So how’s Brown’s fight-back going?
October 8th, 2007
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Did his comments about the polls sound convincing?
The first stage of Brown’s fight-back started with his monthly press conference when, inevitably, he was pressured on the circumstances leading upto Saturday’s announcement.
Later in the day he has the Iraq statement in the Commons followed by a meeting of the parliamentary Labour party.
The big question, of course, is how is this going down with the public? Will Labour stem the flow to the Tories in the polls? The weekend surveys, of course, were all carried out before the election retreat announcement and the consequential media coverage.
Update - New Populus Poll overnight
The first poll which will measure reaction to Brown’s election retreat on Saturday is due to be published in the Times tomorrow. The normal practice for this poll is for fieldwork to begin on the Friday and continue until Sunday. So maybe 45% of the survey took place after Brown’s news became public.
Mike Smithson
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Boulton is being quite positive, considering. “Like a couple tip toeing down to breakfaswt after a massive row the night before”.
It’s funny to see the various broadcaster pol eds having a conflab immediately after the conference to decide the “line”.
Stumbling, fumbling and not very good. But then again, it was always going to be a car crash. The important thing, I guess, was for him to get out of the wreckage alive. Bruised, battered and pummeled. But alive.
Now he has to show he has what it takes. The “bottler” charge will stick for months, if not longer. No question about that.
But it’s now a real dog-fight between GB and DC. Good. Has to be for the better.
DC certainly in the ascendant for now, although even the worst polls would have left Lab as the biggest party. The next six months will tell us everything. At the end of that, we will know whether Brown has a flesh wound from which he will recover, or suffered a mortal blow.
Reposted from previous thread…
Well - Saturday’s announcement was a turn up and left many on here (including me) with egg on their face over a November election. In my defence I never believed it until about last Tuesday when very senior Lib Dem MPs booked printers for their election addresses. Oh well that’s my £5 on a 2007 election down the drain….
The weekend of course more notable for a non-OF team (mine) reaching the top of the SPL (albeit for only 24 hours).
Will it have a lasting effect on the Brown premiership? Yes and no - I can’t imagine in 6 months time (or indeed 6 weeks) the average punter will remember let alone care that a planned election was called off at the 11th hour.
What they do remember are people’s character and values. Have GB’s been damaged by the non-election fiasco? I don’t know - it certainly will open him up to accusations of indecisiveness and spin - both of which are damaging. Brown’s job is to disprove them through his deeds, the opposition is to find further examples over time.
The delay must also help the Tories (which is why so many of them were hysterical last week) - given the amount of cash Ashcroft and co can throw around at marginal seats. It doesn’t of course make them anything like favourites to win - but a hung Parliament must be a more likely outcome now than before.
1. No he’s not. He’s just mentioned the worst moment in the conference, when Brown claimed he would have called off the election even if he’d had a 100 seat majority in the polls.
This is the killer lie. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
2. Having said that Boulton declares the official end of the honeymoon- now all to play for the next couple of years.
Listening again the big deceit is that there was not an operation to spin to an election.
That is a position that is not credible either. We have the evidence from Nick Palmer, the announcements, the private press briefings, the change to the government timetable, the stunts, the trade unionists doing pieces to camera at the Labour conference saying they will provide money for the coming election…….
Now he says people were only suggesting an election to him.
In fact it was another failed coup. An electoral one in this case.
2. “even the worst polls would have left Lab as the biggest party.”
Only due to the fact that the constituency boundaries, like the BBC, favour Labour.
3. SeanT, I agree, that is the “killer” lie.
The World at One is doing a very thorough but understated demolition job. Spin, polls, referendum, Brown’s character as a ditherer (his biographer says so and a ‘touch of cowardice’)…..
Simple answer - not very well. Brown really looks like damaged goods.
OT - Gosh that stop the war demonstration is small compared to the old demos.. Amazing how these things change. Glad they’re being allowed to march down whitehall though.
Brown’s biographer says that it is Brown who has always been the Dark Lord of Spin in New Labour and it still is.
A *touch* early for this thread, don’t you think? Let’s see what things are like in the New Year.
6. Actually he said in the answer that while he was considering “of course preperations were going to be made” (not exact quote but about right.)
But don’t let what he said get in the way of your outrage!
9. Perhaps ‘cowardice’ can be the title of his next bestseller - seems so more appropriate than ‘courage’.
Britspin, do you believe Gordon Brown when he says that, even if the polls had shown a 100 seat majority for his party, he would still have called off the election, so he could have more time to present “his vision of Britain”?
Do you believe that?
1 Deciding the line is one of the great traditions of the British press. Always been a fan of it! You always want to be the one who asked the question which got the line…. Minor victory, like getting 6-1 from the rails bookie on a horse that goes off at 5-1, whether or not you actually win
Redflump, Same question for you: do you believe Gordon Brown when he says that, even if the polls had shown a 100 seat majority for his party, he would still have called off the election, so he could have more time to present “his vision of Britain”?
Do you believe that?
18 - NO of course I don’t believe it. He should have said “well, I took the polls into account but, blah blah blah”. No big deal though IMO.
Britspin
Whichever of us is right, and a transcript will be available later I am sure, on Saturday he said the polls had no relevance and today he says he has seen them.
He will not admit that the whole operation was an attempt to spin into a successful election to ‘annihilate the Tories’ and to ‘crush the bastards’. Until he does that he will lose on this issue.
Guess he’s decided against going down the road marked “honesty”. There is a single word that comes to mind after reading that headline, but repeating it might get me in trouble here so I won’t . . .
19. No big deal? He just went live on TV and told a series of the most monumental lies, as you openly admit.
This is the man with a moral compass apparently the size of Picadilly Circus, who promised to be a change from the Blairite era of spin.
He is a change from the Blairite era of spin: because he’s much worse than Blair. He tells more stupid lies, in a more stupid way.
Blair would tell the odd fib in a humorous way, which meant he somehow got away with it. Brown just told lie after lie for an hour - and he could have done it so much better, as you suggest.
Incredibly cackhanded. I thought he was meant to be a master strategist??!
A big factor from now on could be Labour internal morale. GB was the big saviour to a) win bigger and b) take them back to trusted leftie policies and proper values.
Looks like he could a) lose big and b) go more right wing than the BNP on some policies and have values lower than the snake Blair.
19. Quite. Who cares if the PM tells lies?
I laughed aloud at that comment on Guido:
COURAGE by Gordon Brown
Next week -
HAUTE COUTURE by Worzel Gummidge
23. If Bliar was a snake, what does that make Brown? A sewer rat, perhaps?
16. I have no idea. I would have gone for an election with a 4/5 point lead, but like Queen Elizabeth I don’t have a window into mens souls.
Clearly he was considering having an election - so to consider an election there has to be a possibility of having an election -so what might that be?
Perhaps GB wanted an election that he’d win not on “competence” but on delivery and vision too. Perhaps any election result that had him winning on both vision and competence would have produced an even bigger majority.
It’s quite possible that what decided him against it was not the headline figures (which after all showed a 3/4 point lead on Friday), but what people were saying about the government- that they didn’t really think it had changed, that it hadn’t done enough, that it would simply be a steady as she goes election - and that this would not be a good enough reason for a fight- and the ground would be weak to claim it as a mandate for real change.
Once Brown made the decision to call off the GE, he had to end speculation immediately, rather than prepare a media operation over the weekend. He should have gone straight out and made a statement defending the decision in an open and honest manner to the political lobby. “I was considering it, but looking at the volatility of the polls and the fact that Parliament has been in recess, I feel that the public need more time to see me as PM blah blah blah.”
The whole damage limitation exercise is looking like more spin and lies, it just eats away at his credibility even further, it will enable this story to run for longer causing more lingering damage than was necessary or desirable. Who is advising him on his media operation????
24 - So, no PM in the history of our country has EVER told a lie? For F’s Sake! I thought people on hewre were grown ups!
Gordon’s Parliamentary duties re: Iraq are far more important today than some press conference that no one takes any notice of anyway.
29. In which case he simply shouldn’t have turned up at all.
A state of extreme denial is taking hold among our Labour spinners….
19 NO of course I don’t believe it
and that is the saddest indictment of party politics after the Blair/Brown era - casual lying is seen as just par for the course and a natural element of the political process.
When Michael Foot spoke I didn’t often agree with him but I believed him, ditto Kinnock and John Smith.
Brown’s USP was that he was a return to conviction politics and people wanted to believe that. He has dug himself a very deep hole now and unlike you you I do think it’s a big deal.
Surely the best question was form Radio 1 Newsbeat? Brown seems to have hardly understood the question let alone formulate a coherent response to it!
Brown could offer an EU referendum just as Blair promised it in 2004. I remember a former MP, Chris Leslie said they would allow EU citizens the right to vote in the referendum. Yes each EU national government does not want citizens from member states voting in their national elections, but once the Constitution is ratified there will some directive ordering each state to extend national voting rights to all EU citizens.
If he ever fancied a career in films, Brown could take the part of Sid James playing a dodgy secondhand car salesman in “Carry on Lying”, though perhaps a Charles Hawtrey type role would be more to his liking.
32. One thing for sure there is not going to be a referendum - Brown has been put off votes for a while - he’d cancel next May’s local elections if he could.
32. One thing for sure there is not going to be a referendum - Brown has been put off votes for a while - he’d cancel next May’s local elections if he could.
27
The Sick Rose
by William Blake.
O Rose, thou art sick!
The invisible worm
That flies in the night,
In the howling storm,
Has found out thy bed
Of crimson joy:
And his dark secret love
Does thy life destroy.
31 exactly. the public have known all along that nulab was just lying through their teeth about everything but, with no opposition, they couldnt do anything about it. now the cat is out of the bag and maybe, just maybe, there is something else to vote for the decade of lies and corruption will quickly collapse in on nulab. its not a given yet but its much closer than at any time in the past disgraceful decade of government.
He should have remembered the old “first law of holes”…when in one, stop digging.
Denying the blindingly obvious, that his decision was poll-driven, invites only contempt and ridicule.
Labour’s technique the past decade has been to tell complicated lies; to so dress things up in management-speak that you can’t extract the untruth from the impenetrable cliches. It’s been caught out when the lie was immediately comprehensible: “bury bad news”; “dodgy dossier”.
“It’s not the polls, honest” is of a piece with such transparent deceits.
The ‘treating the voters like fools’ label is really going to stick - especially on the basis of evasive and dissembling performances like today’s.
All especially partisan here today. I think everybody needs to step back and take stock.
Obviously it wasn’t an easy conference for Brown and he probably didn’t go into it with the right line (surprising). The mud will stick for a couple of weeks but nobody will remember all this by the beginning of next year.
For the Tory spinners, the best you can hope for is that it adds to an increasingly dubious opinion on Brown’s character. But I’m not sure that such long-term damage will happen and in any case that didn’t stop Blair from winning a third term in 2005.
29.I think your problem is that this bunch have rather a lot of form when it comes to lying to the voters, rather than compile a complete list which would take all day, how about just a couple from the last week.
The polling figures had nothing to do with Brown’s decision to call off the GE, he had a vision which told him to carry on regardless! Or, Browns carefully crafted figures on troop withdrawals which unravelled before he even landed back in Britain.
I suppose Thatcher was not lying when talking abour Westland or the Belgrano or the miners or comprehensive education (where Baker admitted she wanted to break comprehensive schools with “opting out”, even though strenuously denying it), or John Major’s appalling hypocracy in “Back to Basics” or Ted Heath regarding the UK’s sovreignity in entering the Common Market, or Harold Wilson “The Pound in Your Pocket”. Dear God, politicians are *people* who will bend and twist the truth (and even *gasp* break it) to get out of a tight spot. Like we all do.
29 RedFlump,
The problem with this attitude to lying is that politicians end up being placed lower than used car salesmen and crooked lawyers in the public esteem.
It all adds to the cynicism about politicians and the political process.
The polls of the past few weeks have exposed the problems facing the Lib Dems. How much longer can they limp along with Ming while the ratings slide further?
When the dust settles, Ming will be the one looking over his shoulder the most.
I am sure Clegg and Huhne will be spending even more time on the local party dinner circuit.
27. Britspin, that is one of the most dispiriting posts I have ever seen on pb.com
You don’t believe it, we don’t believe it, you know we don’t believe it, yet still you feel some obligation to trot out the most egregious lie.
Just…. sad.
I can’t think of a single post-1945 PM who would admit their decision was poll-driven in similar circumstances - not even people like Attlee of Duglas-Home.
34. He would if he could be sure the vote could be fiddled to a ‘Yes’ vote by using the votes of 2 million EU citizens resident in the UK, remember Christopher Leslie was considering it back in 2004!
Re Brown’s “vision”:
Can anyone name a few specific changes that the public will actually have noticed and which actually affect ordinary people that will have actually taken place by May 2009?
We know the economy is going to be worse by May 2009. If Brown doesn’t come up with any tangible plusses he faces certain defeat in May 2009.
42 So, RedFlump, you seem to be arguing that New Labour are a worthy successor to Thatcher and her gang when it comes to lying.
Didn’t you hope for something more than this when you joined the Labour party?
