shoe in’ but now their parliamentary candidate is up before the national Standards Board over some very peculiar discussions she held with a Council chief officer over contracts for a firm she was doing work for.
My local community web-site reports it thus:
[i]Sefton Tory councillor Debi Jones probed over irregularities
Sefton Conservative councillor Debi Jones is to be investigated by the Standards Board for England after she met a senior Council official to discuss how to bid for council contracts.
Cllr Jones was reported to the Board by Chief Executive Graham Heywood last month while Alan Moore, deputy chief executive of Sefton Council, was suspended.
Cllr Jones, who works in freelance PR, started work for Liverpool firm Ampersand on a freelance basis just a few days before the meeting in September.
The Standards Board has confirmed it had launched an investigation into allegations that Cllr Jones, who is also the Conservative Parliamentary candidate for Sefton Central, had broken the councillors’ Code of Conduct possibly in four areas.
!) a member must not compromise the impartiality of a council employee;
2)a member must not bring their office/authority into disrepute;
3)a member must not use their position improperly to secure an advantage/disadvantage for themselves or an associate
4) influencing matters in which the member has a prejudicial interest.
Debi Jones has said that she “went to see Mr Moore with a colleague of a company I represent to inquire about how a company goes about the tendering process. I merely wanted to know what the process was for future reference.”
Cllr Jones claims that she spoke to the Council’s legal department beforehand to advise them of what I wanted to do, and, as far as I was concerned, all was in order. She says that she feels she is being “used as a political pawn.”
Caroline Ellwood, Legal Director of Sefton MBC has not yet commented regarding the advice which she or her department are alleged to have given Councillor Jones.
Mr Alan Moore, meanwhile, remains suspended from his job as Deputy Chief Executive while independent investigators are now looking into the matter. It is not at all clear why any PR company would want to see the Strategic Director of Regeneration for advice about bidding for Public Relations contracts, rather than the Chief Executive.
At about the time of this meeting between Ms Jones and Mr Moore, the Conservative council leaders were plotting with the Sefton labour leaders to stop major cost-saving redundancies of senior Bureaucrats in Sefton, the outcome of which would have involved replacing Graham Heywood as Chief Executive with …..Mr Alan Moore - a bid which has so far been thwarted. As the Daily Post describes it (8/12/07):
“Conservatives and … Labour … teamed up in a bungled attempt to offer chief executive Graham Haywood early retirement or redundancy.” [/i]
178. I was using the subjunctive mood
57. But Neptune is blue already
This will help Mr cameron to go into number ten and the Tories must keep reaching 45% or more to be sure of winning the Next General Election and a terrible poll fore Labour and the Lib Dems.
Don’t forget the SNP in Scotland are real threat to Labour!
If this carries on Ghordon Browns days are numbered.