politicalbetting.com

Following on from the previous thread, does recent polling make a Tory/UKIP more likely or less likely?

POPULUS

It found that only 21 per cent are “positive” about Britain’s membership of Europe, while 31 per cent say they are “negative” and think the country would be better off leaving.

However, 23 per cent who are negative about UK membership still think Britain would be worse off leaving the EU, while 25 per cent do not have a strong view either way.

This means the 44 per cent believing that Britain should stay in the EU outweigh the 31 per cent who want withdrawal — meaning that a referendum victory for an “out” campaign would be far from certain.

Furthermore, 54 per cent of voters said the current eurozone crisis “makes me less confident that the UK could or would prosper if it withdrew from the EU”.

COMRES

26% of Tory voters are “seriously considering” voting for the UK Independence Party.

If a referendum were held on Britain’s membership of the EU, I would vote for Britain to leave the EU

Agree 46%

Disagree 30%

Half (51%) of Conservative voters agree, compared with 42% of Labour voters and 39% of Lib Dem voters.

Compare the 54-34% split in recent British Election Study (disapprove-approve of EU membership).

Excluding don’t knows, this suggests a 61-39% vote to end Britain’s membership of the EU.

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.

In the Spectator today, Nigel Farage raises the possibility of joint Conservative/UKIP candidates at the next election.

He says

“What I do know is there are Conservative associations up and down the country who think this could be a way forward.

“All I would say to you is that in terms of co-operation or deals or anything in the future, firstly it’s some way off. But secondly, I can see that there are associations thinking along these lines. If they approach us, would I entertain and contemplate such ideas? Of course I would.”

Farage also makes clear his contempt and scorn for David Cameron.

“He’s a committed warmist and he wants to build wind turbines all over Britain. He’s so committed to the EU that he doesn’t want to have a referendum in case we give the wrong answer and he sees no difficulties at all with mass immigration – it’s cheaper chauffeurs and gardeners and nannies. He completely has turned his back on the concept of grammar schools to give people from poorer backgrounds the opportunity to get on.”

If you’re a Tory MP, in a marginal seat, or an association/candidate in a target seat that Tories need to win to achieve a majority, then Farage’s potential offer seems very attractive, especially with UKIP polling at nearly 10% and outpolling the the Lib Dems in some instances. 

But how will David Cameron and the rest of the leadership act, if MPs, candidates and associations start approaching UKIP?

The other variable in this is, if Labour promise in their manifesto an in/out referendum, as 81 Conservative MPs recently rebelled on the issue. 

The issue of Europe could yet cause as much problems for David Cameron as it did to the Premierships of Margaret Thatcher and John Major.

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.

Welcome once again to PB’s overnight open thread in the relaxing atmosphere of the PB NightHawks cafe.

Catching up with PMQs, the most memorable exchange was The Prime Minister referring to Ed Balls as “A muttering idiot”

It went down well with the Tory Backbenchers (as did Calm Down Dear)

But is this something Cameron should avoid doing, will it enhance the Flashman meme?

Link to the exchange here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=W3YjCudUpIk

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.