Actually, I’d say that New Labour have easily out-performed the Tories on lying — Iraq alone took political lying to a new level.
43 - But I am being HONEST! TO say “tut tut, fancy having a PM that actually *lies* to you” is naive in the extreme. Its like saying “fancy having a politician that lies”, or ANYONE for that matter.
50. So lying is OK if you are honest about it? Priceless…
49 - I didn’t join the Labour party expecting it to be some sort of kindergarten, where we all sit round holding hands and singing kumbaya all day (like the Lib Dems!) We do our best and sometimes we fall short, either by accident or design. I make no apologies for that.
Why doesn’t Labour rename itself as the ‘European Unionist Party’ or the ‘Anglophobic Federalist Scotland First Party’? Then they would at least have a name that describes themselves quite accurately.
“Surely the best question was form Radio 1 Newsbeat? Brown seems to have hardly understood the question let alone formulate a coherent response to it! ”
For those of us at work and supposed to be working, can you summarise that?!
Thanks
51 - You must be deliberately misunderstanding me. I stated that I was honest in my assessment of what Brown said in the press conference. This is what I think. If you are shocked that a politician fibs occasionally, or “spins” or doesn’t reveal the whole truth (which is closer to the mark here, actually) then you must still be in primary school, where life is all black and white.
27. While I’m delighted to see a resurgence of petry on the site, I much prefer Juvenal when it comes to Politics
“Do you want to be greeted each morning, as Sejanus was;
to posesses his wealth;
to bestow on one a magistrates chair
to appoint another to a command;
to be seen as the guardian of Rome?
Of course you would like to have spears and cohorts,
the cream of the knights and a barracks as part of your house.
Why shouldn’t you want them?
Even people with no desire to kill covet the power.
But what is the good of prestige if for every joy
it brings an equal sorrow.
Would you sooner be a senator -
dragged along sthe street by an angry mob!
or a provincial power ruling on how big a drink’s a pint?
50 Redflump, no you’re not honest — you’re so degraded that you make a virtue of your dishonesty.
Actually — even from the narrow view of the polls — Brown would be better advised to just be honest. It is the cover-up that is always more damaging than the original mistake.
Remember Paddy Ashdown’s affair — he killed the story, by being honest, by simply saying that he’d made a mistake and he regretted what he’d done.
Here’s the link to Labour’s new Core Vote strategy - http://everydaysocialdemocracy.blogspot.com/2007/08/is-there-affinity-to-vote-labour.html
After that rather feeble performance by Her Majesty’s Press Corp I hope we hear no more criticisms of DC’s PMQs performance. I wonder if the White House lot would have done better in similar circumstances.
When avoiding answering questions Blair went on about schools ‘n’ hospitals ‘n’ nurses. The new mantra appears to be foot ‘n’ mouth ‘n’ floods. I hope some research is being done on the courageous decisions made in those “crises” and the competence shown.
45. For the man who only two days ago was proudly boasting of his lies on this very subject, I don’t really feel the need to worry overmuch about your views on the morality of truth-telling!
Anyway, I’m not saying I don’t believe it. I’m just saying that I have no idea of knowing on what basis he made the decision- and neither do you. Frankly, the whole topic is far less interesting even than your views on the RU referendum.
We expect our politicians to lie, like we expect whores to flatter. We don’t believe either - but expect both to do it with style. It’s part of the bargain.
When done with style, you can get away with calling it “spin”. The problem with Brown is that he is unaware that every time he attampts a lie, a great big light bulb goes on above his head. And another. And another. Until they have lit up the single word. “Liar”.
well central office is out in force on here today. It is very easy to get carried away when you think your side is on top, something unfortunately the labour party were guilty of in the recent past. We shall have to see how things pan out but there does seem to be some rather premature celebrating going on here.
This sort of behaviour does of course lead to profit opportunities, I have this morning sold off £25 of tories bought at 237 and £15 of labour sold at 332 both bought at the beginning of last week all in all very profitable. However this does require a little detachment from our own personal prejudices, I have half a feeling that Labour will start to go the other way soon but will wait for a few days to see what happens.
Is Gordon Brown so stupid as to try to say he has ended spin, and then coming out with the outright lie highlighted by SeanT above?
Does he really think he will get away with that?
Britspin Eloquent but wordy while mine is pithy and appropriate?
58 ctd. Here’s more proof of Labour’s methods to win more votes http://www.labourhome.org/story/2007/7/13/112942/779
cheltboy @ 1.15pm
………..we’ve got Lembit coming to the North West in November!
The main story out of this Press Conference will be: ‘Brown denies polls changed his mind’ to quote from the BBC website.
Does anyone think that the public will buy this line? To that extent the image of a weak and indecisive ‘ bottler Brown’ we add the image of ‘Porky Brown’, arguably more damaging.
To answer Mike’s question therefore Brown’s fightback has started badly.
54.The lady from Newsbeat said: You are a ditherer.
His response was to mumble and dither.
Then she said you a bottler.
He bottled out of answering, then mumbled and dithered.
It was good.
RedFlump, take a deep breath and a long look at what has happened today. Of course we all know politicians lie - sometimes it is even necessary. But Brown just lied, for a full hour, on live TV - he told lie after lie after lie.
What’s more, he didn’t even have to come up with these appalling whoppers, as you and I agree, he could have finessed a much cleverer line, admitting that he looked at the bad polls and paid some attention to them… He could have laughed and said That’s politics, and then added that he also felt an election was wrong cause of foot and mouth blah blah.
But he just told a lot of very clumsy and self-destructive lies. And looked even more of a fool.
He hasn’t just debased politics, he’s not very good at politics.
Weird.
On a lighter note …….
The help which Brown has given Cameron over the last ten days reminded me of this little story, of which you may be familiar. It is good poitical advice.
Once upon a time there was a non-conforming sparrow who decided to fly north for the winter.
However, soon the weather turned so cold that he reluctantly decide to turn south.
But before he got very far south ice began to form on his wings and he fell to earth in a barnyard almost frozen.
A cow passed by and crappped on the sparrow. The sparrow thought that this was the end. But the manure warmed him and defrosted his wings. Warm and happy, able to breathe again, the sparrow started to sing.
Just then a large cat came by and heard the sparrow singing and investigated the sounds.
The cat dug the manure away and found the sparrow and promptly ate it.
The morals of the story:
1 Everyone who crapps on you is not necessarily your enemy.
2 Everyone who gets you out of the shitt is not necessarily your friend.
3 If you are warm and happy but in a pile of shitt then keep your mouth shut.
57 Quite
I don’t trust politicians.
Anyone who does has a touching naivite.
But outright lies - and obvious one - invite contempt.
And who is to say in the future what is truth or lies…?
50 RedFlump - agree there have been untruths and spin before but on each of those you mentioned there was a public scandal of sorts. I’d disagree with a couple where its a matter of judgement -i.e. John Major was a hypocrite in marriage but Back to Basics was spun by Labour to be about morality.
Where Brown was bad today was that he didn’t go far enough towards truth; it was sort of “I tell you today I did not have sex with that woman, Monica Lewinsky”. Clinton convinced himself, he hadn’t had what he considered sex but no-one else took the same view.
31 - What was Newsbeat’s question?
71 re Clinton true but then he is also the most popular American politician in the past 20 years, he would have had no problem getting re-elected in 2000 if he had had the opportunity.
31/72 - Nevermind, just read the answer in 68
For what it’s worth I reckon he was tending towards not doing it before the end of week polls came out. It looks like he personally was pretty cautious about it all the way along.
Therefore can he truthfully say, that the end of week polls did not change his mind? Yes
Can he also truthfully say he would not have gone if the polls had shown a 100 seat majority. Yes. I am sure that it would have taken more than a good poll to make him go to the country.
Brown is cautious right through his DNA. Has he still handled this badly? Of course. Is this line an ideal way to handle this, maybe not? Is he telling the truth? Quite likely in reality, if you assume he was tending against the election all along, despite what those around him said. his big mistake was to have waited for an implosion in the Tory conference.
The Clunking One had a chance to come clean and take a short term hit and get a long term gain. What he did was try to spin things and not do a very good job of it.
All he had to say was that he made a decision that though he’d win based on the polls it wasn’t time to call an election.
71 - I don’t think that this sort of departure form the truth is confined to public scandals - it’s just more visisible on these occasions. In essence, it’s the same sort of thing as Conservative ministers claiming, all the way up to the 1st May 1997, that they could win when they knew they didn’t have a chance in hell. It’s not going to exercise the public.
Brown certainly isn’t as good at dissembling as Blair was, is he? Blair had the ability to appear genuine even when everyone knew what he was saying was complete cobblers - but Brown’s effort was very half-hearted it seemed to me. He’d have been better simply to have admitted that the decision was a political calculation and he decided to wait - his ‘reputation’ for being straight has already been damaged by the events of the weekend, but by denying that simple and obvious fact he has done nothing but dig the hole deeper and attract further opprobrium from the press.
62 I don’t know about CCHQ - was trying to work out from nom de plumes if Charles Clarke, John Reid and Cherie were posting
75 - That may all be true but it doesn’t look or feel true. In politics perception is 90% of reality, the perception is that Brown is being disingenuous.
Predictably enough, the ‘bottler Brown’ epithets are flying around, and pundits are lining up to say that it was the Tory poll bounce that did it. But I still believe he never intended to call an election. Mr Brown wants to cling to power for as long as possible - he’d never take the risk that he might lose his turn in the PM’s seat only a few months after finally gaining it after a decade.
Mr Brown’s a control freak. He hates risk. So what he’s done here is get himself some more information on what the opposition would do if there really was an election.
And now he can steal all their best ideas…
Statement by The Chancellor on Inheritance Tax tomorrow perhaps?
Does anyone know when the next polls are due out. If there are some in the next 24 hrs , they won’t show the full effect of the disaster of the last 48 hrs. I suspect a poll will be conducted after Wednesdays PMQs, That will be a very interesting poll, particularly if Gordon Brown handles PMQ’s badly.(and the opposition pitch their attacks carefully)
82. Can the Lib Dems drop to single figures?
I think the Lib Dems will get a “Brown bounce” from disaffected Labour voters. The Tories wont get all the cream!
81 So if he becomes a tax cutter how does he frighten the voters next time.
81 - The problem is that if you are right it makes things worse for Brown not better. Secondly if he thinks he can now steal Tory policy then he will bring even more burning coals onto his head. Plus Osborne has carefully stitched him up on that point in the Evening Standard.
So all you Tories are saying that Cameron didn’t lie when he said he wanted an election when the polls clearly stated he would have lost comprehensively.Double standards???
87 he has no control over the situation and has no choice but to say bring it on does he? as it turned out he would have been right and he would have won…..isnt that why gordo bottled it???
75. Sophistry and bollox.
Brown didn’t just say he ignored the “end of week” polls, he clearly implied that the polls in general had nothing to do with the decision. No, he said, he had “listened to the MPs in his marginals”.
I don’t know if anything noticed this but I did - what he then said was: that the MPs in his marginals were telling him they would win and they wanted an election!
Having just said that he realised he was in further sh1t (why didn’t you call an election then?) So he mumbled and dithered and went back to his primary line which is: the polls meant nothing, it was my vision of Britain yadda yadda, I wouldn’t have gone to the country even if we had been 100 seats ahead in the polls.
lol
Your defense reminds me, as someone upthread suggests, of Clinton re Lewinsky. And his famous: “it depends what your meaning of the word is, is”.
The difference is that Clinton was a brilliant and very charming politician so he got away with it; Brown is not charming so he looked like what he is: A Big Fat Liar.
Drop this tedious spinning. Everyone knows he lied, even the lefties on here have admitted it.
Better to face up to it and then try and move on. Brown has just done the opposite, and made things worse.
89 No spin and certainly no defence. But it’s probably sadly closer to the truth than your hysteria Sean. Life tends to be more boring than it seems.
87 - Not at all. There is a massive difference between what you suggest and the behaviour of our PM. Everyone accepts that with your back to a wall you are going to say things which people may find incredulous such as wanting an election/being on course to win an election etc because to say the alternate would be massively counter-productive. However what the PM is doing is deliberately misrepresenting what the press and public understand to be the truth, he is trying to pull the wool over our eyes so we don’t notice he is naked. We know that he allowed teh election to be ramped, so to deny it is a lie. We know that the polls must have played a part in the calculation, because the briefers helpfully told us it would be decided once GB had looked at the polls, so to deny it is a lie.
Odds please on the next LibDem leader ?
But the big story of the polls is that the Tories are taking votes not from Labour but from the Lib-Dems. Brown will be hoping the Lib-Dems dump Ming Campbell in favour of Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne.
I will have a hefty wager shortly when I have studied form.
The rent-a-rant mob out in force this morning, I see - even seanT, fresh from admitting lying here a couple of weeks ago. Whom is this faux outrage supposed to impress?
The only thing that can save Labour is a Federal Europe. Europe saved Labour in the late 1980’s and the Labour Movement for Europe is a growing force. With more and more EU immigration into the UK, Labour has identified the EU citizen as their new voting bloc, as ethnic minorities are turning away from Labour. Here’s the evidence. http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/henning_meyer/2007/05/euro_vision.html
93 but then seanT hasnt been trying to convince the country he is a “change in politics” or a man guided by ” a moral compass” has he?
