Will no 2007 general election be Ming’s resignation “peg”?
September 20th, 2007
How does he go with dignity and consistency?
The main interest in Ming’s closing speech to the Lib Dem conference in Brighton today will be whether it sounds like a valedictory. Certainly from the briefings that have come out it is starting to look that way.
Ming’s problem is how he gets round his previous statements that he would lead the party into the next general elections. If he goes early it would looks as though he had been forced out. My view is that the lack of a 2007 general election, if that is indeed the case, gives him an excellent opportunity.
The resolute way Ming has been attacking Brown for not going to the polls immediately provides a powerful argument. He’s not going early - Ming will be able to say - it’s Brown’s fault for failing to go to the country when he should have done.
Thus Campbell would be able to be consistent with previous statements and he can attack Brown at the same time. The fact that ICM yesterday was reporting the Lib Dems back at 20% and that David Cameron is even more unpopular than he is will make the move much easier.
Added to this has been Ming’s apparent laid-back view of Nick Clegg’s activities. Would his shadow home secretary have used the conference as a platform to set out his leadership intentions in such an obvious way if he had felt that this would undermine Ming?
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So we had the crazy situation yesterday where Chris Huhne, who upset the party grey suits by running last time, was attacking Clegg’s “premature” statements while Ming himself appeared to be giving them his backing. In a Radio 4 interview the leader said:-“I like ambition. I am totally relaxed.”
The betting possibilities. My favourite is Betfair’s ” Next General Election: Party Leaders” market where the options are which of the current three will still be there on polling bday. You can get 3.6/1 on Brown and Cameron and 4.5/1 of Brown alone. Both might be worth a flutter.
Mike Smithson
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But just the other day, Ming said he would lead his party into the next election “and beyond”. So, sorry, I don’t see how Gordon’s failure to go for a GE in 2007 gives any sort of cover for a graceful exit by Ming. “It’s all that Gordon Brown’s fault. He wouldn’t come out and fight - when he knew I only had a limited shelf life…” Doesn’t really work, does it?
Clutching straws, wishful thinking, but 10 out of 10 for effort.
This is the first time in 30 years the LD’s (or their predecessors) have had an externally driven problem with regards their position in the market. The issues in the past were their own internal divisions / leadership/ dead dogs on Devon moors, but their proposition as the acceptable anti-tory party was safe
Now the Tories are less nasty, and - with caveats - more competent. They are also arguably no longer the new kids on the block, and a repository for protest votes. Its difficult to portray Ming as a new kid anyway
Oops “They” is the LD’s above - bad proofing
O/T
I have often been critcal of Gord but I applaud this decision of his.
Well Done
Brown threatening Mugabe boycott
Prime Minister Gordon Brown says he will not go to a summit if Zimbabwe’s leader Robert Mugabe is there.
Mike, I think this is an excellently propositioned piece.
He clearly isn’t cutting it with the public and is the cause of growing unease within the party (I’m still talking about Ming !)
If he does walk now, or shortly, it will give them the short term boost of a new, younger, more energetic Leadership that will at least capture the public’s attention, however passing (or not) that might prove to be.
At the moment (individual opinion polls aside) the are still gently sliding to oblivion and they need to do something dramatic to break that trend.
4 Me too Herbert. Long overdue, but well done the dour one !
6: A rare outbreak of cross-party consensus (much be an early morning!) I’d be glad to add my approval to Brown’s move.
As for the thread, I imagine that it is one for the wishful thinking pile such as Cameron not fighting the LDs at the next election. But it will be very interesting to see if his speech is reported beyond the context of leadership positioning.
4 - or Gordon is looking for excuses to stay in his bunker! The EU leaders have to lift the ban for Mugabe to travel to Lisbon in the first place. So what Gordon should be saying to his fellow European leaders is - it’s me or him! (And doesn’t Britain have a veto anyway - or is it already majority voting on letting crazy dictators wander around our continent?)
Sorry, but why this, why now? Why are Gordon’s press people opening up another front? This is entirely a story of their own devising - there is no external timing issue here for a conference taking place in December. Don’t take the bait - just because the BBC did…your brighter than that.
8 - “you’re brighter than that”
Sorry, I’m not….
8. Just because it might be spin doesn’t mean it’s not the right thing to do as well.
When I saw Ming interviewed yesterday it was obvious he’d come to the end of his tether. He didn’t look like he wanted to go on. Surely he’ll throw in the towel by the end of the year?.
It’s ironic that six months ago the mood on here seemed to be that Gordon was the disaster and labour were the ones in trouble if they didn’t find an alternative fast.
Infact he’s the most secure of the three. I doubt that either Dave or Ming will be in place in 2009. It shows what poor pundits many on this site-and elsewhere-really are.
With Jose Mourinho going I doubt most Sun readers will be following Ming’s speech too closely. Party leaders have to lucky as well as talented. Coupled with NR could Ming have had a more invisible week?
Meanwhile …. the “Times” reports there’s donor trouble for Ming …… No, no not a shortage of monkey glands for Ming, but trouble of the dosh variety :
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/health/article2492984.ece
It’s an interesting suggestion Mike puts forward, but Ming just doesn’t strike me as someone about to stand down. Indeed, the comment Mark refers to at [1] struck me at the time as that of someone who was not entirely in touch with the best interests of either his own career or his party. Through to the next election, fair enough. Beyond? That’s surely an invitation to others to have a go at him. After deposing Kennedy and choosing Ming, I can understand the Lib Dems reluctance to go through the process - all leadership elections are a bit of a step in the dark (except perhaps the retrograde step of choosing an ex-leader, like the SNP did). Still, his desire put that way sounded like a plea to be allowed his chance in government if Gordon offers a coalition after the next election.
So no - I can’t see Ming using any political peg to hang a resignation on this side of an election. Nor can I see him being forced out with an election possibly at most months away at any given time through to 2010. The only one that would count would be sustained ill-health - but despite how he looks, he’s not all that elderly. I rather suspect the Lib Dems are stuck with him for the remainder of this term.
11. “Infact he [Gordon]’s the most secure of the three. I doubt that either Dave or Ming will be in place in 2009. It shows what poor pundits many on this site-and elsewhere-really are.”
PLEASE can this post be preserved for 15 months?
Meanwhile II …. Matthew Parris in the “Times” casts his eye over putative Lib Dem leadership contender Chris Huhne :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article2492643.ece
It’s got to be continually said whenever there is a thread about a 2007 election.
We are less than half way through a 5 year parliament. An election now would be almost unprecedented and totally unnecessary. The Queen would be well within her rights to to say NO! Why spend millions of public money for no reason? (other than “Labour are ahead in the polls”? ) I hardly think “i don’t think that a 60+ majority is enough” is really acceptable.
People seem to think it’s 2009 not 2007 (references to 1978, for example)
Meanwhile III …. Andrew Grice, political editor of the “Independent” says our Gawd is contemplating a dash to the country ….. and that doesn’t mean a quick bike ride to Chequers !!
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2979925.ece
20 Meanwhile IV …. former Tory MP, Michael Brown in the “Independent” ponders a Cammy/Ming alliance :
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article2979858.ece
17. In theory, you’re right. In practice, the Queen is as bound by the politics as anyone else. If she refused a dissolution, how could she react if Gordon responded to that refusal by resigning as PM? There is no-one else in the HoC who could command majority support. If Brown wants an election, he will get one.
Meanwhile V …. Michael White in the “Gruntfutock” reports that Ming will claim the centre left ground (apparently that’s news ….
)
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/libdems/story/0,,2172719,00.html
……………
21 David. Correct.
Meanwhile VI …. the “Scotsman” reports that SNP minister Stewart Stevenson has been forced to sell £30,000 of shares because of a “conflict of interest”.
http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1504632007
21 - I didn’t say she would say no. Of course she wouldn’t. Just that she would be well within her rights and she would be fully justified. I still haven’t heard a single good reason given for an election (other than “in place of a Euro referendum”).
Meanwhile VII …. The Broxtowe Globe reports there is some disquiet in the local MP’s feline loving household at the identity of their new stray cat :
http://www.shelleytherepublican.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/08/galloway_cat2.jpg
The Mail’s comment on the possibilty of a an autumn GE, is worth reading. No sign yet of the Mail throwing itself behind Cameron in the forthcoming contest, be interesting to see what position the Mail does take.
http://tinyurl.com/37r9pn
Interesting article by Andrew Grice. Perhaps an election really is going to happen this year? If Labour’s private polling give them an 8 point lead it might just be too tempting. He can argue that he needs a mandate for various changes he wants to make so the charge of opportunism is easily got round. That wont make sense next May.
Oh come on alex, the spin’s not that hard ‘In 2005 the Great British people elected Labour for a third term in office with Tony Blair promising to serve a full term. Since he stepped down, I have begun to carry out a bold programme of sweeping reforms that will make this country stronger. However despite the overwhelming response I have received in recent months, as I am the listening PM (TM) it is only right for the British people to have their say in our future, and to equip the Labour government with a fresh mandate for the unique challenges which lie ahead. I have therefore been to the palace this morning and…..’
David Herdson@10: Indeed!
If anyone asks has the EU done anything good, hopefully its this….
http://tinyurl.com/37dke5
The Queen would certainly allow a dissolution as Brown is a new PM and none of the other parties would oppose it publicly (indeed they have all called for an early election). The circumstances where she might refuse are pretty limited - perhaps if a sitting PM wanted a very early snap election to exploit a massive crisis in a rival party (and I mean a massive one - not a few polls showing Cameron is somewhat unpopular for example).
There seem to be many influential people in the Lib Dems who continue to believe there will be an early election. What’s your take on that, Mike (and others?)
Meanwhile VIII …. Conservative MP arrested …. oh dear.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=482835&in_page_id=1770&ito=newsnow
31 There is a depressing Orwellian tendency in the Lib Dem heirarchy these days to be constantly warning their activists about the Impending Conflict. In the same way that the Government tries to get everyone worried about the War on Terror, so the Lib Dem leaflet deliverers get told to be on a war footing. It gives everyone something to do, I suppose, and it gets everyone looking outwards at a common enemy rather than wondering whether their Bosses are any good.
Of course, one dy they will be right, and there really will be a General Election, but I still don’t think it will be this year: for one thing, the whole Northern Rock thing is still too unquantifiable in political terms. Would you fancy leading a party into an unneccessary General Election if there was a re-emergence of a financial “scandal” of some sort or another?
For a changem, I disagreee with David Herdson on something, his implied derision at the idea that DC and MC will both be gone in 2009. If there’s an election before then and Labour wins comfortably - by no means guaranteed but clearly a possibility - Roger is surely right. Could Cameron survive a bad election result? I think they’d have him out within a week.
alex at 17: you write as though elections were ruinously expensive things for the taxpayer, justifiable only in extreme circumstances. There’s some cost in ballot papers and election staff, and the TV companies need to give up some ad time, and…? A new leader asking for a mandate for a revised manifesto seems to me a perfectly reasonable basis, and the public would largely agree. Whether it’s likely to happen now is another matter - I still doubt it.
33 Agree. Just wondered how others felt.
30. I can think of at least four good reasons for refusing a dissolution, which in no particular order are:
Firstly, if an alternative government could be formed from within the existing House of Commons after the fall of the sitting one, with a lengthy period of the current parliament left. Before refusing an election in this case, the monarch should be careful that the incoming PM won’t want an immediate election either.
Another would be a request for a second election, immediately following an inconclusive first one, before it has been demonstrated that no government could maintain the support of the House. A variation on this would be a sitting PM having lost an election and fancying a second go.
A third scenario could be during a time of national crisis, when it would be both impossible to campaign normally and it would also be severely detrimental to the functioning of government. The risk of following this course would be that a newly elected government will automatically enjoy greater legitimacy to deal with the crisis.
A fourth - the one you mention - might be if a governing party sought to capitalise on the temporary and exceptional incapacity of an opposition, for example, during a leadership election following a death.
However, one reason the monarchy has survived as it has is because it has not needed to play such a high stakes game during the modern era, and therefore has not antagonised any side by its actions.
“Fellow Liberal Democrats. This week’s polls say I am only twice as ‘net popular’ as that Dildo Chameleon….. Clearly any decent leader would be at least six times ahead? Therefore I am proud to annouince that I am about to pass the baton on smoothly not to that Cameron clone Clegg but, the best kept secret of the political year. . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . …
Jose Morhino!!!!
Now the Lib Dems will NEVER lose at home! We will be led by the man who has left the Blues trailing behind him.
Will stick to what I have been saying since Ming took over , election this year or not , he should and will step down Feb/March next year .
34. Nick, it’s not so much that I don’t think Roger might be right - if there’s an early election and Labour wins comfortably, he probably will be.
It’s both the certainty with which he states his own postulation (which is only a guess like anyone else’s), and also such an obvious setting up of his own petard to be hoist by, with the comment about poor punditry in connection with a rather risky prediction.
Northern Rock on the slide in early trading:
-42.75p (-16.63%) 17.74M shares traded @ 8:36
They may test the £2.00 level, which is the rumoured target price for bids - if no support there then it’s bon voyage.
33
The voters have already made up their minds who they want, it’ll take more than Northern Rock,(which according to a Populus poll only 20% blame the government) to change their minds.
If Tory posters want to spend time commenting on something, they might try, ‘Why is it, that after ten years of a Labour government, with all its problems, led by a man who only a few months ago, we were saying was a disaster, bad hair too Scottish’ etc. the Tory Party is going south faster than, ’shit can go through a goose.’ a bit of self flaggellation might be in order!.
Trading in NRK may now be suspended - awaiting confirmation.
32.
“A Conservative Party spokesman said: “This is a police matter and it would not be right for us to comment at this stage.”
“. . . and by next week we shall find another excuse not to comment!!” Another Parkinson moment just before the party conference. Exactly what the Chameleon needs.
From the Much Newer Oxford Dictionary of Political Science:
Pelling 1.(vi): To get double your share. As in double families….double salaries from the public purse… 2(vt) to clobber one’s spouse or mistress as in “he really pelled her”.
RePelling (v) To double-Pell. Also known as ‘to Parkinson’.
For those that want to see a broad selrction of today’s press speculation about a snap GE see:
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2979925.ece
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/story/0,,2172779,00.html
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/peter_riddell/article2492766.ece
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/19633/Brown-set-for-snap-election
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2007430731,00.html
It would appear to me that the likelihood of Gordon calling a snap GE at the labour conference is quite strong according to the press
and I see that Betfair’s odds have shortened to around 5/1
Re44: Betfair has now shortened further to around 4/1
41.
“a bit of self flaggellation might be in order!. ”
I always thought that was par for the course in the Blue-rinse boyos. Almost an entrance requirement. Take Danny Finkelstein for instance. Still not forgiven himself for being a graduate of the David Owen kindergarten.
Another reason for not going to the country now is that food prices will be increasing owing to bad weather around the world (according to signs at various supermarkets).
NRK still trading - have been as low as £1.80 - we’ll see if any potential bidders are out there.
Mike - this has to go down as one of your least perceptive articles.
When a party elects a ’safe pair of hands’ it is not credible for it to dump them as soon as the wind changes. Ming is here for the duration - get used to it.
I have been astounded by the widening gap between the reality of what party activists are saying and what the media report. The media’s agenda at Lib Dem conference is normally ‘which way will they jump in coalition’ when the talk in the bars is usually of policy or strategy. Ever since Ming’s election the media’s agenda has been ‘when will he go’, even though the party is talking about the environment, tax, the London Mayor, Iraq etc etc.
This year there has been almost zero reporting of the ‘real’ conference. Instead it’s been replaced almost totally by Andrew Neil’s miserable and cheap ‘Helloo’ reportage reducing every speech and nuance to who’s going to be the next big thing. Party conferences are not Oscar ceremonies and trying to fit them into the ‘celebrity’ culture is irresponsible, but then Andrew Neil is happy to cheapen respected institutions - look at the Scotsman newspaper.
The shame is Mike you’re following this nonsense agenda.
42. It seems very likely that other institutions are struggling as well - this was noted at Tuesday’s meeting of the BoE/FSA/Treasury. Hence the move to the provision of 3-month money - which importantly is still being extended at a penal rate and so will only be of interest to really illiquid institutions.
I think the Lib Dems would really like a May election a new fresh-faced leader to start chipping away at the Conservatives and Labour. An autumn election would just set them back and I cannot believe they would beat their vote numbers from the last general election.
41 Sorry, Grumpy, but I disagree. OK, so most of the public don’t blame the Government for Northern Rock. But suppose that NR’s problems are either contagious, or else are already shared by other financial institutions. When that becomes apparent, it might knock confidence in the economy generally - and if there is a perception that mortgages are difficult to obtain, or that there is a house price slump, Joe Public will not be impressed. If voting is in late October, the voters will ask why the Government didn’t sort it out in September when it first became apparent. OK, that’s an irrational response, but so is standing outside an NR Branch for five hours.
