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Ed Miliband could be in trouble in Doncaster

November 26th, 2014




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From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage, renationalising the railways and the death penalty

November 26th, 2014

The polling’s certainly unique though I’m unsure about what it tells us



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Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the most likely

November 26th, 2014

No surprise there then but a big challenge for the coalition

The chart is based on aggregate data for Populus polls last month and is broadly in line with what we seen from other pollsters. Those currently saying they’ll vote UKIP have the most negative views about the recovery.

Given that both coalition partners will be trying to claim credit for what’s happened this message is going to be hard to get across to the biggest group of swing voters.

The Tories used the Rochester campaign to test some of the messaging that we are likely to see next May though clearly that was a by-election when the government of the country was not at stake at GE15 it it will be very different.

The art is not to over-claim but try to get over that they know what they are doing and any change could be dangerous. They have a “plan” as ministers keep on saying.

The Tories must be encouraged by the way that Osborne’s ratings have progressed so much in the past year but whether he is able to find the formula that resonates with Kipper switchers is far from clear.

The Labour rhetoric is likely to acknowledge that there has been a recovery but for the few not the many.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Nighthawks is now open

November 25th, 2014

Home of the web’s best political conversation

If you’re Footloose, and fancy free tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, don’t worry, delurking isn’t the Highway to The Danger Zone.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)

  1. The spiral of silence in polling
  2. Has Theresa May just declared war on Downing Street? The Home Secretary no longer seems to fear the PM’s wrath
  3. The Conservatives won’t win by banging on. And on. And on. And on. And on and on and on about Europe.
  4. Liverpool must back Rodgers and Labour must back Miliband
  5. Labour neglects English marginal seats at its peril – it can’t just appeal to its “heartlands. Labour does best in places worst hit by the recession, but it has to branch out to enlarge its electoral base.
  6. Our political landscape is not changing anywhere near as much as we assume it is. With the Ukip rise, the Green surge, and the soaring of the SNP, it’s easy to get carried away and think we’re heading towards some sort of revolution
  7. Iain Duncan-Smith’s Universal Credit failure explained in one simple chart
  8. Two charts that explain why old people keep getting free stuff. Pensioner benefits will cost taxpayers yet more billions. Here’s why
  9. Ukip and the hard-Left are both blinded by Tory hatred. The Left’s rhetoric has become as toxic as that of the hard-Right
  10. Will Northern Ireland’s culture wars kill power-sharing? Westminster’s general indifference to what goes on in Northern Ireland is blinding it to the fact that the political process there is rapidly losing momentum.
  11. Head of Tristram Hunt’s old school criticises Labour’s ‘bigoted’ attack on private education, says Labour must spend more time raising standards in state education rather than relying on the fee-paying sector
  12. How can we tackle the “social apartheid” in Britain’s education system?
  13. When conspiracy theories enter the mainstream, it’s time to worry. Secret oil fields in the North Sea, ‘powerful forces’ conspiring against Ed Miliband, the EU to blame for Russia pouring arms into Ukraine. Enough already
  14. Save the Children staff furious over ‘global legacy’ award for Tony Blair
  15. Pope Francis calls Europe an ‘elderly and haggard’ grandmother
  16. Frenchman develops pills to make flatulence smell of roses. 65-year-old inventor says he came up with his range of indigestion tablets after he was “nearly suffocated” by the smell of farts
  17. YouGov polling on orgasms finds Most women have faked it – and so have 1 in 5 men
  18. 12 German Proverbs, Translated Literally. Remember: “Only the hard come in the garden”
  19. 2,057 years ago, the Second Triumvirate was formed

TSE



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And the winner of the PB Rochester and Strood competition is…..

November 25th, 2014

N.Simms with the winning entry “UKIP by 7.26%”

This was 0.02% short of the actual margin of 7.28% and the winner got closest. Congratulations.

The winner will receive a copy of the new book edited by Philip Cowley and Rob Ford Sex Lies & The Ballot Box” which was launched earlier this month and has attracted a fair bit of publicity.

Congratulations.

Thanks to Mark Hopkins of www.nojam.com for creating the structure for this competition. It has worked well and we’ll be using it again.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Scoping the scale and geography of Labour’s Scottish collapse – hopefully we’ll get some constituency polling this week

November 25th, 2014

One of the big unknowns about GE2015 is how Labour is going to fare in Scotland where at GE2010 it retained 41 of the 59 Westminster seats. Clearly anything that could erode that total could have massive impact on the overall outcome.

There have only been three Scotland only polls in the past eight weeks all of them suggesting that EdM’s party is in serious trouble and could possibly lose a lot of seats while it is making inroads in England and Wales.

There’s little doubt that the IndyRef had changed the political weather there – the big question is what will be the impact on individual seats?

    There are so many different areas for analysis. Is the SNP explosion an even all Scotland experience or are there certain types of seats, those where IndyRef YES did particularly well for instance, where the SNP is making the most progress?

Thankfully Lord Ashcroft is including some Scottish seats in his programme of single constituency polling the next batch of which is expected to be made public in the next few days. I don’t know whether the Scottish dimension will be looked at in this round but it is coming.

One feature of the Ashcroft constituency polling is the two stage voting intention questioning which we’ve talked a lot about here. After the standard one a second constituency specific question is put and this can produce very different outcomes. Elements like the incumbency impact or tactical voting can show up.

One seat I’m really hoping to see included is Danny Alexander’s Inverness which in the past had been a four way marginal with the winner securing not much more than a quarter of the vote.

Whatever I’m hoping that our understanding of the coming election will be greatly enhanced by the next round.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Labour’s Scottish crisis is masking what could be even more significant – the Tory collapse in England

November 24th, 2014

By my reckoning this is an 8.5% CON-LAB swing

A great feature of the weekly Ashcroft National Poll is that it shows a separate voting split for England where 533 of the 650 constituencies are including the vast bulk of the marginals.

This was “won” by Cameron’s Conservatives overwhelmingly in 2010 making net gains of more than 90 and forming the bedrock of their overall positive outcome. The party secured 39.2% of the English vote against Labour’s 28.1. The poll today has LAB with a 6% lead in England thus suggesting an 8.5% swing to it from the blues since the last general election.

This is far far larger than anything we have seen for quite some time in the full GB polls.

One factor is that it is in England where UKIP has prospered most and, indeed, Farage’s party has 22% in today’s survey.

What strikes me is that the inclusion of Wales and mostly Scotland in the GB figures mean that the UKIP surge has been understated in the part of the UK where 95% of the LAB-CON marginals are.

Whatever it is good to have a weekly source of England only voting shares.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON trailing by 5%

November 24th, 2014

But these are the most dramatic figures of all

This is starting to get serious for the blue team

As usual at 4pm on Monday Lord Ashcroft publishes his latest weekly national phone poll and today’s show the LAB lead moving to 5%.

The followed this morning’s Monday Populus online poll that had Lab 36 (=) Con 31 (-2), LD 9 (=), UKIP 15.(+1) So both today’s surveys have comfortable margins for EdM’s team which if it wasn’t for the current problems north of the border would point to a solid majority on May 7th.

It’s that Scottish uncertainty that is dominating things. LAB needs to have bigger GB leads than 5% to be sure of a majority without his current total of 41 Scottish MPs.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble