CR Poll - Labour down to 1983 levels
April 24th, 2007
New poll suggests the Tories could get a majority of 6 seats
The April poll by Communicate Research for the Independent this morning has some bleak news for Labour as it prepares for next week’s elections and the coming leadership change. For the survey reports the following with changes on last month - CON 36%(+1): LAB 27%(-4): LD 22%(+2).
The detailed data, which helpfully is published this morning as well (other pollsters please note), reports shares for the minor parties of SNP 4%: GRN 3%: BNP 2%: UKIP 1%: PC 1%.
A real worry for Tories, surely, is that in spite of the Labour collapse their party is not appearing as a big beneficiary although Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus suggests that these figures would give the party a majority.
UKIP, the hope of those on the right of the party opposed to David Cameron, records another miserly score. The Lib Dems must be pleased with the 22% showing as they approach next week’s election.
According to Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report the firm is now following the practice of the other telephone pollsters, Populus and ICM, and has adopted past vote weighting. This means that comparisons with pre-March CR surveys when the firm was recording the best Labour figures should be avoided.
For Labour the only consolation is that when you are down as low as 27% there is really only one direction you can go and the scope for a Brown bounce is even larger.
The April ICM poll which was expected in the Guardian this morning seems to have been held over. It will be interesting to see if it shows the same trends.
Mike Smithson
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Presumably the political explanation for these figures runs something like: money is tight and life is hard for working class, natural Labour supporters who are thus ill-disposed towards the government (and this is why the budget income tax stunt was bone-headed); however, there is no reason for these disaffected former Lbaour voters to support the Conservatives, and in the absence of any actual policy announcements, nor can there be.
If this is the case then the Labour meltdown in the locals may not be as bad as many anticipate. We shall soon find out.
2. Two (2!) WA Polls out shortly - NOP/ITV Wales on Thursday; Western Mail/Beaufort Poll on Monday (1 week later than originally planned - why?)
Should either stop the arguing about the last WA poll - or crank it up completely………
1. Isn’t that a rather unusual interpretatation of this poll? A more Sun-like and likely accurate conclusion might be if it looks like a turd and smells like one it probably is one.
I’ve thought that Labour has led a charmed life for most of the last five years despite spectacular Orwellian sinister dreadfulness. They always do better than I think they should even trying to shed my political prejudices (does anyone else feel this way?) - maybe it’s just taken a while for their sheer stomach spinning awfulness to filter through to the average voter who is less interested in politics.
4 I came over a bit seanT for a moment there. It has passed.
Ridiculous poll, we are nowhere close to 36%, my guess is locals will have us as high as 42%.
Wait and see on May 4th after the results are in.
5 This is presumably a poll for the GE… not the nationals. I think most people would expect the LDs to do rather better than 22 and Labour somewhat worse than 27?
Locals I mean not nationals….
4% for the Scottish National Party in a GB-wide poll is yet another indication of what is likely to happen next week. The SNP got less than 1.5% of the GB-wide vote at the UK general election in 2005. An awful lot of polls now have found that support for them has approximately doubled in less than two years.
Hold onto yer breeks Gordie, this is going to be a rough ride!
“the only consolation is that when you are down as low as 27% there is really only one direction you can go and the scope for a Brown bounce is even larger”
Several replies to this one…
1) Roger? Is that you there?
2) Tell that to the Liberals.
3) Labour Support is probably overstated. Many Labour voters wont vote. Just as many Conservatives couldnt vote for Rubbish John Major.
1 “there is no reason for these disaffected former Lbaour voters to support the Conservatives,”
I disagree. Most of the problems caused for the working class are due to Labour’s immigration policy - importing a new working class.
A larger population means greater job competition & lower pay, fewer houses & higher house prices.
If Tories return immigration to Pre-Labour Levels and Deport Illegal Immigrants, the working classes would benefit.
8. 4% means anything between 3.5% and 4.5%, and then it means plus or minus the margin of error (which would be 1.2% if it’s a sample of 1000 people), so that means anything from 2.3% to 5.7%. That is all assuming that it is not flawed or distorted in other ways, of course.
I don’t think you can distinguish locals vs ge right now, if they went to the country tomorrow they would get massacred.and we are being welcomed on the doorstep in Lab areas.
11. JohnLooney
Quite right too John! I am a heck of a skeptic myself, after having practiced the dark arts of market research myself for a while
However, even us skeptics must acknowledge that the ‘worst-case-scenario’ of 2.3% for the SNP is still a 64% increase in support! And the ‘best-case-scenario’, for all you fans of Scottish (and English) independence, is that the SNP are really at 5.7% of the GB-wide vote = a 307% increase in support
Nae bad, whichever way you look at it…
Nonsense. The numbers of immigrants, legal or not are swamped by EU citizens able to come and work here in exchange for us being able go and work or live in other EU countries - It seems a fair exchange to me.
Perhaps more relevant is that the UK is now officially a tax haven for rich foreigners who don’t pay enough tax. The poor are paying too much.
CommunicateResearch interviewed 88 respondents in Scotland, 61% of whom were “absolutely certain to vote”.
(% change from UK GE 2005)
1. SNP 35% (+17%)
2. Lab 27% (-12%)
3. LD 18% (-5%)
4. Grn 6% (+5%)
5. Con 4% (-12%)
But by far the most interesting statistic is if you compare those ‘top line’ numbers with the respondents’ answers to:
“Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as… ?”
1. Lab 27%
2. SNP 24%
3. LD 12%
4. Grn 4%
5. Con 2%
This shows the “default” profile of this sample, and it illustrates the full scale of the problem for Labour.
(Health Warning: 88 is a tiny sample size, and - far more importantly - the sub-samples will not be properly weighted.)
14. Its not a fair exchange, you go try making a living in Poland. Having said that, I support their right to work here, if only we could deport the council estate chav scum in return.
15: 88 makes the health warning pretty critical Stuart! Can’t really read anything into that kind of sample size. Get 888 then I’ll take it seriously.
And pleasing to see the LDs going up in campaign time - when people look at what we’re saying in campaigns and have more contact with local activists, ratings go up thankfully. I was out canvassing again last night, and although apathy still rules, where I am there isn’t the promised groundswell of Conservative support one or two posters on here would have us believe.
17. tpfkar - “Can’t really read anything into that kind of sample size.”
Normally I would agree, but the problem for people who ‘cannot-believe-their-eyes’ at those findings is that they are totally in line with the plethora of Scottish voting intention polls we have been treated to over the last few months.
A poll showing net lib dem gains is by defintion a good poll. But I find this a bit odd, and wouldn’t draw any conclusions at all from it.
I find this Poll very odd. Unless mass abstention is in the air. I don’t believe the Tories are only 36% nor probably Labour 27%. Is not a) CR’s methodology still in a state of flux and b)relatively recent. Stick to ICM, if they show those sort of figures then start to believe them I think.
BTW How do CR compare with understatement/overstatement of each party.
18 Stuart - Even an optimist like myself wouldn’t say that “Tories at 4%” is “totally in line” with other polls.
15.
CommunicateResearch found only 2 Tory voters in Scotland!! - out of a GB-wide sample of 1000. (Is this a new record?)
Now, if the Tories are doing that badly north of the border, surely they must be doing very well indeed in parts of England, in order for them to end up with 36% in the top-line figures?
noisy summer wrote: “council estate chav scum”
Nice.
22. Peter Pigeon
Yes, but Peter, you must compare that 4% with the fact that only 2% of the Scottish sample generally “think of themselves as Conservatives”. In other words, look at the relative performances of the 5 parties, compared to the ‘default’ profile of that particular sample. In those terms, this CommunicateResearch subsample is totally in line with all the other polls.
24. most people think it really!
The long expected chink of light…….confirmation that the Tories are on a one way trip to palookaville. The Labour score is pretty meaningless. They are a leaderless shambles. I’ve no doubt that when they regroup under a focused new leader they will show the dwindling band of Tory switchers that politics requires more long-term than a haphazard PR exercise however occasionally slick to get the public interested.
How ironic that when France have shown how energized the electorate can become when they are given a serious choice we should have as our main opposition party a bunch of chancers who think their way to success is to follow the blancmange that was Tony Blair’s last few years. No wonder ‘others’ are on the move.
Roger if u are pinning your hopes on a pollster like this u must be desperate!