If there is a “financial crisis” (however you choose to describe it) the Government will get the blame, whether that is fair or not. Remember the “Labour Isn’t Working” posters? Imagine them reproduced, but this time with a Northern Rock logo at the front of the queue…..
Re52: But they have got Saatchi and Saatchi on their side now…
The Northern Rock guarantee applies to existing accounts only.
51.”“Labour Isn’t Working” posters? Imagine them reproduced, but this time with a Northern Rock logo at the front of the queue…..”
It has already been done.
51. Correct - the crucial point is whether this affects people personally, in large numbers, and especially if it hits their pockets. The petrol protests did - albeit temporarily - and managed to catapult even Hague’s Tories into the lead.
If the public start to really feel the pinch, the recent poll numbers are likely to be pretty meaningless - the swings in recent months already show how fickle the public are.
51.
This poster would be trying to persuade us, Augustus, that Tories would have regulated Northern Rock and the rest more than Labour has? I think not!
49- NRK stabilizing around 200 now.
53. Has to or it would allow them to gain market share at the expense of other banks by claiming to be the safest place on the street - direct violation of competition rules.
49 - “Hence the move to the provision of 3-month money - which importantly is still being extended at a penal rate and so will only be of interest to really illiquid institutions.”
But the suggestion last night was that £10 billion being provided at penal rates was still going ot be overwhelmed, with a provision for up to £40 billion being taked about. That rather suggests there are many such illiquid institutions who will have to go to the The Old Lady Loan Shark Co. (or just a few - but who are truly knackered!)
Dan @ 9 re Ming — never mind the real conference; Ming will go when sufficient MPs panic about their job prospects.
I missed David’s barb at 15! If there is an election before 2009 it’s almost certain that Gordon will be the only one of the three party leaders still in position in 2009
Gordo would be insane not to go this year - he could win 2 elections if he strikes now.
Redwood wants LESS mortgage regulation. Well done tories.
Can I just add my voice to the approvals of Brown refusing to meet Mugabe. It may be a ploy to win votes but I don’t care. Good on him.
I am just back from Brighton and I certainly don’t see any leadership change on the agenda. In fact Lib Dem morale is high, with some very good local results, a recovering poll position overall and increasingly severe problems for DC, especially, looking cheering. Vince Cable also got a few good punches in over GB and the Northern Rock crisis too.
I don’t see much chance of GB going to the country this year, and therefore the earliest would be late spring 2008, and of course his window extends all the way to May 2010. Sure, if it really goes the distance, then it is just a remote possibility that Ming may stand down before, but to be honest I think that the calculation then would be whether or not Liberal Democrats are likely to enter government after that election or not- and two and a half years is an eternity in politics…
The Tory conference might be a dramatically bumpier affair- and after the latest leadership numbers, “uneasy lies the head” that wears that particular crown.
I see Harriet Harman is scheduled to give a “tub thumping speech” at the end of the Labour Conference:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7000782.stm
I wonder what kind of tub she will be thumping?
Seriously, if rallying the troops is one of the important jobs that the Deputy Leader has to do I think that Hazel would have been a better choice
65. Do you produce this kind of mindlessly optimistic spin when writing for your bank too, James?
56, Whether or not people would be convinced, Wage Slave, is a different matter. But the ability of all parties in all circumstances to claim that “We would do a better job than the other lot!” has never been in doubt. Similarly, parties seem able to blame their opponents for everything that is wrong with the world, regardless of the logic of the situation. So yes, if there was a financial wobble in the next few months, and if I was a Tory or Lib Dem policy wonk, I would blame the Labour Government in no uncertain terms. Unfair, I know, but winning elections has more to do with politics than macroeconomic analysis and the subtleties of financial services regulation.
#59 Mark The Old Lady Loan Shark Co
like it, lol.
I suspect Northern Rock situations are the reason Gordon is doing so well. When nothing important is going on Cameron’s esoteric hippy politics sound quite interesting.
It’s only when the public are reminded that serious things can happen that they shudder at the thought Dave on the tiller.
60 - but they’re not. There is a wide recognition that Ming will lead them into the next election.
He is as likely to go as Brown is (ie ill health, falling under a bus). Interestingly the Betfair market on the leaders at the next election shows considerable nervousness about Cameron’s ability to survive too - I wonder if Andrew Neil will be similarly interested in the succession in two weeks time?
67 - Oooh, mieooww :). Looks as if Cicero has acquired his own Pot & Kettle. Roger must be desolate.
69 - The Old Lady Loan Shark Co
And at the same time, the Govt. is rolling out its initiative on cracking down on loan sharks “amid growing concerns over debt levels”:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7002808.stm
You can’t make up this stuff!
72. I’m gutted!
Support the stalked! Join the Cicero Two!
BTW re “general election and beyond”… there is automatically a call for LD leader nominations after every general election.
In June 2005 nobody opposed CK and in fact virtually every LD MP signed his papers.
So things will take their natural course depending on the result of that election.
Meanwhile IX….LibDem’s “criminal” past.
You have to laugh at Nick “Moriarty” Clegg:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7003100.stm
I wonder if he gets prickly if you mention it? (Boom-boom!)
Mervyn King saying that Government legislation (EU Market Abuse Directive) prevented them providing a facility to NR covertly (as they would have done in the past), and hence precipitated to the run on NR!
“Shares in mortgage lenders slumped as the government indicated its rescue of Northern Rock would only apply to accounts opened or re-opened by last night. Analysts suggested this would make it very difficult for the bank to rebuild its position and could effectively mean it is just left to run down its mortgage book. ”
I sense that something could happen here…
Are you totally sure that there are no circumstances where NR will be in serious trouble as a going concern?
Share price is now sub £2. No buyer yet….
Matt.
Wage slave It is not the NR position itself that is doing serious damage to the government’s reputation for competence and honesty, rather it is the rather cack-handed way the whole thing was dealt with.
The warning signs as far back as April were ignored and when the problem finally came home to them is was too late, there was hand-to-mouth action and confused promises and guarantees.
They are today still clarifying those guarantees and have hauled the net back to cover only NR accounts opened before the bank called in the BoE.
The BBC today points out that:
“However enquiries by the BBC revealed later that the authorities did not appear to have any plan in place to put this guarantee in action, should it be needed.”
And why? Because they think its all over. Daft to the point of dangerous. Lets spin it away by suddenly, after eleven years of inaction, worrying about Mugabe.
It won’t work because the fallout is only now beginning and the financial problems are working through the system.
So those that say Brown should go for an election now are right. There will not be a better time in the next three years during which every month, perhaps every week, there will be a chicken coming home.
The Telegraph business team report:
“Yesterday seasoned City figures were aghast at the idea that the Government had played a role in persuading the Bank to bail out Northern Rock last week, and to intervene again in the market yesterday.
“This is the end of the Bank of England’s independence,” said one.
They also noted that it was particularly ironic as in 1997 it was Gordon Brown, then Chancellor, and Alistair Darling, then chief secretary to the Treasury, who won plaudits for making the Bank independent.”
79 No, Witan, he has left it too late. The chickens are already coming home to roost.
But there are three weeks at least for a GE campaign. The times reports GB’s pollster is telling him he will lose his majority. I’ve been reading around this am and it looks bleak all around financially, Fed decision looks stupid. In a three week campaign will there be more runs on more banks?
If I were Gord no way I’d go now. I’d hang on til 2010 and at least get three years as PM
Bet NR wished it’d accepted the takeover offer it receivedd from a big city institution last week. If it had it could have saved a lot of bother all round.
“… the times reports GB’s pollster is telling him he will lose his majority”
According to the Independent article linked above Browns private pollsters tell him he’s 8% ahead and will increase his majority!
82. Funny, the Independent is reporting that Labour’s private polling has them 8% ahead…
I’ve got a policy to help DC get some support - independance for the bank of england
Another objective analysis up to your usual standards Witan!!
Bradford and Bingley down 10% too..
Roger You are right and I am wrong. {Reverses out of room tugging forelock}
87. “Another objective analysis up to your usual standards Witan!! ”
Look who’s talking
But not doing that well in the marginals, where it counts.
40 Alliance & Leicester down 60pts, 7.6%
82/84/85: Reading both the Times and Indy articles they don’t contradict each other. The Indy says that Labour’s private polling alos shows them ahead by 8 points, but that they are doing less well in the marginal seats. The Times confirms that the cabinet were shown a large poll of marginal seats… but doesn’t tell us anything about it, the stuff about whether they would lose their majority seems to be just Peter Riddell’s speculation, not drawn directly from Labour’s private polling.
In short, we can’t tell from what’s leaked out how well Labour’s private polls show they are doing in marginal seats, only that it isn’t as good as the 2.5 swing to Labour that an 8 point lead implies. It could be a smaller swing to Labour, or no change, or a swing to the Conservatives, we’ve nothing to judge by (though I’d be very surprised if there was a vast difference between marginals and the country as a whole).
93. The point about private polls is they can be spun any way. We don’t know what Labour’s private polling is saying, and I’m sure the results flucutate in line with the published polls. However, there’s no reason for Labour not to keep their opponents on tenterhooks by feeding different stories to different journalists.
The average Labour lead is around 5%. Taking into account incumbency, and the Conservatives’ relatively strong performance in the South, that would probably give a majority of c.50. But if the lead fell during the campaign, that majority could fall away rapidly.
94 - “Taking into account incumbency, and the Conservatives’ relatively strong performance in the South, that would probably give a majority of c.50. But if the lead fell during the campaign, that majority could fall away rapidly.”
A run on the Alliance and Leicester and/or the Bradford and Bingley during a three week election campaign - and the numbers could go anywhere. To take that risk at this time - when he has no need - would seem to be a degree of political recklessness that hasn’t been hinted at by Brown in his career to date…
95 Well, I wouldn’t do it in his position, unless I thought the future held prospects so dire that I had no option.
94 SeanF
You are so sound and sensible Mike should give you your own daily slot as a means of calming the more hysterical posters.
May I just add that Brown is extremely unlikely to gamble a perfectly workable majority in the hope a winning a bigger one unless he is absolutely certain of the outcome. ‘Maybe’ simply isn’t going to be good enough.
96 Our posts crossed in cyberspace, Sean, but again I can only nod in agreement. He would have to be sure things are going to get very much worse. It certainly seems there are difficult economic times times ahead but it does not necessarily follow that Brown’s political fotunes will suffer as a consequence. It depends on whether he is held responsible for them and to what extent he is perceived as being the best captain in stormy weather.
96 On the poster campaigns, replace “Are you thinking what we’re thinking?” with “What does he know that we don’t?”. That might just work this time, in the current climate of distrust.
Oct 25 seems to be the most likely date
100 - when would he have to annouce this ?
[67] A stalker- how exciting
Of course, I just say it as I see it: though doubtless you might say that just being a Liberal Democrat smacks of optimism.
However, so often the slightest downtick in support creates panic, the slightest uptick creates euphoria. You may not like the Lib Dems, Wycombe stalker, but the Conservatives are not convincing too many people right now either, and much indeed may happen over two and half years.
I do in fact believe that the core values and principles behind the Liberal Democrats are necessary for our country. I also think that the long term trend is that the established political system is changing to reflect greater social, economic and cultural diversity. Therefore the party that best recognises and understands these changes, in my view the Liberal Democrats, will continue to benefit in the long term- whatever the short run noise around that signal.
The Lib Dems have a disciplined and focused Liberal ideology. Perhaps if the Conservatives dropped the gimmicks and told us what they truly believe, then their increasingly hapless leader might get respect. Unfortunately, it is hard for real and principled Conservatives to speak out when their leader so transparently and opportunistically seeks power for its own sake.
Whatever you think of the Liberal Democrats, you could never accuse them of such a failing. We are still old fashioned: we seek power as a tool for our ideas, and not as an end in itself.
BTW- what has happened to Master Matlock? He seems to be AWOL from these pages nowadays.
51.
do you actually understand the ‘Labour isn’t working’ posters? Do you realise it would have no context in the Northern Rock scenario whatsoever?
101 last day of the labour conference -
Mervyn King is Penfold and I claim my £5 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penfold
106. And Brown as Baron Greenback ?
48 and 71 As a semi-veteran of Lib Dem conferences, I follow and agree with what you are saying about “media agendas” as far as the Lib Dems are concerned. But I note you didn’t attempt to answer my question at 31!
Cicero @ 102 re core values — the trouble for the Conservatives is Mrs Thatcher. Whatever Thatcherism is and was, it had very little to do with traditional Conservatism. And maybe people would once have said the same of Butskellism. In any case, John Major’s Back to Basics showed that any such move would be hijacked even before the standing ovation.
As for the Lib Dems, surely its pro-EU stance has no more to do with Liberalism than Labour’s old Irish republicanism was socialist. The same can be said of PR. And how liberal is their shiny new life-means-life prison policy?
Labour, Blair, fill in the gaps.
Sir John Grieve being panned by the committee.
Sean Fear You may be right but the first thing that will hit voter confidence in mortgage rates for new and for fixed term revisions. The fallout for consumer spending is significant to. And the mountain of personal debt is already weighing on the economy.
Add to that the government debt which needs to be constantly rolled over ( we have enormous debt for a period of economic growth) and the difficulty of keeping government expenditure at the current level if there is the slightest wobble in the economy, and the scenario for the next few years is not bright.
At the moment the Brown Economic Miracle myth can be largely sustained but if any or all of these possible ‘events’ comes to pass it will get more and more difficult.
Political ‘events’ will add to this: more pension problems are likely, an Iraq enquiry cannot be put off for ever, the EU constitution - its all down the line lurking and clawing at the ground.
Perhaps brown is a political strategic genius. But this agenda is now daunting and if I were him I would go now with the slogan ‘ Vote me for stability in a rocky world and the security of your savings’.
If he doesn’t go now there will be no election until 2010.
110 “Rocky”?? Not a word I would suggest using in the current economic climate!
OT.. David Mellor on TV now talking about Chelsea. His hair is quite remarkable.
99- “What does he know that we don’t?”. That might just work this time, in the current climate of distrust.”
This worked extremely well for the French socialists in 1997 after everybody understood that Chirac had called an early election only because the 1998 budget was supposed to be impossible to balance without huge tax rises.
However, most French parliaments go to their full term of 5 years so the shock of an early election was greater, implying more media attention on the reason of such a move.
97 and 98. Many thanks. I have personal reasons for not wanting an Autumn election, as I’ve just moved house, and it will take ages to get the new place in order.
112. Another subject he knows naff all about
re 101 for a 25th October GE parliament would have to be dissolved on 2nd October
93. Interesting comment about the marginals in the private polls Anthony. One would assume that Lord Ashcroft and friends are doing the same as last time and ‘pump priming’ these marginal seats prior to any election. Hence the narrowness showing up in these polls.
Be rather a good wheeze of Brown to do this GE speculation bit every few months and make Ashcroft and Co keep spending for little return.
I for one would be VERY amused by it.
Cicero’s reports from Brighton remind me of Blackpool and IDS 2003 - ‘nuf said?
Sean Fear I am moving this autumn too - the contract should be signed in the next week or two so the current circumstances are a total pain.
Anthony was successful in having the Tories’ private polls published - any chance with Labour’s? Or is Mattison not BPC registered?
announced on the 27 , parliament dissolved by the 2 oct - GE 25
not sure where the queen fits into this timetable
i thnk nu labr shud go 2 the plls v soon coz gordon iz jst sooooo sxci! [btw i thnk alstair darlng iz a qt 2!]
jemma b @ 122 — Balls!
93. I have a sneaky suspicion that some of the ‘less inclined to vote’ labour people in the heartlands may have now come back to the Party believeing that ‘Brown is one of us’ or at the very least, that he deserves a chance.
Of course winning back such voters will make no difference come an General Election. Also worth noting that Labour have regained some of the anti-war voters who went Liberal. Again it’s not likely to gain them many seats in Parliament. The last 2 General Elections may have been well predicted by the polls, but we’re under different leadership now. The focus should really be on the 200 or so crucial seats that really make the difference.
114/119: Me too. I’ve squirrelled away lots of holiday to take once we’ve sorted out a completion date for the house and afterwards so I can work on the house, and I really don’t want to have to spend half of it on electioneering.
117: Ashcroft spends money on marginals all the time, not just before elections, so it wouldn’t work like that. One of the reasons I’ve sen cited as why Brown should go early (I think Nick’s mentioned it a couple of times) is that the longer Labour wait for an election, the longer the Conservatives have to spend without limit in target seats.
120: I don’t think OLR do their own quantative polling, they will probably have commissioned it from someone else - but not necessarily a member of the BPC. Since there aren’t any real figures (just “about 8″, and even vaguer about maginals) then I don’t think it could be construed as really having entered the public arena anyway. If I was deciding BPC cases, and someone reported it to me then (much though I’d like to have a peer at Labour’s private polling) I think I’d rule that it wasn’t a case where it needed to be disclosed.
