Does the boss of ICM have a point?

Alex Salmond announced on Wednesday that his “straightforward” question for the Scottish referendum was: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

This has now been scrutinized by academic and polling experts who are saying that it is leading and suggest that it is designed to get a particular outcome.

According to the Telegraph the boss of ICM, Martin Boon, said the question was simple but added that his company would “refuse” to ask it as it stands.

“This is cheeky really – it suggests that ‘we all agree, don’t you?’ In short, if this were asked in the context of an opinion poll, I would expect to receive some condemnation for it being deemed as imbalanced, loaded and unfair”

It’s suggested Salmond’s wording had obviously been the subject of extensive SNP polling to register the most favourable possible result.

Also quoted is Prof John Curtice, who said: “It would have been fairer to ask ‘should Scotland become independent’ rather than ‘do you agree’. In everyday conversation people are inclined to say they agree than don’t agree.”

This one will run.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Was the latest debate Gingrich’s last stand?

These were the reactions of Nate Silver, the prominent US election and polling analyst, to the final TV debate in Florida ahead of next Tuesday’s primary.

Grades (strategy/execution): Romney (A/A); Santorum (A-/A); Paul (B-/C); Gingrich (D-/B)

— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 27, 2012

Could envision an outcome in Florida like Romney 45, Gingrich 25, Santorum 20,Paul 10

— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 27, 2012

There’s little doubt that the big loser was last weekend’s winner in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich. This was his last real opportunity to edge back into the Florida race and he flunked it. He appeared inadequate, mean-minded and somehow out of his depth. It’s hard now to envisage him staying the course.

It was left to the victor of Iowa, Rick Santorum, to take on the Romney band-wagon and he didn’t miss his opportunity. He landed a number of blows and he was the only one to seriously worry the ex-governor of Massachusetts.

Could he now get the polling bounce and take over the mantle as the “Anyone But Mitt” (ABM) choice? The latest polling has him in the 8-12% range so Nate’s prediction of 20% is quite a big jump.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Thursdays are generally more interesting than usual. We have Question Time on BBC1, the council by-elections as well as, tonight, the final TV debate between the GOP candidates in Florida. We also have the final YouGov daily poll of the week.

Share your thoughts here in the PB NightHawks Cafe.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH