Were the pollsters the other losers on Thursday?
February 10th, 2006
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How do you square Dunfermline with the national polls?
According to the latest round of surveys from all the main pollsters Labour is performing at or above what it got at the May 2005 General Election. Yet on Thursday its support collapsed and we saw such a massive swing to the Liberal Democrats - which has been recording drops of upto 10 points on last year.
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From what I can gather Dunfermline was the first occasion in modern times when the governing party has lost a Westminster by-election when its poll ratings were ahead of what it got in the preceding General Election.
When Labour lost Brent East in September 2003 its ICM rating that month was 35% - seven points less than it recorded at the 2001 General Election. So clearly it had a struggle on its hands.
Labour had the same 35% ICM poll rating ten months later at Leicester South in July 2004 when the Lib Dems took the seat.
Going back through the Tory years I cannot find a single by-election loss by them to either Labour or the Liberals/Lib Dems/SDP when the party was recording higher poll ratings than at the preceding General Election.
Of course there are local factors in all by-elections but the national picture, as represented by the poll rating must count for something. And, indeed, this by-election was totally exceptional.
The answer, I believe, might lie with the way the pollsters have “processed” the Labour vote since the General Election and this needs looking at. The weightings given Labour declarers in their surveys might be too high. This is something that we will continue to watch.
Mike Smithson
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“Going back through the Tory years I cannot find a single by-election loss to either Labour or the Liberals/Lib Dems/SDP when the party was recording higher poll ratings than at the preceding General Election”
I think Labour was polling higher than the 1987’s GE when they lost Glasgow Govan to the SNP.
Andrea 1 - I am talking about governing parties which Labour was not in 1987.
2.Ah, ok, sorry. After posting, I realized that maybe you were interested just in the ruling party.
A general question on by-elections:-
Why do terminally ill MPs hang on in their seats? If I was terminally ill, I would retire from my job. Is there some pension issue here? Do their dependants not get such good pension rights if they step down before dying?
5. I like a bit of black humour SBS but really….
5 - No, Fred, it’s a serious point.
1- Special factors worked in Govan the SNP did better than the winner lastnight in Dunfermline coming from 4th to 1st due to the poll tax. The Labour voters returned it back to Labour despite the SNP’s poll rating increasing by 50% between elections 14% to 22%.
Local conditions produce results against the trend. By-election that I have watched and seen for over 40 years have produced some strange and wonderful victories for various parties Glasgow Pollock -Tory Win Camermarthen 1966 Plaid Cymru -Hamilton 1967- SNP Lincoln 1972 Dick Traverne - Crosby - Croydon North West- etc
It may be that a large number of Labour supporters stay at home rather than vote for a government seemingly intent on riding roughshod over its natural constituency.
5: Heck - why don’t they go the whole hog and jump in front of a train too, save everyone a lot of trouble? X(
I would imagine it’s because doing so would be akin to accepting death, which is as unreasonable a thing to ask a politician to do as it is anyone else.
*scratches head* I’m sure SBS’s post was at 5 when I saw it first…
I can’t really see Mike’s point in this post - by-elections seem to follow rules of their own with little relevance to GEs, look at Uxbridge. The government gets thumped from time to time and the precise relationship between the thumping and the exact national level of support seem to me to be less important than the fact it happens in the first place.
9. A bit too harsh IMO.
Indeed there do seem to be many dodgy polls around just at present. But surely the issue is that voters are less attached to their parties nowadays.
Attempting to poll the whole country in a 1000/2000 people sample won’t pick up much in the way of geographical differences.
With no tory revival in Scotland is there a greater revival elsehwhere? Are opposition figures artificially depressed as voters choose to support ‘anyone but labour’? If so, are they choosing according to who is in second place in their seat?
13 You’re right about tactical voting and regional differences making a big differene. IMO the polls do give a fairly accurate countrywide position of the parties. However, as plugging the current figures into Baxter shows, % vote nationwide doesn’t mean a lot in FPTP.
Dennis Skinner is still in disbelief. He said it’s the biggest by-election he has ever seen in his life:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4702468.stm
His theory is a bit strange (not as strange as Nicola Sturgeon claim that LD won because SNP increased its vote).
Naturally Labourites are accusing LD of dirty tricks.