93. Back already? Couldn’t resist a rant of your own, obviously.
91 I can reply in two words. NO DIFFERENCE
87 - eh? I thought the polls indicated he’d win narrowly?
89.
Sean, its just occurred to me that a couple of weeks ago you were certain that GB wouldn’t call an election, no matter how good the polls. So why don’t you want to take credit for the fact he’s now saying you were right?
Re 93, Nick, I suspect SeanT will point out he was just trying to lure Labour out!
93. The difference between you, me and the PM, Nick Palmer, is that I am a novelist writing on a political blog. I am not being paid to run the country. I can say what the F I like, and you are free to believe or disbelieve me. It doesn’t matter.
If anything I am paid to lie - I write fiction.
When YOU lie, as you did over immigration some time ago, it matters. Because you are an MP, and you are meant to have at least some principles.
And when the Prime Minister of the country goes live on air and tells a pack of monstrous fibs that even his supporters - like RedFlump - admit are total untruths, then it matters a great deal.
A great deal indeed.
We will see if Brown’s lies impress anyone. I don’t think they will.
Interesting how Brown referred to the ‘cost of the Tory IHT cut’ as £5bn, then £6bn, then £3.5bn. Hardly likely to increase one’s confidence in his grasp of the basics.
Jonathan
The trouble is you’re flat wrong. A provisional decision had been made to call a GE for November 1 with the announcement being made tomorrow. Government announcements were moved, attempts were made to reduce any bounce coming out of the Tory Party Conference and election planning was at full tilt. Unions were asked to cough up money, Labour MPs were put on full GE alert, helicopter landing slots were booked etc etc.
Plus, of course, all this had been spun to the very journalists who were listening to the rubbish that Brown spouted today. That’s why Boulton lost his temper with the hapless Jacqui Smith yesterday. He knew as a matter of cold stone certainty that she wasn’t telling the truth because he had been briefed to the contrary by senior Ministers; all systems go subject to the polls.
97 - If you say so, I expect then that if and when Labour is trailing in the polls during the next election campaign all of their spokesman to go around saying ‘yes you are right we are stuffed’. Is it going to happen? Like hell. That is politics. It is not what 99% of sane adults would class as a lie. What Gordon has been doing is saying things that most people suspect or believe to be utterly untrue.
93 I’m not outraged, I’m truly happy that Gordon is making such a horlicks of it. I haven’t seen the footage yet ,but I don’t believe what he is saying( according to the News reports), and IMHO neither do the great Britsh public. The IRAQ stunt was bad enough, saying the polls had nothing to do with his decision to call it off seems to me to be a compleley fatuous response. The media are sayig they were briefed on an annnouncement, so his denial doesn’t ring true.
Nick Palmer And last week and the week before it was Labour rant-a-crowd around here with stories that Cameron was finished, the Tories were in melt down, Roger crowing inanely, Snowfake going ballistic, Coldstone working overtime and even from your good self something about majorities for Labour in the election you were sure was coming to rival 1997.
Is yours not the false outrage.
PS English has a perfectly good word and French is not necessary.
What I can’t understand, as someone deeply sceptical of unnecessary General Elections, and someone who believes that Autumn elections are, in our current system, expensive in money and people’s time to change longstanding timetables, programmes of work etc, is WHY, if GB was always of a mind to go longer to “develop his vision” for Britain, he allowed others to influence him on a party political advantage agenda. If that was his view, he could have closed the whole thing down by saying to them that this is not the time. I cannot think of a single case where a PM has gone for an election with a secure majority and no national crisis in under 3 years from the previous GE. I have to agree with Ming Campbell that it is deeply cynical, and brings the whole thing into disrepute with the public. GB might have redeemed himself using the dave (s) scenario of announcing upcoming legislation for fixed term parliaments, but he didn’t even say that. Some comment journalists, eg in the Guardian, did point out how unnecessary such an election would have been, but many others allowed themselves to be dragged along, and whipped up into a partisan lather.
I am a party politician, and it’s great when something helps your party, but it makes me angry that so many people seem to have got involved in this. Cameron’s behaviour in particular makes me angry - both in the false macho “Bring it on!” approach he took, and the hypocritical criticism of GB “bottling it”. I don’t think this episode will ultimately benefit the Tories anyway - the only winners will be the “I don’t vote” Party (now easily the biggest in the country) As has been explained, and GB has acknowledged, we do not live in a Presidential system and no personal mandate is required for a new PM from the same party.
Rant over - for the moment.
Even the Brown supporters are surely going to have to admit that he’s stuffed himself with the journalists. Aren’t they?
99. No, cause I can’t take credit for sticking to my guns!
I changed my mind half a dozen times, as to whether he would call it.
That said, I always thought it was extremely risky, and a silly error to ramp it up. And I always thought Brown should have been much more cautious.
But I didn’t know what Brown was thinking, I was trying to second guess him. Hence my capricious opinion on the matter.
It is not the lies it is the catalogue of errors that is rather disturbing me about our Gordon which start as follows;
1- openly taunting the Tories with an election- stupid, stupid. Of course they were going to unite- any party would- should have kept it all quiet;
2- the visit to Iraq- badly done Gordon.
3- continuing to wait even though it was obvious the polls were turning- should have smothered the flames come Thursday evening
4- briefing Marr on Saturday for a televised interview on Sunday- obvious it was going to leak with a fall bucket load of crap raining over him in the Sunday papers. doh…
5- trying to deflect the situation with this rather patronising half truth today at the press conference.
6/7/8/9- whatever next- whoever’s guess??
Everyone expects politicians to lie- not the point. It is Brown’s monumental lack of judgement, his inability to manoevre a situation on his feet. He is the political equivalent of Homer Simpson.
At least with the ERM Mayor was contending (badly) with events beyond his control. At the moment Brown is lumbering from crisis to crisis- all completely of his own making. He has gifted the Tories and most probably fatally damaged his own profile. All unnecessarily.
There is not a hope in hell that Labour are going to win another convincing majority. Brown could have put the Tories to the sword in May 08.
Even worse a swing in anti Labour political sentiment will probably bring that clown Boris to London in 08. But heh- compared to “Homer” Brown, Boris exudes the political skill of Karl Rove.
I know you cannot say f*ck on this site, but I am f*ckin depressed, and our prime minister Brown is a f*ckin idiot.
93 “Fightback” being the new black in political fashion is this the first sight of the Nick Palmer Fightback
Glad you came on though I fear you will be buried under the avalanche of displeasure.
93: Nick, perhaps you could ask a question in the House about how much government and council preparations for the non election have cost the taxpayer.
Re 98, Stonch, it depends on which polls you look at. In one case it looks like the majority would be cut, if the marginal polls are to believed, then he would have had it wiped out.
Oops
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7030377.stm
Appparently robot calls to find out voters intentions are illegal under EU legislation. Which political party, never intending to call an election, could have been using them?
Well done Lib Dems!
Order ! Order!
Might I humbly suggest that Mike appoints the equivalent of the Speaker of the House so that debate may proceed in a civil manner.
Perhaps a system based upon “yellow” and “red” cards as in football
or even “sin-binning”
70 Madasafish Why the h… do you come on here when the vast majority of us are politicians??? Or are you trying to say you are not? Or do you get your kicks from finding the few believable words here?
110. He is the political equivalent of Homer Simpson.” Immensely popular, around for a decade and loved by all. I see your point!
Oh come on Tyson, chin up, old man.= No-one’s died!
All that’s happened is there’s not going to be a general election.
Someone suggested to me last week, For the last decade we’ve had a prime minister who was brilliant, utterly brilliant at the short term political stuff, but less good at the long term policy agenda. Now weve go one who’s the other way around.
Maybe that’s where we are, I don’t know, but we’re in a lot better political position than we were six months ago. The events of this weekend don’t change that one bit!
110. There is one thing left that might save Brown and Labour - Europe and a referendum whatever the result.
All the juice has been sucked ouot of politics now. No need to get upset with the polls until early 2009! Cammy can have all the leads he likes till then.
re 29. So you wonder why turnout is under 60% and dropping.
If Brown came on TV with his best gravel voice and solemn face and declared that there was categorical evidence that Al Qaeda were planning an attack on Britain I wouldn’t believe a word which came out of his mouth. I wouldn’t be the only one. Is that good for the body politic? or the country’s state of health?
93- Nick Palmer- you more than most should be angry with Gordon. His political shennanegans has more than likely cost you a job that you love, are committed to, and I would expect do very well. Not someone I would feel particularly inclined to support at the minute.
OT. Just had to ring Hills to get them to settle the 11/4 on no election this year.
A warning to all those who snapped up the value unless you call they won’t settle until the end of the year.
The woman at the call centre had to ring through to someone else before they would settle the bet.
It’s a funny old game.
Think we need to get a grip on reality here.
Yes, GB was going to call and election. Yes, he saw the polls turning and changed his mind - even though he (probably) would have have won. Now he has to pretend he wasn’t going to call an election.
Embarrassing? Absolutely.
The death of democracy? Not really, if we’re being honest.
As I said earlier, he will be “bottler Brown” for months. He will have to live with that. Living by the sword, dying by the sword, and all that.
But now we know the next GE will probably be no earlier than May 2009. That is 18 months away. Everything will be different then, and what happened in October 2007 will not be a major factor.
If GB wants to win then, he has to earn it. That is the task. Cameron, clearly boosted and on the up, needs to be able to reframe the narrative his way.
The big difference, still, could be that Labour seems genuinely united on the desire to stay in office and there will not be any putsch. The Tories, by contrast, have demonstrated in recent months that they do dissent far better than unity over anything other than the very short-term.
Even when DC was five points clear, he was being sniped at by the dinosaurs. If he doesn’t stay ahead now, it will happen again - “when we were truly Conservative, we had them on the back foot and were ahead in the polls; now we’ve gone back to his modernising agenda and look what’s happened”.
All to play for. Still Labour’s to lose but GB has got to be far more sure-footed and start leading again.
110. Tyson, bless you. An honest leftie!
In the same spirit of honesty, can I say that this whole Brown charade is making me look anew at Tony Blair.
Yes yes. Bear with me! I know Iraq was awful but… well.. Blair did have that optimistic charm which was quite winning. After you’d seen him in action you often felt slightly uplifted, even as you often felt very angry. Weird but true. Blair stayed on too long but he also added to the gaiety of the nation. And dammit he could tell a joke. Against himself as well.
Whereas Brown’s bleak and clumsy blustering is just depressing.
I’m sure I’ll get over this weird and self-contradictory mood.
Wasn’t the ‘Bottler Brown’ epithet - which will stick - from the Guardian on sunday.
Those that crapp on you may not always be your enemy.
114. I think some of us are getting carried away with the polls and their effect on Brown. After all I don’t think I was alone in thinking, in the build-up to the Tory recovery when the polls were bad for us, that Brown simply didn’t have the courage to call one.
Maybe, he was today subtly just admitting that, it was not the polls: he just doesn’t have the courage?
BTW Redflump at 42. Actually no. Partisanly you think Thatcher lied about the Belgrano, Westland et al; I’m sure many of us would argue quite the opposite. It is actually not that common for a PM, or indeed any politician, to yet go into the public sphere and lie outright. This is partly what makes me think maybe Brown is not lying after all, but just telling half-truths.
124 Sean. Blair was a lot like you! Was like looking in a mirror. Brown is quite different.
124. Hmmm…..yes Blair=Clinton i.e. charming dissembler, Brown perhaps=Nixon…charmless l***
110 Indeed. He might just as well as have picked up the ‘phone to Cameron three months ago and said “I’m going to call a snap election. Would you like to get ready for it?”
129 Nice
I wonder how powerful the Labour Movement for Europe will become? David ‘Milipede’ seems to be a leading member of this faction. Will they replace the Brownites?
127. Hah! I’ve never been compared to Tony Blair before. I don’t know whether to feel hideously insulted or surprisingly flattered. Both, maybe…
124- seant- definitely where emotional intelligence plays a part- and I agree this wouldn’t have happened with TB.
Oh well, heh ho. You win some, you lose some- and Labour have been on a 15 year winning streak. Bound to come to an end at some point.
116 ” Madasafish Why the h… do you come on here when the vast majority of us are politicians??? Or are you trying to say you are not? Or do you get your kicks from finding the few believable words here?”
I understand this is a free society and I can post what I like on an open blog. Perhaps I’m naive as well thinking politicians welcome commenst from us plebian voters?
117- britspin- admire your optimism
129- sean fear- spot on
Seems the Clucking Fist has had more “visions” than a saint
Tyson at 110 - sadly I agree - we were told he was a `heavyweight strategist’ and frankly this suggests the opposite.
137. The ‘heavyweight’ bit was right.
136 - and we thought Blair was messianic!
So I take it that all of those who are moaning about the cancellation of something that wasn’t due to happen anyway, will be backing the Lib Dems in the call for fixed term parliaments?
110. Crikey Tyson, you’re very honest today.
Tyson. Redflump. Both of you - RESPECT.
Not for “slating” Labour and impressing a Tory, but for being honest about your feelings. We’re all semi-anonymous here. Nothing wrong with coming clean about your views - it’s very decent of you.
Frankly, you put Grumpy/Jonathan/britspin/bally”there WILL be an election”eric to shame with their partisan bluster. Wish there were more like you.
Right, time for my views again
(1) Next Election - Labour WON’T win a majority in 2009/10. But neither will the Tories. No, I don’t know who will be the largest party, but there will be a hung parliament. To what degree, is anyones guess. I think Brown has lost the South-East and Cameron can’t turn the picture around nationally in 2 years. He just hasn’t the support in the North to win outright; yet.
(2) Brown - the immediate rancour will fade away over the coming weeks, but the long-term damage will be of a different sort. In three respects; (a) the media will forever view him suspiciously & he won’t ever be given the benefit of the doubt again, (b) the public will now associate him with spin as much as Blair and, (c) , whenever the next election comes up, inevitably, the public will be reminded of his behaviour in 2007.
(3) Labour strategy - If they follow the standard NuLab gameplan, I expect they will now be thinking how best to neuter the Conservatives. This will probably include; (a) moves to restrict political funding outside election time to stem Ashcroft (yes, they will try) (b) a move on IHT/stamp duty and, (c) yet another attempt at portraying “renewal” or “change”.
Personally, I think that is futile. If Brown wants to win, the only way he will manage is to perform expectionally well as a heavyweight over the next 18-months and show-up Camerons inexperience. If he then runs a “who do you trust more?” campaign (1992 style) in 2009, he could stay as the largest party in a hung parliament, but would lose the election after that.
All this *assumes* the Conservatives don’t self-implode in the next 2 years (as we are prone to do) and Cameron stays as leader. It also depends on few by-elections and no major trip-ups by the Tory team.
But, I now think it’s now a damage-limitation exercise for Brown in 2009/2010, rather than an opportunity for strengthening Labours hold on power.
(is that too rambling? sorry)
137. I think many people of political colours thought Brown would be a liability, only die hard Labour Party members thought he was an asset. I wonder if Milliband is waiting until next year to mount a Labour leadership election? This is starting to look like the Major disaster years of 1992-1997!
eyes down for brown bottle in the house!
142.
Polls showed the population preferring Blair to Cameron in the “who do you trust in a crisis question” 60-13. so you’re not correct.
It will be interesting to see how that has moved.
Brown left his handwritten notes on the lectern at the press Conference. He needed cues to remember the porkie pies. Should be good photo for tomorrow’s papers.
It seems to me that you have had a curious mirror-effect here.
Firstly Cameron and the Conservatives wholly under-estimated Gordon Brown. That showed a degree of hubris and inexperience. Personified by Cameron being in the wrong place (Rwanda) at the wrong time (floods in the summer).
Then, unbelievably, Brown and Labour made the same mistake by underestimating David Cameron. Even more hubris but without the excuse of inexperience. Again, the leader in the wrong place (Iraq) at the wrong time (Tory Party conference).
The impact on the parties has, however, been very different. David Cameron’s leadership is now rock solid and I find it difficult to believe that Labour will be able to destabilise him in the future.
Brown, however, has damaged his credibility with the media enormously just at a time when he should be consolidating the positive impression he had been making. It will be quite a challenge for him not to appear a “fag-end” prime minister like Jim Callaghan.
Will be interesting to see how he responds to what will certainly be a tabloid onslaught on the question of a European referendum.
Actually, heres the stats from this weekends YouGov
“Showed a list of words and asked which ones applied to David Cameron and Gordon Brown, Brown still has a more positive all round image. 40% think he is strong, 37% decisive, 40% think he sticks to what he believes in. The only measures where Cameron outscores Brown are Charismatic (34% compared to Brown’s 7%) and ‘in touch with the concerns of ordinary people’ (23% compared to Brown’s 20%).”
http://www.order-order.com/
The close relationship between the Telegraph and Labour. Dacre and the Mail also explained.
Stephen Glover “Last week I suggested that The Daily Telegraph was growing surprisingly close to Gordon Brown. I pointed out that its new political editor, Andrew Porter, is a friend of Mr Brown’s spin doctor, Damian McBride, and that Will Lewis, the Telegraph’s editor, stood and clapped Mr Brown at the Labour Party conference.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/media/article3036410.ece
Do we have a right wing press anymore? The Telegraph Editor claps Brown?
Much as I am pleased with the boost to the Conservative party’s fortunes and the damage done to Brown’s political reputation, we need to keep our feet firmly on the ground.
As your financial adviser would tell you, what goes up can come down, and opinion polls since April have been jumpier than the Mexican Bean futures market. And remember, the opinion polls still point to Labour being the largest party with a uniform swing.
To my mind, the most significant ‘finding’ is the collapse of the LibDems; Labour remain in the high 30s. So we have to be very cautious in our interpretation of the true position on the ground.
I find it hard to believe the LibDems will remain this low - particularly if they have a successful ‘leadership realignment’.
I’m feeling a bit smug about advising people (in early September) to sell Labour after their conference and buy Tories. I said at the time that ‘you’d need a strong stomach’. My own stomach was churning as I followed my own advice.
Best guess for coming opportunities…
Labour will fall below 300 seats, but that’s too far until November’s polls come out. I intend to sell around that level.
Tories have more upside, say 280 being where I’d get out.
LibDems are too hard to call, their seat numbers are dropping, but anyone who’s fought them knows the results will be seat-by-seat. Lots of downside, but no upside.
141
I didn’t see my posts as particularly partisan, I felt that Brown should go, to seek his own mandate. I think it is wrong for there to be a transfer of power whilst in office, without the PM being endorsed by the voters: I still feel that.
I also felt that the pressure, to go to seek that mandate, would become so great, that Brown would have to comply.
Unfortunately, (and I don’t buy the it wasn’t the polls) the relaisation, that he wouldn’t get a majority as large as Blair’s made Brown back off. Even though I think Brown would have still have got a working majority. Cameron’s excellent week in Blackpool, reduced the possible majority, from 60/80 to 20/30, Brown couldn’t accept that.
The Labour Party had better wake up to the fact, it won’t always, (if at all) count on having a large majority, and start preparing for the possibility. Labour’s chances of winning a fourth term, (if desirable) have been greatly diminshed by the events of the last week.
If you think thats partisan, good luck to you!
By the way, what are the odds on a 2008 election now, and who offers them? As a bit of a contrarian, I’d like to put a tenner on at good odds, purely on the basis that a weakened PM is even more vulnerable to events, and that Alexander, Balls, Miliband, and the old New Labour guard will be fighting like cats in a sack if they think Brown is going to get his backside kicked big-time in 2010. What chance a coup, led by someone with more guts than GB?
151. No obvious candidate among that list of nonentities.
ah… spin,
I agree with Tories that GB has got his fingers burnt and would be well advised to tread more cautiously in future .
However I think its still too early to say how much the ’spin’ charge has stuck to him.
He is lucky in that Cameron is/was probably more assosciated with spin .
Cameron’s recent performance gave the impression of ‘authenticity’ and has helped reduce the perception of him as a lurching PR spiv however I think if the Tories continue down the ‘Spin outrage’ line then it will reverse some of their sucessfull rebranding.
This week GB is on the back foot but If I were Dave I wouldn’t want people to start looking at how ’spin free’ His and Osbornes speeches wer( ie - not very) .
The MSM has already given a warning to the Tories by highlighting how absurd their calls for an election were.
142. Casino.. I’m hurt, I’d thought from your posts that you liked partisan bluster, you certainly seem to indulge in it every now and then!
You know it is possible to be honest about your feelings without agreeing that everythings a disaster and we’re bound to lose! i just don’t think it’s that big a deal. As i’ve said before I’d have been happy to go for an election, but I’m relaxed about not, knowing that we’ll get poked with big pointy sticks for a while.
My views on the issues you set out?
1. Election: will likely be May/June 2009. Labour majority in the 20-40 range. LD’s lose 10-20 seats.
2. Brown: He’ll get the poking with pointy sticks, but his performance as Prime Minister will decide how he’ll be percieved by 2009. In the meantime, He’ll get back to focusing on the issues, will face media suspicion, but will be
Ben Brogan thinks Brown did okay at the press conference.
Polician tells lies - shock horror
Mrs T did (about plans for the mines 80-83, before you ask), Churchill certainly did, Attlee did, Disraeli told whoppers
I do tire of the false moral outrage in these cases - its like football fans attitude to their favoured enemy or General Meltchett’s attitude to spies
GB has cocked up badly.He should focus on getting as much through the House by May 2010 to protect against the Tory Counter-Reformation
Des Browne sitting next to Brown, I guess they kissed and made up…OK maybe not
155. Did he watch it?
I think the interesting thing is going to be tonights meeting of the PLP. I think we will know how pissed Labour MP’s are by how much of it gets briefed to the press and in what terms.
154.. err don’t know what happened there.. got cut off.
should read..
..will be well past it in 6 months, and we’ll all have moved on to other crises and other dramas.
3. Labour Strategy: Actually i don’t think we should spend too much time worrying about the Tories. We can’t control what Cameron does, and after the last few weeks wwe should learn not to try! Instead we need to spend our time developing new policies that excite people on Housing, economy/tax, Education and NHS and the politcs of the environment and community.
Finally, It occurs to me watching GB in parliament- he’s much better on serious policy than on on the light footed political dancing. labour people, and wannabees like me need to understand this and be serious, be long term and be focussed on policy. that’s who our PM is, and we should focus on that, not be childish. If we learn this from the events ofthe last week, it’s a valuable lesson.
Am I the only one watching Browns statement or something? Whats going on!
Nick P,
We all warned you in Broxtowe about the sheer incompetence of Bottler Brown but you never listend. We warned you that that Brown who is not capable of running a market stall never mind the country would make mistakes and not have the qualities to cover them without lies and spin! But you did not listen and you pay the price with your job at the next election! You backed Brown with his policies on tax, immigration and obession with making the British born poor worse off! Nick enjoy your last few years in office!
155. Depends what you mean by Okay. Did Brown fall apart and start crying?
No. He did OK.
Did he get angry and shout?
No. He did OK.
Did he make his position better, clear the air, start to move on?
No, he did not. He told more lies which will come back to haunt him, and he reinforced the sense that he is just another liar and spinner. He also looked visibly diminished.
Admittedly it would have taken a politician of consummate charm and skill to talk his way out of that conference unscathed. Brown showed he is very definitely not that kind of politician.
Brown struggling badly in the Commons
158 He was there. I pointed it out, because Ben Brogan has shown exceptional judgement over the past few weeks. My guess is that if he says Brown has got away with not too much damage, he’s right.
164. Yes, floundering. He looked very rattled during that last bit.
Stammering again. too. Poor wee timorous beastie.
87 - Degsy.
I’m afraid that the polls do NOT state that the Tories would have lost comprehensively. In the 49 LAbour marginals
161 no. hes just been duffed up by ming campbell! what can 2500 troops do in iraq? so why will they be left in the country? ming raises valid questions
155 The bad news for GB is that the TV will focus on the GB/DC clash on his announcement during the Tory Party conference on troop numbers in Iraq. Inevitably there was only one winner.
165. Brogan is very deft - as we have agreed. But he claims Brown is now on the front foot!
Ludicrous. Check Brown stammering away in the Commons now. This is not a man on ‘the front foot’.
lol
129. Sean Fear. Spot on.
Also well done in calling the election situation correctly in your Friday slot.
149. No-one want to discuss betting?
170 - Indeed how can you be on any foot when you haven’t got a leg to stand on!
169. You might be right- but I’d be suprised, and frankly a bit saddened, if first billing wasn’t given tothe news that we’re pulling half our troops out of Iraq
156 I tire of the ‘they all do it all the time so that’s OK’ line from people. Yes politicians tell lies - but to have now reached the stage where not only is that unsurprisng but boasting about your integrity and then demonstrating the opposite is a subject for hubris declarations about your moral compass is shameful.
As a teacher part of my remit is to prepare people for a world where doing the right thing must be seen to benefit everyone. Without trust western liberal society is at great risk. Dismissing those of us who think integrity matters seems very Bismarkian but is short sighted and dangerous.
I am not shocked by politicians lying and as a grown up I know it is sometimes necessary (devaluation of the pound for example). It is the constant petty lying about silly things that discredits the political process. Brown had a great opportunity to be different - he failed to do that.
BBC still placing his denials above the Iraq annoucement, too.
Brown now lying again in the Commons, about the 270 troops double-counted.
87 - Degsy.
I’m afraid that the polls do NOT state that the Tories would have lost comprehensively. In the 49 LAbour marginals, the Tories were 6 per cent ahead. Moreover, the polls regularly understate the Tory vote. There is a very good chance that Cameron would have come out of a GE leading the largest Party.
Frankly, Cameron would have been mad not to have wanted a GE. He (and Brown) knew that the Tories were ahead in the marginals from their private polling. There had been many leaks to that affect, and he knew that a GE would have emasculated the Brown administration.
