Is the gap too wide for Sego?
April 28th, 2007
Should Sarky backers worry about polling creep?
Taking the polls as a whole it’s clear that there has been a slight erosion in Nicholas Sarkozy’s lead since his triumph in the first round of voting last Sunday. This has been reflected in the betting in the UK.
In the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s voting Ségolène Royal moved out to about 3.7/1. That’s been edging back gently and is now at 3.1/1.
If the daily poll from Ipsos - the pollster that runs the Mori organisation in the UK - moves to 52% or 51% to Sarkozy then the final few days could create a lot of jitters in both camps.
A complicated story is developing over a planned presidential TV debate which has now been cancelled. The event was being seen as something that could benefit Royal but now Sarkozy is being accused of sabotaging it.
This is dangerous territory both candidates and who wins the spin war could benefit.
Mike Smithson
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Why has Alex Salmond been campaigning in Stirling twice in a week? It is N°20 on the SNP’s list of target seats!! (Requiring a swing of 8.46%, from 3rd place; remembering that in a 4-party system it is a heck of a lot harder to achieve an 8.5% swing than it is in a 2-party system.)
http://www.alba.org.uk/scot07/snptargets.html
If the Scottish National Party are going to start winning (or even come close to winning) FPTP seats that far down the list then I think that we are about to witness a political earthquake here. The American, Japanese and mainland European media are starting to pick up this story. This is, quite literally, going to put Scotland back on the world’s map. Mentally at least, although the UN and EU seats will remain vacant for a few more years.
This is looking more and more like a ‘97 scenario, rather than a ‘92 one. Hold onto yer breeks Gordie…
“Six days away from history?”
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=655212007
mike it’s not a “presidential” debate, it was about a debate between royal and bayrou. It will take place this morning.
Lats ipsos is 52.5 / 47.5
Chris - Are people thinking - God we cant have Sarkozy? Too foreign, too short. Oh well we better vote for the woman.
OR, Actually a woman would be a change and Sego looks presentable and French, lets give her a go.
If you have got access to the Sky News channel, give it a monitor this morning. They are rolling a West Lothian Question pop vox, contrasting public funding of a family in Alnwick (England) with one across the border in Kelso (Scotland). The particular focus is on the contrasting resources poured into state schools and universities.
According to Sky News, the Kelso family are “23,000 better off” than the Alnwick family.
Now Nick Palmer MP, Jack, and the other usual suspects… are you still convinced that the WLQ is not going to take hold in the English political debate? This is truly terrifying stuff for Brown, Reid, Alexander, Browne, Darling, Falconer et al.
“Exploring The North South Divide”, by Gerard Tubb, North of England correspondent
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-1262942,00.html
Very interesting article by Matthew Parris in the times. Backing Royal, but for reasons which are on the face of it odd. Yet as usual, he makes his point very well.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article1717452.ece
4. … that should of course be “vox pop”
3- Well for the moment, as you can see in the polls, the majority wants Sarkozy!
The “woman” issue is desperately brandished by Royal every time she can but it never really gained traction.
“slight erosion in Nicholas Sarkozy’s lead since his triumph in the first round of voting last Sunday”
Are we looking at the same polls?
Because with the exception of the margin of error +/- I dont really see any change.
Don’t try to make something into what it is not.
Royals numbers are still stuck under 50% while Sarkozys numbers still remain over 50%.
So until there is a change in that nobody should be panic or be happy.
Anyone who rejected the 66%-80% option has a ready-made bet on Betfair.You can back Sarky all the way down to 1.28(1.3 available)and lay up to 1.33(1.31 available) if you like Sego.”Talk is cheap and loud !”
This is the best site on the internet… bar one.
Off thread the story in the independent about a delayed Blair departure plus the left wing challenge begins to make the Jul-Sep Blair Switch option look a decent bet.
5. A very interesting argument, and I was pleased to see him mention Heath’s 1970 manifesto in there. The question is whether the leftist big-state, regulated, protectionist society and economy has to be seen to fail after a trial run of reforms, or whether the centre can reject the left without first having seen the other options in action.
France has only had one socialist president, and only had a really socialist government for the first few years of Mitterand’s term. That’s a long time ago and while her policies aren’t as radical as his were then (it’s a very different world now), Parris may be right to say that Sarkozy doesn’t have the groundswell of rejection of the status quo to follow through his reforms - it will take riots against a leftist government / president to gain that.
To put it another way, Sarkozy - or his successors - have to convince the French that the reforms are critical to saving France, rather than being inimical to its culture. He’s a long way from that point now.
Still, that’s all for after the elections - he has to get there first. The polls have been very static throughout the campaign with Sarkozy retaining a lead in mid to high single figures. Unfortunately, while that should mean a nailed-on win for Sarko, the polls for the first round were so far out, there have to be questions as to whether they’re telling an accurate story.
My uneducated guess is that Sarkozy will get in - though not by much - but that he will have more trouble gaining a parliamentary majority in the Summer. In other words, the French will vote for the man, but not yet the policies.
If Sarkozy didn’t “sabotage” the debate then he should have done. It couldn’t possibly be right to let Royal and Bayrou have a couple of hrs on primetime television civilly disagreeing with each other whilst at the me time agreeing about the grave threat of a sarko victory.
>Now Nick Palmer MP, Jack, and the other usual suspects… are you still convinced that the WLQ is not going to take hold in the English political debate?
Sorry, got interrupted…
Yes - it’s one of those issues like twin bin rubbish collection that people with a strong commitment to a party sometimes have strong views about but don’t really shift votes. But if the SNP were to form a devolved administration I can see general Anglo/Scottish irritation moving up the agenda, because the SNP will merrily blame anything that goes wrong on London, and some English politicians will get fed up with it. It won’t be the specific WLQ, more a “oh, why not let them push off?” mood. Ultimately, though, I’d expect a Quebec pattern, with people reluctant to vote for a split on either side, and the nationalist party moving in and out of regional office without ever quite succeedding in making the break.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6602171.stm
Rather alarming news of ethnic tensions in Estonia.
14. Nick Palmer MP - “… the nationalist party moving in and out of regional office”
Mmmm… that is quite a concession from a Labour MP! It is certainly a very far cry from then Scottish Secretary (and later Secretary-General of NATO) George Robertson’s famous pre-devolution war-cry that devolution would “kill nationalism stone dead”.
Was George wrong Nick? Did he, just perhaps, ever-so-slightly mislead the electorate?
Exactly how wrong he was we are about to find out on Friday…
16. I’m reluctant to join this debate, as pretty much every post you make is concerned with the SNP / Scottish elections, irrespective of the subject of the thread and in European and global terms, the French presidency is of much more importance.
Still, I know you’re confident, Stuart, but there are a few points to make. Firstly, any politician predicting the consequences of policy runs the risk of being wrong and ‘misleading the electorate’. I’m sure we could find examples of SNP poiticians predicting things that turned out differently in the end. Were they misleading the public or simply misreading the public?
People vote for political parties for all sorts of reasons. I’m sure many SNP voters want an independent Scotland, but some will want an SNP administration within the UK and plenty of others will just want to give Blair and Brown a kicking and use the SNP as the most convenient vehicle to do so.
While the party make-up remains as it is in Scotland, I’d agree with Nick. All political entities develop forms of opposition one way or another, either between or within parties. Scotland’s has developed to be between Labour and the SNP. Labour remains the main force but the SNP exists as an alternative. Sooner or later, Labour has to lose, therefore someone else has to win; that is not the same as a pro-independence vote.
Scottish Independance won’t come from the SNP instead it will come from the English who are increasingly get fed up having to pay for Scotland but getting nothing like the standard of services that are available north of the border.
On the topic of the thread…
yes, it is.
The WLQ is one of those factors, like PFI, could easily swing an election but only if the Conservatives run with it and all the signs are that they will not, presumably because it would mean writing off Scottish Conservatism.
So the realpolitik is: the WLQ doesn’t matter.
14 - the choice for the English isn’t between the Union and Independence, it’s the amount of money they give Scotland. It was inevitable that devolution would put the Barnett formula under threat, because every time the Scottish start spending the “extra” cash on things that the English don’t have, whilst bringing “common” spending more in line, the whole case for it weakens.
It is interesting what you are saying Stuart, as i have said before on here there is no sign of an SNP surge here in West Lothian.