15.”it’s the biggest by-election he has ever seen ”
I left out “upset”
15 The BBC has kindly compiled a couple lists of major by-election upsets. Statistically I think Bermondsey 1983 is the real stand out!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4700080.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_westminster_hour/4075021.stm
I don’t think you can expect by-election results to follow the national poll trend much.
In many constituencies there is a latent potential vote for the Lib Dems IF they can convince voters that they are the challengers.
Voters know they are not changing the Government, the campaign is much more focussed on the individual candidates and local issues, the Lib Dems are able to match the other parties on resources.
In a ’safe’ seat the party that holds the seat can be at a disadvantage because its local party structure is often weak, having not had to fight hard previously.
I think opinion polls go through phases of accuracy - where there is considerable churn (or a loosening of various party ties) polls fail to pick the trends until too late.
1992 the polls got it badly wrong becuase they didn’t recognise the fluidity of the situation. I think we’re in a similarly fluid situation at the moment - the party ties are there but just a bit looser than they have been. It’s why the Lib Dems can bounce between low 20s and mid teens and (no doubt) back again within a few weeks.
It means everything is to play for but the decisive, sizemic shift hasn’t happened yet in the way it did for Labour in 1993-5.
Nothing really has changed other than voters are probably less attached to all parties (which is also a function of distance from the next general election).
19 - Good evening all. Just back from a week in Argyll and have missed all the excitement! A few quick observations - obviously excellent for the LD’s, very bad for the Nats and Labour and OK for us (although obviously it would have been nice to have gone up a bit). Don’t think anyone expected much better or much worse.
From a Scottish point of view we want to see the SNP and Labour doing as badly as possible given the paucity (outwith my own area) of Lib Dem/ Tory fights. I have no idea what all this means for the future by the way!
Doubt many of you would have seen Politics Now on STV on Thursday. But Nicola Sturgeons performance was cringeingly bad. The SNP could be in big trouble come 2007.
20.”very bad for the Nats and Labour and OK for us (although obviously it would have been nice to have gone up a bit).”
I disagree the result was so bad for SNP. If their result was bad, well, your one wasn’t better.
15 “not as strange as Nicola Sturgeon claim that LD won because SNP increased its vote”
Could be at least part of the reason if the SNP took votes from Labour that the Lib Dems couldn’t.
22. yes, but it could have made sense if LD had won by 2%, but they won for more than 5% in the end.
21 Dunfermline was always *highly* unlikely to go Tory this decade. The SNP however might have hoped to at least build a respectable position to get the seat at the GE, if they couldn’t win this time. Finishing 4th in a no-hoper of a seat is a lot less worrying than finishing 3rd in a seat you’d like to be challenging for!
24. Anna, I think the SNP got their best result there in a Westminster election.
21 - Andrea we’re not claiming we’re going to win the next Scottish election with twenty extra first past the post seats. Compared to past by-elections it’s historically poor for the Nats. It’s also about how it will be reported the Scottish press is alleady playing this up as a bad SNP result.
26. Ah, Max, but I consider their claim just spin (like the LD claiming to become the official opposition last year).
I didn’t expect a better result for SNP.
25 True, but there is no point in getting a good result at one election if you cannot then build on it… That is why the result is worse for the SNP than the Tories. Realistically we had nothing to gain and didn’t lose much, the SNP had a chance to become the main challengers, if not the winners.
28. Actually I think they had a hope to become the main challenger just in the first week.
The press liked to talk about LD in meltdown, but they just exagerated things to create a story.
I doubt that more than 1% of Dunfermline voters cared about Hughes’ sexual orientation. And I doubt that many people actually knew who Oaten was. They probably read about him on the NOTW and recalled him for a week (before the new sex exposure of some soap star/football player). I got the impression Charlie was an assett there.
The rest of the leadership campaign was actually pretty good for the LD.
26 - That’s fair enough but the SNP claim to be the biggest party at Holyrood is/was more achievable than a the Lib Dem’s forming the official opposition.
To make progress they need a bit of momentum which they are badly lacking. Consequently rather than gaining seats they are in danger of losing three of their current FPTP seats come 2007.
30. yes, they’re not having a big momentum behind them. But I’m not sure which party will have it next year. Everything could change in a year (just think about the LDs!)