More positive indications of a snap GE from John Hutton recently reported by the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7004264.stm
122. Wrong number luv..you’d be looking for the Big Brother comment text line..
A really brilliant piece of reporting in the Mail today, implying that an Autumn election is very likely, but then going on to say that senior Labour insiders are virtually ruling it out.
128. Similar in style to their usual ‘rise in house prices to cause crash in house prices’ style…
Doing some research it’s interesting to note that the only time the polls have been correct about the General Election vote share since 1987 was in 2005. We all know about 1992, 1997 had predictions of Labour 20 points ahead of the Tories - turned out to be 13%. In 2001 the polls predicted Labour 15% ahead of the Tories and they only won by 8%. I know they were still landslides anyway, but the polls were well out in each case.
They got it right in 2005 but remember that was Blair’s 3rd election so they should have had enough practice by then and the turnout was very similar to the previous election. Predicting the next Election will IMO be more tricky for the pollsters.
Tory MP Ian Taylor speaks out in a letter to constituents :
http://www.esherwalton.com/news_detail.php?nid=2
Does anyone think that Cameron’s Conservatives are in a stronger position than michael Howards were a month before the last election was called? I doubt it.
Added to that Brown is certainly more trusted than Blair was then and Iraq is not the issue it was either. There’s a lot going for Labour at the moment and as I see it any financial crisis makes a Tory win almost impossible.
surpisingly good
132. No - hence why Brown should go now - DC will not survive and there is no plan B. Cons out until after 2020.
Hey Jemma dnt U thnk Ming is SxE 2????
135
2 old! u do? r u gay?
128.The supposed “briefings” from senior sources in government change almost daily dependent on a poll, good/bad headline or a looming TUC or political party conference season. Its like the pantomime season has come early in the press with a daily cry “of oh yes he will” followed by “oh no he won’t”.
The polls may be more supportive now for labor than they were in 2005, but I don’t think Labour is CERTAIN to win an election now, as they were in 2005. There’s a feeling that things could change quickly and with new leadership I suspect the polls are less reliable.
126 Interesting quote from the BBC piece “Ministers were told that Labour’s private polling in key marginal seats showed the party had a strong lead over the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats”, in contrast to the earlier thread about tory private polling. One of them must be wrong?
107 - re your question at 31 I haven’t the foggiest why they think an Autumn election is likely. I think it’s rubbish - Rennard probably thinks its worth flagging up to ratchet up the organisation in the marginals by a few notches. Lib Dem Voice has an interesting take on it calling it ‘Orwellian’.
139 - hodges they may both be correct but have separate definitions of ‘key marginal seats.’
Does anyone know how Ming has done this morning, and how well it has gone down?
141 given that it’s private polling though, surely they would have ensured that their pollsters asked the question in relation to seats that were absolutely pivotal to whether they won or not?
Who would have though that ‘The Great Clunking Fist’ would prove himself so much more adept at PR than his opponent who apparently made a living at it and his opponents full-time PR guru Steve Hilton retained for £275,000 a year?
Just think how much of Ashcroft’s money it would have cost to get a celebrity endorsement from Margaret Thatcher? You’d be talking millions! Brown got it for free. He’s quite simply running rings round the Tories at the moment.
” There’s a lot going for Labour at the moment and as I see it any financial crisis makes a Tory win almost impossible. ”
Can anyone else see the total lack of logic in the statement?
Is Brown THAT good that he can be both the cause and the saviour with no negative effects at all?
I thought Blair had a Teflon coat, but I’m begining to think that Brown is made of the stuff.
Matt.
132 Slightly stronger, in that while the poll rating is much the same, there is evidence of relatively strong Conservative performance in the South of England (and poor performance in the North, but there are few Conservative marginals to lose there); Cameron is a more popular figure than Howard, and anti-Conservative tactical voting is less likely to be an issue than in 2005.
112.
“David Mellor…..’s hair is quite remarkable. ”
David Coleman would find this nothing to sniff at?
I can’t wait to get to the middle of October and get this will he/won’t he nonsense out of the way.
145 Sean is right. Whether Brown manages to get a majority or not at the next election, it is absolutely certain that the Conservatives will end up with more seats and Labour will end up with less.
The BOE say that legislation stopped them from being able to avert the NRock crisis, compared to how they would have acted in the past.
Presumably they told the Govt this at the time the legislation (EC directive) was being passed?
If they did then Brown is at fault. If they did not spell it out at the time, then the BOE is at fault along with Brown since his finance people should have spotted this.
Also so much for all the “red lines” about vetoing EC laws if the people with the vetoes don’t understand what the implications are of the bills being passed.
11.
“When I saw Ming interviewed yesterday it was obvious he’d come to the end of his tether.”
Obviously noyt the thinking end. She implied in public and with some distaste that she had not been involved at all in the ideas on Higher Education policy put out in his speech.
76.
Cactus abuse is hardly Cheeky Girl land - but could be the end of his leadership chances in the veg-loving Lib Dems. perhaps he should join the Tories now as a higher-IQ replacement for Cameron. It is quite possible no one would notice the difference.
Roger says: “Just think how much of Ashcroft’s money it would have cost to get a celebrity endorsement from Margaret Thatcher? You’d be talking millions! Brown got it for free. He’s quite simply running rings round the Tories at the moment.”
Oh Roger, Roger - Brown’s PR stunts may look clever to you and some of the more excitable members of the media but how will they look in six months time? Pretty tawdry and embarrassing, I’d suggest.
If Brown doesn’t dash to the polls ASAP he’s going to look like an utter plonker when his lead is eroded, and then eliminated, by ‘events, dear boy, events’.
It has to be October, surely?
I think that Ming, in his speech, was right - tactically - to try and paint the Lib Dems as the only alternative. However, in doing so he puts his party out on a limb with some fairly open goal policies for both Labour and the Tories to attack.
What other choice did he have?
However, you can’t be the alternative without significantly different policies, which means moving from the centre ground - the place where you win.
I think this is a gamble as they are almost accepting their place as the third party, a place for protest rather than of any significance.
They have confirmed that they have been squeezed out and not a major player.
Anyone who has fought a battle with the Lib Dems will know how hard it is to prize a seat from them but I am absolutely convinced that it is policies that will damage the Lib Dems more than anything else.
We know that they are very effective in getting people to vote for them as local campaigners -getting ‘things’ done in the area etc. But, when Lib Dem policy is highlighted then many of these people will have to decide if they wish to endorse specifics - as they do with the other two parties.
People will increasingly choose to vote Lib Dem on a ward level, but not support them in a GE. There is also evidence of this being the case already.
Lib Dem tax policies, immigration, EU will further increase this.
The omens are not good so far in reaction to Mings speech, although they are commenting on the party rather than his performance by the sounds of things:-
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?threadID=7472&&edition=1&ttl=20070920131510
Matt.
149. Another example of how European integration is damaging good government I’m afraid. Laws are designed by unaccountable people remote from their consequences…while local politicians often don’t bother to scrutinise them or simply use the European origin of the laws as a cover for ‘mea non culpa’ hand-wringing when things later go wrong.
Labour’s private polling may put them “about 8%” ahead, but slightly less in the marginals, say 5%. This is how to explain the apparent contradiction.
155. rubbish
How the hell do you know?
157
Because you wrote it.
139: ‘Leaks’ seldom say ‘we’re doing worse than people think we are’.
143: Only if silly stunts that will in the end backfire impress you.
If you look at the polls the Tories are on or around their 2005 levels during a period which has been really tough for them. If Brown is polling only as well as Blair did in early 2005 during his ‘bounce’ are things really that good?
149 and 155. It’s just a question of making banks actions known to their shareholders. Don’t you tghink it’s important that investors should know what a bank is up to? It’s partly because of bank secrecy that there is so little confidence in some of them at ther moment
157. RedFlump. Ignore the poster with the multiple names. Everyone else does.
Re 148 ..Labour will end up with FEWER, please
Ming will never be happy in the leadership. Not because of his age but the way he got it. It think he is still suffering from classic Macbeth style guilt.
Fines should be imposed on people who quote ‘events, dear boy’ to buttress some feeble argument.
Matt So, in your view, serious parties, competing for Government all accept the same policies? Tosh/ B..l..ks! So that was how Thatcher won? What people get absolutely fed up about is too many parties apparently saying similar things, and merely arguing on a personality basis. What they want to hear are serious alternatives. Just because policies are different doesn’t mean people won’t support it. Btw, many Tories seem to take the view that Lib Dem policies “are unpopular” or lose votes etc, and Lib Dems “hide” their policies. i can tell you they are often popular - it would, I agree, it makes no sense to go with policies having no support at all. That is why Lib Dems don’t!
Dan, 140 Thanks for your reply. I imagine you are right.
Mervyn King surrently wipeing the floor with George Mudie,I know Labour may be short of talent but letting this moron loose on a select committe is ridiculous.
In answer to TPFKAR (141), it seemed to me that Ming gave a very powerful and convincing speech at the end of the Lib Dem Conference.
I think he spent about 60% of the time speaking positively about Lib Dem policies and themes which had been developed at Brighton: he made it abundantly clear what Lib Dem values are and how they differ from those of the Labour and Tory Parties.
He devoted about 35% of his speech to a very savage attack on Brown and his record: the PBC Commentoriat are usually obsessed with the threat of some Lib Dem arrangement with Labour. After this speech, I cannot see any likelihood of that, and recommend that they have a look at Ming’s speech for themselves.
The other 5% of his speech, he spent mocking the “Cameron’s Conservatives”. This was reasonable, since there is nothing very much to attack or criticise, since they still have no policies or principles.
It seemed to me that Ming’s speech was very well received by the Conference. Obviously, it will come in for derogatory criticism from our Tory friends on here, since they do not like being marginalised.
160. More rubbish
149
‘Also so much for all the “red lines” about vetoing EC laws if the people with the vetoes don’t understand what the implications are of the bills being passed.’
The EU competition commissioner is currently reviewing the legality of the government guarantee to Northern Rock savers,apparently this level of sate intervention may be illegal.
169. Could explain why NR is at £1.94…
169 But the French have been propping up their Banks for decades! And the German Landesbanks are owned by the local authorities.
165. Thatcher won during a time when Labour were completely wacko left-wing. Ever since Labour became centrist the Tories have been nowhere.
166. Quite, what the committee needs is a real financial markets expert like Roger.
173. “So Rogers ego” is an anagram of “George Soros” - are you thinking what I’m thinking ?
174 No (didn’t the Tories try that slogan in 2005. Didn’t do them any good did it?)
171
Yes but that’s all supposed to have stopped!
Tressage @ 167: thanks, I just read the transcript from the BBC, so while it may not reflect how it went down in the hall, I’ve an idea what he was talking about, and I think your analysis is entirely consistent with that.
Good, stirring stuff overall (I thought his aside on allowing faiths to speak freely was an unexpected bonus), but the aim has to be to influence people who don’t visit this site to find out what he’s been saying - will be interested to follow reaction over the next day or so.
174. Even Roger’s bloated sense of self-importance pales by comparison with that of Soros.
170
Down 16% yesterday and a further 22% this morning,I thought that when it reached around the £2.00 mark it was suppossed to attract some takeover offers ?
171- “But the French have been propping up their Banks for decades!”
This is false, except for one bank totally owned by the state (Crédit Lyonnais) during the 1981-1995 period.
Guarantee of bank deposits is organized by a european directive. Every member sate has to have a system of guarantee. However those systems are supposed to be capped to prevent moral hazard issues : a 100% guarantee, such as the one provided to NRK, is the opposite of rewarding good management. it’s providing an AAA security to deposits in a bank whose management has managed to get a A- rating.
And now all UK banks know that they can take whatever risks they want, the government will back them up. the signal is even worse concerning bigger banks : if NRK is “too big to fail” the’re more than secure…
The FT is really annoyed by BoE and Treasury actions on this issue and I think they’re right.
The moral hazard issue is overblown. No bank would want it’s reputation torn apart like NR’s just to get access to BoE/HMG help.
167
‘He devoted about 35% of his speech to a very savage attack on Brown and his record: the PBC Commentoriat are usually obsessed with the threat of some Lib Dem arrangement with Labour. After this speech, I cannot see any likelihood of that, and recommend that they have a look at Ming’s speech for themselves.’
Obviously trying to backtrack on his committement at Harrogate earlier this year to prop up a Labour government.
Within the past hour I’ve had a short but very informative conversation with a long standing and impeccable source with excellent contacts at the very top of the Labour party.
Apart from the usual gossip of which one item was wonderfully funny but also libellous … sorry mustn’t tell
… the tasty item was a detail or two about the private polling briefed at the political cabinet on Tuesday and noted by Messr Wells and others.
The Labour lead in the polling was indeed 8% overall (same as ICM) but the swing in the Lab/Con marginals was 2%, less than the implied 2.5%. Labour were also being aided slightly by the differential swing to them from the Lib Dems in those seats.
Indeed, Ming’s speech ought to be given wider circulaton, instead of being filtered by the prejudiced reporting of lazy journalists.
I wonder if this will work…..
http://tinyurl.com/38gsy6
- just to help our Tory friends…… (and the Labour ones too).
169.”The EU competition commissioner is currently reviewing the legality of the government guarantee to Northern Rock savers,apparently this level of sate intervention may be illegal.”
Correct me if I am wrong, but hasn’t the ECB injected considerable funds into the market recently when there were rumours of a couple of German and French Banks being caught over exposed to the problems in America. The point was made this morning that the BoE would have had to inject a very large amount of money into the markets to ensure that some of it reached NR, how can it be illegal for the Treasury to intervene with a British Bank and what does that say about the independence of our BoE or the Treasury?
So do we have the BoE unable to inject a set amount of money at a specific institution quietly because of 4 different pieces of legislation, but you can pour vast sums of money into the markets in the hope that it will reach a specific target???
183 - JackW = many thanks for this. A 2% swing (to Labour I presume, from the 2005 GE) would still be excellent and may even result in some Labour gains.
” Matt So, in your view, serious parties, competing for Government all accept the same policies? ”
When did i say that?…
I said the Lib Dems have abandoned the centre ground and by doing so are going to lose support from Lib/Cons floating voters.
I’m not debating the rights and wrongs, just the facts as I see them.
I firmly believe that many people get put off by Lib Dem policy when they actual know what they are.
They would be polling above 30% otherwise.
Matt.
186, I think he implies a 0.5% swing, in marginal seats. It sounds as though both Conservative and Labour support is up in such seats, with Labour doing slightly better at Lib Dem expenses.
Did he say anything about regional variances?
186 RedFlump. Indeed, it does imply gains. However there’s many a slip between implied and actual gains !!
183 Jack W “Labour were also being aided slightly by the differential swing to them from the Lib Dems in those seats. ”
Am I right in thinking that the LibDems have historically gained share during a general election campaign as a result of the higher profile they get ? If so, there could be doubts about teh sustainability of the differential swing
Bring it on. Tory private polling says we lead in the marginals.
185- “we have the BoE unable to inject a set amount of money at a specific institution”
Exactly. This is exactly the point of european (and free-market)policies: no public money should be spent to help one single institution, because this would be extremely unfair for its competitors.
Releasing funds on the monetary markets (what the ECB and Fed did, and what the BoE did yesterday) is not a distortion of free-market: those funds are available for all takers.
This is very different from a 100% guarantee of deposits, something that no other government has offered to its banks. This amounts to a transfer of risk from NRK towards British taxpayers. The level of risk in a bank’s balance sheet is the main factor to calculate its operating margin. Therefore, Darling’s offer of guarantee is clearly a way to prop-up NRK’s financial situation, whiwh is =certainly beneficial for NRK’s clients and shareholders but a rip-off of other taxpayers and a distortion of free-market.
188 Sean. Sorry, poorly constructed sentence. The swing is 2%.
I’ve no other useful (reportable) info on the meeting.
190 Paul. Normally yes. The 05 election was somewhat different as the Lib Dems enjoyed a higher profile in the lead upto the election because of the Iraq war.
192.Thanks Chris(from Paris).
190.Paul, JackW makes a very good point about the differences back 2005. The Scottish Libdems suffered during the Scottish election with an at times almost invisible campaign, they also did not seem to have a clear defining message which separated from the other parties.
jemma at 123 reminded me of Emma from the Guardian letters page a couple of months ago.
re 186 A 2% swing TO Labour couldn’t result in anything other than Labour gains.
183 So, Jack, you reckon it’s Bermuda or Beachy Head for me?
196:
not me! btw i lke zbras 2! xlnt!
Re 190: Yes, the Lib Dems do indeed gain during an election campaign. I have polling data for the 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections, and comparing where the Lib Dems started and finished the campaigns, we get the following:
1983: Start: 18%, End: 26% (+8%), Polling Day: 26%
1987: Start: 25%, End: 22% (-3%), Polling Day: 23%
1992: Start: 15%, End: 19% (+4%), Polling Day: 18%
1997: Start: 13%, End: 19% (+6%), Polling Day: 17%
2001: Start: 13%, End: 18% (+5%), Polling Day: 19%
2005: Start: 21%, End: 23% (+2%), Polling Day: 23%
Average change during election: +4%
One small crumb of comfort for Cameron is that his ICM approval rating (-8%) and that for Yougov (-15%) are markedly better than Yougov was showing a few weeks ago.
2% uniform swing to Lab (from both Con and Lib Dem) means Lab gains in the following seats:
32 Leeds North West (Lib Dem)
31 Putney
30 Selby and Ainsty
29 Forest of Dean
28 Ilford North
27 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
26 Staffordshire Moorlands
25 Shrewsbury and Atcham
24 St Albans
23 The Wrekin
22 Enfield, Southgate
21 Scarborough and Whitby
20 Bristol West (Lib Dem)
19 Enfield North
18 Bethnal Green and Bow (Respect)
17 South Thanet
16 Reading East
15 Filton and Bradley Stoke
14 Preseli Pembrokeshire
13 Wirral West
12 Gravesham
11 Manchester, Withington (Lib Dem)
10 Wellingborough
9 Rochester and Strood
8 Dundee East (SNP)
7 Shipley
6 Finchley and Golders Green
5 North East Somerset
4 Kettering
3 Hemel Hempstead
2 Clwyd West
1 Sittingbourne and Sheppey
198 PtP. How about Bermuda Head ??
I’ve always been more inclined to think that an Autumn election was more likely than most on PB. However if pressed I’d still say the odds remain against. You’re probably saved !!
re 183. Thank you Jack. I’ve just closed down my sell position on the “Gordon Weeks” market. I sold yesterday at 86 weeks and bought this afternoon at 83.5 weeks so I make 2.5 times my stake level. Not a big profit and won’t buy me dinner in the Roger-class but will fund quite a numbers of visits to McDonalds.
203 Thanks Jack.
In the event that drastic action becomes necessary, I hereby bequeath you my ante-post voucher on Scotland to become independent by 2017.
202 Harry. The 2% swing was only in Lab/Con marginals. I’ve no info on other target Lab marginals.
205 PtP. Thanks …. 2017 Mmmhhhhh …. I’ll only be 114 by then !!
204 Mike. Surely another visit to Threshers would be better !!
207 - Or a season ticket to see Wycombe Wonderers?
WRT Nick Clegg, how exactly, do you set fire to a cactus?
Ming’s speech is getting a rave review in at least one newspaper.
But it’s inthepink news, the gay website. So they might be biassed, seeing as seventyfive percent of Liberal Democrat MPs are homosexual, and the rest are bi-curious.
208 John O wondered as a cloud ?!?!?
209 Sean. Very carefully if you did the bums rush and farted with a lighter to hand !!!!!!!
210 seanT. Well you’re clearly an avid reader !
Harry and Lab gains in some of those are inconceivable, since I know the seats.
200 Harry
Many thanks ! The level of data that some people on this site seem to have at their fingertips is astounding and part of what makes the site so compelling
213 If Labour really did win by 8%, they’d win in some unlikely places. But in reality, I doubt if Labour are 8% ahead.
109. Looks like PP could have made a bo-bo installing him as favourite to suceed Marvyn then.
Paddy Power Takes Bets on the Next Bank of England Governor
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=awLfxwYUyrVw&refer=uk
Per the story below Paul Tucker might have been priced out too far at 12/1 following his problems with NR.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/17/cnrock517.xml
NR @ 184 down 72p !
Hardly a major triumph for Ming that the headline summary of his speech is “I’m not too old to lead the Lib Dems”. Is that all he talked about? It hardly says to the nation: “I have a vision…”. That he’s raised his age does rather bring attention to something they’d have been better off burying.
Actually, “burying” is probably an inappropriate word to have used there…
His talk of a “cosy consensus” between Lab and Tory is a joke, right? There’s no-one cosier to Brown than his old friend Ming; what a cosy old time they’ll have if Ming becomes Foreign Secretary after the next GE.
Looks like Maggie might not be on the same page after all …
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/185586/what-cameron-is-missing.thtml
124 - Frank Booth “winning back such voters will make no difference come an General Election. Also worth noting that Labour have regained some of the anti-war voters who went Liberal. Again it’s not likely to gain them many seats in Parliament.”
I have also been doing some research and I think that this effect you dismiss could be more important than you realise. I looked at the 31 seats the Tories gained from Labour at the 2005 election. In 16 of these seats the Lib Dem vote increased by more than the Tory vote.
Extreme examples include Shrewsbury and Atcham where the Lib Dem vote rose 10.4% compared to the Tory 0.3%, and Shiipley where the Tories won the seat even though their share of the vote went down, simply because the Labour vote went down even more (the BNP were also a factor here).
My claim is that Labour lost voters heavily in these seats to the Lib Dems, precisely because a sizeable chunk of “heartland” Labour voters couldn’t support Blair. If these voters are returning to the Labour fold then they could well recover some [many or all] of these seats [and more besides], and it would make the Tory task of capturing other Labour seats that much more difficult.
As things stand now, Cameron might face having to make inroads against the Lib Dems to avoid a net loss in seats.
Wouldn’t there be more trading of before December 2007 on betfair if this election was going to happen? I can’t believe any insiders who thought this was so likely would not be hammering the 5.2 that’s available!
216. After Gieve’s performance at the select committee earlier his odds look to far too short…unless one makes some very uncharitable assumptions about what kind of BoE Governor Brown would like to see…
202
Your list is wrong!
26 Staffordshire Moorlands is already held by Labour! (and if there had been no UKIP, the Conservatives would have won it)..
Check the others for errors.
217
My target for NRK is 37p
221 Hi Woody. Hope you are keeping well.
I think the point is that without all the seemingly positive indicators, then the price would normally be out with the washing !!
That 5.2 is available in pretty thin trading simply reflects a level of uncertainty in an unusual political market weeks into a new premiership.
re 223 No he’s not. Stafford Moorlands is Labour on the current boundaries, but it won’t be being fought on those boundaries next time.
223 The list is correct !!! Staffs Moorlands although held by Labour is a notional Conservative seat under the new boundaries .
223: ‘Your list is wrong!’
Isn’t Finchley and Golders Green also held by Labour?
227, On new boundaries, it has a very tiny majority, either for the Conservatives or Labour.
However, it has a Labour incumbent, which gives the party an advantage.
Finally i have noticed the tories Intertwining common sense and political strategy. Osborne has put down a guantlet to Brown by saying he will embrace cross-party legislation at the earliest opportunity on the Financial Crisis.
This marker means that Brown cannot call an election (I don’t believe he ever was) as it would be neglecting the National Interest. It also means that the Tories win either way as they do not seem to be quite as boyant in the polls so stall an election and highlight Brown’s role in manufacturing an inept financial system that could cause a systemic banking failure.
Whilst there are detractors for Osborne and i was pretty rude the other day i think he has shown his skill in combining the two issues and asking the govt to work with the opposition. You cannot really argue with that?
A new series of QT starts tonight and the guests are …. oh bloody hell !!!! …. Klingons, dental misfits, a speak your weight machine and the Lord High Everything Else !!!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/question_time/7002537.stm
I was surprised at Ming’s version of David Steel’s speech.
I think Skeleton said “Go back to your constitiencies and prepare for defeat”. On top of the other statement i am a failure i think Skeleton needs to brush up on his communication skills.
SeanT- So given youv’e tried,
where would you put yourself on the spectrum 
232. Lesb1an-curious.
230. No one in their right mind watches that bollocks anyway. If the audience are a cross section of the UK they are the most boringly miserable so and so’s I’ve come across.
As for the panels…
233 seanT.
Northern Rock:
This could have bigger implications than people relise on the Housing Market. Given Northern Rock specialised in “Value” Mortgages and had products such as the 125% mortgage - (95% mortgage and 30% personal loan) i think their could be a big iompact on first time buyers from Northern Rock alone. You cut the base of a “food” chain - what happens?!
229: Yes, good old Ozzy! (Why did I ever doubt him?) It would be a hallmark of the crassest opportunism for Brown now to call a GE; his shoddy work needs rectifying and pronto. This requires dedicated, thoughtful work, and you can’t do that if pratting around marginal seats trying to justify A&E closures. No, Ozzy has killed the possibility of an imminent GE stone dead. Mike Smithson always said he was a strategist of the highest calibre, and Mike, once again, has been proved entirely right! I hope Brown implores both Osborne and Redwood to help sort out his mess. That really would be a government of all the talents!
Nick Palmer 253:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/09/18/is-it-worth-betting-on-ming-to-survive/#comments
The other day - I know what your saying and i don’t think you have miscalculated even though i disagree. I think it was the way i tried to simply outline it!
What i was trying to say was that if NHS spending had increased by 10%, the merits of that spending increase are being undermined as there is no extra premuim of spending for the new Migrants. Yes they pay tax if working (Which most of them are - Unless you live in Cambs!)Therefore the old spending figures apply and effectively underfund the NHS even if you pumped in the 10%. From your point of view that could be good and you could say we need to put taxes up more to ensure the Health system meets the demands of the record popularion…… From my point of view, i would be vindicated in my assertion and the tories would endevour to elect in government a more controled approach to immigration.
Sorry i could not get back to you sooner but i have rationed IT access! (Bet everybody is saying Horay!!
Don’t have to do Eniga style decoding on the spelling! 
Right my session on the computer is up!
237.
Martin, Osborne is supposed to be landing punches on Brown, not giving him “get out of jail cards”. Brown is more likely to call an election because the Tories are failing to score points.
Name one member of govt that Osborne has forced out. Davis has at least 4 scalps in past 4 years.
237. I still can’t decide whether you are a very subtle spoof poster or not.
Purely a betting related question/not intended to debate further debate on the whys and wheres…….
What’s the best ‘double’ of Cameron and Ming both being o/o a job by the end of 2007 across various books that anyone can find please ?
Mike better prepare an extra couple of squares for Brown when the next poll comes out. The temptation to put Cameron and Osborne out of their misery must be excruciatingly tempting for Brown. It’s hard to know what went wrong for Cameron.
I would say when he called his party in Southall ‘David Cameron’s Conservatives’. (Again a wrong reaction to a focus group which had told him he was more popular than his party). Together with his subsequent loss there it made him look like a loser
In order to even up the criticism of ConHome on this site (all too often it is thoroughly deserved I have to say) I thought this thread on Labourhome was rather wonderful > http://tinyurl.com/2vz99p
I see Iain Dale is calling an autumn election, ‘a probable’ he also mentions other polls giving Labour a comfortable lead, perhaps some inside information.
The, ‘we are doing better in the marginals’ is always used by political parties, when the headline figures are against them. In some of the marginals the Tories will be, but it won’t be uniform, and it won’t be in all of them.
245 It’s Shane Grier. Also, he’s anticipating a lead of 5-8% in polls to come, rather than implying he has any hard information.
I note that UKTV G2 is to be re-branded “Dave” in order to appeal to young men because “everyone knows a bloke called Dave.”
244 I didn’t think it was that bad. The thread on Gordon Brown meeting Margaret Thatcher was (unintentionally) hilarious.
243 - I think that the Tory leadership’s two big mistakes were (a) to overestimate Tony Blair’s popularity, and thus to think the public wanted a successor who appeared similar to him, and (b) to assume that Gordon Brown would do what they wanted him to do, by moving sharply leftwards.
Paradoxically, Roger, if Gordon Brown ran on the sort of platform you want, then the Tory leadership would be vindicated.
248 - No I think it is Iain Dale writing that particular story Sean. Shaun Greer signs his posts.
2% If it is 2%, then Labour’s lead in the marginals isn’t enough to risk an early election, IMO. 2% could easily become -2% during an election campaign. Particularly as the more the public sees of Cameron, the more possitively they appear to respond to him.
I think people are underestimating Cameron on here a little bit, to be honest. Things aren’t good right now, but as far as I can see, Cameron is still going to be a formidable leader for Brown to beat, partcularly as he is personally quite likeable and televisually impressive.
Yes, I see, although the most recent post says Ian Dale is away.
248. the Thatcher one was good but I liked that cos it highlights the clash between ideology and reality.
252 More problematic for Labour, IMHO, is if an average poll lead of 5% or so, turns into a lead of 1-3% on polling day.
249. Brown will of course be moving leftwards after the GE when the Lib Dems join his government.
I have sent Gordon a note pointing out how inconvenient an October general election will be to me and complaining about the lack of consultation. I’ll let everyone know what he says.
If there is a GE this year, I’ll certainly be spoiling my ballot paper.
None of the parties are in any fit state to govern at the moment.
The Conservatives have become a complete joke - they’re just a bunch of squabbling playground children fighting about their conkers.
Labour are a thoroughly unpleasant gang of bullying, authoritarian, control freaks.
The Liberal Democrats have so many different faces that I can’t even begin to guess at what they really stand for.
The minor parties are all either racist, loopy, naive or some combination of the three.
I’ve just about reached the end of my rope with all of the parties. Seriously, I have.
Completely O/T but was anyone else slightly taken aback by 12 across in the latest Private Eye crossword - Kill Nick and Roger! (5,3).
Is it like D-day some code from a demented Tory on here!?
Just come back from the shops. Has Brown called a General Election yet?
Deputy Governor John Gieve is the favorite to take over from King at odds of 13-8,
Paddy Powers odds on the next Gov of BoE . After todays committee meeting not a hope in hell.
He hadn’t read the Northern Rock annual report - in July where they had to declare that they had asked permission from the FSA to have a weaker balance sheet to pay a bigger dividend -this was granted.
They are still intending to pay a £60m divi.
People will get very cross if Shareholders and directors are OK after all this.
I wouldn’t be surprised if his next celebrity endorsement is Cameron!……..
Lets face it Gordon is surprising all of us. I’ve always rated him as an Chancellor and safe pair of hands but something about him was worrying.
Reading Alastaire Cambells book soothed those worries to an extent. He was the brains of the first two administrations-even Blair deferred to him as the finer politician -but still there was something. Maybe hee just seemed too ill at ease for this telegenic era?
But the truth is his political acumen is just drowning his opponents. I haven’t rated Cameron for several months but he now looks like he’s falling apart. He had the chance to look fresh and young but mysteriously chose to first ape Blair and then Brown. Why didn’t he just be himself? I can’t see how Cameron can narrow the gap at the moment and I’m sure Brown has fear whatsoever of Cameron’s Conservatives
NRK go ex div on 26th Sept.14.2p.
Current yield about 8%..After that I suspect none for years..
Guess what happens after that?
262:
Christ, doesn’t he go on…
New thread - “Is a switch to UKIP behind the Tory decline
264. The needle got stuck a long time ago.
Even if voters think Brown can handle the economy better in difficult tmes is it still likely Brown will call an election with NR share price still falling. In itself not the end of the world but surely an indication that all is still not well?
I did a big post all full of long words and elaborate similes about the future of British politics and it got somehow lost. Knobs! Big knobs!
Big hairy knobs!
So instead I shall try and sum it up in less poetic style.
If GB calls an autumn GE and wins a decent or even a larger majority, what do people think will be the result for the Tories?
It’s fascinating to speculate, on a purely sadistic-voyeuristic level.
I think the Tories could actually collapse. What is the point in them as a party? On major “rightwing” issues like tax, immigration, identity, defense, they are identical to Labour. On some of these issues they are to the left of Labour. Only Europe diffrentiates them, and that doesn’t exercise the British people (sadly).
So if the Tories get beat bad again - with a charming young intelligent likeable leader - they must surely start wondering: what more can they do?
They could, I suppose, hope for a major decline in the British economy, but even then the public may prefer to rely on Brown to get them out of trouble.
Alternatively they could hope that GB brings in some kind of alternative voting, or that the Scots go independent - screwing Labour in England - but these are long shots.
So we may be witnessing the end of the Conservative party as we know it. Which is not surprising, as the Labour party has slowly metamorphosised into the Tory party, leaving no room for the old version.
Why vote for Tories that lose (the Tories) when you can vote for Tories that win (Labour)?
268 SeanT
You have my sympathy. I have learned to copy all posts longer than three words before hitting the submit button. You can do so quickly and easily by hitting Ctl A followed by Ctl C. Doesn’t take a moment, and can save a lot of frustration.
End of the Tories? Nah, never. They’ve just got to rediscover what they’re about - governing. They’ll be alright then.
Labour went through the same process. They had to rediscover how they built their popular support. Once they did that and dished the narrow self-serving clique that had infiltrated the party, they were fine. Took time, but they did it.
[I have now copied this post before submitting.]
So if the Tories did die, would Labour be in power for the next 50 years? At some point they would have to be thrown out of office, wouldn’t they? Who would form the next non Labour government?