LDs surge as Labour drops below 2000 fuel protest levels
April 25th, 2006
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ICM has Lib Dems up three - Labour down three
The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian this morning records a big increase in Lib Dem support at the expense of Labour. The shares are compared with the last ICM poll three weeks ago CON 34%(-1): LAB 32%(-3): LD 24%(+3).
This is a huge boost for the Lib Dems ahead of the local elections less than two weeks away and is the biggest ICM share for the party for two years.
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The last time Labour was at the 32% with ICM’s monthly Guardian poll was three days before the party’s defeat in the 1987 General Election. Today’s share for the party is two points lower than the pollster recorded during the low point for the party in modern times - the aftermath of the fuel protests in September 2000.
The other low, though not in the ICM monthly Guardian poll, was, as Anthony Wells of UK PollingReport points out in a News of the World survey just after the Brent East by-election in 2003 when Labour was recorded at 31%.
The BNP are at 2% in sharp contrast to the 7% figure recorded by YouGov last week.
This is the first real polling evidence that Labour is suffering because of the ongoing rows over “cash for peerages” and the NHS cuts.
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Even though Labour’s drop means that the Tories are back in the lead again with ICM for the first time since February Cameron’s team must be disappointed that it is the Lib Dems and not them who are benefiting from Labour’s troubles.
Today’s poll will be particularly pleasing for the Lib Dems who had not seen any progress after going through the trauma of the ousting of Charles Kennedy and the leadership race. It will also be a good answer to those in the party who had started raising questions about the leadership of Ming Campbell.
Over the years ICM has established itself as the UK’s leading telephone pollster and has pioneered the technique of weighting its samples by the recalled past vote of those taking part in its surveys. In recent surveys is has been weighting at the levels of CON 32.2%: LAB 38.8%: LD 21.3%. Populus, by contrast, has been weighting at CON 31.1: LAB 40.3: LD 21.3. The difference between these figures and the actual result is to compensate for “misremembering”.
Meanwhile people keep asking me whether they can bet on next week’s local elections. As far as I can see there are no markets open yet. If you are a Betfair customer please email them asking that a market be established.
Mike Smithson
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its a shame from a labour point of view that we got 32%. I have no doubt this is what will come out of this poll, and no doubt that the press will have a good time in ripping us apart.
If we had managed to get say 35% i think pressure would have been building up on mr cameron as his poll ratings are well disasterous in my opinion. Think of all the negative stories labour is taking at the mo and all the positivity he has got and he is a full 1% out the box.. And there have been a few polls like this now.
If the tories crash and burn in moray and do averagly at the locals he could find himself under a fair bit of pressure.
Good for the lib dems and especially ming.
The only good news for labour, as opposed to the tories doing poorly, is demand management for the locals. But this is of no real compensation.
Mike
What were the figures for Labour and the LD in the 1987 ICM poll
Re 2 In the June 1987 poll it was CON 45 LAB 32 LIB/SDP Alliance 21
Mike Smithson
Hmmm - just as I didn’t beleive the 13% polls in January - I’m a bit sceptical about this one too.
Where I think it has some resonance however is on the Labour share - from my knowledge of the on the ground campaign they are in for a doing next week (deservedly). When the Prime Ministers sends letters to a national newspaper with the style and values of a pub drunk - ‘let’s harrass the potential criminals’ - you know they are clutching at straws. #
Blair will end up like Thatcher (only 20 years younger) bewildered and wondering where it went wrong. Well - if you’d perhaps said ‘no’ to the Daily mail in 1998 you wouldn’t be quite so barking now…
Dan - “Just as I didn’t beleive the 13% polls in January - I’m a bit sceptical about this one too. Where I think it has some resonance however is on the Labour share - from my knowledge of the on the ground campaign they are in for a doing next week (deservedly).”
But if the Labour share of the vote goes down, as most believe it must, and should, and will, the question is where does it go to? It may just stay at home…. but if not, can you really see it falling into the lap of Cameleon´s Conservatives? Some of it may go BNP, of course, but I see no reason why a large proportion of former Labour voters should not go Lib Dem this time.
Clearly an excellent result for the Lib Dems and for Campbell in particular, who’s poor ratings up to now must have been causing some disquiet within the party.
Labour must certainly be alarmed at having sunk to their lowest level in 17 years, and coming less than a fortnight in advance of the local elections, the timing could scarcely have been worse for them. My sense is increasingly that they are set for a truly appalling result on the 4th of May.
For the Conservatives there is both comfort and disappointment to be drawn from these figures. Clearly we would rather be polling several points higher than this in view of the difficulties Labour are experiencing and it is moderately worrying that the government’s lost support seems to be migrating directly to the Lib Dems. However, it is psychologically important to have recovered the lead, and as others have frequently pointed out, a strong Lib Dem vote would be helpful to the Tories in many areas at general election time.
It will be very interesting to see if this level of Lib Dem support holds, or if this is an outlying figure for them - both YouGov and ICM can’t be right.
6 - Correction: Lowest level in 19 years rather. Teach me to be pontificating on here at half past three in the morning!
I agree with you entirely, Alastair. And one must respect the facts, above all, interpretation being, of course quite another matter. Perhaps this is a very good hour to post……
I personally think that this slightly overstates the LDs and understates C and L.
But the underlying thing I am sensing is “anybody but Labour”. The public wanted to throw Labour out in 2005 but didn’t feel able to vote Tory.
I genuinely believe Cameron has changed all that.
I think the next election will be brutal for Labour. The sole factor that could make a difference is a new leader bounce, but if the Tories make the message stick that Brown messed up the NHS, then as these hospitals close, I don’t know if even that will work.
AH Matlock:
“Clearly we would rather be polling several points higher than this in view of the difficulties Labour are experiencing and it is moderately worrying that the government’s lost support seems to be migrating directly to the Lib Dems. However, it is psychologically important to have recovered the lead, and as others have frequently pointed out, a strong Lib Dem vote would be helpful to the Tories in many areas at general election time.”
I think that Tory support is in truth around 36-37% and you’ll see that after the actual locals results May 5th.
MP for Blaunau Gwent has died.
Will Moray the Moray result - or rather who comes second have any effect on things? A poor result for the Tories would surely start to undermine Cameron
Hear the independent labour MP Peter Law has died.
Commentator 10. I think in truth Tory support is around 33-35% - it has been for a month now - so don’t kid yourself.
Cameron has changed his image (for good or bad) - but say the word tory to many people and they still are put off.
11 - ALEX
Beat me to it… surly Labour should retake the seat with relative ease?
Peter Law was reelected as MP for Blaenau Gent in 2005 with 58.2% as an independant after falling out with Labour. In 2001 this was the safest seat for Labour in Wales with Mr Law taking 72% of the vote and with a majority of 19,313. There will be two byelections (I expect on the same day) as Mr Law was also the local Welsh Assembly member. Any hope for the oppostion parties winning the seat they must climb an electoral Everest. If Labour win the seat back it will give them a boost in both the Assembly as well as at Westminster as their majority will rise.
Labour has changed its local selection procedure for BG to avoid a repeat too. Expect a local candidate.
Dan @ 4 “bewildered and wondering where it went wrong” - winning three general elections in a row (the only Labour leader to do so) isn’t that wrong. I suspect he’ll be quite philosophical and know deep down that Iraq was the begining of the end.
12 - the Moray result would, obviously, have most impact on the 2007 Holyrood elections as it will confirm the relative strengths/weaknesses of the parties and, in many cases, their role as potential coalition partners.
I don’t think the result will have any real effect at a UK level beyond Saturday morning. To paraphrase one contributor to the site a while ago, “Where is Moray?”
Last time the Lib Dems were in third place on 4.29%. Is Rennard on his way to North Wales already? PC were on 2.39 with the Tories on 2.31.
Can Cameron help his party save the deposit - which looks a mountain to climb?
Mike Smithson
The Conservatives are likely to benefit substantially in the local elections from the fall in The Labour vote elections particularly in London.Compared to 2002 thereia drop of 13% in labour support and and a rise of 5% in Con support a massive (% swing.
Th eswing in London to the Lib dems is identical but they are closer to Labour in less London seats.
The ICM poll suggests over 250 Labour losses in London,as wella losses in Disatricts ,Unitary and metro with toatl Labour losses near 500.
16 - Who said this following the death of Rachel Squire?
‘discussing the by-election 4 minutes after a post announcing her death! good work!’
Presumably you think 34 minutes is more seemly? Or is it just because the deceased isn’t a Labour MP?
Sorry to hear Peter Law’s news
16. The candidate for the Welsh Assembly has already been selected a couple of months ago (they chose the council leader)
Some even more compelling evidence by the inestimable Chrisco that Luntz is advising Cameron: http://www.liberalreview.com/blogs/apollo/vote_blue_go_green_is_luntz_on_c
This stuff is dynamite.
Tabman 23 - nice piece. But the real target should not be Luntz but Newsnight.
Mike Smithson
23 - I think ‘compelling evidence’ is pushing it.
Incidentally what is Liberal Reviews problem with DC being called ‘Dave’? Presumably you are equally dissaproving of ‘Ming’ and ‘Nick’.
25 - No problem at all Maxie
24 - I agree. Spinning him as some sort of impartial pollster is clearly wrong.
25 - Max
if you’d suddenly started posting as ‘Max’ after years of ‘Maximillian’ ….
Tabman 23 - hardly ‘dynamite’ - probably more of a damp squib - unless the charge is that the Tories have worked out how to use the internet. As Chrisco demonstrates the Luntz advice is in the public domain and it wouldn’t be the first time someone had done a cut n’paste job from the internet! Dodgy dossier - anyone?
Newsnight on the other hand should be having a chat with Luntz
24 -it’s that left-wing BBC bias kicking in agian …
What does this poll indicate if anything is going in areas where the contest is between the Lib dems and conservatives - these are often traditionally Tory areas - are the Tories coming back - the hostility to conservatives is simply not there on the door step
I personally think that the support for the Lib dems in the poll if it is accurate is likely to be rising fastest in labour areas and they are picking up the anti labour vote . In the two way lib dem - conservative areas the labour swithchers are not significant
My evidence is that the Lib Dem vote is soft and conservatives are coming back - many waiverers who voted Lib Dem last time - but this is just one ward in one borough and the Lib Dems are the incumbent
26 - I do get called that but only by girls (and now you Mark)! Max OTOH isn’t an abbrieviation of anything.