27 - Fantastic effort roger…. I look forward to your bunker-esque posts with growing relish each morning.
Unfortunately, since Brown’s coronation becomes ever more a certainty, in the eyes of ordinary Joe on the streets, then voting intention questions now are most likely answered with Brown in mind as leader, as much as with Blair at present. I’d say high 20’s is where Labour are, and that certainly isn’t a “meaningless” position by any stretch of the imagination.
I’ve always said we’re looking at a dead cat bounce for Brown. There is even a chance that we will see a further decline in Labour’s position.
Rather strange how little publicity this poll received. Nothing on newspaper reviews last night, only one mention on BBC telly this morning (as far as I saw).
Labour MUST have a leadership contest. Brown’s “accession” will really p*** offthe public even further. Follow this link and join the growing number of people on Stand Down Meacher! 111 in 24 hours!
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2345666146&ref=mf
The above thread clearly demonstrates the validity of the old adage ‘rubbish in, rubbish out’.
27, Roger, is this a five minute argument, or the full half hour?
What exactly do these “more powers” that the Lib Dems in Scotland want, consist of?
O/T France
Today’s Ipsos poll is unchanged : Sarkozy 54 / Royal 46
My God - if Labour polls that low in the next GE, I’ll top myself!
Look, let’s take it at face value, Blair and Labour are not liked at the moment and everything that goes wrong (rightly or wrongly) is being blamed on the government. Blair should have gone last year and we in the party are suffering for it.
BUT, let’s take a deep breath here. No matter what polls say, GB will take over and the VAST majority of the party will (MUST) unite behind his leadership and the new policies he will offer. I don’t know who Susan Caler is, but she does not represent the HUGE majority of people who will welcome Gordon with open arms after the last few months we’ve had.
And notice, it’s stll not as if the Tories are on 44-45% or more. A year or more of focussed, disciplined leadership around a new, strong leader should see us through.
Chins up comrades!
Before this thread gets taken over by people who try to ignore reality because it doesn’t suit them, I’d just like to mention these oft quoted seat predictor tools.
These well designed tools are bunkum because they fail to adequately take account of differential swings.
34 MAinly Nicol Stephen to be First Minister, I expect!
36. I’m sure ze V-rockets will turn ze tide of ze war too, mein Fuhrer - your personal astrologer is certain of it!
36 If you say it often enouh redflump you’ll start to believe it!!
In all honesty I don’t think CR have much of a track record. GE wise Labour are going to get more than 27% and I don’t think ICM wil be as bad for you. In the locals though I think you need to be prepared for a good kicking and won’t get much above 25%, coming third.
36. Man threatens suicide on internet!!! As if this blog didn’t have enough readers.
I doubt the Conservatives would get a majority on 36% but then i doubt the conservatives will get 36% (or labour be as low as 27%). Others are at least 5% too high.
Rumour has it that The Herald is soon to publish another poll by mruk showing Labour AHEAD in Scotland –against all other polls,including this one.
Your bet regarding the last mruk poll wasn’t taken up Mike—what say you now? (and don’t say “ignore” when it is clear that all other anti-SNP media will leap on it and use it for propaganda purposes!).
37. ‘Before this thread gets taken over by people who try to ignore reality because it doesn’t suit them’
too late, too late…
40 - Kingbongo - what else did you expect me to say
Yes, I agree that the locals in England are going to be bad for us, and in Scotland we shall loose a lot of our local base. However in Wales I think Labour will have quite, how can I put this, differing results on the night. Scotland could prove very difficult indeed. We have been spoiled by 10 years of fabulous landslides and reasonably good results (locals end Euros excepted).
4 - lol, Jon L! You’re forgiven…
The poll entrails show (after weighting for whatever they now weight for):
a) Labour has more people who basically identify with the party than any other but
b) If you exclude those who are currently resolved not to vote, Labour and the Tories are level in basic sympathy but
c) Slightly more Labour than Tory voters are inclined to vote for someone else at the moment and
d) A lot fewer Labour than Tory voters are *sure* they’ll vote.
This all seeems to me quite credible. The Tories and LibDems have not (yet) changed the underlying landscape: there is no mass switch to them by Labour voters (the SNP, I gather, are doing rather better at presenting themselves as a credible alternative). But more Labour-leaning voters are cheesed off, depressed and inclined not to bother.
27% is a lousy level. But I was a candidate in 1983, when we were fighting a gale-force wind, and the feeling on doorsteps is not remotely comparable. I think we may see more anomalies than usual, though - if the problem for Labour is essentially motivation and turnout, then it’s one case where degree of local effort will be significant (in 1997 Labour candidates could have done nothing whatever and we’d still have won).
Meanwhile, we have a weird local squabble - a LibDem councillor has reported me to the police for allegedly ‘conspiring to commit a criminal act’, namely that he says I helped to plan a debate with a Tory MEP on climate change, with a showing of Gore’s film. Since the event (now postponed, and not organised by me anyway) would have been free, he says this is “treating” voters - they would have seen a free movie. The fact that it’s been shown by church groups and schools free of charge for months hasn’t impressed him. So are Labour and LibDems locally at bitter loggerheads to prompt this sort of thing? No - we’re in coalition! Sigh.
DC knows that to to sell sausages, you sell the sizzle. Why doesn’t he concentrate on the ‘ishoos’ (ie the ingredients)? He’ll have to print them at some point—its the law. But he knows enough to keep the print small. He knows that it will only be read and analysed by his opponents. DC is also aware that he has to make his product seem ’safe’.
How’s he doing? Understanding what he needs to do: good. Execution: average.
Interesting thing about this poll is the poor figure for the Tories on only on 36% with the Gov. in freefall - I would have thought Labour would be pleased to be no lower than 27%.
As Simon Hoggart says today:
“Poor David Cameron really does his best, but it all seems to go ever so slightly wrong. For example, he wanted us to show more respect and kindness to young, disadvantaged and excluded people. This appeared in the press (and in Labour party propaganda) as “hug-a-hoodie”, which is not what he said at all. As he travels the world there seem to be feral young persons on every street corner waiting to flash V-signs or point imaginary guns at him (I hesitate to suggest for one moment that any of my colleagues would manipulate the news, but it is just conceivable that some of them made quiet financial arrangements with the young people to provide these images).”
For interest, Michael Meacher now has a website for his campaign:
http://www.michaelmeacher.info/
I’m still very sceptical that he’ll get the 44 signatures, but who knows?
Nick will you help talk out the Freedom of Information (not) Bill on Friday?
43 - That’ll be the same anti-SNP media whi were willing to report the 12% lead given by the equally unreliable Scottish Opinion a couple of weeks back then? It may also coincide with a YouGov poll so people can make their own mind up about who to believe.
15 - Thankfully our vote is looking rather better than that. Only a few months ago the CR sub-sample had the Tories on 24% and the Libs on 6% so I’m not sure how useful they are.
49. I honestly don’t know if Meacher is bluffing or not. He can’t just pronounce this only to make a fool of himself later.
I do hope Clarke joins the fray. Nick - please lend a nomination to Charles. Just so that Gordon can smash him out of sight! Clarke is such a bloody fool - and I think he knows it.
51 (& 43) The anti-SNP media might well play it up but that could bring a bigger downside to Labour; disenchanted Labour voters, who might have turned out to hold back the SNP tide, then feel they don’t need to vote as Labour is doing well enough without them. So outcome is worse for Labour than it would have been.
48. Icarus - you appear to have entered the Fuhrer bunker as well.
34. Alex
Who knows? Just a load of waffle…
43. Wee Broon
mruk are not members of the British Polling Council. Nuff said.
You know, this Herald policy of employing complete numpties to do their opinion polling will backfire on them in the long term. TNS System Three were pretty poor (no weighting by past vote), but my goodness, they look like a Rolls Royce compared to the Trabant that is mruk…
That said, I still feel that it is going to be pretty tight between Labour and the SNP to be the largest party. The Tories and Lib Dems are going to face a classic squeeze crisis in the final week, as people face the real choice.
46, re candidate Palmer, 1983. I cannot understand how your campaign produced a gale force response:
•Develop a new five-year national plan to coordinate expansion and public spending with plans for individual industries and regions..
•Involve the trade unions and management in planning at every level with a new, tripartite National Planning Council.