Now i got to thinking maybe it is just here, after all we have a decent council (it won council of the year in the UK) and maybe we do not have the local issue to go with the big national question.
So i took myself to Govan yesterday and prepared myself for a right “kicking” however after i arrived there was a number of very upbeat canvassers saying how well it was going.
Now i have been in this game too long to take that on face value as most of then where rather young.
So off i went with clipboard and flak jacket to a few streets that i had been told where 50/50 the last time (as most of Govan was)
I must admit i did not find a huge surge, don’t get me wrong they where not falling over to vote Labour but the vote was solid.
Lot of concern about what would happen to the shopyard etc if the SNP won, all the issues you would expect.
So the story in Govan is a good one for Labour, i did however pick up stories of probs in other areas, so we will defo lose seats, but prob nowhere near what some think and we may end up (by default and a wierd system) the biggest party.
For info the swing in govan is lower than what would be needed in Linlithgow and Livingston, both seats Labour look like holding.
Anyway i let my heart rule my head and put a few pounds on Labour @ 2-1
You never know!.
Yet another comment by David Herdson that I agree with - please don’t move to Broxtowe, David, I don’t want to have to vote Tory!
Spoiling this cross-party amity, can I enquire whether Tories here feel that the Mayoralty selection is showing DC as having sound judgment? Here we go again:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1717355.ece
It’s all reminiscent of the EPP business - fairly unimportant in itself, but a pattern of interminable fumbling. (What’s happened about the EPP, by the way? - I’ve lost track)
Stuary Dickison: I don’t know if the SNP will make it to the executive this time, but I expect they will one day, but not that they will succeed in splitting Scotland off. George Robertson thought something else? Um, Labour MPs sometimes express opinions that differ from each other and former colleagues. I know it’s shocking.
1.”Why has Alex Salmond been campaigning in Stirling twice in a week? (Requiring a swing of 8.46%, from 3rd place”
The SNP candidate is quoted in saying that it’s close in Stirling (not sure if he meant between SNP and Lab or a 3way close race).
If the polls (yougov and ICM) are right, Stirling should be indeed close.
“The American, Japanese and mainland European media are starting to pick up this story. This is, quite literally, going to put Scotland back on the world’s map”
ah, yes, an Italian paper had a piece about Sean Connery and Alex Ferguson pro and anti independence stences 2 days ago
Well this poll is certainly interesting. With Sarko’s Betfair odds 1.27/1.31 and a last trade implying a near 78% probability of victory for Sarko, what are the 65% of people that voted less than 80% up to?
One could conclude that the Sarko price should really be more like 1.2. There’s clearly no appetite for laying Sarko @ 1.27/1.31
I disagree with the assertion that Sego’s price has come in at all. The most liquid barometer of Sego’s chance to win is not the “bookie average”, it is simply the inverse of Sarko’s price on Betfair. Sarko’s ultimate low was 1.24 but has not traded much volume below 1.28.
Hills let me have £5k @ 1.57 on Sarko to arb. I would guess they took at least £25,000 that day the price was so out of line (anyone have any colour on that?) - people closing their arbs may be the only reason Sarko is not 1.2 right now..
22.”I must admit i did not find a huge surge, don’t get me wrong they where not falling over to vote Labour but the vote was solid”
In seats like Govan where the 2003 SSP vote is bigger than the Labour majority, if SSP vote directly go to SNP (but maybe all those business talks had upset some former SSP), I suppose Labour can lose even if their vote remains solid.
25. 1.20 for Sarko would imply about 6.0 for Sego which would look to me to be very generous in a two-horse race race where the polls (now with a recent history of being some way from perfect) show about a six point lead.
There are a lot of uncertainties: turnout, how the losing candidate’s votes will go now the contest is real rather than hypothetical, whether the electorate will get cold feet on Sarko’s reforms now it’s down to the wire among others. I did vote for the 66-80 option myself, but think it’s towards the lower end of that range.
O/T (and repeated from an earlier thread, where it got buried): Am I correct in remembering a market last year (on Betfair?) on results in individual councils? Is there any sign of such a one this year? And indeed (sorry if I’ve missed something elsewhere), are there markets to be found on individual constituencies in Scotland or Wales? (I suppose the answer may be that, if these things haven’t appeared yet, they ain’t going to now).
O/T sorry 9but at least not SNP/Scotland!)
Anyone know of any bookies taking bets on Welsh Assembly seats? Not the usual marginals - I’m interested in seats in the north like Delyn & Vale of Clywd.
23. “Spoiling this cross-party amity, can I enquire whether Tories here feel that the Mayoralty selection is showing DC as having sound judgment?”
Yes, Nick - anyone who praises Sir John Major, a brilliant PM IMO, gets extra points in my book.
Mind you, I’m not a real Conservatice (merely just some bloke who votes for them - although I’m lending one of my votes to the Greens this year).
In seats like Govan where the 2003 SSP vote is bigger than the Labour majority, if SSP vote directly go to SNP (but maybe all those business talks had upset some former SSP), I suppose Labour can lose even if their vote remains solid.
True.
However, the ssp vote splits around 60-40 to the SNP also the labour vote last time was down because of Iraq, this time the large muslim community are more onside.
Again not fully behind just a little better also around Govan there is a very strong pro union vote (it is the home of rangers fc!) this looks to be heading labours way this time.
It will be close but i think Labour can win it, and i expected a hell of alot worse when i went there.
But there again a full and his money etc
All I can say is, for the sake of France I hope the gap is too great. The last thing it needs is someone who promised £E 30 billion more in spending without saying where the money was going to come from.
24. Which is the other party in Stirling.
BTW Anyone agree with Sean Fear about the Greens and Brighton Kemptown. Anywhere else for them. TBH I don’t think Tatchell can do it, but he he can easily take enough votes to let smith survive when he should be easy meat for the Lib Dems.
29. That is frustrating. I can only find seat totals, or seats Llanelli where the result is known. The bookies appear to be protecting themselves from local knowledge. Caerphilly is worth a bet although whether it is Ron the Badger himself or Plaid remains to be seen. But Labour can still do it.
It’s just going to have to be Steve Norris again. At least he won’t embarrass himself. I don’t think it’s Cameron’s fault that nobody of any serious calibre wants to put their name forward. And anyone who thinks “bendy buses” are important, let alone something to put at the heart of a campaign, is not someone of serious calibre. Which basically rules out the whole known Conservative field.
33.” Which is the other party in Stirling.”
the tories who were in second place in 2003. At Westminster level it was Michael Forsyth’s seat
24. Andrea - “ah, yes, an Italian paper had a piece about Sean Connery and Alex Ferguson pro and anti independence stences 2 days ago.”
Dagens Industri (the Swedish equivalent of the Financial Times) ran a Scottish Parliament election story a couple of weeks ago - giving independence a fair wind. And I hear that one of the big Japanese papers featured the Scottish independence aspect.
33 - Perhaps you should go on a tour of Wales to find bookies that actually have some local knowledge, and are therefore prepared to take you on. Some people on here seem to think that bookies purpose is to donate money to people rather than take it from them.
You’re better off trying to get Betfair to do something, although it’s probably a long shot.
35. Possibly, just possibly, Salmond was trying to boost the campaign in neighbouring Ochil…where the SNP are very much in contention…
33 Punter - It’s Brighton Pavilion not Kemptown and knowing the constituency very well the Greens could take it in a byelection but not a GE .
Re Oxford East the vote is already well split with people voting Green in local elections and LibDem in the GE and I don’t see Tatchell changing this to any extent at all .
Well, when I looked in here in the wee small hours I was slightly surprised to discover that Our Genial Host had gone with the French election so few days before the Scottish (and Welsh) ones, particularly as nothing much seems to have happened across the Channel.
Like others, I tend to suppose that Scotland may well become the U.K.’s Quebec, always threatening to leave but never quite actually doing so. Have there been any polls on what the Scots would like for their currency - the Euro, U.K. pound, or one of their own - when they last had a Pound Scots, it was worth 5p, wasn’t it?
38.”Salmond was trying to boost the campaign in neighbouring Ochil…where the SNP are very much in contention”
Since Ochil is already SNP held at Holyrood level, in the current political climate it should be a hold for them even if the a popular incumbent is retiring.
39. I do for you. Every vote counts and with the media profile he will get I can easily see Tatchell mustering the few thousand votes difference between a Lib Dem MP and not Lib Dem MP. Hence I think Andrew Smith will be cracking open the Champagne. At the least his chances of survial against all odds have gone and increased considerably.
BTW On May 3rd will there be three threads one for Scots, one for Welsh and one for English Locals, although I’m sure the Scots will take them all over.
42.”BTW On May 3rd will there be three threads one for Scots, one for Welsh and one for English Locals, although I’m sure the Scots will take them all over.”
Isn’t 3 threads a bit difficult to follow at the same time?
I should have 3 windows open at the same time just for them…and with lots of them open to follow BBC website, council websites and co.
My computer would explode!
40. The official exchange rate in 1707 was 12 to 1…the ‘market’ rate may have been weaker still.
For all those of you out there who are getting fed up about hearing about Scottish politics… things may get an awful lot more tedious for you after Thursday
Let’s face it, if the SNP make it next week, this will be one of the biggest events in the (relatively) brief political history of the United Kingdom. Please allow us to get just a little bit excited about that. After all, France elects a president with monotonous regularity, sometimes left, sometimes slightly less left. It really, really does not make much difference. The dissolution of the Union however would earn a very prominent place in the history books. But in 100 years time it will be “Sarkozy/Royal (delete as appropriate), who were they?”
43. Andrea - “My computer would explode!”
Andrea, you are such a politicoholic that I do sometimes wonder if your brain will not explode before the poor computer! You are worse than me, and that is saying something
On the local income tax - how are central grants for scottish councils currently calculated?
#23 Nick Palmer MP.
Obviously, I can see where you are coming from on the Quebec issue, but I suggest that it is worth bearing in mind that the referendum in 1995 was lost by only 1% of the vote-hardly enough to suggest that the SNP could not achieve independence at some point if the parallel holds.
Another major difference is that Quebec had nowhere very obvious to go/be, unlike Scotland which can readily be accomodated by the EU no matter what nonsense is talked about re-application etc etc.
23 - hmm! The EPP question for Cameron. I remember. I believe he is waiting for the ODS in the Czech Republic to make up its mind.
Now the Czechs are a beer-loving nation, and the ODS is planning to sell off Budvar, the last state owned brewery. Prior to this the PM, Mirek Toplanek, is going to do an inspection of the brewery(!)
I understand something of the Czech psyche and feel the ODS will be very badly damaged by the sale of such a national treasure, which plays right into the hands the American brewer, Anheuser-Bush, who make a rather inferior beer call Budweiser, and who have been in dispute with Budvar for 100 years over product names. The brewery has stayed in state hands to protect the brand from the American imitator.
This will become a major issue in Czech politics, and if the ODS becomes unpopular over this, Cameron may lose his prime-bedfellows for his new grouping, and will be left only with assorted extremists.
Yes, Cameron’s pledge on leaving the EPP really could be scuppered by beer…
Number crunching wanted. IC Wales or a column said Labour could hit 1983 levels but still have enough to reform Lib Lab Govt. Are those numbers correct.
47. alex
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/local-government/17999/CoreRevenueFunding
Stuart. Is Sean Connery-one of the worlds most famous tax exiles- really good news for the Nat’s? He’s recently insisted in shooting a commercial in France because he’d used up his allocation of tax free days in the UK. I know the Scots have a reputation for frugality but does a multi millionaire avoiding tax really project an image that Alex Salmond is happy with?
[52] All parties like tax-avoiding multi-millionaires, Roger, they write much the biggest cheques
45. Stuart I think you’re missing the point that Nick and David are making - that even if the SNP forms government next week, it doesn’t necessarily mean it can get the numbers up for a referendum on independence. If the SNP form government it will be because in its search for a Government:Opposition dichotomy, Scots have settled on the SNP as the alternative as opposed to the Conservatives as in England.
Perhaps it’s sort of similar to the polling that suggests 20-30% of NI Catholics would prefer to remain within the UK. Just because they vote for nationalist parties doesn’t mean that their views themselves are nationalist.
To answer the question,I suspect the gap is too large for Segolyne Royal to close, and I place Sarkozy at 4 to 1 on.
That said stranger things have happened. I was speaking a someone from France last night and it staggers me how much their heads are in the sand about how the economy needs reform.
Interesting Cameron was in the Vale of Glamorgan yesterday. The Tories must feel they are close to deploy their trump card in that Constituency so very close to polling day.
52. I predict if the Lib Dems et all are clever they’ll let the SNP form a Government but a minority one. Once the SNP Health/Education/Environment Minister delete as appropriate has to take an unpopulat decision we’ll see how solid their support is.
Re 45. I think the ‘dissolution of the union’ is a long way off. Antipathy towards a malfunctioning Westminster government manifesting itself in a mid-term protest vote does not represent a groundswell of support for cessation. Obviously the SNP is looking forward to its day in the sun and will spin it as a great day for the seperationist cause.
Come the next elections, with a record to defend and with Blair fading into memory the SNP will slip back into single issue obscurity. Scotland will start be part of the union.
France or Scotland? For me the most significant political event overnight was the devastating kicking Adam Boulton got on “Have I got News…” for his new lab links. His reputation for political independence crumbled as the guest list of his wedding was read out.
“The Tories must feel they are close to deploy their trump card in that Constituency so very close to polling day”
Is Cameron really the Tories trump card in Wales? From what I hear that’s not the case in Scotland.
59. Yes. Don’t forget Wales’s media is largely London based. Very different from Scotland as well.
BTW It has emerged the Lib DEms candidate in Cardiff West is a past receipient of an honour from the British porn industry, well who said Welsh Liberal Democrats were boring!
58 - hardly
“has emerged the Lib DEms candidate in Cardiff West is a past receipient of an honour from the British porn industry”
in what capacity?
http://cardiffwestlibdems.org.uk/images/sites/84.234.17.197-450951ee5cc1e9.01174711/static/1.jpeg
“well who said Welsh Liberal Democrats were boring! ”
No-one. Recently they’re more in the news for their sex lives than anything else.
Why is a 2.5% swing so dramatic in the closing days of the French campaign? Seems completely irrational to deny its possible. I suspect this is all talk motivated by CASH! - ramp down Sarko so you can get out before its too late.
Remember Major got an 8% swing in the last 8 days of his campaign, and the left in Germany a 5% swing in the last few days of the campaign about 5 years ago.
There is one stat. that may make all the difference. There have been approximately 3 million voter registrations amongst groups that normally don’t vote - the young, etc - many motivated by a desire to keep out Sarko. In the first round the most accurate pollsters got the Sarko vote spot on, but underestimated the Sego vote by as much as 2-5%. This would be enough for Sego to win the second round. Many underestimate the impact these new voters will have, and the pollsters have already shown that they are not good at picking up these new voters.
Also Le Pen voters significantly reducing their likelihood of voting Sarko puts Sarko in great trouble. He is relying on these voters for his right-wing aggregate. If it is crumbling he cannot win.
63 - there’s only one person around here who could be accused of ramping French Presidential candidates for cash…
Why don’t you mention the polls that got Sego very close to bang on, but severely underestimated Sarko? (in fact ALL of them underestimated Sarko).
Re Stirling (1, 35, 38, et al): Of course, two other reasons that Salmond might have been campaigning there are a) to give the _impression_ that the SNP are on the verge of winning it and that we are in for a political earthquake (aims to be self-fulfilling, gives his supporters a filip, puts the fear of God into his opponents, risks being taken for hubris among the undecideds); b) the symbolism of campaigning in a seat that includes Bannockburn, Stirling Castle and the Wallace monument, all of which goes down well with the Braveheart vote. (Oh, and in a council area that in the eighties was led by a certain Jack McConnell, if memory serves me right.)
I’d have thought the SNP should be fairly safe in Ochil this time. As for Stirling (I speak as a former resident): the Tory vote is pretty solid in the rural west of the seat, parts of west Stirling and Dunblane, but pretty weak in urban Stirling and Bannockburn. So if the seat is becoming a three-way marginal it would be because of a Labour-to-SNP direct swing. It’s possible but I can’t quite see it myself.
Where do you get all your polls from anyway?