I don’t know what the rural situation is, but in my patch of a big city, there is a strong anti-Labour vote and no enthusiasm for Cameron’s Tories. As I put on a previous post, middle class voters think Cameron is empty, while the working class ones think he’s an out-of-touch toff.
27 - How many pollsters haven’t worked or support one party or other? It would be just about impossible to find a trully impartial pollster (despite what some of them may claim). Having said that I don’t really rate Luntz’s work, seems more of an art than a science.
30 - I agree a lot of the dislike has gone. I was canvassing yesterday and only one individual was in anyway rude. He said he didn’t approve of this ‘carry on’!
Well, all I have ever claimed to have is a gut feeling. I just want credit when the true voting figures come in on May 6th!
31 Ah but 1 or 2 close friends and my lover call me Markie . surely though Max is short for Maximilian . Seriously though , I just can’t imagine DC being called Dave at Eton . Young Cameron more like - LOL
Sad to hear about Peter Law. He was a man who took on the Labour establishment - and won, and was pretty brave to do it when he was clearly an ill man.
Who actually moves the writ to call the by-election for an independent MP?
36 - Another Independant? Might be appropriate for the good Doctor to do it…
First post from deepest darkest Highlands !!
Polls of polls. Last 5, excluding BPIX, rounded to nearest half point :
Lab 35% .. Con 34.5% .. Lib Dem 20% .. Others 10.5%.
19. “Is Rennard on his way to North Wales already?” Quite possibly. Blaenau Gwent is in South Wales.
Re; Peter Law…..how many guesses do we need to know what happened to the defeated official Labour Party Candidate? Touching obit on BEEB:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/4900286.stm
31. “I do get called that but only by girls ”
is Maxie a girl name too, right?
From what I can tell, the last Independent by-election was Merthyr Tydfil in 1972.
Merthyr Tydfil (Election 1970)
Ind Lab 52% Lab 29% Con 10% Plaid 10%
Merthyr Tydfil (By-election 1972)
Lab 49% (+20%) Plaid 37% (+27%) Con 7% (-3%) Comm 5% (+5%) Lib 2% (+2%)
Labour gain from Independent Labour
Swing: 3.5% from Lab to Plaid
*Through gritted teeth* This is a good poll for the Lib Dems; and suggests to me that they might do much better than expected next Thursday.
I suspect that this is because they are picking up the disaffected Labour vote, especially in areas where they challenge a Labour incumbent.
And, lets face it, Lib Dems always campaign well at local level.
Let’s see what the real poll reveals next Thursday.
35. Nice to see such chippy instincts are alive and well within the Lib Dems.
Max is also Maxwell- a good Borders name- I think Maximillian is a little continental for the douce Edinbourgoisie
43. I have a suspicion next week’s results may see an intensification of the divergent trends we saw at the GE; Labour losing support everywhere to the best placed challenger, the Tories and Lib Dems fighting their own two-party battle in other areas with the Tories the net gainers but with quite a few surprise results. Lib-Dem/Tory byelection contests since December have seen a swing to the Tories of around 4%, but both parties have registered some very impressive individual results.
Don’t grit them too hard. I think everyone even the Labour posters agrees that Tony is going to get a hiding on 4th May… and an even bigger one if he tries to hang on next May… and if he is still there in 2008 as some of our posters think then Labour will be a thrid place in terms of councillors.
40. Nice tributes by his agent (Dai Davies), by Llew Smith (former MP for Blaenau Gwent), by Plaid Cymru’s Wyn Jones and tory’s Nick Bourne.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/news/story/0,,1760864,00.html
Re election expenses - has any one seen how much was spent by the parties on polsters?
15 - Peter Law wasn’t reelected as MP for Blaenau Gwent in 2005. Until 2005 the MP for Blaenau Gwent was Llew Smith, who got 72% of the votes in 2001. Since 2003 Peter Law was the Assembly Member for Blaenau Gwent, a position he retained until his death despite being elected MP. So there will actually be two by-elections, one for the National Assembly, one for the Parliament.
Despite the sad death of Law, this is good news for Labour, which should be able to gain a seat both in the Parliament and the National Assembly despite the current bad poll ratings.
46 - I think you are probably right a re run of the election - Lib Dems will do well but mainly at the expense of labour but will give up some ground to Tories - particularly where they are the running the coucil . How big the trend will be is difficult to tell
Perhaps if DC wants to do well in Wales he will get everyone to call him Dai to overcome his Scottish surname
Does Peter Law’s death now mean Forward Wales consists of only one grumpy old man, the excellent Ron Davies?
53. Law was sitting as Independent, not as Forward Wales.
The Forward Wales AM is John Marek.
Btw, it has not been a good year for MPs: already 4 deaths since last may’s GE.
Guido’s blog has an excellent picture of a UKIP ’supporter’ today
Offering ’support’ of an unusual kind…
I think the pressure on TB after May 4th is going to be immense if Labour loses very heavily. You sort of get the feeling that it’s going to be Labour’s worse kicking since Thatcher was in her pomp. Poor results in London I guess the party will just about live with, but if it’s countrywide then there could be some pressure from very senior Labour figures to tie the PM down on a departure date for later this year/early next year. Seasoned watchers may want to keep an eye on Jack Straw, a Labour man through and through and extremely shrewd tactically. He could be the ‘man in a grey suit’ for Blair. Just a hunch.
54 - 4 deaths in a year out of 646 isn’t as many as you’d expect. If you assume UK life expectancy of 78 years, and account for not being an MP before 18, Parliamentary life expectancy would be 60years. Assume an even distribution across the 18-78 years (this is the clear fallacy in my arguement…) and you would expect 1.6% (1/60) of MP’s to die in any given year, which with 646 MP’s would be an expected 10 MP’s in any given year.
Fred@55. Hmmm, not much in the way of “support” going on there methinks…
Andrea@54. Yes, there seem (subjectively) to have been more than normal. A gruesome statistic perhaps, but any idea what the numbers of deaths have been for past parliaments?
58. Lennon, there were 4 deaths in whole 2001-2005 term, not 4 in a year. 10 deaths in the 1997-2001 parliament.
59. 18 deaths in 1992-1997 parliament. Even more the 1987-1992 parliament.
So it was the 2001-2005 term that had a much better situation than the others, not this one being worse.
19. If Rennard goes to North Wales, he will be very lost.
Blaenau Gwent has seen a string of spectacular local by-election wins over the past few years, one in (or more accurately on the edge of) each of the three major towns (Tredegar, Abertillery and Ebbw Vale) for the Lib Dems, which they have been unable to sustain at all-up Council elections.
andrea - it’s because in 1997 lots of old tory duffers were beaten by younger Labour MPs. also generally both Tory and Labour MPs are getting younger (and retiring earlier in the case of Labour in particular).
Not quite sure about Jack Straw being shrewd… he seemed to be taken in by all that cobblers about WMD without too much resistance.
62. Get the bar charts out…
Parliamentary by-elections (by term) 1945 - 2005
(All figures exclude Northern Ireland)
1945 - 1950: 47
1950 - 1951: 14
1951 - 1955: 44
1955 - 1959: 49
1959 - 1964: 61
1964 - 1966: 13
1966 - 1970: 37
1970 - Feb 1974: 30
Feb 1974 - Oct 1974: 1
Oct 1974 - 1979: 30
1979 - 1983: 17
1983 - 1987: 16
1987 - 1992: 23
1992 - 1997: 17
1997 - 2001: 16
2001 - 2005: 6
2005 - 2009/10: 4 (after less than a year)
Average number of by-elections in a term: 26
63. eric bally. and LDs are getting even younger.
The average age is 52 for Lab, 49 for Con and 46 for LDs according to the Parliament Research Paper about 2005 GE (I assume they got the figures right…even if I think they got the oldest LD MP wrong)*
* they had Phil Willis down as the oldest Libdem in the House. But he was born in November 1941, while Ming was born in May 1941. So I think Ming is the oldest.
66. thanks. yes, but not all byelections are caused by deaths. Mandy is alive and kicking!
And the 1992-1997 had 2 MPs who died in January 1997 and no byelection was called.
Actually, if you use my formula (adjusting YouGov, ICM, MORI & Populus for the errors they made last time) Labour are on 33.93% Tories on 33.09 and Lib Dems on 20.38% translating into a Labour majority of 38 (unadjusted figures are Labour 35.5 Tories 33.75 and Lib Dems 20.25). Yes, the ICM is a bad poll for Labour (and good for the Lib Dems) but it is still ahead in the MORI, Populus and You Gov polls. My gut feeling is that the latter three are more accurate.
O/T but the Financial Times had a rather more detailed story about the impact of Eastern European workers than the BBC story linked to by Red Flag yesterday. While ITEM did indeed conclude that the Eastern European workers had kept wages, and inflationary pressure down, it also concluded that about one third of the rise in unemployment over the past year was attributable to their presence. It’s strange that the BBC didn’t mention that bit of the report.
69. A gut feeling that happens to match your partisan instincts. How convenient. How meaningless.
69. Mori…accurate…not 2 words I would use in the same sentence…….
71 - yes fred, woe betide anyone posting partisan drivel.
Migration Watch has looked at the government’s figures on the economic benefit of immigration and has uncovered some strange practices. It reminds me of the way the crime figures were ‘reformed’ prior to the GE.
If MW are right then the debate is being based on a false premise. And that sort of thing confirms what many think: that you can’t believe the government figures. And in turn it allows the race hate merchants to rubbish all statistics and replace them with their own propaganda.
70. There is an interesting study out by MigrationWatch today on the same subject, which draws slightly different conclusions. It reveals the government’s repeated claim that immigration benefits by the economy by c £2bn is based on a fiddled methodology. It was a dubious claim anyway, because more detailed analysis had shown all the net benefit from immigration came from a small minority of highly paid (mostly City) workers. Now it appears to have no validity at all.
74 - I find it interesting that Migrationwatch has the cheek sometimes to call itself an independent think-tank. It is independent of party allegiance, but it certainly has an agenda, although when it publishes its reports it plays this down.
Trawl the internet you can find many other such pressure groups - Mediawatch, LibDemWatch, JewWatch…
This concept of “independence” gives them creditibility and respectability they do not deserve. I would trust Migrationwatch’s figures no more than I would the governments. Like the government they will twist figures to suit their agenda.
Some “interesting” Early Day Motions:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=30514&SESSION=875
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=30522&SESSION=875
An interesting report today that puts in context the hopes of a Nulab revival on the back of a brilliant Chancellor. In reality it looks very Nulab.
Gordon Brown’s borrowing record has come under intense fire after official figures confirmed that, had he not changed its parameters at the last minute, he would now have broken his golden rule.
Numbers published by the Treasury showed that the Chancellor would have missed the rule - which states that he must borrow only to invest over each economic cycle - by £2.5bn.
The figures also revealed that he missed his borrowing forecast by £700m last fiscal year, despite setting the target only weeks ago in the Budget………..
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said that, had the Chancellor not changed the dating of the cycle last year, he would have broken his golden rule.
SBS Migration Watch uses ONS figures. Are ONS biased too?
On your definition of ‘independent’ no think tank is independent, and naturally they all have a target purpose and ethos. Is that wrong? Or only wrong when you do not like the result?
For the sake of completeness, I should add that ITEM concluded that it was a good thing that rising unemployment had held down wages, and interest rates, which I think goes to show the unworldliness of some economists.
Blair has just been interviewed on This Morning wearing what looked like a tracksuit…
78 The PSB figures are meaningless anyway.
Gordon Brown will be the chancellor remembered for discovering ‘off balance-sheet borrowing’ and it’s future generations of taxpayers who will remember it most because it is they who will still be paying billions back at inflated rates for decades to come.
If the same standards were applied to the liabilities this Government now has that are applied to a business UK Plc would be in danger of insolvency.
But, frustratingly, no-one is interested.
81. it must be a new startegy to look like a “man of the people”……
Andrea: EDMs are being abused by MPs of every party and have become a total farce. It is a real shame, but I suppose it’s the kind of childish politiking crap we expect from the squabbling parties these days. Dan Norris is a particular offender - he is very “on message” in the EDMs at all times. Probably still sniffing for a ministerial job.
84. Mark, probably more than abused! But at least reading them I get a clear picture of football clubs situations!
And whilst being on-message, Dan Norris is “off facts”, there is now a one year minimum membership before voting in selection contests.
We could, of course, discuss the highly dubious world of Labour selection contests…
79 - confess I have not read what Migrationwatch have said this time. ONS figures are not biased (I hope) but a spin can be put on any figures, and selective use of figures can be dodgy. Just like the government, MW gets figures and thinks “How can we spin these to suit our agenda?”
Indeed no think tank is independent, and naturally they all have a target purpose and ethos. This is fine, but until recently even the (left-wing) BBC were giving rather too much credibility to the “independent migration watchdog” making it appear more official in status, and it was being given the same kind of status as the Consumer Association, for example.
87. SBS - there have indeed been some suggestions of bias at the ONS, but in favour of the government. An example was the pressure they were put under to develop ‘new’ measures of NHS productvity which showed a less distressing picture.
Btw you are of course right - MigrationWatch clearly has an agenda. But that alone does not undermine its findings. If you want to do that, have a look at the calculations and try to find some flaws in them. Dull perhaps, but more convincing than airily dismissing the findings as biased.
A point I made last week - this poll indicates that when Labour loses power as it inevitably should and will, the primary beneficiaries should be the LD’s (dependant on skilfull management- the betting market on Ming’s departure is interesting).
Just think of this- someone of David Cameron’s charisma, skill, media savvy and presentation leading the LD’s now. Cameron has made little impact on the core Tory vote where there is little prospect for growth. If he had been the LD leader now I bet the party would easily be in the mid/late 20’s with much more opportunity for growth.
Re: 78 & 82: The recent furore over NHS funding and anecdotal evidence from friends in local Government in and around London suggests that the public sector funding squeeze is really tight this year. My friend at Surrey tells me 550 jobs are going there and there are rumours of compulsory redundancies in other SE counties.
This suggests to me that the public sector finances are in deep trouble - far worse than is generally realised. With the option of substantial Council tax rises ruled out for political reasons it would seem, the borrowing has to be stemmed by other means. The £1 billion “found” by Brown for the 2005 Council spending round hasn’t reappeared leaving amany authorities with substantial shortfalls.
As for the ICM poll, it’s seemingly good news though the discrepency between the 17% YouGov rating and today’s 24% cannot be explained away, to my mind, by polling methodology. In April 2002, ICM gave the Tories 29% while the March and May figures were both 34% so this may also be an outlier. That said, ICM have long been my “favourite” pollster though I don’t pretend to have the sophisticated level of knowlege of sampling methods that Mike and others on here have.
Marcus, did the A list letters go out this week? When do we get the stories of who is on it?
Stodge 90. I’ll be doing an analysis in the next couple of days on why YouGov and ICM have such different BNP and Lib Dem figures.
In simple terms it is down to how they “process” the data. ICM weights to a past Lib Dem voting recall of 21% while YouGov works on having less than 15% who identify with the party.
YouGov has a record of big fluctuations with its Lib Dem shares
Mike Smithson
81 - Now I have the mental picture of Blair in tracksuit, Cameron with cycling helmet and only Campbell dressed appropriately.
91. I’m rooting for the erotic novelist lady!!
84 - how much does an EDM cost in terms of work created?
95. http://www.politics.co.uk/domestic-policy/early-day-motion-costs-soar-$15140280.htm
90. I’m not sure I would say the public finances are in deep trouble, but certainly there are notable pressures.
It will be fascinating to see over the next year how the government reacts to the cash crisis in the NHS - the pressure for some form of bailout is going to be enormous. Without such a bailout, the public may actually start to notice that huge extra sums of cash do not actually solve the NHS’s problems - a development Labour would be very keen to avoid.
90 Re NHS job cuts. I got a leaflet yesterday alleging that the Department of Health has asking the Oxford health trusts to not announce redundancies until after the locals… It’ll be very interesting to see if this is true…
91. According to the Guardian, they will go out after May 4th (which seems a sensible decision IMO. No need to anger some local councillors who failed to get on the list)
What’s the problem Fred? The NHS has just had its “best ever year”.
98 Anna, if true, that would be beyond disgraceful. But they won’t be able to keep the bad news quiet before the general election.
99 Andrea, thank you, do you have a link?
97. But where can the government cut given its priorities? The big spending departments are health, education, defence and social security. By definition, bailing out the NHS means more money there, the budget speech means education must be in line for increases, the current commitments of the forces means defence spending cannot be cut much - and in any case would be a huge slap in the face after all they’ve done over the last few years - so that leaves social security. Good luck, Gordon.
By the way, if you don’t think there is a serious problem with the government finances, then take a 30bn deficit combined with steady growth and lowish unemployment, and then add a recession with negative growth and 2.5m unemployed and calculate the deficit. The problem is not that the deficit is unsustainable now (it’s not); it’s that the balance between taxation and spending mean it would be in the event of an economic shock.
102. Commentator, it’s more or less in the middle of the article:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,,1756402,00.html
96 -thanks!
Mille grazie Andrea, you are our one-man research department. Surely there must be an MP looking for a researcher who could use you!
101 Commentator, I agree and I have a mind to copy the leaflet and send it off to the Labour party candidate, the returning officer, the department of health, the health trust mentioned and the Daily Mail… Have I missed anyone off that list do you think?
107. Who produced the leaflet?
01 Anna, send it to the Conservatives’ Press Office at CCHQ 25 Victoria Street. And please do it as fast as you can, so that it can be disseminated before the elections. Electors there have a right to judge Labour’s management of the NHS.
You can fax it to CCHQ if you are feeling really energetic, but a first class stamp will likely do the trick!
106. Commentator, I hope the full list will emerge one way or another at some point. I would like to see who managed to get in and who not. For ex, will all 2005 candidate who achieved a good result manage to end up on the list? Will Adam Rickitt make it? And the erotic novel writer (sentences like “Her nipples were still up and full, pointing out at him like angry missiles.”
are pure trash! Not everybody would be able to produce them!)?
16 - What have the Romanovs done for us?
Point very well made. I should have been more respectful and I apologise for bring up the prospect of a by-election so soon after the announcement of Mr Law’s death.
In all fairness I rather liked Law, he clearly had his flaws but he was the latest in a long line of maverick socialists from the welsh valleys who defied the Labour movement. I haven’t heard much of him since his election, but I know that he was incredibility well thought of in Blaenau and he will be a loss in that regard at least.
103. Steady on…I’m not trying to defend GB, just give the debate some perspective. You are quite right that the deficit on a cyclically adjusted basis is too high, and that a serious recession would blow the deficit out to massive levels. But as downbeat as I am on UK economic prospects, such a recession doesn’t really look likely.
What I think would say is the government’s strategy of throwing money at public services in the hope they will sort themselves out is nearing its limits both a) because the money is starting to run out and b) because the failure of the services to respond adequetely to the cash injections they have got is becoming more obvious.
Sean - Patricia Hewitt is starting to sound like a spokesperson for the 27th Ukrainian tractor factory, announcing ‘record production for the fiftieth straight year’…
108 The leaflet is a Focus leaflet for Holywell Liberal Democrats “published and promoted by Neil Fawcett on behalf of Richard Huzzey” (Incidentally the leaflet was delivered by Mr Huzzey in person)
On the third page in an article entitled “Oxford NHS Crisis” by Dr Evan Harris MP, I quote: “In a cynical move, Labour has instructed hospital managers not to announce job cuts in Oxfordshire until after the City Council elections.”
Commentator - I don’t think anyone is being notified about the A list until next week; my mistake.
112. I didn’t mean to be too harsh - apologies if it came across that way. I agree that such a downturn is unlikely, but the thing about economic shocks is that they tend to come by surprise (even when they shouldn’t).
Andrea, well, Edwina Currie, Jeffery Archer, Alastair Campbell and others all wrote fairly sexy books and went into politics. I don’t think anybody cares about that. Berlusconi announces he is staying celibate to channel his energy into the Italian election, everybody laughs. Didn’t Tony Blair say he was a five times a night man in the election campaign?
This is not America, the British are not that prudish IMO. Wouldn’t it have been better if Clinton just said ‘My sex life is my own business’?
I am waiting to see if Howard Flight, Iain Dale and others on the right make it on to the A list, how young/od the candidates are and what is the gender balance. But do you know if they are going to publish the list or make the candidates keep it secret?
113 Anna, it sounds like a LD accusation. I would be interested to get a quote from the NHS trust in question or the Labour councillors up there denying it, otherwise the LibDems may have a point.
114. Marcus/Commentaro. It has often reported that the Priority List should be used for the 140 most winnable seats (if the number is not 140, the situation doesn’t change. Insert the number you like the most). But with boundary changes, how will they decide which are the 140 most winnable seats? I suppose they couldnt’ wait for the “official” notional results to see which is target number 140 and target number 141!
118 Andrea, which brings up another interesting point about boundary changes. I do not really understand what’s happening there. The boundary changes talked about, are they decided, definite, or maybe? When will they take effect if at all?
116. commentator, I’ve nothing against her! But that line was pure cult trash anyway! IIRC she said she voted Labour in 1997. So she’s a “defector”.
If the A list of Tory super candidates has 140 names on it and the constituencies that have to have an A list candidate number between 100 and 150 then all the A list are going to get “winnable” seats.
Thus the local assoc. will have no say especially if there selection meeting is towards the end when there are not many left. Surely the old system of perhaps 500 - 1000 on the candidates list allowed some democratic selection by the local party.
All sounds a bit Stalinist for me.
sorry “their selection meeting” - I know it annoys some of the older posters.
Would a successful Labour victory in the Gwent by-election give Labour a working majority again in the Welsh Assembly?
Icarus - I think the plan is that the list gets “topped up” as people get selected from it.
121, I gather that as one person is chosen, so another candidate will be moved onto the A List in his/her place. Thus, there will alwys be 140 to choose from. It follows that some people on the A List will probably not be chosen to fight seats.
122 - No, just the literate ones
121. Icarus. if I’ve understood well, the list will be will be added to and updated at one point.
But that could be used by opponents. If a local party selects someone who wasn’t on the list in first place, I suppose the other parties could say “they selected a second rate candidate”
119. commentator, almost all Great Britain changes are definitive. I think there’re a couple of authorities where the suggestions aren’t final yet ( West Yorkshire Boroughs IIRC).
Mark Senior will certainly know
127 - Tyne and Wear and West Yorkshire Boroughs have still to be finalised although the latter will almost certainly not change . I think Manchester could still appeal against the revised proposals but again they are unlikely to change .
In the ICM poll turnout would be 53% so the “wont bother to vote party” has increased its share by 8% (but perhaps this is to be expected so far from an election).
The 18 - 34 year old percentage split is Labour 38%, Lib Dem 35% and Tories 18%.
The demographic march continues to wittle away at the Tories.
Thanks again Andrea. I can’t wait til Baxter updates properly. I wish there were a Baxter that calculated on this basis instead of notional uniform swing.
Topped up from the “B” list presumably.
129 “The 18 - 34 year old percentage split is Labour 38%, Lib Dem 35% and Tories 18%.”
Yes, I know that these are the least likely to turn out, and that you get more right wing as you get older, but surely this statistic must get some alarm bells ringing in Conservative Central Office.
128. I know you would have come to the rescue!
re 129. The demographic march continues to wittle away at the Tories.
I think it works the other way. People get more Tory as they get old and we are living longer.
As well having bus passes, thanks to Gordon, the elders are much more likely to vote.
Mike Smithson
Congratulations to Peter Hain for the worst tribute of the day to Peter Law:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/4941400.stm
134. Yes older voters are becoming a larger and larger proportion of the total possible voters, and because they are more likely to vote, an even larger proportion of the actual voters.
123. Anthony Little. here’s the full list of Welsh Assembly Members:
http://www.wales.gov.uk/who/constit_e.htm
Labour should have 30 out 60 members if they win Blaenau Gwent byelection
Mike and will not be impressed at the 200 pound rebate for council tax being offered them in an election year - but not subsequently.
136. is tha fact that older voters have an higher turnout common in other countries too?
136 - Given this do you think there is scope for a specialist ‘Pensioners Party’ as in Israel? Even with FPTP it might have a chance in some of the south coast seaside towns…
140. Such a party exists in Holland, I believe, and has had some electoral success. But I think pensioners are a more diverse group here and there are less obvious ‘group’ entitlements for them to defend.
140 Lennon. There’s already a Pensioners Party in Beaconsfield !
And what about the Super Pensioners ??
Jack W is 103.
The 18-34 demographic is as I understand it projected to grow over the next few years as the nadir of the mid-1970s birth rate works out the other end. That group will themselves retire in due course and the baby-boomers will not live forever.
The underlying point is that a 20-something has more voting years ahead of her (with any luck) than a 70 year old. That makes the figures worrying for the Conservatives. Demographics ebb and flow but the consistent under-performance in the younger age group throws the Conservatives back onto squeezing more and more votes out of the coffin dodgers, which is less than ideal. And Dave (particularly compared with Ming) was supposed to change all that but no signs.
I do not accept the argument that people must tend to vote Conservative as they get older - Older people dont change their football club even though they are as good as they were in the old days.
But if you are right then perhaps Ming was a good choice after all eh mike?
134 This may well be true but there is still a point at which a particular voter changes his allegiance . If the swing needed to give the Conservatives a majority at the next election is say 6% then the differential death rate means that they will actually need around a 7% swing . Voters propensity to change may make this a little easier to achieve but the change of allegiance is still needed .
Back in 1976, three years before Thatcher won, surely the Conservatives share of the 18 - 34 age group was higher than 18%. Despite the caveats raised by Fred and Mike, this is a terrible statistic for the Tories.
Going all the way back to 23 and Frank Luntz. I know for a fact that up to the end of January Frank had not met Cameron. He may well have met him since.
113 - well in the past six months we have delivered leaflets claiming that the PCTs were about to look at closing local Community hospitals, which they subsequently did, and that the Oxfordshire NHS Trusts would be forced to find £50 million of cuts, which they are now doing. We are confident that we can trust our sources on this one too
This pretty much gave the game away in the local press:
http://www.thisisoxfordshire.co.uk/search/display.var.719472.0.82m_deficit_means_hospital_jobs_at_risk.php
The ICM poll also asked how you would vote if there was a local election in your area tomorrow.
The responses were Labour 29% Conservative 29% and Liberal Democrats 21% (Others were 21%).
However turnout would be 75.6%
Wisely the Guardian didnt use these “facts” - really polls are only so much use!!
The ranks of a Pensioners’ Party could be swollen by the other innumerable individuals who do not actually produce any goods or services but who rely on the state to redistribute wealth towards them and away from those who are economically active. I suspect if you ran this through Baxter we’d be looking at a 600+ majority. Isn’t it time for the paries to realign themselves around real economic interests: Labour for dependents, Tories for producers and LibDems for those who whinge both ways?
144 - I think there is an element of both. Older people do tend to be in the higher wealth (if not income) brackets, they tend to have savings and therefore appreciate low inflation, and very broadly and not in all cases exhibit greater preference for stability. Traditionally, the Conservatives have been seen as better to deliver those things, although there is a risk that the perception of this has faded badly. It isn’t a given that people get more Conservative with the passage of time and it would be a mistake for Conservatives to say - “oh there’s an aging population so we’ll be fine”.
117 - I haven’t heard any Labour councillors denying it. In fact I suspect they are even more livid than the rest of the population - it is losing them a pile of votes.
132. “you get more right wing as you get older”
I don’t think this is true. I was certainly more right-wing when I was 17 than I am now (8 years later). I think that in general people mellow with age and are more likely to vote for centrist conservative parties, thus perhaps why they become more likely to vote Conservative.
150. I thought Labour had already parcelled up the ‘dependents’ vote pretty well…have a look at the recent stats on the % of regional GDP generated by the public sector and then overlay a map of voting patterns. You will find a neat fit.
There is what would appear to be a very strong Pensioner party in Devon, who fielded a candidate in a local by-election and got thrashed. Subsequently they decided that election fighting wasn’t for them… they had promised to fight the lot at the full election last May.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/25042006/344/most-britons-support-bnp-policies.html
Interesting link here with more great publicity for the BNP. The amazing thing is how little support for their immigration policies goes down when the poll respondents are told they are BNP policies.
What are the BNP’s policies on the lots of Polish and other European temporary migrants - who balence the “temporary” emmigrants that we pack off to Spain and Cyprus? I assume they dont oppose Brits moving to Spain so can’t reasonably oppose Europeans coming here. If so they are exposed as racists (and the Pope is Catholic, etc, etc).
Surely free movement of labour is inevitable and “a good thing” both for the labourers and the economy.
129, etc. And the sample size for people under 24 in the poll once all the don’t knows and won’t votes have been taken out? There were 25 of them, a margin of error of 19.6%.
The Tories tend to be second or third in the age bracket, but the actual figures are meaningless on such small samples, if you look at the splits for under 25s in ICM polls there are huge movements (as you would expect with sample sizes that low). Back in January they had the Tories at 30%, then in February down to 18%, then back up to 24% in March and so on.
Obvious we don’t have detailled cross-tabs for polls in 1976, but in the October 1974 election, MORI’s agregate figures had the Tories trailing in third place amongst under 25s on 24% of the vote.
In America, young people simply do not vote, even when registered to do so in voting drives. Ask Howard Dean.
Is it the same thing for us over here? Never read any UK studies on it.
157 - I think the BNP’s “policies” are not worthy of such detailed analysis. What they stand for is based on gutinstinct and ill-informed prejudice, as well as extreme nationalism and racism. They do not consider the consequences of their policies.
Similarly, back in the 1970s Pol Pot abolished education and money, and freed all prisoners. Those were his instincts - but the consequences were not very well though through.
OK - but we were talking about under 34s - a sample of 100 - but I agree the detailed splits should be taken with a large pinch of “margin of error”
I think you are right, Julian. There is a world of difference between “conservative” (disliking change) and Conservative (Tory). Thatcher, for example, brought in a load of change when she set about destroying society - and we are still suffering from it.
61 - and the youth of Cameron is meant to be a strength compared to geriatric Ming. Is there any evidence that Cameron is winning over the youth vote yet?
In how many places is Abingdon Neil Fawcett election agent?
He is election agent for the Tower Hamlets Liberal Democrats, whose local party was suspended last year.
John13 - If Cameron is to be be believed he is planning lots of unsettling changes. He has alreadsy lost the youth vote (and their parents) by backing higher taxes on education. He now seems to be going to alienate the apparently conservative older voter as well. Seems that whoever took Marcus’s money the other day is fairly safe.
155 - Sylvia Harding in the by-election wasn’t it? There was an amusing article in the Times about her later. She refused to pay her council tax increase, was eventually jailed and some kindly fellow came forward and paid for her - she was not best pleased, and he was a bit cross himself having shelled out £100 or whatever it was only to be roundly abused by the old bird. The Guardian confidently stated the day before the by-election that she was “expected to win” and she came a fairly poor last in the end which is a little bit of comfort for those of us whose predictions for May turn out to be slightly off next week.
A disaster looming for Charles Clarke……In the last 8 years, 1023 foreign nationals released from prison without being considered for deportation, including murderers and sex offenders. Apparently a balls up between the IND and the Prison Service.
The evidence is that people do not switch as much as they used to as they get older. Also the “younger” voters tend to get annoyed by being patronized -e.g William Hague- so the age of a party leader probably only makes a marginal difference, if any.
Anecdotal I know - but back in 1990 in a local election in Oxford, there were four candidates. The winner, a LD, was the only non-student, and was at least twice the age of any other candidate. The electorate was about 90-95% student. It was one of only four gains from Labour outside London that year.
I believe it is a myth that young voters prefer younger politicians. I am not convinced that Cameron is pulling in a yoof vote.
Icarus - oops
but exactly the same point applies. There were only 75 people interviewed between 25-34 so a margin of error of about 11%, and it swings about wildly. In the C4 poll earlier this month the Tories were at 27% amongst that age group, in last month’s Guardian poll they were at 32%.
You can’t tell anything from looking at such small age splits from single polls. You’d have to aggregate the data from a number of polls (and then weight to properly represent that age group - i.e at the moment it’s impossible to tell).
165-Icarus
So now people only vote on a single issue (Education according to your post) at a GE,get real!
129: Projected turnout down 8%? Yes, that fits with my reading of the position: quite a few former Labour voters are sitting on their hands, neither happy with the Government nor convinced by the Opposition (but some will vote LibDem as a harmless-looking protest). Canvassing in London last night on a working-class estate, I didn’t meet any hostility and only one switcher from us, but a number of “Labour last time, dunno if I’ll bother” responses.
Another question for our super-researcher Andrea - what was the last time that a poll gave the two major parties between them no more than 66% of the vote? I can’t remember it ever happening.
To add to what Anthony Wells says, Yougov’s latest survey has 600 people aged 18-34. 30% of them said they’d vote Conservative, compared to 35% for Labour, 18% for the Lib Dems, and 9% for the BNP.
The point about people generally moving to the Right as they get older is undeniable.
Nick, any comment on the idea that the Labour party asked Oford NHS trusts to delay news of job cuts until after the locals?
If true, wouldn’t you condemn that? Is it even legal?
Or is it false?
“what was the last time that a poll gave the two major parties between them no more than 66% of the vote? I can’t remember it ever happening. ”
Nick, there was a MORI poll with Lab 35, Con 30, LD 26 on Dec 2-6 2004
In September 2004, a Populus poll gave Con 32%, and Lab 28%. In fact there were several polls in the Summer of 2004 producing similarly low combined figures.
175. In 2004 there polls with the 2 big parties under 60. That was the time where the LDs were super-strong and catching the tories. In July 2004 a Populus poll gave Lab 30, Con 28, LD 28
176 - I was going to say something similar - I think it was fairly commonplace in the post-Brent pre-Howard period.
Nick - the last time ICM had Labour as low as this, just after the Brent East by-election, also had the two main parties on under 66% (in fact they were both on 31%).
Since Sean’s mentioned them, if you take a rough average of the YouGov polls since Cameron’s election and the three before Cameron’s election, the Conservative gains were pretty much even across the age groups - they gained 3% amongst under 35s, 3% amongst 35-54s and 4% amongst over 55s. In other words, there wasn’t really a huge age factor to the Cameron honeymoon.
93 Now I have the mental picture of Blair in tracksuit, Cameron with cycling helmet and only Campbell dressed appropriately.
You mean he is in full Ming regalia.
180. Gosh, are you sure you would like to picture Ming in those tight outfits?!
79. Thank you Anthony for providing some sober analysis to shut the ridiculous Lib Dem generational determinists up.
Sad to hear the news of Peter Law’s death. He was quite effective as a minister and dealt fairly with AM’s from all sides. He was quite a flamboyant character who used his wit to deadly affect on opponents. One of a tiny group of Labour Ams of any ability his decision to become an independent helped limit the damage the Labour administration has done.
His agent had been selected to fight the assembly seat next year so I assume he will stand in the by-election. Although the guy is clearly not of the same quality as Peter Law he will draw some support off Labour. Have no idea how we will approach the by-election.
181 - It is one of the great tragedies of modern politics that lycra had yet to take off in athletics in the 1960s. Had it done so, the nation might have been “treated” to footage (and I use that word advisedly) of the Campbell lunchbox when he became Lib Dem leader.
184. James, that photo is not promising about his “qualities”:
http://editorial.gettyimages.com/source/search/details_pop.aspx?iid=56567142&cdi=0
185 - I can only bow to your years of experience assessing these matters!
186.
But he could always give his version. In the end even Glenda Jackson praised herself saying she “never had such a marvellous bosom” like in “Women In Love”.
185 - Bullseye vs. Ming - who has the larger majority?
Sorry
167 I’m sure we’ll all be relieved to learn this is not a resigning issue. Mind you, who would they be left with, if the relevant minister had to resign every time his department made a major cock up?
189. David Davis is going to speak about it at 4.15 PM.
189 - When was the last unforced Cabinet resignation through the supposed constitutional convention of “individual responsibility” for a major departmental failure? Probably the closest was the almost immediate departure of the entire FCO team (Carrington, Atkins and Luce) in April 1982 after the Falklands were invaded. Any since then?
188. John, just for you, here’s another perceptive:
http://editorial.gettyimages.com/source/search/details_pop.aspx?iid=56567146&cdi=0
(Thankfully) it’s not a close up….strange movements anyway
Seems that many were let out on licence - but they still can only find 160 of them!
Time to lay Clarke at everything.
191 - Estelle Morris over exam boards. Carrington was one for the purists as he had was overruled by cabinet on the Falklands being underdefended and still resigned whereas Morris was more culpable - but it was still squarely within the ministerial responsibility doctrine.
190. I forgot to mention where DD was going to speak. It was on Sky and well, he’s always a bad speaker.
195 Wille Whitelaw offered to resign after Michael Fagan broke into the queens bedroom in 1982 but he was over-ruled by Maggie.
Estelle Morris on the priniple that she wasnt up to the job, or at least she thought not!
————-
Dear Tony,
I am writing to confirm my wish to resign as Secretary of State.
As I explained when I came to see you yesterday morning, I am proud of the role I have played in the government, both as Schools Minister and as Secretary of State.
In many ways, I feel I have achieved more in the first job than I have in the second.
I’ve learned what I’m good at and also what I’m less good at. I’m good at dealing with the issues and in communicating to the teaching profession.
I am less good at strategic management of a huge department and I am not good at dealing with the modern media.
I believe passionately in what this Labour Government is trying to do
All this has meant that with some of the recent situations I have been involved in, I have not felt I have been as effective as I should be, or as effective as you need me to be.
You were kind enough to say you wanted me to think about it further overnight and be absolutely sure that this is what I want to do. I have done so, and it is.
I will look back with real pride at the role I have played in helping to raise standards in literacy and numeracy in primary schools, in the reform programme we now have for secondary schools, and indeed at all levels of education; and perhaps above all the enhanced status of the teaching profession.
But I feel this is the right decision for me, and for the government.
I also want to thank you personally for giving me the chance to serve in the Cabinet and also for being so considerate and understanding.
I believe passionately in what this Labour Government is trying to do and I will continue to support you in whatever way I can.
Best Wishes, Estelle Morris
—–
Seemingly Tony would have been happy to let her carry on after she told him she wasnt up to the job!
198 - To some extent that is what the principle of ministerial responsibility is. You are saying that a major failing in the department occurred and although you did not personally cause it by way of some act, you must to some extent be responsible by ommission as the head of the department.
164 - I am election agent for all the Lib Dem candidates in Tower Hamlets and for one candidate in Oxford.
I can’t imagine Clarke falling on his sword - too much of a machine politician for that. He will have to be dragged screaming away from his red boxes.
201 - No, ministerial responsibility is a dead doctrine although to be fair it was very, very poorly through the 1980s and Lamont’s failure to go over the clearest possible case of circumstances where the doctrine must apply killed it stone dead. I mention Morris as a case but I suspect she would have gone even if the doctrine had never existed - she wanted to go away and regroup whereas Carrington didn’t but felt obliged.
72. On the polling question in recent times the summer/autumn 2004 polls routinely put both parties in the low 30’s late 20’s.
In the longer term past the polls from about January 1981 for the following 16 months had both stuck parties mostly in the high 20’s (sometimes early 30’s)- that is until a certain Faulklands happened and the rest is history. Somehow I doubt Iraq and Afghanistan is going to quite have the same punch.
Peter Law’s allies are set to contest both by-elections in Blaenau Gwent:
http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0200wales/tm_objectid=16992068&method=full&siteid=50082&headline=spotlight-on-former-labour-stronghold-after-law-death-name_page.html
202. I would love to see Clarke go, though. I think he is one of the most unpleasant individuals in British politics.
Re the (two) Dutch pensioners parties.
They won 7 (out of 150) seats in the 1994 GE. They only were succesful at fighting amonst themselves and soon splintered in to 4 different factions. They lost all their seats in 1998 and there are no signs of a comeback.
205 - I take that as an endorsement for Conservatives to vote tactically in Norwich South to winkle him out in 2009, Fred! A new Portillo moment?
Forgive me if this has been mentioned already, but remember that there is already a Pensioners’ Party represented in the Scottish Parliament. So maybe the idea is not so alien to British politics after all.
207. You could even get cross-national (other than cross-party) consesus here. If I lived in Norwich South, I would be tempted to put across over the LD logo….but I’m sure the LDs would manage to make me change my mind and vote Green!
Maybe my memory is failing me (deep into an election campaign) but this foreign prisoners farce seems to me a new departure, so to speak, for this gov’t.