•Link planning at all levels firmly to a radical extension of industrial democracy. New statutory rights will enable workers to draw up plans for their own enterprises and sectors of industry, which we will seek to incorporate into our strategy.
•Support these agreed development plans with new industrial powers, including discretionary price controls, financial support and access to credit; and take powers to invest in individual companies, to purchase them outright or to assume temporary control.
•Return to public ownership the public assets and rights hived off by the Tories, with compensation of no more than that received when the assets were denationalised. We will establish a significant public stake in electronics, pharmaceuticals, health equipment and building materials; and also in other important sectors, as required in the national interest.
• We will give new rights to workers to convert their firms into co-operatives.
Is there going to be an election for Labour’s Deputy Leader or is Prescott going on and on and on?
“This all seeems to me quite credible. The Tories and LibDems have not (yet) changed the underlying landscape: there is no mass switch to them by Labour voters (the SNP, I gather, are doing rather better at presenting themselves as a credible alternative). But more Labour-leaning voters are cheesed off, depressed and inclined not to bother.”
But surely the “SNP presenting themselves as a credible alternative” is directly related to the proximity of the Election there. I doubt many Labour politicians would argue that their policies are any more credible and thought through than the Tories’.
In England voters haven’t come close to considering the implications of a Tory government yet. Certainly that means that for Labour it’s still “all to play for”, but equally it means that that the Tories aren’t necessarily close to maximising their potential support. If the “not Labour” mood persists to the extent that it is at the moment, then at some point the anti-Labour support will probably begin to coalesce around the Conservatives as the only alternative, and therefore by extension the only possible credible alternative.
46. Nick, when did it become a crime to want to debate climate change?
34 As a non-Scottish Lib Dem my understanding of the extra powers the Scottish Lib Dems want the Parliament to have is:
(a) additional tax powers - at the moment they are pretty much limited to varying the basic rate of income tax (at least so far as personal taxation goes) which is a pretty blunt instrument,
(b) exclusive competence over transport, energy, marine policy and a few other areas,
(b) new category of powers to be exercised in partnership with Westminster (regulatory powers, misuse and control of drugs, asylum and immigration mentioned as among the possibilities).
But they want a new constitutional convention to consider the best way to devolve these new powers.
For anyone interested in reading more (you know you want to) the relevant chapter of their manifesto can be read at - http://www.nicolstephen.org.uk/assets/Governance-p86-p87.pdf
56. I imagine Nick Palmer thought that was pretty mild stuff in 1983, not nearly socialist enough. Perhaps he still does.
47. David. It’s not particularly what he is doing but how he is doing it. David Cameron has been tempted by the oldest pothole in the advertising world.’How to make yourself look cheap- the ‘365 day sale’! It’s only the fact that so few people are following politics that he got away with it for so long. But people are wising up. Ask the ‘man in the street’ and you’ll hear in ever greater numbers that he’s all wind.
36
There is no reason why the Labour party MUST unite under GB. With poll ratings like this (and it could get worse not better) some Labour MP’s will start to worry about their majorities and will go native, and then the whole structure will collapse, just as it did under John Major.
36. “My God - if Labour polls that low in the next GE, I’ll top myself!”
Why? You’ve been there before - you KNOW that it is not the end of the world.
Labour has to lose an election sometime. Surely, it is preferable to lose in circumstances which look more favourable to a rapid return to power. Think “Long Term”.
A majority of 6 for the Conservatives (as suggested by this poll) would be a dream for Labour.
Small majorities are always corrupting and demoralising for the ruling party. (Classic case is Labour 1964-66). Plus, it has been plausibly argued on this site that the next GE might be a good one to lose (like 1992),
You only need to get worried if the Conservatives increase their lead in the polls and maintain it. Labour really do need a ‘bounce’ when Gordon Brown takes over to shift the momentum. I’m not convinced that this will happen. But we will soon find out.
27
‘The Labour score is pretty meaningless. They are a leaderless shambles. I’ve no doubt that when they regroup under a focused new leader they will show the dwindling band of Tory switchers that politics requires more long-term than a haphazard PR exercise however occasionally slick to get the public interested.’
Keep it up Roger,stiff upper lip and all that good stuff.
First it was Iraq,then sleaze,then Lebanon and now a ‘leaderless shambles’,although everyone knows that GB will be taking over in a few weeks.
Hope youv’e got some good excuses lined up for when GB takes over and flops, maybe his nasal habits will be yet another reason why the switchers won’t return,or could it just be that New Labour is universally hated?
62 - why do we need the man in the street when we’ve got you?
Mike - you suggest that at 27% there is only one place to go but I disagree. Labour could plumb the low 20’s just as the Conservatives did at times. I remember us hitting 24% in a couple of polls and as I like to remind Mark Senior the methodology has now changed, which makes this even more possible now than then!
I am finding on the doorsteps in Reading that former Labour supporters are switching directly to us without stopping at the Lib Dems on the way. This is the first time I have seen this phenomenon on this scale.
I believe that Labour’s results in this year’s English local elections will be truly disastrous and I suspect that Nick P is kidding himself if he thinks otherwise.
In Reading Labour’s literature is a mix of glossy colour and shoddy black and white stuff. The Lib Dems is the usual black on orange/yellow paper. And from both parties it is seen pretty rarely this time. Ours by contrast is full colour and in our target wards has been going out in huge quantities. We already know that several sitting Labour Cllrs are very worried and that should help ensure that their get out the vote effort is less focussed than usual!
Roll on May 3rd/4th!!
So Labour hold in Reading then!
62. But Rik - how do your findings square with Roger’s unerring sense of the attitudes of the ‘man on the street’? Surely you are just deluding yourself.
One more point about these high “others” polls. Almost all electoral experience shows that perceived close contests produce high turnouts, and high turnouts disproportionally affect (negatively) smaller parties. I don’t think the current levels are anywhere near realistic on a 60% turnout (mainly because most people won’t have the opportunity to vote for their favoured “other” party), but on a 65-70+ turnout then it just becomes ever more unlikely.
People who would otherwise not be tempted to vote, but do so because of a close result will be voting for the Conservatives or Labour.
65 - if Labour were “universally hated” then it wouldn’t be on 27%, would it?
re 53 & 55. Three cheers for MRUK If the reports of the poll are correct and get played big then it should have an impact on the betting price. That might be the time to bet on the SNP - it was with their last poll.
Roger
The 1983 Labour “Brand” is dead. The 1997 New Labour “Brand” is starting to look terminal. Where next for the Left vote? Libdem of course! These weeks in politics can be very lomg….
Many thanks for the article Mike, though as it says on my blog Anthony wells predicts 23 short of an overall majority on these numbers and the Conservatives would need to get 3% more (39%) to get one.
That said this can’t be chearing Labour. We will have to see how CR’s new methods work and see if ICM has the same trend.
69 Yes he is just as he did at the last GE in Sutton .
68 - since only a third of the seats are up this year then they will certainly hold on this year! If it was all out they would be swept away.
69 - lol
…and “Green Tories” just doesn’t sound right as a brand, a bit like “Diet Chocolate”
62,
To be fair Roger they say wind and piss, but thats just conservative leaning voters, and they have no where else to go.
They hope desperatley he is just saying it to get elected, then once he is measuring up the curtains, he will rule as a real conservative.
76 - contrary to spin - I did not delude myself in Sutton at the GE or last year. It may suit you to mock others but my result predictions have a record of being pretty spot on! How about yours?
roger
80. Very unfair. Mark’s expertise on Worthing (a crucial swing seat as any fule know) is unrivalled.
81.
:)
78
Similar to Green Lib Dems and Jaguars?
80 - come rik! all of us back then remember you and marcus both making predictions of winning. fair enough, you were candidates and it was your job to be positive, but to claim you were anything other than overwhelmingly upbeat about your prospects isn’t true.
The biggest winner in this poll is surely the Lib Dems? 36% is disappointing for us; and 27% is meltdown for Labour but 22% by any standards mid-term is respectable for the Lib Dems.
If it hadn’t been for Kennedy’s daft boast about overtaking the Conservatives at the last election 60+ seats would have been seen as a great victory; if this poll is right and the Lib Dems hold this level of seats as the tide turns from Labour to Conservative then they really could be breaking the two party system.
