Yes, you did read that headline correctly, it wasn’t a typo, I am going to discuss whether the Lib Dems can make net gains in parliamentary seats at the 2015 General election, which might seem odd, given the Lib Dems current travails in the polls.

Since the start of April, of the 37 polls conducted by YouGov, the Lib Dems have only led UKIP in four of them, averaging 10.4% to UKIP’s 12.8% in that period.

In the 16 non YouGov polls published since April, The Lib Dems have only led UKIP in one poll, that was the April ICM poll for the Guardian, where they led UKIP by 6%, by the time of May Guardian ICM poll, UKIP led the Lib Dems by 7% in that poll.

In these non YouGov polls, the Lib Dems averaged 9.4% to UKIP’s 16.1%

So why am I suggesting the Lib Dems could make net gains at the next election?

It was said UKIP cost the Tories anywhere from 5 to 10 seats in the 2010 General Election.

That was when they polled a little over 3% nationwide in The General Election.

Just imagine how many seats they can cost the Conservatives if they poll on election day anything like they are currently polling.

Even if they poll on election day half of what they are currently polling with ICM, that would be 9%, three times what they achieved in 2010.

There is evidence that UKIP surge is coming disproportionately from people who voted Conservative in 2010, per the ICM poll for the Guardian this month

Over a quarter of Cameron’s 2010 backers, 27%, had switched to Ukip by May. Some 13% of 2010 Labour supporters have gone the same way, together with 12% of 2010 Lib Dems.

(I’m making the assumption that the UKIP will do better in the South of England, than in other parts of the UK, hence the focus on the Southern seats)

The graph below shows the number of seats in the South of England where the Tories are the incumbents, the Lib Dems are second and the majority is less than 10%.

You can see exactly what seats could be in the Lib Dem sights here

If UKIP maintain their current polling performance at the General Election, then those seats have the potential to become gains for the Lib Dems.

There is precedent for the nationwide Lib Dem share of the vote to decline, but for the seat numbers to go up. In the 1997 General Election, the Lib Dem share of the vote declined by 1%, but in terms of seats, they went from 18 MPs to 46 MPs.

At the last General Election, the Lib Dem share of the vote went up 1%, but they suffered a net loss in seats, going from having 62 MPs to 57 MPs.

The Eastleigh by-election showed how effective the Lib Dem ground game is, particularly in the seats they hold, as Lord Ashcroft noted in January

The Lib Dems will almost certainly do better on the day than their poll numbers currently suggest, since local factors and popular MPs are a more important part of their appeal.

A few weeks prior to the by-election, the Lib Dems were polling 7% with phone pollster Mori, and trailing UKIP.

The irony that a mixture of first past the post and UKIP, could benefit the Lib Dems, will not be lost on some.

Currently the Lib Dems have 57 MPs, Ladbrokes have the following odds on the Lib Dem seat ranges at the next General Election

• 0-10, 12/1
• 11-20, 5/1
• 21-30, 4/1
• 31-40, 3/1
• 41-50, 4/1
• 51-60, 10/1
• 61-70, 20/1
• 71+, 10/1

The 51+ odds look enticing to me.

TSE

Just to say that I’m off on my holidays tomorrow and this should be the last post from me till a fortnight on Monday.

We are heading for Italy and will be staying in Milan, Sorrento, Lecce and Bologna. We’ve never been to Pompei before and that should be a highlight of the first week.

The site is in the capable hands of TSE.

Mike Smithson

Why do we hear so little about Caroline Lucas?

The election of Caroline Lucas in 2010 was in many ways quite extraordinary. In winning a three-way marginal seat she succeeded where UKIP have so far failed. Lucas is intelligent, thoughtful and charismatic. Yet the Greens simply have not capitalised.

At a time when the Labour Party is saying as little as possible about its policy plans, you’d think there was a hole for the Green Party’s national no nonsense opposition to austerity to fill. Instead a lot of enthusiasm generated comes from new non-party groups like UK Uncut and 38 Degrees. The idea of any further Green MPs being elected in 2015 currently looks remote.

In contrast there isn’t a week that goes by the UKIP isn’t in the headlines or are on a political show. The Greens barely get a mention. Why is that? Is it all down to woeful press management or the prejudices of our newspaper owners who help set the agenda? In a ‘digital’ age this shouldn’t be as significant.

The decision by Caroline Lucas to stand down as leader last year is a peculiar one. The SNP and UKIP have all seen their support drop when their popular leader has made way for others to step forward. Smaller parties tend to be more ideologically pure, yet overlook the fact that the personality of the leader can go a long way. Yet even when Lucas was also leader the party struggled to build momentum from 2010.

We’ve been here before with the Greens making breakthroughs that weren’t sustained. In 1989 the Green Party won 15% of the vote in the European elections. As a party of protest they became eclipsed by the Lib Dems and in the next European elections they picked up just 3%.

But now the yellow team are in a controversial Coalition you’d think the Greens would be in their element? The Tories who once urged ‘vote Blue, go green’ have failed to fulfil their environmental potential. Just where is the opposition from the Greens?

As UK political support fractures into four or five different ways, it is  hard to explain why the Green Party aren’t doing better. There should be some serious soul-searching from the party nationally. But I don’t detect any.

Henry G Manson

Ukip drop to 13%

The latest YouGov daily poll is out and sees the Tories still in the doldrums below the 30 mark. The comparisons in the chart above are with a week ago which was before the reported “swivel eyed loons” that a senior CON figure was said to have made about party activists.

The firm has tended to show show better than average figures for the Tories and today’s numbers suggest that the bad press they’ve been having is continuing to have an impact.

The Ukip figure, from a pollster that has been recording lower shares, is down at 13%. My view is that YouGov’s lack of a turnout weighting is the main factor why it can appear to be out of line.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Whitwell on Bolsover

Last Local Election 2011: Lab 32, Ind 4, Green 1 (Labour majority of 25)

To view the result in 2011 please visit http://s3.datawrapper.de/BIZMe/

Dennis Skinner MP (Lab, Bolsover) has become as much of the Parliamentary Estate as Black Rod and the Speaker. Famed for his comments at each State Opening, is it any wonder that he has been named the “Beast of Bolsover” and was even immortalised in the CBBC comedy drama “Maid Marian and Her Merry Men” when the Beast of Bolsover (and his companion the “Nuisance of Nuneaton”) came into Worksop to make trouble. Whether it is Mr. Skinner’s parliamentary antics that help re-elect him each time or the solid hold on Bolsover by Labour is tricky to tell, but Labour’s hold on Bolsover is near total. In the 2003 local elections only six seats did not elect a Labour councillor, that figure increased to ten in 2007 (thanks in part to the decline in the Labour vote at Tony Blair’s last set of local elections), but normal service was resumed in 2011 when only five seats did not elect a Labour councillor, however as we have seen in the past having a virtual one party state does not mean that Labour can rest on their laurels (especially in a ward with a strong Ratepayer vote)

This will give you hours of psephological fun!

Biteback has generously agreed to give copy of the latest volume by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, called “British Electoral Facts 1832-2012″ as a PB competition prize.

The book is an amazing treasure trove and my copy sits almost permanently on my desk.

All you have to do is guess the CON and Ukip shares in the June Guardian ICM poll.

The closest forecast will win.

As with all PB competitions my rulings are final.

Use the thread below to make your entry.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Thursday’s Sun front page – “We killed this British soldier. It’s an eye for an eye” #tomorrowspaperstoday #Woolwich twitter.com/suttonnick/sta…

— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) May 22, 2013

This is the opportunity for Cameron to rise to the occasion. Will he?

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 23, 2013

PaddyPower CON leadership challenge prices. bit.ly/I8PkIOSee twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2013