They may be the most authoritarian government in Europe, but they have, on the whole, avoided seeming incompetent until now. (I dare say someone will now come up with a list disproving what I say)
On a completely different topic and several days old now and I don’t know whether anyone else commented on it but:
On BBC News on Saturday (or was it Sunday?) they showed Gordon Brown addressing world Finance Ministers in America on the Oil price crisis. He commented that much of the problem was due to the demand from Asia and urged suppliers to be more innovative in increasing supply to stabilise the price.
Next item on the news was Gordon Brown on his concern and efforts to control climate change. The clip they used was a picture of GB from his address of the Finance Ministers from the previous story.
What? I’m I the only one to find this bizarre?
We wouldnt have known about 1000 immigrant convicts not deported by Labour, if it were not to Conservative MP Richard Bacon. Mr Bacon was responsible for pressing from answers.
Labour would have continued to cover it up. Hat tip to Richard.
The trickle is turning into a flood…
Beverley Hughes.
Commentator: no, of course NHS decisions shouldn’t be influenced by the timing of elections. Given the separate chains of command it seems unlikely - there is a paranoid theory that all arms of public service work in close-knit conspiracy, but my experience is that they don’t work together that well even when they’re supposed to (any more than private company departments do, for that matter).
As responsibilty,accountability and dignity have never been part of the New Labour vocabulary.
Does anybody know if there is any level of incompetence that would justify a New Labour minister being sacked,let alone resigning ?
Thank you Nick P, I commend your gutsy decision to come here and defend your party on the record. Would that more MPs blogged.
145 Mark Senior What differential death rate? The average members’s age between Tory and Labour is about 2 years if I recall correctly. Have you more detailed figures?
This stuff about the Tory voters dying out is just whistling to keep certain spirits up.
The parliamentary papers on voting by age are interesting. Looking at the Labour percentage advantage in votes per age group it shows we are slowly catching up all over including gaining older voters from Labour.
Age GE 2001 GE2005
18-24 14% 10%
25-34 27% 13%
35-44 17% 14%
45-54 9% 4%
55-64 -2% -8%
Over 65 -1% -6%
We need to make inroads in the younger vote but we also need to attract back lost older voters. But the biggest deficit (61%) is in non-white voters for 2001. Perhaps the fact that we had more minority ethnic candidates in 2005 was partly a recognition of that. Unfortunately there is no corresponsidng figure for 2005.The 2005 stats cover Muslim voters. Work to do there too.
The tapering profile supports the hypothesis that voters get more Chameleocentric as they get older.
There has been one example recently of a young poster moving over to support the Tories, and that brought out other stories of non-geriatrics moving our way, so it does happen. More and more.
215 john. NuLabour are following in the fine tradition of the last Conservative government, well known as they were for resigning at the first whiff of scandal ….. Chelsea football kit anybody.
A nice picture of the Home Sec here.
218. Jack, are there other Jack W’s branch out there?
Jack W (Nah-Eileananan lar Branch)?
214. I don’t think anything could be quite as incompetant as university run bodies!
O/T Nick, have you heard of any moves re; the university pay dispute? Would be nice if the two sides could get their arses in gear and sort it before we students start sitting exams, so we can…er, sit then and then graduate!
217 Hi bluenotsolikelytowin . I did some detailed calculations on this subject a couple of years ago based on voting intentions amongst the oldest part of the population . Sorry they have been lost in house moves but IIRC they showed a small swind from Con to Lab of about 2% per annum for this effect . As others have pointed out this is offset by the trend for voters to be more likely to vote Conservative as they get older . Over a 5 year parliament this means that Conservatives need around a 1% extra swing to compensate for differential death rates but part of the swing is easier to achieve for the latter reason .
222 Mark Senior Interesting, but the parliamentary research shows the move to the Tories in all age groups between 2001 and 2005 general elections.
“I certainly don’t think I have a duty to the public to go - I have a duty to sort this out ” Charles Clarke
Apparently the worse you are at your job the greater your job security as you have to remain to sort the mess out.
18 - Private affairs don’t count, this is about government cock ups (no pun intended, honest…….)
223, Blue2Win, are you trusting MORI polls so much?
220 Andrea. It’s my new PB.com franchise! …. fancy the Milan operation?
I’m especially looking forward to awarding Monaco, San Francisco and Sydney ……… to myself !!
225 ukpaul. Ok ….. how about the several £Billion lost on the various Black weekdays ?? …… now who was that in the background behind Norman Lament ?
114 - That would be the seperate chains of command that involved a group of senior NHS managers being hauled in to see Blair and Hewitt recently, would it?
Labour’s success is due to an efficient propaganda machine.
The chickens are coming home to roost but in reality they have been consistently bad from the beginning. To remind yourself of the greats like Beverly Hughes, Mittal, Hindujas, Vaz et al, check out Ken’s http://www.laboursleaze.com . Tell’em TS sent you!
228 - As I recall Norman Lamont did resign, didn’t he?
So Clarke shouldn’t resign because one of the tories didn’t? I really don’t understand that logic.
Clarke has screwed up royally and saying “but Miss, they did it too” is as weak a defence as you could get.
227.”fancy the Milan operation? ”
Jack, what kind of operation is it?
Don’t tell you were involved in the heckling of the outgoing Education Secretary this afternoon in Milan during the parade to celebrate the anniversary of the liberation from fascists/Nazis?
231 I think Jack is reffering to Dave, the Chameleon being an adviser to Lemont at the time.
234 - And what has that got to do with the principle of ministerial resignation? BTW was Cameron an economic adviser or a political adviser?
Andrea On the basis that even MORI can’t make a mess of a trend using their own methodology in each case. If you want certainty over the accuracy of individual percentages, well……….. but even at standard MoE the trend is still clearly our way in all age groups.
32 - Just checking up, Lamont offered to resign but Major kept him on (I’m sure he regretted that given how he treated him later). Just when has Clarke offered to resign?
Had an email from Buckie this evening (Moray) - 2 SNP members are threatened to remain in Buckie where they are staying for the by-election as ‘canvassing is a real pleasure here compared to home’ I presume the campaign is going well in that area of the seat. We need them back as we are defending a minute majority next year.
235. well, I don’t know. I’m not even sure what he was talking about….the “now who was that in the background behind Norman Lament ?” question made me think of DC, but maybe he was referring to someone else. I don’t know who was in the background behind Norman Lament in that day……
238. Marcia, it could also means that campaign is not doing well in Dundee!!!
235 It has nothing to do with it, Alex. Its the wooden spoon working. When minister’s resign political advisers are usually out of a job? Dave the Cuddly Chameleon moved over to the Home Office I believe to be a ‘pol’ there and thus the relationship with Michael Howard started.
I can’t see how Clarke can survive, unless the media (who he just criticised - that was clever) leave well alone. Once they sink their teeth into it, I can’t see his position being tenable. Although Labour have never understood the word “accountability.” If I oversaw such a terrible mistake, I would quite rightly be fired there and then. Why is it (once again) one rule for the Labour cronies and another rule for everyone else?
235. according to the BBC, political adviser
240 - no Andrea they are very pleased indeed with the reception on the doorsteps in Moray. Shona Robison will do well next year - she is never out of the local press here - a very hard working MSP despite her hairstyle.
242 The BBC certainly aren’t covering for him. They have a “Your Say” page up and the comments are hardly favourable.
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?threadID=1570&&&edition=1&ttl=20060425193848
239 - Yes i know he was referring to Cameron.
244. Marcia, yes the left part (or right, it depebs how you look at her) of her hair tend to go very far
241. Blue2Win, Cuddly? Well, I suppose it depends on personal preferences….for a moment I prefered Widdy in lycra…..
Douglas Hogg, anybody?
48 - Is that an offer?
My point about national political resignations is that Conservative and Labour are two sides of the same coin. Neither are paragons of virtu about leaving the field when the ref blows.
249 - not today thank you.
150. Yeah, Jenny Tonge was much quicker to go.
Not exactly sure what Jenny Tonge is supposed to have done beyond possible harm to the LDs?
153. that’s why she went quicker!
154 - don’t think Jenny Tongue resigned. She was sacked. (CK used to sack people in the same way Yeltsin used to sack his PMs.)
Tongue, a GP, later went on to question his health. Bet Tongue wish she’d stayed a GP now, given what they earn!
155. didn’t he ask her to resign? well, actually, it’s a nice way to tell her she would sack her anyway.
why are you calling her tongue? is it a nickname for her used by LDs?
256 Andrea. Revolting thought !
Can I put in a bid for the Melbourne and Singapore operations
258. With Jenny?
113- “108 The leaflet is a Focus leaflet for Holywell Liberal Democrats “published and promoted by Neil Fawcett on behalf of Richard Huzzey” (Incidentally the leaflet was delivered by Mr Huzzey in person)”
You should have said you were the PBC Anna– I had at the back of my mind the fact that I may end up bumping into you during the campaign!
Hope the campaign’s interesting; I’m certainly enjoying it.
Best wishes,
Richard.
(Printed, published and promoted by on behalf of Richard Huzzey of himself, at 27 Park End St., Oxford, OX1 1HU).
160 I didn’t think to mention it, sorry… Good luck with your leafleting BTW. The bar-chart is particularly impressive
It’ll be very interesting to see whether Dr Harris’ claims come true…
161. Anna, you’re becoming a vip!
162 Very infuriating person?
255. Rather naughty mentioning Charles Kennedy and Boris Yeltsin in the same sentance, given their occasional shared inability to make their scheduled appointments (or be rather ‘tired’ if they did).
261 - I will be very surprised if the Oxfordshire NHS Trusts can find a way to cut £50 million off their budget without anyone losing their job!
265 Abingdon Neil, you don’t happen to been Neil Fawcett of the focus leaflet fame do you?
I was the Conservative candidate who took on Mr Clarke at the 2005 election. Despite his public image I have always found him to be a genuine, friendly and decent man to do business with. He clearly has a great deal of time for people. However … having said that this is clearly a massive mistake and I am a great believer in individual ministerial responsibility and there being accountability in the political system. It is time that one of Blair’s men did the decent thing and resigned over a crisis like this. You cannot be the Home Secretary who put 1000 criminals onto the streets of Britain who shouldn’t have been there and stay in office. To stay in office through this would be a snub to the British people, and more importantly those who voted Labour in Norwich South last year. I strongly believe that Mr Clarke is an honourable man and needs to do the honourable thing now. A mistake, a potentially dangerous mistake, has been made and somebody needs to take responsibility. Not a little known civil servant or a junior minister but the man in charge - the Secretary of State. It is Mr Clarke’s department and the buck stops at his desk. If Mr Clarke doesn’t resign over this issue, he need not wonder why people become turned off by politics and why turnout continues to falter.