77 Rik you are a ::-)-8:
84 - that has become the spin since the event I know but show me the postings! The facts are that I achieved over 40% as a share of the vote and I posted what I was finding on the doorsteps, which was borne out in the ballot box both in the GE and last year. My estimation of the result was accurate but you will never find a candidate posting on a public forum anything other than that they COULD win!
So cummon find these inaccurate postings you think I made!
76 - and Icarus -right back atcha!
Should have meant a Big Girls Blouse :-)-8
I give up with smileys!
“but my result predictions have a record of being pretty spot on!”
How we laughed!!
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Word has reached me that tomorrow sees the official publication of the tome we’ve all been waiting for, namely, the 8TH EDITION OF THE ALMANAC OF BRITISH POLITICS with now over 1000 PAGES (sorry, Mike, but size does matter) published by Routledge, and co-authored by Dr. Robert Waller, oft on this Board.
Rave Reviews include:
“John MacDonell ate my hamster” - Andrea
“It’s THE gaylordingponceybook of 2007 – SeanT
“No surprises here – it’s well within the margin of error – Mark Senior
“Pitiful. Moronic. Cretinous. – ColinW
For members of the Hersham Conservative Branch, the price is 64p plus 375 Nectar Points: others will pay slightly more, but still well within the average annual salary.
The whole green debate is in a mess. Ming giving up his Jaguar doesnt make any difference, neither does Cameron giving up his AGA (or wasting resources on a wind turbine).
What would matter is making things more efficient - eg new BMWs are 25% more fuel efficient than the models they replace - presumably following pressure from the German government. Burning oil or gas to produce electricity to run battery powered cars is a nonsense (because of the power losses).
90. Roger, pot and kettles surely?!
85. Marcus - best ironic post of the day…you only missed out ‘go back to your constituencies…’
These poll findings (with labour doing worse, lib dems better than expected) probably have something to do with the local elections. I know it is a poll for the next GE, but all politics at the moment is focused on the upcoming local elections. So I wouldn’t take opinion polls for a GE very seriously at the moment.
However this poll is only a few points different to all the other recent ones. I contiue to maintain that those who think the tories necessarily need 40%+ are wrong. Worth remembering Thatcher had a huge majority in ‘83 with what? 43%. Election geography is probably less kind to them ow but it all depends on the labour/lib dem split and it might also be said that an increasing number of tories may vote lib dem if they are the main challenger to labour.
91 John O, any chance of it coming to the West End as a smash hit musical? We couuld all vote for who we want to play the parts of Robert Mackenzie and David Butler.
Re 91, John O
96 -
What an absolutely splendid idea. How about “Ballotalot”. But our immediate goal is to lure the shy and retiring Dr Waller out of the shadows to tell us more.
67. ” Reading Labour’s literature is a mix of glossy colour and shoddy black and white stuff. The Lib Dems is the usual black on orange/yellow paper. And from both parties it is seen pretty rarely this time. Ours by contrast is full colour ”
and what about the content? Or Reading (or ‘Reading-on-Thames’ as you tories apparently want to call the town) parties just care about colours?
99 - Andrea that was an idea floated by the MP - NOT local Conservative policy!!!!
O/T - Labour are claiming in the Sotsman that there vote is begining to firm up in the West of Scotland but they have problems in Central Scotland and Fife.
I had to re-read that as it seemed inconceivable that they could be struggling in the back yard of our glorious chancellor and saviour of the Labour Party - Mr Gordon Brown.
An interesting poll!!! But not disimilar to all the others, might as well wait to see what happens next week!!!
It shows how good FPTP is for Labour though!!! They still get more seats than the tories did at the last election with 5 - 6 % less of the vote than they got on electoral calculus! I cannot imagine Labour giving up FPTP, it saved them in 1983 and will go on saving them……….
The second thing and i was meaning to mention this yesterday but forgot. Turnout in Scotland and wales you would expect to be really high in next weeks elections due to their being PR? Will this happen i doubt it!!! Somebody said yesterday that the electoral system needed changing to increase turnout but all the electoral evidence of recent years has shown turnout has not dramtically increased from the 1999 euro elections onwards. What do other people think.
99 we voters only care about the colour Andrea - I’ve had four leaflets this year, three from the tories and one LD; tory ones shiny paper nice colour photos and a bar chart, LD one badly photo copied black and white, no bar chart. Sorry, couldn’t tell you the content of any of them but the tory ones were certainly much more attractive and memorable.
103. Kingbongo, I once got a full red leaflet by the commies. It was a nice bright red, but I can barely read what they wrote in it. But maybe it was what they wanted (not to let voters read their policies)…
This poll does show the same trend as all other recent polls, a solid Tory lead. With all the methodological changes and uncertainties there is not much more you can read from this.
But if you did believe it to be accurate in levels of support then for the elections in England, considering the differential levels of party support in other parts of the union, it seems to suggests the locals will see Labour at around 22% Tories 41%, roughly in line with Sean Fear’s prediction?
Not sure about the LibDems, as its more difficult to extrapolate. But if they are at anywhere near Labour wouldn’t they lose in a big way?
Probably in Italian Andrea!
[99][100] Reading-on-Thames, eh? Well, there are so many other - and much more interesting - Readings dotted around England, that I’m not in the least surprised. But you can do so much better - why not get the name sponsored? More info here:
http://www.sopse.org.uk/ixbin/hixclient.exe?a=file&p=huntley&f=huntley.htm
Meanwhile, back on topic - that 22% for the Lib Dems interests me. I suspect there are huge regional variations, and even within regions, according to who’s in contention in which seat. National polls meet the clients’ needs, I suppose, but I reckon there’s be promotional mileage for the pollster - YouGov might find it relatively inexpensive - who produced, in addition to their regular efforts, a poll of the three types of marginal - perhaps on a quarterly basis.
fr at 56: I must decline your kind inviitation to refight the 1983 debate! Been there, got the T-shirt.
icarus at 50: I’d vote against it if I were there but I’m not - little matter of all-out local elections. I can’t see it becoming law anyway.
57: John Prescott has said he’ll step down when Tony does. I think it would cause, um, surprise if he changed his mind.
[107] Grammar went astray there. Not as young as I was, ho hum…
Thanks, Nick. You mean if he doesn’t he’ll lose the Whip (and a few other things too, maybe)
The excellent Roger claims that DC is seen to be ‘all wind’.
DC does not own hugely different policies from the present govt. There are differences, but he knows that they do not represent a sufficiently large step-change to be of interest to the floating voter. So he is sensibly concentrating on ‘feel’ rather than detail.
46. LOL LOL LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
You cannot compare chelsea in 1983, where Labour got 12% of the vote to Broxtowe now!!!!!! I don’t want to be awful to you but you are telling a Blair there!!!!
The two seats are completly different. It is like comparing a reaction to a Tory candidate in one of the Glasgow seats in 1997 and then going to Broxtowe and saying - oh! We (Tories) are doing really well!!!
105 I think you are confusing the notional level of support worked out from the local election results which I agree with Sean Fear will be around 40/41% for the Conservatives and the actual vote share which will be much lower because of the higher Others vote . In 2003 the actual Conservative vote share was 34.6% in England and 31.5 including the Scottish local election results . The BBC notional figure in 2003 was 35% .
Very funny JohnO! Infact you’ve given Rik’s post at 80 a run for his money!
I suspect that the largest tribal voting party is as it’s been since the mid 80’s ‘Anyone but the Tory Party’. That it took them till ‘97 to get their act together and coalesce around another party was unfortunate. Nonetherless when it matters it’ll reform and it now knows how to do it. The time to worry is when the Tories start touching 40% but apart from the odd statistical error I can’t see it happening.
15 sorry stuart but as you said it is not 100 but 88 too small a number to have any meaning
Re 107: Tory donor and Reading Football Club owner John Madjeski likes sponsorships and things named after him. Also I understand Reading now has one of the largest Polish Communities in the country. How about renaming Reading “Madjeskiville”?
114 - keep telling yourself that roger!!!
As I have not been posting here for sometime- can I ask what has happened to our most humerous poster- JackW ?
94. You got there first.
116 - that may be a step too far methinks!