Final first round polls:
Ipsos Sarko -1 Sego -2
CSA Sarko -4.5 (!) Sego -0
Ifop Sarko -3 Sego -3
TNS-Sofres Sarko -3 Sego -1.5
BVA Sarko -2 Sego -0.5
Alex you’ve ignored the other 3 points I’ve made. Any response on these, fellow Tory?
And alex you’ve misread my original post. I refer only to ‘the most accurate pollster’ in round 1 - that is specifically to that pollster.
1. 24. 65.etc.
Only 61% voted Labour or Tory in Stirling at the General Election - so there is potential for an upset there.
Alex Salmond has been touring Scotland by helicopter - that should guarantee him Green support.
#65 Historically the SNP have often done well in Stirling itself. The Provost for a time was none other than the first ever SNP MP, Dr Robert McIntyre.
Of recent decades this (varied boundaries of course) has been a tight Lab/Con marginal at Westminster making it difficult for people to do other than tactically vote. With the SNP credible nationally, some Conservatives may well vote for the SNP to stop Labour knowing that the Tories, even if they win the seat, are of marginal significance in Scotland.
Back from canvassing this morning. Found a very anti Labour dog and nearly lost a finger. Otherwise, all’s well in this Tory fiefdom.
#31 fred2 etc.
The point I would make to you about both Govan and Linlithgow (West Lothian) are that these are the last places to look for a big swing to the SNP. The SNP has been the major opposition player in these seats for decades and only need modest swings to gain them.
A victory of any kind in these seats would be indicative of much larger swings elsewhere.
Re 71, Jonathan, It’s the way we train ‘em
71. Maybe it was just a tactical biter?
Labour do have some problems in Stirling to the extent that they dropped a council candidate shortly before the nominations were due in. They were apparently concerned that standing two candidates could have meant neither would have got in as their vote had declined. So they decided to stand just one.
However from what I’ve heard there is no big swing to the SNP in Stirling. As for Ochil it’s one of the few seats Labour lost in 2003 that they are really putting in effort to retake although I very much doubt they’ll do it.
Andrea - I think you asked about the electronic counts. Apparently you will be able to see the votes the candidates are getting as the count is in progress. This means that seats can be called before the result is formally anounced.
65. Could that open the way for the Tories to win as in St Albans.
59. Difference also between Wales and Scotland the nationalist leadership. SNP have Salmond and Plaid have well er well IWj. Were DW still in charge Labour would be creamed of that there is no doubt. He cuts across boundaries in a way no other Welsh Politician does. I can only think his health is why he hasn’t taken the party back long before now, and why he is No2 on the North Wales list. In other words he is standing not so much to get in as use his name to pull upwards other PC Candidates on his coat tails.
62 See IC wales.
For you gamblers out there, with regard to the Scottish Parliament. William Hill have quoted a number of seats for each party (SNP 42.5, Labour 40.5, Lib Dem 22.5, Conservative 15.5) You can bet under or over that number of seats at odds of 5/6 or 1.83 in decimal terms. If you think you know your stuff in terms of seats, you can go for the four way accumulator that comes out at roughly a little above 10/1. Just though some of you may be interested.
68 - it’s a shame for you that you can’t go back and edit your own posts…
You can hardly rely on the evidence of “the most accurate pollster(s)” on the basis of their final poll but then bring in all their other polls when they were miles off to claim that they were “massively underestimating Sego”
Either they were the most accurate pollster on the basis of their final poll and that is the ONLY poll you use (ie. Sarko -1, Sego -2), or they weren’t the most accurate pollster.
FOUL PLAY BY LABOUR
Will the Scottish election be easy to rig? Now there is an electronic counting system, and no automatic random hand re-count of 1% of ballots, as used in all genuinely democratic countries, it will be easy to rig. You can just make up the figures reported as the result. Only those that have access to the software on the counting machines will know the truth.
With cries of foul play against Labour ballot riggers widespread at the last two local elections and general election, how blatant do you think the ballot rigging will be this time? The ERS is a bunch of crooked Labour cronies.
Wasn’t postal voting created solely so that Labour could rig elections. And postponing the count of postal votes to the Friday - AFTER THE NIGHTS MAIN COUNT - is cleverly designed to concentrate rigging where it can have maximum impact in changing the result. This was much harder before this change was made.
Remember the Democrats have rigged elections for decades in the US using similar techniques (e.g. history books tell us that Kennedy won in 1960 because the Chicago ballot was rigged - which the mafia have helpfully boasted about for decades), which Labour is obviously trying to import.
May be the ‘Stalinist ruthlessness’ is no mere conjecture, but a living reality. If you can’t win, rig it. That’s the old labour adage.
29 Try Jack Browns - Odds given on individual WA seats - but you will need to knock on their door as they dont have internet site - but now part of Ladbrokes so you might be able to bet on-line.
76. I agree with you about IWJ - he is a very shrewd politician but does not have the weight and public profile of Alex Salmond or Dafydd Wigley - Labour would be dead and buried by now if DW was in charge instead of IWJ, and they would be begging Plaid for a seat at the table!!
But you have to applaud the Plaid campaign and in particular the work done behind the scenes by Adam Price - surely Plaid’s next leader
78 (con) - in addition you can clearly see that what ALL the pollsters struggled with in the first round was gauging the relative split between Sarko/Le Pen and the relative split between Bayrou/Sego. This is not an issue in the second round polling.
WA: The latest polls from Beafort/WM & NOP/ITV do not tell the whole story - WM poll was already 1 week out of date when it was published, and ITV just missed the row about coalitions which has totally destroyed Labours ‘Vote Plaid Get Tory’ strategy.
Providing there is not any dramatic events happening next week (eg Tony Blair declaring war on France), I predict that the final voting in Wales will be Labour 31%, Plaid 29%, Cons 20% LD 12% Others 8%
And the seats will fall out as Labour 23, Plaid 16, Cons 13; LD 6; Ind 3
And that is where I will be placing my money this week.
83.” ITV just missed the row about coalitions which has totally destroyed Labours ‘Vote Plaid Get Tory’ strategy. ”
ah, yes, it’s now “vote Plaid, keep Labour in power”, isn’t it?
O/T Betfair is currently completely down!
If you run this type of business, shouldn’t you have back-up systems, not to mention back-up to back-up systems, not to mention back-up to back-up to back-up systems to cover every possible eventuality. Punters must be absolutely confident of being able to trade their positions at ALL times.
What a bloody mess!
81. DW can get rural Tories and Valleys Labour to vote for hium says it all. Re Adam Price don’t think so. He’s more your Lord Rennard excellent strategist but would you make him leader. HMJ would be better if she can cut down on the South East Wales bashing.
83. I still think the Tories will do better than you anticipate. Their support will come out and it has risen since since 2003 as well. Lot depends on the top up but I see them on 15 at present. Whether you outpoll the Tories in seats and votes depends a lot on how you fare against Labour, only with rare exceptions are you directly against Tories.
86 Mostly to do with lack of Conservative presence …..
Conservatives will pick up their vote, and constituencies, but will be limited in terms of nett gains because of losing list seats.
I stand by my seat predictions +/-1
Only a few more days to go!!
85 - Well I was going to do a bit of trading on the cricket but it’s raining, a fitting end to this most dismal of competitions I feel.
My friend Graham Thomson has done a comparison of the 2007 and 2002 first round results, aggregating the parties into Left, Centre and Right:
02 07 Change %
Left total 42.9 36.4 -6.5
Centre total 8.7 18.6 +9.9
Right total 48.4 45 -3.4
The groupings are:
Far Left: Anti-globalisation (Syndicalist), PCF, RCL (4th International), Workers’ Party, and Workers Struggle.
Left: Citizens Movement, Green, Left Radical Party and Socialist.
Left total = Far Left + Left.
Centre: ‘Citizenship, Action, Participation’ and UDF.
Right: Forum of Social Republicans, Hunting, Fishing, Nature Tradition, Liberal Democracy and UMP.
Far Right: Movement for France, National Front and National Republican Movement.
Right total = Right + Far Right.
87. That has been true in some Valleys seats since oh 1900. Not that PC can crow too much either. For a party that wants to be the Party of wales your presence in Wales’s thre biggest cities is non existent.
Labour are bullying the Scots into staying in the union. The more you do it the more the Scots will vote SNP! What benefit is the union for England? What about McCrone report about independence for Scotland and why was it suppressed? Roll on independence and better government for all home nations.
I saw the piece on sky today and can identify with some of the antipathy towards the ungratefulness of the scots. It is a bit like living in a council district and seeing your tax being ferited away to a much smaller council and the reciepients stick two fingers up at your largesse!
As far as i am concerned “Oil” has been catastrophic to the English manufacturing economy. When the pound became a petro-currency in the late 70’s and early 80’s it squeezed manufacturing in England. Companies became even more uncomptetive than they were due to the union actions and persuvived quality lapse asociated with British manufacturing at this time. My folks used to own a manufacturing business employing hundreds of people and they discovered it could no longer compete over a 15 year period to the mid 80’s. So for the Scots to say that the English have benifited from “Oil” that greatly is a misanomer. Many people in the west midlands and the north formlerly employed in manufacturing are now trapped in call centre’s or other “hamster wheel” employment. If you have not worked in a call centre then you do not know what it is really like! You wake up at night hearing the bleeps of a call! Arghh!!!!!
69. ‘Only 61% voted Labour or Tory in Stirling at the General Election - so there is potential for an upset there.’
There is, if most of the remaining 39% were to get behind one candidate. But that would be a big ask.
70.
‘#65 Historically the SNP have often done well in Stirling itself. The Provost for a time was none other than the first ever SNP MP, Dr Robert McIntyre.’
That wasn’t recently, though. The SNP have only had at most 2 councillors in the current seat over the past twenty years, and while that doesn’t do full justice to their level of support (which is spread out across the seat, rather than concentrated in particular areas) it is indicative of an ability to put down deeper roots. And they lost their remaining councillors in 2003.
‘Of recent decades this (varied boundaries of course) has been a tight Lab/Con marginal at Westminster making it difficult for people to do other than tactically vote. With the SNP credible nationally, some Conservatives may well vote for the SNP to stop Labour knowing that the Tories, even if they win the seat, are of marginal significance in Scotland.’
Some may (some probably did in November 1974), but I suspect most won’t. I used to live in one of the Tory-held wards in the seat and I can’t envisage many local Tories voting tactically, given that the Tories are starting in second place.
92. Individual’s may point to monetarism as excasibating this trend in sterling, however i would say that Labour started this move in 1976 and as a result of the IMF loan crisis instigated a move to moneterism. It would have happened anyway as it was part of the IMF’s conditions that the UK adopt these policies. So both Tories and Labour get slapped with the naught stick but i genuinly believe that the “petro-currency pound” did for british manufacturing.
94. Is it fun debating such points with yourself?
92,94 It is worth remembering that a huge error was made in Geoffrey Howe’s first budget in 1979-putting up VAT from 8%-15% .An inflation rate of 9.8% was inherited by the incoming Conservative govt in May 1979- it is estimatable the VAT rise put 5-6% on the RPI-this was compounded by the rise in oil prices in late 1979-and finally,public sector workers had an above-inflation pay rise in 1979,(the Clegg report into public sector pay,commissioned in early 1979 after the Winter of Discontent),was implemented in full,despite (a)The imprudence of this (b)Thus setting a precedent for the private sector.
The oil shock was unavidable-BUT,and it is a big ‘But’,taking out VAT rises and the consequences of Clegg,there is no way the RPI would have risen from 9.8% in May 1979 to 21.0% in May 1980.The B of E base rate reached 17% for a lengthy period,the pound rose to $2.40,crushing manufacturing industry.It is estimatable that at least half of the rise in unemployment in the first term of Mrs.T was attributable to these gross economic errors.
The most disgusting event of the Scottish election to-date happened in Hamilton today where Joke McConnell our out-going (hopefully)First Minister decided to campaign in Hamilton- having been booed and jeered by the public over Labour’s school closures policy on South Lanarkshire Council the Finance Minister and incumbant Labour MSP for Hamilton South, Tom McCabe, attempted to punch an SNP Councillor- all caught on camera by the BBC and various reporters! It has led the BBC Scotland News tonight- clearly a man worried sick that he is about to get a boot in the ballot box! This clearly demonstrates the depths Labour have sunk to- its a disgrace and even though I am an SNP activist and candidate I am sure people from all other parties will join me in deploring the actions of Scotlands Finance Minister today!
97. It didn’t do Prescott any harm, did it?
true- for hitting someone who tried to hit him first- not the case here- it was an unprovoked attack- typical of Lanarkshire Labour!!
“I am an SNP activist and candidate I am sure people from all other parties will join me in deploring the actions of Scotlands Finance Minister today!”
Every time I see Alex Salmond on TV I’m surprised someone doesn’t clock him one! If this SNP Councillor is half as smug then I’m sure they’re cheering to the rafters down Sauchiehall Street!!
Roger- Geography clearly isnt your strong point- Sauchiehall Street being in Glasgow, not Hamilton! As for smug- I take it you havent noticed how smug our current PM is- clearly not!
99,Although it is an old case,as I recall John Prescott re-acted to a missile being thrown from close quarters-it is common sense,beyond any scoring cheap points,that Prescott re-acted-I certainly would.However,it sounds as if verbal tuants were the only provocation in Scotland today-which makes it much harder,even as a Labour voter,to defend what happened today
HaniltonNat. Come on! Don’t tell me you can look at that puffed up penguin and not get an overwhelming desire to land one on him? And you’re a supporter! Imagine what it must be like for your countrymen who aren’t?
103. Advocating violence against political opponents are we. I thought we’d left that kind of politics behind in the 1640’s..
Dictionary Definition -
Smug - adj. - ‘Michael White’ (qv)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnR-BAhA2WE&mode=related&search=
Hi Paul. Sorry I missed you at the book launch.
‘Smug’…what about Andrew Neil?
104. I know that, and wouldn’t inflict violence on any of them, but I detest his smugness, it’s so creepy. God help us if he becomes first minister, and has his pictures over the papers all the time!
107 -
Oily - adj. - ‘Andrew Neil’(qv)
The photos managed to miss me too.
108. Detestation is to be expressed in the ballot box not throgh hitting people. And if you don’t get the result you always want well that’s Democracy baby, sometimes the other guys win I guess.
107 - Neil also comes under the heading of ‘unctuous’ if you are feeling more poetic.
No…….. I can’t think of anyone more smug than Alex Salmond! Even Portillo giving his ‘Who dares wins’ speech didn’t come close. Not even Jeffrey Archer. Sorry Hamilton but he’s on his own!
‘Unctious’….Neil on the nose!!
Is this the only video of the accident?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_6600000/newsid_6604300/6604327.stm?bw=nb&mp=rm
I see Dale doing a WA special. Anything interesting, or is he just doing it because Wales will be a Tory good news story next week unlik Scotland probably. Cameron’s presence shows that. I bet he’ll be more West of Offa’s Dyke than North of Hadrian’s wall in the week coming.
Roger, you are not putting yourself, or your party, in a very good light with those remarks.
Thanks Andrea. That’s the first time I’ve seen all the Scottish leaders in action. The Lib Dem looked a little feeble but why he chose to be filmed in a pig sty is a mystery. It certainly would explain why he looked so nauseous. Annabel G looked the part. She reminds me of one of my school matrons.
Come on Stuart! Don’t tell me you aren’t inundated by people talking about Salmond’s smugness? It’s just unavoidable! (I surely don’t need to tell a ‘grown up’ that talk of ‘punching’ was a joke?)
But surely, according to the gospel of St Rik, Cameron will be in England (nay, Reading) the whole of next week……….. Reading is where the Lib Dems are set to lose 1,000 seats, no less.
Tressage - why are you such a d*ck?
116&118.I am against a fervent whipping up of nationalism North and South of the border, just remember that it can have repercussions for those who choose migrate to either part of the UK!
118
Roger, I would start getting used to Salmond, as after next Thursday as he’s going to be a major thorn in Gordo’s side for the next few years.
Should be fun though, Salmond in what used to be Labour’s heartland on one side and English voters on the other continually questioning the legitamacy of a Scottish Prime Minister pushing through legisalation that does not effect his own constituents.
Why would anyone migrate to Scotland?
Today’s Ifop down to 52,5-47,5, same as Ipsos, confirming the slight tightening of the race.
53% of Bayrou voters going for Royal (47% for Sarkozy - abstentions not included) i.e. a smaller lead than Ipsos. Le Pen 73 vs 27, about the same as Ipsos.
58% of Royals voters expect Sarkozy to win.
Exactly. Why would anyone migrate to Scotland? Its usually the opposite.
125
No top-up fees and free care for the elderly?
124.
I don’t see any tightening. Ifop hasn’t put out a poll since the 22. Todays poll is just showing what the others are showing +/- the margin of error of course.
Roger accusing others of being smug - priceless. Where is Pot and Kettle when we need him most?
apparently there’s a poll in the notw tomorrow
Re Alex Salmond. A friend of mine who comes from Carlisle was taken ill on the train home (the London to Glasgow service), and Alex Salmond was very kind and helpful to him. There was no publicity in it for him, and no votes either, since my friend is an Englishman living in England. Alex Salmond is a decent bloke. I suggest you restrain your thuggish instincts, Roger.
126.”No top-up fees and free care for the elderly = no investment in our Universities and as for free care for the elderly, well it ain’t happening in a lot of places and that regularly makes the local news up here.
Don’t get me started on the NHS up here.
It looks like everyone was out in the sun today. Much fewer contributions!
131. Scotland has surely been a net exporter of people for the last 1000 years or so, since Ken McAlpine’s mob moved in. Even the vikings preferred to stay offshore in Orkney & Shetland.
Iain Dale reporting details of an ICM poll in the NoW tomorrow. Apparently David Cameron is only 5% ahead of Brown and Brown leads among 18-24 year olds. I am sorry but I just don’t buy that one and the fact that the Young Conservatives membership is now larger than Labour and the Libdems combined makes this suspect?
134. MORI, perchance?
An SNP rep on the radio today puts it thus.
By voting for the SNP you are not voting for independence, they are giving people the choice on it.
Its very much code for ‘vote for us, stick the boot into Labour in the nost effective way’
134 Young Conservative Membership has always been higher than the other parties combined . When I was a lad many years ago their membership was probably 10 times the other parties even I was a member for the dances and posh tottie .
136 Yes but you wonder if post election they will take the line that all those who voted SNP
OOOPS continue … were pro Independence
135 No its ICM
130. “I suggest you restrain your thuggish instincts, Roger”
Hoots man, Fergus! it’s a braw bricht moonlicht nicht the nicht, och aye the noo. So cheer up! .
The Brown-Cameron figures (37:42) are suspiciously high suggesting it was a “forced choice” poll
142 Yes does not seem to be a normal voting intention question .
Re 105, UKPaul, “Smug - adj. - ‘Michael White’ (qv)”
Love it!
The ICM poll results look as though the questions were bolted on to the firms regular omnibus surveys where no efforts is made to ensure a politically balanced sample. So it cannot be compared in any way with findings where a voting intention question is put.
It is totally out of line with other ICM findings and Friday’s YouGov survey.
Given the timing it will have a big political impact
134.
Remember, remember we should always expect the occasional outliar poll.
Statistical theory predicts these will occur. To remove their influence we adopt a ‘poll-of-polls average’. This average is very stable and shows Brown approximately 10% behind Camaron as PM.
typo - Cameron
76: Punter asks why Wigley is nit leader of Plaid. Well quite simply he was subject to a plot that saw him allegedly resign for health reasons. He then sulked and decided not to stand again in 2003.
As to why he is number 2 on the list - well it is because Plaid have a policy (adopted when Wigley was leader with his support) to put women at the top of the regional lists. Plaid decided againt changing this to accommodate his return.
Would Wigley have resulted in a better Plaid performance? Yes, we can safely say that!
Rushanara Ali has been selected as Labour candidate for Bethnal Green and Bow. She’s the former Parliamentary assistant of Oona King
http://www.youngfoundation.org.uk/about/people/staff/rushanara_ali
Scottish Results
I remember someone seemed to think that Labour would get more than 40 seats in the SP. Why? Wasn’t any detailed reasoning.
My own calculations - which have been carefully worked out using past Scottish elections and the most relaible pollsters give a figure of 38 seats for Labour as the MAXIMUM. Can someone explain why they thought Labour would get more than this?
I have factored in tactical voting against Labour, based on evidence from local by-elections in Scotland.
Re 132, Will L, No out campaigning, in my case keeping the LD’s on the back foot and making them work really hard just to hang on.
151.
Keep up the good work.
Have a look at this newspaper website straw-poll.
Note the Herald is a Labour paper!
http://election.theherald.co.uk/electionvideos/
Poll is on the right-hand side.
153 Well I have just voted in it and I don’t live in Scotland or get the Newspaper - It is totally useless .
154. No, it’s a sign that the SNP has the best online organization. They’re best at stuffing the ballot boxes of online polls.
Re 137; I was a member (briefly) of the Young Conservatives for exactly the same reason as you. Being a student at that time I also joined the Labour Party and was persuaded by a faction calling itself “the Workers Revolutionary Party” to join the anti Vietnam war demonstration at Grosvenor Square. I joined the SDP when it was formed and very much enjoyed the “last hurrah” with our candidate Mike Potter when we almost defeated Leon Brittain in North Yorkshire. Politics is such good fun!
154 & 155.
Sour grapes!
Re 152, Will L, Many thanks I will!
I have to say I am flattered at the effort they are putting in. Shame about the accuracy of the leaflets though.
156 Ah but did you get off with any of the posh Tory girls . Nearest I got was to watch colour TV in her home when it had just come out .
148 I agree Wigley would have made a better leader for Plaid but remember Guto he didn’t run off and join the Tories.
157 By all means please keep using such data as a basis on which to place your political bets .
149. ‘She’s the former Parliamentary assistant of Oona King’
bound to lose then.
If a fanatically pro-Labour newspaper has the overwhelming majority of its readers voting SNP, then the situation is truly dire for Labour. Although this is not a scientific poll, it is indicative. The disparity should be no where near this great if Labour had any chance - the SNP really are heading for a landslide.
Take the This Is London website of the Evening Standard. When they ask such a question the Tories get no where near this level of support, even though the paper has tended to be fairly neutral rather than pro-Labour.
And yes most of its readers are Scottish readers and voters! - take a look at its comments section.
If a major Scottish newspaper, which is vehemently pro-labour, has so many SNP supporters amongst its readers its over for Labour in Scotland. Imagine how many readers this newspaper is losing just because of its unpopular pro-Labour stance! It is not commercially sustainable.
161.
Mark Senior, as you are aware Yougov has been the basis of my bets. Take a look at all the bookmakers and the odds for the SNP and Labour - they agree with me, rather than yourself Mark Senior.
And Mark Senior, if you are so convinced that Labour will do well go on Betfair right now and buy up the Labour position. You can get £50 at 3.25, and £51 at 3.05, and £100 at 3.0. If you don’t Mark Senior than we can only guess you know you’re wrong, and are just too pathetic to admit it on this site.
164 I think SNP will have a larger number of seats than Labour and have bet accordingly but that does not mean that I think they will be below 40 seats .
Back to France,
After a week of thought, the loss of most of his MPs to Sarkozy and a two-hour debate with Royal, Bayrou has just taken to the airwaves to announce who will get his vote next weekend…..
28/04/2007 - 22:35: Bayrou ne sait pas pour qui il votera
Is it me or has he just killed any chance he had of ever becoming president?
You get around, Will L - identifying poll fraud before the poll, unmasking the Electoral Reform Society as a Labour front, boosting Sego, advising on Scottish newspaper marketing… lol
Back from 8 hours on the doorstep today. It’s seemed pretty OK again the last couple of days, after a ropey period last week. A striking feature has been the extraodinarily and presumably deliberately low profile of the Tory campaign. I don’t mean they’re not doing anything, but that it’s so uncontroversial as to be hard to get a grip on. I have a leaflet from them for Chilwell West, a battleground ward where the parties were only 20 votes apart last time. They ‘interview’ their three candidates. Haven’t got it to hand, but from memory, one says that (unspecified) improvements are important, and he wants to see Chilwell get its share. Another says she wants to work for the good of the community: the interviewer adds that she already plays an important community role, since she is Secretary of Chilwell Conservatives. The third says something which I’ve forgotten already.
Presumably this is the Cameron strategy applied locally - we’re nice people, vote for us. Will it work? Maybe. Is this a pattern being seen in other boroughs?
167
Sounds like it will be just a formalty for Labour next week in Broxtowe.