266. Anna, he has already said he’s the agent of all LD Tower Hamlets candidates at 200.
266 - oh yes indeed. Political colleague and friend of the excellent Mr Huzzey.
(Published and promoted by me on behalf of him)
267 Antony Little. Bah Humbug !!
Tell us how many Tory ministers and MPs you called on to resign during the interminable scandals of the Major years?
270. Jack, are you now become New Labour prime cheerleader?
No, don’t resign. Let this run and run until May 4th. Let’s get the Labour % vote down to the high 20s.
That should finish off this Prime Minister, and signal that the end in sight for this incompetent and hopeless government.
270 Jack, your Highlands and Islands branch seems to have given up all pretence of non-partisanship… and you seem to have given up logical progression of your arguments as well…
Surely the current issue is whether or no Mr Clarke has made a blunder of sufficient magnitude to get him booted. The antics of consevative ministers a decade ago is simply not relevant…
271 Andrea. No !!! …..but lets have some consistency from all concerned and not hypocracy.
273. I suppose to lose one Home Secretary could be regarded as a misfortune, but to lose two within 18 months …
The Tories need to attack, attack, attack on this. David Davis wasn’t the most inspiring on the 10 o’clock News just now.
But well done Richard Bacon, Tory MP, for exposing this. Give that man a coconut!
274. Jack, please, be serious. Do you really think Labour would have not asked for the minister’s resignation if they were in opposition? They would have, so you should ask constitency to them too. But you aren’t
273 Anna. Not at all ….. even David Davis isn’t calling for Clarke to go !! Has he become a Jacobite?
277 Andrea. See 278. And yes they are as bad as each other.
Tonight the person responsible for the identifying the immigrant criminal scandal was referred by the BBC as “a backbench MP” & “that backbench MP”.
Neither did they gave his name or his party. Really, the BBC are so biased they require breakup and selloff.
Richard Bacon, Conservative MP was responsible for discovering that 1023 immigrant criminals (rapists, murderers & kidnappers) were not deported and are lose.
278 - they might be now that new figures have been released, according to that nice Mr Robinson chap on the BBC News, which show that over 200 more have been released since last summer when the problem first came to light.
Looks like its curtains for Clarke now - and curtains for Blair too probably.
278 Jack your point about consistency is fair dos. Stephen Byers went because he used 9/11 for political cover and put Railtrack into administration in an imcompetent fashion IIRC. I think Clarke has managed to far exceed that level of incompetence…
279. Jack, you could stop to deny. We all know you’re more New Lab loyalist than a drunken Blair’s babe
So Charles Clarke now caught telling porkies,what a surprise!
So much for his taking immediate action,when the situation was drawn to his attention last summer but elected to do nothing.
280 - to be fair on the BBC, they did credit Bacon in full on the 10pm News, and featured a few words from him. Seems a jolly nice chap, very new Tory.
283
As Roger seems to be away,Jack W is one of the few fully paid up New Labour loyalists posting on this site, somebody’s got to try and defend their position apart from Nick P.
282 Anna, If competence was the mark of ministerial employment then Conservatives and Labour would be operating a revolving door policy.
281 Bob. I wouldn’t nip down to Mark and Spencer for those new blue curtains just yet !
I wonder if the Conservatives are hoping that the media will do the dirty job of actually hounding him from office, allowing them to emerge with clean hands and a sorrowful expression.
If the press really smell blood, and not just the usual suspects, it might even work.
The real danger in all this is not the fate of one minister - even if it’s quite a senior one - but the impression that this is making on the government in general.
The Major administration became a bit of a joke because of the continual stream of ’scandals’ (many of which had nothing to do with their job), and an administration that looked accident-prone. Labour is in severe danger of reaching the same point, but not only seen as incompetent, but corrupt and arrogant into the bargain. It may still get away with it if Cameron cannot turn the Tory fortunes around, but as today’s poll shows, Labour’s fortunes are at very low levels historically.
As well as the prisoner/deporation story in the news, there is the tax credits overpayments (Five Live: “the government has said millions are benefitting from tax credits” - yes, by about £2bn too much), and the ramifications of letting the the NHS budget run out of control still rumbling on. No one scandal brought down the Major government; it was the cumulative effect of them all, plus the ERM. Blair has had his Poll Tax / ERM moment in Iraq. The cumulative effects of so many bad news stories at once is a very bad sign indeed for a party that once commanded the media.
286 john. Perhaps it’s just I find it somewhat nausiating to listen to Tories with selective memories.
287 The accepted competence level is extremely low for a minister, but considering the salary of a cabinet minister and that of a director of a large company, where do you expect the capable managers to end up??
Even so, mislaying a thousand or so criminals is beyond ordinary tolerance levels…
Jack W - as I was doing my ‘A’ Levels at the time, none!
It’s lose-lose for Labour now. If Clarke hangs on then it drives Labour’s standing down further. If he goes tomorrow his ‘legacy’ is guaranteed to be repeated until the locals and beyond.
As a paid up Lib Dem member, councillor, parliamentary candidate and group secretary I must say, well done Richard Bacon.
… and besides which that isn’t much of an arguement. I know you are getting very anti-Tory these days, Jack (Cameron getting to you, is he?) but trotting out that sort of line smacks of desperation.
Ministers who fail should resign. Clarke admits responsibility, he should resign.
Now, no don’t be too hard on poor Jack - old men like him do tend to get out of sorts from time to time! Perhaps it is time for his incontinence pad to be changed?
295. AHM, behave well! The Venerable Jack (who’s not morphing into in the Venerable Helen. Hopefully!) voted for the tories in 1992. So actually he’s partrly resposible for Major years! With that wirght on his conscience, you have to excuse him
295 - Blast it!
Inadvertently submitted that comment before I was finished editing for spelling and left the emoticon out at the end. Only kidding, Jack! 
I think you’ll find that most of the 1,000 were convicted of relatively minor crimes (let’s remember ‘assualt’ is a broad term covering offences from rape/manslaughter to a few angry words after closing hours). Of course a few of those will have been involved in very serious crimes but the media (and the Tories) have blown this out of proportion.
I find it ironic that after much publicity about the ‘New Conservatives’ Cameron and co are playing the race and immigration card in exactly the same way Hague, Howard et al have done. I think this exposes the truth behind the ‘reformed’ Tories and shows exactly what a fraud David Cameron is. It’s not subtle, modern and (hopefully) it won’t be successful.
297 I think Andrea @296 just topped your insult… Are you feeling a little tetchy tonight Andrea? :$
292/294 Antony. I think you’ll find consistency a valuable asset in what I am sure will be a long and industrious career !
And the only place Cameroon seems to be getting to is flat lining around the artic poll !!
295 AHM. incontinence or imcompetence pads ……. nurse !
Jack W is 103 !!
296 - I voted for Major in 1992 and my conscience is perfectly clear! It’s leaving us in 1997 that Jack really needs forgiveness for
298. If that post reflects the official Labour spin on this fiasco then they’re really in trouble…
I heard this story with growing astonishment during the afternoon. I don’t agree with Bob’s view that Blair has to go but I do share the view that Clarke has to carry the can for what seems like an astonishing history of ineptitude over a seven-year period from 1999 to March of this year though I do accept he wasn’t “in charge” for much of that period.
I think the one positive from this episode is that it illustrates the continuing power of backbench MPs to harass and call Ministers to amount. I believe it was Norman Baker who asked the initial question that brought to light Mandelson’s dealings with the Hinduja brothers and now plaudits are due to Richard Bacon (what price a future senior Opposition spokesman :)) for exposing this scarcely-credible tale of incompetence.
I didn’t go out canvassing tonight but if I had, I’m sure I’d have mentioned it to any wavering Labour supporter.
299. what does the $ mean, Anna?
301. Alastair, you’ve done worse things. So voting for Major is really a minor offence considering your past and present
298 - Actually according to the BBC report all of these criminals have to have been given sentences of more than a year to be deported. You don’t get a year in jail for a few angry words after closing hours.
And in what way are the Tories playing the race card? A backbencher has exposed a scandal regarding criminals being accidentally set free - should he not have done so just because these criminals happen to be foreign?
301 AHM. Heavens above Alastair you voted for Nosey in 1832 !!
re 58. I reemmber in the 1974Oct parliament when there were 4 bye elections in a day. Heady days…
304 - No, I’ve never voted Liberal or Labour - I’m innocent!
307. Anyway, I fail to see how I insulted Jack at 296!
03 - I didn’t mean to imply that Blair has to go because of this latest bungling. I meant “curtains for Blair” in the same sense that the events of 1994-1997 meant it was “curtains for Major”.
Having just seen Clarke being butchered by Paxman, I think he’s certainly a goner. No doubt he’ll do a Blunkett and resurface in a year’s time…
306 - Exactly, much good it did him
If Clarke resigns or is sacked, who will replace him?
Just saw Clarke on Newsnight - appalling. If the press decides to really run on this, he must go. All we need is Roger to say he thinks Clarke will survive and the awful man’s number will be up for sure.
Out of season BUT
“A Partridge up a gum tree”
311 Bob. But our esteemed leader is taking the curtains down himself for a labour spring clean in 2008 !
312 AHM. Was Beaconsfield a rotten borough back then or did it fall to the whig (spit) landslide?
298. “I think you’ll find that most of the 1,000 were convicted of relatively minor crimes ”
Sexual Assault of Children, Kidnap, Rape, Murder…
Does Labour supporters’ party loyalty override all?
Do the people of Britain mean so little?
316 - A rotten borough of course, Jack. Anything to prevent the perfidious yellows and their ancestors getting their hands on us!
Despite CCs charming Estonian(descended)wife, tend to agree- “the clock is running”, however will certainly NOT go before next Thursday and he has a sufficient independent power base to hurt TB, unless “other options” are made available. Mind you a Labour peer, who had previously told me that CC was “the next PM” now says that we “should remember John Moore”- apparently not the hero of Corunna, but some proposed successor to Thatch.