46 NP and others - Comparison with 83 is fanciful. Like NP “I was there”. With the whole “loony left” thing on full throttle in the press, and the Murdoch Press as a whole agin Labour, it was a complete mess. It is also worth noting that a lot of support was lost by Labour during the course of the campaign. They went in on 32+, following a by-election win in Darlington
What is similar is Labour shipping support to the LD’s so giving the Tories an opening
Personal vignette of ‘83. I stood for a no-hope district council seat in 83 with a slogan that included “Make Warwick South a Nuclear Free Zone” - Ah the heady days of youthfull naivety!!
The difference is that in 83 Labour was positively bad, whereas this time it is more a leadership vacuum, so the comparison is with John Major
Re 121, John Wheatley “Personal vignette of ‘83. I stood for a no-hope district council seat in 83 with a slogan that included “Make Warwick South a Nuclear Free Zone” - Ah the heady days of youthfull naivety!!”
Asside from the pro or anti nuclear argument this was always a loony position because it would not matter a fig what the local council said those things are decided elsewhere. Still that was the politics of the 80’s!
Got the Lib Dems on the run in my ward. Most amusing! They are running aorund like headless chickens, albeit 3 weeks to late!
Tyson. Jack’s retired hurt I believe.
121. Yes very true but if i were NP i would not compare Chelsea circa 1983 in doorstep response terms to Broxtowe now. The issues, the type and number of voters etc are completly different!
124.
Roger, Jack W hurt why, who annd where.
126. Stuart (Hallo by the way!)I read on here that he had had to go to hospital again. I have no more details than that. Maybe Andrea knows?
Mark Senior so what do you think will be the notional Labour share and real share in England ( not GB)?
Nick will you help talk out the Freedom of Information (not) Bill on Friday?
by Icarus April 24th, 2007 at 8:50 am
icarus at 50: I’d vote against it if I were there but I’m not - little matter of all-out local elections. I can’t see it becoming law anyway.
by Nick Palmer MP April 24th, 2007 at 10:28 am
MP too busy on party matters to turn up at House of Commons. Disappointed Nick.
Hello Roger
Well thats a pity poor Jack.
123 BW - I think you need to get a life - your irony-meter is running low. I think we knew the Council could not do anything about it.
Actually we knew we were on to a comp[lete stuffing so did it largly for laughs
I cannot believe that MP’s are going to have another crack at the freedom of Information bill:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6586131.stm
I think it is absolutly dreadful that this is being given time. Surely somebody could of come up with a bill on fish farming documentaries or something????!!!!
128 I would guess around 23% actual share in England and the notional share around 26% . As we do not know what formula the BBC and R&T actally use it is a bit difficult to convert the first into the 2nd . In 2003 the actual Labour vote share in England was 27.0% but the BBC notional figure for Labour was 30% .
122. ’so the comparison is with John Major’
I’m sure that will cheer up Labour’s troops enormously !
:)
Re 131, John Wheatley, if you were “doing it for a laugh” good on you, but some bouroughs actually passed such resolutions!
It is a fact though. Labour has been in an increasing leadership vacuum since the failed coup in September. The difference is that this is about to change
There is an arguement that says the % is good considering, and the “under data” confirms that. The smack of firm and active leadership could make a bit of a difference.
It’s all about Brown’s ability to deliver that. We will all know soon enough
136. There is also an argument for the world being flat. It just isn’t a very good one.
BW, and you know I have gritted my teeth for 20 years in the belief that time was on my side and when Trident was redundant it would not be replaced. I thought I had lost the battle and would win the war
And what do I find - its being replaced. Never understimate the ability of the military to fight the previous war.
Re 136, John Wheatley, “There is an arguement that says the % is good considering, and the “under data” confirms that. The smack of firm and active leadership could make a bit of a difference.
It’s all about Brown’s ability to deliver that. We will all know soon enough ”
Well it is all about Brown’s ability to do exactly that but on the other hand once people get the idea that they want to vote for some one else it can be hard to turn them back. He could have had a much better chance if he was starting from a higher base.
That said, as you say we shall see.
123 C’mon Benedict, you can do it!!
135. ‘Doing it for laughs’ doesn’t quite do it justice. Rather like passing votes of no confidence in President Reagan the consequences weren’t (on Reagan) weren’t very great but it showed your heart was in the right place. Believe it or not (pre Blair Reid and Lebanon) that used to be important to Labour voters.
“It’s all about Brown’s ability to deliver that. We will all know soon enough ”
I typed this at 136 - its hardly a ringing endorsement, so I do think it is completely up for grabs
As far as nuclear-free zones & local Councils go, AFAIK all councils are against the sale & consumption of crack, speed, ectsasy etc - but that goes on in all of their areas. I’m not clear why one policy is more ludicrous than the other.
141, not with you there matey. it was grossly self indulgent on my part, buit thankfully totally invisible. Those motions were not. It was that bollox that really buggared up Labour. I commited an unpardonable offence in truth - of not taking winning elections seriously.
Statistical note I have an election record of played 12 lost 12, but that was the second best result in a less than illustrious electoral carreer
The problem for Brown though is ‘the King over the water’ i.e. Milliband. The other thing is Blair or his shadow (Tony would have done this or not done that).
Brown has obviously got it stiched up at the moment but who knows what events will bring? A well timed event could blow his campaign apart, i.e Economic problem - Massive hike in interest rates (0.5%) or a company pension scheme collapse? Hopefully it will be a still sea but the great unknown is the elephant in the room.
Thanks Roger- sorry to hear again about JackW-
Anyway, keep up the good work in exposing Cameron for what he is,
and for a last post (for now) to young BenedictW- Thatcher did a great job being loathed and despised, running down the Tories to huge poll defecits, and winning national elections- Brown has his role model.
but we shall see. Ciao
Re 140, Kingbongo, Yes, I think I probably can!
Re 144, John Wheatley, “141, not with you there matey. it was grossly self indulgent on my part, buit thankfully totally invisible. Those motions were not. It was that bollox that really buggared up Labour. I commited an unpardonable offence in truth - of not taking winning elections seriously.”
Totaly agree with you. It is one thing to have an opinion on national issues, but to pass ineffectual motions is just self indulgence that frankly scares the voters!
“141, not with you there matey. it was grossly self indulgent on my part, buit thankfully totally invisible. Those motions were not. It was that bollox that really buggared up Labour. I commited an unpardonable offence in truth - of not taking winning elections seriously.”
Looking on the bright side, at least you gave your electorate the chance to vote Labour.
146: “Anyway, keep up the good work in exposing Cameron for what he is,”
Yes, because of course Roger says it it must be true.
Roger is clearly Comical Ali from Baghdad ,proclaiming all to be rosy when the tanks are trundling up behind him! Highlight of the day reading his posts!
141. ‘it showed your heart was in the right place….that used to be important to Labour voters’
Oh luvvie, I’m almost in tears…sob..
“Oh luvvie, I’m almost in tears…sob..”
I doubt it. As they used to say “Thatcherites aren’t born- they’re mined!”
Arb opportunity on French election. Not as good as yesterday. Will Hill 2/5 Sarkozy, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power 7/2 Royal
Stake £500 on Sarkozy at 2/5. Return if wins £700
Stake £156 on Royal at 7/2. Return if wins £702
Total stake £656. Profit £34-£36. 5% return on your money over 2 weeks. Better than in the Building Society. Whether one can get these stakes on with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power is the question?
I will stick with what I got on yesterday.
150. Exactly. Pure gold, we are. Never mind Roger, at least you are giving us all a good laugh today.
151 URGENT
Further to StJohn’s advice, I have just been speaking to Hills and they are getting a lot of takers (surprise,surprise!) You will need to get on very quick. The price must go soon.
151 Stjohn - You do have to be careful with PP and Ladbrokes. It’s generally best to back with them first if you are trying to hedge. In this case however, I’d take Hill’s price first, because it will go soon and that indicates we should be able to hedge later at better margins. (Fun this, isn’t it!
)
Also, you can always hedge on Betfair at about 1.65…but where’s the fun in that! 2/5 is a great price. Eat it up!
I was speaking with a Notts Tory county coucillor on Sunday who’s also been canvassing in Broxtowe and he’s equally as bullish as Nick Palmer so it’ll be interesting to see what happens and if both of them are being equally lied to!
Does anyone on the ground up north have any feeling on what the Edinburgh sewage crisis is likely to do to Green support?
Will Hill have just lost £25K with another ’silly’ bet:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/surrey/6586637.stm
133 So the labour notional share more or less matches this latest poll but not the Tory notional share. That might suggest the Tory level in this poll is too low. Add the MoE and lo! 39/40%.
O/T Completely - and I don’t really want the inevitable that will follow so apologies, but BBC News Flash saying Peter Tatchell will fight Oxford East for the Green Party at the next GE.
154. Ptp. I’ve not played again because
a) I backed Royal with PP yesterday and expect they would knock me back if I tried again;
b) I find Ladbrokes particularly restrictive on “novelty bets” as they deem political bets to be. Often maximum £25 whatever the odds;
c) cash flow!
157 So anywhere near those nationals (27, 39,22) would give a Tory majority in a GE somewhere between 35 and 85 depending on which prediction tool you believe.
Hills down to 1.33 and arb gone.
Anyone having a punt on this?:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/humber/6585933.stm
The return is massive on the stake!
156. Lennon. Lovely story. I caught the tale end of him being interviewed on The Today programme.
250/1 does sound as if it was overgenerous. If you can reach 90 fit and well then an extra 10 years sounds achievable.
It’s untrue to say the Tories fell way behind Labour in the polls in mid term during the ’80s, before recovering to win. The only time Labour had a lead of any size was from the Summer of 1980 to the Summer of 1981 (when the SDP took off) and then briefly in the Summer of 1986.
Likewise, the only good sets of local election results for Labour in the 1980s, were 1981 and 1985. The others only looked good by comparison with the truly awful results of 1976 to 1978.
Like “there are no Conservative councillors in the main Northern cities”, the idea that Labour did really well mid-term in the 1980s is a lazy piece of journalism.
Tatchell could be a good outside bet. The Greens have a chance in Oxford East anyway and Tatchell could unify the various loonies down the Cowley Road.
His challenges are - he’s a carpetbagger and I’m not sure he’s the man for the Blackbird leys estate.
67. “Ours by contrast is full colour and in our target wards has been going out in huge quantities.”
My feeling is that most “local” people do not like slick and glossy leaflets. If the content is well laid out and the message is sound it makes no difference whether it is written on 80 gsm white/yellow paper or 130 gsm full colour glossy paper.
166 Quite right. Black and white, but looking neat, is fine.
History obliterates events.
82 was a great campaign until mid campaign came Falklands and Labour’s chances disppeared in 24 hours - literally. The mood on the doorstep changed overnight, I have never experienced anything like it.
84 was Miners strike.
The Blair years are noticable for the abscence of cataclismic events - and that included Iraq
165.”The Greens have a chance in Oxford East anyway ”
a chance to save the deposit
166. I don’t know about that. I can pick up stuff off the mat and think - This is badly printed it’s shit!!! Having never read it!
On the otherside of the coin if it is a decent piece of political craftmanship i will look at any political parties leaflets and read them. Labour, Lib Dem and the like. I must admit though the Lib Dem ones on closer inspection have an interesting representation of statics on local results when they convert them to graphs!!!
168. I would not say that 9/11? Foot and mouth?
Sometimes though leaflets are not the deciding factor - Last year the female Tory candidate gave me a BJ for my vote!
is this leaflet glossy enough?
http://by-elections.co.uk/blaenau/bgaplaid01a.jpg
172 I’m sure that did no harm to her chances.
Apparently she went down well on the doorsteps!!!
159 Know what you mean about c) , St John. I have about £5k tied up in Ante Post bets. They’re mostly looking good, but meanwhile one has to eat.
176 - Guessing Mighty Fella’s going without for a few days then…
160 True as far as it goes Witan , but the notionals in 2003 or for that matter 2004 did not forecast the Labour majority in the 2005 GE and I would say that notional figures in 2007 will not forecast the result in a 2009 GE .
just shocking how the board degenerates now
175. and was she elected?
Reluctant to challenge you but….
Greens have I think 7 Councillors in Oxford East (I think Holywell ward is in East). There are also 2 proper independents rather than closet Tories.
It will be a 4 way fight
177 He certainly is, Lennon. What’s more, he doesn’t like the way I keep looking at him.
No but it was a good result for a safe Labour seat!
Cannot wait for the knock at the door!!!
183.Cannot wait for the knock at the door!!! For this years Canvess
178 - didn’t RodCrosby do some sort of analysis of this to show that the local results did provide a good predictor of a GE. Can’t remember what he did to the numbers but it was part of his proof that the only likely result of the next GE was a hung parliament.
167 - I don’t think most people are that affected by getting a leaflet but they can be very affected by not getting one. I think that’s why leaflets are so important. A good colour leaflet is more memorable than a B&W one but whether it’s a good use of funds I don’t know. Judging by the requests for cash that arrive on an almost daily basis our campaign is costing a shedload of money.
181 - Reluctant to state the obvious but the Greens would be happy if Peter saved his deposit - their vote is always heavily squeezed in Oxford GE’s, they’ve never saved their deposit there before if my memory serves. I’m sure most people wish Peter a good campaign, hopefully it will be better than his last experience of running for Parliament.
186 Hope you are right as the Greens are my least favourite Party (even more authoritarian than the Conservatives). They started with 1 councillor in the mid 90’s and have gradually increased including places like Iffley Fields - which is less inner city than St Clements Ward. They have attracted activists from Labour.
A celebrity candidate might just do the job. There is the chance too that a resurgent Tory vote (Steve Norris held it 83-87) could lead to an Inverness style plit when as little as 26-27% wins
On the other hand…………..
181 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
I live in a Green ward, and watched the verification of the votes in ‘05. It was one of the strongest Lib Dem areas in the constituency.
The Greens’ local vote has never transferred to national elections. It’s noticeable, eg, that none of their local councillors were on the shortlist.
Tatchell is someone I would travel a fair few miles for in order to campaign AGAINST him. But it won’t be necessary. The Lib Dems will win Oxford East at the next General Election. Their work rate is prodigious, the candidate well-known and personable, and the local party well organised and hightly motivated. Tatchell will be a side show. It will be interesting to see what the IWCA make of him, though.
Re 187, john Wheatley “Hope you are right as the Greens are my least favourite Party (even more authoritarian than the Conservatives).”
But conciderably less than Labour (like John Reid et al)
188. “I live in a Green ward, and watched the verification of the votes in ‘05. It was one of the strongest Lib Dem areas in the constituency.”
Maybe you should stand in that ward next time and try to convert it to LD even in local elections!
189. “The Lib Dems will win Oxford East at the next General Election. Their work rate is prodigious”
and they managed to have a totally crap result in a local byelection against Labour last September. Maybe they were all at the conference and they forgot of the byelection though
Re 189, Augustus, “Tatchell is someone I would travel a fair few miles for in order to campaign AGAINST him.”
Why?
187 - Trust me, the Greens wont be piling into Oxford East at the next GE hoping for a surprise win. I’ll leave the authoritarian comment slide as most people wont want to read tracts on Green Party policy (though surely your reference for the phrase “more authoritarian than” should now be Labour rather than Conservative ;-)).
188 - Agree on the large and obvious level of split voting between local / national elections there. I wonder what effect this will have on the Labour / Lib Dem race there, probably not much either way. The lack of a local councillor on the shortlist probably just means they were all very happy with Peter as a candidate.
I was relying on you BW.
Reid is but a babe compared with Howard, Waddington et al, but I was really thinking of the body as a whole. Stick 100 Tories in a room with 100 Labour people - not really a contest when it comes to who would repress more. Labour people are too wooly, and it is the like of Reid that has caused the branches to wither. How can campaign for a Party with him in a top job
He is one of the most spectacularly illiberal, self-opinionated sanctimonious no-hopers ever to have put himself before the electorate. Hectoring, incapable of accommodating another’s point of view, and above all smug, smug, SMUG!
Should feel quite at home with the Greens, then.
Sorry not BW but neil
195 Brilliant, Augustus! Sean T would be proud of you.
195 -
That amount of well written vitriol makes me think you must be seanT in disguise… tell me it’s not so 
198 lennon, you know me better than that!
187
LOL, John you do realise it’s the Labour party running the country don’t you? you’re not in opposition anymore. Authoritarianism is in the DNA of socialism - it has to be or you won’t be able to lead the oppressed masses to their salvation; that’s why your leaders thought detaining people for 90 days without trial was OK.