Evening all
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=451219&in_page_id=1770
If others have commented on this already, then apologies. Rallings and Thrasher weren’t that accurate last year. They overestimated the LD performance and underestimated the Conservatives.
Apart from the Tory trolls on here, who can be ignored, even the more thoughtful Conservatives are spoken of Labour losses on a greater scale than 500 and I’ve seen few cautious enough to predict only 300 or so Tory gains.
There have also been plenty of predictions of 40%+ for the Conservatives - yet R&T say 38% which would mark a slight retreat for Cameron.
The only other point I’d make is that as I recall, the Conservatives had 12,000 councillors in 1979 and reached a nadir of under 5,000 (briefly having fewer than the LDs in the mid-90s) so Labour are approaching depths similar to the Conservatives in the bleak midwinter of the mid-90s.
“Imagine how many readers this newspaper is losing just because of its unpopular pro-Labour stance! It is not commercially sustainable.”
Mind you, Nationalists don’t exactly have a history of ensuring the financial viability of ‘friendly’ newspapers.
167. Well, someone had to make up for the lack of contributions! In London we don’t have any elections so it’s been rather boring. Just the sun to cheer us up.
Good night chaps.
172. Good Night!
How many Scottish polls will there be between now and Thursday? I think an ICM poll is still expected. Will there another yougov or not?
I’m sure some strange pollster (SO or the other one) can come up with SSP leading next week though
O/T - election junkies might like to know that the (Irish) Sunday Independent is reporting that Bertie Ahern will ask the President to dissolve the Dáil tomorrow (Sunday) in order to hold an election on May 24 (though the President is leaving the country tomorrow so he might have to get up very early to ask her). Unfortunately the evens that Paddy Power was offering on an election on May 24 is no longer available as that market is down now ;-). If I spot any value in the odds for the Irish GE I will post them but, like the Northern Ireland elections, most of the odds look mean with only a small number of good value gems.
Re: 174 - Related to that, I saw a poll in (I think) the Irish Times today that indicated the country almost split equally between the two possible coalitions.
I think 36% backed a Fine Gael-Labour-Green Coalition while 35% favoured the existing Fianna Fael-Progressive Democrat coalition. More usefully, 41% expect the existing coalition to win the election. More details here:
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2007/0428/1177280515619.html
169
Railings and Thrasher were miles out with their projections last year,so does this have any credibilty,we will soon know,if it’s a repeat of last year I would suggest that the BBC et al find people who know what they are doing.
175 - “More usefully, 41% expect the existing coalition to win the election.” Actually that’s not that useful - the election result is very much up in the air but the chances of the current government winning are roughly zero (ok maybe a 10% shot at best). I’ve been saying this for about 2 years but it’s only very recently that a return of the government has drifted from favourite (!) out to, now, 7/1 with Paddy Power. I dont think it’s good value at even 7/1 - I cannot see how both government parties can do anything but lose a good number of seats. The polling the Times reported today was a useful indication (mostly because of the change since they last asked the question) but very artificial as voters dont actually get to vote for coalitions.
176 R and T are well respected and normally certainly know what they are doing but I agree they were way out last year in their projection .
The yougov with the large sample (1,800) on Scotland is finally out
Constituency vote:
SNP 38
Lab 30
LD 15
Con 12
Regional vote:
SNP 32
Lab 27
Con 14
LD 12
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.1362947.0.8_lead_for_nationalists_10_swing_to_salmond_20_of_labour_seats_lost.php
179 Not as large a sample as I had hoped for .
1800 is plenty large enough for a larger sample not to make any significant difference.
177. Its about time you turned up young man, I’m still trying to get a hold on things down below.
There appears to have been a decisive swing to Fine Gael in partciular recently. Whats been going on? For some months I thought that Bertie was on for another term but it really looks to have slipped away. Are we writing his obit too early though?
Secondly, do you thing FG & Labour are still likely to bring the Greens in?
167 /you said that the other day, how the Tories had been low key except for just canvassing and leafleting.
What else are they supposed to be doing exactly? Hiring Morris dancers?
169 I have predicted Tory notional vote share above 40% but you shouldn’t make the mistake of thinking that a big lead and hundreds of seats won’t be a win for us if it falls a little short. We are going to do very well and Labour very badly and I think the LDs badly. That’ll be good enough for me.
In other words I expect, but don’t demand, Tory gains of more than 500 seats.
181 Don’t agree there Alex , Scotland we are usually told is a very diverse country and therefore not easy to conduct a poll , some German polls are regularly 4,000 to 5,000 .
184 - I think the size of Scottish polls is irrelevant. They don’t seem too much in line with each other, even allowing for 3% MOE.
Re: 177 - I bow to your greater knowledge of these things, Neil. I think after the 2002 debacle, the only way is up for Fine Gael. As I read the numbers, the present Coalition has 89 and the opposition bloc 57.
In a Dail of 166 members, that provides a huge chance for the present majority Government to lose its majority. That said, it looks a tall order to see the current Government being overtaken by Fine Gael-Labour-Greens in terms of seats again as I see it.
185 Yes agree they are not very in line and that is I think because the country is very diverse with polarised support hence I had hoped for a 1 off much larger sample .
Re: 183 - So, Test, as a Conservative activist, the benchmarks are 40% of the notional vote and 500 gains. Thank you.
182 - FG / Labour will NEED to bring the Greens in, they haven’t a chance of getting enough seats by themselves.
Bertie is still favourite but a lot has been shaken by a recent poll (the later findings of which Stodge has linked to above) showing Fianna Fáil at 34% and Fine Gael at 31% (an unprecendented figure for them in recent time). My view has always been that the markets completely underestimated Kenny’s chances of winning (I backed him at 3 on betfair and he drifted out even more after Bertiegate). The recent poll has caused the markets to reassess the situation and they are probably at pretty fair levels now but likely to give better value on Kenny in the near future if a more “representative” poll comes out showing Fine Gael at more realistic levels than 31% (which was probably an outlier).
186 - I agree it’s a tough ask for FG / Labour / Greens to win - however if they fail then, as FF / PD’s will almost certainly lose a lot of seats, the alternative will not be the current government but probably FF / Labour or some other arrangement.
Benchmarks for brilliance!
Benchmark for very very good is 200. I’m just trying to be honest. What is good is based on our historic position, we are defending such a high base and looking to gain more from Labour who are already down to their core. All the easy wards have gone!
But just because 200 would be very good under such circs doesn’t mean I don’t think we’ll do even better than that because I do.
What’s the LibDem benchmark? Some LD risibly claimed on here that static (for the second year running, with Labour at an all time low) would be good for the LibDems.
187.Agree with with you there Mark, glad to see that your principles did not let you get in the way of meeting “posh tottie”
166. Mister Chip (and Chris from Paris if he is around)
The real question is: does it *feel* as if there is an unofficial collusion between Royal and Bayrou? And, if so, does this conceptually play positively or negatively with voters?
It seems to me that the general trend amongst Anglo-Saxon electorates is to be cynical of any such alliances, whether they be amongst parties or amongst individual. The European tradition, however, seems much more inclined towards such compromises, culminating with the barely believable situation after the last German election. I think it is fair to say that ideas of pacts or coalition as a rule tend to weaken a party’s position over here (or in the US, Canada, Australia &c) whereas across the Channel they need not be seen negatively. So how is it playing now in a) Paris and b) France?
190 The benchmark is surely to do better than last year . Therefore 300+ gains for the Conservatives from 4,400 odd seats should be rather more from 11,000 seats up this year .
One day it is inevitable that the Tories will start to lose seats one May. When will that be? They cannot have year-on-year gains forever. And the better their results each year, the sooner they will find they make losses one May.
When did the Tory revival at local government level start. Were they already making gains before 1997?
Similarly, one day, Labour will be starting from such a low base, that modest gains will occur. When will that start?
I note that unexpectedly the Sunday Herald has declared a preference for an SNP led coalition. Such support for the SNP is without precedence. It may truly be all over for Labour this time.
189. Do you expect a squeeze on the few independents?
193 - “Therefore 300+ gains for the Conservatives from 4,400 odd seats should be rather more from 11,000 seats up this year.”
So, working on the same ratio, we should expect to see net gains of 5 seats by the Liberal Democrats?
193 - Wouldn’t be sensible to peak too early.