The only reason that Brown took so long to call it all off was that he had set so many hares running that it took a lot of work to stop them all.
174 Of course they will highlight the troop number reduction announcement. However, the most arresting tv footage will be the clash on the troop level annnouncement in Basra.
I don’t know whether anyone has mentioned it in the past few days, but Mike Smithson’s long argued that the key strategist in Team Cameron is George Osborne and that, in the words of Michael Bentine; “He’s a genius.” Some scoffed. They won’t now.
167/178. I’ve always said (well, I *have* said previously
) that Blair was worth 40-50 seats for Labour. If Smith had been in charge in 1997, I’d have confidently shaved 80-100 seats off Labours landslide majority and, again, in 2001 and GE 2005 would have been fully competitive.
How can I say that? Suppose I can’t with any certainty, but that’s what my instinct, reading of middle-england and some opinion polls tell me.
I think Labour ditched 30 seats straight-away when Brown took over. He just looks TOO Labour. Sounds silly, but you’d be surprised at how many people were (are) genuinely convinced Blair was a closet Tory. Ain’t the case with Brown.
150/154 - Sorry guys, but your posts are unrefreshingly partisan. They don’t tell me anything the Nulab spin machine doesn’t and pay the minimum of lip-service to the thought that Labour might (just might) have got it ever-so-slightly not perfect, just this once..
I can certainly be partisan (and insulting) on occassion, depending on my mood, but I like to think I add a nice dose of realism and frank analysis to balance it up.
Sadly, I’m afraid, you gentlemen do not.
180. Mike Smithson a sharper observer than oafs like Roger et al. no surprise there surely.
180-
Im definately more impressed by Osborne and think he has saved himself getting the chop.
For him the conference was an absolute triumph moving from weakest link to Saviour !
He is definately looking more assured and effective but it depends on how the policies pan out - if the figures/legalities do not stack up then he could be back as Scapegoat No 1.
I dont think people will forget his distancing of Cameron either(for good or bad).
George Osbourne is no more a genius than Gordon Brown is a prima ballerina.
Lets just say there are some Labour figures, who’ll be getting a thorough lashing from yours truly should they cross my path. You can be certain of it.
184 - Stitched Labour up over tax though. Stitching them up if the try to steal the policies, comprehensively kebabbed Labour/Gordon Brown over the election. Genius maybe, but he is clearly razor sharp.
there was one brown bottle sitting next to Balls
one brown bottle sitting next to Balls
and if one brown bottle should accidentally fall…….
183.”I dont think people will forget his distancing of Cameron either(for good or bad).”
If you believe that then you are seriously underestimating that team, go read the article.
180. That’s interesting;
Osbourne - has a brilliant mind and is a strategic thinker, but is only an average speaker & he can’t deliver jokes for toffee. Wish he would sort out his voice. Sort of man who’ll “grow into his age” if you know what I mean..
Cameron - is a very shrewd man, but not an intellectual. He can deliver a speech brilliantly, but he’s not a “big-ideas” man. That’s not to say he’s stupid, not in the least, he’s very witty, emotionally intelligent and empathatic with people. Has a short temper. It’s got better, needs work. He also needs to work on his seriousness and learn to project himself as a heavyweight.
As a pair, they complement each other very well.
” Firstly Cameron and the Conservatives wholly under-estimated Gordon Brown. ”
I don’t think we underestimated him as a PM, we underestimated his relentless moves to undermine the opposition at the cost of everything else.
Osbourne produced the rabbit out of the hat Cameron needed. He had a very good conference and secured his position as Shadow Chancellor.
I still think he’s annoying, self regarding little git!- But yes, he did well for his boss- though whether the thing will stand up in the long term is a whole different question.
In fact, sod that, I’m just as good at kicking butts via email
Update - New Populus Poll overnight
The first poll which will measure reaction to Brown’s election retreat on Saturday is due to be published in the Times tomorrow. The mnormal practice for this survey is for fieldwork to begin on the Friday and continue until Sunday. So maybe 45% of the survey took place after Brown’s news became public.
” Oops
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7030377.stm
Appparently robot calls to find out voters intentions are illegal under EU legislation. Which political party, never intending to call an election, could have been using them?
Well done Lib Dems! ”
It’d be worth spending a couple of thousand on doing this in a strong Lib Dem seat (contridiction?), but not having a Lib Dem option for them to select.
…For Labour press 1…For Conservative press 2…for Green press 3…For UKIP press 4…For BNP press 5…For Raving Monster Loony press 6…
“though whether the thing will stand up in the long term”
It didn’t stand up over lunch time.
168. The media are probably rowing back hastily from their assertion that this is the equivalent of the ERM. It’s only in media world where not getting a scoop is worse than the ERM (in 1992, loads of people lost money, businesses, houses, saw taxes rise and then tax money wasted on currency shennanigans) or worse than Iraq (which was a war for heavens sakes). In the real world, the voters think that deciding not to waste everyone’s time and money calling an un-necessary election, is a Very Sensible Thing. Yes, there are some smiles at the messiness of the decision and presentation of it, but to some minds this proves that New Labour Mark II doesn’t know how to spin properly. And the public likes the sight of a contrite Labour party (and the party is contrite.
I am also uneasy at people trying to scapegoat a few. We are all equals in the Labour party, and all grown-ups and responsible for what comes out of our own mouths. If some of us had the sense to hold our tongues, then everyone could have if they chose - claiming that they got misled by Mr Alexander and Mr Balls, and weren’t able to think for themselves is daft. Also, if some people are guilty of getting too excited, then us doubters are also guilty of not doing enough to calm things down. In the parliamentary party, a few like Denis McShane wrote pieces in the Guardian saying an election was un-necessary, but others who had doubts didn’t say anything. It’s no good them now saying “I told you so” after the event. We all have parts to play (however small) and collective responsibilty in the Labour party. Lets not be like the Tories where their membership childishly accepts responsibility for nothing, and lays it all on the leadership (whom they decapitate every so often).
Re Mike’s point in the previous thread that the new crop of Labour ministers are not so good at “bruising” as the old crop - this is because they’ve only been in the crucible for a very short time. The problem dates back to the 2001 parliament, when Blair was reluctant to promote people and the same old faces got shuffled. It’s a sharp contrast with the way Kinnock brought on the young Blair and Brown in the late 80’s, when they were in their early thirties. By the time they got to power in their forties, they’d had a decade’s experience of bruising. By contrast, our new ministers are in their forties, but have just three months of experience in the limelight. There is nothing we can do about this - time and experience will take care of it. In a year or two they’ll be bruising with the best of them.
191. I still think he’s annoying, self regarding little git!
Pathetio.
196. Insane.
A very good point Snowflake (196) - or can I call you Ed Balls?
Snowballs was your nickname at Nottingham High and you use Snowflake here.
184.
:roll: 
:roll: 
196 - If you genuinely believe that then I feel sorry for you.
Does anyone have any information on Brown’s Constitutional Reforms? Watch out there will be booby traps in it - England does not exist, foreigners given full voting rights, indigenous English population forced to pay Council Tax in full before they can vote, increase the numbers of Scottish/Welsh MPs, allow MEPs from all other countries to vote in the House of Commons particularly on matters of national importance. The man is more dangerous than Saddam Hussein ever was.
189 Just so long as Osborne always remembers that he will have to always play the supporting role. No matter how clever he is he can’t be the Lead actor. You just look at him and hear him and know he lacks that Star quality, to be the front man to the Public
196. Snowflake:
“Yes, there are some smiles at the messiness of the decision and presentation of it, but to some minds this proves that New Labour Mark II doesn’t know how to spin properly. And the public likes the sight of a contrite Labour party (and the party is contrite).”
So, if I read you right, this whole affair of Yellow Saturday and the great Gordon Brown Festival of Lies has actually been…. GOOD for Labour? Because this whole shameful mess proves that you are, aw, shucks, just kinda authentic, y’know?
Is that right? Is that your angle - sort of, Sure we can’t spin like old Tony Blair, and, shoot, we made a whoopsy calling for elections we can’t win and then lying about it through our teeth, but hey, doesn’t that make us more “lovable”?
I don’t know which to do first: laugh or puke.
198. Sigh - the conspiracy theorists attack again. If I’m Ed Balls (who had been enthusiastic about an election), how come all my posts here over the last few weeks have been lukewarm about an election? (looking forward to your theories about dopplegangers, secret twins, parallel universes etc).
204. Snowflake, I don’t think you Ed Balls. I think you a deluded cretin.
“how come all my posts here over the last few weeks have been lukewarm about an election?”
To throw us off the scent?
197. If calling someone “a self regarding, annnoying little git” fuses your outrage-o-meter,
O/T betfair question - I am seriously all green on every possible date for a GE - why wont b/f pay out on at least the smallest win option immediately ?
I think Michael Portillo focussed on the key word on the World at One. and the thing that’s changed for Gordon Brown:
REPUTATION
It has suffered a massive shift. Now, once shifted, it can be more difficult to move than an oil tanker wedged on a sandbank.
203. SeanT - come back to earth. All that’s happened is that a decision has been made not to call an election. That’s all. We don’t have two-and-a-half year parliaments you know. The public wasn’t keen and didn’t see the point. Some people have had a good laugh at us, and that’s OK - we can take a bit of teasing. No one had died, no one has lost money or jobs, we haven’t lost an election. In the grand scheme of things this is really minor.
Public reaction to this has been a great big shrug. I know to you this is a Great Deal - the event of the century and all that. But real people don’t see it that way.
205. No - clearly a comedian of the highest order. The Labour Party as ‘contrite’? ‘We are all equals in the Labour party’? Hilarious stuff.
210 - Most of you can’t take a bit of teasing though. More Labour lies!
211 is stan boardman up next???
Sky 5 o’clock news. I don’t think Sky have been “squared” yet.
ps Just seen Ben Brogan on the telly: he has Alistair Darling’s hair……and eyebrows !
210. We shall see. I think this may be as bad as Black Wednesday - but in a different way.
Of course the ERM disaster was much more important economically and fiscally, etc etc, but Yellow Saturday will I think prove a similar watershed, because it will see permanent and crippling damage to Brown’s reputation.
I don’t think he will ever fully recover from this.
Today the whole country saw him lie. Blatantly. Again. Do you believe that, if the polls were predicting a 100 seat majority, he would still have called off the election? As he claimed in the conference?
Do you?
Do you?
Really?
Your man with the moral compass, son of the manse, mister dependable, has turned out to be a devious opportunist and an incompetent dissembler. This is Not Good. I’m sorry, because I know it must pain you, but it is the case.
The problem for Labour is that there are two Labour Parties, Scottish Labour Party and the (British) Labour Party. They are different and have different priorities and Brown is a member of the Scottish Party.
A three-way arb for y’all:
Most 180s - Painter vs Scholten (tomorrow)
Painter 9/2 (Skybet)
Tie 7/2 (Skybet)
Scholten Evens (Betfred)
90.4% book
Scholten was 11/8 until recently (82.5% book)! For what it’s worth I think this price is the wrong one, so I would advise staking 20 on Painter, 25 on the tie and 45 on Scholten (or multiples thereof).
213. Bernard Manning perhaps? He would have enjoyed ‘British jobs for British workers’
218 it was a great programme….. roy walker…..mike read….etc classic
carlos at 162: hello, I recognise your idiosyncratic spelling from your emails. You didn’t vote for me last time either, did you?
Witan at 106: Yes? Produce the quote in which I said I sure the Labour majority would rival 1997, and I’ll donate £100 to the charity of your choice. Alternatively, as seanT would put it, stop lying to us. But I’m sorry that ‘faux’ offends your patriotic sensibilities.
Tyson at 110/121: I disagree (and if I didn’t I wouldn’t air my feelings on this website). The underlying reason that Labour is in its third term is that we’ve retained a degree of collective discipline. There have been much, much more controversial things since 1997 than the timing of an election. We won a majority after the fuel protest that had the country at a standstill, and we won another after Iraq. The next polls will no doubt be lousy. They’ve been lousy before. Do they tell us much about an outcome in 2009? Probably not. Calm down!
Interestingly I don’t think Labour have ever done well with leaders from the celtic fringe.
Guido has a scoop on Gordo’s tax panic latest..
http://www.order-order.com/2007/10/exclusive-tax-policy-emergency-call-in.html
217 - apologies - staking plan should read 65 on Scholten!!!
Dear Snowflake, drop your NuLab texted briefings. No one has died? How many die in Iraq on a daily basis.
The man with his finger up his nose reduced military expenditure by £7bn and then sent troops into war, without equipment, without armoury and without homes and hospitals to come home to.
He then arrangesa photocall to flash those oh so expensive new teeth with the troops he has betrayed.
He didnt call an election because, unlike the troops, he is a yellow bellied, two timing coward.
Get a reality check for once
220. Nice to see Nick has calmed down a bit now - he sounded very batey earlier on.
On Radio 4 now Des Browne had to be asked 8 or 9 times before he would answer that he had been part of the decision on troop reductions. For most of the time he would only say he was ‘aware’ of the decision.
He might be a part time Sec State for Defence but that is silly.
220 The Nick P Fightback continues!
226. “batey”?… are you the fat owl of the remove or something?
224. I thought your big claim was that not calling an election was More Important than the Iraq war and the equivalent of the ERM.
By mentioning Iraq you are making my point for me. Deciding not to call an election early is really minor stuff. Nobody dies if you decide not to call an elecion early, nobody loses any money. People do die sadly in Iraq - but it didn’t affect the election in 2005. So where is your reasoning that deciding not to call an election is more important?
As for claims like “coward” and “yellow-bellied” - it’s the stuff of the playground. In the adult world only people with low self-esteem get goaded into taking actions that arn’t in their interests by such taunts. We’re grown-ups in labour - we can shrug it off. Taunt away all you like, sweetie, if it makes you feel important.
Tyson. I’m not surprised at the garbage many others have written today but I’m surprised at you. Brown made a foolish mistake. He ramped up the possibility of an election because the polls told him he’d win a landslide.
Following the various conferences and particularly the Tories tax offer the chances of this reduced to less than 50/50 that this would happen. Under those circumstances he had no choice but to call no election. His humiliation would have been far greater if his majority had reduced.
His opponent has spent two years on one PR stunt after another. The only reason Brown got 13 points up in the polls in the first place was because voters were just sick of Cameron’s stunts. However bad this misjudgement is on a scale of “Cameron’s Conservatives” in Ealing and his choice of a DJ Labour donor as his chosen candidate this was pretty insignificant.
230. Roger, just a few days ago you were confidently telling Gordon he should go for it, and that he would definitely win by 80-100 seats?
What happened, my old banana? Eh? 80-100 seats? Mm?
I hate to gloat, but…
80-100 seats.
Mmf.
*stifles laughter with scatter cushion*
231. Oh dear - the in-fighting has started already
Snowflake, do remind usof what that great Staesman Lord Kinnock said at Bourneymouth (thats how the Great British Brown pronounces it). Was that stuff of playground?
Wroger, very late. It appears to have has taken you a whole day to draft this one.
Snowflake, cooo-ee! Can I have an answer to my question -
Do you believe what Gordon Brown said today at the conference? i.e. Do you believe him, when he says that, if the polls were predicting a 100 seat majority, he would still have called off the election?
Mm?
228 re “Batey”. I thought it was reference to the old gameshow Mr & Mrs. Perhaps when Nick is canvassing he asks the person answering the door how their spouse will vote
233. Come, you can do better than that. I’m surprised you haven’t called us “Hitler” for not having an early election (but that’s usually Martin Day’s line, no doubt he’ll be along to deliver it shortly).
234. There was uncertainty about an election, esp with postal strikes etc. And even if the polls predicted 100 seats, there was no guarantee we’d get it as our people don’t like going to vote in the cold and dark. The history of New Labour is one of distrust of polls - see what happened in 1992.
229 Snowflake - character matters in a politician, especially one who based his party’s campaigning around himself and his moral compass, his vision and his comptence. Danny Finkelstein says exactly what Gordon should have done and said, in public , to a press conference.
http://www.timesonline.typepad.com/comment/
As in other political storms, its the cover up that is often worse than the event. He had played the game badly, been caught out and damaged his party’s standing but it happened, take the pain and move on (worked for Blair). He is damaged permanently, but I’d agree not severely. People never quite forget (and if they start to someone is there to remind them)
Also the world isn’t divided into Labour people and the rest, who somehow lack moral fibre.
I, for one, would like to thank the Conservative Party for mounting such resistance to the (not so) Great Clucking Fist and in doing so stopped the Labour Government from abusing our democratic system and constitution yet again!
134 Madasafish
Sorry - Came on a bit harsh with you! What I meant was - if you don’t believe/ trust politicians, why do you try to discuss things on a site where many, if not a majority, of people are politicians? I would say it is great that others come on here to discuss things, and clearly there are people who some wouldn’t trust. BUT, why make over the top and generalised remarks which may well upset some?
236. Just a yes and no answer will do. Let me try again:
When Gordon Brown says that even if the polls had been predicting a massive landslide for Labour he would still have called off the election, because he wants time to show his “vision for Britain” - do you believe him?
226
I listened to Des Brown. If it is possible for an interviewee to look shifty on radio, Des Brown managed it. The interviewer got very impatient with him.. well done the BBC for once (no the management but the workers:-).
Des Brown came over as what he is : part time.
The Iraqiness has been made all possible by the deals done with Al Sadr and so forth to ensure a quiet exit of British troops. Those prisoner releases were particularly handy.
Be interesting to see if both sides keep to the bargain.
My feeling is that he would have bettered his 2005 majority but the odds were only about 50/50.
There was the question of turnout for an ‘unnecessary’ election and the problem of dealing with Osborne’s tax promise. My only criticism was the trip to Iraq. Frankly that reeked of Blair and Cameron and I’d hoped Brown would be better than that. Nonetheless this will be forgotten in two weeks and Brown will still be a much safer pair of hands than his opponent.
When I said that at his conference Dave gave the finest speech of his generation Roger mocked and insulted me. However, has any other piece of political oratory in recent times achieved a) the unification of a party that was hitherto a torn and demoralized rabble b) the forcing of a Prime Minister into an ignominious retreat from a planned election leaving his reputation for honesty and political skill in tatters c) the turning of a ten-point polling deficit into a three-point lead in barely over a week?
I hope Roger will now agree that I was right, and I trust he will apologize with good grace.
Trevor Kavanagh absolutely scathing on the PM programme. He as much as accused Brown of lying.
re 193 Kavanagh was claiming that this wouldn’t show a Tory lead. As it’s in the Times I suppose he would know if anyone did.
BBC opens 6 news with camerons assault on brown “…this is not the way for a PM to behave” etc
Cameron has got the sound byte on BBC 6.00 news
244. Stark Raving. I wouldn’t rate it in the top five of the last fifteen years. Brown and Osborne did the unifying not Cameron. Indeed if Cameron hadn’t spoken I don’t believe it would have affected the outcome.
Excellent time for the Lib Dems to get their act together under a serious new leader…. perhaps
240. I do believe him. It’s in his character. For example he was deeply worried about foot and mouth in the 2001 election (and we were miles ahead in the polls, and the election delivered a 150+ seat majority). Everyone of the 1992 generation distrusts polls at the best of times.
Nick P,
I entirely agree that there are far more substantial matters, such as Iraq, but as a Labour supporter I find it amazing that we got in to this position. It is quite clear that the PMs team were briefing stuff about an election, which led to:
1) Tories unifying at conference
2) Labour embarrassment when PM says there would not be an election
This was totally unnecessary. When it comes to the substance I am a big fan of GB but I think he has got to be a little bit less political and just focus on getting the plaudits for the outcomes. I also feel that some of the people around him need to be reigned in a little. You can’t say to Marr I am not going to give a running commentary on the election whilst all your aides are doing exactly that.
239
Tim
Well just look at the events of the last week. Politicians are judged . not always but often.. by the utterances of the most prominent.
I apologise by being generally rude about all politicians and retract my generalisation. BUT if you are like me, an interested voter, and listen to what senior politicians say, frankly a lot of it is a gross insult to voters’ intelligence. And it assumes we cannot recall from 1 year to the next what politicians say or do.
Well some of us remember the lies and spin over WMD from both Labour AND Conservative politicians. And a certain Mr A Campbell. And this recent “will there/won’t ther?” episode has clearly been terminated by lies. And the whole affair of Sate Pensions over the past 40 years - delinking from Average Earnings etc.. - has been an object lesson that one one politician promises something, 5 years or more on his successor will gaily forget that promise.
It has got worse. And worse. I’m not a raving Europhobe… but even I welcomed the promised Referendum on the Eurpean constitution. Less than 3 years after that promise, it’s called a Treaty .. so we will not have a vote.
I tell you this. If an estate agent or second hand car salesman behaved like that.. but they cannot and get away with it.
If you want to know why I and many others think politcians are regarded with such distrust, the answers are here in front of you. No wonder voter %s are falling. Politicians make promises they clealry have no intention of keeping..and then dissemble.
Rant over.
PS I also expect Brown to pull ahead in the polls quite soon. I’ve been out all day and not a single person mentioned Brown! It’s nothing but a media event
252. i agree and you speak for many more people than our politicians realise
It’s abundantly clear from the press conference this morning and this afternoon’s dismal performance in the House that Brown will lie, lie, and lie again in the most barefaced way in a desperate attempt to extricate himself from the shit.
Sadly for him this is at the expense of what little credibility he had left.
With his short term expediency, Bottler Brown seems to be a man who thinks that tomorrow never comes, but it does Gordon, it does.
220 Nick Palmer Not very parliamentary language accusing me of lying. I put it down to anxiety at the mess your leader is in.
You may recall saying the following:
“I’ll stick my neck out and make a few predictions:
1. Cameron’s speech will be seen as very successful.
2. The first poll afterwards will show something close to level pegging
3. The polls next week will show Labour moderately ahead.
4. The election will happen this year.
5. Labour will win by a larger majority than today, and we’ll increase our Broxtowe majority.
I’m not going to argue or even defend any of these points”
Or perhaps you recall this bit of building hubris:
pent the afternoon canvassing in Awsworth, a marginally Tory ward, and by coincidence they’d all just had a 4-page Tory glossy this morning. The former Labour vote was much as usual - 80% solid, 20% somewhere between “yeah probably” and “not sure”. The former Tory vote was less than 50% solid - some Brown converts (notably older people) and lots saying they really didn’t know this time, might not vote at all.”
Or perhaps this:
“Having been a bit cautious about YouGov I’m impressed by that one -Populus nowadays has quite a sharp turnout filter. It’s presumably from just after The Speech (remember Matt saying how rubbish it was?) but still. And yes, that is landslide territory, and a market on whether the Conservative Party will be called something else within 12 months might be worth opening. To be precise, Labour’s lead in 1997 was 12.5%, converting into a majority of 179. I don’t think we’d quite achieve that, but 100 looks increasingly possible.”
You will recall what I said, and you characterised as lying , was this:
…”even from your good self something about majorities for Labour in the election you were sure was coming to rival 1997.”
You will note that it does not say a majority such as 1997.
Would you like to continue with you assertion that I am lying?
Which would cheer up Tories here more in the coming opinion polls…
a) a Tory lead
b) a Labour lead so Brown certainly is a bottler
?
Blair always looked a winner - after just three months, this bloke looks a certain loser.
256
It appears to be a recurring characteristic of New Labour/Brownites to accuse their opponents of that of which they are most guilty themselves. Hence their constant assertions of “lying” directed at the opposition.
In the world of psychology I believe it’s known as “transference” or “mirroring”.
254
Thank you.
Prediction time for poplous poll.
I predict 3 or point tory lead - Populous tpreviously, had thought polls would revert back to 4/5 point Lbaour lead after Tory confernce bounce, but the weekend meedia was pretty rough, and Tory hunger to vote will be high and the reverse will true for Labour… Tory 40/41, Lab 37, LD 15.
I think there was something prophetic about the Saatchi & Saatchi ad - ‘Not Flash Just Gordon’. They were right, the ‘Flash’ has gone in a flash and now there is just Gordon.
Whatever happens he is starting again and listening to Nick Robinson tonight he has a lot to prove to journalists and therefore the public before they will so readily accept his projection of himself and his ‘vision’ again.
257 excellent question. the answer is ‘a’ every time because it proves that he is lying about the reasons for his decision and it cements the perception he is a loser. he didnt call an election because he saw that he would lose. nobody wants to see answer ‘b’ ever again
261 Apparently Kavanagh of the Sun has said no Tory lead in it. If true, he is more likely to be right than he is not
jsfl the slogan then should be one of the following:
One flash, then Gordon.
Gone in a flash Gordon.
No flash, just Gordon
193/257. I don’t know how much truth there is in this BUT..
Let me repeat; “I don’t know how much truth there is in this BUT” I just heard some bloke from the Independent (political editor) say on the PM programme:
**I understand the Populus Poll due to be released tomorrow does not show a Tory lead**
Now, I have no idea if this is true - how would he know? early figures? - but the last Populus Poll didn’t show a Tory lead either.
If Labour still has a lead, it would suggest people have now lost interest in the election saga and the worst is over for them. Let’s not overegg our position. Cameron will need to do much more to stay on top of the game.
We’ll have to see.. I’m not expecting fireworks for us tomorrow!
264. Wrong way round. That was the Independent bloke who said that.
266. if so good news for us, but.. (usual early poll news are unreliable caveats apply) ..I think it’s fair to say that the bucket of ordure that has been dumped over Labour over the weekend would likely have a delayed effect. Things could very likely get worse before they get better.
I’d thought the underlying situation was a decnt Labour lead, but in the short term It’s got to be worse for us than that.
Which is the odd one out: United kingdom, Ukraine, Iraq, Poland?
United Kingdom is the one wihout an elected Prime Minister
269 - Blair wasn’t an elected Prime Minister either. We don’t elect Prime Ministers in the UK. In fact, few countries do. OK, Israel does, but I can’t think of others.
Blair was leader of a party that got 36% of the vote in a GE. The idea that this gave him a legitimacy that Brown does not have I cannot fathom.
270 More legitimacy than 22.6%……..
re 266 it was Trevor Kavanagh NOT Andrew Grice who said it and I would have thought that he knew because the Sun and Times journalists speak to each other over a cup of tea, or whatever.
Madasafish
I am sure you will note from my own rant at 107, that I share many of your views on the current issues surrounding the calling off of the non-election - and also the cynical reasoning behind the possibility of having one in the first place. Anyway, we can get back now to deciding what are actually lies and/or spin, and what may be for real!!
210 Snowflake “We don’t have two-and-a-half year parliaments you know.”
Tony Blair obviously thought so! After repeatedly promising to serve a “full term” in the 2005 election, he called it quits after two-and-a-half years!
Shame, after all those Tory “lies” about “Vote Blair - Get Brown”
271 - yes, I can’t argue with the fact that Labour got more votes than the LDs.
But the idea that Brown has to go and get 36% for himself (like Blair), I think is daft. Of course, if he had a right to go for a GE, but it’s a misrepresentation to suggest “Blair was elected PM, and Brown wasn’t”. We don’t have a Presidential system.
275 True, but as mentioned earlier we do have a convention whereby the government has to follow the manifesto it was elected on, so when the new leader announces that he has a vision for change….
SBS.
you are right in your comments but I suspect wrong in your conclusions.
We certainly do not have a presidential system and we certainly do not vote for Prime Minister. But neither do we vote for parties. We vote for individual constituency representatives who are at liberty to align themselves as they will in Parliament.
The only thing voted for is MPs. The sooner people start remembering that and acting upon it to reduce the power of the parties the better.
re 267 Yes definitely Kavanagh at 44m21s.
277 - so would a 36% share for a Brown-led Labour constitute a mandate for Brown as PM?
279. Nope, It doesn’t work like that as well you know.
What matters is whether he commands a majority in the house. Personally as I have said on here before I would like to see the whips abolished so that the only way to secure such a majority would be by power of argument. I would see the use of the whips to force MPs to vote in a particular way be made as illegal as bribing them.
In the meantime we shoudl resit any move such as the one I believe you support to make Parliament more ‘representative’. What this actually means is more representative for the parties not for the individual MPs.
Ity is disingenuous to say that having any form of PR would be more representative of the wishes of the people. We would still have most parties on the percentages they are now but all that would happen is they would do what happens in Norway, Germany and almost every other country with PR and they would use the resulting coalition as an excuse to renage on their promises as MPs.
I don’t claim the system is by any means perfect but it is a hell of a lot better than giving yet more power to the parties.
re 280 Totally agree, the whip system entirely corrupts politics in this country. The US isn’t perfect but at least members of Congress tend to vote with the conscience more often than here.
And support STV the only system which gives power to the electors. You’re a Labour supporter and your favourite MP reneges on his promises, then don’t give him your first preference next time, but give it to one of his colleagues.
280. Here here.
Sean, I’ve now discovered what the T stands for: Tedious.
Come back when you’ve finished your box of tissues, will you?
Well you politicians may not think we have a Presidential system.
From where I sit: the PM has power to declare war.
The PM appoints Ministers.
The PM appoints Lords.
The PM can call elections (subject to notional monarchial approval)
The PM is effectively above the law in his personal behaviour when in office.
The PM can effectively introduce new laws without Parlianmentary approval - Orders in Council.
The PM appoints the Archbishop of Canterbury.
Sound smore powerful than a President to me. Looks like a President. Acts like one.
Sounds like acts like a President.
More dire headlines for Brown/Labour on BBC/ITN this evening. Labour’s poll ratings must be in free-fall at the moment.
It may not be that apparant in tonights Populus poll, but I think that by the end of the week/weekend, we’ll see polls showing Labour in the low 30’s. I also think Browns personal ratings on things like trust and stregnth will take a major hammering.
281. “The US isn’t perfect but at least members of Congress tend to vote with the conscience more often than here.”
While it may be true that MCs don’t vote to secure the allegiance of party leadership, that does not mean they vote with their conscience. They usually vote to win support of special interest groups who will finance their next campaign.
Not that this is their fault of course. With election spans as short as two years and campaign finance so deregulated, they have to behave like that just to keep up with their opponents.
I’d agree with STV being the best system, especially if it facilitated various candidates from the same party competing against each other. It would allow a much more competitive system which would increase accountability and decrease corruption.
284. But his power depends on maintaining parliamentary backing - if the US had a parliamentary system George Bush would have been kicked out by now. This is the most important fact regarding the office, and one you fail to acknowledge.
285. There is the danger, however, that the more the media bang on about something that’s not all that important, Brown will start to appear as unfairly victimised as Cameron was seen during the drugs accusations.
Witan AKA Blue2Win. I think if the British public have to choose between the longest serving and most successful Cnancellor since the war and a very average PR man from Carlton Communications who like most Account execs learnt to do presentations without notes then there really is no contest.
289. Did you ever pause to consider that voters might be more interested in the beliefs and arguments of the two men rather than their previous jobs?
288. Maybe. But honestly, I don’t think so. The public know Labour are the one’s that stoked all this up, after all. Give it a few more days to filter through the publics psyche, and you’ll start seeing some terrible polls for Labour, IMO.
287-And Clinton in 1994. So?
Given the crisis in Government at the moment surely it won’t be long before John Reid is out on the airwaves to defend his old mate. I’m sure Gordon would be pleased with that.
Honest replies…
Are Labour in Crisis?
I’ve not posted since the election cancelation. My view is this.
1. Impact on real people very limited. No one really wanted an election outside the “Bubble”. However I expect browns “strong leader” ratings to take a big short term hit.
2. Impact on the political clasess massive. Surely one of the great self inflicted PR disasters of modern politics. Big effects on internal morale and the media will punish Brown for this big time. I was genuinely speechless when he didn’t have the bottle to come out and talk outside number 10. Instead a pre recorded interview with one BBC stooge. Non BBC media will give pay back for that.
3. In the end calling an election on the basis of post conference frothy polls was always a bonkers idea. I sort of admire him for not going along with the train time tables of august and calling off an unecessery risk. However in PR terms its a catastrophy and an entirely self inflicted one. he gets what he deserves for abusing Crown perrogative in this way.
4. Once the media has had a S and M fest with browns reputation they will go after Ming. No election till 2009 gives ample time for a coup, leadership election and bedding in. Unless theres a massive and sustained up turn in the polls I predict now that Ming will jump or be pushed. Potentially quite soon.
283, Sara. “Come back when you’ve finished your box of tissues”.
??
I’m trying to work out what this sentence means. It has the tone and syntax of a joke, but it is entirely lacking in humour, wit, intelligence, or indeed sense.
Confusing.
292. So a Prime Minister has to maintain support among his contemporaries in parliament at all times. If his behaviour becomes so terrible in the eyes of parliament (or in the eyes of the country and his party MPs start to worry about their own survival) then he can be turfed out at any time. This is an extremely important check on power.
You could also diminish the power of the whips by having a secret ballot on the division on one reading of a bill.
By the way it’s worth looking at Mr Reid’s page on wikipedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Reid_%28politician%29
On Populus it will be interesting if they do a pre-election news:post election news split on the sample. Polling took place all day on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Whatever I’m expecting maybe a 0-1% Tory margin.
I think that Labour’s lead will return next month but not on the scale that we have seen.
This is an excellent point. By allowing our PM to excercise the Crown Perrogative he/she weilds power that most Executive Presidencies would die for. Having said that Bush would have been out on his ear by now in a parliamentary system. can you imagine Bush having to work the HoC? he’d have been lucky to have ever becomme a junior minister at the welsh office.
298. But with a secret ballot electors could not hold their representatives accountable.
297 except it doesnt work - iraq, torture flights, etc
300. Polls conducted at the weekend will show no real signal about what impact the election fiasco has had. I have a rule of thumb that any one event takes at least 2-3 days to work its way through the publics mood. Wait for the polls at the end of the week, to have a clearer idea what effect these terrible headlines have had.
296:’283, Sara. “Come back when you’ve finished your box of tissues”.
??
I’m trying to work out what this sentence means.’
I hope no onanistic reference is being made. Please consider the tone of this site.
It doesn’t matter anymore what the polls say. A Lab lead now would be ideal. They can’t capitalise, and it would stop Tory complacency.
We have another year to work. We must work.
294 “Are Labour in Crisis?”
Yes Labour have a crisis of honesty and decency. It is precisely why the Scum of the Manse can stand in front of the nation and blatantly lie. the man truly is in Moral Compost. If I were a Labour supporter I would find it frankly embarrassing and shameful, tribal loyalties or not.
Extremely friendly PLP meeting today - opinions on recent events are, um, mixed, but virtually everyone who spoke was supportive and GB was in as good form as I’ve seen him. Harriet Harman also getting quite a few plaudits for consulting marginals during the week running up to the decision.
256: Yes, witan, your quote “…majorities for Labour in the election you were sure was coming to rival 1997.” is not sustained by any of the quotes, none of which are “sure” about anything, let alone a majority rivalling 1997. But now you’ve fairly posted both your quote and mine, others can decide for themselves. (If you’re an MP, you can always break cover and I’ll be careful to use parliamentary language to your honourable self, but I can be as rude as I like to pseudonyms!)
Mike at 300 “I think that Labour’s lead will return next month but not on the scale that we have seen” - that is a very interesting observation, and I take your observations seriously.
Without setting off a rehashing the obvious and perhaps unhelpful euphoria amongst (some) Tory posters why do you think after this has all died down there is a small Labour lead?
Is it that you imagine that Brown will be able to keep Cameron off the airwaves for long enough for his poll ratings to slip?
I think the net effect of the last two weeks is that Browns attempts to distance himself from New Labour/Blair spin has comprehensively unravelled and that also Camerons bumpy summer has been nullified - we would be back to where we were in the spring - level pegging or a small Tory lead with Cameron getting a lot of media attention as a result.
307. ‘Scum of the manse’. I do find the moral indignation of many Tories extraordinary. David ‘Lexus’ Cameron, anyone?
Can I also remind people of my link at 299. A very flattering picture of Dr Reid that I found.
306 absolutely - those of the tory persuasion need to keep in mind that all Brown has done is allowed us into the game again after a dreadful summer.
All polls from now until 2009 are irrelevant - tories need to realise the game has barely begun and now, having had our fun at the feartie from Fife’s expense it’s time to start holding this dreadful bunch of lying political pygmies masquerading as a government to account.
For Labour supporters there is plenty of time to show Brown really is the change and even for some decent ministers to be appointed. The easy days of the last 10 years are over though - get used to it; the next election is going to be a fight.
Back to betting (where are you PtP?) - Anyone else think 1.16-1 on Betfair is a ridiculously low price for GE Jan-June 2009 (disclosure of interest - I have backed GE 2010). Were Labour to enter serious negative territory in the polls, as now seems likely, this may continue for a considerable period and it will not be a case of Brown picking a date, more a question of him hanging on for as long as possible.
The only caveat being that GB proves to be not up to the job (a distinct possibility IMO) and resigns/is replaced during the next 18 months and his successor calls an early GE in his/her honeymoon period.
310. It’s cause Brown has made the whole raison d’etre of his premiership the fact that he is different, authentic, not a spinner, not a liar, upright, dependable, boring but decent, hewn from honest Scottish granite, etc etc
Now it turns out he is a powderpuff of a man, scared of a mouse of an opinion poll, who tells lies like a teenage girl caught smoking in the loos.
It’s like walking into your newsagent and finding your bank manager giving head to a seven foot Ukrainian transexual by the Snickers bars.
It’s worse than disturbing. It’s embarrassing.
210 “David ‘Lexus’ Cameron, anyone?”
Come off it Frank. At least Cameron admitted that the bike thing was a stupid stunt. It is nowhere near the scale of going out to Iraq and trying to make political capital out of troops that Brown has spent years underfunding and underequipping. If you honestly think there is moral equivalence there then I pity you.
“It’s like walking into your newsagent and finding your bank manager giving head to a seven foot Ukrainian transexual by the Snickers bars.”
classic, even by your standards!
309. Marcus - let us wait for the numbers before we start the analysis
Mike Smithson
Look we Tories had a great weekend, Brown blinked and his loss of reputation, self inflicted as it is, will remain. But he still has strong allies in the media, he still has the power and patronage of office. He will recover.
We are not going to convert each other on this blog, though its useful to see how the game is going to be fought ongoing from peoples comments. Enough of the insults.
The gift he handed the opposition parties is that he lost, probably 3 to 6 months before he would otherwise, the advantages of being the change. He is no longer the power we feared he was. Having not sought a mandate for his vision, it’s harder for him to justify his programme. He’s been exposed as what he is.
I’ve always said he’d disappoint his party. He will. He’s cuddled up to the Mail, the Telegraph and Murdoch - the only Brown Tory is Gordon Brown. That’s the real danger to the Conservative Party. We face a Christian Democrat opposition not a Labour one. Cameron recognised that which is why he moved to the liberal conservative ground, more free market, more individual rights, more about devolving power. It’s why the real Orange Bookers could be in today’s conservative party, up to a point.