26- most of the press and media people (Brian Taylor Douglas Fraser etc).do not like the SNP at all and you can see it on TV here. However despite the result yesterday most people (non political) here in Dundee said it was tactical voting and they would have done the same if you they in that seat. If the seat had been Dundee West then they (SNP) would have been the vehicle for tactical voting. Courses for horses I think. Over confidence can be disappointing in the long run. I am old enough to realise that politics is like a game. You win some, you lose some.
29 Yes, hats off to the Lib Dems for a stunner of a campaign.
WRT the effect of the leadership campaign. There’s no such thing as bad publicity. Besides, I don’t think that minor sex scandals really have tremendous power to shock anymore…
30 Which ones? I think the SNP will gain Dundee West. The sitting MSP does not have much of a positive following at all, The SNP are at last organised in that constituency and have a good election team. Shona Robison is very popular in Dundee East and has a very a good reputation as a workaholic MSP so I see her increasing her tiny majority.
33. I wonder how many NOTW readers, when reading the Oaten’s 3 in bed session, thought “who the hell is this Oaten? A soap actor?”
32 - I think their is some truth in that. I’ve no doubt that had the contest been in Dumfries & Galloway or, as you say, Dundee West the outcome would have been different. Having said that the Lib Dem campaign, irrespective of whether you approve of it, was considerably better run than anyone elses so I’m not sure it’s fair to say it’s all tactical voting.
34 - Perth, Inverness and Ochil. In order of likliehood. FWIW I would be surprised if the SNP didn’t pick up the Western Isles.
35 I wonder how many NOTW buyers actually read it…
I think liberal/lib dems have always had their best by-election results when they have felt threatened (which is fairly often, sadly).
But this is well up there - with four party politics in Scotland getting a good two party swing can be quite difficult.
Specifically hasn’t there been a YouGov poll in Scotland recently which had us (apparently) near meltdown and the Tories thriving? I am less and less convinced by You Gov.
37. isn’t there a first incumbency effect in Scottish Parliament elections too (re Ochil)?
4. If an MP dies in office their nominated spouse ( if any ) gets a death benefit equal to three times their annual salary. Clearly this does not apply to an MP who stands down in the normal way at a general election or otherwise resigns.
34 Fergus Ewing has a good personal vote so would discount the loss of Inverness. Differnent boundaries. Perth will be a close run thing but Roseanna has won against the trend for a while. Ochil depends on whether George Reid is standing again -if so they won’t be standing there. I don’t know anything about the situation in WI - Angus Brendan McN surprise win makes predictions unwise.
42. “Differnent boundaries.”
will there be new boundaries in the 2007 elections? I missed it
40 - Labour are organising their in a way they’re not in places like Ed Pentlands and South and apparently have hopes of winning. The real incubency boost could go to Labour as the awful Dr Richard Simpson won’t be standing again. It’s also perhaps questionable as to how much of an incumbency bonus there is for a list MP in 1999 winning a constituency seat in 2003.
O?TI also noticed that Jack was saying that LD defections were likely. I hope he wasn’t pulling our leg by reffering to the Hon. member for Vancouver-Kingsway!
43 - Yes and no Andrea. They aren’t the same as Westminster but are the same as those for the 2003 elaction. All a bit confusing!
43 No same boundaries for 2003 election - not the new Westminster boundaries that came in to being in 2005
45. Ah, ok, thanks. It’s what I’ve understood.
For those who were here a few days ago BBC Nottinghamshire have closed the poll… Nick Palmer came 4th!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/nottingham/content/image_galleries/nottinghamshire_mps_gallery.shtml?8
48. So the finale standing for Nottinghamshire sexiest MP was:
1)Alan Simpson
2)Patrick Mercer
3)Vernon Coaker
4)Nick Palmer
5)Ken Clarke
6)Paddy Tipping
7)Geoff Hoon
8)John Mann
9)Alan Meale
Graham Allen
John Heppel
49 It’s cruel, but “None of the above” came 2nd with 180 votes…
Hi everyone,
I just wanted to make a broad comment on several posts Ive read over the past few days.
Although a lot has been made of Camerons showing at PMQs this week, I’d like to refer everyone to Tony Blairs early showings against John Major. Everyone is allowed a bad week and considering Camerons somewhat meteoric rise, I think he was due an off day.
Andrea - I see in that BBC article cllr Nick Forbes said Dunfermline and West Fife was “a difficult seat, in terms of not being a traditional Labour seat”. Classic!
Is Bootle the only one left now?