200- tell that to the Blessed Margaret who used troops against her own citizens in strikes.
“Authoritarianism is in the DNA of socialism”… When that’s a load of rubbish.
Re 194, John Wheatley, I let that one pass
Re 195, Augustus, I hear he speaks highly of you
In what way is he illiberal?
Re 201, and 202, Never been to a show of hands at a union rally then? I haven’t either, but know some who have and there was frequently a air of menace to those who may have wanted to vote the “wrong way”.
200?
201. The miners strike was a politically inspired soviet finianced attempted coup. It was not so much using troops against her own citizens as using troops against a fifth coloumn who could not bring socialism to this country theough the Ballot box but through civil disabiedience, intimadation, roiting and soviet finance.
This is the reason why Labour were not trusted in the 80’s as they had become the British branch of the Communist party.
202 no it’s not. But please feel free to believe that you know better, after all that’s what socialists do - know better than any and every one else because they are good people and those that disagree are bad people.
201 ?? The army driving 1950’s fire engines? no, Blair did that too. If it’s a bizarre reference to the role of the police during the miner’s strike then you are very young and naiive. Either way, you’ve got to move on - it may surprise you to know that Mrs T hasn’t been in power for 17 years; you’re suffering from ‘permanent opposition’ syndrome - you’ve been in charge for 10 years and it is you who are introducing a mass of legislation to curtail individual liberty.
205 I was addressing John’s point that the Greens were ‘even more authoriarian than the tories’
You’ve got to move on II
I remember Harold Wilson’s “13 wasted years” slogan. Brilliantly successful until, one day, it wasn’t. Blunkett on The Daily Politics today blaming Mrs T for the low standards of today’s school leavers.
206. I wonder if the true extent of Soviet influence over the Labour movement and its front organisations like CND in the 1970s and 1980s will ever be revealed. It’s surprising how easy a time Labour were given about this even back in the 1980s. Rather similar to how they got away entirely with their attempts to sabotage the war effort in 1939-1940.
O/T trying to be non-political about this but read this on BBCi and wondered how Patricia Hewitt and the MoH/NHS can defend themselves - what are they doing?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/north_yorkshire/6586785.stm
209. That’s the problem Labour have they don’t believe in anything! No ideology! It is amasing they have been in power 10 years really!!!
That is why i put that posting up asking what Labour’s ideology is these days as Blair was saying the Tories did not have any!!!
Nobody anwsered because they (Labour)don’t actually know! The only thing the Labour party stand for is a continuition of power and they hate tories. That’s it - they are friegntened collectively of embarking on anything else.
Where as the democrats in the US and some left of centre parties in europe still have some left-wing ideological positions Labour have none!
That is why it cracks me up and i think it is very funny, when Labour go on and on about the tories.
67 - Rik had my first election leaflet in Abbey ward yesterday from the wonderfully named Roman party who’s main policy is to send all prisoners to Russia (if Putin doesn’t mind) and force them to do hard labour. Still at least they can be bothered unlike the main parties.
173 looks like the first attempt at a St Pepper album cover, and so says it all.
I had a lovely gatefold Labour Leaflet in full technicolour yesterday (complete with a bit to rip off and stick in the window.).
Took a wholly dispiriting drive around Uplands, Brynmill, Sketty etc in Swansea West yesterday PM. Total apathy - almost NO posters save for a few Lab and LD ones. This is supposed to be the Welsh GE for pete’s sake!
207 The Tories when they get power are at least as Authoritarian as socialists. They never practice what they - sometimes - preach. Was the introduction of the poll tax in Scotland and act of democratic descision making. They still care whether I marry or not the petes sake.
For many people, socialism and the Labour party at its truest is the antithesis of Authoritarianism. If it wasn’t for Labour, we’ll still be at the mercy of - at best - the old liberal patricians or worse self serving Tory vested interests.
The only foolproof way to avoid beign Authoritarianism is to avoid power. And many people prefer that.
215 Who is this pete? I didn’t see your post, but we clearly both agree he deserves better.
210. Well that’s because Labour are Labour and there supporters blindly follow! They went from one extreme being infiltrated by communists in the 80’s to being Bushed poodle in the new millinuim.
The problem the tories have is they are terrible at opposition - historically and presently. They have not got a clue! The only firebrands you get on the right tend to be Economic Tory boys - who measure everything in taxes and ‘real terms’ whereas a socialist firebrand or even a Labour firebrand in this day of non- socialism can talk about people and communities - lives blighted all that sort of shit! (I say that sort of shit because, when they are in power they never really do anything dramatic about it, they tinker round the edges at best).
The left have nuted the immigration debate by saying it is racisist to mention it. But you could equally say how many lives are blighted by the impact of immigration. Social pressure on housing, hospitals and the like and yes even employment!!!
It is true to say there are some lazy bastards around, who will never work. But some people myself included want to work but find potential employers too picky.
Labour are very easily taken on with most issues, the NHS for instance: you have to wait for ages, then you go into hospital and whilst the staff are tremendous the building is falling apart with filth and germs everywhere. I had a minor surgical procedure done the other week and the Consultant said “Put your hand on this wrapping (He took some bandages out of it) - it has been steralised whereas everything else is not”. The floor was filthy and one nurse even had an open bag of crisps and a newspaper bottle of drink open!!! Bloody hell - nevermind MRSA - i’ll grow another f*cking hand!!!!
218 The Tories privatised Hospital cleaning and it’s been done of the cheap since. Yes, Labour should have revered that madness.
revered = reversed !
Jonathan You were right in the first place with ‘revered’. That is what New Labour did, follow the lady without understanding or skills.
215: Saw my first poster on Sunday,a solitary yellow diamond. Then saw about 10 tory posters go up overnight today, has anyone seen them? They are now a fetching blue/green combination where the blue merges into the green, and it just says conservatives in a cuddly font. No hand brandishing a flame in sight.
Posters of all colours have definitely declined in recent years. the first ever election I remember had thousands of them. My schoolboy straw poll of posters suggested a landslide for George Cowcher (LIb dems or whatever they were called in 1987) but he lost by 21,000+ to Alan ‘turncoat Judas’ Howarth….
219. Why have they not done this? I don’t think it would do much good though as it is likely to be the same cleaners anyway!
Disappointed that Tatchell will stand in what should be an obvious LD gain next time - it almost looks like a spoiler more than anything else. I doubt the Greens will throw any resources at it, since they will be going for Brighton. But if anything, the Tory vote should be squeezable to more than make up for a small amount of leakage to the Greens.
O/T Ian Jones - Marathon Run
Just had an email from Ian. He is fine and completed the course in
223 You would probably buy better cleaning products and hire people not on short temp contracts so they have vested intrest in the quality of their job.
221 There is clearly a fine line (s) between success and failure in politics! Genius. I must learn to type one day.
O/T Ian Jones - Marathon Run
Just had an email from Ian. He is fine and completed the course in less than four hours. He did remark however on the heat and number of runners who needed treatment.
Well done Ian! Cheque for Hospice on its way.
224. et al. Tatchell has done quite a lot in recent years to win my respect, a respect I never used to have for him - principally for his campaigns against homophobic violence in Africa, the Caribbean and Islamic countries. This is an issue that too many on the liberal/left keep quite about.
One of Welsh Labour’s manifesto committments: Bring cleaners back ‘in-house’ to the NHS. Surely a vote winneR?
224 The Green have plenty of human resources in Oxford. Carolyn Lucas lives locally and will round up the troops. They will gets lots of student numbers if they want them. Tatchell just might be their kind guy
I have reserved comment on Tatchell myself. Agustus got it pretty well right, and this view does not change even when he is occaisionally on the side of the angels
In house, lazy, unionised, bolshy….
Privatised, demoralized, corner cutting, uncaring…
In house, bolshy, wasteful…
Privatized…..
This one could run and run.
re 226, Jonathan, the key issue in the NHS cleaning contracts was never who was responsible for providing the service, it was “can any one be bothered to make sure the job is done”.
I cleaned hospitals in that period and it did not make one jot of difference. The terminaly lazy still were and those who took pride in their work still did.
Re 227, Peter, many thanks for the update and well done Ian!
Re 231, Fr, that is the problem.