313 “It’s like walking into your newsagent and finding your bank manager giving head to a seven foot Ukrainian transexual by the Snickers bars.”
Where did this come from? Love you or loathe you Sean, no one could possibly deny that you have a lively imagination!
Whatever happens now, my only hope is, that at long last the press will analyse every word that blubbering great lump comes out with, and publishes their findings. Honesty in the press will be the end of Labour, and the only sure way to get rid of them.
Kingbongo. As one of the few interesting and realisic Tory posters I agree with you completely. The slate is pretty well wiped clean. Brown has not been reborn and neither has Cameron changed from the person who went from hero to zero in two months. He has to show he can do more than make speeches without notes and Brown has to realize that his strength is substance not spin. Perhaps the Libs will get a new leader and then politics can return to a question of competing policies.
312. 1.16-1 - wouldn’t that imply a 45% chance of a 2009 election?
Seems about right. Possibly worth a lay though in case some dramatic downturn occurs in Q4 2009 which pushes the election back. Can’t see much value in that price though.
As Mike Smithson has said, much better value in laying the “all 3-leaders in post for next GE” on betfair at roughly the same price.
Might be worth betting on a Labour majority too for a price change lay?
I’d have to put my money on may 2009 and I will. Don’t forget that June 2009 sees the Euro Elections which will be horrible for Labour, as usual. Who would want to go after that? And holding on to 2010 smells of Major.
My local Tories seem to be indulging in the same sort of rhetoric as they are here. Funny really, I gave them an absolute pasting last May in the locals and they know I will again next May. Mind you their MP remains as safe as houses, but then he is very modest (and has a lot to be modest about) and doesn’t spend all his time digging his own grave!
So, my money is on May 2009 and a Labour Majority similar to where it is today. Tories up by a handful and LD’s down by 10. All in all a damp squip rather than a firecracker election.
The one punt I’d love to make - does anyone know where I can better on there never being another Tory Government? Perhaps my Great Great Grandson to collect on a 100 year limit? After all, go back to 1907 (well ,more accurately 1911); what odds would you have got on no Liberal Government for 100 years?
Wroger even most serious Labour people find you a twat. Out all day and no one mentioned Brown, hardly suprising. If you behave socially as you do here most people would quietly agree whilst preparing to top themselves. Rather like the scene in Airplane.
How is Brown perceived in his own back yard? Normally it is with almost divine reverence; but this is what has appeared in his home town local paper the Fife Courier:
Brown “big feartie” jibe from Salmond
By Steve Bargeton, political editor
GORDON BROWN’S credibility as Prime Minister was in doubt last night after he finally ruled out a snap election this autumn.
Yesterday, after weeks of teasing and speculation, he said he was not going to the country anytime soon.
Mr Brown claimed he had a “duty” to consider an early election and boasted Labour could beat the Conservatives “today, next week or weeks after.”
But that was not how his political opponents saw it. First Minster Alex Salmond dubbed Mr Brown the “the big feartie from Fife.”
He said, “He has lost an enormous amount of credibility. He lost control of his campaign team, and allowed Douglas Alexander and others to hype up election speculation and back him into a corner.
323 ouch!
I’d be surprised if we see a Labour lead until, perhaps, after a favourable budget, March/April
321 Casino - This bet covers only the first half of 2009. The point I was trying to make is that it would be inconceivable for GB to call an election during this 6 month period were he to be well behind in the polls, quite likely IMO, whilst he still has almost a full year to recover.
316. Yes, good point, we will probably pick those apart for at least another three or four hundred comments!
Generally, it’s all been a bit short-tempered over the last few days. Even the always polite Nick P has become just a bit tetchy.
Hats off to the few Labour posters honest enough to admit that Brown has dropped a boo-boo (and of his own making) and also to the Tories who recognise that while this is a setback for Labour it is far short of a victory for us.
The biggest impact (and the real interest from a betting perspective) has been on the leaders reputations in their own parties.
- Camerons stock has risen considerably - to the point where it’s obvious he will be a fixture for at least a decade win or lose.
- Browns stock has fallen (but not much because I think he has only confirmed the doubts that many Labour activists and MP’s already had about him)
- Ming Campbells stock has gone up (from a fairly low point) because he, too has done well and managed to get a distinct Lib Dem narrative (fixed term Parliaments) out there.
- Salmond is riding high anyway, but never misses an opportunity to benefit from an enemy’s troubles.
322 - I think that the next election will be an absolute crackerjack election. I personally hope that the Labour party doesn’t start to get comprehensively trashed. I think elections that are foregone conclusions are only exciting when your watching the headcount like in 1997. Personally I think it is a long long time since there was a real election fight, where both parties had comprehensive visions for the country. I hope to God we get somthing like that in a couple of years a genuine battle of ideas.
318. Yes, my subconscious disturbs even me sometimes. Dunno where that came from.
I think the Snickers bars are very important for the complete mental image, though.
323. Well said.
326 GOP - which year? 2008 is hardly going to be a give-away budget, coupled with a likely down turn in house prices.
328
Agree with all of that, fair analysis.
Still think Ming will go before the next GE.
323 - I am not be Roger’s biggest fan, but I think that post was unnecessary.
327. “321 Casino - This bet covers only the first half of 2009.”
I know that.
There was a typo - I said Q4 2009, I meant Q4 2008!
Still think price is about right. V. unlikely he’ll go for a late election again after this fiasco.
322. “The one punt I’d love to make - does anyone know where I can better on there never being another Tory Government?”
In the words of our beloved ‘Ave It:
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!
301 But Bush did wield enormous power when his Party controlled Congress. It struck at the divided powers principle of the Constitution. Many American now favour divided Government, and since Congress controls the mommy issues ege Social Security where Democrats are strong and the Presidency the Daddy issues eg Defence where Republicans are strong, I think the Democrat Congress could give the Republicans an opening i.e look don’t give unfettered power to one Party. That is assuming the Republicans don’t a)field an way out nut eg Brownback b) implode ala 92 with a grassroots revolt against the nominee (with Giuliani this must be a possibility) or c)Split with a 3rd Party Hard right candidate siphoning votes away in Crucial States
323. Yeah, far be it from me to defend Woger, who can be extremely annoying, but I think that was a cat-call too far.
Perhaps we should ALL chill out for the rest of the evening. Including me.
335 V. unlikely he’ll go for a late election again after this fiasco.
On the contrary - I think it makes it all the more likely!
Re 110, Tyson, Interesting post.
I spoke to an LD today who has said that whilst he felt there was a nasty wing in the Conservative party, he would work his socks off to keep it out of power.
I asked how he felt now he knew Gordon was on our side
309 - I agree with Mike about a small Labour lead. I thought there would be a reasonable Brown bounce, despite constant Tory insistence here that there would not be. And so there was.
Small Labour lead or small Tory lead is pretty irrelevant 2 years before a GE. If I were a Tory and saw a small Labour lead, I would not lose sleep yet. Likewise Labour and a small Tory lead.
335 - beware all Ave it copyright materials will be defended in court!
312. 321. Odds on Jan-Jun 2009 look about right to me too. I bet on jan-Jun 2010 at 15-1 and am laying a bit of that off now that the odds have closed in so much.
338. ??????!!
You wanna bet that way, your call!!
I might be willing to lay Q1/Q2 2009, but I wouldn’t want to guess when *else* it might be.
AVE IT PRE POLL ANALYSIS
Fair, considered, impartial
—————————
Labour government credibility
Gordon Brown standing as a world or even parish politician:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!
337: agree with seanT. roger is a pb.com institution. Pot and Kettle is…well…I’ll take sean’s advice (and Marcus Wood’s gentle reproof) and say no more. And I agree with James Burdett at 329 too.
Mind you, we did have a classic pb.com moment earlier - seanT expressing baffled disdain at a joke with sexual overtones. God, you can take me now. I’ve finally seen everything.
341. What, seriously? You don’t mean stuff like this do you?
I think it.s very unlikely Labour will have a poll lead at the moment. Too much bad press. By next month though it could well be back to where it was pre conference.
SeanT Andy D. Respect!
346
PS Nick/Roger welcome back
323 If we are going to take the Mickey out of Roger - could we at least get the mickey taking version of his name right - it’s WOGER; if you write wroger it gets pronounced ROGER and the whole point of the joke is lost.
Anyway - those of us sensible enough to take a look at Barclays on the back of Roger’s dodgy share tipping might actually make some money out of it. I piled into banking stocks a few weeks back and have done nicely just buying big 5 banks so the lad’s not all bad
Electoral Calculus has just issued a new seat calculation. LD’s down to zero and Nats on 20 but no attempt in the accompanying email to explain this rather unlikely scenario.
350: refer to 346
LD = non party
350 http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
352 ROFL
we all know it’s rubbish - but it’s still funny
345 lol, I thought the same!
I have a thought about the background to all this which seems to rarely generate much discussion. It is simply this:
Do the Conservative Party have an institutional advantage by having their party conference last?
The reasoning for this is based on a theory, sometimes proposed, that much of the short term volatility in the polls can be explained by a very small fraction of the population (c7%), who respond rapidly to each twist and turn in the political world. A common situation will find the two parties level leading into the conferences. (with the group, for argument’s sake, split 50:50) After a good Labour conference the group will split massively to Labour, giving Labour leads of up to 7%. Then after a good Tory conference they will go into full reverse and the Tories will have the large leads. And then a couple of weeks later back to level pegging.
348. I was thinking of taking it a bit further, but thought better of it
Right, I’m off for the night. Can’t abide the mutual-m@sturbation love in of fellow pb posters - I’m far too stubborn for all that.
I’ll only “rub-up” the ones I like
BTW who was advising Gordon Brown’s choice of words in his press conference today?
“I have to say, if I were honest with you, that my first instinct was against an early election”
Which sort of implies that there is another, dishonest, explanation which he is going to go with!
Baxter
Fife NE prediction
Electorate 62,057
LIB 25.32%
CON 17.24%
LAB 13.74%
NAT 38.89%
OTH 4.81%
Pred Maj 13.57% NAT Gain
Yes, Baxter can be funny. But not exactly realistic.
302: Which is why I said a division on one reading, not every reading.
355 - I am sure it helps that the Conservatives get the last word although it probably only really helps when that last word chimes.
New thread - Baxter puts the LDs on zero seats
308 Nick Palmer a very sad post from you.
You were hyping Labour’s chances for a couple of weeks and all your canvassing was incredibly positive and you said that “To be precise, Labour’s lead in 1997 was 12.5%, converting into a majority of 179. I don’t think we’d quite achieve that, but 100 looks increasingly possible.”
That to me is you suggesting “majorities for Labour …. to rival 1997.”
I suppose in hard arithmetic you could claim a majority of 100 it is below the 1997 majority but you were not precise with your electoral numbers? It was in both cases, as are many for all our posts, a comment not a mathematic exercise.
Certainly not enough of a discrepancy to accuse people, me in this case, of lying. Exaaggerating, over-egging perhaps ( I would disageee but those are a mile away from calling someone a liar)
Yours was an over-reaction to put it mildly to a criticism of your post which said:”the rent-a-rant mob out in force this morning, I see - even seanT, fresh from admitting lying here a couple of weeks ago. Whom is this faux outrage supposed to impress?”
And you say that ” I can be as rude as I like to pseudonyms”. Is this the same Nick Palmer who was going to give the site a rest because of “tory gloating” and who supported calls for more civility.
357. Alex. Yes, I thought that was an extraordinary choice of words. Particularly when he then proceeded NOT to give an honest explanation of the influence of the polls on his election decision.
ITV early evening news was scathing and dire for Brown.
I am loathe to ever disagree with Mike as I usually end up poorer as a consequence. But I would have thought that things are only going to get worse in the short term for Brown and Labour and I expect the polls to reflect this. Brown’s stature and confidence have taken a hammering over the last few days. It is by no means certain in my view that he will bounce back from this any time soon. He has shown a great ability to keep digging when in a hole.
Witan @ 362
For goodness sake, give it a rest. 100 majority is nowhere near 179, and Nick Palmer only said it looks “increasingly possible”.
If you want this site to become one for just Tory posters, keep on making the same kind of crass comments.
I would never vote Labour, but like many others here I very much welcome Nick’s contributions. Yours on the other hand are beginning to be in the SeanT / francis mould….ones i often skip.
364 That is fine David, you carry on skipping my posts, that is your prerogative. But please do not tell me to shut up because I might upset an MP who happens to post here.
Witan @ 365
I didn’t tell you to shut up. I merely pointed out that your post @ 362 (and similar previous ones) was crass, and was in danger of making this site one that only tories read.
There’s Iain Dale and Guido and Conservative Home if you wish to vent your bile. Please go there if you just want to be nasty.
Naturally, your less splenetic contributions are very welcome.
Incidentally well done to Nick Cohen who hit the nail on the head here a couple of weeks ago when he said it would be Gordon who had the problem having boxed himself in. Also to StJohn a rare Labour supporter who spotted a minor flaw in the otherwise impeccable character of our dear Prime Minister when others saw only sweetness and light!
Yet Another David How very kind of you to make my posts welcome - as long as they match your guidelines, of course.
I will humbly do my best, suurr.