50. Blairites could claim it’s all a rebels plot. It must be investigated how many times Christine Shawcroft votes!
53 Did Ginger La Grange provide the 4 votes to keep Nick Palmer ahead of Ken Clarke?
52. The old Dunfermline West was a marginal back in the horrible (for Labour) 1983, but pretty safish already in 1987.
54. Just one!
56 And the other three were presumably Clare then? BTW I see that Ming’s campaign still haven’t audited their supporter’s list…
57. The list is probably updated by some young Libdem who doesn’t know that name.
Do you think Alan Simpson should feature that poll in his election leaflets? Something like ” Only your Nottingham sex bomb could keep the tories out here”
Excellent post Max (33 on my machine). We don’t usually agree on things. But from what I have seen from down here (I couldn’t get away to he help this time), Willie’s campaign was well run and pretty positive actually. Willie personally has many friends both in Scotland and in the South and South West who wanted to work for him - so I think there was an element of ‘personal positive vote’ too. Of course local factors come into play, but reports from others who had been up said that the SNP campaign had little ‘zing’.
I don’t think that people should be under any disillusions - this result was good for only one party today. To gain another MP and to be top of the news with a positive story is exactly what the Liberal Democrats needed.
It is hugely bad for Labour - and particularly GB. It is negative for the Tories - only because Cameron has trailed that it was going to be a test of his electoral appeal - to tweak GB in his own backyard - and it is not good for the SNP who claimed that they were in second.
In reality there are only 2 good results in a by election. 1. Taking a seat / holding well - i.e. “good win”. 2. Strong advances into ‘challenging’ second place. Trying to talk up anything else is just spin.
58 I’m sure there’ll be bar charts galore…
Well I’d like to apologise. At about midnight last night I said there was no way the Lib Dems could win with a 48% turnout. Afterall all the previous high turnouts by elections had been Labour wins (e.g. Hartlepool) and the low turnouts lib dems. I have only to plead in my defence that I have worked (as a lib dem) on something like eight by elections, three sets of local elections and two general elections and a number of local by elections. Clearly I am learning very slowly.
Yet again I take my hat off to the Lib Dem by election team. Has there ever been a by election won by a party which doesn’t have a leader? How about by a party that has recently suffered a big fall in support and been written off in favour of its opponents? In fact how many swings of more than 16% have there been since WWII? My recollection is about 25 - so the Lib Dems can pull off a historically good result in these circumstances - no wonder I’ve had a smile on my face all day.
And I won £100. But I had also given £100 to Rennie’s campaign - so I’m evens.
59.”In reality there are only 2 good results in a by election. 1. Taking a seat / holding well - i.e. “good win”. 2. Strong advances into ‘challenging’ second place. Trying to talk up anything else is just spin”
there’re people who have different opinions and it’s not just spin. I couldn’t care less of spinning for the SNP.
60. Anna, maybe when/if Simpson runs for the leadership, he’ll run a campaign based that he’s the only one who could challenge Cameron in terms of sex appeal!
A shitless Simpson addressing a crowd of leftwing women (Abbott, Mahon, Riordan and Clark)…..
62 Did you miss an r in there somewhere? (last line)
63. Oh, yes!
I’m sure Simpson has not Oaten’s habits!
64 We must all hope so! :-O
62 I think Stewart Lewis could probably run that campaign… Don’t know whether it would be such a great line for any other candidate. What slogan are you going to have when you run for the Jacobites?
65. any other poll?
Ian McCartney admitted he was obese!
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,1706755,00.html
I have to say that I agree with Paul Lloyd’s sentiments (59), but Andrea’s analysis (62).
Only one party won in Dunfermline and West Fife. But there are times when just holding onto your vote can be seen as pretty good in the circumstances.
I don’t actually think the SNP will see much of a silver-lining here.
Perhaps the more interesting point going forward is the impact it might have on the coalition in Scotland.
67 ?
68. I gave my marks yesterday:
LD: great
Lab: terrible
SNP: average/decentish
Con: it could have been worse
SSP: horrible
69. ?
71 “any other poll?” What???
68 - I suspect it will become increasingly strained. I can’t see Labour MP’s in particular putting up with being attacked by the Lib Dems at Westminster contests on issues like tolls and hospitals in spite of the fact that these are issues of devolved government.
72. about sexiest MPs in other areas? something like “sexy MP in North London”!
73. David Mundell said something similar about Labour being furious.
Yes - I basically agree - but I think SNP and Tories would have had as their number one objective to stop us lib dems winning. If I am to be cynical, this is why Livingston was so much better for us than Dunfermline and West Fife for them. But certainly they didn’t get squeezed out.
74 None that I know of… Who would you vote for in North London? Galloway?
74 - sexiest MP in Rutland? And no, its not Dinky (LDs will know who I mean
)
MC Pav singin’ in da Italia House …
76.”If I am to be cynical, this is why Livingston was so much better for us than Dunfermline and West Fife for them”
I think it’s the opposite. Dunfermline was much better for you than Livingston for them.
A difference between Dunfermline and Livingston (in terms of Labour performance) is that anything so negative for Labour has happened between GE and the by-election in Livingston.
They elected Cook, then there were the holidays and then they were already voting again.
74/77 Found a poll that has closed…
http://www.rainbownetwork.com/fun/detail.asp?iData=22583&iCat=110&iChannel=20&nChannel=Fun
Ann Widdecombe came second!
76 - TBH as I said above the Lib Dem’s winning is more preferable than the SNP given the constituency contests in Scotland at Westminster and Holyrood.
81. Anna, it’s old. Dinky must be angry about trailing Widdy among gay sex icons!
The battle for last place between Howard and Mandy was fascinating!
79.”MC Pav singin’ in da Italia House …”
translation, please!
83 I know it’s old. Yougov must have done a more recent one, which google finds you quoting…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/09/27/the-balls-back-in-blairs-court/
“20. I don’t trust Yoygov anymore since their yesterday’s poll showing Boris Johnson and Sarah Teather as UK sexiest politicians.
by Andrea September 27th, 2005 at 10:36 am “
Evening all
I’m afraid I think the by-election result last night probably does now show an overrepresentation of Labour in the polls, more an unwillingness of Labour voters to turn out for their party.
Have justed watched the QT from last night (I do love the beeb website!). I think they all performed quite well, although Hughes was annoying me a tad by the end of the hour, but I’m no fan of his so that was bound to happen.
Huhne still lacks any real x-factor, but I think he is coming across increasingly well. It was nice to hear more about tackling poverty from the three of them, as well as hearing innovative ideas about how to do so.
IMO Dunfermline was only really a success for us, and was only a failure for Labour. But I think Cameron would have liked to have had more of a showing, and the SNP need to pick up their game if they are to challenge the other parties next year, but it was not terrible for either one of them.
85. yes, I’m still trying to understand how someone could think Teather is sexy!
I suppose she could top the North London poll (but her female competition is Featherstone, Abbott and Glenda).
84 - Pavarotti opening the Winter Olympics
85 remarkable
87 She does at least have age on her side… Boris Johnson puzzles me a bit, although thinking of all the MPs I can picture, it’s not so surprising…
88. I think he closed them!
91. I mean he closed the opening cerimony tonight
Was it showed in UK too?
92 BBC 2 is going to show “more than 100 hours” of olympic action… which is quite a lot when we only have 1 or 2 medal chances…
91 yes on the BBC
90. She has Villiers too in a north London constituency.
Btw, my pick for a North London MP is Nick Hurd.
90. They aint the best looking bunch are they? The impression about Boris I have got from my female friends up here is that his stupidity and general ditsyness plays into their sympathy.
I don’t understand the Ann Widdecombe vote, the concept of her…NO, I will not have those mental images!
93/94. Thanks.
I quite liked the opening cerimony overall(not very much the beginning, more the final part)
96. The Widdy vote was a joke, I think (I hope!).
Loved her description.
51 - Good point. Nick Robinson had a news report from Blair’s first encounter with Major at PMQs put on the BBC website, and linked to it on his blog; Blair’s performance was in some ways very simular to the first time we saw Cameron at PMQs.
59 - Very fair anaylsis. A drop in the vote for the Tories is clearly a negative, but in should be put in the context of a severe tactical squeeze, and the area being hardly friendly to the Conservatives. Scotland is clearly going to be the hardest part of the UK to crack for the Tories for obvious reasons. It is a good thing we don’t need a massive breakthrough in Scotland for some sort of majority.
98. Phew! Would be interesting to see a genuine poll.
96 - Boris is not ditsy. He’s very ruthless. Remember Petronellagate?
101. Ok, his perceived ditsyness. I know some staunch anti-Tories who still think he is quite sweet (?!). Though less so since the Liverpool thing.
100. There weren’t great other choices in that poll.
I wonder how much of the 2% Mandelson got came from Brazil!
From Iain Dale’s blog:
Three soldiers’ bodies returned home today from Iraq. There was no government minister in attendance. What an indictment of this sorry lot of charlatans that purport to govern our country. There are four Ministers at the Ministry of Defence - Dr John Reid, Adam Ingram MP, Don Touhig and Lord Drayson. No doubt they were at the New Labour Spring Jolly in Blackpool with the Dear Leader. They should hang their heads in shame.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com
I can only say “hear hear”!
The weekend after Brent East the Lib Dems hit 30%.
Will the same happen this weekend. It would n’t suprise me to see a poll saying 25%, but I tend to be cautious!
This has turned the May election situation again and brought back the scenario of the Lib dems controlling or being the largest party in the northern cities of Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds,Sheffield, Newcastle and Hull. That would be a big boost for them
95 I think I’d plump for Nick Hurd too…
101 Tabman, bumbling on the outside, cunning on the inside? Never considered him in that light before… Starts to explain how he would win the poll…
Ah, well bed for me… Good night, sleep well, try not to think about AW too much, Tistoph.
103 Your boyfriends, Andrea?
78.”sexiest MP in Rutland? And no, its not Dinky (LDs will know who I mean )”
Tabman, ok that Lidbems are winning here verywhere, but are there any other MPs in Rutland other than Dunky?
107. Who? What? How?
[87] Andrea, there’s a rumour that Meg Hillier is also female. But maybe you count her as an East London MP. Or maybe the poll is older than the last GE…
106 - Anna, you’ve led a sheltered life. This is the man who impregnated one of his colleagues, who he then “persuaded” to have a termination (being married with 4 children - and I can’t recall John Redwood calling for him to resign as an MP). He also wrote a hatchet piece about Conrad Black after his fall, who famously indulged him in allowing him to remain Se-xtator editor and MP at the same time.
108 - a former MP for Rutland.
88 - Pavarotti really is excellent, isn’t he? A credit to my age demographic!
110. Innocent Aboard, actually there’re more female MPs in North London (Villiers, Karen Buck,…). I just named the first name which passed through my mind!
Pardon me, but I still struggle to recall all London MPs in 2 seconds.
111 - Any particular reason why persuaded is in quoatation marks. What are you actually alledging and do you have a shred of eidence to back it up?
113. AHM, should I remind you that your age demographic produced Glenda too?
116 - True, but we can’t all be as talented as Pavarotti and I, Andrea.
117. well, Glenda was pretty good in her field. 2 Oscars aren’t nothing, even if I’m not that sure she deserved the one won for “A touch of class” (but I don’t recall who her main opponents were). She was better in “Sunday, Bloody Sunday”.
She was the first actress to win an oscar for an interpretation that required a naked scene.
110:- Slightly chubby.
118 - Perhaps, but have you seen some of the people they give Oscars to these days?
Makes one wonder if they have any value at all…
115 - Max, only because I couldn’t remember the details. It was alleged by the Mail on Sunday that he paid for it.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,9061,1351098,00.html
120. Alistair, are you preferring the good old times?
I think Glenda didn’t go to the cerimony to retire her oscars.
At least she didn’t deliver a controversial speech a la Vanessa Redgrave and her “Zionist hoodlums”
Has anyone noticed that this Labour ‘Spring’ conference is not actually being held in Spring. Is there no limit to their mendacity?
I am unreliably informed that Sarah Teather’s looks are the least sexy thing about her; that her intelligence and empathy with others make her attractive. But I’ve never met her.
120 - Naturally, I’m a Tory!
That and her enormous norks.
125. Come on, at least admit she was a decent actress!
127 - That would mean telling a lie! You really can’t expect me to do that… :O
123. Labour determines the seasons now?! When did that go through parliament? Another thing to add to my petitioning list!
http://www.dumpdee.co.uk
cruel satire
128. well, have you seen some of her films (I think Elizabeth R was very popular)?
at least admit she’s far better than Adam Rickitt!
131 - Yes, I can agree with that!
130. I read the part about the by-election
132. not a great effort!
Max at 36 - not sure if I understood your post - are you saying the SNP are likely to hold Inverness next year?
If so - I think you are very wrong. It’s about 90% certain to be a Lib Dem gain.
However I may just have picked you up wrongly as I’m celebrating one of the best weeks ever to be both a Liberal and a Hibs supporter…
134 No -he didn’t I did.
Goodnight and have a good weekend all
70. How can the worst SNP % vote in a Westminster by-election since 1991 be a “decentish” performance?
The spin the SNP gave last night was that they were starting in 3rd place, but they were in 3rd because their 2005 GE election result was their worst since 1987.
As for the Tories, the last time they took power (in 1979) they polled 30% in Dunfermline.
137. how did you rate your result in Livingston?
considering your post, I suppose bad (one of the worst by-election LD results in the last decade)
30. “Consequently rather than gaining seats they (i.e. SNP) are in danger of losing three of their current FPTP seats come 2007.”
Only 3, Max? I think Inverness, Aberdeen North, Dundee East, Perth and Ochil are all vulnerable. Though the Western Isles might go in their favour.
138. Insert 5 years instead of decade, because in the 1997 parliament the LD lost % in some by-elections.
134 - The exact opposite Dan - I was sugesting it was unlikely the SNP would hold it.
[123] It’s Spring by the (traditional) Chinese calendar IIRC…
139 - I think Dundee East is probably OK and they may do OK in Aberdeen North if Alex Salmond spends a lot of time in the area. His decision to stand in Godrdon does seem increasingly bizarre however.
and the Irish calendar apparently:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_calendar
139. Are you implying that Labour will go well or that the LDs will win some of those seats from third (or fourth) place?
145 - Lib Dems I would guess. They held it up till 1997 and it tends to produce very tight 3&4 way marginals. A bit like TE&L in my part of the world.
138. Decentish
14% in Livingston - a seat with no Lib Dem councillors.
Compare with previous results of 8% in Anniesland, 3% in Hamilton South, 3% in Falkirk West etc.
142 and 144. An invasion of foreign calenders!
Best not tell SeanT!
This year it certainly shouldnt be a Spring conference for Labour; Winter is a far more accurate description.
(sorry, being partisan again)
147. well, I rated decentish too.
I posted before this by-election, what results I would have considered good/bad for every party and I still stick with it.
I asked others to do it, but no-one else did.
It was just to prevent some LD posters of their usual annoying spin.
146. Max, I suppose they don’t think to win Dundee East too!
146 - I still remember the classic 1992 result in Inverness, when all four main Scottish parties acheived a 3.4% range between the Tories on 22.6% and Sir Russell on 26.0%. Why did Sir Russell never make Inverness reasonably safe for Liberalism?
147. Ah, btw, you’ve too look at the change of %, not to the overall result! In Anniesland you increased your vote.
Looking at the result, you would always poll better in North East Fife than Banff and Buchan even if you fall by 10% in the first and rise 10% in the second!
150. I don’t know anything about him, but maybe he wasn’t such a great MP
61. Rob. ‘Has there ever been a by election won by a party which doesn’t have a leader?’
The opposite, I think - clearly the more leaders the better. Can we keep all four?
Are we sure the Venerable Helen and Pete Burns are 2 differen people?
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41122000/jpg/_41122965_helenclark203.jpg
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006060723,,00.html
152 - Sir Russell held the seat and its predecessor uninterrupted between 1964 and 1992, and was generally the most high-profile Scottish Liberal (apart from Grimond and Steel, naturally) until the beginning of the 1990s - he’s in the Lords now. With the seat’s Liberal heritage, you’d expect him to build up a subtantial majority.
145. I think the SNP will do badly, rather than Labour well.
The LDs now have MPs representing the whole of the Inverness seat.
Aberdeen North looks a 3-way fight. The LDs represent 1/3 and Labour 2/3 of Aberdeen North at Westminster.
The boundaries of Holyrood Dundee East are worse for the SNP than Westminster Dundee East (which includes part of Holyrood Angus).
I think Ochil depended on George Reid’s personal vote.
Perth should be a top Tory target.
140. It was virtually 5 years from Falkirk West to Livingston!
155. Interesting. I just looked at the results in the 1983-1992 period. The tories were always in the 20s. Labour did bad in 1983 and recovered in 1987 (the 1987 election was pretty good for Labour in Scotland with some gains IIRC) taking away votes from him.