I always thought it true about Greens being authoritarian and therefore strange bedfellows for Liberals/Lib Dems. And then I see that something called the ‘Green Liberals’ gained 10 seats in Zurich in their recent local elections and now plan on becoming a national party in advance of the Swiss GE in October! So clearly they have more in common than I thought, at least in Switzerland. Gap in the market for the UK?
http://www.wahlen.ch/nt/index.php
New Thread - IG Index cancel BrandIndex
(Clearly pb was too good for them)
It looks as BNP has now become a master of spin too:
http://www.bnp.org.uk/reg_showarticle.php?contentID=2463
re 211. This is a very complicated story involving drug companies not willing to license one of their products which would be a cheaper alternative. These drugs are getting on for £1,000 a treatment and treatment is needed every few months. PCT’s money is limited. You’ll notice though that elderly pensioners don’t have quite the same media impact as middle aged women with breast cancer. I can’t see Patsy issuing a diktat to the PCT telling them that they must provide this drug like she did with trastuzumab (Herceptin)
231 exactly - all the evidence shows there is no appreciable difference between in-house and contracted cleaning. I think it should be in-house as it’s a core function and should be treated much more seriously than it is; as with many things it is bad managers not a useless workforce that is the problem.
216. What a confused and confusing post.
Re 237, Yes Andrea, they have made it look like that lot support the BNp whereas the reality is they probably don’t.
240 What a devestating critique. In very simple terms for you…
Rather unsurprisingly right-wingers on pb.com have a negative view of Labour & socialism, which isn’t necessarily true. Occasionally they try to bash us with the Authoritian stick. Doesn’t make them right.
In the meantime, many people on the left see the Tories and right wingers in general as more authoritarian than Labour and their record in govt can be used to support that opinion.
242. As is increasingly typical of younger New Labour supporters, you are struggling to articulate what you believe in, and have even more difficulty discerning what your party believes in.
This is understandable, as the current New Labour administration has certainly drifted a very long way…from the idealistic rhetoric of 1997 to the scaremongering authoritarian populism of today.
The only struggle going on here is your struggle with reality.
However, thank-you for your concern about how well I articulate my beliefs, but you need not worry. If you take the time to trouble yourself with the realities of the twenty-first century - you will understand a little more. If it’s too hard, you can always go back to your tomb.
No flowers.
165 - “The Greens have a chance in Oxford East anyway ”
you accidentally missed the words ’snowball in hell’s’
156, 163 - I would have thought 25 grand was quite a low price for all the advertising they have got out of it
Re 242, Jonathan, “In the meantime, many people on the left see the Tories and right wingers in general as more authoritarian than Labour and their record in govt can be used to support that opinion.”
And 90 day detention without trial and control orders can’t? Sheesh!
237/241 BNP website. What does Benedict trhink of the BNP “big push in Crawley and Horsham”
230 - ‘The Green have plenty of human resources in Oxford. Carolyn Lucas lives locally and will round up the troops.’
But this was equally the case before the last election when they ended up losing their deposit and with the wards with the biggest local Green votes voting most strongly for the Lib Dems.
And now the Lib Dems are only 2% behind when they were previously 26% behind. Imagine the scale of the advanced bar chart technology that will be unleashed next time;-)
244 I think there is only one confused poster on this point. It’s always a struggle for young people who wish to oppose ‘the system’ but who can’t accept that they actually are ‘the system’.
Muddled thinking is not a monopoly of the left but because you understand your belief system to be morally good it is unnerving for you to accept it’s authoritarian foundations.
Now if you were an anarchist you wouldn’t have that problem but you’re not - you have chosen to accept a philosophy based on state management and collective control. Milliband’s ‘I can’ would be attractive if he were a Liberal but he’s not - he thinks 45% state control of the economy is a good thing; he knows how to spend money better than you or me. Those on the left can’t help it - you know best and if people would just do as they were told everything would be fine.
250. A classic example of Labour authoritarianism from just after the war was Stafford Cripps saying (in the HoC) ‘if we cannot get nationalisation of steel by legal means we must resort to violent methods’
Baxter is ‘garbage in - garbage out’.
There will be more variation due to personal/constituency effects in the next general election than in any to date.
249.”And now the Lib Dems are only 2% behind when they were previously 26% behind. Imagine the scale of the advanced bar chart technology that will be unleashed next time;-) ”
It wouldn’t be a factor: you’re able to produce barcharts with LDs second 2% behind even if they’re forth 26% behind
The Tatchell phenomenon is Oxford East will be a non-event. The Greens built up a strong power base in Oxford West too, but still got swept away by Evan Harris in the GE in 1997. Their candidate in 1997 was the personable, locally very well known, sometime Green party “principal speaker” and now sadly deceased Mike Woodin.
Mavericks like Tatchell do not go down well in Oxford. The Labour candidate in 1992 in Oxford West was (Monsignor) Bruce Kent - and he bombed.
Oxford East is much more working class that Oxford West, and also much more ethnic. I can’t see Tatchell being what they are after.
I have a certain amount of time for Tatchell, but I doubt he will campaign too hard. I’d quite like to see him in the European parliament though.
Steve Goddard is very well known in Oxford, and he should win.
PS: Can any one tell me if the Greens still want to introduce a uniform national wage, and a Chinese style one-child policy? And are any leading Green politicians not vegetarian?
Why are people talking about Tatchell and Oxford East.
253. If you were a party strategist for each of the three where would you like to pick up seats in May for where you might win in 2009/2010 as opposed to piling them where you never will or indeed always will.
251 - the Stafford Cripps quote - you either invented that, or you’ve been misled. Absolute, laughable nonsense. Why would a government with a Parliamentary majority need to adopt “violent” as opposed to legal methods anyway?
250 - that’s pretty infantile too. You sound like an A-Level student in the thrall of a right wing teacher. Politics isn’t that simple, whether it be left or right.
91, John O and 96, Augustus Carp: thanks very much (I think) for the publicity!
The Almanac was indeed published today, covering all the (newly drawn) seats with witty but irreverent MP profiles from my co-author (accomplice?!)Byron Criddle.
Copies of this 8th edition do not yet quite seem to have reached (the) Amazon, but at 450,000 words and 1,081 pages eventually some forests may be demolished by the expectant readers of a surprised but grateful world …
Thanks again, Robert.
254 - ‘Bruce Kent - and he bombed’
Very droll
257 perhaps it’s because I am a teacher? you write like a pompous know it all full of hail fellow well met false bonhomie discussing the merits of various repulsive beers and pontificating on the state of the lesser beings who don’t view the world in its proper light.
“Those on the left can’t help it - you know best and if people would just do as they were told everything would be fine.”
Did the Tories devolve any powers to the nations 1979-1997? Didn’t they abolish democratically GLC or did I imagine it? Was Maggie really objective when it came to decision making or did she know best?
The right complain about Labour Authoritarianism when they are in opposition, but when they get power they suddenly forget their worries and go further. The right just can’t handle another party in power and cry foul.
10. A larger population means greater job competition & lower pay, fewer houses & higher house prices.
Er, no… as Harpal Brar said “each immigrant has one mouth but two hands”.
91 Eighth edition? Where is the 7th? I’ve got the 5th and 6th. I must have missed the 7th.
It is amusing to read the descriptions in the 5th edition of some of the constituencies which were won by Labour in 1997 with small majorities:
e.g. Sittingbourne & Sheppey
“could be described as a marginal only in the opposition’s wildest dreams”
e.g. Harwich
“will remain safely Conservative in all foreseeable circumstances”
e.g. Thanet South
“No-one could seriously conceive of Labour actually winning a Thanet seat, and South will remain safe for its notabel MP, Jonathan Aitken”
It’s wishful thinking to suggest that Tatchell will be a non-event in Oxford East. He won’t win, but he will get a not insignificant chunk of the middle-class radical vote in East Oxford, and there’s plenty of that. He could well make the difference as to whether Labour keep the seat or not.
Steve Goddard might be well-known amongst Oxford LibDems, but his recognition amongst the general public is virtually zero.
Re 254 – When have the Greens have ever wanted a uniform national wage or a Chinese style one-child policy? Certainly not now - wishful thinking on your part there I think. And why would the Greens bother compiling a list on whether their politicans are vegetarian? Do the LDs??