317 - Hear, hear.
If Clarke was astute he would resign. Yes we know a lot of this did not happen on his watch (distracted ‘where’s that Nanny’s visa?’ Blunkett anyone?) But by going now he would establish himself as a man of honour - one way to stand out in the NuLab crowd….Gordon would bring him back….and if Anthony goes on and on he’d bring him back too - ask two strikes Mandy…..
Matthew JCG Partridge: I wondered how long before somebody made accusations of those sorts. This isn’t because they are foreign, or immigrants, or asylum seekers. It is because they are criminals who should have been deported and are now on the streets in our communities.
If the Tories said nothing, you’d accuse them of being timid or invisible. To say something is “playing the race card”.
Such attacks are quite pathetic and demean politics as a whole. The public are right to be concerned about this and attacks on the Tories won’t hide New Labour’s blushes.
[318] Well before the dodginess of Blair there was L-G, but the grandaddy of them all was Dizzy- ahem, Lord Beaconsfield. Apart from crippling the country with vainglory -the “Indian Empire”, I ask you- his sole claim to fame was humour: on his deathbed, he refused to see his monarch, she he crowned with tinsel: “She will only ask me to send a message to Albert”
21.
And two strikes Blunkett
I notice the government has made a complete mess of the tax credits for a second year.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4939186.stm
Then there is the farm payments fiasco.
If Clarke does go he ought to have company.
“I think you’ll find that most of the 1,000 were convicted of relatively minor crimes (let’s remember ‘assualt’ is a broad term covering offences from rape/manslaughter to a few angry words after closing hours). Of course a few of those will have been involved in very serious crimes but the media (and the Tories) have blown this out of proportion.”
Well, that’s remarkably reassuring.
323 -
Ahhhh! Those were the days, Jimmy 
325. It’s not all bad for the government though. At least the NHS is in such good shape after its best year ever.
[327] What was he like as a constituency MP?
Paxo claimed that foreign criminals were costing £280 million pa; 10,0000 x £28000 each. Also they’re taking up space in overcrowded prisons. quite a large number of female drug mules, I gasther. It would be far better to deport them straightaway but apparently the regulations don’t allow it at the moment. Also I suppose another country would have to agree to put them in prison in their own country otherwise they would be released onto the streets. I also wonder they could absurdly apply for asylum if threatened with deportation. Even when refused the process often takes years.
Interesting to hear Blunkett calling for heads to roll. I suppose his can’t roll a second time so he’s safe in sounding off.
The doo will really hit the fan if any of these people released have offended again…
Absolutely Matt but that is one of those things that everyone must pray doesn’t happen.
329 - Words would not sufficient to describe the unbridled joy of the experience
New poll in Sun (just reported on Sky)… Lab and Tories both on 30% - no other figures given, but BNP “increasing”.
334 - Which firm, Stephen?
290-Jack W
Talking about selective memories wasn’t it a Tory minister that resigned over the Buckingham Palace intruder,do the names of Britten,Carrington,Gilmour,Mellor,Parkinson ring any bells,or just selectively inconvenient?
Stephen, the Libdems should have a good result….or “others” are very high!
330 Bluemoon I thought the figure was 38k a head.
336 - No, I think Willie Whitelaw offered to resign but Mrs. T refused. Sir Ian Gilmour was fired - I think you are referring to Humphrey Atkins who joined Carrington in quitting over the Falkands.
They and Leon Brittan, who resigned over his role in the leaking of the Solictor General’s advice during the Westland Affair should indeed be the examples which Clarke should now follow.
339 - those who criticise Mandy for being allowed to go to Europe should remember that Brittan did too. For the record, I think that they both are / were excellent EU commissioners - although that is just in comparison to the others (including the UK’s Millen, Kinnock and Patten)
The Sky site only reports their own odd poll about the BNP.
335 - didn’t say, but the Sun’s usual pollster is Ipsos-Mori. (It was part of their paper preview.)
342, Stephen Tall, have you finally changed the photo on your mainpage? But no pavement photo!! Really disappointed!
Blue to win. I think you’re right!
337 - I’d guess so. If so, it would be encouraging news, taken with today’s ICM - but I don’t think it’s hugely significant at this stage of the cycle.
I wonder if this Sun poll is like the earlier Mirror ‘poll’?
346 - It sounds fishy to me, but we’ll see what the hard numbers are…
343 - Andrea, the Beech Rd pavement shot is now, by popular demand (well, 2 of you), in the mast-head. Very small.
Its probably just another ’sky is falling’ 30-30-30 poll like we had in late 2004. I wouldn’t worry too much about it.
SBS What was wrong with Chris Patten? He was an outstanding Commissioner.
298-Mathew in denial
‘I find it ironic that after much publicity about the ‘New Conservatives’ Cameron and co are playing the race and immigration card in exactly the same way Hague, Howard et al have done. I think this exposes the truth behind the ‘reformed’ Tories and shows exactly what a fraud David Cameron is. It’s not subtle, modern and (hopefully) it won’t be successful.’
With crass comments like these its no wonder the BNP is doing so well,are you seriously saying that because the criminals in question are illegal asylum seekers / immigrants,the main opposition party can’t talk about this issue?
So is Ming Campbell also playing the race card?As he was equally as vociferous as the Tory spokesmen in condeming this scandal.
Someone run out and buy an early edition of the Sun would you? I want to know about this poll…
348. Stephen, I see it now. Voters will be very pleased next time
352 - Still in the colonies, Chrisco?
The polls seem to be all over the place, they all can’t be right.
x55. Isn’t that always the way with polls? They are all right, its what they are right about that is the problem.
I tend to discount the impact of individual shock-horror stories, but that 30-30 poll sounds serious for both parties if true. Very curious.
356 - statistically, isn’t it the case that 95% of them are right within a m.o.e. +/-3%… which means 1 in 20 are utter rubbish…?
News 24 said 30/30/25/15 split (15 is others)
Just heard on News24 - Sun poll states Labour on 30, Tories on 30 and LibDems on .. 25! Others must be about 15, but how much is the BNP I didn’t hear properly as the 25 made my jaw drop.
358 - Does that 1 in 20 estimate apply to MORI? We might be forgiven in speculating that their rate might be closer to 1 in 1
59 - And astonishingly, Baxter says that would leave labour only two short of a majority.
Frankly, that’s a disgrace and an indictment of the useless electoral system that we have.
359 - Wow. If it’s MORI - is it their ‘certain to vote’ figure, or just the unadjusted data?
Rogue poll- particularly with the 15 others
64 - But it’s in line with Yougov regarding others and with ICM regarding a lib dem surge.
You can say that all polls are getting it wrong but you can’t dismiss it as a rogue.
second poll in a row with the Libdems doing well
If ICM were properly weighted Labour would have been lower and the Tories higher
Presumably we await confirmation that this pollster was indeed MORI?
If Printz were here he’d be having a field day over this. The BNP couldn’t be getting any better publicity and the timing of it all is incredibly synchronous.
Good grief, this has come out of the blue! I take it that the ‘15%’ is mostly BNP? Personally i am tempted to dismiss it as a rogue poll, as someone said above, but if its true, the elections next thursday will be mad!
Much as I welcome the poll, I suspect both the LDs and Others ratings are probably soft (especially Others). Though I don’t go in for the silly LD-votes-are-just-protest-votes over-simplification, clearly we’ve benefited from the current general pissed-offness of the public with Labour and Tories.
There’s an interesting parallel between what’s happening now - with the Cameron honeymoon being punctured by the BNP rise - and the eclipse of Howard’s brief honeymoon by Ukip in 2004.
In happier news… http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,4-2006190066,00.html
Well, well. I think part of the public has listened to Tories and Labour saying the other is rubbish and decided we’re both right. I think it has to be largely a protest vote against the big parties - I like Ming more than most non-LDs here but I don’t think even the LDs would claim he’s had a spectacular start. It’s incredibly volatile after months of stability, isn’t it?
An LD 2nd place in Moray must be on the cards.
371, 373, Possibly, possibly. But with just a week to go before millions actually cast real votes, Prudence (bless her) is surely advising caution on the big picture implications of these 3 most recent polls, which in very important respects are contradicting each other.
371 - this is the second poll recently showing 15% others. The UKIP vote in 2004 was said to damage the Tories - but any temporary rise in BNP support is also hitting Labour. Labour weren’t as low as 30% in any of THOSE polls!
Polls like these show how desperately this country needs PR.
375 - So if the BNP is indeed polling 7% plus in the polls, they should get 7% plus of seats at Westminster. I think not, I really do!
Of course, my post @376 should read 7% of the votes.
Nick Palmer Well, well. I think part of the public has listened to Tories and Labour saying the other is rubbish and decided we’re both right.
So the plan is the same. Say the Tories are just as bad as us in Nulab and anyway they did it first, yah, boo, sucks. Your ancient outriders were at that earlier this evening.
I don’t think its working. People are not daft.
And of course, the Nulab PPB on Thursday will not be unremittingly negative, will it?
378 Ahhhh, I must remember to switch the italics off.
No, better still, switch this machine off.
Why does YouGov compared to ICM seem so interested in the BNP?
Maybe Peter Kellner can tell us.
There was a Yougov poll on sky claiming that 60% of people support BNP policies until they are told that they are the BNP’s.
373 - On the other hand, as show the “polls of polls” which Jack W posted here a while ago, the support of the LDs have grown slowly but steadily since Ming was elected leader. He might not be a spectacular orator, but he seems to inspire confidence, and maybe that’s what the voters want after all the scandals?
Let’s get this in perspective. Even if this poll can be considered seriously (which it shouldn’t) according to my formula - taking into account the other polls - Labour should have a majority (albiet tiny). I still think a hung parliament (let alone a conservative victory) is inconcievale.
Btw: 85% of the prisoners mentioned were NOT recommended for deportation by the trial judge and the number of serious criminals is about 25%. I think this proves how much the scandal is a storm in a teacup and a cynical attempt by the Tories (and also by the Lib Dems - who are not averse to similar tatics themselves) to play the race card.
Buy your Prescott Commemorative Thong here http://www.cafepress.com/barsteward
83 - I’m sorry but wanting a government to be elected on 30% of the vote is immoral. Only someone with contempt for democracy could say otherwise.
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