In 1992 the SNP did well gaining ground at LD’s expenses with Con and Lab not moving very much.
156.”140. It was virtually 5 years from Falkirk West to Livingston! ”
there’re some seats outside Scotland too, you know, the world doesn’t finish there!
Andrea @ 149 “It was just to prevent some LD posters of their usual annoying spin.”
Why, who could you mean….I think the people in true spin overdrive today have been Labour “Of course the Lib Dems do well in by elections, but they never make any progress at General Elections” - has anyone told them that in 1970 the Liberal Party had 6 seats and now the Lib Dems have 10 times more. It may have taken time, but it cannot be denied that it is progress.
As for the Tories - they have tried to keep their heads down today. May actually be wise - but it is amazing - as they have had something ‘new’ to say on every other day since Cameron was elected.
Good article by Matthew Parris on the by-election and potential consequences of it in The Times today: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2034633,00.html
This in the Scotsman It appeared not only as if the by-election was Labour’s to lose, but, thanks to the Chancellor, it was doing a pretty good job at achieving that.
Ouch!
78, 108 & 112 - Andrea, I think Tabman is referring to the distinguished former Liberal MP for Rutland South-West who served as a backbencher in the governments of Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman and Herbert Asquith and was first elected to Parliament 100 years ago this month. He is still very active in the Liberal cause.
162 - A statesman and a scholar. No idea whom he is backing for the leadership although they say His Lordship has grave concerns over Sir Menzies’ youth and inexperience.
I prefer his son, Viscount Barking
160- Parris has a great writing style, but he’s not a great political writer (like he wasn’t a great politician).
Though I often like Matthew Parris like many disciples of a particular party he sometimes lets his desire to proselytize get in the way of his talent as a writer. Recently, since Cameron came along he’s allowed his objectivity to disappear altogether. In some ways it’s a shame. Max Hastings can still be very entertaining and as blue as they come but I don’t get that queasy feeling that he’s trying too hard to sell me something.
160 - No doubt all three candidates will be making the journey to his lordship’s estate in SW Rutland knowing that many party members are still waiting for a sign as to which of them he will effectively annoint as the next leader.
Sorry 163 not 160.
162. Dean, I’ve never seen a photo of him, but could he really pass Dinky?
169 - Well I’ve met them both and they each have their attractions, but as a former member of the Rutland & Melton Liberal Democrat constituency party you will understand that I have to favour his lordship. Besides he once bought me a drink at the Three Swans Hotel in Market Harborough.
170. but is he still alive?
171 - Alive and, I understand, kicking.
171 - Absolutely. As you will see from this link he played a full role in the Lib Dem campaign at last year’s GE.
http://www.bonkers.hall.btinternet.co.uk/archive34.htm
His ability to cut to the heart of any issue is legendary. On electoral reform, “I also hear from the draughtier side of Hadrian’s Wall that we have captured Inverness, Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey, yet gained only one Member of Parliament for our pains. This hardly seems fair, and once again the case for electoral reform is strenghthened.”
His lordship also has his own website.
http://www.bonkershall.btinternet.co.uk/
172. It’s impossible!
You’re making fun of me.
155 etc re Inverness.
Remember that personality plays a large part in Highland politics and the combination of known local man (Dave Stewart) and the incoming tide of Labour helped secure the seat for Labour in 1997. As someone observed though, “he came in on Blair’s tide and he’ll be taken out by it.”
I think Fergus does have a a considerable personal following but not sure how strong his local organisation is to withstand an assault by the Liberals in 2007. I also sense that he is somewhat to the right of his party and I’m not sure how this plays with the activists.
The Liberals will have to come from fourth place in 2007 owing to the fact that (I believe) the candidate and party didn’t much like each other in 2003, resulting in a poor effort all round. They will have rectified this this time round but still, they will have to bend over backwards to prove that ‘only the Lib dems can win here’ etc etc - I’ll bring you news of the first shifty use of figures in a bar chart to prove this when it is to hand.
A quick question that hopefully someone can answer here…
Do any of the pollsters publish voting intention polls broken down by region?
I’ve never seen a photo of Lord Bonkers but this is a hand-drawn effort from one of those charicaturists they sometimes have at Conference:
http://www.bonkers.hall.btinternet.co.uk/bonkers.jpg