194 Probably from next year when the seats contested were last fought in 2004 . Last year Labour lost 319 seats out of around 1,750 they were defending . This year they are defending circa 3,000 including Scotland so prorata they should lose around 550 plus say 100 more in Scotland because of the change in voting system there .
197 - I certainly don’t expect five gains for the LDs.
200 - I expect more than five - or possibly fewer than five. I would be very surprised if it was exactly five.
Re: 190 - Test, I’m slightly trying to bait you but I think it will be significant to see where the Tory gains come from. It isn’t about picking up seats “in the heartland” but about how much progress the Conservatives are making in the midlands and the north-west. These were the areas which delivered the Conservative victories in 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992.
Moving from 35 to say 38 seats out of 40 on an authority doesn’t represent progress but breaking through in the likes of Bolton, Bury and elsewhere will be significant.
I have to say the LD you accuse of being “risible” was probably me. I think this “the LDs should be making dozens of gains with Labour at an all-time low” tosh is equally risible. We will clearly lose seats to the Tories in areas where we took seats off the Tories in the long years of Tory weakness. There are fewer seats to take off Labour. It is to be hoped that we will gain more seats from Labour than we lose to the Conservatives. In the unlikely event that we do well against the Conservatives, you and the other Tory activists will have plenty to worry about.
Re: 189 - The issue for me is that it looks very hard to form a Government without Fianna Fail. They just seem so dominant especially in the rural areas. As you say, FF/Labour has happened before between 1992-94 when Dick Spring was Foreign Affairs Minister but that coalition ended badly as I recall. I thought FG/Labour was the “alternative” to FF.
195. It seems that polls from reputable pollster have been pretty stable in showing a SNP lead recently. So SNP being the most voted party on Thursday looks like the most likely outcome to me.
One interesting scenario is that if Scottish polls are right (not in just having SNP ahead, but also having SNP 8/9% ahead), it could result in some Labour big hitters being ousted (Andy Kerr defending a 15% majority or Wendy Alexander defending a 19% majority)…who would be left to lead the post McConnell Labour? Lord Foulkes? (with all those potential losses he can get in with the list part)
Re: 194 - The Conservatives recovered some ground in the 1997 County Council elections compared with 1993 but the 1997 poll was on the same day as the General Election and the higher differential turnout helped the Conservatives regain control in places like Kent and Surrey, which they had lost in the 1993 debacle.
In 1998, the Conservatives in some parts of London (Bromley for example) actually did worse than in 1994. Other areas such as Sutton saw a very small recovery. Croydon was, I think, a mixed story with a loss to the LDs offsetting a couple of gains from Labour but still nowjere near regaining control.
I would place the first real improvement as 1999 when I think the Conservatives gained 1,300 seats (they had lost over 2,000 in the same round in 1995).
# 204 Andrea.
An even worse case for Scotland would be if Labour just hold on, but lose a lot of big hitters (none stand on the list) leaving Scotland with an unambiguosly weak set of Labour representatives trying to run the country (a lot of the people on the Labour list won’t expect to have been elected-some probably don’t even want to be!).
Going back to local fights, I have penned this on what is happening in the ward I am standing in:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/04/liberal-democrats-panicking-in.html
I suspect the LD’s are a bit concerned. I can’t say I was impressed with the level of truthfulness in their latest leaflet either.
Having just come in from an SNP function tonight I am amazed to find the Sunday Herald giving the SNP the nod in their editorial. Today was a strange day from the last Saturday in previous campaigns. Normally when you had out a leaflet people politely take them or refuse them but today our stall in the Town Centre had people queuing up to speak to us about a whole range of issues. Quite a few said they had already voted by post and voted for us, many for the first time.
Soon be Thursday and we will see how true it was.
Scotland on Sunday (the other quality Scottish Sunday newspaper) fails to endorse Labour saying “Labour has produced a creditable manifesto to put to the voters - its proposals for education are particularly far-sighted. Yet the Labour party does not deserve another four years in office.”
The article, albeit reluctantly, sides narrowly with what it says is the hope offered by Salmond held in check by Lib Dem coalition partners.
This opinion is not what Labour can have hoped or expected though it does not endorse the SNP with anything like the vigour of the Sunday Herald
207. Looking forward very much to your failure next week.
Re 210, ColinW, thank you so much, that is exactly the sort of comment I would expect from a person such as yourself.
210. Awww, bless.
212. Well past your bedtime,surely?
211,Although in fairness,Benedict,are you seriously expecting other than being f***ed north of the Border-sorry to be blunt:wink:
209.”its proposals for education are particularly far-sighted”
TomR, on their current track record I would only trust them to be far-sighted in attempt to improve their statistics at the expense of standards.
I had to wake up to see if anything has happened. And my goodness. You must, must read this.
http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.1362928.0.ba_vote_for_change_is_a_leap_of_faith_its_a_leap_this_newspaper_is_prepared_to_makeb.php
Re 214, Patrick, I am not standing north of the border so I have no idea how it is going there!
214. Patrick, from what I am hearing on the ground it sounds like Labour are going to be the ones with glum faces on Friday in Scotland. The voters don’t seem to be asking the Conservatives to take the blame for 10 years of Labour in Westminster or 8 years of Lab/Libdem management in Holyrood.
O.K-217 and 218 in one fell swoop!
On Thursday,the present govt will be 10 years and a couple of days old-I have watched,studied UK politics for nearly 20 years and know bloody well the Labour Party will be SLAUGHTERED.
Whether or not the SNP do well enough in Scotland-and lets be frank,another hung council is the overwhelming favourite,changes things,will be dealt with in due course.(And ditto Wales,if the Labour Party are two or thgree seats short,in their conext,does it matter??!!)
England-now this is substantive.
I will let some into a secret-I am slightly Asbergers-ie remeber dates,data,stats etc.I do rememebr the 10th anniversary of Mrs.T,on May 4th 1989.At the time,we were swinging away from the Tories winning the 87 election by 11.8%-to a projected 4% lead on the night in May 1989.The BBC put up 12 key marginals-Southampton Test would just have gone Labour,and there would have been a majority of-4,mid-term,for Neil Kinnock-I felt ill that better could not happen.
O.K-I am loooking out for the 8% swing from 2005-which allowing for differential Lib DEm drop in southern seats would,cicrca,result in an overall Tory maj of somewhere between 40 and 80-sorry to be imprecise but I’m allowing for some southern Lib DEms to hold on-I did try,honest:lol:
“Posted by: martin, East Kilbride on 11:38pm Fri 27 Apr 07
Tonights INSIDER REPORT
Canvas returns continue to be poor and there is despair in the Lbour camp. All out effort has been demanded to save Glasgow. There are worries about an MP defecting to the SNP at the weekend … you heard it here first.
Tonights INSIDER REPORT
Canvas returns continue to be poor and there is despair in the Labour camp.
All out effort has been demanded to save Glasgow.
There are worries about an MP defecting to the SNP at the weekend … you heard it here first.”
Re 219, Patrick, looks reasonable to me!
221,Cheers ,Benedict,hope you’rw well,amte:wink: After a tumultoous day re football,my beloved West Ham may yet stay up-it is still quite a big ‘May’.Hope everyone accepts I am going for bye-byees-I WILL do my best to yield mathematical analysis on Thursday night/Friday morning as it comes-pardon me if witnessing said night drives me to get very pissed:lol:Byeeee!!!
156. “Being a student at that time I also joined the Labour Party and was persuaded by a faction calling itself “the Workers Revolutionary Party” to join the anti Vietnam war demonstration at Grosvenor Square.”
I am confused… do you mean it was actually the WRP or another group pretending to be the WRP? If the latter, what group actually was it?
And on that note I am off to bed!
219&220. The fortunes of the Conservatives and the Libdems in Scotland on Thursday will be a side show for the main event. The fight is between the SNP and Labour, I will predict that the tories and the libdems will out perform this weeks result at the next GE where the SNP are not in contention as a party for Westminster.
Was speaking to a relative in Fergus Ewings constituency today, he is a long time SNP activist in this area and is reporting that Labour voters are switching straight to them. He was with his local SNP candidate for the locals, they were canvassing and leafleting this afternoon when he was approached by a long time Labour activist in the area. The man announced that he would be voting SNP, he had quite a rant about Blair, Iraq and Labour in general. He was shocked by this announcement because this guy has been very active in the Labour party for years.